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True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1096 | <br>
Outcome will be determined by the closing price reported by CNBC, using the 1Y graph (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=BTC%3D" target="_blank">CNBC</a>). The closing price can be found by hovering your cursor over the relevant date.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "More than $7,000" with a closing date of 31 May 2019. </p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-05-31T17:00:31.000Z", "created_at": "2019-01-11T16:16:51.275Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2489, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Less than $1,000 ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 283, "predictions_count": 922, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1096, "question_name": "What will be the closing price of Bitcoin on 31 May 2019, according to CNBC?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-06-03T16:47:15.406Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:05:29.441Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-05-31T17:00:31.000Z", "created_at": "2019-01-11T16:16:51.327Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2490, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between $1,000 and $3,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 283, "predictions_count": 922, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1096, "question_name": "What will be the closing price of Bitcoin on 31 May 2019, according to CNBC?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-06-03T16:45:45.076Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:05:31.128Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-05-31T17:00:31.000Z", "created_at": "2019-01-11T16:16:51.390Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2491, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than $3,000 but less than $5,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 283, "predictions_count": 922, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1096, "question_name": "What will be the closing price of Bitcoin on 31 May 2019, according to CNBC?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-06-03T16:44:23.875Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:05:32.238Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-05-31T17:00:31.000Z", "created_at": "2019-01-11T16:16:51.476Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2492, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between $5,000 and $7,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 283, "predictions_count": 922, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1096, "question_name": "What will be the closing price of Bitcoin on 31 May 2019, according to CNBC?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-06-03T16:43:06.974Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:05:32.963Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-05-31T17:00:31.000Z", "created_at": "2019-01-11T16:16:51.531Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2493, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than $7,000", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 283, "predictions_count": 922, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1096, "question_name": "What will be the closing price of Bitcoin on 31 May 2019, according to CNBC?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-06-03T16:41:37.382Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:05:33.688Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 957, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2019-05-26T09:55:41.616Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 3, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "98%", "description": "<br>\r\n\r\nOutcome will be determined by the closing price reported by CNBC, using the 1Y graph (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=BTC%3D\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>). The closing price can be found by hovering your cursor over the relevant date.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"More than $7,000\" with a closing date of 31 May 2019. </p><p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2019-05-30T06:59:29.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1096, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T03:00:59.887+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:58:25.302+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the closing price of Bitcoin on 31 May 2019, according to CNBC?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 922, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 283, "published_at": "2019-01-11T16:16:51.793Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-06-03T16:47:15.535Z", "scoring_end_time": "2019-05-29T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2019-01-11T10:00:29.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2019-01-11T18:00:29.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.970Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/687 | Recent elections in Germany have changed the make-up of the Bundestag (<a href = "http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/25/europe/merkel-german-election-coalition-choices/index.html"target="_blank">CNN</a>) and Angela Merkel's CDU party is searching for new partners to form a governing coalition (<a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/09/25/building-a-new-german-coalition-government-wont-be-easy-heres-why/"target="_blank">Washington Post</a>, <a href= "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-politics/climate-migration-disputes-cloud-german-coalition-talks-idUSKBN1CX0JT"target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href= "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-politics/german-parties-start-to-find-common-ground-in-coalition-talks-idUSKBN1CZ0XT"target="_blank">Reuters</a>). If no governing coalition is formed and a new election is held, the question will close as "None of the above."
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
2 February 2018: The HFC Challenge concluded, however GJ wants to honor the hard work and research forecasters completed during the question's initial duration, so we are reopening this IFP for forecasting. It will remain open until the next governing coalition of Germany is determined or a new election is called, whichever comes first. Any outcome not encompassed in the party combination options provided will resolve as "none of the above."
<hr>
This question closed as "e) none of the above" with an end date of 14 March 2018 (<a href = "http://www.dw.com/en/angela-merkel-elected-to-fourth-term-as-german-chancellor/a-42966453"target="_blank">Deutsche Welle</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-03-14T17:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-08T08:24:45.279Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1447, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "The Left Party and the Green Party, but not the FDP", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 275, "predictions_count": 705, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 687, "question_name": "Which parties, from among the Green Party, the FDP, and the Left, will be part of Germany's next governing coalition? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-03-15T15:59:04.115Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:34.875Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-03-14T17:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-08T08:24:45.298Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1448, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "The Left Party and the FDP, but not the Green Party", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 275, "predictions_count": 705, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 687, "question_name": "Which parties, from among the Green Party, the FDP, and the Left, will be part of Germany's next governing coalition? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-03-15T15:58:58.399Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:34.996Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-03-14T17:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-08T08:24:45.316Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1449, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "The Green Party and the FDP, but not the Left Party", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 275, "predictions_count": 705, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 687, "question_name": "Which parties, from among the Green Party, the FDP, and the Left, will be part of Germany's next governing coalition? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-03-15T15:58:53.015Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:35.096Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-03-14T17:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-08T08:24:45.336Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1450, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "The Left Party, the Green Party, and the FDP", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 275, "predictions_count": 705, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 687, "question_name": "Which parties, from among the Green Party, the FDP, and the Left, will be part of Germany's next governing coalition? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-03-15T15:58:47.454Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:35.205Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-03-14T17:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-08T08:24:45.355Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1451, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "None of the above", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 275, "predictions_count": 705, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 687, "question_name": "Which parties, from among the Green Party, the FDP, and the Left, will be part of Germany's next governing coalition? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-03-15T15:58:41.458Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:35.680Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 733, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-11-20T09:20:27.456Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 114, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "10%", "description": "Recent elections in Germany have changed the make-up of the Bundestag (<a href = \"http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/25/europe/merkel-german-election-coalition-choices/index.html\"target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>) and Angela Merkel's CDU party is searching for new partners to form a governing coalition (<a href = \"https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/09/25/building-a-new-german-coalition-government-wont-be-easy-heres-why/\"target=\"_blank\">Washington Post</a>, <a href= \"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-politics/climate-migration-disputes-cloud-german-coalition-talks-idUSKBN1CX0JT\"target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>, <a href= \"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-politics/german-parties-start-to-find-common-ground-in-coalition-talks-idUSKBN1CZ0XT\"target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>). If no governing coalition is formed and a new election is held, the question will close as \"None of the above.\" \r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n\r\n2 February 2018: The HFC Challenge concluded, however GJ wants to honor the hard work and research forecasters completed during the question's initial duration, so we are reopening this IFP for forecasting. It will remain open until the next governing coalition of Germany is determined or a new election is called, whichever comes first. Any outcome not encompassed in the party combination options provided will resolve as \"none of the above.\"\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nThis question closed as \"e) none of the above\" with an end date of 14 March 2018 (<a href = \"http://www.dw.com/en/angela-merkel-elected-to-fourth-term-as-german-chancellor/a-42966453\"target=\"_blank\">Deutsche Welle</a>).\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n", "ends_at": "2019-01-01T07:59:13.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 687, "image": null, "membership_id": 36637, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:43:26.288+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:41:13.695+00:00"}, "name": "Which parties, from among the Green Party, the FDP, and the Left, will be part of Germany's next governing coalition? ", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 705, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 275, "published_at": "2017-11-08T15:07:46.886Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-03-15T15:59:04.135Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-03-14T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-11-08T09:30:13.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-11-08T17:30:13.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/587 | This question will be resolved using data from the <a href="http://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=61015893" target="_blank">International Monetary Fund</a>, and can be found after ensuring the country of interest is selected from the Country drop down menu, and 'Consumer Price Index, All Items' is selected from the Indicator drop down menu. The relevant row is: '[Country of Interest], Consumer Price Index, All Items,' and the relevant column will be '2017 [Month of Interest].' Question will be resolved based on initially reported values expected to be published the first week of the following month.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
The UK's monthly Period-over-Period change in the consumer price index (CPI) for September 2017 was .29. This question closed as "c) More than .17 but less than .30," with and end date of 30 September.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-30T17:00:52.000Z", "created_at": "2017-09-06T16:22:40.845Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1222, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Less than .01", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 92, "predictions_count": 172, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 587, "question_name": "What will the monthly Period-over-Period change in the consumer price index (CPI) be for the United Kingdom in September 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-23T20:11:28.330Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:46.316Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-30T17:00:52.000Z", "created_at": "2017-09-06T16:22:41.028Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1223, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Between .01 and .17, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 92, "predictions_count": 172, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 587, "question_name": "What will the monthly Period-over-Period change in the consumer price index (CPI) be for the United Kingdom in September 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-23T20:11:24.663Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:46.860Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-30T17:00:52.000Z", "created_at": "2017-09-06T16:22:41.134Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1224, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "More than .17 but less than .30", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 92, "predictions_count": 172, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 587, "question_name": "What will the monthly Period-over-Period change in the consumer price index (CPI) be for the United Kingdom in September 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-23T20:11:21.662Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:47.247Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-30T17:00:52.000Z", "created_at": "2017-09-06T16:22:41.258Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1225, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Between .30 and .46, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 92, "predictions_count": 172, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 587, "question_name": "What will the monthly Period-over-Period change in the consumer price index (CPI) be for the United Kingdom in September 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-23T20:11:17.501Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:47.774Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-30T17:00:52.000Z", "created_at": "2017-09-06T16:22:41.388Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1226, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "More than .46", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 92, "predictions_count": 172, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 587, "question_name": "What will the monthly Period-over-Period change in the consumer price index (CPI) be for the United Kingdom in September 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-23T20:11:12.898Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:47.997Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 173, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-09-11T11:46:42.796Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 18, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "22%", "description": "This question will be resolved using data from the <a href=\"http://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=61015893\" target=\"_blank\">International Monetary Fund</a>, and can be found after ensuring the country of interest is selected from the Country drop down menu, and 'Consumer Price Index, All Items' is selected from the Indicator drop down menu. The relevant row is: '[Country of Interest], Consumer Price Index, All Items,' and the relevant column will be '2017 [Month of Interest].' Question will be resolved based on initially reported values expected to be published the first week of the following month.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nThe UK's monthly Period-over-Period change in the consumer price index (CPI) for September 2017 was .29. This question closed as \"c) More than .17 but less than .30,\" with and end date of 30 September.\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>", "ends_at": "2017-09-30T06:59:21.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 587, "image": null, "membership_id": 27345, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:37:33.061+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:36:54.074+00:00"}, "name": "What will the monthly Period-over-Period change in the consumer price index (CPI) be for the United Kingdom in September 2017?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 172, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 92, "published_at": "2017-09-06T16:22:42.004Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-23T20:11:28.373Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-09-29T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-09-06T09:30:21.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-09-06T16:30:21.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/703 | Temporary reopenings will not suffice (e.g., <a href = "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/17/saudi-arabia-open-border-qatar-pilgrims-attend-hajj"target="_blank">The Guardian</a>). On 5 June 2017, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE cut diplomatic relations with Qatar, embargoing goods, closing borders, and requiring Qatari citizens to leave their countries (<a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-40173757"target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "https://www.thecipherbrief.com/no-end-sight-gulf-blockade-nudges-qatar-closer-iran"target="_blank">The Cipher Brief</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as "Not before 1 August 2018" with an end date of 1 August 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-08-01T17:00:50.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-21T17:38:49.610Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1505, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Before 1 February 2018", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 599, "predictions_count": 1316, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 703, "question_name": "When will Saudi Arabia announce the reopening of its land border with Qatar?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-08-02T14:30:59.418Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:55:39.184Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-08-01T17:00:50.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-21T17:38:49.634Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1506, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 1 February and 30 April 2018, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 599, "predictions_count": 1316, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 703, "question_name": "When will Saudi Arabia announce the reopening of its land border with Qatar?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-08-02T14:30:29.852Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:55:39.679Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-08-01T17:00:50.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-21T17:38:49.660Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1507, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 1 May and 31 July 2018, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 599, "predictions_count": 1316, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 703, "question_name": "When will Saudi Arabia announce the reopening of its land border with Qatar?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-08-02T14:29:59.623Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:55:40.023Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-08-01T17:00:50.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-21T17:38:49.681Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1508, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Not before 1 August 2018", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 599, "predictions_count": 1316, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 703, "question_name": "When will Saudi Arabia announce the reopening of its land border with Qatar?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-08-02T14:29:28.047Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:55:40.562Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1333, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-11-21T18:29:50.257Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 253, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "Temporary reopenings will not suffice (e.g., <a href = \"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/17/saudi-arabia-open-border-qatar-pilgrims-attend-hajj\"target=\"_blank\">The Guardian</a>). On 5 June 2017, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE cut diplomatic relations with Qatar, embargoing goods, closing borders, and requiring Qatari citizens to leave their countries (<a href = \"http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-40173757\"target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>, <a href = \"https://www.thecipherbrief.com/no-end-sight-gulf-blockade-nudges-qatar-closer-iran\"target=\"_blank\">The Cipher Brief</a>).\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n\r\nThis question closed as \"Not before 1 August 2018\" with an end date of 1 August 2018.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n", "ends_at": "2018-10-01T18:59:00.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 703, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:45:59.085+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:42:24.333+00:00"}, "name": "When will Saudi Arabia announce the reopening of its land border with Qatar?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1316, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 599, "published_at": "2017-11-21T17:38:49.761Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-08-02T14:30:59.596Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-08-01T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-11-21T10:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-11-21T18:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.933Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/963 | On 6 March, the Department of Justice filed a lawsuit with the United States District Court for the Eastern District of California over three so-called "sanctuary laws" by the State of California, Assembly Bill 450, Senate Bill 54, and Assembly Bill 103 (<a href = "https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000161-fe3e-d513-a767-febf57c70002"target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href = "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/03/07/justice-department-sue-california-over-three-sanctuary-state-laws/401418002/"target="_blank">USA Today</a>, <a href = "http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article204188384.html"target="_blank">The Sacramento Bee</a>). A preliminary injunction granted that covers part of a law subject to the lawsuit will count as "yes" for that entire law.
<hr>
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
This question closed as <a href = "https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000164-6b90-d66b-a166-eb945c360001"target="_blank">"Yes, against Assembly Bill 450 only"</a> with an end date of 5 July, 2018
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-05T17:00:36.000Z", "created_at": "2018-06-06T15:32:52.611Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2171, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Yes, against Assembly Bill 450 only", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 29, "predictions_count": 69, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 963, "question_name": "In US v. California, will the District Court grant any preliminary injunctions against enforcement of California's sanctuary laws\"?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-09T17:15:01.335Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:24.616Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-05T17:00:36.000Z", "created_at": "2018-06-06T15:32:52.645Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2172, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Yes, against Senate Bill 54 only ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 29, "predictions_count": 69, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 963, "question_name": "In US v. California, will the District Court grant any preliminary injunctions against enforcement of California's sanctuary laws\"?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-09T17:15:00.471Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:26.379Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-05T17:00:36.000Z", "created_at": "2018-06-06T15:32:52.680Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2173, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Yes, against Assembly Bill 103 only ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 29, "predictions_count": 69, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 963, "question_name": "In US v. California, will the District Court grant any preliminary injunctions against enforcement of California's sanctuary laws\"?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-09T17:14:59.637Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:31.517Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-05T17:00:36.000Z", "created_at": "2018-06-06T15:32:52.723Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2174, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Yes, against two or more of the bills ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 29, "predictions_count": 69, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 963, "question_name": "In US v. California, will the District Court grant any preliminary injunctions against enforcement of California's sanctuary laws\"?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-09T17:14:58.716Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:36.869Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-05T17:00:36.000Z", "created_at": "2018-06-06T15:32:52.762Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2175, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "No", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 29, "predictions_count": 69, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 963, "question_name": "In US v. California, will the District Court grant any preliminary injunctions against enforcement of California's sanctuary laws\"?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-09T17:14:57.798Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:39.715Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 88, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "On 6 March, the Department of Justice filed a lawsuit with the United States District Court for the Eastern District of California over three so-called \"sanctuary laws\" by the State of California, Assembly Bill 450, Senate Bill 54, and Assembly Bill 103 (<a href = \"https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000161-fe3e-d513-a767-febf57c70002\"target=\"_blank\">Politico</a>, <a href = \"https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/03/07/justice-department-sue-california-over-three-sanctuary-state-laws/401418002/\"target=\"_blank\">USA Today</a>, <a href = \"http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article204188384.html\"target=\"_blank\">The Sacramento Bee</a>). A preliminary injunction granted that covers part of a law subject to the lawsuit will count as \"yes\" for that entire law.\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n\r\nThis question closed as <a href = \"https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000164-6b90-d66b-a166-eb945c360001\"target=\"_blank\">\"Yes, against Assembly Bill 450 only\"</a> with an end date of 5 July, 2018 \r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-08-01T06:59:45.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 963, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:52:40.758+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:52:27.291+00:00"}, "name": "In US v. California, will the District Court grant any preliminary injunctions against enforcement of California's sanctuary laws\"?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 69, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 29, "published_at": "2018-06-06T15:32:52.866Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-09T17:15:01.364Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-07-05T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-06-06T10:00:45.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-06-06T17:00:45.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.906Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/43 | Twitter's board of directors is working to choose its next permanent CEO (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-10/the-trouble-with-twitter-s-ceo-search , http://americasmarkets.usatoday.com/2015/09/08/all-eyes-on-twitter-ceo-search/ ). | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2015-10-05T18:26:44.000Z", "created_at": "2015-09-21T12:50:00.304Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 69, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 88, "predictions_count": 154, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 43, "question_name": "Who will Twitter name as their permanent CEO before the end of the year?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2015-10-05T18:30:34.708Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:44:18.559Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2015-10-05T18:26:44.000Z", "created_at": "2015-09-21T12:50:36.424Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 70, "membership_id": 6, "name": "No one will be named CEO before the end of the year", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 88, "predictions_count": 154, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 43, "question_name": "Who will Twitter name as their permanent CEO before the end of the year?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2015-10-05T18:30:34.708Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:44:19.279Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2015-10-05T18:26:44.000Z", "created_at": "2015-09-21T12:48:51.876Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 66, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Jack Dorsey", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 88, "predictions_count": 154, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 43, "question_name": "Who will Twitter name as their permanent CEO before the end of the year?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2015-10-05T18:30:34.708Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:44:16.930Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2015-10-05T18:26:44.000Z", "created_at": "2015-09-21T12:49:15.630Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 67, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Adam Bain", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 88, "predictions_count": 154, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 43, "question_name": "Who will Twitter name as their permanent CEO before the end of the year?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2015-10-05T18:30:34.708Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:44:17.395Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2015-10-05T18:26:44.000Z", "created_at": "2015-09-21T12:49:41.723Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 68, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Anthony Noto", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 88, "predictions_count": 154, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 43, "question_name": "Who will Twitter name as their permanent CEO before the end of the year?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2015-10-05T18:30:34.708Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:44:17.921Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 164, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2015-09-29T00:48:36.057Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 7, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "50%", "description": "Twitter's board of directors is working to choose its next permanent CEO (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-10/the-trouble-with-twitter-s-ceo-search , http://americasmarkets.usatoday.com/2015/09/08/all-eyes-on-twitter-ceo-search/ ).", "ends_at": "2016-01-01T04:59:46.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 43, "image": null, "membership_id": 6, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T01:47:19.357+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T01:46:20.533+00:00"}, "name": "Who will Twitter name as their permanent CEO before the end of the year?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 154, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 88, "published_at": "2015-09-21T12:55:37.556Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2015-10-05T18:30:34.753Z", "scoring_end_time": "2015-10-05T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2015-09-21T13:00:46.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2015-09-21T20:00:46.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.822Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/778 | This question will be resolved using the daily rate reported by Federal Reserve Economic Data (<a href = "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXKOUS"target="_blank">FRED</a>) for the date of interest. Question will be suspended the day before the date of interest and resolved when the data is released, usually on Monday of the following week.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-12T04:59:20.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:58:46.392Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1699, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Less than 1,085", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 35, "predictions_count": 112, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 778, "question_name": "What will be the South Korean Won to one U.S. Dollar daily exchange rate on 11 December 2017?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-19T21:07:37.600Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:56:31.176Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-12T04:59:20.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:58:46.507Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1700, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 1,085 and 1,090, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 35, "predictions_count": 112, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 778, "question_name": "What will be the South Korean Won to one U.S. Dollar daily exchange rate on 11 December 2017?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-19T21:07:47.608Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:56:31.896Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-12T04:59:20.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:58:46.603Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1701, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 1,090 but less than 1,095", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 35, "predictions_count": 112, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 778, "question_name": "What will be the South Korean Won to one U.S. Dollar daily exchange rate on 11 December 2017?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-19T21:07:27.214Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:56:32.331Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-12T04:59:20.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:58:46.791Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1702, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 1,095 and 1,100, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 35, "predictions_count": 112, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 778, "question_name": "What will be the South Korean Won to one U.S. Dollar daily exchange rate on 11 December 2017?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-19T21:07:16.807Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:56:33.336Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-12T04:59:20.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:58:46.926Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1703, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 1,100", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 35, "predictions_count": 112, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 778, "question_name": "What will be the South Korean Won to one U.S. Dollar daily exchange rate on 11 December 2017?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-19T21:07:03.206Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:56:33.887Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 112, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-12-08T15:18:40.291Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 2, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "82%", "description": "This question will be resolved using the daily rate reported by Federal Reserve Economic Data (<a href = \"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXKOUS\"target=\"_blank\">FRED</a>) for the date of interest. Question will be suspended the day before the date of interest and resolved when the data is released, usually on Monday of the following week.\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n", "ends_at": "2017-12-11T04:59:06.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 778, "image": null, "membership_id": 36637, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:44:12.205+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:43:53.255+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the South Korean Won to one U.S. Dollar daily exchange rate on 11 December 2017?\r\n", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 112, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 35, "published_at": "2017-11-29T16:03:17.821Z", "resolution_notes": ["https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXKOUS\r\n1,092.03"], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-19T21:07:47.709Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-12-10T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-11-29T09:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-11-29T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/929 | The list of media outlets designated as foreign agents can be found <a href="http://minjust.ru/ru/deyatelnost-v-sfere-nekommercheskih-organizaciy/reestr-inostrannyh-sredstv-massovoy-informacii" target="_blank">here</a>. In November 2017, Russia passed a law which allows the government to designate media outlets receiving funding from abroad as "foreign agents" and subject designated entities to additional requirements or sanctions (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-usa-media-restrictions/russias-putin-signs-foreign-agents-media-law-idUSKBN1DP0I2" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). The following month, nine entities were designated as foreign agents, including Voice of America and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-usa-media-restrictions/russia-designates-radio-free-europe-and-voice-of-america-as-foreign-agents-idUSKBN1DZ0MP" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). The designation of individual journalists as foreign agents will not count (e.g., <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-foreign-agent-bill-advances-duma/28971473.html" target="_blank">Radio Free Europe</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "8 to 10, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 June 2019. </p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-06-01T17:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2018-04-11T16:35:45.647Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2040, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Less than 3", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 186, "predictions_count": 478, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 929, "question_name": "How many media outlets will be on the Russian Ministry of Justice's list of media designated as foreign agents on 1 June 2019? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-06-03T15:56:59.921Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:21.025Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-06-01T17:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2018-04-11T16:35:45.679Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2041, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "3 to 7, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 186, "predictions_count": 478, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 929, "question_name": "How many media outlets will be on the Russian Ministry of Justice's list of media designated as foreign agents on 1 June 2019? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-06-03T15:57:06.292Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:21.394Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-06-01T17:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2018-04-11T16:35:45.715Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2042, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "8 to 10, inclusive ", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 186, "predictions_count": 478, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 929, "question_name": "How many media outlets will be on the Russian Ministry of Justice's list of media designated as foreign agents on 1 June 2019? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-06-03T15:57:14.367Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:21.845Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-06-01T17:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2018-04-11T16:35:45.754Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2043, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "11 to 20, inclusive ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 186, "predictions_count": 478, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 929, "question_name": "How many media outlets will be on the Russian Ministry of Justice's list of media designated as foreign agents on 1 June 2019? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-06-03T15:56:46.195Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:22.881Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-06-01T17:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2018-04-11T16:35:45.806Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2044, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 20", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 186, "predictions_count": 478, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 929, "question_name": "How many media outlets will be on the Russian Ministry of Justice's list of media designated as foreign agents on 1 June 2019? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-06-03T15:56:53.668Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:23.319Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 489, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-07-24T19:03:03.572Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 311, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "25%", "description": "The list of media outlets designated as foreign agents can be found <a href=\"http://minjust.ru/ru/deyatelnost-v-sfere-nekommercheskih-organizaciy/reestr-inostrannyh-sredstv-massovoy-informacii\" target=\"_blank\">here</a>. In November 2017, Russia passed a law which allows the government to designate media outlets receiving funding from abroad as \"foreign agents\" and subject designated entities to additional requirements or sanctions (<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-usa-media-restrictions/russias-putin-signs-foreign-agents-media-law-idUSKBN1DP0I2\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>). The following month, nine entities were designated as foreign agents, including Voice of America and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-usa-media-restrictions/russia-designates-radio-free-europe-and-voice-of-america-as-foreign-agents-idUSKBN1DZ0MP\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>). The designation of individual journalists as foreign agents will not count (e.g., <a href=\"https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-foreign-agent-bill-advances-duma/28971473.html\" target=\"_blank\">Radio Free Europe</a>). \r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"8 to 10, inclusive\" with a closing date of 1 June 2019. </p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p>\r\n", "ends_at": "2019-06-01T06:59:30.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 929, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:51:23.186+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:49:49.217+00:00"}, "name": "How many media outlets will be on the Russian Ministry of Justice's list of media designated as foreign agents on 1 June 2019? ", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 478, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 186, "published_at": "2018-04-11T16:35:45.960Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-06-03T15:57:14.386Z", "scoring_end_time": "2019-05-31T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-04-11T10:00:30.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-04-11T17:00:30.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.963Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/673 | This question will be resolved using Nielsen's Fast National Ratings data as reported on <a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings"target="_blank">The Futon Critic</a> in the "Sunday's Broadcast Ratings" summary of 29 October 2017.
Fast National Ratings are typically reported on the Monday following Sunday programming. This season's Fast National viewership numbers for Sunday Night Football are as follows:
10 September 2017: 21.559 million viewers (<a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/09/12/sundays-broadcast-ratings-sunday-night-football-begins-its-reign-for-nbc-978110/broadcast_20170910/"target="_blank">The Futon Critic</a>)
17 September 2017: 18.460 million viewers (<a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/09/18/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nfl-on-nbc-fox-overshadow-emmys-on-cbs-414310/broadcast_20170917/"target="_blank">The Futon Critic</a>)
24 September 2017: 14.537 million viewers (<a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/09/25/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nbc-sunday-night-football-top-competition-194402/broadcast_20170924/"target="_blank">The Futon Critic</a>)
1 October 2017: 14.009 million viewers (<a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/10/02/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nbc-sunday-night-football-remain-on-top-993401/broadcast_20171001/"target="_blank">The Futon Critic</a>)
8 October 2017: 14.853 million viewers (<a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/10/09/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nfl-gives-boost-to-nbc-fox-799001/broadcast_20171008/target="_blank">The Futon Critic</a>)
15 October 2017: 14.423 million viewers (<a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/10/16/sundays-broadcast-ratings-sunday-night-football-powers-another-nbc-victory-896503/broadcast_20171015/"target="_blank">The Futon Critic</a>)
22 October 2017: 16.741 million viewers (<a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/10/23/sundays-broadcast-ratings-another-week-another-sunday-night-football-victory-105011/broadcast_20171022/"target="_blank">The Futon Critic</a>)
NOTE: This is an experimental short-term question intended to serve as 'forecasting fodder.' The idea is to give forecasters a way to get scored quickly on questions that demand difficult, multifaceted analysis. Sunday Night Football viewership in any given week may be influenced by long-term trends (e.g. a move to streaming services), or circumstances specific to game day (who is playing, what competing programming will air), among other factors.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
According to the <a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/10/30/sundays-broadcast-ratings-fox-pulls-in-front-with-nfl-overrun-world-series-594202/broadcast_20171029/"target="_blank">FutonCritic</a> SNF viewership was 12.666 million. This question closed a "a) Fewer than 14.5 million," with and end date of 30 October 2017.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-30T17:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-27T15:49:56.822Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1414, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Fewer than 14.5 million", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 30, "predictions_count": 39, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 673, "question_name": "How many viewers will tune in to watch Sunday Night Football on 29 October 2017? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-01T13:46:53.524Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:31.198Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-30T17:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-27T15:49:56.869Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1415, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 14.5 million and 15 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 30, "predictions_count": 39, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 673, "question_name": "How many viewers will tune in to watch Sunday Night Football on 29 October 2017? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-01T13:46:52.880Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:31.330Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-30T17:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-27T15:49:56.903Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1416, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 15 million but less than 15.5 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 30, "predictions_count": 39, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 673, "question_name": "How many viewers will tune in to watch Sunday Night Football on 29 October 2017? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-01T13:46:52.245Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:31.466Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-30T17:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-27T15:49:56.926Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1417, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 15.5 million and 16 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 30, "predictions_count": 39, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 673, "question_name": "How many viewers will tune in to watch Sunday Night Football on 29 October 2017? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-01T13:46:51.602Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:31.587Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-30T17:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-27T15:49:56.953Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1418, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 16 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 30, "predictions_count": 39, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 673, "question_name": "How many viewers will tune in to watch Sunday Night Football on 29 October 2017? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-01T13:46:51.049Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:31.693Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 50, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "This question will be resolved using Nielsen's Fast National Ratings data as reported on <a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings\"target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic</a> in the \"Sunday's Broadcast Ratings\" summary of 29 October 2017. \r\n\r\nFast National Ratings are typically reported on the Monday following Sunday programming. This season's Fast National viewership numbers for Sunday Night Football are as follows: \r\n\r\n10 September 2017: 21.559 million viewers (<a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/09/12/sundays-broadcast-ratings-sunday-night-football-begins-its-reign-for-nbc-978110/broadcast_20170910/\"target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic</a>)\r\n\r\n17 September 2017: 18.460 million viewers (<a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/09/18/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nfl-on-nbc-fox-overshadow-emmys-on-cbs-414310/broadcast_20170917/\"target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic</a>)\r\n \r\n24 September 2017: 14.537 million viewers (<a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/09/25/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nbc-sunday-night-football-top-competition-194402/broadcast_20170924/\"target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic</a>)\r\n\r\n1 October 2017: 14.009 million viewers (<a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/10/02/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nbc-sunday-night-football-remain-on-top-993401/broadcast_20171001/\"target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic</a>)\r\n \r\n8 October 2017: 14.853 million viewers (<a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/10/09/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nfl-gives-boost-to-nbc-fox-799001/broadcast_20171008/target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic</a>)\r\n\r\n15 October 2017: 14.423 million viewers (<a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/10/16/sundays-broadcast-ratings-sunday-night-football-powers-another-nbc-victory-896503/broadcast_20171015/\"target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic</a>)\r\n\r\n22 October 2017: 16.741 million viewers (<a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/10/23/sundays-broadcast-ratings-another-week-another-sunday-night-football-victory-105011/broadcast_20171022/\"target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic</a>)\r\n\r\nNOTE: This is an experimental short-term question intended to serve as 'forecasting fodder.' The idea is to give forecasters a way to get scored quickly on questions that demand difficult, multifaceted analysis. Sunday Night Football viewership in any given week may be influenced by long-term trends (e.g. a move to streaming services), or circumstances specific to game day (who is playing, what competing programming will air), among other factors. \r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nAccording to the <a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/10/30/sundays-broadcast-ratings-fox-pulls-in-front-with-nfl-overrun-world-series-594202/broadcast_20171029/\"target=\"_blank\">FutonCritic</a> SNF viewership was 12.666 million. This question closed a \"a) Fewer than 14.5 million,\" with and end date of 30 October 2017.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>", "ends_at": "2017-10-30T06:59:14.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 673, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:40:31.392+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:40:20.280+00:00"}, "name": "How many viewers will tune in to watch Sunday Night Football on 29 October 2017? ", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 39, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 30, "published_at": "2017-10-27T15:49:57.064Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-01T13:46:53.539Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-10-29T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-10-27T10:00:14.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-10-27T17:00:14.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.863Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1095 | Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan have become known as the four "Asian Tigers" (<a href="https://www.idealsvdr.com/blog/the-four-asian-tigers/" target="_blank">iDeals Virtual Data Room</a>, <a href="https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2074773/rise-and-demise-asias-four-little-dragons" target="_blank">South China Morning Post</a>, <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/four-asian-tigers.asp" target="_blank">Investopedia</a>). Outcome will be determined using data from Bloomberg, by dividing the end-of-day closing values for 28 June 2019 by the end-of-day closing values for 10 January 2019, which were:
Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/HSI:IND" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>): 26,521.43
Singapore's Straits Times Index (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/FSSTI:IND" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>): 3,183.51
South Korea's KOSPI (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/KOSPI:IND" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>): 2,063.28
Taiwan's Stock Exchange Weighted Index (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/TWSE:IND" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>): 9,720.69
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub><p></p><hr><p>The question closed 'Taiwan's Stock Exchange Weighted Index' with a closing date of 28 June 2019. </p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-06-28T17:00:48.000Z", "created_at": "2019-01-11T16:15:05.513Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2485, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 213, "predictions_count": 644, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1095, "question_name": "Which major stock exchange index among the four \"Asian Tiger\" economies will perform best between 10 January 2019 and 28 June 2019?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-07-01T14:22:47.013Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:05:25.881Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-06-28T17:00:48.000Z", "created_at": "2019-01-11T16:15:05.563Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2486, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Singapore's Straits Times Index", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 213, "predictions_count": 644, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1095, "question_name": "Which major stock exchange index among the four \"Asian Tiger\" economies will perform best between 10 January 2019 and 28 June 2019?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-07-01T14:22:37.352Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:05:26.570Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-06-28T17:00:48.000Z", "created_at": "2019-01-11T16:15:05.611Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2487, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "South Korea's KOSPI", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 213, "predictions_count": 644, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1095, "question_name": "Which major stock exchange index among the four \"Asian Tiger\" economies will perform best between 10 January 2019 and 28 June 2019?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-07-01T14:22:23.678Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:05:27.334Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-06-28T17:00:48.000Z", "created_at": "2019-01-11T16:15:05.660Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2488, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Taiwan's Stock Exchange Weighted Index", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 213, "predictions_count": 644, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1095, "question_name": "Which major stock exchange index among the four \"Asian Tiger\" economies will perform best between 10 January 2019 and 28 June 2019?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-07-01T14:22:14.534Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:05:28.395Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 687, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2019-06-06T04:45:53.075Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 22, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "87%", "description": "Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan have become known as the four \"Asian Tigers\" (<a href=\"https://www.idealsvdr.com/blog/the-four-asian-tigers/\" target=\"_blank\">iDeals Virtual Data Room</a>, <a href=\"https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2074773/rise-and-demise-asias-four-little-dragons\" target=\"_blank\">South China Morning Post</a>, <a href=\"https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/four-asian-tigers.asp\" target=\"_blank\">Investopedia</a>). Outcome will be determined using data from Bloomberg, by dividing the end-of-day closing values for 28 June 2019 by the end-of-day closing values for 10 January 2019, which were:\r\nHong Kong's Hang Seng Index (<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/HSI:IND\" target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>): 26,521.43\r\nSingapore's Straits Times Index (<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/FSSTI:IND\" target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>): 3,183.51\r\nSouth Korea's KOSPI (<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/KOSPI:IND\" target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>): 2,063.28\r\nTaiwan's Stock Exchange Weighted Index (<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/TWSE:IND\" target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>): 9,720.69\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub><p></p><hr><p>The question closed 'Taiwan's Stock Exchange Weighted Index' with a closing date of 28 June 2019. </p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p>\r\n\r\n", "ends_at": "2019-06-28T06:59:32.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1095, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:59:48.566+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:58:19.405+00:00"}, "name": "Which major stock exchange index among the four \"Asian Tiger\" economies will perform best between 10 January 2019 and 28 June 2019?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 644, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 213, "published_at": "2019-01-11T16:15:05.814Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-07-01T14:22:47.035Z", "scoring_end_time": "2019-06-27T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2019-01-11T10:00:32.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2019-01-11T18:00:32.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.970Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/159 | This question was closed on 14 November with the correct answer 'Republicans' and an end date of 8 November. The Republicans maintained their majority in the Senate.
Thirty-four seats are up for election this year (<a href = "http://www.wsj.com/articles/other-key-2016-battle-control-of-the-senate-1441323752" target = "_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>, <a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/battle-over-scalias-replacement-already-spilling-into-senate-races/2016/02/15/a36c9972-d414-11e5-be55-2cc3c1e4b76b_story.html" target = "_blank">Washington Post 1</a>, <a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/10-senate-races-most-likely-to-switch-parties-in-2016-elections/2015/06/07/d9215fbc-0d13-11e5-9726-49d6fa26a8c6_story.html" target = "_blank">Washington Post 2</a>). | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-11-08T18:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2016-03-11T17:43:29.894Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 305, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Democrats", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 844, "predictions_count": 2531, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 159, "question_name": "Which party will control the US Senate after the November 2016 election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-11-14T14:57:47.596Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:47:07.070Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-11-08T18:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2016-03-11T17:43:40.970Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 306, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Republicans", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 844, "predictions_count": 2531, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 159, "question_name": "Which party will control the US Senate after the November 2016 election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-11-14T14:58:57.079Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:47:07.471Z"}], "answers_count": 2, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 2624, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "This question was closed on 14 November with the correct answer 'Republicans' and an end date of 8 November. The Republicans maintained their majority in the Senate. \r\n\r\nThirty-four seats are up for election this year (<a href = \"http://www.wsj.com/articles/other-key-2016-battle-control-of-the-senate-1441323752\" target = \"_blank\">Wall Street Journal</a>, <a href = \"https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/battle-over-scalias-replacement-already-spilling-into-senate-races/2016/02/15/a36c9972-d414-11e5-be55-2cc3c1e4b76b_story.html\" target = \"_blank\">Washington Post 1</a>, <a href = \"https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/10-senate-races-most-likely-to-switch-parties-in-2016-elections/2015/06/07/d9215fbc-0d13-11e5-9726-49d6fa26a8c6_story.html\" target = \"_blank\">Washington Post 2</a>).", "ends_at": "2016-11-08T07:59:44.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 159, "image": null, "membership_id": 6, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:01:19.613+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T01:58:51.590+00:00"}, "name": "Which party will control the US Senate after the November 2016 election?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 2531, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 844, "published_at": "2016-03-11T17:44:33.143Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-11-14T14:58:57.092Z", "scoring_end_time": "2016-11-07T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-03-11T10:00:44.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-03-11T18:00:44.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.840Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/684 | The WHO has reported that a cholera outbreak in Yemen has surged since the end of April (<a href = "https://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFKCN1BG1EP"target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "https://www.ft.com/content/33a695cc-9162-11e7-a9e6-11d2f0ebb7f0"target="_blank">Financial Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/29/health/cholera-outbreak-unrest-yemen-congo-bangladesh/index.html"target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href = "https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2017/oct/12/yemen-cholera-outbreak-worst-in-history-1-million-cases-by-end-of-year"target="_blank">The Guardian</a>). Outcome will be determined by data from the <a href = "https://data.humdata.org/dataset/yemen-cholera-outbreak-daily-epidemiology-update"target="_blank">Humanitarian Data Exchange (HDX)</a>, which provides a cumulative count of Yemen's cholera deaths since 27 April 2017, using WHO data. The relevant data can be found by downloading the "Yemen Cholera Outbreak Epidemiology Data," looking at the most recent entry in the "Deaths" column of the "Data_Country_Level" tab. If HDX stops tracking cholera cases in Yemen, the question will resolve based on the final available HDX numbers.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
As of 28 December 2017, the most recent Humanitarian Data Exchange record for cholera deaths in Yemen reflected 2,219 deaths. This question closed as "less than 2,300" with and end date of 29 December.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-28T18:00:42.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-07T17:09:51.560Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1441, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Less than 2,300", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 71, "predictions_count": 192, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 684, "question_name": "As of 28 December 2017, how many cholera deaths will the Humanitarian Data Exchange record in Yemen?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-02T16:07:02.714Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:34.295Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-28T18:00:42.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-07T17:09:51.590Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1442, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 2,300 and 2,500, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 71, "predictions_count": 192, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 684, "question_name": "As of 28 December 2017, how many cholera deaths will the Humanitarian Data Exchange record in Yemen?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-02T16:06:58.390Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:34.438Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-28T18:00:42.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-07T17:09:51.615Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1443, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 2,500 but less than 3,000 ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 71, "predictions_count": 192, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 684, "question_name": "As of 28 December 2017, how many cholera deaths will the Humanitarian Data Exchange record in Yemen?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-02T16:06:56.735Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:34.520Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-28T18:00:42.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-07T17:09:51.635Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1444, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "3,000 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 71, "predictions_count": 192, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 684, "question_name": "As of 28 December 2017, how many cholera deaths will the Humanitarian Data Exchange record in Yemen?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-02T16:07:00.407Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:34.617Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 197, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-11-07T23:54:47.945Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 51, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "The WHO has reported that a cholera outbreak in Yemen has surged since the end of April (<a href = \"https://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFKCN1BG1EP\"target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>, <a href = \"https://www.ft.com/content/33a695cc-9162-11e7-a9e6-11d2f0ebb7f0\"target=\"_blank\">Financial Times</a>, <a href = \"http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/29/health/cholera-outbreak-unrest-yemen-congo-bangladesh/index.html\"target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>, <a href = \"https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2017/oct/12/yemen-cholera-outbreak-worst-in-history-1-million-cases-by-end-of-year\"target=\"_blank\">The Guardian</a>). Outcome will be determined by data from the <a href = \"https://data.humdata.org/dataset/yemen-cholera-outbreak-daily-epidemiology-update\"target=\"_blank\">Humanitarian Data Exchange (HDX)</a>, which provides a cumulative count of Yemen's cholera deaths since 27 April 2017, using WHO data. The relevant data can be found by downloading the \"Yemen Cholera Outbreak Epidemiology Data,\" looking at the most recent entry in the \"Deaths\" column of the \"Data_Country_Level\" tab. If HDX stops tracking cholera cases in Yemen, the question will resolve based on the final available HDX numbers.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n\r\nAs of 28 December 2017, the most recent Humanitarian Data Exchange record for cholera deaths in Yemen reflected 2,219 deaths. This question closed as \"less than 2,300\" with and end date of 29 December.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n", "ends_at": "2017-12-29T07:59:28.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 684, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:41:28.959+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:41:00.209+00:00"}, "name": "As of 28 December 2017, how many cholera deaths will the Humanitarian Data Exchange record in Yemen?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 192, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 71, "published_at": "2017-11-07T17:09:51.695Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-02T16:07:02.731Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-12-28T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-11-07T10:00:28.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-11-07T18:00:28.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.869Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/966 | Leading tech companies have seen rapid increases in market capitalization (<a href = "https://www.ft.com/content/9d40d6ec-5f6a-11e8-9334-2218e7146b04"target="_blank">Financial Times</a>, <a href = "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-apple-stock-trillion-race/apple-is-almost-a-1-trillion-company-but-watch-out-for-amazon-idUSKBN1IC257"target="_blank">Reuters</a>). Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day "Market Cap" reported by Bloomberg for Apple (<a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AAPL:US"target="_blank">AAPL</a>), Amazon (<a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AMZN:US"target="_blank">AMZN</a>), Alphabet (<a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GOOGL:US"target="_blank">GOOGL</a>), and Microsoft (<a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/MSFT:US"target="_blank">MSFT</a>). If two or more companies reach an end-of-day market capitalization of $1 trillion on the same day, the question will resolve on the company with the higher market capitalization.
<hr>
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as <a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AAPL:US"target="_blank">"Apple"</a> with an end date of 2 August 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-08-02T17:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2018-06-20T15:32:06.983Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2178, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Apple", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 159, "predictions_count": 380, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 966, "question_name": "Before 1 January 2019, which company from among Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft will be the first to reach an end-of-day market capitalization of $1 trillion?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-08-06T16:26:52.627Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:43.254Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-08-02T17:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2018-06-20T15:32:07.013Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2179, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Amazon", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 159, "predictions_count": 380, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 966, "question_name": "Before 1 January 2019, which company from among Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft will be the first to reach an end-of-day market capitalization of $1 trillion?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-08-06T16:26:47.928Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:43.710Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-08-02T17:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2018-06-20T15:32:07.054Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2180, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Alphabet", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 159, "predictions_count": 380, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 966, "question_name": "Before 1 January 2019, which company from among Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft will be the first to reach an end-of-day market capitalization of $1 trillion?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-08-06T16:26:43.481Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:44.114Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-08-02T17:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2018-06-20T15:32:07.092Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2181, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Microsoft", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 159, "predictions_count": 380, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 966, "question_name": "Before 1 January 2019, which company from among Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft will be the first to reach an end-of-day market capitalization of $1 trillion?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-08-06T16:26:38.124Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:44.631Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-08-02T17:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2018-06-20T15:32:07.128Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2182, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "None of the above", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 159, "predictions_count": 380, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 966, "question_name": "Before 1 January 2019, which company from among Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft will be the first to reach an end-of-day market capitalization of $1 trillion?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-08-06T16:26:32.593Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:44.898Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 432, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-07-13T15:22:26.411Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 20, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "53%", "description": "Leading tech companies have seen rapid increases in market capitalization (<a href = \"https://www.ft.com/content/9d40d6ec-5f6a-11e8-9334-2218e7146b04\"target=\"_blank\">Financial Times</a>, <a href = \"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-apple-stock-trillion-race/apple-is-almost-a-1-trillion-company-but-watch-out-for-amazon-idUSKBN1IC257\"target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>).\u00a0Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day \"Market Cap\" reported by Bloomberg for Apple (<a href = \"https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AAPL:US\"target=\"_blank\">AAPL</a>), Amazon (<a href = \"https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AMZN:US\"target=\"_blank\">AMZN</a>), Alphabet (<a href = \"https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GOOGL:US\"target=\"_blank\">GOOGL</a>), and Microsoft (<a href = \"https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/MSFT:US\"target=\"_blank\">MSFT</a>).\u00a0 If two or more companies reach an end-of-day market capitalization of $1 trillion on the same day, the question will resolve on the company with the higher market capitalization.\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n\r\nThis question closed as <a href = \"https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AAPL:US\"target=\"_blank\">\"Apple\"</a> with an end date of 2 August 2018.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n", "ends_at": "2019-01-01T07:59:16.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 966, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:53:53.874+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:52:38.750+00:00"}, "name": "Before 1 January 2019, which company from among Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft will be the first to reach an end-of-day market capitalization of $1 trillion?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 380, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 159, "published_at": "2018-06-20T15:32:07.276Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-08-06T16:26:52.660Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-08-02T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-06-20T10:00:16.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-06-20T17:00:16.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.943Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/283 | This question was closed on "The Sellout" with an end date of 25 October 2016. The Sellout by Paul Beatty won the Man Booker award (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/26/business/media/paul-beatty-wins-man-booker-prize-with-the-sellout.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href="http://themanbookerprize.com/news/sellout-wins-2016-man-booker-prize" target="_blank">The Man Booker Prize</a>).
The winner of the Man Booker prize will be announced on 25 October 2016 (<a href="http://themanbookerprize.com/fiction" target="_blank">The Man Booker Prize</a>).
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<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/253" target="_blank">Which show will win the Emmy for "Outstanding Drama Series"?</a> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-10-25T17:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2016-09-16T16:07:56.054Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 546, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "The Sellout by Paul Beatty", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 37, "predictions_count": 114, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 283, "question_name": "Which book will win the 2016 Man Booker Prize?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-10-26T14:42:25.707Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:08.363Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-10-25T17:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2016-09-16T16:07:56.106Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 547, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Hot Milk by Deborah Levy", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 37, "predictions_count": 114, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 283, "question_name": "Which book will win the 2016 Man Booker Prize?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-10-26T14:42:30.819Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:08.713Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-10-25T17:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2016-09-16T16:07:56.143Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 548, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "His Bloody Project by Graeme Macrae Burnet", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 37, "predictions_count": 114, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 283, "question_name": "Which book will win the 2016 Man Booker Prize?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-10-26T14:42:18.059Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:08.968Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-10-25T17:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2016-09-16T16:07:56.197Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 549, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Eileen by Ottessa Moshfegh", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 37, "predictions_count": 114, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 283, "question_name": "Which book will win the 2016 Man Booker Prize?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-10-26T14:42:21.984Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:09.222Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-10-25T17:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2016-09-16T16:07:56.255Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 550, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "All That Man Is by David Szalay", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 37, "predictions_count": 114, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 283, "question_name": "Which book will win the 2016 Man Booker Prize?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-10-26T14:42:35.374Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:09.588Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-10-25T17:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2016-09-16T16:07:56.343Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 551, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Do Not Say We Have Nothing by Madeleine Thien", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 37, "predictions_count": 114, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 283, "question_name": "Which book will win the 2016 Man Booker Prize?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-10-26T14:42:14.551Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:09.873Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 133, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "This question was closed on \"The Sellout\" with an end date of 25 October 2016. The Sellout by Paul Beatty won the Man Booker award (<a href=\"http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/26/business/media/paul-beatty-wins-man-booker-prize-with-the-sellout.html\" target=\"_blank\">NY Times</a>, <a href=\"http://themanbookerprize.com/news/sellout-wins-2016-man-booker-prize\" target=\"_blank\">The Man Booker Prize</a>).\r\n\r\nThe winner of the Man Booker prize will be announced on 25 October 2016 (<a href=\"http://themanbookerprize.com/fiction\" target=\"_blank\">The Man Booker Prize</a>).\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/223\" target=\"_blank\">Will SpaceX launch the Falcon Heavy rocket into low earth orbit before 1 March 2017?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/276\" target=\"_blank\">Who will win the World Series?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/253\" target=\"_blank\">Which show will win the Emmy for \"Outstanding Drama Series\"?</a>", "ends_at": "2016-10-25T06:59:53.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 283, "image": null, "membership_id": 27345, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:12:52.537+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:12:30.648+00:00"}, "name": "Which book will win the 2016 Man Booker Prize?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 114, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 37, "published_at": "2016-09-16T16:07:56.454Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-10-26T14:42:35.459Z", "scoring_end_time": "2016-10-24T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-09-16T10:00:53.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-09-16T17:00:53.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.822Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1043 | After neither candidate won more than 50% of the vote in the general election (Cindy Hyde-Smith won 41.5% and Mike Espy won 40.6%), a runoff election has been scheduled for 27 November 2018 (<a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/live-updates/midterms/midterm-election-updates/mississippi-senate-race-heads-to-runoff/"target="_blank">The Washington Post</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as "Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)" with an end date of 27 November 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-11-27T18:00:46.000Z", "created_at": "2018-11-16T15:58:15.186Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2367, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 49, "predictions_count": 82, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1043, "question_name": "Who will win Mississippi's U.S. Senate special election runoff?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-11-29T18:49:57.505Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:03:36.969Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-11-27T18:00:46.000Z", "created_at": "2018-11-16T15:58:15.210Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2368, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Mike Espy (D)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 49, "predictions_count": 82, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1043, "question_name": "Who will win Mississippi's U.S. Senate special election runoff?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-11-29T18:49:55.583Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:03:38.403Z"}], "answers_count": 2, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 84, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-11-16T21:58:09.225Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 11, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "After neither candidate won more than 50% of the vote in the general election (Cindy Hyde-Smith won 41.5% and Mike Espy won 40.6%), a runoff election has been scheduled for 27 November 2018 (<a href = \"https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/live-updates/midterms/midterm-election-updates/mississippi-senate-race-heads-to-runoff/\"target=\"_blank\">The Washington Post</a>).\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n\r\nThis question closed as \"Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)\" with an end date of 27 November 2018.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n", "ends_at": "2018-12-26T07:59:24.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1043, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:54:42.148+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:54:33.502+00:00"}, "name": "Who will win Mississippi's U.S. Senate special election runoff?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 82, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 49, "published_at": "2018-11-16T15:58:15.277Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-11-29T18:49:57.532Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-11-27T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-11-16T10:00:24.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-11-16T18:00:24.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.906Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/584 | This question will be resolved using data reported by the Levada Center. Data can be accessed at <a href="http://www.levada.ru/en/ratings/" target="_blank">Levada Indicators</a> by referencing the month of interest in the "Do you approve the activities of the Russian Government?" table. Question will be resolved when data is first released. | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-19T17:00:44.000Z", "created_at": "2017-09-06T16:13:46.021Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1215, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Less than 49", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 158, "predictions_count": 274, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 584, "question_name": "What will be the approval rating for the Russian government in September 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-21T17:50:03.553Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:43.376Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-19T17:00:44.000Z", "created_at": "2017-09-06T16:13:46.043Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1216, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "49 - 50, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 158, "predictions_count": 274, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 584, "question_name": "What will be the approval rating for the Russian government in September 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-21T17:50:05.892Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:44.161Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-19T17:00:44.000Z", "created_at": "2017-09-06T16:13:46.064Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1217, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "More than 50 ", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 158, "predictions_count": 274, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 584, "question_name": "What will be the approval rating for the Russian government in September 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-21T17:50:08.464Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:44.428Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 309, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-09-06T23:34:27.728Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 13, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "This question will be resolved using data reported by the Levada Center. Data can be accessed at <a href=\"http://www.levada.ru/en/ratings/\" target=\"_blank\">Levada Indicators</a> by referencing the month of interest in the \"Do you approve the activities of the Russian Government?\" table. Question will be resolved when data is first released. ", "ends_at": "2017-09-30T06:59:10.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 584, "image": null, "membership_id": 27345, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:37:09.362+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:36:33.152+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the approval rating for the Russian government in September 2017?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 274, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 158, "published_at": "2017-09-06T16:13:46.181Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-21T17:50:08.473Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-09-19T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-09-06T09:30:10.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-09-06T16:30:10.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/25 | This question was closed on option "All of the above will survive season 6" with an end date of 23 October 2016. The season 7 premier revealed that all of the characters listed in this question survived season 6.
“[The midseason premiere] is a huge turning point for Rick and the group, because there’s a lot of chaos and it’s very brutal,” <a href="http://www.tvinsider.com/article/68417/the-walking-dead-season-6-midseason-premiere/ target="_blank">says</a> executive producer and creator Robert Kirkman.
4/15/16: The finale of the Walking Dead's Season 6 left us with a cliffhanger and an unresolved question: Did someone die at the end of the episode and, if so, who? We've decided to keep the question open until the answer to that question is revealed. We'll close the question once we know the identity of anyone who died at the end of Season 6 and all forecasts made until closing will count. If it becomes clear that none of the characters listed in the question died in Season 6, then we'll resolve on option F.
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false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-10-23T17:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2015-09-07T13:46:04.166Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 37, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Glenn", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 482, "predictions_count": 1527, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 25, "question_name": "Which main character will be the first to die in Season 6 of the Walking Dead?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-10-25T13:46:46.526Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:43:59.632Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-10-23T17:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2015-09-07T13:46:14.231Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 38, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Rick", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 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"", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 40, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Carol", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 482, "predictions_count": 1527, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 25, "question_name": "Which main character will be the first to die in Season 6 of the Walking Dead?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-10-25T13:47:19.866Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:44:01.727Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1706, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2015-12-27T06:12:24.872Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 302, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "27%", "description": "This question was closed on option \"All of the above will survive season 6\" with an end date of 23 October 2016. The season 7 premier revealed that all of the characters listed in this question survived season 6. \r\n\r\n\u201c[The midseason premiere] is a huge turning point for Rick and the group, because there\u2019s a lot of chaos and it\u2019s very brutal,\u201d <a href=\"http://www.tvinsider.com/article/68417/the-walking-dead-season-6-midseason-premiere/ target=\"_blank\">says</a> executive producer and creator Robert Kirkman. \r\n\r\n4/15/16: The finale of the Walking Dead's Season 6 left us with a cliffhanger and an unresolved question: Did someone die at the end of the episode and, if so, who? We've decided to keep the question open until the answer to that question is revealed. We'll close the question once we know the identity of anyone who died at the end of Season 6 and all forecasts made until closing will count. 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True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/957 | Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing spot price reported by <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/XAUUSD:CUR" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
The closing spot price of an ounce of gold was $1,252.60. This question closed as "More than $1,250 but less than $1,300" with an end date of 29 June 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-29T17:00:39.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-16T18:24:41.194Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2149, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Less than $1,200", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 77, "predictions_count": 317, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 957, "question_name": "What will be the closing spot price of an ounce of gold on 29 June 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-03T19:08:43.909Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:07.574Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-29T17:00:39.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-16T18:24:41.216Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2150, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Between $1,200 and $1,250, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 77, "predictions_count": 317, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 957, "question_name": "What will be the closing spot price of an ounce of gold on 29 June 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-03T19:08:22.117Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:08.364Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-29T17:00:39.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-16T18:24:41.238Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2151, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "More than $1,250 but less than $1,300", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 77, "predictions_count": 317, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 957, "question_name": "What will be the closing spot price of an ounce of gold on 29 June 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-03T19:07:58.503Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:09.093Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-29T17:00:39.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-16T18:24:41.258Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2152, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Between $1,300 and $1,350, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 77, "predictions_count": 317, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 957, "question_name": "What will be the closing spot price of an ounce of gold on 29 June 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-03T19:07:33.520Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:09.906Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-29T17:00:39.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-16T18:24:41.280Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2153, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "More than $1,350", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 77, "predictions_count": 317, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 957, "question_name": "What will be the closing spot price of an ounce of gold on 29 June 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-03T19:07:07.835Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:10.328Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 337, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-06-15T14:44:04.917Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 12, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "71%", "description": "Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing spot price reported by <a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/XAUUSD:CUR\" target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nThe closing spot price of an ounce of gold was $1,252.60. This question closed as \"More than $1,250 but less than $1,300\" with an end date of 29 June 2018. \r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-06-28T06:59:43.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 957, "image": null, "membership_id": 27345, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:52:59.161+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:52:14.489+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the closing spot price of an ounce of gold on 29 June 2018?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 317, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 77, "published_at": "2018-05-16T18:24:41.353Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-03T19:08:43.985Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-06-27T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-05-16T11:30:43.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-05-16T18:30:43.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2021-09-16T02:52:59.185Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/697 | This question will be resolved using Nielsen's Fast National Ratings data as reported on <a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings"target="_blank">The Futon Critic</a> in the "Sunday's Broadcast Ratings" summary of 19 November 2017.
Fast National Ratings are typically reported on the Monday following Sunday programming. This season's Fast National viewership numbers for Sunday Night Football are as follows:
10 September 2017: 21.559 million viewers (<a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/09/12/sundays-broadcast-ratings-sunday-night-football-begins-its-reign-for-nbc-978110/broadcast_20170910/"target="_blank">The Futon Critic</a>)
17 September 2017: 18.460 million viewers (<a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/09/18/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nfl-on-nbc-fox-overshadow-emmys-on-cbs-414310/broadcast_20170917/"target="_blank">The Futon Critic</a>)
24 September 2017: 14.537 million viewers (<a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/09/25/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nbc-sunday-night-football-top-competition-194402/broadcast_20170924/"target="_blank">The Futon Critic</a>)
1 October 2017: 14.009 million viewers (<a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/10/02/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nbc-sunday-night-football-remain-on-top-993401/broadcast_20171001/"target="_blank">The Futon Critic</a>)
8 October 2017: 14.853 million viewers (<a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/10/09/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nfl-gives-boost-to-nbc-fox-799001/broadcast_20171008/target="_blank">The Futon Critic</a>)
15 October 2017: 14.423 million viewers (<a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/10/16/sundays-broadcast-ratings-sunday-night-football-powers-another-nbc-victory-896503/broadcast_20171015/"target="_blank">The Futon Critic</a>)
22 October 2017: 16.741 million viewers (<a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/10/23/sundays-broadcast-ratings-another-week-another-sunday-night-football-victory-105011/broadcast_20171022/"target="_blank">The Futon Critic</a>)
29 October 2017: 12.666 million viewers <a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/10/30/sundays-broadcast-ratings-fox-pulls-in-front-with-nfl-overrun-world-series-594202/broadcast_20171029"target="_blank">The Futon Critic</a>)
5 November 2017: 11.673 million viewers (<a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/11/06/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nbc-sunday-night-football-return-to-top-spots-95104/broadcast_20171105/"target="_blank">The Futon Critic </a>)
12 November 2017: 15.329 million viewers (<a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/11/13/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nbc-sunday-night-football-top-charts-815012/broadcast_20171112"target="_blank">The Futon Critic </a>)
19 November 2017: 18.772 million viewers <a href = "http://www.thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/11/20/sundays-broadcast-ratings-cowboys-eagles-showdown-puts-nbc-on-top-893502/broadcast_20171119/"target="_blank">(The Futon Critic)</a>
NOTE: This is an experimental short-term question intended to serve as 'forecasting fodder.' The idea is to give forecasters a way to get scored quickly on questions that demand difficult, multifaceted analysis. Sunday Night Football viewership in any given week may be influenced by long-term trends (e.g. a move to streaming services), or circumstances specific to game day (who is playing, what competing programming will air), among other factors.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
According to <a href = "http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/11/27/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nbc-rides-sunday-night-football-to-top-spot-500410/broadcast_20171126/#6Co8A31W09Ifkt4V.99"target="_blank">The Futon Critic</a> 16.338 million viewers tuned in to watch Sunday Night Football on November 26, 2017. This question was closed as "e) More than 16 million," with an end date of 27 November 2017.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-27T18:00:17.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-21T16:51:26.233Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1484, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Fewer than 14.5 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 28, "predictions_count": 41, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 697, "question_name": "How many viewers will tune in to watch Sunday Night Football on 26 November 2017? \r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-04T18:18:15.220Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:55:25.230Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-27T18:00:17.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-21T16:51:26.270Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1485, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 14.5 million and 15 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 28, "predictions_count": 41, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 697, "question_name": "How many viewers will tune in to watch Sunday Night Football on 26 November 2017? \r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-04T18:18:14.776Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:55:26.501Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-27T18:00:17.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-21T16:51:26.308Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1486, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 15 million but less than 15.5 million", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 28, "predictions_count": 41, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 697, "question_name": "How many viewers will tune in to watch Sunday Night Football on 26 November 2017? \r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-04T18:18:14.353Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:55:27.674Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-27T18:00:17.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-21T16:51:26.338Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1487, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 15.5 million and 16 million, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 28, "predictions_count": 41, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 697, "question_name": "How many viewers will tune in to watch Sunday Night Football on 26 November 2017? \r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-04T18:18:13.902Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:55:29.267Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-27T18:00:17.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-21T16:51:26.380Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1488, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 16 million", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 28, "predictions_count": 41, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 697, "question_name": "How many viewers will tune in to watch Sunday Night Football on 26 November 2017? \r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-04T18:18:13.447Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:55:29.938Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 43, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-11-24T01:41:00.063Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 2, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "50%", "description": "This question will be resolved using Nielsen's Fast National Ratings data as reported on <a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings\"target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic</a> in the \"Sunday's Broadcast Ratings\" summary of 19 November 2017. \r\n\r\nFast National Ratings are typically reported on the Monday following Sunday programming. This season's Fast National viewership numbers for Sunday Night Football are as follows: \r\n\r\n10 September 2017: 21.559 million viewers (<a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/09/12/sundays-broadcast-ratings-sunday-night-football-begins-its-reign-for-nbc-978110/broadcast_20170910/\"target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic</a>)\r\n\r\n17 September 2017: 18.460 million viewers (<a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/09/18/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nfl-on-nbc-fox-overshadow-emmys-on-cbs-414310/broadcast_20170917/\"target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic</a>)\r\n \r\n24 September 2017: 14.537 million viewers (<a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/09/25/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nbc-sunday-night-football-top-competition-194402/broadcast_20170924/\"target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic</a>)\r\n\r\n1 October 2017: 14.009 million viewers (<a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/10/02/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nbc-sunday-night-football-remain-on-top-993401/broadcast_20171001/\"target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic</a>)\r\n \r\n8 October 2017: 14.853 million viewers (<a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/10/09/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nfl-gives-boost-to-nbc-fox-799001/broadcast_20171008/target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic</a>)\r\n\r\n15 October 2017: 14.423 million viewers (<a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/10/16/sundays-broadcast-ratings-sunday-night-football-powers-another-nbc-victory-896503/broadcast_20171015/\"target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic</a>)\r\n\r\n22 October 2017: 16.741 million viewers (<a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/10/23/sundays-broadcast-ratings-another-week-another-sunday-night-football-victory-105011/broadcast_20171022/\"target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic</a>)\r\n\r\n29 October 2017: 12.666 million viewers <a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/10/30/sundays-broadcast-ratings-fox-pulls-in-front-with-nfl-overrun-world-series-594202/broadcast_20171029\"target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic</a>)\r\n\r\n5 November 2017: 11.673 million viewers (<a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/11/06/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nbc-sunday-night-football-return-to-top-spots-95104/broadcast_20171105/\"target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic </a>)\r\n\r\n12 November 2017: 15.329 million viewers (<a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/11/13/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nbc-sunday-night-football-top-charts-815012/broadcast_20171112\"target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic </a>)\r\n\r\n19 November 2017: 18.772 million viewers <a href = \"http://www.thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/11/20/sundays-broadcast-ratings-cowboys-eagles-showdown-puts-nbc-on-top-893502/broadcast_20171119/\"target=\"_blank\">(The Futon Critic)</a>\r\n\r\nNOTE: This is an experimental short-term question intended to serve as 'forecasting fodder.' The idea is to give forecasters a way to get scored quickly on questions that demand difficult, multifaceted analysis. Sunday Night Football viewership in any given week may be influenced by long-term trends (e.g. a move to streaming services), or circumstances specific to game day (who is playing, what competing programming will air), among other factors. \r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n\r\nAccording to <a href = \"http://thefutoncritic.com/ratings/2017/11/27/sundays-broadcast-ratings-nbc-rides-sunday-night-football-to-top-spot-500410/broadcast_20171126/#6Co8A31W09Ifkt4V.99\"target=\"_blank\">The Futon Critic</a> 16.338 million viewers tuned in to watch Sunday Night Football on November 26, 2017. This question was closed as \"e) More than 16 million,\" with an end date of 27 November 2017.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>", "ends_at": "2017-11-26T07:59:49.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 697, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:42:09.925+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:41:59.415+00:00"}, "name": "How many viewers will tune in to watch Sunday Night Football on 26 November 2017? \r\n", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 41, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 28, "published_at": "2017-11-21T16:51:26.508Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-04T18:18:15.232Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-11-25T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-11-21T10:00:19.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-11-21T18:00:19.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.863Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1068 | <p>Outcome will be determined by data reported in the table "Southwest Family Unit Subject and Unaccompanied Alien Children Apprehensions Fiscal Year 2019 - By Month" located <a href="https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/sw-border-migration/usbp-sw-border-apprehensions" target="_blank">here</a>, by adding up the numbers in the "Total Apprehensions" column for El Centro and San Diego on the tab that should be called "FY19 January." For example, the figure for FY19 November was 7,764 total apprehensions. This question will be suspended on 31 January 2019 and will close when data for January are released.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
</p><hr>
<p></p><p>The total apprehensions for the El Centro (2,461) and San Diego (4,122) sectors in FY19 January was 6,583. This question closed with "Between 6,000 and 6,999, inclusive."</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span><br></p>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-02-01T18:00:31.000Z", "created_at": "2018-12-21T16:18:09.399Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2443, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Less than 6,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 68, "predictions_count": 116, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1068, "question_name": "How many total \"Southwest Family Unit Subject and Unaccompanied Alien Children Apprehensions\" will U.S. Customs and Border Protection report for the El Centro and San Diego sectors in January 2019?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-02-12T14:14:35.521Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:04:53.466Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-02-01T18:00:31.000Z", "created_at": "2018-12-21T16:18:09.587Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2444, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 6,000 and 6,999, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 68, "predictions_count": 116, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1068, "question_name": "How many total \"Southwest Family Unit Subject and Unaccompanied Alien Children Apprehensions\" will U.S. Customs and Border Protection report for the El Centro and San Diego sectors in January 2019?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-02-12T14:14:32.610Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:04:54.052Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-02-01T18:00:31.000Z", "created_at": "2018-12-21T16:18:09.811Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2445, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 7,000 and 7,999, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 68, "predictions_count": 116, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1068, "question_name": "How many total \"Southwest Family Unit Subject and Unaccompanied Alien Children Apprehensions\" will U.S. Customs and Border Protection report for the El Centro and San Diego sectors in January 2019?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-02-12T14:14:29.797Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:04:54.418Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-02-01T18:00:31.000Z", "created_at": "2018-12-21T16:18:10.139Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2446, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 8,000 and 8,999, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 68, "predictions_count": 116, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1068, "question_name": "How many total \"Southwest Family Unit Subject and Unaccompanied Alien Children Apprehensions\" will U.S. Customs and Border Protection report for the El Centro and San Diego sectors in January 2019?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-02-12T14:14:27.352Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:04:55.806Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-02-01T18:00:31.000Z", "created_at": "2018-12-21T16:18:10.704Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2447, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "9,000 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 68, "predictions_count": 116, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1068, "question_name": "How many total \"Southwest Family Unit Subject and Unaccompanied Alien Children Apprehensions\" will U.S. Customs and Border Protection report for the El Centro and San Diego sectors in January 2019?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-02-12T14:14:25.017Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:04:57.172Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 119, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2019-01-27T13:13:36.778Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 4, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "90%", "description": "<p>Outcome will be determined by data reported in the table \"Southwest Family Unit Subject and Unaccompanied Alien Children Apprehensions Fiscal Year 2019 - By Month\" located <a href=\"https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/sw-border-migration/usbp-sw-border-apprehensions\" target=\"_blank\">here</a>, by adding up the numbers in the \"Total Apprehensions\" column for El Centro and San Diego on the tab that should be called \"FY19 January.\" For example, the figure for FY19 November was 7,764 total apprehensions. This question will be suspended on 31 January 2019 and will close when data for January are released. \r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n</p><hr>\r\n\r\n<p></p><p>The total apprehensions for the El Centro (2,461) and San Diego (4,122) sectors in FY19 January was 6,583. This question closed with \"Between 6,000 and 6,999, inclusive.\"</p><p><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span><br></p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n", "ends_at": "2019-02-01T07:59:41.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1068, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:57:39.437+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:57:09.722+00:00"}, "name": "How many total \"Southwest Family Unit Subject and Unaccompanied Alien Children Apprehensions\" will U.S. Customs and Border Protection report for the El Centro and San Diego sectors in January 2019?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 116, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 68, "published_at": "2018-12-21T16:18:11.522Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-02-12T14:14:35.535Z", "scoring_end_time": "2019-01-31T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-12-21T10:00:41.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-12-21T18:00:41.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.984Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/536 | This question will be resolved using the Mack Institute's analysis for 2017, which will replicate an approach published in a <a href = "https://www.sei-international.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-Nature-pre-pub-2015-falling-costs-battery-packs-BEVs.pdf"target="_blank">2015 Nature Climate Change study</a>. In 2016, using a similar method, the Mack Institute found that the average price had declined to $282 per kWh (<a href = "https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2017/electric-vehicle-battery-costs-decline/"target="_blank">Mack Institute</a>). Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines (<a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-26/electric-cars-seen-cheaper-than-gasoline-models-within-a-decade"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href = "https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2017/jul/19/electric-cars-battery-revolution-tesla-volvo"target="_blank">The Guardian</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
Mack notes that they did not find any acceleration in the cost trend as many pundits have argued, but that GJO forecasters had it spot on! The Mack Institute has completed the new analysis for the 2017 battery costs. Based on the latest data, they found the industry-wide average cost of battery packs in 2017 was US $236 per kWh. The cost reduction trended at the same rate as last year with a 16% reduction in annual cost (<a href = "https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2018/electric-vehicle-battery-costs-decline/"target="_blank">The Mack Institute</a>). This question closed as "More than $230 but less than $245 per kWh" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-01T18:00:42.000Z", "created_at": "2017-07-21T16:11:12.849Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1074, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Less than $215 kWh", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 178, "predictions_count": 404, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 536, "question_name": "What will be the 2017 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-02-22T17:31:12.747Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:14.177Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-01T18:00:42.000Z", "created_at": "2017-07-21T16:11:12.875Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1075, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between $215 and $230 per kWh, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 178, "predictions_count": 404, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 536, "question_name": "What will be the 2017 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-02-22T17:31:06.862Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:14.874Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-01T18:00:42.000Z", "created_at": "2017-07-21T16:11:12.921Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1076, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than $230 but less than $245 per kWh", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 178, "predictions_count": 404, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 536, "question_name": "What will be the 2017 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-02-22T17:31:18.890Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:15.665Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-01T18:00:42.000Z", "created_at": "2017-07-21T16:11:12.963Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1077, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "$245 per kWh or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 178, "predictions_count": 404, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 536, "question_name": "What will be the 2017 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-02-22T17:31:00.497Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:16.131Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 419, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-11-23T05:23:32.749Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 40, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "76%", "description": "This question will be resolved using the Mack Institute's analysis for 2017, which will replicate an approach published in a <a href = \"https://www.sei-international.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-Nature-pre-pub-2015-falling-costs-battery-packs-BEVs.pdf\"target=\"_blank\">2015 Nature Climate Change study</a>. In 2016, using a similar method, the Mack Institute found that the average price had declined to $282 per kWh (<a href = \"https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2017/electric-vehicle-battery-costs-decline/\"target=\"_blank\">Mack Institute</a>). Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines (<a href = \"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-26/electric-cars-seen-cheaper-than-gasoline-models-within-a-decade\"target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>, <a href = \"https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2017/jul/19/electric-cars-battery-revolution-tesla-volvo\"target=\"_blank\">The Guardian</a>). \r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nMack notes that they did not find any acceleration in the cost trend as many pundits have argued, but that GJO forecasters had it spot on! The Mack Institute has completed the new analysis for the 2017 battery costs. Based on the latest data, they found the industry-wide average cost of battery packs in 2017 was US $236 per kWh. The cost reduction trended at the same rate as last year with a 16% reduction in annual cost (<a href = \"https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2018/electric-vehicle-battery-costs-decline/\"target=\"_blank\">The Mack Institute</a>). This question closed as \"More than $230 but less than $245 per kWh\" with an end date of 1 January 2018.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-01-02T07:59:13.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 536, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:33:56.378+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:32:52.356+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the 2017 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 404, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 178, "published_at": "2017-07-21T16:11:13.244Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-02-22T17:31:18.916Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-07-21T10:00:13.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-07-21T17:00:13.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.912Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/241 | This question was closed with the correct answer 'Donald Trump' with an end date of 8 November 2016. Donald Trump won the state of Pennsylvania on November 8. (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/president" target="_blank">NY Times</a>)
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>
<hr>
The presidential race in Pennsylvania is likely to be competitive (<a href="https://www.yahoo.com/news/swing-states-states-decide-2016-214642656.html?ref=gs" target="_blank">Yahoo! News</a>, <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/02/the-most-valuable-voters-of-2016/431865/" target="_blank">The Atlantic</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/23/the-fixs-first-2016-electoral-college-ratings-are-here/" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>).
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<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/242" target="_blank">Which presidential candidate will win Michigan?</a> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-11-08T18:00:08.000Z", "created_at": "2016-07-15T16:31:44.224Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 450, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "Hillary Clinton", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 488, "predictions_count": 1475, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 241, "question_name": "Which presidential candidate will win Pennsylvania?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-11-16T20:46:34.001Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:27.634Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-11-08T18:00:08.000Z", "created_at": "2016-07-15T16:31:44.245Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 451, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "Donald Trump", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 488, "predictions_count": 1475, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 241, "question_name": "Which presidential candidate will win Pennsylvania?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-11-16T20:45:34.924Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:27.823Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-11-08T18:00:08.000Z", "created_at": "2016-07-15T16:31:44.263Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 452, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 488, "predictions_count": 1475, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 241, "question_name": "Which presidential candidate will win Pennsylvania?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-11-16T20:47:30.795Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:28.060Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1492, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "This question was closed with the correct answer 'Donald Trump' with an end date of 8 November 2016. Donald Trump won the state of Pennsylvania on November 8. (<a href=\"http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/president\" target=\"_blank\">NY Times</a>)\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a> \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nThe presidential race in Pennsylvania is likely to be competitive (<a href=\"https://www.yahoo.com/news/swing-states-states-decide-2016-214642656.html?ref=gs\" target=\"_blank\">Yahoo! News</a>, <a href=\"http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/02/the-most-valuable-voters-of-2016/431865/\" target=\"_blank\">The Atlantic</a>, <a href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/23/the-fixs-first-2016-electoral-college-ratings-are-here/\" target=\"_blank\">Washington Post</a>).\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions:\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/124\" target=\"_blank\">Who will win the 2016 US presidential election?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/240\" target=\"_blank\">Which presidential candidate will win Ohio?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/242\" target=\"_blank\">Which presidential candidate will win Michigan?</a>", "ends_at": "2016-11-09T07:59:03.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 241, "image": null, "membership_id": 4461, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:10:14.168+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:07:57.583+00:00"}, "name": "Which presidential candidate will win Pennsylvania?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1475, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 488, "published_at": "2016-07-15T16:31:44.326Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-11-16T20:47:30.856Z", "scoring_end_time": "2016-11-08T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-07-15T10:00:03.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-07-15T17:00:03.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.840Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/136 | This question was closed on option C) 'No' on 17 October, 2016. No sources have reported the return of any of the three relevant ambassadors (from Bahrain, the UAE, and Qatar) to Iran.
In January, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, Djibouti, Sudan, and Kuwait recalled their ambassadors to Iran or otherwise broke diplomatic relations after Iranian protesters attacked the Saudi embassy in Tehran (<a href = "http://www.thenational.ae/world/middle-east/uae-recalls-ambassador-to-iran" target = "_blank">The National</a>, <a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-iran-qatar-idUSKBN0UK23Z20160106" target = "_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/01/allies-saudi-arabia-showdown-iran-160104130416688.html" target = "_blank">Al Jazeera</a>). If the events occur simultaneously, the question will be scored on option A. 18 October 2016 is the one year anniversary of "Adoption Day" for the nuclear deal.
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<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/17-will-iran-s-president-hassan-rouhani-meet-saudi-arabia-s-king-salman-bin-abdulaziz-al-saud-before-1-september-2016" target = "_blank">Will Iran's President Hassan Rouhani meet Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud before 1 September 2016?</a>
<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/62-will-there-be-a-new-king-of-saudi-arabia-before-1-june-2016" target = "_blank">Will there be a new King of Saudi Arabia before 1 June 2016?</a> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-10-17T17:00:33.000Z", "created_at": "2016-02-09T17:28:02.613Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 257, "membership_id": 6, "name": "No", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 368, "predictions_count": 1309, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 136, "question_name": "Will Bahrain, Qatar, or the UAE return an ambassador to Iran before 18 October 2016?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-10-18T18:53:56.974Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:46:39.830Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-10-17T17:00:33.000Z", "created_at": "2016-02-09T17:23:04.420Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 255, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 368, "predictions_count": 1309, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 136, "question_name": "Will Bahrain, Qatar, or the UAE return an ambassador to Iran before 18 October 2016?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-10-18T18:54:07.067Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:46:38.779Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-10-17T17:00:33.000Z", "created_at": "2016-02-09T17:23:25.246Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 256, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 368, "predictions_count": 1309, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 136, "question_name": "Will Bahrain, Qatar, or the UAE return an ambassador to Iran before 18 October 2016?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-10-18T18:54:22.712Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:46:39.158Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1337, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2016-02-09T20:21:40.985Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 251, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "This question was closed on option C) 'No' on 17 October, 2016. No sources have reported the return of any of the three relevant ambassadors (from Bahrain, the UAE, and Qatar) to Iran. \r\n\r\nIn January, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, Djibouti, Sudan, and Kuwait recalled their ambassadors to Iran or otherwise broke diplomatic relations after Iranian protesters attacked the Saudi embassy in Tehran (<a href = \"http://www.thenational.ae/world/middle-east/uae-recalls-ambassador-to-iran\" target = \"_blank\">The National</a>, <a href = \"http://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-iran-qatar-idUSKBN0UK23Z20160106\" target = \"_blank\">Reuters</a>, <a href = \"http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/01/allies-saudi-arabia-showdown-iran-160104130416688.html\" target = \"_blank\">Al Jazeera</a>). If the events occur simultaneously, the question will be scored on option A. 18 October 2016 is the one year anniversary of \"Adoption Day\" for the nuclear deal.\r\n\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions\r\n<a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/17-will-iran-s-president-hassan-rouhani-meet-saudi-arabia-s-king-salman-bin-abdulaziz-al-saud-before-1-september-2016\" target = \"_blank\">Will Iran's President Hassan Rouhani meet Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud before 1 September 2016?</a>\r\n<a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/62-will-there-be-a-new-king-of-saudi-arabia-before-1-june-2016\" target = \"_blank\">Will there be a new King of Saudi Arabia before 1 June 2016?</a>", "ends_at": "2016-10-18T06:59:46.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 136, "image": null, "membership_id": 6, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T01:58:42.681+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T01:55:36.242+00:00"}, "name": "Will Bahrain, Qatar, or the UAE return an ambassador to Iran before 18 October 2016?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1309, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 368, "published_at": "2016-02-09T17:31:12.682Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-10-18T18:54:22.728Z", "scoring_end_time": "2016-10-17T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-02-09T10:00:46.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-02-09T18:00:46.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.827Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/592 | In July 2017, the Chinese web services company Baidu released "Apollo," an open source autonomous driving operating system (<a href="http://apollo.auto" target="_blank">Apollo</a>, <a href="https://fossbytes.com/apollo-baidu-open-source-autonomous-driving-platform/" target="_blank">Fossbytes</a>). Apollo is available on a <a href="https://github.com/ApolloAuto/apollo" target="_blank">GitHub repository</a>, where developers can download the code, modify it, and suggest changes to Baidu. Developers who want to contribute to the Apollo source code must "fork" the repository. For more information on GitHub "forks," visit <a href="https://guides.github.com/activities/forking/" target="_blank">GitHub's tutorial on the topic</a>. This question will be resolved using Apollo's <a href="https://github.com/ApolloAuto/apollo" target="_blank">GitHub repository</a>, which provides an ongoing tally of "forks" in the top right corner.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
This question closed as "c) Between 2,001 and 3,000 inclusive" with an end date of 30 March 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-03-30T17:00:59.000Z", "created_at": "2017-09-08T15:42:12.726Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1236, "membership_id": 27345, "name": " Less than 1,750", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 241, "predictions_count": 849, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 592, "question_name": "On 30 March 2018, how many GitHub forks will Baidu's Apollo autonomous driving software have?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-04-04T15:42:44.931Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:52.024Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-03-30T17:00:59.000Z", "created_at": "2017-09-08T15:42:12.842Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1237, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Between 1,750 and 2,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 241, "predictions_count": 849, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 592, "question_name": "On 30 March 2018, how many GitHub forks will Baidu's Apollo autonomous driving software have?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-04-04T15:41:54.402Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:52.698Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-03-30T17:00:59.000Z", "created_at": "2017-09-08T15:42:12.903Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1238, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Between 2,001 and 3,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 241, "predictions_count": 849, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 592, "question_name": "On 30 March 2018, how many GitHub forks will Baidu's Apollo autonomous driving software have?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-04-04T15:41:04.477Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:53.021Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-03-30T17:00:59.000Z", "created_at": "2017-09-08T15:42:12.975Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1239, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "More than 3,000 ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 241, "predictions_count": 849, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 592, "question_name": "On 30 March 2018, how many GitHub forks will Baidu's Apollo autonomous driving software have?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-04-04T15:40:12.530Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:53.296Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 875, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-02-26T00:07:05.195Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 32, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "84%", "description": "In July 2017, the Chinese web services company Baidu released \"Apollo,\" an open source autonomous driving operating system (<a href=\"http://apollo.auto\" target=\"_blank\">Apollo</a>, <a href=\"https://fossbytes.com/apollo-baidu-open-source-autonomous-driving-platform/\" target=\"_blank\">Fossbytes</a>). Apollo is available on a <a href=\"https://github.com/ApolloAuto/apollo\" target=\"_blank\">GitHub repository</a>, where developers can download the code, modify it, and suggest changes to Baidu. Developers who want to contribute to the Apollo source code must \"fork\" the repository. For more information on GitHub \"forks,\" visit <a href=\"https://guides.github.com/activities/forking/\" target=\"_blank\">GitHub's tutorial on the topic</a>. \u000bThis question will be resolved using Apollo's <a href=\"https://github.com/ApolloAuto/apollo\" target=\"_blank\">GitHub repository</a>, which provides an ongoing tally of \"forks\" in the top right corner.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n\r\nThis question closed as \"c) Between 2,001 and 3,000 inclusive\" with an end date of 30 March 2018.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-03-30T06:59:30.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 592, "image": null, "membership_id": 27345, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:38:59.398+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:37:09.469+00:00"}, "name": "On 30 March 2018, how many GitHub forks will Baidu's Apollo autonomous driving software have?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 849, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 241, "published_at": "2017-09-08T15:42:13.437Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-04-04T15:42:44.984Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-03-29T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-09-08T10:00:30.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-09-08T17:00:30.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.912Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/643 | This question will be resolved using the last daily London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) Gold Price USD (PM). (LBMA - http://www.lbma.org.uk/pricing-and-statistics) for the date of interest. The relevant data is available by selecting 'Table' and referring to the 'PM' column under 'USD.' Question will be suspended on the day before the date of interest and resolved the day after the date of interest. | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-31T15:00:50.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-06T13:32:40.862Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1334, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Less than 1229.85", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 149, "predictions_count": 419, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 643, "question_name": "What will the closing price of gold be on 31October 2017 in USD?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-02T13:17:43.836Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:20.734Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-31T15:00:50.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-06T13:32:40.899Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1335, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 1229.85 and 1268.42, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 149, "predictions_count": 419, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 643, "question_name": "What will the closing price of gold be on 31October 2017 in USD?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-02T13:17:34.760Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:21.363Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-31T15:00:50.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-06T13:32:40.935Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1336, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 1268.42 but less than 1301.63", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 149, "predictions_count": 419, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 643, "question_name": "What will the closing price of gold be on 31October 2017 in USD?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-02T13:17:26.775Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:22.122Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-31T15:00:50.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-06T13:32:40.963Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1337, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 1301.63 and 1340.19, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 149, "predictions_count": 419, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 643, "question_name": "What will the closing price of gold be on 31October 2017 in USD?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-02T13:17:18.604Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:22.411Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-31T15:00:50.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-06T13:32:40.989Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1338, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 1340.19", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 149, "predictions_count": 419, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 643, "question_name": "What will the closing price of gold be on 31October 2017 in USD?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-02T13:17:50.953Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:23.183Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 438, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-10-18T01:22:34.786Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 13, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "32%", "description": "This question will be resolved using the last daily London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) Gold Price USD (PM). (LBMA - http://www.lbma.org.uk/pricing-and-statistics) for the date of interest. The relevant data is available by selecting 'Table' and referring to the 'PM' column under 'USD.' Question will be suspended on the day before the date of interest and resolved the day after the date of interest.", "ends_at": "2017-10-31T03:59:34.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 643, "image": null, "membership_id": 36637, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:40:14.144+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:39:04.999+00:00"}, "name": "What will the closing price of gold be on 31October 2017 in USD?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 419, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 149, "published_at": "2017-10-11T15:01:56.166Z", "resolution_notes": ["Actual value: 1270.15\r\nhttp://www.lbma.org.uk/pricing-and-statistics"], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-02T13:17:50.971Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-10-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-10-11T09:00:34.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-10-11T16:00:34.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/668 | In recent months, North Korea has increased the pace of its ballistic missile testing program. In response, many of its neighbors have invested in ballistic missile defense (<a href = "https://cn.nytimes.com/asia-pacific/20170907/south-korea-thaad-missile-defense/en-us/"target="_blank">New York Times</a>, <a href = "https://news.usni.org/2016/09/06/new-south-korean-destroyers-ballistic-missile-defense-capability"target="_blank">USNI</a>, <a href = "http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2109907/china-shoots-down-incoming-missiles-during-exercise"target="_blank">SCMP</a>, <a href = "http://thediplomat.com/2017/08/why-north-korea-is-planning-long-range-missile-flight-tests-over-japan-and-toward-guam/"target="_blank">The Diplomat</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as "no" with and end date of 1 May 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-05-01T17:00:25.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-24T14:57:24.832Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1399, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Yes, and the North Korean missile flight path will be interrupted", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 1121, "predictions_count": 1931, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 668, "question_name": "Before 1 May 2018, will a ballistic missile defense system shoot at a North Korean missile launch?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-05-04T13:08:19.869Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:29.431Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-05-01T17:00:25.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-24T14:57:24.866Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1400, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Yes, but the North Korean missile flight path will NOT be interrupted", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 1121, "predictions_count": 1931, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 668, "question_name": "Before 1 May 2018, will a ballistic missile defense system shoot at a North Korean missile launch?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-05-04T13:07:05.669Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:29.545Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-05-01T17:00:25.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-24T14:57:24.891Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1401, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "No", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 1121, "predictions_count": 1931, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 668, "question_name": "Before 1 May 2018, will a ballistic missile defense system shoot at a North Korean missile launch?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-05-04T13:06:04.788Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:29.635Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1969, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-10-25T14:19:55.289Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 187, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "1%", "description": "In recent months, North Korea has increased the pace of its ballistic missile testing program. In response, many of its neighbors have invested in ballistic missile defense (<a href = \"https://cn.nytimes.com/asia-pacific/20170907/south-korea-thaad-missile-defense/en-us/\"target=\"_blank\">New York Times</a>, <a href = \"https://news.usni.org/2016/09/06/new-south-korean-destroyers-ballistic-missile-defense-capability\"target=\"_blank\">USNI</a>, <a href = \"http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2109907/china-shoots-down-incoming-missiles-during-exercise\"target=\"_blank\">SCMP</a>, <a href = \"http://thediplomat.com/2017/08/why-north-korea-is-planning-long-range-missile-flight-tests-over-japan-and-toward-guam/\"target=\"_blank\">The Diplomat</a>).\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nThis question closed as \"no\" with and end date of 1 May 2018.\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-05-01T06:59:27.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 668, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:44:47.459+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:39:56.197+00:00"}, "name": "Before 1 May 2018, will a ballistic missile defense system shoot at a North Korean missile launch?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1931, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 1121, "published_at": "2017-10-24T14:57:24.967Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-05-04T13:08:19.914Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-04-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-10-24T10:00:27.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-10-24T17:00:27.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.933Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/891 | The Mirai is Toyota's first commercially launched fuel cell-powered electric vehicle (<a href = "https://ssl.toyota.com/mirai/fcv.html"target="_blank">Toyata</a>,
<a href = "https://www.forbes.com/sites/lianeyvkoff/2016/01/31/hydrogen-vehicles-are-here-and-expensive/#4a9d75316c6c"target="_blank">Forbes</a>, <a href = "https://www.forbes.com/sites/brookecrothers/2015/07/20/toyota-on-mirai-vs-tesla-battery-electric-vehicles-have-fundamental-physics-problem/#488d5ddb6af0"target="_blank">Toyota</a>). Since 2015, Toyota has sold or leased over 3,000 Mirais in the US, all in California (<a href = "http://www.thedrive.com/tech/17924/toyota-mirai-hydrogen-fuel-cell-car-tops-3000-california-sales"target="_blank">The Drive</a>). Toyota Mirai sales data can be tracked <a href = "http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/toyota/toyota-mirai/"target="_blank">here</a>. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2018 and will be closed when the data for relevant months are available.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
Between January and June 2018, Toyota sold or leased 743 Mirais. This question closed as "Less than 900" with an end date of 1 July 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-01T17:00:57.000Z", "created_at": "2018-02-28T17:01:29.130Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1961, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Less than 900 ", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 100, "predictions_count": 265, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 891, "question_name": "How many Mirais will Toyota sell or lease between January 2018 and June 2018, inclusive?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-10T15:45:12.628Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:36.076Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-01T17:00:57.000Z", "created_at": "2018-02-28T17:01:29.230Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1962, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 900 and 1199, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 100, "predictions_count": 265, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 891, "question_name": "How many Mirais will Toyota sell or lease between January 2018 and June 2018, inclusive?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-10T15:45:15.292Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:36.373Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-01T17:00:57.000Z", "created_at": "2018-02-28T17:01:29.340Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1963, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 1200 and 1499, inclusive ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 100, "predictions_count": 265, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 891, "question_name": "How many Mirais will Toyota sell or lease between January 2018 and June 2018, inclusive?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-10T15:45:10.117Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:36.600Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-01T17:00:57.000Z", "created_at": "2018-02-28T17:01:29.462Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1964, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 1500 and 1799, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 100, "predictions_count": 265, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 891, "question_name": "How many Mirais will Toyota sell or lease between January 2018 and June 2018, inclusive?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-10T15:45:17.764Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:37.076Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-01T17:00:57.000Z", "created_at": "2018-02-28T17:01:29.558Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1965, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "1800 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 100, "predictions_count": 265, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 891, "question_name": "How many Mirais will Toyota sell or lease between January 2018 and June 2018, inclusive?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-10T15:45:07.724Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:37.438Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 294, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-05-05T02:38:07.521Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 57, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "53%", "description": "The Mirai is Toyota's first commercially launched fuel cell-powered electric vehicle (<a href = \"https://ssl.toyota.com/mirai/fcv.html\"target=\"_blank\">Toyata</a>, \r\n <a href = \"https://www.forbes.com/sites/lianeyvkoff/2016/01/31/hydrogen-vehicles-are-here-and-expensive/#4a9d75316c6c\"target=\"_blank\">Forbes</a>, <a href = \"https://www.forbes.com/sites/brookecrothers/2015/07/20/toyota-on-mirai-vs-tesla-battery-electric-vehicles-have-fundamental-physics-problem/#488d5ddb6af0\"target=\"_blank\">Toyota</a>). Since 2015, Toyota has sold or leased over 3,000 Mirais in the US, all in California (<a href = \"http://www.thedrive.com/tech/17924/toyota-mirai-hydrogen-fuel-cell-car-tops-3000-california-sales\"target=\"_blank\">The Drive</a>). Toyota Mirai sales data can be tracked <a href = \"http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/toyota/toyota-mirai/\"target=\"_blank\">here</a>. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2018 and will be closed when the data for relevant months are available.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nBetween January and June 2018, Toyota sold or leased 743 Mirais. This question closed as \"Less than 900\" with an end date of 1 July 2018. \r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-07-01T06:59:35.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 891, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:48:18.690+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:47:32.489+00:00"}, "name": "How many Mirais will Toyota sell or lease between January 2018 and June 2018, inclusive?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 265, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 100, "published_at": "2018-02-28T17:01:29.988Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-10T15:45:17.783Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-06-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-02-28T10:00:35.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-02-28T18:00:35.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.912Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/418 | Despite fierce resistance, Islamic State militants have reportedly been losing ground and equipment in Mosul since Iraqi government forces and US-led air forces launched a major campaign to recapture the city in October 2016 (<a href = "http://www.iraqinews.com/iraq-war/iraqi-police-catch-10-isis-elements-among-refugees-eastern-mosul/"target="_blank">Iraqi News</a>, <a href = "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/21/kirkuk-police-compound-under-attack-militants-iraq-isis-mosul"target="_blank">The Guardian</a>, <a href = "http://www.atimes.com/battle-mosul-continues-store/"target="_blank">Asia Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/12/iraq-army-mosul-isis-214531"target="_blank">Politico</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/302-before-1-july-2017-will-the-us-endorse-a-peace-plan-which-allows-bashar-al-assad-to-remain-in-power"target="_blank">anyone other than Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi will be proclaimed caliph before 1 October 2017</a> or on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/302-before-1-july-2017-will-the-us-endorse-a-peace-plan-which-allows-bashar-al-assad-to-remain-in-power" target="_blank">the US will endorse a peace plan which allows Bashar al Assad to remain in power</a></sub>
<sub>
Effective 10 July 2017, anti-Islamic State forces have taken Mosul (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-mosul-idUSKBN19V105). This question was closed with "c) Between 1 July 2017 and 30 September 2017".
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-07-10T17:00:42.000Z", "created_at": "2017-02-21T15:52:31.526Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 823, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Before 1 April 2017 ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 253, "predictions_count": 1594, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 418, "question_name": "When will anti-Islamic State forces retake Mosul?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-07-14T13:44:58.952Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:41.615Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-07-10T17:00:42.000Z", "created_at": "2017-02-21T15:52:31.562Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 824, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 1 April 2017 and 30 June 2017, inclusive ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 253, "predictions_count": 1594, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 418, "question_name": "When will anti-Islamic State forces retake Mosul?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-07-14T13:44:41.004Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:41.892Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-07-10T17:00:42.000Z", "created_at": "2017-02-21T15:52:31.613Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 825, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 1 July 2017 and 30 September 2017, inclusive ", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 253, "predictions_count": 1594, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 418, "question_name": "When will anti-Islamic State forces retake Mosul?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-07-14T13:44:23.654Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:42.131Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-07-10T17:00:42.000Z", "created_at": "2017-02-21T15:52:31.659Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 826, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 1 October 2017 and 31 December 2017, inclusive ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 253, "predictions_count": 1594, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 418, "question_name": "When will anti-Islamic State forces retake Mosul?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-07-14T13:44:04.796Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:42.264Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-07-10T17:00:42.000Z", "created_at": "2017-02-21T15:52:31.687Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 827, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Not before 1 January 2018.", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 253, "predictions_count": 1594, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 418, "question_name": "When will anti-Islamic State forces retake Mosul?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-07-14T13:43:45.843Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:42.445Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1806, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-06-08T01:06:27.347Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 33, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "76%", "description": "Despite fierce resistance, Islamic State militants have reportedly been losing ground and equipment in Mosul since Iraqi government forces and US-led air forces launched a major campaign to recapture the city in October 2016 (<a href = \"http://www.iraqinews.com/iraq-war/iraqi-police-catch-10-isis-elements-among-refugees-eastern-mosul/\"target=\"_blank\">Iraqi News</a>, <a href = \"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/21/kirkuk-police-compound-under-attack-militants-iraq-isis-mosul\"target=\"_blank\">The Guardian</a>, <a href = \"http://www.atimes.com/battle-mosul-continues-store/\"target=\"_blank\">Asia Times</a>, <a href = \"http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/12/iraq-army-mosul-isis-214531\"target=\"_blank\">Politico</a>).\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether <a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/302-before-1-july-2017-will-the-us-endorse-a-peace-plan-which-allows-bashar-al-assad-to-remain-in-power\"target=\"_blank\">anyone other than Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi will be proclaimed caliph before 1 October 2017</a> or on whether <a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/302-before-1-july-2017-will-the-us-endorse-a-peace-plan-which-allows-bashar-al-assad-to-remain-in-power\" target=\"_blank\">the US will endorse a peace plan which allows Bashar al Assad to remain in power</a></sub>\r\n<sub>\r\n\r\nEffective 10 July 2017, anti-Islamic State forces have taken Mosul (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-mosul-idUSKBN19V105). This question was closed with \"c) Between 1 July 2017 and 30 September 2017\".\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>", "ends_at": "2018-01-01T07:59:17.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 418, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:34:12.936+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:25:02.786+00:00"}, "name": "When will anti-Islamic State forces retake Mosul?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1594, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 253, "published_at": "2017-02-21T15:52:31.824Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-07-14T13:44:58.966Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-07-10T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-02-21T10:00:17.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-02-21T18:00:17.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.869Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/695 | The top marginal federal corporate tax rate is currently 35% (<a href = "https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/11"target="_blank">Cornell Law</a>, <a href = "https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/27/trumps-tax-reform-plan-would-dramatically-lower-rates-for-businesses-some-individuals.html"target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href = "https://hbr.org/2017/09/a-brief-guide-to-u-s-corporate-tax-reform"target="_blank">Harvard Business Review</a>). The date that any change to the marginal rate would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<a href = "https://hbr.org/ideacast/2017/12/breaking-down-the-new-u-s-corporate-tax-law"target="_blank">H.R. 1 reduced the corporate tax rate to 21%</a>. This question closed as "B) Yes, to a rate greater than 20% but less than 25%" with and end date of 22 December 2017.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-22T18:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-17T17:44:20.228Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1479, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Yes, to a rate of 20% or less", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 134, "predictions_count": 407, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 695, "question_name": "Before 16 February 2018, will President Trump sign legislation that reduces the top marginal federal corporate tax rate?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-27T15:36:52.857Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:55:19.434Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-22T18:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-17T17:44:20.254Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1480, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Yes, to a rate greater than 20% but less than 25%", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 134, "predictions_count": 407, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 695, "question_name": "Before 16 February 2018, will President Trump sign legislation that reduces the top marginal federal corporate tax rate?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-27T15:36:49.715Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:55:20.257Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-22T18:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-17T17:44:20.278Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1481, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Yes, to a rate of 25% or greater", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 134, "predictions_count": 407, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 695, "question_name": "Before 16 February 2018, will President Trump sign legislation that reduces the top marginal federal corporate tax rate?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-27T15:36:45.178Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:55:21.990Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-22T18:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-17T17:44:20.300Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1482, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "No", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 134, "predictions_count": 407, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 695, "question_name": "Before 16 February 2018, will President Trump sign legislation that reduces the top marginal federal corporate tax rate?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-27T15:36:41.734Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:55:23.609Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 440, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-12-12T22:12:20.166Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 10, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "71%", "description": "The top marginal federal corporate tax rate is currently 35% (<a href = \"https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/11\"target=\"_blank\">Cornell Law</a>, <a href = \"https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/27/trumps-tax-reform-plan-would-dramatically-lower-rates-for-businesses-some-individuals.html\"target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>, <a href = \"https://hbr.org/2017/09/a-brief-guide-to-u-s-corporate-tax-reform\"target=\"_blank\">Harvard Business Review</a>). The date that any change to the marginal rate would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n\r\n<a href = \"https://hbr.org/ideacast/2017/12/breaking-down-the-new-u-s-corporate-tax-law\"target=\"_blank\">H.R. 1 reduced the corporate tax rate to 21%</a>. This question closed as \"B) Yes, to a rate greater than 20% but less than 25%\" with and end date of 22 December 2017.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. ", "ends_at": "2018-02-16T07:59:23.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 695, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:43:46.288+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:41:47.573+00:00"}, "name": "Before 16 February 2018, will President Trump sign legislation that reduces the top marginal federal corporate tax rate?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 407, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 134, "published_at": "2017-11-17T17:44:20.365Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-27T15:36:52.879Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-12-22T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-11-17T10:00:23.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-11-17T18:00:23.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.906Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/774 | This question will be resolved using monthly data reported by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (<a href = "https://data.oecd.org/interest/short-term-interest-rates.htm"target="_blank">OECD</a>). Data is retrievable on the 'Short-term interest rates' table on the web site. The relevant country can be found in the HIGHLIGHTED COUNTRIES or LOCATION field, and the relevant time period can be found in the TIME field. Values will be rounded to the nearest one-hundredth. Question will be resolved when the data is released, likely the month after the period of interest.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-08T15:34:03.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:57:30.876Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1681, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Less than 7.09", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 80, "predictions_count": 210, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 774, "question_name": "What will be the short-term interest rate for South Africa (ZAF) in December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-11T15:37:12.774Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:56:15.613Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-08T15:34:03.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:57:30.931Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1682, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 7.09 and 7.5, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 80, "predictions_count": 210, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 774, "question_name": "What will be the short-term interest rate for South Africa (ZAF) in December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-11T15:37:17.775Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:56:16.332Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-08T15:34:03.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:57:30.974Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1683, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 7.5", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 80, "predictions_count": 210, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 774, "question_name": "What will be the short-term interest rate for South Africa (ZAF) in December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-11T15:37:22.249Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:56:18.209Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 211, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-12-20T00:47:36.314Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 12, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "63%", "description": "This question will be resolved using monthly data reported by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (<a href = \"https://data.oecd.org/interest/short-term-interest-rates.htm\"target=\"_blank\">OECD</a>). Data is retrievable on the 'Short-term interest rates' table on the web site.\u00a0The relevant country can be found in the HIGHLIGHTED COUNTRIES or LOCATION field, and the relevant time period can be found in the TIME field. Values will be rounded to the nearest one-hundredth. Question will be resolved when the data is released, likely the month after the period of interest.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>", "ends_at": "2018-01-01T04:59:02.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 774, "image": null, "membership_id": 36637, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:44:09.229+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:43:44.197+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the short-term interest rate for South Africa (ZAF) in December 2017?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 210, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 80, "published_at": "2017-11-29T16:17:16.127Z", "resolution_notes": ["Answer is 7.54 per resolution instructions."], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-11T15:37:22.276Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-12-31T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-11-29T09:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-11-29T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/570 | NHK survey results reveal the approval rate for Japan's cabinet to be 44%. This question closed as "d) Between 41% and 46%, inclusive, with and end date of September 11th, 2017.
This question will be resolved using the approval rate reported for the time of interest on <a href = "https://www.nhk.or.jp/bunken/research/yoron/political/2017.html"target="_blank">Nippon Hōsō Kyōkai (NHK)'s website</a>. The cabinet approval rate is reported as 支持する ("Support to”) in the first table 内閣：安倍内閣 (“Cabinet: Abe Cabinet”) on that page. The question will be resolved using Google Translate services. Months are indicated by their corresponding number (e.g. 1月 = January). If NHK conducts more than one survey in a month, question resolution will be based on the first set of results posted.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-11T06:59:53.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-30T15:30:35.020Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1180, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Less than 32%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 68, "predictions_count": 139, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 570, "question_name": "What will be the approval rate for Japan's cabinet in NHK's monthly survey in September 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-15T17:58:50.924Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:38.264Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-11T06:59:53.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-30T15:30:35.047Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1181, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 32% and 37%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 68, "predictions_count": 139, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 570, "question_name": "What will be the approval rate for Japan's cabinet in NHK's monthly survey in September 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-15T17:58:48.887Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:38.555Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-11T06:59:53.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-30T15:30:35.069Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1182, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 37% but less than 41%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 68, "predictions_count": 139, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 570, "question_name": "What will be the approval rate for Japan's cabinet in NHK's monthly survey in September 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-15T17:58:46.506Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:38.870Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-11T06:59:53.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-30T15:30:35.090Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1183, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 41% and 46%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 68, "predictions_count": 139, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 570, "question_name": "What will be the approval rate for Japan's cabinet in NHK's monthly survey in September 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-15T17:58:44.351Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:39.437Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-09-11T06:59:53.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-30T15:30:35.111Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1184, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 46%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 68, "predictions_count": 139, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 570, "question_name": "What will be the approval rate for Japan's cabinet in NHK's monthly survey in September 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-15T17:58:42.250Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:40.083Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 140, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-09-02T05:56:25.666Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 9, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "18%", "description": "NHK survey results reveal the approval rate for Japan's cabinet to be 44%. This question closed as \"d) Between 41% and 46%, inclusive, with and end date of September 11th, 2017.\r\n\r\nThis question will be resolved using the approval rate reported for the time of interest on <a href = \"https://www.nhk.or.jp/bunken/research/yoron/political/2017.html\"target=\"_blank\">Nippon H\u014ds\u014d Ky\u014dkai (NHK)'s website</a>. The cabinet approval rate is reported as \u652f\u6301\u3059\u308b (\"Support to\u201d) in the first table \u5185\u95a3\uff1a\u5b89\u500d\u5185\u95a3 (\u201cCabinet: Abe Cabinet\u201d) on that page. The question will be resolved using Google Translate services. Months are indicated by their corresponding number (e.g. 1\u6708 = January). If NHK conducts more than one survey in a month, question resolution will be based on the first set of results posted.\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>", "ends_at": "2017-10-01T06:59:22.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 570, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:36:53.989+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:36:26.771+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the approval rate for Japan's cabinet in NHK's monthly survey in September 2017?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 139, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 68, "published_at": "2017-08-30T15:30:35.244Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-15T17:58:50.955Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-09-10T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-08-30T09:00:22.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-08-30T16:00:22.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/124 | This question was closed on with the correct answer "A Republican" with an end date of 8 November. The Republican candidate Donald Trump won the presidential election on November 8.
For more information on the candidates, please see <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/presidential-candidates/" target=“_blank”>Candidates</a>.
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<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/81-who-will-win-the-republican-party-nomination-for-the-us-presidential-election" target = "_blank">Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election?</a>
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<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/147-if-donald-trump-wins-the-republican-nomination-which-party-will-win-the-u-s-presidential-election" target="_blank">(Conditional) If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, which party will win the U.S. presidential election?</a> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-11-08T18:00:54.000Z", "created_at": "2016-01-21T05:28:27.007Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 230, "membership_id": 2, "name": "A Democrat", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 4493, "predictions_count": 10433, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 124, "question_name": "Who will win the 2016 US presidential election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-11-10T20:02:27.528Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:46:24.678Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-11-08T18:00:54.000Z", "created_at": "2016-01-21T05:28:36.299Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 231, "membership_id": 2, "name": "A Republican", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 4493, "predictions_count": 10433, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 124, "question_name": "Who will win the 2016 US presidential election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-11-10T20:00:18.947Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:46:25.065Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-11-08T18:00:54.000Z", "created_at": "2016-01-21T05:28:45.564Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 232, "membership_id": 2, "name": "Other", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 4493, "predictions_count": 10433, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 124, "question_name": "Who will win the 2016 US presidential election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-11-10T19:58:40.869Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:46:26.092Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 11725, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "This question was closed on with the correct answer \"A Republican\" with an end date of 8 November. The Republican candidate Donald Trump won the presidential election on November 8. \r\n\r\nFor more information on the candidates, please see <a href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/presidential-candidates/\" target=\u201c_blank\u201d>Candidates</a>.\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions\r\n\r\n<a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/118-who-will-win-the-democratic-party-nomination-for-the-us-presidential-election/\" target = \"_blank\">Who will win the Democratic Party nomination for the US presidential election?</a>\r\n<a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/81-who-will-win-the-republican-party-nomination-for-the-us-presidential-election\" target = \"_blank\">Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election?</a>\r\n<a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/123-will-the-republican-candidate-for-president-win-the-party-s-nomination-on-the-first-ballot-at-the-party-s-convention-in-july\" target = \"_blank\">Will the Republican candidate for president win the party's nomination on the first ballot at the party's convention in July?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/147-if-donald-trump-wins-the-republican-nomination-which-party-will-win-the-u-s-presidential-election\" target=\"_blank\">(Conditional) If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, which party will win the U.S. presidential election?</a>", "ends_at": "2016-11-08T07:59:48.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 124, "image": null, "membership_id": 2, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:33:14.790+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T01:54:27.200+00:00"}, "name": "Who will win the 2016 US presidential election?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 10433, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 4493, "published_at": "2016-01-21T05:29:22.142Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-11-10T20:02:27.539Z", "scoring_end_time": "2016-11-07T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-01-21T07:51:29.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-01-21T15:51:29.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.840Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/271 | This question was closed as "Between 1 December 2016 and 31 May 2017 with an end date of 22 December 2016 (<a href = "http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/22/middleeast/syrian-regime-takes-full-control-of-aleppo/index.html?adkey=bn"target = "_blank">CNN</a>,<a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/22/world/middleeast/aleppo-syria-evacuation.html?_r=0"target = "_blank"> NY Times</a>,<a href = "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/12/syria-government-recaptures-aleppo-161222184428465.html"target = "_blank"> Aljazeera</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
Government forces backed by Russian airpower continue their offensive to retake the city of Aleppo (<a href="http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/06/syria-aleppo-regime-fsa-wider-battle-takeover.html" target="_blank">Al-Monitor</a>, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-aleppo-idUSKCN0YY0PQ" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="http://www.rferl.org/content/russuan-syrian-forces-step-up-aleppo-bombing/27780782.html" target="_blank">Radio Free Europe</a>). This question involves military operations. See <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question13" target="_blank">here</a> for GJ's FAQ on questions about military operations.
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<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/227" target="_blank">When will anti-Islamic State forces retake Raqqa?</a> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-12-22T18:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2016-08-31T15:58:04.964Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 518, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Before 30 November 2016", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 246, "predictions_count": 959, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 271, "question_name": "When will Syrian government forces retake the city of Aleppo?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-12-22T22:26:58.938Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:56.501Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-12-22T18:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2016-08-31T15:58:04.980Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 519, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Between 1 December 2016 and 31 May 2017, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 246, "predictions_count": 959, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 271, "question_name": "When will Syrian government forces retake the city of Aleppo?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-12-22T22:27:07.439Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:56.972Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-12-22T18:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2016-08-31T15:58:04.998Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 520, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Between 1 June 2017 and 30 November 2017, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 246, "predictions_count": 959, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 271, "question_name": "When will Syrian government forces retake the city of Aleppo?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-12-22T22:27:19.045Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:57.350Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-12-22T18:00:26.000Z", "created_at": "2016-08-31T15:58:05.016Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 521, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Not before 30 November 2017", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 246, "predictions_count": 959, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 271, "question_name": "When will Syrian government forces retake the city of Aleppo?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-12-22T22:27:28.064Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:57.775Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1024, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2016-09-18T16:04:08.330Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 95, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "16%", "description": "This question was closed as \"Between 1 December 2016 and 31 May 2017 with an end date of 22 December 2016 (<a href = \"http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/22/middleeast/syrian-regime-takes-full-control-of-aleppo/index.html?adkey=bn\"target = \"_blank\">CNN</a>,<a href = \"http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/22/world/middleeast/aleppo-syria-evacuation.html?_r=0\"target = \"_blank\"> NY Times</a>,<a href = \"http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/12/syria-government-recaptures-aleppo-161222184428465.html\"target = \"_blank\"> Aljazeera</a>).\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nGovernment forces backed by Russian airpower continue their offensive to retake the city of Aleppo (<a href=\"http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/06/syria-aleppo-regime-fsa-wider-battle-takeover.html\" target=\"_blank\">Al-Monitor</a>, <a href=\"http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-aleppo-idUSKCN0YY0PQ\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>, <a href=\"http://www.rferl.org/content/russuan-syrian-forces-step-up-aleppo-bombing/27780782.html\" target=\"_blank\">Radio Free Europe</a>). This question involves military operations. See <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question13\" target=\"_blank\">here</a> for GJ's FAQ on questions about military operations.\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/265\" target=\"_blank\">Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Libya before 1 January 2017?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/227\" target=\"_blank\">When will anti-Islamic State forces retake Raqqa?</a>", "ends_at": "2017-12-23T07:59:40.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 271, "image": null, "membership_id": 27345, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:13:10.573+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:11:22.744+00:00"}, "name": "When will Syrian government forces retake the city of Aleppo?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 959, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 246, "published_at": "2016-08-31T15:58:05.052Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-12-22T22:27:28.072Z", "scoring_end_time": "2016-12-22T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-08-31T10:00:40.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-08-31T17:00:40.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.853Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/892 | Hydrogen fueling infrastructure is expanding (<a href = "https://www.afdc.energy.gov/fuels/hydrogen.html"target="_blank">U.S. Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center (AFDC)</a>). Air Liquide, in partnership with Toyota, has announced the creation of a chain of 12 hydrogen fueling stations in the Northeast, stretching from New York to Boston (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/18/automobiles/wheels/first-came-the-hydrogen-cars-now-the-refilling-stations.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>). Honda has also announced that an additional 36 stations will be built in California (<a href = "http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-honda-clarity-review-20170401-story.html"target="_blank">LA Times</a>). The State of California has earmarked $200 million for as many as 100 new hydrogen stations in the next several years, and car manufacturers and energy providers are working together to make it happen (<a href = "https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/california-gives-fuel-cell-stations-a-bump-toyota-to-pitch-in#gs.c6rZQ_w"target="_blank">Green Tech Media</a>). This question will be resolved using data for public hydrogen fueling stations from the <a href = "https://www.afdc.energy.gov/fuels/hydrogen_locations.html"target="_blank">AFDC</a>.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
As of 29 June 2018, there were <a href = "https://www.afdc.energy.gov/fuels/hydrogen_locations.html#/analyze?fuel=HY&hy_nonretail=true"target="_blank">40 public hydrogen fueling stations</a> available in the United States. This question closed as "fewer than 45" with an end date of 29 June 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-01T17:00:35.000Z", "created_at": "2018-02-28T17:06:02.824Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1966, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Fewer than 45", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 195, "predictions_count": 435, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 892, "question_name": "On 29 June 2018, how many public hydrogen fueling stations will be available in the United States?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-02T22:45:20.073Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:37.744Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-01T17:00:35.000Z", "created_at": "2018-02-28T17:06:02.892Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1967, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 45 and 55, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 195, "predictions_count": 435, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 892, "question_name": "On 29 June 2018, how many public hydrogen fueling stations will be available in the United States?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-02T22:44:40.609Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:38.136Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-01T17:00:35.000Z", "created_at": "2018-02-28T17:06:02.952Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1968, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 55", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 195, "predictions_count": 435, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 892, "question_name": "On 29 June 2018, how many public hydrogen fueling stations will be available in the United States?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-02T22:45:58.657Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:38.404Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": [{"content": "The Department of Energy modified how their website displays data for public hydrogen fueling stations. To obtain the total, you now need to select \"Include non-retail locations\" on the top-right of the map of the resolution page (<a href = \"https://www.afdc.energy.gov/fuels/hydrogen_locations.html#/find/nearest?fuel=HY\"target=\"_blank\">AFDC</a>).", "created_at": "2018-04-04T15:29:12.832Z", "id": 26, "question_id": 892, "updated_at": "2018-04-04T15:29:12.832Z"}], "comments_count": 500, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-03-09T02:35:41.362Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 112, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "7%", "description": "Hydrogen fueling infrastructure is expanding (<a href = \"https://www.afdc.energy.gov/fuels/hydrogen.html\"target=\"_blank\">U.S. Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center (AFDC)</a>). Air Liquide, in partnership with Toyota, has announced the creation of a chain of 12 hydrogen fueling stations in the Northeast, stretching from New York to Boston (<a href = \"https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/18/automobiles/wheels/first-came-the-hydrogen-cars-now-the-refilling-stations.html\"target=\"_blank\">NY Times</a>). Honda has also announced that an additional 36 stations will be built in California (<a href = \"http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-honda-clarity-review-20170401-story.html\"target=\"_blank\">LA Times</a>). The State of California has earmarked $200 million for as many as 100 new hydrogen stations in the next several years, and car manufacturers and energy providers are working together to make it happen (<a href = \"https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/california-gives-fuel-cell-stations-a-bump-toyota-to-pitch-in#gs.c6rZQ_w\"target=\"_blank\">Green Tech Media</a>). This question will be resolved using data for public hydrogen fueling stations from the <a href = \"https://www.afdc.energy.gov/fuels/hydrogen_locations.html\"target=\"_blank\">AFDC</a>.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nAs of 29 June 2018, there were <a href = \"https://www.afdc.energy.gov/fuels/hydrogen_locations.html#/analyze?fuel=HY&hy_nonretail=true\"target=\"_blank\">40 public hydrogen fueling stations</a> available in the United States. This question closed as \"fewer than 45\" with an end date of 29 June 2018.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-06-29T06:59:53.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 892, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:48:41.950+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:47:38.356+00:00"}, "name": "On 29 June 2018, how many public hydrogen fueling stations will be available in the United States?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 435, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 195, "published_at": "2018-02-28T17:06:03.172Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-02T22:45:58.762Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-06-28T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-02-28T10:00:53.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-02-28T18:00:53.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.912Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/793 | This question will be resolved using the <a href = "https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/"target="_blank">United States Geological Survey's Earthquake Catalog</a>. The relevant data can be found by setting the Magnitude to a Custom Minimum equal to the magnitude of interest; setting the Date & Time to a Custom Start with the first day of interest and End to the last day of interest, leaving the UTC times to the default settings (00:00:00 & 23:59:59). Set Geographic Region to World, click Search beneath Output Options; note the number of earthquakes shown in the top left Search Results window.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-20T03:14:35.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-29T00:04:20.153Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1766, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Less than 57", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 305, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 793, "question_name": "How many earthquakes of magnitude 5 or stronger will occur worldwide between 1 December 2017 and 15 December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-22T14:29:09.926Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:30.748Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-20T03:14:35.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-29T00:04:20.195Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1767, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 57 and 64, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 305, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 793, "question_name": "How many earthquakes of magnitude 5 or stronger will occur worldwide between 1 December 2017 and 15 December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-22T14:28:38.003Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:31.014Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-20T03:14:35.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-29T00:04:20.255Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1768, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 64 but less than 71", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 305, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 793, "question_name": "How many earthquakes of magnitude 5 or stronger will occur worldwide between 1 December 2017 and 15 December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-22T14:28:07.419Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:31.247Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-20T03:14:35.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-29T00:04:20.307Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1769, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 71 and 78, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 305, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 793, "question_name": "How many earthquakes of magnitude 5 or stronger will occur worldwide between 1 December 2017 and 15 December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-22T14:27:37.132Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:31.517Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-20T03:14:35.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-29T00:04:20.366Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1770, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 78", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 69, "predictions_count": 305, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 793, "question_name": "How many earthquakes of magnitude 5 or stronger will occur worldwide between 1 December 2017 and 15 December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-22T14:27:08.228Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:31.663Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 332, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-12-11T06:56:43.116Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 5, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "69%", "description": "This question will be resolved using the <a href = \"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/\"target=\"_blank\">United States Geological Survey's Earthquake Catalog</a>. The relevant data can be found by setting the Magnitude to a Custom Minimum equal to the magnitude of interest; setting the Date & Time to a Custom Start with the first day of interest and End to the last day of interest, leaving the UTC times to the default settings (00:00:00 & 23:59:59). Set Geographic Region to World, click Search beneath Output Options; note the number of earthquakes shown in the top left Search Results window. \r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n", "ends_at": "2017-12-16T04:59:42.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 793, "image": null, "membership_id": 36637, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:45:13.589+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:44:33.030+00:00"}, "name": "How many earthquakes of magnitude 5 or stronger will occur worldwide between 1 December 2017 and 15 December 2017?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 305, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 69, "published_at": "2017-11-29T15:35:42.333Z", "resolution_notes": ["54\r\n\r\nhttps://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/#%7B%22feed%22%3A%221513739754418%22%2C%22sort%22%3A%22newest%22%2C%22mapposition%22%3A%5B%5B-85%2C0%5D%2C%5B85%2C360%5D%5D%2C%22viewModes%22%3A%5B%22list%22%2C%22map%22%5D%2C%22autoUpdate%22%3Afalse%2C%22search%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A%221513739754418%22%2C%22name%22%3A%22Search%20Results%22%2C%22isSearch%22%3Atrue%2C%22params%22%3A%7B%22starttime%22%3A%222017-12-1%2000%3A00%3A00%22%2C%22endtime%22%3A%222017-12-15%2023%3A59%3A59%22%2C%22minmagnitude%22%3A5%2C%22orderby%22%3A%22time%22%7D%7D%7D"], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-22T14:29:10.109Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-12-15T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-11-29T09:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-11-29T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/356 | This question was closed on "Maintain" with an end date of 19 January 2017. (<a href = "http://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/ecb-january-meeting, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ecb-policy-idUSKBN152358"target = "_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>)
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
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The European Central Bank cut its deposit rate into negative territory for the first time in June 2014, meaning that commercial banks are charged for the privilege of depositing money overnight at the central bank. In October 2016 the ECB maintained the deposit rate at -0.40%, but Europe’s weak economic recovery has raised speculation about further decreases (<a href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2016/html/pr161020.en.html" target="_blank">European Central Bank</a>, <a href="http://www.theworldin.com/article/12773/tear-textbook" target="_blank">The World in 2017</a>). The January meeting is scheduled for 19 January 2017. The Governing Council's Monetary Policy Decisions can be found <a href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/govcdec/mopo/html/index.en.html" target="_blank">here</a> and historical data on ECB interest rates can be found <a href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/monetary/rates/html/index.en.html" target="_blank">here</a>.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/307" target="_blank">US farmland values in the first quarter of 2017</a> or <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/183" target="_blank">inflation in the G7</a>.</sub> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-01-19T18:00:13.000Z", "created_at": "2016-11-22T17:31:10.342Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 660, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Raise", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 751, "predictions_count": 1047, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 356, "question_name": "What will the European Central Bank (ECB) do with respect to the deposit rate at its January 2017 monetary-policy meeting?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-01-20T18:14:08.614Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:36.863Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-01-19T18:00:13.000Z", "created_at": "2016-11-22T17:31:10.359Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 661, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Maintain", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 751, "predictions_count": 1047, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 356, "question_name": "What will the European Central Bank (ECB) do with respect to the deposit rate at its January 2017 monetary-policy meeting?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-01-20T18:13:01.736Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:37.024Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-01-19T18:00:13.000Z", "created_at": "2016-11-22T17:31:10.373Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 662, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Lower", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 751, "predictions_count": 1047, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 356, "question_name": "What will the European Central Bank (ECB) do with respect to the deposit rate at its January 2017 monetary-policy meeting?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-01-20T18:15:16.044Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:37.233Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1079, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2016-11-22T20:18:02.449Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 57, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "This question was closed on \"Maintain\" with an end date of 19 January 2017. (<a href = \"http://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/ecb-january-meeting, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ecb-policy-idUSKBN152358\"target = \"_blank\">Wall Street Journal</a>)\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nThe European Central Bank cut its deposit rate into negative territory for the first time in June 2014, meaning that commercial banks are charged for the privilege of depositing money overnight at the central bank. In October 2016 the ECB maintained the deposit rate at -0.40%, but Europe\u2019s weak economic recovery has raised speculation about further decreases (<a href=\"https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2016/html/pr161020.en.html\" target=\"_blank\">European Central Bank</a>, <a href=\"http://www.theworldin.com/article/12773/tear-textbook\" target=\"_blank\">The World in 2017</a>). The January meeting is scheduled for 19 January 2017. The Governing Council's Monetary Policy Decisions can be found <a href=\"https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/govcdec/mopo/html/index.en.html\" target=\"_blank\">here</a> and historical data on ECB interest rates can be found <a href=\"https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/monetary/rates/html/index.en.html\" target=\"_blank\">here</a>.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/307\" target=\"_blank\">US farmland values in the first quarter of 2017</a> or <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/183\" target=\"_blank\">inflation in the G7</a>.</sub>", "ends_at": "2017-01-19T07:59:47.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 356, "image": null, "membership_id": 27345, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:20:19.978+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:16:19.442+00:00"}, "name": "What will the European Central Bank (ECB) do with respect to the deposit rate at its January 2017 monetary-policy meeting?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1047, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 751, "published_at": "2016-11-22T17:31:10.434Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-01-20T18:15:16.087Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-01-18T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-11-22T10:00:47.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-11-22T18:00:47.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.858Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/234 | This question was closed with the answer "Timothy Kaine" on 25 July 2016 with an end date of 22 July 2016. On 22 July 2016, Hillary Clinton announced via a tweet to her supporters that Tim Kaine would be her vice presidential running mate (<a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/22/politics/hillary-clinton-vp-pick/" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/24/us/politics/hillary-clinton-tim-kaine-vice-president.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>).
<br/>
The Clinton campaign has begun vetting potential vice presidential candidates (<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/clinton-is-vetting-three-for-vice-president--and-is-still-studying-a-longer-list/2016/06/21/548fedc0-37cb-11e6-9ccd-d6005beac8b3_story.html" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>, <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/here-s-who-hillary-clinton-could-pick-her-vp-n598011" target="_blank">NBC News</a>, <a href="http://www.voanews.com/content/clinton-trump-eye-vice-presidential-running-mates/3405245.html" target="_blank">Voice of America</a>, <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/vp-watch-latest-veepstakes-n604946" target="_blank">NBC News</a>).
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<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/206" target="_blank">Will Donald Trump pick one of the former candidates for the Republican nomination as his vice presidential running mate?</a> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-07-23T00:00:24.000Z", "created_at": "2016-07-08T14:49:10.080Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 428, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "Cory Booker", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 224, "predictions_count": 589, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 234, "question_name": "Who will Hillary Clinton pick as her vice presidential running mate?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-07-25T13:27:55.835Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:14.539Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-07-23T00:00:24.000Z", "created_at": "2016-07-08T14:49:10.101Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 429, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "Sherrod Brown", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 224, "predictions_count": 589, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 234, "question_name": "Who will Hillary Clinton pick as her vice presidential running mate?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-07-25T13:28:13.161Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:14.790Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-07-23T00:00:24.000Z", "created_at": "2016-07-08T14:49:10.116Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 430, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "Julian Castro", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 224, "predictions_count": 589, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 234, "question_name": "Who will Hillary Clinton pick as her vice presidential running mate?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-07-25T13:28:32.323Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:15.540Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-07-23T00:00:24.000Z", "created_at": "2016-07-08T14:49:10.134Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 431, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "Timothy Kaine", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 224, "predictions_count": 589, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 234, "question_name": "Who will Hillary Clinton pick as her vice presidential running mate?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-07-25T13:28:53.174Z", 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"2016-07-08T14:49:10.164Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 433, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 224, "predictions_count": 589, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 234, "question_name": "Who will Hillary Clinton pick as her vice presidential running mate?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-07-25T13:29:33.191Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:18.801Z"}], "answers_count": 6, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 623, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2016-07-12T01:10:26.498Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 11, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "21%", "description": "This question was closed with the answer \"Timothy Kaine\" on 25 July 2016 with an end date of 22 July 2016. On 22 July 2016, Hillary Clinton announced via a tweet to her supporters that Tim Kaine would be her vice presidential running mate (<a href=\"http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/22/politics/hillary-clinton-vp-pick/\" target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>, <a href=\"http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/24/us/politics/hillary-clinton-tim-kaine-vice-president.html\" target=\"_blank\">NY Times</a>).\r\n\r\n<br/>\r\n\r\nThe Clinton campaign has begun vetting potential vice presidential candidates (<a href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/clinton-is-vetting-three-for-vice-president--and-is-still-studying-a-longer-list/2016/06/21/548fedc0-37cb-11e6-9ccd-d6005beac8b3_story.html\" target=\"_blank\">Washington Post</a>, <a href=\"http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/here-s-who-hillary-clinton-could-pick-her-vp-n598011\" target=\"_blank\">NBC News</a>, <a href=\"http://www.voanews.com/content/clinton-trump-eye-vice-presidential-running-mates/3405245.html\" target=\"_blank\">Voice of America</a>, <a href=\"http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/vp-watch-latest-veepstakes-n604946\" target=\"_blank\">NBC News</a>).\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/124\" target=\"_blank\">Who will win the 2016 US presidential election?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/206\" target=\"_blank\">Will Donald Trump pick one of the former candidates for the Republican nomination as his vice presidential running mate?</a>", "ends_at": "2016-09-01T06:59:23.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 234, "image": null, "membership_id": 4461, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:10:25.823+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:07:10.410+00:00"}, "name": "Who will Hillary Clinton pick as her vice presidential running mate?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 589, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 224, "published_at": "2016-07-08T14:49:10.208Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-07-25T13:29:33.224Z", "scoring_end_time": "2016-07-22T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-07-08T10:00:23.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-07-08T17:00:23.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.840Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/925 | In September 2017, President Trump issued a Proclamation that put substantial limitations on the entry of citizens from six Muslim-majority countries (<a href = "https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/presidential-proclamation-enhancing-vetting-capabilities-processes-detecting-attempted-entry-united-states-terrorists-public-safety-threats/"taget="_blank">The White House</a>). A District Court granted a preliminary injunction preventing enforcement of a large part of the Proclamation, and the Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit affirmed, for the most part, the District Court's injunction (<a href = "http://www.scotusblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/17-965-opinion-below.pdf, https://www.oyez.org/cases/2017/17-965"target="_blank">SCOTUS Blog</a>). President Trump appealed (<a href = "http://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/trump-v-hawaii-3"target="_blank">SCOTUS Blog</a>). "Likely violates" refers to a situation in which the Court makes a decision on the Establishment Clause for the purposes of ruling on the preliminary injunction, but does not make a direct ruling on the proclamation. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its current term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as No.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
The Supreme Court did rule on whether the September 2017 Presidential Proclamation on immigration violates or likely violates the Establishment Clause of the Constitution, and it <a href = "https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/17pdf/17-965_h315.pdf"target="_blank">ruled that it did not</a>. This question closed as "b) Yes, and will rule that it does not" with an end date of 26 June 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-26T17:00:33.000Z", "created_at": "2018-04-04T16:21:50.562Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2030, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Yes, and will rule that it does", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 94, "predictions_count": 188, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 925, "question_name": "In Trump v. Hawaii, will the Supreme Court rule on whether the September 2017 Presidential Proclamation on immigration violates or likely violates the Establishment Clause of the Constitution?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-06-27T15:06:55.515Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:59.059Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-26T17:00:33.000Z", "created_at": "2018-04-04T16:21:50.594Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2031, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Yes, and will rule that it does not", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 94, "predictions_count": 188, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 925, "question_name": "In Trump v. Hawaii, will the Supreme Court rule on whether the September 2017 Presidential Proclamation on immigration violates or likely violates the Establishment Clause of the Constitution?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-06-27T15:07:07.276Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:59.365Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-26T17:00:33.000Z", "created_at": "2018-04-04T16:21:50.653Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2032, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "No", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 94, "predictions_count": 188, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 925, "question_name": "In Trump v. Hawaii, will the Supreme Court rule on whether the September 2017 Presidential Proclamation on immigration violates or likely violates the Establishment Clause of the Constitution?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-06-27T15:07:15.758Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:00.813Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 228, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-05-23T17:20:27.186Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 34, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "59%", "description": "In September 2017, President Trump issued a Proclamation that put substantial limitations on the entry of citizens from six Muslim-majority countries (<a href = \"https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/presidential-proclamation-enhancing-vetting-capabilities-processes-detecting-attempted-entry-united-states-terrorists-public-safety-threats/\"taget=\"_blank\">The White House</a>). A District Court granted a preliminary injunction preventing enforcement of a large part of the Proclamation, and the Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit affirmed, for the most part, the District Court's injunction (<a href = \"http://www.scotusblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/17-965-opinion-below.pdf, https://www.oyez.org/cases/2017/17-965\"target=\"_blank\">SCOTUS Blog</a>). President Trump appealed (<a href = \"http://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/trump-v-hawaii-3\"target=\"_blank\">SCOTUS Blog</a>). \"Likely violates\" refers to a situation in which the Court makes a decision on the Establishment Clause for the purposes of ruling on the preliminary injunction, but does not make a direct ruling on the proclamation. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its current term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as No.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nThe Supreme Court did rule on whether the September 2017 Presidential Proclamation on immigration violates or likely violates the Establishment Clause of the Constitution, and it <a href = \"https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/17pdf/17-965_h315.pdf\"target=\"_blank\">ruled that it did not</a>. This question closed as \"b) Yes, and will rule that it does not\" with an end date of 26 June 2018.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-07-15T06:59:02.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 925, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:50:03.633+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:49:30.466+00:00"}, "name": "In Trump v. Hawaii, will the Supreme Court rule on whether the September 2017 Presidential Proclamation on immigration violates or likely violates the Establishment Clause of the Constitution?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 188, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 94, "published_at": "2018-04-04T16:21:50.737Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-06-27T15:07:15.786Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-06-26T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-04-04T10:00:02.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-04-04T17:00:02.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.929Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/554 | A special election for the Washington State Senate's 45th district is attracting national attention as the next electoral flashpoint between Democrats and Republicans. If Democrats win, they would gain total control of Washington's state government, making it the party's seventh state government trifecta in the country. (<a href = "http://www.politico.com/story/2017/07/03/next-national-special-election-clash-240154http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/07/the-next-multi-million-dollar-special-election-is-in-seattle.html"target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href = "http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/washington-state-senate-race-results/"target="_blank">The Seattle Times</a>)
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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Manka Dhingra (Democrat) won Washington's special election by a margin greater than 5%. This question closed as "a) Manka Dhingra (Democrat) by a margin greater than 5%" with an end date of 8 November 2017.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
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| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-08T18:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-11T16:34:39.226Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1125, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Manka Dhingra (Democrat) by a margin greater than 5%", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 64, "predictions_count": 183, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 554, "question_name": "Who will win the special election for the Washington State Senate's 45th District?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-02-02T16:44:03.681Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:49.469Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-08T18:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-11T16:34:39.241Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1126, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Manka Dhingra (Democrat) by a margin of 5% or less ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 64, "predictions_count": 183, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 554, "question_name": "Who will win the special election for the Washington State Senate's 45th District?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-02-02T16:44:07.975Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:49.725Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-08T18:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-11T16:34:39.254Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1127, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Jinyoung Lee Englund (Republican) by a margin of 5% or less ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 64, "predictions_count": 183, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 554, "question_name": "Who will win the special election for the Washington State Senate's 45th District?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-02-02T16:43:50.843Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:50.052Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-08T18:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-11T16:34:39.268Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1128, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Jinyoung Lee Englund (Republican) by a margin greater than 5% ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 64, "predictions_count": 183, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 554, "question_name": "Who will win the special election for the Washington State Senate's 45th District?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-02-02T16:43:54.350Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:50.474Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-08T18:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-11T16:34:39.281Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1129, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "None of the above ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 64, "predictions_count": 183, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 554, "question_name": "Who will win the special election for the Washington State Senate's 45th District?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-02-02T16:43:59.068Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:50.880Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 185, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-08-31T03:15:35.632Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 69, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "22%", "description": "A special election for the Washington State Senate's 45th district is attracting national attention as the next electoral flashpoint between Democrats and Republicans. If Democrats win, they would gain total control of Washington's state government, making it the party's seventh state government trifecta in the country. (<a href = \"http://www.politico.com/story/2017/07/03/next-national-special-election-clash-240154http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/07/the-next-multi-million-dollar-special-election-is-in-seattle.html\"target=\"_blank\">Politico</a>, <a href = \"http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/washington-state-senate-race-results/\"target=\"_blank\">The Seattle Times</a>)\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nManka Dhingra (Democrat) won Washington's special election by a margin greater than 5%. This question closed as \"a) Manka Dhingra (Democrat) by a margin greater than 5%\" with an end date of 8 November 2017.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n", "ends_at": "2017-11-08T07:59:37.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 554, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:36:06.093+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:34:18.610+00:00"}, "name": "Who will win the special election for the Washington State Senate's 45th District?\r\n", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 183, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 64, "published_at": "2017-08-11T16:34:39.363Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-02-02T16:44:08.005Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-11-07T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-08-11T10:00:37.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-08-11T17:00:37.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.863Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/472 | President Trump's economic plans aim to return the U.S. to 4 percent annual economic growth (<a href = "https://www.whitehouse.gov/bringing-back-jobs-and-growth"target="_blank">The White House</a>, <a href = "http://www.theworldin.com/article/12604/making-recession-great-again"target="_blank">The Economist</a>, <a href = "http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-4-gdp-growth-promise-2017-1"target="_blank">Business Insider</a>). This question will be resolved based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis's "advance" estimate of the United States' real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2017 (<a href = "https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/news_release_sort_national.htm"target="_blank">Bureau of Economic Analysis</a>). The advance estimate, which measures quarter-on-quarter growth using seasonally adjusted annual rates, for Q4 2016 can be found here (<a href = "https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2017/gdp4q16_adv.htm"target="_blank">Bureau of Economic Analysis</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and closed when Q2 data are released, typically in late July.
According to the data released by the BEA , "Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the second quarter of 2017." This question closed with an answer of "c) More than 2% but less than 3%".
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
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| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-06-30T17:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2017-04-18T16:38:04.555Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 929, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Less than 1%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 226, "predictions_count": 730, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 472, "question_name": "What will be the U.S. real quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-08-01T17:25:00.436Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:20.851Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-06-30T17:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2017-04-18T16:38:04.590Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 930, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 1% and 2%, inclusive ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 226, "predictions_count": 730, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 472, "question_name": "What will be the U.S. real quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-08-01T17:24:53.358Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:21.239Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-06-30T17:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2017-04-18T16:38:04.615Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 931, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 2% but less than 3% ", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 226, "predictions_count": 730, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 472, "question_name": "What will be the U.S. real quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-08-01T17:24:46.383Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:21.715Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-06-30T17:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2017-04-18T16:38:04.629Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 932, "membership_id": 29512, "name": " 3% or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 226, "predictions_count": 730, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 472, "question_name": "What will be the U.S. real quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-08-01T17:24:40.249Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:22.182Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 745, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-05-27T18:35:44.724Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 34, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "53%", "description": "President Trump's economic plans aim to return the U.S. to 4 percent annual economic growth (<a href = \"https://www.whitehouse.gov/bringing-back-jobs-and-growth\"target=\"_blank\">The White House</a>, <a href = \"http://www.theworldin.com/article/12604/making-recession-great-again\"target=\"_blank\">The Economist</a>, <a href = \"http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-4-gdp-growth-promise-2017-1\"target=\"_blank\">Business Insider</a>). This question will be resolved based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis's \"advance\" estimate of the United States' real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2017 (<a href = \"https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/news_release_sort_national.htm\"target=\"_blank\">Bureau of Economic Analysis</a>). The advance estimate, which measures quarter-on-quarter growth using seasonally adjusted annual rates, for Q4 2016 can be found here (<a href = \"https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2017/gdp4q16_adv.htm\"target=\"_blank\">Bureau of Economic Analysis</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and closed when Q2 data are released, typically in late July.\r\n\r\nAccording to the data released by the BEA , \"Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the second quarter of 2017.\" This question closed with an answer of \"c) More than 2% but less than 3%\".\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n", "ends_at": "2017-07-01T06:59:57.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 472, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:29:47.486+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:28:13.173+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the U.S. real quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2017?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 730, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 226, "published_at": "2017-04-18T16:38:04.741Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-08-01T17:25:00.447Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-06-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-04-18T10:00:57.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-04-18T17:00:57.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.858Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/243 | This question was closed on "Tyler Wright" with an end date of 12 October 2016. Tyler Wright was crowned the 2016 World Champion at Roxy Pro France (<a href="http://www.worldsurfleague.com/posts/226555/tyler-wright-crowned-2016-world-champion-at-roxy-pro-france" target="_blank">World Surf League</a>).
The Women's Samsung Galaxy Championship Tour kicked off in March and will end on 6 December with the Maui Women's Pro (<a href="http://www.worldsurfleague.com/events/2016/wct" target="_blank">World Surf League</a>, <a href="http://www.sportette.com.au/sportettes-preview-of-the-2016-womens-world-surfing-tour/" target="_blank">Sportette</a>). See the official <a href="http://www.worldsurfleague.com/athletes/tour/wct?year=2016" target="_blank">WSL 2016 Women’s Championship Tour Leaderboard</a> for rankings.
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<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/44-will-roger-goodell-be-commissioner-of-the-nfl-at-the-start-of-the-2016-regular-season" target="_blank"> Will Roger Goodell be commissioner of the NFL at the start of the 2016 regular season?</a> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-10-12T17:00:57.000Z", "created_at": "2016-07-19T16:28:51.146Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 456, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "Courtney Conlogue", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 30, "predictions_count": 156, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 243, "question_name": "Who will win the Women's World Surf League Championship Tour?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-10-14T17:36:53.448Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:29.130Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-10-12T17:00:57.000Z", "created_at": "2016-07-19T16:28:51.165Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 457, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "Tyler Wright", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 30, "predictions_count": 156, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 243, "question_name": "Who will win the Women's World Surf League Championship Tour?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-10-14T17:37:07.248Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:29.647Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-10-12T17:00:57.000Z", "created_at": "2016-07-19T16:28:51.211Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 458, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "Carissa Moore", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 30, "predictions_count": 156, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 243, "question_name": "Who will win the Women's World Surf League Championship Tour?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-10-14T17:37:14.581Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:30.036Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-10-12T17:00:57.000Z", "created_at": "2016-07-19T16:28:51.231Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 459, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 30, "predictions_count": 156, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 243, "question_name": "Who will win the Women's World Surf League Championship Tour?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-10-14T17:37:00.391Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:30.413Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 177, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2016-07-29T09:42:32.929Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 75, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "12%", "description": "This question was closed on \"Tyler Wright\" with an end date of 12 October 2016. Tyler Wright was crowned the 2016 World Champion at Roxy Pro France (<a href=\"http://www.worldsurfleague.com/posts/226555/tyler-wright-crowned-2016-world-champion-at-roxy-pro-france\" target=\"_blank\">World Surf League</a>). \r\n\r\nThe Women's Samsung Galaxy Championship Tour kicked off in March and will end on 6 December with the Maui Women's Pro (<a href=\"http://www.worldsurfleague.com/events/2016/wct\" target=\"_blank\">World Surf League</a>, <a href=\"http://www.sportette.com.au/sportettes-preview-of-the-2016-womens-world-surfing-tour/\" target=\"_blank\">Sportette</a>). See the official <a href=\"http://www.worldsurfleague.com/athletes/tour/wct?year=2016\" target=\"_blank\">WSL 2016 Women\u2019s Championship Tour Leaderboard</a> for rankings.\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions:\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/213-which-country-will-win-the-most-gold-medals-in-brazil-this-summer\" target=\"_blank\"> Which country will win the most gold medals in Brazil this summer?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/44-will-roger-goodell-be-commissioner-of-the-nfl-at-the-start-of-the-2016-regular-season\" target=\"_blank\"> Will Roger Goodell be commissioner of the NFL at the start of the 2016 regular season?</a>", "ends_at": "2016-12-07T07:59:27.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 243, "image": null, "membership_id": 4461, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:08:28.222+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:08:06.795+00:00"}, "name": "Who will win the Women's World Surf League Championship Tour?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 156, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 30, "published_at": "2016-07-19T16:28:51.298Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-10-14T17:37:14.629Z", "scoring_end_time": "2016-10-12T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-07-19T10:00:27.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-07-19T17:00:27.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.822Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/306 | In October 2015, as they had done on several previous occasions, South and North Korea organized reunions involving relatives separated since the Korean war by the peninsula's partition (<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/20/north-korean-families-reunited-with-relatives-from-south-after-six-decades" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/21/world/asia/north-and-south-koreans-meet-in-emotional-family-reunions.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>).
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<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/130" target="_blank">Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Myanmar before 1 January 2017?</a>
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No Korean family reunions took place. This question closed as "Not before 1 October 2017," with an end date of 1 October 2017.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-01T17:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2016-10-18T15:48:52.053Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 601, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Before 1 January 2017", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 211, "predictions_count": 1262, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 306, "question_name": "When will another round of in-person Korean family reunions take place?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-04T19:20:10.389Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:26.570Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-01T17:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2016-10-18T15:48:52.070Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 602, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Between 1 January 2017 and 31 March 2017, inclusive ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 211, "predictions_count": 1262, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 306, "question_name": "When will another round of in-person Korean family reunions take place?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-04T19:18:05.847Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:26.907Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-01T17:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2016-10-18T15:48:52.084Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 603, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Between 1 April 2017 and 30 June 2017, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 211, "predictions_count": 1262, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 306, "question_name": "When will another round of in-person Korean family reunions take place?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-04T19:16:08.327Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:27.295Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-01T17:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2016-10-18T15:48:52.102Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 604, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Between 1 July 2017 and 30 September 2017, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 211, "predictions_count": 1262, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 306, "question_name": "When will another round of in-person Korean family reunions take place?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-04T19:14:18.681Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:27.653Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-01T17:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2016-10-18T15:48:52.118Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 605, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Not before 1 October 2017", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 211, "predictions_count": 1262, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 306, "question_name": "When will another round of in-person Korean family reunions take place?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-04T19:12:32.889Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:28.124Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1270, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2016-10-18T18:46:20.214Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 347, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "In October 2015, as they had done on several previous occasions, South and North Korea organized reunions involving relatives separated since the Korean war by the peninsula's partition (<a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/20/north-korean-families-reunited-with-relatives-from-south-after-six-decades\" target=\"_blank\">The Guardian</a>, <a href=\"http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/21/world/asia/north-and-south-koreans-meet-in-emotional-family-reunions.html\" target=\"_blank\">NY Times</a>). \r\n\r\nRecommended Questions\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/130\" target=\"_blank\">Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Myanmar before 1 January 2017?</a>\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nNo Korean family reunions took place. This question closed as \"Not before 1 October 2017,\" with an end date of 1 October 2017.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>", "ends_at": "2017-10-01T06:59:54.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 306, "image": null, "membership_id": 27345, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:16:28.604+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:14:16.149+00:00"}, "name": "When will another round of in-person Korean family reunions take place?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1262, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 211, "published_at": "2016-10-18T15:48:52.168Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-04T19:20:10.831Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-09-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-10-18T10:00:54.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-10-18T17:00:54.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.869Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/884 | The Academy Awards<sup>®</sup> take place on March 4th (<a href = "http://oscar.go.com/nominees/best-picture"target="_blank">The Oscars</a>). To enable night of forecasting, this question will remain open through the end of March 4th. Forecasts made through roughly 15 minutes prior to the award announcement will be scored.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
The Shape of Water won the 2018 Academy Award for Best Picture. (<a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/arts-and-entertainment/wp/2018/03/04/oscars-2018-complete-coverage-of-the-90th-academy-awards/?utm_term=.390e9ecf77c9"target="_blank">The Washington Post</a>)
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-03-05T04:30:05.000Z", "created_at": "2018-02-01T14:34:47.389Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1925, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Call Me by Your Name", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 260, "predictions_count": 390, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 884, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2018 Academy Award<sup>®</sup> for Best Picture?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-03-05T18:28:24.285Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:17.576Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-03-05T04:30:05.000Z", "created_at": "2018-02-01T14:34:47.420Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, 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"resolved_at": "2018-03-05T18:27:44.722Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:20.178Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-03-05T04:30:05.000Z", "created_at": "2018-02-01T14:34:47.644Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1932, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "The Shape of Water", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 260, "predictions_count": 390, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 884, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2018 Academy Award<sup>®</sup> for Best Picture?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-03-05T18:27:38.587Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 7, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:20.675Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-03-05T04:30:05.000Z", "created_at": "2018-02-01T14:34:47.675Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1933, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 260, "predictions_count": 390, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 884, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2018 Academy Award<sup>®</sup> for Best Picture?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-03-05T18:27:31.737Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 8, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:21.251Z"}], "answers_count": 9, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 434, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-02-06T06:21:33.625Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 27, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "16%", "description": "The Academy Awards<sup>®</sup> take place on March 4th (<a href = \"http://oscar.go.com/nominees/best-picture\"target=\"_blank\">The Oscars</a>). To enable night of forecasting, this question will remain open through the end of March 4th. Forecasts made through roughly 15 minutes prior to the award announcement will be scored.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nThe Shape of Water won the 2018 Academy Award for Best Picture. (<a href = \"https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/arts-and-entertainment/wp/2018/03/04/oscars-2018-complete-coverage-of-the-90th-academy-awards/?utm_term=.390e9ecf77c9\"target=\"_blank\">The Washington Post</a>)\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>.\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-03-05T07:59:01.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 884, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:49:50.682+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:47:02.033+00:00"}, "name": "Which film will win the 2018 Academy Award<sup>®</sup> for Best Picture?\r\n", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 390, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 260, "published_at": "2018-02-01T14:34:47.783Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-03-05T18:28:24.315Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-03-04T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-02-01T06:34:47.783-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-01-31T18:00:01.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.943Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/249 | This question was closed with the correct answer 'Hillary Clinton' with an end date of 8 November 2016. Hillary Clinton won the state of Virginia on November 8. (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/president" target="_blank">NY Times</a>)
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>
<hr>
The presidential race in Virginia is likely to be competitive (<a href="https://www.yahoo.com/news/swing-states-states-decide-2016-214642656.html?ref=gs" target="_blank">Yahoo! News</a>, <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/02/the-most-valuable-voters-of-2016/431865/" target="_blank">The Atlantic</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/23/the-fixs-first-2016-electoral-college-ratings-are-here/" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>).
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<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/248" target="_blank">Which presidential candidate will win North Carolina?</a> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-11-08T18:00:37.000Z", "created_at": "2016-07-29T16:00:26.022Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 471, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Hillary Clinton", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 538, "predictions_count": 1361, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 249, "question_name": "Which presidential candidate will win Virginia?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-11-17T19:06:30.277Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:36.278Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-11-08T18:00:37.000Z", "created_at": "2016-07-29T16:00:26.053Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 472, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Donald Trump", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 538, "predictions_count": 1361, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 249, "question_name": "Which presidential candidate will win Virginia?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-11-17T19:06:11.690Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:36.634Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-11-08T18:00:37.000Z", "created_at": "2016-07-29T16:00:26.078Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 473, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 538, "predictions_count": 1361, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 249, "question_name": "Which presidential candidate will win Virginia?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-11-17T19:06:47.612Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:37.405Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1379, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2016-07-29T17:32:48.560Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 102, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "This question was closed with the correct answer 'Hillary Clinton' with an end date of 8 November 2016. Hillary Clinton won the state of Virginia on November 8. (<a href=\"http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/president\" target=\"_blank\">NY Times</a>)\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a> \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nThe presidential race in Virginia is likely to be competitive (<a href=\"https://www.yahoo.com/news/swing-states-states-decide-2016-214642656.html?ref=gs\" target=\"_blank\">Yahoo! News</a>, <a href=\"http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/02/the-most-valuable-voters-of-2016/431865/\" target=\"_blank\">The Atlantic</a>, <a href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/23/the-fixs-first-2016-electoral-college-ratings-are-here/\" target=\"_blank\">Washington Post</a>).\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/124\" target=\"_blank\">Who will win the 2016 US presidential election?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/247\" target=\"_blank\">Which presidential candidate will win Georgia?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/248\" target=\"_blank\">Which presidential candidate will win North Carolina?</a>", "ends_at": "2016-11-09T07:59:32.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 249, "image": null, "membership_id": 27345, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:13:25.413+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:09:01.309+00:00"}, "name": "Which presidential candidate will win Virginia?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1361, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 538, "published_at": "2016-07-29T16:00:26.137Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-11-17T19:06:47.629Z", "scoring_end_time": "2016-11-08T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-07-29T10:00:32.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-07-29T17:00:32.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.840Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/544 | The Kaesong Industrial Complex, the hallmark of peaceful engagement between North Korea and South Korea during the previous sunshine period, was closed in February 2016 after North Korea's fourth nuclear test (<a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/business-22011178"target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/10/seoul-shuts-down-joint-north-south-korea-industrial-complex-kaesong"target="_blank">The Guardian</a>). Moon Jae-In, South Korea's new President promised to seek rapprochement with North Korea, including by re-opening Kaesong (<a href = "http://thediplomat.com/2017/05/does-moon-jae-ins-victory-herald-a-new-dawn-for-the-sunshine-policy/"target="_blank">The Diplomat</a>, <a href = "http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20170712000587"target="_blank">The Korea Herald</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as "Not before 1 August 2018" with an end date of 1 August 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-08-01T17:00:43.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-01T14:11:22.278Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1091, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Before 1 November 2017", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 492, "predictions_count": 1690, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 544, "question_name": "When will it be announced that the Kaesong Industrial Complex is reopening?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-08-03T18:02:32.677Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:24.172Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-08-01T17:00:43.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-01T14:11:22.298Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1092, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 1 November 2017 and 31 January 2018, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 492, "predictions_count": 1690, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 544, "question_name": "When will it be announced that the Kaesong Industrial Complex is reopening?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-08-03T18:01:37.591Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:24.456Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-08-01T17:00:43.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-01T14:11:22.321Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1093, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 1 February 2018 and 30 April 2018, inclusive ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 492, "predictions_count": 1690, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 544, "question_name": "When will it be announced that the Kaesong Industrial Complex is reopening?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-08-03T17:59:59.794Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:25.666Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-08-01T17:00:43.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-01T14:11:22.341Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1094, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 1 May 2018 and 31 July 2018, inclusive ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 492, "predictions_count": 1690, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 544, "question_name": "When will it be announced that the Kaesong Industrial Complex is reopening?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-08-03T17:59:27.638Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:26.828Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-08-01T17:00:43.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-01T14:11:22.368Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1095, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Not before 1 August 2018", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 492, "predictions_count": 1690, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 544, "question_name": "When will it be announced that the Kaesong Industrial Complex is reopening?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-08-03T18:00:33.548Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:27.525Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": [{"content": "As referenced in the \"More Info\" Section, the Kaesong Industrial Complex is a suspended joint economic development project between North Korea and South Korea. An announcement of it being unilaterally reopened by either side will not suffice.", "created_at": "2017-10-17T14:59:04.519Z", "id": 13, "question_id": 544, "updated_at": "2017-10-17T14:59:04.519Z"}], "comments_count": 1748, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-08-02T17:12:11.853Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 362, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "The Kaesong Industrial Complex, the hallmark of peaceful engagement between North Korea and South Korea during the previous sunshine period, was closed in February 2016 after North Korea's fourth nuclear test (<a href = \"http://www.bbc.com/news/business-22011178\"target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>, <a href = \"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/10/seoul-shuts-down-joint-north-south-korea-industrial-complex-kaesong\"target=\"_blank\">The Guardian</a>). Moon Jae-In, South Korea's new President promised to seek rapprochement with North Korea, including by re-opening Kaesong (<a href = \"http://thediplomat.com/2017/05/does-moon-jae-ins-victory-herald-a-new-dawn-for-the-sunshine-policy/\"target=\"_blank\">The Diplomat</a>, <a href = \"http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20170712000587\"target=\"_blank\">The Korea Herald</a>).\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nThis question closed as \"Not before 1 August 2018\" with an end date of 1 August 2018.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n", "ends_at": "2018-07-31T06:59:13.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 544, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:37:42.073+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:33:19.578+00:00"}, "name": "When will it be announced that the Kaesong Industrial Complex is reopening?\r\n", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1690, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 492, "published_at": "2017-08-01T14:11:22.490Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-08-03T18:02:32.722Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-07-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-08-01T10:00:13.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-08-01T17:00:13.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.949Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/777 | This question will be resolved using the daily rate reported by Federal Reserve Economic Data (<a href = "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXUSNZ"target="_blank">FRED</a>) for the date of interest. Question will be suspended the day before the date of interest and resolved when the data is released, usually on Monday of the following week.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub> <hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-12T04:59:32.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:58:25.698Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1694, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Less than 0.675", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 41, "predictions_count": 125, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 777, "question_name": "What will be the U.S. Dollars to one New Zealand Dollar daily exchange rate on 11 December 2017?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-19T21:08:29.854Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:56:27.701Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-12T04:59:32.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:58:25.768Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1695, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 0.675 and 0.680, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 41, "predictions_count": 125, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 777, "question_name": "What will be the U.S. Dollars to one New Zealand Dollar daily exchange rate on 11 December 2017?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-19T21:08:42.591Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:56:29.147Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-12T04:59:32.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:58:25.824Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1696, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 0.680 but less than 0.685", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 41, "predictions_count": 125, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 777, "question_name": "What will be the U.S. Dollars to one New Zealand Dollar daily exchange rate on 11 December 2017?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-19T21:08:18.216Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:56:29.966Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-12T04:59:32.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:58:25.863Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1697, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 0.685 and 0.690, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 41, "predictions_count": 125, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 777, "question_name": "What will be the U.S. Dollars to one New Zealand Dollar daily exchange rate on 11 December 2017?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-19T21:08:05.992Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:56:30.281Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-12T04:59:32.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:58:25.912Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1698, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 0.690", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 41, "predictions_count": 125, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 777, "question_name": "What will be the U.S. Dollars to one New Zealand Dollar daily exchange rate on 11 December 2017?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-19T21:07:53.772Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:56:30.889Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 126, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "This question will be resolved using the daily rate reported by Federal Reserve Economic Data (<a href = \"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXUSNZ\"target=\"_blank\">FRED</a>) for the date of interest. Question will be suspended the day before the date of interest and resolved when the data is released, usually on Monday of the following week.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub> <hr>", "ends_at": "2017-12-11T04:59:08.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 777, "image": null, "membership_id": 36637, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:44:11.966+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:43:49.768+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the U.S. Dollars to one New Zealand Dollar daily exchange rate on 11 December 2017?\r\n", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 125, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 41, "published_at": "2017-11-29T16:11:05.280Z", "resolution_notes": ["https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXUSNZ\r\n0.6919"], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-19T21:08:42.765Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-12-10T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-11-29T09:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-11-29T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/543 | The arrest of Nasser Zefzafi has become a flashpoint of recent protests in Morocco's Rif (<a href = "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/05/morocco-arrests-rif-protest-leader-nasser-zefzafi-170529130103911.html"target="_blank">Aljazeera</a>, <a href = "https://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21724804-trouble-neglected-region-threatens-whole-country-moroccos-unrest"target="_blank">The Economist</a>, <a href = "https://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2017/Jun-17/409913-morocco-clashes-turn-more-violent-witness.ashx"target="_blank">Daily Star</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
Nasser Zefzafi was not released from prison. This question closed as "Not before January 2018" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-02-01T18:00:15.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-01T14:07:10.283Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1088, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Before 1 October 2017", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 97, "predictions_count": 413, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 543, "question_name": "When will Nasser Zefzafi be released from prison?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-02-09T14:38:36.350Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:23.038Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-02-01T18:00:15.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-01T14:07:10.344Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1089, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 1 October 2017 and 31 December 2017, inclusive ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 97, "predictions_count": 413, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 543, "question_name": "When will Nasser Zefzafi be released from prison?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-02-09T14:38:41.120Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:23.431Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-02-01T18:00:15.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-01T14:07:10.384Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1090, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Not before 1 January 2018", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 97, "predictions_count": 413, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 543, "question_name": "When will Nasser Zefzafi be released from prison?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-02-09T14:38:46.216Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:23.777Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 423, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-08-02T23:58:25.165Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 151, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "1%", "description": "The arrest of Nasser Zefzafi has become a flashpoint of recent protests in Morocco's Rif (<a href = \"http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/05/morocco-arrests-rif-protest-leader-nasser-zefzafi-170529130103911.html\"target=\"_blank\">Aljazeera</a>, <a href = \"https://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21724804-trouble-neglected-region-threatens-whole-country-moroccos-unrest\"target=\"_blank\">The Economist</a>, <a href = \"https://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2017/Jun-17/409913-morocco-clashes-turn-more-violent-witness.ashx\"target=\"_blank\">Daily Star</a>).\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n\r\nNasser Zefzafi was not released from prison. This question closed as \"Not before January 2018\" with an end date of 1 January 2018. \r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-01-01T07:59:53.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 543, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:35:39.052+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:33:15.634+00:00"}, "name": "When will Nasser Zefzafi be released from prison?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 413, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 97, "published_at": "2017-08-01T14:07:10.544Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-02-09T14:38:46.236Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-12-31T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-08-01T10:00:53.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-08-01T17:00:53.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.869Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1058 | General Motors and its subsidiary Cruise Automation have announced intentions to launch a ride-hailing service somewhere in the U.S. in 2019 (<a href="http://gmauthority.com/blog/2018/09/for-a-self-driving-car-ride-share-service-gm-is-keeping-its-options-open/" target="_blank">GM Authority</a>). GM plans to use a version of the Chevy Bolt built without a steering wheel for the service (<a href="https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/general-motors/2018/01/12/gm-driverless-car-fleet-cruise-av/109381232/" target="_blank">Detroit News</a>, <a href="https://www.driven.co.nz/news/news/cruise-control-gm-s-top-kiwi-exec-to-run-self-driving-car-unit/" target="_blank">Driven</a><a>, </a><a href="https://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-think/transportation/self-driving/new-rules-of-the-road-allow-steeringwheelfree-cars" target="_blank">IEEE Spectrum</a>). However, technical and regulatory hurdles remain (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gm-selfdriving-cruise-insight/gms-driverless-car-bet-faces-long-road-ahead-idUSKCN1MY0CK" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://www.sfchronicle.com/business/article/Car-industry-in-a-nutshell-GM-shrinks-while-13422522.php" target="_blank">San Francisco Chronicle</a>). A service which requires rider prescreening or registration before use will count. A service that operates along a fixed route will not count.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub><p></p><hr><p>The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2020. </p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-01-01T18:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2018-12-14T16:31:45.263Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2407, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Yes, using only vehicles with steering wheels", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 289, "predictions_count": 553, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1058, "question_name": "Before 1 January 2020, will General Motors launch a ride-hailing service open to the public in the U.S. which uses autonomous vehicles?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-01-03T14:16:10.274Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:04:19.987Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-01-01T18:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2018-12-14T16:31:45.333Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2408, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Yes, using only vehicles without steering wheels", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 289, "predictions_count": 553, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1058, "question_name": "Before 1 January 2020, will General Motors launch a ride-hailing service open to the public in the U.S. which uses autonomous vehicles?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-01-03T14:16:03.967Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:04:20.600Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-01-01T18:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2018-12-14T16:31:45.376Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2409, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Yes, using at least some vehicles without steering wheels", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 289, "predictions_count": 553, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1058, "question_name": "Before 1 January 2020, will General Motors launch a ride-hailing service open to the public in the U.S. which uses autonomous vehicles?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-01-03T14:15:56.395Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:04:21.065Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2020-01-01T18:00:32.000Z", "created_at": "2018-12-14T16:31:45.444Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2410, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "No", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 289, "predictions_count": 553, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1058, "question_name": "Before 1 January 2020, will General Motors launch a ride-hailing service open to the public in the U.S. which uses autonomous vehicles?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-01-03T14:15:49.600Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:04:21.808Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": [{"content": "<i>We received a clarification request for this question, specifically, \"Would the driver registration process for Waymo\u2019s current ride-hailing service (<a href = \"https://waymo.com/apply/\"target=\"_blank\">Waymo</a>) count as 'driver prescreening,' and would Waymo\u2019s service count as 'open to the public?'\" The answer to both questions is yes, a driver registration process like Waymo\u2019s current ride-hailing service (<a href = \"https://waymo.com/apply/\"target=\"_blank\">Waymo</a>) would count as both \"driver prescreening\" and \"open to the public.\"</i>\r\n", "created_at": "2019-01-22T16:50:10.924Z", "id": 29, "question_id": 1058, "updated_at": "2019-01-22T16:50:10.924Z"}, {"content": "We have received an inquiry as to what kinds of subsidiaries and joint ventures would count for this question. Only GM and any organizations in which GM owns at least a 50% stake will count for the resolution of this question.", "created_at": "2019-03-15T19:00:00.393Z", "id": 31, "question_id": 1058, "updated_at": "2019-03-15T19:00:00.393Z"}], "comments_count": 582, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-12-14T18:11:00.745Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 382, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "General Motors and its subsidiary Cruise Automation have announced intentions to launch a ride-hailing service somewhere in the U.S. in 2019 (<a href=\"http://gmauthority.com/blog/2018/09/for-a-self-driving-car-ride-share-service-gm-is-keeping-its-options-open/\" target=\"_blank\">GM Authority</a>). GM plans to use a version of the Chevy Bolt built without a steering wheel for the service (<a href=\"https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/general-motors/2018/01/12/gm-driverless-car-fleet-cruise-av/109381232/\" target=\"_blank\">Detroit News</a>, <a href=\"https://www.driven.co.nz/news/news/cruise-control-gm-s-top-kiwi-exec-to-run-self-driving-car-unit/\" target=\"_blank\">Driven</a><a>, </a><a href=\"https://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-think/transportation/self-driving/new-rules-of-the-road-allow-steeringwheelfree-cars\" target=\"_blank\">IEEE Spectrum</a>). However, technical and regulatory hurdles remain (<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gm-selfdriving-cruise-insight/gms-driverless-car-bet-faces-long-road-ahead-idUSKCN1MY0CK\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>, <a href=\"https://www.sfchronicle.com/business/article/Car-industry-in-a-nutshell-GM-shrinks-while-13422522.php\" target=\"_blank\">San Francisco Chronicle</a>). A service which requires rider prescreening or registration before use will count. A service that operates along a fixed route will not count.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub><p></p><hr><p>The question closed \"No\" with a closing date of 1 January 2020. </p><p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how we resolve questions</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\"> and </span><a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;\">how scores are calculated</a><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px;\">.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2020-01-01T07:59:50.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1058, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:57:23.795+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:56:16.580+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_completed_at": "2020-12-03T18:33:09.620+00:00", "recompute_probability_history_started_at": "2020-12-03T18:29:26.149+00:00"}, "name": "Before 1 January 2020, will General Motors launch a ride-hailing service open to the public in the U.S. which uses autonomous vehicles?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 553, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 289, "published_at": "2018-12-14T16:31:45.574Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2020-01-03T14:16:10.287Z", "scoring_end_time": "2019-12-31T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-12-14T10:00:27.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-12-14T18:00:27.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.976Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/989 | Incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson is running for re-election against current Governor and Republican nominee Rick Scott in the 2018 midterm elections (<a href = "https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/fl/florida_senate_scott_vs_nelson-6246.html"target="_blank">Real Clear Politics</a>).
<hr>
Rick Scott (R) was elected senator in Florida's mid-term election.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-11-17T18:00:42.000Z", "created_at": "2018-07-18T15:05:38.615Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2209, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Bill Nelson (D)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 138, "predictions_count": 352, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 989, "question_name": "Who will be elected senator from Florida in the 2018 midterm elections? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-11-19T17:07:53.556Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:52.697Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-11-17T18:00:42.000Z", "created_at": "2018-07-18T15:05:38.657Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2210, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Rick Scott (R)", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 138, "predictions_count": 352, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 989, "question_name": "Who will be elected senator from Florida in the 2018 midterm elections? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-11-19T17:07:50.208Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:52.992Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-11-17T18:00:42.000Z", "created_at": "2018-07-18T15:05:38.700Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2211, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 138, "predictions_count": 352, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 989, "question_name": "Who will be elected senator from Florida in the 2018 midterm elections? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-11-19T17:07:46.471Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:53.315Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 393, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "Incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson is running for re-election against current Governor and Republican nominee Rick Scott in the 2018 midterm elections (<a href = \"https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/fl/florida_senate_scott_vs_nelson-6246.html\"target=\"_blank\">Real Clear Politics</a>).\r\n<hr>\r\nRick Scott (R) was elected senator in Florida's mid-term election. \r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-11-06T07:59:19.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 989, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:53:44.380+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:53:02.451+00:00"}, "name": "Who will be elected senator from Florida in the 2018 midterm elections? ", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 352, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 138, "published_at": "2018-07-18T15:05:38.829Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-11-19T17:07:53.568Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-11-05T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-07-18T10:00:19.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-07-18T17:00:19.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.906Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1059 | The adoption of electric vehicles is subject to a "chicken and egg" problem where potential consumers want a more extensive charging network, but businesses want more electric cars on the roads to justify building those new charging stations (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-electricity-charging/plug-wars-the-battle-for-electric-car-supremacy-idUSKBN1FD0QM" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://insideevs.com/number-of-ccs-combo-dc-fast-chargers-in-europe-hits-5000/" target="_blank">Inside EVs</a>). Europe has gone from zero Combined Charging System (CCS) fast charger locations in 2014 to 5,712 as of 14 December 2018. This question will be suspended on 9 December 2019 and closed using the total installed charger locations listed on 10 December 2019 from the <a href="http://ccs-map.eu/stats/" target="_blank">"CCS Charge Map – Europe" website</a>. If during the question's open period the source adds additional countries to the European area list, they will count.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub><p></p><hr><p></p><p>The question closed "Between 8,000 and 8,999, inclusive" with a closing date of 10 December 2019.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-12-10T18:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2018-12-14T16:35:04.129Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2411, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Less than 7,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 172, "predictions_count": 468, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1059, "question_name": "On 10 December 2019, how many total locations with Combined Charging System (CCS) fast chargers will be installed in the European area?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-12-12T13:48:51.021Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:04:22.882Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-12-10T18:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2018-12-14T16:35:04.178Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2412, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 7,000 and 7,999, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 172, "predictions_count": 468, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1059, "question_name": "On 10 December 2019, how many total locations with Combined Charging System (CCS) fast chargers will be installed in the European area?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-12-12T13:48:54.436Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:04:23.368Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-12-10T18:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2018-12-14T16:35:04.221Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2413, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 8,000 and 8,999, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 172, "predictions_count": 468, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1059, "question_name": "On 10 December 2019, how many total locations with Combined Charging System (CCS) fast chargers will be installed in the European area?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-12-12T13:48:58.676Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:04:25.583Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-12-10T18:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2018-12-14T16:35:04.247Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2414, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 9,000 and 9,999, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 172, "predictions_count": 468, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1059, "question_name": "On 10 December 2019, how many total locations with Combined Charging System (CCS) fast chargers will be installed in the European area?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-12-12T13:48:47.783Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:04:27.034Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-12-10T18:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2018-12-14T16:35:04.275Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2415, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "10,000 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 172, "predictions_count": 468, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1059, "question_name": "On 10 December 2019, how many total locations with Combined Charging System (CCS) fast chargers will be installed in the European area?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-12-12T13:49:03.066Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:04:28.588Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 499, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2019-01-16T09:26:57.939Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 327, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "9%", "description": "The adoption of electric vehicles is subject to a \"chicken and egg\" problem where potential consumers want a more extensive charging network, but businesses want more electric cars on the roads to justify building those new charging stations (<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-electricity-charging/plug-wars-the-battle-for-electric-car-supremacy-idUSKBN1FD0QM\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>, <a href=\"https://insideevs.com/number-of-ccs-combo-dc-fast-chargers-in-europe-hits-5000/\" target=\"_blank\">Inside EVs</a>). Europe has gone from zero Combined Charging System (CCS) fast charger locations in 2014 to 5,712 as of 14 December 2018. This question will be suspended on 9 December 2019 and closed using the total installed charger locations listed on 10 December 2019 from the <a href=\"http://ccs-map.eu/stats/\" target=\"_blank\">\"CCS Charge Map \u2013 Europe\" website</a>. If during the question's open period the source adds additional countries to the European area list, they will count.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub><p></p><hr><p></p><p>The question closed \"Between 8,000 and 8,999, inclusive\" with a closing date of 10 December 2019.</p><p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;\">See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p>", "ends_at": "2019-12-10T07:59:38.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1059, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:57:54.631+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:56:20.950+00:00"}, "name": "On 10 December 2019, how many total locations with Combined Charging System (CCS) fast chargers will be installed in the European area?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 468, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 172, "published_at": "2018-12-14T16:35:04.417Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-12-12T13:49:03.078Z", "scoring_end_time": "2019-12-09T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-12-14T10:00:38.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-12-14T18:00:38.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.976Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/611 | Uhuru Kenyatta was declared the winner of Kenya's August presidential elections, however, Kenyatta's opponent Raila Odinga challenged the results and the Supreme Court declared them invalid (<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/09/05/kenyas-supreme-court-just-declared-the-aug-8-elections-invalid-heres-what-this-means/?utm_term=.78bd34835717" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>). A rerun election is planned for <a href="http://allafrica.com/stories/201709050105.html" target="_blank">October 2017</a>. <a href="https://www.kenyaembassy.com/pdfs/the%20constitution%20of%20kenya.pdf" target="_blank">Kenya's constitution</a> allows petitioners to challenge the results of an election at the Supreme Court seven days after the date of the declaration of the results of the presidential election.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
Uhuru Kenyatta won the election rerun and the result will be challenged in the Supreme Court. This question closed as “a) Yes and the result will be challenged in the Supreme Court,” with an end date of 6 November 2017. (<a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-06/kenyan-politician-files-petition-to-overturn-vote-rerun-result"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-kenya-election-court/petition-filed-at-kenyas-supreme-court-challenging-election-results-idUSKBN1D61MP"target="_blank">Reuters</a>)
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-06T18:00:25.000Z", "created_at": "2017-09-19T16:19:32.325Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1272, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Yes, and the result will be challenged in the Supreme Court", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 98, "predictions_count": 220, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 611, "question_name": "Will Uhuru Kenyatta win Kenya's presidential election rerun?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-07T15:42:30.144Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:04.855Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-06T18:00:25.000Z", "created_at": "2017-09-19T16:19:32.371Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1273, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Yes, and the result will NOT be challenged in the Supreme Court", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 98, "predictions_count": 220, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 611, "question_name": "Will Uhuru Kenyatta win Kenya's presidential election rerun?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-07T15:42:33.660Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:05.301Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-06T18:00:25.000Z", "created_at": "2017-09-19T16:19:32.567Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1274, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "No, and the result will be challenged in the Supreme Court", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 98, "predictions_count": 220, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 611, "question_name": "Will Uhuru Kenyatta win Kenya's presidential election rerun?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-07T15:42:35.407Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:05.730Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-06T18:00:25.000Z", "created_at": "2017-09-19T16:19:32.627Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1275, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "No, and the result will NOT be challenged in the Supreme Court.", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 98, "predictions_count": 220, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 611, "question_name": "Will Uhuru Kenyatta win Kenya's presidential election rerun?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-07T15:42:31.947Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:06.016Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 247, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-10-14T01:31:44.692Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 17, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "59%", "description": "Uhuru Kenyatta was declared the winner of Kenya's August presidential elections, however, Kenyatta's opponent Raila Odinga challenged the results and the Supreme Court declared them invalid (<a href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/09/05/kenyas-supreme-court-just-declared-the-aug-8-elections-invalid-heres-what-this-means/?utm_term=.78bd34835717\" target=\"_blank\">Washington Post</a>). A rerun election is planned for <a href=\"http://allafrica.com/stories/201709050105.html\" target=\"_blank\">October 2017</a>. <a href=\"https://www.kenyaembassy.com/pdfs/the%20constitution%20of%20kenya.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Kenya's constitution</a> allows petitioners to challenge the results of an election at the Supreme Court seven days after the date of the declaration of the results of the presidential election. \r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\nUhuru Kenyatta won the election rerun and the result will be challenged in the Supreme Court. This question closed as \u201ca) Yes and the result will be challenged in the Supreme Court,\u201d with an end date of 6 November 2017. (<a href = \"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-06/kenyan-politician-files-petition-to-overturn-vote-rerun-result\"target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>, <a href = \"http://www.reuters.com/article/us-kenya-election-court/petition-filed-at-kenyas-supreme-court-challenging-election-results-idUSKBN1D61MP\"target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>)\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>", "ends_at": "2017-10-31T06:59:27.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 611, "image": null, "membership_id": 27345, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:38:48.750+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:38:12.707+00:00"}, "name": "Will Uhuru Kenyatta win Kenya's presidential election rerun?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 220, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 98, "published_at": "2017-09-19T16:19:33.185Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-07T15:42:35.418Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-10-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-09-19T10:00:27.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-09-19T17:00:27.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.869Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/783 | This question will be resolved using the daily closing price of the market of interest reported by <a href = "https://finance.google.com/finance?q=INDEXNASDAQ:OMXH25"target="_blank">Google Finance</a>. Question will be suspended the day before the date of interest and resolved the day after the date of interest.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-15T16:30:41.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:59:57.840Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1724, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Less than 3,890", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 32, "predictions_count": 128, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 783, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing price of Finland's OMX Helsinki 25 Index (INDEXNASDAQ: OMXH25) on 15 December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-22T14:26:36.577Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:56:49.772Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-15T16:30:41.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:59:57.888Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1725, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 3,890 and 3,940, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 32, "predictions_count": 128, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 783, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing price of Finland's OMX Helsinki 25 Index (INDEXNASDAQ: OMXH25) on 15 December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-22T14:26:23.200Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:56:54.212Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-15T16:30:41.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:59:57.948Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1726, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 3,940 but less than 4,010", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 32, "predictions_count": 128, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 783, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing price of Finland's OMX Helsinki 25 Index (INDEXNASDAQ: OMXH25) on 15 December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-22T14:26:09.770Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:02.924Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-15T16:30:41.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:59:58.004Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1727, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 4,010 and 4,060, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 32, "predictions_count": 128, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 783, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing price of Finland's OMX Helsinki 25 Index (INDEXNASDAQ: OMXH25) on 15 December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-22T14:25:57.412Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:04.949Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-15T16:30:41.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:59:58.066Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1728, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 4,060", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 32, "predictions_count": 128, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 783, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing price of Finland's OMX Helsinki 25 Index (INDEXNASDAQ: OMXH25) on 15 December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-22T14:25:43.418Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:05.463Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 128, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-12-12T16:48:29.530Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 2, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "87%", "description": "This question will be resolved using the daily closing price of the market of interest reported by <a href = \"https://finance.google.com/finance?q=INDEXNASDAQ:OMXH25\"target=\"_blank\">Google Finance</a>. Question will be suspended the day before the date of interest and resolved the day after the date of interest.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>", "ends_at": "2017-12-15T04:59:37.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 783, "image": null, "membership_id": 36637, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:44:56.417+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:44:07.531+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the daily closing price of Finland's OMX Helsinki 25 Index (INDEXNASDAQ: OMXH25) on 15 December 2017?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 128, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 32, "published_at": "2017-11-29T15:53:22.081Z", "resolution_notes": ["https://finance.google.com/finance?q=INDEXNASDAQ:OMXH25\r\n\r\n3903.502"], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-22T14:26:36.704Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-12-14T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-11-29T09:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-11-29T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/401 |
The <a href="http://www.oscars.org/" target="_blank">89th Academy Awards®</a> take place on Sunday, February 26.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on the rest of the Oscar Challenge <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/14-the-oscars-2017"target = "_blank">here</a>.
This question was closed on "Viola Davis (Fences)" (<a href = "http://oscar.go.com/winners"target="_blank">The Oscars</a>) with an end date of 26 February 2017
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-02-27T18:00:06.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-27T17:16:30.130Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 771, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Viola Davis (Fences)", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 94, "predictions_count": 174, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 401, "question_name": "Who will win the 2017 Academy Award for Actress in a Supporting Role?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-02-28T14:46:54.012Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:28.638Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-02-27T18:00:06.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-27T17:16:30.145Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 772, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Naomie Harris (Moonlight)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 94, "predictions_count": 174, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 401, "question_name": "Who will win the 2017 Academy Award for Actress in a Supporting Role?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-02-28T14:47:10.666Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:29.141Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-02-27T18:00:06.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-27T17:16:30.163Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 773, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Nicole Kidman (Lion)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 94, "predictions_count": 174, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 401, "question_name": "Who will win the 2017 Academy Award for Actress in a Supporting Role?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-02-28T14:47:28.291Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:29.372Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-02-27T18:00:06.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-27T17:16:30.183Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 774, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 94, "predictions_count": 174, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 401, "question_name": "Who will win the 2017 Academy Award for Actress in a Supporting Role?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-02-28T14:47:45.796Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:29.752Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-02-27T18:00:06.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-27T17:16:30.199Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 775, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 94, "predictions_count": 174, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 401, "question_name": "Who will win the 2017 Academy Award for Actress in a Supporting Role?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-02-28T14:48:05.697Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:29.949Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 174, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-01-27T21:11:59.435Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 30, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "\r\nThe <a href=\"http://www.oscars.org/\" target=\"_blank\">89th Academy Awards\u00ae</a> take place on Sunday, February 26.\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on the rest of the Oscar Challenge <a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/14-the-oscars-2017\"target = \"_blank\">here</a>. \r\n\r\n\r\nThis question was closed on \"Viola Davis (Fences)\" (<a href = \"http://oscar.go.com/winners\"target=\"_blank\">The Oscars</a>) with an end date of 26 February 2017\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>", "ends_at": "2017-02-27T07:59:15.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 401, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:25:26.586+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:23:21.230+00:00"}, "name": "Who will win the 2017 Academy Award for Actress in a Supporting Role?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 174, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 94, "published_at": "2017-01-27T17:16:30.276Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-02-28T14:48:05.778Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-02-26T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-01-27T10:00:15.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-01-27T18:00:15.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.890Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/675 | <a href = "http://www.who.int/influenza/gisrs_laboratory/flunet/en/"target="_blank">FluNet</a> is the World Health Organization's global web-based tool for influenza virological surveillance. Relevant data can be accessed via FluNet functions, 'Download influenza laboratory surveillance data from any week <a href = "http://apps.who.int/flumart/Default?ReportNo=12"target="_blank">here</a>. Select by: 'Country, area or territory'; Filter by: the country of interest; set the time period to cover the epidemiological-week(s) of interest; and then click 'Display report.' This question will be resolved using the value or sum of values reported in ‘Total number of influenza positive viruses’ or ‘ALL_INF’ for all reporting weeks within the period of interest. Question will be suspended on the last day of the period of interest and resolved when data for the period of interest is released.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-04T13:41:59.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-30T16:44:38.435Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1420, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Less than 27", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 82, "predictions_count": 184, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 675, "question_name": "How many influenza positive viruses will FluNet record for Qatar between 13 November 2017 and 19 November 2017 (epidemiological week 46)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-04T14:17:14.326Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:31.801Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-04T13:41:59.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-30T16:44:38.477Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1421, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 27 and 120, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 82, "predictions_count": 184, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 675, "question_name": "How many influenza positive viruses will FluNet record for Qatar between 13 November 2017 and 19 November 2017 (epidemiological week 46)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-04T14:17:12.281Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:31.948Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-04T13:41:59.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-30T16:44:38.508Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1422, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 120 but less than 200", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 82, "predictions_count": 184, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 675, "question_name": "How many influenza positive viruses will FluNet record for Qatar between 13 November 2017 and 19 November 2017 (epidemiological week 46)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-04T14:17:10.336Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:32.098Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-04T13:41:59.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-30T16:44:38.542Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1423, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 200 and 293, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 82, "predictions_count": 184, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 675, "question_name": "How many influenza positive viruses will FluNet record for Qatar between 13 November 2017 and 19 November 2017 (epidemiological week 46)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-04T14:17:08.138Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:32.211Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-04T13:41:59.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-30T16:44:38.580Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1424, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 293", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 82, "predictions_count": 184, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 675, "question_name": "How many influenza positive viruses will FluNet record for Qatar between 13 November 2017 and 19 November 2017 (epidemiological week 46)?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-04T14:17:05.771Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:32.334Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 203, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<a href = \"http://www.who.int/influenza/gisrs_laboratory/flunet/en/\"target=\"_blank\">FluNet</a> is the World Health Organization's global web-based tool for influenza virological surveillance. Relevant data can be accessed via FluNet functions, 'Download influenza laboratory surveillance data from any week <a href = \"http://apps.who.int/flumart/Default?ReportNo=12\"target=\"_blank\">here</a>. Select by: 'Country, area or territory'; Filter by: the country of interest; set the time period to cover the epidemiological-week(s) of interest; and then click 'Display report.' This question will be resolved using the value or sum of values reported in \u2018Total number of influenza positive viruses\u2019 or \u2018ALL_INF\u2019 for all reporting weeks within the period of interest. Question will be suspended on the last day of the period of interest and resolved when data for the period of interest is released.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>", "ends_at": "2017-11-19T07:59:35.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 675, "image": null, "membership_id": 36637, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:40:57.693+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:40:21.012+00:00"}, "name": "How many influenza positive viruses will FluNet record for Qatar between 13 November 2017 and 19 November 2017 (epidemiological week 46)?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 184, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 82, "published_at": "2017-11-01T15:00:26.900Z", "resolution_notes": ["Exact value: 365\r\nhttp://apps.who.int/flumart/Default?ReportNo=12\r\n"], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-04T14:17:14.342Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-11-18T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-11-01T09:00:35.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-11-01T16:00:35.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/779 | This question will be resolved using the daily rate reported by Federal Reserve Economic Data (<a href = "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXTHUS"target="_blank">FRED</a>) for the date of interest. Question will be suspended the day before the date of interest and resolved when the data is released, usually on Monday of the following week.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-12T04:59:22.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:59:01.408Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1704, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Less than 32.79", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 43, "predictions_count": 99, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 779, "question_name": "What will be the Thai Baht to one U.S. Dollar daily exchange rate on 11 December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-19T21:05:31.674Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:56:34.720Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-12T04:59:22.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:59:01.471Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1705, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 32.79 and 32.85, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 43, "predictions_count": 99, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 779, "question_name": "What will be the Thai Baht to one U.S. Dollar daily exchange rate on 11 December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-19T21:05:29.115Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:56:35.913Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-12T04:59:22.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:59:01.582Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1706, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 32.85 but less than 32.91", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 43, "predictions_count": 99, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 779, "question_name": "What will be the Thai Baht to one U.S. Dollar daily exchange rate on 11 December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-19T21:05:26.666Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:56:37.404Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-12T04:59:22.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:59:01.664Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1707, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 32.91 and 32.97, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 43, "predictions_count": 99, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 779, "question_name": "What will be the Thai Baht to one U.S. Dollar daily exchange rate on 11 December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-19T21:05:23.817Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:56:38.265Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-12T04:59:22.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:59:01.730Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1708, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 32.97", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 43, "predictions_count": 99, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 779, "question_name": "What will be the Thai Baht to one U.S. Dollar daily exchange rate on 11 December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-19T21:05:20.828Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:56:38.827Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 99, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-11-29T19:27:25.167Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 11, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "This question will be resolved using the daily rate reported by Federal Reserve Economic Data (<a href = \"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXTHUS\"target=\"_blank\">FRED</a>) for the date of interest. Question will be suspended the day before the date of interest and resolved when the data is released, usually on Monday of the following week.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n", "ends_at": "2017-12-11T04:59:05.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 779, "image": null, "membership_id": 36637, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:44:34.580+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:43:55.289+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the Thai Baht to one U.S. Dollar daily exchange rate on 11 December 2017?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 99, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 43, "published_at": "2017-11-29T16:00:43.349Z", "resolution_notes": ["https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXTHUS\r\n32.62"], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-19T21:05:31.702Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-12-10T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-11-29T09:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-11-29T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/393 | The Atlanta Falcons will take on the New England Patriots in the NFL's Super Bowl LI on 5 February 2017 in Houston, Texas (<a href = "https://www.nfl.com/super-bowl"taret = "_blank">NFL</a>).
The New England Patriots won the Super Bowl (<a href = "https://www.nfl.com/super-bowl, http://www.rollingstone.com/sports/new-england-patriots-win-super-bowl-in-thrilling-overtime-w464916"target="_blank">NFL</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/376-will-a-u-s-state-enact-a-soda-tax-in-2017"target = "_blank">the US will enact a soda tax in 2017</a> or on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/379-before-1-january-2018-will-the-u-s-federal-aviation-administration-grant-a-waiver-allowing-amazon-to-test-its-unmanned-aerial-vehicles"target = "_blank">the FAA will grant Amazon a waiver to begin testing UAV delivery systems</a>.</sub> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-02-05T21:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-24T16:19:00.134Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 730, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Atlanta Falcons", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 181, "predictions_count": 356, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 393, "question_name": "Which team will win Super Bowl LI?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-02-06T14:39:36.614Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:09.774Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-02-05T21:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-24T16:19:00.146Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 731, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "New England Patriots", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 181, "predictions_count": 356, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 393, "question_name": "Which team will win Super Bowl LI?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-02-06T14:39:32.617Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:09.999Z"}], "answers_count": 2, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 357, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-02-06T03:10:47.891Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 0, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "100%", "description": "The Atlanta Falcons will take on the New England Patriots in the NFL's Super Bowl LI on 5 February 2017 in Houston, Texas (<a href = \"https://www.nfl.com/super-bowl\"taret = \"_blank\">NFL</a>).\r\n\r\nThe New England Patriots won the Super Bowl (<a href = \"https://www.nfl.com/super-bowl, http://www.rollingstone.com/sports/new-england-patriots-win-super-bowl-in-thrilling-overtime-w464916\"target=\"_blank\">NFL</a>). \r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether <a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/376-will-a-u-s-state-enact-a-soda-tax-in-2017\"target = \"_blank\">the US will enact a soda tax in 2017</a> or on whether <a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/379-before-1-january-2018-will-the-u-s-federal-aviation-administration-grant-a-waiver-allowing-amazon-to-test-its-unmanned-aerial-vehicles\"target = \"_blank\">the FAA will grant Amazon a waiver to begin testing UAV delivery systems</a>.</sub>", "ends_at": "2017-02-06T07:59:42.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 393, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:23:54.484+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:22:31.828+00:00"}, "name": "Which team will win Super Bowl LI?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 356, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 181, "published_at": "2017-01-24T16:19:00.191Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-02-06T14:39:36.621Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-02-05T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-01-24T10:00:42.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-01-24T18:00:42.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.863Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/562 | Chevrolet's new electric vehicle, the Chevrolet Bolt EV, is being rolled out country wide in the fall of 2017 (<a href = "http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1108353_when-can-i-buy-a-chevy-bolt-ev-electric-car-see-our-state-by-state-schedule"target="_blank">The Green Car Report</a>). Outcome will be determined by the 2018 total listed for Chevrolet Bolt EV on the InsideEV website (<a href = "http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/"target="_blank">InsideEV</a>) after the June 2018 data has been released.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
7,858 Chevrolet Bolt EV's were sold between January and June 2018. This question closed as "less than 10,000" with an end date of 1 July 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-01T17:00:13.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-18T15:16:30.953Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1160, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Less than 10,000 ", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 355, "predictions_count": 909, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 562, "question_name": "How many Chevrolet Bolt EV's will be sold between January and June 2018?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-05T15:41:50.102Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:11.359Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-01T17:00:13.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-18T15:16:30.975Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1161, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "10,001 - 15,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 355, "predictions_count": 909, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 562, "question_name": "How many Chevrolet Bolt EV's will be sold between January and June 2018?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-05T15:40:55.109Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:11.562Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-01T17:00:13.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-18T15:16:30.994Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1162, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "15,001 - 20,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 355, "predictions_count": 909, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 562, "question_name": "How many Chevrolet Bolt EV's will be sold between January and June 2018?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-05T15:42:20.560Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:11.693Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-01T17:00:13.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-18T15:16:31.013Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1163, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "20,001 - 25,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 355, "predictions_count": 909, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 562, "question_name": "How many Chevrolet Bolt EV's will be sold between January and June 2018?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-05T15:42:29.884Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:13.519Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-01T17:00:13.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-18T15:16:31.031Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1164, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 25,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 355, "predictions_count": 909, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 562, "question_name": "How many Chevrolet Bolt EV's will be sold between January and June 2018?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-05T15:42:09.300Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:16.193Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1002, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-04-04T16:45:38.614Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 87, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "72%", "description": "Chevrolet's new electric vehicle, the Chevrolet Bolt EV, is being rolled out country wide in the fall of 2017 (<a href = \"http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1108353_when-can-i-buy-a-chevy-bolt-ev-electric-car-see-our-state-by-state-schedule\"target=\"_blank\">The Green Car Report</a>). Outcome will be determined by the 2018 total listed for Chevrolet Bolt EV on the InsideEV website (<a href = \"http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/\"target=\"_blank\">InsideEV</a>) after the June 2018 data has been released. \r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n\r\n7,858 Chevrolet Bolt EV's were sold between January and June 2018. This question closed as \"less than 10,000\" with an end date of 1 July 2018.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-07-01T06:59:17.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 562, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:43:25.791+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:35:42.544+00:00"}, "name": "How many Chevrolet Bolt EV's will be sold between January and June 2018?\r\n", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 909, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 355, "published_at": "2017-08-18T15:16:31.149Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-05T15:42:29.901Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-06-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-08-18T10:00:17.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-08-18T17:00:17.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.912Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/987 | Incumbent Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp is running for re-election against Congressman and Republican nominee Kevin Cramer in the 2018 midterm elections (<a href = "https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nd/north_dakota_senate_cramer_vs_heitkamp-6485.html"target="_blank">Real Clear Politics</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-11-06T18:00:22.000Z", "created_at": "2018-07-18T14:45:47.241Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2203, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Heidi Heitkamp (D)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 121, "predictions_count": 337, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 987, "question_name": "Who will be elected senator from North Dakota in the 2018 midterm elections? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-11-07T17:19:03.552Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:50.977Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-11-06T18:00:22.000Z", "created_at": "2018-07-18T14:45:47.278Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2204, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Kevin Cramer (R)", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 121, "predictions_count": 337, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 987, "question_name": "Who will be elected senator from North Dakota in the 2018 midterm elections? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-11-07T17:18:34.965Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:51.228Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-11-06T18:00:22.000Z", "created_at": "2018-07-18T14:45:47.320Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2205, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 121, "predictions_count": 337, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 987, "question_name": "Who will be elected senator from North Dakota in the 2018 midterm elections? ", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-11-07T17:18:05.821Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:00:51.494Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 347, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-10-04T18:27:32.981Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 32, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "71%", "description": "Incumbent Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp is running for re-election against Congressman and Republican nominee Kevin Cramer in the 2018 midterm elections (<a href = \"https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nd/north_dakota_senate_cramer_vs_heitkamp-6485.html\"target=\"_blank\">Real Clear Politics</a>).\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-11-06T07:59:49.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 987, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:53:40.961+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:53:01.859+00:00"}, "name": "Who will be elected senator from North Dakota in the 2018 midterm elections? ", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 337, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 121, "published_at": "2018-07-18T14:45:47.442Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-11-07T17:19:03.591Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-11-05T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-07-18T10:00:49.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-07-18T17:00:49.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.906Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/950 | The question will be resolved based on the closing price reported at <a href = "https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=BTC%3D"target="_blank">CNBC</a> using the 1Y graph. The closing price can be found by hovering your cursor over the relevant date.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
The closing price of Bitcoin on 8 June 2018, according to CNBC was $7,600.28. This question closed as "a) less than $8,000" with an end date of 8 June 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-08T17:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-09T16:32:27.898Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2118, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Less than $8,000", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 117, "predictions_count": 448, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 950, "question_name": "What will be the closing price of Bitcoin on 8 June 2018, according to CNBC?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-06-11T16:50:28.226Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:53.472Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-08T17:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-09T16:32:27.942Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2119, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between $8,000 and $9,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 117, "predictions_count": 448, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 950, "question_name": "What will be the closing price of Bitcoin on 8 June 2018, according to CNBC?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-06-11T16:50:22.475Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:53.872Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-08T17:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-09T16:32:27.995Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2120, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than $9,000 but less than $10,000 ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 117, "predictions_count": 448, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 950, "question_name": "What will be the closing price of Bitcoin on 8 June 2018, according to CNBC?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-06-11T16:50:16.744Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:54.183Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-08T17:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-09T16:32:28.081Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2121, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between $10,000 and $11,000, inclusive ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 117, "predictions_count": 448, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 950, "question_name": "What will be the closing price of Bitcoin on 8 June 2018, according to CNBC?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-06-11T16:50:11.454Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:54.397Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-08T17:00:49.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-09T16:32:28.161Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2122, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "$11,000 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 117, "predictions_count": 448, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 950, "question_name": "What will be the closing price of Bitcoin on 8 June 2018, according to CNBC?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-06-11T16:50:06.206Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:54.743Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 470, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-05-22T23:11:48.870Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 16, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "45%", "description": "The question will be resolved based on the closing price reported at <a href = \"https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=BTC%3D\"target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a> using the 1Y graph. The closing price can be found by hovering your cursor over the relevant date. \r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nThe closing price of Bitcoin on 8 June 2018, according to CNBC was $7,600.28. This question closed as \"a) less than $8,000\" with an end date of 8 June 2018.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n", "ends_at": "2018-06-08T06:59:33.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 950, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:52:44.278+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:51:36.722+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the closing price of Bitcoin on 8 June 2018, according to CNBC?\r\n", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 448, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 117, "published_at": "2018-05-09T16:32:28.395Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-06-11T16:50:28.241Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-06-07T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-05-09T10:00:33.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-05-09T17:00:33.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2021-09-16T02:52:44.289Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/809 | Four teams will compete for the <a href = "http://www.collegefootballplayoff.com/index.aspx"target="_blank">College Football Playoff National Championship</a>. The two semifinal games will be played on 1 January 2018 and the championship game will be played on 8 January 2018.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
Alabama won the 2017-18 College Football Playoff National Championship. This question closed as "Alabama" with an end date of 8 January 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-08T18:00:42.000Z", "created_at": "2017-12-08T16:46:32.088Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1806, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Clemson", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 94, "predictions_count": 162, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 809, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2017-18 College Football Playoff National Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-28T02:04:06.715Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:36.428Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-08T18:00:42.000Z", "created_at": "2017-12-08T16:46:32.146Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1807, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Oklahoma", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 94, "predictions_count": 162, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 809, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2017-18 College Football Playoff National Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-28T02:04:04.428Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:36.530Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-08T18:00:42.000Z", "created_at": "2017-12-08T16:46:32.184Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1808, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Georgia", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 94, "predictions_count": 162, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 809, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2017-18 College Football Playoff National Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-28T02:04:02.167Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:36.644Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-08T18:00:42.000Z", "created_at": "2017-12-08T16:46:32.240Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1809, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Alabama", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 94, "predictions_count": 162, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 809, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2017-18 College Football Playoff National Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-28T02:03:59.779Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:36.805Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 162, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-12-24T00:11:00.793Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 15, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "50%", "description": "Four teams will compete for the <a href = \"http://www.collegefootballplayoff.com/index.aspx\"target=\"_blank\">College Football Playoff National Championship</a>. The two semifinal games will be played on 1 January 2018 and the championship game will be played on 8 January 2018. \r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nAlabama won the 2017-18 College Football Playoff National Championship. This question closed as \"Alabama\" with an end date of 8 January 2018.\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-01-08T07:59:51.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 809, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:45:30.975+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:45:01.069+00:00"}, "name": "Which team will win the 2017-18 College Football Playoff National Championship?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 162, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 94, "published_at": "2017-12-08T16:46:32.334Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-28T02:04:06.732Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-01-07T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-12-08T10:00:51.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-12-08T18:00:51.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.863Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/120 | For more information on the candidates, the primary process, and the primary schedule see: <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/presidential-candidates/" target=“_blank”>Candidates</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/05/12/everything-you-need-to-know-about-how-the-presidential-primary-works" target=“_blank”>How the Presidential Primary Works</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/primaries/schedule/" target=“_blank”>Schedule</a>.
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"updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:46:11.899Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-02-02T03:00:44.000Z", "created_at": "2016-01-21T05:16:46.051Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 215, "membership_id": 2, "name": "Martin O\u2019Malley", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 1718, "predictions_count": 2201, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 120, "question_name": "Which Democratic presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on 1 February?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-02-03T17:06:55.529Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:46:12.488Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-02-02T03:00:44.000Z", "created_at": "2016-01-21T05:16:58.266Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 216, "membership_id": 2, "name": "Bernie Sanders", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 1718, "predictions_count": 2201, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 120, "question_name": "Which Democratic presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on 1 February?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-02-03T17:06:55.529Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:46:12.728Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 2290, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2016-01-21T17:00:04.536Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 10, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "For more information on the candidates, the primary process, and the primary schedule see: <a href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/presidential-candidates/\" target=\u201c_blank\u201d>Candidates</a>, <a href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/05/12/everything-you-need-to-know-about-how-the-presidential-primary-works\" target=\u201c_blank\u201d>How the Presidential Primary Works</a>, <a href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/primaries/schedule/\" target=\u201c_blank\u201d>Schedule</a>.\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions\r\n<a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/119-which-republican-presidential-candidate-will-win-the-iowa-caucuses-on-1-february\" target = \"_blank\">Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on 1 February?</a>\r\n<a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/39-will-hillary-clinton-win-new-hampshire-s-democratic-primary/\" target = \"_blank\">Will Hillary Clinton win New Hampshire's Democratic primary?</a>\r\n<a href = 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"2016-01-31T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-01-21T07:48:26.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-01-21T15:48:26.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.840Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/289 | This question was closed with the correct answer 'Catherine Cortez Masto (D)' with an end date of 8 November 2016. Catherine Cortez Masto was elected senator in Nevada on November 8. (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/senate" target="_blank">NY Times</a>)
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>
<hr>
Former Nevada Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto (D) is challenging Representative Joe Heck (R) for the seat vacated by retiring Minority Leader Harry Reid in a close race (<a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heck_vs_cortez_masto-5982.html" target="_blank">Real Clear Politics</a>, <a href="http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-nevada-senate-heck-vs-cortez-masto" target="_blank">Huffington Post</a>). As Democrats seek to retake control of the Senate, they risk losing Reid’s seat (<a href="http://www.bigstory.ap.org/article/5dce5719c7cf427ea7d56bae389ca155/democrats-fear-their-senate-takeover-chances-dimming" target="_blank">Associated Press</a>, <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/09/13/big-ad-buy-targets-democrat-catherine-cortez-masto-in-nevada-senate-race/" target="_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>).
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| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-11-08T18:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2016-09-30T16:06:24.999Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 566, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Catherine Cortez Masto (D)", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 198, "predictions_count": 503, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 289, "question_name": "Who will be elected senator from Nevada this November?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-11-18T13:49:26.511Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:14.892Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-11-08T18:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2016-09-30T16:06:25.030Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 567, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Joe Heck (R)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 198, "predictions_count": 503, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 289, "question_name": "Who will be elected senator from Nevada this November?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-11-18T13:49:32.110Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:15.143Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-11-08T18:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2016-09-30T16:06:25.048Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 568, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "None of the above", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 198, "predictions_count": 503, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 289, "question_name": "Who will be elected senator from Nevada this November?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-11-18T13:49:37.832Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:15.320Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 509, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2016-10-16T15:52:54.495Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 23, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "41%", "description": "This question was closed with the correct answer 'Catherine Cortez Masto (D)' with an end date of 8 November 2016. Catherine Cortez Masto was elected senator in Nevada on November 8. (<a href=\"http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/senate\" target=\"_blank\">NY Times</a>)\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a> \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nFormer Nevada Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto (D) is challenging Representative Joe Heck (R) for the seat vacated by retiring Minority Leader Harry Reid in a close race (<a href=\"http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heck_vs_cortez_masto-5982.html\" target=\"_blank\">Real Clear Politics</a>, <a href=\"http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-nevada-senate-heck-vs-cortez-masto\" target=\"_blank\">Huffington Post</a>). As Democrats seek to retake control of the Senate, they risk losing Reid\u2019s seat (<a href=\"http://www.bigstory.ap.org/article/5dce5719c7cf427ea7d56bae389ca155/democrats-fear-their-senate-takeover-chances-dimming\" target=\"_blank\">Associated Press</a>, <a href=\"http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/09/13/big-ad-buy-targets-democrat-catherine-cortez-masto-in-nevada-senate-race/\" target=\"_blank\">Wall Street Journal</a>).\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/282\" target=\"_blank\">Will Senator Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) be re-elected this November?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/259\" target=\"_blank\">Will Senator Pat Toomey (R-PA) be re-elected this November?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/178\" target=\"_blank\">Will Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) be re-elected this November?</a>\r\n", "ends_at": "2016-11-09T07:59:26.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 289, "image": null, "membership_id": 27345, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:13:40.705+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:12:57.522+00:00"}, "name": "Who will be elected senator from Nevada this November?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 503, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 198, "published_at": "2016-09-30T16:06:25.161Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-11-18T13:49:37.844Z", "scoring_end_time": "2016-11-08T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-09-30T10:00:26.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-09-30T17:00:26.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.840Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/163 | The New York primary is scheduled for 19 April, the Nebraska primary is scheduled for 10 May, the California primary is scheduled for 7 June, and the Republican National Convention is scheduled to begin in 18 July. For more information on the candidates, the primary process, and the primary schedule see: <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/presidential-candidates/" target="_blank">Candidates</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/05/12/everything-you-need-to-know-about-how-the-presidential-primary-works" target="_blank">How the Presidential Primary Works</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/primaries/schedule/" target="_blank">Schedule</a>.
This question will be scored using the ordered categorial scoring rule. For more information, see the <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#freq11">FAQ</a>.
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<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/81-who-will-win-the-republican-party-nomination-for-the-us-presidential-election" target = "_blank">Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election?</a>
<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/123-will-the-republican-candidate-for-president-win-the-party-s-nomination-on-the-first-ballot-at-the-party-s-convention-in-july" target = "_blank">Will the Republican candidate for president win the party's nomination on the first ballot, at the party's convention in July?</a>
<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/147-if-donald-trump-wins-the-republican-nomination-which-party-will-win-the-u-s-presidential-election" target = "_blank">(Conditional) If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, which party will win the U.S. presidential election?</a> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-05-04T21:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2016-03-18T16:34:13.974Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 311, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Before the New York primary", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 519, "predictions_count": 1455, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 163, "question_name": "When will John Kasich drop out of the race for the Republican presidential nomination?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-05-06T10:47:57.630Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:47:11.461Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-05-04T21:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2016-03-18T16:34:34.742Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 312, "membership_id": 6, "name": "After the New York primary but before the Nebraska primary", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 519, "predictions_count": 1455, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 163, "question_name": "When will John Kasich drop out of the race for the Republican presidential nomination?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-05-06T10:48:18.139Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:47:11.865Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-05-04T21:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2016-03-18T16:35:04.794Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 313, "membership_id": 6, "name": "After the Nebraska primary but before the California primary", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 519, "predictions_count": 1455, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 163, "question_name": "When will John Kasich drop out of the race for the Republican presidential nomination?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-05-06T10:48:43.772Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:47:12.535Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-05-04T21:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2016-03-18T16:35:49.809Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 314, "membership_id": 6, "name": "After the California primary but before the Republican National Convention begins", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 519, "predictions_count": 1455, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 163, "question_name": "When will John Kasich drop out of the race for the Republican presidential nomination?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-05-06T10:49:04.667Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:47:12.769Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-05-04T21:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2016-03-18T16:36:16.307Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 315, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Not before the Republican National Convention", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 519, "predictions_count": 1455, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 163, "question_name": "When will John Kasich drop out of the race for the Republican presidential nomination?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-05-06T10:49:27.993Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:47:13.143Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1522, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2016-05-04T17:51:00.106Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 0, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "100%", "description": "The New York primary is scheduled for 19 April, the Nebraska primary is scheduled for 10 May, the California primary is scheduled for 7 June, and the Republican National Convention is scheduled to begin in 18 July. For more information on the candidates, the primary process, and the primary schedule see: <a href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/presidential-candidates/\" target=\"_blank\">Candidates</a>, <a href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/05/12/everything-you-need-to-know-about-how-the-presidential-primary-works\" target=\"_blank\">How the Presidential Primary Works</a>, <a href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/primaries/schedule/\" target=\"_blank\">Schedule</a>.\r\n\r\nThis question will be scored using the ordered categorial scoring rule. For more information, see the <a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#freq11\">FAQ</a>.\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions\r\n<a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/81-who-will-win-the-republican-party-nomination-for-the-us-presidential-election\" target = \"_blank\">Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election?</a>\r\n<a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/123-will-the-republican-candidate-for-president-win-the-party-s-nomination-on-the-first-ballot-at-the-party-s-convention-in-july\" target = \"_blank\">Will the Republican candidate for president win the party's nomination on the first ballot, at the party's convention in July?</a>\r\n<a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/147-if-donald-trump-wins-the-republican-nomination-which-party-will-win-the-u-s-presidential-election\" target = \"_blank\">(Conditional) If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, which party will win the U.S. presidential election?</a>", "ends_at": "2016-05-05T15:25:14.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 163, "image": null, "membership_id": 6, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:04:22.970+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:00:11.322+00:00"}, "name": "When will John Kasich drop out of the race for the Republican presidential nomination?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1455, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 519, "published_at": "2016-03-18T16:37:49.581Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-05-06T10:49:28.005Z", "scoring_end_time": "2016-05-04T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-03-18T10:00:49.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-03-18T17:00:49.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.840Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/141 | Note: this is a probability question, asking for the top finisher, not a delegate share question!
Pledged delegates are those delegates whose votes are determined by the outcome of the primaries (<a href = "http://www.bustle.com/articles/139315-how-do-delegates-work-these-candidate-representatives-play-a-huge-role-in-who-gets-nominated" target = "_blank">Bustle</a>). More than 10 states will hold Republican primaries or caucuses on Super Tuesday, 1 March 2016 (<a href = "http://people.howstuffworks.com/super-tuesday.htm" target = "_blank">HowStuffWorks</a>, <a href = "http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/mark-your-calendar-must-know-political-dates-2016-n482101" target = "_blank">NBC News</a>).
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<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/81-who-will-win-the-republican-party-nomination-for-the-us-presidential-election" target = "_blank">Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election?</a>
<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/140-after-the-super-tuesday-primaries-which-democratic-candidate-will-have-won-the-most-pledged-delegates" target = "_blank">After the Super Tuesday primaries, which Democratic candidate will have won the most pledged delegates?</a> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-03-02T01:00:46.000Z", "created_at": "2016-02-11T17:41:04.553Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 263, "membership_id": 6, "name": " Jeb Bush", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 1827, "predictions_count": 2683, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 141, "question_name": "After the Super Tuesday primaries, which Republican candidate will have won the most pledged delegates?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-03-02T13:39:38.706Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:46:42.248Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-03-02T01:00:46.000Z", "created_at": "2016-02-11T17:41:52.019Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 264, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Ben Carson", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 1827, "predictions_count": 2683, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 141, "question_name": "After the Super Tuesday primaries, which Republican candidate will have won the most pledged delegates?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-03-02T13:39:38.706Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:46:43.030Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-03-02T01:00:46.000Z", "created_at": "2016-02-11T17:42:14.616Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 265, "membership_id": 6, "name": " Ted Cruz", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 1827, "predictions_count": 2683, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 141, "question_name": "After the Super Tuesday primaries, which Republican candidate will have won the most pledged delegates?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-03-02T13:39:38.706Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:46:43.851Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-03-02T01:00:46.000Z", "created_at": "2016-02-11T17:42:41.951Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 266, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Jim Gilmore", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 1827, "predictions_count": 2683, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 141, "question_name": "After the Super Tuesday primaries, which Republican candidate will have won the most pledged delegates?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-03-02T13:39:38.706Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:46:44.377Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-03-02T01:00:46.000Z", "created_at": "2016-02-11T17:43:22.908Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 267, "membership_id": 6, "name": " John Kasich", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 1827, "predictions_count": 2683, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 141, "question_name": "After the Super Tuesday primaries, which Republican candidate will have won the most pledged delegates?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-03-02T13:39:38.706Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:46:44.833Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-03-02T01:00:46.000Z", "created_at": "2016-02-11T17:43:50.546Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 268, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Marco Rubio", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 1827, "predictions_count": 2683, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 141, "question_name": "After the Super Tuesday primaries, which Republican candidate will have won the most pledged delegates?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-03-02T13:39:38.706Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:46:45.269Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-03-02T01:00:46.000Z", "created_at": "2016-02-11T17:44:15.550Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 269, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Donald Trump", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 1827, "predictions_count": 2683, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 141, "question_name": "After the Super Tuesday primaries, which Republican candidate will have won the most pledged delegates?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-03-02T13:39:38.706Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:46:46.012Z"}], "answers_count": 7, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 2789, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2016-02-11T18:12:01.893Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 18, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "Note: this is a probability question, asking for the top finisher, not a delegate share question!\r\n\r\nPledged delegates are those delegates whose votes are determined by the outcome of the primaries (<a href = \"http://www.bustle.com/articles/139315-how-do-delegates-work-these-candidate-representatives-play-a-huge-role-in-who-gets-nominated\" target = \"_blank\">Bustle</a>). More than 10 states will hold Republican primaries or caucuses on Super Tuesday, 1 March 2016 (<a href = \"http://people.howstuffworks.com/super-tuesday.htm\" target = \"_blank\">HowStuffWorks</a>, <a href = \"http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/mark-your-calendar-must-know-political-dates-2016-n482101\" target = \"_blank\">NBC News</a>).\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions\r\n<a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/81-who-will-win-the-republican-party-nomination-for-the-us-presidential-election\" target = \"_blank\">Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election?</a>\r\n<a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/140-after-the-super-tuesday-primaries-which-democratic-candidate-will-have-won-the-most-pledged-delegates\" target = \"_blank\">After the Super Tuesday primaries, which Democratic candidate will have won the most pledged delegates?</a>", "ends_at": "2016-03-01T07:59:22.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 141, "image": null, "membership_id": 6, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:22:31.219+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T01:56:15.693+00:00"}, "name": "After the Super Tuesday primaries, which Republican candidate will have won the most pledged delegates?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 2683, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 1827, "published_at": "2016-02-11T17:45:35.821Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-03-02T13:39:38.713Z", "scoring_end_time": "2016-02-29T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-02-11T10:00:22.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-02-11T18:00:22.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.840Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/253 | This question closed on 18 September 2016. "Game of Thrones" won the Emmy for "Outstanding Drama Series" (<a href="http://www.ew.com/article/2016/09/18/game-thrones-emmys" target="_blank">Entertainment Weekly</a>, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-awards-emmys-idUSKCN11O0H9" target="_blank">Reuters</a>).
<a href="http://www.emmys.com" target="_blank">The Emmys</a> will be awarded on 18 September 2016. For more information on the series nominated for outstanding drama see <a href="http://www.emmys.com/awards/nominees-winners/2016/outstanding-drama-series" target="_blank">The 68th Emmy Awards Nominees</a>.
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3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:40.523Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-09-19T00:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2016-08-05T13:36:47.960Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 480, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Homeland", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 122, "predictions_count": 218, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 253, "question_name": "Which show will win the Emmy for \"Outstanding Drama Series\"?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-09-19T13:54:31.319Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:41.011Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-09-19T00:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2016-08-05T13:36:47.975Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 481, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "House of Cards", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 122, "predictions_count": 218, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 253, "question_name": "Which show will win the Emmy for \"Outstanding Drama Series\"?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-09-19T13:54:33.671Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 5, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:41.628Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-09-19T00:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2016-08-05T13:36:47.990Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 482, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Mr. Robot", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 122, "predictions_count": 218, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 253, "question_name": "Which show will win the Emmy for \"Outstanding Drama Series\"?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-09-19T13:54:35.830Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:42.501Z"}], "answers_count": 7, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 242, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2016-08-05T20:47:06.322Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 43, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "This question closed on 18 September 2016. \"Game of Thrones\" won the Emmy for \"Outstanding Drama Series\" (<a href=\"http://www.ew.com/article/2016/09/18/game-thrones-emmys\" target=\"_blank\">Entertainment Weekly</a>, <a href=\"http://www.reuters.com/article/us-awards-emmys-idUSKCN11O0H9\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://www.emmys.com\" target=\"_blank\">The Emmys</a> will be awarded on 18 September 2016. For more information on the series nominated for outstanding drama see <a href=\"http://www.emmys.com/awards/nominees-winners/2016/outstanding-drama-series\" target=\"_blank\">The 68th Emmy Awards Nominees</a>.\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/243\" target=\"_blank\">Who will win the Women's World Surf League Championship Tour?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/25\" target=\"_blank\">Which main character will be the first to die in Season 6 of the Walking Dead?</a>", "ends_at": "2016-09-18T06:59:57.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 253, "image": null, "membership_id": 27345, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:11:20.774+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:10:06.828+00:00"}, "name": "Which show will win the Emmy for \"Outstanding Drama Series\"?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 218, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 122, "published_at": "2016-08-05T13:36:48.054Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-09-19T13:54:35.839Z", "scoring_end_time": "2016-09-17T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-08-05T10:00:57.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-08-05T17:00:57.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.822Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/305 | Observers of North Korean politics have speculated about various ways in which Kim's tenure might end abruptly, including military coup (<a href="http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/02/11/north-korea-s-generals-could-turn-against-kim-jong-un.html" target="_blank">The Daily Beast</a>), assassination (<a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/03/25/north-korean-leader-faces-four-assassination-scenarios-study-say/" target="_blank">The Telegraph</a>), foreign intervention (<a href="http://theweek.com/articles/648718/south-korea-plan-decapitate-kim-jong-un" target="_blank">The Week</a>), or state collapse (<a href="https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/north-korea-collapse-scenarios/" target="_blank">Brookings Opinion</a>). In the event that Kim reportedly disappears or flees the capital, Good Judgment will observe a three-week waiting period, at the end of which the question will close retroactively to the date of his disappearance or exodus. If Kim returns in the interim, the question will remain open.
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Kim Jong-un remains the supreme leader of North Korea. This question closed as "Not before 1 October 2017," with and end date of 1 October 2017.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-01T17:00:17.000Z", "created_at": "2016-10-18T15:35:33.416Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 596, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Before 1 January 2017", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 555, "predictions_count": 1989, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 305, "question_name": "When will Kim Jong-un cease to be supreme leader of North Korea?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-04T19:23:35.357Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:23.532Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-01T17:00:17.000Z", "created_at": "2016-10-18T15:35:33.450Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 597, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Between 1 January 2017 and 31 March 2017", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 555, "predictions_count": 1989, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 305, "question_name": "When will Kim Jong-un cease to be supreme leader of North Korea?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-04T19:13:30.174Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:24.357Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-01T17:00:17.000Z", "created_at": "2016-10-18T15:35:33.480Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 598, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Between 1 April 2017 and 30 June 2017, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 555, "predictions_count": 1989, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 305, "question_name": "When will Kim Jong-un cease to be supreme leader of North Korea?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-04T19:20:09.075Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:25.201Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-01T17:00:17.000Z", "created_at": "2016-10-18T15:35:33.521Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 599, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Between 1 July 2017 and 30 September 2017, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 555, "predictions_count": 1989, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 305, "question_name": "When will Kim Jong-un cease to be supreme leader of North Korea?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-04T19:10:18.446Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:25.697Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-01T17:00:17.000Z", "created_at": "2016-10-18T15:35:33.561Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 600, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Not before 1 October 2017", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 555, "predictions_count": 1989, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 305, "question_name": "When will Kim Jong-un cease to be supreme leader of North Korea?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-04T19:16:43.197Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:26.114Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 2080, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2016-10-18T17:41:29.267Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 347, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "Observers of North Korean politics have speculated about various ways in which Kim's tenure might end abruptly, including military coup (<a href=\"http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/02/11/north-korea-s-generals-could-turn-against-kim-jong-un.html\" target=\"_blank\">The Daily Beast</a>), assassination (<a href=\"http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/03/25/north-korean-leader-faces-four-assassination-scenarios-study-say/\" target=\"_blank\">The Telegraph</a>), foreign intervention (<a href=\"http://theweek.com/articles/648718/south-korea-plan-decapitate-kim-jong-un\" target=\"_blank\">The Week</a>), or state collapse (<a href=\"https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/north-korea-collapse-scenarios/\" target=\"_blank\">Brookings Opinion</a>). In the event that Kim reportedly disappears or flees the capital, Good Judgment will observe a three-week waiting period, at the end of which the question will close retroactively to the date of his disappearance or exodus. If Kim returns in the interim, the question will remain open.\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/250\" target=\"_blank\">Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan cease to be President of Turkey before 1 August 2017?</a>\r\n<hr>\r\nKim Jong-un remains the supreme leader of North Korea. This question closed as \"Not before 1 October 2017,\" with and end date of 1 October 2017.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>", "ends_at": "2017-10-01T06:59:20.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 305, "image": null, "membership_id": 27345, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:18:05.625+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:14:06.354+00:00"}, "name": "When will Kim Jong-un cease to be supreme leader of North Korea?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1989, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 555, "published_at": "2016-10-18T15:35:33.624Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-10-04T19:23:35.608Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-09-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-10-18T10:00:20.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-10-18T17:00:20.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.869Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/768 | This question will be resolved using the <a href = "http://www.lbma.org.uk/pricing-and-statistics"target="_blank">last daily London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) Gold Price USD (PM)</a> for the date of interest. The relevant data is available by selecting 'Table' and referring to the 'PM' column under 'USD.' Question will be suspended on the day before the date of interest and resolved the day after the date of interest.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-14T04:59:47.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:55:25.633Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1671, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Less than $1,270", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 72, "predictions_count": 186, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 768, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing price of gold on 13 December 2017 in USD?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-15T18:41:56.831Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:55:56.056Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-14T04:59:47.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:55:25.695Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1672, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between $1,270 and $1,282, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 72, "predictions_count": 186, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 768, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing price of gold on 13 December 2017 in USD?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-15T18:41:55.006Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:55:57.520Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-14T04:59:47.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:55:25.746Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1673, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than $1,282 but less than $1,294", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 72, "predictions_count": 186, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 768, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing price of gold on 13 December 2017 in USD?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-15T18:41:53.290Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:55:58.311Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-14T04:59:47.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:55:25.863Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1674, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between $1,294 and $1,306, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 72, "predictions_count": 186, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 768, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing price of gold on 13 December 2017 in USD?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-15T18:41:51.395Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:55:58.969Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-14T04:59:47.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:55:26.054Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1675, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than $1,306", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 72, "predictions_count": 186, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 768, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing price of gold on 13 December 2017 in USD?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-15T18:41:49.281Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:56:01.297Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 186, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-12-06T06:46:18.489Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 7, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "46%", "description": "This question will be resolved using the <a href = \"http://www.lbma.org.uk/pricing-and-statistics\"target=\"_blank\">last daily London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) Gold Price USD (PM)</a> for the date of interest. The relevant data is available by selecting 'Table' and referring to the 'PM' column under 'USD.' Question will be suspended on the day before the date of interest and resolved the day after the date of interest.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n", "ends_at": "2017-12-13T04:59:49.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 768, "image": null, "membership_id": 36637, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:44:03.689+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:43:29.401+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the daily closing price of gold on 13 December 2017 in USD?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 186, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 72, "published_at": "2017-11-29T16:31:13.947Z", "resolution_notes": ["Answer is 1242.65 per resolution instructions."], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-15T18:41:56.842Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-12-12T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-11-29T09:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-11-29T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/248 | This question was closed with the correct answer 'Donald Trump' with an end date of 8 November 2016. Donald Trump won the state of North Carolina on November 8. (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/president" target="_blank">NY Times</a>)
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>
<hr>
The presidential race in North Carolina is likely to be competitive (<a href="https://www.yahoo.com/news/swing-states-states-decide-2016-214642656.html?ref=gs" target="_blank">Yahoo! News</a>, <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/02/the-most-valuable-voters-of-2016/431865/" target="_blank">The Atlantic</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/23/the-fixs-first-2016-electoral-college-ratings-are-here/" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>).
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<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/124" target="_blank">Who will win the 2016 US presidential election?</a>
<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/247" target="_blank">Which presidential candidate will win Georgia?</a>
<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/249" target="_blank">Which presidential candidate will win Virginia?</a> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-11-08T18:00:33.000Z", "created_at": "2016-07-29T15:49:56.130Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 469, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Donald Trump", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 436, "predictions_count": 1320, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 248, "question_name": "Which presidential candidate will win North Carolina?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-11-17T14:48:40.549Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:35.203Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-11-08T18:00:33.000Z", "created_at": "2016-07-29T15:49:56.113Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 468, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Hillary Clinton", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 436, "predictions_count": 1320, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 248, "question_name": "Which presidential candidate will win North Carolina?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-11-17T14:50:31.590Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:34.717Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-11-08T18:00:33.000Z", "created_at": "2016-07-29T15:49:56.142Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 470, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Someone else", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 436, "predictions_count": 1320, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 248, "question_name": "Which presidential candidate will win North Carolina?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-11-17T14:52:17.176Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:35.679Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1334, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "This question was closed with the correct answer 'Donald Trump' with an end date of 8 November 2016. Donald Trump won the state of North Carolina on November 8. (<a href=\"http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/president\" target=\"_blank\">NY Times</a>)\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a> \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nThe presidential race in North Carolina is likely to be competitive (<a href=\"https://www.yahoo.com/news/swing-states-states-decide-2016-214642656.html?ref=gs\" target=\"_blank\">Yahoo! News</a>, <a href=\"http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/02/the-most-valuable-voters-of-2016/431865/\" target=\"_blank\">The Atlantic</a>, <a href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/23/the-fixs-first-2016-electoral-college-ratings-are-here/\" target=\"_blank\">Washington Post</a>).\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/124\" target=\"_blank\">Who will win the 2016 US presidential election?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/247\" target=\"_blank\">Which presidential candidate will win Georgia?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/249\" target=\"_blank\">Which presidential candidate will win Virginia?</a>", "ends_at": "2016-11-09T07:59:42.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 248, "image": null, "membership_id": 27345, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:11:04.127+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:09:00.485+00:00"}, "name": "Which presidential candidate will win North Carolina?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1320, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 436, "published_at": "2016-07-29T15:49:56.184Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-11-17T14:52:17.302Z", "scoring_end_time": "2016-11-08T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-07-29T10:00:42.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-07-29T17:00:42.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.840Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/410 | Many migrants and refugees are still making the dangerous trip across the Mediterranean to Europe (<a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/migrant-boat-traffic-from-libya-to-europe-is-surging--and-turning-deadlier/2016/11/29/232f6aa0-b0be-11e6-bc2d-19b3d759cfe7_story.html"target="_blank">Washington Post</a>, <a href = "http://www.euro.who.int/en/media-centre/sections/press-releases/2016/12/first-who-toolkit-to-strengthen-europes-health-response-to-migration"target="_blank">World Health Organization Europe</a>). This question will be resolved using the data available on (<a href = "http://data.unhcr.org/mediterranean/regional.html"target="_blank">UNHCR's Emergency Response Page for the Mediterranean</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2017 and will be scored based on the data available on 31 January 2018.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/15-will-bashar-al-assad-cease-to-be-president-of-syria-before-1-march-2017" target = "_blank">Bashar al-Assad will cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017</a> or on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/96-before-april-2016-will-the-french-army-or-foreign-legion-deploy-combat-troops-to-fight-the-islamic-state-on-the-ground-in-syria-or-iraq" target = "_blank">the French Army or Foreign Legion will deploy combat troops to fight the Islamic State on the ground in Syria or Iraq.</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<a href = "http://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/mediterranean"target="_bank">172,301</a> refugees and migrants arrived in Europe by sea in 2017. This question was closed as "b) Between 100,000 and 300,000, inclusive" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-01T18:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2017-02-14T17:00:26.230Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 799, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Less than 100,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 251, "predictions_count": 1178, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 410, "question_name": "How many refugees and migrants will arrive in Europe by sea in 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-31T21:26:52.721Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:35.671Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-01T18:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2017-02-14T17:00:26.273Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 800, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 100,000 and 300,000, inclusive ", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 251, "predictions_count": 1178, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 410, "question_name": "How many refugees and migrants will arrive in Europe by sea in 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-31T21:26:02.497Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:35.818Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-01T18:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2017-02-14T17:00:26.307Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 801, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 300,000 but less than 500,000 ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 251, "predictions_count": 1178, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 410, "question_name": "How many refugees and migrants will arrive in Europe by sea in 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-31T21:27:34.821Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:35.995Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-01T18:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2017-02-14T17:00:26.342Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 802, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 500,000 and 750,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 251, "predictions_count": 1178, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 410, "question_name": "How many refugees and migrants will arrive in Europe by sea in 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-31T21:26:25.949Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:36.139Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-01T18:00:18.000Z", "created_at": "2017-02-14T17:00:26.413Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 803, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 750,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 251, "predictions_count": 1178, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 410, "question_name": "How many refugees and migrants will arrive in Europe by sea in 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-31T21:27:13.557Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:36.585Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1210, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-02-14T19:07:26.380Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 320, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "Many migrants and refugees are still making the dangerous trip across the Mediterranean to Europe (<a href = \"https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/migrant-boat-traffic-from-libya-to-europe-is-surging--and-turning-deadlier/2016/11/29/232f6aa0-b0be-11e6-bc2d-19b3d759cfe7_story.html\"target=\"_blank\">Washington Post</a>, <a href = \"http://www.euro.who.int/en/media-centre/sections/press-releases/2016/12/first-who-toolkit-to-strengthen-europes-health-response-to-migration\"target=\"_blank\">World Health Organization Europe</a>). This question will be resolved using the data available on (<a href = \"http://data.unhcr.org/mediterranean/regional.html\"target=\"_blank\">UNHCR's Emergency Response Page for the Mediterranean</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2017 and will be scored based on the data available on 31 January 2018.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether <a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/15-will-bashar-al-assad-cease-to-be-president-of-syria-before-1-march-2017\" target = \"_blank\">Bashar al-Assad will cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017</a> or on whether <a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/96-before-april-2016-will-the-french-army-or-foreign-legion-deploy-combat-troops-to-fight-the-islamic-state-on-the-ground-in-syria-or-iraq\" target = \"_blank\">the French Army or Foreign Legion will deploy combat troops to fight the Islamic State on the ground in Syria or Iraq.</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n<a href = \"http://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/mediterranean\"target=\"_bank\">172,301</a> refugees and migrants arrived in Europe by sea in 2017. This question was closed as \"b) Between 100,000 and 300,000, inclusive\" with an end date of 1 January 2018.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n", "ends_at": "2018-01-01T07:59:49.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 410, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:27:12.385+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:24:26.410+00:00"}, "name": "How many refugees and migrants will arrive in Europe by sea in 2017?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1178, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 251, "published_at": "2017-02-14T17:00:26.530Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-31T21:27:34.834Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-12-31T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-02-14T10:00:49.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-02-14T18:00:49.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.869Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/358 | Britain's vote to leave the European Union has been followed by a depreciation in the value of the British pound as investors fear a "hard" Brexit (<a href="http://www.theworldin.com/article/12590/home-truths" target="_blank">The World in 2017</a>). Outcome will be determined according to data provided by <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GBPEUR:CUR" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>.
<sub>This question will be scored using our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq6" target="_blank">ordered categorical scoring rule</a>.</sub>
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/183" target="_blank">inflation and GDP growth in the G7</a> or <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/308" target="_blank">growth in Iran's monthly oil production</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question was closed as "More than 1.10 but less than 1.20 euros" with an end date of 31 March 2017. The closing value on 31 March 2017 was 1.1778 (<a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GBPEUR:CUR"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-03-31T17:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2016-12-06T16:17:45.638Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 664, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Less than 1.00 euro", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 811, "predictions_count": 1738, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 358, "question_name": "What will be the end-of-day closing value for the British pound against the euro on 31 March 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-04-03T19:31:28.337Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:37.735Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-03-31T17:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2016-12-06T16:17:45.663Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 665, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Between 1.00 and 1.10 euros, inclusive ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 811, "predictions_count": 1738, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 358, "question_name": "What will be the end-of-day closing value for the British pound against the euro on 31 March 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-04-03T19:32:35.796Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:37.976Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-03-31T17:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2016-12-06T16:17:45.674Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 666, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "More than 1.10 but less than 1.20 euros", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 811, "predictions_count": 1738, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 358, "question_name": "What will be the end-of-day closing value for the British pound against the euro on 31 March 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-04-03T19:32:13.150Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:38.185Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-03-31T17:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2016-12-06T16:17:45.685Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 667, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Between 1.20 and 1.30 euros, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 811, "predictions_count": 1738, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 358, "question_name": "What will be the end-of-day closing value for the British pound against the euro on 31 March 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-04-03T19:31:49.813Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:38.329Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-03-31T17:00:51.000Z", "created_at": "2016-12-06T16:17:45.697Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 668, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "More than 1.30 euros", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 811, "predictions_count": 1738, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 358, "question_name": "What will be the end-of-day closing value for the British pound against the euro on 31 March 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-04-03T19:31:05.330Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:38.598Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1758, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2016-12-07T22:59:51.397Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 113, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "1%", "description": "Britain's vote to leave the European Union has been followed by a depreciation in the value of the British pound as investors fear a \"hard\" Brexit (<a href=\"http://www.theworldin.com/article/12590/home-truths\" target=\"_blank\">The World in 2017</a>). Outcome will be determined according to data provided by <a href=\"http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GBPEUR:CUR\" target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>.\r\n\r\n<sub>This question will be scored using our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq6\" target=\"_blank\">ordered categorical scoring rule</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/183\" target=\"_blank\">inflation and GDP growth in the G7</a> or <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/308\" target=\"_blank\">growth in Iran's monthly oil production</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nThis question was closed as \"More than 1.10 but less than 1.20 euros\" with an end date of 31 March 2017. The closing value on 31 March 2017 was 1.1778 (<a href = \"https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GBPEUR:CUR\"target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>). \r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>", "ends_at": "2017-03-31T06:59:14.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 358, "image": null, "membership_id": 27345, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:24:56.832+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:16:48.164+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the end-of-day closing value for the British pound against the euro on 31 March 2017?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1738, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 811, "published_at": "2016-12-06T16:17:45.767Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-04-03T19:32:35.806Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-03-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-12-06T10:00:14.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-12-06T18:00:14.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.858Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/636 | This question will be resolved using the daily closing price of the market of interest reported by <a href="https://finance.google.com/finance?q=INDEXDB%3ADAX&ei=dO3LWeGyONHDmAHty6yoBA" target="_blank">Google Finance</a>. Question will be suspended the day before the date of interest and resolved the day after the date of interest. | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-30T15:45:33.000Z", "created_at": "2017-09-29T17:48:21.691Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1316, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Less than 11,897.71", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 96, "predictions_count": 157, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 636, "question_name": "What will the daily closing price of Germany's DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX (INDEXDB: DAX) be on 31 October 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-08T20:45:39.776Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:16.970Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-30T15:45:33.000Z", "created_at": "2017-09-29T17:48:21.808Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1317, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 11,897.71 and 12,213.98, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 96, "predictions_count": 157, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 636, "question_name": "What will the daily closing price of Germany's DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX (INDEXDB: DAX) be on 31 October 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-08T20:45:38.044Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:17.081Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-10-30T15:45:33.000Z", "created_at": "2017-09-29T17:48:21.913Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1318, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 12,213.98", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 96, "predictions_count": 157, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 636, "question_name": "What will the daily closing price of Germany's DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX (INDEXDB: DAX) be on 31 October 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-08T20:45:41.595Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:17.433Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 157, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-10-04T16:04:45.560Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 25, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "This question will be resolved using the daily closing price of the market of interest reported by <a href=\"https://finance.google.com/finance?q=INDEXDB%3ADAX&ei=dO3LWeGyONHDmAHty6yoBA\" target=\"_blank\">Google Finance</a>. Question will be suspended the day before the date of interest and resolved the day after the date of interest.", "ends_at": "2017-10-30T06:59:01.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 636, "image": null, "membership_id": 36637, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:39:20.451+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:38:57.576+00:00"}, "name": "What will the daily closing price of Germany's DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX (INDEXDB: DAX) be on 31 October 2017?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 157, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 96, "published_at": "2017-10-04T13:27:44.671Z", "resolution_notes": ["31-Oct is a public holiday in Germany. The closing price on 30-Oct was: 13,229.57.\r\nhttps://finance.google.com/finance?q=INDEXDB%3ADAX&ei=dO3LWeGyONHDmAHty6yoBA"], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-08T20:45:41.608Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-10-29T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-10-04T09:00:01.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-10-04T16:00:01.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1061 | <p>In March 2017, the UK triggered Article 50, which set off a two-year countdown before the UK officially leaves the EU on 29 March 2019 (<a href="https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A12012M050" target="_blank">EUR-Lex</a>). The process for extending the deadline is included in Article 50 and the European Court of Justice has recently ruled that the UK can also revoke its notification (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-46481643" target="_blank">BBC</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
</p><hr>
<p></p><p><br></p><hr><p>This question closed as "It will be extended by the UK and the European Council" with an end date of 22 March 2019.
</p><p><sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
</sub></p> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-04-22T17:00:19.000Z", "created_at": "2018-12-20T23:01:15.237Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2421, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "It will be revoked by the UK", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 626, "predictions_count": 1306, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1061, "question_name": "Before 30 March 2019, what will happen next with regard to the UK's notification of Article 50?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-04-03T16:03:33.943Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:04:29.279Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-04-22T17:00:19.000Z", "created_at": "2018-12-20T23:01:15.256Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2422, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "It will be extended by the UK and the European Council", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 626, "predictions_count": 1306, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1061, "question_name": "Before 30 March 2019, what will happen next with regard to the UK's notification of Article 50?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-04-03T16:02:43.564Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:04:30.405Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-04-22T17:00:19.000Z", "created_at": "2018-12-20T23:01:15.271Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2423, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Neither of the above will occur and the UK will leave the EU", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 626, "predictions_count": 1306, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1061, "question_name": "Before 30 March 2019, what will happen next with regard to the UK's notification of Article 50?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-04-03T16:03:10.557Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:04:34.758Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1583, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2019-01-06T16:08:36.622Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 82, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "16%", "description": "<p>In March 2017, the UK triggered Article 50, which set off a two-year countdown before the UK officially leaves the EU on 29 March 2019 (<a href=\"https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A12012M050\" target=\"_blank\">EUR-Lex</a>). The process for extending the deadline is included in Article 50 and the European Court of Justice has recently ruled that the UK can also revoke its notification (<a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-46481643\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>). \r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n</p><hr>\r\n<p></p><p><br></p><hr><p>This question closed as \"It will be extended by the UK and the European Council\" with an end date of 22 March 2019.\r\n</p><p><sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n</sub></p>", "ends_at": "2019-03-30T06:59:38.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1061, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:59:38.189+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:56:29.985+00:00"}, "name": "Before 30 March 2019, what will happen next with regard to the UK's notification of Article 50?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1306, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 626, "published_at": "2018-12-20T23:01:15.326Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-04-03T16:03:33.961Z", "scoring_end_time": "2019-03-29T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-12-21T00:00:38.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-12-21T08:00:38.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.993Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/888 | Midterm elections are scheduled for 6 November 2018 (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/us/elections/calendar-primary-results.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/politics/2018-election-calendar/?utm_term=.5999c929d81e"target="_blank">Washington Post</a>). Independents will be counted for the party with which they caucus or conference.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as <a href = "https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2018/house/"target="_blank">"Democratic Party, with 230 or more representatives on 6 November"</a> with an end date of 6 November 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-11-06T18:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2018-02-14T16:32:16.112Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1950, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Democratic Party, with 230 or more representatives", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 419, "predictions_count": 1106, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 888, "question_name": "Which party will hold a majority in the US House of Representatives after the 2018 midterm elections?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-11-27T14:53:10.666Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:33.377Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-11-06T18:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2018-02-14T16:32:16.150Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1951, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Democratic Party, with less than 230 representatives", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 419, "predictions_count": 1106, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 888, "question_name": "Which party will hold a majority in the US House of Representatives after the 2018 midterm elections?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-11-27T14:52:42.627Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:33.661Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-11-06T18:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2018-02-14T16:32:16.181Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1952, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Republican Party, with less than 230 representatives", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 419, "predictions_count": 1106, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 888, "question_name": "Which party will hold a majority in the US House of Representatives after the 2018 midterm elections?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-11-27T14:52:56.765Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:34.012Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-11-06T18:00:53.000Z", "created_at": "2018-02-14T16:32:16.214Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1953, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Republican Party, with 230 or more representatives", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 419, "predictions_count": 1106, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 888, "question_name": "Which party will hold a majority in the US House of Representatives after the 2018 midterm elections?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-11-27T14:52:27.561Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:58:34.175Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1267, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "Midterm elections are scheduled for 6 November 2018 (<a href = \"https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/us/elections/calendar-primary-results.html\"target=\"_blank\">NY Times</a>, <a href = \"https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/politics/2018-election-calendar/?utm_term=.5999c929d81e\"target=\"_blank\">Washington Post</a>). Independents will be counted for the party with which they caucus or conference.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n\r\nThis question closed as <a href = \"https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2018/house/\"target=\"_blank\">\"Democratic Party, with 230 or more representatives on 6 November\"</a> with an end date of 6 November 2018.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-11-06T07:59:46.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 888, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:50:00.252+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:47:23.185+00:00"}, "name": "Which party will hold a majority in the US House of Representatives after the 2018 midterm elections?\r\n", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1106, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 419, "published_at": "2018-02-14T16:32:16.320Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-11-27T14:53:10.683Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-11-05T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-02-14T10:00:46.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-02-14T18:00:46.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.906Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/368 | The U.S. has been pressing India to sign three defense foundational agreements -- the Logistics Supply Agreement (LSA), the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA), and the Communication and Information Security Memorandum of Agreement (CISMOA) -- to enable deeper cooperation between the two countries' militaries (<a href="http://thediplomat.com/2016/04/lsa-cismoa-beca-and-the-future-of-the-us-india-defense-partnership/" target="_blank">The Diplomat</a>). India signed the LSA in August 2016 (<a href="http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/international/2016/04/12/india-us-reach-agreement-logistics-boost-defense-ties/82936758/" target="_blank">Defense News</a>), but it has not yet agreed to the other two. Renaming of the BECA or CISMOA agreements will not affect the resolution of this question (<a href="http://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/india-us-communication-pact-faces-uphill-climb-116090500698_1.html" target="_blank">Business Standard</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, try forecasting on <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/350" target="_blank">whether both India and Pakistan will attend a SAARC summit before 1 January 2018</a> or <a>whether there will be a new episode of mass killing in India before 2017</a>.</sub>
<hr>
India did not sign either of the two remaining defense foundational agreements with the U.S. before 2018. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-01T18:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2016-12-20T17:24:14.088Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 689, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "No", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 196, "predictions_count": 993, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 368, "question_name": "Will India sign either of the two remaining defense foundational agreements with the U.S. before 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-02T19:25:20.945Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:43.792Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-01T18:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2016-12-20T17:24:14.111Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 690, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Yes, but only one", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 196, "predictions_count": 993, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 368, "question_name": "Will India sign either of the two remaining defense foundational agreements with the U.S. before 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-02T19:24:05.886Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:43.966Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-01-01T18:00:04.000Z", "created_at": "2016-12-20T17:24:14.128Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 691, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Yes, both", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 196, "predictions_count": 993, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 368, "question_name": "Will India sign either of the two remaining defense foundational agreements with the U.S. before 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-02T19:26:49.392Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:44.552Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 998, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2016-12-21T08:30:49.507Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 375, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "The U.S. has been pressing India to sign three defense foundational agreements -- the Logistics Supply Agreement (LSA), the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA), and the Communication and Information Security Memorandum of Agreement (CISMOA) -- to enable deeper cooperation between the two countries' militaries (<a href=\"http://thediplomat.com/2016/04/lsa-cismoa-beca-and-the-future-of-the-us-india-defense-partnership/\" target=\"_blank\">The Diplomat</a>). India signed the LSA in August 2016 (<a href=\"http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/international/2016/04/12/india-us-reach-agreement-logistics-boost-defense-ties/82936758/\" target=\"_blank\">Defense News</a>), but it has not yet agreed to the other two. Renaming of the BECA or CISMOA agreements will not affect the resolution of this question (<a href=\"http://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/india-us-communication-pact-faces-uphill-climb-116090500698_1.html\" target=\"_blank\">Business Standard</a>).\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n<sub>If you liked this question, try forecasting on <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/350\" target=\"_blank\">whether both India and Pakistan will attend a SAARC summit before 1 January 2018</a> or <a>whether there will be a new episode of mass killing in India before 2017</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nIndia did not sign either of the two remaining defense foundational agreements with the U.S. before 2018. This question closed as \"no\" with an end date of 1 January 2018.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-01-01T07:59:05.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 368, "image": null, "membership_id": 27345, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:20:24.087+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:18:26.784+00:00"}, "name": "Will India sign either of the two remaining defense foundational agreements with the U.S. before 2018?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 993, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 196, "published_at": "2016-12-20T17:24:14.192Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-02T19:26:49.712Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-12-31T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-12-20T10:00:05.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-12-20T18:00:05.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.869Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/565 | This question will be resolved using the daily price reported by Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) for 31 October 2017 (<a href = "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXBZUS"target="_blank">FRED</a>). Values will be rounded to the nearest one-hundredth. Question will be suspended on the date of interest and resolved when the data is released, usually on Monday of the following week.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-01T06:59:54.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-23T19:08:41.989Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1167, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Less than 2.98", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 179, "predictions_count": 728, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 565, "question_name": "What will the daily price of the Brazilian real-to-US dollar exchange rate be on 31 October 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-09T16:29:38.514Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:24.050Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-01T06:59:54.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-23T19:08:42.126Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1168, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 2.98 and 3.11, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 179, "predictions_count": 728, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 565, "question_name": "What will the daily price of the Brazilian real-to-US dollar exchange rate be on 31 October 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-09T16:28:44.761Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:24.781Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-01T06:59:54.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-23T19:08:42.304Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1169, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 3.11 but less than 3.22", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 179, "predictions_count": 728, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 565, "question_name": "What will the daily price of the Brazilian real-to-US dollar exchange rate be on 31 October 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-09T16:31:40.116Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:26.815Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-01T06:59:54.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-23T19:08:42.410Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1170, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 3.22 and 3.34, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 179, "predictions_count": 728, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 565, "question_name": "What will the daily price of the Brazilian real-to-US dollar exchange rate be on 31 October 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-09T16:30:37.253Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:28.625Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-01T06:59:54.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-23T19:08:42.529Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1171, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 3.34", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 179, "predictions_count": 728, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 565, "question_name": "What will the daily price of the Brazilian real-to-US dollar exchange rate be on 31 October 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-09T16:27:50.141Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:29.308Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 744, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "This question will be resolved using the daily price reported by Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) for 31 October 2017 (<a href = \"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXBZUS\"target=\"_blank\">FRED</a>). Values will be rounded to the nearest one-hundredth. Question will be suspended on the date of interest and resolved when the data is released, usually on Monday of the following week.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>", "ends_at": "2017-11-01T06:59:45.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 565, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:41:43.405+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:36:06.676+00:00"}, "name": "What will the daily price of the Brazilian real-to-US dollar exchange rate be on 31 October 2017?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 728, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 179, "published_at": "2017-08-23T19:08:42.990Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-09T16:31:40.238Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-10-31T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-08-23T13:00:45.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-08-23T20:00:45.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/238 | To invoke Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon a member state must notify the European Council of its intention to withdraw from the European Union (<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/06/24/article-50-the-untested-piece-of-e-u-legislation-that-will-control-britains-future/?wpisrc=nl_wv-draw6&wpmm=1" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>, <a href="http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty/treaty-on-european-union-and-comments/title-6-final-provisions/137-article-50.html" target="_blank">Lisbon Treaty</a>). Although a majority of voters in the United Kingdom's June 2016 referendum on European Union membership voted to leave the EU (<a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887" target="_blank">BBC</a>), it is unclear when Article 50 will be invoked or if it will govern the UK's withdrawal process (<a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/after-brexit-vote-europes-leaders-debate-timing-of-u-k-s-departure-1466983952" target="_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>, <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-scenarios-factbox-idUKKCN0ZC0WI" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://next.ft.com/content/d24b4dcc-3b9f-11e6-8716-a4a71e8140b0" target="_blank">Financial Times</a>).
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This question was closed as "Between 1 January 2017 and 30 June 2017" with an end date of 29 March 2017 (<a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-idUSKBN16Z22G"target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/29/europe/article-50-brexit-theresa-may-eu/"target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39431070"target="_blank">BBC</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-03-29T17:00:07.000Z", "created_at": "2016-07-12T16:43:16.767Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 439, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "Between 12 July and 31 December 2016, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 771, "predictions_count": 3050, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 238, "question_name": "When will the United Kingdom invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-03-30T20:57:59.988Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:21.733Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-03-29T17:00:07.000Z", "created_at": "2016-07-12T16:43:16.784Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 440, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "Between 1 January 2017 and 30 June 2017, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 771, "predictions_count": 3050, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 238, "question_name": "When will the United Kingdom invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-03-30T20:55:29.369Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:22.302Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-03-29T17:00:07.000Z", "created_at": "2016-07-12T16:43:16.802Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 441, "membership_id": 4461, "name": "Not before 1 July 2017", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 771, "predictions_count": 3050, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 238, "question_name": "When will the United Kingdom invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-03-30T20:53:14.985Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:48:22.642Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 3292, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2016-08-20T18:43:36.913Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 221, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "15%", "description": "To invoke Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon a member state must notify the European Council of its intention to withdraw from the European Union (<a href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/06/24/article-50-the-untested-piece-of-e-u-legislation-that-will-control-britains-future/?wpisrc=nl_wv-draw6&wpmm=1\" target=\"_blank\">Washington Post</a>, <a href=\"http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty/treaty-on-european-union-and-comments/title-6-final-provisions/137-article-50.html\" target=\"_blank\">Lisbon Treaty</a>). Although a majority of voters in the United Kingdom's June 2016 referendum on European Union membership voted to leave the EU (<a href=\"http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>), it is unclear when Article 50 will be invoked or if it will govern the UK's withdrawal process (<a href=\"http://www.wsj.com/articles/after-brexit-vote-europes-leaders-debate-timing-of-u-k-s-departure-1466983952\" target=\"_blank\">Wall Street Journal</a>, <a href=\"http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-scenarios-factbox-idUKKCN0ZC0WI\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>, <a href=\"https://next.ft.com/content/d24b4dcc-3b9f-11e6-8716-a4a71e8140b0\" target=\"_blank\">Financial Times</a>).\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/236\" target=\"_blank\">Before 1 July 2017, will Scotland set a date for another referendum on independence from the United Kingdom?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/237\" target=\"_blank\">Before 1 July 2017, will any other European Union (EU) member state set a date for a referendum on leaving the EU?</a>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/239\" target=\"_blank\">What will the end-of-day closing value for the British pound against the US dollar be on 30 December 2016?</a>\r\n\r\nThis question was closed as \"Between 1 January 2017 and 30 June 2017\" with an end date of 29 March 2017 (<a href = \"http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-idUSKBN16Z22G\"target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>, <a href = \"http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/29/europe/article-50-brexit-theresa-may-eu/\"target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>, <a href = \"http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39431070\"target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>).\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>", "ends_at": "2017-07-01T06:59:31.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 238, "image": null, "membership_id": 4461, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:17:36.980+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:07:22.544+00:00"}, "name": "When will the United Kingdom invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 3050, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 771, "published_at": "2016-07-12T16:43:16.842Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-03-30T20:58:00.041Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-03-29T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-07-12T10:00:31.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-07-12T17:00:31.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.869Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/951 | Brazil's economy is facing increasing headwinds (<a href = "https://www.reuters.com/article/brazil-economy-activity/brazil-feb-economy-activity-underwhelms-as-recovery-stumbles-idUSL1N1RT0GN"target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "https://www.ft.com/content/f3d2cd90-1e46-11e8-aaca-4574d7dabfb6"target="_blank">Financial Times</a>). This question will be resolved using the closing value reported by <a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/IBOV:IND"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a> for 22 June 2018.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
The closing value for the Bovespa Stock Market Index was 70,640.65. This question closed as "b) Between 70,000 and 80,000 inclusive" with an end date of 22 June 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-22T17:00:03.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-10T02:28:07.811Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2123, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Less than 70,000 ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 47, "predictions_count": 221, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 951, "question_name": "What will be the closing value for the Bovespa Stock Market Index on 22 June 2018?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-06-25T14:03:00.893Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:55.043Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-22T17:00:03.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-10T02:28:07.868Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2124, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 70,000 and 80,000 inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 47, "predictions_count": 221, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 951, "question_name": "What will be the closing value for the Bovespa Stock Market Index on 22 June 2018?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-06-25T14:02:31.045Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:55.298Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-22T17:00:03.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-10T02:28:07.936Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2125, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 80,000 but less than 90,000 ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 47, "predictions_count": 221, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 951, "question_name": "What will be the closing value for the Bovespa Stock Market Index on 22 June 2018?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-06-25T14:02:02.491Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:55.677Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-22T17:00:03.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-10T02:28:08.016Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2126, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 90,000 and 100,000 inclusive ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 47, "predictions_count": 221, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 951, "question_name": "What will be the closing value for the Bovespa Stock Market Index on 22 June 2018?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-06-25T14:01:36.015Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:56.072Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-22T17:00:03.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-10T02:28:08.079Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2127, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "100,000 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 47, "predictions_count": 221, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 951, "question_name": "What will be the closing value for the Bovespa Stock Market Index on 22 June 2018?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-06-25T14:01:06.284Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:56.228Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 228, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-06-19T18:12:18.088Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 2, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "95%", "description": "Brazil's economy is facing increasing headwinds (<a href = \"https://www.reuters.com/article/brazil-economy-activity/brazil-feb-economy-activity-underwhelms-as-recovery-stumbles-idUSL1N1RT0GN\"target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>, <a href = \"https://www.ft.com/content/f3d2cd90-1e46-11e8-aaca-4574d7dabfb6\"target=\"_blank\">Financial Times</a>). This question will be resolved using the closing value reported by <a href = \"https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/IBOV:IND\"target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a> for 22 June 2018.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n\r\nThe closing value for the Bovespa Stock Market Index was 70,640.65. This question closed as \"b) Between 70,000 and 80,000 inclusive\" with an end date of 22 June 2018.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. ", "ends_at": "2018-06-22T06:59:13.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 951, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:52:07.382+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:51:36.993+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the closing value for the Bovespa Stock Market Index on 22 June 2018?\r\n", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 221, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 47, "published_at": "2018-05-10T02:28:08.325Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-06-25T14:03:01.093Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-06-21T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-05-09T19:28:08.325-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-05-09T17:00:49.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2021-09-16T02:52:07.388Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1034 | The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) over the past 12 months is reported monthly for all items, before seasonal adjustment, via a press release found under <a href = "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm"target="_blank">"Consumer Price Index Summary"</a>, and for the past 20 years on this graph by selecting <a href = "https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm"target="_blank">"All items"</a>. In September 2018, the CPI-U all items index over the last 12 months increased 2.3 percent (<a href = "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_10112018.htm"target="_blank">The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)</a>). This question will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and closed when the relevant data are first released, scheduled for the first half of January 2019 (<a href = "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm"target="_blank">BLS</a>, <a href = "https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm"target="_blank">BLS</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
The question closed A: Less than 2.0%, with a December read of 1.9% change in the U.S. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for the 12 months ending in December 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-01-01T18:00:54.000Z", "created_at": "2018-11-01T20:06:30.964Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2335, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Less than 2.0%", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 318, "predictions_count": 502, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 1034, "question_name": "What will be the percent change in the U.S. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for the 12 months ending in December 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-01-11T16:26:27.223Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:03:13.444Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-01-01T18:00:54.000Z", "created_at": "2018-11-01T20:06:31.054Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2336, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 2.0% and 2.2%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 318, "predictions_count": 502, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1034, "question_name": "What will be the percent change in the U.S. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for the 12 months ending in December 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-01-11T16:26:19.150Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:03:14.383Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-01-01T18:00:54.000Z", "created_at": "2018-11-01T20:06:31.089Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2337, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 2.3% and 2.5%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 318, "predictions_count": 502, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1034, "question_name": "What will be the percent change in the U.S. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for the 12 months ending in December 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-01-11T16:26:11.448Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:03:14.793Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-01-01T18:00:54.000Z", "created_at": "2018-11-01T20:06:31.194Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2338, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 2.6% and 2.8%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 318, "predictions_count": 502, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1034, "question_name": "What will be the percent change in the U.S. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for the 12 months ending in December 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-01-11T16:26:05.129Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:03:15.313Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2019-01-01T18:00:54.000Z", "created_at": "2018-11-01T20:06:31.248Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2339, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 2.8%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 318, "predictions_count": 502, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 1034, "question_name": "What will be the percent change in the U.S. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for the 12 months ending in December 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-01-11T16:25:59.475Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:03:15.910Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 509, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) over the past 12 months is reported monthly for all items, before seasonal adjustment, via a press release found under <a href = \"https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm\"target=\"_blank\">\"Consumer Price Index Summary\"</a>, and for the past 20 years on this graph by selecting <a href = \"https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm\"target=\"_blank\">\"All items\"</a>. In September 2018, the CPI-U all items index over the last 12 months increased 2.3 percent (<a href = \"https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_10112018.htm\"target=\"_blank\">The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)</a>). This question will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and closed when the relevant data are first released, scheduled for the first half of January 2019 (<a href = \"https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm\"target=\"_blank\">BLS</a>, <a href = \"https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm\"target=\"_blank\">BLS</a>). \r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n\r\nThe question closed A: Less than 2.0%, with a December read of 1.9% change in the U.S. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for the 12 months ending in December 2018.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. ", "ends_at": "2019-01-01T07:59:51.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 1034, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:56:59.061+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:54:15.488+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the percent change in the U.S. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for the 12 months ending in December 2018?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 502, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 318, "published_at": "2018-11-01T20:06:31.447Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2019-01-11T16:26:27.253Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-12-31T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-11-01T20:59:51.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-11-02T03:59:51.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.970Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/87 | <img height="1" width="1" style="display:none" src="https://www.facebook.com/tr?id=570990896342688&ev=PageView&noscript=1"/>Christine Lagarde's first term as managing director of the IMF will end in July of 2016 (<a href="http://www.theworldin.com/article/10639" target="_blank">The World in 2016</a>). She has indicated that she is willing to serve another term as IMF managing director, but there have been indications that the next leader may be a non-European (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/25/us-imf-leader-idUSKCN0PZ06820150725" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/a315b364-6de9-11e5-8171-ba1968cf791a.html#axzz3qeVPiAto" target="_blank">Financial Times</a>).
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She has indicated that she is willing to serve another term as IMF managing director, but there have been indications that the next leader may be a non-European (<a href=\"http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/25/us-imf-leader-idUSKCN0PZ06820150725\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>, <a href=\"http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/a315b364-6de9-11e5-8171-ba1968cf791a.html#axzz3qeVPiAto\" target=\"_blank\">Financial Times</a>).\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions\r\n<a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/80-before-1-may-2016-will-britain-set-a-date-for-a-referendum-on-eu-membership\" target = \"_blank\">Before 1 May 2016, will Britain set a date for a referendum on EU membership?</a>\r\n<a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/116-who-will-be-the-next-mayor-of-london\" target = \"_blank\">Who will be the next mayor of London?</a>\r\n<a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/134-when-will-germany-announce-that-it-is-limiting-the-total-number-of-asylum-seekers-or-refugees-that-it-will-accept\" target = \"_blank\">When will Germany announce that it is limiting the total number of asylum seekers or refugees that it will accept?</a>", "ends_at": "2016-08-01T06:59:29.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 87, "image": null, "membership_id": 6, "metadata": {}, "name": "Who will be the next managing director of the IMF?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1321, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 528, "published_at": "2015-11-24T17:23:22.713Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-02-20T00:16:07.077Z", "scoring_end_time": "2016-02-19T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2015-11-24T10:00:29.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2015-11-24T18:00:29.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.836Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/209 | This question resolved on 1 July 2016: The sanctions have been extended for six months (<a href="http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2016/07/01-russia-sanctions/" target="_blank">European Council</a>, <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/eu-extends-economic-sanctions-on-russia-by-six-months-1467374482" target="_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>, <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/eu-extends-sanctions-russia-months-40273887" target="_blank">ABC News</a>)
The sectoral sanctions are described under the heading "Economic Sanctions-Measures Targeting Exchanges with Russia in Specific Economic Sectors" in <a href="http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/sanctions/ukraine-crisis/" target="_blank">this EU document</a>. They do not include the sanctions targeting individuals or the broad sanctions against Crimea. In the spring of 2015, the EU tied the lifting of these sanctions to the full implementation of the Minsk agreement between Russia and Ukraine, and in December 2015 EU leaders agreed to extend the sanctions until at least the end of July 2016 (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-eu-russia-idUSKCN0YA134" target="_blank">Reuters</a>).
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They do not include the sanctions targeting individuals or the broad sanctions against Crimea. 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True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/411 | Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by <a href ="http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GBPUSD:CUR"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
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</hr>
The end-of-day closing value for the British pound against the U.S. dollar on 30 June 2017 was $1.30. This question was closed as "d) Between $1.30 and $1.40, inclusive" with an end date of 30 June 2017.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-07-01T06:59:55.000Z", "created_at": "2017-02-14T17:11:55.656Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 804, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Less than $1.10", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 335, "predictions_count": 1258, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 411, "question_name": "What will be the end-of-day closing value for the British pound against the U.S. dollar on 30 June 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-07-06T16:09:40.924Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:36.957Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-07-01T06:59:55.000Z", "created_at": "2017-02-14T17:11:55.683Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 805, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between $1.10 and $1.20, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 335, "predictions_count": 1258, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 411, "question_name": "What will be the end-of-day closing value for the British pound against the U.S. dollar on 30 June 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-07-06T16:09:01.469Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:37.267Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-07-01T06:59:55.000Z", "created_at": "2017-02-14T17:11:55.704Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 806, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than $1.20 but less than $1.30 ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 335, "predictions_count": 1258, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 411, "question_name": "What will be the end-of-day closing value for the British pound against the U.S. dollar on 30 June 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-07-06T16:08:21.779Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:37.542Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-07-01T06:59:55.000Z", "created_at": "2017-02-14T17:11:55.748Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 807, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between $1.30 and $1.40, inclusive ", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 335, "predictions_count": 1258, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 411, "question_name": "What will be the end-of-day closing value for the British pound against the U.S. dollar on 30 June 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-07-06T16:07:00.360Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:37.873Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-07-01T06:59:55.000Z", "created_at": "2017-02-14T17:11:55.788Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 808, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than $1.40", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 335, "predictions_count": 1258, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 411, "question_name": "What will be the end-of-day closing value for the British pound against the U.S. dollar on 30 June 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-07-06T16:07:42.361Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:38.361Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1279, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by <a href =\"http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GBPUSD:CUR\"target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/270\"target = \"_blank\">whether Egypt\u2019s GDP growth rate for their 2016/2017 fiscal year equal or exceed 5%</a> or on <a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/356-what-will-the-european-central-bank-ecb-do-with-respect-to-the-deposit-rate-at-its-january-2017-monetary-policy-meeting\"target = \"_blank\">what the European Central Bank (ECB) will do with respect to the deposit rate</a> .</sub>\r\n\r\n</hr>\r\n\r\nThe end-of-day closing value for the British pound against the U.S. dollar on 30 June 2017 was $1.30. This question was closed as \"d) Between $1.30 and $1.40, inclusive\" with an end date of 30 June 2017.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>", "ends_at": "2017-07-01T06:59:02.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 411, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:34:12.491+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:24:27.516+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the end-of-day closing value for the British pound against the U.S. dollar on 30 June 2017?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1258, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 335, "published_at": "2017-02-14T17:11:55.870Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-07-06T16:09:40.976Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-06-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-02-14T10:00:02.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-02-14T18:00:02.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.858Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/935 | For years, California has issued permits for testing of autonomous vehicles, provided that drivers remain in the car (<a href = "https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/detail/vr/autonomous/testing?lang=en"target="_blank">California DMV</a>, <a href = "https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/detail/vr/autonomous/permit"target="_blank">California DMV</a>, <a href = "https://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21737418-driverless-vehicles-will-change-world-just-cars-did-them-what-went-wrong?frsc=dg%7Ce"target="_blank">The Economist</a>). On 2 April 2018, the California DMV was authorized to approve permits for manufacturer's driverless testing of autonomous vehicles (<a href = "https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/detail/vr/autonomous/auto?lang=en"target="_blank">California DMV</a>, <a href = "https://www.sfchronicle.com/business/article/Exclusive-Waymo-appplies-for-no-driver-testing-12832425.php"target="_blank">San Francisco Chronicle</a>).
<hr>
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-01T21:16:41.000Z", "created_at": "2018-04-18T16:47:35.261Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2058, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "0", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 154, "predictions_count": 312, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 935, "question_name": "As of 1 July 2018, how many manufacturers will hold permits for driverless testing of autonomous vehicles in California?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-23T21:21:42.783Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:33.032Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-01T21:16:41.000Z", "created_at": "2018-04-18T16:47:35.350Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2059, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 1 and 3, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 154, "predictions_count": 312, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 935, "question_name": "As of 1 July 2018, how many manufacturers will hold permits for driverless testing of autonomous vehicles in California?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-23T21:22:22.076Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:33.820Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-01T21:16:41.000Z", "created_at": "2018-04-18T16:47:35.514Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2060, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 4 and 6, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 154, "predictions_count": 312, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 935, "question_name": "As of 1 July 2018, how many manufacturers will hold permits for driverless testing of autonomous vehicles in California?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-23T21:23:01.924Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:34.200Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-01T21:16:41.000Z", "created_at": "2018-04-18T16:47:35.734Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2061, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 7 and 9, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 154, "predictions_count": 312, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 935, "question_name": "As of 1 July 2018, how many manufacturers will hold permits for driverless testing of autonomous vehicles in California?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-23T21:23:32.292Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:34.817Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-01T21:16:41.000Z", "created_at": "2018-04-18T16:47:35.804Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2062, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "10 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 154, "predictions_count": 312, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 935, "question_name": "As of 1 July 2018, how many manufacturers will hold permits for driverless testing of autonomous vehicles in California?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-23T21:24:07.139Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:35.391Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 323, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-06-16T18:12:14.432Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 14, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "81%", "description": "For years, California has issued permits for testing of autonomous vehicles, provided that drivers remain in the car (<a href = \"https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/detail/vr/autonomous/testing?lang=en\"target=\"_blank\">California DMV</a>, <a href = \"https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/detail/vr/autonomous/permit\"target=\"_blank\">California DMV</a>, <a href = \"https://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21737418-driverless-vehicles-will-change-world-just-cars-did-them-what-went-wrong?frsc=dg%7Ce\"target=\"_blank\">The Economist</a>). On 2 April 2018, the California DMV was authorized to approve permits for manufacturer's driverless testing of autonomous vehicles (<a href = \"https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/detail/vr/autonomous/auto?lang=en\"target=\"_blank\">California DMV</a>, <a href = \"https://www.sfchronicle.com/business/article/Exclusive-Waymo-appplies-for-no-driver-testing-12832425.php\"target=\"_blank\">San Francisco Chronicle</a>).\r\n\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-07-01T06:59:44.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 935, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:51:26.051+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:50:03.855+00:00"}, "name": "As of 1 July 2018, how many manufacturers will hold permits for driverless testing of autonomous vehicles in California?\r\n", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 312, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 154, "published_at": "2018-04-18T16:47:36.149Z", "resolution_notes": ["<a href=\"https://sf.curbed.com/2018/4/30/17303652/driverless-car-autonomous-permit-second-company\" target=\"_blank\">No manufacturers hold permits</a> for driverless testing of autonomous vehicles in California. This question closed as \"0 (zero)\" with an end date of 1 July 2018.\r\n\r\n"], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-23T21:24:07.402Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-06-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-04-18T10:00:44.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-04-18T17:00:44.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.933Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/362 | This question was closed with the correct answer "Clemson" with an end date of 9 January 2017. Clemson defeated Alabama in the 2017 College Football Playoff National Championship (<a href = "http://www.espn.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/97953/clemson-blows-the-lid-off-what-the-program-can-accomplish"target="_blank">ESPN</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
The College Football Playoff National Championship is scheduled to be held on 9 January 2017 in Tampa, FL (<a href="http://www.collegefootballplayoff.com/" target="_blank">College Football Playoff</a>, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/04/sports/ncaafootball/college-football-playoff-alabama-ohio-state-washington-clemson.html?_r=0" target="_blank">NY Times</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/363" target="_blank">whether the Dakota Access Pipeline will begin transporting oil before January 2018</a>.</sub> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-01-09T18:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2016-12-09T16:59:34.449Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 674, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Alabama", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 147, "predictions_count": 281, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 362, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2017 College Football Playoff National Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-01-18T14:56:26.930Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:40.091Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-01-09T18:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2016-12-09T16:59:34.475Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 675, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Clemson", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 147, "predictions_count": 281, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 362, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2017 College Football Playoff National Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-01-18T14:56:29.895Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:40.412Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-01-09T18:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2016-12-09T16:59:34.491Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 676, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Ohio State", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 147, "predictions_count": 281, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 362, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2017 College Football Playoff National Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-01-18T14:56:34.846Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:40.561Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-01-09T18:00:27.000Z", "created_at": "2016-12-09T16:59:34.508Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 677, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Washington", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 147, "predictions_count": 281, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 362, "question_name": "Which team will win the 2017 College Football Playoff National Championship?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-01-18T14:56:38.914Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:40.716Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 284, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "This question was closed with the correct answer \"Clemson\" with an end date of 9 January 2017. Clemson defeated Alabama in the 2017 College Football Playoff National Championship (<a href = \"http://www.espn.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/97953/clemson-blows-the-lid-off-what-the-program-can-accomplish\"target=\"_blank\">ESPN</a>).\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nThe College Football Playoff National Championship is scheduled to be held on 9 January 2017 in Tampa, FL (<a href=\"http://www.collegefootballplayoff.com/\" target=\"_blank\">College Football Playoff</a>, <a href=\"http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/04/sports/ncaafootball/college-football-playoff-alabama-ohio-state-washington-clemson.html?_r=0\" target=\"_blank\">NY Times</a>).\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/363\" target=\"_blank\">whether the Dakota Access Pipeline will begin transporting oil before January 2018</a>.</sub>", "ends_at": "2017-01-10T07:59:48.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 362, "image": null, "membership_id": 27345, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:20:24.952+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:17:37.577+00:00"}, "name": "Which team will win the 2017 College Football Playoff National Championship?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 281, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 147, "published_at": "2016-12-09T16:59:34.606Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-01-18T14:56:38.929Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-01-09T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-12-09T10:00:55.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-12-09T18:00:55.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.863Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/395 | The <a href="http://www.oscars.org/" target="_blank">89th Academy Awards®</a> take place on Sunday, February 26.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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This question was closed on "La La Land (Damien Chazelle)" (<a href = "http://oscar.go.com/winners"target="_blank">The Oscars</a>) with an end date of 26 February 2017
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<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-02-27T18:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-27T17:04:42.856Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 741, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Arrival (Denis Villeneuve)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 101, "predictions_count": 183, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 395, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2017 Academy Award for Directing?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-02-28T14:57:28.905Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:16.799Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-02-27T18:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-27T17:04:42.876Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 742, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Hacksaw Ridge (Mel Gibson)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 101, "predictions_count": 183, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 395, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2017 Academy Award for Directing?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-02-28T14:58:02.540Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:17.211Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-02-27T18:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-27T17:04:42.891Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 743, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "La La Land (Damien Chazelle)", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 101, "predictions_count": 183, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 395, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2017 Academy Award for Directing?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-02-28T14:56:26.595Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:17.442Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-02-27T18:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-27T17:04:42.907Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 744, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Manchester by the Sea (Kenneth Lonergan)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 101, "predictions_count": 183, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 395, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2017 Academy Award for Directing?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-02-28T14:56:01.977Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:17.727Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-02-27T18:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2017-01-27T17:04:42.926Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 745, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Moonlight (Barry Jenkins)", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 101, "predictions_count": 183, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 395, "question_name": "Which film will win the 2017 Academy Award for Directing?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-02-28T14:56:57.254Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:50:17.964Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 184, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-01-27T20:28:40.617Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 30, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "The <a href=\"http://www.oscars.org/\" target=\"_blank\">89th Academy Awards\u00ae</a> take place on Sunday, February 26.\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on the rest of the Oscar Challenge <a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/14-the-oscars-2017\"target = \"_blank\">here</a>. \r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nThis question was closed on \"La La Land (Damien Chazelle)\" (<a href = \"http://oscar.go.com/winners\"target=\"_blank\">The Oscars</a>) with an end date of 26 February 2017\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\"\" target=\"\"_blank\"\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>", "ends_at": "2017-02-27T07:59:07.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 395, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:24:27.921+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:22:39.631+00:00"}, "name": "Which film will win the 2017 Academy Award for Directing?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 183, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 101, "published_at": "2017-01-27T17:04:42.974Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-02-28T14:58:02.949Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-02-26T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-01-27T10:00:07.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-01-27T18:00:07.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.890Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/566 | <b>South Africa's long-term interest rate was 9.12%. This question closed as "b) Between 9.08% and 9.24%, inclusive" with an end date of 31 August 2017.</b>
This question will be resolved using monthly data reported by the <a href = "https://data.oecd.org/interest/long-term-interest-rates.htm"target="_blank">Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)</a>. Data is retrievable via download or on the ñLong-term interest rates table on the web site. The relevant country can be found in the HIGHLIGHTED COUNTRIES or LOCATION field, and the relevant time period can be found in the TIME field. Values will be rounded to the nearest one-hundredth. Question will be suspended on the last day of the time period of interest and resolved when the data is released, likely the month after.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-08-31T06:59:27.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-23T19:16:16.352Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1172, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Less than 9.08%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 37, "predictions_count": 83, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 566, "question_name": "What will the long-term interest rate be for South Africa (ZAF) in August 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-20T19:17:25.632Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:30.148Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-08-31T06:59:27.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-23T19:16:16.406Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1173, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 9.08% and 9.24%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 37, "predictions_count": 83, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 566, "question_name": "What will the long-term interest rate be for South Africa (ZAF) in August 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-20T19:17:39.122Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:30.541Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-08-31T06:59:27.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-23T19:16:16.502Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1174, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 9.24% but less than 9.37%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 37, "predictions_count": 83, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 566, "question_name": "What will the long-term interest rate be for South Africa (ZAF) in August 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-20T19:17:55.682Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:30.984Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-08-31T06:59:27.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-23T19:16:16.560Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1175, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 9.37% and 9.52%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 37, "predictions_count": 83, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 566, "question_name": "What will the long-term interest rate be for South Africa (ZAF) in August 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-20T19:18:10.226Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:31.602Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-08-31T06:59:27.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-23T19:16:16.647Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1176, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 9.52%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 37, "predictions_count": 83, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 566, "question_name": "What will the long-term interest rate be for South Africa (ZAF) in August 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-20T19:17:11.850Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:33.328Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 93, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-08-25T19:44:14.323Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 5, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "29%", "description": "<b>South Africa's long-term interest rate was 9.12%. This question closed as \"b) Between 9.08% and 9.24%, inclusive\" with an end date of 31 August 2017.</b>\r\n\r\nThis question will be resolved using monthly data reported by the <a href = \"https://data.oecd.org/interest/long-term-interest-rates.htm\"target=\"_blank\">Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)</a>. Data is retrievable via download or on the \u00f1Long-term interest rates table on the web site. The relevant country can be found in the HIGHLIGHTED COUNTRIES or LOCATION field, and the relevant time period can be found in the TIME field. Values will be rounded to the nearest one-hundredth. Question will be suspended on the last day of the time period of interest and resolved when the data is released, likely the month after.\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>", "ends_at": "2017-09-01T06:59:13.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 566, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:36:26.702+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:36:11.287+00:00"}, "name": "What will the long-term interest rate be for South Africa (ZAF) in August 2017?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 83, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 37, "published_at": "2017-08-23T19:16:17.130Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-09-20T19:18:10.322Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-08-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-08-23T13:00:13.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-08-23T20:00:13.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/125 | For more information on the nominees see: <a href = "http://oscar.go.com/nominees" target = "blank">Oscar Nominees</a>
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"2016-03-01T21:32:47.099Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 6, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:46:31.692Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-02-29T01:00:33.000Z", "created_at": "2016-01-26T17:53:14.855Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 240, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Spotlight", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 491, "predictions_count": 937, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 125, "question_name": "Which movie will win the Oscar for Best Picture?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-03-01T21:32:47.099Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 7, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:46:32.668Z"}], "answers_count": 8, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1008, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "For more information on the nominees see: <a href = \"http://oscar.go.com/nominees\" target = \"blank\">Oscar Nominees</a>\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions\r\n<a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/25-which-main-character-will-be-the-first-to-die-in-season-6-of-the-walking-dead\" target = \"_blank\">Which main character will be the first to die in Season 6 of the Walking Dead?</a>\r\n<a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/56-will-winds-of-winter-be-released-before-season-6-of-game-of-thrones-airs\" target = \"_blank\">Will Winds of Winter be released before Season 6 of Game of Thrones airs?</a>", "ends_at": "2016-02-28T07:59:50.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 125, "image": null, "membership_id": 6, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T01:58:47.565+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T01:54:27.328+00:00"}, "name": "Which movie will win the Oscar for Best Picture?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 937, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 491, "published_at": "2016-01-26T18:02:53.952Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-03-01T21:32:47.104Z", "scoring_end_time": "2016-02-27T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-01-26T10:05:50.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-01-26T18:05:50.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.822Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/638 | The Chilean presidential election is scheduled for 19 November 2017, with a run-off scheduled for 17 December 2017 if no candidate wins a majority of the votes in the first round (<a href="http://www.plenglish.com/index.php?o=rn&id=16338&SEO=pinera-leads-polls-to-win-presidential-elections-in-chile" target="_blank">Prensa Latina</a>, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2017-04-20/chile-election-competitive-despite-conservative-gains-poll" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="http://santiagotimes.cl/2017/07/03/pinera-sanchez-dominate-primary-polls-in-chile/" target="_blank">Santiago Times</a>).
Sebastian Pinera won Chile's 2017 presidential election (<a href = "http://latinamericanewsagency.com/politics/sebastian-pinera-triumphs-in-chile-elections--returns-to-presidency_n5585"target="_blank">Latin American News Agency</a>). This question closed as "c) Sebastian Pinera."
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-18T18:00:56.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-03T15:50:12.816Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1320, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Alejandro Guillier", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 175, "predictions_count": 471, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 638, "question_name": "Who will win Chile\u2019s 2017 presidential election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-18T20:39:51.533Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:17.586Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-18T18:00:56.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-03T15:50:12.877Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1321, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Beatriz Sanchez", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 175, "predictions_count": 471, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 638, "question_name": "Who will win Chile\u2019s 2017 presidential election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-18T20:39:45.038Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:18.003Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-18T18:00:56.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-03T15:50:12.904Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1322, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Sebastian Pinera", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 175, "predictions_count": 471, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 638, "question_name": "Who will win Chile\u2019s 2017 presidential election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-18T20:39:35.354Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:18.420Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-18T18:00:56.000Z", "created_at": "2017-10-03T15:50:12.933Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1323, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "None of the above", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 175, "predictions_count": 471, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 638, "question_name": "Who will win Chile\u2019s 2017 presidential election?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-18T20:40:00.319Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:18.704Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 502, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-10-04T16:07:33.296Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 72, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "The Chilean presidential election is scheduled for 19 November 2017, with a run-off scheduled for 17 December 2017 if no candidate wins a majority of the votes in the first round (<a href=\"http://www.plenglish.com/index.php?o=rn&id=16338&SEO=pinera-leads-polls-to-win-presidential-elections-in-chile\" target=\"_blank\">Prensa Latina</a>, <a href=\"https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2017-04-20/chile-election-competitive-despite-conservative-gains-poll\" target=\"_blank\">US News & World Report</a>, <a href=\"http://santiagotimes.cl/2017/07/03/pinera-sanchez-dominate-primary-polls-in-chile/\" target=\"_blank\">Santiago Times</a>). \r\n\r\n\r\nSebastian Pinera won Chile's 2017 presidential election (<a href = \"http://latinamericanewsagency.com/politics/sebastian-pinera-triumphs-in-chile-elections--returns-to-presidency_n5585\"target=\"_blank\">Latin American News Agency</a>). This question closed as \"c) Sebastian Pinera.\"\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>", "ends_at": "2017-12-16T07:59:01.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 638, "image": null, "membership_id": 36637, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:40:04.584+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:38:59.485+00:00"}, "name": "Who will win Chile\u2019s 2017 presidential election?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 471, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 175, "published_at": "2017-10-04T13:24:41.761Z", "resolution_notes": ["http://latinamericanewsagency.com/politics/sebastian-pinera-triumphs-in-chile-elections--returns-to-presidency_n5585", ""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-19T11:20:23.498Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-12-15T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-10-04T09:00:01.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-10-04T16:00:01.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/107 | <img height="1" width="1" style="display:none" src="https://www.facebook.com/tr?id=570990896342688&ev=PageView&noscript=1"/>American firms added 3 million new staff to their payrolls in the past year, and the expectation is that the American labour market will continue to expand (<a href = "http://www.theworldin.com/article/10475" target = "_blank">The World in 2016</a>). The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases two preliminary estimates of total monthly non-farm payroll employment prior to releasing the final estimate (<a href = "http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth" target = "_blank">BLS employment</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 January 2016 and will be closed when the BLS releases its final estimate for January on 1 April 2016. | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-01-31T22:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2016-01-05T17:22:43.776Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 180, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Less than 175,000", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 483, "predictions_count": 911, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 107, "question_name": "How many new jobs will the US economy create in January 2016?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-04-01T18:25:57.702Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:45:44.901Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-01-31T22:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2016-01-05T17:23:23.607Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 181, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Between 175,000 and 225,000, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 483, "predictions_count": 911, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 107, "question_name": "How many new jobs will the US economy create in January 2016?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-04-01T18:26:07.302Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:45:45.783Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-01-31T22:00:09.000Z", "created_at": "2016-01-05T17:24:02.694Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 182, "membership_id": 6, "name": "More than 225,000", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 483, "predictions_count": 911, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 107, "question_name": "How many new jobs will the US economy create in January 2016?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-04-01T18:26:17.067Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:45:47.093Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 981, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "<img height=\"1\" width=\"1\" style=\"display:none\" src=\"https://www.facebook.com/tr?id=570990896342688&ev=PageView&noscript=1\"/>American firms added 3 million new staff to their payrolls in the past year, and the expectation is that the American labour market will continue to expand (<a href = \"http://www.theworldin.com/article/10475\" target = \"_blank\">The World in 2016</a>). The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases two preliminary estimates of total monthly non-farm payroll employment prior to releasing the final estimate (<a href = \"http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth\" target = \"_blank\">BLS employment</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 January 2016 and will be closed when the BLS releases its final estimate for January on 1 April 2016.", "ends_at": "2016-02-01T07:59:13.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 107, "image": null, "membership_id": 6, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T01:54:59.190+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T01:52:19.072+00:00"}, "name": "How many new jobs will the US economy create in January 2016?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 911, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 483, "published_at": "2016-01-05T17:24:49.019Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-04-01T18:26:17.083Z", "scoring_end_time": "2016-01-31T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-01-05T10:00:13.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-01-05T18:00:13.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.836Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/782 | This question will be resolved using the daily closing price of the market of interest reported by <a href = "https://finance.google.com/finance?q=INDEXFTSE:UKX"target="_blank">Google Finance</a>. Question will be suspended the day before the date of interest and resolved the day after the date of interest.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-15T16:30:24.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:59:42.607Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1722, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Less than 7,315", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 47, "predictions_count": 202, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 782, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing price of the UK's FTSE 100 Index (INDEXFTSE: UKX) on 15 December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-22T14:24:44.794Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:56:49.005Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-15T16:30:24.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:59:42.706Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1723, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 7,315 and 7,415, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 47, "predictions_count": 202, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 782, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing price of the UK's FTSE 100 Index (INDEXFTSE: UKX) on 15 December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-22T14:24:40.952Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:56:49.439Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-15T16:30:24.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:59:42.547Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1721, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 7,415 but less than 7,535", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 47, "predictions_count": 202, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 782, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing price of the UK's FTSE 100 Index (INDEXFTSE: UKX) on 15 December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-22T14:24:36.145Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:56:48.097Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-15T16:30:24.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:59:42.423Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1719, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "Between 7,535 and 7,655, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 47, "predictions_count": 202, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 782, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing price of the UK's FTSE 100 Index (INDEXFTSE: UKX) on 15 December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-22T14:24:54.067Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:56:47.046Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-12-15T16:30:24.000Z", "created_at": "2017-11-28T23:59:42.465Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1720, "membership_id": 36637, "name": "More than 7,655", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 47, "predictions_count": 202, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 782, "question_name": "What will be the daily closing price of the UK's FTSE 100 Index (INDEXFTSE: UKX) on 15 December 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-22T14:24:49.084Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:56:47.482Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 202, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-12-09T23:39:06.207Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 5, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "67%", "description": "This question will be resolved using the daily closing price of the market of interest reported by <a href = \"https://finance.google.com/finance?q=INDEXFTSE:UKX\"target=\"_blank\">Google Finance</a>. Question will be suspended the day before the date of interest and resolved the day after the date of interest.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n", "ends_at": "2017-12-15T04:59:27.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 782, "image": null, "membership_id": 36637, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:44:31.571+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:44:03.770+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the daily closing price of the UK's FTSE 100 Index (INDEXFTSE: UKX) on 15 December 2017?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 202, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 47, "published_at": "2017-11-29T15:54:57.712Z", "resolution_notes": ["https://finance.google.com/finance?q=INDEXFTSE:UKX\r\n\r\n7484.05"], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-12-22T14:24:54.125Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-12-14T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-11-29T09:00:00.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-11-29T17:00:00.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/997 | Michael Moore's latest film, Fahrenheit 11/9, is scheduled to be released in theaters on 21 September 2018 (<a href = "http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/la-et-entertainment-news-updates-2018-michael-moore-reveals-first-look-at-1530284503-htmlstory.html"target="_blank">LA Times</a>). The question will resolve using the rank figures on the weekly page provided by <a href = "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekly/"target="_blank">Box Office Mojo</a>. Click on "Sep. 21-27": The ranking is recorded in the "TW" column.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" tawrget="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
This question closed as <a href = "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekly/"target="_blank">"5 or lower"</a> with an end date of 1 October 2018. | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-10-01T20:00:17.000Z", "created_at": "2018-09-07T15:13:36.953Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2238, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "1", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 30, "predictions_count": 59, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 997, "question_name": "Where will the film \"Fahrenheit 11/9\" rank for its first week in theaters?\u000b", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-10-03T16:31:40.912Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:01:07.893Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-10-01T20:00:17.000Z", "created_at": "2018-09-07T15:13:37.078Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2239, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "2", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 30, "predictions_count": 59, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 997, "question_name": "Where will the film \"Fahrenheit 11/9\" rank for its first week in theaters?\u000b", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-10-03T16:31:36.119Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:01:08.543Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-10-01T20:00:17.000Z", "created_at": "2018-09-07T15:13:37.250Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2240, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "3", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 30, "predictions_count": 59, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 997, "question_name": "Where will the film \"Fahrenheit 11/9\" rank for its first week in theaters?\u000b", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-10-03T16:31:30.640Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:01:08.836Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-10-01T20:00:17.000Z", "created_at": "2018-09-07T15:13:37.420Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2241, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "4", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 30, "predictions_count": 59, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 997, "question_name": "Where will the film \"Fahrenheit 11/9\" rank for its first week in theaters?\u000b", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-10-03T16:31:25.307Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:01:09.377Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-10-01T20:00:17.000Z", "created_at": "2018-09-07T15:13:37.484Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2242, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "5 or lower", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 30, "predictions_count": 59, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 997, "question_name": "Where will the film \"Fahrenheit 11/9\" rank for its first week in theaters?\u000b", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-10-03T16:31:20.247Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T22:01:10.010Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 67, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-09-07T19:13:27.777Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 19, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "Michael Moore's latest film, Fahrenheit 11/9, is scheduled to be released in theaters on 21 September 2018 (<a href = \"http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/la-et-entertainment-news-updates-2018-michael-moore-reveals-first-look-at-1530284503-htmlstory.html\"target=\"_blank\">LA Times</a>). The question will resolve using the rank figures on the weekly page provided by <a href = \"https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekly/\"target=\"_blank\">Box Office Mojo</a>. Click on \"Sep. 21-27\": The ranking is recorded in the \"TW\" column.\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" tawrget=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n\r\nThis question closed as <a href = \"https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekly/\"target=\"_blank\">\"5 or lower\"</a> with an end date of 1 October 2018.", "ends_at": "2018-09-27T06:59:18.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 997, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:53:45.356+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:53:28.310+00:00"}, "name": "Where will the film \"Fahrenheit 11/9\" rank for its first week in theaters?\u000b", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 59, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 30, "published_at": "2018-09-07T15:13:37.737Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-10-03T16:31:41.022Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-09-26T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-09-07T10:00:18.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-09-07T17:00:18.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.943Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/804 | The Core CPI is calculated by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and refers to the <a href = "https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category.htm"target="_blank">All items less food and energy</a> category . The question will be suspended on 31 January 2018 and resolved when the data are first released.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed on b) Between 1.6% and 1.8%, inclusive, <a href = "https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/14/us-consumer-price-index-jan-2018.html"target="_blank">CNBC</a>
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-02-14T18:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2017-12-01T16:33:58.357Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1785, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Less than 1.6%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 160, "predictions_count": 335, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 804, "question_name": "What will be the 12-month percentage change in the Core Consumer Price Index for January 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-02-16T14:57:57.833Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:33.686Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-02-14T18:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2017-12-01T16:33:58.379Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1786, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 1.6% and 1.8%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 160, "predictions_count": 335, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 804, "question_name": "What will be the 12-month percentage change in the Core Consumer Price Index for January 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-02-16T14:57:46.822Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:33.855Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-02-14T18:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2017-12-01T16:33:58.404Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1787, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 1.8% but less than 2.0%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 160, "predictions_count": 335, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 804, "question_name": "What will be the 12-month percentage change in the Core Consumer Price Index for January 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-02-16T14:57:50.749Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:33.999Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-02-14T18:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2017-12-01T16:33:58.428Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1788, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Between 2.0% and 2.2%, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 160, "predictions_count": 335, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 804, "question_name": "What will be the 12-month percentage change in the Core Consumer Price Index for January 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-02-16T14:57:54.346Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:34.211Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-02-14T18:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2017-12-01T16:33:58.453Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1789, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "More than 2.2%", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 160, "predictions_count": 335, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 804, "question_name": "What will be the 12-month percentage change in the Core Consumer Price Index for January 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-02-16T14:58:01.999Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:57:34.407Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 363, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-01-14T14:10:47.771Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 18, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "71%", "description": "The Core CPI is calculated by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and refers to the <a href = \"https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category.htm\"target=\"_blank\">All items less food and energy</a> category . The question will be suspended on 31 January 2018 and resolved when the data are first released. \r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n\r\nThis question closed on b) Between 1.6% and 1.8%, inclusive, <a href = \"https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/14/us-consumer-price-index-jan-2018.html\"target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-02-02T07:59:50.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 804, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:45:58.597+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:44:53.132+00:00"}, "name": "What will be the 12-month percentage change in the Core Consumer Price Index for January 2018?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 335, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 160, "published_at": "2017-12-01T16:33:58.521Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-02-16T14:58:02.016Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-02-01T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-12-01T10:00:50.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-12-01T18:00:50.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.894Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/77 | This question was closed with the answer "No" on 3 August 2016 with an end date of 31 July 2016. Scores are based on forecasts made through 11:59pm Pacific in 30 July 2016.
Article 4 was invoked by Turkey in 2015 in response to developments in Syria and by Poland in 2014 in response to developments in Ukraine (<a href = "http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2015/07/economist-explains-21" target = "_blank"><i>The Economist</i></a>, <a href = "http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_107711.htm" target = "_blank">NATO</a>). Article 5 was invoked after the September 11 attacks in 2001 (<a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/2001/09/13/us/after-attacks-alliance-for-first-time-nato-invokes-joint-defense-pact-with-us.html" target = "_blank">NY Times</a>). For more information on Article 4 and Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, see <a href = "http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49187.htm" target = "_blank">NATO 1</a> and <a href = "http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm" target = "_blank">NATO 2</a>.
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<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/70-will-any-nato-member-invoke-article-4-in-response-to-actions-taken-by-russia-before-1-january-2017" target = "_blank">Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 in response to actions taken by Russia before 1 January 2017?</a>
<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/96-before-april-2016-will-the-french-army-or-foreign-legion-deploy-combat-troops-to-fight-the-islamic-state-on-the-ground-in-syria-or-iraq" target = "_blank">Before April 2016, will the French Army or Foreign Legion deploy combat troops to fight the Islamic State on the ground in Syria or Iraq?</a> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-07-31T21:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2015-11-17T17:30:20.156Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 122, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Yes, only Article 4", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 406, "predictions_count": 1481, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 77, "question_name": "Before 1 August 2016, will any NATO members invoke Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by ISIS?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-08-03T19:51:42.477Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:44:56.886Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-07-31T21:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2015-11-17T17:30:44.393Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 123, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Yes, only Article 5", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 406, "predictions_count": 1481, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 77, "question_name": "Before 1 August 2016, will any NATO members invoke Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by ISIS?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-08-03T19:51:57.591Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:44:58.470Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-07-31T21:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2015-11-17T17:32:13.987Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 124, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 406, "predictions_count": 1481, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 77, "question_name": "Before 1 August 2016, will any NATO members invoke Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by ISIS?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-08-03T19:52:10.566Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:44:59.284Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-07-31T21:00:11.000Z", "created_at": "2015-11-17T17:32:33.323Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 125, "membership_id": 6, "name": "No", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 406, "predictions_count": 1481, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 77, "question_name": "Before 1 August 2016, will any NATO members invoke Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by ISIS?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-08-03T19:52:22.848Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:45:00.199Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1537, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2015-11-17T19:42:54.242Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 257, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "This question was closed with the answer \"No\" on 3 August 2016 with an end date of 31 July 2016. Scores are based on forecasts made through 11:59pm Pacific in 30 July 2016.\r\n\r\nArticle 4 was invoked by Turkey in 2015 in response to developments in Syria and by Poland in 2014 in response to developments in Ukraine (<a href = \"http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2015/07/economist-explains-21\" target = \"_blank\"><i>The Economist</i></a>, <a href = \"http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_107711.htm\" target = \"_blank\">NATO</a>). Article 5 was invoked after the September 11 attacks in 2001 (<a href = \"http://www.nytimes.com/2001/09/13/us/after-attacks-alliance-for-first-time-nato-invokes-joint-defense-pact-with-us.html\" target = \"_blank\">NY Times</a>). For more information on Article 4 and Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, see <a href = \"http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49187.htm\" target = \"_blank\">NATO 1</a> and <a href = \"http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm\" target = \"_blank\">NATO 2</a>.\r\n\r\nRecommended Questions\r\n<a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/70-will-any-nato-member-invoke-article-4-in-response-to-actions-taken-by-russia-before-1-january-2017\" target = \"_blank\">Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 in response to actions taken by Russia before 1 January 2017?</a>\r\n<a href = \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/96-before-april-2016-will-the-french-army-or-foreign-legion-deploy-combat-troops-to-fight-the-islamic-state-on-the-ground-in-syria-or-iraq\" target = \"_blank\">Before April 2016, will the French Army or Foreign Legion deploy combat troops to fight the Islamic State on the ground in Syria or Iraq?</a>", "ends_at": "2016-08-01T06:59:46.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 77, "image": null, "membership_id": 6, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T01:52:49.926+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T01:49:21.721+00:00"}, "name": "Before 1 August 2016, will any NATO members invoke Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by ISIS?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1481, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 406, "published_at": "2015-11-17T17:33:26.822Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-08-03T19:52:22.856Z", "scoring_end_time": "2016-07-31T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2015-11-17T10:00:46.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2015-11-17T18:00:46.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.827Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/553 | The Virginia gubernatorial race will take place on 7 November 2017. The campaign has drawn national attention and money, with both Democrats and Republicans viewing the contest as a referendum on President Trump (<a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/national-money-pours-into-virginia-governors-race/2017/07/25/7e6df1a0-7154-11e7-8839-ec48ec4cae25_story.html"target="_blank">The Washington Post</a>, <a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/poll-dead-heat-in-virginia-governors-race-gillespie-outperforming-trump/2017/07/24/ae29aa68-7089-11e7-8f39-eeb7d3a2d304_story.html?utm_term=.5cc739645c75&tid=a_inl"target="_blank">The Washington Post</a>, <a href = "http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/343467-poll-va-governors-race-in-dead-heat"target="_blank">The Hill</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
Ralph Northam (Democrat) won Virgina's gubernatorial race by a margin greater than 5%
(<a href = "https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/governor/va/virginia_governor_gillespie_vs_northam-6197.html"target="_blank">Real Clear Politics</a>). This question closed as "a) Ralph Northam (Democrat) by a margin greater than 5%," with an end date of 8 November 2017.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-08T07:59:21.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-11T16:29:59.482Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1120, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Ralph Northam (Democrat) by a margin greater than 5%", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 299, "predictions_count": 658, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 553, "question_name": "Who will be elected governor of Virginia in November 2017? \r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-17T22:39:37.268Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:46.630Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-08T07:59:21.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-11T16:29:59.504Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1121, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Ralph Northam (Democrat) by a margin of 5% or less ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 299, "predictions_count": 658, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 553, "question_name": "Who will be elected governor of Virginia in November 2017? \r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-17T22:39:58.023Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:47.417Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-08T07:59:21.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-11T16:29:59.518Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1122, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Ed Gillespie (Republican) by a margin of 5% or less ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 299, "predictions_count": 658, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 553, "question_name": "Who will be elected governor of Virginia in November 2017? \r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-17T22:39:19.034Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:48.072Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-08T18:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-11T16:29:59.532Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1123, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Ed Gillespie (Republican) by a margin greater than 5% ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 299, "predictions_count": 658, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 553, "question_name": "Who will be elected governor of Virginia in November 2017? \r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-16T14:32:57.656Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:48.619Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-08T18:00:21.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-11T16:29:59.545Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1124, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "None of the above", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 299, "predictions_count": 658, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 553, "question_name": "Who will be elected governor of Virginia in November 2017? \r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-16T14:32:50.875Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:49.227Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 684, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "The Virginia gubernatorial race will take place on 7 November 2017. The campaign has drawn national attention and money, with both Democrats and Republicans viewing the contest as a referendum on President Trump (<a href = \"https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/national-money-pours-into-virginia-governors-race/2017/07/25/7e6df1a0-7154-11e7-8839-ec48ec4cae25_story.html\"target=\"_blank\">The Washington Post</a>, <a href = \"https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/poll-dead-heat-in-virginia-governors-race-gillespie-outperforming-trump/2017/07/24/ae29aa68-7089-11e7-8f39-eeb7d3a2d304_story.html?utm_term=.5cc739645c75&tid=a_inl\"target=\"_blank\">The Washington Post</a>, <a href = \"http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/343467-poll-va-governors-race-in-dead-heat\"target=\"_blank\">The Hill</a>).\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nRalph Northam (Democrat) won Virgina's gubernatorial race by a margin greater than 5% \r\n(<a href = \"https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/governor/va/virginia_governor_gillespie_vs_northam-6197.html\"target=\"_blank\">Real Clear Politics</a>). This question closed as \"a) Ralph Northam (Democrat) by a margin greater than 5%,\" with an end date of 8 November 2017.\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n", "ends_at": "2017-11-08T07:59:51.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 553, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:36:26.080+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:34:16.495+00:00"}, "name": "Who will be elected governor of Virginia in November 2017? \r\n", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 658, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 299, "published_at": "2017-08-11T16:29:59.635Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-01-17T22:39:58.066Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-11-07T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-08-11T10:00:51.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-08-11T17:00:51.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.906Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/360 | In response to more than a year of protests, Ethiopia declared a six-month nationwide state of emergency on 8 October 2016 (<a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/10/ethiopia-declares-state-emergency-protests-161009110506730.html" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, try forecasting on <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/129" target="_blank">whether there will be a new episode of mass killing in Ethiopia before the end of the year</a> or on <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/292" target="_blank">the next state to experience anti-government mass protests in the Arab world</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question was closed as "yes, nationwide" with an end date of 1 May 2017. In March 2017, the Ethiopian Parliament extended the nationwide state of emergency by 4 months (<a href = "http://www.africanews.com/2017/03/30/ethiopia-extends-state-of-emergency-after-relaxing-restrictions//"target="_blank">Africa News</a>, <a href = "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/03/ethiopia-extends-state-emergency-months-170330110807086.html"target="_blank">Aljazeera</a>, <a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/despite-outward-calm-ethiopia-extends-state-of-emergency/2017/03/30/b5544098-1529-11e7-ada0-1489b735b3a3_story.html?utm_term=.69873b1191e2"target="_blank">Washington Post</a> ).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-05-01T17:00:46.000Z", "created_at": "2016-12-06T16:48:44.190Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 670, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Yes, nationwide", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 214, "predictions_count": 558, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 360, "question_name": "Will Ethiopia be under a state of emergency as of 1 May 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-05-02T14:32:43.863Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:38.972Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-05-01T17:00:46.000Z", "created_at": "2016-12-06T16:48:44.237Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 671, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Yes, but only in some areas", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 214, "predictions_count": 558, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 360, "question_name": "Will Ethiopia be under a state of emergency as of 1 May 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-05-02T14:30:57.463Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:39.204Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-05-01T17:00:46.000Z", "created_at": "2016-12-06T16:48:44.275Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 672, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "No", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 214, "predictions_count": 558, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 360, "question_name": "Will Ethiopia be under a state of emergency as of 1 May 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-05-02T14:31:47.404Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:49:39.535Z"}], "answers_count": 3, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 575, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2016-12-28T04:04:17.029Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 124, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "14%", "description": "In response to more than a year of protests, Ethiopia declared a six-month nationwide state of emergency on 8 October 2016 (<a href=\"http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/10/ethiopia-declares-state-emergency-protests-161009110506730.html\" target=\"_blank\">Al Jazeera</a>).\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n<sub>If you liked this question, try forecasting on <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/129\" target=\"_blank\">whether there will be a new episode of mass killing in Ethiopia before the end of the year</a> or on <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/292\" target=\"_blank\">the next state to experience anti-government mass protests in the Arab world</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nThis question was closed as \"yes, nationwide\" with an end date of 1 May 2017. In March 2017, the Ethiopian Parliament extended the nationwide state of emergency by 4 months (<a href = \"http://www.africanews.com/2017/03/30/ethiopia-extends-state-of-emergency-after-relaxing-restrictions//\"target=\"_blank\">Africa News</a>, <a href = \"http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/03/ethiopia-extends-state-emergency-months-170330110807086.html\"target=\"_blank\">Aljazeera</a>, <a href = \"https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/despite-outward-calm-ethiopia-extends-state-of-emergency/2017/03/30/b5544098-1529-11e7-ada0-1489b735b3a3_story.html?utm_term=.69873b1191e2\"target=\"_blank\">Washington Post</a> ). \r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n<hr>", "ends_at": "2017-05-01T06:59:49.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 360, "image": null, "membership_id": 27345, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:20:41.699+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:16:53.877+00:00"}, "name": "Will Ethiopia be under a state of emergency as of 1 May 2017?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 558, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 214, "published_at": "2016-12-06T16:48:44.429Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-05-02T14:32:43.898Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-04-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2016-12-06T10:00:49.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2016-12-06T18:00:49.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.869Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/947 | The Trump administration has seen turnover increasing for its top officials (<a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2018/03/22/this-is-what-the-high-turnover-white-house-looks-like/"target="_blank">The Washington Post</a>). Cabinet-level positions refer to the Vice President, the White House Chief of Staff, the 15 Cabinet members (Secretaries of Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing and Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury, and Veterans Affairs, and the Attorney General), and 7 other cabinet-level officials (the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, the Director of the Office of Management and Budget, the United States Trade Representative, the Representative of the United States to the United Nations, the Administrator of the Small Business Administration, the Director of National Intelligence, and the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency). Cabinet members who cease to hold a cabinet-level position to take another cabinet-level position will not count for the resolution of this question.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as "0 (zero)" with an end date of 29 June 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-29T17:00:17.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-09T16:20:17.700Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2098, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "0", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 87, "predictions_count": 248, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 947, "question_name": "Between 9 May 2018 and 29 June 2018, how many Cabinet-level officials in the Trump Administration will cease to hold a cabinet-level position?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-03T19:02:27.682Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:47.523Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-29T17:00:17.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-09T16:20:17.803Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2099, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "1", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 87, "predictions_count": 248, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 947, "question_name": "Between 9 May 2018 and 29 June 2018, how many Cabinet-level officials in the Trump Administration will cease to hold a cabinet-level position?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-03T19:02:05.386Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:47.861Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-29T17:00:17.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-09T16:20:17.891Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2100, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "2", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 87, "predictions_count": 248, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 947, "question_name": "Between 9 May 2018 and 29 June 2018, how many Cabinet-level officials in the Trump Administration will cease to hold a cabinet-level position?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-03T19:01:43.484Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:48.217Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-29T17:00:17.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-09T16:20:18.070Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2101, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "3", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 87, "predictions_count": 248, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 947, "question_name": "Between 9 May 2018 and 29 June 2018, how many Cabinet-level officials in the Trump Administration will cease to hold a cabinet-level position?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-03T19:01:22.632Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:48.680Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-06-29T17:00:17.000Z", "created_at": "2018-05-09T16:20:18.151Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 2102, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "4 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 87, "predictions_count": 248, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 947, "question_name": "Between 9 May 2018 and 29 June 2018, how many Cabinet-level officials in the Trump Administration will cease to hold a cabinet-level position?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-03T19:01:00.906Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:59:49.091Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 266, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-05-26T12:56:22.848Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 33, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "34%", "description": "The Trump administration has seen turnover increasing for its top officials (<a href = \"https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2018/03/22/this-is-what-the-high-turnover-white-house-looks-like/\"target=\"_blank\">The Washington Post</a>). Cabinet-level positions refer to the Vice President, the White House Chief of Staff, the 15 Cabinet members (Secretaries of Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing and Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury, and Veterans Affairs, and the Attorney General), and 7 other cabinet-level officials (the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, the Director of the Office of Management and Budget, the United States Trade Representative, the Representative of the United States to the United Nations, the Administrator of the Small Business Administration, the Director of National Intelligence, and the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency). Cabinet members who cease to hold a cabinet-level position to take another cabinet-level position will not count for the resolution of this question.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nThis question closed as \"0 (zero)\" with an end date of 29 June 2018. \r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-06-29T06:59:13.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 947, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:52:30.315+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:51:28.107+00:00"}, "name": "Between 9 May 2018 and 29 June 2018, how many Cabinet-level officials in the Trump Administration will cease to hold a cabinet-level position?\r\n", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 248, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 87, "published_at": "2018-05-09T16:20:18.350Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-03T19:02:27.798Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-06-28T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2018-05-09T10:00:13.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2018-05-09T17:00:13.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.906Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/71 | Examples of previous launches include the October 2015 and February 2014 missile tests ( http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/16/us-iran-missiles-usa-idUSKCN0SA20Z20151016 , http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/02/10/iran-missile-test_n_4762251.html ). For more information on ballistic missiles see https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/missiles. UN Security Council Resolution 1929 bans Iran from testing ballistic missiles and will be lifted once the nuclear deal has been implemented (http://www.cfr.org/iran/un-security-council-resolution-1929-iran/p22433 ). | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2015-11-21T14:00:07.000Z", "created_at": "2015-11-03T18:45:20.642Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 112, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Before 1 March 2016", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 197, "predictions_count": 412, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 71, "question_name": "When will Iran next launch a ballistic missile?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2015-12-11T20:34:28.592Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:44:45.747Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2015-11-21T14:00:07.000Z", "created_at": "2015-11-03T18:45:56.752Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 113, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Between 1 March and 30 April 2016, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 197, "predictions_count": 412, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 71, "question_name": "When will Iran next launch a ballistic missile?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2015-12-11T20:34:28.592Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:44:47.126Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2015-11-21T14:00:07.000Z", "created_at": "2015-11-03T18:46:31.776Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 114, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Between 1 May and 30 June 2016, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 197, "predictions_count": 412, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 71, "question_name": "When will Iran next launch a ballistic missile?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2015-12-11T20:34:28.592Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:44:48.470Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2015-11-21T14:00:07.000Z", "created_at": "2015-11-03T18:47:36.756Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 115, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Not before 1 July 2016", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 197, "predictions_count": 412, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 71, "question_name": "When will Iran next launch a ballistic missile?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2015-12-11T20:34:28.592Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:44:49.563Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 446, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": null, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": null, "description": "Examples of previous launches include the October 2015 and February 2014 missile tests ( http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/16/us-iran-missiles-usa-idUSKCN0SA20Z20151016 , http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/02/10/iran-missile-test_n_4762251.html ). For more information on ballistic missiles see https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/missiles. UN Security Council Resolution 1929 bans Iran from testing ballistic missiles and will be lifted once the nuclear deal has been implemented (http://www.cfr.org/iran/un-security-council-resolution-1929-iran/p22433 ).", "ends_at": "2016-07-01T06:59:59.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 71, "image": null, "membership_id": 6, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T01:49:55.254+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T01:48:32.283+00:00"}, "name": "When will Iran next launch a ballistic missile?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 412, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 197, "published_at": "2015-11-03T18:49:25.828Z", "resolution_notes": {}, "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2015-12-11T20:34:28.615Z", "scoring_end_time": "2015-11-21T00:00:00.000-08:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2015-11-03T12:00:59.000-08:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2015-11-03T20:00:59.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.827Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/504 | All fatalities resulting from the fighting, including civilians and third party actors will count. The once “frozen” conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenian separatists in Nagorno-Karabakh has shown signs of escalation (<a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/armenia-azerbaijan-conflict-idUSL8N1IY402"target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/05/nagorno-karabakh-azerbaijan-hits-armenian-air-defence-170516104753249.html"target="_blank">Aljazeera</a>, <a href = "http://www.cfr.org/regional-security/renewed-conflict-over-nagorno-karabakh/p38843"target="_blank">Council on Foreign Relations</a>). The answer options represent different orders of magnitude of conflict escalation. Fatality estimates often vary across sources and are typically reported in ranges. If the fatality estimates from open source media coverage produce a range that crosses two of the answer bins, GJ will generally use the higher end of the range to determine the resolution of the question, but will also consider the number of sources that put the high end of the range within each bin as well as how much of the total range falls within each bin.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as "10-99" with an end date of 1 July 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-01T17:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2017-06-20T15:47:26.115Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1002, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "Fewer than 10 ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 152, "predictions_count": 753, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 504, "question_name": "How many fatalities will result from fighting between the armed forces of Azerbaijan and either the Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Army or the armed forces of Armenia between 20 June 2017 and 1 July 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-02T22:57:06.233Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:48.087Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-01T17:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2017-06-20T15:47:26.126Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1003, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "10-99 ", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 152, "predictions_count": 753, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 504, "question_name": "How many fatalities will result from fighting between the armed forces of Azerbaijan and either the Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Army or the armed forces of Armenia between 20 June 2017 and 1 July 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-02T22:55:23.945Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:48.328Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-01T17:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2017-06-20T15:47:26.138Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1004, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "100-999 ", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 152, "predictions_count": 753, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 504, "question_name": "How many fatalities will result from fighting between the armed forces of Azerbaijan and either the Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Army or the armed forces of Armenia between 20 June 2017 and 1 July 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-02T22:58:00.432Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:48.606Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-07-01T17:00:05.000Z", "created_at": "2017-06-20T15:47:26.149Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1005, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "1,000 or more", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 152, "predictions_count": 753, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 504, "question_name": "How many fatalities will result from fighting between the armed forces of Azerbaijan and either the Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Army or the armed forces of Armenia between 20 June 2017 and 1 July 2018?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-02T22:56:12.540Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:51:49.335Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 764, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-06-21T13:43:09.357Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 373, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "0%", "description": "All fatalities resulting from the fighting, including civilians and third party actors will count. The once \u201cfrozen\u201d conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenian separatists in Nagorno-Karabakh has shown signs of escalation (<a href = \"http://www.reuters.com/article/armenia-azerbaijan-conflict-idUSL8N1IY402\"target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>, <a href = \"http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/05/nagorno-karabakh-azerbaijan-hits-armenian-air-defence-170516104753249.html\"target=\"_blank\">Aljazeera</a>, <a href = \"http://www.cfr.org/regional-security/renewed-conflict-over-nagorno-karabakh/p38843\"target=\"_blank\">Council on Foreign Relations</a>). The answer options represent different orders of magnitude of conflict escalation. Fatality estimates often vary across sources and are typically reported in ranges. If the fatality estimates from open source media coverage produce a range that crosses two of the answer bins, GJ will generally use the higher end of the range to determine the resolution of the question, but will also consider the number of sources that put the high end of the range within each bin as well as how much of the total range falls within each bin.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\nThis question closed as \"10-99\" with an end date of 1 July 2018. \r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n\r\n", "ends_at": "2018-06-30T06:59:01.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 504, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:32:52.273+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:31:28.122+00:00"}, "name": "How many fatalities will result from fighting between the armed forces of Azerbaijan and either the Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Army or the armed forces of Armenia between 20 June 2017 and 1 July 2018?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 753, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 152, "published_at": "2017-06-20T15:47:26.229Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-07-02T22:58:00.566Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-06-29T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-06-20T10:00:01.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-06-20T17:00:01.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.949Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/550 | Recent macroeconomic developments have raised concerns regarding the debt profile of several GCC countries (<a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-bahrain-ratings-fitch-idUSKCN0ZE1SG"target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/brief-moodys-downgrades-oman-to-baa-idUSFWN1KJ18G"target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/oman-ratings-sp-idUSL8N1IE77N"target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "http://gulfnews.com/news/gulf/qatar/s-p-downgrades-qatar-s-credit-rating-1.2040276"target="_blank">Gulf News</a>, <a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-22/saudi-arabia-rating-cut-by-fitch-on-worsening-public-finances"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman each had their long term issuer rating downgraded. This question closed as "3" with an end date of 7 August 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-08-07T17:00:12.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-08T15:22:36.930Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1109, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "0", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 246, "predictions_count": 974, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 550, "question_name": "Between 8 August 2017 and 7 August 2018, how many governments, from among Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, will have their long term issuer rating downgraded by S&P, Moody's, or Fitch?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-08-08T14:59:47.760Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:40.567Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-08-07T17:00:12.000Z", "created_at": 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"2", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 246, "predictions_count": 974, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 550, "question_name": "Between 8 August 2017 and 7 August 2018, how many governments, from among Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, will have their long term issuer rating downgraded by S&P, Moody's, or Fitch?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-08-08T15:00:27.850Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:41.936Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-08-07T17:00:12.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-08T15:22:37.031Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1112, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "3", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 246, "predictions_count": 974, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 550, "question_name": "Between 8 August 2017 and 7 August 2018, how many governments, from among Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, will have their long term issuer rating downgraded by S&P, Moody's, or Fitch?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-08-08T15:00:47.946Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:42.665Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2018-08-07T17:00:12.000Z", "created_at": "2017-08-08T15:22:37.056Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1113, "membership_id": 29512, "name": "4", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 246, "predictions_count": 974, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 550, "question_name": "Between 8 August 2017 and 7 August 2018, how many governments, from among Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, will have their long term issuer rating downgraded by S&P, Moody's, or Fitch?\r\n", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-08-08T15:01:08.814Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:52:43.398Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 994, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2018-01-15T01:26:23.201Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 204, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "44%", "description": "Recent macroeconomic developments have raised concerns regarding the debt profile of several GCC countries (<a href = \"http://www.reuters.com/article/us-bahrain-ratings-fitch-idUSKCN0ZE1SG\"target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>, <a href = \"http://www.reuters.com/article/brief-moodys-downgrades-oman-to-baa-idUSFWN1KJ18G\"target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>, <a href = \"http://www.reuters.com/article/oman-ratings-sp-idUSL8N1IE77N\"target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>, <a href = \"http://gulfnews.com/news/gulf/qatar/s-p-downgrades-qatar-s-credit-rating-1.2040276\"target=\"_blank\">Gulf News</a>, <a href = \"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-22/saudi-arabia-rating-cut-by-fitch-on-worsening-public-finances\"target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>).\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>\r\n\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n\r\nBahrain, Qatar, and Oman each had their long term issuer rating downgraded. This question closed as \"3\" with an end date of 7 August 2018. \r\n\r\n<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4\" target=\"_blank\">how scores are calculated</a>. \r\n", "ends_at": "2018-08-07T06:59:26.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 550, "image": null, "membership_id": 29512, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:36:24.022+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:34:02.961+00:00"}, "name": "Between 8 August 2017 and 7 August 2018, how many governments, from among Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, will have their long term issuer rating downgraded by S&P, Moody's, or Fitch?\r\n", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 974, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 246, "published_at": "2017-08-08T15:22:37.224Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2018-08-08T15:01:08.842Z", "scoring_end_time": "2018-08-06T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-08-08T10:00:26.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-08-08T17:00:26.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.949Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/53 | The anti-austerity leftist party, Podemos, and the reform minded centrist party, Cuidadanos, are hoping to capitalize on the steady erosion of support for Spain's primary political parties, Partido Popular (PP) and Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) (<a href = "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-09/ciudadanos-leader-albert-rivera-poised-to-rock-spain-s-election" target = "_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href = "http://www.econotimes.com/Spanish-general-election-Expect-a-minority-government-90781 target = "_blank">EconoTimes</a>, <a href = "http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/10/after-greece-spain-and-portugal-face-risky-elections.html" target = "_blank">CNBC</a>). Elections are expected to be held on or before 20 December 2015.
Updated on 2/22/16: The question on Spain's election has been reopened for forecasting as the parties are still working to put together a governing coalition. The end date will continue to be extended until a new governing coalition is formed or new elections are scheduled.
Updated on 4/8/16: The question has been reopened. Negotiations on a power-sharing agreement are ongoing, and a new deadline of May 2nd has been set (<a href="https://au.news.yahoo.com/world/a/31298202/podemos-joins-three-way-coalition-talks-as-clock-ticks-in-spain/" target="_blank">Agence France-Presse via Yahoo!</a>). The question will be suspended at 11:59pm Pacific on May 3rd in the absence of a new governing coalition, the scheduling of elections, or an extension of the negotiation deadline. | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-05-03T19:00:48.000Z", "created_at": "2015-10-05T12:50:20.740Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 87, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Podemos", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 261, "predictions_count": 1673, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 53, "question_name": "Will either of the following parties be part of the ruling coalition after Spain's upcoming elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-05-03T19:59:22.870Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:44:31.720Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-05-03T19:00:48.000Z", "created_at": "2015-10-05T12:50:43.822Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 88, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Ciudadanos", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 261, "predictions_count": 1673, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 53, "question_name": "Will either of the following parties be part of the ruling coalition after Spain's upcoming elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-05-03T19:59:39.384Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:44:32.633Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-05-03T19:00:48.000Z", "created_at": "2015-10-05T12:51:00.577Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 89, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Both", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 261, "predictions_count": 1673, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 53, "question_name": "Will either of the following parties be part of the ruling coalition after Spain's upcoming elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-05-03T19:59:55.444Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:44:33.821Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2016-05-03T19:00:48.000Z", "created_at": "2015-10-05T12:51:25.053Z", "description": "", "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 90, "membership_id": 6, "name": "Neither", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 261, "predictions_count": 1673, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 53, "question_name": "Will either of the following parties be part of the ruling coalition after Spain's upcoming elections?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-05-03T20:00:11.193Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:44:34.125Z"}], "answers_count": 4, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 1866, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2016-01-02T01:14:24.473Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 123, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "42%", "description": "The anti-austerity leftist party, Podemos, and the reform minded centrist party, Cuidadanos, are hoping to capitalize on the steady erosion of support for Spain's primary political parties, Partido Popular (PP) and Partido Socialista Obrero Espa\u00f1ol (PSOE) (<a href = \"http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-09/ciudadanos-leader-albert-rivera-poised-to-rock-spain-s-election\" target = \"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>, <a href = \"http://www.econotimes.com/Spanish-general-election-Expect-a-minority-government-90781 target = \"_blank\">EconoTimes</a>, <a href = \"http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/10/after-greece-spain-and-portugal-face-risky-elections.html\" target = \"_blank\">CNBC</a>). Elections are expected to be held on or before 20 December 2015.\r\n\r\nUpdated on 2/22/16: The question on Spain's election has been reopened for forecasting as the parties are still working to put together a governing coalition. The end date will continue to be extended until a new governing coalition is formed or new elections are scheduled.\r\n\r\nUpdated on 4/8/16: The question has been reopened. Negotiations on a power-sharing agreement are ongoing, and a new deadline of May 2nd has been set (<a href=\"https://au.news.yahoo.com/world/a/31298202/podemos-joins-three-way-coalition-talks-as-clock-ticks-in-spain/\" target=\"_blank\">Agence France-Presse via Yahoo!</a>). The question will be suspended at 11:59pm Pacific on May 3rd in the absence of a new governing coalition, the scheduling of elections, or an extension of the negotiation deadline.", "ends_at": "2016-05-04T06:59:45.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 53, "image": null, "membership_id": 6, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T01:51:48.654+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T01:47:19.516+00:00"}, "name": "Will either of the following parties be part of the ruling coalition after Spain's upcoming elections?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 1673, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 261, "published_at": "2015-10-05T12:52:29.530Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2016-05-03T20:00:11.205Z", "scoring_end_time": "2016-05-03T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2015-10-05T13:00:45.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2015-10-05T20:00:45.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2021-09-16T01:51:48.677Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": false, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/601 | This question will be resolved using the daily rate reported by <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXNOUS" target="_blank">Federal Reserve Economic Data</a> (FRED) for the date of interest. Question will be suspended the day before the date of interest and resolved when the data is released, usually on Monday of the following week.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub> | None | {"active?": false, "answers": [{"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-01T06:59:14.000Z", "created_at": "2017-09-13T14:54:34.826Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1258, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Less than 7.58", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 171, "predictions_count": 677, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 601, "question_name": "What will the Norwegian Kroner to one U.S. Dollar daily exchange rate be on 31 October 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-09T16:24:19.902Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 0, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:53:59.468Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-01T06:59:14.000Z", "created_at": "2017-09-13T14:54:34.851Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1259, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Between 7.58 and 7.72, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 171, "predictions_count": 677, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 601, "question_name": "What will the Norwegian Kroner to one U.S. Dollar daily exchange rate be on 31 October 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-09T16:24:35.082Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 1, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:00.423Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-01T06:59:14.000Z", "created_at": "2017-09-13T14:54:34.870Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1260, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "More than 7.72 but less than 7.83", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 171, "predictions_count": 677, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 601, "question_name": "What will the Norwegian Kroner to one U.S. Dollar daily exchange rate be on 31 October 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-09T16:24:42.616Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 2, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:01.290Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-01T06:59:14.000Z", "created_at": "2017-09-13T14:54:34.902Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "0%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1261, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "Between 7.83 and 7.97, inclusive", "normalized_probability": 0.0, "positions_count": 171, "predictions_count": 677, "probability": 0.0, "probability_formatted": "0%", "question_id": 601, "question_name": "What will the Norwegian Kroner to one U.S. Dollar daily exchange rate be on 31 October 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-09T16:24:12.257Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 3, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:02.007Z"}, {"active?": false, "binary?": false, "correctness_known_at": "2017-11-01T06:59:14.000Z", "created_at": "2017-09-13T14:54:34.935Z", "description": null, "display_probability": "100%", "ended?": true, "ends_at": null, "id": 1262, "membership_id": 27345, "name": "More than 7.97", "normalized_probability": 1.0, "positions_count": 171, "predictions_count": 677, "probability": 1.0, "probability_formatted": "100%", "question_id": 601, "question_name": "What will the Norwegian Kroner to one U.S. Dollar daily exchange rate be on 31 October 2017?", "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-09T16:24:26.546Z", "resolved_by_id": null, "resolving?": false, "sort_order": 4, "status": null, "type": "Forecast::Answer", "updated_at": "2020-12-01T21:54:03.141Z"}], "answers_count": 5, "binary?": false, "brier_score": "0.0", "clarifications": {}, "comments_count": 691, "continuous_scored?": false, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_answer_at": "2017-10-25T07:17:37.960Z", "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_days_before_close": 5, "correct_answer_became_highest_probability_percentage_of_question": "89%", "description": "This question will be resolved using the daily rate reported by <a href=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXNOUS\" target=\"_blank\">Federal Reserve Economic Data</a> (FRED) for the date of interest. Question will be suspended the day before the date of interest and resolved when the data is released, usually on Monday of the following week.\r\n\r\n<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=\"https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question\" target=\"_blank\">FAQ</a> or <a href=\"mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification\" target=\"_blank\">ask us for help</a>.</sub>", "ends_at": "2017-10-31T06:59:27.000Z", "exclusive?": true, "external_id": null, "external_source": null, "featured": false, "id": 601, "image": null, "membership_id": 27345, "metadata": {"normalize_probability_history_completed_at": "2021-09-16T02:39:10.275+00:00", "normalize_probability_history_started_at": "2021-09-16T02:37:33.149+00:00"}, "name": "What will the Norwegian Kroner to one U.S. Dollar daily exchange rate be on 31 October 2017?", "number_bins": "disabled", "post_forecast_survey_id": null, "prediction_sets_count": 677, "predictions_must_sum_to_100?": true, "predictors_count": 171, "published_at": "2017-09-13T14:54:35.240Z", "resolution_notes": [""], "resolved?": true, "resolved_at": "2017-11-09T16:24:42.637Z", "scoring_end_time": "2017-10-30T00:00:00.000-07:00", "scoring_period_end": null, "scoring_period_start": null, "scoring_start_time": "2017-09-13T09:00:27.000-07:00", "seasons": {}, "site_id": 1, "starts_at": "2017-09-13T16:00:27.000Z", "state": "resolved", "type": "Forecast::Question", "updated_at": "2022-08-19T13:15:51.916Z", "use_ordinal_scoring": true, "void_reason": null, "voided_at": null} | None | None | None | multiple_choice | None | gjopen | 0.0 |