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False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2851 | <p>Former President Trump has registered to run for reelection in 2024, though he faces several legal obstacles in the near term (<a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/03/08/1160113954/2024-republican-presidential-candidates-who-is-running-tracker" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-61084161" target="_blank">BBC</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Will Donald Trump be reelected as president of the US in 2024? | 2023-04-13 | [["2023-04-13", 0.1467], ["2023-04-13", 0.0933], ["2023-04-13", 0.1044], ["2023-04-13", 0.0882], ["2023-04-13", 0.1407], ["2023-04-14", 0.1494], ["2023-04-14", 0.1435], ["2023-04-14", 0.1459], ["2023-04-14", 0.132], ["2023-04-14", 0.1321], ["2023-04-14", 0.1368], ["2023-04-15", 0.1316], 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"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/us/politics/biden-trump-2024-poll.html", "https://www.270towin.com/road-to-270-combinations/?mapstr=42201111140142122221130322262251301421012224231102216452&year=2024", "https://www.economist.com/briefing/2024/01/04/joe-bidens-chances-do-not-look-good-the-democrats-have-no-plan-b", "https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden", "https://lite.cnn.com/2024/01/03/opinions/trump-iowa-new-hampshire-trials-zelizer/index.html", "https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/national", "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/04/06/upshot/pandemic-safety-net-medicaid.html", "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/01/06/can-congress-overturn-election-results-jan-6/71824789007/", "https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/01/trump-supreme-court-ballot-colorado-fourteenth-amendment/677049/", "https://www.statista.com/statistics/1219347/average-annual-apartment-rent-change-usa-by-state/?gclid=Cj0KCQiAv8SsBhC7ARIsALIkVT1SsZ3XQwpJfY_bVN_JCuLchQ6QoKDRf25WQI_zsijvnfDyPgILLCsaAuK8EALw_wcB", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/", "https://www.finder.com/life-insurance/odds-of-dying", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2023/12/09/haley-desantis-trump-iowa-caucus/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_elections_in_which_the_winner_lost_the_popular_vote", "https://lite.cnn.com/2023/12/24/opinions/trump-supreme-court-us-senate-colorado-obeidallah/index.html", "https://www.statista.com/chart/27610/inflation-and-wage-growth-in-the-united-states/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polling_for_United_States_presidential_elections", "https://pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/biden-trump-swing-state-polling-december-2023", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/", "https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/12/19/us/trump-colorado-ballot-news?referringSource=widget&widgetType=top-stories&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | 2021-04-05 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1775 |
<p>To implement its Android operating system, “Google copied 11,500 lines of Oracle’s original, human-readable computer source code, as well as the intricate structure and organization of 37 large packages of computer programs” (<a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/18/18-956/93436/20190327160337558_190311%20for%20E-Filing.pdf" target="_blank">Supremecourt.gov</a>). Oracle sued Google for copyright infringement and the issue has reached the Supreme Court (<a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/18-956" target="_blank">Oyez</a>, <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/google-llc-v-oracle-america-inc/" target="_blank">SCOTUSblog</a>, <a href="https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=ecf5cd6d-2b66-4240-b5d9-efab3c581830" target="_blank">Lexology</a>, <a href="https://www.zdnet.com/article/google-vs-oracle-the-next-chapter/" target="_blank">ZDNet</a>). Whether the Supreme Court rules on Google’s copying of Oracle’s code being fair use or not is immaterial to the resolution of this question. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-04-05 | In Google v. Oracle America, will the Supreme Court rule that the Copyright Act protects the Oracle computer source code that Google copied for its Android operating system? | 2020-09-04 | [["2020-09-04", 0.75], ["2020-09-04", 0.87], ["2020-09-04", 0.75], ["2020-09-04", 0.87], ["2020-09-04", 0.99], ["2020-09-04", 0.99], ["2020-09-04", 0.995], ["2020-09-04", 0.99], ["2020-09-04", 0.995], ["2020-09-04", 1.0], ["2020-09-05", 1.0], ["2020-09-05", 1.0], ["2020-09-05", 1.0], ["2020-09-05", 1.0], ["2020-09-06", 1.0], ["2020-09-06", 1.0], ["2020-09-06", 1.0], ["2020-09-06", 0.98], ["2020-09-06", 0.99], ["2020-09-06", 0.99], ["2020-09-07", 0.98], ["2020-09-07", 0.94], ["2020-09-07", 0.94], ["2020-09-07", 0.98], ["2020-09-08", 0.915], ["2020-09-08", 0.915], ["2020-09-08", 0.75], ["2020-09-08", 0.85], ["2020-09-08", 0.76], ["2020-09-08", 0.68], ["2020-09-08", 0.66], ["2020-09-08", 0.66], ["2020-09-08", 0.64], ["2020-09-09", 0.615], ["2020-09-09", 0.615], ["2020-09-10", 0.63], ["2020-09-10", 0.63], 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["https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-05/supreme-court-overturns-oracle-s-copyright-win-over-google?srnd=premium&sref=pQP8z0G5", "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/05/supreme-court-rules-in-googles-favor-in-copyright-dispute-with-oracle-over-android-software.html"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-05-02 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2651 |
<p>While China in November 2022 agreed to allow German expatriates in the country to receive Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccines, China has yet to approve more effective foreign mRNA COVID-19 vaccines for use among Chinese citizens (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2022/11/18/next-generation-vaccines-could-make-a-difference-in-2023" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/olaf-scholz-china-visit-secures-biontech-pfizer-vaccine-covid-19-coronavirus-access-for-expats/" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/11/29/1139509250/china-lockdown-protests-xi-jinping-zero-covid-policy" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Health/chinas-zero-covid-policy-back-protests-erupt-country/story?id=94086617" target="_blank">ABC News</a>, <a href="https://covid19.trackvaccines.org/country/china/" target="_blank">Track Vaccines</a>, <a href="https://publichealth.jhu.edu/2021/the-long-history-of-mrna-vaccines" target="_blank">JHU Bloomberg School of Public Health</a>). An approval does not need to include every Chinese citizen to count, but approvals for research and/or trials alone would not count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 22 December 2022</span>: China approving the use of a foreign-developed vaccine manufactured in China would count. China approving the use of a vaccine developed in a partnership between Chinese and foreign firms would not count.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-05-02 | Will the Chinese government publicly announce that it has approved the use of a foreign mRNA COVID-19 vaccine for use among its citizens in the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2 May 2023? | 2022-12-01 | [["2022-12-02", 0.35], ["2022-12-02", 0.25], ["2022-12-02", 0.182], ["2022-12-02", 0.2457], ["2022-12-02", 0.3189], ["2022-12-02", 0.2791], ["2022-12-02", 0.2438], 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"https://www.ft.com/content/1c46e139-4b98-4e3a-b66d-7a04c27893d2", "https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwiVyZaj5uD8AhWFATQIHaarBrcQFnoECA0QAw&url=https%3A%2F%2Fhealthpolicy-watch.news%2Fwill-china-allow-mrna-vaccines-to-boost-vulnerable-population%2F&usg=AOvVaw0XuxfTTrlijYOgfvtbl9OV", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/22/business/china-mrna-covid-vaccine.html?smid=url-share", "https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/davos-2023-moderna-ceo-says-he-wants-have-mrna-factory-every-continent-2023-01-18/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=Newsletter&utm_campaign=Daily-Briefing&utm_term=011823", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-65036474", "https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/17/china/china-covid-decisive-victory-xi-jinping-death-rate-intl-hnk/index.html", "https://www.reuters.com/world/china/whos-tedros-concerned-by-china-covid-surge-calls-again-data-2023-01-04/", "https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/china-needs-good-covid-booster-like-covovax-says-serum-institute-of-indias-adar-poonawalla-3724519", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/china-s-cansino-confident-its-mrna-covid-vaccine-as-good-as-moderna-pfizer-shots/ar-AA175dc2", "https://www.ft.com/content/b201dc98-2187-43de-817a-c9a3d0d981b9", "https://apnews.com/article/health-china-beijing-covid-0ad4ad8851cb1cea47a67abd16024c15", "https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/pfizer-not-talks-licensing-generic-covid-pill-china-2023-01-10/", "https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/07/the-worst-is-over-tech-investors-bullish-on-investing-in-china-again.html", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-seeks-to-write-its-own-history-of-battle-with-covid-19-1f6f8939", "https://twitter.com/shanghaidaily/status/1616301698745774080", "https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/chinas-111inc-app-starts-retail-sales-pfizers-paxlovid-covid-treatment-2022-12-13/", "https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/davos-2023-moderna-ceo-says-he-wants-have-mrna-factory-every-continent-2023-01-18/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=Newsletter&utm_campaign=Daily-Briefing&utm_term=011", "https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/chinas-cansino-confident-its-mrna-covid-vaccine-good-moderna-pfizer-shots-2023-02-03/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-22/china-approves-first-mrna-covid-shot-from-local-firm-cspc-pharma", "https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinese-made-mrna-vaccine-starts-trial-production-2023-01-07/", "http://english.news.cn/20230227/c2347066725f4285ae899b9def056c76/c.html", "https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/davos-2023-moderna-ceo-says-he-wants-have-mrna-factory-every-continent-2023-01-18/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/22/business/china-mrna-covid-vaccine.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1663 |
<p>Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has indicated moving forward on promises of controversial plans of annexation, which would require Knesset support (<a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/israel-to-initially-annex-3-settlement-blocs-in-w-bank/1871903" target="_blank">Anadolu Agency</a>, <a href="https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/netanyahu-annexation-map-not-ready-yet-dont-know-blue-and-white-position-631551" target="_blank">JPost</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/09/what-would-israel-annexing-the-west-bank-mean" target="_blank">Guardian</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-01-01 | Will Israel's Knesset pass a bill to annex and/or apply sovereignty over any West Bank territory before 1 January 2021? | 2020-06-19 | [["2020-06-19", 0.88], ["2020-06-19", 0.865], ["2020-06-19", 0.85], ["2020-06-19", 0.59], ["2020-06-19", 0.85], ["2020-06-19", 0.725], ["2020-06-19", 0.725], ["2020-06-19", 0.8], ["2020-06-19", 0.825], ["2020-06-19", 0.85], ["2020-06-19", 0.855], 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0.0], ["2020-12-28", 0.0], ["2020-12-28", 0.0], ["2020-12-29", 0.0], ["2020-12-29", 0.0], ["2020-12-30", 0.0], ["2020-12-31", 0.0], ["2021-01-01", 0.0]] | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-06-25 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2418 |
<p>In the wake of several mass shootings in the US, a bipartisan group of senators announced an agreement on various gun control and mental health policy changes for consideration in Congress (<a href="https://www.cornyn.senate.gov/content/news/cornyn-bipartisan-senators-announce-agreement" target="_blank">Senate.gov - John Cornyn</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/gun-laws-senate-bipartisan-agreement-59d553f3d1e35fdbe4930e4341e74efb" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jun/12/us-senators-bipartisan-gun-control-deal" target="_blank">Guardian</a>). For the purposes of this question, "enhanced" means anything to increase scrutiny of a prospective gun purchaser, though it need not cover the purchase of every type of gun.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-06-26 | Will federal legislation mandating or enabling enhanced background checks for gun purchasers under the age of 21 in the US become law before 8 November 2022? | 2022-06-17 | [["2022-06-17", 1.0], ["2022-06-17", 0.805], ["2022-06-17", 0.8], ["2022-06-17", 0.705], ["2022-06-17", 0.61], ["2022-06-17", 0.505], ["2022-06-17", 0.5], ["2022-06-17", 0.555], ["2022-06-17", 0.5], ["2022-06-17", 0.53], ["2022-06-17", 0.5], ["2022-06-17", 0.465], ["2022-06-18", 0.465], ["2022-06-18", 0.43], ["2022-06-18", 0.415], ["2022-06-18", 0.415], ["2022-06-18", 0.43], ["2022-06-19", 0.415], ["2022-06-19", 0.43], ["2022-06-19", 0.42], ["2022-06-19", 0.41], ["2022-06-20", 0.405], ["2022-06-20", 0.4], ["2022-06-20", 0.4], ["2022-06-20", 0.39], ["2022-06-20", 0.4], ["2022-06-20", 0.365], ["2022-06-20", 0.35], ["2022-06-20", 0.35], ["2022-06-20", 0.33], ["2022-06-20", 0.325], ["2022-06-20", 0.32], ["2022-06-20", 0.32], ["2022-06-21", 0.32], ["2022-06-21", 0.295], ["2022-06-21", 0.26], ["2022-06-21", 0.26], ["2022-06-21", 0.295], ["2022-06-22", 0.26], ["2022-06-22", 0.295], ["2022-06-22", 0.295], ["2022-06-22", 0.295], ["2022-06-22", 0.33], ["2022-06-23", 0.295], ["2022-06-23", 0.295], ["2022-06-23", 0.295], ["2022-06-23", 0.33], ["2022-06-23", 0.34], ["2022-06-23", 0.33], ["2022-06-23", 0.295], ["2022-06-23", 0.25], ["2022-06-23", 0.25], ["2022-06-23", 0.25], ["2022-06-23", 0.275], ["2022-06-23", 0.275], ["2022-06-24", 0.275], ["2022-06-24", 0.275], ["2022-06-24", 0.275], ["2022-06-24", 0.275], ["2022-06-24", 0.3], ["2022-06-24", 0.3], ["2022-06-24", 0.3], ["2022-06-24", 0.3], ["2022-06-24", 0.5], ["2022-06-24", 0.535], ["2022-06-24", 0.625], ["2022-06-24", 0.625], ["2022-06-24", 0.7], ["2022-06-24", 0.7], ["2022-06-24", 0.735], ["2022-06-24", 0.75], ["2022-06-24", 0.75], ["2022-06-25", 0.875], ["2022-06-25", 0.9], ["2022-06-25", 0.9], ["2022-06-25", 0.9]] | ["https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/20/20-843/193309/20210921191001002_20-843%20bsacProfessorsOfHistoryAndLaw.pdf", "https://www.npr.org/2022/06/23/1102995474/supreme-court-opinion-guns", "https://www.gocomics.com/nonsequitur/2022/06/24", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/21/us/politics/senate-gun-safety-bill.html", "https://twitter.com/ChrisMurphyCT/status/1539380315201933314"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2022-11-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2570 |
<p>A new Northern Ireland executive has yet to be formed since election in May 2022, and the UK's Secretary of State for Northern Ireland has said he will have to call a snap election on 28 October 2022 if a new executive is not formed by then (<a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-warns-northern-ireland-snap-election-dup-wont-share-power/" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="https://www.belfastlive.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/call-snap-election-stormont-not-25088685" target="_blank">BelfastLive</a>, <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/dup-threatens-to-trigger-snap-election-within-weeks-if-northern-ireland-protocol-remains-12402919" target="_blank">Sky News</a>, <a href="https://www.northernireland.gov.uk/topics/your-executive" target="_blank">Northern Ireland Executive</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2022-11-01 | Before 1 November 2022, will a snap election be called for the Northern Ireland Assembly? | 2022-10-04 | [["2022-10-04", 0.0], ["2022-10-04", 0.01], ["2022-10-04", 0.1167], ["2022-10-04", 0.0875], ["2022-10-04", 0.09], ["2022-10-05", 0.075], ["2022-10-05", 0.0643], ["2022-10-05", 0.1438], ["2022-10-05", 0.1188], ["2022-10-05", 0.1611], ["2022-10-05", 0.149], ["2022-10-05", 0.159], ["2022-10-05", 0.165], ["2022-10-05", 0.169], ["2022-10-05", 0.2445], ["2022-10-05", 0.26], ["2022-10-05", 0.2873], ["2022-10-05", 0.3383], ["2022-10-05", 0.3715], ["2022-10-05", 0.3585], ["2022-10-05", 0.3508], ["2022-10-05", 0.3686], ["2022-10-05", 0.3533], ["2022-10-05", 0.3719], ["2022-10-06", 0.4029], ["2022-10-06", 0.4194], ["2022-10-06", 0.4253], ["2022-10-06", 0.4279], ["2022-10-06", 0.4284], ["2022-10-06", 0.422], ["2022-10-06", 0.4205], ["2022-10-06", 0.4152], ["2022-10-07", 0.3952], 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0.4577], ["2022-10-19", 0.4477], ["2022-10-19", 0.4407], ["2022-10-19", 0.4414], ["2022-10-19", 0.4814], ["2022-10-19", 0.4964], ["2022-10-20", 0.5014], ["2022-10-20", 0.5221], ["2022-10-20", 0.5314], ["2022-10-20", 0.5886], ["2022-10-20", 0.5921], ["2022-10-20", 0.6207], ["2022-10-20", 0.635], ["2022-10-21", 0.6364], ["2022-10-21", 0.7079], ["2022-10-21", 0.7157], ["2022-10-21", 0.7171], ["2022-10-21", 0.7164], ["2022-10-21", 0.7157], ["2022-10-21", 0.7271], ["2022-10-21", 0.7343], ["2022-10-21", 0.745], ["2022-10-21", 0.7486], ["2022-10-22", 0.7707], ["2022-10-22", 0.785], ["2022-10-23", 0.805], ["2022-10-23", 0.8507], ["2022-10-23", 0.8521], ["2022-10-23", 0.8529], ["2022-10-23", 0.8714], ["2022-10-24", 0.9079], ["2022-10-24", 0.9114], ["2022-10-24", 0.9171], ["2022-10-24", 0.9293], ["2022-10-24", 0.935], ["2022-10-24", 0.9364], ["2022-10-24", 0.9393], ["2022-10-24", 0.9386], ["2022-10-25", 0.9427], ["2022-10-25", 0.9447], ["2022-10-25", 0.9447], ["2022-10-25", 0.97], ["2022-10-25", 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0.7733], ["2022-10-30", 0.7554], ["2022-10-30", 0.757], ["2022-10-30", 0.7546], ["2022-10-30", 0.7244], ["2022-10-31", 0.724], ["2022-10-31", 0.724], ["2022-10-31", 0.7212], ["2022-10-31", 0.72], ["2022-10-31", 0.7165], ["2022-10-31", 0.6881], ["2022-10-31", 0.5705], ["2022-10-31", 0.5484], ["2022-10-31", 0.5474], ["2022-10-31", 0.5237], ["2022-10-31", 0.5221], ["2022-10-31", 0.5216], ["2022-10-31", 0.4953], ["2022-10-31", 0.4779], ["2022-10-31", 0.4565], ["2022-10-31", 0.426], ["2022-10-31", 0.416], ["2022-10-31", 0.4065], ["2022-10-31", 0.389], ["2022-10-31", 0.3714], ["2022-10-31", 0.3609], ["2022-11-01", 0.3129], ["2022-11-01", 0.2991], ["2022-11-01", 0.2861], ["2022-11-01", 0.2878], ["2022-11-01", 0.2839], ["2022-11-01", 0.2835], ["2022-11-01", 0.2717], ["2022-11-01", 0.2717]] | ["https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1519477", "https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/oct/27/northern-ireland-set-for-snap-election-after-stormont-fails-to-elect-speaker", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/28/northern-ireland-secretary-plays-for-time-by-failing-to-name-election-date", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1529332", "https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/sinn-fein-says-election-talks-will-take-place-with-ni-secretary-on-tuesday-42104831.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/oct/18/ni-likely-to-face-its-second-election-this-year-by-xmas-mps-told", "https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/jeffrey-donaldson-calls-for-change-to-good-friday-agreement-and-end-to-salami-slicing-of-constitution-41486364.html", "https://www.cer.eu/publications/archive/policy-brief/2022/how-fix-northern-ireland-protocol", "https://www.politico.eu/article/democratic-unionists-would-rather-see-funeral-for-belfast-power-sharing-than-accept-protocol/", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/06/northern-ireland-protocol-a-little-too-strict-says-leo-varadkar", "https://www.ft.com/content/797f5416-c45b-4473-9a23-3085dde6e89a", "https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2022/2/section/1", "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-63178119", "https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2022/10/28/northern-ireland-assembly-stormont-latest/", "https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-northern-ireland-63293145", "https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.belfastlive.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/december-northern-ireland-assembly-election-25298350", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1518727", "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/856998/2020-01-08_a_new_decade__a_new_approach.pdf", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Donaldson", "https://www.politico.eu/article/ireland-brexit-talks-protocol-could-shelve-belfast-election-that-nobody-wants/", "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-northern-ireland-63293145", "https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-63178119", "https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-63425498", "https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/cutting-mla-pay-on-table-as-chris-heaton-harris-to-meet-with-ni-party-leaders-42106456.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1519188"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1626 |
<div>In January 2020, Dubai Crown Prince HH Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed announced, "The average Customer Happiness level achieved was 85.2%. Our goal is to reach 100%. A government led by His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum should demonstrate exceptional service and settle for nothing less than top rankings across all indicators." (<a href="https://www.emirates247.com/news/emirates/hamdan-bin-mohammed-reviews-results-of-2019-government-of-dubai-customer-happiness-index-survey-2020-01-19-1.691522" target="_blank">Emirates 24/7</a>). The outcome will be determined using data for 2020, expected to be released in 2021.</div><div><br></div><div>
<span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>
</div> | 2021-01-21 | Will the UAE’s Customer Happiness Index be higher for 2020 as compared to 2019? | 2020-05-21 | [["2020-05-21", 0.01], ["2020-05-21", 0.005], ["2020-05-21", 0.01], ["2020-05-21", 0.255], ["2020-05-21", 0.33], ["2020-05-21", 0.415], ["2020-05-21", 0.41], ["2020-05-22", 0.455], ["2020-05-22", 0.41], ["2020-05-22", 0.455], ["2020-05-22", 0.46], ["2020-05-22", 0.53], ["2020-05-22", 0.675], ["2020-05-23", 0.675], ["2020-05-23", 0.725], ["2020-05-23", 0.82], ["2020-05-24", 0.87], ["2020-05-24", 0.82], ["2020-05-25", 0.82], ["2020-05-25", 0.775], ["2020-05-25", 0.775], ["2020-05-25", 0.7], ["2020-05-25", 0.695], ["2020-05-26", 0.745], ["2020-05-26", 0.67], ["2020-05-27", 0.67], ["2020-05-28", 0.67], ["2020-05-28", 0.67], ["2020-05-28", 0.67], ["2020-05-29", 0.5], ["2020-05-29", 0.45], ["2020-05-29", 0.45], ["2020-05-31", 0.45], ["2020-05-31", 0.45], ["2020-06-01", 0.52], ["2020-06-01", 0.555], ["2020-06-02", 0.555], ["2020-06-04", 0.535], ["2020-06-04", 0.535], ["2020-06-05", 0.725], ["2020-06-05", 0.725], ["2020-06-07", 0.75], ["2020-06-07", 0.82], ["2020-06-07", 0.9], ["2020-06-09", 0.9], ["2020-06-11", 0.9], ["2020-06-11", 0.95], ["2020-06-11", 0.95], ["2020-06-11", 0.925], ["2020-06-12", 0.925], ["2020-06-12", 0.9], ["2020-06-13", 0.925], ["2020-06-14", 0.9], ["2020-06-15", 0.875], ["2020-06-18", 0.865], ["2020-06-24", 0.85], ["2020-06-25", 0.85], ["2020-06-26", 0.8], ["2020-06-26", 0.675], ["2020-06-26", 0.65], ["2020-06-28", 0.65], ["2020-06-28", 0.65], ["2020-06-29", 0.35], ["2020-06-29", 0.35], ["2020-07-01", 0.425], ["2020-07-06", 0.65], ["2020-07-09", 0.65], ["2020-07-12", 0.65], ["2020-07-15", 0.65], ["2020-07-16", 0.65], ["2020-07-18", 0.65], ["2020-07-20", 0.7], ["2020-07-22", 0.7], ["2020-07-23", 0.7], ["2020-07-23", 0.725], ["2020-07-25", 0.75], ["2020-07-25", 0.75], ["2020-07-29", 0.75], ["2020-07-30", 0.75], ["2020-07-31", 0.75], ["2020-08-01", 0.755], ["2020-08-02", 0.755], ["2020-08-02", 0.755], ["2020-08-03", 0.755], ["2020-08-11", 0.76], ["2020-08-11", 0.77], ["2020-08-13", 0.77], ["2020-08-13", 0.77], ["2020-08-14", 0.77], ["2020-08-15", 0.77], ["2020-08-16", 0.77], ["2020-08-19", 0.77], ["2020-08-19", 0.77], ["2020-08-22", 0.77], ["2020-08-22", 0.77], ["2020-08-23", 0.79], ["2020-08-27", 0.79], ["2020-08-31", 0.79], ["2020-09-02", 0.79], ["2020-09-04", 0.79], ["2020-09-05", 0.79], ["2020-09-07", 0.8], ["2020-09-13", 0.8], ["2020-09-23", 0.8], ["2020-09-28", 0.81], ["2020-09-29", 0.8], ["2020-09-29", 0.8], ["2020-09-30", 0.785], ["2020-10-11", 0.785], ["2020-10-13", 0.815], ["2020-10-14", 0.815], ["2020-10-15", 0.815], ["2020-10-18", 0.815], ["2020-11-07", 0.815], ["2020-11-08", 0.815], ["2020-11-14", 0.84], ["2020-11-16", 0.84], ["2020-11-17", 0.86], ["2020-11-20", 0.87], ["2020-11-22", 0.87], ["2020-11-26", 0.87], ["2020-11-27", 0.87], ["2020-11-27", 0.87], ["2020-11-29", 0.87], ["2020-11-30", 0.87], ["2020-12-02", 0.885], ["2020-12-02", 0.885], ["2020-12-05", 0.885], ["2020-12-06", 0.885], ["2020-12-10", 0.9], ["2020-12-10", 0.9], ["2020-12-10", 0.9], ["2020-12-10", 0.9], ["2020-12-15", 0.905], ["2020-12-17", 0.905], ["2020-12-19", 0.925], ["2020-12-19", 0.945], ["2020-12-20", 0.945], ["2020-12-22", 0.97], ["2020-12-27", 0.985], ["2020-12-28", 0.985], ["2020-12-29", 0.99], ["2020-12-29", 0.99], ["2020-12-29", 0.99], ["2020-12-31", 1.0], ["2020-12-31", 1.0], ["2021-01-01", 1.0]] | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-09-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2124 |
<p>CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners (<a href="https://www.fema.gov/sites/default/files/2020-07/planning-considerations-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attacks.pdf" target="_blank">FEMA</a>). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, "terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) (<a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331" target="_blank">Cornell</a>). A foreign terrorist organization (FTO) is an organization designated as an FTO by the US Department of State (<a href="https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/" target="_blank">State.gov</a>). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack. Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2022-09-01 | Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization resulting in at least five fatalities before 1 September 2022? | 2021-09-17 | [["2021-09-17", 0.12], ["2021-09-17", 0.46], ["2021-09-17", 0.6233333333333333], ["2021-09-17", 0.47], ["2021-09-17", 0.386], ["2021-09-17", 0.33], ["2021-09-18", 0.28285714285714286], ["2021-09-18", 0.2475], ["2021-09-18", 0.2311111111111111], ["2021-09-18", 0.208], ["2021-09-18", 0.296], ["2021-09-18", 0.221], ["2021-09-18", 0.128], ["2021-09-18", 0.128], ["2021-09-18", 0.138], ["2021-09-19", 0.145], ["2021-09-19", 0.14], ["2021-09-19", 0.14], ["2021-09-19", 0.195], ["2021-09-19", 0.2], ["2021-09-19", 0.196], ["2021-09-19", 0.204], ["2021-09-19", 0.204], ["2021-09-19", 0.209], ["2021-09-19", 0.114], ["2021-09-20", 0.103], ["2021-09-20", 0.103], ["2021-09-20", 0.104], ["2021-09-20", 0.10545454545454545], ["2021-09-20", 0.06181818181818182], ["2021-09-20", 0.059166666666666666], ["2021-09-22", 0.0475], ["2021-09-22", 0.0575], ["2021-09-23", 0.06615384615384616], ["2021-09-23", 0.13692307692307693], ["2021-09-23", 0.13857142857142857], ["2021-09-23", 0.1357142857142857], ["2021-09-24", 0.13214285714285715], ["2021-09-24", 0.124], ["2021-09-24", 0.122], ["2021-09-24", 0.1175], ["2021-09-25", 0.119375], ["2021-09-25", 0.12], ["2021-09-25", 0.120625], ["2021-09-26", 0.113125], ["2021-09-27", 0.113125], ["2021-09-27", 0.115625], ["2021-09-27", 0.10882352941176471], ["2021-09-28", 0.10882352941176471], ["2021-09-28", 0.12176470588235294], ["2021-09-29", 0.12176470588235294], ["2021-09-29", 0.11777777777777777], ["2021-10-03", 0.16722222222222222], ["2021-10-03", 0.1622222222222222], ["2021-10-04", 0.15333333333333332], ["2021-10-04", 0.1968421052631579], ["2021-10-05", 0.14684210526315788], ["2021-10-06", 0.1395], ["2021-10-06", 0.132], ["2021-10-08", 0.1315], ["2021-10-08", 0.132], ["2021-10-10", 0.1345], ["2021-10-10", 0.1335], ["2021-10-10", 0.134], ["2021-10-11", 0.1345], ["2021-10-16", 0.137], ["2021-10-16", 0.1395], ["2021-10-17", 0.14], ["2021-10-17", 0.1405], ["2021-10-17", 0.14], ["2021-10-18", 0.13333333333333333], ["2021-10-18", 0.13285714285714287], ["2021-10-19", 0.14333333333333334], ["2021-10-24", 0.14285714285714285], ["2021-10-26", 0.14476190476190476], ["2021-10-27", 0.14], ["2021-10-28", 0.14136363636363636], ["2021-10-28", 0.14227272727272727], ["2021-10-28", 0.1459090909090909], ["2021-10-29", 0.13956521739130434], ["2021-10-30", 0.16652173913043478], ["2021-10-30", 0.16782608695652174], ["2021-11-01", 0.13956521739130434], ["2021-11-01", 0.14130434782608695], ["2021-11-07", 0.1408695652173913], ["2021-11-08", 0.13217391304347825], ["2021-11-10", 0.12791666666666668], ["2021-11-14", 0.1275], ["2021-11-16", 0.12833333333333333], ["2021-11-24", 0.12833333333333333], ["2021-11-25", 0.12666666666666668], ["2021-11-28", 0.1336], ["2021-11-28", 0.098], ["2021-11-29", 0.0976], ["2021-11-30", 0.09384615384615384], ["2021-12-01", 0.11846153846153847], ["2021-12-02", 0.08076923076923077], ["2021-12-02", 0.08038461538461539], ["2021-12-05", 0.08076923076923077], ["2021-12-08", 0.08518518518518518], ["2021-12-13", 0.11777777777777777], ["2021-12-13", 0.08703703703703704], ["2021-12-14", 0.1237037037037037], ["2021-12-15", 0.12333333333333334], ["2021-12-17", 0.1225], ["2021-12-19", 0.12142857142857143], ["2021-12-20", 0.12107142857142857], ["2021-12-20", 0.12321428571428572], ["2021-12-21", 0.12178571428571429], ["2021-12-23", 0.12321428571428572], ["2021-12-23", 0.12285714285714286], ["2021-12-23", 0.1175], ["2021-12-29", 0.11857142857142858], ["2021-12-29", 0.11551724137931034], ["2021-12-29", 0.13275862068965516], ["2021-12-31", 0.12833333333333333], ["2021-12-31", 0.12766666666666668], ["2022-01-01", 0.12833333333333333], ["2022-01-01", 0.129], ["2022-01-01", 0.12866666666666668], ["2022-01-02", 0.12866666666666668], ["2022-01-04", 0.12612903225806452], ["2022-01-05", 0.12580645161290321], ["2022-01-05", 0.12290322580645162], ["2022-01-06", 0.12258064516129032], ["2022-01-06", 0.11875], ["2022-01-06", 0.1184375], ["2022-01-07", 0.1184375], ["2022-01-07", 0.1178125], ["2022-01-07", 0.1175], ["2022-01-07", 0.1215625], ["2022-01-09", 0.11848484848484848], ["2022-01-09", 0.11818181818181818], ["2022-01-09", 0.11878787878787879], ["2022-01-10", 0.11970588235294118], ["2022-01-10", 0.11941176470588236], ["2022-01-11", 0.11911764705882352], ["2022-01-12", 0.1188235294117647], ["2022-01-13", 0.11852941176470588], ["2022-01-16", 0.11970588235294118], ["2022-01-17", 0.11941176470588236], ["2022-01-17", 0.1188235294117647], ["2022-01-18", 0.11852941176470588], ["2022-01-19", 0.11852941176470588], ["2022-01-19", 0.11823529411764706], ["2022-01-20", 0.11794117647058823], ["2022-01-21", 0.11823529411764706], ["2022-01-21", 0.11823529411764706], 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0.0467], ["2022-08-29", 0.046], ["2022-08-29", 0.044], ["2022-08-30", 0.0402], ["2022-08-30", 0.0396], ["2022-08-31", 0.0396], ["2022-08-31", 0.0396], ["2022-08-31", 0.0396], ["2022-09-01", 0.0206], ["2022-09-01", 0.0206], ["2022-09-01", 0.0206]] | ["https://www.osha.gov/emergency-preparedness/guides/nerve-agents", "https://freebeacon.com/national-security/iranian-backed-sleeper-cell-militants-hibernating-u-s-positioned-attack", "https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8471907/WikiLeaks-Guantanamo-Bay-terrorist-secrets-revealed.html", "http://english.alarabiya.net/en/media/digital/2015/05/18/-Countdown-to-zero-hour-ISIS-supporters-on-Twitter-post-Italy-threats.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boston_Marathon_bombing", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XizSpjBeX6E", "https://www.pdclarion.com/news/state/most-voters-see-the-taliban-takeover-of-afghanistan-contributing-to-terrorism-in-the-united-states/article_1dd81fe9-6c82-5936-99b4-8cdd33e6fa71.html", "http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/german-jihadist-returns-from-syria-and-gives-testimony-a-1067764.html", "https://news.sky.com/story/islamic-state-terror-plots-revealed-in-seized-10000-documents-10675653", "https://www.start.umd.edu/research-projects/comparing-failed-foiled-completed-and-successful-terrorist-attacks", "https://nij.ojp.gov/topics/articles/look-terrorist-behavior-how-they-prepare-where-they-strike", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1377818", "https://twitter.com/jimeharrisjr/status/1454255948533571586", "https://www.newamerica.org/international-security/reports/terrorism-america-18-years-after-911/what-is-the-threat-to-the-united-states/", "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/isis-threat-virginia-malls-shopping-centers-increased-security/", "https://www.itv.com/news/2021-11-15/cordons-in-place-in-liverpool-as-investigations-continue-into-fatal-car-blast"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-05-30 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2781 |
<p>As the war in Ukraine continues, fears remain that Russia may use chemical or biological weapons (<a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/will-putin-use-chemical-weapons-in-ukraine/" target="_blank">Atlantic Council</a>, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-02-06/without-supplying-evidence-russia-says-its-investigating-alleged-ukrainian-use-of-chemical-weapons" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11801889/Fears-Russia-planning-false-flag-chemical-weapons-attack-Ukraine-blame-West.html" target="_blank">Daily Mail</a>). As of launch, there were 30 NATO member states (<a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_52044.htm" target="_blank">NATO</a>). The use of chemical or biological agents confined to an individual or small group of individuals in noncombat situations would not count (e.g., Sergei and Yulia Skripal, Alexander Litvinenko, Viktor Yushchenko, Roman Abramovich (<a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10660919/How-Russias-FSB-poison-squad-target-high-profile-victims-displeased-Vladimir-Putin.html" target="_blank">Daily Mail</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60904676" target="_blank">BBC</a>). Ukraine includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea. Accusations about incidents prior to the launch of this question would be immaterial. An accusation must assert that Russia used a weapon that was itself a chemical or biological weapon, but an accusation of the use of white phosphorus and/or tear gas alone would not count.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>
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0.1596], ["2023-04-07", 0.1576], ["2023-04-07", 0.1573], ["2023-04-09", 0.1573], ["2023-04-09", 0.1557], ["2023-04-10", 0.1557], ["2023-04-10", 0.1567], ["2023-04-11", 0.1569], ["2023-04-11", 0.1565], ["2023-04-11", 0.1565], ["2023-04-11", 0.1565], ["2023-04-12", 0.1565], ["2023-04-12", 0.1565], ["2023-04-12", 0.1563], ["2023-04-13", 0.1757], ["2023-04-13", 0.1747], ["2023-04-13", 0.1747], ["2023-04-13", 0.1764], ["2023-04-14", 0.1764], ["2023-04-16", 0.1764], ["2023-04-17", 0.1796], ["2023-04-17", 0.1802], ["2023-04-17", 0.1776], ["2023-04-17", 0.1688], ["2023-04-18", 0.1779], ["2023-04-19", 0.1806], ["2023-04-19", 0.1792], ["2023-04-19", 0.1729], ["2023-04-20", 0.1729], ["2023-04-21", 0.1733], ["2023-04-21", 0.1713], ["2023-04-22", 0.1713], ["2023-04-22", 0.1675], ["2023-04-23", 0.1675], ["2023-04-23", 0.1657], ["2023-04-25", 0.1502], ["2023-04-25", 0.1532], ["2023-04-25", 0.1513], ["2023-04-25", 0.1522], ["2023-04-27", 0.167], ["2023-04-27", 0.167], ["2023-04-27", 0.1576], 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["2023-05-17", 0.1375], ["2023-05-18", 0.1373], ["2023-05-19", 0.1372], ["2023-05-20", 0.1372], ["2023-05-20", 0.1372], ["2023-05-21", 0.1356], ["2023-05-21", 0.1348], ["2023-05-22", 0.1349], ["2023-05-22", 0.1344], ["2023-05-22", 0.1344], ["2023-05-22", 0.1334], ["2023-05-22", 0.1333], ["2023-05-23", 0.1333], ["2023-05-23", 0.1328], ["2023-05-23", 0.1326], ["2023-05-23", 0.1195], ["2023-05-24", 0.1192], ["2023-05-24", 0.1192], ["2023-05-24", 0.1192], ["2023-05-25", 0.1048], ["2023-05-25", 0.1044], ["2023-05-25", 0.1039], ["2023-05-25", 0.1036], ["2023-05-26", 0.1034], ["2023-05-26", 0.1034], ["2023-05-26", 0.1033], ["2023-05-26", 0.1024], ["2023-05-26", 0.1024], ["2023-05-26", 0.0968], ["2023-05-26", 0.0968], ["2023-05-26", 0.0826], ["2023-05-26", 0.0826], ["2023-05-27", 0.0826], ["2023-05-27", 0.0826], ["2023-05-27", 0.0813], ["2023-05-27", 0.0773], ["2023-05-28", 0.0769], ["2023-05-29", 0.0735], ["2023-05-29", 0.0732], ["2023-05-29", 0.0716], ["2023-05-29", 0.0716], ["2023-05-29", 0.0715], ["2023-05-30", 0.0715], ["2023-05-30", 0.0708], ["2023-05-30", 0.07], ["2023-05-30", 0.0684], ["2023-05-30", 0.0679], ["2023-05-30", 0.0668], ["2023-05-30", 0.066], ["2023-05-30", 0.066], ["2023-05-30", 0.066], ["2023-05-30", 0.066], ["2023-05-30", 0.066]] | ["https://youtu.be/PY8P3ET-Q7E", "https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/chemical", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2023/03/14/buckle-up-china-may-propose-new-anti-aukus-military-alliance-very-soon/?sh=653c580a3d0e", "https://www.ft.com/content/32631455-50a7-489f-82ed-c2ab5c9851da", "https://www.rferl.org/a/nato-warning-chemical-weapons/31768847.html", "https://youtu.be/h2P9AmGcMdM", "https://news.yahoo.com/fact-check-46-u-military-140019237.html?guccounter=1", "https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-wiltshire-64742249", "https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/international/story/19830731-us-accuses-soviet-union-of-using-chemical-and-biological-weapons-in-afghanistan-770879-2013-07-19", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/without-supplying-evidence-russia-says-its-investigating-alleged-ukrainian-use-2023-02-06/#:~:text=Ukraine's%20Armed%20Forces%2C%20in%20the,%22disinformation%20as%20a%20weapon.%22", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction", "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65506993", "https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/011923-europe-still-buying-over-quarter-of-diesel-imports-from-russia-ahead-of-new-curbs'", "https://news.yahoo.com/russian-defence-ministry-announces-preparation-092817151.html", "https://nuke.fas.org/guide/russia/cbw/jptac008_l94001.htm", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_chemical_warfare#Use_in_conflicts_after_World_War_II", "https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/chemical/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1857 |
<p>Section 230 is a statute that shields social media companies from liability for content their users post (<a href="https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/trump-and-section-230-what-know" target="_blank">Council on Foreign Relations</a>, <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/LSB10306.pdf" target="_blank">FAS</a>, <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/230)" target="_blank">§230</a>). President Trump has threatened to veto a defense spending bill unless Section 230 is repealed (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/03/trump-defense-bill-section-230.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>).</p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-01-01 | Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 1 January 2021? | 2020-12-09 | [["2020-12-09", 0.0], ["2020-12-09", 0.0], ["2020-12-09", 0.0], ["2020-12-09", 0.0], ["2020-12-09", 0.0], ["2020-12-09", 0.0], ["2020-12-09", 0.0], ["2020-12-09", 0.0], ["2020-12-09", 0.0], ["2020-12-10", 0.0], ["2020-12-10", 0.0], ["2020-12-10", 0.0], ["2020-12-10", 0.0], ["2020-12-10", 0.0], ["2020-12-10", 0.0], ["2020-12-10", 0.0], ["2020-12-10", 0.0], ["2020-12-10", 0.0], ["2020-12-11", 0.0], ["2020-12-11", 0.0], ["2020-12-11", 0.0], ["2020-12-11", 0.0], ["2020-12-11", 0.0], ["2020-12-11", 0.0], ["2020-12-11", 0.0], ["2020-12-11", 0.0], ["2020-12-11", 0.0], ["2020-12-11", 0.0], ["2020-12-11", 0.0], ["2020-12-12", 0.0], ["2020-12-12", 0.0], ["2020-12-12", 0.0], ["2020-12-12", 0.0], ["2020-12-12", 0.0], ["2020-12-12", 0.0], ["2020-12-12", 0.0], ["2020-12-12", 0.0], ["2020-12-12", 0.0], ["2020-12-12", 0.005], ["2020-12-13", 0.0], ["2020-12-13", 0.01], ["2020-12-13", 0.005], ["2020-12-14", 0.005], ["2020-12-14", 0.01], ["2020-12-14", 0.0], ["2020-12-15", 0.0], ["2020-12-15", 0.0], ["2020-12-15", 0.0], ["2020-12-15", 0.01], ["2020-12-15", 0.005], ["2020-12-15", 0.01], ["2020-12-16", 0.01], ["2020-12-16", 0.01], ["2020-12-17", 0.01], ["2020-12-17", 0.01], ["2020-12-17", 0.01], ["2020-12-18", 0.01], ["2020-12-18", 0.01], ["2020-12-20", 0.01], ["2020-12-22", 0.01], ["2020-12-22", 0.01], ["2020-12-23", 0.01], ["2020-12-23", 0.01], ["2020-12-24", 0.01], ["2020-12-25", 0.01], ["2020-12-26", 0.01], ["2020-12-26", 0.01], ["2020-12-27", 0.01], ["2020-12-27", 0.01], ["2020-12-27", 0.01], ["2020-12-27", 0.01], ["2020-12-28", 0.01], ["2020-12-29", 0.01], ["2020-12-29", 0.01], ["2020-12-30", 0.005], ["2020-12-30", 0.005], ["2020-12-30", 0.0], ["2020-12-30", 0.0], ["2020-12-31", 0.0], ["2020-12-31", 0.0], ["2020-12-31", 0.0], ["2021-01-01", 0.0]] | ["https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-defense-trump-idUSKBN28N0O5", "https://www.cnet.com/news/house-approves-defense-spending-bill-with-veto-proof-majority/", "https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2020/12/trump-to-congress-repeal-section-230-or-ill-veto-military-funding/", "https://www.newsweek.com/section-230-us-law-explained-donald-trump-terminated-tweet-1550757", "https://www.axios.com/ndaa-senate-trump-veto-section-230-defense-e9ad35e4-5aac-41d7-90ee-6795ac8afe60.html"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-03-15 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1892 |
<p>Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high (<a href="https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366" target="_blank">BBC</a>). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.</p><p></p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.<br></p><p><span style="font-size:10px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank"><span style="font-size:10px;">how we resolve questions </span></a><span style="font-size:10px;">and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank"><span style="font-size:10px;">how scores are calculated</span></a><span style="font-size:10px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-03-15 | Before 15 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea? | 2021-01-06 | [["2021-01-06", 0.2], ["2021-01-06", 0.105], ["2021-01-06", 0.01], ["2021-01-06", 0.01], ["2021-01-06", 0.01], ["2021-01-06", 0.01], ["2021-01-06", 0.01], ["2021-01-06", 0.01], ["2021-01-06", 0.01], ["2021-01-06", 0.01], ["2021-01-06", 0.01], ["2021-01-06", 0.01], 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"https://www.arabnews.com/node/1814131/middle-east", "https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your-military/2021/03/07/us-b-52s-again-fly-over-mideast-in-warning-to-iran/", "https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2021-03-03/iraqi-airbase-housing-us-troops-attacked-by-rockets-iran-militia-believed-involved", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-officials-said-to-push-calmer-waters-with-iran-after-alleged-ship-blasts/", "https://fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/IF10899.pdf", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51028954", "https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-02-20/iran-spokesman-says-tehran-confident-about-lifting-of-us-sanctions-despite-wrangling", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/25/us/politics/biden-syria-airstrike-iran.html", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/02/01/congress-biden-iran-nuclear-deal/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-19/u-s-iran-standoff-shows-difficulty-of-salvaging-nuclear-deal", "https://www.state.gov/briefings/department-press-briefing-march-1-2021/#post-222719-Iran", "https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/04/iran-group-responsible-iraq-attack-473618", "https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/biden-airstrikes-syria-retaliating-against-iran-backed-militias-n1258912", "https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/25/politics/us-iraq-iran/index.html", "https://www.criticalthreats.org/briefs/iran-file", "https://www.voanews.com/middle-east/voa-news-iran/source-us-informed-israel-ahead-iran-policy-announcement", "https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-iran-nuclear-deal", "https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/war-on-terror/iran-backed-militia-leader-threatens-to-take-up-arms-against-turkey", "https://www.scmp.com/news/world/middle-east/article/3123976/us-contractor-dies-rocket-attack-iraq-base", "https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/hijacking-riots-and-explosions-irans-regime-tested-amid-tensions-661194", "https://us.cnn.com/2021/02/25/politics/us-iraq-iran/index.html", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/3/5/gantz-says-israel-has-list-of-iran-backed-targets-ready-to-strike", "https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/north-dakota/articles/2021-03-07/b-52s-again-fly-over-mideast-in-us-military-warning-to-iran", "https://thediplomat.com/2021/03/israel-iran-and-china-us-middle-east-relations/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2020-10-28 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1728 |
<p>Major League Baseball (MLB) restarted its season in late July with protocols in place to cope with COVID-19, but new outbreaks among players have put the abbreviated season in jeopardy (<a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/29579708/as-mlb-confronts-coronavirus-first-impressions-2020-season-last" target="_blank">ESPN</a>, <a href="https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/cardinals-covid-19-outbreak-more-positive-test-results-expected-per-report/" target="_blank">CBS Sports</a>). If MLB declares the season ended without a World Series deciding a champion, the question would close "No."</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>
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| 1.0 |
True | 2021-11-03 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1993 |
<p>The Federal Reserve's monthly purchases of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities, begun early in the pandemic, is expected to taper down eventually (<a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-says-fed-will-gradually-cut-its-bond-market-footprint-some-think-this-year-11616722109" target="_blank">Market Watch</a>, <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/bonds/federal-reserve-to-taper-bond-buying-in-fourth-quarter-economists/articleshow/82255972.cms" target="_blank">Economic Times</a>). The outcome will be determined using statements and notes released by the FOMC (<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm" target="_blank">Federal Reserve</a>). As of 28 April 2021, the Federal Reserve was increasing its "holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $40 billion per month" (<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20210428a.htm" target="_blank">Federal Reserve - April 2021 Statement</a>). The date a reduction would take effect is immaterial, and conditional announcements (e.g., if the labor market improves, if inflation rises) would not count. Any repo or reverse repo operations are immaterial (<a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/domestic-market-operations/monetary-policy-implementation/repo-reverse-repo-agreements" target="_blank">NY Fed</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.2;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 3 May 2021</span>: The question is concerned with the total of $120 billion per month, irrespective of the specific levels of Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities being purchased.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-11-03 | Before 16 December 2021, will the Federal Reserve announce it will reduce its monthly quantitative easing bond buying? | 2021-04-30 | [["2021-04-30", 0.0], ["2021-04-30", 0.01], ["2021-04-30", 0.035], ["2021-05-01", 0.01], ["2021-05-01", 0.035], ["2021-05-01", 0.075], ["2021-05-01", 0.075], ["2021-05-02", 0.075], ["2021-05-02", 0.15], ["2021-05-02", 0.2], ["2021-05-02", 0.2], ["2021-05-02", 0.2], ["2021-05-02", 0.2], ["2021-05-02", 0.2], ["2021-05-03", 0.2], ["2021-05-03", 0.225], ["2021-05-03", 0.25], ["2021-05-03", 0.2], ["2021-05-04", 0.2], ["2021-05-04", 0.2], ["2021-05-05", 0.1], 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["2021-11-02", 0.97], ["2021-11-03", 0.97]] | ["https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1343769", "https://www.ft.com/content/8ff2a38e-82d1-429a-935f-a26ace6f7e1d", "https://www.ft.com/content/7c2fc0ce-e7c0-4083-92e8-e81d9235ab45", "https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ice-coming-morgan-stanley-warns-odds-destructive-20-correction-are-rising", "https://reut.rs/3hYbT8v", "https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-keeps-printing-or-whole-things-blows", "https://on.ft.com/3naDdDX", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1339763", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n-azWgGI9iU", "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/22/federal-reserve-holds-interest-rates-steady-says-tapering-of-bond-buying-coming-soon.html", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-tees-up-taper-and-signals-rate-rises-possible-next-year-11632333617?mod=hp_lead_pos3", "https://www.ft.com/content/0a7a4edd-b656-4d6a-b608-454241d0288e", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-19/fed-s-waller-sees-tapering-next-month-rate-hike-some-time-off", "https://bit.ly/3lVunrA", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-21/asia-stocks-set-for-muted-open-with-focus-on-china-markets-wrap?cmpid=BBD092221_BIZ&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=210922&utm_campaign=bloombergdaily", "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/weekly-jobless-claims-week-ended-october-16-2021-193313259.html", "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20210922a.htm", "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/august-jobs-report-nonfarm-payrolls-labor-department-coronavirus-194347179.html", "https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-speaks-loudly-carries-feather", "https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/australias-2y-bond-just-blew-after-central-bank-unexpectedly-refused-buy-it", "https://www.merriam-webster.com/words-at-play/liftoff-meaning-by-federal-reserve#:~:text=In%20this%20case%2C%20liftoff%20refers,a%20hyphen%3A%20lift%2Doff", "http://www.mauldineconomics.com/the-10th-man/the-path-of-least-embarrassment", "https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/with-focus-taper-five-questions-fed-2021-09-20/", "https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-business-health-economy-inflation-b9c578a9c296b577954f9747ae420e4e", "https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/while-jackson-hole-fed-no-way-indicated-it-about-stop-digging"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2021-09-16 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2108 |
<p>Biden has already met Johnson once since becoming president, but has so far only invited Queen Elizabeth II from the UK to the White House (<a href="https://news.sky.com/story/g7-boris-johnson-says-working-with-joe-biden-is-breath-of-fresh-air-after-first-face-to-face-talks-12329551" target="_blank">Sky News</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2021/06/13/the-queen-president-joe-biden-493865" target="_blank">Politico</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-09-20 | Before 1 January 2022, will President Biden invite Prime Minister Boris Johnson to visit the White House? | 2021-08-26 | [["2021-08-27", 0.05], ["2021-08-27", 0.03], ["2021-08-27", 0.05], ["2021-08-27", 0.05], ["2021-08-27", 0.15], ["2021-08-27", 0.25], ["2021-08-27", 0.35], ["2021-08-27", 0.25], ["2021-08-28", 0.225], ["2021-08-28", 0.25], ["2021-08-28", 0.275], ["2021-08-28", 0.3], ["2021-08-28", 0.275], ["2021-08-28", 0.25], ["2021-08-28", 0.225], ["2021-08-29", 0.25], ["2021-08-29", 0.24], ["2021-08-29", 0.25], ["2021-08-29", 0.25], ["2021-08-29", 0.25], ["2021-08-29", 0.25], ["2021-08-29", 0.25], ["2021-08-29", 0.25], ["2021-08-29", 0.25], ["2021-08-29", 0.25], ["2021-08-29", 0.25], ["2021-08-29", 0.25], ["2021-08-30", 0.25], ["2021-08-30", 0.25], ["2021-08-30", 0.25], ["2021-08-30", 0.25], ["2021-08-30", 0.25], ["2021-08-30", 0.25], ["2021-08-30", 0.25], ["2021-08-30", 0.25], ["2021-08-30", 0.25], ["2021-08-30", 0.26], ["2021-08-30", 0.27], ["2021-08-30", 0.295], ["2021-08-30", 0.295], ["2021-08-30", 0.3], ["2021-08-30", 0.3], ["2021-08-31", 0.33], ["2021-08-31", 0.34], ["2021-08-31", 0.34], ["2021-08-31", 0.335], ["2021-08-31", 0.345], ["2021-08-31", 0.35], ["2021-08-31", 0.345], ["2021-08-31", 0.35], ["2021-08-31", 0.345], ["2021-08-31", 0.34], ["2021-08-31", 0.345], ["2021-08-31", 0.335], ["2021-08-31", 0.33], ["2021-08-31", 0.335], ["2021-08-31", 0.34], ["2021-08-31", 0.335], ["2021-08-31", 0.33], ["2021-08-31", 0.325], ["2021-08-31", 0.32], ["2021-08-31", 0.32], ["2021-08-31", 0.325], ["2021-08-31", 0.33], ["2021-08-31", 0.325], ["2021-08-31", 0.33], ["2021-08-31", 0.325], ["2021-08-31", 0.32], ["2021-08-31", 0.315], ["2021-08-31", 0.325], ["2021-08-31", 0.32], ["2021-08-31", 0.325], ["2021-08-31", 0.33], ["2021-08-31", 0.33], ["2021-08-31", 0.33], ["2021-08-31", 0.335], ["2021-09-01", 0.35], ["2021-09-01", 0.36], ["2021-09-01", 0.38], ["2021-09-01", 0.37], ["2021-09-01", 0.36], ["2021-09-01", 0.365], ["2021-09-01", 0.38], ["2021-09-01", 0.39], ["2021-09-01", 0.38], ["2021-09-01", 0.39], ["2021-09-01", 0.39], ["2021-09-01", 0.38], ["2021-09-01", 0.39], ["2021-09-01", 0.39], ["2021-09-01", 0.39], ["2021-09-01", 0.39], ["2021-09-01", 0.39], ["2021-09-01", 0.395], ["2021-09-01", 0.395], ["2021-09-01", 0.415], ["2021-09-01", 0.415], ["2021-09-01", 0.43], ["2021-09-02", 0.44], ["2021-09-02", 0.44], ["2021-09-02", 0.43], ["2021-09-02", 0.415], ["2021-09-02", 0.4], ["2021-09-02", 0.395], ["2021-09-02", 0.395], ["2021-09-02", 0.375], ["2021-09-02", 0.36], ["2021-09-02", 0.32], ["2021-09-02", 0.315], ["2021-09-03", 0.315], ["2021-09-03", 0.31], ["2021-09-03", 0.31], ["2021-09-03", 0.31], ["2021-09-03", 0.31], ["2021-09-03", 0.31], ["2021-09-03", 0.365], ["2021-09-03", 0.305], ["2021-09-04", 0.31], ["2021-09-04", 0.3], ["2021-09-04", 0.3], ["2021-09-04", 0.3], ["2021-09-05", 0.3], ["2021-09-05", 0.29], ["2021-09-05", 0.29], ["2021-09-05", 0.29], ["2021-09-05", 0.27], ["2021-09-05", 0.26], ["2021-09-05", 0.25], ["2021-09-05", 0.25], ["2021-09-05", 0.25], ["2021-09-05", 0.255], ["2021-09-05", 0.255], ["2021-09-06", 0.25], ["2021-09-06", 0.25], ["2021-09-06", 0.25], ["2021-09-06", 0.25], ["2021-09-06", 0.25], ["2021-09-06", 0.25], ["2021-09-06", 0.25], ["2021-09-06", 0.25], ["2021-09-07", 0.25], ["2021-09-07", 0.25], ["2021-09-07", 0.25], ["2021-09-07", 0.26], ["2021-09-08", 0.26], ["2021-09-09", 0.25], ["2021-09-09", 0.25], ["2021-09-09", 0.25], ["2021-09-09", 0.25], ["2021-09-09", 0.25], ["2021-09-09", 0.24], ["2021-09-09", 0.23], ["2021-09-09", 0.22], ["2021-09-09", 0.21], ["2021-09-09", 0.21], ["2021-09-10", 0.21], ["2021-09-10", 0.21], ["2021-09-10", 0.21], ["2021-09-10", 0.21], ["2021-09-10", 0.19], ["2021-09-10", 0.19], ["2021-09-10", 0.2], ["2021-09-10", 0.2], ["2021-09-11", 0.18], ["2021-09-11", 0.18], ["2021-09-12", 0.18], ["2021-09-12", 0.18], ["2021-09-12", 0.19], ["2021-09-12", 0.175], ["2021-09-13", 0.175], ["2021-09-13", 0.175], ["2021-09-13", 0.19], ["2021-09-13", 0.19], ["2021-09-13", 0.2], ["2021-09-13", 0.2], ["2021-09-13", 0.2], ["2021-09-13", 0.2], ["2021-09-13", 0.2], ["2021-09-13", 0.2], ["2021-09-13", 0.2], ["2021-09-13", 0.2], ["2021-09-13", 0.2], ["2021-09-13", 0.2], ["2021-09-14", 0.22], ["2021-09-14", 0.22], ["2021-09-14", 0.22], ["2021-09-14", 0.22], ["2021-09-14", 0.22], ["2021-09-14", 0.22], ["2021-09-15", 0.235], ["2021-09-15", 0.25], ["2021-09-15", 0.25], ["2021-09-15", 0.25], ["2021-09-15", 0.25], ["2021-09-15", 0.25], ["2021-09-15", 0.255], ["2021-09-15", 0.26], ["2021-09-15", 0.27], ["2021-09-15", 0.27], ["2021-09-15", 0.285], ["2021-09-16", 0.285]] | ["https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38720850", "https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1482216/US-trade-deal-news-Joe-Biden-Boris-Johnson-Brexit-EU-exit-Afghanistan-Kabul", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_diplomatic_visits_to_the_United_States:_Europe#United_Kingdom", "https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-hopes-to-meet-president-joe-biden-for-talks-at-white-house-5pgpldnrt", "https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/15/biden-deal-uk-australia-defense-tech-sharing-511877", "https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-09-15/us-president-biden-to-host-uk-pm-boris-johnson-at-the-white-house-next-week-axios", "https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-pm-johnson-hold-talks-with-biden-this-month-times-2021-09-12/", "https://archive.is/qNeEE#selection-859.150-859.288", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/", "https://news.sky.com/story/cop26-boris-johnson-to-travel-to-un-and-white-house-to-push-for-climate-action-ahead-of-crunch-summit-12411852", "https://history.state.gov/departmenthistory/visits/united-kingdom", "https://uk.usembassy.gov/our-relationship/visits-of-presidents-of-the-united-states-to-the-united-kingdom/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1335045", "https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-38720850", "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58613389", "https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/south-asia/afghanistan-taliban-joe-biden-boris-johnson-b1908103.html", "https://www.rferl.org/a/1086035.html", "https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-joe-biden-white-house-meeting-next-week-b955819.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/sep/19/boris-johnson-to-address-amazons-tax-record-with-jeff-bezos-on-us-visit", "https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/08/17/readout-of-president-joseph-r-biden-jr-call-with-prime-minister-boris-johnson-of-the-united-kingdom-2/", "https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-58613389"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2023-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2287 |
<p>President Vladimir Putin has dominated Russian politics since he succeeded Boris Yeltsin as president in 1999 (<a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Vladimir-Putin" target="_blank">Britannica</a>). Putin's decision to invade Ukraine has received broad international condemnation (<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/22/russia-strongly-condemned-at-un-after-putin-orders-troops-into-eastern-ukraine" target="_blank">Guardian</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 3 May 2022</span>: The temporary transfer of power to an acting president alone would not be considered Putin ceasing to be president (e.g., <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/1082191.html" target="_blank">Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-01-01 | Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 January 2023? | 2022-02-26 | [["2022-02-26", 0.08428571428571428], ["2022-02-26", 0.077], ["2022-02-26", 0.024], ["2022-02-27", 0.08636363636363636], ["2022-02-27", 0.11], ["2022-02-27", 0.155], ["2022-02-27", 0.10111111111111111], ["2022-02-27", 0.1485], ["2022-02-27", 0.15818181818181817], ["2022-02-27", 0.19041666666666668], ["2022-02-27", 0.22615384615384615], ["2022-02-27", 0.23884615384615385], ["2022-02-27", 0.2925], ["2022-02-27", 0.3217241379310345], ["2022-02-27", 0.2986666666666667], ["2022-02-28", 0.3615625], ["2022-02-28", 0.33914285714285713], ["2022-02-28", 0.3416666666666667], ["2022-02-28", 0.3381578947368421], ["2022-02-28", 0.31225], ["2022-02-28", 0.3048837209302326], ["2022-02-28", 0.26555555555555554], ["2022-02-28", 0.24808510638297873], ["2022-02-28", 0.2608], ["2022-02-28", 0.28615384615384615], ["2022-02-28", 0.30203703703703705], ["2022-02-28", 0.31607142857142856], ["2022-02-28", 0.32241379310344825], ["2022-03-01", 0.33366666666666667], ["2022-03-01", 0.3253968253968254], ["2022-03-01", 0.3463076923076923], ["2022-03-01", 0.3407352941176471], ["2022-03-01", 0.3484285714285714], ["2022-03-01", 0.34569444444444447], ["2022-03-01", 0.3712162162162162], ["2022-03-01", 0.35194805194805195], ["2022-03-01", 0.3464102564102564], ["2022-03-01", 0.34703703703703703], ["2022-03-01", 0.32353658536585367], ["2022-03-01", 0.29428571428571426], ["2022-03-01", 0.3027586206896552], ["2022-03-01", 0.2958426966292135], ["2022-03-01", 0.2996703296703297], ["2022-03-02", 0.2838709677419355], ["2022-03-02", 0.2697894736842105], ["2022-03-02", 0.2757291666666667], ["2022-03-02", 0.27153061224489794], ["2022-03-02", 0.26474747474747473], ["2022-03-02", 0.2725], ["2022-03-02", 0.27223300970873787], ["2022-03-02", 0.25971428571428573], ["2022-03-03", 0.2526168224299065], ["2022-03-03", 0.24861111111111112], ["2022-03-03", 0.25481818181818183], ["2022-03-03", 0.249375], ["2022-03-04", 0.2532456140350877], ["2022-03-04", 0.25321739130434784], ["2022-03-04", 0.2585344827586207], ["2022-03-04", 0.25310344827586206], ["2022-03-04", 0.2478813559322034], ["2022-03-05", 0.2621186440677966], ["2022-03-05", 0.2704201680672269], ["2022-03-05", 0.2635], ["2022-03-06", 0.24727272727272728], ["2022-03-06", 0.2459016393442623], ["2022-03-07", 0.24266129032258066], ["2022-03-07", 0.2509677419354839], ["2022-03-07", 0.25833333333333336], ["2022-03-07", 0.26921259842519685], ["2022-03-07", 0.27171875], ["2022-03-08", 0.271796875], ["2022-03-08", 0.26561538461538464], ["2022-03-08", 0.26353846153846155], ["2022-03-08", 0.2581818181818182], ["2022-03-08", 0.2434090909090909], ["2022-03-09", 0.24067669172932332], ["2022-03-09", 0.23910447761194029], ["2022-03-09", 0.24385185185185185], ["2022-03-09", 0.23927007299270073], ["2022-03-10", 0.23942028985507247], ["2022-03-10", 0.2327142857142857], ["2022-03-10", 0.223], ["2022-03-10", 0.21943262411347517], ["2022-03-11", 0.21352112676056337], ["2022-03-11", 0.21577464788732395], ["2022-03-11", 0.211875], ["2022-03-12", 0.2073611111111111], ["2022-03-13", 0.20806896551724138], ["2022-03-13", 0.20410958904109588], ["2022-03-13", 0.2], ["2022-03-13", 0.20439189189189189], ["2022-03-14", 0.2025], ["2022-03-14", 0.20214765100671142], ["2022-03-14", 0.19846666666666668], ["2022-03-15", 0.1976], ["2022-03-15", 0.2026], ["2022-03-15", 0.2048], ["2022-03-16", 0.2048], ["2022-03-16", 0.2026], ["2022-03-17", 0.20046666666666665], ["2022-03-17", 0.2008], ["2022-03-17", 0.19846666666666668], ["2022-03-18", 0.19453333333333334], ["2022-03-18", 0.20013333333333333], ["2022-03-19", 0.1944], ["2022-03-20", 0.19366666666666665], ["2022-03-21", 0.1942], ["2022-03-21", 0.19393333333333335], ["2022-03-22", 0.20606666666666668], ["2022-03-22", 0.20613333333333334], ["2022-03-22", 0.20813333333333334], ["2022-03-23", 0.2068], ["2022-03-24", 0.2096], ["2022-03-25", 0.21633333333333332], ["2022-03-26", 0.22013333333333332], ["2022-03-26", 0.22193333333333334], ["2022-03-27", 0.22266666666666668], ["2022-03-27", 0.23293333333333333], ["2022-03-28", 0.22846666666666668], ["2022-03-29", 0.2292], ["2022-03-29", 0.22766666666666666], ["2022-03-30", 0.22833333333333333], ["2022-03-31", 0.22846666666666668], ["2022-04-01", 0.22766666666666666], ["2022-04-02", 0.22733333333333333], ["2022-04-02", 0.22913333333333333], ["2022-04-03", 0.23386666666666667], ["2022-04-04", 0.23146666666666665], ["2022-04-04", 0.23086666666666666], ["2022-04-05", 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0.0115], ["2022-12-21", 0.0157], ["2022-12-22", 0.0155], ["2022-12-22", 0.0157], ["2022-12-23", 0.0154], ["2022-12-24", 0.0156], ["2022-12-25", 0.0156], ["2022-12-25", 0.0147], ["2022-12-25", 0.0141], ["2022-12-25", 0.0101], ["2022-12-26", 0.0093], ["2022-12-26", 0.0091], ["2022-12-27", 0.009], ["2022-12-28", 0.0086], ["2022-12-28", 0.0074], ["2022-12-29", 0.0069], ["2022-12-30", 0.0067], ["2022-12-30", 0.0062], ["2022-12-31", 0.0053], ["2023-01-01", 0.0052]] | ["https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/12/06/what-secret-russian-state-polling-tells-us-about-support-for-the-war-a79596", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/shooting-at-russian-military-training-ground-leaves-11-dead-15-injured-11665869967?mod=djemalertNEWS", "https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/Donetsk+Donetsk+Ukraine?canonicalCityId=75d657e7bfd13bef4b16d01854b11965bc0dde14d1d358d24fecdf1a67103fdd", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/09/13/russia-ukraine-war-end-of-putin-predictions/", "https://www.newsweek.com/vladimir-putin-health-rumors-cancels-event-1766422", "https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/russia-ukraine-debt-ministry-of-defence-vladimir-putin-war-b1041151.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1412287", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/13/russian-elite-mood-war/", "https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/putin-warriors", "https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/02/second-world-war-dnieper-dam-blown-up-by-russians-1941", "https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCoTOctober06%2C2022.png", "https://ritholtz.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/howrussia.png", "https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/20160557/putin-parkinsons-pancreatic-cancer-russian-insider-reveals/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1521447", "https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russian-federation/2022-06-21/can-putin-survive", "https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-12", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/11/world/europe/russia-missiles-weapons-stockpile.html?smid=url-share", "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/#1586", "https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/russia-what-would-need-happen-seriously-threaten-putin-s-power", "https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCoTOctober17%2C2022.png", "https://www.grid.news/story/global/2022/10/10/putin-might-lose-the-war-what-would-that-look-like-for-russia-ukraine-and-the-world/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/11/26/russia-war-economy-military-supply/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F386caa9%2F638245c13564ae5f7526f7c5%2F596c2161ade4e24119c481cd%2F10%2F70%2F638245c13564ae5f7526f7c5&wp_cu=acb9390497ce6b0068bf810dfdc90b1d%7C18ba066c-a29e-11e1-8e4d-12313d1f7406", "https://www.kyivpost.com/russia/putin-using-three-body-doubles-ukraines-intelligence-chief-claims.html", "https://worldoil.com/news/2022/12/6/saudi-arabia-invites-china-s-xi-to-form-energy-partnerships/", "https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/10/26/russias-elite-begins-to-ponder-a-putinless-future"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2079 |
<p>Amazon is facing continued antitrust scrutiny in 2021, and there have been calls for it, among other things, to spin off its cloud computing platform, AWS (<a href="https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2021/06/28/the-prime-effect-inside-amazon-web-services" target="_blank">WBUR</a>, <a href="https://www.protocol.com/enterprise/aws-amazon-cloud-antitrust" target="_blank">Protocol</a>, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/andy-jassy-aws-amazon-spin-off-break-up-tim-bray-2021-2" target="_blank">Business Insider</a>, <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spinoff.asp" target="_blank">Investopedia</a>). The date when the spinoff would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? 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255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-01-01 | Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)? | 2021-07-21 | [["2021-07-21", 1.0], ["2021-07-21", 0.5], ["2021-07-21", 0.33666666666666667], ["2021-07-21", 0.2525], ["2021-07-21", 0.222], ["2021-07-21", 0.3516666666666667], ["2021-07-21", 0.30857142857142855], ["2021-07-21", 0.27625], ["2021-07-21", 0.24555555555555555], ["2021-07-21", 0.222], ["2021-07-22", 0.122], ["2021-07-22", 0.132], ["2021-07-22", 0.132], ["2021-07-22", 0.135], ["2021-07-22", 0.126], ["2021-07-23", 0.046], ["2021-07-23", 0.046], ["2021-07-23", 0.061], ["2021-07-23", 0.061], ["2021-07-23", 0.06], ["2021-07-23", 0.061], ["2021-07-23", 0.051], ["2021-07-23", 0.055], ["2021-07-23", 0.102], ["2021-07-23", 0.102], ["2021-07-23", 0.09363636363636364], ["2021-07-24", 0.07727272727272727], ["2021-07-24", 0.07363636363636364], ["2021-07-24", 0.07166666666666667], 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"https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/24/former-amazon-senior-engineer-calls-for-aws-spinoff.html", "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872421000028/amzn-20210930.htm#i938dbbcfcf0645268507d22b13fb8f8e_76", "https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/11/aws-ceo-we-would-follow-the-law-if-regulators-demand-amazon-spin-out.html", "https://etfdb.com/history-of-the-s-and-p-500/#2003", "https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/30/3-reasons-amazon-should-consider-spinning-off-aws/", "https://www.investopedia.com/how-amazon-makes-money-4587523", "https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/pt/ip_19_4291", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breakup_of_the_Bell_System", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Microsoft_Corp", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1189328", "https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/20/technology/antitrust-case-google-facebook.html", "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/29/aws-earnings-q1-2021.html", "https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/exclusive-amazon-seeking-settle-eu-antitrust-investigations-sources-say-2021-11-09/", "https://etfdb.com/history-of-the-s-and-p-500/#1990"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-11-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2096 |
<p>With COVID-19 cases increasing, Mayor Bill de Blasio announced new mandates for proof of COVID-19 vaccination in order to use many indoor locations but stopped short of imposing a new mask mandate (<a href="https://www1.nyc.gov/office-of-the-mayor/news/539-21/transcript-mayor-de-blasio-holds-media-availability" target="_blank">NYC.gov</a>, <a href="https://nypost.com/2021/08/03/nyc-to-mandate-proof-of-vaccination-for-many-indoor-settings/" target="_blank">NY Post</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/02/us/nyc-mask-mandate/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page" target="_blank">NYC.gov - COVID-19 Page</a>). The question would close upon a mandate taking effect. A mandate with specific exceptions would count, and a mandate would not have to cover the whole of New York City to count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-11-01 | Before 1 November 2021, will a new government mask mandate for individuals fully vaccinated for COVID-19 that includes indoor restaurants and/or retail establishments be imposed on New York City? | 2021-08-06 | [["2021-08-06", 1.0], ["2021-08-06", 0.875], ["2021-08-06", 1.0], ["2021-08-06", 0.92], ["2021-08-06", 0.98], ["2021-08-06", 1.0], ["2021-08-06", 1.0], ["2021-08-06", 1.0], ["2021-08-06", 1.0], ["2021-08-07", 1.0], ["2021-08-07", 1.0], ["2021-08-07", 1.0], ["2021-08-07", 1.0], ["2021-08-07", 1.0], ["2021-08-07", 1.0], ["2021-08-07", 1.0], ["2021-08-07", 1.0], ["2021-08-07", 1.0], ["2021-08-07", 1.0], ["2021-08-07", 1.0], ["2021-08-07", 1.0], ["2021-08-07", 1.0], ["2021-08-08", 1.0], ["2021-08-08", 1.0], ["2021-08-08", 1.0], ["2021-08-08", 1.0], ["2021-08-08", 1.0], ["2021-08-08", 0.98], ["2021-08-08", 0.96], ["2021-08-09", 0.93], ["2021-08-09", 0.9], ["2021-08-09", 0.9], ["2021-08-09", 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["2021-09-13", 0.25], ["2021-09-13", 0.25], ["2021-09-13", 0.25], ["2021-09-13", 0.25], ["2021-09-14", 0.25], ["2021-09-15", 0.25], ["2021-09-15", 0.25], ["2021-09-15", 0.25], ["2021-09-15", 0.25], ["2021-09-15", 0.25], ["2021-09-15", 0.2], ["2021-09-15", 0.2], ["2021-09-16", 0.2], ["2021-09-16", 0.19], ["2021-09-16", 0.19], ["2021-09-16", 0.19], ["2021-09-16", 0.19], ["2021-09-16", 0.19], ["2021-09-16", 0.18], ["2021-09-17", 0.175], ["2021-09-17", 0.175], ["2021-09-17", 0.175], ["2021-09-17", 0.165], ["2021-09-17", 0.16], ["2021-09-17", 0.16], ["2021-09-17", 0.16], ["2021-09-18", 0.155], ["2021-09-18", 0.155], ["2021-09-19", 0.155], ["2021-09-19", 0.155], ["2021-09-19", 0.155], ["2021-09-19", 0.155], ["2021-09-19", 0.155], ["2021-09-20", 0.155], ["2021-09-20", 0.15], ["2021-09-20", 0.15], ["2021-09-20", 0.15], ["2021-09-20", 0.15], ["2021-09-20", 0.15], ["2021-09-20", 0.15], ["2021-09-21", 0.15], ["2021-09-21", 0.15], ["2021-09-21", 0.15], ["2021-09-21", 0.15], ["2021-09-21", 0.15], 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0.01], ["2021-10-19", 0.01], ["2021-10-19", 0.01], ["2021-10-19", 0.01], ["2021-10-19", 0.01], ["2021-10-19", 0.01], ["2021-10-19", 0.005], ["2021-10-19", 0.0], ["2021-10-20", 0.0], ["2021-10-20", 0.0], ["2021-10-20", 0.0], ["2021-10-21", 0.0], ["2021-10-22", 0.0], ["2021-10-22", 0.0], ["2021-10-22", 0.0], ["2021-10-24", 0.0], ["2021-10-25", 0.0], ["2021-10-25", 0.0], ["2021-10-26", 0.0], ["2021-10-26", 0.0], ["2021-10-26", 0.0], ["2021-10-27", 0.0], ["2021-10-27", 0.0], ["2021-10-28", 0.0], ["2021-10-29", 0.0], ["2021-10-30", 0.0], ["2021-10-30", 0.0], ["2021-10-31", 0.0], ["2021-11-01", 0.0]] | ["https://news.yahoo.com/over-2-000-flights-cancelled-163346664.html?ncid=twitter_yahoonewst_sjwumo1bpf4&guccounter=1", "https://scitechdaily.com/active-covid-19-infection-by-at-least-three-virus-variants-detected-in-wild-deer-in-6-ohio-locations/", "https://covidactnow.org/us/metro/new-york-city-newark-jersey-city_ny-nj-pa/?s=23731285", "https://covidactnow.org/us/metro/new-york-city-newark-jersey-city_ny-nj-pa/?s=22191145", "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html", "https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data-trends.page#epicurve", "https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-goals.page", "https://www1.nyc.gov/office-of-the-mayor/news/225-001/emergency-executive-order-225", "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-021-00498-6?utm_campaign=SRBM_AWA_YM01_GL_41422_TrendMD_2021Q3_MLSJP&utm_content=null&utm_medium=cpc&utm_source=trendmd", "http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/doi/10.46234/ccdcw2021.210?utm_source=TrendMD&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=China_CDC_Weekly_TrendMD_1", "https://gothamist.com/news/hochul-orders-statewide-mask-mandate-inside-all-new-york-schools", "https://www.google.com/search?q=coronavirus+statistics+new+york+city&ei=qoctYaHoNL3l5NoP7Z2c4AU&oq=coronavirus+statistics+new+york+ci&gs_lcp=Cgdnd3Mtd2l6EAMYADIFCAAQgAQyBggAEBYQHjIGCAAQFhAeMgUIABCGAzIFCAAQhgMyBQgAEIYDOgcIABBHELADOgcIABCwAxBDOgsIABCABBCxAxCDAUoECEEYAFD9sgJYqNECYJDbAmgCcAJ4AIABdYgB1QmSAQM5LjSYAQCgAQHIAQrAAQE&sclient=gws-wiz", "https://poets.org/poem/without", "https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page#daily", "https://apnews.com/article/health-education-coronavirus-pandemic-676f2a2c63b4136360f8ea3682f48287", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/22/nyregion/omicron-nyc-spread.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1319806", "https://apnews.com/article/lifestyle-business-health-coronavirus-pandemic-97863fa563eadaad177e0ccba8000cb4", "https://www.kpbs.org/news/2021/jul/26/san-diego-county-will-not-reinstate-mask-mandates-/", "https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/politics/2021/08/24/hochul-address", "https://www.wired.com/story/the-world-is-messy-idealizations-make-the-physics-simple/", "https://covidactnow.org/us/metro/new-york-city-newark-jersey-city_ny-nj-pa/?s=22851206", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-20/nyc-returns-to-hosting-un-week-as-new-yorkers-fear-covid-spike?srnd=premium&sref=i2Bc5OtW", "https://sanjosespotlight.com/masks-will-be-required-indoors-in-santa-clara-county/", "https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/09/03/covid-cases-dr-scott-gottlieb-says-northeast-has-yet-to-see-true-delta-wave.html"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2924 | <p>As the Federal Reserve increases interest rates to combat inflation, there are concerns whether the US will be pushed into recession (<a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2023/06/16/when-will-the-fed-cut-interest-rates-2023/70330336007/" target="_blank">USA Today</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-interest-rate-hike-pause-consumers-d44a6f58eb03ec5edeff78294a167053" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/27/imf-gopinath-central-banks-will-have-to-hold-rates-high-for-much-longer-.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>). Conditional announcements (e.g., if the labor market deteriorates, if inflation falls) would not count. The last time the Federal Reserve announced a cut to the US federal funds rate was 15 March 2020 (<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200315a.htm" target="_blank">Federal Reserve</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Before 21 March 2024, will the Federal Reserve announce a cut in the US federal funds rate? | 2023-06-30 | [["2023-06-30", 0.01], ["2023-06-30", 0.405], ["2023-06-30", 0.3433], ["2023-06-30", 0.4325], ["2023-06-30", 0.486], ["2023-06-30", 0.5133], ["2023-06-30", 0.5829], ["2023-06-30", 0.535], ["2023-07-01", 0.5278], ["2023-07-01", 0.53], ["2023-07-01", 0.482], 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0.3523], ["2024-01-06", 0.3458], ["2024-01-06", 0.3484], ["2024-01-07", 0.3455], ["2024-01-07", 0.3581], ["2024-01-08", 0.3584], ["2024-01-08", 0.3575], ["2024-01-08", 0.3528], ["2024-01-08", 0.3263], ["2024-01-10", 0.3185], ["2024-01-10", 0.3161], ["2024-01-11", 0.3161], ["2024-01-11", 0.3142], ["2024-01-11", 0.3224], ["2024-01-11", 0.3179], ["2024-01-11", 0.3148], ["2024-01-11", 0.3088], ["2024-01-12", 0.3042], ["2024-01-12", 0.29], ["2024-01-12", 0.2874], ["2024-01-12", 0.2868], ["2024-01-12", 0.2868]] | ["https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-17/pimco-s-clarida-says-market-bets-on-us-march-rate-cut-make-sense#xj4y7vzkg", "https://kalshi.com/markets/ratecut/federal-reserve-rate-cut#ratecut-23dec31", "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm", "https://finance.yahoo.com/video/why-fed-may-not-wait-171807610.html", "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20230614.htm", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/long-variable-lags-before-fed-cuts-rates-2023-08-07/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-20/fed-seen-hiking-final-time-to-a-22-year-peak-in-economist-survey", "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20230920.htm", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-11/fed-s-mester-says-march-is-probably-too-early-for-a-rate-cut", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-18/economists-lift-us-growth-forecasts-see-fed-higher-for-longer", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/feds-williams-pushes-back-market-expectations-rate-cuts-2023-12-15/", "https://seekingalpha.com/news/4004544-nasdaq-sp500-dow-jones-stock-market", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/traders-see-no-more-fed-rate-increases-cuts-start-may-2023-11-14/", "https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/26/low-fed-interest-rates-reshaped-the-us-economy-heres-whats-next.html", "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm", "https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/interest-rates-cut-wont-happen-anytime-soon-federal-reserve-inflation-2023-11", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-business-activity-growth-slows-services-soften-2023-07-24/", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/traders-see-fading-chances-of-fed-rate-hike-bet-earlier-rate-cut-2023-11-03/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-13/goldman-pencils-in-first-fed-rate-cut-for-second-quarter-of-2024#xj4y7vzkg", "https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/07/28/pce-inflation-june-2023-.html", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/higher-for-longer-rates-regime-pressures-us-recession-trades-2023-08-16/", "https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/continuing-jobless-claims", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-hawks-doves-centrists-how-us-central-bankers-views-are-changing-2023-12-01/", "https://www.tradingsat.com/actualites/marches-financiers/marche-la-bce-maintiendra-ses-taux-a-4-jusqu-a-mi-2024-indiquent-des-economistes-1093439.html"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | 2021-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1627 |
<p>With power purchasing contracts for the fifth phase already complete, development of the world's largest solar park of its kind continues apace (<a href="https://www.arabianindustry.com/utilities/news/2020/apr/29/dewa-signs-power-purchase-agreement-for-900mw-5th-phase-of-the-mohammed-bin-rashid-al-maktoum-solar-park-6375720/" target="_blank">Arabian Industry</a>). The outcome will be determined using information reported by the Dubai or UAE governments and verifiable private sector announcements (<a href="https://www.dewa.gov.ae/en/about-us/media-publications/latest-news/2019/03/mohammed-bin-rashid-al-maktoum-solar-park" target="_blank">Dubai Electricity & Water Authority</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-01-02 | Will phase 4 of the HH Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Solar Energy Park be operational before 1 January 2021? | 2020-05-21 | [["2020-05-21", 0.5], ["2020-05-21", 0.6], ["2020-05-21", 0.7], ["2020-05-21", 0.725], ["2020-05-21", 0.735], ["2020-05-21", 0.77], ["2020-05-21", 0.735], ["2020-05-22", 0.77], ["2020-05-22", 0.735], ["2020-05-22", 0.77], ["2020-05-22", 0.77], ["2020-05-22", 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["2020-11-07", 0.3], ["2020-11-08", 0.3], ["2020-11-08", 0.3], ["2020-11-09", 0.3], ["2020-11-10", 0.3], ["2020-11-13", 0.27], ["2020-11-13", 0.24], ["2020-11-14", 0.23], ["2020-11-16", 0.185], ["2020-11-17", 0.185], ["2020-11-17", 0.15], ["2020-11-20", 0.15], ["2020-11-20", 0.125], ["2020-11-21", 0.09], ["2020-11-21", 0.065], ["2020-11-21", 0.055], ["2020-11-24", 0.05], ["2020-11-24", 0.05], ["2020-11-25", 0.05], ["2020-11-26", 0.045], ["2020-11-26", 0.04], ["2020-11-27", 0.04], ["2020-11-27", 0.035], ["2020-11-28", 0.035], ["2020-11-28", 0.03], ["2020-11-30", 0.025], ["2020-12-01", 0.015], ["2020-12-01", 0.015], ["2020-12-02", 0.015], ["2020-12-02", 0.015], ["2020-12-03", 0.015], ["2020-12-03", 0.01], ["2020-12-03", 0.01], ["2020-12-05", 0.01], ["2020-12-06", 0.005], ["2020-12-06", 0.0], ["2020-12-09", 0.0], ["2020-12-10", 0.0], ["2020-12-10", 0.0], ["2020-12-11", 0.0], ["2020-12-17", 0.0], ["2020-12-19", 0.0], ["2020-12-20", 0.0], ["2020-12-20", 0.0], ["2020-12-22", 0.0], ["2020-12-24", 0.0], ["2020-12-25", 0.0], ["2020-12-25", 0.0], ["2020-12-27", 0.0], ["2020-12-27", 0.0], ["2020-12-28", 0.0], ["2020-12-28", 0.0], ["2020-12-29", 0.0], ["2020-12-30", 0.0], ["2021-01-01", 0.0]] | ["https://www.constructionweekonline.com/projects-and-tenders/269080-mbr-solar-parks-800mw-phase-3-innovation-centre-begin-operations", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohammed_bin_Rashid_Al_Maktoum_Solar_Park#Phase_by_phase_project_execution_table", "https://www.acwapower.com/Flip/Noor-Energy-1-27-5-19-Compressed/index.html", "https://www.constructionweekonline.com/projects-and-tenders/269500-mbr-solar-parks-phase-3-provides-clean-energy-to-240000-homes"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-07-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659 |
<p>Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs (<a href="https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation" target="_blank">The Hill</a>, <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf" target="_blank">Federation of American Scientists</a>, <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388" target="_blank">Congress.gov (House Bill)</a>, <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885" target="_blank">Congress.gov (Senate Bill)</a>). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a "bump in the road" (<a href="https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic" target="_blank">The Hill</a>, <a href="https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/" target="_blank">Legal Reader</a>). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial.</p><p>This question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided.<br></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>
| 2023-01-09 | Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law? | 2020-06-15 | [["2020-06-16", 0.8], ["2020-06-16", 0.575], ["2020-06-16", 0.7], ["2020-06-16", 0.625], ["2020-06-16", 0.7], ["2020-06-16", 0.7], ["2020-06-16", 0.71], ["2020-06-16", 0.7], ["2020-06-16", 0.675], ["2020-06-16", 0.7], ["2020-06-16", 0.675], ["2020-06-16", 0.675], ["2020-06-16", 0.675], ["2020-06-16", 0.6], ["2020-06-16", 0.575], ["2020-06-16", 0.55], ["2020-06-16", 0.55], ["2020-06-17", 0.565], ["2020-06-17", 0.59], ["2020-06-17", 0.59], ["2020-06-17", 0.625], ["2020-06-17", 0.625], ["2020-06-17", 0.625], ["2020-06-17", 0.625], ["2020-06-17", 0.615], ["2020-06-17", 0.665], ["2020-06-17", 0.68], ["2020-06-17", 0.68], ["2020-06-17", 0.715], ["2020-06-17", 0.715], ["2020-06-17", 0.75], ["2020-06-17", 0.75], ["2020-06-17", 0.75], ["2020-06-17", 0.75], ["2020-06-17", 0.75], ["2020-06-18", 0.75], ["2020-06-18", 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"https://www.irishtimes.com/polopoly_fs/1.3552462.1530623802!/image/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/landscape_620/image.jpg", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-self-driving-congress/congress-will-try-again-in-2021-on-self-driving-car-reform-idUSKCN26E2RA", "https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2020/12/03/592510.htm", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/exclusive-two-us-senators-make-new-push-advance-self-driving-cars-2021-04-22/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-03-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2649 |
<p>The BC health system is already grappling with increases in respiratory diseases, though COVID-19 cases have thus far remained low as winter approaches (<a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/b-c-children-s-emergency-overflow-activated-1.6662311" target="_blank">CBC</a>, <a href="https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/covid-19-bc-masking-advisable-but-not-required-yet-bonnie-henry" target="_blank">Vancouver Sun</a>). The question will be suspended on 28 February 2023 if still open and the outcome determined using data as first reported by the "BC COVID-19 Dashboard" (<a href="http://www.bccdc.ca/health-professionals/data-reports/respiratory-diseases" target="_blank">BC Centre for Disease Control</a>, click "COVID-19 Dashboard"). The "7-day Moving Avg" data can be viewed in the chart under "B.C. Cases Reported to Public Health" by hovering your cursor over the line for the average. You may also see daily numbers by hovering your cursor over the daily columns more easily by narrowing the date range with the slider immediately above the chart. As of 29 November 2022, the 7-day moving average of reported COVID-19 cases on 4 November 2022 was 57.6.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-03-09 | Between 1 December 2022 and 28 February 2023, will the 7-day moving average of COVID-19 reported cases in British Columbia (BC) reach or exceed 1,000, according to the BC Center for Disease Control? | 2022-11-29 | [["2022-11-29", 0.17], ["2022-11-30", 0.135], ["2022-11-30", 0.2567], ["2022-11-30", 0.1925], ["2022-12-01", 0.18], ["2022-12-01", 0.184], ["2022-12-02", 0.1533], ["2022-12-02", 0.2743], ["2022-12-02", 0.24], ["2022-12-02", 0.2233], ["2022-12-03", 0.206], ["2022-12-04", 0.201], ["2022-12-06", 0.231], ["2022-12-06", 0.242], ["2022-12-06", 0.24], ["2022-12-06", 0.228], ["2022-12-07", 0.216], ["2022-12-10", 0.217], ["2022-12-11", 0.317], ["2022-12-12", 0.237], ["2022-12-13", 0.237], ["2022-12-17", 0.239], ["2022-12-19", 0.236], ["2022-12-22", 0.336], ["2022-12-22", 0.236], ["2022-12-24", 0.267], ["2022-12-27", 0.267], ["2022-12-28", 0.362], ["2022-12-30", 0.372], ["2023-01-02", 0.311], ["2023-01-03", 0.313], ["2023-01-05", 0.404], ["2023-01-06", 0.399], ["2023-01-06", 0.329], ["2023-01-06", 0.324], ["2023-01-07", 0.33], ["2023-01-11", 0.328], ["2023-01-12", 0.322], ["2023-01-12", 0.307], ["2023-01-14", 0.307], ["2023-01-14", 0.297], ["2023-01-16", 0.294], ["2023-01-17", 0.29], ["2023-01-19", 0.28], ["2023-01-20", 0.23], ["2023-01-23", 0.215], ["2023-01-25", 0.211], ["2023-01-25", 0.192], ["2023-01-27", 0.182], ["2023-01-28", 0.182], ["2023-01-28", 0.18], ["2023-01-30", 0.169], ["2023-02-03", 0.069], ["2023-02-03", 0.065], ["2023-02-04", 0.06], ["2023-02-04", 0.051], ["2023-02-04", 0.042], ["2023-02-04", 0.042], ["2023-02-04", 0.044], ["2023-02-05", 0.044], ["2023-02-06", 0.03], ["2023-02-07", 0.027], ["2023-02-12", 0.026], ["2023-02-13", 0.026], ["2023-02-13", 0.026], ["2023-02-14", 0.025], ["2023-02-16", 0.024], ["2023-02-18", 0.011], ["2023-02-19", 0.011], ["2023-02-20", 0.01], ["2023-02-21", 0.01], ["2023-02-21", 0.008], ["2023-02-22", 0.008], ["2023-02-23", 0.008], ["2023-02-25", 0.008], ["2023-02-26", 0.008], ["2023-02-28", 0.007], ["2023-03-01", 0.007]] | ["https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/no-surge-expected-global-covid-cases-this-winter-ihme-report-2022-10-25/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1498 |
<p>Prime Minister Netanyahu faces an array of challenges, including criminal corruption charges and the third Knesset election within a year scheduled for 2 March 2020 (<a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/attorney-general-rules-netanyahu-can-remain-pm-in-transition-government/" target="_blank">Times of Israel</a>, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/date-set-for-third-israeli-election-in-less-than-a-year-20191212-p53jc4.html)." target="_blank">Sydney Morning Herald</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>
| 2021-01-01 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be the prime minister of Israel before 1 January 2021? | 2020-01-17 | [["2020-01-18", 0.72], ["2020-01-18", 0.57], ["2020-01-19", 0.505], ["2020-01-19", 0.535], ["2020-01-19", 0.58], ["2020-01-19", 0.6], ["2020-01-19", 0.575], ["2020-01-19", 0.6], ["2020-01-19", 0.55], ["2020-01-19", 0.6], ["2020-01-19", 0.5], ["2020-01-19", 0.5], ["2020-01-19", 0.465], ["2020-01-19", 0.525], ["2020-01-19", 0.625], ["2020-01-19", 0.6], ["2020-01-19", 0.6], ["2020-01-19", 0.65], ["2020-01-19", 0.65], ["2020-01-19", 0.65], ["2020-01-19", 0.65], ["2020-01-19", 0.6], ["2020-01-19", 0.6], ["2020-01-19", 0.6], ["2020-01-19", 0.6], ["2020-01-19", 0.6], ["2020-01-19", 0.6], ["2020-01-19", 0.6], ["2020-01-19", 0.6], ["2020-01-19", 0.6], ["2020-01-19", 0.6], ["2020-01-19", 0.6], ["2020-01-19", 0.6], ["2020-01-19", 0.6], ["2020-01-19", 0.65], ["2020-01-19", 0.65], ["2020-01-19", 0.65], ["2020-01-19", 0.65], ["2020-01-19", 0.65], ["2020-01-19", 0.65], ["2020-01-19", 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"https://www.timesofisrael.com/gantz-says-hes-done-believing-netanyahu-insists-hes-still-best-alternative/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/israel-going-to-new-elections/2020/12/22/ac4ed9dc-4418-11eb-ac2a-3ac0f2b8ceeb_story.html", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55145115", "https://us.cnn.com/2020/12/22/middleeast/israel-government-collapses-intl/index.html", "https://www.france24.com/en/20200719-netanyahu-corruption-trial-to-resume-in-january-2021-amid-israeli-anger-over-covid-19", "https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/22/world/middleeast/israel-election-netanyahu.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/22/israel-barrels-towards-fourth-election-within-two-years", "https://apnews.com/article/israel-national-elections-elections-benjamin-netanyahu-national-budgets-35630fa4eee1679fe0265bffdb7181cc"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-10-28 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2364 |
<p>Parag Agrawal replaced Twitter founder Jack Dorsey as the company's CEO in November 2021 and is now facing a potential takeover bid from Elon Musk (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/29/twitter-ceo-jack-dorsey-is-expected-to-step-down-sources-say.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/04/11/1091969075/elon-musk-will-not-join-twitter-board" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://qz.com/2155546/twitter-founder-jack-dorsey-tweet-about-elon-musks-takeover-bid/" target="_blank">Quartz</a>). The addition of a co-CEO would count, and the date Agrawal would cease to be CEO would be immaterial.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2022-10-28 | Before 1 November 2022, will Twitter announce that Parag Agrawal has ceased or will cease to be the company's sole CEO? | 2022-04-22 | [["2022-04-22", 0.615], ["2022-04-22", 0.495], ["2022-04-23", 0.355], ["2022-04-23", 0.33714285714285713], ["2022-04-23", 0.4011111111111111], ["2022-04-23", 0.391], ["2022-04-23", 0.436], ["2022-04-23", 0.459], ["2022-04-24", 0.468], ["2022-04-24", 0.468], ["2022-04-25", 0.51], ["2022-04-25", 0.479], ["2022-04-25", 0.479], ["2022-04-25", 0.608], ["2022-04-25", 0.568], ["2022-04-25", 0.556], ["2022-04-25", 0.597], ["2022-04-25", 0.6890909090909091], ["2022-04-25", 0.7018181818181818], ["2022-04-25", 0.6916666666666667], ["2022-04-25", 0.6933333333333334], ["2022-04-25", 0.7425], ["2022-04-25", 0.7061538461538461], ["2022-04-25", 0.7707692307692308], ["2022-04-25", 0.7746153846153846], ["2022-04-25", 0.7692857142857142], ["2022-04-26", 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"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3895803-twitter-inches-higher-amid-report-musk-will-address-staff-friday", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/elon-musk-seeks-stay-twitter-litigation-oct-28-deal-close-2022-10-06/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1532568", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2212-when-will-the-us-lift-the-suspension-of-entry-for-noncitizens-who-have-been-present-in-south-africa-during-the-14-day-period-preceding-their-entry-or-attempted-entry-into-the-us", "https://twitter.com/elonmusk", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/twitter-plans-close-musk-deal-previously-agreed-terms-jpmorgan-exec-2022-10-26/", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2410-will-elon-musk-s-acquisition-of-twitter-close-before-1-january-2023", "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/twitter-calls-musks-latest-proposal-invitation-to-further-mischief-and-delay-220855638.html", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/27/elon-musk-now-in-charge-of-twitter-ceo-and-cfo-have-left-sources-say.html", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/10/20/musk-twitter-acquisition-staff-cuts/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-04/musk-proposes-to-proceed-with-twitter-deal-at-54-20-a-share", "https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/sep/18/whistleblower-elon-musk-twitter", "https://www.npr.org/2022/10/07/1127337447/heres-what-elon-musk-will-likely-do-with-twitter-if-he-buys-it", "https://qz.com/2155546/twitter-founder-jack-dorsey-tweet-about-elon-musks-takeover-bid", "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418091/000110465922045641/tm2212748d1_sc13da.htm#ex-b_001", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/06/musk-seeks-to-stop-oct-17-trial-date-to-close-twitter-deal-on-original-terms.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/oct/08/banks-loss-elon-musk-twitter-takeover", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/elon-musk-tweets-he-is-twitters-headquarters-2022-10-26/", "https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-62894600", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-04/musk-proposes-to-proceed-with-twitter-deal-at-54-20-a-share?srnd=premium", "https://www.reuters.com/technology/twitter-opposes-elon-musk-motion-halt-litigation-2022-10-06/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1532563", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/04/twitter-shares-halted-on-report-that-musk-plans-to-go-through-with-deal-at-54point20-a-share.html"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2022-10-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2090 |
<p>As businesses and financial institutions explore ways to integrate cryptocurrencies (cryptos) into their operations, there are conflicting reports about whether Amazon.com is preparing to accept them for its transactions (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/23/amazon-is-hiring-a-digital-currency-and-blockchain-expert.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.cityam.com/amazon-definitely-lining-up-bitcoin-payments-and-token-confirms-insider/" target="_blank">City A.M.</a>, <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/amazon-no-we-have-no-plans-to-accept-bitcoin-payments" target="_blank">Coindesk</a>). The acceptance of stablecoins would count, but permitting crypto transactions solely for the exchange of currency, crypto, and other digital assets (e.g., NFTs) would not count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>
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0.0349], ["2022-09-18", 0.0339], ["2022-09-19", 0.0343], ["2022-09-19", 0.0319], ["2022-09-20", 0.0313], ["2022-09-21", 0.0305], ["2022-09-21", 0.0302], ["2022-09-21", 0.0248], ["2022-09-22", 0.025], ["2022-09-23", 0.024], ["2022-09-23", 0.0233], ["2022-09-23", 0.023], ["2022-09-24", 0.0234], ["2022-09-24", 0.0228], ["2022-09-25", 0.0227], ["2022-09-25", 0.0209], ["2022-09-25", 0.0207], ["2022-09-26", 0.0179], ["2022-09-26", 0.0177], ["2022-09-27", 0.0178], ["2022-09-27", 0.018], ["2022-09-27", 0.0182], ["2022-09-28", 0.0181], ["2022-09-28", 0.0179], ["2022-09-28", 0.0173], ["2022-09-28", 0.0175], ["2022-09-29", 0.0174], ["2022-09-29", 0.0177], ["2022-09-30", 0.017], ["2022-09-30", 0.0164], ["2022-09-30", 0.0159], ["2022-09-30", 0.0157], ["2022-09-30", 0.0157], ["2022-09-30", 0.0155], ["2022-10-01", 0.0152], ["2022-10-01", 0.0152]] | ["https://www.coindesk.com/business/2021/10/30/amazon-web-services-looks-to-drive-crypto-settlement-and-custody-to-the-cloud/", "https://www.paymentscardsandmobile.com/cryptocurrency-acceptance-digital-currencies-hit-the-mainstream/#:~:text=As%20is%20widely%20known%2C%20PayPal%20and%20Square%20have,have%20also%20recently%20confirmed%20they%20will%20accept%20crypto", "https://bitpay.com/blog/use-bitcoin-on-amazon-other-crypto-to-buy-whatever-you-want/", "https://www.protocol.com/bitcoin-jumps-on-amazon-job", "https://thepaypers.com/payments-general/worldpay-to-offer-direct-usdc-settlement--1255600", "https://www.investopedia.com/articles/company-insights/090216/when-will-amazon-accept-bitcoin-amzn.asp", "https://www.fool.com/the-ascent/cryptocurrency/articles/will-amazon-accept-bitcoin-payments/", "https://youtu.be/JLAYmutyPGY?t=869", "https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-outlook-volatility-confidence-institutional-investors-experts-cryptocurrencies-btc-ether-2022-1", "https://www.ndtv.com/business/cryptocurrency-as-a-payment-option-not-anytime-soon-says-amazons-ceo-2893141", "https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1518396875547815936", "https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/bitcoin-ban-full-list-of-countries-that-have-banned-cryptocurrencies/ar-AAR40Oq?ocid=uxbndlbing", "https://fortune.com/2021/07/23/amazon-crypto-coin-job-posting-cryptocurrency-blockchain-product-lead-payments/", "https://ecommercenews.eu/amazon-accepts-bitcoin-by-the-end-of-2021/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mKcKCl4rEWA", "https://www.reuters.com/technology/amazon-ceo-says-not-adding-cryptocurrency-payment-option-anytime-soon-cnbc-2022-04-14/", "https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/amazon-could-be-the-first-among-faamg-to-launch-a-crypto-token-849008", "https://www.theverge.com/2021/11/17/22786966/amazon-visa-credit-card-ban-alternatives-fees", "https://www.inc.com/amrita-khalid/cryptocurrency-bitcoin-payments.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-09/bitcoin-s-volatility-versus-gold-implies-38-000-value-jpmorgan", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2021-07-30/amazon-has-1-55-trillion-reasons-to-start-accepting-crypto", "https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEGTtElGl-UYz-al1HS4AzxwqFwgEKg8IACoHCAowjuuKAzCWrzww9oAY?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/what-the-first-bitcoin-futures-exchange-traded-fund-means-for-the-cryptocurrency-industry/ar-AAPTA1P?ocid=BingNewsSearch", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/16/walmart-is-quietly-preparing-to-enter-the-metaverse.html"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-05-21 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2320 |
<p>After Boeing's first attempt to get its new spacecraft to dock with the ISS failed, the company is planning another attempt in May 2022 (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/several-ambitious-space-missions-will-blast-off-in-2022" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://spaceflightnow.com/2022/03/11/boeing-starliner-test-flight-next-on-ulas-launch-schedule/" target="_blank">Spaceflight Now</a>, <a href="https://www.space.com/boeing-starliner-oft-2-launching-may-2022" target="_blank">Space</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-05-21 | Will a Boeing Starliner spacecraft successfully dock with the International Space Station (ISS) before 15 June 2022? | 2022-03-17 | [["2022-03-18", 0.01], ["2022-03-18", 0.02], ["2022-03-18", 0.03], ["2022-03-18", 0.265], ["2022-03-18", 0.265], ["2022-03-18", 0.5], ["2022-03-19", 0.425], ["2022-03-19", 0.5], ["2022-03-19", 0.425], ["2022-03-19", 0.35], ["2022-03-19", 0.34], ["2022-03-19", 0.425], ["2022-03-19", 0.4], ["2022-03-19", 0.375], ["2022-03-19", 0.4], ["2022-03-19", 0.45], ["2022-03-20", 0.4], ["2022-03-20", 0.4], ["2022-03-20", 0.4], ["2022-03-20", 0.375], ["2022-03-20", 0.4], ["2022-03-20", 0.4], ["2022-03-21", 0.4], ["2022-03-21", 0.4], ["2022-03-21", 0.35], ["2022-03-21", 0.375], ["2022-03-21", 0.35], ["2022-03-21", 0.34], ["2022-03-22", 0.33], ["2022-03-22", 0.33], ["2022-03-22", 0.325], ["2022-03-22", 0.32], ["2022-03-22", 0.27], ["2022-03-22", 0.2], 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"https://www.kennedyspacecenter.com/launches-and-events/events-calendar/2022/may/rocket-launch-commercial-uncrewed-boeing-2", "https://spacenews.com/starliner-suffers-off-nominal-orbital-insertion-after-launch/", "https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/coverage-set-for-nasa-s-boeing-oft-2-briefings-events-broadcast", "https://blog.ulalaunch.com/blog/oft-2-atlas-v-rocket-assembled-to-launch-boeings-starliner", "https://www.ulalaunch.com/missions/next-launch/atlas-v-starliner-oft-2", "https://spacenews.com/boeing-starliner-test-flight-planned-for-spring-2022/", "https://spaceflightnow.com/2022/04/21/ula-begins-stacking-atlas-5-rocket-for-boeings-starliner-test-flight/", "https://starlinerupdates.com/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/02/world/europe/russia-space-station.html", "https://www.cnet.com/science/features/every-major-space-event-in-2022-nasas-moon-mission-spacex-launches-meteor-showers-and-more/", "https://spaceflightnow.com/launch-schedule/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Orbital_Flight_Test_2", "https://spacenews.com/nasa-boeing-ready-for-second-starliner-test-flight/?preview_id=127334", "https://spaceflightnow.com/2022/05/20/starliner-oft-2-rendezvous-mission-status-center/", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/boeings-starliner-capsule-stacked-atop-atlas-v-rocket-ahead-of-crucial-may-19-launch-photos/ar-AAWX3eG", "https://www.24live.co/live/UKx1n?n=3051719342663179092", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gy6iam6NjsU", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YrynA5Klc6Y", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/nasa-is-plotting-its-return-to-europa-and-has-plans-to-slam-into-an-asteroid-all-in-2022/ar-AATzy9S"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2023-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2146 |
<p>Dubai aims to be a leading location in the deployment of autonomous vehicles and has an agreement with Cruise for the deployment of a ride-hailing service by 2023, though testing may start sooner (<a href="https://www.khaleejtimes.com/news/dubai-to-become-first-city-outside-us-to-operate-driverless-vehicles" target="_blank">Khaleej Times</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/12/gm-backed-cruise-to-expand-self-driving-operations-to-dubai-in-2023.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.khaleejtimes.com/news/dubai-eyes-the-future-with-self-driving-cabs" target="_blank">Khaleej Times</a>). Testing must include members of the public as passengers to count. A service that operates along a fixed route (e.g., shuttles) would not count. A service involving back-up drivers present in the vehicle would not count, but a service involving remote back-up operators would count. A qualifying service which requires rider prescreening or registration before use would count, and payment for service is not required.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-01-10 | Before 1 January 2023, will a ride-hailing service open to the public which uses autonomous vehicles be launched and/or tested on public roads in Dubai? | 2021-10-01 | [["2021-10-01", 0.43], ["2021-10-01", 0.475], ["2021-10-01", 0.5166666666666667], ["2021-10-01", 0.55], ["2021-10-01", 0.6625], ["2021-10-01", 0.652], ["2021-10-02", 0.71], ["2021-10-02", 0.7116666666666667], ["2021-10-02", 0.6785714285714286], ["2021-10-03", 0.6625], ["2021-10-03", 0.7], ["2021-10-03", 0.665], ["2021-10-03", 0.722], ["2021-10-03", 0.732], ["2021-10-03", 0.735], ["2021-10-03", 0.665], ["2021-10-03", 0.629], ["2021-10-03", 0.629], ["2021-10-04", 0.549], ["2021-10-04", 0.53], ["2021-10-04", 0.544], ["2021-10-04", 0.544], ["2021-10-05", 0.542], ["2021-10-05", 0.537], ["2021-10-06", 0.489], ["2021-10-06", 0.438], ["2021-10-06", 0.428], ["2021-10-06", 0.503], ["2021-10-07", 0.54], ["2021-10-07", 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0.4007], ["2022-11-28", 0.3897], ["2022-11-28", 0.3676], ["2022-11-29", 0.3503], ["2022-11-29", 0.3228], ["2022-11-30", 0.3138], ["2022-11-30", 0.3138], ["2022-12-03", 0.2966], ["2022-12-06", 0.2897], ["2022-12-07", 0.29], ["2022-12-08", 0.2883], ["2022-12-09", 0.263], ["2022-12-11", 0.2627], ["2022-12-12", 0.2623], ["2022-12-13", 0.2603], ["2022-12-16", 0.26], ["2022-12-19", 0.2597], ["2022-12-19", 0.2413], ["2022-12-22", 0.2335], ["2022-12-25", 0.2029], ["2022-12-25", 0.2029], ["2022-12-26", 0.1819], ["2022-12-26", 0.1763], ["2022-12-28", 0.1763], ["2022-12-30", 0.1681], ["2022-12-30", 0.1553], ["2022-12-31", 0.1506], ["2022-12-31", 0.1806], ["2023-01-01", 0.1806]] | ["https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/04/california-will-allow-cruise-to-give-rides-in-driverless-test-vehicles.html", "https://www.theverge.com/2021/9/30/22702962/cruise-waymo-california-dmv-autonomous-vehicle-permit", "https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/transport/2022/03/31/these-driverless-taxis-will-be-on-dubai-roads-by-2023/", "https://www.wired.com/story/gms-cruise-recalls-self-driving-software-involved-in-june-crash/", "https://www.rta.ae/wps/portal/rta/ae/home/news-and-media/all-news/NewsDetails/rta-cruise-to-operate-two-chevrolet-bolt-evs-to-chart-digital-maps-for-self-driving-vehicles", "https://whatson.ae/2022/10/rte-driverless-taxis-gitex-in-dubai-2022/", "https://www.bbc.com/news/av/technology-63077437", "https://www.khaleejtimes.com/news/transport/5-of-dubai-taxis-fleet-to-be-self-driving-cabs-by-2023", "https://www.rta.ae/links/sdt/sdt-final.pdf", "https://gulfnews.com/uae/transport/dubais-rta-reviews-commercial-operation-of-autonomous-vehicles-1.92245476", "https://assets.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/uk/pdf/2020/07/2020-autonomous-vehicles-readiness-index.pdf", "https://wired.me/gear/the-fast-and-the-curious/", "https://www.rta.ae/wps/portal/rta/ae/home/news-and-media/all-news/NewsDetails/hamdan-bin-mohammed-attends-signing-of-agreement-to-operate-self-driving-taxis-and-ride-hailing-services", "https://www.khaleejtimes.com/transport/uae-6-times-driverless-taxis-buses-have-transported-residents-and-tourists", "https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/30/business/cruise-gm-san-francisco-self-driving/index.html", "https://jalopnik.com/cruise-self-driving-cars-are-still-randomly-stalling-in-1849585847"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-12-30 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2922 |
<p>Attempts to create a bitcoin ETF in the US continue, with asset manager BlackRock making an application with the SEC in June 2023 (<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/blackrock-files-for-a-spot-bitcoin-etf-7547609" target="_blank">Investopedia</a>, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/technology/articles/2023-06-15/blackrock-close-to-filing-for-a-bitcoin-etf-coindesk" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-backed-bitcoin-etfs-174048113.html" target="_blank">Yahoo</a>). ETFs for bitcoin derivatives (e.g., futures) or of firms that have cryptocurrency exposure would not count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>
| 2023-12-30 | Will a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) begin trading on a US exchange before 30 December 2023? | 2023-06-30 | [["2023-06-30", 0.5], ["2023-06-30", 0.275], ["2023-06-30", 0.35], ["2023-06-30", 0.5125], ["2023-07-01", 0.515], ["2023-07-01", 0.5175], ["2023-07-01", 0.444], ["2023-07-01", 0.444], ["2023-07-01", 0.395], ["2023-07-01", 0.3833], ["2023-07-01", 0.3643], ["2023-07-01", 0.3629], ["2023-07-01", 0.36], ["2023-07-01", 0.3163], ["2023-07-02", 0.2811], ["2023-07-02", 0.253], ["2023-07-02", 0.231], ["2023-07-02", 0.2327], ["2023-07-02", 0.2267], ["2023-07-02", 0.2175], ["2023-07-03", 0.2569], ["2023-07-03", 0.2393], ["2023-07-03", 0.2386], ["2023-07-03", 0.2227], ["2023-07-03", 0.2173], ["2023-07-03", 0.254], ["2023-07-03", 0.2506], ["2023-07-03", 0.2413], ["2023-07-04", 0.2067], ["2023-07-04", 0.225], ["2023-07-05", 0.29], ["2023-07-05", 0.29], ["2023-07-06", 0.318], ["2023-07-06", 0.326], ["2023-07-08", 0.315], ["2023-07-08", 0.342], ["2023-07-09", 0.325], 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"https://www.reuters.com/technology/nasdaq-refiles-blackrocks-bitcoin-etf-application-with-sec-2023-07-03/", "https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/bitcoin-tops-$31000-blackrock-lists-ishares-bitcoin-trust:-will-institutional-investors", "https://ca.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/grayscales-bitcoin-etf-triumphs-over-sec-fueling-crypto-market-rally-3092876", "https://www.boerse-online.de/nachrichten/fonds/bitcoin-hammer-etf-auf-bitcoin-genehmigt-kurs-mit-krassen-spruengen-20341241.html", "https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-etf-approval-window-sec-bloomberg-analysts", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gary_Gensler", "https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/whats-stake-grayscales-spot-bitcoin-etf-case-against-sec-2023-08-29/", "https://blockworks.co/news/sec-delays-bitcoin-etfs-valkyrie-blackrock", "https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/66681951/1218533001/grayscale-investments-llc-v-sec/", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2023/07/04/coinbase-suddenly-surges-after-reports-suggest-sec-is-poised-to-make-a-game-changing-decision-that-could-play-havoc-with-the-price-of-bitcoin-ethereum-bnb-and-xrp/?sh=234e2f061633", "https://www.heise.de/downloads/18/4/2/9/4/0/0/2/22-1142-2014527.pdf", "https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/grayscale-wins-lawsuit-against-sec-over-bitcoin-etf-1b305cfa?mod=hp_lead_pos6", "https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1713910892197249122", "https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/bitcoin-tops-%2431000-blackrock-lists-ishares-bitcoin-trust:-will-institutional-investors", "https://www.reuters.com/technology/partnering-with-coinbase-could-hinder-bid-bitcoin-etf-approval-2023-07-13/", "https://www.finanzen.at/nachrichten/devisen/bitcoin-preis-steigt-auf-35-000-dollar-nachdem-bitcoin-etf-ishares-von-blackrock-auf-der-dtcc-website-gelistet-wird-1032731135", "https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/66681951/1218477074/grayscale-investments-llc-v-sec/", "https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/66681951/1218460857/grayscale-investments-llc-v-sec/", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2023/10/10/sec-actively-engaging-with-spot-bitcoin-etf-issuers-signals-high-likelihood-of-year-end-approval/", "https://www.reuters.com/legal/court-set-hear-arguments-grayscales-lawsuit-against-sec-over-bitcoin-fund-2023-03-07/", "https://cointelegraph.com/news/spot-bitcoin-etf-january-approvals-possible-analysts", "https://cryptopotato.com/sec-holds-back-from-appealing-court-decision-on-grayscale-bitcoin-etf-report/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1527 |
<p>The Australian government's response to the bushfires in the country has eroded the standing of the prime minister (<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-05/fire-response-puts-focus-on-scott-morrison-political-judgement/11841152" target="_blank">abc.net.eu</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/feb/11/essential-poll-morrison-still-in-the-doldrums-with-voters-after-bushfires-and-sports-grants" target="_blank">Guardian</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-01-01 | Will Scott Morrison cease to be prime minister of Australia before 1 January 2021? | 2020-02-14 | [["2020-02-14", 0.2], ["2020-02-14", 0.15], ["2020-02-14", 0.26], ["2020-02-14", 0.32], ["2020-02-14", 0.65], ["2020-02-14", 0.575], ["2020-02-14", 0.74], ["2020-02-14", 0.74], ["2020-02-14", 0.615], ["2020-02-14", 0.425], ["2020-02-15", 0.45], ["2020-02-15", 0.275], ["2020-02-15", 0.185], ["2020-02-15", 0.1], ["2020-02-15", 0.17], ["2020-02-15", 0.185], ["2020-02-15", 0.185], ["2020-02-15", 0.2], ["2020-02-15", 0.2], ["2020-02-15", 0.17], ["2020-02-15", 0.185], ["2020-02-15", 0.2], ["2020-02-15", 0.2], ["2020-02-15", 0.245], ["2020-02-16", 0.225], ["2020-02-16", 0.2], ["2020-02-16", 0.2], ["2020-02-16", 0.2], ["2020-02-16", 0.2], ["2020-02-16", 0.2], ["2020-02-16", 0.2], ["2020-02-16", 0.215], ["2020-02-16", 0.25], ["2020-02-17", 0.23], ["2020-02-17", 0.24], ["2020-02-17", 0.2], ["2020-02-17", 0.2], ["2020-02-17", 0.2], ["2020-02-17", 0.2], ["2020-02-17", 0.2], ["2020-02-18", 0.2], ["2020-02-18", 0.22], ["2020-02-18", 0.2], ["2020-02-18", 0.2], ["2020-02-18", 0.2], ["2020-02-18", 0.2], ["2020-02-18", 0.2], ["2020-02-18", 0.2], ["2020-02-19", 0.22], ["2020-02-19", 0.2], ["2020-02-19", 0.21], ["2020-02-19", 0.22], ["2020-02-19", 0.2], ["2020-02-19", 0.19], ["2020-02-19", 0.2], ["2020-02-19", 0.235], ["2020-02-19", 0.25], ["2020-02-19", 0.25], ["2020-02-20", 0.25], 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True | 2022-12-15 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2276 |
<p>The PA is responsible for managing transportation infrastructure in the New York City area, including bridges and tunnels (<a href="https://www.panynj.gov/port-authority/en/about.html" target="_blank">Port Authority</a>, <a href="https://www.panynj.gov/port-authority/en/help-center/faq/bridges-and-tunnels-faq.html" target="_blank">Port Authority - Bridge and Tunnels FAQ</a>, <a href="https://www.syracuse.com/news/2011/08/ny_nj_port_authority_raises_tol.html" target="_blank">Syracuse.com</a>). As of the launch of this question, the tolls for Class 1 vehicles were $11.75 for EZ Pass Off-peak, $13.75 for EZ Pass On-peak, and $16.00 for cash (<a href="https://www.panynj.gov/bridges-tunnels/en/tolls.html" target="_blank">Port Authority - Bridge and Tunnels Tolls</a>). To count, an announced increase must be scheduled to take effect before 1 January 2024.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2022-12-20 | Before 1 January 2023, will the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PA) announce an increase in bridge and/or tunnel tolls for Class 1 vehicles for 2022 or 2023? | 2022-02-18 | [["2022-02-18", 0.6], ["2022-02-18", 0.8], ["2022-02-18", 0.9], ["2022-02-18", 0.95], ["2022-02-19", 1.0], ["2022-02-19", 0.975], ["2022-02-19", 0.98], ["2022-02-19", 1.0], ["2022-02-20", 0.99], ["2022-02-20", 1.0], ["2022-02-21", 0.995], ["2022-02-21", 0.995], ["2022-02-21", 1.0], ["2022-02-22", 0.995], ["2022-02-22", 0.985], ["2022-02-22", 0.985], ["2022-02-22", 0.995], ["2022-02-22", 0.99], ["2022-02-23", 0.99], ["2022-02-23", 0.99], ["2022-02-23", 0.99], ["2022-02-24", 0.985], ["2022-02-24", 0.975], ["2022-02-24", 0.975], ["2022-02-25", 0.975], ["2022-02-25", 0.985], ["2022-02-25", 0.965], ["2022-02-25", 0.95], ["2022-02-25", 0.9], ["2022-02-28", 0.83], ["2022-02-28", 0.83], ["2022-02-28", 0.78], ["2022-02-28", 0.77], ["2022-03-01", 0.76], ["2022-03-01", 0.7], ["2022-03-01", 0.7], ["2022-03-01", 0.7], ["2022-03-01", 0.7], ["2022-03-01", 0.7], ["2022-03-10", 0.7], ["2022-03-10", 0.7], ["2022-03-17", 0.695], ["2022-03-18", 0.7], ["2022-03-21", 0.7], ["2022-03-22", 0.7], ["2022-03-23", 0.7], ["2022-03-26", 0.7], ["2022-04-06", 0.7], ["2022-04-26", 0.7], ["2022-05-05", 0.79], ["2022-05-07", 0.79], ["2022-05-08", 0.79], ["2022-05-10", 0.79], ["2022-05-10", 0.79], ["2022-05-23", 0.795], ["2022-05-23", 0.795], ["2022-06-06", 0.795], ["2022-06-09", 0.795], ["2022-06-09", 0.795], ["2022-06-10", 0.795], ["2022-06-10", 0.795], ["2022-06-10", 0.795], ["2022-06-11", 0.795], ["2022-06-11", 0.795], ["2022-06-12", 0.79], ["2022-06-12", 0.79], ["2022-06-13", 0.79], ["2022-06-13", 0.79], ["2022-06-16", 0.79], ["2022-06-17", 0.79], ["2022-06-17", 0.79], ["2022-06-21", 0.79], ["2022-06-25", 0.79], ["2022-06-30", 0.79], ["2022-06-30", 0.79], ["2022-07-02", 0.795], ["2022-07-10", 0.81], ["2022-07-15", 0.81], ["2022-07-20", 0.81], ["2022-07-20", 0.8], ["2022-07-20", 0.82], ["2022-08-01", 0.82], ["2022-08-12", 0.82], ["2022-08-17", 0.82], ["2022-08-20", 0.725], ["2022-08-20", 0.7244], ["2022-08-20", 0.7238], ["2022-08-22", 0.7175], ["2022-08-24", 0.7169], ["2022-08-24", 0.7163], ["2022-08-26", 0.7156], ["2022-08-28", 0.715], ["2022-08-29", 0.7125], ["2022-08-30", 0.7119], ["2022-08-30", 0.7113], ["2022-09-01", 0.7106], ["2022-09-03", 0.71], ["2022-09-05", 0.7094], ["2022-09-07", 0.7044], ["2022-09-07", 0.7013], ["2022-09-09", 0.7], ["2022-09-11", 0.6994], ["2022-09-11", 0.6869], ["2022-09-12", 0.6856], ["2022-09-13", 0.6844], ["2022-09-13", 0.6813], ["2022-09-13", 0.68], ["2022-09-13", 0.6794], ["2022-09-13", 0.6769], ["2022-09-13", 0.6719], ["2022-09-14", 0.6625], ["2022-09-15", 0.6613], ["2022-09-15", 0.6606], ["2022-09-17", 0.6594], ["2022-09-19", 0.6181], ["2022-09-20", 0.6019], ["2022-09-21", 0.5894], ["2022-09-25", 0.5925], ["2022-09-26", 0.5613], ["2022-09-26", 0.5581], ["2022-09-29", 0.55], ["2022-09-29", 0.5469], ["2022-10-02", 0.5735], ["2022-10-10", 0.5718], ["2022-10-10", 0.5659], ["2022-10-11", 0.5659], ["2022-10-14", 0.5647], ["2022-10-18", 0.5647], ["2022-10-23", 0.5412], ["2022-10-26", 0.5353], ["2022-10-29", 0.5324], ["2022-11-03", 0.5265], ["2022-11-04", 0.5235], ["2022-11-05", 0.5241], ["2022-11-05", 0.5253], ["2022-11-06", 0.5371], ["2022-11-06", 0.5371], ["2022-11-07", 0.5365], ["2022-11-07", 0.5371], ["2022-11-08", 0.5459], ["2022-11-12", 0.5518], ["2022-11-13", 0.5524], ["2022-11-15", 0.5547], ["2022-11-16", 0.5547], ["2022-11-16", 0.5553], ["2022-11-18", 0.5853], ["2022-11-18", 0.6071], ["2022-11-18", 0.6347], ["2022-11-19", 0.6341], ["2022-11-19", 0.6224], ["2022-11-19", 0.6047], ["2022-11-20", 0.6265], ["2022-11-22", 0.6335], ["2022-11-24", 0.6382], ["2022-11-24", 0.6406], ["2022-11-24", 0.6388], ["2022-11-24", 0.6382], ["2022-11-26", 0.6329], ["2022-11-27", 0.6429], ["2022-11-28", 0.6371], ["2022-11-28", 0.6365], ["2022-11-30", 0.6012], ["2022-12-01", 0.6147], ["2022-12-01", 0.6135], ["2022-12-01", 0.6129], ["2022-12-01", 0.6124], ["2022-12-03", 0.6088], ["2022-12-04", 0.6059], ["2022-12-04", 0.6035], ["2022-12-05", 0.6029], ["2022-12-06", 0.6324], ["2022-12-08", 0.6318], ["2022-12-08", 0.6272], ["2022-12-09", 0.6289], ["2022-12-09", 0.6283], ["2022-12-10", 0.6278], ["2022-12-10", 0.625], ["2022-12-10", 0.6528], ["2022-12-11", 0.6539], ["2022-12-11", 0.655], ["2022-12-12", 0.6556], ["2022-12-14", 0.655], ["2022-12-15", 0.655]] | ["https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/transportation/2022/12/15/port-authority-toll-hike-approved-for-2023/69731291007/", "https://www.panynj.gov/port-authority/en/press-room/press-release-archives/2022-press-releases.html", "https://www.panynj.gov/corporate/en/board-meeting-info.html", "https://nj1015.com/nyc-pushes-ahead-with-massive-toll-hike-plan-on-nj-commuters/", "https://www.panynj.gov/port-authority/en/press-room/press-release-archives/2022-press-releases/PORT-AUTHORITY-RELEASES-2021-FINANCIAL-STATEMENTS.html", "https://www.panynj.gov/corporate/en/board-meeting-info/videos.html", "https://www.nj.com/news/2021/12/yes-tolls-are-increasing-in-new-jersey-on-jan-1-heres-where.html", "https://www.nj.com/news/2022/11/port-authority-bridge-and-tunnel-toll-hike-proposed-with-officials-blaming-inflation.html", "https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/transportation/2022/11/17/nj-toll-hike-2023-port-authority-budget-as-capital-plan-lags/69657355007/", "https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/transportation/2022/10/26/garden-state-parkway-nj-turnpike-tolls-to-increase-in-2023/69590309007/", "https://www.panynj.gov/corporate/en/board-meeting-info/current-agenda-and-schedule.html", "https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/congestion-pricing-in-nyc-mta-sees-tolls-up-to-23-to-drive-parts-of-manhattan/3818137/", "https://www.masstransitmag.com/management/news/21283651/nj-murphy-warns-port-authority-dont-cut-jersey-projects-if-congestion-pricing-goes-through", "https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nj.com/news/2021/12/why-didnt-the-port-authority-hike-your-tolls-this-year-while-nj-toll-roads-did.html%3FoutputType%3Damp", "https://www.fitchratings.com/research/us-public-finance/fitch-rates-port-authority-of-ny-nj-s-1wtc-ny-liberty-bonds-a-07-12-2021", "https://www.nj.com/news/2022/10/brace-yourself-drivers-turnpike-and-parkway-tolls-are-going-up-for-the-3rd-year-in-a-row.html", "https://www.nj.com/news/2021/12/why-didnt-the-port-authority-hike-your-tolls-this-year-while-nj-toll-roads-did.html", "https://www.fitchratings.com/research/us-public-finance/toll-roads-bridges-tunnels-rating-criteria-26-06-2020", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Port_Authority_of_New_York_and_New_Jersey"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2022-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2038 |
<p>Debate on the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic has regained salience (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-57268111" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/372/6543/694.1" target="_blank">Science Magazine</a>, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01529-3" target="_blank">Nature</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-57267729" target="_blank">BBC</a>). On 27 May 2021, the ODNI issued a press release stating that the U.S. Intelligence Community had “coalesced around two likely scenarios: either it emerged naturally from human contact with infected animals or it was a laboratory accident. While two elements of the IC lean toward the former scenario and one leans more toward the latter -- each with low or moderate confidence -- the majority of elements within the IC do not believe there is sufficient information to assess one to be more likely than the other” (<a href="https://www.dni.gov/index.php/newsroom/press-releases/press-releases-2021/item/2218-odni-statement-on-covid-19-origins" target="_blank">Office of the Director of National Intelligence</a>). President Biden has asked for further reporting on the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic (<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/05/26/statement-by-president-joe-biden-on-the-investigation-into-the-origins-of-covid-19/" target="_blank">Whitehouse.gov</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/27/us/politics/coronavirus-origins-intelligence.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-57260009" target="_blank">BBC</a>). For further information on US intelligence community terminology on probabilities and confidence, see Intelligence Community Directive 203 (<a href="https://fas.org/irp/dni/icd/icd-203.pdf" target="_blank">Federation of American Scientists</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-01-03 | Before 1 January 2022, will the US Intelligence Community publicly state that a laboratory accident is a more probable scenario for the inception of the COVID-19 pandemic than it having emerged naturally through contact with infected animals? | 2021-06-11 | [["2021-06-11", 0.85], ["2021-06-11", 0.5], ["2021-06-11", 0.5], ["2021-06-12", 0.25], ["2021-06-12", 0.2], ["2021-06-12", 0.22], ["2021-06-12", 0.22], ["2021-06-12", 0.15], ["2021-06-12", 0.15], ["2021-06-12", 0.15], ["2021-06-12", 0.15], ["2021-06-12", 0.15], ["2021-06-12", 0.15], ["2021-06-12", 0.15], ["2021-06-12", 0.14], ["2021-06-12", 0.115], ["2021-06-12", 0.13], ["2021-06-12", 0.13], ["2021-06-13", 0.13], ["2021-06-13", 0.1], ["2021-06-13", 0.1], ["2021-06-13", 0.115], ["2021-06-13", 0.1], ["2021-06-13", 0.1], ["2021-06-13", 0.1], ["2021-06-13", 0.09], ["2021-06-13", 0.07], ["2021-06-13", 0.065], ["2021-06-13", 0.07], ["2021-06-14", 0.055], ["2021-06-14", 0.065], ["2021-06-14", 0.085], ["2021-06-14", 0.085], ["2021-06-14", 0.085], ["2021-06-14", 0.085], ["2021-06-14", 0.065], ["2021-06-14", 0.055], ["2021-06-14", 0.055], ["2021-06-14", 0.05], ["2021-06-14", 0.055], ["2021-06-14", 0.055], ["2021-06-14", 0.06], ["2021-06-14", 0.07], ["2021-06-14", 0.065], ["2021-06-15", 0.055], ["2021-06-15", 0.05], ["2021-06-15", 0.05], ["2021-06-15", 0.05], ["2021-06-15", 0.05], ["2021-06-15", 0.05], ["2021-06-15", 0.05], ["2021-06-15", 0.05], ["2021-06-15", 0.05], ["2021-06-15", 0.05], ["2021-06-15", 0.05], ["2021-06-16", 0.05], ["2021-06-16", 0.05], ["2021-06-16", 0.06], ["2021-06-16", 0.06], ["2021-06-16", 0.065], ["2021-06-16", 0.07], ["2021-06-16", 0.065], ["2021-06-16", 0.07], ["2021-06-16", 0.065], ["2021-06-16", 0.05], ["2021-06-17", 0.06], ["2021-06-17", 0.05], ["2021-06-17", 0.05], ["2021-06-17", 0.05], ["2021-06-17", 0.06], ["2021-06-17", 0.06], ["2021-06-17", 0.06], ["2021-06-17", 0.075], ["2021-06-17", 0.075], ["2021-06-17", 0.08], ["2021-06-18", 0.06], ["2021-06-18", 0.07], ["2021-06-20", 0.08], ["2021-06-20", 0.095], ["2021-06-20", 0.1], ["2021-06-21", 0.1], ["2021-06-21", 0.1], ["2021-06-21", 0.1], ["2021-06-21", 0.1], ["2021-06-21", 0.1], ["2021-06-22", 0.1], ["2021-06-22", 0.1], ["2021-06-23", 0.1], ["2021-06-23", 0.1], ["2021-06-23", 0.1], ["2021-06-24", 0.1], ["2021-06-24", 0.095], ["2021-06-24", 0.09], ["2021-06-25", 0.085], ["2021-06-25", 0.085], ["2021-06-25", 0.085], ["2021-06-25", 0.095], ["2021-06-25", 0.085], ["2021-06-26", 0.09], ["2021-06-26", 0.09], ["2021-06-26", 0.09], ["2021-06-27", 0.1], ["2021-06-27", 0.095], ["2021-06-28", 0.09], ["2021-06-28", 0.1], ["2021-06-28", 0.095], ["2021-06-28", 0.095], ["2021-06-29", 0.08], ["2021-06-29", 0.08], ["2021-06-29", 0.08], ["2021-06-29", 0.08], ["2021-06-29", 0.09], ["2021-06-30", 0.095], ["2021-06-30", 0.095], ["2021-06-30", 0.095], ["2021-06-30", 0.08], ["2021-06-30", 0.085], ["2021-06-30", 0.085], 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"https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/market-in-china-s-wuhan-likely-origin-of-covid-19-outbreak-study-1.5672950", "https://app.dysruptlabs.com/#competitions/details/3bf9ee97-b72b-4307-bc64-031f830d26b0?=eyJjb21wSUQiOiIzYmY5ZWU5Ny1iNzJiLTQzMDctYmM2NC0wMzFmODMwZDI2YjAiLCJhY3RpdmVUYWIiOnsiUXVlc3Rpb25zIjp7fX0sImFjdGl2ZUNoaWxkUGFnZSI6bnVsbCwiYWN0dWFsUXVlc3Rpb25MaXN0U3RhdGUiOm51bGx9", "https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abm4454", "https://youtu.be/siwpn14IE7E", "https://www.monash.edu/news/articles/monash-university-wins-aud-$18m-funding-to-advance-intelligence-analysis", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eesUdFlYMh8", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_SWARM_Project", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hEPatDpT_ek", "https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2020.01054/full", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/scientists-believed-covid-leaked-wuhan-211452135.html", "https://youtu.be/28ZOwVAZS0o", "https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/mapping-our-covid-19-recovery", "https://lens.monash.edu/2018/05/17/1349695/helping-intelligence-analysis-get-it-right", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPmRBkwwBBo&list=PLPnZfvKID1Sje5jWxt-4CSZD7bUI4gSPS&index=49", "https://www.apa.org/pubs/journals/releases/xap-0000040.pdf", "https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/how-to-take-the-outside-view", "https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/211327106.pdf", "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/fr/welcomeHA.html", "https://www.linkedin.com/in/warren-hatch/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMlRpN8ANrU"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-10-03 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2703 |
<p>Elected after a post-Civil War record of 15 ballots, Kevin McCarthy will lead the GOP with a razor-thin majority in the House (<a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-01-06/u-s-house-speaker-fight-enters-fourth-day-amid-antebellum-era-dysfunction" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64193932" target="_blank">BBC</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-10-03 | Will Kevin McCarthy cease to be the Speaker of the US House of Representatives before 1 January 2024? | 2023-01-13 | [["2023-01-13", 0.21], ["2023-01-13", 0.505], ["2023-01-13", 0.3633], ["2023-01-13", 0.515], ["2023-01-13", 0.442], ["2023-01-13", 0.3767], ["2023-01-13", 0.3229], ["2023-01-13", 0.2838], ["2023-01-13", 0.2567], ["2023-01-13", 0.2578], ["2023-01-13", 0.237], ["2023-01-13", 0.2182], ["2023-01-13", 0.2417], ["2023-01-13", 0.2392], ["2023-01-13", 0.24], ["2023-01-13", 0.2231], ["2023-01-14", 0.2786], ["2023-01-14", 0.2733], ["2023-01-14", 0.2625], ["2023-01-14", 0.25], ["2023-01-14", 0.2389], ["2023-01-14", 0.2711], ["2023-01-14", 0.2615], ["2023-01-14", 0.249], ["2023-01-14", 0.2532], ["2023-01-14", 0.2487], ["2023-01-14", 0.2521], ["2023-01-14", 0.254], ["2023-01-14", 0.2481], ["2023-01-14", 0.263], ["2023-01-14", 0.2732], ["2023-01-14", 0.2736], ["2023-01-14", 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0.3646], ["2023-10-03", 0.3727], ["2023-10-03", 0.3778], ["2023-10-03", 0.3827], ["2023-10-03", 0.3859], ["2023-10-03", 0.3878], ["2023-10-03", 0.4032], ["2023-10-03", 0.4044], ["2023-10-03", 0.4183], ["2023-10-03", 0.4205], ["2023-10-03", 0.4217], ["2023-10-03", 0.429], ["2023-10-03", 0.4305], ["2023-10-03", 0.4317], ["2023-10-03", 0.4327], ["2023-10-03", 0.448], ["2023-10-03", 0.4483], ["2023-10-03", 0.449], ["2023-10-03", 0.4554], ["2023-10-03", 0.4554]] | ["https://punchbowl.news/article/kevin-mccarthy-running-out-of-time-to-save-job/", "https://lite.cnn.com/2023/07/25/politics/house-freedom-caucus-government-funding/index.html", "https://wapo.st/3LFyrcW", "https://x.com/nicholaswu12/status/1709255156112502997?s=20", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/biden-mccarthy-aim-break-us-debt-ceiling-standoff-default-crisis-looms-2023-05-08/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/republican-house-speaker-mccarthy-faces-ouster-threat-avoiding-shutdown-2023-10-01/", "https://lite.cnn.com/2023/05/29/politics/chip-roy-house-rules-committee/index.html", "https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1709288413222891738", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/mccarthy-faces-threat-us-house-speaker-despite-impeachment-move-2023-09-12/", "https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/07/marjorie-taylor-greene-isnt-extreme-enough-for-the-gop/674637/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/10/01/kevin-mccarthy-matt-gaetz-house-speaker/", "https://twitter.com/RepMattGaetz/status/1708478902169931830", "https://lite.cnn.com/2023/09/13/opinions/impeachment-madness-will-blow-up-in-republicans-faces-avlon/index.html", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/10/03/kevin-mccarthy-house-speaker-vote/", "https://lite.cnn.com/2023/06/13/politics/house-floor-republican-tensions/index.html", "https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/08/mcconnell-mccarthy-biden-debt-00095579", "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/house-votes-to-proceed-with-potential-mccarthy-ouster#:~:text=Democrats%20signaled%20early%20on%20Tuesday%20that%20they%20would%20not%20be%20inclined%20to%20help%20McCarthy", "https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4035981-freedom-caucus-pumps-brakes-on-talk-of-ousting-speaker-mccarthy-over-debt-bill/", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/byron-donalds-says-house-leadership-closed-voting-on-cr-because-he-was-voting-no/ar-AA1hx2JT?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=0208f36e2bf541a2814fc63180489abf&ei=84", "https://twitter.com/MattLaslo/status/1704194792760951011", "https://lite.cnn.com/2023/06/06/politics/republican-revolt-mccarthy-rule-vote/index.html", "https://lite.cnn.com/2023/08/21/politics/house-freedom-caucus-continuing-resolution/index.html", "https://lite.cnn.com/2023/09/21/politics/house-government-shutdown-negotiations-latest/index.html", "https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1709272179500626370", "https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/matt-gaetz-kevin-mccarthy-house-speakership-10-03-23/index.html"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2024-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2777 |
<p>Disney currently owns two-thirds of Hulu, with Comcast owning the remaining third and each having options to compel the other to buy or sell their stakes in the company in January 2024 (<a href="https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/hulu-disney-comcast-deal-future-1235322106/" target="_blank">Hollywood Reporter</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/10/disney-iger-hulu-strategy-comcast.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1744489/000174448919000103/fy2019_q3x8kxcmcsaagreecover.htm" target="_blank">SEC</a>). The effective date of a sale would be immaterial, but the buyer or buyers must be party to the agreement but not necessarily named.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2024-01-01 | Before 1 January 2024, will Disney publicly announce an agreement to sell all of its ownership stake in the streaming service Hulu? | 2023-03-03 | [["2023-03-03", 0.2], ["2023-03-04", 0.125], ["2023-03-04", 0.1], ["2023-03-04", 0.0775], ["2023-03-04", 0.212], ["2023-03-04", 0.1767], ["2023-03-04", 0.1529], ["2023-03-04", 0.2238], ["2023-03-04", 0.2178], ["2023-03-04", 0.224], ["2023-03-04", 0.2173], ["2023-03-04", 0.2042], ["2023-03-05", 0.1923], ["2023-03-05", 0.1821], ["2023-03-05", 0.2233], ["2023-03-05", 0.2188], ["2023-03-05", 0.2118], ["2023-03-06", 0.2167], ["2023-03-06", 0.2233], ["2023-03-06", 0.2337], ["2023-03-06", 0.2225], ["2023-03-06", 0.231], ["2023-03-06", 0.2414], ["2023-03-06", 0.2526], ["2023-03-07", 0.2522], ["2023-03-07", 0.2623], ["2023-03-07", 0.3111], ["2023-03-07", 0.3279], ["2023-03-07", 0.3084], ["2023-03-07", 0.3005], ["2023-03-08", 0.3259], 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0.0716], ["2023-12-27", 0.0716], ["2023-12-27", 0.0635], ["2023-12-27", 0.0635], ["2023-12-27", 0.09], ["2023-12-28", 0.09], ["2023-12-30", 0.0878], ["2023-12-31", 0.0878], ["2024-01-01", 0.0878]] | ["https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/14/comcast-has-agreed-to-sell-its-stake-in-hulu-in-5-years.html", "https://www.nbcnews.com/media/disney-plus-hulu-combined-for-one-app-experience-bob-iger-says-rcna83847", "https://www.polygon.com/23826505/disney-plus-hulu-price-increase-new-bundle", "https://variety.com/2023/digital/news/disney-streaming-joe-earley-michael-paull-1235574919/", "https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/disney-hulu-comcast-1235346942/", "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/disney-and-comcast-move-up-hulu-deal-date-to-sept-30-153202110.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall", "https://thedirect.com/article/disney-hulu-marvel-movie-removal", "https://nypost.com/2023/03/03/disney-may-sell-its-67-stake-in-hulu-to-buy-more-marvel-rights/", "https://whatsondisneyplus.com/bob-iger-gives-update-on-when-hulu-will-merge-in-with-disney/", "https://www.ft.com/content/c3c65b65-1ba3-472d-94de-8f37e0b719f6", "https://whatsondisneyplus.com/tsg-suing-disney-for-withholding-profits-by-rushing-films-to-disney-hulu/", "https://www.bussinee.com/walt-disney-slipped-as-wells-fargo-says-hulu-sale-is-unlikely-dis/", "https://www.cbsnews.com/video/hulu-and-disney-set-to-raise-streaming-prices-again/", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/inside-disney-and-comcasts-fight-over-the-future-of-hulu-96a7aae6?mod=hp_lead_pos9", "https://seekingalpha.com/news/3947840-walt-disney-slips-wells-fargo-hulu-sale-is-unlikely", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/02/comcast-executives-expect-disney-to-buy-remaining-stake-in-hulu.html#:~:text=Comcast%20executives%20expect%20Disney%20to%20stick%20to%20its,it%E2%80%99s%20a%20better%20fit%20for%20NBCUniversal%20than%20Disney", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/06/business/media/comcast-disney-hulu-deal.html", "https://deadline.com/2023/05/disney-hulu-comcast-talks-bob-iger-streaming-1235362454/", "https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/disney-hulu/", "https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/05/16/comcast-will-likely-sell-hulu-stake-to-disney-in-early-2024.html", "https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/10/disney-iger-hulu-strategy-comcast.html"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-12-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2227 |
<p>After tennis star Peng Shuai accused a high-ranking Chinese political official of sexual assault on social media and was subsequently hidden from public view, the WTA announced the immediate suspension of all WTA tournaments in China, including Hong Kong, in concern for her safety (<a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/12/01/1060578989/peng-shuai-wta-tournaments-china-suspended" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://www.wtatennis.com/news/2384758/steve-simon-announces-wta-s-decision-to-suspend-tournaments-in-china" target="_blank">WTA</a>, <a href="https://www.espn.com/tennis/story/_/id/32763277/wta-suspends-tournament-play-china-concern-peng-shuai-safety" target="_blank">ESPN</a>). When the lifting of the suspension would take effect is immaterial, and a partial lifting would count. For the purposes of this question, Macau is considered a part of China.</p><p></p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? 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255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2022-12-01 | Before 1 December 2022, will the Women's Tennis Association (WTA) announce the lifting of its suspension of WTA tournaments in China and Hong Kong? | 2021-12-17 | [["2021-12-17", 0.1], ["2021-12-17", 0.305], ["2021-12-17", 0.49], ["2021-12-17", 0.43], ["2021-12-17", 0.344], ["2021-12-17", 0.2866666666666667], ["2021-12-17", 0.27], ["2021-12-17", 0.23625], ["2021-12-18", 0.22444444444444445], ["2021-12-18", 0.202], ["2021-12-18", 0.285], ["2021-12-18", 0.236], ["2021-12-18", 0.17], ["2021-12-18", 0.155], ["2021-12-18", 0.255], ["2021-12-18", 0.28], ["2021-12-19", 0.288], ["2021-12-19", 0.298], ["2021-12-19", 0.286], ["2021-12-19", 0.301], ["2021-12-19", 0.228], ["2021-12-20", 0.301], ["2021-12-20", 0.331], ["2021-12-20", 0.321], ["2021-12-20", 0.316], ["2021-12-20", 0.3], ["2021-12-20", 0.28], ["2021-12-21", 0.32], ["2021-12-21", 0.3927272727272727], ["2021-12-21", 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"https://www.wtatennis.com/news/2384758/steve-simon-announces-wta-s-decision-to-suspend-tournaments-in-china", "https://tennisuptodate.com/wta/wta-chief-denies-the-tour-will-return-to-china-next-year", "https://www.scmp.com/sport/tennis/article/3178014/no-tennis-tournaments-china-wta-releases-updated-schedule-sides-had", "https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/WTA_Peking", "https://pe-insights.com/news/2022/07/05/wta-opts-for-150m-cvc-investment/", "https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/03/sport/ioc-peter-dahlin-peng-shuai-spt-intl/index.html", "https://www.youtube.com/c/laowhy86", "https://www.atptour.com/en/tournaments/beijing/747/overview", "https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/07/tennis/wta-return-china-peng-shuai-suspension-spt-intl/index.html", "https://sports.yahoo.com/the-wt-as-hundred-million-dollar-statement-to-china-043514815.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAADMrrHqo506NW4qK7XDdUXsK0aqTOWuG1_tU6r1UkD1hepyhFR0AJ7lfVbyrNLr5KRaTKQNpXzSXZ_jFzIZyEYoPo67SFtAlCeDSoGXs4mP6X4Sd-i59HCSObrXbSIfe9_72eLpOeQNXe1vsXjWBv90s4bLNo9p4Fq7Wt5SpdUK7", "https://www.wtatennis.com/news/2784266/2022-edition-of-wta-finals-to-be-held-in-fort-worth-texas", "https://www.bbc.com/sport/tennis/62254326", "https://www.youtube.com/c/serpentza", "https://www.itia.tennis/about/", "https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/wta-china-peng-shuai-7652953/", "https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/tennis/peng-shuai-wta-china-suspension-b2064639.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2325-when-will-the-european-central-bank-next-announce-that-it-will-raise-its-deposit-facility-interest-rate", "https://www.wtatennis.com/tournaments/2022"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-10-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2617 |
<p>President Vladimir Putin has dominated Russian politics since he succeeded Boris Yeltsin as president in 1999 (<a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Vladimir-Putin" target="_blank">Britannica</a>). The temporary transfer of power to an acting president alone would not be considered Putin ceasing to be president (e.g., <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/1082191.html" target="_blank">Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-10-01 | Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 October 2023? | 2022-11-11 | [["2022-11-11", 0.162], ["2022-11-11", 0.231], ["2022-11-11", 0.2586], ["2022-11-11", 0.2372], ["2022-11-12", 0.2757], ["2022-11-12", 0.2789], ["2022-11-12", 0.2956], ["2022-11-12", 0.3105], ["2022-11-12", 0.2814], ["2022-11-12", 0.2835], ["2022-11-13", 0.2898], ["2022-11-13", 0.2776], ["2022-11-13", 0.2679], ["2022-11-14", 0.2648], ["2022-11-14", 0.2671], ["2022-11-14", 0.2733], ["2022-11-15", 0.2647], ["2022-11-15", 0.2209], ["2022-11-15", 0.2167], ["2022-11-15", 0.2251], ["2022-11-16", 0.2144], ["2022-11-16", 0.2253], ["2022-11-17", 0.2093], ["2022-11-17", 0.2134], ["2022-11-17", 0.1972], ["2022-11-18", 0.1805], ["2022-11-18", 0.1762], ["2022-11-19", 0.1742], ["2022-11-19", 0.1809], ["2022-11-19", 0.1791], ["2022-11-19", 0.1873], ["2022-11-19", 0.1829], 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["https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/06/putin-russian-coup-over-prigozhin-wagner/674522/", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66006860", "https://www.dailywire.com/news/russia-deploys-heavily-armed-forces-on-streets-of-moscow-after-wagner-boss-vows-war", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/28/russian-general-wagner-mutiny-goes-missing", "https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12229511/Soon-new-president-Prigozhins-Wagnear-group-says-Russian-leader-toppled.html", "https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-general-surovikin-was-sympathetic-towards-wagner-rebellion-us-officials-2023-06-28/", "https://jamestown.org/program/wagner-pmc-exemplifies-how-putin-has-destroyed-russian-state/", "https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/putin-security-crisis-wagner-rebellion", "https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-16-2023", "https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1672444417083416578", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group_rebellion", "https://puck.news/putins-post-prigozhin-clean-up/?_cio_id=f6c60610ae72af981e&utm_campaign=The+Daily+Courant+-+LEADS+%287%2F6%2F23%29&utm_content=The+Daily+Courant+-+LEADS+%287%2F6%2F23%29&utm_medium=email_action&utm_source=customer.io&utm_term=f6c60610ae72af981e", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Sudan_conflict", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_coups_and_coup_attempts#2020%E2%80%93present", "https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2023/06/russia-putin-prigozhin-power/674537/", "https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-236-russias-long-war-economy", "https://www.cnn.com/2017/03/13/opinions/putin-most-powerful-man-world-zakaria/index.html", "http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67828", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/24/russia-ukraine-war-news-wagner-prigozhin/", "https://brill.com/view/journals/rupo/6/3/article-p355_4.xml?language=en", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/28/world/europe/putin-prigozhin-russia.html", "https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-66006142", "https://www.businessinsider.com/wagner-leader-dead-another-coup-2023-8", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/09/04/arnold-ukraine-counteroffensive-united-states-weapons/", "https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/29/failed-wagner-coup-vladimir-putin-regime-strong-yevgeny-prighozin"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-01-11 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1891 |
<p>President Daniel Ortega is expected to run for reelection in the 2021 Nicaraguan general election, scheduled for 7 November 2021 (<a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/nicaraguan-government-sets-date-presidential-election-71785222" target="_blank">ABC News</a>, <a href="https://www.cfr.org/blog/ten-elections-watch-2021" target="_blank">Council on Foreign Relations</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/elections-blockades-central-america-daniel-ortega-nicaragua-14d04033e443f6da9bf3d11aec0dae47" target="_blank">AP</a>). Inauguration day is set by Article 148 of the constitution at 10 January 2022 (<a href="https://noticias.asamblea.gob.ni//constitucion/Libro_Constitucion.pdf" target="_blank">Nicaragua Constitution</a> [in Spanish], <a href="https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Nicaragua_2014.pdf?lang=en" target="_blank">Nicaragua Constitution</a> [in English]).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-01-11 | Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022? | 2021-01-06 | [["2021-01-06", 0.01], ["2021-01-06", 0.505], ["2021-01-06", 0.24], ["2021-01-06", 0.185], ["2021-01-06", 0.24], ["2021-01-06", 0.185], ["2021-01-07", 0.13], ["2021-01-07", 0.185], ["2021-01-07", 0.13], ["2021-01-07", 0.13], ["2021-01-07", 0.115], ["2021-01-07", 0.115], ["2021-01-07", 0.105], ["2021-01-07", 0.125], ["2021-01-07", 0.115], ["2021-01-07", 0.1], ["2021-01-07", 0.075], ["2021-01-07", 0.05], ["2021-01-07", 0.035], ["2021-01-07", 0.035], ["2021-01-07", 0.035], ["2021-01-08", 0.035], ["2021-01-08", 0.05], ["2021-01-08", 0.035], ["2021-01-08", 0.05], ["2021-01-08", 0.03], ["2021-01-08", 0.03], ["2021-01-09", 0.025], ["2021-01-09", 0.025], ["2021-01-09", 0.025], ["2021-01-09", 0.015], ["2021-01-09", 0.01], ["2021-01-09", 0.01], ["2021-01-10", 0.01], ["2021-01-10", 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["2022-01-04", 0.0], ["2022-01-04", 0.0], ["2022-01-04", 0.0], ["2022-01-04", 0.0], ["2022-01-04", 0.0], ["2022-01-04", 0.0], ["2022-01-05", 0.0], ["2022-01-05", 0.0], ["2022-01-05", 0.0], ["2022-01-06", 0.0], ["2022-01-06", 0.0], ["2022-01-06", 0.0], ["2022-01-07", 0.0], ["2022-01-07", 0.0], ["2022-01-08", 0.0], ["2022-01-08", 0.0], ["2022-01-08", 0.0], ["2022-01-09", 0.0], ["2022-01-10", 0.0], ["2022-01-10", 0.0], ["2022-01-10", 0.0], ["2022-01-10", 0.0], ["2022-01-10", 0.0], ["2022-01-11", 0.0]] | ["https://www.evangelisch.de/inhalte/186823/01-06-2021/wahlkampf-nicaragua-gewalt-nimmt-zu", "https://www.confidencial.com.ni/politica/las-razones-de-los-paises-caribenos-de-la-oea-para-dar-la-espalda-a-ortega/", "https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/another-5-years-for-daniel-ortega/", "https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210921-amid-official-denials-nicaraguans-battle-covid-surge", "https://www.confidencial.com.ni/politica/reunion-entre-cxl-y-prd-continua-en-el-limbo/", "https://www.confidencial.com.ni/english/daniel-ortega-breaches-transparency-agreements-on-covid-19-with-imf-wb-and-idb/", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/07/03/can-nicaraguas-military-prevent-a-civil-war/", "https://americasquarterly.org/tag/nicaragua/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cristiana_Chamorro_Barrios", "https://www.confidencial.com.ni/politica/kitty-monterrey-no-hablemos-de-dos-bloques-sino-de-una-opcion-y-esperamos-ser-nosotros/", "https://www.entornointeligente.com/nicaragua-se-acerca-peligrosamente-a-una-dictadura/", "https://apnews.com/article/elections-blockades-central-america-daniel-ortega-nicaragua-14d04033e443f6da9bf3d11aec0dae47", "https://brasil.elpais.com/brasil/2021-05-25/regime-de-ortega-promove-cacada-a-jornalistas-sob-pretexto-de-combater-lavagem-de-dinheiro.html", "https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/democraciaabierta/nicaragua-s-failed-coup/", "https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/uses-sanctions-foreign-policy-nicaraguas-elections-2021", "https://text.npr.org/998795586", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Assembly_(Nicaragua", "https://globalriskinsights.com/2021/02/nicaragua-risks-to-economic-recovery-in-2021/", "https://www.confidencial.com.ni/politica/opositores-lamentan-que-regimen-desperdicia-una-salida-a-la-crisis-sociopolitica/", "https://www.confidencial.com.ni/english/political-division-gives-ortega-an-additional-advantage-are-there-any-other-options/", "https://www.confidencial.com.ni/politica/gabriel-alvarez-recomienda-a-la-oposicion-proponer-cambios-de-magistrados-en-el-cse/", "https://www.france24.com/en/20180724-nicaragua-ortega-refuses-step-down-despite-bloodshed-protests", "https://freedomhouse.org/country/nicaragua/freedom-world/2021", "https://gaceta.es/gaceta-tv/estamos-llegando-al-limite-de-lo-que-podemos-hacer-para-enfrentar-a-ortega-20210622-0700/", "https://www.hrw.org/americas/nicaragua"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1985 |
<p>In January 2021, the European Parliament invited the European Commission to "consider a moratorium on the use of FRS in public spaces by public authorities," among other things (<a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-9-2021-0009_EN.pdf" target="_blank">European Parliament</a>, see #56, <a href="https://www.zdnet.com/article/facial-recognition-tech-is-supporting-mass-surveillance-its-time-for-a-ban-say-privacy-campaigners/" target="_blank">ZD Net</a>). Whether a moratorium or ban is established through legislation and/or regulation is immaterial, as are when it would take effect and how long it would last. A moratorium or ban with specific exemptions would count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-01-03 | Will the EU establish a moratorium or ban on the use of facial recognition systems (FRS) in public spaces by public authorities, in premises meant for education and healthcare, and/or by law enforcement in semi-public spaces before 1 January 2022? | 2021-04-09 | [["2021-04-09", 0.0], ["2021-04-09", 0.0], ["2021-04-09", 0.0], ["2021-04-09", 0.0], ["2021-04-09", 0.0], ["2021-04-09", 0.005], ["2021-04-09", 0.0], ["2021-04-09", 0.005], ["2021-04-10", 0.0], ["2021-04-10", 0.0], ["2021-04-10", 0.0], ["2021-04-10", 0.0], ["2021-04-10", 0.0], ["2021-04-11", 0.0], ["2021-04-11", 0.0], ["2021-04-11", 0.0], ["2021-04-11", 0.0], ["2021-04-11", 0.0], ["2021-04-11", 0.0], ["2021-04-12", 0.0], ["2021-04-12", 0.0], ["2021-04-12", 0.0], ["2021-04-12", 0.0], ["2021-04-13", 0.0], ["2021-04-13", 0.0], ["2021-04-13", 0.03], ["2021-04-13", 0.035], ["2021-04-13", 0.03], ["2021-04-14", 0.03], ["2021-04-14", 0.015], ["2021-04-14", 0.015], ["2021-04-14", 0.0], ["2021-04-14", 0.015], ["2021-04-15", 0.04], ["2021-04-15", 0.04], ["2021-04-15", 0.125], ["2021-04-15", 0.2], ["2021-04-16", 0.335], ["2021-04-16", 0.445], ["2021-04-16", 0.445], ["2021-04-16", 0.2], ["2021-04-17", 0.35], ["2021-04-18", 0.4], ["2021-04-18", 0.4], ["2021-04-18", 0.4], ["2021-04-19", 0.45], ["2021-04-19", 0.45], ["2021-04-19", 0.45], ["2021-04-19", 0.605], ["2021-04-19", 0.605], ["2021-04-20", 0.605], ["2021-04-20", 0.605], ["2021-04-21", 0.605], ["2021-04-21", 0.6], ["2021-04-21", 0.55], ["2021-04-21", 0.6], ["2021-04-21", 0.6], ["2021-04-22", 0.55], ["2021-04-22", 0.55], ["2021-04-22", 0.55], ["2021-04-22", 0.565], ["2021-04-23", 0.565], ["2021-04-24", 0.525], ["2021-04-24", 0.525], ["2021-04-25", 0.5], ["2021-04-25", 0.5], ["2021-04-25", 0.5], ["2021-04-26", 0.45], ["2021-04-26", 0.5], ["2021-04-27", 0.45], ["2021-04-27", 0.45], ["2021-04-28", 0.45], ["2021-04-29", 0.45], ["2021-04-29", 0.325], ["2021-04-30", 0.225], ["2021-04-30", 0.175], ["2021-04-30", 0.175], ["2021-04-30", 0.175], ["2021-05-01", 0.175], ["2021-05-02", 0.175], ["2021-05-02", 0.155], ["2021-05-02", 0.13], ["2021-05-04", 0.13], ["2021-05-04", 0.13], ["2021-05-05", 0.13], ["2021-05-05", 0.13], ["2021-05-05", 0.105], ["2021-05-07", 0.1], ["2021-05-07", 0.1], ["2021-05-07", 0.1], ["2021-05-10", 0.1], ["2021-05-10", 0.1], ["2021-05-10", 0.1], ["2021-05-10", 0.1], ["2021-05-13", 0.1], ["2021-05-13", 0.09], ["2021-05-14", 0.09], ["2021-05-14", 0.08], ["2021-05-15", 0.08], ["2021-05-16", 0.07], ["2021-05-16", 0.065], ["2021-05-16", 0.06], ["2021-05-17", 0.06], ["2021-05-18", 0.06], ["2021-05-20", 0.05], ["2021-05-23", 0.05], ["2021-05-25", 0.05], ["2021-05-25", 0.05], ["2021-05-26", 0.05], ["2021-05-26", 0.05], ["2021-06-02", 0.05], ["2021-06-02", 0.05], ["2021-06-05", 0.05], ["2021-06-06", 0.05], ["2021-06-08", 0.05], ["2021-06-11", 0.05], ["2021-06-12", 0.05], ["2021-06-14", 0.05], ["2021-06-14", 0.05], ["2021-06-16", 0.05], ["2021-06-16", 0.05], ["2021-06-17", 0.05], ["2021-06-19", 0.04], ["2021-06-20", 0.045], ["2021-06-30", 0.05], ["2021-07-01", 0.05], ["2021-07-01", 0.05], ["2021-07-02", 0.05], ["2021-07-06", 0.05], ["2021-07-07", 0.045], ["2021-07-10", 0.045], ["2021-07-12", 0.05], ["2021-07-13", 0.05], ["2021-07-19", 0.045], ["2021-07-23", 0.045], ["2021-07-25", 0.045], ["2021-07-27", 0.045], ["2021-07-27", 0.045], ["2021-07-27", 0.045], ["2021-07-29", 0.045], ["2021-07-30", 0.035], ["2021-08-03", 0.03], ["2021-08-04", 0.02], ["2021-08-04", 0.02], ["2021-08-05", 0.02], ["2021-08-05", 0.02], ["2021-08-05", 0.02], ["2021-08-05", 0.02], ["2021-08-06", 0.02], ["2021-08-06", 0.02], ["2021-08-09", 0.02], ["2021-08-09", 0.02], ["2021-08-10", 0.01], ["2021-08-12", 0.01], ["2021-08-13", 0.01], ["2021-08-13", 0.01], ["2021-08-15", 0.01], ["2021-08-18", 0.005], ["2021-08-20", 0.005], ["2021-08-21", 0.005], ["2021-08-28", 0.01], ["2021-08-28", 0.005], ["2021-08-29", 0.005], ["2021-09-02", 0.005], ["2021-09-02", 0.0], ["2021-09-03", 0.0], ["2021-09-03", 0.0], ["2021-09-05", 0.0], ["2021-09-08", 0.0], ["2021-09-09", 0.0], ["2021-09-11", 0.0], ["2021-09-11", 0.0], ["2021-09-18", 0.0], ["2021-09-19", 0.0], ["2021-09-21", 0.0], ["2021-09-22", 0.0], ["2021-09-26", 0.0], ["2021-09-27", 0.0], ["2021-09-28", 0.0], ["2021-09-28", 0.0], ["2021-09-29", 0.0], ["2021-10-08", 0.0], ["2021-10-10", 0.0], ["2021-10-13", 0.0], ["2021-10-15", 0.0], ["2021-10-22", 0.0], ["2021-10-24", 0.0], ["2021-10-27", 0.0], ["2021-10-29", 0.0], ["2021-11-02", 0.0], ["2021-11-08", 0.0], ["2021-11-10", 0.0], ["2021-11-17", 0.0], ["2021-11-18", 0.0], ["2021-11-18", 0.0], ["2021-11-18", 0.0], ["2021-11-21", 0.0], ["2021-11-22", 0.0], ["2021-11-23", 0.0], ["2021-11-26", 0.0], ["2021-12-03", 0.0], ["2021-12-06", 0.0], ["2021-12-10", 0.0], ["2021-12-12", 0.0], ["2021-12-13", 0.0], ["2021-12-17", 0.0], ["2021-12-17", 0.0], ["2021-12-20", 0.0], ["2021-12-22", 0.0], ["2021-12-24", 0.0], ["2021-12-26", 0.0], ["2021-12-29", 0.0], ["2021-12-30", 0.0], ["2022-01-01", 0.0], ["2022-01-01", 0.0]] | ["https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20210930IPR13925/use-of-artificial-intelligence-by-the-police-meps-oppose-mass-surveillance", "https://www.lawfareblog.com/artificial-intelligence-act-what-european-approach-ai", "https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-data-protection-authorities-call-for-ban-on-facial-recognition/#:~:text=Faces%2C%20gait%2C%20fingerprints%2C%20DNA,be%20logged%2C%20the%20regulators%20said.&text=They%20called%20for%20a%20ban,gender%2C%20political%20or%20sexual%20orientation", "https://edri.org/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-13/eu-poised-to-set-ai-rules-that-would-ban-surveillance-scoring", "https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/IDAN/2021/698021/EPRS_IDA(2021)698021_EN.pdf", "https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/library/proposal-regulation-european-approach-artificial-intelligence", "https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/library/proposal-regulation-laying-down-harmonised-rules-artificial-intelligence", "https://www.politico.eu/article/european-parliament-ban-facial-recognition-brussels/", "https://www.spiegel.de/netzwelt/netzpolitik/gesichtserkennung-eu-kommission-will-massenueberwachung-untersagen-a-9624dcc9-d79a-4976-ab11-c545d06ac910", "https://reclaimyourface.eu/evidence-in-eu-countries/", "https://techcrunch.com/2021/10/06/european-parliament-backs-ban-on-remote-biometric-surveillance/", "https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZaBPsfor_aHKNeeyXxk9uJfTru747EOn/view"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-10-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2757 |
<p>Offtake agreements between hydrogen producers and energy consumers are seen as key for the growth of the hydrogen industry (<a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/01/davos23-accelerate-financing-clean-hydrogen-projects/" target="_blank">World Economic Forum</a>, <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/offtake-agreement.asp" target="_blank">Investopedia - Offtake Agreement</a>). Natural gas-based hydrogen production with carbon capture and storage is referred to as blue hydrogen (<a href="https://news.mit.edu/2022/3-questions-emre-gencer-blue-hydrogen-1017" target="_blank">Massachusetts Institute of Technology</a>). For the purposes of this question, “industrial customer” means a recipient of blue hydrogen as part of the processing, producing, or assembling of goods, including the manufacturing, mining, agriculture, and construction industries (<a href="https://www.epa.gov/energy/electricity-customers" target="_blank">EPA</a>). The point of delivery must be in the US to count, and the date of delivery would be immaterial. The signing of an agreement must be made public before 1 October 2023 to count, and an announcement of the agreement by either party would count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 9 February 2023</span>: An agreement to purchase hydrogen in the form of ammonia would not count.</p>
| 2023-10-16 | Between 7 February 2023 and 30 September 2023, will an industrial customer in the US sign a binding sales agreement (aka offtake agreement) to purchase 50 million or more standard cubic feet per day (MSCFD) of blue hydrogen? | 2023-02-07 | [["2023-02-07", 0.4], ["2023-02-07", 0.7], ["2023-02-07", 0.7967], ["2023-02-07", 0.7225], ["2023-02-07", 0.7175], ["2023-02-08", 0.72], ["2023-02-08", 0.654], ["2023-02-08", 0.545], ["2023-02-08", 0.5417], ["2023-02-09", 0.5786], ["2023-02-09", 0.5929], ["2023-02-09", 0.5938], ["2023-02-09", 0.6063], ["2023-02-09", 0.5944], ["2023-02-11", 0.597], ["2023-02-12", 0.637], ["2023-02-13", 0.637], ["2023-02-14", 0.538], ["2023-02-20", 0.541], ["2023-02-26", 0.546], ["2023-02-28", 0.526], ["2023-03-09", 0.509], ["2023-03-09", 0.509], ["2023-03-11", 0.507], ["2023-03-21", 0.502], ["2023-04-10", 0.472], ["2023-04-10", 0.502], ["2023-04-13", 0.477], ["2023-04-13", 0.462], ["2023-04-13", 0.457], ["2023-04-13", 0.432], ["2023-04-13", 0.427], ["2023-04-15", 0.413], ["2023-04-17", 0.408], ["2023-04-19", 0.375], ["2023-04-19", 0.371], ["2023-04-21", 0.371], ["2023-04-27", 0.369], ["2023-05-03", 0.454], ["2023-05-09", 0.452], ["2023-05-11", 0.442], ["2023-05-11", 0.457], ["2023-05-11", 0.482], ["2023-05-11", 0.447], ["2023-05-11", 0.387], ["2023-05-11", 0.38], ["2023-05-14", 0.378], ["2023-05-28", 0.374], ["2023-06-05", 0.384], ["2023-06-05", 0.433], ["2023-06-08", 0.498], ["2023-06-08", 0.496], ["2023-06-13", 0.502], ["2023-06-13", 0.507], ["2023-06-14", 0.547], ["2023-06-14", 0.497], ["2023-06-14", 0.502], ["2023-06-21", 0.507], ["2023-06-29", 0.503], ["2023-06-29", 0.509], ["2023-07-02", 0.484], ["2023-07-09", 0.482], ["2023-07-10", 0.447], ["2023-07-10", 0.447], ["2023-07-15", 0.458], ["2023-07-16", 0.478], ["2023-07-20", 0.4573], ["2023-07-21", 0.3755], ["2023-07-21", 0.3391], ["2023-07-21", 0.3527], ["2023-07-21", 0.3664], ["2023-07-21", 0.3527], ["2023-07-21", 0.3473], ["2023-07-21", 0.3245], ["2023-07-22", 0.2464], ["2023-07-22", 0.2455], ["2023-07-24", 0.2318], ["2023-07-28", 0.2273], ["2023-07-30", 0.2264], ["2023-07-31", 0.2245], ["2023-08-02", 0.2227], ["2023-08-07", 0.2218], ["2023-08-07", 0.2209], ["2023-08-14", 0.2191], ["2023-08-14", 0.2182], ["2023-08-14", 0.2364], ["2023-08-14", 0.2775], ["2023-08-14", 0.2692], ["2023-08-14", 0.265], ["2023-08-14", 0.2608], ["2023-08-14", 0.2217], ["2023-08-14", 0.2217], ["2023-08-14", 0.2008], ["2023-08-14", 0.2008], ["2023-08-14", 0.2025], ["2023-08-15", 0.2], ["2023-08-17", 0.1967], ["2023-08-18", 0.1815], ["2023-08-20", 0.1769], ["2023-08-21", 0.1754], ["2023-08-23", 0.1738], ["2023-08-23", 0.1562], ["2023-08-23", 0.1423], ["2023-08-24", 0.1338], ["2023-08-25", 0.1323], ["2023-08-28", 0.1315], ["2023-08-31", 0.1238], ["2023-08-31", 0.1192], ["2023-09-03", 0.1008], ["2023-09-04", 0.0977], ["2023-09-04", 0.0946], ["2023-09-04", 0.0886], ["2023-09-05", 0.085], ["2023-09-05", 0.0829], ["2023-09-07", 0.0779], ["2023-09-10", 0.0714], ["2023-09-11", 0.0707], ["2023-09-12", 0.0686], ["2023-09-13", 0.0636], ["2023-09-13", 0.0629], ["2023-09-14", 0.0629], ["2023-09-17", 0.0614], ["2023-09-18", 0.0607], ["2023-09-18", 0.0536], ["2023-09-20", 0.0529], ["2023-09-23", 0.0521], ["2023-09-24", 0.0336], ["2023-09-25", 0.0329], ["2023-10-01", 0.0329]] | ["https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/energy-transition/050823-low-carbon-hydrogen-ammonia-deals-pick-up-but-uncertainties-weigh-on-q2", "https://www.linde.com/news-media/press-releases/2021/linde-starts-up-major-new-hydrogen-facility-in-the-u-s-gulf-coast", "https://oci-global.com/news-stories/press-releases/oci-selects-linde-as-partner-to-supply-clean-hydrogen-to-ocis-world-scale-blue-ammonia-project-in-the-u-s-gulf-coast/", "https://globalsyngas.org/wp-content/conference-presentations/2021/2021-D1-M1-920-Linde-Blue-Hydrogen-Solutions.pdf", "https://energynews.biz/aramco-puts-blue-hydrogen-plans-on-hold-due-to-high-costs-and-lack-of-off-takers/", "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-blue-hydrogen-market-projected-171000116.html", "https://www.energy.gov/articles/biden-harris-administration-jumpstart-clean-hydrogen-economy-new-initiative-provide-market"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-09-25 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2546 |
<p>In early August 2022, Hong Kong reduced the required time for travelers to quarantine, but compulsory quarantining remains in effect as part of its COVID protocols (<a href="https://www.coronavirus.gov.hk/eng/inbound-travel.html" target="_blank">Coronavirus.gov.hk</a>, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/08/08/1116260631/hong-kong-cuts-covid-hotel-quarantine-to-3-days-for-arrivals" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://www.destinasian.com/blog/news-briefs/hong-kong-may-end-hotel-quarantine-in-november" target="_blank">DestinAsian</a>). For the purposes of this question, "outside of China" means anywhere other than the Chinese mainland, Macao, or Taiwan. The general removal of the requirements with exceptions would count so long as travel from at least six G7 nations is permitted without quarantine (<a href="https://www.international.gc.ca/world-monde/international_relations-relations_internationales/g7/index.aspx?lang=eng" target="_blank">Canada G7</a>). An announcement that Hong Kong will cease to require travelers from outside of China to quarantine at some future date after 31 December 2022 would not count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2022-09-28 | Before 1 January 2023, will Hong Kong cease to require travelers from outside of China to quarantine in Hong Kong? | 2022-09-16 | [["2022-09-16", 0.2], ["2022-09-16", 0.25], ["2022-09-16", 0.5], ["2022-09-16", 0.45], ["2022-09-16", 0.506], ["2022-09-16", 0.4217], ["2022-09-17", 0.42], ["2022-09-17", 0.43], ["2022-09-17", 0.3933], ["2022-09-17", 0.355], ["2022-09-17", 0.3318], ["2022-09-17", 0.3291], ["2022-09-17", 0.3583], ["2022-09-17", 0.3615], ["2022-09-17", 0.3357], ["2022-09-17", 0.3133], ["2022-09-17", 0.3269], ["2022-09-18", 0.3129], ["2022-09-18", 0.3129], ["2022-09-18", 0.3124], ["2022-09-18", 0.3112], ["2022-09-18", 0.31], ["2022-09-18", 0.2983], ["2022-09-18", 0.2826], ["2022-09-19", 0.3035], ["2022-09-19", 0.2962], ["2022-09-19", 0.3214], ["2022-09-19", 0.2968], ["2022-09-19", 0.2968], ["2022-09-19", 0.2979], ["2022-09-19", 0.2995], ["2022-09-19", 0.302], ["2022-09-20", 0.3128], ["2022-09-20", 0.3575], ["2022-09-20", 0.3536], ["2022-09-20", 0.3464], ["2022-09-20", 0.33], ["2022-09-20", 0.3879], ["2022-09-20", 0.3857], ["2022-09-21", 0.4133], ["2022-09-21", 0.4379], ["2022-09-21", 0.5017], ["2022-09-22", 0.5208], ["2022-09-22", 0.5362], ["2022-09-22", 0.54], ["2022-09-22", 0.5925], ["2022-09-22", 0.5958], ["2022-09-23", 0.6083], ["2022-09-23", 0.6667], ["2022-09-23", 0.7208], ["2022-09-23", 0.7542], ["2022-09-23", 0.7575], ["2022-09-23", 0.7617], ["2022-09-23", 0.76], ["2022-09-23", 0.7617], ["2022-09-23", 0.78], ["2022-09-24", 0.7731], ["2022-09-25", 0.7731]] | ["https://www.ft.com/content/b1ca5e9f-a544-43d0-aad1-48fceb4a0f73", "https://www.reuters.com/world/china/hong-kong-prepares-surge-travel-after-covid-curbs-ease-2022-09-26/", "https://www.ft.com/content/54245a20-99c0-4e18-b01d-6db561093cfb", "https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/23/china/hong-kong-removes-quarantine-international-travel-intl-hnk/index.html", "https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/9/23/hong-kong-to-scrap-controversial-quarantine-policy"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2022-11-25 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2586 |
<p>Fighting has been reported near the Ukrainian city of Kherson in the south of the country, which is currently under Russian occupation (<a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-6ef2407371c67f0736459378833fab7a" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/volodymyr-zelenskyy-ukraine-russia-war-vladimir-putin-hails-fast-kherson-luhansk/" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/16/russian-forces-hold-the-line-in-kherson-as-ukraine-counterstrikes" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (<a href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375" target="_blank">ISW</a>). The address is Ushakova Avenue, 37, Kherson (Ushakova prospekt 37, Kherson, Khersonska oblast, UKR), to which you can zoom on the interactive map by clicking the search button on the upper left of the screen and entering the address. Whether the building is damaged or destroyed would be immaterial.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2022-11-26 | Will the city council building in Kherson, Ukraine, be under Ukrainian control on 25 November 2022, according to the Institute for the Study of War? | 2022-10-20 | [["2022-10-24", 0.205], ["2022-10-24", 0.5275], ["2022-10-24", 0.6683], ["2022-10-24", 0.635], ["2022-10-24", 0.5989], ["2022-10-24", 0.5664], ["2022-10-24", 0.5169], ["2022-10-24", 0.5321], ["2022-10-24", 0.5067], ["2022-10-24", 0.4818], ["2022-10-24", 0.4721], ["2022-10-24", 0.4952], ["2022-10-24", 0.5152], ["2022-10-24", 0.5292], ["2022-10-24", 0.4988], ["2022-10-24", 0.4932], ["2022-10-24", 0.4847], ["2022-10-25", 0.4947], ["2022-10-25", 0.4953], ["2022-10-25", 0.4926], ["2022-10-25", 0.4934], ["2022-10-25", 0.4875], ["2022-10-25", 0.4953], ["2022-10-25", 0.4913], ["2022-10-25", 0.479], ["2022-10-25", 0.4719], ["2022-10-25", 0.473], ["2022-10-25", 0.4816], ["2022-10-25", 0.4813], ["2022-10-25", 0.4789], ["2022-10-25", 0.4725], ["2022-10-25", 0.4757], ["2022-10-25", 0.4875], ["2022-10-25", 0.4819], ["2022-10-25", 0.4844], ["2022-10-25", 0.4833], ["2022-10-25", 0.477], ["2022-10-26", 0.4837], ["2022-10-26", 0.4793], ["2022-10-26", 0.4735], ["2022-10-26", 0.4789], ["2022-10-26", 0.4811], ["2022-10-26", 0.4811], ["2022-10-26", 0.4745], ["2022-10-26", 0.4779], ["2022-10-26", 0.4771], ["2022-10-26", 0.4766], ["2022-10-26", 0.4765], ["2022-10-26", 0.4749], ["2022-10-26", 0.4685], ["2022-10-26", 0.4692], ["2022-10-26", 0.4683], ["2022-10-26", 0.4666], ["2022-10-27", 0.4636], ["2022-10-27", 0.4643], ["2022-10-27", 0.4638], ["2022-10-27", 0.4654], ["2022-10-27", 0.4423], ["2022-10-27", 0.455], ["2022-10-27", 0.4545], ["2022-10-27", 0.4497], ["2022-10-27", 0.4406], ["2022-10-28", 0.4252], ["2022-10-28", 0.4289], ["2022-10-28", 0.4331], ["2022-10-28", 0.4317], ["2022-10-28", 0.4211], ["2022-10-28", 0.4174], ["2022-10-28", 0.4178], ["2022-10-28", 0.4226], ["2022-10-28", 0.4232], ["2022-10-28", 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"https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-11-11-22/index.html", "https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1591058374019649538", "https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Cartographical%20Methodology%20Explanation%20ISW%20CTP%202022.pdf", "https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-sun-tzu-walks-kherson-bar", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/20/the-russians-have-gone-now-kherson-faces-a-relentless-new-enemy-winter", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-urges-ukraine-be-open-talks-with-russia-washington-post-2022-11-06/", "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375", "https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-63576212", "https://www.ft.com/content/b8666ec0-7415-4700-aa2d-8b67e84145f6", "https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-9", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63587639", "https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-flag-kherson-city-russia-retreat-1758950", "https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/11/11/world/ukraine-war-news-russia-updates;", "https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/12/europe/kherson-city-ukraine-russia-intl/index.html", "https://twitter.com/ostapyarysh/status/1591064148171161600?s=61&t=UKmyG05aCzOFR44soobnbw", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukrainian-forces-gain-on-kherson-as-russia-retreats-11668158517", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-war-ukraine-latest-news-zelenskiy-warns-more-attacks-energy-2022-11-07/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=daily-briefing&utm_term=11-11-2022", "https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions", "https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/11/11/world/ukraine-war-news-russia-updates/ukrainian-forces-close-in-on-kherson-city-as-russia-says-retreat-is-complete", "https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1591063369687130113?s=20&t=dX9_QZi2kiWyMRtQFIRN7Q", "https://twitter.com/sternenko/status/1591058326624010244"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2021-07-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1872 |
<p>The latest trade agreement between the United States and China was the so-called “Phase One” agreement signed in January 2020 (<a href="https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/phase%20one%20agreement/US_China_Agreement_Fact_Sheet.pdf" target="_blank">U.S. Trade Representative</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/15/trump-and-china-sign-phase-one-trade-agreement.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-details-factbox-idUSKBN1ZE2IF" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-china-phase-one-trade-deal-whats-next" target="_blank">FOX Business</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-idUSKBN28C0HV" target="_blank">Reuters</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? 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scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-07-01 | Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021? | 2020-12-17 | [["2020-12-18", 0.0], ["2020-12-18", 0.05], ["2020-12-18", 0.075], ["2020-12-18", 0.05], ["2020-12-18", 0.05], ["2020-12-19", 0.05], ["2020-12-19", 0.05], ["2020-12-19", 0.025], ["2020-12-19", 0.0], ["2020-12-19", 0.025], ["2020-12-19", 0.0], ["2020-12-19", 0.05], ["2020-12-20", 0.05], ["2020-12-20", 0.05], ["2020-12-20", 0.05], ["2020-12-20", 0.05], ["2020-12-20", 0.05], ["2020-12-21", 0.05], ["2020-12-21", 0.05], ["2020-12-21", 0.05], ["2020-12-21", 0.05], ["2020-12-21", 0.05], ["2020-12-22", 0.065], ["2020-12-22", 0.045], ["2020-12-22", 0.05], ["2020-12-23", 0.035], ["2020-12-23", 0.035], ["2020-12-23", 0.03], ["2020-12-23", 0.04], ["2020-12-23", 0.05], ["2020-12-23", 0.04], ["2020-12-23", 0.03], ["2020-12-23", 0.03], ["2020-12-23", 0.04], ["2020-12-23", 0.04], ["2020-12-23", 0.05], ["2020-12-23", 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["2021-03-08", 0.01], ["2021-03-11", 0.01], ["2021-03-13", 0.01], ["2021-03-17", 0.01], ["2021-03-17", 0.01], ["2021-03-19", 0.01], ["2021-03-20", 0.01], ["2021-03-21", 0.01], ["2021-03-21", 0.01], ["2021-03-21", 0.01], ["2021-03-21", 0.01], ["2021-03-22", 0.01], ["2021-03-23", 0.01], ["2021-03-25", 0.01], ["2021-03-27", 0.01], ["2021-03-30", 0.01], ["2021-03-31", 0.01], ["2021-04-01", 0.01], ["2021-04-03", 0.01], ["2021-04-05", 0.01], ["2021-04-05", 0.01], ["2021-04-05", 0.01], ["2021-04-06", 0.01], ["2021-04-07", 0.01], ["2021-04-08", 0.01], ["2021-04-08", 0.01], ["2021-04-13", 0.01], ["2021-04-14", 0.01], ["2021-04-15", 0.01], ["2021-04-17", 0.01], ["2021-04-18", 0.005], ["2021-04-18", 0.0], ["2021-04-18", 0.0], ["2021-04-19", 0.0], ["2021-04-20", 0.0], ["2021-04-21", 0.0], ["2021-04-22", 0.0], ["2021-04-23", 0.0], ["2021-04-24", 0.0], ["2021-04-26", 0.0], ["2021-04-27", 0.0], ["2021-04-28", 0.0], ["2021-04-29", 0.0], ["2021-04-30", 0.0], ["2021-05-01", 0.0], ["2021-05-02", 0.0], ["2021-05-03", 0.0], ["2021-05-04", 0.0], ["2021-05-05", 0.0], ["2021-05-05", 0.0], ["2021-05-06", 0.0], ["2021-05-07", 0.0], ["2021-05-10", 0.0], ["2021-05-10", 0.0], ["2021-05-10", 0.0], ["2021-05-12", 0.0], ["2021-05-13", 0.0], ["2021-05-14", 0.0], ["2021-05-16", 0.0], ["2021-05-18", 0.0], ["2021-05-18", 0.0], ["2021-05-20", 0.0], ["2021-05-21", 0.0], ["2021-05-21", 0.0], ["2021-05-24", 0.0], ["2021-05-25", 0.0], ["2021-05-25", 0.0], ["2021-05-27", 0.0], ["2021-05-31", 0.0], ["2021-06-02", 0.0], ["2021-06-04", 0.0], ["2021-06-05", 0.0], ["2021-06-07", 0.0], ["2021-06-08", 0.0], ["2021-06-08", 0.0], ["2021-06-10", 0.0], ["2021-06-11", 0.0], ["2021-06-14", 0.0], ["2021-06-14", 0.0], ["2021-06-16", 0.0], ["2021-06-17", 0.0], ["2021-06-17", 0.0], ["2021-06-20", 0.0], ["2021-06-21", 0.0], ["2021-06-22", 0.0], ["2021-06-23", 0.0], ["2021-06-23", 0.0], ["2021-06-24", 0.0], ["2021-06-24", 0.0], ["2021-06-24", 0.0], ["2021-06-25", 0.0], ["2021-06-25", 0.0], ["2021-06-27", 0.0], ["2021-06-28", 0.0], ["2021-06-29", 0.0], ["2021-06-29", 0.0], ["2021-06-30", 0.0], ["2021-06-30", 0.0], ["2021-07-01", 0.0]] | ["http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-05/13/c_139942993.htm", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biden-yellen-trade/u-s-treasury-pick-yellen-says-domestic-investment-needed-before-new-trade-deals-idUSKBN29Q2RZ", "https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3127395/us-china-relations-trade-talks-will-take-place-when-time", "https://www.ft.com/content/166e648e-c382-40ab-9a29-a1fa75fbf35d", "https://reut.rs/34M2rhn", "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55760992", "https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3131721/no-time-talking-us-china-trade-deal-bidens-first-100-days", "https://reut.rs/3h1r7Z3", "https://reut.rs/3d60CR9", "https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Biden-s-top-diplomat-pick-says-Trump-right-to-be-tough-on-China", "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/under-biden-china-faces-renewed-trade-pressure/articleshow/80461678.cms", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/20/european-leaders-hail-new-dawn-for-ties-with-us-under-biden", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/03/17/tai-trade-biden/", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-alaska/top-american-chinese-diplomats-clash-publicly-at-start-of-first-talks-of-biden-presidency-idUSKBN2BA2A7", "https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/anatomy-flop-why-trumps-us-china-phase-one-trade-deal-fell", "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/11/biden-says-china-will-eat-our-lunch-on-infrastructure.html", "https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2021/02/15/will-bidens-america-change-course-on-china-and-trade/", "https://reut.rs/2T1jslz", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/10/g7-communique-leak-covid-origins-inquiry-vaccines-forced-labour", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biden-china/biden-says-there-will-be-repercussions-for-china-over-human-rights-idUSKBN2AH0AC?il=0", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-idUSKBN29Y2DV", "https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/world/china-sharpens-language-warns-taiwan-that-independence-means-war-204579", "https://reut.rs/3pjBECH", "https://thenationalpulse.com/news/biden-revokes-trump-energy-eo/", "https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-02-05/kevin-rudd-usa-chinese-confrontation-short-of-war"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2510 |
<p>The PCE Price Index, like the Consumer Price Index, is a measure of inflation used in the US (<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pce.asp#toc-pce-price-index-pcepi-vs-consumer-price-index-cpi" target="_blank">Investopedia</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using the Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA's) PCE Price Index data as first reported in its monthly Personal Income and Outlays reports (Reports) (<a href="https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index" target="_blank">BEA - Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index</a>). Subsequent revisions to data for previously-reported months in 2022 would be immaterial. In the Report for June 2022, the percentage change from June 2021 to June 2022 was 6.8% (<a href="https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2022-07/pi0622.pdf" target="_blank">BEA - Personal Income and Outlays June 2022</a>, see Table 11, Line 1).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-01-27 | Will the annual percent change in the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index be at or below 3.0% by December 2022? | 2022-08-05 | [["2022-08-05", 0.95], ["2022-08-05", 0.875], ["2022-08-05", 0.9166666666666666], ["2022-08-05", 0.6875], ["2022-08-05", 0.75], ["2022-08-06", 0.6416666666666667], ["2022-08-06", 0.5714285714285714], ["2022-08-07", 0.625], ["2022-08-07", 0.6666666666666666], ["2022-08-07", 0.66], ["2022-08-07", 0.61], ["2022-08-07", 0.57], ["2022-08-07", 0.5], ["2022-08-08", 0.499], ["2022-08-08", 0.533], ["2022-08-08", 0.524], ["2022-08-08", 0.519], ["2022-08-08", 0.422], ["2022-08-08", 0.427], ["2022-08-08", 0.424], ["2022-08-08", 0.404], ["2022-08-08", 0.403], ["2022-08-08", 0.313], ["2022-08-08", 0.403], ["2022-08-09", 0.348], ["2022-08-09", 0.338], ["2022-08-09", 0.348], ["2022-08-09", 0.345], ["2022-08-09", 0.345], ["2022-08-10", 0.369], ["2022-08-10", 0.368], ["2022-08-10", 0.367], ["2022-08-10", 0.292], ["2022-08-11", 0.307], ["2022-08-11", 0.307], ["2022-08-12", 0.301], ["2022-08-13", 0.2827272727272727], ["2022-08-13", 0.19272727272727272], ["2022-08-14", 0.1918181818181818], ["2022-08-14", 0.18181818181818182], ["2022-08-15", 0.16666666666666666], ["2022-08-16", 0.1675], ["2022-08-17", 0.17166666666666666], ["2022-08-17", 0.165], ["2022-08-17", 0.15333333333333332], ["2022-08-18", 0.14384615384615385], ["2022-08-20", 0.1431], ["2022-08-21", 0.1508], ["2022-08-22", 0.1415], ["2022-08-24", 0.1369], ["2022-08-26", 0.1271], ["2022-08-26", 0.12], ["2022-08-27", 0.1129], ["2022-08-29", 0.1171], ["2022-08-29", 0.1143], ["2022-08-30", 0.1143], ["2022-08-30", 0.1136], ["2022-08-31", 0.1129], ["2022-09-01", 0.1121], ["2022-09-02", 0.1114], ["2022-09-02", 0.1707], ["2022-09-03", 0.17], ["2022-09-05", 0.17], ["2022-09-05", 0.1693], ["2022-09-06", 0.1638], ["2022-09-07", 0.1906], ["2022-09-07", 0.1781], ["2022-09-07", 0.1794], ["2022-09-07", 0.18], ["2022-09-09", 0.1794], ["2022-09-09", 0.1838], ["2022-09-09", 0.1788], ["2022-09-10", 0.1825], ["2022-09-11", 0.1856], ["2022-09-12", 0.185], ["2022-09-13", 0.1844], ["2022-09-13", 0.1713], ["2022-09-13", 0.1463], ["2022-09-13", 0.1444], ["2022-09-14", 0.1569], ["2022-09-15", 0.155], ["2022-09-15", 0.1531], ["2022-09-15", 0.1525], ["2022-09-15", 0.1544], ["2022-09-15", 0.1482], ["2022-09-16", 0.1482], ["2022-09-17", 0.1476], ["2022-09-19", 0.1288], ["2022-09-21", 0.1282], ["2022-09-22", 0.1276], ["2022-09-23", 0.1335], ["2022-09-23", 0.1335], ["2022-09-24", 0.1329], ["2022-09-24", 0.1329], ["2022-09-24", 0.1261], ["2022-09-25", 0.1183], ["2022-09-28", 0.1172], ["2022-09-30", 0.1172], ["2022-09-30", 0.1161], ["2022-10-01", 0.1161], ["2022-10-01", 0.1139], ["2022-10-02", 0.0583], ["2022-10-02", 0.0572], ["2022-10-03", 0.0594], ["2022-10-04", 0.0578], ["2022-10-08", 0.0578], ["2022-10-08", 0.0467], ["2022-10-10", 0.0483], ["2022-10-10", 0.0411], ["2022-10-10", 0.04], ["2022-10-11", 0.0379], ["2022-10-11", 0.0347], ["2022-10-12", 0.0342], ["2022-10-12", 0.0332], ["2022-10-12", 0.0326], ["2022-10-13", 0.0326], ["2022-10-14", 0.0321], ["2022-10-14", 0.0316], ["2022-10-14", 0.0311], ["2022-10-16", 0.0295], ["2022-10-18", 0.0289], ["2022-10-20", 0.0284], ["2022-10-20", 0.0232], ["2022-10-20", 0.0216], ["2022-10-20", 0.0205], ["2022-10-22", 0.0205], ["2022-10-22", 0.02], ["2022-10-23", 0.0211], ["2022-10-23", 0.0205], ["2022-10-24", 0.0179], ["2022-10-24", 0.0195], ["2022-10-24", 0.0184], ["2022-10-25", 0.0184], ["2022-10-27", 0.0168], ["2022-10-27", 0.0185], ["2022-10-28", 0.017], ["2022-10-29", 0.0165], ["2022-10-29", 0.0165], ["2022-10-30", 0.016], ["2022-11-03", 0.0145], ["2022-11-03", 0.0135], ["2022-11-04", 0.011], ["2022-11-05", 0.0115], ["2022-11-05", 0.0105], ["2022-11-06", 0.0095], ["2022-11-06", 0.0095], ["2022-11-06", 0.009], ["2022-11-07", 0.0086], ["2022-11-11", 0.0086], ["2022-11-12", 0.0086], ["2022-11-13", 0.0081], ["2022-11-15", 0.0057], ["2022-11-15", 0.0062], ["2022-11-16", 0.0057], ["2022-11-17", 0.0057], ["2022-11-17", 0.0052], ["2022-11-18", 0.0052], ["2022-11-21", 0.0052], ["2022-11-22", 0.0052], ["2022-11-22", 0.0048], ["2022-11-25", 0.0048], ["2022-11-26", 0.0048], ["2022-11-28", 0.0048], ["2022-11-28", 0.0043], ["2022-11-30", 0.0043], ["2022-12-02", 0.0038], ["2022-12-03", 0.0038], ["2022-12-04", 0.0038], ["2022-12-05", 0.0033], ["2022-12-05", 0.0033], ["2022-12-06", 0.0029], ["2022-12-08", 0.0005], ["2022-12-09", 0.0005], ["2022-12-09", 0.0005], ["2022-12-11", 0.0005], ["2022-12-12", 0.0005], ["2022-12-19", 0.0005], ["2022-12-19", 0.0005], ["2022-12-19", 0.0005], ["2022-12-20", 0.0005], ["2022-12-23", 0.0005], ["2022-12-23", 0.0005], ["2022-12-23", 0.0005], ["2022-12-24", 0.0004], ["2022-12-24", 0.0004], ["2022-12-24", 0.0004], ["2022-12-25", 0.0022], ["2022-12-25", 0.0022], ["2022-12-26", 0.0022], ["2022-12-26", 0.0022], ["2022-12-26", 0.0022], ["2022-12-27", 0.0026], ["2022-12-28", 0.0026], ["2022-12-29", 0.0026], ["2022-12-29", 0.0026], ["2022-12-30", 0.0026], ["2022-12-31", 0.0026], ["2023-01-01", 0.0026], ["2023-01-01", 0.0026]] | ["https://fred.stlouisfed.org/categories/21", "https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/speeches/2022/september-27-omfif", "https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCECTPICTH", "https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting", "https://ycharts.com/indicators/reports/us_recession_probabilities_estrella_mishkin", "https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting.aspx", "https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/pce-price-index-annual-change", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCECTPICTM", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCECTPIMD", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DNRGRG3M086SBEA", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCE", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCECTPICTL"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-03-23 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2220 |
<p>Treasury bond yields are tracked for many purposes (<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/articles/03/122203.asp" target="_blank">Investopedia</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (<a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10" target="_blank">FRED</a>). As of 8 December 2021, the yield was 1.52%.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-03-23 | Will the closing yield for the US 10-Year Treasury reach or exceed 2.25% before 1 July 2022? | 2021-12-10 | [["2021-12-10", 0.55], ["2021-12-10", 0.3], ["2021-12-10", 0.45], ["2021-12-10", 0.425], ["2021-12-10", 0.725], ["2021-12-11", 0.725], ["2021-12-11", 0.725], ["2021-12-11", 0.7], ["2021-12-11", 0.6], ["2021-12-11", 0.6], ["2021-12-11", 0.6], ["2021-12-11", 0.6], ["2021-12-11", 0.55], ["2021-12-11", 0.5], ["2021-12-11", 0.5], ["2021-12-11", 0.45], ["2021-12-12", 0.44], ["2021-12-12", 0.4], ["2021-12-12", 0.33], ["2021-12-12", 0.26], ["2021-12-12", 0.245], ["2021-12-12", 0.24], ["2021-12-13", 0.23], ["2021-12-13", 0.22], ["2021-12-13", 0.22], ["2021-12-13", 0.22], ["2021-12-13", 0.22], ["2021-12-14", 0.2], ["2021-12-14", 0.2], ["2021-12-14", 0.17], ["2021-12-14", 0.2], ["2021-12-15", 0.16], ["2021-12-15", 0.16], ["2021-12-15", 0.2], ["2021-12-15", 0.16], ["2021-12-16", 0.17], ["2021-12-16", 0.17], ["2021-12-17", 0.18], ["2021-12-18", 0.17], ["2021-12-18", 0.175], ["2021-12-19", 0.205], ["2021-12-19", 0.21], ["2021-12-20", 0.2], ["2021-12-21", 0.2], ["2021-12-21", 0.19], ["2021-12-22", 0.2], ["2021-12-22", 0.2], ["2021-12-22", 0.2], ["2021-12-22", 0.205], ["2021-12-23", 0.23], ["2021-12-24", 0.25], ["2021-12-25", 0.245], ["2021-12-27", 0.24], ["2021-12-28", 0.225], ["2021-12-29", 0.225], ["2021-12-29", 0.23], ["2021-12-29", 0.25], ["2021-12-30", 0.23], ["2021-12-31", 0.25], ["2022-01-01", 0.25], ["2022-01-02", 0.25], ["2022-01-02", 0.25], ["2022-01-02", 0.23], ["2022-01-04", 0.21], ["2022-01-04", 0.25], ["2022-01-04", 0.21], ["2022-01-05", 0.205], ["2022-01-06", 0.215], ["2022-01-06", 0.24], ["2022-01-06", 0.25], ["2022-01-07", 0.25], ["2022-01-07", 0.25], ["2022-01-07", 0.25], ["2022-01-08", 0.25], ["2022-01-09", 0.23], ["2022-01-09", 0.25], ["2022-01-09", 0.25], ["2022-01-10", 0.25], ["2022-01-10", 0.25], ["2022-01-10", 0.345], ["2022-01-10", 0.345], ["2022-01-10", 0.36], ["2022-01-11", 0.35], ["2022-01-11", 0.37], ["2022-01-12", 0.37], ["2022-01-12", 0.37], ["2022-01-12", 0.375], ["2022-01-12", 0.37], ["2022-01-13", 0.37], ["2022-01-13", 0.37], ["2022-01-14", 0.36], ["2022-01-15", 0.35], ["2022-01-17", 0.35], ["2022-01-17", 0.34], ["2022-01-17", 0.34], ["2022-01-18", 0.34], ["2022-01-18", 0.355], ["2022-01-18", 0.355], ["2022-01-18", 0.37], ["2022-01-18", 0.38], ["2022-01-18", 0.38], ["2022-01-18", 0.38], ["2022-01-19", 0.38], ["2022-01-19", 0.38], ["2022-01-19", 0.38], ["2022-01-19", 0.385], ["2022-01-20", 0.385], ["2022-01-20", 0.4], ["2022-01-20", 0.4], ["2022-01-21", 0.4], ["2022-01-21", 0.4], ["2022-01-22", 0.385], ["2022-01-24", 0.4], ["2022-01-26", 0.4], ["2022-01-27", 0.4], ["2022-01-27", 0.4], ["2022-01-28", 0.4], ["2022-01-29", 0.4], ["2022-01-30", 0.4], ["2022-01-31", 0.4], ["2022-01-31", 0.39], ["2022-02-01", 0.39], ["2022-02-01", 0.37], ["2022-02-01", 0.37], ["2022-02-01", 0.355], ["2022-02-01", 0.355], ["2022-02-01", 0.355], ["2022-02-02", 0.35], ["2022-02-02", 0.35], ["2022-02-02", 0.35], ["2022-02-03", 0.355], ["2022-02-03", 0.35], ["2022-02-04", 0.35], ["2022-02-05", 0.375], ["2022-02-05", 0.4], ["2022-02-05", 0.4], ["2022-02-06", 0.4], ["2022-02-07", 0.405], ["2022-02-07", 0.405], ["2022-02-08", 0.425], ["2022-02-08", 0.45], ["2022-02-09", 0.425], ["2022-02-09", 0.45], ["2022-02-09", 0.45], ["2022-02-10", 0.45], ["2022-02-10", 0.45], ["2022-02-10", 0.45], ["2022-02-10", 0.475], ["2022-02-11", 0.475], ["2022-02-11", 0.5], ["2022-02-11", 0.5], ["2022-02-11", 0.5], ["2022-02-11", 0.5], ["2022-02-11", 0.5], ["2022-02-11", 0.5], ["2022-02-11", 0.52], ["2022-02-11", 0.55], ["2022-02-11", 0.535], ["2022-02-12", 0.535], ["2022-02-12", 0.55], ["2022-02-12", 0.565], ["2022-02-12", 0.565], ["2022-02-13", 0.58], ["2022-02-13", 0.6], ["2022-02-13", 0.6], ["2022-02-13", 0.605], ["2022-02-13", 0.6], ["2022-02-14", 0.6], ["2022-02-14", 0.6], ["2022-02-14", 0.6], ["2022-02-14", 0.6], ["2022-02-14", 0.6], ["2022-02-14", 0.6], ["2022-02-15", 0.61], ["2022-02-15", 0.63], ["2022-02-15", 0.635], ["2022-02-15", 0.635], ["2022-02-15", 0.645], ["2022-02-16", 0.645], ["2022-02-16", 0.66], ["2022-02-16", 0.66], ["2022-02-16", 0.67], ["2022-02-17", 0.67], ["2022-02-17", 0.67], ["2022-02-17", 0.67], ["2022-02-18", 0.69], ["2022-02-20", 0.69], ["2022-02-21", 0.69], ["2022-02-21", 0.69], ["2022-02-21", 0.7], ["2022-02-22", 0.7], ["2022-02-22", 0.7], ["2022-02-23", 0.7], ["2022-02-23", 0.7], ["2022-02-23", 0.74], ["2022-02-24", 0.74], ["2022-02-24", 0.75], ["2022-02-24", 0.75], ["2022-02-24", 0.74], ["2022-02-25", 0.74], ["2022-02-25", 0.74], ["2022-02-25", 0.725], ["2022-02-26", 0.73], ["2022-02-26", 0.715], ["2022-02-27", 0.715], ["2022-02-28", 0.72], ["2022-02-28", 0.72], ["2022-03-01", 0.695], ["2022-03-01", 0.69], ["2022-03-01", 0.69], ["2022-03-01", 0.69], ["2022-03-01", 0.69], ["2022-03-01", 0.675], ["2022-03-01", 0.67], ["2022-03-02", 0.67], ["2022-03-02", 0.67], ["2022-03-03", 0.67], ["2022-03-03", 0.675], ["2022-03-04", 0.685], ["2022-03-04", 0.69], ["2022-03-05", 0.69], ["2022-03-05", 0.675], ["2022-03-06", 0.67], ["2022-03-06", 0.67], ["2022-03-07", 0.67], ["2022-03-07", 0.67], ["2022-03-07", 0.67], ["2022-03-08", 0.67], ["2022-03-08", 0.67], ["2022-03-08", 0.65], ["2022-03-08", 0.65], ["2022-03-08", 0.65], ["2022-03-09", 0.65], ["2022-03-09", 0.65], ["2022-03-09", 0.65], ["2022-03-10", 0.65], ["2022-03-10", 0.65], ["2022-03-10", 0.65], ["2022-03-10", 0.62], ["2022-03-10", 0.62], ["2022-03-10", 0.62], ["2022-03-10", 0.63], ["2022-03-10", 0.63], ["2022-03-11", 0.63], ["2022-03-11", 0.635], ["2022-03-12", 0.635], ["2022-03-14", 0.635], ["2022-03-14", 0.65], ["2022-03-14", 0.675], ["2022-03-14", 0.7], ["2022-03-14", 0.7], ["2022-03-14", 0.7], ["2022-03-14", 0.705], ["2022-03-14", 0.715], ["2022-03-14", 0.715], ["2022-03-14", 0.73], ["2022-03-15", 0.75], ["2022-03-15", 0.75], ["2022-03-15", 0.75], ["2022-03-15", 0.76], ["2022-03-16", 0.76], ["2022-03-16", 0.775], ["2022-03-16", 0.775], ["2022-03-16", 0.78], ["2022-03-16", 0.785], ["2022-03-16", 0.785], ["2022-03-16", 0.795], ["2022-03-16", 0.8], ["2022-03-16", 0.8], ["2022-03-16", 0.805], ["2022-03-16", 0.835], ["2022-03-17", 0.845], ["2022-03-17", 0.85], ["2022-03-17", 0.875], ["2022-03-17", 0.885], ["2022-03-18", 0.9], ["2022-03-18", 0.9], ["2022-03-18", 0.9], ["2022-03-19", 0.9], ["2022-03-19", 0.9], ["2022-03-20", 0.905], ["2022-03-20", 0.915], ["2022-03-21", 0.915], ["2022-03-21", 0.92], ["2022-03-21", 0.93], ["2022-03-21", 0.94], ["2022-03-21", 0.945], ["2022-03-21", 0.95], ["2022-03-21", 0.95], ["2022-03-21", 0.95], ["2022-03-21", 0.95], ["2022-03-21", 0.95], ["2022-03-21", 0.95], ["2022-03-22", 0.96], ["2022-03-22", 0.97], ["2022-03-22", 0.98], ["2022-03-23", 0.99], ["2022-03-23", 0.99], ["2022-03-23", 0.99]] | ["https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/TMUBMUSD10Y?countrycode=BX", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/11/10-year-treasury-yield-in-focus-after-breaching-2percent-as-inflation-spikes.html", "https://www.thebalance.com/fed-funds-rate-history-highs-lows-3306135", "https://www.blackstone.com/news/press/byron-wien-and-joe-zidle-announce-the-ten-surprises-of-2022/", "https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/", "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2022/february-2022", "https://www.investopedia.com/articles/03/122203.asp", "https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bond-rate-yield-chart", "https://www.bankrate.com/investing/market-mavens-survey-bonds-december-2021/", "https://russellinvestments.com/us/blog/treasury-yields-rise-2022", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2022/03/16/fed-rate-hike/", "http://www.ft/", "https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_the_United_States", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII10", "https://twitter.com/cullenroche/status/1480387674976313346?t=zFEbGpZ_qrP7owo4HG0RQg&s=19", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TREAST", "https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/interest-rates-affect-bonds.html", "https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YFF", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/THREEFF10", "https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html#", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/04/after-rapid-rate-increase-to-start-2022-investors-see-benchmark-10-year-yield-rising-to-2percent-soon.html", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2024-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2699 |
<p>As Russia's war in Ukraine continues, both Ukrainian President Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin have each brought up the potential for peace talks (<a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/12/26/1145509209/putin-reiterates-claims-hes-willing-to-negotiate-but-attacks-on-ukraine-continue" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/11/08/zelensky-peace-talks-putin-war-criminals" target="_blank">Axios</a>). The meeting must be face-to-face but can occur in any venue and does not need to be bilateral to count. An acting president under the constitution of the relevant country would count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2024-01-01 | Before 1 January 2024, will the presidents of Russia and Ukraine meet in person? | 2023-01-06 | [["2023-01-06", 0.3733], ["2023-01-06", 0.5117], ["2023-01-06", 0.3678], ["2023-01-06", 0.33], ["2023-01-06", 0.326], ["2023-01-06", 0.2865], ["2023-01-06", 0.2485], ["2023-01-07", 0.2204], ["2023-01-07", 0.2008], ["2023-01-07", 0.1879], ["2023-01-07", 0.1713], ["2023-01-07", 0.1706], ["2023-01-07", 0.1767], ["2023-01-07", 0.1622], ["2023-01-08", 0.1863], ["2023-01-08", 0.1766], ["2023-01-08", 0.1725], ["2023-01-08", 0.1643], ["2023-01-08", 0.1631], ["2023-01-08", 0.156], ["2023-01-09", 0.1545], ["2023-01-09", 0.1541], ["2023-01-09", 0.1542], ["2023-01-09", 0.1492], ["2023-01-09", 0.1153], ["2023-01-09", 0.0976], ["2023-01-10", 0.106], ["2023-01-10", 0.1083], ["2023-01-10", 0.1233], ["2023-01-10", 0.1304], ["2023-01-11", 0.1224], ["2023-01-11", 0.1334], ["2023-01-11", 0.146], ["2023-01-12", 0.1778], ["2023-01-12", 0.1788], ["2023-01-13", 0.1858], ["2023-01-14", 0.1873], ["2023-01-16", 0.1908], ["2023-01-16", 0.2013], ["2023-01-17", 0.1978], ["2023-01-19", 0.1918], ["2023-01-19", 0.1861], ["2023-01-20", 0.1826], ["2023-01-21", 0.1567], ["2023-01-22", 0.1465], ["2023-01-23", 0.1436], ["2023-01-24", 0.1891], ["2023-01-25", 0.1891], ["2023-01-25", 0.1848], ["2023-01-26", 0.1754], ["2023-01-27", 0.1781], ["2023-01-27", 0.1627], ["2023-01-27", 0.1592], ["2023-01-28", 0.1557], ["2023-01-28", 0.1453], ["2023-01-29", 0.1447], ["2023-01-30", 0.1572], ["2023-01-30", 0.1578], ["2023-01-30", 0.1537], ["2023-01-31", 0.1485], ["2023-01-31", 0.1347], ["2023-02-01", 0.1285], ["2023-02-01", 0.1322], ["2023-02-03", 0.1271], ["2023-02-03", 0.1269], ["2023-02-04", 0.1389], ["2023-02-05", 0.1357], ["2023-02-06", 0.14], ["2023-02-06", 0.1388], ["2023-02-07", 0.1373], ["2023-02-07", 0.1356], ["2023-02-08", 0.1349], ["2023-02-09", 0.1356], ["2023-02-10", 0.1352], ["2023-02-11", 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"https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-22/one-year-ukraine-russia-war-casualties-weapons-nato-nuclear/101934754", "https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2022/04/17/zelensky-on-peace-talks.cnn", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/24/russia-ukraine-war-news-wagner-prigozhin/", "https://www.theweek.in/theweek/current/2023/07/15/zelenskys-10-point-peace-plan-explained.html", "https://www.axios.com/2022/11/08/zelensky-peace-talks-putin-war-criminals", "https://www.history.com/news/christmas-truce-1914-world-war-i-soldier-accounts", "https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCOTAugust%203%2C2023.png", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-president-zelenskiy-insists-meeting-with-putin-interfax-cites-interview-2022-03-21/", "https://dailyreckoning.com/time-to-get-real-about-ukraine/", "https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/zelenskyy-possible-negotiations-putin-ukrainian-194002789.html"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-05-19 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1971 |
<p>NYC has imposed various restrictions on restaurants and other establishments as the city and the world deal with the COVID-19 pandemic (<a href="https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/politics/2020/12/15/mondays-with-the-mayor-nyc-full-shutdown-de-blasio-nyc-shutdown-timeline" target="_blank">Spectrum News</a>, <a href="https://abc7ny.com/covid-vaccine-new-york-dining-nyc-restaurants/10395226/" target="_blank">WABC</a>). As of 26 March 2021, restaurants in NYC were permitted to reopen for indoor dining at 50% of capacity (<a href="https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-businesses-and-facilities.page" target="_blank">nyc.gov - Business and Facilities Page</a>, <a href="https://www1.nyc.gov/nycbusiness/article/nyc-restaurant-reopening-guide" target="_blank">nyc.gov - Restaurant Reopening Guide</a>). Exemptions and/or waivers for specific restaurants would not count.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-05-19 | Will restaurants in New York City (NYC) be permitted to offer indoor dining at 85% capacity or more before 1 July 2021? | 2021-03-26 | [["2021-03-26", 0.0], ["2021-03-26", 0.0], ["2021-03-26", 0.0], ["2021-03-26", 0.0], ["2021-03-26", 0.0], ["2021-03-26", 0.125], ["2021-03-26", 0.25], ["2021-03-26", 0.25], ["2021-03-26", 0.25], ["2021-03-26", 0.25], ["2021-03-26", 0.25], ["2021-03-27", 0.375], ["2021-03-27", 0.25], ["2021-03-27", 0.31], ["2021-03-27", 0.25], ["2021-03-27", 0.31], ["2021-03-27", 0.25], ["2021-03-27", 0.31], ["2021-03-27", 0.33], ["2021-03-27", 0.315], ["2021-03-27", 0.3], ["2021-03-27", 0.315], ["2021-03-27", 0.33], ["2021-03-27", 0.315], ["2021-03-27", 0.33], ["2021-03-27", 0.35], ["2021-03-28", 0.33], ["2021-03-28", 0.35], ["2021-03-28", 0.37], ["2021-03-28", 0.385], ["2021-03-28", 0.37], ["2021-03-28", 0.35], ["2021-03-28", 0.33], ["2021-03-28", 0.37], ["2021-03-28", 0.385], 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"https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1273582", "https://www.thrillist.com/eat/new-york/indoor-dining-reopening-nyc-restaurants", "https://www.curbed.com/2021/04/de-blasio-cuomo-fighting-over-nyc-reopening.html", "https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/sars-cov-2-transmission.html#anchor_1619805150492", "https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavirus/ny-opens-all-mass-vaccine-sites-to-walk-ins-for-age-16-city-halfway-to-shot-goal/3026315/", "https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/no-202108-continuing-temporary-suspension-and-modification-laws-relating-disaster-emergency", "https://therealdeal.com/2021/04/29/de-blasio-and-cuomo-clash-over-reopening-the-city/", "https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/29/politics/new-york-city-coronavirus-restrictions-lifted-de-blasio/index.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-17/nyc-marathon-will-come-back-in-november-with-33-000-runners?srnd=premium&sref=i2Bc5OtW", "https://www1.nyc.gov/nycbusiness/article/nyc-restaurant-reopening-guide#news", "https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-cuomo-governor-murphy-and-governor-lamont-announce-significant-easing-covid-19", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/03/nyregion/new-york-city-subway-reopen.html?campaign_id=57&emc=edit_ne_20210503&instance_id=30164&nl=evening-briefing&regi_id=54222971&segment_id=57137&te=1&user_id=9c6bc82f1d7e69dac5b2dde75ca776a7", "https://www.timesunion.com/news/article/Cuomo-announces-major-reopening-of-economy-16147336.php", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JlYLT5vhPfo&t=777s", "https://ny.eater.com/2021/4/30/22412389/nyc-restaurants-bars-75-percent-capacity-may-7", "https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-cuomo-announces-new-york-city-indoor-dining-will-expand-75-percent-capacity-beginning", "https://ny.eater.com/2021/4/29/22409544/nyc-mayor-restaurant-bar-full-reopening-july-1", "https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavirus/cuomo-makes-vaccine-pitch-to-youth-high-schools-to-get-ny-fully-open-in-under-2-months/3029144/", "https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/organizations/business-employers/bars-restaurants.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/29/nyregion/nyc-reopening-de-blasio.html?searchResultPosition=1", "https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends", "https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavirus/nyc-bar-scene-roars-back-monday-kicking-off-key-reopening-week-big-nj-news-due/3032296/", "https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data-vaccines.page", "https://ny.eater.com/2021/5/3/22417412/return-full-capacity-indoor-dining-may-nyc"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2020-11-03 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1793 |
<p>Currently scheduled for 3 November 2020, the non-binding referendum will ask Puerto Ricans, "Should Puerto Rico be immediately admitted into the Union as a state?" (<a href="https://www.ballotpedia.org/Puerto_Rico_Statehood_Referendum_(2020)" target="_blank">Ballotpedia</a>). Legislators in Washington, DC, are closely following the referendum (<a href="https://thehill.com/latino/516463-florida-democrat-introduces-bill-to-recognize-puerto-rico-statehood-referendum" target="_blank">The Hill</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>
| 2020-11-06 | In its 2020 referendum, will Puerto Rico vote to become a state? | 2020-09-25 | [["2020-09-25", 0.86], ["2020-09-25", 0.805], ["2020-09-25", 0.86], ["2020-09-25", 0.805], ["2020-09-25", 0.865], ["2020-09-25", 0.87], ["2020-09-25", 0.865], ["2020-09-25", 0.86], ["2020-09-25", 0.865], ["2020-09-25", 0.87], ["2020-09-25", 0.865], ["2020-09-25", 0.865], ["2020-09-25", 0.81], ["2020-09-25", 0.885], ["2020-09-25", 0.9], ["2020-09-25", 0.885], ["2020-09-25", 0.9], ["2020-09-25", 0.925], ["2020-09-25", 0.97], ["2020-09-25", 0.97], ["2020-09-25", 0.95], ["2020-09-25", 0.95], ["2020-09-25", 0.975], ["2020-09-25", 1.0], ["2020-09-25", 1.0], ["2020-09-25", 1.0], ["2020-09-25", 1.0], ["2020-09-25", 0.995], ["2020-09-25", 0.97], ["2020-09-25", 0.99], ["2020-09-26", 0.95], ["2020-09-26", 0.99], ["2020-09-26", 0.99], ["2020-09-26", 0.995], ["2020-09-26", 0.995], ["2020-09-26", 0.99], ["2020-09-26", 0.99], ["2020-09-26", 0.995], ["2020-09-26", 0.995], ["2020-09-26", 0.99], ["2020-09-26", 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True | 2022-07-18 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2372 |
<p>After the US delayed then canceled an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Russia subsequently tested a new ICBM of its own (<a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-04-01/exclusive-u-s-cancels-icbm-test-due-to-russia-nuclear-tensions" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.space.com/russia-test-launch-sarmat-icbm" target="_blank">Space.com</a>). For the purposes of this question, the estimated range of a launched ICBM or SLBM will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), then open source reporting if needed (<a href="https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/united-states/" target="_blank">CSIS</a>). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. A missile will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the ICBM left the ground or SLBM cleared the water and its first stage ignited.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2022-07-18 | Between 29 April 2022 and 1 December 2022, will the United States launch either an ICBM or a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) with an estimated range of at least 10,000 km? | 2022-04-29 | [["2022-04-29", 0.98], ["2022-04-29", 0.99], ["2022-04-29", 0.98], ["2022-04-29", 0.98], ["2022-04-29", 0.98], ["2022-04-29", 0.89], ["2022-04-30", 0.8], ["2022-04-30", 0.8], ["2022-04-30", 0.605], ["2022-04-30", 0.55], ["2022-04-30", 0.48], ["2022-04-30", 0.55], ["2022-04-30", 0.675], ["2022-04-30", 0.675], ["2022-04-30", 0.56], ["2022-04-30", 0.68], ["2022-04-30", 0.56], ["2022-04-30", 0.56], ["2022-04-30", 0.56], ["2022-04-30", 0.67], ["2022-05-01", 0.78], ["2022-05-01", 0.79], ["2022-05-01", 0.78], ["2022-05-01", 0.78], ["2022-05-01", 0.8], ["2022-05-01", 0.8], ["2022-05-01", 0.8], ["2022-05-01", 0.79], ["2022-05-01", 0.78], ["2022-05-02", 0.78], ["2022-05-02", 0.755], ["2022-05-02", 0.75], ["2022-05-02", 0.75], ["2022-05-02", 0.765], ["2022-05-02", 0.75], ["2022-05-02", 0.695], ["2022-05-02", 0.675], ["2022-05-02", 0.66], ["2022-05-02", 0.66], ["2022-05-02", 0.58], ["2022-05-03", 0.66], ["2022-05-03", 0.525], ["2022-05-03", 0.525], ["2022-05-03", 0.525], ["2022-05-03", 0.5], ["2022-05-03", 0.525], ["2022-05-04", 0.5], ["2022-05-04", 0.525], ["2022-05-04", 0.5], ["2022-05-04", 0.455], ["2022-05-04", 0.455], ["2022-05-04", 0.4], ["2022-05-04", 0.4], ["2022-05-04", 0.4], ["2022-05-05", 0.25], ["2022-05-05", 0.25], ["2022-05-05", 0.4], ["2022-05-05", 0.4], ["2022-05-05", 0.41], ["2022-05-05", 0.405], ["2022-05-06", 0.41], ["2022-05-06", 0.425], ["2022-05-06", 0.405], ["2022-05-06", 0.41], ["2022-05-06", 0.4], ["2022-05-07", 0.4], ["2022-05-09", 0.4], ["2022-05-09", 0.4], ["2022-05-09", 0.42], ["2022-05-09", 0.365], ["2022-05-09", 0.365], ["2022-05-09", 0.29], ["2022-05-09", 0.29], ["2022-05-10", 0.29], ["2022-05-10", 0.27], ["2022-05-10", 0.225], ["2022-05-11", 0.225], ["2022-05-11", 0.25], ["2022-05-11", 0.25], ["2022-05-12", 0.25], ["2022-05-12", 0.225], ["2022-05-12", 0.225], ["2022-05-12", 0.21], ["2022-05-13", 0.21], ["2022-05-13", 0.235], ["2022-05-13", 0.235], ["2022-05-13", 0.21], ["2022-05-14", 0.21], ["2022-05-14", 0.2], ["2022-05-15", 0.15], ["2022-05-15", 0.15], ["2022-05-16", 0.175], ["2022-05-16", 0.175], ["2022-05-16", 0.155], ["2022-05-17", 0.155], ["2022-05-17", 0.155], ["2022-05-18", 0.155], ["2022-05-18", 0.155], ["2022-05-18", 0.155], ["2022-05-19", 0.145], ["2022-05-19", 0.145], ["2022-05-19", 0.15], ["2022-05-19", 0.16], ["2022-05-19", 0.17], ["2022-05-19", 0.17], ["2022-05-19", 0.175], ["2022-05-20", 0.175], ["2022-05-21", 0.175], ["2022-05-21", 0.175], ["2022-05-21", 0.175], ["2022-05-23", 0.175], ["2022-05-23", 0.17], ["2022-05-23", 0.175], ["2022-05-23", 0.175], ["2022-05-23", 0.175], ["2022-05-23", 0.175], ["2022-05-25", 0.175], ["2022-05-25", 0.18], ["2022-05-26", 0.18], ["2022-05-26", 0.18], ["2022-05-27", 0.175], ["2022-05-27", 0.175], ["2022-05-28", 0.175], ["2022-05-28", 0.175], ["2022-05-30", 0.17], ["2022-05-30", 0.17], ["2022-05-31", 0.17], ["2022-05-31", 0.17], ["2022-05-31", 0.17], ["2022-06-01", 0.175], ["2022-06-01", 0.17], ["2022-06-02", 0.17], ["2022-06-02", 0.16], ["2022-06-02", 0.16], ["2022-06-03", 0.16], ["2022-06-04", 0.16], ["2022-06-04", 0.16], ["2022-06-05", 0.16], ["2022-06-06", 0.16], ["2022-06-07", 0.155], ["2022-06-08", 0.155], ["2022-06-08", 0.155], ["2022-06-09", 0.16], ["2022-06-09", 0.16], ["2022-06-09", 0.16], ["2022-06-09", 0.16], ["2022-06-11", 0.16], ["2022-06-12", 0.16], ["2022-06-12", 0.16], ["2022-06-14", 0.16], ["2022-06-14", 0.145], ["2022-06-15", 0.145], ["2022-06-15", 0.145], ["2022-06-16", 0.145], ["2022-06-17", 0.145], ["2022-06-17", 0.145], ["2022-06-17", 0.115], ["2022-06-18", 0.13], ["2022-06-18", 0.13], ["2022-06-19", 0.13], ["2022-06-20", 0.13], ["2022-06-20", 0.13], ["2022-06-21", 0.14], ["2022-06-21", 0.14], ["2022-06-22", 0.14], ["2022-06-22", 0.115], ["2022-06-22", 0.115], ["2022-06-23", 0.115], ["2022-06-24", 0.115], ["2022-06-24", 0.115], ["2022-06-24", 0.115], ["2022-06-25", 0.115], ["2022-06-25", 0.115], ["2022-06-26", 0.115], ["2022-06-26", 0.115], ["2022-06-27", 0.115], ["2022-06-27", 0.115], ["2022-06-29", 0.115], ["2022-06-29", 0.115], ["2022-06-30", 0.115], ["2022-06-30", 0.14], ["2022-07-01", 0.15], ["2022-07-01", 0.13], ["2022-07-01", 0.13], ["2022-07-02", 0.13], ["2022-07-02", 0.13], ["2022-07-02", 0.15], ["2022-07-02", 0.15], ["2022-07-02", 0.15], ["2022-07-03", 0.15], ["2022-07-03", 0.15], ["2022-07-04", 0.15], ["2022-07-05", 0.13], ["2022-07-05", 0.13], ["2022-07-06", 0.13], ["2022-07-07", 0.13], ["2022-07-07", 0.13], ["2022-07-07", 0.13], ["2022-07-08", 0.13], ["2022-07-08", 0.14], ["2022-07-08", 0.15], ["2022-07-09", 0.15], ["2022-07-09", 0.15], ["2022-07-10", 0.145], ["2022-07-11", 0.145], ["2022-07-12", 0.145], ["2022-07-13", 0.135], ["2022-07-13", 0.135], ["2022-07-14", 0.135], ["2022-07-14", 0.145], ["2022-07-15", 0.145], ["2022-07-15", 0.145], ["2022-07-15", 0.145], ["2022-07-15", 0.145], ["2022-07-16", 0.135], ["2022-07-17", 0.13], ["2022-07-18", 0.13], ["2022-07-18", 0.13], ["2022-07-18", 0.13]] | ["https://www.stratcom.mil/MEDIA/NEWS-ARTICLES/Search/trident/", "https://www.navy.mil/Press-Office/News-Stories/Article/2780845/uss-wyoming-successfully-tests-trident-ii-d5le-missiles/", "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/northrop-noc-arm-wins-deal-123012773.html", "https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2022.2062943", "https://planet4589.org/space/gcat/web/platforms/trident/ssbn-737.html", "https://www.space.com/minotaur-rocket-explodes-military-test-mission", "https://www.csp.navy.mil/SUBPAC-Commands/Submarines/Ballistic-Missile-Submarines/", "https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/trident/", "https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/minuteman-iii/", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-61701465", "https://www.stratcom.mil/Media/News/News-Article-View/Article/2781494/uss-wyoming-successfully-tests-trident-ii-d5le-missiles/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minotaur_II", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2370-between-29-april-2022-and-30-november-2022-will-north-korea-detonate-a-nuclear-device", "https://planet4589.org/space/gcat/web/platforms/trident/index.html", "https://missilethreat.csis.org/us-navy-test-launches-trident-ii-missile/", "https://planet4589.org/space/gcat/web/platforms/trident/ssbn-742.html", "https://twitter.com/US_STRATCOM/status/1537848523244306434", "https://twitter.com/us_stratcom/status/1537848521910525952", "https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-successfully-tested-lockheed-hypersonic-missile-this-week-sources-2022-07-13/", "https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/16/politics/us-air-force-nuclear-capable-missile/index.html", "https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/atacms/", "https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/39177/a-trident-submarine-launched-ballistic-missile-test-has-occurred-over-the-atlantic", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AGM-183_ARRW", "https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/39215/navy-confirms-its-trident-missile-test-was-what-everyone-saw-off-the-florida-coast-this-week", "https://www.csp.navy.mil/Media/News-Articles/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2021-10-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1963 |
<p>Molnupiravir, a drug being developed by Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, has shown positive results in clinical trials in combatting COVID-19 (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-treatments-for-covid-19-are-on-the-way" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/health/covid-19-pill-preliminary-testing-dr-marc-siegel" target="_blank">Fox News</a>, <a href="https://www.merck.com/news/ridgeback-biotherapeutics-and-merck-announce-preliminary-findings-from-a-phase-2a-trial-of-investigational-covid-19-therapeutic-molnupiravir/" target="_blank">Merck</a>). “Compassionate use" and "emergency use" authorizations would count (<a href="https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access" target="_blank">FDA</a>, <a href="https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization" target="_blank">FDA</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 3 August 2021</span>: FDA approval for molnupiravir for use in combination with other therapeutics to treat COVID-19 would count.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-10-01 | Will the US FDA approve the drug molnupiravir for use to treat COVID-19 before 1 October 2021? | 2021-03-12 | [["2021-03-12", 0.89], ["2021-03-12", 0.515], ["2021-03-12", 0.395], ["2021-03-12", 0.25], ["2021-03-12", 0.3], ["2021-03-13", 0.275], ["2021-03-13", 0.275], ["2021-03-13", 0.275], ["2021-03-13", 0.25], ["2021-03-13", 0.25], ["2021-03-13", 0.3], ["2021-03-13", 0.375], ["2021-03-14", 0.3], ["2021-03-14", 0.35], ["2021-03-14", 0.4], ["2021-03-14", 0.4], ["2021-03-14", 0.45], ["2021-03-14", 0.48], ["2021-03-15", 0.49], ["2021-03-15", 0.5], ["2021-03-15", 0.515], ["2021-03-16", 0.535], ["2021-03-16", 0.545], ["2021-03-16", 0.55], ["2021-03-16", 0.555], ["2021-03-16", 0.56], ["2021-03-16", 0.575], ["2021-03-16", 0.6], ["2021-03-17", 0.58], ["2021-03-17", 0.58], ["2021-03-17", 0.6], ["2021-03-17", 0.59], ["2021-03-17", 0.6], ["2021-03-17", 0.62], ["2021-03-18", 0.645], ["2021-03-18", 0.65], ["2021-03-18", 0.64], ["2021-03-18", 0.635], ["2021-03-18", 0.645], ["2021-03-19", 0.645], ["2021-03-19", 0.65], ["2021-03-19", 0.65], ["2021-03-19", 0.65], ["2021-03-20", 0.66], ["2021-03-21", 0.65], ["2021-03-22", 0.655], ["2021-03-23", 0.66], ["2021-03-23", 0.66], ["2021-03-24", 0.66], ["2021-03-25", 0.66], ["2021-03-26", 0.66], ["2021-03-27", 0.66], ["2021-03-27", 0.7], ["2021-03-28", 0.7], ["2021-03-28", 0.73], ["2021-03-28", 0.76], ["2021-03-28", 0.76], ["2021-03-29", 0.78], ["2021-03-30", 0.78], ["2021-03-30", 0.78], ["2021-03-30", 0.775], ["2021-03-31", 0.77], ["2021-03-31", 0.775], ["2021-03-31", 0.77], ["2021-03-31", 0.775], ["2021-03-31", 0.76], ["2021-03-31", 0.75], ["2021-04-01", 0.77], ["2021-04-01", 0.78], ["2021-04-01", 0.765], ["2021-04-02", 0.75], ["2021-04-03", 0.78], ["2021-04-05", 0.75], ["2021-04-07", 0.765], ["2021-04-08", 0.75], ["2021-04-09", 0.75], ["2021-04-10", 0.73], ["2021-04-11", 0.73], ["2021-04-14", 0.73], ["2021-04-16", 0.73], ["2021-04-16", 0.73], ["2021-04-18", 0.7], ["2021-04-18", 0.7], ["2021-04-19", 0.7], ["2021-04-20", 0.7], ["2021-04-21", 0.7], ["2021-04-21", 0.7], ["2021-04-22", 0.675], ["2021-04-22", 0.65], ["2021-04-22", 0.65], ["2021-04-23", 0.65], ["2021-04-23", 0.65], ["2021-04-23", 0.65], ["2021-04-23", 0.65], ["2021-04-24", 0.65], ["2021-04-25", 0.65], ["2021-04-25", 0.65], ["2021-04-25", 0.635], ["2021-04-26", 0.61], ["2021-04-26", 0.61], ["2021-04-26", 0.6], ["2021-04-27", 0.6], ["2021-04-27", 0.6], ["2021-04-27", 0.6], ["2021-04-28", 0.53], ["2021-04-28", 0.49], ["2021-04-29", 0.5], ["2021-04-30", 0.49], ["2021-04-30", 0.49], ["2021-05-01", 0.49], ["2021-05-01", 0.47], ["2021-05-01", 0.45], ["2021-05-01", 0.45], ["2021-05-02", 0.41], ["2021-05-02", 0.37], ["2021-05-02", 0.37], ["2021-05-02", 0.35], ["2021-05-03", 0.34], ["2021-05-03", 0.315], ["2021-05-03", 0.3], ["2021-05-03", 0.29], ["2021-05-04", 0.265], ["2021-05-05", 0.25], ["2021-05-05", 0.25], ["2021-05-05", 0.25], ["2021-05-06", 0.225], ["2021-05-06", 0.225], ["2021-05-07", 0.225], ["2021-05-09", 0.25], ["2021-05-10", 0.225], ["2021-05-10", 0.2], ["2021-05-10", 0.2], ["2021-05-11", 0.2], ["2021-05-11", 0.2], ["2021-05-11", 0.2], ["2021-05-12", 0.2], ["2021-05-12", 0.2], ["2021-05-14", 0.16], ["2021-05-15", 0.15], ["2021-05-16", 0.15], ["2021-05-17", 0.15], ["2021-05-18", 0.15], ["2021-05-20", 0.15], ["2021-05-21", 0.15], ["2021-05-22", 0.15], ["2021-05-25", 0.15], ["2021-05-25", 0.145], ["2021-05-25", 0.135], ["2021-05-25", 0.13], ["2021-05-26", 0.12], ["2021-05-27", 0.12], ["2021-05-27", 0.12], ["2021-05-27", 0.11], ["2021-05-27", 0.11], ["2021-05-29", 0.11], ["2021-05-29", 0.1], ["2021-05-30", 0.1], ["2021-05-30", 0.1], ["2021-05-31", 0.1], ["2021-06-01", 0.1], ["2021-06-03", 0.1], ["2021-06-06", 0.1], 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["https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04575597?term=NCT04575597&draw=2&rank=1", "https://www.pcori.org/evidence-synthesis/horizon-scanning/covid-19-scan-june-10-23-2021", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1319364", "https://www.newindianexpress.com/cities/hyderabad/2021/jul/10/hyderabad-based-hetero-drugs-seeks-emergency-use-authorisation-for-molnupiravir-2327970.html", "https://www.drugwatch.com/fda/approval-process/", "https://medicaldialogues.in/news/industry/pharma/covid-optimus-pharma-submits-phase-3-trials-interim-result-for-molnupiravir-capsules-80016", "https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04405739?intr=EIDD-2801", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/17/health/covid-pill-antiviral.html", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2021/06/17/biden-administration-plans-32-billion-investment-in-antiviral-pills-to-combat-covid/", "https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/merck-says-research-shows-its-covid-19-pill-works-against-variants-2021-09-29/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-03-25/merck-mrk-molnupiravir-pill-could-change-the-fight-against-covid", "https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2021/06/17/2021.06.17.21258639.full.pdf", "https://europepmc.org/article/PPR/PPR358608", "https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page#daily", "https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/analysis/molnupiravir-market/", "https://qz.com/2064787/a-daily-pill-to-treat-covid-could-be-just-months-away/", "https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/molnupiravir-trial-enrolment/", "http://www.pmlive.com/pharma_news/first_oral_antiviral_drug_for_covid-19_reviewed_by_health_canada_1375215", "https://www.contagionlive.com/view/single-dose-of-sputnik-v-vaccine-triggers-strong-response", "https://www.biopharminternational.com/view/merck-and-ridgeback-biotherapeutics-initiate-phase-iii-trial-to-evaluate-molnupiravir-for-covid-19", "https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04405570", "https://c19mp.com/", "https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04405739", "https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=LBdzDpQ0&id=004327B7545C64976AA7D7EAEA1C9F1CDD04D746&thid=OIP.LBdzDpQ0gnwnfB7CrRFqCQHaEM&mediaurl=https%3a%2f%2fwww.raps.org%2fRAPS%2fmedia%2fNewsfiles%2fuploadedImages%2fSite_Setup%2fRegulatory_Focus%2fNews%2f2015%2f01%2fPWC---Standard-Review-Times.jpg&cdnurl=https%3a%2f%2fth.bing.com%2fth%2fid%2fR.2c17730e9434827c277c1ec2ad116a09%3frik%3dRtcE3RyfHOrq1w%26pid%3dImgRaw&exph=453&expw=800&q=fda+approval+times&simid=608026180775323298&ck=72492E0293DABEA46AC3E3090762770B&selectedIndex=1&FORM=IRPRST&ajaxhist=0&ajaxserp=0", "https://consumer.healthday.com/u-s-to-spend-3-2-billion-to-help-develop-antiviral-pills-for-covid-19-2653450839.html"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2020-07-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1514 |
<p>In the midst of ongoing turmoil in Libya, Turkey has begun deploying armed forces to the country (<a href="https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/01/11/turkey-is-set-to-send-troops-to-libya" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-51003034" target="_blank">BBC</a>). Tensions are high as various international actors support different Libyan factions (<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/erdogan-warns-chaos-libya-hosts-merkel-200124110525617.html" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>, <a href="https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20200128-erdogan-slams-uae-for-funding-russian-mercenaries-in-libya/" target="_blank">Middle East Monitor</a>, <a href="https://fpif.org/turkeys-latest-quagmire-intervention-in-libya/" target="_blank">Foreign Policy in Focus</a>). Both the lethal confrontation and fatalities must occur during the question's open period to count.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>
| 2020-07-01 | Between 7 February 2020 and 30 June 2020, will a lethal confrontation in Libya result in eight or more fatalities for Turkish armed forces? | 2020-02-06 | [["2020-02-07", 0.955], ["2020-02-07", 0.95], ["2020-02-08", 0.525], ["2020-02-08", 0.22], ["2020-02-08", 0.15], ["2020-02-08", 0.085], ["2020-02-08", 0.08], ["2020-02-08", 0.08], ["2020-02-08", 0.08], ["2020-02-09", 0.07], ["2020-02-09", 0.055], ["2020-02-09", 0.055], ["2020-02-10", 0.065], ["2020-02-10", 0.05], ["2020-02-10", 0.05], ["2020-02-10", 0.05], ["2020-02-10", 0.065], ["2020-02-10", 0.08], ["2020-02-11", 0.08], ["2020-02-11", 0.08], ["2020-02-11", 0.115], ["2020-02-12", 0.15], ["2020-02-12", 0.15], ["2020-02-12", 0.15], ["2020-02-12", 0.15], ["2020-02-13", 0.15], ["2020-02-13", 0.15], ["2020-02-13", 0.15], ["2020-02-13", 0.15], ["2020-02-13", 0.15], ["2020-02-14", 0.15], ["2020-02-14", 0.15], ["2020-02-14", 0.15], ["2020-02-14", 0.15], ["2020-02-14", 0.15], ["2020-02-14", 0.15], ["2020-02-15", 0.15], 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["2020-06-30", 0.01], ["2020-06-30", 0.01], ["2020-06-30", 0.01], ["2020-06-30", 0.01], ["2020-07-01", 0.01], ["2020-07-01", 0.01]] | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-09-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1781 |
<p>CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners (<a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf" target="_blank">FEMA</a>). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, "terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) (<a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331" target="_blank">Cornell</a>). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. As of the resolution of this question, available evidence does not support any incident during the question's open period, including the 6 January 2021 Capitol riots, as having met all five elements that constitute a CCTA. Particularly, currently available reporting related to the 6 January 2021 Capitol riots indicates that these events met four out of five criteria needed for a CCTA.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-09-01 | Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021? | 2020-09-11 | [["2020-09-11", 0.0], ["2020-09-11", 0.0], ["2020-09-11", 0.01], ["2020-09-11", 0.03], ["2020-09-11", 0.1], ["2020-09-12", 0.13], ["2020-09-12", 0.105], ["2020-09-12", 0.08], ["2020-09-12", 0.08], ["2020-09-12", 0.05], ["2020-09-12", 0.05], ["2020-09-13", 0.045], ["2020-09-13", 0.05], ["2020-09-13", 0.045], ["2020-09-13", 0.05], ["2020-09-13", 0.1], ["2020-09-14", 0.1], ["2020-09-14", 0.125], ["2020-09-14", 0.1], ["2020-09-14", 0.1], ["2020-09-14", 0.1], ["2020-09-15", 0.15], ["2020-09-15", 0.165], ["2020-09-15", 0.18], ["2020-09-16", 0.2], ["2020-09-17", 0.175], ["2020-09-18", 0.175], ["2020-09-18", 0.18], ["2020-09-18", 0.2], ["2020-09-19", 0.15], ["2020-09-19", 0.125], ["2020-09-19", 0.125], ["2020-09-20", 0.18], ["2020-09-22", 0.165], ["2020-09-23", 0.165], ["2020-09-25", 0.165], ["2020-09-28", 0.15], ["2020-09-29", 0.165], ["2020-09-29", 0.165], ["2020-10-01", 0.18], ["2020-10-01", 0.18], ["2020-10-02", 0.2], ["2020-10-02", 0.2], ["2020-10-03", 0.2], ["2020-10-04", 0.215], ["2020-10-05", 0.25], ["2020-10-06", 0.245], ["2020-10-07", 0.245], ["2020-10-07", 0.25], ["2020-10-08", 0.25], ["2020-10-09", 0.25], ["2020-10-10", 0.24], ["2020-10-13", 0.235], ["2020-10-14", 0.245], ["2020-10-15", 0.22], ["2020-10-18", 0.245], ["2020-10-19", 0.25], ["2020-10-21", 0.25], ["2020-10-22", 0.25], ["2020-10-24", 0.25], ["2020-10-25", 0.25], ["2020-10-26", 0.25], ["2020-10-27", 0.24], ["2020-10-28", 0.25], ["2020-10-29", 0.25], ["2020-10-29", 0.25], ["2020-11-02", 0.25], ["2020-11-03", 0.25], ["2020-11-04", 0.25], ["2020-11-05", 0.25], ["2020-11-06", 0.28], ["2020-11-08", 0.285], ["2020-11-08", 0.285], ["2020-11-09", 0.28], ["2020-11-09", 0.28], ["2020-11-11", 0.28], ["2020-11-12", 0.28], ["2020-11-13", 0.28], ["2020-11-14", 0.28], ["2020-11-14", 0.27], ["2020-11-15", 0.27], ["2020-11-15", 0.26], ["2020-11-16", 0.26], ["2020-11-16", 0.255], ["2020-11-17", 0.255], ["2020-11-18", 0.25], ["2020-11-19", 0.25], ["2020-11-21", 0.24], ["2020-11-21", 0.24], ["2020-11-23", 0.255], ["2020-11-24", 0.24], ["2020-11-26", 0.24], ["2020-11-27", 0.24], ["2020-11-30", 0.25], ["2020-12-02", 0.25], ["2020-12-02", 0.25], ["2020-12-03", 0.25], ["2020-12-04", 0.25], ["2020-12-06", 0.25], ["2020-12-08", 0.25], ["2020-12-09", 0.25], ["2020-12-11", 0.25], ["2020-12-12", 0.25], ["2020-12-13", 0.25], ["2020-12-13", 0.25], ["2020-12-14", 0.25], ["2020-12-14", 0.25], ["2020-12-15", 0.25], ["2020-12-19", 0.25], ["2020-12-20", 0.25], ["2020-12-23", 0.25], ["2020-12-24", 0.25], ["2020-12-25", 0.25], ["2020-12-25", 0.245], ["2020-12-25", 0.245], ["2020-12-25", 0.25], ["2020-12-26", 0.25], ["2020-12-26", 0.25], ["2020-12-27", 0.25], ["2020-12-27", 0.25], ["2020-12-27", 0.24], ["2020-12-28", 0.225], ["2020-12-28", 0.225], ["2020-12-29", 0.21], ["2020-12-31", 0.21], ["2020-12-31", 0.21], ["2021-01-03", 0.19], ["2021-01-04", 0.19], ["2021-01-05", 0.2], ["2021-01-06", 0.22], ["2021-01-06", 0.24], ["2021-01-07", 0.24], ["2021-01-07", 0.24], ["2021-01-07", 0.24], ["2021-01-07", 0.25], ["2021-01-08", 0.25], ["2021-01-08", 0.25], ["2021-01-09", 0.25], ["2021-01-09", 0.25], ["2021-01-10", 0.25], ["2021-01-10", 0.25], ["2021-01-10", 0.26], ["2021-01-11", 0.26], ["2021-01-11", 0.25], ["2021-01-11", 0.25], ["2021-01-12", 0.25], ["2021-01-12", 0.27], ["2021-01-13", 0.27], ["2021-01-13", 0.28], ["2021-01-14", 0.28], ["2021-01-14", 0.28], ["2021-01-14", 0.28], ["2021-01-15", 0.3], ["2021-01-16", 0.3], ["2021-01-16", 0.3], ["2021-01-16", 0.3], ["2021-01-17", 0.3], ["2021-01-17", 0.3], ["2021-01-18", 0.3], ["2021-01-18", 0.3], ["2021-01-19", 0.3], ["2021-01-20", 0.3], ["2021-01-20", 0.3], ["2021-01-20", 0.3], ["2021-01-21", 0.3], ["2021-01-21", 0.29], ["2021-01-21", 0.275], ["2021-01-22", 0.275], ["2021-01-23", 0.275], ["2021-01-23", 0.275], ["2021-01-24", 0.27], ["2021-01-24", 0.27], ["2021-01-25", 0.29], ["2021-01-25", 0.29], ["2021-01-25", 0.275], ["2021-01-26", 0.27], ["2021-01-27", 0.26], ["2021-01-28", 0.26], ["2021-01-28", 0.25], ["2021-01-29", 0.25], ["2021-01-30", 0.25], ["2021-01-30", 0.25], ["2021-01-31", 0.26], ["2021-01-31", 0.26], ["2021-01-31", 0.27], ["2021-02-01", 0.26], ["2021-02-01", 0.26], ["2021-02-02", 0.26], ["2021-02-02", 0.255], ["2021-02-02", 0.25], ["2021-02-03", 0.25], ["2021-02-03", 0.25], ["2021-02-04", 0.25], ["2021-02-05", 0.25], ["2021-02-06", 0.25], ["2021-02-07", 0.25], ["2021-02-07", 0.25], ["2021-02-08", 0.25], ["2021-02-09", 0.25], ["2021-02-09", 0.22], ["2021-02-10", 0.22], ["2021-02-12", 0.205], ["2021-02-13", 0.19], ["2021-02-14", 0.19], ["2021-02-14", 0.18], ["2021-02-14", 0.2], ["2021-02-15", 0.2], ["2021-02-17", 0.2], ["2021-02-19", 0.2], ["2021-02-19", 0.2], ["2021-02-20", 0.2], ["2021-02-20", 0.18], ["2021-02-21", 0.18], ["2021-02-23", 0.18], ["2021-02-24", 0.185], ["2021-02-25", 0.185], ["2021-02-26", 0.185], ["2021-02-27", 0.18], ["2021-03-02", 0.18], ["2021-03-02", 0.18], ["2021-03-03", 0.18], ["2021-03-04", 0.2], ["2021-03-04", 0.2], ["2021-03-04", 0.2], ["2021-03-05", 0.2], ["2021-03-05", 0.2], ["2021-03-05", 0.19], ["2021-03-06", 0.175], ["2021-03-08", 0.165], ["2021-03-08", 0.15], ["2021-03-09", 0.15], ["2021-03-11", 0.15], ["2021-03-11", 0.15], ["2021-03-13", 0.15], ["2021-03-13", 0.15], ["2021-03-15", 0.15], ["2021-03-16", 0.15], ["2021-03-17", 0.15], ["2021-03-17", 0.15], ["2021-03-19", 0.15], ["2021-03-20", 0.15], ["2021-03-21", 0.15], ["2021-03-22", 0.15], ["2021-03-23", 0.15], ["2021-03-23", 0.15], ["2021-03-23", 0.15], ["2021-03-23", 0.15], ["2021-03-27", 0.14], ["2021-03-30", 0.14], ["2021-03-31", 0.14], ["2021-04-01", 0.14], ["2021-04-01", 0.14], ["2021-04-02", 0.135], ["2021-04-03", 0.125], ["2021-04-05", 0.12], ["2021-04-05", 0.12], ["2021-04-08", 0.115], ["2021-04-09", 0.11], ["2021-04-10", 0.11], ["2021-04-11", 0.1], ["2021-04-13", 0.1], ["2021-04-15", 0.1], ["2021-04-15", 0.1], ["2021-04-15", 0.1], ["2021-04-17", 0.1], ["2021-04-18", 0.1], ["2021-04-19", 0.1], ["2021-04-20", 0.1], ["2021-04-21", 0.1], ["2021-04-23", 0.1], ["2021-04-24", 0.1], ["2021-04-26", 0.1], ["2021-04-30", 0.1], ["2021-05-01", 0.1], ["2021-05-04", 0.1], ["2021-05-05", 0.1], ["2021-05-06", 0.1], ["2021-05-07", 0.095], ["2021-05-07", 0.09], ["2021-05-08", 0.09], ["2021-05-10", 0.08], ["2021-05-10", 0.08], ["2021-05-11", 0.08], ["2021-05-13", 0.08], ["2021-05-13", 0.08], ["2021-05-15", 0.075], ["2021-05-16", 0.07], ["2021-05-17", 0.07], ["2021-05-18", 0.07], ["2021-05-19", 0.07], ["2021-05-20", 0.07], ["2021-05-20", 0.07], ["2021-05-24", 0.07], ["2021-05-26", 0.07], ["2021-05-26", 0.07], ["2021-05-27", 0.065], ["2021-05-27", 0.06], ["2021-05-30", 0.06], ["2021-05-31", 0.06], ["2021-06-01", 0.06], ["2021-06-03", 0.06], ["2021-06-04", 0.06], ["2021-06-07", 0.055], ["2021-06-07", 0.055], ["2021-06-09", 0.05], ["2021-06-09", 0.05], ["2021-06-12", 0.05], ["2021-06-16", 0.05], ["2021-06-17", 0.05], ["2021-06-18", 0.05], ["2021-06-21", 0.05], ["2021-06-23", 0.05], ["2021-06-24", 0.05], ["2021-06-24", 0.05], ["2021-06-27", 0.05], ["2021-06-28", 0.05], ["2021-06-30", 0.05], ["2021-07-01", 0.05], ["2021-07-01", 0.05], ["2021-07-01", 0.05], ["2021-07-03", 0.05], ["2021-07-04", 0.05], ["2021-07-05", 0.05], ["2021-07-05", 0.05], ["2021-07-06", 0.05], ["2021-07-07", 0.05], ["2021-07-09", 0.04], ["2021-07-10", 0.04], ["2021-07-11", 0.04], ["2021-07-12", 0.04], ["2021-07-13", 0.04], ["2021-07-14", 0.03], ["2021-07-16", 0.03], ["2021-07-17", 0.03], ["2021-07-17", 0.03], ["2021-07-19", 0.03], ["2021-07-19", 0.03], ["2021-07-20", 0.03], ["2021-07-21", 0.03], ["2021-07-22", 0.03], ["2021-07-23", 0.03], ["2021-07-24", 0.03], ["2021-07-25", 0.02], ["2021-07-26", 0.02], ["2021-07-27", 0.02], ["2021-07-28", 0.02], ["2021-07-29", 0.02], ["2021-07-29", 0.02], ["2021-07-30", 0.02], ["2021-07-31", 0.02], ["2021-08-01", 0.02], ["2021-08-02", 0.02], ["2021-08-02", 0.02], ["2021-08-03", 0.02], ["2021-08-04", 0.02], ["2021-08-06", 0.015], ["2021-08-08", 0.01], ["2021-08-08", 0.01], ["2021-08-09", 0.01], ["2021-08-10", 0.01], ["2021-08-11", 0.01], ["2021-08-13", 0.01], ["2021-08-15", 0.01], ["2021-08-15", 0.01], ["2021-08-16", 0.01], ["2021-08-17", 0.01], ["2021-08-17", 0.01], ["2021-08-18", 0.01], ["2021-08-19", 0.01], ["2021-08-20", 0.01], ["2021-08-20", 0.01], ["2021-08-21", 0.01], ["2021-08-22", 0.01], ["2021-08-22", 0.01], ["2021-08-24", 0.01], ["2021-08-24", 0.01], ["2021-08-25", 0.01], ["2021-08-25", 0.01], ["2021-08-25", 0.005], ["2021-08-25", 0.0], ["2021-08-25", 0.0], ["2021-08-26", 0.0], ["2021-08-28", 0.0], ["2021-08-28", 0.0], ["2021-08-30", 0.0], ["2021-08-30", 0.0], ["2021-08-31", 0.0], ["2021-08-31", 0.0], ["2021-09-01", 0.0]] | ["https://unherd.com/2021/04/how-anarchists-captured-portland/", "https://www.intelligence.gov/index.php/publics-daily-brief/public-s-daily-brief-articles/1013-cia-seeks-innovation,-and-partnerships,-with-new-federal-lab", "https://www.foxnews.com/media/experts-afghanistan-al-qaeda-attack-terror-threat", "https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/times-watchdog/a-new-neo-nazi-group-in-spokane-harkens-back-to-era-of-virulent-extremism-in-the-northwest/", "https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/21/politics/kabul-airport-terror-warning/index.html", "https://abcnews.go.com/US/911-anniversary-covid-19-measures-spark-terrorist-attacks/story?id=79457547", "https://www.voanews.com/africa/nigeria-says-taliban-victory-puts-africa-terror-spotlight", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-laser-focused-potential-terrorist-attack-by-taliban-foes-says-security-2021-08-19/", "https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/27/capitol-officers-testimony-jan-6-hearing-500850", "https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/06/30/metro/there-are-no-lone-wolves-when-it-comes-white-supremacist-violence-expert-says-wake-winthrop-shooting/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xaSRQHYxfsg", "https://www.kuow.org/stories/extremist-groups-popping-up-left-and-right-in-pacific-northwest-law-enforcement-officials-say", "https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2021/8/9/2044764/-Proud-Boys-follow-their-new-script-by-using-Portland-anti-mask-rallies-to-crank-up-fresh-violence", "https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/08/1098112", "https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2021/06/25/attacks-from-lone-terrorists-in-the-us-are-more-severe-than-those-who-are-affiliated-with-groups/", "https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/woman-sentenced-198-months-prison-teaching-and-distributing-information-about-weapons-mass", "https://www.portlandmercury.com/blogtown/2021/08/09/35810834/good-morning-news-proud-boys-terrorize-downtown-shooting-on-trimet-and-un-releases-climate-report", "https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2021/08/26/press-briefing-by-press-secretary-jen-psaki-august-26-2021/", "https://abc7chicago.com/al-qaeda-terrorism-terrorist-attack-inspire-magazine/10918191/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/17/world/asia/taliban-afghanistan-al-qaeda.html", "https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2021-07-07/us-iran-violence-poised-to-escalate-after-new-strikes-on-american-bases-in-iraq", "https://www.adl.org/blog/al-qaeda-releases-america-burns-video-framing-us-as-nation-in-crisis", "https://localnews8.com/politics/idaho-politics/2021/08/17/ammon-bundy-campaigns-in-idaho-falls/", "https://www.justice.gov/usao-ndca/pr/two-charged-conspiracy-scheme-attack-democratic-headquarters-sacramento", "https://www.cia.gov/cia-labs/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-04-22 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2308 |
<p>The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC between 8 March 2022 and 22 April 2022 (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.SPX" target="_blank">CNBC</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-04-22 | Between 8 March 2022 and 22 April 2022, will the S&P 500 Index close at an all-time high? | 2022-03-09 | [["2022-03-15", 0.005], ["2022-03-15", 0.005], ["2022-03-15", 0.0], ["2022-03-15", 0.0], ["2022-03-15", 0.01], ["2022-03-15", 0.01], ["2022-03-15", 0.01], ["2022-03-15", 0.005], ["2022-03-15", 0.01], ["2022-03-15", 0.01], ["2022-03-15", 0.01], ["2022-03-15", 0.005], ["2022-03-15", 0.01], ["2022-03-16", 0.01], ["2022-03-16", 0.01], ["2022-03-16", 0.01], ["2022-03-16", 0.01], ["2022-03-16", 0.01], ["2022-03-16", 0.01], ["2022-03-16", 0.01], ["2022-03-16", 0.01], ["2022-03-16", 0.01], ["2022-03-16", 0.01], ["2022-03-16", 0.01], ["2022-03-16", 0.01], ["2022-03-16", 0.01], ["2022-03-16", 0.01], ["2022-03-16", 0.01], ["2022-03-16", 0.0], ["2022-03-16", 0.0], ["2022-03-16", 0.01], ["2022-03-16", 0.01], ["2022-03-16", 0.0], ["2022-03-16", 0.0], ["2022-03-16", 0.0], ["2022-03-17", 0.0], ["2022-03-17", 0.0], ["2022-03-17", 0.0], ["2022-03-17", 0.0], ["2022-03-17", 0.0], ["2022-03-17", 0.0], ["2022-03-17", 0.0], ["2022-03-17", 0.0], ["2022-03-17", 0.0], ["2022-03-17", 0.0], ["2022-03-17", 0.0], ["2022-03-17", 0.0], ["2022-03-17", 0.0], ["2022-03-18", 0.0], ["2022-03-18", 0.0], ["2022-03-18", 0.0], ["2022-03-18", 0.0], ["2022-03-18", 0.005], ["2022-03-18", 0.01], ["2022-03-18", 0.01], ["2022-03-18", 0.01], ["2022-03-19", 0.02], ["2022-03-19", 0.02], ["2022-03-19", 0.04], ["2022-03-20", 0.04], ["2022-03-20", 0.045], ["2022-03-20", 0.045], ["2022-03-20", 0.05], ["2022-03-21", 0.05], ["2022-03-21", 0.05], ["2022-03-21", 0.05], ["2022-03-21", 0.05], ["2022-03-21", 0.05], ["2022-03-21", 0.05], ["2022-03-21", 0.05], ["2022-03-22", 0.05], ["2022-03-22", 0.06], ["2022-03-22", 0.07], ["2022-03-22", 0.08], ["2022-03-22", 0.085], ["2022-03-22", 0.085], ["2022-03-22", 0.09], ["2022-03-22", 0.095], ["2022-03-22", 0.095], ["2022-03-22", 0.095], ["2022-03-22", 0.1], ["2022-03-23", 0.1], ["2022-03-23", 0.1], ["2022-03-23", 0.1], ["2022-03-23", 0.1], ["2022-03-23", 0.1], ["2022-03-23", 0.1], ["2022-03-23", 0.1], ["2022-03-23", 0.1], ["2022-03-24", 0.1], ["2022-03-24", 0.1], ["2022-03-24", 0.1], ["2022-03-24", 0.1], ["2022-03-24", 0.1], ["2022-03-24", 0.1], ["2022-03-24", 0.1], ["2022-03-24", 0.1], ["2022-03-24", 0.1], ["2022-03-24", 0.11], ["2022-03-25", 0.12], ["2022-03-25", 0.15], ["2022-03-25", 0.15], ["2022-03-25", 0.155], ["2022-03-25", 0.155], ["2022-03-25", 0.165], ["2022-03-25", 0.165], ["2022-03-25", 0.16], ["2022-03-25", 0.165], ["2022-03-25", 0.165], ["2022-03-26", 0.165], ["2022-03-26", 0.17], ["2022-03-26", 0.165], ["2022-03-26", 0.165], ["2022-03-26", 0.17], ["2022-03-26", 0.16], ["2022-03-26", 0.17], ["2022-03-27", 0.17], ["2022-03-27", 0.17], ["2022-03-27", 0.17], ["2022-03-27", 0.17], ["2022-03-28", 0.17], ["2022-03-28", 0.17], ["2022-03-28", 0.17], ["2022-03-28", 0.17], ["2022-03-28", 0.175], ["2022-03-29", 0.185], ["2022-03-29", 0.185], ["2022-03-29", 0.185], ["2022-03-29", 0.185], ["2022-03-29", 0.19], ["2022-03-29", 0.195], ["2022-03-29", 0.205], ["2022-03-29", 0.22], ["2022-03-29", 0.22], ["2022-03-29", 0.22], ["2022-03-29", 0.22], ["2022-03-29", 0.24], ["2022-03-29", 0.24], ["2022-03-29", 0.25], ["2022-03-30", 0.25], ["2022-03-30", 0.25], ["2022-03-30", 0.25], ["2022-03-30", 0.25], ["2022-03-30", 0.28], ["2022-03-30", 0.3], ["2022-03-30", 0.3], ["2022-03-30", 0.3], ["2022-03-30", 0.3], ["2022-03-30", 0.26], ["2022-03-31", 0.26], ["2022-03-31", 0.255], ["2022-03-31", 0.25], ["2022-03-31", 0.25], ["2022-03-31", 0.25], ["2022-03-31", 0.25], ["2022-03-31", 0.25], ["2022-03-31", 0.25], ["2022-03-31", 0.25], ["2022-03-31", 0.25], ["2022-03-31", 0.25], ["2022-03-31", 0.25], ["2022-03-31", 0.25], ["2022-03-31", 0.23], ["2022-04-01", 0.22], ["2022-04-01", 0.22], ["2022-04-01", 0.22], ["2022-04-01", 0.22], ["2022-04-01", 0.22], ["2022-04-01", 0.22], ["2022-04-02", 0.21], ["2022-04-02", 0.21], ["2022-04-02", 0.21], ["2022-04-02", 0.2], ["2022-04-02", 0.2], ["2022-04-03", 0.2], ["2022-04-03", 0.2], ["2022-04-03", 0.2], ["2022-04-03", 0.2], ["2022-04-03", 0.2], ["2022-04-04", 0.2], ["2022-04-04", 0.2], ["2022-04-04", 0.2], ["2022-04-04", 0.2], ["2022-04-04", 0.2], ["2022-04-04", 0.2], ["2022-04-04", 0.2], ["2022-04-04", 0.2], ["2022-04-04", 0.2], ["2022-04-04", 0.2], ["2022-04-04", 0.195], ["2022-04-05", 0.2], ["2022-04-05", 0.195], ["2022-04-05", 0.195], ["2022-04-05", 0.195], ["2022-04-05", 0.2], ["2022-04-05", 0.2], ["2022-04-05", 0.2], ["2022-04-05", 0.2], ["2022-04-05", 0.195], ["2022-04-05", 0.195], ["2022-04-05", 0.15], ["2022-04-06", 0.15], ["2022-04-06", 0.15], ["2022-04-06", 0.15], ["2022-04-06", 0.15], ["2022-04-06", 0.15], ["2022-04-06", 0.14], ["2022-04-06", 0.14], ["2022-04-06", 0.14], ["2022-04-06", 0.14], ["2022-04-06", 0.14], ["2022-04-06", 0.13], ["2022-04-06", 0.13], ["2022-04-07", 0.125], ["2022-04-07", 0.12], ["2022-04-07", 0.12], ["2022-04-07", 0.11], ["2022-04-07", 0.105], ["2022-04-07", 0.1], ["2022-04-07", 0.1], ["2022-04-07", 0.1], ["2022-04-07", 0.095], ["2022-04-07", 0.095], ["2022-04-07", 0.095], ["2022-04-07", 0.08], ["2022-04-07", 0.08], ["2022-04-07", 0.06], ["2022-04-07", 0.05], ["2022-04-07", 0.05], ["2022-04-08", 0.05], ["2022-04-08", 0.05], ["2022-04-08", 0.05], ["2022-04-08", 0.05], ["2022-04-08", 0.05], ["2022-04-08", 0.05], ["2022-04-08", 0.05], ["2022-04-08", 0.05], ["2022-04-08", 0.05], ["2022-04-08", 0.05], ["2022-04-08", 0.04], ["2022-04-08", 0.04], ["2022-04-09", 0.03], ["2022-04-09", 0.03], ["2022-04-09", 0.03], ["2022-04-10", 0.03], ["2022-04-10", 0.03], ["2022-04-10", 0.03], ["2022-04-11", 0.03], ["2022-04-11", 0.03], ["2022-04-11", 0.03], ["2022-04-11", 0.03], ["2022-04-11", 0.03], ["2022-04-11", 0.025], ["2022-04-11", 0.025], ["2022-04-11", 0.02], ["2022-04-11", 0.02], ["2022-04-12", 0.02], ["2022-04-12", 0.02], ["2022-04-12", 0.02], ["2022-04-12", 0.02], ["2022-04-12", 0.02], ["2022-04-12", 0.02], ["2022-04-12", 0.02], ["2022-04-12", 0.02], ["2022-04-12", 0.02], ["2022-04-13", 0.02], ["2022-04-13", 0.02], ["2022-04-13", 0.02], ["2022-04-13", 0.02], ["2022-04-13", 0.02], ["2022-04-13", 0.015], ["2022-04-13", 0.015], ["2022-04-14", 0.01], ["2022-04-14", 0.01], ["2022-04-14", 0.01], ["2022-04-14", 0.01], ["2022-04-14", 0.01], ["2022-04-14", 0.01], ["2022-04-14", 0.01], ["2022-04-14", 0.01], ["2022-04-14", 0.01], ["2022-04-14", 0.01], ["2022-04-14", 0.01], ["2022-04-15", 0.01], ["2022-04-15", 0.01], ["2022-04-15", 0.01], ["2022-04-15", 0.01], ["2022-04-16", 0.01], ["2022-04-16", 0.01], ["2022-04-16", 0.01], ["2022-04-17", 0.01], ["2022-04-18", 0.01], ["2022-04-18", 0.005], ["2022-04-18", 0.0], ["2022-04-18", 0.0], ["2022-04-18", 0.0], ["2022-04-18", 0.0], ["2022-04-18", 0.0], ["2022-04-18", 0.0], ["2022-04-18", 0.0], ["2022-04-18", 0.0], ["2022-04-18", 0.0], ["2022-04-18", 0.0], ["2022-04-18", 0.0], ["2022-04-18", 0.0], ["2022-04-19", 0.0], ["2022-04-19", 0.0], ["2022-04-19", 0.0], ["2022-04-19", 0.0], ["2022-04-19", 0.0], ["2022-04-19", 0.0], ["2022-04-19", 0.0], ["2022-04-19", 0.0], ["2022-04-19", 0.0], ["2022-04-19", 0.0], ["2022-04-20", 0.0], ["2022-04-20", 0.0], ["2022-04-20", 0.0], ["2022-04-20", 0.0], ["2022-04-20", 0.0], ["2022-04-21", 0.0], ["2022-04-21", 0.0], ["2022-04-21", 0.0], ["2022-04-21", 0.0], ["2022-04-21", 0.0], ["2022-04-22", 0.0], ["2022-04-22", 0.0]] | ["https://fred.stlouisfed.org/", "https://www.rbcgam.com/en/ca/learn-plan/investment-basics/investing-at-all-time-highs/detail", "https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042415/what-average-annual-return-sp-500.asp#:~:text=The%20S%26P%20500%20index%20acts,its%201957%20inception%20through%202021", "https://www.optionstrategist.com/calculators/probability", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1423303", "https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/wall-st-week-ahead-after-sizzling-rebound-investors-weigh-whether-stocks-have-2022-03-19/", "https://www.nyse.com/markets/hours-calendars", "https://www.businessinsider.nl/the-stock-market-is-set-for-more-short-term-upside-after-wall-streets-fear-gauge-falls-5-days-in-a-row-quant-trading-firm-says/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-27/u-s-big-cap-stocks-turn-into-world-s-top-haven-as-risk-rises?srnd=premium", "https://github.com/Paelle669/Paelle669/blob/main/GSPC%2020220422"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2020-11-14 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1743 |
<p>Tensions between Lebanon and Israel have flared recently (<a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/3-israeli-tanks-breach-lebanese-border/1938281" target="_blank">Anadolu Agency</a>, <a href="https://www.arabnews.com/node/1717476" target="_blank">Arab News</a>). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the forces of either side. A lethal confrontation in the airspace or territorial waters of either country would count.</p><p></p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2020-11-14 | Before 14 November 2020, will there be a lethal confrontation in Lebanon or Israel between the armed forces of Hezbollah and those of Israel? | 2020-08-14 | [["2020-08-14", 0.5], ["2020-08-14", 0.75], ["2020-08-14", 0.75], ["2020-08-14", 0.525], ["2020-08-14", 0.7], ["2020-08-14", 0.675], ["2020-08-15", 0.6], ["2020-08-15", 0.39], ["2020-08-15", 0.465], ["2020-08-15", 0.3], 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True | 2022-11-09 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2159 |
<p>Rep. Greene was elected to her first term in 2020 and is expected to face a tough reelection campaign in 2022 (<a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Marjorie_Taylor_Greene" target="_blank">Ballotpedia</a>, <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/575375-greene-challenger-raises-13m-in-latest-quarter" target="_blank">The Hill</a>, <a href="https://www.northwestgeorgianews.com/rome/news/local/gop-challenger-files-to-face-marjorie-taylor-greene-in-primary/article_2f184f66-1582-11ec-a3ea-076b5bfebf93.html" target="_blank">Rome News-Tribune</a>). Elections are scheduled for 8 November 2022 (<a href="https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Congress_elections,_2022" target="_blank">Ballotpedia</a>). If the outcome is dependent upon a runoff election, the suspend date will be extended to the date of the latest relevant runoff. If the outcome is dependent upon a recount, the question will remain suspended and closed as of 8 November 2022 when the outcome is known.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2022-11-09 | Will Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene be reelected for Georgia's 14th Congressional District in 2022? | 2021-10-14 | [["2021-10-15", 1.0], ["2021-10-15", 0.7666666666666667], ["2021-10-15", 0.726], ["2021-10-15", 0.7185714285714285], ["2021-10-16", 0.70375], ["2021-10-17", 0.741], ["2021-10-17", 0.711], ["2021-10-17", 0.779], ["2021-10-18", 0.643], ["2021-10-18", 0.682], ["2021-10-18", 0.574], ["2021-10-18", 0.567], ["2021-10-18", 0.552], ["2021-10-18", 0.669], ["2021-10-19", 0.6881818181818182], ["2021-10-19", 0.74], ["2021-10-20", 0.75], ["2021-10-20", 0.7458333333333333], ["2021-10-21", 0.7766666666666666], ["2021-10-21", 0.7661538461538462], ["2021-10-22", 0.7769230769230769], ["2021-10-25", 0.7192307692307692], ["2021-10-25", 0.6446153846153846], ["2021-10-27", 0.6430769230769231], ["2021-10-27", 0.6364285714285715], ["2021-10-27", 0.5757142857142857], ["2021-10-27", 0.5478571428571428], ["2021-10-28", 0.5342857142857143], ["2021-10-28", 0.4866666666666667], ["2021-10-29", 0.47875], ["2021-11-01", 0.485625], ["2021-11-03", 0.45625], ["2021-11-06", 0.465625], ["2021-11-07", 0.47375], ["2021-11-09", 0.49], ["2021-11-10", 0.489375], ["2021-11-14", 0.5105882352941177], ["2021-11-17", 0.5252941176470588], ["2021-11-19", 0.5394117647058824], ["2021-11-24", 0.5605882352941176], ["2021-12-01", 0.5688888888888889], ["2021-12-02", 0.5672222222222222], ["2021-12-02", 0.6094444444444445], ["2021-12-03", 0.6077777777777778], ["2021-12-04", 0.6122222222222222], ["2021-12-06", 0.6327777777777778], ["2021-12-07", 0.6268421052631579], ["2021-12-08", 0.5857894736842105], ["2021-12-12", 0.6263157894736842], ["2021-12-13", 0.6105263157894737], ["2021-12-17", 0.625], ["2021-12-19", 0.6225], ["2021-12-20", 0.6225], ["2021-12-24", 0.6375], ["2021-12-27", 0.64], ["2021-12-29", 0.6225], ["2021-12-29", 0.6004761904761905], ["2021-12-29", 0.6054545454545455], ["2021-12-29", 0.6130434782608696], ["2021-12-29", 0.6425], ["2021-12-30", 0.6058333333333333], ["2021-12-30", 0.5848], 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["2022-06-28", 0.7656818181818181], ["2022-07-01", 0.7772727272727272], ["2022-07-01", 0.7834090909090909], ["2022-07-05", 0.7884444444444444], ["2022-07-08", 0.7895555555555556], ["2022-07-12", 0.7908888888888889], ["2022-07-14", 0.7908888888888889], ["2022-07-14", 0.7968888888888889], ["2022-07-15", 0.8197826086956522], ["2022-07-16", 0.8215217391304348], ["2022-07-18", 0.821304347826087], ["2022-07-26", 0.8254347826086956], ["2022-07-30", 0.8271739130434783], ["2022-08-01", 0.8489130434782609], ["2022-08-05", 0.8510869565217392], ["2022-08-06", 0.8528260869565217], ["2022-08-08", 0.8557446808510638], ["2022-08-12", 0.8546808510638297], ["2022-08-15", 0.8557446808510638], ["2022-08-17", 0.8563829787234043], ["2022-08-20", 0.8613], ["2022-08-23", 0.8615], ["2022-08-25", 0.8626], ["2022-08-27", 0.8785], ["2022-08-29", 0.8817], ["2022-08-30", 0.8821], ["2022-08-30", 0.8838], ["2022-09-09", 0.8846], ["2022-09-10", 0.8835], ["2022-09-11", 0.8835], ["2022-09-13", 0.8921], ["2022-09-16", 0.8919], ["2022-09-18", 0.8931], ["2022-09-19", 0.8931], ["2022-09-20", 0.8933], ["2022-09-21", 0.8937], ["2022-09-25", 0.8968], ["2022-09-26", 0.9062], ["2022-09-28", 0.9092], ["2022-10-01", 0.9094], ["2022-10-02", 0.9116], ["2022-10-03", 0.9118], ["2022-10-06", 0.9078], ["2022-10-09", 0.9078], ["2022-10-11", 0.9033], ["2022-10-12", 0.9071], ["2022-10-12", 0.9071], ["2022-10-16", 0.9067], ["2022-10-16", 0.9083], ["2022-10-17", 0.9094], ["2022-10-18", 0.91], ["2022-10-20", 0.9098], ["2022-10-22", 0.9098], ["2022-10-24", 0.926], ["2022-10-27", 0.9265], ["2022-10-30", 0.9237], ["2022-11-01", 0.9242], ["2022-11-02", 0.926], ["2022-11-03", 0.927], ["2022-11-03", 0.9277], ["2022-11-04", 0.93], ["2022-11-04", 0.9408], ["2022-11-04", 0.9409], ["2022-11-05", 0.9428], ["2022-11-07", 0.943], ["2022-11-07", 0.9451], ["2022-11-08", 0.9453], ["2022-11-09", 0.9455], ["2022-11-09", 0.9455]] | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourteenth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/28/judge-says-trump-likely-broke-the-law-by-trying-to-obstruct-congress-from-confirming-biden-win.html", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/lawsuit-seeks-block-insurrectionist-marjorie-taylor-greene-reelection-bid-2022-03-24", "https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/fourteenth_amendment_0", "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/feb/26/republican-congresswoman-marjorie-taylor-greene-cpac", "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/rep-marjorie-taylor-greene-warns-nancy-pelosis-gazpacho-police-rcna15620", "https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/05/06/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-ballot/index.html", "https://fivethirtyeight.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/rogersskelley.MTG_.0301.png?w=1400", "https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia%27s_14th_Congressional_District_election,_2022", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/2022/05/17/marcus-flowers-marjorie-taylor-greene-fundraising/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1383488", "https://www.11alive.com/article/news/local/lawsuit-challenges-3-georgia-congressional-district-maps/85-7992c395-aaa9-4260-ad6d-465b505fee0d", "https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/marjorie-taylor-greene-fundraising.html", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/house/georgia/14/", "https://www.bozemandailychronicle.com/ap_news/politics/hopefuls-line-up-to-challenge-marjorie-taylor-greene-but-shell-be-hard-to-beat/article_bf84b7ed-8912-5452-8f82-b5c3584a1ff6.html", "https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/08/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-candidacy-challenge-lawsuit/index.html", "https://jewishinsider.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/20220727/GA-2022-CD14-GOP-Primary-Survey-Topline.pdf", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Georgia#District_14", "https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2GA14044/?cycle=2022&election_full=true", "https://bit.ly/3GSHNxy", "https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-georgia-marjorie-taylor-greene-congress-1a3adca947abd4af6ae8a2f5e0cc901a", "https://www.lawfareblog.com/14th-amendments-disqualification-provision-and-events-jan-6", "https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc819286/", "https://genevatelegraphnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/trump-elect-clown-expect-circus.jpg", "https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00815290/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2023-07-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2433 |
<p>As the Federal Reserve increases interest rates to combat inflation, there are concerns whether the US will be pushed into recession (<a href="https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/gl/en/insights/investing/can-the-fed-rein-in-inflation-without-causing-a-recession" target="_blank">JP Morgan</a>, <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/finance/3533286-fed-chief-says-recession-a-possibility-as-bank-hikes-rates/" target="_blank">The Hill</a>, <a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-06-23/traders-scale-back-peak-interest-rate-bets-as-recession-fears-grip" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>). Conditional announcements (e.g., if the labor market deteriorates, if inflation falls) would not count. The last time the Federal Reserve announced a cut to the US federal funds rate was 15 March 2020 (<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200315a.htm" target="_blank">Federal Reserve</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-07-01 | Before 1 July 2023, will the Federal Reserve announce a cut in the US federal funds rate? | 2022-07-01 | [["2022-07-01", 0.4166666666666667], ["2022-07-01", 0.45666666666666667], ["2022-07-01", 0.405], ["2022-07-02", 0.405], ["2022-07-02", 0.451], ["2022-07-02", 0.397], ["2022-07-02", 0.565], ["2022-07-02", 0.531], ["2022-07-03", 0.496], ["2022-07-03", 0.568], ["2022-07-03", 0.469], ["2022-07-03", 0.43], ["2022-07-04", 0.3981818181818182], ["2022-07-04", 0.3258333333333333], ["2022-07-05", 0.29307692307692307], ["2022-07-05", 0.3192857142857143], ["2022-07-05", 0.34285714285714286], ["2022-07-05", 0.3028571428571429], ["2022-07-06", 0.3466666666666667], ["2022-07-06", 0.364], ["2022-07-06", 0.41125], ["2022-07-07", 0.385], ["2022-07-07", 0.3522222222222222], ["2022-07-08", 0.34157894736842104], ["2022-07-08", 0.3745], ["2022-07-08", 0.41], ["2022-07-08", 0.4245], 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0.1074], ["2023-03-28", 0.111], ["2023-03-29", 0.1104], ["2023-03-29", 0.1108], ["2023-03-29", 0.1097], ["2023-03-30", 0.111], ["2023-04-01", 0.1226], ["2023-04-02", 0.1305], ["2023-04-02", 0.1282], ["2023-04-03", 0.1263], ["2023-04-04", 0.1246], ["2023-04-07", 0.1271], ["2023-04-07", 0.127], ["2023-04-08", 0.1307], ["2023-04-09", 0.1288], ["2023-04-09", 0.1291], ["2023-04-10", 0.1293], ["2023-04-10", 0.1314], ["2023-04-12", 0.1305], ["2023-04-12", 0.1309], ["2023-04-12", 0.1315], ["2023-04-12", 0.1298], ["2023-04-13", 0.1289], ["2023-04-14", 0.1286], ["2023-04-15", 0.1284], ["2023-04-16", 0.1274], ["2023-04-18", 0.127], ["2023-04-18", 0.1258], ["2023-04-19", 0.1265], ["2023-04-20", 0.1273], ["2023-04-20", 0.1322], ["2023-04-21", 0.1383], ["2023-04-23", 0.1392], ["2023-04-24", 0.1352], ["2023-04-25", 0.1292], ["2023-04-26", 0.1292], ["2023-04-27", 0.126], ["2023-04-28", 0.1323], ["2023-04-29", 0.1317], ["2023-05-01", 0.1317], ["2023-05-01", 0.1327], ["2023-05-02", 0.1324], ["2023-05-02", 0.137], ["2023-05-03", 0.1318], ["2023-05-04", 0.1467], ["2023-05-05", 0.1437], ["2023-05-05", 0.1437], ["2023-05-06", 0.1434], ["2023-05-07", 0.1496], ["2023-05-08", 0.1479], ["2023-05-09", 0.1541], ["2023-05-10", 0.1535], ["2023-05-10", 0.1444], ["2023-05-11", 0.1409], ["2023-05-11", 0.1412], ["2023-05-12", 0.1414], ["2023-05-13", 0.1394], ["2023-05-14", 0.139], ["2023-05-15", 0.1368], ["2023-05-17", 0.1407], ["2023-05-17", 0.1406], ["2023-05-18", 0.1387], ["2023-05-19", 0.1379], ["2023-05-19", 0.136], ["2023-05-20", 0.1421], ["2023-05-21", 0.1401], ["2023-05-21", 0.1392], ["2023-05-23", 0.1296], ["2023-05-23", 0.1302], ["2023-05-23", 0.13], ["2023-05-24", 0.1289], ["2023-05-25", 0.1236], ["2023-05-26", 0.1235], ["2023-05-27", 0.1232], ["2023-05-27", 0.1231], ["2023-05-28", 0.1223], ["2023-05-30", 0.1247], ["2023-05-30", 0.1235], ["2023-05-30", 0.1238], ["2023-05-31", 0.1216], ["2023-05-31", 0.13], ["2023-06-01", 0.121], ["2023-06-01", 0.1197], ["2023-06-02", 0.1177], ["2023-06-03", 0.1166], ["2023-06-04", 0.1107], ["2023-06-05", 0.109], ["2023-06-06", 0.1086], ["2023-06-07", 0.109], ["2023-06-08", 0.1082], ["2023-06-08", 0.1154], ["2023-06-08", 0.1153], ["2023-06-09", 0.1172], ["2023-06-10", 0.1164], ["2023-06-10", 0.1162], ["2023-06-11", 0.1154], ["2023-06-11", 0.1156], ["2023-06-13", 0.1146], ["2023-06-13", 0.1125], ["2023-06-14", 0.1108], ["2023-06-14", 0.1098], ["2023-06-15", 0.1091], ["2023-06-15", 0.1106], ["2023-06-16", 0.1023], ["2023-06-16", 0.1004], ["2023-06-17", 0.1022], ["2023-06-17", 0.0997], ["2023-06-19", 0.099], ["2023-06-20", 0.0989], ["2023-06-20", 0.0981], ["2023-06-21", 0.098], ["2023-06-21", 0.0975], ["2023-06-22", 0.0927], ["2023-06-24", 0.092], ["2023-06-24", 0.092], ["2023-06-24", 0.0898], ["2023-06-24", 0.083], ["2023-06-25", 0.0754], ["2023-06-26", 0.069], ["2023-06-26", 0.0689], ["2023-06-27", 0.0683], ["2023-06-28", 0.0674], ["2023-06-29", 0.0674], ["2023-06-30", 0.0674], ["2023-07-01", 0.0596], ["2023-07-01", 0.0596]] | ["https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/view-us-payrolls-surged-more-than-expected-april-2023-05-05/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-16/banks-rush-to-backstop-liquidity-borrow-164-8-billion-from-fed", "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/feds-kashkari-says-hes-sticking-54-rate-hike-view-after-surprising-jobs-report-2023-02-07/", "https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html", "http://www.bloomberg.com/", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/fed-deliver-two-25-basis-point-hikes-q1-followed-by-long-pause-2023-01-20/", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/least-two-more-fed-rate-hikes-no-cut-this-year-say-economists-2023-02-14/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-21/jpmorgan-model-shows-recession-odds-fall-sharply-across-markets", "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-model-shows-recession-odds-131045579.html", "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230614a.htm", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/federal-reserve-likely-to-skip-interest-rate-hike-at-next-meeting-in-june-officials-signal/ar-AA1bXDet", "https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/boardmeetings/20230313closed.htm", "https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2004/september/federal-funds-discount-rate/", "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/do-blockbuster-job-gains-jive-with-slow-flation-feds-powell-faces-new-dilemma-2023-02-07/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_systemically_important_banks", "https://www.ft.com/content/cfeb7645-d9d2-41f0-9020-7ee02226a9df", "https://twitter.com/Nouriel/status/1634968220015939585", "https://us.cnn.com/2023/03/12/investing/stocks-week-ahead/index.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-03-19/history-has-a-warning-for-jay-powell-on-how-to-handle-a-banking-crisis", "https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/fed-to-hold-emergency-meeting-on-monday-amid-svbs-swift-collapse-432SI-3028156", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-17/where-to-look-for-signs-financial-turmoil-is-impacting-the-us-economy", "https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federal_discount_rate.asp", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Federal_Open_Market_Committee_actions"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-10-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2554 |
<p>Israel has stated that it would not allow Iran to possess a nuclear weapon, which is widely seen to include a possible military strike by Israel against Iran (<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/23/israelis-u-s-iran-nuclear-deal-00053363" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/26/analysis-increased-israel-iran-confrontations-risk-war" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>, <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/israeli-knesset-member-nir-barkat-israel-will-attack-iran-necessary" target="_blank">FOXNews</a>). The geographic origin of and weaponry used in a military strike would be immaterial so long as the weapon detonates or discharges on Iranian territory. A cyberattack alone would not count. Actions not executed by the IDF would not count (e.g., covert assassinations of nuclear scientists). A strike in or over Iranian territorial waters would not count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? 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To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-10-01 | Before 1 October 2023, will the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) execute a military strike within the territory of Iran? | 2022-09-22 | [["2022-09-23", 0.005], ["2022-09-23", 0.2625], ["2022-09-23", 0.2], ["2022-09-23", 0.2186], ["2022-09-24", 0.22], ["2022-09-24", 0.199], ["2022-09-24", 0.185], ["2022-09-24", 0.2186], ["2022-09-24", 0.2131], ["2022-09-24", 0.2506], ["2022-09-25", 0.2379], ["2022-09-25", 0.2265], ["2022-09-25", 0.2248], ["2022-09-25", 0.2357], ["2022-09-25", 0.2471], ["2022-09-25", 0.2435], ["2022-09-26", 0.2321], ["2022-09-26", 0.2245], ["2022-09-26", 0.22], ["2022-09-26", 0.2378], ["2022-09-26", 0.2279], ["2022-09-26", 0.2373], ["2022-09-26", 0.2413], ["2022-09-27", 0.2413], ["2022-09-27", 0.2559], ["2022-09-27", 0.2437], ["2022-09-28", 0.2475], ["2022-09-28", 0.205], ["2022-09-29", 0.1565], ["2022-09-29", 0.1556], ["2022-09-30", 0.1483], ["2022-10-01", 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0.0189], ["2023-09-26", 0.018], ["2023-09-27", 0.0162], ["2023-09-27", 0.0158], ["2023-09-28", 0.0153], ["2023-09-28", 0.015], ["2023-09-29", 0.0145], ["2023-09-29", 0.0143], ["2023-09-30", 0.0136], ["2023-10-01", 0.0133]] | ["https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-746663", "https://www.jpost.com/opinion/columnists/rattling-the-cage-still-want-to-bomb-iran", "https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/analysis-of-iaea-iran-verification-and-monitoring-report-may-2023", "https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-754463", "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-no-closer-attack-iran-nuclear-sites-official-says-2023-06-30/", "https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/23/06/gov2023-24.pdf", "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/west-bank-violence-stirs-cauldron-mideast-conflict-2023-06-29/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/four-syrian-soldiers-killed-israeli-attack-damascus-state-media-2023-08-07/", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/02/uk-to-breach-iran-nuclear-deal-with-refusal-to-lift-sanctions", "https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/iran-slows-buildup-of-near-weapons-grade-enriched-uranium-492df473", "https://www.rferl.org/a/farda-briefing-questions-iran-hypersonic-missile/32448695.html", "https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/07/israeli-army-faces-internal-fissures-over-judicial-overhaul-iran-watches", "https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-745953", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/14/us/politics/biden-iran-nuclear-program.html", "https://apnews.com/article/iran-nuclear-natanz-uranium-enrichment-underground-project-04dae673fc937af04e62b65dd78db2e0", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/05/lebanon-israel-blue-line-un/", "https://www.newsweek.com/israel-sends-message-iran-hezbollah-first-ever-us-army-drill-1805143", "https://www.vox.com/2023/7/23/23804795/israel-protests-judicial-reforms-netanyahu-likud-idf", "https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-07-14/ty-article/.premium/iran-gets-an-unwritten-deal-from-the-u-s-as-israel-gets-a-bear-hug/00000189-508e-d2fd-abdd-daae79910000", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/10/us/politics/iran-us-prisoner-swap.html", "https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-754467", "http://www.skynrws/", "https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-754386", "https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-751863", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/16/us/politics/iran-nuclear-program-tehran.html"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-05-28 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2376 |
<p>Top Gun: Maverick is the first sequel to the 1986 blockbuster Top Gun (<a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0092099/" target="_blank">IMDb</a>). The question will be suspended on 27 May 2022 and the outcome determined using non-estimate data as reported by Box Office Mojo for the Memorial Day weekend of 27-30 May 2022 (<a href="https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt1745960/" target="_blank">Box Office Mojo</a>, see "Domestic Weekend"). The film is scheduled to be released in theaters on 27 May 2022.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>
| 2022-05-31 | Will the US domestic box office gross in the opening weekend for Top Gun: Maverick reach or exceed $45 million, according to Box Office Mojo? | 2022-04-29 | [["2022-04-30", 1.0], ["2022-04-30", 0.9], ["2022-04-30", 1.0], ["2022-04-30", 1.0], ["2022-04-30", 1.0], ["2022-04-30", 0.995], ["2022-04-30", 1.0], ["2022-05-01", 1.0], ["2022-05-01", 1.0], ["2022-05-01", 0.995], ["2022-05-01", 0.99], ["2022-05-01", 0.985], ["2022-05-02", 0.99], ["2022-05-02", 0.995], ["2022-05-02", 1.0], ["2022-05-02", 1.0], ["2022-05-02", 1.0], ["2022-05-03", 0.99], ["2022-05-03", 0.99], ["2022-05-04", 0.98], ["2022-05-04", 0.98], ["2022-05-04", 0.95], ["2022-05-05", 0.995], ["2022-05-05", 1.0], ["2022-05-05", 1.0], ["2022-05-05", 0.995], ["2022-05-05", 0.995], ["2022-05-05", 0.995], ["2022-05-05", 0.995], ["2022-05-05", 0.99], ["2022-05-06", 0.99], ["2022-05-06", 0.99], ["2022-05-06", 0.99], ["2022-05-07", 0.99], ["2022-05-07", 0.97], ["2022-05-07", 0.95], ["2022-05-07", 0.97], ["2022-05-07", 0.99], ["2022-05-08", 0.97], ["2022-05-09", 0.97], ["2022-05-09", 0.99], ["2022-05-09", 0.99], ["2022-05-10", 0.97], ["2022-05-10", 0.97], ["2022-05-10", 0.95], ["2022-05-10", 0.95], ["2022-05-10", 0.9], ["2022-05-10", 0.85], ["2022-05-10", 0.85], ["2022-05-10", 0.775], ["2022-05-10", 0.75], ["2022-05-10", 0.8], ["2022-05-10", 0.775], ["2022-05-10", 0.81], ["2022-05-10", 0.81], ["2022-05-10", 0.785], ["2022-05-11", 0.75], ["2022-05-11", 0.75], ["2022-05-11", 0.82], ["2022-05-11", 0.82], ["2022-05-12", 0.8], ["2022-05-12", 0.8], ["2022-05-12", 0.8], ["2022-05-12", 0.8], ["2022-05-13", 0.8], ["2022-05-13", 0.8], ["2022-05-14", 0.8], ["2022-05-15", 0.775], ["2022-05-15", 0.75], ["2022-05-15", 0.775], ["2022-05-15", 0.8], ["2022-05-16", 0.81], ["2022-05-16", 0.835], ["2022-05-16", 0.85], ["2022-05-16", 0.85], ["2022-05-17", 0.85], ["2022-05-18", 0.85], ["2022-05-18", 0.85], ["2022-05-18", 0.85], ["2022-05-18", 0.85], ["2022-05-21", 0.85], ["2022-05-22", 0.85], ["2022-05-22", 0.85], ["2022-05-23", 0.85], ["2022-05-23", 0.85], ["2022-05-23", 0.85], ["2022-05-23", 0.85], ["2022-05-23", 0.85], ["2022-05-24", 0.85], ["2022-05-25", 0.85], ["2022-05-25", 0.85], ["2022-05-25", 0.85], ["2022-05-25", 0.85], ["2022-05-25", 0.85], ["2022-05-25", 0.85], ["2022-05-25", 0.85], ["2022-05-25", 0.85], ["2022-05-25", 0.85], ["2022-05-26", 0.85], ["2022-05-26", 0.865], ["2022-05-26", 0.865], ["2022-05-26", 0.865], ["2022-05-26", 0.915], ["2022-05-26", 0.915], ["2022-05-26", 0.915], ["2022-05-26", 0.95], ["2022-05-26", 0.88], ["2022-05-27", 0.88], ["2022-05-27", 0.875], ["2022-05-28", 0.915], ["2022-05-28", 0.915]] | ["https://www.boxofficemojo.com/calendar/?ref_=bo_nb_tt_tab", "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2449573377/", "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/chart/top_opening_weekend/", "https://today.yougov.com/topics/entertainment/explore/actor/Tom_Cruise?content=surveys", "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/chart/top_grossing_month/?by_occasion=may&ref_=bo_csm_ac", "https://www.in2013dollars.com/us/inflation/1986?amount=8193052", "https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-top-gun-maverick-and-bobs-burgers/#:~:text=Long%20Range%20Box%20Office%20Forecast%3A%20Top%20Gun%3A%20Maverick,%20Paramount%20Pictures%20%202%20more%20rows%20", "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl3724903937/?ref_=bo_ml_table_1", "https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-top-gun-maverick-and-bobs-burgers/", "https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-top-gun-maverick-targets-tom-cruises-first-100m-opener-and-potential-memorial-day-records/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2023-04-17 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2788 |
<p>As Ukraine pleads for hesitant Western nations to give it fighter jets, Slovakia has offered to provide Ukraine with ten of its MiG-29 fighter jets (<a href="https://www.dw.com/en/can-and-will-slovakia-send-fighter-jets-to-ukraine/a-64849362" target="_blank">Deutsche Welle</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/slovakia-nato-ukraine-fighter-jets-weapons-7374f6219ed9edff190437621ec84bc1" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/03/02/slovakia-considering-giving-ukraine-10-of-its-11-soviet-made-mig-29-planes/" target="_blank">Euromaidan Press</a>). Jets would be considered transferred to Ukraine upon being physically relocated to Ukrainian territory. Overflights of Ukraine by the aircraft under Slovak or NATO command would not count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 20 March 2023</span>: The state of readiness of transferred Slovak MiG-29 fighter jets would be immaterial.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-04-18 | Will eight or more Slovak MiG-29 fighter jets be transferred to Ukraine before 1 September 2023? | 2023-03-07 | [["2023-03-08", 1.0], ["2023-03-08", 1.0], ["2023-03-08", 0.9967], ["2023-03-08", 0.9475], ["2023-03-08", 0.88], ["2023-03-08", 0.8167], ["2023-03-08", 0.8286], ["2023-03-09", 0.85], ["2023-03-09", 0.8367], ["2023-03-09", 0.784], ["2023-03-09", 0.782], ["2023-03-09", 0.7582], ["2023-03-09", 0.7075], ["2023-03-09", 0.7408], ["2023-03-09", 0.7262], ["2023-03-09", 0.7029], ["2023-03-09", 0.6927], ["2023-03-09", 0.65], ["2023-03-09", 0.6519], ["2023-03-09", 0.6588], ["2023-03-09", 0.6361], ["2023-03-09", 0.6553], ["2023-03-09", 0.6547], ["2023-03-10", 0.672], ["2023-03-10", 0.6876], ["2023-03-10", 0.6791], ["2023-03-10", 0.6565], ["2023-03-11", 0.6561], ["2023-03-11", 0.6557], ["2023-03-11", 0.657], ["2023-03-11", 0.6713], ["2023-03-12", 0.6071], ["2023-03-12", 0.5588], ["2023-03-12", 0.5754], ["2023-03-12", 0.6673], ["2023-03-12", 0.6882], ["2023-03-12", 0.6864], ["2023-03-13", 0.6483], ["2023-03-13", 0.6108], ["2023-03-14", 0.5692], ["2023-03-14", 0.565], ["2023-03-14", 0.49], ["2023-03-14", 0.4985], ["2023-03-14", 0.4977], ["2023-03-14", 0.4631], ["2023-03-14", 0.4915], ["2023-03-14", 0.4915], ["2023-03-14", 0.5171], ["2023-03-14", 0.544], ["2023-03-14", 0.5473], ["2023-03-15", 0.5475], ["2023-03-15", 0.5365], ["2023-03-15", 0.4888], ["2023-03-16", 0.4653], ["2023-03-16", 0.468], ["2023-03-16", 0.4825], ["2023-03-16", 0.4856], ["2023-03-16", 0.4806], ["2023-03-16", 0.5039], ["2023-03-16", 0.51], ["2023-03-16", 0.4837], ["2023-03-16", 0.4863], ["2023-03-16", 0.51], ["2023-03-16", 0.5155], ["2023-03-17", 0.51], ["2023-03-17", 0.5386], ["2023-03-17", 0.5245], ["2023-03-17", 0.5336], ["2023-03-17", 0.5336], ["2023-03-17", 0.5518], ["2023-03-17", 0.5791], ["2023-03-17", 0.5917], ["2023-03-17", 0.593], ["2023-03-17", 0.5961], ["2023-03-17", 0.5961], ["2023-03-17", 0.6157], ["2023-03-17", 0.6222], ["2023-03-17", 0.6313], ["2023-03-17", 0.646], ["2023-03-17", 0.6667], ["2023-03-17", 0.6771], ["2023-03-17", 0.658], ["2023-03-17", 0.658], ["2023-03-17", 0.6654], ["2023-03-17", 0.6808], ["2023-03-17", 0.7038], ["2023-03-17", 0.7058], ["2023-03-17", 0.71], ["2023-03-17", 0.7272], ["2023-03-17", 0.7272], ["2023-03-17", 0.7272], ["2023-03-17", 0.7377], ["2023-03-17", 0.7673], ["2023-03-18", 0.7731], ["2023-03-18", 0.7444], ["2023-03-18", 0.7744], ["2023-03-18", 0.7736], ["2023-03-18", 0.7814], ["2023-03-19", 0.7807], ["2023-03-19", 0.7803], ["2023-03-19", 0.7993], ["2023-03-19", 0.8512], ["2023-03-19", 0.8768], ["2023-03-20", 0.8833], ["2023-03-20", 0.8833], ["2023-03-20", 0.8792], ["2023-03-20", 0.8771], ["2023-03-20", 0.8645], ["2023-03-20", 0.86], ["2023-03-20", 0.8659], ["2023-03-20", 0.9], ["2023-03-21", 0.9014], ["2023-03-21", 0.9073], ["2023-03-21", 0.9132], ["2023-03-21", 0.8927], ["2023-03-22", 0.8952], ["2023-03-22", 0.8952], ["2023-03-22", 0.8948], ["2023-03-23", 0.8991], ["2023-03-23", 0.8996], ["2023-03-23", 0.8996], ["2023-03-23", 0.8887], ["2023-03-23", 0.8822], ["2023-03-23", 0.8843], ["2023-03-23", 0.887], ["2023-03-23", 0.8857], ["2023-03-23", 0.8952], ["2023-03-24", 0.8939], ["2023-03-24", 0.8922], ["2023-03-24", 0.903], ["2023-03-24", 0.9113], ["2023-03-25", 0.9126], ["2023-03-25", 0.9126], ["2023-03-25", 0.9109], ["2023-03-25", 0.9146], ["2023-03-26", 0.915], ["2023-03-26", 0.9167], ["2023-03-27", 0.9271], ["2023-03-27", 0.9271], ["2023-03-27", 0.9321], ["2023-03-28", 0.9342], ["2023-03-28", 0.9338], ["2023-03-29", 0.9317], ["2023-03-29", 0.9338], ["2023-03-29", 0.9342], ["2023-04-01", 0.9508], ["2023-04-01", 0.9513], ["2023-04-02", 0.9525], ["2023-04-02", 0.9525], ["2023-04-02", 0.9525], ["2023-04-02", 0.9546], ["2023-04-03", 0.948], ["2023-04-03", 0.9496], ["2023-04-03", 0.9456], ["2023-04-06", 0.9536], ["2023-04-06", 0.9576], ["2023-04-07", 0.9576], ["2023-04-07", 0.958], ["2023-04-07", 0.9552], ["2023-04-07", 0.9576], ["2023-04-08", 0.9569], ["2023-04-09", 0.9515], ["2023-04-09", 0.95], ["2023-04-09", 0.9535], ["2023-04-10", 0.9535], ["2023-04-10", 0.9535], ["2023-04-10", 0.9535], ["2023-04-10", 0.9523], ["2023-04-10", 0.9523], ["2023-04-11", 0.9527], ["2023-04-12", 0.9527], ["2023-04-14", 0.96], ["2023-04-15", 0.96], ["2023-04-16", 0.96], ["2023-04-17", 0.96]] | ["https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/slovakia-hands-over-all-13-promised-mig-fighter-jets-ukraine-2023-04-17/", "https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-us-slovakia-jets-c13dbb2e63da577e1f0d0f77050822e1", "https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2023/03/14/ukraine-russia-war-live-updates/11469948002/", "https://tvpworld.com/68684665/first-slovakian-mig-jets-reach-ukraine", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/17/ukraine-slovakia-to-donate-13-mig-29-warplanes", "http://www.skynews.com/", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/24/slovakia-delivers-first-4-soviet-era-mig-29-jets-to-ukraine", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Air_Force#Equipment", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/03/09/are-slovakia-and-poland-finally-serious-about-giving-ukraine-their-old-mig-29s/?sh=e0aa84368c34", "https://www.ft.com/content/4be5f777-9a3a-4b00-837a-91077d0f4e5b", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/03/09/are-slovakia-and-poland-finally-serious-about-giving-ukraine-their-old-mig-29s/", "https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/news/2023/03/12/7157830/", "https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2022/09/usaf-puts-harms-mig-29s-cruise-missiles-c-130s-cargo-b-29s/377452/", "https://www.msn.com/en-za/news/other/can-and-will-slovakia-send-fighter-jets-to-ukraine/ar-AA18990a", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/slovak-government-send-mig-29-fighter-jets-ukraine-pm-2023-03-17/", "https://www.barrons.com/news/slovakia-to-donate-13-mig-29-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-pm-b95716e3", "https://www.tasr.sk/tasr-clanok/TASR:2023032700000376", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/05/world/us-ukraine-f16-pilots-intl-hnk/index.html", "https://www.dw.com/en/can-and-will-slovakia-send-fighter-jets-to-ukraine/a-64849362", "https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-slovakia-to-send-mig-29-jets-to-ukraine/a-65021539", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/power-station-strike-knocks-out-electricity-in-russian-border-region-4d016bdb", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/slovak-defence-minister-says-time-decide-sending-mig-29-jets-ukraine-2023-03-09/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2021-09-18 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1789 |
<p>Prime Minister Boris Johnson's premiership began in July 2019 after Theresa May stepped down (<a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Boris-Johnson" target="_blank">Britannica</a>). He continues to lead the UK through final Brexit negotiations with the EU (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/brexit-and-covid-19-show-up-the-disunited-kingdom" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54156419" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/keir-starmer-coronavirus-self-isolating-labour-covid-19-symptoms-b435681.html" target="_blank">Independent</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-09-18 | Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom? | 2020-09-17 | [["2020-09-18", 0.6], ["2020-09-18", 0.73], ["2020-09-18", 0.2], ["2020-09-18", 0.225], ["2020-09-18", 0.125], ["2020-09-18", 0.1], ["2020-09-18", 0.1], ["2020-09-19", 0.075], ["2020-09-19", 0.05], ["2020-09-19", 0.075], ["2020-09-19", 0.05], ["2020-09-19", 0.1], ["2020-09-19", 0.1], ["2020-09-19", 0.11], ["2020-09-19", 0.12], ["2020-09-20", 0.17], ["2020-09-20", 0.2], ["2020-09-20", 0.17], ["2020-09-20", 0.2], ["2020-09-21", 0.14], ["2020-09-21", 0.175], ["2020-09-21", 0.175], ["2020-09-21", 0.2], ["2020-09-21", 0.15], ["2020-09-22", 0.165], ["2020-09-22", 0.15], ["2020-09-22", 0.15], ["2020-09-22", 0.15], ["2020-09-23", 0.15], ["2020-09-23", 0.145], ["2020-09-23", 0.15], ["2020-09-24", 0.15], ["2020-09-24", 0.145], ["2020-09-25", 0.145], ["2020-09-26", 0.15], ["2020-09-26", 0.15], 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"https://www.businessinsider.com/uk-boris-johnson-avoids-isolation-following-javid-covid-19-exposure-2021-7", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/aug/07/boris-johnson-approval-rating-slips-to-lowest-level-since-he-became-prime-minister", "https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/boris-johnson-approval-rating", "https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-news-live-brexit-b1898963.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/sep/12/rightwing-media-hang-boris-johnson-out-to-dry-on-social-care", "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-57933129", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/24/world/europe/uk-conservatives-blue-wall.html", "https://www.thenational.scot/news/19473661.police-pay-freeze-boris-johnson-defends-priti-patel-row/", "https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1416764592043315204", "https://www.ft.com/content/4cd31f6a-7caa-4ac7-8d9e-7c6fd418a507", "https://www.google.com/search?q=conseravtive+party+conference+2021&oq=conseravtive+party+conference+2021&aqs=chrome..69i57.3712j0j7&{google:bookmarkBarPinned}sourceid=chrome&{google:instantExtendedEnabledParameter}{google:omniboxStartMarginParameter}ie=UTF-8", "https://www.polfed.org/herts/news/2021/letter-reveals-officers-anger-at-government/", "https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/tories-hit-poll-slump-boris-johnson-suffers-backlash-1131214", "https://www.politico.eu/article/united-kingdom-coronavirus-pingdemic-end-date-august-boris-johnson/", "https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-mps-lockdown-sceptics-boris-johnson-coronavirus-b1820249.html", "https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=GB&q=vote%20of%20no%20confidence", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-k-s-boris-johnson-will-self-isolate-for-10-days-11626626679", "https://news.sky.com/story/police-federation-to-write-to-boris-johnson-criticising-pay-freeze-and-new-beating-crime-plan-12364865", "https://theconversation.com/inside-the-tory-rebellion-against-foreign-aid-cuts-162373", "https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9778331/Britain-isnt-working.html"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-12-08 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2620 |
<p>Amid the ongoing war in Ukraine, the US is reportedly negotiating for the release of Brittney Griner and other Americans imprisoned in Russia (<a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/brittney-griner-meets-us-officials-russia-white-house/story?id=92616275" target="_blank">ABC News</a>, <a href="https://www.espn.com/wnba/story/_/id/34877115/brittney-griner-russia-drug-case-line-prison-trial-more" target="_blank">ESPN</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2022-12-08 | Before 11 March 2023, will American basketball player Brittney Griner leave Russia? | 2022-11-11 | [["2022-11-11", 0.33], ["2022-11-11", 0.215], ["2022-11-11", 0.2267], ["2022-11-11", 0.195], ["2022-11-11", 0.186], ["2022-11-11", 0.1867], ["2022-11-11", 0.1817], ["2022-11-11", 0.2029], ["2022-11-12", 0.2038], ["2022-11-12", 0.2033], ["2022-11-12", 0.19], ["2022-11-12", 0.2364], ["2022-11-12", 0.2292], ["2022-11-12", 0.23], ["2022-11-12", 0.2523], ["2022-11-12", 0.2521], ["2022-11-12", 0.2353], ["2022-11-12", 0.2206], ["2022-11-12", 0.2371], ["2022-11-12", 0.2328], ["2022-11-12", 0.2205], ["2022-11-13", 0.2095], ["2022-11-13", 0.1995], ["2022-11-13", 0.1981], ["2022-11-13", 0.1914], ["2022-11-13", 0.1874], ["2022-11-13", 0.1829], ["2022-11-13", 0.1876], ["2022-11-13", 0.1819], ["2022-11-13", 0.1789], ["2022-11-14", 0.1761], ["2022-11-14", 0.1761], ["2022-11-14", 0.1772], ["2022-11-14", 0.1776], ["2022-11-14", 0.1723], ["2022-11-14", 0.1861], ["2022-11-14", 0.1794], ["2022-11-14", 0.177], ["2022-11-14", 0.1761], ["2022-11-15", 0.1678], ["2022-11-15", 0.1458], ["2022-11-15", 0.1441], ["2022-11-15", 0.1315], ["2022-11-15", 0.1326], ["2022-11-15", 0.1296], ["2022-11-16", 0.1291], ["2022-11-16", 0.1379], ["2022-11-16", 0.13], ["2022-11-16", 0.1283], ["2022-11-16", 0.1479], ["2022-11-17", 0.1426], ["2022-11-17", 0.138], ["2022-11-17", 0.1314], ["2022-11-17", 0.131], ["2022-11-17", 0.1268], ["2022-11-17", 0.1278], ["2022-11-17", 0.13], ["2022-11-17", 0.1304], ["2022-11-17", 0.1279], ["2022-11-18", 0.129], ["2022-11-18", 0.1495], ["2022-11-18", 0.15], ["2022-11-18", 0.1465], ["2022-11-18", 0.1415], ["2022-11-18", 0.1824], ["2022-11-19", 0.2214], ["2022-11-20", 0.2159], ["2022-11-20", 0.2555], ["2022-11-20", 0.2505], ["2022-11-20", 0.2595], ["2022-11-21", 0.2777], ["2022-11-21", 0.2773], ["2022-11-21", 0.2652], ["2022-11-21", 0.2635], ["2022-11-22", 0.2652], ["2022-11-22", 0.2661], ["2022-11-23", 0.2648], ["2022-11-24", 0.2746], ["2022-11-24", 0.2742], ["2022-11-25", 0.2738], ["2022-11-25", 0.2729], ["2022-11-26", 0.2563], ["2022-11-26", 0.2563], ["2022-11-26", 0.2542], ["2022-11-27", 0.2567], ["2022-11-28", 0.26], ["2022-11-28", 0.2746], ["2022-11-28", 0.2763], ["2022-11-28", 0.2742], ["2022-11-30", 0.2708], ["2022-11-30", 0.2704], ["2022-12-01", 0.2696], ["2022-12-02", 0.2692], ["2022-12-02", 0.2704], ["2022-12-02", 0.2996], ["2022-12-03", 0.282], ["2022-12-03", 0.2823], ["2022-12-03", 0.2804], ["2022-12-04", 0.28], ["2022-12-05", 0.2792], ["2022-12-05", 0.2788], ["2022-12-05", 0.2796], ["2022-12-06", 0.2788], ["2022-12-06", 0.2785], ["2022-12-06", 0.2842], ["2022-12-06", 0.2862], ["2022-12-08", 0.2862]] | ["https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/28/world/europe/prisoner-swaps-exchanges-us.html", "https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-12-08-22/index.html", "https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63675119.amp", "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/biden-says-he-hopes-putin-will-negotiate-wnba-star-brittney-griners-release", "https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-us-officials-holding-talks-turkey-kommersant-2022-11-14/", "https://www.foxnews.com/sports/brittney-griner-released-russian-prison-swap-convicted-arms-dealer", "https://youtu.be/3fUdfVZUjB0"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2021-04-23 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1820 |
<p>Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha faces an array of challenges, including calls for him to resign and protests in the streets of Bangkok against the actions of the monarchy (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54573349" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/thailand-pm-refuses-to-step-down-as-protesters-defy-police/a-55301495" target="_blank">Deutsche Welle</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/19/asia/thailand-weekend-protests-monarchy-intl-hnk/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>).</p><p></p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-04-23 | Will Prayut Chan-o-cha cease to be the prime minister of Thailand before 23 April 2021? | 2020-10-23 | [["2020-10-23", 1.0], ["2020-10-23", 0.62], ["2020-10-23", 0.65], ["2020-10-23", 0.735], ["2020-10-23", 0.7], ["2020-10-23", 0.685], ["2020-10-23", 0.67], ["2020-10-23", 0.66], ["2020-10-23", 0.66], ["2020-10-23", 0.66], ["2020-10-24", 0.65], ["2020-10-24", 0.575], ["2020-10-24", 0.45], ["2020-10-24", 0.575], ["2020-10-24", 0.585], ["2020-10-24", 0.585], ["2020-10-24", 0.585], ["2020-10-24", 0.45], ["2020-10-24", 0.45], ["2020-10-24", 0.45], ["2020-10-24", 0.435], ["2020-10-25", 0.435], ["2020-10-25", 0.435], ["2020-10-25", 0.435], ["2020-10-25", 0.36], ["2020-10-25", 0.435], ["2020-10-25", 0.435], ["2020-10-25", 0.425], ["2020-10-25", 0.325], ["2020-10-25", 0.3], ["2020-10-25", 0.25], ["2020-10-25", 0.25], ["2020-10-25", 0.25], ["2020-10-25", 0.3], ["2020-10-25", 0.3], ["2020-10-26", 0.375], ["2020-10-26", 0.375], ["2020-10-26", 0.275], ["2020-10-26", 0.275], ["2020-10-27", 0.255], ["2020-10-27", 0.16], ["2020-10-27", 0.15], ["2020-10-28", 0.15], ["2020-10-28", 0.16], ["2020-10-28", 0.155], ["2020-10-28", 0.17], ["2020-10-28", 0.17], ["2020-10-28", 0.185], ["2020-10-28", 0.185], ["2020-10-28", 0.19], ["2020-10-28", 0.19], ["2020-10-28", 0.19], ["2020-10-28", 0.185], ["2020-10-29", 0.15], ["2020-10-29", 0.15], ["2020-10-29", 0.15], ["2020-10-30", 0.185], ["2020-10-31", 0.18], ["2020-10-31", 0.18], ["2020-10-31", 0.19], ["2020-11-01", 0.19], ["2020-11-01", 0.19], ["2020-11-01", 0.18], ["2020-11-03", 0.185], ["2020-11-03", 0.19], ["2020-11-04", 0.185], ["2020-11-04", 0.185], ["2020-11-05", 0.185], ["2020-11-06", 0.185], ["2020-11-06", 0.185], ["2020-11-06", 0.185], ["2020-11-07", 0.185], ["2020-11-07", 0.175], ["2020-11-07", 0.16], ["2020-11-08", 0.16], ["2020-11-08", 0.15], ["2020-11-08", 0.15], ["2020-11-09", 0.15], ["2020-11-09", 0.15], ["2020-11-09", 0.15], ["2020-11-09", 0.14], ["2020-11-09", 0.14], ["2020-11-10", 0.14], ["2020-11-10", 0.14], ["2020-11-11", 0.14], ["2020-11-11", 0.13], ["2020-11-11", 0.13], ["2020-11-11", 0.12], ["2020-11-11", 0.15], ["2020-11-11", 0.15], ["2020-11-11", 0.135], ["2020-11-12", 0.135], ["2020-11-12", 0.11], ["2020-11-12", 0.1], ["2020-11-13", 0.1], ["2020-11-13", 0.1], ["2020-11-13", 0.1], ["2020-11-14", 0.1], ["2020-11-14", 0.1], ["2020-11-14", 0.1], ["2020-11-14", 0.1], ["2020-11-15", 0.1], ["2020-11-15", 0.1], ["2020-11-16", 0.1], ["2020-11-16", 0.1], ["2020-11-16", 0.1], ["2020-11-16", 0.1], ["2020-11-17", 0.1], ["2020-11-17", 0.1], ["2020-11-17", 0.1], ["2020-11-17", 0.09], ["2020-11-17", 0.09], ["2020-11-18", 0.09], ["2020-11-18", 0.09], ["2020-11-18", 0.09], ["2020-11-19", 0.09], ["2020-11-19", 0.09], ["2020-11-21", 0.09], ["2020-11-22", 0.09], ["2020-11-23", 0.09], ["2020-11-23", 0.09], ["2020-11-23", 0.09], ["2020-11-24", 0.1], ["2020-11-26", 0.1], ["2020-11-26", 0.1], ["2020-11-26", 0.1], ["2020-11-27", 0.1], ["2020-11-27", 0.11], ["2020-11-27", 0.11], ["2020-11-28", 0.11], ["2020-12-01", 0.11], ["2020-12-01", 0.125], ["2020-12-01", 0.125], ["2020-12-02", 0.135], ["2020-12-02", 0.135], ["2020-12-02", 0.11], ["2020-12-02", 0.1], ["2020-12-03", 0.095], ["2020-12-03", 0.095], ["2020-12-04", 0.085], ["2020-12-04", 0.085], ["2020-12-04", 0.085], ["2020-12-05", 0.075], ["2020-12-06", 0.075], ["2020-12-06", 0.075], ["2020-12-06", 0.075], ["2020-12-07", 0.075], ["2020-12-07", 0.065], ["2020-12-08", 0.075], ["2020-12-08", 0.085], ["2020-12-08", 0.085], ["2020-12-09", 0.085], ["2020-12-09", 0.085], ["2020-12-10", 0.085], ["2020-12-11", 0.085], ["2020-12-11", 0.085], ["2020-12-11", 0.075], ["2020-12-12", 0.07], ["2020-12-13", 0.07], ["2020-12-13", 0.07], ["2020-12-13", 0.07], ["2020-12-13", 0.07], ["2020-12-13", 0.07], ["2020-12-15", 0.07], ["2020-12-16", 0.07], ["2020-12-17", 0.07], ["2020-12-18", 0.07], ["2020-12-18", 0.07], ["2020-12-19", 0.07], ["2020-12-19", 0.07], ["2020-12-19", 0.07], ["2020-12-20", 0.07], ["2020-12-20", 0.06], ["2020-12-21", 0.06], ["2020-12-21", 0.06], ["2020-12-21", 0.06], ["2020-12-21", 0.06], ["2020-12-21", 0.05], ["2020-12-22", 0.05], ["2020-12-22", 0.05], ["2020-12-22", 0.05], ["2020-12-23", 0.05], ["2020-12-23", 0.05], ["2020-12-23", 0.045], ["2020-12-23", 0.035], ["2020-12-24", 0.03], ["2020-12-24", 0.03], ["2020-12-25", 0.03], ["2020-12-26", 0.03], ["2020-12-26", 0.03], ["2020-12-26", 0.03], ["2020-12-27", 0.03], ["2020-12-27", 0.03], ["2020-12-29", 0.03], ["2020-12-29", 0.025], ["2020-12-29", 0.025], ["2020-12-29", 0.025], ["2020-12-30", 0.025], ["2020-12-30", 0.025], ["2020-12-31", 0.02], ["2020-12-31", 0.02], ["2020-12-31", 0.02], ["2021-01-03", 0.025], ["2021-01-03", 0.025], ["2021-01-03", 0.02], ["2021-01-04", 0.02], ["2021-01-04", 0.02], ["2021-01-04", 0.02], ["2021-01-05", 0.02], ["2021-01-05", 0.02], ["2021-01-05", 0.02], ["2021-01-06", 0.02], ["2021-01-07", 0.02], ["2021-01-08", 0.02], ["2021-01-10", 0.02], ["2021-01-12", 0.02], ["2021-01-12", 0.02], ["2021-01-13", 0.02], ["2021-01-14", 0.02], ["2021-01-14", 0.02], ["2021-01-16", 0.02], ["2021-01-16", 0.02], ["2021-01-18", 0.02], ["2021-01-19", 0.02], ["2021-01-20", 0.02], ["2021-01-22", 0.02], ["2021-01-23", 0.02], ["2021-01-24", 0.02], ["2021-01-25", 0.02], ["2021-01-25", 0.02], ["2021-01-27", 0.015], ["2021-01-27", 0.015], ["2021-01-27", 0.015], ["2021-01-28", 0.015], ["2021-01-30", 0.015], ["2021-01-30", 0.02], 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0.01], ["2021-03-08", 0.01], ["2021-03-11", 0.01], ["2021-03-13", 0.01], ["2021-03-16", 0.01], ["2021-03-17", 0.01], ["2021-03-17", 0.01], ["2021-03-19", 0.01], ["2021-03-19", 0.01], ["2021-03-19", 0.01], ["2021-03-21", 0.01], ["2021-03-21", 0.01], ["2021-03-22", 0.01], ["2021-03-22", 0.01], ["2021-03-22", 0.01], ["2021-03-22", 0.01], ["2021-03-23", 0.01], ["2021-03-23", 0.01], ["2021-03-23", 0.01], ["2021-03-23", 0.01], ["2021-03-25", 0.01], ["2021-03-27", 0.01], ["2021-03-28", 0.01], ["2021-03-29", 0.01], ["2021-03-29", 0.01], ["2021-03-29", 0.005], ["2021-03-30", 0.0], ["2021-03-30", 0.0], ["2021-03-30", 0.0], ["2021-03-31", 0.0], ["2021-03-31", 0.0], ["2021-03-31", 0.0], ["2021-03-31", 0.0], ["2021-04-01", 0.0], ["2021-04-01", 0.0], ["2021-04-01", 0.0], ["2021-04-01", 0.0], ["2021-04-01", 0.0], ["2021-04-02", 0.0], ["2021-04-02", 0.0], ["2021-04-02", 0.0], ["2021-04-03", 0.0], ["2021-04-04", 0.0], ["2021-04-05", 0.0], ["2021-04-05", 0.0], ["2021-04-05", 0.0], ["2021-04-05", 0.0], 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"https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/thailand-protests-ban-arrests-prayut-chan-o-cha-resign-b1222485.html%3famp", "https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-asia-27526495", "https://www.thephuketnews.com/jatuporn-calls-for-unity-in-seeking-prayut-removal-79569.php", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/19/un-rights-office-calls-on-thailand-to-amend-royal-insult-law", "https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1R20OV", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-thailand-protests/thai-pm-found-not-guilty-in-conflict-of-interest-case-idUSKBN28C13G", "https://www.chiangraitimes.com/thailand-national-news/thailand-politics-thailand-national-news/corruption-soars-under-the-watchful-eye-of-gen-prayut-chan-o-cha/", "https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/politics/2028951/prayut-cleared-in-military-housing-case", "https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/thailand-protests-youth/", "https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/protests/pm-prayut-chan-o-chas-legal-team-to-review-new-activist-movement", "https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/myanmar-junta-leader-asks-thai-counterpart-for-help-on-democracy", "https://thethaiger.com/news/national/pm-prayut-chan-o-cha-calls-bluff-on-claims-that-he-benefits-from-illegal-gambling", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Minister_of_Thailand#:~:text=In%20accordance%20with%20the%20constitution,%C3%A9tat%20on%2022%20May%202014", "https://thediplomat.com/2021/03/can-southeast-asia-follow-south-koreas-democratization-model/", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-thailand-election/thai-youth-party-fails-to-make-gains-in-local-poll-idUSKBN28V1B0?il=0", "https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/02/03/asia-pacific/thailand-king-insult-penalties/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Thai_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat", "https://www.reddit.com/r/Thailand/comments/mpbq4j/prayuth_unlocked_his_golden_skin_after_being_an/", "https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/thailand-prime-minister-prayut-acquitted-of-ethics-breach-13684270"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-09-29 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2904 |
<p>As the race to develop artificial intelligence heats up, both Alphabet and Microsoft are vying for position (<a href="https://observer.com/2023/04/google-microsofts-ceo-ai-progress/" target="_blank">Observer</a>, <a href="https://nypost.com/2023/05/10/google-integrates-more-ai-into-products-in-battle-with-microsoft/" target="_blank">NY Post</a>). The question will be suspended on 28 September 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Google Finance (<a href="https://www.google.com/finance/quote/GOOGL:NASDAQ?window=6M" target="_blank">Google Finance - Alphabet</a>, Class A shares, <a href="https://www.google.com/finance/quote/MSFT:NASDAQ" target="_blank">Google Finance - Microsoft</a>). The closing values of each stock for 29 September 2023 will be divided by their respective closing values for 9 June 2023 to determine the performance, or percentage change. The difference in percentage points of each calculation will determine the resolution. In the event of an exact tie, the stock with the greater percentage increase at any point between the close on 9 June 2023 to the close on 29 September 2023 would be deemed the outperformer. In the event that a company splits its shares, the price of shares will be adjusted accordingly (<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stocksplit.asp" target="_blank">Investopedia - Stock Split</a>).</p><p></p><p><i>This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/ubs/" target="_blank">here</a> for more details.</i></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-09-29 | Between 9 June 2023 and 29 September 2023, will shares of Alphabet (Google) outperform shares of Microsoft? | 2023-06-09 | [["2023-06-09", 0.4], ["2023-06-09", 0.52], ["2023-06-09", 0.3467], ["2023-06-09", 0.2925], ["2023-06-09", 0.324], ["2023-06-10", 0.37], ["2023-06-10", 0.3886], ["2023-06-10", 0.4025], ["2023-06-10", 0.3933], ["2023-06-10", 0.454], ["2023-06-11", 0.457], ["2023-06-11", 0.4609], ["2023-06-12", 0.4725], ["2023-06-12", 0.4892], ["2023-06-12", 0.5291], ["2023-06-12", 0.547], ["2023-06-12", 0.4973], ["2023-06-12", 0.5509], ["2023-06-13", 0.501], ["2023-06-13", 0.486], ["2023-06-14", 0.43], ["2023-06-14", 0.4373], ["2023-06-14", 0.4017], ["2023-06-14", 0.4269], ["2023-06-14", 0.4125], ["2023-06-14", 0.4038], ["2023-06-14", 0.39], ["2023-06-14", 0.39], ["2023-06-15", 0.3893], ["2023-06-15", 0.3853], ["2023-06-15", 0.3831], ["2023-06-15", 0.3456], ["2023-06-15", 0.3353], ["2023-06-15", 0.3094], ["2023-06-15", 0.3335], ["2023-06-15", 0.3235], ["2023-06-16", 0.3182], ["2023-06-16", 0.3035], ["2023-06-16", 0.3089], ["2023-06-16", 0.2926], ["2023-06-17", 0.2831], ["2023-06-17", 0.2831], ["2023-06-17", 0.2794], ["2023-06-17", 0.2981], ["2023-06-18", 0.2988], ["2023-06-18", 0.2981], ["2023-06-18", 0.324], ["2023-06-18", 0.3462], ["2023-06-19", 0.3262], ["2023-06-19", 0.3215], ["2023-06-20", 0.3046], ["2023-06-20", 0.3223], ["2023-06-21", 0.3414], ["2023-06-21", 0.3286], ["2023-06-21", 0.3214], ["2023-06-21", 0.3486], ["2023-06-21", 0.35], ["2023-06-22", 0.3414], ["2023-06-22", 0.34], ["2023-06-23", 0.3357], ["2023-06-23", 0.3233], ["2023-06-23", 0.3013], ["2023-06-24", 0.2973], ["2023-06-24", 0.2927], ["2023-06-24", 0.3119], ["2023-06-25", 0.27], ["2023-06-25", 0.2681], ["2023-06-26", 0.2681], ["2023-06-26", 0.2669], ["2023-06-27", 0.3006], ["2023-06-27", 0.29], ["2023-06-27", 0.2838], ["2023-06-27", 0.2813], ["2023-06-28", 0.275], ["2023-06-28", 0.27], ["2023-06-28", 0.2681], ["2023-06-28", 0.2575], ["2023-06-28", 0.2541], ["2023-06-28", 0.26], ["2023-06-28", 0.2659], ["2023-06-29", 0.2671], ["2023-06-30", 0.2729], ["2023-07-01", 0.2965], ["2023-07-01", 0.2765], ["2023-07-01", 0.2724], ["2023-07-02", 0.2753], ["2023-07-02", 0.2718], ["2023-07-03", 0.2688], ["2023-07-03", 0.2682], ["2023-07-04", 0.2682], ["2023-07-04", 0.2617], ["2023-07-04", 0.2572], ["2023-07-04", 0.2489], ["2023-07-05", 0.2267], ["2023-07-05", 0.2611], ["2023-07-05", 0.2737], ["2023-07-06", 0.2579], ["2023-07-06", 0.2616], ["2023-07-06", 0.266], ["2023-07-06", 0.2835], ["2023-07-07", 0.2895], ["2023-07-07", 0.2875], ["2023-07-09", 0.2855], ["2023-07-10", 0.2865], ["2023-07-10", 0.286], ["2023-07-11", 0.286], ["2023-07-11", 0.284], ["2023-07-12", 0.2845], ["2023-07-12", 0.2835], ["2023-07-12", 0.284], ["2023-07-12", 0.2795], ["2023-07-13", 0.278], ["2023-07-13", 0.2671], ["2023-07-13", 0.291], ["2023-07-14", 0.2952], ["2023-07-14", 0.2995], ["2023-07-14", 0.3043], ["2023-07-15", 0.3119], ["2023-07-17", 0.3195], ["2023-07-17", 0.3243], ["2023-07-17", 0.3209], ["2023-07-18", 0.3195], ["2023-07-18", 0.3132], ["2023-07-18", 0.3036], ["2023-07-18", 0.2991], ["2023-07-18", 0.2827], ["2023-07-18", 0.2845], ["2023-07-19", 0.2768], ["2023-07-19", 0.2709], ["2023-07-19", 0.2473], ["2023-07-19", 0.237], ["2023-07-19", 0.2413], ["2023-07-20", 0.2383], ["2023-07-20", 0.2378], ["2023-07-21", 0.23], ["2023-07-21", 0.2308], ["2023-07-22", 0.2267], ["2023-07-22", 0.2225], ["2023-07-22", 0.2167], ["2023-07-24", 0.2171], ["2023-07-24", 0.2163], ["2023-07-24", 0.2121], ["2023-07-24", 0.2108], ["2023-07-25", 0.2071], ["2023-07-25", 0.2183], ["2023-07-25", 0.2121], ["2023-07-25", 0.2313], ["2023-07-26", 0.2458], ["2023-07-26", 0.2467], ["2023-07-26", 0.2467], ["2023-07-26", 0.2633], ["2023-07-26", 0.2767], ["2023-07-26", 0.285], ["2023-07-26", 0.2988], ["2023-07-26", 0.305], ["2023-07-26", 0.3154], ["2023-07-26", 0.3133], ["2023-07-26", 0.3113], ["2023-07-27", 0.3254], ["2023-07-27", 0.3463], ["2023-07-27", 0.33], ["2023-07-27", 0.3383], ["2023-07-27", 0.3467], ["2023-07-27", 0.3517], ["2023-07-28", 0.3725], ["2023-07-28", 0.3829], ["2023-07-28", 0.4008], ["2023-07-28", 0.4217], ["2023-07-29", 0.4279], ["2023-07-29", 0.4379], ["2023-07-29", 0.4438], ["2023-07-29", 0.4642], ["2023-07-29", 0.4667], ["2023-07-29", 0.4792], ["2023-07-30", 0.475], ["2023-07-31", 0.4767], ["2023-07-31", 0.4746], ["2023-07-31", 0.475], ["2023-07-31", 0.4792], ["2023-07-31", 0.475], ["2023-07-31", 0.4758], ["2023-08-01", 0.4925], ["2023-08-01", 0.5096], ["2023-08-01", 0.5138], ["2023-08-02", 0.5204], ["2023-08-02", 0.5413], ["2023-08-02", 0.5575], ["2023-08-03", 0.5617], ["2023-08-03", 0.5588], ["2023-08-03", 0.5738], ["2023-08-03", 0.575], ["2023-08-03", 0.5758], ["2023-08-04", 0.5779], ["2023-08-04", 0.5854], ["2023-08-04", 0.5938], ["2023-08-04", 0.5979], ["2023-08-04", 0.5996], ["2023-08-05", 0.6046], ["2023-08-07", 0.6071], ["2023-08-07", 0.6204], ["2023-08-07", 0.6296], ["2023-08-08", 0.6316], ["2023-08-08", 0.6384], ["2023-08-08", 0.6432], ["2023-08-08", 0.6444], ["2023-08-08", 0.6508], ["2023-08-08", 0.654], ["2023-08-08", 0.656], ["2023-08-09", 0.6572], ["2023-08-09", 0.6632], ["2023-08-09", 0.6636], ["2023-08-09", 0.6688], ["2023-08-09", 0.6728], ["2023-08-09", 0.6772], ["2023-08-09", 0.682], ["2023-08-10", 0.702], ["2023-08-10", 0.7044], ["2023-08-10", 0.7004], ["2023-08-10", 0.7024], ["2023-08-11", 0.7208], ["2023-08-11", 0.7228], ["2023-08-12", 0.7588], ["2023-08-12", 0.7644], ["2023-08-12", 0.7684], ["2023-08-12", 0.7784], ["2023-08-13", 0.7792], ["2023-08-13", 0.7872], ["2023-08-13", 0.7884], ["2023-08-14", 0.7884], ["2023-08-14", 0.7884], ["2023-08-14", 0.7932], ["2023-08-14", 0.7972], ["2023-08-14", 0.7968], ["2023-08-14", 0.8048], ["2023-08-15", 0.8088], ["2023-08-15", 0.812], ["2023-08-15", 0.816], ["2023-08-16", 0.8176], ["2023-08-16", 0.8184], ["2023-08-16", 0.8272], ["2023-08-16", 0.8264], ["2023-08-16", 0.8292], ["2023-08-16", 0.8404], ["2023-08-17", 0.8632], ["2023-08-17", 0.8792], ["2023-08-17", 0.8804], ["2023-08-18", 0.8796], ["2023-08-18", 0.885], ["2023-08-18", 0.8869], ["2023-08-18", 0.8888], ["2023-08-18", 0.8885], ["2023-08-19", 0.8946], ["2023-08-19", 0.8942], ["2023-08-19", 0.8942], ["2023-08-20", 0.8973], ["2023-08-21", 0.9035], ["2023-08-21", 0.9027], ["2023-08-21", 0.8954], ["2023-08-21", 0.8985], ["2023-08-22", 0.8973], ["2023-08-22", 0.8954], ["2023-08-22", 0.9031], ["2023-08-22", 0.9027], ["2023-08-23", 0.9088], ["2023-08-23", 0.9085], ["2023-08-24", 0.9092], ["2023-08-24", 0.9112], ["2023-08-24", 0.915], ["2023-08-24", 0.9181], ["2023-08-25", 0.9227], ["2023-08-25", 0.9235], ["2023-08-25", 0.9177], ["2023-08-25", 0.9235], ["2023-08-27", 0.925], ["2023-08-28", 0.9265], ["2023-08-28", 0.9254], ["2023-08-28", 0.9265], ["2023-08-29", 0.9285], ["2023-08-29", 0.9296], ["2023-08-29", 0.9323], ["2023-08-29", 0.9338], ["2023-08-30", 0.9346], ["2023-08-30", 0.9385], ["2023-08-30", 0.9385], ["2023-08-30", 0.9369], ["2023-08-30", 0.9369], ["2023-08-30", 0.9385], ["2023-08-31", 0.9388], ["2023-08-31", 0.94], ["2023-08-31", 0.9052], ["2023-08-31", 0.9048], ["2023-09-01", 0.9048], ["2023-09-01", 0.9044], ["2023-09-02", 0.9007], ["2023-09-02", 0.9004], ["2023-09-03", 0.9041], ["2023-09-04", 0.9004], ["2023-09-05", 0.9004], ["2023-09-05", 0.9011], ["2023-09-05", 0.9004], ["2023-09-05", 0.893], ["2023-09-05", 0.8963], ["2023-09-05", 0.8963], ["2023-09-06", 0.8941], ["2023-09-06", 0.8959], ["2023-09-06", 0.8963], ["2023-09-06", 0.8974], ["2023-09-06", 0.8952], ["2023-09-07", 0.8952], ["2023-09-07", 0.89], ["2023-09-08", 0.8571], ["2023-09-08", 0.8875], ["2023-09-08", 0.8871], ["2023-09-09", 0.8893], ["2023-09-09", 0.8932], ["2023-09-09", 0.8936], ["2023-09-10", 0.8936], ["2023-09-10", 0.8943], ["2023-09-11", 0.8946], ["2023-09-12", 0.8939], ["2023-09-12", 0.8954], ["2023-09-12", 0.8971], ["2023-09-12", 0.8975], ["2023-09-12", 0.8979], ["2023-09-13", 0.8986], ["2023-09-13", 0.8982], ["2023-09-14", 0.8911], ["2023-09-14", 0.8932], ["2023-09-14", 0.8936], ["2023-09-14", 0.8946], ["2023-09-15", 0.8954], ["2023-09-15", 0.8971], ["2023-09-15", 0.8993], ["2023-09-16", 0.9004], ["2023-09-16", 0.8693], ["2023-09-16", 0.8693], ["2023-09-17", 0.871], ["2023-09-17", 0.8717], ["2023-09-17", 0.8703], ["2023-09-18", 0.871], ["2023-09-18", 0.8637], ["2023-09-18", 0.8573], ["2023-09-19", 0.88], ["2023-09-19", 0.88], ["2023-09-19", 0.8797], ["2023-09-19", 0.8793], ["2023-09-19", 0.8797], ["2023-09-19", 0.881], ["2023-09-20", 0.8823], ["2023-09-20", 0.8823], ["2023-09-20", 0.8845], ["2023-09-21", 0.8852], ["2023-09-21", 0.8848], ["2023-09-21", 0.8913], ["2023-09-21", 0.8913], ["2023-09-21", 0.8919], ["2023-09-21", 0.8945], ["2023-09-21", 0.9026], ["2023-09-22", 0.9026], ["2023-09-22", 0.9106], ["2023-09-23", 0.9106], ["2023-09-23", 0.9116], ["2023-09-23", 0.9119], ["2023-09-24", 0.9145], ["2023-09-25", 0.9145], ["2023-09-25", 0.9145], ["2023-09-26", 0.9148], ["2023-09-26", 0.9148], ["2023-09-26", 0.9152], ["2023-09-26", 0.91], ["2023-09-27", 0.9131], ["2023-09-27", 0.9069], ["2023-09-27", 0.9116], ["2023-09-28", 0.8803], ["2023-09-28", 0.8803], ["2023-09-28", 0.8809], ["2023-09-28", 0.8845], ["2023-09-28", 0.8906], ["2023-09-28", 0.8906], ["2023-09-28", 0.8912], ["2023-09-29", 0.8915], ["2023-09-29", 0.8915]] | ["https://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share", "https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/26/alphabet-stock-up-after-better-than-expected-earnings.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-30/us-inflation-cools-spending-stagnates-as-economy-loses-steam", "https://www.newsday.com/business/google-rebounds-from-unprecedented-drop-in-ad-drop-with-a-resurgence-that-pushes-tock-higher-kb9deud5", "https://www.aol.com/finance/microsoft-earnings-preview-focus-cloud-134041612.html", "https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1672231319005282305?s=20", "https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/26/microsoft-stock-falls-as-analysts-digest-a-delayed-ai-ramp.html", "https://www.androidpolice.com/alphabet-new-antitrust-lawsuit-google-ads/", "https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2023/03/16/introducing-microsoft-365-copilot-your-copilot-for-work", "https://portfolioslab.com/tools/stock-comparison/MSFT/GOOG", "https://www.investing.com/analysis/microsoft-vs-alphabet-postearnings-showdown-cloud-ai-to-shape-h2-performance-200640378", "https://www.investing.com/academy/statistics/google-facts/#conclusion", "https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/26/tech/google-antitrust/index.html", "https://seekingalpha.com/news/3989688-microsofts-generative-ai-push-revenue-tidal-wave-tech-giant", "https://www.iab.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/IAB_PwC_Internet_Advertising_Revenue_Report_2022.pdf", "https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/", "https://www.hartfordfunds.com/insights/market-perspectives/equity/the-power-of-dividends.html", "https://www.businessinsider.com/layoffs-sweeping-the-us-these-are-the-companies-making-cuts-2023?r=US&IR=T#dropbox-16-of-staff-12", "https://gs.statcounter.com/browser-market-share", "https://www.reuters.com/technology/alphabet-shares-soar-after-it-expands-ai-chatbot-internationally-2023-07-13/", "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/GOOGL:NASDAQ?comparison=NASDAQ%3AMSFT&window=YTD", "https://www.statista.com/statistics/216573/worldwide-market-share-of-search-engines/", "https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-sues-google-monopolizing-digital-advertising-technologies", "https://www.swingtradesystems.com/trading-days-calendars.html", "https://www.investing.com/academy/statistics/microsoft-facts/#conclusion"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2020-04-27 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1409 |
<p>Various plaintiffs sued NYC in federal court over the limits it placed on transporting licensed firearms in the city, where NYC prevailed (<a href="http://www.nyc.gov/html/law/downloads/pdf/gun_group_2015.pdf" target="_blank">NYC.gov</a>, <a href="https://www.leagle.com/decision/infdco20150206e09" target="_blank">Leagle</a>). While the Second Circuit affirmed the lower court, NYC, fearing a loss before the Supreme Court after it agreed to hear an appeal, eased the relevant limits in the hopes of rendering the appeal moot (<a href="https://casetext.com/case/nys-rifle-pistol-assn-inc-v-city-of-ny" target="_blank">Casetext</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/27/us/politics/supreme-court-gun-control.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/courts_law/new-york-eased-gun-law-hopeful-supreme-court-would-drop-second-amendment-case--but-that-hasnt-happened-yet/2019/08/10/9031682e-bab6-11e9-a091-6a96e67d9cce_story.html" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>). The Court declined to dismiss the case due to mootness, though the issue is set to be considered along with the merits at oral arguments (<a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2019/18-280" target="_blank">Oyez</a>, <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/new-york-state-rifle-pistol-association-inc-v-city-of-new-york-new-york/" target="_blank">SCOTUSblog</a>). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2019 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."<br></p><p style="margin-bottom:10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>
| 2020-04-27 | In New York State Rifle & Pistol Association Inc. v. City of New York, NY (NYC), will the Supreme Court rule that NYC’s previous ban on transporting a licensed, locked, and unloaded handgun to a home or shooting range outside city limits is unconstitutional? | 2019-11-29 | [["2019-11-29", 0.55], ["2019-11-29", 0.65], ["2019-11-29", 0.825], ["2019-11-29", 0.98], ["2019-11-29", 0.815], ["2019-11-30", 0.605], ["2019-11-30", 0.61], ["2019-12-01", 0.66], ["2019-12-01", 0.61], ["2019-12-01", 0.38], ["2019-12-01", 0.55], ["2019-12-01", 0.55], ["2019-12-02", 0.4], ["2019-12-02", 0.55], ["2019-12-02", 0.55], ["2019-12-02", 0.61], ["2019-12-02", 0.55], ["2019-12-02", 0.55], ["2019-12-03", 0.5], ["2019-12-03", 0.5], ["2019-12-04", 0.425], ["2019-12-04", 0.3], ["2019-12-04", 0.3], ["2019-12-07", 0.275], ["2019-12-07", 0.3], ["2019-12-07", 0.21], ["2019-12-07", 0.21], ["2019-12-07", 0.11], ["2019-12-07", 0.11], ["2019-12-07", 0.185], ["2019-12-07", 0.275], ["2019-12-08", 0.375], ["2019-12-08", 0.595], ["2019-12-08", 0.595], ["2019-12-08", 0.375], ["2019-12-08", 0.375], ["2019-12-08", 0.375], ["2019-12-08", 0.595], ["2019-12-08", 0.55], ["2019-12-08", 0.55], ["2019-12-08", 0.55], ["2019-12-09", 0.525], ["2019-12-09", 0.525], ["2019-12-10", 0.6], ["2019-12-10", 0.6], ["2019-12-10", 0.55], ["2019-12-10", 0.55], ["2019-12-11", 0.15], ["2019-12-11", 0.15], ["2019-12-11", 0.12], ["2019-12-12", 0.12], ["2019-12-12", 0.12], ["2019-12-12", 0.12], ["2019-12-13", 0.12], ["2019-12-13", 0.335], ["2019-12-13", 0.335], ["2019-12-14", 0.335], ["2019-12-14", 0.55], ["2019-12-16", 0.55], ["2019-12-17", 0.65], ["2019-12-17", 0.6], ["2019-12-18", 0.6], ["2019-12-18", 0.6], ["2019-12-18", 0.6], ["2019-12-20", 0.6], ["2019-12-20", 0.375], ["2019-12-21", 0.6], ["2019-12-23", 0.6], ["2019-12-24", 0.6], ["2019-12-26", 0.6], ["2019-12-28", 0.55], ["2019-12-28", 0.55], ["2019-12-28", 0.55], ["2019-12-28", 0.55], ["2019-12-29", 0.6], ["2019-12-29", 0.425], ["2019-12-29", 0.6], ["2019-12-29", 0.6], ["2019-12-30", 0.6], ["2019-12-31", 0.6], ["2020-01-01", 0.6], ["2020-01-01", 0.65], ["2020-01-01", 0.7], ["2020-01-02", 0.7], ["2020-01-03", 0.725], ["2020-01-04", 0.725], ["2020-01-05", 0.765], ["2020-01-06", 0.75], ["2020-01-09", 0.765], ["2020-01-09", 0.765], ["2020-01-10", 0.765], ["2020-01-10", 0.75], ["2020-01-10", 0.75], ["2020-01-11", 0.75], ["2020-01-11", 0.75], ["2020-01-12", 0.75], ["2020-01-13", 0.75], ["2020-01-13", 0.75], ["2020-01-14", 0.75], ["2020-01-15", 0.75], ["2020-01-18", 0.75], ["2020-01-19", 0.75], ["2020-01-19", 0.75], ["2020-01-19", 0.75], ["2020-01-19", 0.75], ["2020-01-19", 0.75], ["2020-01-19", 0.765], ["2020-01-19", 0.78], ["2020-01-19", 0.8], ["2020-01-19", 0.79], ["2020-01-19", 0.765], ["2020-01-19", 0.765], ["2020-01-19", 0.75], ["2020-01-19", 0.78], ["2020-01-19", 0.765], ["2020-01-19", 0.765], ["2020-01-19", 0.75], ["2020-01-19", 0.75], ["2020-01-19", 0.75], ["2020-01-19", 0.75], ["2020-01-19", 0.75], ["2020-01-19", 0.75], ["2020-01-19", 0.75], ["2020-01-19", 0.75], ["2020-01-19", 0.75], ["2020-01-19", 0.75], ["2020-01-19", 0.75], ["2020-01-19", 0.75], ["2020-01-19", 0.75], ["2020-01-19", 0.75], ["2020-01-19", 0.75], ["2020-01-19", 0.75], ["2020-01-19", 0.75], ["2020-01-19", 0.75], ["2020-01-19", 0.75], ["2020-01-19", 0.75], ["2020-01-19", 0.75], ["2020-01-19", 0.75], ["2020-01-19", 0.75], ["2020-01-19", 0.75], ["2020-01-19", 0.75], ["2020-01-19", 0.75], ["2020-01-20", 0.75], ["2020-01-20", 0.75], ["2020-01-20", 0.75], ["2020-01-20", 0.75], ["2020-01-20", 0.7], ["2020-01-20", 0.7], ["2020-01-20", 0.7], ["2020-01-20", 0.725], ["2020-01-21", 0.75], ["2020-01-21", 0.75], ["2020-01-21", 0.725], ["2020-01-22", 0.7], ["2020-01-22", 0.7], ["2020-01-22", 0.7], ["2020-01-22", 0.7], ["2020-01-22", 0.7], ["2020-01-22", 0.7], ["2020-01-22", 0.7], ["2020-01-23", 0.7], ["2020-01-23", 0.7], ["2020-01-23", 0.7], ["2020-01-24", 0.7], ["2020-01-25", 0.7], ["2020-01-26", 0.7], ["2020-01-26", 0.7], ["2020-01-26", 0.7], ["2020-01-27", 0.7], ["2020-01-27", 0.7], ["2020-01-28", 0.7], ["2020-01-29", 0.7], ["2020-01-29", 0.7], ["2020-01-29", 0.7], ["2020-01-30", 0.7], ["2020-02-02", 0.7], ["2020-02-04", 0.7], ["2020-02-07", 0.7], ["2020-02-07", 0.67], ["2020-02-07", 0.67], ["2020-02-08", 0.67], ["2020-02-08", 0.67], ["2020-02-09", 0.67], ["2020-02-10", 0.67], ["2020-02-12", 0.67], ["2020-02-13", 0.67], ["2020-02-13", 0.67], ["2020-02-14", 0.67], ["2020-02-15", 0.67], ["2020-02-15", 0.67], ["2020-02-15", 0.685], ["2020-02-16", 0.685], ["2020-02-16", 0.66], ["2020-02-17", 0.66], ["2020-02-18", 0.66], ["2020-02-19", 0.67], ["2020-02-20", 0.67], ["2020-02-22", 0.67], ["2020-02-24", 0.67], ["2020-02-24", 0.7], ["2020-02-24", 0.7], ["2020-02-25", 0.7], ["2020-02-25", 0.7], ["2020-02-26", 0.7], ["2020-02-27", 0.7], ["2020-02-27", 0.7], ["2020-02-28", 0.7], ["2020-02-28", 0.7], ["2020-02-29", 0.7], ["2020-02-29", 0.7], ["2020-03-01", 0.7], ["2020-03-02", 0.7], ["2020-03-03", 0.7], ["2020-03-03", 0.7], ["2020-03-04", 0.7], ["2020-03-04", 0.7], ["2020-03-05", 0.7], ["2020-03-05", 0.7], ["2020-03-06", 0.7], ["2020-03-07", 0.7], ["2020-03-07", 0.7], ["2020-03-10", 0.7], ["2020-03-11", 0.7], ["2020-03-12", 0.7], ["2020-03-14", 0.7], ["2020-03-16", 0.685], ["2020-03-16", 0.685], ["2020-03-18", 0.7], ["2020-03-20", 0.7], ["2020-03-22", 0.7], ["2020-03-24", 0.7], ["2020-03-24", 0.7], ["2020-03-26", 0.7], ["2020-03-28", 0.7], ["2020-03-28", 0.7], ["2020-03-29", 0.7], ["2020-03-31", 0.7], ["2020-04-02", 0.7], ["2020-04-03", 0.7], ["2020-04-04", 0.7], ["2020-04-04", 0.7], ["2020-04-05", 0.7], ["2020-04-06", 0.7], ["2020-04-07", 0.7], ["2020-04-08", 0.7], ["2020-04-09", 0.7], ["2020-04-09", 0.7], ["2020-04-12", 0.7], ["2020-04-13", 0.7], ["2020-04-14", 0.7], ["2020-04-15", 0.7], ["2020-04-17", 0.7], ["2020-04-27", 0.7], ["2020-04-27", 0.7]] | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-05-11 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2555 |
<p>In 2018, California voters approved Prop 12, which set various standards for the sale of certain animal products in the state (<a href="https://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_12,_Farm_Animal_Confinement_Initiative_(2018)" target="_blank">Ballotpedia</a>). The National Pork Producers Council and American Farm Bureau Federation (Council) sued in federal court, claiming Prop 12 violated the dormant Commerce Clause of the constitution (<a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2022/21-468" target="_blank">Oyez</a>, <a href="https://saylordotorg.github.io/text_law-for-entrepreneurs/s07-03-dormant-commerce-clause.html" target="_blank">Saylor Academy</a>). After losing in both the district court and Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, the Council appealed to the Supreme Court (<a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-pork-producers-council-v-ross/" target="_blank">SCOTUSblog</a>). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2022 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-05-11 | In National Pork Producers Council v. Ross, will the Supreme Court rule any part of California’s Farm Animal Confinement Initiative (Prop 12) unconstitutional? | 2022-09-22 | [["2022-09-23", 1.0], ["2022-09-23", 0.5], ["2022-09-23", 1.0], ["2022-09-24", 0.8533], ["2022-09-24", 0.8825], ["2022-09-24", 0.856], ["2022-09-25", 0.88], ["2022-09-25", 0.84], ["2022-09-25", 0.8414], ["2022-09-25", 0.8013], ["2022-09-26", 0.8011], ["2022-09-26", 0.821], ["2022-09-27", 0.821], ["2022-09-28", 0.821], ["2022-09-28", 0.774], ["2022-09-28", 0.749], ["2022-09-28", 0.741], ["2022-09-28", 0.732], ["2022-09-28", 0.757], ["2022-09-28", 0.752], ["2022-09-29", 0.672], ["2022-09-29", 0.702], ["2022-09-30", 0.65], ["2022-09-30", 0.58], ["2022-09-30", 0.565], ["2022-09-30", 0.565], ["2022-10-02", 0.56], ["2022-10-02", 0.46], ["2022-10-03", 0.456], ["2022-10-04", 0.455], ["2022-10-04", 0.445], ["2022-10-05", 0.444], ["2022-10-07", 0.459], ["2022-10-08", 0.469], ["2022-10-10", 0.468], ["2022-10-12", 0.467], ["2022-10-12", 0.462], ["2022-10-13", 0.462], ["2022-10-13", 0.461], ["2022-10-13", 0.426], ["2022-10-13", 0.424], ["2022-10-14", 0.424], ["2022-10-14", 0.429], ["2022-10-14", 0.428], ["2022-10-14", 0.475], ["2022-10-14", 0.48], ["2022-10-14", 0.533], ["2022-10-17", 0.533], ["2022-10-19", 0.535], ["2022-10-21", 0.57], ["2022-10-21", 0.569], ["2022-10-22", 0.568], ["2022-10-22", 0.576], ["2022-10-22", 0.58], ["2022-10-23", 0.645], ["2022-10-24", 0.646], ["2022-10-24", 0.635], ["2022-10-24", 0.624], ["2022-10-29", 0.643], ["2022-10-31", 0.643], ["2022-11-02", 0.652], ["2022-11-03", 0.648], ["2022-11-04", 0.64], ["2022-11-04", 0.635], ["2022-11-05", 0.626], ["2022-11-13", 0.626], ["2022-11-13", 0.618], ["2022-11-14", 0.618], ["2022-11-20", 0.618], ["2022-11-22", 0.568], ["2022-11-23", 0.568], ["2022-11-24", 0.564], ["2022-11-25", 0.562], ["2022-11-29", 0.55], ["2022-12-05", 0.57], ["2022-12-08", 0.567], ["2022-12-12", 0.566], ["2022-12-14", 0.5145], ["2022-12-17", 0.5073], ["2022-12-23", 0.5064], ["2022-12-28", 0.4964], ["2022-12-30", 0.4936], ["2023-01-02", 0.49], ["2023-01-04", 0.4891], ["2023-01-05", 0.4845], ["2023-01-11", 0.4827], ["2023-01-11", 0.4818], ["2023-01-12", 0.4791], ["2023-01-16", 0.4782], ["2023-01-20", 0.4773], ["2023-01-24", 0.4818], ["2023-01-25", 0.4855], ["2023-01-28", 0.4845], ["2023-02-02", 0.4818], ["2023-02-05", 0.4782], ["2023-02-06", 0.4773], ["2023-02-11", 0.4773], ["2023-02-12", 0.4809], ["2023-02-13", 0.39], ["2023-02-13", 0.3791], ["2023-02-16", 0.3782], ["2023-02-16", 0.3691], ["2023-02-28", 0.4191], ["2023-03-02", 0.4218], ["2023-03-08", 0.4218], ["2023-03-21", 0.4218], ["2023-03-27", 0.4218], ["2023-04-02", 0.4173], ["2023-04-10", 0.4109], ["2023-04-14", 0.3609], ["2023-04-15", 0.3564], ["2023-04-17", 0.3345], ["2023-04-18", 0.3355], ["2023-05-03", 0.3273], ["2023-05-05", 0.3264], ["2023-05-11", 0.3264]] | ["https://us.cnn.com/2023/04/25/politics/gorsuch-property-sale-lawyer-ethics/index.html", "https://www.oyez.org/cases/2022/21-468", "https://ballotpedia.org/SCOTUS_case_reversal_rates_(2007_-_Present)#2021", "https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/oct/03/supreme-court-proposition-12-pig-gestation-crates-california-animal-welfare-law", "https://fantasyscotus.net/", "https://thecounter.org/california-proposition-12-animal-welfare-supreme-court/", "https://www.oyez.org/cases/2022", "https://nationalaglawcenter.org/what-is-going-on-with-prop-12/", "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/national-pork-producers-council-v-ross/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-12-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1927 |
<p>Tensions continue to flare along the disputed border between India and China, with lethal clashes in June 2020 (<a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-06-16/dozens-killed-as-india-china-face-off-in-first-deadly-clash-in-decades" target="_blank">US News</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55793112" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://time.com/5843279/india-china-border/" target="_blank">Time</a>). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-12-01 | Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 December 2021? | 2021-02-05 | [["2021-02-05", 0.25], ["2021-02-05", 0.175], ["2021-02-05", 0.15], ["2021-02-05", 0.15], ["2021-02-06", 0.15], ["2021-02-06", 0.15], ["2021-02-06", 0.15], ["2021-02-06", 0.15], ["2021-02-06", 0.15], ["2021-02-06", 0.15], ["2021-02-06", 0.15], ["2021-02-06", 0.14], ["2021-02-07", 0.14], ["2021-02-07", 0.15], ["2021-02-07", 0.14], ["2021-02-07", 0.15], ["2021-02-07", 0.14], ["2021-02-07", 0.15], ["2021-02-07", 0.15], ["2021-02-08", 0.15], ["2021-02-08", 0.15], ["2021-02-08", 0.15], ["2021-02-08", 0.15], ["2021-02-09", 0.18], ["2021-02-10", 0.2], ["2021-02-10", 0.2], ["2021-02-10", 0.21], ["2021-02-10", 0.245], ["2021-02-11", 0.245], ["2021-02-11", 0.245], ["2021-02-12", 0.22], ["2021-02-13", 0.22], ["2021-02-13", 0.22], ["2021-02-14", 0.22], ["2021-02-15", 0.22], ["2021-02-17", 0.22], ["2021-02-17", 0.22], ["2021-02-19", 0.2], ["2021-02-21", 0.21], ["2021-02-23", 0.2], ["2021-02-24", 0.195], ["2021-02-25", 0.195], ["2021-02-28", 0.165], ["2021-03-01", 0.15], ["2021-03-03", 0.15], ["2021-03-05", 0.15], ["2021-03-07", 0.09], ["2021-03-08", 0.09], ["2021-03-09", 0.1], ["2021-03-09", 0.095], ["2021-03-10", 0.125], ["2021-03-14", 0.12], ["2021-03-15", 0.15], ["2021-03-15", 0.15], ["2021-03-16", 0.15], ["2021-03-17", 0.15], ["2021-03-21", 0.15], ["2021-03-24", 0.15], ["2021-03-29", 0.15], ["2021-03-31", 0.15], ["2021-03-31", 0.15], ["2021-03-31", 0.15], ["2021-04-01", 0.15], ["2021-04-03", 0.12], ["2021-04-05", 0.11], ["2021-04-06", 0.11], ["2021-04-06", 0.115], ["2021-04-07", 0.115], ["2021-04-09", 0.115], ["2021-04-09", 0.115], ["2021-04-12", 0.105], ["2021-04-15", 0.105], ["2021-04-18", 0.095], ["2021-04-19", 0.095], ["2021-04-20", 0.105], ["2021-04-22", 0.1], ["2021-04-25", 0.07], ["2021-04-27", 0.07], ["2021-04-28", 0.07], ["2021-04-30", 0.065], ["2021-04-30", 0.065], ["2021-05-03", 0.065], ["2021-05-04", 0.065], ["2021-05-07", 0.07], ["2021-05-07", 0.065], ["2021-05-09", 0.065], ["2021-05-10", 0.06], ["2021-05-10", 0.06], ["2021-05-13", 0.065], ["2021-05-15", 0.06], ["2021-05-16", 0.06], ["2021-05-17", 0.06], ["2021-05-17", 0.06], ["2021-05-18", 0.06], ["2021-05-18", 0.06], ["2021-05-21", 0.06], ["2021-05-22", 0.06], ["2021-05-23", 0.06], ["2021-05-25", 0.055], ["2021-05-27", 0.05], ["2021-05-27", 0.05], ["2021-05-30", 0.05], ["2021-06-01", 0.05], ["2021-06-04", 0.05], ["2021-06-08", 0.05], ["2021-06-09", 0.05], ["2021-06-09", 0.045], ["2021-06-10", 0.04], ["2021-06-10", 0.04], ["2021-06-10", 0.04], ["2021-06-10", 0.04], ["2021-06-10", 0.04], ["2021-06-10", 0.04], ["2021-06-10", 0.04], ["2021-06-10", 0.04], ["2021-06-10", 0.04], ["2021-06-14", 0.04], ["2021-06-17", 0.04], ["2021-06-20", 0.04], ["2021-06-24", 0.04], ["2021-06-25", 0.04], ["2021-06-26", 0.04], ["2021-06-29", 0.04], ["2021-06-30", 0.04], ["2021-07-01", 0.04], ["2021-07-02", 0.04], ["2021-07-02", 0.04], ["2021-07-02", 0.04], ["2021-07-06", 0.04], ["2021-07-07", 0.035], ["2021-07-08", 0.035], ["2021-07-09", 0.04], ["2021-07-13", 0.04], ["2021-07-13", 0.04], ["2021-07-15", 0.04], ["2021-07-16", 0.04], ["2021-07-17", 0.04], ["2021-07-19", 0.04], ["2021-07-19", 0.04], ["2021-07-19", 0.04], ["2021-07-19", 0.04], ["2021-07-22", 0.04], ["2021-07-23", 0.04], ["2021-07-24", 0.04], ["2021-07-27", 0.04], ["2021-07-29", 0.04], ["2021-07-31", 0.04], ["2021-07-31", 0.04], ["2021-08-01", 0.045], ["2021-08-02", 0.045], ["2021-08-03", 0.05], ["2021-08-04", 0.05], ["2021-08-04", 0.05], ["2021-08-04", 0.05], ["2021-08-06", 0.05], ["2021-08-08", 0.05], ["2021-08-09", 0.035], ["2021-08-10", 0.035], ["2021-08-11", 0.035], ["2021-08-11", 0.035], ["2021-08-14", 0.035], ["2021-08-16", 0.035], ["2021-08-18", 0.035], ["2021-08-19", 0.035], ["2021-08-23", 0.035], ["2021-08-23", 0.03], ["2021-08-24", 0.03], ["2021-08-25", 0.03], ["2021-08-26", 0.03], ["2021-08-27", 0.03], ["2021-08-27", 0.03], ["2021-08-28", 0.03], ["2021-08-31", 0.03], ["2021-09-02", 0.03], ["2021-09-03", 0.03], ["2021-09-05", 0.03], ["2021-09-05", 0.03], ["2021-09-05", 0.03], ["2021-09-08", 0.03], ["2021-09-08", 0.03], ["2021-09-09", 0.03], ["2021-09-09", 0.03], ["2021-09-10", 0.03], ["2021-09-10", 0.03], ["2021-09-11", 0.03], ["2021-09-11", 0.03], ["2021-09-11", 0.035], ["2021-09-12", 0.04], ["2021-09-12", 0.04], ["2021-09-12", 0.05], ["2021-09-12", 0.05], ["2021-09-12", 0.05], ["2021-09-12", 0.05], ["2021-09-13", 0.05], ["2021-09-13", 0.05], ["2021-09-13", 0.055], ["2021-09-14", 0.07], ["2021-09-14", 0.06], ["2021-09-15", 0.06], ["2021-09-16", 0.06], ["2021-09-16", 0.06], ["2021-09-17", 0.06], ["2021-09-18", 0.06], ["2021-09-19", 0.065], ["2021-09-21", 0.06], ["2021-09-21", 0.06], ["2021-09-21", 0.075], ["2021-09-21", 0.07], ["2021-09-22", 0.06], ["2021-09-22", 0.06], ["2021-09-24", 0.05], ["2021-09-25", 0.05], ["2021-09-26", 0.05], ["2021-09-27", 0.05], ["2021-09-27", 0.06], ["2021-09-28", 0.06], ["2021-09-28", 0.06], ["2021-09-28", 0.06], ["2021-09-28", 0.055], ["2021-09-29", 0.05], ["2021-09-30", 0.05], ["2021-09-30", 0.05], ["2021-09-30", 0.05], ["2021-10-01", 0.05], ["2021-10-02", 0.05], ["2021-10-03", 0.05], ["2021-10-04", 0.05], ["2021-10-06", 0.05], ["2021-10-06", 0.05], ["2021-10-07", 0.05], ["2021-10-07", 0.05], ["2021-10-07", 0.05], ["2021-10-08", 0.05], ["2021-10-10", 0.05], ["2021-10-10", 0.05], ["2021-10-11", 0.05], ["2021-10-11", 0.05], ["2021-10-13", 0.05], ["2021-10-14", 0.05], ["2021-10-14", 0.05], ["2021-10-18", 0.05], ["2021-10-19", 0.05], ["2021-10-20", 0.05], ["2021-10-22", 0.05], ["2021-10-24", 0.05], ["2021-10-26", 0.05], ["2021-10-26", 0.05], ["2021-10-28", 0.05], ["2021-10-28", 0.05], ["2021-10-30", 0.05], ["2021-11-01", 0.05], ["2021-11-02", 0.05], ["2021-11-02", 0.05], ["2021-11-04", 0.05], ["2021-11-04", 0.05], ["2021-11-04", 0.045], ["2021-11-04", 0.04], ["2021-11-05", 0.035], ["2021-11-06", 0.03], ["2021-11-07", 0.03], ["2021-11-09", 0.03], ["2021-11-09", 0.03], ["2021-11-09", 0.03], ["2021-11-11", 0.03], ["2021-11-12", 0.03], ["2021-11-13", 0.03], ["2021-11-14", 0.03], ["2021-11-14", 0.03], ["2021-11-16", 0.03], ["2021-11-17", 0.03], ["2021-11-17", 0.03], ["2021-11-17", 0.03], ["2021-11-17", 0.02], ["2021-11-17", 0.02], ["2021-11-18", 0.02], ["2021-11-18", 0.02], ["2021-11-18", 0.02], ["2021-11-19", 0.02], ["2021-11-20", 0.02], ["2021-11-21", 0.02], ["2021-11-21", 0.02], ["2021-11-22", 0.02], ["2021-11-22", 0.02], ["2021-11-23", 0.02], ["2021-11-24", 0.01], ["2021-11-24", 0.01], ["2021-11-24", 0.01], ["2021-11-24", 0.01], ["2021-11-24", 0.01], ["2021-11-24", 0.01], ["2021-11-25", 0.005], ["2021-11-26", 0.0], ["2021-11-26", 0.0], ["2021-11-28", 0.0], ["2021-11-28", 0.0], ["2021-11-29", 0.0], ["2021-11-29", 0.0], ["2021-11-29", 0.0], ["2021-11-29", 0.0], ["2021-11-30", 0.0], ["2021-11-30", 0.0], ["2021-11-30", 0.0], ["2021-11-30", 0.0], ["2021-11-30", 0.0], ["2021-12-01", 0.0], ["2021-12-01", 0.0]] | ["https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-india-move-tens-of-thousands-of-troops-to-the-border-in-largest-buildup-in-decades-11625218201", "https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210806-india-china-pull-back-from-part-of-contested-himalayan-border", "https://www.meteoblue.com/en/weather/14-days/naku-la_india_1262090", "https://apnews.com/article/india-china-army-85d72bb98bbebfb9cefe9fea329840cc?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EBB%2010.11.21&utm_term=Editorial%20-%20Early%20Bird%20Brief", "https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/a-3d-deep-dive-into-the-india-china-border-dispute/", "https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/next-india-china-meeting-on-border-issue-likely-this-week/articleshow/87727502.cms", "https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/41065/tracking-chinas-sudden-airpower-expansion-along-its-western-border", "https://www.economist.com/asia/2021/11/11/how-the-game-of-go-explains-chinas-aggression-towards-india", "https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/not-aware-china-on-reports-of-its-soldiers-detention-in-arunachal-pradesh-101633691888935-amp.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/18/tensions-remain-high-as-hopes-dashed-for-breakthrough-in-china-and-india-stalemate", "https://www.telegraphindia.com/india/india-and-china-have-accelerated-several-infrastructure-projects-along-the-line-of-actual-control/cid/1828531", "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/topic/India-China-Tensions-", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53062484", "https://www.meteoblue.com/en/weather/historyclimate/climatemodelled/naku-la_india_1262090", "https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/india-china-agree-to-work-towards-speedy-resolution-of-lac-row-101631901927179.html", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/india-china-strike-out-in-talks-to-ease-border-dispute-11633962853", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93India_relations", "https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/letters/article/2001420498/china-fumes-over-fresh-us-philippines-military-pact", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l7c5f0oPTLI", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oWFIvqn-ZXo", "https://www.voanews.com/a/india-says-it-will-not-accept-illegal-occupation-after-us-report-of-china-village-at-border-/6310461.html", "https://thediplomat.com/2021/08/decoding-the-latest-china-india-military-talks-on-the-border/", "https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3148674/xi-rallies-model-pla-unit-india-china-border-praises-great-job", "https://www.cfr.org/report/preparing-heightened-tensions-between-china-and-india", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_China%E2%80%93India_skirmishes"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-04-23 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2672 |
<p>On 10 December 2022, Kosovo President Vjosa Osmani announced that local elections in northern Serb-majority areas would be postponed to 23 April 2023, due to violence and tensions in the area (<a href="https://www.dw.com/en/kosovo-delays-local-election-in-serbian-majority-areas/a-64057828" target="_blank">Deutsche Welle</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/serbian/lat/balkan-63630592" target="_blank">BBC</a> [in Serbian]. Elections held in any of the following municipalities would count: Northern Mitrovica (Severna Mitrovica), Zubin Potok, Zvecan, and/or Leposavic. The local elections must be recognized by the government in Pristina to count. The question would close early upon the official announcement that the elections have been canceled or postponed to a date after 30 April 2023.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-04-24 | Will postponed local elections be held in North Kosovo before 1 May 2023? | 2022-12-16 | [["2022-12-16", 0.0], ["2022-12-16", 0.26], ["2022-12-16", 0.25], ["2022-12-16", 0.3667], ["2022-12-16", 0.525], ["2022-12-16", 0.5225], ["2022-12-16", 0.614], ["2022-12-16", 0.612], ["2022-12-17", 0.6767], ["2022-12-17", 0.71], ["2022-12-17", 0.6588], ["2022-12-17", 0.6575], ["2022-12-17", 0.6533], ["2022-12-18", 0.623], ["2022-12-18", 0.6118], ["2022-12-19", 0.6442], ["2022-12-19", 0.6138], ["2022-12-19", 0.6477], ["2022-12-19", 0.6014], ["2022-12-19", 0.5967], ["2022-12-19", 0.6063], ["2022-12-21", 0.533], ["2022-12-21", 0.534], ["2022-12-21", 0.584], ["2022-12-21", 0.607], ["2022-12-21", 0.591], ["2022-12-22", 0.616], ["2022-12-22", 0.617], ["2022-12-22", 0.616], ["2022-12-22", 0.631], ["2022-12-23", 0.631], ["2022-12-25", 0.63], ["2022-12-25", 0.62], ["2022-12-26", 0.605], ["2022-12-26", 0.535], ["2022-12-27", 0.536], ["2022-12-27", 0.534], ["2022-12-27", 0.524], ["2022-12-28", 0.486], ["2022-12-29", 0.479], ["2022-12-29", 0.487], ["2022-12-29", 0.486], ["2022-12-30", 0.419], ["2022-12-30", 0.409], ["2022-12-30", 0.41], ["2022-12-30", 0.436], ["2022-12-30", 0.496], ["2022-12-31", 0.514], ["2023-01-01", 0.489], ["2023-01-02", 0.49], ["2023-01-02", 0.495], ["2023-01-03", 0.493], ["2023-01-03", 0.493], ["2023-01-04", 0.516], ["2023-01-04", 0.517], ["2023-01-06", 0.507], ["2023-01-06", 0.52], ["2023-01-06", 0.5209], ["2023-01-07", 0.5255], ["2023-01-08", 0.5245], ["2023-01-10", 0.5236], ["2023-01-11", 0.5209], ["2023-01-13", 0.52], ["2023-01-16", 0.5191], ["2023-01-17", 0.5918], ["2023-01-19", 0.6045], ["2023-01-20", 0.6036], ["2023-01-22", 0.6158], ["2023-01-24", 0.6217], ["2023-01-25", 0.615], ["2023-01-25", 0.6308], ["2023-01-26", 0.6767], ["2023-01-26", 0.685], ["2023-01-28", 0.6842], ["2023-02-04", 0.6842], ["2023-02-07", 0.68], ["2023-02-10", 0.685], ["2023-02-11", 0.6892], ["2023-02-12", 0.6908], ["2023-02-12", 0.6933], ["2023-02-15", 0.7067], ["2023-02-18", 0.7233], ["2023-02-22", 0.7258], ["2023-02-24", 0.73], ["2023-02-25", 0.7383], ["2023-02-26", 0.7425], ["2023-02-28", 0.7475], ["2023-02-28", 0.685], ["2023-03-02", 0.6967], ["2023-03-03", 0.7133], ["2023-03-04", 0.7258], ["2023-03-06", 0.7217], ["2023-03-09", 0.7075], ["2023-03-09", 0.6908], ["2023-03-11", 0.6892], ["2023-03-11", 0.6808], ["2023-03-14", 0.65], ["2023-03-14", 0.65], ["2023-03-15", 0.6317], ["2023-03-15", 0.6025], ["2023-03-15", 0.5942], ["2023-03-16", 0.5758], ["2023-03-19", 0.5967], ["2023-03-19", 0.6092], ["2023-03-19", 0.6258], ["2023-03-20", 0.6467], ["2023-03-21", 0.6425], ["2023-03-22", 0.6367], ["2023-03-22", 0.6317], ["2023-03-23", 0.6225], ["2023-03-24", 0.6092], ["2023-03-24", 0.6133], ["2023-03-25", 0.6233], ["2023-03-29", 0.6067], ["2023-03-29", 0.6108], ["2023-03-31", 0.6267], ["2023-04-01", 0.6767], ["2023-04-01", 0.635], ["2023-04-01", 0.63], ["2023-04-02", 0.6358], ["2023-04-03", 0.6692], ["2023-04-04", 0.6733], ["2023-04-06", 0.6683], ["2023-04-06", 0.6692], ["2023-04-07", 0.69], ["2023-04-07", 0.6917], ["2023-04-07", 0.6908], ["2023-04-10", 0.6825], ["2023-04-12", 0.6867], ["2023-04-12", 0.6825], ["2023-04-13", 0.6858], ["2023-04-13", 0.6758], ["2023-04-14", 0.68], ["2023-04-14", 0.6823], ["2023-04-14", 0.7023], ["2023-04-14", 0.7085], ["2023-04-14", 0.7108], ["2023-04-15", 0.7246], ["2023-04-15", 0.7254], ["2023-04-15", 0.7331], ["2023-04-15", 0.7408], ["2023-04-16", 0.7477], ["2023-04-17", 0.7554], ["2023-04-17", 0.7654], ["2023-04-17", 0.7662], ["2023-04-17", 0.7738], ["2023-04-17", 0.7785], ["2023-04-18", 0.78], ["2023-04-20", 0.7969], ["2023-04-20", 0.7992], ["2023-04-20", 0.8038], ["2023-04-20", 0.8115], ["2023-04-21", 0.8131], ["2023-04-21", 0.8264], ["2023-04-21", 0.8371], ["2023-04-22", 0.8393], ["2023-04-22", 0.8679], ["2023-04-23", 0.8714], ["2023-04-23", 0.8721], ["2023-04-23", 0.8721], ["2023-04-23", 0.8721]] | ["https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5fiT6c0MQ58", "https://politiko.al/english/kosova/sot-heshtje-zgjedhore-ne-veri-te-kosoves-neser-votime-ne-kater-komuna-i480634", "https://kossev.info/dnd-trenutne-okolnosti-ne-omogucavaju-slobodne-i-fer-izbore-na-severu/", "https://albaniandailynews.com/news/governance-after-april-23-polls-will-not-be-legitimate-in-northern-kosovo-vucic-says-", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/serbs-north-kosovo-boycott-local-elections-2023-04-23/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/main-ethnic-serb-party-calls-vote-boycott-north-kosovo-2023-04-21/", "https://kossev.info/ten-cars-torched-in-less-than-a-week-in-the-north/", "https://www.b92.net/eng/news/politics.php?yyyy=2023&mm=04&dd=13&nav_id=115782", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kosovo-serbs-refuse-participate-local-elections-2023-04-07/", "https://www.rferl.org/a/kosovo-serbs-special-elections-boycott/32375661.html", "https://prishtinainsight.com/assembly-speaker-says-serbia-trying-to-destabilize-north-ahead-of-elections/", "https://www.eurasiagroup.net/live-post/atlas-of-impunity-2023", "https://www.rtklive.com/en/news-single.php?ID=23149", "https://kosovapress.com/en/only-19-polling-stations-for-the-elections-in-the-north/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kosovo-puts-voting-containers-serb-majority-areas-despite-boycott-2023-04-20/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQJzt48wXbA", "https://kosovapress.com/en/kurti-the-final-preparations-are-being-made-for-the-elections-in-the-north-to-be-peaceful-and-democratic/", "https://www.kosovo-online.com/en/news/politics/cec-has-not-yet-determined-polling-stations-north-kosovo-13-4-2023", "https://www.reuters.com/world/kosovo-police-suspend-four-officers-they-accuse-wounding-serb-2023-04-11/", "https://www.independent.co.uk/news/hashim-thaci-ap-kosovo-the-hague-netherlands-b2313908.html", "https://kossev.info/seven-cars-torched-in-four-northern-municipalities-in-5-days/", "https://albaniandailynews.com/news/us-to-recognize-elections-in-north-kosovo-despite-serbs-boycott", "https://balkaninsight.com/2023/04/13/serbia-conditions-disputed-elections-in-north-on-serb-municipalities-body/", "https://kossev.info/vucic-srpski-predstavnici-doneli-odluku-da-ne-ucestvuju-na-izborima-narod-da-to-postuje/", "https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/kosovo-serbia-tensions-spike-significantly-over-weekend/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2023-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2635 |
<p>Inflation, war, and other factors continue to be a drag on world economic growth (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2022/11/18/why-a-global-recession-is-inevitable-in-2023" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2022/10/11/world-economic-outlook-october-2022" target="_blank">IMF World Economic Outlook October 2022</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using IMF world GDP percent change data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2023, which is expected in April 2023, and comparing it to the October 2022 World Economic Outlook world GDP percentage change. At the IMF website (<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending" target="_blank">IMF - World Economic Outlooks</a>), choose the appropriate "World Economic Outlook Database"; then choose "Entire Dataset"; then download the "By Country Groups" file in the "Tab Delimited Values" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as "Gross domestic product, constant prices" and Units as "Percent change." World GDP percentage change in constant prices for 2022 was estimated to be 3.192% according to the October 2022 report (<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2022/October/download-entire-database" target="_blank">IMF - World Economic Outlook Database October 2022</a>). The data may also be seen using the IMF's reporting tool here: (<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2022/October/weo-report?a=1&c=001,&s=NGDP_RPCH,&sy=2020&ey=2027&ssm=0&scsm=1&scc=0&ssd=1&ssc=0&sic=0&sort=country&ds=.&br=1" target="_blank">IMF</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-04-11 | Will the IMF raise its estimate of the world's real GDP percentage change in 2022 relative to 2021 in its first 2023 World Economic Outlook? | 2022-11-18 | [["2022-11-18", 0.0], ["2022-11-18", 0.2], ["2022-11-18", 0.1333], ["2022-11-18", 0.15], ["2022-11-19", 0.12], ["2022-11-19", 0.1167], ["2022-11-19", 0.1], ["2022-11-19", 0.0875], ["2022-11-19", 0.0878], ["2022-11-19", 0.0878], ["2022-11-19", 0.134], ["2022-11-19", 0.1991], ["2022-11-19", 0.1933], ["2022-11-19", 0.2246], ["2022-11-19", 0.2564], ["2022-11-19", 0.2393], ["2022-11-19", 0.2669], ["2022-11-19", 0.31], ["2022-11-19", 0.2983], ["2022-11-19", 0.2932], ["2022-11-19", 0.2835], ["2022-11-19", 0.2795], ["2022-11-19", 0.2982], ["2022-11-19", 0.3113], ["2022-11-19", 0.2983], ["2022-11-19", 0.2904], ["2022-11-19", 0.2908], ["2022-11-19", 0.3078], ["2022-11-19", 0.3115], ["2022-11-19", 0.3039], ["2022-11-19", 0.3279], ["2022-11-20", 0.317], ["2022-11-20", 0.3132], ["2022-11-20", 0.3206], ["2022-11-20", 0.3206], ["2022-11-20", 0.3412], ["2022-11-20", 0.3606], ["2022-11-20", 0.3594], ["2022-11-20", 0.36], ["2022-11-20", 0.364], ["2022-11-20", 0.3608], ["2022-11-20", 0.3611], ["2022-11-20", 0.3554], ["2022-11-20", 0.3557], ["2022-11-20", 0.3597], ["2022-11-20", 0.3603], ["2022-11-20", 0.3611], ["2022-11-21", 0.3713], ["2022-11-21", 0.3644], ["2022-11-21", 0.3553], ["2022-11-21", 0.3563], ["2022-11-21", 0.3479], ["2022-11-21", 0.356], ["2022-11-21", 0.3593], ["2022-11-21", 0.3513], ["2022-11-21", 0.3633], ["2022-11-21", 0.3555], ["2022-11-22", 0.3577], ["2022-11-22", 0.3638], ["2022-11-22", 0.3665], ["2022-11-22", 0.3682], ["2022-11-22", 0.3752], ["2022-11-22", 0.373], ["2022-11-22", 0.3784], ["2022-11-23", 0.3522], ["2022-11-23", 0.3414], ["2022-11-23", 0.3297], ["2022-11-23", 0.309], ["2022-11-23", 0.2826], ["2022-11-23", 0.2792], ["2022-11-23", 0.2796], ["2022-11-23", 0.2885], ["2022-11-23", 0.2889], ["2022-11-23", 0.2861], ["2022-11-23", 0.2934], ["2022-11-23", 0.292], ["2022-11-23", 0.2868], ["2022-11-23", 0.3013], ["2022-11-23", 0.2974], ["2022-11-23", 0.3069], ["2022-11-23", 0.3088], ["2022-11-23", 0.3], ["2022-11-23", 0.2946], ["2022-11-24", 0.3148], ["2022-11-24", 0.3331], ["2022-11-24", 0.323], ["2022-11-24", 0.3179], ["2022-11-24", 0.2994], ["2022-11-24", 0.316], ["2022-11-24", 0.3086], ["2022-11-24", 0.3232], ["2022-11-24", 0.3368], ["2022-11-24", 0.3368], ["2022-11-24", 0.3359], ["2022-11-24", 0.3275], ["2022-11-24", 0.3203], ["2022-11-24", 0.3241], ["2022-11-24", 0.3183], ["2022-11-25", 0.31], ["2022-11-25", 0.3127], ["2022-11-25", 0.3047], ["2022-11-25", 0.3047], ["2022-11-25", 0.2977], ["2022-11-26", 0.2965], ["2022-11-26", 0.3108], ["2022-11-26", 0.3028], ["2022-11-26", 0.2854], ["2022-11-27", 0.2833], ["2022-11-27", 0.2692], ["2022-11-27", 0.2831], ["2022-11-27", 0.2997], ["2022-11-27", 0.2941], ["2022-11-28", 0.2927], ["2022-11-28", 0.2903], ["2022-11-28", 0.2879], ["2022-11-28", 0.285], ["2022-11-29", 0.2868], ["2022-11-30", 0.2855], ["2022-11-30", 0.2863], ["2022-11-30", 0.2768], ["2022-11-30", 0.2726], ["2022-11-30", 0.2841], ["2022-11-30", 0.2833], ["2022-12-01", 0.2897], ["2022-12-01", 0.2828], ["2022-12-01", 0.2821], ["2022-12-01", 0.28], ["2022-12-02", 0.2823], ["2022-12-02", 0.292], ["2022-12-02", 0.2895], ["2022-12-02", 0.2893], ["2022-12-02", 0.2673], ["2022-12-02", 0.276], ["2022-12-03", 0.289], ["2022-12-03", 0.2926], ["2022-12-03", 0.2929], ["2022-12-03", 0.2877], ["2022-12-04", 0.286], ["2022-12-04", 0.286], ["2022-12-04", 0.2795], ["2022-12-05", 0.2786], ["2022-12-05", 0.2791], ["2022-12-05", 0.2916], ["2022-12-05", 0.2743], ["2022-12-05", 0.2527], ["2022-12-05", 0.2527], ["2022-12-05", 0.2527], ["2022-12-05", 0.2525], ["2022-12-05", 0.2669], ["2022-12-06", 0.2609], ["2022-12-06", 0.2639], ["2022-12-06", 0.2661], ["2022-12-07", 0.268], ["2022-12-07", 0.2678], ["2022-12-07", 0.2706], ["2022-12-08", 0.2755], ["2022-12-08", 0.277], ["2022-12-08", 0.2754], ["2022-12-08", 0.2756], ["2022-12-09", 0.2681], ["2022-12-09", 0.2679], ["2022-12-09", 0.2848], ["2022-12-09", 0.2885], ["2022-12-10", 0.2879], ["2022-12-10", 0.2875], ["2022-12-11", 0.2896], ["2022-12-11", 0.2939], ["2022-12-11", 0.2959], ["2022-12-12", 0.3026], ["2022-12-13", 0.3146], ["2022-12-13", 0.3156], ["2022-12-13", 0.3236], ["2022-12-14", 0.3231], ["2022-12-14", 0.3231], ["2022-12-15", 0.3233], ["2022-12-15", 0.3294], ["2022-12-15", 0.3213], ["2022-12-15", 0.3215], ["2022-12-15", 0.3115], ["2022-12-16", 0.316], ["2022-12-16", 0.3163], ["2022-12-16", 0.3162], ["2022-12-16", 0.3215], ["2022-12-16", 0.3172], ["2022-12-16", 0.3166], ["2022-12-17", 0.3166], ["2022-12-17", 0.3158], ["2022-12-17", 0.3147], ["2022-12-18", 0.3145], ["2022-12-18", 0.3106], ["2022-12-18", 0.3122], ["2022-12-19", 0.3141], ["2022-12-19", 0.3135], ["2022-12-19", 0.3133], ["2022-12-19", 0.3128], ["2022-12-20", 0.3156], ["2022-12-20", 0.3207], ["2022-12-20", 0.3218], ["2022-12-20", 0.3215], ["2022-12-21", 0.3213], ["2022-12-21", 0.3193], ["2022-12-21", 0.3142], ["2022-12-22", 0.3154], ["2022-12-22", 0.318], ["2022-12-22", 0.3189], ["2022-12-22", 0.3332], ["2022-12-23", 0.3421], ["2022-12-23", 0.335], ["2022-12-24", 0.3363], ["2022-12-26", 0.3321], ["2022-12-26", 0.3404], ["2022-12-27", 0.3403], ["2022-12-27", 0.3395], ["2022-12-28", 0.3421], ["2022-12-28", 0.3464], ["2022-12-28", 0.3464], ["2022-12-28", 0.3493], ["2022-12-28", 0.3434], ["2022-12-28", 0.3469], ["2022-12-28", 0.3512], ["2022-12-28", 0.3469], ["2022-12-28", 0.3466], ["2022-12-28", 0.35], ["2022-12-29", 0.3608], ["2022-12-29", 0.3633], ["2022-12-29", 0.3625], ["2022-12-29", 0.3628], ["2022-12-30", 0.3667], ["2022-12-30", 0.3733], ["2022-12-30", 0.3802], ["2022-12-30", 0.3803], ["2022-12-30", 0.3892], ["2022-12-30", 0.3879], ["2022-12-30", 0.3976], ["2022-12-30", 0.4083], ["2022-12-30", 0.3973], ["2022-12-30", 0.3911], ["2022-12-31", 0.3917], ["2022-12-31", 0.3995], ["2022-12-31", 0.4011], ["2022-12-31", 0.4003], ["2022-12-31", 0.4142], ["2022-12-31", 0.4162], ["2023-01-01", 0.4162]] | ["https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/11/13/slowing-global-economic-growth-is-increasingly-evident-high-frequency-data-show", "https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/data/WEOhistorical.xlsx", "https://apnews.com/article/health-business-china-united-states-beijing-2819ae1a607f8e59007c143c35637324", "https://fortune.com/2022/11/22/will-the-world-economy-enter-recession-2023-oecd-projection-gdp/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2023-11-18 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3098 |
<p>The 139th playing of "The Game," the annual college football game between the Harvard Crimson and Yale Bulldogs, is scheduled to take place at Yale Bowl Stadium on Saturday 18 November 2023 (<a href="https://alumni.harvard.edu/harvard-yale" target="_blank">Harvard Alumni</a>). Yale leads Harvard in wins since 1875 with an all-time record of 69-61-8 (<a href="https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2021-10-15/harvard-yale-football-memorable-moments-all-time-history" target="_blank">NCAA</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-11-19 | Will the Harvard Crimson defeat the Yale Bulldogs in "The Game" in 2023? | 2023-11-07 | [["2023-11-08", 1.0], ["2023-11-08", 0.9], ["2023-11-08", 0.8167], ["2023-11-08", 0.8533], ["2023-11-08", 0.765], ["2023-11-08", 0.765], ["2023-11-08", 0.722], ["2023-11-08", 0.6833], ["2023-11-08", 0.6857], ["2023-11-08", 0.6813], ["2023-11-08", 0.6667], ["2023-11-08", 0.645], ["2023-11-08", 0.6373], ["2023-11-08", 0.6133], ["2023-11-08", 0.6123], ["2023-11-08", 0.6393], ["2023-11-08", 0.6433], ["2023-11-08", 0.6433], ["2023-11-08", 0.578], ["2023-11-08", 0.5706], ["2023-11-08", 0.5653], ["2023-11-08", 0.5672], ["2023-11-08", 0.5617], ["2023-11-08", 0.5553], ["2023-11-08", 0.5553], ["2023-11-08", 0.555], ["2023-11-08", 0.5286], ["2023-11-09", 0.5386], ["2023-11-09", 0.5413], ["2023-11-09", 0.5188], ["2023-11-09", 0.532], ["2023-11-09", 0.5346], ["2023-11-09", 0.5426], ["2023-11-09", 0.5304], ["2023-11-09", 0.5369], ["2023-11-09", 0.5373], ["2023-11-09", 0.5426], ["2023-11-09", 0.5428], ["2023-11-09", 0.5385], ["2023-11-09", 0.54], ["2023-11-10", 0.5432], ["2023-11-10", 0.5444], ["2023-11-10", 0.5406], ["2023-11-10", 0.5531], ["2023-11-10", 0.557], ["2023-11-10", 0.5608], ["2023-11-10", 0.5631], ["2023-11-11", 0.5665], ["2023-11-11", 0.56], ["2023-11-11", 0.5411], ["2023-11-11", 0.5453], ["2023-11-11", 0.5526], ["2023-11-11", 0.552], ["2023-11-11", 0.5819], ["2023-11-12", 0.5985], ["2023-11-12", 0.6236], ["2023-11-12", 0.6256], ["2023-11-12", 0.6126], ["2023-11-12", 0.6336], ["2023-11-12", 0.6282], ["2023-11-12", 0.651], ["2023-11-12", 0.6485], ["2023-11-13", 0.6652], ["2023-11-13", 0.6645], ["2023-11-13", 0.6639], ["2023-11-13", 0.655], ["2023-11-13", 0.6571], ["2023-11-13", 0.6708], ["2023-11-13", 0.6604], ["2023-11-13", 0.6627], ["2023-11-13", 0.6658], ["2023-11-13", 0.6508], ["2023-11-13", 0.65], ["2023-11-14", 0.656], ["2023-11-14", 0.6628], ["2023-11-14", 0.6631], ["2023-11-14", 0.6669], ["2023-11-14", 0.665], ["2023-11-14", 0.677], ["2023-11-14", 0.6752], ["2023-11-14", 0.6779], ["2023-11-14", 0.6752], ["2023-11-14", 0.689], ["2023-11-14", 0.6936], ["2023-11-14", 0.6893], ["2023-11-14", 0.6897], ["2023-11-14", 0.6867], ["2023-11-14", 0.6887], ["2023-11-15", 0.6903], ["2023-11-15", 0.6981], ["2023-11-15", 0.7026], ["2023-11-15", 0.7022], ["2023-11-15", 0.7075], ["2023-11-15", 0.6997], ["2023-11-15", 0.7027], ["2023-11-15", 0.7073], ["2023-11-15", 0.71], ["2023-11-15", 0.6997], ["2023-11-15", 0.6994], ["2023-11-15", 0.6978], ["2023-11-15", 0.6897], ["2023-11-15", 0.69], ["2023-11-16", 0.6751], ["2023-11-16", 0.6732], ["2023-11-16", 0.661], ["2023-11-16", 0.6534], ["2023-11-16", 0.6503], ["2023-11-16", 0.6438], ["2023-11-16", 0.6518], ["2023-11-16", 0.6556], ["2023-11-16", 0.6624], ["2023-11-16", 0.6654], ["2023-11-16", 0.6749], ["2023-11-16", 0.6729], ["2023-11-16", 0.6736], ["2023-11-16", 0.6733], ["2023-11-16", 0.6641], ["2023-11-16", 0.6638], ["2023-11-16", 0.6638], ["2023-11-16", 0.6574], ["2023-11-16", 0.6584], ["2023-11-17", 0.6604], ["2023-11-17", 0.6587], ["2023-11-17", 0.6596], ["2023-11-17", 0.6583], ["2023-11-17", 0.6604], ["2023-11-17", 0.6548], ["2023-11-17", 0.6606], ["2023-11-17", 0.656], ["2023-11-17", 0.6534], ["2023-11-17", 0.6513], ["2023-11-17", 0.6566], ["2023-11-17", 0.6438], ["2023-11-17", 0.6361], ["2023-11-17", 0.6339], ["2023-11-17", 0.6247], ["2023-11-17", 0.6211], ["2023-11-17", 0.6233], ["2023-11-17", 0.6255], ["2023-11-18", 0.6133], ["2023-11-18", 0.6133]] | ["https://www.kolotv.com/sports/betting/2023/11/11/ivy-league-power-rankings-week-11-harvard/", "https://www.google.com/search?q=yale+football+record&rlz=1C1ONGR_enID1012ID1012&oq=yale+football+recor&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUqDAgAEAAYFBiHAhiABDIMCAAQABgUGIcCGIAEMgwIARAAGBQYhwIYgAQyBwgCEAAYgAQyBggDEEUYOTIHCAQQABiABDIICAUQABgWGB4yCAgGEAAYFhgeMggIBxAAGBYYHjIICAgQABgWGB4yCAgJEAAYFhgeqAIAsAIA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8", "https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/19812/mirror-mirror-on-the-wall-how-do-forecasters-fare-by-their-own-call/", "https://www.foxsports.com/college-football/ivy-league/scores", "https://www.warrennolan.com/fcs/2023/predict-winners?type1=Saturday,%20November%2018&type2=FCS%20Top%2025&date=2023-11-18", "https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/schedule/_/id/108", "https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf-game/harvard-yale-score-odds-november-20-2021/105074", "https://www.dratings.com/predictor/ncaa-football-predictions/6a570c55-ff95-5d75-b1db-6b83d31050af#scroll-spread", "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2021-10-15/harvard-yale-football-memorable-moments-all-time-history", "https://yaledailynews.com/blog/2023/11/17/football-team-150-prepares-for-the-game/", "https://www.bostonherald.com/2023/11/16/harvard-chasing-ivy-title-in-showdown-with-yale/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvard%E2%80%93Yale_football_rivalry#:~:text=He%20will%20get%20hurt.%22,more%20often%20than%20Harvard%2DYale", "https://sportsbookwire.usatoday.com/article/yale-at-harvard-odds-tips-and-betting-trends/", "https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/harvard-vs-yale-prediction-odds-2023-college-basketball-picks-feb-3-best-bets-from-proven-model/amp/", "https://www.westernmassnews.com/sports/betting/2023/11/18/harvard-yale-college-football-picks-predictions/", "https://www.westernmassnews.com/sports/betting/2023/11/11/harvard-pennsylvania-college-football-picks-predictions/", "https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/11/16/sports/harvard-yale-game/", "https://www.warrennolan.com/fcs/2023/predict-winners?type1=Saturday,%20November%2018&amp;type2=FCS%20Top%2025&amp;date=2023-11-18", "https://www.wfsb.com/sports/betting/2023/11/11/yale-princeton-college-football-picks-predictions/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvard%E2%80%93Yale_football_rivalry", "https://www.dratings.com/predictor/ncaa-football-predictions/6a570c55-ff95-5d75-b1db-6b83d31050af", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvard%E2%80%93Yale_football_rivalry#Game_results", "https://gocrimson.com/news/2023/11/13/footballs-craig-named-ivy-league-offensive-player-of-the-week.aspx", "https://www.espn.com/college-football/standings/_/group/22/view/fcs-i-aa", "https://yalebulldogs.com/sports/football/opponent-history/harvard-university/20"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3215 | <p>On 8 January 2024, Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa declared a state of exception (akin to a state of emergency and sometimes translated as "state of emergency") for 60 days after a prominent gang leader escaped from prison (<a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2024-01-08/ecuador-declares-state-of-emergency-amid-prison-chaos" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://en.mercopress.com/2024/01/09/state-of-emergency-decreed-in-ecuador-amid-simultaneous-prison-riots" target="_blank">MercoPress</a>, <a href="https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Ecuador_2021.pdf" target="_blank">Constitution of Ecuador</a>, see Articles 164-166). Violence broke out across the country soon after the declaration (<a href="https://www.eluniverso.com/noticias/ecuador/explosiones-detonaciones-y-secuestros-de-policias-tras-el-estado-de-excepcion-nota/" target="_blank">El Universo</a> [in Spanish], <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20240109-gunmen-burst-into-ecuador-tv-studio-threaten-journalists-live-on-air" target="_blank">France 24</a>). If the decree is canceled or repealed, the question would close "No."</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Will Ecuador's current state of exception be extended beyond 60 days? | 2024-01-12 | [["2024-01-12", 1.0], ["2024-01-12", 0.8], ["2024-01-12", 0.6], ["2024-01-12", 0.67], ["2024-01-12", 0.706], ["2024-01-12", 0.73], ["2024-01-12", 0.7671], ["2024-01-12", 0.7963], ["2024-01-12", 0.7911], ["2024-01-13", 0.812], ["2024-01-13", 0.812]] | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2996 | <p>Tensions have risen between Russian ally Belarus and the bordering NATO member states of Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland as the Belarusian military and Wagner Group forces began drills in the west of the country (<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/07/tensions-rise-as-belarus-begins-military-drills-near-poland-and-lithuania" target="_blank">Guardian</a>, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/poland-troops-belarus-border-wagner-fighters-nato-tensions-rcna98974" target="_blank">NBC News</a>, <a href="https://www.euronews.com/2023/08/16/landlocked-belarus-sees-more-borders-to-the-west-closed-as-tensions-rise" target="_blank">Euronews</a>). Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which created NATO, states that any member can call for consultations when they believe they are under threat, while Article 5 covers collective defense in the event of an armed attack against a member (<a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49187.htm" target="_blank">NATO - Article 4</a>, <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm" target="_blank">NATO - Article 5</a>). Article 4 was last invoked in February 2022 by several NATO member states in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine (<a href="https://www.cnbctv18.com/world/russia-ukraine-war-nato-members-invoke-article-4-what-is-it-12613642.htm" target="_blank">CNBC TV18</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Before 26 February 2024, will a NATO member invoke either Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by Belarus? | 2023-08-24 | [["2023-08-25", 0.59], ["2023-08-25", 0.48], ["2023-08-25", 0.4033], ["2023-08-25", 0.305], ["2023-08-25", 0.3275], ["2023-08-25", 0.328], ["2023-08-25", 0.34], ["2023-08-25", 0.3271], ["2023-08-25", 0.3238], ["2023-08-25", 0.3125], ["2023-08-26", 0.3333], ["2023-08-26", 0.325], ["2023-08-26", 0.3155], ["2023-08-26", 0.2892], ["2023-08-26", 0.2808], ["2023-08-26", 0.2877], ["2023-08-26", 0.2764], ["2023-08-26", 0.2713], ["2023-08-26", 0.2638], ["2023-08-26", 0.2488], ["2023-08-27", 0.235], ["2023-08-27", 0.2268], ["2023-08-27", 0.228], ["2023-08-27", 0.2176], ["2023-08-27", 0.2195], ["2023-08-27", 0.2148], ["2023-08-27", 0.2055], ["2023-08-27", 0.2036], ["2023-08-27", 0.197], ["2023-08-27", 0.1922], ["2023-08-27", 0.1863], ["2023-08-27", 0.2048], ["2023-08-27", 0.1872], ["2023-08-27", 0.1812], ["2023-08-28", 0.1819], ["2023-08-28", 0.1819], ["2023-08-28", 0.1793], ["2023-08-28", 0.1746], ["2023-08-28", 0.1686], ["2023-08-28", 0.1663], ["2023-08-28", 0.169], ["2023-08-28", 0.1533], ["2023-08-28", 0.1548], ["2023-08-28", 0.1286], ["2023-08-28", 0.1241], ["2023-08-28", 0.1283], ["2023-08-29", 0.1255], ["2023-08-29", 0.1239], ["2023-08-29", 0.1214], ["2023-08-29", 0.1183], ["2023-08-29", 0.1183], ["2023-08-29", 0.1177], ["2023-08-29", 0.1143], ["2023-08-29", 0.1143], ["2023-08-29", 0.1139], ["2023-08-30", 0.1161], ["2023-08-30", 0.1211], ["2023-08-30", 0.1186], ["2023-08-30", 0.1241], ["2023-08-31", 0.1005], ["2023-08-31", 0.1014], ["2023-09-01", 0.0988], ["2023-09-01", 0.1006], ["2023-09-01", 0.0929], ["2023-09-01", 0.0906], ["2023-09-01", 0.0871], ["2023-09-01", 0.1017], ["2023-09-01", 0.0933], ["2023-09-01", 0.0922], ["2023-09-02", 0.1033], ["2023-09-02", 0.0944], ["2023-09-02", 0.09], ["2023-09-02", 0.0889], ["2023-09-02", 0.0816], ["2023-09-03", 0.0684], ["2023-09-03", 0.0711], ["2023-09-03", 0.07], ["2023-09-04", 0.07], ["2023-09-04", 0.1216], ["2023-09-04", 0.07], ["2023-09-05", 0.0679], ["2023-09-06", 0.0655], ["2023-09-07", 0.0695], ["2023-09-07", 0.0675], ["2023-09-07", 0.0715], ["2023-09-08", 0.07], ["2023-09-08", 0.069], ["2023-09-09", 0.074], ["2023-09-09", 0.076], ["2023-09-10", 0.0724], ["2023-09-10", 0.071], ["2023-09-11", 0.0733], ["2023-09-12", 0.0733], ["2023-09-12", 0.071], ["2023-09-12", 0.0652], ["2023-09-12", 0.0671], ["2023-09-13", 0.0705], ["2023-09-13", 0.0686], ["2023-09-13", 0.0768], ["2023-09-13", 0.07], ["2023-09-15", 0.0791], ["2023-09-17", 0.0741], ["2023-09-18", 0.0743], ["2023-09-19", 0.0787], ["2023-09-19", 0.083], ["2023-09-20", 0.0852], ["2023-09-21", 0.0842], ["2023-09-22", 0.0829], ["2023-09-22", 0.0767], ["2023-09-23", 0.0758], ["2023-09-24", 0.0746], ["2023-09-26", 0.0742], ["2023-09-26", 0.0721], ["2023-09-27", 0.0779], ["2023-09-27", 0.0768], ["2023-09-29", 0.0748], ["2023-09-30", 0.0668], ["2023-09-30", 0.0668], ["2023-09-30", 0.066], ["2023-10-01", 0.0648], ["2023-10-01", 0.0624], ["2023-10-03", 0.0677], ["2023-10-05", 0.0696], ["2023-10-07", 0.0692], ["2023-10-08", 0.0681], ["2023-10-08", 0.0692], ["2023-10-08", 0.0696], ["2023-10-08", 0.0688], ["2023-10-09", 0.0688], ["2023-10-09", 0.0685], ["2023-10-10", 0.0688], ["2023-10-11", 0.0689], ["2023-10-12", 0.067], ["2023-10-12", 0.0593], ["2023-10-12", 0.0581], ["2023-10-13", 0.057], ["2023-10-14", 0.0581], ["2023-10-14", 0.0526], ["2023-10-16", 0.0496], ["2023-10-16", 0.0496], ["2023-10-16", 0.0485], ["2023-10-18", 0.0467], ["2023-10-18", 0.0452], ["2023-10-19", 0.0467], ["2023-10-19", 0.0463], ["2023-10-19", 0.0454], ["2023-10-20", 0.0471], ["2023-10-20", 0.0471], ["2023-10-21", 0.0693], ["2023-10-21", 0.0468], ["2023-10-22", 0.0436], ["2023-10-22", 0.0489], ["2023-10-23", 0.0479], ["2023-10-23", 0.0482], ["2023-10-23", 0.0476], ["2023-10-23", 0.0493], ["2023-10-25", 0.0493], ["2023-10-25", 0.0486], ["2023-10-26", 0.0486], ["2023-10-26", 0.0428], ["2023-10-26", 0.0421], ["2023-10-26", 0.0407], ["2023-10-27", 0.0462], ["2023-10-29", 0.0428], ["2023-10-30", 0.0424], ["2023-10-30", 0.041], ["2023-10-31", 0.0403], ["2023-10-31", 0.0523], ["2023-10-31", 0.0537], ["2023-10-31", 0.0523], ["2023-10-31", 0.0577], ["2023-11-01", 0.0677], ["2023-11-01", 0.0673], ["2023-11-01", 0.073], ["2023-11-01", 0.0733], ["2023-11-01", 0.074], ["2023-11-02", 0.0813], ["2023-11-02", 0.0813], ["2023-11-02", 0.0806], ["2023-11-05", 0.0806], ["2023-11-06", 0.0774], ["2023-11-07", 0.0784], ["2023-11-08", 0.0784], ["2023-11-08", 0.0784], ["2023-11-08", 0.0784], ["2023-11-08", 0.0777], ["2023-11-09", 0.0729], ["2023-11-10", 0.0935], ["2023-11-10", 0.0797], ["2023-11-12", 0.0797], ["2023-11-13", 0.0806], ["2023-11-13", 0.079], ["2023-11-13", 0.0774], ["2023-11-14", 0.075], ["2023-11-14", 0.0719], ["2023-11-14", 0.0725], ["2023-11-15", 0.0722], ["2023-11-16", 0.0747], ["2023-11-17", 0.0753], ["2023-11-17", 0.0738], ["2023-11-18", 0.0741], ["2023-11-18", 0.0721], ["2023-11-19", 0.0721], ["2023-11-19", 0.0727], ["2023-11-19", 0.0721], ["2023-11-20", 0.0721], ["2023-11-20", 0.0748], ["2023-11-21", 0.0745], ["2023-11-21", 0.0732], ["2023-11-22", 0.0744], ["2023-11-23", 0.0729], ["2023-11-24", 0.0729], ["2023-11-25", 0.0721], ["2023-11-26", 0.0715], ["2023-11-27", 0.0724], ["2023-11-27", 0.0709], ["2023-11-27", 0.0689], ["2023-11-27", 0.0689], ["2023-11-27", 0.0686], ["2023-11-28", 0.068], ["2023-11-29", 0.068], ["2023-11-29", 0.0677], ["2023-11-30", 0.0677], ["2023-12-02", 0.0674], ["2023-12-03", 0.0674], ["2023-12-03", 0.0674], ["2023-12-03", 0.0674], ["2023-12-03", 0.0674], ["2023-12-05", 0.056], ["2023-12-05", 0.0554], ["2023-12-05", 0.0589], ["2023-12-06", 0.0589], ["2023-12-07", 0.0586], ["2023-12-08", 0.0574], ["2023-12-09", 0.0566], ["2023-12-10", 0.0564], ["2023-12-11", 0.0514], ["2023-12-11", 0.0511], ["2023-12-11", 0.0511], ["2023-12-12", 0.0511], ["2023-12-12", 0.0511], ["2023-12-13", 0.0511], ["2023-12-13", 0.0525], ["2023-12-13", 0.0544], ["2023-12-14", 0.0544], ["2023-12-14", 0.0531], ["2023-12-14", 0.0522], ["2023-12-14", 0.0519], ["2023-12-15", 0.0514], ["2023-12-15", 0.0508], ["2023-12-17", 0.0508], ["2023-12-19", 0.0508], ["2023-12-19", 0.0464], ["2023-12-20", 0.0439], ["2023-12-20", 0.0436], ["2023-12-22", 0.0436], ["2023-12-23", 0.0433], ["2023-12-25", 0.0433], ["2023-12-25", 0.0419], ["2023-12-26", 0.0428], ["2023-12-26", 0.0425], ["2023-12-26", 0.0414], ["2023-12-26", 0.0392], ["2023-12-27", 0.0392], ["2023-12-27", 0.0405], ["2023-12-27", 0.0405], ["2023-12-27", 0.0397], ["2023-12-27", 0.0392], ["2023-12-28", 0.039], ["2023-12-28", 0.0526], ["2023-12-29", 0.0518], ["2023-12-29", 0.0528], ["2023-12-29", 0.051], ["2023-12-30", 0.051], ["2023-12-31", 0.0505], ["2024-01-01", 0.05], ["2024-01-01", 0.0503], ["2024-01-01", 0.049], ["2024-01-02", 0.0454], ["2024-01-02", 0.0454], ["2024-01-02", 0.0456], ["2024-01-02", 0.0456], ["2024-01-02", 0.0445], ["2024-01-02", 0.0433], ["2024-01-03", 0.0457], ["2024-01-03", 0.0421], ["2024-01-03", 0.0464], ["2024-01-03", 0.0456], ["2024-01-03", 0.0456], ["2024-01-04", 0.0451], ["2024-01-04", 0.0451], ["2024-01-05", 0.0491], ["2024-01-05", 0.0502], ["2024-01-05", 0.0491], ["2024-01-05", 0.0489], ["2024-01-05", 0.0443], ["2024-01-06", 0.0445], ["2024-01-06", 0.0434], ["2024-01-06", 0.0355], ["2024-01-06", 0.0347], ["2024-01-06", 0.0347], ["2024-01-06", 0.0331], ["2024-01-06", 0.0331], ["2024-01-07", 0.0324], ["2024-01-07", 0.0322], ["2024-01-07", 0.0324], ["2024-01-08", 0.032], ["2024-01-08", 0.033], ["2024-01-09", 0.033], ["2024-01-09", 0.0335], ["2024-01-10", 0.0328], ["2024-01-10", 0.0323], ["2024-01-10", 0.0319], ["2024-01-11", 0.0315], ["2024-01-12", 0.0306], ["2024-01-12", 0.0306]] | ["https://news.err.ee/1608296814/mep-nato-article-4-should-be-invoked-against-belarus", "https://www.ft.com/content/99674f10-4d90-447d-9eeb-e85e910f1cbf", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/romania-finds-drone-crater-after-russian-attack-ukrainian-infrastructure-2023-12-14/", "https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-4-2023", "https://www.politico.eu/article/belarus-aleksander-lukashenko-improve-relations-poland/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/satellite-images-appear-show-wagner-camp-belarus-being-dismantled-2023-09-14/", "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/poland-baltic-states-warn-they-could-seal-borders-with-belarus-if-military-migrant-tensions-grow", "https://www.ft.com/content/15eef330-54f8-48ef-8a3d-1774e7928957", "https://kfgo.com/2023/09/26/polish-experts-confirm-missile-that-hit-grain-facility-was-ukrainian-media/", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/polands-leader-says-russias-moving-tactical-nuclear-weapons-to-belarus-shifting-regional-security/ar-AA1fCC0M", "https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49187.htm", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/unidentified-object-entered-poland-direction-ukraine-says-polish-army-2023-12-29/", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66873495", "https://www.euractiv.com/section/defence-and-security/news/poland-lithuania-and-latvia-consider-triggering-natos-article-4/", "https://notesfrompoland.com/2024/01/02/polish-border-guard-report-shows-scale-of-migrant-crisis-from-belarus/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3101 | <p>Bernardo Arévalo won the August 2023 Guatemalan presidential election and is due to be inaugurated on 14 January 2024, but he is facing various obstacles from state institutions (<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/20/americas/bernardo-arevalo-wins-guatemala-presidential-election-intl/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/08/24/guatemala-president-elect-arevalo-challenges-torres" target="_blank">Axios</a>, <a href="https://english.elpais.com/international/2023-11-03/guatemala-electoral-authorities-suspend-president-elect-bernardo-arevalos-seed-movement.html" target="_blank">El País</a>, <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20231103-guatemalan-electoral-authority-suspends-part-of-president-elect-ar%C3%A9valo" target="_blank">France 24</a>, <a href="https://usoas.usmission.gov/pc-declaration-on-guatemala/" target="_blank">US Mission to Org. of American States</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Will Bernardo Arévalo be inaugurated as President of Guatemala before 16 January 2024? | 2023-11-09 | [["2023-11-10", 0.58], ["2023-11-10", 0.69], ["2023-11-10", 0.49], ["2023-11-10", 0.5375], ["2023-11-10", 0.54], ["2023-11-11", 0.578], ["2023-11-11", 0.615], ["2023-11-11", 0.6414], ["2023-11-11", 0.7586], ["2023-11-11", 0.7263], ["2023-11-11", 0.7375], ["2023-11-11", 0.7389], ["2023-11-11", 0.74], ["2023-11-11", 0.7644], ["2023-11-12", 0.76], ["2023-11-12", 0.7773], ["2023-11-12", 0.7958], ["2023-11-12", 0.8038], ["2023-11-12", 0.8115], ["2023-11-12", 0.8036], ["2023-11-12", 0.8167], ["2023-11-13", 0.8175], ["2023-11-13", 0.8282], ["2023-11-13", 0.8217], ["2023-11-13", 0.83], ["2023-11-14", 0.8413], ["2023-11-14", 0.8792], ["2023-11-14", 0.8754], ["2023-11-14", 0.8714], ["2023-11-17", 0.815], ["2023-11-17", 0.809], ["2023-11-17", 0.829], ["2023-11-18", 0.829], ["2023-11-18", 0.829], ["2023-11-18", 0.836], ["2023-11-19", 0.835], ["2023-11-19", 0.839], ["2023-11-19", 0.844], ["2023-11-20", 0.845], ["2023-11-23", 0.832], ["2023-11-27", 0.858], ["2023-11-27", 0.879], ["2023-11-27", 0.881], ["2023-11-28", 0.866], ["2023-11-29", 0.845], ["2023-11-30", 0.845], ["2023-12-03", 0.845], ["2023-12-04", 0.847], ["2023-12-04", 0.849], ["2023-12-07", 0.849], ["2023-12-08", 0.879], ["2023-12-09", 0.849], ["2023-12-09", 0.844], ["2023-12-10", 0.853], ["2023-12-11", 0.856], ["2023-12-11", 0.869], ["2023-12-12", 0.871], ["2023-12-12", 0.871], ["2023-12-12", 0.858], ["2023-12-13", 0.7936], ["2023-12-14", 0.7945], ["2023-12-14", 0.7991], ["2023-12-15", 0.8036], ["2023-12-17", 0.8064], ["2023-12-19", 0.8036], ["2023-12-19", 0.8036], ["2023-12-21", 0.7945], ["2023-12-22", 0.7927], ["2023-12-22", 0.7973], ["2023-12-23", 0.7991], ["2023-12-26", 0.7991], ["2023-12-26", 0.7991], ["2023-12-26", 0.7964], ["2023-12-30", 0.7973], ["2023-12-31", 0.7982], ["2024-01-01", 0.8255], ["2024-01-02", 0.8345], ["2024-01-03", 0.7833], ["2024-01-03", 0.7817], ["2024-01-06", 0.7825], ["2024-01-07", 0.79], ["2024-01-08", 0.7925], ["2024-01-09", 0.7942], ["2024-01-09", 0.7942], ["2024-01-09", 0.8008], ["2024-01-09", 0.8042], ["2024-01-09", 0.8058], ["2024-01-09", 0.8067], ["2024-01-12", 0.8075], ["2024-01-13", 0.8767], ["2024-01-13", 0.8767]] | ["https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/international-backlash-grows-after-move-strip-guatemalan-president-elects-2023-11-19/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/guatemalan-prosecutor-moves-strip-president-elects-immunity-2023-11-17/", "https://www.laprensalatina.com/guatemalas-highest-court-orders-elected-authorities-to-take-office-in-january/", "https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2023-12-11/u-s-restricting-visas-for-nearly-300-guatemalan-lawmakers-for-undermining-democracy", "https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/11/28/readout-of-national-security-advisor-to-the-vice-president-philip-gordons-travel-to-guatemala/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/01/12/bernardo-arevalo-guatemala-inauguration-biden/", "https://apnews.com/article/cc13b9e14ffd4f99da4d3e751ca5c44d", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Guatemalan_constitutional_crisis", "https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/07/07/guatemala-respect-election-results", "https://www.abc.es/internacional/fiscalia-guatemalteca-busca-declarar-nulo-proceso-electoral-20231208225213-nt.html", "https://time.com/6551712/guatemala-inauguration-arevalo/", "https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20231215-guatemala-s-top-court-orders-congress-to-guarantee-president-elect-arevalo-s-inauguration", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_Guatemalan_general_election", "https://www.barrons.com/news/no-way-to-stop-his-inauguration-says-guatemala-s-arevalo-09ada49f"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3074 | <p>As Russia's war in Ukraine grinds on, Ukraine has tried to restart trade via the Black Sea after the expiration of the Black Sea Grain Initiative in July 2023 (<a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-defies-russia-threat-trying-115634651.html" target="_blank">Yahoo</a>, <a href="https://www.un.org/en/black-sea-grain-initiative" target="_blank">UN - Black Sea Grain Initiative</a>, <a href="https://farmpolicynews.illinois.edu/2023/10/twelve-additional-ships-to-enter-black-sea-humanitarian-corridor/" target="_blank">Farm Policy News</a>). For the purposes of this question, "attacking" means striking a pertinent vessel with a weapon (e.g., bullets, missiles, but not fire hoses, throwing garbage, etc.) or deliberately ramming that vessel with another vessel.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Before 1 July 2024, will NATO or a NATO member state publicly accuse Russia of attacking a crewed, non-Ukrainian-flagged vessel in the Black Sea outside of Ukrainian and Russian territorial waters? | 2023-10-19 | [["2023-10-20", 0.09], ["2023-10-20", 0.07], ["2023-10-20", 0.0567], ["2023-10-20", 0.065], ["2023-10-20", 0.0525], ["2023-10-20", 0.242], ["2023-10-21", 0.2383], ["2023-10-21", 0.2043], ["2023-10-21", 0.185], ["2023-10-21", 0.1838], ["2023-10-21", 0.1813], ["2023-10-21", 0.1978], ["2023-10-21", 0.203], ["2023-10-21", 0.1845], ["2023-10-22", 0.1733], ["2023-10-22", 0.2008], ["2023-10-22", 0.2008], ["2023-10-22", 0.19], ["2023-10-22", 0.1973], ["2023-10-22", 0.1967], ["2023-10-22", 0.1944], ["2023-10-22", 0.1859], ["2023-10-22", 0.2172], ["2023-10-22", 0.2167], ["2023-10-23", 0.2116], ["2023-10-23", 0.2568], ["2023-10-23", 0.2894], ["2023-10-24", 0.2872], ["2023-10-24", 0.2747], ["2023-10-24", 0.3044], ["2023-10-25", 0.3106], ["2023-10-26", 0.359], ["2023-10-26", 0.386], ["2023-10-26", 0.353], ["2023-10-26", 0.3891], ["2023-10-26", 0.3436], ["2023-10-27", 0.3482], ["2023-10-27", 0.3355], ["2023-10-27", 0.3192], ["2023-10-27", 0.3175], ["2023-10-27", 0.2975], ["2023-10-29", 0.2917], ["2023-10-29", 0.2333], ["2023-10-29", 0.2231], ["2023-10-30", 0.2146], ["2023-10-30", 0.23], ["2023-10-30", 0.23], ["2023-10-31", 0.2277], ["2023-11-02", 0.23], ["2023-11-02", 0.2277], ["2023-11-02", 0.2269], ["2023-11-03", 0.2192], ["2023-11-03", 0.2162], ["2023-11-04", 0.2069], ["2023-11-04", 0.1993], ["2023-11-05", 0.2064], ["2023-11-05", 0.2036], ["2023-11-05", 0.2036], ["2023-11-05", 0.2043], ["2023-11-05", 0.2057], ["2023-11-07", 0.205], ["2023-11-07", 0.2029], ["2023-11-07", 0.1814], ["2023-11-08", 0.1793], ["2023-11-08", 0.1629], ["2023-11-09", 0.1687], ["2023-11-09", 0.206], ["2023-11-09", 0.2007], ["2023-11-09", 0.2347], ["2023-11-10", 0.2313], ["2023-11-11", 0.2244], ["2023-11-11", 0.2213], ["2023-11-11", 0.2575], ["2023-11-12", 0.2744], ["2023-11-12", 0.2744], ["2023-11-12", 0.3306], ["2023-11-12", 0.3394], ["2023-11-12", 0.3329], ["2023-11-13", 0.3418], ["2023-11-13", 0.3429], ["2023-11-13", 0.3665], ["2023-11-13", 0.3829], ["2023-11-13", 0.3741], ["2023-11-14", 0.3747], ["2023-11-14", 0.3629], ["2023-11-15", 0.3665], ["2023-11-15", 0.3565], ["2023-11-15", 0.3447], ["2023-11-16", 0.3447], ["2023-11-16", 0.3441], ["2023-11-17", 0.3694], ["2023-11-18", 0.4128], ["2023-11-18", 0.46], ["2023-11-19", 0.4628], ["2023-11-19", 0.4489], ["2023-11-19", 0.4874], ["2023-11-19", 0.4558], ["2023-11-19", 0.433], ["2023-11-19", 0.433], ["2023-11-20", 0.432], ["2023-11-20", 0.432], ["2023-11-20", 0.432], ["2023-11-20", 0.449], ["2023-11-21", 0.45], ["2023-11-21", 0.4225], ["2023-11-21", 0.4333], ["2023-11-21", 0.4405], ["2023-11-22", 0.4405], ["2023-11-22", 0.4438], ["2023-11-22", 0.4418], ["2023-11-23", 0.4314], ["2023-11-23", 0.42], ["2023-11-24", 0.4164], ["2023-11-24", 0.4309], ["2023-11-24", 0.4048], ["2023-11-24", 0.3817], ["2023-11-24", 0.38], ["2023-11-25", 0.38], ["2023-11-25", 0.3383], ["2023-11-25", 0.3367], ["2023-11-25", 0.3367], ["2023-11-25", 0.3671], ["2023-11-25", 0.4004], ["2023-11-25", 0.4254], ["2023-11-26", 0.4124], ["2023-11-27", 0.4524], ["2023-11-27", 0.4735], ["2023-11-27", 0.4758], ["2023-11-27", 0.4777], ["2023-11-27", 0.4627], ["2023-11-27", 0.4665], ["2023-11-27", 0.4554], ["2023-11-28", 0.4385], ["2023-11-29", 0.437], ["2023-12-01", 0.437], ["2023-12-02", 0.4296], ["2023-12-03", 0.4296], ["2023-12-03", 0.4341], ["2023-12-04", 0.4322], ["2023-12-05", 0.4526], ["2023-12-05", 0.4382], ["2023-12-06", 0.4393], ["2023-12-07", 0.4329], ["2023-12-07", 0.4329], ["2023-12-08", 0.4403], ["2023-12-08", 0.4366], ["2023-12-08", 0.4107], ["2023-12-08", 0.4107], ["2023-12-09", 0.4003], ["2023-12-10", 0.3983], ["2023-12-10", 0.387], ["2023-12-11", 0.3827], ["2023-12-11", 0.3823], ["2023-12-11", 0.3813], ["2023-12-12", 0.4033], ["2023-12-13", 0.4033], ["2023-12-13", 0.4033], ["2023-12-13", 0.4027], ["2023-12-13", 0.4177], ["2023-12-13", 0.4177], ["2023-12-14", 0.4287], ["2023-12-14", 0.4287], ["2023-12-14", 0.4287], ["2023-12-15", 0.4087], ["2023-12-15", 0.4087], ["2023-12-17", 0.4006], ["2023-12-18", 0.401], ["2023-12-18", 0.401], ["2023-12-18", 0.3881], ["2023-12-18", 0.4158], ["2023-12-20", 0.4122], ["2023-12-21", 0.3841], ["2023-12-21", 0.3825], ["2023-12-21", 0.4044], ["2023-12-21", 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["2024-01-12", 0.377], ["2024-01-12", 0.3741], ["2024-01-12", 0.3732], ["2024-01-12", 0.3732]] | ["https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2023/12/26/ukraine-claims-to-have-destroyed-russian-ship-in-crimea-attack", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/ukraine-grain-exports-via-new-black-sea-corridor-hit-4-mln-t-zelenskiy-2023-11-14/", "https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraines-f-16s-could-come-with-these-weapons", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sea_Grain_Initiative", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67834841", "https://news.usni.org/2022/02/28/turkey-closes-bosphorus-dardanelles-straits-to-warships", "https://lieber.westpoint.edu/russias-interdiction-neutral-merchant-vessels-law-sea/", "https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russias-black-sea-fleet-dying-slow-and-painful-death-208162", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/reuters-next-un-chief-says-it-will-be-difficult-revive-black-sea-grain-deal-2023-11-08/", "https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ukrainian-strikes-have-changed-russian-naval-operations-in-the-black-sea", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/netherlands-deliver-18-f-16-fighter-jets-ukraine-2023-12-22/", "https://farmpolicynews.illinois.edu/2023/11/special-convoys-to-assist-in-black-sea-transports-corridor-essential-for-ukrainian-farming-to-survive/", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/russia-is-not-interested-extending-black-sea-grain-deal-ria-2023-12-17/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ukraine_campaign", "https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/BLACK-SEA/ship-traffic-tracker", "https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2024/01/turkey-block-uk-minesweeper-ships-intended-ukraine", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67360440", "https://news.usni.org/2023/11/15/a-brief-summary-of-the-battle-of-the-black-sea", "https://kyivindependent.com/media-oil-tanker-hits-mine-in-black-sea/", "https://meduza.io/en/news/2023/11/26/west-to-provide-ukraine-with-military-ships-for-escorting-vessels-carrying-grain-in-black-sea-says-zelensky", "https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-67676029", "https://the1014.co.nz/uncategorized/ukraines-kamikaze-drone-boat-washes-ashore-on-crimean-coast-is-russian-ew-behind-the-act/232206/", "https://www.economist.com/briefing/2023/10/05/the-war-in-ukraine-is-threatening-to-wash-across-the-black-sea", "https://news.yahoo.com/chasing-russia-black-sea-fleet-152000541.html", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/8/ukraine-says-russia-struck-civilian-ship-near-odesa"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3123 | <p>The Supreme Court agreed to hear challenges to House Bill 20 (HB 20), a Texas law that, among other things, prohibits qualifying social media companies from censoring users based on the viewpoint of their expression (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2023/11/13/can-america-regulate-big-tech-at-all" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-signs-law-protecting-texans-from-wrongful-social-media-censorship" target="_blank">Texas.gov</a>, <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2023/22-555" target="_blank">Oyez</a>, <a href="https://legiscan.com/TX/text/HB20/2021/X2" target="_blank">LegiScan - HB 20</a>, see Section 7). The district court issued a preliminary injunction barring enforcement of the law, which the Fifth Circuit reversed and NetChoice appealed to the Supreme Court (<a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/netchoice-llc-v-paxton/" target="_blank">SCOTUSblog</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/12/5th-circuit-temporarily-blocks-texas-social-media-law-00061555" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2022/9/20/23360804/texas-fifth-circuit-ruling-hb20-supreme-court-speech-first-amendment-moderation" target="_blank">The Verge</a>). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2023 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." If the Court rules that Section 7 facially complies with the First Amendment and/or "as applied" to all parties of the case, the question will close "Yes," regardless of the potential of other future challenges (<a href="https://www.bonalaw.com/insights/legal-resources/differences-between-facial-and-as-applied-challenges-to-the-constitutionality-of-a-statute" target="_blank">Bona Law</a>). The outcome of Moody v. NetChoice, LLC, a companion case out of Florida, is immaterial.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | In NetChoice, LLC v. Paxton, will the Supreme Court rule that the viewpoint-based censorship restrictions (Section 7) in Texas' social media censorship law (HB 20) complies with the First Amendment? | 2023-11-16 | [["2023-11-17", 0.2], ["2023-11-17", 0.175], ["2023-11-17", 0.18], ["2023-11-17", 0.1975], ["2023-11-17", 0.182], ["2023-11-17", 0.1517], ["2023-11-18", 0.3167], ["2023-11-18", 0.2714], ["2023-11-18", 0.2625], ["2023-11-18", 0.2889], ["2023-11-18", 0.26], ["2023-11-18", 0.2636], ["2023-11-18", 0.2618], ["2023-11-18", 0.2608], ["2023-11-18", 0.2408], ["2023-11-18", 0.2531], ["2023-11-18", 0.25], ["2023-11-18", 0.2467], ["2023-11-18", 0.2467], ["2023-11-18", 0.2525], ["2023-11-18", 0.2376], ["2023-11-19", 0.2344], ["2023-11-19", 0.2563], ["2023-11-19", 0.256], ["2023-11-19", 0.2557], ["2023-11-19", 0.2741], ["2023-11-19", 0.2687], ["2023-11-19", 0.2679], ["2023-11-19", 0.2652], ["2023-11-19", 0.2646], ["2023-11-19", 0.2826], ["2023-11-19", 0.2904], ["2023-11-19", 0.2872], ["2023-11-19", 0.2877], 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0.417], ["2024-01-12", 0.4171], ["2024-01-12", 0.4162], ["2024-01-12", 0.4162]] | ["https://globalfreedomofexpression.columbia.edu/cases/netchoice-v-paxton/", "https://www.history.com/news/landmark-supreme-court-cases-overturned", "https://firstamendment.mtsu.edu/article/netchoice-v-paxton-5th-circuit/", "https://reason.com/volokh/2023/09/29/supreme-court-will-consider-cases-challenging-florida-and-texas-social-media-laws/#:~:text=NetChoice%20and%20NetChoice%20v.,the%20Court%20will%20consider%20here", "https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/fifth-circuits-social-media-decision-dangerous-example-first-amendment-absolutism", "https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/netchoice-llc-v-paxton/", "https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/21pdf/21a720_6536.pdf"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2976 | <p>Reports indicate that the US is negotiating an agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia that would include the latter normalizing relations with the former (<a href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-saudi-arabia-normalization-jake-sullivan-mbs-peace-deal-377e3c1e4b4732124b565ed968c5f0c8" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/netanyahu-says-bet-israel-deepening-033001028.html" target="_blank">Yahoo</a>, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/2/us-wants-an-israeli-saudi-normalisation-deal-why-now" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>). Various Arab states recognized or agreed to normalize relations with Israel in 2020 (e.g., <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/12/10/945033413/morocco-becomes-latest-arab-country-to-normalize-ties-with-israel" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/23/politics/trump-sudan-israel/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Will Saudi Arabia publicly announce that it will normalize relations with the State of Israel before 1 September 2024? | 2023-08-11 | [["2023-08-11", 0.8], ["2023-08-11", 0.68], ["2023-08-11", 0.62], ["2023-08-11", 0.5825], ["2023-08-11", 0.586], ["2023-08-11", 0.4883], ["2023-08-11", 0.4757], ["2023-08-12", 0.4771], ["2023-08-12", 0.4175], ["2023-08-12", 0.4489], ["2023-08-12", 0.479], ["2023-08-12", 0.473], ["2023-08-13", 0.4891], ["2023-08-13", 0.4567], ["2023-08-13", 0.4569], ["2023-08-13", 0.4386], ["2023-08-13", 0.446], ["2023-08-13", 0.4244], ["2023-08-13", 0.4141], ["2023-08-13", 0.4188], ["2023-08-13", 0.4156], ["2023-08-14", 0.4111], ["2023-08-14", 0.4075], ["2023-08-14", 0.3606], ["2023-08-14", 0.3606], ["2023-08-14", 0.3818], ["2023-08-15", 0.4022], ["2023-08-15", 0.3837], ["2023-08-15", 0.381], ["2023-08-15", 0.3629], ["2023-08-15", 0.36], ["2023-08-15", 0.34], ["2023-08-17", 0.3317], ["2023-08-17", 0.3233], ["2023-08-21", 0.33], ["2023-08-22", 0.3283], ["2023-08-23", 0.3325], ["2023-08-24", 0.3083], ["2023-08-24", 0.2969], ["2023-08-24", 0.3031], ["2023-08-25", 0.3646], ["2023-08-25", 0.3646], ["2023-08-25", 0.2954], ["2023-08-26", 0.2777], ["2023-08-28", 0.2671], ["2023-08-28", 0.265], ["2023-08-28", 0.2593], ["2023-08-29", 0.27], ["2023-08-29", 0.2914], ["2023-08-30", 0.2993], ["2023-08-30", 0.3171], ["2023-08-30", 0.32], ["2023-09-01", 0.3236], ["2023-09-08", 0.3207], ["2023-09-10", 0.2993], ["2023-09-10", 0.2957], ["2023-09-11", 0.2964], ["2023-09-11", 0.3421], ["2023-09-11", 0.2993], ["2023-09-12", 0.3029], ["2023-09-13", 0.3036], ["2023-09-13", 0.3071], ["2023-09-13", 0.3071], ["2023-09-15", 0.2714], ["2023-09-17", 0.2857], ["2023-09-20", 0.2971], ["2023-09-20", 0.2814], ["2023-09-20", 0.2821], ["2023-09-20", 0.3036], ["2023-09-20", 0.3071], ["2023-09-20", 0.3079], ["2023-09-21", 0.332], ["2023-09-22", 0.3853], ["2023-09-22", 0.4073], ["2023-09-23", 0.4027], ["2023-09-23", 0.362], ["2023-09-25", 0.3633], ["2023-09-25", 0.38], ["2023-09-26", 0.3933], ["2023-09-26", 0.402], ["2023-09-27", 0.424], ["2023-09-27", 0.438], ["2023-09-29", 0.4606], ["2023-09-30", 0.4731], ["2023-09-30", 0.5356], ["2023-10-01", 0.5538], ["2023-10-01", 0.5581], ["2023-10-01", 0.5656], ["2023-10-01", 0.5594], ["2023-10-02", 0.5625], ["2023-10-03", 0.5563], ["2023-10-04", 0.5581], ["2023-10-05", 0.5613], ["2023-10-05", 0.5394], ["2023-10-07", 0.5488], ["2023-10-07", 0.5513], ["2023-10-07", 0.54], ["2023-10-07", 0.5194], ["2023-10-07", 0.515], ["2023-10-07", 0.5119], ["2023-10-07", 0.5075], ["2023-10-07", 0.4888], ["2023-10-07", 0.47], ["2023-10-07", 0.4638], ["2023-10-07", 0.4513], ["2023-10-07", 0.4475], ["2023-10-07", 0.4225], ["2023-10-07", 0.435], ["2023-10-08", 0.4288], ["2023-10-08", 0.4047], ["2023-10-08", 0.4088], ["2023-10-08", 0.3888], ["2023-10-08", 0.35], ["2023-10-08", 0.3441], ["2023-10-08", 0.3341], ["2023-10-09", 0.3324], ["2023-10-09", 0.3318], ["2023-10-09", 0.3341], ["2023-10-10", 0.3265], ["2023-10-10", 0.3206], ["2023-10-12", 0.315], ["2023-10-12", 0.3011], ["2023-10-12", 0.2844], ["2023-10-13", 0.2317], ["2023-10-13", 0.2189], ["2023-10-13", 0.2079], ["2023-10-13", 0.1821], ["2023-10-13", 0.183], ["2023-10-13", 0.1785], ["2023-10-13", 0.168], ["2023-10-13", 0.1535], ["2023-10-13", 0.1435], ["2023-10-14", 0.137], ["2023-10-14", 0.133], ["2023-10-14", 0.1205], ["2023-10-14", 0.1105], ["2023-10-14", 0.1545], ["2023-10-14", 0.182], ["2023-10-14", 0.18], ["2023-10-14", 0.1871], ["2023-10-14", 0.1867], ["2023-10-14", 0.1705], ["2023-10-14", 0.165], ["2023-10-15", 0.1805], ["2023-10-15", 0.1795], ["2023-10-15", 0.2022], ["2023-10-16", 0.1978], ["2023-10-16", 0.1917], ["2023-10-17", 0.1979], ["2023-10-17", 0.2021], ["2023-10-17", 0.1996], ["2023-10-17", 0.1992], ["2023-10-18", 0.2021], ["2023-10-18", 0.2021], ["2023-10-18", 0.1967], ["2023-10-19", 0.1967], ["2023-10-20", 0.2042], ["2023-10-21", 0.2063], ["2023-10-21", 0.2133], ["2023-10-22", 0.2146], ["2023-10-22", 0.2142], ["2023-10-22", 0.2117], ["2023-10-22", 0.1929], ["2023-10-22", 0.1938], ["2023-10-23", 0.194], ["2023-10-23", 0.1964], ["2023-10-23", 0.1672], ["2023-10-24", 0.1592], ["2023-10-24", 0.1868], ["2023-10-24", 0.1888], ["2023-10-25", 0.1764], ["2023-10-25", 0.1848], ["2023-10-26", 0.1848], ["2023-10-26", 0.1848], ["2023-10-27", 0.1928], ["2023-10-27", 0.1988], ["2023-10-27", 0.1988], ["2023-10-28", 0.1969], ["2023-10-29", 0.1908], ["2023-10-29", 0.1831], ["2023-10-29", 0.1804], ["2023-10-31", 0.1831], ["2023-10-31", 0.1831], ["2023-10-31", 0.1935], ["2023-11-01", 0.2004], ["2023-11-02", 0.2019], ["2023-11-02", 0.2012], ["2023-11-02", 0.205], ["2023-11-02", 0.2031], ["2023-11-02", 0.2031], ["2023-11-02", 0.2058], ["2023-11-05", 0.2058], ["2023-11-07", 0.2193], ["2023-11-07", 0.2256], ["2023-11-08", 0.2256], ["2023-11-08", 0.2256], ["2023-11-08", 0.2256], ["2023-11-11", 0.2226], ["2023-11-11", 0.2237], ["2023-11-11", 0.2189], ["2023-11-13", 0.22], ["2023-11-13", 0.223], ["2023-11-13", 0.2237], ["2023-11-14", 0.23], ["2023-11-15", 0.2318], ["2023-11-16", 0.2318], ["2023-11-17", 0.2275], ["2023-11-18", 0.2061], ["2023-11-19", 0.2157], ["2023-11-19", 0.2164], ["2023-11-19", 0.2289], ["2023-11-19", 0.2245], ["2023-11-19", 0.2348], ["2023-11-19", 0.2348], ["2023-11-20", 0.237], ["2023-11-20", 0.237], ["2023-11-20", 0.2383], ["2023-11-20", 0.2517], ["2023-11-20", 0.2513], ["2023-11-20", 0.25], ["2023-11-21", 0.2503], ["2023-11-21", 0.2471], ["2023-11-21", 0.2519], ["2023-11-21", 0.2569], ["2023-11-21", 0.2653], ["2023-11-21", 0.2669], ["2023-11-22", 0.2684], ["2023-11-22", 0.2728], ["2023-11-22", 0.2767], ["2023-11-24", 0.2803], ["2023-11-24", 0.2838], ["2023-11-24", 0.28], ["2023-11-25", 0.2838], ["2023-11-25", 0.2877], ["2023-11-25", 0.2731], ["2023-11-25", 0.2817], ["2023-11-25", 0.2834], ["2023-11-26", 0.2769], ["2023-11-26", 0.2769], ["2023-11-26", 0.2794], ["2023-11-27", 0.2839], ["2023-11-27", 0.2816], ["2023-11-27", 0.2881], ["2023-11-27", 0.2911], ["2023-11-27", 0.2839], ["2023-11-28", 0.2839], ["2023-11-28", 0.2853], ["2023-11-28", 0.2892], ["2023-11-28", 0.289], ["2023-11-28", 0.3008], ["2023-11-29", 0.3049], ["2023-11-29", 0.3005], ["2023-11-29", 0.3105], ["2023-11-29", 0.3113], ["2023-11-29", 0.3133], ["2023-11-29", 0.3129], ["2023-11-30", 0.3056], ["2023-12-02", 0.2898], ["2023-12-02", 0.2883], ["2023-12-03", 0.298], ["2023-12-06", 0.291], ["2023-12-07", 0.2871], ["2023-12-07", 0.2871], ["2023-12-07", 0.2871], ["2023-12-08", 0.2862], ["2023-12-10", 0.2864], ["2023-12-12", 0.2864], ["2023-12-12", 0.2826], ["2023-12-13", 0.2831], ["2023-12-13", 0.2712], ["2023-12-13", 0.2712], ["2023-12-14", 0.2712], ["2023-12-15", 0.2771], ["2023-12-15", 0.2823], ["2023-12-15", 0.2823], ["2023-12-15", 0.2814], ["2023-12-17", 0.2814], ["2023-12-17", 0.2826], ["2023-12-17", 0.2756], ["2023-12-17", 0.2802], ["2023-12-17", 0.2784], ["2023-12-18", 0.275], ["2023-12-18", 0.2739], ["2023-12-19", 0.2739], ["2023-12-20", 0.265], ["2023-12-20", 0.2661], ["2023-12-21", 0.2622], ["2023-12-21", 0.2533], ["2023-12-21", 0.2389], ["2023-12-22", 0.2382], ["2023-12-23", 0.246], ["2023-12-23", 0.2453], ["2023-12-23", 0.2453], ["2023-12-25", 0.2449], ["2023-12-25", 0.2409], ["2023-12-26", 0.2422], ["2023-12-26", 0.2378], ["2023-12-26", 0.2283], ["2023-12-27", 0.228], ["2023-12-27", 0.2253], ["2023-12-27", 0.2232], ["2023-12-27", 0.2215], ["2023-12-28", 0.2179], ["2023-12-28", 0.2175], ["2023-12-28", 0.2098], ["2023-12-29", 0.2044], ["2023-12-30", 0.2012], ["2023-12-31", 0.2012], ["2023-12-31", 0.2035], ["2023-12-31", 0.2239], ["2023-12-31", 0.2194], ["2024-01-01", 0.219], ["2024-01-01", 0.211], ["2024-01-01", 0.207], ["2024-01-02", 0.2088], ["2024-01-02", 0.2018], ["2024-01-02", 0.1955], ["2024-01-03", 0.1917], ["2024-01-04", 0.1917], ["2024-01-04", 0.1892], ["2024-01-04", 0.1888], ["2024-01-04", 0.1888], ["2024-01-05", 0.1925], ["2024-01-05", 0.1921], ["2024-01-06", 0.1915], ["2024-01-06", 0.1871], ["2024-01-06", 0.1862], ["2024-01-07", 0.1864], ["2024-01-08", 0.1862], ["2024-01-08", 0.1862], ["2024-01-08", 0.1836], ["2024-01-09", 0.183], ["2024-01-10", 0.1849], ["2024-01-10", 0.1825], ["2024-01-10", 0.1825], ["2024-01-11", 0.1828], ["2024-01-11", 0.1751], ["2024-01-11", 0.1751], ["2024-01-11", 0.1657], ["2024-01-11", 0.1663], ["2024-01-11", 0.1654], ["2024-01-12", 0.1648], ["2024-01-12", 0.1633], ["2024-01-12", 0.1504], ["2024-01-12", 0.1504]] | ["https://www.timesofisrael.com/basic-framework-in-place-for-israel-saudi-normalization-us-says/", "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67922238", "https://x.com/ConflictTR/status/1710612588696891603?s=20", "https://new.thecradle.co/articles/saudi-israel-normalization-positive-for-region-erdogan", "https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/2023-09-20/ty-article/saudi-crown-prince-says-getting-closer-to-israel-normalization/0000018a-b40e-d6d1-addb-f42fec150000", "https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-10-13/ty-article/.premium/saudi-arabia-freezes-normalization-talks-with-israel-amid-ongoing-war-with-hamas/0000018b-2a0b-d1bc-a58b-6baf83c20000", "https://www.axios.com/2023/08/25/israel-saudi-normalization-megadeal-concessions-palestinians", "https://www.axios.com/2023/03/16/democrats-sympathize-more-palestinians-israelis-gallup", "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-crown-prince-says-getting-closer-israel-normalization-fox-interview-2023-09-20/", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/anafaguy/2023/09/19/us-considering-defense-treaty-with-saudi-arabia-that-includes-israel-normalization-report-says/", "https://www.samaa.tv/208732363-saudi-arabia-ends-talks-on-normalization-with-israel-amid-hamas-israel-war", "https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2023-10/krieg-nahost-saudi-arabien-normalisierung-israel-gespraechsstopp?utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecosia.org%2F", "https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2023-10/krieg-nahost-saudi-arabien-normalisierung-israel-gespraechsstopp", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KhrBQtnuDII", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/saudis-said-to-tell-us-they-are-halting-normalization-talks-with-israel/", "https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/saudi-arabia-offers-aid-palestine-authority-bid-israel-normalisation-report", "https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-eyes-chinese-bid-for-nuclear-plant-e4a56f", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-55266089", "https://www.voanews.com/a/saudi-israel-normalization-not-so-imminent-says-white-house-/7238990.html", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/saudi-crown-prince-tells-biden-israel-normalization-can-resume-after-war/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/11/08/israel-war-news-hamas-gaza-palestine/https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/11/08/israel-war-news-hamas-gaza-palestine/", "https://news.yahoo.com/netanyahu-says-bet-israel-deepening-033001028.html", "https://www.ft.com/content/a6e2c8e9-1287-4f09-9f94-e3eba3f4ae84", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/saudi-crown-prince-indicates-israel-normalization-can-resume-after-war-white-house/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/biden-netanyahu-discuss-saudi-normalization-iran-2023-09-20/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3163 |
<p>As fighting in Gaza continues, Israel remains concerned about a potential second front opening to the north by Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon (<a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-12-10/lebanons-hezbollah-fires-drones-israel-mounts-air-strikes" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/12/israel-braces-possible-hezbollah-attack-lebanese-border-heats" target="_blank">Al-Monitor</a>, <a href="https://www.jewishpress.com/news/middle-east/lebanon/war-cabinet-minister-benny-gantz-warns-us-that-israel-must-end-hezbollah-threat/2023/12/11/" target="_blank">Jewish Press</a>). For the purposes of this question, the IDF will be deemed to have invaded Lebanon if its forces, including ten or more tanks and/or armored vehicles, cross the "Blue Line" into Lebanon and remain in Lebanon for more than 36 hours (<a href="https://unifil.unmissions.org/unifil-maps" target="_blank">UN Interim Force in Lebanon</a>, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/technology/armoured-vehicle" target="_blank">Britannica - Armoured Vehicle</a>). Whether the IDF has invaded Lebanon will be determined using credible open-source media reporting. The question will close retroactively as of the beginning of the IDF invasion of Lebanon.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>
| None | Will the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) invade Lebanon with tanks and/or armored vehicles before 15 March 2024? | 2023-12-14 | [["2023-12-15", 0.05], ["2023-12-15", 0.15], ["2023-12-15", 0.1], ["2023-12-15", 0.4], ["2023-12-15", 0.3125], ["2023-12-15", 0.25], ["2023-12-15", 0.21], ["2023-12-15", 0.1871], ["2023-12-15", 0.1638], ["2023-12-16", 0.1511], ["2023-12-16", 0.236], ["2023-12-16", 0.2764], ["2023-12-16", 0.2558], ["2023-12-16", 0.2362], ["2023-12-16", 0.2279], ["2023-12-16", 0.2127], ["2023-12-16", 0.2013], ["2023-12-16", 0.2006], ["2023-12-16", 0.1912], ["2023-12-16", 0.1861], ["2023-12-16", 0.1842], ["2023-12-16", 0.18], ["2023-12-16", 0.1738], ["2023-12-16", 0.1733], ["2023-12-16", 0.1836], ["2023-12-17", 0.18], ["2023-12-17", 0.1813], ["2023-12-17", 0.1888], ["2023-12-17", 0.188], ["2023-12-17", 0.1919], ["2023-12-17", 0.2074], ["2023-12-17", 0.2071], ["2023-12-17", 0.2172], ["2023-12-17", 0.2162], ["2023-12-17", 0.21], ["2023-12-17", 0.2139], ["2023-12-17", 0.2123], ["2023-12-17", 0.2131], ["2023-12-18", 0.2294], ["2023-12-18", 0.2285], ["2023-12-18", 0.2226], ["2023-12-18", 0.2192], ["2023-12-18", 0.2338], ["2023-12-18", 0.2408], ["2023-12-18", 0.2385], ["2023-12-18", 0.24], ["2023-12-18", 0.24], ["2023-12-18", 0.2561], ["2023-12-18", 0.2563], ["2023-12-18", 0.2548], ["2023-12-18", 0.2491], ["2023-12-18", 0.2373], ["2023-12-18", 0.2331], ["2023-12-18", 0.2505], ["2023-12-18", 0.2518], ["2023-12-18", 0.25], ["2023-12-18", 0.2539], ["2023-12-19", 0.2526], ["2023-12-19", 0.2544], ["2023-12-19", 0.2579], ["2023-12-19", 0.2544], ["2023-12-19", 0.26], ["2023-12-20", 0.2725], ["2023-12-20", 0.2788], ["2023-12-20", 0.283], ["2023-12-20", 0.2782], ["2023-12-20", 0.2584], ["2023-12-20", 0.2684], ["2023-12-20", 0.2648], ["2023-12-20", 0.2571], ["2023-12-20", 0.2624], ["2023-12-20", 0.2606], ["2023-12-20", 0.265], ["2023-12-20", 0.2574], ["2023-12-20", 0.2503], ["2023-12-20", 0.2476], ["2023-12-20", 0.2555], ["2023-12-20", 0.2558], ["2023-12-21", 0.2546], ["2023-12-21", 0.2633], ["2023-12-21", 0.2605], ["2023-12-21", 0.2614], ["2023-12-21", 0.2553], ["2023-12-21", 0.2495], ["2023-12-21", 0.244], ["2023-12-21", 0.2317], ["2023-12-21", 0.231], ["2023-12-21", 0.2248], ["2023-12-21", 0.2242], ["2023-12-21", 0.1937], ["2023-12-21", 0.1951], ["2023-12-21", 0.1917], ["2023-12-21", 0.2017], ["2023-12-21", 0.2026], ["2023-12-21", 0.2058], ["2023-12-22", 0.1989], ["2023-12-22", 0.1976], ["2023-12-22", 0.1949], ["2023-12-22", 0.2055], ["2023-12-22", 0.2157], ["2023-12-22", 0.2153], ["2023-12-22", 0.2167], ["2023-12-22", 0.2118], ["2023-12-23", 0.2156], ["2023-12-23", 0.2135], ["2023-12-23", 0.2087], ["2023-12-24", 0.2063], ["2023-12-24", 0.2089], ["2023-12-24", 0.2097], ["2023-12-26", 0.2072], ["2023-12-26", 0.2072], ["2023-12-26", 0.2053], ["2023-12-26", 0.2067], ["2023-12-26", 0.2081], ["2023-12-26", 0.2136], ["2023-12-26", 0.2168], ["2023-12-26", 0.2157], ["2023-12-26", 0.2157], ["2023-12-26", 0.2363], ["2023-12-27", 0.2297], ["2023-12-27", 0.2258], ["2023-12-27", 0.2253], ["2023-12-27", 0.2266], ["2023-12-27", 0.2238], ["2023-12-27", 0.2264], ["2023-12-27", 0.2277], ["2023-12-27", 0.2265], ["2023-12-27", 0.2203], ["2023-12-28", 0.2203], ["2023-12-28", 0.2328], ["2023-12-28", 0.2453], ["2023-12-28", 0.2429], ["2023-12-28", 0.2478], ["2023-12-28", 0.2356], ["2023-12-28", 0.2371], ["2023-12-28", 0.2395], ["2023-12-29", 0.2419], ["2023-12-29", 0.2429], ["2023-12-29", 0.2431], ["2023-12-30", 0.2431], ["2023-12-30", 0.249], ["2023-12-30", 0.2479], ["2023-12-30", 0.2516], ["2023-12-31", 0.247], ["2023-12-31", 0.2377], ["2023-12-31", 0.2395], ["2023-12-31", 0.25], ["2023-12-31", 0.2716], ["2024-01-01", 0.2632], ["2024-01-01", 0.2725], ["2024-01-01", 0.2713], ["2024-01-01", 0.2647], ["2024-01-01", 0.2831], ["2024-01-01", 0.2831], ["2024-01-02", 0.29], ["2024-01-02", 0.2776], ["2024-01-02", 0.2743], ["2024-01-02", 0.2717], ["2024-01-02", 0.2709], ["2024-01-02", 0.2838], ["2024-01-02", 0.2847], ["2024-01-02", 0.2889], ["2024-01-02", 0.2938], ["2024-01-02", 0.291], ["2024-01-02", 0.2946], ["2024-01-02", 0.2904], ["2024-01-02", 0.2925], ["2024-01-02", 0.2942], ["2024-01-02", 0.2938], ["2024-01-02", 0.2979], ["2024-01-02", 0.2979], ["2024-01-02", 0.3146], ["2024-01-03", 0.3173], ["2024-01-03", 0.3179], ["2024-01-03", 0.319], ["2024-01-03", 0.315], ["2024-01-03", 0.3154], ["2024-01-03", 0.3165], ["2024-01-03", 0.31], ["2024-01-03", 0.2896], ["2024-01-03", 0.2876], ["2024-01-03", 0.2894], ["2024-01-03", 0.2914], ["2024-01-03", 0.2914], ["2024-01-03", 0.2866], ["2024-01-03", 0.2866], ["2024-01-03", 0.2886], ["2024-01-03", 0.292], ["2024-01-03", 0.2924], ["2024-01-04", 0.2924], ["2024-01-04", 0.3], ["2024-01-04", 0.3], ["2024-01-04", 0.3059], ["2024-01-04", 0.3186], ["2024-01-04", 0.3175], ["2024-01-04", 0.3214], ["2024-01-04", 0.3202], ["2024-01-04", 0.3133], ["2024-01-04", 0.3133], ["2024-01-04", 0.3082], ["2024-01-04", 0.3075], ["2024-01-04", 0.3085], ["2024-01-04", 0.31], ["2024-01-04", 0.3071], ["2024-01-04", 0.3023], ["2024-01-05", 0.3008], ["2024-01-05", 0.3002], ["2024-01-05", 0.3002], ["2024-01-05", 0.3002], ["2024-01-05", 0.3021], ["2024-01-05", 0.2983], ["2024-01-06", 0.2983], ["2024-01-06", 0.2983], ["2024-01-06", 0.2987], ["2024-01-06", 0.3053], ["2024-01-07", 0.3058], ["2024-01-07", 0.3048], ["2024-01-07", 0.3054], ["2024-01-07", 0.3065], ["2024-01-07", 0.3061], ["2024-01-07", 0.3098], ["2024-01-07", 0.3078], ["2024-01-07", 0.3078], ["2024-01-08", 0.3085], ["2024-01-08", 0.3076], ["2024-01-08", 0.308], ["2024-01-08", 0.3081], ["2024-01-08", 0.3089], ["2024-01-08", 0.3081], ["2024-01-08", 0.3072], ["2024-01-09", 0.3109], ["2024-01-09", 0.3054], ["2024-01-09", 0.3024], ["2024-01-09", 0.286], ["2024-01-09", 0.2869], ["2024-01-09", 0.2871], ["2024-01-09", 0.288], ["2024-01-10", 0.2875], ["2024-01-10", 0.2838], ["2024-01-10", 0.2811], ["2024-01-10", 0.2834], ["2024-01-11", 0.2807], ["2024-01-12", 0.2818], ["2024-01-12", 0.2854], ["2024-01-12", 0.2855], ["2024-01-12", 0.2829], ["2024-01-12", 0.2841], ["2024-01-12", 0.2809], ["2024-01-12", 0.2839], ["2024-01-12", 0.2839]] | ["https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/how-biden-averted-a-second-front-by-convincing-israel-not-to-attack-hezbollah-on-oct-11/ar-AA1lWTld", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-said-set-to-pull-one-of-its-aircraft-carriers-away-from-the-middle-east/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982_Lebanon_War", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968_Israeli_raid_on_Lebanon", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Hiram", "https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-01-05/ty-article/.premium/israeli-governments-promises-in-north-could-leave-military-force-as-the-only-option/0000018c-d60e-ddba-abad-d6af72280000?utm_source=mailchimp&utm_medium=Content&utm_campaign=weekend&utm_content=290ce09956", "https://carnegieendowment.org/events/carnegieconnects", "https://quillette.com/2023/12/16/israels-grim-future-attrition-on-all-fronts/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2006_Lebanon_War", "https://www.reuters.com/pictures/pictures-israeli-forces-deploy-lebanon-border-amid-fears-expanding-conflict-2023-10-09/", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/2/top-hamas-official-saleh-al-arouri-killed-in-beirut-suburb", "https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20240103-retaliate-or-not-hezbollah-s-conundrum-after-israel-kills-hamas-deputy-in-lebanon", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_Israel?wprov=sfla1", "https://m.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-779966", "https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-17-2023", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/evacuees-ask-biden-to-back-israeli-military-op-if-lebanon-doesnt-rein-in-hezbollah/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-war-spreads-beirut-with-killing-hamas-deputy-leader-2024-01-02/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/01/07/israel-hezbollah-lebanon-blinken/", "https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/12/18/hamas-is-now-recruiting-in-lebanon-what-will-that-mean-for-hezbollah", "https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-780780", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Grapes_of_Wrath", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/27/israel-air-raid-kills-hezbollah-fighter-and-two-relatives-in-south-lebanon", "https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1743532487366639816?t=xeOypxby0C1bSHZh4krI3Q&s=19", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Interim_Force_in_Lebanon", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67831478"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3159 | <p>On 5 December 2023, Moody's Investor Service (Moody's) changed its ratings outlook for China to negative, citing surging local government debt and a deepening property crisis (<a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/moody-s-cuts-china-credit-outlook-citing-lower-growth-property-risks/7384771.html" target="_blank">Voice of America</a>, <a href="https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-affirms-Chinas-A1-rating-changes-outlook-to-negative-from-Rating-Action--PR_481753" target="_blank">Moody's</a>, <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/creditrating.asp#toc-credit-ratings-scale" target="_blank">Investopedia - Credit Ratings Scale</a>, <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/china/rating" target="_blank">Trading Economics</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Will Moody's downgrade its long-term credit rating for China before 7 December 2024? | 2023-12-08 | [["2023-12-08", 1.0], ["2023-12-08", 0.525], ["2023-12-08", 0.3833], ["2023-12-08", 0.34], ["2023-12-08", 0.292], ["2023-12-08", 0.4083], ["2023-12-09", 0.35], ["2023-12-09", 0.3413], ["2023-12-09", 0.3311], ["2023-12-09", 0.348], ["2023-12-09", 0.3618], ["2023-12-09", 0.3609], ["2023-12-09", 0.3725], ["2023-12-09", 0.35], ["2023-12-10", 0.3429], ["2023-12-10", 0.3627], ["2023-12-10", 0.3613], ["2023-12-10", 0.3488], ["2023-12-10", 0.3459], ["2023-12-10", 0.3822], ["2023-12-11", 0.41], ["2023-12-11", 0.3995], ["2023-12-11", 0.3925], ["2023-12-11", 0.401], ["2023-12-11", 0.401], ["2023-12-11", 0.4009], ["2023-12-11", 0.4096], ["2023-12-11", 0.4087], ["2023-12-11", 0.4283], ["2023-12-11", 0.4439], ["2023-12-11", 0.4504], ["2023-12-11", 0.4955], ["2023-12-12", 0.5486], ["2023-12-12", 0.5721], ["2023-12-12", 0.5747], ["2023-12-13", 0.5911], ["2023-12-13", 0.5994], ["2023-12-13", 0.6205], ["2023-12-13", 0.6278], ["2023-12-13", 0.6289], ["2023-12-14", 0.6425], ["2023-12-14", 0.6714], ["2023-12-14", 0.6329], ["2023-12-14", 0.6436], ["2023-12-15", 0.6227], ["2023-12-15", 0.5773], ["2023-12-15", 0.594], ["2023-12-15", 0.57], ["2023-12-16", 0.5763], ["2023-12-16", 0.5713], ["2023-12-16", 0.5494], ["2023-12-17", 0.5181], ["2023-12-17", 0.5271], ["2023-12-17", 0.5271], ["2023-12-17", 0.5235], ["2023-12-18", 0.5182], ["2023-12-18", 0.5018], ["2023-12-20", 0.5171], ["2023-12-20", 0.5153], ["2023-12-22", 0.5006], ["2023-12-22", 0.5017], ["2023-12-24", 0.4933], ["2023-12-26", 0.4683], ["2023-12-27", 0.4667], ["2023-12-27", 0.4611], ["2023-12-31", 0.4578], ["2023-12-31", 0.4556], ["2024-01-01", 0.46], ["2024-01-04", 0.48], ["2024-01-04", 0.4863], ["2024-01-05", 0.4853], ["2024-01-05", 0.4663], ["2024-01-06", 0.4737], ["2024-01-07", 0.4832], ["2024-01-10", 0.4837], ["2024-01-12", 0.4795], ["2024-01-12", 0.4795]] | ["https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/07/economy/china-shadow-banking-debt-woes-intl-hnk/index.html", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/12/05/china-shadow-banking-zhongzhi-insolvent-economy/", "https://tradingeconomics.com/china/rating"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3207 | <p>The 2024 US presidential election cycle brings the potential for major third-party and/or independent candidates (<a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/2024-wild-card-banner-year-third-party-candidates-rcna129937" target="_blank">NBC News</a>, <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/01/09/cornel-west-rfk-jr-third-party-candidates-2024/72077635007/" target="_blank">USA Today</a>). The winner of the most votes in a jurisdiction will be considered to have won the electoral votes for that jurisdiction, and whether there are any "faithless electors" as part of the Electoral College in the 2024 presidential election is immaterial (<a href="https://ballotpedia.org/What_are_faithless_electors_in_the_Electoral_College%3F_(2020)" target="_blank">Ballotpedia</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Will a US presidential candidate other than the Democratic Party and Republican Party nominees win any electoral votes in the 2024 presidential election? | 2024-01-11 | [["2024-01-12", 0.0], ["2024-01-12", 0.005], ["2024-01-12", 0.0033], ["2024-01-12", 0.0025], ["2024-01-12", 0.002], ["2024-01-12", 0.165], ["2024-01-12", 0.1429], ["2024-01-12", 0.125], ["2024-01-12", 0.1133], ["2024-01-12", 0.1122], ["2024-01-12", 0.103], ["2024-01-12", 0.0945], ["2024-01-12", 0.0875], ["2024-01-12", 0.0892], ["2024-01-12", 0.0843], ["2024-01-12", 0.0793], ["2024-01-12", 0.0744], ["2024-01-13", 0.0738], ["2024-01-13", 0.0753], ["2024-01-13", 0.0756], ["2024-01-13", 0.0716], ["2024-01-13", 0.083], ["2024-01-13", 0.0838], ["2024-01-13", 0.0838]] | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3078 |
<p>Protests, some violent, have broken out at US diplomatic facilities since an explosion at a hospital in the Gaza Strip that Hamas claims was perpetrated by Israel, a claim Israel denies (<a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/demonstrators-in-lebanon-protesting-gaza-hospital-blast-clash-with-security-forces-near-u-s-embassy" target="_blank">PBS</a>, <a href="https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/us-closes-adana-consulate-amid-gaza-protests-187183" target="_blank">Hurriyet Daily News</a>, <a href="https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories/worldwide-caution.html" target="_blank">US Department of State</a>). For the purposes of this question, "US personnel" include diplomatic staff, Marine Security Guards, and other US government personnel. A fatality must be among US personnel to count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 23 October 2023</span>: For the purposes of this question, "US diplomatic facility" means the "premises of the mission" as governed by the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations (e.g., embassies) or the "consular premises" as governed by the Vienna Convention on Consular Relations (e.g., consular offices) (<a href="https://legal.un.org/ilc/texts/instruments/english/conventions/9_1_1961.pdf" target="_blank">UN - Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations</a>, <a href="https://legal.un.org/ilc/texts/instruments/english/conventions/9_2_1963.pdf" target="_blank">UN - Vienna Convention on Consular Relations</a>). An attack must occur at a diplomatic facility to count, but the fatality need not necessarily occur at that same facility.</p>
| None | Will an attack on a US diplomatic facility outside of the US result in either a fatality or the capture of one or more US personnel at the facility before 20 April 2024? | 2023-10-20 | [["2023-10-20", 0.26], ["2023-10-20", 0.43], ["2023-10-20", 0.29], ["2023-10-20", 0.4425], ["2023-10-20", 0.424], ["2023-10-20", 0.3717], ["2023-10-20", 0.3733], ["2023-10-20", 0.375], ["2023-10-20", 0.4629], ["2023-10-21", 0.4738], ["2023-10-21", 0.4378], ["2023-10-21", 0.408], ["2023-10-21", 0.4609], ["2023-10-21", 0.46], ["2023-10-21", 0.4254], ["2023-10-21", 0.3986], ["2023-10-21", 0.3979], ["2023-10-21", 0.3971], ["2023-10-21", 0.372], ["2023-10-21", 0.38], ["2023-10-21", 0.3793], ["2023-10-21", 0.3706], ["2023-10-21", 0.4076], ["2023-10-21", 0.4006], ["2023-10-22", 0.3858], ["2023-10-22", 0.3853], ["2023-10-22", 0.375], ["2023-10-22", 0.3571], ["2023-10-22", 0.35], ["2023-10-22", 0.3495], ["2023-10-22", 0.3359], ["2023-10-22", 0.3432], ["2023-10-22", 0.3478], ["2023-10-22", 0.347], ["2023-10-22", 0.335], ["2023-10-22", 0.3296], ["2023-10-22", 0.3276], ["2023-10-23", 0.3272], ["2023-10-23", 0.3262], ["2023-10-23", 0.3219], ["2023-10-23", 0.3208], ["2023-10-23", 0.3144], ["2023-10-23", 0.3144], ["2023-10-23", 0.3141], ["2023-10-23", 0.3046], ["2023-10-23", 0.3039], ["2023-10-23", 0.3036], ["2023-10-23", 0.2942], ["2023-10-23", 0.2907], ["2023-10-23", 0.2882], ["2023-10-23", 0.2955], ["2023-10-23", 0.2931], ["2023-10-23", 0.2917], ["2023-10-24", 0.2828], ["2023-10-24", 0.2767], ["2023-10-24", 0.26], ["2023-10-24", 0.2429], ["2023-10-25", 0.259], ["2023-10-25", 0.261], ["2023-10-25", 0.2662], ["2023-10-25", 0.2674], ["2023-10-26", 0.265], ["2023-10-26", 0.2672], ["2023-10-26", 0.2582], ["2023-10-26", 0.2619], ["2023-10-26", 0.2494], ["2023-10-27", 0.2019], ["2023-10-27", 0.2], ["2023-10-27", 0.2465], ["2023-10-27", 0.2641], ["2023-10-27", 0.2876], ["2023-10-27", 0.28], ["2023-10-28", 0.2789], ["2023-10-28", 0.2872], ["2023-10-28", 0.2894], ["2023-10-28", 0.2878], ["2023-10-29", 0.2878], ["2023-10-30", 0.2861], ["2023-10-31", 0.285], ["2023-10-31", 0.2739], ["2023-10-31", 0.2621], ["2023-10-31", 0.2332], ["2023-11-01", 0.2211], ["2023-11-01", 0.2163], ["2023-11-01", 0.2495], ["2023-11-01", 0.247], ["2023-11-01", 0.2625], ["2023-11-01", 0.2715], ["2023-11-02", 0.269], ["2023-11-02", 0.2905], ["2023-11-02", 0.2919], ["2023-11-02", 0.28], ["2023-11-02", 0.24], ["2023-11-03", 0.2314], ["2023-11-03", 0.2068], ["2023-11-03", 0.2009], ["2023-11-03", 0.1964], ["2023-11-03", 0.2318], ["2023-11-04", 0.2327], ["2023-11-04", 0.2295], ["2023-11-04", 0.2286], ["2023-11-05", 0.225], ["2023-11-05", 0.2209], ["2023-11-05", 0.2205], ["2023-11-06", 0.2168], ["2023-11-06", 0.2227], ["2023-11-07", 0.2277], ["2023-11-07", 0.2441], ["2023-11-07", 0.2595], ["2023-11-08", 0.2459], ["2023-11-08", 0.2395], ["2023-11-09", 0.2326], ["2023-11-09", 0.2343], ["2023-11-10", 0.2343], ["2023-11-10", 0.2387], ["2023-11-11", 0.2383], ["2023-11-11", 0.2374], ["2023-11-11", 0.2325], ["2023-11-11", 0.2263], ["2023-11-12", 0.2292], ["2023-11-12", 0.2217], ["2023-11-12", 0.2528], ["2023-11-14", 0.256], ["2023-11-14", 0.2812], ["2023-11-14", 0.2738], ["2023-11-15", 0.2485], ["2023-11-16", 0.2485], ["2023-11-17", 0.2504], ["2023-11-17", 0.2485], ["2023-11-17", 0.2492], ["2023-11-17", 0.2515], ["2023-11-17", 0.2585], ["2023-11-17", 0.2515], ["2023-11-18", 0.2508], ["2023-11-19", 0.2489], ["2023-11-19", 0.2293], ["2023-11-19", 0.2285], ["2023-11-19", 0.2556], ["2023-11-20", 0.2633], ["2023-11-20", 0.2633], ["2023-11-21", 0.2548], ["2023-11-21", 0.2393], ["2023-11-21", 0.2263], ["2023-11-21", 0.2259], ["2023-11-22", 0.2259], ["2023-11-22", 0.2263], ["2023-11-22", 0.2256], ["2023-11-22", 0.227], ["2023-11-22", 0.2256], ["2023-11-23", 0.2256], ["2023-11-23", 0.2256], ["2023-11-23", 0.2252], ["2023-11-24", 0.2322], ["2023-11-24", 0.2419], ["2023-11-25", 0.2415], ["2023-11-25", 0.2411], ["2023-11-25", 0.2178], ["2023-11-26", 0.2296], ["2023-11-26", 0.2289], ["2023-11-27", 0.2314], ["2023-11-28", 0.2204], ["2023-11-28", 0.2204], ["2023-11-29", 0.2321], ["2023-11-29", 0.2304], ["2023-11-29", 0.2286], ["2023-11-30", 0.2286], ["2023-11-30", 0.2293], ["2023-11-30", 0.2518], ["2023-11-30", 0.2493], ["2023-12-01", 0.249], ["2023-12-03", 0.249], ["2023-12-03", 0.2479], ["2023-12-03", 0.2428], ["2023-12-04", 0.2448], ["2023-12-05", 0.2379], ["2023-12-05", 0.2376], ["2023-12-05", 0.2403], ["2023-12-06", 0.2414], ["2023-12-06", 0.249], ["2023-12-06", 0.2266], ["2023-12-07", 0.2255], ["2023-12-07", 0.2248], ["2023-12-07", 0.2248], ["2023-12-08", 0.2245], ["2023-12-09", 0.2241], ["2023-12-09", 0.2483], ["2023-12-10", 0.2503], ["2023-12-12", 0.2531], ["2023-12-12", 0.2531], ["2023-12-12", 0.2493], ["2023-12-12", 0.25], ["2023-12-12", 0.259], ["2023-12-13", 0.2562], ["2023-12-13", 0.2566], ["2023-12-13", 0.2513], ["2023-12-14", 0.2407], ["2023-12-14", 0.2403], ["2023-12-14", 0.24], ["2023-12-15", 0.2397], ["2023-12-15", 0.2357], ["2023-12-16", 0.2353], ["2023-12-16", 0.2343], ["2023-12-16", 0.2377], ["2023-12-17", 0.237], ["2023-12-18", 0.2373], ["2023-12-18", 0.2347], ["2023-12-18", 0.2307], ["2023-12-19", 0.2307], ["2023-12-19", 0.2307], ["2023-12-20", 0.224], ["2023-12-21", 0.2333], ["2023-12-21", 0.2167], ["2023-12-21", 0.2163], ["2023-12-22", 0.2137], ["2023-12-23", 0.183], ["2023-12-23", 0.183], ["2023-12-23", 0.1827], ["2023-12-23", 0.1837], ["2023-12-24", 0.184], ["2023-12-24", 0.1787], ["2023-12-25", 0.1803], ["2023-12-26", 0.1887], ["2023-12-26", 0.1887], ["2023-12-26", 0.1863], ["2023-12-26", 0.1863], ["2023-12-26", 0.2137], ["2023-12-27", 0.2153], ["2023-12-28", 0.2227], ["2023-12-29", 0.2233], ["2023-12-30", 0.223], ["2023-12-30", 0.223], ["2023-12-30", 0.224], ["2024-01-01", 0.2273], ["2024-01-01", 0.2267], ["2024-01-02", 0.2387], ["2024-01-02", 0.2384], ["2024-01-02", 0.2384], ["2024-01-02", 0.2384], ["2024-01-03", 0.2384], ["2024-01-03", 0.2397], ["2024-01-04", 0.2397], ["2024-01-04", 0.2397], ["2024-01-05", 0.24], ["2024-01-06", 0.2397], ["2024-01-06", 0.2348], ["2024-01-07", 0.2291], ["2024-01-08", 0.2291], ["2024-01-08", 0.2259], ["2024-01-08", 0.2256], ["2024-01-09", 0.2113], ["2024-01-10", 0.2113], ["2024-01-10", 0.21], ["2024-01-10", 0.2113], ["2024-01-11", 0.2113], ["2024-01-11", 0.2141], ["2024-01-11", 0.2141], ["2024-01-11", 0.2141], ["2024-01-11", 0.2141], ["2024-01-12", 0.2166], ["2024-01-12", 0.2113], ["2024-01-12", 0.2025], ["2024-01-12", 0.2041], ["2024-01-12", 0.2066], ["2024-01-12", 0.2128], ["2024-01-12", 0.2128]] | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attacks_on_U.S._diplomatic_facilities", "https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/brazil-police-foiled-terrorist-plot-arrested-suspects-104730911", "https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-8-2023", "https://m.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-781883", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_U.S._embassy_burning_in_Islamabad", "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-a", "https://edition.cnn.com/2023/11/09/politics/biden-diplomats-warn-middle-east-fury", "https://www.statology.org/binomial-distribution/", "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-airstrikes-iran-backed-targets-syria-at-least-8-fighters-dead/", "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/drone-attacks-american-bases-injured-two-dozen-us-military-personnel-rcna121961"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3198 | <p>For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, "terrorism" is as defined by EU law (<a href="https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/fight-against-terrorism/" target="_blank">European Council</a>, see "EU definition of terrorism"). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack. Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to count. "Continental Europe" includes the territory on the continent of any country that is part of the European single market, as well as Andorra, Monaco, San Marino, and Vatican City (<a href="https://www.gov.uk/eu-eea" target="_blank">Gov.uk - Countries in the EU and EEA</a>, does not include UK). The hijacking or bombing of an aircraft would count if the aircraft last took flight from continental Europe or fatalities occur within the territory or airspace of a continental European country, and an attack in the territorial waters of a continental European country would count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in continental Europe resulting in at least five fatalities before 1 January 2025? | 2024-01-04 | [["2024-01-05", 0.67], ["2024-01-05", 0.585], ["2024-01-05", 0.7233], ["2024-01-05", 0.655], ["2024-01-05", 0.686], ["2024-01-05", 0.7383], ["2024-01-05", 0.7471], ["2024-01-05", 0.69], ["2024-01-06", 0.6867], ["2024-01-06", 0.654], ["2024-01-06", 0.663], ["2024-01-06", 0.6709], ["2024-01-06", 0.64], ["2024-01-06", 0.5985], ["2024-01-06", 0.5686], ["2024-01-06", 0.554], ["2024-01-06", 0.5644], ["2024-01-06", 0.5665], ["2024-01-06", 0.5772], ["2024-01-06", 0.5942], ["2024-01-06", 0.5937], ["2024-01-06", 0.6065], ["2024-01-06", 0.5819], ["2024-01-06", 0.5909], ["2024-01-06", 0.5896], ["2024-01-06", 0.5713], ["2024-01-06", 0.5604], ["2024-01-06", 0.5644], ["2024-01-06", 0.5658], ["2024-01-06", 0.5596], ["2024-01-07", 0.5396], ["2024-01-07", 0.5441], ["2024-01-07", 0.5477], ["2024-01-07", 0.5473], ["2024-01-07", 0.5523], ["2024-01-07", 0.5391], ["2024-01-07", 0.5379], ["2024-01-07", 0.5247], ["2024-01-07", 0.5326], ["2024-01-08", 0.5322], ["2024-01-08", 0.5195], ["2024-01-08", 0.5147], ["2024-01-08", 0.5132], ["2024-01-09", 0.4793], ["2024-01-09", 0.4683], ["2024-01-09", 0.4703], ["2024-01-09", 0.4777], ["2024-01-09", 0.4629], ["2024-01-09", 0.4863], ["2024-01-10", 0.48], ["2024-01-10", 0.5022], ["2024-01-10", 0.5094], ["2024-01-10", 0.5205], ["2024-01-11", 0.5189], ["2024-01-11", 0.5211], ["2024-01-11", 0.5079], ["2024-01-12", 0.5065], ["2024-01-12", 0.5325], ["2024-01-12", 0.5405], ["2024-01-12", 0.5252], ["2024-01-12", 0.5452], ["2024-01-12", 0.549], ["2024-01-12", 0.549]] | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terrorism_in_Europe", "https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9d/Terrorism-in-Western-Europe.png", "https://www.europol.europa.eu/cms/sites/default/files/documents/European%20Union%20Terrorism%20Situation%20and%20Trend%20report%202023.pdf", "https://www.europol.europa.eu/crime-areas/terrorism", "https://www.statista.com/statistics/1178596/number-of-fatalities-from-terrorism-eu/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3158 | <p>The ruling military government of Myanmar, which came to power in a coup in February 2021 led by current Prime Minister Min Aung Hlaing, has faced increased fighting with armed opposition groups around the country (<a href="https://www.economist.com/asia/2023/11/16/myanmars-junta-suffers-startling-defeats" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/28/asia/myanmar-nationwide-offensive-junta-intl-hnk/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/myanmar-military-losing-ground-coordinated-attacks-rcna127547" target="_blank">NBC News</a>, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/head-of-government" target="_blank">Britannica - Head of Government</a>). If Min Aung Hlaing flees Myanmar, he will be deemed to have ceased to be the head of government, and whether he has fled Myanmar will be determined using credible open source reporting.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Will Min Aung Hlaing cease to be the head of government of Myanmar before 1 September 2024? | 2023-12-08 | [["2023-12-08", 0.53], ["2023-12-08", 0.515], ["2023-12-08", 0.6533], ["2023-12-08", 0.7375], ["2023-12-09", 0.664], ["2023-12-09", 0.72], ["2023-12-09", 0.66], ["2023-12-09", 0.5838], ["2023-12-09", 0.5578], ["2023-12-09", 0.502], ["2023-12-09", 0.4836], ["2023-12-09", 0.4683], ["2023-12-09", 0.47], ["2023-12-10", 0.4631], ["2023-12-10", 0.4371], ["2023-12-10", 0.448], ["2023-12-10", 0.4594], ["2023-12-10", 0.4529], ["2023-12-10", 0.4439], ["2023-12-10", 0.4337], ["2023-12-10", 0.412], ["2023-12-11", 0.3924], ["2023-12-11", 0.3827], ["2023-12-11", 0.3661], ["2023-12-11", 0.3842], ["2023-12-11", 0.3633], ["2023-12-11", 0.3592], ["2023-12-11", 0.3554], ["2023-12-11", 0.35], ["2023-12-11", 0.3354], ["2023-12-11", 0.338], ["2023-12-11", 0.3369], ["2023-12-11", 0.3144], ["2023-12-11", 0.2868], ["2023-12-12", 0.2504], ["2023-12-12", 0.2517], ["2023-12-12", 0.2663], ["2023-12-12", 0.2663], ["2023-12-12", 0.2736], ["2023-12-12", 0.2843], ["2023-12-12", 0.2795], ["2023-12-12", 0.3109], ["2023-12-13", 0.3054], ["2023-12-13", 0.3042], ["2023-12-13", 0.316], ["2023-12-13", 0.295], ["2023-12-13", 0.3158], ["2023-12-14", 0.3326], ["2023-12-14", 0.3411], ["2023-12-14", 0.3306], ["2023-12-14", 0.3294], ["2023-12-14", 0.3147], ["2023-12-14", 0.3065], ["2023-12-15", 0.3406], ["2023-12-15", 0.335], ["2023-12-15", 0.3444], ["2023-12-15", 0.3111], ["2023-12-15", 0.3361], ["2023-12-16", 0.3184], ["2023-12-16", 0.3053], ["2023-12-16", 0.2975], ["2023-12-16", 0.2975], ["2023-12-16", 0.2575], ["2023-12-17", 0.2538], ["2023-12-17", 0.2924], ["2023-12-17", 0.2841], ["2023-12-17", 0.2818], ["2023-12-17", 0.2959], ["2023-12-17", 0.2923], ["2023-12-17", 0.2982], ["2023-12-17", 0.2978], ["2023-12-17", 0.2783], ["2023-12-17", 0.2979], ["2023-12-18", 0.2713], ["2023-12-18", 0.2954], ["2023-12-18", 0.2836], ["2023-12-18", 0.2924], ["2023-12-18", 0.3], ["2023-12-18", 0.2885], ["2023-12-18", 0.2962], ["2023-12-18", 0.3], ["2023-12-19", 0.3], ["2023-12-19", 0.2837], ["2023-12-19", 0.2825], ["2023-12-20", 0.2832], ["2023-12-20", 0.2904], ["2023-12-20", 0.2689], ["2023-12-20", 0.2796], ["2023-12-20", 0.2918], ["2023-12-20", 0.3076], ["2023-12-20", 0.309], ["2023-12-20", 0.3037], ["2023-12-20", 0.3103], ["2023-12-20", 0.3287], ["2023-12-21", 0.3406], ["2023-12-22", 0.3381], ["2023-12-22", 0.3306], ["2023-12-22", 0.2997], ["2023-12-23", 0.2963], ["2023-12-23", 0.2979], ["2023-12-23", 0.3018], ["2023-12-23", 0.2961], ["2023-12-23", 0.283], ["2023-12-24", 0.2835], ["2023-12-24", 0.2912], ["2023-12-24", 0.2971], ["2023-12-24", 0.2882], ["2023-12-24", 0.2857], ["2023-12-24", 0.3029], ["2023-12-25", 0.3097], ["2023-12-25", 0.3256], ["2023-12-25", 0.3044], ["2023-12-25", 0.2878], ["2023-12-25", 0.2892], ["2023-12-25", 0.2908], ["2023-12-25", 0.2951], ["2023-12-26", 0.2986], ["2023-12-26", 0.2947], ["2023-12-26", 0.3095], ["2023-12-26", 0.3108], ["2023-12-26", 0.3054], ["2023-12-26", 0.3118], ["2023-12-26", 0.3165], ["2023-12-26", 0.329], ["2023-12-26", 0.3223], ["2023-12-26", 0.3346], ["2023-12-26", 0.3405], ["2023-12-26", 0.3336], ["2023-12-26", 0.3348], ["2023-12-26", 0.3402], ["2023-12-27", 0.3372], ["2023-12-27", 0.3372], ["2023-12-27", 0.3295], ["2023-12-27", 0.3443], ["2023-12-27", 0.3445], ["2023-12-27", 0.3309], ["2023-12-27", 0.3311], ["2023-12-27", 0.335], ["2023-12-27", 0.3409], ["2023-12-27", 0.3531], ["2023-12-28", 0.3454], ["2023-12-28", 0.3435], ["2023-12-28", 0.3291], ["2023-12-28", 0.3226], ["2023-12-28", 0.3264], ["2023-12-29", 0.3264], ["2023-12-29", 0.3238], ["2023-12-29", 0.3238], ["2023-12-29", 0.3425], ["2023-12-30", 0.3457], ["2023-12-30", 0.3496], ["2023-12-30", 0.3466], ["2023-12-30", 0.3436], ["2023-12-30", 0.3382], ["2023-12-31", 0.3312], ["2023-12-31", 0.3433], ["2023-12-31", 0.3443], ["2023-12-31", 0.3537], ["2023-12-31", 0.3537], ["2023-12-31", 0.3623], ["2023-12-31", 0.3431], ["2023-12-31", 0.3508], ["2023-12-31", 0.3658], ["2023-12-31", 0.3675], ["2023-12-31", 0.3644], ["2023-12-31", 0.3589], ["2023-12-31", 0.3533], ["2024-01-01", 0.356], ["2024-01-01", 0.3589], ["2024-01-01", 0.365], ["2024-01-01", 0.3646], ["2024-01-01", 0.3771], ["2024-01-01", 0.3828], ["2024-01-01", 0.3819], ["2024-01-01", 0.3805], ["2024-01-01", 0.3745], ["2024-01-01", 0.3745], ["2024-01-01", 0.3771], ["2024-01-01", 0.3741], ["2024-01-02", 0.3868], ["2024-01-02", 0.38], ["2024-01-02", 0.3887], ["2024-01-02", 0.3887], ["2024-01-02", 0.3887], ["2024-01-02", 0.3856], ["2024-01-02", 0.3872], ["2024-01-02", 0.3915], ["2024-01-03", 0.3918], ["2024-01-03", 0.3918], ["2024-01-03", 0.3903], ["2024-01-03", 0.3863], ["2024-01-03", 0.3784], ["2024-01-03", 0.3748], ["2024-01-03", 0.3854], ["2024-01-03", 0.379], ["2024-01-03", 0.3806], ["2024-01-03", 0.3772], ["2024-01-04", 0.3806], ["2024-01-04", 0.3861], ["2024-01-04", 0.3861], ["2024-01-04", 0.3832], ["2024-01-04", 0.3763], ["2024-01-04", 0.3706], ["2024-01-05", 0.3712], ["2024-01-05", 0.3706], ["2024-01-05", 0.3652], ["2024-01-05", 0.3681], ["2024-01-05", 0.363], ["2024-01-05", 0.3639], ["2024-01-06", 0.3664], ["2024-01-06", 0.3685], ["2024-01-06", 0.3751], ["2024-01-06", 0.376], ["2024-01-06", 0.379], ["2024-01-06", 0.3665], ["2024-01-07", 0.3742], ["2024-01-07", 0.38], ["2024-01-07", 0.376], ["2024-01-07", 0.3759], ["2024-01-07", 0.3837], ["2024-01-07", 0.382], ["2024-01-07", 0.3907], ["2024-01-08", 0.3907], ["2024-01-08", 0.3936], ["2024-01-08", 0.3942], ["2024-01-08", 0.3926], ["2024-01-08", 0.4051], ["2024-01-08", 0.4051], ["2024-01-08", 0.4107], ["2024-01-08", 0.4044], ["2024-01-08", 0.4058], ["2024-01-08", 0.4003], ["2024-01-08", 0.4004], ["2024-01-09", 0.4023], ["2024-01-09", 0.4011], ["2024-01-09", 0.4065], ["2024-01-10", 0.4058], ["2024-01-10", 0.4061], ["2024-01-10", 0.4074], ["2024-01-10", 0.4114], ["2024-01-10", 0.4011], ["2024-01-10", 0.4018], ["2024-01-10", 0.3938], ["2024-01-11", 0.3924], ["2024-01-11", 0.3989], ["2024-01-11", 0.4083], ["2024-01-11", 0.4121], ["2024-01-11", 0.4118], ["2024-01-12", 0.4145], ["2024-01-13", 0.4112], ["2024-01-13", 0.4], ["2024-01-13", 0.4]] | ["https://asiatimes.com/2023/12/myanmars-battered-junta-in-extreme-legal-jeopardy/", "https://myanmar.iiss.org/updates/2023-11", "https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/myanmar-rebels-claim-control-of-key-town-near-chinese-border", "https://undispatch.com/the-military-junta-may-soon-be-defeated-in-myanmars-civil-war/", "https://news.sky.com/story/myanmars-civil-war-has-taken-dramatic-turn-and-never-has-the-ruling-military-looked-so-vulnerable-13030330", "https://myanmar.iiss.org/updates/2023-12", "https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2023/06/17/chinas-support-in-myanmar-driven-by-self-interest/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/eu-adds-minister-arms-suppliers-myanmar-sanctions-list-2023-12-11/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/myanmar-military-meets-rebel-groups-with-chinas-help-junta-spokesperson-2023-12-11/", "https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/shan-cities-captured-01082024050501.html", "https://news.un.org/en/tags/myanmar", "https://www.voanews.com/a/china-junta-armed-groups-agree-on-cease-fire-in-north-myanmar-/7398703.html", "https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/asean-special-envoy-meets-myanmar-junta-chief", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17509/civil-wars-end-in-these-countries/", "https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2023/12/11/myanmars-generals-face-new-threat-to-grip-on-power-as-gas-supplies-dwindle", "https://thediplomat.com/2023/12/myanmar-junta-chief-calls-on-resistance-groups-to-solve-problems-politically/", "https://apnews.com/article/kokang-laukkaing-laukkai-cyberscam-shan-state-6d5c00eb75d8b6f5aa257c3cdfa68970", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/20/tentative-truce-shows-extent-and-limit-of-chinas-influence-in-myanmar", "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/losing-ground-rebel-alliance-myanmar-junta-faces-biggest-test-since-coup-2023-11-10/", "https://manifold.markets/aok/will-myanmars-junta-be-overthrown-b", "https://manifold.markets/SorinTanaseNicola/will-the-myanmar-junta-relinquish-p"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3164 |
<p>Russia seized and annexed Crimea in 2014, but Ukraine still seeks to regain the territory as war continues in the country (<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/15/ukrainian-foothold-over-dnipro-at-kherson-as-zelenskiy-says-avdiivka-costly-to-russian-war-effort" target="_blank">Guardian</a>, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukraine-aims-major-drone-attack-crimea-russia-tries-capture-destroyed-rcna126629" target="_blank">NBC News</a>, <a href="https://www.hudson.org/foreign-policy/shortest-path-victory-ukraine-goes-through-crimea-luke-coffey-peter-rough" target="_blank">Hudson Institute</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (<a href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375" target="_blank">ISW</a>, labeled "The Autonomous Republic of Crimea").</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>
| None | Will any territory in Crimea that was Russian-controlled before 24 February 2022 cease to be under "Assessed Russian Control" before 15 August 2024, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)? | 2023-12-14 | [["2023-12-15", 0.0], ["2023-12-15", 0.015], ["2023-12-15", 0.01], ["2023-12-15", 0.0075], ["2023-12-15", 0.008], ["2023-12-15", 0.0083], ["2023-12-15", 0.0067], ["2023-12-15", 0.0129], ["2023-12-15", 0.0175], ["2023-12-15", 0.0167], ["2023-12-15", 0.018], ["2023-12-16", 0.0173], ["2023-12-16", 0.0158], ["2023-12-16", 0.0146], ["2023-12-16", 0.0136], ["2023-12-16", 0.0133], ["2023-12-16", 0.0125], ["2023-12-16", 0.0124], ["2023-12-16", 0.0117], ["2023-12-16", 0.0147], ["2023-12-16", 0.014], ["2023-12-16", 0.0152], ["2023-12-16", 0.0168], ["2023-12-16", 0.0204], ["2023-12-16", 0.0279], ["2023-12-16", 0.0276], ["2023-12-17", 0.0272], ["2023-12-17", 0.0454], ["2023-12-17", 0.0448], ["2023-12-17", 0.0432], ["2023-12-17", 0.0624], ["2023-12-17", 0.0441], ["2023-12-17", 0.0493], ["2023-12-18", 0.049], ["2023-12-18", 0.0475], ["2023-12-18", 0.0552], ["2023-12-18", 0.0547], ["2023-12-18", 0.0546], ["2023-12-18", 0.054], ["2023-12-18", 0.0608], ["2023-12-18", 0.0635], ["2023-12-18", 0.0665], ["2023-12-18", 0.0733], ["2023-12-18", 0.0712], ["2023-12-18", 0.0726], ["2023-12-18", 0.0733], ["2023-12-18", 0.0727], ["2023-12-19", 0.0709], ["2023-12-19", 0.0857], ["2023-12-19", 0.09], ["2023-12-19", 0.0896], ["2023-12-19", 0.0892], ["2023-12-20", 0.0874], ["2023-12-20", 0.0861], ["2023-12-20", 0.0891], ["2023-12-20", 0.0859], ["2023-12-20", 0.0768], ["2023-12-20", 0.08], ["2023-12-20", 0.08], ["2023-12-21", 0.0854], ["2023-12-21", 0.0842], ["2023-12-21", 0.0828], ["2023-12-21", 0.0842], ["2023-12-21", 0.0885], ["2023-12-21", 0.0889], ["2023-12-21", 0.0896], ["2023-12-21", 0.0936], ["2023-12-21", 0.0946], ["2023-12-21", 0.0916], ["2023-12-21", 0.0956], ["2023-12-22", 0.0923], ["2023-12-22", 0.0888], ["2023-12-22", 0.1038], ["2023-12-22", 0.1035], ["2023-12-22", 0.1], ["2023-12-23", 0.1004], ["2023-12-24", 0.1056], ["2023-12-24", 0.1036], ["2023-12-26", 0.1021], ["2023-12-26", 0.1075], ["2023-12-26", 0.1061], ["2023-12-26", 0.1031], ["2023-12-26", 0.0928], ["2023-12-27", 0.0928], ["2023-12-27", 0.0947], ["2023-12-27", 0.0907], ["2023-12-27", 0.091], ["2023-12-27", 0.092], ["2023-12-27", 0.087], ["2023-12-28", 0.086], ["2023-12-28", 0.0817], ["2023-12-28", 0.0843], ["2023-12-29", 0.0816], ["2023-12-30", 0.0781], ["2023-12-30", 0.0716], ["2023-12-30", 0.0716], ["2023-12-30", 0.0706], ["2023-12-31", 0.07], ["2024-01-01", 0.0709], ["2024-01-02", 0.0569], ["2024-01-02", 0.0559], ["2024-01-02", 0.0553], ["2024-01-02", 0.0536], ["2024-01-03", 0.0536], ["2024-01-03", 0.0506], ["2024-01-04", 0.0509], ["2024-01-04", 0.0515], ["2024-01-04", 0.0509], ["2024-01-05", 0.0565], ["2024-01-05", 0.0568], ["2024-01-05", 0.0479], ["2024-01-06", 0.0479], ["2024-01-06", 0.0479], ["2024-01-07", 0.0509], ["2024-01-07", 0.0511], ["2024-01-07", 0.0497], ["2024-01-08", 0.0489], ["2024-01-08", 0.0489], ["2024-01-08", 0.05], ["2024-01-08", 0.05], ["2024-01-09", 0.0478], ["2024-01-09", 0.0475], ["2024-01-10", 0.0475], ["2024-01-10", 0.0475], ["2024-01-10", 0.0447], ["2024-01-10", 0.0447], ["2024-01-10", 0.0408], ["2024-01-11", 0.0403], ["2024-01-11", 0.0403], ["2024-01-11", 0.0403], ["2024-01-12", 0.0397], ["2024-01-12", 0.0397]] | ["https://youtu.be/ZqrvEkJ6ys0?si=3hQfmH4xa7KsEG3f", "https://www.brookings.edu/articles/ukraine-index-tracking-developments-in-the-ukraine-war/", "https://warontherocks.com/2023/11/adaptation-at-the-front-and-the-big-picture-in-ukraine/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/19/world/europe/ukraine-war-zelensky.html"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3181 | <p>Joseph Fischer and others were charged with crimes for their actions in the riot at the US Capitol Building on 6 January 2021 as Congress was tallying electoral votes, including a criminal charge for violating 18 U.S.C. § 1512(c) that concerns obstruction of congressional inquiries and investigations (<a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/fischer-v-united-states/" target="_blank">SCOTUSblog</a>). The District Court dismissed the charges made under 1512(c) against various defendants, deciding that the statute does not apply to the circumstances in the case (<a href="https://casetext.com/case/united-states-v-miller-1252" target="_blank">Casetext - US v. Miller (DC Circuit Court of Appeals)</a>, <a href="https://www.lawfaremedia.org/current-projects/the-jan.-6-project/prosecuting-the-insurrectionists/prosecution-documents#Fischer" target="_blank">Lawfare</a>). The DC Court of Appeals reversed the District Court, and the Supreme Court agreed to hear the case (<a href="https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/dc-circuit-court-clears-way-obstruction-charges-against-jan-6-rioters" target="_blank">Lawfare</a>, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/supreme-court-january-6-obstruction-law/" target="_blank">CBS News</a>). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2023 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." Any Supreme Court disposition of a case involving Edward Lang or Garret Miller will be immaterial.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | In Fischer v. United States, will the Supreme Court rule that 18 U.S.C. § 1512(c), which prohibits obstruction of congressional inquiries and investigations, can be used to prosecute Joseph Fischer for his actions in the riot at the US Capitol on 6 January 2021? | 2023-12-22 | [["2023-12-22", 0.54], ["2023-12-22", 0.57], ["2023-12-22", 0.7133], ["2023-12-23", 0.735], ["2023-12-23", 0.63], ["2023-12-23", 0.644], ["2023-12-23", 0.646], ["2023-12-23", 0.65], ["2023-12-23", 0.5833], ["2023-12-23", 0.55], ["2023-12-24", 0.5375], ["2023-12-24", 0.5], ["2023-12-25", 0.468], ["2023-12-25", 0.4436], ["2023-12-27", 0.374], ["2023-12-27", 0.309], ["2023-12-27", 0.305], ["2023-12-27", 0.276], ["2023-12-28", 0.281], ["2023-12-28", 0.279], ["2023-12-30", 0.286], ["2023-12-31", 0.341], ["2023-12-31", 0.344], ["2023-12-31", 0.354], ["2023-12-31", 0.352], ["2023-12-31", 0.414], ["2024-01-01", 0.414], ["2024-01-02", 0.481], ["2024-01-04", 0.481], ["2024-01-04", 0.525], ["2024-01-04", 0.58], ["2024-01-05", 0.582], ["2024-01-05", 0.549], ["2024-01-06", 0.546], ["2024-01-07", 0.572], ["2024-01-07", 0.562], ["2024-01-09", 0.562], ["2024-01-10", 0.58], ["2024-01-11", 0.6355], ["2024-01-11", 0.61], ["2024-01-12", 0.615], ["2024-01-12", 0.615]] | ["https://www.cbsnews.com/news/supreme-court-declines-to-fast-track-trump-immunity-dispute-in-blow-to-special-counsel/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | 2023-11-24 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3057 |
<p>Hamas, the de facto ruler of the Gaza Strip, has reportedly taken over 100 Israelis hostage during its attack on southern Israel in October 2023 (<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/08/hamas-taken-israeli-hostages-into-gaza" target="_blank">Guardian</a>, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/hamas-israel-hostage-attack-us-palestinian-rcna119375" target="_blank">NBC News</a>). The exchange of persons must be completed to count, though it need not involve all captured Israelis. Releasing persons to third parties, including the transfer of jailed prisoners to other countries, in accordance with an agreement would count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 19 November 2023</span>: There must be a public announcement or acknowledgment of an exchange of persons (i.e., people for people) to count.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-11-24 | Before 9 April 2024, will Israel publicly announce or acknowledge a hostage/prisoner exchange with a group holding one or more Israelis captured in the attack in southern Israel in early October 2023? | 2023-10-08 | [["2023-10-09", 0.7], ["2023-10-09", 0.55], ["2023-10-09", 0.475], ["2023-10-09", 0.3967], ["2023-10-09", 0.4725], ["2023-10-09", 0.488], ["2023-10-09", 0.4317], ["2023-10-09", 0.5129], ["2023-10-09", 0.5738], ["2023-10-09", 0.5988], ["2023-10-09", 0.5433], ["2023-10-09", 0.504], ["2023-10-09", 0.5173], ["2023-10-09", 0.495], ["2023-10-09", 0.5108], ["2023-10-09", 0.5421], ["2023-10-09", 0.5593], ["2023-10-09", 0.5631], ["2023-10-09", 0.5613], ["2023-10-09", 0.5476], ["2023-10-09", 0.5547], ["2023-10-09", 0.5553], ["2023-10-09", 0.5524], ["2023-10-09", 0.5772], ["2023-10-09", 0.5705], ["2023-10-10", 0.591], ["2023-10-10", 0.5986], ["2023-10-10", 0.6055], ["2023-10-10", 0.593], ["2023-10-10", 0.5975], ["2023-10-10", 0.5952], ["2023-10-10", 0.5877], ["2023-10-10", 0.5852], ["2023-10-10", 0.5882], ["2023-10-10", 0.5907], ["2023-10-10", 0.5976], ["2023-10-10", 0.5979], ["2023-10-10", 0.5953], ["2023-10-10", 0.5826], ["2023-10-11", 0.5774], ["2023-10-11", 0.5594], ["2023-10-11", 0.5624], ["2023-10-12", 0.6038], ["2023-10-12", 0.5931], ["2023-10-12", 0.5897], ["2023-10-12", 0.5857], ["2023-10-12", 0.6144], ["2023-10-12", 0.6219], ["2023-10-12", 0.6232], ["2023-10-12", 0.6348], ["2023-10-12", 0.61], ["2023-10-12", 0.6032], ["2023-10-12", 0.605], ["2023-10-12", 0.6], ["2023-10-12", 0.6014], ["2023-10-12", 0.6027], ["2023-10-12", 0.6032], ["2023-10-12", 0.5943], ["2023-10-12", 0.603], ["2023-10-12", 0.5821], ["2023-10-12", 0.5783], ["2023-10-12", 0.5552], ["2023-10-12", 0.5658], ["2023-10-12", 0.5575], ["2023-10-13", 0.5632], ["2023-10-13", 0.5308], ["2023-10-13", 0.5368], ["2023-10-13", 0.5247], ["2023-10-13", 0.499], ["2023-10-13", 0.491], ["2023-10-13", 0.4433], ["2023-10-13", 0.4535], ["2023-10-13", 0.457], ["2023-10-14", 0.4575], ["2023-10-14", 0.438], ["2023-10-14", 0.438], ["2023-10-14", 0.4176], ["2023-10-14", 0.4152], ["2023-10-14", 0.4055], ["2023-10-14", 0.4191], ["2023-10-14", 0.4267], ["2023-10-14", 0.4404], ["2023-10-14", 0.4229], ["2023-10-14", 0.432], ["2023-10-15", 0.4283], ["2023-10-15", 0.4292], ["2023-10-15", 0.4114], ["2023-10-16", 0.4114], ["2023-10-16", 0.4159], ["2023-10-17", 0.4245], ["2023-10-17", 0.4345], ["2023-10-17", 0.4482], ["2023-10-17", 0.4482], ["2023-10-18", 0.4482], ["2023-10-18", 0.4186], ["2023-10-19", 0.4182], ["2023-10-19", 0.4186], ["2023-10-20", 0.4177], ["2023-10-20", 0.4064], ["2023-10-20", 0.4073], ["2023-10-21", 0.4073], ["2023-10-21", 0.4386], ["2023-10-21", 0.4591], ["2023-10-21", 0.4614], ["2023-10-21", 0.4523], ["2023-10-21", 0.4773], ["2023-10-22", 0.4923], ["2023-10-23", 0.4918], ["2023-10-23", 0.4941], ["2023-10-23", 0.4782], ["2023-10-24", 0.4652], ["2023-10-24", 0.4617], ["2023-10-24", 0.4804], ["2023-10-24", 0.4604], ["2023-10-24", 0.4613], ["2023-10-24", 0.4646], ["2023-10-25", 0.4642], ["2023-10-25", 0.4383], ["2023-10-25", 0.4267], ["2023-10-26", 0.3938], ["2023-10-26", 0.3854], ["2023-10-26", 0.3854], ["2023-10-26", 0.3854], ["2023-10-26", 0.3729], ["2023-10-26", 0.3771], ["2023-10-26", 0.3733], ["2023-10-26", 0.3729], ["2023-10-26", 0.3625], ["2023-10-26", 0.3668], ["2023-10-26", 0.3528], ["2023-10-27", 0.3368], ["2023-10-27", 0.3408], ["2023-10-27", 0.3248], ["2023-10-27", 0.3296], ["2023-10-27", 0.3244], ["2023-10-28", 0.3368], ["2023-10-28", 0.354], ["2023-10-28", 0.36], ["2023-10-28", 0.358], ["2023-10-29", 0.326], ["2023-10-29", 0.3376], ["2023-10-30", 0.3336], ["2023-10-30", 0.3336], ["2023-10-30", 0.3304], ["2023-10-30", 0.3056], ["2023-10-31", 0.3196], ["2023-10-31", 0.3352], ["2023-10-31", 0.3352], ["2023-11-01", 0.338], ["2023-11-02", 0.3456], ["2023-11-02", 0.3554], ["2023-11-02", 0.3669], ["2023-11-02", 0.3769], ["2023-11-03", 0.3769], ["2023-11-03", 0.3785], ["2023-11-03", 0.3746], ["2023-11-05", 0.3762], ["2023-11-05", 0.3715], ["2023-11-05", 0.3715], ["2023-11-06", 0.3696], ["2023-11-06", 0.3831], ["2023-11-08", 0.3846], ["2023-11-09", 0.3869], ["2023-11-10", 0.3869], ["2023-11-10", 0.3862], ["2023-11-10", 0.3908], ["2023-11-10", 0.3896], ["2023-11-11", 0.3896], ["2023-11-11", 0.3808], ["2023-11-11", 0.3738], ["2023-11-11", 0.3988], ["2023-11-12", 0.4092], ["2023-11-12", 0.4381], ["2023-11-12", 0.4335], ["2023-11-13", 0.4335], ["2023-11-14", 0.4304], ["2023-11-14", 0.4292], ["2023-11-14", 0.4315], ["2023-11-15", 0.4165], ["2023-11-16", 0.4165], ["2023-11-16", 0.4181], ["2023-11-16", 0.4322], ["2023-11-16", 0.433], ["2023-11-16", 0.4389], ["2023-11-16", 0.4452], ["2023-11-17", 0.4452], ["2023-11-19", 0.4533], ["2023-11-19", 0.4359], ["2023-11-19", 0.4381], ["2023-11-19", 0.44], ["2023-11-20", 0.4452], ["2023-11-20", 0.4337], ["2023-11-21", 0.4574], ["2023-11-21", 0.4674], ["2023-11-21", 0.47], ["2023-11-21", 0.4707], ["2023-11-21", 0.4856], ["2023-11-21", 0.5022], ["2023-11-21", 0.5204], ["2023-11-21", 0.5289], ["2023-11-21", 0.5567], ["2023-11-21", 0.56], ["2023-11-21", 0.5693], ["2023-11-21", 0.5707], ["2023-11-22", 0.5896], ["2023-11-22", 0.6196], ["2023-11-22", 0.6233], ["2023-11-22", 0.6381], ["2023-11-22", 0.6437], ["2023-11-22", 0.6511], ["2023-11-22", 0.6663], ["2023-11-22", 0.6764], ["2023-11-22", 0.6818], ["2023-11-22", 0.685], ["2023-11-22", 0.7132], ["2023-11-22", 0.7311], ["2023-11-22", 0.7468], ["2023-11-22", 0.7471], ["2023-11-22", 0.7489], ["2023-11-22", 0.7768], ["2023-11-22", 0.7911], ["2023-11-22", 0.7964], ["2023-11-22", 0.8164], ["2023-11-22", 0.82], ["2023-11-22", 0.8196], ["2023-11-22", 0.8211], ["2023-11-22", 0.8239], ["2023-11-22", 0.8361], ["2023-11-23", 0.8543], ["2023-11-23", 0.8721], ["2023-11-23", 0.8954], ["2023-11-24", 0.8961], ["2023-11-24", 0.8961]] | ["https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-hamas-war-hostages-cease-fire-agreement-netanyahu-cabinet-meeting/", "https://www.axios.com/2023/10/30/hamas-gaza-hostages-mossad-barnea-war-israel", "https://www.firstpost.com/world/hamas-chief-says-no-prisoner-exchange-before-the-end-of-war-13229982.html", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/8/why-are-so-many-palestinian-prisoners-in-israeli-jails", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/22/middleeast/israel-approves-hamas-hostage-deal-intl/index.html", "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/israel-interested-in-prisoner-swap-deal-israeli-media-claims/3050169#", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/15/world/middleeast/israel-hamas-hostage-deal.html", "https://edition.cnn.com/2023/11/22/middleeast/israel-approves-hamas-hostage-deal-intl/index.html", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/hamas-releases-two-hostages-american-mother-and-daughter-judith-and-natalie-raanan/", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/24/middleeast/hostage-release-gaza-israel-hamas-truce-intl-hnk/index.html", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/10/hamas-says-will-kill-hostages-if-israeli-attacks-on-gaza-civilians-continue", "https://www.denverpost.com/2009/06/23/freeing-of-hamas-leader-stirs-talk-of-prisoner-swap/", "https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-gaza-hamas-war-ed6875f15ea0d2bc196e4033b54b7194", "https://www.ynetnews.com/article/rjmjp2sqt", "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-releases-two-us-hostages-for-humanitarian-reasons-response-qatari-efforts-2023-10-20/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/white-house-says-israel-hamas-hostage-deal-closer-than-before-2023-11-21/", "https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-ceasefire-what-to-know-af1cfbc9dcaa1485ed7a9efaca7ec2b7", "https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c42bccea-67ab-11ee-a4e7-0fb10af55688?shareToken=b4a4cf3d6178528c49ac938fedeefdd1", "https://music.youtube.com/watch?v=p6Mfq7z_vHc&si=_ZfNyE4f4f1REo_h", "https://www.axios.com/2023/11/21/israel-hamas-hostage-ceasefire-deal-imminent", "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-renews-call-gazans-flee-key-southern-city-2023-11-17/", "https://www.npr.org/2023/11/07/1210775385/israel-hamas-gaza-hostages-prisoner-exchange", "https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20201018-remembering-israels-gilad-shalit-prisoner-swap-deal/", "https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/israel-hamas-war-gaza-strip-2023-11-21?wsj_native_webview=android&ace_environment=androidphone%2Cwebview&ace_config=%7B%22wsj%22%3A%7B%22djcmp%22%3A%7B%22propertyHref%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fwsj.android.app%22%7D%7D%7D&ns=prod/accounts-wsj", "https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20201018-"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2023-10-25 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3068 |
<p>Republicans in the House of Representatives are looking at various paths forward to elect a new Speaker of the House (<a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4257076-jeffries-says-informal-conversations-taking-place-for-bipartisan-solution-to-speakership/" target="_blank">The Hill</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/16/politics/house-speaker-fight-jim-jordan/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>). Only one or more representatives from each party must vote for the winner of next Speaker to count. If no new Speaker has been elected as of the closing date of this question, the closing date will be extended.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 18 October 2023</span>: A new Speaker elected with a time-limited term would count. A vote to expand the powers of the Speaker of the House Pro Tempore alone would not count.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-10-25 | Will the next Speaker of the US House of Representatives be elected with votes from both Republicans and Democrats? | 2023-10-16 | [["2023-10-16", 0.98], ["2023-10-16", 0.54], ["2023-10-16", 0.4767], ["2023-10-16", 0.3575], ["2023-10-16", 0.294], ["2023-10-16", 0.2917], ["2023-10-16", 0.25], ["2023-10-16", 0.225], ["2023-10-16", 0.2], ["2023-10-17", 0.3111], ["2023-10-17", 0.335], ["2023-10-17", 0.3955], ["2023-10-17", 0.3667], ["2023-10-17", 0.3615], ["2023-10-17", 0.3592], ["2023-10-17", 0.3371], ["2023-10-17", 0.3407], ["2023-10-17", 0.326], ["2023-10-17", 0.3106], ["2023-10-17", 0.2953], ["2023-10-17", 0.2928], ["2023-10-17", 0.2826], ["2023-10-17", 0.2775], ["2023-10-17", 0.2738], ["2023-10-17", 0.2705], ["2023-10-17", 0.2596], ["2023-10-17", 0.2565], ["2023-10-17", 0.2871], ["2023-10-17", 0.2871], ["2023-10-17", 0.2856], ["2023-10-17", 0.2958], ["2023-10-17", 0.2885], ["2023-10-17", 0.2885], ["2023-10-17", 0.2818], ["2023-10-17", 0.2818], ["2023-10-17", 0.2468], ["2023-10-17", 0.2539], ["2023-10-17", 0.2793], ["2023-10-17", 0.2703], ["2023-10-17", 0.2713], ["2023-10-17", 0.2648], ["2023-10-17", 0.2597], ["2023-10-17", 0.2645], ["2023-10-17", 0.263], ["2023-10-17", 0.2609], ["2023-10-17", 0.2682], ["2023-10-18", 0.2606], ["2023-10-18", 0.2546], ["2023-10-18", 0.254], ["2023-10-18", 0.2626], ["2023-10-18", 0.2723], ["2023-10-18", 0.2746], ["2023-10-18", 0.2683], ["2023-10-18", 0.2719], ["2023-10-18", 0.2839], ["2023-10-18", 0.2897], ["2023-10-18", 0.2932], ["2023-10-18", 0.293], ["2023-10-18", 0.2908], ["2023-10-18", 0.2908], ["2023-10-18", 0.2908], ["2023-10-18", 0.2935], ["2023-10-18", 0.2895], ["2023-10-19", 0.2892], ["2023-10-19", 0.2897], ["2023-10-19", 0.2903], ["2023-10-19", 0.2866], ["2023-10-19", 0.2866], ["2023-10-19", 0.2933], ["2023-10-19", 0.2885], ["2023-10-19", 0.2939], ["2023-10-19", 0.2821], ["2023-10-19", 0.2905], ["2023-10-20", 0.2942], ["2023-10-20", 0.2583], ["2023-10-20", 0.2458], ["2023-10-20", 0.241], ["2023-10-20", 0.2542], ["2023-10-20", 0.2556], ["2023-10-20", 0.2604], ["2023-10-20", 0.2528], ["2023-10-20", 0.2383], ["2023-10-21", 0.2708], ["2023-10-21", 0.2717], ["2023-10-21", 0.28], ["2023-10-21", 0.2782], ["2023-10-22", 0.2567], ["2023-10-22", 0.2594], ["2023-10-22", 0.2583], ["2023-10-22", 0.2589], ["2023-10-22", 0.255], ["2023-10-22", 0.2528], ["2023-10-23", 0.2517], ["2023-10-23", 0.2511], ["2023-10-23", 0.2539], ["2023-10-23", 0.2539], ["2023-10-23", 0.2678], ["2023-10-23", 0.2542], ["2023-10-23", 0.2458], ["2023-10-24", 0.2453], ["2023-10-24", 0.2468], ["2023-10-24", 0.2347], ["2023-10-24", 0.2353], ["2023-10-24", 0.2468], ["2023-10-24", 0.2758], ["2023-10-25", 0.2742], ["2023-10-25", 0.2663], ["2023-10-25", 0.2637], ["2023-10-25", 0.2453], ["2023-10-25", 0.2347], ["2023-10-25", 0.2389], ["2023-10-25", 0.1953], ["2023-10-25", 0.1821], ["2023-10-25", 0.1821]] | ["https://abcnews.go.com/538/jim-jordan-steve-scalise-kevin-mccarthy-speaker-house/story?id=103861244", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/10/19/jim-jordan-wont-be-next-speaker/", "https://www.axios.com/2023/10/16/jim-jordan-house-speaker-endorsements", "https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/house-democrats-gops-speaker-candidate/story?id=104254572", "https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1712648371364635067?t=l8CjS2FH5rIILvLNDjYskw&s=19", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nathaniel_P._Banks#Congress", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/17/politics/jordan-speaker-vote-house-floor/index.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/16/us/politics/jordan-speakership-holdouts.html", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/jordan-pledges-to-bring-all-republicans-together-in-letter-to-house-gop-on-eve-of-speaker-election/ar-AA1ij95M", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sixth_Party_System"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2024-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2981 |
<p>The labor force participation rate has been trending down since the beginning of the 21st century (<a href="https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2023/august/how-far-is-labor-force-participation-from-its-trend/" target="_blank">Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco</a>, <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/participationrate.asp" target="_blank">Investopedia</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using Bureau of Labor Statistics data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database once figures for December 2023 are first released, expected in January 2024 (<a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART" target="_blank">FRED</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2024-01-05 | Will the US civilian labor force participation rate be higher in December 2023 than it was in October 2023? | 2023-08-17 | [["2023-08-18", 0.98], ["2023-08-18", 0.765], ["2023-08-18", 0.78], ["2023-08-18", 0.52], ["2023-08-18", 0.515], ["2023-08-18", 0.532], ["2023-08-19", 0.5267], ["2023-08-19", 0.5283], ["2023-08-19", 0.5417], ["2023-08-19", 0.5786], ["2023-08-19", 0.6063], ["2023-08-19", 0.6075], ["2023-08-19", 0.6067], ["2023-08-19", 0.602], ["2023-08-19", 0.5955], ["2023-08-19", 0.5833], ["2023-08-19", 0.5842], ["2023-08-19", 0.5631], ["2023-08-19", 0.5943], ["2023-08-20", 0.588], ["2023-08-20", 0.5913], ["2023-08-20", 0.5913], ["2023-08-20", 0.5918], ["2023-08-20", 0.5744], ["2023-08-20", 0.5705], ["2023-08-21", 0.5658], ["2023-08-21", 0.5642], ["2023-08-21", 0.561], ["2023-08-21", 0.5724], ["2023-08-21", 0.5525], ["2023-08-21", 0.5558], ["2023-08-21", 0.558], ["2023-08-22", 0.568], ["2023-08-22", 0.571], ["2023-08-22", 0.5616], ["2023-08-22", 0.5782], ["2023-08-22", 0.5812], ["2023-08-23", 0.5481], ["2023-08-24", 0.5542], ["2023-08-24", 0.5625], ["2023-08-24", 0.5542], ["2023-08-24", 0.55], ["2023-08-24", 0.55], ["2023-08-25", 0.5385], ["2023-08-25", 0.5438], ["2023-08-29", 0.5336], ["2023-09-01", 0.5786], ["2023-09-01", 0.5786], ["2023-09-01", 0.54], ["2023-09-02", 0.5421], ["2023-09-03", 0.5529], ["2023-09-05", 0.5493], ["2023-09-06", 0.5279], ["2023-09-06", 0.5193], ["2023-09-06", 0.5171], ["2023-09-07", 0.5386], ["2023-09-08", 0.5393], ["2023-09-08", 0.5407], ["2023-09-09", 0.5386], ["2023-09-11", 0.5347], ["2023-09-11", 0.5333], ["2023-09-11", 0.5487], ["2023-09-14", 0.566], ["2023-09-14", 0.58], ["2023-09-15", 0.5847], ["2023-09-16", 0.5888], ["2023-09-18", 0.5856], ["2023-09-18", 0.6044], ["2023-09-18", 0.5838], ["2023-09-19", 0.6069], ["2023-09-19", 0.63], ["2023-09-19", 0.6241], ["2023-09-19", 0.5976], ["2023-09-19", 0.6194], ["2023-09-20", 0.62], ["2023-09-21", 0.6356], ["2023-09-22", 0.6272], ["2023-09-23", 0.6289], ["2023-09-23", 0.6117], ["2023-09-27", 0.615], ["2023-09-27", 0.6172], ["2023-09-28", 0.6239], ["2023-09-29", 0.6239], ["2023-09-30", 0.6211], ["2023-09-30", 0.6217], ["2023-10-01", 0.6244], ["2023-10-02", 0.63], ["2023-10-02", 0.63], ["2023-10-04", 0.6383], ["2023-10-04", 0.6389], ["2023-10-06", 0.6537], ["2023-10-06", 0.6158], ["2023-10-06", 0.6316], ["2023-10-06", 0.6284], ["2023-10-06", 0.6121], ["2023-10-09", 0.5984], ["2023-10-10", 0.6011], ["2023-10-12", 0.5779], ["2023-10-12", 0.5774], ["2023-10-12", 0.5958], ["2023-10-12", 0.6053], ["2023-10-12", 0.5942], ["2023-10-13", 0.5889], ["2023-10-13", 0.5795], ["2023-10-14", 0.5795], ["2023-10-15", 0.585], ["2023-10-16", 0.5795], ["2023-10-18", 0.576], ["2023-10-18", 0.575], ["2023-10-22", 0.5805], ["2023-10-23", 0.581], ["2023-10-28", 0.5825], ["2023-10-29", 0.56], ["2023-10-30", 0.549], ["2023-10-30", 0.557], ["2023-11-01", 0.557], ["2023-11-01", 0.559], ["2023-11-02", 0.557], ["2023-11-02", 0.558], ["2023-11-03", 0.5715], ["2023-11-03", 0.5365], ["2023-11-03", 0.5415], ["2023-11-03", 0.5375], ["2023-11-05", 0.536], ["2023-11-06", 0.5355], ["2023-11-06", 0.538], ["2023-11-08", 0.538], ["2023-11-09", 0.5424], ["2023-11-10", 0.551], ["2023-11-11", 0.5476], ["2023-11-13", 0.5571], ["2023-11-18", 0.5571], ["2023-11-18", 0.569], ["2023-11-20", 0.57], ["2023-11-20", 0.5705], ["2023-11-20", 0.571], ["2023-11-22", 0.571], ["2023-11-22", 0.569], ["2023-11-25", 0.549], ["2023-11-25", 0.5471], ["2023-11-26", 0.559], ["2023-11-26", 0.5605], ["2023-11-26", 0.5567], ["2023-11-27", 0.5567], ["2023-11-30", 0.5567], ["2023-12-02", 0.5567], ["2023-12-03", 0.5567], ["2023-12-03", 0.5567], ["2023-12-04", 0.5419], ["2023-12-05", 0.5405], ["2023-12-07", 0.5405], ["2023-12-08", 0.5419], ["2023-12-08", 0.5443], ["2023-12-08", 0.55], ["2023-12-08", 0.5524], ["2023-12-08", 0.5652], ["2023-12-08", 0.5762], ["2023-12-09", 0.581], ["2023-12-09", 0.5819], ["2023-12-10", 0.5771], ["2023-12-11", 0.5876], ["2023-12-11", 0.5919], ["2023-12-11", 0.5943], ["2023-12-12", 0.6133], ["2023-12-12", 0.6143], ["2023-12-13", 0.6233], ["2023-12-13", 0.6267], ["2023-12-13", 0.6281], ["2023-12-14", 0.6352], ["2023-12-14", 0.6429], ["2023-12-14", 0.649], ["2023-12-14", 0.6548], ["2023-12-14", 0.6714], ["2023-12-14", 0.6748], ["2023-12-15", 0.6819], ["2023-12-15", 0.6833], ["2023-12-15", 0.689], ["2023-12-16", 0.7], ["2023-12-16", 0.6952], ["2023-12-16", 0.6967], ["2023-12-17", 0.6995], ["2023-12-17", 0.6995], ["2023-12-18", 0.7057], ["2023-12-18", 0.7024], ["2023-12-18", 0.7048], ["2023-12-18", 0.7157], ["2023-12-19", 0.7276], ["2023-12-20", 0.73], ["2023-12-20", 0.7343], ["2023-12-20", 0.7343], ["2023-12-21", 0.7376], ["2023-12-21", 0.7533], ["2023-12-22", 0.7571], ["2023-12-22", 0.7524], ["2023-12-22", 0.7576], ["2023-12-22", 0.7586], ["2023-12-23", 0.749], ["2023-12-24", 0.7524], ["2023-12-26", 0.7524], ["2023-12-26", 0.7533], ["2023-12-26", 0.7581], ["2023-12-26", 0.7629], ["2023-12-26", 0.7643], ["2023-12-27", 0.7659], ["2023-12-28", 0.7764], ["2023-12-28", 0.7895], ["2023-12-28", 0.7918], ["2023-12-29", 0.8009], ["2023-12-29", 0.8014], ["2023-12-30", 0.8014], ["2023-12-31", 0.8182], ["2024-01-01", 0.8182]] | ["https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CNP16OV", "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm", "https://www.paychex.com/articles/human-resources/retirees-rejoining-the-workforce", "https://www.hiringlab.org/2023/11/15/indeeds-2024-us-jobs-hiring-trends-report/", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CLF16OV", "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-today-stocks-fall-after-surprise-drop-in-us-unemployment-135021470.html?.tsrc=fin-notif", "https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/03/jobs-report-october-2023-us-payrolls-increased-by-150000-in-october-less-than-expected.html", "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.t01.htm"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3203 | <p>Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is facing scrutiny and criticism for being hospitalized without informing members of the military or Biden administration (<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/08/politics/lloyd-austin-hospitalization-what-we-know/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/08/austins-hospital-debacle-pentagon-00134372" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/lawmakers-demand-answers-defense-secretary-austin-delayed-disclosing-h-rcna132853" target="_blank">NBC News</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Will Lloyd Austin cease to be the US Secretary of Defense before 9 March 2024? | 2024-01-09 | [["2024-01-09", 0.95], ["2024-01-09", 0.965], ["2024-01-09", 0.7433], ["2024-01-09", 0.61], ["2024-01-09", 0.626], ["2024-01-09", 0.6317], ["2024-01-09", 0.6486], ["2024-01-09", 0.6925], ["2024-01-09", 0.69], ["2024-01-09", 0.696], ["2024-01-09", 0.68], ["2024-01-09", 0.6733], ["2024-01-09", 0.64], ["2024-01-09", 0.6479], ["2024-01-09", 0.61], ["2024-01-09", 0.575], ["2024-01-09", 0.575], ["2024-01-09", 0.5729], ["2024-01-09", 0.5994], ["2024-01-09", 0.5994], ["2024-01-09", 0.6126], ["2024-01-09", 0.592], ["2024-01-09", 0.5671], ["2024-01-09", 0.5527], ["2024-01-09", 0.5645], ["2024-01-09", 0.5609], ["2024-01-09", 0.5304], ["2024-01-09", 0.5125], ["2024-01-09", 0.5188], ["2024-01-09", 0.5124], ["2024-01-09", 0.5262], ["2024-01-09", 0.5338], ["2024-01-10", 0.527], ["2024-01-10", 0.5296], ["2024-01-10", 0.5304], ["2024-01-10", 0.5231], ["2024-01-10", 0.519], ["2024-01-10", 0.5297], ["2024-01-10", 0.5297], ["2024-01-10", 0.5238], ["2024-01-10", 0.5185], ["2024-01-10", 0.5103], ["2024-01-10", 0.4986], ["2024-01-10", 0.505], ["2024-01-10", 0.5184], ["2024-01-10", 0.5195], ["2024-01-10", 0.5187], ["2024-01-10", 0.5067], ["2024-01-10", 0.498], ["2024-01-10", 0.489], ["2024-01-10", 0.5102], ["2024-01-10", 0.5012], ["2024-01-10", 0.4929], ["2024-01-10", 0.4837], ["2024-01-10", 0.4873], ["2024-01-10", 0.4827], ["2024-01-10", 0.4842], ["2024-01-10", 0.4847], ["2024-01-10", 0.4887], ["2024-01-10", 0.4794], ["2024-01-10", 0.4794], ["2024-01-10", 0.4704], ["2024-01-10", 0.4629], ["2024-01-10", 0.4736], ["2024-01-10", 0.48], ["2024-01-11", 0.4708], ["2024-01-11", 0.4598], ["2024-01-11", 0.4685], ["2024-01-11", 0.4604], ["2024-01-11", 0.4667], ["2024-01-11", 0.4638], ["2024-01-11", 0.4621], ["2024-01-11", 0.4596], ["2024-01-11", 0.4621], ["2024-01-11", 0.4568], ["2024-01-11", 0.4584], ["2024-01-11", 0.4584], ["2024-01-11", 0.4623], ["2024-01-11", 0.4596], ["2024-01-11", 0.4569], ["2024-01-11", 0.4627], ["2024-01-11", 0.4641], ["2024-01-12", 0.4655], ["2024-01-12", 0.4693], ["2024-01-12", 0.4684], ["2024-01-12", 0.4705], ["2024-01-12", 0.4705], ["2024-01-12", 0.47], ["2024-01-12", 0.47], ["2024-01-12", 0.4708], ["2024-01-12", 0.4658], ["2024-01-12", 0.468], ["2024-01-12", 0.4653], ["2024-01-12", 0.4618], ["2024-01-12", 0.4609], ["2024-01-12", 0.4711], ["2024-01-12", 0.4687], ["2024-01-13", 0.4742], ["2024-01-13", 0.4742]] | ["https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/09/politics/lloyd-austin-prostate-cancer/index.html", "https://www.cancer.net/cancer-types/prostate-cancer/statistics", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/01/08/lloyd-austin-defense-secretary-civilian-control/", "https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/08/austins-hospital-debacle-pentagon-00134372", "https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3637155/austin-continues-recovery/", "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/house-republican-to-file-impeachment-articles-against-lloyd-austin.amp", "https://www.krebsgesellschaft.de/onko-internetportal/basis-informationen-krebs/krebsarten/prostatakrebs/definition-und-haeufigkeit.html", "https://www.senate.gov/senators/117thCongress/tuberville-thomas.htm", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/did-pentagon-chief-austins-secret-hospitalization-break-rules-2024-01-09/", "https://sgp.fas.org/crs/natsec/IF10521.pdf", "https://www.axios.com/2024/01/09/lloyd-austin-hospitalization-white-house-review", "https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/when-washington-calls-for-firings-biden-usually-says-no-a230dc56?mod=mhp", "https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/08/biden-austin-resignation-00134280", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Secretary_of_Defense#List_of_secretaries_of_defense"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3161 | <p>As Israel's offensive in Gaza moves south toward the Egypt-Gaza border, concerns grow and contingencies are considered for a potential refugee crisis (<a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/12/07/palestinian-refugees-egypt-israel-america-relations" target="_blank">Axios</a>, <a href="https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/middle-east/1702127043-egypt-preparing-for-potential-gaza-residents-immigration-in-2024-report" target="_blank">i24</a>, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-11-24/egypt-president-says-future-palestinian-state-could-be-demilitarised" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>). Opening its border for individualized circumstances (e.g., medical evacuations, employees of specific organizations, family members of particular persons) alone would not count. Allowing refugees to enter Egypt in order to continue on to a different location would count. An announcement alone without evidence that Palestinians have actually crossed into Egypt would not count, and allowing refugees from Gaza who entered Egypt without authorization to stay or go on to another location would not count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Before 11 March 2024, will Egypt officially allow Palestinian refugees from the Gaza Strip who are not foreign nationals of a UN member state to enter Egypt? | 2023-12-11 | [["2023-12-11", 0.28], ["2023-12-11", 0.64], ["2023-12-11", 0.5933], ["2023-12-11", 0.695], ["2023-12-11", 0.618], ["2023-12-11", 0.566], ["2023-12-11", 0.6383], ["2023-12-11", 0.6643], ["2023-12-11", 0.6063], ["2023-12-11", 0.5856], ["2023-12-11", 0.528], ["2023-12-11", 0.4936], ["2023-12-11", 0.465], ["2023-12-11", 0.4292], ["2023-12-11", 0.3986], ["2023-12-12", 0.3913], ["2023-12-12", 0.4044], ["2023-12-12", 0.4218], ["2023-12-12", 0.4178], ["2023-12-12", 0.4089], ["2023-12-12", 0.3935], ["2023-12-12", 0.3843], ["2023-12-12", 0.3838], ["2023-12-12", 0.3819], ["2023-12-12", 0.3759], ["2023-12-12", 0.3943], ["2023-12-12", 0.3935], ["2023-12-12", 0.3978], ["2023-12-12", 0.4146], ["2023-12-12", 0.408], ["2023-12-12", 0.3931], ["2023-12-12", 0.3962], ["2023-12-12", 0.4037], ["2023-12-12", 0.403], ["2023-12-12", 0.403], ["2023-12-12", 0.3904], ["2023-12-12", 0.3786], ["2023-12-13", 0.3673], ["2023-12-13", 0.3652], ["2023-12-13", 0.3538], ["2023-12-13", 0.3533], ["2023-12-13", 0.3432], ["2023-12-13", 0.3343], ["2023-12-13", 0.3431], ["2023-12-13", 0.3419], ["2023-12-13", 0.3414], ["2023-12-13", 0.3376], ["2023-12-13", 0.3342], ["2023-12-14", 0.3267], ["2023-12-14", 0.3285], ["2023-12-14", 0.3295], ["2023-12-14", 0.3365], ["2023-12-14", 0.3324], ["2023-12-14", 0.3075], ["2023-12-14", 0.3213], ["2023-12-15", 0.2981], ["2023-12-15", 0.3061], ["2023-12-15", 0.2809], ["2023-12-15", 0.2809], ["2023-12-15", 0.3], ["2023-12-16", 0.3322], ["2023-12-16", 0.3294], ["2023-12-16", 0.3258], ["2023-12-16", 0.3389], ["2023-12-17", 0.327], ["2023-12-17", 0.31], ["2023-12-17", 0.306], ["2023-12-17", 0.3065], ["2023-12-17", 0.305], ["2023-12-17", 0.2885], ["2023-12-18", 0.2748], ["2023-12-18", 0.2986], ["2023-12-18", 0.3052], ["2023-12-18", 0.3062], ["2023-12-19", 0.3048], ["2023-12-19", 0.3048], ["2023-12-19", 0.3], ["2023-12-20", 0.2759], ["2023-12-20", 0.2718], ["2023-12-20", 0.2536], ["2023-12-20", 0.2535], ["2023-12-21", 0.2435], ["2023-12-21", 0.2457], ["2023-12-21", 0.2438], ["2023-12-21", 0.2221], ["2023-12-21", 0.2129], ["2023-12-21", 0.1904], ["2023-12-21", 0.1683], ["2023-12-21", 0.1679], ["2023-12-21", 0.1825], ["2023-12-21", 0.1842], ["2023-12-21", 0.1975], ["2023-12-22", 0.1933], ["2023-12-22", 0.19], ["2023-12-22", 0.1852], ["2023-12-22", 0.1856], ["2023-12-22", 0.1776], ["2023-12-22", 0.1796], ["2023-12-23", 0.1731], ["2023-12-25", 0.1762], ["2023-12-25", 0.1685], ["2023-12-26", 0.1685], ["2023-12-26", 0.1723], ["2023-12-26", 0.1435], ["2023-12-26", 0.1381], ["2023-12-27", 0.1374], ["2023-12-27", 0.1304], ["2023-12-27", 0.1311], ["2023-12-27", 0.1275], ["2023-12-27", 0.135], ["2023-12-28", 0.1357], ["2023-12-28", 0.1339], ["2023-12-30", 0.1429], ["2023-12-31", 0.1483], ["2023-12-31", 0.1707], ["2024-01-01", 0.1721], ["2024-01-02", 0.173], ["2024-01-02", 0.1663], ["2024-01-02", 0.165], ["2024-01-02", 0.165], ["2024-01-02", 0.165], ["2024-01-03", 0.1597], ["2024-01-04", 0.1597], ["2024-01-04", 0.1568], ["2024-01-04", 0.1777], ["2024-01-04", 0.1771], ["2024-01-04", 0.1606], ["2024-01-04", 0.1606], ["2024-01-05", 0.1681], ["2024-01-05", 0.1697], ["2024-01-05", 0.1659], ["2024-01-05", 0.1666], ["2024-01-05", 0.1628], ["2024-01-06", 0.1588], ["2024-01-06", 0.165], ["2024-01-06", 0.1659], ["2024-01-07", 0.1728], ["2024-01-08", 0.1722], ["2024-01-08", 0.1713], ["2024-01-08", 0.1656], ["2024-01-08", 0.1641], ["2024-01-10", 0.1616], ["2024-01-11", 0.1616], ["2024-01-11", 0.1591], ["2024-01-12", 0.1773], ["2024-01-12", 0.1894], ["2024-01-12", 0.19], ["2024-01-12", 0.19]] | ["https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/12/1144717", "https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2023/11/15/despite-its-sympathies-egypt-is-unlikely-to-help-palestinian-refugees", "https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/2294231:", "https://text.npr.org/1218388766", "https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/misir-disisleri-bakanligi-israilin-sahadaki-uygulamalari-filistinlileri-tehcir-etme-planlarini-dogrulu%C4%9Fu/3080902", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts", "https://www.unrwa.org/who-we-are/frequently-asked-questions:", "https://www.axios.com/2023/12/07/palestinian-refugees-egypt-israel-america-relations", "https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/gaza-egypt-rafah-crossing-1.6999574", "https://thehill.com/policy/international/4394602-blinken-palestinians-must-be-allowed-to-stay-in-gaza/", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/02/why-egypt-has-not-fully-opened-its-gaza-border-for-fleeing-palestinians", "https://www.israelhayom.com/2023/10/17/gaza-the-case-for-annexation/", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/09/middleeast/egypt-presidential-election-sisi-gaza-war-intl/index.html", "https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/misir-disisleri-bakanligi-israilin-sahadaki-uygulamalari-filistinlileri-tehcir-etme-planlarini-dogrulu"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | 2023-12-19 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2997 |
<p>As the 2024 election cycle approaches, there are calls to consider whether Donald Trump is barred from the office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment of the US Constitution due to actions on 6 January 2021 in Washington, DC (<a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/14th-amendment-section-3-new-legal-battle-trump/story?id=102547316" target="_blank">ABC News</a>, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/trump-supporters-flood-nh-election-office-calls-false-claims-ballot-ac-rcna102252" target="_blank">NBC News</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/08/25/14th-amendment-insurrection-00112777" target="_blank">Politico</a>). Section 3 states that no person who held federal or state office who "engaged in insurrection or rebellion" against the US can hold any federal or state office (<a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxiv" target="_blank">Cornell</a>). Appeals and litigation subsequent to a ruling or announcement are immaterial. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state, and a ruling in either a state or federal court would count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 3 September 2023</span>: For the purpose of this question, a "US court" includes state courts.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-12-19 | Before 15 January 2024, will a US court rule or state-level electoral authority announce that Donald Trump is ineligible to become president pursuant to Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | 2023-09-01 | [["2023-09-01", 0.535], ["2023-09-01", 0.53], ["2023-09-01", 0.3717], ["2023-09-01", 0.465], ["2023-09-01", 0.462], ["2023-09-01", 0.4142], ["2023-09-01", 0.4015], ["2023-09-02", 0.4353], ["2023-09-02", 0.4082], ["2023-09-02", 0.3837], ["2023-09-02", 0.422], ["2023-09-02", 0.4076], ["2023-09-02", 0.3765], ["2023-09-02", 0.3642], ["2023-09-03", 0.3632], ["2023-09-03", 0.3624], ["2023-09-03", 0.353], ["2023-09-03", 0.3474], ["2023-09-03", 0.335], ["2023-09-03", 0.3534], ["2023-09-03", 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0.1509]] | ["https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/06/us/politics/trump-colorado-14th-amendment-ballot.html", "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/colorado-supreme-court-bans-trump-from-the-states-ballot-under-constitutions-insurrection-clause", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/21/us/politics/donald-trump-14th-amendment-colorado.html", "https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/4346429-colorado-14th-amendment-state-supreme-court-disqualifying-trump/", "https://www.reuters.com/legal/colorado-judges-allows-trump-primary-ballot-delays-decision-general-election-2023-11-18/", "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/14th-amendment-cases-challenging-trump-eligibility-courts-unknown/", "https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/15/maine-14th-amendment-trump-00132136", "https://www.cbsnews.com/colorado/news/colorado-secretary-state-appeals-trump-ballot-ruling-colorado-supreme-court/", "https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/colorado-trump-14th-amendment-12-06-23/index.html", "https://news.yahoo.com/legal-experts-warn-trump-hyped-140357307.html", "https://www.providencejournal.com/story/news/politics/2023/11/27/trump-keeps-right-to-be-on-presidential-ballot-in-ri/71720185007/", "https://www.theusconstitution.org/blog/responding-to-mukasey-the-president-is-an-officer-under-section-3-of-the-fourteenth-amendment/", "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/constitutional-scholar-discusses-legal-battle-surrounding-trumps-ballot-eligibility", "https://webstersdictionary1828.com/", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2023/11/17/trump-cant-be-disqualified-from-colorado-ballot-under-14th-amendment-judge-rules/?sh=7b62eee12c58", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/17/politics/trump-colorado-ballot-14th-amendment-insurrection/index.html", "https://www.themainewire.com/2023/12/heres-what-happened-during-fridays-eight-hour-hearing-on-fmr-pres-trumps-ability-to-appear-on-maines-2024-primary-ballot/", "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/georgia-election-worker-tearfully-describes-fleeing-her-home-after-giulianis-false-claims-of-fraud", "https://thehill.com/opinion/judiciary/4318515-a-colorado-court-makes-it-official-trump-is-an-insurrectionist/", "https://lite.cnn.com/2023/11/21/politics/trump-critics-appeal-colorado-ruling/index.html", "https://lite.cnn.com/2023/11/18/politics/takeaways-from-the-blockbuster-trump-insurrectionist-ban-ruling/index.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/nov/21/trump-appeals-january-6-ruling-colorado", "https://www.axios.com/2023/12/06/colorado-supreme-court-trump-2024-ballot-lawsuit", "https://twitter.com/steve_vladeck/status/1737248992541524434", "https://coloradonewsline.com/briefs/colorado-supreme-court-trump/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2023-08-08 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2939 |
<p>Fighting over the ruins of the city of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region continues (<a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-pushes-to-reclaim-bakhmut-fighting-on-fallen-city-s-flanks/ar-AA1dCtpu" target="_blank">MSN</a>, <a href="https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/07/10/chechen-leaders-special-forces-deployed-in-ukraines-bakhmut-a81790" target="_blank">Moscow Times</a>, <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-counter-offensive-latest-updates-bakhmut-1811940" target="_blank">Newsweek</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (<a href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375" target="_blank">ISW</a>). The address of the building (Tsentr Nadannya Administratyvnykh Posluh Mista Bakhmut) is Myru St, 44, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84500, to which you can zoom on the interactive map by clicking the search button on the upper left of the screen and entering the address. The location identified by the interactive map will be used for resolution, and whether the building is damaged or destroyed would be immaterial. "Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives" would count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-08-08 | Will the administrative services building in Bakhmut, Ukraine, be under Ukrainian control on 8 August 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War? | 2023-07-12 | [["2023-07-18", 0.23], ["2023-07-18", 0.195], ["2023-07-18", 0.4533], ["2023-07-18", 0.39], ["2023-07-18", 0.3875], ["2023-07-18", 0.35], ["2023-07-18", 0.3333], ["2023-07-18", 0.3143], ["2023-07-18", 0.2813], ["2023-07-18", 0.3311], ["2023-07-18", 0.298], ["2023-07-18", 0.2836], ["2023-07-19", 0.2642], ["2023-07-19", 0.2654], ["2023-07-19", 0.2643], ["2023-07-19", 0.2467], ["2023-07-19", 0.2313], ["2023-07-19", 0.2471], ["2023-07-19", 0.2339], ["2023-07-19", 0.2268], ["2023-07-19", 0.2425], ["2023-07-19", 0.2395], ["2023-07-19", 0.24], ["2023-07-19", 0.2336], ["2023-07-19", 0.2278], ["2023-07-19", 0.2217], ["2023-07-19", 0.2136], ["2023-07-20", 0.2112], ["2023-07-20", 0.2148], ["2023-07-20", 0.225], 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0.1052], ["2023-07-31", 0.1047], ["2023-07-31", 0.123], ["2023-07-31", 0.122], ["2023-07-31", 0.1233], ["2023-07-31", 0.1217], ["2023-08-01", 0.1207], ["2023-08-01", 0.1207], ["2023-08-01", 0.1177], ["2023-08-01", 0.1187], ["2023-08-01", 0.1216], ["2023-08-01", 0.12], ["2023-08-01", 0.1245], ["2023-08-01", 0.1306], ["2023-08-02", 0.1294], ["2023-08-02", 0.1258], ["2023-08-02", 0.1229], ["2023-08-02", 0.1242], ["2023-08-02", 0.1235], ["2023-08-02", 0.1213], ["2023-08-02", 0.1171], ["2023-08-02", 0.1168], ["2023-08-02", 0.1152], ["2023-08-03", 0.1152], ["2023-08-03", 0.1139], ["2023-08-03", 0.1106], ["2023-08-03", 0.1103], ["2023-08-03", 0.1135], ["2023-08-03", 0.1084], ["2023-08-03", 0.1081], ["2023-08-03", 0.1065], ["2023-08-04", 0.1094], ["2023-08-04", 0.1059], ["2023-08-04", 0.1025], ["2023-08-04", 0.1022], ["2023-08-04", 0.0997], ["2023-08-04", 0.1009], ["2023-08-04", 0.0997], ["2023-08-04", 0.0991], ["2023-08-04", 0.0972], ["2023-08-04", 0.0975], ["2023-08-04", 0.0834], ["2023-08-04", 0.0809], ["2023-08-04", 0.0709], ["2023-08-04", 0.07], ["2023-08-04", 0.0638], ["2023-08-04", 0.0613], ["2023-08-04", 0.0603], ["2023-08-04", 0.0556], ["2023-08-04", 0.0553], ["2023-08-05", 0.055], ["2023-08-05", 0.0522], ["2023-08-05", 0.0416], ["2023-08-05", 0.0416], ["2023-08-05", 0.0403], ["2023-08-06", 0.0394], ["2023-08-06", 0.0391], ["2023-08-06", 0.0369], ["2023-08-06", 0.0369], ["2023-08-06", 0.0366], ["2023-08-06", 0.035], ["2023-08-06", 0.035], ["2023-08-06", 0.0341], ["2023-08-06", 0.0313], ["2023-08-06", 0.0318], ["2023-08-06", 0.0312], ["2023-08-06", 0.0309], ["2023-08-06", 0.0309], ["2023-08-06", 0.0576], ["2023-08-06", 0.0548], ["2023-08-07", 0.0535], ["2023-08-07", 0.0529], ["2023-08-07", 0.0524], ["2023-08-07", 0.0524], ["2023-08-07", 0.0509], ["2023-08-07", 0.0494], ["2023-08-07", 0.0481], ["2023-08-07", 0.0462], ["2023-08-07", 0.0462], ["2023-08-07", 0.0449], ["2023-08-07", 0.0443], ["2023-08-07", 0.0438], ["2023-08-07", 0.0432], ["2023-08-07", 0.0426], ["2023-08-07", 0.0425], ["2023-08-07", 0.0416], ["2023-08-07", 0.0405], ["2023-08-07", 0.0395], ["2023-08-07", 0.0316], ["2023-08-07", 0.0311], ["2023-08-07", 0.0317], ["2023-08-07", 0.0314], ["2023-08-07", 0.0305], ["2023-08-07", 0.0303], ["2023-08-07", 0.0297], ["2023-08-07", 0.029], ["2023-08-08", 0.0338], ["2023-08-08", 0.0295], ["2023-08-08", 0.029], ["2023-08-08", 0.0285], ["2023-08-08", 0.0283], ["2023-08-08", 0.0281], ["2023-08-08", 0.0281]] | ["https://worldcrunch.com/focus/russian-counteroffensive", "https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/kremlin%E2%80%99s-pyrrhic-victory-bakhmut-retrospective-battle-bakhmut", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Bakhmut", "https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-bakhmut-drone-footage-ambush-donetsk-russia-1815239", "https://www.fpri.org/article/2018/03/the-era-of-urban-warfare-is-already-here/", "https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Bakhmut%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20July%2026%2C2023.png", "https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-armed-forces-continue-advance-112400587.html", "https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/07/10/chechen-leaders-special-forces-deployed-in-ukraines-bakhmut-a81790", "https://www.euronews.com/2023/07/17/ukraine-war-drone-attack-on-black-sea-fleet-crimea-bridge-explosion-reports-cluster-bomb-t", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/26/ukrainian-forces-appear-to-advance-closer-to-bakhmut", "https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-aims-retake-ground-by-bakhmut-russia-says-it-repelled-attacks-2023-08-04/", "https://warontherocks.com/2023/08/zooming-out-on-ukraines-offensive/", "https://militaryland.net/maps/russian-invasion/bakhmut-city/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3056 | <p>For the purposes of this question, the groups or entities that the EU lists as a terrorist group or entity are those listed in Council Decision (CFSP) 2023/1514 (<a href="https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/en/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32023D1514" target="_blank">EUR-Lex</a>). An attack in the territorial waters or airspace of either the UK or a European Union member state would count. Both the attack and the accusation must occur during the question's open period to count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | Between 9 October 2023 and 9 July 2024, will the UK or a European Union member state publicly accuse a group or entity the EU lists as a terrorist group or entity of perpetrating an attack within either the UK or EU resulting in at least one fatality? | 2023-10-08 | [["2023-10-09", 0.52], ["2023-10-09", 0.635], ["2023-10-09", 0.65], ["2023-10-09", 0.5375], ["2023-10-09", 0.536], ["2023-10-09", 0.4583], ["2023-10-09", 0.4786], ["2023-10-09", 0.4963], ["2023-10-09", 0.4967], ["2023-10-09", 0.527], ["2023-10-09", 0.5091], ["2023-10-09", 0.5125], ["2023-10-09", 0.5158], ["2023-10-09", 0.5377], ["2023-10-09", 0.5385], ["2023-10-09", 0.5371], ["2023-10-09", 0.528], ["2023-10-09", 0.5575], ["2023-10-10", 0.5682], ["2023-10-10", 0.5672], ["2023-10-10", 0.5584], ["2023-10-10", 0.5355], ["2023-10-10", 0.5195], ["2023-10-10", 0.52], ["2023-10-10", 0.5264], ["2023-10-10", 0.5118], ["2023-10-10", 0.5004], ["2023-10-10", 0.4933], ["2023-10-10", 0.4875], ["2023-10-10", 0.486], ["2023-10-10", 0.4872], ["2023-10-10", 0.4904], ["2023-10-10", 0.4792], ["2023-10-11", 0.4985], ["2023-10-11", 0.4932], ["2023-10-12", 0.4827], ["2023-10-12", 0.464], ["2023-10-13", 0.4129], ["2023-10-13", 0.4033], ["2023-10-13", 0.4617], ["2023-10-13", 0.4608], ["2023-10-13", 0.4583], ["2023-10-13", 0.4962], ["2023-10-13", 0.5238], ["2023-10-13", 0.5286], ["2023-10-13", 0.5271], ["2023-10-14", 0.5236], ["2023-10-14", 0.5343], ["2023-10-14", 0.5864], ["2023-10-14", 0.5636], ["2023-10-14", 0.565], ["2023-10-14", 0.5593], ["2023-10-14", 0.5633], ["2023-10-14", 0.578], ["2023-10-14", 0.5919], ["2023-10-14", 0.5856], ["2023-10-14", 0.5988], ["2023-10-15", 0.6125], ["2023-10-15", 0.6113], ["2023-10-15", 0.6106], ["2023-10-15", 0.6044], ["2023-10-15", 0.6], ["2023-10-15", 0.6], ["2023-10-15", 0.604], ["2023-10-16", 0.5757], ["2023-10-16", 0.5673], ["2023-10-16", 0.5711], ["2023-10-16", 0.5295], ["2023-10-16", 0.5305], ["2023-10-16", 0.5352], ["2023-10-16", 0.5427], ["2023-10-16", 0.5473], ["2023-10-16", 0.5432], ["2023-10-16", 0.5341], ["2023-10-17", 0.5091], ["2023-10-17", 0.5114], ["2023-10-17", 0.5068], ["2023-10-17", 0.5073], ["2023-10-17", 0.5085], ["2023-10-17", 0.51], ["2023-10-18", 0.5056], ["2023-10-18", 0.4989], ["2023-10-18", 0.4739], ["2023-10-18", 0.4522], ["2023-10-18", 0.4422], ["2023-10-19", 0.4383], ["2023-10-19", 0.4378], ["2023-10-19", 0.4305], ["2023-10-19", 0.42], ["2023-10-20", 0.3916], ["2023-10-20", 0.4068], ["2023-10-21", 0.3958], ["2023-10-21", 0.3868], ["2023-10-21", 0.3832], ["2023-10-22", 0.3763], ["2023-10-22", 0.3758], ["2023-10-22", 0.3995], ["2023-10-23", 0.399], ["2023-10-23", 0.376], ["2023-10-24", 0.3735], ["2023-10-24", 0.406], ["2023-10-24", 0.4045], ["2023-10-26", 0.4045], ["2023-10-26", 0.394], ["2023-10-26", 0.389], ["2023-10-26", 0.3825], ["2023-10-27", 0.3695], ["2023-10-27", 0.36], ["2023-10-29", 0.368], ["2023-10-30", 0.369], ["2023-10-31", 0.3645], ["2023-11-01", 0.353], ["2023-11-02", 0.3762], ["2023-11-02", 0.3757], ["2023-11-02", 0.3733], ["2023-11-02", 0.3757], ["2023-11-03", 0.3681], ["2023-11-03", 0.3662], ["2023-11-04", 0.3781], ["2023-11-05", 0.38], ["2023-11-07", 0.3723], ["2023-11-07", 0.3468], ["2023-11-08", 0.3418], ["2023-11-08", 0.34], ["2023-11-08", 0.34], ["2023-11-08", 0.3368], ["2023-11-09", 0.3345], ["2023-11-11", 0.3305], ["2023-11-11", 0.3145], ["2023-11-12", 0.3559], ["2023-11-14", 0.3555], ["2023-11-14", 0.3741], ["2023-11-14", 0.36], ["2023-11-15", 0.3817], ["2023-11-15", 0.3817], ["2023-11-16", 0.3835], ["2023-11-16", 0.3835], ["2023-11-16", 0.3826], ["2023-11-17", 0.3826], ["2023-11-18", 0.3783], ["2023-11-18", 0.3722], ["2023-11-18", 0.3596], ["2023-11-20", 0.3596], ["2023-11-20", 0.3509], ["2023-11-22", 0.3265], ["2023-11-22", 0.3222], ["2023-11-25", 0.3165], ["2023-11-26", 0.313], ["2023-11-26", 0.3161], ["2023-11-26", 0.315], ["2023-11-26", 0.3288], ["2023-11-27", 0.3538], ["2023-11-27", 0.3633], ["2023-11-29", 0.3633], ["2023-11-29", 0.3888], ["2023-11-29", 0.4144], ["2023-11-29", 0.414], ["2023-11-30", 0.3808], ["2023-11-30", 0.3808], ["2023-12-03", 0.3528], ["2023-12-03", 0.3528], ["2023-12-03", 0.3524], ["2023-12-05", 0.3552], ["2023-12-07", 0.3552], ["2023-12-08", 0.3272], ["2023-12-08", 0.3272], ["2023-12-10", 0.3277], ["2023-12-11", 0.3312], ["2023-12-12", 0.3315], ["2023-12-13", 0.3323], ["2023-12-13", 0.3562], ["2023-12-14", 0.3562], ["2023-12-19", 0.3554], ["2023-12-21", 0.3538], ["2023-12-22", 0.3527], ["2023-12-23", 0.3488], ["2023-12-23", 0.3488], ["2023-12-25", 0.3373], ["2023-12-25", 0.34], ["2023-12-26", 0.34], ["2023-12-27", 0.34], ["2023-12-27", 0.3781], ["2023-12-27", 0.3796], ["2023-12-28", 0.3656], ["2023-12-28", 0.3641], ["2023-12-28", 0.3693], ["2024-01-01", 0.367], ["2024-01-02", 0.3622], ["2024-01-03", 0.3615], ["2024-01-04", 0.3581], ["2024-01-04", 0.3596], ["2024-01-04", 0.3596], ["2024-01-04", 0.3596], ["2024-01-06", 0.373], ["2024-01-07", 0.3829], ["2024-01-07", 0.3746], ["2024-01-07", 0.3511], ["2024-01-08", 0.3479], ["2024-01-08", 0.3207], ["2024-01-09", 0.3207], ["2024-01-10", 0.3221], ["2024-01-11", 0.3211], ["2024-01-11", 0.3211], ["2024-01-12", 0.3211]] | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hamas", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist_Party_of_the_Philippines", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2000/sep/29/israel", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Aqsa_Martyrs%27_Brigades", "https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2023/10/14/france-on-highest-alert-as-islamist-terrorism-strikes-schools-again_6172911_7.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ministry_of_Intelligence_(Iran", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hizbul_Mujahideen", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Popular_Front_for_the_Liberation_of_Palestine", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shining_Path", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Eastern_Islamic_Raiders%27_Front", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberation_Tigers_of_Tamil_Eelam", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinian_Islamic_Jihad", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurdistan_Freedom_Hawks", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Babbar_Khalsa", "https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/10/us-destroyer-shoots-down-cruise-missiles-iran-backed-houthis", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurdistan_Workers%27_Party", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Aqsa_Foundation", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolutionary_People%27s_Liberation_Party/Front", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_attacks_attributed_to_Abu_Nidal", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Liberation_Army_(Colombia", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Jama%27a_al-Islamiyya", "https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/local/dc/trump-church-photo-op-with-bible-offends-reverend/65-112709a1-f183-4466-aee5-1df6e8d3a510", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Popular_Front_for_the_Liberation_of_Palestine_%E2%80%93_General_Command", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/16/world/europe/brussels-shooting-act-of-terrorism.html?searchResultPosition=1"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3166 |
<p>NASA's Europa Clipper mission, scheduled to launch as soon as 10 October 2024, is designed, among other things, to investigate whether Jupiter's moon Europa could support life (<a href="https://europa.nasa.gov/mission/about/" target="_blank">NASA - Europa Clipper</a>, <a href="https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/10/a-year-from-launch-the-europa-clipper-spacecraft-nears-finish-line/" target="_blank">Ars Technica</a>, <a href="https://phys.org/news/2023-12-europa-clipper-jupiter-moon-habitable.html" target="_blank">Phys.org</a>). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful center core stage separation (<a href="https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-heavy" target="_blank">SpaceX - Falcon Heavy</a>). The question would close early if NASA publicly announces that the mission will not be launched in the current planned launch window (<a href="https://www.thespacetechie.com/launch-window-when-to-launch-rocket/" target="_blank">Space Techie</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>
| None | Will NASA's Europa Clipper mission be launched successfully before 2 November 2024? | 2023-12-14 | [["2023-12-15", 0.67], ["2023-12-16", 0.835], ["2023-12-16", 0.59], ["2023-12-16", 0.5867], ["2023-12-16", 0.565], ["2023-12-17", 0.544], ["2023-12-17", 0.62], ["2023-12-17", 0.6243], ["2023-12-17", 0.6088], ["2023-12-17", 0.6078], ["2023-12-17", 0.6067], ["2023-12-18", 0.608], ["2023-12-18", 0.6209], ["2023-12-18", 0.6525], ["2023-12-18", 0.6608], ["2023-12-18", 0.6414], ["2023-12-18", 0.652], ["2023-12-19", 0.6836], ["2023-12-19", 0.6857], ["2023-12-20", 0.718], ["2023-12-21", 0.733], ["2023-12-22", 0.685], ["2023-12-22", 0.667], ["2023-12-22", 0.687], ["2023-12-22", 0.683], ["2023-12-22", 0.671], ["2023-12-23", 0.678], ["2023-12-24", 0.665], ["2023-12-25", 0.677], ["2023-12-25", 0.662], ["2023-12-26", 0.653], ["2023-12-26", 0.618], ["2023-12-27", 0.633], ["2023-12-27", 0.637], ["2024-01-01", 0.5973], ["2024-01-02", 0.5864], ["2024-01-02", 0.6373], ["2024-01-04", 0.6382], ["2024-01-09", 0.585], ["2024-01-10", 0.5733], ["2024-01-11", 0.5742], ["2024-01-12", 0.5725], ["2024-01-12", 0.5725]] | ["https://europa.nasa.gov/", "https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasa-shares-progress-toward-early-artemis-moon-missions-with-crew/", "https://europa.nasa.gov/spacecraft/assembly/", "https://europa.nasa.gov/mission/science/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jupiter_Icy_Moons_Explorer", "https://www.esa.int/ESA_Multimedia/Images/2022/06/Juice_solar_array_deployment_test", "https://europa.nasa.gov/spacecraft/instruments/#otp_assembly_status", "https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/10/a-year-from-launch-the-europa-clipper-spacecraft-nears-finish-line/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3027 | <p>"Chevron deference" is among the most important principles in administrative law in the US, though it has faced a great deal of criticism (<a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/chevron_deference" target="_blank">Cornell - Chevron Deference</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/01/supreme-court-chevron-doctrine-climate-change-00094670" target="_blank">Politico</a>). Fishing companies, including Loper Bright Enterprises, sued the federal government over an administrative rule requiring them to help fund a monitoring program, and appealed to the Supreme Court after losing in both district and circuit courts (<a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2023/22-451" target="_blank">Oyez</a>). The fishing companies have asked if Chevron should be overruled or clarified as to statutory silence on certain matters (<a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/loper-bright-enterprises-v-raimondo/" target="_blank">SCOTUSblog</a>, <a href="https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2023/05/chevron-deference-running-on-fumes" target="_blank">Holland & Knight</a>). A mere clarification under the existing Chevron framework would not count. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2023 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | In Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo, will the Supreme Court explicitly overrule Chevron U.S.A. v. Natural Resources Defense Council (Chevron), which requires courts to defer to federal agency interpretations of statutes? | 2023-09-21 | [["2023-09-22", 1.0], ["2023-09-22", 0.98], ["2023-09-22", 0.8867], ["2023-09-23", 0.74], ["2023-09-23", 0.738], ["2023-09-23", 0.7817], ["2023-09-23", 0.67], ["2023-09-23", 0.6714], ["2023-09-23", 0.6788], ["2023-09-23", 0.7144], ["2023-09-24", 0.7122], ["2023-09-24", 0.706], ["2023-09-24", 0.7145], ["2023-09-24", 0.6758], ["2023-09-25", 0.6738], ["2023-09-25", 0.6854], ["2023-09-25", 0.68], ["2023-09-25", 0.6793], ["2023-09-25", 0.5977], ["2023-09-26", 0.567], ["2023-09-26", 0.597], ["2023-09-27", 0.557], ["2023-09-27", 0.576], ["2023-09-27", 0.59], ["2023-09-27", 0.578], ["2023-09-27", 0.478], ["2023-09-27", 0.413], ["2023-09-27", 0.338], ["2023-09-27", 0.38], ["2023-09-27", 0.39], ["2023-09-28", 0.44], ["2023-09-28", 0.4483], ["2023-09-29", 0.414], ["2023-10-01", 0.429], ["2023-10-02", 0.424], ["2023-10-02", 0.406], ["2023-10-02", 0.394], ["2023-10-03", 0.389], ["2023-10-03", 0.397], ["2023-10-03", 0.492], ["2023-10-04", 0.481], ["2023-10-05", 0.475], ["2023-10-05", 0.488], ["2023-10-05", 0.541], ["2023-10-06", 0.542], ["2023-10-09", 0.555], ["2023-10-12", 0.555], ["2023-10-12", 0.556], ["2023-10-12", 0.531], ["2023-10-15", 0.53], ["2023-10-18", 0.517], ["2023-10-21", 0.517], ["2023-10-22", 0.545], ["2023-10-22", 0.551], ["2023-10-26", 0.549], ["2023-10-27", 0.549], ["2023-10-28", 0.549], ["2023-11-01", 0.549], ["2023-11-03", 0.549], ["2023-11-08", 0.549], ["2023-11-13", 0.551], ["2023-11-17", 0.5373], ["2023-11-20", 0.5373], ["2023-11-27", 0.5545], ["2023-11-27", 0.5618], ["2023-11-27", 0.5618], ["2023-11-27", 0.5618], ["2023-12-07", 0.5618], ["2023-12-11", 0.5636], ["2023-12-13", 0.5864], ["2023-12-14", 0.5864], ["2023-12-23", 0.5864], ["2023-12-24", 0.5973], ["2023-12-25", 0.5991], ["2024-01-01", 0.5492], ["2024-01-04", 0.5492], ["2024-01-08", 0.5517], ["2024-01-09", 0.5517], ["2024-01-12", 0.5517]] | ["https://www.yalejreg.com/nc/judge-amy-coney-barrett-on-statutory-interpretation-textualism-precedent-judicial-restraint-and-the-future-of-chevron-by-evan-bernick/", "https://digitalcommons.law.uga.edu/fac_pm/291/", "https://ogletree.com/insights-resources/blog-posts/more-trouble-for-chevron-deference/", "http://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/22/22-451/249633/20221209162017525_Loper%20Bright_Final%20Brief.pdf", "https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3926726", "https://digitalcommons.law.uga.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1296&context=fac_pm", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/samuel-alito-the-supreme-courts-plain-spoken-defender-precedent-ethics-originalism-5e3e9a7"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3049 | <p>Azerbaijan's ultimate conquest of Nagorno-Karabakh, a region in Azerbaijan with an ethnic Armenian majority, in September 2023 has put great pressure on the government in Yerevan (<a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/azerbaijan-nagorno-karabakh-catastrophe-fires-anger-armenia-leader-nikol-pashinyan/" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/30/more-than-80-percent-of-nagorno-karabakhs-people-have-fled-armenia-govt" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>, <a href="https://news.am/eng/news/784555.html" target="_blank">NEWS.am</a>). Pashinyan staying on in a caretaker prime minister role subsequent with his resignation as prime minister would still count as Pashinyan ceasing to be prime minister (<a href="https://www.president.am/en/constitution-2015/" target="_blank">Constitution of Armenia</a>, see Article 149, <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20210425-armenian-prime-minister-pashinyan-announces-his-resignation-to-enable-snap-polls" target="_blank">France 24</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | Will Nikol Pashinyan cease to be the prime minister of Armenia before 6 February 2024? | 2023-10-05 | [["2023-10-06", 0.0], ["2023-10-06", 0.125], ["2023-10-06", 0.2], ["2023-10-06", 0.315], ["2023-10-07", 0.2875], ["2023-10-07", 0.23], ["2023-10-07", 0.2917], ["2023-10-07", 0.35], ["2023-10-08", 0.3375], ["2023-10-08", 0.3278], ["2023-10-08", 0.305], ["2023-10-09", 0.2791], ["2023-10-09", 0.2808], ["2023-10-09", 0.2767], ["2023-10-09", 0.2683], ["2023-10-09", 0.2938], ["2023-10-11", 0.362], ["2023-10-12", 0.402], ["2023-10-12", 0.393], ["2023-10-13", 0.392], ["2023-10-14", 0.393], ["2023-10-15", 0.373], ["2023-10-15", 0.378], ["2023-10-18", 0.388], ["2023-10-19", 0.386], ["2023-10-20", 0.386], ["2023-10-20", 0.396], ["2023-10-22", 0.398], ["2023-10-23", 0.4], ["2023-10-23", 0.36], ["2023-10-27", 0.372], ["2023-10-28", 0.382], ["2023-10-28", 0.378], ["2023-10-29", 0.378], ["2023-10-31", 0.313], ["2023-10-31", 0.318], ["2023-11-01", 0.328], ["2023-11-05", 0.316], ["2023-11-08", 0.31], ["2023-11-08", 0.3], ["2023-11-11", 0.284], ["2023-11-11", 0.324], ["2023-11-11", 0.314], ["2023-11-11", 0.31], ["2023-11-11", 0.408], ["2023-11-12", 0.417], ["2023-11-13", 0.412], ["2023-11-17", 0.415], ["2023-11-19", 0.41], ["2023-11-25", 0.416], ["2023-11-26", 0.414], ["2023-11-27", 0.434], ["2023-11-29", 0.436], ["2023-11-30", 0.425], ["2023-12-03", 0.432], ["2023-12-10", 0.425], ["2023-12-10", 0.413], ["2023-12-12", 0.411], ["2023-12-12", 0.386], ["2023-12-13", 0.359], ["2023-12-15", 0.348], ["2023-12-17", 0.346], ["2023-12-18", 0.336], ["2023-12-18", 0.335], ["2023-12-19", 0.265], ["2023-12-19", 0.245], ["2023-12-19", 0.215], ["2023-12-19", 0.215], ["2023-12-20", 0.225], ["2023-12-26", 0.182], ["2023-12-26", 0.172], ["2023-12-28", 0.169], ["2023-12-29", 0.158], ["2024-01-01", 0.2], ["2024-01-02", 0.193], ["2024-01-02", 0.192], ["2024-01-03", 0.19], ["2024-01-07", 0.18], ["2024-01-07", 0.176], ["2024-01-08", 0.174], ["2024-01-09", 0.173], ["2024-01-11", 0.169], ["2024-01-12", 0.16], ["2024-01-12", 0.16]] | ["https://www.google.com/search?q=Nikol+Pashinyan+reuters&sca_esv=571840155&rlz=1C1CHBF_enCA910CA910&sxsrf=AM9HkKnw7-jxjqVmQbNpUc-xmzzWTcNH5A%3A1696840894279&ei=vrwjZbfPEPqV0PEPg7WtiAY&ved=0ahUKEwi3pvn1yOiBAxX6CjQIHYNaC2EQ4dUDCBA&uact=5&oq=Nikol+Pashinyan+reuters&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiF05pa29sIFBhc2hpbnlhbiByZXV0ZXJzMgQQIxgnSPIKUJsEWIYKcAF4AZABAJgBWqABhQWqAQE4uAEDyAEA-AEBwgIHECMYsAMYJ8ICChAAGEcY1gQYsAPCAgUQABiABMICChAAGIAEGBQYhwLCAgUQLhiABMICBhAAGBYYHsICCBAAGIoFGIYD4gMEGAAgQYgGAZAGCg&sclient=gws-wiz-serp"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3041 | <p>In November 2022, France announced that it was halting ODA to Mali due to the military government's ties to the Russian Wagner Group (<a href="https://www.rfi.fr/en/africa/20221119-france-halts-development-aid-to-mali-over-wagner-russia-paramilitaries" target="_blank">Radio France Internationale</a>, <a href="https://www.afd.fr/en/page-region-pays/mali" target="_blank">Agence Française de Développement</a>, <a href="https://www.rfi.fr/en/africa/20230526-six-months-mali-banned-french-funding-for-ngos-aid-groups" target="_blank">Radio France Internationale</a>). The date an announced resumption would take effect is immaterial, and conditional announcements (e.g., if/when the country returns to civilian rule) would not count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | Will France publicly announce that it will resume providing official development assistance (ODA) to Mali before 1 January 2025? | 2023-09-29 | [["2023-09-29", 0.0], ["2023-09-29", 0.075], ["2023-09-29", 0.05], ["2023-09-29", 0.0875], ["2023-09-29", 0.132], ["2023-09-30", 0.16], ["2023-09-30", 0.1586], ["2023-09-30", 0.1614], ["2023-09-30", 0.1538], ["2023-09-30", 0.1367], ["2023-10-01", 0.123], ["2023-10-01", 0.1164], ["2023-10-01", 0.13], ["2023-10-01", 0.1338], ["2023-10-02", 0.1379], ["2023-10-02", 0.1325], ["2023-10-03", 0.0982], ["2023-10-03", 0.141], ["2023-10-04", 0.136], ["2023-10-05", 0.161], ["2023-10-07", 0.181], ["2023-10-09", 0.192], ["2023-10-10", 0.214], ["2023-10-11", 0.209], ["2023-10-18", 0.19], ["2023-10-19", 0.19], ["2023-10-23", 0.187], ["2023-10-25", 0.206], ["2023-10-28", 0.206], ["2023-10-31", 0.186], ["2023-11-02", 0.196], ["2023-11-05", 0.186], ["2023-11-07", 0.1927], ["2023-11-07", 0.1882], ["2023-11-09", 0.1891], ["2023-11-12", 0.1873], ["2023-11-20", 0.1864], ["2023-11-27", 0.1733], ["2023-11-27", 0.1733], ["2023-11-29", 0.1733], ["2023-12-01", 0.1467], ["2023-12-04", 0.1433], ["2023-12-04", 0.135], ["2023-12-07", 0.1333], ["2023-12-10", 0.1325], ["2023-12-10", 0.1258], ["2023-12-12", 0.1258], ["2023-12-13", 0.1454], ["2023-12-15", 0.1454], ["2023-12-16", 0.1392], ["2023-12-18", 0.1238], ["2023-12-19", 0.1238], ["2023-12-21", 0.12], ["2023-12-28", 0.1162], ["2023-12-31", 0.1046], ["2023-12-31", 0.1131], ["2023-12-31", 0.1023], ["2024-01-01", 0.0985], ["2024-01-01", 0.0854], ["2024-01-03", 0.0838], ["2024-01-05", 0.0831], ["2024-01-07", 0.0792], ["2024-01-12", 0.07], ["2024-01-12", 0.07]] | ["https://www.thecitizen.co.tz/tanzania/news/africa/mali-niger-burkina-top-diplomats-back-confederation-4451768", "https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-talks-security-with-malian-leader-third-phone-call-two-months-2023-10-10/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3119 | <p>The Quad countries are the US, India, Japan, and Australia (<a href="https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/quad-indo-pacific-what-know" target="_blank">Council on Foreign Relations</a>). Tensions continue in the South China Sea and elsewhere, with increasing fears of some form of military confrontation (<a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/6988468.html" target="_blank">Voice of America</a>, <a href="https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/china-india-border-2/" target="_blank">GIS</a>). For the purposes of this question, drones may be considered part of "forces" if so claimed by the accused. Accusations of "warning shots" being fired would count (e.g., guns or missiles). An accusation of a vessel or aircraft deliberately ramming another would count, but accidental collisions would not. Cyberattacks and the use of directed-energy weapons (e.g., microwaves, sonic weapons) would not count, and an accusation of the mere use of blunt instruments as weapons, such as clubs and fists, in hand-to-hand fighting would not count. An accusation by one Quad country against another Quad country would not count, and both the accused use and the accusation must occur during the question's open period to count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Will a Quad country or the People's Republic of China publicly accuse the other of using a weapon against its national military, militia, and/or law enforcement forces before 1 October 2024? | 2023-11-16 | [["2023-11-17", 0.8], ["2023-11-17", 0.44], ["2023-11-17", 0.3533], ["2023-11-17", 0.29], ["2023-11-17", 0.262], ["2023-11-17", 0.25], ["2023-11-17", 0.2214], ["2023-11-17", 0.195], ["2023-11-18", 0.1988], ["2023-11-18", 0.1989], ["2023-11-18", 0.194], ["2023-11-18", 0.2282], ["2023-11-18", 0.2092], ["2023-11-18", 0.1962], ["2023-11-18", 0.24], ["2023-11-18", 0.2273], ["2023-11-18", 0.2287], ["2023-11-18", 0.2175], ["2023-11-18", 0.2047], ["2023-11-18", 0.1933], ["2023-11-19", 0.1884], ["2023-11-19", 0.214], ["2023-11-19", 0.2095], ["2023-11-19", 0.2455], ["2023-11-19", 0.2783], ["2023-11-19", 0.2771], ["2023-11-19", 0.298], ["2023-11-19", 0.2919], ["2023-11-19", 0.283], ["2023-11-19", 0.2782], ["2023-11-19", 0.3014], ["2023-11-19", 0.3021], ["2023-11-19", 0.2987], ["2023-11-19", 0.3074], ["2023-11-19", 0.3047], ["2023-11-19", 0.2955], ["2023-11-19", 0.2965], ["2023-11-19", 0.2986], ["2023-11-20", 0.3025], ["2023-11-20", 0.3011], ["2023-11-20", 0.2958], ["2023-11-20", 0.3168], ["2023-11-20", 0.3182], ["2023-11-20", 0.3261], ["2023-11-20", 0.33], ["2023-11-20", 0.3218], ["2023-11-20", 0.3138], ["2023-11-20", 0.3283], ["2023-11-20", 0.3205], ["2023-11-20", 0.3177], ["2023-11-20", 0.3105], ["2023-11-20", 0.3191], ["2023-11-20", 0.3133], ["2023-11-20", 0.3215], ["2023-11-20", 0.3304], ["2023-11-20", 0.3237], ["2023-11-20", 0.3252], ["2023-11-20", 0.332], ["2023-11-20", 0.3344], ["2023-11-20", 0.3356], ["2023-11-21", 0.3348], ["2023-11-21", 0.3414], ["2023-11-21", 0.335], ["2023-11-21", 0.3281], ["2023-11-21", 0.3275], ["2023-11-21", 0.3416], ["2023-11-21", 0.3429], ["2023-11-21", 0.3569], ["2023-11-21", 0.3655], ["2023-11-21", 0.3662], ["2023-11-21", 0.3667], ["2023-11-21", 0.3717], ["2023-11-22", 0.3782], ["2023-11-22", 0.3917], ["2023-11-22", 0.3906], ["2023-11-22", 0.3906], ["2023-11-22", 0.3838], ["2023-11-22", 0.3554], ["2023-11-22", 0.3567], ["2023-11-22", 0.3565], ["2023-11-22", 0.3536], ["2023-11-23", 0.3354], ["2023-11-23", 0.3494], ["2023-11-23", 0.3453], ["2023-11-23", 0.3533], ["2023-11-23", 0.3533], ["2023-11-23", 0.3548], ["2023-11-23", 0.3621], ["2023-11-23", 0.3706], ["2023-11-23", 0.3688], ["2023-11-23", 0.368], ["2023-11-23", 0.3561], ["2023-11-24", 0.3567], ["2023-11-24", 0.3452], ["2023-11-24", 0.3635], ["2023-11-24", 0.3609], ["2023-11-24", 0.3641], ["2023-11-25", 0.3719], ["2023-11-25", 0.3636], ["2023-11-25", 0.3867], ["2023-11-25", 0.39], ["2023-11-25", 0.39], ["2023-11-26", 0.3976], ["2023-11-26", 0.3906], ["2023-11-26", 0.39], ["2023-11-26", 0.3817], ["2023-11-26", 0.3903], ["2023-11-26", 0.385], ["2023-11-27", 0.3717], ["2023-11-27", 0.3606], ["2023-11-27", 0.3549], ["2023-11-27", 0.3427], ["2023-11-27", 0.3454], ["2023-11-27", 0.3232], ["2023-11-27", 0.3226], ["2023-11-27", 0.3224], ["2023-11-27", 0.3221], ["2023-11-27", 0.3184], ["2023-11-27", 0.3066], ["2023-11-27", 0.309], ["2023-11-27", 0.3092], ["2023-11-27", 0.3077], ["2023-11-28", 0.3025], ["2023-11-28", 0.3013], ["2023-11-28", 0.32], ["2023-11-28", 0.3122], ["2023-11-28", 0.3183], ["2023-11-28", 0.3183], ["2023-11-29", 0.3179], ["2023-11-29", 0.3229], ["2023-11-29", 0.3148], ["2023-11-29", 0.3109], ["2023-11-29", 0.3135], ["2023-11-29", 0.3274], ["2023-11-29", 0.3225], ["2023-11-30", 0.3259], ["2023-12-01", 0.3248], ["2023-12-01", 0.3098], ["2023-12-01", 0.3029], ["2023-12-01", 0.2969], ["2023-12-02", 0.2969], ["2023-12-02", 0.2996], ["2023-12-02", 0.2937], ["2023-12-02", 0.2891], ["2023-12-03", 0.2913], ["2023-12-03", 0.292], ["2023-12-04", 0.2943], ["2023-12-04", 0.2926], ["2023-12-05", 0.2957], ["2023-12-05", 0.2938], ["2023-12-05", 0.2852], ["2023-12-05", 0.2873], ["2023-12-05", 0.2696], ["2023-12-06", 0.2827], ["2023-12-06", 0.2735], ["2023-12-06", 0.2704], ["2023-12-07", 0.2644], ["2023-12-07", 0.2692], ["2023-12-07", 0.2692], ["2023-12-08", 0.2794], ["2023-12-08", 0.2631], ["2023-12-08", 0.2635], ["2023-12-08", 0.2582], ["2023-12-09", 0.2484], ["2023-12-09", 0.2494], ["2023-12-09", 0.2638], ["2023-12-10", 0.2637], ["2023-12-10", 0.2579], ["2023-12-10", 0.2637], ["2023-12-10", 0.279], ["2023-12-10", 0.2775], ["2023-12-10", 0.2772], ["2023-12-11", 0.296], ["2023-12-11", 0.296], ["2023-12-11", 0.2952], ["2023-12-11", 0.2924], ["2023-12-11", 0.3026], ["2023-12-12", 0.3089], ["2023-12-12", 0.3089], ["2023-12-13", 0.3082], ["2023-12-13", 0.3138], ["2023-12-14", 0.3138], ["2023-12-14", 0.3211], ["2023-12-14", 0.322], ["2023-12-14", 0.3255], ["2023-12-14", 0.3202], ["2023-12-15", 0.3189], ["2023-12-15", 0.3242], ["2023-12-16", 0.3221], ["2023-12-16", 0.3203], ["2023-12-17", 0.3207], ["2023-12-17", 0.3207], ["2023-12-17", 0.3216], ["2023-12-18", 0.3161], ["2023-12-18", 0.2992], ["2023-12-18", 0.2997], ["2023-12-19", 0.3047], ["2023-12-19", 0.3047], ["2023-12-19", 0.2997], ["2023-12-19", 0.299], ["2023-12-20", 0.3084], ["2023-12-20", 0.3072], ["2023-12-20", 0.3072], ["2023-12-20", 0.3053], ["2023-12-20", 0.2997], ["2023-12-20", 0.2997], ["2023-12-21", 0.31], ["2023-12-21", 0.317], ["2023-12-21", 0.3083], ["2023-12-21", 0.3081], ["2023-12-21", 0.3056], ["2023-12-21", 0.3064], ["2023-12-22", 0.3086], ["2023-12-22", 0.3077], ["2023-12-23", 0.3045], ["2023-12-23", 0.3067], ["2023-12-23", 0.3119], ["2023-12-23", 0.3119], ["2023-12-23", 0.3118], ["2023-12-24", 0.3075], ["2023-12-24", 0.3074], ["2023-12-25", 0.3045], ["2023-12-25", 0.3042], ["2023-12-26", 0.3067], ["2023-12-26", 0.3024], ["2023-12-26", 0.2957], ["2023-12-26", 0.2925], ["2023-12-26", 0.2896], ["2023-12-26", 0.2835], ["2023-12-26", 0.2903], ["2023-12-26", 0.2932], ["2023-12-26", 0.2919], ["2023-12-26", 0.2939], ["2023-12-26", 0.3074], ["2023-12-27", 0.3171], ["2023-12-27", 0.3141], ["2023-12-27", 0.3186], ["2023-12-27", 0.3246], ["2023-12-28", 0.3211], ["2023-12-29", 0.3194], ["2023-12-29", 0.3178], ["2023-12-29", 0.3178], ["2023-12-29", 0.3167], ["2023-12-30", 0.3131], ["2023-12-30", 0.3124], ["2023-12-30", 0.3104], ["2023-12-31", 0.2982], ["2023-12-31", 0.2976], ["2023-12-31", 0.3056], ["2023-12-31", 0.3028], ["2023-12-31", 0.3014], ["2023-12-31", 0.2889], ["2023-12-31", 0.2878], ["2023-12-31", 0.2901], ["2024-01-01", 0.2895], ["2024-01-01", 0.2895], ["2024-01-01", 0.289], ["2024-01-01", 0.2888], ["2024-01-01", 0.2981], ["2024-01-01", 0.2979], ["2024-01-01", 0.2968], ["2024-01-01", 0.3044], ["2024-01-01", 0.3009], ["2024-01-01", 0.3], ["2024-01-01", 0.3044], ["2024-01-02", 0.3094], ["2024-01-02", 0.3069], ["2024-01-02", 0.3068], ["2024-01-02", 0.3054], ["2024-01-02", 0.3038], ["2024-01-02", 0.3001], ["2024-01-02", 0.3021], ["2024-01-02", 0.295], ["2024-01-02", 0.2932], ["2024-01-02", 0.2926], ["2024-01-02", 0.2905], ["2024-01-03", 0.2905], ["2024-01-03", 0.2848], ["2024-01-03", 0.2838], ["2024-01-03", 0.2776], ["2024-01-03", 0.2771], ["2024-01-03", 0.2837], ["2024-01-03", 0.2827], ["2024-01-04", 0.2833], ["2024-01-04", 0.283], ["2024-01-04", 0.2831], ["2024-01-04", 0.2831], ["2024-01-04", 0.2845], ["2024-01-04", 0.2833], ["2024-01-04", 0.2832], ["2024-01-04", 0.2832], ["2024-01-04", 0.2811], ["2024-01-05", 0.2828], ["2024-01-05", 0.284], ["2024-01-05", 0.2867], ["2024-01-06", 0.2873], ["2024-01-06", 0.2908], ["2024-01-06", 0.2942], ["2024-01-06", 0.2918], ["2024-01-07", 0.2996], ["2024-01-07", 0.304], ["2024-01-07", 0.3009], ["2024-01-07", 0.299], ["2024-01-07", 0.3066], ["2024-01-08", 0.3058], ["2024-01-08", 0.3047], ["2024-01-08", 0.3041], ["2024-01-08", 0.3034], ["2024-01-08", 0.3023], ["2024-01-09", 0.3029], ["2024-01-09", 0.2968], ["2024-01-09", 0.2963], ["2024-01-10", 0.2883], ["2024-01-10", 0.2889], ["2024-01-10", 0.2888], ["2024-01-11", 0.2883], ["2024-01-11", 0.2883], ["2024-01-11", 0.2883], ["2024-01-11", 0.2863], ["2024-01-12", 0.2801], ["2024-01-12", 0.2772], ["2024-01-12", 0.2765], ["2024-01-13", 0.2759], ["2024-01-13", 0.2759]] | ["https://www.military.com/daily-news/2023/10/17/pentagon-declassifies-evidence-of-chinas-increased-harassment-of-us-forces-western-pacific.html", "https://chrisblattman.com/blog/2022/10/26/the-prospects-for-war-with-china-why-i-see-a-serious-chance-of-world-war-iii-in-the-next-decade/", "https://archive.ph/2seE2", "https://www.defensenews.com/air/2022/02/22/australia-accuses-china-of-using-military-grade-laser-against-p-8a-aircraft/", "https://archive.ph/cDT3W", "https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/why-i-think-an-invasion-of-taiwan", "https://americanmilitarynews.com/2023/12/us-navy-responds-to-chinas-accusations/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-says-japanese-vessels-illegally-entered-territorial-waters-2023-12-10/", "https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-asia/india-china/334-thin-ice-himalayas-handling-india-china-border-dispute", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_China%E2%80%93India_skirmishes", "https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/trecms/pdf/AD1208420.pdf"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3183 | <p>While Donald Trump was facing various federal criminal charges as of December 2023, he had not been charged under 18 U.S.C. §2383, which provides criminal consequences for involvement in "rebellion or insurrection against the authority of the United States or the laws thereof" (<a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2383" target="_blank">Cornell - 18 U.S.C. §2383</a>, <a href="https://www.lawfaremedia.org/current-projects/the-trump-trials/trump-prosecuted-in-the-district-of-columbia/docket-watch-trump-prosecuted-in-dc" target="_blank">Lawfare</a>, <a href="https://politico.com/interactives/2023/trump-criminal-investigations-cases-tracker-list/" target="_blank">Politico</a>). The Colorado Supreme Court ruled that Trump was disqualified from being president under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment due to him having "engaged in insurrection or rebellion," a decision expected to be reviewed by the US Supreme Court (<a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/amendment-14/" target="_blank">Congress.gov - 14th Amendment</a>, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-colorado-supreme-court/" target="_blank">CBS News</a>, <a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/12/20/supreme-court-trump-cases-presidential-election" target="_blank">Axios</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Will Donald Trump be criminally charged under 18 U.S.C. §2383 (Rebellion or insurrection) before 13 July 2024? | 2023-12-28 | [["2023-12-29", 0.77], ["2023-12-29", 0.885], ["2023-12-29", 0.6567], ["2023-12-29", 0.5025], ["2023-12-29", 0.452], ["2023-12-29", 0.47], ["2023-12-29", 0.4086], ["2023-12-29", 0.3588], ["2023-12-29", 0.3244], ["2023-12-30", 0.372], ["2023-12-30", 0.4245], ["2023-12-30", 0.3427], ["2023-12-30", 0.3975], ["2023-12-30", 0.4323], ["2023-12-30", 0.4121], ["2023-12-30", 0.4047], ["2023-12-30", 0.3856], ["2023-12-30", 0.3953], ["2023-12-30", 0.3733], ["2023-12-30", 0.3711], ["2023-12-30", 0.3642], ["2023-12-30", 0.391], ["2023-12-30", 0.3835], ["2023-12-30", 0.3795], ["2023-12-30", 0.3623], ["2023-12-30", 0.3623], ["2023-12-30", 0.3683], ["2023-12-30", 0.355], ["2023-12-30", 0.3408], ["2023-12-30", 0.3354], ["2023-12-31", 0.3248], ["2023-12-31", 0.315], ["2023-12-31", 0.3132], ["2023-12-31", 0.3093], ["2023-12-31", 0.3023], ["2023-12-31", 0.2926], ["2023-12-31", 0.2834], ["2023-12-31", 0.283], ["2023-12-31", 0.2788], ["2023-12-31", 0.274], ["2023-12-31", 0.2737], ["2023-12-31", 0.2925], ["2023-12-31", 0.2675], ["2023-12-31", 0.2453], ["2023-12-31", 0.2414], ["2023-12-31", 0.2414], ["2023-12-31", 0.235], ["2023-12-31", 0.2367], ["2023-12-31", 0.232], ["2023-12-31", 0.2312], ["2023-12-31", 0.2305], ["2024-01-01", 0.2484], ["2024-01-01", 0.253], ["2024-01-01", 0.2473], ["2024-01-01", 0.2476], ["2024-01-01", 0.2472], ["2024-01-01", 0.2462], ["2024-01-01", 0.2469], ["2024-01-01", 0.2413], ["2024-01-01", 0.2506], ["2024-01-01", 0.2586], ["2024-01-01", 0.2565], ["2024-01-01", 0.256], ["2024-01-01", 0.2448], ["2024-01-01", 0.2442], ["2024-01-02", 0.2068], ["2024-01-02", 0.206], ["2024-01-02", 0.2286], ["2024-01-02", 0.2224], ["2024-01-02", 0.2261], ["2024-01-02", 0.2244], ["2024-01-02", 0.2205], ["2024-01-02", 0.222], ["2024-01-02", 0.242], ["2024-01-02", 0.241], ["2024-01-02", 0.259], ["2024-01-03", 0.2824], ["2024-01-03", 0.3059], ["2024-01-03", 0.3059], ["2024-01-04", 0.3554], ["2024-01-04", 0.3268], ["2024-01-04", 0.3268], ["2024-01-04", 0.3243], ["2024-01-05", 0.3261], ["2024-01-05", 0.3321], ["2024-01-05", 0.3259], ["2024-01-07", 0.3234], ["2024-01-07", 0.313], ["2024-01-08", 0.3157], ["2024-01-08", 0.3143], ["2024-01-08", 0.2983], ["2024-01-09", 0.2837], ["2024-01-09", 0.2837], ["2024-01-10", 0.2637], ["2024-01-10", 0.259], ["2024-01-12", 0.2583], ["2024-01-12", 0.286], ["2024-01-12", 0.264], ["2024-01-12", 0.264]] | ["https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/25/world/middleeast/israel-gaza-death-toll.html?unlocked_article_code=1.ME0.oqdq.PM9a4RaY62bc&smid=nytcore-android-share", "http://www.nytimes.com.it/", "https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution-conan/article-3/section-3/clause-1/the-burr-trial"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3184 | <p>On 18 December 2023, NSC and US Steel announced the former would acquire the latter in an all-cash deal valued at about $15 billion, which the two expect "to close in the second or third quarter of calendar year 2024" subject to US Steel shareholder approval (<a href="https://www.ussteel.com/newsroom/-/blogs/nippon-steel-corporation-nsc-to-acquire-u-s-steel-moving-forward-together-as-the-best-steelmaker-with-world-leading-capabilities-" target="_blank">US Steel</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-67783057" target="_blank">BBC</a>). The question would close early if both NSC and US Steel announce that they have called off the acquisition.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Will Nippon Steel Corporation's (NSC's) acquisition of US Steel close before 1 January 2025? | 2023-12-28 | [["2023-12-29", 1.0], ["2023-12-29", 0.875], ["2023-12-29", 0.7], ["2023-12-30", 0.6975], ["2023-12-30", 0.558], ["2023-12-30", 0.6], ["2023-12-30", 0.6214], ["2023-12-30", 0.6688], ["2023-12-30", 0.6778], ["2023-12-30", 0.67], ["2023-12-31", 0.6455], ["2023-12-31", 0.6167], ["2023-12-31", 0.6123], ["2023-12-31", 0.6286], ["2023-12-31", 0.6221], ["2023-12-31", 0.6407], ["2023-12-31", 0.6131], ["2023-12-31", 0.6076], ["2023-12-31", 0.5961], ["2023-12-31", 0.5805], ["2024-01-01", 0.5515], ["2024-01-01", 0.5562], ["2024-01-01", 0.5582], ["2024-01-01", 0.56], ["2024-01-01", 0.5596], ["2024-01-01", 0.5696], ["2024-01-01", 0.5548], ["2024-01-01", 0.5581], ["2024-01-01", 0.5559], ["2024-01-02", 0.5388], ["2024-01-02", 0.5408], ["2024-01-02", 0.4983], ["2024-01-02", 0.4814], ["2024-01-02", 0.5017], ["2024-01-02", 0.5121], ["2024-01-02", 0.507], ["2024-01-03", 0.4963], ["2024-01-03", 0.4805], ["2024-01-03", 0.4684], ["2024-01-04", 0.495], ["2024-01-04", 0.4821], ["2024-01-04", 0.5321], ["2024-01-04", 0.5344], ["2024-01-04", 0.5444], ["2024-01-04", 0.5438], ["2024-01-06", 0.5319], ["2024-01-07", 0.5663], ["2024-01-09", 0.5681], ["2024-01-09", 0.5681], ["2024-01-11", 0.5681], ["2024-01-11", 0.5681], ["2024-01-12", 0.5681]] | ["https://www.nipponsteel.com/common/secure/en/ir/library/pdf/20231218_200.pdf", "https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/us-steel-soars-on-15b-accord-to-be-bought-by-japans-nippon-steel", "https://www.investopedia.com/us-steel-sold-to-nippon-steel-8417283", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/18/business/us-steel-nippon-steel-deal.html"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3023 | <p>James Freed, a city manager in Port Huron, MI, blocked Lindke from his Facebook page after Lindke posted disapproving comments about policy decisions [by Freed], and Lindke sued (<a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2023/22-611" target="_blank">Oyez</a>). After both the district court and the 6th Circuit Court of Appeals ruled for Freed, Lindke appealed to the Supreme Court, which agreed to hear the case (<a href="https://www.abajournal.com/news/article/supreme-court-to-decide-when-public-officials-can-block-people-from-personal-social-media-accounts" target="_blank">ABA Journal</a>, <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/lindke-v-freed/" target="_blank">SCOTUSblog</a>). The outcome of O'Connor-Ratcliff v. Garnier, a similar case with oral arguments scheduled for the same day as Lindke v. Freed, is immaterial (<a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_calendars/MonthlyArgumentCalNovember2023.pdf" target="_blank">Supreme Court - Argument Calendar</a>). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2023 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | In Lindke v. Freed, will the Supreme Court rule that City Manager James Freed violated Kevin Lindke's First Amendment rights by blocking Lindke on his Facebook page? | 2023-09-21 | [["2023-09-22", 1.0], ["2023-09-22", 0.55], ["2023-09-22", 0.65], ["2023-09-23", 0.66], ["2023-09-23", 0.495], ["2023-09-23", 0.516], ["2023-09-23", 0.518], ["2023-09-23", 0.514], ["2023-09-23", 0.5383], ["2023-09-23", 0.4614], ["2023-09-23", 0.4038], ["2023-09-24", 0.3756], ["2023-09-24", 0.3711], ["2023-09-24", 0.3678], ["2023-09-24", 0.357], ["2023-09-24", 0.3791], ["2023-09-24", 0.3675], ["2023-09-25", 0.3392], ["2023-09-25", 0.3354], ["2023-09-25", 0.3293], ["2023-09-26", 0.2854], ["2023-09-26", 0.315], ["2023-09-26", 0.2864], ["2023-09-26", 0.2821], ["2023-09-26", 0.2508], ["2023-09-26", 0.265], ["2023-09-26", 0.2592], ["2023-09-26", 0.2623], ["2023-09-27", 0.3755], ["2023-09-27", 0.374], ["2023-09-27", 0.3418], ["2023-09-27", 0.3175], ["2023-09-28", 0.353], ["2023-09-28", 0.3209], ["2023-09-28", 0.3209], ["2023-09-28", 0.3618], ["2023-09-29", 0.358], ["2023-09-29", 0.318], ["2023-09-30", 0.306], ["2023-10-02", 0.31], ["2023-10-03", 0.34], ["2023-10-03", 0.344], ["2023-10-05", 0.34], ["2023-10-05", 0.253], ["2023-10-10", 0.244], ["2023-10-11", 0.244], ["2023-10-14", 0.252], ["2023-10-18", 0.252], ["2023-10-22", 0.259], ["2023-10-22", 0.259], ["2023-10-23", 0.287], ["2023-10-24", 0.29], ["2023-11-01", 0.321], ["2023-11-03", 0.321], ["2023-11-04", 0.2918], ["2023-11-05", 0.33], ["2023-11-07", 0.3327], ["2023-11-08", 0.3327], ["2023-11-11", 0.2873], ["2023-12-02", 0.2873], ["2023-12-03", 0.3091], ["2023-12-13", 0.2545], ["2023-12-22", 0.2545], ["2023-12-31", 0.2527], ["2024-01-01", 0.2317], ["2024-01-01", 0.2317], ["2024-01-05", 0.2283], ["2024-01-07", 0.2225], ["2024-01-12", 0.2225]] | ["https://www.oyez.org/cases/2023/22-324", "https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/20pdf/20-197_5ie6.pdf", "https://www.natlawreview.com/article/daylight-between-sixth-and-fifth-circuits-social-media-censorship-cases", "https://www.americanbar.org/groups/crsj/publications/crsj-featured-articles/lindke-v-freed/", "https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-supreme-court-decide-if-public-officials-can-block-critics-social-media-2023-04-24/", "https://www.military.com/daily-news/2022/08/09/air-force-allows-facebook-comments-criticizing-service-online-after-veterans-lawsuit.html", "https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/biden-fifth-circuit-social-media-first-amendment-rcna104435", "https://ballotpedia.org/SCOTUS_case_reversal_rates_(2007_-_Present"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | 2024-01-07 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3177 |
<p>Barbie received the most Golden Globe nominations for 2024 with nine (three in the same category of Best Original Song - Motion Picture), and Oppenheimer came in second with eight (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-67646600" target="_blank">BBC</a>). The awards ceremony is scheduled for 7 January 2024 (<a href="https://goldenglobes.com/" target="_blank">Golden Globes</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2024-01-08 | Will "Barbie" win more Golden Globes than "Oppenheimer?" | 2023-12-21 | [["2023-12-22", 0.1], ["2023-12-22", 0.15], ["2023-12-22", 0.45], ["2023-12-22", 0.55], ["2023-12-22", 0.5275], ["2023-12-22", 0.492], ["2023-12-22", 0.41], ["2023-12-22", 0.4086], ["2023-12-22", 0.4825], ["2023-12-23", 0.4333], ["2023-12-23", 0.42], ["2023-12-23", 0.4727], ["2023-12-23", 0.5083], ["2023-12-23", 0.5462], ["2023-12-24", 0.5336], ["2023-12-24", 0.5513], ["2023-12-25", 0.5169], ["2023-12-25", 0.5065], ["2023-12-25", 0.505], ["2023-12-25", 0.5117], ["2023-12-25", 0.4825], ["2023-12-26", 0.597], ["2023-12-26", 0.553], ["2023-12-26", 0.51], ["2023-12-26", 0.46], ["2023-12-26", 0.4364], ["2023-12-27", 0.4709], ["2023-12-27", 0.4525], ["2023-12-27", 0.4177], ["2023-12-27", 0.3892], ["2023-12-27", 0.3892], ["2023-12-27", 0.4131], ["2023-12-27", 0.43], ["2023-12-27", 0.4233], ["2023-12-27", 0.4125], ["2023-12-27", 0.4118], ["2023-12-28", 0.4659], ["2023-12-28", 0.4683], ["2023-12-29", 0.4594], ["2023-12-29", 0.4676], ["2023-12-29", 0.4573], ["2023-12-29", 0.4519], ["2023-12-30", 0.4487], ["2023-12-31", 0.432], ["2023-12-31", 0.4613], ["2024-01-01", 0.4325], ["2024-01-01", 0.4275], ["2024-01-01", 0.4181], ["2024-01-01", 0.4171], ["2024-01-01", 0.4118], ["2024-01-01", 0.4024], ["2024-01-01", 0.3759], ["2024-01-01", 0.3717], ["2024-01-02", 0.3967], ["2024-01-02", 0.3828], ["2024-01-02", 0.3905], ["2024-01-02", 0.4221], ["2024-01-03", 0.401], ["2024-01-03", 0.4005], ["2024-01-04", 0.415], ["2024-01-04", 0.3975], ["2024-01-04", 0.3855], ["2024-01-05", 0.381], ["2024-01-05", 0.3767], ["2024-01-05", 0.3571], ["2024-01-05", 0.341], ["2024-01-05", 0.341], ["2024-01-06", 0.3367], ["2024-01-06", 0.339], ["2024-01-06", 0.3381], ["2024-01-06", 0.3452], ["2024-01-06", 0.3438], ["2024-01-07", 0.3438]] | ["https://goldenglobes.com/voting-member/", "https://www.goldderby.com/article/2024/2024-golden-globes-predictions/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Globe_Awards"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3006 | <p>The CFPB has a unique funding mechanism among US regulatory agencies in that it requires no congressional appropriation of funds and its director determines the bureau's budget (<a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/LSB/LSB10891" target="_blank">Congressional Research Service</a>). The Fifth Circuit ruled that the mechanism violated the Appropriations Clause of the constitution and separation of powers, which the CFPB appealed to the Supreme Court (<a href="https://www.ca5.uscourts.gov/opinions/pub/21/21-50826-CV0.pdf" target="_blank">Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals</a>, <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/consumer-financial-protection-bureau-v-community-financial-services-association-of-america-limited/" target="_blank">SCOTUSblog</a>, <a href="https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2022/10/fifth-circuit-rules-cfpbs-selffunding-mechanism-is-unconstitutional" target="_blank">Holland & Knight</a>). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2023 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | In Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) v. Community Financial Services Association of America, Limited, will the Supreme Court rule that the funding mechanism for the CFPB is unconstitutional? | 2023-09-07 | [["2023-09-08", 0.7], ["2023-09-08", 0.775], ["2023-09-08", 0.8167], ["2023-09-08", 0.8], ["2023-09-08", 0.7975], ["2023-09-09", 0.818], ["2023-09-09", 0.83], ["2023-09-09", 0.832], ["2023-09-09", 0.7767], ["2023-09-09", 0.7943], ["2023-09-09", 0.8057], ["2023-09-09", 0.8086], ["2023-09-09", 0.8325], ["2023-09-09", 0.8233], ["2023-09-09", 0.816], ["2023-09-10", 0.8127], ["2023-09-10", 0.8145], ["2023-09-10", 0.8175], ["2023-09-10", 0.8238], ["2023-09-10", 0.7829], ["2023-09-10", 0.7907], ["2023-09-11", 0.8038], ["2023-09-11", 0.8219], ["2023-09-11", 0.7912], ["2023-09-12", 0.7669], ["2023-09-14", 0.767], ["2023-09-14", 0.772], ["2023-09-16", 0.762], ["2023-09-18", 0.76], ["2023-09-23", 0.795], ["2023-09-24", 0.76], ["2023-09-24", 0.754], ["2023-10-01", 0.752], ["2023-10-01", 0.754], ["2023-10-02", 0.744], ["2023-10-03", 0.694], ["2023-10-04", 0.694], ["2023-10-05", 0.61], ["2023-10-05", 0.579], ["2023-10-08", 0.569], ["2023-10-10", 0.589], ["2023-10-12", 0.629], ["2023-10-12", 0.625], ["2023-10-14", 0.61], ["2023-10-14", 0.57], ["2023-10-18", 0.57], ["2023-10-21", 0.554], ["2023-10-21", 0.554], ["2023-10-22", 0.49], ["2023-10-26", 0.462], ["2023-10-26", 0.462], ["2023-10-26", 0.442], ["2023-10-27", 0.447], ["2023-10-28", 0.437], ["2023-10-29", 0.444], ["2023-11-01", 0.438], ["2023-11-02", 0.443], ["2023-11-05", 0.443], ["2023-11-05", 0.45], ["2023-11-06", 0.45], ["2023-11-09", 0.453], ["2023-11-10", 0.44], ["2023-11-12", 0.44], ["2023-11-13", 0.426], ["2023-11-13", 0.424], ["2023-11-16", 0.424], ["2023-11-20", 0.424], ["2023-11-26", 0.421], ["2023-11-30", 0.421], ["2023-11-30", 0.421], ["2023-12-03", 0.421], ["2023-12-03", 0.419], ["2023-12-07", 0.419], ["2023-12-07", 0.417], ["2023-12-08", 0.417], ["2023-12-09", 0.412], ["2023-12-10", 0.448], ["2023-12-10", 0.447], ["2023-12-12", 0.447], ["2023-12-13", 0.465], ["2023-12-14", 0.465], ["2023-12-19", 0.465], ["2023-12-21", 0.465], ["2023-12-23", 0.488], ["2023-12-23", 0.493], ["2023-12-23", 0.493], ["2023-12-25", 0.506], ["2023-12-26", 0.506], ["2023-12-28", 0.503], ["2024-01-01", 0.4573], ["2024-01-02", 0.4536], ["2024-01-04", 0.4536], ["2024-01-09", 0.4536], ["2024-01-11", 0.4536], ["2024-01-12", 0.4509], ["2024-01-12", 0.4509]] | ["https://x.com/imillhiser/status/1705616049045971271?s=20", "https://www.vox.com/scotus/2023/9/23/23864355/supreme-court-cfpb-unconstitutional-consumer-financial-fifth-circuit-great-depression", "https://twitter.com/i/status/1653727403536183301", "https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/22/22-448/266839/20230515120807734_230503a%20Amici%20Curiae%20Brief.pdf", "https://aboutblaw.com/5mY", "https://www.vox.com/scotus/23845702/supreme-court-fifth-circuit-term-cfpb-guns-voting-chevron", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/17/politics/cfpb-supreme-court-john-roberts/index.html", "https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/22/22-448/274470/20230802113142512_22-448rbUnitedStates.pdf"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3048 | <p>Purdue Pharma declared bankruptcy as it faced heavy liability for its role in the US opioid crisis, and agreed in a bankruptcy court to contribute billions of dollars in exchange for, among other things, a release from further civil liability for the Sackler family owners of the firm (<a href="https://apnews.com/article/purdue-pharma-opioid-settlement-6fd3e10dcd6b0eeffd2f0b885efd4693" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/10/politics/supreme-court-purdue-pharma-opioid-settlement/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/10/02/purdue-pharma-opioid-crisis-supreme-court-bankruptcy/70918577007/" target="_blank">USA Today</a>). A federal district court ruled that the bankruptcy court lacked the authority to approve a plan that included nonconsensual releases for third parties, which the Second Circuit reversed due to binding precedent (<a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2023/23-124" target="_blank">Oyez</a>, <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/harrington-v-purdue-pharma-l-p/" target="_blank">SCOTUSblog</a>, <a href="https://casetext.com/case/purdue-pharma-v-the-city-of-grande-prairie-in-re-purdue-pharma#N307DF" target="_blank">Second Circuit - In Re: Purdue Pharma (2023)</a>). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2023 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | None | In Harrington v. Purdue Pharma L.P., will the Supreme Court rule that a bankruptcy court could approve OxyContin-maker Purdue Pharma's reorganization plan, which includes nonconsensual, nondebtor releases? | 2023-10-05 | [["2023-10-06", 0.0], ["2023-10-06", 0.15], ["2023-10-06", 0.2767], ["2023-10-06", 0.3325], ["2023-10-07", 0.3125], ["2023-10-07", 0.29], ["2023-10-08", 0.325], ["2023-10-09", 0.3429], ["2023-10-09", 0.3625], ["2023-10-10", 0.3222], ["2023-10-10", 0.3111], ["2023-10-11", 0.305], ["2023-10-20", 0.305], ["2023-10-23", 0.306], ["2023-10-24", 0.326], ["2023-10-30", 0.329], ["2023-10-30", 0.319], ["2023-10-31", 0.314], ["2023-10-31", 0.339], ["2023-11-04", 0.419], ["2023-11-05", 0.428], ["2023-11-13", 0.434], ["2023-11-13", 0.429], ["2023-11-29", 0.424], ["2023-12-05", 0.394], ["2023-12-06", 0.454], ["2023-12-11", 0.465], ["2023-12-12", 0.475], ["2023-12-13", 0.54], ["2023-12-13", 0.568], ["2023-12-14", 0.576], ["2023-12-17", 0.528], ["2023-12-25", 0.537], ["2024-01-01", 0.592], ["2024-01-02", 0.626], ["2024-01-03", 0.661], ["2024-01-05", 0.667], ["2024-01-08", 0.676], ["2024-01-08", 0.677], ["2024-01-12", 0.681], ["2024-01-12", 0.681]] | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3173 | <p>NATO continues to support Ukraine's defense against Russia without direct involvement, though domestic political pressures are threatening unity (<a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-chief-sees-real-risk-of-putin-attacking-other-countries-after-ukraine/" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2023-12-06/biden-help-ukraine-now-or-send-americans-to-fight-russia-with-nato-later" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_219118.htm?selectedLocale=en" target="_blank">NATO</a>). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results at least three fatalities (total, not each) for the national military forces and/or law enforcement of either side. As of launch, there were 31 NATO member states (<a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_52044.htm" target="_blank">NATO</a>). For the purposes of this question, members of armed forces fighting without command authorization are not considered "national military forces and/or law enforcement" (e.g., <a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-europe-d0243a1708a3115e5ad0ac40aed99b9f" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-60684749" target="_blank">BBC</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and/or law enforcement of Russia and those of a NATO member state resulting in at least three fatalities before 1 September 2024? | 2023-12-21 | [["2023-12-22", 0.01], ["2023-12-22", 0.005], ["2023-12-22", 0.07], ["2023-12-22", 0.085], ["2023-12-22", 0.074], ["2023-12-22", 0.0783], ["2023-12-22", 0.0714], ["2023-12-22", 0.075], ["2023-12-22", 0.0722], ["2023-12-22", 0.07], ["2023-12-22", 0.0636], ["2023-12-22", 0.0583], ["2023-12-22", 0.0538], ["2023-12-23", 0.0536], ["2023-12-23", 0.05], ["2023-12-23", 0.0475], ["2023-12-23", 0.0518], ["2023-12-23", 0.0539], ["2023-12-23", 0.0516], ["2023-12-23", 0.0515], ["2023-12-23", 0.0562], ["2023-12-23", 0.0562], ["2023-12-23", 0.0555], ["2023-12-23", 0.0961], ["2023-12-23", 0.0957], ["2023-12-23", 0.0935], ["2023-12-24", 0.0979], ["2023-12-24", 0.0975], ["2023-12-24", 0.0936], ["2023-12-24", 0.0919], ["2023-12-24", 0.0941], ["2023-12-24", 0.0943], ["2023-12-24", 0.0914], ["2023-12-24", 0.0887], ["2023-12-25", 0.0858], ["2023-12-25", 0.1081], ["2023-12-25", 0.1064], ["2023-12-25", 0.1091], ["2023-12-25", 0.134], ["2023-12-25", 0.1317], ["2023-12-25", 0.1507], ["2023-12-25", 0.1254], ["2023-12-26", 0.1426], ["2023-12-26", 0.1429], ["2023-12-26", 0.1635], ["2023-12-26", 0.1605], ["2023-12-26", 0.1532], ["2023-12-26", 0.1595], ["2023-12-26", 0.1636], ["2023-12-26", 0.163], ["2023-12-26", 0.1646], ["2023-12-27", 0.1718], ["2023-12-27", 0.17], ["2023-12-27", 0.1678], ["2023-12-27", 0.1733], ["2023-12-27", 0.168], ["2023-12-27", 0.1627], ["2023-12-27", 0.1641], ["2023-12-27", 0.1593], ["2023-12-28", 0.1696], ["2023-12-28", 0.1756], ["2023-12-28", 0.1468], ["2023-12-28", 0.1429], ["2023-12-29", 0.1425], ["2023-12-29", 0.1508], ["2023-12-29", 0.1567], ["2023-12-30", 0.1525], ["2023-12-31", 0.1492], ["2023-12-31", 0.1432], ["2023-12-31", 0.1377], ["2023-12-31", 0.1304], ["2023-12-31", 0.1273], ["2023-12-31", 0.1559], ["2023-12-31", 0.1567], ["2024-01-01", 0.19], ["2024-01-02", 0.1843], ["2024-01-02", 0.1496], ["2024-01-02", 0.1407], ["2024-01-02", 0.1354], ["2024-01-02", 0.1307], ["2024-01-02", 0.1583], ["2024-01-03", 0.153], ["2024-01-03", 0.15], ["2024-01-04", 0.153], ["2024-01-04", 0.1503], ["2024-01-04", 0.149], ["2024-01-05", 0.1442], ["2024-01-05", 0.1355], ["2024-01-05", 0.1519], ["2024-01-06", 0.1513], ["2024-01-06", 0.1465], ["2024-01-07", 0.145], ["2024-01-07", 0.1447], ["2024-01-07", 0.1441], ["2024-01-07", 0.1428], ["2024-01-07", 0.145], ["2024-01-07", 0.1452], ["2024-01-08", 0.1479], ["2024-01-08", 0.1441], ["2024-01-08", 0.1441], ["2024-01-08", 0.14], ["2024-01-10", 0.1409], ["2024-01-10", 0.1397], ["2024-01-10", 0.1397], ["2024-01-10", 0.1378], ["2024-01-11", 0.1375], ["2024-01-11", 0.1358], ["2024-01-12", 0.1472], ["2024-01-12", 0.1472], ["2024-01-12", 0.1483], ["2024-01-12", 0.1646], ["2024-01-12", 0.1646]] | ["https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk-aims-offer-military-training-inside-ukraine-minister-says-2023-09-30/", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Russian_Sukhoi_Su-24_shootdown"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |