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of income security Promote as most as possible participation in the labour force  Disincentives for people to seek employment SOCIAL PROTECTION FOR PERSONS WITH DISABILITIES CHALLENGES Provide an adequate level of income security Promote as most as possible participation in the labour force by removing benefits  Higher risk of poverty SOCIAL PROTECTION FOR PERSONS WITH DISABILITIES CHALLENGES A few countries followed the route of promoting participation in the labour force by removing benefits ⇒ Limited success Evidence from countries suggests more successful alternatives ⇒ imposing obligations on employers to support reintegration is more effective SOCIAL PROTECTION FOR PERSONS WITH DISABILITIES CHALLENGES Disability benefits often determined with a medical approach Does not take into account: The real risk of poverty The real impact in participation May result in an over- or under-compensation from the economic point of view SOCIAL PROTECTION FOR PERSONS WITH DISABILITIES OPTIONS FOR ADDRESSING THESE CHALLENGES To promote participation in society and employment, social protection policies should: Promote employment of persons with disabilities through support for training and rehabilitation Avoid entitlements linked to staying in residential institutions To reduce the risk of income insecurity and poverty, social protection policies should: Include social protections policies that protect those who are not able to find suitable employment Take into consideration the extra costs linked to disability (accessible transportation, assistive devices, etc.)
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Identify ways of assessing support needs in terms of additional costs incurred due to disability and reduction of income due to disability Thanks!
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5 Chapter I Social protection and social progress A. Social protection systems in context Comprehensive social protection systems are common in more developed regions. An increasing number of countries in less developed regions are also expanding their social protection programmes or putting new ones in place, with support from the international community.
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This section presents social protection in the framework of the international development agenda and provides a brief overview of recent trends in social protection coverage. 1. Concepts and definitions In this report, social protection is defined as all measures providing benefits in cash or in kind to guarantee income security and access to health care.
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Comprehensive social protection systems secure protection from, among other things, lack of work-related income caused by sickness, disability, maternity, employment injury, unemployment, old age or death of a family member, and general poverty and social exclusion; they also ensure access to basic health care, and provide family support, particularly for children and adult dependants (ILO, 2014a). For the purposes of this report, “social protection” is an alternative term for “social security”.
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Other definitions of social pro- tection, beyond the scope of this report, include access to key services, such as educa- Key messages • • Evidence from across the world shows the potential of social protection systems to prevent poverty, reduce inequality and improve levels of health and education. • • Even in countries where social protection is guaranteed by law, not all segments of the population are reached effectively.
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Discrimination, socioeconomic disadvantage and the way in which policies are designed and implemented play a role in keeping social protection out of the reach of some individuals and groups. • • Lack of universal, tax-financed social protection measures, inaccurate targeting, com- plex registration systems and insufficient information increase the risk of exclusion from social protection for those most in need.
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• • Understanding the barriers that potential beneficiaries face in obtaining access to social protection is necessary if SDG target 1.3 is to be met for all nations, peoples and segments of society. • • Promoting social inclusion requires social protection policies that address the causes of poverty and exclusion, rather than merely their symptoms, throughout the life cycle. • • Social protection is just one, albeit important, element of fiscal policy.
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The impact of fiscal policy on poverty, inequality and exclusion depends on how the burden of taxa- tion and public spending are distributed. Governments must ensure that fiscal policy improves the situation of people who are disadvantaged, instead of making it worse. 6 Promoting Inclusion through Social Protection tion, social work and social care, as well as other measures, including labour market polices (ADB, 2001; World Bank, 2012; UNDP, 2016a).
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Public social protection schemes are usually funded through the payment of contributions by individuals and/or employers (contributory schemes) or through taxes (tax-financed schemes).5 The most common contributory programmes are social insurance schemes, including unemployment and health insurance schemes.
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Con- tributory schemes may be fully funded by contributions made by beneficiaries and employers, but many are partly financed through taxes, either in the form of subsidies or to make up for scheme shortfalls. Public support allows for a more equitable dis- tribution of benefits, particularly for individuals with low incomes and short or inter- rupted work careers. Tax-financed (or non-contributory) programmes include many forms of social assistance.
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Some offer universal coverage, as with social pension schemes under which eligibility is determined solely by citizenship or residence status, or, in some cases, by non-receipt of any other type of social insurance or pension. Other schemes are means tested. Entitlement to means-tested schemes is granted only to those with income or wealth below a prescribed threshold, as with minimum-income benefits, or to those meeting other criteria defined in proxy means tests.
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Some tax-financed schemes require the participant to meet specific conditions to receive the benefit. Unemployment assistance, for instance, is often contingent on ben- eficiaries enrolling in vocational training programmes designed to help them to find work. Conditional cash transfer programmes include conditions designed to encour- age certain practices in beneficiary households, such as ensuring that children com- plete a course of vaccinations or enrol in school.
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Although tax-financed programmes are also referred to as non-contributory schemes, taxes are one form of contribution by members of society to public well-being. Individuals who meet the requirements of each programme are entitled to benefit from them. Rather than being beneficiaries of charity, people have the right to social protec- tion and may lodge claims to access it under international law, as is set out below. 2.
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2. Social protection and the international development framework The human right to social security is set forth in the Universal Declaration on Human Rights and various human rights instruments, while International Labour Organiza- tion (ILO) conventions and recommendations define the normative framework and set standards for the establishment and development of social protection systems.6 The ILO Social Security (Minimum Standards) Convention, 1952 (No.
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102), was the first international instrument to establish minimum standards applicable to all countries, regardless of their degree of economic development, for the following social security benefits: sickness, unemployment, old age, employment injury, family, maternity, invalidity and survivors, as well as medical care.
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In 1995, at the World Summit for Social Development, Governments agreed that social protection systems should be anchored in law and, as appropriate, strengthened and expanded “in order to protect from poverty people who cannot find work; people who cannot work due to sickness, disability, old age or maternity, or to their caring for 5 In less developed regions they may also be (at least partly) financed by external development assistance. 6 See the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (arts.
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22 and 25), International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (arts. 9 and 11), the Convention on the Elimination of all Forms of Discrimination against Women (arts. 11 and 14), the Convention on the Rights of the Child (arts. 26 and 27), the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (art. 28) and various ILO instruments. ILO has produced a compendium of social security standards and human rights instruments (ILO, 2017c).
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7 Social protection and social progress children and sick or older relatives; families that have lost a breadwinner through death or marital breakup; and people who have lost their livelihoods due to natural disasters or civil violence, wars or forced displacement”.7 In 1994, Governments had agreed in the Programme of Action of the International Conference on Population and Devel- opment to “establish social security measures that addressed the social, cultural and economic factors behind the increasing costs of child-rearing”.8 In the Beijing Declara- tion and Platform for Action, adopted at the Fourth World Conference on Women in 1995, world leaders agreed to create or review social security systems “with a view to placing individual women and men on an equal footing, at every stage of their lives”.9 The World Summit for Social Development was, however, the only occasion on which the need to enhance social protection following the established minimum standards was addressed at a major United Nations summit.
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The notion of social protection as a policy instrument for eradicating poverty and promoting development gained momentum in the 2000s. In 2001, participants at the eighty-ninth session of the International Labour Conference reaffirmed the com- mitment of ILO to the Declaration of Philadelphia (1944) and its obligation to extend “social security measures to provide a basic income to all in need of such protection and comprehensive medical care” (ILO, 2001).
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They also stressed the role of social security as a fundamental means of fostering cohesion in society and thereby helping to ensure social peace and inclusion.
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Two years later, the World Bank also made the case for social protection as a key instrument for development, given its capacity to reduce vulnerability and smooth out patterns of consumption, and noted that “there is a major mobility in and out of poverty, and thus concentrating on the (ex-post) poor instead of the (ex-ante) vulnerable may be less effective” (World Bank, 2003, p. 1).
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In 2009, the United Nations System Chief Executives Board for Coordination launched its Social Protection Floor initiative as one of its nine system-wide joint crisis initiatives aimed at alleviating the impact of the 2008 financial crisis. In the initiative, it was noted that alleviating the social impacts of the crisis was but one of the objectives of the social protection floor.
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The role of a social protection floor should be to provide a rights-based, systemic “insurance” against poverty for all people at all times. Mem- ber States endorsed the initiative at the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20) in 2012 and underscored the importance of social protection in General Assembly resolution 66/288. Subsequently, ILO adopted the Social Protection Floors Recommendation, 2012 (No.
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202), reflecting a consensus among Governments, employers and workers on the extension of social protection (see box I.1). The international consensus on the importance of social protection as a key policy tool for promoting far-reaching improvements in human well-being was rein- forced by the adoption of the 2030 Agenda.
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In particular, under SDG 1 (“End poverty in all its forms everywhere”), Governments have committed to implementing social protection systems and measures for all, including floors, with a focus on achieving substantial coverage for the poor and vulnerable (target 1.3).
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Success should be meas- ured, according to associated indicator 1.3.1, by progress in increasing the proportion of the population covered by social protection floors/systems, by sex, and distinguish- ing children, unemployed persons, older persons, persons with disabilities, pregnant women, newborns, work-injury victims and the poor and the vulnerable. Directly 7 Report of the World Summit for Social Development (United Nations, Sales No. E.96.IV.8), chap. I, resolution I, annex I, para. 38.
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I, resolution I, annex I, para. 38. 8 Report of the International Conference on Population and Development (United Nations, Sales No. 95.XIII.18), chap. I, resolution I, annex, paras. 5.2 and 5.9. 9 Report of the Fourth World Conference on Women (United Nations, Sales No. 96.IV.13), chap. I, resolution I, annex II, paras. 58(o) and 106(d).
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58(o) and 106(d). 8 Promoting Inclusion through Social Protection related goals include SDG 3 on health and achieving universal health coverage (target 3.8), SDG 5 on gender equality, including valuing unpaid care and domestic work (tar- get 5.4), SDG 8 on decent work for all and sustainable economic growth and SDG 10 on reducing inequalities.
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The Addis Ababa Action Agenda envisages a new social compact to end pov- erty in all its forms everywhere, whereby States commit themselves to providing “fis- cally sustainable and nationally appropriate social protection systems and measures for all, including floors, with a focus on those furthest below the poverty line and the vulnerable, persons with disabilities, indigenous persons, children, youth and older persons”.10 This commitment signifies a renewed willingness on the part of countries to place social protection at the heart of their public budgeting in order to combat poverty, with an overarching concern for equity.
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3. Trends in social protection coverage Great strides were made in the twentieth century in terms of social protection around the world. By 1930, countries such as Australia, Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Norway, Sweden and the United Kingdom were devoting more than 2 per cent of gross national product (GNP) to employment injury protection, public pensions and poor relief pro- grammes (Lindert, 2004).
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Social protection systems expanded rapidly in what are now high-income countries starting in 1945 and, subsequently, in others that are now clas- sified as middle-income, namely in Central Asia and Eastern Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean and in Southern Africa (ILO, 2014a). Currently, legal entitlements for every citizen are established in all relevant areas of social protection in most coun- tries in Europe, Northern America and Latin America. 10 General Assembly resolution 69/313, para. 12.
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10 General Assembly resolution 69/313, para. 12. Box I.1 Social protection floors The ILO Social Protection Floors Recommendation, 2012 (No. 202), has received broad approval at the global and regional levels, having been endorsed by the United Nations, the Group of Twenty (G-20), the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the Euro- pean Union.
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The structure of social protection systems will vary from country to country, but the ILO recommendation provides broad guidance on how to lay the foundations of a comprehensive system. A basic social protection floor should ensure that all in need, whether children, people of working age or older persons, have access to basic health care and income security throughout the life cycle.
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The United Nations, through various agencies, supports Member States in establishing and promoting nationally defined social protection floors as part of their broader social protection systems. For example, Cabo Verde and Mozambique have developed such floors with the support of United Nations country teams.
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In June 2015, the World Bank Group and ILO launched the joint Universal Social Protection Initiative, calling the atten- tion of world leaders to the importance of universal social protection policies and their financing. The United Nations Office for South-South Cooperation and ILO have facilitated peer-to-peer learning in this area and major events, such as the China high-level event on achieving the SDGs in relation to social protection, which was held in Beijing in Septem- ber 2016.
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In addition, bilateral cooperation initiatives on the issue have emerged. 9 Social protection and social progress There has been significant progress in Africa and Asia, particularly since the early 2000s. In many countries, however, legal coverage is limited to a few areas and only a minority of the population has access to social protection schemes anchored in national legislation.
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Often, only public sector workers or those in other types of formal employment are covered by contributory schemes, while tax-based schemes are frag- mented and available only to a small percentage of the population.11 Countries have tended to broaden their social protection systems sequentially, depending on national circumstances and development priorities.
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Most began with stand-alone schemes to address employment injury, then introduced old-age pensions, disability and survivors’ benefits, followed by sickness, health and maternity coverage. Benefits for children and families, and unemployment benefits, typically came later. As systems have become more comprehensive, countries have moved to strengthen the links between different programmes (ILO, 2017a). The expansion of comprehensive social protection systems has not, however, been a steady process.
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During the 1980s and 1990s, multilateral financial institutions and donors promoted targeted, often temporary, social assistance schemes as a more cost-effective way than universal schemes to alleviate extreme poverty in lower-income countries. Increasingly, targeted schemes substituted, rather than complemented, uni- versal measures. In some Latin American countries, for instance, universal schemes were dismantled in favour of narrower means-tested approaches (ECLAC, 2015).
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In 2014, ILO found that 122 countries had reduced public expenditure on social protec- tion as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) since 2010. Those cuts came in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis, when the income security of much of the population of those countries was at great risk (ILO, 2014a). Many developing countries have, however, attempted to expand access to social protection.
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Even in regions where comprehensive legal coverage is less widespread, such as Southern Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, some countries have grounded their efforts in the right to social security.
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In India, the National Food Security Act of 2013 entitles approximately two thirds of the population to highly subsidized food grains, and the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act of 2005 guarantees 100 days of wage employment per year to every household whose adult members apply for unskilled manual work. In South Africa, the right of all to social security, including appropriate social assistance, is guaranteed under the Constitution (chap. 2, art. 27).
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2, art. 27). The extension of legal provisions does not, however, guarantee effective cover- age, which may be hampered by inadequate implementation and enforcement of the law or by the lack of institutional capacity to design and deliver transfers.
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Legal cover- age measures entitlement as stipulated under the law, while effective coverage meas- ures how legal provisions are implemented.12 Despite improvements over the past decades, it is estimated that only 45 per cent of the world’s population is effectively covered by at least one social protection scheme (ILO, 2017a). The remaining 55 per cent of the population—around 4.1 billion peo- ple—are not covered at all (ibid.). These averages mask large regional differences.
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These averages mask large regional differences. 11 For a detailed description of trends in social protection by country and region, as well as by specific type of social protection, see ILO (2017a). Information may also be gleaned from international databases, such as ILO Social Security Inquiry (SSI) (www.ilo.org/dyn/ilossi/ssimain.home), the SDG Indicators Global Database (https://unstats.
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un.org/sdgs/indicators/database) and the World Bank Atlas of Social Protection Indicators of Resilience and Equity (ASPIRE) database (http://datatopics.worldbank.org/aspire/home). 12 Effective coverage is different from programme take-up, which refers to the number or proportion of people who claim a benefit. Even in the case of universal programmes (such as child benefits), the aim may not be 100 per cent take-up.
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People may not participate because they are sufficiently well-off and the benefit would have a negligible impact. Effective coverage estimates include all individuals for whom benefits are guaranteed.
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10 Promoting Inclusion through Social Protection Almost 90 per cent of the population is covered by at least one benefit in Europe, a lit- tle more than 60 per cent is covered in Latin America and the Caribbean and less than 15 per cent is covered in sub-Saharan Africa.13 Moreover, only 29 per cent of the global population enjoy comprehensive cover- age, including disability, employment injury, maternity and unemployment benefits, old-age pensions and child or family benefits (ibid.).
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Nonetheless, there has been a steady increase in coverage in recent years, particularly with regard to pensions (see chapter IV). Countries such as Brazil, Cabo Verde, China, Ghana, India, Mexico, Mozambique, South Africa and Thailand have made significant efforts to extend social protection. B. The impact of social protection on well-being 1.
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The impact of social protection on well-being 1. Reducing income poverty and inequality In general, countries that have reduced poverty and improved living conditions on a broad scale have developed comprehensive social protection systems cover- ing a majority of the population. On average, public social protection expenditure accounted for 27 per cent of GDP in Western Europe and 19 per cent in Northern America in 2015 (ibid.).
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Social protection not only benefits people living in poverty, but promotes the well-being of societies at large. While the impact of social protection programmes var- ies according to their design, the level of implementation and the adequacy of trans- fers, evidence from around the world shows their potential not only to prevent poverty, but also to reduce inequality and stimulate economic growth.
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Income insecurity pre- vents households from making productive investments and may lead them to forgo necessary health care and withdraw children from school. By helping people living in poverty to address trade-offs between meeting their immediate needs and secur- ing future livelihoods, social protection measures can encourage the accumulation of productive assets and investment in physical and human capital, ease access to credit and help households to manage risk.
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Transfers can also stimulate demand and boost consumption. During economic downturns, when private spending is constrained, increased public spending in social protection is vital to revive economies and stimu- late employment. Thus, if properly designed and implemented, social protection pro- grammes promote inclusive and equitable economic growth and can address some of the root causes of poverty and inequality.
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Fiszbein, Kanbur and Yemtsov (2014) calculated that the number of people liv- ing in extreme poverty—estimated at 767 million in 2013—would have been up to 165 million higher without the transfers households received from social protection programmes.14 Among the regions covered in their study, the impact of social protec- tion on poverty is greatest in the richer countries with economies in transition—in Eastern Europe and Central Asia—and smallest in sub-Saharan African countries for which data are available, where social protection transfers move less than 1 per cent of 13 Regional and country-level data can be accessed through the SDG Indicators Global Database (Available from https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/indicators/database, accessed 7 December 2017).
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See also ILO (2017a). 14 The estimates are based on data from the World Bank ASPIRE database (http://datatopics.worldbank.org/aspire/ home), which contained data for 59 countries, mostly in the developing world, at the time of the study. Countries in the more developed regions other than countries with economies in transition (in Eastern and Southern Europe) are not included in the database.
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To obtain their estimates, the authors extrapolated data from the 59 countries to the total population in developing regions. The estimates use a $1.25-a-day poverty line and take into consideration the impact only of cash transfers on current well-being; they do not include the impact of insurance on protection against future shocks or income from productive investment or employment generated through social protection. The total poverty headcount for 2013 comes from United Nations (2017a).
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11 Social protection and social progress the population out of poverty. Although some countries of sub-Saharan Africa have significantly stepped up efforts to expand access in recent years, social protection pro- grammes are still piecemeal and often do not provide adequate benefits (ILO, 2014a). Moreover, poverty in sub-Saharan Africa is, on average, deeper than in other regions, and the amount of income needed to lift people to the poverty line is therefore greater.
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Additionally, a study of 33 Asian countries finds that the impact of social protec- tion on poverty—using the $1.25-a-day and $2.50-a-day poverty lines—is significant even after controlling for the effect of such variables as GDP, GDP growth and popula- tion age structure (Wagle, 2017). It finds that poverty reduction is faster in countries that spend more on social protection, at similar income and income growth levels, and regardless of population age structure.
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Overall, almost half of the poverty gap in developing countries is eliminated through social protection, according to Fiszbein, Kanbur and Yemstov (2014). How- ever, most transfers are not meant to close the poverty gap: only 8 per cent of all trans- fers contribute to reducing it. Immediate poverty reduction is certainly not the only goal of social protection programmes—many measures are in fact designed to pre- vent people from falling into poverty.
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Nevertheless, achieving substantial coverage of the poor and the vulnerable calls for more progressive social spending and a stronger focus on ending poverty. While informative, the above-mentioned estimates only quantify the impact of social protection transfers on the prevalence of extreme poverty at one point in time. Poverty, however, does not affect only a fixed group of individuals; everyone is at risk of experiencing it at some point.
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Many people escape poverty only to fall back into it, or fall into poverty for the first time because of an economic shock, natural disaster or health problem. Evidence regarding the impact of social protection on the dynamics of poverty is largely limited to assessments of social assistance schemes that aim to graduate ben- eficiaries out of receiving support once they reach a certain level of assets, income, age or time in the programme.
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Research indicates that temporary cash transfers alone are insufficient to ensure that beneficiaries remain out of poverty.15 In the United King- dom, according to Cappellari and Jenkins (2008), 32 per cent of beneficiaries of social assistance programmes who exited poverty became beneficiaries at least once again between 1991 and 2005.
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Villa and Niño-Zarazúa (2014) estimate that, in Mexico, only 29 per cent and 27 per cent of beneficiary households in urban and rural areas, respec- tively, graduated from the Oportunidades programme between 2002 and the period from 2009 to 2012—that is, they were no longer receiving transfers from 2009 to 2012.
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The above-mentioned findings underscore that social protection programmes should ensure the well-being of all throughout the life cycle by addressing the risk of poverty, rather than poverty itself. They also make the case for broad policy action to tackle the conditions that cause and perpetuate poverty, rather than merely its symp- toms (see chapter VIII). Social protection also affects income inequality as measured by the Gini coef- ficient.
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Among the regions shown in figure I.1, the combination of social insurance and tax-financed social assistance programmes available has the greatest equalizing effect in countries of Eastern Europe and Central Asia. In countries where informal employment is widespread and overall institutional capacity is weak, namely in parts of Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, tax-financed social assistance programmes have the 15 See Browne (2013), Devereux and Sabates-Wheeler (2015) and Bastagli and others (2016).
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12 Promoting Inclusion through Social Protection most marked impact on inequality. Social insurance schemes play a greater equalizing role in middle- and high-income countries. Figure I.1 Impact of social insurance and social assistance programmes on the Gini coefficient in selected regions Source: World Bank, The Atlas of Social Protection Indicators of Resilience and Equity (ASPIRE) database, table 5. Avail- able from http://datatopics.worldbank.org/aspire (accessed 14 November 2017).
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Note: The figure shows weighted regional averages of the Gini inequality coefficient reduction owing to social pro- tection programmes as a percentage of the pre-transfer Gini coefficient. The estimates are based on data from the most recent household surveys (ranging from 2000 to 2014) in 107 countries (see annex 1 for data by country). The extent to which information on specific social protection transfers and programmes is captured in household surveys varies from one country to another.
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The nature of those programmes and transfers also varies significantly. Under so- cial assistance programmes, ASPIRE includes data on conditional and other cash transfers, social pensions, food and other in-kind transfers, school feeding programmes, fee waivers and targeted subsidies, public works programmes and what the database generally designates as “other social assistance” (ranging from scholarships to country-specif- ic cash transfer programmes for children).
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That is broadly in line with what is termed tax-financed programmes in this report, with the important difference that ASPIRE does not provide data on public health expenditure. However, the situation varies considerably by country. Social protection transfers lead to a dramatic decline in income inequality in developing countries such as Mauri- tius, Mongolia and South Africa (annex 1), where public expenditure on social protec- tion, including health, is relatively high.
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Spending amounted to about 10 per cent of GDP in Mauritius and South Africa—two of the countries with the highest such spend- ing in sub-Saharan Africa—and 14 per cent in Mongolia in 2014-2015 (ILO, 2017a). 2. Improving other dimensions of well-being Social protection programmes also have a positive impact on non-monetary dimen- sions of poverty, namely access to education and health.
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Research on cash and in-kind transfers in developing countries shows that, in the short-term, those measures have helped to increase school enrolment and attendance and to improve the health and, to a certain extent, nutritional status of people in beneficiary households (ILO, 2010; Bastagli and others, 2016).
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The impact is often greater where levels of health and edu- cation are lowest at baseline—in rural areas and especially among girls (Attanasio and others, 2005; Agüero, Carter and Woolard, 2007; ILO, 2010).
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In Colombia, for instance, the introduction of the Familias en Acción programme resulted in a 10 per cent improvement in school attendance among children aged from 12 to 17 in rural areas 0 6 12 16 Social insurance Social assistance Percentage reduction in Gini coefficent Latin America and the Caribbean Eastern Europe and Central Asia Asia (other) and Pacific Western Asia and Northern Africa Sub-Saharan Africa 4 10 14 2 8 18 13 Social protection and social progress and a 5 per cent increase among those in urban areas (Attanasio and others, 2005).
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Of 15 studies on the impact of social protection programmes on boys and girls, 12 reported a statistically significant impact for girls on at least one measure of school attendance (Bastagli and others, 2016). Positive results are achieved both through schemes that make transfers condi- tional on school attendance and medical check-ups as well as through those to which people are entitled without conditions (Baird and others, 2013; ILO, 2010).
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As meas- ured by levels of stunting, for instance, both types of scheme have similar effects on child nutrition (Manley, Gitter and Slavchevska, 2012). While the immediate impact of such schemes is well documented, their long- term effects are less obvious.
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There is little evidence, for instance, that cash and in- kind transfers result in improved knowledge, better test scores or, eventually, better employment opportunities (Araujo, Bosch and Schady, 2016; Filmer and Schady, 2014; Baez and Camacho, 2011; Schurmann, 2009).
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In Malawi, the positive effects of a tem- porary cash transfer scheme on levels of teen pregnancy, child marriage and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence disappeared two years after the beneficiar- ies stopped receiving the transfer (Baird, McIntosh and Özler, 2016). A conditional cash-transfer scheme in the same country resulted in some sustained improvement in educational attainment but not in HIV prevalence or employment.
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Nevertheless, the short-term gains observed in educational attainment and in health, even if not sustained beyond the duration of the programme, can have an impact on the well-being of beneficiaries, especially if good-quality services and labour market opportunities are made available.
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Aizer and others (2016) found that, in the United States, children who benefitted from the Mother’s Pension programme—a temporary cash-transfer scheme available between 1911 and 1935—were 50 per cent less likely to be underweight, had more years of education, higher earnings as adults and lived one year longer, on average, than children of families with comparable char- acteristics who did not benefit from the programme.16 There is evidence to suggest that, by keeping young people in school longer, for instance, social protection pro- grammes have helped to reduce the risk of HIV infection and the likelihood of early pregnancy among young women in countries such as Kenya and South Africa (Handa and others, 2015; Cluver and others, 2016; Pereira and Peterman, 2015).
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Attah and others (2016) also find evidence of a virtuous cycle between access to social protection, school attendance and increased self-esteem among beneficiaries. It is, however, important to note that the cash and in-kind transfer schemes on which recent impact evaluations are based constitute but one component of social pro- tection systems. Many of the schemes assessed are small-scale, time-bound projects that arguably have less impact than nationwide, universal programmes.
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Although the effects of larger programmes on human capital have not been assessed as systematically, it can be assumed that they also have a positive effect, insofar as they reduce people’s vulnera- bility to poverty. Health-care coverage, in particular, is directly linked to human capital formation. Measures that reduce the income insecurity of adults, including unemploy- ment protection, disability benefits and social pensions, also enhance children’s oppor- tunities.
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The effect of old-age pensions on children are discussed in chapter II. Regarding impacts on labour market participation and employment, the pros- pect that social protection may discourage labour supply among people of working age has informed social policy reforms in developed countries in the past decades.
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The proliferation of active labour market programmes, for instance, has been driven, at 16 For a summary of the long-term impact of various temporary cash-transfer schemes on beneficiaries in the United States see also Butcher (2017).
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14 Promoting Inclusion through Social Protection least in part, by concerns that the availability of unemployment benefits can discour- age people of working age from looking for work—even though such programmes also aim to facilitate the transition into new jobs and to upgrade skills. Conversely, it is argued that, by protecting incomes, spending and consumption, social protection can provide an economic stimulus and therefore promote labour demand.
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Cash trans- fers can also contribute to enhancing children’s future productive capacity and their employment prospects by improving educational attainment and skills development. Whether social protection promotes or discourages employment is hard to assess empirically, as it is difficult to isolate the impact of social protection measures from that of other economic and social factors affecting employment.
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A literature review by Bast- agli and others (2016) found that cash transfers had not had a significant impact on adult employment in more than half of the 74 studies reviewed. In studies that do report a sig- nificant effect, the majority find an increase in adult labour market participation and a decline in the prevalence of child labour.
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Other studies suggest that cash transfers lead to better employment opportunities for members of poor households because they free up time and allow for greater investment in job searching, particularly among women (Mathers and Slater, 2014; Samson and others, 2004; Burns, Keswell and Liebbrandt, 2005; UNDP, 2013; ILO, 2010).
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When they contribute to improvements in the produc- tive capacity of beneficiaries, by allowing them to save and make productive invest- ments, for instance, cash transfers also have a positive impact on earnings (Alderman and Yemtsov, 2013). Means-tested schemes can, however, create disincentives to work, for instance in cases where a rise in the beneficiary’s income leads to a cut in benefits.
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Recent studies have stressed the impact of social protection on broad social trends, including its potential to strengthen social cohesion (OECD, 2012; ILO 2010 and 2014a). Legal guarantees of social protection for all members of society promote a sense of belonging and social justice (Lindert, 2004).
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In South Africa, inclusion of the right to social security in the Constitution of 1996—itself an expression of the political commit- ment to greater equity—contributed to strengthening social cohesion (Devereux, 2011).
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However, systems consisting mainly of means-tested social assistance and social insurance programmes covering only workers in formal employment leave much of the population in developing countries—the so-called missing middle—without cov- erage and thereby pose a threat to democracy and social cohesion (de Laiglesia, 2011; OECD, 2012).
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The missing middle includes a large segment of workers in informal employment who, although they may be living above the extreme poverty line, are highly vulnerable to poverty and exclusion. Social protection schemes can also affect social cohesion in the community through their influence on relationships and trust.
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Beneficiaries of such schemes may interact more frequently, namely during travel to pay points or attendance at required meetings (in the case of conditional cash transfers), providing opportuni- ties to meet people and exchange information (Pavanello and others, 2016). Poorly targeted schemes with unclear selection criteria, however, can generate conflict and threaten cohesion if community members perceive the allocation of resources to be unfair.
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There is ample evidence of inaccurate selection processes causing frustration and even triggering protests and violence (Adato, 2000; Pavanello and others, 2016; Widjaja, 2009; Kidd, Gelders and Bailey-Athias, 2017). 3. Beyond social protection: the impact of fiscal policy Social protection programmes represent just one, albeit essential, element, of fiscal pol- icy.
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How policy affects poverty, inequality and other development objectives depends on the way in which the burden of taxation and public spending is distributed.
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Specifi- 15 Social protection and social progress cally, the extent of redistribution depends on how progressive the tax system is (direct income and property taxes are usually progressive, while indirect taxes such as sales or value-added taxes are regressive) and on the degree to which people living in poverty benefit from social protection transfers and public services. The positive effects of social protection programmes on poverty reduction can be undone by a regressive tax system.
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Fiscal policy has a significant redistributive impact in developed regions, with transfers having a larger equalizing effect than taxes (EUROMOD, 2017; United Nations, 2013a; OECD, 2011 and 2015a; Wang and Caminada, 2011).17 The combined effect of taxes and transfers, however, differs by country. In Finland, 34 per cent of the population would have been in relative poverty in 2015 in the absence of direct taxes and transfers.
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In fact, only 6.3 per cent of the population were in poverty that year, a difference of more than 27 percentage points. In the United States, by contrast, fiscal policy reduced relative poverty by less than 10 percentage points (from 26.7 to 16.8 per cent) in the same year (see figure I.2). Figure I.2 Proportion of the population living in relative poverty before and after taxes and transfers in 2014, selected countries Source: Author calculations based on OECD Income Distribution Database.
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Available from www.oecd.org/social/ income-distribution-database.htm (accessed 14 November 2017). Note: Relative poverty is defined as 50 per cent of the median household income. a Estimates are for 2015. b Relative poverty post-taxes and before transfers. Findings for developing regions are more mixed.
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https://www.un.org/development/desa/dspd/wp-content/uploads/sites/22/2018/07/Chapter-ISocial-protection-and-social-progress.pdf