rlacombe/ClimateX · Datasets at Hugging Face

statement_idx int64 0 8.09k	report stringclasses 3 values	page_num int64 18 2.84k	sent_num int64 0 78	statement stringlengths 13 4.29k	confidence stringclasses 4 values	score int64 0 3	split stringclasses 2 values
400	AR6_WGI	151	14	Increases in the frequency and/or the intensity of heavy rainfall have been observed in East and West Southern Africa, and the eastern Mediterranean region	medium	1	train
401	AR6_WGI	151	15	Increasing trends in river flood occurrence can be identified beyond 1980 in East and West Southern Africa (medium confidence) and Western Africa	high	2	train
402	AR6_WGI	151	17	Over West Africa, rainfall is projected to decrease in the western Sahel subregion and increase along the Guinea Coast subregion	medium	1	train
403	AR6_WGI	151	18	Rainfall is projected to increase over Eastern Africa	medium	1	train
404	AR6_WGI	151	20	Trends towards increased hydrological droughts have been observed in the Mediterranean (high confidence) and Western Africa	medium	1	train
405	AR6_WGI	151	21	These trends correspond with projected regional increases in aridity and fire weather conditions	high	2	train
406	AR6_WGI	151	23	Over Western Africa and Southern Africa, a future significant increase in wind speed and wind energy potential is projected	medium	1	train
407	AR6_WGI	151	24	There is a projected decrease in the frequency of tropical cyclones making landfall over Madagascar, East Southern Africa and East Africa	medium	1	train
408	AR6_WGI	154	1	Additional regional changes in Asia, besides those features described in Section TS.4.3.1, include historical trends of annual precipitation that show considerable regional differences	high	2	train
409	AR6_WGI	154	2	East Asian Monsoon precipitation has changed, with drying in the north and wetting in the south since the 1950s, and annual mean precipitation totals very likely have increased over most territories of North Asia since the mid-1970s	high	2	train
410	AR6_WGI	154	3	South Asian summer monsoon precipitation decreased over several areas since the mid-20th century	high	2	train
411	AR6_WGI	154	5	Aridity in East and West Central Asia is projected to increase, especially beyond the middle of the 21st century and global warming levels beyond 2°C	medium	1	train
412	AR6_WGI	154	6	Fire weather seasons are projected to lengthen and intensify everywhere except South East Asia, Tibetan Plateau and Arabian Peninsula	medium	1	train
413	AR6_WGI	154	7	Surface wind speeds have been decreasing in Asia	high	2	train
414	AR6_WGI	154	8	Over North Asia, increases in permafrost temperature and its thawing have been observed over recent decades	high	2	train
415	AR6_WGI	154	9	Future projections indicate continuing decline in seasonal snow duration, glacial mass, and permafrost area by mid-century	high	2	test
416	AR6_WGI	154	10	Snow-covered areas and snow volumes will decrease in most regions of the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) during the 21st century, and snowline elevations will rise	high	2	train
417	AR6_WGI	154	11	Heavy snowfall is increasing in East Asia and North Asia	medium	1	train
418	AR6_WGI	154	16	Daily precipitation extremes have increased over part of the region	high	2	train
419	AR6_WGI	154	17	Extreme hydrological drought frequency has increased in a region extending from south-west to north-east China, with projected increases of agricultural and ecological drought for 4°C GWL and fire weather for 2°C and above	medium	1	test
420	AR6_WGI	154	19	Concurrently, total soil moisture is projected to decline extensively	medium	1	train
421	AR6_WGI	154	21	The frequency of heavy precipitation and flood events has increased over several areas during the last few decades	medium	1	train
422	AR6_WGI	154	23	Most of the region has experienced an increase in rainfall intensity but with a reduced number of wet days	medium	1	train
423	AR6_WGI	154	24	Rainfall is projected to increase in the northern parts of South East Asia and decrease in areas in the Maritime Continent	medium	1	train
424	AR6_WGI	155	1	Since the mid 1980’s, there has been an increase in the number and intensification rate of intense TCs (medium confidence), with a significant north-westward shift in tracks and a northward shift in their average latitude, increasing exposure over East China, the Korean Peninsula and the Japanese Archipelago	medium	1	train
425	AR6_WGI	155	5	Heavy snowfall is projected to occur more frequently in some parts of Japan	medium	1	train
426	AR6_WGI	155	9	More than 60% of glacier mass in the Caucasus is projected to disappear under RCP8.5 emissions by the end of the 21st century	medium	1	train
427	AR6_WGI	155	13	This will contribute to more frequent coastal flooding and higher ETWL in low-lying areas and coastal erosion along sandy beaches	high	2	train
428	AR6_WGI	155	16	Agricultural and ecological droughts and hydrological droughts have increased over Southern Australia (medium confidence), and meteorological droughts have decreased over Northern and Central Australia	medium	1	train
429	AR6_WGI	155	17	Relative sea level has increased over the period 1993–2018 at a rate higher than GMSL around Australasia	high	2	train
430	AR6_WGI	155	20	Agricultural and ecological droughts are projected to increase in Southern and Eastern Australia	medium	1	train
431	AR6_WGI	155	21	Fire weather is projected to increase throughout Australia (high confidence) and New Zealand	medium	1	train
432	AR6_WGI	155	22	Snowfall is expected to decrease throughout the region at high altitudes in both Australia (high confidence) and New Zealand (medium confidence), with glaciers receding in New Zealand	high	2	train
433	AR6_WGI	155	26	Annual mean precipitation is projected to increase in the south and west of New Zealand (medium confidence) and is projected to decrease in south-west Southern Australia (high confidence), Eastern Australia (medium confidence), and in the north and east of New Zealand	medium	1	train
434	AR6_WGI	155	28	Aridity is projected to increase with medium confidence in Southern Australia (high confidence in south-west Southern Australia), Eastern Australia (medium confidence) and in the north and east of New Zealand	medium	1	train
435	AR6_WGI	156	1	TCs in north-eastern and north Australia are projected to decrease in number (high confidence) but increase in intensity except for ‘east coast lows’	low	0	train
436	AR6_WGI	156	6	The present day 1-in-100-year ETWL is between 0.5–2.5 m around most of Australia, except the north-western coast where 1-in-100-year ETWL can be as high as 6–7 m. {Box 9.1, 12.3.1.5, 12.4.3.5} TS.4.3.2.4 Central and South America Additional regional changes in Central and South America, besides those features described in Section TS.4.3.1, include increases in mean and extreme precipitation in South- Eastern South America since the 1960s	high	2	train
437	AR6_WGI	156	7	Decreasing trends in mean precipitation and increasing trends in agricultural and ecological drought are observed over North-Eastern South America	medium	1	train
438	AR6_WGI	156	8	The intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation and pluvial floods is projected to increase over South-Eastern South America, Southern South America, Northern South America, South American Monsoon and North-Eastern South America	medium	1	train
439	AR6_WGI	156	9	Increases of agricultural and ecological drought are projected in South America Monsoon and Southern South America, and fire weather is projected to increase over several regions (Northern South America, the South American Monsoon, North-Eastern South America and South-Western South America)	high	2	train
440	AR6_WGI	156	21	Increased mean precipitation amounts at high latitudes in boreal winter and reduced summer precipitation in southern Europe are projected starting from a 2°C GWL	high	2	train
441	AR6_WGI	156	22	Aridity, agricultural and hydrological droughts and fire weather conditions will increase in the Mediterranean region starting from 2°C GWL	high	2	train
442	AR6_WGI	156	23	Pluvial flooding will increase everywhere with high confidence except for medium confidence in the Mediterranean; in Western and Central Europe this also applies to river flooding starting from a 2°C GWL	high	2	train
443	AR6_WGI	156	24	Most periglacial processes in Northern Europe are projected to disappear by the end of the 21st century, even for a low warming scenario	medium	1	train
444	AR6_WGI	157	3	In the European Mediterranean, the magnitude and sign of observed land precipitation trends depend on time period and exact study region	medium	1	train
445	AR6_WGI	157	7	The frequency of Medicanes (tropical-like cyclones in the Mediterranean) is projected to decrease	medium	1	train
446	AR6_WGI	157	16	Severe wind storms, tropical cyclones and dust storms in North America are shifting toward more extreme characteristics (medium confidence), and both observations and projections point to strong changes in the seasonal and geographic range of snow and ice conditions in the coming decades	very high	3	train
447	AR6_WGI	157	24	Mean wind speed and wind power potential are projected to decrease in Western North America	high	2	train
448	AR6_WGI	157	26	At sustained GWLs between 3°C and 5°C, nearly all glacial mass in Western Canada and Western North America will disappear	medium	1	train
449	AR6_WGI	158	4	Fewer but more intense tropical cyclones are projected starting from a 2°C GWL	medium	1	train
450	AR6_WGI	158	8	Higher evapotranspiration under a warming climate can partially offset future increases or amplify future reductions in rainfall, resulting in increased aridity as well as more severe agricultural and ecological drought in the Caribbean	medium	1	train
451	AR6_WGI	158	11	Shoreline retreat is projected along sandy coasts of most small islands	high	2	train
452	AR6_WGI	158	13	An intensification of the polar water cycle will increase mean precipitation, with precipitation intensity becoming stronger and more likely to be rainfall rather than snowfall	high	2	train
453	AR6_WGI	158	14	Permafrost warming, loss of seasonal snow cover, and glacier melt will be widespread	high	2	train
454	AR6_WGI	158	16	Relative sea level and coastal flooding are projected to increase in areas other than regions with substantial land uplift	medium	1	train
455	AR6_WGI	158	23	In the Arctic, this will result in higher river flood potential and earlier meltwater flooding, altering seasonal characteristics of flooding	high	2	train
456	AR6_WGI	158	24	A lengthening of the fire season (medium confidence) and encroachment of fire regimes into tundra regions	high	2	train
457	AR6_WGI	158	27	Permafrost warming and thawing have been widespread in the Arctic since the 1980s	high	2	train
458	AR6_WGI	159	2	The Pacific and Southern Ocean are projected to freshen and the Atlantic to become more saline	medium	1	train
459	AR6_WGI	159	3	Anthropogenic warming is very likely to further decrease ocean oxygen concentrations, and this deoxygenation is expected to persist for thousands of years	medium	1	train
460	AR6_WGI	159	4	Arctic sea ice losses are projected to continue, leading to a practically ice-free Arctic in September by the end of the 21st century under high CO 2 emissions scenarios	high	2	train
461	AR6_WGI	159	7	Global warming of 2°C above 1850–1900 levels would result in the exceedance of numerous hazard thresholds for pathogens, seagrasses, mangroves, kelp forests, rocky shores, coral reefs and other marine ecosystems	medium	1	train
462	AR6_WGI	159	16	These include biodiversity hot spots that will very likely see even more extreme heat and droughts, mountain areas where a projected raising in the freezing level height will alter snow and ice conditions (high confidence), and tropical forests that are increasingly prone to fire weather	medium	1	train
463	AR6_WGI	159	21	Extreme precipitation is projected to increase in major mountainous regions (medium to high confidence depending on location), with potential cascading consequences of floods, landslides and lake outbursts in all scenarios	medium	1	train
464	AR6_WGI	159	23	Water cycle changes bring prolonged drought, longer dry seasons and increased fire weather to many tropical forests	medium	1	train
465	AR6_WGI	160	2	With global warming, increasing relative sea level compounded by increasing tropical cyclone storm surge and rainfall intensity will increase the probability of coastal city flooding	high	2	train
466	AR6_WGI	160	3	Arctic coastal settlements are particularly exposed to climate change due to sea ice retreat	high	2	train
467	AR6_WGI	160	4	Improvements in urban climate modelling and climate monitoring networks have contributed to understanding the mutual interaction between regional and urban climate	high	2	test
468	AR6_WGI	160	7	Compared to present day, large implications are expected from the combination of future urban development and more frequent occurrence of extreme climate events, such as heatwaves, with more hot days and warm nights adding to heat stress in cities	very high	3	train
469	AR6_WGI	166	11	However, the NDCs submitted as of 2020 are insufficient to reduce greenhouse gas emissions enough to be consistent with trajectories limiting global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels	high	2	train
470	AR6_WGI	166	24	There was likely a net anthropogenic forcing of 0.0 –0.3 W m–2 in 1850 –1900 relative to 1750	medium	1	train
471	AR6_WGI	166	27	At the current level of global warming, an observed signal of temperature change relative to the 1850–1900 baseline has emerged above the levels of background variability over virtually all land regions	high	2	train
472	AR6_WGI	167	1	Accordingly, the signal of change is more apparent in tropical regions than in regions with greater warming but larger interannual variations	high	2	train
473	AR6_WGI	167	6	Scientific knowledge interacts with pre-existing conceptions of weather and climate, including values and beliefs stemming from ethnic or national identity, traditions, religion or lived relationships to land and sea	high	2	train
474	AR6_WGI	167	8	Social values may guide certain choices made during the construction, assessment and communication of information	high	2	train
475	AR6_WGI	167	13	In addition, paleoclimate archives such as mid-latitude and tropical glaciers, as well as modern natural archives used for calibration (e.g., corals and trees), are rapidly disappearing due to a host of pressures, including increasing temperatures	high	2	train
476	AR6_WGI	167	27	The broader availability of ensemble model simulations has contributed to better estimations of uncertainty in projections of future change	high	2	train
477	AR6_WGI	184	21	These diverse, more local understandings can both contrast with and enrich the planetary-scale analyses of global climate science	high	2	train
478	AR6_WGI	184	30	In summary, environmental and socio- altruistic values are the most significant influences on public opinion about climate change globally, while political views, political party affiliation, and corporate influence also had strong effects, especially in the USA	high	2	train
479	AR6_WGI	186	11	Statement of factCertain/factLikelihood outcome66% 90% Likely range Very likely rangeProbability LikelyVery likelyExtremely likelyCumulative probability 66%90%95% Examples of assessments Assessed evidence and agreement Past projections of global temperature and the pattern of warming are broadly consistent with subsequent observations (limited evidence, high agreement) {1.3.6}.Assessed confidence The probability of low-likelihood, high impact outcomes increases with higher global warming levels	high	2	train
480	AR6_WGI	186	15	The AR6 assessed best estimate is 3°C with a likely range of 2.5°C to 4°C	high	2	train
481	AR6_WGI	187	10	In summary, the calibrated language cannot entirely prevent misunderstandings, including a tendency to systematically underestimate the probability of the IPCC’s higher-likelihood conclusions and overestimate the probability of the lower-likelihood ones	high	2	train
482	AR6_WGI	188	26	These approaches are more effective when combined with other policies and tailored to the motivations, capabilities and resources of specific actors and contexts (high confidence).’ These extended dialogic co-production and education processes have thus been demonstrated to improve the quality of both scientific information and governance	high	2	train
483	AR6_WGI	189	17	We thus assess that specific characteristics of media coverage play a major role in climate understanding and perception	high	2	train
484	AR6_WGI	192	4	The AR5 WGI assessed that the pH of ocean surface water has decreased by 0.1 since the beginning of the industrial era	high	2	train
485	AR6_WGI	193	6	This thermal expansion, along with glacier mass loss, were the dominant contributors to GMSL rise during the 20th century	high	2	train
486	AR6_WGI	193	21	In summary, these data allowed AR5 WGI to assess that over the last two decades, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been losing mass, glaciers have continued to shrink almost worldwide, and Arctic sea ice and Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover have continued to decrease in extent	high	2	train
487	AR6_WGI	194	19	The AR5 WGI (IPCC, 2013b) used paleoclimatic evidence to put recent warming and sea level rise in a multi-century perspective and assessed that 1983–2012 was likely to have been the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years in the Northern Hemisphere	medium	1	train
488	AR6_WGI	194	20	The AR5 also assessed that the rate of sea level rise since the mid-19th century has been larger than the mean rate during the previous two millennia	high	2	train
489	AR6_WGI	197	2	Overall, AR5 assessed that total aerosol effects, including cloud adjustments, resulted in a negative RF of –0.9 [–1.9 to −0.1] W m−2 (medium confidence), offsetting a substantial portion of the positive RF resulting from the increase in GHGs	high	2	train
490	AR6_WGI	198	17	Similarly, over the period 1993–2010, when observations of all sea level components were available, AR5 WGI assessed the observed global mean sea level rise to be consistent with the sum of the observed contributions from ocean thermal expansion (due to warming) combined with changes in glaciers, the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, and land-water storage	high	2	train
491	AR6_WGI	198	27	In response, AR5 WGI made a specific assessment for how global surface temperature was projected to evolve over the next two decades, concluding that the change for the period 2016–2035 relative to 1986–2005 will likely be in the range of 0.3°C–0.7°C	medium	1	train
492	AR6_WGI	203	7	For the period 2006–2015, observed global mean surface temperature (GMST7) was 0.87°C ± 0.12°C higher than the average over the 1850–1900 period	very high	3	train
493	AR6_WGI	203	8	Anthropogenic global warming was estimated to be increasing at 0.2 ± 0.1°C per decade	high	2	train
494	AR6_WGI	203	10	This observed warming has already led to increases in the frequency and intensity of climate and weather extremes in many regions and seasons, including heat waves in most land regions (high confidence), increased droughts in some regions (medium confidence), and increases in the intensity of heavy precipitation events at the global scale	medium	1	train
495	AR6_WGI	203	11	These climate changes have contributed to desertification and land degradation in many regions	high	2	train
496	AR6_WGI	203	12	Increased urbanization can enhance warming in cities and their surroundings (heat island effect), especially during heat waves (high confidence), and intensify extreme rainfall	medium	1	train
497	AR6_WGI	203	15	Over the period 1982–2016, marine heatwaves have very likely doubled in frequency and are increasing in intensity	very high	3	test
498	AR6_WGI	203	16	In addition, the surface ocean acidified further (virtually certain) and loss of oxygen occurred from the surface to a depth of 1000 m	medium	1	train
499	AR6_WGI	203	23	Feedbacks from the loss of summer sea ice and spring snow cover on land have contributed to amplified warming in the Arctic	high	2	train

400

AR6_WGI

151

14

Increases in the frequency and/or the intensity of heavy rainfall have been observed in East and West Southern Africa, and the eastern Mediterranean region

medium

1

train

401

AR6_WGI

151

15

Increasing trends in river flood occurrence can be identified beyond 1980 in East and West Southern Africa (medium confidence) and Western Africa

high

2

train

402

AR6_WGI

151

17

Over West Africa, rainfall is projected to decrease in the western Sahel subregion and increase along the Guinea Coast subregion

medium

1

train

403

AR6_WGI

151

18

Rainfall is projected to increase over Eastern Africa

medium

1

train

404

AR6_WGI

151

20

Trends towards increased hydrological droughts have been observed in the Mediterranean (high confidence) and Western Africa

medium

1

train

405

AR6_WGI

151

21

These trends correspond with projected regional increases in aridity and fire weather conditions

high

2

train

406

AR6_WGI

151

23

Over Western Africa and Southern Africa, a future significant increase in wind speed and wind energy potential is projected

medium

1

train

407

AR6_WGI

151

24

There is a projected decrease in the frequency of tropical cyclones making landfall over Madagascar, East Southern Africa and East Africa

medium

1

train

408

AR6_WGI

154

1

Additional regional changes in Asia, besides those features described in Section TS.4.3.1, include historical trends of annual precipitation that show considerable regional differences

high

2

train

409

AR6_WGI

154

2

East Asian Monsoon precipitation has changed, with drying in the north and wetting in the south since the 1950s, and annual mean precipitation totals very likely have increased over most territories of North Asia since the mid-1970s

high

2

train

410

AR6_WGI

154

3

South Asian summer monsoon precipitation decreased over several areas since the mid-20th century

high

2

train

411

AR6_WGI

154

5

Aridity in East and West Central Asia is projected to increase, especially beyond the middle of the 21st century and global warming levels beyond 2°C

medium

1

train

412

AR6_WGI

154

6

Fire weather seasons are projected to lengthen and intensify everywhere except South East Asia, Tibetan Plateau and Arabian Peninsula

medium

1

train

413

AR6_WGI

154

7

Surface wind speeds have been decreasing in Asia

high

2

train

414

AR6_WGI

154

8

Over North Asia, increases in permafrost temperature and its thawing have been observed over recent decades

high

2

train

415

AR6_WGI

154

9

Future projections indicate continuing decline in seasonal snow duration, glacial mass, and permafrost area by mid-century

high

2

test

416

AR6_WGI

154

10

Snow-covered areas and snow volumes will decrease in most regions of the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) during the 21st century, and snowline elevations will rise

high

2

train

417

AR6_WGI

154

11

Heavy snowfall is increasing in East Asia and North Asia

medium

1

train

418

AR6_WGI

154

16

Daily precipitation extremes have increased over part of the region

high

2

train

419

AR6_WGI

154

17

Extreme hydrological drought frequency has increased in a region extending from south-west to north-east China, with projected increases of agricultural and ecological drought for 4°C GWL and fire weather for 2°C and above

medium

1

test

420

AR6_WGI

154

19

Concurrently, total soil moisture is projected to decline extensively

medium

1

train

421

AR6_WGI

154

21

The frequency of heavy precipitation and flood events has increased over several areas during the last few decades

medium

1

train

422

AR6_WGI

154

23

Most of the region has experienced an increase in rainfall intensity but with a reduced number of wet days

medium

1

train

423

AR6_WGI

154

24

Rainfall is projected to increase in the northern parts of South East Asia and decrease in areas in the Maritime Continent

medium

1

train

424

AR6_WGI

155

1

Since the mid 1980’s, there has been an increase in the number and intensification rate of intense TCs (medium confidence), with a significant north-westward shift in tracks and a northward shift in their average latitude, increasing exposure over East China, the Korean Peninsula and the Japanese Archipelago

medium

1

train

425

AR6_WGI

155

5

Heavy snowfall is projected to occur more frequently in some parts of Japan

medium

1

train

426

AR6_WGI

155

9

More than 60% of glacier mass in the Caucasus is projected to disappear under RCP8.5 emissions by the end of the 21st century

medium

1

train

427

AR6_WGI

155

13

This will contribute to more frequent coastal flooding and higher ETWL in low-lying areas and coastal erosion along sandy beaches

high

2

train

428

AR6_WGI

155

16

Agricultural and ecological droughts and hydrological droughts have increased over Southern Australia (medium confidence), and meteorological droughts have decreased over Northern and Central Australia

medium

1

train

429

AR6_WGI

155

17

Relative sea level has increased over the period 1993–2018 at a rate higher than GMSL around Australasia

high

2

train

430

AR6_WGI

155

20

Agricultural and ecological droughts are projected to increase in Southern and Eastern Australia

medium

1

train

431

AR6_WGI

155

21

Fire weather is projected to increase throughout Australia (high confidence) and New Zealand

medium

1

train

432

AR6_WGI

155

22

Snowfall is expected to decrease throughout the region at high altitudes in both Australia (high confidence) and New Zealand (medium confidence), with glaciers receding in New Zealand

high

2

train

433

AR6_WGI

155

26

Annual mean precipitation is projected to increase in the south and west of New Zealand (medium confidence) and is projected to decrease in south-west Southern Australia (high confidence), Eastern Australia (medium confidence), and in the north and east of New Zealand

medium

1

train

434

AR6_WGI

155

28

Aridity is projected to increase with medium confidence in Southern Australia (high confidence in south-west Southern Australia), Eastern Australia (medium confidence) and in the north and east of New Zealand

medium

1

train

435

AR6_WGI

156

1

TCs in north-eastern and north Australia are projected to decrease in number (high confidence) but increase in intensity except for ‘east coast lows’

low

0

train

436

AR6_WGI

156

6

The present day 1-in-100-year ETWL is between 0.5–2.5 m around most of Australia, except the north-western coast where 1-in-100-year ETWL can be as high as 6–7 m. {Box 9.1, 12.3.1.5, 12.4.3.5} TS.4.3.2.4 Central and South America Additional regional changes in Central and South America, besides those features described in Section TS.4.3.1, include increases in mean and extreme precipitation in South- Eastern South America since the 1960s

high

2

train

437

AR6_WGI

156

7

Decreasing trends in mean precipitation and increasing trends in agricultural and ecological drought are observed over North-Eastern South America

medium

1

train

438

AR6_WGI

156

8

The intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation and pluvial floods is projected to increase over South-Eastern South America, Southern South America, Northern South America, South American Monsoon and North-Eastern South America

medium

1

train

439

AR6_WGI

156

9

Increases of agricultural and ecological drought are projected in South America Monsoon and Southern South America, and fire weather is projected to increase over several regions (Northern South America, the South American Monsoon, North-Eastern South America and South-Western South America)

high

2

train

440

AR6_WGI

156

21

Increased mean precipitation amounts at high latitudes in boreal winter and reduced summer precipitation in southern Europe are projected starting from a 2°C GWL

high

2

train

441

AR6_WGI

156

22

Aridity, agricultural and hydrological droughts and fire weather conditions will increase in the Mediterranean region starting from 2°C GWL

high

2

train

442

AR6_WGI

156

23

Pluvial flooding will increase everywhere with high confidence except for medium confidence in the Mediterranean; in Western and Central Europe this also applies to river flooding starting from a 2°C GWL

high

2

train

443

AR6_WGI

156

24

Most periglacial processes in Northern Europe are projected to disappear by the end of the 21st century, even for a low warming scenario

medium

1

train

444

AR6_WGI

157

3

In the European Mediterranean, the magnitude and sign of observed land precipitation trends depend on time period and exact study region

medium

1

train

445

AR6_WGI

157

7

The frequency of Medicanes (tropical-like cyclones in the Mediterranean) is projected to decrease

medium

1

train

446

AR6_WGI

157

16

Severe wind storms, tropical cyclones and dust storms in North America are shifting toward more extreme characteristics (medium confidence), and both observations and projections point to strong changes in the seasonal and geographic range of snow and ice conditions in the coming decades

very high

3

train

447

AR6_WGI

157

24

Mean wind speed and wind power potential are projected to decrease in Western North America

high

2

train

448

AR6_WGI

157

26

At sustained GWLs between 3°C and 5°C, nearly all glacial mass in Western Canada and Western North America will disappear

medium

1

train

449

AR6_WGI

158

4

Fewer but more intense tropical cyclones are projected starting from a 2°C GWL

medium

1

train

450

AR6_WGI

158

8

Higher evapotranspiration under a warming climate can partially offset future increases or amplify future reductions in rainfall, resulting in increased aridity as well as more severe agricultural and ecological drought in the Caribbean

medium

1

train

451

AR6_WGI

158

11

Shoreline retreat is projected along sandy coasts of most small islands

high

2

train

452

AR6_WGI

158

13

An intensification of the polar water cycle will increase mean precipitation, with precipitation intensity becoming stronger and more likely to be rainfall rather than snowfall

high

2

train

453

AR6_WGI

158

14

Permafrost warming, loss of seasonal snow cover, and glacier melt will be widespread

high

2

train

454

AR6_WGI

158

16

Relative sea level and coastal flooding are projected to increase in areas other than regions with substantial land uplift

medium

1

train

455

AR6_WGI

158

23

In the Arctic, this will result in higher river flood potential and earlier meltwater flooding, altering seasonal characteristics of flooding

high

2

train

456

AR6_WGI

158

24

A lengthening of the fire season (medium confidence) and encroachment of fire regimes into tundra regions

high

2

train

457

AR6_WGI

158

27

Permafrost warming and thawing have been widespread in the Arctic since the 1980s

high

2

train

458

AR6_WGI

159

2

The Pacific and Southern Ocean are projected to freshen and the Atlantic to become more saline

medium

1

train

459

AR6_WGI

159

3

Anthropogenic warming is very likely to further decrease ocean oxygen concentrations, and this deoxygenation is expected to persist for thousands of years

medium

1

train

460

AR6_WGI

159

4

Arctic sea ice losses are projected to continue, leading to a practically ice-free Arctic in September by the end of the 21st century under high CO 2 emissions scenarios

high

2

train

461

AR6_WGI

159

7

Global warming of 2°C above 1850–1900 levels would result in the exceedance of numerous hazard thresholds for pathogens, seagrasses, mangroves, kelp forests, rocky shores, coral reefs and other marine ecosystems

medium

1

train

462

AR6_WGI

159

16

These include biodiversity hot spots that will very likely see even more extreme heat and droughts, mountain areas where a projected raising in the freezing level height will alter snow and ice conditions (high confidence), and tropical forests that are increasingly prone to fire weather

medium

1

train

463

AR6_WGI

159

21

Extreme precipitation is projected to increase in major mountainous regions (medium to high confidence depending on location), with potential cascading consequences of floods, landslides and lake outbursts in all scenarios

medium

1

train

464

AR6_WGI

159

23

Water cycle changes bring prolonged drought, longer dry seasons and increased fire weather to many tropical forests

medium

1

train

465

AR6_WGI

160

2

With global warming, increasing relative sea level compounded by increasing tropical cyclone storm surge and rainfall intensity will increase the probability of coastal city flooding

high

2

train

466

AR6_WGI

160

3

Arctic coastal settlements are particularly exposed to climate change due to sea ice retreat

high

2

train

467

AR6_WGI

160

4

Improvements in urban climate modelling and climate monitoring networks have contributed to understanding the mutual interaction between regional and urban climate

high

2

test

468

AR6_WGI

160

7

Compared to present day, large implications are expected from the combination of future urban development and more frequent occurrence of extreme climate events, such as heatwaves, with more hot days and warm nights adding to heat stress in cities

very high

3

train

469

AR6_WGI

166

11

However, the NDCs submitted as of 2020 are insufficient to reduce greenhouse gas emissions enough to be consistent with trajectories limiting global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels

high

2

train

470

AR6_WGI

166

24

There was likely a net anthropogenic forcing of 0.0 –0.3 W m–2 in 1850 –1900 relative to 1750

medium

1

train

471

AR6_WGI

166

27

At the current level of global warming, an observed signal of temperature change relative to the 1850–1900 baseline has emerged above the levels of background variability over virtually all land regions

high

2

train

472

AR6_WGI

167

1

Accordingly, the signal of change is more apparent in tropical regions than in regions with greater warming but larger interannual variations

high

2

train

473

AR6_WGI

167

6

Scientific knowledge interacts with pre-existing conceptions of weather and climate, including values and beliefs stemming from ethnic or national identity, traditions, religion or lived relationships to land and sea

high

2

train

474

AR6_WGI

167

8

Social values may guide certain choices made during the construction, assessment and communication of information

high

2

train

475

AR6_WGI

167

13

In addition, paleoclimate archives such as mid-latitude and tropical glaciers, as well as modern natural archives used for calibration (e.g., corals and trees), are rapidly disappearing due to a host of pressures, including increasing temperatures

high

2

train

476

AR6_WGI

167

27

The broader availability of ensemble model simulations has contributed to better estimations of uncertainty in projections of future change

high

2

train

477

AR6_WGI

184

21

These diverse, more local understandings can both contrast with and enrich the planetary-scale analyses of global climate science

high

2

train

478

AR6_WGI

184

30

In summary, environmental and socio- altruistic values are the most significant influences on public opinion about climate change globally, while political views, political party affiliation, and corporate influence also had strong effects, especially in the USA

high

2

train

479

AR6_WGI

186

11

Statement of factCertain/factLikelihood outcome66% 90% Likely range Very likely rangeProbability LikelyVery likelyExtremely likelyCumulative probability 66%90%95% Examples of assessments Assessed evidence and agreement Past projections of global temperature and the pattern of warming are broadly consistent with subsequent observations (limited evidence, high agreement) {1.3.6}.Assessed confidence The probability of low-likelihood, high impact outcomes increases with higher global warming levels

high

2

train

480

AR6_WGI

186

15

The AR6 assessed best estimate is 3°C with a likely range of 2.5°C to 4°C

high

2

train

481

AR6_WGI

187

10

In summary, the calibrated language cannot entirely prevent misunderstandings, including a tendency to systematically underestimate the probability of the IPCC’s higher-likelihood conclusions and overestimate the probability of the lower-likelihood ones

high

2

train

482

AR6_WGI

188

26

These approaches are more effective when combined with other policies and tailored to the motivations, capabilities and resources of specific actors and contexts (high confidence).’ These extended dialogic co-production and education processes have thus been demonstrated to improve the quality of both scientific information and governance

high

2

train

483

AR6_WGI

189

17

We thus assess that specific characteristics of media coverage play a major role in climate understanding and perception

high

2

train

484

AR6_WGI

192

4

The AR5 WGI assessed that the pH of ocean surface water has decreased by 0.1 since the beginning of the industrial era

high

2

train

485

AR6_WGI

193

6

This thermal expansion, along with glacier mass loss, were the dominant contributors to GMSL rise during the 20th century

high

2

train

486

AR6_WGI

193

21

In summary, these data allowed AR5 WGI to assess that over the last two decades, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been losing mass, glaciers have continued to shrink almost worldwide, and Arctic sea ice and Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover have continued to decrease in extent

high

2

train

487

AR6_WGI

194

19

The AR5 WGI (IPCC, 2013b) used paleoclimatic evidence to put recent warming and sea level rise in a multi-century perspective and assessed that 1983–2012 was likely to have been the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years in the Northern Hemisphere

medium

1

train

488

AR6_WGI

194

20

The AR5 also assessed that the rate of sea level rise since the mid-19th century has been larger than the mean rate during the previous two millennia

high

2

train

489

AR6_WGI

197

2

Overall, AR5 assessed that total aerosol effects, including cloud adjustments, resulted in a negative RF of –0.9 [–1.9 to −0.1] W m−2 (medium confidence), offsetting a substantial portion of the positive RF resulting from the increase in GHGs

high

2

train

490

AR6_WGI

198

17

Similarly, over the period 1993–2010, when observations of all sea level components were available, AR5 WGI assessed the observed global mean sea level rise to be consistent with the sum of the observed contributions from ocean thermal expansion (due to warming) combined with changes in glaciers, the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, and land-water storage

high

2

train

491

AR6_WGI

198

27

In response, AR5 WGI made a specific assessment for how global surface temperature was projected to evolve over the next two decades, concluding that the change for the period 2016–2035 relative to 1986–2005 will likely be in the range of 0.3°C–0.7°C

medium

1

train

492

AR6_WGI

203

7

For the period 2006–2015, observed global mean surface temperature (GMST7) was 0.87°C ± 0.12°C higher than the average over the 1850–1900 period

very high

3

train

493

AR6_WGI

203

8

Anthropogenic global warming was estimated to be increasing at 0.2 ± 0.1°C per decade

high

2

train

494

AR6_WGI

203

10

This observed warming has already led to increases in the frequency and intensity of climate and weather extremes in many regions and seasons, including heat waves in most land regions (high confidence), increased droughts in some regions (medium confidence), and increases in the intensity of heavy precipitation events at the global scale

medium

1

train

495

AR6_WGI

203

11

These climate changes have contributed to desertification and land degradation in many regions

high

2

train

496

AR6_WGI

203

12

Increased urbanization can enhance warming in cities and their surroundings (heat island effect), especially during heat waves (high confidence), and intensify extreme rainfall

medium

1

train

497

AR6_WGI

203

15

Over the period 1982–2016, marine heatwaves have very likely doubled in frequency and are increasing in intensity

very high

3

test

498

AR6_WGI

203

16

In addition, the surface ocean acidified further (virtually certain) and loss of oxygen occurred from the surface to a depth of 1000 m

medium

1

train

499

AR6_WGI

203

23

Feedbacks from the loss of summer sea ice and spring snow cover on land have contributed to amplified warming in the Arctic

high

2

train