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In the early 2000s, the Government took a decision to effectively privatise a large portion of the foreign exchange reserves through the establishment of a defined contribution pension fund scheme for the public service. Despite its openness, the impact of the global financial crisis on the Botswana economy was relatively mild.
This will include working tirelessly to support Government actions and programmes, coordinated by the Financial Intelligence Agency, in continuing to build a robust and sustainable Anti-Money Laundering and the Combating of the Financing of Terrorism architecture for this country.
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It increases the productivity of the workforce as it constitutes an efficient means of deferred remuneration and, finally, it increases the total investments in the country by being an alternative to banks, but very efficient, way of financing the real economy. Occupational pension funds (or else called IORPs) were introduced in Greece by Law 3029/2002.
Unfortunately, the current legislation does not include the subtle, but very important, distinctions of the different components of an effective occupational pension system: that of a pension institution, a pension fund, a pension scheme and the entity that operates the funds.
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While there are many of you who will continue to be on the big loan origination side, a number of you can find value in generating economic activity through retail banking. Still a number of you will be able to find a niche in providing alternative digital solutions.
In doing so, there is a need to be mindful that using financial technology could lead to new and unanticipated financial, business, consumer protection risks as well as cybersecurity risks. This is why, even as we encourage technology solutions, we also admonish banks to do so with caution and without sacrificing financial stability and the protection of your ultimate customer, the consumer.
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Thus, fiscal consolidation must be 4 BIS Review 58/2010 undertaken together with a systematic effort to recover the losses in competitiveness, by setting specific quantitative targets each year. Further, under the present circumstances, Greece’s growth model cannot be based on consumption, public and/or private, as unfortunately was the case in the past. Instead, it must rely on investment and exports.
Greece, one of the most closed economies in Europe, must now become more open. This, however, will be impossible, unless competitiveness is effectively restored, through bold structural changes.
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Last week’s report on labor-market conditions in December was disappointing, as it showed an increase of 0.3 percentage point in the unemployment rate and a decline in private payroll employment.
I extend a warm welcome to the representatives from the Bank of Thailand. After this meeting, they will be visiting our office in Mumbai to study in detail the working of the ACU mechanism and its utility for the member countries. I earnestly hope that they will be convinced about the benefits of membership of the ACU.
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Banks in countries under stress have, in particular, been investing in relatively risky government bonds, using cheap short-term funding, hoping to pocket the spread between the bond return and the cost of funding on the upside.10 This phenomenon shares unsavoury features with the behaviour of banks during Japan’s lost decade.
In Japan, bank portfolios were rebalanced away from lending to creditworthy firms because regulatory requirements incentivised banks to keep lending to non-viable firms in order not to recognise credit losses. In the euro area, bank portfolios may have been rebalanced away from lending to creditworthy firms because high yields have incentivised banks to undertake long sovereign bond positions.
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It is up to 1 David Dodge, "Financial System Efficiency: A Canadian Imperative," (Bank of Canada, 2004). 2 David Dodge, "Economic and Financial Efficiency: The Importance of Pension Plans," (Bank of Canada, 2005). 2 BIS Review 147/2007 the responsible authorities to act on these research findings, and to move these issues forward.
And I can tell you, the Monetary Board and the rest of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas family remain confident that our banking system can work through these challenges. I assure you, this is not meant to be a self-acclamation. Rather, it is our tribute to the collective efforts we have invested in our shared future.
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Savings and loans companies, like other deposittaking institutions, exist to intermediate savings in order that businesses and other economic actors can obtain access to much-needed funds to meet their legitimate needs. Savings and loans companies are therefore a major enabler 1 of sustainable businesses and must understand how this role, if well played, can provide a boost for overall socio-economic growth and development.
What is more, I need not remind you that savings and loans companies are themselves businesses and must therefore be sustainable in order to be able to support their customers and the entire economy.
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While the central bank is among the more credible institutions when it comes to taking a macroeconomic view-focusing on aggregated data like GDP [gross domestic product], price index, and capital formation at the national level-one must never forget to look at regional-level data. For instance, the issue of elevated food prices is actually more pronounced in some regions than in others.
Last observation: 2016 Chart 2: Chart 2: Rates of entrepreneurship have declined in all regions Rates of entrepreneurship by region, annual data % 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 Canada 1981 Quebec Ontario Atlantic region 1990 Source: Bank of Canada calculations using data from Statistics Canada's Labour Force Survey Prairie region British Columbia 2000 2014 Last observation: 2014 The main concern about a loss of dynamism is that it will lead to less innovation and diminishing long-term growth.
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All these came on the back of a whole-of-government approach to pandemic recovery. Complementing the national government’s recovery efforts, the central bank implemented its own COVID-response measures. We ensured adequate liquidity in the financial system and helped bolster domestic economic activity. Through our various response measures, the central bank has injected approximately 41.9 billion US dollars into the financial system.
This is not only a confirmation of the economic progress and the results we have achieved, but also a contribution to the further improvement of financing and investment conditions in Serbia, and a continued rise in employment and our citizens’ living standard.
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I would like to conclude with this ideas and l look forward to discussing with you the potential in and for Frankfurt as a financial centre for renminbi, and perhaps at the end of our discussion, we will be able to answer the question together as to what opportunities this may hold for Frankfurt. Thank you very much for your attention.
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Yet, a number of studies have been conducted. The investigations have shown these costs to be manageable, not least due to the lengthy transition phase that will attenuate the adaptation process. Even the distinctive features of the tripartite German financial system have been taken into due consideration. The sector’s profitability will probably decrease, yet so will fluctuations, thereby supporting continuous growth.
Impacts on cost of credit and thus on the real economy will, however, be limited. Fears of dire BIS Review 151/2010 1 consequences therefore appear exaggerated, and banks should instead embark on the task of adjusting to the new requirements at an early stage. However, the increased risk buffer in the shape of higher capital requirements is no panacea.
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Even so, there is still not much doubt about which country, among this group, has had the most consistent performance. Of course these data are already somewhat dated. We can ask what has been happening more recently. The answer is that growth is continuing.
Most survey indications are that business conditions have improved a little, and that household sentiment has recovered a fair bit of the fall seen in April and May. Those measures are close to average. We have seen the unemployment rate print higher in July, after several months where it had not changed much.
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These debt markets appear to work well, although borrowing locally means paying rates that have traditionally been higher than in other OECD countries, even Australia. The New Zealand rates contain a premium that reflects exchange risk and the liquidity risk that is inherent in a small remote market such as New Zealand.
Compared with other comparable countries, the corporate bond market is a very thin one in New Zealand. (There are, of course, a very large number of global bonds denominated in $ but most of these are Eurokiwis or Uridashis, whereby foreigners effectively provide finance for lending into the New Zealand household market.)
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The default rate is rising mostly among the smaller and medium-sized banche popolari and those located in the South. 4 BIS Review 40/2009 It is hard to compare the technical situation of cooperative banks in Italy and in the other European countries where they play a significant role, as the data are scanty and lacking in uniformity.
Table 6 gives some figures; all in all, there does not appear to be any great difference between the state of Italian and other European cooperative banks. Some liquidity problems emerged in conjunction with the tensions in the interbank market.
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8 Surveys in the US show that homeowners believe their neighbourhoods are safer and better places to raise children. 9 But while the benefits of owner-occupancy are well documented, there is a much less wellknown flipside to this coin: the risks associated with financially vulnerable households taking on the financial burden of house purchase. Let me now discuss this issue.
In Ireland the burden of the current crisis has fallen squarely on the young, many of whom bought property at the top of the market.
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I attribute that relatively good record, in no small part, to greater diversification of risk, to the growing sophistication of risk management techniques being applied at more and more institutions, and to stronger capital positions going into the period of stress.
Your Excellency it gives me great pleasure to present you with our Irish € coin and your Croatian 150 Kuna coin together in this presentation box. BIS Review 14/2007 1
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It calculates the proportion of long-term assets, which need to be funded by longer term stable funding. While the LCR stresses the liquidity situation up to 30 days, the NSFR focuses on the situation beyond one year. Assets which are liquid for more than 30 days and less than one year are not taken into account, not even on a weighted basis.
However, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) has recognized this shortcoming and is investigating the issue. In addition, there is the risk that the reformed banking regulation has damaging impact on the European model. The treatment of covered bonds, mutual funds, deposits etc. in the liquidity ratios affect the business model oft many continental European banks.
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Let us capitalize on each other's knowledge and cooperate so that we can have a financially inclusive ASEAN for the benefit of all our people. Thank you very much for your attention. Maraming salamat. 4/4 BIS - Central bankers' speeches
4 Servicers, too, turned out to have interests that were not always aligned with investors, and different tranches of investors themselves had competing interests that they tried to impose onto servicers. Certainly, greater clarity about roles and responsibilities, and the associated compensation of participants in the origination chain, will help all parties understand, and properly align, incentives.
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Second, it has been achieved against a backdrop of low inflation in the economies of Greece’s trading partners, a situation that makes it difficult to attain improvements in competitiveness. Consequently, in a matter of several years Greece has been able to transform its enormous external and primary fiscal deficits into surpluses – a remarkable achievement.
The banking sector Let me now turn to the restructuring of the Greek banking system. It has been enormous. With the deepening of the crisis, the Bank of Greece stepped in to preserve banking system stability. Our efforts focused on two fronts: • Preserving banking system liquidity, and • Restoring capital adequacy.
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It seems to me that it is not a problem for the citizens at large, especially for the less wealthy, that fiscal problems are not solved through the inflation tax or by keeping the rate of interest on public debt instruments artificially low.
The risk to systemic stability required intervention by the authorities that was unprecedented both in its extent and in its form. It is important to recall that we have very limited knowledge of many aspects of the crisis. All financial crises share certain phases of market behaviour, but they are all different.
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The Federal Reserve has found that there is an important synergy gained by integrating the safety and soundness and BSA/AML supervisory processes. Enforcement actions The Federal Reserve focuses significant resources on the prevention and early resolution of deficiencies within the supervisory framework. When problems are identified at a banking organization, they are typically communicated to the management and directors in a written report.
The management and directors are requested to address identified problems voluntarily and to take measures to ensure that the problems are corrected and will not recur. Most problems are resolved promptly after they are brought to the attention of a banking organization’s management and directors.
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The solutions that financial markets currently offer cannot effectively address these risks: they should be integrated with collective arrangements involving present and future generations. I believe that it is worth exploring whether such arrangements could take the form of transparent, minimal guarantees provided by the government to pension funds and to annuity providers at prices and with other conditions that compensate the risks.
Real exports, despite monthly fluctuations, have been gaining upward momentum from developments in foreign exchange rates and a moderate recovery in the U.S. economy. In particular, those of motor vehicles and related goods as well as of capital goods and parts have recently been moving toward a pick-up. Industrial production is also increasing moderately, reflecting these developments in demand both at home and abroad.
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And what should be done with hedge funds that oppose stronger disclosure rules? Trichet: You know that we have 67 recommendations that were made public by the Financial Stability Forum and approved by the G7 and the international community. We are not at a level at which we are still exchanging ideas. We have come to an agreement.
Therefore I argued in a number of speeches last year that it is important that the Islamic financial industry learns lessons from the crisis and that it amends its business practices accordingly. Recent developments have provided more support for this conclusion. In the past twelve months we have seen the first defaults by issuers of Sukuk.
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It is therefore important to accelerate the process of adopting regulations from other advanced economies, unless there are significant reasons to avoid this in individual cases. This will help to both ease the regulatory burden and to increase international competition in the economy.
In addition, in order to streamline bureaucratic processes, we suggest setting targets in public sector wage agreements for the adoption of digital processes in government services to the business sector. The current fiscal situation is weighing down on the ability to finance the required investment.
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The relatively large capital inflows made it possible to tolerate a deterioration in the current account of the balance of payments -- from forced surpluses in the first, to continuous deficits in the second period, reflecting a substantial increase in total domestic expenditure at a rate that outpaced the rate of growth in gross domestic product.
EU registration must not lead to “rubber-stamped in Brussels” being interpreted as a seal of quality for individual ratings. Third, an EU registration procedure would have to be decentralised in structure; in particular, no new authority should be created. The Basel II authorisation procedure is a good reference point in this respect.
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If you adjust for the percentage of the population in the traded-goods sector, however, the effective global labour supply quadrupled between 1980 and 2005, with most of the increase taking place after 1990. 4 This trend is set to continue: The globally integrated labour force is projected to double again by 2050.
My starting point would be that the Federal Open Market Committee did what it thought was appropriate ex ante to return the economy to full employment and stable prices, taking Treasury decisions concerning debt management as exogenous.
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MSMEs are an important engine of growth for the Indian economy as they contribute around 45% of exports and provide employment opportunities to more than 11.1 crore people. The provision of appropriate credit for MSMEs through seamless and digital cash-flow based lending will provide them with the much-needed impetus.
It would enable lenders to leverage real time cashflow data to reimagine end-to-end lending process and “sachetisation” of products.
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We are seeing accelerated completions of key infrastructure projects: toll road, airports, energy, irrigation, and more. Our macroprudential relaxation and monetary easing will also provide supports for higher economic growth. Let me provide our latest economic outlook for this year and next year. On economic growth. Last year, we recorded an economic growth of 4.79%.
With the fiscal stimulus, the economic growth reached the bottom of 4.66% in the second quarter of last year and picked up to 5.04% in the last quarter. Investment in construction related to government projects together with private and government consumptions support the recovery. This year will be much better.
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Newly established financial support system in the Euro Area It will be recalled that the Greek sovereign debt crisis had a contagious effect on other peripheral countries such as Ireland and Portugal.
Social responsibility of consumer-focused credit activities As the core business of credit reporting involves the flow of information through a network of stakeholders, credit reporting activities touch upon sensitive issues, such as the privacy rights of consumers as well as their protection and security.
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So how will Lietuvos bankas – or generally speaking, a central bank – look a hundred years from today? Central banks were always data-dependent in their decision-making. But nowadays – and going forward – it no longer suffices just to have a hypothesis and validate it with data. Banks must become data-driven and adept at data wrangling in order to generate useful insights.
A lesson we central banks learned from the crises of the recent decades is that we don't know enough, but those who are performing the best are always the ones who know the most.
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For instance, the Bank of Canada and Riksbanken have done so recently, and the Federal Reserve System has just launched one. The Fed review was announced to be wide-ranging, without prejudging where it will lead.
As a result, brokers, analysts and investment bankers abused the standard. The upward movement of stock prices immediately inflated balance sheets which, in turn, further inflated the asset price and, when the economic downturn set in, the bubble eventually burst.
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Another important FSB workstream focuses on re-hypothecation and re-use of securities in the repo market which create chains of inside liquidity that enhance the “illusion of liquidity” that tends to disappear in times of stress. I would encourage further work in order to fully assess the effects of these tools and how best to apply them in practice.
Capital Markets Union and Monetary Union A last element of the European response to the recent challenges that I would like to touch upon today is the Capital Markets Union project, recently launched by the European Commission. It is a very important initiative, in particular for the countries participating in the Monetary Union.
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Yet even as the world economy recovers, we all have learned that our economies are increasingly intertwined, and therefore, I believe these GIC programs will remain relevant and valuable in the years to come.
Academic research on the drivers of long-run growth shows that well-functioning institutions, high regulatory quality and good governance matter for economic growth and enable countries to over-perform in the long run2. This is because institutions and regulatory quality affect incentives for people and businesses to invest in physical and human capital, technology and the organization of production.
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To boost the credit to agriculture sector, apart from a host of initiatives, the Kisan Credit Card (KCC) Scheme was introduced in the year 1998–99 to enable farmers to purchase agricultural inputs and draw cash for their production needs.
In 2004, NABARD revised the Model KCC Scheme to provide adequate and timely finance for meeting the comprehensive credit requirements of farmers under single window, with flexible and simplified procedure, adopting whole farm approach. The scheme now covers term credit as also working capital for agriculture and allied activities and a reasonable component for consumption needs.
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One of the major developments in recent years is the introduction of exchange traded currency futures and options, which have registered significant growth in volumes since their introduction. The increase in the currency futures volume, in a sense, is expected, in view of cash settlement, no requirement of underlying exposure and absence of any restriction on cancellation and re-booking.
I know from the experience of my own country, where I was closely involved in decision-making at the time, that it is extraordinarily difficult to make changes in an exchange rate peg that has come to symbolise an overall macro-economic strategy. I also know that the penalties for not making an adjustment in time are severe.
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Lastly, as for the third point, the relationship between monetary policy and prices is no longer straightforward, as seen, for example, in an improvement in labor productivity accompanying labor-saving investment constraining inflation. As a result, uncertainty in this context is likely to remain high.
Moreover, time is required to resolve operational issues, such as the development and testing of required software for both the central counterparty and the participants, and issues associated with the interaction between new software and existing systems. The launch of the first phase of the service therefore represents a major step. But much remains to be done. Delivery will take place in three phases.
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Since then, government bond yields in different euro area countries have been driven mainly by euro area-wide factors and news. Naturally, one should not expect common factors to fully explain changes in bond yields, as different assessments concerning credit and liquidity risk will continue to have an impact on bond yields in different countries. The euro corporate bond market has grown considerably since 1999.
While this market had been predominantly open to the highest quality credits, it has since broadened to facilitate the funding needs of riskier issuers.
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Concluding remarks Let me conclude by once again extending, on behalf of FMD and the SARB, our appreciation to all market participants for your continued support and cooperation, which has aided the orderly functioning of our markets.
Public Lecture by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, At the University of South Africa, Pretoria 24 July 2019 Delivering on our mandate: Monetary policy, inflation, and balanced and sustainable growth Good morning, ladies and gentlemen.
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According to the 7% growth rate target for 2004 set by the Central Committee, and considering that money supply growth and new lending in 2004 should be lower than those in previous year due to the time lag of excessive credit growth in 2003, we decided on the aforementioned monetary policy targets.
With appropriate macroeconomic adjustment and regulation, the CPI in year 2004 is expected to be kept at around 3%. To be more specific, hangover effect may contribute 2.2 pp to CPI, new inflation factors and price adjustment policies contribute 1 pp. Combined with other non-quantifiable upward price pressure, the CPI growth rate could maintain at around 3% if macroeconomic adjustment measures gradually take effect.
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On that note, compensation or remuneration structure of bank executives conducive to the development of professionalism and integration is needed. Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, 88. In addition to the policy direction I have described, we must also formulate medium to long term strategies.
My view is that capital accumulation, both in the form of physical and human capital, and productivity improvement is key to boosting a balanced aggregate supply and aggregate demand. It is hoped that this ideal condition will lead to higher GDP and lower inflation which will in turn be followed with an increase in GDP per capita. 89.
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Nils Bernstein: Developments in the world economy, the Danish economy and in its mortgage credit system Speech by Mr Nils Bernstein, Governor of the National Bank of Denmark, at the annual meeting of the Danish Mortgage Banks, Copenhagen, 26 September 2012.
Yes, it will be some time before low inflation and the low key policy rate have their full impact on the cost of debt. But it will definitely happen. Of course, if creditors’ rights were better protected, it would happen sooner, but this is beyond the NBU’s purview.
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Aadhaar Enabled Payment Systems are gaining currency and the recent launch of ‘BHIM’ app for facilitating payments is another welcome move. While increasing adoption of digital payment technology would bring in several benefits to the economy, we need to be conscious of security aspects as well. Given this backdrop, let us look at some of the developments internationally. 5.
In October 2016, G-7 countries came out with what is called as ‘Fundamental Elements of 1/5 BIS central bankers' speeches Cyber Security for the Financial Sector’, which covers cybersecurity strategy and framework, governance, risk and control assessment, monitoring, response, recovery, information sharing and continuous learning as key elements.
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Thank you for your attention. I am looking forward to your comments. BIS Review 120/2009 3
To mitigate risks associated with high vulnerability to textile sector both at industry and export level, Pakistan is launching further efforts to encourage greater export diversification. Broadening and deepening of financial markets Pakistan banking industry is characterized as the most vibrant, healthy and well regulated.
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Philip R Lane: SMEs and the macro-financial environment Address by Mr Philip R Lane, Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland, at the Irish Small and Medium Enterprises Association Annual Conference 2016, Royal Dublin Society, Dublin, 11 November 2016. * * * The views expressed are personal and do not reflect the views of the Eurosystem or Governing Council.
I thank Bernie Mooney, James Carroll, Fergal McCann and Conor O’Toole for their inputs into this speech. Introduction Good afternoon. I would like to thank ISME for inviting me to address your annual conference. The theme “Challenging Times – New Opportunities” is certainly timely, especially as Ireland adapts to the implications of Brexit in the coming months and years.
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Rethinking the definition of price stability Consider first the ECB’s definition of price stability as inflation rates of “below, but close to, 2%”. A simple answer to the current challenges would be to lower the inflation aim. If my dissection of the current inflation drivers is vaguely on the right track, then it is clear that this strategy would be wrong on many levels.
On the other hand, it would not be desirable for the converse to occur, namely for market participants’ practices to fall short of the principles described in the Code. That said, I think it is good outcome of the process that we were able to distil the points of contention down to a small number of (not insignificant) issues.
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So I want to thank the Global Interdependence Center and the Bank of Finland for their hospitality and the opportunity to participate in this conference. It is also a pleasure to join my central bank colleagues from France, Sweden, and, of course, Finland at such an event. The theme of this session, central bank policy after the crisis, is both timely and extremely important.
2 See Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, and Securities and Exchange Commission (2013), "Agencies Issue Final Rules Implementing the Volcker Rule," joint press release, December 10. BIS central bankers’ speeches 3
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Given the enormous rise in public deficits and the strain this will put on future budgets, the fiscal exit strategy will have to kick in as soon as the recovery has firmed up, which means no later than 2011. Reigning in deficits will require significant improvements in the structural balance ratio.
Furthermore, steady disinflation in 2023 will be facilitated by: well-coordinated fiscal and monetary policies complete cessation of monetary financing of the budget deficit next year the NBU keeping monetary conditions relatively tight. At the same time, the Ukrainian economy will continue facing limited logistics and electricity shortages in the long run.
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Over the last 10 years, the Swiss franc has appreciated more than the yen, but in terms of value, the Swiss exports, mainly of medical goods and watches, increased by much more than those of Japan (Chart 17).
• However, heightened volatility and persistent strength in the Canadian dollar are working to slow growth and subdue inflation pressures. The current strength in the dollar is expected, over time, to more than fully offset the favourable developments since July.
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Can you tell me a little bit more about the new department? The department will have around 60 or 70 people and a very important part of its work will be to gather information and organise this in a way that will better enable us to see whether firms are complying with regulation.
These can emerge from the interaction and substitutability between the regulated and non-regulated sector (i.e. shadow banking) and from the resulting possibility of regulatory arbitrage. In addition to the more traditional macro-prudential instruments, there are other tools – perhaps, more appropriately categorized in a middle-ground between risk analysis and policy tools – that can also be very useful for macro-prudential purposes.
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In considering the regulation and supervision of climate-related risk, it is necessary to keep in mind to what extent industrial policies and environmental regulations and guidelines are effective in addressing such risks. Therefore, there may be room in this case for cooperation between the industrial sector and the financial sector.
Climate-related risk raises both cross-sectional and time-dimensional issues: the crosssectional problem is that carbon emissions affect a wide range of industries, and the timedimensional problem is that this effect is a long-term problem.
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And, as this is a virtual meeting of the IIF, I would be remiss if I did not highlight that if these projections for U.S. economic activity are realized, rising U.S. imports will serve as an important source of external demand to the rest of the world this year and beyond. As with overall economic activity, conditions in the labor market have recently improved.
After the Lehman insolvency, this reliance initially increased in most countries as risk aversion rose. Later, segmentation developed differently across countries, reflecting the perceived riskiness of each country. More recently, the Eurosystem policy to mitigate market segmentation and to safeguard an appropriate monetary policy transmission, namely by announcing Outright Monetary Transactions (OMTs), is mirrored in reduced country differences.
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This changing behaviour is unlikely to fully reverse post pandemic.
For example, survey evidence across seventeen EU countries shows that a vast majority of consumers expect to continue to use digital services as often as they do now or even more often.9 However, while the pandemic has prompted a move away from cash for some, it likely remains the most common way of making small retail payments, considering cash payments accounted for 73 per cent of all physical retail payments in 2019 across the euro area, (but 48 per cent of the value).10 Indeed the recent ECB SPACE survey, found that 56 per cent of people surveyed in Ireland thought it was important or very important to have the option to pay in cash, (slightly higher than the euro area at 54 per cent).
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I will begin by reminding you of some of the stylised facts that have characterised economic developments in the euro area over the past 12 years, as well as some of the fallacies about competitiveness that I have encountered over the years.
The construction of a diversified system that can offer the economy the necessary financial support – not in the shadows but in full transparency – cannot be deferred. The European Commission has put forward proposals for the creation of a Capital Markets Union by 2019.
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Finance has been compared to being the lubricant of the process of economic growth such that the role of financial markets in the economic development of any country cannot be underplayed. According to Robert Merton, the primary function of any financial system is to facilitate the allocation and deployment of economic resources.
The interactions of these functions work to influence saving and investment decisions, which ultimately translate into the efficient allocation of funds in an economy. The Bank of Mauritius has long recognized the role of financial markets in Mauritius and set up a Financial Markets Department as far back as in 2000.
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Thus, the basic view on the CPI in the current projection remains the same as that in the April projection, which used the 2000-base CPI, and the Bank's projection that the year-on-year increase in the CPI is likely to gradually rise continues to be valid as the Bank's main scenario. IV.
Factors causing positive and negative deviations in economic activity Economic activity has so far been generally in line with the April projection. However, any kind of projection is subject to upside and downside risks. It should be noted that the following factors could cause positive and negative deviations from the baseline projection of economic activity.
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In particular, historical evidence – both in South Africa and abroad – suggests that when price expectations are better anchored, any shock to inflation is more transient and hence allows the central bank greater latitude to quickly respond to a slowdown in real economic activity. South Africa’s inflation-targeting regime is bearing fruit in that respect.
Inflation expectations (as measured by the BER11 survey of analysts, businesses, and trade unions) are currently better anchored than in the early years of the inflation target range. This, in turn, has resulted in more moderate fluctuations, both in the short-term and in the long-term interest rates, over the economic cycle.
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This brings me to the final part of my address about Bank Indonesia commitment to safeguard economic resiliency and sustainable growth path. 37.
We believe the relatively tight monetary stance of 2015, which reflected the our emphasis on stability, allowing exchange rates flexibility, together with modest use of international reserves to ensure orderly market conditions, has enabled the economy to weather external turbulence, bring inflation back to within the target, without putting much risk on growth. 38.
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A multicurrency reserve system, once established, will probably reduce the risk of a persistent overvaluation of assets, including exchange rates. To this, one may add more evenly distributed benefits among countries from their role as reserve issuers, such as seigniorage gains and lower interest rates on their debt, as well as a decreased risk of major and persistent global external imbalances.
On the other hand, it is important to stress that a multicurrency reserve system, as well as the road leading to it, is not free of difficulties. Take the case of renminbi internationalization. This process requires, among other things, a comprehensive opening of China’s financial markets to foreign transactions, as well as a floating exchange rate.
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5 The focus on core instead of headline inflation – and clear communication with the public about that focus – can have another benefit: It may help anchor inflation expectations when headline inflation increases temporarily but core inflation remains essentially unchanged.
If the public understands that the central bank is using core inflation in formulating monetary policy and trusts that the central bank is right to do so, the public will realize that the central bank does not need to respond aggressively to a surge in headline inflation to keep inflation under control.
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This is a key aspect of the East Africa Community’s monetary and financial convergence criteria, and this has also enhanced our capability to respond to external shocks. For example, we now rely substantially on treasury securities sales and the use of repurchase agreement (repo) operations for the transmission of monetary policy.
Why are they relevant and is there really a compelling reason to leverage the capital markets towards meeting a sustainability agenda? I am very sure that all of us will agree that the answer is YES! Indeed, capital markets have the power to mobilize capital to fund innovation and ideas that would help create a more sustainable environment.
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That is, are institutional investors more likely than individual investors to actively monitor and influence both management actions and corporate governance mechanisms at the firms in which they invest? Shareholder activism may provide market discipline directly by preventing management from pursuing its own interests at the expense of shareholders.
Shareholder activism may also pave the way for other forms of market discipline - such as corporate takeovers, share price changes, and funding cost changes - by eliminating management-takeover protections and by inducing greater transparency. Unfortunately, whether institutional investors have more or less incentive to be activist shareholders than individual investors is not clear.
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Of course, the views of professional forecasters may not be representative of what the average person or firm is thinking.
It is clear that K-W cannot directly satisfy China’s growing appetite for commodities, but you can and are taking advantage of other areas of the country that do. One out of twelve oil sands manufacturers and suppliers are from this region, and Ontario’s exports to Alberta of mining-related services grew 44 per cent in the last year measured.
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Insolvency resolution prior to 2016 Prior to the enactment of IBC in 2016, India had a plethora of legislations, each having part jurisdiction over the process of insolvency resolution of a borrower. The Sick Industrial Companies Act (SICA) was enacted in 1985 and Board for 3 Industrial Financial Reconstruction (BIFR) was set up.
Subsequently, DRTs were set-up under the Recovery of Debts Due to Banks and Financial Institutions Act, 1993 (since rechristened as Recovery of Debts and Bankruptcy Act, 1993). In 2002, the Securitisation and Reconstruction of Financial Assets and Enforcement of Security Interest Act was enacted to provide for faster enforcement of security interest without the intervention of courts.
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Implications of a money growth rule As I have just noted, a pro-cyclical path for short-term interest rates would result from following a money growth rule. For an extended period, money demand has been insufficiently stable to allow the monetary aggregates to play a constructive role in the monetary policy process.
One thing is certain: if this issue is not addressed, starting today, the monetary union will face the same type of crisis again and again. The Greek crisis has let the genie out of the bottle regarding countries leaving the euro area, and it will not be easy to put it back in again. How to proceed?
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(a) Work ethic; discipline; trust: The foremost principle for economic progress was strong work ethic and discipline in the work force and creation of trust among each other. The labour force, in each of these countries, is highly disciplined, works extremely hard and carries out the orders of their supervisors ungrudgingly.
The workers mind their own business without disrupting others’ work, focus on the task given and take pride in producing results. Trust and social capital have a positive impact on the quality of development by enhancing collective action, mitigating risks, promoting accountability and reducing transaction costs.
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The Chief Vigilance Officers (CVOs), who are the extended arms of the Commission in their respective organisations, decide upon the possibility of a vigilance angle in individual cases in an organisation.
Not only the financial propriety of transactions, but certain non-financial aspects arising inter alia from conflicts of interest, nepotism and considerations of postretirement employment as a quid pro quo, are also required to be examined from a vigilance angle.
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It has been observed that while VaR satisfies the first three conditions, it does not always satisfy the fourth condition of “sub BIS central bankers’ speeches 3 additivity” which requires that the risk measure of two portfolios after they have been merged should be no greater than the sum of the their risk measure before they were merged.
That is why we may be in a position in due course to monitor the specific developments of securities holdings of households, as well as of other economic sectors such as non-financial corporations, in a more timely manner and with greater precision.
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However, a considerable portion of this debt does not trade on markets but is held by financial institutions. These assets could be indirectly included in the Fed's portfolio by having the Fed purchase claims on financial institutions, including money market mutual funds, federal funds (uncollateralized loans in the interbank market), and certificates of deposit (CDs), including euro-dollar CDs.
Even as Prof. Brahmananda’s research interests spanned a wide spectrum and he will be remembered for a number of significant contributions, his most enduring legacy is the “wagegoods model” he developed in the 1950s which provided the inspiration for what came to be known as the “Bombay School of Thought”.
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Whichever of the two approaches a central bank decides to use, it needs to be well appreciated that there are limits to what monetary policy alone can achieve. Delivering accommodative financing conditions and ample liquidity to the banking system has been necessary to avoid an abrupt deleveraging that could tip the economy into a destructive deflationary spiral.
Finally on this point I am delighted that Mr Hans Hoogervorst, Chair of the IASB, has agreed to join us today to share with us his vision on the future of IFRSs, and I am delighted that Mrs Flores, Chair of the European Financial Reporting Advisory Group is also here with us to present Europe’s view regarding IFRS developments on financial instruments.
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Although the Fed hasn’t started raising rates or reducing the balance sheet, interest rates have moved up notably. For example, the 2-year Treasury yield is more than 1 percentage point higher today than at the start of the third quarter of last year.
The 10-year Treasury yield is up 1/2 percentage point, and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is up about 1 percentage point over this period. Going forward, policymakers will adjust policy as needed, which will reinforce the Fed’s credibility. Let me conclude by saying I hope my remarks today contribute to the Fed’s effective and credible communications.
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Connected banks can take full advantage of BI-FAST to provide the best retail payment services to the public. In addition to the three flagship programs, namely QRIS, SNAP and BI-FAST, Bank Indonesia will also strengthen digital payment system reforms with development programs to optimize data and maintain the availability and reliability of the Bank Indonesia Payment System.
This evolution continued to pick up speed in the years that followed through a number of legislative moves that validated the creation of ever larger banks. The scope of activities continued to grow BIS Review 37/2010 1 through the 1990s and by the end of the decade we saw the merger between Citicorp and Travelers Group.
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In fact, we are confident it will, as we know that some of the recommendations have already been successfully implemented. The report is the result of the nine month programme and was produced by the ECB and national central bank colleagues following an analysis of your current practices.
In particular, U.S. residents’ ownership of foreign assets has risen to nearly $ trillion (more than 140 percent of annual U.S. GDP), reflecting the leading role of U.S. capital markets in cross-border finance. Total foreign investment in the United States is even larger, at more than $ trillion.
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Both the European Parliament and the European Central Bank have a key role to play in steering Europe through the current crises, and in making it better and stronger for the future. Being fully conscious of the importance of this moment, I feel especially humbled and honoured to have been selected as a candidate for member of the Executive Board of the ECB.
Banks borrow some money from the Reserve Bank on a more or less continuous basis - for instance, when they need notes to fill their automated teller machines. The Reserve Bank lends funds to the banks at an interest rate called the repurchase rate or repo rate. Currently it amounts to 13,5 per cent per annum.
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96/DSN-MUI/IV/2015. The availability of hedging swaps is expected to strengthen risk management for sharia banks and bolster confidence to conduct foreign exchange transactions to support economic financing.
As of 21st August 2021, we have welcomed over 700,000 tourists to our shores this year, and with the peak season still ahead of us it is likely that in the absence of further travel restrictions, total arrivals for the year will surpass 1 million. Given the revival of the tourism sector and other economic sectors, our outlook for economic growth is positive.
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The markets are mutually reinforcing, but, ideally, the competitive conditions in all the markets need to be broadly in sync and avoid serious mis-alignments with each other.
1 The views presented here are my own and not necessarily those of other members of the Board of Governors or the Federal Open Market Committee. BIS Review 74/2009 1 The result was the rising vulnerability of these institutions to non-traditional sources of risk.
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Another illustration of differences between the Government and RBI culminating in the resignation of Governor Rama Rau in 1957 is well documented (Balachandran G, 1998). Another major area of discord between the RBI and the Government in the late 1950s related to the financing of the cooperatives and the pattern of organisation of the lending agencies.
In this way, microfinance not only contributes to the economic development of a country, but also enriches the financial system and financial supervision. So maybe, rather than “A billion to gain”, it’s a question of “Billions to gain”! Thank you. 4 BIS Review 78/2008
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The effect on real activity will be strongest if the public is confident in the central bank's unshakable commitment to price stability, as that confidence will moderate any tendency of wages, prices, or long-term interest rates to rise today in anticipation of possible future inflationary pressures generated by the current easing of policy.
However, the relationship is much likely to be non-linear, which means exchange rate floating needs to be progressed in a gradual and proper manner and should be managed in line with the state of the economy and BOP position. Exchange rate adjustment poses pressures on the corporate sector’s structural adjustment.
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In particular, lower-grade financial firms have been affected mainly on account of increased credit risk perceptions and a much lower general risk appetite. Perhaps the most striking indicator of the various stages in the current crisis is the spread between the three-month Euribor, an indicative rate for unsecured lending among banks, and the three-month euro overnight index average (Eonia) swap rate (Chart 4).
A strong increase of the spread in summer 2007 and in September 2008 reflects the reluctance of banks to lend to each other, closely related to a general lack of transparency about the risks individual banks have been carrying on their books. In aggregate terms, credit market-related writedowns of financial institutions amounted worldwide to USD 780 billion in mid-January 2009.
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* * * Today we launch the 2015 Citi Microenterpreneurship Awards or CMA, a groundbreaking program that has allowed us to discover the creativity, tenacity and generosity of Filipino microentrepreneurs across our country. We just heard the testimony of Ms. Teresita Valdez, one of about a hundred CMA awardees so far.
It is hard to argue with that conclusion, though we should keep in mind that, like all countries, China and India will experience economic cycles around this trend. In the case of our imports, China has also increased its share sharply over the past decade, from 6 per cent to 17 per cent.
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Thematic investments represent a further stream of action, allocating capital to developing new technologies and enabling activities such as renewable electricity production, the improvement of 9 10 Bloomberg, “ESG by the Numbers: Sustainable Investing Set Records in 2021”. Available at: https:// www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-03/esg-by-the-numbers-sustainable-investing-setrecords-in-2021 Morningstar Manager Research, "Global Sustainable Fund Flow: Q4 2021" in review, January 31, 2022.
Considering the specific mandate of the Bank, we think that contributions to IDA and Trust Funds cumulated over time should also be included in the criteria for realignment. Additionally, the underlying principle for introducing further criteria should be the preservation of the Bank’s financial soundness. The definition of broader shareholding realignment should also provide stable guidance for future review of shareholder representation.
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The issue has been compounded at the present juncture on account of a variety of factors, viz., (a) increasing proportion of old people, (b) higher degree of urbanisation and greater migration from rural to urban areas, (c) diminishing support for old people from families due to changes in family structure, (d) higher rearing cost of surviving children and (e) old people require greater resources and need support for a longer period.
As such, the key issue is whether such support is provided by private or public funding. It may be noted that the inability of private provision implies greater reliance on public funding which is a burden on the fisc. In the Asian context, this issue is of great relevance as ageing is occurring at lower income levels.
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I am sure that this growth will continue into the future. I am therefore pleased that a commercial bank has decided to establish a branch in this busy part of the Suva-Nausori corridor. It makes good business sense for Westpac to establish a branch here. Westpac is the only bank branch for kilometers in any direction.
The reason might be that interest rates across economies are heavily influenced by the global financial cycle At the centre is the Federal Reserve. There is a high degree of spill-overs between financial markets in different countries. Therefore, a change in financial conditions in a large economy like the US quickly transmits to conditions in other financially open economies.
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However, the current price hike seems to be affected not only by the yen’s depreciation and the rise in energy prices but also by the fact that the economy – mainly on the employment front – is starting to reach the upper limit of supply capacity sooner than expected, as the economic recovery is led mainly by nonmanufacturing, for which labor productivity is lower than that in manufacturing.
In what follows, I explain this matter. B.
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In particular, corporate earnings and profitability have been sustained, employment growth has been robust and unemployment has fallen. However, given the financial market volatility and the reappraisal of risk seen in recent weeks, this assessment is surrounded by heightened uncertainty.
More efforts should be made to build a harmonious financial system compatible with the comprehensive, balanced and sustainable economic development. To be explicit, we will make efforts in the following aspects: First, harmonize the relationship between economic and financial development. The ultimate goal of financial development is to promote economic development.
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In his Economic and Fiscal Update November 16, Minister Goodale described the remarkable strength and resiliency of the Canadian economy following numerous shocks in 2003, including SARS, a single, isolated case of “mad cow” disease and the strong appreciation of the Canadian dollar. Canada weathered this period of economic slowdown, and has recovered from relatively weak growth of two per cent in 2003.
In fact, Canada saw growth of 3.4 per cent in the first half of the year - much stronger than expected. Private sector forecasters now expect growth of three per cent for all of 2004, and 3.2 per cent growth in 2005.
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See Stephanie E. Curcuru, Michiel De Pooter, and George Eckerd (2018), "Measuring Monetary Policy Spillovers between U.S. and German Bond Yields," International Finance Discussion Papers 1226 (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, April). 5 The Federal Reserve's broad trade-weighted dollar index is based on 26 currencies of major U.S. trading partners.
For some households at least, losses in stock portfolios have been mitigated by significant increases in the value of residential real estate. These rises in house prices have led some to worry about the possibility of a "bubble" in housing prices and the associated risks of further losses in household wealth, should this putative bubble pop.
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This is the “risk taking channel of policy”, which has gained ground during this prolonged period of low global interest rates. Let me illustrate why this has been so. First, the low interest rate environment encourages agents to take more risk than they normally would…just to enhance yield on their portfolio.
The cash in our pockets reminds us that, despite our diversity, we share a common endeavour that goes beyond national borders. 1 European Commission (2021), Standard Eurobarometer 95. 2 ECB (2021), The impact of the euro on trade: two decades into monetary union, Occasional Paper No 283. 3 ECB (2021), Annual review of the international role of the euro. 4 The Eurosystem cash strategy.
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There should be more real-life examples to test the resilience of blockchain applications. Certain financial firms have already taken the first steps. Central banks are experimenting with blockchain and are open to further advancements, while keeping a close eye on the possible risks. For the moment however, we can only conclude that blockchain hasn’t led to any groundbreaking changes in the payments ecosystem.
It would be unfair to only look at Germany for this situation, as many serious policy mistakes were made in southern countries. First, several countries failed to implement the structural reforms that were needed to function smoothly in a monetary union. Rigidities in product and labor markets contributed to severe losses of price competitiveness.
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A fiscal union would undoubtedly be the largest step in the European integration process since the launch of the euro. But it would be impossible to transfer sovereignty to the extent required without making substantial amendments to the EU Treaty and national constitutions. So, the political obstacles on the path to a genuine fiscal union are very high.
If this course of action fails to attract sufficient political support, the only other option to make the monetary union more stable in the long run would be to eliminate the weaknesses and contradictions of the Maastricht framework and its core principle of national responsibility as it stands today.
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I want to thank all of you for participating in today’s discussion about the financing needs of small businesses. I particularly want to thank Karen Mills, the Small Business Administration (SBA) Administrator, for her remarks and our distinguished panelists for helping us to better understand the dynamics of small business lending in these difficult economic times.
I would also like to thank everyone who participated in the more than 40 regional meetings that led up to today’s conference and to thank the Reserve Banks for their sponsorship and organization of those meetings.
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However, most subsequent empirical studies suggest that although quantitative easing contributed to stabilizing the financial system, the impact on economic activity and prices was limited.17 Moreover, preliminary assessment indicates that the extent to which the decline in interest rates resulting from the policy duration effect of the quantitative easing policy affected the yields of other financial assets – the so-called “portfolio rebalancing effect” – was limited.
Since the Bank began targeting inflation almost 25 years ago, interest rates have been lower and economic growth has been stronger and more stable. We know that inflation is fundamentally driven by the amount of economic slack we have. If the economy is operating below its capacity, that will put downward pressure on inflation. However, inflation is a noisy indicator.
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Although the motivation of the study was different, their empirical results found economic justification for the policy of bank privatisation. Let me encapsulate this section by making some general comments on the efficiency and productivity growth of Indian banks vis-à-vis leading Asian nations like China and Korea.
As far as real growth (adjusted for price movement and exchange rate fluctuations) in banking business is concerned, Indian banks are favourably placed. In recent years, the real growth of deposits and of loans of Indian banks were noticeably higher than those of other Asian countries such as China and Korea.
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It is true that in these countries, and this has also been the case in Portugal, the high starting position of public debt, the significant stock-flow adjustments and the fact that the budget multipliers are currently higher than usual, are leading to a deterioration in the public debt ratio in the initial phase of the consolidation process.
BIS central bankers’ speeches 3 This counterintuitive and undesirable initial effect will only be reversed by the cumulative adjustment of the primary balance, the reduction of the interest rate (which in turn depends on the credibility of the adjustment) and last but not least the increase in the economy’s growth potential.
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15 For instance, the Eurosystem might only be responsible for issuing the digital money, without providing the settlement infrastructure or intervening in distribution – the "issuance model".
9 Adam Smith ([1759] 2009), The Theory of Moral Sentiments (Munich, Germany: GRIN Verlag), p. 119. 10 For a summary, see Ed Diener, Eunkook M. Suh, Richard E. Lucas, and Heidi L. Smith (1999), “Subjective Well-Being: Three Decades of Progress,” Psychological Bulletin, vol. 125 (2), pp. 276–302.
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To repeat and summarize: Central banks are involved in financial stability: being banks themselves with business operations, it is necessary for central banks to control the soundness of their counterparts; in addition central banks are entrusted with the exclusive task of providing ultimate liquidity.
They play an important role in crises management and in maintaining financial stability, regardless of the institutional structure for supervision which is adopted in the respective jurisdiction.
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I’m not sure if the yellow colour of our badges has been deliberately chosen to indicate a yellow card, i.e. to be warned due to a foul. Maybe some people see that even a discussion about a digital central bank currency is dangerous play. But here today we won’t be afraid of discussion.
Last year, I called for us to focus in particular on completing a “green capital markets union”.7 This is because equity investors are more suitable to finance riskier and more innovative projects, which are key to the digital and green transition. We also have a first-mover advantage in green finance, with 60% of global green bond issuance taking place in the EU.
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During this period, we have witnessed only one serious balance of payments crisis triggered largely by the Gulf war in the early 1990s. The Indian economy, in the later years, could successfully avoid any adverse contagion impact of shocks from the East Asian crisis, the Russian crisis during 1997-98, sanction-like-situation in post-Pokhran scenario, and the border conflict during May-June 1999.
Viewed in this context, this robust macroeconomic performance, in the face of recent oil as well as food shocks, demonstrates the vibrancy and resilience of the Indian economy. It is necessary to note that, despite the recent encouraging performance, the Indian economy faces several severe challenges. These relate, in particular, to poverty, education, health, environment, physical infrastructure, and fiscal issues.
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We are aimed at rendering distribution more equitable based on high efficiency, at optimizing the mechanism for primary distribution and redistribution, and at establishing a reasonable tertiary distribution system appropriate for social governance. It is expected that the “cake” will be distributed properly under proper institutional arrangements. In terms of its content, common prosperity refers to richness in an all-round way.
It is the richness not only materially, but also spiritually and culturally. It is the all-round development of the people. It should be achieved through the coordinated development of economy, politics, culture, society, and ecology, and through the continuous improvement of basic public services. Common prosperity is ultimately for all the people.
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For this reason, the modeling of default correlations, and how correlations change with economic conditions, is one of the most important inputs into measures of portfolio credit risk at banks. Default correlations and how they are modeled are also important to bank regulators and are heavily emphasized within the Basel II capital standards.
Collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, are one of a number of financial instruments whose prices are sensitive to the pattern of default correlations. As a result, the prices of these instruments provide us with a forward-looking picture of the market’s perception of default correlations and an indication of how the risks of changes in correlation are priced.
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