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1BkNALwlgS0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1BkNALwlgS0

2024-07-08 00:00:00

Yahoo Finance

Piper Sandler strategist explains why he's dropping his S&P 500 price target

the S&P 500 up over 16% so far this year and closing Friday at its 34th record high of the year that run is many firms boosting their year on targets for the S&P 500 but One bank has decided to drop coverage of the index all together actually dropping their coverage of their year-end Target for the index behind that call we have Michael cantrowitz he's Piper Sandler's co-chief investment strategist Michael thanks so much for being here I want to pull up a quote from your note on this you say talking about the S&P 500 to communicate investment insights to investors has become an exercise in futility I was giggling when this note came out because you definitely sound a little bit peeved by the AI rally is that what drove this call no no not not at all and it's not a change to my views you know we've been bullish all year and I'm still constructive on on larger cap equities it's more about you know in the last few months as I was trying to think about raising my target again um I didn't really feel feel that comfortable being intellectually honest saying that I can have a high conviction view of where the S&P is going to end up nor do I did I think it really adds value to our clients who are institutional investors who it's not about whether the Market's going up or down but really what you have to own and what you have to avoid and we've seen correlations of stocks within the S&P 500 Dro to about a 25e low uh compared to the 500 so there's really there diminishing value when talking about the market because uh again most stocks are not trading like the market and Michael given that I guess for investors out there trying to figure out what happens next you are still constructive on us equities you do still see opportunities so if it's not within or you don't think maybe it's helpful for investors to have a bull versus be call right now on the S&P 500 what should investors be looking for what are some of the more helpful views that you think at this point that tell us a better story about where that opportunity is sure yeah and again it's not I think you have to have a bullish and bearish View and and we are bullish um but you know again if I covered apple or Microsoft and I was bullish on apple or Microsoft and said you know you know the conclusion is clear go buy apple or Microsoft if you're bullish on the S&P 500 this year for an Institutional Investor that's not buying the index well how does that really help them because you look at the market this year we're up 16 177% typically that much of a rally would would come along with massive risk on leadership small caps outperforming and small caps as we sit here year-to date have have returned zero uh and so we've been focused on where to invest and for the last two years we've been big bulls on larger quality profitable names that essentially if economy is a scale that can sustain their businesses uh the the best amidst this higher interest rate environment and so it's still very much a large cap growth call avoiding smaller companies with weaker fundamentals yeah I I heard you mention quality and I want to jump in on that because you say that you continue to emphasize quality at a reasonable price where does that exist because isn't part of the problem the fact that quality valuations have really been bit up since the bottom in late 2022 yeah well much of the the the increase in valuations from late 2022 was just a recapture of the evaluations that were lost during that bare market so really that was much of 23 just kind of a give back uh on the 2022 bare Market from here we haven't seen as much of a rapid Improvement in valuations this year uh at the index level again certain stocks have seen PE expansion so we're looking for companies that have continued to um outpace their peers in terms of earnings growth uh that are have the highest level of profitability and we're looking for those two types of attributes along with companies that have valuations that are not the most expensive expensive so it's you kind of have to sacrifice a little bit of growth perhaps in quality to find names that aren't egregiously expensive but it's that sweet spot which we call Quality a reasonable price and and we've got in the S&P 500 50 names that have beaten the index this year uh and it's not just about all AI or All Tech

ropAfjVczgs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ropAfjVczgs

2024-07-05 00:00:00

Yahoo Finance

Could Gladiator II and Wicked be the next 'Barbenheimer'?

but we begin here with the summer box office which is heating up with sequels leading Fourth of July weekend inside out to is crossing the $500 million Mark domestically and Despicable Me for opening strong on Wednesday with a gross of $27 million we could also see a potential barbin Heimer 2.0 later this year from more on the state of the box office we're bringing in Paul D Dar garbedian senior media Analyst at comcore Paul it is good to see you so maybe to start off kind of big picture here Paul you know the box office this summer how we doing Paul how healthy does it look to you relative to what we saw last summer well Josh if we were sitting here about a month and a half ago I would have said well it's pretty bad because we got off to a rather slow start for the summer of 2024 with the Fall Guy a great movie but opened to 27 and a half million compare and contrast that with the opening weekend of the summer in 23 with Guardians of the Galaxy volume 3 opening to $118 million we then had a rather slow Memorial weekend and by rather slow I mean one of the slowest Memorial weekends at the box office in history but what a difference a month or a month and a half can make and uh we saw signs of life in early June with bad boys ride or die opening uh Beyond expectations at about 57.5 million but then the big one inside out too it opened about four weekends Z go it's coming into its fourth weekend that film's at $1.12 billion in global box office as we speak Josh pretty and we and now we have Despicable me4 uh already has earned almost $50 million domestically heading into its first weekend having open on Wednesday uh those that the two-day number is close to 50 million we're expecting perhaps another 80 million at com score this weekend for that film and that could be 120 130 million opening 5 days for Despicable me4 so it is the summer of sequels no doubt more to come so sound like summer sequels and maybe some better performances than than maybe someone had initially expected Paul I'm just curious when you when you do though look at the overall box office the industry poll how does it Stack Up pre pandemic yeah that's a that's a different story and it it really is the impact of of course the pandemic impacted everything in terms of box office but we're we're definitely recovering but then strikes hit and that threw the release calendar into disarray and that effectively kind of um you know it disrupted the calendar so much this year that we really didn't get started in terms of big box office to early June I mean we had some big movies early on like Dune Dune 2 and others but we the comparisons to last year were really tough so right now we're running about 18.8% behind last year year to date at this point but just just about 6 weeks ago we were running down near we were down nearly 28% so in the court what a difference a few movies and some time makes in terms of knocking down that year-to-date deficit of course we have twisters on the way Deadpool in Wolverine is going to be a the next hundred million opener of 2024 and inside out too so far the only movie to open with over $100 million domestically this year but that's going to change here with uh Deadpool and Wolverine and Twisters I think is a total sleeper although maybe not now cuz we're talking about it do you think Paul though something kind of structurally has changed though just bigger picture there's just so much good content now at home right I mean what I can stream you know thanks to for example Netflix I don't know if you saw it I mean baby reindeer amazing Paul right rip Ripley incredible and I don't own Netflix stock just for viewers this is pure pure you know pure neutral reviews by Jos but it's such good content Paul that's available now to the consumer how much just harder it is to get Josh Lipton off his couch to schlep to a theater which by the way isn't all that cheap either well I think it's relatively an expensive to other outside of the home activities if you look at traveling you know to another uh State country island somewhere um it's very expensive to travel also sporting events uh concerts very expensive if families are taking themselves and all the kids out this weekend to to see Despicable Me for or inside out too again it's a relative bargain but appropo to what you asked I think there is more selectivity on the part of consumers who have so much choice and you just mentioned a lot of great shows I love streaming as well but you're not going to sit out going to the movie theater for a movie like Dune 2 Inside Out 2 Despicable Me 4 I mean really is that differentiator is that communal and immersive experience in theater but I agree with you it takes a lot more to get people off their couch and out to the movie theater but when it happens I mean look at barbin Heimer last year that phenomenon you alluded to this in your opening was that you know Wicked and Gladiator 2 are opening on the same day November 22nd could there be another barbin Heimer in the offing I don't know that anything will be that but certainly it's cool to have those two movies and you know opening on that same date and it creates a conversation around going to the movies that's something you can only get going out to the movie theater it's that communal experience it also these experiences go viral I mean the movie theater is a hub of social influence and we saw that play out with Barbie last year certainly and Oppenheimer and there's more good movies on the way I think the fall and holiday are really loaded with great films you got another Joker film coming out you got Moana 2 which was going to go streaming now going to the committed to the movie theater a lot of other great movies that mix Wicked Gladiator 2 among others all right Paul you you convinced me maybe I need to get out of the house more I have to get out the house more often my wife tells me the same thing Paul thank you so much for joining us have a great weekend thank you Josh you too have a good one

FhD92Ypz-qE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FhD92Ypz-qE

2024-07-05 00:00:00

Yahoo Finance

Megacaps, Japanese bonds, crypto: Market trends this week

the S&P 500 NASDAQ post record closes to end this holiday shortened week investors embracing the idea that the June jobs report may push the FED closer to that rate cut Yahoo finances Jared blicker joins us here with more on the trading day takeaways Jared well thank you Josh I think the mega caps you know we talk about concentration you can't talk about it enough so I'm saying record Mega cap highs we had four today amid Christmas and July that's a reference to this seasonality this bullish seasonality that we've had so I'm not going to show any any seasonality Maps but I do want to show the mega caps and four out of the four out of the seven Magnificent Seven posted records today Microsoft alphabet apple and meta Amazon just missed it by less than a dollar in vide read there but I just think that kind of tells the whole story there we have this bullish seasonality and what do markets have the tenacity to do go higher and that's what we're saying is it just big Tech Jared is that all we have no and no it's more to the story well you know I've been seeing software catch up recently so I like igv as a software ETF that just is just shy of record high so we are seeing it's kind of spread into some other areas but is software that different from Tech you know the whole AI story um let me just show you this is the NASDAQ 100 versus a Russell 2000 this goes all the way back to the late 1980s here is the dotc bubble and what you will notice is we are higher so small caps are even at less valuation premium to the large caps and I'm using the NASDAQ 100 and the Russell 2000 proxies then that Tech bubble that we had 24 years ago so something is a little bit different all right Jared blre Point number two intervention is it NY in Japan the NY you don't hear that word very often you don't hear you know what also I like y intervention you could just make a portm out of that um I did bring some charts and here we have the Japanese 10-year bond versus its target range so in purple we have the bond this goes back to 2016 2017 and these blue dotted lines that is the Bank of Japan that's where they're trying to keep it contained as you'll notice here they're not really keeping it contained they keep trying to keep it in there but uh then they are forced to capitulate and as they are playing this as this is playing out the Yen has been weakening the Yen has been we talk to me about the Yen how's that playing to the story the Yen has been weakening to levels that we haven't seen since 1986 so this is the US dollar versus the Yen um and let me put a Max chart on so you'll see this goes back to the late 1990s um and here we are we are at the highest point that we've seen on this entire chart Torsten slock Apollo Chief uh Global Economist he says that the Yen would be at 140 it's at 160 now uh it would be at 140 if the if the bank of Japan were not pulling all these levers so there's a big there's a big dislocation in there and the worry is is that there's this dislocation that kind of hits the market all at once you spread things out generally it's okay but sometimes uh you get you hit some problems here if it all comes at once last blicker point you know we got to talk about crypto crypto never sleeps and we are facing another what two day 48 Hours here without prices in in but not in crypto so I've been tracking this crypto crash that we've had kind of a big deal because Bitcoin itself has broken through a trading range that is held for seven several months here I'm going to get our crypto heat map up and there we go so you'll see Bitcoin in the red for 3% uh it kind of broke down yesterday and we got this news about monox we also have Germany all in all something like bearish headlines y short 190,000 Bitcoins so you multiply this price times 190,000 you're going to get 10 billion something like that that is a potential maximum amount of selling that's going to hit the market doesn't mean it's all going to happen at once but I think it's instructive that we are breaking down through this range so Bitcoin kind of famous for false breakdowns if we're back above 60,000 by m I would say that's another one but probably that is not my base case so I think we're in some for a little bit more prolonged downturn here with respect to crypto overall all right levels to watch thank you Jared appreciate it

_1WulF82JMw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_1WulF82JMw

2024-07-05 00:00:00

Yahoo Finance

Fed likely to have short and shallow rate-cutting cycle, strategist says

all right let's get another perspective here because joining us to help us break down this 4day trading week which include a couple of fresh record highs is Kayla Cedar State Street Global markets macro multi-asset strategies Kayla it is good to see you it seemed like Kayla um what you're suggesting is when you looked at the the big jobs report today and other you know economic data you've been reviewing you seem to be saying Kayla you've seen economy that okay it's cooling it's moderating but it's still in your opinion looking fairly and relatively resilient and strong here yeah thank you so much for having me you know I think that's to that's definitely right we have this kind of moderation that's going on um this uh direction towards moderation but the actual level is still quite strong and so you know I think what that means is as we're assessing this data we have to put some of this moderation into context and so yes you have um a headline figure in the NFP print today uh that was still above preco Norms but then you do see some signs of weakness underneath however if we take a step back wage growth is still quite strong jolts data implies that you know there are more job available job openings rather than there are folks unemployed and so when you bring this back to monetary policy yes this means September is live but thus far it looks like the economy is still perhaps too strong to or expect a cut uh in the near term you think it's just too strong period and we might see a risk of re acceleration up which would mean maybe the FED is on pause a lot longer than people thought or gasp even has to raise rates that seemed to be a possibility a few months ago but admittedly it's been priced uh down quite a bit from then yeah you know I think it has been priced down because the data has started to move in the direction towards easing and Moder ation so that means that the bar for a hike is higher than the bar for a cut with that said though I think you point out a really important uh factor to consider is that the FED certainly does not want to cut and then have to hike again and so I think that's why when we look at the underlying data especially in the CPI prints we want to start to see services and housing make progress back towards 2% uh because otherwise there is that risk of reacceleration Kayla another big economic data point next week CPI what are you looking for there Kayla what's your what's your expectation yeah you know one thing that we have uh insight into at State Street is we have price stats which is a daily measure of goods inflation and so when we look at the progress made on Goods inflation thus far that's really what has led a lot of this disinflationary move lower and so I think that means two things one we need to start seeing see more progress on the services and housing side and we also can't see Goods re accelerate and so what we're seeing thus far is that Goods inflation is continuing to move lower we are seeing disinflation continue and so that's a good sign moving into next week but again we also really need to start seeing uh those housing Oar figures start to come down and we'll also be looking for uh a continuation lower in super core as well what are the big macro headlines that you might be a little bit concerned about things uh not necessarily front and center right now could be geopolitics could be election but things uh that might cause some uh perturbances in the market uh in the months to come you know I think the market does have this habit of getting ahead of itself and so that's what makes this transmission of or um I would say this movement in some of the data hard to Grapple with because we do see weakening but is is it weakness and so I would caution folks from getting too excited about some signs of moderation and interpreting it as weakness and expecting too many Cuts unless we're really going to start pricing in a recession which thus far looks unlikely um it's going to be hard for the FED to really deliver this really um this large magnitude of cuts and so it's much more likely I think that we're going to see a shorter and relatively shallow cutting cycle so Kayla added up for giving your view of the economy and the FED uh for investors listening right now and the stock market Kayla what do you prefer yeah I really prefer still large cap quality growth which really still means Tech as we approach earning season which is going to be kicking off next week it really does look like Tech is where majority of the earnings growth is going to be as we look forward to the rest of the year expectations are that earnings will continue to accelerate but revenues will decelerate a little bit and so when we think about okay what does that mean for sector allocation that's really an okay story for for Tech because what that means is they can still support profit margins without some of this Revenue growth given their borrowing costs given their cash flows things like that and so they're very well uh bolstered to navigate that kind of environment all right got to leave it there but appreciate your insights here on this quiet Friday afternoon thank you Kayla thanks so much for having me

npoPiUrZm5U

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=npoPiUrZm5U

2024-07-07 00:00:00

Yahoo Finance

Auto industry still on track for an electrified future: Analyst

[Music] automakers reporting modest sales growth GM reporting its best quarterly sales in more than three years Tesla seeing sales Fall less than expected for the second quarter however looking to the second half of the year the road ahead for automakers may be a Rocky one Cox Automotive executive analyst and senior director of Economic and Industry insights Aaron keing joins us now to discuss Erin is good to see you so um maybe eron start big picture you know we did just hear as we mentioned uh from G and Ford and Tesla um just the 30,000 foot view Aaron when you look at the US Auto industry how healthy how how strong does it look to you you know I think we actually have to put it in perspective and and so far I think we're seeing a pretty good year we all knew that the uncertainty with the election the climate the interest rates keeping at high levels that we were going to be seeing potentially a slow growth this year um certainly the cdk outage in June didn't necessarily help us the fact that the oems or the automakers have not come in with really high incentives um like they were in the pre- pandemic I think we're doing pretty well what are margins looking like we're talking about increased incentives here we know that the automakers like to uh provide a little juice for the customers from time to time how were margins fairing so admittedly with then Cox Automotive we don't get terribly deep into the financials of the automakers um but again we're seeing them starting to loosen some of the the financial space they have on the cars as they try to move more metal off the parking lot so we are going to we are anticipating that we'll see some more incentives coming forward um there's a lot of rate suspenion that's having to happen right now because of the high interest rates so we're hoping that they'll be able to give a little bit more of this back it may come a little bit from the dealers margin and a little bit of sharing from the O automakers uh margin as well Aaron let's talk about a trend we talk we discussed a lot here EV sales growth Aaron um not what it used to be I'm interested the reasons you see for that aand and what you think it would take to kind of jump start that well I think you know what we have to remember is that some of the decline or a lot of the decline is actually coming out of Tesla's share they were primarily the biggest um competitor in the market the only competitor in the market for a long time outside of Nissan and Chevy um but we see a lot more competitors coming in with some really compelling product as well as good incentives and of course the tax credit so I don't see that we say EV demand it's completely falling off a cliff or anything it's normalizing and so as we see Tesla start to drop share that's not alarming around the entire message for EVS because the rest of the brands are actually starting to really lift in their EV sales so while we may not be at 10% this year um we're going to hit awfully close to it more hybrids are being sold more pads are being sold this is all good for the transition to um fully electrified vehicles in the future so I'd say that we're still on a path to getting to an electrified future it's just going to take us a little bit longer and we're really excited about the fact that we finally have some additional players in the market providing some really good options for consumers let's talk about the the some of those players in the market right now um I was just looking at the Wi-Fi interactive I know you don't comment on stock prices but what I'm going to show illustrates uh the big versus the small these is this is a year-to-date um performance for a bunch of EV stocks and Tesla just became positive today actually but GM is up 30% Toyota is up 12% byd is up 9% and then these little a lot of the smaller players uh in EV just are not doing it rivan 37% Lucid Motors down 30% admittedly China's its own story but what do you think the difference is between some of the the outperformance of these big guys versus the little guys I think it's I think it's precisely that a story of the big guys versus the little guys I do think that we anticipate rivan starting to get a little bit more under its feet um especially with its new tie-up with Volkswagen um and I do think that the automotive Market will have to balance itself out I mean a lot of people forget that at the beginning of the last century I think we had over what a thousand automakers you know it whittles down so I think we may see more consolidation or more collaboration amongst some of the OEM um and meaning some of the really small players might get swallowed up perhaps a lot of them over in uh in China but even when you saw the Volkswagen and rivian announcement you see where they're starting to realize that collaboration in some areas is actually good for you know the rising tide helps all All Ships and of course we may see a few like we saw with Fisker filing for bankruptcy some of them will go away from the market and that's okay that's the speed of competition right Aaron uh get you this you know we talked about EVS I also want to know what's going on with trucks Aaron broadly I mean what are the what are the trends and themes you're seeing there so broadly I mean trucks still make up a majority of our sales um but we are seeing that the smaller sub or compact um SUVs compact trucks and of course sedans are starting to have a little bit of a a Renaissance here where there a couple you know their share is going up just a little bit but I don't see that we're going to transition to um going back where cidan are the primary winner in this market um so trucks are doing okay uh they are stabilized um but we are seeing that the lower cost Vehicles which tend to be the smaller vehicles are certainly pushing up in sales and again that comes back to the affordability challenge that we're seeing in the market that if they need a car they need four wheels they'll take what they can get and if that happens to be a little bit smaller than they anticipated or wanted then that's what they'll grab for the new or used car and we will leave it there eron keing thank you sure no problem

yqOL2uODzOE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yqOL2uODzOE

2024-07-06 00:00:00

Yahoo Finance

Fed is 'more focused' on core PCE than jobs data: Strategist

moving on the fixed income Market could get interesting this election season Following last week's presidential debate The Benchmark 10e yield Rose six points to 434 we're looking at how to navigate the big picture on bonds with the Yahoo finance Playbook and joining us now to discuss is Kevin Nicholson Riverfront Investment Group Global fixed income CIO Kevin it's good to see you so actually I'm interested to get your take first of all on just the big economic news today that jobs report Kevin what did you make of it what do you think the FED makes of it I didn't make a whole lot of it because we've got a lot of gotten a lot of mixed data over the last couple of weeks uh as far as the fed's concern I think that the FED will look at that information however the FED is more focused on uh core pce and I I think that that's where their focus is going to be uh it core PC dipped in May um and only Rose uh uh what was it uh 0.1 uh 0.1% month over month um however in June uh it's supposed to rise it's forecast to rise at 0. 21% month over month and then in July at 022 percent uh month over month so if you just hold that uh June level um for the rest of the year you're going to get core pce at 2.95% and I think that is more important um to the FED than the jobs report right now we got the tenure uh it was only it was at 4 and 1.5% a few days ago now it's closer to 4.25 % just a couple bips away and there you see a year to-day chart just wondering where do you think the 10e stops now so it's been traveling down for a few days do we get support at 4.25% what does this mean for the market well I think that if we're going to see the 10year drop below that we need to from a technical standpoint it needs to break through 420 and uh thus far it hasn't been able to do that um I think that in order for the tene to go lower you're going to have to see something break or we're going to uh have to uh have a more riskof um Market um right now I think that the 10e is pretty much range bound um between four and four and a half perc uh for the second half of the year I think that if if we get um the FED to um pull back and and and delay their rate Cuts we'll see the 10year go back into that 435 to 450 range um however if they do begin to cut I think that we're going to be closer to the bottom end of my range of 4% closer to 4% um by year end so Kevin let's see you're watching right now you're a viewer you're invested in treasuries what's your advice Kevin what's your guidance so we own treasuries in our portfolios but it's at the back end of the curve and and we did that through actually through strips um but for the uh General portion of our portfolio and the uh we would actually look at the three two 10 year part of the curve we like taking credit risk over interest rate risk so we want to buy those corporate those um companies um bonds that uh are that are investment grade that are going to give us an additional yield of about a 100 basis points on in the investment grade World um so we want to lock in yields that are above 5% um and then in the non-investment grade world when we think about high yield we want to stay at the front end of the curve but we want to be able to get you know pick up incremental you know 300 basis points or so um and we only recommend a high yield for those clients that have a longer time Horizon Beyond five years for the client that has a Time Horizon inside of five years we are focus on the investment grade credits

5hcsCdMi3jQ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hcsCdMi3jQ

2024-07-05 00:00:00

Yahoo Finance

Can the meme stock trade maintain its momentum in 2024?

[Music] another eventful week for the meme trade roaring Kitty revealing his 6.6% stake in chewy and cost skyrocketing more than 140% on Wednesday so what's next for mem stocks and what does it all mean for retail investors we're bringing in just the man to talk about this tasty live CEO Tom snoff for answers Tom it is always good to see you you know big big picture Tom in 2021 when I was talking about meme stocks I I don't know if I would have thought skip ahead you know to July 2024 I'd still be talking about roaring Kitty and Dave pornoy and meme stocks I mean I I guess I would have been surprised if you've told me that are you surprised Tom that this is still a trend a theme that we're talking about well obviously I I think I'm in the same camp as you I I would have been if you had told me three years later from 2021 we' still be talking about this in 2024 I think I would be super surprised but then again okay I'll throw another angle at you maybe just the term meme stuck and it's not just like the gmes and the chewes you know I mean was Nvidia a meme stock you know for an Institutional meme stock I'm not sure if that's just the new the new term that may stick you know for anything that's kind of you know out of control so a problem of taxonomy all right putting that aside for a second uh I was just we were just talking about uh with our uh head of news here that we got we're feeling 2021 Vibes and stick with me we got these Mega caps uh stocks uh heavy concentration favoring uh just a handful of stocks and then out of the blue we get this retail explosion in certain names we saw GameStop and Keith Gil filing a 13g now that's that's a game changer to and chewy you seeing any Sim any similarities here well of course I mean first of all there's two stories here the first story is the whole Keith Gil roaring Kitty thing is it's an extraordinary story for retail investors because somebody did something incredibly different than than than it's ever been done before and I mean not too many retail investors turn 50 million into some couple of hundred million God knows how much money he has but it's it's really never been done before so that in itself is an unbelievable story um but the other side to it I think is you you bring up a a a great point you know I mean what does this mean is this a repeat of 2021 because if you remember we normalized in 2022 and it was a pretty dark year for the markets and I think you are seeing you know you may be seeing some capitulation upside capitulation you may be seeing kind of some euphoria that I don't know if we can you know can we maintain these levels or will we normalize especially in volatility especially in all the indexes and everything else so yeah I'm going to answer your question and say it's a little like 2021 not as extreme but a little bit like it Tom I'm just curious for folks who are listening right now and they're hearing us discussing you know uh roaring Kitty and the mem stocks and the moves and and they want to play it they want in Tom what guidance would you give is there any kind of just general um guidance advice tips and tricks well you know at Tasty we um you know we're like the third largest derivatives Boutique so we we um specialize in in options when it comes to stocks like those you know most most of our um customers and most of our trades that are in the option Marketplace and most people that trade things like chewy and GameStop and things that have you know let's call these These are pure asymmetrical plays right you're just you know you want to risk one to make 10 or something like that and so a lot of people use the option Marketplace for that and I would just be careful in the sense that the markets in there even though these stocks are very liquid and even though they have a ton of trade the markets aren't great they're a little wide and you have to be careful about you know you have to be careful because some of the upside call skew is ridiculous and if you're not used to upside call skew just means that calls are priced more expensive than the puts and so it's where the velocity of risk is deemed to be so that's the only thing I would watch out for is just be careful about the upside call skew all right we always appreciate a good risk management discussion uh give you the floor here anything else you want to tell investors could be about retail stocks uh just about anything well you know as we wind down for kind of I I'm sure you guys are dealing with the same stuff we're dealing with today it's just a weird week you know when you have a half day on Wednesday and a day off on Thursday it's kind of it's it's a weird breakup but we haven't um I don't think we've experienced you know this kind it's been a long time since we haven't seen you know a down tick I think it's been three almost 350 days since we've had a 2% draw down in the snps um and I I think we've gotten to the point where you know we're a little frothy as we like to say the Ducks are quacking so just be careful all right the Ducks are quacking we're going to leave it on that note thank you for the visual and the audio as well Tom soff as always thank you have a great weekend guys

Sb6f8bu4DzU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sb6f8bu4DzU

2024-07-05 00:00:00

Yahoo Finance

Stocks hit all-time highs, spurring Oppenheimer to review its S&P 500 price target

it's stocks set for new all-time highs on as investors have embraced the prospect that the June jobs report will push the Federal Reserve closer to a ray cut for more on what this means and for what this means for your portfolio let's W welcome in John sulfus Oppenheimer Chief invest investment strategist John thank you for joining us here today we've been waxing poetic about Fridays and jobs and everything else just what's your what's your first blush take on the jobs report this morning I I came in fine as far as I'm concerned when we looked at it you know if if it's anything that it states very clearly to us is jobs remains resilient even though we have seen slowing off the higher numbers that we used to get the that's not uh that that has to be expected the FED is raised 11 times uh and uh has been on cause for eight times now since March 22nd uh through today uh when you look at it essentially the has done the job uh they have a little bit further to go uh 2% Target uh on inflation remains somewhat elusive but in the meantime they have yet to push the economy into a recession that resilience shows in business it shows even in the consumer and it certainly shows up in the job postings so the economy appears to be larger than the negative pitchbook at this time and we say we think that's good for equities and John what is your un Target for the S&P 500 here my year end target has been exceeded twice this week in terms of the closing price it's been exceeded several times in the last uh five or six days uh but those were in Market uh uh moves uh but closing prices uh twice now in succession and it looks like it's going to happen again today uh we'll be we'll be reviewing our Target over the weekend that's all I can say whether we will whatever we'll do with it you'll find out on Monday can I can I ask you your honest opinion here about these targets these price targets a lot of times they're for 12 months or end of the year um what do you what do you say to investors with how how serious should investors be taking these well I think the the most important thing uh that we'd have to think of here Jarett is that the uh the the importance of the target really is it's kind of the fun part of the game for strategists and the and the Press uh as well as investors who like to what it is in terms of what's the direction that's what really counts are you looking for gains this year or not we started this year well last year in December we put in a 5200 Target for the S&P 500 for this year it was one if not the highest Target on the street people thought we were nuts it was exceeded sometime in the first quarter we raised it at that time uh to 5500 and now we've got to think about what we're going to do from here uh and it's our our our targets are based on uh very much on fundamentals it has to be the trends that we see both in economic data as well as in Revenue growth uh and earnings growth uh uh primarily in the S&P 500 as it right now is the leading index and the way this economy uh is structured

0o8zQzOa7Hw

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2024-07-05 00:00:00

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Unemployment rate indicates 'slack' in labor market, economist says

the June jobs report showing another sign of the US job market continuing to cool the unemployment rate unexpectedly rising to the highest reading almost three years while June's job addition saw a slight decline for May PNC Financial Services Group Chief Economist Gus fosche joining us now to discuss Gus it's always good to see you so you look at this report Gus uh headline payroll growth of 26,000 did see Gus down revisions uh mention an unemployment rate ticking up to 4 4.1% so some some puts and takes here but Gus break it down for us how did you read this report I read this report as being very positive the job market continues to improve but the pace of job growth is slowing towards a more sustainable Pace over the longer run uh we saw slower wage growth which is reducing inflationary pressures from the labor market uh but at the same time wages are increasing more quickly than inflation so household incomes are going up and the economy should continue to expand so I think if you're at the fed this is what you want to see slower J job growth a little bit higher unemployment rates slower wage growth and that would support Cuts in the FED funds rate sometime later this year and do you think with a higher unemployment rate there's something called the S Rule and we don't need to get into the nitty-gritty but you think if the unemployment rate kind of holds here around 4.1 4.2% that actually gives the FED a lot of cover to lower interest rates as it has been telegraphing it wants to do uh that's right I mean it's an indication that there is a bit more slack in the labor market uh what they don't want to do is wait too long to cut because that increases a likelihood that we get a recession not necessarily this year but let's say in mid 2025 I think they do want to cut because they're concern that monetary policy is Weighing on the economy uh so this type of jobs report gives them the ability to do that they can say look inflation is slowing the labor market is cooling a bit therefore we should be cutting rates sometime later this year and Gus when would you be looking for in terms of later this year are you in the September Camp I'm more in the November Camp because I think they'd like to get past the election uh I think if they cut in September then that opens them up to political criticism so I think November looks more likely and I don't think it makes a big deal for the economy one way or the other uh that being said if we do see the job growth is slowing a little more than we're expecting then we might get that September cut but I think you know right now November but September is still in play you know uh time flies by here in a week we got the big Bank earnings just wondering uh you see anything in the data here uh that maybe we should be concerned about the consumer is the consumer still strong I think the consumer is still holding up uh as I said real incomes continue to rise uh when we look at things like Debt Service ratio those are still pretty low uh obviously travel has been incredibly strong this summer uh and so there's no indication to me that there are significant problems for the consumer I think there are some lowincome consumers who are a little bit stretched uh but we also have for high income consumers we have Rising stock prices rising household wealth that's supporting spending and we have seen the savings rate tick up a little bit which is what consumers are going to need to do over the longer run save a little bit more so I think that they're still overall in good shape uh perhaps with a little bit of of concern for for lower income consumers in particular uh Gus and next week of course CPI is on Deck I'm curious what are you looking for there Gus and how important is that is that print to the FED uh so 0.1% on the overall CPI we did see gasoline prices fall uh from May to June particularly given that seasonally we would expect them to increase uh we expect to see the core at 0.2% increase from from May to June again that's good news from the fed's perspective after some uh less progress in slowing in inflation in early 2024 we're starting to see inflation slow a bit more that being said it takes more than one or two months for the FED to be convinced that inflation is slowing but I think we will get better numbers on inflation over the next couple of months and then that supports a rate cut later this year sometime Gus always good to have you on the show thank you for joining us thank you

n0_adj-OEKc

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2024-07-05 00:00:00

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Nike, Lululemon, Deckers: Top retail brands in focus

let's talk a little bit about what is in our closets let's play a fun little game called in or out and we're going to talk about three retail names that I know the three of us all have plenty of exposure to Nike Lulu and Deckers let's start with Nike and you take it any direction you want Brad I'll start with you Nike oh boy are we in or out I'm still in okay and are we talking in my closet or we talking however you want to interpret it however you want to interpret it the stock you know the logo anything yeah the iconic swoosh are you done with it this year's Olympic uniforms yeah so I think for Nike there are a few things that are alarms for some consumers some investors out there even uh and we'll get to the dunks that you're seeing on the screen because that's that's a large portion of it you know we we've been speaking quarter after quarter especially with Adrian ye of Barclays about what needs to happen at Nike and I wrote up a story earlier this year that still holds true from Adrian and our conversation talking about they need more innovation thisan needs more Innovation you think about the number of brands that are doing really well at taking market share on the apparel side purely because they're able to tap into audience bases that listen to Nike but also listen to them over platforms like social media they see all their friends wearing a gym shark they see all the friends wearing Alo or Alo I don't even know how we pronounce it great so I was O for two yeah vori so all of these new players have entered into the space challenged the Behemoth that Nike Adas Lululemon even and I know we'll get to them that they are and ultimately put pressure on them to say okay now you have to out innovate these new smaller players that are either more ESG minded that are perhaps even more creative in how they're marketing and go after that same consumer and on a pricing perspective figure out a way to make sure that as consumers are looking at this discretionary purchase that they're either going to buy into a Jordan shoe that they bought back in '96 and and once again here in 2024 or if they're going to wait for something else that's actually worth the $200 does I'm very simple uh I'm Richard Nixon out I'm piecing out of Nike I'm out on Nike and my thesis is is very simple one I think Co John Dono has done a terrible job and I think it's his time to announce successor there has been some chatter that you will get the next SEO of Nike uh coming up within the next year as should happen I think he's disappointed investors for the past four quarters in terms of results and guidance the street does not like to see this I think John has held on this job for too long number two um China uh I think the inventory levels in China remain too high the sales results and operating Mars in China remain under pressure and these things uh for a business the size of Nike does not change overnight company's probably looking at two three more challenging quarters in China before they cars correct so until I see some form of who the successor is for the CEO role at Nike and better results at China I can't be on this name just a stat real quick toss up those Panda dunks once again here because I got one you're going to say in you're just going to stay in just because you're in I I want to talk about my own Footwear but Brad continue number one selling sneaker on Goat in Flight Club number one most Wanted shoe on Goat for the second straight year in a row last year in 2023 average profit margin when it's sold on those platforms 33% people were buying into something that came out back in what the 80s again and for higher profit margins higher markups here so that is the that's both a gift and a curse I want to know John Donald tell me why my new Nike Maxes are peeling I want to know I just got them and they're peeling and they're garbage so I you know did like everybody else 18 19 you know was like I I need sneakers right it's the cool thing to do and so I have or I had four pairs of ones that I thought were sweet and I wore a pair of the office like a month ago and I'm like standing there and I'm looking at my feet I'm like what am I doing I I am a father this is not cool like this is out get a pair of Sketchers and and I I just it just doesn't feel it doesn't feel like it right speaking speaking of it let's talk about Lululemon we mentioned viori before for so I know they are selling Footwear maybe more of an apparo play Brian sazy are you in or out on Lulu staying Richard Nixon I am out I am piecing out on Lululemon this is very very simple if you go into Lululemon's latest 10q uh keyword the word conversion uh in the most recent quarter there was something uh that happened in L that I have not seen in some time it's a major red flag conversion rates were down what does that mean you go to the store you leave with nothing because they're close stink I think this company's having problems with color fit they've lost key executive Talent so until I see better conver verion R from L lemon usually takes two to three quarters to course correct that I can't be in this name either Bradley I mean the competitive Advantage for a while while you saw that stock Rising back a couple months ago and now the retreat that we've seen is because consumers are recognizing that they can get the same fabric at different stores for lower prices and it's uncreative right now I mean it's just colors on clothes yeah it does feel when I walk into my local Lululemon of course I have a local uh that it's the same thing just sort of reskinned now I will I will say I'm still in I'm still in on Lulu because why the clothes do hold up a lot better than other brands that I've owned and for my needs which is basically feeling not like a working stiff like I'm seated right now uh it always meets my needs and I again I think the durability for my closet has played out over time and maybe this is the problem for the stock me a boring dad who's like I just kind of want the same thing it is still kind of the same thing so this is not great that's why the stock's down 40% not great for investors not great for the story but as a core customer I am still in I'm not really shopping around for Alternatives like an aloe or like a vori even though both those stores are now just down the mall aisle from I know we got to get to miles I was sitting around at the barbecue yesterday bunch of 50 plus year old dads they're all talking about their new Sketcher shoes you got to get they the slipons they have the the the the cushioning 40 about 4045 get you into these it could be time my father wears Sketchers so w be me they're really comfortable you know what else my father wears he wears hokas so let's talk about let's talk about Decker's Outdoors Decker's Outdoors really the story here is Hoka the changes that have happened in the technical running Footwear space of the last 10 years I would love to do a whole show on Brian are we in or out on hokas I know you had ons on the other day where are we at with the big guys uh the chunky boys at Hoka I am also out on Hoka like the look all all the grow R I love I I like the shoes I like the Ugg story like all those things I am concerned just from a Pure Stock perspective it has been a monster monster and the growth rates have start to slow even for Hoka this was a brand a year ago growing at about 100% year over a year now it's down about 30 40% when you're a growth stock and your growth is slowing usually not a great setup I'm in on Deckers for a different reason though for uggs Uggs for for some reason continue to be like the thing that do you have ugs I I I don't but I know too many people that do in this day and age and I just can't figure it out honestly even oh they're so soft oh the men's slippers bread they're so just spur it fur is it fur it's like what is that I don't know just suits your foot so nice it's just so nice I mean so yeah it could be alpaca for all I know like at the end of the day I just know I se a lot of people yeah so for for some reason they were popular back when I was in Middle School and everybody was just like okay we're going to make that cool again gen Z is really doing a number on us these days so I would say on balance here it feels like some of the bigger public names in the Athletic Apparel space we didn't talk about an which is sort of the the one we didn't in Adidas feels like we were mostly out I I'm conc concerned that I now see an on the feet of uh older folks and uncool people that was usually a a Telltale sign hey you know who just bought you know who just bought on this guys I really I didn't I can't see this is the worst part I had well I have there's one model they have and I've had a few pair I get like one pair a year and I had to refresh oh okay but it's Cloud monsters no it's the cloud Nova Cloud Nova wear down that quickly worried I'm seeing them everywhere now they are not the most durable shoes what I've they not the most durable Sho shoel is no good no good they don't crease at the right spot

oIiIVNybcD4

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2024-07-05 00:00:00

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Middle-income families feel 'high level of stress' about savings

middle income families continue to remain anxious about the state of the economy with two-thirds of families reporting their income falling behind the cost of living though on the upward swing from this time last year this is all according to the newest survey from prime America for more let's bring in Glenn Williams this CEO of prime America Glenn great to see you and thanks for hopping on the show with us all right so what are we seeing what's the feel the vibe across middle income family from the data that you're seeing in Prim Amica well Brad it's great to be with you and as you saw from the headline stat uh you know two-thirds still feel they're falling behind so I would say middle income families still feel like they're in Retreat financially uh we also detect a high level of stress financially from these families and of course we all know stress is not good for our physical health nor for our relationships but within the numbers we saw that three quarters are cutting back and of course that is actually good that's what people should be doing is rep prioritizing the challenge is that half of reducing savings or stopping savings entirely and 30% can uh report continued increased credit card usage so what's happening is they're shifting priorities that's good when they stop savings but or sto spending but reducing savings and using more credit is not a good Trend and so those difficult decisions where are you seeing perhaps the tradeoff more largely among households well it's it's an item by item process when we sit down with families it's always about prioritizing or rep prioritizing and so we sit down with families and explain to them that as much as they love those streaming services or the newest model cell phone uh that is preventing them from achieving their more important Financial priorities and the challenge is is that time is an ally when you're investing but it's an enemy when you're borrowing and so shifting from saving and investing to borrowing is is a double negative and so that's what we try to demonstrate that to families and then help them through the process of making those tough decisions on what's truly important to them and then taking action on those okay so with this in mind I was looking through some of the findings from your middle-income financial security monitor here and the majority grasp Financial Basics but not complexities here can you break that down a little bit further for us uh and and where there is understanding about perhaps some of the levers that can be pulled at a household level but the execution and and the complex ities are still perhaps daunting at this juncture sure well as as humans we tend to think we we have a general understanding of things but maybe we don't know the specific process needed uh to really make an impact so as we sit down with families clearly they know they need to be saving for the future particularly for retirement they need to make sure debt doesn't get out of control but we see them in action we sit down with them in first to analyze where they are today and that's where it exposes that what sometimes they think is happening is not exactly what's happening they're spending more than they think they're using credit more they're saving less or the amount that they're saving is not going to get them where they want to go in time and so that's where the decision starts and then we help them with a step-by-step process I mean the first thing is you've got to start some savings even if it's small you've got to start to reduce your debt uh even if that's a small process you got to protect your family with term life insurance so there's some basic steps and then as families get started they get a little momentum and then they find out it's easier to take the next step and the next step we find out it's not usually the information it's the personal application of the information to their specific circumstances that confuse families and then it's the motivation to act and continue to act that families need that's a great Point Glenn you know just lastly while we have you here I was looking through some of the drivers and the lack of financial planning and anxiety and limited time were two of the top that came up in this report from Primerica you know as you're thinking about the small decisions that add up to Big Solutions or perhaps big savings or smart spending habits what are the tips that households can emplore right now this weekend even as they're starting to think about getting into a better Financial standing well I think you hit the nail on the head Brad it's sometimes it's sitting down with families and just demonstrating that they can do something it's not hopeless it's not impossible and when we sit down with families they've got to take a look as we saw in the survey it's things like going out that are optional if you can eat in more often save a few dollars use those to to invest or pay down debt look at your streaming services that's an area that there's just a lot of of expense that sometimes families don't even realize they have or they're not using any longer uh take a look at at at your electronic devices the expenses there so many of these things a generation ago didn't even exist you know my generation didn't have to deal with these uh coming through that phase of life but now there are things that are optional that people have assumed are mandatory and they need to go back and say that's not as important as the greater priorities in my life that's Financial Security for my family all right I got to finish watching a few Netflix series and and Trigger warning was on my watch list as well the movie on Netflix before I cancel those streaming services here Glenn but then I'll take some of that advice you just gave thanks so much do that and then pull the plug Glenn Williams Prim America CEO great to see you

5uMY0KXAHq8

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2024-07-08 00:00:00

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Stock market today: S&P 500, Nasdaq eke out fresh records with Powell on deck

t Domination. I'm Julie Hyman. That's Josh Lipton, live from our New York City headquarters. We are giving you the ultimate investing playbook to help tune out the noise and make the right moves for your money. >> And here's your headline blitz getting you up to speed. One hour before the closing bell rings on Wall Street. >> It's one of the most difficult calls in my career, but I think the chances are better than 50 over 50 that he will not be on the ticket. That Kamala Harris at some point in the fall, will wind up on the ticket. >> The fed is likely to cut rates in September. We see an economy that is cooling. We wouldn't call it weak, but it is cooling and we're seeing those inflationary trends also cool somewhat. So we think it's going to be, you know, time for the fed to start moving. And we expect, you know, 1 to 2, fed cuts this year. >> That's a good sign from the aspect that they're starting to clear some of these problems, some of these, these legal overhangs. And that's going to help them focus on the most important thing to do with the company, which is to build more airplanes, generate more cash flow and generate profits. >> We've got one hour to go until the market close. So let's take a look at the major averages. Right now we have some sideways movement today, a little bit of treading water because there are more events to focus on later in the week, namely, the Federal Reserve chair, Jay Powell will be testifying before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. We've got the consumer price index coming up on Thursday, and then bank earnings begin on Friday. So investors kind of looking ahead and as they do, not seeing a lot of activity today we see the Dow off by about 38 points or so about a 10th of 1. The S&P 500 very slightly higher. It's been bouncing around a little bit today. Important note on both the S&P and the Nasdaq. If either one of them or both of them closes higher, that will mean a new record for both averages in the case of the S&P, it will be the 35th straight record that we have seen thus far this year. You see the Nasdaq up about 2/10 of 1. So it's a little bit more solidly in the green. And as we look at the Nasdaq it helps to look at the Nasdaq 100 as well. Because guess what. The concentration the market concentration debate discussion is still very much alive. And well as we look at the Mega-caps to see what they're doing today. It's really a mixed picture as well. Meta is off by 2, but Nvidia on the flip side is up by 2. We had a couple of price target increases on Nvidia that we are going to get into a little bit later. And then the other sort of muddling along here, if you look at the sector action here for the major averages or for the S&P 500, I should say communication services in the red dragged by meta there. But we've got energy also lower. And then on the plus side we've got tech. So a split between tech which includes software and hardware and communication services which includes things like meta real estate, also showing a little bit of strength today Josh. >> All right Julie investors looking ahead to several key events this week semiannual testimony from Fed Chair Powell followed by key inflation readings to provide key signals for the path of interest rates ahead. On the corporate side, big banks JP Morgan City and Wells Fargo to kick off the second quarter earnings season on Friday for more on the market expectations ahead. We have Bd8 Capital Partners CEO and Chief investment officer Barbara Doran joining us here now. Barbara, good to see you. Yeah, nice to see you both. So there was an interesting note from, Ed Yardeni this morning. Ed being economist and strategist. He was telling his clients he was kind of trying to make sense of this market. And doctor Ed said, you know, it feels like he said kind of a slow motion melt up. And he said investors seemed like they look at this weaker than expected economic data we get. And they seem to kind of think, you know what? That's okay. That just increases the odds that Jay Powell is going to cut. Is that kind of how you're seeing things? >> Yes it is. And I think that's why the market's been making new highs. I mean there's two things that have been going on. And at different points they're in different ascendancy. Like the beginning of the year. The fed already started last year to discount the prospect of fed rate cuts. Now when we came into this year, people thought six seven rate cuts. Well, that hasn't happened. It's been pushed out now lately. Been coming back in. But what happened in the meantime? Earnings last third quarter last year was when they troughed and they're just going up and up since then. And this quarter is expected to be no exception. It could be anywhere from eight and a half, 9% or more. And that's what the economy, what the investors are focusing on are earnings and so whether the fed cuts in September, which I think is increasingly likely given the economic data we've had, but I think that's really what's going on. It's really about earnings now. And the fact that inflation is steadily coming down. And I think investors really believe the next few inflation prints, which you mentioned CPI and PPI this week, you know, should be positive. But we'll see. >> Let's talk a little bit about earnings then. Right. Because the market's always an expectations game. And the past few quarters expectations for earnings have been pretty low. And then companies have beat them I mean companies usually beat expectations but they've now been creeping up. And in fact if you look at the S&P 500, which I just pointed out is at a record again, but profit expectations have been going up as well. So are stocks sort of in a more delicate position now so to speak because of that? >> Well, you know, it's a good question because I think any time you've had a big run up and you're making, as you said, today could be the 35th high in the S&P, not to mention the Nasdaq and Composite and the Nasdaq 100. You've got at some point there's going to be a pullback. We know that. And what we've seen so far year to date though it's been shallow. And I think that's what's going to happen here because the underlying fundamentals are positive. The economy is slowing down. People are glad to see that. It means the fed you know, is restrictive. And they will admit that. And that's working. But now we're getting to the point where we're more concerned that we could, you know, start to slow it down too much. And the fed is cognizant, you know, they keep saying things are in better balance. That means balance between the one mandate to keep jobs and full employment and the other to get inflation down. And we seem right now that this soft landing or no landing scenario is very much intact. So I think we're in good shape, but it's a question of, you know, where from here. That's always been the question. All the big tech names they've been, you know, the majority of the gains so far. And I think it's been difficult to see the market broadening out like say into a cyclicals or small cap. You know, a lot of talk about that, how that has lagged. But without knowing the timing of the rate cuts, you can't say this is now we're ready for the next economic cycle. So I think we're going to get pretty close to be pretty certain the fed is going to cut rates. Then we'll see a broader rotation into that. But for now, even though names like, you know, meta Apple, you know, all the great names are above their historical PE. There's good reason for that. >> But how about Barbara after run we've had when clients ask you how valuation looks for the market, do you say it looks reasonable? Do you say we're stretched lofty? What How you describing it? Yeah. >> You know, it's also a good question. And you know, one it's always in the context of interest rates, you know, as the interest rates come down, PRS will expand. And I think we've been seeing that, you know, not as much as we did last year when things like the tech names were really, really sunk. But I think you've also got this bifurcatio. You know, we've all talked about a lot in terms of, the S&P weighted S&P versus the equal weighted and large part of the S&P is actually, you know, maybe a 1718 PE right now. Not that expensive historically. So if the market starts to broaden out you'll see, you know perhaps other leadership coming up when the tech names which I would not sell. So these are great names with great long runways of growth ahead particularly with the AI, you may take a pause there and see other names, you know, come into the ascendancy and New capital being put to work in that. >> But and I was going to say new capital. Speaking of which, you kind of you called a list of names the down and dirty brown name brand names might have turnaround prospects. And these, these. I mean, speaking of down and dirty, some of these are pretty beaten down. Nike, which is at its lowest since 2020. Starbucks, McDonald's, Lululemon, Boeing is on your list also. I mean, does that mean those are names that you're looking to, that you are getting into or considering getting into? And what's your trigger? >> Two of the names I have to admit I own, you know, and have owned for a while Lululemon and Starbucks. And there's names like Lululemon, Starbucks, McDonald's, Nike. These are all great names that in the past they have a brand and a reputation and a great management approach. And they have all in the past missed at different times. Zulu. Not until recently, you know, but they've always managed whether it was an execution issue or a macro issue or competitive inroads. I mean, Nike's gone through this over the many years. They somehow managed to right the ship, and that's why I'm looking at them to see where's, you know, what's the risk reward here. You know, because a lot of these names are discounting the worst possible case. Lulu. I still don't know yet because that could be real competitive inroads, but it could also be they just really miss the product cycle. Unusually for them, in terms of not having enough color, etc, etc. in small sizes. So yeah, I'm looking at them because potentially if these managements are able to turn things around and they have announced whether it's McDonald's value, you know, menu, Nike really trying to get back on the innovation track, all that stuff. You know, if it's fully discounted then there's potentially decent upside 2,530% from here. So I'm not doing anything. I'm still looking at them. Boeing is an obvious one. You know, I mean, how long does that take? You know, it's just every month some sort of bad news. You know, whether something flies off the bolts aren't there. But it is. It is part of a, you know, an oligopoly. And so at some point and they've got seven, eight years of, of backlog. So that's one you have to keep an eye on as to when you know and when it, to get into a stock like that. >> Barbara, you know election years introduce uncertainty. I think this year we can agree more than most. I mean serious questions about who's even on the ticket right now. What are you telling your clients, Barbara, >> well, I do get that client that that question from clients and what I say is basically, you know, Trump is more, more pro-business than Biden, but Biden is also, you know, pro-business. And we know who if Biden remains on the ticket, we do know who Biden is. We know what to expect. I mean, there's not going to be no surprises. And in fact, you know, here we are almost, you know, how many highs in the market and what's happening with unemployment. We've got a pretty good economy, you know, under the Biden administration and looks like, you know, there's nothing that's going to derail that, you know, in terms of his plans and what he says. Trump, on the other hand, it's more for Trump. There's two questions. One is the macro what happens if he implements the things that he says are his priorities. And there's three things that stand out to me, one is the 10. He's saying across the board, 10% import, tax increase and China much more. Okay. What does that do that raises prices. And what who does it raise the prices. That hurts the most. That's the lower income consumer who we are already seeing through many company reports, reports, retail, etc. that that's who is hurting it the most because they're spending on necessities. And then you have the immigration issue. If he really, gets elected and deports millions of immigrants, those are the ones who have been providing you know, have been taking the jobs that have been open. And that also helps, you know, keep wage pressures down. And then he's also talking about not, about keeping the tax cuts in place. And that's for the wealthy. Well, we've already seen in that administration it really the, the deficits and loss of income for that were not made up in other ways. So to me what you're seeing is that you probably means higher rates for longer. You know, that's inflationary. And so you know what happens then? I don't think it has immediate impact on the market. It's more what we're going to see is sector rotation, which everybody is trying to game. That out. And we know one that, you know Trump will not be pro-regulation. You know, we've already, you know, heard reports of him talking with oil executives. You know, if you support me I will, you know, give you certain benefits. Clean energy will be hurt. No subsidies. You know, anything that supports them, healthcare is interesting because healthcare will kind of would be bifurcated. You know, those with Medicare Advantage, like United Healthcare or Humana or CVS will do well. Right, those who have more of an Obamacare or Medicaid orientation, like a Centene, they're not probably going to get much support. You know, from the government tech. Both parties seem not to like. So they'll, you know, in either case, they'll be after them. And of course, banks, you know, anything that requires regulation. But banks, there's not, I think big changes that would happen just less maybe attention to enforcing certain regulations. Right. >> That's interesting how you're thinking about all of this. Well, Barbara, thank you very much. You're going to stick around, though, and join us in a little bit for goodbye or goodbye. Just don't go anywhere. And we're just getting started here on market domination. Coming up, Boeing has agreed to plead guilty to a criminal fraud charge surrounding two fatal 737 Max crashes from 2018 and 2019. We'll check in on the stock later in the hour. Plus at 330, it is indeed the latest edition of our series Goodbye or Goodby. You know already who's gonna join us? It's going to be Barbara Duran. We'll break down two stocks to help you decide what to do with your portfolio. >> And at 430, it's asking for a trend. I'll be diving into the latest stories impacting your wallet, including the recent moves in crypto stick around. All that and more. When market domination returns. Hi. >> Let's check in on some trending tickers here on Yahoo Finance. First up, we've got Boeing, which is little changed right now, but if you look at the intraday chart it's really been bouncing around today. The company agreeing to plead guilty to criminal fraud charges in connection with two fatal crashes of its 737 Max jet. Prosecutors accused the aerospace giant of deceiving regulators to approve the plane and pilot trading requirements for it. It's still unclear if this, settlement is going to go through because the families of, who were involved in these various incidents are weighing in. >> Yeah. And don't seem happy. Right. Yeah. Criticizing it. You know, I looked at I mean it's another black eye for Boeing. It does mean they avoid a trial, which would have obviously been a distraction. And I mean, you never know what's going to happen in a trial. So you do put that behind you. But as you know listen Boeing faces a fine. There's a corporate monitor, not something a company ever enjoys. Reports suing the government and Boeing are still, as you know, it's kind of finalizing this. I read reports they expect to file the final plea agreement by July 19th, moving forward now, you do have some dates on the calendar. We've got Q2 results on July 31st. We have Farnborough, the air show that's coming up soon. And really the big question, which is interesting too, by the way, I mean the stock's up a half percent maybe on some clarity. That's what investors are reacting to. Who knows? I mean the big question is still is also who's leading this company. Who is actually going to be CEO, we hear about potential candidates. Maybe it's Pat Shanahan over spirit AeroSystems. He's certainly being talked about. But still, who is going to be that in that C-suite? When Calhoun steps aside, the clouds over the stock are not removed with this settlement, even if we see a little bit of boost for the stock today. >> By the way, as part of all of this settlement, $455 million is what Boeing is going to be required to spend on compliance and safety measures in the coming three years. So that's part of all of this as well. If it does end up sticking. Yep. >> All right. Our next trending ticker Exxon. That company revealing it expects refining profits to drop due to lower margins across the industry. Reducing earnings estimates for the second quarter. This will be the oil giant's first earnings report since closing on that $60 billion deal for pioneer Natural Resources. And so that was the headline here. We have some new numbers from Exxon, and I guess what the investor is trying to figure out is what that means for the bottom line. Exxon saying earnings from refining will decline between 1.1 and 1.5 billion in the second quarter, compared with the previous three months, and I did see some analysts I think it was RBC quoted as saying this means when they did the math, earnings per share overall maybe look light versus consensus. Yeah. >> And also we should mention that the company is dealing with hurricane Beryl and the effects of that right now, Houston a lot of that city is out of power. It's affecting Gulf operations as well. So that's just something on the side that it's dealing with as it's also come out with this update full results from the oil giant are going to be coming on August second. So we'll get more color around. Pioneer Some analysts said the contribution from the pioneer acquisition were not as good as had been expected, so we should get more fleshed out information when we get that full earnings report that's coming up. All right. Let's broaden it out and talk about what's going on in the macro level. Because it is a big week for investors. We'll be getting a fresh reading on inflation this Thursday that could help build the case that the fed should begin to cut interest rates in September. For more on the week ahead and what it means for the economy, we want to welcome in Veronica Clark, economist at Citi. Veronica, it's good to see you. And what I find really interesting about the city call on what's going to happen with interest rates is it's a good reminder. It's not just about when they start, it's about what happens after that and how frequently, they they keep cutting rates. And you guys think we're going to have a streak here once they start going? Talk us through that. >> Yeah. Yeah, exactly. We have the fed cutting rates for the first time in September, which is it's not so much out of consensus anymore. We're we're pricing about 20 basis points or so for, for September, but yeah, we're we're more out of consensus is what happens after that. We do think the fed is cutting every meeting after that. So that includes November, December and into the first half of, of next year, and that consecutive cut call is increasingly premised on this idea that the labor market is softening, you know, we had very strong 200 K plus payrolls on, on Friday, but that unemployment rate ticking up, I think will be increasingly concerning for, for fed officials. We're now at 4.1% on the unemployment rate. That's above the Fed's year end forecast, so I think that will really you know, what gets us to those consecutive cuts? >> And, Veronica, when you're talking to clients and they ask you, what are the risks to this call? What do you tell them, Veronica? >> Yeah, I mean, we are still, I think, in a, you know, we're kind of on this trade off of, are we going to have a soft landing? Are we going to weaken further? I think we have a much easier time now than maybe a couple months ago of convincing people that things are slowing down, a couple months ago, you know, the story was re-acceleration and growth picking up again. Maybe the fed would have to hike again, that looks much less likely. But I think for us it really just comes down to the, the normal macrodynamics. You know, most recessions, most downturns do start very gradually. They start very slowly. And then at some point you encounter this non-linearity. You get the bigger increase in layoffs. We have seen this rise in initial jobless claims lately. It kind of feels like we're on the brink of that now, maybe the biggest pushback is, yeah, the overall numbers still look pretty good. It's just the, you know, extrapolating that trend does not look so good. >> Veronica, what are the other warning signs that you're seeing in the data? >> Yeah, I mean, I think it really does, you know, mostly come down to the labor market. We've seen, you know, for a number of months now, you know, nine months or so, you know, hiring really pulling back hours worked that are coming down. It looked to us like all of those early steps that employers would be trying to, you know, cut labor costs. They're not laying anyone off yet. But that would really be the last step, but as that, you know, dynamic has happened and it's been getting harder and harder to find work if you do happen to get laid off. We have seen this pullback in spending. You know, we've had retail sales. You know, moving sideways to slightly lower for a number of months now. And that pullback in spending that's less business revenue. Maybe that's what gets you to that final step of layoffs. So it is really just this gradual deterioration that we see. >> Veronica, I'm curious to know our central bankers are on Capitol Hill this week. Jay Powell, with his semiannual testimony. I'm curious. Veronica, you'll be listening. What do you think Jay Powell has to say? >> Yeah, I think the risk tomorrow we'll hear from him first tomorrow and then on Wednesday. Are that he sounds relatively dovish, it's interesting that we're hearing from Powell first, you know, among fed officials after that unemployment rate number on Friday, but he did sound like a, you know, a central banker who's getting more worried on the labor market, you know, employment side of the Fed's mandate. We've heard that from some of the other fed doves. Also, I don't think he's going to, you know, you know, really flag, you know, alarm bells just yet, but I think he'll be increasingly worried with that unemployment rate rising. >> At the same time, it feels like inflation is going in the Fed's direction. Right are you are you pretty confident that we're going to see a benign reading in CPI on Thursday? >> Yeah. >> Yeah. I mean as confident as a forecaster can be maybe there's always things that can happen. You never know. But yeah we're expecting another pretty favorable reading for the fed a 0.2% month on month for core CPI. That's a very normal reading. Even in the details of that, I think we might see, you know, finally, some slowing and shelter inflation. That's been a very sticky, strong component of inflation that might look more normal on on when or on Thursday's data. So that would be, you know, the fed getting more confidence that inflation is easing. >> Veronica great to have you on the show today. Thanks so much for joining us. >> Thank you. >> And coming up it's the latest edition of our series goodbye. Goodbye. We're breaking down two stocks to help you make the best movies for your portfolio. Stay tuned. More market domination after this. >> It's a big, noisy universe of stocks out there. Welcome to goodbye or Goodbye. Our goal to help cut through that noise. To navigate the best moves for your portfolio. Today, we're hitting on the low and high notes of music companies. I'm here with Barbara Doran, Bd8 Capital Partners CEO and CIO. Thanks for being here. So let's talk about some music companies. One of my favorite topics actually is to talk about music, so I'm happy to do so. Universal music Group is the stock that you would be looking at at a potential buy the stock. So I'm pretty well over the past year trades in Europe. It's up about 33% or so over the past year. So let's talk about why you like it a streaming growing and pricing for streaming is getting better for the artists that that this company manages. >> Yeah, yeah it's been it's been a big sea change in the last 18 months or so, really driven by names like Spotify, a stock that's up 100. And it takes in just a little bit of history about the music business. You know, when I guess in about the last, the first 15 years of 2001 to 14, the sales dropped dramatically. And that was because digital media, you know, came into being and people did not want to buy the physical records. So it went from 23 billion to 14 billion. Then streaming started to catch on. And so it's now back up to 27 billion. So you've had a very big sea change. And the sea change is really is paying. It's become much more what they're calling artist centric that you are now paying. Every time I download a song, I am paying that artist and that is through the big music. You know, studios and that is the three big three are universal, Sony and, and Warner. And so it's a very interesting time because they're really seeing their revenues come up with a decent amount of their revenues from the streaming services. >> And it's also interesting because universal had an agreement with TikTok, lost the agreement with TikTok. But the last earnings report actually looked pretty decent, as you say, this is one of the big three, and it's actually the biggest of the big three, I believe. Yes, with a with its market share. >> Right. It is. They've got about almost 30% of share. Sony is number two with about 19. And you have Warner bringing up somewhere between 14 and 15. And in this business that makes that's a big difference because usually when they're talking market share they're talking about the catalog. Right. The catalog is the millions and millions of songs that they have. And that's it's an advantage to have that kind of scale. Because an interesting thing that's happening with streaming is all these sort of the iconic names of the past, you know, are becoming even more popular and you're seeing more downloads. In fact, there was an interesting stat, the UK market, you know, eight years ago, 53% of downloads were this iconic golden oldies type of thing. Now it's up to 77. So yeah, and it's the thinking is that it's probably not only the older generation figuring out how to stream, you know, but it's also younger generation who never heard these songs. And a lot of it's great music. So you're seeing the streaming is and you're seeing something like Spotify, who's being very aggressive in building their business, and they're seeing something like 19, 20% more active monthly users every month. That's big. They've got about almost three quarters of a billion listeners, about a quarter billion that are subscribers. And that money flows directly to all of them. Yeah. >> And as you say, also, it's not just how many artists they have, it's who they have. Right. And we actually have a graphic, I believe, of some of the Universal Music Group. I mean, Taylor Swift, one with a bullet there, right. Like that's the one that's obviously she's been dominant. But they also have legacy artists like sting, Bad Bunny, Sabrina Carpenter who's been hot this summer, Kendrick Lamar, Warner on the other hand, which we're going to talk about in a minute, it has it has some big artists. But in terms of the depth and breadth, well, that's it, you know, because what happens when you have all the big names, it, you know, it makes it much easier to recruit new names, right? >> When you're a Warner and you're sort of in third place, you've got to offer more. You usually can't give as good royalty deals, you know, to the space you don't have as much capital. And so when you've got the scale and you've got the global infrastructure, offices everywhere, it really makes a difference. And you're seeing that Universal's gaining share in just about every category. >> Well, as you know, we have to talk about what are the risks here. And I guess the potential risk here is that a subscription service like a Spotify will be able to continue that momentum. >> Exactly. Because the thinking right now, when analysts are really doing their projections, there's only about 15% penetration in smartphones worldwide in terms of streaming music. So the thought is that will grow. So you've got not only the growing subscriber base but the players like universal who have deep, you know, benches both in the iconic sort of music, but also these big stars because apparently 2, you know, you know, of the stars, is what's played. As for 95% of the time, right. So it's huge. That makes sense. >> So we already teased it. But let's talk about the company that you think is not as good a buy. And that is Warner Music Group. The shares are up over the past year about 9. So they've really lagged. So let's talk about it smaller. First of all, you talked about scale important. They don't have the same quantity. >> No they don't. And I'll tell you where that starts with not only in your recruiting and finding the top artists because you'll say oh my God, Taylor Swift, I want to have the, you know, the people who have the ability to promote me and get me out there. So that hurts. Plus, it's also technology. And I, you know, you've got to spend a lot. There's lots of things going on. They won't have that those kinds of resources and so and also when they negotiate their royalties with artists, it's usually they have to give more, you know, to say, well look, don't go with this player. We'll give you better pricing. >> And also there's the, you know, as you said before, talent sort of begets talent. And I guess the opposite can be yeah, that's really it. >> And I think that's why you see the, the disparity in the stock performance between universal and them. Because universal has much more, much higher growth. They have a great management team and they know how to do it. And this you know their it's been erratic. You know in their execution. And I think it's just it's really a function of their size and scale. And I think the third one we kind of already alluded to the pricing pressure that is that they have to you know yeah, it's pricing pressure, right. Not only right on that, but it's also, you know, in terms of streaming and all that sort of thing. So we will see, you know, what happens there now, what could go right for Warner. >> You know, the streaming business numbers could continue perhaps to improve. >> Yeah. And also what's interesting is that gaining share in terms of their deep, you know, music base, you know, from the past. And so I mean, you mentioned sting I mean names like that, those are it's like the riches that keep giving. It's also higher margin business because they've already it's already sunk costs. They've already paid for those artists way back when to get them where they are. So the more it goes to, the deeper in their catalog, the more higher margin business and the more visibility, because you can have years of visibility knowing what you have in your catalog, what we call the legacy artists. >> Sadly, yes. >> Yes. Okay So you are telling folks buy universal, avoid Warner Music. You don't hold either of these. No, I don't hold them. >> And I wouldn't say I mean I would. I want to make clear Warner is not a short, you know, because a rising tide, you know, they will be helped by all these, you know, industry, you know, forces that are happening. But again, as you mentioned, they have really underperformed. This stock has been up three times at Warner, was in the last year and year to date. You know Warner is down. And so and I think this has a deserves a premium valuation. It will maintain that. And the only reason I think people would buy Warner because they think okay it's down and dirty. It's discounted. But I think it will always be discounted to universal. All right. Barbara thanks a lot. >> Really appreciate it. >> And thank you so much for watching. Goodbye or Goodbye. We'll be bringing you new episodes at 3:30 p.m. eastern. >> All right. Let's check in on a few of the top analyst calls from today. Nvidia shares higher on the back of two price target boosts UBS raising its outlook from 120 to 150, citing demand momentum for the Blackwell chips, while Wolfe Research also raising its price target to 150, calling it one of the best ideas in semis. So UBS, for its part, talks about demand momentum for Blackwell rack scale systems says it's robust sentiment. Yes, they say it's recently faded on the stock. In the last few weeks, creating what they say is more a wall of worry that should be ultimately healthy. If our stock if our outlook materializes and then separately, as we noted, Wolf also raised their target to 150. Talk about ASPs and improving mix driven by by Blackwell. >> Now I'm sort of blown away like I'm I don't know why I'm continually surprised by estimates for Nvidia, but I'm still have a capacity to be surprised, apparently. So the consensus calendar 2025 earnings per share estimate for Nvidia is $3.69, according to Bloomberg estimates. UBS says no, it could be closer to $5 per share because of these channel checks that they're doing. Wolf puts the number around $4, but like 369 versus $5. That's a pretty big gap here. And the naysayers with Nvidia have talked about this slowing growth trajectory all around. There's no way they could keep up this pace of growth, UBS says. Well, given what we're seeing when we talk to people who are buying this stuff, there is still high demand. Now we'll see if that does end up being the case. But it's still, you know, it's just it's incredible. Has its capacity to say, wow, $5 versus 360 isn't it isn't our friend, our friend Corey Johnson. >> If you tour him didn't we ask him. And he said in his career never seen anything like it. Never seen anything like Nvidia. >> You know we've thrown around the word unprecedented a lot under after the past few years. But you know, you still yeah still applies in some cases. Let's get to another mover now Melius research suggesting the second half of the year could see some major gains for the likes of Intel, AMD and Apple in what analyst Ben Reitzes calls the Catch-Up trade for stocks that underperform in the first half. And he's looking for a model at last year where he said, we saw a similar phenomenon where these stocks didn't do well in the first half, and then they caught up in the second half of the year. And those are just some of the names that he's talking about. And he's talking about the product cycle for Apple being helpful. He's talking about semiconductors like AMD and Intel coming back as well. >> Yeah. And to tie back to the video, his note to clients, what he says is Nvidia's Blackwell actually isn't only the only product cycle to pay attention to in the second half, would you believe it or not? Yes. So to your point, Julie, it was I like this note. Sort of, time to dust off the AI laggards again was the title of the note, and he talks about Apple and the iPhone 16 and how street estimates are are low for the iPhone franchise. And then he also talked about some other things too that were interesting about the AI. Ready PCs, a big theme. Listen, we've talked to a lot of smart analysts about that. Some questions about how that will play out. But he talks about how that that benefits some names like Intel and AMD. And then also mentions IBM. By the way, Big Blue gets the shout out underperform underperformed in the first half. He notes. Now he says he sees revenue upside from Red hat. And they also talk about help from some recent acquisitions over there. As well. Yeah. >> Doesn't hurt that that Taiwan Semi is also rallying today. So we're seeing a big chip rally overall I think TSM above $1 trillion in market cap today in the US it's US valuation. >> Finally shares of ServiceNow. Now they are sliding today. Look at that down about 5% on the back of a downgrade from Guggenheim to sell from neutral citing second half concerns in the company's gen AI monetization. So all right. Guggenheim cuts to sell target 640. Not many sales on this name, by the way. Only actually just two on the street, doesn't mean he's wrong by the way, now, he says he the company seems to be expecting an uptick in AI business in the second half. Juli. But our fieldwork indicates this is not likely until 2025, if ever. >> That was the part I bolded from the note as well. >> The dramatic caveat. Yes. >> Yeah. So, I mean, and this is you know, it's interesting I wrote about this for the Yahoo Finance Morning brief recently, that there is all of this expectation around Gemini, but particularly with these software companies, they're not necessarily seeing it flow to the bottom line or even the top line as of yet. >> The other thing he said that stuck out to me. He said, we believe there's a material risk that now will have to lower. Top line subscription guidance for 2024. Now, he says, there's a real sales culture at ServiceNow that is powered its numbers and that that might sort of, if not mask any weakness. It might help them get a little bit more of a runway. But, you know, with that sell rating, he doesn't seem that. >> Yeah, he point for his clients. He said, listen, there's some risk to my call. You know, if there was significant increase in federal spending, he said that could result in upside compared to what I'm looking for, higher revenue contribution from Gemini Solutions. Then maybe, he says, I'm modeling or anticipating. But as you point out, Julie not his base case report. They report on July 24th. So maybe another update. Then we'll see what happens. All right. Moving on. Office vacancies hitting an all time high record in the second quarter at 20.1. It is the first time the sector has ever eclipsed 20. It's according to a new Moody's report. And with us now is the coauthor of that report. Tom Lasalvia, head of CRE economics at Moody's. Tom, it is good to see you. So looking at this Q2 preliminary trend report, Tom, you do say, listen, the office sector record vacancy rate, 20.1. Where does that rate go from here, Tom, in the next, let's say 612 months. And what factors what variables does that depend on? >> Yeah. Unfortunately for office property owners, that vacancy rate continues to go up. Some of our most recent research shows that with remote work really here to stay, we could see a 22 to 24% vacancy rate as at the peak of distress that's likely to hit sometime in 2025, maybe even early 2026. So there's still a couple of years of accelerated distress as this plays out, one of the key variables here, it's going to be, well, office employment of course. And we know that the labor market is beginning to soften. And another key variable here is remote work. And remote work. As I said before, it is here to stay at least at some level. Right. I think there's still a trial and error period that's going to last multiple years. But we know that square footage per employee is going to continue to drop. >> And Tom, when you talk about a peak vacancy rate in office of 22 to 23, I mean, just for so people know, you said in the second quarter it was about 20. So still an increase from there. What then is the long term vacancy rate, right. Like in other words, how long can it stay at 22 or 23. Is that the new normal? >> It's a great question. The way we're thinking about this as obsolescence, that there is a good 10 to 20% of office buildings out there that really just will not be able to compete in this new era, this era of remote work, this era of new offices, this era of new. Let's say, centers of power in terms of where office centric locations are. Right? I mean, you're getting migration into the Sunbelt. You're seeing even within metropolitan areas like New York, certain submarkets, doing much better than others. And so what you're left with is 10 to 20% of obsolete offices that are going to have to find some new life in this new era, right? They're going to have to go the way of a lot of these class B and class C malls over the past 30 years. >> And do you see that? I mean, that was one big trend, Tom, that was often talked about that you would see office buildings, you know, repurposed. As for example, residential buildings. I mean, is that when you do your research, Tom, is that actually happening? Because there seemed like it seemed like there would be such tremendous red tape and bureaucracy to make that happen or. No. Is that a is that a trend we're seeing that's actually playing out? >> Well, a combination of both of those things. It is a trend that we're seeing. Right. And we've seen it. I think, the financial district in New York since 911 is a perfect example of how you can take at least older office buildings with smaller floor plates and you can renovate those into valuable residential real estate. So there is a precedent for that. I think the problem comes in is when you have some of these 1970s, 1980s office buildings where there's not a lot of natural light hitting the center of those buildings. That's where you're going to run into real cost pressures that make it prohibitive to actually go ahead with one of these renovations. And so where does that leave us? That leaves us with a lot of subsidization, a lot of public, private partnerships in order to convert some of these obsolete office buildings from that era. >> Tom, finally, I wanted to ask you about a report in the Wall Street Journal today that talked about potential fraud that has elevated the valuations of some of these office properties that now that the market's pulling back, maybe those are being uncovered. And I'm just curious how much of an issue you think that is in the market. And then how that affects what we're going to see next. >> Well, what I can say about this is there's been a lot of extensions of modification, a lot of work with loans, a lot of non transaction activity going out there, whether it's from the loan perspective or from the sales perspective. And that has not allowed really any price discovery. So whether there's fraud or not or cooking of books or whatever it might be, a lot of that's going to have to come out over the next year or two because again, especially if that building is considered obsolete in this new world, right. Where do we go from there? There's going to have to be some liquidation of that asset. And the truth has to come out about really, what are the occupancy levels, the rent levels, what's the income? What are the management expenses? Right. What's going on with each and every of these properties. So price discovery is going to be a really big deal because of the distress we see coming over the next year. Two years. I think we do see a lot more of that price discovery, and we see a lot more of the specifics of some of these properties. >> Tom Lasalvia, quite a picture here of the office market. Thanks so much. Appreciate it. >> Thank you. >> Coming up, shares of Solaredge have had a rough first half of the year, but one analyst sees opportunity in the pullback. We'll speak to her after the break. >> Tesla shares. Fighting for gains. Trying to extend its win streak to nine straight sessions. Stock now at break even for the year. And as Frey is here with a look at what is driving the stock higher NES. >> Hey Josh. >> Yeah it's a nail biter because Tesla right now is up about 6/10 of a percent. It opened lower than went up about 2% earlier today. So let's see what happens. But look over the last eight sessions Tesla shares are up 37% over the last month. About 40. Remember this stock hit a 52 week low on April 22nd when it hit around $138 per share. Right now, it's at 253, so it has been a huge run over the last month of course, the production and delivery beat the stock popped last week because of that, but also you saw the stock going higher even before that, there's some positive Wall Street calls or analysis after those production and delivery beats, even though delivery was down year over year, it still beat what the analysts had been expecting. Dan Ives, over at Wedbush has a $300 price target on the stock. Adam Jonas and Morgan Stanley called out that this is more than a car company in his note, and he pointed out what some other analysts have also been pointing to, which was the show stealer, which was Jonas called it, and that is its energy segment, which is the fastest growing segment for Tesla Energy Storage. This includes products like Megapacks. These are these massive rechargeable batteries that are used for commercial and industrial use. And what's interesting about this segment, yes, it is a much smaller slice of the pie. When you look at the Tesla's overall business, but it is the fastest growing and its profit margin is also large. It's at a record just above 24. You compare that to Tesla's Automotive, which is around 18. So you can see why analysts are excited about this segment, even though it is a smaller piece of the pie. But just taking a look at where we're at with this stock, it's break even for the year. It's come off those April lows. It's a massive run for the stock over the last month. >> Innes thanks a lot. >> So we'll see the photo finish and where it turns out today where it ends up. Thank you. Well shares of Solaredge have had a rough first half of the year down roughly 70. Bank of America Securities now sees opportunity in the pullback, upgrading the stock to neutral, citing an appealing valuation as the stock is already priced in an unlikely worst case scenario. Joining us now, Dimple Gosai, clean energy analyst at Bank of America Securities. And Dimple so it's not that you're positive on the stock. You are at a neutral but you're less negative on the stock here. And given that 70% pullback what kind of scenario is the stock pricing in here. >> Good question Julie. And thanks for having me on. So for those that aren't familiar, solaredge is a power electronics company. They do DC inverters, they sell optimizers and battery, storage systems to. So you're right, the stock is down 70. Underperforming its closest peer enphase by close to 50. And the broader solar index by close to 50% as well. Year to date, I think, you know, the stock is oversold. Investors are largely concerned that we might see the likes of inventory write downs, you know, you are seeing, Solar Edge struggling with things like customer, accounts receivable extensions, monetizing the balance sheet, weaker underlying demand. And the question is really when can these underlying trends really reverse? And so that's the fear in the market. We are arguing that the stock here is largely overdone. >> Dimple. So you moved to the sidelines. What do you have to see to make a buy rating on this one. >> Yeah. Good question. So one is I'd really like to see the balance sheet. You know I'd like to see underlying demand. Firstly improve because that would mean that, you know, this this inventory congestion that we are seeing today, largely prevalent in Europe were to unwind, and similarly weaker in demand in the US, but to then turn which would, which would really change, what we see from the balance sheet. That's the first thing. Secondly, I'd like to see, you know, solaredge execute on some of these IRA tax credits, you know, expand us manufacturing, kind of see margin growth here, and with that, the, the increase in cash flows. So not yet bullish but looking for signs of incremental growth. And so that's really where we're looking for signs in the second half of this of this year. >> Dimple I wanted to sort of zoom out a little bit and ask you about the solar industry more broadly because it's been a lousy year for a lot of these companies. Solar edge is not alone. I was looking at the tan ETF, the Invesco Solar ETF, which is down more than 20% year to date. At a time when solar adoption has been increasing, as you said, there are tax credits in the U.S. at least, and in other places that are available. What has gone wrong and what would turn the cycle? >> Good question. And I think one is interest rates. You know, the cost of financing, one, the second thing is just weaker consumer demand, especially in the residential solar segment, and then three tax credits is something that, that we are seeing companies really take advantage of. Utility scale and resi, but we won't likely see the benefits of this until next year, when you can really, you know, include them or get the cash up front. So that is something that we yet to see the benefits of. So those are probably the three main things that are, that are hindering the sector. I would I would say and then there's also the, you know, regulatory policy. So for example, in California, which is, you know, north of 60% of the residential, market today, we're seeing policies like the net energy metering policy or NEM three, which is similar to the Netherlands market, which is really, decreasing or has hampered the growth or in demand growth amongst consumers. >> Dimple, thank you so much for joining us today. Great chat. >> Thank you for having me. >> And while we're wrapping up today's market domination, don't go anywhere. We've got you covered with all the action following the closing bell. Stay tuned for market domination overtime. >> That's the closing bell on Wall Street. >> And now it's market domination. Overtime, we are joined by Jared Blikre to get you up to speed on the action from today's session, I'll start with where the major averages ended up today or down. In the case of the Dow, it was the only one of the three majors to end in the red today, down about a 10th of 1, about 31 points. As we've been talking about investors waiting for a lot of big events later this week. And in the meantime, not a lot of action today, but it was enough to push the S&P 500 to a new record. It indeed closed in the green 35th record that we have seen, record close that we have seen for the S&P 500 this year. The Nasdaq also managing a record close despite a lot of volatility and a pretty tight range today, but a lot of up and down. But ending the day higher by about a quarter of 1% for the Nasdaq here Jared. What's caught your eye in today's session. As we have seen these little but incrementally record gains. >> Yes little. But incremental. I was noting the difference as you noted, between the Dow and the Nasdaq. Dow slightly negative today. But interestingly the Russell 2000 is more positive than any of the three majors. And that's kind of an outlier in and of itself. What do I make of it. Not too much. But just something to put down and see if it happens a few days in a row. Then we can have a conversation. Ten year note yield just about break even there on the day. Not a lot of movement in the bond market. What we're seeing is outperformance in tech by a pretty wide margin here. And it's interesting that communication services, another mega-cap sector, is actually the least positive. And we can see this when we drill down into the Nasdaq 100. Here you have Nvidia. It's been down recently a few days but it is up again I think it's the highest level in about 10 or 11 sessions. Apple. This might be a record high. We've seen record highs from Apple recently. But we're also seeing some. And yes it is, but we're also seeing some weakness Microsoft Dow Amazon Alphabet meta. Really the outlier down 2. That's obviously not a disaster. So when we take a look inside tech this is where it gets interesting. You can see all these semiconductor stocks. Some of them are even dark green AMD up 4% Intel up 6. Contrast that with what we're seeing in software, where we're seeing mostly red. Yahoo Finance's Josh Lipton and I are going to talk about that in 30 minutes. And here he is now Josh thank you Jared for more on the markets. >> We're joined now by Adam Turnquist LPL Financial Chief Technical Strategist Adam it's always good to have you on the show, maybe Adam, let's start off big picture. You look at the S&P 500. What are the charts telling you here, Adam. At least in this, you know, kind of near to intermediate term. >> Thanks, Josh. And appreciate being on. Look when you step back and look at the market it's hard to argue with record highs almost on a repeated basis here. But when we view it from a technical lens we're very overbought. We're getting very close to retesting the upper end of this rising price channel that's been in place, really going back to the lows of October 2022. And we're also getting divergences in market breadth. Last week on Friday, we only had 4% of S&P 500 stocks. Make new 52 week highs. That number steadily declined. You compare that to the rally to the March highs when it was advancing. You had broad participation really not the case. We're seeing a long list of divergences at the breadth level and even at the economic level. When you look at some of the ISM services data last week, manufacturing both dipping into contractionary territory. So what does it all mean on a shorter term basis? We think we're probably due for a little bit of a pullback here. >> What does it mean on a longer term basis though? I mean because we've seen some shorter term pullbacks. Breadth hasn't been good for a long time. So how can that continue sort of indefinitely longer term we think the strategy here is to buy the dip. >> We don't think you need to chase this rally right now. Just given how overbought the market is. Look at where leadership is, especially in the semiconductor space. Very overbought. Having a good day today. But even if you look at the Nasdaq Composite it's a 20% premium to its 200 day moving average. That's over a two standard deviation move. Historically when you look at that and compare it to weak breadth you typically get a pullback. And that's really the playbook. As we look ahead to the second half. >> And Adam you know we talk a lot about this narrow leadership. Do you see signs the charts of any kind of you know real rotation. >> Not yet. We've thought of this market as really kind of a field of dreams bull market. If you build it they will come meaning the mega-caps lead some of the smaller caps and other sectors follow, but we're really not seeing that take place right now. And I think that speaks to some of the weaker economic data that we're seeing. A lot of the economic surprise indexes now moving into negative territory. That wasn't the case last year when we had most of the economy surprise to the upside, given the recession call that started 2023, >> we've also been watching and this is a chart that we flagged earlier, that stocks are making these records at the same time that profit estimates are moving up. >> and so does that. What tends to happen? Well, you know, I guess profit expectations are also at record highs according to this chart from Bloomberg, but what tends to happen when you see that kind of movement? >> We think the bar has been raised for earnings. As we look ahead and kick earnings off on Friday, with some of the big banks looking at quarterly earnings growth of around 8 to 9% on estimates, think back. We've come out of an earnings recession over the last year. So earnings momentum is definitely there. But it's all about reality and expectations. And I think the expectations are now a little bit higher than they were given a couple of quarters ago. For the S&P 500 at least. >> Adam I know you can't talk specific names, but I am interested if you pop up in the hood of the SPX, are there sectors, technically speaking, that you think look more attractive? Adam >> Right now we like communication services. We think it provides a good barbell in terms of mega-cap exposure, but you also get some of the more defensive qualities and the legacy telecom names that looks attractive. Industrials is another theme that we like when you think about infrastructure spending also has a bit of an AI play with data center. Not only the build outs but storage. And then energy is a more defensive play. It's relatively cheap compared to the broader market, great free cash flows in that sector and a likely spot for a rotation if we see some money come out of tech. >> What? Turning to the sticking with those technicals though, Adam. What you know, looking at the sectors which which ones would you avoid avoid here at least near to intermediate term. >> Yeah. Right now we think healthcare is going to be a laggard. That was a recent downgrade from our House view. It's consistent underperformer even though it does have some defensive qualities. Right now we're just not seeing it on the technicals. Continues to put new lows in versus the S&P 500. So that would be an area we avoid. >> Adam thanks so much. Good to see you. >> Thanks for having me. >> Let's talk about another stock that we are watching today was AMC finishing Monday's trading session firmly in the green, up by about 8% following another strong weekend at the box office. Solid sales of new merch also helping. That's according to CEO Adam Aron and Yahoo Finance's Alexandra Canal joins us now with the details. Despicable me four. >> Yeah, are your kids fans of Despicable Me Julie. >> They're fine with it. They're aging up a little bit. What about what about you Josh no no no no not yet not anti I just think it's over her head still. >> Well maybe she'll be a fan of Despicable five, 6 or 7 because there probably will be those coming considering how well this film is already doing. So far so good. It debuted over the long 4th of July holiday. It's grossed about 230 million worldwide, which did include 122 million over the domestic holiday weekend. As well. But that's not all, according to that tweet from CEO Adam Aron, the film lured in 4 million guests and was the most attended Wednesday through Sunday of 2024. The merch also was really important with sales of that merch. The second biggest ever for AMC, and that's behind the Taylor Swift Eras Tour movie. Remember that movie that debuted last year? Apparently a lot of people want to get those Despicable Me minions. >> That's what they're get buying. >> I was going to ask what the merch was. >> Is the minions. I guess they think they're really cute. They want to buy that. And, you know, considering the Taylor Swift movie, they probably sold a lot of t shirts, things like that that fans were doing. So this is a success. Also, food and beverage was really strong as well. And that's something that you sometimes forget about. When we talk about a lot of these theater chains, that's not just about the ticket sales. It's also everything else that comes along with it. Of course, we talk about AMC. It's one of those stocks that normally has some volatile swings. It's one of the OG meme darlings. Not always tied to fundamentals, but box office performance is fundamental to this company. And when you think about the box office overall, especially as we kicked off the summer season, it was a bit of a rocky start, but we seem to be finding our footing with the box office, not just Despicable Me, but also inside Out two performing really well. So a lot of those animate, family friendly movies seem to be outperforming this summer. We'll see how that carries through to the rest of the year. >> You know, it's funny, I'm looking at Cinemark. Those shares were up just a half of 1% today. Yeah. Maybe you know what the difference is I mean CEO doesn't tweet. >> Yes I was I was just about to say that I mean, you have the CEO basically touting how successful this was. You have to think, oh, that must be a really great weekend for a company like AMC. But and normally when we have strong box office results overall, we'll see a trickle throughout all of the big box office chains. AMC is the largest, especially in the United States. But but again, it's we're not totally out of the woods yet. When you think about the box office at large, you probably will never be back to where we were pre-pandemic. So it's just a new business. And because of that, you kind of have to have a new business model to. And I think the food and beverage, the merch, that's a big thing as well. >> And tweeting to people who like meme stocks. Exactly I mean that legitimately. That's part of the business model at this point for Kitty Army approved. >> That doesn't hurt. All right. >> Thanks, Ali. Appreciate it. Coming up, the U.S. has a big time debt problem, but who is footing the bill? More market domination, overtime coming up. >> Ever wonder why a stock suddenly drops double digits? >> Or Bitcoin unexpectedly hits record highs? >> We're unpacking the catalyst driving daily market action and explaining the chain reaction. Why are oil prices trending lower despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, or why a company's stock is up even though it missed on earnings? >> Insight from top strategists, economists and business leaders will help you make the smartest choices for your portfolio. >> This is catalyst. >> Tune in daily at 10 a.m. Eastern on Yahoo Finance. >> Americans have a $35 trillion question on their hands. Who is going to pay for our nation's ballooning national debt? Joining us now is Yahoo Finance's Rick Newman. You know Rick I always assumed it was it was me frankly. And my kid. But who else. >> Well it is going to be you and your kid and me and all of us really. Neither of the candidates this year Joe Biden, if he remains a candidate on the Democratic side and Donald Trump on the Republican side, is really leveling with voters about this, no politician really does. And the reason is pretty obvious. There's nothing for anybody to like in how we solve the problem. And there's a lot for everybody to hate. Now there's a new analysis out by a budget expert at the Manhattan Institute named Bruce Riedel. He does some good work on this, on this issue, and he has come up with a way to address the problem of the national debt. And that doesn't mean paying the whole thing down. That's kind of impossible, but it means just stabilizing the debt at about 100% of GDP, which is around where it is now, in other words, preventing it from growing much more in the future. And here are some of the ways he says that things we're going to have to do in order to do that, they're going to have to be benefit cuts in Social Security and Medicare for wealthier participants in those programs. He would make no changes for people who are in the 40, the lowest 40% of households in terms of earnings. There But some serious changes for wealthier seniors. And let's keep in mind a lot, you know, a lot of a lot of seniors don't have a mortgage anymore. They own their home outright or they have a very small mortgage payment. They don't have childcare burdens. And there are a lot of people who have, you know, millions of dollars in savings and yet they generally qualify for all the Medicare and Social Security benefits that are on schedule, that that's just going to have to change. I think that's simple math. Brian Randall does also include, some increases in individual income taxes for the wealthiest Americans. There are some modest changes in business taxes that would take away some tax breaks and some other changes, there's nothing draconian in this plan, such as for example, a value added tax or what's basically like a federal income tax, which would raise a lot of revenue all at once. And I think that's the point of this plan, which is that if you just do a certain number of things and do them fairly soon, including things that a lot of people are not going to like, you might actually be able to address this problem without having to overhaul the entire tax system or have massive tax cuts or tax hikes. I mean, or something that would cause a recession. So this problem is solvable. There are many other analyzes that show the same thing. It's solvable. We just need politicians who are willing to tackle it. >> What will be the catalyst that will tip them in the direction of doing that? I mean, what what would constitute a crisis that would force action? >> Well, I think it is going to take a crisis. I mean, there have been warnings about this for the last 20 years, maybe 30 years, and Congress has done nothing except make the, you know, borrow even more money and make the debt even higher. So the crisis, if it happens, if it if it gets to that point, in other words, if Congress and the next president or the one after that, just don't do anything, what the debt crisis is going to look like this, the U.S. Treasury is going to be issuing so much debt that there aren't going to be enough investors out in the world willing to buy it, we've seen a few wobbles in the market for Treasury securities within the last 12 months. Nothing like what I just described. But the Treasury has begun to alter the way it sells securities, changing the duration of the note of the notes and bills that it's selling for example, and do some things to make sure those auctions go smoothly. If the if the Treasury gets to the point that there just aren't enough people to buy all of that debt, and that, you know, the market for debt is not bottomless in the world, we might we might get getting close to the limit. Then the only thing that can happen then is, interest rates go up and they might go up by a lot. And if you try to do stuff like federal Reserve money printing or other types of money printing, then you get inflation. So if you really screw this up, you could get soaring interest rates and runaway inflation. And that would certainly make everybody disgusted, more disgusted than ever with all the politicians, and that might be what it take. I mean, if you were running a business, you probably wouldn't want to do that. But that is the way we run the country. >> And, Rick, just, switching gears here a bit, you know, President Biden seems to be kind of doubling down here. Rick, pushing back on these calls we've been seeing, to get out to drop out of this race. What are you thinking, Rick? I just wanted to get an update on where you are right now on this. >> I mean, the battle is clearly on within the Democratic Party, and, you know, I think it's fair to say that the odds of Biden dropping out, I don't think there's any reason to think he would resign as president. But there is a obviously a chance that he would withdraw as the 2024 presidential candidate. I mean, those odds have clearly been going up. But this all of this, tension might actually be pushing us to a to a new and a better place that we needed to get to anyway, which is that Biden is now under intense pressure to get out in public more and prove he has to prove that he is not the feeble old guy that we saw in the debate on June 27th. So he supposedly is going to do another press conference this week. I think that demands for this type of thing will just intensify. He has done very, very few press conferences or live interviews where he's really been on the spot and he's had to be able to show that he can muster thoughts quickly and, Perry, any kind of accusations leveled against him and that he's, you know, sharp enough to fight this kind of fight. He needs to fight against Trump. Trump, as we learned from the June 27th debate, one thing Trump can do is he can still attack. He's still very agile on the attack. So Biden needs to be agile on the defense and on the counterattack. And, you know, I think this would be a good development if we just see Biden coming out much more than he has before. Not reading off the teleprompter as much, talking to ordinary people, ad hominem exchanges with people. And let's let's really test this guy and see if he's up to it. >> We shall see. Rick. >> Thank you. >> Hi, guys. >> Let's go back to Marcus here and talk about emerging markets in particular because they're catching the eye of Investors Global for one noting a significant pickup in interest in emerging markets as it steps out from the shadow of developed markets. >> Malcolm Dawson global senior portfolio Manager joining us now to discuss. So, Malcolm, start with what you're hearing from clients on emerging markets here and why you think there's been a pickup in interest? >> Sergio, thanks for having me, well I think a few reasons. First of all, investors have been dramatically underweight emerging markets for the past decade. And it's really worked. We've seen a lot of success based off of US exceptionalism. But now emerging markets are getting to the point where valuations are just too compelling to ignore, we're now the also seen a little bit of momentum being the second or third best performing asset class in the world year to date. And in addition to that, people are looking for different opportunities, whether it be alpha generation, portfolio diversification or just plain old US dollar hedge. Given the concentration of performance that we've seen in the US thus far this year. >> So Malcolm, let's dig into some of these opportunities. You kind of divide the Malcolm into into different buckets here. So in your structural opportunity bucket for example, you like India. Make the case there Malcolm. Why India. And also by the way do you think it's do you think it's sort of fair the way that people compare India to China or. No. Do you think they're just too different economically and demographicall. >> Yeah. No problem. Thanks. Josh, you can compare it, but end of the day, it's an easy comparison because I think it's a better opportunity. Unlike most opportunities in emerging markets right now, this is something that you buy for your grandchildren. I mean, India is growing 6 to 7% GDP for the next five years with EPs at 15 to 20. And importantly, Indian companies have the opportunity to reinvest this growth in these earnings into, compounding opportunities. Really profitable return profiles between 16 and 18. And then kind of bringing it back to that comparison versus China. India now has a larger population than China, a younger population than China. It's benefiting from this. You know, multinationals are looking for global supply chain, diverse diversification outside of China and in addition to that, this is all being run by a democratically elected government, which I think brings a lot of assurance in terms of governance to investors. >> I to just zero in on China for a moment does China does the China risk change under a Trump versus Biden presidency? >> I don't think so at this point. I mean, it's really difficult big picture to make predictions on China right now. I think it has been for the past four years. But in terms of what's happening from a US domestic perspective, it seems like both candidates are are kind of competing on who can be more hawkish and who can be tougher on China. So from that perspective, I think a lot of investors are looking for either single country opportunities, just investing in India or just investing in a country like Brazil or emerging markets. Ex-china strategies. And then in terms of China, where they're finding opportunity, are areas that are less reliant on the rest of the world, less reliant on the West and where they find an alignment of interest with the Chinese Communist Party. And that's mainly Chinese consumption. >> And just Malcolm just drilling down on Brazil for a bit. There because I know that's another opportunity to see how come Malcolm and I'm also interested how that you know, how has that economy sort of developed and evolved, Malcolm, over say, you know, the next the last 5 or 10 years? >> Sure, it's a great question. It's been moving with politics and it's been a political pendulum, we've seen some great things in terms of reforms, tax reform, fiscal reform, state owned enterprise reform, reforms to the central bank, and a lot of positive steps. And from a big picture perspective, but at the end of the day, Brazil is still a very cyclical story. And at this point, I mean, it's been a roller coaster. Brazil is up over 20% in the fourth quarter. We're down almost 20% in the first half of this year. So it's created another window of opportunity for people to step in. But right now, I think this could be the best trade over the next 6 to 12 months. I mean, this is based off of very discounted valuations, a very advanced monetary policy cycle. The central bank's already cut interest rates 325 basis points. And really significant exposure to a robust commodity base. But let me just take a quick pause there. You guys had Rick on a little earlier before this segment, and he was talking about the risks of ballooning U.S. national debt. And big picture, if you have any concern about national debt in the United States or the direction of the US dollar, which has been amazingly strong, the past decade plus, Brazil is a fantastic hedge against that. And historically speaking, for every 1% weaker US dollar move, Brazilian equities have popped 5. So I think from that perspective, it's really interesting as well. >> Well, and I also wanted to ask you, between about the traditional relationship between emerging markets and US interest rates, right. At a time when it looks like rates are going to go lower, maybe before the end of the year. Right, is that something that tends to be a catalyst as well for emerging markets? >> It does. I think it's a really good point, because at the beginning of this year, we were all so enthusiastic and excited about interest rate cuts in the United States and the spillover into international and emerging markets. We were thinking first cuts in March. We're going to get seven cuts this year. Fantastic. And since then, all we've heard is kind of more hawkish rhetoric kicking the can down the road higher for longer. But despite all of that, I mean M should be having a pretty bad year. But it's the best third. It's the third best performing asset class year to date. And gold prices are up. Copper prices are up. Oil prices are up and assets are up across the board. And that tells me that this rally is based off of more structural factors. Supply and demand, CapEx cycles, expansionary PMI across the board. And if, if when we do get interest rate cuts, that's just going to add fuel to the fire. So I think that we could be at the very beginning of a really interesting cyclical upswing. >> Malcolm, super interesting conversation. Thanks so much for joining the show. Really appreciate it. >> Thank you Josh. Thanks, Juli. >> Time now for what to watch. Tuesday, July 9th. Starting off on the fed. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is on Capitol Hill starting two days of congressional testimony tomorrow. Powell is going to be speaking in front of the Senate Banking Committee in the morning. This committee is coming after committee member Elizabeth Warren sent a letter to Powell last week criticizing him for having private meetings with top Bank executives and accusing Powell of giving them too much influence over fed policy. Central bank responding, saying it received the letter and plans to respond. >> And we'll be getting some commentary from Fed Vice Chair for supervision Michael Barr and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman throughout the day as well. Bowman reiterating last week that now is not the right time to cut and saying there needs to be clearer inflation data and taking a look at the economy, the latest small Business Optimism index for June is coming out in the morning. >> Economists forecasting that number to tick down slightly after two straight months of increases in April and May. >> And that'll do it for today's market domination overtime. Be sure to come back tomorrow at 3 p.m. eastern for all of your coverage leading up to and after the closing bell. >> But don't go anywhere on the other side of the break. It's asking for a trend. I've got you covered for the next half hour with the latest and greatest market moving stories, so you can get ahead of the themes affecting your money. Stay tune. Hi. Hello and welcome to Ask Me for a trend. I'm Josh Lipton. For the next half hour, we're going to be breaking down the trends of today that will move stocks tomorrow. There is a lot to keep track of. So we're focusing on what you need to know to get ahead of the curve. Here are some of the trends we're going to be diving into. Biden doubling down. The president pushing back on calls to leave the 2024 race today as lawmakers returned to Capitol Hill, a candidate change could spike market uncertainty, of course, but in the near term, investors have a slew of economic data and earnings results at the forefront of their minds. Plus Bitcoin fighting to stay above $55,000 in a volatile day of trading. Significant selling pressure continues to mount against the cryptocurrency as the German government offloads its holdings and creditors await the latest moves from the Mount Gox bankruptcy estate and a cooling labor market has meant workers are less likely to take risks by voluntarily leaving for new roles, but that does not mean the employees who are staying put are feeling fulfilled. We're taking a closer look at the trends at play in the workplace. Bitcoin continues to sink today, but crypto digital asset products are seeing inflows for the first time in weeks. For more on the cryptocurrency landscape, we're now bringing in David Bailey. He is CEO of BTC Inc and organizer at the Bitcoin conference. David, it is good to see you. So you think about this year David. You know Bitcoin. Of course you had that strong first quarter. Everybody very excited about those new spot Bitcoin ETFs now lately David you know not as much. You know first and foremost is it is it Mount Gox. Is that the primary issue here David. That's been causing some selling pressure. >> Well first off Josh thank you for having me on the show. And I have to say investors are still very excited about the Bitcoin ETF. Thank God we have the Bitcoin ETFs because it's been a brutal week of selling from the German government and from and Mount Gox bankruptcy claims finally paying out after ten years. And so those ETFs are actually absorbing a lot of the liquidity blow. That's happening right now. So we're about two thirds of the way through the German government just dumping their bitcoin, and we're eager to see it concluded. But I think that will wrap up probably next week. >> What would you say. You know, David, you look ahead to potential kind of near to intermediate term catalysts. You know, what would you be looking for? Is it, you know, a dovish fed a rate cut or two. Would that help? >> You know, I think there's probably two major catalysts that are driving the Bitcoin action right now. First off, we just had a bitcoin halving that occurred in April, historically every Bitcoin halving has caused a supply shock with Bitcoin and so the these are kind of the precursors to what makes the price of bitcoin dramatically rise over, you know, the next two years. And so a lot of people in our industry are very eagerly watching that that play out. It takes time for the supply shock to really bake into the market dynamics, and then the second kind of new catalyst, I'd say, is the political environment for Bitcoin, just today, details were released about the RNC's official platform, as it relates to Bitcoin and crypto. And for the first time ever, Bitcoin is one of the key components of a major political party's, platform. So I think that there's a lot of positive developments to come on the on the political and geopolitical side that are really kind of brand new catalysts for our industry. >> And just let's stick with politics, David, because my understanding is you actually met, former president, Trump. I'm just curious how that came about. David what did you guys talk about? >> Yeah, we talked to bitcoin mining. We talked, how Bitcoin is aligned with the president's agenda for, energy independence for energy abundance, for, America first, to really dominate what's a, strategic asset of the United States. So, the president is, is very aligned with, the Bitcoin industry and sees the opportunity that Bitcoin offers the United States and also the risk you know, a lack of action, would bring about as well. So, it was a very fruitful conversation, it's also where, you know, the president and his his classic style coined the term, we want Bitcoin made in America. So, it was a very successful it's interesting, David, because you have, as you're pointing out, rightfully I mean, you're seeing this I mean, crypto has become an issue in this election. >> And it's interesting to see Trump, positioning himself as an ally of the crypto community. Do you think that works, David? Do you think he'll win over the crypto community? >> Yeah, absolutely. It's already happening. You know, there are 70 million people that own bitcoin or crypto, in the United States. And there's an old political adage that people vote their pocketbook. Now, digital assets. Bitcoin is people's pocketbook. And so when they're making an analysis of who they're going to vote for, there's a lot of single issue voters that their number one priority is what's going to be good for the value of my portfolio. And so when you look at the two candidates right now, Trump has done a really amazing job at, at, making himself stand out as really the only candidate to pick. So, you know, we've we are trying to raise $100 million for the president's reelection effort, and we're trying to turn out 5 million votes, swing votes, in this upcoming election. And so I think, you know, Bitcoin is really having its political moment. >> David, I'm also curious. I want to get you out of this. When you talk to your friends and family, and maybe they don't own Bitcoin and they're thinking about it, what do you tell them? What's the reason you say buy bitcoin. Do you say David store of value. Do you say medium of exchange? What's the story you tell them? >> You know, it's a little bit of all of it I think. You know you you kind of cater the message of Bitcoin to, who the buyer is. You know, there's different things that intrigue people about the technology. You know, personally, I think what's what's most exciting is like we, we live in a, in a world that's very fractured our monetary system is very fractured. Globally, Bitcoin represents a fresh start, the ability to rebuild, and re-architect our monetary system for the world on a clean infrastructure. And so when I, when I look at Bitcoin I make the case the of bitcoin as, as kind of the primary asset of a of a future monetary system. And you know at fundamentally it's the number go up story. It's like what is one Bitcoin theoretically worth. If Bitcoin fulfills its potential as as you know the new monetary system David, it was great to have you on the show. >> Thanks for making time for us. >> Yeah. >> Josh, thank you for having me on Yahoo Finance's Jared Blikre joins us now with more on the trading day takeaways Jared. >> Well since the Mag seven is the entire market I'm noticing some rotation in the Mag seven and that is underway. >> And let me explain I'm going to show you first our Megacap heat map here. Not this I'll pull that up. And what we can see is a rotating cast of characters. Not all green, not all red. In fact, Apple today was the only stock only member of this group, at least of the ones on the left that closed at a record high. You can see Nvidia here coming back into the fore, but Nvidia hasn't made a record high in probably about two weeks. Now let me just show the year to date chart there. And you can see it's been kind of going sideways here. And I'd bring up the fact that last year Nvidia was going sideways for most of the year, about half of it. So this is something that happens. But meanwhile when Nvidia was kind of taking a back seat, guess who made record highs last week? It was alphabet. Amazon Microsoft I believe meta was in there too. So you're not seeing that in Tesla. But even Tesla had its run in the sun. So Tesla's pretty far away from a break. Yeah Tesla is pretty far away from a record high. But here's a five year chart. Finally getting to some interesting levels here. Yeah. >> And now let's stick with tech Jared because you on this very show have been also talking to us about the drama the saga chips versus software. Where are we there. >> Well I'll tell you where we are chips today are beating software today. But this is another aspect of the rotation that's going on. It's a healthy part of the market or a healthy aspect of the market. You can see Nvidia there. That's a leader. Obviously that's up almost 2. But Avgo Broadcom up 2.5. Just seeing a lot of performance. And then you contrast that from the view that we get when we look at software. Well that's another story. But I'll tell you what you look at the year to date totals. You're going to see lots of green on the screen, a little bit of red, very similar situation for the semiconductors, maybe a little bit less red, maybe a little bit more green. But that's what you want to see. And it's this rotation that I'm talking about isn't limited to tech. Now we haven't seen like financials and industrials really perk up recently. But that's what they did last year when the mega when the Mag seven finally took a back seat they stepped up. So that's what we want to see. Is it going to happen this time. >> All right Jared Blikre takeaway point number two. >> You bet. Are we only on number two right now. All right, I'll go a little faster. Record earnings expectations. Now here's a very simple chart. This goes back to kind of December 2021 S&P 500 earnings expectations. They are at a record now $259 per share. That's the Ford 12 month target there. And what's interesting you can see this bottomed right around the change of the new year at the beginning of last year. But stocks actually bottomed in October. This is forward looking. You can probably ship this forward 3 or 6 months. So what this is telling me is there's still gas in the tank for earnings to run. >> And when you look at this is this all. This is all big tech. This is all mag seven. >> You know it's not necessarily there's a lot more going on in here. I was just showing some heat maps with the other mag seven. I do expect some of these stocks, some of these other groups to perk up, but who's to say when that's going to happen? What I am encouraged by is that we're seeing a breadth expansion in earnings expectations. And let me break that down. So if you take all the components of the of the S&P 500, over 80% of them have experienced earnings revision to the upside over the last three months. So that's all gas in the tank for the next three months. >> All right Jerry Booker final Takeaway. >> Let's get to it. Yes. >> All right Sam rule close to being triggered. >> Let's do it. Sam. >> That is a recession rule. And so I did the back. I'm not going to go over the exact formula, but if unemployment ticks up to 4.2% the next month or the month after. So we're talking about the July readings in the August readings that could green light the fed, cutting rates in September, and that is ahead of an election year or ahead of an election. But this is such good cover that the fed could probably get away with that. And I would expect if the rule does trigger, I think people will say, Jay Powell, why are you not cutting already? And some people are already doing that quickly. >> Jared, astute viewers would ask you, how does the yield curve inversion compare here? Which which can also signal recession yield? >> Okay, so the Sam rule is immediate. When you when you see the Sam rule trigger, you are at the beginning of the recession. The yield curve inversion doesn't take place for maybe a year up to two years. And by the way, the yield curve has been inverted two years. I think that's a record so hasn't really fired off just the yield curve, hasn't fired off the recession. The typical way that we're looking for. But the Sam rule could show us that we're in it in a month. >> Chips mag seven Samuel. It's all there. Thank you buddy. Appreciate it. Coming up, the great resignation may be behind us, but what does that mean for companies as more workers voluntarily stay put, more asking for a trend on the other side. First we saw the great resignation. Now workers are staying put. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, JOLTS report, the number of quits was down 500,000 in May compared to a year ago. The quits rate typically serves as a signal for how willing workers are to test the labor market waters, and voluntarily making the leap to a new role. Joining me now is Jessica Kriegel, chief scientist of workplace culture at Culture Partners. Jessica it is good to see you. And, you know, on this trend. Jessica, there was this this very good, smart article in the Journal which talked about how increasingly people feel stuck in their jobs. You know, the labor market is cooling, declining turnover, fewer internal moves. People feel stuck if viewers are watching this, Jessica, and they feel stuck. Any advice for them? Jessica. What what could they d? What should they do? >> Well, the music is stopping. And in the game of musical chairs, you want to have a seat. Which is why we're seeing the quit rates, slow down. Because ultimately, we have to be able to pay our rent and pay our mortgage. And the opportunities are not as out there as they used to be. So what does that mean for you? To answer your question, if your listener is feeling stuck, I mean, you may be stuck. Acceptance is perhaps the first step in allowing yourself to be okay with being stuck, because sometimes that is the nature of the cycle that we're in. And that's where you are. There's also something that you can do as an employee when it comes to advocating for yourself. If you're not being paid fair wages, you can show your value to your manager and ask for that increase. If the culture on your team doesn't feel very good, you can influence the culture yourself. We're all co-creating culture together. This isn't just a CEO led thing, so you can take initiative to make that better internally. But the reality is some people are stuck and we might just have to be okay with that. >> Are there? You know, Jessica, I would also think, are there moves though an employer can make? You know, an employer doesn't want people feeling stuck. I mean, that just leads to people feeling disengaged. I mean, are there things employers could do? Can they get more creative, you know, can they, you know, have people move to different cities or, you know, experiment on different teams? >> Yeah, I mean, I think all of those kind of perks and benefits are things that CEOs are trying right now. But if you want to get to the core of a culture of accountability, where people are taking initiative, where they're driving results and they're passionate about it, you have to think about how people are, what they believe in the workplace, right? So many leaders are focusing on what can we do? Maybe we move people. Maybe we let them work from home. Maybe we give them this benefit. But what is it that they believe about the value that they're creating? Their importance in the workplace, whether or not they're on a team that really cares about what you're doing and the way that you influence beliefs at work is through the experiences that you co-create for each other. So I would dig deeper as a leader if I were trying to motivate my employees and think about the employee experience that they're having every single day, and what experiences I can improve to drive the right beliefs so that they really care. Because if I'm a CEO, I want a team of people who deeply care. If I want to drive shareholder value are there may be some employers. >> Jessica, I'm just, you know, spitballing here who are listening and saying, you know, the economy is slowing. You can see that in all kinds of data. Now, the labor market is cooling, frankly. You know, they may say you should just be thankful you have a job. Is that is that the right attitude, the wrong attitude? How do you think about it? >> I mean, it's not the attitude that I would want to have as a CEO, but it's not necessarily ineffective, right? I mean, at times that is the problem with these economic cycles, is that we invest in people when we can, and then we divest when we can, and so if you have short term thinking and you're just trying to get to the end of the quarter end of the year, then yeah, let people be, let them be. I mean, sometimes leaders actually do this intentionally so that their employees will go. They want to increase attrition. And you're seeing also increased layoffs right now. So I mean, that is because people are trying to weed out all of the people who aren't putting in that extra effort as an employee. Show value, show your worth and you'll be able to hold on to that job a little bit longer. >> Big important trend and theme. >> Jessica, thank you for helping us walk through it. Appreciate it. >> Thanks for having me. >> And coming up, earnings season kicks off later this week and expectations sky high. We're going to take a look next in our chart of the day. Today. The S&P 500 hit its 35th record close this year. And with earnings season set to kick off later this week, expectations are also near all time highs. Yahoo Finance's Julie Hyman joins me now with a closer look. >> Yeah with our chart of the day here which comes to us courtesy of Bloomberg. >> That looked at some of this data. So you know we have seen these record closes one after the other. You earlier talked about it as a very slow sort of melt up. I think Ed Yardeni is the one who talked about that. And indeed, that's what it felt like here. It's not today. The gain in the S&P 500 was only a 10th of 1, but those little gains day by day is a steady melt upward that has caused all of these record highs. Now it has happened at the same time that we have seen profit expectations. Ratchet up and up and up in recent quarters. Those profit expectations were a little more muted, perhaps easier to beat. That might be a higher bar once we start getting companies reporting in earnest starting this Friday with the big banks. And so this is one of the reasons that some strategists have been pointing to as perhaps a cause for caution. Mike Wilson, who's been a longtime, cautious strategist on Wall Street over at Morgan Stanley, had talked about a potential pullback that we might see as a result of this. Adam Turnquist of LPL, who we talked to earlier today, said it's possible in the short term that we would see a pullback. But then we also talked to Barbara Duran of BDA. And she is still pretty optimistic here. >> At some point there's going to be a pullback. We know that. And what we've seen so far year to date though it's been shallow. And I think that's what's going to happen here because the underlying fundamentals are positive. The economy is slowing down. People are glad to see that. It means the fed you know, is restrictive. And they will admit that. And that's working. >> So there you hear Barbara saying, even if there is a pullback it's not going to be a dramatic one. So even though you've got perhaps stocks getting a little the rally that we've seen getting a little bit long in the tooth. And Josh there are a lot of reasons for that that people are pointed to as well, that are underlying reasons why it might not last, including the lack of breath in the market. But you still have some optimism out there and some optimism. >> Julie, we've been talking to some strategists and they'll talk earnings. They'll also talk about how, you know, increasingly some investors think, you know what. We get this weaker than expected economic data okay. They think maybe it just means Jay Powell cuts. >> As long as it's not too weak. I think that's really the caveat here is that it has to be in this sort of delicate middle zone. Right. I mean, but to your point, you know, folks like John Stolfus over at Oppenheimer raised his forecast for the S&P 500 to 5900. So we are still getting that phenomenon of the forecast continuing to go higher. Even as there are, you know, warning signs that others are flagging, at least in the short term. But for the full year, there's still a lot of optimism out there for sure. >> Thank you. Julie And that is a wrap on today's ask for a trend. Be sure to come back tomorrow at 4:30 p.m. eastern for all of the latest market moving stories affecting your wallet. Have a great night!

uvvek0s-0S0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uvvek0s-0S0

2024-07-05 00:00:00

Yahoo Finance

How investors can reposition their portfolios for Q2 earnings

well markets mixed here today after both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ hit fresh intraday record highs we kick off the second half of the year that happened this week and you might want to rebalance your portfolio to stay on track to discuss let's bring in Keith Buchanan Global Investments senior portfolio manager here with us all right so let's talk about this second half Playbook here Keith where are you seeing some rotation take place and where perhaps are investors leaning further in to their portfolio trade thank you very much for having me we're looking at the second half of this year as a um an opportunity again as you mentioned to to to rebalance a bit we've been really concentrating on large cap growth we've uh been in position our clients have benefited uh from that positioning but now we're looking to becoming a little more balanced as U it's coming into this earning season which we think is critically important every earning season important but this one is critically important to as bull market on um because of the the 10 largest names sp500 uh generate very large disproportionate amount of the growth as well um so as those NES have performed and have grown into those multiples we feel like that's going to become more and more challenging into the second half of this year into 2025 U so this earning season is really going to be a barometer for where those 10 seven to 10 names or so uh will contribute to to guidance andp 500 earnings in 2024 and 2025 um that have baked down a lot of growth and a lot of that come from those those top largest names in the sp500 Keith it's been a a a hot Nvidia year could be a hot Nvidia summer who knows I mean as we're thinking about some of this specific overcrowded trades that investors have piled into were you anticipating that we could see a shift at least in the mindset of where some investors who might have been talking about their own portfolio and trading strategy the barbecue over the past couple days are trying to figure out okay I've seen insiders taking some profits should I be taking profits too how can investors know when it is the right time to take profits and reallocate them um we've seen you know large SC growth technology um artificial intelligence oriented names um just really become uh make the market really topheavy um and and we're looking at spaces outside of that we again we've been positioned for that for some time now um but they're looking spaces like um the consumer which is really driving you know this Market really kept us out of recession for the last four years of um you know a turbulent Market environment um the middle to Haw and consumers is doing a little better than uh those on the ends um we feel like Costco actually is a name that benefits from that um that shift in in in spending that's remain more steady with the high and middle income earners as well Financial we feel like the steepening of the yield curve has really made those names prop up a bit over the last couple of weeks um of course we're coming into you know when those names the money center Banks start to report um and we're positioned um to benefit from some of that as well so we look we looking at financials some names and and consumer driven names a couple Industrials as well that might be oriented as as value stocks um but we feel like a position to take the mantle of this bull market um as the top 10 names of the F of The Magnificent 7 if you will um coming to some earnings stresses that might hamper those performances from those names going for in the second half of this year Keith what do you believe the prevailing theme for the earnings season that we're about to go into could be is this growth real the bottom up expectation is for 9% growth in 2024 a large portion of that the majority of that is coming in the second half of this year um without the top 10 s sp500 names that growth expected to be about 6% so almost a little over a third of that is coming from just a few names um there will be a lot of attention on the apples and Nvidia and and Microsoft of the world and rightfully so because as if that earnings growth is five instead of Nine the multiple of the market completely changes um so there's a lot of riding on this earning season particular for those few names um as the S&P 500 again has been priced for tremendous growth frankly over the second half this year and next year whether we can fulfill that expectation as yet to be seen to what extent just lastly while we have you Keith to what extent is the general election here in the US a wrench in portfolios coming into uh what is expected to be another vitriolic type of event here in the US um politics has been inter interwoven in market dynamics for some time now um we think this year is going to be one of those Banner years where politics dictates the the movements and fixed income and Equity markets particularly in the US also from a currency standpoint uh we've seen that change since the debate on on Thursday in a pretty dramatic way it's shifted very hard um in a in a kind of a prot trunp manner on Friday and then some on Monday um but that some much shifted back um in in this week that is really like holiday week so it's really hard to have any main takeaways um but as this second half wears on we will see that become more and more um a focus of of the market place and and those baits bets that have taking place and being placed um depending on the polls will come um you know come to AE in November um I think down ballot as well we've seen some some shifts as far as where spending could be and what it um you know what parts of the market can benefit from that um also being an opportunity and potentially even a challenge for some parts of the uh Equity Market those B again it's it's fairly early to to place the and really have hard takeaways from from where we are right now politically um we kind of shy away from that until things come into more Focus later in the fall U we think the earnings driver really the was pushing markets um back and forth especially from a monetary policy standpoint as well um we saw the job's report this morning how that plays into what the federal reserve's reaction function may be and how that might change coming into the fall um that's that's we feel like a more predominant uh dictator of the direction of markets at this point certainly Keith Buchanan Global investment senior portfolio manager great to see you Keithan thanks so much for joining us today thank you

rU2BSGtI_N0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rU2BSGtI_N0

2024-07-05 00:00:00

Yahoo Finance

Americans' retirement savings surged by 19%: Vanguard report

we've all heard Americans are struggling to save for retirement but are they the average retirement account balance increased by 19% last year that's compared to 2022 and more than 4 in 10 people raised the amount of money they set aside into their 401K accounts according to a Vanguard report to discuss the study Yahoo finances very own Carrie Hannon is here hey Carrie hey Brad great to be here yeah I mean we all hear so much Doom and Gloom about people not saving enough for retirement or being woefully behind that this just was very encouraging to see a Vanguard take a look back at 2023 and they saw some really positive optimistic Trends people were saving more and people were contributing more to their accounts and so you know let's break down what this happened uh what what sort of is behind all of this and the biggest trend is auto enrollment and auto escalation and what that means is employers automatically put people into their their um employer provided retirement account their 401k and then they raise it up each year so it kind of gets away from that inertia of people not making that decision to get rolling and to increase the amount this has done a huge uh amount in pushing people to save more and I think it's a really great Trend employers have also doubled the amount uh that they contribute as a match uh to 4% or more it used to decade ago it was about half of that so that's fantastic um news as well and the second thing that's behind it Brad in many ways is target funds I mean target funds have become you know they absolutely rule the day now and most people are in these target funds which as as the listeners know and the viewers know it's set and forget right you you make your investment and then as the markets go up and down and as you age they gradually reduce your risk say you say you're going to retire in 2035 then as you get towards that date it goes from equities down to more fixed income and it really helps people not trade as much which is quite good for these accounts because there's not a lot of shaking up and for younger workers Vanguard um has found that it's super helpful because they used to be not um invested enough in equities and so as a result they lost out on growth and this helps them get in at a better uh a better sort of composition of the retirement account for their future so that's great news they um another study I looked at Trans America showed that you know younger workers are actually starting to save for retirement at age 20 gen Z and that compares to 25 for Millennials and you know uh Gen X started at 30 or so so we're seen a movement that start saving earlier which I absolutely love um now before I get too crazy I got to say there was one sort of caveat to the the Vanguard report I need to mention is that more people than ever Out rated their retire account so this is a small percentage but I've got to tell you it's worth looking at and a concern and they did it mostly probably prompted by inflation for medical bills and housing expenses but as we know if you do that if you B if you withdraw from your retirement account for these things and there are some exceptions uh to this rule but but you generally are if you're not 59 and a half you're going to pay a 10% penalty and you're going to pay tax and that money is gone so those are just a couple of things that that that kind of ated out of that and my final point is that even though I'm so excited to see these positive numbers for once the fact is half of Americans still do not uh who work in the private sector do not have access to an employer provided retirement plan and what that means is they really do have to voluntarily you know jump in and get going Carrie Hannon a lot of gems from that study appreciate you breaking it down for us thanks so much Carrie thanks Brad

BcVsl6Ffgu8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BcVsl6Ffgu8

2024-07-05 00:00:00

Yahoo Finance

Auto Loans 101: 3 must-know tips for car buyers

if you're in the market for a new car getting the right auto loan is important for keeping your budget intact here with some auto loan tips is Yahoo finance contributor and host of financial freestyle on Yahoo finance Ross Mac hey Ross how you doing brother I'm good I'm good okay so what do people need to be keeping in mind as they're trying to make sure that affordability is being prioritize but also protection and coverage when they're making that auto purchase first things first you got to know your budget when you're in the market for a car right I think when we start thinking about what we're spending our money on quite often we're overspending it especially when it comes to a car A good rule of thumb try not to spend more than 10% of your monthly take-one income right and so just to give you an idea the average car note payment for this year 2024 for a new car is roughly $723 meaning that a person should be making $7,000 take-home income right and so obviously that's not the average so as you can see quite often a person probably will be overspending when it comes to a car unless they're willing to live within their means another thing to think about is you have to prioritize your credit score because that could be the difference in paying you know thousands of dollars just based on Purely the interest rate that you're going to get right and I think another thing as you're thinking about your credit score you want to say what could I be what could I be doing now leading up until that time I purchased my car meaning you don't want to make any new big purchases AKA applying for any new credit you don't want to be closing down any other credit cards or any credit that you have because that's going to just overall make your length of credit history uh lower and another thing to think about is just understanding overall what's your affordability you need to go into the market saying hey you know there other costs associated with that car not just the car note you got insurance you got maintenance you got obviously the interest rate and a few other things gas right and so if someone has a dotted their dotted their eyes crossed their tees everything and secur themselves alone it's now the time to head to the dealership what are some tips that people should follow to make sure that they stay with in their budget when they're making that purchase I love that I think first things first go online and get preapproved going into the dealership I love the the concept of going in there saying hey I've been pre-approved for $60,000 or for whatever the number is right and then that gives you the ability to still stay within that range and not you know be tempted with a few other things right because when you go in there you got to understand that dealer financing often is more EXP expensive right I think you know the the car sales might make more money if you're using dealer financing as opposed to saying oh I'm preapproved here's my paperwork I'm ready to go and so that's something to think about another thing to think about is you know understand those add-ons right that that car salesman hey do you want this extended warranty or do you want this or do you want that it sounds good but just understand how quickly you can have you can go from $50,000 C to $65,000 with a few add-ons so those are the things that I would recommend right do I need the sport package do I need it is it going to get me to work faster this is just a a Tob car Ross thanks so much for taking the time apprciate it great to see you and make sure to check out Financial freestyle on Yahoo finance Mondays 12:00 p.m. Eastern with the man himself Ross maack

ObUZcToovaU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ObUZcToovaU

2024-07-05 00:00:00

Yahoo Finance

Homebuyers face double whammy in mortgage rates, low inventory

buying a home just became a little bit more expensive mortgage rates hitting their first weekly increased since May this week to break down what you need to know if you're in the market for a new home Jessica LZ who is the National Association of Realtors deputy chief Economist and vice president of research joins us now Jessica great to have you here on the show with us okay so where are we seeing perhaps some continued movement in the housing market especially knowing that a lot of consumers are hearing headlines like housing prices at alltime highs and trying to figure out where their best entry point is yeah so it's really difficult for consumers today and really discouraging actually as we hit the summer months knowing that interest rates are actually back on the climb now we don't know if that's sustained or if we're going to see interest rates really in this range for a substantial period of time and I I think this is probably where we're going to be uh when we think about a home buyer today looking at affordable price points this is where they're having a very difficult time finding housing inventory that has been very tight at very expensive uh price points we are seeing that more buyers are in that market uh because they can afford that uh and we also know that people have a lot of housing Equity so they're able to make these expensive trades certainly and and as we're thinking about how that's playing into the calculus of buying a new home versus buying an existing home where are you seeing that trade-off kind of net Out Among the those perspective buyers so when we think about uh the new Home Market we know that it had been historically a smaller portion of what it is today that being said we know that right now uh we need more Home Building than we currently have housing starts actually have been pretty flat if we think about the last couple of months of data so this is not encouraging when we think about the need for more housing starts to come into the market for new housing inventory if you think about an existing unit there's many people who are locked into these lower interest rates if they financed or refinanced their home at 3.5% versus uh about nearly 7% today we're talking about a very substantial change in that mortgage payment that they may not be willing to do or cannot pay for that change above $700 a month really do you see affordability getting any better as the FED begins to cut interest rates anticipated in the second half of this year well it's all part of the equation certainly mortgage rates if we see them coming down even a little bit could be encouraging news for home buyers but we also know that home prices are continuing to go up in fact if we see mortgage rates come down we could actually see more bidding wars in the housing market today with this really limited housing inventory and that's just part of the equation that perhaps some people may not feel encouraged to jump into right now we look at the housing market today even with interest rates higher we know that 30% of homes are moving over the asking price so if interest rates are cut and then that impacts mortgage rates as well potentially more biders hopping in and then with that bidding war you could see the price having even more of a premium on top of it I mean then at what point would we finally see you know enough of the property that is sold through and for those who may say all right well I'll just build a new home if they have that luxury or are able to do so at what point would you see the the settling of some of that activity and perhaps retrenching to more normalization I would say we need to have several years of homebuilding activity that's quite strong to bring in some equilibrium to the market because the big thing that we have right now is a huge wave of young adults coming into the housing market trying to find their first property at the exact same time that baby boomers are hitting retirement actively in retirement looking for that perfect home as well it's putting a lot of pressure on the housing market right now for limited inventory at the same time that current homeowners are unwilling or unable to be able to move all right I want to end this conversation with some actionable tips for those who are excited they're revved up they're going out to some open houses this weekend what do they need to be keeping in mind Jessica well stay in close touch with your experts you want to make sure that you have your realtor on your side but you also want to make sure that you're keeping in close touch with your mortgage broker to make sure that you can afford the homes that you're looking for all right Jessica Lau is the National Association of Realtors deputy chief Economist and vice president of of research good to have you on the program here with us today Jessica thank you

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2024-07-05 00:00:00

Yahoo Finance

The top job search on ZipRecruiter is blank. Here's why.

in the June jobs report we saw gains in government Health Care social assistance and construction Julia Pollock who is the zip recruiter Chief Economist is here to discuss the industries that are hiring right now great to see you Julia and thanks so much for joining us here on the show today so where are we seeing some moderation and then where are there jobs to be found so we're seeing some moderation on the services side of the economy the private sector is seeing fewer jobs being added uh and the bulk of hiring now is is taking place in government and Healthcare uh you know government hiring is pretty interesting those payrolls have have risen by about 600,000 over the past year that's an extraordinary number uh mostly on the local government side uh part of this has to do with the fact that it's an election year and so all eyes are on the performance of our local public schools and our police departments and there's tremendous Demand on zip recruiter right now for law enforcement skills interesting okay and so of the demand that you are seeing on zip recruiter what are some of the top searches that are being initiated from those that are looking for jobs too so the top search right now is actually a blank search people don't know what they're looking for they don't know what's out there uh we have a lot of new grads hitting the market who uh have you know just finished their training programs in the last couple of weeks and uh don't really know what's out there uh they need help and guidance and that is why AI is increasingly being used uh in in job search to help people discover jobs and to connect them with opportunities that are a good match for their skills and interests what does true normalization look like in in the jobs economy we're having this conversation earlier 4.1% sure the the highest that we've seen in about two years or so but again as we were hearing from some of the economists earlier on during the hours that yo Finance has been live this morning that's just us back to normal so historically this is a you know very resilient robust labor market we've seen job gains of about 177,000 on average the past three months that's actually above what we saw in 2019 when uh we we had job growth of 164,000 a month the issue now though is that the labor market is slackening so in 2019 we saw these kinds of job gains but unemployment was falling because participation wasn't Rising as quickly we actually need to add more jobs now given that the lab Market is growing by more than 200,000 people a month or else we will continue to see unemployment tick upwards and that is not good for job Seekers and workers I think it's a reason we've seen the job Seeker confidence Index this month fall to the lowest level uh since we began measuring it what should people who are beginning their job searches or perhaps job hopping job switching expect of the wage front so wage growth is cooling but inflation has cooled faster and so workers are actually getting real wage increases again after a 25mon stretch in which their wages were losing value in real terms after inflation uh so the wage picture I think is quite Rosy and encouraging and it's not necessarily the case that this wage growth will be inflationary uh because productivity growth has been pretty strong so hopefully these wage gains are sustainable certainly you know as you're kind of looking across the number of companies that are listing or are actively looking for people to come and help them with their perhaps generative AI projects or maybe just to be a police officer you know with all of the recruitment that you are seeing and tracking across where are companies perhaps coming off of the hiring freeze bench and saying okay now we feel comfortable bringing people back into our headcount so there are several places where we saw overall employment levels actually fall at around 2022 but they're gra they're they're gradually Rising now one area is in Home Building uh that was an area that took a Hard Knock when the FED Rose uh raised interest rates but now it's actually at at a high a post Great Recession High we're also seeing Tech adding jobs very gradually month after month a lot of that is in AI uh but that sector had been pretty stagnant for a while also in response to high interest rates you know just lastly while we have you there's a lot lot of implications when we're getting more economic data trying to spell out a trend of the employment situation of what the FED may do off of all of this data what is your best anticipation of what we could see in the back half of this year from the Federal Reserve well I think at this next meeting the FED is going to be very seriously debating when to start cutting rates and I think there'll be a large contingent pushing for a September cut it's quite possible that we'll see a September cut and another one in December in December if inflation data keeps heading in this direction Julia poo who is the zip recruiter Chief Economist Julia great to see you and thanks again for joining us thanks Brad

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2024-07-05 00:00:00

Yahoo Finance

2024 elections: Biden's party woes, UK's Labour priorities

[Music] President Biden facing ongoing pressure from within his own party and Beyond to bow out of November's election after last Thursday's debate performance with many calling into question his mental Fitness for another four years in office for more on the president's future let's bring in Terry Haynes Pangia policy founder here Terry what are your anticipations going into this weekend knowing that there's a big interview that President Biden is going to be doing where the Americans will have another opportunity to assess the Acuity well thanks for having me I I I said right after the debate last week that I didn't think the president would would get out uh for a very simple reason you don't try to become president for 50 years and then Chuck it after one uh one debate performance uh but now he's in a situation where you know he doesn't have three strikes in you're out uh he's already had one strike he gets one more so every day between now and the election he's either going to have to convince people regular voters that as well as the party Grandes and fundraisers and the like the regular voters that he's up to the task and he's able to actually carry this thing off and Win It U otherwise he's going to be gone pretty quickly what do you make of the number of big money donors that are shifting how they're prioritizing they're giving to the Democratic party and specifically to the the Biden campaign with this question mark kind of looming large over this weekend look in in politics as as and in many other professions uh you know the the motivations have a whole lot are a whole lot more selfish than uh than you'd think and I think uh that's what's going on with a lot of these donors who have already have already put up a substantial amount of money have pledged a little bit more and are in a situation where you know they're threatening as you say to to uh repurpose or whatever but uh fundraisers always think they have an outside outsized impact uh on the political machinations on the inside and they they're not able I don't think to uh to affect the result much uh they can provide a little extra push if it comes to that uh but they're not in control Terry you're currently in London what's your reaction to yesterday's UK election results with labor taking over in the next government and what would happen if Trump were to win the president's or if Biden or another Democrat were to win well you know the uh the election is an interesting one of a landslide with no mandate uh Jane Foley was talking about this a little bit but I'll give you kind of a slightly different look for it uh labor won about 2third of the seats in the Commons yet had a a 35% vote share uh the uh and first pass the post really means I mean for American audiences really means nothing different than what we have but what you had in uh in the Commons elections were were three or four or sometimes even five political parties going at it for for each individual seat so you get a sense a situation where labor vote labor seat totals are pushed up because the opposition votes split between the conservatives and reform let's say similarly conservatives lost an outside number of seats frankly because of Reform and you've got two political parties uh the lib Dems with their best ever showing and you've got this new Reform Party with four seats even though they got 15% of the vote uh but what you see here is not a mandate for labor or Labor's policies but frankly a uh situation where there's disgust and dissatisfaction with conventional Politics as it's been practiced in in in the UK now finally what starmer is going to have to do is proceed cautiously and frankly you know bring the country along with him uh so you know you're not going to see labor jump in here and all of a sudden start wildly taxing people uh you know the way a prior government might have done because that's just not going to wash with people they've worked very hard to get credibility back and they can't squander it immediately Terry Haynes Pangia policy founder Terry good to see you here and thanks so much for taking the time it's got to be at least afternoon some sometime over in the UK thanks so much

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2024-07-05 00:00:00

Yahoo Finance

Pound jumps on UK Labour win. The hurdles the party now faces

Jane I wanted to get your take on the labor party win in the UK and the movement that we've seen with the British pound against the dollar the EUR against the dollar as well what's your take well you know if we look at uh at cable well yeah you know that has done pretty well in fact Sterling right now is the best performing currency over the last 24 hours or so the dollar of course is weakened um by itself over the last few sessions as the mark Market looks ahead to the possibility of a September interest rate cup but Sterling has done well I mean the gains that we saw today weren't great they were fairly moderate but actually Sterling is now the best performing G10 currency in the year to date and that doesn't mean it's a strong currency but it does mean that it is improving really from a very low base that we had back in September 2022 when we had you know truss onomics and and the guilt Market uh really worried about what that prime minister uh may do now she Liz truss today lost her seat and we have of course an awful lot of headlines uh telling us that we had we've now got a a landslide Victory uh for the labor party now that of course is true but if you dig a little bit deeper into the data perhaps you see something not quite so encouraging for the labor party now in the UK we have a first pass the post system but labor managed to pick up this majority of seats by only getting a very small increase in the National share sh of votes because what it appears has happened is that voters that previously had voted for the Tory party haven't necessarily all migrated to labor but they've gone to smaller parties instead meaning that labor hasn't really picked up an awful lot more votes this time around and that suggests it's going to have to deliver on growth and productivity and and and people's incomes if it really is going to win the election next time around and the Euro edging higher with the next round of voting in the French election taking place this weekend as well what what are you anticipating there well you know I think that's a lot more interesting perhaps than the UK election now the market has been encouraged Euro certainly moving up as as polls come out that the far right the pens farri right party is unlikely to win a majority now from the Market's point of view hung Parliament is is better than a majority for the far right but you know it's very difficult to celebrate a a hung Parliament because if we think about France's budget position position it's not great the the budget deficit in France is is 5.5% of GDP uh Brussels has wrapped um France on the knuckles along with Italy and and six other EU countries uh earlier well just about two or three weeks ago for not doing enough really to to ctail their budget deficit and when you have a hung Parliament yeah you may not have at the far right in in enacting some of their policies but it's going to be tough uh to try and get that budget deficit in a lot of the far-right policies uh things like wanting to reduce the retirement age could be expensive a lot of the policies of the of the leftwing alliance which is second after the far right in this election are also uh potentially going to cost uh France more money so it could be quite difficult to get that budget deficit in and that probably means as we go into the second you know half of this year we could be increasing worri about some of the budgetary positions of of countries such as France and maybe Italy too Jane Foley thank you so much for taking the time here with us today head of FX strategy over at Robo Bank Jane Foley thanks