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1BkNALwlgS0 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1BkNALwlgS0 | 2024-07-08 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Piper Sandler strategist explains why he's dropping his S&P 500 price target | the S&P 500 up over 16% so far this year and closing Friday at its 34th record high of the year that run is many firms boosting their year on targets for the S&P 500 but One bank has decided to drop coverage of the index all together actually dropping their coverage of their year-end Target for the index behind that call we have Michael cantrowitz he's Piper Sandler's co-chief investment strategist Michael thanks so much for being here I want to pull up a quote from your note on this you say talking about the S&P 500 to communicate investment insights to investors has become an exercise in futility I was giggling when this note came out because you definitely sound a little bit peeved by the AI rally is that what drove this call no no not not at all and it's not a change to my views you know we've been bullish all year and I'm still constructive on on larger cap equities it's more about you know in the last few months as I was trying to think about raising my target again um I didn't really feel feel that comfortable being intellectually honest saying that I can have a high conviction view of where the S&P is going to end up nor do I did I think it really adds value to our clients who are institutional investors who it's not about whether the Market's going up or down but really what you have to own and what you have to avoid and we've seen correlations of stocks within the S&P 500 Dro to about a 25e low uh compared to the 500 so there's really there diminishing value when talking about the market because uh again most stocks are not trading like the market and Michael given that I guess for investors out there trying to figure out what happens next you are still constructive on us equities you do still see opportunities so if it's not within or you don't think maybe it's helpful for investors to have a bull versus be call right now on the S&P 500 what should investors be looking for what are some of the more helpful views that you think at this point that tell us a better story about where that opportunity is sure yeah and again it's not I think you have to have a bullish and bearish View and and we are bullish um but you know again if I covered apple or Microsoft and I was bullish on apple or Microsoft and said you know you know the conclusion is clear go buy apple or Microsoft if you're bullish on the S&P 500 this year for an Institutional Investor that's not buying the index well how does that really help them because you look at the market this year we're up 16 177% typically that much of a rally would would come along with massive risk on leadership small caps outperforming and small caps as we sit here year-to date have have returned zero uh and so we've been focused on where to invest and for the last two years we've been big bulls on larger quality profitable names that essentially if economy is a scale that can sustain their businesses uh the the best amidst this higher interest rate environment and so it's still very much a large cap growth call avoiding smaller companies with weaker fundamentals yeah I I heard you mention quality and I want to jump in on that because you say that you continue to emphasize quality at a reasonable price where does that exist because isn't part of the problem the fact that quality valuations have really been bit up since the bottom in late 2022 yeah well much of the the the increase in valuations from late 2022 was just a recapture of the evaluations that were lost during that bare market so really that was much of 23 just kind of a give back uh on the 2022 bare Market from here we haven't seen as much of a rapid Improvement in valuations this year uh at the index level again certain stocks have seen PE expansion so we're looking for companies that have continued to um outpace their peers in terms of earnings growth uh that are have the highest level of profitability and we're looking for those two types of attributes along with companies that have valuations that are not the most expensive expensive so it's you kind of have to sacrifice a little bit of growth perhaps in quality to find names that aren't egregiously expensive but it's that sweet spot which we call Quality a reasonable price and and we've got in the S&P 500 50 names that have beaten the index this year uh and it's not just about all AI or All Tech |
ropAfjVczgs | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ropAfjVczgs | 2024-07-05 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Could Gladiator II and Wicked be the next 'Barbenheimer'? | but we begin here with the summer box office which is heating up with sequels leading Fourth of July weekend inside out to is crossing the $500 million Mark domestically and Despicable Me for opening strong on Wednesday with a gross of $27 million we could also see a potential barbin Heimer 2.0 later this year from more on the state of the box office we're bringing in Paul D Dar garbedian senior media Analyst at comcore Paul it is good to see you so maybe to start off kind of big picture here Paul you know the box office this summer how we doing Paul how healthy does it look to you relative to what we saw last summer well Josh if we were sitting here about a month and a half ago I would have said well it's pretty bad because we got off to a rather slow start for the summer of 2024 with the Fall Guy a great movie but opened to 27 and a half million compare and contrast that with the opening weekend of the summer in 23 with Guardians of the Galaxy volume 3 opening to $118 million we then had a rather slow Memorial weekend and by rather slow I mean one of the slowest Memorial weekends at the box office in history but what a difference a month or a month and a half can make and uh we saw signs of life in early June with bad boys ride or die opening uh Beyond expectations at about 57.5 million but then the big one inside out too it opened about four weekends Z go it's coming into its fourth weekend that film's at $1.12 billion in global box office as we speak Josh pretty and we and now we have Despicable me4 uh already has earned almost $50 million domestically heading into its first weekend having open on Wednesday uh those that the two-day number is close to 50 million we're expecting perhaps another 80 million at com score this weekend for that film and that could be 120 130 million opening 5 days for Despicable me4 so it is the summer of sequels no doubt more to come so sound like summer sequels and maybe some better performances than than maybe someone had initially expected Paul I'm just curious when you when you do though look at the overall box office the industry poll how does it Stack Up pre pandemic yeah that's a that's a different story and it it really is the impact of of course the pandemic impacted everything in terms of box office but we're we're definitely recovering but then strikes hit and that threw the release calendar into disarray and that effectively kind of um you know it disrupted the calendar so much this year that we really didn't get started in terms of big box office to early June I mean we had some big movies early on like Dune Dune 2 and others but we the comparisons to last year were really tough so right now we're running about 18.8% behind last year year to date at this point but just just about 6 weeks ago we were running down near we were down nearly 28% so in the court what a difference a few movies and some time makes in terms of knocking down that year-to-date deficit of course we have twisters on the way Deadpool in Wolverine is going to be a the next hundred million opener of 2024 and inside out too so far the only movie to open with over $100 million domestically this year but that's going to change here with uh Deadpool and Wolverine and Twisters I think is a total sleeper although maybe not now cuz we're talking about it do you think Paul though something kind of structurally has changed though just bigger picture there's just so much good content now at home right I mean what I can stream you know thanks to for example Netflix I don't know if you saw it I mean baby reindeer amazing Paul right rip Ripley incredible and I don't own Netflix stock just for viewers this is pure pure you know pure neutral reviews by Jos but it's such good content Paul that's available now to the consumer how much just harder it is to get Josh Lipton off his couch to schlep to a theater which by the way isn't all that cheap either well I think it's relatively an expensive to other outside of the home activities if you look at traveling you know to another uh State country island somewhere um it's very expensive to travel also sporting events uh concerts very expensive if families are taking themselves and all the kids out this weekend to to see Despicable Me for or inside out too again it's a relative bargain but appropo to what you asked I think there is more selectivity on the part of consumers who have so much choice and you just mentioned a lot of great shows I love streaming as well but you're not going to sit out going to the movie theater for a movie like Dune 2 Inside Out 2 Despicable Me 4 I mean really is that differentiator is that communal and immersive experience in theater but I agree with you it takes a lot more to get people off their couch and out to the movie theater but when it happens I mean look at barbin Heimer last year that phenomenon you alluded to this in your opening was that you know Wicked and Gladiator 2 are opening on the same day November 22nd could there be another barbin Heimer in the offing I don't know that anything will be that but certainly it's cool to have those two movies and you know opening on that same date and it creates a conversation around going to the movies that's something you can only get going out to the movie theater it's that communal experience it also these experiences go viral I mean the movie theater is a hub of social influence and we saw that play out with Barbie last year certainly and Oppenheimer and there's more good movies on the way I think the fall and holiday are really loaded with great films you got another Joker film coming out you got Moana 2 which was going to go streaming now going to the committed to the movie theater a lot of other great movies that mix Wicked Gladiator 2 among others all right Paul you you convinced me maybe I need to get out of the house more I have to get out the house more often my wife tells me the same thing Paul thank you so much for joining us have a great weekend thank you Josh you too have a good one |
FhD92Ypz-qE | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FhD92Ypz-qE | 2024-07-05 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Megacaps, Japanese bonds, crypto: Market trends this week | the S&P 500 NASDAQ post record closes to end this holiday shortened week investors embracing the idea that the June jobs report may push the FED closer to that rate cut Yahoo finances Jared blicker joins us here with more on the trading day takeaways Jared well thank you Josh I think the mega caps you know we talk about concentration you can't talk about it enough so I'm saying record Mega cap highs we had four today amid Christmas and July that's a reference to this seasonality this bullish seasonality that we've had so I'm not going to show any any seasonality Maps but I do want to show the mega caps and four out of the four out of the seven Magnificent Seven posted records today Microsoft alphabet apple and meta Amazon just missed it by less than a dollar in vide read there but I just think that kind of tells the whole story there we have this bullish seasonality and what do markets have the tenacity to do go higher and that's what we're saying is it just big Tech Jared is that all we have no and no it's more to the story well you know I've been seeing software catch up recently so I like igv as a software ETF that just is just shy of record high so we are seeing it's kind of spread into some other areas but is software that different from Tech you know the whole AI story um let me just show you this is the NASDAQ 100 versus a Russell 2000 this goes all the way back to the late 1980s here is the dotc bubble and what you will notice is we are higher so small caps are even at less valuation premium to the large caps and I'm using the NASDAQ 100 and the Russell 2000 proxies then that Tech bubble that we had 24 years ago so something is a little bit different all right Jared blre Point number two intervention is it NY in Japan the NY you don't hear that word very often you don't hear you know what also I like y intervention you could just make a portm out of that um I did bring some charts and here we have the Japanese 10-year bond versus its target range so in purple we have the bond this goes back to 2016 2017 and these blue dotted lines that is the Bank of Japan that's where they're trying to keep it contained as you'll notice here they're not really keeping it contained they keep trying to keep it in there but uh then they are forced to capitulate and as they are playing this as this is playing out the Yen has been weakening the Yen has been we talk to me about the Yen how's that playing to the story the Yen has been weakening to levels that we haven't seen since 1986 so this is the US dollar versus the Yen um and let me put a Max chart on so you'll see this goes back to the late 1990s um and here we are we are at the highest point that we've seen on this entire chart Torsten slock Apollo Chief uh Global Economist he says that the Yen would be at 140 it's at 160 now uh it would be at 140 if the if the bank of Japan were not pulling all these levers so there's a big there's a big dislocation in there and the worry is is that there's this dislocation that kind of hits the market all at once you spread things out generally it's okay but sometimes uh you get you hit some problems here if it all comes at once last blicker point you know we got to talk about crypto crypto never sleeps and we are facing another what two day 48 Hours here without prices in in but not in crypto so I've been tracking this crypto crash that we've had kind of a big deal because Bitcoin itself has broken through a trading range that is held for seven several months here I'm going to get our crypto heat map up and there we go so you'll see Bitcoin in the red for 3% uh it kind of broke down yesterday and we got this news about monox we also have Germany all in all something like bearish headlines y short 190,000 Bitcoins so you multiply this price times 190,000 you're going to get 10 billion something like that that is a potential maximum amount of selling that's going to hit the market doesn't mean it's all going to happen at once but I think it's instructive that we are breaking down through this range so Bitcoin kind of famous for false breakdowns if we're back above 60,000 by m I would say that's another one but probably that is not my base case so I think we're in some for a little bit more prolonged downturn here with respect to crypto overall all right levels to watch thank you Jared appreciate it |
_1WulF82JMw | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_1WulF82JMw | 2024-07-05 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Fed likely to have short and shallow rate-cutting cycle, strategist says | all right let's get another perspective here because joining us to help us break down this 4day trading week which include a couple of fresh record highs is Kayla Cedar State Street Global markets macro multi-asset strategies Kayla it is good to see you it seemed like Kayla um what you're suggesting is when you looked at the the big jobs report today and other you know economic data you've been reviewing you seem to be saying Kayla you've seen economy that okay it's cooling it's moderating but it's still in your opinion looking fairly and relatively resilient and strong here yeah thank you so much for having me you know I think that's to that's definitely right we have this kind of moderation that's going on um this uh direction towards moderation but the actual level is still quite strong and so you know I think what that means is as we're assessing this data we have to put some of this moderation into context and so yes you have um a headline figure in the NFP print today uh that was still above preco Norms but then you do see some signs of weakness underneath however if we take a step back wage growth is still quite strong jolts data implies that you know there are more job available job openings rather than there are folks unemployed and so when you bring this back to monetary policy yes this means September is live but thus far it looks like the economy is still perhaps too strong to or expect a cut uh in the near term you think it's just too strong period and we might see a risk of re acceleration up which would mean maybe the FED is on pause a lot longer than people thought or gasp even has to raise rates that seemed to be a possibility a few months ago but admittedly it's been priced uh down quite a bit from then yeah you know I think it has been priced down because the data has started to move in the direction towards easing and Moder ation so that means that the bar for a hike is higher than the bar for a cut with that said though I think you point out a really important uh factor to consider is that the FED certainly does not want to cut and then have to hike again and so I think that's why when we look at the underlying data especially in the CPI prints we want to start to see services and housing make progress back towards 2% uh because otherwise there is that risk of reacceleration Kayla another big economic data point next week CPI what are you looking for there Kayla what's your what's your expectation yeah you know one thing that we have uh insight into at State Street is we have price stats which is a daily measure of goods inflation and so when we look at the progress made on Goods inflation thus far that's really what has led a lot of this disinflationary move lower and so I think that means two things one we need to start seeing see more progress on the services and housing side and we also can't see Goods re accelerate and so what we're seeing thus far is that Goods inflation is continuing to move lower we are seeing disinflation continue and so that's a good sign moving into next week but again we also really need to start seeing uh those housing Oar figures start to come down and we'll also be looking for uh a continuation lower in super core as well what are the big macro headlines that you might be a little bit concerned about things uh not necessarily front and center right now could be geopolitics could be election but things uh that might cause some uh perturbances in the market uh in the months to come you know I think the market does have this habit of getting ahead of itself and so that's what makes this transmission of or um I would say this movement in some of the data hard to Grapple with because we do see weakening but is is it weakness and so I would caution folks from getting too excited about some signs of moderation and interpreting it as weakness and expecting too many Cuts unless we're really going to start pricing in a recession which thus far looks unlikely um it's going to be hard for the FED to really deliver this really um this large magnitude of cuts and so it's much more likely I think that we're going to see a shorter and relatively shallow cutting cycle so Kayla added up for giving your view of the economy and the FED uh for investors listening right now and the stock market Kayla what do you prefer yeah I really prefer still large cap quality growth which really still means Tech as we approach earning season which is going to be kicking off next week it really does look like Tech is where majority of the earnings growth is going to be as we look forward to the rest of the year expectations are that earnings will continue to accelerate but revenues will decelerate a little bit and so when we think about okay what does that mean for sector allocation that's really an okay story for for Tech because what that means is they can still support profit margins without some of this Revenue growth given their borrowing costs given their cash flows things like that and so they're very well uh bolstered to navigate that kind of environment all right got to leave it there but appreciate your insights here on this quiet Friday afternoon thank you Kayla thanks so much for having me |
npoPiUrZm5U | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=npoPiUrZm5U | 2024-07-07 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Auto industry still on track for an electrified future: Analyst | [Music] automakers reporting modest sales growth GM reporting its best quarterly sales in more than three years Tesla seeing sales Fall less than expected for the second quarter however looking to the second half of the year the road ahead for automakers may be a Rocky one Cox Automotive executive analyst and senior director of Economic and Industry insights Aaron keing joins us now to discuss Erin is good to see you so um maybe eron start big picture you know we did just hear as we mentioned uh from G and Ford and Tesla um just the 30,000 foot view Aaron when you look at the US Auto industry how healthy how how strong does it look to you you know I think we actually have to put it in perspective and and so far I think we're seeing a pretty good year we all knew that the uncertainty with the election the climate the interest rates keeping at high levels that we were going to be seeing potentially a slow growth this year um certainly the cdk outage in June didn't necessarily help us the fact that the oems or the automakers have not come in with really high incentives um like they were in the pre- pandemic I think we're doing pretty well what are margins looking like we're talking about increased incentives here we know that the automakers like to uh provide a little juice for the customers from time to time how were margins fairing so admittedly with then Cox Automotive we don't get terribly deep into the financials of the automakers um but again we're seeing them starting to loosen some of the the financial space they have on the cars as they try to move more metal off the parking lot so we are going to we are anticipating that we'll see some more incentives coming forward um there's a lot of rate suspenion that's having to happen right now because of the high interest rates so we're hoping that they'll be able to give a little bit more of this back it may come a little bit from the dealers margin and a little bit of sharing from the O automakers uh margin as well Aaron let's talk about a trend we talk we discussed a lot here EV sales growth Aaron um not what it used to be I'm interested the reasons you see for that aand and what you think it would take to kind of jump start that well I think you know what we have to remember is that some of the decline or a lot of the decline is actually coming out of Tesla's share they were primarily the biggest um competitor in the market the only competitor in the market for a long time outside of Nissan and Chevy um but we see a lot more competitors coming in with some really compelling product as well as good incentives and of course the tax credit so I don't see that we say EV demand it's completely falling off a cliff or anything it's normalizing and so as we see Tesla start to drop share that's not alarming around the entire message for EVS because the rest of the brands are actually starting to really lift in their EV sales so while we may not be at 10% this year um we're going to hit awfully close to it more hybrids are being sold more pads are being sold this is all good for the transition to um fully electrified vehicles in the future so I'd say that we're still on a path to getting to an electrified future it's just going to take us a little bit longer and we're really excited about the fact that we finally have some additional players in the market providing some really good options for consumers let's talk about the the some of those players in the market right now um I was just looking at the Wi-Fi interactive I know you don't comment on stock prices but what I'm going to show illustrates uh the big versus the small these is this is a year-to-date um performance for a bunch of EV stocks and Tesla just became positive today actually but GM is up 30% Toyota is up 12% byd is up 9% and then these little a lot of the smaller players uh in EV just are not doing it rivan 37% Lucid Motors down 30% admittedly China's its own story but what do you think the difference is between some of the the outperformance of these big guys versus the little guys I think it's I think it's precisely that a story of the big guys versus the little guys I do think that we anticipate rivan starting to get a little bit more under its feet um especially with its new tie-up with Volkswagen um and I do think that the automotive Market will have to balance itself out I mean a lot of people forget that at the beginning of the last century I think we had over what a thousand automakers you know it whittles down so I think we may see more consolidation or more collaboration amongst some of the OEM um and meaning some of the really small players might get swallowed up perhaps a lot of them over in uh in China but even when you saw the Volkswagen and rivian announcement you see where they're starting to realize that collaboration in some areas is actually good for you know the rising tide helps all All Ships and of course we may see a few like we saw with Fisker filing for bankruptcy some of them will go away from the market and that's okay that's the speed of competition right Aaron uh get you this you know we talked about EVS I also want to know what's going on with trucks Aaron broadly I mean what are the what are the trends and themes you're seeing there so broadly I mean trucks still make up a majority of our sales um but we are seeing that the smaller sub or compact um SUVs compact trucks and of course sedans are starting to have a little bit of a a Renaissance here where there a couple you know their share is going up just a little bit but I don't see that we're going to transition to um going back where cidan are the primary winner in this market um so trucks are doing okay uh they are stabilized um but we are seeing that the lower cost Vehicles which tend to be the smaller vehicles are certainly pushing up in sales and again that comes back to the affordability challenge that we're seeing in the market that if they need a car they need four wheels they'll take what they can get and if that happens to be a little bit smaller than they anticipated or wanted then that's what they'll grab for the new or used car and we will leave it there eron keing thank you sure no problem |
yqOL2uODzOE | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yqOL2uODzOE | 2024-07-06 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Fed is 'more focused' on core PCE than jobs data: Strategist | moving on the fixed income Market could get interesting this election season Following last week's presidential debate The Benchmark 10e yield Rose six points to 434 we're looking at how to navigate the big picture on bonds with the Yahoo finance Playbook and joining us now to discuss is Kevin Nicholson Riverfront Investment Group Global fixed income CIO Kevin it's good to see you so actually I'm interested to get your take first of all on just the big economic news today that jobs report Kevin what did you make of it what do you think the FED makes of it I didn't make a whole lot of it because we've got a lot of gotten a lot of mixed data over the last couple of weeks uh as far as the fed's concern I think that the FED will look at that information however the FED is more focused on uh core pce and I I think that that's where their focus is going to be uh it core PC dipped in May um and only Rose uh uh what was it uh 0.1 uh 0.1% month over month um however in June uh it's supposed to rise it's forecast to rise at 0. 21% month over month and then in July at 022 percent uh month over month so if you just hold that uh June level um for the rest of the year you're going to get core pce at 2.95% and I think that is more important um to the FED than the jobs report right now we got the tenure uh it was only it was at 4 and 1.5% a few days ago now it's closer to 4.25 % just a couple bips away and there you see a year to-day chart just wondering where do you think the 10e stops now so it's been traveling down for a few days do we get support at 4.25% what does this mean for the market well I think that if we're going to see the 10year drop below that we need to from a technical standpoint it needs to break through 420 and uh thus far it hasn't been able to do that um I think that in order for the tene to go lower you're going to have to see something break or we're going to uh have to uh have a more riskof um Market um right now I think that the 10e is pretty much range bound um between four and four and a half perc uh for the second half of the year I think that if if we get um the FED to um pull back and and and delay their rate Cuts we'll see the 10year go back into that 435 to 450 range um however if they do begin to cut I think that we're going to be closer to the bottom end of my range of 4% closer to 4% um by year end so Kevin let's see you're watching right now you're a viewer you're invested in treasuries what's your advice Kevin what's your guidance so we own treasuries in our portfolios but it's at the back end of the curve and and we did that through actually through strips um but for the uh General portion of our portfolio and the uh we would actually look at the three two 10 year part of the curve we like taking credit risk over interest rate risk so we want to buy those corporate those um companies um bonds that uh are that are investment grade that are going to give us an additional yield of about a 100 basis points on in the investment grade World um so we want to lock in yields that are above 5% um and then in the non-investment grade world when we think about high yield we want to stay at the front end of the curve but we want to be able to get you know pick up incremental you know 300 basis points or so um and we only recommend a high yield for those clients that have a longer time Horizon Beyond five years for the client that has a Time Horizon inside of five years we are focus on the investment grade credits |
5hcsCdMi3jQ | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hcsCdMi3jQ | 2024-07-05 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Can the meme stock trade maintain its momentum in 2024? | [Music] another eventful week for the meme trade roaring Kitty revealing his 6.6% stake in chewy and cost skyrocketing more than 140% on Wednesday so what's next for mem stocks and what does it all mean for retail investors we're bringing in just the man to talk about this tasty live CEO Tom snoff for answers Tom it is always good to see you you know big big picture Tom in 2021 when I was talking about meme stocks I I don't know if I would have thought skip ahead you know to July 2024 I'd still be talking about roaring Kitty and Dave pornoy and meme stocks I mean I I guess I would have been surprised if you've told me that are you surprised Tom that this is still a trend a theme that we're talking about well obviously I I think I'm in the same camp as you I I would have been if you had told me three years later from 2021 we' still be talking about this in 2024 I think I would be super surprised but then again okay I'll throw another angle at you maybe just the term meme stuck and it's not just like the gmes and the chewes you know I mean was Nvidia a meme stock you know for an Institutional meme stock I'm not sure if that's just the new the new term that may stick you know for anything that's kind of you know out of control so a problem of taxonomy all right putting that aside for a second uh I was just we were just talking about uh with our uh head of news here that we got we're feeling 2021 Vibes and stick with me we got these Mega caps uh stocks uh heavy concentration favoring uh just a handful of stocks and then out of the blue we get this retail explosion in certain names we saw GameStop and Keith Gil filing a 13g now that's that's a game changer to and chewy you seeing any Sim any similarities here well of course I mean first of all there's two stories here the first story is the whole Keith Gil roaring Kitty thing is it's an extraordinary story for retail investors because somebody did something incredibly different than than than it's ever been done before and I mean not too many retail investors turn 50 million into some couple of hundred million God knows how much money he has but it's it's really never been done before so that in itself is an unbelievable story um but the other side to it I think is you you bring up a a a great point you know I mean what does this mean is this a repeat of 2021 because if you remember we normalized in 2022 and it was a pretty dark year for the markets and I think you are seeing you know you may be seeing some capitulation upside capitulation you may be seeing kind of some euphoria that I don't know if we can you know can we maintain these levels or will we normalize especially in volatility especially in all the indexes and everything else so yeah I'm going to answer your question and say it's a little like 2021 not as extreme but a little bit like it Tom I'm just curious for folks who are listening right now and they're hearing us discussing you know uh roaring Kitty and the mem stocks and the moves and and they want to play it they want in Tom what guidance would you give is there any kind of just general um guidance advice tips and tricks well you know at Tasty we um you know we're like the third largest derivatives Boutique so we we um specialize in in options when it comes to stocks like those you know most most of our um customers and most of our trades that are in the option Marketplace and most people that trade things like chewy and GameStop and things that have you know let's call these These are pure asymmetrical plays right you're just you know you want to risk one to make 10 or something like that and so a lot of people use the option Marketplace for that and I would just be careful in the sense that the markets in there even though these stocks are very liquid and even though they have a ton of trade the markets aren't great they're a little wide and you have to be careful about you know you have to be careful because some of the upside call skew is ridiculous and if you're not used to upside call skew just means that calls are priced more expensive than the puts and so it's where the velocity of risk is deemed to be so that's the only thing I would watch out for is just be careful about the upside call skew all right we always appreciate a good risk management discussion uh give you the floor here anything else you want to tell investors could be about retail stocks uh just about anything well you know as we wind down for kind of I I'm sure you guys are dealing with the same stuff we're dealing with today it's just a weird week you know when you have a half day on Wednesday and a day off on Thursday it's kind of it's it's a weird breakup but we haven't um I don't think we've experienced you know this kind it's been a long time since we haven't seen you know a down tick I think it's been three almost 350 days since we've had a 2% draw down in the snps um and I I think we've gotten to the point where you know we're a little frothy as we like to say the Ducks are quacking so just be careful all right the Ducks are quacking we're going to leave it on that note thank you for the visual and the audio as well Tom soff as always thank you have a great weekend guys |
Sb6f8bu4DzU | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sb6f8bu4DzU | 2024-07-05 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Stocks hit all-time highs, spurring Oppenheimer to review its S&P 500 price target | it's stocks set for new all-time highs on as investors have embraced the prospect that the June jobs report will push the Federal Reserve closer to a ray cut for more on what this means and for what this means for your portfolio let's W welcome in John sulfus Oppenheimer Chief invest investment strategist John thank you for joining us here today we've been waxing poetic about Fridays and jobs and everything else just what's your what's your first blush take on the jobs report this morning I I came in fine as far as I'm concerned when we looked at it you know if if it's anything that it states very clearly to us is jobs remains resilient even though we have seen slowing off the higher numbers that we used to get the that's not uh that that has to be expected the FED is raised 11 times uh and uh has been on cause for eight times now since March 22nd uh through today uh when you look at it essentially the has done the job uh they have a little bit further to go uh 2% Target uh on inflation remains somewhat elusive but in the meantime they have yet to push the economy into a recession that resilience shows in business it shows even in the consumer and it certainly shows up in the job postings so the economy appears to be larger than the negative pitchbook at this time and we say we think that's good for equities and John what is your un Target for the S&P 500 here my year end target has been exceeded twice this week in terms of the closing price it's been exceeded several times in the last uh five or six days uh but those were in Market uh uh moves uh but closing prices uh twice now in succession and it looks like it's going to happen again today uh we'll be we'll be reviewing our Target over the weekend that's all I can say whether we will whatever we'll do with it you'll find out on Monday can I can I ask you your honest opinion here about these targets these price targets a lot of times they're for 12 months or end of the year um what do you what do you say to investors with how how serious should investors be taking these well I think the the most important thing uh that we'd have to think of here Jarett is that the uh the the importance of the target really is it's kind of the fun part of the game for strategists and the and the Press uh as well as investors who like to what it is in terms of what's the direction that's what really counts are you looking for gains this year or not we started this year well last year in December we put in a 5200 Target for the S&P 500 for this year it was one if not the highest Target on the street people thought we were nuts it was exceeded sometime in the first quarter we raised it at that time uh to 5500 and now we've got to think about what we're going to do from here uh and it's our our our targets are based on uh very much on fundamentals it has to be the trends that we see both in economic data as well as in Revenue growth uh and earnings growth uh uh primarily in the S&P 500 as it right now is the leading index and the way this economy uh is structured |
0o8zQzOa7Hw | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0o8zQzOa7Hw | 2024-07-05 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Unemployment rate indicates 'slack' in labor market, economist says | the June jobs report showing another sign of the US job market continuing to cool the unemployment rate unexpectedly rising to the highest reading almost three years while June's job addition saw a slight decline for May PNC Financial Services Group Chief Economist Gus fosche joining us now to discuss Gus it's always good to see you so you look at this report Gus uh headline payroll growth of 26,000 did see Gus down revisions uh mention an unemployment rate ticking up to 4 4.1% so some some puts and takes here but Gus break it down for us how did you read this report I read this report as being very positive the job market continues to improve but the pace of job growth is slowing towards a more sustainable Pace over the longer run uh we saw slower wage growth which is reducing inflationary pressures from the labor market uh but at the same time wages are increasing more quickly than inflation so household incomes are going up and the economy should continue to expand so I think if you're at the fed this is what you want to see slower J job growth a little bit higher unemployment rates slower wage growth and that would support Cuts in the FED funds rate sometime later this year and do you think with a higher unemployment rate there's something called the S Rule and we don't need to get into the nitty-gritty but you think if the unemployment rate kind of holds here around 4.1 4.2% that actually gives the FED a lot of cover to lower interest rates as it has been telegraphing it wants to do uh that's right I mean it's an indication that there is a bit more slack in the labor market uh what they don't want to do is wait too long to cut because that increases a likelihood that we get a recession not necessarily this year but let's say in mid 2025 I think they do want to cut because they're concern that monetary policy is Weighing on the economy uh so this type of jobs report gives them the ability to do that they can say look inflation is slowing the labor market is cooling a bit therefore we should be cutting rates sometime later this year and Gus when would you be looking for in terms of later this year are you in the September Camp I'm more in the November Camp because I think they'd like to get past the election uh I think if they cut in September then that opens them up to political criticism so I think November looks more likely and I don't think it makes a big deal for the economy one way or the other uh that being said if we do see the job growth is slowing a little more than we're expecting then we might get that September cut but I think you know right now November but September is still in play you know uh time flies by here in a week we got the big Bank earnings just wondering uh you see anything in the data here uh that maybe we should be concerned about the consumer is the consumer still strong I think the consumer is still holding up uh as I said real incomes continue to rise uh when we look at things like Debt Service ratio those are still pretty low uh obviously travel has been incredibly strong this summer uh and so there's no indication to me that there are significant problems for the consumer I think there are some lowincome consumers who are a little bit stretched uh but we also have for high income consumers we have Rising stock prices rising household wealth that's supporting spending and we have seen the savings rate tick up a little bit which is what consumers are going to need to do over the longer run save a little bit more so I think that they're still overall in good shape uh perhaps with a little bit of of concern for for lower income consumers in particular uh Gus and next week of course CPI is on Deck I'm curious what are you looking for there Gus and how important is that is that print to the FED uh so 0.1% on the overall CPI we did see gasoline prices fall uh from May to June particularly given that seasonally we would expect them to increase uh we expect to see the core at 0.2% increase from from May to June again that's good news from the fed's perspective after some uh less progress in slowing in inflation in early 2024 we're starting to see inflation slow a bit more that being said it takes more than one or two months for the FED to be convinced that inflation is slowing but I think we will get better numbers on inflation over the next couple of months and then that supports a rate cut later this year sometime Gus always good to have you on the show thank you for joining us thank you |
n0_adj-OEKc | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n0_adj-OEKc | 2024-07-05 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Nike, Lululemon, Deckers: Top retail brands in focus | let's talk a little bit about what is in our closets let's play a fun little game called in or out and we're going to talk about three retail names that I know the three of us all have plenty of exposure to Nike Lulu and Deckers let's start with Nike and you take it any direction you want Brad I'll start with you Nike oh boy are we in or out I'm still in okay and are we talking in my closet or we talking however you want to interpret it however you want to interpret it the stock you know the logo anything yeah the iconic swoosh are you done with it this year's Olympic uniforms yeah so I think for Nike there are a few things that are alarms for some consumers some investors out there even uh and we'll get to the dunks that you're seeing on the screen because that's that's a large portion of it you know we we've been speaking quarter after quarter especially with Adrian ye of Barclays about what needs to happen at Nike and I wrote up a story earlier this year that still holds true from Adrian and our conversation talking about they need more innovation thisan needs more Innovation you think about the number of brands that are doing really well at taking market share on the apparel side purely because they're able to tap into audience bases that listen to Nike but also listen to them over platforms like social media they see all their friends wearing a gym shark they see all the friends wearing Alo or Alo I don't even know how we pronounce it great so I was O for two yeah vori so all of these new players have entered into the space challenged the Behemoth that Nike Adas Lululemon even and I know we'll get to them that they are and ultimately put pressure on them to say okay now you have to out innovate these new smaller players that are either more ESG minded that are perhaps even more creative in how they're marketing and go after that same consumer and on a pricing perspective figure out a way to make sure that as consumers are looking at this discretionary purchase that they're either going to buy into a Jordan shoe that they bought back in '96 and and once again here in 2024 or if they're going to wait for something else that's actually worth the $200 does I'm very simple uh I'm Richard Nixon out I'm piecing out of Nike I'm out on Nike and my thesis is is very simple one I think Co John Dono has done a terrible job and I think it's his time to announce successor there has been some chatter that you will get the next SEO of Nike uh coming up within the next year as should happen I think he's disappointed investors for the past four quarters in terms of results and guidance the street does not like to see this I think John has held on this job for too long number two um China uh I think the inventory levels in China remain too high the sales results and operating Mars in China remain under pressure and these things uh for a business the size of Nike does not change overnight company's probably looking at two three more challenging quarters in China before they cars correct so until I see some form of who the successor is for the CEO role at Nike and better results at China I can't be on this name just a stat real quick toss up those Panda dunks once again here because I got one you're going to say in you're just going to stay in just because you're in I I want to talk about my own Footwear but Brad continue number one selling sneaker on Goat in Flight Club number one most Wanted shoe on Goat for the second straight year in a row last year in 2023 average profit margin when it's sold on those platforms 33% people were buying into something that came out back in what the 80s again and for higher profit margins higher markups here so that is the that's both a gift and a curse I want to know John Donald tell me why my new Nike Maxes are peeling I want to know I just got them and they're peeling and they're garbage so I you know did like everybody else 18 19 you know was like I I need sneakers right it's the cool thing to do and so I have or I had four pairs of ones that I thought were sweet and I wore a pair of the office like a month ago and I'm like standing there and I'm looking at my feet I'm like what am I doing I I am a father this is not cool like this is out get a pair of Sketchers and and I I just it just doesn't feel it doesn't feel like it right speaking speaking of it let's talk about Lululemon we mentioned viori before for so I know they are selling Footwear maybe more of an apparo play Brian sazy are you in or out on Lulu staying Richard Nixon I am out I am piecing out on Lululemon this is very very simple if you go into Lululemon's latest 10q uh keyword the word conversion uh in the most recent quarter there was something uh that happened in L that I have not seen in some time it's a major red flag conversion rates were down what does that mean you go to the store you leave with nothing because they're close stink I think this company's having problems with color fit they've lost key executive Talent so until I see better conver verion R from L lemon usually takes two to three quarters to course correct that I can't be in this name either Bradley I mean the competitive Advantage for a while while you saw that stock Rising back a couple months ago and now the retreat that we've seen is because consumers are recognizing that they can get the same fabric at different stores for lower prices and it's uncreative right now I mean it's just colors on clothes yeah it does feel when I walk into my local Lululemon of course I have a local uh that it's the same thing just sort of reskinned now I will I will say I'm still in I'm still in on Lulu because why the clothes do hold up a lot better than other brands that I've owned and for my needs which is basically feeling not like a working stiff like I'm seated right now uh it always meets my needs and I again I think the durability for my closet has played out over time and maybe this is the problem for the stock me a boring dad who's like I just kind of want the same thing it is still kind of the same thing so this is not great that's why the stock's down 40% not great for investors not great for the story but as a core customer I am still in I'm not really shopping around for Alternatives like an aloe or like a vori even though both those stores are now just down the mall aisle from I know we got to get to miles I was sitting around at the barbecue yesterday bunch of 50 plus year old dads they're all talking about their new Sketcher shoes you got to get they the slipons they have the the the the cushioning 40 about 4045 get you into these it could be time my father wears Sketchers so w be me they're really comfortable you know what else my father wears he wears hokas so let's talk about let's talk about Decker's Outdoors Decker's Outdoors really the story here is Hoka the changes that have happened in the technical running Footwear space of the last 10 years I would love to do a whole show on Brian are we in or out on hokas I know you had ons on the other day where are we at with the big guys uh the chunky boys at Hoka I am also out on Hoka like the look all all the grow R I love I I like the shoes I like the Ugg story like all those things I am concerned just from a Pure Stock perspective it has been a monster monster and the growth rates have start to slow even for Hoka this was a brand a year ago growing at about 100% year over a year now it's down about 30 40% when you're a growth stock and your growth is slowing usually not a great setup I'm in on Deckers for a different reason though for uggs Uggs for for some reason continue to be like the thing that do you have ugs I I I don't but I know too many people that do in this day and age and I just can't figure it out honestly even oh they're so soft oh the men's slippers bread they're so just spur it fur is it fur it's like what is that I don't know just suits your foot so nice it's just so nice I mean so yeah it could be alpaca for all I know like at the end of the day I just know I se a lot of people yeah so for for some reason they were popular back when I was in Middle School and everybody was just like okay we're going to make that cool again gen Z is really doing a number on us these days so I would say on balance here it feels like some of the bigger public names in the Athletic Apparel space we didn't talk about an which is sort of the the one we didn't in Adidas feels like we were mostly out I I'm conc concerned that I now see an on the feet of uh older folks and uncool people that was usually a a Telltale sign hey you know who just bought you know who just bought on this guys I really I didn't I can't see this is the worst part I had well I have there's one model they have and I've had a few pair I get like one pair a year and I had to refresh oh okay but it's Cloud monsters no it's the cloud Nova Cloud Nova wear down that quickly worried I'm seeing them everywhere now they are not the most durable shoes what I've they not the most durable Sho shoel is no good no good they don't crease at the right spot |
oIiIVNybcD4 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIiIVNybcD4 | 2024-07-05 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Middle-income families feel 'high level of stress' about savings | middle income families continue to remain anxious about the state of the economy with two-thirds of families reporting their income falling behind the cost of living though on the upward swing from this time last year this is all according to the newest survey from prime America for more let's bring in Glenn Williams this CEO of prime America Glenn great to see you and thanks for hopping on the show with us all right so what are we seeing what's the feel the vibe across middle income family from the data that you're seeing in Prim Amica well Brad it's great to be with you and as you saw from the headline stat uh you know two-thirds still feel they're falling behind so I would say middle income families still feel like they're in Retreat financially uh we also detect a high level of stress financially from these families and of course we all know stress is not good for our physical health nor for our relationships but within the numbers we saw that three quarters are cutting back and of course that is actually good that's what people should be doing is rep prioritizing the challenge is that half of reducing savings or stopping savings entirely and 30% can uh report continued increased credit card usage so what's happening is they're shifting priorities that's good when they stop savings but or sto spending but reducing savings and using more credit is not a good Trend and so those difficult decisions where are you seeing perhaps the tradeoff more largely among households well it's it's an item by item process when we sit down with families it's always about prioritizing or rep prioritizing and so we sit down with families and explain to them that as much as they love those streaming services or the newest model cell phone uh that is preventing them from achieving their more important Financial priorities and the challenge is is that time is an ally when you're investing but it's an enemy when you're borrowing and so shifting from saving and investing to borrowing is is a double negative and so that's what we try to demonstrate that to families and then help them through the process of making those tough decisions on what's truly important to them and then taking action on those okay so with this in mind I was looking through some of the findings from your middle-income financial security monitor here and the majority grasp Financial Basics but not complexities here can you break that down a little bit further for us uh and and where there is understanding about perhaps some of the levers that can be pulled at a household level but the execution and and the complex ities are still perhaps daunting at this juncture sure well as as humans we tend to think we we have a general understanding of things but maybe we don't know the specific process needed uh to really make an impact so as we sit down with families clearly they know they need to be saving for the future particularly for retirement they need to make sure debt doesn't get out of control but we see them in action we sit down with them in first to analyze where they are today and that's where it exposes that what sometimes they think is happening is not exactly what's happening they're spending more than they think they're using credit more they're saving less or the amount that they're saving is not going to get them where they want to go in time and so that's where the decision starts and then we help them with a step-by-step process I mean the first thing is you've got to start some savings even if it's small you've got to start to reduce your debt uh even if that's a small process you got to protect your family with term life insurance so there's some basic steps and then as families get started they get a little momentum and then they find out it's easier to take the next step and the next step we find out it's not usually the information it's the personal application of the information to their specific circumstances that confuse families and then it's the motivation to act and continue to act that families need that's a great Point Glenn you know just lastly while we have you here I was looking through some of the drivers and the lack of financial planning and anxiety and limited time were two of the top that came up in this report from Primerica you know as you're thinking about the small decisions that add up to Big Solutions or perhaps big savings or smart spending habits what are the tips that households can emplore right now this weekend even as they're starting to think about getting into a better Financial standing well I think you hit the nail on the head Brad it's sometimes it's sitting down with families and just demonstrating that they can do something it's not hopeless it's not impossible and when we sit down with families they've got to take a look as we saw in the survey it's things like going out that are optional if you can eat in more often save a few dollars use those to to invest or pay down debt look at your streaming services that's an area that there's just a lot of of expense that sometimes families don't even realize they have or they're not using any longer uh take a look at at at your electronic devices the expenses there so many of these things a generation ago didn't even exist you know my generation didn't have to deal with these uh coming through that phase of life but now there are things that are optional that people have assumed are mandatory and they need to go back and say that's not as important as the greater priorities in my life that's Financial Security for my family all right I got to finish watching a few Netflix series and and Trigger warning was on my watch list as well the movie on Netflix before I cancel those streaming services here Glenn but then I'll take some of that advice you just gave thanks so much do that and then pull the plug Glenn Williams Prim America CEO great to see you |
5uMY0KXAHq8 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5uMY0KXAHq8 | 2024-07-08 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Stock market today: S&P 500, Nasdaq eke out fresh records with Powell on deck | t Domination. I'm Julie Hyman. That's Josh Lipton, live from our New York City headquarters. We are giving you the ultimate investing playbook to help tune out the noise and make the right moves for your money. >> And here's your headline blitz getting you up to speed. One hour before the closing bell rings on Wall Street. >> It's one of the most difficult calls in my career, but I think the chances are better than 50 over 50 that he will not be on the ticket. That Kamala Harris at some point in the fall, will wind up on the ticket. >> The fed is likely to cut rates in September. We see an economy that is cooling. We wouldn't call it weak, but it is cooling and we're seeing those inflationary trends also cool somewhat. So we think it's going to be, you know, time for the fed to start moving. And we expect, you know, 1 to 2, fed cuts this year. >> That's a good sign from the aspect that they're starting to clear some of these problems, some of these, these legal overhangs. And that's going to help them focus on the most important thing to do with the company, which is to build more airplanes, generate more cash flow and generate profits. >> We've got one hour to go until the market close. So let's take a look at the major averages. Right now we have some sideways movement today, a little bit of treading water because there are more events to focus on later in the week, namely, the Federal Reserve chair, Jay Powell will be testifying before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. We've got the consumer price index coming up on Thursday, and then bank earnings begin on Friday. So investors kind of looking ahead and as they do, not seeing a lot of activity today we see the Dow off by about 38 points or so about a 10th of 1. The S&P 500 very slightly higher. It's been bouncing around a little bit today. Important note on both the S&P and the Nasdaq. If either one of them or both of them closes higher, that will mean a new record for both averages in the case of the S&P, it will be the 35th straight record that we have seen thus far this year. You see the Nasdaq up about 2/10 of 1. So it's a little bit more solidly in the green. And as we look at the Nasdaq it helps to look at the Nasdaq 100 as well. Because guess what. The concentration the market concentration debate discussion is still very much alive. And well as we look at the Mega-caps to see what they're doing today. It's really a mixed picture as well. Meta is off by 2, but Nvidia on the flip side is up by 2. We had a couple of price target increases on Nvidia that we are going to get into a little bit later. And then the other sort of muddling along here, if you look at the sector action here for the major averages or for the S&P 500, I should say communication services in the red dragged by meta there. But we've got energy also lower. And then on the plus side we've got tech. So a split between tech which includes software and hardware and communication services which includes things like meta real estate, also showing a little bit of strength today Josh. >> All right Julie investors looking ahead to several key events this week semiannual testimony from Fed Chair Powell followed by key inflation readings to provide key signals for the path of interest rates ahead. On the corporate side, big banks JP Morgan City and Wells Fargo to kick off the second quarter earnings season on Friday for more on the market expectations ahead. We have Bd8 Capital Partners CEO and Chief investment officer Barbara Doran joining us here now. Barbara, good to see you. Yeah, nice to see you both. So there was an interesting note from, Ed Yardeni this morning. Ed being economist and strategist. He was telling his clients he was kind of trying to make sense of this market. And doctor Ed said, you know, it feels like he said kind of a slow motion melt up. And he said investors seemed like they look at this weaker than expected economic data we get. And they seem to kind of think, you know what? That's okay. That just increases the odds that Jay Powell is going to cut. Is that kind of how you're seeing things? >> Yes it is. And I think that's why the market's been making new highs. I mean there's two things that have been going on. And at different points they're in different ascendancy. Like the beginning of the year. The fed already started last year to discount the prospect of fed rate cuts. Now when we came into this year, people thought six seven rate cuts. Well, that hasn't happened. It's been pushed out now lately. Been coming back in. But what happened in the meantime? Earnings last third quarter last year was when they troughed and they're just going up and up since then. And this quarter is expected to be no exception. It could be anywhere from eight and a half, 9% or more. And that's what the economy, what the investors are focusing on are earnings and so whether the fed cuts in September, which I think is increasingly likely given the economic data we've had, but I think that's really what's going on. It's really about earnings now. And the fact that inflation is steadily coming down. And I think investors really believe the next few inflation prints, which you mentioned CPI and PPI this week, you know, should be positive. But we'll see. >> Let's talk a little bit about earnings then. Right. Because the market's always an expectations game. And the past few quarters expectations for earnings have been pretty low. And then companies have beat them I mean companies usually beat expectations but they've now been creeping up. And in fact if you look at the S&P 500, which I just pointed out is at a record again, but profit expectations have been going up as well. So are stocks sort of in a more delicate position now so to speak because of that? >> Well, you know, it's a good question because I think any time you've had a big run up and you're making, as you said, today could be the 35th high in the S&P, not to mention the Nasdaq and Composite and the Nasdaq 100. You've got at some point there's going to be a pullback. We know that. And what we've seen so far year to date though it's been shallow. And I think that's what's going to happen here because the underlying fundamentals are positive. The economy is slowing down. People are glad to see that. It means the fed you know, is restrictive. And they will admit that. And that's working. But now we're getting to the point where we're more concerned that we could, you know, start to slow it down too much. And the fed is cognizant, you know, they keep saying things are in better balance. That means balance between the one mandate to keep jobs and full employment and the other to get inflation down. And we seem right now that this soft landing or no landing scenario is very much intact. So I think we're in good shape, but it's a question of, you know, where from here. That's always been the question. All the big tech names they've been, you know, the majority of the gains so far. And I think it's been difficult to see the market broadening out like say into a cyclicals or small cap. You know, a lot of talk about that, how that has lagged. But without knowing the timing of the rate cuts, you can't say this is now we're ready for the next economic cycle. So I think we're going to get pretty close to be pretty certain the fed is going to cut rates. Then we'll see a broader rotation into that. But for now, even though names like, you know, meta Apple, you know, all the great names are above their historical PE. There's good reason for that. >> But how about Barbara after run we've had when clients ask you how valuation looks for the market, do you say it looks reasonable? Do you say we're stretched lofty? What How you describing it? Yeah. >> You know, it's also a good question. And you know, one it's always in the context of interest rates, you know, as the interest rates come down, PRS will expand. And I think we've been seeing that, you know, not as much as we did last year when things like the tech names were really, really sunk. But I think you've also got this bifurcatio. You know, we've all talked about a lot in terms of, the S&P weighted S&P versus the equal weighted and large part of the S&P is actually, you know, maybe a 1718 PE right now. Not that expensive historically. So if the market starts to broaden out you'll see, you know perhaps other leadership coming up when the tech names which I would not sell. So these are great names with great long runways of growth ahead particularly with the AI, you may take a pause there and see other names, you know, come into the ascendancy and New capital being put to work in that. >> But and I was going to say new capital. Speaking of which, you kind of you called a list of names the down and dirty brown name brand names might have turnaround prospects. And these, these. I mean, speaking of down and dirty, some of these are pretty beaten down. Nike, which is at its lowest since 2020. Starbucks, McDonald's, Lululemon, Boeing is on your list also. I mean, does that mean those are names that you're looking to, that you are getting into or considering getting into? And what's your trigger? >> Two of the names I have to admit I own, you know, and have owned for a while Lululemon and Starbucks. And there's names like Lululemon, Starbucks, McDonald's, Nike. These are all great names that in the past they have a brand and a reputation and a great management approach. And they have all in the past missed at different times. Zulu. Not until recently, you know, but they've always managed whether it was an execution issue or a macro issue or competitive inroads. I mean, Nike's gone through this over the many years. They somehow managed to right the ship, and that's why I'm looking at them to see where's, you know, what's the risk reward here. You know, because a lot of these names are discounting the worst possible case. Lulu. I still don't know yet because that could be real competitive inroads, but it could also be they just really miss the product cycle. Unusually for them, in terms of not having enough color, etc, etc. in small sizes. So yeah, I'm looking at them because potentially if these managements are able to turn things around and they have announced whether it's McDonald's value, you know, menu, Nike really trying to get back on the innovation track, all that stuff. You know, if it's fully discounted then there's potentially decent upside 2,530% from here. So I'm not doing anything. I'm still looking at them. Boeing is an obvious one. You know, I mean, how long does that take? You know, it's just every month some sort of bad news. You know, whether something flies off the bolts aren't there. But it is. It is part of a, you know, an oligopoly. And so at some point and they've got seven, eight years of, of backlog. So that's one you have to keep an eye on as to when you know and when it, to get into a stock like that. >> Barbara, you know election years introduce uncertainty. I think this year we can agree more than most. I mean serious questions about who's even on the ticket right now. What are you telling your clients, Barbara, >> well, I do get that client that that question from clients and what I say is basically, you know, Trump is more, more pro-business than Biden, but Biden is also, you know, pro-business. And we know who if Biden remains on the ticket, we do know who Biden is. We know what to expect. I mean, there's not going to be no surprises. And in fact, you know, here we are almost, you know, how many highs in the market and what's happening with unemployment. We've got a pretty good economy, you know, under the Biden administration and looks like, you know, there's nothing that's going to derail that, you know, in terms of his plans and what he says. Trump, on the other hand, it's more for Trump. There's two questions. One is the macro what happens if he implements the things that he says are his priorities. And there's three things that stand out to me, one is the 10. He's saying across the board, 10% import, tax increase and China much more. Okay. What does that do that raises prices. And what who does it raise the prices. That hurts the most. That's the lower income consumer who we are already seeing through many company reports, reports, retail, etc. that that's who is hurting it the most because they're spending on necessities. And then you have the immigration issue. If he really, gets elected and deports millions of immigrants, those are the ones who have been providing you know, have been taking the jobs that have been open. And that also helps, you know, keep wage pressures down. And then he's also talking about not, about keeping the tax cuts in place. And that's for the wealthy. Well, we've already seen in that administration it really the, the deficits and loss of income for that were not made up in other ways. So to me what you're seeing is that you probably means higher rates for longer. You know, that's inflationary. And so you know what happens then? I don't think it has immediate impact on the market. It's more what we're going to see is sector rotation, which everybody is trying to game. That out. And we know one that, you know Trump will not be pro-regulation. You know, we've already, you know, heard reports of him talking with oil executives. You know, if you support me I will, you know, give you certain benefits. Clean energy will be hurt. No subsidies. You know, anything that supports them, healthcare is interesting because healthcare will kind of would be bifurcated. You know, those with Medicare Advantage, like United Healthcare or Humana or CVS will do well. Right, those who have more of an Obamacare or Medicaid orientation, like a Centene, they're not probably going to get much support. You know, from the government tech. Both parties seem not to like. So they'll, you know, in either case, they'll be after them. And of course, banks, you know, anything that requires regulation. But banks, there's not, I think big changes that would happen just less maybe attention to enforcing certain regulations. Right. >> That's interesting how you're thinking about all of this. Well, Barbara, thank you very much. You're going to stick around, though, and join us in a little bit for goodbye or goodbye. Just don't go anywhere. And we're just getting started here on market domination. Coming up, Boeing has agreed to plead guilty to a criminal fraud charge surrounding two fatal 737 Max crashes from 2018 and 2019. We'll check in on the stock later in the hour. Plus at 330, it is indeed the latest edition of our series Goodbye or Goodby. You know already who's gonna join us? It's going to be Barbara Duran. We'll break down two stocks to help you decide what to do with your portfolio. >> And at 430, it's asking for a trend. I'll be diving into the latest stories impacting your wallet, including the recent moves in crypto stick around. All that and more. When market domination returns. Hi. >> Let's check in on some trending tickers here on Yahoo Finance. First up, we've got Boeing, which is little changed right now, but if you look at the intraday chart it's really been bouncing around today. The company agreeing to plead guilty to criminal fraud charges in connection with two fatal crashes of its 737 Max jet. Prosecutors accused the aerospace giant of deceiving regulators to approve the plane and pilot trading requirements for it. It's still unclear if this, settlement is going to go through because the families of, who were involved in these various incidents are weighing in. >> Yeah. And don't seem happy. Right. Yeah. Criticizing it. You know, I looked at I mean it's another black eye for Boeing. It does mean they avoid a trial, which would have obviously been a distraction. And I mean, you never know what's going to happen in a trial. So you do put that behind you. But as you know listen Boeing faces a fine. There's a corporate monitor, not something a company ever enjoys. Reports suing the government and Boeing are still, as you know, it's kind of finalizing this. I read reports they expect to file the final plea agreement by July 19th, moving forward now, you do have some dates on the calendar. We've got Q2 results on July 31st. We have Farnborough, the air show that's coming up soon. And really the big question, which is interesting too, by the way, I mean the stock's up a half percent maybe on some clarity. That's what investors are reacting to. Who knows? I mean the big question is still is also who's leading this company. Who is actually going to be CEO, we hear about potential candidates. Maybe it's Pat Shanahan over spirit AeroSystems. He's certainly being talked about. But still, who is going to be that in that C-suite? When Calhoun steps aside, the clouds over the stock are not removed with this settlement, even if we see a little bit of boost for the stock today. >> By the way, as part of all of this settlement, $455 million is what Boeing is going to be required to spend on compliance and safety measures in the coming three years. So that's part of all of this as well. If it does end up sticking. Yep. >> All right. Our next trending ticker Exxon. That company revealing it expects refining profits to drop due to lower margins across the industry. Reducing earnings estimates for the second quarter. This will be the oil giant's first earnings report since closing on that $60 billion deal for pioneer Natural Resources. And so that was the headline here. We have some new numbers from Exxon, and I guess what the investor is trying to figure out is what that means for the bottom line. Exxon saying earnings from refining will decline between 1.1 and 1.5 billion in the second quarter, compared with the previous three months, and I did see some analysts I think it was RBC quoted as saying this means when they did the math, earnings per share overall maybe look light versus consensus. Yeah. >> And also we should mention that the company is dealing with hurricane Beryl and the effects of that right now, Houston a lot of that city is out of power. It's affecting Gulf operations as well. So that's just something on the side that it's dealing with as it's also come out with this update full results from the oil giant are going to be coming on August second. So we'll get more color around. Pioneer Some analysts said the contribution from the pioneer acquisition were not as good as had been expected, so we should get more fleshed out information when we get that full earnings report that's coming up. All right. Let's broaden it out and talk about what's going on in the macro level. Because it is a big week for investors. We'll be getting a fresh reading on inflation this Thursday that could help build the case that the fed should begin to cut interest rates in September. For more on the week ahead and what it means for the economy, we want to welcome in Veronica Clark, economist at Citi. Veronica, it's good to see you. And what I find really interesting about the city call on what's going to happen with interest rates is it's a good reminder. It's not just about when they start, it's about what happens after that and how frequently, they they keep cutting rates. And you guys think we're going to have a streak here once they start going? Talk us through that. >> Yeah. Yeah, exactly. We have the fed cutting rates for the first time in September, which is it's not so much out of consensus anymore. We're we're pricing about 20 basis points or so for, for September, but yeah, we're we're more out of consensus is what happens after that. We do think the fed is cutting every meeting after that. So that includes November, December and into the first half of, of next year, and that consecutive cut call is increasingly premised on this idea that the labor market is softening, you know, we had very strong 200 K plus payrolls on, on Friday, but that unemployment rate ticking up, I think will be increasingly concerning for, for fed officials. We're now at 4.1% on the unemployment rate. That's above the Fed's year end forecast, so I think that will really you know, what gets us to those consecutive cuts? >> And, Veronica, when you're talking to clients and they ask you, what are the risks to this call? What do you tell them, Veronica? >> Yeah, I mean, we are still, I think, in a, you know, we're kind of on this trade off of, are we going to have a soft landing? Are we going to weaken further? I think we have a much easier time now than maybe a couple months ago of convincing people that things are slowing down, a couple months ago, you know, the story was re-acceleration and growth picking up again. Maybe the fed would have to hike again, that looks much less likely. But I think for us it really just comes down to the, the normal macrodynamics. You know, most recessions, most downturns do start very gradually. They start very slowly. And then at some point you encounter this non-linearity. You get the bigger increase in layoffs. We have seen this rise in initial jobless claims lately. It kind of feels like we're on the brink of that now, maybe the biggest pushback is, yeah, the overall numbers still look pretty good. It's just the, you know, extrapolating that trend does not look so good. >> Veronica, what are the other warning signs that you're seeing in the data? >> Yeah, I mean, I think it really does, you know, mostly come down to the labor market. We've seen, you know, for a number of months now, you know, nine months or so, you know, hiring really pulling back hours worked that are coming down. It looked to us like all of those early steps that employers would be trying to, you know, cut labor costs. They're not laying anyone off yet. But that would really be the last step, but as that, you know, dynamic has happened and it's been getting harder and harder to find work if you do happen to get laid off. We have seen this pullback in spending. You know, we've had retail sales. You know, moving sideways to slightly lower for a number of months now. And that pullback in spending that's less business revenue. Maybe that's what gets you to that final step of layoffs. So it is really just this gradual deterioration that we see. >> Veronica, I'm curious to know our central bankers are on Capitol Hill this week. Jay Powell, with his semiannual testimony. I'm curious. Veronica, you'll be listening. What do you think Jay Powell has to say? >> Yeah, I think the risk tomorrow we'll hear from him first tomorrow and then on Wednesday. Are that he sounds relatively dovish, it's interesting that we're hearing from Powell first, you know, among fed officials after that unemployment rate number on Friday, but he did sound like a, you know, a central banker who's getting more worried on the labor market, you know, employment side of the Fed's mandate. We've heard that from some of the other fed doves. Also, I don't think he's going to, you know, you know, really flag, you know, alarm bells just yet, but I think he'll be increasingly worried with that unemployment rate rising. >> At the same time, it feels like inflation is going in the Fed's direction. Right are you are you pretty confident that we're going to see a benign reading in CPI on Thursday? >> Yeah. >> Yeah. I mean as confident as a forecaster can be maybe there's always things that can happen. You never know. But yeah we're expecting another pretty favorable reading for the fed a 0.2% month on month for core CPI. That's a very normal reading. Even in the details of that, I think we might see, you know, finally, some slowing and shelter inflation. That's been a very sticky, strong component of inflation that might look more normal on on when or on Thursday's data. So that would be, you know, the fed getting more confidence that inflation is easing. >> Veronica great to have you on the show today. Thanks so much for joining us. >> Thank you. >> And coming up it's the latest edition of our series goodbye. Goodbye. We're breaking down two stocks to help you make the best movies for your portfolio. Stay tuned. More market domination after this. >> It's a big, noisy universe of stocks out there. Welcome to goodbye or Goodbye. Our goal to help cut through that noise. To navigate the best moves for your portfolio. Today, we're hitting on the low and high notes of music companies. I'm here with Barbara Doran, Bd8 Capital Partners CEO and CIO. Thanks for being here. So let's talk about some music companies. One of my favorite topics actually is to talk about music, so I'm happy to do so. Universal music Group is the stock that you would be looking at at a potential buy the stock. So I'm pretty well over the past year trades in Europe. It's up about 33% or so over the past year. So let's talk about why you like it a streaming growing and pricing for streaming is getting better for the artists that that this company manages. >> Yeah, yeah it's been it's been a big sea change in the last 18 months or so, really driven by names like Spotify, a stock that's up 100. And it takes in just a little bit of history about the music business. You know, when I guess in about the last, the first 15 years of 2001 to 14, the sales dropped dramatically. And that was because digital media, you know, came into being and people did not want to buy the physical records. So it went from 23 billion to 14 billion. Then streaming started to catch on. And so it's now back up to 27 billion. So you've had a very big sea change. And the sea change is really is paying. It's become much more what they're calling artist centric that you are now paying. Every time I download a song, I am paying that artist and that is through the big music. You know, studios and that is the three big three are universal, Sony and, and Warner. And so it's a very interesting time because they're really seeing their revenues come up with a decent amount of their revenues from the streaming services. >> And it's also interesting because universal had an agreement with TikTok, lost the agreement with TikTok. But the last earnings report actually looked pretty decent, as you say, this is one of the big three, and it's actually the biggest of the big three, I believe. Yes, with a with its market share. >> Right. It is. They've got about almost 30% of share. Sony is number two with about 19. And you have Warner bringing up somewhere between 14 and 15. And in this business that makes that's a big difference because usually when they're talking market share they're talking about the catalog. Right. The catalog is the millions and millions of songs that they have. And that's it's an advantage to have that kind of scale. Because an interesting thing that's happening with streaming is all these sort of the iconic names of the past, you know, are becoming even more popular and you're seeing more downloads. In fact, there was an interesting stat, the UK market, you know, eight years ago, 53% of downloads were this iconic golden oldies type of thing. Now it's up to 77. So yeah, and it's the thinking is that it's probably not only the older generation figuring out how to stream, you know, but it's also younger generation who never heard these songs. And a lot of it's great music. So you're seeing the streaming is and you're seeing something like Spotify, who's being very aggressive in building their business, and they're seeing something like 19, 20% more active monthly users every month. That's big. They've got about almost three quarters of a billion listeners, about a quarter billion that are subscribers. And that money flows directly to all of them. Yeah. >> And as you say, also, it's not just how many artists they have, it's who they have. Right. And we actually have a graphic, I believe, of some of the Universal Music Group. I mean, Taylor Swift, one with a bullet there, right. Like that's the one that's obviously she's been dominant. But they also have legacy artists like sting, Bad Bunny, Sabrina Carpenter who's been hot this summer, Kendrick Lamar, Warner on the other hand, which we're going to talk about in a minute, it has it has some big artists. But in terms of the depth and breadth, well, that's it, you know, because what happens when you have all the big names, it, you know, it makes it much easier to recruit new names, right? >> When you're a Warner and you're sort of in third place, you've got to offer more. You usually can't give as good royalty deals, you know, to the space you don't have as much capital. And so when you've got the scale and you've got the global infrastructure, offices everywhere, it really makes a difference. And you're seeing that Universal's gaining share in just about every category. >> Well, as you know, we have to talk about what are the risks here. And I guess the potential risk here is that a subscription service like a Spotify will be able to continue that momentum. >> Exactly. Because the thinking right now, when analysts are really doing their projections, there's only about 15% penetration in smartphones worldwide in terms of streaming music. So the thought is that will grow. So you've got not only the growing subscriber base but the players like universal who have deep, you know, benches both in the iconic sort of music, but also these big stars because apparently 2, you know, you know, of the stars, is what's played. As for 95% of the time, right. So it's huge. That makes sense. >> So we already teased it. But let's talk about the company that you think is not as good a buy. And that is Warner Music Group. The shares are up over the past year about 9. So they've really lagged. So let's talk about it smaller. First of all, you talked about scale important. They don't have the same quantity. >> No they don't. And I'll tell you where that starts with not only in your recruiting and finding the top artists because you'll say oh my God, Taylor Swift, I want to have the, you know, the people who have the ability to promote me and get me out there. So that hurts. Plus, it's also technology. And I, you know, you've got to spend a lot. There's lots of things going on. They won't have that those kinds of resources and so and also when they negotiate their royalties with artists, it's usually they have to give more, you know, to say, well look, don't go with this player. We'll give you better pricing. >> And also there's the, you know, as you said before, talent sort of begets talent. And I guess the opposite can be yeah, that's really it. >> And I think that's why you see the, the disparity in the stock performance between universal and them. Because universal has much more, much higher growth. They have a great management team and they know how to do it. And this you know their it's been erratic. You know in their execution. And I think it's just it's really a function of their size and scale. And I think the third one we kind of already alluded to the pricing pressure that is that they have to you know yeah, it's pricing pressure, right. Not only right on that, but it's also, you know, in terms of streaming and all that sort of thing. So we will see, you know, what happens there now, what could go right for Warner. >> You know, the streaming business numbers could continue perhaps to improve. >> Yeah. And also what's interesting is that gaining share in terms of their deep, you know, music base, you know, from the past. And so I mean, you mentioned sting I mean names like that, those are it's like the riches that keep giving. It's also higher margin business because they've already it's already sunk costs. They've already paid for those artists way back when to get them where they are. So the more it goes to, the deeper in their catalog, the more higher margin business and the more visibility, because you can have years of visibility knowing what you have in your catalog, what we call the legacy artists. >> Sadly, yes. >> Yes. Okay So you are telling folks buy universal, avoid Warner Music. You don't hold either of these. No, I don't hold them. >> And I wouldn't say I mean I would. I want to make clear Warner is not a short, you know, because a rising tide, you know, they will be helped by all these, you know, industry, you know, forces that are happening. But again, as you mentioned, they have really underperformed. This stock has been up three times at Warner, was in the last year and year to date. You know Warner is down. And so and I think this has a deserves a premium valuation. It will maintain that. And the only reason I think people would buy Warner because they think okay it's down and dirty. It's discounted. But I think it will always be discounted to universal. All right. Barbara thanks a lot. >> Really appreciate it. >> And thank you so much for watching. Goodbye or Goodbye. We'll be bringing you new episodes at 3:30 p.m. eastern. >> All right. Let's check in on a few of the top analyst calls from today. Nvidia shares higher on the back of two price target boosts UBS raising its outlook from 120 to 150, citing demand momentum for the Blackwell chips, while Wolfe Research also raising its price target to 150, calling it one of the best ideas in semis. So UBS, for its part, talks about demand momentum for Blackwell rack scale systems says it's robust sentiment. Yes, they say it's recently faded on the stock. In the last few weeks, creating what they say is more a wall of worry that should be ultimately healthy. If our stock if our outlook materializes and then separately, as we noted, Wolf also raised their target to 150. Talk about ASPs and improving mix driven by by Blackwell. >> Now I'm sort of blown away like I'm I don't know why I'm continually surprised by estimates for Nvidia, but I'm still have a capacity to be surprised, apparently. So the consensus calendar 2025 earnings per share estimate for Nvidia is $3.69, according to Bloomberg estimates. UBS says no, it could be closer to $5 per share because of these channel checks that they're doing. Wolf puts the number around $4, but like 369 versus $5. That's a pretty big gap here. And the naysayers with Nvidia have talked about this slowing growth trajectory all around. There's no way they could keep up this pace of growth, UBS says. Well, given what we're seeing when we talk to people who are buying this stuff, there is still high demand. Now we'll see if that does end up being the case. But it's still, you know, it's just it's incredible. Has its capacity to say, wow, $5 versus 360 isn't it isn't our friend, our friend Corey Johnson. >> If you tour him didn't we ask him. And he said in his career never seen anything like it. Never seen anything like Nvidia. >> You know we've thrown around the word unprecedented a lot under after the past few years. But you know, you still yeah still applies in some cases. Let's get to another mover now Melius research suggesting the second half of the year could see some major gains for the likes of Intel, AMD and Apple in what analyst Ben Reitzes calls the Catch-Up trade for stocks that underperform in the first half. And he's looking for a model at last year where he said, we saw a similar phenomenon where these stocks didn't do well in the first half, and then they caught up in the second half of the year. And those are just some of the names that he's talking about. And he's talking about the product cycle for Apple being helpful. He's talking about semiconductors like AMD and Intel coming back as well. >> Yeah. And to tie back to the video, his note to clients, what he says is Nvidia's Blackwell actually isn't only the only product cycle to pay attention to in the second half, would you believe it or not? Yes. So to your point, Julie, it was I like this note. Sort of, time to dust off the AI laggards again was the title of the note, and he talks about Apple and the iPhone 16 and how street estimates are are low for the iPhone franchise. And then he also talked about some other things too that were interesting about the AI. Ready PCs, a big theme. Listen, we've talked to a lot of smart analysts about that. Some questions about how that will play out. But he talks about how that that benefits some names like Intel and AMD. And then also mentions IBM. By the way, Big Blue gets the shout out underperform underperformed in the first half. He notes. Now he says he sees revenue upside from Red hat. And they also talk about help from some recent acquisitions over there. As well. Yeah. >> Doesn't hurt that that Taiwan Semi is also rallying today. So we're seeing a big chip rally overall I think TSM above $1 trillion in market cap today in the US it's US valuation. >> Finally shares of ServiceNow. Now they are sliding today. Look at that down about 5% on the back of a downgrade from Guggenheim to sell from neutral citing second half concerns in the company's gen AI monetization. So all right. Guggenheim cuts to sell target 640. Not many sales on this name, by the way. Only actually just two on the street, doesn't mean he's wrong by the way, now, he says he the company seems to be expecting an uptick in AI business in the second half. Juli. But our fieldwork indicates this is not likely until 2025, if ever. >> That was the part I bolded from the note as well. >> The dramatic caveat. Yes. >> Yeah. So, I mean, and this is you know, it's interesting I wrote about this for the Yahoo Finance Morning brief recently, that there is all of this expectation around Gemini, but particularly with these software companies, they're not necessarily seeing it flow to the bottom line or even the top line as of yet. >> The other thing he said that stuck out to me. He said, we believe there's a material risk that now will have to lower. Top line subscription guidance for 2024. Now, he says, there's a real sales culture at ServiceNow that is powered its numbers and that that might sort of, if not mask any weakness. It might help them get a little bit more of a runway. But, you know, with that sell rating, he doesn't seem that. >> Yeah, he point for his clients. He said, listen, there's some risk to my call. You know, if there was significant increase in federal spending, he said that could result in upside compared to what I'm looking for, higher revenue contribution from Gemini Solutions. Then maybe, he says, I'm modeling or anticipating. But as you point out, Julie not his base case report. They report on July 24th. So maybe another update. Then we'll see what happens. All right. Moving on. Office vacancies hitting an all time high record in the second quarter at 20.1. It is the first time the sector has ever eclipsed 20. It's according to a new Moody's report. And with us now is the coauthor of that report. Tom Lasalvia, head of CRE economics at Moody's. Tom, it is good to see you. So looking at this Q2 preliminary trend report, Tom, you do say, listen, the office sector record vacancy rate, 20.1. Where does that rate go from here, Tom, in the next, let's say 612 months. And what factors what variables does that depend on? >> Yeah. Unfortunately for office property owners, that vacancy rate continues to go up. Some of our most recent research shows that with remote work really here to stay, we could see a 22 to 24% vacancy rate as at the peak of distress that's likely to hit sometime in 2025, maybe even early 2026. So there's still a couple of years of accelerated distress as this plays out, one of the key variables here, it's going to be, well, office employment of course. And we know that the labor market is beginning to soften. And another key variable here is remote work. And remote work. As I said before, it is here to stay at least at some level. Right. I think there's still a trial and error period that's going to last multiple years. But we know that square footage per employee is going to continue to drop. >> And Tom, when you talk about a peak vacancy rate in office of 22 to 23, I mean, just for so people know, you said in the second quarter it was about 20. So still an increase from there. What then is the long term vacancy rate, right. Like in other words, how long can it stay at 22 or 23. Is that the new normal? >> It's a great question. The way we're thinking about this as obsolescence, that there is a good 10 to 20% of office buildings out there that really just will not be able to compete in this new era, this era of remote work, this era of new offices, this era of new. Let's say, centers of power in terms of where office centric locations are. Right? I mean, you're getting migration into the Sunbelt. You're seeing even within metropolitan areas like New York, certain submarkets, doing much better than others. And so what you're left with is 10 to 20% of obsolete offices that are going to have to find some new life in this new era, right? They're going to have to go the way of a lot of these class B and class C malls over the past 30 years. >> And do you see that? I mean, that was one big trend, Tom, that was often talked about that you would see office buildings, you know, repurposed. As for example, residential buildings. I mean, is that when you do your research, Tom, is that actually happening? Because there seemed like it seemed like there would be such tremendous red tape and bureaucracy to make that happen or. No. Is that a is that a trend we're seeing that's actually playing out? >> Well, a combination of both of those things. It is a trend that we're seeing. Right. And we've seen it. I think, the financial district in New York since 911 is a perfect example of how you can take at least older office buildings with smaller floor plates and you can renovate those into valuable residential real estate. So there is a precedent for that. I think the problem comes in is when you have some of these 1970s, 1980s office buildings where there's not a lot of natural light hitting the center of those buildings. That's where you're going to run into real cost pressures that make it prohibitive to actually go ahead with one of these renovations. And so where does that leave us? That leaves us with a lot of subsidization, a lot of public, private partnerships in order to convert some of these obsolete office buildings from that era. >> Tom, finally, I wanted to ask you about a report in the Wall Street Journal today that talked about potential fraud that has elevated the valuations of some of these office properties that now that the market's pulling back, maybe those are being uncovered. And I'm just curious how much of an issue you think that is in the market. And then how that affects what we're going to see next. >> Well, what I can say about this is there's been a lot of extensions of modification, a lot of work with loans, a lot of non transaction activity going out there, whether it's from the loan perspective or from the sales perspective. And that has not allowed really any price discovery. So whether there's fraud or not or cooking of books or whatever it might be, a lot of that's going to have to come out over the next year or two because again, especially if that building is considered obsolete in this new world, right. Where do we go from there? There's going to have to be some liquidation of that asset. And the truth has to come out about really, what are the occupancy levels, the rent levels, what's the income? What are the management expenses? Right. What's going on with each and every of these properties. So price discovery is going to be a really big deal because of the distress we see coming over the next year. Two years. I think we do see a lot more of that price discovery, and we see a lot more of the specifics of some of these properties. >> Tom Lasalvia, quite a picture here of the office market. Thanks so much. Appreciate it. >> Thank you. >> Coming up, shares of Solaredge have had a rough first half of the year, but one analyst sees opportunity in the pullback. We'll speak to her after the break. >> Tesla shares. Fighting for gains. Trying to extend its win streak to nine straight sessions. Stock now at break even for the year. And as Frey is here with a look at what is driving the stock higher NES. >> Hey Josh. >> Yeah it's a nail biter because Tesla right now is up about 6/10 of a percent. It opened lower than went up about 2% earlier today. So let's see what happens. But look over the last eight sessions Tesla shares are up 37% over the last month. About 40. Remember this stock hit a 52 week low on April 22nd when it hit around $138 per share. Right now, it's at 253, so it has been a huge run over the last month of course, the production and delivery beat the stock popped last week because of that, but also you saw the stock going higher even before that, there's some positive Wall Street calls or analysis after those production and delivery beats, even though delivery was down year over year, it still beat what the analysts had been expecting. Dan Ives, over at Wedbush has a $300 price target on the stock. Adam Jonas and Morgan Stanley called out that this is more than a car company in his note, and he pointed out what some other analysts have also been pointing to, which was the show stealer, which was Jonas called it, and that is its energy segment, which is the fastest growing segment for Tesla Energy Storage. This includes products like Megapacks. These are these massive rechargeable batteries that are used for commercial and industrial use. And what's interesting about this segment, yes, it is a much smaller slice of the pie. When you look at the Tesla's overall business, but it is the fastest growing and its profit margin is also large. It's at a record just above 24. You compare that to Tesla's Automotive, which is around 18. So you can see why analysts are excited about this segment, even though it is a smaller piece of the pie. But just taking a look at where we're at with this stock, it's break even for the year. It's come off those April lows. It's a massive run for the stock over the last month. >> Innes thanks a lot. >> So we'll see the photo finish and where it turns out today where it ends up. Thank you. Well shares of Solaredge have had a rough first half of the year down roughly 70. Bank of America Securities now sees opportunity in the pullback, upgrading the stock to neutral, citing an appealing valuation as the stock is already priced in an unlikely worst case scenario. Joining us now, Dimple Gosai, clean energy analyst at Bank of America Securities. And Dimple so it's not that you're positive on the stock. You are at a neutral but you're less negative on the stock here. And given that 70% pullback what kind of scenario is the stock pricing in here. >> Good question Julie. And thanks for having me on. So for those that aren't familiar, solaredge is a power electronics company. They do DC inverters, they sell optimizers and battery, storage systems to. So you're right, the stock is down 70. Underperforming its closest peer enphase by close to 50. And the broader solar index by close to 50% as well. Year to date, I think, you know, the stock is oversold. Investors are largely concerned that we might see the likes of inventory write downs, you know, you are seeing, Solar Edge struggling with things like customer, accounts receivable extensions, monetizing the balance sheet, weaker underlying demand. And the question is really when can these underlying trends really reverse? And so that's the fear in the market. We are arguing that the stock here is largely overdone. >> Dimple. So you moved to the sidelines. What do you have to see to make a buy rating on this one. >> Yeah. Good question. So one is I'd really like to see the balance sheet. You know I'd like to see underlying demand. Firstly improve because that would mean that, you know, this this inventory congestion that we are seeing today, largely prevalent in Europe were to unwind, and similarly weaker in demand in the US, but to then turn which would, which would really change, what we see from the balance sheet. That's the first thing. Secondly, I'd like to see, you know, solaredge execute on some of these IRA tax credits, you know, expand us manufacturing, kind of see margin growth here, and with that, the, the increase in cash flows. So not yet bullish but looking for signs of incremental growth. And so that's really where we're looking for signs in the second half of this of this year. >> Dimple I wanted to sort of zoom out a little bit and ask you about the solar industry more broadly because it's been a lousy year for a lot of these companies. Solar edge is not alone. I was looking at the tan ETF, the Invesco Solar ETF, which is down more than 20% year to date. At a time when solar adoption has been increasing, as you said, there are tax credits in the U.S. at least, and in other places that are available. What has gone wrong and what would turn the cycle? >> Good question. And I think one is interest rates. You know, the cost of financing, one, the second thing is just weaker consumer demand, especially in the residential solar segment, and then three tax credits is something that, that we are seeing companies really take advantage of. Utility scale and resi, but we won't likely see the benefits of this until next year, when you can really, you know, include them or get the cash up front. So that is something that we yet to see the benefits of. So those are probably the three main things that are, that are hindering the sector. I would I would say and then there's also the, you know, regulatory policy. So for example, in California, which is, you know, north of 60% of the residential, market today, we're seeing policies like the net energy metering policy or NEM three, which is similar to the Netherlands market, which is really, decreasing or has hampered the growth or in demand growth amongst consumers. >> Dimple, thank you so much for joining us today. Great chat. >> Thank you for having me. >> And while we're wrapping up today's market domination, don't go anywhere. We've got you covered with all the action following the closing bell. Stay tuned for market domination overtime. >> That's the closing bell on Wall Street. >> And now it's market domination. Overtime, we are joined by Jared Blikre to get you up to speed on the action from today's session, I'll start with where the major averages ended up today or down. In the case of the Dow, it was the only one of the three majors to end in the red today, down about a 10th of 1, about 31 points. As we've been talking about investors waiting for a lot of big events later this week. And in the meantime, not a lot of action today, but it was enough to push the S&P 500 to a new record. It indeed closed in the green 35th record that we have seen, record close that we have seen for the S&P 500 this year. The Nasdaq also managing a record close despite a lot of volatility and a pretty tight range today, but a lot of up and down. But ending the day higher by about a quarter of 1% for the Nasdaq here Jared. What's caught your eye in today's session. As we have seen these little but incrementally record gains. >> Yes little. But incremental. I was noting the difference as you noted, between the Dow and the Nasdaq. Dow slightly negative today. But interestingly the Russell 2000 is more positive than any of the three majors. And that's kind of an outlier in and of itself. What do I make of it. Not too much. But just something to put down and see if it happens a few days in a row. Then we can have a conversation. Ten year note yield just about break even there on the day. Not a lot of movement in the bond market. What we're seeing is outperformance in tech by a pretty wide margin here. And it's interesting that communication services, another mega-cap sector, is actually the least positive. And we can see this when we drill down into the Nasdaq 100. Here you have Nvidia. It's been down recently a few days but it is up again I think it's the highest level in about 10 or 11 sessions. Apple. This might be a record high. We've seen record highs from Apple recently. But we're also seeing some. And yes it is, but we're also seeing some weakness Microsoft Dow Amazon Alphabet meta. Really the outlier down 2. That's obviously not a disaster. So when we take a look inside tech this is where it gets interesting. You can see all these semiconductor stocks. Some of them are even dark green AMD up 4% Intel up 6. Contrast that with what we're seeing in software, where we're seeing mostly red. Yahoo Finance's Josh Lipton and I are going to talk about that in 30 minutes. And here he is now Josh thank you Jared for more on the markets. >> We're joined now by Adam Turnquist LPL Financial Chief Technical Strategist Adam it's always good to have you on the show, maybe Adam, let's start off big picture. You look at the S&P 500. What are the charts telling you here, Adam. At least in this, you know, kind of near to intermediate term. >> Thanks, Josh. And appreciate being on. Look when you step back and look at the market it's hard to argue with record highs almost on a repeated basis here. But when we view it from a technical lens we're very overbought. We're getting very close to retesting the upper end of this rising price channel that's been in place, really going back to the lows of October 2022. And we're also getting divergences in market breadth. Last week on Friday, we only had 4% of S&P 500 stocks. Make new 52 week highs. That number steadily declined. You compare that to the rally to the March highs when it was advancing. You had broad participation really not the case. We're seeing a long list of divergences at the breadth level and even at the economic level. When you look at some of the ISM services data last week, manufacturing both dipping into contractionary territory. So what does it all mean on a shorter term basis? We think we're probably due for a little bit of a pullback here. >> What does it mean on a longer term basis though? I mean because we've seen some shorter term pullbacks. Breadth hasn't been good for a long time. So how can that continue sort of indefinitely longer term we think the strategy here is to buy the dip. >> We don't think you need to chase this rally right now. Just given how overbought the market is. Look at where leadership is, especially in the semiconductor space. Very overbought. Having a good day today. But even if you look at the Nasdaq Composite it's a 20% premium to its 200 day moving average. That's over a two standard deviation move. Historically when you look at that and compare it to weak breadth you typically get a pullback. And that's really the playbook. As we look ahead to the second half. >> And Adam you know we talk a lot about this narrow leadership. Do you see signs the charts of any kind of you know real rotation. >> Not yet. We've thought of this market as really kind of a field of dreams bull market. If you build it they will come meaning the mega-caps lead some of the smaller caps and other sectors follow, but we're really not seeing that take place right now. And I think that speaks to some of the weaker economic data that we're seeing. A lot of the economic surprise indexes now moving into negative territory. That wasn't the case last year when we had most of the economy surprise to the upside, given the recession call that started 2023, >> we've also been watching and this is a chart that we flagged earlier, that stocks are making these records at the same time that profit estimates are moving up. >> and so does that. What tends to happen? Well, you know, I guess profit expectations are also at record highs according to this chart from Bloomberg, but what tends to happen when you see that kind of movement? >> We think the bar has been raised for earnings. As we look ahead and kick earnings off on Friday, with some of the big banks looking at quarterly earnings growth of around 8 to 9% on estimates, think back. We've come out of an earnings recession over the last year. So earnings momentum is definitely there. But it's all about reality and expectations. And I think the expectations are now a little bit higher than they were given a couple of quarters ago. For the S&P 500 at least. >> Adam I know you can't talk specific names, but I am interested if you pop up in the hood of the SPX, are there sectors, technically speaking, that you think look more attractive? Adam >> Right now we like communication services. We think it provides a good barbell in terms of mega-cap exposure, but you also get some of the more defensive qualities and the legacy telecom names that looks attractive. Industrials is another theme that we like when you think about infrastructure spending also has a bit of an AI play with data center. Not only the build outs but storage. And then energy is a more defensive play. It's relatively cheap compared to the broader market, great free cash flows in that sector and a likely spot for a rotation if we see some money come out of tech. >> What? Turning to the sticking with those technicals though, Adam. What you know, looking at the sectors which which ones would you avoid avoid here at least near to intermediate term. >> Yeah. Right now we think healthcare is going to be a laggard. That was a recent downgrade from our House view. It's consistent underperformer even though it does have some defensive qualities. Right now we're just not seeing it on the technicals. Continues to put new lows in versus the S&P 500. So that would be an area we avoid. >> Adam thanks so much. Good to see you. >> Thanks for having me. >> Let's talk about another stock that we are watching today was AMC finishing Monday's trading session firmly in the green, up by about 8% following another strong weekend at the box office. Solid sales of new merch also helping. That's according to CEO Adam Aron and Yahoo Finance's Alexandra Canal joins us now with the details. Despicable me four. >> Yeah, are your kids fans of Despicable Me Julie. >> They're fine with it. They're aging up a little bit. What about what about you Josh no no no no not yet not anti I just think it's over her head still. >> Well maybe she'll be a fan of Despicable five, 6 or 7 because there probably will be those coming considering how well this film is already doing. So far so good. It debuted over the long 4th of July holiday. It's grossed about 230 million worldwide, which did include 122 million over the domestic holiday weekend. As well. But that's not all, according to that tweet from CEO Adam Aron, the film lured in 4 million guests and was the most attended Wednesday through Sunday of 2024. The merch also was really important with sales of that merch. The second biggest ever for AMC, and that's behind the Taylor Swift Eras Tour movie. Remember that movie that debuted last year? Apparently a lot of people want to get those Despicable Me minions. >> That's what they're get buying. >> I was going to ask what the merch was. >> Is the minions. I guess they think they're really cute. They want to buy that. And, you know, considering the Taylor Swift movie, they probably sold a lot of t shirts, things like that that fans were doing. So this is a success. Also, food and beverage was really strong as well. And that's something that you sometimes forget about. When we talk about a lot of these theater chains, that's not just about the ticket sales. It's also everything else that comes along with it. Of course, we talk about AMC. It's one of those stocks that normally has some volatile swings. It's one of the OG meme darlings. Not always tied to fundamentals, but box office performance is fundamental to this company. And when you think about the box office overall, especially as we kicked off the summer season, it was a bit of a rocky start, but we seem to be finding our footing with the box office, not just Despicable Me, but also inside Out two performing really well. So a lot of those animate, family friendly movies seem to be outperforming this summer. We'll see how that carries through to the rest of the year. >> You know, it's funny, I'm looking at Cinemark. Those shares were up just a half of 1% today. Yeah. Maybe you know what the difference is I mean CEO doesn't tweet. >> Yes I was I was just about to say that I mean, you have the CEO basically touting how successful this was. You have to think, oh, that must be a really great weekend for a company like AMC. But and normally when we have strong box office results overall, we'll see a trickle throughout all of the big box office chains. AMC is the largest, especially in the United States. But but again, it's we're not totally out of the woods yet. When you think about the box office at large, you probably will never be back to where we were pre-pandemic. So it's just a new business. And because of that, you kind of have to have a new business model to. And I think the food and beverage, the merch, that's a big thing as well. >> And tweeting to people who like meme stocks. Exactly I mean that legitimately. That's part of the business model at this point for Kitty Army approved. >> That doesn't hurt. All right. >> Thanks, Ali. Appreciate it. Coming up, the U.S. has a big time debt problem, but who is footing the bill? More market domination, overtime coming up. >> Ever wonder why a stock suddenly drops double digits? >> Or Bitcoin unexpectedly hits record highs? >> We're unpacking the catalyst driving daily market action and explaining the chain reaction. Why are oil prices trending lower despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, or why a company's stock is up even though it missed on earnings? >> Insight from top strategists, economists and business leaders will help you make the smartest choices for your portfolio. >> This is catalyst. >> Tune in daily at 10 a.m. Eastern on Yahoo Finance. >> Americans have a $35 trillion question on their hands. Who is going to pay for our nation's ballooning national debt? Joining us now is Yahoo Finance's Rick Newman. You know Rick I always assumed it was it was me frankly. And my kid. But who else. >> Well it is going to be you and your kid and me and all of us really. Neither of the candidates this year Joe Biden, if he remains a candidate on the Democratic side and Donald Trump on the Republican side, is really leveling with voters about this, no politician really does. And the reason is pretty obvious. There's nothing for anybody to like in how we solve the problem. And there's a lot for everybody to hate. Now there's a new analysis out by a budget expert at the Manhattan Institute named Bruce Riedel. He does some good work on this, on this issue, and he has come up with a way to address the problem of the national debt. And that doesn't mean paying the whole thing down. That's kind of impossible, but it means just stabilizing the debt at about 100% of GDP, which is around where it is now, in other words, preventing it from growing much more in the future. And here are some of the ways he says that things we're going to have to do in order to do that, they're going to have to be benefit cuts in Social Security and Medicare for wealthier participants in those programs. He would make no changes for people who are in the 40, the lowest 40% of households in terms of earnings. There But some serious changes for wealthier seniors. And let's keep in mind a lot, you know, a lot of a lot of seniors don't have a mortgage anymore. They own their home outright or they have a very small mortgage payment. They don't have childcare burdens. And there are a lot of people who have, you know, millions of dollars in savings and yet they generally qualify for all the Medicare and Social Security benefits that are on schedule, that that's just going to have to change. I think that's simple math. Brian Randall does also include, some increases in individual income taxes for the wealthiest Americans. There are some modest changes in business taxes that would take away some tax breaks and some other changes, there's nothing draconian in this plan, such as for example, a value added tax or what's basically like a federal income tax, which would raise a lot of revenue all at once. And I think that's the point of this plan, which is that if you just do a certain number of things and do them fairly soon, including things that a lot of people are not going to like, you might actually be able to address this problem without having to overhaul the entire tax system or have massive tax cuts or tax hikes. I mean, or something that would cause a recession. So this problem is solvable. There are many other analyzes that show the same thing. It's solvable. We just need politicians who are willing to tackle it. >> What will be the catalyst that will tip them in the direction of doing that? I mean, what what would constitute a crisis that would force action? >> Well, I think it is going to take a crisis. I mean, there have been warnings about this for the last 20 years, maybe 30 years, and Congress has done nothing except make the, you know, borrow even more money and make the debt even higher. So the crisis, if it happens, if it if it gets to that point, in other words, if Congress and the next president or the one after that, just don't do anything, what the debt crisis is going to look like this, the U.S. Treasury is going to be issuing so much debt that there aren't going to be enough investors out in the world willing to buy it, we've seen a few wobbles in the market for Treasury securities within the last 12 months. Nothing like what I just described. But the Treasury has begun to alter the way it sells securities, changing the duration of the note of the notes and bills that it's selling for example, and do some things to make sure those auctions go smoothly. If the if the Treasury gets to the point that there just aren't enough people to buy all of that debt, and that, you know, the market for debt is not bottomless in the world, we might we might get getting close to the limit. Then the only thing that can happen then is, interest rates go up and they might go up by a lot. And if you try to do stuff like federal Reserve money printing or other types of money printing, then you get inflation. So if you really screw this up, you could get soaring interest rates and runaway inflation. And that would certainly make everybody disgusted, more disgusted than ever with all the politicians, and that might be what it take. I mean, if you were running a business, you probably wouldn't want to do that. But that is the way we run the country. >> And, Rick, just, switching gears here a bit, you know, President Biden seems to be kind of doubling down here. Rick, pushing back on these calls we've been seeing, to get out to drop out of this race. What are you thinking, Rick? I just wanted to get an update on where you are right now on this. >> I mean, the battle is clearly on within the Democratic Party, and, you know, I think it's fair to say that the odds of Biden dropping out, I don't think there's any reason to think he would resign as president. But there is a obviously a chance that he would withdraw as the 2024 presidential candidate. I mean, those odds have clearly been going up. But this all of this, tension might actually be pushing us to a to a new and a better place that we needed to get to anyway, which is that Biden is now under intense pressure to get out in public more and prove he has to prove that he is not the feeble old guy that we saw in the debate on June 27th. So he supposedly is going to do another press conference this week. I think that demands for this type of thing will just intensify. He has done very, very few press conferences or live interviews where he's really been on the spot and he's had to be able to show that he can muster thoughts quickly and, Perry, any kind of accusations leveled against him and that he's, you know, sharp enough to fight this kind of fight. He needs to fight against Trump. Trump, as we learned from the June 27th debate, one thing Trump can do is he can still attack. He's still very agile on the attack. So Biden needs to be agile on the defense and on the counterattack. And, you know, I think this would be a good development if we just see Biden coming out much more than he has before. Not reading off the teleprompter as much, talking to ordinary people, ad hominem exchanges with people. And let's let's really test this guy and see if he's up to it. >> We shall see. Rick. >> Thank you. >> Hi, guys. >> Let's go back to Marcus here and talk about emerging markets in particular because they're catching the eye of Investors Global for one noting a significant pickup in interest in emerging markets as it steps out from the shadow of developed markets. >> Malcolm Dawson global senior portfolio Manager joining us now to discuss. So, Malcolm, start with what you're hearing from clients on emerging markets here and why you think there's been a pickup in interest? >> Sergio, thanks for having me, well I think a few reasons. First of all, investors have been dramatically underweight emerging markets for the past decade. And it's really worked. We've seen a lot of success based off of US exceptionalism. But now emerging markets are getting to the point where valuations are just too compelling to ignore, we're now the also seen a little bit of momentum being the second or third best performing asset class in the world year to date. And in addition to that, people are looking for different opportunities, whether it be alpha generation, portfolio diversification or just plain old US dollar hedge. Given the concentration of performance that we've seen in the US thus far this year. >> So Malcolm, let's dig into some of these opportunities. You kind of divide the Malcolm into into different buckets here. So in your structural opportunity bucket for example, you like India. Make the case there Malcolm. Why India. And also by the way do you think it's do you think it's sort of fair the way that people compare India to China or. No. Do you think they're just too different economically and demographicall. >> Yeah. No problem. Thanks. Josh, you can compare it, but end of the day, it's an easy comparison because I think it's a better opportunity. Unlike most opportunities in emerging markets right now, this is something that you buy for your grandchildren. I mean, India is growing 6 to 7% GDP for the next five years with EPs at 15 to 20. And importantly, Indian companies have the opportunity to reinvest this growth in these earnings into, compounding opportunities. Really profitable return profiles between 16 and 18. And then kind of bringing it back to that comparison versus China. India now has a larger population than China, a younger population than China. It's benefiting from this. You know, multinationals are looking for global supply chain, diverse diversification outside of China and in addition to that, this is all being run by a democratically elected government, which I think brings a lot of assurance in terms of governance to investors. >> I to just zero in on China for a moment does China does the China risk change under a Trump versus Biden presidency? >> I don't think so at this point. I mean, it's really difficult big picture to make predictions on China right now. I think it has been for the past four years. But in terms of what's happening from a US domestic perspective, it seems like both candidates are are kind of competing on who can be more hawkish and who can be tougher on China. So from that perspective, I think a lot of investors are looking for either single country opportunities, just investing in India or just investing in a country like Brazil or emerging markets. Ex-china strategies. And then in terms of China, where they're finding opportunity, are areas that are less reliant on the rest of the world, less reliant on the West and where they find an alignment of interest with the Chinese Communist Party. And that's mainly Chinese consumption. >> And just Malcolm just drilling down on Brazil for a bit. There because I know that's another opportunity to see how come Malcolm and I'm also interested how that you know, how has that economy sort of developed and evolved, Malcolm, over say, you know, the next the last 5 or 10 years? >> Sure, it's a great question. It's been moving with politics and it's been a political pendulum, we've seen some great things in terms of reforms, tax reform, fiscal reform, state owned enterprise reform, reforms to the central bank, and a lot of positive steps. And from a big picture perspective, but at the end of the day, Brazil is still a very cyclical story. And at this point, I mean, it's been a roller coaster. Brazil is up over 20% in the fourth quarter. We're down almost 20% in the first half of this year. So it's created another window of opportunity for people to step in. But right now, I think this could be the best trade over the next 6 to 12 months. I mean, this is based off of very discounted valuations, a very advanced monetary policy cycle. The central bank's already cut interest rates 325 basis points. And really significant exposure to a robust commodity base. But let me just take a quick pause there. You guys had Rick on a little earlier before this segment, and he was talking about the risks of ballooning U.S. national debt. And big picture, if you have any concern about national debt in the United States or the direction of the US dollar, which has been amazingly strong, the past decade plus, Brazil is a fantastic hedge against that. And historically speaking, for every 1% weaker US dollar move, Brazilian equities have popped 5. So I think from that perspective, it's really interesting as well. >> Well, and I also wanted to ask you, between about the traditional relationship between emerging markets and US interest rates, right. At a time when it looks like rates are going to go lower, maybe before the end of the year. Right, is that something that tends to be a catalyst as well for emerging markets? >> It does. I think it's a really good point, because at the beginning of this year, we were all so enthusiastic and excited about interest rate cuts in the United States and the spillover into international and emerging markets. We were thinking first cuts in March. We're going to get seven cuts this year. Fantastic. And since then, all we've heard is kind of more hawkish rhetoric kicking the can down the road higher for longer. But despite all of that, I mean M should be having a pretty bad year. But it's the best third. It's the third best performing asset class year to date. And gold prices are up. Copper prices are up. Oil prices are up and assets are up across the board. And that tells me that this rally is based off of more structural factors. Supply and demand, CapEx cycles, expansionary PMI across the board. And if, if when we do get interest rate cuts, that's just going to add fuel to the fire. So I think that we could be at the very beginning of a really interesting cyclical upswing. >> Malcolm, super interesting conversation. Thanks so much for joining the show. Really appreciate it. >> Thank you Josh. Thanks, Juli. >> Time now for what to watch. Tuesday, July 9th. Starting off on the fed. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is on Capitol Hill starting two days of congressional testimony tomorrow. Powell is going to be speaking in front of the Senate Banking Committee in the morning. This committee is coming after committee member Elizabeth Warren sent a letter to Powell last week criticizing him for having private meetings with top Bank executives and accusing Powell of giving them too much influence over fed policy. Central bank responding, saying it received the letter and plans to respond. >> And we'll be getting some commentary from Fed Vice Chair for supervision Michael Barr and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman throughout the day as well. Bowman reiterating last week that now is not the right time to cut and saying there needs to be clearer inflation data and taking a look at the economy, the latest small Business Optimism index for June is coming out in the morning. >> Economists forecasting that number to tick down slightly after two straight months of increases in April and May. >> And that'll do it for today's market domination overtime. Be sure to come back tomorrow at 3 p.m. eastern for all of your coverage leading up to and after the closing bell. >> But don't go anywhere on the other side of the break. It's asking for a trend. I've got you covered for the next half hour with the latest and greatest market moving stories, so you can get ahead of the themes affecting your money. Stay tune. Hi. Hello and welcome to Ask Me for a trend. I'm Josh Lipton. For the next half hour, we're going to be breaking down the trends of today that will move stocks tomorrow. There is a lot to keep track of. So we're focusing on what you need to know to get ahead of the curve. Here are some of the trends we're going to be diving into. Biden doubling down. The president pushing back on calls to leave the 2024 race today as lawmakers returned to Capitol Hill, a candidate change could spike market uncertainty, of course, but in the near term, investors have a slew of economic data and earnings results at the forefront of their minds. Plus Bitcoin fighting to stay above $55,000 in a volatile day of trading. Significant selling pressure continues to mount against the cryptocurrency as the German government offloads its holdings and creditors await the latest moves from the Mount Gox bankruptcy estate and a cooling labor market has meant workers are less likely to take risks by voluntarily leaving for new roles, but that does not mean the employees who are staying put are feeling fulfilled. We're taking a closer look at the trends at play in the workplace. Bitcoin continues to sink today, but crypto digital asset products are seeing inflows for the first time in weeks. For more on the cryptocurrency landscape, we're now bringing in David Bailey. He is CEO of BTC Inc and organizer at the Bitcoin conference. David, it is good to see you. So you think about this year David. You know Bitcoin. Of course you had that strong first quarter. Everybody very excited about those new spot Bitcoin ETFs now lately David you know not as much. You know first and foremost is it is it Mount Gox. Is that the primary issue here David. That's been causing some selling pressure. >> Well first off Josh thank you for having me on the show. And I have to say investors are still very excited about the Bitcoin ETF. Thank God we have the Bitcoin ETFs because it's been a brutal week of selling from the German government and from and Mount Gox bankruptcy claims finally paying out after ten years. And so those ETFs are actually absorbing a lot of the liquidity blow. That's happening right now. So we're about two thirds of the way through the German government just dumping their bitcoin, and we're eager to see it concluded. But I think that will wrap up probably next week. >> What would you say. You know, David, you look ahead to potential kind of near to intermediate term catalysts. You know, what would you be looking for? Is it, you know, a dovish fed a rate cut or two. Would that help? >> You know, I think there's probably two major catalysts that are driving the Bitcoin action right now. First off, we just had a bitcoin halving that occurred in April, historically every Bitcoin halving has caused a supply shock with Bitcoin and so the these are kind of the precursors to what makes the price of bitcoin dramatically rise over, you know, the next two years. And so a lot of people in our industry are very eagerly watching that that play out. It takes time for the supply shock to really bake into the market dynamics, and then the second kind of new catalyst, I'd say, is the political environment for Bitcoin, just today, details were released about the RNC's official platform, as it relates to Bitcoin and crypto. And for the first time ever, Bitcoin is one of the key components of a major political party's, platform. So I think that there's a lot of positive developments to come on the on the political and geopolitical side that are really kind of brand new catalysts for our industry. >> And just let's stick with politics, David, because my understanding is you actually met, former president, Trump. I'm just curious how that came about. David what did you guys talk about? >> Yeah, we talked to bitcoin mining. We talked, how Bitcoin is aligned with the president's agenda for, energy independence for energy abundance, for, America first, to really dominate what's a, strategic asset of the United States. So, the president is, is very aligned with, the Bitcoin industry and sees the opportunity that Bitcoin offers the United States and also the risk you know, a lack of action, would bring about as well. So, it was a very fruitful conversation, it's also where, you know, the president and his his classic style coined the term, we want Bitcoin made in America. So, it was a very successful it's interesting, David, because you have, as you're pointing out, rightfully I mean, you're seeing this I mean, crypto has become an issue in this election. >> And it's interesting to see Trump, positioning himself as an ally of the crypto community. Do you think that works, David? Do you think he'll win over the crypto community? >> Yeah, absolutely. It's already happening. You know, there are 70 million people that own bitcoin or crypto, in the United States. And there's an old political adage that people vote their pocketbook. Now, digital assets. Bitcoin is people's pocketbook. And so when they're making an analysis of who they're going to vote for, there's a lot of single issue voters that their number one priority is what's going to be good for the value of my portfolio. And so when you look at the two candidates right now, Trump has done a really amazing job at, at, making himself stand out as really the only candidate to pick. So, you know, we've we are trying to raise $100 million for the president's reelection effort, and we're trying to turn out 5 million votes, swing votes, in this upcoming election. And so I think, you know, Bitcoin is really having its political moment. >> David, I'm also curious. I want to get you out of this. When you talk to your friends and family, and maybe they don't own Bitcoin and they're thinking about it, what do you tell them? What's the reason you say buy bitcoin. Do you say David store of value. Do you say medium of exchange? What's the story you tell them? >> You know, it's a little bit of all of it I think. You know you you kind of cater the message of Bitcoin to, who the buyer is. You know, there's different things that intrigue people about the technology. You know, personally, I think what's what's most exciting is like we, we live in a, in a world that's very fractured our monetary system is very fractured. Globally, Bitcoin represents a fresh start, the ability to rebuild, and re-architect our monetary system for the world on a clean infrastructure. And so when I, when I look at Bitcoin I make the case the of bitcoin as, as kind of the primary asset of a of a future monetary system. And you know at fundamentally it's the number go up story. It's like what is one Bitcoin theoretically worth. If Bitcoin fulfills its potential as as you know the new monetary system David, it was great to have you on the show. >> Thanks for making time for us. >> Yeah. >> Josh, thank you for having me on Yahoo Finance's Jared Blikre joins us now with more on the trading day takeaways Jared. >> Well since the Mag seven is the entire market I'm noticing some rotation in the Mag seven and that is underway. >> And let me explain I'm going to show you first our Megacap heat map here. Not this I'll pull that up. And what we can see is a rotating cast of characters. Not all green, not all red. In fact, Apple today was the only stock only member of this group, at least of the ones on the left that closed at a record high. You can see Nvidia here coming back into the fore, but Nvidia hasn't made a record high in probably about two weeks. Now let me just show the year to date chart there. And you can see it's been kind of going sideways here. And I'd bring up the fact that last year Nvidia was going sideways for most of the year, about half of it. So this is something that happens. But meanwhile when Nvidia was kind of taking a back seat, guess who made record highs last week? It was alphabet. Amazon Microsoft I believe meta was in there too. So you're not seeing that in Tesla. But even Tesla had its run in the sun. So Tesla's pretty far away from a break. Yeah Tesla is pretty far away from a record high. But here's a five year chart. Finally getting to some interesting levels here. Yeah. >> And now let's stick with tech Jared because you on this very show have been also talking to us about the drama the saga chips versus software. Where are we there. >> Well I'll tell you where we are chips today are beating software today. But this is another aspect of the rotation that's going on. It's a healthy part of the market or a healthy aspect of the market. You can see Nvidia there. That's a leader. Obviously that's up almost 2. But Avgo Broadcom up 2.5. Just seeing a lot of performance. And then you contrast that from the view that we get when we look at software. Well that's another story. But I'll tell you what you look at the year to date totals. You're going to see lots of green on the screen, a little bit of red, very similar situation for the semiconductors, maybe a little bit less red, maybe a little bit more green. But that's what you want to see. And it's this rotation that I'm talking about isn't limited to tech. Now we haven't seen like financials and industrials really perk up recently. But that's what they did last year when the mega when the Mag seven finally took a back seat they stepped up. So that's what we want to see. Is it going to happen this time. >> All right Jared Blikre takeaway point number two. >> You bet. Are we only on number two right now. All right, I'll go a little faster. Record earnings expectations. Now here's a very simple chart. This goes back to kind of December 2021 S&P 500 earnings expectations. They are at a record now $259 per share. That's the Ford 12 month target there. And what's interesting you can see this bottomed right around the change of the new year at the beginning of last year. But stocks actually bottomed in October. This is forward looking. You can probably ship this forward 3 or 6 months. So what this is telling me is there's still gas in the tank for earnings to run. >> And when you look at this is this all. This is all big tech. This is all mag seven. >> You know it's not necessarily there's a lot more going on in here. I was just showing some heat maps with the other mag seven. I do expect some of these stocks, some of these other groups to perk up, but who's to say when that's going to happen? What I am encouraged by is that we're seeing a breadth expansion in earnings expectations. And let me break that down. So if you take all the components of the of the S&P 500, over 80% of them have experienced earnings revision to the upside over the last three months. So that's all gas in the tank for the next three months. >> All right Jerry Booker final Takeaway. >> Let's get to it. Yes. >> All right Sam rule close to being triggered. >> Let's do it. Sam. >> That is a recession rule. And so I did the back. I'm not going to go over the exact formula, but if unemployment ticks up to 4.2% the next month or the month after. So we're talking about the July readings in the August readings that could green light the fed, cutting rates in September, and that is ahead of an election year or ahead of an election. But this is such good cover that the fed could probably get away with that. And I would expect if the rule does trigger, I think people will say, Jay Powell, why are you not cutting already? And some people are already doing that quickly. >> Jared, astute viewers would ask you, how does the yield curve inversion compare here? Which which can also signal recession yield? >> Okay, so the Sam rule is immediate. When you when you see the Sam rule trigger, you are at the beginning of the recession. The yield curve inversion doesn't take place for maybe a year up to two years. And by the way, the yield curve has been inverted two years. I think that's a record so hasn't really fired off just the yield curve, hasn't fired off the recession. The typical way that we're looking for. But the Sam rule could show us that we're in it in a month. >> Chips mag seven Samuel. It's all there. Thank you buddy. Appreciate it. Coming up, the great resignation may be behind us, but what does that mean for companies as more workers voluntarily stay put, more asking for a trend on the other side. First we saw the great resignation. Now workers are staying put. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, JOLTS report, the number of quits was down 500,000 in May compared to a year ago. The quits rate typically serves as a signal for how willing workers are to test the labor market waters, and voluntarily making the leap to a new role. Joining me now is Jessica Kriegel, chief scientist of workplace culture at Culture Partners. Jessica it is good to see you. And, you know, on this trend. Jessica, there was this this very good, smart article in the Journal which talked about how increasingly people feel stuck in their jobs. You know, the labor market is cooling, declining turnover, fewer internal moves. People feel stuck if viewers are watching this, Jessica, and they feel stuck. Any advice for them? Jessica. What what could they d? What should they do? >> Well, the music is stopping. And in the game of musical chairs, you want to have a seat. Which is why we're seeing the quit rates, slow down. Because ultimately, we have to be able to pay our rent and pay our mortgage. And the opportunities are not as out there as they used to be. So what does that mean for you? To answer your question, if your listener is feeling stuck, I mean, you may be stuck. Acceptance is perhaps the first step in allowing yourself to be okay with being stuck, because sometimes that is the nature of the cycle that we're in. And that's where you are. There's also something that you can do as an employee when it comes to advocating for yourself. If you're not being paid fair wages, you can show your value to your manager and ask for that increase. If the culture on your team doesn't feel very good, you can influence the culture yourself. We're all co-creating culture together. This isn't just a CEO led thing, so you can take initiative to make that better internally. But the reality is some people are stuck and we might just have to be okay with that. >> Are there? You know, Jessica, I would also think, are there moves though an employer can make? You know, an employer doesn't want people feeling stuck. I mean, that just leads to people feeling disengaged. I mean, are there things employers could do? Can they get more creative, you know, can they, you know, have people move to different cities or, you know, experiment on different teams? >> Yeah, I mean, I think all of those kind of perks and benefits are things that CEOs are trying right now. But if you want to get to the core of a culture of accountability, where people are taking initiative, where they're driving results and they're passionate about it, you have to think about how people are, what they believe in the workplace, right? So many leaders are focusing on what can we do? Maybe we move people. Maybe we let them work from home. Maybe we give them this benefit. But what is it that they believe about the value that they're creating? Their importance in the workplace, whether or not they're on a team that really cares about what you're doing and the way that you influence beliefs at work is through the experiences that you co-create for each other. So I would dig deeper as a leader if I were trying to motivate my employees and think about the employee experience that they're having every single day, and what experiences I can improve to drive the right beliefs so that they really care. Because if I'm a CEO, I want a team of people who deeply care. If I want to drive shareholder value are there may be some employers. >> Jessica, I'm just, you know, spitballing here who are listening and saying, you know, the economy is slowing. You can see that in all kinds of data. Now, the labor market is cooling, frankly. You know, they may say you should just be thankful you have a job. Is that is that the right attitude, the wrong attitude? How do you think about it? >> I mean, it's not the attitude that I would want to have as a CEO, but it's not necessarily ineffective, right? I mean, at times that is the problem with these economic cycles, is that we invest in people when we can, and then we divest when we can, and so if you have short term thinking and you're just trying to get to the end of the quarter end of the year, then yeah, let people be, let them be. I mean, sometimes leaders actually do this intentionally so that their employees will go. They want to increase attrition. And you're seeing also increased layoffs right now. So I mean, that is because people are trying to weed out all of the people who aren't putting in that extra effort as an employee. Show value, show your worth and you'll be able to hold on to that job a little bit longer. >> Big important trend and theme. >> Jessica, thank you for helping us walk through it. Appreciate it. >> Thanks for having me. >> And coming up, earnings season kicks off later this week and expectations sky high. We're going to take a look next in our chart of the day. Today. The S&P 500 hit its 35th record close this year. And with earnings season set to kick off later this week, expectations are also near all time highs. Yahoo Finance's Julie Hyman joins me now with a closer look. >> Yeah with our chart of the day here which comes to us courtesy of Bloomberg. >> That looked at some of this data. So you know we have seen these record closes one after the other. You earlier talked about it as a very slow sort of melt up. I think Ed Yardeni is the one who talked about that. And indeed, that's what it felt like here. It's not today. The gain in the S&P 500 was only a 10th of 1, but those little gains day by day is a steady melt upward that has caused all of these record highs. Now it has happened at the same time that we have seen profit expectations. Ratchet up and up and up in recent quarters. Those profit expectations were a little more muted, perhaps easier to beat. That might be a higher bar once we start getting companies reporting in earnest starting this Friday with the big banks. And so this is one of the reasons that some strategists have been pointing to as perhaps a cause for caution. Mike Wilson, who's been a longtime, cautious strategist on Wall Street over at Morgan Stanley, had talked about a potential pullback that we might see as a result of this. Adam Turnquist of LPL, who we talked to earlier today, said it's possible in the short term that we would see a pullback. But then we also talked to Barbara Duran of BDA. And she is still pretty optimistic here. >> At some point there's going to be a pullback. We know that. And what we've seen so far year to date though it's been shallow. And I think that's what's going to happen here because the underlying fundamentals are positive. The economy is slowing down. People are glad to see that. It means the fed you know, is restrictive. And they will admit that. And that's working. >> So there you hear Barbara saying, even if there is a pullback it's not going to be a dramatic one. So even though you've got perhaps stocks getting a little the rally that we've seen getting a little bit long in the tooth. And Josh there are a lot of reasons for that that people are pointed to as well, that are underlying reasons why it might not last, including the lack of breath in the market. But you still have some optimism out there and some optimism. >> Julie, we've been talking to some strategists and they'll talk earnings. They'll also talk about how, you know, increasingly some investors think, you know what. We get this weaker than expected economic data okay. They think maybe it just means Jay Powell cuts. >> As long as it's not too weak. I think that's really the caveat here is that it has to be in this sort of delicate middle zone. Right. I mean, but to your point, you know, folks like John Stolfus over at Oppenheimer raised his forecast for the S&P 500 to 5900. So we are still getting that phenomenon of the forecast continuing to go higher. Even as there are, you know, warning signs that others are flagging, at least in the short term. But for the full year, there's still a lot of optimism out there for sure. >> Thank you. Julie And that is a wrap on today's ask for a trend. Be sure to come back tomorrow at 4:30 p.m. eastern for all of the latest market moving stories affecting your wallet. Have a great night! |
uvvek0s-0S0 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uvvek0s-0S0 | 2024-07-05 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | How investors can reposition their portfolios for Q2 earnings | well markets mixed here today after both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ hit fresh intraday record highs we kick off the second half of the year that happened this week and you might want to rebalance your portfolio to stay on track to discuss let's bring in Keith Buchanan Global Investments senior portfolio manager here with us all right so let's talk about this second half Playbook here Keith where are you seeing some rotation take place and where perhaps are investors leaning further in to their portfolio trade thank you very much for having me we're looking at the second half of this year as a um an opportunity again as you mentioned to to to rebalance a bit we've been really concentrating on large cap growth we've uh been in position our clients have benefited uh from that positioning but now we're looking to becoming a little more balanced as U it's coming into this earning season which we think is critically important every earning season important but this one is critically important to as bull market on um because of the the 10 largest names sp500 uh generate very large disproportionate amount of the growth as well um so as those NES have performed and have grown into those multiples we feel like that's going to become more and more challenging into the second half of this year into 2025 U so this earning season is really going to be a barometer for where those 10 seven to 10 names or so uh will contribute to to guidance andp 500 earnings in 2024 and 2025 um that have baked down a lot of growth and a lot of that come from those those top largest names in the sp500 Keith it's been a a a hot Nvidia year could be a hot Nvidia summer who knows I mean as we're thinking about some of this specific overcrowded trades that investors have piled into were you anticipating that we could see a shift at least in the mindset of where some investors who might have been talking about their own portfolio and trading strategy the barbecue over the past couple days are trying to figure out okay I've seen insiders taking some profits should I be taking profits too how can investors know when it is the right time to take profits and reallocate them um we've seen you know large SC growth technology um artificial intelligence oriented names um just really become uh make the market really topheavy um and and we're looking at spaces outside of that we again we've been positioned for that for some time now um but they're looking spaces like um the consumer which is really driving you know this Market really kept us out of recession for the last four years of um you know a turbulent Market environment um the middle to Haw and consumers is doing a little better than uh those on the ends um we feel like Costco actually is a name that benefits from that um that shift in in in spending that's remain more steady with the high and middle income earners as well Financial we feel like the steepening of the yield curve has really made those names prop up a bit over the last couple of weeks um of course we're coming into you know when those names the money center Banks start to report um and we're positioned um to benefit from some of that as well so we look we looking at financials some names and and consumer driven names a couple Industrials as well that might be oriented as as value stocks um but we feel like a position to take the mantle of this bull market um as the top 10 names of the F of The Magnificent 7 if you will um coming to some earnings stresses that might hamper those performances from those names going for in the second half of this year Keith what do you believe the prevailing theme for the earnings season that we're about to go into could be is this growth real the bottom up expectation is for 9% growth in 2024 a large portion of that the majority of that is coming in the second half of this year um without the top 10 s sp500 names that growth expected to be about 6% so almost a little over a third of that is coming from just a few names um there will be a lot of attention on the apples and Nvidia and and Microsoft of the world and rightfully so because as if that earnings growth is five instead of Nine the multiple of the market completely changes um so there's a lot of riding on this earning season particular for those few names um as the S&P 500 again has been priced for tremendous growth frankly over the second half this year and next year whether we can fulfill that expectation as yet to be seen to what extent just lastly while we have you Keith to what extent is the general election here in the US a wrench in portfolios coming into uh what is expected to be another vitriolic type of event here in the US um politics has been inter interwoven in market dynamics for some time now um we think this year is going to be one of those Banner years where politics dictates the the movements and fixed income and Equity markets particularly in the US also from a currency standpoint uh we've seen that change since the debate on on Thursday in a pretty dramatic way it's shifted very hard um in a in a kind of a prot trunp manner on Friday and then some on Monday um but that some much shifted back um in in this week that is really like holiday week so it's really hard to have any main takeaways um but as this second half wears on we will see that become more and more um a focus of of the market place and and those baits bets that have taking place and being placed um depending on the polls will come um you know come to AE in November um I think down ballot as well we've seen some some shifts as far as where spending could be and what it um you know what parts of the market can benefit from that um also being an opportunity and potentially even a challenge for some parts of the uh Equity Market those B again it's it's fairly early to to place the and really have hard takeaways from from where we are right now politically um we kind of shy away from that until things come into more Focus later in the fall U we think the earnings driver really the was pushing markets um back and forth especially from a monetary policy standpoint as well um we saw the job's report this morning how that plays into what the federal reserve's reaction function may be and how that might change coming into the fall um that's that's we feel like a more predominant uh dictator of the direction of markets at this point certainly Keith Buchanan Global investment senior portfolio manager great to see you Keithan thanks so much for joining us today thank you |
rU2BSGtI_N0 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rU2BSGtI_N0 | 2024-07-05 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Americans' retirement savings surged by 19%: Vanguard report | we've all heard Americans are struggling to save for retirement but are they the average retirement account balance increased by 19% last year that's compared to 2022 and more than 4 in 10 people raised the amount of money they set aside into their 401K accounts according to a Vanguard report to discuss the study Yahoo finances very own Carrie Hannon is here hey Carrie hey Brad great to be here yeah I mean we all hear so much Doom and Gloom about people not saving enough for retirement or being woefully behind that this just was very encouraging to see a Vanguard take a look back at 2023 and they saw some really positive optimistic Trends people were saving more and people were contributing more to their accounts and so you know let's break down what this happened uh what what sort of is behind all of this and the biggest trend is auto enrollment and auto escalation and what that means is employers automatically put people into their their um employer provided retirement account their 401k and then they raise it up each year so it kind of gets away from that inertia of people not making that decision to get rolling and to increase the amount this has done a huge uh amount in pushing people to save more and I think it's a really great Trend employers have also doubled the amount uh that they contribute as a match uh to 4% or more it used to decade ago it was about half of that so that's fantastic um news as well and the second thing that's behind it Brad in many ways is target funds I mean target funds have become you know they absolutely rule the day now and most people are in these target funds which as as the listeners know and the viewers know it's set and forget right you you make your investment and then as the markets go up and down and as you age they gradually reduce your risk say you say you're going to retire in 2035 then as you get towards that date it goes from equities down to more fixed income and it really helps people not trade as much which is quite good for these accounts because there's not a lot of shaking up and for younger workers Vanguard um has found that it's super helpful because they used to be not um invested enough in equities and so as a result they lost out on growth and this helps them get in at a better uh a better sort of composition of the retirement account for their future so that's great news they um another study I looked at Trans America showed that you know younger workers are actually starting to save for retirement at age 20 gen Z and that compares to 25 for Millennials and you know uh Gen X started at 30 or so so we're seen a movement that start saving earlier which I absolutely love um now before I get too crazy I got to say there was one sort of caveat to the the Vanguard report I need to mention is that more people than ever Out rated their retire account so this is a small percentage but I've got to tell you it's worth looking at and a concern and they did it mostly probably prompted by inflation for medical bills and housing expenses but as we know if you do that if you B if you withdraw from your retirement account for these things and there are some exceptions uh to this rule but but you generally are if you're not 59 and a half you're going to pay a 10% penalty and you're going to pay tax and that money is gone so those are just a couple of things that that that kind of ated out of that and my final point is that even though I'm so excited to see these positive numbers for once the fact is half of Americans still do not uh who work in the private sector do not have access to an employer provided retirement plan and what that means is they really do have to voluntarily you know jump in and get going Carrie Hannon a lot of gems from that study appreciate you breaking it down for us thanks so much Carrie thanks Brad |
BcVsl6Ffgu8 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BcVsl6Ffgu8 | 2024-07-05 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Auto Loans 101: 3 must-know tips for car buyers | if you're in the market for a new car getting the right auto loan is important for keeping your budget intact here with some auto loan tips is Yahoo finance contributor and host of financial freestyle on Yahoo finance Ross Mac hey Ross how you doing brother I'm good I'm good okay so what do people need to be keeping in mind as they're trying to make sure that affordability is being prioritize but also protection and coverage when they're making that auto purchase first things first you got to know your budget when you're in the market for a car right I think when we start thinking about what we're spending our money on quite often we're overspending it especially when it comes to a car A good rule of thumb try not to spend more than 10% of your monthly take-one income right and so just to give you an idea the average car note payment for this year 2024 for a new car is roughly $723 meaning that a person should be making $7,000 take-home income right and so obviously that's not the average so as you can see quite often a person probably will be overspending when it comes to a car unless they're willing to live within their means another thing to think about is you have to prioritize your credit score because that could be the difference in paying you know thousands of dollars just based on Purely the interest rate that you're going to get right and I think another thing as you're thinking about your credit score you want to say what could I be what could I be doing now leading up until that time I purchased my car meaning you don't want to make any new big purchases AKA applying for any new credit you don't want to be closing down any other credit cards or any credit that you have because that's going to just overall make your length of credit history uh lower and another thing to think about is just understanding overall what's your affordability you need to go into the market saying hey you know there other costs associated with that car not just the car note you got insurance you got maintenance you got obviously the interest rate and a few other things gas right and so if someone has a dotted their dotted their eyes crossed their tees everything and secur themselves alone it's now the time to head to the dealership what are some tips that people should follow to make sure that they stay with in their budget when they're making that purchase I love that I think first things first go online and get preapproved going into the dealership I love the the concept of going in there saying hey I've been pre-approved for $60,000 or for whatever the number is right and then that gives you the ability to still stay within that range and not you know be tempted with a few other things right because when you go in there you got to understand that dealer financing often is more EXP expensive right I think you know the the car sales might make more money if you're using dealer financing as opposed to saying oh I'm preapproved here's my paperwork I'm ready to go and so that's something to think about another thing to think about is you know understand those add-ons right that that car salesman hey do you want this extended warranty or do you want this or do you want that it sounds good but just understand how quickly you can have you can go from $50,000 C to $65,000 with a few add-ons so those are the things that I would recommend right do I need the sport package do I need it is it going to get me to work faster this is just a a Tob car Ross thanks so much for taking the time apprciate it great to see you and make sure to check out Financial freestyle on Yahoo finance Mondays 12:00 p.m. Eastern with the man himself Ross maack |
ObUZcToovaU | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ObUZcToovaU | 2024-07-05 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Homebuyers face double whammy in mortgage rates, low inventory | buying a home just became a little bit more expensive mortgage rates hitting their first weekly increased since May this week to break down what you need to know if you're in the market for a new home Jessica LZ who is the National Association of Realtors deputy chief Economist and vice president of research joins us now Jessica great to have you here on the show with us okay so where are we seeing perhaps some continued movement in the housing market especially knowing that a lot of consumers are hearing headlines like housing prices at alltime highs and trying to figure out where their best entry point is yeah so it's really difficult for consumers today and really discouraging actually as we hit the summer months knowing that interest rates are actually back on the climb now we don't know if that's sustained or if we're going to see interest rates really in this range for a substantial period of time and I I think this is probably where we're going to be uh when we think about a home buyer today looking at affordable price points this is where they're having a very difficult time finding housing inventory that has been very tight at very expensive uh price points we are seeing that more buyers are in that market uh because they can afford that uh and we also know that people have a lot of housing Equity so they're able to make these expensive trades certainly and and as we're thinking about how that's playing into the calculus of buying a new home versus buying an existing home where are you seeing that trade-off kind of net Out Among the those perspective buyers so when we think about uh the new Home Market we know that it had been historically a smaller portion of what it is today that being said we know that right now uh we need more Home Building than we currently have housing starts actually have been pretty flat if we think about the last couple of months of data so this is not encouraging when we think about the need for more housing starts to come into the market for new housing inventory if you think about an existing unit there's many people who are locked into these lower interest rates if they financed or refinanced their home at 3.5% versus uh about nearly 7% today we're talking about a very substantial change in that mortgage payment that they may not be willing to do or cannot pay for that change above $700 a month really do you see affordability getting any better as the FED begins to cut interest rates anticipated in the second half of this year well it's all part of the equation certainly mortgage rates if we see them coming down even a little bit could be encouraging news for home buyers but we also know that home prices are continuing to go up in fact if we see mortgage rates come down we could actually see more bidding wars in the housing market today with this really limited housing inventory and that's just part of the equation that perhaps some people may not feel encouraged to jump into right now we look at the housing market today even with interest rates higher we know that 30% of homes are moving over the asking price so if interest rates are cut and then that impacts mortgage rates as well potentially more biders hopping in and then with that bidding war you could see the price having even more of a premium on top of it I mean then at what point would we finally see you know enough of the property that is sold through and for those who may say all right well I'll just build a new home if they have that luxury or are able to do so at what point would you see the the settling of some of that activity and perhaps retrenching to more normalization I would say we need to have several years of homebuilding activity that's quite strong to bring in some equilibrium to the market because the big thing that we have right now is a huge wave of young adults coming into the housing market trying to find their first property at the exact same time that baby boomers are hitting retirement actively in retirement looking for that perfect home as well it's putting a lot of pressure on the housing market right now for limited inventory at the same time that current homeowners are unwilling or unable to be able to move all right I want to end this conversation with some actionable tips for those who are excited they're revved up they're going out to some open houses this weekend what do they need to be keeping in mind Jessica well stay in close touch with your experts you want to make sure that you have your realtor on your side but you also want to make sure that you're keeping in close touch with your mortgage broker to make sure that you can afford the homes that you're looking for all right Jessica Lau is the National Association of Realtors deputy chief Economist and vice president of of research good to have you on the program here with us today Jessica thank you |
hi8J96eCHU0 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hi8J96eCHU0 | 2024-07-05 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | The top job search on ZipRecruiter is blank. Here's why. | in the June jobs report we saw gains in government Health Care social assistance and construction Julia Pollock who is the zip recruiter Chief Economist is here to discuss the industries that are hiring right now great to see you Julia and thanks so much for joining us here on the show today so where are we seeing some moderation and then where are there jobs to be found so we're seeing some moderation on the services side of the economy the private sector is seeing fewer jobs being added uh and the bulk of hiring now is is taking place in government and Healthcare uh you know government hiring is pretty interesting those payrolls have have risen by about 600,000 over the past year that's an extraordinary number uh mostly on the local government side uh part of this has to do with the fact that it's an election year and so all eyes are on the performance of our local public schools and our police departments and there's tremendous Demand on zip recruiter right now for law enforcement skills interesting okay and so of the demand that you are seeing on zip recruiter what are some of the top searches that are being initiated from those that are looking for jobs too so the top search right now is actually a blank search people don't know what they're looking for they don't know what's out there uh we have a lot of new grads hitting the market who uh have you know just finished their training programs in the last couple of weeks and uh don't really know what's out there uh they need help and guidance and that is why AI is increasingly being used uh in in job search to help people discover jobs and to connect them with opportunities that are a good match for their skills and interests what does true normalization look like in in the jobs economy we're having this conversation earlier 4.1% sure the the highest that we've seen in about two years or so but again as we were hearing from some of the economists earlier on during the hours that yo Finance has been live this morning that's just us back to normal so historically this is a you know very resilient robust labor market we've seen job gains of about 177,000 on average the past three months that's actually above what we saw in 2019 when uh we we had job growth of 164,000 a month the issue now though is that the labor market is slackening so in 2019 we saw these kinds of job gains but unemployment was falling because participation wasn't Rising as quickly we actually need to add more jobs now given that the lab Market is growing by more than 200,000 people a month or else we will continue to see unemployment tick upwards and that is not good for job Seekers and workers I think it's a reason we've seen the job Seeker confidence Index this month fall to the lowest level uh since we began measuring it what should people who are beginning their job searches or perhaps job hopping job switching expect of the wage front so wage growth is cooling but inflation has cooled faster and so workers are actually getting real wage increases again after a 25mon stretch in which their wages were losing value in real terms after inflation uh so the wage picture I think is quite Rosy and encouraging and it's not necessarily the case that this wage growth will be inflationary uh because productivity growth has been pretty strong so hopefully these wage gains are sustainable certainly you know as you're kind of looking across the number of companies that are listing or are actively looking for people to come and help them with their perhaps generative AI projects or maybe just to be a police officer you know with all of the recruitment that you are seeing and tracking across where are companies perhaps coming off of the hiring freeze bench and saying okay now we feel comfortable bringing people back into our headcount so there are several places where we saw overall employment levels actually fall at around 2022 but they're gra they're they're gradually Rising now one area is in Home Building uh that was an area that took a Hard Knock when the FED Rose uh raised interest rates but now it's actually at at a high a post Great Recession High we're also seeing Tech adding jobs very gradually month after month a lot of that is in AI uh but that sector had been pretty stagnant for a while also in response to high interest rates you know just lastly while we have you there's a lot lot of implications when we're getting more economic data trying to spell out a trend of the employment situation of what the FED may do off of all of this data what is your best anticipation of what we could see in the back half of this year from the Federal Reserve well I think at this next meeting the FED is going to be very seriously debating when to start cutting rates and I think there'll be a large contingent pushing for a September cut it's quite possible that we'll see a September cut and another one in December in December if inflation data keeps heading in this direction Julia poo who is the zip recruiter Chief Economist Julia great to see you and thanks again for joining us thanks Brad |
lE87uArZFA0 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lE87uArZFA0 | 2024-07-05 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | 2024 elections: Biden's party woes, UK's Labour priorities | [Music] President Biden facing ongoing pressure from within his own party and Beyond to bow out of November's election after last Thursday's debate performance with many calling into question his mental Fitness for another four years in office for more on the president's future let's bring in Terry Haynes Pangia policy founder here Terry what are your anticipations going into this weekend knowing that there's a big interview that President Biden is going to be doing where the Americans will have another opportunity to assess the Acuity well thanks for having me I I I said right after the debate last week that I didn't think the president would would get out uh for a very simple reason you don't try to become president for 50 years and then Chuck it after one uh one debate performance uh but now he's in a situation where you know he doesn't have three strikes in you're out uh he's already had one strike he gets one more so every day between now and the election he's either going to have to convince people regular voters that as well as the party Grandes and fundraisers and the like the regular voters that he's up to the task and he's able to actually carry this thing off and Win It U otherwise he's going to be gone pretty quickly what do you make of the number of big money donors that are shifting how they're prioritizing they're giving to the Democratic party and specifically to the the Biden campaign with this question mark kind of looming large over this weekend look in in politics as as and in many other professions uh you know the the motivations have a whole lot are a whole lot more selfish than uh than you'd think and I think uh that's what's going on with a lot of these donors who have already have already put up a substantial amount of money have pledged a little bit more and are in a situation where you know they're threatening as you say to to uh repurpose or whatever but uh fundraisers always think they have an outside outsized impact uh on the political machinations on the inside and they they're not able I don't think to uh to affect the result much uh they can provide a little extra push if it comes to that uh but they're not in control Terry you're currently in London what's your reaction to yesterday's UK election results with labor taking over in the next government and what would happen if Trump were to win the president's or if Biden or another Democrat were to win well you know the uh the election is an interesting one of a landslide with no mandate uh Jane Foley was talking about this a little bit but I'll give you kind of a slightly different look for it uh labor won about 2third of the seats in the Commons yet had a a 35% vote share uh the uh and first pass the post really means I mean for American audiences really means nothing different than what we have but what you had in uh in the Commons elections were were three or four or sometimes even five political parties going at it for for each individual seat so you get a sense a situation where labor vote labor seat totals are pushed up because the opposition votes split between the conservatives and reform let's say similarly conservatives lost an outside number of seats frankly because of Reform and you've got two political parties uh the lib Dems with their best ever showing and you've got this new Reform Party with four seats even though they got 15% of the vote uh but what you see here is not a mandate for labor or Labor's policies but frankly a uh situation where there's disgust and dissatisfaction with conventional Politics as it's been practiced in in in the UK now finally what starmer is going to have to do is proceed cautiously and frankly you know bring the country along with him uh so you know you're not going to see labor jump in here and all of a sudden start wildly taxing people uh you know the way a prior government might have done because that's just not going to wash with people they've worked very hard to get credibility back and they can't squander it immediately Terry Haynes Pangia policy founder Terry good to see you here and thanks so much for taking the time it's got to be at least afternoon some sometime over in the UK thanks so much |
EMymM8YE89o | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMymM8YE89o | 2024-07-05 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Pound jumps on UK Labour win. The hurdles the party now faces | Jane I wanted to get your take on the labor party win in the UK and the movement that we've seen with the British pound against the dollar the EUR against the dollar as well what's your take well you know if we look at uh at cable well yeah you know that has done pretty well in fact Sterling right now is the best performing currency over the last 24 hours or so the dollar of course is weakened um by itself over the last few sessions as the mark Market looks ahead to the possibility of a September interest rate cup but Sterling has done well I mean the gains that we saw today weren't great they were fairly moderate but actually Sterling is now the best performing G10 currency in the year to date and that doesn't mean it's a strong currency but it does mean that it is improving really from a very low base that we had back in September 2022 when we had you know truss onomics and and the guilt Market uh really worried about what that prime minister uh may do now she Liz truss today lost her seat and we have of course an awful lot of headlines uh telling us that we had we've now got a a landslide Victory uh for the labor party now that of course is true but if you dig a little bit deeper into the data perhaps you see something not quite so encouraging for the labor party now in the UK we have a first pass the post system but labor managed to pick up this majority of seats by only getting a very small increase in the National share sh of votes because what it appears has happened is that voters that previously had voted for the Tory party haven't necessarily all migrated to labor but they've gone to smaller parties instead meaning that labor hasn't really picked up an awful lot more votes this time around and that suggests it's going to have to deliver on growth and productivity and and and people's incomes if it really is going to win the election next time around and the Euro edging higher with the next round of voting in the French election taking place this weekend as well what what are you anticipating there well you know I think that's a lot more interesting perhaps than the UK election now the market has been encouraged Euro certainly moving up as as polls come out that the far right the pens farri right party is unlikely to win a majority now from the Market's point of view hung Parliament is is better than a majority for the far right but you know it's very difficult to celebrate a a hung Parliament because if we think about France's budget position position it's not great the the budget deficit in France is is 5.5% of GDP uh Brussels has wrapped um France on the knuckles along with Italy and and six other EU countries uh earlier well just about two or three weeks ago for not doing enough really to to ctail their budget deficit and when you have a hung Parliament yeah you may not have at the far right in in enacting some of their policies but it's going to be tough uh to try and get that budget deficit in a lot of the far-right policies uh things like wanting to reduce the retirement age could be expensive a lot of the policies of the of the leftwing alliance which is second after the far right in this election are also uh potentially going to cost uh France more money so it could be quite difficult to get that budget deficit in and that probably means as we go into the second you know half of this year we could be increasing worri about some of the budgetary positions of of countries such as France and maybe Italy too Jane Foley thank you so much for taking the time here with us today head of FX strategy over at Robo Bank Jane Foley thanks |
T1-BcNKUnEY | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1-BcNKUnEY | 2024-07-08 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Stock market today: Stocks wobble as S&P 500, Nasdaq try to build on records | >> It's 9 a.m. here in New York City. I'm Seana Smith, alongside Brad Smith. And this is Yahoo Finance's flagship show the morning Brief. That's right. >> Good morning everyone. Stocks are trading near record highs as we head into a pivotal week. Investors will get the latest reading on inflation Thursday with the June CPI print. And we're looking to the back half of the week for the start of another earnings season. So let's get to it with the three things that you need to know this Monday morning. Yahoo Finance's Jared Blikre Madison Mills and Rick Newman have more. That's right. >> Stocks are trading near all time highs as we head into a busy week. Big tech and optimism over improving inflation have pushed the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq higher of late. Investors will see if there's more room to run following another read on inflation. Consumer price index print out Thursday, followed by wholesale prices on Friday. These numbers are going to give investors a clearer picture around the timing of a rate cut, with about three weeks to go until the Fed's next policy decision, the vast majority of traders believe we'll see that first 25 basis point cut in September. We're also going to be watching semiannual testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell to Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, and Boeing has agreed to plead guilty to a criminal fraud charge surrounding two fatal. >> 737 Max crashes from back in 2018 and 2019. This comes after U.S. prosecutors said the plane maker failed to comply with the 2021 settlement agreement over those crashes, which left 346 killed. Boeing will pay over $243 million in fines and invest over $450 million in compliance and safety programs. As part of that charge. Boeing shares are off nearly 30% so far. Year to date. >> And finally, President Biden faces a tough week in Washington amid growing calls for him to step out of the presidential race. >> Weeks before the nominating convention. The latest doubts about his candidacy reportedly coming out of a call with high ranking Democratic leaders over the weekend. This comes more than a week after Biden's weak performance in the first presidential debate. Biden downplayed concerns about his age and health in a sit down interview with ABC on Friday night, saying he was exhausted the night of the debate. He reiterated he is not dropping out of the race this week. All eyes will be on Biden's performance as he hosts a three day NATO summit in Washington, D.C. >> Wall Street is gearing up for a busy week. Stock futures relatively flat after stocks closed near record highs last week, the first week of July and of the second half and of the third quarter. And inflation is now top of mind with job growth starting to slow, investors looking to Fed Chair Powell and the release of June's CPI. That consumer price index that's due out Thursday to see whether the Federal Reserve could potentially cut interest rates in September here. Of course, that is the probability the earliest probability that we're seeing that's leaning towards the side of a potential cut. And then you look out to later on this year and what that could look like for December, that still stays in the mind of investors as of right now, though, we certainly have. >> So now we have the economic calendar up. If we could flip over to the earnings calendar, because that is really what is also front and center for investors. This week as they digest the latest numbers on inflation. Exactly what that means for the fed of course, the eyes are also going to be on earnings results. The health of corporate America. Just what we are seeing there. And it really kicks off on Thursday with Delta, PepsiCo and then Friday when we start to hear from some of those larger banks. And Brad, I have a chart up. If we can throw it up here, just about the earnings growth and some of those expectations going into this quarter. And then beyond it. And you can see that spike of 8.8% here in the second quarter. But then look out into the fourth quarter of the year and into 2025. You have this, viewpoint that has really been driving the markets. Now that we have this higher bar that these corporations are going to have to clear. And if last quarter was any, I guess, signal of what we could see in terms of those reactions, the companies that did beat the Street's expectations, their only outperform the S&P the following trading day by an average of three basis points, which is well below the historical average there. So you talk about a high bar there for corporations and exactly what they need to meet and exceed this earnings season. You got a question. How big of a driver or how big of a lift to the upside? Maybe we will see the broader market on the heels of these earnings results. Yeah. >> The top three companies by market cap reporting this week representing over $1 trillion of companies that are set to report JP Morgan, PepsiCo and Wells Fargo, those top three. Of course you got a host of names. Even as we were taking a look at the calendar and some of those logos, household names like Delta, like Citigroup, Bank of New York Mellon, BNY, of course. And then additionally, you've got ConAgra Brands, but two interesting stats from the folks over at FactSet. The really came to mind and jumped out to me in this most recent report for the earnings growth front for Q2 2024, the estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 508.8. Now, if that's the growth rate for the quarter, guess what? It's going to mark the highest year over year earnings growth rate reported by the index since Q1 of 2022. And you asked the question of how expensive things are right now on a story of valuation. The forward 12 month p e ratio for the S&P 521.2. Why is that significant? It's above the five year average and above the ten year average. And so ultimately that's something that we're going to be tracking as we go throughout this earnings season as well. Another big story that we're watching Boeing has agreed to plead guilty to a criminal fraud charge surrounding two fatal 737 Max crashes from 2018 and 2019. The case was brought back into the spotlight after U.S. prosecutors said the plane maker failed to comply with the 2021 settlement agreement over those crashes, which left 346 killed and here, as we're continuing to track the move pre-market, as of right now, it's up by about 1.2% right now. Ian as we take a look at that early reaction here with shares up just about 1, we certainly can. >> I guess, try to figure out exactly what this means for Boeing here going forward. You talk about the fact that this was largely expected going off of the reports that we were getting last week, but now the question is exactly maybe what this means for some of those defense contracts going forward and whether or not that puts some of those contracts in jeopardy. And then also just some of the risks that this brings up here for Boeing, when we when we focus about the fact that, hey, maybe this is obviously it's a hit to their reputation, but how big of a hit what this means for investors. What they need to do to win back some of the confidence clearly is a big question mark at this point. >> Absolutely. For more on this, let's bring in George Ferguson, Bloomberg Intelligence senior analyst, to discuss this just a little bit more. George, as you see this plea, this guilty plea come through from Boeing. What more largely does this signal for the company and the way ahead. >> Yeah. So I think it's a it's a good sign from the aspect that they're starting to clear some of these problems. Some of thes, these legal overhangs. And that's going to help them focus on the most important thing to do with the company, which is to build more airplanes, generate more cash flow and generate profits. Right. We're really looking for a strong rebound for the company in the back half of the year. They burn $4 billion in cash. You know in one Q the company told us they expected a similar level of burn in two. Q we saw less airplanes delivered than we expected, so it could be even higher, they had they had hit sort of a sub $10 billion cash on the balance sheet level at the end of one Q came back to the capital markets to raise $10 billion in bonds. Again, I think they burn another $4 billion in cash. They could have about $13 billion of cash as they close the second quarter down I think that's a that's a low level of cash for the company. So again we're really they can't keep burning cash like this. They've really got to start to focus on building airplanes. And so this you know this agreement with the Justice Department as well as the purchase of spirit AeroSystems so they can improve quality throughout all their factories, is really part of the turnaround for the company. The next really big hurdle is they have negotiations with their most important union, I think they're already ongoing contract expires in September. That union wants a 40% increase and a guarantee of building the next airplane up in the Pacific Northwest. That's going to be the next big hurdle. But Boeing's got to start to put these behind it so it can build airplanes and generate cash. >> So do you think that this is a big blow to Boeing's reputation? You talk about some of those upcoming events that we need to focus on here, as Boeing does. Look to move forward. But how how tough is that going to be, at least in the short term? >> Yes. I mean, I kind of feel like the reputation's been pretty, pretty, you know, sullied here. I think it's frankly probably better to get this done now. You know, we all know they've had problems. We all saw the door plug come, you know, saw the video of the door plug come out. And the Alaska Airlines, I think if they could put this stuff to bed now, it puts them in better shape. Like I said, back half of this year and into next year. Not talking about it, but I think we all understand there were problems. And so I think the reputational damage from this is slight compared to all the other issues they've been having. >> George, what's interesting in our own Alexis Keenan pointed this out within her reporting up on Yahoo Finance. Now, as she was speaking with a former federal prosecutor. There's revenue and profit implications here, too, because of if they are indeed, you know, found guilty as they've entered this, entered this guilty plea. Ultimately, this impacts their ability to do government contract work as well. So what are the potential ramifications that could spill over even to the valuation for Boeing? >> Yeah. So my understanding was as long as the company wasn't considered a felon, I think you know, looking I'm not a legal expert. Somehow I think there could be a felony charge and conviction against the company. They would have they could potentially have problems, and not be allowed to take, you know, government contracts. Now, I think, you know, the way we look at this, there are products, Boeing supplies to the US military that I just don't see any near-term, substitute for. One of them would be KC 46 tanker. It's a program that's been in the news. They've taken a lot of charges on the program Airbus bid for and actually won it initially. But then after an appeal, Boeing took that contract over. It would be really hard, I think, to move that contract at this stage back to somebody like Airbus and the tanker fleet for the US military is 50 years old. It needs to be replaced. So I think there's a lot of need. We're watching backlogs in the defense industry build. So I think the government wants to find a way to make sure Boeing can be a government contractor, an important defense prime, despite whatever they're pleading guilty to here. So I think they'll find a way through this. >> And George, when you take a look at this, Boeing is now going on the oversight of a monitor. It's going to help. It will have to spend more on safety and compliance. Maybe when building aircrafts moving forward. I'm curious just the cost of this. When we talk about the fact that clearly the cash burn rate had already spooked investors. Looking forward to this. Maybe this is going to add even more cost, especially obviously when you factor in the fine. How big of a headwind is that going to be? >> Yeah, I mean, so I don't have a good number on that because I don't know what this monitor costs. What I would say is I don't think it's going to be a lot. I think I think what's going to be more important again is it's going to be this union contract that's coming up that I think could add, a half a percent to a percent to some of the cost of manufacturing. I think that we could all probably agree. It's not like Boeing couldn't use more oversight here, and it would be more costly for them to continue to have problems. And so I think look, in the long run, we kind of know near term next two, three, four years, you don't have a Boeing that has margins that look that will look like what we're in the in the pre-pandemic world. Right. They're just I think the book of business is in at a at a lower price point because Boeing lost a lot of China business and they had to go out and fill the backlog again. They did it at, you know, some good customers like Southwest and United, I think at lower prices, we know the cost will be higher with oversight. You know, like this overseer as well as they need to have internal controls that have more inspectors in place and more training. So we kind of know the company's not going to have margins that look like pre-pandemic. But look, again, I think they just need to stop burning cash. And that's the beginning of the improvement in this story. And I think they got it. That's only you can only do that through more commercial builds. And they got to start getting that done as they get here to the second half of the year. >> George Ferguson always great to get your insight. Thanks so much for hopping on with us this morning. >> Thank you. >> Well, Senate and House Democrats returning to Washington today for the first time since President Biden's poor debate performance. After top House Democrats privately met on Sunday to talk about how they can convince President Biden to drop out of the race. This is according to reports in an exclusive interview with ABC news anchor George Stephanopoulos, President Biden doubled down about staying on the ballot. >> I'm running again because I think I understand best what has to be done to take this nation to a completely new, new level. We're on our way. >> To discuss the road ahead to the white House and what it means for the market. We want to bring in Ed Mills. He's Raymond James managing director, and it's good to see you. So, President Biden went on, had this interview with ABC's George Stephanopoulos, and he did it to convince or try to help convince voters that he is suited, that he is the best person for Democrats to run on the ballot here in November. Was it enough? Did it change voters minds? Do you think this is really tricky because he did better in that ABC interview than he did at the debate, but certainly didn't do enough where it was going to quiet critics. >> I think that it was a massive shift in sentiment, especially among congressional Democrats. In the June debate against former President Trump. And what I've been telling clients is that people with power like to keep power. And we're on a collision course, because Biden clearly looks as if he wants to stay in this race, and he has the delegates. If he stays in to capture that nomination. On the flip side, congressional Democrats are looking at this race and are concerned that Biden is going to lose and are even more concerned that it could cost them the majority in the House of Representatives, which Democrats were looking to be on a decent track to capture. And certainly really has to downgrade the chance that Democrats are able to hold on to the majority in the Senate. So that conflict here, I think, is going to play out very publicly this week. We probably have to have a decision mid-month because there's an October I'm sorry, a August 7th deadline for the ballot in Ohio that Democrats need to make, and that that's really, to me, where we're looking at when a full final solution will be, you know, developed. >> And as we're sitting here looking through the president's kind of rebuttal to fellow Democrats that have pushed back and congressional Democrats that have pushed back on him continuing to run, I'm looking at this letter where he's talking about even this morning, this process that was open to anyone who wanted to run. He feels a deep obligation to the faith, to trust of the voters of the Democratic Party, placing in him to run this year. But with the clear erosion that has started to show up of that confidence in President Biden, how does this party now figure out, okay, where it remains and regains strength, especially with the business community trying to make sure that it has its big donors that will still put money towards a campaign that has started to shift in this interim period. >> Brad, you're right. And I do think that, one of the things that I tell clients at Raymond James is that things are impossible right up until the moment it's inevitable. And those things will happen pretty quickly. So in the interview with ABC news, Biden was very clear that he has not heard from the leadership of the Democratic Party that he needs to step aside. He highlighted his conversations with Hakeem Jeffries, with Chuck Schumer, with governors. But if that were to start to shift and you did see a freezing of money, that could change the calculus here, there is a difference. Now, as it relates to financing your campaign where there's so many small dollar donations, and as long as he's keeping that, he probably can stay in the race, as it relates to the market, what we've been getting questions about is how much of a Trump victory is getting priced in. Was that part of the steepening of the yield curve that we saw last week? When we look at the agenda of tariffs of, potential extension of the tax cuts, are there inflationary concerns that could impact the monetary policy decisions of the federal Reserve, all of these are major questions that are hinging on the question of, is Biden going to stay in the race? And if he does, can he win the presidency? >> Well, let's talk a little bit more about how this all plays out in the markets. I guess two questions here. One, is there between, former President Trump and President Biden, is there consensus on who is better for the markets and why? And then my second question will be, as we talk about the fact that even though maybe it's not too likely, but this potential for President Biden to be replaced on the ballot of the names that are being floated, is there one that's better for the market than the others? >> So I'd start with the first question you had. I think that there are a knee jerk reaction that a Trump victory, could be a boost to the market, especially in areas that are heavily regulated. That have seen slowdowns of M&A. Or could benefit from the continuation of the tax cuts. So financials kind of front and foremost on that list, I think you would see a bid, in bank stocks, in a Trump victory. But the thing I do remind folks at Raymond James is that when we go back to the first term of President Trump, there were multiple times where the S&P 500 were down more than 20% over the China trade fight, and he's vowed to restart that. So I think there's more volatility, even though there could be that knee jerk positive reaction in a Trump victory. I was marketing meeting with clients in Europe, two weeks ago. And they I think, generally felt as if there was a continuation of the Biden presidency. A lot of the clean energy and infrastructure projects could get a continued boost in the allocation to the United States because of a known outcome of what was going to happen in DC, would keep greater confidence. So it's a much more nuanced answer versus like one good versus one bad. >> And then on the second part of Shauna's question there as well, if Biden was to be replaced, is there of the list of candidates someone who the markets would look as best outcome? >> So, it's hard because I think that the most likely candidate, in our opinion, would be, Kamala Harris, the vice president, taking and foremost, she's been the vice president. That's the role of the vice president. If the president is not able to serve, she also would be able to inherit the campaign infrastructure and funding. So she's put at the top of the list, when we've debated at Raymond James, some of the differences in policy between a Kamala Harris and a Joe Biden, there's not a huge gap because, Vice President Harris, when she was in the Senate, you know, she certainly was kind of a leader on on issues, but there's not a whole list of policy differences that you would have if there were to be at the top of the list, a Bernie Sanders or an Elizabeth Warren or someone from the much more progressive wing of the party. So if it is Harris, I don't really think that there's a big change. I think she is more liberal on things, but her ability to get things done, because she doesn't have the same dealmaking experience that Joe Biden has because he's been in DC for, 50 years. The question is maybe a little bit more liberal, but maybe fewer things get accomplished. So from a market perspective, I don't think there's a huge change. The only change that could be kind of priced in is she might have some more downside to Biden as it relates to the election, but she also has a lot more potential upside. And so if we were talking about a Democratic sweep, we'd be looking at increases in tax rates, changes to the number of prescription drugs. We negotiate on, maybe a more enforced, M&A environment. So that's where we could see patches of weakness in this market. >> Brad Mills, Raymond James Managing Director Editor Great to see you, and thanks as always for joining us. >> Thank you guys. >> Certainly French stocks rebounding after the countries left wing party winning the most seats in the election second round, but leaving no party with an absolute majority. Leaving France with a hung parliament to discuss. Let's bring in Yahoo Finance's Akiko Fujita. Akiko, you've been all across this French election year. What do we know. >> Yeah it's been a busy election cycle. You could say. Well that reality of a hung parliament, you just highlighted is exactly why we're seeing a fairly muted reaction to these election results, at least in the markets. The Cac40 index just slightly higher after initially falling in, opening trade. This was a huge reversal from the first round of the elections. Remember, it was just one week ago when a strong showing from far right party National Rally raised the potential of the party taking a majority in the National Assembly on Sunday. It was a different story after the centrist and leftist parties coalesced around select candidates, with voter turnout at its highest rate in more than 40 years. You see the numbers on the screen there. The leftist coalition New Popular Front taking 180 seats, the Ensemble Alliance, the centrist Party 159, and then the National Rally, ending up with 143, at least according to results posted by the Financial Times. With no party capturing a majority, the hard work now begins with the potential for government gridlock in France just weeks before the country is set to host the Summer Olympic Games in Paris, the first order of business will be settling on a new prime minister, President Emmanuel Macron has asked current Prime Minister Gabriel Attal to stay on to ensure stability. For now. But we should highlight there are critical divisions between these coalitions on policy, particularly when it comes to the country's finances and growing debt. Leaders under pressure to cut its deficit, now forecast to grow to 5.1% of GDP. But the leftist new Popular Front is called for spending increases. Talking about increased benefits, higher public sector wages, more housing benefits, all of that is likely to total roughly $380 billion over the next three years. The coalition's also proposed rolling back one of Macron's signature policies, raising the country's legal age of retirement. Now, as for Le Pen's party, the National Rally's momentum may have collapsed in domestic elections, but it's still looking to gain influence in European Parliament by joining forces with a far right political faction led by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. His spokesperson posting this message on X saying this new right wing faction could become the third largest in the European Parliament. >> All right, very important update there. Akiko Fujita, thanks so much for breaking everything surrounding the croissant trade down for us here this morning. I appreciate it. We're just getting started here on Morning Brief. Coming up a done deal. Paramount has accepted Skydance Media's $8 billion takeover bid. We've got some of the top trending tickers next plus Hurricane Beryl makes landfall along the Texas coast. We'll break down the category one storm's impact on oil prices. And then later on, big banks setting the stage. Financials set to kick off the start of Q2 earnings reports this week. What this means for the markets later on in the show, you're watching Yahoo Finance Morning Brief. Yahoo! Finance as well is your guide. Your group of advisers. Planners and jargon busters to help you save, build and grow your money. How do I know if I'm saving enough for retirement? How do I know if it's right for me to go on that lavish vacation? Is it finally time to refinance my mortgage? How do I pay less in taxes? We'll get you the answers you need. Well, earning it, growing it, and managing it. It's more than tracking just the latest market moves. It's more than your favorite trending tickers. One does not simply build wealth without considering the entire financial landscape. It takes a community, and we've built one for you. Wealth cuts through the noise to help guide your financial decisions so that your money works for you. Well, on Yahoo Finance premieres March 25th. It's time for some trending tickers this morning, shares of Paramount moving higher after Paramount Global reportedly agreed to merge with Skydance Media, marking a new chapter for one of Hollywood's oldest studios. Now, who finance senior reporter Alexandra Canal has the details. I mean, Alexandra, when were where were you when the entire deal and the talks even started? My goodness, it's been years. >> I know you really couldn't script this better if it was a movie. Brad, after months of back and forth talks, sweetened offers a deal that was approved then not approved by Executive Chairwoman Shari Redstone. We have finally reached the end of this media merger saga. Skydance receiving approval from Paramount special committee on Sunday before Redstone gave her own stamp of approval after she initially rejected a deal on June 11th. But less than a month later, the two sides have made it official. Now this will be a two step transaction, so first, Skydance will pay 2.4 billion to acquire National Amusements. That's the holding company that controls Paramount through its class A voting shares. Skydance will then fully merge with Paramount with those class A stockholders receiving 23 bucks a share, while class B stockholders will secure $15 a share. Now, this value Skydance, at about 4.75 billion. In terms of the leadership team, Skydance CEO David Ellison will become chairman and CEO, while former NBC universal executive Jeff Shell will serve as president. In a press release, Skydance said it will, quote, reposition Paramount to improve profitability, foster stability and independence for creators, and enable more investment in faster growing digital platforms. And like we said, I mean, this does represent a new chapter for Paramount, which also owns iconic brands like Nickelodeon, Bet, MTV, Comedy Central, among others. There is a 45 day go shop period where other potential bidders could submit offers, but it does seem like Redstone is fully committed to go ahead with this new and improved Skydance transaction. It is still subject to regulatory approval, but it is expected to close in the first half of 2025. Shares are up slightly in pre-market trading, but did surge as much as 8% last week when rumors first started to swirl that the deal was back on. So a new chapter here for Paramount Global. This is the first time since the 1980s that they were under a new ownership here. So a pivotal time for this company. >> All right, Ali, thanks so much for breaking that down again. Paramount, a name to keep on our radars here today. Well, we've got the opening bell on Wall Street as we kick off a new trading week. Again, the major averages not huge movement that we're seeing here right at the open. But coming off another record setting week here for the markets. >> Yeah, we were taking a look at the two bell ringers there. You had Smurfit over at the NYSE. And then it looked like you had some athletes over at the Nasdaq team USA repping C. One of my former colleagues, former boss Bob Mccooey up there on the podium as well here with some fun fetti. We're just days, weeks away now from the Summer Olympics that we're all going to be watching. Well, anyway, there you're taking a look at the opening bell. We open up higher across the board here. >> All right, let's kick it over to Jared. Blikre is a closer look at some of this movement that we're seeing right at the open Jared. >> Yes a little bit of a rally here. So we got the Dow up about 108 points. That's only worth about a quarter of a percent. So kind of a sleepy open here is to be expected. We've got the Nasdaq on I think it's up six weeks in a row. Don't quote me on that. But definitely a nice string. And we talk about this time of year the first time, the first ten days of July are actually the most bullish period of the year. So a great time to be long. And let's take a look here. Let's see. We got the VIX that has been heading lower. We also have the dollar heading lower. We also have the ten year Treasury note yield heading lower. And all of that is bullish here. Let me just show you the VIX really quick. This is a year to date chart. You can see it's inflected just the tiniest little bit right there at the hard right edge of the chart. But definitely near the lows of the year. You can draw that line all the way back. Here's the ten year note yield that's heading down as well but approaching pretty big support. 4.2 to 4.25 is the area to watch. Not quite there just yet. And we are watching tech as the early leader today, but it is now in fourth place. Xlk right there, kind of in the middle of your screen on the top row. Then we have industrials that is a leader now followed by financials. And then materials real estate I should add also outperforming energy communication services communication. Excuse me. Consumer discretionary. All three of those are heading down right now. But again not any big movements. And then I want to track Tesla. Tesla is down about 1.6. And this is going to snap something like an A 7 or 8 day win streak for Tesla. There you can see over the last ten days it is up 35% and is off to the races here. As soon as it broke above $200 per share. But now now it is reaching a potential resistance point. So we'll see if Tesla pauses. >> We will. All right Jared, thanks so much for breaking that down. We want to draw our attention to Eli Lilly and also shares of morphic here this morning Eli Lilly is right around the flatline after agreeing to buy biopharmaceutical. Biopharmaceutical company morphic a $3.2 billion deal. You're really seeing the action play out in shares of morphic. They're up just around 75% right now at the open. Anjali Khemlani is here with the breakdown as to why this makes sense for Eli Lilly. >> And that's right Seana. >> We know that Eli Lilly of course flush with cash after the booming success of its GLP one drugs. That's Manjaro and Zep bound. And it is putting that cash to use. The CEO is already indicated interest in early stage deals and this just fits the bill for that morphic with its ulcerative colitis treatment in phase two. That matches sort of what Eli Lilly already has. We know we just think of it as a GLP one company, but it does have more under its belt and in its pipeline. And this does match that pipeline for Eli Lilly. We know that they've already gotten one drug in the same category approved last yea. And they're looking at this to sort of boost other areas as well, including cancer. So there are sort of fits reasons why this deal fits Lilly's portfolio. We do know that morphic, of course, with being a smaller biotech. Of course, those that stock is up quite significantly. You're not seeing this push. Lilly's quite as much. But it could help in the longer term. We know the market cap currently sits at about $870 billion. So could it inch up to that 900 I know everyone's watching that part of the stock. But this deal as is going through Lilly said it should close by the third quarter of this year. >> All right Andy, thanks so much for breaking that down again. We're just four minutes into the trading day. Let's take a look at where things stand right now. You got all three major averages opening the trading week in the green. You've got the Dow up just over 200 points. That's a good for a half of a percent gain. You've got the S&P up another 2/10 of a percent. The Nasdaq also moving to the upside here. So we'll see whether or not those gains continue throughout the trading day. Keep right here on Yahoo Finance. Much more on the morning brief. When we come back. >> We're tracking the major averages here. This morning. They're off to a good start. As we begin this new trading week ahead of key inflation data out this week, which might fuel or could even constrain the rally, depending upon which way the reading comes in to discuss further. Keith Lerner Truist Co-Chief Investment Officer and Chief Market Strategist here with us. I mean, Keith, I want to be optimistic. I want to feel like the data is going to come in and favorable of some of these potential cuts that we've been talking about. Sure, maybe not July, but September. It'd be nice to see that more firmed up a little bit. I don't know what what are you keeping close tabs on here that could sway the fed one way or the other? >> Yeah, well, first, great to be with you, Brad and Sean. I hope you all had a great 4th of July extended weekend. So thinking ahead, where we're thinking about the overall picture right now is the fed is likely to cut rates in September. We see an economy that is cooling. We wouldn't call it weak, but it is cooling. And we're seeing those inflationary trends also cool somewhat. So we think it's going to be, you know, time for the fed to start moving. And we expect, you know, 1 to 2, fed cuts this year. And that actually continues. What we're starting to see is a slow but global easing cycle. You put that together with profits that are still moving forward. We still think that's a positive environment for stocks. But again, probably not at the same pace that we saw in the first half. >> So Keith, what do you think the gains then would potentially the movement then is still to the upside. It seems like that trend is intact. What do you think that maybe the gains more realistically look like from here. >> Yeah I mean I think realistically, you know, somewhere in the 5 to 10% range, you know, we could still see that if we look at it instead of what I think the historical data as a starting point, we've seen 27 times historically where the market has had a 10% plus first half. If you look at the second half, you tend to add to gains or you've seen gains added 24 of those 27 times. So 89. So that's a pretty good hit rate. The average gain has been about 9. But here's one important stat too. In that back half the average peak to trough decline. Meaning at some point you have a hiccup is also around 9. So we think the trend is higher, but we do think we'll see 1 or 2 pullbacks along the way. And again, the main the main support should be fundamentally earnings moving forward. >> Keith where does tech fit into all this. Because you have been bullish on tech for many months at this point. Recently though downgrading it to more of a neutral holding. I'm curious then what that tells us about maybe the concentration. Are we going to see broader participation and how investors should be viewing tech at this point? >> Yeah, it's a good point. We've we were overweight tech since last November. And then in late June we actually downgraded it to a market rate. So again not a bet against tech but saying hey we just had one of it's we're up over 30% this year, over 40% since we upgraded it in November. We saw in last month the relative performance, in late June became the most on a one month basis in about 20 years. So our main message to our clients was like, listen, we still like tech. We don't think this is a bubble longer term, but on a short term basis, we're getting a little bit overheated, a bit stressed, and we just think there will be a better opportunity to redeploy capital there in a more meaningful way. But what that means for the overall market, if the tech is such a big part of the overall market, we think as we get maybe towards the back half of July, maybe some more chop and some digestion, maybe some rotation within the market. What's interesting Seana is you're also seeing rotation within the Mag seven. You know itself. But I do think we'll see some some of that rotation and maybe more of a choppier market as we head into late July into August which sector is the biggest beneficiary of rotation at this juncture Keith. Yeah it's a tough call because in our sector work right now we only have two sector Overweights which is still communication services, which is still tech oriented. And then we have something, you know, utilities, which is more defensive, maybe a little bit of an AI play, but also which should be supported by by lower yields. I think it's more like what's going to happen is you're going to see maybe not things standing out, but maybe a little bit of money going into financials, industrials, energy. It's just kind of a little bit of a of a rotation into other areas. And then I think later in the year I think money will come back to tech and we'll be we'll be looking at potentially upgrading it, but we're going to be patient for that opportunity to present itself. >> Keith Lerner Truist Co-Chief Investment Officer and Chief, Market Strategist Keith, thanks so much again for joining us here. >> Great to be with you all. >> Your markets action ahead. Stay tuned. You're watching Morning Brief. Everyone. Hurricane. Beryl making landfall in Texas. Bringing with it strong winds, power outages, and thousands of flight cancellations. The ports of Corpus Christi, Houston, Galveston, Freeport, and Texas City closed yesterday in preparation, putting some offshore oil and gas production at risk. Oil prices sliding this morning after rising for four weeks. Let's bring in Rob Thummel, who's the tortoise portfolio manager here with us. Rob, as we were taking a look at WTI there. And thanks so much for joining us. By the way, as we're tracking the developments surrounding Beryl, what is the larger, more outsized impact that you're watching for right now, especially as it relates to commodities and oil. >> Yeah. So for oil prices and commodities. So one of the things that the US has become is the largest exporter of energy in the world. And so unfortunately we're barrel is coming is really going through is one of the key ports. And you mentioned all the ports that are closed. So, hopefully the destruction is limited just for the people and the human element of it for the business element of it. There's a lot of infrastructure. That's that's right around the Corpus Christi area, and that will that infrastructure will be temporarily closed. I don't know if there's ever good news in a hurricane, but but the infrastructure has been built, I think, to withstand, these hurricanes because they have been more common, but what we'll see. Less infrastructure or, sorry, less exports of oil, diesel, natural gas, potentially gasoline. And so, actually for the US consumer, that's probably going to be a good thing because you're going to see a lot more supply of these products still, but not as much demand from the export side. So prices actually probably will come down temporarily here as an impact or as the impact primary impact of burrow itself. >> Rob, how much pressure do you think we could see on prices? >> Yeah. >> No, that's a good question, you know, let's talk about oil prices in particular. You know, oil is around 82. There's probably a geopolitical risk premium of a couple dollars in oil, right now, it wouldn't surprise me if you saw if you see oil prices come back to $80 a barrel. So, so not tremendous amount, but but a little bit. >> And with that in mind, you mentioned something really key is that more of the infrastructure is actually being built up to withstand weather events like this for the industry. And the operators. How much more investment capital expenditures do you expect them to put forward towards safeguarding against future events, hurricanes and other severe weather events as well? >> Yeah, that's a very good observation, what I would say is, you know, the energy sector in general, one of the things investors like about the sector is the capital discipline, which has led to significant amount of earnings that have been converted to cash, and then that cash is then then being paid back to investors in the form of higher dividends and stock buybacks, I don't expect that. We'll see a significant amount of new capital expenditures, really, at this point in time, this capital discipline will remain in place. Now, some of the a lot of these assets are have been built in the last several years, or in the last decade. So a lot of the capital has already been spent, to, to really harden these assets and prepare them for, events like what's going on. Right now and obviously future hurricanes that will happen in the future, so, so I don't think, I don't think there'll be a tremendous amount of new capital expenditures focused on you know, hurricane preparedness or anything like that outside of what we're seeing, weather wise and Hurricane Beryl here in the U.S. of course, when we talk about the price of crude and the price of Brant, a lot of that being factored by the possibility of rising geopolitical tensions. >> I'm curious how you're factoring that into your not only your short term projections, but really also what we could see for that price action. Looking looking ahead towards the end of the year. >> Yeah. So we like to focus on the companies that don't have as much of a commodity price exposure from, from an energy perspective. But but but specific to your question, how we are looking for commodity prices going forward. We think the futures curves got it, got it right. I think on oil and even potentially natural gas. So the big picture, you know, the OPEC production cuts are now have been, you know, are entirely in place through the end of September. And then they're going to OPEC plus is going to gradually bring up production through the end of the year. Just just gradually about a couple adding back a couple hundred thousand barrels per day if demand remains in place globally and meets what everybody's expecting, you're going to have an Undersupplied. Crude oil market. But for really for this quarter and next quarter as well, that'll bring inventories down. And that when inventories come down, that means prices go up. So we wouldn't it wouldn't be surprising for us to see oil prices, you know, range bound between 80 and $90 per barrel between now really in the end of the year. >> All right. Rob Thummel always great to get your insight here. Tortoise Portfolio Manager, thanks so much for joining us. >> Thank you. >> Coming up, France's latest parliamentary elections brings new challenges to President Macron. What it could mean for the European markets next. France's left wing coalition stunned Europe as a new Popular Front won the biggest share of the National Assembly. But the election, though, failed to produce a majority, raising the risk of a hung parliament. Now for more on what this could ultimately mean for the markets. We want to bring in, Sebastian Radler, he's Bank of America's global research head of European equity strategy. Sebastian, it's great to talk to you. So here we are today with the surprise movement here from the left. And I think many investors are trying to figure out exactly what this means or how this is going to play out in the markets, given this political uncertainty. What could that signal then for the movement we could likely see in European equities? >> Well, I think the easiest way to summarize it is that you really have French politics offering itself in a very complicated and complex mix of macro drivers as a potential driver for the market. And with the result that we got yesterday, it simply means it won't be a driver. This will be a domestic phenomenon. You'll likely get gridlock. You have to now find a coalition, potentially get a caretaker government, potentially a technocratic government. But the idea that you could get meaningful swings and risk premium because of what's happening in France is off the agenda, because the downside risk scenario of a hard right government basically going in confrontation to the EU and potentially raising the political uncertainty from there, making an impact at the pan European level that is off the table and therefore it's effectively it offered itself as a catalyst and likely now will not be. >> I mean, the elections have done a number on the Cac40 as we've been tracking that over the past several weeks here. It's been down by about 7% since about mid-May. So all these things considered, now that the dust is finally settling here and we could see some gridlock, is that net positive for what we're tracking in the back? And more broadly here within stocks that are traded internationally, or at least most French touching if you will. >> Yeah, it depends a little bit from what your starting point is relative to where you were, let's say a month ago, it's a negative because you basically have replaced a pro-business, pro-reform government that was given the lethargy that you have in German politics at the moment. There was a clear leader at the European level, and you now have basically a government that is incapacitated and has to find its feet and that will likely take weeks, if not months. And even then you might have an ineffective government compared to what you had in place before. So, so given where you are, given where you are a month ago, this is a negative development. But given what could have been, i.e. this kind of political confrontation with the hard right, so it's a relief relative to where you were a week ago, but still a deterioration over the over the past month or so. But overall, it means that it will not be a main swing factor for European equities. You've got other things in play. For instance what happens to the US Macrocycle what happens to the European macrocycle? What happens to US politics? And on a relative basis, these factors will now be far more important than this little French drama that we've lived through over the last three weeks. >> Well, Sebastian, given all that, I guess what is your base case projections then for European equities? When we talk about some of this uncertainty or maybe this downward pressure that we could see, what does that then downside risk look like. >> Yeah. So we are at the very bottom end of the consensus range. We've got around 15% downside in an environment where generally everybody is bullish and everybody is bullish because the global economy helped by the US, has been tremendously strong over the last two years. After a recession scare that we had in 2022. So if you look across markets, you've got markets at an all time high. You've got risk premium at a multi-decade low. So the global equity risk premium at 3.4% is the lowest, the lowest level since since 2002. And you've got earnings and margins at all time highs. And that is because you're very late cycle in the US. You've got basically you have had all the recovery in the labor market, all the recovery in consumer spending, and we're now seeing starting to see first cracks. So the big story in the US over the past two months is that you've seen a clear cut weakening of growth momentum. And everybody's now holding their breath. And saying is this just a normalization from the overheating that we've seen over the past 18 months, or is it the signs of a turn in the business cycle from late cycle to end of cycle. And then you would get rising unemployment, you would get rising risk premium, declining earnings. Everybody is holding their breath. And we think that's a likely development because all the typical lead indicators, i.e. monetary policy, working with a lag, the fiscal support that you had last year are starting to fade. All of this points to more macro weakness to come, and we think that will feed through. It will mean higher risk premia and lower asset prices. So we are very defensively positioned and we see downside for equities as this macro weakness comes over from the US Sebastian we only have about 45 seconds. >> But what did the results of this election hold for us tech companies who have gotten hit with more fines, as we've seen the European Union and its members be a little bit more, far more stringent about punitive damages and even compensatory damages. For us tech companies and how they operate in that region? >> Yeah, I think to be honest, given everything else that's going on in US tech, I think it will be a secondary driver. But if anything, you have a less business friendly administration very likely in place once the dust has settled. So potentially more focus on trying to extract taxes from from these tech winners that you have in the US. >> All right. Sebastian Radler of Bank of America, thanks so much for joining us here this morning. We've got much more of your market action ahead. Again you're looking at gains across the board. You've got the Dow still up just over 200 points. You've got the S&P up about 2/10 of a percent as well as the Nasdaq. We'll be right back. Just after 10 a.m. here in New York City. I'm Seana Smith alongside Madison Mills. Let's dive into the catalyst moving markets today. >> The fed is in focus this week as fed chair Jay Powell is set to give his semiannual testimony before Congress on Tuesday. And Wednesday. That's going to be followed by key inflation data out Thursday. Investors will be watching all of that for any clues about the Fed's path forward. >> And Boeing pleading guilty to criminal fraud charges in connection with two fatal crashes of its 737 Max jet. We'll discuss what comes next for the troubled plane maker and another critical week for President Biden as he prepares to host NATO members ahead of a planned press conference on Thursday. >> With Congress back in session, Democrats are reportedly discussing the status of his campaign for president. We're going to discuss what's next in the race. But first we got to talk about markets. The S&P 500 up over 16. So far this year, closing Friday at its 34th record high of the year. That run is many firms boosting their year end targets for the S&P 500. But one bank has decided to drop coverage of the index altogether. Actually dropping their coverage of their year end target. For the index behind that call, we have Michael Kantrowitz. He's Piper Sandler's co-chief investment strategist. Michael, thanks so much for being here. I want to pull up a quote from your note on this. You say talking about the S&P 500 to communicate investment insights to investors has become an exercise in futility. I was giggling when this note came out because you definitely sound a little bit peeved by the AI rally. Is that what drove this call? >> No, no, not not at all. And it's not a change to my views. You know, we've been bullish all year and I'm still constructive on on larger cap equities. It's more about you know, in the last few months, as I was trying to think about raising my target again, I didn't really feel that it comfortable being intellectually honest, saying that I can have a high conviction view of where the S&P is going to end up. Nor do I did. I think it really adds value to our clients who are institutional investors, who it's not about whether the market's going up or down, but really what you have to own and what you have to avoid. And we've seen correlations of stocks within the S&P 500 dropped to about a 25 year low, compared to the 500. So there's really there's diminishing value in talking about the market because, again, most stocks are not trading like the market. >> And Michael, given that I guess for investors out there trying to figure out what happens next, you are still constructive on US equities. You do still see opportunities. So if it's not within or you don't think maybe it's helpful for investors to have a bull versus bear call right now on the S&P 500, what should investors be looking for? What are some of the more helpful views that you think at this point that tells a better story about where that opportunity is? >> Sure. Yeah. And again, it's not I think you have to have a bullish and bearish view. And we are bullish, but you know again if I covered Apple or Microsoft and I was bullish on Apple or Microsoft and said you know you know the conclusion is clear. Go buy Apple or Microsoft. If you're bullish on the S&P 500 this year for an institutional investor that's not buying the index. Well how does that really help them? Because you look at the market this year we're up 1,617. Typically that much of a rally would would come along with massive risk on leadership. Small caps outperforming and small caps as we sit here year to date have have returned zero, and so we've been focused on where to invest. And for the last two years we've been big bulls on larger quality, profitable names that essentially have economies of scale that can sustain their businesses. The, the best amidst this higher interest rate environment. And so it's still very much a large cap growth call avoiding smaller companies with weaker fundamentals. Yeah. >> I heard you mention quality and I want to jump in on that because you say that you continue to emphasize quality at a reasonable price. Where does that exist. Because isn't part of the problem. The fact that quality valuations have really been bid up since the bottom in late 2022? >> Yeah. Well, much of the increase in valuations from late 2022 was just a recapture of the valuations that were lost during that bear market. So really that was much of 23 was just kind of a give back. On the 2022 bear market from here, we haven't seen as much of a rapid improvement in valuations this year, at the index level, again, certain stocks have seen PE expansion. So we're looking for companies that have continued to, outpace their peers in terms of earnings growth, that are the highest level of profitability. And we're looking for those two types of attributes, along with companies that have valuations that are not the most expensive. So it's you kind of have to sacrifice a little bit of growth, perhaps in quality, to find names that aren't egregiously expensive. But it's that sweet spot which we call quality or reasonable price. And we've got in the S&P 550 names that have beaten the index this year, and it's not just about all I or all tech. >> Well, Michael, given the high bar that has been set this earnings season, are you cautious on the upside just given the fact that the reaction that we could see for these reports that even do exceed Wall Street expectations. >> Yeah, I think, you know, the big question for investors has been, you know, when will breadth improve in the equity market. And I think we've already had two surges in breadth, already 1 in 20. The beginning at the end of 2022 as inflation started to come down, the second surge in breadth at the beginning or the end of last year as the fed pivoted and from here to get wildly bullish on equities, here you have to think breadth is going to continue to improve. And the likeliest catalyst that's going to come from is earnings. We don't think that's going to happen though. Instead we're actually seeing breadth for earnings. The earnings backdrop deteriorate. So if I was you know very bullish at the beginning of this year because I still thought there was a lot more upside from lower interest rates. And the fed eventually cutting. I think we've priced that in so far. So I don't think peas are going any higher from here. And it's really going to be about companies earnings. And so I think you know and that's why we're starting to see not only relative outperformance of large cap growth stocks but absolute outperformance. The equal weighted S&P 500 has been down the last 5 or 6 weeks, while large cap growth has continued to go up. So we're not wildly bullish because we're kind of moving along this evolution of a slowdown. And it's going to become, I think, even more narrow as we go forward. >> Michael, I want to end on the macro with you, because I know you expect unemployment to continue to drive higher. You call it soft locks. When does that start to become a significant problem for this economy? >> Yeah. Well that's the top question we get from clients. So what we do is we what we did last week is we threw it back at clients and said, well, at what level of the unemployment rate are you going to get nervous? Because when you can look you can look throughout history and there is no magic number where payrolls or the unemployment rate or initial claims hit and the market just all of a sudden turns over. Each cycle is a little different with this cycle, there's still a pretty big focus on inflation coming down and the fed cutting rates, and we think the unemployment rate will continue to move higher. But at the same slow pace it's been moving higher. Give or take about ten basis points a month. And so we think that level is closer to 4.5% at the low end, and the average client or the most popular answer from clients was 5. I don't know if we can see another 90 basis point increase in the unemployment rate without a broad selloff, but I don't think that's an issue right now. As we sit here today. >> All right. Michael Kantrowitz always great talking to you. Thanks so much for making the time to join us here this morning. Piper Sandler is co-chief of investment strategists. Thanks so much, Michael. Well, President Biden, responding to pressure to drop out of the presidential race with a letter to congressional Democrats this morning. This comes after a handful of Democrats have called on the president to step aside as the presumptive Democratic nominee. For more on the state of the race, we want to bring in Greg Valliere. He's AGF investments chief, U.S. policy strategist. Greg, it's great to see you. So it's been, what, about a week and a half since we last spoke. And when I last talked to you, we were discussing about whether or not the likelihood that maybe we could see the Democratic Party nominate another candidate if President Biden were to step aside. But here we stand this morning. And Elise, taking a look at that letter from President Biden to congressional Democrats. It doesn't look like he has any plans to do so. Should he, though. >> I think it's going to be a process that will last a while longer. I don't think we're at any kind of resolution yet. He's got a big press conference on Thursday. As you know, he's got the G10 meeting here in Washington for the next three days. So I think people will watch him very, very carefully without making any decision. This could drag on until the Democrats convention in Chicago in mid-August. >> Greg, would that be the final moment in this question of whether or not he is officially going to be on that ballot in November, or could we continue to see questions about it even after that? >> It could be the latter. I got to tell you, I think if Biden makes another gaffe or says something that upsets people, at some point he's going to have to go. So I'm not positive that he is going to make it. I think in the last 48 hours, maybe the pendulum has shifted a little bit toward him. But we're still a long, long way to go. And I got to tell you, the big concern among Democrats on Capitol Hill is quite clear. They think they could lose the House, the Senate, the white House, and lots of governorships. That would be a bloodbath for the Democrats. And that's a plausible scenario. If he is still on the ticket. >> Greg, give me a number here quickly. What percentage chance would you put on Biden not being on the ticket come November? >> I'm going to stick to my gun. It's one of the most difficult calls in my career. But I think the chances are better than 50 over 50 that he will not be on the ticket. That Kamala Harris at some point in the fall, will wind up on the ticket. >> Is she the best option for the Democrats at this point? >> Oh yeah, they have to take her. I think it would infuriate African American Democrats, female Democrats. So she she would be the replacement. I think a lot of people have gotten a little bit more excited by her. But again, I would reiterate this is not over yet. And Biden's not out of the woods, but it could be weeks and weeks before we get a clarity on who is the nominee. >> Well, Greg, I think the question here is, what do you think is going to get President Biden to step aside in this race? >> And is it one particular lawmaker? Is it someone that is going that comes out and says that publicly that he should step aside, that is going to make him change his mind? >> Good question. I think you know, maybe a Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi come out together and say he has to step down. That would have clout. Maybe if Biden's polls really took a slide, his polls are off a little, but they're not horrible compared to a month or so ago. Maybe he has another episode where he freezes up and doesn't appear to know what the answer is. So there are lots of things that could happen that could change this, but I'd say the polls in particular, especially the polls for the Senate and the House, because you've got a lot of really nervous senators and House members. >> Yeah. >> Well, you had President Biden sending a letter to congressional Democrats this morning saying that he does still believe he is the best candidate to beat President Trump. And the first policy he cites in that letter is his economic policy. Talking about adding jobs, his economic vision. Who do you think is better for this economy, Trump or Biden? >> Biden I think his his proposals have worked pretty well. >> I think a lot of what Trump is going to be doing would add to inflation. Trump wants a big fat tax cut. I'm not sure we need a big fat tax cut. Both of them want tariffs, which I think is a dumb idea. But I think when you look at the two of them together, I'd say that Biden has had a pretty good run. He's done fairly well on the economy, and I think that he, he would lead Trump eventually on that subjec. >> And, Greg, let's talk a little bit more about those tax cuts, because I think initially investors are looking at that saying, hey, that this could actually be a good thing here for the markets, especially when you take into account maybe what the Republicans want to do when it comes to the corporate tax rate. And there has been talk, there has been pushed within that party to lower the corporate tax tax rate all the way down to 15. Why should this bring some pause for investors when you talk about it adding adding to the to the deficit right now, higher debt. Why is that so problematic in your vie? >> I'd say two reasons. Number one, I'm not sure the economy needs a tax cut right now. We did four years ago and we got one that had been too big. But the big thing that I think the markets are going to have to start worrying about is paying for it. I mean, an extension of the Trump tax cuts that passed in 2017. If we extend them for another decade, we're talking 4 or $5 trillion. I'm not sure we have the money for another big tax cut. >> What does that mean for Wall Street? Then which of these potential candidates is better for investors, institutional investors? >> Yeah. Good question. I think as long as Jerome Powell sticks around the wall Street will be happy. Unfortunately, Powell and Trump do not get along as you know. And I think if there's real friction between the two and Powell leaves his term doesn't expire till the end of 2026. But I think friction between Powell and Trump would not be well received by the markets. >> Greg, I'm curious from your view, because we've heard and there's been lots of coverage on this over the last week and a half about donors now starting to pressure and starting to speak about President Biden stepping aside. How closely does President Biden and the administration look at this? How much weight do they actually have in what is ultimately going to happen? >> Yeah, I think that both of them have a ton of money. They're they're not going to be, scrounging around for loose change. They've got plenty of money. But I think that if one of the candidates, probably Biden, tends to see a decrease of fundraising, that's not a good sign. I think that's a sign that he is losing confidence with the financial community, with Silicon Valley, there are a lot of sources of money that could dry up, and that would not look good for Biden. >> All right. Greg Valliere, AGF investments chief, U.S. Policy Strategist. Thanks so much for making the time to join us here. Keep it right here on Yahoo Finance. We've got much more of your market action ahead. Stay tuned. You're watching catalyst. >> Shares of TSMC jumping over 3. The company hitting $1 trillion in market value after Morgan Stanley and several other brokers. Boosting price targets on this chip maker prior to their earnings report. Optimism does continue to rise over the company's AI chips heading into those second quarter results, extending its rally more than 70% so far this year. And this is clearly a bullish signal. Of course, for the Nvidia's of the world as well. TSMC is the sole supplier. Apple and Nvidia's most important chips. So that is making, you know, this bullish signal not just apply to TSMC, but also those other names. It could be an indicator of those other names. Now we had Morgan Stanley raising its price target on this stock by about 9. So that is a significant raise there. They expect the chip maker to raise full year sales estimates in their earnings announcements coming out here in the coming weeks. The broker also seen TSMC hiking their wafer prices. That is a key portion of chips due to strong bargaining power. And really the fact that TSMC is the only one at their level in this market right now, putting them in a position to have that strong pricing power similar to what we see with Nvidia. But again, TSMC, the only supplier for some of those big names, like an Apple, like an Nvidia, really positioning them well here. >> Exactly. When you take a look at this, a lot of that driven by the pricing power that you were just talking about and again, this move to the upside this morning, really adding to this massive momentum that we've seen in TSMC shares really since the start of the year and going back even earlier. But since January 1st is massive run up in the stock. You're looking at gains here over the last seven months or so of just around 80. I believe there it is on the screen, 82. When you take a look at some of their outlook here at TSMC, may raise its 2020, 2024 full year revenue growth guidance to the mid 20% level that was versus the previous guidance of the low to mid 20% level, citing that insatiable demand that we see for AI. And when you talk about that growth going forward, it doesn't look like anything is going to slow it down. So that that coupled with the pricing power and projections here, that they actually might be able to raise prices by as much as 5% versus that previous assumption of a 2% growth, they're really showing that there might still be some runway on the stock ahead, but we will see if Wall Street is right at this point. All right. Another call out this morning. We want to bring your attention to meta Wells Fargo raising its price target on meta to 625 bucks a share. That's up from 593. And taking a look as to why they are a bit more bullish on this name, they said that their checks suggest robust ads performance in the second quarter. Analysts are telling investors in that most recent research note they also expect Q3 revenue guidance of 38 to 40.5 billion. That implies six points here of constant forex a deceleration at the midpoint. So again, some upward movement within meta. They're saying that that's going to support their view as they see it in terms of where they are in that CapEx cycle. And some of those potential gains here. But again, they're saying that they have solid momentum keeping that overweight rating and raising their price target to 625 a share. >> Yeah. And interesting that they talk about it being a CapEx cycle, not an opex cycle, which is interesting. This is also not the only call that we are getting on meta here. We should mention that we also have this call from Wedbush happening a little bit earlier, prior to the Wells Fargo call that you were talking about Seana. But Wedbush raising their price target on meta. This is Scott Devitt from five 480 to 570. That implying an over 5.5% increase from their latest price. So it should be interesting to see particularly given that meta in the last earnings cycle, that it was really their first print, where they had kind of backed off from a defensive only strategy on their balance sheet being a little bit more offensive, using some of that free cash flow on their balance sheet to invest back in the company's growth, whether or not the street continues to reward them, even though they are shifting that strategy to using that cash on hand instead of just continuing to be defensive moving forward Seana. >> All right let's take a look at shares of Solaredge. Getting a boost on an upgrade to neutral from underperform at Bank of America B of A. Citing a more appealing valuation for investors since the stock is already pricing in quote worst case scenario when it comes to inventory write downs and monetization issues, you're looking at a gain of just about 9% back above 27 bucks a share. They raised their price target to, or at least looks like their new price target on the stock is 29 bucks a share. So again, seeing some upside there, given the fact that the worst case scenario, including those inventory write downs already been priced into the stock, they expect to see some modest recovery and a return to profitability in 2025. Actually, their price target was lowered to 29 from 44 bucks a share. Yeah, it's interesting because the words to watch here are both valuation and inventory, right. >> So obviously the valuation for the stock being something key to watch here. And that's certainly coming up with Bank of America. But they do talk about a worst case scenario including inventory writedowns and liquidity constraints. We also heard this from Citi saying that for the stock to work in the near term, management has to reduce that inventory. So that being a clear challenge and that the company is long term and sustainable. Profitability also continues to be a question. Citi rating this stock neutral in response to those question marks about sustained profitability, debt issuance for the company, and of course, the concerns around inventory being a little bit just too robust and concerns about managing that inventory moving forward. We know that this is a stock that pops up on our trending tickers from time to time here on Yahoo Finance, because it is that kind of solar name. That is an interesting play in an interest rate hiking cycle, but interesting to see this commentary coming out. Seana. Well coming up it is all about earnings season here. We're going to discuss what analysts need to hear from the big banks. Kicking off second quarter results on Friday. That's next on catalysts. >> It's a jam packed hour focusing on the biggest movers and shakers on wall Street. >> This is market domination and here every day is game day. >> We have one hour left until the market closes. >> It's game time for investors to make their final plays. >> The clock is ticking and we've got you covered with our quarter by quarter playbook. >> We're bringing you in on all the market action with step by step analysis of our biggest trending tickers and expert insight into the day's biggest headlines. >> We'll bring you the closing bell and get you to the finish line. >> This is market domination. >> Tune in daily from 3 to 4 p.m. eastern. >> It's already time for another cycle of earnings here. As we've got the unofficial kickoff for second quarter earnings. Starting up on Friday with the big banks. You've got JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and Citi all expected to report then. But first we've got some consumer names coming out here on Thursday. You've got Delta, ConAgra and PepsiCo all set to report here. Now expectations for second second quarter earnings are very high. Consensus forecast for the S&P 500. Do see earnings growing by 8.8% compared with a year ago. Now that would be the highest growth rate since the first quarter of 2022, according to FactSet. So what are analysts expecting to hear specifically from the big banks on Friday to kick off this earnings cycle? Here we've got Max Geis, a portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds, to discuss Mac. Great to speak with you here. Earnings expectations have grown across the board. But of course, that also applies to the big banks. How confident are you that they're going to be able to deliver on Friday? >> I think the setup is pretty good for the reporting season starting as you mentioned on Friday, a couple of weeks of banks, you know, if you look at the asset levels of the markets, the S&P is up about 5% for the quarter. So that's going to lift, you know, asset and wealth management earnings, especially at the big money centers, and then you also have, you know, a slight decline in the ten year which will help the marks on the MBS security. So, you know, you'll have a little bit of a positive for, tangible book, rising plus the operating capital contribution and to net worth, etc. So, we see continued steady progress here, also intra quarter, we had a couple of banks already highlighted investment banking with pretty strong JP Morgan said fees will be up, you know, 30% year over year. So that's that's a pretty good outlook. And you know, that translates into the other firms such as Goldman and Morgan etc. So we you know, we're pretty positive that the banks have had a good run here. You know, some of them are up over 20% this year, but fundamentally we think they're chugging along in in good shape when it comes to the expectation for deposit loan growth metrics. >> You expect that to remain muted here in the second quarter. It's going to be all about the guidance. What's it going to take to see some improvement here in the second half of the year? >> Well, I think there was, you know, some dynamics with taxes etc. There's more elevated this year than we have. The movement of the money market funds and out of the market, etc. So, lots going on there in terms of those dynamics. But I think, you know, we know that the overall industry, we see muted dynamics across the different platforms, but it would be nice to see kind of a gradual increase there and, you know, and growth going forward. And so you get that leverage, for NII in terms of a bigger balance sheet. So that's the one of the things we're going to be looking for a little guidance there, movement, you know, and certainly the big banks have been beneficiaries of flows so far. >> One thing I'm interested in is the read through that we get on the consumer from these big bank earnings. And it was interesting last earnings cycle, we had a lot of the banks indicating that they are giving us a read through of consumers in a certain income group, particularly higher income with a bank like Bank of America really only lending to folks with excellent credit. For example, here are the big banks still a signal of consumer health at this point, or is it a specific type of consumer? >> Right. >> So there's a couple of dynamics there. And I know there's been pressure on the kind of the lower end. And you know that's inflation and job growth etc. But you know we continue to see pretty strong metrics out of the higher end. If you just look at American Express in terms of their consumer, which is, you know, mass affluent, you know, that continues to do well, travel, etc, you can see that, you know, some of the retailing names that we've followed tangentially, you know, have been impacted by the, you know, the changing consumer patterns. But I think overall, deposit levels and consumer activity, look at charge, use of credit card balances, etc. still pretty healthy slowing. But you know, still pretty good for the for the big banks. >> Mac, when it comes to who is best positioned. So within your financial services opportunities, ETF looks like you own Bank of America JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, State Street, to just name a few. Where do you see the most value today? >> One one stock we like is, Wells Fargo, you know, so kind of a unique situation. You know, they had some trouble a few years ago. Charlie Scharf turning around, simplifying the business. And here you have a bank on its way to a 15% ROE trading at a forward, tangible book of about 1.4 times, and then you have this ultimate catalyst in the asset cap being lifted. So they've made some progress towards that with some of the other consent orders over the last couple of years, and again, you know, it's a it's a pretty simple platform. They're making progress in banking card, in terms of growth areas, and we see still very good value here in Wells. >> It's interesting to me that Citi is not included in that ETF. Why is that? >> So my colleague actually really likes Citigroup, I tend to favor the companies that have a little higher Roes. And so, you know, Citi is sub ten rows, so, you know, we tend to favor the companies that really generate capital like JP Morgan, Wells Fargo as it improves some of those institutions. So I think it's not so much not liking Citi. It's just we're finding more value in, Wells Fargo at this point. >> There is one of the, issues or challenges or concerns I guess, have been, however you want to phrase it, raised amongst investors over the last several quarters have been the exposure among banks to CRA, to commercial real estate. >> And a lot of that focus has been placed on the smaller, maybe more regional plays within the sector. But I'm curious from a Big Bang perspective, is that something that you're worried about? And I guess the levers that they have pulled, the positioning that they have altered as a result of some of the trouble that we are seeing within Syria, are they in a much better position than maybe we were a couple of quarters ago? >> Well, I think they've managed their risk to that moat of the market much better than, you know, the smaller regionals, etc. they have a lot more exposure to CRA. And we've we've seen the, the stress there. And it's, you know, there's great refinancing wave that's going to go through America will affect a lot of these properties. And you know, we'll see how that works out. But obviously the kind of the smaller banks have underperformed the bigger, ones. And that's partially a reflection of that better credit book with respect to CRA. And, you know, I think when you're a bank like Wells or JPMorgan, you're writing pretty significant loan sizes. And, you know, so there's a lot more due diligence, etc, that goes into some of this stuff and they're very sophisticated platforms. So I think in terms of managing the overall book, they've done a good job. They're very well capitalized. They're on top of their credits. And so I think just the exposure of being sub 10% for a lot of these companies and also being a specific areas of CRA that are doing better, you know, I think they're well positioned to do that. And you've seen that in the results this year. >> What is the single biggest thing that I can be looking at in these earnings reports on Friday to indicate how consumers are holding up? >> Well, I think just there's a host of great leaders, Moynihan Jamie Dimon, Charlie Scharf all these are, you know, they're great insight, great wide, access to economics across their platforms. And so you just look for that management commentary and you get it. And then, you know, Bank of America is a wonderful deck. You know, they list a host of different components to their balance sheet and their customers, etc. So there's lots of good stuff that comes out of these calls that you can kind of really sum up to get an understanding of the economy. And they also give some forecasts and foresight to as well. And what they're seeing, you know, intra quarter and what they expect to happen happen. >> All right. Max Sykes a portfolio manager with Gabelli and Funds, thanks so much for joining us. >> Thank you for having me. >> Well, coming up we're going to dive deeper into commercial real estate. We'll discuss why empty offices, vacant properties are a big concern for Wall Street. That's next. >> From the start, as a college social network to its focus on virtual reality, meta has become one of the biggest tech companies in the world. In 2023, it generated over $134 billion in revenue. And has nearly 4 billion active users across its various properties. Let's take a closer look at Meta's biggest moments with Beyond the Ticker. Meta began as Facebook, founded by CEO Mark Zuckerberg, Dustin Moskovitz, Chris Hughes and Edward Saverin in 2004. Originally a college student's only social network, Facebook expanded its membership to the general public in 2006. In April 2012, Facebook acquired the photo and video sharing social network service Instagram for $1 billion a month. After that, Facebook went public via IPO at $38 per share. The company was valued at $104 billion at the time. The largest valuation to date for a newly listed public company. In 2014, Facebook acquired the instant messaging and voice over IP service WhatsApp for $19 billion. That same year, it acquired Oculus, a leading virtual reality company, for 2 billion. In 2021, Mark Zuckerberg fully rebranded Facebook as Meta, saying that while it would still remain a social networking firm, the new name would also emphasize the company's new focus on the metaverse. In 2023, the Instagram team launched threads, a new text sharing app designed to rival Elon Musk's X platform. Later that year, the company released the Meta Quest three, the first mass market mixed reality headset, as well as its meta AI, a generative, AI powered digital assistant. In February 2024, meta announced its first quarterly dividend, sending shares of the tech giant soaring. Meta reached a new all time high stock price of $527.34 on April 5th, 2024, and surpassed the coveted $1 trillion market cap. The company is now leaning deeper into AI while continuing to push into the metaverse. The company's ultimate goal is to blend the two concepts into one coherent platform that can propel its growth well into the future. >> Some of the biggest names in the tech world, from Meta to Apple, continue to face scrutiny from European regulators. So will this wave of regulation abroad lead to more domestic legislation on this? To give us his take, we've got Tom Wheeler here, former FCC chairman and author of the book Techlash, who Makes the Rules in the Digital Gilded Age? Tom, it's great to speak with you. Thank you so much for being here with us. Obviously, AI makes the regulation of tech question even more prescient. I'm curious from your perspective, if you can just give us some context about what is at stake here, what is your base case for the consequences if no real AI legislation and regulation comes to fruition here in the US? >> Well, first of all, thank you very much for inviting me to be with you today. >> You know, I think when we look at AI, we've got to recognize that all of the things that have happened in the last 12 months that have our heads spinning are probably the least amount of change that we will see in our lifetimes. And so the question becomes, how do we deal with that? How do we transform from an industrial economy that was overseen by industrial era style regulation to a digital economy to an AI economy that has oversight to protect the public interest and the challenge thus far is that at least in the United States, our policymakers have failed to step up to that challenge. And we are seeing the rules being developed by other nations and by states in the United States, both of which will create new problems for those tech companies who rely on a uniform market. >> What, more specifically, do those problems do those issues look like? And you talk about the fact that some others outside of the U.S. have been taking the steps is what Europe is doing, is that are they saying a good example? Should the U.S. be following in Europe's footsteps when it comes to this? >> Yeah, I think Europe is inventing a new paradigm. If you will, where they are. They have said, first of all, we're going to step up and do something to ensure competitiveness and fairness in the market, something that American regulators have failed to do. And they've said, and we're going to do it in a new manner. We're not going to clone the old industrial era style regulation, which was micromanagement. Instead, we're going to say, here are the goals. Here are the four corners of what we expect for companies behavior and the companies knowing that are going to be expected to show us how they are complying. And that is a whole new approach. It is a much more agile approach. It is an approach that continues to encourage innovation and investment. And it is setting the standard for how we should approach things in the United States, if we will ever get to that point with a Congress that has a hard time making any decisions. >> Well, another key part of that of course, is who is in the executive branch from your perspective, who is better suited to oversee tech regulation from the white House, Biden or Trump? >> Oh, I think it's pretty clear that that Joe Biden, has a thoughtful set of policies. Whereas when we watched the Trump administration for four years, they were bouncing from this policy to that policy, depending upon apparently what the president was feeling that day. >> How confident are you? It doesn't sound like you're too confident. But if we do see some sort of gridlock in Washington following these results, what does that then tell us about the likelihood that we will actually make any progress on these types of regulations against big tech. And I'm curious from your perspective, what needs to be done, or what would your advice be for lawmakers here, given the fact that this has been an issue that has been brought up on both sides of the aisle, yet either side can't seem to agree with each other on exactly how to address these issues. >> Well, first you said against big Tech and I'm I am not proposing we do things against Big tech. What I'm suggesting is that we need to have a countervailing force that, you know, for the last 25 years, you had a wonderful lead in to this segment about the history of meta for the last 25 years. We have said, okay, innovators, you make the rules and we the public were just taking those. I mean, who decided that we would have no rules about protecting privacy? Who decided what the structural kinds of issues could be, who decided that we will see the kind of, aberrations and truth and trust that we have seen what we need are a set of counterbalancing expectations, not the micromanagement that we saw in the industrial era, but expectations that set the behavioral standards for these incredibly important companies. And I think it requires a whole new way of, of thinking about this. You were you were kind enough to mention my book. Techlash that's what the theme that's what the conclusion of that book is that we need to take an entirely new look at how we structure our oversight, that we have to have oversight of this, incredibly powerful, important, and contributory new set of technologies. And that, like, the technologies, innovators themselves, we must become equally innovative in how we create guardrails to protect consumers, to protect competition. >> And it is a good point, what you raise the issue with my question just saying against Big Tech. And I think that goes to this reframing of the conversation. Right. So I'm curious from also from your perspective, what do you think the involvement should look like from those within the industry? When we're talking about how best to regulate the tech industry? >> Yeah, I think the key is participation rather than, standing in front and saying, n, that, that, you know, the first rule in Washington is it's always easier to kill something than to pass something. >> And, and I would hope that what we could begin to see is the, the tech leadership sit down and say, we need new rules. Let's work together to draft them. You know, Brad Smith, the president of Microsoft, and Mark Zuckerberg, who you just did a piece on, have both endorsed the idea that we need a new digital platform agency with new approaches to regulation. Let's move beyond that. Let's sit down and start talking legislation. Senators Bennett and Welch have introduced a proposal like that in the Senate. Let's get specific, and start talking about really how do we create these guardrails in this new era? >> Tom Wheeler unfortunately, we have to leave it there. Former chairman of the FCC, thanks so much for taking the time to join us. And congratulations on your new book. >> Thanks. >> Keep right here on Yahoo Finance. Coming up, we're taking a deep dive into commercial real estate. Whether or not the worst is over for the sector, we will be speaking with the CEO of Marcus and Millichap next. Four years later, the commercial real estate market is still reeling with the aftermath of the pandemic. The rise of hybrid work, higher interest rates, and also mass layoffs posing a series of challenges for real estate executives, but also for the bank loans tied to them. With more landlords dealing with vacant properties, banks are starting to increase reserves for future losses. While some investors choose to pull out or seek alternative strategies of commercial real estate funds. Here to weigh in, we want to bring in Hassan Naji, he's Marcus and Millichap CEO Hassan. It's great to have you in studio. Thanks for coming in. >> Thanks for having me on. Great to be here. >> So let's talk about where things are, where things stand today within commercial real estate. I think a lot of investors are trying to figure out whether or not the worst is over. If the next couple of quarters is going to remain challenging, what do you expect? Well, broadly speaking, we've had four years of ups and downs that equate to what would normally occur in a 10 to 12 year cycle from the pandemic itself to the very, very sharp recovery post-pandemic and then two years of fed tightening in ways we haven't seen since 1980. >> That's a lot to digest for an industry that is very interest rate sensitive and very supply demand sensitive. So on the supply demand side of the equation, which is the most important part, the industry as a whole is doing great. We haven't overbuilt in the cycle. There are pockets of overbuilding in multifamily and industrial. But broadly we are not overbuilt and we are basically under demolished. If you think about it, in some sectors, like retail was 15, 20 years ago when e-commerce took over, now applying to the office sector. But even within the office sector, it's the older urban assets that are really suffering, showing loan delinquencies, seeing significant discounts of distressed assets, being sold into the marketplace, and then the suburban assets, office assets across the country are doing much, much better. Or newer properties are doing much, much better. So there's a lot of generalization that goes on about commercial real estate. It has 16 different branches self-storage, seniors housing, mobile home parks, retail of course, even within retail there's single tenant. And at least there's multi-tenant shopping centers, self-storage and of course apartments and hotels. So each one of these niches has its own cycle, has its own supply demand, and therefore investor demand. Right now, we're seeing a lot of opportunistic capital that's been waiting for the price corrections to start to come back into the market, because we've had two years of pressure from interest rates lowering values. >> How does the hopefully for investors impending rate cut cycle play into this? >> It's a very encouraging piece of news that hasn't materialized just yet. And what I'm really interested in seeing is the encouragement that we're seeing already with capital coming off the sidelines, buying assets assets at 15 to 20, discounts, which is pretty much what's occurred in the marketplace in general ahead of the interest rate reduction cycle. It will come at some point. That's only going to boost the activity level that we're already seeing the beginning of, of the pickup for. >> I'm curious what you think this recovery is going to look like. Because you're right. As we say, I think a lot of people lump cre together when there are a number of different verticals within it. Right So it's not a blanket weakness that you can call it across the board. But when we talk about the areas of it that have struggled, what does that recovery look like. And you mentioned some of those opportunities. Where are you seeing the most demand today? >> Great question. In that within each of the sectors, that broad brush is creating a lot of opportunity for smart investors because as a lot of people went on the sideline, the astute investor was in the market making offers, maybe not executing transactions, but being in the front end of where the prices would adjust to the point where they made sense. If you look at multifamily, for example, we've seen 2,025% price correction in most cases. If you just look at it on an apples to apples basis from peak to today, and those prices are below replacement cost, it's getting so expensive to build commercial real estate of any kind, and they're below peak by about 2,025. So when you see a good asset in a market, you want to be in as an investor at those price points, you almost don't care about the interest rate. You almost don't care about the fact that the loan that you would take on it would be at a much higher interest rate today than two and a half years ago, because interest rates will come in at some point. And over the long term, you know, that asset is going to do very, very well and it'll be very much harder to replace down the road. >> Hassan, thank you so much for joining us. We really appreciate it. That was great to be here. Naji. He is the CEO of Marcus and Millichap. >> Thank you so much. Thanks for having me. >> Well coming up, we've got wealth dedicated to all of your personal finance needs. Our very own Brad Smith is going to have you right here for the next hour. So stay tuned for more. >> Welcome to wealth, everyone. I'm Brad Smith, and this is Yahoo Finance's guide to building your financial footprint. Our community of experts will give you the resources, tools, tips and tricks that you need to grow your money. On today's show, it's a big week of economic data and the start of a new earnings season. We'll talk to a portfolio manager who will tell you what it all means for your money. And interest rates are at 23 year highs, but the fed is considering when it should start to cut some rates. So is now the time to invest in a certificate of deposit, commonly known as a CD? We'll get an advice, a piece of advice from an expert there. Plus are you retirement super saver status? No. Do you want to be? Well, we'll tell you what it means and what it takes to save big for the later years of your life. All that much more coming up on today's show. But first, let's take a look at some of the market action. We're 90 minutes into the start of today's trading activity, and you've got the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq all in positive territory. The S&P 500 flat just barely to the upside as well as the Nasdaq Composite. However the Dow seeing fractional gains of about 4/10 of a percent. Let's take a look at the week ahead. Tuesday we get a check on how small businesses are feeling about the economy with the NFIB Optimism index. We'll also hear from Fed Chair Powell as he kicks off his semiannual testimony to Congress. And then Wednesday we'll get more testimony from Powell and other fed members are going to speak to Thursday. That's when we get the all important June inflation report. Consumer price index. That's when that's dropping seven, 11 and Friday we'll get wholesale prices and consumer sentiment. So this week we've got plenty of economic data. You've got Slurpee Day at 711. And then you've also got some earnings from Delta, PepsiCo and ConAgra all reporting on Thursday JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citi. They report on Friday. So all of this and much, much more now you'll remember Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke at the European Central Bank forum last week in Portugal, where he said the U.S. economy is getting back on a disinflationary missionary path. So for more on what the latest economic data could mean for you and your wallet, we bring in our very own Josh Lipton. Hey, Josh. >> Brad, we had that big jobs report last week. This week, more important economic data is on deck this time. As you were mentioning there. The focus is on inflation. With the release of the June Consumer price Index coming on Thursday, economists expect headline inflation rose 3.1% annually in June. That would be a slowdown from the 3.3% rise seen in May. Prices are set to rise 0.1% on a month over month basis on a core basis, so excluding volatile food and energy items, CPI is forecast to rise 3.4% over last year in June, unchanged from May. Monthly core price increases are predicted to clock in at 0.2. The Federal Reserve will, of course, carefully examine the CPI print as another important data point, determining if and when they can start cutting rates, which affects borrowing costs for consumers and companies across the economy. Remember, there was that string of hotter than expected inflation data to start the year, which surprised our policymakers in Washington. The picture does seem like it has been improving, but central bankers still seem to be feeling cautious. We saw that in the minutes of the Fed's June policy meeting released last week, which investors look to for clues behind the policymakers thinking. Our central bankers said the progress toward their 2% inflation target had been modest, and that they still want more data to give them greater confidence that inflation is indeed returning sustainably toward 2, adding that some participants emphasize the need for patience. Still, investors bet that inflation is headed in the right direction that trend, coupled with a cooling labor market, will give our fed the cover they need to start cutting rates soon, perhaps in the fall. Markets currently assign a roughly 75% probability of a rate cut in September. Brad, back to you. >> Yeah, it's been really interesting to track, especially with regard to how the Fed's thinking could move at coming meetings. And I'm taking a look just at the CME fedwatch probability. A week ago this time we were looking about 60, 60 to 65% of a rate cut coming in the September meeting. You look at that. Now. You fast forward a week at this point. Now we're looking at about a 77% chance. So a significant jump even week over week. Some of the ISM data had really swung thing. And the common consensus thinking last week we'll see what this inflationary data sets up this week as well. And as you pointed out, Brad, also our central bankers are back on Capitol Hill. >> You know, Jay Powell in front of lawmakers will see what he says there too. Does he give any more indication. There are some economists who think, you know, maybe at least in July, does he start laying the groundwork for that cut in September? Sure. We'll see what kind of color commentary we get. >> Josh, appreciate it. Thanks so much for taking this up for us here this week, as big banks are also setting the stage this week with earnings season upon us once again, financials will be in particular focus over the next few weeks. 40% of the S&P 500 companies are set to report Q2 earnings over that period will be from the sector. This is according to FactSet. Now big banks, they've got a high bar to beat after its strong Q1 showing. For more on this, we're joined by John McClane, who's the Brandywine Global portfolio manager. Great to have you here with us, John. So let's just set it up for financials. What is the tune you expect them all to either sing in unison or how this could be a tenor that sets up the rest of the earnings season. Once we hear from these big banks. >> Yeah. I mean, I think what we're looking for, for angels is nothing too scary, right? So it's going to be a lot about loan loss provision. It's going to be a lot of commentary around commercial real estate. But expectations are that we're going to continue to see, reasonably strong earnings out of the banks here. >> And so with that in mind, what is the read in on the consumer that you expect we can extrapolate from some of these bank earnings? >> Well, so what we're going to see from the consumer is a continuation of a trend of a bifurcated market where the wealthy consumer is doing quite well. The liabilities that they historically had are fixed rate. Things like mortgages at very low rates, which are actually assets at this point in time. And so the high end consumer is doing well and spending and earning 5% in, front end treasuries or CDs, the low end consumer is going to continue to struggle here. I think we continue to see the pinch of inflation and the drawdown of excess savings. And I think you're going to continue to hear that trend from banks. >> If we hear from some of these big banks, and I'm thinking notably about what are typically the economic weather forecast updates that we kind of get from those like Jamie Dimon at JP Morgan Chase, where that could have the propensity to spook markets or rattle investors if there is some type of macroeconomic, condition that he's sensing or a symptom of something else that he's sensing that he communicates to the street, is there anything that's that's set up to spook investors for the second half of this year, as we're set to hear from some of the CEOs of these large banks? >> Well, I don't think you really want to read too, too much into, the reaction function over the coming weeks. >> It's the summer lull. Liquidity is relatively dry, in financial markets, and everybody's really waiting for, the election coming up. So I think that, we're not too particularly worried about what the banks are going to say and the reaction function at this point in time. >> Certainly. Let's talk a little bit about one other major theme that's driven earnings seasons past. And it's been artificial intelligence. And Nvidia to put a poster child name on top of it to what extent does this earnings season still hinge on Nvidia. >> Well yeah I mean look I the S&P 500 is effectively an AI index at this point in time. And so we've seen the bulk of the gains being driven by a handful of stocks. And Nvidia certainly being the poster child of that. So I think there are very high expectations going in to their earnings reports, and it's going to be tough to again beat. And really, again, where we're sitting with the rapid growth and market capitalization, the rapid growth of the underlying fundamentals of the business, it's hard to continue this type of growth rate over a sustained period of time here. So I think we're looking for potential, a little bit of an under, underwhelming report from from them relative to what is priced into the marketplace. >> So if that were to take place, I mean, it's likely that we're start to see we'll start to see some rotation into other areas of the market. Where does that broadening kind of best position for any investors that are looking to kind of take some chips off the table or reinvest them elsewhere? What does that rotation kind of, you know, best benefit at this juncture? >> Well, it's basically everything x I at this point in time, I think look, the underlying fundamentals of, the large cap US economy is reasonably strong here. So I think there's a lot of different places you can look, to reposition capital away from, kind of the excess speculative part of what we see in I, John McClane, who is the Brandywine Global portfolio manager. >> John, good to see you. Thanks for joining the show with us this morning. Thanks. Well President Biden doubling down on his intention to continue his legacy in a letter to congressional Democrats this morning. This after at least five Democrats called on the president to drop out of the race to discuss what a potential Biden exit means for your money. Yahoo Finance's very own Rick Newman is here, Rick. I mean, you just heard our previous guest, John McClain, talking about how the economy is strong right now and the Biden campaign and the administration has been trying to continue to communicate that. But it's had little success, as inflation is all the talk of the barbecue. It seems over the over the summer. >> Well, Biden, of course, hopes that that that will maybe not be the topic so much at the Labor Day barbecues in September, because the inflation outlook has been improving. And I think what Biden needs, voters, voters to do is just stop worrying so much about the price increases they've seen over the last three years. That's mostly been at the grocery store, people who rent have seen it in their rents going up. And of course, gasoline prices. So all these things are going in the right direction for Biden. Brad, I think it's just assuming he stays in the race. I think it's just kind of a race against time for him over the next four and a half months, is inflation going to improve enough so that within the weeks prior to Election Day in November, that's not the main thing people are talking about. And he can't jawbone this away. It just has to be something that consumers start to feel better about organically and so, Rick, for the internal workings of the Democratic Party right now, Biden putting this letter directly to those members of Congress who are pushing for him to step back and or step aside and allow someone else to really carry the mantle. >> What are we expecting to actually net out here? >> Well, President Biden is going to insist he is staying in the race until the very second that he changes his mind. I mean, the moment Biden says, well, maybe I will withdraw, I'm going to give it some thought. He'll he's dead in the water. The moment he says that he might be dead in the water anyway. But he's he's got to, you know, he's got to be in it to win it until he decides otherwise, so for everybody who hears Biden saying, I'm not going anywhere, he has to say that I think really the thing to watch at this point is, do we see mounting calls from even more Democrats and especially the name brand Democrats, that whose names ordinary people might know, that would be Chuck Schumer, the Senate majority leader, and Hakeem Jeffries, the, the House minority leader. So he's the top Democrat in the House, they have they have not said anything publicly suggesting Biden should, withdraw. They have been a little bit on the fence. Some of these people, Nancy Pelosi, for example, former House speaker, she said, well, what voters need to know about Biden was what what everybody saw on the debate on June 27th. Was that an episode or a condition? That's a that's a pretty good way to think about it. In other words, was it just a one time thing, or is Biden just foggy on kind of a regular basis? So watch for more prominent Democrats coming out and saying he needs to go. That would tell you which direction this is headed. >> Would a Biden withdrawal affect financial markets? >> it every investors are really scratching their heads over this because, this is markets are beginning to price in what seemed to be the probabilities of either a Trump Republican victory or a Biden Democratic victory. So markets are trying to figure out, well, if Biden's not the guy, if it's somebody else. The two questions to ask there. Number one, does it change the probability for one party or the other? Would it make Democrats? Would it would it give Democrats a better shot than if Biden stays in or a worse shot? If it's somebody who might seem like an even weaker candidate, that's number one. And then once markets digest that, they have to figure out what about specific policies that we have to care about. And there's a lot to care about here. One of them is tax policy. There's going to be a big difference between what Democrats and Republicans do when all of the individual tax cuts from 2017 expire at the end of 2025, so something has to happen there. And then Trump has these couple of wild card things, which is, you know, mostly tariffs. And he wants to go around finding illegal immigrants and throw them out of the country. This mass deportation thing, which would have economic implications. So there's a lot here for markets to digest. Brad, I think we're seeing small movements now, and I think we're going to see bigger movements in markets with regard to stocks and also interest rates, betting on inflation going up or down. After the election. We're going to see more, knee jerkiness once we get within a month or two of the election. >> Just lastly, while we have you here, because you triggered another thought here for us to say, some of our viewers are part of the, you know, text listserv and they they get these texts from either campaign, whether it be from Biden or whether it be from Trump. And they they donate this money in this specific case with Biden. What happens to that money that they did donate? >> Well, if you're a billionaire who has given $10 million to some super PAC, you should call up whoever's running the super PAC and say, hey, I want to know what happens to my money. Most people are not giving $10 million, but a lot of people are giving $20, $50. So those small donations, they don't go to super PACs. They go to, the political campaign, the Biden Harris campaign fund. And what happens to that money depends on if Biden withdraws, who takes over, if Kamala Harris, the vice president, takes over and she becomes the nominee, then all of the money, including all the small dollar donations that are in the Biden-Harris campaign committee, she gets control of that because she is listed as a part of that committee. If it is not Kamala Harris, then that money, could go to other uses. It becomes what's known as excess funds. It could go to the Democratic National Committee, it could go to other political committees. It would stay within the democratic universe. And just important to point out for anybody who's wondering, Joe Biden cannot convert any of that money to personal use, he can have a say in where what other political causes that money might go to. But if Kamala Harris becomes the nominee, then she would basically get it all. >> All right, Rick Newman, thanks so much. An extended Rick Newman hit here on the day covering a wide range of topics, all surrounding what's taking place with President Biden right now. Thanks so much, Rick. We've got all your markets action straight ahead. Stay tuned. You're watching wealth on Yahoo Finance. Interest rates are currently at a 23 year high, but the fed is considering the timing of its first rate cut. Here, the majority of traders think it will come in September, so it might be time to look at your portfolio to identify the rate sensitive areas. Examples include real estate bonds, high yield savings accounts and CDs, among others. Now, right now, plenty of banks are offering rates on CDs of 5% or more. But how does the Fed's policy decision play into those rates here? With more is Mark Hamrick, Bankrate's senior economic Analyst Mark, great to have you back on the program to speak with you on this. So, I mean, first and foremost, just the correlation that people need to remember and keep in mind between CDs and the Fed's rate policy here. What is that direct correlation. >> Good to be with you, Brad. Well, first of all, let's just sort of capture where we are right at this very moment because there's so much appropriate attention. >> I think most of it's appropriate on what the fed might be doing later this year. But the reality is that we have a policy setting meeting at the end of this month, and the fed is not expected to change its benchmark rate then. So we're really talking about expectations down the road. And if the experiences of the past days, months and years have meant anything. We're living in times of a great amount of uncertainty. So first of all, rates are still at high levels. And that's a tremendous opportunity for savers depending on their investment horizon, the amount of time they can allow money to be parked, and whether it's a high yield savings account, a 1 or 5 year CD. Americans are under saved. And so these are good products for them to look at in terms of. The simplest way to put it is that the Federal Reserve sets the tone for the interest rate environment. Broadly speaking, some of these things are more tightly correlated to what the fed does than others. But broadly speaking, if the fed begins to move interest rates substantially lower than we would expect, the rest of the rate environment, broadly speaking, to follow suit. But we're really talking about the expectation brand. The rates are falling like a feather, not a hammer. And so even if we get that 1 or 2 rate cuts by the end of the year, as so many people seem to be confident about, we're still talking about rates remaining at relatively high levels. >> What should a savers time horizon look like if investing in CDs? >> Well, really, it boils down to what are their demands or needs around that money. And so, you know, with barely a little more than 40% of Americans able to pay an emergency expense of $1,000 or more from savings, this is not everybody who's watching this telecast, but it's a big part of the American population. More people need to be saving. And for that part of the population, much of that needs to be available at rapid notice. So for those people, a five year CD is not a great option. But for people who, you know, really do want to park that money and have the guarantee of, of, let's say, a 4 or 5% return on that over five years. You know, they have a high degree of confidence that they will not need to withdraw that money and suffer the penalty for early withdrawal. For others who say, well, I might need the money, I might not. A high yield savings accounts, a good option for those who have a high degree of confidence. They won't need the money within the next 12 months. A one year CD is a good option. The yields are relatively high on all of these things, and so what I would say is much the same as with market timing. Don't focus so much on trying to nail the peak on rates with respect to CDs, etc. just get in the game. And so being a long term investor is somewhat aligned with being a long term saver. If you're in the game, you're going to benefit. >> And certainly and now as we're thinking about some of the other investments that are most notably impacted by the federal funds rate, where are other areas of exposure that could have a significant hit if we were to see that first rate cut come through in a broader pathway for more rate cuts come through. >> Well, you know, I don't know that that's where our focus really is, Brad. You know, I think the focus probably needs to be more broadly on the performance of the macro economy. And so you know, here we are just a few days out from the monthly jobs report that could and that is just in capital letters could have represented something of an inflection point in the sense of, well, you know, this was a little weak beneath the surface. Or we're going to see more weakness in the job market in the coming months, or will it continue to sort of, be consistent with the theme that we've seen really for several years now? And that is resilient and sustained stability. We just don't know the answer to that. And so, you know, it depends on the again, on the investment time horizon of individuals. If they think that this money that they have in whatever, wherever it's parked, if they can't afford to take a bit of a hit in the near term, then, you know, that's a question about, having a conversation about, sort of where your investments are allocated, whether you need to bring down dial down risk, but for most of us, you know, we're invested for the long term for the purpose of saving for retirement. And, you know, market timing on that has generally been a fool's errand. So, again, being in the game rather than trying to nail it on a day to day basis, you know, if anything, I think a lower interest rate environment going forward could speak to better prospects for improving market breadth because some of the interest rate sensitive sectors have been the ones that have really suffered in a high rate environment. If we have, an environment where rates are coming down, then it feels like those rate sensitive sectors are able to stabilize and perhaps be a bit more productive. >> Mark Hamrick, who is the Bankrate senior economic Analyst great to have you here with us on the program. Great to catch up with you, Mark. >> Always a pleasure, Brad. Thanks for having me. >> Certainly, everyone. We've got all your markets action straight ahead. Stay tuned. You're watching wealth on Yahoo Finance. 44% of American workers are retirement. Super savers. According to a 2023 Transamerica study. But what is this super saver? And how can you become one? Here? To break this down, we've got Ted Jenkin, who is the oxygen Financial CEO and Certified Financial planner. Ted, great to have you here on the program with us today. What is a super saver? Let's just start there. >> A lot of people are asking this question, Brad, but, you know, generally speaking, it's people that save 10% or more of their salaries. >> If they get a company match at work, it can be close to 15. And interestingly, in the first quarter, fidelity found here in 2024 that the average savings rate into 401 K's was 14.2, which is close to that 15% target. What's ironic about it across the generations is that generation Z has the most amount of super savers, and right now, generation X has the lowest amount of super savers. I think between the kids and their parents and taking care of both. That's what's making it lower for them. >> What are the common traits of a super saver? >> Well, the biggest thing is they're just not susceptible to lifestyle inflation. They use something called the rule of thirds, which means every time you get a pay raise at work, about a third is going to go to taxes, a third goes to fun, and then a third go to additional savings. In addition, a lot of these super savers now automatically enroll in their 401 K. It's roughly 60% of all new enrollees in 401 K's. It's automatic and they have increases in savings on an automatic basis. And then last, they have mentors, whether it's in a group where you have a financial advisor or a one on one somebody to talk about money savings and things like that. >> And so everybody wants to become a millionaire or have $1 million or maybe more. Why not more? Right How long does it take to become a millionaire if you're using that 401 K and the max kind of matching that you can get? >> Well, unfortunately, Brad, there are no microwave millionaires in America. For all the time that I've been doing this. It takes people about 26 years to become a millionaire in the 401 K at an average savings rate of 17. And that's what the reasonable rate of return is, making sure that they don't pull money out of their 401 K. That being said, still less than 2% of all Americans are millionaires in the 401 K, so we have a long way to go, but it takes roughly a quarter of a century to get there. >> You know, it's interesting, as we were looking through this survey and some of the findings here, it really comes back to for retirement savings, how many people are actually going above and beyond, and how many are not able to put away enough whether they've been hit by the pandemic and that tapped them, or whether there is a medical issue that they've had to deal with. There can be so many different factors, but is there a retirement savings crisis that's looming right now? >> You know, Brad, I think there is as exciting as it is to talk about super savers and people being millionaires in their 401 s. We still have a major gap in wealth here in America, because that means 56% of people aren't saving 10, and some of those people are saving zero. And while Americans have 1.2 trillion in credit card debt, half the people in America have not made a repayment to their student loan since last October. And auto delinquencies that are 20 year high. We have a real problem with people being able to save here in America. You know, I used to tell people, Brad, that retirement was sort of a three legged stool. You get a pension at work, you get Social Security, and then you have personal savings today. Brad, I think that's turned into a pogo stick. It's directly on the shoulders of Americans to save for retirement, because who knows about Social Security? And certainly companies don't give out pensions anymore. >> Yeah. Well, we certainly got to change some of the inputs to remediate some of the wealth gaps and equity disparities as well. Perhaps that would put us on a better track. Also, Ted, thanks so much for taking the time here with us today. Ted Jenkin, Oxygen Financial CEO thanks for having me, Brad. Certainly only 11% of couples retire at the same time. This is according to an Ameriprise report and with that comes some complications, like changes in spending habits to discuss Yahoo Finance's very own Cory Hannon is here. Hey, Cory. >> Hey, Brad great to be here. Yeah this is kind of interesting to note because there's been a dramatic shift in just a quick bit of history. If we went back two decades, most couples there was a primary breadwinner. And when they retired it was pretty simple to figure out what spending and retirement would be like. You could maybe bump it up a little bit the first two years to have some fun, but then everything settled down to kind of steady Eddie. But as dual career couples have emerged as the most common thing in American families, we've got these dual career couples and they're not retiring at the same time. So one might still be, you know, pedal to the metal, the other is retiring. And so it becomes a bit murky. And how do we figure out how do we get a grip on spending in retirement. And so JP Morgan Asset Management also did this very interesting study that really pushed and looked at the volatility that they're seeing in spending. So what across time they see these surges in spending. So retirees are couples are households are spending surges. Then it downshifts. Then it upshifts and downshifts. And by volatility they're talking about a 20% shift in spending one way or the other. This makes planning super difficult. So you know what happens is if you do have that big spending surge right at the beginning of retirement, you're pulling away from your retirement accounts. And if you're going to live for three more decades, good luck. Right. So you need to be very conscious. The old 4% used to be the rule the tent pull. It still is of how much of your retirement savings you can pull out each year in retirement. But with two couples retiring at different times, this all gets a little bit complicated because, you know, they almost feel like, hey, we've got two incomes now, let's just keep rolling with spending. So what has to happen here is you know, there are ways to kind of get a get a feel for this. And I encourage people, you know, sit down before one of you retires. This is very possibly going to happen in your household. Let's talk about what spending might be like moving forward. And it's a pretty fraught issue. People hate to talk about this. So if you can get couples to kind of get on the same page about, okay, I am going to be planning on spending a bit more, you're still working, but we need to manage this. If possible. Get comfortable with the idea of spending in retirement. I mean, people often go into a panic about the idea of spending in retirement. This is on the other side of the flip side because we're so conditioned to save, save, save, save, save. So you want to also work on ways to get rid of that fear of spending as well. So it's two sides of the coin conversation, communication and getting at ease. I often, you know, I really think it's important if you can work with a financial advisor that's unbiased to help you kind of even out the spending plan for the surges. Perhaps if that's what you need to do, and if you think you're going to have these upswings, then by all means try to push back. Taking social Security to the latest date when you're age 70 and get the biggest bang for your buck in your in your check moving forward. >> Kerry. >> Excellent lay out there I appreciate it. Thanks so much. >> Thanks, Brad. >> We've got all your market action ahead, plus even more of your personal finance wealth building coming up on the other side of this short break. You're watching Yahoo Finance. Homeowners equity has reached a near all time high. This according to new data from CoreLogic. For more details on what it can mean for the housing market, let's bring in our own Rebecca Chen. Hey, Rebecca. What can you tell us about this data? >> Hey, Brad. It's good to be here. That's right. So we're seeing that home owners are building a lot of wealth through their homes. And from this CoreLogic report, we saw that the average US home owner gained about $28,000 over a year on their houses alone. Homeowners now have about a little bit more than $300,000 in equity through their real estate, and this is a near record high. Collectively, US homeowners with a mortgage now has a $17 trillion of Tappable equity sitting on the market right now. And I do want to highlight a little bit of what is going on through the States. We saw that in this report. We saw that California, Massachusetts and New Jersey scene has seen some of the highest and most robust homeowner equity gains throughout the last year. For example, California alone home. The average homeowner there had a $64,000 increase in their housing wealth. Whereas this number was $61,000 for homeowners in Massachusetts. So as we can see, these are quite, quite an amazing increase over the past year, I would say. And I do want to provide a little bit of context of what home equity is, and that is what your home is worth minus the mortgage you owe on this house. So, for example, if your house is worth $400,000 and you owe about $100,000 of mortgage on this house, you're tappable equity or your housing wealth is $300,000 and that is yours. It belongs to you. When you sell the house, you get to take that, with you. And the reason why home housing equity has been gaining at such a pace is, of course, due to home sale prices. As we see home sale prices increase, the owner's wealth definitely increase along with that. So even though we have seen or some data is showing that the gain in home prices is slowing down, home owners did already and have and continue to see a great increase through their housing wealth. >> And so Rebecca, mortgage rates, they continue to remain high here. What kind of impact does that have on Tappable equity? >> That's a great question, Brad. One of the experts I spoke with said that even though home homeowners equity is at a near record high, it doesn't mean it's easy to tap into their equity right now. In fact, housing experts are sharing that they're seeing a lot less homeowners taking advantage of their tappable equity. And the reason is because mortgage rate has been so high that borrowing costs is too high to, you know, take, take any additional loans or mortgage out from their house. We also talked to another expert who said that because mortgage and housing prices are so high, it's a little bit more difficult to use your equity these days, because if you sell your house and get another one, unless you pay all cash, the mortgage rate, your financing cost is going to be a lot higher. So definitely not as many people are taking advantage of this right now, so, you know, experts really just recommend that if you want to tap into your home equity, definitely look at your circumstances and what makes the most sense, because we are in a relatively high mortgage rate and interest rate environment right now. >> Certainly. Rebecca Chen, thanks so much for really extrapolating all the details from this CoreLogic study. Appreciate it. The great wealth transfer is supposed to take place in the coming decades, with baby boomers passing along about $84 trillion in assets to millennials, according to a citizens Bank survey. Our next guest says that millennials are not ready for this influx of cash. Here to discuss why and tell us why is Sal Buscemi, who is the Brahman Partners co-founder and managing partner? Those are fighting words for me, Sal. I'm a millennial. I feel like I feel like I'm kind of ready. I might not be fully ready. I still want my family members to be around of course, but how can we be more prepared perhaps, than we already are? >> Hey Brad, thank you very much for having me here. It's a pleasure and a privilege to be frank with you. The millennials, you know, as far as the wealth transfer that we're seeing at the higher levels, meaning the top 1,000th of 1, there's usually strategies in place with these families to make sure that that wealth moves over in a meaningful way. But when you're looking at the middle class and you're looking at 401 K's and other things like that, I think what you're going to see is that they're not prepared for it. But I don't think that that is really going to take the beneficiaries, meaning people like yourselves, the millennials that far going forward with the way inflation has been ripping for the past, you know, year and a half at least. >> Where is the majority of that wealth transfer in terms of the types of assets that we're expecting to transfer over? Where is the majority of that kind of sitting right now? >> Majority of that, at least that I look at are in real estate, commercial real estate mostly. And of course, real estate all over the country. But it also resides too in private equity and venture. You're starting to see private credit, meaning instead of people going to a bank for a loan, they're going to wealthy families. And there's these pools of credit that are available that allow people to sort of insulate themselves from risk in a different way, to be able to participate in a different way. As far as income streams are concerned. And then there's also the stock market, too, as well. And that's mostly driven by middle class savings in 401 K's and other tax advantaged vehicles. And that will send over. And I think don't forget that Uncle Sam's going to want his cut of the take too, before that transfers over as well. It might not be the most efficient transfer, but he's waiting there with his hand out. >> Yeah, always seemingly so for actionable tips that that people can start to put to work right now as they're having their own family financial planning, what are some of the actionable, perhaps three ways that people can start talking about the great wealth transfer at the dinner table over phone calls, at family events, so that they can better position themselves? >> You know, it's a it's a very good question. It's also a very emotionally charged answer. And I think the sooner that you have the details up front with who's getting what and how much, that would be great. You don't see that very often until it's postmortem and a will, and that causes all sorts of contention. Number two, I would advise everybody here to really get their own private wealth advisor, beforehand. So they know what's going on so that there's going to be a smooth transition because you are going to need someone to hold your hand through this process, especially when you're dealing with for some would be lottery sums of money, millions of dollars being transferred to them. And then after that, you have to really do is prepare yourself before you do, inherit all of this. What do you want to do with it? What are you looking to do? Are you looking to put your sons and daughters through college? Are you looking to start a business? Are you looking to do something? Foundation with a foundation or something? Perhaps as it relates to, charity work. And that's really something that a lot of people are always thinking about is like, once I have this wealth, what do I do with it next? And depending on your personal needs, you can take it very far. >> All right. Sal Buscemi, who is the Brahman partners Co-Founder and Managing Partner, great to have you here with us today. Appreciate it. Thank you Brad. >> Thank you. >> Certainly less than half of women are confident about their finances. But 94% of women believe that they'll have to be personally responsible for their finances at some point in their lives. This is according to a Bank of America report to discuss how women can feel empowered about their finances. Laci Garcia, who's the Willow founder and CEO, is here with us. Laci, great to have you on, especially on this important topic. So let's begin with why this certainly is the case, right now and where we're starting to see it shift a little bit. >> Thank you so much for having me on. Pleasure to be here. Well, I just heard your former speakers all talking about the great wealth transfer. And first and foremost, women are the greatest recipients of that great wealth transfer, not only as spouses but just talking about millennials, but also the daughters and also women are creating starting more businesses than any other cohort and are creating wealth and, you know, really the breadwinners and half or more of all homes in the US, but they have not historically felt that they were understood or empowered by the financial services industry. They have felt that they have not been able to take control of their finances, because they haven't been able to find an advisor that they trust. And that's what we focus on and trust. Worldcom making sure advisors understand the unique needs of women and that they are able to empathize, educate and empower them to, you know, take control of their finances, but also to achieve their life goals as well. >> When you think about that, too, and you mentioned Willow, of course, is leaning and is purely looking at the financial technology landscape and really discovering where you can play even more of a role into making sure that women have that financial independence, too. What are some of the top planning techniques that many women are looking to put into action when they come and engage with Willow? >> Yeah, I think that, you know, first, people, women are coming to us or not just women, but also next gen investors and underrepresented investors. Those who haven't felt like they've been able to find the advisor who understands them. You know, our first and foremost, looking for that trusted guidance and advice. But thanks to technology and obviously we use AI to actually strengthen the ability of advisors to connect with investors and to support them. And there are so many technology and tools out there to help, you know, not just women, but but all investors to better budget, you know, and have a better sense of, first of all, what is my life cost? You know, how how much money am I spending and how much money do I need to save. And so those tools are there to help to empower them, and also to help them to find the right financial professional who can provide that trusted guidance and advice that they need to feel, you know, confident and in control of their of their money, especially in these uncertain times that we're living in. >> You know, it's really interesting. In one of our earlier segments as well, we were mentioning and kind of concluding with the thought that, you know, some of the planning also becomes a little bit easier or more confident when we're doing more work to also close the equity and the pay and the wage gap across genders, too. Where are you seeing even more of that work continue to be done? And then ultimately kind of remediate some of the stresses of financial planning? >> Yeah. So I think what's really critical is that, you know, the industry needs to understand that for, for women, for underrepresented investors, that these pay gaps have existed, that, you know, the challenges that that, you know, create a big gap in their ability to save for retirement and the amount of money that they're earning over a lifetime. And then to be able to really create not just products, but also strategies to make sure that women and younger and next gen and underrepresented investors are able to then, you know, achieve the retirement income that they need, but with an understanding that they start from, you know, perhaps a place of disadvantage. Right. And so that's really critical. And, you know, the industry is starting to pay attention. But that is our focus too. And making sure that advisors really understand the circumstances. They understand, you know, how they can truly support these investors in being able to, you know, save enough money to invest properly so that they are able to set themselves up, you know, for success in retirement and for taking care of themselves and their family throughout their lifetime and beyond. >> Laci Garcia Willow Founder and CEO, thank you so much for taking the time here with us. We appreciate it. >> Thank you Brad. >> Certainly. >> Coming up, everyone. Hurricane Beryl makes landfall in Texas. How the homeowners can protect themselves in this situation. That's next on well. Hurricane Beryl, now downgraded to a tropical storm as it touches down in Texas. But still brings hazards from intense wind and rain. So how do you protect your home from a situation like this? Joining me now is Don Griffin from the American property Casualty Insurers Association. Don, thanks so much for hopping on with us to discuss this. Of course, many first and foremost there is the human element of this, and we hope that everyone out there who's able to tune in is safe and making preparations accordingly. For those who are trying to wrap their minds around the necessary insurance that they'll need for an event like this, especially as we're seeing it pass over Houston right now, what do they need to be keeping in mind at this poin? >> Sure, the biggest thing they can keep in mind, if they have time and if they haven't done so already, and if they have time before it hits, it's a great idea to walk around your home and take a video of all the things in it, with your phone, if you have no other way to do it, or if you haven't got an inventory of some way. That's the first thing, well, that's the second thing. The first thing is make sure you're safe and you get out of your, out of harm's way when you can, so make an inventory. That's key, take your, if you have your your some a lot of companies have apps for their insurance. If you, have that information on your phone, that's fine. If not, please at least grab your phone, your your policy and take it with you, so you have it with you when you go, and how you get prepared, if you're still time, you can board up anything you can save. To save the windows and save anything that gets save the water from getting in or elevate anything that way, there's a lot more you can do. But, you know, I guess the biggest thing for now is to make sure you have those pieces of information with you and some, video of what you have, so that you can be prepared when you go back. >> Certainly. How long should homeowners be prepared to wait for a disbursement or a payment after a claim? Is submitted? >> Yeah, that's an interesting statement. When there's an event like this, one of the things that everybody tries to do, the companies trying to do is they try and get people there as soon as they can. Part of that depends upon the safety of getting the claims adjusters into the area. Also, being able to, adjust the claims on the spot. Many companies have mobile trucks, computers and things, and as long as they have hookups and can get internet service and can do things that way, they can oftentimes issue a check on the spot at least for the temporary living expenses that you might need, or some of the immediate damages that need to be repaired to prevent further loss. But it's it can be a very quick process, depending upon your level of damage, or it can be a very long process. Perhaps if the if the home is completely destroyed. >> We know that NOAA has been tracking year over year some of the billion dollar disasters that have taken place and climate change has certainly led to even more severe weather systems that have moved through that. We've had to continue to track the economic damages of how are we seeing insurance kind of adjust and homeowners as well try to kind of take that into account when they are selecting the policy for them. >> No. No problem, I appreciate that. And climate change is certainly something we're concerned with, but what we're more concerned with is making sure that people have the right coverage for when the event occurs. And that's going to happen, whether it's, related to climate change or not. What we have seen is a lot more frequency and severity in the past few decades. Related to, the financial loss that people sustain, and the number of and the intensity of these kinds of events, the key is to, I think for most people is to make sure they have the right coverage and to make sure that they, can, get back to their homes in a safe way before they go back, the right coverage would be, you know, you need to make sure in this case, whether you got windstorm or, flood insurance, those are key, particularly in that in the Houston area, I lived in Houston area for about nine years myself. And worked in between Houston and Galveston. And so I know that that particular area can get very hit very hard, with these storms. What we're seeing is they're getting hit more often. And that's the problem. Yeah, certainly. >> Don, thank you so much. And I join you as well as many other viewers out there, potentially, that do have family and friends that are in that area. So, continue to check in on them during this time as well. Don Griffin from the American Property casualty insurers Association, thank you so much for taking the time, giving people some actionable tips at the time. Absolutely everyone that does it for wealth here today, I'm Brad Smith. Thank you so much for watching. You can stay tuned. We've got even more Yahoo Finance coming your way. Market domination with Julie Hyman and Josh Lipton starts at 3 p.m. You don't want to miss it. |
4D-AnZkVXvY | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4D-AnZkVXvY | 2024-07-05 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | US jobs data revisions reinforcing cooling economy, rate cuts | [Music] hey welcome back to Catalyst I'm joined Now by Yahoo finances Nez foray Nez thanks so much for joining us on the desk here let's dive in to the currency market for this next conversation the US dollar is edging slightly lower after the US added more jobs than expected in June for more on this we have Jane Foley who's the head of FX strategy at RBA Bank great to have you here with us this morning first and foremost want to get your reaction to what we saw come through in that piece of economic data and why we might be seeing this type of reaction what the typical kind of nature of and correlation to the dollar and the employment report is well first of all thank you for having me but this wasn't necessarily all about that headline number it was about what else came within that report and particularly the revisions so we saw a significant downward revision to the last uh two months worth of payrolls data meaning that a month ago when we were here you know staring at what we thought was a very very strong payrolls report that month well actually it wasn't as strong as we thought and so in addition to that downward revision uh we also got a tick up in the unemployment rate and I think put that all together you know and you can say yes you know what we we got a report which perhaps uh went into the same sort of uh way as the economic data that we had earlier that the week was suggesting which is a cooling in the US Labor Market certain certainly uh not one that is falling out of bed but certainly one that is Cooling and and that only served to just reinforce some of that excitement that had built during the course of this week that yes you know what a a Fed interest rate cut in September and then maybe even later in the year as well is certainly you know a primary uh risk certainly and and how many cuts are are you pricing in from your own perview well here at rubber bank it's it's two which I presume is too far away from a market consensus so a September interest rate C and probably another one in December but that said uh you know all economists in addition to you know the FED policy makers are still going to be looking at forthcoming economic data to get further justification for those sorts of forecasts uh I think so far you know the data that we had this week the ism numbers uh that the the labor data that we had today that the labor sub index of the ism data all point to the prospects that yes you know the economy is slowing down sufficiently to bring that interest rate cut but again you know you look at that price is paid Subs seor of the ism it's still quite sticky so you know that there are still elements here with respect to inflation and particularly Services sector inflation that policy makers are still going to be a little bit concerned about |
oKW9We7HcFw | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oKW9We7HcFw | 2024-07-05 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | What US jobs data, UK election mean for global rate cuts | let's bring in our next guest for more on the latest jobs numbers Bea man myy is the city Global Equity strategist B thanks so much for joining us this morning I want to get your read in on what we're seeing more largely here on the trend of economic data that's coming in so City economies have been highlighting for quite some time this underlying weakness in the labor market so under the surface weakness and this is starting to play out and and be visible in the in the coming data especially today and what that means is there is a silver lining and uh City Economist view is that we are indeed going to get the F first cut out of the FED uh this coming September yeah uh how many rate cuts are you you expecting uh from the fed this year so we are above consensus there we have uh well City economists for the US have three cuts starting in September so your expectation is that inflation from here will continue to slow in large part because of continued slowing job growth correct so inflation is slowing down the underlying weakness in the labor market is starting to show off uh show up um the FED has a dual mandate and they are going to act on it with that in mind as we're taking a look at the probability for a September cut I mean what what as we're you know looking past almost this year because now we've gotten from six or seven cuts that we were talking about coming into this year down to one maybe two what does that set up for 2025 that's a good question remains to be seen we see continuation of cuts into the next year but of course as you mentioned the market has been changing its mind uh a lot this year and and has been quite data dependent so remains to be seen we see more Cuts coming um coming through in the next year as well Bata you are a global Equity strategist uh so I would love to go a little bit more Global with this conversation we got to get your reaction to the UK election results prime minister tendered his resignation this morning to King Charles what can we expect from a majority labor Parliament so I'm most of all European Equity strategy so I can tell you much more in detail about what it means for equities so in terms of the election very widely anticipated outcome what you need to know about it that it's a more business friendly uh labor party that we are having right now and in terms of what it means for the equity Market it's really going to play out number one through rid and number two through Sterling so in terms of growth for the so and our view on on footy 100 or M UK we are not we are more bullish on other markets than this particular one however within the UK our preferred trade election trade is footsy 250 versus 100 or small and medium siiz stocks versus large siiz stocks so they are more exposed to local economy they have um they are better positioned to benefit from the rate cuts that are coming through perhaps as soon as AUST from from Bank of England they are more exposed in a positive way to potential strengths in the pound that we see in the short term and also what is very important is that they have derated a lot versus large Cuts or footy 100 over the past two years they are down they underperformed 25% since the peak in 2001 underperformed year to date and they are actually uh showing a superior EPS growth um double double the one for for footy 100 or the larger larger cup so that our preferred uh trade in the post-election world for for the UK for those us investors concerned about volatility uh ahead of the election and they don't want to play Europe because Europe is growing very slowly it's unclear when they when the ECB make come across with another rate cut are there emerging markets that investors that us investors could look to for potential Alpha so in terms of our Global allocation we are right now over waging the US market which we have recently um upgraded to overweight immediately in the aftermath of this snap election announced uh in France downgraded Continental Europe to neutral Emerging Markets are already neutral but within Emerging Markets uh those countries that we like the most are Taiwan Korea and India appreciate the Insight B man uh City Global Equity strategies good to see you have a good weekend likewise |
DCwft9NGUfU | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DCwft9NGUfU | 2024-07-05 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Saks parent HBC, Neiman Marcus reach $2.65B acquisition deal | the parent company of saaks Fifth Avenue HBC says it will acquire nean Marcus group in a$ 2.65 billion deal I mean I want to be more excited about this but I think this has been and I've talked to Mark metrick before I think he has been working on this for some time so this was largely to be expected but it really it comes against a backdrop of really of a department store space that's continues to fall apart you have Macy's closing hundreds of stores I think this is ultimately a play I think on the e-commerce business for these companies and then maybe for the the offprice business I was going to ask you s like what is the future of the department store business like in general I mean I think Macy's is giving you a taste of it it is probably you have 200 to 300 uh stores open in a locations the best of the best and everything else just doesn't exist anymore it's just all online it just is online Okay that was going the followup though is like is there a combined e-commerce business here and I say it because I find myself as a consumer and I think the businesses find this as well every one has pretty much everyone now they would say some of the luxury houses they play with maybe don't have any eCommerce presents but pretty much everyone does and I usually have a general idea of what I want and you know let's call e-commerce Warehouse type um websites you know even the X Amazon division it's not the most pleasant experience like browsing through a variety of Brands I don't really know what I'm getting so if I'm at a combined sax Neeman website I'm going to see some brand I would probably rather go to that Brand's website and figured out for myself there it's more coherent inside of a brand that's why the the ultimate player is a Louis Vuitton that is well off its eyes this is a brand that has been able to control their own destiny they're opening shops you want Louis Vuitton you go to a Louis Vuitton store and get that full-on experience it's just a better experience well here's the thing the the reason that department stores to your point did so well was because people didn't know what they want so what's what's become the kind of modernday resolution for that for retailers online it's inferential techn techology artificial intelligence in some cases that tells you what you want and essentially takes your purchase history and is able to aggregate enough information around you to suggest hey you're either running low on this or this is where we're going to uh generate demand in another part of your home or in your lifestyle and then on top of that the mall was successful because of traffic traffic has shifted to go online or the new mall is essentially on your Instagram app where you're just searching through there and you get a bunch of ads that you get thrown in front of you as if you were walking through a mall and having that Discovery uh process taking place in a virtual concept instead yeah and I think like you know we we talk a lot about our own data and the Integrity of our data where it goes but to your point Brad I think I've made pie at least and think a lot of people have um okay Instagram knows pretty much everything about me guess what over time they'll probably Target me something that I will eventually buy and I'll be like you know what I do like that I did want that exactly and that's fine you know you would Pro you would appreciate think the Nuance on this one I think the story here is is Amazon uh being a minority investor in this combined company as they're not only an investor but they're also focus on Logistics if I'm a UPS and FedEx I'm looking at this I'm like Amazon is really playing ball in logistics right now the subex it's a whole different conversation that we don't have time for but the whole subtext of the what do you do with these combined e-commerce storefronts the Amazon experience has plenty of problems that we could go for hours about and I wonder how the current team with all the AI pressures what's going on at a AWS what they do with the retail piece going forward to make that just like a more Amazon experience I mean there's plenty of good things about it but there are plenty of things about going on Amazon and a lot of other you know Warehouse type e-commerce sites these days that is uh not the greatest thing that I've ever experienced no well said |
MILiWkyupJs | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MILiWkyupJs | 2024-07-05 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Tesla stock rally continues as robotaxi reveal date nears | [Music] shares of Tesla in the green this morning continu its comeback after second quarter delivery beat analyst estimates earlier this week Shares are up over 20% for the past 5 days and it's just only in Tesla land guys you'll see a company show declining deliveries and this is an embraced set of results I think a lot of the folks right now are just afraid to be short this name into that August 8th Robo taxi event well also the stock was down 40% year to date at its lows in May to April so if you were short coming into if you were short coming into this year um I think there's probably a you know hey we don't need to press our bets anymore at this point and as I've been looking at this you know rally because an S has written three days in a row now a Tesla story for us and the story is kind of just like St keeps going up because you know what it's worth letting people know hey Stock's still going up and I'm wondering if there is not an like look at what happened with xai they rais a bunch of money there's some bullishness about the general Elon verse if that's not a part of like the meme part of the Tesla stock as like the purest play on Elon Musk if things in general for Elon musk's business interests are looking up Tesla is the place that you can express that most easily as an investor or as an individual investor who you know does not have access to things like a SpaceX secondary well let's remind folks too I mean he is disappointed at some of these events the energy they had an energy storage event he let people down I think the stock got hit too so there's no guarantee that come August 8th El's going to come out with this mindblowing U rival that's going to instantly take market share on under a year if if history is any God he won't he won't what targets has he met the Cyber truck even when it did come out blackluster on actually meeting what was promised going into the launch of that I saw my first cyber truck yesterday I actually tou I saw the I saw it but I actually touched it I touched it touched the side it was pretty cool it was a good moment was the texture it's it's big it's just smooth it's weird it's too big it's too big it's too big can't this thing anywhere on the road they are very big um but you know the stock is now break making it way back towards break even for the year so you know look we can we you can kind of hack up the time frame with Tesla at any point in time and find a good or bad story well the robo taxi was supposed to come out in 2020 I mean this this this entire fleet was supposed to be something that happened four years ago now you can give them a little bit of Grace I guess because of the pandemic but then at what point do you say okay you guys promised us this by 2020 we'll give you a what one year twoe Grace perod I just feel like you cannot if you're if you're in this thing you cannot earnestly sit there and be like Elon is disappointing me again it's like it that that story is so well baked you are just making a long-term bet on elon's vision and the deliverables meeting these certain timelines that is stuffer stiffs to talk about I mean I just don't think that can really be part of it you have to have made peace with that already because it's 2024 he's been at it with this company now for 15 16 years so at it with everybody too SEC his own investors oh there's folks on the internet yeah exactly one part of the internet that he owns too |
Fqvq5QwmfpE | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fqvq5QwmfpE | 2024-07-05 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Apple stock: Evercore ISI maintains Buy rating over AI strategy | we're also looking at Apple this morning because we're always looking at Apple always evercore isi reiterating their buy rating and a $250 price Target on the stock firm saying the company had another good month for the iPhone you're taking a look at shares up by about 1 and a half% right now um okay so another good month for Apple I think it's going to be a larger question though of how many people are waiting to get into the new iPhone because of the promises that they were making at WWDC is generative AI enough of a demand generation driver for Apple in the next inflection this dat is pretty um pretty compelling shipment data up uh in May according to ever core isi 40% year-over year coming off a growth rate of 52% in April that's good uh suggesting that this acceleration is easing concerns about Apple's position in China I mean China has been a just a weak spot for Apple at least for the past several quarters you know I was reading this note and I was thinking about another note we saw from Mike citz on Wednesday but he doesn't want to talk about the S&P anymore and because the S&P is all AI right and I'm reading this note and like okay we want to do the AI iPhone upgrade super cycle but go back in time a few months the story was Apple's not playing in AI why the stock is lagging and you sort of wonder if we start to sour on the AI theme even a little bit in the second half of this year wouldn't it be great for Apple to just go back to talking about regular iPhone sales in China in its biggest growth market and they don't have to worry about AI they make a ton of money they pay a dividend they buy back a ton of stock it's a safe place as an investor to say hey we're overweight Apple it was not very fun to say that a few months ago because there again was not quote unquote an AI play that story obviously we've seen the stock chart you know since late April has really turned around but being a more conservative entrant within that field and just getting back to the basics of selling a lot of people a lot of iPhones and a lot of services related to the iOS system maybe that's the best play for Apple yeah who be to argue with Warren Buffett I mean Big Time holder and Apple guy knows a thing or two well somebody else executed the trade and he probably just had to sign off on it but you know at the end of the day for Apple if you go back in the anals of History they never going to be kind of over the past two decades instances where you look at Apple and say they were a first mover in putting technological innovation out there they see what the market demand profile looks like they get a sense of what the fair pricing that consumers who have already bought into their ecosystem would be comfortable with and then maybe say well over time we might be able to charge a little bit more but they've never been especially under Tim Cook never been the one to say okay we're going to be first in MP3 players or at least that was back when he was CEO um or coo excuse me um we're not going to be the first ones to be you know fully uh touchscreen phone even under jobs at that point there were other instances of innovation where companies beat them to that and generative AI is another instance where they're being extremely calculated and I think that's where we didn't hear from them for months almost a year essentially on the generative AI front so that they could be conservative to your point but calculated as well yeah I mean and go all the way back to the jobs report today if the economy is entering a different phase and markets are entering a different phase isn't it better for you to have a better Core Business to talk about rather than to say our story is playing in the next gen of tech because rates are high uh the situation for your core customer base regardless of what business you're in is going to be changing isn't it just better for Apple to say we're all got our Macs on the table and our iPhones on the table Julie says the job is job Mark is going to stay hot so she's good well we'll see you know we'll see all right |
HjbjqkonzMo | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HjbjqkonzMo | 2024-07-05 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Real wages outpacing inflation under Biden: Acting Labor Secretary Julie Su | in the June jobs report we saw unemployment tick higher smidge there by about 1/10th of a percent coming in at one or 4.1% and ultimately wage growth a touch lower so what does this tell us about the economy right now we have Julie sue the United States acting labor secretary joining us here on Yahoo finance Julie great to see you here um first and foremost just want to get your readin on what we're seeing in this labor economy and where there are areas that the White House still needs to consider doing even more work another solid jobs report 206,000 jobs created last month bringing the total since President Biden's come into office to nearly 16 million the unemployment rate remains at historic lows it ticked up slightly to 4.1% but remember before this it was at or below 4% for the longest stretch since Neil Armstrong stepped foot on the moon uh we are looking at not just temporary um improvements to our economy but a national strategy that President Biden brings that has resulted in the most robust recovery uh from 2020 that could have been imagined uh if you recall on This Day in 2020 on the last under the last Administration the unemployment rate was nearly 12% um and uh there was no National strategy to address the economy or the global pandemic President Biden came in with a national strategy we've been implementing it and of course there's more work to do right we are not going to reverse Decades of underinvestment in our nation's workers in our nation's Industries in growing jobs overnight but we're on the right track we're making progress and we'll keep at it uh secretary what do you say to those um Americans that are going to see this report probably likely over the weekend and they're going to notice an uptick on the unemployment rate and job growth slowing down do they have reason to be concerned I don't think so I mean you know again it is a very small uptick and it remains historically low I think what um American workers are seeing is investments in their communities uh to the tune of $2 trillion doar under President Biden's investing in America agenda roads and bridges being fixed airports being modernized clean drinking water coming out of faucets highspeed reliable internet being delivered uh a commitment to addressing climate change all of these are happening in communities and what that's doing is creating good jobs and our promise is that every worker who wants a good job should be able to get one and when I travel the country in our good job summer tour um we're talking about the importance of a good job what that means to a family to a community and why the president is so committed to making sure that everybody can have one the reality is with wages even there's still so many in places here like here in New York where you can feel like you have a good job but the wage still might leave you in what's classified or considered a poverty level how are we seeing moderation and and in a better scenario for a lot of people out there how are we seeing wages continue to move higher and outpace inflation because that is a concern for many households yeah it's such a good point so um real wages have outpaced inflation under President Biden again that is not an accident that was not inevitable it's because the president understands that we both need to create a lot of jobs and we need to make sure they're good jobs good jobs meaning somebody can uh make a living wage support a family put a little bit of way for retirement as he always says so you can look your children in the eye tell them everything's going to be okay and mean it so the actual quality of the jobs that we're creating are very different we're focused on ensuring um that people have benefits so they can go to the doctor when they're sick that there's some real security and when I travel the country and see people entering a community college in order to get a uh a skill uh to do a manufacturing job that did not exist before or in an apprenticeship program to help build up their own Community I see that hope and security that only comes from a good job and we need to keep on doubling down on those Investments uh and that's why we need to keep up the work that we are doing secretary this uh Jaws report comes against a challenging period for the president a couple key moments coming up for him over the next few days a lot of Americans are concerned about uh the president's ability to continue in this role over the next few years should he win re-election you've worked close closely with the president are there concerns concerns well placed about his ability to do this job I I don't think those concerns are well placed at all I will say I was just with him earlier this week we announced the first Nationwide standard to protect workers from heat you know it's hot out here everybody knows it for workers heat is not just an inconvenience it's not just a discomfort it can be a workplace Hazard and nobody should have to be afraid that they're going to die on the job because it's too hot when we can do simple things like shade like rest like water and those those are things that are in the First National Standard that got done because the president said to me last year what are we doing to make sure that those workers are protected um you know you're asking what I'm concerned about I have the same concerns that the president has uh I want to make sure that workers get a fair Shake I want to make sure that we continue to combat the massive gap between CEO pay and Frontline worker pay where CEOs make in a week what workers cannot make working several years uh we want to bring down the cost of prescription drugs and uh relieve student loan debt so that people can look into the future with hope we fought for retirement security we're putting more money into workers Pockets just this past week a million workers got eligible for overtime pay because of this president's economic policies so I share his concerns that this economy needs to work better for working people needs to make sure that it leaves no one behind and that's the work that we are very focused on making sure that we reverse decades in which uh you know this was not the policy and so as president Biden has listened to workingclass families and and households and tried to do and put forth those efforts that you just ran down the list of if those same households are expressing concerned about the president's ability for another four years to do a very high demanding job what do you believe the talk would be and the calculus in that instance I mean again what I hear from uh American workers when I travel is they are grateful that they have a president who finally sees them who finally understands them a president that walked the pick a line the first time ever in history a president who supports their right to organize and we're seeing historic gains for working people higher wages benefits the right to join a union again those are fundamental our president is called Union Joe for a reason and he understands that when unions do well the middle class is stronger we build more Pathways for people to feel a sense of security that is what we are doing and I we know you I know from traveling that that is what people see um and again we have to continue to deliver and that is why we're on the right path but we're not finished yet in fact we're really just getting started Julie sue the United States acting labor secretary thanks for always making time for yaho finance we appreciate it have a good weekend thank you it's always great to be with you thank you |
X98HYx87nxA | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X98HYx87nxA | 2024-07-05 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Bitcoin: Why the fall will be a big test for the crypto | Bitcoin sliding after Mount goau begins repaying users inflaming fears that customers might quickly sell the coin to discuss what investors should do now we've got Lucy gazmararian who is the token Bay Capital founder and managing partner Lucy great to have you here thanks for joining us here on this topic I mean what should we anticipate that some of the holders or holders may do as a result of Mount Cox now so um Mount gos has obviously been tracked um you know pretty thoroughly in Bitcoin circles so it's an anticipated event um and there's also been a lot of trading of the claims prior to you know all of this being sorted out um on behalf of the creditors so um it's really up for debate as to whether N9 billion is going to sort of flow onto the markets in one go and it's actually highly unlikely so any selling is likely to be staggered over a period of time and actually there's a question as to whether there will be any sellers because as I say it's it's likely that many of the claims have already traded hands and people already are either going to hold Bitcoin for the longer term um or they're going to sell but it's unlikely to happen all at once so it should be managed and the market should be able to absorb any Supply coming through Lucy there's a I I see a lot of chatter on the on the various boards on on various crypto boards very focused on what happens with this presidential election let's just handicap this let's say President Biden does decide to drop out someone else swoops in and takes his place who's the better person for the cryptocurrency market what's interesting is there a lot more sort of pro crypto voices um in Congress in US politics and you know we're getting so many more cheerleaders and that's largely driven by this stand with crypto movement and the funding that they're actually getting from a coordinated attempt by all the big players in the crypto industry to really change the perception around crypto really get people rooting for the new technology and you know the infrastructure for a new generation of financial markets and for you know politicians to see it as such and actually see it as an enabler and a way for the American economy to sort of get ahead and grow and so I think they're having amazing success this year in doing so um there's a lot of funding coming through and there's a lot more voices and it's not just the funding but it's the education as well with all these crypto groups that are going to DC and really explaining and sitting down with lawmakers to set out what this technology really can offer American people coming into and even on the first half of this year the crypto Playbook was was quite simple it was ETF approvals and it was the having what does the second half Playbook look like for crypto so I think okay we've had a bit of a selloff uh recently I think with every wave that we have we've got new buyers that are unused to this volatility so it's not particularly nice experience to buy into the ETF in January be really thrilled with 30% or 50% gains and then be down 30% you know that takes them getting used to so we've got new buyers entering this Market um and trading over the summer is typically quieter right you've got the quieter trading months over the summer and Bitcoin is no exception particularly now that we have Bitcoin listed on a National Stock Exchange so there is going to be a degree of correlation there um the big question is what's Bitcoin going to do when everyone comes back to work in the fall and the markets start picking up again that's really when we can actually tell if Bitcoin is going to be in a deeper correction than is actually typical for most of the cycle and to to this point we are still seeing very typical moves in bitcoin's price if someone wanted to use this pullback Lucy as a buying opportunity what should their first stop be um so well it it changes every time they break below so it was 56 now people are saying 48 um listen I think a great investment advice although I cannot give investment advice um is to dollar cost average your way into the asset class you have to take a long-term view on bitcoin you have to look at the fundamentals if you're investing for six months or a year year that's going to be you know a pretty tricky trading strategy because the market goes through boom bus Cycles so the best thing to do with Bitcoin is dollar cost average in and hold it for the long term because we are likely to see another cycle down towards um the end of 2025 into 2026 as we get another cycle when these Cycles really arise out of this Bitcoin mining uh Bitcoin harving uh which happens every four years so I think as investors you should really take a view on bitcoin do you believe it's going to be a fundamental trading tool do you believe it's going to be the equivalent of the US dollar in a global digital economy do you think more emerging markets and governments are going to start stockpiling Bitcoin as a reserve asset you know take take a view on what you actually think the utility of Bitcoin is because there are many different narratives associated with Bitcoin and you know just buying it because you think it's going to go up um I would suggest having a longer term investment Horizon luy gazmararian who is the token Bay Capital founder and managing partner thank you so much |
J0di6LWRVHg | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0di6LWRVHg | 2024-07-05 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Gold is a 'safe-haven' play ahead of the 2024 election | [Music] interesting moves happening in the Commodities markets oil is trading near its highest since late April and on track for a fourth straight week of gains and gold is headed for back-to-back weekly gains Scott bow is the CEO of Prosper Trading Academy Scott good to see you here uh after July 4th talk to us about uh gold are the fireworks just beginning in that commodity you know it's all about the dollar and it's all about rates and the trajectory with the weak eco data that we've received over you know probably the last four to eight weeks the jobs number this morning as well the trajectory has now been that the FED is is more than likely cutting in September personally I think maybe they even need to consider July though that's off the table for now pretty much but the Eco data has been weak and gold has really followed you know the path of the dollar in an inverse relationship so uh to me when we see how the dollar has hovered around 105 or so over the last you know weeks or so to me it has not been because of dollar strength it's been because of other currency weakness so now that we're starting to see you know this Eco data really get softer here I really think that we're going to see a dollar that that probably challenges 104 sooner rather than later that's good for gold that definitely has has been some of the impetus a as we're seeing gold uh really trying to attack those all-time highs again so got Scott isn't this the most I would say a great place to to head your bets if you're concerned about the election is gold right now the ultimate Safe Haven play I don't know what the ultimate is but yes it is a safe haven play both from from the risk off standpoint and quite frankly from the dollar standpoint from from rates standpoint point I is there you know potential downside of course there is but I do think that gold is a great place to be here you know I if you look over the last year or so and you saw the amount that central banks around the world were piling into gold and buying it and storing it it's it's off the charts it's unbelievable so I really think that the downside potential as gold is a lot less than what the upside could be over the next six months or so yeah UBS had put that within their election watch 2024 as well saying that they think gold represents an interesting opportunity lifting their stance on the asset to most preferred uh given some of the concerns about geopolitical polarization inflation us fiscal deficit and whatnot you know Scott how high do you believe gold can go if we're talking new all-time highs what is the marker that you believe that it could move to and perhaps even through well that alltime high what we're about $80 away $70 we it's you know 2450 isure so you know if you look technically at the charts here there's a pattern that could really take us up to 2650 2700 I don't think we would get there that quickly though listen with with all of the geopolitical risk out there and you know the added risk around our election right now or added I should say uncertainty around our election here if we break those old highs here there there's really from a technical standpoint not a lot of resistance there we could see a pretty quick move up Scott how are you you know outside of golden Commodities how are you trading into the weekend what trades do you have on we have a president giving a very key interview at 8m has a couple campaign stops uh on Saturday and Sunday Monday you get the sense that something big could happen and you could see a lot more volatility in markets so I I have been long and continue to be long full disclosure here some downside put spreads in py in in the cu's I'm long some vixs upside calls obviously you know those haven't really worked over the last several weeks or months but you know something that that I always discuss with my clients and something that I always you know talk to people about is buying that insurance when it's cheap right we we all want to go out and price our homeowners our auto policy you know our our any insurance and we want to get a bargain we want to get it on sale protection is cheap right now in the marketplace whether you go out a month whether you're going out six months so what I'm telling people is you want to stay in the market you want to you know capture this grinding move to the upside fantastic buy the cheap protection and if you have to give back you know a little bit a half a percent a 1% whatever it is fine but there's this old trading adage of buy when you can and not when you have to and what that means is once something happens to the market once as as you just said you know that we're maybe getting set up here for something to happen it's too late the cost has has doubled tripled so buy that protection when you can so that is what how I am positioning the day trading in the marketplace is fantastic right now even though it's summer we're seeing some volatility In Pockets overall though downside protection way too cheap in my opinion Scott great to see you thanks so much for joining us here on this Friday appreciate it have a great weekend you here |
uEvyF3kUvUQ | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uEvyF3kUvUQ | 2024-07-05 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | What the Labour Party's big election win means for UK economy | Britain's labor party celebrate a landslide victory in the UK prime minister elections for more on what this means for markets let's get to yaho finances Akiko feta hey Akiko hey there bradia we heard from new prime minister Kier starmer just a short time ago outside Downing Street setting expectations for how quickly his government is likely to move on key issues now our country has voted decisively for change for National renewal and a return of politics to Public Service starmer saying that changing a country is not like flicking a switch this will take a while and that expectation certainly reflected in the markets with the footsie now pairing those initial gains we saw at the start of trade now we are seeing the pound firmly higher against the Dollar close to the high for the day as investors look for more political stability in the UK this was a sweeping victory for the labor party unseating the conservative majority for the first time in 14 years much of that the result of voter discontent over the politics of the ruling party but there is no question the economy played a key role here as well the UK already the worst performing economy among G7 nations with few expectations for a turnaround just a few months ago the oecd slashed the outlook for the UK growth to just 0 4% this year and 1% next year brexit the co hangover the Russian invasion of Ukraine all significant drivers for the Slowdown with voters also expressing anger over the lack of housing as well as the wait times for National Health Service among other issues the election Outlook already leading to a key upgrade from Goldman Sachs this morning the investment bank now saying it expects Labor's fiscal policy to provide in their words a modest boot to demand growth in the near term raising its forecast for growth by .1% over the next two years but Goldman also warning about potential risk stemming from increases in taxation and the impact that could have on incentives to invest and also labors push to reduce net migration Goldman says that could tighten labor Supply we did hear from outgoing prime minister Rishi sunak acknowledging the challenge was ahead for the UK although he did highlight the UK's return to 2% inflation in line with the ban and guys one more thing to point out here voter turn turnout was at 60% that's close to a record low and while the center left party is celebrating its victories today Nigel farage remember him the driving force behind brexit he also found some success here in the election his upstart right leaning reform UK taking a lot of the Tory votes with frage becoming a member of parliament on his eighth triy Brad all right Aiko thanks for keeping close tabs on those election outcomes for us appreciate it very much |
iXPS9niqZ18 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iXPS9niqZ18 | 2024-07-05 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Samsung stock leaps to 3-year high after profit surges 15-fold | tracking shares of Samsung this morning as well they're jumping to their highest level since January 2021 after the company posted its fastest pace of sales and profit growth in years thanks in large part to explosive demand forget this artificial intelligence take a look at shares they're up by about 3% here I mean larger question of and we've been trying to wrap our minds around this for a good bit of time and it seems like late this year we'll get the first true glimpse of how consumers gravitate towards some of this technology at their fingertips not just because of what Samsung is putting into the market but also because of what Apple has promised they're going to be bringing to the market um as long as you have a certain iPhone or higher yeah Samsung doesn't really get me excited I I look at these Samsung results and I'm like okay they're selling some cool expensive phones what is the read through to Apple and I think Apple's just having a recovery story in China I think it's playing out and that's my only read off of here off Samsung I mean the biggest thing with Samsung to remember though is the market share that they account for globally within the hands set devices I mean Apple has been trying to and and apple saw its highest kind of operating system marker at just shy barely shy of 20% globally last year Samsung for the Android operating system and and how well that is able to be deployed to so many other handsets Samsung is still able to hold its own but it's seen its market share waning as a result of Apple's ability to take on more market share globally focusing in on China focusing in on India and some of that intern interational growth more specifically here but it's it's going to come down to the price point right now that consumers are willing to actually buy into some of these new generative AI inducing or you know I don't even know what to call it at you know it's like so exciting I saw a video and looked real uh on X this morning it looked maybe the new iPad and it was somebody uh doing mathematical calculations on it and so they're writing 20 plus 20 and then all of a sudden the answer comes up why did I have this in like the mid 80s when like elementary school but my takeaway was I'm watching this in real time fair enough but I'm watching this in real time bullish Nvidia bullish Micron bullish Marvel I mean that's that's the whole Invidia tray right there in real time the ability to write on something and it just gets the answers come out I mean it's awesome |
FPaIxP2XUbg | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPaIxP2XUbg | 2024-07-05 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | June jobs outcome is what markets 'want to see,' strategist says | Futures are higher after the US economy added more jobs than expected in June here the data slightly tamping expectations for a raid cut in September over 71% of Traders are betting on a cut all in but that's down from before the reports release for more on this let's bring in Justin Bergen who is the Amer prize Financial vice president of equity research here Justin thanks so much for taking the time here this morning you know let's just start off with the data that we saw come through in the jobs report here want to get your read in on it and what this signals for the pathway for rate Cuts yeah absolutely thanks for having me this morning uh I think one of your previous guests made a comment on fireworks I hope you saw him yesterday because it wasn't this morning it was just a good report right I mean you're adding over 200,000 jobs uh in a month your uh Unemployment uh rate taking up slightly and your wage growth um that's 3.9% right where it should be so if you could put if you could put it in a what what could go right that out of that report it sure be what we got last month when there when there were quite a few fireworks uh Justin here good to see you uh I'm just going through uh the street reaction on this report when do you see or do you see an acceleration in the economy um maybe because of higher stock prices and and Tighter credit spreads that's some of the chatter that's uh coming into my box right now yep so actually um GDP is slowing right so if you look at where we were last year our consensus forecast this year is for 2.1% growth that's down from three and a half but if you if you look back at some of the pr uh previous periods you go to 2018 2019 when you had similar 2% GDP growth and then you had wage or uh unemployment that was above where it is today you had job growth below where it is today and consumer spending was still strong so to have a 2% uh GDP growth rate for the economy that's that's a good place to be in why is the unemployment rate going up but you have you the FED wants jobs job growth to slow plain and simple it's not great you have some of the low-end consumers that are being stressed but you do have you can't unemployment rate for the last 50 years has been the average is well over four and a half percent so to be at this you know below 4% for too long it's very very very hard to to have that type of wage growth what what are the other characteristics then of normalization if we're getting back to trend on markers such as the unemployment rate yep so I think if you look at consumer spending that's coming back down you have the savings rate that is coming back down and I think if you kind of focus and shift at the earnings growth you have 11% earnings growth uh estimates for this year that's fantastic right I mean Q2 you're looking at 8.8% growth that's that's excellent growth for corporate profits and you look at the profit margin that's a 12% expectation for Q2 that's actually up quarter over quarter is this report bullish or bearish for stocks pardon is this report bullish or bearish for stocks I think it's bullish absolutely bullish I think if you look at that's that's what uh economists want to see is this slowing gradual slowing of the economy you have a job market that's not imploding because consumer spending still continues to be strong corporate profits are strong that that's why the market keeps hitting highs and if you have this um 10year coming down from 450 where it is now 430 428 that that's what they want lower rates is good for the economy |
sCMzV3E0WJE | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sCMzV3E0WJE | 2024-07-05 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Biden pressured by major donors to end reelection campaign | Biden facing pressures from democratic donors as he faces a key stage in his reelection campaign yaho finances senior columnist Rick Newman joins us here to discuss ahead of what's going to be a big weekend for Biden here Rick lay it out for us well the latest news uh is that some uh major Democratic donors uh are saying they are not going to donate any more money until Biden steps aside Abigail Disney one of those people and some of these donors are uh setting up separate funding mechanisms for somebody other than Joe Biden they're they're not necessarily picking a candidate they're just saying Biden needs to step aside and they're putting their money behind that Abigail Disney's one of them Mike noats the crypto billionaire another one uh Reed Hastings is another uh who are behind this this just feels like a sinking ship guys um you know it's one little development after another and uh we're we're we're now getting to the point where Democrats are at war with themselves uh and that is about as bad a scenario as you can have going into the final months of a presidential election so uh Biden still saying I'm in it to win it uh he's going to do this interview today with George Stephanopoulos of ABC I mean like the whole point of this interview is for Biden to take some tough questioning and be able to demonstrate that he's up to it that he can explain away his terrible debate performance but uh I got to tell you guys it feels like the air is coming out of the Biden campaign Rick uh 206,000 jobs created last month is this is this jobs report a good thing for Biden or at this point uh voters can care less they just want to see him put some sentences together job creation under Biden has been terrific I mean Biden says all the time we've had the most jobs created during my Administration in the history of the country which is true and it doesn't matter I mean he gets no credit for that from uh from voters uh people care way more about inflation at this point inflation has been coming down but Biden is losing the narrative here I mean when uh you know he's he's now on the defensive constantly about his age I think I saw another poll that said almost 80% of Americans now think Biden is too old to run and he's only a couple years older than Trump but uh people don't think that Trump is too too old to run so uh the jobs report Biden will be talking about it for sure but I it's just not the thing that voters are paying attention to right now is there anybody else right now who Democrats are looking at and ultimately has enough of an economic standing in order to signal to voters out there who are going to be thinking about issues like inflation going to be thinking about issues like the broader employment trajectory right now that could ultimately have that candidate kind of come out on top in any scenario well if Biden says he's not running uh the immediate front runner for the candidacy is KLA Harris it would be hers to lose just by virtue of the fact that she's the vice president and her name is on the campaign plus uh she would easily be able to uh use all the money that the uh Biden Harris campaign uh has raised so it would be hers to lose and I think my way of thinking about it is um she would she would uh basically take the handoff of a pretty good economy and if she played it right she would she would not have the baggage of inflation so I mean Republicans have called it Biden flation they don't call it Harris flation um so she would be able to say hey uh we're going to have a fresh start here um you know and by the way don't blame me for inflation the thing that bothers voters the most so she would get a fresh start whether she would you know effectively capitalize on that I have no idea I don't think anybody knows but that's the way I would see it developing y financing columnist brick Newman we'll talk to you soon appreciate it by guys |
kZY-2zxKnvg | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZY-2zxKnvg | 2024-07-05 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Stocks mixed coming off of June jobs growth print | as of right now you can see the Dow Jones Industrial Average beginning the day flat just barely to the downside here we've seen some hyper waffling out of the gate and even coming into the start of today's activity you like that one I love when you say hyper waffling can I just can I do this I don't want to be a prop this time I just want to like touch that I haven't been to touchcreen in a while NASDAQ I think that is the main focus point today folks uh what is leading stocks like apple and Nvidia do after this report which really I think strongly suggests of a rate cut in September theoretically Apple Fang stocks Nvidia they should do well with that type of backdrop let's take a look at some of those stocks too if you hit that heat map uh Buton go for it I got you I haven't do I haven't done this in a while ibody want me to let's take I mean look we're knocking rust off here and we're doing quite well let's take a look at the consumer discretionary we've got 12 or 11 sectors pulled up on your screen here for you folks consumer discretionary lead in the pack as of right now let's take a look at that year- to-day chart up by about 5 a half% and of course as we're taking a look at some of the other red spots here unfortunately you've got energy pulling up the Caboose you mentioned some tech stocks M I know you like Tech STS let's give you some tech stocks here take a look no further than Nvidia I'm sure it was a talk of the barbecue for a lot of people yesterday they're just trying to figure out okay what is this AI trade does it still have legs here riveting up 157% year to date yeah good stuff all right Jared uh let's get over to uh really uh you are the true Master of the touchcreen where I'm just here I don't know Mark well thank you let me just conjure this up here and we got we'll get the sector action behind me I like how you were looking at xly consumer discretionary has been the story of the wheel let me just put a 4-day uh look at the on our sector heat map you can see xly is the leader up 3.2% xlk that's Tech uh close second behind but uh you were just looking at that year-to dat chart it is now broken through the upper end of its range you take a look at a 5ye it is still not eclipsing its prior year 2021 highs uh but looks like it's on its way so uh what are the sub the biggest stocks in there well guess what in consumer discretionary it is Tesla and also Amazon and Tesla here this is a 4-day look Tesla up 25.8% Amazon up 3% so Tesla really doing a lot of the heavy lifting this is a 5-year chart and one of the things that stands out Tesla is now just breaking out of this very long trend line that goes all the way back to its record highs in 2021 so this is a technical achievement for it doesn't mean that it's going to race higher right away but this this is a first step to a trend change around Which is higher highs and higher lows so now we want to see a higher low as uh Tesla eventually comes back let's put this to an intraday view I want to jump over to our meme stocks because I was tracking cost on uh on Wednesday and that stock was up over 100% uh just an incredible run let me put our equal we here and we can see cost is in the number one spot it is up 44% just over 40% now fluctuating pretty wildly here's a 5-year look what stands out is this this little uh jump here which is actually a pretty big jump nothing near the jump we saw in 2021 nevertheless I want to put this in context I'll put a 5-day look you can see there's the stock up 29% in 5 days doing what meme stocks do best confounding the fundamental analysis I would say |
MDKsT2m4Gs4 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MDKsT2m4Gs4 | 2024-07-05 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Bitcoin plunges as Mt. Gox begins to repay customers | the Bitcoin plunge collapsed exchange Mount Gau I think I said that right is beginning to reportedly pay back the nearly $9 billion in Bitcoin and bit Bitcoin cash it owes to customers from its bankruptcy in 2014 stoking fresh investor fears that the customers might quickly sell the coins y finances Jared blicker has more on this Jared Brian I'm guessing you're not a mon Go's customer but good news for them over the next 60 to 90 days they're going to get repaid this was uh a bankruptcy that happened well it was actually a theft a heist that led to a bankruptcy about 10 years ago this was a japanese-based exchange they lost over 700,000 uh coins Bitcoins specifically and now the trustee is set to return about 140,000 to the market now what you're seeing behind me this is just one day's price action uh a lot of dark right on your screen Bitcoin down 4% ethereum down 6% here's what happened over the last 4 days Bitcoin is down 12.78% and I've been showing this year- to-day chart saying that anything that happens between these two lines here this was a price consolidation Channel just sideways movement uh it doesn't matter now that we broke in down below well that does matter as you might know we uh actually broke below uh this support level one time that was a false breakdown is it another false breakdown looking on the the the length that price has traveled right now it doesn't look like it but I guess that is a possibility uh you just need another day's price action to really confirm this so we'll get that over the weekend but uh what is this mean for the rest of the uh crypto Enterprise the the rest of the crypto Universe well a lot of times Bitcoin is a leader here so we're also seeing ethereum get down to the bottom of its support range but you'll notice it hasn't breached it just yet kind of supports the idea that if Bitcoin were to recover very quickly you could say okay that's another false break down but again that's not my base case uh before we go I do want to check out crypto stocks this morning I'm going to put on some uh early quotes here and you can see lots of downside action Hut trading 7 half% to the downside Master strategy down 7% so just a lot of negative uh Vibes in the crypto sphere today all right well at least we have the positivity from Jared blicky always Jared thanks so much appreciate it |
xZKcCK0H37Q | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xZKcCK0H37Q | 2024-07-05 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Nvidia stock downgraded to Neutral by New Street Research. Here's why. | shares of Nvidia slightly in the red the company has been bouncing back this week after a volatile period Nvidia did get hit with a downgrade this morning from New Street research analysts at the firm saying they see limited further upside and are downgrading the stock from buy to neutral well BR everybody is trying to be a hero on Nvidia all I know is I go back to a recent JP Morgan story and it is very uh report is very simple demand continues to outstrip supply for NVIDIA chips and as long as that continues to happen there might be some volatility in the name how do you dump this stock I me they're a beast they're on on a a path to potentially 10 trillion doll market cap you know it's not a stock particularly that's just one that you talk about where it's just okay yeah just trade this name no it's it is an investment decision that has now been regarded as such for a long-term kind of hold type of mindset it's not something that you're trying to day trade at this juncture even though it got a little bit more affordable after this the uh stock split that took place in a a couple weeks back last thing you want to hear so you call up your money manager uh and they tell you hey I hope you had a great July 4th yeah I'm going to be lightning the load on Nvidia who the hell wants to hear that I mean that is the great way to lose your job and lose client money I mean that is it's tough to stal a stock that everybody is rightfully very bearish on for strong fundamental reasons I mean the AI chip roll out this is not late 90s. stuff with companies not Mak making any money this is real stuff real technology and this company continues to be uh The Leader by by years I mean by years they're leading other companies well the interesting kind of annexation or at least Doom bubble analogy that Nvidia has been drawn to time and time again now is actually Cisco and if you go back and take a look at their stock chart one of the things that you'll see that is quite similar here is this hockey stick type runup during the uh era and then it had to grow into its valuation now of course course it declined precipitously in the aftermath of that bubble bursting but then eventually over years was able to grow into that valuation because people could see the applications and the use cases for the technology that they were bringing to the market it's the same thing with Nvidia here we just don't have a million chip data center right now because it's not built up yet and so that's perhaps the next part of this generative AI trade when we talk about pix and shovels it might literally be pix and shovels building up some of these data centers pix and shovels putting some of the electricity in the ground or overhead or what however you're building that grid out in order to make sure those data centers have the necessary utility and power that they need no right on Brad and you know I think you have to be thinking about it's not just the Nvidia trade it's the whole ecosystem I had a great conversation on my podcast opening bid cheap plug for myself there uh with Brook DNE a portfolio manager of Goldman Sachs Asset Management you know his I think view was sure you can continue to own Nvidia but think about some of the companies that are trying to compete with the likes and video over the next 5 to 10 years it's a Marvell it's a K it's a micron none of these companies are really going to take material market share from Nvidia today but as long as they could sell that Sizzle to investors those stocks might rise along with Nvidia I listen to your podcast every time I appreciate that I mean I sit right next to so you don't download it you don't download it I mean look I was in the pilot episode and then I never got invited back I'm waiting to come back you can come back anytime you want okay done deal tomorrow yeah sounds great yeah |
BzqqBETvkpw | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BzqqBETvkpw | 2024-07-05 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | June jobs data could factor in to a July rate cut: Economist | joining us now to break down this latest June jobs number we've got Joe brellis who is the RSM Chief Economist good friend of the show Joe great to have you here on set you were actually talking ahead of when we went live about this interesting Dynamic about how if we see the job Sprint the non-farm payrolls come in higher than expected then we might have actually seen this exact reaction in unemployment rate as well that's right so look guys this is what full employment looks like this is what you want to see this is a very good number now you know the the is we had up just before the the number was released you know um immigration's played a big role in not just growth of the economy but growth in the labor market uh Goldman put out that report and they were right about that it slowed since March and at one point we're going to see these numbers come in a little bit lower last year J pal was talking about how he thought the break even in overall monthly unemployment gains was somewhere between 50 and 100 now that was because we had that strong growth in labor Supply that's now slowing so my sense is it's probably somewhere between 150 and 200 today nevertheless this is another good absolutely Rock Solid labor report there's not much to complain about here moreover if you're a market player and you see those um downward revisions of 111,000 over the past couple months hey guys that's fed positive well isn't this the perfect report for JP palal so you've had inflation start to decelerate you have down revisions you don't have a too hot Rapport that has to put a September rate cut on on Deck here no it does as a matter of fact look guys a policy rate in a range between 5.25 and 5.5% is no longer appropriate for an economy that has an inflation rate of 2.6% taken out to three decimals is 2563 Right moreover growth is cooling hiring is cooling the economy is normalizing we're moving back to that pre-pandemic Trend you know the large and persistent shocks that we've all lived through the past couple years I think we often UND undercount that or really underestimate just what it's done to the economy this is unambiguous good news here guys this is what you want to see that firework show we all watched last night they should rerun it again after this report I see this report and this is not a stock recommendation I'm thinking if I'm if I'm trading this is a buy Nvidia Apple type of Market not too uh not too H to job support you have lower interest rates I mean why not just stick with what's working in Tech I mean well you want to be able to mute at least one part of the kind of investment calculus and so far muted higher for longer has meant the fed's going to be muted at least for this intern period which has led to that exact trade that you're talking about or at least solidified it I'm taking a look at the CM fed watch probability here and tabbing over to that month that you were just mentioning s and uh Joe you were discussing as well here we actually saw a slight tick lower just barely here but I mean the probability is still largely pointing towards a rate cut they're I'm right I'm right I'm right that's right just close close that close that down the the the deceleration in our a earnings to 0.3% of the month 3.9% year-over-year along with those downward revisions that tells me we can take off the table any notion of of wage wage inflation really being on the table guys I'm more comfortable with the FED actually hinting in July they were going to go in September if I'm a Fed member I'm actually thinking about July they want to get out in front of what's going to be a decelerating job market so Joe this report might be good um for markets Tech investors what but is it good for the president now he's had a uh rough week and he may have a rough few more days but you have a decelerating job market and the unemployment rate is going to go up on the weekend papers you're going to see unemployment rate is on an uptrend job market slowing I mean this is not good for him so my sense is is that the US presidential election right now is about things other than the US economy US economy is going to be a second order Story Probably through through November 5th look you know headlines are headlines the American people know 4% unemployment that's really good that means I can get a job my wages are going up and look guys but they don't feel good so the economy has a funny way of trumping ideology and politics right at a certain point that increase in wages above inflation does tend to take hold moreover at the end of the day what do we all see we see them out spending we see them out traveling I mean I got to go to the airport tomorrow morning we're leaving extra early because over at Loria it's going to be a royal mess because people are out spending hard-earned money I mean I know I'm I spent $7 in a bag of cauliflower chips yesterday and the bag was smaller I that's what people are seeing I mean and they're they're concerned but anyway I mean your point is well taken your point is well taken you also cook that Tom Hawk steak that you sent me a photo off cery or something so I mean at the end of the day and I was taking a look at one of the notes that was out from Black Rock as they were talking about continued disinflation and allowing maintenance Cuts here you know how do how do you look at disinflation as we're seeing it right now uh and what that means for some of the positive developments that we would need to see towards the back half and continuing in the back half of this year to set forth a a rate cut pathway even more in 2025 right so the the FED has cons been really consistent on this they don't need to see disinflation or inflation get to the Target of 2% on the Topline pce our forecast says we're going to be at 2.3% by the end of the year look guys we're within shouting distance of it now if you want to get out and get in front of this and not have the FED be behind the curve they need to begin shaping expectations I think of that rate cut in September that's been our call for a long time we've got 25 on the table in September and again in December again but I'm comfortable even with them considering July at this point because I do think the growth in the economy or the economy is just normalizing I want to be clear here guys this isn't a crack in the job market it's not the economy foundation's cracking we're moving back to Trend you know when I see 206 and I think they probably overestimated by 20 to 40 hey guys that's sustainable this is very good stuff do you see a catalyst in place to drive a re acceleration in these jobs numbers no I just don't see that right you know job openings are going to move up and down every month but my sense here is is that firms have retained labor for a very long period of time demand's now cooling they're not going to continue to hoard labor like they have been so we expect unemployment we our forecast was 4.2% by the end of the year that's looking pretty good here on July 5th yeah 8m where are you going to be tonight Joe I'm going to be watching the President talk tonight like I think we all should get out there and register to vote it's important Joe Bellis always good to see you RSM Chief Economist we'll talk to you soon have a good weekend |
QatBMvNwL7w | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QatBMvNwL7w | 2024-07-05 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Healthcare sector adds 49,000 new positions in June | Healthcare sector added 49,000 jobs in June down from the 68,000 healthcare jobs added in May y find senior Healthcare reporter anelie kamani has been digging into the numbers anelie that's right Brian we know that of course the healthc care jobs have been really adding at a at a quite a clip in the last several months but now we're seeing this downturn in the monthly average uh 64,000 we saw 22,000 jobs added in the health uh ambulatory healthcare services and 22,000 at hospitals and those have been the key areas of jobs added for the last several months I've been looking into what has been happening in the last year we saw those blowout numbers month over month for the last uh year since April really of last year and what is the story behind the story is really that we've seen a a high turnover within the sector and that's been one of the drivers of these job gains things like burnout misalign demand and Supply between where jobs are and where jobs are being applied as well as payer squeeze from the insurers you know paying less and causing uh a little bit of a a squeeze there for those hospitals and those Health Care Systems meanwhile costs are rising for those very same facilities with these burnouts so it's really just a bad cycle right now for the healthc care sector and this could be why we see a little bit of fluctuation we do know that there are also shifts in where doctors and health clinicians are going uh where it goes to maybe tella health or other areas where there is better work life balance so those are all playing a role in what we see with these numbers month over month and we did see a bit of a dip this month after really some record numbers if you take a look at sort of the history over it but definitely keep an eye on on how this pans out for the rest of the year all right anelie thank you so much keeping close tabs on the healthcare sector |
vyjyfAHv-Q4 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vyjyfAHv-Q4 | 2024-07-05 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | US adds 206,000 jobs in June, unemployment rises to 4.1% | we are 5 Seconds Away from getting that jobs report and as we're keeping close eye on the Futures they are positive going into it let's take a look at the numbers that are crossing now we've got 206,000 jobs that were added versus the 190,000 jobs expected so that better than expected here the unemployment rate ticks higher to 4.1% average hourly earnings month over month came in at 3/10 of a percent and you also saw the year-over-year figure for average hourly earnings move to 3.9% ultimately unchain changed from what we had seen prior as of right now taking a look at the Futures we're seeing much of the same that we were just seeing a moment ago where much of the Futures activity is still leaning positive at this juncture so we'll see exactly what this does to the CME fed watch probability as well speaking of government government jobs up 70,000 really want to highlight one thing here real quick before we get to our jar blicker on markets downward revisions to April by 57,000 downward revision to May by 54,000 and you have to think what does this mean in the context of inflation initially uh this report may suggest uh perhaps we are back on the table for that se September rake cup let's get over Jared who's watching some of these early Market moves very uh interesting report here Jared yeah I'm looking at the two-year treasury note Futures and so these move inversely to yield and what we're seeing is a spike higher here on the report so that means yields are dropping uh not not too many worries about that higher for longer that was a two-year these are 10-year note Futures up 30 basis points so similar boat there and let's talk uh see what's going on in the stock futures you can see S&P futures have rallied to their prior uh overnight High which happened about the European uh open but we're only talking about 13 basis points this is not a big move by any stretch and in fact we usually see a little bit of a fake out on these days so we might end up going the opposite direction uh once the market actually opens here are Dow futures you can see similar chart but didn't quite make it up to their uh prior High here and then let's check out what's going on with gold old we can see a little bit of a jump higher maybe some concerns about inflation uh didn't really see too hot a wage growth number but that's one factor that happens or that one of the things we see sometimes when we see gold Futures heading higher here and then here copper Futures basically unchanged do want to check out what's going out with Bitcoin because sometimes that does have a little bit of a delayed reaction not seeing any uh fireworks just yet but we'll keep an eye on that and then we got to check out what's going on in the sector action in stocks and the background color is what happened on Friday but you can see XL y there that is the number one pre-market Gainer up about 41 basis points or 410 of a percent after closing up 6/10 of a percent on Friday so we got kind of a mixed board energy trading to the downside so is utilities but not by a large margin and then some of the other gainers I should note real estate Staples and financials Tech just a little bit in the green there guys |
oxYN_Aj7Tx4 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oxYN_Aj7Tx4 | 2024-07-05 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Stock market today: Tech giants lead S&P 500, Nasdaq to more records | t Domination. I'm Josh Lipton, alongside Jared Blikre, live from our NYC headquarters. We're giving you the ultimate investing playbook to help tune out the noise and make the right moves for your money. >> And here is your headline blitz getting you up to speed. One hour before the closing bell rings on Wall Street. >> This is another good, absolutely rock solid labor report. There's not much to complain about here. Moreover, if you're a market player and you see those downward revisions of 111,000 over the past couple of months, hey guys, that's fed positive. >> The trajectory with the weak eco data that we've received over, you know, probably the last 4 to 8 weeks, the jobs number this morning as well. The trajectory has now been that the fed is more than likely cutting in September. Personally I think maybe they even need to consider July though that's off the table for now. Pretty much. >> Any selling is likely to be staggered over a period of time and actually there's a question as to whether there will be any sellers because, as I say, it's likely that many of the claims have already traded hands and people already are either going to hold Bitcoin for the longer term, or they're going to sell. But it's unlikely to happen all at once. So it should be managed and the market should be able to absorb any supply coming throug. >> And we got under one hour to go. Let's take a look at where we stand today. You can see a lot of green. Well not in the small caps but the Nasdaq leading the way here up 83 basis points 8/10 of 1. We want to check out the price action for four days. That's how many days we have in this week Nasdaq up nicely 3.4. And we know the Nasdaq and the Dow haven't always been complimentary. But we see the Dow up 6/10 of a percent. And we've got the S&P 500 somewhere in between. I want to fast forward to the bond market right now where we are seeing the ten year yield down about eight basis points. So that was in reaction to the report we got this morning. This was 8:30 a.m. right there. And we did see stocks move a little bit. But this has not been a huge day. This is again the S&P 500. But I do want to move on to the VIX real quick. Well it looks like it disappeared. So let's just skip over to some heat maps where we have communication services leading the way up 1.7. Then we got staples health care consumer discretionary. All of those outperforming. And you take a look at the Nasdaq 100. What a nice picture. Who needs Nvidia right. It's down 1. But we got some other action in the Mega-caps meta up 5. Apple up more than one and a half. Alphabet up 2.5. The list goes on. So Josh let's break it down all right Jared thank you. >> The June jobs report showing another sign of the U.S. job market continuing to cool the unemployment rate, unexpectedly rising to the highest reading almost three years. While June's job additions saw a slight decline from May PNC Financial Services Group chief economist Gus Foshay joining us now to discuss Gus. It's always good to see you. So you look at this report, Gus, headline payroll growth of 206,000. We did see Gus downward revisions mentioned an unemployment rate ticking up to 4.1. So some some puts and takes here. But Gus, break it down for us. How did you read this report? >> I read this report as being very positive. The job market continues to improve, but the pace of job growth is slowing towards a more sustainable pace. Over the longer run. We saw slower wage growth, which is reducing inflationary pressures from the labor market. But at the same time, wages are increasing more quickly than inflation. So household incomes are going up and the economy should continue to expand. So I think if you're at the fed this is what you want to see. Slower job growth a little bit higher unemployment rate, slower wage growth. And that would support cuts in the fed funds rate sometime later this year. >> And do you think with a higher unemployment rate there's something called the sum rule. And we don't need to get into the nitty gritty. But you think if the unemployment rate kind of holds here around 4.1 4.2, that actually gives the fed a lot of cover to lower interest rates as it has been telegraphing. It wants to do. >> That's right. I mean, it's an indication that there is a bit more slack in the labor market. What they don't want to do is wait too long to cut, because that increases the likelihood that we get a recession, not necessarily this year, but let's say in mid 2025, I think they do want to cut because they're concerned that monetary policy is weighing on the economy. So this type of jobs report gives them the ability to do that. They can say, look, inflation is slowing. The labor market is cooling a bit. Therefore we should be cutting rates sometime later this year. >> And Gus, when would you be looking for in terms of later this year? Are you in the September camp? >> I'm more in the November camp because I think they'd like to get past the election. I think if they cut in September, then that opens them up to political criticism. So I think November looks more likely and I don't think it makes a big deal for the economy one way or the other. That being said, if we do see the job growth is slowing a little more than we're expecting, then we might get that September cut. But I think, you know, right now, November, but September is still in play. >> You know, time flies by here in a week. We got the big bank earnings. Just wondering, you see anything in the data here that maybe we should be concerned about the consumer is the consumer is still strong. >> I think the consumer is still holding up. As I said, real incomes continue to rise. When we look at things like debt service ratio, those are still pretty low. Obviously, travel has been incredibly strong this summer and so there's no indication to me that there are significant problems for the consumer. I think there are some low income consumers who are a little bit stretched, but we also have for high income consumers, we have rising stock prices, rising household wealth. That's supporting spending. And we have seen the savings rate tick up a little bit, which is what consumers are going to need to do over the longer run, save a little bit more. So I think that there's still overall in good shape, perhaps with a little bit of concern for lower income consumers in particular, >> Gus. And next week of course, CPI is on deck. I'm curious, what are you looking for there, Gus? And how important is that? Is that print to the fed, >> so 0.1% on the overall CPI. We did see gasoline prices fall from May to June, particularly given that seasonally we would expect them to increase. We expect to see the core at 0.2% increase from from May to June. Again, that's good news from the Fed's perspective. After some less progress in slowing in inflation in early 2024, we're starting to see inflation slow a bit more. That being said, it takes more than 1 or 2 months for the fed to be convinced that inflation is slowing. But I think we will get better numbers on inflation over the next couple of months, and then that supports a rate cut later this year sometime. >> Gus, always good to have you on the show. Thank you for joining us. >> Thank you. >> And we are just getting started here on market domination. Coming up more meme mania. Shares of Koss surging this morning by 26. We'll discuss the hype behind the meme stock. Plus Nvidia gets a rare downgrade. We'll tell you why the analyst behind that call sees near-term risks ahead. And later, the summer box office is playing catch up after a rough start to the year. Studios are betting on a large slate of mid-range sequels and prequels, but it may not be enough to keep moviegoers back in theaters. All that and more when market domination returns. >> Let us get now to our call of the day. New Street research downgrades Nvidia to neutral. The analyst citing limited further upside for the tech giant going forward. And, Josh, we were just talking about this real quickly over the break. And, this is some bad news to drop on a Friday. You know, but yes, we're talking about it, when we think about this, you know, the run that Nvidia has had, there are a lot of valuation calls you could make. It's gone up 150. Why not stop here? So what's next? I think you know, the outlook beyond 2025. It requires a bit of faith, but, that's what's kind of gotten the stock here. >> Yeah. I mean, really, it sounds like, you know, so this analyst says he downgraded to neutral, says looking that Nvidia is getting fully valued for the base case. Says upside will only materialize in a bull case in which the outlook beyond 2025, he says, increases materially. And we do not have the conviction on that scenario playing out yet, goes on to say, Jared, the quality of the franchise, he tells his clients it's intact, sounds like it's a valuation call as an issue here. >> Well, if we go to a chart, let me just point out what happened last year. There was five or maybe even six months when Nvidia basically did nothing and so this is a two year chart on the Wi-Fi interactive. It's gone up so far from then that it's hard to see, and probably hard to remember because it's gone up most of this year. But we had a good five months or so, and then it just kind of petered off. It didn't really get started again until the beginning of the year. So you know, maybe it takes a prolonged, not not necessarily even correction in price, but maybe in time to get people interested in again. But you know, Nvidia, that's what it's done. It's a textbook rally where, you know, you consolidate, you move to the next level and then you start all over again. >> That's it. All right. We're getting another voice on on all things Nvidia all things markets here with more on Nvidia and the markets is Yahoo Finance's very own Myles Udland. I didn't know you were allowed to downgrade Nvidia. Is that only on Friday afternoons. >> Well you're only allowed fourth only allowed to do it on Friday afternoons after July 4th. Otherwise you know too many people might see the call. But no I thought the point was Jared was just making on the technicals for Nvidia at this point in the proceedings. Really feels like the germane one, because when it comes to the fundamental case, you know, what more is there to say? It is trading at a very expensive well, okay. An optically expensive valuation let's say. Right. You know, 2027 numbers. It actually looks reasonable. All this kind of stuff that analysts will will go through. But the stock chart itself and this is the challenge I think for a lot of, you know, portfolio managers who oftentimes are more fundamentally biased is if you look at the chart for a lot of the names, you know, metas in this group that have just had these huge runs, you need to take a look around and ask yourself, like, not only where is the next bid, but what is constructive, you know, as technical analysts would say about this setup. Right? Like, why has this stock worth this ot of time, and therefore there's going to be a large incremental base of new buyers. And the Nvidia even the line chart here shows very clearly that while, you know there's some shades of gray, there, the base between the highs and 21 to what we saw in 2023, there's a lot of folks there for two years made no money in Nvidia. And then you have the AI trade come along and all of a sudden you've got this, you know, pop up several hundred percentage points. But you know Jared, it feels like you mean you taught me years ago. You can correct through price or time. And it feels like Nvidia at a minimum needs some time in this low 100 and 20s after the split. >> Yeah, it makes sense, you know, the earnings catalyst seems like Nvidia gets 1 or 2 big pops a year. So maybe it's already had its share. But you know, the elephant in the room is that Nvidia is the elephant in the room, there's the concentration we're seeing in the market here has never been higher. You go back to the great Depression. So we are in uncharted territory. And it's logical to think, well, what happens if this one stock falters? Well today Nvidia is in the red and you got five other mega-caps in the green. So it's all right. But I mean what if they falter. I think it's a legitimate argument. And it's a concern. But the market can you know it can stay concentrated for far longer than you or I can remain solvent. >> Yeah. Well, you know that last point I'm peaking your screen here, the Wi-Fi interactive, of the names that are, you know, moving the market higher today overall. And, you know, I just put a story up on Yahoo Finance. Nothing else to do in this office. No meetings, no nothing. Right. So let's do some work. All the all the stocks leading the proceedings today, and you put something in our slack about the stocks making intraday record highs pretty much every stock, you would think, with the exception of Nvidia. But it feels like from a portfolio management perspective investors are looking around right now and saying man I'm getting killed right now. I'm getting trounced by the benchmark. I can't keep pace with the S&P 500. We've seen periods like this over time. Early 2020 was actually one of them. We saw a lot of this in 2021 where investors, you know, portfolio managers will just kind of, you know, take their medicine and say, I guess I need to own more meta. I guess it's I'm not going to get in trouble. I'm not going to get in trouble. Right. Owning more Amazon, owning more, Google owning more. Apple. You know, a name that's been a laggard this year. And a lot of rules that investors are beholden to will prevent them from certain concentrations. They can't keep pace with the S&P because they can't even own these stocks in the right percentages, etc, etc. but right now, I think a lot of folks are at the halfway point. The S&P was up 15. They might have been up a lot less than that. And they're figuring, how can I make up the difference here? And you're not. Again, you're not going to get in trouble going into a meeting saying we have initiated overweight on meta. Everybody loves the story right now. Stock's up 5% on no news. >> Yeah. How much do you think Miles two is. Is it. You have a day like today where you got the big jobs report. And it seemed to just confirm the same story, the same narrative we've been telling for a while. It's cooling. It's not crashing, but it's cooling. Yeah. Inflation is moderating. Maybe gives Jay Powell some cover to cut. Not July, but fall. It's the same narrative. So maybe I'll just stick with what's been working. Absolutely. >> Stick with it. Stick with what's defensible. And I think the thing that bears are probably excited about in this environment is it's like, let's just run it back with the same story from last time. These are the hyperscalers. These are going to be the winners in AI lower rates. That means good for speculative tech. That means more startups. That means more people buying services from Amazon, etc, etc. all on down the chain. And like, do you really want to be buying these stocks at record highs because you hope there's going to be a VC investment cycle, which means they have to buy more chips. They need more services. I'm not sure. Like I'm not sure that's the logic, but I see the tape today and I don't really know what else. Right. You're thinking there other than this worked. Let's run it back. And you know, maybe this is my new idea today, but look, no one's here, so maybe none of this really matters, right? Like, no, it's also Friday, July 5th and earnings season is about to start. And you've got corporate buybacks kind of slowing down here because the calendar I mean maybe none of this really matters. But it does feel like we are grasping at reasons to stay constructive. Or strategists are grasping at reasons to stay constructive in a market that is really just about AI. Any way you cut it, cost is up 32, Newegg is up 22. Keith Skillz's the only other story in the market that's what's interesting is this kind of has echoes of 2021 when it feels I mean, Jared, it's crazy like, this feels so much like 2021, and maybe it resolves in a different direction. All the details feel a little bit different, but like the vibe out there in general, you know, I log on to my fidelity. I'm like, I'm an idiot for not owning this stuff. That's 2021. That's 2021 stuff. All right Myles thank you. >> As always. It's stocks set for new all time highs on as investors have embraced the prospect that the June jobs report will push the Federal Reserve closer to a rate cut. For more on what this means and for what this means for your portfolio, let's welcome in John Sophus Oppenheimer, chief investment strategist John, thank you for joining us here today. We've been waxing poetic about Fridays and jobs and everything else. Just what's your what's your first blush take on the jobs report. This morning, >> came in fine as far as I'm concerned. >> When we looked at it. You know, if it's anything that it states very clearly to us is jobs remains resilient, even though we have seen slowing off the higher numbers that we used to get. The that's not that that has to be expected. The fed has raised 11 times, and has been on pause for eight times now since March of 22nd through today. When you look at it, essentially the fed has done the job. They have a little bit further to go. 2% target on inflation remains somewhat elusive. But in the meantime they have yet to push the economy into a recession. That resilience shows in business. It shows even in the consumer, and it certainly shows up in the job postings. So the economy appears to be larger than the negative. PitchBook at this time. And we say we think that's good for equities. >> And John, what is your UN target for the S&P 500 here. >> My year end target has been exceeded twice this week in terms of the closing price. It's been exceeded several times in the last 5 or 6 days. But those were inter market moves. But closing prices twice now in succession. And it looks like it's going to happen again today, we'll be we'll be reviewing our target over the weekend. That's all I can say. Whether we will whatever we'll do with it. You'll find out on Monday. >> Can I can I ask you your honest opinion here about these targets? These price targets? A lot of times they're for 12 months or end of the year. What do you what do you say to investors with how serious should investors be taking thes? >> Well, I think the most important thing that we'd have to think of here, Jared, is that the importance of the target really is it's kind of the fun part of the game for strategists and the and the press. As well as investors who like to see what it is in terms of what's the direction. That's what really counts. Are you looking for gains this year or not? We started this year. Well, last year in December, we put in a 5200 target for the S&P 500. For this year. It was one, if not the highest target on the stree. People thought we were nuts. It was exceeded sometime in the first quarter. We raised it at that time to 5500. And now we've got to think about what we're going to do from here, and it's our our targets are based on, very much on fundamentals. It has to be the trends that we see both in economic data as well as in revenue growth and earnings growth, primarily in the S&P 500 as it right now is the leading index. And the way this economy is structured. >> And John, you mentioned earnings earnings season is here next week. The big banks John broadly what are you expecting from this earnings season? >> I think we'll probably get a continuation of the trends we've been seeing in the big banks with the big banks, surprising often to the upside at least 1 or 2 names. With results likely to be coming in from both, trading, as well as from asset management. Related to, lending facilities and commercial bank operations. We'll have to see what that looks like with the consumer slowing somewhat. But overall, we're looking for a positive print on the banks with upside surprise likely. That said, look for it to be mixed. And if the market does what it's done in the fourth quarter, in the first quarter earnings season and likely this earnings season, a good result could easily be sold because the traders will say, well, we bought the rumor we're selling on the news, and then maybe in a couple of weeks they may very well buy it back. If you look at the performance of the financials, it's improving. And we think that's because we're moving towards normalization. >> We've got a pretty big weekend when it comes to interviews. President Biden is expected to address the nation, I wondering does the election pose substantial risk for investor investors? I mean, one day aside, maybe, you know, a ten basis point move in the ten year aside, are there real is there real headline risk from the election? That's coming, that's coming up at least as, as of today, where we currently know, no matter what the noise is around the first debate, we at least know who the candidates are going into the weekend, >> and we'll have to see how things go forward. But, you know, we know what Biden does. We know what Trump is. Trump can do, as a result of that, with that, we've seen with both, with, with Trump, if you remember, in 2016 when he won the election, initially the market thought, oh, he's going to be terrible for the market down. They thought about it for about 15 minutes, and they decided that that wasn't the case. And they bid stocks higher. Similarly, with Biden, there was some worry because it was, it was, you know, the going by the time we got to, Biden's inauguration, you had, the Democrats were in control of the Senate, and they were also in control of the white House. And they had the house was relatively a narrow, gain of Republicans. And the thought was, what is it going to be? And it's been a really good year for the stock market. So I think ultimately, fiscal policy is the area where it could be perhaps worrisome with either of the two presidents, the current president and the past president, but when the when the rubber meets the road, people are getting more practical, as we've seen, in the volatility that we've experienced over the course of the last few years, that indeed, policy makes a difference. The fed policy, we think, is the way to go, fiscal policy worries a little bit because a lot of times it pays more attention to constituencies that need to be served and doesn't consider things like, the, the immense amount of debt that the U.S. has and the implications of spending. But overall, I'm sorry to go on. So long overall, what the market really cares about revenue and earnings growth. That's really what the market cares about. >> I've been in this love to get back to fundamentals here. We'll see. We'll see what happens next week. Always appreciate your insights and thank you for stopping by on a quiet Friday afternoon. I have a meeting coming up, a deep dive into Amazon's growth story. The tech giant reached a record high of $200 this week for the first time ever, a good sign for CEO Andy Jassy, who's been in the job for three years. We'll discuss what could potentially drive the stock to further heights. Do not go anywhere. >> From its start as an online bookstore to its rise in e-commerce and cloud computing, Amazon has become one of the world's most iconic brands. In 2023, the tech juggernaut generated over $575 billion in revenue and boasted more than 200 million Amazon Prime members worldwide. Beyond the ticker takes a deep dive into some of the company's biggest moments. Amazon was founded in 1994 by Jeff Bezos in his garage in Bellevue, Washington. The company was originally conceived as an online bookstore designed to compete with Barnes and Nobl. On May 15th, 1997, Amazon went public via IPO at $18 per share. One year later, the company began selling CDs, marking the start of its effort to become a shopping Goliath. In 2005, Amazon launched Amazon Prime, a $79 per year membership with free two day shipping on eligible orders a year later, Amazon launched Amazon Web Services. The platform would go on to become the top cloud computing service, ahead of those from rivals Microsoft and Google, and one of Amazon's most successful businesses. In 2011, Amazon rebranded its video service as Amazon Instant Video with access to 5000 movies and TV shows for Prime members. Three years later, Amazon acquired the video game streaming website Twitch for $970 million. Amazon then acquired high end supermarket chain Whole Foods in 2017 for $13.7 billion. It has since integrated the two companies, offering discounts for Prime members on September 4th, 2018, Amazon became just the second US company ever to reach a $1 trillion market cap after Apple reached it earlier in the year. Amazon sales and profits surged during the Covid 19 pandemic in 2020, as consumers turned to online shopping. In 2021, Bezos announced that he would step down from his role as CEO and be succeeded by AWS CEO Andy Jassy. In 2024, Amazon was added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, replacing drugstore giant Walgreens. The company continues to evolve, investing billions in AI startup anthropic, developing more smart home products and launching an AI shopping assistant named Rufus. It's safe to say Amazon is a staple of the digital age. >> Another eventful week for the meme trade. Roaring Kitty revealing his 6.6% stake in chewy and cost stocks skyrocketing more than 140% on Wednesday. So what's next for meme stocks? And what does it all mean for retail investors? We're bringing in just the man to talk about this Tasty live CEO Tom Sosnoff, for answers. Tom, it is always good to see you. You know, big, big picture. Tom. In 2021, when I was talking about meme stocks, I don't know if I would have thought skip ahead, you know, to July 2024, I'd still be talking about roaring Kitty and Dave Portnoy and meme stocks. I mean, I guess I would have been surprised if you've told me that. Are you surprised, Tom, that this is still a trend, a theme that we're talking about? >> Well, obviously, I think I'm in the same camp as you. I would have been if you had told me three years later from 2021, we'd still be talking about this in 2024. I think I would be super surprised. But then again, okay, I'll throw another angle at you. Maybe just the term meme stock. And it's not just like the GM's and the Chewy's, you know? I mean, was Nvidia a meme stock? You know, for an institutional meme stock? I'm not sure if that's just the new the new term that may stick, you know, for anything that's kind of, you know, out of control. >> So a problem of taxonomy. All right. Putting that aside for a second, I was just we were just talking about with our head of news here that we got we're feeling 2021 vibes. And stick with me. We got these mega-caps stocks heavy concentration favoring just a handful of stocks. And then out of the blue we get this retail explosion in certain names. We saw GameStop and Keith Gill filing a 13 G. Now that's that's a game changer too. And chewy are you seeing any any similarities here. >> Well of course I mean, first of all there's two stories here. The first story is the whole Keith Gill roaring Kitty thing. It's an extraordinary story for retail investors because somebody did something incredibly different than, than than it's ever been done before. And I mean, not to. Many retail investors turned $50 million into some couple of hundred million. God knows how much money he has. But it's really never been done before. So that in itself is an unbelievable story. But the other side to it, I think, is you bring up a great point. You know, I mean, what does this mean? Is this a repeat of 2021? Because if you remember, we normalized in 2022 and it was a pretty dark year for the markets. And I think you are seeing you know, you may be seeing some capitulation upside capitulation. You may be seeing kind of some euphoria. I don't know if we can, you know, can we maintain these levels or will we normalize, especially in volatility, especially in all the indexes and everything else. So yeah, I'm going to answer your question and say it's a little like 2021. Not as extreme but a little bit like it. >> Tom I'm just curious for folks who are listening right now and they're hearing us discussing, you know, roaring Kitty and the meme stocks and the moves and they want to play it. They want in. Tom, what guidance would you give? Is there any kind of just general, guidance, advice, tips and tricks? >> Well, you know, a tasty we, you know, we're like the third largest derivatives boutique. So we, we specialize in, in options when it comes to stocks like those, you know, most, most of our, customers and most of our trades are in the option marketplace. And most people that trade things like chewy and GameStop and things that have, you know, let's call these these are pure asymmetrical plays, right? You're just, you know, you want to risk one to make ten or something like that. And so a lot of people use the option marketplace for that. And I would just be careful in the sense that the markets in there, even though these stocks are very liquid and even though they have a ton of trade, the markets aren't great. They're a little wide. And you have to be careful about, you know, you have to be careful because some of the upside call skew is ridiculous. And if you're not used to upside call skew, it just means that calls are priced more expensive than the puts. And so it's where the velocity of risk is deemed to be. So that's the only thing I would watch out for is just be careful about the upside call skew. >> All right. We always appreciate a good risk management discussion. Give you the floor here. Anything else you want to tell investors could be about retail stocks. Just about anything. >> Well, you know, as we wind down for kind of I'm sure you guys are dealing with the same stuff we're dealing with today. It's just a weird week. You know, when you have a half day on Wednesday and a day off on Thursday, it's kind of it's a it's a weird breakup, but we haven't, I don't think we've experienced, you know, this kind. It's been a long time since we haven't seen, you know, a downtick. I think it's been three, almost 350 days since we've had a 2% drawdown in the S&P. And I think we've gotten to the point where, you know, we're a little frothy, as we like to say, the ducks are quacking. So just be careful, all right? >> The ducks are quacking. We're going to leave it on that note. Thank you for the visual and the audio as well. Tom Sazonov, as always. Thank you. >> Have a great weekend guys. >> And it is time now for some trending tickers. First up is Tesla shares are higher this afternoon putting them on track to extend their longest winning streak in over a year. And this comes as a car manufacturer beat on quarterly deliveries earlier this week. But Josh this is really a momentum story. And if we go to the Wi-Fi interactive I want to chart what's going on in Tesla, but also the entire EV space. So here's Tesla I've been tracking this inverse head and shoulders pattern that finally played out. And now we've got this multiple day rally to the upside. But more broadly look at the year to date in Tesla versus and some of the bigger ones versus everything else. You got this corner of stocks down there. When I do equal weight you just see that's most of the stocks right there. And they are down a significant amount. So hasn't been the best year for some of the smaller players in EV. But now we see Tesla. Guess what. Tesla is just breaking into even. >> You can see it's up point that edging into the green 0.7% for the year. Battling back. You know the stock's been rallying of course this week reported deliveries for the second quarter beat estimates. Investors liked it. We did speak to Dan Ives over at Wedbush Tesla bull. You know Ives came on the show pounded the table said listen the worst is in the rear view mirror for Tesla. Very importantly said it appears China saw mini rebound in the June quarter. Of course, in just a couple of weeks. Now, a few weeks you got China. Tesla's big report. So we'll be watching closely for that. We will. Another name we are on watch for here. Check out Boeing. That company will soon know whether its horrible 2024 is about to get even worse. Shares are actually up fractionally here. About 4/10 of a percent. But a crucial deadline is coming up here. Jared and the Journal I thought had a good piece kind of framing this story in which they said, listen, Boeing has to either plead guilty or argue a trial. Why it's innocent of a crime. It already said it committed, does it sound like great options? I mean, either way you play, you plead guilty. Of course, that's another hit to a company that's already taken a big reputational hit and sounds like there would be fines. There would be an independent, independent compliance monitor, not what any company, by the way, of course, wants to deal with. But as the Journal notes, you know, that likely would put an end to the criminal liability on the other hand, you could fight it. You could go to trial, of course. Trial. Who knows what happens. >> I think they just settle. And we got some pretty good estimates in the ballpark for what that could mean. So first of all, here's the theoretical maximum securities fraud exposures $28 billion, 28 billion. But they're probably not going to come anywhere close to that because it's a settlement. People settle the settlement value. This is Bloomberg Intelligence could be closer to 600 to 700 million. That's Bloomberg Intelligence, you know, so Boeing violated a 2021 deferred prosecution agreement, if this were a person, I would think they're facing jail time. But maybe this is just another 600 to 700 million. May not sound like a slap on the wrist, but when you consider the totality of the situation, at least in my mind, it seems low. Yeah. >> All right, we'll see how it plays out. >> All right. We're also watching the cryptocurrencies this afternoon. Bitcoin sliding after collapsed exchange Mount Gox is beginning to purportedly pay back the nearly $9 billion in Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash it owes to customers from its bankruptcy back in 2014. Now the crypto exchange platforms like Coinbase are falling on the news. And a simple question might be why is this happening? Why is the value of Bitcoin falling? Well, you have 140,000 bitcoins at this trustee has over in Japan. When they start distributing those to customers, a lot of customers are going to say, well, I want to convert this to cash. So they sell the bitcoin and then they buy the US dollar or whatever their local currency is. So that's what places potential pressure. But it doesn't have to separately over in Germany I think there's a trustee there who's going to distribute something like 50,000 bitcoins. That's a lot of money. So you know, another couple of billion dollars there. So this does tend to weigh on prices. And I think, you know, the technicals in Bitcoin not looking very good. Real quick on the Wi-Fi interactive I like to draw this at least once a day. Here we go. This is the year's price action. And now we are below. We've dipped below before but quickly recovered. Doesn't look like that's happening today. But give it another day or so. >> And then you said, well, what's the cast to get this one moving in the right direction? Again with a dovish fed do it get cut or two. >> You know I think a dovish fed is actually Bitcoin positive historically. So that could have something to do with it. You know is Bitcoin the inflation edge I don't think we have enough time for that discussion. Actually we don't have enough time for that discussion. >> We'll make room. We'll make room. It'll be on the podcast tune in. >> Yeah. Well we got takeaways too. >> So all right Macy's let's check that one. Receiving some love. And investor group seeking to buy Macy's has raised its buyout offer for second time. Square the Wall Street Journal. So this per the Journal again reporting that arkhouse management Jared brigade Capital Management have raised their buyout offer for the company to about 6.9 billion. Investors are offering 2484 Macy's shares they don't already own. And Macy's, pop in today, though still down so far this year. >> Yeah. Not I mean, Macy's is just kind of a shell of a company that it used to be. There is no way around that, $6.9 billion. That is a song compared to previous, you know, valuations and, and prior years. So I think yeah, this is going to face this is going to be a tough decision for the Macy's board. They got away a lot. You know at least they got the parade still. Yeah. >> Well that's something. Remember earlier this year Macy's said it would put two of Arkhouse nominees on its board. Kind of so ended the proxy battle. So I know listen lots of headlines. We'll see how this one ends up coming up. An investors guide to fixed income. Our next guest tells us the best way to build a portfolio with maximum benefits. You're watching market domination. >> With a rich history dating back to the 19th century, Eli Lilly has faced struggles and successes. But a booming market cap has quickly turned it into the biggest pharmaceutical brand in the world. Let's dive into Lilly's biggest moments with Beyond the Ticker. The company was founded in 1876 by Colonel Eli Lilly, a pharmaceutical chemist and Union Army veteran. Lilly experienced huge growth before and after World War One, including the expansion of its Indianapolis facility. In 1923, the company began selling I-listen to treat diabetes, the world's first commercial insulin product. Then, in 1952, Lilly became a publicly traded company on the New York Stock Exchange. In 1971, Lilly acquired cosmetic brand Elizabeth Arden for $38 million, eventually turning it into a financial success. It sold Arden to Fabergé for $657 million in 1987. Fast forward to 2009, when Lilly faced a fine of over $1.4 billion. The largest in U.S. history for illegally marketing its blockbuster mood disorder drug Zyprexa. It wasn't until 2022 that Lilly hit the jackpot with Tirzepatide, a new type of Glp1 product sold as Manjaro for type two diabetes. It began competing with Novo, Nordisk's, Ozempic Zep Bam, the same formula as Manjaro was approved for obesity in 2023 and began competing with Novo's Wegovy. The tour's appetite drugs have spiked, Lilly's stock by nearly 100% in the past year. In 2024, Lilly continues to reach all time highs and is currently the biggest healthcare company in the world, with a market cap of well over $800 billion. Wall Street projects the GLP one alone will net Lilly $13 billion this year. It's why Lilly is on track to make history as the first trillion dollar healthcare company. Why drops double digits for Bitcoin. >> Unexpectedly hits record highs. We're unpacking the catalysts. >> Driving daily market action and explaining the chain reaction. Why are oil prices trending lower? Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions? >> Or why a company's stock is up even though it missed on earnings? Insight from top strategists, economists and business leaders will help you make the smartest choices for your portfolio. This is catalys. Tune in daily at 10 a.m. Eastern on Yahoo Finance. >> Discount home goods retailer Big Lots announcing it is planning to close more stores this year and may be forcing permanent closure, revealing elevated inflation has put a damper on customers buying power. This is resulting in big losses for the company and substantial doubt. That's a quote about its ability to continue operations. Josh, this is a stock that has been under a lot of pressure. They're closing retail locations and I was just looking at the Wi-Fi interactive here. We have a discount retail heat map. You can't even see Big Lots. That's how small of a company is become, I can show you if I sort by equal weight. Here it is 42.8 million. That is, that is a very small amount. You look at the year to date totals here. It's been rough for a lot of these dollar stores. All these, that's up 30, but DG Dollar General down 6. Dollar tree down 25. Yeah. >> Just reading through the headline Jared. So they have around 1400 stores apparently nationwide still. But to your point listen they closed about 50 stores in 2023. Now plan to close about 40 stores this year. And the stock has been clobbered clearly. Yes. All right. Moving on. The fixed income market could get interesting this election season. Following last week's presidential debate, the benchmark ten year yield rose six points to 4.34. We're looking at how to navigate the big picture on bonds with the Yahoo finance playbook. And joining us now to discuss is Kevin Nicholson, riverfront Investment Group global fixed income CIO Kevin, it's good to see you. So actually I'm interested to get your take. First of all on just the big economic news today, that jobs report. Kevin, what did you make of it? What do you think the fed makes of it? >> I didn't make a whole lot of it because we've got a lot of gotten a lot of mixed data over the last couple of weeks, as far as the fed is concerned, I think that the fed will look at that information. However, the fed is more focused on, core PCE. And I think that that's where their focus is going to be, it core PCE dipped in May, and only Rose, what was it, point 1, point 1% month over month, however, in June, it's supposed to rise is forecast to rise at 0.21% month over month. And then in July at 0.22, month over month. So if you just hold that June level for the rest of the year, you're going to get core PCE at 2.95. And I think that is more important to the fed than the jobs report right now. >> We got the ten year, it was only it was at 4.5% a few days ago. Now it's closer to 4.25% just a couple bips away. And there you see a year to date chart. Just wondering where do you think the ten year stops now? So it's been traveling down for a few days. Do we get support at 4.25? What does this mean for the market? >> Well, I think that if we're going to see the ten year drop below that, we need to from a technical standpoint, it needs to break through 420. And, thus far it hasn't been able to do that, I think that in order for the ten year to go lower, you're going to have to see something break or we're going to have to have a more risk off, market, right now, I think that the ten year is pretty much range bound. Between 4 and 4.5. For the second half of the year. I think that if we get the fed to, pull back and, and, and delay their rate cuts, we'll see the ten year go back into that 4.35 to 450 range, however, if they do begin to cut, I think that we're going to be closer to the bottom end of my range of 4. Closer to 4. By year end. >> So, Kevin, let's see your watch right now. You're a viewer, you're invested in treasuries. What's your advice, Kevin? What's your guidance? >> So we own treasuries in our portfolios, but it's at the back end of the curve. And we did that actually through strips. But for the general portion of our portfolio and the, we would actually look at the 3 to 10 year part of the curve. We like taking credit risk over interest rate risk. So we want to buy those corporate, those, companies, bonds that are, that are investment grade that are going to give us an additional yield of about 100 basis points in the investment grade world, so we're want to lock in yields that are above 5, and then in the non-investment grade world, when we think about high yield, we want to stay at the front end of the curve. But we want to be able to get, you know, pick up an incremental, you know, 300 basis points or so, and we only recommend a high yield for those clients that have a longer time horizon beyond five years. But that client that has a time horizon inside of five years, we're focused on the investment grade credits. >> So for high yield, can I read anything into that, are you concerned about some short term dynamics here where you would recommend you have to have some strength or you got to hold for five years? >> Well, I think when I think about high yield, what I'm really focused in on are looking at those, those companies that are in the upper echelon of high yield. So their double B rated, companies that have the opportunity to be able to move up into investment grade, get upgraded. And so, that is where we have been focused, because when we think of high yield, there are some companies that are basically fallen angels, as they like to refer to them. They were once investment grade. They fallen into Non-investment grade, and they now rightsized their business, and they're starting to do better and can get moved back up into the investment grade arena. And so that's why we like the high yield there. But we want to we put it in those clients portfolios that have a longer time horizon, just in case it may take longer for that turnaround. >> Kevin, I'm curious, election front and center ABC has its interview with President Biden tonight. I'm just curious, Kevin, how much are your clients asking you about the election and what are you telling them right now? >> Well, our clients aren't asking us anything about the election right now. And to be quite honest, we will tell them that the election really doesn't make a difference in financial markets. It will. It's good headline grabbing news, but oftentimes it will, have a very small impact on financial markets, so, you know, for our from our standpoint, from an investing standpoint, we're not focused on in, on the election, the one thing that I would have to say, you know, we possibly will get after the election a steepening yield curve, and that's largely is going to be dependent on the fed. And, so we think that the fed is going to remain independent. So I don't see a candidate, either candidate being able to force, the fed to move. So really it's not going to have an impact on the election. From my vantage point, Kevin, we got under a minute. >> I'll give you the floor here, any final words for investors? >> Oh, I think that, if I had to think of anything for investors, for fixed income, I think that they need to lock in these higher rates while you can, a lot of money has been sitting on the sidelines or have been invested in money markets over the past year, plus. Well, if and when the fed does begin to cut rates, those that front end of the curve, those short maturities, you're no longer going to be able to reinvest at those, those higher yields that you're seeing, you know, that have been north of 5. So that's why we're stressing move out on the curve. And that 3 to 10 year part of the curve and try to lock in using credit. Markets to get that five plus percent yield because it's not going to be there, once the, the fed finally does, begin to cut rates. >> Kevin, always good having you on the program. Have a great weekend. >> Thanks. You too. >> And while wrapping up today's market domination, don't go anywhere. We've got you covered with all the action following the closing bell. Stay tuned for market domination over time. That is the closing bell on Wall Street. And now it's market domination. Overtime. Let's get you up to speed on the action from today's trade. Jared, what are you seeing? >> Well, I think what stands out here is small caps in the red that is today. And also the week. Let's just cover that. First we are seeing small caps down 1% over the week. Now you contrast that with the Nasdaq composite up 9/10 of a percent over these four days. Up 3.5. This is going to be now ten of the last 11 weeks. The Nasdaq Composite has been up. So that is just a really big amount. And then you look at the sector action. It's still about the mega caps. Look at that communication services. That is the home of Meta and Alphabet. That's number one. Then number two is staples. So kind of a defensive play maybe. But then consumer discretionary is third health care. Anyway. It's an interesting mix at the top here. And I think the Nasdaq 100 tells a big story here. Nvidia is down. Yes but meta is up 6. Lots and lots of dark green especially in the mega caps. That's the outperformance. >> How much of this is sort of we were talking about this earlier. In your opinion. You got more economic day to day. You got the big jobs report. And how much of it is kind of just confirming the story we've been telling ourselves anyway about an economy. It's cooling, it's moderating, but it's not crashing. And maybe Jay Powell feels like, oh, you know, I got the cover to make a cut. Not July but coming. Yeah I think that's a big part of it. >> Nothing today upset the narrative and the prevailing narrative is stocks are going up. And this is as we've been talking about, the ten most bullish days of the year at least when you consider beginnings a month and ending a month. That's right now. So this is supposed to be a bullish time of the year. Not a lot of traders at that desk, at their desk. And so we do think see things tend to rise if we're in the bear market I would expect stocks to maybe go down. But you know the prevailing trend is definitely up. >> And didn't you teach me to share a little about seasonality and how right now, at least right now, we're kind of in the sweet spot for as a tailwind for the Bulls. Yeah, we're still we're coming off some really good seasonality. >> We don't have any big impediments to it. But we're not going to get any tailwinds from basically. So the middle of July into the beginning of November, you don't have those tailwinds. So anything can happen, and then when the November election takes place, guess what? Magically, the seasonality kicks back in. But yeah, there's a couple months there of maybe 3 or 4 months when things get a little dicey. And, you know, we don't have that map. >> All right, let's get another perspective here because joining us to help us break down this four day trading week, which include a couple of fresh record highs, is Kayla Cedar State Street Global Markets macro multi-asset strategist Kayla, it is good to see you. It seems like Kayla, what you're suggesting is when you look at the big jobs report today and other, you know, economic data, you've been reviewing, you seem to be saying, Kayla, you see an economy that okay, it's cooling. It's moderating, but it's still, in your opinion, looking fairly and relatively resilient and strong here. >> Yeah. Thank you so much for having me. You know I think that's that's definitely right. We have this kind of moderation that's going on, this, direction towards moderation. But the actual level is still quite strong. And so, you know, I think what that means is as we're assessing this data, we have to put some of this moderation into context. And so, yes, you have, a headline figure in the NFP print today, that was still above pre-COVID norms. But then you do see some signs of weakness underneath. However, if we take a step back, wage growth is still quite strong. JOLTS data implies that, you know, there are more jobs available, job openings rather than there are folks unemployed. And so when you bring this back to monetary policy, yes, this means September is live. But thus far it looks like the economy is still perhaps too strong to accept or expect a cut in the near term. >> Do you think it's just too strong? Period. And we might see a risk of re-acceleration up, which would mean maybe the fed is on pause a lot longer than people thought, or gasp even has to raise rates that seem to be a possibility a few months ago, but admittedly, it's been priced down quite a bit from then. >> Yeah. You know, I think it has been priced down because the data has started to move in the direction towards easing and moderation. So that means that the bar for a hike is higher than the bar for a cut. With that said, though, I think you point out a really important factor to consider is that the fed certainly does not want to cut and then have to hike again. And so I think that's why when we look at the underlying data, especially in the CPI prints, we want to start to see services and housing make progress back towards 2. Because otherwise there is that risk of re-acceleration. >> Kayla, another big economic data point next week CPI, what are you looking for there Kayla. What's your what's your expectation. >> Yeah you know one thing that we have, insight into at State Street is we have price stats, which is a daily measure of goods inflation. And so when we look at the progress made on goods inflation, thus far, that's really what has led a lot of this disinflationary move lower. And so I think that means two things. One, we need to start seeing more progress on the services and housing side. And we also can't see goods Reaccelerate. And so what we're seeing thus far is that goods inflation is continuing to move lower. We are seeing disinflation continue. And so that's a good sign moving into next week. But again we also really need to start seeing those housing OER figures start to come down. And we'll also be looking for a continuation lower in super core as well. >> What are the big macro headlines that you might be a little bit concerned about? Things, not necessarily front and center right now. Could be geopolitics. Could be election. The things that might cause some, perturbance in the market in the months to come. >> You know, I think the market does have this habit of getting ahead of itself. And so that's what makes this transmission of or, I would say this movement in some of the data hard to grapple with because we do see weakening. But is it weakness? And so I would caution folks from getting too excited about some signs of moderation and interpreting it as weakness and expecting too many cuts, unless we're really going to start pricing in a recession, which thus far looks unlikely, it's going to be hard for the fed to really deliver this. Really, this large magnitude of cuts. And so it's much more likely, I think, that we're going to see a shorter and relatively shallow cutting cycle. >> So, Kayla, add it up for us. Given your view of the economy and the fed for investors listening right now in the stock market, Kayla, what do you prefer? >> Yeah, I really prefer still large cap quality growth, which really still means tech as we approach earnings season, which is going to be kicking off next week, it really does look like tech is where majority of the earnings growth is going to be. As we look forward to the rest of the year, expectations are that earnings will continue to accelerate, but revenues will decelerate a little bit and so when we think about okay, what does that mean for sector allocation. That's really an okay story for tech. Because what that means is they can still support profit margins without some of this revenue growth given their borrowing costs given their cash flows, things like that. And so they're very well, bolstered to navigate that kind of environment. >> All right. Got to leave it there. But appreciate your insights here on this quiet Friday afternoon. Thank you Kayla, thanks so much for having me and coming up the road ahead for automakers. While carmakers reported modest sales growth for the second for three quarters, experts foresee challenging times on the horizon. We're going to unpack potential risks driving a slowdown for the industry in the back half of this year. That is up next. >> Automakers reporting modest sales growth. GM reporting its best quarterly sales in more than three years. Tesla seeing sales fall less than expected for the second quarter. However, looking to the second half of the year, the road ahead for automakers may be a rocky one. Cox automotive executive analyst and senior director of economic and industry insights Aaron Keating joins us now to discuss. Aaron is good to see you. So, maybe it's our big picture. You know, we did just hear, as we mentioned from GM and Ford and Tesla, just the 30,000 foot view. Aaron when you look at the U.S. auto industry, how healthy, how strong does it look to you? >> You know, I think we actually have to put it in perspective. And so far, I think we're seeing a pretty good year. We all knew that the uncertainty with the election, the climate, the interest rates keeping at high levels that we were going to be seeing potentially a slow growth this year, certainly the CDK outage in June didn't necessarily help us. The fact that the OEMs or the automakers have not come in with really high incentives like they were in the pre-pandemic, I think we're doing pretty well. >> What are margins looking like? We're talking about increased incentives here. We know that the automakers like to provide a little juice for the customers from time to time. How are margins faring? >> So admittedly, then Cox Automotive, we don't get terribly deep into the financials of the automakers. But again, we're seeing them starting to loosen some of the financial space they have on the cars as they try to move more metal off the parking lot. So we are going to we are anticipating that we'll see some more incentives coming forward, there's a lot of rate subvention that's having to happen right now because of the high interest rates. So we're hoping that they'll be able to give a little bit more of this back. It may come a little bit from the dealers margin and a little bit of sharing from the automakers margin as well. >> Aaron, let's talk about a trend. We talk we discuss a lot here. EV sales growth Aaron. Not what it used to be. I'm interested for the reasons you see for that Aaron. And what you think it would take to kind of jumpstart that. >> Well, I think, you know, what we have to remember is that some of the decline or a lot of the decline is actually coming out of Tesla's share. They were primarily the biggest competitor in the market. The only competitor in the market for a long time outside of Nissan and Chevy. But we see a lot more competitors coming in with some really compelling products as well as good incentives and of course, the tax credit. So I don't see that we say EV demand is completely falling off a cliff or anything. It's normalizing. And so as we see Tesla start to drop share, that's not alarming around the entire message for EVs, because the rest of the brands are actually starting to really lift in their EV sales. So while we may not be at 10% this year, we're going to hit awfully close to it. More hybrids are being sold, more EVs are being sold. This is all good for the transition to fully electrified vehicles in the future. So I'd say that we're still on a path to getting to an electrified future. It's just going to take us a little bit longer, and we're really excited about the fact that we finally have some additional players in the market providing some really good options for consumers. >> Let's talk about the some of those players in the market right now. I was just looking at the Wi-Fi interactive. I know you don't comment on stock prices, but what I'm going to show illustrates the big versus the small. These are this is a year to date, performance for a bunch of EV stocks. And Tesla just became positive today actually. But GM is up 30, Toyota is up 12, BYD is up 9. And then these little the a lot of the smaller players in EV just are not doing it. Rivian down 37. Lucid Motors down 30. Admittedly, China is its own story, but what do you think the difference is between some of the outperformance of these big guys versus the little guys? >> I think it's I think it's precisely that a story, the big guys versus the little guys. I do think that we anticipate Rivian starting to get a little bit more under its feet, especially with its new tie up with Volkswagen, and I do think that the automotive market will have to balance itself out. I mean, a lot of people forget that at the beginning of the last century, I think we had over 1000 automakers, you know, and whittles down. So I think we may see more consolidation or more collaboration amongst some of the OEMs, and meaning some of the really small players might get swallowed up, perhaps a lot of them over in, in China, but even when you saw the Volkswagen and Rivian announcement, you see where they're starting to realize that collaboration in some areas is actually good for the rising tide helps all all ships. And of course, we may see a few like we saw with Fisker filing for bankruptcy. Some of them will go away from the market and that's okay. That's the speed of competition. Right. >> Aaron, get you out in this. You know, we talked about EVs. I also want to know what's going on with trucks. Aaron, broadly, I mean, what are the what are the trends and themes you're seeing there so broadly? >> I mean, trucks still make up a majority of our sales, but we are seeing that the smaller subcompact SUVs, compact trucks, and of course, sedans are starting to have a little bit of a renaissance here where a couple, you know, their share is going up just a little bit. But I don't see that we're going to transition to, going back where sedans are the primary winner in this market. So trucks are doing okay. They are stabilized, but we are seeing that the lower cost vehicles, which tend to be the smaller vehicles, are certainly pushing up in sales. And again, that comes back to the affordability challenge that we're seeing in the market that if they need a car, they need four wheels. They'll take what they can get. And if that happens to be a little bit slower than they anticipated or wanted, then that's what they'll grab for the newer used car and we will leave it there. >> Aaron Keating, thank you. >> Sure. No problem. >> And that's going to do it today for today's market domination over time, be sure to come back Monday at 3 p.m. eastern for all your coverage leading up to and after the closing bell, but don't go anywhere on the other side of the break. >> It's asking for a friend. I've got you covered for the next half hour with the latest and greatest market moving stories. You can get ahead of the themes affecting your money. Stay tuned. >> Warner Brothers Discovery, a company with deep roots in the entertainment industry for over a century, but it was only formed a short two years ago. Beyond the ticker takes a deep dive into the media giant's history as it grapples with legacy media challenges and looks to build its streaming business into a serious industry player. Warner Brothers was founded on April 4th, 1923, and quickly built itself into one of the Big Five American studios alongside Universal Pictures, Paramount Pictures, Walt Disney Studios, and Sony. In 1966, the Kinney National Company was formed. Its media division became Warner Communications. Meanwhile, discovery was founded in 1982 as the Cable Education Network. The Discovery Channel launched soon after that. In 1985. Five years later, Warner Communications was established as Time Warner. That followed a high profile merger with Time Inc. that created the largest media company at the time. Time Warner then went on to purchase the Turner Broadcasting System in a $7.5 billion deal. In 1996 that led to the acquisition of assets like HBO, CNN, and Turner Sports. Flash forward to 2018, and Time Warner was acquired by AT&T for $85.4 billion. It was renamed WarnerMedia. The two companies officially merged in 2022, after WarnerMedia was spun off by AT&T, joining forces with discovery in a deal valued at $43 billion. Trading began on the Nasdaq on April 11th, 2022, under the new ticker symbol Wbd. The stock opened at $24.08 a share. The joint company's first major project, the 2023 streaming launch of Max, which offered content from Warner Brothers, Discovery Channel, HBO, CNN, Cartoon Network, Animal Planet and more. Wbd is still aiming for a top spot in the ever evolving entertainment industry, with investors closely waiting for its next wave of innovation. >> Hello and welcome to asking for a trend. I'm Josh Lipton for the next half hour, we're going to be breaking down the trends of today that will move stocks tomorrow. There's a lot to keep track of. So we're focusing on what you need to know to get ahead of the curve. Here are some of the trends we're going to be diving into. It's been stock market Christmas in July. The major indices finished the week higher, setting new records as investors embraced the prospect that that June jobs report will push the Federal Reserve closer to a rate cut. But this is no surprise as July we know, has historically been one of the strongest months for the markets. Plus, the box office is back and sequels are the story of the summer once again with Despicable Me four and Inside Out two leading the charge. Can the sequels come to the rescue once again, an electric air taxis are nearing launch, and you could soon be flying above traffic for the same cost as an Uber, at least according to Joby Aviation. Madison Mills travel to jobs manufacturing facility and to get a closer look at what to expect from this emerging sector. But we begin here with the summer box office, which is heating up with sequels leading 4th of July weekend. Inside Out two is crossing the $500 million mark domestically, and Despicable Me four opening strong on Wednesday with a gross of $27 million. We could also see a potential Barbenheimer 2.0 later this year. For more on the state of the box office, we're bringing in Paul Dear, Guardian Senior Media Analyst at comScore. Paul, it is good to see you. So maybe to start off kind of big picture here, Paul. You know the box office this summer. How we doing Paul? How healthy does it look to you relative to what we saw last summer? >> Well, Josh, if we were sitting here about a month and a half ago, I would have said, well, it's pretty bad because we got off to a rather slow start for the summer of 2024 with the fall guy, a great movie, but opened to $27.5 million. Compare and contrast that with the opening weekend of the summer in 23 with Guardians of the Galaxy Volume three opening to $118 million. We then had a rather slow Memorial weekend, and by rather slow, I mean one of the slowest Memorial weekends at the box office in history. But what a difference a month or a month and a half can make. And we saw signs of life in early June with Bad Boys Ride or Die opening beyond expectations at about $57.5 million. But then the big one, inside out to it opened about four weekends ago. It's coming into its fourth weekend. That film is at $1.12 billion in global box office as we speak. Josh pretty and we and now we have despicable Me four, already has earned almost $50 million domestically heading into its first weekend, having opened on Wednesday, those that the two day number is close to 50 million. We're expecting perhaps another 80 million at comScore this weekend for that film. And that could be 120, $130 million opening. Five days for Despicable Me four. So it is the summer of sequels, no doubt. More to come. >> So sounds like summer sequels, and maybe some better performances than maybe someone had initially expected. Paul, I'm just curious when you when you do though, look at the overall box office, the industry. Paul, how does it stack up pre-pandemic? >> Yeah, that's a that's a different story. And it really is the impact of course, the pandemic impacted everything in terms of box office. But we're we're definitely recovering. But then the strikes hit and that through the release calendar into disarray. And that effectively kind of, you know, it disrupted the calendar so much this year that we really didn't get started in terms of big box office to really June. I mean, we had some big movies early on, like Dune. Dune two and others. But we the comparisons to last year were really tough. So. Right now we're running about 18.8% behind last year, year to date at this point. But just about six weeks ago we were running down. We were down nearly 28. So in the course, what a difference a few movies and some time makes in terms of knocking down that year to date deficit of course we have twisters on the way. Deadpool and Wolverine is going to be the next $100 million opener of 2024 and Inside Out two. So far, the only movie to open with over $100 million domestically this year. But that's going to change here with, Deadpool and Wolverine and twisters I think is a total sleeper, although maybe not now because we're talking about it. >> Do you think Paul, though something kind of structurally has changed, though just bigger picture. There's just so much good content now at home, right? I mean, what I can stream, you know, thanks to, for example, Netflix. I don't know if you saw it. I mean, baby reindeer, amazing. Paul Wright, Ripley. Ripley. Incredible. And I don't own Netflix stock just for viewers. This is pure, pure you know, pure neutral reviews by Josh Lipton. But it's such good content Paul that's available now to the consumer. How much just harder it is to get Josh Lipton off his couch to schlep to a theater, which, by the way, isn't all that cheap either. >> Well, I think it's relatively inexpensive to other outside of the home activities. If you look at traveling, you know, to another, state, country island somewhere. It's very expensive to travel. Also sporting events, concerts, very expensive. If families are taking themselves and all the kids out this weekend to see Despicable Me four or Inside Out to again, it's a relative bargain. But apropos to what you asked, I think there is more selectivity on the part of consumers who have so much choice. And you just mentioned a lot of great shows. I love streaming as well, but you're not going to sit out going to the movie theater for a movie like Dune two, Inside Out two, Despicable Me four. I mean, it really is. That differentiator is that communal and immersive experience in theater. But I agree with you. It takes a lot more to get people off their couch and out to the movie theater. But when it happens, I mean, look at Barbenheimer last year that phenomenon you alluded to this in your opening was that, you know, Wicked and Gladiator two are opening on the same day, November 22nd. Could there be another Barbenheimer in the offing? I don't know that anything will be that, but certainly it's cool to have those two movies and you know, opening on that same date, and it creates a conversation around going to the movies. That's something you can only get going out to the movie theater. It's that communal experience. It also these experiences go viral. I mean, the movie theater is a hub of social influence, and we saw that play out with Barbie last year, certainly in Oppenheimer. And there's more good movies on the way. I think the fall and holiday are really loaded with great films. Got another Joker film coming out, you got Moana two, which was going to go streaming now going to the committed to the movie theater. A lot of other great movies and mix wicked, Gladiator two, among others. >> All right, Paul, you convinced me. Maybe I need to get out of the house. I have to get out of the house more often. My wife tells me the same thing. Paul, thank you so much for joining us. Have a great weekend. >> Thank you. Josh, you too have a good one. >> Coming up, flying taxis are closer than ever to reality. Yahoo finance spoke with industry investors, officials and analysts and traveled to Joby's manufacturing facility to get a closer look at what to expect from this emerging sector. That is next. On asking for a trend. >> For more than six decades, the discount megastore Walmart has redefined retail. >> In 2023 alone, the company brought in more than $648 billion in revenue. Beyond the ticker takes a deep dive into the company's biggest moments. Walmart was founded in 1962 by Sam Walton. Its first location was in Rogers, Arkansas, five years later, the Walton family owned 24 stores and had racked up $12.7 million in sales. On October 1st, 1970, Walmart went public via an IPO on the New York Stock Exchange. Shares opened at 1650 per share. The company opened its first Sam's Club in 1983, in Oklahoma, in a bid to compete with Costco's wholesale member only model in early 1988, founder Sam Walton stepped down as CEO and David Glass was named his successor. That same year, the first Walmart Supercenter opened in Washington, Missouri, creating what it's currently known for that mix of general merchandise and grocery. In 1996, Walmart opened its first location in China and surpassed $1 billion in sales for the year. Walmart.com launched in 2000, allowing US customers to shop online as Amazon.com began to take off to compete with Amazon, among other online retailers, Walmart introduced free two day shipping in 2017. During the pandemic, the retailer boomed as consumers sought out the Covid 19 vaccine and then cheaper groceries as inflation picked up in late March, Walmart's stock reached a record closing high of $61.45 per share, and it only keeps growing from here, with more than 10,500 stores in 19 different countries. >> The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted record closes to end this holiday. Shortened week. Investors embracing the idea that the June jobs report may push the fed closer to that rate cut. Yahoo Finance's Jared Blikre joins us here with more on the trading day takeaways Jared. >> Well thank you. Josh I think the Mega-caps you know we talk about concentration. You can't talk about it enough. So I'm saying record Megacap highs. We had four today amid Christmas in July. That's a reference to this seasonality this bullish seasonality that we've had. So I'm not going to show any seasonality maps. But I do want to show the Mega-caps. And four out of these, four out of the seven Magnificent Seven posted records today, Microsoft, alphabet, Apple and meta. Amazon just missed it by less than a dollar in videos read there, but I just think that kind of tells the whole story there. We have this bullish seasonality. And what do markets have the tenacity to do go higher. And that's what we're seeing. >> Is it just big tech Jared. Is that all we have. No. And there's more to the story. >> Well you know I've been seeing software catch up recently. So I like Igv as a software ETF that just is just shy of record highs. So we are seeing it's kind of spread into some other areas. But is software that different from tech. You know, the whole AI story, let me just show you this is a Nasdaq 100 versus the Russell 2000. This goes all the way back to the late 1980s. Here is the dotcom bubble. And what you will notice is we are higher. So small caps are even at less of valuation. Premium to the large caps. And I'm using the Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000 as proxies. Then that tech bubble that we had 24 years ago. So something is a little bit different. All right Jared Blikre point number two intervention. Is it nigh in Japan. >> The nigh. Yes. You don't hear that word very often. >> You don't hear you know what. >> Also I like your intervention. You could just make a portmanteau out of that. I did bring some charts and here we have the Japanese ten year bond versus its target range. So in purple we have the bond. This goes back to 2016 2017. And these blue dotted lines that is the Bank of Japan. That's where they're trying to keep it contained. As you'll notice here, they're not really keeping it contained. They keep trying to keep it in there. But then they are forced to capitulate. And as they are playing this as this is playing out, the yen has been weakening, the yen has been weakening. >> Talk to me about the yen. How does that play into the story? >> The yen has been weakening to levels that we haven't seen since 1986. So this is the US dollar versus the yen, and let me put a max chart on. So you'll see this goes back to the late 1990s, and here we are. We are at the highest point that we've seen on this entire chart. Torsten Slok, Apollo chief global economist. He says that the yen would be at 140. It's at 160 now, it would be at 140 if the if the Bank of Japan were not pulling all these levers. So there's a big there's a big dislocation in there. And the worry is, is that there's this dislocation that kind of hits the market all at once. You spread things out. Generally it's okay, but sometimes, you get you hit some problems here if it all comes at once last point, you know, we got to talk about crypto. Crypto never sleeps. And we are facing another, what, two day 48 hours here without prices in in but not in crypto. So I've been tracking this crypto crash that we've had kind of a big deal because Bitcoin itself has broken through a trading range that is held for seven several months. Here I'm going to get our crypto heat map up. And there we go. So you'll see Bitcoin in the red for 3. It kind of broke down yesterday. And we got this news about Mongox. We also have Germany. >> All in all something like bearish headlines yet short 290,000 bitcoins. >> So you multiply this price times 190,000. You're going to get 10 billion something like that. That is a potential maximum amount of selling that's going to hit the market. It doesn't mean it's all going to happen at once. But I think it's instructive that we are breaking down through this range. So Bitcoin kind of famous for false breakdowns. If we're back above 60,000 by Monday I would say that's another one. But probably that is not my base case. So I think we're in some for a little bit more prolonged downturn here with respect to crypto overall. >> All right. >> Levels to watch. Thank you Jared thank you. Appreciate it. You could be flying above traffic to the airport in an electric air taxi for the same cost as an Uber by 2025, at least according to Joby Aviation electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles promise efficient battery powered transport akin to urban Ubers or Lyfts in the sky. Yahoo finance spoke with industry investors, officials and analysts and traveled to Joby's manufacturing facility in Marina, California to get a closer look at what to expect from this emerging secto. >> Marina Traffic Experimental 542 Bravo. So we're at the downtown Manhattan Heliport, and what we're going to do is we're going to take off. All I want you to do is pull back with your right hand. That will make you go up. Just pull back hard. Yep. And there you go. Now you're flying. >> I'm flying. We're not actually flying above the Statue of Liberty. That's a simulator from Joby Aviation, which is used to train traditional pilots on how to fly this battery powered aircraft with the backing of Toyota and Delta, it's one of the largest companies looking to bring battery powered air taxis to market. These aircraft are called Evtols, which stands for Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing. At first glance, it may look like a helicopter with extra propellers on top, but unlike choppers, Evtols run off electricity rather than fuel. >> This is for charging. >> It took us about six minutes to get from JFK to downtown Manhattan. >> Over $22 billion in investments over the last 20 years, from names like Uber, Stellantis and Honeywell, have now made this kind of a commute closer than ever thanks to advancements in Evtol technology, high performance propeller blades that are very light. In addition to Delta major aerospace names like United and Boeing see the potential and have invested with the hopes of one day adding evtol rides to their list of offerings. Getting in now makes sense. One research firm estimates the air taxi market could be worth more than $65 billion by 2028, while the tech has proven to work, and it could be even closer to commercial launch in Europe. Here in the U.S, regulation, lack of infrastructure and customer affordability could be what keeps these companies from taking off. Yahoo finance went inside Joby's 130,000 square foot assembly facility to learn more about how the company hopes their aircraft and their business strategy will win the air taxi race. This is what's next in the business of electric air taxis. Flying above traffic in a congested city sounds like fiction from The Jetsons, but air taxi companies believe they can make this a reality as soon as 2025. >> This is as close as we've seen, I think, in terms of the technology coming together to make something that you could use on a daily basis to go where you want to go and do the things that you want to do, which is kind of what a car is all about. I think that is something that's gonna be practical and available to people in the pretty near term. >> The Joby aircraft has completed more than a thousand test flights. The aircraft can fly five people, including the pilot, up to 150 miles. >> What can you do with the way you design and build an aircraft? If you have a world class electric propulsion system available, which no other aircraft have really been designed around? In some ways, the six motors on the aircraft are powered by four batteries, which were developed by a team of Ex-tesla employees. When that lets you do is fly very, very efficiently, which makes all electric work and makes all electric safer too. >> Redundancy was built into the aircraft. Everything has backups in place. So this is a battery. This is a battery. Does that exist on the other side too. >> So the aircraft has got four batteries. You've got that redundancy you can afford to I mean we can lose a battery and we still fly perfectly fine electric aircraft faced similar challenges to electric vehicles, which don't have the added hurdle of launching into the sky. >> Among those challenges, battery charging times Joby can go up to 100 miles on a single charge, meaning it could do two trips back and forth to JFK from NYC's downtown heliport before needing a recharge. Joby says almost all of their trips and target markets would allow for recharging. That takes about as long as deboarding and boarding passengers, according to one report. Evtol batteries would ideally charge in under ten minutes, about as fast as Tesla's latest superchargers. Evtol companies hope safety measures will give them a leg up as they try and bite into the 10,000 traditional rotorcraft trips per day happening in the U.S. But first up, getting cleared to fly a representative from the Federal Aviation Administration told Yahoo Finance that while Evtols could launch commercially as early as 2025, 2028 could be more realistic, at least for scaled and competitive market. The FAA's innovate 28 initiative outlines requirements for launch that includes hitting certain safety criteria and flying under a variety of conditions. It's the same approach applied to traditional aviation. Still certification is not guaranteed. >> We don't know when certification for FAA will happen for any aircraft. The FAA changed them to special condition aircraft, essentially putting more rigorous certification processes on top of that. So I can imagine that we're going to see an Evtol in the air certified flying around folks in 12 months time. >> Does pre 2030 seem realistic? >> I do think late in this decade we'll have that. >> Until then, Evtols are focusing on countries with looser regulations. Joby plans to launch flights in Dubai by 2025, through a deal that was supposed to be exclusive, though Archer Joby's main competitor, later announced their own plans in the region back in the States, Joby is on track to hit the FAA's proposed timeline for approval. They've just completed stage three of a five stage trial, but with testing comes setbacks. The US National Transportation Safety Board released a report on a Joby crash from February of 2022. I know that there was a test flight that did end in a totaled Joby aircraft. Can you talk to me a little bit about what happened there and how you, as a leader, kind of transitioned the tech moving past that, we were flying pretty high and really fast, >> right at the edge. We were doing it remotely though, so that's actually one of the really interesting early use cases of autonomy that I think is a little underappreciated. We've taken care of it in all of the future designs, but we found it earlier because of the use of that remote piloting and autonomy in a way that I think ultimately is pretty beneficial. >> I think autonomous has its own issues, right? The fact that people will feel comfortable not only getting in an aircraft that they've never been on before, and having it have no pilot seems like the riskiest proposition. >> Still, autonomous flight could boost profits. Pilot salaries aren't public, but the average annual wage for commercial pilots in 2022 was a little over $100,000. That's according to the bureau of Labor Statistics. >> We think that's definitely going to come. We just don't think it's the right way to go to market to start with, because this gets us to market as fast as possible. And then that's something that will make it even better down the road. >> For now, Joby is partnering with companies like Toyota and even Uber, which sold off their own air taxi unit to Joby back in 2019. >> I led the Uber Elevate team, which was Uber's effort to build a flying car in some sense, ecosystem of different companies. We actually demoed this with helicopters in New York City in 2019 when we launched. Maybe you remember there was something called Uber Copter. You'll be able to in our app or in the Uber app, essentially choose Joby, a Joby flight, as one of the types of products. But it won't just be a flight alone. It's actually a multi-modal integration that integration will be needed since Joby won't have many locations available for flights at the start. >> Here's how it would work. In one of their first target markets, New York City users would open the Uber app and select the air taxi option. Then a car would come to the customer's door, drive them to the nearest Vertiport, which is a converted heliport that can handle the charging and storing of evtols. From there, users would hop in the evtol and land at a nearby airport, Joby says. In New York City, the flight would take about seven minutes. Uber isn't the only major company getting in on the action. Toyota invested nearly $400 million into Joby, and Delta invested 60 million. Archer, Joby's biggest competitor, has a $1 billion conditional order from United Airlines and raked in 150 million from Stellantis, as well as some well-known investors, including Cathie Wood, via her Ark innovation ETF and serial entrepreneur Mark Lowry. Major air taxi firms Joby Archer and Lilium have all had gains on the S&P 500 this year. To see this investment put to work, Yahoo Finance went inside Joby's assembly facility, which following the Toyota investment, now runs a lot like a car assembly line. >> So this overall is our final assembly facility. So we are bringing in all sorts of parts, all of the many different parts that go into the aircraft. Many of them get built here and then we have a process where we put them sequentially in the right order, in some sense onto the aircraft to build out that full aircraft. We are vertically integrated. We build the parts, and then we assemble the parts together into structures. And so what we have behind us is one of our structural assemblies for a fuselage, which is the body, the main body of the aircraft. >> That vertical integration is part of what attracted Delta to Joby. >> We spent at least 18 months looking at over 20 different evtol. Startups, really looking at what each one had to offer because of the technological strength that Joby had, the financial strength that they had as a startup. We felt that that made a great match for us to be able to collaborate. >> It's not just airlines chasing the future of aviation. Honeywell, broadly known for things like thermostats, has an aerospace unit that's now making parts for Evtols. >> What they've done is basically taken their partnerships onto Evtols by becoming a supplier. And that sounds like big investment dollars from Honeywell, but not so much because they're not touching their 27% operating margins, but instead, what the company has done is tell partners that if they would like Honeywell to partner with them, they could invest in Honeywell's product innovation. We don't know, like the background of those agreements for major airline carriers like Delta, Future investments into Joby are based on them achieving regulatory and financial milestones. >> We have specific performance criteria for us. It really is, the performance metrics is just getting them to market and making sure that we're comfortable and integrating a seamless experience for our customers. >> There's more than one path to get this to market rather than partnering with airlines, some Evtol companies like Lilium are looking to sell to them directly. The German based business, which offers a larger seven person evtol, plans to focus its efforts on manufacturing and maintaining its aircrafts instead of owning the end to end experience like Joby. Regardless of the business model or investors, some common obstacles exist for all Evtol companies, including infrastructure and adoption. Of the over 6000 heliports in the country, New York City is poised to be the first to transition one into a vertiport for Evtols. The effort is not cheap, though. One firm's model suggests costs could range anywhere from 3.5 million to 12 million for leading global city. Of course, that depends on a variety of factors like size and location. >> What we are looking to do on this side with a number of EV tolls is how do we embrace new technology, pivot to all electric, significantly reduce noise pollution so the end goal is a full pivot. The end goal is a full pivot. >> Infrastructure operators are putting in bids to transition this heliport into an electrified vertiport, one of two operated by the city. The plan is to convert both within a year of FAA certification, according to the mayor's office. >> We want a very significant federal award, so some money will come from them. Some money will come from the bidders who will have a long term contract to manage the site, and some will come from the EDC once they get FAA approval and find a way to build up Vertiports. >> The next obstacle for the industry scaling enough to keep costs down for riders. >> So our goal is to actually launch this service at something like Uber Black pricing on a per seat basis, though not on a per vehicle basis. We think that as we are able to build up those muscles, the way the technology is able to efficiently batch people into the aircraft and, and make the whole operation work more and more efficiently, we'll be able to drive down toward Uber like pricing on a per seat basis. And we think that really starts to get into that realm of like everyday flight. >> According to Uber, the average price of a trip from Manhattan to JFK is $135 for an Uber black and $87 for a regular Uber. However, Jeffries estimates that at launch that Joby Ride could cost around $200. Do you have an idea of how many flights per day per week? >> Yeah, we haven't we haven't really announced any of the details on that one. >> Consulting firm estimates the cost per passenger kilometer will decrease by more than two thirds between 2025 and 2040, but that's partially due to an expectation of autonomous flights in the future, which isn't without its own set of challenges. So monitoring the FAA certification is the number one. What are the number two? And number three headwinds that investors should be thinking about for Evtol? >> Second would be infrastructure. I think we don't have an infrastructure in place right now. Really, where could you take this aircraft from? Could you take it from on top of your building? Will your building have the infrastructure for it? If you have to commute 30 minutes to the terminal that has it, does that defeat the purpose of just taking the Uber? Third, I think, is just customer apprehension to try an Evtol, you know, we just seek more customer awareness. >> Joby detailed these headwinds and many more in an SEC regulatory filing from February. The company notes they have enough cash on hand to support the initial launch of commercial operations in 2025. But after that, if they're not generating sufficient cash flow, they'll use a combination of equity and debt financing to fund the business. Despite the financial obstacles and competition. If the Evtol industry gains adoption, it has the potential to transform the way we travel, and that goes beyond just how we get to and from the airport. >> It's easy to be negative on an industry that hasn't really taken off yet, right? So we want to be supportive of innovation. We want to be supportive of technology, but we also want to be cognizant of the current regulatory environment. >> There'll be other things that we can do with these technologies that we're certifying. We're really building toward the future in a lot of ways as well. We're building all of these capabilities, all of these muscles as a company, not just to build one revolutionary airplane, but to build the future of zero emission aviation. >> Time now. For what? To watch before we look at what's on deck next week. President Joe Biden is doing an interview with George Stephanopoulos later tonight at 8 p.m. eastern. This will be the first interview since Biden's debate with former president Donald Trump. And now looking ahead to next week on Thursday, we'll be getting the latest consumer price index or CPI print for June. And on Friday we're also getting fresh data on the producer price index for June. New CPI and PPI prints will be key inflation readings as the fed continues to decide on potential rate cuts this year and moving over to earnings on Thursday. Names such as Pepsi, Progressive, Delta and ConAgra to report their earnings and on Friday, big banks to kick off another earnings season. JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and Citi to report their quarterly results, providing investors more color on the state of the financial sector. That is a wrap on today's asking for a trend. Be sure to come back Monday at 4:30 p.m. eastern for all the latest market moving stories affecting your wallet. Have a great weekend! |
y78O-XpUaOQ | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y78O-XpUaOQ | 2024-07-05 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Stock market today: The S&P 500 holds near record as jobs data lands | 0 a.m. here in New York City. I'm Brad Smith, alongside Brian Sozzi this morning. This is Yahoo finance and its jobs day. Happy jobs day to all who celebrate out there. We certainly do. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to show a gain of 190,000 nonfarm payrolls for the month of June. Here. We're standing by for this number that's going to be crossing in just about 90s here. Guys you've been tracking one main figure kind of coming into this report. >> Do we really celebrate this? We should. Okay, I guess we should. We should celebrate. You won't be celebrating if we get that Goldman Sachs number. Looking up for 140,000 on the headlines. That would not be good. I'm looking at immigration. Really good chart by the folks over at Morgan Stanley into this jobs report, noting that immigration began to slow in March. And at what point, Brad, there you see that chart right there on that screen. What point does some of this data start to show up in various aspects of the jobs report, such as the construction market and the leisure payrolls to be determined or TBD? >> Yeah. You know, I'm keeping a close tab on the sectors here and here's why. Coming off of that ADP print where we had actually spoken with the chief economist of ADP, Nela Richardson, earlier this week, who let us know that and had put in this release for ADP that if it was not for leisure and hospitality in that sector, they actually would have seen a decline overall in aggregate. And so that is one major sector to keep a close tab on, keep an eye on going into this report. And then of course, looking at some of the wage figures that were kind of keeping tabs on coming into this right now, average hourly earnings month over month are anticipated to rise by about 3/10 of a percent. That's the Bloomberg consensus, right now. Average hourly earnings year over year 3.9. Wage growth is what we're expecting there. And there you're seeing the unemployment rate anticipation on your screen. >> And lastly, we're also watching the unemployment rate has ticked up for 3.4. A couple of months ago to 4. What does this all mean to the Biden presidency? Big interview with him tonight. The world will be watching. I think the last thing he needs is a bad jobs report here. >> All right. We are five seconds away from getting that jobs report. And as we're keeping a close eye on the futures, they're positive going into it. Let's take a look at the numbers that are crossing. Now. We've got 206,000 jobs that were added versus the 190,000 jobs expected. So that better than expected here. The unemployment rate ticks higher to 4.1. Average hourly earnings month over month came in at 3/10 of a percent, and you also saw the year over year figure for average hourly earnings moved to 3.9. Ultimately unchanged from what we had seen prior. As of right now. Taking a look at the futures, we're seeing much of the same that we were just seeing a moment ago where much of the futures activity is still leaning positive at this juncture, so we'll see exactly what this does to the CME Fedwatch probability as well. >> Speaking of government government jobs up 70,000. Really want to highlight one thing here real quick before we get to our Jared Blikre on markets. Downward revisions to April by 57,000. Downward revision to May by 54,000. You have to think what does this mean in the context of inflation? Initially this report may suggest perhaps we are back on the table for that September rate cut. Let's get over to Jared who's watching some of these early market moves. Very interesting report here Jared. >> Yeah I'm looking at the two year Treasury note futures. And so these move inversely to yield. And what we're seeing is a spike higher here on the report. So that means yields are dropping. Not not too many worries about that higher for longer. That was a two year. These are ten year note futures up 30 basis points. So similar boat. There And let's talk see what's going on in the stock futures. You can see S&P futures have rallied to their prior overnight high which happened about the European Open. But we're only talking about 13 basis points. This is not a big move by any stretch. And in fact we usually see a little bit of a fakeout on these days. So we might end up going the opposite direction once the market actually opens. Here are Dow futures. You can see similar chart but didn't quite make it up to their prior high here. And then let's check out what's going on with gold. We can see a little bit of a jump higher. Maybe some concerns about inflation didn't really see too hot a wage growth number, but that's one factor that happens. Or that's one of the things we see sometimes when we see gold futures heading higher here and then here, copper futures basically unchanged. Do you want to check out what's going on with Bitcoin. Because sometimes that does have a little bit of a delayed reaction. Not seeing any fireworks just yet. But we'll keep an eye on that. And then we got to check out what's going on in the sector. Action in stocks. And the background color is what happened on Friday. But you can see XLE there. That is the number one pre-market gainer up about 41 basis points or 4/10 of a percent after closing up 6/10 of a percent on Friday. So we got kind of a mixed board energy trading to the downside. So is utilities. But not by a large margin. And then some of the other gainers I should note real estate staples and financials tech just a little bit in the green there guys. >> All right Jared it'll be interesting to see what type of volume we see here today. Given that this is the day after 4th of July, perhaps a lot of traders away from those desks still. But we're going to be tracking this very closely. Jared, thanks so much for teeing up this next breakdown here. Joining us now to break down this latest June jobs number. We've got Joe Brusuelas who is the RSM chief economist good friend of the show Joe great to have you here on set. You were actually talking ahead of when we went live about this interesting dynamic about how if we see the jobs, print the nonfarm payrolls come in higher than expected, then we might have actually seen this exact reaction in unemployment rate as well. >> That's right. So look guys, this is what full employment looks like. This is what you want to see. This is a very good number. Now you know the data is we had up just before the number was released. You know immigration has played a big role in not just growth of the economy, but growth in the labor market, Goldman put out that report, and they were right about that. It slowed since March. And at one point, we're going to see these numbers come in a little bit lower. Last year, Jay Powell was talking about how he thought the break, even in overall monthly unemployment gains, was somewhere between 50 and 100. Now that was because we had that strong growth in labor supply. That's now slowing. So my sense is it's probably somewhere between 150 and 200 today. Nevertheless, this is another good, absolutely rock solid labor report. There's not much to complain about here. Moreover, if you're a market player and you see those downward revisions of 111,000 over the past couple of months, hey guys, that's fed positive. >> So isn't this the perfect report for Jay Powell. So you've had inflation start to decelerate. You have downward revisions. You don't have a two hot report that has to put a September rate cut on on deck here. >> No it does as a matter of fact look guys a policy rate in a range between 5.25 and 5.5% is no longer appropriate for an economy that has an inflation rate of 2.6, taken out to three decimals is 2.563, right? Moreover, growth is cooling. Hiring is cooling. The economy is normalizing. We're moving back to that pre-pandemic trend. You know, the large and persistent shocks that we've all lived through the past couple of years. I think we often undercount that or really underestimate just what it's done to the economy. This is unambiguous good news here, guys. This is what you want to see. That fireworks show we all watched last night. They should rerun it again after this report. >> I see this report. And this is not a stock recommendation. I'm thinking if I'm if I'm trading this is a buy Nvidia Apple type of market not to not too hot a jobs report. You have lower interest rates. I mean why not just stick with what's working in tech? >> I mean, well, you want to be able to mute at least one part of the kind of investment calculus. And so far muted higher for longer has meant the fed is going to be muted, at least for this interim period, which has led to that exact trade that you're talking about, or at least solidified it. I'm taking a look at the CME fed watch probability here and tabbing over to that month that you were just mentioning. And Joe, you were discussing as well. Here we actually saw a slight tick lower, just barely here. But I mean, the probability is still largely pointing towards a rate cut. >> They're not right. I'm right, I'm right. That's right. Just close it. Close that, close that down. >> The deceleration in our hourly earnings to 0.3% on the month, 3.9% year over year, along with those downward revisions. That tells me we can take off the table. Any notion of wage wage inflation really being on the table. Guys, I'm more comfortable with the fed actually hinting in July that they were going to go in September. If I'm a fed member, I'm actually thinking about July. They want to get out in front of what's going to be a decelerating job market. >> So, Joe, this report might be good for markets, tech investors, but is it good for the president. Now he's had a rough week and he may have a rough few more days. But you have a decelerating job market. And the unemployment rate is going to go up on the weekend papers. You're going to see unemployment rate is on an uptrend. Job market's slowing I mean this is not good for him. >> So my sense is that the US presidential election right now is about things other than the US economy. The US economy is going to be a second order story, probably through through November fifth. Look, you know, headlines or headlines, the American people know 4% unemployment. That's really good. That means I can get a job. My wages are going up. >> And look guys, but they don't feel good. >> So the economy has a funny way of trumping ideology and politics, right? At a certain point, that increase in wages above inflation does tend to take hold more over at the end of the day, what do we all see? We see them out spending. We see them out traveling. I mean, I got to go to the airport tomorrow morning. We're leaving extra early because over at LaGuardia it's going to be a royal mess because people are out spending hard earned money. I mean, I know what I'm doing. >> Well, I spent $7 on a bag of cauliflower chips yesterday and the bag was smaller. I mean, that's what people are seeing. I mean, and they're they're concerned. But anyway, I mean, your point is well taken. Your point is well taken. >> You also cooked that tomahawk steak that you sent me a photo off to ceremony or something. >> So, I mean, at the end of the day, and I was taking a look at one of the notes that was out from Blackrock, as they were talking about continued disinflation and allowing maintenance cuts here. >> You know, how how do you look at disinflation as we're seeing it right now? And what that means for some of the positive developments that we would need to see towards the back half and continuing in the back half of this year to set forth a rate cut pathway, even more so in 2020. All right. >> So the fed has been really consistent on this. They don't need to see disinflation or inflation get to the target of 2% on the top line PCE. Our forecast says we're going to be at 2.3% by the end of the year. Look guys, we're within shouting distance of it. Now if you want to get out and get in front of this and not have the fed be behind the curve, they need to begin shaping expectations. I think of that rate cut in September. That's been our call for a long time. We've got 25 on the table in September and again in December again. But I'm comfortable even with them. Considering July at this point, because I do think the growth in the economy or the economy is just normalizing. I want to be clear here, guys, this isn't a crack in the job market. It's not the economy's foundations cracking. We're moving back to trend. You know, when I see 206 and I think they probably overestimated by 20 to 40. Hey guys. That's sustainable. This is very good stuff. Do you see a catalyst in place to drive a re-acceleration in these jobs numbers. No I just don't see that. Right. You know, job openings are going to move up and down every month. But my sense here is, is that firms have retained labor for a very long period of time. Demand's now cooling. They're not going to continue to hoard labor like they have been. So we expect unemployment. Our forecast was 4.2% by the end of the year. That's looking pretty good here. On July fifth, 8 p.m. where are you going to be tonight, Joe? I'm going to be watching the president talk tonight. Like I think we all should get out there and register to vote. It's important. >> Joe, always good to see you. RSM chief economist. We'll talk to you soon. Have a good weekend. All right. Once again June jobs coming in a bit higher than expected. Adding 206,000. The unemployment rate ticking up to 4.1. We're seeing stock futures maybe a little bit of a bullish bias there. We go. You see Dow futures S&P 500 and Nasdaq all up slightly across the board. We'll be right back with more analysis on what this report means for some of your favorite stocks like Nvidia and Apple. Like I just mentioned don't go anywhere. The U.S. adding 206,000 jobs in June. We want to dive deeper into this report. And the market's reaction with Daniel Zhao. Glassdoor senior economist Harry Colvin, Longview economics director and senior market strategist. And Steve Sosnik, Interactive Brokers chief strategist. Well, lots of folks in this in this box. Good to see you all. Thanks for doing this. After the holiday, Steve, I want to go right to you. And I want to get your instant take on some stocks here. So I think we were just talking to Joe Brusuelas about this, so you saw the downward revisions in the jobs in the prior two months, maybe the expectation of inflation is slowing down sets the stage for that September rate cut. I mean, this has to be good news for some of the market's hottest stocks like Nvidia, Apple, Amazon right. >> Morning Brian. Good news I don't know enough news to upset the momentum trend. No this this does nothing. This does nothing. If you've been riding the Momo train then there's no reason, right now based on these numbers to get off what it's telling us today is that the economy does seem to be, slowing down, decelerating a bit. I guess the real question will come later. Later. This month, when the fed meets and we'll get a sense of, how nervous they are about it, because it does seem that the economy is beginning to decelerate, and then the question becomes, what are they willing to do about it in the short term, though, you know, we've been on such a momentum high, it's tough. It's tough to just say that this number changes anything meaningfully about the stocks that have been driving the market higher. Let's stay with the markets for a hot second. >> Harry I'll come your way here. And we're, you know, staring down another earnings season. What at least from the economic prints that we're getting, what could this spell out in terms of a broader theme or narrative that you hear from a lot of the CEOs over the course of the next couple of months? >> Well, I think it comes back to that point that one of your guests alluded to earlier, which was that companies have been hoarding a lot of labor. That was certainly the story 12, 18 months ago. And certainly if you look at the leading indicators of the labor market, companies are telling us they want to let go of some of the excess, they want to trim a bit of the fat, get a little bit more efficient. And I think we're beginning to see some of the softness coming through in the labor market. You know, we have these downward revisions on on the headline on the establishment survey, I would say as well, you've got to look at the household survey, because it's probably giving you a much better read of what's really going on in the US economy when the establishment surveys only asking the same large companies every month about hiring. And as you see in the ADP report, that's where all the job creation is. Look at small companies. Actually, there's not a lot of job creation that hiring in small or total jobs in small companies has been flat for most of the past year. And so the household survey is picking up on that. And it's showing that really the job market is actually much softer than one would think from just looking at these headline numbers. So I think there's softness emerging. And this is fascinating really for the debate around inflation and rates. >> Daniel, another somewhat decent jobs report here. What does this say about some of President Biden's policies and their impact on the economy? >> Well, I think it's always tough to attribute the growth in the jobs market or in the economy overall, specifically to the president's policies. But overall, we do see that the job market has been much more resilient over the last three plus years than we've expected. Like that's been the refrain that the job market is stubbornly resilient. And in fact, stronger than a lot of forecasters would have expected going in. So overall, we are seeing the job market is surprisingly resilient. It is cooling like we didn't get fireworks today, but we weren't necessarily looking for fireworks as policy makers look for the economy and the job market to cool down to get inflation under control. >> Steve, what is the kind of trend that we're seeing in economic data at least right now, set up for the second half playbook for investors out ther? >> Well, Brad, the question becomes, you know, we've rallied this year, as the economy strengthened, allowing the rate cut expectations to dissipate. Now the question is, ae we if we're flipping back to rate cut expectations? And last, I just checked beforehand, we were about at 80% for a cut in September. Now, is that because the economy is slowing. So, you know, does the market get it both ways? Can we do we like it if do we like it if the economy is strong and no rate cuts. And by the way, oh, the economy is weak and we are getting rate cuts, you know, that's where the question that's why I bring back the fed. The importance of the July meeting. Because the question is not necessarily 25 basis points here or there. The question becomes, is the fed prepared to do something and to act, or are they going to wait until the problem might metastasize into something larger? So again, in the short term, you know, this market is just so momentum driven, so driven by by a small cadre of stocks. It doesn't necessarily make a difference until until we start to see earnings results. Also later this month. By the way, there's a lot of things coming later this month. And you have a VIX which is looking 30 days ahead, which is basically ignoring all this. That's the other thing to sort of keep in mind as we go forward. >> Steve, you and I always have these candid conversations on stocks. I just and tell me if I'm wrong. I just feel as though investors are complacent about things that are about to come right out at them. You have a president fighting for his job. The other alternative is we know what the other alternative is with Trump. Is it the market being too complacent around political risk? And if I'm wrong, tell me I'm wrong and lay out your case. >> Ryan. You know I've never shied away from telling you when I thought you were wrong. And I don't think you're wrong this time. I think we're. Which is not to say we're going to have to. >> Producers, please book. Book Steve on the show again. We like we like Steve. We like Steve. You can tell me I'm right all the time, but but absolutely. >> That's what I was alluding to is, is we're looking at a period of complacency. You know, basically the stock market was didn't budge as the result of that of the debate. And all the and all the drama swirling around Biden, the bond market did move. It reacted negatively initially. It since come back a bit, you know, again, we have earnings later this month. We have a fed meeting that just became a bit more consequential, later this month. And, you know, as a note, VIX is meant to give the market's best estimate of volatility of over the coming 30 days. And it's telling you it doesn't expect any. A lot of that has to do with the fact that, you know internals of the market. You know certain stocks you know if you have some of the stocks rising and some of the stocks falling, well then that dampens the index, but it does tell me that markets just really do not seem to they don't seem to care as long as long as the, the, you know, the Magnificent Seven and the, the adjacent stocks keep holding their own and stock investors just aren't aren't registering anything else. >> Daniel, as as I'm taking a look through this report, as I'm kind of thinking about all the commentary in this discussion here, it kind of brings me back to this, this thought that many of us were sitting here waiting for so many jobs to be replaced by artificial intelligence, and we continue to get readings about job growth, even if that is slowing as of right now, does it seem like there's anywhere where we're seeing a massive kind of shift into AI specific jobs being kind of taken, taking over? I should say some of the existing workforce participatio, we aren't really seeing it replace jobs yet. >> We are. We do see from survey evidence, from talking to employers, like one of the most common ways that AI is being deployed right now is chatbots and marketing automation. Right? So it's not necessarily the sexiest like application of AI, not necessarily the high, high highs that, AI practitioners have have really promised. But it is starting to be used and it's starting to be experimented with, but not necessarily at a scale that you would expect to see an impact at the macroeconomic level, so it's possible if you look within marketing or content moderation, some of these jobs that might see a little bit of impact from AI, you could kind of see these micro impacts, but we're not really seeing it at the scale of macroeconomic level. We're not seeing mass job displacement. >> Harry, last word to you. And we're not going to see these headlines today I get it. But I you're going to see it probably over the next week. You're going to see slowing job market unemployment rate up. And people suggesting some form of 2025 recession, mid mid 2025, late 2025. It's just going to happen. Do you see anything in this report or in other data that you watch that would suggest that is a possibility or they're just living in a different world? >> No, I think there are lots of pieces of this report that are quite troubling and suggest that recession risk is certainly non-trivial in the next 12 months, particularly if you look, for example, at the very sharp fall we had in the number of people working temporary help jobs in the service sector that normally falls before recessions, it's falling. Or you look at the number of people working part time because they can't find a full time job. It's trending up. Often what happens before a recession or, you know, you look at the number of permanent job losers also that continues to trend up. So there are signs of cracks. There are signs of weakness. Is it a recession or is it just a soft patch? That's the question. Our view is it's probably just a soft patch because you look at the health of the corporate sector, it's in very good shape. Throwing off free cash flow margin expansion is good. Profits are trending up. You don't tend to get recessions when company company health is really good, like it is today. In fact, what you get often is volatility and equity markets dying a death and that's what we've been seeing this year. It's what we saw in 2017. In 2013 and other times when corporate sector risk has been very low. >> Daniel Zhao, Harry Colvin and Steve Sosnick, thanks for waking up early for us on this day after July 4th. Appreciate it. Have a good weekend. All right. The health care sector added 49,000 jobs in June, down from the 68,000 health care jobs added in May. And senior health care reporter Anjali Khemlani has been digging into the numbers. >> Anjali that's right Brian, we know that of course, the health care jobs have been really adding at a at a quite a clip in the last several months, but now we're seeing this downturn in the monthly average 64,000. We saw 22,000 jobs added in the health, ambulatory health care services and 22,000 at hospitals. And those have been the really the key areas of jobs added for the last several months. I've been looking into what has been happening in the last year. We saw those blowout numbers month over month for the last year since April, really of last year. And what is the story behind the story? Is really that we've seen a high turnover within the sector, and that's been one of the drivers of these job gains, things like burnout, misaligned demand and supply between where jobs are and where jobs are being applied, as well as payer squeeze from the insurers. You know, paying less and causing a little bit of a squeeze there for those hospitals. And those health care systems. Meanwhile, costs are rising for those very same facilities with these burnout. So it's really just a bad cycle right now for the health care sector. And this could be why we see a little bit of fluctuation. We do know that there are also shifts in where doctors and health clinicians are going, where it goes to maybe telehealth or other areas where there is better work life balance. So those are all playing a role in what we see with these numbers month over month. And we did see a bit of a dip this month after really some record numbers. If you take a look at sort of the history over it, but definitely keep an eye on on how this pans out for the rest of the year. All right. >> Anjali, thank you so much. Keeping close tabs on the health care sector. Now let's take a look at how futures are digesting the latest data. The latest jobs report coming in better than expected on headline unemployment did tick higher. Just a little bit here. Let's take a look at the Dow futures right now. Up by about one tenth of a percent. We're just a little over 30 minutes from the start of trade on this holiday abbreviated trading week. But this on this Friday we're seeing Nasdaq 100 futures move higher by about one tenth of a percent. S&P 500 futures up by about one tenth of a percent. As well. We'll round that off to also want to take a look at some yields here this morning. As we did see a little bit of a move on the five and the ten year, of course the 5 to 10 and 30 are down here. But we are seeing of course once that report hit, you did see a little bit of a dip on the five year yield right now sitting at about 4.26 overall and moving lower by about 1.4. But ultimately here we're going to take a quick look at some of these sectors. Just before we wrap things up, as we're taking a look at of course, that was the previous move that we had seen on the abbreviated trading session that was Wednesday. And then now these numbers underneath that are in these nice little boxes for you. As of right now, it looks like we've got the most gain taking place in consumer discretionary here. Intraday or extended hours premarket up by about 6/10 of a percent. And then lastly we know you like heat maps. So we'll give you a little bit more of a check in on some of your favorite tech stocks here before the opening bell. As we're taking a look at a little bit of slippage here for some big names in Microsoft, Apple and Nvidia, fractional moves lower is all as of right now. So we'll keep close tabs on that. Amazon looks to hold on to some of those gains going into the start of trade. And meta, which has had a rocker of a year as of right now. We're seeing that as of right now, higher by about nine, we'll call it one tenth of a percent year to date. You're also seeing that up by about 44. So I'll toss it back over to you. >> Yeah. While you're at that board Brad. Just really good note real quick from Torsten Slok over at Apollo said the key discussion markets will be whether this cooling will accelerate to the downside. Of course, in the jobs market or stay elevated because of still high financing costs or interest rates. Interesting stuff from there from Torsten. All right. Nonetheless, later this hour we will speak with acting U.S. Labor Secretary Julie Su to get her take on the jobs report. We'll be right back. It's 9 a.m. here in New York City. I'm Brian Sozzi, alongside Brad Smith. This is Yahoo Finance's flagship show The Morning Brief. >> That's right. Stock futures rising. This morning after the June jobs report shows some welcome signs of cooling here. Finance's Jared Blikre. And as Foray and Akiko Fujita have more. >> That's right the U.S. labor market adding more jobs than expected during June. Nonfarm payrolls came in at 206,000 beating expectations of 190,000. Meanwhile, unemployment unexpectedly rose, hitting its highest level since 2021. In a welcome sign of cooling for the jobs market and crypto crashing, Bitcoin plummeting down past the 55,000 mark. >> The spiral sparked by news that the collapsed crypto exchange Mt. Gox has begun making repayments of Bitcoin to creditors. Altcoins including Ethereum and Binance Coin are also getting hit hard on the news in all the markets are anticipating Mount Gox will distribute around $9 billion worth of coins to users, an influx that's expected to spur significant selling action. Today's action has Bitcoin on track for its worst week in more than a year. >> And the UK's opposition Labor Party securing a landslide victory in a July 4th election, unseating the conservative majority after 14 years. London listed stocks climbing on the results led by housebuilder names. The new leadership welcomed by Wall Street, names. Goldman Sachs upgrading its growth forecast for the nation after labor sweeping win and RBC Capital Markets noting UK home builders could be in for a new age if labor election promises turn into policy. >> Futures are higher after the U.S. economy added more jobs than expected in June. Here, the data slightly tamping expectations for a rate cut in September over 71% of traders are betting on a cut all in, but that's down from before the report's release. For more on this, let's bring in Justin Bergen, who is the Ameriprise Financial vice president of equity research here. Justin, thanks so much for taking the time here this morning. You know, let's just start off with the data that we saw come through in the jobs report here. I want to get your read in on it. And what this signals for the pathway for rate cuts. >> Yeah absolutely. Thanks for having me this morning. I think one of your previous guests made a comment in fireworks that I hope you saw him yesterday, because it wasn't this morning. It was just a good report. Right? I mean, you're adding over 200,000 jobs in a month. Your unemployment rate ticking up slightly and your wage growth, that's 3.9, right where it should be. So if you could put if you could put it in a what what could go right that out of that report it sure beats what we got last month when the when there were quite a few fireworks, >> Justin here. Good to see you. I'm just going through, the street reaction on this report. When do you see or do you see an acceleration in the economy, maybe because of higher stock prices and tighter credit spreads. That's some of the chatter that's coming into my box right now. >> Yeah. So actually, GDP is slowing, right? So if you look at where we were last year, our consensus forecast this year is for 2.1% growth. That's down from three. And a half. But if you if you look back at some of the previous periods, you go to 2018, 2019 when you had similar 2% GDP growth, and then you had wage or, unemployment, that was above where it is today. You had job growth below where it is today, and consumer spending was still strong. So to have a 2, GDP growth rate for the economy, that's that's a good place to be in. >> Why is the unemployment rate going up? >> You the fed wants jobs, job growth to slow plain and simple. It's not great. You have some of the low end consumers that are being stressed. But you do have it. You can't. Unemployment rate for the last 50 years has been the average is well over 4.5. So to be at this, you know, below 4% for too long, it's very, very, very hard to have that type of wage growth. >> What are the other characteristics then of normalization? If we're getting back to trend on markers such as the unemployment rate. >> Yep. So I think if you look at consumer spending that's coming back down, you have the savings rate that is coming back down. And I think if you kind of focus and shift at the earnings growth, you have 11% earnings growth. Estimates for this year. That's fantastic. Right? I mean Q2 you're looking at 8.8% growth. That's that's excellent growth for corporate profits. And you look at the profit margin. That's a 12% expectation for Q2. That's actually up quarter over quarter. >> Is this report bullish or bearish for stocks. Pardon. Is this report bullish or bearish for stocks I think it's bullish absolutely bullish I think if you look at that's that's what economists want to see is this slowing gradual slowing of the economy. >> You have a job market that's not imploding. Consumer spending still continues to be strong. Corporate profits are strong. That that's why the market keeps hitting highs. And if you have this, ten year coming down from 450 where it is now, four 3428 that that's what they want. Lower rates is good for the economy. >> Markets tend to look out, you know, six months. They're pricing in the rate cuts as as best as we're kind of looking across the moving dial of the probability for those rate cuts. As well through the rest of this year. And even the frame of mind of how many we might see to start off next year, how, how and what would be a big impact for this market that would that would catch it by surprise, perhaps. >> Yeah. So I think the question is not if there's going to be rate cuts, but when. And the other question is why. Right So if we have to start cutting rates faster than expected because the economy is falling off a cliff, that's negative. If we're cutting rates because we have this normalization in the economy, that's good, right? You can have that glide path that's trending lower and still continue to 2. Growth rate for GDP. >> Has the president's policies been good for the job market? >> At a 3.9% that we've had for quite some time, kicking up to 4.1, I think policies in general have been supportive of employment and again, if we can have that continue to trend a little bit at the four, two, four, three, where our expectation is for unemployment to be 4.2% at the end of the year, that's that gradual decline. So I think if you if you look at where the policy of the administration are, you have been supportive of, unemploymen. >> All right. We'll leave it there. Justin Burgin Ameriprise Financial Vice President of Equity Research. Good to see you. Appreciate it. >> Thank you. >> The Bitcoin plunge collapsed exchange Mount Gox I think I said that right is beginning to reportedly pay back the nearly $9 billion in bitcoin and bitcoin Cash it owes to customers from its bankruptcy in 2014, stoking fresh investor fears that the customers might quickly sell the coins. Yale Finance's Jared Blikre has more on this. Jared. >> Brian, I'm guessing you're not a mount Gox customer, but good news for them. Over the next 60 to 90 days, they're going to get repaid. This was a bankruptcy that happened. Well it was actually a theft, a heist that led to a bankruptcy about ten years ago. This was a Japanese based exchange. They lost over 700,000 coins. Bitcoin specifically. And now the trustee is set to return about 140,000 to the market. Now, what you're seeing behind me, this is just one day's price action. A lot of dark red on your screen. Bitcoin down 4, Ethereum down 6. Here's what happened over the last four days. Bitcoin is down 12.78. And I've been showing this year to day chart saying that anything that happens between these two lines here, this was a price consolidation channel. Just sideways movement. It doesn't matter now that we've broken down below. Well that does matter. As you might know, we actually broke below this support level one time. That was a false breakdown. Is it another false breakdown? Looking on the length that prices traveled right now it doesn't look like it, but I guess that is a possibility. You just need another day's price action to really confirm this. So we'll get that over the weekend. But what does this mean for the rest of the crypto enterprise? The rest of the crypto universe? Well, a lot of times Bitcoin is a leader here. So we're also seeing Ethereum get down to the bottom of its support range. But you'll notice it hasn't breached it just yet. Kind of supports the idea that if Bitcoin were to recover very quickly, you could say, okay, that's another false breakdown. But again, that's not my base case. Before we go, I do want to check out crypto stocks. This morning I'm going to put on some early quotes here. And you can see lots of downside action. Hut trading 7.5% to the downside. Master strategy down 7. So just a lot of negative vibes in the crypto sphere today. All right. >> Well at least we have the positivity from Jared Blikre always Jared thanks so much. Appreciate it. Britain's labor Party celebrate a landslide victory in the UK prime Minister elections. For more on what this means for markets, let's get to Yahoo Finance's Akiko Fujita. Hey Akiko. >> Hey there Brad. We heard from New Prime Minister Keir Starmer just a short time ago outside Downing Street, setting expectations for how quickly his government is likely to move on key issues. >> Now, our country has voted decisively for change for national renewal and a return of politics to public service. >> Starmer saying that changing a country is not like flicking a switch. This will take a while and that expectation certainly reflected in the markets, with the FTSE now paring those initial gains we saw at the start of trade. Now we are seeing the pound firmly higher against the dollar, close to the high for the day as investors look for more political stability in the UK. This was a sweeping victory for the Labor Party, unseating the conservative majority for the first time in 14 years. Much of that the result of voter discontent over the politics of the ruling party. But there is no question the economy played a key role here as well. The UK, already the worst performing economy among G7 nations with few expectations for a turnaround. Just a few months ago, the OECD slashed the outlook for the UK growth to just 0.4. This year and 1% next year. Brexit the Covid hangover, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, all significant drivers for the slowdown with voters also expressing anger over the lack of housing, as well as the wait times for National Health Service. Among other issues. The election outlook already leading to a key upgrade from Goldman Sachs this morning. The investment bank now saying it expects Labor's fiscal policy to provide in their words, a modest boost to demand growth in the near term, raising its forecast for growth by 0.1% over the next two years. But Goldman also warning about potential risks stemming from increases in taxation and the impact that could have on incentives to invest, and also Labor's push to reduce net migration. Goldman says that could tighten labor supply. We did hear from outgoing Prime Minister Rishi Sunak acknowledging the challenges ahead for the UK, although he did highlight the UK's return to 2% inflation in line with the banh guys. One more thing to point out here voter turnout. Turnout was at 60. That's close to a record low. And while the center left party is celebrating its victories today, Nigel Farage remember him? The driving force behind Brexit. He also found some success here in the election. His upstart right leaning reform UK taking a lot of the Tory votes, with Farage becoming a member of Parliament on his eighth try. Brad. >> All right. Akiko, thanks for keeping close tabs on those election outcomes for us. Appreciate it very much everyone. President Biden, facing pressures from Democratic donors as he faces a key stage in his reelection campaign. Yahoo Finance's senior columnist Rick Newman, joins us here to discuss ahead of what's going to be a big weekend for Biden here, Rick laid out for us. >> Well, the latest news is that some major Democratic donors are saying they are not going to donate any more money until Biden steps aside. Abigail Disney, one of those people and some of these donors are setting up separate funding mechanisms for somebody other than Joe Biden there. They're not necessarily picking a candidate. They're just saying Biden needs to step aside and they're putting their money behind that. Abigail Disney is one of them. Mike Novogratz, the crypto billionaire, another one, Reed Hastings is another, who are behind this? This just feels like a sinking ship, guys, you know, it's one little development after another, and, we're we're now getting to the point where Democrats are at war with themselves. And that is about as bad a scenario as you can have going into the final months of a presidential election. So, Biden still saying I'm in it to win it, he's going to do this interview today with George Stephanopoulos of ABC. I mean, the whole point of this interview is for Biden to take some tough questioning and be able to demonstrate that he's up to it, that he can explain away his terrible debate performance. But I got to tell you guys, it feels like the air is coming out of the Biden campaign. >> Rick, 206,000 jobs created last month. >> Is this. Is this jobs report a good thing for Biden or at this point, voters can care less. They just want to see him put some sentences together. >> Job creation under Biden has been terrific. I mean, Biden says all the time we've had the most jobs created during my administration in the history of the country, which is true, and it doesn't matter. I mean, he gets no credit for that from, from voters, people care way more about inflation at this point. Inflation has been coming down, but Biden is losing the narrative here. I mean, when, you know, he he's now on the defensive constantly about his age. I think I saw another poll that said almost 80% of Americans now think Biden is too old to run, and he's only a couple years older than Trump. But, people don't think that Trump is too, too old to run. So, the jobs report, Biden will be talking about it for sure. But it's just not the thing that voters are paying attention to right now. >> Is there anybody else right now who Democrats are looking at and ultimately has enough of an economic standing in order to signal to voters out there who are going to be thinking about issues like inflation, going to be thinking about issues like the broader employment trajectory right now that could ultimately have that candidate kind of come out on top in any scenario. >> Well, if Biden says he's not running, the immediate front runner for the candidacy is Kamala Harris. It would be hers to lose just by virtue of the fact that she's the vice president and her name is on the campaign. Plus, she would easily be able to, use all the money that the, Biden-Harris campaign has raised. So it would be hers to lose. And I think my way of thinking about it is. She would she would, basically take the hand off of a pretty good economy. And if she played it right, she wouldn't she would not have the baggage of inflation. So, I mean, Republicans have called it Biden inflation. They don't call it Harris inflation. So she would be able to say, hey, we're going to have a fresh start here, you know, and by the way, don't blame me for inflation. The thing that bothers voters the most. So she would get a fresh start whether she would, you know, effectively capitalize on that? I have no idea. I don't think anybody knows. But that's the way I would see it developing. >> Yeah. Financial columnist Rick Newman, we'll talk to you soon. Appreciate it guys. All right, much more market analysis straight ahead. Stay tuned. You're watching the morning brief. Shares of Nvidia. Slightly in the red. The company has been bouncing back this week after a volatile period. Nvidia did get hit with a downgrade this morning from New Street Research analysts at the firm saying they see limited further upside and are downgrading the stock from buy to neutral. Well, Brett, everybody is trying to be a hero on Nvidia. All I know is I go back to a recent JP Morgan story and it is very report is very simple. Demand continues to outstrip supply for Nvidia chips. And as long as that continues to happen, there might be some volatility in the name. How do you dump this stock. And there are beasts. They're on a path to potentially $10 trillion market cap. >> You know it's not a stock particularly. That's just one that you talk about where it's just okay. Yeah. Just trade this name. No it's it is an investment decision that has now been regarded as such for a long term kind of hold type of mindset. It's not something that you're trying to day trade at this juncture, even though it got a little bit more affordable after this. The, stock split that took place in a couple of weeks back. >> Last thing you want to hear. So you call up your money manager and they tell you, hey, I hope you had a great July fourth. Yeah, I'm gonna be lightning the load on Nvidia. Who the hell wants to hear that? I mean, that is the great way to lose your job and lose client money. I mean, that is it's tough to sell a stock that everybody is rightfully very bearish on for strong fundamental reasons. I mean, the AI chip rollout, this is not late nineties.com stuff with companies not making any money. This is real stuff. Real technology and this company continues to be, the leader by by years I mean by years. They're leading other companies. >> Well, the interesting kind of annexation or at least dot.com bubble analogy that Nvidia has been drawn to time and time again now is actually Cisco. And if you go back and take a look at their stock chart, one of the things that you'll see that is quite similar here is this hockey stick type run up during the.com era. And then it had to grow into its valuation. Now of course it declined precipitously in the aftermath of that bubble bursting. But then eventually over years, was able to grow into that valuation because people could see the applications and the use cases for the technology that they were bringing to the market. It's the same thing with Nvidia here. We just don't have a million chip data center right now because it's not built up yet. And so that's perhaps the next part of this generative AI trade. When we talk about picks and shovels, it might literally be picks and shovels building up some of these data centers, picks and shovels, putting some of the electricity in the ground or overhead or however you're building that grid out in order to make sure those data centers have the necessary utility and power that they need. >> Now, right on, Brad. And, you know, I think you have to be thinking about it's not just the Nvidia trade, it's the whole ecosystem. You had a great conversation on my podcast opening bid cheap plug for myself there with Brooke Dane, a portfolio manager at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. You know, his I think, view was sure you can continue to own Nvidia, but think about some of the companies that are trying to compete with the likes of Nvidia over the next 5 to 10 years. It's a marvel. It's a Kayla. It's a micron. None of these companies are really going to take material market share from Nvidia today. But as long as they can sell that sizzle to investors, those stocks might rise along with Nvidia. >> I listen to your podcast every time. I appreciate that. I mean, I sit right next to it. >> So you don't download it. You don't download it. >> I mean, look, I was in the pilot episode and then I never got invited back. I'm waiting to come back. >> We could come back anytime you want. Okay. >> Done deal. Tomorrow. >> Yeah. Sounds great. Yeah. All right. >> I won't be here, but I will be. We're tracking shares of Samsung this morning as well. They're jumping to their highest level since January 2021, after the company posted its fastest pace of sales and profit growth in years, thanks in large part to explosive demand for. Get this artificial intelligence. Take a look at shares. They're up by about 3% here. I mean larger question of and we've been trying to wrap our minds around this for a good bit of time. And it seems like late this year we'll get the first true glimpse of how consumers gravitate towards some of this technology at their fingertips, not just because of what Samsung is putting into the market, but also because of what Apple has promised they're going to be bringing to the market, as long as you have a certain iPhone or higher. >> Yeah, Samsung doesn't really get me excited. I look at these Samsung results and I'm like, okay, they're selling some cool, expensive phones. What is the read through to Apple? And I think Apple's just having a recovery story in China. I think it's playing out. And that's my only read off of here off Samsung. >> I mean, the biggest thing with Samsung to remember though is the market share that they account for globally within the handset devices. I mean, Apple has been trying to and Apple saw its highest kind of operating system marker at just shy, barely shy of 20% globally. Last year. Samsung, for the Android operating system and how well that is able to be deployed to so many other handsets. Samsung is still able to hold its own, but it's seen its market share waning as a result of Apple's ability to take on more market share globally. Focusing in on China, focusing in on India and some of that international growth more specifically here. But it's going to come down to the price point right now that consumers are willing to actually buy into some of these new generative, AI inducing or you know, I don't even know what to call it. >> You don't know. It's like so exciting. I saw a video and it looked real on X this morning. It looked like maybe the new iPad. Yeah. And it was somebody doing mathematical calculations on it. And so they're writing 20 plus 20. And then all of a sudden the answer comes out, why did I have this in like the mid 80s when like elementary school. But my takeaway was I'm watching this on my iPad. Fair enough. But I'm watching this in real time. Bullish Nvidia bullish micron bullish Marvell I mean that's that's the whole Nvidia trade right there in real time. The ability to write on something and it just gets the answers come out I mean it's awesome isn't it wild that one day we're going to have to tell our kids I remember what the world was like before the internet. >> Yeah. Well, that assumes that one's going to have kids. >> All right. On the other side, we'll have that opening bell. I'm not. I'm probably just not just the reality. Just the reality. No, I'm just not. We'll have that opening bell on Wall Street on this jobs report Friday. You're watching the morning brief. Do not go anywhere like a little saucy running around. >> Not going to happen. >> All right. We are just seconds away from the opening bell here on Wall Street and in Midtown Manhattan at the Nasdaq. And we're taking a look at the futures this morning on this jobs Friday, we should note, which has us back here in office and has us tracking the futures activity, which largely kind of unchanged since we got that report earlier this morning. >> That's all we got. I mean, we had 206,000 on jobs. You have downward revisions to the prior two months, now lots of guests we've talked to so far looking for rate cuts. Bread. Yeah. >> All right. Here we have a live look at the opening bell sounding off on this Friday, July 5th. You got the great folks from Tongwei Technologies ringing the opening bell at the Nasdaq. Some Funfetti there on a Friday. And then you have the United States Merchant Marine Academy ringing the opening bell at the NYSE. All right. Great group of folks there on screen. Let's pivot to the markets here as we're taking a look at the major averages here and getting things recalibrated. But as of right now you can see the Dow Jones Industrial Average beginning the day flat just barely to the downside here. We've seen some hyper waffling out of the gate and even coming into the start of today's activity. You like that one? >> I love it. >> You say hyper waffling that I just can I do this? I don't want to be a prop this time. I just want to like touch that. I haven't been to touch screen in a while. Nasdaq I think that is the main focus point today, folks. What is leading stocks like Apple and Nvidia do after this report, which really I think strongly suggests of a rate cut in September. Theoretically, Apple Faang stocks Nvidia. They should do well with that type of backdrop. >> Let's take a look at some of those stocks too. If you hit that heat map button we'll go for it I got you I haven't been doing I haven't done this in a while. >> What do you want me to take? >> I mean, look, we're not going to rust off here and we're doing quite well. Let's take a look at the consumer discretionary. We've got 12 or 11 sectors pulled up on your screen here for you folks. Consumer discretionary leading the pack as of right now. Let's take a look at that year to date chart up by about 5.5. And of course as we're taking a look at some of the other red spots here, unfortunately you've got energy pulling up the caboose. You mentioned some tech stocks I know you like tech stocks. Let's give you some tech stocks here. Take a look no further than Nvidia I'm sure it was the talk of the barbecue for a lot of people yesterday. Oh yeah. They're just trying to figure out okay what is this I trade. Does it still have legs here. Riveting up 157% year to date. >> Yeah. Good stuff. All right, Jared, let's get over to, really? You are the true master of the touchscreen. I'm just here. I don't know, marking up time. >> Thank you. Let me just conjure this up here, and we got. We'll get the sector action behind me. I like how you were looking at Xly. Consumer discretionary has been the story of the week. Let me just put a four day look on our sector heatmap. You can see XLE is the leader up 3.2% Xlk. That's tech close second behind. But you were just looking at that year to date chart. It is now broken through the upper end of its range. You take a look at a five year. It is still not eclipsing its prior year 2021 highs, but looks like it's on its way. So what are the some of the biggest stocks in there. Well guess what. In consumer discretionary it is Tesla and also Amazon and Tesla here. This is a four day look Tesla up 25.8% Amazon up 3. So Tesla really doing a lot of the heavy lifting. This is a five year chart. And one of the things that stands out Tesla is now just breaking out of this very long trend line that goes all the way back to its record highs in 2021. So this is a technical achievement for it doesn't mean that it's going to race higher right away. But this is a first step to a trend change around which is higher highs and higher lows. So now we want to see a higher low as Tesla eventually comes back. Let's put this to an intraday view I want to jump over to our meme stocks because I was tracking costs on, on Wednesday. And that stock was up over 100. Just an incredible run. Let me put our equal weight here. And we can see cost is in the number one spot. It is up 44. Just over 40% now fluctuating pretty wildly. Here's a five year look what stands out is this this little jump here which is actually a pretty big jump. Nothing near the jump. We saw in 2021. Nevertheless, I want to put this in context. I'll put a five day look. You can see there's the stock up 259% in five days. Doing what meme stocks do best, confounding the fundamental analysis. I would say Jared, thank you so much. >> Appreciate it. Keeping tabs on the market movements that we're seeing out of the gate here on the day. Let's get back to Bitcoin here. Bitcoin sliding after Mount Gox begins repaying users in flaming fears that customers might quickly sell the coin to discuss what investors should do. Now we've got Lucy Gesmer, who is the token Bay capital founder and managing partner. Lucy. Great to have you here. Thanks for joining us here on this topic. I mean, what should we anticipate that some of the holders or holders may do as a result of Mount Gox now? >> So Mount Gox has obviously been tracked, you know, pretty thoroughly in Bitcoin circles. So it's an anticipated event, and there's also been a lot of trading of the claims prior to, you know, all of this being sorted out, on behalf of the creditors. So, it's really up for debate as to whether 9 billion is going to sort of flow onto the markets in one go. And it's actually highly unlikely. So any selling is likely to be staggered over a period of time. And actually, there's a question as to whether there will be any sellers, because as I say, it's likely that many of the claims have already traded hands and people already are either going to hold Bitcoin for the longer term, or they're going to sell. But it's unlikely to happen all at once. So it should be managed and the market should be able to absorb any supply coming through. >> Lucy, there's I see a lot of chatter on the on the various boards, on the various crypto boards, very focused on what happens with this presidential election. Let's just handicap this. Let's say President Biden does decide to drop out. Someone else swoops in and takes his place. Who's the better person for the cryptocurrency market? >> What's interesting is there are a lot more sort of pro crypto voices in Congress, in US politics. And, you know, we're getting so many more cheerleaders. And that's largely driven by this stand with crypto movement and the funding that they're actually getting from a coordinated attempt by all the big players in the crypto industry to really change the perception around crypto, really get people rooting for the new technology. And, you know, the infrastructure for a new generation of financial markets and for, you know, politicians to see it as such and actually see it as an enabler and a way for the American economy to sort of get ahead and grow and so I think they're having amazing success this year in doing so, there's a lot of funding coming through, and there's a lot more voices. And it's not just the funding, but it's the education as well with all these crypto groups that are going to DC and really explaining and sitting down with lawmakers to set out what this technology really can offer American people coming into. >> And even on the first half of this year, the crypto playbook was was quite simple. It was ETF approvals and it was the halving. What does the second half playbook look like for crypto. >> So I think okay, we've had a bit of a sell off recently. I think with every wave that we have, we've got new buyers that are unused to this volatility. So it's not particularly nice experience to buy into the ETF in January. Be really thrilled with 30% or 50% gains and then be down 30. You know, that takes some getting used to. So we've got new buyers entering this market, and trading over the summer is typically quieter. Right. You've got the quieter trading months over the summer. And Bitcoin is no exception, particularly now that we have Bitcoin listed on the national stock exchange. So there is going to be a degree of correlation there, the big question is what's Bitcoin going to do when everyone comes back to work in the fall and the markets start picking up again? That's really when we can actually tell if Bitcoin is going to be in a deeper correction than is actually typical for most of the cycle. And to this point, we are still seeing very typical moves in Bitcoin's price. >> If someone wanted to use this pullback, Lucy as a buying opportunity, what should their first stop be, >> so well, it changes every time they break below. So it was 56. Now people are saying 48, listen I think a great investment advice, although I cannot give investment advice, is to dollar cost average your way into the asset class. You have to take a long term view on Bitcoin. You have to look at the fundamentals. If you're investing for six months or a year, that's going to be, you know, a pretty tricky trading strategy because the market goes through boom bust cycles. So the best thing to do with Bitcoin is dollar cost average in and hold it for the long term, because we are likely to see another cycle down towards the end of 2025 into 2026. As we get another cycle. When these cycles really arise out of this Bitcoin mining, Bitcoin halving, which happens every four years. So I think as investors, you should really take a view on Bitcoin. Do you believe it's going to be a fundamental trading tool. Do you believe it's going to be the equivalent of the US dollar in a global digital economy? Do you think more emerging markets and governments are going to start stockpiling Bitcoin as a reserve asset? You know, take a view on what you actually think the utility of Bitcoin is because there are many different narratives associated with Bitcoin. And you know, just buying it because you think it's going to go up, I would suggest having a longer term investment horizon. >> Lucy Moran, who is the token Bay capital Founder and Managing Partner. Thank you so much. >> Thank you. >> Coming up, all that glitters, gold rising today set for its second straight week of gains that took you back to elementary school for some of us. But can the commodity continue its hot streak? We'll discuss on the other side. >> Interesting moves happening in the commodities markets. Oil is trading near its highest since late April. And on track for a fourth straight week of gains. And gold is headed for back to back weekly gains. Scott Bowers, the CEO of Prosper Trading Academy. Scott, good to see you here after July 4th. Talk to us about gold. Are the fireworks just beginning in that commodity? >> Yeah. You know, it's all about the dollar and it's all about rates and the trajectory with the weak eco data that we've received over, you know, probably the last 4 to 8 weeks, the jobs number this morning as well, the trajectory has now been that the fed is more than likely cutting in September. >> Personally I think maybe they even need to consider July though that's off the table for now pretty much. But the eco data has been weak and gold has really followed, you know, the path of the dollar in an inverse relationship. So, to me, when we see how the dollar has hovered around 105 or so over the last weeks or so, to me it has not been because of dollar strength. It's been because of other currency weakness. So now that we're starting to see, you know, this eco data really get softer here, I really think that we're going to see a dollar that that probably challenges 104 sooner rather than later. That's good for gold. That definitely has has been some of the impetus as we're seeing gold really trying to attack those all time highs again. >> So God, Scott, isn't this the most I would say a great place to hedge your bets if you're concerned about the election. Is gold right now the ultimate safe haven play? >> I don't know what the ultimate is, but yes, it is a safe haven play both from from the risk off standpoint and quite frankly, from the dollar standpoint, from from rates standpoint. It is there you know, potential downside. Of course there is. But I do think that gold is a great place to be here. You know, if you look over the last year or so and you saw the amount that central banks around the world were piling into gold and buying it and storing it, it's off the charts. It's unbelievable. So I really think that the downside potential is gold is a lot less than what the upside could be over the next six months or so. >> Yeah, UBS had put that within their election watch 2024 as well, saying that they think gold represents an interesting opportunity, lifting their stance on the asset to most preferred given some of the concerns about geopolitical polarization, inflation in the U.S. fiscal deficit and whatnot. You know, Scott, how high do you believe gold can go if we're talking new all time highs, what is the marker that you believe that it could move to and perhaps even through? >> Well, that all time high what we're about $80 away. $70 away. It's you know, 24 or 50 ish or so. You know, if you look technically at the charts here, there's a pattern that could really take us up to 26, 50, 2000, 700. I don't think we would get there that quickly, though. Listen, with all of the geopolitical risk out there and you know, the added risk around our election right now are added, I should say, uncertainty around our election here. If we break those old highs here, there's really from a technical standpoint, not a lot of resistance there. We could see a pretty quick move up. >> Scott, how are you. You know, outside of gold and commodities, how are you trading into the week and what trades do you have on? We have a president giving a very key interview at 8 p.m, has a couple campaign stops on Saturday, and Sunday. Monday you get the sense that something big could happen, and you could see a lot more volatility in markets. >> So I have been long and continue to be long. Full disclosure here. Some downside put spreads in spy in in the QS on long some VIX upside calls. Obviously you know those haven't really worked over the last several weeks or months. But you know something that that I always discuss with my clients and something that I always, you know, talk to people about is buying that insurance when it's cheap. Right. We all want to go out and price our homeowners our auto policy, you know, our any insurance. And we want to get a bargain. We want to get it on sale. Protection is cheap right now in the marketplace. Whether you go out a month, whether you're going out six months. So what I'm telling people is you want to stay in the market, you want to, you know, capture this grinding move to the upside. Fantastic. Buy the cheap protection. And if you have to give back, you know, a little bit of half a percent of 1, whatever it is fine. But there's this old trading adage of buy when you can and not when you have to. And what that means is, once something happens to the market, once as as you just said, you know, that we're maybe getting set up here for something to happen. It's too late. The cost has has doubled, tripled. So buy that protection when you can. So that is what how I am positioning the day. Trading in the marketplace is fantastic right now. Even though it's summer, we're seeing some volatility in pockets. Overall though, downside protection way too cheap in my opinion. >> Scott great to see you. Thanks so much for joining us here on this Friday. Appreciate it. >> Have a great weekend. >> You too. >> Everyone coming up. We have acting U.S. Secretary of Labor Julie Su joining us to discuss the June jobs report on the other side of the short break. >> It's a jam packed hour. Focusing on the biggest movers and shakers on Wall Street. >> This is market domination and here, every day is game day. >> We have one hour left until the market close. >> It's game time for investors to make their final plays. >> The clock is ticking, and we've got you covered with our quarter by quarter playbook. >> We're bringing you in on all the market action with step by step analysis of our biggest trending tickers and expert insight into the day's biggest headlines. >> We'll bring you the closing bell and get you to the finish line. >> This is market domination. >> Tune in daily from 3 to 4 p.m. eastern. >> With a rich history dating back to the 19th century, Eli Lilly has faced struggles and successes. But a booming market cap has quickly turned it into the biggest pharmaceutical brand in the world. Let's dive into Lilly's biggest moments with Beyond the Ticker. The company was founded in 1876 by Colonel Eli Lilly, a pharmaceutical chemist and union Army veteran. Lilly experienced huge growth before and after World War One, including the expansion of its Indianapolis facility in 1923. The company began selling Elyton to treat diabetes. The world's first commercial insulin product. Then, in 1952, Lilly became a publicly traded company on the New York Stock Exchange. In 1971, Lilly acquired cosmetic brand Elizabeth Arden for $38 million, eventually turning it into a financial success. It sold Arden to Fabergé for $657 million in 1987. Fast forward to 2009, when Lilly faced a fine of over $1.4 billion, the largest in U.S. history for illegally marketing its blockbuster mood disorder drug Zyprexa. It wasn't until 2022 that Lilly hit the jackpot with Tirzepatide, a new type of Glp1 product sold as Manjaro for type two diabetes. It began competing with Novo, Nordisk's, Ozempic, Zep, Bam, the same formula as Manjaro was approved for obesity in 2023 and began competing with Novo Wegovy. The tours appetite drugs have spiked Lilly's stock by nearly 100% in the past year. In 2024, Lilly continues to reach all time highs and is currently the biggest healthcare company in the world, with a market cap of well over $800 billion. Wall Street projects the GLP one alone will net Lilly $13 billion this year. It's why Lilly is on track to make history as the first trillion dollar healthcare company. >> Let's take a look at the markets. We're half an hour into the trading day almost, and taking a look at the Dow. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. The Dow has been trying to make up its mind here early in trade. As of right now it is flat. But to the downside we saw that kind of open up and try to ultimately figure out which way it did want to open ultimately was just basically flat is the way you want to summarize it here S&P 500 though flat to the upside Nasdaq Composite seen some fractional gains there up by about 3/10 of a percent. As I'm taking a look at the Nasdaq 100 on the Wi-Fi interactive here. Meta seems to be leading some of those Nasdaq gains on the day. That's up by about 2.2. Nvidia is actually down by about 1.2. Coming up, everyone we've got acting U.S. Secretary of Labor Julie Su joining us to discuss that June jobs report. Stick around. In the June Jobs report, we saw unemployment tick higher. Smidge there by about one tenth of a percent. Came in at 1 or 4.1. And ultimately wage growth a touch lower. So what does this tell us about the economy? Right now we have Julie Su, the United States acting labor secretary, joining us here on Yahoo Financ. Julie, great to see you here, first and foremost, I just want to get your read in on what we're seeing in this labor economy. And where there are areas that the white House still needs to consider doing even more work. >> Another solid jobs report 206,000 jobs created last month, bringing the total since President Biden's come into office to nearly 16 million. >> The unemployment rate remains at a historic lows. It ticked up slightly to 4.1. But remember before this, it was at or below 4% for the longest stretch since Neil Armstrong stepped foot on the moon. We are looking at not just temporary improvements to our economy, but a national strategy that President Biden brings that has resulted in the most robust recovery from 2020 that could have been imagined. If you recall, on this day in 2020, on the last under the last administration, the unemployment rate was nearly 12, and there was no national strategy to address the economy or the global pandemic. President Biden came in with a national strategy. We've been implementing it. And of course, there's more work to do. We are not going to reverse decades of underinvestment in our nation's workers, in our nation's industries, in growing jobs overnight. But we're on the right track. We're making progress, and we'll keep at it. >> Secretary, what do you say to those Americans that are going to see this report, probably likely over the weekend, and they're going to notice an uptick in the unemployment rate and job growth, slowing down. Do they have reason to be concerne? >> I don't think so. I mean, you know, again, it is a very small uptick. And it remains historically low, I think. What American workers are seeing is investments in their communities, to the tune of $2 trillion under President Biden's investing in America agenda, roads and bridges being fixed, airports being modernized, clean drinking water coming out of faucets, high speed, reliable internet being delivered, a commitment to addressing climate change. All of these are happening in communities. And what that's doing is creating good jobs. And our promise is that every worker who wants a good job should be able to get one. And when I travel the country and our good job summer tour, we're talking about the importance of a good job, what that means to a family, to a community, and why the president is so committed to making sure that everybody can have one. >> The reality is, with wages, even, there's still so many in places here, like here in New York, where you can feel like you have a good job, but the wage still might leave you in what's classified or considered a poverty level. How are we seeing moderation? And in a better scenario, for a lot of people out there, how are we seeing wages continue to move higher and outpace inflation? Because that is a concern for many households. >> Yeah, it's such a good point. So, real wages have outpaced inflation under President Biden. Again, that is not an accident. That was not inevitable. It's because the president understands that we both need to create a lot of jobs, and we need to make sure there are good jobs, good jobs, meaning somebody can make a living wage, support a family, put a little bit away for retirement, as he always says. So you can look your children in the eye, tell them everything's going to be okay and mean it. So the actual quality of the jobs that we're creating are very different. We're focused on ensuring, that people have benefits so they can go to the doctor when they're sick, that there's some real security and when I travel the country and see people entering a community college in order to get a skill to do a manufacturing job that did not exist before or in an apprenticeship program to help build up their own community, I see that hope and security that only comes from a good job, and we need to keep on doubling down on those investments, and that's why we need to keep up the work that we are doing. >> Secretary, this jobs report comes against a challenging period for the president. A couple of key moments coming up for him over the next few days. A lot of Americans are concerned about the president's ability to continue in this role over the next few years, should he win reelection. You've worked closely with the president. Are there concerns well-placed about his ability to do this job? >> I don't think those concerns are well placed at all. I will say I was just with him earlier this week. We announced the first nationwide standard to protect workers from heat. You know, it's hot out here. Everybody knows it. For workers, heat is not just an inconvenience. It's not just a discomfort. It can be a workplace hazard and nobody should have to be afraid that they're going to die on the job because it's too hot. When we can do simple things like shade, like rest, like water. And those are things that are in the first national standard that got done because the president said to me last year, what are we doing to make sure that those workers are protected, you know, you're asking what I'm concerned about. I have the same concerns that the president has. I want to make sure that workers get a fair shake. I want to make sure that we continue to combat the massive gap between CEO pay and frontline worker pay, where CEOs make in a week what workers cannot make. Working several years. We want to bring down the cost of prescription drugs and relieve student loan debt so that people can look into the future with hope. We fought for retirement security. We're putting more money into workers pockets. Just this past week, a million workers got eligible for overtime pay because of this president's economic policies. So I share his concerns that this economy needs to work better for working people, needs to make sure that leaves no one behind. And that's the work that we are very focused on, making sure that we reverse decades in which, you know, this was not the policy. >> And so, as President Biden has listened to working class families and households and tried to do and put forth those efforts that you just ran down the list of, if those same households are expressing concern about the president's ability for another four years to do a very high demanding job, what do you believe the talk would be? And the calculus in that instance? >> I mean, again, what I hear from American workers when I travel is they are grateful that they have a president who finally sees them, who finally understands them, a president that walked the picket line the first time ever in history, a president who supports the right to organize. And we're seeing historic gains for working people, higher wages, benefits, the right to join a union again, those are fundamental. Our president is called Union Joe for a reason. And he understands that when unions do well, the middle class is stronger. We build more pathways for people to feel a sense of security. That is what we are doing. And we know, you know, I know from traveling that that is what people see, and again, we have to continue to deliver and that is why we're on the right path. But we're not finished yet. In fact, we're really just getting started. >> Julie Sue, the United States acting Labor Secretary. Thanks for always making time for Yahoo Finance. We appreciate it. Have a good weekend. >> Thank you. It's always great to be with you. Thank you. >> Coming up, we dive deeper into the June jobs report on catalyst. Straight ahead. >> It is just after 10 a.m. here in New York City. I'm Brad Smith, alongside Brian Sozzi. And Myles Udland is joining the action now as well. At the desk. It's almost like our viewers tweeted in and said there are not enough votes in this in this show. >> Get more. >> All right. Well, we're all here and locked and loaded for you guys. Let's dive into the catalyst moving markets today. >> All right I got some catalyst for you. >> The labor market continues to moderate as June nonfarm payrolls came in below the average monthly gain and unemployment ticked higher. Could the slowdown in hiring be the catalyst the fed needs to slash interest rates in September? I know you like that Myles. >> Well you know speaking of labor, UK stocks rally as Britain's Labor Party unseats the conservatives after 14 years leading the British Parliament. We'll discuss the impact on potential global markets coming up later in the hour. >> Plus it's a critical weekend for President Biden as wealthy Democratic donors say they will pull funding if he does not drop out of the race. We'll discuss the critical weekend ahead for Biden's campaign. >> But first, we have to dive into this June jobs report 206,000 jobs, a little bit above expectations. >> Goldman Sachs very wrong. Looking for 140,000 increase miles. You're you've been digesting these numbers all morning long. What do you think this means to what the fed may or may not do on rate cuts. >> Yeah I mean, the pressure to cut rates in September is clearly building. And it is really starting to feel like when the fed meets in, what is it three weeks from now, four weeks from now, at the end of July, they're going to set the table for a September rate cut. And I was looking at, you know, so the unemployment rate is obviously the real headline here. We see highest unemployment rate since November 2021. And I think if we look at the Dot plot from June. So this is fed forecast. We've talked for weeks now. Fed forecasts suggest one rate cut in 2024. And that's true. But if you look at the way the dots broke you actually have a plurality of fed officials, eight fed officials looking for two rate cuts in 2024. The real change is that you had four officials in June now looking for no rate cuts. And I think what we really see in this cluster of dots for 2024, it's probably not too much of a challenge for Jay Powell to get the fed on board and for fed officials, you know, over the next several weeks, we will have the Jackson Hole Symposium at the end of August, another crucial time for Powell to set the table for policy changes. It's not going to be, in my view, super challenging for Powell to get the rest of the fed on board with the idea that it needs to be a 25 basis rate cut basis point rate cut in September and probably again in December. They'll buy themselves some time to see how the fall plays out, election, etc. but it is starting to feel like it's less and less tenable for the fed to not act when September rolls around. Yeah. >> I mean, look, I'm going to pull up this dot plot on my next barbecue and see how many people I did it yesterday. >> That's why it was so great. >> I mean, I know it was ripping to the upside, especially if you have one of those looking at Nvidia stock charts. >> But at the end of the day, a lot of people just want to figure out, when am I going to actually feel better here with the inflation that I feel like I'm paying more for in grocery stores, where I'm also looking across job prospects and those being available and at the right wage to offset where inflation is persistent in the services part of the equation for themselves, too. >> Well, if we keep it in like markets talk. Right. I think economists are going to are circling the idea. The fed is now behind the curve. So or is looking at being behind the curve meaning to your question Brad a lot of that stuff. You know that horse has left the barn. We know the job market is tougher out there. And it does feel anecdotally like 4.1% understates the tension. Or, you know, kind of the looseness within the labor market despite it being normal beside it being normal. I think there are a lot of folks who especially a certain class of worker, it's like you're on LinkedIn, you're talking to people and it's like quote unquote. No one can find a job right now. It's not entirely true, but it feels like it's tighter or looser. Rather, I keep mixing that up, then a 4.1% unemployment rate and it feels like this notion of, you know, housing costs will get under control, inflation will get under control. It feels like that's over. It feels like we're all like, yeah, not not a great vibe out there in the economy. And I think that's where the fed is going to feel some pressure to act now, because the softening is starting to look a lot clearer. Yeah absolutely. >> All right. Let's bring in our next guest for more on the latest jobs numbers. Beata manthey is the Citi Global equity strategist. Beata, thanks so much for joining us. This morning. I want to get your read in on what we're seeing more largely here on the trend of economic data that's coming in. >> So city economists have been highlighting for quite some time this underlying weakness in the labor market. So under the surface weakness and this is starting to play out and be visible in the in the coming data, especially today. And what that means is there is a silver lining. And city economists view is that we are indeed going to get the first cut out of the fed. This coming September. >> We are how many rate cuts are you expecting from the fed? This year? >> So we are above consensus there. We have, well city economists for the US have three cuts starting in September. >> So your expectation is that inflation from here will continue to slow in large part because of continued slowing job growth. >> Correct. So inflation is slowing down the underlying weakness in the labor market is starting to show off and show up. >> And the fed has a dual mandate. And they are going to act on it. >> With that in mind, as we're taking a look at the probability for a September cut, I mean, what as we're, you know, looking past almost this year because now we've gotten from 6 or 7 cuts that we were talking about coming into this year down to one, maybe two. What does that set up for 2025? >> That's a good question. >> Remains to be seen. We see continuation of cuts into the next year. But of course, as you've mentioned, the market has been changing its mind, a lot this year and has been quite data dependent. So it remains to be seen. We see more cuts coming, coming through in the next year as well. >> You are a global equity strategist, so I would love to go a little bit more global with this conversation. We got to get your reaction to the UK election results. Prime Minister tendered his resignation this morning to King Charles. What can we expect from a majority labor Parliament? >> Well, and most of all European equity strategist. >> So I can tell you much more in detail about what it means for equities. So in terms of the election, very widely anticipated outcome, what you need to know about it, that it's a more business friendly, Labor Party that we are having right now. And in terms of what it means for the equity markets, it's really going to play out number one through rate and number two through sterling. So in terms of growth for the so and our view on on the FTSE 100 or MSI UK, we are not we are more bullish on other markets than this particular one. However within the UK our preferred trade election trade is FTSE 250 versus 100 or small and medium sized stocks versus large size stocks, so they are more exposed to local economy. They have, they are better positioned to benefit from the rate cuts that are coming through, perhaps as soon as August from from Bank of England. They are more exposed in a positive way to potential strength in the pound that we see in the short term. And also what is very important is that they have derated a lot versus large cuts or FTSE 100 over the past two years. They are down, they underperformed 25% since the peak in 2001. Underperformed year to date and they are actually showing a superior EPs growth, double double the one for FTSE 100 or the larger, larger cap. So that's our preferred, trade in the post-election world for, for the UK for those U.S investors concerned about volatility ahead of the election. >> And they don't want to play Europe because Europe is growing very slowly. It's unclear when they when the ECB may come across with another rate cut. Are there emerging markets that investors that U.S. investors could look to for potential alpha. >> So in terms of our global allocation, we are right now overweight the US market, which we have recently, upgraded to overweight immediately in the aftermath of this snap election announced in France, downgraded continental Europe to neutral. >> Emerging markets are already neutral. But within emerging markets, those countries that we like the most are Taiwan, Korea and India. >> I appreciate the insight, Beata manthey, Citi Global Equity Strategist. Good to see you have a good weekend. Likewise, turning to retail, the parent company of Saks Fifth Avenue, HBC, says it will acquire Neiman Marcus Group in a $2.65 billion deal. May I mean, I want to be more excited about this, but I think this has been I've talked to Mark metric before. I think he has been working on this for some time. So this was largely to be expected. But it really it comes against a backdrop of really of a department store space that continues to fall apart. You have Macy's closing hundreds of stores. And I think this is ultimately a play. I think on the e-commerce business for these companies. And then maybe for the off price business, I was going to ask you. >> So I was like, what is the future of the department store business like in general? >> I mean, I think Macy's is giving you a taste of it. It is probably you have 200 to 300 stores open in a locations, the best of the best and everything else just doesn't exist. >> Then just all online. >> It just is online. >> Okay, I was gonna follow up though is like, is there a combined e-commerce business here? And I say it because I find myself as a consumer, and I think the businesses find this as well. Everyone has pretty much everyone now. They would say some of the luxury houses they play with maybe don't have an e-commerce presence, but pretty much everyone does. And I usually have a general idea of what I want. And you know, let's call it e-commerce warehouse type, websites. You know, even the ex-amazon division, it's not the most pleasant experience, like browsing through a variety of brands. I don't really know what I'm getting. So if I'm at a combined Saks Neiman website, I'm going to see some brand. I would probably rather go to that brand's website and figure it out for myself there. It's more coherent inside of a brand. >> That's why the ultimate play here is a Louis Vuitton that is well off its highs. This is a brand that has been able to control their own destiny. They're opening shops. You want Louis Vuitton, you go to a Louis Vuitton store and get that full on experience. It's just a better experience. >> Well, here's the thing. >> The reason that department stores, to your point, did so well was because people didn't know what they want. So what's what's become the kind of modern day resolution for that? For retailers online, it's inferential technology, artificial intelligence, in some cases that tells you what you want and essentially takes your purchase history and is able to aggregate enough information around you to suggest, hey, you're either running low on this or this is where we're going to generate demand in another part of your home or in your lifestyle. And then on top of that, the mall was successful because of traffic. Traffic has shifted to go online or the new mall is essentially on your Instagram app, where you're just searching through there and you get a bunch of ads that get thrown in front of you as if you were walking through a mall and having that discovery process, taking place in a virtual concept instead. >> Yeah, and I think, like, you know, we talk a lot about our own data and the integrity of our data where it goes. But to your point, Brad, I think I've made peace at least, and think a lot of people have, okay, Instagram knows pretty much everything about me. Guess what? Over time they'll probably target me. Something that I will eventually buy. I like it, and I'll be like, you know what? I do like that I do like that. I did want that. Exactly. And that's fine. >> You know, you would have probably you would appreciate, I think, the nuance on this one. I think the story here is, is Amazon being a minority investor in this combined company, as they're not only an investor, but they're also focused on the logistics. If I'm a UPS and Fedex, I'm looking at this. I'm like, well, I'm not really playing ball on logistics. >> The subtext, it's a whole different conversation that we don't have time for. But the whole subtext of the what do you do with these combined e-commerce storefronts? The Amazon experience has plenty of problems that we could go for hours about, and I wonder how the current team, with all the AI pressures, what's going on at AWS, what they do with the retail piece, going forward to make that just like a more Amazon experience? I mean, there's plenty of good things about it, but there are plenty of things about going on Amazon and a lot of other you know, warehouse type e-commerce sites these days. That is not the greatest thing that I've ever experienced. Now >> Well said. All right, coming up, we'll take a look at a few of the trending tickers on Yahoo Finance. Stay tuned. You're watching catalyst. Shares of Tesla in the green this morning. Continuing its comeback after second quarter deliveries. Beat analyst estimates earlier this week. Shares are up over 20% for the past five days, and it's just only in Tesla land. Guys, you'll see a company show declining deliveries. And this is an embraced set of results. I think a lot of the folks right now are just afraid to be short this name into that August 8th robotaxi event. Well, also, the stock was down 40% year to date at its lows in mid-April. >> So if you were short coming into if you were short coming into this year, I think there's probably a, you know, hey, we don't need to press our bets anymore at this point. And as I've been looking at this rally, because an sfra is written three days in a row now, Tesla story for us and the story is kind of just like stock keeps going up. Because you know what? It's worth? Letting people know, hey, stocks still going up. And I'm wondering if there is not an like look at what happened with X, I they raised a bunch of money. There's some bullishness about the general Elon verse. If that's not a part of like the meme part of the Tesla stock as like the purest play on Elon Musk. If things in general for Elon Musk's business interests are looking up, Tesla is the place that you can express that most easily as an investor or as an individual investor who you know, does not have access to things like a SpaceX secondary. >> Well, let's remind folks, too. I mean, he is disappointed at some of these events, the energy. They had an energy storage event. He let people down. I think the stock got hit too. So there's no guarantee that come August 8th, Elon's gonna come out with this mind blowing Uber rival that's going to instantly take market share in under a year. If history is any guide, he won't. >> He won't. What targets has he met? The Cybertruck. Even when it did come out. Lackluster on actually meeting what was promised. Going into the launch of that, I saw my first Cybertruck yesterday. >> Actually, I just I saw the I saw it, but I actually touched it. I touched it, touched the side. >> It was pretty cool. It was a good moment. Was the texture. It's big. It's just smooth. It's weird. It's too big. It's too big, it's too big. It can't fit this thing anywhere on the road. >> They are very big, but you know, the stock is now making its way back towards breakeven for the year. So, you know, look, we can you can kind of hack up the timeframe with Tesla at any point in time and find a good or bad story. >> Well, the robotaxi was supposed to come out in 2020. I mean, this this intact, this entire fleet was supposed to be something that happened four years ago. Now you can give them a little bit of grace, I guess, because of the pandemic. Yeah. But then at what point do you say, okay, you guys promised us this by 2020, we'll give you a, what, one year, two year grace period? >> I just feel like you cannot if you're if you're in this thing, you cannot earnestly sit there and be like, Elon is disappointing me again. It's like that. That story is so well baked. You are just making a long term bet on Elon's vision and the deliverables meeting these certain timelines. That is tough for stiffs to talk about. I mean, I just don't think that can really be part of it. You have to have made peace with that already because it's 2024. He's been at it with this company now for 15, 16 years. >> So added with everybody to SEC his own investors. >> There's folks on the internet. >> Yeah, exactly. >> Yeah. One part of the internet that he owns too. That's right. We're also looking at Apple this morning because we're always looking at Apple, always Evercore ISI reiterating their buy rating and a $250 price target on the stock firm, saying the company had another good month for the iPhone. You're taking a look at shares up by about 1.5% right now, okay. So another good month for Apple. I think it's going to be a larger question, though, of how many people are waiting to get into the new iPhone because of the promises that they were making at WWDC. Is generative AI enough of a demand generation driver for Apple in the next inflection? >> This data is pretty, pretty compelling shipment data up in May, according to Evercore ISI, 40% year over year coming off a growth rate of 52% in April. That's good, suggesting that this acceleration is easing. Concerns about Apple's position in China. China has been a just a weak spot for Apple, at least for the past several quarters. >> You know, I was reading this note and I was thinking about another note we saw from Mike Kantrowitz on Wednesday. But he doesn't want to talk about the S&P anymore. And because the S&P is all I write and I'm reading this note and like, okay, we want to do the AI iPhone upgrade supercycle but go back in time a few months. The story was Apple's not playing in AI. >> They're not even they're totally irrelevant. >> The stock is lagging and you sort of wonder if we start to sour on the AI theme even a little bit in the second half of this year. Wouldn't it be great for Apple to just go back to talking about regular iPhone sales in China in its biggest growth market, and they don't have to worry about AI. They make a ton of money. They pay a dividend, they buy back a ton of stock. It's a safe place as an investor to say, hey, we're overweight Apple. It was not very fun to say that a few months ago because there again, was not quote unquote, an AI play. That story. Obviously, we've seen the stock chart, you know, since late April has really turned around. But being a more conservative entrant within that field and just getting back to the basics of selling, a lot of people, a lot of iPhones and a lot of services related to the iOS system, maybe that's the best play for Apple. Yeah. >> Who would argue with Warren Buffett? I mean, big time holder and Apple guy knows a thing or two. >> Well, somebody else executed the trade and he probably just had to sign off on it. But you know, at the end of the day for Apple, if you go back in the annals of history, they're never going to be kind of over the past two decades, instances where you look at Apple and say they were a first mover in putting technological innovation out there, they see what the market demand profile looks like. They get a sense of what the fair pricing that consumers who have already bought into their ecosystem would be comfortable with, and then maybe say, well, over time, we might be able to charge a little bit more. But they've never been, especially under Tim Cook, never been the one to say, okay, we're going to be first in MP3 players. Or at least that was back when he was CEO or COO. Excuse me. We're not going to be the first ones to be, you know, fully, touch screen phone even under jobs. At that point, there were other instances of innovation where companies beat them to that. And generative AI is another instance where they're being extremely calculated. And I think that's where we didn't hear from them for months, almost a year, essentially. Yeah. On the generative AI front so that they could be conservative. To your point, but calculated as well. >> Yeah. I mean, and you go all the way back to the jobs report today, if the economy is entering a different phase and markets are entering a different phase, isn't it better for you to have a better core business to talk about rather than to say, our story is playing in the next gen of tech, because rates are high, the situation for your core customer base, regardless of what business you're in, is going to be changing isn't just better for Apple to say we're all got our Macs on the table and our iPhones on the table. >> Well, Julie Sue says the job is John Mark's gonna say hot. >> So she's good. >> Well, we'll see. You know, we'll see. All right, let's talk a little bit about what is in our closets. Let's play a fun little game called in or Out. And we're going to talk about three retail names that I know. The three of us all have plenty of exposure to Nike, Lulu and Deckers. Let's start with Nike. And you take it any direction you want. Brad I'll start with you. Nike. Oh, boy, are we in or out? >> I'm still in. >> Okay. >> And are we talking in my closet? >> Are we talking however you want to interpret it? >> However you want interpret it. The stock, you know, the logo, anything? Oh, yeah. >> The iconic swoosh. >> Are you done with this year's Olympic uniforms? >> Yeah. So I think for Nike there are a few things that are alarms for some consumers. Some investors out there, even. And we'll get to the dunks that you're seeing on the screen because that's that's a large portion of it. You know we we've been speaking quarter after quarter, especially with Adrian Yee of Barclays about what needs to happen at Nike. And I wrote up a story earlier this year that still holds true from Adrian and our conversation, talking about they need more innovation. This company needs more innovation. You think about the number of brands that are doing really well at taking market share. On the apparel side, purely because they're able to tap into audience bases that listen to Nike, but also listen to them over platforms like social media. They see all their friends wearing a Gymshark. They see all their friends wearing Halo or Alo. I don't even know how we're pronouncing out. Great. So I was, oh, for two. Sorry. Yeah. So all of these new players have entered into the space, challenged the behemoths that Nike, Adidas, Lululemon even. And I know we'll get to them that they are and ultimately put pressure on them to say, okay, now you have to outinnovate these new, smaller players that are either more ESG minded, that are perhaps even more creative in how they're marketing and go after that same consumer and on a pricing perspective, figure out a way to make sure that as consumers are looking at this discretionary purchase, that they're going to buy into a Jordan shoe that they bought back in 96 and once again here in 2024, or if they're going to wait for something else that's actually worth the $200 US. >> I'm very simple. I'm Richard Nixon, doubt I'm out of Nike, I'm out on Nike and my thesis is very simple one I think CEO John Donahoe has done a terrible job, and I think it's his time to announce a successor. There has been some chatter that you will get the next CEO of Nike coming up within the next year, as should happen. I think he's disappointing investors for the past four quarters in terms of results and guidance. The Street does not like to see this. I think John has held on to this job for too long. Number two, China, I think the inventory levels in China remain too high. The sales results and operating margins in China remain under pressure. And these things, for a business the size of Nike, does not change overnight. Companies probably looking at 2 or 3 more challenging quarters in China before they course correct. So until I see some form of who the successor is for the CEO role at Nike and better results in China, I can't be in this name. >> Just a stat. >> Real quick. Toss up those panda dunks once again here because I got one. >> You're going to stay in. You're just gonna stay in just because you're in I want to talk about my own footwear. >> But Brad continue. >> Number one selling sneaker on Goat and Flight Club. Number one. Most wanted shoe on Goat for the second straight year in a row. Last year in 2023. Average profit margin when it sold on those platforms, 33% people were buying into something that came out back in what, the 80s again. And for higher profit margins, higher markups here. So that is the that's both a gift and a curse. >> I want to know, John, tell me why my new Nike Maxes are peeling. >> I want to know. I just got them and they're peeling and they're garbage. >> So I, you know, did like everybody else. 1819 you know, was like, I need sneakers, right? It's the cool thing to do. And so I have or I had four pairs of ones that I thought were sweet and I wore a pair of the office like a month ago. And I'm like, standing there and I'm looking at my feet. I'm like, what am I doing? I am, I am a father. This is not cool. Like, this is out. Get a pair of Skechers and I just it just doesn't feel it doesn't feel like it. Right. Speaking speaking of it, let's talk about Lululemon. We mentioned Vuri before, so I know they are selling footwear. Maybe more of an apparel play. Brian Sozzi are you in or out on Lulu staying? >> Richard Nixon I and some guys out. I am peacing out on Lululemon. This is very, very simple. If you go into Lululemon's latest 10-q, keyword, the word conversion in the most recent quarter, there was something that happened in Lululemon that I have not seen in some time. It's a major red flag. Conversion rates were down. What does that mean? You go to a store, you leave with nothing because their clothes stink. I think this company is having problems with color fit. They've lost key executive talent. So until I see better, conversion rates from Lululemon usually takes 2 to 3 quarters to course correct that I can't be in this name either. >> Bradley. I mean, the competitive advantage for a while, while you saw that stock rising back a couple of months ago, and now the retreat that we've seen is because consumers are recognizing that they can get the same fabric at different stores for lower prices. And it's uncreative right now. I mean, it's just colors on clothes. >> Yeah, it does feel when I walk into my local Lululemon, of course, I have a local, that it's kind of the same thing. I just sort of reskinned. Now I will I will say I'm still in. I'm still in on Lulu because why the clothes do hold up a lot better than other brands that I've owned. Very close and for my needs, which is basically feeling not like a working stiff, like I'm seated right now. It always meets my needs. And again, I think the durability for my closet has played out over time. And maybe this is the problem for the stock. Me a boring dad who's like, I just kind of want the same thing. It is still kind of the same thing. So this is not great. That's why stock's down 40. Not great for investors. Not great for the story. But as a core customer I'm still in. I'm not really shopping around for alternatives like an aloe or like aviary. Even though both those stores are now just down the mall aisle from I know we gotta get to one more name. >> I was sitting around at the barbecue yesterday, a bunch of 50 plus year old dads. They're all talking about their new Skechers shoes. You got to get the slip ons. They have the, the cushioning 40 about 40, 45 miles get you into these? It could be time. >> My father was Skechers, so they're really good. They're selling me. They're really comfortable. You know what else my father wears? He wears hokas. So let's talk about let's talk about deckers outdoors. Deckers outdoors. Really? The story here is Hoka. The changes that have happened in the technical running footwear space of the last ten years. I would love to do a whole show on. Brian, are we in or out on Hokas? I know you had ons on the other day. Where are we at with the big guys? I am chunky boys at Hoka. >> I am also out on Hoka. He doesn't like anything Hoka the stop button on look, all the shoes, all the all the growth rate I love, I like, I like the shoes, I like the UGG story, like all those things I'm concerned just from a pure stock perspective. >> It has been a monster. >> Monster and the growth rates have started to slow. Even for Hoka, this was a brand a year ago, growing at about 100% year over year. Now it's down about 3,040% everywhere. When you're a growth stock and your growth is slowing, usually not a great setup. >> I'm in on deckers for a different reason though. For Uggs. Uggs for some reason continue to be like the thing that do you have Uggs? I don't, but I know too many people that do in this day and age and I just can't figure it out. Honestly, even. >> Oh, they're so soft. >> Oh, the men's slippers. Brad the slippers are right there. >> So just the spur, is it fur? Is it fur? It's. Yeah. >> Like, what is that I don't know sure. >> It suits your foot. >> So nice. It's just so nice. >> Yeah. I mean, so yeah, it could be alpaca for all I know. Like at the end of the day, I just know I see a lot of people from. >> Yeah. So for some reason they were popular back when I was in middle school and everybody was just like, okay, we're gonna make that cool again. Gen Z is really doing a number on us these days. >> So I would say on balance here, it feels like some of the bigger public names in the athletic apparel space we didn't talk about on, which is sort of the one we in Adidas. It feels like we were mostly out. >> I am concerned I'm concerned that I now see on on the feet of older folks and uncool people. That was usually a telltale sign. >> Hey, you know who just bought look who just bought ons? Just this guy. Oh my gosh, I really I didn't well, I can't see you as this is the worst part I had. >> Well I have there's one model they have and I've had a few pair. I get like one pair a year and I had to refresh. Okay. But it's cloud monsters. No, it's the cloud Nova. Yeah. Cloud Nov, they make great shoes. >> We're down that quickly. >> I'm just like I'm seeing them everywhere now. >> They are not the most durable shoes. >> No they're not. That's what I've heard. No, no, they're not the most durable shoes. The shoelaces. >> No good, no good. >> They don't crease at the right spot. Okay, >> one bonus one here. In or out. Mark Zuckerberg, his celebration. Let's see. The 4th of July holiday. >> Oh. I'm in. >> No, that is I'm. I'm in for that. >> Heck, no. >> I think that shows the power of Meta's AI. And I'm bullish. >> I'm thinking I'm hoping an orca absolutely comes and capsizes his surfboard like they do those boats. >> One of I mean, I'm assuming he's in Hawaii is a big spread out there. So this is one of the richest men in the world in a tuxedo, drinking a beer on a. I think he powers this thing with his legs, I believe is his story. Like you kind of like him. Pump it and it goes. It's not. It doesn't have. Not of a motor, this is not. And he has an American flag. >> No, this is not him. >> I thought it was like an I. It's gotta be. >> That's him. Really? I think that's him. Where? >> The security guards. How are we letting this guy in the middle of an ocean? >> I suppose it would be a great way to show off the AI capabilities, but I do think that's him. Yeah, it's something I think I. I I mean, he's got his hokas on the beach, so I think that's actually a Lululemon suit. I think what Zuck is speaking to in this, and it has obviously plenty of upsides and downsides. We'd see it with a few other people. Elon Musk is in here. People say, what would you do if you had all the money in the world? How would you spend your time? The answer is, usually I'd post more on the internet. That's basically what he's doing with his time. He is now like, I have all this money, I control this company. I will post what I want, when I want, and I'm gonna have fun with it. And you know, I guess good for him for having fun. >> Was this from his Hawaiian compound that people were upset with him for buying? >> I mean, we I don't know the location. I assumed it was Hawaii because he has that spread, although, you know, he also has a place in California. That's where the company is based. You could be in the water there. Oh, just keep showing. I love you know, Northern California doesn't feel like I'm gonna go out and, you know, hang out on a is that a is that a bottled water. >> Is that a beer or high noon. Is that a high noon? >> I think it's a beer. >> It's actually it's a caffeine. I think I think it's a powder. >> It looks like a large can. So I don't think it's a high noon. All right. Really the best part of high noon is the right thing to see. Can form factors. If you're a meta shareholder, this is, this is good stuff. >> That's the balance you want. >> Yeah. Is the do we have do we know what the stock is up today? >> You didn't ask us that. >> You asked us what? How are investors digesting this news, >> they're sending it higher by about 3. There you go. >> Leading performer in the Nasdaq 100. Right now. Meta. All right Myles thanks so much. >> Happy to be here. Great. >> Here guys. >> Coming up we're taking a deep dive into the currency markets. That is next on catalyst. >> I'm Richard Nixon out I'm out of Nike I'm out on Nike. And my thesis is simple. I'm Richard Nixon. >> Hey. Welcome back to catalyst. I'm joined now by Yahoo Finance's Anez. Ferré Anez, thanks so much for joining us on the desk here. Let's dive in to the currency market for this next conversation. The U.S. dollar is edging slightly lower after the U.S. added more jobs than expected in June. For more on this, we have Jane Foley, who is the head of strategy at Rabobank. Great to have you here with us this morning. First and foremost, I want to get your reaction to what we saw come through in that piece of economic data and why we might be seeing this type of reaction, what the typical kind of nature of and correlation to the dollar and the employment report is. >> Well, first of all, thank you for having me. But this wasn't necessarily all about that headline number. It was about what else came within that report. And particularly the revisions. So we saw a significant downward revision to the last two months worth of payrolls data, meaning that a month ago, when we were here, you know, staring at what we thought was a very, very strong payrolls report that month, well, actually, it wasn't as strong as we thought. And so in addition to that downward revision, we also got a tick up in the unemployment rate. And I think put that all together, you know, and you can say, yes, you know what? We got a report which perhaps, went into the same sort of, way as the economic data that we had earlier the week was suggesting, which is a cooling in the US labor market. Certainly not one that is falling out of bed, but certainly one that is cooling and that only served to just reinforce some of that excitement that had built during the course of this week that yes, you know what a fed interest rate cut in September. And then maybe even later in the year as well, is certainly, you know, a primary risk, certainly. >> And how many cuts are you pricing in from your own purview. >> Well, here at Rabobank it's, it's two, which I presume isn't too far away from a market consensus. So September interest rate cut and probably another one in December. But that said, you know, all economists are in addition to the fed, policymakers are still going to be looking at forthcoming economic data to get further justification for those sorts of forecasts. I think so far, you know, the data that we had this week, the ISM numbers, that the labor data that we had today, that the labor subindex of the ISM data all point to the prospects that, yes, you know, that the economy is slowing down sufficiently to bring that interest rate cut. But again, you know, you look at that prices paid subsector of the ISM is still quite sticky. So, you know, there are still elements here with respect to inflation and particularly services sector inflation that policymakers are still going to be a little bit concerned about. >> Jane, I wanted to get your take on the Labor Party win in the UK and the movement that we've seen with the British pound against the dollar, the euro against the dollar, as well. What's your take? >> Well, you know, if we look at, at cable. Well yeah. You know that has done pretty well. In fact Sterling right now is the best performing currency over the last 24 hours or so. The dollar, of course, is weakened by itself over the last few sessions as a market looks ahead to the possibility of a September interest rate cut. But sterling has done well. I mean, the gains that we saw today weren't great. They were fairly moderate. But actually sterling is now the best performing G10 currency in the year to date. And that doesn't mean it's a strong currency, but it does mean that it is improving really from a very low base that we had back in September 2022 when we had, you know, Trussonomics and the gilt market really worried about what that prime Minister may do. Now, she, Liz Truss today lost her seat. And we have, of course, an awful lot of headlines telling us that we had we've now got a landslide victory for the Labor Party. Now that of course, is true. But if you dig a little bit deeper into the data, perhaps you see something not quite so encouraging for the Labor Party. Now, in the UK we have a first past the post system, but labor managed to pick up this majority of seats by only getting a very small increase in the national share of votes, because what it appears has happened is that voters that previously had voted for the Tory party haven't necessarily all migrated to labor, but they've gone to smaller parties instead, meaning that labor hasn't really picked up an awful lot more votes this time around. And that suggests it's going to have to deliver on growth and productivity and people's incomes if it really is going to win the election next time around, and the euro edging higher with the next round of voting in the French election taking place this weekend as well. >> What what are you anticipating there? >> Well, you know, I think that's a lot more interesting perhaps, than the UK election. Now, the market has been encouraged, the euro certainly moving up as polls come out, that the far right, Le Pen's far right party is unlikely to win a majority. Now, from the market's point of view, a hung parliament is better than a majority for the far right. But, you know, it's very difficult to celebrate a hung parliament because if we think about France's budget position, it's not great. The budget deficit in France is 5.5% of GDP. Brussels has wrapped, France on the knuckles, along with Italy and six other EU countries, earlier. Well, just about 2 or 3 weeks ago for not doing enough really to curtail their budget deficit. And when you have a hung parliament. Yeah, you may not have at the far right in, in enacting some of their policies, but it's going to be tough to try and get that budget deficit in a lot of the far right policies, things like wanting to reduce the retirement age could be expensive. A lot of the policies of the of the left wing alliance, which is second after the far right in this election, are also potentially going to cost France more money. So it could be quite difficult to get that budget deficit in. And that probably means that as we go into the second half of this year, we're going to be increasingly worried about some of the budgetary positions of countries such as France and maybe Italy, too. >> Jane Foley, thank you so much for taking the time here with us today. Head of strategy over at Rabobank, Jane Foley. >> Thanks. >> Coming up, President Biden facing more and more pressure to drop out of the presidential race. What his decision could mean for markets next. President Biden, facing ongoing pressure from within his own party and beyond to bow out of November's election. After last Thursday's debate performance with many calling into question his mental fitness for another four years in office. For more on the president's future, let's bring in Terry Haines Pangaea Policy founder here. Terry, what are your anticipations going into this weekend, knowing that there's a big interview that President Biden is going to be doing where the Americans will have another opportunity to assess the acuity? >> Well, thanks for having me, I said right after the debate last week that I didn't think the president would would get out, for a very simple reason. You don't try to become president for 50 years and then chuck it after one, one debate performance, but now he's in a situation where, you know, the he doesn't have three strikes and you're out. He's already had one strike. He gets one more. So every day between now and the election, he's either going to have to convince people that regular voters that as well as the party grandees and fundraisers and the like, the regular voters that he's up to the task and he's able to actually carry this thing off and win it. Otherwise he's going to be gone pretty quickly. >> What do you make of the number of big money donors that are shifting how they're prioritizing their giving to the Democratic Party, and specifically to the Biden campaign with this question mark? Kind of looming large over this weekend? >> Look, in politics as is and in many other professions, you know, the, the, the motivations have a whole lot or a whole lot more selfish than, than you'd think. And I think that's what's going on with a lot of these donors who have already have already put up a substantial amount of money, have pledged a little bit more, and are in a situation where, you know, they're threatening, as you say, to, to, repurpose or whatever. But, the fundraisers always think they have an outsized, outsized impact, on the political machinations on the inside. And they're not able I don't think, to, to affect the result much, they can provide a little extra push if it comes to that, but they're not in contro. >> Terry, you're currently in London. What's your reaction to yesterday's UK election results with labor taking over in the next government? And what would happen if Trump were to win the presidency, or if Biden or another Democrat were to win? >> Well, you know, the election is an interesting one of a landslide with no mandate. >> Jane Foley was talking about this a little bit, but I'll give you a kind of a slightly different look for it. Labor won about two thirds of the seats in the Commons, yet had a 35% vote share, the, and first past the post really means, I mean, for American audiences really means nothing different than what we have. But what you had in, in the Commons elections were 3 or 4 or sometimes even five political parties going at it for, for each individual seat. So you get a sense, a situation where Labor's vote, labor seat totals are pushed up because the opposition vote split between the conservatives and Reform, let's say, similarly, conservatives lost an outsized number of seats, frankly, because of reform. And you've got two political parties, the Lib Dems, with their best ever showing, and you've got this new Reform Party with four seats, even though they got 15% of the vote, but what you see here is not a mandate for Labor or Labor's policies, but frankly, a situation where there's disgust and dissatisfaction with conventional politics as it's been practiced in the UK now, finally, what Starmer is going to have to do is proceed cautiously and frankly. You know, bring the country along with him. So, you know, you're not going to see labor jump in here and all of a sudden start wildly taxing people, you know, the way a prior government might have done, because that's just not going to wash with people. They've worked very hard to get credibility back, and they can't squander it immediately. >> Terry Haynes, Pangaea Policy founder. Terry. Good to see you here. And thanks so much for taking the time. It's got to be at least afternoon some some time over in the UK. Thanks so much. >> Sure thing. >> And thanks for joining us. And as far as well here for the back half of this hour coming up, everyone wealth dedicated to all your personal finance needs. I've got you for the next hour. Stay tuned. Welcome to wealth. Everyone I'm Brad Smith and this is Yahoo Finance's guide to building your financial footprint. Our community of experts will give you the resources, tools, tips and tricks that you need to grow your money. Hey, on today's show, we're taking a look at the labor market with the latest jobs report. We'll bring you expert advice for your job hunt and the best way to find an auto loan. Yahoo finance contributor Ross Mack will give you the tips that you need to find the best deal on a car loan. Plus are you saving as much as you could be? We'll break down how Americans are saving so far in 2024, and what it could mean for your retirement plans. All that and much more throughout today's show. But let's get back to that. Jobs report. 206,000 jobs were added to the US economy in June, according to this morning's report. Unemployment inched above 4% for the first time in over two years, 4.1% to be exact. But what did we learn about how much money people in the labor force are earning? For more, I'm joined now by Inez Ferry. Hey, Inez. >> Hey, Brad. Yeah and wage growth is an important factor to look at because it's basically looking at how much salaries are rising and if that rise means that people have more disposable income to spend. Also, companies have to charge more for their services and goods to maintain that same level of profitability to make up for the increase in cost of their labor. And that tends to fuel inflation. Average hourly earnings on a year over year basis increased by 3.9% in June. That's better than the prior month reading, when the annualized reading came in at 4.1. So it shows wage growth is cooling. In June, average hourly earnings for all employees increased by $0.10, or naught point 3, to $35. Compare that to May, when average hourly wages climbed by $0.14, or 0.4 percent, to $34.91. So again, decelerating growth in average hourly wages. And I'll tell you which sectors saw the most wage growth month over month mining and lodging, manufacturing, construction, financial activities. The sectors where you saw wages actually decline include information that includes publishing, broadcasting and telecom, and also private education and health services and leisure and hospitality, actually saw a month over month decline in wage growth. >> Excellent breakdown there. >> And as if some of the jobs data that's come out this morning. Appreciate it. Thank you. In the June jobs report we saw gains in government health care, social assistance and construction. Julia Pollak, who is the ZipRecruiter chief economist, is here to discuss the industries that are hiring right now. Great to see you, Julianne. Thanks so much for joining us here on the show today. So where are we seeing some moderation. And then where are there jobs to be found? >> So we're seeing some moderation on the services side of the economy. >> The private sector is seeing fewer jobs being added. And the bulk of hiring now is taking place in government and health care, you know, government hiring is pretty interesting. Those payrolls have risen by about 600,000 over the past year. That's an extraordinary number, mostly on the local government side, part of this is to do with the fact that it's an election year. And so all eyes are on the performance of our local public schools and our police departments. And there's tremendous demand on ZipRecruiter right now for law enforcement skills. >> Interesting. Okay. And so of the demand that you are seeing on ZipRecruiter, what are some of the top searches that are being initiated from those that are looking for jobs to. >> So the top search right now is actually a blank search. People don't know what they're looking for. They don't know what's out there. We have a lot of new grads hitting the market who have you know, just finished their training programs in the last couple of weeks and, don't really know what's out there, they need help and guidance and that is why AI is increasingly being used, in, in job search to help people discover jobs and to connect them with opportunities that are a good match for their skills and interests. >> What is true normalization look like in the jobs economy? We're having this conversation earlier, 4.1% sure that the highest that we've seen in about two years or so. But again, as we were hearing from some of the economists earlier on during the hours that Yahoo Finance has been live this morning, that's just getting us back to normal. >> So historically, this is a, you know, very resilient, robust labor market. We've seen job gains of about 177,000 on average the past three months. That's actually above what we saw in 2019 when we had job growth of 164,000 a month. The issue now, though, is that the labor market is slackening. So in 2019, we saw these kinds of job gains, but unemployment was falling because participation wasn't rising as quickly. We actually need to add more jobs now, given that the labor market is growing by more than 200,000 people a month, or else we will continue to see unemployment tick upwards and that is not good for job seekers and workers. I think it's a reason we've seen the job Seeker Confidence Index this month fall to the lowest level since we began measuring it. >> What should people who are beginning their job searches or perhaps job hopping, job switching expect of the wage front? >> So wage growth is cooling, but inflation has cooled faster. And so workers are actually getting real wage increases again after a 25 month stretch in which their wages were losing value in real terms after inflation, so the wage picture, I think, is quite rosy and encouraging. And it's not necessarily the case that this wage growth will be inflationary because productivity growth has been pretty strong. So hopefully these wage gains are sustainable. >> Certainly, you know, as you're kind of looking across the number of companies that are listing or actively looking for people to come and help them with their perhaps generative AI projects, or maybe just to be a police officer, you know, with all of the recruitment that you are seeing and tracking across, where are companies perhaps coming off of the hiring freeze bench and saying, okay, now we feel comfortable bringing people back into our headcount. >> So there are several places where we saw overall employment levels actually fall at around 2022. But they're they're they're gradually rising. Now, one area is in home building. That was an area that took a hard knock when the fed rose. Raised interest rates. But now it's actually at an at a high a post Great Recession, high. We're also seeing tech adding jobs very gradually month after month. A lot of that is in AI, but that sector had been pretty stagnant for a while. Also, in response to high interest rates, you know, just lastly, while we have you, there's a lot of implications when we're getting more economic data, trying to spell out a trend of the employment situation of what the fed may do off of all of this data. >> What is your best anticipation of what we could see in the back half of this year from the Federal Reserve? >> Well, I think at this next meeting, the fed is going to be very seriously debating when to start cutting rates. And I think there'll be a large contingent pushing for a September cut. It's quite possible that we'll see a September cut and another one in December in December, if inflation data keeps heading in this direction. >> Julia Pollak, who is the ZipRecruiter chief economist, Julia, great to see you and thanks again for joining us. >> Thanks, Brad. >> In the market for a new home, we break down what you need to know before you take on those open houses this weekend. That's right. After the break, stick with us. Buying a home just became a little bit more expensive. Mortgage rates hitting their first weekly increase since May this week to break down what you need to know if you're in the market for a new home. Jessica Lautz, who is the National Association of Realtors deputy chief economist and vice president of research, joins us now. Jessica, great to have you here on the show with us. Okay, so where are we seeing perhaps some continued movement in the housing market, especially knowing that a lot of consumers are hearing headlines like housing prices at all time highs and trying to figure out where their best entry point is. >> Yeah. So it's really difficult for consumers today and really discouraging, actually, as we hit the summer months, knowing that interest rates are actually back on the climb now, we don't know if that's sustained or if we're going to see interest rates really in this range for a substantial period of time. And I think this is probably where we're going to be, when we think about a home buyer today, looking at affordable price points, this is where they're having a very difficult time finding housing inventory that has been very tight at very expensive price points. We are seeing that more buyers are in that market because they can afford that, and we also know that people have a lot of housing equity, so they're able to make these expensive trades. Certainly. >> And as we're thinking about how that's playing into the calculus of buying a new home versus buying an existing home, where are you seeing that trade off kind of net out among those prospective buyers? >> So when we think about the new home market, we know that it had been historically a smaller portion of what it is today. That being said, we know that right now we need more home building than we currently have housing starts actually have been pretty flat if we think about the last couple of months of data. So this is not encouraging. When we think about the need for more housing starts to come into the market for new housing inventory. If you think about an existing unit, there's many people who are locked into these lower interest rates. If they financed or refinanced their home at 3.5% versus, about nearly 7. Today, we're talking about a very substantial change in that mortgage payment that they may not be willing to do or cannot pay for that change above $700 a month. Really? >> Do you see affordability getting any better as the fed begins to cut interest rates anticipated in the second half of this year? >> Well, it's all part of the equation. Certainly mortgage rates, if we see them coming down even a little bit, could be encouraging news for home buyers. But we also know that home prices are continuing to go up. In fact, if we see mortgage rates come down, we could actually see more bidding wars in the housing market today. With this really limited housing inventory. And that's just part of the equation that perhaps some people may not feel encouraged to jump into. Right now. If we look at the housing market today, even with interest rates higher, we know that 30% of homes are moving over the asking price. >> So if interest rates are cut and then that impacts mortgage rates as well, potentially more bidders hopping in. And then with that bidding war, you could see the price having even more of a premium on top of it. I mean, then at what point would we finally see, you know, enough of the property that is sold through? And for those who may say, all right, well, I'll just build a new home if they have that luxury or are able to do so, at what point would you see the settling of some of that activity and perhaps retrenching to more normalization? >> I would say we need to have several years of home building activity that's quite strong to bring in some equilibrium to the market, because the big thing that we have right now is a huge wave of young adults coming into the housing market, trying to find their first property at the exact same time that baby boomers are hitting retirement actively in retirement, looking for that perfect home as well. It's putting a lot of pressure on the housing market right now for limited inventory. At the same time that current homeowners are unwilling or unable to be able to move. All right. >> I want to end this conversation with some actionable tips for those who are excited. The revved up. They're going out to some open houses this weekend. What do they need to be keeping in mind? Jessica >> Well, stay in close touch with your experts. You want to make sure that you have your realtor on your side, but you also want to make sure that you're keeping in close touch with your mortgage broker to make sure that you can afford the homes that you're looking for. >> All right. Jessica Lautz, who is the National Association of Realtors deputy chief economist and vice president of research. Good to have you on the program here with us today. Jessica >> Thank you. Thanks. >> Rebalancing your investments for the second half of the year, we speak to a portfolio manager on how you can set yourself up for success right after the break. If you're in the market for a new car, getting the right auto loan is important for keeping your budget intact. Here with some auto loan tips. Is Yahoo Finance contributor and host of Financial Freestyle on Yahoo Finance. Ross. Mac. Hey, Ross. >> How you doing, brother? >> I'm good. I'm good. Okay, so what do people need to be keeping in mind as they're trying to make sure that affordability is being prioritized? But also protection and coverage when they're making that auto purchase? >> First things first, you got to know your budget when you're in the market for a car, right? I think when we start thinking about what we're spending our money on, quite often we're overspending, especially when it comes to a car, a good rule of thumb try not to spend more than 10% of your monthly take home income. Right? And so, just to give you an idea, the average car note payment for this year, 2024 for new cars, roughly $723, meaning that a person should be making $7,000. Take home income, right? And so obviously that's not the average. So as you can see, quite often, a person probably will be overspending when it comes to a car, unless they're willing to live within their means. And another thing to think about is you have to prioritize your credit score, because that could be the difference in paying, you know, thousands of dollars just based on purely the interest rate that you're going to get. Right. And I think another thing, as you're thinking about your credit score, you want to say, what can I be? What can I be doing now? Leading up until that time, I purchased my car. Meaning you don't want to make any new big purchases aka applying for any new credit. You don't want to be closing down any other credit cards or any credit that you have, because that's going to just overall make your length of credit history lower. And another thing to think about is just understanding overall what your affordability you need to go into the market saying, hey, you know, there are other costs associated with that car, not just the car. Note you got insurance, you got maintenance. You get obviously the interest rate and a few other things. Gas, right. >> And so if someone has a dotted their dotted their I's, crossed their t's everything, and secured themselves alone, it's now the time to head to the dealership. What are some tips that people should follow to make sure that they stay within their budget when they're making that purchase? >> I love that I think first things first, go online and get pre-approved going into the dealership. I love the concept of going in there saying, hey, I've been pre-approved for $60,000 or for whatever the number is, right? And then that gives you the ability to still stay within that range and not, you know, be tempted with a few other things, right? Because when you go in there, you got to understand that dealer financing often is more expensive, right? I think, you know, the car salesman might make more money if you're using dealer financing as opposed to saying, oh, I'm pre-approved. Here's my paperwork, I'm ready to go. And so that's something to think about. Another thing to think about is, you know, understand those add ons, right. That that car salesman and say, hey, do you want this extended warranty or do you want this or do you want that? It sounds good, but just understand how quickly you can have you can go from $50,000 car to $65,000 with a few add ons. So those are the things that I would recommend, right? >> Do I need the sport package? Do I need it? Is it going to get me to work faster? This is just A to B car. Ross, thanks so much for taking the time. Always great to see you and make sure to check out Financial Freestyle on Yahoo Finance Mondays, 12 p.m. eastern with the man himself, Ross Mac. Well, markets, we've been tracking them this morning after both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq hit fresh intraday record highs. We kick off the second half of the year this week. And you might want to rebalance your portfolio to stay on track to discuss. We've got Keith Buchanan Globalt Investments senior portfolio manager here with us Keith great to see you. All right so let's dive into this the second half playbook. What does that look like. Where are there hot areas that investors should maybe be kicking the tires. >> Well thank you very much for having me. >> We we're looking at the second half of 20, 24 with a nuanced, cautious approach. Typically coming into a second half of the first half we had with so much of the market cap and returns being garnered by just a few stocks, we're looking elsewhere in the market. We feel like those stocks have commanded a lot of tension, market cap and honestly, the growth that they've displayed has been remarkable, but we want to make sure that there are other spots in the marketplace, particularly in consumer land and industrials and financials, that perhaps might offer opportunities in the second half of the year as those few stocks that have have, again, gotten a lot of attention from the marketplace has to really grow into those expectations in a way that. >> Keith, I think we're having an issue with your audio. We're going to try and get that resolved here very quickly. Taking a look at the markets, as we were just discussing with Keith Buchanan, the Dow right now is lower, the lone laggard, if you will. It's down by about three hundredths of a percent. The S&P 500 in positive territory. The Nasdaq Composite in positive territory. We're going to go to a quick break. That was Keith Buchanan Global Investments senior portfolio manager. Going to try and square away that audio for you. We'll be right back. Middle income families continue to remain anxious about the state of the economy. With two thirds of families reporting their income falling behind. The cost of living, though on the upward swing from this time last year. This is all according to the newest survey from Primerica. For more, let's bring in Glenn Williams, the CEO of Primerica. Glenn, great to see you and thanks for hopping on the show with us. All right. So what are we seeing? What's the feel, the vibe across middle income families from the data that you're seeing at Primerica? >> Well, Brad, it's great to be with you. And as you saw from the headline stat, you know, two thirds still feel they're falling behind. So I would say middle income families still feel like they're in retreat financially, we also detect a high level of stress financially from these families. And of course, we all know stress is not good for our physical health or for our relationships. But within the numbers, we saw that three quarters are cutting back. And of course, that is actually good. That's what people should be doing, is reprioritizing. The challenge is that half are reducing savings or stopping savings entirely, and 30% can report continued increased credit card usage. So what's happening is they're shifting priorities. That's good when they stop savings. But or stop spending but reducing savings and using more credit is not a good trend. >> And so those difficult decisions where are you seeing perhaps the trade off more largely among households. >> Well, it's an item by item process. And we sit down with families. It's always about prioritizing or reprioritizing and so we sit down with families and explain to them that as much as they love those streaming services or the newest model cell phone that is preventing them from achieving their more important financial priorities, and the challenge is, is that time is an ally when you're investing, but it's an enemy when you're borrowing. And so shifting from saving and investing to borrowing is a double negative. And so that's what we try to demonstrate that to families and then help them through the process of making those tough decisions on what's truly important to them and then taking action on those. >> Okay, so with this in mind, I was looking through some of the findings from your middle income financial security monitor here. And the majority grasp financial basics, but not complexities here. Can you break that down a little bit further for us? And where there is understanding about perhaps some of the levers that can be pulled at a household level, but the execution and the complexities are still perhaps daunting at this juncture. >> Sure. >> Well, as humans, we tend to think we have a general understanding of things, but maybe we don't know the specific process needed to really make an impact. So as we sit down with families, clearly they know they need to be saving for the future, particularly for retirement. They need to make sure debt doesn't get out of control. But we see them in action. We sit down with them and first analyze where they are today. And that's where it exposes that. What sometimes they think is happening is not exactly what's happening. They're spending more than they think. They're using credit more, they're saving less, or the amount that they're saving is not going to get them where they want to go in time. And so that's where the decision starts. And then we help them with step by step process. I mean the first thing is you've got to start some savings. Even if it's small, you've got to start to reduce your debt. Even if that's a small process, you got to protect your family with term life insurance. So there's some basic steps. And then as families get started, they get a little momentum. And then they find out it's easier to take the next step and the next step. We find out that it's not usually the information, it's the personal application of the information to their specific circumstances that confuse families. And then it's the motivation to act and continue to act that families need. >> That's a great point, Glenn. You know, just lastly, while we have you here, I was looking through some of the drivers and the lack of financial planning and anxiety and limited time were two of the top that came up in this report from Primerica. You know, as you're thinking about the small decisions that add up to big solutions or perhaps big savings or smart spending habits, what are the tips that households can employ right now, this weekend, even as they're starting to think about getting into a better financial standing? >> Well, I think you hit the nail on the head, Brad. It's sometimes it's sitting down with families and just demonstrating that they can do something. It's not hopeless, it's not impossible. And when we sit down with families, they've got to take a look at, as we saw in the survey, it's things like going out that are optional. If you can eat in more often, save a few dollars, use those to invest or pay down debt. Look at your streaming services. That's an area that there's just a lot of expense that sometimes families don't even realize they have or they're not using any longer. Take a look at at at your electronic devices. The expenses there. So many of these things a generation ago didn't even exist. You know, my generation didn't have to deal with these coming through that phase of life. But now there are things that are optional that people have assumed are mandatory, and they need to go back and say, that's not as important as the greater priorities in my life. That's financial security for my family. >> All right. I gotta finish watching a few Netflix series, and trigger Warning was on my watch list as well. The movie on Netflix. Before I cancel the streaming services here, Glenn. But then I'll take some of that advice you just gave. Thanks so much. >> And then pull the plug. >> Glenn Williams, Primerica CEO great to see you. >> Great to be with you. >> Thanks. >> Well market's mixed here today. After both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq hit fresh intraday record highs. We kick off the second half of the year that happened this week. And you might want to rebalance your portfolio to stay on track to discuss. Let's bring in Keith Buchanan Globalt Investments senior portfolio manager here with us. All right so let's talk about this second half playbook here Keith. Where are you seeing some rotation take place. And where perhaps are investors leaning further in to their portfolio trade. >> Thank you very much for having me. We're looking at the second half of this year as a, an opportunity again, as you mentioned, to, to rebalance a bit. We've been really concentrating on large cap growth. We've, been in a position our clients have benefited from that positioning, but now we're looking at becoming a little more balanced as it's coming into this earnings season, which we think is critically important. Everyone sees an important, but this one is critically important to this bull market we're on, because of the ten largest names SP5 hundred, generate very large disproportionate amount of the growth as well, so as those names have performed, they have grown into those multiples. We feel like that's going to become more and more challenging into the second half of this year, into 2025. So this earnings season is really going to be a barometer of where those ten, 7 to 10 names or so will contribute to guidance. And S&P 500 earnings in 2024 and 2025 that have baked in a lot of growth and a lot of that come from those those top largest names in the SP5 hundred. >> Keith, it's been a hot Nvidia year. Could be a hot Nvidia summer. Who knows? I mean as we're thinking about some of the specific overcrowded trades that investors have piled into where you anticipating that we could see a shift at least in the mindset of where some investors who might have been talking about their own portfolio and trading strategy at the barbecue over the past couple of days are trying to figure out, okay, I've seen insiders taking some profits. Should I be taking profits, too? How can investors know when it is the right time to take profits and reallocate them, >> we've seen, you know, large cap growth technology, artificial intelligence oriented names, just really become, make the market really top heavy. And we're looking at spaces outside of that. We again, we've been positioned for that for some time now, but still looking at spaces like, the consumer, which is really driving, you know, this market really kept us out of recession even for the last four years of, you know, turbulent market environment, the middle to high end consumer is doing a little better than those on the ends. We feel like Costco actually is a name that benefits from that, that shift in spending that's remained more steady with the high and middle income earners as well. The financials. We feel like the steepening of the yield curve has really made those names prop up a bit over the last couple of weeks, of course, we're coming into, you know, when those names, the money center banks start to report, and we're positioned to benefit from some of that as well. So we look, we're looking at financials, some names and consumer driven names, a couple of industrials as well that might be oriented as, as value stocks. But we feel like our position to take the mantle of this bull market, as the top ten names, the of the Magnificent Seven, if you will, coming to some earnings stresses that might hamper those performances from those names going forward in the second half of this year. >> Keith, what do you believe the prevailing theme for the earnings season that we're about to go into could be. Is this growth real? >> The bottom up expectation is for 9% growth in 2020 for a large portion of that. The majority of that is coming in the second half of this year. Without the top ten S&P 500 names, that growth is expected to be about 6. So almost a little over a third of that is coming from just a few names, there's a lot of attention on the Apple's and Nvidia and Microsofts of the world, and rightfully so, because as if that earnings growth is five instead of nine, the multiple of the market completely changes, so there's a lot of riding on this earnings season, particularly for those few names, as the S&P 500 again, has been priced for tremendous growth, frankly, over the second half of this year and next year, whether we can fulfill that expectation is yet to be seen. >> To what extent? Just lastly, while we have you, Keith, to what extent is the general election here in the US a wrench in portfolios coming into what is expected to be another vitriolic type of event here in the US, >> politics has been, in a, in a woven in market dynamics for some time now, we think this year is going to be one of those banner years where politics dictates the, the movements and fixed income and equity markets, particularly in the US, also from a currency standpoint, we've seen that change since the debate on, on Thursday and in pretty dramatic way has shifted very hard, in a, in a kind of a pro-Trump manner on Friday and then some on Monday, but that somewhat shifted back, and in this week, that is really lies with holiday week. So it's really hard to have any main takeaways, but as this second half wears on, we will see that become more and more, a focus of the marketplace and those base bets that are taking place. And being placed, depending on the polls will come, you know, come to a head in November, I think down ballot as well. You see some, some shifts as far as where spending could be and what it, you know, what parts of the market can benefit from that, also being an opportunity, and potentially even a challenge for some parts of the, equity market, those bits again, it's fairly early to, to place the and really have hard takeaways from, from where we are right now politically, we kind of shy away from that until things come into more focus later in the fall, we think the earnings driver really was pushing markets, back and forth, especially from a monetary policy standpoint, as well, we saw the jobs report this morning and how that plays into what the Federal Reserve's reaction function may be and how that might change coming into the fall, that's a that's we feel like it's a more predominant, dictator of the direction of the markets at this point. >> Certainly. Keith Buchanan Global Investments Senior portfolio Manager. >> Great to see you, Keith, and thanks so much for joining us today. >> Thank you. Certainly. >> Up next, an encore showing of Lead This Way with the co-founder and CEO of AumSum. >> When your sister ran. Noodle company hits grocery shelves nationwide. >> When I was a kid. And I was, like, always trying to, like, hide my lunch or, you know, I just didn't want people to come over when my mom was making something particularly aromatic. Fast forward to today, where I get a chance to you know, proudly put this in front of the country. >> The types of aromatic dishes. Vanessa Pham once tried to hide from the world are now on full display in vibrant packaging on the shelves of major retailers. The brand's colorful journey is also on full display across the internet, thanks to fans now tell the world attitude every time I go into the grocery store, I always got to take the phone out and do like the selfie video. >> It always feels surreal. >> AumSum is a sauce and noodles startup partnering with prominent Asian chefs to offer premium, authentic flavors. This isn't your usual microwavable instant noodles. You might think of a huge step Vanessa and her sister Kim say is part of their personal mission to shake up ethnic aisles at grocery stores and bring these dishes to the mainstream. But the recipe to get here? Well, it wasn't a simple one. A global pandemic Silicon Valley banks collapsed, and the challenges any 24 year old would face leading a brand new startup all stood in the way of her vision and mission of spreading her values and culture through the love of food. Tell us what Amstor means. I mean, that in itself just symbolizes so much of the mission. >> I'm Sam is actually based on a Vietnamese word, Sam. And in Vietnamese it means rowdy, rambunctious, riotous. It's actually a negative term. It's what our parents would use when they were trying to scold us. And Kim and I were really inspired by that energy. What if we kind of turn that on its head and celebrate that aspect of who we are, and I'm Sam is all about being proud and loud, especially when the stereotype of Asian Americans in America is kind of like submissive or docile, Sam is our true kind of energy and ethos and spirit. >> While hiking in Bolivia in 2018 with her more free spirited sister, the once risk averse Pham decided to lean into what she felt was her true ethos and leave her steady consulting career behind. >> We instantly circled around the mission and the industry and the mission is to educate on multitudes within Asian America, honor and celebrate Asian cuisines and flavors and the industry just had to be food because for us, it was a love language. It was how we first, like, really learned to engage with our culture as Vietnamese Americans and daughters of refugees with nothing more than what the two sisters had in the bank. >> They set out on their mission to create something unique. Embracing their roots was a catalyst to create omsm, as they saw an opportunity to tap into the ethnic food market, which is set to reach $84.7 billion by 2034. And investors saw the opportunity, too, as a number of them, including the co-founder of the luggage company away, Jen Rubio, founder of the online wedding platform Zola Shanlin Ma and former Whole Foods executive turned VC founder Ali Truesdale of New Fair Partners, helped fund the FAM sisters vision for fam, embracing her personality. Well, that that was how she learned to lead the brand. Yeah, exactly. Do you see yourself as more of a risk forward, leader now, do you feel like you're tapping in to that mission? >> I would say that the person who I was when we were first building Omsm is very different than the person I am today. I think my proud and loud has actually been embracing who I a, which is very sensitive, very empathetic. Lots of feelings. And learning to see that that's a huge strength as a leader. If I don't make myself wrong for that or suppress that. >> You also founded the company at such a young age. I think you were, what, 24? >> I was 24, a baby, a baby, yeah. >> How did you push through that noise and say, I may be young, but I'm making a difference? Yeah I would say the loudest noise was actually my own self-doubt at the time. >> And so, so much of this journey has been actually working with my kind of inner narratives and dialog and now I think I'm kind of my own hype woman. >> So a hype woman with a core team who have helped her create not just food products, but an environment fueled by the brand's identity and Pham's own energetic outlook, something she has embedded in the culture. >> Everybody here is incredibly talented, incredibly driven, and I think enlivened by the mission of Omsm, and I absolutely lean on the team. I think, you know, a strong leader must and should trust and empower those that work with them. I learned from the team every single day. >> Pham's journey in starting Omsm has definitely been a learning experience as they sought out the right manufacturing partner, which they found in Chicago back in Brooklyn, another huge lesson came their way how to launch a specialty food business in the middle of a global pandemic. >> When we started out building Omsm, we were just wide eyed. We didn't know what could come, and before we even launched, the first big challenge came, do we launch in the midst of this pandemic? At the start of it, or do we pause and wait it out? And what we realized is that folks during this time are going to be at home. They're going to be wanting to feel a sense of connection and home. And we felt like that's what Omsm is all about. I think we did make the right decision, despite some folks warning us, that it could be a difficult time. >> Who were those folks? >> Those investors, those people who backed you? How did you push over that? >> One of my philosophies as as a leader is, you know, you've got this whole kind of network of folks, whether they're investors or you know, other folks. And I believe it's so important to, you know, take in their input, their advice and their experience like a sponge. But at the end of the day, coming together with, you know, your your team, centering your values and finding the best path forward for the company is really, you know, that power is yours. We decided this was the time that we wanted to bring this company to the world. >> Just three years after launching during Covid, Pham faced another major obstacle regulators shut down Silicon Valley Bank. >> The FDIC has taken control of the bank deposits. So what's the fallout? The ripple effects leaving the startup without access to their capital right before the brand was scheduled to launch their second product line, saucy Noodles, nothing can really prepare you for that type of, you know, uncertainty. >> I immediately had to figure out what our options were, and at the same time, Kim and I started working together on how we wanted to communicate what was going on to our community. We wanted to center our values around transparency, and around bringing them in. >> Pham and her sister were transparent with their community in a way that you might expect from the young founders on social media. >> We did not know what would happen in the coming days, and so we put our heads together that Saturday morning and wrote something from the heart. >> Running a proud and loud business doesn't always mean being celebratory. So let's talk about how Svp's collapse poses a major existential threat to many small businesses, including Omsm. I think while we were still very scared and nervous, we felt deeply heartened by the people that showed up for us. >> Talk about what values you hold closest to you as a leader. >> One of the values that I've really centered in my journey as a leader is being heart forward, which is something that I don't think was necessarily historically celebrated in leadership. You know, it was about being, you know, decisive being kind of just like leading with certainty and confidence, sometimes at the expense of your humanity. And I feel like at the early stages of my journey, I tried that on and I was always making mistakes when I was in that, you know, head space of being something that I wasn't. And so the last couple of years, I've started to accept more of who I am in my leadership. If I'm, you know, working on something in my own journey, I am open to sharing that. And I hope that that kind of invites people to feel confident and accepted in who they are. At Omsm to you, when your team thinks of you as a leader, what do you hope is the message that you're getting across? I really hope that every everybody at Omsm feels valued for who they are and what they bring to the table, and that they feel they have room to learn to sometimes make mistakes. It's about celebrating your truth and exactly what makes you you. I want AumSum to be the type of place where people are learning and expanding, but also feeling great pride in their kind of natural strengths. >> Sam and her team are determined to fill a white space. Think cava and how it's setting out to fill the white space for fast casual Mediterranean food, or what Chipotle has done for fast casual Mexican cuisine. And now AumSum aims to fill the void for premium authentic Asian flavors in the packaged food market. That market is expected to grow around 50% globally by 2030, and while AumSum doesn't disclose its finances publicly, the suggested retail price for its saucy noodles and its cooking sauces range from nearly 4 to $5. Since launch, the brand has sold 4 million products and expanded its presence to over 2000 stores without losing sight of its roots. FAM isn't satisfied yet, though far from it. She wants, in her own words, proud and loud Asian flavors to be mainstream. >> I want to see AumSum become a cultural force, a household name that continues to honor Asian and American communities and flavors and culture every single day. I want us to be in homes across the country, but still hold that ethos and that heart that we do today, and ethos and heart that fam and her sister inherited from their parents, who, as refugees, weren't able to take the same kinds of risks. >> Your parents must be so proud of you. What do you think they think about all that you have done? >> They tell us all the time, which I really appreciate. They tell us that we are honoring our family history by the work that we do, and because they're refugees and they've, you know, built the life we have today, I it is my, you know, biggest life stream to honor them and do right by them. If there's one moment that really felt like, wow, I made it, we did it, what would that moment be? It's when we've shown the people who helped to get us here what we've done. And so it's really my grandparents. We were featured in a spread in Vietnam, and it's written in Vietnamese, so I cannot wait to bring it to them because they can read it and really understand that. And that'll be the moment, I think, when it really hits me, you know, what's what we've accomplished. >> We've all heard Americans are struggling to save for retirement, but are they the average retirement account balance increased by 19% last year. That's compared to 2022. And more than 4 in 10 people raised the amount of money they set aside into their 401 K accounts, according to a Vanguard report. To discuss the study, Yahoo Finance's very own Kerry Hannon is here. Hey Kerry. >> Hey Brad. Great to be here. Yeah I mean we all hear so much doom and gloom about people not saving enough for retirement or being woefully behind that. This just was very encouraging to see Vanguard take a look back at 2023. And they saw some really positive, optimistic trends. People were saving more and people were contributing more to their accounts. And so, you know, let's break down what this happened to what what sort of is behind all of this and the biggest trend is auto enrollment. And auto escalation. And what that means is employers automatically put people into their employer provided retirement account. They're for one K and then they raise it up each year. So it kind of gets away from that inertia of people not making that decision to get rolling and to increase the amount. This has done a huge amount in pushing people to save more. And I think it's a really great trend. Employers have also doubled the amount that they contribute as a match to 4% or more. It used to a decade ago, it was about half of that. So that's fantastic news as well. And the second thing that's behind it, Brad, in many ways, is target funds. I mean, target funds have become you know, they absolutely rule the day now. And most people are in these target funds, which as as the listeners know and the viewers know it's set and forget. Right. You make your investment. And then as the markets go up and down and as you age, they gradually reduce your risk. Say you say you're going to retire in 2035. Then as you get towards that date, it goes from equities down to more fixed income. And it really helps people not trade as much, which is quite good for these accounts because there's not a lot of shaking up. And for younger workers, Vanguard has found that it's super helpful because they used to be not invested enough in equities and so as a result, they lost out on growth. And this helps them get in at a better a better sort of composition of their retirement account for their future. So that's great news. They another study I looked at Transamerica showed that, you know, younger workers are actually starting to save for retirement at age 20. Gen Z. And that compares to 25 for millennials. And, you know, Gen X started at 30 or so. So we're seeing a movement to start saving earlier, which I absolutely love. Now before I get too crazy, I got to say there was one sort of caveat to the Vanguard report I need to mention is that more people than ever rated their retirement accounts. So this is a small percentage, but I've got to tell you, it's worth looking at and a concern. And they did it mostly, probably prompted by inflation for medical bills and housing expenses. But as we know, if you do that, if you if you withdraw from your retirement account for these things and there are some exceptions to this rule, but but you generally are if you're not 59.5, you're going to pay a 10% penalty and you're going to pay tax. And that money is gone. So those are just a couple of things that, that, that kind of percolated out of that. And my final point is that even though I'm so excited to see these positive numbers for once, the fact is half of Americans still do not who work in the private sector do not have access to an employer provided retirement plan. And what that means is they really do have to voluntarily, you know, jump in and get going. >> Kerry Hannon, a lot of gems from that study. Appreciate you breaking it down for us. Thanks so much, Kerry. >> Thanks, Brad. >> Certainly. Hey everyone. That's it for wealth I'm Brad Smith. Thank you for watching. Stay tuned here on Yahoo Finance for market Domination with Jared Blikre and Josh Lipton. That comes up at 3 p.m. eastern. You don't want to miss it. |
qqWNTYYYGyw | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqWNTYYYGyw | 2024-07-03 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Stock market today: S&P 500, Nasdaq close at record highs as Powell touts inflation progress | Hello and welcome to Market Domination. I'm Josh Lipton alongside Seana Smith. Live from our NYC headquarters. We are giving you the ultimate investing playbook to help tune out the noise and make the right moves for your money. >> And here's your headline blitz getting you up to speed. One hour before the closing bell on Wall Street. >> I think the last reading and the one before it to inflation, the one before it to a lesser extent, do suggest that we are getting back on on a disinflationary path. We want to be more confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2. Before we start the process of reducing how tight our policy is of loosening policy. >> He's kind of like really voicing investor sentiment, right now is we'll see what's going to happen because there's a lot of uncertainty, even though the market right now is reflecting strength. >> There is still the risk of further price cuts ahead. And there is still further question on fundamentals. We are still facing somewhat of an EV winter and so good results. But I think the fundamental macro backdrop is still the same. >> I wouldn't necessarily be overly concerned that the labor market is heating back up as a result of these these data. In fact, it makes some sense to me that we're stabilizing, potentially after a few months of a sharp downturn. >> All right. We've got one hour until the closing bell. Let's take a look at where things stand right now. And it has been a record setting day here for the markets, at least at this point. With an hour to go, you've got the Nasdaq, that huge number up there on your screen, 18,000 crossing above that level here for the first time and flipping it over to the S&P 500. Some of the trending that we have seen so far today as we flip over to that intraday chart here, you can say it's still just below that 5500 level, but still moving to the upside on track to close at a new record high. When you take a look at the Dow, we're also looking at gains there up just around 89 points as of right now. Taking a look at the bond market. There are lots of focus on that over the last 48 hours. But again, we're seeing a bit of cooling here as yields pull back after brushing up against that 4 or 5 level yesterday. Take a look at the sector action. Consumer discretionary outperforming here . Financials not too far behind. But you've got consumer discretionary by far the leader in today's trading action on the flip side you've got health care and energy as the underperformers. Well that outperformance there from consumer discretionary. A lot of that is to do with the gains that we're seeing in Tesla alone today. You've got Tesla just off the highs of the session but still moving to the upside up about 9% today on the heels of better than expected delivery numbers. So that's carrying the consumer discretionary sector. They're the leader in today's trading action. We've also got much of the Mega-cap tech names to in the green. You've got Apple Amazon both up just around 1.5% Nvidia giving back some of its recent gains there off just around just over 1% today Josh all right Sean new job openings unexpectedly rising in May topping economists expectations. >> The new data showing a resilient labor market ahead of Friday's full jobs report. Joining us now is Matthew Rossetti. Deutsche Bank chief U.S. economist Matt, it is good to see you. Let's get right to your take, Matt. I'm interested what you think is coming on Friday morning with that big jobs report. It was interesting. Matt, I don't know if you saw Nick Timiraos, his latest comment, the journal, it was a good one. And the way he sort of, Nick kind of framed it was interesting as a question. He sort of asked, you know, is the labor market in this sustained equilibrium where the unemployment rate kind of settles out around 4% or no, we keep softening, resulting in recession. I'm interesting, Matt, how you think about that question. >> Yeah, I think any times you have kind of a slowing in the economy that's taking place, there's always a question about the trajectory. Are we slowing to something that's more worrying? You know, stalling out in the economy or perhaps even a recession or is it going from a very robust growth, environment that we had last year back down to just something that's far more normal? I think it's definitely the latter. I think if you look at at this morning's JOLTS data, you mentioned job openings were higher. Actually, the hiring rate had picked up. The quits rate has stabilized, as somewhat lower levels over the past six months. But all that together does suggest that after softening over the past six months or so, you're seeing a labor market that is stabilizing at this point in time for Friday, we expect that you see jobs added about 200, 225,000, the unemployment rate remains steady at 4, but actually risks that that could round down to 3.9. They see average hourly earnings or wage growth firm again at 0.4. And I think if we get that data point, it will alleviate some of the concerns around the idea that the labor market could be cooling too much. >> My question to you is, as we have seen, some of these softer econ prints here as of late, discounting the JOLTS report out this morning, but we have seen weakness in housing manufacturing also coming in a bit weaker than expected earlier this week. What does that tell us just about your confidence here? Are you still confident that we are going to see a soft landing and be able to avoid a recession? >> Yeah, it's still our baseline. You're right. You are seeing some slowing in the data, a lot of this was anticipated, for, for quite some time on the manufacturing side, you know, the ISM manufacturing index was a little bit softer than expected. But actually, if you look at new orders relative to inventories, it's showing that we should have good growth momentum in the manufacturing sector. And that's actually a similar signal that we got from the PMI data this week. As well. I think that there's going be a lot of focus on the consumer as we look ahead, obviously there's a lot of interplay between the consumer, and the labor market. But if we continue to see a labor market that churns out meaningful income growth, something that we actually saw in the personal income report last week, it's really hard for me to see a reason why with with very high wealth, meaningful income growth for, for consumers, why the consumer should slow in a worrying way. >> And, Matt, when we talk about the consumer, of course, you know, there's different consumers, high income, middle income, low income. Do you have a read on kind of how each is doing right now and what you see ahead? >> Yeah. >> No doubt. I think you have, a lot of heterogeneity in the consumer experience at this point in time, you know, that is being driven in part by the drawdown in excess savings that we've had, particularly at the bottom half of the income distribution. You're seeing certainly some strains or stresses showing up, showing up there with with higher delinquency rates. You know, on the other side, if you look at the upper half of the income distribution, higher income households, they're benefiting from, from very high, house prices from, from equities that are near record record levels. The fact that they're locked into low mortgage rates kind of insulates them from, from higher interest rates at this point in time. And the labor market is still chugging along here, you know, despite the slowing that we've seen. So there is definitely some divergences in the data that we're seeing. I think importantly, though, from an aggregate or macro perspective, you know, which is what the fed would be most focused on at the moment. It looks like a consumer that's slowing just a more comfortable levels rather than something that is that is either stalling out or recessionary at this point. >> So the Mac, given that and also just the commentary from Fed Chair Jay Powell earlier today, I'm curious just to get your perspective on what this tells us about that first rate cut, because he didn't explicitly say or give us any hints on the timing. But when you take into account what he is saying or what he did say, the fact that the labor market is cooling, the fact that he is, very much encouraged by some of the progress that we have seen on inflation. What does that then tell us? Just do you think about the odds of a cut in September? >> Yeah, our baseline is that you get one cut this year and then it happens in December. But you know, there are certainly some prospects for a September rate cut that can come in one of two ways that we get better inflation data over the next several months. And as that clip showed, you know, Chair Powell has been encouraged by at least the last inflation print. You know, certainly if we get something that looks like last Friday's core PC print over the next several months, the fed could very well cut at the September meeting. The other way to get to a rate cut is that you have a weakening in the labor market. That's unexpected, that's the area where, you know, that is a downside risk, but it is not part of our baseline at the moment. From Chair Powell's comments this morning, I did sense a little bit of a dovish tone to that. You know, he was encouraged by the inflation data. He's certainly looking at a labor market that is coming into much better balance and is not an important source of inflation at this point in time. And so really there'll be data dependent, you know, essentially if they get very good inflation data over the next few months, that will certainly improve the prospects for a September rate cut. >> Matt, you know, election is front and center. That means tariffs are front and center as well. Biden and Trump have both both embraced that. I'm just interested as an economist, how you think, Matt, about that policy tool. Do you think it's smart? Do you think it's effective? What's the potential impact on the economy? Matt >> Yeah, I think from an impact on the economy perspective, it really matters, kind of the breadth and size of those those tariffs, you know, certainly we've seen President Biden embrace that to a certain extent, but it's been quite narrow on things like imports of electric vehicles from China. The proposed tariffs from the potential Trump administration are much broader. They're much higher, he's thinking in contemplating a 10% universal baseline tariff. That's a 10% tariff across the board, contemplating 50 to 60% tariffs on imports from China. That would have a meaningful macro impact. And so as we think about the Federal Reserve in particular, over the next year, December and then into next year , the election outcome will be important for how much they cut rates. And if we get an election outcome that promises fiscal stimulus via via tax cuts and inflationary policies through through tariffs, it'll be less likely that the fed cuts rates meaningfully next year. >> Matt. Great to have you on today. Thanks for helping us kick off the show. Appreciate it. >> Thanks for having me. >> We are just getting started here on market domination. And coming up, Tesla shares getting a lift after the EV maker surprised the street with better than expected deliveries in Q2. More on what that means for the company's road ahead next. Plus, we'll discuss some of the top trending tickers on Yahoo Finance. >> Gearing up for the 4th of July vacation travel plans could prove bumpy, with a record number of Americans expected to hit the road. We've got the outlook ahead. Tesla shares jumping as the EV giant reports upbeat results for deliveries. Wall Street pleasantly surprised with the lower than expected decline of nearly 5% in deliveries compared to just a year ago. Joining us now to discuss. We want to bring in Barron's associate editor Al Root. Al, it's good to see you. So let's talk about these numbers that we're just getting out here from Tesla. Because coming in better than expected when you take a look at the market's reaction clearly they were very excited about the print that was published this morning. So what does that tell us. Just about where Tesla stands is the worst over for Tesla. >> Yeah I think that if you look at the reaction today, the message is sort of the worst is over, several notes from Wall Street basically indicate that. And, you know, one of the interesting questions I got early in the day was, well, how did they do it? I mean, it was a very good quarter, better than the first quarter, where they delivered about 387,000. But like that graphic shows it's still down year over year. So part of how they did it is basically just meeting lowered expectations or beating lowered expectations. Estimates always tend to fall headed into the print. That certainly happened this time as well. So it was a good quarter, and again, I just think there was so much anxiety over, you know, two consecutive year over year declines. How bad is it going to be? Is it going to be 420,000 units? You know, it wasn't that bad. >> Al. Next, next date on the calendar for Tesla investors July 23rd Earnings Day. What do you expect to hear there, al? Are there certain metrics you're going to make a beeline for in that print? >> I'd like. Well so you know the deliveries are connected to that right. You know they also did 9.4GW hours of storage, you know, that goes in their other business category. That was that was a record for a quarter by, you know, more than 100. So that's more revenue, and then with with the deliveries being a little better than expected, I will go right to that operating profit margin. Right. They did about 5.5% operating profit margins in the first quarter, down from about 11% a year ago. Margins have been steadily marching lower as they've lowered prices and growth is slowed. So I would like to see that turnaround. The street's expecting about 8. So the street expects some improvement. So we'll look at operating margins and we will look for like the reversal in earnings estimate declines. This delivery result is good enough where earnings estimates shouldn't have to be cut into the quarter. And you can expect sort of, you know, the standard beat, you know, and look forward to the rest of the year. You know Q1, Q2 being the worst part of the year. And then establishing this idea that Tesla can grow again in the back half. And then in 2025. >> Yeah. So with that in mind, I guess my question is on pricing then do you think the pricing wars that have played out that Tesla has had to lower its prices on vehicles, really across the world, that maybe that isn't going to be as big of a driving factor here? When we talk about some of the pressure that that has put on margins. >> Well, interestingly to your point, Tesla produced far fewer vehicles than it sold. So Tesla's inventories are lower. So that that lowers the pressure for them to cut their prices, further to clear out some of that inventory. But they're only one, right? They're about 50% of the US. They're about 20% globally of all electric vehicle sales. So, you know, other people have to play along, EV growth in China has been better. But again, that's partially been boosted by pricing. I think the safe thing to say is, pricing is probably going to bump along the bottom. So it's not necessarily going to be the pressure it was in 2023. And early in 2024, some of the delivery results, not only from Tesla but Rivian, NIO, Xpeng, Li, BYD indicate that that, that vehicles are being sold at these levels. So you know, the car companies might say to themselves, okay, you know, we're good. We can just sort of operate at these levels. But again, it's not totally up to Tesla, at least from their perspective. There's less pressure to keep cutting prices. >> And I want to switch gears a bit. Talk about another company. You know, very well that's Boeing. You just made a visit, al. To a Boeing manufacturing plant. Walk us through it. What did you learn? >> So Boeing, usually does investor events, right? Or media events, and they bring everybody out there. We were in the Renton facility at build 737 Max. So obviously that's a very big deal this year. Emergency door plug blew out on Jan fifth, the stock was about $249 a share. Then you see it on the on the graphic there. It's below 186. Most of that's related to 737 quality issues. So they spent basically time trying to explain how quality was improving. Now a plane facility, it is sort of an awesome site, right? It's huge. It's clean, there's a lot of people doing a lot of things. There's more than 2 million parts. If you add up all the rivets and everything, there's more than 2 million parts in a 737, so it would be foolish to say that, you know, like, oh, I went to the plant and now I know the quality's improved, but they spent a lot of time trying to carefully detail. These are the kinds of changes we've made, so something like that can never happen again. And so, you know, we can ramp production and put this in the rear view mirror, you know, time will heal all wounds in the case of Boeing, they don't really have a lot of leeway. They have to be perfect from this point forward, and I left the plant saying, okay, at least, you know, there are things being done in terms of training, measuring, employee efficiency, slowing the work down. They've delivered a lot fewer 737 Maxs than even their customers would like. But that's all part of the process of digging themselves out of this hole. They built. >> I'm curious, what was the feeling like from employees? There are those associated with Boeing, and then when you talk about how obviously it's going to take time here for manufacturing to improve any sense of just more. So what exactly that timeline looks like , so it's a years long process. Years long. Right. So you know, if, you know, we're talking about the Tesla, you know, deliver 444,000 cars, you know, Boeing and Airbus combined will deliver like 1100 planes this year. It is a it's you know, they take, there's a lot fewer of them. They're a lot more money, they're huge, so, you know where Tesla, you know, looking to turn things around in a quarter or two, you know, Boeing in terms of production quality, should be looking to turn it around in a year or two, and people might want to see that process, sped up. But that's just sort of the reality of plane manufacturing, so it'll take a while. And, you know, the things that, investors can look for is, you know, they're basically delivering 20 a month. They're allowed to deliver 38 a month, you know, so getting back to 38 and then having the FAA say, you know what? You can make 50 a month, which is their long term goal or one of their long term goals. I mean, and that and then also seeing some of these other derivatives of the 737 Max approved, like the 737 Max, seven or the longer version called the Dash ten, these things will come out, you know, between now and 2026. And then people will basically say, oh, okay, things are getting better at Boeing, from an employee perspective, you know, each individual employee very proud of their work, you know, can talk about all of their training. Most interestingly, you know, through Covid, you know, at some of the suppliers, Boeing couldn't really quantify or didn't want to quantify it, you know, 20% turnover at some of these places. So there is a huge, you know, curve that some of these people have to go up to get proficient. And I think that really caught Boeing short over the last couple of years as they've run into some of these problems. >> You know, if we're talking Boeing, we also got to talk about who's going to lead this company. Calhoun, stepping down. There's been that chatter al about spirit AeroSystems, Pat Shanahan what do you make of that okay. >> So we looked at this a little while ago. And you know, the names that always came up were Pat Shanahan from spirit, Larry Culp from General Electric, Stephanie Pope, who is a CEO, who's the internal candidate, maybe somebody like Gwynne Shotwell from Space-x, Larry is firmly ensconced at GE, Pat is a legitimate candidate, to replace Dave Calhoun. And there's just an endless debate over should you go internal? Should they have no ties to Boeing? Should they have a lot of ties to Boeing? Because it's a complex organization where you need a lot of credibility internally. There is just no good answer. I can show you CEOs that came from outside Boeing that did well, they've Muilenburg the guy who lost his job to Dave Calhoun because of the 737 Max crisis in 2018, 2019. He was an internal candidate and an engineer. Steve Mollenkopf, the old CEO of Qualcomm, is running this process to find the next guy. I would say it's probably been harder than he thought, right? We haven't seen basically any development in months, and it is it is going to be tough to handicap like to answer your question directly, Shanahan is one of the leaders. I would say, Stephanie Pope, internal candidate, is one of the leaders in the clubhouse. And we'll just have to see how it develops. All right. >> We'll bring you back when we have the news. Al, thank you so much for being on the show today. I always love having you. >> Yep. See you guys. >> Time to check in on some of today's top trending tickers. Eli Lilly receiving FDA approval for its Alzheimer drug Chizumila. Yahoo Finance's Anjali Khemlani has been following that story and joins us now with more on. That's right. >> Good news for Eli Lilly. Like you mentioned finally getting that approval. We expected it after the advisory committee meeting last month in which it was unanimously recommended for approval. This is great for Alzheimer's patients. Now, the second drug on the market for patients. Just a reminder, Eli Lilly's drug was found to have a reduced cognitive decline by 35% over 18 months. It's a monthly infusion, so they do have to go to a clinical care center to receive this. Best for those age 60 to 85 years with mild dementia. And it is basically delivered until the plaque, the build up in the brain, that's what it targets. Clears up the price tag attached to that $32,000 for the year. That's a little bit higher than the now competitor Biogen and Eisai Lackenby, which has been on the market for $26,500 per year. That is delivered more frequently through infusion. So, Eli Lilly did mention, of course, that they prices will vary by individual. So that is just sort of a top line price if you will. All right. >> On to Eli Lilly there. When you take a look at shares, paring some of their earlier losses have been under pressure that will them along with Novo Nordisk on the heels of this op ed that we got from President Biden and also from Senator Sanders, targeting the cost of GLP one drugs, what can you tell us there? And just in terms of how big of a maybe an overhang this could potentially be, if we do continue to see this type of pressure? >> Yeah, that op ed was really interesting because it definitely had a lot of Senator Bernie Sanders talking points. Right. He's been harping on Novo Nordisk in particular, and kind of letting Lilly hang back, even though both do have pretty high prices for both their GLP ones. Those are for a refresher, Eli Lilly's are Manjaro and Zeppelin Manjaro for diabetes, Zeppelin for weight loss, as well as Novo Nordisk Ozempic for diabetes and Wegovy for weight loss. As you can see on your screen at or over, near or over $1,000 per month, that's the monthly prescription costs. And those are the list prices. And so that's sort of where we get into the dirty details. Now, this has been part of Senator Sanders for some time. He's been focusing on them. So he did say in the op ed that, you know, these companies basically if they don't reduce those prices, the government will be forced to then reduce it for them. And then Lilly and Novo Nordisk both gave statements to Yahoo Finance in a statement, Eli Lilly said that basically comparing list prices in the United States to other countries is, basically doing an injustice. It's too complex. And that's the equivalent of what Novo Nordisk also said that they're disappointed. That's a very difficult and complex problem. That's being oversimplified for political purposes. Very strong comments there. And this all on the heels of the Treat and Reduce Obesity Act that just got its first ray of sunshine, got passed out of the House Ways and Means Committee, which means that Medicare will finally get a chance to actually evaluate, or rather, the Congressional Budget Office will finally get a chance to evaluate the cost to Medicare for these drugs. So that bill did get reduced to kind of a limited population. But we're looking at really a shift in the focus of these drugs and the potential for government impact, as well as that we'll continue to watch right on. >> Good stuff. Thanks. >> Let's take a look at Archer Aviation. The stock moving sky high today on news that Stellantis is investing 55 million more into the EV automaker. Now, last month, Archer CEO Adam Goldstein spoke to Yahoo Finance about increasing investor interest. >> It's not just Archer that's out there building that we've seen really investment come from all over the place globally, as this has the potential to be a really large industry and really help, you know, be transformative in the way that people are traveling. >> So the excitement that we're seeing today in this investment that we're seeing from Stellantis coming on the back of a successful transition flight here for Archer, it's being hailed as a milestone year for the company. So again, the stock down pretty significantly since the start of the year. But we are seeing some optimism play out on the street more enthusiasm on Nikola shares higher today after the EV maker saying it Wholesaled, 72 class eight Nikola Hydrogen fuel cell trucks in the second quarter and that Seana was above the 60 unit high end of expectations. >> 112 during the first half. Reports of new customers too like Walmart Canada. >> Yeah I think there's lots of questions just about what exactly the future still looks like for Nikola. >> We are certainly seeing this excitement play out in the market today. But again, when you take a look even at those numbers, yes, it is coming in better than expectations, but they're still not delivering a significant number of these or getting assignments here for this, for a significant number of these trucks. 72 class eight Nikola hydrogen fuel cell trucks here. Two wholesalers during the quarter. So again, even when you take a look at that chart year to date, you're looking at a stock that's off 69. >> It's a nice pop today, but it has been hammered. >> It has been hammered for quite some time. >> and coming up shares of Paramount that's you know, that's you Sean I jumped right in. I was I was so excited I jumped in. I couldn't help myself, you know, because we're talking about Paramount. >> It seems like every single day at this point. So let's update you with what is new today. We just had this crossing earlier this afternoon, Paramount rising today on the back of a report that it is selling its Bet network for $1.6 billion. That's according to Bloomberg. Now, Paramount is in exclusive talks to sell the Black Entertainment television network to buyers that include its CEO, Scott Mills, and also another individual who runs the New York New York based private equity firm CC capital. So again, they have been rumored to have interest here. Going back to last year. Now we have that $1.6 billion. It looks like the offer that could be on the table here. So we of course will see how all this plays out because they are far from the only people who have been interested in Bet network over the last. >> Did we see those other reports say to Barry Diller, Barry Diller maybe kicking the tire, National Amusements, you know, what is Shari Redstone want. That's the question Seana. >> What is. And it doesn't seem like any just the money. >> Well is that what it is I don't know. >> It also seems like so many of these offers that have been put forward here over the last several months. Obviously we talk about Skydance. We talk about Paramount overall here and how that how those talks kind of fell apart most recently. But even with the bet, when you go back to last year, the same group had discussed an offer of just under 2 billion. You also go back to some others who have been interested in the company. Byron Allen have been interested in it. Tyler Perry and their offers have not been good enough for redstone. So to answer your question, I have no idea. >> Maybe Shari comes on the show, talks us through it always . Welcome. Moving on. Stocks rallying higher today as investors react to fresh commentary from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who cheered the disinflationary path of recent economic data. Powell, saying, said Tuesday that he is encouraged by cooler inflation, but reinforced that the central bank will need to see more evidence before cutting interest rates for more on the path ahead for the fed, let's now welcome in George Ball Sanders Morris Harris, chairman George is good to see you. So talking about the environment George, this was an interesting note in which we find ourselves in you say George, it's not Goldilocks but Winnie the Pooh would be very happy in today's environment. I will confess, George, I do have a five year old at home, but I am not. I am not that up to speed on Winnie the Pooh. Walk us through what you mean there, George? What is the Winnie Pooh environment with Winnie the Pooh and his friend Christopher? >> Robin would walk through the forest very happily, hand in hand. And that's really what's happening in the economy and in the marketplaces today, Chairman Powell is happy, inflation is headed in the right direction, but it's not there yet, American business is showing that it can make, very healthy profits and have near record profit margins, even with interest rates at what I would call 5. So, Christopher Robin and Winnie the Pooh are walking through the forest happily. Powell is pleased with the trajectory of inflation, and business, is very pleased with its ability to, earn good and growing profits, in a higher interest rate climate than many people thought. It's not Goldilocks, but it's a good, backdrop for both business and the economy right now. >> What happens next, though, George? I mean, how long can this continue? And if it can't continue, then what does that recessionary risk look like? >> There are always going to be recessions, if people think that either the, the fed or, any other exogenous body can create a, a backdrop that gives us either Goldilocks or Winnie the Pooh from now until the end of time. It's not going to happen. We do have a growth period. That's a long in the tooth one, and simply by the evolution of the stop clock is right twice every 24 hours we are headed toward, I think, a period of time where we're going to get something like a recession or a recession F that is going to dampen profits and probably hurt the stock market at the same time, but again, that's not because of policy failures. It's simply that economies and growth and, and innovation, get tired after a while. And I think late in 19, in 19, in 2024 and 2025, we're going to see that, slowing in profits and a, a dip in the stock market ahead of us, not because of the fed, or fiscal policy, but even despite it. >> And, George, your message to investors here, one message, you say stay where you are in your portfolio. If your stock holdings are in your normal range, would you say, George, you want to stay where you are, you want to stay in those positions or George, I mean, after the run we've had here in the first half, I mean, do you want to take some of those winnings, put that money to work in some new names? >> The most boring thing in the world is not not popular. Popular either. As as media or any other way. Is to say, stay where you are, but hey, we all know that trying to time the market is a fool's game. People who try to time the market end up poor, second, there is nothing in the economic, outlook that, means somebody should try to take chips off the table. You want to be a participant in the growth of America that takes place over time. You you don't want to say, gosh, I made a lot of money. I'm going to pull out and be on the sidelines. It's not that, that's not something that's smart in almost any period. So I hate to be boring and say, stay the course, but stay the course, even if it is boring. >> George, what do you think of the action, though, that we've seen in the bond market? Because we did see Chair Powell's comments on disinflation, put some downward pressure on yields today. And then you compare that to the massive runup that we saw in yields over the last two trading days. Has that build up in yields at least run its course for now? Or if we do brush up once again up against that four five level, what does that then look like for equities. >> Chairman Powell wants inflation to be dead and then he wants to do an MRI to make sure that it's dead. >> And to show the MRI to everybody so that the world at large understands that it's dead , we are probably going to see a period of time when there the fed, suppresses short term rates. But where in the fairly near future, there are fears that, a Trump administration or a second Biden administration will be fiscally profligate and that will put upward pressure on yields in the longer term part of the market. So I think we'll see 450 and above before we see 425 and below on the ten year, Treasury bond, using that as a good, bellwether. >> George, we covered the markets, the fed, Winnie the Pooh, I, we covered a lot of ground. >> George, thanks for coming on the show today. Appreciate it. >> Thanks, Josh. >> Coming up, we are checking in on the biggest names in chips. Stay tuned for market domination on the other side. >> Nvidia shares pulling back today. The AI, the AI market, darling. Falling further from that record high that it reached not too long ago. Our next guest, though, isn't worried about the bumpy path that we've seen for Nvidia over the last several weeks. He's got a buy rating on the stock, the highest price target on the street. We want to bring in Hans Mosesmann. He is Rosenblatt Securities, a senior research analyst. It's great to have you here. So when you take a look at what has been certainly a volatile couple of weeks for Nvidia, some of that sell side pressure on the stock, why isn't that worrisome to you. >> Well we're entering new territory for Nvidia, you know the valuation really out of thin air almost over the past year, the move has been such that it has, you know, people kind of worried, like, how is that even possible? And it requires you to have to have an understanding of what's going on with AI and their leadership position. So it could be a little bumpy, but from a secular perspective, for the next ten years, this is going to be, the way to play AI there at another level. And I think people have have to just get used to that. And they're not a semiconductor company anymore. They're a platform. They're all things AI. >> And Hans, you know, I'm assuming if you're bullish on Nvidia to Hans, you must be also then bullish on just the bigger megatrend of AI that you must think you know. Yes, it is this paradigm shift. And yes, Jensen Wong is right when he talks about, you know, how the next industrial revolution has begun. Hans. >> Yeah that's right. >> So there are a couple of moving parts. And so the cloud, which is where most of Nvidia's business is, is not going to be the home of all things AI as time goes on, more AI gets done. Not up there in the cloud, but in the mid edge. The far edge. And it opens up the door for more efficient solutions in terms of platform, hardware and even software. So there are other players that will benefit from that transition, such as AMD, such as ARM, a little company called lattice that we cover, so there's other participants, but in terms of the value capture of AI, Nvidia may lose unit market share, but they may actually gain value because they're they're monetizing the entire stack. That's the entire rack. The entire software that goes around that. So it's a formidable, model that I think people have yet to kind of fully grasp. >> Hans, what you just said a minute ago there that Nvidia is no longer just a chip maker. It's all things AI that has actually captured the attention of regulators around the world. And earlier this week, we got the Reuters report out that actually France is looking to, write Nvidia setting a potentially facing some antitrust charges there in France. I'm curious to you just how you're assessing that risk from an analyst perspective and what to what extent this could ultimately be a worrisome a headwind here for the stock? >> Yeah, I think that, Nvidia competitors and Nvidia observers and countries get worried about a company that is grasping or capturing all of this value. So there is a knee jerk reaction in some cases to stop that. They've already endured the US, basically with these restrictions on China, 2,025% of the business is basically gone and they're still basically sold out. So it's something to watch, but they are not being predatory in the least. Even though prices have been moving up. It's not that the price of the chip or the board of the rack that is driving this business, it's the value created by the total cost of ownership. It's a different metric that we in the semiconductor industry are not used to. Right. You can double the price of this product and it provides significant TCO performance per watt per cubic foot per dollar. Advantages that nobody can meet. Right. It's not like, there's another guy that can do it. Maybe AMD captures some share here, but that's it's a little different. But yes, it's something to monitor in France is something that kind of raises eyebrows and so on. But at the moment I don't think it's going to lead to anything because they are being they're being fair in terms of how they price their products, in my opinion, Hans, as you know, Jensen is building out this platform as he expands. >> Hans, you know, he moves into new areas, new verticals. Are there companies that you think should be worried? >> Well, so the traditional way of doing things in Silicon or, or changing so that the, the, the let's call the general purpose server market is being, you know, really destroyed in terms of value by moving to an accelerated cycle. So, you know, guys like Intel and even AMD, if AMD didn't have a GPU, for example, they'd be in big trouble, so they are changing the way compute is done. And so the next wave of where of value capture for Nvidia, if you look at, say, the cloud for example, is our networking areas, storage areas. And so you start to kind of bring in those areas in terms of value and you maximize the interface between networking and storage with the computer. The accelerated compute. So I think that the traditional networking, players and storage players probably have, to deal with this. There are ways to get around that. For example, Broadcom and Marvell, which are, you know, big players in networking. They have the ability to do custom chips. And so some of the hyperscalers don't want to use Nvidia all the time. They want to do their own custom, highly efficient, very expensive accelerators. And so there's another kind of theme that is counter to that. But it is interesting how if you look at Nvidia's roadmap, how they expect to capture not just the GPU, the compute, but the entire rack and everything that goes inside of rack and a data center. >> Hans, there's been more and more talk about some of the competitors within the space. Even when you take a look at micron, that has certainly gotten a lot of attention here. I'm curious just what you think of that comparison. And then more specifically, some of that price action that we've seen on micron since its earnings report, what is the street missing that you see given your bullish thesis there. >> So my top two picks for this year are the ones that have kind of underperformed here a bit of late. AMD and micron. So micron is an enabler. They're not a competitor to Nvidia. So they micron provides very useful and fundamental memory be it Ddr5 which is more commoditized, or this new high bandwidth memory, which the industry is currently constrained, probably sold out for the next year, maybe year and a half. So Nvidia needs Micron and Samsung and Hynix to bolster their production, get their yields right. AMD is more of a competitor. And coming from nowhere, and AMD is being helped by hyperscalers and Broadcom and some of the networking guys. As you can see, an emerging battle of the titans where a lot of the industry hyperscalers, chip companies which are feel threatened by Nvidia, are kind of teaming up to do battle with what I would call, you know, like a Godzilla, like, like, personality here, in, in Nvidia that, you know, the green, the green monster, if you will. So that's kind of how things are playing out. It'll be a battle that will last a long, long time. But I think Nvidia has the advantage here, over time you can think of this as, you know, an Apple with the iPhone and that ecosystem doing battle with Android. They kind of coexist, but, that's how I think it could play out. >> Hans. >> Great having you on the show today. Thanks for making time for us. >> You got it. >> Now, let's get to some calls of the day here. Piper Sandler downgrading CrowdStrike from overweight to neutral. Since the stock's risk reward after a strong run. And to be clear, this is Piper's Rob Owens who's been covering this space a long time covering cybersecurity names for a long time. When Rob speaks I listen. Sandra that's what I'm trying to say okay. And he basically says this is a valuation. I mean, this is a valuation call. Tells his clients, listen. He looks at the valuation relative to the software companies he covers north of 75 billion in market cap current valuation. He says, places CrowdStrike with the highest 2025 multiple on sales and among the highest on free cash flow. In other words, he thinks it looks pricey. Yeah, exactly. >> And I think that's everyone's takeaway from this call. And you can see you listen and the street listens to you because you can see that in the pressure that we are seeing on shares today off just about 1.5. But remember this is a stock that had been up more than 50% year to date. It's rallied just 10% since the announcement of its inclusion within the S&P. So clearly there has been a lot of excitement a lot of that driven by some of those underlying factors of fundamental factors that Rob owns does remain very bullish on still going forward. But again, saying that current valuation levels, it might be due for just a bit of a break here, but going forward, he's saying that he's taking an intermission prior to the second act to put it in his words, but he still believes that strong fundamental performance is going to continue here and sees a number of catalysts ahead. Well, coming up, taking a look at how to play small cap names in your portfolio next on market domination. Small cap. Simply put, are struggling to keep up with the broader market. While the S&P 500 has notched numerous record highs since the year began, the Russell 2000 has gained less than one half of 1. We're looking at how to navigate small caps in your portfolio with the Yahoo Finance playbook, joined now by Paul Baiocchi. He's SNK Alps Advisors chief ETF strategist. It's great to have you here, Paul. So walk us through exactly why maybe now investors should be rotating just a bit and be a bit more bullish on small caps, given the underperformance that we've seen now for some time. >> Well, I think you touched on it in your lead in where basically the S&P 500 continues to climb and make new all time highs. And yet the Russell 2000 small and mid caps really haven't done anything to participate in that rally. And you go back 5 or 6 years and you've basically had sideways action in small caps. And if you look at the ratio between the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500. So just divide one by the other. And we're at the lowest levels we've seen in more than 20 years. You have to go back to the end of the.com era to see any time when small caps, at least at a price level, have looked like this relative to large caps. Then you look at valuations and you look at the PE spread between large caps and small caps as defined by the Russell 2000 S&P 500. And historically speaking, when you get that type of anomalous relative valuation, it does portend to potentially strong relative performance on a go forward basis. But as always, any time there is a valuation story in the market, you have to think about what it means short term and long term valuation is not necessarily a signal for near-term outperformance, but there's reasons why small caps are relatively cheap compared to their large cap counterparts. >> What about, Paul earnings growth for the small caps? Just broadly, what do you expect versus large caps. >> Well I think the earnings growth picture for small caps is significantly muted compared to large caps. Although I will say that a lot of the large cap growth, at least in earnings in aggregate, is dragged up by the significant growth we're getting from the top of the cap spectrum. So growth expectations for the Russell 2000 and mid cap universe is much more subdued than for a large cap universe. And as we talked about there are warts in this universe. You do have a valuation story in place, but you have 9% of the Russell 2000 and regional banks. That's a segment of the market that faces significant economic headwinds. You have 40% of the Russell 2000 famously that doesn't make money. So forget about earnings growth. Just think about profitability in and of itself. And then you have 50% or so of that index which has floating rate debt. So when thinking about allocating to small and mid caps I think of a lot of allocators and a lot of advisors are trying to balance what they see as an economic cycle that might be favorable to small caps. They typically perform well when you get to the end of a fed rate hiking cycle, but also that valuation story. >> So, Paul, I guess my question to you is where are you seeing those opportunities given when you take a look at the Russell 2000? There's a heck of a lot of companies in there. When you take a look at those balance sheets, they look very different in terms of profitable, those that are profitable and those that are not. So how are you I guess determining those winners. And then when we talk about catalysts, how much of this is contingent upon the fed cutting in terms of what that catalyst is going to be? When we talk about a bit of this shift in rotation. >> Well, I think there's very simple ways to reconfigure a small and mid-cap oriented strategy to avoid some of the worst outcomes. So something that awesome the ETF offers does is it screens for companies with high ROA. So profitability low leverage so low net debt to EBITDA. Companies that pay dividends have grown their dividends and have strong dividend coverage. So you call that universe down to let's say 100, 115 names that are defined by the quality characteristics that an active manager might look for when picking and choosing in that market. And when you look historically at the risk reward profile of a quality oriented, small and mid-cap portfolio, it may not give you full leverage to a rip your face off rally and small and mid-cap stocks, but ideally, what it does through its low volatility screens as well as those quality screens, is avoid some of the worst companies in that universe and therefore some of the worst drawdowns in that universe. But in terms of catalysts, one of the things that historically has been positive for small caps is when you get this type of wide valuation gap between small and large cap companies, which we currently see. But also, if the fed does indeed start to cut rates one time, two times or more into the back half of 2024 into 2025, that should ease some of the tension economically on some of those beleaguered small cap companies. Because I mentioned 9% of the Russell 2000 is in regional banks. Well why have regional banks suffered so much over the course of the past year and a half, largely because of a mismatch between deposits, a mismatch between capital flight and importantly, a mismatch between what they've lent money at and what they're borrowing money at in terms of rates. >> All right, Paul, we have to leave it there. Thanks so much for taking the time to join us today. >> Thanks for having me. >> You got the closing bell on the other side of the break. Stay tuned. You're watching market domination. And that's the closing bell on Wall Street. And now it's market domination overtime. And take a look at where things are settled here today. It's a record setting day, actually, for the street. We're going to check in with Jared Blikre there in just a minute. But take a look at that number on the screen right now. 5500 crossing above that level, closing at a record high. And that's not all. You've also got the Nasdaq above 18,000 here for the first time, taking a look at the Dow. Not a new record here. But again closing up just around 162 points and taking a look at that intraday chart here today. You can see those gains escalating here over the last two hours of the trading session. Here to close up by just about 4/10 of a percent. Let's kick it over to Jared for a closer look at what was driving today's action Jared. >> Well thank you Shawna. You know Nasdaq excuse me Nasdaq 18,000 I remember when Dow 20,000 seemed like forever away. And well Nasdaq is right there on its doorstep. But let's take a look at the sector action first. And we'll circle back here maybe to the Nasdaq 100. Consumer discretionary was the number one sector. And guess who is in that Amazon and Tesla Tesla having its best day in a number of weeks. They're up 10% as it cracks the $200 level. But back to our sector action financials also closing above 1. And then to the downside health care down about a third of a percent energy in the red. But not seeing a lot of big movement to the downside there. And looking at some of our leaders, we have guess what, New York Fang we know who that is. Fang plus stocks. That's a chip stocks plus regional banks plus IPOs. Then disruptive tech. Then Chinese stocks. That's a pretty varied group of stocks at the very top there to the downside. Bitcoin was the biggest loser down about 2% followed by cannabis and biotech. But back to the Nasdaq 100. Just want to show you real quickly. So not a record high for Nvidia there. That's the standout red rectangle there. But let's take a look at Tesla real quick. I'll be doing a deep dive on that later with Josh here. But look at real quick. Just briefly we dipped above the inverse head and shoulders here. And it looks like we're off to the races. Got a measured move up to somewhere in the two hundreds. Deal with that in about 30 minutes. And then I just want to take a look at Chinese stocks because those have been under a lot of pressure. But not today. We see Alibaba up 2, JD.com up 1, and for the most part, a pretty green day over there. >> All right Jared thank you. It is not just the U.S. inflation forces are at play in markets across the globe. European central Bank President Christine Lagarde noted today at a panel in Sintra, Portugal, that she expects a bumpy road ahead for inflation across the euro zone through the end of the year and beyond inflation. Several emerging market economies are grappling with consequential elections, geopolitical uncertainty and FX headwinds in recent months. Joining us now, Alejo Blanco, CIO, Emerging Markets Americas at UBS. Alejo, thanks for joining us on set. I appreciate it. >> Thank you for having me. >> I thought we would start with, you know, investors, they hear emerging markets. You've been actually studying those markets for a long time. More than ten years. How have they how have they changed Alejo. How are they different than, say, five years ago? >> Ten years ago I would start by highlighting that emerging markets are not your grandpa's emerging markets. >> What do you mean by that? >> They matured quite a bit. Right? There's been an evolution of the asset class. Let me give you an example. 30 years ago, the emerging world was 3% investment grade. Today we're talking about over 50% investment grade. 30 years ago, the typical emerging market was challenged by very, very high levels of inflation, fiscal irresponsibility, irresponsibility, monetary policy, dependance on the executive power. All that has changed, inflation has come under control. We've got inflation targeting regimes and independent central banks. So this is a different asset class when it comes to investment returns. They've been pretty good when it comes to bonds. Fixed income. They haven't been as good when compared to the United States when it comes to equities. There are many reasons for that. But I think it's important to recognize that when you look at the health of balance sheets in emerging markets, they're superior today at the sovereign level, at the country level than many developed markets. And even when it comes to different companies, you have very professionally run, healthy balance sheet companies out there in the emerging markets. >> So Alejo, who's best positioned at this point just in terms of growth that we could see, given we have seen obviously an improving picture. But when you square that with the opportunity versus some of the risk that's associated with high inflation, obviously not just a problem here for developed markets, but also for some of the emerging markets as well. And then also the political uncertainty side of things as well. >> Yes, I would say political uncertainty has grown just about everywhere. Right, you could even go as far as to conclude that there's more visibility in many emerging market elections today than there are in elections in a country like the United States. Right. So I think it's a global phenomenon. Concretely, to your question on the opportunity, if you're talking about bonds, you find attractive fixed income opportunities across regions. Latin America is an area ripe for this opportunities. You find relatively high yields that are not fully, justified by the relatively solid fundamentals. Right, when it comes to equities , maybe that's the land of Asia Pacific. India is a secular area of growth that we favor. Technology in the emerging markets is dominated by Asian markets. Consider the largest chip maker in the world based out of Taiwan, the largest memory chip producer in the world, based out of South Korea. So Taiwan and Korea are some of the markets that we favor in the middle of the artificial intelligence revolution. >> You mentioned the election here as well. I mean, obviously front and center. What are some possible ramifications or impacts our election could have on the emerging markets? >> Absolutely, when you consider the vastly different views of how the US should interact with the rest of the world, Trump vis a vis Biden, you can help to conclude that there are going to be consequences right? The Biden administration, in a 2.0 version, would be, a globalist, you know, working with allies to achieve geopolitical goals. A Trump administration would be more focused on own tools looking inwards. Right. And this will have an impact on the US relationship vis a vis Mexico, China, Ukraine. These are some of the main, exponents. Right. In addition of course, to the Middle East, some winners, some losers. But overall, you know, there's simply every country in the world out there is looking at this race very, very closely because it will impact their own economies and their own political relationship with the largest economy in the world. >> Two regions that you just mentioned before, India and China. And I bring that up, just given the divergence that we're seeing in the performance of equities, there, is this a trend that you think can run for some time? And what are the implications of that? >> We think so now these are very very different markets. When it comes to the equity world. India is attractive from its secular growth perspective. Demographics reforms, geopolitical swing state status. Now you're paying hefty prices for it, right, India market wise is trading at over 21. Sorry, almost 24 times price earnings ratio, which is, you know, expensive Vis-a-vis own history vis a vis other markets. So there's a lot of good news for us. Then we think the market can continue to perform thanks to earnings growth, dynamics. You know we're penciling in 15% earnings growth this year. Next year. So this is mostly a carry play based on earnings growth China on the other hand is trading much cheaper. There's a lot of bad news in you know Chinese equity valuations. So you could get in some scenarios a sharp rerating of Chinese equities and in some other scenarios depending on geopolitical situations. Domestic politics, domestic economic dynamics, a de-rating. So you've got a broader range, I think, of outcomes when it comes to China. >> All right, Alejo, always great to have you. Thanks so much for joining us here on such a day. We appreciate the time. All right. Well Amazon closing today at a new record high as we go to break. Take a look back at the history of the e-commerce giant in our latest edition of Beyond the Ticker. >> From its start as an online bookstore to its rise in e-commerce and cloud computing, Amazon has become one of the world's most iconic brands. In 2023, the tech juggernaut generated over $575 billion in revenue and boasted more than 200 million Amazon Prime members worldwide. Beyond the ticker takes a deep dive into some of the company's biggest moments. Amazon was founded in 1994 by Jeff Bezos in his garage in Bellevue, Washington. The company was originally conceived as an online bookstore designed to compete with Barnes and Noble. On May 15th, 1997, Amazon went public via IPO at $18 per share. One year later, the company began selling CDs, marking the start of its effort to become a shopping Goliath. In 2005, Amazon launched Amazon Prime, a $79 per year membership with free two day shipping on eligible orders. A year later, Amazon launched Amazon Web Services. The platform would go on to become the top cloud computing service, ahead of those from rivals Microsoft and Google, and one of Amazon's most successful businesses. In 2011, Amazon rebranded its video service as Amazon Instant Video with access to 5000 movies and TV shows for Prime members. Three years later, Amazon acquired the video game streaming website Twitch for $970 million. Amazon then acquired high end supermarket chain Whole Foods in 2017 for $13.7 billion. It has since integrated the two companies, offering discounts for Prime members on September 4th, 2018, Amazon became just the second US company ever to reach a $1 trillion market cap after Apple reached it earlier in the year. Amazon sales and profits surged during the Covid 19 pandemic in 2020, as consumers turned to online shopping. In 2021, Bezos announced that he would step down from his role as CEO and be succeeded by AWS CEO Andy Jassy. In 2024, Amazon was added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, replacing drugstore giant Walgreens. The company continues to evolve, investing billions in AI startup anthropic, developing more smart home products, and launching an AI shopping assistant named Rufus. It's safe to say Amazon is a staple of the digital age. >> Democratic voters are growing skeptical of President Biden's chances of getting reelected. That's according to a new CNN poll. But now one Democratic lawmakers vocalizing his concerns. Democratic Congressman Lloyd Doggett of Texas calling for President Biden to withdraw from the presidential race earlier today. He to discuss with Yahoo Finance's Rick Newman and Rick, I think the question a lot of people are asking right now whether or not Congressman Doggett is really the first of what is going to be others who are putting some more pressure on the Biden administration. >> You're right. >> That's a big question right now. And when you mentioned that CNN poll finding that the percentage of voters who think Biden should simply withdraw is going up, and it's pretty high, they're probably going are going to be more polls like that, too, because the debate happened. What is it, five days ago now? And it just takes time to conduct polls so that people know what you're getting, people who know what happened and you can incorporate incorporate the latest events. And, you know, we should never make too much out of any single development. But I think what's happening in Biden world right now is concerns are rising that the dam might be about to break, and you would know the dam is breaking. I think if you see, if you start to see more, elected Democrats like Congressman Doggett coming out and saying yes, they think Biden should withdraw and especially, if you would ever see, the name brand, that Democrats in Washington, Chuck Schumer in the House, Hakeem Jeffries, anybody from Obama, Obama's, group of people, starting to say it's time for Biden to go, then that would suggest the pressure really getting heavy on Biden as and his insiders. And, you know, just to add one other little data point here, the New York Times, this afternoon just put out a story with more details than we've heard before about instances when Biden's advisers noticed that he was foggy, losing his train of thought and things like that. And this does not say, you know, this doesn't say Biden is senile. It basically says he's probably pretty normal for an 81 year old guy. He might even he might even be more healthy than average, except that he's 81 and he has an extraordinarily demanding schedule by being president. So the times is saying, yes, Biden does absolutely show moments when he's very sharp and he's assertive with other world leaders. But that even his own inner circle is starting to worry about times when he's slipping. So, there's a lot of moving parts right now, and this is pretty dynamic. >> You know, Rick, last time we spoke, you put I think it was 20% odds, Rick, that that Biden would actually step down. You still 20% lower or higher. Where are you, Rick? >> I guess I, I guess I'm going higher. Josh maybe between 30 and 40, and, you know, I take my cues from a lot of seasoned political analysts who are pointing out that, the Biden campaign was hoping that, this pressure on Biden would blow over after the terrible debate he had last Thursday. And it is not blowing over, and one thing that will really be influential is if these polls start to show and this CNN poll that Seana mentioned at the top does show, that the numbers are worsening for Biden. So he's actually losing ground in the polls because of his terrible debate performance last week. We're going to see a lot more polls in the next few days. And that is the main thing I think everybody is going to be looking for is, is there a significant worsening for Biden? And that will tell Biden's inner circle, along with all the rest of us, this is not blowing over. It might actually be getting quite a lot worse. >> Rick, always great to have your insight perspective. Thanks for hopping on. >> Hi guys. >> Joe Lonsdale, co-founder of Palantir and is the managing partner at eight VC, a venture capital firm. He recently wrote The Economist about why he is backing Donald Trump, noting the only candidate in this race whose administration is likely to restore confidence to government is Mr. Trump. Joe Joe joins us now to talk more about why he is supporting Trump in this presidential election. Joe, it is always great to have you on the show, you know, in that in that piece of the economist, Joe, you lay out a different reasons you're backing Trump. But, you know, Yahoo Finance. Joe, we've got a lot of traders, investors, business people listening, so I want to focus on that. Joe, why do you think Trump is the better option for the American economy? Joe and the American business community? >> Thanks, Josh. You know, I guess I'm a lot more focused myself on policies and rule of law than I am on the personalities. I respect people with different views on this. We live in a pluralistic country. We all work with people with different views. But, you know, on my side, I'm sick and tired of this incompetence in government. Right? We spend $7 billion, get a handful of chargers. We have $42 billion at the FCC for broadband. They can't get anything done. Of course, they could easily connect all these things with with space, but they cancel the contract. They're going to do with Starlink, because they don't like Elon. Right. It's a political thing, and then meanwhile, they, you know, start suing Elon with a DOJ for not hiring enough, you know, nonresidents when the DoD tells them not to. And you just see this like again and again and again like the chips act, for example, I think it's actually, you know, I'm not a big fan of industrial policy, but I think it makes a lot of sense in a lot of ways for our country. It's a bipartisan act, and they push the chips act ahead. And there's like 19 Di things in it. We're literally not building plants right now, Josh, because we can't find enough female construction workers. I mean, this is a joke. It's like there's like children in charge of the country. We need basic common sense back. >> And why do you think, Joe, you know, a Trump administration, you know, rectifies that changes course, cleans it up. >> I mean, you just have to be direct about what actually works in the world and not afraid to offend people by doing what's right. Like you don't. The Trump administration is not going to have plants not being built because there's not enough female construction workers. Like, listen, I think our government in general is not a competent thing. And I think the people who are going to be around Trump, whether it's Vivek Ramaswamy, whether it's my other friends who are close to him from the tech world who are getting more involved, they're going to they're going to be cutting back on this waste. They're going to be just calling things as they are and that that's that's true for domestic policy. It's true for strength around the world. One of the things I just shared on X today, I saw, you know, when Trump was talking to the Taliban and was, was, was planning to do things there, he says, if you give like me one bit of trouble, here's a picture of your house. You know not to do it. I don't think Biden is cogent enough or bold enough to interact with things in those common sense ways. I think. I think he's just very, very carefully too politically correct. He's he's never run anything in his life. So I think this administration is full of people who are more focused on virtue signaling and not focused on actually getting things done. You know, they're more focused on buying votes with student debt relief than actually doing things that are that are rational and logical for the economy. >> Talking about rational, logical, Joe, you know, one one economic policy. We know Trump believes in tariffs. And he continues to hammer the table on that. In your opinion, Joe, as someone who's supporting Trump, here tariffs smart effective policy tool in your opinion. >> You know overall overall Josh I joined most economists. And being a fan of free trade free trade has created a lot of wealth in the world. There are probably certain areas where we've had free trade, where it's great for us on Wall Street and not as great for certain communities that are competing against the rest of the world. And so, you know, I think protecting certain things domestically is a populist right policy that's very popular. It's not necessarily where I'm coming from, but but I understand where he's coming from. It's not crazy. And it it is potentially, the right thing to do sometimes to protect some of these communities. >> Let me ask you, Joe, as a Trump supporter now, any thoughts on who you would like to see as his VP? Any thoughts there? Joe Vance, Ruby Huckabee Sanders I'm friends with like 4 or 5 of these people, and I think they're all really competent. >> I think Vance is awesome. I think I don't think it's going to be Vivek, but I think he's a really important figure for. Why do you say, Joe? >> Why why do you say Vance is awesome? What do you like about Vance? >> You know, he's someone I. He worked for Peter Thiel when I was working for him before. He's smart, he's thoughtful, he's bold. I loved his book. He comes from a background, really, really, really understands the struggles of a lot of people in America who come from the working class, who come from that background. And yet he also understands the innovation world. And having been in the innovation world, like that's what America is the best in the world at. That's the thing that, like, no one else can compete with us. And if we're going to have the innovation world, you know, we'd probably look a lot more like Europe. We'd be a lot poorer, we'd be a lot more broken. Like like being able to harness the innovation world while also being able to care about, like the least well, off. I think that's an awesome combination, Joe. >> So. So you're backing Trump. What if, though, in November, doesn't work out that way as you hope for Biden wins as a venture investor? Joe, would that change where you want to invest? What you want to invest in? >> You know, I think overall the fortunately, defense has been a relatively nonpartisan area of our economy. Obviously, I think you have a little bit more peace through strength and kind of stronger defense stuff on the right. But I fortunately, I don't think that that goes totally away either. You know, you know, America is going to be strong. I think either way. So I think I think that part's strong. I think generally the value of our investments, the value of like being able to disrupt things in the economy aggressively with AI and create wealth, that that's all going to work better with more free market policy, with less law from from the regulators, with less of the administrative state randomly harassing people. I mean, you know, the sad thing is, as a venture investor, if Biden wins, we'll probably spend a lot more time and money hiring people to go to DC to argue our cases for things. It's going to be a lot more crony looking world as as we're improving these industries, we'll probably look more a lot more like China, a lot slower to disrupt and fix things. So I'm really hoping we have a more free economy instead. >> Joe, you're not based in Texas, but you're a Bay area native. You got deep roots in Silicon Valley, I'm curious to get your take about a trend or what's talked about as a trend. In May, The New York Times publishes a story, Joe, the headline some of Silicon Valley's most prominent investors are turning against Biden. They talked about some big names. Marc Andreessen, Chamath Palihapitiya, of course. David Sacks is, you know, now supporting Trump. I'm just curious, though, Joe, in Silicon Valley, are you really seeing that? Is that is that an actual trend or just a few big bold faced names? >> It's a big trend. >> Josh, I'm on a chat with about 150 people who are Silicon Valley investors and leaders, and these people are fed up the FTC is doing crazy things that are not legal to block deals. You know, one of my deals, I sold Opengov for $1.8 billion. One of the companies I started this year with one of the biggest deals in the last couple of years, thanks to Lina Khan blocking the bigger ones. I should thank her. I'm on the record board only because of her blocking bigger stuff. You know the SEC harassing people, meeting with Sam Bankman-Fried but not meeting with other crypto CEOs who didn't donate to the left. Right. This goes down the list. There's just like lawfare and corruption and waste and idiocy and Joe, Joe coming out of the state. And you know, when Obama was president, like I was in the white House sometimes talking with them, like all these guys in white House, they they want to hear from the tech world. They want to hear from you. Even if you disagree that I'm not saying Obama was someone I always agreed with. But at least there was competent people to talking with us. This administration has no idea what they're doing, and they're not interested in talking and hearing from the competent people in the innovation world. And that's a disaster. >> And Joe, those people you're talking with on those chats, are they more comfortable now saying they support Trump than maybe they would have been a few years ago? >> A lot of them are comfortable saying they're against Biden, and a lot of them are comfortable saying to us how frustrated they are with him, I think it takes a little extra bit of courage to come out and write that you're actually supporting Trump because of it, because obviously we have two flawed people and you have no perfect choice here. And I think they're still very scared to come out in public about it. But as a leader, that's my job to set the tone and to put out what other people are afraid to say. >> Joe, great to have you on the show as always, thanks for making time for us. >> Thanks, Josh. >> Time now for what? To watch. Wednesday, July 3rd. Starting off on the fed. Minutes from the June FOMC meeting are due out in the afternoon. Ahead of that, we're going to be getting some fed commentary from New York Fed President John Williams coming after today's comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressing satisfaction with inflation progress, but saying he still wants to see more before cutting rates. >> Moving over to the economy, the latest ADP employment data for June is coming out in the morning. Economists forecasting that number to rise to 165,000, giving us more labor market insight ahead of Friday's full jobs report. >> And on the earnings front, constellation Brands is reporting before the open. The beer, wine and spirits producer is announcing first quarter results. Analysts are expecting the report to highlight the durability of its beer business, driven by volume growth and higher prices. >> And finally, markets are closing early tomorrow ahead of the July 4th holiday. Our coverage tomorrow will begin at 11:30 a.m. Eastern Time, with market domination, the markets will be closed on Thursday, July 4th. Well, that'll do it for us for today's market domination. Overtime. Now, in light of tomorrow's holiday shortened trading day, we will be bringing you market domination starting at 11:30 a.m. eastern time tomorrow. >> But don't go anywhere on the other side of the break. It's asking for a trend. Stay tuned. For Hello and welcome to asking for a trend. I'm Josh Lipton. For the next half hour, we're going to be breaking down the trends of today that will move stocks tomorrow. Here are some of the trends we're going to be diving into. EV makers Tesla and Rivian. Surprising Wall Street today with better than expected delivery numbers for Q2. But overall electric vehicle demand is not out of the woods just yet. High prices and charging anxiety still keeping many on the sidelines, plus planes, trains and automobiles, airports and interstates are gearing up for a record week of 4th of July travel. We're going to discuss what complications from extreme weather and higher gas prices mean for travelers, and the sluggish housing market is taking a toll on homebuilder names. Getting a hit, with several downgrades today, as analysts expressed concerns that the slow activity could last the year. But homeowners staying put could prove a tailwind for renovators. Hurricane Beryl barreling across the Caribbean, now passing south of the Dominican Republic and the category five hurricane is expected to bring life threatening winds and storm surge to Jamaica tomorrow. Beryl is the earliest category five storm ever to form in the Atlantic, fueled by record warm waters. And joining me now is Pauline Twidell triple A senior vice president of travel. So, Paul, what kind of travel effects have we seen so far? Can you walk us through what you're seeing? >> Sure. Well, first let's talk about the numbers, we're right in the midst of, you know, 71 million people traveling for this Independence Day holiday from Saturday the 29th right through to July 7th. So tomorrow is going to be the busiest day. If we look in totality, that 71 million really is reflective of mostly road travel. People are going to be on the roads 60.6, so nearly 61 million will be on the roads. And that's a record breaking number for a totality and for road travel, also flying you know, air travel nearly 6,000,005.7 are going to be traveling by air. That's 12% higher than pre-pandemic. So we've got a lot of people traveling. And the last thing we really need is weather getting in the way. >> And that 71 million Paul. So you're saying record you're saying that's that's higher than last year. That's even higher than pre-pandemic. >> Yes, absolutely. It's 5% higher than 2023 and 8% over pre-pandemic. Over 2019. So these are really staggering numbers. >> What do you attribute that to Paula. What are the variables. The factors. >> Yeah great. Great question. You know we talk about pent up demand and people think that that's over. But it's really not you know even as a spite inflation and all the numbers we talk about, you know consumers are not willing to give up the respite that they deserve. Consumer confidence still remains quite high. And people still spending money on this very discretionary income, but they're spending money to get away and enjoy themselves and getting out of the daily grind. So Paul 71 million huge number record. >> Where are they going Paula. Do we have any line of sight. Where are the destinations. >> Yeah absolutely. You know domestically first of all like places like Seattle and Anchorage and certainly Canadian Vancouver. Those all attribute to Alaska business because this is Alaska season. Now for cruises. So Pacific Northwest is very busy. And of course we have domestic areas like the theme parks, Orlando being a top destination as well as Anaheim and out in LA. And then, you know, urban cities like New York, Denver, Chicago, people are traveling to those destinations too. Let's not forget about international travel, because international travel is equally high. London, Paris, you know, Pre-olympics, we have all this going on right now. People are really flocking to Europe, Dublin, Athens, Barcelona, all very, very strong destinations that we're seeing that people are flocking to right now. >> Any advice you can offer our viewers, Paula, about when is the traditionally least? When is the best and worst times to travel? >> Yes, absolutely. And today being, you know, tomorrow is the third. So tomorrow is the busiest time to be on the road or in the air, we're going to find a lot of bottlenecks there. We can anticipate that, you know, 30, 40, even up to 60% in some locations. Traffic delays because keep in mind, some people are on vacation traveling. Other people still, you know, working and have that rush hour traffic. So you want to stay away from those peak times. Your best time to travel is very early in the morning. Stay away from that two through seven timeframe. So or go later in the evening after 7 or 8:00 at night. So best to go in the morning and avoid the rush hour if you can. All right. >> Great advice Paula. Thanks for joining the show with that insight and guidance. We appreciate it. >> Thank you. >> The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at Fresh Record highs. Investors digesting fresh inflation. Commentary from Fed Chair Jay Powell here with more on the trading day takeaways. Yahoo Finance's Jared Blikre. >> Jared Josh we got to talk about Tesla today. Huge breakout above the psychological level of $200. And I'm going to outline the technicals here. It's a number of milestones and breakthroughs depending on how you look at it. This is not what I'm looking for. We're going to go to our Mega-caps. And here we have Tesla closing in at $737 billion. So still not in the trillion dollar club. But here we have today's price action. Let me show you a one year with some candlesticks. And this is going to help outline the pattern I'm noting here. So this would be an inverse head and shoulders here. And you can see we've clearly broken out to the upside. You can also draw a trend line all the way down here. And guess what. We also broke above that trend line. So no matter how you slice it in these two different ways, probably going to get some momentum to the upside resistance support. >> What am I looking at. >> Yeah. To the upside. We really don't have much resistance until about 265. So let me put a two year chart see if I can find 265. It's going to be about somewhere in here to the downside. 140 is a big level, but I think 150 would probably stop it. That was kind of the lower neckline of the head and shoulders. So all in all, I think we got some space to move to the upside. We got some space to move to the downside. If it's a false breakout but probably not going to stay right there. >> We got earnings coming up. Got the big robotaxi day in August Jared a lot for Tesla investors. >> Yeah a lot for and consumer discretionary. Let's not forget that Amazon and Tesla are actually in consumer discretionary. There we go. So point number two market concentration tops right there with seasonality oh 1929. You know that was the peak of the stock market back in the day. And I got two different time series, two different lines. One of them goes all the way back to the 1920s. That's the purple. And one of them is blue. This has to do with market concentration. Really difficult to do these calculations, especially with these old series. But back in 1921, guess what the biggest stock in the universe was? Give it to me. AT&T Ma Bell. So Ma Bell was such a big part of the market that it was all the way out here. And so this purple line is tracking the largest one stock relative to the 75th percentile three quarters of the way down. And then we also have this different measure that starts about what, 1960 something 1970 wait of the top ten stocks. And you can see we are currently at about 33. That is the highest level in this series. But for all the talk of concentration, is it different this time? Well, by both of these metrics, yes, this is the greatest concentration we've ever seen. Let me ask you. >> We talk about concentration a lot in the SP beyond the broad gauge. Any other signs of concentration you know, I think it spills over into everything else because when you have just a few stocks like the mega caps that have been working, so well, you tend to forget about the other ones and forget about the Russell 2000. >> What I think is interesting about this chart, this all goes back to the beginning of the Russell of in 1979 measures small caps. So you take the Russell 2000 and divide it by the S&P 500. You can get the relative outperformance or underperformance. So here in the 1970s early 80s we were seeing outperformance of small caps. Here we are seeing the opposite. This is the outperformance of those mega caps. The underperformance of small caps. So this just tells me again we've never quite seen anything like this concentration in the market. So it deserves to be handled a little bit delicately here. I will say this. I don't think it's an absolute disaster. We're seeing market rotation right now. We saw three, three quarters, three months of outperformance by the big guys. So I think we're starting to see some backing and filling here. >> Interesting third point. Here we go. >> Stock volatility. Yeah. So I'm going to dial up. Guess what. The VIX which closed right around 10 or 12. Excuse me. It dipped down pretty low today. And I'll put a three month chart with some candlesticks so we can see. And here we are. This is hard to see all the way down here. But this is not quite as low as some of the levels we were getting a month ago. But if I put a ten year chart on, you can see this is really in the lower part of the range, especially when you consider where we are coming from in the pandemic. But we are not quite back down to those levels. I want to contrast this with what's happening in the ICB of a move index. Now this is bond market volatility. So where the VIX was all the way down here. Well guess what. This is trending up a little bit. A lot of times what we've seen over the last few years bond market volatility spikes first. And then you get it leaking into equities market volatility. So while the VIX is low now maybe this is a leading indicator. >> Yeah. So my question what's the what would you expect to happen next. What's the read through for investors. >> You know I you know what I think it gets back to timing. We didn't do any seasonality. Let's do some seasonality here. We're here we're looking at the VIX. Let me show you some VIX seasonality because what we can expect now is here's the VIX map. This purple line goes all the it is basically the average of what's happened since 1990 through 2023. The blue line is what's happened. So far this year. And we're right during this period this period right here is supposed to be pretty quiet. Guess what July is supposed to be a bullish month, especially those first ten days. I think we get those. But then we start seeing some hiccups here. When the VIX spikes up, that's when we start seeing stocks roll over. And then by the time we get to September October that's going to be those critical two months before the election. Guess what. That's when the VIX starts spiking historically. See no reason why it couldn't happen. But we'll have to see if it does. >> All right Jared. >> All the trading takeaways. Thank you my friend. Perfect. Coming up a pulse check on the renovation minded homeowner with the co-founder of Angie's next on asking for a trend. >> Ever wonder why a stock suddenly drops double digits? >> Or Bitcoin unexpectedly hits record highs? >> We are unpacking the catalyst driving daily market action and explaining the chain reaction. Why are oil prices trending lower despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, or why a company's stock is up even though it missed on earnings? >> Insight from top strategists, economists and business leaders will help you make the smartest choices for your portfolio. >> This is catalyst. >> Tune in daily at 10 a.m. Eastern on Yahoo Finance. >> Home listings. Just keep rising. But much of the dismay of would be home buyers. Property prices are as well. It seems nothing. Not even some of the highest mortgage rates of the past two decades can stop the continued climb of home prices. Joining us now to help figure out what homeowners are thinking and where they're putting their money, is Angie co-founder Angie Hicks. Angie, it is good to see you. So you look at this housing market. Angie, you know, I don't doubt the demand is there, but 30 year fixed. Angie we're here at 7.13% for a lot of people. I just think affordability is an issue. Has that meant. Angie, we just see this trend of people who are thinking, you know what, I can't afford to buy that new home. Instead, I'll put my time, my effort, my money into upgrading and renovating the home. I have. >> You're definitely going to see people that are had been would have normally thought about moving. Consider renovation. I mean, if they're thinking about taking and trading a mortgage that was at three and a half or 4% and trading it for 7, that is real money. That could be $12,000 a year, increased expense on that mortgage to give you a comparable you could renovate your bathroom on average for about $12,000. And that can make a huge improvement in the livability of your house. So you really need to analyze why you want to move and make sure you're moving for the right reasons. >> Angie, when people do decide to renovate, do we have a sense of what they traditionally are looking at? Renovate, is it bathrooms? Is it kitchens? And what are the smart rooms to innovate? Just in terms of a return on investment, right. >> When we look at our state of home spending, bathrooms are always in the top five most common projects. People tackle. It's a highly used room. Kitchens are always in the top ten, a little more pricey, but it is the heart of the home and it's a place where you spend a lot of time with your family. So an important spot to renovate. And both of those are things that you do not want to do necessarily, right? When you're ready to move, you want to make sure you're going to live in your house for a while to make sure you get that return on investment. But if you're making that decision, should I move or should I renovate? Those are good items to consider. >> What about remodel? You know, outdoor remodeling, Angie, you know, remodeling the deck. Still popular, that is. >> That became really popular during the pandemic. And we're seeing that continue to hang over, in fact, when people look at their five year plans for big renovation projects, the top three are bathrooms, kitchens, and large outdoor, large outdoor renovations. So thinking about that outdoor kitchen, a new patio, new landscaping, those are all really good investments into your home. >> Do you expect, Angie? You know, just looking out, you think about home renovation, home upgrades. Do you do you see that big trend continuing to be strong in the years ahead? >> Well, it's interesting. So we saw a big pop during the pandemic and I think a lot of people thought that spend on your home would start to decrease. As we got back out and were traveling and doing a lot more things. But what we've seen is that stayed at this elevated level, and I continue to I expect it will continue. In fact, 30% of the people in our most recent State of home spending report commented that they plan to do increased spending on renovation instead of moving because of interest rates. >> Angie, let's say you're a viewer. You're listening to us right now. You've been kind of thinking about doing a big home upgrade, a big home renovation. Give us some guidance, Angie. What are some some basic tips and tricks people need to think about? >> Well, you really want to think about how you're using your home and what can be the biggest return for you and your family, and how you live in it. You want your house to be livable and comfortable for you, so think about things and be clear about how much you want to spend. I think a lot of times we think about, I'd like to remodel my kitchen. Oh, that means I'm going to spend $30,000 or more. Not necessarily. So think about what the important things are in that renovation that you're going to do an easy one. Don't change the footprint of your kitchen. Don't change where the plumbing is. And the electrical, etc. and you're going to save a lot of money down the road. If you can refurbish the cabinets you have versus putting in new ones. Another big expense saver. So it's really prioritizing. What elements are important to you and laying your budget against it. >> And our last question for you, you took this idea and you turned it into a business. And I'm sure it was not easy for any entrepreneurs who are listening right now. Angie any guidance you would offer? >> You know, I think it's when you're starting a business, it's a lot about perseverance. You have an idea. You've got to stick with it. And you need to make sure that you're realizing exactly what you're good at and what you need to build in your team. I think having a really good team around you that can balance and add to what you offer is important, and sometimes that can be hard when you're first starting out. So making those initial hires is really important. >> All right. Great tips and tricks Angie. Thanks so much for joining us today. Appreciate it. >> Thank you. >> And coming up more asking for a trend on the other side. >> Ever wonder why a stock suddenly drops double digits or Bitcoin unexpectedly hits record highs? We're unpacking the catalyst driving daily market action and explaining the chain reaction. Why are oil prices trending lower despite ongoing geopolitical tensions? >> Or why a company's stock is up even though it missed on earnings? Insight from top strategists, economists and business leaders will help you make the smartest choices for your portfolio. >> This is catalyst. >> Tune in daily at 10 a.m. Eastern on Yahoo Finance. >> A new chart from Wells Fargo showing the potential rebalancing of earnings growth in the S&P 500. Yahoo Finance's Seana Smith joins me now with a closer look. Seana. >> Yeah Josh when you take a look at this. So a lot of the focus on Wall Street is going to be shifting to earnings here. When we kick off second quarter earnings season next week. And I want to bring up the growth expectations that we got from Wells Fargo today because I think it's significant. A lot of times when we're talking to strategists day in and day out, our question is whether or not the narrow concentration within the market, how big a risk maybe that poses to the broader market at this point. And what we're seeing here in terms of those expectations from Wells Fargo, is that we are going to see more of a broadening in terms of that earnings growth. It's not only going to be technology and communication services, which it very much has been driving the earnings growth. As you can see, going back to the third quarter of last year and through the first quarter of 2024. But as you look ahead to the second quarter and even through just over the next year, obviously we are starting to see in terms of those forecasts, expectations, we are expecting to see more of a broadening out in terms of the participation, profitability that we are seeing beyond tech and communication services. And the reason why this is so significant is because this really supports so many of the calls that we have gotten most recently about arguing about the fact that, hey, even though we're at record highs close today at another record high for the S&P and the Nasdaq, we still see this momentum continuing. And that is a lot of that really driven by the strong earnings% growth that we have seen. But also what we are forecasting to see in terms of that forward earnings growth over the next 12 months. So again, a broadening out here of that earnings growth is really a signal here a bullish signal to Wall Street. >> All right Seana also a new step in Apple's relationship with OpenAI. Just learning that the tech giant has secured an observer role on OpenAI's board. This is according to a report from Bloomberg that seat is going to go to Phil Schiller Apple's former marketing chief. Schiller is a long time tested veteran in Cupertino, according to Bloomberg. This job would allow someone to attend board meetings without being able to vote or exercise other director powers, but certainly would would potentially give this person a whole lot of insight, of course, this move also following Apple's announcement at its big software show in June that it was going to offer OpenAI's ChatGPT in its devices. >> Seana and Josh, this really puts Apple on par with Microsoft in terms of that observer role that they're going to have on OpenAI's board. And like you just said, this person does not have voting rights. But again, they gained that valuable insight into OpenAI and how exactly the business is being run right now. And when we talk about the impact obviously OpenAI has had on the AI story, has been forefront a leader within this space. So again, Apple now having this observer role, a seat on the board, very significant. And you would think potentially that the Street could be viewing this as a bullish move here for the tech giant going forward. >> Yeah, of course there were so many questions about Apple's AI strategy and that big software. So show with announcements like this partnership with Sam Altman and OpenAI, Tim Cook trying to trying to kind of allay some of those concerns and lay out for the street, hey, we do have an AI strategy. We do have AI features. Now, the big question is, does it help create a meaningful upgrade cycle for those new iPhones, which we expect in September. Seana thanks so much and thank you for joining the show today. That's a wrap on today's ask for trend. Remember in light of tomorrow's holiday shortened trading day we're going to bring you market domination. Started at 11:30 a.m. eastern tomorrow. For now have a great night. |
C5hJ96jAwGE | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5hJ96jAwGE | 2024-07-03 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Stock market today: S&P 500, Nasdaq hit fresh highs as stocks head into holiday with a bang | k City. I'm Brad Smith, alongside Madison Mills. This is Yahoo Finance's flagship show. The Morning Brief. >> It may be a shortened trading week and day, but stocks are not taking a breather here. You're taking a look at the S&P after it closed above the 5500 level. For the first time ever on Tuesday, marking its 32nd record close of the year. The Nasdaq surpassing 20,000 for the first time ever as well. So let's get to it with the three things that you need to know for this Wednesday morning. We've got Yahoo Finance's Jared Blikre and Jennifer Schonberger and Josh Lipton with more dot futures trading close to the flatline on the shortened trading day. >> Job creation slowing for a third straight month. The U.S. added 150,000 new private sector jobs in June. That's below the 165,000 Wall Street expected, and even below the prior month. Revised levels pay gains for both job stayers and job changers. They slowed. Meanwhile, 238,000 people filed for new unemployment benefits last week. That is more than expected and higher than the prior rating. So the data showing some weakening in the labor market and all of this comes ahead of Friday's big jobs report that Chair Jay Powell said Tuesday he's encouraged by the latest cooler readings on inflation, but the central bank will need to see more evidence before cutting interest rates. >> Powell said that the last two inflation readings in April and May, quote, do suggest that we are getting back on a disinflationary path. The comments come days after the latest reading of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Core PCE rose 2.6% in May, the slowest annual gain in more than three years. And today, Wall Street is watching for minutes from the Fed's last meeting, which could provide clues about how policy leaders are thinking about the timing of rate cuts and shares of Paramount Global rallying on news of a potential merger, according to reports. >> Production company Skydance has reached a preliminary agreement to buy Shari Redstone's National Amusements, the controlling shareholder of Fairmount. This comes after merger talks, remember, fizzled out last month. If that deal goes through, Skydance would then plan to merge with Paramount Global, which would be subject to approval by Paramount's special committee. >> Our top story this morning. We're tracking stock futures. They are a little bit weaker. The latest jobs data came in weaker than expected for the month of June. This came in the form of ADP private payrolls, 150,000 jobs added last month in the private payrolls, versus the 165,000 expected by the street. Now another sign of a cooling labor market and investors are hoping this could push the fed to cut rates sooner rather than later. Well, I regret to inform you that the fed is probably not going to pay too close attention to the ADP number as much as they do some of the other employment readings, notably here, when we're thinking about the more cyclical and weekly jobless claims. But then also the all important monthly jobs report, which is going to come out on Friday here and give us a little bit more of a sense of where the unemployment rate that the fed is tracking is trending right now, too. >> Yeah, it's going to be critical because continuing claims here have really surged over the course of the past four weeks to their highest level since November of 2021. This is also expected to continue, given some seasonal factors that are going to weigh on the data. For example, auto makers are set to shut down their plans for some manufacturing and maintenance updates over the summer. That could lead to a surge in those initial jobless claims moving forward, as that group of individuals who might get impacted by that seasonal maintenance over the summer could seek their own initial jobless claims. That could lead to some upside surprises in that number. And this feels critical because there's been this question and Stuart Kaiser came on and talked about this from Citi, about whether the labor market slowness that we are starting to see is indicative of a broader slowdown in this economy that could be a really negative factor for the Federal Reserve, as they do try to have this Goldilocks impact on the economy. Kaiser saying that the labor market could be our sign into whether or not we are at a tipping point or if it's just casual weakness. Yeah, looking through some of the other details of this private payrolls print, the chief economist over at ADP, Neil Richardson, had actually mentioned within this release that job growth has been solid but not broad based here. >> Had it not been for a rebound in hiring in leisure and hospitality, of course, the hardest hit sector on the onset of the pandemic, if it had not been for that sector, June would have been a downbeat month, she noted. So we're actually going to have much more in that conversation, of course, with Nela Richardson, people can stay tuned during the 11 a.m. hour where we will have her speaking with us and giving a little bit more of her insight into this. But of course, you think across some of the different industries that saw the biggest increases, the changes by industry construction was up by about 27,000 services. That was up by about 15,000 for at least. Trade, transportation and utilities. And we'll see exactly what this may carry over into to some extent into that monthly employment situation that we get on Friday as well. >> Absolutely. Well, the federal Reserve meeting minutes are going to be released, set to be released this afternoon after Fed Chair Powell reiterating the need for more data before the central bank can really loosen monetary policy here to discuss. We've got Yahoo Finance's very own Jennifer Schonberger Jennifer good morning Maddie. >> Fed chair Jay Powell said Tuesday he's encouraged by the latest cooler readings on inflation, but that the central bank needs to see more evidence that inflation is dropping before cutting interest rates. Take a listen. >> I think the last reading and the one before it to inflation, the one before it to a lesser extent, do suggest that we are getting back on on a disinflationary path. We want to be more confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2. Before we start the process of reducing how tight our policy is of loosening policy. >> Powell's comments come days after the latest reading on the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. The Personal Consumption expenditures index, excluding volatile food and energy prices, which showed prices rose 2.6% in May, down from 2.8% in April, marking the slowest annual gain in more than three years. Inflation is slowing after showing signs of stalling in the first quarter, which had caused fed officials to look at holding rates higher for longer. Powell says the fed wants to understand whether the levels the fed is seeing on inflation are a true reading on what's actually happening with underlying inflation, and reiterated that the fed can afford to be patient given a strong job market that's gradually cooling. Still Powell's comments cheered investors looking for rate cuts later this year, with investors pricing in nearly a 60% chance of the first rate cut in September. Today, we will get minutes from the central bank's last policy meeting, though those may be a bit dated because we did not have the latest reading of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge core PCE at the time, guys. >> All right, Jennifer, thank you so much for joining us. We really appreciate it. Well stocks are set to open at all time highs after the S&P 500 closed above 5500 for the first time in history. But taking a look at the futures right now we are seeing the market paring those gains that we saw earlier in the day off of some of the data that is coming out. We're also seeing moves in the Treasury space. So we're going to discuss all of that and more with our next guest who does see more upside to come. Joining us in studio we've got Elise Ozumba. Elise. Thank you so much for joining us. I should mention you're with JP Morgan wealth Management and a global investment strategist there. So talk to me about the data we got this morning because we are seeing treasuries falling a little bit off of it. How big of an impact do you think that this could have? >> I think the bigger picture is the primary driver of the story. Right. We too are going to be hyper focused on what we see out of the employment data come Friday. But all in all, we continue to see a labor market that remains rather robust and working in the favor of consumers with positive real wage growth. And I think we're finding ourselves in kind of this healthy slowdown that ultimately gives one of those key ingredients for the soft landing and so how long would that slow down kind of if it does continue for too long, at what point does it become an unhealthy slowdown? >> Yeah. >> The thing about labor market moves is they can happen really, really quickly. But you're not seeing that dramatic deterioration in things like unemployment yet. I think if you were to see a meaningful rise in the unemployment rate above 4, that would maybe start to stoke some concern and maybe put that fed, put back on the table. But for now, I think, all things considered, we remain confident about this rebalancing of labor supply and demand. >> How does that play into your take on the equity market, given that we have hit these recent all time highs? But there is this constant question about valuations and concentration. >> We're actually pretty comfortable with valuations where they are right now. I think in an absolute sense. You of course can point to something like PE ratios and say, oh my gosh, relative to history, they are elevated and particularly when you're comparing that to where bond yields are right now, I think it causes some pause for investors. But in an environment where inflation concerns and risks are perhaps as great as recession risks, neither of which we think are are particularly meaningful. Our base case is for a soft landing. I think so long as that remains part of the equation, these valuations are actually fairly justifiable, particularly because the rally is being driven by these really profitable companies that are surprising to the upside. >> Right. And there was a larger question of for investors out there trying to figure out or wrap their minds around whether or not we could continue to see new all time highs if we did not see the fed signaling that they were ready to cut here. But for Fed Chair Jay Powell, who's coming out in Portugal yesterday of all places, one even say this on our home soil, coming out in Portugal and saying, hey, we need to see more evidence. Is the more evidence just the amount of data or is it more deterioration? >> I think it is a continuation of the trend that's resumed in the second quarter of this year. What we've seen from the inflation data in recent releases suggests that maybe the Q1 sort of hot streak was more of a blip on the radar. So I think what Powell and the rest of the FOMC are really looking for is just this ongoing cool down, but with PCE at 2.6, when you're looking at that core measure, I think that is a rate of inflation that corporate America is rather comfortable with. And you're seeing that show up in, you know, resilient profit margins and ongoing rolling recoveries in earnings. >> Speaking of those rolling recoveries and earnings, though, I am curious the degree to which earnings are going to drive the market heading into the next couple of months here, or is it going to be politics or the fed? Which of those three do you think defines the next, let's say six months? >> Sure. So in the near term, I think with all of the uncertainty that's kind of rearing its ugly head related to the elections, that very well could stoke more volatility. I think as investors continue to play this guessing game of not if but when the fed will cut interest rates that might cause some fluctuations in markets. But at the end of the day, we think that the next big catalyst for equities is going to be the earnings season. And when we pencil in our, you know, outlook for the year ahead, it's really that earnings component. And not the valuations. That's driving our outlook for the S&P 500 to hit more all time highs over the next 12 months. >> With earnings season being the catalyst. What do you think that the theme that prevails this earnings season is? >> Look, in Q1 we saw a lot of focus and mentions of things like artificial intelligence. So investors should probably continue to be really focused on not just whether those companies are talking about it and thinking about incorporating it into their business models, but whether they're actually applying it in real time, that adoption will, you know, be a process measured in years. But nonetheless, we do think that it's going to continue to offer tailwinds for the enablers, but also start to cause some beneficiaries in terms of productivity increases or cost efficiency efficiencies to emerge across sectors. >> Thank you so much. It's always great to have your insights. Really appreciate you coming in studio. >> Thank you. Yeah. >> Elise Hosenball, who is the J.P. Morgan Wealth Management Global investment strategist joining us here in studio everyone, let's talk a little bit about Paramount as we're tracking that this morning, two shares of Paramount Global rallying on revived merger talks. According to reports, production company Skydance has reached a preliminary agreement to buy Sheri Redstone's National Amusements, a controlling shareholder of Paramount. Now, if that deal goes through, Skydance would then plan to merge with Paramount Global here with some analysis. We've got Gita Ranganathan, who is the Bloomberg Intelligence senior media analyst. Gita, just take us into what is finally happening here. It seems like I mean, I feels like we've been going back and forth on this since the Obama administration. So what exactly does this mean for investors out there? But also perhaps for consumers? >> Yeah. Thank you so much Brad. Good morning. So yeah, this you're absolutely right. This has been dragging on for months and months right now more than six months I would say. And this is basically what we're seeing is a re-engagement, with Skydance Media from the Redstone family. Remember this had been completely the talks had completely broken down just about three weeks ago. We were almost at the finish line, and in the last minute you had Shari Redstone kind of swooping in and say, no, no, go, to a deal, which she had principally agreed, so again, there's a lot of uncertainty here. Shari Redstone will call all the shot. But what we are seeing in terms of what this means for investor, again, with Skydance, what we've constantly seen is that they are proposing a deal which basically favors Shari Redstone, who is the controlling shareholder, favors her over everybody else. So it favors her over class A shareholders as well as class B shareholders. And that is something that has the potential for attracting a lot of lawsuits. And that is something that, you know, has made Shari Redstone extremely wary, and so it looks like this time around there is much stronger indemnification language in the agreement that should or could potentially protect her from a lot of the upcoming litigation. But again, none of the deal terms really are very clear at this point. Other than Skydance offering about 1.75 billion for National Amusements, which is again the parent company of Paramount, and that there is this 45 day, you know, kind of go shop, period, I think what it means for consumers, again, is just a whole lot of uncertainty. What we've seen Paramount do recently is they've raised the prices on their Paramount Plus streaming service, so again, what we're seeing is, you know, streaming products all across the board, higher prices, not really a good thing for consumers. >> It's Madison, it's great to speak with you. Thanks for coming on. I'm just interested in your take on the degree of the upside move that we're seeing in the stock off of this news. It's up over 13, obviously surging overnight and into the pre-market here. What does that tell you about sentiment from these shareholders. >> Sure, Maddie. So I think there you know shareholders obviously are just excited that you know M&A is back again on the table. I think just over the past few days, we've kind of seen a kind of a change. I think in overall sentiment there is obviously now this specter of kind of a Trump, possibly a Trump administration, and that obviously will ease the regulatory climate. And maybe that's part of the thinking for Skydance and Shari Redstone, as well. But the one thing that we have to remember is that the longer and longer this whole process kind of kind of drags out, the less and the less. Value that the assets will have. And I think Shari Redstone realizes that she's been publicly negotiating for six months. That's something that's highly unusual in the media landscape in any M&A deal for that, for that matter, so for her to come that far and then just drop everything again, that was obviously it created huge, overhang on the stock. And I think she's realized that, which is why she's back at the negotiating table. >> Wow. Okay. And so now as we're kind of really trying to wrap our minds around what this means for the larger media landscape, I mean, this was one of the last major deals that seemed like was was waiting to finally get over the goal line here. I mean, it's not signed, sealed, delivered just yet, but is this the end of the big dealmaking or should we expect more? >> I think we can expect a lot more. And I only say that because, you know, media is really in a bad place right now. And that's traditional media. So we've seen a kind of the linear network business really being in secular decline. We're seeing more and more people leave the traditional pay TV ecosystem as they kind of migrate to streaming, and that's really not good for companies such as Paramount, such as Warner Brothers, discovery, such as NBC, which have huge exposure to the linear TV model. So obviously, again, it's going to depend a little bit, Brad, on the regulatory climate, but I think, if it becomes, you know, much more favorable, I think we're going to see a whole slew of deals, which will include a lot of these legacy media players, whether that's, you know, Paramount, Warner Brothers, discovery, maybe Sony, maybe Comcast and NBC. So I think there's a whole lot more to come. >> Really great insight. Geeta, thank you so much for taking the time. Geetha Ranganathan, who is the Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Media Analyst great to see you this morning. >> Thank you. Certainly everyone. >> We're just getting started here on the morning brief coming up, shares of Constellation Brands moving higher on the back of its earnings. We have analyst reaction coming up next. And we'll get the latest read on activity in both services and manufacturing sectors, what this means for the markets and the economy. More broadly later on in the show. We've got all this and much more. You're watching Morning Briefing. >> It's a jam packed hour. >> Focusing on the biggest movers and shakers on Wall Street. >> This is market domination. And here every day is game day. >> We have one hour left until the market closes. >> It's game time for investors to make their final plays. >> The clock is ticking, and we've got you covered with our quarter by quarter playbook. >> We're bringing you in on all the market action with step by step analysis of our biggest trending tickers and expert insight into the day's biggest headlines. >> We'll bring you the closing bell and get you to the finish line. >> This is market domination. >> Tune in daily from 3 to 4 p.m. eastern. >> We're taking a look at shares of Constellation Brands this morning. The stock up over three. And a quarter percentage points after posting better than expected profit for its fiscal first quarter and reiterating guidance for the full year here for deep dive into the latest report, we are joined by Philip O'Fallon, Citi's U.S. beverages and household products and personal care research Analyst. It's great to speak with you. This morning. Thanks for coming on. So I know that you mentioned that the beer scanner data was a little bit of a concern. What do we know now about the degree to which beer impacted Constellation Brands off of this print? >> Yeah, absolutely. Good morning everyone and thanks for having me. So look the quarter was very solid from Constellation Brands. There was some concern because the track channel data, which is tracked by Nielsen and Sakana, show a little bit of a slowdown, particularly into April and May, but the quarter was better than expected. They reported 8% year over year sales growth in the beer business, and 6.4% Depletions growth, which is a measure of volume. And those were very strong results and better than expected expectations that were more in the 5.5% range. So again, continue very strong trends for the beer business driven by the Modelo Especial brand, which was up 11% in the quarter. Yeah >> Also craft spirits portfolio achieving double digit growth in dollar sales. They mentioned that kind of outperformed what they were expecting on the higher end of the spirits segment there. What is the trend that you're tracking within that portion of the business? >> Yes, Brad. So that part of the business is part of the wine and spirits segment, which overall has been underperforming. And it's mainly driven by the fact that the biggest part of the wine and spirits business, which by the way, is only 20% of the company sales, is the wine side. So it's the Woodbridge brand. But as you said, the side, which is the premium spirits side of the business, has been doing extremely well, is up double digit. There issue in that part of the segment is that it's small and it doesn't really drive a lot of the segment sales, but they continue to grow well, particularly with the two big brands that they have there, which are High West in Whiskey and Me Campo and Casa Noble in tequila. >> I want to talk about some potential catalysts for this stock moving forward, because you say that you are listening in for innovations to come. Just give me some context, because I obviously don't cover this area every single day. The way that you do. How much do those innovations drive sales versus just the bread and butter? Typical bottle of Corona sales? >> Yeah, absolutely. >> That's a very good point. Like historically, innovation has been driven about 20% of the company sales growth any given year. Last year they had a very important innovation with Modelo Oro, which is a low calorie, low carb version of Modelo Especial, and that was particularly successful last year. And to last summer. This summer. The big innovation is going to be Corona sambrell, which is a citrus brewed version of Corona, which, you know, it's a very drinkable, very summery and, really good timing with with the launch ahead of 4th of July and, and the summer season, you know, this is going to be, I think, a big summer for consumption. >> And it's primarily driven by what we're seeing in sport and the Olympics. How does this company have anything to benefit at least kind of secondary wise, from what's taking place within this massive four year event? >> Yeah, absolutely. Look sports, sporting events tend to be like a driver of social gathering and a driver of, occasions for drinking, for the beer business, when you think about their geographic exposure, they're, they're essentially entirely US based. So for them, they wouldn't have direct implication from the events from the Olympics in Paris. But there will be some secondary impact, as you said, from people gathering and watching the Olympics or more recently, the Copa America, which has been played in the US. And it's an event that tends to drive a lot of attention, particularly among Hispanic consumers. And constellation tend to skew a little bit more to Hispanic, consumer, with 60% of their consumer base being, in that part of the population. So to me, you got Copa America, you got the Euro Cup in, in Europe playing right now, and now you got a Summer Olympics in Paris. All those could drive more social interaction and ultimately more beer drinking occasions. You know, as I'm looking at the fiscal 2025 guidance, assumptions here, one of the major things that we've heard as a theme over the course of this earnings season, is about capital expenditures here, and they're looking for that to come in at about 1.4 to $1.5 billion, >> and that includes some, some other factors as well. But I bring that up because do you think the next innovation from constellation Brands comes homegrown, or is it via an acquisition? >> Yeah. Look, when you think about their their CapEx spending is really to expand their Mexican, brewing operation. So they right now they have two facilities in Mexico where they produce all their Corona and Modelo brands, which are one in Obregon and one in Nava. They are opening a third manufacturing facility in Veracruz, which is in the southeast of Mexico. And that should help have give the company enough capacity for them to drive further innovation. Again, there's been an area where they they've stepped up innovation more recently, in recent years, as I mentioned, modelo last year, Corona some brew this summer, if you go back a couple of years. They launched Corona Premier, which is also another low calorie, low carb, innovation. So I would expect their innovation to come more internally. So, from their own brands. And from an acquisition standpoint, in the past, they've done a few acquisitions in the beer business. The last one was, the acquisition of Ballast Point in 2016. They haven't really been successful. So I would think they will probably continue to push forward on innovation on their core Mexican beer portfolio. >> Good note there. Filippo. Thanks so much for taking the time here. This morning. Great to see you, Filippo, for U.S. Beverages and HPC Research Analyst at Citi. Appreciate it. Another ticker. We're watching this morning is Eli Lilly. Shares are up right now fractionally after the Food and Drug Administration. The FDA approved the pharma companies Alzheimer's drug after facing multiple challenges in its path to market. Health reporter Anjali Khemlani has the details. Hey, Angie. >> Hey, guys. Yeah, the good news for Lilly. Of course. Another drug for them that gets the FDA stamp of approval. And this time the Alzheimer's drug, which has been struggling to get to market. It's been delayed a couple of times, but we've also seen that with competitor La Combi, that's from Biogen and Eisai. And that is what this new drug, Kissin LA is going to be competing against. That is a market that is pretty tough right now. We've seen La Cambe struggle to really gain more following or, sorry, more prescriptions for that. And what we know is that Eli Lilly is priced a little bit higher, in fact. So that's going to be an interesting market for them. And just to recap what we know about this drug, it helps reduce cognitive decline by about 35% in 18 months. It's a monthly infusion just like its its competitor Lakshmi. But that's a twice monthly infusion. So you do have that burden of getting to a clinic for that, it's for the senior population 60 and older and does treat mild dementia. So this is another drug that has to be used earlier on in the diagnosis for Alzheimer's. So that's something to keep in mind for who gets access to it. We also know of course, that there are scans and the like that have been obstacles and hurdles for patients to get on this, but this is good news for the market because obviously more competition out there. Just a quick note to look at those prices. $32,000 a year for the new drug, meanwhile, can be at 26.5. So a little bit of a discount there for the drug that's been on the market longer. Good news for Lilly on two counts. One it is now in this new space. Alzheimer we know of course is an area that has been begging for some innovation for some time. But also for Lilly, which we know is on a tear because of Glp1. And now adding this to the bucket for its revenue. >> Anjali, thank you so much for joining us on that. We really appreciate it. A huge update for one of the names you're covering all the time. Thanks so much, Onge. We're going to get to the opening bell here on Wall Street happening right now. So let's do a quick check of the markets. You're looking at a mixed picture across the major indices. The S&P just hovering above that flat line. The Nasdaq just hovering below the flat line here I want to take a quick look at what we're seeing in the Treasury space. Because we know that yields were falling after the jobs numbers coming in and continuing claims in particular hitting the highest highs since November of 2021, you're still seeing that downward pressure, particularly in the ten year yield and also the 30 year. So looking at the longer end of the curve in terms of the pressure on treasuries following this morning's data. But let's get to Yahoo Finance's Jared Blikre for a broader look at what's moving markets Jared thank you Maddie. >> Not surprisingly markets are a bit quiet now I'm looking at the Dow behind me. This is over three days up about three quarters of 1. Just want to show you the Nasdaq 100 real quick passing 20,000 closed above that level yesterday. And finally the S&P 500 over these last three days. You can see it's been from the lower left to the upper right. And yesterday was the 32nd record close of the year. So really stacking up there. And I want to focus on the sector action today. The number one sector consumer discretionary that's XLI. That was up a pretty big yesterday as well. That was a leader yesterday. And I've been tracking on this five year chart. Well that's materials right there I want to pull up XLI. And on this five year chart we can see a lot of these sectors have formed cups. But you know you'll notice that this high right here is lower than this record high over here. So a little bit of a different pattern but could be setting up for a longer term breakout. But just looking at the three month chart here you can see finally break into the upside. We got a lot of records with respect to some of the megacaps here, but I do want to get to our meme stocks because cost is definitely perking up. If I sought out an equal weight basis, you can see it as our number one stock here, up 33. And I was looking at the episode of GameStop surging recently from here. This is cost. So from this low to this high was 200% GameStop in the same period went from all the way up to 400. But this as we know, meme stocks kind of go up in concert. And so is this a next play? Well, at least today it is, guys. >> All right, Jared Blikre, thanks so much. Tracking all things around the opening bell. Hey for anyone wondering who rang the opening bell today, it was the United States Coast Guard at the NYSE Macy's who's offering the fireworks this year in New York. Going to be ringing the closing bell over there. All right, everyone, we're also watching airlines this morning. Shares of southwest. They are on the move fractionally higher right now by about 9/10 of a percent. After the airline said it's going to implement what they're calling a shareholder rights plan. And this is an effort to fend off activist investor firm Elliott Managemen. Shareholders will be entitled to purchase one new share for every share they own at a 50% discount. But that's only if Elliott or another investor acquires at least 12.5% of the company. All right, so they're calling it a shareholder rights plan. What you should know this as more colloquially is a poison pill. Nice, Brad. Yeah, I mean, that's what it boils down to. They're trying to make sure that they can fend off any major type of activist play that would impact the airline operator. The seats on the board, and especially if Elliott were to assume a certain position, 12.5. In this particular case, of the outstanding shares of the company. >> That's exactly right. And it's interesting because, I mean, our succession fans out there, like myself, are going to be familiar with the hostile takeover. But the poison pill would protect against that. However, obviously you can tell by the name not always giving them the best overall outlook, but it does enable the shareholders to potentially get the best deal possible here. I do want to pull out a quote here because we heard executive Chairman Gary Kelly saying, in light of the potential for Elliott to significantly increase its position in southwest, the board did determine that adopting the rights plan is prudent to fulfill its fiduciary duties to all shareholders, and the board does continue to believe it has the right strategy, the right team in place, the plan would be triggered if a person or group does acquire a stake of over 12.5% of the firm moving forward. And like you mentioned, Brad Elliott disclosing roughly $1.9 billion stake back in June. In that letter to the board and said they feel that their suggestions could boost the stock by over 75% over the course of the next year. But the details of those plans, they included them. But, you know, obviously Southwest Board saying that they've they've got things under lock and key here. Yeah. All right. Well we are taking a look at major indices here. Flipping over to the green following the opening bell you can see the S&P and the Nasdaq though just above the flat line as well as the Dow. We're going to take a look at strategists predictions for the rest of the year. That's right. After the break. >> Markets hovering just above the flat line. After record highs this week. To discuss strategists outlook on the rest of the year. Yahoo Finance's very own Myles Udland is here. You've been tracking the strategist stakes pretty much across the board here. Who is filling in for Josh Schaeffer who is doing his job for the day. >> Who has the most resounding perspective right now on what could prevail in the second half? Well, I think if you, you know, look at the lay of the land, it obviously has to be the folks with the 6000 price target. But, you know, the most recent move was from Lori Calvasina and her team over at RBC in a note yesterday to clients raising their price target to 5700 from 5300. So we're only 200 points away. All these price targets. And of course, Julian Emanuel at Evercore with that most bullish outlook, all these price targets, which really came higher in the last couple of weeks, seemed, you know, exciting at the time. But now, of course with the S&P it went 5509 yesterday 55. And some change this morning. We're basically right back at these levels. And I think, you know Lori's note yesterday captured the sentiment from a lot of folks. You ask who's the most resounding. There's a sense of resignation. And maybe that's too negative. But there's like this look we were bullish. A lot of wall Street analysts say look we were bullish. We thought stocks would be higher. Then stocks went even higher than that. And so now we sort of have to, you know, accede to the fact that maybe the market is even more enthusiastic than we imagined. And it's, you know, the Wall Street analysts job is to basically say, you know, is this going to get better or worse? Right now, the agreement is slightly better, but I don't think there are too many folks who are really pounding the table looking for another 15% rally in the next 12 months, because it'd be hard to do that after each of the last three rolling 12 month periods. Or, you know, looking at returns roughly in that range. >> Yeah, it was interesting in Calvasina note where just the wording was so interesting to me about like, we're okay ish. We kind of anxious about this bull rally. It was not an excited rah rah. We're getting to record highs feeling. I'm curious, what does that tell you about the conviction under this rally and the degree to which maybe the folks whose notes we all soak up every day are maybe thinking, I don't love that this is all driven by one stock. >> Well, yeah, one stock, one theme. And I think everyone has a similar outlook where earnings this year are going to be up a little bit. You know, not a huge move in earnings in 2024. The consensus view is about 10. Another 10% increase ish. You know give or take a couple of percentage points in earnings next year. And so I think some of that ambivalence, if we want to call it that is our you know, we're basically seeing stocks move higher on expected earnings growth. But it's happening now. So kind of the idea maybe is the best we can do next year is meet that you know call it I think you know Laurie's looking for 268 in earnings from the S&P in 2025. Consensus is right in that ballpark. So unless you see 15% earnings growth next year and we know that most of the earnings growth has been from Nvidia meta, you know, Microsoft to an extent are the main drivers there of year over year earnings growth. So if we're already seeing that pulled forward into this year, the balance of the S&P is kind of flat. How excited are you going to be on a market that's gone up 30 some odd percent over 18 months looking for 10% earnings growth next year? And you've kind of realized those gains now. It's not exactly the way that markets work. But I think that logic loop is essentially what you're going to be walking clients through as as you talk through this process, I want to get your take on another note from earlier this week, Mike Wilson talking about the risks to inflationary pressures. >> If Trump were to enter office again come November, talking about inflation from tariffs and potential immigration policies. This brought me to a question that I came up with during your reading, your morning brief about whether I or politics would drive markets more in the second half of the year. Yeah. What's your take on that? >> Well, you know, when you asked me, I said politics. But then as we talked through it, I think the answer has to be I probably for all the things I just said. Right. Like the markets rally this year, if we are to accept it's driven by earnings growth and almost all the earnings growth is driven by the I theme. Then while it is going to be a, you know, a more interesting conversation around what would any presidential elect's policies mean for, you know, X right. For tariffs, inflation I think tax policy I mean, look at what happened in 17. I think tax policy is the most important part of this, whether it is a Trump or Biden win in November. But ultimately, if the market has very clearly declared itself I mean, I kind of started the piece with this, right? The market's declared itself as an I market. There's really nothing else to talk about when it comes to, quote unquote, the market, because that is where a bunch of the action is coming from. We look at the index every day. Then it follows that it has to be that over the second half of this year, and maybe that gets us all the way back to the ambivalence that a lot of strategists have around the outlook. People do think profit margins are going to be higher. People are fairly constructive on the economic growth path. You know, in GDP, of course feeds into profits. But these are Wall Street strategists, not necessarily AI evangelists. And it becomes a very precarious position to be in. When you're a strategist who thinks the market's going to go higher. But it all kind of depends on, you know, what 2027 orders for Nvidia's next chip are like that's a that's a scary spot to be if you think S&P 6500. But it just matters what Nvidia says on its call. >> Yeah absolutely Myles thanks for taking some time. Joining us Myles of Newsroom fame Myles Udland appreciate it. Coming up everyone a check up on gas prices. Where they're heading this 4th of July weekend. And what it means for your travel plans wherever you're headed. That's next. Auto sales. Giving big EV energy. Ford is the latest to report its second quarter results. Seeing a 1% year over year rise in total sales and EV sales, jumping 61. This of course, follows solid reports from Tesla and GM earlier in the week. Tesla taking higher today after friend of the show, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, raised his price target on the stock to $300 a share. They're seeing shares of Tesla move higher by about 3.4% here in the early innings of today's activity here, but we should also note that it really comes in a period where there was so much concern coming into these prints that it was almost just this massive wait and perhaps pushing down some expectations, limiting expectations and companies essentially coming out and saying, no, there's still a fair bit of fodder out there in terms of the consumers that are willing to get into the EV landscape for Tesla's sake. And then for Ford, this is a big deal, especially as they've kind of moderated their own plans within their own EV development. Thinking about the Ford Blue business versus the Ford Ice business as well, historically. >> Yeah, it's interesting too, given what we've seen from some of the other analysts ahead of the deliveries numbers that we got out of Tesla, in particular, this note stood out to me from Citi saying they recommended buying Tesla. August 24th, $195 calls ahead of three upcoming catalysts. They list, of course, the vehicle deliveries that we just got quarterly earnings for Tesla expected coming up on July 19th. We've got the upcoming robotaxi day on August 8th. That's obviously going to be closely watched. Event for investors. And then in general, that could all lead to some catalysts for this stock. While we await robotaxi news from the company. And of course, as we get some more information from them in the upcoming earnings print, but also to your point, Brad, and taking a look here at what we saw, not just from Wedbush, but also from Bank of America, John Murphy, saying that deliveries were better than consensus expectations and notably better than investors had expected. So also seeing just some additional positive sentiment over the idea that those deliveries did come in better than expected. Interesting to me, though, given that we still saw those headwinds, particularly coming out of China and the degree to which EV makers on Chinese soil are still having the majority of market share in Beijing. But still, that didn't impact that headline number. And I guess that's what the street is focused on. >> Yeah, BYD particularly to put a name on it. They absolutely are continuing to not just take market share, but potentially be a market share leader for an extended period of time, too. That's compared to what Tesla and the inroads that they've tried to develop within that region. Bringing Gigafactory to that region in Shanghai, and then also ensuring that they could try and put even more of that mass market model. Three in the region as well. Now, Ford has also been trying to do the same with, of course, making sure that they've got a lightning that is available essentially internationally and specific models region by region. Here it was interesting to see within this filing that the vans actually lead in Q2. However hybrids grew 56, EVs were up 61% for Ford. Absolutely >> Well, we're going to continue to talk about cars as drivers are hitting the road this 4th of July weekend. And they might find reason to celebrate at the pump. The National average price of gasoline on July 4th is expected to reach $3.49 a gallon. That is the lowest holiday price since 2021, according to GasBuddy. For more on prices, we are joined by Patrick DeHaan. He's head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. Thank you so much for being here with us, Patrick. So I'm one of those drivers hitting the road over the next couple of days here. Who do I need to thank for these gas prices? What is driving this news? >> A lot of this is simply a normalization of the economy. >> Still, post Covid, Russia's war in Ukraine. But all in all, US oil production remains at record levels. 13.2 million barrels a day. Gasoline demand has been somewhat soft this summer, so you can almost think consumers for that. As we go into July 4th, we're seeing gas prices that are basically on par with what they were last year, at least nationally. But here's the big news ten states where you can find average gas prices $0.25 a gallon or more below last year. If you're on the West Coast, you're a big winner. Washington State seeing prices $0.66 lower this July 4th last year, Oregon, Alaska, Wyoming all seeing prices about $0.35 lower this July 4th last year. So some big savings out there with gas prices basically on par with what we saw last July for, you know, Patrick, we were just taking a look at WTI. >> And Brant, both of them hovering right now mid 80s low to mid 80s level. What is your kind of top end projection for where we could see this move to in the near term. >> Well I think there remains some upward pressure on oil markets. As you mentioned WTI about $83 a barrel. It seems like we may be bouncing off an upper limit, although we could go a little bit higher. There's certainly been a lot more anxiety in the market here over the last couple of weeks. WTI up about $10 a barrel from where we were in early June. It's hard to pinpoint exactly the sentiment shift here, although I think we're in a little bit more bullish sentiment that could be helped by Middle East violence between Israel and Hezbollah, obviously some central banks globally starting to lower interest rates that could boost demand slightly. Also, we're in the midst of now, what's the earliest category five hurricane in the Atlantic that we've ever seen? So it's a stark reminder that as global inventories are starting to decline, we could be on the hook for some additional risk here in the second half of the summer. I think WTI could go a little bit higher here, especially if we do see a major organized storm. I think maybe $90 could be tested briefly before we start to get to those cooler months. I think the coast starts to clear in September and October, and that could usher in a national average that falls below $3 a gallon later this year. >> So talk to us about that hurricane season you mentioned. It's obviously top of mind for investors, but oil markets could be moving not just on weather but also on those geopolitical tensions over the next couple quarters here. Which do you anticipate being the bigger catalyst for oil? >> Well, you know, I think the middle East is certainly worrisome, especially when you talk about Israel and, Hezbollah going at it. And how Iran now has a presidential election. There's a lot to watch geopolitically. But for now, I think kind of the story is still a US consumer. We saw some really bullish travel numbers. But I think it's important to mention that US gasoline demand is still far below record levels this July. For now, the US economy could start to improve, but we're really the trendsetter when it comes to global gasoline consumption. US gasoline demand really struggling this summer to hit 9 million barrels where prior to Covid, it was routine that we'd see demand well over 9 million barrels and potentially even approaching 10 million barrels. So I think that's part of the conversation here is still, a US consumer that may not be hitting the road, but more traveling. You look at TSA passenger screening numbers, they're at record levels. But I think that's still we're in the post-Covid world where consumers may not be road tripping as much this summer, but they may be gravitating towards jumping on a plane, Airlines seeing more capacity and lower airfares than we saw last summer. >> I'll be jumping on my bike, Patrick. Appreciate it. Patrick DeHaan, who is the GasBuddy head of petroleum analysis. Appreciate it. >> Thanks for having me. Thanks. >> We've got all your market action straight ahead. Stay tuned. You're watching Morning Brief. Let's get to our five check today. New York City's congestion problem is leading to a life of luxury for some people. Six hotels in the city are providing free helicopter travel from JFK and Newark. The flights are operated under the Urban Air Mobility company blade, and customers must stay at the hotel for a two night minimum here. Now these are not any cheap hotels on this list, we should note. But of course, this is a premium that perhaps you're willing to pay a little bit for. If you just want to make sure that you can get to your suite, kick off your shoes and, you know, get one of those plush bathrobes. Why not? >> Yeah, we've got a breakdown of these prices here on your screen. So definitely not getting that helicopter ride for free at the Ritz Carlton. The average price for their Liberty Suite that you'd have to stay in to get access to this helicopter transportation is hitting around 3395 bucks for the Saint Regis. That's just above $3,000. And at New York's Edition Hotel, that's going to be around $2,500 for the Flatiron Suite. So really getting a deal there at the addition for only 2500 bucks. I also know that for some of these hotels, there is a catch in terms of the number of nights that you have to stay to have access to this, and we should mention this would be operated by blade Helicopter. This is an urban ai mobility company that did go public a couple of years back. And it's interesting to see that this stock is actually down off of this news. So not seeing some upward movement on the stock off of this potentially because I mean it's interesting to figure out the financials behind this. I would be curious to see how much the, hotels are paying blade for this service. And also how the financing works. If I was someone who was already paying for these suites and the cost of the suite didn't go up, I'd be like, well, then what was I paying for in the first place? Yeah. >> well, I mean, for blade, it's a very expensive business to operate, and a company that originally, I believe had been trying to or at least put together a pitch to go public, had some timing, I think, about 2018 and then eventually went public via Spac. And so that's why perhaps you're seeing it kind of sputter, at least in its life as a publicly traded company right now, just above $3 a share. And most of the SPACs, the kind of earmark figure that you see, many of them going out the door at, is about ten bucks. So at the end of the day here, it's been a tough ride of it, choppy if you will, or turbulent for blade, you know, just the air travel puns. They, they run abound. But you're right, Brad. >> Yeah, they went public in 2019. A little bit of a free money environment. And via a Spac, which we know led to a wide variety of companies going public that maybe wouldn't have in our current interest rate environment. But nonetheless, you and I can look forward to never having access to this type of hotel room. >> I don't know, no, we're not saying never. We are speaking these things as though they were wealth. >> He's going to be fine. He's got it. >> Well, I hope so. >> One day. All right. Well, coming up, we are going to have breaking data on the services sector right at the top of the 10 a.m. hour. Myself and Bradley are going to dive into those numbers at the top of our show catalysts. After the break. It's 10 a.m. here in New York City. I'm Madison Mills, alongside Brad Smith. Thank you for joining me at the top of the hour here, Brad, we're going to dive into the catalysts that are moving markets today. >> That's right. This holiday shortened week has been packed with data from the labor market to manufacturing. And now services PMI crossing. We'll discuss what the latest numbers could mean for the Fed's pathway forward. >> That's right. And the latest sales data from Tesla, GM and Ford showing positive signs for EV demand. We're going to dive into the outlook for the broader industry. >> Plus, President Biden blaming jet lag for his disappointing debate performance as Trump comes out on top in fundraising efforts. We'll dive into the next big catalyst for the general election. >> That's right. But first, we got to break into these June services, PMI data that we've got from ISM coming in at 48.8 versus the 52.7 expected. So coming in below expectations here, I just want to run through some of these numbers because we are actually seeing treasuries surging following these ISM services. Number coming in again lower than anticipated. But running through these numbers we've got factory orders for April actually revised down to 0.4. That's according to the Commerce Department. New orders ex transportation falling 0.7% in May after rising 5/10 of a percent. The prior months. We've also got capital goods Nondefense ex aircraft. New orders for May falling 0.6% after rising in April. So seeing several reversals there in terms of numbers coming in, I do want to run through actually some of these ism services numbers in particular business activity falling to 49.6 versus 61.2 new orders. Also a big drop off there coming in at 47.3 versus 54.1. And then prices paid, also falling to 56.3 versus 58.1. So seeing quite a few of these data points here Bradley falling off in terms of this broader print that we got from June, US ISM services and also may factory goods orders that I was running through there also coming in below expectations. >> Yeah. Just taking a look at the market reaction as of right now we're still to the upside across many of the in fact, all of the major averages here in the US. The Dow holding on to gains by the hair of its chinny chin chin. But just kind of to zero in a little bit more on that June services ISM report that you were running through some of the numbers. So well on some context here, economic activity in the services sector contracted in June. This is the second time in the last three months it's done that says the purchasing and supply executives in this latest report on business and then this to them also indicating sector contraction for the third time in 49 months here. So that potentially something for people to really kind of take away top line from this report, as we're seeing markets remain pretty steady holding on to gains as we mentioned here. But this some critical activity in terms of the contraction, and then just lastly here, the business activity index registering 49.6% in June, 11.6 percentage points lower than the 61.2% recorded in May. The first month of contraction since May 2020. So just wanted to highlight that real quick too. Yeah this is the lowest ISM services print that we've gotten since that that critical time period. >> Really the heart of the Covid 19 pandemic, just a couple of months after it surged here in the U.S. So here to help us with this conversation around the services sector, we've got Paul Gruenwald, S&P Global Ratings Chief Global economist. Paul, thank you for being here. Good morning. So good morning. So the services data coming in and mirroring what we saw in a really tough economic moment for this country. Yeah Does that lead us to any type of concern that's similar to that moment. >> Well you know we've been waiting for some time for the economy to slow down. And the surprises have been on the upside, even on inflation. So now we've got a couple of really soft prints and the focus is going to be on the language coming out of the fed. We've got a late cut, a rate cut coming later this year, but they've been waiting for a series of numbers that show a clear deceleration of the economy. This is part of the story. So one number is not a trend. But if we get a couple of more prints like this, I think the rate cuts are going to come into focus. >> And so and we brought up this question earlier, is it a trend in in the quantity of data points that we see or the quality in perhaps the decline or the contraction that we continue to see? >> Yeah, we're trying to put it all together. Right. They're really looking at financial conditions, which is confidence. It's lending rates, it's spreads, it's asset prices. So the whole thing together, do they have the right policy settings now to guide the economy to 2% inflation and full employment. Or are they going to need easier settings if we get a couple of more prints like this, that's a clear signal that they may start to ease off on rates. >> Well, and you said in your own note here that the main risk on your base case scenario would be a drop off in either services spending or in labor demand at what point, like how many data points would you see that were similar to this that would cause you to say, oh, that's a drop off versus the type of softening that we're looking well, we've been in. >> Right? You're right. We've been in the soft landing camp for a couple of years now. But the, the, the fulcrum of that or the support to that has been services spending in the labor market. So those are the two things we're watching. If we get a string of prints like this that could call into question, but you're right. In the recent report for credit conditions, we did identify that the main economic risk is a crack in this sort of solid labor market. Services demand we've been seeing. And this is not a great print today. We'll have to see if we get a couple of more like this. >> Does this increase the odds of a rate cut coming sooner rather than later, >> yeah. Again, it's one data point. But if we extrapolate from here, I would say yes. We're in the December camp now, but September, December is kind of 5050. If we get a couple more like this, the fed could potentially go earlier. >> I mean, we basically only have a couple more readings to write in order to really get a sense of what the fed may do, even as Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaking in Portugal, saying that they would need to see more in order to potentially put a cut in play here, in September, it seems like that's the highest probability at this juncture. Yeah, market was kind of 5050 last time I looked. >> But after this morning, I suspect it's drifted a bit. But remember we've had kind of false starts before. And again we're going to need some more evidence next move for the fed is down. Question is when it happens. >> Yeah. Well and it's interesting too because he he chair power really did sound like he wanted to cut yesterday right. He said the word progress at least five times from my word count. So >> Well we know the global cutting cycle has started right. We've got the ECB and we had you know Bank of Canada, Bank of England is probably next. But the fed the US economy the US economy has been outperforming inflation pressure has been strong. So we need the economy to slow down. But we need it to moderate not to not to fall off quickly. So this is what do the global elections that we've been tracking thus far and especially in France. >> But also you're thinking about where we're seeing some movement as well politically in the UK even how is that impacting the different rate cutting cycles that we're seeing emerge across the world? Yeah. >> Well, I guess there's two things that kind of go in opposite directions. One is if you've got populists, they like to spend money. So the fiscal juice is going to be more baked into the forecast. And that would tend to pump up activity and inflation. But on the other hand there might be a confidence effect. What's going to happen to trade. What's going to happen to industrial policy? What's going to happen that could shape markets, which would go in the other direction. So we'll see how the elections come out and most importantly, the policy platforms. And when what they're going to get out of those. Right. Are they going to be able to enact some of these things. But you know, there's a scenario there where things slow down quicker and the rate cutting cycle accelerates as well. >> Right. It's this question of politics or policy which is going to. >> Yeah, I mean the geopolitics is up near the top of the list that we, as we showed in our recent report, is not just traditional macro risks. We're looking at. >> Right, right. It's always a new always a new regime. Thank you so much for joining us. My pleasure guys. Appreciate it. That was some great commentary there from Paul Grunwald. He is S&P Global Ratings chief global economist. Thanks so much. We just saw a handful of big tech names leading stocks higher in the first half of this year and into market all time highs at the close on Tuesday. So can we expect the rally to broaden out more from here. Joining me now to discuss we've got Katie Nixon, Northern Trust's chief investment officer. Katie, thanks so much for being here with us. Look, the big question is of course, whether or not we can keep relying on a handful of names to drive this market higher and higher. How does the macro environment play into that question? To what extent does the fed and the macro environment, particularly when we are starting to get into some of this data that's showing softening weigh on a market that is driven by just a handful of names? >> Well, first, I will say that, you know, we are also in the soft landing camp, and that's a really important underpinning for our thesis that the market will broaden out as we get further and further into 2024. And if you think about it there, it's logical that we've had the leadership that we've had. If you look at last year's earnings, without the Mag seven, earnings would have been deeply negative, they were responsible for more than 100% of the earnings growth. And even that pulled forward into the first quarter where those stocks were responsible for more than 100% of the earnings growth. But with a soft landing forecast for the economy, we do see a broadening out of fundamental strength beyond those Mag seven stocks. So it really comes down to the earnings growth converging as we get closer to the fourth quarter, where both the Mag seven as well as the other 493 are really forecast to be kind of right on top of each other in terms of contribution of earnings to the overall market, where is the next sector, where that natural broadening out might take place, or be evident? Well, you know, it's pretty broad actually what we see in 2024 is nine of 11 sectors in the market are expected to, to grow, to grow earnings. And 4 or 5 of them are expected to grow double digits. So I think it's a it's a real broadening out. And that's really healthy because we don't want to have the market. So dependent on just a small handful of stocks in a very small handful of sectors that tend to be very highly correlated. >> I also want to talk about the earnings broadening that you guys are mentioning here, because we are starting to see some signs of coolness. Obviously, this services ISM data coming in at the lowest level since the heart of the pandemic in May of 2020. How does the softening of inflation impact the ability of companies to have pricing power, and therefore their earnings, and is that a story that has yet to play out and could be a potential headwind on earnings in the next couple of years, even? >> Well, you raise a really good point. And I do think pricing power has propelled, a lot of revenue growth, certainly for many companies in the S&P 500. And we do see we actually see margins remaining pretty stable at around 12, even after sort of this pricing power has waned a bit. So margins are expected to be strong. And it's interesting because if you think about the first quarter earnings releases, what we heard from many companies was efficiency operational efficiency. So we know that companies are being very, very careful about how they spend their money in order to really preserve margins. In the absence of that, really broad based pricing power. But I will say, as inflation comes down, that will allow the fed to start easing policy. And I think that would be a nice tailwind for, again, the other 493 and the S&P 500. >> What do you think of the theme of this earnings season might be that prevails. >> I think it's going to be operational efficiency. I think companies have been ahead of the curve here, in in thinking about the contours of the economy, I think companies are seeing gradually a weakening in top line growth, whether it's real or nominal, you know, consumers are consuming less and they're willing to they're not as willing to pay higher prices. So that's really going to pressure top line. So I think the theme is going to be operational efficiency and operational resiliency. >> Katie, thank you so much for joining us. We really appreciate it. That was Katie Nixon, Northern Trust's chief investment officer. Returning now to one of the biggest stories of the week, perhaps the year, the all the fallout of President Biden's debate performance, the president now blaming jet lag at a donor event last night for that performance. So joining me now to discuss we've got Yahoo Finance's senior columnist Rick Newman Rick thanks so much for being here. Talk to me about the latest commentary from President Biden on what he is blaming his debate performance on and how that's landing with folks. >> So he said this at a private gathering with donors. But I'm sure the Biden campaign meant for it to get out into the news, and he said, well, you know, I took two trips around the world right before the debate, and I it left me so tired that I almost fell asleep on the debate stage. So, you know, I guess everybody can who's traveled overseas can identify with jet lag, and if you combine that with the arduous schedule of a president and so forth. Yes maybe that contributed to Biden's terrible performance. But on the other hand, Biden returned from his last overseas trip on June 17th, and the debate was on June 27th. So, let's see, 12 days to recover from jet lag. Is that really the problem here, I think that a lot of people will remain skeptical. And here's another problem for Biden. 40 million plus people saw his terrible performance on June 27th at the debate during prime time and nobody saw any televised explanation from Biden about why he did so bad. So what Biden keeps doing is he he bombed in front of a major national audience, and he wanted that audience. He asked for that debate to be to happen early, and he got that. So he bombed there. And then he recovered the next day at a campaign event that almost nobody saw. He was he was energetic and vigorous at that event, but nobody saw it. So, you know, the people who say, well, in private, he seems alert and so forth, this doesn't really matter anymore. How Biden seems in private. It matters how he seems in public and in public. He looks terrible. Now, I'll just add one other thing here. He's going to be making some, public appearances in the coming days. He's doing an interview with ABC News on Friday. So the Biden campaign gets the idea that he needs to start showing up in public and proving that he is as capable as he says he is, but that could go south for him, just as the debate did. He could end up bombing in those things, too. So important things are going to happen during the next few days. >> Well, Rick, another thing that's really important here, of course, is fundraising, because Trump's campaign did outraise Biden's in the second quarter here. What can you tell us about how donors have been responding to the debate performance from Biden and how that could impact his campaign? >> Well, Biden did take in a lot of money after the debate. You know, we don't we don't always know in the days after one of these events where there's a lot of fundraising, it's usually what the campaign tells you because they haven't yet fired, filed their official records. So we kind of kind of have to take their word for it. And we don't know exactly where all that money is coming from, that a lot of that could be small donors, go into the campaign. But the big money that goes to the PACs and the super PACs, you know, there's some a fair amount of reporting from among those people that know nobody really wants to come out, none of Joe Biden's, rich backers want to come out, come right out and say he needs to withdraw. But they clearly are having they're very concerned behind the scenes. And I think in coming days, we're going to find that there are a lot of uncomfortable discussions happening, perhaps with some of these rich donors telling Biden it is time for him to pass the mantle to somebody else. >> Lastly, Rick, I want to talk to you about an Ipsos poll that recently came out with voters, asked about hypothetical Democratic candidates. When asked about the potential for Michelle Obama to run against Trump, 50% of voters said they would vote for Michelle Obama. Rick, what does that tell us? Is this any is there any chance of that becoming a reality for those voters that that question shouldn't even be in the poll, >> because this is an urban myth that Michelle Obama, Barack Obama's wife, would ever want to run for president. This is wishful thinking. There are. She has never run for political office. She has never indicated that she wants to run for political office. And why in the world would she? I mean, look at the great life the Obamas have. They go around, they they hang out on Martha's Vineyard with the most fabulous people in the world. They they make movies. They're rich as can be. They don't have to worry about anything, and they don't have to answer to anybody. Why would Michelle Obama want to give that all up? She doesn't. And everybody should stop thinking that there's any chance at all that Michelle Obama will ever run for president. She won't. >> All right. Rick, well, you really put the final nail in that coffin for those voters. So thank you so much, as always. Thank you for joining us and for the great insights. Rick Always appreciate speaking with you. Have a great fourth. We're going to have all of your markets action ahead right here on Yahoo Finance. You're looking at broader gains actually across the major indices. The S&P up over about a 10th of a percent. And same with the Nasdaq. We're going to keep covering all this and more on catalysts. For We are keeping a close eye on Amazon shares fairly muted this morning. Down about 1% after hitting its highest point ever. The stock closing at $200 on Tuesday's close. This is a good sign for the CEO who's going to have. He will have been in the job for three years as of Friday, Yahoo Finance tech editor Dan Howley is here to weigh in. Dan, thanks so much for being here. Look, obviously it's been a record breaking year for Amazon hitting that record breaking market cap. What could potentially drive this stock to even further highs and how much more pressure is on the name given this record? >> Yeah, I think a lot of this has to do with Andy Jassy and his kind of, cost, controls that he put into place. Obviously, there are a lot of layoffs, part of the reason why they had that pullback, last year, was because in the year before, it was because of the overexpansion that they did during Covid. So they basically figured, look, everybody who's inside now because of this pandemic, everyone's going to stay inside forever. It turns out that that is not true. People like going out and shopping and doing other things, and so they needed to pull back, they've since done that. They've also seen, more growth in AWS, something that, Wall Street was nervous, had kind of hit its peak and was now just going to kind of slowly grow over time. But AI has helped to drive new expansion there. And the investments that they're making in AI is helping with that as well. So that's really, I think, where a lot of people are going to be looking for Amazon to kind of drive its next level of growth, that kind of ability for them to tap into their AI capabilities, they do have tough competition. Microsoft obviously is basically, you know, best friends with OpenAI, and Google has its own AI capabilities that it's pushing in their cloud services as well. So, you know, it's not as though this is going to be easy for them, you know, when you think about AI right now, frankly, a lot of it is you know, Microsoft and Google, Amazon, however, is there and they are pushing it, and so that's something that could be really, their next growth driver on the, the, the store front, the, the retail side of things they're trying to take on, to go along with the, you know, low cost direct shipping kind of goods that could help them on the retail side of things. And then they have, Prime Day coming up, I believe it's on the 16th and 17th, and so that should give an indicator of how much people are actually shopping on the retail side. But really, I think it's all going to be about as everything in tech is right now, I. >> All right, Dan, thanks so much as always for joining us on all things tech. And of course the AI impact in the room. Appreciate it. Now coming up, the latest auto sales reports from Tesla and General Motors showing the demand for electric vehicles might be back on the rise. Tesla's deliveries came in better than Wall Street anticipated. General Motors also seen its EV deliveries increase by 40% compared to a year earlier. So let's discuss it with Stephanie Valdez. She's the director of industry insights at Cox Automotive. Stephanie, thanks so much for being here. I want to start on Tesla because there's been this question, as you know, for many years, about whether or not this is a stock that is going to move off of a story that the CEO tells or the business fundamentals. We're seeing it move off of these fundamentals. Is that indicative of a new era for Tesla? >> Yeah, I think Tesla is navigating the waves right there between these growth waves. And I think in terms of for automotive sales right. They haven't had any new products except for the Cybertruck, which is pretty low volume. And if we're looking at this Q2 as you reported globally in the US, we're probably anticipating a 15% decline in sales. There's still a dominant player. And as you know, they're really positioning on AI robotics. They're going to have their unveiling of the robotic robotaxi in August. So it will be interesting to see how wall Street reacts to that. >> And I'm interested too, in the fact that you even bring up the AI and robotics piece for a name like Tesla. >> There have been some folks who've come on our show and said they want Tesla to really just dive deeper into owning that they are a car company, and others saying no, they need to hold on to the AI of it all. Which do you think is a more successful route for the company? >> Well, I think right now they need to focus on both, right? Because the AI robotics, it's there's a lot of challenges with it, whether it's, you know, like safety concerns, regulations and there's still a dominant player in the EV marketplace. They just need to have some more product. Right. And they talked about having an affordable EV rollout, I think next year. But I'm not sure the timeline on that. And that's going to be key for them to keep focusing on their product. But I think they're definitely prioritizing AI and robotics as well. >> Yeah. >> You mentioned some more affordable EVs to come down the road. What do you think that could do for the consumer uptake and adoption of EVs? >> Yeah, I think that's huge. You know, we've been doing an EV path to adoption study for many years. And as you can imagine, affordability is always the top barrier. And so I think if you think about more options for consumers, if we can have more affordable EVs, that's going to be a game changer, right now, the average transaction price for an EV is close to 50,000 54,000. And so that's still, you know, that price premium over an internal combustion engine. And so I think if we can start to get more of these affordable EVs, that's really going to help, one of the things I wanted to mention for, you know, providing more affordable is used EVs as we start to see more of those enter the marketplace, I think that's going to give consumers some more options at different price points. >> And that brings up the point about competition. >> I'm curious in ten years, do you think that the EV space is going to be crowded to a degree, that Tesla just feels like maybe a drop in the bucket compared to sort of the market leader in the space? >> Yeah, I think that's the challenge with Tesla, right? They've been the dominant player. They still have the market share. Right. Potentially could go below 50% this quarter. But you have all the traditional automakers having a lot of product in the pipeline. And so I think there's a lot of competition. And it's all about what consumers like. They like something new, right? Something that's new, fun, affordable. And so unless Tesla can start to get more product, they're going to start to have other automakers eat into that market share. >> Yeah. And you know, in your notes that you sent over to us that consumer uncertainty about the economy and the election could potentially be a headwind. >> And I was so fascinated by that. Explain to me how the upcoming election could impact EV sales. >> I think one of the things that consumers are thinking about, you know, right now, we have the Inflation Reduction Act, right? There's incentives for consumers. The 7500, not all vehicles are eligible, but consumers can get that if they lease a vehicle. So I think there's some uncertainty about should I buy what if, you know, there's a you know, something with the IRA gets eliminated. There's not the incentive anymore. So I think consumers are a little bit we kind of like waiting it out to see what I should do. Depending on the outcome of the election. So I think that's one of it as well. >> All right. Well thank you so much for joining us. We really appreciate it Stephanie. That was Stephanie Valdez. She's the director of industry insights at Cox Automotive. >> Thanks so much. Have a good day. >> You too. >> Now coming up after the Supreme Court overturned the Chevron deference precedent last week, we're going to talk about the implications for the financial world moving forward. That's next here on catalyst. >> It's a jam packed hour focusing on the biggest movers and shakers on Wall Street. >> This is market domination. And here every day is game day. >> We have one hour left until the market closes. >> It's game time for investors to make their final plays. >> The clock is ticking and we've got you covered with our quarter by quarter playbook. >> We're bringing you in on all the market action with step by step analysis of our biggest trending tickers and expert insight into the day's biggest headlines. >> We'll bring you the closing bell and get you to the finish line. >> This is a market domination. >> Tune in daily from 3 to 4 p.m. eastern. >> The Supreme Court overturned a 40 year old precedent known as the Chevron deference, which ruled that courts should defer to a government agency's reading of any ambiguous laws or statutes, rather than interpreting it for themselves. So here to explain the potential ramifications of this ruling, particularly on the financial world, we're going to welcome in Leah Dempsey. She's Brownsteins shareholder and co-chair of Financial Services Practices Group. Thank you so much for being here with us, Leah, I want to start just on the kind of interpretation of this news. So as a reminder to folks, this is the idea that, you know, there were limitations within the degree to which lawmakers and political appointees could interpret certain laws. They would defer to experts on each individual, type of doctrine and decision. This used to be a bipartisan issue. What changed? Leah. >> Yes. Well, so interestingly, this came out under Justice Scalia during the Reagan administration in the 80s. It was an interpretation of the Clean Air Act. But over time, I think the conservative wing of the court thought that it became a separation of powers issue where, you know, Congress wasn't necessarily delegating certain authorities to the agencies, but the agencies were seeing a silent or ambiguous statute as the opportunity to promulgate rules that, you know, may align with a certain political party. And there has been a lot of litigation on this issue. I think over 1800 cases have 18,000 cases have cited, the Chevron deference. And over tim, different courts have have looked at this differently, really. The Supreme Court in recent years has not necessarily relied on Chevron as much. They've relied on a new case. The West Virginia versus EPA, which introduces a whole nother, issue called the Major Questions Doctrine, but, you know, this ruling is significant and will, have a number of ramifications for the financial services industry. >> Okay. >> So talk to me about those ramifications. Leah, thank you so much for that great explanation. They're just giving us the context on how this has really changed politically over time. But what is the most important thing that investors need to know about how this could impact financial regulations moving forward? >> Yes. Well, and so especially in the last year or two, there have been an onslaught of both financial services and housing regulations. Dozens and dozens of new regulations have been coming out of the Biden administration. Many have already been challenged in court and are in the process of litigation. But this certainly will give ammo to others that are looking to challenge new regulations, particularly in an area where an agency may have gone beyond its statutory authority. So I think, you know, that's one area to look at, an increase in litigation, which will probably elongate the rulemaking process and create a bit of uncertainty in terms of whether rules are going to go into effect or not. There's also the, the process of seeking clarity through regulators, which will change, you know, for instance, something like I there is not a law on the federal books that tells people exactly how to operate in that area yet. And the agencies in many instances have stepped in, here now, it's now questionable how far the agencies may be able to go if Congress doesn't first tell them what to do on those issues. >> You bring up a great point, though, in terms of AI, which we constantly talk about as the main driver of this market rally, given the impact of Supreme Court overturning Chevron here, does that mean that government officials are going to be able to decide what AI regulation looks like moving forward without needing to consult with AI experts themselves? >> Well, you know, Congress has a number of pieces of legislation that they're considering in this area, the regulators have also put out several pieces of guidance. This the CFPB, HUD, others have put out guidance on this issue. But going forward, depending on what that guidance says from agencies, it could be subject to a challenge. Now that Chevron is struck down, I want to zoom a decade ahead with Yulia. >> If we can kind of read the tea leaves here, because I remember in high school, like the key sticking point in my US history class and economics classes were, we talked constantly about Citizens United and the impact that that was going to have on our country moving forward. This feels like the case that the next generation of history students are going to have that exact same commentary on. If you were teaching that history class, what would you tell those students about how this would impact them just in terms of their daily lives and what this country would look like for them? >> Well, I certainly think it's going to change the way Congress has been operating over the past few decades. In recent years, they've been leaving a lot of the details to the agencies in many instances, you know, doing that on purpose because they don't want to take a tough vote or get involved in an issue that may not look great in their next election. Now they're they're going to have to step in and fill in with those details. So the way that Congress operates and, you know, hopefully comes together in a more bipartisan fashion, will will hopefully change going forward, because if things continue as they have this Congress, this Congress, I believe it's one of the lowest number of pieces of legislation ever passed in history because of the divide, because of the fact that the speaker of the House was asked to step down at one point, if things continue that way and, you know, in Congress doesn't legislate on these issues and, and agencies have a more limited authority to step in. Things will get complicated. So I think there's going to have to be a shift in how things are done going forward. And, you know, agencies as well are going to have to have a mentality shift in the way that they promulgate rules. >> Yeah. And you make the point as well in your notes over to us that typically, Congress would try and push through some legislation heading into an election cycle. So this could complicate that moving forward here as well. Leah, thank you so much for joining us. We appreciate it. That was Leah Dempsey. She's Brownstein shareholder and co-chair of financial Services Practices Group. >> Thanks so much for having me. >> We are going to have all of your markets action ahead right here on catalyst. You're looking at a mixed board here, seeing some pressure on the Dow. The S&P and the Nasdaq holding on to gains but paring the upside movement that we saw a little bit earlier in the session. Stay tuned for more. You're watching catalysts. >> And Marina. Traffic. Experimental 542. Bravo. So we're at the downtown Manhattan Heliport. >> And what we're going to do is we're going to take off. All I want you to do is pull back with your right hand. That will make you go up. Just pull back hard. Yep. And there you go. Now you're flying. >> I'm flying. We're not actually flying above the Statue of Liberty. >> That's a simulator from Joby Aviation, which is used to train traditional pilots on how to fly this battery powered aircraft. With the backing of Toyota and Delta, it's one of the largest companies looking to bring battery powered air taxis to market. These aircraft are called Evtols, which stands for Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing. At first glance, it may look like a helicopter with extra propellers on top, but unlike choppers, Evtols run off electricity rather than fuel. >> This is for charging. >> It took us about six minutes to get from JFK to downtown Manhattan. >> Over $22 billion in investments over the last 20 years, from names like Uber, Stellantis and Honeywell have now made this kind of a commute closer than ever thanks to advancements in Evtol technology, high performance propeller blades that are very light. >> In addition to Delta major aerospace names like United and Boeing see the potential and have invested with the hopes of one day adding evtol rides to their list of offerings. Getting in now makes sense. One research firm estimates the air taxi market could be worth more than $65 billion by 2028, while the tech has proven to work, and it could be even closer to commercial launch in Europe. Here in the U.S. regulation, lack of infrastructure and customer affordability could be what keeps these companies from taking off. Yahoo finance went inside Joby's 130,000 square foot assembly facility to learn more about how the company hopes their aircraft and their business strategy will win the air taxi race. This is what's next in the business of electric air taxis. Flying above traffic in a congested city sounds like fiction from The Jetsons, but air taxi companies believe they can make this a reality. >> As soon as 2025. >> This is as close as we've seen. I think, in terms of the technology coming together to make something that you could use on a daily basis to go where you want to go and do the things that you want to do, which is kind of what a car is all about. I think that is something that's gonna be practical and available to people in the pretty near term. >> The Joby aircraft has completed more than a thousand test flights. >> The aircraft can fly five people, including the pilot, up to 150 miles. >> What can you do with the way you design and build an aircraft? If you have a world class electric propulsion system available, which no other aircraft have really been designed around? In some ways, the six motors on the aircraft are powered by four batteries, which were developed by a team of Ex-tesla employees. When that lets you do is fly very, very efficiently, which makes all electric work and makes all electric safer too. >> Redundancy was built into the aircraft. Everything has backups in place. So this is a battery. This is a battery. Does that exist on the other side too. >> So the aircraft has got four batteries. You've got that redundancy. You can afford to I mean we can lose a battery and we still fly perfectly fine electric aircraft faced similar challenges to electric vehicles, which don't have the added hurdle of launching into the sky. >> Among those challenges, battery charging times Joby can go up to 100 miles on a single charge, meaning it could do two trips back and forth to JFK from NYC's downtown heliport before needing a recharge. Joby says almost all of their trips and target markets would allow for recharging. That takes about as long as deboarding and boarding passengers, according to one report, Evtol batteries would ideally charge in under ten minutes, about as fast as Tesla's latest superchargers. Evtol companies hope safety measures will give them a leg up as they try and bite into the 10,000 traditional rotorcraft trips per day happening in the U.S. But first up, getting cleared to fly a representative from the federal Aviation Administration told Yahoo Finance that while Evtols could launch commercially as early as 2025, 2028 could be more realistic, at least for scaled and competitive market. The FAA's innovate 28 initiative outlines requirements for launch that includes hitting certain safety criteria and flying under a variety of conditions. It's the same approach applied to traditional aviation. Still certification is not guaranteed. >> We don't know when certification for FAA will happen for any aircraft. The FAA changed them to special condition aircraft, essentially putting more rigorous certification processes on top of that. So I can imagine that we're going to see an Evtol in the air certified flying around folks in 12 months time. >> Does pre 2030 seem realistic? I do think late in this decade we'll have that until then, Evtols are focusing on countries with looser regulations. Joby plans to launch flights in Dubai by 2025, through a deal that was supposed to be exclusive, though Archer Joby's main competitor, later announced their own plans in the region back in the States, Joby is on track to hit the FAA's proposed timeline for approval. They've just completed stage three of a five stage trial, but with testing comes setbacks. The US national Transportation Safety Board released a report on a Joby crash from February of 2022. I know that there was a test flight that did end in a totaled Joby aircraft. Can you talk to me a little bit about what happened there and how you, as a leader, kind of transitioned the tech moving past that, we were flying pretty high and really fast, >> right at the edge. We were doing it remotely though, so that's actually one of the really interesting early use cases of autonomy that I think is a little underappreciated. We've taken care of it in all of the future designs, but we found it earlier because of the use of that remote piloting and autonomy in a way that I think ultimately is pretty beneficial. >> I think autonomous has its own issues. Right. The fact that people will feel comfortable not only getting in an aircraft that they've never been on before and having it have no pilot seems like the riskiest proposition. >> Still, autonomous flight could boost profits. Pilot salaries aren't public, but the average annual wage for commercial pilots in 2022 was a little over $100,000. That's according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. >> We think that's definitely going to come. We just don't think it's the right way to go to market to start with, because this gets us to market as fast as possible. And then that's something that will make it even better down the road. >> For now, Joby is partnering with companies like Toyota and even Uber, which sold off their own air taxi unit to Joby back in 2019. >> I led the Uber Elevate team, which was Uber's effort to build a flying car in some sense ecosystem of different companies. We actually demoed this with helicopters in New York City in 2019 when we launched. Maybe you remember there was something called Uber Copter. You'll be able to in our app or in the Uber app, essentially choose Joby, a Joby flight, as one of the types of products. But it won't just be a flight alone. It's actually a multi-modal integration. >> That integration will be needed since Joby won't have many locations available for flights at the start. Here's how it would work in one of their first target markets. New York City users would open the Uber app and select the air taxi option. Then a car would come to the customer's door, drive them to the nearest vertiport, which is a converted heliport that can handle the charging and storing of Evtols. From there, users would hop in the Evtol and land at a nearby airport, Joby says. In New York City, the flight would take about seven minutes. Uber isn't the only major company getting in on the actio. Toyota invested nearly $400 million into Joby, and Delta invested 60 million. Archer Joby's biggest competitor, has a $1 billion conditional order from United Airlines and raked in 150 million from Stellantis, as well as some well-known investors, including Cathie Wood, via her Ark Innovation ETF and serial entrepreneur Mark Lowry. Major air taxi firms Joby Archer and Lilium have all had gains on the S&P 500 this year. To see this investment put to work, Yahoo Finance went inside Joby's Assembly facility, which, following the Toyota investment, now runs a lot like a car assembly line. So this overall is our final assembly facility. >> So we are bringing in all sorts of parts, all of the many different parts that go into the aircraft. Many of them get built here. And then we have a process where we put them sequentially in the right order, in some sense onto the aircraft to build out that full aircraft. We are vertically integrated. We build the parts and then we assemble the parts together into structures. And so what we have behind us is one of our structural assemblies for a fuselage, which is the body, the main body of the aircraft. >> That vertical integration is part of what attracted Delta to Joby. >> We spent at least 18 months looking at over 20 different evtol. Startups, really looking at what each one had to offer because of the technological strength that Joby had, the financial strength that they had as a startup. We felt that that made a great match for us to be able to collaborate. >> Let's take a look at how the markets are doing. About 90 minutes into your trading day here, I want to take a look at the broader and major indices, looking at the Nasdaq there it is up about 3/10 of a percent. Let's see if I can get the other markets to pop up here. Because what's interesting to me is that we are seeing the Nasdaq composite up higher than the S&P 500, though this is the highest that I've seen these indices be on the day here. Interesting in comparison to what we are seeing in the Treasury space, seeing treasuries falling off a bit following that ism data coming in at the softest levels in the past four years. That's also why you're seeing a little bit of weakness in the dollar as the market starts to price in a higher chance of the fed cooling off interest rates earlier than anticipated, likely seeing an uptick in the rate hiking rate cutting belief for September there as well. I also want to quickly take a look at oil, because we know that oil moving after EIA did announce a drop in inventories. You can see that impacting the futures here for crude. And Brant and WTI WTI rather as well. Taking a look at your broader market though still seeing some gains in the major indices. We'll see how that shakes up for the rest of your shortened holiday trading day. Coming up here. We've got wealth. It's dedicated to all of your personal finance needs. Our very own Brad Smith is going to have you right here for the next hour, so stay tuned. >> Welcome to wealth, everyone. I'm Brad Smith, and this is Yahoo Finance's guide to building your financial footprint. Our community of experts will give you the resources, tools, tips and tricks that you need to grow your money on today's show. New data shows some weakening in the labor market will help you understand what it means for the economy and how it will affect your job prospects and how to save money. This summer, we dig into the tips and tricks that you need to save a little cash in the summertime, when the weather is right. Plus, getting around without connectivity, our tech reporter is going to give you the skinny on how to manage your life. Should you be without technology? All that much more during today's show? But let's get back to the economic data. This morning. Private employers in the U.S. added fewer jobs than expected. In June, 150,000, according to ADP. That is the third straight month of slowing job creation. Joining me now to break down the data. We've got Nela Richardson, who is the ADP chief economist. Great to see you. And as always, thanks so much for taking some of your time. After this fresh data drops. I want to get your read in on exactly what we're seeing in some of the moderation in key sectors. I remember looking through this report earlier this morning and you essentially said in a nutshell, had it not been for leisure and hospitality, we might have seen a much different report. >> That's correct, Brad, and it's great to be with you. This is the third straight month of job declines. Declines in job gains, I should say. So. We've seen this gradual cool down, all year, but particularly over the last three months, 150,000 jobs is solid, but it's not broad based. It's really coming from a couple of sectors. On the services side and leisure and hospitality. As we noted in the press release, is responsible for the bulk of the gains. It was 42% of the hiring this month. So the question before us is, can the labor market continue with this gradual cooldown when there's just 1 or 2 sectors really driving the gains every month? >> What does that signal to you about wages right now? >> Well, we don't need the signal. We actually have the paychecks. So at ADP back over 10 million workers every month for this report. Anonymized but individual to individual matches. And this is the first time since August of 2021 where job gains for job stairs have broke below 5. That is significant. Yes, it's a significant milestone in our trajectory back to a wage growth that is consistent with 2% inflation, but it's still elevated from from pre-pandemic levels. And the declines in job growth are slowing. So we're not seeing big jumps downward. We're seeing an edging down in a very slow and gradual way with these annual job gains. >> What about for job hoppers on the other side? Those who are looking across some of these listings online and saying, you know what, I think I fit the bill. I fit the prerequisites to be able to throw my hat in the ring. And I'm looking for a little bit of a pay bump to and they'll get it in this market. >> We are still seeing a pretty elevated pace of pay bumps for people who change jobs within the last year about 77.7% annual growth for job changes. But there has been some shifts, notably in that very leisure and hospitality sector. That's driving a lot of the gains this month. We're seeing that you don't get the same pay bump. You did a couple of years ago. In fact, leisure and hospitality is the one sector. When we look at job switchers, we actually lose money from changing jobs. So that is a key difference in terms of how the sector stack up in the month of June. >> Additionally, we got to give people some actionable tips here, say that they are looking for a job right now and trying to make sure that in whatever capacity that they're seeing, hiring or even some pullback in the number of jobs that are open here, where can they make sure that they are kind of deploying their best efforts? Where are some of the hot sectors? >> This is not a hot sector, market. It's a cooling market. So the first thing to note is that it may take a little longer to find that next job than it did. Would have taken a year ago. People are staying in their jobs longer. We saw that in the JOLTS data. The job openings, hiring and quits data that came out from the BLS earlier this week. Quits rates are about the same pace they were before the pandemic. So this is not a place where people are leaving jobs, and there's a lot of job openings that come to fruition. It also means that there are some segments of the economy that are slower than others. So if you look at the goods sector, manufacturing, construction, natural resources, it's slower than services. So if you want to a quick job, I would head to customer facing jobs and healthcare and leisure hospitality. But if you want a high paying job, you might have to wait a little longer for that manufacturing job or that construction job. Perhaps in professional business services. So, patience is the key for the fed. And now patience is the key for people who are looking for a new job. >> All right. Patience in the job search type. Summer Neil Richardson, thanks so much for taking some time here with us today. A lot to really wrap our minds around over the course of this week with some of the employment data readings, such as that from ADP, ADP chief economist Neil Richardson great to see you. >> Thank you. Good to be here. >> Certainly. Turning now to three stories impacting consumers. First up insight into workers pay a big takeaway from the ADP print this morning. Pay increases for American workers. They've continued to decelerate here. The annual wage increases for workers who stayed in their same job. That increased at the slowest rate in nearly three years in June. Here now for job changes, annual wage increases slid for a third straight month. And as we talk about how much people are making, we can also see that they're spending more of their wages on housing here. Housing affordability remains a big pressure point for Americans, according to Adam. A real estate data firm. Major expenses on median priced homes now consume 35% of the average national wage in the second quarter. This is the highest level since 2007, and with housing, eating into more of your budget, you may not be thrilled to learn that inflation is hitting your 4th of July barbecue as well. According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, the average cost for a ten person cookout is $71.22. That's up 5% from last year and up a whopping 30% from five years ago. Meat prices will greatly affect that budget. 2 pounds of ground beef costing an average of $12.77. That's up 11% from last year. All together here, the consumer has been resilient, even if increasingly showing normalization in certain areas. But there are signs of weakening in the labor market, high mortgage rates remaining burdensome and inflation still hitting Americans wallets as of right now, we've got much more coming up on wealth after this short break. One popular measure of volatility for investors has been relatively subdued over the past few months. The Cboe Volatility Index, known as the VIX, is off more than 3% so far. This year, indicating expectations for volatility in the S&P 500 have been somewhat muted this year. Some on Wall Street believes that that's about to change, though, as uncertainty around the Fed's potential rate cuts plus a presidential and general election could see market volatility spike. For more, I'm joined by Anthony Saccaro, who is the Providence Financial and Insurance Services president. Anthony, great to see you and great to have you back on the program. What are the best ways to protect oneself against a potential market downturn? >> Yeah, I think what you really want to do is you really want to focus on the phase of life that you're in and the strategies that you're using for that phase of life. The fact is that if you're heading towards retirement and you have more than ten years away to retire, you should continue doing what you're doing. Dollar cost averaging, have money come out of your paycheck every year. Every every paycheck, every paycheck. Continue driving that average price down. That's what dollar cost averaging does. I wouldn't change anything there. But if you're a little bit older, if you're maybe a decade or so, especially if you're 5 or 10 years or less away from retirement, you probably want to start shifting from the more aggressive investments which have served you well over the last 10 or 12 years, into more conservative, income based investments. And if you're retired, same thing. It starts shifting from a growth first income second mentality to an income first growth second mentality. The closer you get to retirement, I think that's the number one thing you need to do and let the market at record highs. It's not a bad time to start making that shift. >> So what are the three risks in the back half of 2024 that investors should be paying closest attention to? That could insert more volatility into the equation? >> Yeah, well certainly inflation is one of those risks, you know, it has softened. It has started to come down a little bit. It's stalled in the first quarter. Came down a little bit. Right. The PC and CPI numbers were favorable not by a lot. But we'll take it, and that's certainly one risk that the price of things stays high, that makes it more expensive to live, makes it more expensive for credit, makes housing costs more expensive, so that's one risk for sure, a second risk is that we have a recession. We're not out of the woods yet, the labor market is softening. It's not soft enough. The, inflation, as we talked about, is softening. Still not soft enoug. We still have an inverted yield curve. An inverted yield curve indicates and has indicated historically that we have a recession coming. Our yield curve now has been inverted for more than two years. That's not uncommon for an inverted yield curve. To be that inverted that long before a recession happens. Additionally, the expectations index, is under 80. Generally, under 80 has been a good predictor of recession. So we're not out of the woods. A recession is potentially a risk as well, too. And I think geopolitical risks are there as well. The trade tensions with China, the tariffs, the presidential election is going to come into that. And we can't underestimate still the fact that there could be a terrorist event. We've had it happen before. Our government's done a great job of protecting us, but we've got some wars going on and if we had another terrorist event in this country, that could be a risk as well too. So I think those three are the three to really focus on and to do what you can to mitigate at this point. >> Wow. Yeah. That last one wasn't on my bingo card. And I'm hoping it doesn't come true. But of course, exogenous threat that and many investors always have to think about here. You know, as we're thinking about though, the sectors that investors should consider in Q3, which are those that you're leaning into right now. >> Yeah. Brad, the reality is, if we are thinking that there could be a recession and I don't know if it's Q3 or beyond, I don't think Q3, but going forward, you want to prepare for that before the recession comes. And so Q3 would probably be a time to start. Consumer staples is a sector that I think makes sense. It hasn't done well, it hasn't done well recently. This year to date, it's up, I think 7.5% 2023 was not good. But it's a defensive sector. They can pass on the cost of inflation to the consumer. And no matter what you're still going to buy toothpaste. So you know the consumer staples I think is a good sector to focus on. If you think that the recession narrative has potential to play out. Same is true with utilities for a lot of the same reasons. You've got to you're going to continue paying your gas bill. You're going to continue paying your electric bill. So I think that's another they can pass the inflation on to consumers as well, too. I think that's another sector to focus on. And then finally real estate investment trust. This sector has not been good for a couple of years because of high interest rates, because of the high prices in real estate. But if interest rates come down, a lot of experts think that real estate is going to pick up again, going to become more active rents past their inflation onto the lessees, the tenants. So the reality is I think that's a potential got potential to pop. And you're going to get high dividends not only from the REITs, but from the utilities and from the consumer staples as well. So I think these are three sectors that if you're going to buy into the recession narrative and I think is inevitable at some point, these are three sectors, I think, that are probably good, good to focus on Anthony Scavo, Providence Financial and Insurance Services President Anthony, great to see you. >> Thanks so much for taking the time. >> Thank you, Brad, thanks for having me. Certainly >> What we've all seen the headlines. Tech is driving the markets higher this year. The tech sector is up around 20% year to date. Compare that to small caps which are up less than 1. Despite the trend, our next guest thinks now might be the time to get into small caps. To discuss, let's bring in Matt Kaufman, Calamos head of ETFs here. As part of the ETF report brought to you by Invesco QK. Great to see you. Okay So walk us into the thesis here Matt for why we could see perhaps a trend in a new direction. >> Yeah. Good to see you again. This year year to date small cap stocks. They're trailing large cap stocks as that chart showed by the largest amount that we've seen on record since 1998. It's about a 14% dislocation relative to the S&P 500. So you know as you've said we've seen large caps really enjoying a nice run since the down market of 2022. And small caps really didn't participate in that run. We're seeing the Russell 2000, a broad measure of small cap stocks still about 17% off its record high from 2021. And so a lot of this underperformance is really interest rate driven because small caps rely much more heavily on external financing than their larger companies. So, you know, over the past couple of years in that small cap space, we've seen lower earnings, lower margins, the cost of capital has gone up, along with interest rates. Today, we think this is largely priced in. And so if interest rates do begin to fall again, you know, we may see, you know, one cut or so this year, we could see a surge in in small cap prices as a result. So as those falling borrowing costs, occur, that really can become a tailwind for small cap stocks. How detrimental is the timing if we don't see a cut until December versus what's being projected right now, or has the leading probability for that first cut of September? >> What is the kind of net delta, if you will, for performance of small caps over the course of this year? If we did see it delayed? >> Yeah, we think a lot of that underperformance like again is priced in and we're already seeing some of that outperformance occurring. We have a timpany mutual funds small cap mutual fund. That's starting to outperform its competitors and perform well in that small cap space. But you're right. We do see volatility in that small cap space. And so we're encouraging people to look at the small cap area but enter it with a measure of risk management okay. >> So what are some of the top ETFs that you're seeing investors flow into right now with this strategy in mind. >> Yeah there's a couple of products that we're seeing people you know being able to poise for that rally in small caps. On Monday we launched CPR which is a 100% downside protected ETF that gives you exposure to the Russell 2000. And so we launched that on Monday. The cap rate on that product is 11.2, which is the highest cap rate of any capital protected one year product in the market today. So it allows you to participate in potential growth in small caps, but in a way where you don't participate in those downside moves over the next year. So for folks with, you know, one year time horizon or greater moving into a capital protected Russell 2000 product like CPR, I think makes a lot of sense for folks. And then the second product we're seeing, just a do next 10s here is Ckvr-dt. It's a convertible product which is, owns convertible bonds largely issued by small mid cap stocks. And so those are high equity sensitive convertibles. We see a run up potential in that as well Matt great to catch up with you. >> Matt Kaufman who is the Calamos head of ETFs. Appreciate it. Great Certainly coming up, what do you do if you lose internet on your phone for hours or even days at a time? We've got some tips when we return tech supports coming up. Whether you're stranded in the Amazon rainforest with zero bars and a dream. Or you're simply out on the town with a phone you forgot to charge. Like me. Not having access to all of your tech can be incredibly stressfu. But have no fear, because our own Dan Howley is here with some important tips for you on this week's edition of Tech Support. Dan, you were on vacation last week. I hope you had a great time, but you actually had some tech issues yourself. What happened? >> Yeah, I was, away in, Ireland and Scotland, as you can see from this incredible tan, that I have right now. And there was a third party outage, with a provider, that actually provides, roaming services for Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile users outside of the US. And so while I was traveling, internet just went down for us entirely. We couldn't connect to anything when we were out and about. And cities that we really don't know. >> And so what are some of the tips that you have for people who may not have full internet access, whether for traveling or even if you're dealing with an outage, as you did? >> Yeah. I mean, there were there's a few things I think the main is to, find Wi-Fi wherever you can, before we would go out, we would use Wi-Fi to look up where we were going to make reservations to order a cab. When we were out, we would stop at cafes or restaurants, sneak into a bar, and then try to grab the Wi-Fi there and use it to continue on our journey. Wherever we had to go, look up what we needed to, check our Airbnb status things along those lines. It was you know, a little harrowing at times, trying to figure things out, it also was an excuse for me to put my phone down, which I did not do, but my best friend and my wife, managed to do that while we were traveling, but there's a few other things you can do as well. You can download Google Maps for offline use if you're in a city you don't know. That was really helpful, you can also do things like use, Apple's satellite messages or messages over satellite. That's going to be coming in the fall. Right now. They have emergency SOS. So if you are truly stranded somewhere and you have no network connectivity, that's something that you would probably use. It connects you to emergency services. It's not something to be like, oh no, I can't find where the restaurant is that I'm looking for. That could be something that you would use. Apple's upcoming, messages over satellite service would be used for, and we only got about 30s left. >> What about connectivity issues? Whether that's a problem with the network, your phone, or your account? >> Yeah, I spent, probably two hours resetting my phone over and over and over again, that's usually the first thing to do. Start and restart your phone, then if you have other connectivity issues, you can actually reset your network settings, entirely in your phone. That's something that's pretty easy to do. Unfortunately, that didn't work for us because of this larger outage. The second, the last thing that you could do is when you do have Wi-Fi, look up to see if there's any widespread outages for your carrier, or a carrier service. And that's what ended up happening for us. The key thing just find that free Wi-Fi wherever you can. >> There you go Dan Howley Thank you so much. Appreciate those tips. Actionable for anybody out there. That is perhaps low on tech resources. Appreciate it Dan. All right. That's it for wealth everyone I'm Brad Smith. Thank you so much for watching. Stay tuned. Market domination Josh Lipton Seana Smith that's coming up next. >> Hello and welcome to Market Domination. I'm Josh Lipton alongside Seana Smith. Live from our NYC headquarters. >> We are giving you the ultimate investing playbook to help you tune out the noise and make the right moves for your money. Just about 90 minutes to go until the market close. Let's get you up to speed on what we're seeing play out in today's market action. We are looking at the Dow under a bit of pressure off just about 2/10 of a percent. But let's turn our attention to what we are seeing in terms of those record setting highs. The S&P on track for another record close. If these gains hold for the next 90 minutes, you're looking at the S&P pushing further above the 5500 level. And when you take a look at the Nasdaq Composite closed above 18,000 for the first time yesterday, we're now looking at another gain of nearly a half of a percent there. Flipping it over to the bond market here. A bit of a different story really, than what we've seen play out over the last couple of trading days. You're looking at the ten year yield dropping by about nine basis points, pushing or pulling further back from that 4 or 5 level that had been pushing up against not too long ago. Now, the reason behind why we are seeing these moves play out in the markets today is on the heels of some of that econ data that we've gone out over the last couple of hours of reading on ADP print, and also when it comes to jobless claims, both pointing to a labor market that is slowing down just a bit. And then we also got the services PMI also showing some weakness. There So that's adding really I guess giving the market some confidence that maybe the next move is going to be or will be a cut, but maybe that cut is going to come sooner rather than later. When you take a look at the sector action here today, you've got technology, utilities, materials. They're among the outperformers. On the flip side, you've got consumer staples and tech and healthcare. They're under a bit of pressure, but again, a bit of a mixed picture when you take a look at the sector action. But the xlk leading the way today and you can see that reflected in the outperformance of the Nasdaq there. >> Josh Seana thank you. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq aiming for another record close as investors are digesting a fresh batch of economic data. Plus comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. And a wait of course the latest federal Reserve minutes. Joining us now is Zach Hill Horizon Investments head of portfolio strategy. Zach it is good to see you. So you know Seana. Seana was hinting there. You know we saw some they had some weaker than expected economic activity. And data Zach this morning labor market U.S. services activity. What did you make of that data Zach what do you think Jay Powell makes of it. >> Yeah. Josh well thanks for having me. And happy early 4th of July. So we definitely got a little bit of a weak data print today especially that ISM services number. Came in fairly light. Although you know, just looking at the last few, releases of that number, they have been quite volatile. You know, it surprised to the upside really considerably last month. And so, you know this downside surprise I think we need to take in a broader context there. You know really for us I think we're looking to Friday's jobs report, you know, continued strength in the labor market is really key to our view that, you know, the consumer is in better shape than a lot of people think. And we think that's that's good for risk appetite, especially when as we as we heard from Chair Powell yesterday, you know, he wants to cut rates and he's just waiting for the, for the right data to do so. And so he nodded to progress on the inflation front. And so if we continue to see that, you know, throughout the summer, we do expect to see the fed, you know, lowering rates marginally sometime in the back half of the year. >> Zach, do you expect the disinflation trend to stay intact? >> You know, I think we're going to be bumpy, you know, it's I think it's just it's we don't understand as much about inflation as as I think, you know, we did we thought we did in the 20 tens period, but broadly speaking, if I look at like the bigger trend, yeah, I mean, we're not going to go back to what we saw in 2022 or early 2023. I mean, whether we settle out at 2.0 or 2 point 3 or 2.4, you know, that's, in our view, really rounding errors in the bigger, broader picture. You know, we do think that inflation is largely under control. And at the same time, the economy is showing that it's more resilient to higher interest rates. And so, you know, while the fed is going to cut and the fed is going to cut at some point soon, you know, in a bigger in the grand scheme of things, it's not as really as big of a deal as we would have thought in this last cycle, just because, you know, the economy is just it's just running hotter than it has really since the global financial crisis. >> And Zach, you know earnings season coming up pretty quick here. What do you expect. You know the market Zach I mean we're we're going to be running into this earnings season running pretty hot here. >> Yeah I mean this earnings season is an important one. You know especially given how narrow the performance of the S&P 500 has been. You know, really over the last month month and a half, so a couple of things that we'r, we're really paying attention to, you know, one, we're going to get top line good earnings growth about 9% year over year on a consensus basis. And so broadly speaking that's healthy for the overall market. It should be healthy too for not just the top of the market but but the rest of the market. I think what we're really going to be looking, you know, into really, really closely is two things. One is margins, with inflation clearly slowing down on a trend basis, companies that can maintain their margins and pricing power are going to be rewarded by the market and companies that can't, we'll see, you know, underperformance. And so that's one thing that we're going to be focusing on. And the other thing that we're going to be focusing on is just continued enthusiasm around the AI theme. You know, we have a handful of stocks at the top of the index that have been driving us for quite some time, and they are quite expensive, you know, looked at on, on many, kind of measures across time. And so for us it's, it's important for, for the top of the market and the AI related names to continue that beat and raise phenomenon that we have seen, you know, really over the last 5 or 6 quarters. And so those are the two things that we're going to be looking for as earnings season starts next Friday. >> Zach, what about a broadening though of participation. Are you expecting a greater balance when it comes to earnings growth beyond those tech names. >> Yeah I mean this is the you know the other thing I think that investors are going to be grappling with throughout this year is that, the growth advantage at the top of the market has enjoyed on the average stock in the S&P 500 is set to narrow throughout this year. And some of that's just, you know, base effects. And some of that is the fact that, you know, we were in a slowdown in kind of the manufacturing part of the economy, which is the you know, broader, more average S&P 500 is more geared towards that, as opposed to the tech names at the top of the index. And so, you know that that growth spread is going to be contracting throughout the year. And so how investors handle that is something that we're going to be watching, quite aggressively. But but broadening out for broadening out sake, we've never really subscribed to that thesis. I mean, you need to have the macro environment and the fundamental environment aligned to have a kind of a broadening out price action. And so, you know, as we sit here today, we don't think that's going to happen, but that's certainly something that we'll be updatin, you know, over the coming weeks. >> All right. Zach Hill of Horizon Investments, thanks so much for hopping on with us today. >> Thank you. Well, we are just getting started here on market domination. Coming up, Wedbush's Dan Ives saying that Elon Musk has his mojo back as Tesla shares are once again riding higher. Today we're going to speak to the analyst about his latest price target hike on the other side and wage growth nears a three year low in June. >> We'll get economists reaction and take a look at what that means for an already slowing labor market ahead. Stick around. More market domination still to come. >> The street is getting more bullish on Tesla. On the back of its better than expected second quarter delivery numbers. Wedbush is one of the firms raising its price target on Tesla. Now saying the stock could rally to 300 bucks a share. Joining us now we want to bring in Dan Ives. He's Wedbush managing director and senior equity analyst. So Dan, you're very bullish on Tesla, saying now that the worst is behind it. What gives you the confidence? >> I think is the comeback kid. >> I mean, this is all now starting to play out for Musk and Tesla. Clearly Look it's been a tough 6 to 9 months. 2QI think is the turning point, not just from a delivery perspective, but now going into historic robotaxi day and autonomous. I believe the AI story alone is worth $1 trillion, potentially, of Tesla and Dan robotaxi. >> It's great. It's great to see you. It's Josh, I get the excitement there Dan but that is a you know, that's a long term play, right? It would be a while before you would expect to see any kind of, you know, meaningful financial contribution from that. Right >> Yeah. Look, Josh, I think in the next 18 to 24 months, we'll have some form of supervised robotaxi in certain cities, in my opinion, I think given where China is going on FSD autonomous, I think the technology is getting closer and closer to something that when you look at the longer term Tesla story, I've never viewed it as an auto company. Disruptive tech, despite some of the issues they've been through from a demand perspective. But take a step back. You're going to have six, seven, 8 million cars on the road, Teslas that are now going to have that autonomous FSD. And I think it's very important to understand forest for the trees. This is essentially an AI robotics disruptive play. But yet the bears in their hibernation caves will continue to say it's a car company. >> Well Dan, one of the big issues though for Tesla over the last several quarters has been the cars and demand and what they need to do in order to spur that demand, I guess has that part of the equation, has that part of the story changed at all, or are we starting to see or do you think we're going to see a real pickup in EV demand? And what's driving that? >> Yeah, I think the price cuts, 98% of that is in the rearview mirror. So I think we've started to turn the corner there from a price cost perspective. Demand stabilized China headwind. Now that becomes a tailwind. I think numbers go higher in the street. And I think you start to now see it's not just about the robotaxi day and the start of that vision, but I think now growth returns to the Tesla story. And even though they've been on the outside looking in of that mag seven party, I think they start to get back on the dance floor. >> And Dan, what about the lower priced models on the way? What do you think the price is? How excited do you think investors should be about that? >> Yeah, I think that's going to be key to from a volume perspective, I think 28,000 to 30 K is sort of where we see that. I think they'll give some hint of that on August eighth, but that's key to the volume game playing out in Tesla in terms of the broader volume. Then it's the software. And then ultimately it's really the autonomous FSD. That's the sum of the parts to how you start to get to that bull case. $400. >> Dan, one of the near-term catalysts that you laid out there is robotaxi day. And I guess I'm curious, what does Tesla need to announce, or what do you expect Tesla to announce to have this historical moment? As you put it? >> Well, I think it's really showing the technology. I mean, this is because ultimately the carrot and the stick here is does Uber do they partner? In other words, like down the road, is this something where 510% of Ubers are actually using autonomous FSD? >> Dan, do you think they're likely? >> I think it's very likely. And I think it's something where in the next 3 to 5 years, I could see Josh in new Jersey getting into an autonomous Uber with no driver. >> Only if you're coming with me, Dan. Only if you're coming with me. Hey, in the back. Hey near-term Dan. Also though, more near-term July 23rd, Q2 results for Tesla. What do you expect there? Dan? What are the metrics you're going to be making a beeline for? >> I think the profitability metrics are going to surprise. On the upside, I think if you look at the storage, the software piece higher margin, that's significant, along with some of those tough cuts they've had to make in terms of cost cutting, profitability preserved, you now start to see a resurgence from a from a cash flow and Ebit perspective. I think that's also why the stock's rallying here is that it was sentiment. And we talked about the last three months sentiment so negative. Unless you thought there was something structurally wrong with the story I think the stock was just due to go higher. And now in many of those bears that talked about 100, now I think, you know, we're going toward 250, 300 on that, on that earnings call though, Dan, do you also want to hear more about how business is going in China, more color and commentary there? Well, China is the hearts and lungs of the Tesla story. And that's also why Musk has made some of those trips to Beijing, because that really went from a headwind to a talent. Now, I think we're starting to see a mini rebound in China. That's significant in terms of the broader bullish Tesla story, Tesla doesn't go higher without China growth coming back. And I think it's starting. >> What about the pressure though from domestic players there just in terms of the competition, the fact that they are able to offer these vehicles at a fraction of the price, is that going to be something that's going to hold back some of Tesla's growth? >> Yeah, look, that's going to continue to be that Game of Thrones battle that Tesla sees domestically in China. BYD, Nio, Xpeng and others. But it's not a zero sum game. I mean, I believe BYD will be a winner, just like I think Tesla is a winner. I think Tesla, as a global winner. But the goal at the end of the rainbow is autonomous FSD like if you're if you're playing Tesla here, you're playing for the broader vision. But I would just say, look, everyone viewed Nvidia just as a chip company a few years ago. Apple is just a smartphone player. 4 or 5 years ago. Microsoft is just a software player. Look where we are today. That's why in this AI party, we believe it's only 9 p.m. in a party that goes to 4 a.m. and Tesla will be a part of that. >> Dan, it is always great having you on the show, my friend. Have a great fourth. >> You too. Thank you. >> Paramount shares getting a lift after the company reportedly reaches a preliminary deal to combine with Skydance Media, according to The Wall Street Journal. So the drama continues. You knew that, Seana. You knew it wasn't over. Although it does sound like maybe maybe the drama could be coming to an end. We do have the reports. Skydance has reached a preliminary deal to buy Shari Redstone's National Amusements merge with Paramount Global. Paramount parent of CBS. MTV and others, now apparently goes to a special committee of Paramount directors for review. And of course, this follows the collapse of talks between the two last month. But it does sound like what's new here, per reports. Again, higher valuation for National Amusements. And importantly, it sounds like stronger language Indemnifying the Redstone's company against any kind of litigation that could result from the deal. >> Yeah, exactly. And I think what investors are trying to figure out right now and in reaction to this deal is whether or not this really changes the narrative surrounding the investment story, with Paramount now that they do potentially have this deal locked in. And I think that that is very much TBD to be decided here over the coming weeks and coming months. Barclays was out with a quick note here in reaction to this warning that it's not clear if it changes much in regard to the outlook for Paramount stock. They went on to say that after seven months, the fact that this is the only serious deal right now on the table says a lot about Paramount's strategic choices. So I think when you stack up this deal, what is being reported versus why the talks collapsed this time, maybe a little bit more money was enough to convince Shari Redstone that this was the right deal to go with. But again, what the future looks like for this company when you're trying to make that investment choice of investment decision, they're just trying to, I guess, evaluate how much is going to change under Paramount. That's very much to be decided. It seems like. >> Yeah, they make a good point, Barclays, because you look at this media industry and it's under so much pressure here. Streamers trying to reach profitability and traditional TV is shrinking. So you're still trying to figure out how the deal does get done, how it kind of addresses some of these bigger structural headwinds. >> Yeah, exactly. And I also think this also just points to a conversation that I know you and I have had with so many of these guests over the last several months, and that's just what the consolidation is going to potentially look like within the streaming space. Obviously, there's lots of talk and focus has been on Paramount over the last 6 or 7 months, but even looking beyond that, as some of the other smaller players within the space, how exactly or what kind of strategic moves they need to make in order to better compete with some of the larger names out there. All right. Let's take a look at Constellation Brands posting an earnings beat for its fiscal first quarter jump in quarterly profit as its beer business achieves an 8% net sales increase. The beer business, certainly a standout within this report. Margins improved at constellation. Better volumes, lower cost helping that out, strong demand for new offerings or CEO Bill Newlands within this release. Obviously very upbeat on these results and went on to say that this really reinforces the company's significant growth outperformance relative to the entire sector. >> Fan of Modelo Corona, I like it, yeah, yeah, yeah, some of the Lipton's. Absolutely, yeah, I was just reading through some of the notes right here, the commentary, some were saying Shawna Beer business did better, I guess, than they had kind of forecasted and modeled, even as they know the broader beer industry had been, I guess, kind of weak, relatively in the spring. They know. Yes, beer comparisons actually do get tougher, though. They also pointed out some of these analysts at the broader industry backdrop seems to be improving. >> Yeah. And what's amusing to me is how many of the quote unquote newer drinkers, customers that they were able to attract during the Bud Light boycott. How many of those seem to have stuck with modelo here? When you take a look at those comparison numbers there, yes, more people have gone back to drinking Bud Light, those sales improving just a bit. But again, the fact that modelo was able to dethrone Bud Light as the top selling beer in the U.S. and then retain some of those new customers, really tells, I guess, the story just about what that potential growth could continue to look like here in the future. >> All right, turn to another one here. Sean Annovis Bio's phase three Parkinson's study showing improvements in cognition after treatment. Here with more is Yahoo Finance's very own Anjali Onge. >> That's right Josh as you can see the stock for this company is down today. After it surged 119% yesterday on the good news. A little bit of that pullback coming from the point that you know while it did improve cognition that wasn't really the main goal of this drug. It is supposed to treat Parkinson's disease. And those that have, you know, an issue with motor mobility and the like. So the cognition part of it kind of rolls over more into the Alzheimer's sphere. And that's a separate study that the company is pursuing. So that's sort of where pullback coming from. But the good news is that the drug has shown some improvement. The company is still in discussion with the FDA on when they can actually apply to bring this drug to market. So there's no real news on bringing this to the fore just yet. There they are, looking as far out as October for this conversation. According to information from the call yesterday. So it looks like still kind of a long runway for this drug and this company. All right. >> And while we have you, we also want to talk about a different study that certainly capturing Wall Street's attention today. Putting some pressure on the GLP one stock, specifically the findings here from a Harvard study. What can you tell us about this? >> Yes. Okay. So this is an observational study. So I want to make sure we point that out. And it only looked at semaglutide which we know are the Novonordisk GLP one drug. So this cannot be broadly associated with Eli Lilly's drugs as well, the reason for the study was just to look at an association with a type of vision loss with use of the GLP one. So now if you recall, in the past we've heard many different side effects of these GLP ones over the years. One of them we recall really starkly was suicide ideation. They the FDA and the EU both found no links with the drug. So this is just another one of those things. And that was the point the researcher said, was just to let people know there has been some thing identified related possibly to this drug and to call for further studies as well. So that's sort of where we stand on that right now. >> All right. So maybe some of the downward pressure that we're seeing in the stock is just a blip here today. Right on. Thanks so much. Well investors digesting a fresh batch of labor data ahead of the key jobs report on Friday. The private sector adding less jobs than expected in the month of June while continuing jobless claims rising for a ninth week in a row here with more on what this means for the labor market and the fed, we want to bring in Interactive Brokers senior economist Jose Torres. Jose, it's great to see you here. So we had the latest jobs number, really pointing to the fact that maybe we are seeing this cooling happening within the jobs market. We also had the services PMI print out a couple of hours ago, pointing to maybe some weakness there. I'm curious how you're looking at this and really what this tells us ultimately, maybe about the Fed's next move or how the fed is evaluating this data. >> Great to be here Seana. Thanks for having me. Well I think that the labor market is slowing. But corporate balance sheets are really robust and employers are under no pressure to begin to lay off employees. However continuing claims just went up to a 32 month high. And as far as ISM services is concerned, consumer spending has been really erratic. In certain months, we saw the same result in April, an abrupt weakening. Then in May, we recovered back into expansion territory, only to dwindle again. So consumer spending has been erratic, particularly amongst lower and middle end income consumers. Now, financial markets have also supported consumer spending. So I think that the labor market and rising paychecks alongside financial markets being so robust, that's really supported consumer spending as far as the loosening in financial conditions, that's occurring. I think that's going to support inflationary pressures further later this year. And it's going to make it quite difficult for the fed to cut in September, although we are going to have two consecutive cool inflation reports. We got the one from May, the one from June next week is also going to be cool. But then that leaves us with July and August before the September meeting, which I think is going to come in a little hot, particularly as oil prices are at a two month high on heightening geopolitical tensions. >> So. >> So, Jose, when do you think you actually hit that the Fed's 2% target. >> I think we're going to hit the Fed's 2% target somewhere in 2026, you know, Fed Chair Powell was asked about it. He he didn't think that we would hit it this year or next year. In fact, when we consider the disinflation that occurred last year in the second half, now those base effects become unfavorable into the second half of this year. So we're going to actually see core PC start to tick higher. And if you look at the dots of summary of economic projections from the fed, you know they're expecting core PCE to finish the year around 2.8. If we do get a little bumps on the road, we could be at 2.9% or 3. >> Jose, I think we spend so much of our time talking about when the fed is going to cut exactly what that short term trajectory or timeline really looks like. But when you take a look at the longer term, right, there's lots of questions about what is going to be that new normal, what exactly that longer term neutral rate is. And you had the Fed's John Williams out defending the star model not exactly a surprise there. But I'm curious do you think how much has the economy changed post Covid. And when you take a look at that longer term neutral rate maybe what more. What do you expect that to look like. >> Well, so I think we're going to be in the high threes and the low fours. I've been telling folks that the short end of the curve is particularly attractive, because I don't think the fed has much room to cut without reigniting inflationary pressures. When we consider the shift from globalization to regionalization alongside deficit financing, which is not just occurring here in the states, it's occurring. It's a phenomenon going on all around the world. You know, that's really propelling inflationary pressures, in fact, we've been seeing a move in the long end of the curve and ten year yield. You were talking about it earlier heading up to 4.5, even with economic data, that's been surprising to the downside. And I think that's the market telling you that at the longer end of the curve, there are going to be some concerns. So again, I guess the question is if the long end of the curve is going to be, you know, call it at the bottom 3.5 perhaps. Then how low can the fed funds rate go, you know, we have to stay above three. Certainly. I think in this new economy. >> I'm curious, Jose, just given your your overall impressions of the economy and the labor market, get your views too on the consumer. Where do you think the consumer is now and where are they headed? >> Well, Josh, wealthy consumers are doing great. They have several homes they're appreciating in value. Their four one K's are going up. Their investment portfolios are doing great. Middle and lower income consumers, however, aren't doing phenomenal. They're doing all right. They're hanging in there. They have jobs. Their wages are growing. But it's not proportionate with how well the wealthier folks are doing. So that's where we're starting to see some significant cracks. Yeah, we're talking about it earlier with, restaurant sales and transactions. We saw it today in ISM services, you know, and I think that's really what's going on with the lower and middle end consumer. They're managing their budgets like a light switch okay. We spent a lot in May. Let's slow it down in June and then we'll come back in July. You know. So that's really but as that Erraticness begins to increase, I become concerned that maybe we really are at the end of the consumer spending expansion. >> Jose, always great to have you on the show. Thanks so much for joining us today. >> My pleasure. Thank you. >> And coming up, we are breaking down the best ways to position your portfolio in the software sector with today's investor playbook. Stay tuned. Much more market domination after this. >> Less than an hour until the closing bell on Wall Street. Let's check in on the major averages right now. We're still looking at green for the S&P and the Nasdaq. You got the S&P and the Nasdaq both on track to close at New record highs today. Flipping over though to the Dow under just a bit of pressure falling below the flat line here over the last hour or so. Taking a look at some of the sector action, why we are seeing that outperformance play out within the Nasdaq, some of that having to do actually with the semis stocks with the chip stocks they're outperforming. You've got Nvidia back in the green today. Some buying action going on there up nearly 4. You also got Taiwan Semiconductors. Broadcom amongst the Outperformers there. Arm up just around 3.5. When you take a look more broadly speaking at that sector action beyond tech and beyond some of those chip makers. We've also got consumer discretionary among the outperformers there up just about 6/10 of a percent. And materials also among the leaders there. On the flip side, health care still the underperformer today off just around 1. Let's kick it over to Jared Blikre who's taking a closer look at some of the moves that we're seeing in the crypto market today Jared that's right Seana seeing kind of a red wall here behind me. >> We see Bitcoin down just under or just over 2.5% Ethereum up down over 3. Solana down four. Binance token down three. So some some slightly outsized movement I guess you could qualify it as that. But overall let me just show you a chart of Bitcoin. I'm going to come year to date and I'm just going to highlight once again this long consolidation pattern here. Very interesting because now we're at the lower end here. And let me put some candlesticks on so you can see more precisely 60,000 is a very important level. We have dipped below it at least one time in kind of a major way. And that was a fake out led people to think maybe there was going to be a breakdown. But then we went right back up and tested the upper end of the of the range. And this is something that's been frustrating traders for several months now. Is this a time that the range is finally broken? Well, just be on alert for a false breakdown once again, but usually those don't last more than a day or two. So if we start heading down and for more than 2 or 3 days, probably going to head towards that next lower consolidation level, that could be as low as 45,000 by the time things shake out. And we know with crypto that prices can move very quickly. Let me just go over Ethereum technicals real quick. This is another two year chart looks somewhat similar to Bitcoin. But this price action here is actually much steeper this year to date price action is actually quite a volatile mix, but you can see Ethereum in the middle of that range. I'll hit Solana is to. Interesting. It's been in the news lately. VanEck filed for a Spot Solana ETF and kind of a similar to Ethereum. Not at any particularly interesting or encouraging level right now, but tends towards the bottom end of that trading range. So really watching Bitcoin here see if it holds 60,000. >> All right. Thank you Jared. Let's get to our call of the day. Loop capital is raising its price target on Reddit from $60 to 75. The note highlighting the open AI licensing deal. So Seana loop Capital. They like Reddit. They still like Reddit. They reiterate their buy. They do raise their revenue estimates for this year and next year. OpenAI I remember is going to license Reddit. Reddit's data become a Reddit advertising partner Reddit in turn is going to bring OpenAI features to Reddit. So the team at loop obviously they clearly like the sound of all that they do. >> They raise their revenue estimate here by 15,000,020 million for the year end for next year. Talking about the boost that this licensing deal, they see that really having on Reddit's business here going forward. They also talked about the fact that Reddit reintroduced ads on its discussion threads its fastest growing ad format here, and they had not yet adjusted their model for that newest enhancement there. So because of all that, they're seeing more of a bullish outlook here for Reddit. I also thought it was interesting, just in terms of the potential growth areas that loop Capital mentioned going forward. One of those areas that they highlighted would be growing. The user economy, helping enable users to earn money on the Reddit platform. That could include marketplace opportunities that sort of thing. They use that as example, as one of those catalysts, and then also the lockup period for shares, 82% of shares subject to the lockup ending, which will likely, they say, likely be close to August 9th, assuming that those two, second quarter earnings are at the same cadence as their Q1 report. So again, maybe that could be a catalyst here for shares as well. >> All right. Moving on. Software stocks could see some major upside ahead. That's according to some promising technical signs shaking off concerns of AI headwinds. We're taking a look at how to navigate that trade in the Yahoo finance playbook. And joining us now, Victor Casale Senior analyst macro and equity strategy at Seaport Research Partners, Victor, it's good to see you. So you seem to suggest your software has some some legs here. Victor, what we're seeing in these names, more than just kind of a short term rebound. >> Yeah. Josh Seana thank you for having me. Exactly that. It's legs. Legs meaning more than one step here. The sentiment has been entirely overdone. There was a period in the first half of the year where the software models were under pressure, or at least the perception of investors was that I would, disintermediate. Many of these seat based models and some of these, seat based models would be shifting to consumption, we think that sentiment has been overdone, and the proof points are that are coming through. Through Salesforce, through Adobe. And we've also had, through that sort of consternation of the first half. You've had an expectations reset. So expectations went really low for software. They're very high for semiconductors. And now as you get these data points, whether it's operational efficiencies of how software companies are employing AI or how they're monetizing AI. And in particular, Adobe was kind of our big proof point or inflection point for that, we think this AI story is rather early on the software side. And when you go into the back half of the year, you have budget flush, you have, the fiscal year end for the government, there's a bit of a seasonal aspect here. And lastly, to your prior guest point about the softening of the economic data points, you have lower yields, which tilts defensively for the market and software within technology is a fantastic defensive. Traditionally >> And Victor, just given some of the technical standpoints that you're closely watching here, I guess when you see when you lay out that more bullish case for software stocks, what does that upside potentially look like from here. >> Yeah I think you kind of if you look at the range that you can consolidate which you know, call it for the proxy that we're using here, the Igv, the software ETF, if you have a consolidation range over the last 6 to 9, 12 months of, 10 to 15, you generally tend to exit that and have momentum coming out of that. Our biggest thing, as with AI, which is pattern recognition technicals are as well. But we're seeing a lot of familiar reversal patterns in, software stocks in particular, whether it's their moving averages, whether it's their formations, and in particular on Igv, it's the reversal reversal formation that really caught our attention, the prior consolidation, that kind of springboards to the upside. >> You know, Victor, there's been a lot of time and money and effort pouring into AI. Is part of your call here. That you think you know when it comes to software names in the next 12 months or so, investors will have kind of greater clarity about who the winners and laggards are. >> I yeah, I guess that's what makes a market, some believe yes, some believe no part of the disintermediation is do you have access as a small company to AI models, and can you build a product off of that, or do you go with the reliable. And I think the market will probably shift towards the reliable. If you look at what's working in the market, it's market cap, it's size, if you're an enterprise, and I think this was the proof point coming out of Adobe, if you're a serious enterprise customer embracing AI, you want to go with your most trusted people. Salesforce is your number one customer, front end, CRM platform. That's where all the data is. Their data cloud was up massively, from a data perspective, it was up 40. From a transactional perspective, it was up 200. All on year. The point being is these are my trusted partners. I'm a real enterprise. I've got to embrace a transformational change. Am I going to do it with a startup that might get access to these tools on AWS or Google Cloud or Azure, or do I go with the guys that I already know? I think it's with the guys that you already know. And coming out of Adobe, it was like, oh, do these startups eat their business? And Adobe came back and told you, not only are we growing customers, we're retaining customers. And I think that's really the unwind of negative sentiment in software for the back half of the year that, we're, we're bullish on. >> All right, Victor, great to get your insight. Thanks. So much for joining us here today. Happy fourth. >> Hey, happy Independence Day. Thanks, Josh. Thanks, Jonah. Thanks >> All right. Well mortgage rates ticking up this week though. Still hovering just below 7. We will discuss home builder names next on market domination. Hi. >> Mortgage rates ticking up this week. With the 30 year fixed at 6.86. Once rates eventually ease and buyers enter the market, that could be beneficial for home builders in more ways than one. And joining us now is RJ Ausley, chief market strategist at toggle I, a platform that provides AI derived insights from market data. RJ, it's good to have you on the show. So, in broad strokes, RJ, what I understand is you're using AI to make investment recommendations. And right now, based on that, home builders, you say are looking pretty attractive. >> Yes. You know, I think home builders in 2023, they had a strong year of 2024, has not been nearly as kind to them with the ITB ETF down, underperforming about 20% versus the broader market, but there are some bright spots. I think, you know, two key things which which are screening. Well, Chairman Powell has sort of indicated that the next fed action will be a cut, even if we don't know when that might be, and the market is really pricing two cuts by the end of the year, as you noted, mortgage rates while they're off highs, that's that's been really sort of stymieing home builders, another key piece for home builders are that lumber. A key input is down about 20 to 30% since March. So we're starting to see that that tide turn this year where where we might be able to, really see an uptick in home builders. >> RJ, talk to us a little bit more about the methodology here. You're using AI to see trends to really help you ultimately pick some of those opportunities within this space. I guess more specifically, what are those key metrics that you're closely watching? And when it comes to home builders, how much it seems like that very much has been the story over the last couple of months. So I guess what has changed? Is it just the fact that we're getting closer, maybe now to that rate cut story? >> I think certainly getting closer to the rate cut story is, is a big piece of it. I think, you know, we connect often macroeconomic data and macroeconomic data and stocks. And we analyze both structured and unstructured. And what you're starting to see is that, on the macro side, you've you've seen this sort of lock in of, of mortgages where people who have had very low rates on their mortgages being unwilling to move. And you're starting to see even with the wage increases and wage pressures, hopefully, the mortgage rates coming down sort of helps that problem of, of job mobility and people moving and help with the volume of housing that's turning over the other piece is that you're seeing in a lot of the transcripts earnings, a lot of these big names within, within the home builders that have lending arms in addition to just building their really the sort of winners in this, in this high rate environment. You know, exactly as you've pulled up names like D.R. Horton, you know, $40 billion name because they, they can sort of win on both sides. Right? They're giving you the mortgage and they're and they're making money on the construction itself. It really it really often helps with, with, with some of their margins and really helps, sort of continue the business in a way that smaller names like Beazer at the bottom, might be under a bit more pressure. >> RJ, you mentioned some big name homebuilders. You also have some big name backers for your firm. I just want to ask you about Stan Druckenmiller. I see, Thomas Peterffy, how did you connect with those two and how they helped your business? >> Yeah, >> it's a it's a great question. We've we've had tremendous support from interactive Brokers, and from, you know, Stan Druckenmiller and the Duquesne Family Office. I think there's really demand across the street. To extract insights from data. Right. A lot of people have access to data, but the really hard thing is, is processing it, making, making being able to understand it, and really figuring out how do I save time. Right. And really, a lot of those problems are where should I spend my time? What parts of the market are interesting and where should I be investing or investigating further? And, you know, that framework that we put together really resonated, with Stan himself as well as with the Interactive Brokers. Founder. >> All right. RJ, very interesting. Great insight ther. Thanks so much for joining us here on Yahoo Finance. Have a great weekend. >> Thank you. You too. >> We are also watching shares of Intuitive Machines, which is under pressure after a big rally on Tuesday. Canon Fitzgerald reiterating its overweight rating on the stock as investors wait on its second lunar mission earlier this year. Intuitive Machines made history, becoming the first commercial lander to successfully land on the moon's surface. In our series next, Akiko Fujita explored the space economy with an inside look at Firefly Aerospace. Take a look. >> So start Hairnets. >> This is to make sure that no particles are left behind. >> What's going to happen to the lander? My hair falls on there spontaneously combust one of the mission XL. We don't want that one. Yeah, there's a lot of XL's back here. Come on in. >> So this is our clean room. This is where we do all of the assembly of our spacecraft. And you'll see right over here is Blue Ghost Mission one, the Blue Ghost lander is third in line to attempt a moon landing. >> This year. Developed by Firefly Aerospace, the company is part of a new generation of upstarts seeking commercial success in a place few have gone successfully. Firefly's driving a mission armed with $112 million from NASA. Its goal to develop a reliable delivery vehicle to the Lunar surface. >> One of the things that is a little bit different and unique about eclipse missions is that we are taking a little bit more risk with each mission, but it gives us more shots on goal. >> It's the new playbook in the space economy driven by Elon Musk and SpaceX. >> The missions that we're seeing right now are costing fractions of what they would have likely cost had they been run by NASA. >> One tenth of the cost, according to the World Economic Forum. That's fueling private competition, accelerating production times and increasing launch counts. >> We're learning from our experiences with our commercial partners, so it's a whole different way of doing the space program. >> A program looking to stay ahead in the next phase of a global space race. Crewed missions to the moon. This is what's next in the new space economy. We're getting ready. >> So they're chilling in the engine right now. Last little bit. Oh my God. >> That is incredible. >> They say everything is bigger in Texas. And at Firefly sprawling 200 acre Rocket Ranch, these daily engine tests are just a small part of the company's operations. >> This is our first stage of that Alpha rocket. >> The second stage is actually on our test stand. >> The mission here is to build an end to end space transportation company, with each vehicle manufactured and assembled in house. >> We launch, we land, and we orbit, and we're unique in that regard. >> There aren't many organizations out there that would say they do all three of those things as a purpose. >> Firefly doesn't just launch rockets and landers, it builds orbital vehicles that stay in orbit, ready to repair, refuel and relocate satellites. The company's successfully launched three rockets into orbit. >> So far, we'll have a lot of the same avionics on this spacecraft that we use for rockets. These right here are cold gas thrusters. And so those are the same ones that we use on rockets that reuse of materials is part of a push to drive costs down. >> In 2023, the company doubled the size of its facilities here to automate a big part of its production. >> This AFP machine lets us build our Alpha launch vehicle structures in just seven days, and our medium launch vehicles in 30 days, which is a huge improvement over months with the more typical technology of laser guided hand placement manufacturing nine times faster and seven times cheaper, according to Firefly. >> It's one example of just how quickly commercial space companies are transforming a $630 billion industry in this new space economy. It's the private firms driving the missions with NASA as the customer. How much of what Firefly is doing today being able to own the full stack is because of what SpaceX has proven out. >> SpaceX and their presence created a bridge where we went from almost entirely government funded and owned missions to a commercial infrastructure and a thought process that redefined how do we move with speed to get things built. If that hadn't been done well, there's no way we could have taken inside of the timeframes we did. >> That has saved the US government a lot of money by getting a commercial business involved that is not only doing this for NASA, but is now a launcher across the board for commercial and other government payloads, and it's spawning off all kinds of new businesses that lower cost and ability to move quickly has transformed the business of space. >> Today, companies like SpaceX are launching every 34 hours, every hour, and liftoff. That's nearly 260 launches per year. The investments are pouring in. The space economy is now forecast to reach $1.8 trillion in roughly a decade. Growth is largely been limited to launch systems and satellites, but NASA's leaning on these private companies to take them even further. The agency has awarded $2.6 billion in grants to develop a low cost transportation system to the moon to take NASA's research to the lunar surface, we can survey the south pole of the moon before our astronauts ever get there, and liftoff of the first United Launch Alliance Vulcan rocket. >> We saw two attempts already. One Astrobotic that had a valve problem, and then we saw intuitive Machines. >> We can confirm without a doubt, as our equipment is on the surface of the moon. Had a soft landing on the South Pole. >> It sent back all kinds of data. >> Firefly is next in line. It's blue. Ghost lander is set to launch in the second half of 2024 on board a SpaceX rocket. >> We have ten different payloads on this mission. We have everything from a device that samples lunar regolith to something that's testing GPS capability on the way to the moon, as well as a drill that's going to drill into the surface. >> That mission alone will cost roughly $100 million, according to the company. Back in the 1960s, NASA paid roughly $660 million for similar missions. When adjusted for inflation, 321 boosters and ignition and liftoff of Artemis one. It's all laying the groundwork for the Artemis missions. NASA's program to return astronauts to the moon. The first crewed flight in partnership with Lockheed Martin and Boeing, is now set for 2025 after a delay. What is NASA trying to accomplish this time around? >> We want to go to Mars and beyond. We need to learn to live in a very hostile environment, to be able to supply ourselves to invent, to create in order for us to be able to send humans all the way to Mars and ultimately beyond. >> NASA faces plenty of competition. Globally, more than 100 lunar missions are planned by government and private companies this decade, according to the European Space Agency. China is the biggest competitor. It's aiming to land its own astronauts on the moon by 2030. Why is it important for the U.S. to be first, particularly in the South Pole? >> I think that since it's very clear that China has announced that they are going and intend to go to the south pole of the moon, they've said that they're going to set up a research station there. All that's good. But I think from past experience with China on the face of the Earth, I think it's not beyond the pale that China would suddenly say, we're here, you stay out. And so that's why I think we're in a space race. To get there to the very promising south pole of the moon. Why? Because we think there's water there. And if there's water in abundance, then there is rocket fuel. And that gives us a gas station on the South Pole. >> Commercial revenues already make up roughly 80% of the global space economy today, that share is expected to get even bigger, raising concerns about relying too much on the private sector. >> In the past, you know, NASA very much has been a civil organization that works very closely with the Department of Defense and many of the technologies that go into space are controlled by the US federal government. The risk is that you start to put more and more of that into industry, and you're now beholden to the expertise and experience of industry, kind of in the same way that you are with a lot of the aerospace and defense industry as it exists today. We have a few set of very powerful primes who are great at what they do, and they develop some of the most amazing advanced technologies out there. But, you know, the government no longer owns and controls a lot of those assets. >> Martinez also says there's an added risk to publicly traded companies intuitive machines stock tripled in value in the lead up to its moon landing, but it fell more than 30% once shareholders learned the lander had tipped over, preventing its full mission from being completed. >> This industry is very difficult, very speculative, and there's a lot of risk in it, and it is hard to go at the pace that you need to go and to take some of the risks that you need to take. If you're focused on near-term value for shareholders, Firefly's remaining private for now, adding speed to its equation. >> In 2023, the company launched a satellite into orbit 27 hours after receiving the order, shattering the previous response time of 21 days. I just keep thinking that, you know, what you hear from commercial companies is we're more nimble, we can move quicker, you know, we're more aggressive. Is safety being compromised in all of them? >> No, you can't lose missions. You can't endanger people. There is no business plan that survives any amount of speed and agility. If you're hurting people and you're not protecting a customer's investment, companies are exploring opportunities beyond unmanned missions to the moon. >> Startups, astrolabe and Intuitive Machines are building their own vehicles, with NASA funding to shuttle Artemis astronauts around the lunar surface. Firefly's racing ahead with its own plans. The company is now building a medium sized rocket with Northrop Grumman, so it can launch its lunar lander without the help of SpaceX, and it's moving into lunar missions independent of NASA. >> We believe there's enough demand out there right now for us to schedule a Firefly run lunar mission using that platform behind us with 100% commercial payloads on it now, no NASA funding, no NASA funding. But isn't it interesting? NASA might be one of those tenants. NASA might say, hey, great, glad you're running that mission. We'd like a spot. And that's where this needs to go. Commercial industry, much like we plug into the wall and say, there's electricity there. Commercial industry needs to be running that transit. And the government, instead of being the prime contract driver, will be will utilize that capacity. There's most definitely enough demand on the commercial side to tell Firefly the indicators are there. Let's announce that mission. >> How important is it to get it right the first time? >> Nobody is limiting our capability to, hey, it'll be great if we just if we just make an attempt, we we're going to put that lander down exactly where it needs to go. And the Mary Crisium on the surface of the moon, that's the mission. That's what we signed up to. That's where everybody's focus is. We're in these to participate in these missions. Now, learn everything we can so that when the commercial lunar market evolves, we're ready then to scale it. I think our focus, though, is making sure that no matter how many winners and losers there are, Firefly is one of the winners and high degree of confidence. That's going to be true. >> It has been a rough week for President Biden. Amid questions about his ability to serve another term. Following his debate performance last week. And now new reports of backers of donors backing out and who could replace him are surfacing. For more on what's next. We want to bring in Yahoo Finance's Rick Newman. So Rick where do things stand right now at this minute. >> Well why are they staying at this minute won't be the same as where they stand in the next minute. So I don't think I guess I shouldn't spend too much time on this, but, the New York Times story you referred to is from a close, ally and donor to Biden. They did not identify who it wa. I have no idea who it was who said to the New York Times or the New York Times got word that, Biden has acknowledged to this person that, yes, he may have to leave the race if he cannot turn around. The, sinking poll numbers and all the other problems he's been having since that terrible debate from last Thursday. So, I see two things in here. Number one, this was a leak to the New York Times and whoever was leaking it to the New York Times may have been doing that to put pressure on Biden to withdraw. So if this is a sign that, perhaps even Biden's inner circle, as well as some of the outer circles are starting to say it's time for him to go, and suggesting that he knows it himself, that could intensify the pressure on him, separately, there was a Reuters poll came out today, actually represented a little bit of good news for Biden. It showed that Biden has actually improved in his standing against Trump on a nationwide basis. In that poll, Biden improved by a couple of points. He and Trump are tied in that poll, but first of all, that's not the type of poll that matters. The polls that matter are the ones in, 6 or 7 swing states, not the national polls. And, meanwhile, there are some other polls that show the opposite, that Biden is losing ground. And I think the next several days over the July 4th weekend, there's a lot that could happen, we're probably going to see more polls get a better idea of how Biden is really faring after the debate. He's supposed to do an interview live with ABC News on Friday. I assume George Stephanopoulos is going to ask him all the questions that are on people's minds. Was it really jet lag? How could it be jet lag? More than a week after you got back from your trip to Europe, are you aware that people think you're not completely competent and so forth? So that will be a chance to see how Biden handles it. And, you know, by the time we by the time this segment end, Seana, something else could have popped. So who knows Rick I'm just I'm also just interested in the process meaning you know let's say Biden does step down releases the delegates. >> Then what happens Rick. >> Well if Biden if Biden willingly steps down that that's not so bad for Democrats, then Democrat, dem you know, first of all, it depends. Does Biden endorse somebody, Kamala Harris, the current vice president, she she immediately becomes the front runner. And I think she becomes the front runner by a lot, so there's this there's this thing going on now that people are jokingly calling the fantasy football of the Democratic presidential campaign, where everybody is just putting together their dream ticket. So somebody suggested, what if Kamala Harris runs with Barack Obama as the vice president presidential candidate? Not going to happen. There are all these other combinations that are not going are not going to happen. But what will probably happen is there will be a ticket with Kamala Harris at the top and perhaps somebody new and interesting, as her running mate and then the challenge for Kamala Harris is can she overcome all the doubts that surrounded her after she had a very poor presidential campaign in 2020? And now remember, she only made it part of the way through the Democratic primaries and dropped out pretty early. She just ran a lackluster campaign, so people kind of think, well, it would probably be the same time around. I'm not so sure. I think I think she would get a period of time a honeymoon period, if you will, to reset. We let voters figure out. How much has she learned during the last four years, what have four years in the white House and other parts of the Biden administration helped her learn? Does she have more stature, does she present herself differently? So that's what I would look for. But, that is several, you know, news cycles away. I think. But who knows, maybe we'll be talking on talking about this 15 minutes from now. >> Right. All right. We'll bring you back for sure. Rick, thank you for joining us. >> Appreciate it guys. >> President Biden and former President Trump disagree on most things. Of course, but there's at least one topic they can find common ground on tariffs. In 2018, Trump began placing heavy tariffs on many Chinese goods. And when Biden moved into the white House, he kept many of them in place. Trump has promised even more extreme tariffs if he wins a second term. Joining us now is Eswar Prasad, Cornell University professor and author of The Future of Money How the Digital Revolution Is Transforming Currencies and Finance. Ishwar. It's good to see you, so as we noted there an election front and center and tariffs are front and center. Eswar You know, Biden and Trump, they do have different approaches, but they both have embraced tariffs. I'm just interested to eashwar to begin there. Whether when you think about tariffs is that in your opinion is that smart effective policy? >> I have just returned from a trip to China, and I can tell you that the Chinese government is certainly poised, for having to deal with, tariffs under either, a second Biden or other Democratic administration and, Trump administration. >> Now, there is going to be a change, though, in terms of the tactics and strategy, if there was to be a Trump administration in place, probably much higher tariffs. But the Biden administration has actually been quite effective in terms of limiting technology transfers, limiting China's access to chips, which matters a lot more to China right now. Essentially because they are trying to move up the value added chain, upgrade their technology sector. But the reality that China faces right now is that their recent recovery has been led by the production side, rather than the consumption side, and they need export markets. So I think tariffs are coming from the US and perhaps from other Chinese trading partners as well. >> So to the extent that you can, I'm curious what you can share just about the sentiment of Chinese officials at this point towards the U.S. and if we do see this continued escalation of tariffs, what exactly the U.S. China relationship could potentially look like here in the coming years? >> I think there is a baseline right now that is going to be very difficult to go below, meaning that it's going to be difficult to de-escalate tensions because in the US there is very little, political or economic payoff to doing so. But the reality, of course, is that, if one limits imports from Chin, that does have effects on US inflation, that does have effects in terms of limiting access to a lot of products that China is now marketing to a very significant extent, where it has a large part of the world capacity. Now, China cannot afford to lose access completely to US and other Western markets. As I mentioned right now, exports have been powering their growth, and at least in the short term, they certainly need export markets and they need the foreign technology as well. So they are trying to play nice to the extent they can, trying to limit their retaliation to what they consider proportionate retaliation. But I don't think it's going to get any much better, much better in terms of the relationship between the two countries in the coming years. >> And as you said, you just got back from China. I'm interested in your take on the Chinese economy. Eeshwar not just today, but where do you think it is six months from now? 12 months from now? Because we speak to a number of investors and money managers, and there is a fair amount of obvious skepticism there. >> There are both cyclical and structural factors that are a problem for China right now, as I mentioned earlier, what China has been able to do, which a command economy is very good at doing, is stoking production. So what they've done in the last couple of years is try to fuel credit to the parts of the economy that, they're traditionally relying on, which are the large state owned enterprises. The problem is that those are not very good at generating employment growth and more importantly, the Chinese government faces a problem right now, there are lots of underlying structural problems, weaknesses in the financial system, weakening demographics and there is a sense of economic malaise overall. And I get the feeling that both households and private businesses in China feel that the government does not have a very clear policy strategy, either, in terms of boosting short term growth or in terms of dealing with these longer term issues. Private enterprises feel that the government has become much more hostile. So we have seen household consumption and private investment not doing very well. And that creates a real imbalance in the Chinese economy. If consumption, stays weak and if private investment does not pick up, that's going to make both employment and productivity growth much harder for them to sustain. So some difficult times ahead, both in the short run and the medium term for the Chinese economy. >> Going back to what you just said, a couple of minutes ago there, when you were talking about inflation, some of the inflationary pressures that we could see as a result of tariffs. I'm curious if you can elaborate on that just a little bit here. If we do see that 10% blanket tariff that President Trump has floated in a couple of interviews or even escalating that up to, up to 60% tariffs, specifically on Chinese goods, what's the ultimate impact do you see to Americans and then that global fallout, what that could potentially look like. >> So there are two, elements here. One, of course, is the direct inflationary impact. If you think about, you know, low skill, low wage manufacturing, which China has been very good at, there are attempts to find other countries from which the US could import, but there aren't any that can provide those things at scale. But China is a very important part of global supply chains for a variety of other goods, as well, including electronics, including, solar panels and the sort of things that are very important for the green transition in the US. So in each of these, while the US looks to build domestic capacity or looks for alternative sources of supply, the fact that there are going to be rising tariffs on China will almost certainly affect US prices. But the underlying fact here is that China is trying to move into those industries. I think of them as new technology industries, green energy, electric vehicles and so on, which are precisely the industries that the US is counting on for its own manufacturing revival. So that, I think, is a structural problem in this relationship right now. It used to be seen as the economic relationship being a positive sum game. But given that both countries are now relying on exactly the same sort of industries for the future of their manufacturing sectors, it's becoming seen as a zero sum game between the two countries. >> Issoire super interesting conversation. Thanks so much for helping us walk through it. Have a great fourth. >> Thank you. You too. >> Coming up, a look at some of the big themes behind today's market moves. More market domination over time. Coming up. >> Wall Street is looking to maintain momentum after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit fresh records. For more on how strategists are viewing this market's performance, we want to bring in. Who better to ask? The head of news for Yahoo Finance Myles Udland Myles. As we lead up to the short end. Or as we do have the shortened holiday week lead up to the fourth, the market better be closing in eight minutes and the market's also better be closing at record highs. We'll see whether or not that still stands, but strategists are trying to figure out where the heck do we go next. >> Yeah I mean it's the time of year, right. The six month mark, you get a lot of Wall Street strategists updating their targets. Josh Shafer has covered over the last few weeks, all the notes we've seen. And this week three interesting developments. So the first one happened yesterday, Lori Calvasina and her team over at RBC raising their price target to 5700 from 5300. Guest. And I thought that a lot of what they had in the note was really interesting in I don't want to call it begrudgingly raising their price target, but they're cautiously, cautiously optimistic. Yeah. I mean, the team was not out there screaming like, you have to buy the S&P. I think it was more of a resignation like this market appears to be grinding higher despite all these metrics. That may not be the most constructive thing. It sounds like we are when you hear people like say, saying analysts saying yes, still buy Nvidia, it's like, well, I'm not pounding the table here. >> I'm just saying you got to. >> Well, and Nvidia of course, is kind of the reason the S&P is going higher. And I think that is frustrating. Not only investors. It's frustrating strategists because now we have this situation where we refer to the S&P 500, the benchmark index 500 of the biggest companies. What a great representation gauge of the balance of American business, and what a third of the entire index's gains are. One stock that sells chips. So like now you're a Wall Street strategist. I guess you've got to care about what Nvidia says next quarter, about 2027. Demand for its Blackwell you know, processing system. As if these guys know anything about that. We're all like, well, hopefully those people know there's an analyst like just a couple desks down. >> Hopefully next time who can explain. All right. Blackwell well yeah I mean I think that helps. >> But you're like, hey, your stock's up 600% last like three quarters. What am I supposed to do with this? You know, like the S&P 500 grinds its way on average to that 10% ish total return over time. And as a Wall Street strategist, when you are looking top down, what is the S&P 500 as a group going to earn? And what's the multiple that's appropriate for those earnings? It becomes a very challenging exercise when so much of that success is tied up. Sure, in Nvidia, as one stock, but really AI is one theme. The rest of the index is looking at earnings that are flat. Basically >> So then I get you not to jump on you here. >> Go for it. >> So because of that right. It's a very complex picture. Right now it's been all about A. We certainly have seen these price targets at least comparing what we have right now versus what we had 6 or 7 months ago. A totally different picture. Now, strategists, some of them are kind of just throwing up their hands saying, hey, we don't really see the value in having a year end S&P target. >> Yeah. On the personnel side, two interesting developments today. So we'll start with Michael Kantrowitz over at Piper Sandler. Just pushing out a note within the last couple of hours that he's not going to provide coverage of the S&P 500, he said, I'll have more on this in a strategy video, he sends the clients on Friday. But basically, his view is that the index is not kind of what we think it is. It's not what it's not what we say it is. We call it again, the benchmark index. It's not really serving as a benchmark. And what's always interesting in strategists notes, the sell side notes that we get here in the media is that a lot of this will be informed by the conversations that these strategists have with their clients on the buy side. And my read through and, you know, maybe we can have Kantrowitz on at some point to talk about this. Is that he's having a lot of conversations with money managers who are like, I don't want to hear about the S&P anymore. I'm not thinking about the S&P. I get it, I'm underweight. Nvidia sorry, but I run whatever my portfolio is. >> And this is the long short you know he says this Myles he said talking about the S&P 500 the market to communicate investment insights to institutional investors has he says become an exercise in futility. Yeah. >> So you know you're sitting there with some you know pension fund and they have X amount allocated to equities. Within that they have X to us etc. etc. Yeah obviously these guys don't have 20% of their portfolio in AI names. Obviously they're underperforming. We don't need to talk about it anymore. Let's talk about what do we have. How can we make money. And just saying hey the S&P is up a lot. Just you guys see that one. Like yeah I mean I got it. You know I got it. >> So and then we have Kolanovic leaving J.P. Morgan Marco Kolanovic leaving J.P. Morgan. >> and I think, you know, this one came out from our former colleague Alexandra Semenova, now over at Bloomberg this morning. And immediately everyone's reaction on Twitter was, well, that's the top, because when you have a strategist like Kolanovic who's been bearish, who is now, you know, going to be changing, you know, he's gonna be leaving the firm. He's got someone on his team stepping into that role over at J.P. Morgan, it's not hard to kind of add it up. They were tired of hearing about this guy saying the market was going to go down when it went up every day, so maybe the time is now. >> All right Myles great stuff. Thanks so much for hopping on with us. Happy 4th of July. >> Happy 4th of July. >> Any plans. >> We're gonna go to the July 4th parade in Chatham, New Jersey. >> Maybe I'll see you there Myles. >> Hopefully soon we can sit here and do a real Chatham talk. So we've got the closing bell coming up on the other side. >> We'll be right back. >> And that's the closing bell on Wall Street. >> On the shortened trading day. And time now for market domination. Overtime. Let's see where the major averages ended up here for the day. We've got Jared Blake also standing by with a closer look at some of the movement that we have been seeing. But another record setting day here on the street. We've got the Nasdaq closing up just around 9/10 of a percent. Taking a look at the S&P 500. That's also at another record here. Closing up about a half of a percent. We also take a look at some strength even within the Russell 2000 closing up. Just about nearly 2/10 of a percent here to the upside. Take a look at some of that sector action. Why we're seeing some gains at least here for the S&P and the Nasdaq. And some of that having to do with Nvidia. When you think about the biggest contributor here at least to the S&P gains, you look at Nvidia closing up just around 4.5. We take a look at that three day charts on that momentum that we have seen for Nvidia. And I guess too much of a different of a picture here. As you take a look at what has certainly been a volatile couple of trading days here for Nvidia over the last several days, but again, closing up just above 128 bucks a share on a sector basis. Still looking at a bit of a mixed picture, Jared, over to you. >> Yes. And I'll note that Xlk was the only sector that's tech sector that closed at a record high. And also we've been seeing some strength here today in materials and also consumer discretionary. And I would remind people that consumer discretionary just had a big breakout yesterday. The two biggest components Tesla and Amazon and Amazon closed down today down about 1.2. But I want to take a look at Tesla up 6.5% over these last three days. Up basically 25. That is a huge gain. And when you take a look at the longer term picture, you can see, well, you know, it still hasn't climbed all the way up to the midpoint quite yet of this very extended trading range over the last five years. But it's quickly getting there, I think someplace around 260 or so, probably due for a pause if not a little bit before. But let's also take a look at some of the other leaders that we've seen emerge today. It was a great day for a chip stocks also solar bouncing back cannabis stocks Chinese stocks disruption. So that would be unprofitable tech. And let's just dig into a couple of those. Here are the Ark components boosted mainly by Tesla. But we're also seeing some green by beam Therapeutics up 5. China I mentioned was also in the green today here. We got T.com. That's Trip.com up 4. Alibaba up two and a half, Baidu up 3.5. So another area that's been under pressure kind of bouncing back. But all in all I just bring it to the fact that July the 1st ten trading days of July, the most bullish of the year, when you take into consideration the beginning of a month or an end of a month. So especially going into this holiday shortened week, not a lot of surprise to see the Bulls in charge here. We'll have to see what comes Friday, which is kind of an odd day for us. With the employment situation report falling after this market holiday. >> Thank you Jared. Stocks closing mixed on this holiday shortened trading day. With the S&P hitting its 33rd record high of the year. For more on what this means for investors entering the second half, going to bring in Tyler Ellegaard portfolio manager at Gradient Investments. So Tyler, it's good to see you as my colleague Jared was just saying there bulls have been in charge S&P hitting its 33rd record high of the of the year. What do you make of that Tyler. What are you telling your clients about it. Do you think the good times continue. >> Yeah I mean I think generally speaking good times could continue. >> But the back half of this year certainly going to be choppy. >> Obviously we we're getting a contentious election coming up. Who knows who the candidates are officially going to be on the on the Democratic side after the news today, so it's definitely going to be a choppy second half. But if you look historically, statistically speaking, second half on a, on a election year, presidential election year and on a year that's been this strong, you typically get decent performance in the back half. But I think from a from a broader perspective, certainly start taking some profits on these names that have done well and try and diversify the portfolio a little bit. We don't need to risk everything on betting, betting it all on Nvidia right now. Obviously it's done very well, but I think you get a happier client with a more diversified portfolio from the top six. >> So what are you diversifying into there? Tyler >> Yeah you know I think energy is a is a good option right now. We like Schlumberger or SLB as they've kind of changed their name a little bit or Suncor Energy, a Canadian name. Those are a couple, you could look at some of the industrial side. So from the infrastructure bill, CRH, a cement company, is certainly one that we like, but you know, that doesn't say that we're we're taking everything off the table from these mega-caps. Right? We still like the Googles. We still like meta, and we still like Amazon. We still think there's room to run, but we may just be a little bit underweight on the Nvidia's and Apple's and Microsoft's right now. >> What about health care, Tyler I see that in my notes here. That's also a sector you're bullish on. >> We are we are generally speaking, most of the health care play right now has been towards Glp1, at least for the last call a year and a half. I do think there's some some opportunity outside of those names. In the more of the diabetes space. Dexcom being one of them is kind of my top pick right now, their ability to reach from from just the US market into international markets and the new products that they're bringing on. You know, I think this company has a pretty strong growth trajectory in front of them, and plenty of tailwinds behind them. So I think from a healthcare side, that would be the name that I would go with. >> Tyler, when you take a look at how calm the market's been, really, we've had this absence of volatility now for quite some time. Is that going to change with earnings season. Do you think that might could potentially introduce maybe this next wave of volatility leading up to then obviously the election I do certainly investors are going to be paying attention to Q2 and how those earnings go. >> Q4 of last year Q1 of this year has been strong so far, earnings revisions have actually been positive, but I think more of the focus is going to be on the election and what those policies are going to tell us, just like Monday, for example, interest rates spiked on on potential policy actions of either party. So I think, yes, Q2 is going to be important, but I think sentiment and focus is going to be more towards the election and how and diving deep into the policies of, of either candidate and how that's really going to affect the market for the next six months to a year. >> Tyler, we got through this almost entire interview. We didn't even mention the fed, which in itself is kind of interesting. I mean, does you as an investor or how closely are you monitoring the fed, whether the fed cuts this year, do you think that's that's critical to whether the market can keep moving higher? >> Yeah. Look I think as we entered the year, the consensus was 6 to 7. We initially thought based on on our expectations was 1 to 2, data was strong growth was strong. Fed was holding tight. Their commentary didn't suggest they were going to cut. Now we've kind of pivot a little bit, but we still think we might get one or no cut at all, I know the fed likes to be apolitical, but I would say that a cut in front of a contentious election that could be construed as as a political action, I don't think the fed wants to get involved in that. So I think your best bet is probably around December. And despite all that, data has still remained strong on the economic front. So there really isn't any reason for them to make any cuts at this point. Unless if we do start to see it, you know, more deterioration, through September and October. >> Tyler, when you take a look at some of the expectations here for inflation, we have seen a bit of this at disinflationary trend or disinflation trend. Powell was commenting on it earlier this week out of Portugal, saying that he has been encouraged by that progress. What do you think that last mile as the fed works to get back to that 2% goal, is that something that's going to be very tough, take a long time, I guess. How are you evaluating that as you lay out some of those opportunities that you're finding within the market? >> It's certainly going to be tough for them to get to that 2, and certainly don't expect it to be at 2% by the end of this year. And Powell has even said that. So for us, what's important is looking at obviously housing data is one of the stickier components. But then you also do get some headwinds from last year's disinflation and from some of the, the, consumer durables, you know, some they had some negative prints last year. And so I think there could be some headwinds that could pop up this year. So I think, generally speaking, you need housing to come down or slow, I should say, as well as some of the energy prices and food prices, I think that's going to be the, the biggest headwind, and keeping inflation this sticky. So it's going to be a challenge. And I don't expect them to get to that 2% target anytime this year. >> All right. Tyler Ellegard, great to have you. Thanks so much for, talking with us here. All right. We got the latest reading on the housing market, mortgage rates higher for the first time in five weeks. We want to bring in Yahoo Finance's Rebecca Chen joining us now with the details. Hey Rebecca. >> Hey Seana. We have seen mortgage rates of fixed 30 year average rate increase about nine basis points this week according to Freddie Mac. >> Now this is the first time since May that rates have increased. And also the first time in over four weeks that it went up. >> We've seen rates hover around that 7% mark for a while now, and one housing expert actually said this has helped inventory to come back to the market. And the reason is because with a more stabilized mortgage rate, more homeowners are willing to list their home by giving up their lower mortgage rate. Because and the reason is because they're getting a lot more used to the higher rate environment that we are seeing today, what has been happening is, as Americans, you know, move on with their lives, maybe they have a new baby, maybe they need a new school district. It's getting to a time where some people have to move and put that inventory on the market. Now, from the home buyer side, we have yet to see a return of demand at the activity on the mortgage activity, mortgage application is still very low according to the latest statistics, but housing experts are saying that as we see mortgage rates stabilize or even decline, we will see more inventory on the market and in turn that will help with the housing prices and bring buyers back. >> Rebecca thank you. Appreciate. Have a great fourth. With a rich history dating back to the 19th century, Eli Lilly has faced struggles and successes. But a booming market cap has quickly turned it into the biggest pharmaceutical brand in the world. Let's dive in to Lilly's biggest moments with Beyond the Ticker. >> With a rich history dating back to the 19th century, Eli Lilly has faced struggles and successes. But a booming market cap has quickly turned it into the biggest pharmaceutical brand in the world. Let's dive into Lilly's biggest moments with Beyond the Ticker. The company was founded in 1876 by Colonel Eli Lilly, a pharmaceutical chemist and Union Army veteran. Lilly experienced huge growth before and after World War One, including the expansion of its Indianapolis facility. In 1923. The company began selling Elyton to treat diabetes, the world's first commercial insulin product. Then, in 1952, Lilly became a publicly traded company on the New York Stock Exchange. In 1971, Lilly acquired cosmetic brand Elizabeth Arden for $38 million, eventually turning it into a financial success. It sold Arden to Fabergé for $657 million in 1987. Fast forward to 2009, when Lilly faced a fine of over $1.4 billion. The largest in U.S. history for illegally marketing its blockbuster mood disorder drug Zyprexa. It wasn't until 2022 that Lilly hit the jackpot with Tirzepatide, a new type of Glp1 product sold as Manjaro for type two diabetes. It began competing with Novo, Nordisk's, Ozempic, Zep, Boom, the same formula as Manjaro was approved for obesity in 2023 and began competing with Novo's Wegovy. The appetite drugs have spiked, Lilly's stock by nearly 100% in the past year. In 2024, Lilly continues to reach all time highs and is currently the biggest healthcare company in the world, with a market cap of well over $800 billion. Wall Street projects the GLP one alone will net Lilly $13 billion this year. It's why Lilly is on track to make history as the first trillion dollar healthcare company. >> Betting big on Made in America Walmart. >> Launching a line of t shirts from direct to consumer brand American Giant. Just in time for the 4th of July holiday. And it's a move to also combat the rise of fast fashion. Joining us now is Bayard Winthrop. He is the American giant's founder and CEO. Bayard. It's great to have you. Congratulations on this partnership that you just reached with Walmart. I'm curious what kind of insight you can give us just in terms of the ability. I guess the ease at which you have been able to 100% manufacture your items within the U.S. and some of the biggest challenges, maybe, that you have had faced running up here and to ultimately reaching this significant partnership here with Walmart. >> Well, thanks for having me on Seana. You know the US textile base has been under a lot of pressure over the last 35 years. Is so much of offshoring has hit that industry particularly hard. And like a lot of other offshored manufacturing bases it is increasingly dependent on orders that are one month out, two months out with a real inability to invest longer term in the automation and innovation and job retraining and hiring that's required to stay competitive. On an international basis. And so, though this, this partnership with Walmart, was never easy to hit, that kind of volume, that Walmart requires, it was a real breakthrough moment, I think, for our brand and for textiles more broadly, when you have a partner like Walmart stepping up to a long term commitment and a volume commitment that allows the supply chain partners to really rethink the way they're thinking about producing apparel in the United States again. So it's an important moment, I think, for the industry and for and for us as a brand. >> And I guess two questions for me. I'm just curious, first, just why, you know, it was so important to you to make the product here in America. Why was that such a core value to you? A core mission? And secondly, I'm just curious, kind of just the economics of your business. I mean, how much more does it cost you to make the product here than it would if you, you know, did like so many of your rivals did and just made it overseas? >> Well, it cost more. Josh and I and I would argue it should. I mean, I think one of the real benefits of manufacturing domestically is you. When you make things here, you do it within the constraints of the American system, which includes, human rights protections, environmental protections, child labor protections, living wages, things that I think we all as Americans really appreciate. And there's a bit of an inconsistency, in my judgment, when we allow our biggest brands to manufacture overseas, getting around many of those constraints while we hold our domestic facilities to those, those high standards, we got to pick a lane one or the other, and I felt the impact of that over the last 35 years was hitting middle class, working Americans really hard. And, if we have as, as as many of us know, middle class wages have been stagnant over the last 35 years, and that dynamic doesn't end well for America broadly. And I think we have to start investing again into the communities that are making things here. So we begin to give good opportunities to those towns, those cities that want to have good, viable and dignified work. And so that that was a real founding mission for, for our brand, but but maybe to the root of your question, it, it costs more to make things in the United States. And that put put most of American giants pricing in the premium end of the market. And it really was out of reach for a lot of working Americans that need to have access to good quality products, ideally good quality American made products at prices that make sense for them. And this Walmart partnership really has broken into that tier in a way that I had begun to wonder if it was going to be possible for us to do that without that kind of commitment and volume from a big partner like Walmart. So, it opens up a whole new consumer segment for us, and it really has caused us to, I think, really, rethink and reimagine what a domestic textile capability can be. And hopefully that challenge begins to make its way into the big brands in the US. >> But have you heard interest from other big brands to similarly try to take on? I'm sorry. Sorry to cut you off there. You dropped for a second on the mic. But Mike, my question is you certainly obviously now had this partnership with Walmart. Are you having any sort of conversations, seeing some interest from some of the other larger brands at this point? >> I think the larger brands and retailers have, as a generalized statement, have tried to be a part of the solution here. And I think this now points a way forward for them to join the conversation. So I'll leave it there. But I think there's a lot of interest, but there has been confusion about how to do it. And I think this is a this is a good example of how to get it done. And so hopefully that's going to encourage others to join in. >> All right. Have you been able to find it's still a tight labor market. It's hard out. It's hard for employers really to find the labor that they need. Are you have you been able to hire the workers that you need to expand at the rate at which you are hoping to do? >> Yeah, it's a good question. I think we manufacture typically in rural and urban communities that need work. And so we've been pretty lucky in that regard that there's a lot of talented workers that are looking for good, durable jobs. By and large, we've been able to hire the people and the talent that we need, so I think there's lots of communities. Maybe it doesn't show up in the labor numbers, but a lot of communities that need that need good employers. There And where textiles are domiciled, it's often in those communities that need that work. And so we've had good success in that regard. >> Buyer, I'm curious, what's next for your company, do you do you want to stay private or or would you be considering testing the public markets at some point, >> you know, I it's not something I spend a lot of time thinking about other than to say I think is a private entity. |
Mo1qroHMEVM | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mo1qroHMEVM | 2024-07-04 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Mattel doesn't need 'Barbie'-like returns for all its films: CEO | all right joining me now as a very special guest Mattel chairman and CEO Anan cries Anan first off thank you for joining us and then secondarily congrats on your award the entertainment person of the year here at Ken Lions uh you must be incredibly proud well thank you Brian great to be here with you and yes I'm very honored and humbled and happy to receive this award on behalf of everyone at Matel who had so much to do with our Incredible Journey over the last few years this isn't your first rodeo here at can lions at this point uh in Mattel's life what brings you here and then what are you hoping to achieve we came here uh as a team uh of people from Matel to interact and engage with Partners uh in the creative Community uh Mattel at the core is a creative company driven by Innovation and we very much look forward to continue to evolve our brand messages and continue to uh transform uh the company as we as we really Embrace creativity and celebrate the appeal of our Brands around the world I just want to acknowledge the obvious we're on a beach uh at the pier can lions the Yao beach house we have an umbrella here it is start to rain so bear with us as we have this um conversation just the reality of the French rivy area um how should investors think about your company now at this point I see you at this event a lot of creators here a lot of media folks is Mattel a media forward company Mattel is a leading global toy and family entertainment company as the owner of one of the most prolific portfolio of Children and Family family entertainment franchises in the world we have a unique opportunity to both continue to grow within the toy aisle in our core toy business that is performing well gaining share and last year we had the highest share gain ever in the history of the company in the US and continue to capture value outside of the toy aisle through entertainment and this uh is not just movies uh but also television live events consumer product and merchandise digital experiences music and other ver Les that are all driven by big franchises big Brands and this is very much what we bring to the table in a world where everybody is looking for big franchises uh that that really Elevate and and and Pierce through the cloud Market with unlimited content unim ubiquitous distribution everybody's looking for big IP big Brands and you have it uh so what is that portfolio look like you know as you try to capitalize on the major success of Barbie how many films and and TV shows do you have in we've announced 16 movies in development with some of the most uh creative Partners in Hollywood and we're very excited uh about some of these projects all of these projects have a unique opportunity we recently announced Masters of the Universe that will be released in June of 2026 that's something from my time in the about it we talked about it before I know you're a big fan big fan so that that's an exciting project this will have a theatrical distribution it's with Amazon as as a partner but it will also have a theatrical distribution we recently announced mon High another one of our big franchises in partnership with osar winning AKA gold gold goldsman as well as a universal as a distributor we have American Girl in development with Temple Hill which uh uh is a great producer and and Paramount Studios and Temple produced the Twilight series so very prolific creators and the Partnerships are really exciting in terms of the opportunity to Take Our Brands and reimagine them for in Theatrical distribution and uh and big and big movies I'm just going to hold this umbrella here momentarily it is what it is should investors think that every piece of content that you put out there is going to be a home run and how do you manage expectations yes we're not saying that every movie will be the next Barbie but we absolutely intend to apply the same approach the same methodology of collaborating with leading Talent amplifying their Creative Vision and infusing brand purpose and cultural relevance into all of our projects and this is very much uh what defined the the the Barbie movie the success of the movie of course was about a creative collaboration the ultimate creative collaboration but it was really driven by the strength of of the Barbie brand and the the purpose and the cultural relevance that Greta GG brought into this into the picture of course with Incredible cast in a great story but the foundation is a very strong brand that has a large built-in fan base and the same approach the same methodology will be applied to all of our projects Our Brands have a builtin fan base and while not every movie will be the next Barbie the opportunity uh can come from anywhere it doesn't need to be a big brand uh that will drive success so we and and of course by taking multiple shots on go with different partners different creative executions different distributors each movie has its own path to be successful and for Matel a movie doesn't have to reach the same level of box office success for for that for that to have a a commercial impact and so we're very excited by this slate it's a portfolio approach a portfolio strategy and you will see how it unfolds in the coming years is it hard to compete for eyeballs and I bring this up because I was talking to to uh Kevin mayor over at Candle media and he has a whole bunch of content coming out too and he's focused on taking his company to a whole L level content Le but there's only so much content that could be out there are we just at some poor some point of of saturation I think the what Mattel brings to the table is a very strong portfolio of Heritage beloved brands that are societal that have cultural impact that already have a large built-in fan base that go back two and even three generations and that is very unique and if you look around very few companies if any have the quality and strength of the brand portfolio that that that Matel can play with and we have a lot to play with and a lot to play for and Barbie was an obvious example but it's not just about Barbie and not just about movies because our Brands resonate in culture in a way that very few franchises do and what is unique about uh Brands is that the the fans that that that that follow these brands have they have an emotional connection with our franchises and that elevates your starting point so when we take a project to the market we don't have to build it from scratch and create awareness and build this relationship it's already there and once you have that in place with strong creative uh collaboration and of course course great experiences great stories great movies great television series great narratives you can create things that stand out in a crowded market and the point is that in a world of of uh so much competition for share of Mind unlimited uh offering of content and ubiquitous distribution the importance of big Brands is higher than ever and this is exactly the opportunity that we have and what is unique about where you know our journey is that we also have a toy business that is profitable we expect it to to grow and continue to grow and gain share and this is foundational because once you have that established you can of course continue to grow uh and expand outside of the toy aisle without strong Foundation no other host is holding umbrella I just want to make I just want I just want to make that point only for you no no no it's okay no you are distinguished guest no you're the entertainment person of the year at Ken Lin you cannot hold this umbrella what is how concerned are you about we've talked about this in the past but it's something that I've been thinking a lot more here on the ground the past week how concerned are you about the endgame for linear networks um of course I'm sure you've seen the the the difficulties at Paramount ABC is dealing with uh challenges at its linear networks because of streaming what's that end point um is there a Breaking Point yeah the world is evolving and technology is clearly having an impact on not just on on distribution platform but also in the way people consume content and how do engage with it and of course screen time is hard than ever except that it comes in different forms and the importance of entertainment is higher than ever and as the owner of the underlying rights of your intellectual properties we have the opportunity to capture attention and engage with fans wherever they spend time and our job is to find and engage with with consumers and fans wherever they are so the fact that you own the underlying rights as opposed to having to license rights for a particular medium gives us the opportunity to continue to engage and and commercialize uh uh our properties outside of the T Isle in in in in exciting ways in New in exciting ways lastly uh you don't win an award like you're winning here um if you're not working your butt off uh over the course of decades for those uh on Yahoo finance that may not be familiar with your career path and trajectory how did you get this job when I I uh was on the board of the company and was offered an opportunity to come in and Lead it initially as chairman and then as as CEO at a time when the company was going through a transformation and we've been uh very focused on continuing to uh grow uh growing our our toy business and uh you've follow the story so you've seen the turn of U of of of our toy business our category structure Ure the strength of Our Brands how we continue to win share and lead with Innovation continued innovation of our product and the journey for Matel as an IP company IP a company that is based the strategy is based on the strength of our pfolio of of of Ip how that continues to evolve and how we start participating in other verticals and we've been at it for years we're now at the inflection point where our entertainment offering is starting to come into its own fruition and you will see more and more projects movies television series Parks digital experiences in games you're not beyond the inflection point you still see yourself as is Matel still a turnaround or you're beyond that we're not in turnaround but we are at the point where our entertainment strategy is coming to fruition we're still early in the strategy even though we had some very strong uh success and and clear showcases for the potential of our IP the potential of Mattel films television digital parks and the other opportunities we have digital we have a very successful digital uh partnership in with NES for mobile games and there are multiple examples uh whether it's Parks or a uh the new television series that we recently launch on Netflix for Hot Wheels uh that has been a top 10 series on Netflix in 69 countries on it in its first week so we executing very very successfully in each of the vertical where we participate now it's about scale the question used to be can your Brands translate to Opportunities outside of toys then the question was can you do that do you have the experience and the capabilities now is can you do more of it no not whether your brands do it or or you can do it but whether can you do more of it and of course we can and of course we are now it's about scaling it and this is exactly the stage where we're at and I'm very excited by the opportunities ahead well good luck on your journey let's get you out of here because I actually think it's going to start to lightning soon uh Michelle chairman n CRI thanks for always making time for ya Finance uh we'll see you soon |
C31g6LY9TGc | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C31g6LY9TGc | 2024-07-04 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | How Premier Lacrosse League is planning for long-term success | welcome back to Yahoo finance I'm joined here by the president and co-founder of Premier Lacrosse League Paul Ravel excellent to have you on here of course want to talk about this obviously you're you're an athlete that's the background that you come from talk about some of the key ways you've seen that translate into business ah such a great place to start I would say uh work ethic jumps out to me athletes have Supreme work ethic and discipline around their work ethic on top out of consistent work ethic that's regimented those are all characteristics I've learned in the workplace over time differentiate great Executives from good Executives I think the element in team sports although let me back up even individual sports a lot of times have teams whether it's your strength conditioning physios nutritionists coaches in sports you you learn how to be a great teammate and that uh the sum of all parts are far greater than how big any or great any individual can become um and those lessons I think translate really well into the workplace where the challenges often happen I see is that when you become an executive the outcomes are less judged in the binary in sport it's you win or lose and you have to be the hardest worker in the room and all of these like sportism in business I found and in life and even in Romance about compromise and so can you maintain your competitiveness and offer a level of compromise because the deal that we get done I'm going to give some you're going to give some and we're going to be better you don't do that in sport sure so that's like some of the stuff I've learned over time what prompted you to to start the league and and what's the state of what you do right now well lacrosse found me when I was 12 years old my neighbor gave me his backup stick I went out for the wreck team I otherwise wouldn't have been able to afford it as I just played W Sports growing up and it's an equipment based sports like Golf and hockey and what a lot of people talk about is American football the difference is football in the 60s went the Public Funding route so we could all get our equipment for free and play peeee football all the way up through you know sport is the ultimate equalizer so long as that access is equal and I learned that as I you sort of accelerated through the ranks because I fell in love with this beautiful game learned that is the first game game in North America it's the indigenous game it was once in the Olympics in 1904 and 1908 it was one of the first college games played and then along the way something happened football basketball baseball hockey and America took off and Lacrosse sort of you know dwindled at the pro level so as I entered the pro game which was called at the time Major League lacrosse in 2008 I had a Facebook page I had a $6,000 wage as a rookie and I had a bunch of ideas and most of those ideas were unlocked through what we talk about here in can which is advertising integrated marketing creativity and knowledge um and throughout my first 10 years of playing pro I was sort of scratching my head going like man the rise of MLS and UFC non-core for sports are adapting to New Media and new technology the ability to go direct to Consumer and we aren't um so at some point the rubber meets the road and that was me and my brother coming together and raising Venture Capital convincing and all of my teammates and competitors to come along with us and we started the PLL under a relatively new age vision of pro sports and so when you look at how athletes have changed in terms of how they build wealth you know back in the day it used to be you know car washes or whatever it was but seems to be they all seem to gravitate to the same sort of Investments but this is a very different time now individuals as Brands how much has that changed and even in terms of the the players who are in your league as well well a lot has changed to your point so players are getting paid like owners these days I see players get paid you know two $300 million contracts over five years just astronomical compared to when the NFL was taken off in the 60s and 70s during the turn of the television era when we launched the PLL no we we we don't pay our guys $10 million to play like the NBA but what we did think about is what if the players in the NFL of the 60s had equity in those teams would they be very pleased or differently pleased with their um their successors in the NFL today the answer would probably yes so we offer our players full-time wages health care and stock options and so I'm thinking just through to answer your question through a lens of where I see the trend of sport going and at least through through our lens our players are building economic and Financial Security and long-term wealth as we continue to grow the league and I think players across disciplines look at you know a balance between cash in form of compensation through Partners versus Equity they have to make decisions this is where financial literacy comes in around stage right so we just saw the PGA Tour announc that they're going to give some of their golfers Equity but they raised at a two or three billion dollar valuation so you have to look at the equity I'm getting at this post money valuation how much can it go up you know the Washington commanders they were just sold for $6 billion so David Blitzer and joshh Harris are looking can we make this $6 billion worth 10 and that's not even a 2x so we often hear about stock and equity and these unicorn valuations and people get in a 13 to 40x return that's really when you're early stage so that's how I like think about and how we talk with our players about equity in today's climate now I think athletes are going to continue to invest in a wide range of sectors we advise our players and I talked to other athletes to think about diversification of their portfolio um but in the end you know invest in mutual funds long-term investment as your ally short-term Investments are your enemy and uh and and and then you know hopefully you surround yourself with a good financial advisor a good wealth management team uh but these guys and these girls in in Pro Sports can do a lot of good if they allocate their their Capital well and we talk to a lot of co-founders now of public companies but it's rare that we talk to what co-founders of of sports leagues one are you out there still raising capital what's your future outlook for your business do you see yourself selling it to an Amazon or Netflix so they can put it all over the TV I mean what's your how do you think about the long-term vision for what you do it's a great question so when we raised capital in 2018 we were very aware of the last 20 years of emerging sports leagues there's been roughly 200 since 1990 that have started with a 1% success rate and that's designated by your ability sustain Beyond three years of play think about all the leagues that have started maybe had a first year second year and then they turn over think about spring football and of that nature so we knew that we had to raise long-term capital and not rush to launch so I think that's important and we've done a great job with investors like Joe Tai to arto ca rain uh the churnin group so just really astounding Sports investors who are value creative to our business and our operation but are also long-term betting on Lacross um when we think about the future of where we're going to go we're sort of in a unique place because we're a team sports League that's wholly owned so we own the league all eight teams we work with our players on marketing deals so it's fully TurnKey which is important to advertisers and it's really nice for our investors on our cap table the exit I left out IPO too so I mean I figured I'd toss that up for you is three ways right so that's one another is you find a strategic buyer at 51% or more or you can build into that like Endeavor did with the UFC um and you mentioned New Media as as potential groups you also think about like the Liberties of the world that own F1 and TKO I mentioned and even Aries and um there are there's more institutional Capital looking to get into sports and ever before which we can talk about then the third path is probably the more likely or the more customary that you see in team sports which you sell teams which yields a return on a per team basis in the form of franchises to the owners of the business so I do want to ask because you you raised an interesting point about about where things are going when you look at sort of global expansion for some of these things how how close is that to to your plans at the moment it's big it's a big part of it so lacrosse just got back into the Olympics which is something that we had been working on over the last really as a sport 10 to 20 years I had mentioned we were once in it in 1904 or 1908 the impact you get in Olympics put in perspective is 3 billion people on average watch it which is the equivalent of 30 Super Bowls and Lacrosse has never had that level of exposure so that pursuit of organizing right now there are 92 countries that compete there's going to be over a 100 in the next year and Beyond as we approach 2028 in La that unlock is is really big and it's incumbent on the league now to continue to grow commercially help participation grow internationally much like David Stern did in the 80s when he went to Asia Pacific much like Roger gell is working on in the NFL now in Germany but in the UK and Mexico um but we have an approach where we want to invest because we know the challenges to emerge and grow in the US from a cost standpoint from an education and coaching standpoint uh so we've been to Japan been to Australia we're looking at the rest of of Europe and Asia Pacific to uh to want to say slowly but surely but very meticulously grow and help the international Game grow Before I Let You Go um you did a great panel uh with Michelle on financial literacy I loved it and I think she was the best really hard to moderate she's she's awesome she's awesome they had a short amount of time and you nailed it it's an honor for me to be sitting next to relle but I think you made a very good point on whether it's athletes or the regular investor listening to the wrong people tell us you know for those who didn't get that access to that panel why is that so important and how do you avoid like not getting sucked in by someone promoting stocks or financial products on a Tik Tok yeah so listening to the right people it's really everything going back to your first question which might help help us tie a bow on this is is team and my advice to athletes Having learned it the hard way and figured it out over time is take take your time interview several or more wealth advisers or groups a lot of us are program not to because sport is designed whether it's locally this is your high school this is your coach if you're fortunate enough to be recruited and have a choice which most athet athletes don't you get into a school that's your coach you're drafted by a team that's your coach so we're used to assignment so we got to learn that the leverage then turns towards us as athletes to meet the right people interview people ask difficult questions and then find references and the best thing that we do as a hiring strategy is we reference references because what a as someone who was interviewing to take a job at Yahoo finance you know they're going to show their best self and you know they're going to interview the best way right and you know they're going to show or give you references of people who will send them flowers so you ask the reference for someone who also knows and you go that way so I would say be really thorough around who you're building a team around and and what I said at at the panel I I I stick with today is is we work with UBS on financial literacy for our players we have an alumni program for our players uh to work with each other and find job opportunities when they're done playing uh I'm a big fan of everfi which is an educational mod modular uh technology platform that works with schools that essentially metaphorically ties Sports into Financial ly uh but what I think about is time it's our most valuable commodity how we're using it how we're thinking about our investments more longterm as we talked about I think about diversification we we've covered that and I think about relationships which is to your last question and the statistic that I love that comes from Scott Galloway who who I think does a great job of articulating this so I'll do my best to mirror it but the most important decision we make in life is is the person we choose to partner with and from a financial well-being perspective healthy relationships tend to ACR 77% greater net income than going at it alone which counter to how we think about generating wealth it's very it's very much a solo exercise it's not certainly that that importance of community see that reflected also in Ral Ventures that having entrepreneurs also investing in each other as well great having you on Paul Rael there president and co-founder of premier the cross League a pleasure having you here and of course Olympic torch carrier thank you all so beautiful love what you do read it every day thank you for having me it's a pleasure being here we appreciate you so much |
rzASWjEwc-w | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rzASWjEwc-w | 2024-07-04 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Why the 'human element' is core to DoorDash's business: CMO | joining us now on Yahoo finance is Kofi AMU Godfrey door Dash's CMO a pleasure to have you joining us out here in can so as we're looking at door Dash is a company a $46 billion market cap what do you think gives you your Competitive Edge we're looking at the stock price still up year to date well I think there's a number of things the way we tend to think think about our business is through like the key inputs right so like what do customers come to us for and we think about customers through every side of the marketplace so on the consumer side people are looking up to us for convenience we delivering that do we have the right selection the right price the right affordability in most instances we beat our competitors on those so if you think about for example non restaurant um stores we have the most in in the country we have the most restaurants on the platform so the selection on door Dash is significant um as a significant competitive Advantage we also think about pricing over time we want to bring prices down and so we believe that we have the right pricing strategy we bring that brings people back to the platform um but then we also think about like quality so when you think about being able to actually if you order does it get delivered on time do you get what you ordered and so we really focus on all of these inputs um and when things go right which they will when they go wrong which they will do we make them right and we work across all of those surfaces and we think we consistently from an operational perspective um outpace competitors on those Dimensions Kofi I'm an avid user of your platform and I've noticed over the past year things just seem more expensive but I still use it anyway like I I need these things delivered we're all busy people help folks understand why some of the prices have gone up and what's the end game yeah so from our perspective if you think about door Dash the way to think about us is as a platform so we don't control pricing from a merchant perspective so as inflation has happened Merchants have taken price right so if you look across our business whether it's our large Enterprises or our local businesses their costs have gone up so they've taken their prices up our fees year-over-year have actually gone down because we think about how do we consistently lower the barrier if you think about one of the reasons people don't order on a platform like ours it's going to be priced so we're consistently focus on bringing that hurdle down where we control it um we also have products like dash pass which is our monthly subscription product which if you use door Dash all the time I do had where this was going time to get the just telling you because if you use door Dash and you're worried about price you should have this product well done sir it's a good job it's true it's a good job yeah so I want to talk about how you're expanding Innovation wise I know there's been expansion especially when it comes to things like alcohol delivery what are some of the other ways that you think you're getting the edge when it comes to marketing door dashes in yeah so I think there's a number of things there's the product itself and then there's the marketing so like one of my favorite products that we've launched in the past couple of years is Double Dash so if you've used door Dash you'll be familiar with this where you make an order and then we tell you hey in the next 10 minutes if you want to add something else to that order um we will not charge you for that now those types of products are like doing incredibly well and they're doing two jobs one helping you grow your basket as a customer but also helping families actually order from multiple places at the same time so in my family no one can agree on what to eat for dinner two young kids they always want chicken tenders I'm not interested in that that's not like mine that's not what I want to do and so products like Double Dash actually allow you to order from more than one place at once and we're seeing that that's driving tremendous value for the customer we're also seeing that um it's introducing people to new categories right so you come in and maybe you bought uh a burrito but it's actually Valentine's Day week so not saying would you actually like to get flowers now and so it's introducing you to these new things that we have on the platform so like I love that product saving some arguments also have the burrito of course absolutely I'm definitely getting the bro um but then we also think from a marketing perspective a lot of what we're doing is really thinking about how do we storytelling to Market how do we storytellers um so for the Super Bowl this year we did this incredible um engagement called door Dash all the ads and there was a really simple thought which was like if door Dash can deliver everything door Dash should deliver you everything from every ad Advertiser in the Super Bowl and we're going to do it all to one lucky winner um we ended up with 8 million wow um and the level of social engagement was honestly absurd like there were people that are sending videos saying I missed the end of the game because I spent four hours working on trying to figure out this door Dash code so a lot of what we try to is like how do you drive engagement how do you drive action how do you provide value in every interaction and we find that that tends to work are we headed towards a decade of humanoid robots showing up at the door delivering us our Goods because I the SP the speed at which AI is moving and something I think we've been reminded of here Ken it's absolutely mind-blowing I mean I don't think that that's I would hope that that's not the future um look we so if you think about the core of our business it's about empowering local economies that's the mission Tony's foundational thesis was like walking around I found a Tony shoes thesis um walking around palato talking to restaurant owners talking to small business and figing how do we help and you think about a world that's moving online a world that's like if you're a local business you're losing foot traffic the core job that door Das tries to solve is like how do we keep these business in business how do we keep earnings in the economy how do we help people in the local Labs earn so whenever we think about AI or technology It's actually an augmentation of humans right we don't and if you think about our business like delivery you're actually going to always need people on either side of this like you're going to need someone to go into a store you're going to need someone to go and meet a customer and so there's a very human element to our business that we think is actually core to like why this business works yeah well I was going to say in terms of expansion plans then how do you see yourself scaling and replicating the business in some of these areas that don't have access to Door Dash yeah so there's a couple of ways um so we can think about within country and then out of country so if you think about the United States today um we probably cover 90% of the United States with our product so there's still even places in the US um that by virtue of like where the place is whether it has enough selection from a merchant perspective whether it has enough um gig worker um people that want to do this type of for work so the place in or just might be very remote right so even within the US there's like opportunity for expansion um but then another way to think about it is if you look at our business um regardless of our market cap and you look at the total category just of the restaurant business if you add up all thirdparty delivery Partners it amounts to less than 10% of the total restaurant business restaurants are still very much an online uh in-house business so even in that core category we think there's massive opportunity for growth um and then you look outside the US um we're in Canada we're in Australia we're in New Zealand um we acquired a Finnish food delivery company called volt a couple of years ago that operates in about 23 European markets and those same opportunities even in the core business exist everywhere else and then you start to lay on top groceries convenience alcohol Beauty we just launched Ulta on door Dash I mean so you get to this place where you start to become a place that's able to provide everything to everyone um and to help those businesses do well to help the gig workers do well and to give the customers the uh looking for kof this is the first time door Dash has been on yaho finance uh really so we were looking forward to to welcoming yeah so but you have a very the the company has a strong following on our platform and the time we have left share with them your personal leadership Journey how did you get in the seity O um how did I get here so um relle and I were vibing on this earlier so we're both Ganan I was born and raised in Ghana I moved to Ghana when I was 17-year-old um as a college student so I left my country 17 years old came here by myself to go to college um and then after college I actually never thought that this is what I would be doing I you know I studied economics I actually thought I'd be I'd be a finance guy that's what I thought I was going to go do end up on Wall Street um and I ended up doing an internship my junior year in college at a Ad Agency called Leo brette and I fell in love with this business because it was creative it was about Commerce it was about driving business it was about consumer culture it was about psychology and sort of like had this puzzle of things that I enjoy but didn't quite know existed in a job and then since then it's been you know I spent the first half of my career on the agency side and then the last half has been at places like meta place like bardi and then in the Last 5 Years um I've been I've been at door Dash but like what drew me here was our founder What drew me here was our mission um you know I'm I'm a product of access right like I'm a I'm a kid who honestly if if I was to say like if I thought I would be here today I'd be lying to you right like I came to the US because of a financial aid scholarship that's the only way I could have gone to college in the states and in a lot of ways I I think what door Dash does the best is it provides access so that's what drew me to Door Dash and it's why I'm stayed well we love the work that you're doing out there you know thanks to Door Das now I can get Gan food delivered I don't have to get up and cook it myself you don't have to go anywhere it's coming to you goof Godfrey thank you so much for joining us door Dash's CMO thank you for your time |
Zn6Rx0AUuyw | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zn6Rx0AUuyw | 2024-07-01 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Second half earnings could create 'a catch-up in markets' | we are officially in the second half of the year and markets kicking things off with modest gains the NASDAQ the top performer on the day joining us now is Brian vendig mjp wealth advisor Chief investment officer Brian it it is good to see you so we had a real strong start to the year Brian it sounds like what you're saying is listen stay positive more Good Times ahead well Josh I think over the balance of the year I think that is our our tone right now and I think it's predicated on the fact that we're expecting earnings to continue to expand on a sequential basis but as we know this first half of the year was dominated by some of those mag five mag seven names from last year continuing to lead the charge especially if you break that down over the last three months with nine of the 11 sectors uh in the S&P 500 uh trailing um our friends in technology and communication Services were most of those sectors were uh flat or uh to negative slightly positive on an overall basis big disparity in returns but I think that has an opportunity to change uh because as earnings expand from areas outside of Mega cap Tech and we start to see uh continued confidence in that slowing inflation story with rate Cuts being more and more a reality from September on I think that's where uh you have a chance for a little catch up in the markets so BR my question to you is does today's action maybe point to the fact that maybe some some of that is at risk when you take into account what maybe the market was pricing in today looks like it was more of a trump presidency some of the risks associated with that just in terms of the spending the tax cuts and what ultimately that could do to inflation and then of course a conclusion being what that means for the FED is some of that are you confident that this disinflation trend is going to remain intact or how much of of that is at risk right now J that's a great question um I think in the last couple of days the bond market is telling us that with this higher probability or near jerk reaction of of trump coming back to the White House we saw rates go up in the bond market uh with those concerns based on fiscal policy adding to inflation and the economy moving forward uh but I'm looking at things from a let's get to the election first perspective because as we know it's really difficult to handicap uh politics and so when you break that down the consumer part of the story is what's really been driving inflation uh and sticking on that iier side um and so with a slowing consumer slower spending uh we've seen and we're going to get the jolts number tomorrow we've seen less job openings less leap frogging with wage inflation and also housing prices um uh sticky yes but uh with demand Supply and and uh a little bit of a freeze there because rates are still high we expect some of that data to change as as uh real Market data is showing up in the government inflation numbers so we still feel confident that over the second half of the Year inflation will come down rates will come down the FED is signaled that they want to cut rates but they're playing the wait and see game because no one really knows but at the end of the day I think we're seeing some disinflation in the system and we're seeing the expectation of better earnings and that's why our tone is positive for the second half and Brian do you think the market needs the FED to cut in order to keep moving higher here or or is it just no the market just needs to think J pal wants to cut is looking to cut that that's that's a great point I mean I think right now the market is looking for clarity of policy I think when you're dealing with the uncertainty that's what's really holding back on Business Leaders and and some other um uh uh decisions to be made on where capital is going to be allocated but I think right now the market is still having a pretty high uh probability for at least one rate cut for in September I think the the the Futures Market there saying around 60% and a higher probability has has ticked up in December so we're still in the camp of one to two cuts assuming that disinflation story uh creeping through over the summer months into the fall and I think that's going to help the cyclical parts of the market to go back to your question you know the last couple of days when rates going up is it a surprise that the cyclical parts of the market like Industrials basic materials take a little bit of a pause why technology keeps showing their leadership we think think not I think if we get a little bit more confidence that that fed policy is going to be there for cuts that's where we'll see the cyclical part of the market have a chance to rebound and that might even play into the small cap Market as well I was gonna say Brian so given that what what are you seeing in terms of the opportunity maybe within small caps and then even midcaps as well given those expectations yeah shaa I mean that's where just big picture value paired with growth has been our theme for uh for investors over the course of the year and staying Diversified and I think when you break that down you don't have to pay 30 times plus forward PE like we're seeing in some of these Mega cap Tech names to get growth I mean think about Industrials with this rise of infrastructure spending that's still going to play out over the next uh nine years and data centers and other areas of of of of making our grid smarter healthc care uh m&a transactions Innovation new therapies coming out and small caps have always been disproportionately punished and that's been going on since March of 23 when we had two bank failures and people were concerned about a recession and rates and what is that what's going to happen to smaller companies well well yes they still need to play catchup but from a from a reality point of view they're usually the ones that press price the bad news first and then and knowing that that's behind us then they're the ones that come out of um uh uh those those situations to actually bounce back first and I think we saw that in the fourth quarter last year and I think uh cha There's an opportunity for that to play out when there's more certainty around that fed policy measures on rates as I said before Brian as you look for opportunities do you want to stay us focused or do you see any opportunities overseas as well that's a great question Josh I think you know we definitely lean or you know we do have some exposure in international equities but leaning more in the developed uh part of of Europe and and Japan but our bias has been uh more focused domestically here uh in the US um and that's just because of concerns uh with changes in the the dollar um as well as uh just recognizing some of these political uncertainties that keep coming up with policy as we saw over the weekend with things going on in France and also a little bit of this start stop uh and what's going on in China so right now we're leading more domestic uh but we're playing a close eye on where the dollar is going to move uh post election as we get a little bit more clarity on on policy uh both from a tariff as well as foreign policy perspective all right Brian great insight there thanks so much for joining us here today thank you both |
hICr7SSbBbo | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hICr7SSbBbo | 2024-07-01 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Chewy will now be associated with meme stocks: Analyst | it's been a wild day for chewy investors ahead of the open Keith Gil AKA roaring Kitty disclosing he took a 6.6% stake in the company and it comes after his tweet last week of just a dog which drove a shares higher but we are seeing the stock off well off those earlier highs now down just about 5 and a half% joining us now we want to bring in David Bellinger he is mizuho's senior analyst David it's good to talk to you so certainly has been a wild couple of trading sessions here for chewy I'm curious from your perspective obviously when you take a look at the trading patterns of chewy leading up to this most recent news it had been trading very differently than some of those other meme stock names is that now all about to change or has it now changed because of the activity over the last several days yeah great thanks for having me on look this this is a very odd situation here right we don't think this is an optimal scenario for chewy shares just taking a step back here this is very much outside of the company's control right Senior Management is doing a pretty good job in maintaining and managing the business going forward but I think these developments that you've got here today adding a lot of volatility to the stock and from an Institutional Investor standpoint I think this could create an impediment to owning shares right you're going to have chewing now associated with these meme stocks it's going to get grouped in with GameStop AMC we've all seen what happened to those names in the past so I I think from from here on out this excess level of volatility this excess news flow it's going to create a growing sensitivity to owning shares we don't think that's a great development for chewy David I'm just curious you know I mean the mem stock sort of trade theme I mean I'll be honest David in 2021 I I did not think you know we'd be still talking about this in in July 2024 but it seems like it's here in some form here to stay I'm curious just how if at all David it kind of just impacts and influences your job as a financial analyst it's a great question I I didn't think we'd be talking about this either but for for my view we're looking at Chewy from a pure fundamental perspective all right and chewy is a real company right you've got 11 billion of annual revenues you've got 20 million active and loyal customers free cash flow is starting to turn positively for chewy it's starting to inflect higher our real concern with the stock has been that you know net active customer growth has stagnated you've had six quarters in a row now with year-over-year active customer numbers down that's been the big hesitation for us chewy operates in a great sector we we think that Senior Management is doing a good job the sector overall has been challenged though you've got all these inflationary pressures it's been holding back pet ownership and new adoptions and we really think that's the key uh next Catalyst for chewy but but now with all this news flow that you've got here and trying to track data points across Reddit or Twitter or just somewhere else it just adds a new layer of complexity to all this one that we have to track but but I think from an Institutional Investor standpoint it's it's very easy to just avoid this headache right you don't have to worry about this if you're not a holder if you're not involved in some way and I think if you're getting more and more of this news flow and more and more of this fever pitch picking up you know that that's going to make you know your your typical Institutional Investor that much opposed to owning or or selling the stock and just just taking more of a view of a a neutral and standoffish kind of kind of stance here yeah I'm curious if you could talk to us a little bit more David just about that Fallout you mentioned the potential shift that we could see in Institutional Investor involvement beyond that how volatile could this could these next several trading sessions be as a result and when you talk about the fact that is trading now much more similar or more similar to a meme stock rather than to fundamentals you talk about the movements that we could see on the back of earnings things like that how much of that is now discounted do you think yeah it's highly highly unpredictable and for me to tell you what type of trading range CH will be in tomorrow in the next few weeks is is near impossible but I think what you are going to start to see is the fundamentals start to be decoupled with the way in which the stock is trading right and some of these things like historical valuation parameters maybe they get thrown out the window right it makes our job increasingly more difficult so we are trying to look at this from a fundamental standpoint if there's an opportunity in the stock but but in terms of you know day-to-day volatility some of these squeezes higher they they screen as potentially good exit opportunities you you had a big number one shareholder in chewy private Equity Firm BC Partners they're already selling their stake right chewy bought 500 million worth of shares directly from them there was a filing late last week that they use that Meme strength uh later in in the period to to sell additional shares $155 Million worth of shares according to that filing so you you may see in more and more of this as the volatility plays out but it's something to keep an eye on from the from the fundamental standpoint as well as just this day-to-day volatility a final question David you know and here's probably one of your more comfortable you know answering as a financial analyst just what are you know you're on the sidelines David you got a neutral what do you need to see I mean take roaring Kitty out of it what do you need to see here before you would be comfortable telling your clients Hey listen this one's a buy yeah absolutely the the number one element here and the number one catalyst is growing active customers and a sustainable way chewy went from about 13 million active customers in 2019 you had the whole pandemic surge the shift online spending that number ratcheted up really quickly to about 20 million we've sort of been stuck here right and the compan has had some mixed guidance on when and just how quickly you know that those numbers just start moving higher last earnings call with q1 results definitely a better than feared print and you did have some green shoes coming out of adoption numbers starting to pick up relinquishment data starting to get better on the pet side but it was pretty clear to us that we we can't fully underwrite this you know one quarter doesn't make a full Trend here and I I think you might see numbers from at least a pet sector begin to improve slightly but with all these cumulative effects of inflation Ju Just that clear path to a sustained upward move and active customers especially for a growth stock like this that's what's being uh held back in our view and with that's the next Catalyst and the most consequential data point we're looking at from a fundamental perspective David appreciate you coming on taking all talking all things chewy and roaring Kitty we appreciate it thank you |
mdj2hYT8Ofs | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mdj2hYT8Ofs | 2024-07-01 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Apple Intelligence is not enough to drive China sales: Analyst | apple is launching its next Generation AI Centric iPhone in September but some analysts say the company's new Apple intelligence platform may not be enough to spark sales in 2025 for more we have Yahoo finance is very own Dan Howley Dan that's right David VA at UBS Global Research is essentially saying that uh huawei's push in China and its growth Resurgence really after it was uh the US tried to kneecap it in 2019 is really putting a governor uh on Apple's ability to grow in 2025 and that the Apple intelligence platform may not be uh what it's uh not necessarily cracked up to be but may not be the the kind of uh offering that really pushes consumers to get out there and buy similar uh to 5G obviously we just uh heard Tom Forte talking about that a second ago that 5G was really uh kind of a a cycle change uh we went from uh 4G LTE to 5G faster speeds I'll be honest with you if I'm streaming stuff my phone I really don't see that much of a difference but whatever it was you know cool marketing I guess uh Apple intelligence uh is kind of a a new means of getting people to buy uh smartphones it's similar to what we're going to see from uh Google and their upcoming pixel phones that they're going to launch uh in August as well as uh from Samsung which is going to uh announce new phones uh this month actually uh they're expected to uh announce new phones uh this coming uh next week so uh where expected to hear more and more about AI but you know with that you would expect means more iPhone sales according to uh David Vault though it may not be this big push that Apple hopes it will be yes so J my question to you is they're up against some stiff competition they also had the fact that in China at least a consumer uh cooling just a bit so what's the Thought out there from the street as to what Apple needs to do in order to regain some of that loss momentum well they're trying to do that with with deep uh uh cuts on uh uh prices right they're they're doing a lot of sales uh in China trying to get more people uh involved obviously uh earlier uh last week uh Bloomberg had reported that there was a 40% jump in May iPhone sales in China uh after a 50% jump uh in sales uh in April uh but there's there's mixed kind of uh messages out there we saw uh counterpart research uh uh David W actually citing it in his uh uh note saying that self through was relatively low for Apple uh year-over-year I think it was nine basis points uh versus a larger growth of I I believe around 11% for the broader uh Market in China uh when it comes to smartphone sales so you know it's Apple doesn't give us insight as far as the number of devices that actually sells they stopped doing that a long time ago so now it's basically best estimates as to what users are buying um and so you know it could be that these sales are working they're help in apple uh but it doesn't mean that Huawei is going to sit uh idly by uh and allow Apple to just you know discount its phones and win in that way so Huawei obviously doing similar things uh to its uh Own Credit and then they're also rolling out uh foldable phones which are larger uh in China there they're uh that's a market that's really kind of interested in those kinds of products as well as some areas of Europe I've seen a lot of people uh walking around recently uh with Samsung's foldables um and so in China they're are foldables from the likes of Huawei and and xiaomi and such so uh that that's kind of a means that Apple could use perhaps a new form factor to get consumers more interested I think uh generally it's about they have two billion users right now give or take it's all about the the software strategy and and getting people hooked into subscriptions which has been its kind of uh modus operandi for some time now all right Dan Hy great stuff thanks so much |
MMEE3-Z9K6Y | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MMEE3-Z9K6Y | 2024-07-01 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Amazon well-positioned in 'battle of the AI titans': Analyst | well AI related companies notching market cap wins in the first half of the Year Amazon the latest to reach a milestone hitting $2 trillion in market cap for the first time this all while Apple Microsoft Nvidia battling it out for the title of the most valuable a company here with more on what may be in store next for these Mega cap names we want to bring in Tom Forte he's maximum group's managing director and Senior consumer internet analyst it's great to talk to you here so here we are set set up for the second half of the year we certainly have seen this massive runup once again I mean the story is very similar going back to 2023 it's all about a handful of tech names who do you think then Tom is best positioned at this point here for the remainder of the year yeah so I like Amazon so at some point when you think about artificial intelligence it's been dominated today by chips but at some point the chips or pic picks and shovels are going to have to result in actual gold and I think for Amazon they're well positioned to exploit AI not just at the cloud computing level with what they're doing with AWS but what they're doing at the Fulfillment center level to the extent that they can increase their Automation and reduce their cost to serve so I think Amazon's well positioned in the battle of the AI Titans Tom when you think about you know Amazon you think about these key drivers right you know it's e-commerce it's Cloud uh it's advertising also though the moves they're making in healthcare Tom I'm interested to get your take there how excited do you think investors should about that opportunity so when I think about Amazon hitting two trillion market cap uh I think there's an opportunity that their health care initiatives can help them hit the three trillion Mark uh more likely it'll be as you pointed out advertising e-commerce cloud computing growth I think they're very early stage in their efforts uh but I do think there's a potential given that it's a huge total addressable market and maybe one that's potentially rip for disruption but it's something that I guess I'm taking a wait and see attitude to see how their Healthcare efforts ultimately affect their top and bottom line and market cap tell Amazon able to reach this Milestone at a time here obviously when they're under uh under a tremendous amount of scrutiny from antitrust perspective I'm curious not only for Amazon but really what we're seeing from a number of those larger cap Tech names should investors be viewing any sort of regulatory Crackdown or any sort of regulatory uh criticism here as just noise I I don't I think investors are viewing it as noise but I don't think they should view it as noise if I do a compare contrast though on companies that are being sued for antitrust I think Amazon is better positioned than Apple to the extent that if Amazon were separated into three different companies a first-party retail company a thirdparty retail company and a cloud computing company you can make an argument that those three individual stocks are worth more than the collective whole today I don't think for Apple the same can be held true meaning if the company is charging too much of a fee on the App Store and has to lower its fee I think that would be you know wildly negative for the stock you know Tom stick it with apple I mean it's had you know just looking nice run here Tom recently I mean um you're still neutral what do you need to see Tom to get off the sidelines what do you need to see to to move to a Buy on Apple so if you look at Apple it has had a really nice run first they announced 100 billion buyback then they announced Apple intelligence and all their strategy surrounding AI the stock though is trading at north of a 30 times forward PE multiple if they do as well with an AI Le uh upgrade cycle for iPhones we're looking at 9 10% EPS growth next year that's still a pretty high PEG ratio of call it three so I'd be more interested in the stock where the valuation more to my liking either because the earnings growth is better than I expect where the near-term multiple is lower than it is today Tom what do you think that demand is going to look like obviously we've been reacting to the news that we had gotten out a few weeks ago when it comes to their AI initiatives is that going to be enough do you think to really spark some of that demand that the Street's been trying to figure out what more specifically that's going to look like so I have become more optimistic and an AI Le um recycle for Apple uh the challenge though we did some analysis when we compared it against 5G I don't think there's nearly as much pent-up demand for an AI enabled smartphone as there was for a 5G one in addition you're looking at Europe and China with regulatory challenges for Apple Europe's about 20% of Apple's sales China's about 10% so they're not going to be able to roll out Apple intelligence in September in those markets uh as of today so I think it's an upgrade cycle but not as good as the 5G upgrade cycle all right Tom Forte always great to have you thanks so much for making the time to join us here today thank you |
KLqpfg4DKNE | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KLqpfg4DKNE | 2024-07-01 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Fed decision a 'wild card' for markets in second half of year | while investors prepare for hopefully another strong July ahead Focus Still Remains on the fed and the path ahead for the second half of the year and joining us now is Jim schmigel SEI Chief investment Officer Jim great to see you good to see you again Josh sh so we had a maybe a big picture Jim we had you know obviously strong first half um what are you telling your clients you know do you think the good times continue do we repeat this in the second half well we're definitely letting them know that we think the economy has been much much more resilient than we had expected uh but we also are having them prepare for higher interest rates we're seeing that today this has been two pretty strong days uh obviously a lot of that based maybe on the outcome of the uh of the last debate and what that portends for November but but our view has kind of always been and this has being one of our biggest tactical positions this year has been for higher 10year rates I mean we we see inflation being stickier uh than expectations the FED wants to cut there's no doubt about that whether or not they should or not but we think we're only going to get one this year uh and and we think the does continue to drift even drift back up to that 5% level we the bigger news last week maybe even from a debt perspective outside of the uh debate was really the CBO report so you know we 400 we we're going to add $400 billion dollar to the debt since the February estimate we're looking at 122% debt to GDP in the in the next 10 years interest cost overtaking defense spending uh the picture is not is not a pretty one and supply and demand at some point is going to matter in the treasury market J when you talk about getting back potentially up to that uh 5% level what does that timeline look like how quickly do you think we could reapo those levels we wouldn't be surprised to see that uh as we approach the end of the year so the you know the the one wild card here is what will the FED do we we think we don't have enough time between now and and July July's off the table and and September might just be a little too close to the election so again they want to cut whether or not the data is going to allow them to do that remains to be seen we'll get another picture of that uh this coming Friday with uh NFP um but this bare steepening that we've seen in the curve is something that we expect to continue uh so this could definitely be by the fourth quarter of this year we're going to test those levels again let me ask you Jim um another earning season fast approaching here right I'm just curious to get your take when you look at earnings expectations do they look um achievable to you Jim do they look lofty how how do you think about it I'll take the lad they look a bit lofty um very optimistic uh I think earning season is going to be interesting from not necessarily do companies hit their numbers but how they hit their numbers are we talking about is this is this micromanagement is this expense management and BuyBacks to get to this number that the street has put uh on each individual company or are we actually seeing kind of organic growth and and outside of all that we're really more interested in guidance than we are in kind of the earnings like how how are what are how our companies seeing the next kind of six months of the year how are they preparing what what do they see the the economy on that kind of day-to-day basis basis what does that mean for the consumer what does that mean for the business environment that's going to be the most interesting thing but the the bar is high the bar is particularly high in in mega Tech I mean that's that's where it's it's very very lofty so J my question you if you see yields potentially the 10 year yield heading back to 5% you talk about valuations right now maybe some concerning Trends just in terms of How High that bar is here for this upcoming earning season where does that leave us with equities and I guess how much volatility should investors then be bracing for well it's interesting because you know volatility is the key metric here in index level volatility has been incredibly low you know we've we've been looking at 11 handles not that long ago so a little bit higher today individual stock volatility of course is always going to be higher than the index level but what's so unique is how high it is with the largest names in the index you know if you look at the the the implied volatility of Nidia it's over 50 I mean that's that is that is a really highly volatile name that just happens to be one of the largest companies in the entire world so uh so I mean our view on what we're telling investors is pretty basic at the end of the day which is diversifi diversify away particularly if you're a passive investor it's worth remembering you're a you're a buyer at any price and about 35 cents of every dollar you put into the market is going into 10 names and thinking about that in a different way maybe adding some active management adding some differentiated beta approaches equal weights or value indices not a bad time to be doing that to kind of take some chips off the table with this very very concentrated us large cap market and Jim you also you know early you mentioned the presidential debate I just want to get your take on I mean obviously listen we had the debate today we had the Supreme Court decision um how are you talking about this election to your clients what kind of questions are you getting and what are your answers yeah I think all of us in this business when we talk about things like politics we like to speak lightly but so uh no doubt look the the Betty markets are what they are we're pricing in a higher probability of not just a a win for former president Trump but really a republican sweep so now you're going to get tax cuts you're going to get tariffs what does that mean from an inflationary perspective the one thing that we are reminding our investors of is that it in one one thing in way one way in which it doesn't really matter is the debt right no one's talking about fiscal responsibility no one's talking about entitlement reform so however we get to an increased debt level whether it's through tax cuts or whether it's through additional spending the reality is we're going to be looking at a still a deluge of government debt coming down the pike that's not changing regardless of what happens in November so then what does that mean for the economy what does that mean then more broadly speaking for the markets given that risk that appears to be in over you know we we think it means a you know a higher than what investors are used to terminal rate from the Federal Reserve a kind of a higher inflation rate than what investors have been used to in recent years so that's that in our minds that kind of plays into this kind of higher for longer type scenario uh because again supply and demand does matter and we're going to have a lot of Supply whether or not all all the same buyers are going to be there for the treasury market kind of remains to be seen we're skeptical of that all right Jim great to have you on said thanks for helping us kick off the show |
eI_RiigrNyk | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eI_RiigrNyk | 2024-07-04 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Why your car may not be protecting your privacy | [Music] picture this you hop in the car after a busy day of work you punch your dress in to ways or whatever app that you're using to avoid traffic and connect your phone so you can play some music all the while your car is tracking every move you make according to Counterpoint research two out of every three car sold feature embedded connectivity and this is expected to grow to Almost 100% by 2030 and the Salesforce survey finds 65 % of drivers are unfamiliar with the concept of a connected car internet oriented nonprofit Mozilla spent over 600 hours researching various car brands's privacy and their practices here with some of the takeaways we've got one of the authors of that report Jen C Ridder who is the Mozilla product director of privacy not included great to have you here on the show with us Jen I mean what was the most astounding finding from the hours of research hundreds of hours of research that you put towards this study well our the most astounding thing is that every car that people buy these days is bad for privacy there are no good options for new cars for privacy for somebody who wants to go out and buy a car and cares about that that was really disturbing which of all of the vehicles that you studied was the worst at protecting privacy you know it was really hard to pick a worst because they were all pretty bad um you know Tesla of course raised a lot of eyebrows um but were they the worst you know it's hard to say I mean um Nissan said in their privacy policy that you had to consent to they could collect information on your sexual activity Kia said they could collect information on your sex life others talked about genetic information um so it's really hard to pick one I think across the board connected cars are all bad at privacy and so how can the connected cars because I mean based on those surveys that we were just rattling off it's not going to go anywhere anytime soon how can they become better about protection of privacy well I mean when you when you think about privacy you know we're going to have to give up data in our connected world it's just how it works and what what you want to see is is a product that collects data only collect the data it needs to give you the service so for a car you want it to collect only the data it needs to get you from point A to point B safely and and then use it only for that no other reason um unfortunately that's not what's happening with car cars are collecting an insane amount of data some of it they use to get us from point A to point B safely but a lot of it they use to make money off of us to um share for targeted advertising purposes to sell um to data Brokers where insurance companies can scoop it up and and raise our rates if we if it looks like we're driving poorly um and and then there's the questions about you know there's cameras in the car there's microphones in the car there's sensors so there know how many people are in the car and how fast you're going and how hard you're breaking and what you're listening to and all that can be gathered to create these inferences about us that know you know things like our intelligence our abilities where we go for dinner every Thursday night and so it's all a big problem and the solutions are are way behind and so with that in mind what what are some tips for people who are trying to take it upon themselves to protect their privacy while engaging with a very connected very highly technological driving and and motor vehicle experience yeah so so I bought a car last year as as I was doing this research and it was a it was a scary proposition but a couple of things that I did and and again I kind of make recommend these tips with the caveat that they're not all going to protect all of your privacy you just can't do that with a car these days but a couple of things you can do are don't download and install the app it means you're going to give up some nice features like being able to remotely lock and unlock your car or start your car um but it it eliminates tracking um don't connect your phone to your car and and I know that's crazy because you're like well how am I going to play my Tunes or or do my navigation um but that's a privacy choice that you're going to have to make um I I choose not to connect my phone to my car um but you know again it's it's not a great um option and unfortunately none of the tips I give people are great options and so I think the best tip I can give people um right now is to call your elected officials and say you know this is wrong our privacy is more important than car company bottom lines um and every connected big Tech company's bottom lines and we need a strong consumer Federal privac consumer focused Federal Privacy Law which we don't have in the United States and so pushing elected officials to to make that happen would be maybe the best place certain start absolutely Jen while we have you here just last I mean it's summertime we've got a lot of people traveling perhaps they're going to be renting a vehicle that has some of these features in it I I mean I know I've been quick to say all right let me make sure that I can pair it with Bluetooth and make sure that I'm connected to you know any type of AirPlay that might be taking place with that vehicle cuz I have a long drive ahead of me what do people need to be remembering specifically for those who are renting a car out there yeah car rentals are really tricky because not only is that data potentially getting shared to the car rental company or the car dealer um the car company but the next person that uses the car could see it and so again I recommend don't connect your phone to your car um you know do it do it the oldfashioned way you know just keep your phone off of Bluetooth and unconnected and and navigate and listen to your music that way um if you do connect it do your very best to wipe everything that's connected off of the car and that can be tricky um you know you can you can try and fuss around with the settings and find a way to delete it and then you just have to hope that it actually deletes everything it might not um so I think your best bet when you rent a car is just stay disconnected do it the oldfashioned way keep your phone um you know and and you know have a navigator over there hopefully to do that yeah all right whipping out the old paper maps here Jen C Ridder who is the Mozilla product director of privacy not included Jen great to see you here today thanks so much for the tips thank you |
rQM8Pv9BSHM | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQM8Pv9BSHM | 2024-07-04 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Rents are rising in most major cities | asking rents for apartments in some of the biggest cities in the US have risen by double- digit percentage points since June of 2023 here with more information on where rents are rising and where they are falling We've Got Crystal Chen who is the zumper spokesperson Crystal great to have you here with us so where are the hot spots where rents let's start with the good news where they're falling so um our most we have a report that we publish every month um and our most affordable cities now are witcha akan and shreport um and our most expensive cities are um in New York City uh New Jersey and in San Francisco um we're seeing a ton of Supply coming onto the market in the Sun Belt so markets in um Florida Texas Georgia they're seeing you know double digigit um rental uh price declines versus um the Northeast and Midwest markets like New York City Chicago are seeing rents up in the double digits annually you know I'm glad that you mentioned that because construction is obviously everywhere in New York City where we are but I wonder in other parts of the country that are seeing perhaps stronger construction the net effect that that is having on rents and what the kind of trend is that people renters are expecting in this near- term so yeah I think nationally our um index shows that rent are up 1 to 2% um year-over year which is pretty low but if you dive into regions you'll see that um like I mentioned if you're in living in the Sunbelt area um you'll see all these new construction and you'll see rents decline a bunch annually um versus in New York City um rents are the highest of the nation and um the current vacancy rate for New York City is 1.4% which is down from the 4.5% rate that it was only two years ago so even though there is a lot of construction in New York City there is still so much demand um and that demand has even spilled over into neighboring states like Connecticut um and Jersey since New Haven and um New York rents are also up about 7% annually too yeah that's been remarkable to see especially with those who are accessing public transit just to commute in commute out of the city |
DtNZYtuWOhA | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DtNZYtuWOhA | 2024-07-01 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Biden's student loan SAVE plan resumes after legal hurdle | the Biden administration's new student loan repayment plan getting the green lights to resume over the weekend a federal appeals court granting the saving on a valuable education or the save plan uh stay is what it was given after a provision of the plan was blocked after a judge issued injunction last week now this gives the administration the go- ahead to lower borrowers monthly payments this impacts around 8 million borrowers who have signed up for the new income driven repayment plan so far now the plan eliminates 100% of remaining interest on subsidized and unsubsidized loans after making a full scheduled payment now increases the income exception which Cuts monthly payments so this also in excludes The spouse's income if filing taxes separately so what does all this mean well it's a major win for President Biden the Administration has forgiven about $167 billion in student loan debt during the presidency according to the White House |
Fo9OmJijqso | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fo9OmJijqso | 2024-07-01 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | AI trade has plenty to grow in second half of 2024: Strategist | markets in the first half largely LED Higher by the AI trade more than 2third of the S&P 500's gains for the year have come from names like Nvidia alphabet apple and Microsoft investors want to know whether or not the AI trade of course is still hot on the back half of 2024 here and for an Investor's Guide to the second half of the Year we're joined By Dana Doria who is the invest net co-chief investment officer great to have you here in studio with us thank you so much so first let's start there with the AI trade that has absolutely fueled so much new Vigor into a theme that investors who were perhaps a little bit more passive are now becoming a little bit more active about here how much more legs do we think the AI trade has at this juncture oh I I think the AI trade has plenty to go right we're we're sort of at the beginning of this if AI takes off in any way in in any of the ways that we expect in terms of increasing productivity um you know enabling companies to change the way they do business we are going to have a huge huge demand for AI so we're just at the start of this I think what's going on of course is that there's a lot of focus around Nvidia and so where goes Nvidia folks think goes the AI trade which is not necessarily the case right this thing has to broaden out much more where would that broadening kind of start to take effect from your perview yeah so I mean to start with I think you're still looking at companies that support that support AI in terms of uh needs semiconductors for example right equipment manufacture facturing that's necessary for AI energy of course has been a huge theme this year around Ai and the expectation that we're going to need massive amounts of energy to power this so if you think about some of the international spaces where some of the stuff is made and they're maybe not priced so stratospherically as what you're seeing you know in in cases uh here in the US that's one way to play it I would say to be very careful though about um AI washing right and this notion that you know I'm an AI server and an AI this or AI that right I mean it it you know putting the words AI in your earning script is a good thing so everyone's doing it yeah facts that's been tracking the number of mentions and seems quarter after quarter that they're saying hey once again this is a new record quarter for the amount of mentions of AI on earnings calls you know all these things considered here one of the other major themes or or catalysts if you will that investors were tracking coming into the start of this year and they're going to continue to track going into the back half is the policy pathway for rate Cuts what is your best estimation of when that will start to or if it's impacting people's Playbook yeah it's definitely impacting The Playbook I think for sure so much in the in terms of our economy is interest rate sensitive and starts with you know what what's going on with interest rates um I think small caps have had a lot of pain for example they they're known to be more interest rate sensitive um and that's hurt them the higher for longer uh so I do think you know that monitoring of exactly how many Cuts I think look everybody kind of thinks we're going to get some start on the rate Cuts this year uh it would be an odd play to get moving too early on rate Cuts considering where our economy is I mean GDP is you know it it's good it's not the blowout it had been for a while there but it's good unemployment's fantastic still right I mean there's really not cracks there so with the market doing very well GDP kind of remaining pretty good and Unemployment uh low you know employment strong it's really hard to make a case that we need rate Cuts right away that being said in a reelection year the FED usually Cuts rates so we should expect some so is it one is it two you know betting on probably one before the election one after the election but there's a lot of data to come in between now and then is there a good election rule of thumb that investors need to remember as they're trying to really navigate what could be some potential volatility as UBS had put it in some of their election watch coming into that general election yeah look I mean the empirical evidence looking historically at what happens in election years it's there hasn't been a lot by way of correlation between the party in power and whether markets in general do well although M much attempt to you know create something like that right and find that kind of a link um but that being said of course this election in particular there are clear winners and losers that the market in fact you have whole country economies markets kind of moving on the basis of this election so you know China versus India right um Trump wins not good for China maybe not good for Mexico uh good for India and vice versa so so the idea of this near Shoring and and you know Trump kind of coming in and with with much more massive tariffs so I think when you're looking within countries and within sectors yes there are clear winners financials got a big bump after the debate I think we we can all you know kind of point to why that was the case so you know as as you're looking at the second half and you're you're judging where you're going to be in terms of the market the other thing I would just remember is look the market prices this information pretty quickly into the prices and I think a lot of times people forget that you know so the price has to reflect both the potential outcomes and the probability all in one number so it's going to move at least to a certain extent to to what the expectation is and you know then when the actual you know the event happens um the rest of that movement tends to happen so getting ahead of that is a very difficult thing to do Dana great to have you here in studio with us thanks so much for kicking off the second half of 2024 with us appreciate it Dana Doria who is the invest net co-chief investment officer great to see you thank you |
rI01CkMJIRw | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rI01CkMJIRw | 2024-07-01 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Fed rate cut likely to be delayed by political uncertainty, strategist says | we just got this data in coming in a little bit cooler than anticipated seeing some positive reaction a little bit of an action in the yield space here but as Brad was mentioning this is perhaps what was sort of anticipated this is part of the narrative we've been seeing what do you make of the data well I think that for now it appears that the bad news appears to be good news and the reason for that the fet putot is alive so the market is thinking well you know economic growth is slowing but it's slowing gently and so it creat conditions for their fit to cut interest rates and no one is at the moment expecting a hard Landing I'm probably not in that camp but if you think about what investors or majority of investors think they think it's a gentle slowdown and then rates will go down and you know the party can continue when are you anticipating that that first cut and and hopefully yes we all want the party to continue but when do you anticipate that first cut well it's uh well I would think that uh the end of the year is most likely simply because of the political uncertainty I don't think that the FED would like to lose this perception of its independence but I think that what is important is whether the FED is um reactive or proactive if by the time that the FED Cuts rates economic data get rates to the point that it's very hard to deny that the US economy is going into recession and the FED is responding by cutting rates I do not think it will help Equity markets simp simply because it will indicate that well we're already in a recession nothing can help you know help equities at this point however if they cut rates and economy is still strong perhaps slowing slowing gently but it's still strong but they manage to cut rates uh proactively preemptively I think that will prolong you know the strong performance of the market does it matter as much what the Federal Reserve does obviously it matters but given the concentration of this rally being really driven by AI driving two-thirds of the market rally so far this year if people keep buying chips does it matter what the FED does um I think to degree I would argue that it may not matter you know when uh the FED exactly Cuts interest rates but it matters what they say and what is the perception of the market about the trajectory of interest rates and we're talking about the First Rate cut but perhaps we need to think about the longer sort of time frame for rate cuts and I think it will matter and that's why everyone is listening to every single um member of the you know Federal Open Market Committee so intently in terms of the concentration of the market this R is a little bit long than it is and I would argue that the AI trade is kind of in a bubble the the difficult part of it and there was all the caveat bubbles can last for a while and they very hard to time and so this party could continue again just simply because there's still lots of money chasing this amazing a stocks um but to my mind what I see in the market um I would say that this R is getting a little bit tired if you look at equal weighted S&P 500 mhm uh it hasn't really budged since March and so you cannot really count on just a few stocks to carry the market much further I think it's time to take profits |
YGSW0V4XEUA | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YGSW0V4XEUA | 2024-07-01 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Supreme Court grants Trump some immunity from Jan. 6 riots | the Supreme Court ruling that former president Donald Trump has some immunity from criminal charges related to his attempts to reverse the 2020 election results this partial backing of the former president would delay any trial related to the matter joining us with more we've got Yahoo finances Rick Newman Rick thanks so much for coming in on this breaking news what do we know well we're still sorting this out it's uh somewhat complicated as many of these opinions are but the Supreme Court has said that the president does have absolute immunity from prosecution for official acts he conducts as president but he has no immunity for unofficial acts and the court is sending this case back uh to the trial court where this all began uh and part of what they will have to do at that trial court is determine what is an official act and what is an unofficial act and just to remind everybody this a whole prosecution this is one of the three Federal prosecutions correction two Federal two Federal prosecutions of Donald Trump this is the one in Washington DC that is meant to determine whether he has culpability for the January 20 uh 6 2021 riots at the US capital so uh this I think what this means in terms of the election timing for this year is this is not going to get to the point where uh it starts to we get to a hearing actually determining whether Trump is guilty or not guilty but that we are going to have hearings uh based on trying to figure out which of these allegations constitute official acts uh which Trump would be immune from prosecution for and which uh might be unofficial acts that uh Trump can be prosecuted for so Trump is not off the hook here by any means uh this is going back to the uh district court and uh it looks as if some point there will be a trial but probably not before November yeah I'm interested Rick in the difference between the wording here the Court ruling there is presidential immunity for official acts not unofficial ones as you mentioned just explain to me like a lay person what exactly that means and what that could mean for Donald Trump well I mean you know this this all gets into splitting hairs on definitional issues and I and I think part of what the court is saying here is we have not exactly uh decided what constitutes an unofficial act so I think you can think of it in these terms um it's an it's an official act um if you if if it has something to do with the functioning of the government or the president's job as the nation's chief executive uh now to put this um back in the context of the time this was all about the 2020 election and running for election is not to my mind an official act that is an unofficial act that is not something the president is doing in his role as the guy who's running the government um he's doing that to try to get reelected to a second term so that's not running the government that's a political activity which I to my mind is not a uh an official act but um that is just my interpretation as a lay person um I I think and this all is going to have to be in the context of the actual charges so uh the the the court is going to have to go to the actual charges and go through them and figure out well if this charge relates to what is clear clearly an official act uh then we're going to dismiss this charge get rid of this one so it's going to winnow the case down I think to what the prosecution can most plausibly claim were not official acts by Trump acting as president of the United States but unofficial acts uh by Trump acting as a candidate for elected office |
TW4cIdoEBpk | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TW4cIdoEBpk | 2024-07-01 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Sectors to watch ahead of the 2024 election | 2024 election could be a key risk for markets in the second half of this year just this summer we got a packed schedule Trump sentencing in his New York hush money trial on July 11th the Republican vice presidential selection coming up on July 15th and we've got the second presidential debate set for September 10th so how should investors be preparing for all of these key events joining us to discuss we've got Lisa Thomas TD cows Deputy head of research Lisa thanks so much for being here I know in your list of smid ideas here you have a section zeroing in on Washington policy for 2024 I'm curious from the perspective of you and your colleagues which candidate could potentially fuel more gains in this midcap space given the potential policies that they could be putting in following November 5th that's a great question but you know what I will say Madison is what we have been really focusing on are the names and on the themes that are really going to endure uh regardless of which party and which candidate takes the White House and and takes Congress uh because as you point to um there are a lot of catalysts between now in the election there's going to be a tremendous amount of noise in this cycle uh I get to use my favorite expression which is this one goes to 11 on a scale of 1 to 10 so I would say in fact we're really really focused on investments and on themes that are going to have that long cycle durability to withstand um you know the whipsaw regardless of of who is in place because on those themes we think in fact there is a tremendous amount of bipartisan agreement if you're talking about things like us China decoupling if you're looking at us protectionism and Industrial policy and by the way deficit spending because despite the rhetoric that you might hear on both sides what we think is that you are very unlikely to see lightning on defense funding at a time when we are seeing such geopolitical risk on so many fronts so rather than really focusing on which party is going to you know be um I think the the best driver for Mid smid cap stocks we would argue there are a lot of great smid cap opportunities regardless of who's in the white house so what is the thinking that investors should try to adopt heading into this busy cycle in order to not get spooked by the noise as you call it yes look again I think it's really focusing on those long run themes so if you're looking at industrial policy certainly AI is you know on everyone's mind and on everyone's lips and we're looking more in more at those second and third derivatives of AI use cases but in the meantime we're putting tremendous focus on AI infrastructure what are all of those you know architectural enhancements and improvements that are needed to really fuel the AI use cases that everyone's looking to so for example we upgraded Credo technology which which is a smid cap name in the space that is working on um enhancing speed in the data center um they had previously had a lot of customer concentration between Microsoft and Amazon but that's broadened out a lot and we think that investors are increasingly starting to embrace those kinds of infrastructural names digital bridge is another name that supports uh hyperscaler data center operators with a portfolio of companies in that digital infrastructure space we think increasingly by looking at names that are really tied to those long run themes then you get to steer clear of the noise you get to see what happens just as we all are um because certainly you know particularly coming out of last week's debate the endless headlines the endless noise we don't think that you're going to win in investing by getting caught up there focus on what's going to matter regardless of who's in the White House regardless of who's in Congress and what's going to matter with some real durability over the next several years |
5bOalEP3dJY | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5bOalEP3dJY | 2024-07-04 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Average 55-year-old has less than $55k saved for retirement | [Music] 55y olds have a median retirement Savings of less than $50,000 according to a credential report for a demographic just a decade away from retirement that's pretty far from the target of having eight times your annual income saved to break down how to catch up and how younger Generations can start off strong we've got Yahoo finances own Carrie Hannon here to discuss Carrie what do we know about how people can close that gap between what's necessary and where things currently sit absolutely Brad great to be here um yeah this study is a little alarming because that short Runway to retirement for someone who's 55 um and and it's worth noting because this generation also in the report showed that um they're you know woefully uh short when it comes to emergency funds they just seem to be grappling with a lot of financial issues inflation certainly plays a role in that but what's concerning is that that sort of and if you called Gen X is the 55y oldest Square in that age range you know from around 44 to 59 this year but here's the good news Brad it appears that younger Generations are actually getting started investing earlier and this bildes very well for their retirement uh another uh report I saw from Schwab actually showed that whereas Gen X didn't get started saving for retirement so that 55-year-old until age 31 the Jen Z so our youngest generation those who are in their early 20s up to say age 27 they started at age 18 Millennials around age 24 so we're seeing some momentum there of getting going a bit earlier with the younger generation the message is getting through um and the other thing I noticed in some of the new reports is that in the percentage of people who are actively investing I was really Cur it was really curious for me to see that gen Z again and those younger uh folks just getting rolling in the in the job market are investing at at a rate of around 45% and that is really encouraging so that was one thing the other side of the the equation is Fidelity's first quarter report came out and they actually uh pointed to some numbers that were op you know a bit optimistic and good for that Gen X that 55y old they said that Gen X has a total savings rate the ones that they monitor in their retirement plans of over 15 % and that's above what they recommend as a good rate of savings that's a combination of personal savings as or you know into your retirement account and your employer contribution but the good news here again j z hey they're going for it they've got 11% uh total savings rate right now and I'd say that was pretty good I don't think I did when I was that age yeah no me neither Carrie so so what action can people take right now to better position themselves yeah bro that's really really important to focus focus focus let's go back to that 55y old that that has under 55,000 save for retirement you have absolutely got to make saving a priority you do have some Runway but the fact is you know someone who thinks they're going to retire at 65 people really often retire at 62 for a whole Gob of reasons it could be physical reasons or what have you layoffs but so they may only have seven years not 10 years so buckle down you know really rev It Up and one expert I talked to said hey if you can save 25% go for it um of your income towards your retirement savings so that would be really cool the second thing you really absolutely need to do is if possible you know push back taking your Social Security this is a a hugely unpopular suggestion most people really like to jump right into Social Security as soon as they can get it at age 62 but the fact is if you can wait till age 70 and I know that's a big ask but if someone has the ability to do that you get the biggest paycheck moving forward for the rest of your life there's an 8% increase each year from your full retirement age which is around 67 to age 70 so if you can possibly do that and in order to push it back that third tip is try to stay on the job as long as you can obviously if there's physical issues health issues you can't but the longer you can keep working keep your skills up to date stay in the job market you can push back taking that Social Security and really improve your retirement Security in the future so uh those are really things that I I think people need to focus and and buckle down all right some top tips Carrie Hannon thank you so much breaking this down and the results of the survey plus some actionable items that people can really capitalize on thanks so much Carrie |
bnKexgD2EXg | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bnKexgD2EXg | 2024-07-01 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Why Biden won't drop out of presidential race | democrats facing what could be a brewing crisis here the political party has torn over whether President Biden can take on former president Donald Trump in November the first debate of the 2024 election cycle kicked off last week Biden's performance left voters increasingly concerned around his age raising questions as to whether or not he should drop out of the presidential race and how Democrats might replace him for more on what this could mean for markets we've got Brian Gardner who is the steifel chief Washington po policy strategist Brian great to have you here with us okay so just the likelihood that we would see any replacement at this juncture especially considering how much they were continuing to push out some of the campaign and and rally and Waffle House videos over the weekend yeah so it's less than 5050 that that the president uh would drop off the ticket um but it it clearly is not zero I have it around 40% um uh clearly going through the weekend there was push back from the inner circle from the Biden family um so the the tea leaves right now suggest that he's not going to drop off at the same time anybody who watched Thursday night knows that there are challenges uh for the president going forward uh and for the party uh more broadly so you can't dismiss the idea that there there will be an effort to persuade him to drop off the idea that he would be pushed out is is very very low uh almost zero but that he could be persuaded uh to to step aside you know it's not zero but you know it's it it doesn't look like we're heading in that direction do you think that he should Brian you know it's tough for me to say um you know without sounding partisan but look you know I think people can look at at the debate the other night um especially people who have situations with friends and family who are older um in their older years and you see how a progresses and so the question is not just can the president go up against Donald Trump in the upcoming campaign how effectively can he serve and uh and be president in another term that's a very serious question right now um I think to an objective Observer who watched Thursday night the answer is probably know and so I you know it's not for me to say because I'm not part of the the Biden family but they they need to have a very serious conversation right now I also want to get your take Brian on a new CBS News poll showing that an increasing number of Voters do not think Biden should be running after that debate over 70% of them saying to your point that he does not have the cognitive Health to be the next president of the United States that is up from 65% previously there given that polling I am curious from your perspective if Biden were to drop out of this race how does that impact who could potentially get into the White House next year right it looks like increasingly voters are not thrilled with the idea of Biden being in the White House does that necessarily mean that they would be thrilled with whoever else goes up against Trump that's a great question and and it probably gets you back to the answer of why he probably stays in because the selection process to for Democrats to pick a replacement could be disruptive chaotic uh fracture the party uh you know you start with his vice president who has her own um political weaknesses um does not pull particularly well if you go beyond her to other Democrats uh around the country um who may not have a strong base or a national base of support um this is a very complicated process once the if President Biden were to step aside and so you know I I think there are probably people you know within ER echelons of the democratic party who may not be happy with how things went on Thursday night but they also know the alternative isn't all that great so yeah there would be a conversation of the vice president of Gavin Newsome of gretchel Whitmer a host of other Democrats getting from where we are now to replacing Biden is uh is not an easy task how has the questions and commentary from your peers at steo from your clients evolved since post debate I imagine the types of questions you were getting right after the debate how has that conversation changed through to today you know I think they reflect what's been going on in in in the broader population um just a lot of surprise to a degree of shock um at at the performance on Thursday night um I I think there's a reflection that the odds of a trump Victory uh have gone up we were kind of evolving slowly in that direction over several months with with the investors becoming um more confident or believing that Trump was more likely to win um that jumped up um after after Thursday night um but I think those conversations generally are are one you know what sectors do well um how does the market react but also just the general sense that reflects everything you've heard about what you guys have been talking about on your shows and what you've read in the media is there a leading candidate you believe could replace Biden I I think you have to start with the vice president um you know she would she would have a big but not insurmountable Advantage she would she uh she would inherit the Biden campaign the Biden fundraising apparatus um I I think the president himself would probably lean into her candidacy a little bit uh for two reasons um one to validate his selection of her back in 2020 and to he's been a vice president I think he's very sympathetic to what KLA Harris goes through every day um it's not easy being vice president you have the president's staff kind of carping at you all the time um um so I I I think you start there um after that um then then I think it's an open very open field |
QncllyLazU4 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QncllyLazU4 | 2024-07-01 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Oil market's biggest risk is Middle East tensions, analyst says | oil prices are moving higher this morning you can see on your screen here WTI Crude and Brent both moving to the upside now this comes amid a Resurgence of geopolitical risks globally and increased demand driven by summer driving joining us to discuss his call on the price of oil is Andy lippo lippo oil Associates pres president Andy thank you so much for being here this morning talk to me about your call for the price of oil and what you think will get us there by the end of this year well good morning and thank you for having me I think the biggest fear in the market is the geopolitical tensions that we're seeing in the Middle East especially as Israel is reducing its fighting over in the the Gaza area moving troops to the northern border with Lebanon in anticipation of more violence with Hezbollah which ultimately could bring Iran directly into the conflict and that's the oil Market's concern because that could spread to interrupting supplies through throughout the pers Persian Gulf region so between that as well as increasing demand from now through the end of the year I'm expecting to see Brent crude oil prices drift up to about $90 a battle Andy you know one of my um kind of sub things to watch for the rest of this year which you know I had to put on the back burner and safe for this conversation fortunately was what OPEC may do on the supply side towards the end of this year what what are you anticipating the actions could be for how they they might actually spur or put even more Supply into the system and and what that would mean more broadly well in early June OPEC plus surprised the market in the sense that not only did they extend their production cuts through the end of September but they did decide to start reducing those production Cuts beginning up in October and those voluntary production cuts of course were led by Saudi Arabia and Russia it's easy to see that OPEC plus has surprised the market before they could do it once again if crude oil prices were to remain in the $80 per barrel range they could extend those voluntary production cuts through the end of the year but the initial announcement from OPEC plus was uh reacted quite bearishly with the oil Market as they saw more Supply coming on to the market sooner than expected Andy how does the presidential election play into your out look here because there are many who come on our show to argue that the president will do whatever he can to keep the price of oil down heading into November 5th well the Biden Administration has certainly taken a number of steps to do that whether it's releasing strategic petroleum Reserve crude oil last year or this year recently releasing gasoline in the Strategic petroleum Reserve in the Northeast I think post the election it's difficult for for either Administration to control the world oil Market the best they can do is through our foreign policy of exporting additional quantities of energy allows us to have more of an influence in those markets but one can see with the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East the United States influence is really limited well I want to end by going global with you here Andy I know that there is a lot of risk globally here you've got Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries you've also got the potential growth story in China you also have the tensions in the Middle East which of those seems to be the biggest geopolitical risk in terms of the potential impact on crude moving forward here I certainly think that it's in the midd East what we've seen from Russia and Ukraine is that over time Russia has been able to skirt the sanctions and in addition um you know the the China growth story you know continues to dampen enthusiasm in the oil Market we just saw that China PMI was down to 49.5 uh last month which is the lowest it had been in the last five months so of course that is always dampening the enthusiasm on oil prices Andy Lipa who is the Lipo oil Associates president Andy thanks so much for taking the time here this morning thanks for having me |
-E8ZcO3d-Ns | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-E8ZcO3d-Ns | 2024-07-01 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Investors should diversify out of AI stocks: Strategist | markets are edging higher to kick off the second half of the year that is after an AI fueled rally in the first half driving 2third of market gains to discuss what we might see for the second half of this year we've got Jeffrey kleintop he's Charles Schwab's Chief Global investment strategist and managing director Jeffrey thanks so much for being here look I feel like we've had this question mark about consolidation and valuations for quite some time now at what point do you see that question mark becoming a real risk to this Market rally you know we've been fans of of AI and AI stocks for for quite a while now but we're we're tempering that enthusiasm actually looking to leadership from sectors like financials and energy and materials in the second half of the year you know a very unique thing happened in the second quarter that's only happened five times in the last 30 years and that's the indexes were up on average but the average stock was down for the S&P 500 the index was up 4.3% in Q2 but the average stock in the S&P 500 was down 2.8% and that was true around the world we could even see it in the all country World index from msci that was down the average stock was down 1.7% in Q2 even though the overall Benchmark itself was up 2.4 and you're right it's all about Ai and so that increasing concentration of performance in Q2 is something we have not seen in a long time so yes AI out perform for a while but it's the only thing seemingly outperforming in Q2 and I think the risks to the market in Q3 tied of that very narrow leadership ship suggest that investors should look for some diversification out of those handful of stocks when can investors know that it's the right time to begin taking profits in their AI trade well when they can see that there are opportunities elsewhere there are a number of other parts of the market that are much more attractively valued and of increasing earnings momentum you know one of the things that we've seen over the last four or five quarters is that AI stocks have driven almost all the earnings gains in fact the average stock has seen earnings losses in the last four quarters on a year-year growth basis that changes now we're actually starting to see here in the third quarter earnings even outside the US the earnings for the Euro 600 index or the Euro stock 600 index are expected to grow faster than those in the S&P 500 this quarter so you're finally starting to see earnings growth that exceeds that of the US uh exceeds that of the tech sector outside of that and I think that's the Turning Point here in terms of relative performance Jeffrey I also want to talk to you about what we're seeing in terms of global elections obvious viously following the news of marine leen's success overnight in France uh but also we are seeing this Global push towards more of a populist policy regime to what extent could that reverse some of the inflation progress that Global central banks have made given some of the policies that do come with populism it's a great point when we talk about widespread tariffs and it's not just the US that's talking about increasing tariffs Europe has talked about that Japan many countries Canada are focusing on that so when we have multiple barriers to trade and increasing tariffs around the world will that certainly does risk higher inflation also a Slowdown in the increasing momentum in manufacturing you know manufacturing was in recession last year we finally seen a recovery there that's helped lift economies like Germany's out of recession but the concern is that export growth then begins to weaken for manufactured firms so the recovery we've seen and that the uh the decline in inflation is at risk from populist policies we'll have to see how much they actually take root should these populists win uh France will be an interesting referendum on that of course we've had elections in India and Mexico where we did see populists win and stocks sold off 6% when they reopened uh it'll be very interesting to see what happens on Sunday and then of course on July 4th in the UK when we've got maybe the uh the the election going the other way towards the labor party you know Jeffrey as as we think about the back half of this year I mean it really does come back to what the pathway of inflation looks like where employment situation holds up in the dead in the um in the fed's Dual mandate here all that considered it's really just trying to price in when we see some interest rate cuts for the fed you know how are you looking through their calculus and what they've been signaling thus far we all year have been penciling in about two rate cuts from the Fed so we were uh way behind when the market was thinking there was going to be six and now we're thinking that uh you know we're a big ahead of the game as the Market's pondering whether there'll be any at all all I still think we're going to see the moderation and inflation necessary to get the FED to those one or two rate Cuts later this year uh that should begin to weaken the dollar which is something that should help International investors or or us-based investors investing internationally finally see some of those gains translated back into Dollars Japan's stock market's up like 18% this year but in dollars only about 6% so getting that stabilization in the currency could be really important in the second half Jeffrey Klein toop Charles Schwab Chief Global investment strategist and managing director Jeffrey always a pleasure to grab some time with you thanks for having me |
eeCX1vApB7s | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eeCX1vApB7s | 2024-07-01 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Boeing to buy Spirit Aerosystems in $4.7 billion all-stock deal | now Boeing announcing it will buy Spirit Aeros systems in a $4.7 billion deal that's in an effort to improve quality and safety according to the company now this comes as us prosecutors are reportedly seeking a guilty plea from Boeing over allegedly misleading a Fed Federal regulator about the 737 Max planes that were involved in those two fatal crashes according to several reports for more on this we're joined by Mike Boyd Boyd Group International president we're also joined by Andy Pastor former Aerospace reporter for the Wall Street Journal thank you both so much for joining us this morning Mike I want to start with you to just get some context here for our viewers what do we know about this agreement from Boeing to buy the fuselage maker Spirit Aros systems here and what do we know about the potential impact that could have on Boeing in the stock price well I think it's it's a diversion number one Boeing is having a hard enough time handling their own owned production buying back spirit is a guarantee of nothing other than Boeing be managing it there has to be more than that again you know to charge Boeing with criminal malfeasance by the government is sort of like a a fire alarm company suing a building for having had a fire uh we're in a situation here where spirit is spirit and there's no guarantee that Boeing will be able to manage it any better than they can manage their own operations Andy I want to get your read in on the situation I mean especially as we're and have been tracking Spirit Aeros systems with direct correlation to this acquisition and what we were anticipating from Boeing and and Airbus as well which also announced that they were purchasing the division of spirit at least that has a little bit more manufacturing for its own aircraft so I I think the important thing to keep in mind is first of all this is a this is a reversion to some policies that Boeing had many years ago where all of this work would have been kept in house so they basically reversed course in that way but I'd like to talk a little bit about this potential Criminal um plea plea agreement it's really a slap on the wrist for Boeing it's a minuscule fine of about 250 million which of course is almost is a pittance for company that has spent billions and billions trying to um make changes and recoup from the the two crashes and it's important also to understand that the families and the vi the victims of the families of the victims and their lawyers have been demanding much harsher action from the from the justice department larger fines criminal um proceedings against individual Boeing Executives the reason that isn't happening and this hasn't been talked about very much the reason that isn't happening is because in the chaos the chaotic days of the end of the Trump Administration the agreement that Boeing signed with the justice department in 2021 essentially poisoned the well for any par strong U forceful action by the justice department in a in a very clear break from justice department practices over the years the justice department said it found no evidence specifically that in that senior Executives were involved in any of the potential fraud related to the to the to the max design the justice department almost never does that they simply don't charge individuals they don't explicitly say that there's no evidence against anyone um because someone walks in with a box of documents the day after of course the whole question becomes um becomes much different so I think that this is a slap on the wrist it's a almost a symbolic punishment Boeing has been immune to such symbolic punishments over the years but the reason I think that the justice department isn't being more forceful has a lot to do with the fact that they were locked into a certain legal position by the Trump Administration years ago in 2021 and they simply can't go back and essentially relitigate and try to create a a new criminal case from from those facts so Andy really quickly what does a potential Trump reelection mean for Boeing's future I don't think it has any effect at all this agreement if it comes to pass will be a done deal in a matter of um days or maybe a week or two the it'll have to be approved by a judge the families of the victims will complain vifer usly but by um the middle of the summer late in the the summer this will be a moot point the the Trump Administration won't be able to legally uh intervene and try to change any of these uh issues the Trump Administration if there is one will be able to make major decisions about regulating the company about overseeing its production about what happens on the production line and so on but in terms of this legal settlement relating to the previous crashes I don't think that U the Trump Administration will be involved whatsoever Mike what do you need to see from Boeing in order to believe that there's been a significant cultural shift internally at the company well I think after this deal comes down probably Calhoun will see the front door he should have been kicked out the door before I mean he is responsible for this hopefully we will see a Improvement at the FAA they're responsible for the oversight and they they failed before the max now they failed since the max but I think the big thing is there'll be a symbolic uh basically kicking him through the the goalpost of Boeing and getting rid of Calhoun who they replac him with I don't know but Boeing can't sit any longer like this acting like they're doing things when they're not going forward I think Boeing will have to have a totally different management and I do think this legal activity will probably Force the rubber snamp board to do something I want to stay with you here Mike uh obviously there's been a lot of discussion about any potential new CEO to come in at Boeing uh is there a name that you have not heard discussed that you think potentially has a chance of getting that seat or would be open to it given a so much volatility that that executive would be inheriting it's a very tight what they should hire is somebody who's very tight who know some engineering knows some of it but also knows how to re re re rebuild a company I mean the problem with Boeing is they they inherited people from McDonald Douglas who didn't know anything they inherit a whole bunch of people from GE which are which were really good at tearing companies down rather than building them so I think it's going to be a very hard thing to find somebody I think there's someone out there I don't have a name but it has to be somebody who wants to go in there and not be a rubber stamp and does understand that Boeing needs a whole new product line in five years they're going to be in a world of hurt because they haven't invested that's what we really need Mike Andy great to see you thanks so much for joining us this morning Mike Boyd Boyd Group International president and Andy Pastor who is the former Aerospace reporter for the Wall Street Journal great to see you |
kHkyAlWZ7Zw | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kHkyAlWZ7Zw | 2024-07-01 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Keith Gill faces securities fraud lawsuit | Keith Gil also got hit with a class action lawsuit Josh tell me what we know at this point about this lawsuit over alleged kind of pump and dumping of the gme stock yeah so it's a class action lawsuit from someone that says they were impacted by the quote pump and dump of GameStop and essentially it alleges things that you would think it would allege of Keith Gil over the last month and a half it alleges that he was involved in essentially potentially manipulating the market he knows that he has power over what GameStop stock or what he can do to GameStop stock and it goes through a long list it's a 40 page filing that goes through all the different times that Keith Gil has posted the market reaction and it does get again deeply into other sources citing that he might be able to manipulate the market this is something that people have been speculating about since Keith Gil reemerged was that eventually a filing like this or a lawsuit could come so interesting to see that come should know GameStop shares dropped about 7% in pre-market trading as this sort of started circulating and so I think the broader question as we come out of this is for one it's just a lawsuit filing for now right we don't know much more than that he has not publicly responded to it but will it take the meme crowd either away from Keith Gill or more toward Keith Gill as real action starts to come against him I think is the interesting question to watch moving forward is are people going to say oh waa I don't really know what's going on here I want to back away or are the hodlers really into supporting Keith Gil and do they sort of Pile in to support him in this effort I think is probably the most interesting thing to watch over the next couple days with these shares |
qt6fv5Mxc0w | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qt6fv5Mxc0w | 2024-07-01 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | The 3 trading themes to watch in the second half of 2024 | happy July 1st everyone our top story today stock futures Rising on the first trading day of the second half of the year the first trading day of the third quarter of this year and across Wall Street of course analysts are discussing the investment themes for the next six months we have our own three themes that we're watching for you today starting with big Tech here and an undeniable threat has been the excitement around AI led by Nvidia pushing the S&P 500 up 14% And the NASDAQ Composite up 18% in the first half of the Year here in studio with more we've got Yahoo finances Josh schaer hey Josh hey guys yes I pick Tech is sort of the one thing I'm watching going into the second half of year really specifically kind of the fundamental story of tech and the earnings right because yes we've talked at nauseum about this big Tech rally and how it's really been it's been all big Tech right you look at the S&P 500 this year more than two-thirds of the gains coming from essentially the six companies we always talk about I'm taking Tesla out of that mag 7 group and you're talking about companies like Nvidia Apple Amazon meta Etc and really it's been driven by earnings growth though and so to me the largest story I'm watching and a lot of strategists that I've talked to are watching going into the second half of the year is just does big Tech continue to outperform in earnings because that is a reason that they have driven the rally it's also a reason the S&P 500 came out of an earnings slump right we were in an earnings recession and essentially big Tech by itself carried it out you look at Q2 earnings coming up to kick us off to start the second half of the Year revisions we highlighted this in our morning newsletter this morning as our chart of the day you can see there this Shar from UBS the top six Tech Plus which is again those companies I was just naming are what is keeping revisions from falling for the second quarter so still right now you're looking at a largely just big Tech exceptionalism story do the others actually catch up do we get some earnings growth from the other sectors and the other companies I think is maybe the the largest looming fundamental story for the market rally absolutely it's it's a yes and right we need not only the AI rally to keep this market up but we also need to see perhaps a little bit of a broadening another stat to join your slew of stats there Josh that I saw this morning the top 10 companies are having a 35% growth on market cap but only a 23% growth in earnings and at what point does that start to be a concern that the earnings maybe aren't justifying the market caps for some of these big companies another thing guys that I am looking at for the second half of this year here is inflation and of course the rate cut cycle to come that investors are pricing in now two cuts that is despite the Federal Reserve and policy in Fede indicating only one cut to come for this year I think about what we heard from Stuart Kaiser last week when he was on our show just the idea that you have to really be looking at the jobs market and that is because we are starting to see jobless claims creeping higher just ever so slightly here what does that mean moving forward do we start to get a feeling of increasing volatility underneath the surface of some of the data that we're seeing that indicates a potential for that soft Landing to become a hard one or I was talking to Rick Newman this morning and he was saying inflation is at a place where if you just don't touch it if you don't look and close your eyes in a year will be at that two handle that the Federal Reserve is looking for so that's what I'm going to be looking at for this year both the jobs data in particular to indicate where the economy is heading and also of course those rate cuts to come for the fed well look no further to this week than for more of that that jobs data of course you're going to get that ADP private payrolls Wednesday and then of course we're going to be looking out to this Friday for that jobs report the employment situation from the BLS everybody's favorite statisticians out there and anyway one of the other major things that I'm keeping tabs on and that we all are in the second half of the Year we're watching the US election here and particularly after that first debate now without kind of going into and kind of reprising exactly what we heard during the first debate because there are potentially going to be more debates in the future we will see there I'm thinking back to what UBS is putting in their election watch right now and the scenarios that they're seeing playing out and they did say that the election is likely to trigger Market volatility they think investors should manage risks accordingly of course here but here's particularly what it could imply inequities the US consumer discretionary and renewable sectors could be vulnerable in the scenario of a republican sweep of both the house and Congress and well White House and Congress and then at the same time they think financials would stand to benefit in that scenario now you think about some of the other scenarios that they're continuing to look at and where they're kind of looking at some of the hedges potentially going forward uh in their own Investment Portfolio thesis one of the huge things that they continue to kind of lean on right now they think investors should hedge risks in sensitive stocks and sectors and they think that gold can act as an effective hedge against fears of geopolitical polarization inflation or excessive deficits too I mean the election Brad obviously is one thing that I it seems like a known at this point but the volatility that we just haven't had at all this year I think is kind of the key right when we SP if we're splitting this into first half second half the vix basically went nowhere for six months so if it goes somewhere in the second half of the year you would think at some point maybe we're going to get a little bit of volatility that will impact the market there Maddie going back to the inflation story a little bit it it's interesting to me doesn't it feel like we came back to where we started the year where everyone or most people are just kind of comfortable now you referencing like just just don't look at it and maybe it will just go down I feel like we went through that hard 3 months and now we're entering the second half of Year back with well inflation's just coming down it would just be I don't know how fast it's going to come down but it's just going to come down and I think if that isn't the case that's sort of an interesting risk the rally in and seeing the transition to from guests who used to really dig into which exact moment the Fed was going to choose to cut those same people now coming on our show and saying it doesn't really matter if it's September or December that is a huge shift in the commentary from these same people well just the fact that they're speaking specifically about September or December there's nothing that they're talking about with November and the election plays a role in that as well with a Fed that wants to seem or come off as apolitical as possible here historically that has been the case of course this is a different environment as they all are for the FED to navigate through here |
wWx9x04uVJ4 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wWx9x04uVJ4 | 2024-07-01 00:00:00 | Financial Freestyle with Ross Mac | The importance of saving for retirement and narrowing the wealth gap | 40% of all Americans run out of money in retirement if that system is broken everything breaks down we really are in a retirement crisis hello world it's your boy Ross smack and welcome to financial freestyle here on Yahoo finance now whether you're a professional on Wall Street a first-time investor or just someone looking to change their overall financial situation there's always a first step that you need to take and look no further because I'm I'm going to be speaking with some of the most influential voices in my universe and I'm going to be asking them about their path to economic prosperity and my guest today is none other than Derek Ferguson the chief administrative officer of TIAA and a former interm CEO of the Robin Hood Foundation he's also a warden Alum and a brock native Derek thanks so much for joining us man how you doing Ross I'm doing great man and thank you for having me man I you you know I've been following your career for a while and I'm just so proud of what you've been doing man what you do is so important impacting our community and especially impacting our young people so I commend you for what you're doing and definitely feel privileged to be here please man I uh you're so humble thank you for being here and you know obviously I know a lot about you and your name always proceeds any room I go in but just to the people that don't necessarily know you who would you say Derek Ferguson is well first and foremost you know I'm uh you know somebody who really cares about his family uh my my parents are from uh Virginia uh they grew up in the segregated South actually my mom and dad both went to the same High School my mom was the valid victorium Val Victorian in a really small African-American only school so they came to the to to New York and they settled into the Bronx and uh you know they always had this incredible aspiration for us uh neither one of of them graduated college but in my household like education was the like key thing was the most important thing was like education entrepreneurship faith and just EX I did really great in school uh you know graduated high school and I was 16 uh you know went to the Wharton School which which we know honestly showed up there I had no idea where I was that's you and wet 16 W middle of Philadelphia as a teenager Bronx Bronx Bourne I came with that I'm going take you way back I showed up on campus with bellbottom Lees with my name on the on the bottom of them so yeah I was all the way Brocks uh so uh no so it was just an incredible experience and again my comfort zone when I got in that environment was just numbers like I was always just good with numbers so once I got some numbers in front of me I was I was comfortable you know madej it in accounting and then went on to the Harvard Business School and uh so for me you know my focus really my journey has been around just one mastering everything I try to do uh but always keeping a mind set around like how am I impacting the world like I felt like I was so honored and privileged to be in the places I was in that I had to have impact I had to do something that was bigger than me that was that was something that would impact the community so that's really what what I would say has been a theme around my career going to an Ivy League at the age of 16 sounds insane but maintaining and being yourself out there with your with your pants and sounds remarkable so like let's Segway to where you are today right obviously you're at a very storyed franchise at Tia and coming from there you were or prior to there you were at Robin Hood found Foundation but what made you choose Tia well Tia was very it was interesting so I was at the Robin Hood Foundation uh West Moore was was our CEO um and he decided to go run for governor he won he's now governor of Maryland so um but you know our our mission there was basically solving poverty in New York city so it's just a Monumental task and and he was up for it and I was up for it and we just had you know incredibly to put your head down every day and trying to solve these problems of poverty you know you just learn a lot about you know what what's going right and what's going wrong in the world right so you know when when Wes leaves and goes to run for governor I met Tashan de brown Ducket the CEO of TIAA didn't know much about what Tia was doing knew they were were a retirement company and she went on to really describe for me like that we really are in a retirement crisis and the work we do at Tia really is part of the answer to that crisis so that again put me in that same motive like oh I can actually go solve a real problem that's going to impact people the world in general the you know the country in general but even more specifically whatever problem problem we're facing in general our communities African-American minority communities are facing them even worse so it was just a great opportunity to do something that would be very purposeful Mission driven but also very commercial wow one I also got to meet Tunda who I think is a huge heavy hitter on Wall Street I think she's one of the dopest CEOs and then on top of that a female CEO and I think she's just remarkable and so when you think about Tia right let's actually explain what Tia is and more importantly the overall underlying mission right because when you talk about solving a problem and retirement being a problem here in America like what is it over half of Americans aren't prepared for retirement and I think that even gets further exacerbated when you start thinking about you know minorities or or females Etc so like let's explain what Tia is yes and then maybe talk about kind of the overall mission there so going back over 100 years ago Andrew Carnegie founded Tia and it's structured as a nonprofit and what he was trying to solve for when he founded it was he was trying to solve for how can he help Educators uh retire with dignity so he saw these great Educators doing all this great work and then they would retire and not have enough so he he he literally went out to construct a a retirement plan that would allow uh you know Educators and and people that higher Ed Ed institutions to retire with with with enough money to to have enough money to retire so what he did is he created essentially this lifetime income product which is still our core product today so this is that product that you know it never goes away so you you you're going to earn x amount uh per per month for the rest of your life and you know you have that set amount of money so that product is what was introduced to a higher ed and at the time we were focused on primarily higher ed we ended up gaining you know 90% plus market share in the higher ed market so major universities Harvard Yale Etc all had TIAA retirement plans and we had this unique product which was this lifetime income product which was the you know the core of what we offered which allowed people to retire and know that they would have a streaming income for the rest of their life that's remarkable right I've obviously done a little work with Tia and you know one obviously coming into it they're focused on serving the people that serve others right but I know T when she got in there she said you know what let's be a little more laser focused on also retiring inequality can you talk about that yeah it's it's amazing that you know sitting here right now 2024 still 40% of all Americans run out of money in retirement right 53% of African-American households run out of money in retirement so we are looking at a system if that system is broken everything breaks down so if your parents you know can't run out of money in retirement then you have to start funding them because they don't have money so that's taking money out of out of what should be your uh you know your nest egg which you should be passing on your kids so it's just a generational deficit if we can't retire the right way wow so that's the you know that's like the problem we're facing but if you break it down there's a there's a lot of stats that were kind of Staggering 40% a lot of them going to be 40% so again 40% of people retire without enough money um you know you have 40% of young people uh 25 to 35 do not contribute to an employer plan wow right 40% of African-American households only 40% of African-American households uh contribute to a plan versus 63% of of white households so the these deficits are going to lead to a definite Gap in how people retire which is going to impact everything about that person so there's really three gaps that we think about we think about the access Gap so who has access to plans 57 million Americans do not have access to an employer plan right the access Gap the savings Gap so even when you have a plan like you know first thing I tell my kids whatever job you get join the retirement plan a 401k plan immediately many people don't join so in terms of the savings plan we want people to actually join and then escalate how much money they put away because something you talk about a lot the earlier you start the more you get the compounding of that money right so if you wait you can wait if you want because lot of people well I can't really afford it you can always afford to put this money away it's the best investment you're going to make ever hands down right because it's tax deferred Etc and then the last uh the um the last Gap um is the guarantee Gap so and this is that guaranteed lifetime income so if you uh 1975 about 90% 80% of employer employees sorry 80% of employe employees had to find benefit plans which gives you a lifetime income flow that's down to like 12% so so most people have these defined contribution plans where you get a lump sum sum of money that's distributed once you retire and that money is the money that can run out so as opposed to having 100% of your retirement money just being in assets you know we we we we believe and and we've seen through studies that people need a guaranteed income to ensure that they can pay all their bills have enough income flow in retirement the average American and probably a lot more aren't able to go to their parents and get that type of advice I know when I started work I had no idea how much I should be you know contributing to my 401k right I'm like I'll be rich at some point I I don't need that right the or better yet oh I need to have that extra money and start paying off student loans and so instead I say okay let me start educating people because access to information is the greatest barrier to helping break and you know solve and hopefully at some point you know narrowing that Gap when it comes to the wealth uh to the wealth cap but I when I speak on that I I I try to Define what my why is right what what would you say your why is my why is just that you know it at my core I I believe that if you work hard and you're as good as everybody else you should the results should be the same but you know what we're dealing with with in this country as you think about gaps right these wealth gaps is you know many people like my family like we're fighting from behind right and you can do everything right if you think about you can do everything right like you have people that work up they do you know wake up every morning they do 40 hours a week of like hard work you know what I mean like and and and they get to the and they're trying to just make ends meet and they get to the end of their career like yes I'm retiring this is great and they retire and they don't have enough money yeah you know what I mean they've done everything right by by the rules of the land like they've been great people they worked hard and they just do not have enough money to retire so you know those type of inequities and like what I consider just uh things that are not fair all those those things get my you know just get my energy up like I just feel like I've been put in such a position uh and been so fortunate to be in certain rooms and be in certain discussions that these are the things that get me excited about fighting for them because you know you're really just looking for equity and for people to get what they they deserve so that's what really keeps me going man I love I love love the story and why you have your why right but look guys don't go anywhere we're going to take a short break but stay with us and we'll be right back with you all right welcome back to financial freestyle I'm Ross smack here with none other than Derek Ferguson so I thought it was so important to hear your why because I'm a person that literally said I also want to find a better way to do service right I was working at a a fund right um a fund of funds and we were looking to invest in a specialty Finance company and one of the things I realized when I was like oh man this look like a great investment right it's uncorrelated to the market right they're probably making 20% IR in a down Market this is remarkable the thing is they owned a portfolio of cash advanced loan places and when you think about it where are those at right they're in you know traditionally underserved black and brown communities so I realized right the average person right black and brown people are traditionally underbanked so what are they doing right if they need money tomorrow and they don't get paid to two days they're going to go to a cash advance and they might end up paying 2 300% on that loan and so I realized at that moment that when it comes to truly narrowing the wealth Gap we have to narrow that exposure Gap and so that's one of the things that you know I figured out what my why was but talking about narrowing the wealth cap right I know you're big into kind of the overall crypto space so tell me a little bit about what you got going yeah I think um the way I viewed it and I have to give all credit to my son who's one of your peers Wharton peers one of our peers I guess and uh you know he was the first one that ever was talking to me about blockchain and you know this back when nobody else was doing it was investing in uh cryptocurrency and you know the way he described it to me was not as much about like the tokens or the you know the speculation or it was more about what this technology could do right and the fact that you know when I when I started thinking about how to solve some of these issues and how to really create economy you know you just had to look toward the next thing so what is the next thing so what is this blockchain technology and how could you use it to actually solve some problems to create some new economics so the way I think about the wealth Gap is that if we do everything the same and all of us like if we if we just say hey we're not doing this great with investing or whatever and we all catch up and we all do the same the wealth Gap stays the same in fact the dollar amount of the wealth Gap goes up the percentage amount if if the percentage amount stay the same you know even if that happened the dollar amount of the wealth cap goes up right so nothing changes so how do you change it how do you actually say when you say you want to close it that means you have to get some economics from somewhere you know different and I think when I when we think about our communities and you know my son was was working on this you know he was just like you know look we need a a way to actually democratize influence and monetize influence because if you think about the place where our community contributes a lot but only gets a portion of the value it's in influence and creation right it's like like you know we creating like if you think about whole new uh genres movements you know areas of the economy like you know just hip hop or you know just things that we have solely created uh and and we end up getting we end up giving away the 90% and keeping the 10% right so how do you control that better so you know just when you talk about how how technology can do that you can say imagine if you know transparency um and everyone seeing the same seeing the the the marketplace in it transparent democratized way right so for example if if I'm an influencer I'm I'm a Ross Mack and five different Financial firms want to access my following on my f my base and there five different offers right uh we can see in this system you're going to be able to see all five of these offers right and understand who's bidding lower who's bidding higher you're going to be able to see what what they're bidding on for somebody else so now everything is totally transparent and democratized because and and that will allow you to get the market a real market price right so if I could pull you over to one corner and offer you something you never know what the other five people are getting offered or what the other companies are offering then I'm going to win that battle of I got more value out of you than what the market would have would have would have allowed so this is a system really that democratized and makes a Marketplace out of influence and how influencers are able to monetize their value the second piece of it just just uh just to add to it is that it's a global market Place specifically connecting America with Africa at the time you know what they saw and they observed with the demographics was just the fast growing youth population in Africa and their influence and impact on all of the you areas of culture so music film Sports and you're now you see I remember when we first started this many years ago uh you know after I started learning more about it I predicted that 20 30% of the music charts was going to be music and that's what's happening right now because it's just so much creativity and so much good creativity but they really don't have a ready Marketplace so putting that Marketplace together with what we already have in in the US really creates new economy and and what I I love about it is that it's actually it's actually uh economics that don't exist now right because the the economics that exist are depressed in terms of the actual amounts that are being uh received by the influence so if you now increase that that's now a additional wealth that didn't exist in the system and that's truly closing a gap that's fascinating right and so wait I I don't think you said the name obviously I know the name but what's the name so yeah so the beaut is in the name the name of it is vibranium wow and you know if you think about what that what that what that name means you know it really represents like that thing we're going to protect that res we're not going to let anybody else have it like we're no longer going to give away our our natural resource we're going to protect it we're going to grow the value of it that you can't even own it that's remarkable and so one shout out to your son um I'm a little upset he didn't tell me more about crypto when we were at pen together but what I will say right is I always say this to myself what would I do if I can go back in time right in fact I have a Mac onomics wealth Summit in Chicago in a few weeks and I had I just put out some uh some content to you know to promote it and the funny thing I said was look if I can talk to my younger self if I can go back in time I would tell myself dude you're never getting tall enough you're never going Pro so pre stop focusing so much on the girls but instead let's learn a different skill set let's start thinking about investing so I I pose that question to you if you could talk to your younger self what would you say I'm getting close to 60 I'm 59 and you know to know what you know at 59 and be 30 would be like an amazing thing because I've learned so much more and and you know I think some of the are the things that they sound cliche but they become more meaningful after you actually experienced it it's really just of relationships oh you know what I mean like every single relationship I would say again one of the downsides of showing up to upan from the Bronx I was like I didn't really know how to interact with people I was awkward about that like when we got I played basketball too so when we got on basketball court I can interact with you we're good we speak the same language but you know we're just in like accounting class I'm kind of like I'm I'm I'm interacting with the people I'm more comfortable with so I probably didn't stretch myself as much as I should have in terms of building those relationships and for me vast difference from when I was in undergrad at upan and when I went to business school at Harvard cuz at that point I had learned that skill you know I had learned I had more years of experience of that skill and then forg great relationships so I would say relationships are key that's like that that's money in the bank uh the other thing for me and you know I try to tell my kids this but youth as youth is like you know my uh for for myself you know making like my faith the center of my life I just would have done it earlier I would say the third thing is um is about investing right so um you know I think as as with a lot of people you think you need like a lot of money accumulated to start investing so I think I was always like hey when I get this much money in bank then I'll start thinking about Investments and so on now I had you know very interested my dad growing up was always talking about different stocks and and he even was trading Commodities he was doing sophisticated stuff and this is someone you know who never went to college so I would see it right and you know we would talk about if he did well he'd tell me about it so I was definitely interested in it but I just was like I'm put $100 into something that doesn't feel like I should be doing it but now I know like even that $100 is better than zero I often say like the greatest equalizer is the exposure Gap right and the fact that you were exposed to the stock market at a young age the fact that your children are exposed to your wealth of knowledge that comes from generation to generation that's why we do it right and obviously here on financial freestyle the goal is to just help educate right CU so often financial literacy is taboo right we don't talk about it nearly enough and one of the things that I do is I pose a question to the audience right it's called dear Mack and I'm oppos it to you right we have snook 15 snook 15 said what's the first thing I should do to get it going to be financially successful so what advice would you have for Snook so the first thing is and a lot of people miss this is live on a budget understand how much money you're bringing in and how you're spending it and sometimes it's like you think you have it in your head or maybe you even care to have it in your head put it down on paper write it down get a spreadsheet you know uh Excel spreadsheet break down your budget and you have to save right so in your budget like yes put your money in your 401k and then you have to save something so like a lot of people well I can't afford this I you know I got to spend this money because I need to have this well you need to have that yeah and if you sacrifice that for a short amount of time it's going to be of great benefit to you so first have your budget and know what you're living on if you if you're living with zero savings just know it because a lot of people run around like I don't know why I don't have any money well you're spending it all you know what I mean let's do the math you just spent everything anyway so no no no do your budget and and no by budget then it's again join get get in your employer uh retirement plan and the third thing is start understanding Marketplace you know like you know the the Advent of tools like the Robin Hood app and shows like you your all all all all of what you share on the daily basis I watch you with your kids every every morning you know what I mean and a lot of other uh um other people sharing out at a at at a clip that we've never seen just start dipping your tone of water start simple you know what I mean start simple you know with with the ETFs and and and funds that are you know that are kind of doing the work for you and then as you learn more you know know learn more and grow and make sure you're balancing your risk but you got to start learn it start and the earlier you start the better the earlyer you start the better you got to control your inflows right you got to know your inflows and outflows people quite so often are spending money that they don't have right buying things we don't need with the money we don't have to impress people we don't like and so start with that budget start investing right I always say you got to pay your future self because when you get 50 60 you're going to be upset at your 20 30 year old self for just blowing that money so I love that and I love love everything thanks so much Mr D join us just congratulations again man great great show and I look forward to great thing look I want to thank my guy Dereck Ferguson for sharing this story with us and thank you everybody for joining us here on financial freestyle look I hope we gave you guys some very valuable insights and inspiration for your own wealth journey and acceleration I'm Ross back make sure that you come back next week cuz we got you covered we're going to build wealth together |
HWpUWp8Jo9U | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HWpUWp8Jo9U | 2024-07-01 00:00:00 | Opening Bid | How much can the presidential election impact stocks?: Opening Bid | [Music] welcome to the latest episode of Yahoo finances opening bid podcast I'm yaho finance's executive editor Brian sne now let's make some money and get a lot smarter here with me now is pesco's BBI uh new head of equity strategy Ben leler Ben congrats on the uh new position good to see you man yeah thanks for hanging me on uh so there's a lot to uh lot to talk about but I loved and I think this is a pretty a pretty good starting point I love this note that you sent over to the team ahead of this one you noted that the election cycle is likely a volatility event not a fundamental event talk to us a little bit about that because from the Vantage Point here in the US I know you're in the UK but from the vantage point in the US uh I think investors are are getting pretty worried about what they saw after that debate between uh former president Trump and current President Joe Biden and it's not yet reflect in the market that nervousness and there's a seems to be a at least to me a rising sense of uncertainty I think that's right um and you know we've just had this Gang Busters sort of first half rally right so I think we are set up for a little bit more volatility in the second half and one of the key ingredients for that could be this early start of the US presidential cycle um the US is 65% of global market cap so we can you know complain about the French election surprise the Indian election surprise the Mexican election surprise you know until we're blw in the face but the granddaddy here is you know November the 5th um and we're coming into this off after this big rally with volatility S&P volatility at you know nearly record lows some of do drums you know potentially um you know seasonality I think we we are set up for uh more volatility but I don't think investors should necessarily worry too much about that and I say this with a little bit of trepidation right because you know stock market forecasters are generally terrible at politics so that's the health warning but you know these are the two best known presidential candidates we've ever had and neither of them are dealing with arguably the biggest political issue out there or macro issue out there which is this yawning deficit and these Rising levels of of of of debt so and I think you know the one takeaway from the from the debate last week was the market has sort of made its peace with Donald Trump being the next president um you know we saw Market sort of edge up a little bit we didn't see that volatility so MH I say with a lot of trepidation that maybe this the volatility event rather than a fundamental event but you know time will tell Ben let me let me press you on that one you have a former president Donald Trump who oversaw people storming the capital so there's that among many other problems that he's facing various uh convictions you name it you have an a current president in Joe Biden who went on prime time TV and couldn't put a couple sentences together and there's real concern if he could just govern effectively for four more years if I'm an investor why not take my profits that I have today ahead of what appears to be just Calamity Calamity at the end of this year I think investors have being a little bit more simplistic than that I think investors are looking back to the first Trump presidency and thinking you know that was fairly Pro business I made a lot of money um maybe we're going to get you know a repeat of that and you know Joe Biden's the president today and you know the economy is going to grow 3% this quarter and inflation's come down and we're about to start cutting interest rates so not everybody is obviously feeling that but you know the market is on track for the best year since 1995 which is 40 years ago and we're on track have the greatest number of all-time highs you know since then so again I I think the glasses full not half empty I do think there's going to be more volatility um but I think markets will get through this I think the the the pillars of this bull market are not dependent on the politics and are a lot stronger I think than any one president if if I am nervous about the election what is my Play From a market perspective so my simplistic answer is the US is just so super sized and enormous that if the US doesn't work there are very very few places to hide I can come up with one or two maybe China's one but you know there are very few places to hide if you're if you're if you're very bearish on the US you know it's bonds or cash frankly um but I don't think you should be that bearish on the US I think you know the election is one of the ingredients of this wall of worry that I think the market is just going to keep climbing along with inflation along with recession fears along with you know Tech bubble I think we get through it all you know there's element of Truth in all of that but not enough I think to you know derail this this bull market but I think the other one is that this bull market I think should broaden from here it's been very much about the US exceptionalism Tech exceptionalism and um the I think the story for the second half is you know that will necessarily broaden out um and the the other assets which are more sensitive to rate cuts and a growth recovery which is basically the rest of the world I think should perform better so Europe Emerging Markets you know sectors you know real estate financials so I think it'll be I think Tech will be fine I think the US will be fine but I think other I think the leadership will broaden uh and I think that'll be very healthy Ben there's nowhere else to go so if the US is still on the uh cusp of Hell in the hand basket status let's wipe that away any overseas markets uh any emerging markets that investors who don't want to be in cash because it's trash as the old saying would go if they don't want to be in cash is there someone else somewhere else they could go all of the above quite frankly because you know they all have a lot in common um they performed very resiliently despite this sort of Super Dollar despite higher for longer us rates you know traditionally that would have been a catastrophe for all these other assets so they perform very well or or better resiliently so I think that is you know an interesting signal but the catalysts are still coming I think when the US starts cutting interest rates um which I think gives the green light for these other parts of the world to continue to cut interest rates we've had something like 70 rate Cuts so far this year versus only 16 uh rate hikes the US is right at the back end of that but this Global interest rate cycle um has started and I think will accelerate and the assets that are most sensitive to lower interest rates and stronger economies are in the rest of the world it's not big Tech big Tech is just delivering regardless I think it's Europe it's Emerging Markets this is where earnings are depressed this is where valuations are depressed this is where you've had literally 10 years if not more of underperformance so by definition the these markets are under owned and then the icing on the cake here and it goes back to what I was saying earlier the US just been so supersized and these other assets being very small even a little reallocation out of tech or the US goes a very very long way in some of these other assets so I i' be looking at Europe and i' be looking at Emerging Markets they're both tiny they're both very sensitive to Stronger growth lower interest rates and and just you know a little bit of um a little bit more investor interest I can remember a day Ben I imagine you could recall this too when the US wasn't working in terms of markets uh meaning that US Stocks weren't doing that well the first thought would be go to China it was a growth Market it was a hot Market that was always the place to go if the US wasn't working but but it whoever wins the White House in November they both have taken hawkish positions against China what's your Vibe on on the China market and is that dead money uh because of the the rhetoric that has come out of the White House that was the narrative coming into this year that China was uninvestable you were coming off two years of um you know declining you know Chinese stocks and of course you know when you hear that um the opposite tends to happen so CH has rebounded you know fairly strongly why because expectations were washed out because valuations you're on a single- digigit price earnings ratio less than half the US and interestingly you know China has at least as many tech stocks if not more than the US does uh so we're not comparing apples and oranges here and you know they have some policy flexibility and they're beginning to use that maybe not as aggressively as we would like um but you know China's never as bad as you think it is or neither is it as good so I think you know China's not uninvestable I think it's a very bottom-up Market it's a very big place um I I I think China's going to be fine as I say the fact that it's perceived as being uninvestable the fact that it's very under owned may make it a little bit more defensive and a little bit less correlated if you do think the US market comes off hard here which I don't think is the Bas case but if you are looking for places to hide China's one of those few places which is big enough less correlated and cheaper enough that you know may be an interesting place to hide if if if you are bearish on the US you mentioned uh rate cuts a moment ago when does that First Rate cut happen in the US based on your analysis and then when that rate cut happens do you think that is already priced into stocks here I think the right cut will start will come well first one will come in September but I think big picture I don't really care as long as the next move is down that I think is absolutely key I think the market is happy to wait um and that's been the story this year I mean as you know we came into this year expecting six or seven Cuts now we're expecting two and the Market's up 15% and you know annualizing at the strongest levels in 40 years so the Market's fine as long as the growth keeps delivering and the rate cuts are on the horizon and I'm absolutely sort of in that camp I think when that first cut does come though it's a big signaling event especially for the rest of the world and for all these sort of non-tech more interest rate sensitive assets which I think will all breathe a huge side of relief and will rally very strongly so I think the First Rate cut is a big Catalyst it will really release the pressure valve especially in the rest of the world for a lot of these and be the trigger if you like for this rally to begin to broaden out I mean this has been a real one-legged stool so far you know two-thirds of your S&P 500 return in the first half of the year were from the mag 7 that's great yeah yeah yeah for those new investors watching and and or listening to this podcast why are rate Cuts so important to stocks and and assets well two reasons so one I think it's a massive insurance policy for markets if if rate if if the rate cuts are coming I think you know the economy is going to stabilize maybe we're going to get better growth in the future um it takes recession risk I think or reduces recession risk and it boosters corporate earnings that's one the other one is I think it supports valuations and there are only two ways to make money in stocks you know higher earnings and higher valuations and I think rate Cuts help both of those that's why they're important all right Ben hang with hang with us we're going to go uh off for a quick break uh don't go anywhere we'll be right [Music] back so Ben uh thanks for hanging with us we were really uh talking about uh the impact to stocks from from interest rates or lower potential interest rates and really I would argue one of the biggest beneficiaries this year because of the potential for low rates has been Tech uh sure results have been very strong fundamentally Nvidia Microsoft Apple meta you name it all those results have been strong but I think that sector has really benefited from the prospect of lower rates but have we reached a point where where tech stocks some of these big tech stocks that have led the market are nearing a peak they just from a value ation perspective Ben I I'm sure you could appreciate this to see Nvidia priced at 22 times forward sales almost two times Microsoft most investors have never seen that type of valuation gap before listen I think Tech is absolutely fine this has been very fundamentally driven you took at that long-term price chart of Nvidia basically matches how earnings have uh have risen but I'm not going to argue that you're going to see the degree of performance going forward that you've just seen right Nvidia is you know close to being the biggest company in the world right now we really saying this is going to double again which is what it's done this year we really saying this is going to be a Six Trillion um you know valuation stock in you know a year's time you know I don't think so um I I think that I think that Tech earning growth story will slow from here um but I I think you know I think these valuations are very well supported but I don't necessarily think they're going to go higher which is why I think this bull market will broaden from here uh we we you talked about you know interest rate Cuts yes you know interest rate Cuts will help Tech but they're going to help everybody else a lot more um where valuations are a lot lower where they're much more interest rate where they're much more economically sensitive and you're getting a much more bang for your buck I think in those other sectors as interest rates come down as earnings firm up and as valuations potentially move higher so Tech is fine but I think the story for the second half of the year is going to be this delayed Broad of the bull market and this delayed rotation and changing leadership away from Tech I keep looking for anecdotal signs of of a of a peak in in Tech Ben look and we have calls now of Nvidia potentially pits are out there saying it's a potential 10 trillion doll market cap you had Nvidia CEO what month and a half ago signing a a woman's chest out there on a tour of the company's various products like to me this just seems like another bubble waiting to happen I mean does this feel like what happened in the late 1990s so I think the important thing to remember at the late 1990s was we were absolutely right on the tech adoption and the earning story what we got wrong was we just paid far too much money for it so you know Cisco is your Nvidia equivalent you know I think Cisco's sales are up seven seven times since then so you know the internet adoption story all delivered but we were paying 110 times price earnings ratio for Cisco at the peak back then and therefore Cisco share price has never recovered I think what's different this time time round is NVIDIA is less than half that valuation right now and the earning story is still you know delivering um so you know is this a bubble no not yet could it become one yeah absolutely and I so I think this rotation I think you do it for because I think of that Rel that sensitivity to rate cuts and these firming economies but I also think you do it for sort of risk mitigation purposes as well you know I believe in Tech but it's not you're not going to have the degree of leadership and outperformance in the second half that you had in the first half of this year I'd love to get your thoughts on this one I so we are we're a waking today that at roaring Kitty Keith Gill uh disclosed a 6.6% stake in chewy now chewy is a a real business growing sales making money they're opening vet clinics we've talked to the CEO Sumit sing numerous times this is a real company doing real things so I I mean I I get it but I can't help to think this is classic fear of missing out and I think a lot of you know the Market's rise is now luring in more retail investors who see what a Keith Gill is doing but also they feel like Ben they they've missed out on something really really big they probably missed out on VI for the video's move for the past year and a half I mean what's the impact of fomo or fear of missing out in the market here right now I think fomo is one of the two sort of technical supports you have for markets sort of here so again I think this is very fundamentally driven right earnings are are accelerating and rate cuts are coming but if you know we are overdue a pullback right we've had one pullback so far this year typically you see three a year your average intry year S&P 500 draw down is 14% we've seen nothing close to that um so you know we're going to get some volatility we're going to get a pullback so you know the two things that that help you there one we have record amounts of cash on the sidelines and I think this is maybe less about retail investors that have sort of been structurally long tech for a long time here I think it's more about everybody else um you know institutional investors who are structurally under have been structurally underweight Tech um we have what 6 and a half trillion in money market accounts right now sort of all-time high so you know I I I think there is this sort of bubbling fomo I don't think it's extreme yet but I think got a pull back in markets I think that money will come off the sidelines A and B if it's more Sinister if you know we've got a jobs report coming up on uh you know on Friday if if the economy starts to stumble here the FED can easily cut interest rates um you know pretty aggressively so I think those are the two sort of supports the markets but to your point fomo is absolutely one of them what is that trigger point Ben that that would pop some of that fomo is there a data point you're locking in on is it something something like a roaring Kitty going out there and buying some shares in chewy uh disclosing it disclosing a 6.6% 6.6% stake so I think the the fundamental risk is that we get an inflation resurgence inflation hasn't really been put back uh you know under control as I say you know markets are happy to wait for that first cut as long as they know it's coming markets are not ready for the FED cycle not being done so I think you know that's your one fundamental risk I think we're fine I think the economy's cooling I think there was a productivity boom going on but you know wouldn't be the first time I've been wrong um and I think the you're always right Ben you can't no you no you're always right I mean you're always right until you're proven wrong um and I think the second one is just you know we get this exuberance um we had a little bit of that you know before the pullback in um in April but I I think we're a long way from that um you know right now we you know we haven't seen big inflows into you know money market funds retail invest the sentiment you know is is not off the charts you know either um you know the vix is pretty low I mean I guess that's the one indicator which is sort of flashing yellow but fomo we're watching but it's it's not there yet where do you see there's been some chatter uh recently over the past few weeks I think it was ultimately triggered by by Tom Lee over fun Strat really making an aggressive call on the S&P 500 looking out over the next decade where do you see some of these major indexes going and and what are the drivers yeah so I think we're in the early Innings of a bull market and your typical bull market is you know 5 years 150% so what are we are 5 years 150% yeah that's your that's your typical average bull market so we're what a quarter of the way through that right now this may be a little bit a little bit less big just because our starting point was just much much higher you know we never had that recession which crushed earnings valuations never got crushed down to you know 11 12 times which is historically what you've seen so this may be a little bit you know a little bit smaller than that bull market but you know at this stage who cares right we are in these sort of Foothills of this uh the earnings recovery story has barely begun we might get to 10% earnings growth you know in this coming quarter which starts you know next week but um I think we have further to go and I think with the FED about to cut interest rates yeah valuations are high but you know 40% your index is these tech stocks which I think more than deserve these high valuations and I think lower you know lower rates will will support higher valuations for everybody else so you know I I guess so longer term I don't bet against the US early Innings of the bull market just this might be a slightly less big bull market than we've got used to historically so I did some quick math so I'm trying to define a bull market and so what five years if we're in the early Innings you think the S&P 500 could rise more than 100% over the next five years yeah that sounds about right to me I mean that's not too dramatic right that's earnings could easily do 15 compound out at 15% a year I think if uh the economy keeps uh you know chugging along and you got a little bit of multiple expansion which I think lower interest rates would justify um I think you know the mass Works put it that way you know the economy needs to play ball with that but the mass Works Ben I I think you just given me a case of fomo I don't know why I keep owning these CDs I gotta get the hell out of those things ouch what you know as you uh you know you think about the rest of the year what are some of your biggest fears about the market so overdue uh buback as I alluded to earlier we are going through the summer the sort of Summer do drums we are you know we do have the election coming up so I think again I think that's a volatility event that you buy that you don't sell that you know if you're bullish on markets that you're welcome because it lets you buy stocks cheaper but that you know easy for me to say but when you're in the middle of it a 5 10% draw down it obviously feels a bit a bit scarier than that uh I'm looking for those sort of tail risks that the FED isn't done which I don't think the market is pricing which would force me to you know reconsider my view but again I don't think that's happening and you know markets May well get ahead of themselves um which may well give you that you know sort of short-term draw down but again uncomfortable at the time but that's that's sort of an opportunity so that's what I'm watching but again I I I think this is a very fundamentally supported uh you know Market earnings are recovering and rate cuts are coming and if you don't believe me look at what's going on in the rest of the world where you know they've been going on for six months here in the remaining uh minute we have left Ben let me just go back maybe we could tie this in a knot here to to the election what president would be better for the market Biden or Trump don't the Market's already told you I told you last week it told you it's made its peace with Trump and it thinks Trump rightly or wrongly is is going to be better for this Market uh Ben uh ler ler really good good to see you uh congrats on that new position what do you what will exactly you be doing there what's uh what's your day-to-day look like I'll be doing you know Equity strategy around the world obviously bit of a focus on Emerging Markets given you know who we are but again given the the UA you know the US is uh a big gorilla out there I'll be doing a bit of everything all right well good to uh see over there uh bresco bbbi uh new head of equity strategy Ben ler really getting me excited about getting out of those CDs and getting into stocks potential S&P 500 up 100% over 5 years uh I think I need to call my money manager Ben ler good to see you thank you for joining us on this latest episode of opening bid nice Brian [Music] |
Zs295YwY10s | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zs295YwY10s | 2024-07-03 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | TikTok executive discusses possible ban and content creation for businesses | joining me now on Yahoo finance is Blake chandley Tik Tok president of global Business Solutions thank you so much for joining us today thanks for having us we have this amazing backdrop lots of announcements of course we have to start with some of the key ones for you um we've now got a date an appeals date um for the Tik Tok ban that was effectively put on the cards here after President Biden signed that bill into law about divesting ownership from bite dance from Chinese ownership or risk a ban talk about your reaction to that and and where you see it going so you it's it's now moving to litigation so I won't speak a lot about that I will say that um you we're confident in our position you we think it's a ban uh we think that from a legal perspective that the that the law is with us and we're looking forward to to to to the challeng it and from what I saw from when you f the first announcement of that of that law coming into place but then the brands didn't seem to have that same reaction they were in fact flooding to the the meeting that you had just a week after that announcement yeah I I think flooding is an interesting statement but the brands are excited I mean we're here in cam we're talking about advertising uh the enthusiasm is there it's amazing people are passionate uh they're excited and they're really supportive of Tik Tok which is great and so I want to ask you about another announcement here your Symphony digital avatars talk about the goal of this and how you see that scaling the business for creators and advertisers as well all right great and thanks for letting me talk about this we're really excited around avatars we think it's a huge step forward in the creative process so we've been working with creators and with brands for a while now to make sure that we're building something that really meets their needs right there's a lot of concerns about the role of avatars versus cre the creative community and and the position we're taking is we want to amplify their voice and and a great example of that is you know today a Creator when they create a piece of content um they create a single piece of content and they they they put that up on the platforms and they you know look and see what happens and they go create ner piece of content what we've we designed avatars to do is to allow them to create a piece of content and then scale that globally so we can scale to 30 languages today so you could create it in Spanish or in English and you can scale it to 30 languages which immediately gives our creator Community the ability to reach audiences they've never been able to reach before um and and similar in the on the graphical side of things they can create different backgrounds they can do different things so the idea is how do we enable and Empower our creator community and it's interesting because people can either have a custom avatar or use a stock one what's the reaction been from people sort of seeing themselves you know speaking other language is an avatar I can imagine that's disconcerting but I mean it's also really fascinating they love it they love it the the the reception has been really really positive from brands from creators users are showing a lot of interest and enthusiasm Beyond it so we're really excited about it and so when you look at where Partnerships and collaborations go now with partners and creators what does that look like for you say over the next 5 years yeah I think I think there's a lot that's going to change in the space over the next 5 years we're really excited about it whether it be ecosystem Partners like the Adobe launch we made today which is we're allowing our music library now to be part of their Creative Suite which is a great great thing for creators and for Brands alike all the way through to different ecosystem partners that are yet to come about AI is changing the game for our community the advertising community in general and and we're all really really excited about it and so then when you think about really making the most of viral moment something that of course Tik Tok is known for when you have something like the Olympics or or some some random Trend that just seems to pop off out of no where what are some of the tools and resources that some of these Brands can use to capitalize on that moment so Tik Tok is known for the cultural moments is driving culture in many ways whether it be in sports or whether it be in Beauty whatever it might be where where there are these moments that happen that go viral to your point right what we're doing is enabling Brands through a variety of different products to allow them to identify VI virality very quickly whether it's with their brands or outside of it and then align themselves with it so we have a series of products you know one's called pulse which allows Brands to literally have their content appear right next to the most viral content on Tik Tok U doing it within the needs and have the safety and the adjacency challenges that they have sometimes they want to make sure they're with the right content at the right time the Right audience and that's what we're really building for them and so then when you're looking at some of these these um targeted ads if you're a newcomer you're trying to get your voice heard and there's this sea of well-known established Brands what is there for the little guy coming in here trying to make a splash well I will tell you Tik Tok has an amazing role within small businesses so in the US for example alone we have 7even million small businesses that use the platform to help build their business to build their brands to reach audiences they can't reach elsewhere because it really democrati Tik Tok is democratizing advertising in that sense and so small businesses can create amazing content that goes viral we've all heard the stories of a small local business that all of a sudden you know goes from doing $50,000 a year to 16 million a year um or a deli there's a great great example is a deli I was on my way out here actually and I was coming from New York City and I was in a a cab heading to the airport at JFK and we drove by and there was this long line I but there were 100 people outside this Deli and I said what's going on there he goes oh that's the Tik Tock Deli randomly that's the Tik Tock Deli right and this was an amazing sandwich shop that had gone viral on the platform and now people are swarming there from all over the country and so that can be a lot for for a small brand what sort of support do you then offer when it comes to scaling up if there's someone who has perhaps really no background other than like your small your small business yeah well there are a series of tools that are self- serve tools as well as we have teams that are helping small businesses whether it's finding the right creators to work with or you know having the right voice on the platform and so when you think about different Generations people think of Tik Tok primarily as as somewhere that gen Z likes to go but how do you get more people more Generations into it so that they don't feel like you know they're they're too old for it fun fact the average user on Tik Tok is over 30 years old right and so that's that's a reflection of the kind of content that's that's on the platform form now it went from in early days it went from really kind of lips syncing and dancing which was very akin to the younger generation to the content that's there now around book talk or Edy talk or clean Talk which is a phenomenon a community on the platform who loves to clean their homes so there's something for everybody all generations are on it now and do you ever see at one point Tik Tok becoming an everything app especially when you think of what you see with like live shopping and and especially when you're introducing things like avatars that allow you to be more flexible yeah I think do a lot of things in that area now I think that Tik tok's become an important part of people's lives but it's important to know that it's an entertainment platform today first and foremost right versus a social platform now we're adding things like shopping into it and live capabilities inside of Tik Tok as well which is an important part of the user experience so we'll continue to build features and functionality and innovate to make it as important as people want in their lives and something that's interesting and people may not be fully aware of it just how much of their news they get from Tik Tok in fact few research found that the share of people going to Tik Tok for their news has doubled since 2020 to about 43% especially in an election year how do you harness a lot of the attention that you're going to get from news with some of these Brands and creators so I think it's I think news is an interesting one you bring up a great Point that's good knowledge um increasingly especially gen Z is finding more and more of their news on the platform and so you know as we think around how do we build the right kind of policies governance around that it's really it's really really important and then Brands want to know where their where their brands are appearing in the platform and some of them want to be around some types of content they don't want to be around other pieces of content so we give them the tools to select that |
_b6HBDRfrqE | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_b6HBDRfrqE | 2024-07-03 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Tiptop leverages 'bank accounts' Americans didn't know they had | there's a real reluctance to commit to Big discretionary purchases as more Americans are piling on credit card debt and our next guest is looking to make purchases more affordable by allowing sellers to trade in an item that they own to reduce the cost of new purchase right at checkout joining me now to weigh in on the launch is Bastion Leman who is tiptop founder and CEO Bastion great to have you here with us all right first just just how would this work in practice what goes into the verification process and kind of understanding what type of value someone would get for what they're trading in in order to put that value towards a future purchase good morning uh and thanks for having me um Let me let me Dive Right In you just mentioned it tiptop is this incredibly uh exciting product that we're launching today it's it's a new way to pay for things maybe a new way to pay for things since the credit card what we do is we allow you to trade in things you no longer need when you like to buy something new right at the checkout and that that is uh really what is the key messaging piece here um if you're at the checkout right when you want to buy something we allow you to offset the cost of that new product by trading something in and the whole process takes a couple of seconds what's this limited to I mean can I trade in old shoes in order to get some new ones like where are you finding some some traction right now early on well uh your your old shoes May probably be better off at the Goodwill um but I'll tell you what the average US household has around $2,500 wors of goods that can be traded in and that we match with our catalog there's around 50,000 products and growing that we have in our catalog and that accounts to around $280 billion worth of goods in US households so I think about it as a bank account that American customers don't know they have and we give them access to it what is the strategy here for tiptop how does tiptop see it's Revenue model it's profit model even going forward we we we want to offer this incredible superpower um to the customers and we won't charge them we charge a modest fee to the merchants that participate and that integrate tiptop on the checkout and ultimately we hope that there is enough margin uh in the products that we're purchasing from customers and that we ultimately going to resell certainly this is a tough capital or tough Capital environment how well funded is tiptop uh and and how do you kind of look across the entire landscape and say where you're going to deploy this Capital to make sure that you can get to that next growth phase as well we're we're very small team we're only around 14 people uh very engineering heavy and we're focusing right now exclusively on the customer experience we we want to get something out there and we believe we did get something out there that customers love and that customers love to use um you know when you launch a company and when you run a startup your your biggest job really is to test a bunch of hypotheses in in in really fast order so we're extremely excited about getting the product into customers hands and hopefully it means that we now have to shift our Focus to scaling now a few of us uh have built Postmates before um and we had to scale in uh a market that was totally foreign to us extremely fast so we feel well equipped uh for the scaling challenge ahead |
ZFXja8f4TuU | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZFXja8f4TuU | 2024-06-28 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Paris Olympics 2024: The rising threat of cyberattacks | 2024 Summer Olympic Games in Paris quickly approaching according to various estimates more than 15 million visitors are expected during the event with all this attention also comes of course The Unwanted eye of cyber criminals the Olympics have long been a Target to cyber attacks the Tokyo games seeing a staggering 450 million cyber threats two and a half times the number of attacks seen during the London Olympic Games so what is in store for this year in Paris arctic wolf CEO and president pres Nick Schneider joining us now to discuss Nick thanks for joining us actually um before we get into that I actually was interested since we have it you have such an unique Insight here um kind of broadly higher level Nick you know we see signs that of course the economy could be cooling against that backdrop Nick I'm just curious in your industry what is spending like on security right now what is demand Nick is it is it strong yeah first of all thanks for having me um I think cyber security is an industry uh that you know unfortunately is uh constantly in high demand I think the threat actors are becoming more sophisticated I think there are new opportunities you know particular AI for those threat actors to uh leverage new techniques with organizations uh so the demand environment is is quite high and I think you're seeing that uh through the resiliency of the cyber security Market you know in the public markets itself all right Nick let's skip ahead now to to an event that I'm sure is on your industry's radar that is the Olympics as we're mentioning um the games often uh uh the the receiving and the target of cyber tax I'm curious Nick do you expect that same pattern to hold this year yeah I think it will um you know you have an event where there's broad global scale um millions of people are attending you know thousands of vendors are being used you know throughout the event over a you know relatively short period of time which just presents an enormous opportunity for supply chain attacks uh and especially you know as much as those organizations would you know attempt to prepare they asked to do a lot in a in a relatively short amount of time and a lot of these organizations are steing up you know standing up operations uh in a location or uh in an in a type of event that they're not used to uh which just prevents an opportunity for the Bad actors and I think on top of that uh with the global stage some of the geopolitical tensions uh will come across you know more notably which is an opportunity again for Bad actors and then you know I suspect we're going to see uh some an increased use of of AI kind of throughout the games but both in the in the way in which they're kind of presented but also the way in which uh they're produced uh and that itself will also present a new opportunity I think for Bad actors throughout you know this Olympic Games when you mentioned Bad actors Nick who are we talking about there I are we talking about you know is it criminal gangs is it Rogue States all the above all of the above uh and I think especially in an event of the scale of this magnitude and especially since it involves um such a you know broad set of organizations or broad set of you know countries um you're going to see a mix of kind of all of the above throughout you know the event itself and when we talk about the the attacks themselves Nick what do they look like what what form do they take yeah they'll they'll take all of the standard you know forms of attack right so I think folks will be attacking again the supply chains I think uh the Bad actors will be looking for vulnerabilities I do think we'll probably see some nation state activity uh and that will get know into these environments through some of the less sophisticated means but also through you know more sophisticated means and and like I mentioned earlier I think AI presents a new opportunity for the Bad actors and a new Vector even of attack uh as an attack surface in itself uh and that all provides on the context of this large Global stage a massive opportunity for the Bad actors and it just means that those that are participating in the games or a part of the you know the game's production need to really remain Vigilant uh and do what is necessary to become you know protected as an organization you mentioned AI there ex so you would expect perhaps Bad actors use use AI on the other hand though would you expect cyber security officials to also integrate um deploy AI defensively yeah I think we'll see U uh AI being used in both directions so the good news is it can be used you know defensively uh the bad news is it can be used uh offensively um and you know I think there's a healthy balance there I I I think right now just to sear breadth of the ability to use AI in a in a negative you know fashion um probably slightly outweighs the benefits of the of the proactive you know response with regards to AI but that doesn't discount you know all of The Blocking and tackling that organizations can do um that is more standard you know cyber security hygiene uh that could really help them you know prevent anything significant Nick ter uh terrific discussion and a really interesting uh topic thanks so much for taking the time to chat today appreciate it thank you |
4g3G9anfGR4 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4g3G9anfGR4 | 2024-06-28 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Biggest risks to markets in the second half of the year | JP Morgan releasing its new 2024 midyear Outlook today here to help break it all down as yaho finances Josh Sher I've alluded to this a couple of times because it w Marco kovich um one of the few Bears who remains on Wall Street Marco holds a 4200 call on the S&P 500 which be over 20% fall from where we are now they haven't moved their target which I think is notable and a lot of times I think you do see this jie where you have a very low Target I don't think he's that tempted to chase exactly where the Market's going to fall so like 4200 to me is a little bit arbitrary when it comes to that but essentially JPM saying here similar things they've been saying since the start of the year which is you have frothy sentiment you have valuations that are high they don't feel great about that sort of dynamic in the market right now and so I kind of took that note and then I broadened it out to what other strategists are saying to and kind kind of created three risks that people are watching heading into the second half of the year cuz we kind of went up and more or less a straight line to start the year and one thing that a lot of folks are talking about right now is the labor market and I think that's going to be a continued Focus going into the second half of the year and specifically if we see any kind of a downturn and that goes with labor market downturn would equal economic weakness City's economics team still has a recession call Scott croner mentioned that in his note today he's their Equity strategist but he said well if my team's still sitting on a recession call maybe we do get a pullback in stocks their call is 5600 on the S&P but but at some point maybe that there's a little bit of a push pull there when it comes to the labor market and then as far as sentiment goes City uses this thing called the levic index to look at whether we're in a period of euphoria or a period of panic when it comes to sort of stock market um different aspects of the market you can see here we just barely got into Euphoria over the last couple months and so you could call sentiment frothy but kind of one of the other takeaways from this chart is you can see how long sentiment can be frothy if you look at the 2000s period there we were well above that light blue line for a long time we were above there for a little bit it's still in the bounds it looks like in that chart it's a little bit above it if we really zoomed in but yes it's not out of control and and by the way that that index named for late strategist Tobias lekovich who was a wonderful person to talk to about the markets um and it's great that they have that index that is named for him a final thing Josh yes we were talking about pullbacks I think it's just important to understand that we haven't had a real pullback yet this year we had a 5% pullback in April but when you look longterm the average is closer to about 14% over the last 40 years for the S&P 500 Keith learner over at truus highlighted this a while back and we've sort of just been updating that chart and I think the takeaway here being you almost should expect more of a pullback at some point it wouldn't be abnormal at all the way the stock market went up actually for the first 6 months this year is probably more AB normal and so as you think about things you guys have been talking about today with the election and potential volatility maybe coming into the market remember the vix is near historic lows AR Jer blicker talks about it most days and it hasn't moved all that much so if that starts to play in a little bit more maybe that's when you finally see stocks stop going up seemingly every day yeah you know what I liked about this note too they talked about the election and the debate obviously they published before the debate they and they told their clients you know that it could really clarify talking about the debate the key policy platforms the candidates I don't I don't know policy it clarifies something I guesss visuals I don't know policy maybe they'll revisit that one Joshua thank you appreciate that |
iCyCIySuPwc | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iCyCIySuPwc | 2024-06-28 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Earnings expectations are 'too rosy,' but recession is unlikely | as the first half comes to a close the S&P 500 is on a tear it's up about 15% on the year already driven by largely by big Tech and AI our next guest thinks this bull market still has room to run from more we're bringing in Ed kle chief us strategist at Ned Davis research Ed it's good to see you so it sounds like what you're saying Ed here is listen if the economy is decent and earnings are decent let's not overthink it that the good times can continue yeah that's a great summary let let's not get too caught up in the minutia uh earnings growth is going to be pretty solid this year we're getting quarter on quarter acceleration and growth it's probably give me some downside revisions just because second half estimates are a little bit Rosy but overall good earnings growth and while the economy is slowing the chances of a of recession over the near term are pretty low and that's a recipe for the FED to likely be able to cut probably once in the second half of the year and so a slow easing cycle decent earnings growth um and moderate uh and falling inflation that's a pretty good backdrop you know Ed um you might have seen JP Morgans Marco kovich came out with a note today and said he thinks the S&P 500 is going to fall to 4200 by Year's End among other things he thinks that the market is pricing and too optimistic an outlook for a broadening of earnings growth uh Beyond Tech Mega cap what do you think of that scenario well I I think a 4200 price Target implies uh a recession's coming you normally don't get that kind of decline unless you're going into a recession so uh it's not just a hey earnings growth may not be as good as we think that that's really saying there's some some really bad news coming down the pike that's not really what what we think uh is probably going to happen um now I mentioned earlier you earnings expectations second half probably a little bit too Rosy consensus estimates about 20% for Q3 and Q4 versus the previous year it's probably more like High um you know High single digits to low double digits so there'll be some down downward revisions but I think if you want to talk about risks probably the bigger risk is that after such a good first half of the year A lot of people are are in the market so a little bit of bad news could cause a pullback but we'd be looking for a pullback to maybe a a a small correction not necessarily a bare market and and another you know we talked variables for for investors to consider another one I want your your take on is just valuation when you when you look at where we're at right now at the market Ed how does valuation Look to You does you know attractive extended how would you characterize it yeah stocks are are a little bit stretched if you were to look at the trailing PE for the S&P 500 it's you know above um its long-term average not hugely so you know like to say if it's more than two standard deviations um that's like the top 5% uh of observations that's when it becomes like a real Front Burner issue usually it's when earnings growth rolls over that's when when these kind of moderately elevated valuations become a bigger issue I think where where I'm more focused for the second half of the year is relative valuations that is stocks versus bonds we've entered a regime where if bond yields uh Spike then we saw that for example last year uh tenure got up to 5% and we got a 10% decline in the S&P 500 pretty quickly I think that's the bigger risk not our base case but if let's say inflation does remain sticky and you get inflation expectations get out of hand and interest rates start to rise again that's when investors may say hey I'm getting better deal in the bond market so let's focus there so that that's I think where the valuation risks are um what do you think is going to propel stocks higher in this second half of the year is it going to continue to be Tech Mega caps is it going to be other areas that are going to start to play more catchup yeah so as of right now we're overweight uh Tech we're overweight growth so that's kind of more more of the same and and more broadly if you're getting a a modest slowdown in economic growth the stocks that tend to do well are growth stocks because they don't need the economy to do very well to grow their earnings they're not like an industrial company or materials or energy that really lever to the economy uh so that's where we are at the moment now I think if if we do get into a little bit of a of a pullback or even closer to correction territory then you want to get defensive that's where you utilties Staples um uh healthc care and Telecom those tend to do best again that's not where we are at the moment but if people are thinking along those terms maybe now is the time to do a little bit of research to see you know which sectors and which stocks you want to focus on and you know I can't let you get out of here talking about politics had that big debate last night um and I'm just curious how are you thinking about this election just as a as a market strategist how you thinking through it yeah so the way I think about it is election year rallies often start when it becomes clear who the winner is going to be like in 1996 it's very clear Clinton was going to get reelected had two very small pullbacks first half the year and the market ripped higher the second half' 04 different situation Bush uh Carri very close it wasn't until election night that it became clear uh Bush was going to win and then after that the market ripped higher the last couple months of the year so we were thinking this is gon to be a very close election probably you know still is but you know if momentum starts to move towards Trump's Direction because of Biden's performance maybe that year uh rally starts a little bit earlier course had a good start to the year second best first half of election year since 1928 so we've already priced in some good news but maybe some of that general election uncertainty uh dissipates uh if it becomes clear who the winner is going to be we shall see I'm not holding my breath Ed thanks a lot appreciate it |
BstN0reX0Jg | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BstN0reX0Jg | 2024-06-30 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Billionaires are investing in space. Will they make a profit? | Elon Musk Jeff Bezos and Richard Branson these are the billionaires leading the Space Race setting lofty goals for themselves and the future of space travel investors are buying in so far this year the space industry is getting $6.5 billion dollar in PE investment that's according to space capital and this week Bloomberg reported that SpaceX is selling shares that value the company at around $210 billion but our next guest says it take generations for the Investments to pay off even if they ever do joining us now to discuss we've got Derek P pittz the Franklin institute's Chief astronomer Derek it's great to have you here thanks so much for being here with us I I'm interested in your take just on billionaire investment in this space in general given that you are a space expert yourself how do you how do you feel about it well it's really exciting that they're pouring all this cash into expanding our capability to reach low earth orbit Beyond uh with organizations other than the National Space organizations like NASA or Rose Cosmos of Russia or any of the others uh you know Ariana spas of France but the issue here is that how is it that they're going to be able to actually generate some income out of this because right now the billions that they're pouring in are going towards building the necessary infrastructure to do the work that has to be done off planet in space and that is tremendously difficult it has very high risk it's going to cost a lot of money and it's going to take a long time to get to a point where you actually have a process that's turning product around that can then generate some positive revenue for you so Derek for investors there there are looking to see some sort of return and maybe in a more timely fashion I guess what do you think in terms of that angle or the Catalyst of what is going to change here for investors over the coming months it's probably too short of a time frame here coming years what is that then what do those Investments maybe more accurately look like well I think those those those Investments have to be looking toward uh what are the practical technologies that emerge from the development of all the technologies that are being developed to actually build this space infrastructure I mean what kinds of Technologies coming out of this can be used here on Earth and driving that kind of development actually is important and can work because as those Technologies are built for use in Space the applic that they can have on Earth can actually develop an Avenue in which those uh Investments actually begin to pay off sometime sooner than two or three generations from now throughout the course of your career Derek have you seen the kind of combination of the private and public sector have different impacts in terms of how much technological growth there is based on where the investment is coming from versus in each of those well the interesting thing is that on the public side the money that's invested by governments does then turn into technology sharing for you know the rest of the general public or for that Nation because in terms of you know for NASA at least anyway techn technology sharing is part and parcel of the investment that our government is making in developing our national space program but for Private Industry what happens on the other side is they now have proprietary right to all of the technology that they develop so in one sense we have easier access to those Technologies through the private through the public SE sector the National Space organizations than we do through the private sector |
KlCiGKyYBTw | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KlCiGKyYBTw | 2024-06-29 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Understanding net worth and why it's important | [Music] the media net worth for families in the US was a little bit over $192,000 according to the Federal Reserve but what exactly is net worth and why is it important so to break it down for us we've got Yahoo finances very own Molly Morehead here with us I mean what is it at the end of the day well literally it is what you own minus what you owe and the reason it matters is it's it's a good gauge of where you are financially your Financial Health uh it's like a personal economic indicator of how you're doing okay so we're looking at the calculation here on the screen I mean what else is taken into account when we think about what you own versus what you owe here yeah so what you own are your assets and uh it's you're you're going to add up all your um balances in your bank accounts your balances in your retirement or investment accounts if you own real property like a home all of that uh minus your debt so if you have student loans if you have a mortgage anything you owe money on is subtracted from the total of your assets and that gives you a number that is generally speaking lower the younger you are might even be negative if you graduate college and you've got a bunch of student debt um but then over time the hope would be as your salary increases your um Investments grow that it will it will incre the number of your net worth will increase so once you calculate it how do you track your net worth over time yeah um so your financial adviser is a great resource here they um they can kind of give you that big picture look and they'll um show you how you're doing toward bringing up your net worth and then you know your bank or your if you have a a Fidelity or Vanguard account they often can let you uh link all your accounts plug in all your numbers and it'll show it to you or you can do uh you know the old school spreadsheet and it really is a good idea to track it because I think it can be motivating so is and I'm not staying track it every week but a couple times a year you see that you know that debt number come down as you're paying off um you know a credit card or whatever and the money you're putting in savings is growing |
nz-FdJQyUf4 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nz-FdJQyUf4 | 2024-06-28 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | In the Trump-Biden race, expect more 'surprises' down the line | I don't walk as easy as I used to I don't speak as smoothly as I used to I don't de debate as well as I used to but I know what I do know I know how to tell the truth joining us now Yahoo finances Rick nman where was that guy last night that's exactly what I'm wondering so what what medication did he take that instantly M fixed his voice you know 12 hours later I don't know um I have no idea what to say about this I mean uh that is not the guy we saw last night most of the people who saw the debate last night are not going to see Biden In that clip um and we basically have two or three Joe bidens running for president I guess I I get I mean the other thing is the the viewership of the debate last night was down considerably but that's not how people watch things anymore right they watch viral moments and we all watched earlier the clip that went viral which was the the president's comments about he just blanked out I mean he he just lost his train of thought completely which happens to all of us well all of us don't run for president exactly exactly well and that wasn't his only moment like that during the night that was the one that has just been sort of spread most virally right so um what could change the outl look here I mean is you know is is Biden sunk uh I mean you heard uh liby cantril saying and I think that's astute that Biden is in this race he he he he will be the last person who thinks he needs to drop out and he certainly doesn't doesn't feel that way now so the we were before this debate we were having a lot of discussion like watch for surprises in this election right well we got we got kind of a surprise which some people say it's not surprising but uh Biden totally crashed and underperformed last night obviously could we have any more surprises the answer is yes so Donald Trump gets sentenced on January 11th for 34 felon ju sorry what did I say January sorry July uh July 11th uh 34 felony convictions there's a good chance he will get some punishment he's probably not going to get go ahead you're fine the time served he could get home detention which creates The Surreal uh scenario that uh he may be accepting the Republican nomination remotely on a zoom call because he's not allowed to leave his home in Florida um we're going to get this Supreme Court decision next week on whether Trump is immune in one of those three other uh trials he's facing small possibility that um that that could clear the way for that trial to begin probably not end but small chance that trial could start and I mean again these guys are both old um there are still other surprises that could happen so it's uh until the election day itself it is always possible that the definitive thing that will decide the outcome here has not yet happened what do you think Rick I mean there's a lot of talk right now you know is actually Biden going to be the candidate I I know we just spoke to Libby canro and she's right you've heard from Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton but I mean I'm still waiting to get line of signing the big donors the big names who write the checks I think that's going to be really interesting as that kind of leaks out I'm still waiting to see do Democratic Congressman go public with worries I mean if you would have placed the odds How likely is it do you think seriously that that Biden is not the candidate and that it is going to be Camala Harris or Gavin Newsome uh Libby in her note today said it probably went up from about 10% to 20% I think he could push it a little higher um even higher than 20% you could uh yeah you could say onethird I guess but if it doesn't happen soon it is not going to happen voluntarily you know if if there's a health emergency that that's a different story but Biden controls his delegates as Libby pointed out they're not up for grabs he won those delegates in primary elections and they're his delegates to dispense with as he chooses um so who can who can persuade B Biden to to withdraw and who might do it his wife uh he's close with his sister he's got a few family members and I think that's about it he's got you know he's got five super close friends and political visors he's had for decades if all of them got together and collectively said you know we have to work we're performing an intervention here um then maybe that would that would get it done suggest Joe Biden has that much influence you think yeah yeah yeah oh yeah and the other thing is if he did step down and somebody else would run one of the people you mentioned the the Democratic party would want a sure thing and there's nobody else out there that's another problem I mean it's not the Biden is a sure thing either yeah so you know John Lyndon Johnson withdrew uh earlier in the year in 1968 and Hubert Humphrey was the vice president so Hubert Humphrey was stepped in right in his candidate you assume that Camala Harris would play that role except I think there would be instant opposition to her you'd have immediate jockeying uh from other people super ambitious people um that we've been going through the list all day but uh Gavin Nome California governor Pete Budaj you know in the in the cabinet Gina Rondo already in the cabinet these guys are already in the inside the Beltway they would be vying you know they would suddenly be going after after Biden's delegates um and how does that shake out I mean I mean there's a method there's a procedure for which to make it happen it would just be ugly and then you You' probably have all this infighting in the meanwhile which might be even worse than a Joe Biden you know the Democrats at a civil war three or four months before the election is a worse look than Biden put on last night so this late in the game there are not very many uh reasonable options for Democrats thanks Rick by the way the The Comeback theme is already showing up among the HM Democrats |
dV1F8_pjAOw | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dV1F8_pjAOw | 2024-06-30 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | NASA astronauts talk space life challenges, data collection | the International Space Station orbits at an altitude on average of about 250 mil from Earth at around 17,500 mph and I get to speak to two astronauts live from the ISS right now we have Janette EPs and Tracy Dyson they are NASA astronauts and flight Engineers for Expedition 71 this is Brad Smith with Yahoo finance how do you hear me Brad we hear you loud and clear how us wonderful hear you clearly what is the current mission that you're on and what are you hoping to achieve while at the ISS well I think our current Mission could be characterized as ongoing and so though um the people change the the mission stays the same we're here to do science we're here to learn about how to live and work explore space and the people that are up here doing the work are just trying to uh keep the the motor running if you will and we also add to the data that they collect for space so we and of ourselves we're experiments as well so we're here to contribute to all the knowledge that we gain from living here on the International Space Station for future exploration talk to us about what a long duration mission is and what specifics go into some of the research that you're conducting well just this week some of the research that um I got to participate in is the material science lab and what that's looking at is the solid solidification process of metal alloys and so we look at how the solid solidification process changes without gravity and investigating these properties will help us make better metal alloys on Earth and for space okay and we're going to talk about zero gravity long duration we're g talk about yes it go ahead I'm sorry no I just was going to address the first part of your question of what long duration was and each one of us are up here for uh about six months of and that's considered long duration six months or more wow and and so Tracy while you have the microphone I I see that you're both seemingly in zero gravity right now how do you deal with zero gravity well handrails really help and um we uh we just learned to um appreciate and respect microgravity and try to work with it rather than against it certainly Janette yeah microgravity is hard hard to get used to and you kind of you kind of have to give into it and just instead of controlling things like we would on Earth um and here we have to use very light forces and let our bodies flow we don't fall so you know we're relatively safe but just letting gravity letting life without gravity take place when you think about the amount of people that are signing up for space tourism and one to experience you're experiencing right now in zero gravity how do you think this is going to change the broader landscape for how people appreciate space you know I what comes to mind is that there there are a lot of fun aspects to being in space I mean floating is one of them this this Sensation that we have right now it seems kind of normal to us because we've been up here for several months um but it's really neat the kind of things that you can do um in the absence of gravity not just um the fun things that we get to do like float and and uh do stupid astronaut tricks but also the science can be quite fascinating when you remove that component but I'll tell you what the the space environment and microgravity um are very challenging and so I would say that there's a lot that you have to not only overcome but just um lower your expectations of your own uh ability to adapt to it at first because what you knew of your life with gravity is so different than your life without it that's perfect no I don't to me there is no such thing as a stupid astronaut trick this all seems very complex to us mere earthlings that are down here trying to figure out just how to make sure that we don't trip when we walk so we got to know what what is your own schedule like on a daily basis well I can give you um today for example um the schedule changes every day but today on my schedule I had exercise first exercise is one of the most important things we do for our health but it's also adding to the data that we collect here on the International Space Station so I had to do weightlifting and then I had to do the treadmill and so I had to do three miles on the treadmill after lifting you know today was my heaviest day so I'm going to sleep pretty well tonight and then after that we had SE I had several tasks to help um maintain the station so I was working here in the Japanese module working on their um environmental monitoring sensors and making sure sure that those work well and so the other part of the day was also looking at stowage and Logistics on board because we don't have as much um Logistics stowage area as you think and then after that we had a meeting and then you have lunch and then we have a couple we had had another um earlier recording that we had to do and here we are right now I would love to know as well when you think about the overlap and the combination of the privatization of the space industry and still the the public sector and how these forces have come together how has that elevated the work that you're able to do and and perhaps how has it changed it over time you know we could probably talk about that aspect of uh space exploration um longer than we have time for today but I would say that one thing it's done is add a lot of complexity to what we already do um and and there's so many facets to that one of them is that you know NASA um we we've um had a very long history in space exploration our relationship with our International Partners to uh most notably with um our Russian colleagues and we've developed a culture and um when you bring in the privatization and the commercial and industrialization of space it adds a component that um uh that highlights the word cooperation and learning how to do that uh learning how to develop another culture um it takes time it's it's quite a frontier so I would say it adds a lot of complexity but then again there's so much more that we learn about the way we do business ourselves and and our whole mission by expanding uh the circle and including those communities like privatization and Comm commercialization absolutely we need to leave the discussion there but as you were mentioning you have a you have space tricks that you've developed over time can we just see one real quick before we let you go okay we'll we'll try this but if it doesn't work but we'll try it remember you have to lower your expectations yes stand bye wow |
_2gtYIckp-E | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_2gtYIckp-E | 2024-06-29 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | How women can use poker skills in business and beyond | think of some traits needed to Succeed in Business strong negotiation skills people skills risk-taking discipline and an unlikely place you might see some of those skills in action poker around 95% of professional poker players are male according to zipia our next guest's mission is to teach more women poker skills to strengthen the business and life skills and for more on this Jenna just Peak 6 and poker power co-founder joins us now Jenna great to have you here on the program with us we just ran through some of the skill sets that can be developed while playing poker of course there's the poker face there's negotiation that can really tie into when you're trying to get a new job what are some of those top skills that you see transferable from the poker table all the way into the business environment well Brad thank you so much for having me here today and uh we're super excited to to share this information because ironically this game has been around for hundreds of years and women have not played and poker can teach you skills and create incredible toolbox for women in particular the skills we care about teaching strategy teaching Capital allocation and teaching risk-taking and so Jenny when you think about getting more women into poker what is poker power and Peak six doing to make sure that you see more uh people flowing into do we call do we call it sport do we call it game what what what we call it mind sport we love it we call it mind sport mind sport game of skill yes absolutely so how do you go about this yes so we're we're definitely on a mission we want to teach the first million girls and women that have ever played um and most important is that we have our male allies supporting us doing this because there's no reason it's just a card game so how we started was actually with my daughter and today we are teaching and when she was 14 and today we're teaching everyone from 10 to to senior corporate women we are out in the marketplace in the last three years we've taught at over 280 companies and organizations in 40 countries which is just incredible that they're all on board to learn this game and understand the benefits of doing it you know when we sit at the table you know men have been doing this for years they do it because it's fun right and so first of all we're having a lot of fun second of all we're networking together which men have also been taking advantage of that over the years but most important we learned this really on early on with one of our actual our US Bank clients who took their senior women and their clients together to do our poker 101 and the next morning this this uh senior woman wrote me a note exhilarating exhilarating event in one sentence I realized I wasn't playing to win H this game can help women practice learning this skill on how to win because it's not just it it's not about how not to lose right it's playing to win and that's what we're teaching them at poker power just lastly while we have you we only have about 45 seconds here but when we think about the annexation that a lot of people give to the stock market some people call gambling sometimes whereas poker really is and can be gambling and I mean it is thrown into that realm you know how do you kind of decipher between the two and make sure that you're not taking a gambler's mindset into something that is investing and has more strategy around it it's really incredible what I love about poker is we have the opportunity to teach and practice negotiation there is no money exchanged at poker power and women are learning these skills every single day when they sit at the table with us they're learning how to strategize they're learning how to uh adjust and be flexible about their strategy they're learning to weigh risk versus reward not just avoid risk and most important they're learning how to negotiate with a person at the end of the day poker is not about the cards it's about the people at the table and where else in the world you get to practice negotiating sure versus actually negotiating so it's an enormous opportunity for women to practice since they're not doing it in their Hobby and their play when they're young so we're super excited for your audience to join us and bring the women and girls in their lives |
DqPftl08Zpo | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DqPftl08Zpo | 2024-06-29 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | What July 4th BBQs will cost Americans this year | let's talk a little Fourth of July here Independence Day less than a week away so get ready to fire up those grills as more Americans plan on hosting 4th of July celebrations and if you have to have a barbecue or you plan to have one this Fourth of July weekend most of the fixings will cost more due to sizzling inflation Yahoo finance senior reporter Brook dma is here with the breakdown all right Brooke what do we know about what the cost of what you're throwing on the grill is going to look like well Brad it's going to cost more than last year but Americans do expect to spend about $3 less let's break it all down consumers they're gearing up for their fourth of July holiday like I said Americans plan to spend an average of $90 on food alone this Fourth of July and that's according to the National Retail Federation and that's actually $3 cheaper than what they plan to spend last year so how can you get the best bang for your buck Well w Fargo told Yahoo finance it really depends on what exactly you buy let's break this all down how this fourth is comparing to last Year by taking a closer look at the latest consumer price index that we have from the month of May kicking off with protein of course the star of the event the cost of beef well that's going to be up about 4.9% hot dogs Frank Fitters that's going to be up about 7.3% compared to last year but chicken here well that might be the way to go if you're looking to save that's up just 1.4% year-over-year and you can't have a barbecue without some sides and dips if you're looking at potato chips those will also cost more uo roughly 2.7% compared to last year and to wash it all down when it comes to drinks let's talk soda here you're getting the best bang for your buck by getting those 2 L bottles compared to cans aluminum that's still driving the cost of cans higher and while most Americans typically do barbecue at home for 4th of July they don't tend to go out to those restaurants that is where you're growing to get the most for your money as inflation at restaurants and bars continues to push the overall food inflation number higher and most Fargo outlined just that they gave this example here the cost of a burger at home with all the fixings think cheese tomato lettuce at home that one Burger will cost roughly $2.15 now that's compared to roughly $7 when dining out but this holiday as we've seen and we've heard so far this year consumers are really looking for their best paying for their Buck they're really seeking those value deals especially when it comes to groceries so two stocks that I'll be watching right here Walmart and Target those two retailers really doubling down on low prices last month Target announced plans to cut prices on roughly 5,000 items we heard last month that they already cut prices on 1,500 and consumers will also be looking to buy in bulk they want to get the most for their money here so I'll have my eye on the wholesale retailers think Costco think Walmart Sam's Club and also think BJ's Wholesale Club as well |
lfzIzY8PtWM | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lfzIzY8PtWM | 2024-06-28 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Mortgage rates decline for fourth week in a row | [Music] turning now to the housing market mortgage rates are declining for a fourth straight week here with the numbers we've got Yahoo finances Danny Romero hey Danny Brad mortgage rates fell to their lowest level since early April rates are down for four consecutive weeks the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate ticked down to 6.86% as of June 27th Freddy Mack data shows now despite the pullback in borrowing cost over the past month rates are still flirting around that 7% level millions of households are locked up into a cheap mortgage which could be a reason why consumer spending has been so resilient in the face of higher interest rates still potential home buyers are facing affordability challenges which is impacting housing activity pending home sales a leading indicator for the housing sector fell 2.1% in May according to the National Association of Realtors now with a tight housing Supply home prices have pushed higher shrinking the pool of buyers who can afford a home now a household earning $100,000 a year can only afford 37% of home listings today now how long could it take to unlock the housing market economists at Capital economics think that mortgage rates would need to fall closer to 5% for Supply to start normalizing so this housing recovery might take longer than expected Brad h |
qGE9q9DU-Ag | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qGE9q9DU-Ag | 2024-06-28 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | There is 'early softening' in housing market: Economist | red fin has a new report out re revealing for the first time since the start of the pandemic the typical us home is selling for less than list price here with more we've got Daryl Fairweather who is the chief Economist at Redfin darl always a pleasure to grab some time with you can you help us break down what you're seeing in the data here as it was really for the four weeks ending June 23rd here where this typical home was selling for less than its list price we're starting to see some early softening in the market homes taking a bit longer to sell they're selling for under asking price on average and that means that buyers are getting a little bit more negotiating power those listed prices they shouldn't be taken as the end all Beall you can come in with an offer under asking price especially if it's a home that's been sitting on the market for a while what are we seeing in the new listings right now how is that kind of moving in the market as as of this juncture new listings are up they're not up enough to get us back to levels of 2022 or before that but they are an improvement from last year which is why we're starting to see more competition among sellers to lower their prices more price drops home selling for below asking there's a bit more pressure on sellers to meet buyers where they're at they're having to work a bit harder is is that perhaps leading to more staleness for some of the older listings and then where does that kind of also impact the pricing uh situation too well by historical standards this is still very much a seller's market if you price appropriately your home will sell quickly with multiple offers but there are some homeowners who really need a lot of money to move probably because they have those super low mortgage rates from before and maybe they'll just deist their home instead of having it sell for a price that's too low for them where should buyers expect some relief when when you feel like and you are navigating an environment where we're looking at these all-time high home pric is here on average where should buyers perhaps be able to say okay or at least chart their own path into entry into this Market well it is difficult but not in every single Market in places like Florida and Texas the market is softening even more so I think buyers can uh have more negotiating power there another bit of Silver Lining is that mortgage rates are likely going to fall we got some good inflation data just today so that's signed that the FED will probably cut later this year and we may see lower mortgage rates because of that mortgage rates have come down from from May's six-month High weekly average still just under about 7% here and so if we do see that that cut what type of perhaps wave of new buyers are we expecting to emerge buyers are so sensitive to rates that any little any little movement in rates will pull some back into the market so I expect that if rates come down we'll get buyers back in the market and we'll kind of be back where we are in terms of affordability there may be a slight window where rates come down before prices re accelerate but timing that can be very difficult especially when there's so few homes for sale I think buyers should focus more on finding the home that's right for them that fits within their budget instead of try tying to time the market to save some money okay I want to end here with some actionable tips for those who are going out this weekend trying to scout out some Properties or perhaps even those that have a property listed let's let's start with the buyers though what are some tips for buyers who are charting their own path this weekend and trying to see what seems right for them and what's within their price range well the most important thing is to stay within your budget there's it can be really dangerous to go above and beyond because you're not putting money towards savings and that can be just dangerous so just make sure you stick to your budget even though prices are high and mortgage rates are high don't go too far with your offer the second thing is to know that homes that have been on the market for longer are probably going to sell for under their listed price or they will have a price drop at some point so keeping an eye out for those listings that have been overlooked can be a way to get a deal and then finally we do anticipate that mortgage rates will fall but like I said I don't think it's the best idea to try to time that because there will be more competition later so just focusing on what's within your control like your budget and the listings that are out there I think is the best way to go about it |
Uo49ZszYGzw | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uo49ZszYGzw | 2024-06-28 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Mortgage rates decline for fourth week in a row | [Music] turning now to the housing market mortgage rates are declining for a fourth straight week here with the numbers we've got Yahoo finances Danny Romero hey Danny Brad mortgage rates fell to their lowest level since early April rates are down for four consecutive weeks the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate ticked down to 6.86% as of June 27th Freddy Mack data shows now despite the pullback in borrowing cost over the past month rates are still flirting around that 7% level millions of households are locked up into a cheap mortgage which could be a reason why consumer spending has been so resilient in the face of higher interest rates still potential home buyers are facing affordability challenges which is impacting housing activity pending home sales a leading indicator for the housing sector fell 2.1% in May according to the National Association of Realtors now with a tight housing Supply home prices have pushed higher shrinking the pool of buyers who can afford a home now a household earning $100,000 a year can only afford 37% of home listings today now how long could it take to unlock the housing market economists at Capital economics think that mortgage rates would need to fall closer to 5% for Supply to start normalizing so this housing recovery might take longer than expected Brad h |
oV87pIbgrPk | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oV87pIbgrPk | 2024-06-28 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Biden, Trump tax reforms 'very unlikely' with a split Congress | when we when asked rather about tax policy during the first presidential debate President Biden and former president Trump mostly argued about Trump's 2017 tax cuts here's what they had to say the tax cuts spurred the greatest economy that we've ever seen just prior to co and even after Co that $2 trillion tax cut benefited the very wealthy I what I'm going to do is fix the tax system so what do we need to know about each candidate's tax policies we've got Daniel gelrud founder of G trting company here with us Dan good to see you thanks so much for hopping on so from what we could decipher about what either of the tax agendas would be what do you make of it and what should the American people actually take away from the debate on the topic of tax well we didn't get a lot from the debate last night most of what we know about potential tax proposals really relates to what they've said outside of the debate uh as as you just said there wasn't a lot of detail there but I could I could tell you where I think each of them are lining up now let's start with this because it's an important Point Brad is that unless whoever wins the presidency is going to have both houses of Congress it is very unlikely that there are going to be tax changes because you're going to have gridlock especially over a topic like taxes which becomes very sensitive now what will happen again as you just talked about is the Trump tax cuts will sunset at the end of 2025 so if nothing happens in terms of new legislation with taxes we are going to go back to what the tax laws were were for individuals that is of what it was in 2016 so we're just going to go back from where we started 8 years ago now the big picture here is is that Trump is talking about more tax cuts specifically that he wants to make the individual tax cuts permanent from back in 2017 he's looking to once again cut potentially corporate income tax he said that he does not want to tax tips from those who work in service industry Ries I also think you're going to see Donald Trump do some defunding potentially of the IRS which came about from the inflation reduction act you know there was a lot of talk about all these Auditors I think Donald Trump may very well make a move to undo that funding and I also think we could see some Cuts in capital gains tax Biden on the other hand probably is going to propose the exact opposite he's talked about uh more taxes on the wealthy so you would see individual tax rates going up you're going to definitely see a proposal to change the corporate income tax because he said many times corporations don't pay their fair share we could see some changes on capital gains tax rate we could see a wealth tax on billionaires so there's a lot in play but again nothing happens unless you have both houses of Congress yeah that's a key reminder here and and it certainly does come down to some of the other down ballot voting as you were mentioning as well for those offices particularly Dan as as we think about some of the tax credits that have been allowed I mean there's been everything from EV tax credits to child tax credits for households that are trying to wrap their minds around what may change what may get taken off the table and have a significant impact to their own personal economy if you will what is what is the signal and and what are some of the larger items that could roll off that reframe that household uh Financial balance if you will well what I think happens there as far as any tax credits that you brought up is that with EVS I do not see Donald Trump putting uh any tax credits out there related to evbs and uh you know as he alluded to uh he he does does want clean water and clean air but he is not talking about really having any type of major climate uh initiatives where Joe Biden is really the exact opposite so I think we could see a lot more going on related to credits uh for the environment now as far as what would happen with families they both may align very well related to having child care tax credits because there's a lot of voters that that matters uh for but keep in mind no matter who wins this election right they're going to be a one- termer or it's just going to be the next four years so that does give them flexibility to not have to worry about reelection so they'll probably push really hard to make changes what will pull them back and it could even come from their own political parties in Congress is those in Congress that have to worry about reelection are going to be very very sensitive to voters pocketbooks because that's always an issue for people it's not how much uh you make it's how much you keep that's most important for any anyone who's paying taxes in the United States |
cwI7Dv-u42I | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwI7Dv-u42I | 2024-06-28 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Strategist discusses why moving Biden out of the race would be a 'contentious' process | let's talk about another big story that we're tracking and that is the first presidential debate happening last night President Biden and former president Trump kicking off their first debate of this election cycle blaming one another for the state of the economy and inflation we got to take a look at what I was left when I became president what Mr Trump left me the economy collapsed there were no jobs it was terrible and so what we had to do is try to put things back together again there's more to be done workingclass people are still in trouble I come up household where the kitchen table if the things weren't able to be met during the month it was a a problem we had the greatest economy in the history of our country we have never done so well the thing we never got the credit for is getting us out of that covid mess uh he created mandates that was a disaster for our country he has not done a good job he's done a poor job and inflation's killing our country it is absolutely killing us well despite inflation being top of mind for many Americans some something else really dominated the debate President Biden and former president Trump's performances on the stage here with debate reaction we have Kim Wallace he's senior managing director of 22v research and also with us we have Greg valer Chief US policy strategist of agf Investments great to have you both Kim let me start uh with you in terms of democratic side here the Democrats were looking to reassure Americans that we have made progress on inflation that the economy is actually in a strong state I'm curious to get your reaction to last night and whether or not it backfired oh I don't think uh anything but backfired the goal for each of these guys last night was to reassure their base not have any erosion of the base and to not alienate undecided voters Independence um former president Trump didn't violate that theme uh it's hard to say that uh President Biden will be able to repair quickly the Damage Done to both the base and his attractiveness to independent Greg uh I was looking through your note this morning here and you actually put that in your bottom line here quite frankly and your bottom line tentatively was that Biden will drop out within days giving an opportunity to a fresh young face I want to get your reaction to the debate and also who the markets or anyone out there some of the Fortune 500 CEOs that even have said that they might not side with Trump but they also saw last night's performance from Biden what their kind of calculus is that they're running this morning well it was a disaster it was a debacle I agree with Kim that they did not accomplish what they were hoping to do with their uh bases or with crucial uh support no I I in terms of someone new coming in at this late point it's a process I don't think it'll be resolved in a day or two or three I think we've got to see how polls look we've got to see how the party is but I can tell you and I'm sure Kim would agree that uh during the T night there were an awful lot of emails and texts from Democrats who are now really worried about losing the house the Senate and the White House Kim do you agree Greg good to see you again it's been a while I completely agree um the text and the emails started about 10 minutes after 9: they continued through 1:00 a.m. this morning I turned it off after that uh it will be a contentious process to select someone other than Biden to run against uh president Trump but my betting is that's where most of the money in the Democratic party and most of the core supporters the leaders are this morning it's very difficult to avoid the fact that President Biden no longer seems viable in this election we'll have some feedback he's in North Carolina he kept that schedule so we'll have some feedback this morning I agree with Greg it's very difficult to come back from this Greg what does this mean for our view out there the investors trying to figure out if we do see Biden drop out of the race the Democrats ultimately end up putting somebody else uh in front there to run against former president Trump is that going to add instability does that add volatility how do you see that playing out yes volatility inst stability you name it uh KLA Harris would logically be next in line but as you know her polls aren't good and there's a feeling she may lack the gravitas for the job as far as uh Gavin Newsome uh he's in the middle of a huge budget crisis in California self-inflicted I might add and I don't see Nome so they're gon to if they decide they have to look elsewhere I think there are several Governors headed by uh Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan uh maybe Josh Ziro of Pennsylvania but they're going to have to look at other Governors Poma Harris is not a shoe in Yeah you mentioned two governors in major swing States as well here you know another big election issue hit last night and that was Trump's tax cuts which are set to expire next year Trump touted the success of his policy while Biden defended his own stance want to play this Quick Clip and I'll get your reaction on the other side Kim the tax cut spurred the greatest economy that we've ever seen just prior to co and even after Co we took in more Revenue with much less tax and companies were bringing back trillions of dollars back into our country the country was going like never before and we were ready to start paying down debt the fact is that I said nobody even making under $400,000 had a single penny increasing their taxes and will not and if I'm reelected that'll be the case again all right so one element where AI could probably be used especially in factchecking in real time perhaps here Kim you know as you're hearing all of this discussed what what is this setup for what Americans should expect to be the core and Central debating Point around taxation it's a good question it will be relevant it will be a lot more relevant uh in the first half of next year than it is today and it's certainly not important to Democrats right now but to answer the question fact Checker Paradise last night uh throughout this debate that's not the story the story is one guy prevailed Trump in a setting that was negotiated by the Biden team and the other guy did not show up the person we saw at the State of the Union was not available last night Greg's right Democrats are going to be thinking about who replaces him another name you have to throw into the mix whether you want to or not is Hillary Clinton she will gather some support immediately from donors and some of the leaders of the party do you think she could be a candidate there c i I think that if the party is desperate what's the old saying desperate times require Desperate Measures you can't totally rule her out I kind of rule out Michelle Obama she hates politics I think that would be unlikely but yeah I'm sure there'll be a boomlet for Hillary my take would be that within the party she's pretty much a pariah right now okay and so's point is right but you know it goes back to something he and I have both said the way forward is contentious for Democrats there's no way around that realistically there is absolutely U no way to do this smoothly but they have work to do and they know it I mean is there either side that's actually getting across an agenda at this juncture K I'll go to you first I I you know I'm going to go back and gently dissuade you from thinking in those terms no one else is thinking about that inside of politics this morning uh on the Democratic side it is all crisis Management on the Republican side it is taking advantage of the momentum that was handed to them as a gift and protecting it growing it as they go into Milwaukee in July to answer the question policy agenda hasn't really been foremost in this campaign which has been a campaign from home for both guys for different reasons and I don't expect policy to matter much in the next week or two Greg i i l the same question to you I mean with the additive that a lot of people who were trying to figure out exactly what they saw last night and the lack of push back on on kind of both sides there ultimately and clearly that Biden missed on some of the alley oops that should have been there for his own camp and I imagine many people still trying to figure out what black jobs actually are at this point all these things considered I mean there were several snafus and and clear as they were are either of these candidates in a good position to govern for four years should they take office no they're not they both have huge flaws and I think it'll be difficult I let me go back to one point really quickly you mentioned tax cuts they they were discussed last night my sense is in the last few weeks a lot of members of Congress including Republicans are beginning to get cold feet about extending the or even expanding the Trump tax cuts that's another four or five trillion dollars and I think a lot of members of Congress are getting worried that our total debt of you know 34 trillion is unsustainable and we may have to look at a more uh restrictive fiscal policy all right Kim Wallace senior managing director of 22v research and Greg valier who is the chief US policy strategist of agf Investments great to have you both here and thanks so much for your reaction to what we saw yesterday evening |
Ejrr0jU8OZY | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ejrr0jU8OZY | 2024-06-28 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Strategist discusses why moving Biden out of the race would be a 'contentious' process | well the first presidential debate capturing America's attention after President Biden and former president Trump went back and forth on key issues including the economy taxes and foreign policy we got to take a look at what I was left when I became president what Mr Trump left me the economy collapsed there were no jobs the tax cuts spurred the greatest economy that we've ever seen just prior to co and even after Co the fact is that the vast majority of constitutional Scholars supported row when it was decided the idea that state are able to do this is a little like saying we're going to turn civil rights back to the States as far as Russia and Ukraine if we had a real president the president that knew that was respected by Putin he would have never he would have never invaded Ukraine the only person in this stage is a convicted felon is the man I'm looking at right now he did beat Medicare he beat it to death and he's destroying Medicare because all of these people are coming in they're putting them on Medicare they're putting them on Social Security they're going to destroy Social Security for more we want to bring in Clayton Allen he's your Asia group's us director Clayton it's great to have you here so let's take a step back because here we are this morning we're about 40 minutes into the trading day and I think investors at this point are trying to gauge whether or not we actually could see a new candidate put forward from the Democratic party I'm curious your reaction to what we heard last night and what that tells us just about some of the uncertainty that lies ahead certainly thank you for having me on I think the one major takeway last night is that Biden had a bad night the bar for him doing well was higher than Trump trump had to avoid uh appearing sort of dis disorganized or aggressive uh and he largely did that for about 80 minutes of the 90-minute debate Trump kept his aggression in check he avoided major blunders now he fabricated and in some cases completely exaggerated any number of you know actual verifiable facts but that doesn't matter much for the narrative uh the takeaway from last night is that Biden looks old and he looks weak than he did going in so certainly that's stirring speculation that he could there could be a push to replace him well let's talk about that push our very own Rick Newman who covers politics for us said something that I thought was so powerful earlier that Jill Biden is the most important person in America right now because she could drive that decision what do you think about that and what do you think the Democratic party can do moving forward if the decision for the Biden Camp is to stay in this election absolutely that's spoton there's a lot of speculation this morning about who in the de Democratic establishment could lean in and push Biden to step aside from the ticket the Democratic establishment's the wrong place to look it's the Biden family cell phone plan somebody on that cell phone plan is the only individual capable of convincing President Biden to step aside if anyone else could have done it they probably would have already tried uh right now this is going to be a decision that only Joe and Joe Biden have control over the signaling out of the White House this morning is that the president's in this he's remaining in the race he's going to win of course that's the narrative you have to put out as a White House you can't say anything else the morning after the debate this is going to add to some of the volatility that we could see in the markets it could I don't know that that's necessarily what I would expect I think that the the basic fact the the functional reality that we live in right now is that while there is a lot of media speculation about replacing President Biden at the top of the ticket to actually do that faces some major hurdles first of all there's not a clear replacement at hand Camala Harris has the strongest case for it but she's perceived as a weak candidate by a lot of people in the Democratic party there's also the question of primaries the person at this any replacement would be an appointed rather than an elected candidate and that turns off big parts of the democratic Coalition they're upset that their person wasn't called up to be up to be the relief pitcher um in any case you don't have a clear replacement you don't have a clear process to do that I think that if anything we get a lot of speculation about a replacement but it doesn't necessarily add to volatility about policy shifts or other changes shifting from a Biden to potentially a trump Administration Clayton I also want to get your take on some of the policy decisions that were discussed in last night's debate specifically with regards to tariffs let's take a listen it's not going to drive them higher it's just going to cost countries that have been ripping us off for years like China and many others in all fairness to China it's going to just force them to pay us a lot of money reduce our deficit tremendously and give us a lot of power for other things this tariff is 10% tariffs everything coming in the the country you know what the economists say that's going to cost the average American $2,500 a year more because they're going to have to pay the difference in food and all the things that were imported so Clayton I know we didn't get a ton of clarity there on the exact nature of these policies and Trump has previously floated this idea of eliminating the US income tax uh to sort of be replaced with the these tariffs on these Imports but from your perspective here at what point will the market start to really consider pricing in the potential impact of these tariffs if we do get a sense that Trump is starting to get ahead in the polls I think we're starting to see a lot of investors really pay attention to that and take the Tariff threat seriously the feedback we get from our clients is that people are generally of the mind that Trump has the much stronger Edge in the campaign right now people take him seriously when he talks about tariffs uh I think the other takea away from this is that people look at the sort of macroeconomic impacts the inflationary impacts of tariffs and recognize that Trump's narrative that this is other countries paying the US is perhaps out of step with the way tariffs work in reality that this will impose some inflationary pressure on us consumers that inflationary pressure could be exacerbated by immigration policy that raises labor costs across Mass across various sectors of the economy and I think the feedback we get is that investors are increasingly cognizant and increasingly taking those those potential impacts serious iously what do you think that inflationary pressure could look like more specifically I don't have a good estimate of what the inflationary pressure could look like in terms of a percentage amount I think that the takeaway that we would look at here is that there's a lot of policies that Trump has proposed which cumulatively would increase inflationary pressure a lot across a lot of the economy you also take into account the deficit growth under Trump which we now can put numbers to and I think that that paints a rather disturbing picture for us fiscal policy the takeaway is that deficits are increasing no matter who wins but there's a potential that some of Trump's other policies could exacerbate that inflationary impact Clayton how much do you think the Biden campaign needs to be concerned that the FED has kept rates too high for too long and that could put pressure on this economy as we get closer to November I think that that's a that's a reasonable concern to raise I think that fed policy certainly is one of many factors that are shaping people's view of the economy specifically as it relates to housing cost the issue though is that fed policy is not an immediate impact on voter sentiment there's a delay between a decision at the fed and people changing their minds in The Ballot Box remember the first early ballots go out at the beginning of September we're very much closing in on the end of this race uh a Fed decision in you know even the next meeting would probably come too late to have any real impact on the election so I think that it's a backward looking risk that the Biden Administration would be evaluating all right we're going to have to leave it there Clayton but really appreciate you joining us thank you so much that was Clayton Allen your Asia groups us director |
NbjSMNHI4YU | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NbjSMNHI4YU | 2024-06-28 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | PCE data was 'the best one can expect': Economist | let's take a quick look at treasury yields moving lower after the latest economic data pce personal consumption expenditures data was in line with estimates investors eagerly awaiting the fed's next move on interest rates now the CME fed watch tool showing 67% probability of a rate cuts to come in September for more on this we're joined by Jennifer Lee senior Economist and managing director here and Jennifer of course we're beginning with this this morning just as we're thinking about what the market activity may look like as we round out this the final trading session of the first half here and what this really signals for the FED in their own pathway going forward here does this move the dial um good morning and thank you very much for having me on you know this I'm going to say that this report itself was probably the best that you know one can expect um and it certainly helps the FED I think give them a little bit more Comfort um on their path to starting to ease policy which we still expect to started happening in September um you know I mean obviously you guys just went through the headlines you know with a uh with with a 0.5% increase in incomes and uh and 0.2% in spending but when you drill drilling it down a little bit further it was actually a little bit better as as I've been as as I'm trying to say right now you know all though we're starting to see some softening on Services spending we've had two straight months of real spending of 0.1% which is quite modest um and it's actually not a bad thing because that's where all the stickiness of inflation has been coming in so we start seeing some pullback or some cooling off and spending on uh in the services side that will help cool the stickiness of or unstick the stickiness of inflation so that I think was a was a good thing but at the same time consumers weren't pulling back completely they're still spending on discretionary items like recreational goods and vehicles and recreational services so shows that every not everyone is terribly worried just yet but we are starting to see some pullback on things like dining out so you know so there's some pairing back bottom L of all this there's some pairing back Cooling in services spending which will help the service of CPI um uh eventually start moving downward and I think this is all good news for the FED allowing them to Exhale a little bit and again go continue hopefully on that pace that path for a u brief cut to come in September yes so Jennifer okay so that's what I was going to ask you there the timing then of that rate rate H cut here do you think it's more likely that the FED is going to act then in September yes I think so I mean there you know obviously we had that strong or that very encouraging May CPI number in as ch how said you know it's a good number but we need more of them and you know so over the next couple of months you know we're going to start accumulating more inflationary data this is probably one of the the bigger pieces that we saw since that maypi and uh you know we need to see all the different inflation indicators all pointing in the same direction and that will give the FED um the comfort and the confidence it needs to start cutting rates in September but Jennifer do you think it's more likely though that the FED is going to air on the side of caution here we talk about the risk here still to inflation that we could see inflation rise just a bit we talk time and time again about how this path forward for inflation is likely to be bumpy then wouldn't that though strengthen the argument that hey maybe it still makes sense even though we have seen this progress we are starting to see this disinflation that it still makes sense maybe for the FED to wait several months before cutting so we still have you know a few more months before September rolls around and um and for sure I mean if we had to we're always asked you know like right now we have officially two rate cuts for the FED um in September and December and you know we're always asked you know if you had to lean which way you know which way would you be going and we would sort of say that you with their air on the side of caution as you just pointed out and do fewer I guess um but again we still have a few more months of uh of data to consume and and and to analyze and uh you know again everything is nothing goes down in a straight line and the path to you know two% is going to be bumpy but as as long as everything is pointing in that same general direction you know I think it will at least pay the way for at least the First Rate cut to come the FED likes to look and and continue to carry the fact that it should be a politic IAL to what extent do you believe that that factors into their thinking as well here trying to dodge any kind of closeness or proximity to the general election um it's it's it's it's tough and this is like you know fed's not alone you know we've got you know the bank of England for example like dealing with that their next election coming up um next week um so we've got for example like the that's where we have the B England um you know so holding off until um after the election and among other reasons as well you know um so I think the the the the Federal Reserve is very cautious um um on that front trying to as you say you know Dodge any um uh you know any bullets that could potentially com In from from from this election but you know we do have them pausing in November just to see how things uh fall out uh before moving again in December all right Jennifer Lee a senior Economist and managing director thanks so much |
spJ5shxXDJ4 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=spJ5shxXDJ4 | 2024-06-28 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | What a rate cut could do for the market's record highs | stocks moving higher in early action we've also got yields under pressure after the fed's preferred inflation gauge showed progress on inflation so here to discuss what this all means for the market and what this means for the FED moving forward we want to bring in Marvin low he's Day Street senior Global macro strategist Marvin it's good to see you here so we're looking at some relief maybe in the market just in terms of what this could mean for the FED do you think this print makes it more likely that the FED might act sooner rather than later you know what um I I I think the margins it certainly confirms a view if you believe that they might go in September rather than December it's a possibility um but the number came in pretty much as expected um you know it continues to show the disinflation that the FED is um needing to see but um you know there's still other components within the economy that it needs to get comfortable with before it pulls that trigger if you will but you know certainly at at at at the margin if you thought September was a possibility it gives you a little bit more Comfort on that and so if September is a possib ility here one of the major things that we're trying to figure out is what employment or unemployment would tick to and then ultimately as well where inflation would continue on its own Trend what are your estimations by then yeah I mean I mean for sure so um you know this was a an encouraging number um you know absolutely uh one of the things that we look at uh when you you know kind of go through the details if you will is that these are year-over-year comparisons so um if you had very low inflation numbers last year in order for inflation to go down this year relative to last year the number has to be uh uh as weak if you will so those base effects um in terms of how we look at things become more challenging so you could actually see inflation tick up over the course of the next couple of months before it stabilized and I think that's one of the challenges for the FED is that you're going to have this up and down kind of movement going into the fall so it might not be as clear as what we're seeing today do you think that even in that trend that markets could continue to notch new all-time highs yeah you know I think it is supportive um you know I think keeping the FED um in the story from a rate cutting perspective is powerful um you know we're coming into earning season those numbers look pretty solid um and really looking at growth expectations around earnings for 2024 as a full year and 2025 you know it still shows that there's strength within the corporate earning space Marvin I want to switch gears a little bit and talk about what we saw last night from the president presidential candidates former president Trump and President Biden and I bring this up because a lots of talk this morning about whether or not Biden is going to continue in the race and my question to you is how you're viewing this from a strategy perspective how big of a risk maybe this potentially is the uncertainty uh to the market yeah I mean I mean for sure um the performance of both candidates were were interesting I I'll just leave it at that um you know kind of looking at the odds Market if you will um you know another Trump presidency um became a much larger um possibility ultimately and you know how we look at things is that when those odds go up you have to look at those policies that might come along with it and really whether or not we're talking about tarist whether or not we're talking about a a much U more lenient tax environment you do wind up with inflationary pressures so that is um certainly one of the things that are in the back of our mind um kind of having said that a lot can happen between now and November um as well as you know real policy versus what uh what what some of these candidates might use when they're stumping around is is often very different Marvin given that though that there's so much uncertainty is it likely to add to some of that volatility that we could see leading up to election day you know what it's going to be isolated um you know I think the markets generally will look at uh a trump presidency as uh more Market friendly you know less regulation you know potentially less taxes from from that environment it does provide support but you're going to get Nuance you're going to get volatility in certain sectors that might benefit versus others um so yes political risk is something that you need a premium for and we're seeing that um really play out in Europe as well as the other Emerging Markets as some of these surprises keep coming up on the political side of things one of the parties right now seems like it's three weekends away from weekend at Bernie so all of this thing considered if we were to see a swap in or some type of new cand Cate emerge from the Democratic party what would that do for markets what would the reaction be there I mean you said that rather than I did right but um uh you know we'll certainly parse the um uh the viability of that candidate um you know it does come down to Six States it comes down to how those candidates are divided um and really the Calculus if another candidate emerges how how successful can they be um does it really change the concern that the Democrats have now and really the way the markets are leaning more heavily um that the debate really assisted another Trump uh Administration Marvin low State Street senior Global macro strategist Marvin thanks so much for taking the time here with us this morning thank you |
fUbzY9Fyv1A | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUbzY9Fyv1A | 2024-06-28 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | How elections can spur market volatility | the vix has been hovering just near historic lows this year but is the presidential election going to change that here to discuss maybe the upcoming volatility that we could see in the market is our very own Josh schaer Josh it doesn't look like the volatility has hit the markets just yet but you've got a chart of the day for us here yes our chart of the day in the morning brief newsletter this morning came courtesy of our friend Keith learner over at truis and what Keith highlights is essentially you don't see a lot of volatility in markets until those two big bars that are sticking out on that graph October and November so you usually see a volatility spike in October leading into the election and then it volatility sort of dies down after the actual president is elected in that first week of November and guys I highlighted this chart this morning because I think the broad takeaway here is we're going to start talking a lot more about the election you're going to start hearing a lot more about the election in the news especially in normal mainstream news maybe more so than our financial news and the takeaway for investors is largely it's not impacting the market right now it's likely to not impact the market really for a while leading into this election until you really get some uncertainty I think today is probably a good example you guys had our senior columnist Rick Newman on earlier this morning you're talking about the potential of President Biden not actually being the candidate for the Democrats the market is holding up fine volatility isn't doing anything and it's not really impacting stocks so I just think it's an important thing to sort of keep hammering home to people that yes this is a big story and it is something that matters but it doesn't necessarily mean that you should panic when it comes to your Investments right and and I think that chart that we just had up on the screen it actually is a perfect indicator of when people actually start to your point paying attention and deciding how they feel in the weeks leading up to when they're actually going to cast their vote too and how they feel as well with the Investments that they've made as well going into that and it sort of gets into to uh Keith got further into this in his note talking about when you think about the president in terms of markets you're really thinking about how it's going to impact the normal fundamental things that you would look at for the stock market or for individual stocks right you're talking about potential tax policy that could maybe later impact companies or something overall macroeconomic plans that could later impact companies it's not going to hurt earnings next quarter it's not going to hurt earnings in two quarters right you're thinking about overall trajectory and so it's a lot bigger picture and not necessarily an easy read unless you're buying djt and then maybe there'll be volatility well and and we focus in on the the top of the ballot the the president but it's all those down ballot cast votes as well that are particularly critical to all of the things that could actually move where Congress votes where ultimately we see the house and the senate make up that could either be Log Jam or could FasTrack what the presidential agenda might be as well that is campaigned on and that's perhaps where it gets back into the thesis of what you were mentioning within this particular note too yeah we'll check in on in October I was going to say and you also got to ask yourself after last night's performance if we do see somebody if we do see Biden maybe step aside that's all the talk this morning maybe that's going to introduce volatility potentially a little bit earlier I we say the final thing I didn't say on this too that I think is relevant the reason we're talking about volatility is because it has we haven't seen volatility at all and that is part of why we've been able to Rally right if we were to see volatility that is sort of the key one of the key risks to the market rally that people are highlighting so that would be a concern |
ArqO2vR_VVQ | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ArqO2vR_VVQ | 2024-06-28 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Nike needs to focus on innovation to mount turnaround: Analyst | shares of Nike slipping this morning as the athletic footwear and apparel company it reported earnings after the close yesterday slashing its full year Guidance the company said that it expects sales to drop 10% during its C current quarter and warned of soft sales in China admit a more challenging consumer for more on this we're joined by Amanda O'Neal who's the consumer products director at S&P Global ratings here Amanda great to have you here speaking Nike with us this morning I mean want to just get your read in on what we heard from the company and especially how they're navigating this consumer mindset and environment thank you for having me happy Friday happy Friday yeah Nike um it was surprising that Nike you know is expecting Revenue declines next year the company you know was flat this year for Revenue last year they grew 10% so we saw a potential decline throughout the year but um they noted any challenges right so we know that the macro is weaker they've lost some Traction in their digital strategy and have had to shift and pull back and move more into the wholesale Channel and that's going to take time and that is going to um hurt their results for fiscal 25 we know that from what we heard on the call that this looks like it's just going to be a fiscal 25 challenge and that they expect to have momentum from new Innovations hitting the marketplace um to start growing in 26 what would concern us at from a credit perspective is if this trend continues into 2026 and the company isn't able to remedy these Revenue declines so Amanda when we talk about what Nike needs to do to turn that momentum around or regain their momentum they blamed a lot of the Slowdown or misses here on weakness in their lifestyle Brands I guess how much do you think that that argument has traction and then what do they need to do in order for their turnaround efforts to pick up some steam right there's there's a you know some thought in that because they were so focused on their in growing their internal and their digital capabilities and growing on their own um direct to Consumer digital business that maybe they missed on some Innovations in running specifically um and the consumer you know shopped elsewhere um we've seen other brands really come into and gain popularity and take some share those being HCA and on- running for example New Balance has also gained traction so for Nike what they really need to do is continue to focus on Innovation they're going at it from a more balanced approach than digital focus and they're trying to meet the consumer where they want to shop and really hone in on some of the key trends in consumer which includ include um you know comfort athleisure you know and really focusing in on sport Innovation it costs I mean you got to spend heavy into that and hope that it sticks with consumers as well where do you think that division is that Nike can lean into where Innovation will shine through and they'll be able to pass that through to the rest of the business yes so Nike toted on the call that you know they have a vault right of products and a portfolio of um that they can continue to you know bring back and you know recreate them and um grow such as they did with you know re revamping if you will such as what they did with Jordan um pre pandemic um so they believe that they have the products and the Innovations ready they're also pulling forward a lot of Innovations um that they had planned um to reset the the marketplace they are also investing a billion dollars in you know consumer face um marketing and to really showcase these Innovations um as wholesalers in the retail channel to really drive that brand heat all right we're tracking the swoosh here going into the start of today's trading activity Amanda O'Neal consumer products director at S&P Global ratings thanks so much for joining us ahead of the opening bell thanks so much for having me again |
qlV1N7buAh0 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlV1N7buAh0 | 2024-06-28 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Biden-Trump debate raises concern for American voters | President Biden and former president Trump going back and forth over key issues including the economy and Foreign Relations but last night it left voters increasingly concerned about something else what we had to do is try to put things back together again and that's exactly what we began to do we created 15,000 new jobs President Biden meant to say the economy added 15 million jobs instead of 15,000 while former president Trump was quick to fight back the only jobs he created are for illegal immigrants and bounceback jobs a bounceback from the co he has not done a good job he's done a poor job and inflation's killing our country it is absolutely killing us yaho finances Rick Newman joining us now and Rick I think the question we were just talking about it with Greg and Kim a moment ago but can the Democrats defend Biden or what do you think happens next uh so uh we had we had guest just a moment ago giving the case for why Biden needs to go and what Democrats are going to do there's another point of view that I'm also hearing which is uh first of all the only one who can decide whether Joe Biden drops out of this race is Joe Biden okay uh the other point of view is everybody over reacts to debates everybody inside the Beltway and inside the political culture thinks everybody in America watch this debate everybody analyzed every single thing they saw when the reality is a lot of the the so the swing voters uh that are going to determine this election probably didn't even watch now they're going to be hearing about it um they will probably watch or they might watch the next one in September um here's one thing to think about while we're all you know playing the political game like who could be the other candidate be I think the most important person in America right now is Joe Biden uh Joe Biden's wife because uh if Joe Biden personally does not decide to drop out of the race he remains the candidate and guess who might be the one person who could say to him it's time to gently step aside Take a Bow and um accept all the accolades of the party and let someone else it would be his wife Joe Biden so um you know when Greg valer said he expects this to play out by you know Biden to drop out by the weekend I have my doubts of what you heard last night I mean you are kind of really sharp on the factchecking very quickly even as we were playing some of the STS I saw you shaking your head here so what were some of the most egregious that come to mind for you from well the Biden uh campaign has put out 50 Trump lies from the debate I did a cursory fact check of them uh I think they're more or less right so let's say Trump told 50 lies I think that's in the ballpark um he's wrong that all the jobs since the under the bid Administration are bounceback jobs um total employment now is higher than it was before Co we didn't just get back to where we were before Co and stagnate we keep going job growth has been surprisingly robust um for the the entirety of the Biden Administration uh he said that uh Biden's letting undocu undocumented migrants in so they can join Social Security and get free benefits without taxation completely false um and uh you know it's it was I mean you have to question the usefulness of the debates on on the substance because there's just vast amounts of misinformation I mean you could almost argue uh there's as much that's false as is true in these debates um so the whole format has just become kind of misleading I will say that um you know Biden got his we pointed he said 15,000 new jobs went in 15 million uh another point he said there are thousand trillionaires in America when in fact it's billionaires he he he he you know he got his words wrong as Biden has kind of done for a long time what I thought was more worrisome were certain segments where he just could not finish his thought um he started on uh at one point some explanation of how he handled uh the co situation he inherited from Trump he couldn't get that thought finished and he ended by saying look we finally beat Medicare I have no idea what what he was talking about um and uh I think that his preparation for the debate which obviously was you know call up all this data these statistics I mean he was rattling off numbers which he is terrible at at this point that that's the number one thing he should not be doing is trying to remember all these numbers Trump didn't do that Trump honestly just makes up numbers and he makes his claims we had the greatest economy ever and stuff like that where Biden is trying to and by the way Biden's going back in time what happened in his first year his second year uh Americans want to hear about the future they want to hear about the what's coming next and by the way I have to say this the most ridiculous thing um in the debate was at the end when they were arguing over who had the lower golf handicap Brad tweeted about I mean why did why did Biden take the bait I mean okay Americans why take the B so all Americans want to know who's the better golfer no nobody if you care about the future of the country and who's leading it and actually prioritizing making sure that we have good relations internationally that you have a booming economy uh that you have a a safe border as well I mean all of these things considered I don't care who can hit a golf ball FR at the end of the day and a lot of Americans I mean let's have a golf match seriously let let's put these guys I want to have I want to have a presidential uh forget the next debate let's have a golf match they have to walk the course okay like real golfers uh they can have they can have a caddy but I want to see I I want it covered like the Masters uh every shot I want to see the ball when it flies into the into the weeds or hits the tree and I want to see them walk over and hit you know get get out of the rough and no cheating yeah for a presidential debate that's what happened all right everyone Rick thanks so much we'll be seeing you throughout the day |
5Tv_Hw94V5I | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Tv_Hw94V5I | 2024-07-01 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Stock market today: Stocks edge higher as new quarter kicks off | . >> It's 9 a.m. here in New York City. I'm Brad Smith, alongside Madison Mills this morning. This is Yahoo Finance's flagship show The Morning Brief. >> That's right. Looking at stock futures they are moving higher as investors are looking for more cues on the timing of potential interest rate cuts to come and key labor market data. This holiday shortened week. Investors looking ahead to the second half of 2024 and what the third quarter will bring. So let's get to it with the three things you need to know this Monday morning. We've got Yahoo Finance's Josh Shafer Jared Blikre and Josh Lipton with more. >> Hey Matty stock futures in the green to kick off the third quarter and second half of 2020 for the S&P 500 entering Q3. Up 14.5% so far this year. While the tech heavy Nasdaq Composite has rallied more than 18. The Dow, however, has gained a more modest 3.8% in the first six months of the year. Midway through the year, more than two thirds of the S&P 500 gains have come from Nvidia, Apple, alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, meta and Broadcom. Nvidia alone has driven nearly one third of these gains. >> Plus Boeing has agreed to buy longtime supplier spirit AeroSystems in an effort to help resolve its recent safety and manufacturing concerns. In a press release, Boeing said it will pay $4.7 billion, or $37.25 per share, for spirit AeroSystems. As part of the deal, Boeing is going to work with spirit to ensure the continuity of operation, support of Spirit's customers and also the programs that it acquires. This comes as the Department of Justice plans to criminally charge Boeing with fraud over two fatal crashes that took place more than five years ago. The DOJ, asking the planemaker to plead guilty or face a trial, reports say, and shares of chewy surging 11% this morning. >> That is after famed meme investor Keith Gill, known as roaring Kitty, disclosed a 6.6% stake in the pet retailer. The disclosure with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission reveals Gill owns about 9 million shares, which is worth approximately $245 million since Friday's closing price. >> Happy July 1st, everyone. Our top story today. >> Stock futures rising on the first trading day of the second half of the year. The first trading day of the third quarter of this year. And across Wall Street of course, analysts are discussing the investment themes for the next six months. We have our own three themes that we're watching for you today, starting with Big Tech here and an undeniable threat has been the excitement around AI, led by Nvidia, pushing the S&P 500 up 14% in the Nasdaq Composite, up 18% in the first half of the year. Here in studio with more we've got Yahoo Finance's Josh Shafer. Hey Josh. >> Hey guys. Yes I picked tech as sort of the one thing I'm watching going into the second half of the year really specifically kind of the fundamental story of tech and the earnings right. Because yes we've talked ad nauseam about this big tech rally and how it's really been it's been all big tech, right? You look at the S&P 500 this year, more than two thirds of the gains coming from essentially the six companies we always talk about. I'm taking Tesla out of that Mag seven group. And you're talking about companies like Nvidia Apple Amazon, meta etc. And really it's been driven by earnings growth though. And so to me the largest story I'm watching and a lot of strategists that I've talked to are watching going into the second half of the year is just does Big Tech continue to outperform in earnings because that is a reason that they have driven the rally. It's also a reason the S&P 500 came out of an earnings slump. Right. We were in an earnings recession. And essentially big tech by itself carried it out. You look at Q2 earnings coming up to kick us off to start the second half of the year revisions. We highlighted this in our morning newsletter this morning as our chart of the day. You can see there this chart from UBS, the top six tech plus which is again those companies I was just naming are what is keeping revisions from falling for the second quarter. So still right now you're looking at a largely just big tech exceptionalism story. Do the others actually catch up? Do we get some earnings growth from the other sectors and the other companies I think is maybe the largest looming fundamental story for the market rally? Absolutely >> It's a yes and right. We need not only the AI rally to keep this market up, but we also need to see perhaps a little bit of a broadening. Another stat to join your slew of stats there, Josh, that I saw this morning, the top ten companies are having a 35% growth on market cap, but only a 23% growth in earnings. And at what point does that start to be a concern that the earnings maybe aren't justifying the market caps for some of these big companies? Another thing, guys that I'm looking at for the second half of this year here is inflation. And of course, the rate cut cycle to come that investors are pricing in now two cuts. That is despite the Federal Reserve and policy and fed speak indicating only one cut to come for this year. I think about what we heard from Stuart Kaiser last week when he was on our show. Just the idea that you have to really be looking at the jobs market, and that is because we are starting to see jobless claims creeping higher, just ever so slightly here. What does that mean moving forward? Do we start to get a feeling of increasing volatility underneath the surface of some of the data that we're seeing that indicates a potential for that soft landing to become a hard one. Or I was talking to Rick Newman this morning and he was saying inflation is at a place where if you just don't touch it, if you don't look and close your eyes and you're will be at that. Two handle that. The Federal Reserve is looking for. So that's what I'm going to be looking out for this year. Both the jobs data in particular, to indicate where the economy is heading, and also, of course, those rate cuts to come for the fed. >> Well, look no further to this week than for more of that that jobs data. Of course you're going to get that ADP private payrolls Wednesday. And then of course we're going to be looking out to this Friday for that jobs report. The employment situation from the BLS, everybody's favorite statisticians out there. And anyway, one of the other major things that I'm keeping tabs on and that we all are in the second half of the year, we're watching the US election here, and particularly after that first debate. Now without kind of going into and kind of reprising exactly what we heard during the first debate, because there are potentially going to be more debates in the future. We will see there. I'm thinking back to what UBS is putting in their election watch right now, and the scenarios that they're seeing playing out. And they did say that the election is likely to trigger market volatility. They think investors should manage risks accordingly, of course here. But here's particularly what it could imply in equities. The US consumer discretionary and renewable sectors could be vulnerable in the scenario of a Republican sweep of both the House and Congress, while white House and Congress. And then at the same time, they think financials would stand to benefit in that scenario. Now, you think about some of the other scenarios that they're continuing to look at and where they're kind of looking at some of the hedges potentially going forward in their own investment portfolio thesis. One of the huge things that they continue to kind of lean on right now, they think investors should hedge risks and sensitive stocks and sectors, and they think that gold can act as an effective hedge against fears of geopolitical polarization, inflation or excessive deficits, too. >> I mean, the election, Brad, obviously is one thing that I it seems like a known known at this point. But the volatility that we just haven't had at all this year, I think is kind of the key . Right. When we split, if we're splitting this into first half, second half the VIX basically went nowhere for six months. So if it goes somewhere in the second half of the year, you would think at some point maybe we're going to get a little bit of volatility that will impact the market there. Matty. Going back to the inflation story a little bit. It's interesting to me. Doesn't it feel like we came back to where we started the year where everyone or most people are just kind of comfortable. Now you were referencing like just just don't look at it and maybe it will just go down. I feel like we went through that hard three months and now we're entering the second half of year back with, well, inflation is just coming down. It would just be I don't know how fast it's going to come down, but it's just going to come down. And I think if that isn't the case, that's sort of an interesting risk to the rally. >> And seeing the transition to from guests who used to really dig in to which exact moment the fed was going to choose to cut those same people. Now coming on our show and saying it doesn't really matter if it's September or December, that is a huge shift in the commentary from these same people. >> Well, just the fact that they're speaking specifically about September or December, there's nothing that they're talking about with November and the election plays a role in that as well, with a fed that wants to seem or come off as apolitical as possible here. Historically, that has been the case. Of course, this is a different environment, as they all are for the fed to navigate through here. All right. Thanks so much, Josh for joining us on that chewy shares. We're also tracking that this morning. Chewy shares surging this morning after Keith Gill, known as roaring Kitty, disclosed a 6.6% stake in the stock. This comes after Gill posted a vague picture of a dog to his X account last week, which sent shares of chewy to a one year high. All right, Josh, stick around with us for this one, why don't you? Because this has a lot. And I mean, even the SEC filing was perhaps unlike any we've ever seen before at this juncture. >> Yeah. So he filed. He had an SEC filing because he bought more than 5% of Chewy's outstanding shares. Right. 6.6. And really there wasn't much in this filing, Brad, other than Keith Gill, decided to add a little checkbox for himself to tell us if he identifies as a cat or not. For reference, you can see on your screen there he identified himself as not a cat, not a cat. So that was sort of the highlight of how the filing works. Obviously, this is I think, broader takeaways here. One, there was actually an SEC filing, this time with his name on it, saying that he bought a large amount of chewy shares. That is not something you have seen with a lot of the GameStop transactions. He's been making, right. It's sort of been vague screenshots that go up on a Reddit that has been linked to him, but there was kind of discussion when we think back to the GameStop rally over the last month and a half, is this really Keith Gill? Is he the one on the roaring Kitty account? Is he the one on his Reddit account? This is clearly Keith Gill because it's an SEC filing. He definitely bought the shares. Why he bought the shares I think is up to anyone's guess at this point. It is interesting to me. I think, and important to point out, chewy is a much different company than GameStop. Yeah, chewy has an actual potential reemerging growth story there, and they posted a positive profit in their most recent quarter. Like it's just a different company than GameStop. It's not really a meme stock like. Yes, their founder, Ryan Cohen, is, of course, the CEO of GameStop. And that's kind of your meme stock connection. But Ryan Cohen is not on the board. He does not have any public facing involvement with chewy. So just sort of speculating on why this would be the target. It becomes a little bit harder, I think, to put the pieces together, at least for me. >> Well, there's an indication too, that with GameStop the first time around, he did kind of suss out something that the rest of the street was missing this time around. That's not necessarily clear. So maybe a diversification of the assets there. >> Josh, maybe he just likes the stock, right? Maybe he likes he just liked GameStop stock. Maybe he just likes chewy stock. >> Maybe he just likes chewy. But having said that, he's also got a lot on his plate right now because Keith Gill also got hit with a class action lawsuit. Josh Tell me what we know at this point about this lawsuit over alleged kind of pump and dumping of the GME stock. >> Yeah. So it's a class action lawsuit from someone that says they were impacted by the, quote, pump and dump of GameStop and essentially it alleges things that you would think it would allege of Keith Gill over the last month and a half, it alleges that he was involved in a sexually potentially manipulating the market. He knows that he has power over what GameStop stock or what he can do to GameStop stock. And it goes through a long list. It's a 40 page filing that goes through all the different times that Keith Gill has posted. The market reaction, and it does get, again, deeply into other sources, citing that he might be able to manipulate the market. This is something that people have been speculating about since Keith Gill reemerged. Was that eventually a filing like this or a lawsuit could come? So interesting to see that come should know. GameStop shares dropped about 7% in pre-market trading as this sort of started circulating. And so I think the broader question as we come out of this is, for one, it's just a lawsuit filing for now, right? We don't know much more than that. He has not publicly responded to it. But will it take the meme crowd either away from Keith Gill or more toward Keith Gill as real action starts to come against him? I think is the interesting question to watch moving forward is, are people going to say, oh, well, I don't really know what's going on here. I want to back away. Or are the hodlers really into supporting Keith Gill, and do they sort of pile in to support him in this effort? I think is probably the most interesting thing to watch over the next couple of days with these shares. >> And if history tells us anything, it's that we're going to see more of the latter there. Josh, it sounds like thank you so much for joining us and sticking around. We really appreciate it. Our very own Josh Schaffer now Boeing announcing it will buy spirit AeroSystems in a $4.7 billion deal. That's in an effort to improve quality and safety, according to the company. Now this comes as U.S. prosecutors are reportedly seeking a guilty plea from Boeing over allegedly misleading a federal regulator about the 737 Max planes that were involved in those two fatal crashes, according to several reports. For more on this, we're joined by Mike Boyd Boyd Group international president. We're also joined by Andy Pasztor, former aerospace reporter for the Wall Street Journal. Thank you both so much for joining us this morning, Mike. I want to start with you to just get some context here for our viewers. What do we know about this agreement from Boeing to buy the fuselage maker spirit AeroSystems here? And what do we know about the potential impact that could have on Boeing in the stock price? >> Well, I think it's a diversion. Number one, Boeing is having a hard enough time handling their own own production. Buying back spirit is a guarantee of nothing other than Boeing will be managing it. There has to be more than that. Again, you know, to charge Boeing with criminal malfeasance by the government is sort of like a fire alarm company suing a building for having had a fire. We're in a situation here where spirit is spirit and there's no guarantee that Boeing will be able to manage it any better than they can manage their own operations. >> Andy, I want to get your read in on this situation. I mean, especially as we're and have been tracking spirit AeroSystems with direct correlation to this acquisition and what we were anticipating from Boeing and Airbus as well, which also announced that they were purchasing the division of Spirit. At least that has a little bit more manufacturing for its own aircraft. >> So I think the important thing to keep in mind is, first of all, this is a this is a reversion to some policies that Boeing had many years ago where all of this work would have been kept in house. So they basically reversed course in that way. But I'd like to talk a little bit about this potential criminal, plea plea agreement. It's really a slap on the wrist for Boeing. It's a minuscule fine of about 250 million, which, of course is almost is a pittance for a company that has spent billions and billions trying to, make changes and recoup from the two crashes. And it's important also to understand that the families and the victims, the victims of the families of the victims and their lawyers have been demanding much harsher action from the from the Justice Department, larger fines, criminal proceedings against individual Boeing executives. The reason that isn't happening, and this hasn't been talked about very much, the reason that isn't happening is because of the chaos, the chaotic days of the end of the Trump administration, the agreement that Boeing signed with the Justice Department in 2021 essentially poisoned the well for any strong, forceful action by the Justice Department in a in a very clear break from Justice Department practices over the years, the Justice Department said it found no evidence specifically that that senior executives were involved in any of the potential fraud related to the to the to the max design. The justice Department almost never does that. They simply don't charge individuals. They don't explicitly say that there's no evidence against anyone, because someone walks in with a box of documents the day after. Of course, the whole question becomes becomes much different. So I think that this is a slap on the wrist. It's an almost a symbolic punishment. Boeing has been immune to such symbolic punishments over the years, but the reason, I think that the Justice Department isn't being more forceful has a lot to do with the fact that they were locked into a certain legal position by the Trump administration years ago in 2021, and they simply can't go back and essentially relitigate and try to create a new criminal case from from those facts. >> So Andy, really quickly, what does a potential Trump reelection mean for Boeing's future? >> I don't think it has any effect at all. This agreement, if it comes to pass, will be a done deal in a matter of days or maybe a week or two. The it'll have to be approved by a judge. The families of the victims will complain vociferously, but by, the middle of the summer, late in the summer, this will be a moot point. The Trump administration won't be able to legally, intervene and try to change any of these, issues. The Trump administration, if there is one, will be able to make major decisions about regulating the company, about overseeing its production, about what happens on the production line and so on. But in terms of this legal settlement relating to the previous crashes, I don't think that the Trump administration will be involved whatsoever. >> Mike, what do you need to see from Boeing in order to believe that there's been a significant cultural shift internally at the company? >> Well, I think after this deal comes down, probably Calhoun will see the front door. He should have been kicked out the door before him. He is responsible for this. Hopefully we will see a improvement at the FAA. They're responsible for the oversight. And they they failed before the max. Now they failed since the max. But I think the big thing is there'll be a symbolic, basically kicking him through the goalposts of Boeing and getting rid of Calhoun, who they replace him with. I don't know, but Boeing can't sit any longer like this, acting like they're doing things when they're not going forward. I think Boeing will have to have a totally different management. And I do think this legal activity will probably force the rubber stamp board to do something. >> I want to stay with you here, Mike. Obviously there's been a lot of discussion about any potential new CEO to come in at Boeing, is there a name that you have not heard discussed that you think potentially has a chance of getting that seat or would be open to it, given so much volatility that that executive would be inheriting? >> It's a very tight what they should hire is somebody who's very tight, who knows some engineering knows some of it, but also knows how to re re rebuild a company. I mean, the problem with Boeing is they inherited people from McDonnell Douglas who didn't know anything. They inherited a whole bunch of people from GE, which which were really good at tearing companies down rather than building them. So I think there's going to be a very hard thing to find somebody. I think there's someone out there. I don't have a name, but it has to be somebody who wants to go in there and not be a rubber stamp, and does understand that Boeing needs a whole new product line. In five years, they're going to be in a world of hurt because they haven't invested. That's what we really need. >> Mike, Andy, great to see you. Thanks so much for joining us this morning. Mike Boyd Boyd Group international president. And Andy Pastore, who is the former aerospace reporter for The Wall Street Journal, great to see you. Thank you. Thanks. We're just getting started here on the morning brief coming up Nvidia getting a price target hike from Morgan Stanley. We've got some top trending tickers next. Plus France's far right leading the first round of elections. What this means for the markets internationally later on in the show. We've got all this and much more. You're watching Yahoo Finance, Morning Brief. Morgan Stanley hiking its price target on Nvidia to $144. From $116. And reaffirming their overweight rating, saying it has the most compelling narrative in the AI and semiconductor space. Here There, you're taking a look at the rating, the price target and the logo on screen. They say they're not pounding the table at these levels. Given the sharp appreciation since the last earnings report. But as they transition ultimately from H100 to H 200. And then Blackwell visited, visibility and backlog will improve materially. They expect writing in this note yeah, it's interesting because I've been speaking with some analysts about the Blackwell chip for another piece that I'm working on, and there's not transparency from Nvidia about the cost of each individual chip on each generation. >> But the estimate for Blackwell chip is in the neighborhood of 35 to over $50,000 per individual chip, and each customer is going to be buying a heck of a lot more than one of those chips. And it's all profit margins for Nvidia. They're looking at over 75% on the margins here. For that product. So when you think about the fundamentals like that, it's difficult to have an argument against this stock. Having said that, I watched a powerful TikTok this weekend that reminded me to always look at the risk for every stock story. So I thought I needed to work that into my own coverage here at Yahoo Finance. The risks here, right, that the AI chip purchasing could be cyclical, that this could be a one time thing, and that all these companies investing in AI could decide, actually, we don't really know what to do with this. So we're going to taper down our investments and just stick with the chips. We already have, see how they work, and then come back to this narrative later. That could hinder Nvidia's growth moving forward. Also, big potential risk here is the geopolitical volatility that we're seeing in the South China Sea. If we do see any type of invasion of Taiwan, that is where TSMC is located. That is the manufacturer of all of these chips. That would be a huge headwind, not just for Nvidia, but for all of the chip makers in the space, and could be a huge headwind for the chip makers if that geopolitical risk, which is very difficult obviously to price in, did come to fruition. So those are some risks to come. Despite this call on Nvidia here. Now shares of Chinese EV makers are on the move this morning. We've got Nio, Xpeng and Li Auto moving to the upside after the company reported better than expected delivery numbers. The trio delivered about 196,000 vehicles in the second quarter. That is up about 47% year over year and up from the 132,000 cars delivered in the first quarter of the year. You can see all those names here. Moving to the upside. But Brad, it's interesting when you talk about these deliveries because we're also going to be getting Tesla deliveries here tomorrow. And I've been getting a lot of notes in from analysts saying that the next six weeks to come are a huge potential catalyst for Tesla stock. You've got their earnings coming out in a month here, which is crazy. We just wrapped up earnings. We're already rearing back in. Yeah And we've got those delivery numbers here as well. And then of course you've got consistent commentary from Elon Musk which tends to move the stock. So a lot of movement in the EV space. And then you have the tariffs in the background here coming from not only the U.S. but also Europe. The impact that that could have on these Chinese EV makers. Obviously not having that big of an impact here on the day, given this news about the delivery numbers. Brad. >> Yeah, and for the names that are on the screen right now and Nio, Xpeng and Li Auto, of course this is a read into the all important Asia-Pacific market where Tesla is trying to grow its own positioning. And so it will be easy or interesting to see where the numbers overall come in. For Tesla. Of course, if we get any breakout on Cybertruck, we probably won't. But hopefully we start to at this juncture because of the way that it's been broken out before, where you get the three in the Y, which are really the lion's share of production and deliveries. Plus, then the S and the X, which are, you know, at this point, trimming continuing to move lower. But then once you kind of factor in the Cybertruck and the deliveries, I've seen just a wave of ugly cybertrucks on the road, whether that be in the decals that people are putting on them or just in the clunkiness of them on the roads, but all these things considered, it'll be interesting to see if they do break out Cybertruck officially, since recalls are really the only way that we know how many they've been able to put into the market. That aside, Nio has had a stinker of a year. When you look at the stock price, it's down by about 50% year to date. So yeah, a pop here this morning. But ultimately there's still a lot of road to be proven for each of these companies that you're looking at on the screen. >> Don't buy Brad a robotaxi. That's my takeaway. No no gift of I would I would ride in a robotaxi. >> You're like, if not burst but I would I would ride in it. At least once I would see. Let's also talk about LA France, French markets. They're ticking higher here. This after the far right winning the first round of the country's snap elections, but failing to secure an absolute majority, which eased investors concerns about an outright victory. To discuss. We've got Yahoo Finance's very own Akiko Fujita Mon Amie all you haha good morning to you Brad. >> Yeah the Cac40 index is pushing higher but it's paring back its gains after jumping nearly 3% in the first minutes of trade. That initial investor relief, that far right leader Marine Le Pen's National Rally failed to gain an outright majority in this first round. Now turning to caution with that second round of these parliamentary elections coming up this coming Sunday, President Emmanuel Macron called snap elections last month, saying France needed in his words, a moment of political clarification after far right candidates made huge gains across Europe and European parliamentary elections. That turned out to be a huge miscalculation. Take a look at the results coming through. The far right took 33.1% of the initial vote. The left wing New Popular Front captured roughly 28, leaving Macron's centrist alliance with just 20.7. Voter concerns in France are going to sound very familiar to Americans here. Immigration and inflation the high cost of living really key concerns here. The National Rally putting a staunchly anti-immigrant message front and center. And that really resonated with the voters there this morning. Both leftist and centrist parties are scrambling to prevent the far right party from gaining an outright majority in the National Assembly. The parties have until Tuesday to pull candidates off the ballot to try and consolidate some of those votes. For investors, there are serious concerns that a government led by the far right or the left will lead to more spending in the way of fiscal policy, adding to a growing budget deficit. There's also concerns about the long term future of the euro. Now we have seen the euro edge slightly higher, although it is still weaker than where it was before those snap elections were called the best case scenario for markets, according to most analysts right now, a hung parliament that would not necessarily lead to significant policy accomplishments, but pretty much the status quo. But of course, we've still got another round to go and we'll be talking about that next Sunday, guys. >> All right. Akiko, thank you so much as always for joining us on that. We really appreciate it. It's very interesting, given what we're seeing in this election. We're going to talk a little bit later in our show about the likelihood of Macron dropping out in order to consolidate those votes here. And as Akiko was mentioning, we did see some movement in the CCaC overnight to the upside, Le Pen not doing as well as anticipated, but cooling off a little bit this morning as we head into the bell here in the States, just seconds away from the opening bell, you still do have pretty much an action packed week, even though it's holiday abbreviated, fed Chair Jerome Powell going to be speaking in Portugal. >> Fed president of New York John Williams, also in Portugal. So a little Euro trip for both of them here. There you're taking a look at the NYSE and the Nasdaq. We've got bells folks. All right. Toga ringing the opening bell at the NYSE ticker symbol toga. Toga. And then you've also got break through t 1d. Looks like they're over at the Nasdaq. Great group of folks that you see opening the opening the bell in midtown Manhattan. All right, that does it. We're underway here as we start the third quarter of 2020 for the second half of 2024, I might add, as well, taking a look at the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, you're seeing gains across the board to begin things. All right. Happy face on that one. Dow is up by about a quarter of a percent. You're also seeing the S&P 500 up by about 2/10 of a percent. The Nasdaq Composite starting off on a positive note. It's up by about 2/10 of a percent as well. >> It is. And it's interesting given that I want to pour some cold water on the optimism here. Fewer than half of the major markets rose as the share of stocks trading above their 200 day moving average fell in the month of June. So definitely some question marks remaining here about the consolidation that we are seeing. Let's get to it with Yahoo Finance's very own Jared Blikre on what is moving markets so far after that opening bell about a minute ago Jared what do you have for us. >> Yes we have a bullish start to the new quarter and this is as expected. I've been running seasonality numbers over the last couple of weeks. We've been sharing them writing about it in tomorrow's morning. Excuse me. In tomorrow's morning brief. Excuse me. In fact, we've been up nine of the last ten weeks in stocks. So let me just show you what Ryan Detrick has prepared for us. This is his own seasonality studies. But a lot of these are basically saying the same thing. S&P 500 up double digits at the midpoint of the year. Full year has never been lower. And it's up 25.1% on average rest of the year, up average of 7.7. Nearly 83% of the time. Are they positive? So this just goes to show you that what we're seeing right now probably going to continue. But not necessarily throughout the entire period. I do see some weakness potentially in August, September and October. But let's get back to the markets now. I did want to check on on the sector action. Excuse me. Tech was an early leader, but it is in the red right now. Utilities is leading the pack and I got to check in on crypto. Excuse me guys, Bitcoin is up 2.3% and we can see there you go. Just about at the flat line. >> All right Jared thank you so much for joining us. We really appreciate it. And interesting again to see not only the movements in Bitcoin, but some of the broader market action that we are seeing as we kick off the start of this year. As I said, we are just kicking off the first trading day of the second half of this year. We're going to be speaking with a strategist on what you can expect for the rest of the year after this break, but for now, we are looking at gains, as Jared was mentioning across your screen, the S&P actually coming back off of its highs of the day from the premarket here, but still up about 3/10 of a percent. The tech heavy Nasdaq up about a quarter of a percent. Stick with us. Markets are edging higher to kick off the second half of the year. That is, after an AI fueled rally in the first half, driving two thirds of market gains. To discuss what we might see for the second half of this year, we've got Jeffrey Kleintop. He's Charles Schwab's chief global investment strategist and managing director. Jeffrey, thanks so much for being here. Look, I feel like we've had this question mark about consolidation and valuations for quite some time now. At what point do you see that question mark becoming a real risk to this market rally? >> You know, we've been fans of AI and AI stocks for quite a while now. But we're we're tempering that enthusiasm actually looking for leadership from sectors like financials and energy. And materials. In the second half of the year, you know, a very unique thing happened in the second quarter that only happened five times in the last 30 years. And that's the indexes were up on average. But the average stock was down for the S&P 500. The index was up 4.3% in Q2, but the average stock in the S&P 500 was down 2.8. And that was true around the world. We could even see it in the all country world index from MSCI. That was down. The average stock was down 1.7% in Q2, even though the overall benchmark itself was up 2.4. And you're right, it's all about AI. And so that increasing concentration of performance in Q2 is something we have not seen in a long time. So yes, AI's outperform for a while, but it's the only thing seemingly outperforming in Q2. And I think the risks to the market in Q3 tied to that very narrow leadership, suggests that investors should look for some diversification out of those handful of stocks. >> When can investors know that it's the right time to begin taking profits in their AI trade? >> Well, when they can see that there are opportunities elsewhere, there are a number of other parts of the market that are much more attractively valued and have increasing earnings momentum. You know, one of the things that we've seen over the last 4 or 5 quarters is that AI stocks have driven almost all the earnings gains. In fact, the average stock has seen earnings losses in the last four quarters on a year over year growth basis. That changes now. We're actually starting to see here in the third quarter earnings even outside the US, the earnings for the Euro 600 index or the Euro Stoxx 600 index are expected to grow faster than those in the S&P 500 this quarter. So you're finally starting to see earnings growth that exceeds that of the US, exceeds that of the tech sector outside of that. And I think that's the turning point here in terms of relative performance. >> Jeffrey, I also want to talk to you about what we're seeing in terms of global elections. Obviously, following the news of Marine Le Pen's success overnight in France. But also we are seeing this global push towards more of a populist policy regime. To what extent could that reverse some of the inflation progress that global central banks have made, given some of the policies that do come with populism? >> It's a great point. When we talk about widespread tariffs, and it's not just the US that's talking about increasing tariffs. Europe has talked about that. Japan, many countries, Canada's are focusing on that. So when we have multiple barriers to trade and increasing tariffs around the world, well that certainly does risk higher inflation. Also a slowdown in the increasing momentum in manufacturing. You know, manufacturing was in recession last year. We finally seen a recovery there that's helped lift economies like Germany out of recession. But the concern is that export growth then begins to weaken for manufactured firms. So the recovery we've seen and that the decline in inflation is at risk from populist policies. We'll have to see how much they actually take root. Should these populists win, French will be an interesting referendum on that. Of course, we've had elections in India and Mexico where we did see populists win and stocks sold off 6% when they reopened. It will be very interesting to see what happens on Sunday. And then, of course, on July 4th in the UK when we've got maybe the, the election going the other way towards the Labor Party. >> You know, Jeffrey, as we think about the back half of this year, I mean, it really does come back to what the pathway of inflation looks like, where employment situation holds up and the dead in the in the Fed's dual mandate here. All that considered, it's really just trying to price in when we see some interest rate cuts for the fed. You know how are you looking through their calculus and what they've been signaling thus far. >> We all year have been penciling in about two rate cuts from the fed. So we were way behind when the market was thinking there was going to be six. And now we're thinking that, you know, we're a bit ahead of the game as the market's pondering whether there'll be any at all. I still think we're going to see the moderation inflation necessary to get the fed to those 1 or 2 rate cuts later this year. That should begin to weaken the dollar, which is something that should help international investors or US based investors investing internationally. Finally, see some of those gains translated back into dollars. Japan's stock market's up like 18. This year, but in dollars only about 6. So getting that stabilization in the currency could be really important in the second half. >> Jeffrey Kleintop Charles Schwab, Chief Global investment Strategist and Managing Director Jeffrey Always, a pleasure to grab some time with you. >> Thanks for having me. >> Thanks. We've got all your markets action ahead. Stay tuned. You're watching morning Brief. >> Oil prices are moving higher this morning. You can see on your screen here WTI crude and Brant both moving to the upside. This comes amid a resurgence of geopolitical risks globally and increased demand driven by summer driving. Joining us to discuss his call on the price of oil is Andy Lipow, Lipow Oil Associates. President, president Andy, thank you so much for being here. This morning. Talk to me about your call for the price of oil and what you think will get us there by the end of this year. >> Well, good morning and thank you for having me. I think the biggest fear in the market is the geopolitical tensions that we're seeing in the Middle East, especially as Israel is reducing its fighting over in the Gaza area, moving troops to the northern border with Lebanon and anticipation of more violence with Hezbollah, which ultimately could bring Iran directly into the conflict. And that's the oil market's concern, because that could spread to interrupting supplies throughout the Persian Gulf region. So between that, as well as increasing demand from now through the end of the year, I'm expecting to see Brant crude oil prices drift up to about $90 a barrel. >> Andy, you know, one of my, kind of sub things to watch for the rest of this year, which, you know, I had to put on the back burner and save for this conversation, fortunately, was what OPEC may do on the supply side towards the end of this year. What are you anticipating the actions could be for how they might actually spur or put even more supply into the system , and what that would mean more broadly? >> Well, in early June, Opec+ surprised the market in the sense that not only did they extend their production cuts through the end of September, but they did decide to start reducing those production cuts beginning in October, and those voluntary production cuts of course, were led by Saudi Arabia and Russia. It's easy to see that Opec+ has surprised the market before. They could do it once again, if crude oil prices were to remain in the $80 per barrel range, they could extend those voluntary production cuts through the end of the year. But the initial announcement from Opec+ was, reacted quite bearishly with the oil market as they saw more supply coming on to the market sooner than expected. >> Andy, how does the presidential election play into your outlook here? >> Because there are many who come on our show to argue that the president will do whatever he can to keep the price of oil down heading into November 5th. >> Well, the Biden administration has certainly taken a number of steps to do that, whether it's releasing Strategic Petroleum Reserve crude oil last year or this year, recently releasing gasoline in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the northeast, I think post the election, it's difficult for either administration to control the world oil market. The best they can do is through our foreign policy of exporting additional quantities of energy. It allows us to have more of an influence in those markets. But one can see with the geopolitical tensions in the middle East, the United States influence is really limited. >> Well, I want to end by going global with you here, Andy. I know that there is a lot of risk globally here. You've got Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries. You've also got the potential growth story in China. You also have the tensions in the Middle East. Which of those seems to be the biggest geopolitical risk in terms of the potential impact on crude moving forward here? >> I certainly think that it's in the Mideast. What we've seen from Russia and Ukraine is that over time, Russia has been able to skirt the sanctions. And in addition, you know, the China growth story, you know, continues to dampen enthusiasm in the oil market. We just saw that China PMI was down to 49.5, last month, which is the lowest it had been in the last five months. So of course that is always dampening the enthusiasm on oil prices. >> Andy Lipow, who is the Lipow Oil Associates President. Andy, thanks so much for taking the time here this morning. >> Thanks for having me. >> Certainly, everyone. We've got much more coming up on the morning brief. Stay tuned. Democrats facing what could be a brewing crisis here. The political party is torn over whether President Biden can take on former President Donald Trump. In November, the first debate of the 2024 election cycle kicked off last week. Biden's performance left voters increasingly concerned around his age, raising questions as to whether or not he should drop out of the presidential race and how Democrats might replace him for more on what this could mean for markets, we've got Brian Gardner, who is the Stifel chief. Washington policy policy strategist. Brian, great to have you here with us. Okay, so just the likelihood that we would see any replacement at this juncture, especially considering how much they were continuing to push out some of the campaign and rally and waffle House videos over the weekend. Yeah. >> So it's less than 50 over 50 that that the president would drop off the ticket, but it clearly is not zero. I have it around 40, clearly going through the weekend, there was pushback from the inner circle from the Biden family. So the tea leaves right now suggest that he's not going to drop off at the same time, anybody who watched Thursday night knows that there are challenges for the president going forward and for the party, more broadly. So you can't dismiss the idea that there will be an effort to persuade him to drop off. The idea that he would be pushed out is very, very low, almost zero. But that he could be persuaded, to, to step aside. You know, it's not zero, but, you know, it's it doesn't look like we're heading in that direction. >> Do you think that he should, Brian? >> You know, it's tough for me to say, you know, without sounding Partizan. But, look, you know, I think people can look at at the debate the other night, especially people who have situations with friends and family who are older, in their older years. And you see how age progresses. And so the question is not just can the president go up against Donald Trump in the upcoming campaign? How effectively can he serve and be president in another term? That's a very serious question right now, I think to an objective observer who watched Thursday night, the answer is probably no. And so I you know, it's not for me to say because I'm not part of the Biden family, but they they need to have a very serious conversation right now. >> I also want to get your take, Brian, on a new CBS news poll showing that an increasing number of voters do not think Biden should be running. >> After that debate, over 70% of them saying to your point that he does not have the cognitive health to be the next president of the United States. That is up from 65% previously. They're given that polling. I am curious, from your perspective, if Biden were to drop out of this race, how does that impact who could potentially get into the white House next year? Right. It looks like increasingly, voters are not thrilled with the idea of Biden being in the white House. Does that necessarily mean that they would be thrilled with whoever else goes up against Trump? >> That's a great question, and it probably gets you back to the answer of why he probably stays in, because the selection process to for Democrats to pick a replacement could be disruptive, chaotic, fractured. The party, you know, you start with his vice president who has her own, political weaknesses, does not poll particularly well if you go beyond her to other Democrats. Around the country, who may not have a strong base or a national base of support, this is a very complicated process. Once the if President Biden were to step aside. And so, you know, I think there are probably people, you know, within upper echelons of the Democratic Party who may not be happy with how things went on Thursday night. But they also know that the alternative isn't all that great. So, yeah, and there would be a conversation of the vice president of Gavin Newsom of Gretchen Whitmer, a host of other Democrats getting from where we are now to replacing Biden is not an easy task. >> How has the questions and commentary from your peers at Stifel, from your clients evolved since post-debate? >> I imagine the types of questions you were getting right after the debate. How has that conversation changed through to today? >> You know, I think they reflect what's been going on in in the broader population, just a lot of surprise to a degree of shock. At the performance on Thursday night, I think there's a reflection that the odds of a Trump victory have gone up. We were kind of evolving slowly in that direction over several months with with investors becoming, more confident or believing that Trump was more likely to win, that jumped up, after after Thursday night, but I think those conversations generally are are one you know, what sectors do? Well, how does the market react? But also just the general sense that reflects everything you've heard about what you guys have been talking about on your shows and what you've read in the media? >> Is there a leading candidate you believe could replace Biden? >> I think you have to start with the vice president, you know, she would she would have a big but not insurmountable advantage. She would she, she would inherit the Biden campaign, the Biden fundraising apparatus. I think the president himself would probably lean into her candidacy a little bit, for two reasons, one, to validate his selection of her back in 2020, and two, he's been a vice president. I think he's very sympathetic to what Kamala Harris goes through every day, it's not easy being vice president. You have the president's staff kind of carping at you all the time, so I think you start there, after that, then then I think it's an open very open field. >> All right, Brian, we're going to have to leave it there. Thank you. So much for joining us this morning. That was Brian Gardner. He's Stifel's chief Washington policy strategist. Now coming up, we're going to have some breaking manufacturing data from the ISM at the top of the 10 a.m. hour. We're going to dive into those fresh numbers on catalyst next. >> It's 10 a.m. here in New York City. >> I'm Madison Mills alongside Brad Smith this morning. Thanks for joining me at the top of the hour here. We're going to dive into the catalysts that are moving markets today. >> We're kicking off a new month quarter and half with a fresh read on the economy ism manufacturing data. Breaking right now. We'll dive into the latest data in just a second. >> And markets in the first half were led higher by the eye trade . We're going to discuss the catalyst to watch in the second half of the year, plus uncertainty in Europe. >> France's far right party led the first round of parliamentary elections. We'll discuss what it means and why it matters for investors globally. >> That's right. >> But first we're going to get to the breaking news we have here, which is manufacturing data from ISM coming in at 48.5 versus the 49.1 that investors were anticipating. The ISM manufacturing prices paid the lowest of the year here, coming in lower than previously. The previous low came in in March of this year. Actually the previous high rather came in in March of this year. So seeing continued weakness here also taking a look at some of the data that could play into some of the jobs data we get later this week, we saw employment falling to 49.3 versus 51.1. Now we did see new orders rising to 49.3 versus 45.4. So seeing a little bit of a mixed picture when you look at that, prices paid also fell to 52.1 versus 57. That is the lowest reading since December. So perhaps a little bit of cooling there. Really interesting though Brad, to see that employment number falling to 49.3 versus 51.1. Obviously that's not a huge amount of coolness, but that could be enough to fuel some of the data that we're expecting later this week when we get that key jobs report. >> Yeah. Net net, this is a continuation of the contraction that we've seen. You got a comment here from Timothy Fiore, who is the chair of the Institute for Supply Management ISM and essentially saying U.S. manufacturing activity continued in contraction at the close of the second quarter, demand was weak. Again, output declined, inputs stayed accommodative. Now demand slowing was reflected by a few things, one of them being new orders index improving to marginal contraction, new export orders index returning to contraction and then the backlog of orders. He also notes dropping into stronger contraction territory. So all this considered output that remained in decline actually declined compared to May. I should say, combined 3.5% point downward impact on the manufacturing PMI calculation here. >> And it looks like we're seeing gains across the major indices, including the Nasdaq flipping back into positive territory after getting pushed to the downside a little bit earlier. Those stocks coming here after we got that ISM data. Now the big question could markets be prone to a correction in the coming months after the record breaking gains that we saw in the first half of this year? Joining us to discuss exactly that we've got Irene Tunkel, BCA research chief, U.S. equity strategist with us here at the stools. Irene, thanks so much for coming in. My pleasure. >> Thank you for having me. Yeah. >> Of course. So we just got this data in coming in a little bit cooler than anticipated, seeing some positive reaction, a little bit of action in the yield space here. But as Brad was mentioning, this is perhaps what was sort of anticipated. This is part of the narrative we've been seeing. What do you make of the data? >> Well, I think that for now it appears that the bad news appears to be good news. And the reason for that the fed put is alive. So the market is thinking, well, you know, economic growth is slowing, but it's slowing gently. And so it creates conditions for the fed to cut interest rates. And no one is at the moment expecting a hard landing. I'm probably not in that camp. But if you think about what investors or majority of investors think, they think it's a gentle slowdown and then rates will go down. And you know, the party can continue. >> When are you anticipating that that first cut and hopefully yes, we all want the party to continue. But when do you anticipate that first cut? >> Well, it's a well, I would think that the end of the year is most likely simply because of the political uncertainty. I don't think that the fed would like to lose this perception of its independence, but I think that what is important is whether the fed is, reactive or proactive. If by the time that the fed cuts rates, economic data deteriorates to the point that it's very hard to deny that the US economy is going into a recession and the fed is responding by cutting rates, I do not think it will help equity markets simply because it will indicate that, well, we are already in a recession. Nothing can help, you know, help equities at this point. However, if they cut rates and economy is still strong, perhaps slowing slowing gently, but it's still strong. But they managed to cut rates, proactively, preemptively. I think that will prolong, you know, the strong performance of the market. >> Does it matter as much what the Federal Reserve does? >> Obviously it matters. But given the concentration of this rally being really driven by I driving two thirds of the market rally, so far this year, if people keep buying chips, does it matter what the fed does, I think to a degree, I would argue that it may not matter, you know, when, the fed exactly cuts interest rates, but it matters what they say and what is the perception of the market about the trajectory of interest rates. And we're talking about the first rate cut, but perhaps we need to think about the longer sort of time frame for rate cuts. And I think it will matter. And that's why everyone is listening to every single, member of the you know, Federal Open Market Committee so intently in terms of the concentration of the market, this rally is a little bit long in the teeth. And I would argue that the iterate is kind of in a bubble that the difficult part of it. And there is all the caveat bubbles can last for a while, and they're very hard to time. And so this party could continue again just simply because there are still lots of money chasing these amazing stocks, but to my mind, what I see in the market, I would say that this rally is getting a little bit tired. If you look at equal weighted S&P 500, it hasn't really budged since March. And so you cannot really count on just a few stocks to carry the market much further. I think it's time to take profits. If it isn't. >> Yeah. If it is indeed a bubble then and some people are going to start to take profits to try and get ahead of that bubble bursting. >> What type of rotation do you think we might see? And also a reset of valuations too. >> Yes, the market is kind of richly valued. And again, you can say that, well, there is a bifurcation because there is the magnificent 5 or 6 or whatever. You basically qualify and they have and everyone else, but I think that even if you strip off, The Magnificent Five, the rest of the market is not as expensive, but they are not going to deliver. So much growth either. And so you really need this top stocks to perform and to justify the market. But they have gone up so much and it can be just profit taking. Just like we've seen a technical correction with Nvidia nothing really happened. But sometimes you just have to put profits on your books. >> Well and this morning Nvidia is down a little bit off of an upgrade. >> I mean it's just you know the start of the second half of the year maybe some worries about concentration. Having said that, where do you see the biggest opportunity for investors who do want to get in on AI but don't want to invest in companies that are perhaps overvalued? >> Well, I think that, you know, every new technology cycle goes from infrastructure and, you know, this overused word, you know, term picks and shovels, and then you move to applications and then you move to the real companies that are trying to adopt these new technologies for their new for their businesses. >> And I think that what we are, you know, focused a lot now is on companies that can use, you know, this generative AI to cut costs to improve their supply chains. And, you know, even Apple, you know, is a case in point. What they're doing is kind of going to make devices incrementally better. But it's evolutionary change, I think, where we need to look for the impact of AI and it may take longer, it may be more expensive. It's revolutionary. And that will be in, healthcare. It will be an aerospace and defense. It can be in fintech. So I think that the next phase of this transition of the generative AI transition is to look, where can we actually see, this new technology completely changing, you know, the playing field, field and the rules of the game. >> How concerned are you about those exact companies doing a one time investment into AI? And then stopping that CapEx or capping it, you mean the companies that are developing this revolutionary sort of changes the companies utilizing the AI, like a health care company for example? >> Yeah, I think that they will be investing in AI just to maintain. But I think it really will be you know, a big, shift forward to build out the infrastructure. And actually, it may be a little bit different than we expect because AI models are getting smaller and smaller and much more customized. So maybe you can use, you know, less powerful chips, maybe you can spend a little bit less on them. But I think that on the long term effect will be much more pronounced than what we see with The Magnificent Five, because, we're just talking about chatbot, but there is so much more to generative AI than chatbots. >> All right. We're gonna have to leave it there. >> Thank you so much. Thank you. >> Really appreciate you joining us here Irene Irene Junco thank you so much BCA Research's chief U.S. equity strategist, joining us in studio now coming up, Birkenstock getting an upgrade from UBS. We got some top trending tickers along with Birkenstock after the break. Metastock is under pressure this morning. Down over 2. Around 2% in the pre-market after the market opened here. The company accused by EU regulators of failing to comply with landmark antitrust rules over its recently introduced ad supported social networking service. Yahoo Finance's Dan Howley has the details for us. Dan >> That's right. >> This is a preliminary finding. So it doesn't necessarily mean anything is going to happen to meta at this point. But essentially what the European Commission is saying is that meta is in violation of the Digital Markets Act, which is basically that massive law in the EU that is supposed to kind of put the reins on some of these big tech companies, whether that's Apple, Microsoft, or in this case, meta. Now what the EU, European Commission, excuse me, is saying is that meta is violating the DMA by not abiding by a particular guideline in in reality, what they're saying is that meta is offering two different versions of its products, Facebook and Instagram. With two different, kind of rules that users have to follow. Either you can get meta, excuse me, Facebook or Instagram for free, and allow meta to hoover up your data, that's the kind of ad free, the ad version. Or you can get an ad free version, but you have to pay for it. Now, the European Commission says that's not the same product. Essentially, they're saying everybody has to offer a similar product, if users don't want to have their data hoovered up, in this case, meta says, well, look, we're offering a similar product. You just have to pay for it. And the European Commission says, no, that's completely different. Users shouldn't have to pay for it. They're also talking about, users, having their right to freely consent to having their data used. And so this is a big deal for meta because they thought that they were going to be abiding by the new, DMA rulings. Clearly the EC doesn't believe that. And so they could be on the hook for up to 10% of their global revenue. Now, that would be, billions of dollars in fines they have to pay more. So if the European Commission finds that they're repeat offenders, and it's not just meta that that the European Commission is going after, they're also going after Microsoft saying that they package their team software and gives them an unfair advantage. And Apple, over its app Store practices. And so, you know, this is just another example of the European Commission kind of bringing the hammer down on these big tech companies. And it's similar to what's happening in the US to a degree with antitrust, but obviously the, the European Commission making faster moves and more moves. >> All right, Dan, thank you so much for joining us. We really appreciate it. Moving over to France, Marine Le Pen's far right party wins the first round of France's legislative elections. The National Rally party clinching over 33% of votes with President Emmanuel Macron's party just above 20. That's according to data from the French interior ministry. French markets initially rallying on the results before pulling back a bit. So what does this mean for the broader market, both in Europe and globally moving forward? Joining us to discuss, we've got Gurpreet Garewal, Goldman Sachs Asset Management fixed income strategist. Joining me now, Gurpreet, thank you so much for being here with us. I want to talk about where we go from here . First there's this question about whether or not Macron could move to the sidelines here to consolidate the votes against the far right party to what extent do you anticipate that happening? >> Hi. First of all, thank you for having me on. And look, big picture from a fixed income perspective, we're focused on three things. First and foremost, it's really the direction of travel for fiscal policy and clarity of that is not going to come until the second round of the election. And one thing to look, at least in the immediate term, is to see how a French government bond auction goes. This week to gauge investor appetite after that, the focus is really on medium term budget plans and fiscal proposals submitted this autumn. The second key thing that we're really focused on and monitoring is any potential contagion to other markets. So far, that's been relatively limited. French issuers are a small part of the US investment grade market for example, relative to the European investment grade market , so that's helped limit contagion. The ECB also has tools at its disposal, like the Transmission Protection Instrument, that it could activate to address any unwarranted sovereign bond volatility. And the third key thing that we're focused on is really all of this pose any potential implications for the European Central Bank and its path to policy normalization? >> Well, talk to me about that, because there's this idea that we have started to see cooling inflation globally, that central banks have been doing the job when it comes to inflation. But populist policies do tend to be inflationary. To what extent is that a risk that the ECB needs to start really being concerned about? >> I think it's a great question. First of all, let's take stock of what you've seen happen in European inflation dynamics recently. The trends have actually been encouraging. You've seen that a lot of the start of the year price and wage adjustments may be behind us. Goods prices are in check. Rents are in check. Inflation expectations are anchored. But there are risks. Like you mentioned, you know, on one hand, if you have tightening in financial conditions related to political uncertainty, that could actually necessitate a more nourish dovish policy stance. Sorry, but on the other hand, even though investors may have become cautious on French assets, consumers are still actually very constructive on Europe as a tourism destination, so relatively constructive on its beaches and that could present upside risks to the inflation outlook, at least in the near term, through core services, inflation and tourism related categories like hotels, airfares and so forth. And so these complex dynamics really underscore the fact that the ECB is going to maintain its data dependent approach. >> Well, when you mentioned data dependent, I do of course, think of our Federal Reserve here in the United States. They love that phrase more than anything. It's interesting because on Friday we saw this kind of bear steepening in the U.S. in the Treasury space, and it's potentially indicative of action that could have been related to economic data we got from the Umich data on Friday. To what extent do you see the fixed income market in the United States continuing to be that data dependent moving forward and really moving off of every single piece of economic data that we're getting? And what does that tell you about how investors should be positioning around treasuries? Yeah. >> Look, I think investors are focused on all of the data because the fed has emphasized to us that their policy is going to be determined by the totality of data. And so it's really about forming that mosaic on the macro data front. What does things look like based on the latest inflation readings? What's happening on the jobs April and May inflation data moved in an encouraging direction. All eyes are on the jobs report this week. We're looking to see if the labor market is continuing to rebalance in a way that would alleviate wage pressures and therefore services inflation, inflation pressures, and therefore open the door to rate cuts in terms of like how investors should be positioned. We're actually cautiously constructive entering the second half of the year. Why are we constructive? Well, like I mentioned, disinflation progress is back on trend. Labor markets are still healthy. That supports consumer spending, a key determinant of growth in almost every advanced economy. Private sector balance sheets also look relatively healthy. Favorable market dynamics means that companies have been able to refinance if they want to, so why are we somewhat cautious? Well, because valuations are tight or extended. You see this with tight corporate bond spreads. And as you noticed at the outset, we have political uncertainty. And so against that backdrop we still like to position for attractive income in securitized credit. Corporate bonds and then also have some macro rates exposures to play divergence that you're seeing in central bank policies. >> All right Gurpreet, we're going to have to leave it there. But really appreciate you joining us. Thank you so much. That was Gurpreet Grewal at Goldman Sachs Asset Management fixed income strategist. Now Birkenstock shares are rising after UBS upgraded the stock to buy from neutral. You can see the stock is up over two and a quarter percentage points here, hiking its price target on the stock to $85 from $52. The firm saying the company is successfully executing its expansion strategy. Yahoo Finance's Jared Blikre joins us to discuss. And Jared I was just taking a look here at what's going on with the stock. It looks like Hedgeye risk Management also just raised the recommendation on Birkenstock from a sell up to hold. So interesting to see this amount of analyst movement on this stock. Why are we seeing all of this. >> Yeah. And it comes over a month after their last earnings report. So sometimes it takes a while for price action to get people interested and say well maybe there is something in that report that we like. So I think investors are focusing on a couple of things here. UBS in particular is noting their direct to consumer building out effort that has been going well. And he's also noting that there are a couple of overhangs that have been lifted or in the process of being lifted. One is that last year they got that incredible Barbie bump. And this year they are lapping that. So can they keep up that incredible growth? Well that can be tough to do on a short term basis. And then also the other thing is that they're saying guidance leaves little to little room for further upside. In other words, in other words, that the company has really met a lot of the guidance that they've expected and pronounced for themselves. So you put it all together. This price tag target, I believe it's a street high now, $85. City separately is reinstating a buy with a price target set to $65. And I should note too, there was a share sale by corporate insiders last week. The reports are that it was for tax purposes. It doesn't seem to have mattered. Sometimes people think insiders are selling, but not always the case there. So if we go to the Wi-Fi interactive, I thought we would chart this real quickly. And today you can see we are up 2.4. But let me put a max chart on because this stock came to market less than a year ago. Whereabouts? And you can see it's been a steady trend upwards. I just note that because Birkenstock is a new company coming to market, and a lot of these new issues in the IPO market have not done so well. But this is a company that's at least a price performance wise, has been able to capitalize on some of that earnings momentum. >> And it's an example of one of the companies that is clearly not an AI play at all. Right. >> Yeah I'm trying to think no, no I embedded there I hope no sourcing from you about an AI chips play when it comes to Birkenstock. >> So it does paint this idea that we hear a lot from guests into context, that stock picking is becoming increasingly important given the concentration, you know, rally real quick. >> If we could go back to the Wi-Fi interactive, I'm going to sort this the apparel heatmap by performance year to date. And you're going to see what a bifurcated market it is. You got winners and losers. And so congratulations. If you're in the winners camp Birkenstock is. >> And wow look at an F up over 100% year to date. Abercrombie and Fitch continuing to succeed there Jared thank you so much as always. Really appreciate your insights here. Now coming up, the 2024 presidential election cycle, just getting started at least kicking off following that debate here, we're going to dive into the policy themes that you need to watch next on catalysts. The 2024 election could be a key risk for markets. In the second half of this year. Just this summer, we got a packed schedule. Trump's sentencing in his New York hush money trial on July 11th. The Republican vice presidential selection coming up on July 15th. And we've got the second presidential debate set for September 10th. So how should investors be preparing for all of these key events? Joining us to discuss, we've got Lisa Thomas, TD Cowen's Deputy Head of Research. Lisa, thanks so much for being here. I know in your list of midcap ideas, here you have a section zeroing in on Washington policy for 2024. I'm curious from the perspective of you and your colleagues, which candidate could potentially fuel more gains in this mid-cap space, given the potential policies that they could be putting in following November 5th? >> That's a great question. But you know what I will say, Madison, is what we have been really focusing on are the names and on the themes that are really going to endure. Regardless of which party and which candidate takes the white House and takes Congress, because as you point to, there are a lot of catalysts between now and the election. There's going to be a tremendous amount of noise in the cycle, I get to use my favorite expression, which is this one goes to 11 on a scale of 1 to 10. So I would say, in fact, we're really, really focused on investments and on themes that are going to have that long cycle durability to withstand, you know, the whipsaw, regardless of who is in place. Because on those themes, we think, in fact, there is a tremendous amount of bipartisan agreement if you're talking about things like US-China decoupling, if you're looking at U.S. protectionism and industrial policy, and by the way, deficit spending, because despite the rhetoric that you might hear on both sides, what we think is that you are very unlikely to see lightning on defense spending at a time when we are seeing such geopolitical risk on so many fronts. So rather than really focusing on which party is going to, you know, be, I think the, the best driver for mid-cap stocks, we would argue there are a lot of great mid-cap opportunities, regardless of who's in the white House. >> So what is the thinking that investors should try to adopt heading into this busy cycle in order to not get spooked by the noise, as you call it? >> Yes. Look, again, I think it's really focusing on those long run themes. So if you're looking at industrial policy, certainly I is, you know, on everyone's mind and on everyone's lips and we're looking more and more at those second and third derivatives of AI use cases. But in the meantime, we're putting tremendous focus on AI infrastructure. What are all of those, you know, architectural enhancements and improvements that are needed to really fuel the AI use cases that everyone is looking to. So for example, we upgraded Credo technology, which is a mid-cap name in the space that is working on, enhancing speed in the data center, they had previously had a lot of customer concentration between Microsoft and Amazon, but that's broadened out a lot. And we think that investors are increasingly starting to embrace those kinds of infrastructural names. Digital bridge is another name that supports, hyperscaler data center operators with a portfolio of companies in that digital infrastructure space. We think increasingly by looking at names that are really tied to those long run themes, then you get to steer clear of the noise. You get to see what happens, just as we all are. Because certainly, you know, particularly coming out of last week's debate, the endless headlines, the endless noise, we don't think that you're going to win in investing by getting caught up their focus on what's going to matter regardless of who's in the white House, regardless of who's in Congress and what's going to matter with some real durability over the next several years. >> And I know that big names like Nvidia have obviously really ruled this AI surge. What smaller names should investors be taking a look at if they do want to play AI? But in the smaller and mid-cap space? >> Yeah. Again, we think that some of those names like credo, which we just upgraded or Digital Bridge are great ways to play, the data center. And we just had, our entire technology team out with, I think it was a 400 plus page report out of TD Cowen on, you know, the data center and all of the elements of data center investment that people should be focused on because, you know, whether it is looking to the power constraints, that are going to be driven by this huge surge in data center reliance or whether it's in the speed enablers and the data center architecture enablers such as Credo, or whether it's in looking at a broader portfolio of names around digital infrastructure, where you have an opportunity to be levered to a number of really high quality names through an investment in Digital Bridge, we think those are really, really good opportunities. They still have a lot of upside. You know, as you point to, you know, large cap stocks have really outperformed. And of course, it's been really a very small number of stocks within the large cap space. The magnificent Seven and even a smaller concentration within that that has outperformed. So we think the timing of this piece is great because investors really are taking a step back. Looking at Smith's, which are undervalued, are certainly seeing a near historic valuation gap versus large caps. And they're really asking whether this is an opportunity to broaden out, broaden out their portfolios and potentially broaden out the rally so that more folks in the market and more stocks in the market are participating in it. >> All right. >> We're going to have to leave it there. Lisa, thank you so much for joining us. That was Lisa Thomas, TD Cowen's deputy head of research. Still to come, President Biden considers his political future. How is Wall Street reacting to the latest from the presidential race? We'll cover that in more next. This is catalysts. >> From creating graphics cards for gaming to becoming one of the world's leading AI chip companies, it's safe to say Nvidia is officially one of the tech giants in 2023. The company generated nearly $27 billion in revenue, and its market cap is currently hovering at around $3 trillion. Let's take a closer look at what led to Nvidia's boom with Beyond the Ticker, where we dive into the company's biggest moments. Nvidia was founded on April 5th, 1993, by Jensen Huang, Chris Malachowsky, and Kurtis Priam with a vision to bring 3D graphics to the gaming industry. In 1997, Nvidia launched its first hit product, the envy three. It would later go on to sell a whopping 1 million units in its first four months of availability. On January 22nd, 1999, Nvidia went public via IPO at $12 per share, and in 2000, Microsoft chose Nvidia to develop the graphics hardware for the first Xbox console. Five years later, Microsoft's rival Sony chose Nvidia's hardware to power the PlayStation three. In 2010, Nvidia became the graphics chip supplier for auto maker Audi, and in 2015, the company launched its Nvidia drive chip for powering driver assistance technologies. In 2016, Nvidia kicked off its AI efforts with the launch of the DGX one. Two years later, the company debuted Nvidia RTX, the first GPU capable of real time ray tracing. That same year, Google announced it was using Nvidia's Tesla P4 graphics cards for its Google Cloud platform. In 2022, Nvidia debuted its H100 graphics chip for AI, which still stands as one of the world's most powerful chips for artificial intelligence apps. On June 5th, 2024, Nvidia eclipsed that $3 trillion mark, joining the ranks of mega companies Apple and Microsoft. The stock continues to surpass its all time highs over the past month and is currently trading well over $1,000 per share from a company of three engineers working on graphics cards to thousands of employees working on chips that will power the AI supercomputers of the future. Nvidia remains at the top of the tech industry. >> We've breaking news the Supreme Court ruling that former President Donald Trump has some immunity from criminal charges related to his attempts to reverse the 2020 election results. This partial backing of the former president would delay any trial related to the matter. Joining us with more, we've got Yahoo Finance's Rick Newman Rick, thanks so much for coming in on this breaking news. What do we know. >> Well we're still sorting this out. It's somewhat complicated as many of these opinions are. But the Supreme Court has said that the president does have absolute immunity from prosecution for official acts he conducts as president. But he has no immunity for unofficial acts. And the court is sending this case back to the trial court, where this all began. And part of what they will have to do at that trial court is determine what is an official act and what is an unofficial act. And just to remind everybody, this whole prosecution, this is one of the three federal prosecutions. Correction, two federal, two federal prosecutions of Donald Trump. This is the one in Washington, D.C, that is meant to determine whether he has culpability for the January 26th, 2021, riots at the US Capitol. So this I think what this means in terms of the election timing for this year is this is not going to get to the point where it starts to we get to a hearing actually determining whether Trump is guilty or not guilty, but that we are going to have hearings, based on trying to figure out which of these allegations constitute official acts, which Trump would be immune from prosecution for and which might be unofficial acts that Trump can be prosecuted for. So Trump is not off the hook here by any means, this is going back to the district court, and it looks as if at some point there will be a trial, but probably not before November. >> Yeah, I'm interested, Rick, in the difference between the wording here. The court ruling there is presidential immunity for official acts, not unofficial ones, as you mentioned. Just explain to me like a layperson what exactly that means and what that could mean for Donald Trump. >> Well, I mean, you know, this all gets into splitting hairs on definitional issues. And I and I think part of what the court is saying here is we have not exactly decided what constitutes an unofficial act. So I think you can think of it in these terms. It's an it's an official act, if you if it has something to do with the functioning of the government or the president's job as the nation's chief executive, now, to put this, back in the context of the time, this was all about the 2020 election. And running for election is not, to my mind, an official act that is an unofficial act. That is not something the president is doing in his role as the guy who's running the government, he's doing that to try to get reelected to a second term. So that's not running the government. That's a political activity which I, to my mind, is not a, an official act. But that is just my interpretation as a layperson. I think. And this all is going to have to be in the context of the actual charges. So, the, the, the court is going to have to go to the actual charges and go through them and figure out, well, if this charge relates to what is clearly an official act, then we're going to dismiss this charge, get rid of this one. So it's going to winnow the case down, I think, to what the prosecution can most plausibly claim were not official acts by Trump acting as president of the United States, but unofficial acts, by Trump acting as a candidate for elected office. >> All right, Rick, we're going to have to leave it there. Thanks so much for joining us on this breaking news. We appreciate it. We're going to stick with the court's decision here. The Supreme Court ruling former President Trump does have some immunity from criminal charges related to those attempts to reverse the 2020 election results. Here with more, we've got Scott Bessent, Key Square Group LP founder and CEO, as well as the former CIO of Soros Fund Management. He is also a Trump supporter. Thank you so much for being here with us. Just talk to me really quickly about your initial reaction to this news. >> Yeah. >> Look, I try to stay mostly in my finance lane and, you know, I think we see, that the Democrats lawfare strategy hasn't been a great strategy thus far. You know, if it were an investment strategy, I think it would have been pulled because, you know, every time President Trump's been indicted, his popularity goes up, since the verdict on May 30th through June 15th, there was a record amount of fundraising. I think the Trump campaign raised $400 million. How does this impact fundraising, do you think, from institutional investors, from Wall Street, from CEOs? Yeah Look, I think this probably doesn't, have much of an effect. I think we can get on with the election and we can see the, you know, who who's the best candidate. >> Well, let's talk about the election and the policies at play here. One of the big policies from former President Trump, of course, is tariffs. The consensus view from some of the biggest banks on Wall Street is that the policies Trump is backing would be bad for the economy, would be inflationary at a minimum. How do you justify tariffs as an investor yourself? >> Well, look, I think that they were wrong, and Trump 1.0 I think they'll be wrong. And Trump 2.0 if we go back to tariffs. You know who liked tariffs. The original Treasury Secretary Alexander Hamilton. Why did he like them? For two reasons. One, it brought revenue into, you know, the new country, the United States of America. Two, he was of the opinion that it would protect nascent industries. And I think we heard from President Trump on the debate on Thursday night. And in other conversations, he thinks three, the tariffs give him negotiating leverage. So look, I think you know, my inclination is that when we hear 60% tariffs on China, that's the beginning of a maximalist negotiating position. That's the way president Trump negotiates. I would be surprised if we ever hit that. But I think given his record in Trump, 1.0, he has a lot of credibility in using tariffs to negotiate. >> I want to bring up a quote from Mike Wilson from Morgan Stanley. He said risks are skewed to the downside for growth under Republican win scenarios due in part to immigration reform and tariffs. And this echoes concerns more broadly that Trump's immigration policies would be inflationary because they would raise labor costs. I mean, this is a real concern from some of the biggest banks on Wall Street. What is your take on that? >> Yeah, again, I know Mike well, I think he's wrong on this. I think to think that a Trump 2.0 or let's let's go back to the whole arc of the news cycle, you know, we began 6 or 9 months ago with Bidenomics are great. And bidenomics, you know, the that dog didn't hunt the American people didn't like Bidenomics then the news cycle coming out of Delaware, you know , and kind of put forward by Paul Krugman. Greg EP Alan Blinder was, well, it's just really a vibe session, you know, the American people don't understand how really good they have it, you know, this inflation wasn't that bad. Even I thought it was a tone deaf remark by Secretary Yellen, last week when she said that she hadn't public that she hadn't personally seen inflation at the grocery store. But you know, that the vibe session failed. So now we're in part three, and part three is conjuring a monster that somehow trump 2.0 to define all logic is going to be inflationary or unbelievably, as Larry Summers says, Stagflationary you know, Trump 1.0. We had the non-inflationary growth, some of the strongest growth we've had in 50 years. And I think we're going to have the same thing again, because, you know, if you counterbalance, first of all, with the tariffs traditionally, you know, I'm a I'm a markets guy and an economic historian, traditionally you get a 50% whatever the level of the tariff is, you get a 50% appreciation of that amount in the currency. So it's a 10% tariff. We get a 5% currency appreciation, which takes care of some of the inflationary effects. We didn't see inflationary effects with the tariffs on China, you know, we'll see with the labor. But I personally do not have a problem with the bottom 25% of American workers getting higher wages and the benefits they deserve. You know, they have been crushed by this unfettered, unfettered immigration. But, you know, but let's let's go back to why Trump 1.0, was disinflationary it regulations were cut. You know, we had energy dominance. And you know, the energy prices were low. And, you know, I think under those scenarios it's almost impossible. You know, could they offset each other. Sure. >> Scott, just to jump in I did want to zero in on the immigration piece specifically because there is a real concern that curbing immigration would lead to an increase in labor costs, which could fuel some of the inflation that the Federal Reserve has been fighting against. And we currently have 8 million open jobs. So the argument that curbing immigration would hinder job openings. I struggle to see see that? >> Well, think of it. This way. I think the 8 million job openings are not the people who are pouring across the border every day. You know, they're not going into jobs at Microsoft. The and, you know, senior management. So, you know, I think that that's not right. So and you know, with the deregulation, what's really caused a lot of the Biden inflation is you've got a demand shock from, you know, this out of control government spending, 7% deficits. And then you have a supply constraint from all the regulation. So you know, what we didn't talk about was I believe that a Trump 2.0 is going to get these budget deficits under control. And that, you know, the theory of the price level says the once the budget deficits go down, inflation will come down. >> Well, we've been talking about inflation. I'm curious I know you're under consideration for Treasury Secretary. If President Trump were to get into the white House again, would you argue for firing Jerome Powell in that position? >> The look, I think President Trump understands that. You know what anchors, inflation expectations is the credibility of the federal Reserve. I think Jerome Powell has done an extremely poor job, but I don't think it's to anybody's advantage to fire him. I think that his term will run out. I think that he will be replaced. And I think President Trump just like President Biden, you know, President Biden, even in the state of the union, called for lower rates, from the fed. So I think, you know, President Trump's going to make his opinion known. But, you know, I would not advocate for replacing Jerome Powell before the end of his term. >> At the end of his term. Then who would you want to take that position, yeah, I think that there's a very good list of, you know, both market participants, academics, former fed officials. >> I also want to talk to you a little bit more about the fundraising piece, the former president has not publicly gotten support from a single fortune. 100 CEO. That's according to several studies here. I'm curious, do you know of any fortune 100 CEOs who are supporting President Trump privately? >> Well, look, I actually think that that's a positive because, you know, under under the Biden administration, big companies have done great. And, you know, they're rent seeking. They want to be adjacent to the government and, you know, I would also say that the fortune 100 CEOs, what they may or may not think in private, they are terrified of their shareholders. They're terrified of their board of directors. So I you know, I put the, you know, that study came from, you know, Yale Som. It was highly partizan. You know, I think that we are seeing private individuals. I think we are seeing private companies. So the fact that a CEO doesn't make his or her the, you know, fundraising known, you know, I think it just speaks to kind of the rent seeking that we're seeing in the Biden administration. When you give up a lot of government goodies, you want to be on the receiving end. >> All right, Scott, we're going to have to leave it there. But we really appreciate you coming on to discuss this. Thank you so much. That was Scott Benson. He's Key Square Group LPs founder and CEO. We're going to have all of your markets action ahead right here on Yahoo Finance. Stay tuned. You're watching catalysts. We were just speaking with Scott Bessent. He is allegedly one of the front runners for Treasury Secretary. If Trump gets reelected, Yahoo Finance's Rick Newman is standing by with us. Rick, thanks so much for being here. You just heard that interview. I'm curious, what are some of your takeaways that viewers should keep in mind? >> I would just do provide some context and a little bit of fact checking here. I'm just going to run through these really quickly. Maddy, first, at the beginning, he justified Trump's idea for, more tariffs on imports by saying, well, Alexander Hamilton, who was the first Treasury secretary, he was a big fan of, of tariffs. And he gave two reasons that, Hamilton loved tariffs. Number one, they brought new revenue. They brought revenue into a new country. On that, I would point out we're not a new country anymore. And we, at the time, we did not have any kind of, income tax, we now have an income tax and a corporate income tax, which Hamilton did not have back in the 1700s, and he said Hamilton also liked tariffs because they protect nascent industries. Except we're not talking about nascent industries, we're talking about established industries. And, look, we have we are thoroughly integrated with other economies through trade. So just to keep that in mind, I thought this was a useful insight. He said, when Trump talks about a 60% tariff, a new tariff on all Chinese imports, he said, think of that as a maximalist position that might be for leverage in negotiations. So in other words, maybe Trump would settle for something far less than 60% well worth keeping in mind, just real quickly he he said Janet Yellen, said she went to the grocery store and saw no inflation. That is not true. At all, actually, Janet Yellen said on Yahoo Finance last week. She goes to the grocery store and she sees lots of inflation, he said, during Trump 1.0, which a phrase he used a lot. We had the strongest growth in 50 years, we had pretty good economic growth under under Trump's first term. It wasn't the strongest in 50 years. I think for that, you could go to Bill Clinton in the 1990s, he complained about out of control government spending under Biden. Maybe, although, of the three of the four Covid stimulus bills, Trump signed three of them. And that accounted for about two thirds of that spending, you asked him about tariffs being inflationary, which they are. They add a tax to the price. He said, well, yeah. But at the same time they strengthen your currency so that that offsets some of the inflation. I would say. Well, two things to that. Why do it if you have to off if you're hoping for something to offset it. Number one. And number two, when your currency gets stronger exports go down. That's terrible for exporters. So you have to explain that to exporters, and I thought he kind of hit the right tone on Jerome Powell. Trump always talks about firing the fed chair. But he said he thinks he's done a poor job. But don't try to fire him. Just let him finish out his term which I think expires in 2026. So just some context on that very interesting interview, Maddie. >> Rick, thank you so much for giving us that context and for all of your help with that interview. We really do appreciate you as always. That was our very own Rick Newman coming up right here on Yahoo Finance. We've got wealth dedicated to all of your personal finance needs. Our very own Brad Smith has you right here for the next hour. So stay tuned for more. >> Welcome to wealth, everyone. I'm Brad Smith and this is Yahoo Finance's guide to building your financial footprint. Our community of experts will give you the resources, the tools, the tips and the tricks that you need to grow your money. Hey, on today's show, we're entering the second half of 2024 and the first day of the third quarter. We have an investment playbook for you. Straight ahead. We'll talk about the themes that will matter to you for the remainder of the year. And good news for student loan borrowers. A key part of President Biden's repayment plan will resume after a judge granted the administration's request to stay an order that blocked a provision of his plan just last week. Plus, the cost of your home. We'll talk about the cities with the largest and smallest rent increases in the month of June and an expert's going to give you tips on how to get the most affordable apartment. All that much more coming up during today's show. But first, let's take a look to the markets here. Stocks right now are mixed to start a new month, quarter and second half of the year. The S&P 500 entering Q3 up 14.5% so far this year, while the tech heavy Nasdaq Composite rallied more than 18% thus far coming into the start of the second half, markets in the first half largely led higher by the I trade. More than two thirds of the S&P 500. Gains for the year have come from names like Nvidia, alphabet, Apple and Microsoft. Investors want to know whether or not the AI trade, of course, is still hot on the back half of 2024 here. And for an investor's guide to the second half of the year, we're joined by Dana Doria, who is the Envestnet co-chief Investment officer. Great to have you here in studio with us. >> Thank you so much for having me. >> So first, let's start there with the AI trade that has absolutely fueled so much new vigor into a theme that investors who were perhaps a little bit more passive are now becoming a little bit more active about here. How much more legs do we think the AI trade has at this juncture? >> Oh, I think the AI trade has plenty to go right. We're sort of at the beginning of this. If AI takes off in any way, in any of the ways that we expect in terms of increasing productivity, you know, enabling companies to change the way they do business, we are going to have a huge, huge demand for AI. So we're just at the start of this. I think what's going on, of course, is that there's a lot of focus around Nvidia. And so where goes Nvidia folks think goes the AI trade, which is not necessarily the case. Right. This thing has to broaden out much more. >> Where would that broadening kind of start to take effect from your purview. >> Yeah. So I mean to start with I think you're still looking at companies that support that support AI in terms of needs semiconductors, for example. Right Equipment manufacturing that's necessary for AI energy, of course, has been a huge theme this year around AI and the expectation that we're going to need massive amounts of energy to power this. So if you think about some of the international spaces where some of the stuff is made, and there may be not priced so stratospherically as what you're seeing, you know, in cases here in the US, that's one way to play it. I would say to be very careful though about AI washing. Right. And this notion that, you know, I'm an AI server and an AI this or AI that, right? I mean, you know, putting the words AI in your earning script is a good thing. So everyone's doing it. Yeah. >> Folks, that's been tracking the number of mentions and seems quarter after quarter that they're saying, hey, once again, this is a new record quarter for the amount of mentions of AI on earnings calls. You know, all these things considered here, one of the other major themes or catalysts, if you will, that investors were tracking coming into the start of this year. And they're going to continue to track going into the back half, is the policy pathway for rate cuts. What is your best estimation of when that will start to or if it's impacting people's playbook? >> Yeah, it's definitely impacting the playbook I think for sure so much in the in terms of our economy is interest rate sensitive and starts with, you know, what's going on with interest rates. I think small caps have had a lot of pain. For example, they're known to be more interest rate sensitive. And that's hurt them the higher for longer. So I do think you know that monitoring of exactly how many cuts I think look, everybody kind of thinks we're going to get some start on the rate cuts. This year, it would be an odd play to get moving too early on rate cuts considering where our economy is. I mean, GDP is, you know, it's good. It's not the blowout it had been for a while there, but it's good. Unemployment's fantastic still, right? I mean there's really not cracks there. So with the market doing very well GDP kind of remaining pretty good and unemployment low. You know employment is strong. It's really hard to make a case that we need rate cuts right away. That being said, in a reelection year the fed usually cuts rates. So we should expect some. So is it one. Is it two. You know betting odds? Probably one before the election, one after the election. But there's a lot of data to come in between now and then. >> Is there a good election rule of thumb that investors need to remember as they're trying to really navigate what could be some potential volatility, as UBS had put it in some of their election watch coming into that general election. Yeah. >> Look, I mean, the empirical evidence looking historically at what happens in election years, it's there hasn't been a lot by way of correlation between the party in power and whether markets in general do well, although much attempt to, you know, create something like that. Right. And find that kind of a link. But that being said, of course, this election in particular, there are clear winners and losers that the market, in fact, you have whole country economies, markets kind of moving on the basis of this election. So, you know, China versus India, right? Trump wins not good for China, maybe not good for Mexico, good for India. And vice versa. So the idea of this nearshoring and, you know, Trump kind of coming in and with with much more massive tariffs. So I think when you're looking within countries and within sectors, yes, there are clear winners. Financials got a big bump after the debate. We think we can all you know kind of point to why that was the case. So you know as as you're looking at the second half and you're you're judging where you're going to be in terms of the market. The other thing I would just remember is, look, the market price is this information pretty quickly into the prices and I think a lot of times people forget that, you know, so the price has to reflect both the potential outcomes and the probability all in one number. So it's going to move at least to a certain extent to what the expectation is. And you know, then when the actual, you know, the event happens, the rest of that movement tends to happen. So getting ahead of that is a very difficult thing to do. >> Dana, great to have you here in studio with us. Thanks so much for kicking off the second half of 2024 with us. Appreciate it. Dana Doria, who is the Envestnet Co-Chief Investment Officer, great to see you. >> Thank you. >> The Biden administration's new student loan repayment plan, getting the green light to resume over the weekend. A federal appeals court granting the saving on a valuable education or the Save plan stay is what it was given after a provision of the plan was blocked after a judge issued injunction last week. Now this gives the administration the go ahead to lower borrowers monthly payments. This impacts around 8 million borrowers who have signed up for the new income driven repayment plan so far. Now, the plan eliminates 100% of remaining interest on subsidized and unsubsidized loans after making a full scheduled payment now increases the income exemption, which cuts monthly payments. So this also excludes the spouse's income. If filing taxes separately. So what does all this mean? Well, it's a major win for President Biden. The administration has forgiven about $167 billion in student loan debt during the presidency, according to the white House. Well before we all head out for July 4th, later this week, we will be getting some brand new jobs numbers that could actually give us a better picture on the state of the economy. For more, we bring in our own Josh Lipton, who's been tracking all things employment situation. Hey, Josh. >> Brad, good to see you. So you're right, it's a holiday shortened trading week here. But we still do have some important economic data to consider. Remember last week we got the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment Index. The final reading was 68.2. In June. Strategist Peter Boockvar notes that was down from May and the lowest since November, but better than the initial June print. So Boockvar says positive , though still weak. Turning to this week. Now we're going to get a window into the labor market with ADP on Wednesday, U.S. private employers are expected to have hired 158,000 workers last month of course, that report is published ahead of the Labor Department's more closely monitored employment report coming out on Friday morning. The all important monthly nonfarm payrolls data for June. Now, economists expect the report to show that 190,000 nonfarm payroll jobs were added last month, per Bloomberg, with unemployment holding steady at 4. Remember that in May, the U.S. economy added 272,000 jobs added up in. Economists see a labor market that has cooled but isn't cold in their words. So the question now what comes next? As Nick Timiraos of The Wall Street Journal puts it, is the labor market in a sustainable equilibrium where unemployment settles out around 4? Or, he asks, keep softening, resulting in recession, as historically has occurred when unemployment rises much more than it already has. Economists, of course, have different takes. A more optimistic view comes from Ed Yardeni, who tells clients that he is not concerned about our labor market, emphasizing that private payroll employment is driven by corporate profits. And as he points out in this chart, the S&P 500 forward earnings continues to rise to record highs. Bottom line Doctor Ed says profitable companies tend to expand their payrolls, but a cooling labor market, coupled with signs that inflation is moving in the right direction, have implications for the Federal Reserve of course, markets currently assigning a nearly 62% probability of a rate cut in September with a cooler jobs report on Friday morning. Give our central bankers greater confidence to make that move. Investors are going to be watching Brad back to you. All right. >> Thanks so much. Excellent breakdown. Some key data that we're going to be tracking even during this holiday. Abbreviated trading week. Josh thanks so much. You got it. Well how much do you have saved for retirement? Depending on your age you may be a bit more stressed about that balance. We break down all the tips and tricks to make sure that you have enough to live out your golden years. That's right. After the break, stick with us. 55 year olds have a median retirement savings of less than $50,000. According to a Prudential report. For a demographic just a decade away from retirement, that's pretty far from the target of having eight times your annual income saved to break down, how to catch up, and how younger generations can start off strong. We've got Yahoo Finance's own Kerry Hannon here to discuss Kerry. What do we know about how people can close that gap between what's necessary and where things currently sit. >> Absolutely Brad great to be here. Yeah This study is a little alarming because that short runway to retirement for someone who's 55, and it's worth noting because this generation also in the report showed that they're, you know, woefully short when it comes to emergency funds. They just seem to be grappling with a lot of financial issues. Inflation certainly plays a role in that. But what's concerning is that that sort of and if you recall Gen X is the 55 year old is square in that age range, you know, from around 44 to 59 this year. But here's the good news, Brad. It appears that younger generations are actually getting started investing earlier. And this bodes very well for their retirement, another report I saw from Schwab actually showed that whereas Gen X didn't get started saving for retirement, so that 55 year old until age 31, the Gen Z. So our youngest generation, those who are in their early 20s up to say, age 27, they started at age 18, millennials around to age 24. So we're seeing some momentum there of getting going a bit earlier with the younger generation. The message is getting through, and the other thing I noticed in some of the new reports is that in the percentage of people who are actively investing, I was really curious. It was really curious for me to see that Gen Z again, those younger folks just getting rolling in the in the job market are investing at a rate of around 45, and that is really encouraging. So that was one thing. The other side of the equation is Fidelity's first quarter report came out, and they actually pointed to some numbers that were up, you know, a bit optimistic and good for that. Gen X at 55 year old, they said that Gen X has a total savings rate. The ones that they monitor in their retirement plans of over 15. And that's above what they recommend as a good rate of savings. That's a combination of personal savings as or, you know, into your retirement account. And your employer contribution. But the good news here again, Gen Z, hey, they're going for it. They've got 11% total savings rate right now. And I'd say that was pretty good. I don't think I did when I was that age. >> Yeah. No me neither. Carrie. So what action can people take right now to better position themselves? >> Yeah. Brad. That's really important to focus, focus, focus. Let's go back to that 55 year old that that has under 55,000 save for retirement. You have absolutely got to make saving a priority. You do have some runway. But the fact is, you know, someone who thinks they're going to retire at 65, people really often retire at 62 for a whole gob of reasons. You could be physical reasons or what have you layoffs. But so they may only have seven years, not ten years. So buckle down. You know, really rev it up. And one expert I talked to said, hey, if you can save 25, go for it, of your income towards your retirement savings. So that would be really cool. The second thing you really absolutely need to do is, if possible, you know, push back, taking your Social Security. This is a hugely unpopular suggestion. Most people really like to jump right into Social Security as soon as they can get it. At age 62. But the fact is, if you can wait till age 70, and I know that's a big ask, but if someone has the ability to do that, you get the biggest paycheck moving forward for the rest of your life. There's an 8% increase each year from your full retirement age, which is around 67 to age 70. So if you can possibly do that and in order to push it back, that third tip is try to stay on the job as long as you can. Obviously, if there's physical issues, health issues, you can't. But the longer you can keep working, keep your skills up to date, stay in the job market. You can push back taking that social Security and really improve your retirement security in the future. So, those are really things that I think people need to focus and buckle down. >> All right. Some top tips. Carrie Hannon, thank you so much. Breaking this down. And the results of the survey, plus some actionable items that people can really capitalize on. Thanks so much, Carrie. >> Thanks so much, Brad. >> You got it. Well our interest rates right now, interest rates are high. But for how long? The majority of interest rate traders are pricing in a rate cut in September. So it might be time to reexamine your portfolio to look at investment areas that are rate sensitive a big one CDs. This is a type of savings account that pays a fixed interest rate for an agreed period of time. So is now a good time or a not a bad time to get into CDs? Or is the answer more complicated than this? And certainly let's get a full breakdown on this. Right now we've got Corinne Baltzersen, who is the head of wealth at Carino's. Great to have you here with us, Corinne. First and foremost, you know, as people are trying to figure out why CDs make sense, right now and also trying to kind of examine what the Fed's policy pathway may look like, what is the top thing that they should keep in mind with this type of instrument? >> Absolutely. Thanks for having me this morning, Brad, in the wealth space, CDs are definitely a much different option than what you see in the traditional retail space, for wealth clients who have so many different options for where to place their cash, it really is a balancing act around, how much of a return are they looking to get? How much money do they want to have in a consistent, steady rate versus in the market where there can be some volatility, what we've seen for the first time in recent history is that wealth clients are adopting retail CDs. And what's happening there at the start of 2023, CDs represented just 3% of wealth deposits and clients were adopting CDs. About 10% of acquisition balances going into retail CDs. That picked up greatly last year, as you could get to a 5% handle on a CD, there's something in the mentality of an investor that 5% seems great. And so even wealth clients started adopting CDs at a much higher pace, it's been about 20% of acquisition dollars going into CDs since mid 23. That's not slowing down at all. As long as we stay in this higher for longer environment. And CDs now represent about 11% of wealth deposits. >> So, Corinne, what happens when the fed begins its rate cutting and the pacing of that still remains unclear. But what happens when that pathway really kicks off? >> So, Brad, what's really been interesting, I think we need to look at what's happened since last July. In, historically in times between when the fed stopped raising rates and started lowering rates, that's when the market outperformance led more investors into the market versus keeping that money in cash. We haven't really seen that this year, people are holding more money in cash than ever before. So as rates start to go down, I think there's going to be a real shift once clients can no longer get that 5% handle anymore. And then there's going to be another sort of mental break there at 4, if rates, rest at, you know, the three, 3.5% mark that everyone's, sort of betting on, it is highly unlikely that wealth clients in particular, will continue to adopt CDs. They can just get a higher yield in the market right now. They have options with money, funds and treasuries where they don't have to lock up, their money for so long, to get that 5% handle. >> And so what is a way that someone could get involved or could exercise an opportunity to make sure that they're taking advantage of the full benefits that a CD might give them? You know, where does that thought process even initiate? For a lot of people, absolutely, if I could predict the market and where rates are going, I certainly wouldn't be sitting in this seat, I'll tell you. But, for clients who are interested in in locking in, you know, we do believe we're at top of market right now. And so that 5% and the impending rate cuts, whether it be September later this year or the multiple rate cuts that are going to be happening next year, this could be the last opportunity to get in at that 5. Lock it in, and have that what we see with wealth clients is that they are much less likely to lock in for a longer term. So in the retail space, clients might be betting right now. And locking in for 12 months. A wealth client would rather kind of preserve that optionality and have liquidity to be able to go into the market. And so most wealth clients are locking their money up for a maximum of nine months, with the majority at kind of 6 to 7 months right now, we saw for the first time in history that clients were timing their CD maturities in the wealth space with tax time, so they would have their renewal go into, checking account and then use those funds to pay taxes. Whereas in the past it was money moving from the market into checking in order to pay taxes. >> Corinne Baltzersen, who is the head of wealth at Kiranos. Corinne, thanks so much for taking the time here with us today. >> Thank you. Certainly >> Coming up, everyone, as former New York City mayoral candidate Jimmy McMillan once said, the rent is too high and it just keeps getting higher in some areas. We'll discuss why next. Mortgage rates have come down recently. Still remaining near that 7% level. But easing in the last few weeks. But for many homeowners, they could soon see their monthly payments rising. Yahoo finance reporter Danny Romero is here with. Why Why? Why are you doing this to them, Danny? >> Brad, a shockwave may be coming for many homeowners data from Intercontinental Exchange shows that more than 100,000 loans will reset in the next 12 months. Now, these are homeowners that have an ARM loan, an adjustable rate mortgage loan which can offer temporary relief for homeowners who want to avoid paying higher mortgage rates. But they also come with a risk. Homeowners have a fixed period, usually between five, 7 or 10 years. Then the rate on an arm loan adjusts based on market conditions. Now due to rates staying high, many arm loan holders are experiencing an unpleasant shock of higher monthly housing payments. About 1.7 million homeowners have bought homes with an adjustable rate mortgage since 2019, and that's according to data from Intercontinental Exchange. Now remember, an adjustable loan can make sense for homebuyers comfortable taking risks of interest rate increases, or those who plan to move and refinance before that fixed rate expires. Now, it's also very key to pay close attention to those details of your loans. Otherwise, things can really turn ugly. Brad. >> Yeah, Danny, let's talk about rentals here. A new report says that the average apartment sizes are getting bigger. How much bigger and why bigger living spaces are making a comeback. >> The average space size. Excuse me, of a new apartment has increased by 27ftS from the previous year. Now that's the size of a kitchenette or a small bathroom. Now, the reason behind a bigger, bigger new apartment space is that there's more supply of 2 to 3 bedroom apartments that have been added to the market. Now, cities like Jacksonville, Florida. Orlando, Florida, they are the cities that are offering larger new apartment spaces. But even here, Brad in New York City, new apartments are getting roomier by 16ftS, which could be a small walk in closet. >> Brad. Wow. >> Okay. All right. Kudos to all the people with the shoe collections out there getting a walk in closet. Danny, thanks so much. Well, let's stay on the topic of rents asking rents for apartments in some of the biggest cities in the U.S. have risen by double digit percentage points since June of 2023. Here with more information on where rents are rising and where they are falling, we've got Crystal Chen, who is the Zumper spokesperson. Crystal, great to have you here with us. So where are the hot spots? Where rents? Let's start with the good news where they're falling. >> So our most we have a report that we publish every month. And our most affordable cities right now are Wichita, Akron and Shreveport, and our most expensive cities are in New York City, new Jersey and in San Francisco, we're seeing a ton of supply coming onto the market in the Sunbelt. So markets in Florida, Texas, Georgia, they're seeing, you know, double digit, rental price declines versus the Northeast and Midwest markets, like New York City, Chicago are seeing rents up in the double digits annually. >> You know, I'm glad that you mentioned that, because construction is obviously everywhere in New York City where we are. But I wonder in other parts of the country that are seeing perhaps stronger construction, the net effect that that is having on rents and what the kind of trend is that people, renters are expecting in this near term. >> So, yeah, I think nationally, our, index shows that rents are up 1 to 2% year over year, which is pretty low. But if you dive into regions, you'll see that, like I mentioned, if you're in living in the Sunbelt area, you'll see all these new construction and you'll see rents decline a bunch annually, versus in New York City, rents are the highest of the nation. And, the current vacancy rate for New York City is 1.4, which is down from the 4.5% rate that it was only two years ago. So even though there is a lot of construction in New York City, there is still so much demand, and that demand has even spilled over into neighboring states like Connecticut and Jersey since New Haven and Newark rents are also up about 7% annually, too. >> Yeah, that's been remarkable to see, especially with those who are accessing public transit just to commute in, commute out of the city. You know, while we got you, we got to give people some some actionable tips to really help find an affordable apartment. What are some of the mechanisms that they can deploy to make sure that they're getting a good deal? >> Yeah. So, the first one would be use seasonality to your advantage. Winter is the best, season to move since typically property owners tend to price down units to fill vacancies before the holidays, and there's typically the lowest competition and demand overall. So if you're looking for a good deal and you can move in the winter, that would be the best time to snag a deal, also look for move in specials, as I mentioned, there's a ton of inventory hitting the US market this year. I think peaking at a 50 year high this summer. So a lot of new buildings are offering concessions like 2 to 3 months of free rent, waived deposits and fees and free parking spots. So, that will significantly reduce your annual rental costs, and also just use multiple search tools, Zumper is obviously a great source, since we're all across the nation and in Canada, but using community boards or if you're an an agent market, talking to brokers, could be helpful. So you just, are as informed as you possibly can before you commit to a long term lease. >> Crystal Chen who is the Zumper spokesperson. Crystal, great to have you on here with us talking all things rent. We got to see what we can do about these new York City prices too much. Thanks so much. >> Thank you. >> Certainly everyone. We've got much more on wealth after the break. You're watching Yahoo Finance. Picture this. You hop in the car. After a busy day of work. You punch your address in to Waze or whatever app that you're using to avoid traffic and connect your phone so you can play some music. All the while, your car is tracking every move you make. According to Counterpoint Research, two out of every three cars sold feature embedded connectivity, and this is expected to grow to almost 100% by 2030. And a Salesforce survey finds 65% of drivers are unfamiliar with the concept of a connected car. Internet oriented nonprofit Mozilla spent over 600 hours researching various car brands, privacy and their practices here with some of the takeaways, we've got one of the authors of that report, Jen Rider, who is the Mozilla product Director of Privacy, Not Included. Great to have you here on the show with us, Jen. I mean, what was the most astounding finding from the hours of research, hundreds of hours of research that you put towards this study? >> Well, the most astounding thing is that every car that people buy these days is bad for privacy. There are no good options for new cars, for privacy, for somebody who wants to go out and buy a car and cares about that. That was really disturbing. >> Which of all of the vehicles that you studied was the worst at protecting privacy? >> You know, it was really hard to pick a worst because they were all pretty bad, you know, Tesla, of course, raised a lot of eyebrows, but were they the worst? You know, it's hard to say. I mean, Nissan said in their privacy policy that you had to consent to, they could collect information on your sexual activity. Kia said they could collect information on your sex life. Others talked about genetic information, so it's really hard to pick one. I think across the board, connected cars are all about privacy. >> And so how can the connected cars? Because, I mean, based on those surveys that we were just rattling off, it's not going to go anywhere anytime soon. How can they become better about protection of privacy? >> Well, I mean, when you when you think about privacy, you know, we're going to have to give up data in our connected world. It's just how it works and what you want to see is, is a product that collects data only collect the data it needs to give you the service. So for a car, you want it to collect only the data it needs to get you from point A to point B safely and then use it only for that. No other reason, unfortunately, that's not what's happening with cars. Cars are collecting an insane amount of data, some of it they use to get us from point A to point B safely. But a lot of it they use to make money off of us to share for targeted advertising purposes, to sell, to data brokers where insurance companies can scoop it up and raise our rates if we if it looks like we're driving poorly, and then there's the questions about, you know, there's cameras in the car, there's microphones in the car, there's sensors. So they know how many people are in the car and how fast you're going and how hard you're braking and what you're listening to, and all that can be gathered to create these inferences about us that know, you know, things like our intelligence, our abilities, where we go for dinner every Thursday night. And so it's all a big problem. And the solutions are are way behind. >> And so with that in mind, what are some tips for people who are trying to take it upon themselves to protect their privacy while engaging with a very connected, very highly technological driving and motor vehicle experience? >> Yeah. So I bought a car last year as, as I was doing this research and it was a it was a scary proposition. But a couple of things that I did and again, I kind of make recommend these tips with the caveat that they're not all going to protect all of your privacy. You just can't do that with a car these days. But a couple of things you can do are don't download and install the app. It means you're going to give up some nice features, like being able to remotely lock and unlock your car, start your car, but it it eliminates tracking, don't connect your phone to your car. And I know that's crazy because you're like, well, how am I going to play my tunes or do my navigation, but that's a privacy choice that you're going to have to make. I choose not to connect my phone to my car. But, you know, again, it's not a great, option. And unfortunately, none of the tips I give people are great options. And so I think the best tip I can give people, right now is to call your elected officials and say, you know, this is wrong. Our privacy is more important than car companies. Bottom lines, and every connected big tech companies, bottom lines. And we need a strong consumer, federal privacy, consumer focused federal privacy law, which we don't have in the United States. And so pushing elected officials to make that happen would be maybe the best place, certainly could start. >> Absolutely. Jen, while we have you here, just lastly, I mean, it's summertime. We've got a lot of people traveling. Perhaps they're going to be renting a vehicle that has some of these features in it. I mean, I know I've been quick to say, all right, let me make sure that I can pair it with Bluetooth and make sure that I'm connected to, you know, any type of Airplay that might be taking place with that vehicle. Because I have a long drive ahead of me. What do people need to be remembering specifically for those who are renting a car out there? >> Yeah, car rentals are really tricky because not only is that data potentially getting shared to the car rental company or the car dealer, the car company, but the next person that uses the car could see it. And so again, I recommend don't connect your phone to your car, you know, do it, do it the old fashioned way. You know, just keep your phone off of Bluetooth and unconnected and navigate and listen to your music that way, if you do connect it, do your very best to wipe everything that's connected off of the car. And that can be tricky, you know, you can you can try and futz around with the settings and find a way to delete it. And then you just have to hope that it actually deletes everything. It might not, so I think your best bet when you rent a car is just stay disconnected. Do it. The old fashioned way. Keep your phone, you know, and you know, have a navigator over there hopefully to do that. >> Yeah. >> All right. Whipping out the old paper maps here, Jen Ryder, who is the Mozilla product director of privacy not included. Jen, great to see you here today. Thanks so much for the tips. Thank you. Certainly shifting gears here to an exciting new opportunity at Yahoo Finance. We bring in Yahoo Finance contributor Ross Mack. Now Ross, you've got a brand new podcast out with Yahoo Finance, with the first episode dropping noon eastern time today. What can you tell us about the financial freestyle and the first episode? >> Well, one, this is exciting, right? This is the first of its kind and I just love the opportunity to really give the audience just a new way to actually think about personal finance. Right? We're going to make this much more easily digestible. And the great thing about it is we're bringing in a lot of amazing people from all walks of life, whether it's C-suite employees at top financial firms, athletes, you name it. But the great thing is that we all have a commonality and that is trying to make personal finance way more digestible, easy to understand. And let's just bring back that layer, right. We can't just continue to allow finance to be such a taboo topic that we talk about. Right. Like it's very important that we're talking about, you know, tips on retirement, tips on real estate, tips on you know, the right accounts to open up for your children. And now you get to hear it from, you know, some great people that I feel as though are, you know, astronomically great at what they do. And the good thing is now they are helping, you know, make it a lot easier for us to understand it, because what they did along their pathway to finding success, they're willing to share it with the audience and so I'm excited that we're launching today. And I think we should probably go into a clip of it right now. >> Well, let's check out an exclusive clip, financial freestyle. >> Check it out. >> Sitting here right now, 2024. Still 40% of all Americans run out of money in retirement, right? 53% of African-American households run out of money in retirement. So we are looking at a system, if that system is broken, everything breaks down. So if your parents, you know, can't run out of money in retirement, then you have to start funding them because they don't have money. So that's taking money out of out of what should be your, you know, your nest egg, which you should be passing on to your kids. So it's just a generational deficit. If we can't retire the right way, financial freestyle with Ross Mack premieres today at 12 p.m. eastern time, will air a new episode every Monday. >> Ross, looking good. Thanks so much. >> Thank you. >> Certainly, everyone coming up. We've got much more wealth after the break. Stick around. For The Dawn of a New ERA for theme parks. Six Flags and Cedar Fair expected to close their merger today. In the combination of the two regional theme parks would create a combined entity valued at $8 billion. Shares expected to begin trading on the New York Stock Exchange as early as tomorrow, July 2nd. And our next guest sees meaningful upside potential for investors. For more on this, I'm joined by James Hardiman, Citi Leisure and travel analyst. James, great to speak with you and grab some time as always here. I mean, just the significance of this combination and what success looks like, post combination and deal for both of these companies now. >> Yeah, I mean, it's a big deal. You don't see a whole lot of M&A in this space. I've been covering it for 15 years. This is this is far and away the biggest deal really the only deal of its kind this this century, and I think it creates significant value. You talked about, you know, what success looks like, you know, we think that value is created here. A because, there's a significant management upgrade, right? The Cedar Fair management team is the steady hand that I think the Six Flags assets have needed for. So long, and have has been missing. Ultimately, they've been doing this for a very long time. I think there's a liquidity upgrade, in addition to sort of bringing together two small cap companies to make them a mid-cap company, Cedar Fair has historically been an MLP, which just a lot of investors just ultimately don't want to bother with. It's now going to convert to a traditional C corp, which I think helps. And there's significant synergy opportunities here as well. >> What does this mean for the consumer? I mean, a lot of households trying to figure out what theme park experiences are affordable for them right now is they're kind of picking and choosing where they can play in the experience economy. What does this mean for affordability ? Once the consummation fully takes place here of this deal? >> Yeah, I mean, I think there's going to be in in a handful of markets. There's going to be an opportunity to bring together multiple parks, in a season pass, structure. Right. So I think maybe most notably of that Southern California market, if you live in Los Angeles and you know, you would consider going to either Six Flags Magic Mountain or Knott's Berry Farm, which is a Cedar Fair park, one of them is north of LA. One of them is south of LA. I think there's an opportunity there to get a season pass where you could get unlimited visits to both for a price that is probably going to be less than a single day visit to Disneyland, I think that's a big opportunity . Now. It's not you know, in most cases, there isn't a ton of overlap, and so the consumers aren't going to see much of a difference, but I think there are a handful of cases in which they will. >> James, I imagine that, you know, in your line of work, which which sounds very fun as you're kind of looking across these theme parks, you know, maybe you get to go to one from time to time in different markets and really perhaps put the experiences up against one another. What is the biggest value driver that consumers are really looking for from theme parks, especially in this economy? >> Yeah, I mean, I think theme parks are, you know, first and foremost, they're an experiential, product. Right. And what we've seen for at least the better part of the last decade is that experiences are winning out over, over consumer goods. Right, I think in addition to that, it's a it's a family friendly form of entertainment, it's safe, which was certainly, you know, a big, big draw coming out of the pandemic, but ultimately, it's a it's a way to take your family, to have some fun to unplug, so to speak, these are assets that aren't ever going to be, you know, at risk from the Amazons and the Googles of the world. Right? It's getting outside. It's having, fun with with friends and family. Yeah. >> James, I've been bullish on Dippin Dots since oh six, so hopefully that's holding up right now. James Hardiman who's the City Leisure and Travel Analyst James, thanks so much for taking the time. >> Thank you. >> Appreciate it. Well, July 4th is just a couple of days away, and while you may already be dreaming of sitting by the pool with a hot dog in one hand and a drink in the other, beverage companies are already out in full force getting ready for the biggest beer day of the year. For more, let's bring in Maggie Timoney, who is the Heineken USA CEO. Maggie great to have you here with us on the program. I imagine that your entire team is revved up for this 4th of July. What's going to look different from Heineken this year versus years past, and how does that play into the overall strategy that you're putting into the market? >> Well, it's more of the same. We're focused on our core brands, Heineken and Osakis, and in particular, over July 4th we have Heineken zero zero. The number one nonalcoholic beer by value in the United States, five points further than our nearest competitor. And we are making moderation. Cool, we are again up almost double digits again this year. The category is up double digits and at the forefront of igniting this nascent category. When we launch launched in 2018, we are here to stay, and we're looking forward to seeing more Americans. Choose a Heineken zero zero over the July 4th holiday weekend over the summer. And for the rest of the year. >> How is Gen Z specifically and the customer lifetime value in relationship that companies like Heineken look to have with that consumer cohort and consumer group? How is Gen Z changing the appetite and the purchasing profile, that you're seeing even from Heineken? >> That's a great question. You know, we're seeing Gen Z is whether it's because of how they were brought up or, or if it's because of post-Covid. Gen Z is a much more thoughtful, intentional, intentional, but also promiscuous. They want to try new things. And if you look at the beer or the alcohol beverage basket, 94% of people who buy nonalcoholic beer also buy alcohol. So it's not instead of it's in addition to. So we see gen Z choosing moderation when they want to choose moderation. But all consumers are also in that space. So for us, it's great that we have alcoholic products and 0.0 Heineken zero zero. And also osakis lime and zero salt. In order to offer an option for any occasion, whether it's Gen Z or beyond Gen Z, when you think about production for Heineken, you know there have been a few different things to have to wade through. >> There's sustainability. There's of course, how you're being able to make sure that everything from the raw materials that goes in to some of these beverages and world that is continuously changing because of climate, how you're able to make sure that you're able to kind of continue putting forth the same operation, but with a more kind of environmentally sound footprint as well. How do you navigate that right now? And what are the changes that Heineken is making? >> We're very intentional and intentional with corporate social responsibility. Look at we're making moderation cool. We're looking at, net zero. We're we're refining and looking and tweaking our breweries and building your new breweries that are much more sustainable, for Heineken zero zero, we're ensuring that we deliver sustainable, social responsible product to the United States, but also around the world. We launched in 2017, and we're in over 100 countries already. We are the number one non nonalcoholic zero alcohol brand across the world. >> Just lastly we only have 30s left here. What is your anticipation for how canned cocktails are going to continue to perform for Heineken, we don't well, in the United States right now. We don't have canned cocktails. We do see that spirits are growing because of canned cocktails outside. If you exclude a ready to drink cocktail, spirits are declining, we see a little bit of softness in the canned cocktail space over the last 12 weeks. So let's watch that space. We know what happens. Seltzers. Certainly. >> Okay. All right. Yeah. I'm just I'm looking at the cans that were behind you, and I was like, oh, you know what? That is another major trend that's really come about within the industry and no doubt top of mind for you and the team there. Maggie Timoney, who is the Heineken USA CEO. Thank you so much for taking the time, Maggie. >> Thank you so much, Brad. Thank you. >> Absolutely. That's it for wealth everyone. I'm Brad Smith, thank you for watching. Stay tuned for market domination. Seana Smith and Josh Lipton. That's coming up at 3 p.m. eastern time. You don't want to miss it. Oh nice. |
W0C1ULkRz38 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W0C1ULkRz38 | 2024-06-28 00:00:00 | Opening Bid | Hidden gems in tech that investors need to know: Opening Bid | [Music] welcome to opening bid I'm Yahoo finance executive editor Brian sazy now let's make some money and hopefully get a lot smarter here with me now is Goldman Sachs Asset Management portfolio manager Brooke damee broe good to see you in person for a change Brian it's great to be on for the time we got a lot of stock to talk about but um look by no means is this a political podcast so we're not going down that route but the world has just watched a major event in this presidential debate hot takes on both sides of the equation one takeaway is that this could to be a challenging time for the markets going into the back half of the year because we have one guy saying this one guy who couldn't put a couple sentences together what should an investor do after they watch this big moment in time yeah so you know anytime you have a big um chance for a structural change like that it's important for investors to be balanced heading into that kind of uh environment so we're always talking about clients uh about being balanced in their portfolios being balanced and their Outlook you know even within our Tech portfolios we're always trying to kind of balance out risk and reward with something like this you know um you can look at different Industries and sub sectors that'll benefit or lose depending on kind of which party wins in November from a tech perspective though actually like the the political environment doesn't change that much under either one of them uh you know that there's going to be increasing scrutiny around social media you know that there's going to be increasing tensions and um rhetoric around China us um so those are kind of the big things to focus on and just to make sure that you're balanced across those kind of vectors and areas when you talk to clients are they nervous do they sound more nervous today than when they did three months ago when you talked to them so you know it's interesting the client conversations we're having right now are all around Ai and um what I would say is is that it's so focused on you know where are we in this AI cycle where are we with this massive transformation we're seeing and how should we be positioned and that is you know the kind of questions 1 2 3 4 five when you get into the risk aspects of things which we're always doing that's when this comes up as well as um you know some other external events so it's not um so they're not saying bro I got get the hell out of these stocks what do I do if I think the world's going to hell in a hand basket in November you're not you're not getting those no that's not that is not the tenor of the conversations at all it's more of okay this is the biggest structural change we've seen in Tech in 15 years how should we be positioned what do you think about the risk rewards out here you know how do you think we should be approaching taking advantage of this are there key winners um depending on who wins the election I mean do you have a basket that if Biden wins these do well Trump wins these do well or don't and vice yeah so there definitely are baskets out there that are positioned um on either side of that and in fact one of the things we do from a risk management standpoint is we're running our portfolios to understand the exposures on either side and look when you're when you're managing you know pools of assets on the client's behalf like our whole thing is we're trying to drive stock selection to give you the return so my opinion on stock X versus stock y we want that to be what drives the alpha we don't want it to be some random bet on a political outcome or the way interest rates move or if Energy prices go up or down so we're always using pretty sophisticated risk tools to basically stress test our portfolios and see how they would react under different scenarios so in fact I was just in a meeting yesterday where we were going through this exact scenarios across our portfolios of okay like if if this is the group of stocks that we think would you know move on a a republican win or a Democratic win like how would that play out across our portfolios and then the the questions from the risk teams back to the portfolio managers is are you comfortable with that level of risk do you think that's the right you know expression in your portfolio you know is it is it bigger than you thought it was or smaller than you thought it was is there one more AI friendly GR group that you have determined that would whoever wins this is the this is the group that's going to let AI be Ai and spread throughout Society yeah so no is the short answer from that standpoint I think Washington in general is lagging behind understanding how profound this change is and how structural it is and um that's sort of been the Playbook on Washington and Tech regulation for the last decade that that the tech companies and the pace of tech Innovation is just moving at a faster Pace than the Regulators can catch up and understand actually like from a regulatory standpoint we're probably more focused on what's happening in Europe than what's happening in the US because the European Regulators are more uh aggressive in in kind of their stances and how they're pursuing things how do you see regulation in the US how do you see that playing out over the next 5 years yeah so um I think that you know you've seen this incredible concentration in the US market um both you know you know obviously right now in this moment of AI you've seen you know the narrowness of the market um and then also on the social media side and these these Mega scale tech companies they are becoming so incredibly large and impactful that I think you you can't not discount the risk that at some point The Regulators get more aggressive the problem is is that the tools The Regulators have aren't particularly adapted to to the current reality so you know we're always watching it and thinking about kind of how could this change and how could this impact stuff is this is this a decade potential decade of of tech break ups I don't think so honestly like I you know we we talk about that a lot and think through those things but there's no there isn't a what does it even look like yeah well I mean some of them you could like you can understand how different businesses could separate from the main but it's it's very hard to see what regulatory environment there is that would force that kind of outcome so you mentioned having more concern about Europe what is Europe doing on the regulatory front compared to the US yeah so the the two things to watch on the European side is with the Privacy um rules that they they've put into place this something called the dma um first of all it limits the ability of some of these companies to use the data that they have as effectively to drive Revenue so you know one of the things that you know before we even talk about gen AI like classic AI has had this incredible uh impact across social media platforms where they can you know they can really Drive attention and time spent because their algorithms are just better at engaging you and keeping you you know focused on your phone instead of the world around you um the European Regulators are trying to limit some of these companies ability to use the data they have and then they're backing it up with real impactful findes and and meaningful things and so from that standpoint um there's more teeth in the regulation it h it has more real business impact in the ability for large platforms to grow on scale um and then there's you know beyond dma there's other things as well that are happening there that you could see them both limiting the Topline growth of some of the companies in Europe and impacting them from a cash flow p&l standpoint are there certain us companies that have that European exposure that might see slower than the expected growth rates because of that so all the big platforms have pretty good scale in Europe and matter so if you're thinking about you know the the software internet and uh handset you know Apple Microsoft Google uh Facebook Amazon are all in the in the focus probably Microsoft less than the other four but those are the ones where we're really watching to understand the impact um I recently caught a a podcast with Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates and he he was making a comparison between valuations and the potential for generative AI now I get cound in Microsoft so I get where he's coming from but he said the potential over the next 10 20 years is just massive and maybe a lot of these stocks are still cheap help us understand like what are you seeing from a gen AI perspective that we make stocks that are trading three four times the market multiple cheap yeah so like when we we firmly believe that um this is a profound change in technology we were just out in the valley meeting with everyone from the CEO CFOs of the world's largest companies down to you know the the leaders of these private Frontier Model companies so like literally I'm just back from that trip and what I would say is is that the the step function changes that we've seen are just the beginning and what we're going to see from these tools over the next 2 3 four 5 years is incredibly profound and we do think it's going to drive this kind of massive increase excuse me massive increase in productivity across the white collar Workforce and is is going to like fundamentally you know change the the the way people work and interact with technology the other thing though is that we're so early and with any like I've been a tech investor for a long time and been doing this um for a bit these things don't move in straight lines you have these periods where you have incredible excitement and incredible acceleration in businesses and then you have a digestion period and then you get the the next uh kind of knee in the curve and so you know from our standpoint we're really focused on trying to answer some big questions about what we're seeing here but from the valuation standpoint and from how you we think about where the opportunity set is um you know if you look at the growth rates of these businesses and project them out and project the Returns on Capital and the capital spending and where the free cash flows are going to come we're finding really attractive opportunities it's not across the board like we can I'm sure we'll get into stocks in a minute here but like there are areas where we think the market is massively missing the opportunity set and there are parts of the market where the risk reward is more balanced and and frankly a little bit less interesting to us so it does depend stock to stock um but that's kind of what we're trying to do when you're meeting with these leaders a during a trip like this did you come away with the sense that a lot of them are like they're foaming at the mouth that just they're just too excited and that that's a that could be a risk so look I I when you go when we frame this opportunity first like as I said we think this is like the biggest Tech structural change we've seen in 15 years at least it's a profound um opportunity set the second thing that's really unique about this is this is a public markets phenomena like there there is not a big private ecosystem around this we're not thinking that there's going to be a tremendous amount of disruption if you look at every single past Tech wave the um the incumbents lost because the newer startups were more Nimble the incumbents were kind of um tied to Legacy architectures that didn't adapt and so that created the openings for the next generation of companies whether it was first you know the sales forces and and know the in the move to the cloud or then the move to mobile with Google and Facebook like those guys had better architectures at the time they were able to scale it's different this time and the power of data in incumbency is incredibly large and profound and matters um so our our bias coming in here first off is is that this is a public markets event there's going to be some private companies obviously the frontier models will come public at some point in time but there's not this vast um taale of privates out there that are going to disrupt the baskets of big companies that we know today so that's particularly intriguing to us you know the second Point around this is is that you're right now all of the activity has been around the infrastructure build outs and all the chips and the networking semis we think that the next leg of this is on the software side and that's where we're really excited and really doing a ton of deep work all right hang with us uh broe we're going to take a quick break uh but don't go anywhere we'll be right [Music] back all right we're having a great conversation here with Goldman Sachs Asset Management portfolio manager uh Brooke Dame you mentioned Brooke that you have seen a couple of these Cycles in your lifetime I mean I thought you were 25 but you know it is it it is it is what it is compare this period this excitement this boom to that Tech runup in the late ' 90s and 2000 I was reflecting back on an earlier episode of opening bid we talked to John Chambers CIS live right through that period he did say this time feels different compared to that time when the internet was just emerging but I'm curious on your take yeah it it it's a very different environment it's a very different Market um so first off like you know the businesses that we're looking at are generating free cash flows are generating revenues driving business there was no cash they they had cash yeah exactly they had something maybe no uh yeah so like just the starting point these are real businesses with real gross margins free cash flow ability to grow um all of those things really H difference yeah and then secondly the starting point on valuations isn't anywhere near the same range it was during the bubble right so you know even the stocks that have performed incredibly well over the past year it's largely been earnings driven so sure multiples have come up a couple turns but it's not like they've gone up you know 15x um and you know yeah so from our standpoint like we're we are you know obviously like very focused on what are we paying for the assets we're buying like you know we're all about risk reward we're all about understanding future cash flows um and you know honestly like things look really attractive to us especially if you start to get inflections and growth in other parts of the market that we haven't seen today so it's very different from what it was back then and also um you know the other thing is is that back then there was just so much excitement that stocks would move on you like news announcements and and rumors and just like Randomness like chat board speculation I actually like I uh a little digression here but I was an investor you know through the late 90s and then I went back to business school in '98 and I remember going to business school I went to Cal uh go Bears um and uh when I first started school all my classmates were day trading stocks and I was like yeah I was like wait a minute like I'm an like I grew up as an investor I've learned how to do this stuff like how are you making this much money like swapping stocks on so anyway but different environment now there's definitely like some retail activity going on out there but in these core tech stocks in the core beneficiaries out there like I I feel very comfortable that the starting point we have here is attractive now there are risks there are some questions right we've been through this massive capex cycle we've only seen a couple of interesting application loads to take advantage of that like we need to see more applications we need to see the game-changing things that we think we're going to get but it's early still so that that's yeah well I got to have one for memory for you now that you brought that up so I think it was 9 9 or 2000 I was getting ready to graduate from high school and I was playing the Yahoo finance Stock Investing game it was like nobody had this thing on at all you pick a buch stocks and it was like a fantasy uh stock game yep Global Crossing was my first pick I have no idea why I picked it didn't know what the hell I was doing what was it gbrx maybe the symbol whatever it was but you were just caught into this hype it and to your point I don't think it feels like that no it it it's very different and there's a very different tenor and actually you know um if you look at how these stocks are trading and even more recently like as you went through this last quarter you saw how quickly the the software Universe pulled back um on on very rational reasons but you know that to me is actually an encouraging sign right it first of all gave us a great opportunity to build positions in companies that we love and that we think are going to compound out at high rates but also the fact the market was like hey wait a minute these companies didn't do quite as well in this quarter as we thought and then said okay let's let's take them down and and rate them down on the negative side want to get into your uh future Tech leaders Equity uh ETF but I think before we got there we have to just at least acknowledge what's happening with Nvidia now we just had valuation discussion maybe I'll impress you here and maybe I won't Whatever it is um nvidia's price to four price to sales ratio 21 times microsofts at about 12 times I think Apple's at eight times does an Nvidia which I think impacts a lot of companies in here by some by some measure are they really worth it are they really doing something to Warrant a 3.4 trillion market cap market cap yeah so um let me frame this out a little bit for you so first of all I talked earlier about how there's lots of questions we're trying to answer and we're trying to figure out the solutions too and um I'd love to pretend like I know exactly where AI is going over the next five years but like we're all trying to understand and put the pieces together to to dve investment thesises and and action in our client accounts the the the chip discussion around generative AI is a fascinating one and there's lots of nuance to it so so first off you know first order of magnitude we're seeing the initial capex builds of all these data centers to run um architectures that can can uh run these models that has massively benefited Nvidia they have this incredible moat because of their software ecosystem and because you know frankly they've they've they've got that wonderful flywheel of having developers having a bigger installed base having good software that then attracts more developers and then attracts more installed base and it's it's performing exceptionally well that said like one of our base thinkings in the world is in general capitalism works and they're making huge margins right now across what they're doing you're seeing the big hyperscalers right now invest heavily in their own Asic chips so chips that they're designing themselves to run these workloads within you know uh gcp and AWS and Azure um to help um basically reduce the cost structure and and compete with Nvidia so um we're always balancing in our investments and our thinking about stocks two things two fundamental things where are we different than the market like what's what's the fundamental Outlook the thing that we have that we think the market has yet to understand about a business or a company and then what are we paying for that asset and it's all we're always balancing those two things to figure out positions position sizing how we build portfolios um often times like you can be in a stock that you have incredible fundamental strength and power in the near- term but you think is running up against you know reasonable outcomes of fair value and then you start to think about position sizing with that but you don't want to you want to respect the fact that the fundamentals are so powerful and that you can be wrong about how long and how powerful they can be that was a long way of not really exactly answering the Nvidia question but what I would say is that we're super excited about the the rest of the chip ecosystem that have competitors I me I think there's just thinking on Nvidia that over the next 20 years it's just Nvidia and nobody even exists and this company has a clear path to A1 trillion doll market cap yeah so there's there's very little likelihood that there isn't competition out there and in fact we think the Asic guys are doing an incredible job and likely to build scale that said Nvidia is not standing still either and they're trying to forward integrate actually up the stack in some interesting ways so we really like the as6 chip vendors right now and and companies like Marvel which you know has been a long-term holding of ours is one of our top positions across our funds we think the market does not appreciate how big the Asic AI chip opportunity is for them and we good yeah and what's the play because that's what I highlighted so your top three Holdings if I got this right klaa y uh Marvel and micron yep were you concerned about that Micron quarter and guidance yeah so um with Micron specifically the the market got freaked out because they up their capex a bit and people historically memory's been a commodity industry when Supply comes on bad for margins um you know you want to be careful about that what I would say with with our outlook on Micron specifically we're so constrained on the high bandwidth memory side the capacity they're talking about adding is going to take three or four years to actually um hit you know they're they're basically pouring concrete now they also had to do some of this to take advantage of the chipsa funding that they're getting from the government so it was very logical from our standpoint about what was happening we still think as you look forward opportunities around gross margins for these company for this company specifically and for gross margins to scale is incredibly attractive so long answer is is like we still feel quite good about Micron and its position and where the valuations are for that stock and the likelihood that you know um earnings move substantially higher over the next two years and the multiple is actually really attractive on that and why is your biggest bet on K so you know K like is just benefiting from this wave of semi cap investment that we're seeing and it's a fantastic company that we think has huge opportunity to take market share from its competitors you're seeing this massive move across the world to reshore semiconductor capacity um and so in the US we have the chip act chips act there's something similar in Japan happening Europe's working on its own thing there's going to be a tremendous amount of activity to build capacity at the Leading Edge in New geographies in new areas and we think K is one of the Prime beneficiaries that's why I love uh I knew I was kind fun talking to you because you could probably literally talk about every single Tech stock yes that makes that makes great conversation there was one I would say there's one maybe outlier snap isn't is yeah what is the play there because I think if you pull up a recent 10 Q for for a meta I mean they're crushing it every quarter continues to get that much better X who knows what they're doing under Elon Mo what is the play with SNAP why why is it in this portfolio yeah so um snap is a name we've owned for a long time um we're um we're very we follow the company exceptionally closely here's what I would say for snap um they have been uh essentially replacing the engines and the wheel on the car as they're racing down the freeway so um that's a classy way of yeah exactly you know they um with the changes in privacy that we saw coming out of apple um it really impacted their business and in a more profound way than I think the market appreciated in but they're at the point now where they're coming out the other side of this um they have incredible user engagement they still have the most valuable audience globally and they've just under monetized this business right now we think that we're at the point now where they're going to start to do a much better job of monetization um you know they fixed the underlying Tech uh ad stack and platform and you know frankly if you start doing the math around where they should be driving kind of monetization per user per minute like it's significant L higher than this um at the same time you're in a market where the ad spending is recovering and people are leaning into how do we generate demand and how do we drive you know user acquisition and those things we just think snap is incredibly well positioned for that and then when you look forward at at what those growth rates could mean from a profitability and free cash flow standpoint you know because this company has taken as much restructuring actions as they have over the past two years The Leverage in the model is incredible and so when we look at our numbers and our forecast about you know where the profitability of this business could be kind of what how fast they could be growing as as demand normalizes and their Tech stack kind of you know proves them out is simply just much higher so for us like and great point to also talk about balance again you look at the size of snap in our portfolio we recognize that it's a wide range of outcomes it's a volatile stock we're always trying to manage position size but fundamentally we just think this company is massively underere earning and that as we think 2 three years forward it's going to be a much bigger company with much higher Revenue in cash flow scale and of course these are all key names in the future Tech leaders uh Equity ETF before we go I I like to leave everyone a little more inspired um than they were the day before for investors that are out there watching a lot of these tech stocks seemingly go up every single day how do you go about picking a great Tech stock how do you know you're not going to be left I mean I guess you never know but how do you know you're not going to be left holding the bag at let's say Nvidia when you buy it it's now out of top and it's going to go straight down yeah so um one one quick thing that I tell all the investors that I speak with is first of all like this is this is the most important sector in the Market Bar None like the changes we're seeing here are going to drive huge Alpha and and wealth creation for people secondly this is the most important part of the market to be active investors in you can't buy passive benchmarks around this because they're completely misaligned with where the future's going the third argument I'd say is hire someone who is a professional who's looking at these things and you know hopefully it's Goldman Sachs and the future Tech leaders fund or the tech opportunities fund but um but you know have professional help but then do your work understand where you think the growth rates of these businesses are what their free cash flows are and honestly lean into a little controversy well said uh Goldman Sachs Asset Management portfolio manager Brook D good to see you I could do this all day with you but unfortunately we have to go Brian thanks for the time that's it for the latest episode of opening bid [Music] |
QSUrWv-shsw | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QSUrWv-shsw | 2024-06-27 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Top sectors that aren't AI for investors in 2024 | well we're keeping a close eye on semiconductors here this morning the sector seeing a little bit of pressure after micron's Q3 earnings were overshadowed by the company's Q4 guidance falling short of Aid driven growth expectations and while the AI fueled rally has pushed broader markets to new heights this year let's not forget about some of the other sectors that could enhance your portfolio here with more is Jeremiah Buckley who is the Janice Henderson investors portfolio manager great to have you here with us Jeremiah I mean there's been so much crowding into the tech trade especially within the theme of generative AI but where else are you sensing some opportunities right now yeah thanks Brad thanks for having me on I appreciate it uh so there are other areas of the market that we're excited about as well so uh one example would be Healthcare so we're seeing lots of innovation and biotech as well as medical devices uh which continues to be exciting and we're seeing uh good growth there uh we're also excited about areas of consumer discretionary so we think e-commerce continues to grow at a rapid rate um but we also think that cash-rich consumers are really in a good position right now uh and so one of the areas that we like is travel uh we continue to see strong recovery globally and so those companies that are exposed the Global Travel Trends uh continue to be favorable for us and and the last one a more kind of value oriented uh area of the market is uh Capital markets you know we've seen a couple of years of uh weak Capital Market AC ity uh we think with interest rates stabilizing a lot of pent up demand we'll start to see an improvement in capital markets as well and so some of the investment Banks or a lot of the companies that facilitate Capital markets activity uh we think are also attractive here you know it's interesting we were we were speaking earlier today with Kevin Gordon of Charles Schwab who was talking about one of those sectors that you mentioned in healthcare and I just want to zero in on that for a hot second because he said as of yesterday and he was talking to us um you know about some of the areas that he sees right now as is weak but ultimately saying only two sectors with less than half of their members are trading above the 200 day moving average consumer staples and Healthcare what what does that indicate to you especially as you're looking across sectors and trying to figure out where there still is some broadening that is yet to take place yeah so the market has certainly been more aggressive and so the two sectors that you name are are certainly more defensive sectors and so they they've trailed this as people have shifted uh Capital to uh the higher growth sectors like technology and Communications but we think that there's uh attractive growth opportunities like I mentioned in in biotech and and medical devices um there's a lot of innovation you see companies that are growing you know High single digits low double digits and so we think healthcare can be both defensive uh if we do have some volatility in the markets but it also is offensive in that a lot of companies are innovating and driving good and attractive growth you you also mentioned travel a moment ago one of my favorite sectors is talk about here and continue to track when you look across what the difficulties are for maintaining margins right now and especially as many of the airlines if we're looking at that particular subset of the sector as well are trying to figure out their own routes their schedules and the ability to take on new aircraft how much of a concern does that kind of present as you're evaluating the overall health of that industry yeah so we're focused more on our ownership is in hotels as well as OTAs like booking Holdings um we think those are better business models than the airlines but obviously the airlines are important aspect of making sure that we have enough Supply uh so people can fly to those hotels um as far as the airlines I think we're seeing differentiated results between the domestic focused Airlines as well as the global Airlines um a lot of our thesis around the travel recovery is outside the US uh I think we're back to a normal trend line in the US and so with those capacity additions for the airlines that's led to some difficulty for those uh us focused Airlines but if you look at the global Airlines like a delta or United uh they've had better results um and that that's a big part of our thesis is that Global Travel recovery Jeremiah Buckley who is the Janice Henderson investors portfolio manager Jeremiah thanks so much for taking the time here with us today thanks a lot for having me on |
LQQY6vGLSX4 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQQY6vGLSX4 | 2024-06-27 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Supreme Court blocks Purdue Pharma opioid settlement | the Supreme Court rejecting the Purdue Pharma settlement that would have sent billions of dollars to treatment programs and victims of the nation's opioid epidemic but it also shielded the family largely blamed for the epidemic from future lawsuits joining us now to help break this all down are Alexis Keenan and Angel camani Alexis what exactly did the Supreme Court decide today okay so what they said is that the bankruptcy code and therefore a bankruptcy court Federal Bankruptcy Court cannot release company owners ERS who are not part of the bankruptcy proceedings from liabilities that may be pending against them so in this case you had produce former owners the billionaire members of the Sackler family they agreed to pay $6 billion into a fund to settle all of the nation's opioid litigation that includes individual plaintiffs and that also includes state and local governments and other communities that had actions before them now those plaintiffs they want that money they're disappointed here that they're not going to get access now to that settlement because now that $6 billion is off the table um but the the bankruptcy court had issue with the fact that the sackers were not part of this bankruptcy because they over a 10-year period took 11 billion dollar out of the company for their personal fortunes and then saw only six billion of that come back for uh these settlements you had justice gor Gorsuch who wrote this 54 decision calling it a milking program taking all that money out of the company and that 11 billion when you put it into perspective it amounted to 75% of Purdue's total assets at the time so this was all pre-bankruptcy that they were bringing this money out of the company now Andre over to you just get your take on this what what you think it means just interest to what do you think it means for Purdue you know looking forward as a company I I was reports saying they they've been up front saying listen we may we may not survive if the chap 11 were were rejected right and and this is why this delays a lot of the justice that not of victims are looking for uh in the the patients themselves and the families rather of the of those who took the drugs but also of the governments that are looking to create programs as well as the hospitals that are looking for reimbursement so all of that gets put on pause until the saers come back to the negotiating table but also what it does for the company is uh part of this was that the Purdue name would go away and then a new company uh sort of set up like a public trust under the name Noah Pharma would come into play and that the funds from the products it would sell which included by the way an opioid overdose reversal treatments in addition to other painkillers oxycotton being one of them that would continue as part of the brand all of the proceeds from those sales would then fund all of these settlements because as a company cannot already pay out the what is it 51 billion dollar um you know that's part of it and whatever else is pending and left and future lawsuits so all all that put together um this is sort of where the company's supposed to be going and that is now also delayed as a result all right big story thank you both for c for us appreciate an and Alexis |
v0chS_pPork | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v0chS_pPork | 2024-06-27 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Is 'stale' housing inventory keeping buyers off the market? | mortgage rates they are uh continuing to um fall amid a sluggish housing market Yahoo finances danie rero joins us here with more so Danny what are the latest moves that we're seeing in mortgages and how do you think this is going to impact really the industry moving forward Ali mortgages are on the decline and they have been for four consecutive months and rates actually hit the lowest since April the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate ticked down to 6.86% this week that's according to Freddy Mack data now despite this pullback in borrowing cost rates are still flirting around that 7% so many homeowners are still enjoying those lower mortgage rates and staying put in their home while potential buyers are really challenged with these affordability uh uh hurdles right now in the housing market and this has impacted housing activity if we look at pending home sales the a leading indicator to the housing sector that fell 2.1% % in May that's according to the National assoc Association of Realtors and on a yearly basis pending transactions are still down 6.6% so very sluggish uh recovery for this housing market it sounds like the same themes Daniel can to play out demand you talked to housing analysts so demand's there but affordability is just a problem yeah home prices are just so expensive right now there's no inventory is that the issue well it's stale inventory I was looking at some data today from redin they said 60% of the listings the active listings of homes that are out there are stale meaning that people are not really interested in the homes that are really out there and that obviously depends on a customer basis what what you're looking for in a home but we also have to realize that even the pandemic boom towns are not there's people are relocating they have to move back whether they have to go back to the office right people are not flocking to these certain areas where affordable homes are available right so we're seeing kind of this slowish movement of activity in uh Florida Texas the Southern and midwest regions which during the pandemic were such a great uh uh booming I would say during that time but yes there is demand really people are not impressed with what is listed out there which is why people are cutting home prices right now all right Danny thank you I always appreciate it |
OXZbaqOX7_g | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OXZbaqOX7_g | 2024-06-27 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Investors should tilt toward 'inflation-sensitive assets': Strategist | investors weigh a new batch of economic data including a key inflation reading on Friday pce joining us now is Tom hanlin US Bank wealth management senior investment strategist and Tom let's start with some of that econ data that we got this morning in particular continuing claims that number hitting the highest level in more than two years do you see this as a normalization of the labor market or is it an indicator that higher rates are hurting the US economy yeah thanks Alexander you know we saw the the this morning uh it suggests that the fed's you know rates are are having an impact on the economy and and in the way that they are anticipating which is kind of gently slowing the labor market gently slowing investment and and economic activity so that they can go ahead and move forward then with to moving forward to interest rate Cuts perhaps in the second half in the fourth quarter of this year so that was kind of a almost like a bad news as good news type of economic print this morning where the the numbers wer so bad to to suggest that we're having a sudden contraction in the econom but that the these rates are starting to have an impact you know Thomas I read through your notes you sound constructive on the stock market Tom but maybe you know the vibe I get is kind of cautiously constructive am I reading that right Tom yeah Josh if we look at just the kind of the pillars of growth inflation and interest rates you know even though the data was a little soft it's still a positive economy inflation will get a new reading tomorrow on the pce as Alexandra alluded to you know we we have positive but decelerating inflation and you know treasury yields have kind of stabilized here around four and a quarter we think that's a pretty good setup for stocks to to price higher at least at the broad index level and then as you mentioned earlier in terms of performance we still think those secular growth you large cap Tech names are still likely to carry the market forward just because that's where you see the greatest visibility in terms of sales and earnings growth but we pair those those technology or Investments with some uh some additional sectors like those dividend paying sectors like consumer staples and some Select Healthcare names and and some you know some of those like non-office real estate sectors where if you do get rate Cuts in the second half of the year you get some less competition from from treasury yields and that kind of helps those dividend payers look more attractive so Tom in terms of portfolio positioning considering that there are some overhanging risks we don't know if and when we are going to be seeing those rate Cuts would you say um would you advise your clients to be more offensive or defensive at this point yeah Alexander you know our recommendations have been to kind of tilt more to those towards those positive growth and inflation sensitive assets so for typical Diversified investor they've got some some allocations to stocks and bonds and and things we call real assets we would have some of that money out of core bonds and into those us large cap equities but also pairing that with things like inflation protected bonds and and commodities again inflation's coming down but it's still above the fed's target rate it's still positive and typically those assets tend to do well in that scenario you know I want to get your take on the AI trade as well which of course has been a big theme for investors Micron you know reported last night that stock you know roared into that print time I mean investors just bet that was a another another name that was going to benefit from this Mega AI Trend it's getting hit today afterwards just as a strategist how were you thinking about that Trend Tom and how do you want to invest in it if at all yeah Josh you we we still see AI in this discovery phase and so the ultimate demand for for for all the feed stock into it and and the semiconductors and the cloud and the uh kind of the overlay of of of the US user interface that's still in in play in terms of how many Industries and how many companies see a productivity benefit in that if we look at early in the kind of the robotics uh and automations phase you it took a while to figure out that that was going to move into everything from the primary economy like Mining and farming all the way into medical devices you know robot assisted surgeries and into the home in terms of like robotic vacuum so we still still think that AI is in an early stage of of discovery of what it can do and what the ultimate users will will will do with it in terms of productivity that will help determine ultimately the you know the the ultimate you know opportunity set there so we still think it's early we still think there's there's room for those those assets supporting the AI investment continue to run but again in order to be a little bit more defensive we would pair those again with some of those more dividend oriented opportunities just to give you a little bit more ballast in that Equity portfolio and Tom we have a little thing coming up in November the US election but we're seeing markets significantly outperform typical election years given that do you view the election as a potential risk to stocks and how should uh investors be positioning their portfolio ahead of November you it's a it's a unique setup Alexander I think this is the first time since in the post-war uh time when you've had a uh a debate occur this early in in June you typically go through a process of the conventions and the nominees and you start to see the platforms from each candidate and then you have a debate to kind of flesh out the differences between the candidates so definitely a unique setup for for this evening's debate you the work we've done at US Bank and and we published it you can you can find it doing a web search for for how elections impact markets is we still find a much more significant impact of that setup of growth and inflation and interest rates then ultimately which party resides in the white house or has control of either house of Congress so we think this is still a good setup for stocks leading into the election and typically you do have positive performance on on election years where you have a candidate up for re-election as is President Biden but again the path forward for the stock market is more likely to be determined by you know how do how does economic data come in what's the FED path around interest rates is inflation coming back to Target and and that'll have a much stronger influence on Capital market performance than perhaps the outcomes on November 5th Tom we'll get you out of here on this for fixed income uh investors who are listing right Tom what's what's your guidance what's your advice to them you know when we say we're tilted towards equities and real assets doesn't mean we don't like fixed income here we still think client should have a healthy allocation there within within the fixed income of the bond market we still see opportunities for clients that don't pay taxes for those those sort of Institutions we see areas around those those part of the mortgage Market that's not backed by agencies you know home prices are still strong uh home owners are still having supported by a strong labor market and wage goow so those non- agency mortgages within kind of those osing caic areas the bond market for taxable investors we still still see a lot of value in municipal bonds and being able to go out in maturities taking that extra yield that you get and also high yield municipal bonds where default rates are historically pretty low and and investors can earn additional yield there Tom always good to see you and have you on the show thanks for joining us Josh Alexander thank you so much |
9XUA7uJ-JfQ | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9XUA7uJ-JfQ | 2024-06-27 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | New Boeing whistleblower raises maintenance practice concerns | Boeing is reportedly facing new whistleblower claims a former mechanic allegedly observing substandard manufacturing and maintenance practices on the 787's forward pressure bulkhead that's that Dome shaped piece located in the Jet's nose and it's critical for maintaining CRA cabin pressure now that former employee alleged that he was fired after raising those concerns he was fired by Spirit which he was working on this spirit aircraft at a Boeing hanger in Washington when this occurred that was and then later at a spirit supplier he says that basically they had to put Fasteners into that Dome that we were talking about and holes were drilled that made the Fasteners not quite fit into those holes so he raised those concerns he said by the way that those changes were made without Boeing's permission according to a statement he then moving forward says that he was fired from Spirit after reporting those issues he was fired in March of this year so this is relatively recent Boeing then saying that they had addressed some of those concerns so it's just the latest example though of this continued challenge shaa for Boeing with regards to these safety concerns from whistleblowers it certainly is and obviously it's very worrisome here in spirit to a statement to Bloomberg I believe saying that our leadership is is aware of the allegations and looking into the matter we encourage all Spirit employees with concerns to come forward safe in knowing they will be protected but you're exactly right what this points to or what this follows has been a series of whistleblower complaints pointed at Boeing pointed at its suppliers over some of the manufacturing processes that have been in place at the plane manufacturer here for quite some time the FAA has received more than 11 times as many Boeing whistleblower reports in the first five months of this year compared to all of 2023 so that really puts that in perspective here the increase obviously coming after that fuse slge uh blew off a plane in mid-flight back in the beginning of the year in January here so we do have this renewed focus on Boeing right now we are still seeing shares up just around 9/10 of a percent obviously the stock has been under a tremendous amount of pressure going back to that uh incident in mid January here so again lots of questions from analysts just about what exactly the future looks like under for Boeing they will be under a new CEO in the new year so exactly what management looks like what some of the issues um how they are going to address some of the issues that have been raised over the last five or six months of course is a critical question here at this point and we know that we've heard from Boeing's Uh current CEO Dave coun saying that they are doing all they can to address some of the issues coming out saying that they are being uh proactive in trying to address some of those complaints but again we will see how this all shakes out uh for Boeing in the end |
1vyxJsij86U | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vyxJsij86U | 2024-06-27 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Federal judges halt part of Biden's student loan relief plan | [Music] a key Biden administration's student loan relief plan has been put on hold two federal judges in Kansas and Missouri halting parts of the administration's income-driven repayment plan known as save until they rule on the cases to discuss we've got yaho finance's very own Rick Newman here with more Rick what what do we know about this so far state of chaos uh so the safe plan uh as you mentioned is income driven repayments so uh you can have your payments reduced based on uh a history of repayment and uh based on your your level of income um so I'm not sure it's entirely clear how this legal action is going to affect the 5 million people who are uh enrolled in this plan um and I think it just so first of all it doesn't end the litigation they they they put they put injunctions in place pending the outcome of litigation uh and it wasn't for the whole plan they didn't give the plaintiffs everything they wanted they gave them part of what they asked for so uh I'm not sure there's a bottom line here for borrowers I think the best thing anybody can do is go to the government website that handles this it's student aid.gov and right there is a button uh to see if you qualify for debt relief and then sort of follow the prompts uh and this is going to un this is going to unfold over coming weeks and months but I think at the broader picture here Biden himself said uh he has said many times he doesn't he he doesn't think the president whether it's him or somebody else has the authority to do this through executive order that it requires Congress to pass a law that would put uh put debt relief into place and make it a matter of law rather than policy and uh I I'm I think the White House completely expected all of these legal challenges remember the Supreme Court uh last year shot down uh Biden's overreaching his overarching Deb relief plan that would have um would have canceled or reduced debt for almost all student Borrowers so the Supreme Court canel that uh we have now have other courts cancelling parts of what Biden's trying to do and uh we're I think this I think we're going to see just ongoing legal challenges here the Biden campaign they had talked about this even before taking office campaigned on it uh and now it seems like for every year during the administration we've continued to see more of an effort to push student loan debt forgiveness how do we expect this to come up now that the campaigning is beginning all over again I mean honestly who knows I mean so just to briefly go back to 2020 so Biden was not the foremost advocate of debt relief I mean we had Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren say basically saying forgive all student debt um and there's like well over one trillion I mean trillion dollar we're talking about a lot of money here um and Biden said no I don't think we can go that far he said I I might do some modified so what did Biden did try to do is re uh forgive up uh 10,000 FR many borrowers and then up to 20,000 for some other borrowers that's what the Supreme Court shot down I think the Biden campaign would say now as it says before this means we need to elect Democrats we we need to have a clean sweep of Democrats uh in the White House and in Congress so that we can try to pass this as a law and get this done but worth pointing out um we did have a clean sweep by democrats in the first two years of bides administration in 2020 that's right uh Democrats controlled both houses of Congress during Biden's first two years and Biden could not get student debt relief done then I mean this is not this is controversial I mean whether this is a good idea I mean a lot of people who say if you're going to commit and we again lots of money here if you're going to commit $500 billion doll or a trillion dollars of uh government money to some kind of social Aid this is not the best way to Target it better to Target at uh working moms for example um Child Care Aid um early a head start you know early childhood education you get more bang for the buck that way I mean affect a for higher inome people relative to the whole pop but this fight is just I mean this fight could just go on in perpetuity because uh I think uh it is a big problem for a lot of people who just cannot get out out from under the amount of debt they have they want some help but it's hard getting the help delivered yeah we'll see how it comes up on the debate stage and student aid.gov follow that you know bookmark that and follow it if you're a student loan borrower if you qualify y Rick Newman thanks so much thanks appreciate it |
DDNBEdhFoSE | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DDNBEdhFoSE | 2024-06-27 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Pending home sales dip, but are there signs of a turning point? | new housing data out this morning in a big week for the sector here we've got pending home sales this tracks the number of housing contracts that have been signed but the transaction is not yet complete it's seen as a leading indicator of existing home sales typically it takes one to two months to a close on to ultimately close on a home and here with the numbers we've got yaho finances Danny Romero here Danny you've been tracking this one so what do we know Brad high home prices and elevated mortgage rates are keeping would be buyers away from the housing market data from the National Association of Realtors shows that pending home sales a leading indicator for the housing sector fell 2.1% in May from the month prior and on a yearly basis pending transactions are down 6.6% now regionally the Midwest and the South posted a drop in contract signings in May from the month before and that could be because there's not a lot of people relocating to those areas that's a very different picture from the pandemic days meanwhile the Northeast and the West recorded some gains Brad so Danny put these numbers into context for us do they point to any recovery for the housing market look Brad industry experts expect mortgage rates to be moderately lower which will in turn boost more housing activity and stabilize home prices yet now there are some signs of a of a turning point data from red finin shows that the typical home is selling for less than its listing price and and that is the first time since that's happened since the pandemic the likelihood of home selling below asking price is rising because there's more Supply and less demand meanwhile mortgage rates are sitting at their lowest average in 3 months but that's still not enough for buyers to jump into this housing market data from Goldman Sachs shows that about 95% of mortgage bar borrowers have an interest rate below the current rate and almost 80% of rates are more than 2 percent percentage points below market rate so this recovery could take a little bit longer as these mortgage rates and rates interest rates remain elevated Brad yeah the redin data that you had mentioned before saying a typical us home that sold during the four weeks ending June 23rd sold for 310 of a percent less than its asking price interesting data there thanks so much for breaking it Down Danny appreciate it |
VjtG12aFoJM | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VjtG12aFoJM | 2024-06-27 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Micron is still 'trending in the right direction': Analyst | let's take a look at Micron because Shares are in the red this morning on the back of its earnings print despite beating the Street's Q3 expectations driven by demand for its AI chips micron's Q4 guidance overshadowing those results the chipmaker's revenue guidance is in line with expectations ultimately though investors are viewing that as a huge disappointment the stock has been on a tear though since the start of the year and taking a look at those year- to-day gains up nearly 67% here with a deeper dive into these results and ultimately what it tells us us about the AI excitement we want to bring in Angelo Zeno he's cf's research analyst along with Jake Silverman Bloomberg intelligence analyst great to see and have both of you Angel let me start with you in terms of the streets reaction here we are seeing a pressure on Micron shares is that the right read of this report because there does seem to be a lot of anecdotes and a lot of data points to be excited about in this print yeah now so as far as kind of you know the reaction to the stock price here I mean fairly muted in nature and you know maybe rightfully so I mean you kind of saw you know what they did last quarter and it was kind of a nice beaten raise on both kind of the top and the bottom line side of things I think going into the print here there was an expectation out there from the street that um you would again see kind of a very nice beat and ra raise type quarter you didn't necessarily get that specifically on the top line side of things but that said you mean you did get a lot of kind of um good items and that we did see I mean pricing looked very good on both the D and Nan side of things um increasing about 20% uh sequentially on both side of things margins look like that you know they're holding up fairly well um and you know improving the trajectory looks pretty good on that side of things but you know I think the other thing maybe holding up the street a little bit is also kind of the capex guidance side of things um the good thing is that they kind of threw it out there now and um we now you know we now have that unknown kind of thrown out there for 2025 and you you're looking at mid-30s type of capex uh or Capital intensity rate going into next year probably compares to about 32% here this year so it's going to grow faster than Revenue next year but that should be expected because of the the growth opportunities there related to high bandwidth memory um so overall you know somewhat of a mixed picture but you know Micron is kind of trending in the right direction here Jake want to get your reaction as well here I mean the company is talking about being able to drive robust price increases industry Supply demand conditions continue to improve rapidly growing AI demand enabling to grow the revenue by over 50% in this most recent quarter I mean what what is the read through especially if things are as mixed as investors and analysts like Angelo are saying this morning yeah so overall I mean we we believe that the fundamentals remain pretty positive we're still remaining pretty optimistic on ai ai is actually a pretty you know early stages for for micron specifically um they Supply hbm into Nvidia h200 and they're going to expand into other customers as as well as potentially uh additional products within a uh nvidia's AI portfolio such as their Blackwell gpus so you know overall we don't think this is specific read through over in into AI itself um as long as hyperscale capex continues to uh increase quarter to quarter and there's potentially some upward bias there as well um we remain pretty optimistic overall on AI spend and we believe that Micron is going to be a particularly strong beneficiary of this Angela we also saw margins uh recover quicker than anticipated here in the most recent quarter is this a trend that you see continuing uh in the quarter the current quarter and then the quarters to come we do um you know again this is you know they're coming out of a pretty nasty downturn in 2023 we did see them finally get to profitability in that February quarter um two quarters ago it was the first time in in you know at the five consecutive quarters of year year declines um in terms or year-over-year uh negative um earnings kind of looked at them momentum continued in the May quarter here but as you kind of look we think into 2025 um the there should continue to be a favorable pricing landscape uh high band with memory takes up a lot more wafer Supply out there part of the reason that you have the need for the higher capex numbers out there but also you know that will continue to improve the the pricing landscape the mix overall mix for micron and thus we do expect them to hit record um gross margins by the second half of calendar year 20 2 so that trajectory should continue to improve ultimately we think by the time you end this cycle they could potentially see um gross margins kind of get to 50% or even north of that I mean in the meantime Angelo it sounds like those margins are really going to be pressed by by Capital expenditures you know exactly what type of spending profile do you expect a micron to continue to exhibit uh as as they are citing demand is the reason to spend further yeah I mean listen I think you kind of look at 2024 here and and that is a recovery year for the memory industry right um so you you actually have lower cap expend in 2024 vers um you know or or lower capacity in 2024 versus 2023 that's going to kind of bump back up um in 2025 now um you know again the capex number in 25 if you're looking at Capital intensity ratio you know nor somewhere in the mid mid-30s maybe we're talking about a 13 or 14 billion or so um you know run rate for uh capex next year now that said I mean again it's all based on kind of the growth opportunities tied to these AI servers High bin withd memory and um you know we think that again is is the right way to look at this now you you kind of look going into next year um I think maybe the bigger question mark out there isn't necessarily what micron's doing but as you kind of hit more of an ex uh expansionary year in 2025 from a recovery year this year what are some of the competitors going to do um what is Samsung going to do in terms of some of their capex number which is the big fish out there so um you know that has historically kind of been the concern with these kind of memory upturns um so maybe that is also kind of a little bit of a readr that you're seeing from some investors out there as we now kind of transition the story from recovery to expansionary phase Jake real quick going back to what you were just saying a minute ago you said that you were pretty optimistic overall in an AI spend you think micron's well positioned within that space my question you at least comparing that to what we're seeing from the streets reaction to these results I think going into this many people were asking whether or not this report was going to show any hints of a Slowdown in terms of AI demand my takeaway at least looking at this report is very much Supply is still trying to catch up with demand is that a story that you don't really see changing anytime soon no I don't think it really is going to change you know I pretty much agree I think Supply remains tight demand continues to increase uh and hyping with memory isn't the only story they're also benefiting from other AI Rel products like high-capacity Dam modules um solid state drives so you know ultimately we just think that uh pricing will continue to improve as Supply remains tight uh AI spend continues to uh increase and you know traditional servers smartphones and PCs you know that demand recovers even at a more modest pace so yeah ultimately we we don't we remain pretty favorable on on on micron's AI opportunity so it's both high bandwidth memory as well as other a related products Angelo Zeno CF research analyst and Jake Silverman who is the Bloomberg intelligence analyst great to have both of you here thanks so much for discussing Micron with us this morning |
10iiWGjqpc0 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=10iiWGjqpc0 | 2024-06-27 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Jumpstart your side hustle with these tips | and guys if you're looking to get a few extra bucks in your pocket a side hustle could be a good option for you a market watch study found that more than half of Americans have adopted a side hustle to supplement their primary source of income in the last year and our next guest has some tips on how to maximize your side hustle to help benefit your financial goals let's welcome in Josh Jones capus Chief Revenue officer great to have you here with us Josh so when is it time to turn your side Hustle into your main hustle yeah first off thanks for having me um but I mean the the easy answer to that is if your side hustle is supplementing your income completely it's an easy switch uh not everybody is as lucky as that uh at least to start but the nice thing about side hustles is it's something that your financial life shouldn't depend on immediately it's you have your full-time job if you're able to card out extra time to establish secondary source of income it gives you the ability to test out a career that you might be interested in without taking that Financial Risk uh so I'm a big supporter and passionate about the topic I myself have a side hustle I'm a real estate investor uh I'm very supportive of it and I think many people have the ability to start a side Hustle leveraging the digital economy being becoming a blogger a remote tutoring um you know influencers have kind of run wild with it R romanticizing the idea about becoming an entrepreneur I don't want to undermine how difficult it really is uh but it is worth a shot got starting that side hustle and having that secondary source of income yeah we've got a really strong wave of very good video editors out there right now who are influencers on social media and at the end of the day anybody who is kind of capitalizing on their side hustle needs to figure out how they monetize it what are those first steps in figuring out even how to monetize it if it's not as clearcut as someone giving you a check for side work that you're doing or if you have a W4 or I9 whatever the case may be and you're building it from the ground up yeah I think the first thing the easiest thing to do is figure out what you're good at right don't follow your passion F follow your natural talents uh so if you are great or and and passionate about video editing let you know follow through with that I think the next steps are really sizing the Demand right it's easy to think of something that could potentially generate money but is there demand uh for that product or that service that you're planning to offer offer locally or digitally uh I think after that the next step really would be to understand what somebody's willing to pay for that product or service and lastly is that uh is that income that you're able to generate from your product and service worth your time what what needs to be invested uh into the business to get it to a place where you're happy with the income that you're generating and and naturally getting to you know the point of what is the growth opportunity can you eventually make this your full-time job or is this your you know tow into becoming an entrepreneur uh or is it a test into another career without taking that risk entirely of of front by making that switch without seeing uh what works and what doesn't when can you effectively recognize that that you're your side hustle is not just enough to support your current life but but also may have a growth opportunity to be a bigger business as well yeah you know I mean with what with what I do daily you know we we lend to small businesses and I see over over 40,000 applications monthly uh of people looking for Capital to grow their business and each one of those businesses for the most part has identified an opportunity for growth so I think it's important to not only get to a level of scale that you can supplement your income but really understanding what is the path forward is it do I have the ability to eventually hire do I have the ability to expand and and really what do I ultimately want out of it because a lot of times people they they fall in love with the idea of being a business owner but there are plenty of sleepless nights I've done it myself uh you value your employees over yourself they're the lifeblood of your business and those are really scary moments uh and when you're growing your business you really have to identify okay it what do I want out of this is it more free time is it spent to spend time with my friends and family because that entrepreneurship path looks a lot different than one that is let me maximize something let me make it large let me have an exit strategy or let me just make sure that this is a family business that I I I built something that is Legacy Worthy and I can hand down to my family um so I think it's really understanding your motivation is it really it will help you determine what you want to do with your side also great tips there Josh Jones capus Chief Revenue officer thanks so much for taking the time Josh yeah thank you very much certainly |
KUdcP9A9uVQ | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KUdcP9A9uVQ | 2024-06-27 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Expect IPO debuts to rise in 2025 and 2026: Analyst | [Music] the fast fashioned giant shien confidentially filed paperwork to list on the London Stock Exchange that's according to several reports now the retailer has strong ties to China previously did try to confidentially file in the US but failed to win broader support in part due to its use of forced labor practi practices in its supply chain so what does this tell us about the state of play for IPOs and Company listing decisions more on this we read in Doug Adam City's co-head of equity Capital markets Doug thanks for coming in studio with us I bring up the example of Sheen just to get us started about how companies are thinking about where they're going to list when they're making these decisions what do you think is the biggest driver of that right now I think part of it depends a little bit on U first thank you for having me uh today really appreciate it uh pleasure to be here uh part of the decision goes into um where's their client base how do they think about their business um how well are they known in certain markets where the comparables um that they may look to for um from a valuation perspective um and also where the target investor universe is so there's a lot of different dynamics that go into um how companies think about uh the IPO process where to list and importantly when to list we've seen uh a pretty significant increase in activity as you know uh versus where we were last year at this point um we're up about 80% in the US uh similar levels globally and I think that it's a very constructive environment for um companies and for investors yeah Doug talk to us a little bit more about that activity because we certainly have seen an increase in the IPO activity going back over the last couple of months what does that signal just in terms of the second half of the Year lots of uncertainty obviously when it comes to the FED when it comes to rates when it even comes to the election do you think we'll see some of that IPO activity sidelined until towards the end of the year or how are companies thinking about that look the the pipeline is absolutely building um the dialogue is great I think companies are still trying to work through some of that part of it is the market dynamics but part of it is their own uh performance I think lots of companies are going through their forecasting exercises how would they have done if they were a public company and so the one thing we do know is companies will be better prepared to be public companies when they come uh I'm not sure if it's all going to come in the second half of 2024 probably not we're you know when we think about the windows of going public between now and the end of the year we've got a couple of windows but there's a lot of uncertainty as as you talk about I do think 25 and 26 are we're going to see a significant amount of that pipeline uh come to Market and what's the Catalyst for those companies getting off the sine is it just simply looking at their business I guess how much of the macro factors have been factoring into some of these decisions versus just the the stability of their own balance sheet I think the the macro factors are influencing uh individual company performance and so they're trying to factor that and so we spent a lot of times with companies talking about what are their kpis that they'd go to market and how would they perform relative to those kpis if they had been public um and importantly against their forecast how would they perform and so given the rate envirment given um some of the economic aspects given regulatory uh challenges that some companies face you know that's factored into it and so they're trying to weigh all of this and decide when is the right time to go public and be a good public company not just go public obviously the rate cycle is one big factor for these companies but I'm curious about from an equity's perspective just the crazy valuations that we've seen are you seeing that have an impact on what companies are expecting when it comes to valuations heading into IPOs are they looking around and thinking how do I not have the biggest valuation possible before this IPO yeah valuations are certainly one of the drivers for companies to go public but it's one of the drivers you know um often times it's what does it mean to be a public company what is the Strategic value of being a public company The Branding so yes it's important for going public but then this sustainability of that in the aftermarket also becomes important and so lots of companies trying to evaluate you know when is the right time to go how do I think about valuation near term but also longer term and what are the growth and and margin aspects that they're trying to project to the market what are you seeing in terms of the take private activity because I believe right around record levels right yeah we are look there there are a lot of companies you know well we we focus on what the indexes have done and the S&P is up 15% uh year to date and you when you look at the equal weighted index not every company has actually performed at that level Nvidia is about a third of that performance year to date and so lots of companies haven't been um caught in this updraft that we've seen in in the broader Equity markets and so for some of them they have to wonder whether or not they're getting properly valued in the public market so we have seen an increase in activity of companies thinking about you know am I better valued in the private Market than in the public market at this period in time what is that decision looking like then for those companies do you expect to your point Shauna do you expect that to continue to be a trend moving forward I think you know there's a lot of money in private Equity hands it's you know closing in on $3 trillion and you folks have talked about it on many of your your broadcasts as well so you know the real question is how do we think about the trade-off of being a public company the value of being a public company versus the value of being a private company and so every company kind of evaluates that their boards evaluate the management teams evaluate it and you know really trying to figure out how get how best to get value for all of their stakeholders all right Doug we got to leave it there but thank you so much for joining us we really apprciate it thanks for coming in as well that was Doug Adams he is City's co-head of equity Capital markets |