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2023-03-12T12:10:08.000Z | zerohedge | Why Credit Needs A Golden Anchor | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 89 | 98 | 0 |
2023-03-12T12:06:46.000Z | WSJmarkets | State regulators are pushing back on life insurers’ use of data science to speed up applications | Neutral | Legal | Regulation | 85 | 84 | 89 |
2023-03-12T12:04:45.000Z | AvidCommentator | Great follows of the week
@Mayhem4Markets
@amlivemon
@nglinsman
@f_wintersberger
@wolfofwolfst
@chigrl
@Raphfel
@BobEUnlimited
@INArteCarloDoss
@Bellehos
@AyeshaTariq
@WifeyAlpha
@gbponz
@kimchipump
@PPGMacro
@StephenPunwasi
@UrbanKaoboy
@DiMartinoBooth | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 97 | 96 | 97 |
2023-03-12T12:01:01.000Z | FTMarkets | Will the European Central Bank signal further rate rises are coming? | Neutral | Fed | Central Banks | 99 | 99 | 128 |
2023-03-12T12:00:16.000Z | TheStreet | Here's how to save money on an overseas flight | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 100 | 99 | 135 |
2023-03-12T11:58:31.000Z | M_PaulMcNamara | RT @KarlBode: you can set your watch to this stuff
work tirelessly to defang regulators and deregulate long-problematic industries, then p… | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 100 | 99 | 176 |
2023-03-12T11:58:10.000Z | adam_tooze | Chartbook: Chinese manufacturing dominance, the slave-trade & the industrial revolution, Yuan Shikai remembered & anti-fascist footballers | Neutral | Macro | 97 | 65 | 212 |
2023-03-12T11:57:51.000Z | M_PaulMcNamara | RT @CasPiancey: “The public should never root for a bank run”
They’re rooting for it because it’s the VC bank and they hate your guts.
“T… | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 99 | 98 | 177 |
2023-03-12T11:55:10.000Z | adam_tooze | Chartbook: Top links 174 Chinese manufacturing dominance, the slave-trade & the industrial revolution, Yuan Shikai remembered & anti-fascist footballers | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 98 | 50 | 213 |
2023-03-12T11:46:30.000Z | FT | The UK chancellor’s fiscal conundrum | opinion | Neutral | Politics | 100 | 97 | 269 |
2023-03-12T11:46:01.000Z | TheTranscript_ | $DIS CEO: "We're not recession-proof..." | Bearish | Stock Commentary | 85 | 99 | 296 |
2023-03-12T11:45:07.000Z | economics | The UK is known for its pub culture. Gen Z doesn't care | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 97 | 89 | 323 |
2023-03-12T11:41:17.000Z | TheTranscript_ | $DIS CEO: "Disney is a 100-year-old brand. It was created in 1923. And when you think about brands in the world that have survived 10 decades of existence ...there aren't many you could name. There's actually only one. I think it's Coca-Cola, when you think about it" | Neutral | Stock Commentary | 93 | 59 | 297 |
2023-03-12T11:35:08.000Z | zerohedge | France's First Lady Loses Transgender Lawsuit | Neutral | Legal | Regulation | 61 | 99 | 1 |
2023-03-12T11:34:11.000Z | economics | Aramco's dividend is a crucial source of funding for the Saudi government | Neutral | Dividend | 97 | 95 | 324 |
2023-03-12T11:27:54.000Z | TheTranscript_ | $SIVB is touching even the royals: | Bullish | Stock Commentary | 57 | 100 | 298 |
2023-03-12T11:26:25.000Z | elerianm | From the @FT and illustrating that, with an active "Silicon Valley Bank UK," the direct disruptions from the #SVB drama in the US have global spillovers (let alone the indirect ones).
Interestingly, there have been more policy signals coming out of the UK than out of the US
#SVIB | Neutral | Politics | 90 | 48 | 463 |
2023-03-12T11:25:00.000Z | TheTranscript_ | Buffett last month: "As for the future, Berkshire will always hold a boatload of cash and U.S. Treasury bills along with a wide array of businesses. ...Our CEO will always be the Chief Risk Officer – a task it is irresponsible to delegate" $BRK.A $BRK.B | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 98 | 39 | 299 |
2023-03-12T11:24:21.000Z | tracyalloway | This is important, I think, and we already saw hints of it with Credit Suisse last year. But maybe it shouldn’t be a surprise that the first post-crisis US bank failure involved a highly networked social group (tech/VCs). | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 84 | 96 | 471 |
2023-03-12T11:10:05.000Z | economics | The Federal Reserve Bank of New York says stress on the world’s beleaguered supply chains have finally returned to normal — below normal, in fact | Bearish | Fed | Central Banks | 86 | 98 | 325 |
2023-03-12T11:03:42.000Z | economics | Britain is going through a lost decade worse than the 1990s in Japan | Bearish | Macro | 99 | 98 | 326 |
2023-03-12T11:03:42.000Z | economics | The unpredictable behavior of Germany’s ruling coalition is becoming a disruptive influence in Europe and raising hackles across the continent | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 80 | 79 | 327 |
2023-03-12T11:00:13.000Z | TheStreet | It looks like the Final Frontier will have to wait | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 99 | 82 | 136 |
2023-03-12T11:00:08.000Z | zerohedge | UK Disinformation Unit Monitored Headmaster Who Questioned COVID-19 Vaccines For Children | Neutral | Company | Product News | 92 | 99 | 2 |
2023-03-12T10:49:52.000Z | elerianm | From this week's edition of @TheEconomist.
Also, we should not forget the financial stability risks, especially in the case of the #FederalReserve but also the @ECB.
In sum, #CentralBanks face a trilemma and not just a dilemma.
More to follow
#economy #EconTwitter #fed #inflation | Neutral | Fed | Central Banks | 95 | 98 | 464 |
2023-03-12T10:48:28.000Z | economics | South Korea's senior finance ministers held an emergency meeting at the weekend to gauge the impact of SVB on local markets and the economy | Neutral | Macro | 91 | 70 | 328 |
2023-03-12T10:40:00.000Z | economics | House prices in plum London neighborhoods are diverging, making it a challenging time for the secret agent's Chelsea client to sell | Neutral | Macro | 75 | 83 | 329 |
2023-03-12T10:33:09.000Z | TheTranscript_ | RT @TheTranscript_: 3 relevant quotes from $SIVB CEO at the $MS TMT conference on Tuesday this week:
1. He mentioned FTX 😬:
"If you're si… | Neutral | Stock Commentary | 95 | 100 | 300 |
2023-03-12T10:31:51.000Z | TheTranscript_ | RT @realmemes6: "One of these things is not like the others, one of these things doesn't belong..."
Any bank can be taken down by a bank ru… | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 97 | 98 | 301 |
2023-03-12T10:31:05.000Z | M_PaulMcNamara | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 97 | 98 | 178 |
|
2023-03-12T10:30:50.000Z | M_PaulMcNamara | Here we go again @dsquareddigest @jeuasommenulle | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 100 | 99 | 179 |
2023-03-12T10:30:28.000Z | TheTranscript_ | British Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt on the UK subsidiary of $SIVB:
"..there is a serious risk to some of our most promising companies in tech & life sciences..We want to find a way that minimises or if we possibly can avoids all losses to those incredibly promising companies" | Neutral | Macro | 85 | 53 | 302 |
2023-03-12T10:27:15.000Z | M_PaulMcNamara | If your bank goes bust with all your money your’re not just “technically” insolvent. | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 98 | 97 | 180 |
2023-03-12T10:26:19.000Z | M_PaulMcNamara | Is… is that Guy Fawkes? (My Ukrainian isn’t great but I’m pretty sure the caption is “dick”) | Neutral | Politics | 100 | 51 | 181 |
2023-03-12T10:25:26.000Z | M_PaulMcNamara | RT @Limerick1914: This far-right propaganda from Hitchens is not a surprise. It’s been a long term goal of the extreme right to attempt to… | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 97 | 97 | 182 |
2023-03-12T10:14:01.000Z | economics | More signs of stress are appearing in Ireland's property market | Bearish | General News | Opinion | 73 | 59 | 330 |
2023-03-12T10:13:30.000Z | M_PaulMcNamara | Usually an indicator that things are going badly for 🇷🇺 | Bearish | General News | Opinion | 89 | 99 | 183 |
2023-03-12T10:08:55.000Z | M_PaulMcNamara | RT @Streettough: His tweet is still up. Lineker didn’t mention the holocaust. He compared the language being used. It has not stopped peopl… | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 98 | 98 | 184 |
2023-03-12T10:08:14.000Z | M_PaulMcNamara | The really interesting bit here is that Ed doesn’t even appear to be getting any hate from the Quitlings. They’ve actually given up. | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 98 | 88 | 185 |
2023-03-12T10:02:41.000Z | economics | In the last few decades, British society has changed immensely. Its institutions, much less so. Therein lies the secret of its enduring appeal, argues @nfergus | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 93 | 84 | 331 |
2023-03-12T10:01:31.000Z | FT | Silicon Valley Bank’s China venture in doubt as start-ups struggle to access US funds | Bearish | Company | Product News | 93 | 55 | 270 |
2023-03-12T10:01:14.000Z | jeuasommenulle | 190bn of *uninsured* deposits* of course, sorry | Neutral | Macro | 99 | 54 | 478 |
2023-03-12T10:00:18.000Z | TheStreet | Here's where America really wants to honeymoon | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 100 | 99 | 137 |
2023-03-12T09:54:31.000Z | AvidCommentator | If this SVB stuff is enough to get the Fed to cut rates and bring back the firehose of liquidity, then the system is f***ed.
As things stand I dont think it's enough to make them do anything like that.
But that isnt stopping a conga line of folks calling for it. | Neutral | Fed | Central Banks | 99 | 71 | 98 |
2023-03-12T09:52:02.000Z | AvidCommentator | RT @SRuhle: Watching a group of dudes who normally preach from Ayn Rand's book of philosophy suddenly demand Biden rescue $SVIB depositors… | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 98 | 58 | 99 |
2023-03-12T09:50:06.000Z | M_PaulMcNamara | RT @jrhopkin: Well at least they’ve got a sense of humour | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 99 | 99 | 186 |
2023-03-12T09:47:58.000Z | M_PaulMcNamara | RT @Standplaats_KRK: | Neutral | Stock Commentary | 99 | 53 | 187 |
2023-03-12T09:45:59.000Z | ftfinancenews | Silicon Valley Bank’s China venture in doubt as start-ups struggle to access US funds | Bearish | Company | Product News | 93 | 55 | 505 |
2023-03-12T09:45:00.000Z | WSJCentralBanks | Economy Week Ahead: New figures on consumer prices are expected to show the latest trend for inflation | Neutral | Macro | 77 | 99 | 517 |
2023-03-12T09:41:06.000Z | economics | Havering — home to three new Elizabeth Line stations — is one of only two London boroughs where house prices have risen by double digits in the past year | Neutral | Company | Product News | 90 | 73 | 332 |
2023-03-12T09:38:09.000Z | WSJmarkets | Traders wonder if other fast-growing banks might follow SVB’s failure | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 83 | 90 | 90 |
2023-03-12T09:32:13.000Z | economics | The only two new top bureaucrats China introduced over the weekend were the defense minister and the head of the economic planning agency | Neutral | Politics | 100 | 93 | 333 |
2023-03-12T09:31:10.000Z | jeuasommenulle | And yeah, please have banks do proper IRRBB analysis.
(Also, please dont "remindmeintwoweeks" this thread please 😂) | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 100 | 96 | 479 |
2023-03-12T09:30:38.000Z | jeuasommenulle | Longer term, I think we’re heading towards a European approach: US will think hard about resolution & bank failures & might move in the EU’s direction with new legislation: higher level of seniority for uninsured retail deposits (as in BRRD) and maybe a larger resolution fund. | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 97 | 67 | 480 |
2023-03-12T09:30:20.000Z | jeuasommenulle | That should be enough to stop the complaints about “paying payrolls” & all. But having a retail bank in quasi bankruptcy for a long time isn’t good, so we should expect a buyer to emerge, clean the book & ALM and pay depositors some more. I don’t see a large haircut in the end. | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 97 | 93 | 481 |
2023-03-12T09:30:00.000Z | jeuasommenulle | If they were able to pay 50% on IndyMac they should be able to do the same here too, and very quickly. Maybe even more, like 60%-65%. | Neutral | Stock Commentary | 94 | 52 | 482 |
2023-03-12T09:29:44.000Z | jeuasommenulle | FDIC will need some time to recover assets, make a proper due diligence or find a suitable price to sell the whole thing to a larger bank but they also should be comfortable with an interim payment on uninsured deposits. | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 97 | 67 | 483 |
2023-03-12T09:29:09.000Z | jeuasommenulle | So what’s the bottom line?
Of course, when a bank fails, skeletons come out of the closet and the reality is worse than what investor slides tell you.
But still, I believe this should be a rather high-recovery failure. | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 90 | 99 | 484 |
2023-03-12T09:28:52.000Z | jeuasommenulle | Credit losses below: | Neutral | Treasuries | Corporate Debt | 88 | 32 | 485 |
2023-03-12T09:28:17.000Z | jeuasommenulle | Early stages have been growing, but nothing dramatic. And as far as credit losses are concerned, believe me I’ve seen much worse. Also worth noting that the securities business is doing OK and is an attractive franchise to buy. | Bullish | General News | Opinion | 93 | 80 | 486 |
2023-03-12T09:28:02.000Z | jeuasommenulle | What does the loan book looks like?
It’s not horrible. The yield is ok, Fund banking should be more or less ok as usually matched by LP commitments (unless of course we see LP backing out and litigate…), private bank is low LTV mortgages. | Neutral | Treasuries | Corporate Debt | 52 | 46 | 487 |
2023-03-12T09:27:39.000Z | jeuasommenulle | What matters is the rest: loan book vs. term structure liabilities. I don’t know how well this is matched (unlikely to be good considering their expertise 😊) but on loans you will have i) credit risk and ii) interest rate risk but ii) will be partially matched by liabilities. | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 98 | 40 | 488 |
2023-03-12T09:26:47.000Z | jeuasommenulle | But that’s also the easy part to fix: the bond book is liquid & a sale would wipe out the equity, but not much more (& of course they are selling in a good market as rates have rallied hard on systemic risk! Right side correlation!). | Neutral | Treasuries | Corporate Debt | 74 | 87 | 489 |
2023-03-12T09:26:42.000Z | elerianm | One of the clips from Friday's 20-minute conversation with @FerroTV and @RickRieder on @BloombergTV.
Thank you Jonathan for having us on your show.
#economy #markets #EconTwitter @markets @economics | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 99 | 98 | 465 |
2023-03-12T09:26:23.000Z | jeuasommenulle | So, is there a solution combining both?
Oddly, no one is discussing what should be the main discussion point: what are the assets worth? Here’s snapshot of the balance sheet: the problems are coming from the non-interest bearing deposits on liability side vs HTM on asset side. | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 99 | 96 | 490 |
2023-03-12T09:25:56.000Z | jeuasommenulle | Moreover, systemic risk is exagerated, but some banks with big HTM unrealised losses will face scruitiny (we know who you are), and no one wants this to spiral out of control because investors don't understand shit about IRRBB. | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 68 | 95 | 491 |
2023-03-12T09:24:46.000Z | jeuasommenulle | However, I know it’s fun to dunk on the tech bros & their horrible takes, but they have a point: 190bn of insured deposits is a lot (Popular had 55bn depos) and there are macro impacts here.
Authorities will be happy to have a solution that don’t leave all depositors naked. | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 98 | 99 | 492 |
2023-03-12T09:24:26.000Z | jeuasommenulle | 1st, I truly think SVB had a horrible business model.
Volatile & correlated sight deposits & long-term fixed rate bonds with no hedge: truly a recipe for disaster.
Fed & FDIC will be keen to avoid moral hazard there. I don't see a bailout. This is not the 1990s anymore. | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 93 | 69 | 493 |
2023-03-12T09:23:44.000Z | jeuasommenulle | Probably foolish of me to make forecasts about the future, but what do I think will happen with SVB next week? $SVIB #SVB
(I know this will horribly backfire but never mind) | Neutral | Stock Commentary | 98 | 99 | 494 |
2023-03-12T09:19:08.000Z | economics | RT @BBGaufDeutsch: Vor einem Jahr blickte Deutschland in den wirtschaftlichen Abgrund. Jetzt sprießen wieder optimistische Frühlingsgefühle… | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 99 | 93 | 334 |
2023-03-12T09:17:40.000Z | AvidCommentator | Not wrong 👇 | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 94 | 97 | 100 |
2023-03-12T09:16:06.000Z | economics | Here's the latest news on Russia's invasion of Ukraine | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 98 | 97 | 335 |
2023-03-12T09:14:01.000Z | FT | Saudi Aramco posts record $161bn profit on back of strong crude prices | Bullish | Financials | 96 | 98 | 271 |
2023-03-12T09:13:42.000Z | elerianm | A great initiative from @TheEconomist:
"The A to Z of economics:
Economic terms, from “absolute advantage” to “zero-sum game”, explained to you in plain English."
#economics #economy #econtwitter | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 99 | 94 | 466 |
2023-03-12T09:08:04.000Z | economics | New York, London and Hong Kong top the list of cities where the ultra-rich own the most homes | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 99 | 95 | 336 |
2023-03-12T09:07:43.000Z | FTMarkets | Saudi Aramco posts record $161bn profit on back of strong crude prices | Bullish | Financials | 96 | 98 | 129 |
2023-03-12T09:00:20.000Z | TheStreet | Pretty wild | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 97 | 91 | 138 |
2023-03-12T08:55:57.000Z | FT | Jeremy Hunt to lay out Budget plans to get sick and disabled back to work | Neutral | Politics | 100 | 51 | 272 |
2023-03-12T08:43:06.000Z | economics | The UK has almost £100 billion for giveaways in this week’s budget, a top economic forecaster says | Neutral | Macro | 98 | 97 | 337 |
2023-03-12T08:42:37.000Z | elerianm | ... (too-large-to-fail, too-large-to-manage, and oligopolistic anti-competition);
Co-option of monetary policy.
There is a way through this even though it's far from perfect.
That's the good news. Less good is the broader trilemma challenge highlighted by this case.
#SVBCollapse | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 92 | 92 | 467 |
2023-03-12T08:40:45.000Z | elerianm | As detailed in a column that will be posted soon, the immediate challenge facing policymakers is to balance risks in the #SVB’s resolution process, including:
The moral hazard of going beyond deposit insurance;
Concentration as more business flows to the largest banks...
1/2 | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 89 | 53 | 468 |
2023-03-12T08:38:01.000Z | FT | UK prepares cash lifeline for tech companies hit by Silicon Valley Bank collapse | Bearish | General News | Opinion | 78 | 53 | 273 |
2023-03-12T08:37:28.000Z | economics | RT @ZSchneeweiss: What to watch in the world economy this week via @CraigStirling | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 88 | 99 | 338 |
2023-03-12T08:31:05.000Z | AvidCommentator | Me, I'm waiting for the attempts to rehabilitate the image of Charles Ponzi.... | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 99 | 69 | 101 |
2023-03-12T08:08:02.000Z | economics | One of the EU’s strongest critics of a massive US climate law is warning that Washington’s subsidies and China’s policies are drawing billions of dollars of clean-tech investments away from the bloc | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 82 | 49 | 339 |
2023-03-12T08:07:02.000Z | TheTranscript_ | So many experts with threads and spaces on $SIVB 😅 | Neutral | Stock Commentary | 100 | 99 | 303 |
2023-03-12T08:00:14.000Z | TheStreet | This could change The Strip immensely | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 82 | 72 | 139 |
2023-03-12T07:48:47.000Z | economics | China’s economic data for January and February, including industrial output and retail sales, have shown notable improvement, says Kang Yi, head of National Statistics Bureau | Bullish | Macro | 82 | 100 | 340 |
2023-03-12T07:38:54.000Z | FT | Water: pricing is the key to equitable access | opinion | Neutral | Macro | 99 | 65 | 274 |
2023-03-12T07:36:03.000Z | economics | UK homes will face higher energy bills next year even if the government extends support for consumers, according to an energy think tank | Neutral | Macro | 79 | 99 | 341 |
2023-03-12T07:22:09.000Z | elerianm | Best way to work on an early Sunday morning! | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 100 | 97 | 469 |
2023-03-12T07:15:01.000Z | economics | China's move to keep central bank Governor Yi Gang and the finance team in place may boost investor confidence at a time of uncertainty | Neutral | Fed | Central Banks | 57 | 99 | 342 |
2023-03-12T07:08:05.000Z | economics | Andy Haldane, who was once the most hawkish member of the BOE’s rate-setting committee, says officials should move more carefully in raising rates again and think about taking much longer to reach its inflation target (via @tomelleryrees) | Neutral | Fed | Central Banks | 97 | 99 | 343 |
2023-03-12T07:00:18.000Z | TheStreet | Cathie Wood is replicating trades of recent weeks | Neutral | Stock Commentary | 78 | 88 | 141 |
2023-03-12T07:00:18.000Z | TheStreet | Target has invested heavily in solving this consumer pain point | Neutral | Company | Product News | 52 | 98 | 140 |
2023-03-12T06:47:25.000Z | Fxhedgers | GOLDMAN: 'IF THE FED PIVOTS UNEXPECTEDLY, MARKETS CAN REACT VIOLENTLY' | Bearish | Fed | Central Banks | 86 | 72 | 519 |
2023-03-12T06:44:30.000Z | economics | US Treasury will brief California lawmakers on SVB's collapse at 1:00pm on Sunday, amid discussions about what government response is needed | Neutral | Macro | 98 | 52 | 344 |
2023-03-12T06:42:09.000Z | economics | Cars seized by Latvian authorities as part of drunk-driving violations are being shipped to Ukraine in an act of solidarity with the war-battered country | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 90 | 98 | 345 |
2023-03-12T06:34:50.000Z | jeuasommenulle | I can hear @gianlucac1 laughing.
Atlante is back😅 | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 100 | 96 | 495 |
2023-03-12T06:31:29.000Z | bauhiniacapital | These guys should make a new newsletter platform for finance. | Neutral | General News | Opinion | 100 | 95 | 528 |
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