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True | 2022-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2061 |
<p>Skyrocketing housing prices in New Zealand are raising concerns about an asset bubble (<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/10/house-prices-in-australia-and-new-zealand-among-worlds-fastest-growing-in-2021" target="_blank">Guardian</a>, <a href="https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2021/06/new-zealand-tops-bloomberg-real-estate-risk-rankings-as-oecd-house-prices-reach-unprecedented-levels.html" target="_blank">Newshub</a>). The outcome will be determined using the national monthly median house price data for December 2021 as first reported by the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ), expected in mid-January 2022 (<a href="https://www.blog.reinz.co.nz/reports" target="_blank">REINZ</a>). Revisions to the data later would be immaterial.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-01-18 | Will the median price of a house in New Zealand exceed NZ$870,000 in December 2021, according to REINZ? | 2021-07-02 | [["2021-07-02", 1.0], ["2021-07-02", 0.755], ["2021-07-02", 1.0], ["2021-07-02", 1.0], ["2021-07-03", 0.875], ["2021-07-03", 1.0], ["2021-07-03", 0.935], ["2021-07-03", 0.87], ["2021-07-03", 0.935], ["2021-07-03", 0.935], ["2021-07-03", 1.0], ["2021-07-04", 0.935], ["2021-07-04", 0.87], ["2021-07-04", 0.865], ["2021-07-05", 0.86], ["2021-07-05", 0.81], ["2021-07-05", 0.815], ["2021-07-05", 0.86], ["2021-07-05", 0.735], ["2021-07-05", 0.77], ["2021-07-06", 0.735], ["2021-07-06", 0.7], ["2021-07-06", 0.7], ["2021-07-06", 0.7], ["2021-07-06", 0.735], ["2021-07-07", 0.735], ["2021-07-08", 0.795], ["2021-07-08", 0.895], ["2021-07-08", 0.84], ["2021-07-09", 0.84], ["2021-07-09", 0.77], ["2021-07-09", 0.77], ["2021-07-09", 0.72], ["2021-07-11", 0.72], ["2021-07-11", 0.72], ["2021-07-12", 0.75], ["2021-07-12", 0.75], ["2021-07-13", 0.75], ["2021-07-13", 0.75], ["2021-07-14", 0.755], ["2021-07-15", 0.755], ["2021-07-15", 0.755], ["2021-07-15", 0.755], ["2021-07-15", 0.755], ["2021-07-15", 0.755], ["2021-07-15", 0.75], ["2021-07-16", 0.75], ["2021-07-16", 0.75], ["2021-07-19", 0.75], ["2021-07-20", 0.75], ["2021-07-20", 0.75], ["2021-07-20", 0.75], ["2021-07-20", 0.75], ["2021-07-22", 0.75], ["2021-07-22", 0.745], ["2021-07-22", 0.745], ["2021-07-22", 0.735], ["2021-07-25", 0.74], ["2021-07-26", 0.74], ["2021-07-27", 0.74], ["2021-07-29", 0.77], ["2021-07-29", 0.77], ["2021-07-29", 0.77], ["2021-07-30", 0.77], ["2021-07-30", 0.8], ["2021-07-30", 0.8], ["2021-07-31", 0.8], ["2021-08-01", 0.81], ["2021-08-02", 0.8], ["2021-08-02", 0.8], ["2021-08-02", 0.8], ["2021-08-03", 0.8], ["2021-08-03", 0.82], ["2021-08-04", 0.86], ["2021-08-05", 0.81], ["2021-08-09", 0.81], ["2021-08-10", 0.81], ["2021-08-11", 0.81], ["2021-08-11", 0.81], ["2021-08-12", 0.82], ["2021-08-12", 0.81], ["2021-08-12", 0.82], ["2021-08-12", 0.82], ["2021-08-12", 0.82], ["2021-08-12", 0.835], ["2021-08-12", 0.85], ["2021-08-14", 0.835], ["2021-08-14", 0.835], ["2021-08-14", 0.835], ["2021-08-15", 0.85], ["2021-08-16", 0.87], ["2021-08-16", 0.87], ["2021-08-17", 0.895], ["2021-08-18", 0.89], ["2021-08-18", 0.85], ["2021-08-19", 0.85], ["2021-08-19", 0.75], ["2021-08-20", 0.75], ["2021-08-20", 0.75], ["2021-08-20", 0.75], ["2021-08-24", 0.75], ["2021-08-24", 0.75], ["2021-08-26", 0.75], ["2021-08-28", 0.75], ["2021-08-29", 0.75], ["2021-09-01", 0.75], ["2021-09-02", 0.75], ["2021-09-02", 0.84], ["2021-09-03", 0.84], ["2021-09-04", 0.84], ["2021-09-05", 0.85], ["2021-09-05", 0.85], ["2021-09-06", 0.8], ["2021-09-06", 0.8], ["2021-09-07", 0.725], ["2021-09-08", 0.725], ["2021-09-08", 0.685], ["2021-09-08", 0.685], ["2021-09-09", 0.685], ["2021-09-09", 0.685], ["2021-09-10", 0.685], ["2021-09-10", 0.685], ["2021-09-10", 0.685], ["2021-09-11", 0.685], ["2021-09-12", 0.685], ["2021-09-12", 0.685], ["2021-09-12", 0.73], ["2021-09-13", 0.73], ["2021-09-13", 0.73], ["2021-09-13", 0.73], ["2021-09-14", 0.77], ["2021-09-14", 0.815], ["2021-09-14", 0.85], ["2021-09-14", 0.85], ["2021-09-14", 0.85], ["2021-09-14", 0.865], ["2021-09-14", 0.865], ["2021-09-14", 0.85], ["2021-09-14", 0.85], ["2021-09-17", 0.87], ["2021-09-17", 0.895], ["2021-09-18", 0.895], ["2021-09-18", 0.895], ["2021-09-19", 0.9], ["2021-09-20", 0.9], ["2021-09-20", 0.9], ["2021-09-21", 0.9], ["2021-09-22", 0.9], ["2021-09-23", 0.9], ["2021-09-24", 0.9], ["2021-09-26", 0.9], ["2021-09-27", 0.9], ["2021-09-27", 0.9], ["2021-09-28", 0.9], ["2021-09-28", 0.9], ["2021-09-28", 0.92], ["2021-09-29", 0.92], ["2021-09-29", 0.9], ["2021-09-29", 0.94], ["2021-09-29", 0.94], ["2021-10-02", 0.94], ["2021-10-02", 0.94], ["2021-10-05", 0.94], ["2021-10-05", 0.94], ["2021-10-06", 0.95], ["2021-10-07", 0.95], ["2021-10-07", 0.95], ["2021-10-07", 0.95], ["2021-10-09", 0.95], ["2021-10-11", 0.95], ["2021-10-11", 0.95], ["2021-10-12", 0.95], ["2021-10-12", 0.95], ["2021-10-13", 0.95], ["2021-10-13", 0.95], ["2021-10-13", 0.95], ["2021-10-14", 0.95], ["2021-10-14", 0.95], ["2021-10-14", 0.95], ["2021-10-14", 0.94], ["2021-10-14", 0.94], ["2021-10-14", 0.94], ["2021-10-14", 0.94], ["2021-10-14", 0.94], ["2021-10-14", 0.94], ["2021-10-14", 0.94], ["2021-10-14", 0.94], ["2021-10-14", 0.94], ["2021-10-14", 0.94], ["2021-10-15", 0.945], ["2021-10-15", 0.875], ["2021-10-15", 0.875], ["2021-10-15", 0.875], ["2021-10-15", 0.875], ["2021-10-15", 0.85], ["2021-10-15", 0.84], ["2021-10-15", 0.835], ["2021-10-16", 0.78], ["2021-10-17", 0.745], ["2021-10-17", 0.745], ["2021-10-17", 0.745], ["2021-10-18", 0.72], ["2021-10-18", 0.72], ["2021-10-18", 0.71], ["2021-10-18", 0.705], ["2021-10-19", 0.705], ["2021-10-19", 0.705], ["2021-10-19", 0.705], ["2021-10-20", 0.705], ["2021-10-21", 0.705], ["2021-10-21", 0.72], ["2021-10-21", 0.72], ["2021-10-22", 0.72], ["2021-10-23", 0.72], ["2021-10-24", 0.72], ["2021-10-24", 0.745], ["2021-10-25", 0.745], ["2021-10-26", 0.745], ["2021-10-26", 0.745], ["2021-10-27", 0.745], ["2021-10-28", 0.745], ["2021-10-28", 0.745], ["2021-10-29", 0.74], ["2021-10-30", 0.74], ["2021-10-31", 0.74], ["2021-10-31", 0.74], ["2021-11-01", 0.745], ["2021-11-02", 0.745], ["2021-11-02", 0.745], ["2021-11-02", 0.74], ["2021-11-04", 0.715], ["2021-11-04", 0.68], ["2021-11-04", 0.665], ["2021-11-05", 0.66], ["2021-11-05", 0.66], ["2021-11-05", 0.665], ["2021-11-05", 0.665], ["2021-11-06", 0.665], ["2021-11-07", 0.665], ["2021-11-08", 0.665], ["2021-11-09", 0.66], ["2021-11-09", 0.66], ["2021-11-10", 0.66], ["2021-11-11", 0.66], ["2021-11-11", 0.665], ["2021-11-11", 0.665], ["2021-11-11", 0.665], ["2021-11-11", 0.685], ["2021-11-12", 0.75], ["2021-11-12", 0.8], ["2021-11-12", 0.8], ["2021-11-13", 0.8], ["2021-11-13", 0.8], ["2021-11-13", 0.8], ["2021-11-13", 0.8], ["2021-11-14", 0.8], ["2021-11-14", 0.825], ["2021-11-14", 0.825], ["2021-11-15", 0.825], ["2021-11-19", 0.825], ["2021-11-19", 0.825], ["2021-11-21", 0.8], ["2021-11-21", 0.8], ["2021-11-23", 0.825], ["2021-11-25", 0.855], ["2021-11-27", 0.87], ["2021-11-27", 0.92], ["2021-11-27", 0.905], ["2021-11-28", 0.905], ["2021-11-28", 0.935], ["2021-11-29", 0.935], ["2021-11-29", 0.935], ["2021-11-29", 0.935], ["2021-12-02", 0.935], ["2021-12-03", 0.935], ["2021-12-05", 0.935], ["2021-12-07", 0.935], ["2021-12-07", 0.935], ["2021-12-07", 0.935], ["2021-12-09", 0.935], ["2021-12-12", 0.95], ["2021-12-13", 0.95], ["2021-12-13", 0.95], ["2021-12-13", 0.95], ["2021-12-14", 0.95], ["2021-12-18", 0.95], ["2021-12-18", 0.95], ["2021-12-20", 0.95], ["2021-12-21", 0.95], ["2021-12-21", 0.95], ["2021-12-21", 0.95], ["2021-12-22", 0.95], ["2021-12-25", 0.95], ["2021-12-25", 0.95], ["2021-12-26", 0.95], ["2021-12-29", 0.95], ["2021-12-30", 0.95], ["2022-01-01", 0.95], ["2022-01-01", 0.95]] | ["https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/cooling-measures-doing-little-slow-new-zealands-housing-boom-2021-08-06/", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/16/generation-frozen-out-new-zealand-house-prices-soar-despite-government-reform", "https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2108/S00233/reinz-july-data-new-zealand-reaches-new-record-median-house-price-rate-of-growth-shows-signs-of-easing.htm", "https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5ce1fd700bf20400017d3a30/t/6114301bc89bd902013024ed/1628713030425/REINZ+Monthly+Property+Report+-+July+2021.pdf", "https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-business-auckland-new-zealand-economy-16204c2fe4bfdd5f5f0863fcd720d097", "https://www.corelogic.co.nz/news/property-market-slowdown-continued-august-covid-resurgence-could-cause-temporary-reversal-0#.YS7KS44zaUk", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1327862", "https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/2021/Residential/July/REINZ%20Residential%20Press%20Release%20-%20July%202021.pdf", "https://www.mpamag.com/nz/mortgage-industry/market-updates/new-zealand-property-prices-rise-again-but-sentiment-has-turned/319733", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1347036", "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news/2021/10/monetary-stimulus-further-reduced-official-cash-rate-raised-to-050-percent#:~:text=Monetary%20Stimulus%20Further%20Reduced%20%2D%20Official,Reserve%20Bank%20of%20New%20Zealand", "https://i.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/125967572/no-winter-slowdown-for-auckland-market", "https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/housing-crisis-property-prices-expected-to-maintain-despite-lvr-restrictions/PTFKDZ3LEN4GPKHATU4XCRC3OY/", "https://reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/2020/November/REINZ%20Monthly%20Property%20Report%20-%20November%202020.pdf", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IR3TIB01NZM156N", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/23/new-zealand-moves-to-rein-in-runaway-housing-market-with-billion-dollar-plan", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2054-will-at-least-3-5-million-people-in-new-zealand-be-fully-vaccinated-against-covid-19-before-30-december-2021", "https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/2021/Residential/August/REINZ%20Monthly%20Property%20Report%20-%20August%202021-1.pdf", "https://www.blog.reinz.co.nz/s/REINZ-Monthly-Property-Report-June-2021-v2.pdf", "https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/125743196/why-house-prices-have-not-stopped-rising", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1371326", "https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/454741/housing-prices-pose-risk-to-new-zealand-s-financial-stability-rbnz-governor-says", "https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/126698914/yes-the-runaway-housing-market-has-finally-peaked", "https://www.interest.co.nz/charts/real-estate/median-price-reinz", "https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/2021/Residential/October/REINZ%20Monthly%20Property%20Report%20-%20October%202021.pdf"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2022-09-05 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2292 |
<p>As the Russia-Ukraine conflict develops, concerns have been raised regarding potential Russian cyberattacks (<a href="https://fortune.com/2022/02/24/what-if-russian-cyber-attacks-hit-west-ukraine-notpetya-ddos/" target="_blank">Fortune</a>, <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/russia-ukraine-conflict-what-role-do-cyberattacks-play/a-60945572" target="_blank">Deutsche Welle</a>, <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/80347/expert-backgrounder-nato-response-options-to-potential-russia-cyber-attacks/" target="_blank">Just Security</a>, <a href="https://nationalinterest.org/blog/techland-when-great-power-competition-meets-digital-world/where-are-devastating-russian-cyber" target="_blank">National Interest</a>). The attribution statement, the fatality, and at least part of the attack must all occur during the question's open period, but the end date of the question will be determined by the date of the fatality.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2022-09-05 | Between 4 March 2022 and 4 September 2022, will a NATO member state accuse the Russian government of conducting a lethal cyberattack against the same NATO member state resulting in at least five fatalities? | 2022-03-03 | [["2022-03-04", 0.7], ["2022-03-04", 0.3775], ["2022-03-04", 0.596], ["2022-03-04", 0.54], ["2022-03-04", 0.5825], ["2022-03-04", 0.556], ["2022-03-04", 0.429], ["2022-03-04", 0.403], ["2022-03-04", 0.336], ["2022-03-05", 0.239], ["2022-03-05", 0.166], ["2022-03-05", 0.173], ["2022-03-05", 0.114], ["2022-03-05", 0.111], ["2022-03-05", 0.14181818181818182], ["2022-03-05", 0.10083333333333333], ["2022-03-05", 0.0675], ["2022-03-05", 0.10846153846153846], ["2022-03-05", 0.10571428571428572], ["2022-03-05", 0.08866666666666667], ["2022-03-06", 0.13733333333333334], ["2022-03-06", 0.128125], ["2022-03-06", 0.13470588235294118], ["2022-03-06", 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0.0407], ["2022-08-31", 0.0407], ["2022-08-31", 0.0401], ["2022-09-01", 0.04], ["2022-09-01", 0.0396], ["2022-09-02", 0.0396], ["2022-09-02", 0.0396], ["2022-09-03", 0.0393], ["2022-09-04", 0.0385], ["2022-09-05", 0.0385], ["2022-09-05", 0.0385]] | ["http://www.ic3.gov/", "https://archive.ph/fhEwL", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyberwarfare_by_Russia", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/cyberattack-nato-could-trigger-collective-defence-clause-official-2022-02-28/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine_power_grid_hack", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1409703", "https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/18/world/europe/cyber-attack-germany-ransomeware-death.html", "https://www.justsecurity.org/80347/expert-backgrounder-nato-response-options-to-potential-russia-cyber-attacks/", "http://www.cisa.gov/shields-up"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-03-14 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2288 |
<p>Amid various sanctions being imposed against Russia in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine, countries are considering whether to block Russian access to SWIFT (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60521822" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-sanctions-swift-network-financial-transactions/" target="_blank">CBS News</a>, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/69f72de5-d727-496d-9f9d-316db7bdaf03" target="_blank">Financial Times</a>). A SWIFT ban on one or more Russian institutions would count. For more information on the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication see https://www.swift.com/about_swift/index, https://www.swift.com/about-us/legal/compliance-0/swift-and-sanctions.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. 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255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-03-14 | Between 27 February 2022 and 27 August 2022, will Russia be restricted or banned from access to the SWIFT banking system? | 2022-02-26 | [["2022-02-26", 1.0], ["2022-02-26", 1.0], ["2022-02-26", 1.0], ["2022-02-26", 1.0], ["2022-02-26", 1.0], ["2022-02-26", 1.0], ["2022-02-26", 1.0], ["2022-02-26", 0.95], ["2022-02-26", 1.0], ["2022-02-26", 1.0], ["2022-02-26", 1.0], ["2022-02-26", 1.0], ["2022-02-26", 1.0], ["2022-02-26", 1.0], ["2022-02-26", 1.0], ["2022-02-26", 1.0], ["2022-02-26", 1.0], ["2022-02-26", 1.0], ["2022-02-26", 1.0], ["2022-02-26", 1.0], ["2022-02-26", 1.0], ["2022-02-26", 1.0], ["2022-02-26", 1.0], ["2022-02-26", 1.0], ["2022-02-26", 1.0], ["2022-02-26", 1.0], ["2022-02-26", 1.0], ["2022-02-26", 1.0], ["2022-02-26", 1.0], ["2022-02-26", 1.0], ["2022-02-26", 1.0], ["2022-02-26", 1.0], ["2022-02-26", 1.0], ["2022-02-26", 1.0], ["2022-02-26", 1.0], 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["2022-03-01", 1.0], ["2022-03-01", 1.0], ["2022-03-01", 1.0], ["2022-03-01", 1.0], ["2022-03-02", 1.0], ["2022-03-02", 1.0], ["2022-03-02", 1.0], ["2022-03-02", 1.0], ["2022-03-02", 1.0], ["2022-03-02", 1.0], ["2022-03-02", 1.0], ["2022-03-02", 1.0], ["2022-03-02", 1.0], ["2022-03-02", 1.0], ["2022-03-02", 1.0], ["2022-03-02", 1.0], ["2022-03-02", 1.0], ["2022-03-03", 1.0], ["2022-03-03", 1.0], ["2022-03-03", 1.0], ["2022-03-03", 1.0], ["2022-03-03", 1.0], ["2022-03-03", 1.0], ["2022-03-03", 1.0], ["2022-03-03", 1.0], ["2022-03-03", 1.0], ["2022-03-03", 1.0], ["2022-03-03", 1.0], ["2022-03-03", 1.0], ["2022-03-03", 1.0], ["2022-03-04", 1.0], ["2022-03-04", 1.0], ["2022-03-04", 1.0], ["2022-03-04", 1.0], ["2022-03-04", 1.0], ["2022-03-04", 1.0], ["2022-03-05", 1.0], ["2022-03-08", 1.0], ["2022-03-08", 1.0], ["2022-03-09", 1.0], ["2022-03-09", 1.0], ["2022-03-10", 1.0], ["2022-03-10", 1.0], ["2022-03-11", 1.0], ["2022-03-11", 1.0], ["2022-03-12", 1.0], ["2022-03-13", 1.0], ["2022-03-14", 1.0], ["2022-03-14", 1.0]] | ["https://www.gobankingrates.com/banking/checking-account/what-is-swift-code/", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/feb/26/russia-ukraine-latest-news-fighting-kyiv-zelenskiy-assault-putin-capital?page=with:block-621a6c808f08219c41a737b2#block-621a6c808f08219c41a737b2", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-sanctions-defence-bank/russia-launches-new-defense-bank-to-shield-lenders-from-sanctions-idUSKBN1F71TJ", "https://twitter.com/germanyintheeu/status/1497629293937049606", "https://www.npr.org/2021/05/05/993754397/poll-much-of-the-world-sees-the-u-s-as-a-threat-to-democracy", "https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1497695982020145156", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-09/germany-is-stalling-eu-efforts-to-broaden-russia-s-swift-ban", "https://theconversation.com/swift-ejecting-russia-is-largely-symbolic-heres-why-178065", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1828-will-russia-officially-and-publicly-announce-it-has-deployed-or-will-deploy-armed-troops-to-nagorno-karabakh-before-1-december-2020", "https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEMP780ecpE7xCI-bb8pvX8kqGQgEKhAIACoHCAowocv1CjCSptoCMPrTpgU?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen", "https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/feb/26/world-leaders-ban-russia-swift-cutting-country-fin/", "https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-europe-european-union-704b3b6678c5d23bd05482c89a0384d2", "https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1497496218359898116", "https://brilliantmaps.com/threat-to-peace/", "https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_1484", "https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/02/26/joint-statement-on-further-restrictive-economic-measures/", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-60542433", "https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/STATEMENT_22_1423", "https://www.swift.com/news-events/news/message-swift-community", "https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/sieben-russische-banken-werden-aus-swift-ausgeschlossen-a-f979914b-4ee6-49a9-9842-5c6059bfb6b8", "https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/eu-excludes-seven-russian-banks-swift-official-journal-2022-03-02/", "https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/02/22/fact-sheet-united-states-imposes-first-tranche-of-swift-and-severe-costs-on-russia/", "https://www.eumonitor.eu/9353000/1/j9vvik7m1c3gyxp/viy85f9hbsyp", "https://uawire.org/kyiv-full-consensus-for-disconnecting-russia-from-swift-has-been-achieved-the-process-has-begun#", "https://www.reuters.com/business/swift-says-it-its-examining-which-entities-are-subject-sanctions-2022-03-01/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2020-11-03 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1748 |
<p>After a bill joining Colorado to the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC), which would require that the state's presidential electors vote for whichever candidate wins the popular vote in a presidential election, opponents successfully petitioned to put a veto referendum on the ballot (<a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Colorado_National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact_Referendum_(2020)" target="_blank">Ballotpedia</a>, <a href="https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/state/co" target="_blank">National Popular Vote</a>, <a href="https://www.coloradopolitics.com/news/drive-to-repeal-national-popular-vote-compact-makes-colorados-2020-ballot/article_c533bed0-ca76-11e9-9459-e3bdeca6799c.html" target="_blank">Colorado Politics</a>). A "yes" vote is a vote to join the NPVIC.</p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>
| 2020-11-04 | Will Colorado voters approve Proposition 113 (Colorado National Popular Vote Interstate Compact Referendum)? | 2020-08-18 | [["2020-08-18", 1.0], ["2020-08-18", 0.9], ["2020-08-18", 0.95], ["2020-08-18", 0.975], ["2020-08-18", 1.0], ["2020-08-18", 0.975], ["2020-08-18", 0.95], ["2020-08-19", 0.975], ["2020-08-19", 1.0], ["2020-08-19", 0.975], ["2020-08-19", 0.975], ["2020-08-19", 1.0], ["2020-08-19", 1.0], ["2020-08-19", 1.0], ["2020-08-19", 0.99], ["2020-08-19", 1.0], ["2020-08-19", 1.0], ["2020-08-20", 0.99], ["2020-08-20", 0.99], ["2020-08-20", 0.99], ["2020-08-20", 0.99], ["2020-08-20", 0.965], ["2020-08-20", 0.95], ["2020-08-20", 0.95], ["2020-08-20", 0.95], ["2020-08-20", 0.965], ["2020-08-20", 0.965], ["2020-08-21", 0.95], ["2020-08-21", 0.95], ["2020-08-21", 0.95], ["2020-08-21", 0.95], ["2020-08-21", 0.95], ["2020-08-21", 0.85], ["2020-08-21", 0.78], ["2020-08-21", 0.78], ["2020-08-21", 0.78], ["2020-08-21", 0.765], ["2020-08-22", 0.725], ["2020-08-22", 0.725], ["2020-08-22", 0.75], ["2020-08-24", 0.75], ["2020-08-25", 0.78], ["2020-08-25", 0.84], ["2020-08-25", 0.84], ["2020-08-27", 0.925], ["2020-08-27", 0.95], ["2020-08-28", 0.925], ["2020-08-29", 0.95], ["2020-08-30", 0.95], ["2020-09-01", 0.95], ["2020-09-01", 0.95], ["2020-09-02", 0.95], ["2020-09-02", 0.95], ["2020-09-03", 0.95], ["2020-09-03", 0.95], ["2020-09-04", 0.95], ["2020-09-04", 0.955], ["2020-09-06", 0.95], ["2020-09-08", 0.955], ["2020-09-08", 0.95], ["2020-09-08", 0.95], ["2020-09-10", 0.95], ["2020-09-10", 0.955], ["2020-09-12", 0.96], ["2020-09-16", 0.955], ["2020-09-17", 0.955], ["2020-09-17", 0.955], ["2020-09-19", 0.955], ["2020-09-20", 0.95], ["2020-09-21", 0.96], ["2020-09-21", 0.96], ["2020-09-23", 0.96], ["2020-09-23", 0.96], ["2020-09-24", 0.965], ["2020-09-25", 0.965], ["2020-09-26", 0.965], ["2020-09-27", 0.96], ["2020-09-28", 0.96], ["2020-09-29", 0.96], ["2020-09-29", 0.96], ["2020-10-04", 0.96], ["2020-10-06", 0.96], ["2020-10-06", 0.96], ["2020-10-06", 0.975], ["2020-10-07", 0.975], ["2020-10-08", 0.985], ["2020-10-08", 0.985], ["2020-10-11", 0.97], ["2020-10-12", 0.97], ["2020-10-12", 0.98], ["2020-10-13", 0.965], ["2020-10-14", 0.98], ["2020-10-14", 0.98], ["2020-10-15", 0.98], ["2020-10-18", 0.98], ["2020-10-19", 0.98], ["2020-10-19", 0.98], ["2020-10-19", 0.98], ["2020-10-19", 0.98], ["2020-10-20", 0.98], ["2020-10-22", 0.98], ["2020-10-22", 0.98], ["2020-10-22", 0.98], ["2020-10-25", 0.98], ["2020-10-25", 0.98], ["2020-10-25", 0.98], ["2020-10-26", 0.98], ["2020-10-27", 0.98], ["2020-10-28", 0.98], ["2020-10-28", 0.98], ["2020-10-30", 0.98], ["2020-10-30", 0.98], ["2020-10-30", 0.98], ["2020-11-01", 0.98], ["2020-11-02", 0.98], ["2020-11-02", 0.98], ["2020-11-02", 0.98], ["2020-11-02", 0.98], ["2020-11-03", 0.98], ["2020-11-03", 0.98]] | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2021-08-14 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1882 |
<p>Section 230 is a statute that protects social media companies from liability for content their users post (<a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-section-230-and-why-do-so-many-lawmakers-want-to-repeal-it/" target="_blank">CBS News</a>, <a href="https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/trump-and-section-230-what-know" target="_blank">Council on Foreign Relations</a>, <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/LSB10306.pdf" target="_blank">Federation of American Scientists</a>, <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/230" target="_blank">Cornell</a>, <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/23/trump-ndaa-veto-section-230/" target="_blank">TechCrunch</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-08-15 | Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 14 August 2021? | 2020-12-30 | [["2020-12-31", 0.6], ["2020-12-31", 0.65], ["2020-12-31", 0.6], ["2020-12-31", 0.6], ["2020-12-31", 0.35], ["2021-01-01", 0.2], ["2021-01-01", 0.15], ["2021-01-01", 0.2], ["2021-01-01", 0.335], ["2021-01-01", 0.35], ["2021-01-01", 0.275], ["2021-01-01", 0.25], ["2021-01-01", 0.225], ["2021-01-01", 0.225], ["2021-01-01", 0.25], ["2021-01-02", 0.225], ["2021-01-02", 0.2], ["2021-01-02", 0.2], ["2021-01-03", 0.175], ["2021-01-03", 0.2], ["2021-01-03", 0.175], ["2021-01-03", 0.1], ["2021-01-03", 0.15], ["2021-01-03", 0.15], ["2021-01-03", 0.2], ["2021-01-04", 0.2], ["2021-01-04", 0.175], ["2021-01-04", 0.15], ["2021-01-04", 0.15], ["2021-01-04", 0.15], ["2021-01-04", 0.135], ["2021-01-04", 0.135], ["2021-01-04", 0.135], ["2021-01-04", 0.135], ["2021-01-04", 0.11], ["2021-01-04", 0.12], ["2021-01-04", 0.11], ["2021-01-05", 0.135], ["2021-01-05", 0.12], ["2021-01-05", 0.135], ["2021-01-05", 0.12], ["2021-01-05", 0.11], ["2021-01-05", 0.11], ["2021-01-05", 0.1], ["2021-01-05", 0.12], ["2021-01-05", 0.1], ["2021-01-05", 0.1], ["2021-01-05", 0.1], ["2021-01-05", 0.1], ["2021-01-05", 0.1], ["2021-01-05", 0.1], ["2021-01-05", 0.1], ["2021-01-06", 0.1], ["2021-01-06", 0.095], ["2021-01-06", 0.09], ["2021-01-06", 0.085], ["2021-01-06", 0.095], ["2021-01-06", 0.1], ["2021-01-06", 0.095], ["2021-01-06", 0.1], ["2021-01-06", 0.095], ["2021-01-06", 0.09], ["2021-01-06", 0.09], ["2021-01-06", 0.09], ["2021-01-06", 0.09], ["2021-01-07", 0.085], ["2021-01-07", 0.085], ["2021-01-07", 0.08], ["2021-01-07", 0.085], ["2021-01-07", 0.09], ["2021-01-07", 0.08], ["2021-01-07", 0.09], ["2021-01-07", 0.105], ["2021-01-07", 0.135], ["2021-01-08", 0.12], ["2021-01-08", 0.15], ["2021-01-08", 0.155], ["2021-01-08", 0.115], ["2021-01-08", 0.15], ["2021-01-09", 0.175], 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"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communications_Decency_Act", "https://www.warner.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/4/f/4fa9c9ba-2b34-4854-8c19-59a0a9676a31/66DECFBC0D6E6958C2520C3A6A69EAF6.safe-tech-act---final.pdf", "https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/some-interesting-cda-section-230-8391611/", "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/15/house-republicans-outline-principles-for-reforming-section-230.html", "https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/internet/californias-net-neutrality-law-can-go-forward-judge-rules-rcna307", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/09/technology/section-230-congress.html", "https://www.fcc.gov/news-events/blog/2020/10/21/fccs-authority-interpret-section-230-communications-act", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/twitter-has-permanently-banned-the-corporate-mypillow-account-after-founder-mike-lindell-posted-from-it/ar-BB1djZtV", "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/schatz-thune-bipartisan-plan-section-230-reforms-big-tech-accountability", "https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2021/02/15/sect-f15.html", "https://digiday.com/media/section-230-reforms/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Molasses_Flood", "https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2021/02/proposed-sec-230-rewrite-could-have-wide-ranging-consequences/", "https://coloradosun.com/2021/02/07/big-tech-section-230-opinion/", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-congress-might-upend-section-230-the-internet-law-big-tech-is-built-on-11613172368?mod=hp_lead_pos10", "https://www.dailywire.com/news/biden-revokes-trumps-order-targeting-online-censorship", "https://mashable.com/article/section-230-safe-tech-act-reform/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/02/05/senate-warner-section-230-reform/", "https://www.brookings.edu/blog/techtank/2021/03/17/back-to-the-future-for-section-230-reform/?utm_campaign=Center%20for%20Technology%20Innovation&utm_medium=email&utm_content=117420087&utm_source=hs_email"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-10-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2685 |
<p>The PRC continues to hold military drills near Taiwan as the island nation extends the term of mandatory military service (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2022/11/18/will-taiwan-be-the-ukraine-of-asia" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/12/26/china-taiwan-incursions-planes-ships" target="_blank">Axios</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-64100577" target="_blank">BBC</a>). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? 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255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-10-01 | Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 October 2023? | 2022-12-30 | [["2022-12-30", 0.285], ["2022-12-30", 0.2], ["2022-12-30", 0.32], ["2022-12-30", 0.2757], ["2022-12-30", 0.2533], ["2022-12-31", 0.2164], ["2022-12-31", 0.2092], ["2022-12-31", 0.19], ["2022-12-31", 0.1765], ["2022-12-31", 0.1663], ["2022-12-31", 0.1838], ["2022-12-31", 0.1787], ["2022-12-31", 0.1758], ["2022-12-31", 0.1764], ["2022-12-31", 0.1656], ["2022-12-31", 0.1541], ["2022-12-31", 0.1752], ["2022-12-31", 0.1797], ["2022-12-31", 0.1754], ["2022-12-31", 0.1894], ["2022-12-31", 0.1908], ["2022-12-31", 0.1903], ["2023-01-01", 0.1838], ["2023-01-01", 0.1932], ["2023-01-01", 0.1895], ["2023-01-01", 0.1911], ["2023-01-01", 0.1929], ["2023-01-01", 0.1883], ["2023-01-01", 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0.0915], ["2023-07-08", 0.0913], ["2023-07-09", 0.0909], ["2023-07-09", 0.0908], ["2023-07-10", 0.0922], ["2023-07-10", 0.0913], ["2023-07-10", 0.0915], ["2023-07-10", 0.0917], ["2023-07-10", 0.0925], ["2023-07-11", 0.0899], ["2023-07-11", 0.0892], ["2023-07-11", 0.0893], ["2023-07-13", 0.0907], ["2023-07-14", 0.091], ["2023-07-15", 0.0913], ["2023-07-17", 0.0906], ["2023-07-17", 0.0848], ["2023-07-18", 0.0844], ["2023-07-19", 0.0837], ["2023-07-19", 0.0836], ["2023-07-19", 0.0834], ["2023-07-19", 0.0832], ["2023-07-20", 0.0832], ["2023-07-21", 0.0828], ["2023-07-21", 0.0826], ["2023-07-22", 0.078], ["2023-07-23", 0.0778], ["2023-07-24", 0.0774], ["2023-07-25", 0.0778], ["2023-07-25", 0.0769], ["2023-07-27", 0.0764], ["2023-07-27", 0.0764], ["2023-07-28", 0.0763], ["2023-07-29", 0.0761], ["2023-07-31", 0.0759], ["2023-07-31", 0.0716], ["2023-07-31", 0.0705], ["2023-07-31", 0.0705], ["2023-08-01", 0.0699], ["2023-08-02", 0.0694], ["2023-08-02", 0.0692], ["2023-08-02", 0.069], ["2023-08-02", 0.0689], ["2023-08-02", 0.0686], ["2023-08-04", 0.0674], ["2023-08-06", 0.0674], ["2023-08-08", 0.0669], ["2023-08-08", 0.0668], ["2023-08-08", 0.0668], ["2023-08-09", 0.0669], ["2023-08-09", 0.0669], ["2023-08-09", 0.0669], ["2023-08-11", 0.0666], ["2023-08-11", 0.0666], ["2023-08-12", 0.0663], ["2023-08-13", 0.0663], ["2023-08-13", 0.0661], ["2023-08-14", 0.0611], ["2023-08-15", 0.0603], ["2023-08-16", 0.0596], ["2023-08-17", 0.0595], ["2023-08-17", 0.0596], ["2023-08-17", 0.0596], ["2023-08-19", 0.0594], ["2023-08-20", 0.0586], ["2023-08-21", 0.0584], ["2023-08-21", 0.0582], ["2023-08-21", 0.0571], ["2023-08-21", 0.0571], ["2023-08-22", 0.0562], ["2023-08-23", 0.0533], ["2023-08-23", 0.0529], ["2023-08-23", 0.0536], ["2023-08-25", 0.0536], ["2023-08-26", 0.0531], ["2023-08-27", 0.0601], ["2023-08-27", 0.06], ["2023-08-28", 0.0602], ["2023-08-29", 0.0599], ["2023-08-30", 0.0598], ["2023-08-31", 0.0588], ["2023-09-02", 0.0583], ["2023-09-02", 0.064], ["2023-09-03", 0.0697], ["2023-09-04", 0.0697], ["2023-09-04", 0.0695], ["2023-09-05", 0.072], ["2023-09-06", 0.0716], ["2023-09-06", 0.0669], ["2023-09-07", 0.0664], ["2023-09-07", 0.0662], ["2023-09-07", 0.0662], ["2023-09-08", 0.0663], ["2023-09-08", 0.0668], ["2023-09-09", 0.0668], ["2023-09-10", 0.0667], ["2023-09-11", 0.0666], ["2023-09-11", 0.0662], ["2023-09-11", 0.0654], ["2023-09-11", 0.065], ["2023-09-12", 0.0649], ["2023-09-12", 0.0644], ["2023-09-13", 0.0642], ["2023-09-13", 0.0641], ["2023-09-14", 0.0672], ["2023-09-14", 0.0673], ["2023-09-15", 0.067], ["2023-09-15", 0.0672], ["2023-09-16", 0.0669], ["2023-09-16", 0.0667], ["2023-09-17", 0.0664], ["2023-09-18", 0.0664], ["2023-09-19", 0.0659], ["2023-09-19", 0.0658], ["2023-09-20", 0.0701], ["2023-09-20", 0.0701], ["2023-09-20", 0.0767], ["2023-09-21", 0.0632], ["2023-09-21", 0.0625], ["2023-09-22", 0.0625], ["2023-09-22", 0.0637], ["2023-09-23", 0.0632], ["2023-09-23", 0.0623], ["2023-09-24", 0.0622], ["2023-09-24", 0.0621], ["2023-09-24", 0.0616], ["2023-09-24", 0.0616], ["2023-09-24", 0.0617], ["2023-09-25", 0.061], ["2023-09-25", 0.0609], ["2023-09-25", 0.0605], ["2023-09-26", 0.0602], ["2023-09-26", 0.0597], ["2023-09-26", 0.0593], ["2023-09-26", 0.0591], ["2023-09-27", 0.0587], ["2023-09-27", 0.0587], ["2023-09-27", 0.0585], ["2023-09-27", 0.0585], ["2023-09-28", 0.0579], ["2023-09-28", 0.0575], ["2023-09-28", 0.0573], ["2023-09-29", 0.0573], ["2023-09-30", 0.0572], ["2023-09-30", 0.0571], ["2023-09-30", 0.0565], ["2023-09-30", 0.0565], ["2023-10-01", 0.0565]] | ["https://www.newsweek.com/china-rocket-force-changes-nuclear-xi-jinping-1816589", "https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/taiwan-long-game-best-solution-jude-blanchette-ryan-hass", "https://press.armywarcollege.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2670&context=parameters", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-59900139", "https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RBA594-1.html", "https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/China-up-close/Analysis-Xi-opens-Beidaihe-with-no-elders-but-plenty-of-challenges", "https://windy.app/forecast2/spot/438184/Taiwan+Strait+Taiwan+%E6%B5%B7%E6%B9%BE", "https://sundayguardianlive.com/top-five/pla-military-operation-possible-as-early-as-mid-august-against-a-small-taiwanese-island", "https://www.state.gov/briefings/department-press-briefing-september-5-2023/#post-476976-China", "https://www.ft.com/content/279a90a3-c550-40a2-9484-8a6eebca628b", "https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2023-Unclassified-Report.pdf", "https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4964710", "https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4976640", "https://www.businessinsider.com/china-invade-taiwan-war-50-chance-matt-pottinger-security-adviser-2023-4", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/21/taiwan-foreign-minister-warns-of-conflict-with-china-in-2027", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-16/china-won-t-be-able-to-attack-taiwan-in-near-future-milley-says", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/08/01/china-pla-rocket-force-purge-corruption-generals-xi/", "https://2017-2021.state.gov/chinas-military-aggression-in-the-indo-pacific-region/", "https://thechinaproject.com/2023/02/24/scraping-poison-from-the-bone-phrase-of-the-week/#:~:text=Scraping%20poison%20from%20the%20bone%20(%E5%88%AE%E9%AA%A8%E7%96%97%E6%AF%92%20gu%C4%81g%C7%94%20li%C3%A1od%C3%BA)%20is%20an%20idiom%20from%20the%20Three%20Kingdoms%20period%20(%E4%B8%89%E5%9B%BD%20s%C4%81ngu%C3%B3)%20in%20Chinese%20history%20between%20AD%20220%20and%20280.%20During%20this%20tumultuous%20time%20in%20history%2C%20China%20was%20divided%20into%20the%20kingdoms%20of%20W%C3%A8i%20%E9%AD%8F%2C%20Sh%C7%94%20%E8%9C%80%2C%20and%20W%C3%BA%20%E5%90%B4%20after%20the%20fall%20of%20the%20Han%20dynasty", "https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/china-army-rockets/", "https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/24/6492#", "https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4953402", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/21/matsu-islands-internet-cables-china-taiwan/", "https://www.ijpr.org/law-and-justice/2023-09-25/5-things-to-know-about-the-14th-amendment-effort-to-block-trump-from-the-presidency", "https://thediplomat.com/2022/09/china-deciphering-the-beidaihe-meeting/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-11-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2375 |
<p>
Democrats continue to push President Biden to cancel most, if not all, federal student loan debt (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/28/biden-says-hes-not-considering-50000-in-student-loan-forgiveness-.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/student-loans-as-biden-weighs-potential-forgiveness-181213775.html" target="_blank">Yahoo Finance</a>, <a href="https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/student-loans/student-loan-debt#total-federal-student-loan-debt" target="_blank">Nerd Wallet</a>). Any injunction sought to block such an executive order or federal legislation would be immaterial, as would the date that principal forgiveness would take effect.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 25 August 2022</span>: We are aware of President Biden's announcement yesterday regarding his plans for student loan forgiveness. As no official action has been taken yet as best we can tell, the question will remain open. We also received a clarification request asking if any executive action would count. The answer to that question is no, it must be a signed executive order. Legislation becoming law during the question's open period to also count.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2022-11-01 | Before 1 November 2022, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least ten million student loan borrowers? | 2022-04-29 | [["2022-04-29", 0.005], ["2022-04-29", 0.155], ["2022-04-29", 0.264], ["2022-04-29", 0.46], ["2022-04-30", 0.57625], ["2022-04-30", 0.6022222222222222], ["2022-04-30", 0.62], ["2022-04-30", 0.674], ["2022-04-30", 0.679], ["2022-04-30", 0.629], ["2022-04-30", 0.634], ["2022-05-01", 0.729], ["2022-05-01", 0.711], ["2022-05-01", 0.763], ["2022-05-01", 0.764], ["2022-05-01", 0.699], ["2022-05-01", 0.675], ["2022-05-02", 0.639], ["2022-05-02", 0.5945454545454546], ["2022-05-02", 0.5908333333333333], ["2022-05-02", 0.4975], ["2022-05-03", 0.4938461538461538], ["2022-05-03", 0.4928571428571429], ["2022-05-04", 0.48857142857142855], ["2022-05-04", 0.45666666666666667], ["2022-05-04", 0.446], ["2022-05-04", 0.435625], ["2022-05-05", 0.464375], ["2022-05-05", 0.4370588235294118], ["2022-05-05", 0.4258823529411765], ["2022-05-05", 0.4772222222222222], ["2022-05-06", 0.47833333333333333], ["2022-05-07", 0.4588888888888889], ["2022-05-08", 0.45666666666666667], ["2022-05-09", 0.43894736842105264], ["2022-05-10", 0.45631578947368423], ["2022-05-10", 0.4568421052631579], ["2022-05-11", 0.4625], ["2022-05-11", 0.4525], ["2022-05-11", 0.4805], ["2022-05-13", 0.4795238095238095], ["2022-05-13", 0.4838095238095238], ["2022-05-14", 0.4540909090909091], ["2022-05-14", 0.44772727272727275], ["2022-05-14", 0.4109090909090909], ["2022-05-15", 0.40954545454545455], ["2022-05-16", 0.42727272727272725], ["2022-05-16", 0.4159090909090909], ["2022-05-17", 0.44130434782608696], ["2022-05-18", 0.4379166666666667], ["2022-05-19", 0.44333333333333336], ["2022-05-20", 0.4476], ["2022-05-21", 0.4544], ["2022-05-23", 0.4552], ["2022-05-24", 0.458], ["2022-05-25", 0.4473076923076923], ["2022-05-25", 0.43615384615384617], ["2022-05-26", 0.46076923076923076], ["2022-05-27", 0.4723076923076923], ["2022-05-28", 0.49884615384615383], ["2022-05-28", 0.5351851851851852], ["2022-05-29", 0.5455555555555556], ["2022-05-30", 0.572962962962963], ["2022-05-30", 0.5785185185185185], ["2022-05-30", 0.5892592592592593], ["2022-05-30", 0.5933333333333334], ["2022-05-31", 0.6325], ["2022-05-31", 0.6542857142857142], ["2022-06-01", 0.6582142857142858], ["2022-06-02", 0.6646428571428571], ["2022-06-02", 0.6210344827586207], ["2022-06-03", 0.6358620689655172], ["2022-06-04", 0.6217241379310345], ["2022-06-05", 0.6458620689655172], ["2022-06-06", 0.6475862068965518], ["2022-06-06", 0.6375862068965518], ["2022-06-09", 0.6403448275862069], ["2022-06-09", 0.6533333333333333], ["2022-06-11", 0.642], ["2022-06-12", 0.639], ["2022-06-16", 0.636], ["2022-06-16", 0.63], ["2022-06-17", 0.622], ["2022-06-17", 0.6223333333333333], ["2022-06-18", 0.623], ["2022-06-18", 0.6313333333333333], ["2022-06-20", 0.6351612903225806], ["2022-06-30", 0.6254838709677419], ["2022-07-01", 0.6264516129032258], ["2022-07-01", 0.6277419354838709], ["2022-07-02", 0.603225806451613], ["2022-07-05", 0.5751612903225807], ["2022-07-06", 0.5732258064516129], ["2022-07-07", 0.5725806451612904], ["2022-07-09", 0.5719354838709677], ["2022-07-10", 0.5583870967741935], ["2022-07-10", 0.5558064516129032], ["2022-07-11", 0.5490322580645162], ["2022-07-12", 0.5438709677419354], ["2022-07-13", 0.534375], ["2022-07-14", 0.5053125], ["2022-07-15", 0.485], ["2022-07-15", 0.51125], ["2022-07-17", 0.5090625], ["2022-07-18", 0.5021875], ["2022-07-19", 0.4959375], ["2022-07-21", 0.495], ["2022-07-22", 0.490625], ["2022-07-24", 0.485], ["2022-07-26", 0.4871875], ["2022-07-26", 0.49125], ["2022-07-27", 0.4978125], ["2022-07-27", 0.505625], ["2022-07-27", 0.51125], ["2022-07-27", 0.510625], ["2022-07-28", 0.518125], ["2022-07-30", 0.5328125], ["2022-08-01", 0.5321875], ["2022-08-04", 0.536875], ["2022-08-05", 0.545625], ["2022-08-05", 0.536875], ["2022-08-07", 0.5251515151515151], ["2022-08-09", 0.5245454545454545], ["2022-08-10", 0.5087878787878788], ["2022-08-11", 0.5127272727272727], ["2022-08-11", 0.5118181818181818], ["2022-08-11", 0.5109090909090909], ["2022-08-12", 0.5124242424242424], ["2022-08-13", 0.5096969696969696], ["2022-08-15", 0.5103030303030303], ["2022-08-16", 0.4951515151515152], ["2022-08-17", 0.49272727272727274], ["2022-08-17", 0.4767647058823529], ["2022-08-19", 0.475], 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0.3922], ["2022-09-03", 0.3908], ["2022-09-04", 0.3894], ["2022-09-05", 0.3839], ["2022-09-07", 0.3761], ["2022-09-08", 0.3711], ["2022-09-11", 0.3561], ["2022-09-12", 0.3773], ["2022-09-12", 0.377], ["2022-09-14", 0.3765], ["2022-09-14", 0.3754], ["2022-09-16", 0.3724], ["2022-09-16", 0.375], ["2022-09-19", 0.3663], ["2022-09-20", 0.3642], ["2022-09-20", 0.3626], ["2022-09-21", 0.3626], ["2022-09-22", 0.3618], ["2022-09-25", 0.3554], ["2022-09-28", 0.3746], ["2022-09-29", 0.3567], ["2022-09-30", 0.3549], ["2022-10-01", 0.35], ["2022-10-03", 0.3163], ["2022-10-05", 0.2915], ["2022-10-05", 0.2635], ["2022-10-06", 0.263], ["2022-10-07", 0.2548], ["2022-10-09", 0.247], ["2022-10-10", 0.2415], ["2022-10-11", 0.2205], ["2022-10-12", 0.218], ["2022-10-13", 0.2127], ["2022-10-14", 0.2071], ["2022-10-14", 0.1838], ["2022-10-15", 0.1824], ["2022-10-17", 0.1798], ["2022-10-17", 0.1767], ["2022-10-17", 0.1517], ["2022-10-18", 0.1293], ["2022-10-18", 0.1281], ["2022-10-18", 0.121], ["2022-10-19", 0.1148], ["2022-10-20", 0.1179], ["2022-10-21", 0.1412], ["2022-10-22", 0.1426], ["2022-10-22", 0.1189], ["2022-10-22", 0.1186], ["2022-10-24", 0.133], ["2022-10-25", 0.1404], ["2022-10-25", 0.1393], ["2022-10-25", 0.1507], ["2022-10-25", 0.1517], ["2022-10-26", 0.15], ["2022-10-26", 0.1415], ["2022-10-27", 0.1426], ["2022-10-27", 0.1413], ["2022-10-28", 0.1372], ["2022-10-28", 0.136], ["2022-10-28", 0.135], ["2022-10-28", 0.1281], ["2022-10-29", 0.1255], ["2022-10-29", 0.1031], ["2022-10-29", 0.1008], ["2022-10-30", 0.114], ["2022-10-30", 0.1146], ["2022-10-30", 0.113], ["2022-10-30", 0.1088], ["2022-10-31", 0.1154], ["2022-10-31", 0.1146], ["2022-10-31", 0.115], ["2022-10-31", 0.1148], ["2022-10-31", 0.1117], ["2022-10-31", 0.1289], ["2022-11-01", 0.1256], ["2022-11-01", 0.1244], ["2022-11-01", 0.1244]] | ["https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/11/student-loan-forgiveness-is-now-tax-free-is-cancellation-coming-.html", "https://thehill.com/news/wire/3509803-heres-who-qualifies-for-the-25b-in-student-loan-forgiveness-already-approved/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2022/05/27/biden-student-debt-borrower/", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/16/education-dept-cancels-3point9-billion-in-student-loans-for-itt-tech.html", "https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/28/biden-considering-canceling-some-student-debt-00028663", "https://dqydj.com/average-median-top-household-income-percentiles/", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2022/07/29/student-loan-forgiveness-internal-documents-reveal-historic-student-loan-relief-but-biden-must-approve/?sh=5bd3c6c51403", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2022/07/09/biden-student-loans-interest-capitalization-limits/", "https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/27/politics/student-loans-joe-biden/index.html", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/careersandeducation/biden-is-reportedly-delaying-his-broad-student-loan-forgiveness-announcement-until-late-summer-e2-80-94-closer-to-when-debt-payments-are-set-to-resume/ar-AAY9i2P?pfr=1", "https://kalshi.com/events/SDEBT/markets/SDEBT-23JAN01", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/adamminsky/2022/06/14/5-things-borrowers-should-know-about-bidens-25-billion-in-student-loan-forgiveness/?sh=2238857ff9cf", "https://www.theregreview.org/2017/01/06/herrine-future-educations-power-to-cancel-debt/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PQ609yUxqAI", "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/STATUTE-72/pdf/STATUTE-72-Pg1580.pdf", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/22/us/politics/biden-student-debt-inflation.html", "https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/08/24/fact-sheet-president-biden-announces-student-loan-relief-for-borrowers-who-need-it-most/", "https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/", "https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2022/08/24/press-briefing-by-press-secretary-karine-jean-pierre-domestic-policy-advisor-susan-rice-and-nec-deputy-director-bharat-ramamurti/", "https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/01/biden-administration-student-loan-debt-00036572", "https://www.justice.gov/olc/file/1528451/download", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/adamminsky/2022/07/26/did-the-biden-administration-just-drop-a-big-hint-on-student-loan-forgiveness/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwkQ0X7HR3Y", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/14/opinion/student-debt-cancel.html", "http://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/22/americans-are-concerned-student-loan-forgiveness-will-worsen-inflation.html"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-12-29 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2496 |
<p>After former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled Sri Lanka and resigned his office amid widespread economic protests, the Parliament of Sri Lanka elected former Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe to serve out the remainder of Rajapaksa's term (<a href="https://f24.my/8maE" target="_blank">France 24</a>, <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/wickremesinghe-sworn-in-as-sri-lanka-s-president-/6667802.html" target="_blank">Voice of America</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2022-12-29 | Will Ranil Wickremesinghe cease to be the president of Sri Lanka before 29 December 2022? | 2022-07-28 | [["2022-07-29", 0.01], ["2022-07-29", 0.38], ["2022-07-29", 0.35333333333333333], ["2022-07-29", 0.465], ["2022-07-29", 0.48], ["2022-07-29", 0.5166666666666667], ["2022-07-30", 0.4828571428571429], ["2022-07-30", 0.4725], ["2022-07-30", 0.4225], ["2022-07-30", 0.37555555555555553], ["2022-07-30", 0.37444444444444447], ["2022-07-31", 0.342], ["2022-07-31", 0.292], ["2022-08-01", 0.277], ["2022-08-01", 0.247], ["2022-08-01", 0.216], ["2022-08-01", 0.217], ["2022-08-01", 0.244], ["2022-08-02", 0.245], ["2022-08-02", 0.24], ["2022-08-02", 0.235], ["2022-08-02", 0.285], ["2022-08-02", 0.295], ["2022-08-02", 0.298], ["2022-08-02", 0.294], ["2022-08-02", 0.344], ["2022-08-03", 0.365], ["2022-08-03", 0.37], ["2022-08-04", 0.353], ["2022-08-04", 0.353], ["2022-08-04", 0.382], ["2022-08-05", 0.347], ["2022-08-07", 0.344], ["2022-08-07", 0.344], ["2022-08-08", 0.332], ["2022-08-08", 0.319], ["2022-08-08", 0.319], ["2022-08-09", 0.3], ["2022-08-10", 0.252], ["2022-08-11", 0.181], ["2022-08-12", 0.171], ["2022-08-12", 0.153], ["2022-08-12", 0.141], ["2022-08-14", 0.134], ["2022-08-15", 0.135], ["2022-08-17", 0.132], ["2022-08-17", 0.129], ["2022-08-20", 0.12], ["2022-08-21", 0.116], ["2022-08-23", 0.113], ["2022-08-24", 0.104], ["2022-08-24", 0.103], ["2022-08-26", 0.1009], ["2022-08-27", 0.0918], ["2022-08-27", 0.1675], ["2022-08-27", 0.1758], ["2022-08-31", 0.1733], ["2022-08-31", 0.2192], ["2022-08-31", 0.2292], ["2022-09-01", 0.2292], ["2022-09-01", 0.2231], ["2022-09-01", 0.2154], ["2022-09-01", 0.2231], ["2022-09-01", 0.2571], ["2022-09-01", 0.2743], ["2022-09-01", 0.275], ["2022-09-01", 0.2779], ["2022-09-01", 0.2727], ["2022-09-01", 0.2793], ["2022-09-02", 0.3119], ["2022-09-02", 0.2644], ["2022-09-02", 0.2638], ["2022-09-02", 0.265], ["2022-09-02", 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["2022-12-22", 0.0258], ["2022-12-22", 0.0258], ["2022-12-22", 0.0254], ["2022-12-24", 0.0244], ["2022-12-25", 0.0244], ["2022-12-26", 0.0204], ["2022-12-26", 0.0204], ["2022-12-26", 0.02], ["2022-12-26", 0.0168], ["2022-12-28", 0.0168], ["2022-12-29", 0.0162], ["2022-12-29", 0.0162]] | ["https://apnews.com/article/sri-lanka-ranil-wickremesinghe-international-monetary-fund-government-and-politics-e332e9df4c6e5ea0cafc224c1aa233c3", "https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/LKA", "https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/20/asia/sri-lanka-presidential-election-result-intl-hnk/index.html", "https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220816-sri-lanka-to-end-state-of-emergency-president", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_heads_of_state_of_Sri_Lanka", "https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/imf-agreement-pushed-back-to-september-says-sri-lanka-president-ranil-wickremesinghe-report-3209976", "https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/21/sri-lanka-likes-to-laugh-but-our-political-reforms-are-no-joke", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-62202901", "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/sri-lanka-president-says-its-not-right-time-rajapaksa-return-after-fleeing-2022-07-31/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/sri-lanka-imf-reach-preliminary-agreement-29-billion-loan-2022-09-01/", "https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-global/sri-lanka-economic-crisis-imf-funds-china-8328986/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-06-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1840 |
<p>A record amount of renewable energy was consumed in 2019, though COVID-19 took its toll on overall energy consumption in the Spring of 2020 (<a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45516" target="_blank">EIA 19 October 2020</a>, <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44276" target="_blank">EIA 30 June 2020</a>). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the EIA for "Total" under "Renewable Energy" (<a href="https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T01.03" target="_blank">EIA TABLE 1.3 PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE</a>). In May 2019, the U.S. consumed 1.059944 quadrillion Btus of energy from renewable sources.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p><p></p><p><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 4 January 2021</span>: The EIA figure for "Total" under "Renewable Energy" has been slightly revised since the question was launched. To be clear, the outcome will be determined using data as reported for May 2019 and May 2021 when May 2021 data are first reported by the EIA.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-08-27 | Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)? | 2020-11-12 | [["2020-11-13", 1.0], ["2020-11-13", 0.9], ["2020-11-13", 0.95], ["2020-11-13", 0.975], ["2020-11-13", 1.0], ["2020-11-13", 1.0], ["2020-11-13", 1.0], ["2020-11-13", 1.0], ["2020-11-13", 1.0], 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"https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-2020-advance-estimate", "https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/renewable/amid-pandemic-u-s-renewable-power-sources-have-topped-coal-for-40-days/75545488", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_of_three_(statistics", "https://cleantechnica.com/2020/11/30/renewables-70-of-new-us-power-capacity-in-2020-solar-43/", "https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T01.01#/?f=M&start=200306&end=202011&charted=14", "https://web.archive.org/web/20101115164941/http://www.michigan.gov/gov/0,1607,7-168-23442_21974-245611--,00.html", "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/data/browser/#/?v=3&f=M&s=000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000&start=201701&end=202212&linechart=TETCFUEL~RETCBUS&ctype=linechart&maptype=0&id=&map=", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1253612", "https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T01.03", "https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/mer.pdf", "https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz#Anschluss-_und_Abnahmepflicht", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jennifer_Granholm#Speculation_of_a_return_to_office", "https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html", "https://www.drought.gov/historical-information?dataset=1&selectedDateUSDM=20100810&selectedDateSpi=20210201", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1244606", "https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap.aspx", "https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T01.03#/?f=M&start=201708&end=202011&charted=1-2-3-5-12", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Department_of_Energy#Budget", "https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/TimeSeries.aspx", "https://www.ncsl.org/research/energy/renewable-portfolio-standards.aspx", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1253610"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2023-10-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2678 |
<p>Giorgia Meloni was sworn in as the first female prime minister of Italy in October 2022 amid high energy prices, the war in Ukraine, and various domestic issues (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2022/11/18/italians-will-soon-discover-who-the-real-giorgia-meloni-is" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-10-22/italys-meloni-sworn-in-at-head-of-right-wing-government" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/italy-president-sergio-mattarella-calm-giorgia-meloni-fight-france-emmanuel-macron-migrants/" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/can-meloni-hold-together-italys-fractious-governing-coalition-while-staying-tough-on-russia/" target="_blank">Atlantic Council</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? 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255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-10-01 | Will Giorgia Meloni cease to be the prime minister of Italy before 1 October 2023? | 2022-12-23 | [["2022-12-23", 0.38], ["2022-12-23", 0.365], ["2022-12-23", 0.26], ["2022-12-23", 0.2163], ["2022-12-23", 0.1922], ["2022-12-23", 0.1591], ["2022-12-24", 0.1462], ["2022-12-24", 0.1333], ["2022-12-24", 0.1471], ["2022-12-24", 0.1494], ["2022-12-24", 0.1425], ["2022-12-24", 0.1464], ["2022-12-24", 0.1383], ["2022-12-24", 0.13], ["2022-12-24", 0.1252], ["2022-12-24", 0.1559], ["2022-12-24", 0.1771], ["2022-12-24", 0.1653], ["2022-12-25", 0.1709], ["2022-12-25", 0.1683], ["2022-12-25", 0.1605], ["2022-12-25", 0.1805], ["2022-12-26", 0.1763], ["2022-12-26", 0.1817], ["2022-12-26", 0.1814], ["2022-12-26", 0.1822], ["2022-12-26", 0.2], ["2022-12-26", 0.2136], ["2022-12-26", 0.2133], ["2022-12-26", 0.2135], ["2022-12-26", 0.2058], ["2022-12-26", 0.2281], ["2022-12-26", 0.2275], 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applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2552 | <p>Various group continue to voice concern that Iran is developing a nuclear weapons capability (<a href="https://apnews.com/article/middle-east-iran-nuclear-united-nations-94b679d35c3be8524628579de087918f" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-08-31/biden-israels-lapid-speak-amid-discussions-on-possible-iran-nuclear-deal" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>). A public statement from a US military or federal agency would count. The testing or detonation of a nuclear device would not be necessary for resolution. A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (<a href="https://www.mass.gov/service-details/nuclear-regulatory-commission-nrc-fact-sheet-on-dirty-bombs" target="_blank">Mass.gov</a>). "Roughly even chance" or "roughly even odds" without an explicit statement that the probability is greater than 50% would not count. For further information on US intelligence community terminology on probabilities and confidence, see Intelligence Community Directive 203 (<a href="https://fas.org/irp/dni/icd/icd-203.pdf" target="_blank">Federation of American Scientists</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Before 1 July 2024, will the US, IAEA, and/or a UN agency publicly state that it believes it more likely than not that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon capable of being detonated? | 2022-09-22 | [["2022-09-23", 0.01], ["2022-09-23", 0.025], ["2022-09-23", 0.0167], ["2022-09-23", 0.0125], ["2022-09-23", 0.034], ["2022-09-23", 0.044], ["2022-09-23", 0.066], ["2022-09-23", 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["2023-11-29", 0.199], ["2023-11-29", 0.197], ["2023-12-01", 0.1968], ["2023-12-03", 0.1968], ["2023-12-03", 0.1968], ["2023-12-09", 0.197], ["2023-12-10", 0.1975], ["2023-12-11", 0.1975], ["2023-12-11", 0.197], ["2023-12-13", 0.197], ["2023-12-13", 0.1995], ["2023-12-15", 0.2005], ["2023-12-19", 0.2005], ["2023-12-19", 0.2005], ["2023-12-21", 0.1993], ["2023-12-21", 0.198], ["2023-12-22", 0.1995], ["2023-12-24", 0.1995], ["2023-12-26", 0.1995], ["2023-12-27", 0.1946], ["2023-12-28", 0.1946], ["2023-12-28", 0.1983], ["2023-12-30", 0.1983], ["2024-01-01", 0.2174], ["2024-01-02", 0.2233], ["2024-01-02", 0.2255], ["2024-01-03", 0.2264], ["2024-01-03", 0.2274], ["2024-01-04", 0.236], ["2024-01-05", 0.2365], ["2024-01-05", 0.2356], ["2024-01-06", 0.2367], ["2024-01-06", 0.2367], ["2024-01-06", 0.2314], ["2024-01-07", 0.2295], ["2024-01-07", 0.2316], ["2024-01-07", 0.2264], ["2024-01-08", 0.2264], ["2024-01-09", 0.2267], ["2024-01-09", 0.2256], ["2024-01-10", 0.2253], ["2024-01-12", 0.2226], ["2024-01-13", 0.2226]] | ["https://www.iranwatch.org/our-publications/articles-reports/irans-nuclear-timetable-weapon-potential", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Israel", "https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/analysis-of-iaea-iran-verification-and-monitoring-report-may-2023", "https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2023/10/16/iran-may-exploit-israels-war-to-sprint-to-nuclear-weapons/", "https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/23/06/gov2023-24.pdf", "https://apnews.com/article/iran-nuclear-program-iaea-answers-uranium-49d750f406b9321b266f9641b00fed75", "https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/23/09/gov2023-39.pdf", "https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12106", "https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/iran-slows-buildup-of-near-weapons-grade-enriched-uranium-492df473", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/24/us/politics/syria-us-contractor-killed-iran-drone.html", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/confidential-u-n-nuclear-watchdog-report-iran-slows-enrichment-of-near-weapons-grade-uranium/ar-AA1gdbSY", "https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/24103872/irans-nuclear-program-tehrans-compliance-with-international-obligations-oct-31-2023.pdf", "https://www.reuters.com/world/eu-maintains-restrictive-measures-against-iran-under-non-proliferation-sanctions-2023-10-17/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/14/us/politics/biden-iran-nuclear-program.html", "https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/03/iran-united-states-nuclear-bomb-weapon-israel/673268/", "https://en.mehrnews.com/news/207287/Iran-to-hold-military-defense-coop-without-any-restriction", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/10/us/politics/iran-us-prisoner-swap.html", "https://apnews.com/article/iran-uranium-enrichment-iaea-us-tensions-af4a183a2e97375708a494d5324c2836", "https://www.axios.com/2023/09/16/iran-iaea-nuclear-inspectors-grossi", "https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-754467", "https://www.heritage.org/middle-east/commentary/irans-breakout-timeline-has-reached-zero", "https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-754386", "https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-751863", "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-enriches-more-uranium-gaza-war-rages-us-vote-looms-2023-11-17/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Checkmate#Etymology"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | 2022-12-30 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2516 |
<p>Apple, one of the largest publicly traded companies in the world, briefly hit $3 trillion in market capitalization in January 2022 during intraday trading, but has never closed at that level (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/03/apple-becomes-first-us-company-to-reach-3-trillion-market-cap.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/investing/market-capitalization-defined/" target="_blank">Investopedia - Market Capitalization</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Companies Market Cap website (<a href="https://companiesmarketcap.com/apple/marketcap/" target="_blank">Companies Market Cap</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. 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255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-01-02 | Will Apple's end-of-day closing market capitalization reach or exceed $3 trillion before 31 December 2022? | 2022-08-18 | [["2022-08-19", 0.6], ["2022-08-19", 0.55], ["2022-08-19", 0.5333], ["2022-08-19", 0.5], ["2022-08-19", 0.404], ["2022-08-19", 0.3867], ["2022-08-19", 0.3929], ["2022-08-19", 0.3638], ["2022-08-19", 0.3333], ["2022-08-19", 0.359], ["2022-08-19", 0.4173], ["2022-08-20", 0.3867], ["2022-08-20", 0.3954], ["2022-08-20", 0.3729], ["2022-08-20", 0.4179], ["2022-08-20", 0.415], ["2022-08-20", 0.4207], ["2022-08-20", 0.4506], ["2022-08-20", 0.4829], ["2022-08-20", 0.4888], ["2022-08-20", 0.4839], ["2022-08-20", 0.4984], ["2022-08-21", 0.5135], ["2022-08-21", 0.519], ["2022-08-21", 0.5038], ["2022-08-22", 0.5045], ["2022-08-22", 0.5065], ["2022-08-22", 0.5146], ["2022-08-22", 0.504], ["2022-08-22", 0.518], ["2022-08-22", 0.53], ["2022-08-22", 0.5355], 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0.0683], ["2022-11-12", 0.0693], ["2022-11-14", 0.0717], ["2022-11-14", 0.0703], ["2022-11-14", 0.0724], ["2022-11-14", 0.0731], ["2022-11-15", 0.1007], ["2022-11-15", 0.1037], ["2022-11-15", 0.1053], ["2022-11-15", 0.107], ["2022-11-15", 0.1083], ["2022-11-17", 0.1207], ["2022-11-17", 0.1203], ["2022-11-18", 0.1203], ["2022-11-19", 0.121], ["2022-11-19", 0.1171], ["2022-11-19", 0.1165], ["2022-11-19", 0.1165], ["2022-11-21", 0.1148], ["2022-11-21", 0.1148], ["2022-11-21", 0.1135], ["2022-11-22", 0.1142], ["2022-11-22", 0.1129], ["2022-11-23", 0.1113], ["2022-11-23", 0.1116], ["2022-11-24", 0.1119], ["2022-11-24", 0.1123], ["2022-11-25", 0.1116], ["2022-11-25", 0.1116], ["2022-11-26", 0.111], ["2022-11-26", 0.1097], ["2022-11-27", 0.1063], ["2022-11-27", 0.1069], ["2022-11-27", 0.1056], ["2022-11-28", 0.105], ["2022-11-29", 0.1047], ["2022-11-29", 0.105], ["2022-11-29", 0.0928], ["2022-11-30", 0.0909], ["2022-11-30", 0.0909], ["2022-11-30", 0.0897], ["2022-11-30", 0.087], ["2022-11-30", 0.0879], ["2022-12-01", 0.0882], ["2022-12-01", 0.0879], ["2022-12-01", 0.0864], ["2022-12-01", 0.0855], ["2022-12-02", 0.0855], ["2022-12-03", 0.0852], ["2022-12-03", 0.0848], ["2022-12-04", 0.0842], ["2022-12-04", 0.0839], ["2022-12-04", 0.0839], ["2022-12-05", 0.0839], ["2022-12-05", 0.0839], ["2022-12-06", 0.0836], ["2022-12-06", 0.0827], ["2022-12-07", 0.0803], ["2022-12-08", 0.08], ["2022-12-08", 0.0559], ["2022-12-09", 0.0553], ["2022-12-09", 0.055], ["2022-12-11", 0.0544], ["2022-12-11", 0.0541], ["2022-12-11", 0.0506], ["2022-12-11", 0.0506], ["2022-12-11", 0.0503], ["2022-12-12", 0.05], ["2022-12-12", 0.0497], ["2022-12-12", 0.0232], ["2022-12-12", 0.0224], ["2022-12-12", 0.0194], ["2022-12-12", 0.0197], ["2022-12-13", 0.01], ["2022-12-13", 0.0097], ["2022-12-13", 0.0094], ["2022-12-14", 0.0377], ["2022-12-14", 0.0371], ["2022-12-15", 0.0386], ["2022-12-16", 0.0377], ["2022-12-16", 0.0374], ["2022-12-17", 0.0371], ["2022-12-17", 0.0371], ["2022-12-17", 0.0366], ["2022-12-17", 0.0356], ["2022-12-19", 0.0356], ["2022-12-19", 0.0353], ["2022-12-19", 0.0353], ["2022-12-19", 0.0339], ["2022-12-19", 0.0336], ["2022-12-19", 0.0333], ["2022-12-20", 0.0324], ["2022-12-20", 0.0311], ["2022-12-20", 0.0311], ["2022-12-20", 0.0324], ["2022-12-20", 0.0324], ["2022-12-21", 0.0316], ["2022-12-23", 0.0316], ["2022-12-23", 0.0305], ["2022-12-23", 0.0303], ["2022-12-23", 0.0297], ["2022-12-23", 0.0295], ["2022-12-23", 0.03], ["2022-12-23", 0.0295], ["2022-12-24", 0.0292], ["2022-12-24", 0.0284], ["2022-12-25", 0.0297], ["2022-12-26", 0.0303], ["2022-12-26", 0.0303], ["2022-12-28", 0.0303], ["2022-12-29", 0.0303], ["2022-12-29", 0.0303], ["2022-12-30", 0.0303]] | ["https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oVofe7dZ5Cg", "https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/25/politics/mitch-mcconnell-physical-therapy-rehab/index.html", "https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2022-08-21/when-will-apple-announce-the-iphone-14-when-will-the-iphone-14-go-on-sale-l73dt7i1", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/28/apple-stock-down-on-report-of-iphone-production-shortage.html", "https://www.reuters.com/technology/apple-worsens-selloff-beleaguered-growth-stocks-2022-09-28/", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2415-what-will-president-biden-s-approval-rating-be-as-of-31-october-2022-according-to-fivethirtyeight", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4lK4OLPDdL4", "https://www.gsmarena.com/mingchi_kuo_demand_for_iphone_14_plus_weaker_than_for_mini_14_pro_max_surpasses_its_predecessor-news-55752.php", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1514573", "https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=320193&owner=exclude", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/24/apple-event-2022-invites-sent-for-sept-7-new-iphones-expected.html", "https://companiesmarketcap.com/apple/marketcap/", "https://seekingalpha.com/news/3314997-apple-rushes-to-fix-os-security-issue"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-07-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2754 |
<p>Live Nation Entertainment, of which Ticketmaster is a part, is facing heavy scrutiny for its botched release of Taylor Swift concert tickets in late 2022 amid claims that it is a monopoly in violation of federal antitrust law (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/25/the-live-nation-and-ticketmaster-monopoly-of-live-entertainment.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ticketmaster-live-nation-under-investigation-by-department-of-justice/" target="_blank">CBS News</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/ticketmaster-entertainment-inc-amy-klobuchar-minnesota-business-fd6bd24fbe88a259aa83496a898a05f9" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.justice.gov/atr/antitrust-laws-and-you" target="_blank">Department of Justice - Antitrust Laws and You</a>). Complaints or charges under seal would only count upon being unsealed, and complaints filed in court or as an administrative action would count.</p><p></p><p><i>This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/ubs/" target="_blank">here</a> for more details.</i></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-07-01 | Will the US Department of Justice and/or the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) file either a civil complaint or a criminal charge against Live Nation Entertainment for antitrust violations before 1 July 2023? | 2023-02-03 | [["2023-02-03", 0.97], ["2023-02-03", 0.795], ["2023-02-03", 0.7533], ["2023-02-03", 0.7275], ["2023-02-03", 0.782], ["2023-02-04", 0.6517], ["2023-02-04", 0.5729], ["2023-02-04", 0.5013], ["2023-02-04", 0.4589], ["2023-02-04", 0.4567], ["2023-02-04", 0.4567], ["2023-02-04", 0.451], ["2023-02-05", 0.41], ["2023-02-05", 0.3883], ["2023-02-05", 0.405], ["2023-02-05", 0.3931], ["2023-02-05", 0.3885], ["2023-02-05", 0.375], ["2023-02-05", 0.35], ["2023-02-05", 0.3433], ["2023-02-05", 0.3347], ["2023-02-05", 0.32], ["2023-02-06", 0.3341], ["2023-02-06", 0.2913], ["2023-02-06", 0.2575], ["2023-02-06", 0.2147], ["2023-02-07", 0.2429], ["2023-02-07", 0.26], ["2023-02-07", 0.2486], ["2023-02-07", 0.2354], ["2023-02-08", 0.2354], ["2023-02-08", 0.2327], ["2023-02-08", 0.2318], ["2023-02-08", 0.3045], ["2023-02-08", 0.3045], ["2023-02-09", 0.273], ["2023-02-09", 0.249], ["2023-02-09", 0.254], ["2023-02-10", 0.251], ["2023-02-12", 0.252], ["2023-02-12", 0.2445], ["2023-02-13", 0.2909], ["2023-02-13", 0.3345], ["2023-02-15", 0.3345], ["2023-02-15", 0.3355], ["2023-02-16", 0.37], ["2023-02-18", 0.3692], ["2023-02-18", 0.37], ["2023-02-18", 0.42], ["2023-02-19", 0.4242], ["2023-02-20", 0.3867], ["2023-02-25", 0.3875], ["2023-02-25", 0.365], ["2023-02-26", 0.355], ["2023-02-26", 0.3315], ["2023-02-27", 0.3308], ["2023-02-27", 0.33], ["2023-02-28", 0.3262], ["2023-02-28", 0.3185], ["2023-02-28", 0.2931], ["2023-03-01", 0.3286], ["2023-03-01", 0.3021], ["2023-03-02", 0.295], ["2023-03-03", 0.295], ["2023-03-03", 0.2957], ["2023-03-04", 0.315], ["2023-03-04", 0.3029], ["2023-03-05", 0.2807], ["2023-03-05", 0.312], ["2023-03-06", 0.2787], ["2023-03-07", 0.278], ["2023-03-08", 0.2767], ["2023-03-10", 0.2427], ["2023-03-10", 0.2427], ["2023-03-10", 0.2427], ["2023-03-12", 0.242], ["2023-03-15", 0.2387], ["2023-03-20", 0.236], ["2023-03-22", 0.2353], ["2023-03-23", 0.232], ["2023-03-26", 0.272], ["2023-03-29", 0.262], ["2023-03-29", 0.2607], ["2023-03-31", 0.2938], ["2023-04-05", 0.3063], ["2023-04-07", 0.3025], ["2023-04-10", 0.3013], ["2023-04-11", 0.2969], ["2023-04-15", 0.2775], ["2023-04-15", 0.2763], ["2023-04-16", 0.2725], ["2023-04-17", 0.2688], ["2023-04-18", 0.2563], ["2023-04-25", 0.2888], ["2023-04-30", 0.2813], ["2023-05-01", 0.2647], ["2023-05-01", 0.2565], ["2023-05-04", 0.25], ["2023-05-04", 0.2488], ["2023-05-05", 0.2459], ["2023-05-06", 0.2247], ["2023-05-07", 0.22], ["2023-05-08", 0.2171], ["2023-05-12", 0.2111], ["2023-05-13", 0.2128], ["2023-05-14", 0.2039], ["2023-05-14", 0.1994], ["2023-05-14", 0.1983], ["2023-05-18", 0.1844], ["2023-05-20", 0.1828], ["2023-05-21", 0.1783], ["2023-05-22", 0.1733], ["2023-05-22", 0.1672], ["2023-05-22", 0.1661], ["2023-05-23", 0.165], ["2023-05-24", 0.1289], ["2023-05-25", 0.115], ["2023-05-26", 0.1144], ["2023-05-27", 0.1128], ["2023-05-28", 0.1122], ["2023-05-28", 0.1083], ["2023-05-29", 0.105], ["2023-05-31", 0.0939], ["2023-06-02", 0.0933], ["2023-06-02", 0.0939], ["2023-06-03", 0.0594], ["2023-06-04", 0.0568], ["2023-06-04", 0.0537], ["2023-06-04", 0.05], ["2023-06-05", 0.0526], ["2023-06-05", 0.0495], ["2023-06-06", 0.0495], ["2023-06-06", 0.0489], ["2023-06-06", 0.0458], ["2023-06-06", 0.0463], ["2023-06-11", 0.0447], ["2023-06-11", 0.0421], ["2023-06-12", 0.0416], ["2023-06-12", 0.0384], ["2023-06-13", 0.0358], ["2023-06-14", 0.0326], ["2023-06-16", 0.0316], ["2023-06-16", 0.0305], ["2023-06-17", 0.0311], ["2023-06-17", 0.0305], ["2023-06-18", 0.0263], ["2023-06-18", 0.0263], ["2023-06-19", 0.0242], ["2023-06-21", 0.0237], ["2023-06-21", 0.0232], ["2023-06-21", 0.022], ["2023-06-22", 0.022], ["2023-06-22", 0.022], ["2023-06-22", 0.0195], ["2023-06-22", 0.019], ["2023-06-23", 0.014], ["2023-06-24", 0.014], ["2023-06-24", 0.009], ["2023-06-25", 0.0065], ["2023-06-27", 0.0062], ["2023-06-28", 0.0057], ["2023-06-28", 0.0057], ["2023-06-29", 0.0055], ["2023-06-29", 0.005], ["2023-06-30", 0.005], ["2023-06-30", 0.005], ["2023-06-30", 0.0036], ["2023-07-01", 0.0036]] | ["https://deadline.com/2021/04/ticketmaster-live-nation-joe-biden-justice-department-ftc-1234740234/", "https://news.yahoo.com/everyones-mad-at-ticketmaster-but-will-anything-change-144600016.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/18/technology/live-nation-ticketmaster-investigation-taylor-swift.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_Shkreli", "https://news.yahoo.com/top-senators-press-further-doj-174642761.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall", "https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_09d852f6a7701d5b9ea7f0c46044762c/livenationentertainment/db/670/6248/earnings_release_pdf/LYV+4Q22+ER+Final+v2%5B30%5D.pdf", "https://www.klobuchar.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/news-releases?ID=AFDE2977-DB59-42C3-B065-AEDEF08664BC", "https://www.c-span.org/video/?284273-1/ticketmaster-live-nation-merger", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUdd090Nj14", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/ticketmaster-live-nation-agree-all-in-prices-part-biden-war-junk-fees-2023-06-15/", "https://www.aegpresents.com/", "https://www.reuters.com/legal/legalindustry/live-nation-hires-ex-latham-antitrust-chief-dan-wall-2023-02-06/", "https://www.lexisnexis.com/LegalNewsRoom/antitrust/b/antitrust-unfair-competition-law-blog/posts/cross-subsidization-for-purpose-of-enhanced-grocery-sales-through-below-cost-gasoline-discounts-found-not-to-violate-california-unfair-practices-act", "http://www.economicliberties.us/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/BreakUpTicketmaster-JunkFeeComment.pdf", "https://www.livenation.com/venue-sitemap/j", "https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/18/live-nation-ticketmaster-antitrust-violations-taylor-swift-00069564", "https://www.ticketnews.com/2022/12/ftc-chair-slams-live-nation-ticketmaster-as-too-big-to-care/", "https://www.justice.gov/atr/antitrust-laws-and-you", "https://www.ftc.gov/policy-notices/open-government/data-sets", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jonathan_Kanter", "https://www.gamesindustry.biz/ftc-has-looked-into-epics-handling-of-childrens-personal-information", "https://www.justice.gov/doj/statistics-available-department-justice", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/petercohan/2022/12/20/taylor-swift-could-earn-620-million-on-eras-tour-while-ticketmaster-makes-a-pittance/?sh=4d2be3567fe1", "https://www.usatoday.com/story/entertainment/music/2022/08/17/springsteen-ticketmaster-dynamic-pricing-infuriates-music-fans/10310415002/", "https://www.justice.gov/d9/pages/attachments/2015/10/27/workload-statistics.pdf"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2020-06-11 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1564 |
<p>Coachella, an annual music festival that typically takes place in April, was rescheduled in 2020 due to concerns over COVID-19 (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/arts/music/coronavirus-coachella-postponed.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/10/entertainment/coachella-postponed-coronavirus/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>). The festival is now scheduled for 9-11 and 16-18 October. For the purposes of this question, a partial cancellation and/or partial postponement would not count.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 14 April 2020: Any online activities branded as Coachella or otherwise are immaterial to the outcome of this forecasting question.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>
| 2020-06-11 | Before 9 October 2020, will the music festival Coachella, which has been rescheduled for October 2020, be postponed or canceled? | 2020-03-19 | [["2020-03-20", 0.145], ["2020-03-20", 0.145], ["2020-03-20", 0.145], ["2020-03-20", 0.15], ["2020-03-20", 0.15], ["2020-03-20", 0.15], ["2020-03-20", 0.2], ["2020-03-21", 0.2], ["2020-03-21", 0.375], ["2020-03-21", 0.455], ["2020-03-21", 0.505], ["2020-03-21", 0.58], ["2020-03-21", 0.65], ["2020-03-21", 0.65], ["2020-03-21", 0.65], ["2020-03-21", 0.65], ["2020-03-21", 0.65], ["2020-03-21", 0.675], ["2020-03-21", 0.65], ["2020-03-21", 0.65], ["2020-03-21", 0.575], ["2020-03-21", 0.65], ["2020-03-22", 0.575], ["2020-03-22", 0.725], ["2020-03-22", 0.7], ["2020-03-22", 0.7], ["2020-03-22", 0.65], ["2020-03-22", 0.65], ["2020-03-22", 0.635], ["2020-03-22", 0.59], ["2020-03-22", 0.59], ["2020-03-22", 0.62], ["2020-03-22", 0.635], ["2020-03-22", 0.65], ["2020-03-22", 0.65], ["2020-03-22", 0.635], ["2020-03-22", 0.635], ["2020-03-22", 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True | 2021-11-13 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2106 |
<p>A majority of the "Paris Rulebook" was adopted at COP24 in 2018, but unresolved issues remain (<a href="https://news.sky.com/story/with-100-days-to-cop26-what-are-these-climate-talks-and-why-are-they-so-important-12361324" target="_blank">Sky News</a>, <a href="https://www.wri.org/paris-rulebook" target="_blank">World Resources Institute</a>, <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/july-ministerial-chairs-summary" target="_blank">Gov.uk</a>, <a href="https://www.edf.org/climate/implementing-paris-climate-agreement" target="_blank">Environmental Defense Fund</a>). COP26 is scheduled for 31 October 2021 to 12 November 2021 (<a href="https://ukcop26.org/" target="_blank">UKCOP26.org</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-11-14 | Will the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) announce the finalization of the "Paris Rulebook," the rules for implementing the 2015 Paris Agreement, before 16 November 2021? | 2021-08-26 | [["2021-08-27", 0.01], ["2021-08-27", 0.255], ["2021-08-27", 0.01], ["2021-08-27", 0.02], ["2021-08-27", 0.03], ["2021-08-27", 0.04], ["2021-08-27", 0.03], ["2021-08-28", 0.02], ["2021-08-28", 0.03], ["2021-08-28", 0.02], ["2021-08-28", 0.03], ["2021-08-28", 0.02], ["2021-08-28", 0.03], ["2021-08-28", 0.02], ["2021-08-28", 0.02], ["2021-08-28", 0.01], ["2021-08-28", 0.01], ["2021-08-28", 0.01], ["2021-08-28", 0.01], ["2021-08-29", 0.01], ["2021-08-29", 0.01], ["2021-08-29", 0.01], ["2021-08-29", 0.01], ["2021-08-29", 0.01], ["2021-08-29", 0.03], ["2021-08-29", 0.03], ["2021-08-29", 0.01], ["2021-08-30", 0.03], ["2021-08-30", 0.05], ["2021-08-30", 0.05], ["2021-08-30", 0.055], 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0.18], ["2021-11-13", 0.18], ["2021-11-13", 0.18], ["2021-11-13", 0.18], ["2021-11-13", 0.18], ["2021-11-13", 0.18], ["2021-11-13", 0.18]] | ["https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2021/nov/10/cop26-draft-text-annotated-what-it-says-and-what-it-means", "https://theconversation.com/we-finally-have-the-rulebook-for-the-paris-agreement-but-global-climate-action-is-still-inadequate-108918", "https://eciu.net/analysis/briefings/international-perspectives/what-is-cop26-who-will-attend-it-and-why-does-it-matter", "https://time.com/6110941/cop26-goals-climate/", "https://news.sky.com/story/cop26-what-is-the-paris-rulebook-and-will-cop26-at-last-address-carbon-markets-12458205", "https://www.reuters.com/business/cop/paris-rulebook-could-still-be-completed-cop26-eus-timmermans-2021-11-11/", "https://kelo.com/2021/11/11/pressure-mounts-as-u-n-climate-negotiations-enter-final-day/", "https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/cop26-finally-set-rules-on-carbon-markets-what-does-it-mean-1.1681308", "https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/climate-change/cop26-hardly-12-hours-to-go-completion-of-paris-rulebook-still-under-cloud-in-glasgow-80181", "https://www.ecosystemmarketplace.com/articles/experts-speculate-that-article-6-rules-will-pass-once-finance-package-is-agreed/", "https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/13/third-draft-of-cop26-text-published-after-negotiations-overrun", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-09/kerry-sees-a-deal-on-global-carbon-trading-rules-at-cop26-summit", "https://www.ecosystemmarketplace.com/articles/breaking-new-article-6-draft-shows-broad-compromise-on-carbon-markets/", "https://www.climatechangenews.com/2021/10/26/chess-game-negotiators-seek-elusive-carbon-market-deal-cop26/", "https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/energy-transition/100721-cop26-must-deliver-rulebook-for-paris-agreement-experts", "https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-q-and-a-how-article-6-carbon-markets-could-make-or-break-the-paris-agreement", "https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/08/business/energy-crisis-climate-fossil-fuels-renewables-cop26-cmd-intl/index.html", "https://www.reuters.com/business/cop/outline-carbon-markets-deal-emerges-un-climate-summit-2021-11-13/", "https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/578627-3-issues-to-watch-at-climate-summit", "https://www.edf.org/media/cop26-ends-strong-result-carbon-markets-and-international-call-action-most-urgent-climate", "https://grist.org/cop26/cop26-made-real-progress-it-also-isnt-enough/", "https://www.reuters.com/business/cop/early-signs-are-good-cop26-rulebook-negotiations-eu-says-2021-11-04/", "http://www.aalep.eu/cop-26-countries-not-track", "https://www.rfi.fr/en/international/20210725-uk-hosts-51-countries-for-climate-talks-ahead-of-cop26", "https://www.carbonbrief.org/cop25-key-outcomes-agreed-at-the-un-climate-talks-in-madrid"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2021-09-30 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1897 |
<p>North Macedonia has not completed a census since 2002, partly due to concern that it could disrupt the country's ethnic-conscious government (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/emigration-and-low-birth-rates-are-affecting-the-balkans" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/5dafc7e1-d233-48c4-bd6b-90a2ed45a6e7" target="_blank">Financial Times</a>, <a href="https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/North-Macedonia-census-yes-census-no-207268" target="_blank">OBC Transeuropa</a>, <a href="https://balkaninsight.com/2020/10/09/north-macedonia-makes-fresh-push-for-long-overdue-census/" target="_blank">Balkan Insight</a>). A census that is started but not completed would not count (e.g., <a href="https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/Census-fails-in-Macedonia-105372" target="_blank">OBC Transeuropa</a>). The actual release of data is immaterial.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 14 September 2021</span>: The announcement must occur before 1 October 2021 to count.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-10-01 | Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021? | 2021-01-07 | [["2021-01-08", 0.75], ["2021-01-08", 0.75], ["2021-01-08", 0.875], ["2021-01-09", 0.69], ["2021-01-09", 0.69], ["2021-01-10", 0.565], ["2021-01-10", 0.5], ["2021-01-11", 0.45], ["2021-01-11", 0.5], ["2021-01-12", 0.35], ["2021-01-12", 0.33], ["2021-01-13", 0.4], ["2021-01-13", 0.22], ["2021-01-14", 0.405], ["2021-01-14", 0.35], ["2021-01-14", 0.205], ["2021-01-14", 0.215], ["2021-01-14", 0.27], ["2021-01-16", 0.335], ["2021-01-16", 0.32], ["2021-01-16", 0.295], ["2021-01-17", 0.35], ["2021-01-17", 0.325], ["2021-01-18", 0.35], ["2021-01-19", 0.35], ["2021-01-19", 0.35], ["2021-01-20", 0.46], ["2021-01-20", 0.49], ["2021-01-20", 0.49], ["2021-01-22", 0.415], ["2021-01-23", 0.365], ["2021-01-24", 0.35], ["2021-01-24", 0.35], ["2021-01-25", 0.35], ["2021-01-26", 0.365], ["2021-01-27", 0.38], ["2021-01-27", 0.45], ["2021-01-27", 0.5], ["2021-01-28", 0.525], ["2021-01-30", 0.535], ["2021-01-31", 0.6], ["2021-01-31", 0.55], ["2021-01-31", 0.57], ["2021-02-02", 0.715], ["2021-02-02", 0.74], ["2021-02-03", 0.75], ["2021-02-04", 0.75], ["2021-02-05", 0.77], ["2021-02-06", 0.78], ["2021-02-06", 0.8], ["2021-02-07", 0.8], ["2021-02-07", 0.8], ["2021-02-08", 0.8], ["2021-02-10", 0.8], ["2021-02-10", 0.805], ["2021-02-11", 0.81], ["2021-02-13", 0.81], ["2021-02-14", 0.81], ["2021-02-14", 0.82], ["2021-02-15", 0.85], ["2021-02-15", 0.85], ["2021-02-16", 0.85], ["2021-02-16", 0.85], ["2021-02-16", 0.85], ["2021-02-20", 0.85], ["2021-02-22", 0.85], ["2021-02-24", 0.85], ["2021-02-25", 0.855], ["2021-03-01", 0.865], ["2021-03-01", 0.865], ["2021-03-02", 0.875], ["2021-03-05", 0.865], ["2021-03-05", 0.865], ["2021-03-07", 0.885], ["2021-03-08", 0.885], ["2021-03-08", 0.895], ["2021-03-10", 0.895], ["2021-03-11", 0.895], ["2021-03-15", 0.885], ["2021-03-17", 0.885], ["2021-03-17", 0.885], ["2021-03-21", 0.885], ["2021-03-23", 0.875], ["2021-03-24", 0.875], ["2021-03-26", 0.88], ["2021-03-29", 0.895], ["2021-03-29", 0.9], ["2021-03-30", 0.9], ["2021-03-31", 0.9], ["2021-03-31", 0.9], ["2021-03-31", 0.9], ["2021-04-02", 0.9], ["2021-04-03", 0.895], ["2021-04-03", 0.895], ["2021-04-03", 0.87], ["2021-04-03", 0.87], ["2021-04-03", 0.87], ["2021-04-04", 0.775], ["2021-04-04", 0.775], ["2021-04-05", 0.775], ["2021-04-07", 0.775], ["2021-04-08", 0.775], ["2021-04-08", 0.775], ["2021-04-09", 0.775], ["2021-04-09", 0.775], ["2021-04-09", 0.675], ["2021-04-10", 0.6], ["2021-04-10", 0.315], ["2021-04-10", 0.31], ["2021-04-11", 0.27], ["2021-04-11", 0.31], ["2021-04-11", 0.31], ["2021-04-14", 0.31], ["2021-04-15", 0.31], ["2021-04-15", 0.355], ["2021-04-17", 0.355], ["2021-04-18", 0.38], 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"https://balkaninsight.com/2021/09/24/north-macedonia-census-takers-rush-to-complete-head-count/", "https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=mk&tl=en&u=https://popis2021.stat.gov.mk/", "http://www.dtt-net.com/en/news/3648/39/Census-launched-in-North-Macedonia-after-19-years/", "https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210926-north-macedonia-holds-first-high-stakes-census-first-in-20-years", "https://popis2021.stat.gov.mk/%D0%90%D0%BA%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%B2%D0%BD%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B8/%D0%9F%D0%9E%D0%9F%D0%98%D0%A1%D0%9E%D0%A2-%D0%97%D0%90%D0%92%D0%A0%D0%A8%D0%A3%D0%92%D0%90/", "https://twitter.com/popis2021/status/1443634094320070663", "https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https://popis2021.stat.gov.mk/default.aspx", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1338549", "https://popis2021.stat.gov.mk/%D0%90%D0%BA%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%B2%D0%BD%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B8/%D0%9F%D0%BE%D0%BF%D0%B8%D1%81%D0%BE%D1%82-%D1%81%D0%B5-%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B6%D1%83%D0%B2%D0%B0-%D0%B7%D0%B0-%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%BE%D1%82-%D0%BE%D0%B4-5-%D1%81%D0%B5%D0%BF%D1%82%D0%B5%D0%BC%D0%B2%D1%80%D0%B8-%D0%B4%D0%BE-30-%D1%81%D0%B5%D0%BF%D1%82%D0%B5%D0%BC%D0%B2%D1%80%D0%B8-2021-%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%B0/", "https://balkaninsight.com/2021/09/03/north-macedonia-to-start-delayed-census-despite-covid-19-fears/", "https://popis2021.stat.gov.mk/Activities/THE-CENSUS-IS-COMING-TO-AN-END/", "https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2021/5/12/why-is-it-so-difficult-to-hold-a-census-in-north-macedonia", "https://popis2021.stat.gov.mk/default.aspx", "https://popis2021.stat.gov.mk/%D0%9D%D0%B0%D1%81%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B8/Press-release/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1338124", "https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/Census-fails-in-Macedonia-105372", "https://popis2021.stat.gov.mk/#", "https://www.barrons.com/news/north-macedonia-set-for-first-census-in-two-decades-01630594808?refsec=afp-news", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1324240", "https://balkaninsight.com/2021/09/20/north-macedonias-sensitive-census-on-track-for-success/", "https://www.stat.gov.mk/Dokumenti/Methodology_Census2021_1.pdf", "https://dsbb.imf.org/sdds-plus/dqaf-base/country/MKD/category/POP00"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2020-02-12 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1519 | <p>This is a notifications test. Please disregard.</p> | 2020-02-12 | Test | 2020-02-12 | [["2020-02-12", 0.51], ["2020-02-12", 0.51]] | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-01-21 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1860 |
<p>The Trump administration is exploring ways to allow mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to leave federal conservatorship, which was imposed in the midst of the 2008 financial crisis (<a href="https://www.fhfa.gov/Conservatorship/Pages/History-of-Fannie-Mae--Freddie-Conservatorships.aspx" target="_blank">FHFA</a>, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/fannie-freddie-overseer-seeks-to-end-federal-control-before-trump-leaves-11605873600" target="_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>, <a href="https://www.housingwire.com/articles/fannie-and-freddie-need-significant-capital-to-leave-conservatorship-mnuchin-says/" target="_blank">Housing Wire</a>, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-02/mnuchin-says-he-hasn-t-decided-on-11th-hour-fannie-freddie-redo" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>). Democrats are pushing back on the plan (<a href="https://financialservices.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=407052" target="_blank">House Financial Services Committee</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-housing-fanniefreddie/fannie-freddie-regulator-looks-to-end-govt-control-before-trumps-exit-wsj-idUSKBN2801MD" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). The date that Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mack would actually leave conservatorship is immaterial. A consent order would count so long as it provides for an exit to occur unless the FHFA takes further action.</p><p></p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-01-21 | Before 21 January 2021, will the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) enter into a consent order that would allow Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to exit conservatorship? | 2020-12-09 | [["2020-12-09", 0.0], ["2020-12-09", 0.035], ["2020-12-09", 0.0], ["2020-12-09", 0.0], ["2020-12-09", 0.0], ["2020-12-09", 0.005], ["2020-12-09", 0.01], ["2020-12-09", 0.015], ["2020-12-09", 0.02], ["2020-12-10", 0.02], ["2020-12-10", 0.02], ["2020-12-10", 0.015], ["2020-12-10", 0.01], ["2020-12-10", 0.01], ["2020-12-11", 0.01], ["2020-12-11", 0.01], ["2020-12-11", 0.01], ["2020-12-11", 0.01], ["2020-12-11", 0.015], ["2020-12-12", 0.02], ["2020-12-12", 0.02], ["2020-12-12", 0.015], ["2020-12-12", 0.015], ["2020-12-12", 0.01], ["2020-12-12", 0.01], ["2020-12-12", 0.01], ["2020-12-13", 0.01], ["2020-12-13", 0.04], ["2020-12-13", 0.03], ["2020-12-14", 0.01], ["2020-12-14", 0.03], ["2020-12-15", 0.01], ["2020-12-15", 0.01], ["2020-12-15", 0.01], ["2020-12-15", 0.03], ["2020-12-16", 0.04], ["2020-12-16", 0.05], ["2020-12-17", 0.05], ["2020-12-17", 0.05], ["2020-12-17", 0.05], ["2020-12-18", 0.04], ["2020-12-19", 0.03], ["2020-12-21", 0.04], ["2020-12-25", 0.04], ["2020-12-26", 0.03], ["2020-12-26", 0.03], ["2020-12-26", 0.02], ["2020-12-27", 0.01], ["2020-12-27", 0.01], ["2020-12-27", 0.01], ["2021-01-03", 0.005], ["2021-01-03", 0.0], ["2021-01-04", 0.0], ["2021-01-04", 0.0], ["2021-01-05", 0.0], ["2021-01-06", 0.0], ["2021-01-06", 0.0], ["2021-01-07", 0.0], ["2021-01-08", 0.0], ["2021-01-08", 0.0], ["2021-01-08", 0.0], ["2021-01-09", 0.0], ["2021-01-11", 0.0], ["2021-01-14", 0.0], ["2021-01-14", 0.0], ["2021-01-15", 0.0], ["2021-01-15", 0.0], ["2021-01-17", 0.0], ["2021-01-17", 0.0], ["2021-01-17", 0.0], ["2021-01-19", 0.0], ["2021-01-20", 0.0], ["2021-01-21", 0.0]] | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2020-07-30 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1684 |
<p>The National Basketball Association (NBA), which announced the suspension of the 2019-20 season on 11 March 2020 due to COVID-19, is planning to restart on 30 July 2020 (<a href="https://www.nba.com/article/2020/06/26/nba-nbpa-finalize-season-comeback-official-release" target="_blank">NBA</a>, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-nba-has-a-plan-to-restart-the-season-11591207131" target="_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p>
</p>
| 2020-07-31 | Will the 2019-20 NBA season resume on 30 July 2020? | 2020-07-03 | [["2020-07-03", 0.55], ["2020-07-03", 0.775], ["2020-07-03", 1.0], ["2020-07-03", 0.775], ["2020-07-03", 1.0], ["2020-07-03", 1.0], ["2020-07-03", 1.0], ["2020-07-03", 1.0], ["2020-07-03", 1.0], ["2020-07-03", 0.95], ["2020-07-03", 0.995], ["2020-07-04", 0.945], ["2020-07-04", 0.97], ["2020-07-04", 0.945], ["2020-07-04", 0.925], ["2020-07-04", 0.97], ["2020-07-04", 0.925], ["2020-07-04", 0.9], ["2020-07-04", 0.9], ["2020-07-04", 0.9], ["2020-07-04", 0.925], ["2020-07-04", 0.925], ["2020-07-04", 0.875], ["2020-07-04", 0.85], ["2020-07-04", 0.825], ["2020-07-04", 0.825], ["2020-07-05", 0.825], ["2020-07-05", 0.825], ["2020-07-05", 0.85], ["2020-07-05", 0.865], ["2020-07-05", 0.88], ["2020-07-05", 0.85], ["2020-07-05", 0.85], ["2020-07-05", 0.85], ["2020-07-06", 0.825], ["2020-07-06", 0.825], ["2020-07-06", 0.825], ["2020-07-06", 0.85], ["2020-07-06", 0.85], ["2020-07-06", 0.825], ["2020-07-06", 0.85], ["2020-07-06", 0.905], ["2020-07-07", 0.905], ["2020-07-07", 0.91], ["2020-07-07", 0.91], ["2020-07-07", 0.905], ["2020-07-07", 0.885], ["2020-07-07", 0.86], ["2020-07-07", 0.91], ["2020-07-07", 0.885], ["2020-07-07", 0.885], ["2020-07-07", 0.855], ["2020-07-07", 0.855], ["2020-07-07", 0.855], ["2020-07-07", 0.855], ["2020-07-07", 0.845], ["2020-07-08", 0.85], ["2020-07-08", 0.86], ["2020-07-08", 0.865], ["2020-07-08", 0.88], ["2020-07-08", 0.88], ["2020-07-08", 0.86], ["2020-07-08", 0.88], ["2020-07-08", 0.88], ["2020-07-08", 0.87], ["2020-07-08", 0.85], ["2020-07-08", 0.85], ["2020-07-08", 0.845], ["2020-07-08", 0.845], ["2020-07-08", 0.845], ["2020-07-09", 0.845], ["2020-07-09", 0.84], ["2020-07-09", 0.84], ["2020-07-09", 0.84], ["2020-07-09", 0.8], ["2020-07-09", 0.82], ["2020-07-09", 0.825], ["2020-07-09", 0.825], ["2020-07-09", 0.825], ["2020-07-09", 0.87], ["2020-07-09", 0.89], ["2020-07-09", 0.89], ["2020-07-09", 0.85], ["2020-07-10", 0.85], ["2020-07-10", 0.85], ["2020-07-10", 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["2020-07-24", 0.99], ["2020-07-24", 0.99], ["2020-07-24", 0.99], ["2020-07-24", 0.99], ["2020-07-24", 0.99], ["2020-07-24", 0.99], ["2020-07-24", 0.99], ["2020-07-24", 0.99], ["2020-07-24", 0.99], ["2020-07-24", 0.99], ["2020-07-24", 0.99], ["2020-07-24", 0.99], ["2020-07-25", 0.99], ["2020-07-25", 0.99], ["2020-07-25", 0.99], ["2020-07-25", 0.99], ["2020-07-25", 0.99], ["2020-07-25", 0.99], ["2020-07-25", 0.99], ["2020-07-25", 0.99], ["2020-07-25", 0.99], ["2020-07-25", 0.99], ["2020-07-26", 0.99], ["2020-07-26", 0.99], ["2020-07-26", 0.99], ["2020-07-26", 0.99], ["2020-07-26", 0.99], ["2020-07-26", 0.99], ["2020-07-26", 0.99], ["2020-07-26", 0.99], ["2020-07-26", 0.99], ["2020-07-26", 0.99], ["2020-07-27", 0.99], ["2020-07-27", 0.99], ["2020-07-27", 0.99], ["2020-07-27", 0.99], ["2020-07-27", 0.99], ["2020-07-27", 0.99], ["2020-07-27", 0.99], ["2020-07-27", 0.99], ["2020-07-27", 0.99], ["2020-07-27", 0.99], ["2020-07-27", 0.99], ["2020-07-27", 0.99], ["2020-07-27", 0.99], ["2020-07-27", 0.99], ["2020-07-27", 0.99], ["2020-07-27", 0.99], ["2020-07-27", 0.99], ["2020-07-27", 0.99], ["2020-07-27", 0.99], ["2020-07-27", 0.99], ["2020-07-27", 0.99], ["2020-07-27", 0.99], ["2020-07-27", 0.99], ["2020-07-27", 0.99], ["2020-07-27", 0.99], ["2020-07-27", 0.99], ["2020-07-27", 0.99], ["2020-07-27", 0.99], ["2020-07-27", 0.99], ["2020-07-27", 0.99], ["2020-07-27", 0.99], ["2020-07-27", 0.99], ["2020-07-27", 0.99], ["2020-07-27", 0.99], ["2020-07-27", 0.99], ["2020-07-28", 0.99], ["2020-07-28", 0.99], ["2020-07-28", 0.99], ["2020-07-28", 0.99], ["2020-07-28", 0.99], ["2020-07-28", 0.99], ["2020-07-28", 0.99], ["2020-07-28", 0.99], ["2020-07-28", 0.99], ["2020-07-28", 0.99], ["2020-07-28", 0.99], ["2020-07-28", 0.99], ["2020-07-28", 0.99], ["2020-07-28", 0.99], ["2020-07-28", 0.99], ["2020-07-28", 0.99], ["2020-07-29", 0.99], ["2020-07-29", 0.99], ["2020-07-29", 0.99], ["2020-07-29", 0.99], ["2020-07-29", 0.99], ["2020-07-29", 0.99], ["2020-07-29", 0.99], ["2020-07-29", 0.99], ["2020-07-29", 0.99], ["2020-07-29", 0.99], ["2020-07-29", 0.99], ["2020-07-29", 0.99], ["2020-07-30", 0.99], ["2020-07-30", 0.99], ["2020-07-30", 0.99], ["2020-07-30", 0.99], ["2020-07-30", 0.99]] | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2021-07-15 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1792 |
<p>Erdoğan is embroiled in several controversies in the region, including active engagement in the Libyan civil war, oil & gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, and Turkey's acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems despite warnings from the U.S. and NATO (<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/turkey-illegitimate-haftar-withdraw-key-libya-areas-200722160827376.html" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53906360" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.defensenews.com/breaking-news/2020/08/12/congress-has-secretly-blocked-us-arms-sales-to-turkey-for-nearly-two-years/" target="_blank">Defense News</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-07-15 | Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to be president of Turkey before 15 July 2021? | 2020-09-25 | [["2020-09-25", 0.205], ["2020-09-25", 0.03], ["2020-09-25", 0.03], ["2020-09-25", 0.05], ["2020-09-25", 0.05], ["2020-09-25", 0.09], ["2020-09-25", 0.055], ["2020-09-25", 0.055], ["2020-09-25", 0.025], ["2020-09-25", 0.015], ["2020-09-25", 0.01], ["2020-09-25", 0.015], ["2020-09-25", 0.02], ["2020-09-26", 0.02], ["2020-09-26", 0.02], ["2020-09-26", 0.02], ["2020-09-26", 0.02], ["2020-09-26", 0.015], ["2020-09-26", 0.015], ["2020-09-26", 0.01], ["2020-09-26", 0.01], ["2020-09-27", 0.01], ["2020-09-27", 0.01], ["2020-09-27", 0.01], ["2020-09-27", 0.01], ["2020-09-27", 0.01], ["2020-09-27", 0.01], ["2020-09-27", 0.02], ["2020-09-28", 0.01], ["2020-09-28", 0.01], ["2020-09-28", 0.01], ["2020-09-28", 0.02], ["2020-09-29", 0.02], ["2020-09-29", 0.02], ["2020-09-29", 0.02], ["2020-09-29", 0.02], ["2020-09-29", 0.02], ["2020-09-30", 0.02], ["2020-09-30", 0.05], ["2020-10-01", 0.03], ["2020-10-01", 0.025], ["2020-10-01", 0.03], ["2020-10-01", 0.03], ["2020-10-01", 0.03], ["2020-10-02", 0.03], ["2020-10-02", 0.03], ["2020-10-02", 0.04], ["2020-10-02", 0.04], ["2020-10-02", 0.04], ["2020-10-03", 0.03], ["2020-10-03", 0.05], ["2020-10-03", 0.05], ["2020-10-03", 0.05], ["2020-10-04", 0.05], ["2020-10-04", 0.05], ["2020-10-05", 0.05], ["2020-10-06", 0.05], ["2020-10-07", 0.05], ["2020-10-07", 0.045], ["2020-10-07", 0.04], ["2020-10-08", 0.045], ["2020-10-08", 0.04], ["2020-10-09", 0.04], ["2020-10-11", 0.05], ["2020-10-12", 0.05], ["2020-10-12", 0.05], ["2020-10-13", 0.045], ["2020-10-13", 0.045], ["2020-10-14", 0.045], ["2020-10-14", 0.045], ["2020-10-15", 0.045], ["2020-10-16", 0.035], ["2020-10-17", 0.035], ["2020-10-18", 0.035], ["2020-10-18", 0.04], ["2020-10-20", 0.03], ["2020-10-21", 0.03], ["2020-10-22", 0.03], ["2020-10-22", 0.03], ["2020-10-24", 0.03], ["2020-10-26", 0.03], ["2020-10-26", 0.03], ["2020-10-27", 0.03], ["2020-10-27", 0.03], ["2020-10-27", 0.025], ["2020-10-28", 0.02], ["2020-10-29", 0.02], ["2020-10-30", 0.03], ["2020-10-31", 0.02], ["2020-11-02", 0.025], ["2020-11-02", 0.02], ["2020-11-02", 0.02], ["2020-11-03", 0.025], ["2020-11-03", 0.02], ["2020-11-05", 0.02], ["2020-11-05", 0.02], ["2020-11-05", 0.02], ["2020-11-05", 0.02], ["2020-11-07", 0.02], ["2020-11-07", 0.02], ["2020-11-09", 0.025], ["2020-11-11", 0.025], ["2020-11-11", 0.03], ["2020-11-11", 0.03], ["2020-11-12", 0.03], ["2020-11-12", 0.03], ["2020-11-14", 0.025], ["2020-11-15", 0.02], ["2020-11-15", 0.02], ["2020-11-16", 0.02], ["2020-11-16", 0.02], ["2020-11-17", 0.02], ["2020-11-17", 0.02], ["2020-11-17", 0.02], ["2020-11-21", 0.02], ["2020-11-21", 0.02], ["2020-11-25", 0.02], ["2020-11-26", 0.02], ["2020-11-27", 0.02], ["2020-11-29", 0.02], ["2020-12-01", 0.02], ["2020-12-02", 0.02], ["2020-12-02", 0.02], ["2020-12-04", 0.02], ["2020-12-05", 0.02], ["2020-12-06", 0.02], ["2020-12-06", 0.02], ["2020-12-08", 0.02], ["2020-12-09", 0.02], ["2020-12-09", 0.02], ["2020-12-10", 0.02], ["2020-12-12", 0.02], ["2020-12-12", 0.02], ["2020-12-13", 0.02], ["2020-12-13", 0.02], ["2020-12-15", 0.02], ["2020-12-17", 0.02], ["2020-12-19", 0.02], ["2020-12-19", 0.02], ["2020-12-22", 0.02], ["2020-12-23", 0.02], ["2020-12-25", 0.02], ["2020-12-25", 0.02], ["2020-12-26", 0.02], ["2020-12-27", 0.02], ["2020-12-28", 0.02], ["2020-12-29", 0.02], ["2020-12-30", 0.02], ["2020-12-31", 0.02], ["2021-01-02", 0.02], ["2021-01-03", 0.02], ["2021-01-03", 0.02], ["2021-01-05", 0.02], ["2021-01-05", 0.02], ["2021-01-06", 0.02], ["2021-01-06", 0.02], ["2021-01-08", 0.02], ["2021-01-09", 0.02], ["2021-01-11", 0.02], ["2021-01-12", 0.02], ["2021-01-14", 0.02], ["2021-01-15", 0.02], ["2021-01-15", 0.02], ["2021-01-16", 0.02], ["2021-01-18", 0.02], ["2021-01-19", 0.02], ["2021-01-22", 0.02], ["2021-01-22", 0.02], ["2021-01-25", 0.02], ["2021-01-27", 0.015], ["2021-01-29", 0.02], ["2021-01-30", 0.02], ["2021-01-31", 0.02], ["2021-02-02", 0.02], ["2021-02-02", 0.02], ["2021-02-04", 0.02], ["2021-02-05", 0.02], ["2021-02-05", 0.02], ["2021-02-06", 0.02], ["2021-02-07", 0.02], ["2021-02-08", 0.02], ["2021-02-09", 0.02], ["2021-02-10", 0.02], ["2021-02-11", 0.02], ["2021-02-14", 0.015], ["2021-02-16", 0.015], ["2021-02-19", 0.015], ["2021-02-21", 0.015], ["2021-02-23", 0.015], ["2021-02-24", 0.015], ["2021-02-25", 0.01], ["2021-02-27", 0.01], ["2021-02-28", 0.01], ["2021-03-01", 0.01], ["2021-03-03", 0.01], ["2021-03-04", 0.01], ["2021-03-05", 0.01], ["2021-03-06", 0.01], ["2021-03-06", 0.01], ["2021-03-07", 0.01], ["2021-03-08", 0.01], ["2021-03-09", 0.01], ["2021-03-09", 0.01], ["2021-03-10", 0.01], ["2021-03-14", 0.01], ["2021-03-15", 0.01], ["2021-03-18", 0.01], ["2021-03-19", 0.01], ["2021-03-22", 0.01], ["2021-03-23", 0.01], ["2021-03-25", 0.01], ["2021-03-26", 0.01], ["2021-03-30", 0.01], ["2021-03-31", 0.01], ["2021-04-01", 0.01], ["2021-04-01", 0.01], ["2021-04-04", 0.01], ["2021-04-05", 0.01], ["2021-04-06", 0.01], ["2021-04-09", 0.01], ["2021-04-10", 0.01], ["2021-04-13", 0.01], ["2021-04-18", 0.01], ["2021-04-19", 0.01], ["2021-04-21", 0.01], ["2021-04-23", 0.01], ["2021-04-28", 0.01], ["2021-04-29", 0.01], ["2021-05-04", 0.0], ["2021-05-05", 0.0], ["2021-05-06", 0.0], ["2021-05-07", 0.0], ["2021-05-08", 0.0], ["2021-05-09", 0.0], ["2021-05-09", 0.0], ["2021-05-10", 0.0], ["2021-05-12", 0.0], ["2021-05-12", 0.0], ["2021-05-14", 0.0], ["2021-05-15", 0.0], ["2021-05-18", 0.0], ["2021-05-20", 0.0], ["2021-05-21", 0.0], ["2021-05-22", 0.0], ["2021-05-26", 0.0], ["2021-05-27", 0.0], ["2021-05-30", 0.0], ["2021-06-05", 0.0], ["2021-06-08", 0.0], ["2021-06-08", 0.0], ["2021-06-10", 0.0], ["2021-06-10", 0.0], ["2021-06-12", 0.0], ["2021-06-16", 0.0], ["2021-06-17", 0.0], ["2021-06-19", 0.0], ["2021-06-20", 0.0], ["2021-06-20", 0.0], ["2021-06-21", 0.0], ["2021-06-22", 0.0], ["2021-06-25", 0.0], ["2021-06-27", 0.0], ["2021-06-28", 0.0], ["2021-07-01", 0.0], ["2021-07-01", 0.0], ["2021-07-02", 0.0], ["2021-07-03", 0.0], ["2021-07-04", 0.0], ["2021-07-05", 0.0], ["2021-07-05", 0.0], ["2021-07-06", 0.0], ["2021-07-08", 0.0], ["2021-07-08", 0.0], ["2021-07-08", 0.0], ["2021-07-09", 0.0], ["2021-07-09", 0.0], ["2021-07-13", 0.0], ["2021-07-13", 0.0], ["2021-07-14", 0.0], ["2021-07-14", 0.0], ["2021-07-15", 0.0]] | ["https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/radicalization-of-turkeys-schoolbooks-shows-erdoans-grip-on-power-increasing-661068", "https://bit.ly/36er8E1", "https://www.npr.org/2020/05/25/861909600/turkish-president-may-call-elections-2-years-prior-the-end-of-his-term", "https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20210202-erdogan-calls-for-new-constitution-in-turkey/", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/5/turkey-erdogan-accuses-retired-admirals-of-hinting-at-coup", "https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2021/02/turkey-erdogan-new-constitution-cementing-autocratic-rul.html", "https://www.ahmetdonmez.net/i-was-in-turkey-on-july-15-the-coup-was-not-convincing-and-i-decided-to-shoot-this-documentary-that-night/", "https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2021/03/20/world/europe/turkey-erdogan-women-violence.amp.html", "https://www.ft.com/content/4fd66e78-3ba8-4bd9-8a31-bfbb9605284a"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2020-06-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1423 |
<p>Nicolas Maduro remains in power despite increasing international pressure and domestic instability (<a href="https://worldin.economist.com/article/17344/edition2020way-change-venezuela" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.americasquarterly.org/content/where-will-maduro-end-ranking" target="_blank">Americas Quarterly</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/08/14/heres-why-venezuelan-president-nicolas-maduro-is-still-power/" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/venezuelas-nicolas-maduro-once-thought-ripe-for-ouster-looks-firmly-in-place-11575801000" target="_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>).</p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>
| 2020-06-01 | Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 June 2020? | 2019-12-12 | [["2019-12-13", 0.1], ["2019-12-14", 0.095], ["2019-12-14", 0.095], ["2019-12-14", 0.075], ["2019-12-15", 0.03], ["2019-12-15", 0.045], ["2019-12-16", 0.03], ["2019-12-16", 0.045], ["2019-12-17", 0.05], ["2019-12-17", 0.04], ["2019-12-18", 0.045], ["2019-12-19", 0.035], ["2019-12-21", 0.025], ["2019-12-22", 0.045], ["2019-12-23", 0.03], ["2019-12-25", 0.05], ["2019-12-26", 0.05], ["2019-12-27", 0.04], ["2019-12-28", 0.05], ["2019-12-28", 0.03], ["2019-12-29", 0.05], ["2019-12-30", 0.08], ["2019-12-30", 0.095], ["2019-12-31", 0.1], ["2020-01-01", 0.1], ["2020-01-02", 0.095], ["2020-01-02", 0.09], ["2020-01-03", 0.1], ["2020-01-04", 0.1], ["2020-01-04", 0.08], ["2020-01-05", 0.08], ["2020-01-07", 0.08], ["2020-01-07", 0.06], ["2020-01-08", 0.055], ["2020-01-09", 0.05], ["2020-01-10", 0.05], ["2020-01-10", 0.04], ["2020-01-11", 0.04], ["2020-01-12", 0.04], ["2020-01-13", 0.03], ["2020-01-13", 0.04], ["2020-01-14", 0.04], ["2020-01-15", 0.04], ["2020-01-17", 0.04], ["2020-01-18", 0.04], ["2020-01-19", 0.04], ["2020-01-19", 0.04], ["2020-01-19", 0.05], ["2020-01-19", 0.05], ["2020-01-19", 0.05], ["2020-01-19", 0.05], ["2020-01-19", 0.05], ["2020-01-19", 0.095], ["2020-01-19", 0.095], ["2020-01-19", 0.1], ["2020-01-19", 0.1], ["2020-01-19", 0.105], ["2020-01-19", 0.145], ["2020-01-19", 0.15], ["2020-01-19", 0.2], ["2020-01-19", 0.2], ["2020-01-19", 0.2], ["2020-01-19", 0.2], ["2020-01-19", 0.2], ["2020-01-19", 0.2], ["2020-01-19", 0.21], ["2020-01-19", 0.23], ["2020-01-19", 0.25], ["2020-01-19", 0.25], ["2020-01-19", 0.25], ["2020-01-19", 0.25], ["2020-01-19", 0.25], ["2020-01-19", 0.25], ["2020-01-19", 0.25], ["2020-01-19", 0.25], ["2020-01-19", 0.25], ["2020-01-19", 0.25], ["2020-01-19", 0.21], ["2020-01-19", 0.21], ["2020-01-19", 0.21], ["2020-01-19", 0.21], ["2020-01-19", 0.25], ["2020-01-19", 0.25], ["2020-01-19", 0.25], ["2020-01-19", 0.25], ["2020-01-19", 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True | 2023-08-10 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2696 |
<p>Pop star Taylor Swift is scheduled to begin her "The Eras Tour" on 17 March 2023 in Glendale, Arizona, and end on 9 August 2023 in Los Angeles, California (<a href="https://www.taylorswift.com/events/" target="_blank">Taylor Swift - Events</a>). For the purposes of this question, a postponement of any show scheduled as of the launch of this question to a date after 21 August 2023 would be considered a cancellation (<a href="https://deadline.com/2022/11/taylor-swift-additional-performances-2023-tour-1235163387/" target="_blank">Deadline</a>). A venue change alone would count as a cancellation if the new venue cannot host all ticket holders for that show.</p><p></p><p><i>This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/ubs/" target="_blank">here</a> for more details.</i></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-08-10 | Will at least one US show in Taylor Swift's 2023 "The Eras Tour" be canceled? | 2023-01-05 | [["2023-01-06", 0.2], ["2023-01-06", 0.485], ["2023-01-06", 0.6233], ["2023-01-06", 0.68], ["2023-01-06", 0.632], ["2023-01-06", 0.5283], ["2023-01-06", 0.4814], ["2023-01-06", 0.5463], ["2023-01-06", 0.5411], ["2023-01-06", 0.587], ["2023-01-06", 0.5473], ["2023-01-07", 0.5427], ["2023-01-07", 0.5117], ["2023-01-07", 0.5192], ["2023-01-07", 0.4985], ["2023-01-07", 0.5343], ["2023-01-07", 0.5113], ["2023-01-07", 0.4988], ["2023-01-07", 0.4841], ["2023-01-07", 0.4606], ["2023-01-07", 0.4411], ["2023-01-07", 0.44], ["2023-01-07", 0.3905], ["2023-01-07", 0.376], ["2023-01-07", 0.3676], ["2023-01-08", 0.3827], ["2023-01-08", 0.3661], ["2023-01-08", 0.3779], ["2023-01-08", 0.3708], ["2023-01-08", 0.3608], ["2023-01-08", 0.3474], ["2023-01-08", 0.36], ["2023-01-09", 0.3483], ["2023-01-09", 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"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-66136501", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D%27eux_Tour", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Celine_Dion_in_Concert#History", "https://www.theguardian.com/music/2023/mar/16/roger-waters-threatens-legal-action-over-german-concert-cancellations", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Celine_Dion_Live_2017#Background", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Celine_Dion_concerts", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Let%27s_Talk_About_Love_World_Tour#Shows", "https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/fans-taylor-swift-show-seattle-190841586.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall", "https://www.thebeaverton.com/2023/06/pierre-poilievre-vows-to-hold-trudeau-accountable-for-taylor-swift-leaving-canada-out-of-tour-dates/", "https://www.aol.com/taylor-swifts-seattle-concert-caused-140535243.html", "https://taylorswift.fandom.com/wiki/Tours", "https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-11887421/NASA-warns-mass-extinction-causing-asteroid-likely-hit-planet-previously-thought.html", "https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-08-03/column-california-politicians-ask-taylor-swift-to-cancel-concerts-she-cant-shake-this-off", "https://taylorswift.fandom.com/wiki/List_of_Taylor_Swift%27s_ex-boyfriends", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Courage_World_Tour#Cancelled_shows", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taylor_Swift#Politics_and_activism", "https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/Inglewood+CA?canonicalCityId=2e1781fdf05f01ad14e85a4aa7c334f9b8d1deddba4ad3826f67239a61721671#google_vignette", "https://www.cosmopolitan.com/entertainment/celebs/a29684699/taylor-swift-dating-boyfriend-history/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unison_Tour"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-12-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2250 |
<p>Tensions between the US and Iran remain high (<a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/tensions-rising-us-iran-new-years-seen-potential-flashpoint-rcna9347" target="_blank">NBC News</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/17/iran-nuclear-talks-deadlock-risks-dangerous-vacuum" target="_blank">Guardian</a>). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? 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To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2022-12-01 | Before 1 December 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea? | 2022-01-20 | [["2022-01-21", 0.0], ["2022-01-21", 0.005], ["2022-01-21", 0.006666666666666667], ["2022-01-21", 0.03], ["2022-01-21", 0.026], ["2022-01-21", 0.035], ["2022-01-21", 0.03], ["2022-01-21", 0.0275], ["2022-01-21", 0.024444444444444446], ["2022-01-21", 0.027], ["2022-01-21", 0.062], ["2022-01-21", 0.064], ["2022-01-22", 0.078], ["2022-01-22", 0.068], ["2022-01-22", 0.083], ["2022-01-22", 0.087], ["2022-01-22", 0.087], ["2022-01-22", 0.086], ["2022-01-22", 0.086], ["2022-01-22", 0.087], ["2022-01-22", 0.082], ["2022-01-22", 0.047], ["2022-01-22", 0.057], ["2022-01-22", 0.055], ["2022-01-22", 0.046], ["2022-01-22", 0.056], ["2022-01-22", 0.041], ["2022-01-22", 0.038181818181818185], ["2022-01-22", 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"https://apnews.com/article/europe-middle-east-iran-iran-nuclear-tehran-d5c3828d6224536345f1e3c3fe3a1fa5", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/18/world/middleeast/iran-nuclear-fakhrizadeh-assassination-israel.html", "https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2022/01/10/iran-seeks-to-grow-naval-power-as-it-prioritizes-asymmetric-warfare/", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/21/what-next-for-iran-and-russia-ties-after-raisi-putin-meeting", "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/us-saudi-arabia-high-alert-intel-impending-iranian-attack-report", "https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/us-navy-seizes-arms-iran-bound-yemen-81909531", "https://news.yahoo.com/biden-announce-ban-russian-oil-140156901.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall", "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/multiple-rockets-fall-erbil-northern-iraq-state-media-2022-03-12/", "https://www.ft.com/content/1d93fef9-06f4-459f-9266-5d3b9272a495", "https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/11/irans-irgc-praises-forces-gulf-oman-incident", "https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/09/lawmakers-pessimistic-about-new-iran-nuke-deal-00007384", "https://m.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-701103/amp", "https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-warning-update-iranian-proxies-may-attack-us-response-iraqi-political-crisis", "https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/01/03/the-looming-threat-of-a-nuclear-crisis-with-iran", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-50979463", "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/attacks-iran-backed-militias-us-target-are-us-hasnt-responded-force-20-rcna32892", "https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-october-6", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/10/us-charges-iranian-of-plot-to-assassinate-john-bolton.html", "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/eus-borrell-says-nuclear-agreement-with-iran-very-close-2022-03-26/", "https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/khamenei-adviser-says-tehran-capable-of-building-nuclear-bomb-al-jazeera/ar-AAZFzps", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%932021_Persian_Gulf_crisis"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1816 |
<p>Boom Technology recently unveiled the XB-1, a one-third scale prototype of its future Overture supersonic airliner, and plans to test fly it for the first time in 2021 (<a href="https://boom-press-assets.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/Boom-Supersonic-XB1-Rollout-Press-Release.pdf" target="_blank">Boom Supersonic</a>, <a href="https://boomsupersonic.com" target="_blank">BoomSupersonic.com</a>, <a href="https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers/boom-rolls-out-xb-1-supersonic-demonstrator-lays-out-overture-timeline/140513.article" target="_blank">Flight Global</a>). For the purposes of this question, a test flight would be deemed successful if the aircraft takes off and lands.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq" target="_blank"> FAQs</a>, <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/terms" target="_blank">Terms of Service</a>, <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/privacy" target="_blank">Privacy Policy</a>, or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>. We also have <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/training" target="_blank">free training materials</a> and information about our <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/services/online-training/" target="_blank">online training</a> and <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/services/upcoming-workshops/" target="_blank">workshops</a>.
</span></p><p style="line-height:0.1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Read <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">How to Become a Superforecaster®</a> and other posts on our <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights" target="_blank">Insights blog</a>. To learn more about Good Judgment Inc and Superforecasting, visit <a href="goodjudgment.com" target="_blank">goodjudgment.com</a>.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-01-03 | Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022? | 2020-10-16 | [["2020-10-16", 0.76], ["2020-10-16", 0.86], ["2020-10-17", 0.9], ["2020-10-17", 0.925], ["2020-10-17", 0.925], ["2020-10-18", 0.95], ["2020-10-18", 0.95], ["2020-10-19", 0.925], ["2020-10-19", 0.9], ["2020-10-19", 0.925], ["2020-10-19", 0.925], 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["2021-11-27", 0.04], ["2021-11-30", 0.04], ["2021-12-02", 0.04], ["2021-12-03", 0.04], ["2021-12-04", 0.04], ["2021-12-05", 0.04], ["2021-12-06", 0.03], ["2021-12-06", 0.025], ["2021-12-07", 0.02], ["2021-12-07", 0.015], ["2021-12-07", 0.02], ["2021-12-08", 0.02], ["2021-12-08", 0.02], ["2021-12-09", 0.02], ["2021-12-10", 0.02], ["2021-12-10", 0.01], ["2021-12-11", 0.01], ["2021-12-12", 0.01], ["2021-12-13", 0.01], ["2021-12-16", 0.005], ["2021-12-17", 0.005], ["2021-12-17", 0.0], ["2021-12-18", 0.0], ["2021-12-18", 0.0], ["2021-12-19", 0.0], ["2021-12-21", 0.0], ["2021-12-22", 0.0], ["2021-12-25", 0.0], ["2021-12-25", 0.0], ["2021-12-26", 0.0], ["2021-12-28", 0.0], ["2021-12-29", 0.0], ["2021-12-30", 0.0], ["2021-12-30", 0.0], ["2022-01-01", 0.0], ["2022-01-01", 0.0]] | ["https://interestingengineering.com/innovation/first-ever-independently-developed-supersonic-jet-on-its-way", "https://archive.is/4NlCX#selection-599.221-599.328", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boom_XB-1", "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/boom-supersonic-advances-flight-preparations-for-xb-1-301909250.html", "https://boomsupersonic.com/news/post/boom-supersonic-adds-experienced-finance-leader-to-board-of-directors", "https://boomsupersonic.com/news/post/boom-supersonic-adds-hypersonic-expert-mark-lewis-to-advisory-council", "https://twitter.com/cbsmornings/status/1451899857069817859", "https://www.voanews.com/a/supersonic-commercial-air-travel-to-return-by-end-of-decade/6257871.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1323074", "https://www.wired.com/story/boom-supersonic-planes/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1373185", "https://www.travelpulse.com/news/airlines/is-the-future-of-air-travel-supersonic.html", "https://uk.news.yahoo.com/startup-aims-revive-supersonic-flights-213345671.html?guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAJ7FMze3IUaiWM5-u7JmfYaJFOB09MXp41NBrLagQAEKCK68Wnn3fDbprpqI3utzIu48O64JR4bLeccDktmRyT23E1r5rgYg-IodDgO4Z1M73ZS0mjWFNjQO4goLY-F1Z_9RE50dJ5lrRpOoww-KLFStITJPHceNivDURDvyYAWm", "https://boomsupersonic.com/flyby/", "https://twitter.com/boomaero", "https://time.com/collection/best-inventions-2021/6112684/xb-1-boom-supersonic/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1274832", "https://uk.news.yahoo.com/startup-aims-revive-supersonic-flights-213345671.html", "https://www.reuters.com/video/watch/startup-aims-to-revive-supersonic-flight-idOVEQOBROF", "https://twitter.com/bscholl/status/1462206001386377224", "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/n990xb", "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/boom-supersonic-and-rolls-royce-agree-on-new-collaboration-for-supersonic-overture-engine-program-design-301103138.html", "https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/05/hermeus-announces-plan-to-build-the-fastest-aircraft-in-the-world/", "https://www.cbsnews.com/video/next-week-on-60-minutes-supersonic-passenger-planes/", "https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/aircraft-propulsion/boom-tests-vision-system-xb-1-supersonic-demonstrator"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2024-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2597 |
<p>Over two years after a deadly clash in the Himalayas left dozens dead, tensions between China and India remain (<a href="https://thediplomat.com/2022/10/the-sino-indian-border-the-front-line-of-the-quad/" target="_blank">Diplomat</a>, <a href="https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/xi-jinping-promotes-three-india-border-command-generals-to-top-pla-posts/article66048985.ece" target="_blank">The Hindu</a>, <a href="https://www.outlookindia.com/national/defense-minister-claims-india-will-not-cede-an-inch-of-land-to-anyone-news-204736" target="_blank">Outlook India</a>, <a href="https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/international/2227043-normalization-of-india-china-ties-in-worlds-interest-jaishankar-after-china-envoys-farewell-call" target="_blank">Devdiscourse</a>). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2024-01-01 | Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 January 2024? | 2022-10-26 | [["2022-10-26", 0.105], ["2022-10-26", 0.08], ["2022-10-26", 0.27], ["2022-10-26", 0.2386], ["2022-10-27", 0.2163], ["2022-10-27", 0.19], ["2022-10-28", 0.2433], ["2022-10-28", 0.2664], ["2022-10-28", 0.2919], ["2022-10-28", 0.265], ["2022-10-28", 0.2475], ["2022-10-29", 0.2452], ["2022-10-29", 0.2065], ["2022-10-30", 0.2094], ["2022-10-30", 0.2133], ["2022-10-31", 0.2039], ["2022-10-31", 0.0967], ["2022-10-31", 0.0981], ["2022-11-02", 0.1069], ["2022-11-03", 0.1021], ["2022-11-03", 0.12], ["2022-11-04", 0.156], ["2022-11-04", 0.1619], ["2022-11-04", 0.1688], ["2022-11-05", 0.1571], ["2022-11-06", 0.1618], ["2022-11-08", 0.1528], ["2022-11-09", 0.1511], ["2022-11-09", 0.1511], ["2022-11-09", 0.1542], ["2022-11-11", 0.154], ["2022-11-13", 0.1425], ["2022-11-14", 0.1215], ["2022-11-15", 0.1095], ["2022-11-18", 0.1233], ["2022-11-20", 0.121], ["2022-11-21", 0.1205], ["2022-11-23", 0.1155], ["2022-11-24", 0.1173], ["2022-11-28", 0.1086], ["2022-12-02", 0.1086], ["2022-12-06", 0.0977], ["2022-12-06", 0.0932], ["2022-12-09", 0.0955], ["2022-12-09", 0.0986], ["2022-12-12", 0.1195], ["2022-12-12", 0.1218], ["2022-12-12", 0.1232], ["2022-12-13", 0.1345], ["2022-12-13", 0.1522], ["2022-12-13", 0.2113], ["2022-12-13", 0.2222], ["2022-12-14", 0.2352], ["2022-12-14", 0.2435], ["2022-12-16", 0.2629], ["2022-12-16", 0.2733], ["2022-12-17", 0.2983], ["2022-12-19", 0.3096], ["2022-12-21", 0.3154], ["2022-12-21", 0.3175], ["2022-12-23", 0.3313], ["2022-12-24", 0.3308], ["2022-12-26", 0.3176], ["2022-12-27", 0.3132], ["2022-12-28", 0.31], ["2022-12-31", 0.312], ["2023-01-01", 0.3088], ["2023-01-02", 0.3242], ["2023-01-03", 0.3392], ["2023-01-05", 0.3565], ["2023-01-07", 0.3562], ["2023-01-08", 0.3485], ["2023-01-09", 0.3473], ["2023-01-12", 0.3341], ["2023-01-13", 0.3367], ["2023-01-15", 0.317], ["2023-01-19", 0.3137], ["2023-01-21", 0.3144], ["2023-01-25", 0.3137], ["2023-01-29", 0.3043], ["2023-01-29", 0.2704], ["2023-02-01", 0.2461], ["2023-02-04", 0.2443], ["2023-02-05", 0.2396], ["2023-02-07", 0.2364], ["2023-02-08", 0.2289], ["2023-02-14", 0.22], ["2023-02-16", 0.2182], ["2023-02-21", 0.2179], ["2023-02-22", 0.1957], ["2023-02-26", 0.1883], ["2023-03-01", 0.171], ["2023-03-04", 0.1697], ["2023-03-06", 0.1628], ["2023-03-07", 0.1628], ["2023-03-11", 0.161], ["2023-03-14", 0.1572], ["2023-03-15", 0.1555], ["2023-03-16", 0.1431], ["2023-03-19", 0.141], ["2023-03-21", 0.1403], ["2023-03-22", 0.1434], ["2023-03-23", 0.1417], ["2023-03-25", 0.1343], ["2023-03-28", 0.1457], ["2023-03-30", 0.144], ["2023-04-03", 0.144], ["2023-04-05", 0.144], ["2023-04-08", 0.1333], ["2023-04-10", 0.15], ["2023-04-13", 0.1473], ["2023-04-14", 0.1437], ["2023-04-17", 0.1283], ["2023-04-20", 0.1283], ["2023-04-20", 0.1273], ["2023-04-29", 0.1277], ["2023-05-01", 0.118], ["2023-05-03", 0.1173], ["2023-05-05", 0.1173], ["2023-05-10", 0.115], ["2023-05-12", 0.1167], ["2023-05-13", 0.1271], ["2023-05-14", 0.1255], ["2023-05-14", 0.1268], ["2023-05-19", 0.1268], ["2023-05-21", 0.1255], ["2023-05-24", 0.1255], ["2023-05-30", 0.1109], ["2023-05-31", 0.1125], ["2023-06-02", 0.1156], ["2023-06-06", 0.1175], ["2023-06-08", 0.1175], ["2023-06-09", 0.1155], ["2023-06-12", 0.1145], ["2023-06-17", 0.1158], ["2023-06-19", 0.1197], ["2023-06-21", 0.1365], ["2023-06-22", 0.1509], ["2023-06-23", 0.1509], ["2023-06-27", 0.1562], ["2023-06-29", 0.154], ["2023-07-05", 0.1589], ["2023-07-06", 0.1531], ["2023-07-09", 0.1494], ["2023-07-11", 0.1461], ["2023-07-17", 0.1458], ["2023-07-17", 0.1439], ["2023-07-19", 0.1439], ["2023-07-23", 0.1431], ["2023-07-24", 0.1419], ["2023-07-25", 0.1414], ["2023-07-25", 0.1489], ["2023-07-26", 0.1426], ["2023-07-27", 0.1345], ["2023-07-31", 0.1333], ["2023-08-01", 0.132], ["2023-08-02", 0.1305], ["2023-08-03", 0.1288], ["2023-08-04", 0.13], ["2023-08-05", 0.1323], ["2023-08-08", 0.1333], ["2023-08-13", 0.1325], ["2023-08-14", 0.1315], ["2023-08-17", 0.1202], ["2023-08-17", 0.1202], ["2023-08-18", 0.1276], ["2023-08-20", 0.1263], ["2023-08-22", 0.1259], ["2023-08-23", 0.1293], ["2023-08-24", 0.129], ["2023-08-25", 0.1288], ["2023-08-29", 0.13], ["2023-09-02", 0.1324], ["2023-09-02", 0.1314], ["2023-09-02", 0.13], ["2023-09-03", 0.1363], ["2023-09-06", 0.1509], ["2023-09-06", 0.1405], ["2023-09-07", 0.142], ["2023-09-11", 0.1409], ["2023-09-14", 0.1467], ["2023-09-15", 0.1456], ["2023-09-16", 0.1658], ["2023-09-20", 0.1626], ["2023-09-22", 0.1615], ["2023-09-27", 0.1474], ["2023-09-30", 0.1478], ["2023-10-01", 0.1476], ["2023-10-03", 0.138], ["2023-10-05", 0.1339], ["2023-10-08", 0.1313], ["2023-10-09", 0.1338], ["2023-10-10", 0.129], ["2023-10-10", 0.1233], ["2023-10-12", 0.1208], ["2023-10-14", 0.1206], ["2023-10-15", 0.1231], ["2023-10-16", 0.1364], ["2023-10-20", 0.1244], ["2023-10-21", 0.124], ["2023-10-22", 0.1226], ["2023-10-23", 0.1206], ["2023-10-25", 0.1204], ["2023-10-26", 0.1198], ["2023-10-28", 0.1173], ["2023-11-02", 0.1169], ["2023-11-03", 0.1204], ["2023-11-04", 0.1192], ["2023-11-05", 0.1194], ["2023-11-07", 0.1175], ["2023-11-10", 0.1153], ["2023-11-11", 0.1153], ["2023-11-11", 0.1145], ["2023-11-13", 0.1102], ["2023-11-14", 0.1096], ["2023-11-16", 0.1077], ["2023-11-18", 0.1075], ["2023-11-20", 0.1148], ["2023-11-21", 0.1144], ["2023-11-22", 0.107], ["2023-11-24", 0.1143], ["2023-11-25", 0.1185], ["2023-11-25", 0.1142], ["2023-11-26", 0.1191], ["2023-11-27", 0.1363], ["2023-11-27", 0.15], ["2023-11-29", 0.1481], ["2023-12-03", 0.1477], ["2023-12-04", 0.1444], ["2023-12-05", 0.1388], ["2023-12-05", 0.1425], ["2023-12-07", 0.1425], ["2023-12-08", 0.1416], ["2023-12-08", 0.1416], ["2023-12-11", 0.14], ["2023-12-12", 0.1395], ["2023-12-13", 0.1393], ["2023-12-14", 0.135], ["2023-12-16", 0.1286], ["2023-12-18", 0.1288], ["2023-12-19", 0.1285], ["2023-12-21", 0.1256], ["2023-12-22", 0.1253], ["2023-12-25", 0.1244], ["2023-12-26", 0.1222], ["2023-12-26", 0.1055], ["2023-12-26", 0.1052], ["2023-12-26", 0.1043], ["2023-12-26", 0.1023], ["2023-12-27", 0.1152], ["2023-12-27", 0.1119], ["2023-12-27", 0.1106], ["2023-12-29", 0.1091], ["2023-12-29", 0.1088], ["2023-12-29", 0.0955], ["2023-12-30", 0.0954], ["2023-12-31", 0.0939], ["2023-12-31", 0.0932], ["2024-01-01", 0.0932]] | ["https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-will-focus-on-preparing-for-war-xi-jinping-declares/ar-AA13RBoR", "https://zeenews.india.com/world/whats-next-for-india-china-conflict-as-xi-jinping-begins-third-term-as-president-2537533.html", "https://www.economist.com/china/2022/09/22/some-progress-in-the-border-dispute-between-china-and-india", "https://www.accuweather.com/en/in/tawang/357115/september-weather/357115", "https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/face-off-between-indian-chinese-troops-near-lac-in-arunachal-on-december-9-minor-injuries-on-both-sides-news-agency-ani-3600347", "https://youtu.be/Qy8R2STPlCM", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Indian_border_dispute", "https://new.thecradle.co/articles/xi-modi-agree-to-de-escalate-tensions-on-disputed-himalayan-border", "https://www.indiatoday.in/amp/india-today-insight/story/how-india-is-tackling-chinese-spy-ship-yuan-wang-6-in-the-indian-ocean-region-2294895-2022-11-08", "https://www.ft.com/content/333aa07e-93ff-4e97-95c4-548bdccb5661", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/09/world/asia/india-china-border.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2020%E2%80%932022_China%E2%80%93India_skirmishes", "https://www.voanews.com/amp/china-border-resolution-leaves-some-in-india-unhappy-/6805279.html", "https://www.economist.com/asia/2020/06/18/india-and-china-have-their-first-deadly-clashes-in-45-years", "https://www.dw.com/en/india-china-border-clashes-erupted-on-december-9-says-delhi/a-64071941", "https://youtu.be/oCYZvRa5d6E", "https://carnegieindia.org/2023/12/15/stabilizing-border-possible-way-ahead-in-post-galwan-situation-pub-91244", "https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/4000912/files/S_PV.9245-EN.pdf?ln=en", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/01/opinion/india-china-himalayas.html", "https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/4000912?ln=en"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-02-22 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2269 |
<p>On 15 February 2022, the Russian Duma, or lower house of parliament, voted to ask President Putin to recognize two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent (<a href="http://duma.gov.ru/en/news/53431/" target="_blank">Russian Duma</a>, <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/russian-duma-asks-putin-to-recognize-ukrainian-regions-as-independent/a-60783596" target="_blank">Deutsche Welle</a>, <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-luhansk-donetsk-duma-recognition/31704804.html" target="_blank">Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty</a>). The Duma passed a similar resolution regarding South Ossetia and Abkhazia before then-President Medvedev recognized both of those regions in Georgia as independent states (<a href="https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=93971022" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/27/world/europe/27medvedev.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-02-22 | Will Russia officially recognize the Donetsk People's Republic and/or the Luhansk People's Republic in Ukraine as independent states before 1 September 2022? | 2022-02-17 | [["2022-02-18", 0.0], ["2022-02-18", 0.4], ["2022-02-18", 0.8], ["2022-02-18", 0.9], ["2022-02-18", 0.8], ["2022-02-18", 0.85], ["2022-02-18", 0.9], ["2022-02-18", 0.9], ["2022-02-18", 0.9], ["2022-02-18", 0.9], ["2022-02-18", 0.9], ["2022-02-18", 0.9], ["2022-02-18", 0.9], ["2022-02-18", 0.9], ["2022-02-18", 0.9], ["2022-02-18", 0.9], ["2022-02-18", 0.9], ["2022-02-18", 0.9], ["2022-02-18", 0.9], ["2022-02-18", 0.91], ["2022-02-19", 0.91], ["2022-02-19", 0.935], ["2022-02-19", 0.92], ["2022-02-19", 0.935], ["2022-02-19", 0.95], ["2022-02-19", 0.95], ["2022-02-19", 0.95], ["2022-02-19", 0.95], ["2022-02-19", 0.95], ["2022-02-19", 0.95], ["2022-02-19", 0.95], ["2022-02-19", 0.95], ["2022-02-19", 0.95], ["2022-02-19", 0.95], ["2022-02-19", 0.95], ["2022-02-19", 0.95], ["2022-02-19", 0.95], ["2022-02-19", 0.95], ["2022-02-19", 0.95], ["2022-02-19", 0.95], ["2022-02-19", 0.95], ["2022-02-19", 0.95], ["2022-02-19", 0.935], ["2022-02-20", 0.95], ["2022-02-20", 0.935], ["2022-02-20", 0.95], ["2022-02-20", 0.935], ["2022-02-20", 0.92], ["2022-02-20", 0.91], ["2022-02-20", 0.905], ["2022-02-20", 0.9], ["2022-02-20", 0.9], ["2022-02-20", 0.9], ["2022-02-20", 0.9], ["2022-02-20", 0.9], ["2022-02-20", 0.9], ["2022-02-20", 0.9], ["2022-02-20", 0.9], ["2022-02-20", 0.9], ["2022-02-21", 0.9], ["2022-02-21", 0.9], ["2022-02-21", 0.85], ["2022-02-21", 0.8], ["2022-02-21", 0.8], ["2022-02-21", 0.8], ["2022-02-21", 0.75], ["2022-02-21", 0.725], ["2022-02-21", 0.75], ["2022-02-21", 0.725], ["2022-02-21", 0.7], ["2022-02-21", 0.6], ["2022-02-21", 0.65], ["2022-02-21", 0.725], ["2022-02-21", 0.75], ["2022-02-21", 0.75], ["2022-02-21", 0.8], ["2022-02-21", 0.8], ["2022-02-21", 0.8], ["2022-02-21", 0.8], ["2022-02-21", 0.8], ["2022-02-21", 0.8], ["2022-02-21", 0.8], ["2022-02-21", 0.8], ["2022-02-21", 0.8], ["2022-02-21", 0.85], ["2022-02-21", 0.85], ["2022-02-21", 0.85], ["2022-02-21", 0.9], ["2022-02-21", 0.9], ["2022-02-21", 0.9], ["2022-02-21", 0.9], ["2022-02-21", 0.9], ["2022-02-21", 0.9], ["2022-02-21", 0.9], ["2022-02-21", 0.9], ["2022-02-21", 0.9], ["2022-02-21", 0.9], ["2022-02-21", 0.9], ["2022-02-21", 0.9], ["2022-02-21", 0.9], ["2022-02-21", 0.9], ["2022-02-21", 0.9], ["2022-02-21", 0.9], ["2022-02-21", 0.9], ["2022-02-21", 0.9], ["2022-02-21", 0.905], ["2022-02-21", 0.9], ["2022-02-21", 0.9], ["2022-02-21", 0.9], ["2022-02-21", 0.9], ["2022-02-21", 0.9], ["2022-02-21", 0.905], ["2022-02-21", 0.91], ["2022-02-21", 0.905], ["2022-02-21", 0.91], ["2022-02-21", 0.91], ["2022-02-21", 0.93], ["2022-02-21", 0.945], ["2022-02-21", 0.94], ["2022-02-21", 0.95], ["2022-02-21", 0.95], ["2022-02-21", 0.95], ["2022-02-21", 0.95], ["2022-02-21", 0.95], ["2022-02-21", 0.95], ["2022-02-21", 0.965], ["2022-02-21", 0.98], ["2022-02-21", 0.99], ["2022-02-21", 0.99], ["2022-02-21", 0.99], ["2022-02-21", 1.0], ["2022-02-21", 1.0], ["2022-02-21", 1.0], ["2022-02-22", 1.0], ["2022-02-22", 1.0], ["2022-02-22", 1.0], ["2022-02-22", 1.0], ["2022-02-22", 1.0], ["2022-02-22", 1.0], ["2022-02-22", 1.0], ["2022-02-22", 1.0], ["2022-02-22", 1.0], ["2022-02-22", 1.0], ["2022-02-22", 1.0], ["2022-02-22", 1.0], ["2022-02-22", 1.0], ["2022-02-22", 1.0], ["2022-02-22", 1.0], ["2022-02-22", 1.0], ["2022-02-22", 1.0], ["2022-02-22", 1.0], ["2022-02-22", 1.0], ["2022-02-22", 1.0], ["2022-02-22", 1.0], ["2022-02-22", 1.0], ["2022-02-22", 1.0], ["2022-02-22", 1.0], ["2022-02-22", 1.0], ["2022-02-22", 1.0], ["2022-02-22", 1.0]] | ["https://mobile.twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1494788414205579265", "http://www.levadia.ru/en", "https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukraine-defense-chief-says-low-probability-major-conflict-russia-contradicting-biden", "https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/21/world/ukraine-russia-putin-biden", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60468234", "https://www.dw.com/en/putin-to-recognize-ukraine-separatist-regions-as-independent-kremlin/a-60861963?maca=en-newsletter_en_bulletin-2097-xml-newsletter&r=47277061244719920&lid=2062420&pm_ln=135404", "https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/putins-recognition-ukraines-rebels-ups-ante-crisis-83031230", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/feb/21/russia-ukraine-news-latest-crisis-putin-biden-summit-kyiv-kiev-russian-invasion-threat-live-updates"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2022-11-08 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2313 |
<p>President Volodymyr Zelensky has pushed for greater NATO involvement in the defense of Ukraine (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60629175" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/putin-warns-against-no-fly-zone-over-ukraine/" target="_blank">CBS News</a>). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results at least three fatalities (total, not each) for the national military forces and/or law enforcement of either side. As of launch, there were 30 NATO member states (<a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_52044.htm" target="_blank">NATO</a>). For the purposes of this question, members of armed forces fighting without command authorization are not considered "national military forces and/or law enforcement" (e.g., <a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-europe-d0243a1708a3115e5ad0ac40aed99b9f" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-60684749" target="_blank">BBC</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2022-11-08 | Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and/or law enforcement of Russia and those of a NATO member state resulting in at least three fatalities before 8 November 2022? | 2022-03-10 | [["2022-03-11", 0.02666666666666667], ["2022-03-11", 0.18333333333333332], ["2022-03-11", 0.27125], ["2022-03-11", 0.25], ["2022-03-11", 0.253], ["2022-03-12", 0.3], ["2022-03-12", 0.308], ["2022-03-12", 0.334], ["2022-03-12", 0.275], ["2022-03-12", 0.12545454545454546], ["2022-03-12", 0.18666666666666668], ["2022-03-12", 0.17], ["2022-03-13", 0.09153846153846154], ["2022-03-13", 0.09642857142857143], ["2022-03-13", 0.07], ["2022-03-13", 0.0675], ["2022-03-13", 0.14944444444444444], ["2022-03-13", 0.2338888888888889], ["2022-03-13", 0.3], ["2022-03-13", 0.2885714285714286], ["2022-03-13", 0.315], ["2022-03-14", 0.34136363636363637], ["2022-03-14", 0.36782608695652175], ["2022-03-14", 0.37041666666666667], ["2022-03-14", 0.3832], ["2022-03-14", 0.3303846153846154], ["2022-03-14", 0.28888888888888886], ["2022-03-14", 0.26107142857142857], ["2022-03-14", 0.2403448275862069], ["2022-03-14", 0.242], ["2022-03-14", 0.27419354838709675], ["2022-03-15", 0.28516129032258064], ["2022-03-15", 0.256875], ["2022-03-15", 0.2512121212121212], ["2022-03-15", 0.24235294117647058], ["2022-03-15", 0.2591428571428571], ["2022-03-15", 0.2633333333333333], ["2022-03-16", 0.25864864864864867], ["2022-03-16", 0.23657894736842106], ["2022-03-16", 0.24578947368421053], ["2022-03-16", 0.2317948717948718], ["2022-03-17", 0.22975], ["2022-03-17", 0.2295], ["2022-03-18", 0.21902439024390244], ["2022-03-18", 0.2123809523809524], ["2022-03-18", 0.21511627906976744], ["2022-03-18", 0.19772727272727272], ["2022-03-18", 0.17954545454545454], ["2022-03-19", 0.19644444444444445], ["2022-03-20", 0.18891304347826088], ["2022-03-20", 0.17695652173913043], ["2022-03-21", 0.17], ["2022-03-21", 0.1748936170212766], ["2022-03-21", 0.19395833333333334], ["2022-03-22", 0.17875], ["2022-03-23", 0.19183673469387755], ["2022-03-24", 0.1894], ["2022-03-24", 0.192], ["2022-03-24", 0.191], ["2022-03-24", 0.1896078431372549], ["2022-03-25", 0.20653846153846153], ["2022-03-26", 0.2205769230769231], ["2022-03-26", 0.2275], ["2022-03-27", 0.2371698113207547], ["2022-03-28", 0.23169811320754716], ["2022-03-28", 0.22830188679245284], ["2022-03-29", 0.2235185185185185], ["2022-03-29", 0.2238888888888889], ["2022-03-29", 0.22296296296296297], ["2022-03-31", 0.22111111111111112], ["2022-04-01", 0.2101851851851852], ["2022-04-01", 0.20981481481481482], ["2022-04-02", 0.21], ["2022-04-03", 0.22490909090909092], ["2022-04-03", 0.228], ["2022-04-04", 0.2290909090909091], ["2022-04-04", 0.23254545454545456], ["2022-04-05", 0.2289090909090909], ["2022-04-06", 0.23563636363636364], ["2022-04-07", 0.22982142857142857], ["2022-04-07", 0.22578947368421054], ["2022-04-07", 0.22649122807017544], ["2022-04-08", 0.2268421052631579], ["2022-04-09", 0.22482758620689655], ["2022-04-10", 0.22913793103448277], ["2022-04-11", 0.22913793103448277], ["2022-04-11", 0.2267241379310345], ["2022-04-12", 0.2286206896551724], ["2022-04-12", 0.22913793103448277], ["2022-04-13", 0.22491525423728814], ["2022-04-14", 0.22135593220338984], ["2022-04-14", 0.22101694915254239], ["2022-04-15", 0.2171186440677966], ["2022-04-15", 0.21559322033898304], ["2022-04-16", 0.1988135593220339], ["2022-04-17", 0.19915254237288135], ["2022-04-18", 0.19898305084745763], ["2022-04-18", 0.18966666666666668], ["2022-04-19", 0.1895], ["2022-04-20", 0.18966666666666668], ["2022-04-21", 0.19540983606557377], ["2022-04-21", 0.19508196721311474], ["2022-04-22", 0.19754098360655736], ["2022-04-23", 0.1935483870967742], ["2022-04-23", 0.20225806451612904], ["2022-04-25", 0.20483870967741935], ["2022-04-25", 0.20451612903225808], ["2022-04-26", 0.20274193548387096], ["2022-04-26", 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["2022-07-24", 0.14853333333333332], ["2022-07-25", 0.14786666666666667], ["2022-07-25", 0.14605263157894738], ["2022-07-26", 0.14592105263157895], ["2022-07-27", 0.14578947368421052], ["2022-07-28", 0.14513157894736842], ["2022-07-29", 0.14328947368421052], ["2022-07-29", 0.1438157894736842], ["2022-07-30", 0.1436842105263158], ["2022-07-31", 0.14355263157894738], ["2022-08-01", 0.1431578947368421], ["2022-08-01", 0.1425], ["2022-08-02", 0.14223684210526316], ["2022-08-03", 0.14223684210526316], ["2022-08-04", 0.14210526315789473], ["2022-08-05", 0.14210526315789473], ["2022-08-05", 0.13407894736842105], ["2022-08-08", 0.13394736842105262], ["2022-08-08", 0.1332894736842105], ["2022-08-09", 0.1293421052631579], ["2022-08-11", 0.12921052631578947], ["2022-08-12", 0.1281578947368421], ["2022-08-14", 0.1406578947368421], ["2022-08-16", 0.13973684210526316], ["2022-08-18", 0.13828947368421052], ["2022-08-19", 0.13671052631578948], ["2022-08-21", 0.1379], ["2022-08-23", 0.1379], 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["2022-11-02", 0.0419], ["2022-11-02", 0.0373], ["2022-11-02", 0.0373], ["2022-11-03", 0.0465], ["2022-11-03", 0.051], ["2022-11-03", 0.0473], ["2022-11-04", 0.046], ["2022-11-04", 0.0457], ["2022-11-04", 0.0456], ["2022-11-05", 0.0451], ["2022-11-06", 0.0448], ["2022-11-06", 0.0338], ["2022-11-07", 0.0335], ["2022-11-07", 0.0321], ["2022-11-08", 0.0295], ["2022-11-08", 0.0295]] | ["https://twitter.com/mentecritica/status/1521754768045133827?s=21&t=ZNhMfXhdgtzIEAdSJt8NZQ", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-turkey-warplane-idUSKCN0SA15K20151016", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/06/24/kaliningrad-russia-lithuania-crisis-lead-to-war/", "https://www.ft.com/content/c5e376f9-7351-40d3-b058-1873b2ef1924", "https://www.ft.com/content/4e211784-83eb-49a2-ba39-8976345a88d5", "https://vnexplorer.net/?#us-sends-two-patriot-missile-batteries-to-poland-pentagon-s600453.html", "https://twitter.com/kaylatausche/status/1503507235389022212", "https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/02/turkey-closes-the-dardanelles-and-bosphorus-to-warships/", "https://fortune.com/2022/03/13/nato-will-act-russia-hits-alliance-us/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-medvedev-says-any-nato-encroachment-crimea-could-lead-world-war-three-2022-06-27/", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/13/russia-widens-attacks-on-ukraine-with-missile-strike-on-base-close-to-polish-border", "https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_192648.htm", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suwa%C5%82ki_Gap", "https://reliefweb.int/report/ukraine/ukraine-catalogue-explosive-weapon-harm-civilians-2014", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nato-plans-permanent-military-presence-border-says-stoltenberg-telegraph-2022-04-09/", "https://twitter.com/KarolDarmoros/status/1503847478629650435", "https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1503146386279313415?s=20&t=tZcF073VLHlAE2u1dPNf7A", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/12/arms-shipments-are-a-legitimate-military-target-kremlin-warns-west", "https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-4", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/06/07/ukraine-nato-allies-rethinking-russia-military-prowess/", "https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/eu-just-implemented-risky-anti-russia-measure-could-trigger-ww3-few-are-taking-notice", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Liberty_incident", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/06/us/politics/us-ukraine-weapons.html", "https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/sweden-accuses-russian-spy-plane-of-violating-airspace", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/17/unacceptable-russian-warship-accused-of-violating-danish-waters"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2020-03-10 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1424 | <p>Amid political turmoil in the South American country, Fitch Ratings downgraded Bolivia's long-term credit rating from BB- to B+ (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/bolivia-ratings-fitch/fitch-downgrades-bolivia-amid-political-instability-idUSL3N2815HF" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/10102814" target="_blank">Fitch Ratings</a>). In early December 2019, Moody's announced that it was putting Bolivia's rating under review (<a href="https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-places-Bolivias-Ba3-rating-under-review-for-downgrade--PR_403833" target="_blank">Moody's</a>). As of 13 December 2019, Moody's rating was Ba3 and S&P's rating was BB- (<a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/bolivia/rating" target="_blank">Trading Economics</a>, <a href="https://wolfstreet.com/credit-rating-scales-by-moodys-sp-and-fitch/" target="_blank">Wolf Street</a>). The question will resolve based on a change to the long-term foreign currency credit rating. Any changes to the outlook or other ratings for Bolivia would be immaterial.</p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-Bolivias-ratings-to-B1-changes-outlook-to-negative--PR_418603?WT.mc_id=MDCAlerts_realtime~2F1C912F-2FC5-4EF1-8A0D-A6D13AFFFE10" target="_blank">Moody's</a>).</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2020-03-10 | Between 13 December 2019 and 1 May 2020, will either Moody's or S&P downgrade Bolivia's credit rating? | 2019-12-12 | [["2019-12-20", 0.45], ["2019-12-20", 0.7], ["2019-12-21", 0.95], ["2019-12-21", 0.95], ["2019-12-21", 0.95], ["2019-12-21", 0.95], ["2019-12-22", 0.88], ["2019-12-22", 0.865], ["2019-12-22", 0.85], ["2019-12-26", 0.865], ["2019-12-26", 0.85], ["2019-12-27", 0.85], ["2019-12-28", 0.85], ["2019-12-28", 0.85], ["2019-12-28", 0.85], ["2019-12-29", 0.85], ["2019-12-29", 0.85], ["2019-12-29", 0.85], ["2019-12-29", 0.85], ["2019-12-29", 0.85], ["2019-12-30", 0.85], ["2019-12-30", 0.75], ["2019-12-31", 0.625], ["2019-12-31", 0.625], ["2019-12-31", 0.585], ["2020-01-01", 0.585], ["2020-01-01", 0.585], ["2020-01-01", 0.585], ["2020-01-01", 0.585], ["2020-01-01", 0.6], ["2020-01-01", 0.61], ["2020-01-02", 0.61], ["2020-01-02", 0.61], ["2020-01-02", 0.61], ["2020-01-02", 0.61], ["2020-01-02", 0.61], ["2020-01-03", 0.61], ["2020-01-03", 0.62], ["2020-01-03", 0.62], ["2020-01-03", 0.61], ["2020-01-03", 0.61], ["2020-01-04", 0.61], ["2020-01-04", 0.625], ["2020-01-04", 0.625], ["2020-01-05", 0.6], ["2020-01-05", 0.5], ["2020-01-05", 0.5], ["2020-01-05", 0.525], ["2020-01-06", 0.525], ["2020-01-06", 0.6], ["2020-01-06", 0.65], ["2020-01-06", 0.65], ["2020-01-07", 0.65], ["2020-01-07", 0.55], ["2020-01-07", 0.56], ["2020-01-09", 0.56], ["2020-01-09", 0.56], ["2020-01-10", 0.535], ["2020-01-10", 0.475], ["2020-01-10", 0.415], ["2020-01-10", 0.415], ["2020-01-10", 0.42], ["2020-01-11", 0.42], ["2020-01-11", 0.42], ["2020-01-11", 0.43], ["2020-01-12", 0.52], ["2020-01-13", 0.52], ["2020-01-14", 0.44], ["2020-01-14", 0.435], ["2020-01-14", 0.435], ["2020-01-14", 0.425], ["2020-01-14", 0.425], ["2020-01-14", 0.425], ["2020-01-15", 0.425], ["2020-01-15", 0.425], ["2020-01-15", 0.42], ["2020-01-15", 0.43], ["2020-01-18", 0.425], ["2020-01-19", 0.425], ["2020-01-19", 0.41], ["2020-01-19", 0.39], ["2020-01-19", 0.41], ["2020-01-19", 0.42], ["2020-01-19", 0.42], ["2020-01-19", 0.435], ["2020-01-19", 0.475], ["2020-01-19", 0.5], ["2020-01-19", 0.5], ["2020-01-19", 0.5], ["2020-01-19", 0.5], ["2020-01-19", 0.5], ["2020-01-19", 0.5], ["2020-01-19", 0.5], ["2020-01-19", 0.5], ["2020-01-19", 0.5], ["2020-01-19", 0.5], ["2020-01-19", 0.5], ["2020-01-19", 0.5], ["2020-01-19", 0.5], ["2020-01-19", 0.5], ["2020-01-19", 0.475], ["2020-01-19", 0.5], ["2020-01-19", 0.5], ["2020-01-19", 0.5], ["2020-01-19", 0.5], ["2020-01-19", 0.5], ["2020-01-19", 0.5], ["2020-01-19", 0.5], ["2020-01-19", 0.5], ["2020-01-19", 0.51], ["2020-01-19", 0.505], ["2020-01-19", 0.53], ["2020-01-19", 0.55], ["2020-01-20", 0.53], ["2020-01-20", 0.505], ["2020-01-20", 0.51], ["2020-01-20", 0.55], ["2020-01-20", 0.55], ["2020-01-20", 0.55], ["2020-01-20", 0.55], ["2020-01-21", 0.53], ["2020-01-21", 0.53], ["2020-01-21", 0.505], ["2020-01-21", 0.5], ["2020-01-22", 0.5], ["2020-01-22", 0.5], ["2020-01-22", 0.5], ["2020-01-22", 0.5], ["2020-01-23", 0.5], ["2020-01-23", 0.5], ["2020-01-24", 0.5], ["2020-01-25", 0.5], ["2020-01-25", 0.5], ["2020-01-26", 0.5], ["2020-01-26", 0.5], ["2020-01-26", 0.5], ["2020-01-26", 0.5], ["2020-01-26", 0.53], ["2020-01-27", 0.53], ["2020-01-27", 0.53], ["2020-01-27", 0.53], ["2020-01-28", 0.53], ["2020-01-28", 0.54], ["2020-01-29", 0.54], ["2020-01-29", 0.54], ["2020-01-29", 0.54], ["2020-01-30", 0.54], ["2020-01-30", 0.55], ["2020-01-30", 0.55], ["2020-01-31", 0.55], ["2020-02-01", 0.55], ["2020-02-02", 0.55], ["2020-02-02", 0.55], ["2020-02-03", 0.55], ["2020-02-04", 0.54], ["2020-02-04", 0.54], ["2020-02-05", 0.54], ["2020-02-06", 0.515], ["2020-02-06", 0.515], ["2020-02-09", 0.515], ["2020-02-10", 0.5], ["2020-02-12", 0.5], ["2020-02-12", 0.515], ["2020-02-12", 0.5], ["2020-02-12", 0.45], ["2020-02-13", 0.45], ["2020-02-13", 0.44], ["2020-02-13", 0.44], ["2020-02-13", 0.44], ["2020-02-14", 0.44], ["2020-02-14", 0.44], ["2020-02-15", 0.44], ["2020-02-15", 0.44], ["2020-02-15", 0.44], ["2020-02-16", 0.44], ["2020-02-18", 0.44], ["2020-02-19", 0.44], ["2020-02-19", 0.445], ["2020-02-19", 0.445], ["2020-02-20", 0.445], ["2020-02-21", 0.44], ["2020-02-21", 0.44], ["2020-02-22", 0.44], ["2020-02-22", 0.44], ["2020-02-23", 0.44], ["2020-02-23", 0.4], ["2020-02-23", 0.4], ["2020-02-23", 0.4], ["2020-02-23", 0.4], ["2020-02-23", 0.38], ["2020-02-24", 0.38], ["2020-02-24", 0.37], ["2020-02-24", 0.37], ["2020-02-25", 0.37], ["2020-02-25", 0.35], ["2020-02-26", 0.35], ["2020-02-26", 0.35], ["2020-02-26", 0.35], ["2020-02-26", 0.35], ["2020-02-27", 0.35], ["2020-02-28", 0.35], ["2020-02-28", 0.35], ["2020-02-28", 0.35], ["2020-02-28", 0.35], ["2020-02-29", 0.35], ["2020-03-01", 0.35], ["2020-03-01", 0.35], ["2020-03-01", 0.345], ["2020-03-02", 0.32], ["2020-03-02", 0.32], ["2020-03-03", 0.32], ["2020-03-04", 0.285], ["2020-03-04", 0.285], ["2020-03-04", 0.285], ["2020-03-05", 0.27], ["2020-03-05", 0.27], ["2020-03-05", 0.27], ["2020-03-05", 0.27], ["2020-03-05", 0.26], ["2020-03-06", 0.25], ["2020-03-06", 0.25], ["2020-03-06", 0.25], ["2020-03-07", 0.25], ["2020-03-07", 0.25], ["2020-03-07", 0.25], ["2020-03-09", 0.25], ["2020-03-09", 0.25], ["2020-03-10", 0.25], ["2020-03-10", 0.25], ["2020-03-10", 0.25], ["2020-03-10", 0.25], ["2020-03-10", 0.25]] | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2021-01-07 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1809 |
<p>Per the 12th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, the House of Representatives votes for the next president of the United States with one vote per state in the event that the electoral college fails to select a president (<a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxii" target="_blank">Cornell (Amendment XII)</a>). The question would close upon the counting of electoral votes by a joint session of Congress designating a winner.</p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-01-14 | Before 21 January 2021, will the House of Representatives, pursuant to the 12th Amendment, vote to choose a president of the United States? | 2020-10-15 | [["2020-10-15", 0.01], ["2020-10-15", 0.005], ["2020-10-15", 0.0], ["2020-10-15", 0.005], ["2020-10-15", 0.0], ["2020-10-15", 0.0], ["2020-10-15", 0.0], ["2020-10-15", 0.0], ["2020-10-15", 0.0], ["2020-10-15", 0.0], ["2020-10-15", 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["2020-12-24", 0.0], ["2020-12-26", 0.0], ["2020-12-26", 0.0], ["2020-12-26", 0.0], ["2020-12-26", 0.0], ["2020-12-26", 0.0], ["2020-12-26", 0.0], ["2020-12-27", 0.0], ["2020-12-28", 0.0], ["2020-12-29", 0.0], ["2020-12-29", 0.0], ["2020-12-29", 0.0], ["2020-12-30", 0.0], ["2020-12-30", 0.0], ["2021-01-01", 0.0], ["2021-01-01", 0.0], ["2021-01-02", 0.0], ["2021-01-02", 0.0], ["2021-01-02", 0.0], ["2021-01-02", 0.0], ["2021-01-03", 0.0], ["2021-01-03", 0.0], ["2021-01-03", 0.0], ["2021-01-03", 0.0], ["2021-01-04", 0.0], ["2021-01-04", 0.0], ["2021-01-04", 0.0], ["2021-01-04", 0.0], ["2021-01-05", 0.0], ["2021-01-05", 0.0], ["2021-01-05", 0.0], ["2021-01-05", 0.0], ["2021-01-05", 0.0], ["2021-01-06", 0.0], ["2021-01-06", 0.0], ["2021-01-06", 0.0], ["2021-01-06", 0.0], ["2021-01-07", 0.0], ["2021-01-07", 0.0]] | ["https://apnews.com/article/safe-harbor-law-locks-congress-joe-biden-119b6e1570f33af0baee1493cbbe012b", "https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/30/hawley-challenge-biden-electors-forcing-vote-452319", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_Count_Act", "https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxii"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-07-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2534 |
<p>The COVID-19 pandemic hit the us labor market hard, and labor force participation has not recovered to pre-pandemic levels (<a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-08-29/could-feds-softening-labor-market-prediction-mean-4-million-lost-jobs" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/2022/08/03/can-a-hot-but-smaller-labor-market-keep-making-gains-in-participation/" target="_blank">Brookings Institution</a>, <a href="https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/american-workforce-continues-shrink-falls-400k-since-march-nearly-hitting-prepandemic-levels" target="_blank">Fox Business</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2022 and the outcome determined using Bureau of Labor Statistics data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) (<a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART" target="_blank">FRED</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-07-07 | Will the US civilian labor force participation rate reach or exceed 63.0% for any month before July 2023? | 2022-09-02 | [["2022-09-02", 0.1], ["2022-09-02", 0.15], ["2022-09-02", 0.3667], ["2022-09-02", 0.275], ["2022-09-02", 0.22], ["2022-09-02", 0.2483], ["2022-09-02", 0.2629], ["2022-09-02", 0.3425], ["2022-09-02", 0.3544], ["2022-09-03", 0.319], ["2022-09-03", 0.29], ["2022-09-03", 0.2958], ["2022-09-03", 0.2962], ["2022-09-03", 0.2923], ["2022-09-03", 0.2871], ["2022-09-03", 0.2927], ["2022-09-03", 0.3119], ["2022-09-03", 0.3235], ["2022-09-03", 0.3472], ["2022-09-03", 0.3474], ["2022-09-03", 0.3425], ["2022-09-03", 0.343], ["2022-09-03", 0.3395], ["2022-09-04", 0.3432], ["2022-09-04", 0.3543], ["2022-09-04", 0.3543], ["2022-09-04", 0.3565], ["2022-09-05", 0.3508], ["2022-09-05", 0.3479], ["2022-09-05", 0.362], ["2022-09-05", 0.3781], ["2022-09-05", 0.3858], 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["2023-06-28", 0.0285], ["2023-06-29", 0.0285], ["2023-06-29", 0.0185], ["2023-06-30", 0.0185], ["2023-07-01", 0.0185], ["2023-07-01", 0.0185], ["2023-07-01", 0.0185]] | ["https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CNP16OV", "https://www.brookings.edu/2022/08/03/can-a-hot-but-smaller-labor-market-keep-making-gains-in-participation/", "https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jul/25/britains-great-unretirement-cost-of-living-drives-older-people-back-to-work", "https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/labor-force-participation-rate", "https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-leading-economic-indicators-tumble-13th-straight-month-weaknesses-were", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/09/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-mohamed-el-erian.html", "https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1501226", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CLF16OV", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-illnesses-are-keeping-at-least-500-000-workers-out-of-u-s-labor-force-study-says-11662955321", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/august-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-economy-growth-2022-11662062706", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Resignation#:~:text=in%20the%20UK.-,Meanwhile,-%2C%20the%20authors%20attribute", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/release/tables?rid=446&eid=784070", "https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/participationrate.asp", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/september-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-economy-growth-2022-11665091101", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/09/20/american-post-pandemic-labor-shortage-explained/", "https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/understanding-decline-labour-force-participation-rate-united-states", "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/hiring-surges-but-trends-show-more-working-age-men-dropping-out-of-labor-force"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1908 |
<p>Years of civil war and other factors have greatly increased food insecurity in Yemen, and the UN and others fear that US policy toward Houthi rebels may exacerbate the problems and lead to famine in the country (<a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/01/1082082" target="_blank">UN</a>, <a href="https://www.rcinet.ca/en/2021/01/16/aid-groups-worry-u-s-terrorist-designation-of-yemen-rebels-will-hasten-famine/" target="_blank">Radio Canada International</a>, <a href="https://www.indepthnews.net/index.php/sustainability/food-security-nutrition-sustainable-agriculture/4093-desert-locust-upsurge-continues-to-threaten-food-security-in-the-horn-of-africa" target="_blank">In Depth News</a>). For general information on how famines are declared, see: <a href="http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/alerts-archive/issue-24/en/" target="_blank">Integrated Food Security Phase Classification</a>, <a href="http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean" target="_blank">NPR</a>.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-01-03 | Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021? | 2021-01-20 | [["2021-01-22", 0.175], ["2021-01-22", 0.33], ["2021-01-22", 0.39], ["2021-01-22", 0.25], ["2021-01-23", 0.165], ["2021-01-23", 0.24], ["2021-01-23", 0.3], ["2021-01-23", 0.35], ["2021-01-23", 0.29], ["2021-01-23", 0.315], ["2021-01-23", 0.34], ["2021-01-24", 0.35], ["2021-01-24", 0.35], ["2021-01-24", 0.38], ["2021-01-25", 0.395], ["2021-01-25", 0.395], ["2021-01-25", 0.41], ["2021-01-25", 0.41], ["2021-01-25", 0.43], ["2021-01-26", 0.45], ["2021-01-27", 0.5], ["2021-01-27", 0.5], ["2021-01-27", 0.5], ["2021-01-27", 0.5], ["2021-01-27", 0.5], ["2021-01-27", 0.5], ["2021-01-28", 0.545], ["2021-01-28", 0.545], ["2021-01-28", 0.55], ["2021-01-28", 0.55], ["2021-01-28", 0.55], ["2021-01-28", 0.65], ["2021-01-28", 0.72], ["2021-01-28", 0.625], ["2021-01-28", 0.7], ["2021-01-29", 0.7], 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["2021-07-04", 0.2], ["2021-07-10", 0.2], ["2021-07-12", 0.2], ["2021-07-13", 0.2], ["2021-07-13", 0.18], ["2021-07-14", 0.155], ["2021-07-15", 0.155], ["2021-07-17", 0.155], ["2021-07-18", 0.135], ["2021-07-19", 0.135], ["2021-07-20", 0.135], ["2021-07-21", 0.13], ["2021-07-25", 0.12], ["2021-07-27", 0.12], ["2021-07-27", 0.12], ["2021-07-28", 0.12], ["2021-07-28", 0.12], ["2021-07-31", 0.115], ["2021-08-02", 0.105], ["2021-08-03", 0.105], ["2021-08-04", 0.105], ["2021-08-05", 0.1], ["2021-08-06", 0.1], ["2021-08-08", 0.1], ["2021-08-09", 0.1], ["2021-08-10", 0.1], ["2021-08-11", 0.1], ["2021-08-12", 0.1], ["2021-08-13", 0.1], ["2021-08-14", 0.1], ["2021-08-19", 0.1], ["2021-08-20", 0.1], ["2021-08-22", 0.1], ["2021-08-24", 0.1], ["2021-08-29", 0.1], ["2021-08-30", 0.1], ["2021-09-02", 0.1], ["2021-09-04", 0.1], ["2021-09-05", 0.1], ["2021-09-08", 0.1], ["2021-09-11", 0.1], ["2021-09-13", 0.1], ["2021-09-15", 0.1], ["2021-09-19", 0.1], ["2021-09-22", 0.07], ["2021-09-23", 0.1], ["2021-09-26", 0.1], ["2021-09-26", 0.1], ["2021-09-28", 0.1], ["2021-09-30", 0.1], ["2021-10-01", 0.1], ["2021-10-03", 0.1], ["2021-10-07", 0.07], ["2021-10-08", 0.07], ["2021-10-09", 0.07], ["2021-10-10", 0.07], ["2021-10-11", 0.07], ["2021-10-13", 0.06], ["2021-10-14", 0.06], ["2021-10-17", 0.055], ["2021-10-17", 0.055], ["2021-10-21", 0.055], ["2021-10-24", 0.05], ["2021-10-25", 0.05], ["2021-10-27", 0.05], ["2021-11-03", 0.05], ["2021-11-07", 0.045], ["2021-11-08", 0.035], ["2021-11-09", 0.03], ["2021-11-10", 0.03], ["2021-11-12", 0.03], ["2021-11-15", 0.03], ["2021-11-17", 0.03], ["2021-11-18", 0.03], ["2021-11-20", 0.03], ["2021-11-22", 0.03], ["2021-11-23", 0.015], ["2021-11-23", 0.01], ["2021-11-24", 0.01], ["2021-11-26", 0.01], ["2021-11-26", 0.01], ["2021-11-30", 0.01], ["2021-12-04", 0.01], ["2021-12-06", 0.01], ["2021-12-06", 0.005], ["2021-12-10", 0.005], ["2021-12-13", 0.005], ["2021-12-16", 0.005], ["2021-12-17", 0.0], ["2021-12-19", 0.0], ["2021-12-19", 0.0], ["2021-12-20", 0.0], ["2021-12-22", 0.0], ["2021-12-23", 0.0], ["2021-12-25", 0.0], ["2021-12-26", 0.0], ["2021-12-29", 0.0], ["2021-12-30", 0.0], ["2022-01-01", 0.0], ["2022-01-01", 0.0]] | ["https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/22/wfp-forced-to-cut-food-aid-to-yemen-amid-lacking-funds", "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-envoy-back-gulf-push-yemen-truce-battles-spread-2021-07-28/", "https://fews.net/east-africa/yemen", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security-timeline/timeline-yemens-slide-into-political-crisis-and-war-idUSKCN1R20HO?il=0", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1318615", "https://www.voanews.com/middle-east/conflict-and-economic-collapse-war-torn-yemen-worsening-hunger-crisis", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1252199", "https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/464322/5-million-Yemenis-one-step-away-from-famine", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1255315", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1254899", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1254886", "https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20211225-saudi-led-coalition-launches-large-scale-yemen-operation-after-deadly-strike", "https://www.rescue.org/press-release/yemen-currency-devalues-historic-lows-exacerbating-hunger-needs-warns-irc", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1250280", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1221803", "https://reliefweb.int/report/yemen/statement-wfp-executive-director-qatari-funding-humanitarian-operations-yemen", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1251956", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1247499", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/24/millions-one-step-away-from-famine-in-yemen-un-warns", "https://apnews.com/article/united-nations-general-assembly-middle-east-united-states-saudi-arabia-united-nations-e9092fbed471e2fe387a395558bdbc28", "https://www.wral.com/us-announces-more-aid-as-yemen-fighting-peace-efforts-stall/19818741/", "https://www.voanews.com/middle-east/yemen-says-rebel-government-clashes-kill-111-3-days", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/9/us-announces-165-million-humanitarian-aid-to-yemen", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/22/yemen-currency-clash-deepens-crisis-in-war-torn-country", "https://reliefweb.int/report/yemen/european-union-provides-support-wfps-famine-relief-efforts-yemen"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2020-11-08 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1807 |
<p>The outcome of this question will be determined using data for Brazil States reported by the World Health Organization between 9 October 2020 and 31 December 2020 (<a href="https://covid19.who.int/region/amro/country/br" target="_blank">WHO COVID-19 Dashboard (Brazil)</a>). For the seven consecutive day period from 22 September 2020 and 28 September 2020 (using daily numbers), WHO reported 4,874 deaths. Deaths data for days prior to 9 October 2020 are immaterial to the resolution of this question. The data provided on the WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard at approximately 5:00PM ET each day will now be used to resolve this question.</p><p></p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2020-11-10 | For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October and 31 December 2020, will there be fewer than 2,000 deaths of COVID-19 in the Brazil? | 2020-10-09 | [["2020-10-09", 1.0], ["2020-10-09", 0.535], ["2020-10-09", 0.07], ["2020-10-09", 0.07], ["2020-10-09", 0.335], ["2020-10-09", 0.435], ["2020-10-09", 0.8], ["2020-10-09", 0.65], ["2020-10-09", 0.5], ["2020-10-09", 0.415], ["2020-10-09", 0.5], ["2020-10-09", 0.505], ["2020-10-09", 0.505], ["2020-10-09", 0.505], ["2020-10-09", 0.505], ["2020-10-09", 0.505], ["2020-10-09", 0.45], ["2020-10-10", 0.365], ["2020-10-10", 0.325], ["2020-10-10", 0.325], ["2020-10-10", 0.225], ["2020-10-10", 0.225], ["2020-10-10", 0.175], ["2020-10-10", 0.175], ["2020-10-10", 0.175], ["2020-10-10", 0.225], ["2020-10-10", 0.175], ["2020-10-10", 0.15], ["2020-10-11", 0.14], ["2020-10-11", 0.15], ["2020-10-11", 0.25], ["2020-10-11", 0.2], ["2020-10-11", 0.2], ["2020-10-11", 0.2], ["2020-10-11", 0.2], ["2020-10-11", 0.2], ["2020-10-11", 0.2], ["2020-10-11", 0.27], ["2020-10-11", 0.2], ["2020-10-12", 0.235], ["2020-10-12", 0.235], ["2020-10-12", 0.19], ["2020-10-12", 0.275], ["2020-10-12", 0.275], ["2020-10-13", 0.2], ["2020-10-13", 0.2], ["2020-10-13", 0.19], ["2020-10-13", 0.18], ["2020-10-13", 0.14], ["2020-10-13", 0.11], ["2020-10-13", 0.11], ["2020-10-13", 0.11], ["2020-10-13", 0.11], ["2020-10-13", 0.15], ["2020-10-13", 0.165], ["2020-10-13", 0.165], ["2020-10-14", 0.165], ["2020-10-14", 0.21], ["2020-10-14", 0.13], ["2020-10-14", 0.13], ["2020-10-14", 0.21], ["2020-10-15", 0.22], ["2020-10-15", 0.25], ["2020-10-15", 0.275], ["2020-10-15", 0.315], ["2020-10-15", 0.315], ["2020-10-15", 0.3], ["2020-10-15", 0.25], ["2020-10-15", 0.25], ["2020-10-15", 0.3], ["2020-10-15", 0.3], ["2020-10-15", 0.3], ["2020-10-15", 0.3], ["2020-10-16", 0.3], ["2020-10-16", 0.3], ["2020-10-17", 0.3], ["2020-10-17", 0.3], ["2020-10-18", 0.3], ["2020-10-18", 0.275], ["2020-10-18", 0.315], ["2020-10-18", 0.26], ["2020-10-18", 0.26], ["2020-10-18", 0.21], ["2020-10-18", 0.2], ["2020-10-19", 0.21], ["2020-10-19", 0.21], ["2020-10-19", 0.2], ["2020-10-19", 0.2], ["2020-10-19", 0.2], ["2020-10-19", 0.2], ["2020-10-19", 0.2], ["2020-10-20", 0.2], ["2020-10-20", 0.2], ["2020-10-20", 0.225], ["2020-10-20", 0.225], ["2020-10-20", 0.225], ["2020-10-21", 0.225], ["2020-10-22", 0.225], ["2020-10-23", 0.225], ["2020-10-23", 0.225], ["2020-10-23", 0.225], ["2020-10-23", 0.2], ["2020-10-24", 0.2], ["2020-10-24", 0.2], ["2020-10-24", 0.2], ["2020-10-24", 0.2], ["2020-10-24", 0.2], ["2020-10-26", 0.2], ["2020-10-26", 0.2], ["2020-10-26", 0.2], ["2020-10-27", 0.25], ["2020-10-27", 0.25], ["2020-10-27", 0.25], ["2020-10-28", 0.27], ["2020-10-28", 0.27], ["2020-10-28", 0.3], ["2020-10-28", 0.3], ["2020-10-28", 0.3], ["2020-10-28", 0.3], ["2020-10-28", 0.315], ["2020-10-29", 0.315], ["2020-10-29", 0.315], ["2020-10-29", 0.315], ["2020-10-29", 0.315], ["2020-10-30", 0.315], ["2020-10-30", 0.285], ["2020-10-30", 0.285], ["2020-10-30", 0.285], ["2020-10-31", 0.285], ["2020-10-31", 0.285], ["2020-10-31", 0.285], ["2020-10-31", 0.285], ["2020-10-31", 0.285], ["2020-11-01", 0.285], ["2020-11-01", 0.285], ["2020-11-01", 0.285], ["2020-11-01", 0.285], ["2020-11-02", 0.315], ["2020-11-02", 0.355], ["2020-11-02", 0.39], ["2020-11-02", 0.39], ["2020-11-02", 0.41], ["2020-11-02", 0.46], ["2020-11-02", 0.46], ["2020-11-02", 0.46], ["2020-11-02", 0.5], ["2020-11-02", 0.5], ["2020-11-02", 0.5], ["2020-11-02", 0.5], ["2020-11-02", 0.525], ["2020-11-03", 0.5], ["2020-11-03", 0.5], ["2020-11-03", 0.525], ["2020-11-03", 0.5], ["2020-11-03", 0.5], ["2020-11-03", 0.5], ["2020-11-04", 0.51], ["2020-11-04", 0.51], ["2020-11-04", 0.51], ["2020-11-04", 0.51], ["2020-11-04", 0.51], ["2020-11-05", 0.51], ["2020-11-05", 0.52], ["2020-11-05", 0.52], ["2020-11-05", 0.535], ["2020-11-05", 0.535], ["2020-11-05", 0.575], ["2020-11-06", 0.55], ["2020-11-06", 0.55], ["2020-11-06", 0.6], ["2020-11-06", 0.55], ["2020-11-06", 0.55], ["2020-11-06", 0.6], ["2020-11-06", 0.6], ["2020-11-06", 0.615], ["2020-11-06", 0.615], ["2020-11-07", 0.64], ["2020-11-07", 0.64], ["2020-11-07", 0.64], ["2020-11-07", 0.675], ["2020-11-07", 0.735], ["2020-11-07", 0.735], ["2020-11-07", 0.77], ["2020-11-07", 0.785], ["2020-11-08", 0.785], ["2020-11-08", 0.785], ["2020-11-08", 0.785], ["2020-11-08", 0.785], ["2020-11-08", 0.785], ["2020-11-08", 0.785]] | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2021-04-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1909 |
<p>Alibaba founder Jack Ma made his first public appearance on 20 January 2021 after three months since an October 2020 event in Shanghai where he was critical of Chinese regulators (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/china-alibaba-jack-ma/alibabas-jack-ma-makes-first-public-appearance-in-three-months-idINKBN29P0CV" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/01/08/954046428/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-has-fallen-off-the-radar-here-are-some-clues-why" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/24/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-on-ant-group-ipo-pricing.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>). An early January report indicated that Ma wasn't missing, but rather "lying low" (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-is-laying-low-for-the-time-being-not-missing.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/jack-ma-missing-billionaire-video-alibaba-1558672" target="_blank">Newsweek</a>). For the purposes of this question, both Hong Kong and Macau are considered to be parts of the PRC.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-04-01 | Will Chinese businessman Jack Ma physically appear in public outside of the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 April 2021? | 2021-01-20 | [["2021-01-22", 0.3], ["2021-01-22", 0.15], ["2021-01-22", 0.03], ["2021-01-22", 0.015], ["2021-01-22", 0.03], ["2021-01-22", 0.065], ["2021-01-22", 0.05], ["2021-01-22", 0.04], ["2021-01-22", 0.05], ["2021-01-22", 0.075], ["2021-01-22", 0.05], ["2021-01-22", 0.075], ["2021-01-22", 0.1], ["2021-01-23", 0.075], ["2021-01-23", 0.05], ["2021-01-23", 0.045], ["2021-01-23", 0.05], ["2021-01-23", 0.06], ["2021-01-23", 0.07], ["2021-01-23", 0.06], ["2021-01-23", 0.07], ["2021-01-23", 0.085], ["2021-01-23", 0.1], ["2021-01-23", 0.1], ["2021-01-23", 0.1], ["2021-01-23", 0.1], ["2021-01-23", 0.1], ["2021-01-23", 0.1], ["2021-01-23", 0.1], ["2021-01-23", 0.1], ["2021-01-24", 0.1], ["2021-01-24", 0.085], ["2021-01-24", 0.07], ["2021-01-24", 0.085], ["2021-01-24", 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["https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-54245327", "https://www.bbc.com/news/business-55728338", "https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/what-jack-ma-said-after-resurfacing-in-video-2355154", "https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-56448688", "https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/alibaba-jack-ma-first-public-appearance-china-14000342", "https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2021/01/07/2003750081", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhong_Shanshan", "https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jan/23/the-strange-case-of-alibabas-jack-ma-and-his-three-month-vanishing-act", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-28/alibaba-to-face-investors-amid-crackdown-on-jack-ma-s-empire", "https://www.ft.com/content/784fb680-3e58-4c7a-a375-2f78fad52c64", "https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jan/20/chinese-billionaire-jack-ma-makes-first-public-appearance-in-months", "https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/25/asia/fan-bingbing-back-china/index.html", "https://www.aeaweb.org/research/send-down-movement-rural-education-china", "https://www.ndtv.com/topic/jack-ma", "https://time.com/5938323/jack-ma-golfing-china/", "https://www.nationalgeographic.com/culture/topics/reference/british-east-india-trading-company-most-powerful-business/", "https://www.ibtimes.sg/china-ccp-nationalize-jack-mas-alibaba-ant-group-54444", "https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/14/world/asia/china-ren-zhiqiang.html"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-04-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1843 |
<p>Nicolas Maduro remains in power despite continued international pressure and domestic instability (<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/25/leopoldo-lopez-flees-venezuela-vowing-to-continue-fighting-maduro-regime" target="_blank">Guardian</a>, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/9/maduro-hopes-to-resume-decent-dialogue-with-us-after-biden-win" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>, <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/venezuela-defend-start-dialogue-trump-biden-wins-1544542" target="_blank">Newsweek</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p><p></p><p><i>This question is a longer-term companion of <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1642-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-january-2021" target="_blank">#1642</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 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["2021-03-09", 0.01], ["2021-03-09", 0.01], ["2021-03-10", 0.01], ["2021-03-12", 0.01], ["2021-03-14", 0.01], ["2021-03-15", 0.005], ["2021-03-15", 0.0], ["2021-03-15", 0.0], ["2021-03-16", 0.0], ["2021-03-16", 0.0], ["2021-03-16", 0.0], ["2021-03-16", 0.0], ["2021-03-17", 0.0], ["2021-03-17", 0.0], ["2021-03-18", 0.0], ["2021-03-18", 0.0], ["2021-03-18", 0.0], ["2021-03-18", 0.0], ["2021-03-19", 0.0], ["2021-03-19", 0.0], ["2021-03-19", 0.0], ["2021-03-20", 0.0], ["2021-03-21", 0.0], ["2021-03-21", 0.0], ["2021-03-22", 0.0], ["2021-03-22", 0.0], ["2021-03-23", 0.0], ["2021-03-23", 0.0], ["2021-03-24", 0.0], ["2021-03-25", 0.0], ["2021-03-25", 0.0], ["2021-03-25", 0.0], ["2021-03-25", 0.0], ["2021-03-25", 0.0], ["2021-03-25", 0.0], ["2021-03-26", 0.0], ["2021-03-27", 0.0], ["2021-03-28", 0.0], ["2021-03-28", 0.0], ["2021-03-29", 0.0], ["2021-03-29", 0.0], ["2021-03-29", 0.0], ["2021-03-29", 0.0], ["2021-03-30", 0.0], ["2021-03-30", 0.0], ["2021-03-30", 0.0], ["2021-03-31", 0.0], ["2021-03-31", 0.0], ["2021-03-31", 0.0], ["2021-04-01", 0.0]] | ["https://www.state.gov/briefings/department-press-briefing-february-25-2021/#post-221634-VENEZUELA", "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Nicolas-Maduro", "https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/venezuela/#economy", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-52592824", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/25/leopoldo-lopez-flees-venezuela-vowing-to-continue-fighting-maduro-regime", "https://www.politico.eu/article/venezuela-expels-eu-ambassador-in-reaction-to-sanctions/", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/9/maduro-hopes-to-resume-decent-dialogue-with-us-after-biden-win", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/1/5/venezuelas-socialist-party-take-control-of-once-defiant-congress", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/13/world/americas/venezuela-juan-guaido.html", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/07/22/map-the-world-of-coups-since-1950/", "https://www.cfr.org/blog/top-conflicts%02watch-2021-economic-political-and-humanitarian-catastrophe-venezuela", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-36319877", "https://citadel.instructure.com/courses/9414/files/1216692?wrap=1", "https://www.state.gov/nicolas-maduro-moros-new-target/", "https://apnews.com/article/boycotts-venezuela-elections-caracas-b8641cba3354cf8acca765d0de7d3ca8", "https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/venezuela-s-maduro-claims-sweep-boycotted-election-n1250276", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-eu/eu-states-no-longer-recognise-guaido-as-venezuelas-interim-president-idUSKBN29U1A3", "https://www.newsweek.com/venezuela-defend-start-dialogue-trump-biden-wins-1544542", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-facebook-venezuela-exclusive-idUSKBN2BJ03Z", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-idUSKCN2AV2VI", "https://www.npr.org/2020/07/28/896261268/venezuelas-maduro-holds-firmly-to-power-and-squeezes-the-opposition", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-venezuela-idUSKBN2AY0IC", "https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-03-03/venezuelas-guaido-calls-for-opposition-input-into-new-electoral-body", "https://www.caracaschronicles.com/2021/02/02/biden-and-venezuela-sanctions-what-to%02expect/", "https://www.worldoil.com/news/2021/3/19/maduro-enlists-foreign-oil-companies-to-help-end-us-sanctions"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-09-14 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2088 |
<p>The NUG is a rival government established after the Myanmar Defense Forces staged a coup on 1 February 2021 (<a href="https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20210416-opponents-of-myanmar-s-junta-set-up-national-unity-government" target="_blank">France 24</a>, <a href="https://www.nugmyanmar.org/en/" target="_blank">NUG</a>). The 76th Session of the UN General Assembly is scheduled to open on 14 September 2021, but who will be recognized as the delegate(s) for Myanmar remains to be seen (<a href="https://ask.un.org/faq/14598" target="_blank">UN</a>, <a href="https://asiatimes.com/2021/07/why-the-west-wont-recognize-myanmars-nug/" target="_blank">Asia Times</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/28/asia/myanmar-diplomats-limbo-intl-hnk-dst/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://www.un.org/en/ga/about/ropga/credent.shtml" target="_blank">UN</a>). The question would close upon the UN General Assembly's recognition of any delegate(s) as representing Myanmar. Attendance alone would not count (e.g., <a href="https://apnews.com/article/latin-america-united-nations-us-news-ap-top-news-venezuela-eb111ac2ddb64156963a4849f933d76b" target="_blank">AP</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 13 September 2021</span>: For the purposes of this question, provisional recognition would count.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-10-04 | Before 2 October 2021, will the UN General Assembly recognize delegates from the National Unity Government (NUG) as representing Myanmar for the 76th General Assembly session? | 2021-07-30 | [["2021-07-30", 1.0], ["2021-07-30", 1.0], ["2021-07-30", 0.5], ["2021-07-30", 0.1], ["2021-07-30", 0.1], ["2021-07-31", 0.1], ["2021-07-31", 0.05], ["2021-07-31", 0.1], ["2021-07-31", 0.05], ["2021-07-31", 0.01], ["2021-07-31", 0.005], ["2021-07-31", 0.01], ["2021-07-31", 0.005], ["2021-08-01", 0.01], ["2021-08-01", 0.01], ["2021-08-01", 0.01], ["2021-08-01", 0.01], ["2021-08-01", 0.01], ["2021-08-01", 0.01], ["2021-08-01", 0.01], ["2021-08-01", 0.01], ["2021-08-01", 0.01], ["2021-08-02", 0.005], ["2021-08-02", 0.01], ["2021-08-02", 0.01], ["2021-08-02", 0.01], ["2021-08-02", 0.005], ["2021-08-02", 0.01], ["2021-08-02", 0.01], ["2021-08-02", 0.01], ["2021-08-02", 0.01], ["2021-08-03", 0.01], ["2021-08-03", 0.01], ["2021-08-03", 0.01], ["2021-08-03", 0.035], ["2021-08-03", 0.05], ["2021-08-03", 0.035], ["2021-08-04", 0.02], ["2021-08-04", 0.015], ["2021-08-05", 0.035], ["2021-08-05", 0.015], ["2021-08-05", 0.02], ["2021-08-05", 0.015], ["2021-08-05", 0.015], ["2021-08-06", 0.01], ["2021-08-06", 0.02], ["2021-08-06", 0.03], ["2021-08-06", 0.015], ["2021-08-07", 0.0], ["2021-08-07", 0.0], ["2021-08-09", 0.0], ["2021-08-09", 0.0], ["2021-08-10", 0.0], ["2021-08-11", 0.01], ["2021-08-11", 0.01], ["2021-08-12", 0.01], ["2021-08-12", 0.01], ["2021-08-12", 0.01], ["2021-08-13", 0.01], ["2021-08-14", 0.01], ["2021-08-15", 0.015], ["2021-08-15", 0.035], ["2021-08-16", 0.035], ["2021-08-20", 0.035], ["2021-08-21", 0.035], ["2021-08-21", 0.035], ["2021-08-22", 0.035], ["2021-08-22", 0.05], ["2021-08-23", 0.05], ["2021-08-23", 0.05], ["2021-08-23", 0.05], ["2021-08-24", 0.05], ["2021-08-24", 0.06], ["2021-08-24", 0.06], ["2021-08-24", 0.06], ["2021-08-24", 0.06], ["2021-08-25", 0.06], ["2021-08-25", 0.06], ["2021-08-26", 0.06], ["2021-08-27", 0.06], ["2021-08-27", 0.06], ["2021-08-28", 0.06], ["2021-08-28", 0.06], ["2021-08-28", 0.06], ["2021-08-29", 0.06], ["2021-08-29", 0.06], ["2021-08-30", 0.06], ["2021-08-30", 0.06], ["2021-08-31", 0.06], ["2021-09-01", 0.055], ["2021-09-01", 0.055], ["2021-09-02", 0.055], ["2021-09-02", 0.055], ["2021-09-02", 0.05], ["2021-09-03", 0.05], ["2021-09-03", 0.05], ["2021-09-04", 0.05], ["2021-09-05", 0.05], ["2021-09-07", 0.05], ["2021-09-07", 0.05], ["2021-09-07", 0.05], ["2021-09-07", 0.05], ["2021-09-08", 0.05], ["2021-09-09", 0.05], ["2021-09-09", 0.05], ["2021-09-10", 0.05], ["2021-09-11", 0.05], ["2021-09-11", 0.05], ["2021-09-11", 0.05], ["2021-09-12", 0.05], ["2021-09-12", 0.05], ["2021-09-13", 0.05], ["2021-09-13", 0.05], ["2021-09-13", 0.05], ["2021-09-13", 0.05], ["2021-09-14", 0.05], ["2021-09-14", 0.05], ["2021-09-14", 0.05], ["2021-09-14", 0.05]] | ["https://mizzima.com/article/ambassador-u-kyaw-moe-tun-speaks-mizzima", "https://twitter.com/kyawtun62907405/status/1441199471992336385", "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taliban-myanmar-junta-unlikely-be-let-into-un-now-diplomats-2021-12-01/", "https://www.irrawaddy.com/in-person/interview/international-pressure-essential-in-war-against-junta-myanmars-un-ambassador.html", "https://www.un.org/en/ga/76/meetings/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1336155", "https://www.wionews.com/world/myanmar-did-not-make-a-request-to-speak-unga-president-abdulla-shahid-clarifies-to-wion-416617", "https://www.ilsa.org/Jessup/Jessup12/Talmon_Who%20is%20a%20legitimate%20government%20in%20exile.pdf", "https://www.reuters.com/world/myanmar-will-not-address-world-leaders-un-afghanistan-will-2021-09-24/", "https://theconversation.com/two-governments-claim-to-run-myanmar-so-who-gets-the-countrys-seat-at-the-un-167885", "https://twitter.com/DrSasa22222/status/1438433948607004673?s=20", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-and-china-avert-potential-clash-in-u-n-over-myanmar-representation-11632234248", "https://www.un.org/en/about-us/about-un-membership", "https://www.myanmarmissionnewyork.org/links", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1274832", "https://www.myanmarmissionnewyork.org/permanent-representative", "https://apnews.com/article/united-nations-general-assembly-asia-afghanistan-voting-myanmar-33b3c02fe1d72b30a6890e73bab42fbd", "https://theconversation.com/the-conversations-factcheck-granted-accreditation-by-international-fact-checking-network-at-poynter-74363", "https://twitter.com/GJ_Open", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1335986", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1336261", "https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/12/1107262", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1908", "http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/alerts-archive/issue-24/en/", "https://edition.cnn.com/2021/09/27/world/unga-afghanistan-taliban-isaczai-intl/index.html"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2022-05-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2305 |
<p>The question will be suspended on 30 April 2022 and the outcome determined using the annual rate of change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) as first reported by Eurostat for "Euro area - 19 countries (from 2015)" (<a href="https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=prc_hicp_manr&lang=en" target="_blank">Eurostat</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-05-18 | Will the annual rate of inflation for the eurozone reach or exceed 7.0% in April 2022 (2022M04)? | 2022-03-09 | [["2022-03-15", 0.0], ["2022-03-15", 0.48], ["2022-03-15", 0.96], ["2022-03-15", 0.785], ["2022-03-15", 0.96], ["2022-03-15", 0.785], ["2022-03-15", 0.61], ["2022-03-15", 0.51], ["2022-03-15", 0.41], ["2022-03-15", 0.48], ["2022-03-15", 0.55], ["2022-03-15", 0.48], ["2022-03-15", 0.41], ["2022-03-15", 0.395], ["2022-03-15", 0.41], ["2022-03-15", 0.395], ["2022-03-15", 0.38], ["2022-03-16", 0.395], ["2022-03-16", 0.41], ["2022-03-16", 0.395], ["2022-03-16", 0.41], ["2022-03-16", 0.395], ["2022-03-16", 0.41], ["2022-03-16", 0.395], ["2022-03-16", 0.38], ["2022-03-16", 0.395], ["2022-03-16", 0.41], ["2022-03-16", 0.41], ["2022-03-16", 0.41], ["2022-03-16", 0.455], ["2022-03-16", 0.41], ["2022-03-16", 0.455], ["2022-03-16", 0.5], ["2022-03-16", 0.455], ["2022-03-16", 0.41], ["2022-03-16", 0.395], ["2022-03-16", 0.41], ["2022-03-16", 0.41], ["2022-03-16", 0.41], ["2022-03-16", 0.405], ["2022-03-16", 0.4], ["2022-03-16", 0.405], ["2022-03-16", 0.4], ["2022-03-16", 0.4], ["2022-03-16", 0.4], ["2022-03-17", 0.4], ["2022-03-17", 0.4], ["2022-03-17", 0.4], ["2022-03-17", 0.4], ["2022-03-17", 0.425], ["2022-03-17", 0.425], ["2022-03-17", 0.425], ["2022-03-17", 0.45], ["2022-03-17", 0.425], ["2022-03-17", 0.43], ["2022-03-17", 0.415], ["2022-03-17", 0.4], ["2022-03-17", 0.43], ["2022-03-17", 0.43], ["2022-03-17", 0.44], ["2022-03-17", 0.44], ["2022-03-17", 0.45], ["2022-03-17", 0.45], ["2022-03-17", 0.45], ["2022-03-17", 0.45], ["2022-03-17", 0.45], ["2022-03-17", 0.45], ["2022-03-17", 0.45], ["2022-03-18", 0.45], ["2022-03-18", 0.45], ["2022-03-18", 0.45], ["2022-03-18", 0.45], ["2022-03-18", 0.45], ["2022-03-18", 0.45], ["2022-03-18", 0.455], ["2022-03-18", 0.45], ["2022-03-18", 0.45], ["2022-03-18", 0.45], ["2022-03-18", 0.455], ["2022-03-18", 0.455], ["2022-03-18", 0.46], ["2022-03-18", 0.46], ["2022-03-18", 0.465], ["2022-03-18", 0.46], ["2022-03-19", 0.47], ["2022-03-19", 0.5], ["2022-03-19", 0.51], ["2022-03-19", 0.51], ["2022-03-19", 0.535], ["2022-03-19", 0.6], ["2022-03-19", 0.6], ["2022-03-19", 0.6], ["2022-03-19", 0.6], ["2022-03-20", 0.6], ["2022-03-20", 0.6], ["2022-03-20", 0.6], ["2022-03-20", 0.6], ["2022-03-20", 0.675], ["2022-03-20", 0.68], ["2022-03-20", 0.69], ["2022-03-20", 0.7], ["2022-03-20", 0.69], ["2022-03-20", 0.695], ["2022-03-21", 0.695], ["2022-03-21", 0.69], ["2022-03-21", 0.7], ["2022-03-21", 0.7], ["2022-03-21", 0.7], ["2022-03-21", 0.7], ["2022-03-21", 0.7], ["2022-03-21", 0.7], ["2022-03-21", 0.73], ["2022-03-21", 0.74], ["2022-03-21", 0.74], ["2022-03-21", 0.76], ["2022-03-21", 0.77], ["2022-03-21", 0.77], ["2022-03-21", 0.775], ["2022-03-22", 0.77], ["2022-03-22", 0.76], ["2022-03-22", 0.76], ["2022-03-22", 0.76], ["2022-03-22", 0.75], ["2022-03-22", 0.75], ["2022-03-22", 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0.75], ["2022-03-26", 0.75], ["2022-03-27", 0.75], ["2022-03-27", 0.75], ["2022-03-27", 0.75], ["2022-03-28", 0.75], ["2022-03-29", 0.75], ["2022-03-29", 0.75], ["2022-03-29", 0.75], ["2022-03-29", 0.75], ["2022-03-29", 0.75], ["2022-03-29", 0.75], ["2022-03-30", 0.75], ["2022-03-30", 0.75], ["2022-03-30", 0.75], ["2022-03-30", 0.75], ["2022-03-30", 0.75], ["2022-03-30", 0.75], ["2022-03-30", 0.75], ["2022-03-30", 0.75], ["2022-03-30", 0.74], ["2022-03-30", 0.74], ["2022-03-30", 0.745], ["2022-03-31", 0.735], ["2022-03-31", 0.735], ["2022-03-31", 0.735], ["2022-03-31", 0.735], ["2022-03-31", 0.735], ["2022-03-31", 0.745], ["2022-03-31", 0.735], ["2022-03-31", 0.735], ["2022-03-31", 0.735], ["2022-03-31", 0.74], ["2022-04-01", 0.75], ["2022-04-01", 0.75], ["2022-04-01", 0.75], ["2022-04-01", 0.75], ["2022-04-01", 0.75], ["2022-04-01", 0.75], ["2022-04-01", 0.75], ["2022-04-01", 0.75], ["2022-04-01", 0.75], ["2022-04-01", 0.75], ["2022-04-01", 0.765], ["2022-04-01", 0.78], ["2022-04-01", 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["2022-04-14", 1.0], ["2022-04-14", 1.0], ["2022-04-14", 1.0], ["2022-04-14", 1.0], ["2022-04-14", 1.0], ["2022-04-15", 1.0], ["2022-04-15", 1.0], ["2022-04-15", 1.0], ["2022-04-15", 1.0], ["2022-04-15", 1.0], ["2022-04-16", 1.0], ["2022-04-16", 1.0], ["2022-04-16", 1.0], ["2022-04-16", 1.0], ["2022-04-16", 1.0], ["2022-04-16", 1.0], ["2022-04-16", 1.0], ["2022-04-17", 1.0], ["2022-04-17", 1.0], ["2022-04-17", 1.0], ["2022-04-18", 1.0], ["2022-04-18", 1.0], ["2022-04-18", 1.0], ["2022-04-18", 1.0], ["2022-04-18", 1.0], ["2022-04-18", 1.0], ["2022-04-18", 1.0], ["2022-04-18", 1.0], ["2022-04-18", 1.0], ["2022-04-19", 1.0], ["2022-04-19", 1.0], ["2022-04-19", 1.0], ["2022-04-19", 1.0], ["2022-04-19", 1.0], ["2022-04-19", 1.0], ["2022-04-19", 1.0], ["2022-04-19", 1.0], ["2022-04-19", 1.0], ["2022-04-19", 1.0], ["2022-04-19", 1.0], ["2022-04-20", 1.0], ["2022-04-20", 1.0], ["2022-04-20", 1.0], ["2022-04-21", 1.0], ["2022-04-21", 1.0], ["2022-04-21", 1.0], ["2022-04-21", 1.0], ["2022-04-21", 1.0], ["2022-04-22", 1.0], ["2022-04-22", 1.0], ["2022-04-22", 1.0], ["2022-04-22", 1.0], ["2022-04-22", 1.0], ["2022-04-22", 1.0], ["2022-04-22", 1.0], ["2022-04-23", 1.0], ["2022-04-23", 1.0], ["2022-04-23", 1.0], ["2022-04-23", 1.0], ["2022-04-24", 1.0], ["2022-04-24", 1.0], ["2022-04-24", 1.0], ["2022-04-25", 1.0], ["2022-04-25", 1.0], ["2022-04-25", 1.0], ["2022-04-25", 1.0], ["2022-04-25", 1.0], ["2022-04-25", 1.0], ["2022-04-26", 1.0], ["2022-04-26", 1.0], ["2022-04-26", 1.0], ["2022-04-26", 1.0], ["2022-04-26", 1.0], ["2022-04-26", 1.0], ["2022-04-26", 1.0], ["2022-04-26", 1.0], ["2022-04-26", 1.0], ["2022-04-26", 1.0], ["2022-04-26", 1.0], ["2022-04-26", 1.0], ["2022-04-27", 1.0], ["2022-04-27", 1.0], ["2022-04-27", 1.0], ["2022-04-27", 1.0], ["2022-04-27", 1.0], ["2022-04-27", 1.0], ["2022-04-27", 1.0], ["2022-04-27", 1.0], ["2022-04-28", 1.0], ["2022-04-28", 1.0], ["2022-04-28", 1.0], ["2022-04-28", 1.0], ["2022-04-28", 1.0], ["2022-04-28", 1.0], ["2022-04-28", 1.0], ["2022-04-28", 1.0], ["2022-04-28", 1.0], ["2022-04-29", 1.0], ["2022-04-29", 1.0], ["2022-04-29", 1.0], ["2022-04-29", 1.0], ["2022-04-29", 1.0], ["2022-04-30", 1.0], ["2022-04-30", 1.0], ["2022-05-01", 1.0]] | ["https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/bookmark/45736c4e-9103-4caf-bd69-b4e90efb62bc?lang=en", "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Inflation_in_the_euro_area", "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_manr/default/table?lang=en", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1417438", "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/edn-20220210-2", "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/bookmark/8d84eadd-a8dc-46fc-ab3f-8926d774231d?lang=en", "https://www.inflation.eu/en/inflation-rates/europe/historic-inflation/hicp-inflation-europe.aspx", "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/14358239/2-17032022-AP-EN.pdf/7bd82074-c752-a9bf-dfce-8e9b4eaf666e?t=1647426403308", "https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5253318&span=1", "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/bookmark/ae0dbcd0-850d-4c6a-bb3e-c7aacef57e5c?lang=en", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-inflation-reach-over-7-march-state-data-suggest-2022-03-30/", "https://www.politico.eu/article/germanys-imported-energy-prices-more-than-doubled-in-february/", "https://www.thelocal.de/20220323/german-consumer-prices-set-to-rise-steeply-amid-war-in-ukraine/", "https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/inflation-cpi", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CP0000EZ19M086NEST", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1418271", "https://www.thestreet.com/markets/stocks-slip-lower-as-markets-re-set-after-hawkish-fed-rate-hike", "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/german-retailer-aldi-nord-to-raise-prices-by-20-50-on-monday/2554218", "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/14083883/2-07012022-AP-EN.pdf/49039c42-31ea-3513-8307-eece31d6b25a", "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/272892/10984304/HICP-release-schedule.pdf/", "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=HICP_methodology", "https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/TG*1", "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/german-gas-power-prices-households-new-highs-2022-03-16/", "https://www.thelocal.de/20220401/german-consumers-to-be-hit-by-further-price-hikes-in-supermarkets/", "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/projections/html/ecb.projections202203_ecbstaff~44f998dfd7.en.html"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2021-11-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2062 |
<p>The EV charging station network in New Zealand is expanding (<a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/motoring/evs/124892166/new-zealands-ev-charging-network-continues-to-expand" target="_blank">Stuff</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by Waka Kotahi, New Zealand's transport agency (<a href="https://www.journeys.nzta.govt.nz/ev-chargers" target="_blank">Waka Kotahi</a>). The site includes a live map and table of qualifying charging stations. Data on the "Table view" will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00 pm ET on 1 November 2021. For more on "qualifying" stations, see "Minimum requirements for the nationwide network" (<a href="https://nzta.govt.nz/planning-and-investment/planning/transport-planning/planning-for-electric-vehicles/national-guidance-for-public-electric-vehicle-charging-infrastructure/enabling-a-nationwide-network-of-public-charging-infrastructure/" target="_blank">Waka Kotahi</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2021-11-01 | As of 1 November 2021, will Waka Kotahi list 321 or more qualifying electrical vehicle (EV) charging stations as available in New Zealand? | 2021-07-02 | [["2021-07-02", 0.0], ["2021-07-02", 0.45], ["2021-07-02", 0.78], ["2021-07-03", 0.69], ["2021-07-03", 0.7], ["2021-07-03", 0.7], ["2021-07-04", 0.73], ["2021-07-04", 0.72], ["2021-07-04", 0.735], ["2021-07-05", 0.75], ["2021-07-05", 0.75], ["2021-07-05", 0.75], ["2021-07-05", 0.75], ["2021-07-05", 0.75], ["2021-07-05", 0.75], ["2021-07-05", 0.735], ["2021-07-05", 0.735], ["2021-07-06", 0.71], ["2021-07-06", 0.735], ["2021-07-06", 0.735], ["2021-07-06", 0.72], ["2021-07-07", 0.72], ["2021-07-08", 0.72], ["2021-07-08", 0.635], ["2021-07-09", 0.61], ["2021-07-09", 0.61], ["2021-07-09", 0.61], ["2021-07-11", 0.57], ["2021-07-11", 0.57], ["2021-07-11", 0.57], ["2021-07-12", 0.57], ["2021-07-13", 0.57], ["2021-07-13", 0.57], ["2021-07-13", 0.57], ["2021-07-13", 0.57], ["2021-07-15", 0.67], ["2021-07-15", 0.435], ["2021-07-15", 0.575], ["2021-07-16", 0.575], ["2021-07-16", 0.575], ["2021-07-17", 0.585], ["2021-07-17", 0.585], ["2021-07-18", 0.585], ["2021-07-19", 0.58], ["2021-07-20", 0.58], ["2021-07-20", 0.58], ["2021-07-22", 0.58], ["2021-07-22", 0.555], ["2021-07-23", 0.555], ["2021-07-25", 0.555], ["2021-07-25", 0.555], ["2021-07-25", 0.555], ["2021-07-25", 0.51], ["2021-07-26", 0.51], ["2021-07-26", 0.6], ["2021-07-27", 0.6], ["2021-07-27", 0.64], ["2021-07-28", 0.64], ["2021-07-28", 0.64], ["2021-07-28", 0.6], ["2021-07-29", 0.6], ["2021-07-29", 0.555], ["2021-07-29", 0.555], ["2021-07-29", 0.375], ["2021-07-29", 0.555], ["2021-07-29", 0.51], ["2021-07-30", 0.51], ["2021-07-31", 0.51], ["2021-08-01", 0.51], ["2021-08-02", 0.25], ["2021-08-02", 0.225], ["2021-08-03", 0.225], ["2021-08-03", 0.225], ["2021-08-04", 0.19], ["2021-08-04", 0.19], ["2021-08-05", 0.165], ["2021-08-05", 0.19], ["2021-08-05", 0.19], ["2021-08-06", 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0.015], ["2021-10-31", 0.01], ["2021-10-31", 0.01], ["2021-10-31", 0.01], ["2021-10-31", 0.01], ["2021-10-31", 0.01], ["2021-11-01", 0.01]] | ["https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2109/S00055/major-investment-accelerates-growth-of-chargenet.htm", "https://www.wel.co.nz/innovation/electric-vehicles/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1341651", "https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/125248940/eighty-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-on-the-way-for-hutt-and-wellington-city?rm=a", "https://www.thewarehousegroup.co.nz/news-updates/warehouse-group/expanding-our-ev-charging-stations", "https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/125378809/are-evs-ready-for-our-roads-and-vice-versa", "https://i.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/wellington/125740086/wellington-to-get-30-more-electric-vehicle-fast-chargers", "https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2104/S00259/the-warehouse-group-rolls-out-expansion-of-its-national-ev-charging-station-network.htm", "https://i.stuff.co.nz/motoring/evs/125775619/chargenet-to-add-three-more-300kw-hypercharger-sites", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1340932", "https://i.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/125248940/eighty-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-on-the-way-for-hutt-and-wellington-city?rm=a", "https://charge.net.nz/our-network/", "https://www.driven.co.nz/news/three-more-hyper-rapid-ev-chargers-to-be-installed-across-new-zealand/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1321483", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1306372", "https://www.journeys.nzta.govt.nz/ev-chargers", "https://nzta.govt.nz/planning-and-investment/planning/transport-planning/planning-for-electric-vehicles/national-guidance-for-public-electric-vehicle-charging-infrastructure/enabling-a-nationwide-network-of-public-charging-infrastructure/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1335291", "https://genless.govt.nz/running-a-business/co-funding-and-support/low-emission-vehicles-contestable-fund/summaries-of-approved-projects/", "https://charge.net.nz/map/", "https://i.stuff.co.nz/motoring/evs/125826511/tesla-will-let-everyone-use-its-superchargers"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2020-12-14 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1826 |
<p>Following this year’s presidential election, the Trump campaign has filed suit over the treatment of mail-in ballots for several states (<a href="https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-seeks-voting-stop-25762f69b27dfbccc4fd8077fb5fdc91" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/524506-trump-campaign-sues-to-halt-vote-counting-in-michigan" target="_blank">The Hill</a>). Presidential electors are scheduled to meet and vote in their respective states on 14 December 2020 (<a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11641" target="_blank">Congressional Research Service</a>).</p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2020-12-14 | Before 14 December 2020, will the U.S. Supreme Court hear oral arguments in a case related to any state’s 2020 presidential election results? | 2020-11-06 | [["2020-11-06", 0.995], ["2020-11-06", 1.0], ["2020-11-06", 0.995], ["2020-11-06", 1.0], ["2020-11-06", 1.0], ["2020-11-06", 0.99], ["2020-11-06", 0.945], ["2020-11-06", 0.825], ["2020-11-06", 0.75], ["2020-11-06", 0.425], 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"https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/08/politics/supreme-court-pennsylvania-trump-biden/index.html", "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/supreme-court-rejects-texas-effort-overturn-election-fatal-blow-trump-n1250883", "https://floridianpress.com/2020/12/trump-team-files-emergency-filings-of-voter-fraud-with-supreme-court/", "https://twitter.com/Raiklin/status/1336319381547089922", "https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/10/politics/trump-texas-supreme-court-election/index.html", "https://morningconsult.com/form/tracking-voter-trust-in-elections/", "https://twitter.com/AmyEGardner/status/1336836103454797824", "https://fr.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN28K2NU", "https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/529476-fewer-than-one-quarter-of-republicans-trust-election-results-poll", "https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/12/12/antrim-county-judge-release-election-results-dominion/6520916002/", "https://azcapitoltimes.com/news/2020/12/14/ward-takes-election-challenge-to-u-s-supreme-court/", "https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/09/states-tell-supreme-court-they-support-texas-bid-to-reverse-biden-win.html", "https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/more-republicans-distrust-this-years-election-results-than-democrats-after-2016/", "https://text.npr.org/939805103", "https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/10/opinions/trump-war-on-democracy-ghitis/index.html", "https://www.scotusblog.com/2020/12/opinion-dont-just-deny-texas-original-action-decimate-it/", "https://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/12/10/texas-lawsuit-jake-tapper-reaction-lead-vpx.cnn", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty_Years%27_War", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_scorehttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score", "https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/22/22O155/163346/20201210125506698_TX%2520v%2520PA%2520-%2520Amicus.PDF&ved=2ahUKEwiJntq0iMTtAhUMV80KHe1aDZQQFjAVegQINhAB&usg=AOvVaw2E4_YZOT61RJY3ijCXPd_K", "https://www.scotusblog.com/2020/12/wednesday-round-up-553/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-06-28 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1823 |
<p>Apple's iPhone net sales have fluctuated over the years, and as of October 2020 Apple has begun to sell the new iPhone 12 and its variants (<a href="https://www.apple.com/iphone/" target="_blank">Apple</a>). Industry analysts speculate whether 5G capability will bolster declining iPhone sales or if the pandemic's global impact on supply chains and expendable income will hinder iPhone sales (<a href="https://9to5mac.com/2019/11/25/iphone-12-5g-demand/" target="_blank">9 to 5 Mac</a>, <a href="https://news.abs-cbn.com/business/10/14/20/in-china-apples-5g-iphone-12-sparks-fever-pitch-but-divided-reaction" target="_blank">ABS-CBN</a>). Apple Inc.'s Fiscal Year (FY) annual report for 2021 is expected by early November 2021 at https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/default.aspx under the "Annual Reports on Form 10-K" section. For FY 2020, Apple reported net iPhone sales of $137.781 billion, compared to $142.381 billion in FY 2019 (<a href="https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000320193/7b5717ca-6222-48e6-801c-9ea28feeef86.pdf" target="_blank">Apple 10-K (2020)</a>, see page 21).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-07-30 | Will Apple's iPhone net sales be higher in FY 2021 than FY 2019? | 2020-10-30 | [["2020-10-30", 0.0], ["2020-10-30", 0.355], ["2020-10-30", 0.3], ["2020-10-30", 0.155], ["2020-10-30", 0.3], ["2020-10-30", 0.3], ["2020-10-30", 0.45], ["2020-10-30", 0.6], ["2020-10-30", 0.55], ["2020-10-30", 0.5], ["2020-10-30", 0.55], ["2020-10-31", 0.6], ["2020-10-31", 0.6], ["2020-10-31", 0.625], ["2020-10-31", 0.625], ["2020-10-31", 0.625], ["2020-10-31", 0.66], ["2020-10-31", 0.66], ["2020-10-31", 0.66], ["2020-10-31", 0.67], ["2020-10-31", 0.67], ["2020-10-31", 0.67], ["2020-10-31", 0.685], ["2020-10-31", 0.66], ["2020-10-31", 0.685], ["2020-10-31", 0.685], ["2020-10-31", 0.66], ["2020-10-31", 0.66], ["2020-10-31", 0.685], ["2020-11-01", 0.7], ["2020-11-01", 0.7], ["2020-11-01", 0.685], ["2020-11-01", 0.7], ["2020-11-01", 0.7], ["2020-11-01", 0.72], ["2020-11-01", 0.74], ["2020-11-01", 0.75], ["2020-11-01", 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"https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-earnings-q1-2021-revenue-iphone-eps-profit-analysis-2021-1", "https://www.reuters.com/article/apple-production-int-idUSKBN28P0ES", "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000320193/000032019319000066/a10-qq220193302019.htm", "https://internationalbanker.com/brokerage/apple-posts-record-quarterly-revenues-as-iphone-sales-surge/", "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/28/apple-aapl-earnings-q2-2021.html", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-apple-results-preview/wall-street-expects-near-record-iphone-sales-despite-delay-shut-apple-stores-idUSKBN29W1AG", "https://news.sky.com/story/record-iphone-sales-for-apple-as-quarterly-revenues-rise-to-111bn-12200839"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2022-06-02 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2148 |
<p>The Boards of Trustees for Medicare (also Boards) report annually to the Congress on the financial operations and actuarial status of the program (<a href="https://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Statistics-Trends-and-Reports/ReportsTrustFunds" target="_blank">Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services</a>). The board of trustees is expected to issue its 2022 report in the spring or summer of 2022. In its 2021 report, the board projected the year of asset depletion of the Hospital Insurance trust fund to be 2025 (<a href="https://www.cms.gov/files/document/2021-medicare-trustees-report.pdf" target="_blank">Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services - 2021 Trustee Report</a>, see page 6 in the report).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-06-06 | In its 2022 report, will the Board of Trustees for Medicare project the year of asset depletion of the Hospital Insurance trust fund ("HI," aka Medicare Part A) to be 2025 or before? | 2021-10-01 | [["2021-10-01", 1.0], ["2021-10-01", 0.8], ["2021-10-02", 1.0], ["2021-10-03", 1.0], ["2021-10-03", 1.0], ["2021-10-03", 0.9], ["2021-10-03", 0.8], ["2021-10-06", 0.825], ["2021-10-07", 0.8], ["2021-10-07", 0.825], ["2021-10-07", 0.825], ["2021-10-07", 0.875], ["2021-10-07", 0.85], ["2021-10-15", 0.85], ["2021-10-18", 0.85], ["2021-10-25", 0.85], ["2021-10-29", 0.85], ["2021-11-11", 0.875], ["2021-11-14", 0.88], ["2021-11-19", 0.88], ["2021-11-30", 0.9], ["2021-12-01", 0.875], ["2021-12-14", 0.875], ["2021-12-21", 0.875], ["2021-12-29", 0.815], ["2022-01-01", 0.8], ["2022-01-01", 0.78], ["2022-01-02", 0.78], ["2022-01-02", 0.765], ["2022-01-03", 0.765], ["2022-01-04", 0.76], ["2022-01-04", 0.755], ["2022-02-14", 0.775], ["2022-02-15", 0.78], ["2022-03-25", 0.78], ["2022-03-29", 0.78], ["2022-04-04", 0.78], ["2022-06-02", 0.78]] | ["https://www.cms.gov/files/document/2022-medicare-trustees-report.pdf"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-06-27 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2539 |
<p>In February 2022, the NC Supreme Court struck down congressional district maps approved by the state General Assembly as "illegal partisan gerrymanders" (<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/04/north-carolina-congressional-map-struck-down-00005974" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000017e-c71d-de19-a97e-e7bd64c60000" target="_blank">NC Supreme Court Decision</a>). NC House Speaker Tim Moore appealed, asserting that the federal constitution vests the legislature with the sole authority to regulate federal elections (<a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2022/21-1271" target="_blank">Oyez</a>, <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/moore-v-harper-2/" target="_blank">SCOTUSblog</a>). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2022 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-06-27 | In Moore v. Harper, will the Supreme Court rule that the North Carolina courts did not have the legal authority to strike down the NC General Assembly's congressional districting maps? | 2022-09-02 | [["2022-09-02", 0.09], ["2022-09-02", 0.23], ["2022-09-02", 0.32], ["2022-09-02", 0.3025], ["2022-09-03", 0.322], ["2022-09-03", 0.2683], ["2022-09-03", 0.2667], ["2022-09-03", 0.3186], ["2022-09-03", 0.3475], ["2022-09-03", 0.3867], ["2022-09-04", 0.448], ["2022-09-04", 0.45], ["2022-09-04", 0.4727], ["2022-09-05", 0.465], ["2022-09-05", 0.4331], ["2022-09-05", 0.4831], ["2022-09-05", 0.4831], ["2022-09-05", 0.4879], ["2022-09-05", 0.5257], ["2022-09-06", 0.663], ["2022-09-06", 0.673], ["2022-09-06", 0.678], ["2022-09-06", 0.674], ["2022-09-06", 0.69], ["2022-09-06", 0.6909], ["2022-09-06", 0.7045], ["2022-09-06", 0.7191], ["2022-09-06", 0.6758], ["2022-09-06", 0.6308], ["2022-09-07", 0.6571], ["2022-09-08", 0.652], ["2022-09-09", 0.645], ["2022-09-09", 0.667], ["2022-09-10", 0.589], ["2022-09-12", 0.59], ["2022-09-12", 0.57], ["2022-09-12", 0.563], ["2022-09-13", 0.556], ["2022-09-13", 0.566], ["2022-09-14", 0.571], ["2022-09-15", 0.586], ["2022-09-15", 0.587], ["2022-09-18", 0.539], ["2022-09-20", 0.559], ["2022-09-20", 0.579], ["2022-09-20", 0.558], ["2022-09-22", 0.558], ["2022-09-22", 0.528], ["2022-09-23", 0.529], ["2022-09-26", 0.454], ["2022-09-26", 0.448], ["2022-09-30", 0.448], ["2022-09-30", 0.393], ["2022-09-30", 0.4209], ["2022-10-02", 0.4727], ["2022-10-02", 0.4136], ["2022-10-07", 0.4073], ["2022-10-07", 0.4358], ["2022-10-07", 0.4692], ["2022-10-08", 0.4275], ["2022-10-09", 0.4325], ["2022-10-12", 0.4333], ["2022-10-18", 0.4142], ["2022-10-21", 0.4683], ["2022-10-21", 0.4683], ["2022-10-22", 0.4675], ["2022-10-22", 0.4692], ["2022-10-25", 0.4692], ["2022-10-26", 0.4817], ["2022-10-31", 0.48], ["2022-11-01", 0.5154], ["2022-11-04", 0.4846], ["2022-11-06", 0.4846], ["2022-11-09", 0.45], ["2022-11-10", 0.4677], ["2022-11-10", 0.4623], ["2022-11-11", 0.4615], ["2022-11-14", 0.46], ["2022-11-14", 0.46], ["2022-11-16", 0.4608], ["2022-11-16", 0.4646], ["2022-11-17", 0.4369], ["2022-11-18", 0.4354], ["2022-11-19", 0.4393], ["2022-11-19", 0.4179], ["2022-11-20", 0.3964], ["2022-11-23", 0.3679], ["2022-11-23", 0.3686], ["2022-11-23", 0.3679], ["2022-11-24", 0.3729], ["2022-11-24", 0.3764], ["2022-11-27", 0.3786], ["2022-11-29", 0.37], ["2022-11-29", 0.3879], ["2022-11-30", 0.3821], ["2022-11-30", 0.4], ["2022-12-02", 0.3914], ["2022-12-02", 0.3879], ["2022-12-05", 0.3664], ["2022-12-07", 0.37], ["2022-12-07", 0.34], ["2022-12-07", 0.3364], ["2022-12-08", 0.3329], ["2022-12-08", 0.3229], ["2022-12-08", 0.3264], ["2022-12-08", 0.3293], ["2022-12-08", 0.3271], ["2022-12-08", 0.3164], ["2022-12-08", 0.2886], ["2022-12-09", 0.285], ["2022-12-09", 0.2814], ["2022-12-10", 0.2729], ["2022-12-10", 0.2536], ["2022-12-10", 0.2536], ["2022-12-10", 0.2586], ["2022-12-11", 0.2657], ["2022-12-11", 0.2764], ["2022-12-11", 0.2707], ["2022-12-11", 0.2921], ["2022-12-12", 0.2936], ["2022-12-13", 0.2864], ["2022-12-14", 0.2764], ["2022-12-16", 0.2771], ["2022-12-17", 0.2786], ["2022-12-19", 0.28], ["2022-12-22", 0.2829], ["2022-12-23", 0.2829], ["2022-12-24", 0.2821], ["2022-12-26", 0.2814], ["2022-12-27", 0.2627], ["2022-12-29", 0.2893], ["2022-12-31", 0.2827], ["2023-01-02", 0.28], ["2023-01-05", 0.28], ["2023-01-05", 0.2793], ["2023-01-11", 0.2793], ["2023-01-12", 0.2793], ["2023-01-12", 0.2787], ["2023-01-13", 0.2787], ["2023-01-14", 0.2787], ["2023-01-17", 0.2793], ["2023-01-17", 0.278], ["2023-01-26", 0.278], ["2023-01-26", 0.2767], ["2023-01-29", 0.2753], ["2023-02-05", 0.2753], ["2023-02-06", 0.2681], ["2023-02-06", 0.2663], ["2023-02-06", 0.2638], ["2023-02-08", 0.2638], ["2023-02-11", 0.2638], ["2023-02-13", 0.2638], ["2023-02-14", 0.2613], ["2023-02-23", 0.2319], ["2023-02-23", 0.1906], ["2023-02-25", 0.1906], ["2023-02-26", 0.1875], ["2023-02-28", 0.185], ["2023-03-02", 0.1775], ["2023-03-02", 0.1713], ["2023-03-03", 0.1681], ["2023-03-03", 0.1669], ["2023-03-04", 0.165], ["2023-03-16", 0.1569], ["2023-04-08", 0.1869], ["2023-04-10", 0.1894], ["2023-04-10", 0.1913], ["2023-04-11", 0.1919], ["2023-04-15", 0.1906], ["2023-04-19", 0.2], ["2023-04-26", 0.2], ["2023-04-28", 0.1981], ["2023-04-29", 0.1931], ["2023-04-29", 0.16], ["2023-05-12", 0.1475], ["2023-05-14", 0.1475], ["2023-05-15", 0.1475], ["2023-05-16", 0.1469], ["2023-05-17", 0.1475], ["2023-05-20", 0.1456], ["2023-05-21", 0.1469], ["2023-05-27", 0.1853], ["2023-06-03", 0.1806], ["2023-06-14", 0.1806], ["2023-06-14", 0.2012], ["2023-06-16", 0.2141], ["2023-06-18", 0.2053], ["2023-06-19", 0.2029], ["2023-06-19", 0.2035], ["2023-06-25", 0.2241], ["2023-06-25", 0.2253], ["2023-06-25", 0.2376], ["2023-06-27", 0.2318], ["2023-06-27", 0.2318]] | ["https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/12/supreme-court-elections-legislature-trump-north-carolina.html", "https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3978137-nc-supreme-court-overrules-decision-that-struck-down-voting-maps/", "https://electionlawblog.org/?p=133411", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/03/02/supreme-court-north-carolina-election-gerrymandering/", "https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/moore-v-harper-explained", "https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/22pdf/21-1271_3f14.pdf", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/12/01/gop-argument-redistricting-backfire/", "https://electionlawblog.org/?p=135205", "https://www.supremecourt.gov/docket/docketfiles/html/public/21-1271.html", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/appeals-court-strikes-down-north-carolinas-voter-id-law/2016/07/29/810b5844-4f72-11e6-aa14-e0c1087f7583_story.html?utm_term=.2cffa04a02eb", "https://electionlawblog.org/?p=136760", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/12/07/election-oversight-supreme-court-north-carolina/", "https://www.democracydocket.com/opinion/headed-toward-a-middle-ground-todays-argument-in-moore-v-harper/?emci=b972ef48-7176-ed11-819c-000d3a9eb474&emdi=5daebaf9-7376-ed11-819c-000d3a9eb474&ceid=12663159", "https://mobile.twitter.com/lawrencehurley/status/1631400558153158656", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/04/28/north-carolina-courts-redistricting-voter-id/", "https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/21pdf/21a455_5if6.pdf#page=3", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/07/us/supreme-court-federal-elections.html", "https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/risks-ahead-scotus-independent-state-legislature-theory-case", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/05/us/north-carolina-supreme-court-voting-rights.html", "https://samotsvety.org/blog/2023/02/26/moore-v-harper/", "https://www.ncleg.gov/EnactedLegislation/Statutes/PDF/BySection/Chapter_120/GS_120-2.4.pdf", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/26/us/politics/supreme-court-state-legislatures-elections.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20220926&instance_id=72967&nl=the-morning&regi_id=188633544&segment_id=108141&te=1&user_I%27d=4f953d5937d55c99469418f350cd12f2", "http://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/21/21-1271/237155/20220906161712850_Moore%20v%20Harper%20Amicus%20Sept%206_FINAL_Filed.pdf", "https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/audio/2022/21-1271", "https://www.supremecourt.gov/orders/courtorders/030223zr_k536.pdf"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-04-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2667 |
<p>Investments by US venture capital firms in crypto and blockchain technology peaked in the first quarter of 2022 at over $6 billion, but the pace of investment has fallen considerably since (<a href="https://nonrival.substack.com/p/will-vcs-give-up-on-crypto" target="_blank">Nonrival</a>, see first chart). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 if still open and the outcome determined using PitchBook data as reported by Nonrival (<a href="https://pitchbook.com/" target="_blank">PitchBook</a>, <a href="https://nonrival.substack.com/" target="_blank">Nonrival - Substack</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><a href="https://nonrival.substack.com/)." target="_blank"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span></a><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-05-23 | Will US venture capital (VC) investment in cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology exceed $2 billion in either the fourth quarter of 2022 or first quarter of 2023? | 2022-12-09 | [["2022-12-09", 0.0], ["2022-12-09", 0.0], ["2022-12-09", 0.05], ["2022-12-09", 0.0333], ["2022-12-09", 0.0375], ["2022-12-10", 0.078], ["2022-12-10", 0.0733], ["2022-12-10", 0.2057], ["2022-12-10", 0.185], ["2022-12-10", 0.2744], ["2022-12-10", 0.255], ["2022-12-10", 0.256], ["2022-12-10", 0.2336], ["2022-12-10", 0.25], ["2022-12-10", 0.27], ["2022-12-10", 0.2864], ["2022-12-10", 0.3007], ["2022-12-10", 0.3013], ["2022-12-10", 0.3025], ["2022-12-10", 0.3024], ["2022-12-11", 0.2856], ["2022-12-11", 0.2711], ["2022-12-11", 0.2575], ["2022-12-12", 0.2452], ["2022-12-12", 0.2452], ["2022-12-12", 0.2386], ["2022-12-12", 0.2391], ["2022-12-12", 0.2417], ["2022-12-12", 0.2409], ["2022-12-12", 0.2495], ["2022-12-13", 0.2619], ["2022-12-13", 0.2619], ["2022-12-13", 0.2056], ["2022-12-13", 0.175], ["2022-12-13", 0.1393], ["2022-12-14", 0.1246], ["2022-12-14", 0.1871], ["2022-12-14", 0.1871], ["2022-12-15", 0.2175], ["2022-12-15", 0.2315], ["2022-12-15", 0.2221], ["2022-12-15", 0.2186], ["2022-12-16", 0.2354], ["2022-12-16", 0.2329], ["2022-12-16", 0.2143], ["2022-12-16", 0.2193], ["2022-12-16", 0.2136], ["2022-12-17", 0.2043], ["2022-12-17", 0.2114], ["2022-12-17", 0.1986], ["2022-12-19", 0.1921], ["2022-12-20", 0.19], ["2022-12-20", 0.1907], ["2022-12-20", 0.1993], ["2022-12-21", 0.1979], ["2022-12-21", 0.1971], ["2022-12-21", 0.1964], ["2022-12-22", 0.125], ["2022-12-23", 0.1179], ["2022-12-23", 0.1164], ["2022-12-23", 0.1157], ["2022-12-24", 0.135], ["2022-12-24", 0.1343], ["2022-12-27", 0.1373], ["2022-12-28", 0.1307], ["2022-12-28", 0.1373], ["2022-12-28", 0.1247], ["2022-12-28", 0.1187], ["2022-12-29", 0.1113], ["2022-12-30", 0.1088], ["2022-12-30", 0.095], ["2022-12-31", 0.0981], ["2023-01-01", 0.0953], ["2023-01-02", 0.1006], ["2023-01-02", 0.1565], ["2023-01-02", 0.1533], ["2023-01-02", 0.0978], ["2023-01-02", 0.0939], ["2023-01-03", 0.0933], ["2023-01-03", 0.0989], ["2023-01-03", 0.0978], ["2023-01-03", 0.0989], ["2023-01-03", 0.1068], ["2023-01-04", 0.0942], ["2023-01-04", 0.0811], ["2023-01-05", 0.0789], ["2023-01-05", 0.0816], ["2023-01-06", 0.0747], ["2023-01-06", 0.073], ["2023-01-06", 0.0775], ["2023-01-06", 0.08], ["2023-01-07", 0.0795], ["2023-01-08", 0.077], ["2023-01-09", 0.0765], ["2023-01-12", 0.1115], ["2023-01-12", 0.1125], ["2023-01-12", 0.1305], ["2023-01-15", 0.1252], ["2023-01-16", 0.1681], ["2023-01-16", 0.1357], ["2023-01-16", 0.13], ["2023-01-16", 0.13], ["2023-01-16", 0.129], ["2023-01-16", 0.1267], ["2023-01-16", 0.1262], ["2023-01-17", 0.1238], ["2023-01-17", 0.1271], ["2023-01-19", 0.1352], ["2023-01-19", 0.1371], ["2023-01-19", 0.1367], ["2023-01-19", 0.1367], ["2023-01-22", 0.1362], ["2023-01-24", 0.1338], ["2023-01-25", 0.141], ["2023-01-26", 0.1314], ["2023-01-26", 0.1255], ["2023-01-28", 0.125], ["2023-01-31", 0.1227], ["2023-01-31", 0.1218], ["2023-02-01", 0.1164], ["2023-02-02", 0.1141], ["2023-02-03", 0.1141], ["2023-02-04", 0.1141], ["2023-02-05", 0.1186], ["2023-02-06", 0.1177], ["2023-02-06", 0.1173], ["2023-02-08", 0.1186], ["2023-02-13", 0.1164], ["2023-02-14", 0.1191], ["2023-02-14", 0.1186], ["2023-02-17", 0.1173], ["2023-02-20", 0.115], ["2023-02-20", 0.1127], ["2023-02-21", 0.1059], ["2023-02-21", 0.1055], ["2023-02-22", 0.1032], ["2023-02-23", 0.1032], ["2023-02-26", 0.1004], ["2023-02-27", 0.0983], ["2023-02-28", 0.0961], ["2023-02-28", 0.0921], ["2023-03-04", 0.0592], ["2023-03-04", 0.0583], ["2023-03-05", 0.0571], ["2023-03-06", 0.0567], ["2023-03-07", 0.0496], ["2023-03-07", 0.0463], ["2023-03-08", 0.0444], ["2023-03-09", 0.044], ["2023-03-11", 0.042], ["2023-03-12", 0.0412], ["2023-03-13", 0.04], ["2023-03-21", 0.04], ["2023-03-25", 0.0384], ["2023-03-26", 0.0384], ["2023-03-27", 0.0408], ["2023-03-27", 0.0404], ["2023-03-28", 0.0296], ["2023-03-29", 0.0284], ["2023-03-29", 0.0284], ["2023-03-30", 0.0224], ["2023-03-31", 0.0224], ["2023-04-01", 0.0204], ["2023-04-01", 0.0196], ["2023-04-01", 0.0196]] | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mississippi_Company", "https://blockworks.co/news/funding-roundup-crypto-infrastructure", "https://www.reuters.com/technology/slowing-crypto-startup-funding-may-still-surpass-2021-record-pitchbook-2022-12-08/", "https://pitchbook.com/news/reports/q4-2022-pitchbook-nvca-venture-monitor-first-look", "https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/vc-valuation-winners-losers-verticals-sectors", "https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/private-equity-and-institutional-investors-back-away-from-crypto-and-defi-73627011", "https://pitchbook.com/news/reports/q4-2022-pitchbook-analyst-note-2023-industry-and-technology-outlook", "https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/financial-services/pdf/h1-2022-global-crypto-ma-and-fundraising-report.pdf", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-justice-dept-is-split-over-charging-binance-crypto-world-falters-sources-2022-12-12/", "https://news.crunchbase.com/business/global-vc-funding-unicorns-2021-monthly-recap/", "https://cointelegraph.com/news/blockchain-vc-funding-surpasses-2021-total-despite-declining-since-may", "https://fortune.com/2022/08/01/crypto-vc-on-why-the-space-is-ripe-for-insider-rounds/", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/07/just-8percent-of-americans-have-a-positive-view-of-cryptocurrencies-now-cnbc-survey-finds.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-08/the-hype-around-esports-is-fading-as-investors-and-sponsors-flee", "https://www.japantimes.co.jp/life/2022/12/10/style/on-fashion-crypto-decline-collabs/", "https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/12/16/crypto-trading-firm-amber-group-raises-300m-series-c-after-ftx-contagion/", "https://hackernoon.com/crypto-vc-behavior-reveals-market-trends-for-2023-and-beyond", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-09/crypto-startup-funding-falls-to-lowest-level-in-almost-two-years?leadSource=uverify%20wall", "https://fortune.com/crypto/2022/12/29/10-biggest-crypto-funding-rounds-2022/", "https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/research/ftx-collapse-and-the-impact-on-the-enterprise-blockchain-market", "https://news.crunchbase.com/venture/global-vc-funding-pullback-q3-2022-monthly-recap/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-05-30 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2795 |
<p>While China in November 2022 agreed to allow German expatriates in the country to receive Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccines, China has yet to approve more effective foreign mRNA COVID-19 vaccines for use among Chinese citizens (<a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/olaf-scholz-china-visit-secures-biontech-pfizer-vaccine-covid-19-coronavirus-access-for-expats/" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="https://publichealth.jhu.edu/2021/the-long-history-of-mrna-vaccines" target="_blank">JHU Bloomberg School of Public Health</a>). An approval does not need to include every Chinese citizen to count, but approvals for research and/or trials alone would not count. China approving the use of a foreign-developed vaccine that would be manufactured in China would count. China approving the use of a vaccine developed in a partnership between Chinese and foreign firms would not count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>
| 2023-05-31 | Will the Chinese government publicly announce that it has approved the use of a foreign mRNA COVID-19 vaccine for use among its citizens in the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 31 May 2023? | 2023-03-14 | [["2023-03-15", 0.0], ["2023-03-15", 0.025], ["2023-03-15", 0.02], ["2023-03-15", 0.0275], ["2023-03-15", 0.042], ["2023-03-15", 0.0417], ["2023-03-15", 0.0443], ["2023-03-15", 0.045], ["2023-03-15", 0.0456], ["2023-03-15", 0.042], ["2023-03-15", 0.0427], ["2023-03-15", 0.0392], ["2023-03-15", 0.0369], ["2023-03-15", 0.0343], ["2023-03-16", 0.032], ["2023-03-16", 0.0313], ["2023-03-16", 0.0294], ["2023-03-16", 0.0278], ["2023-03-16", 0.0268], ["2023-03-16", 0.026], ["2023-03-16", 0.0271], ["2023-03-16", 0.0264], ["2023-03-16", 0.0287], ["2023-03-16", 0.0292], ["2023-03-16", 0.0288], ["2023-03-16", 0.0404], ["2023-03-16", 0.0389], ["2023-03-17", 0.0386], ["2023-03-17", 0.0383], ["2023-03-17", 0.037], ["2023-03-17", 0.0358], ["2023-03-17", 0.035], ["2023-03-17", 0.0348], ["2023-03-18", 0.0338], ["2023-03-18", 0.0338], ["2023-03-18", 0.0329], ["2023-03-18", 0.0442], ["2023-03-18", 0.0435], ["2023-03-18", 0.0456], ["2023-03-18", 0.0431], ["2023-03-18", 0.0476], ["2023-03-19", 0.0508], ["2023-03-19", 0.0595], ["2023-03-19", 0.0594], ["2023-03-19", 0.0476], ["2023-03-19", 0.0476], ["2023-03-20", 0.0456], ["2023-03-20", 0.0467], ["2023-03-20", 0.0495], ["2023-03-20", 0.052], ["2023-03-20", 0.0495], ["2023-03-20", 0.0505], ["2023-03-21", 0.05], ["2023-03-21", 0.0585], ["2023-03-21", 0.0585], ["2023-03-21", 0.0629], ["2023-03-21", 0.0629], ["2023-03-21", 0.0629], ["2023-03-21", 0.0627], ["2023-03-21", 0.1055], ["2023-03-21", 0.1064], ["2023-03-21", 0.1017], ["2023-03-21", 0.0852], ["2023-03-22", 0.0861], ["2023-03-22", 0.0883], ["2023-03-22", 0.0896], ["2023-03-23", 0.0874], ["2023-03-23", 0.0838], ["2023-03-24", 0.0846], ["2023-03-24", 0.0829], ["2023-03-24", 0.0856], ["2023-03-24", 0.0876], ["2023-03-25", 0.0858], ["2023-03-25", 0.0881], ["2023-03-26", 0.0862], ["2023-03-26", 0.1092], ["2023-03-27", 0.1293], ["2023-03-27", 0.1274], ["2023-03-27", 0.1348], ["2023-03-27", 0.1348], ["2023-03-28", 0.13], ["2023-03-28", 0.13], ["2023-03-28", 0.1229], ["2023-03-28", 0.1207], ["2023-03-28", 0.12], ["2023-03-28", 0.1166], ["2023-03-28", 0.1166], ["2023-03-30", 0.1145], ["2023-03-30", 0.111], ["2023-03-31", 0.0803], ["2023-03-31", 0.0803], ["2023-04-01", 0.0803], ["2023-04-01", 0.095], ["2023-04-01", 0.0932], ["2023-04-01", 0.0913], ["2023-04-01", 0.0835], ["2023-04-02", 0.0848], ["2023-04-02", 0.0825], ["2023-04-02", 0.0809], ["2023-04-03", 0.0809], ["2023-04-04", 0.1113], ["2023-04-04", 0.08], ["2023-04-04", 0.0806], ["2023-04-04", 0.0788], ["2023-04-05", 0.0909], ["2023-04-05", 0.0879], ["2023-04-05", 0.0853], ["2023-04-05", 0.0832], ["2023-04-06", 0.0832], ["2023-04-07", 0.0832], ["2023-04-07", 0.0803], ["2023-04-08", 0.08], ["2023-04-08", 0.0785], ["2023-04-08", 0.0774], ["2023-04-10", 0.0729], ["2023-04-10", 0.0721], ["2023-04-10", 0.0721], ["2023-04-11", 0.0721], ["2023-04-11", 0.0721], ["2023-04-12", 0.0721], ["2023-04-12", 0.0724], ["2023-04-12", 0.0724], ["2023-04-12", 0.0714], ["2023-04-13", 0.0694], ["2023-04-13", 0.0694], ["2023-04-13", 0.0694], ["2023-04-13", 0.0509], ["2023-04-14", 0.0506], ["2023-04-15", 0.0503], ["2023-04-16", 0.05], ["2023-04-17", 0.0314], ["2023-04-17", 0.0314], ["2023-04-17", 0.0314], ["2023-04-17", 0.0314], ["2023-04-18", 0.0314], ["2023-04-19", 0.0294], ["2023-04-19", 0.0369], ["2023-04-19", 0.0367], ["2023-04-20", 0.0367], ["2023-04-21", 0.0367], ["2023-04-21", 0.0361], ["2023-04-21", 0.0361], ["2023-04-22", 0.0367], ["2023-04-22", 0.0358], ["2023-04-23", 0.0358], ["2023-04-25", 0.0353], ["2023-04-26", 0.0353], ["2023-04-27", 0.057], ["2023-04-27", 0.057], ["2023-04-28", 0.0573], ["2023-04-29", 0.0573], ["2023-04-29", 0.0558], ["2023-04-29", 0.0558], ["2023-04-29", 0.0534], ["2023-05-01", 0.06], ["2023-05-01", 0.06], ["2023-05-01", 0.0595], ["2023-05-02", 0.0592], ["2023-05-02", 0.0392], ["2023-05-02", 0.0389], ["2023-05-03", 0.0384], ["2023-05-05", 0.0384], ["2023-05-06", 0.0374], ["2023-05-07", 0.0459], ["2023-05-08", 0.0459], ["2023-05-08", 0.046], ["2023-05-08", 0.0458], ["2023-05-08", 0.0458], ["2023-05-09", 0.0458], ["2023-05-09", 0.045], ["2023-05-09", 0.0458], ["2023-05-09", 0.046], ["2023-05-09", 0.0385], ["2023-05-11", 0.0385], ["2023-05-11", 0.0385], ["2023-05-12", 0.0385], ["2023-05-12", 0.0383], ["2023-05-13", 0.038], ["2023-05-13", 0.038], ["2023-05-15", 0.0383], ["2023-05-16", 0.0373], ["2023-05-16", 0.0373], ["2023-05-17", 0.0373], ["2023-05-18", 0.0356], ["2023-05-19", 0.0351], ["2023-05-19", 0.0339], ["2023-05-19", 0.0351], ["2023-05-20", 0.0351], ["2023-05-20", 0.0351], ["2023-05-21", 0.0351], ["2023-05-22", 0.0346], ["2023-05-22", 0.0346], ["2023-05-23", 0.0344], ["2023-05-24", 0.0344], ["2023-05-24", 0.0346], ["2023-05-24", 0.0341], ["2023-05-25", 0.0341], ["2023-05-26", 0.0341], ["2023-05-26", 0.028], ["2023-05-26", 0.0279], ["2023-05-27", 0.0279], ["2023-05-27", 0.0267], ["2023-05-27", 0.0267], ["2023-05-27", 0.0267], ["2023-05-28", 0.0267], ["2023-05-28", 0.0267], ["2023-05-29", 0.0267], ["2023-05-29", 0.0262], ["2023-05-29", 0.0262], ["2023-05-29", 0.0262], ["2023-05-30", 0.0262], ["2023-05-30", 0.019], ["2023-05-30", 0.0372], ["2023-05-30", 0.0186], ["2023-05-30", 0.0186], ["2023-05-30", 0.0186], ["2023-05-30", 0.0186]] | ["https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/22/business/china-mrna-covid-vaccine.html", "https://dragontrail.com/resources/blog/chinese-outbound-and-inbound-travel-rules-roundup", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/22/china-approves-first-domestic-mrna-covid-19-vaccine", "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-finally-approves-mrna-covid-065627541.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall", "https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinese-consumers-out-covid-gates-with-caution-rather-than-zest-2023-03-14/", "https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/chinas-cansino-confident-its-mrna-covid-vaccine-good-moderna-pfizer-shots-2023-02-03/", "https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/05/23/report-of-new-covid-wave-in-china-pushes-shares-of-vaccine-makers-higher.html"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2019-12-18 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1406 | <p>In 2014, a special status for local self-government was granted to the Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine, encompassing the Donetsk and Luhansk regions (<a href="https://worldin.economist.com/article/17330/edition2020world-2020-through-putins-eyes" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.kyivpost.com/article/content/war-against-ukraine/poroshenko-calls-on-lawmakers-to-revoke-special-status-for-east-sends-more-troops-to-key-cities-370640html" target="_blank">Kyiv Post</a>). In 2018, Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada adopted bill No. 9153 extending the law governing Donbas' special status through 31 December 2019 (<a href="https://www.unian.info/politics/10286637-ukraine-s-parliament-extends-donbas-special-status-until-2020.html" target="_blank">Unian</a>). Russia wants to see Ukrainian constitution amended to encapsulate the special status, however, Ukraine contends a new version of the law reflecting new realities is necessary (<a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/now-or-never/" target="_blank">Atlantic Council</a>, <a href="https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/2818721-putin-demands-ukraine-extend-law-on-special-status-for-donbas.html" target="_blank">UKRINFORM</a>, <a href="https://www.unian.info/politics/10759374-fm-prystaiko-explains-ways-to-agree-law-on-donbas-special-status-with-occupying-authorities.html" target="_blank">Unian</a>).<br></p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.c1.rada.gov.ua/pls/zweb2/webproc4_1?pf3511=67600" target="_blank">rata.gov.ua</a>). </p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2019-12-26 | Before 1 February 2020, will Ukraine adopt a new law giving or extending Donbas special status for local self-government? | 2019-11-22 | [["2019-11-22", 0.15], ["2019-11-23", 0.2], ["2019-11-24", 0.575], ["2019-11-25", 0.48], ["2019-11-25", 0.195], ["2019-11-25", 0.215], ["2019-11-25", 0.38], ["2019-11-25", 0.3], ["2019-11-25", 0.25], ["2019-11-25", 0.345], ["2019-11-25", 0.25], ["2019-11-25", 0.25], ["2019-11-25", 0.2], ["2019-11-25", 0.05], ["2019-11-25", 0.125], ["2019-11-25", 0.205], ["2019-11-25", 0.105], ["2019-11-25", 0.205], ["2019-11-26", 0.25], ["2019-11-26", 0.25], ["2019-11-26", 0.305], ["2019-11-26", 0.305], ["2019-11-26", 0.305], ["2019-11-26", 0.25], ["2019-11-26", 0.25], ["2019-11-26", 0.4], ["2019-11-26", 0.6], ["2019-11-26", 0.6], ["2019-11-26", 0.65], ["2019-11-26", 0.55], ["2019-11-26", 0.55], ["2019-11-26", 0.4], ["2019-11-26", 0.38], ["2019-11-27", 0.45], ["2019-11-27", 0.38], ["2019-11-27", 0.34], ["2019-11-27", 0.34], ["2019-11-27", 0.28], ["2019-11-27", 0.28], ["2019-11-28", 0.28], ["2019-11-28", 0.315], ["2019-11-28", 0.315], ["2019-11-28", 0.315], ["2019-11-28", 0.315], ["2019-11-28", 0.315], ["2019-11-28", 0.28], ["2019-11-29", 0.28], ["2019-11-29", 0.28], ["2019-11-29", 0.25], ["2019-11-29", 0.25], ["2019-11-30", 0.3], ["2019-11-30", 0.3], ["2019-11-30", 0.35], ["2019-11-30", 0.35], ["2019-11-30", 0.35], ["2019-11-30", 0.35], ["2019-12-01", 0.45], ["2019-12-01", 0.45], ["2019-12-01", 0.575], ["2019-12-01", 0.575], ["2019-12-02", 0.6], ["2019-12-03", 0.6], ["2019-12-03", 0.6], ["2019-12-03", 0.65], ["2019-12-03", 0.65], ["2019-12-03", 0.65], ["2019-12-03", 0.65], ["2019-12-03", 0.65], ["2019-12-04", 0.6], ["2019-12-04", 0.58], ["2019-12-04", 0.58], ["2019-12-04", 0.59], ["2019-12-04", 0.59], ["2019-12-04", 0.59], ["2019-12-05", 0.59], ["2019-12-05", 0.59], ["2019-12-06", 0.625], ["2019-12-06", 0.625], ["2019-12-06", 0.625], ["2019-12-06", 0.625], ["2019-12-06", 0.625], ["2019-12-06", 0.65], ["2019-12-07", 0.65], ["2019-12-07", 0.65], ["2019-12-07", 0.625], ["2019-12-07", 0.625], ["2019-12-08", 0.625], ["2019-12-08", 0.65], ["2019-12-08", 0.65], ["2019-12-08", 0.65], ["2019-12-09", 0.65], ["2019-12-10", 0.65], ["2019-12-10", 0.71], ["2019-12-10", 0.71], ["2019-12-10", 0.71], ["2019-12-10", 0.71], ["2019-12-10", 0.75], ["2019-12-10", 0.75], ["2019-12-11", 0.8], ["2019-12-11", 0.8], ["2019-12-11", 0.8], ["2019-12-11", 0.825], ["2019-12-11", 0.85], ["2019-12-11", 0.85], ["2019-12-11", 0.865], ["2019-12-12", 0.865], ["2019-12-12", 0.885], ["2019-12-12", 0.92], ["2019-12-12", 0.95], ["2019-12-12", 0.95], ["2019-12-12", 0.95], ["2019-12-12", 0.95], ["2019-12-12", 0.95], ["2019-12-12", 0.965], ["2019-12-13", 0.98], ["2019-12-13", 0.99], ["2019-12-13", 0.99], ["2019-12-13", 0.99], ["2019-12-13", 0.99], ["2019-12-13", 1.0], ["2019-12-14", 1.0], ["2019-12-14", 1.0], ["2019-12-14", 1.0], ["2019-12-14", 1.0], ["2019-12-14", 1.0], ["2019-12-14", 1.0], ["2019-12-14", 1.0], ["2019-12-15", 1.0], ["2019-12-15", 1.0], ["2019-12-16", 1.0], ["2019-12-16", 1.0], ["2019-12-16", 1.0], ["2019-12-16", 1.0], ["2019-12-17", 1.0], ["2019-12-18", 1.0], ["2019-12-18", 1.0], ["2019-12-18", 1.0], ["2019-12-18", 1.0], ["2019-12-18", 1.0], ["2019-12-18", 1.0]] | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2021-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1669 |
<p>In an attempt to diversify its energy supply, the UAE has been constructing a nuclear power plant in cooperation with the Korea Electric Power Corp. (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-17/atomic-arabia-u-a-e-reactor-passes-final-hurdle-to-startup" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href="https://www.world-nuclear.org/press/briefings/barakah-nuclear-energy-plant-plant-cooling-water-s.aspx" target="_blank">World Nuclear Association</a>). The first of four reactors has an operating license and is undergoing testing (<a href="https://www.power-eng.com/2020/05/07/enec-ceo-addresses-barakah-nuclear-plant-goals-and-schedule/#gref" target="_blank">Power Engineering</a>, <a href="https://meconstructionnews.com/41794/fanr-board-updated-about-latest-developments-at-barakah-nuclear-power-plant" target="_blank">ME Construction News</a>). Testing alone would not count.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 28 September 2020</span>: For the purposes of this question, power ascension testing is considered testing and will not close the question.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-01-02 | Before 1 January 2021, will the Barakah nuclear power plant begin to supply electricity to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) power grid? | 2020-06-26 | [["2020-06-26", 1.0], 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"https://www.utilities-me.com/news/16379-unit-1-of-barakah-nuclear-energy-plant-reaches-80-power-as-power-ascension-testing-continues", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1617-what-will-be-the-total-domestic-box-office-gross-for-tenet-as-of-8-september-2020-according-to-box-office-mojo"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-02-05 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1934 |
<p>On 1 February 2021, the military (aka "Defence Services") of Myanmar detained various government officials and declared a one-year state of emergency under the constitution (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics-military-text/statement-from-myanmar-military-on-state-of-emergency-idUSKBN2A11A2" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55882489" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.mmtimes.com/news/myanmar-announces-state-emergency.html" target="_blank">Myanmar Times</a>.) Per Article 419, the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services "shall have the right to exercise the powers of legislature, executive and judiciary" (<a href="https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Myanmar_2008.pdf?lang=en" target="_blank">Myanmar Constitution</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p><p></p><p><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 15 February 2021</span>: The Myanmar military currently holds the legislative, executive and judiciary powers of the state. The question would close "Yes" if these powers stop being wholly held by the military.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-02-07 | Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 5 February 2022? | 2021-02-12 | [["2021-02-12", 0.25], ["2021-02-12", 0.4], ["2021-02-12", 0.25], ["2021-02-12", 0.225], ["2021-02-12", 0.25], ["2021-02-12", 0.25], ["2021-02-12", 0.25], ["2021-02-12", 0.225], ["2021-02-12", 0.2], ["2021-02-13", 0.19], ["2021-02-13", 0.2], ["2021-02-13", 0.225], ["2021-02-13", 0.25], 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0.01], ["2021-05-30", 0.01], ["2021-06-06", 0.01], ["2021-06-07", 0.01], ["2021-06-08", 0.01], ["2021-06-08", 0.015], ["2021-06-09", 0.015], ["2021-06-11", 0.015], ["2021-06-12", 0.01], ["2021-06-14", 0.01], ["2021-06-15", 0.01], ["2021-06-19", 0.01], ["2021-06-21", 0.02], ["2021-06-21", 0.02], ["2021-06-24", 0.02], ["2021-06-26", 0.02], ["2021-06-30", 0.015], ["2021-06-30", 0.01], ["2021-07-02", 0.015], ["2021-07-04", 0.015], ["2021-07-06", 0.02], ["2021-07-06", 0.02], ["2021-07-07", 0.02], ["2021-07-08", 0.025], ["2021-07-10", 0.025], ["2021-07-14", 0.03], ["2021-07-14", 0.03], ["2021-07-14", 0.02], ["2021-07-15", 0.02], ["2021-07-16", 0.02], ["2021-07-18", 0.02], ["2021-07-19", 0.02], ["2021-07-19", 0.02], ["2021-07-20", 0.02], ["2021-07-27", 0.02], ["2021-07-28", 0.02], ["2021-07-29", 0.01], ["2021-07-29", 0.02], ["2021-07-29", 0.02], ["2021-07-29", 0.02], ["2021-07-30", 0.02], ["2021-07-30", 0.02], ["2021-07-31", 0.02], ["2021-08-01", 0.02], ["2021-08-01", 0.01], ["2021-08-01", 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["2021-10-13", 0.0], ["2021-10-15", 0.0], ["2021-10-16", 0.0], ["2021-10-17", 0.0], ["2021-10-28", 0.0], ["2021-10-30", 0.0], ["2021-11-04", 0.0], ["2021-11-05", 0.0], ["2021-11-07", 0.0], ["2021-11-08", 0.0], ["2021-11-10", 0.0], ["2021-11-13", 0.0], ["2021-11-14", 0.0], ["2021-11-18", 0.0], ["2021-11-27", 0.0], ["2021-11-28", 0.0], ["2021-11-28", 0.0], ["2021-11-29", 0.0], ["2021-12-01", 0.0], ["2021-12-03", 0.0], ["2021-12-06", 0.0], ["2021-12-06", 0.0], ["2021-12-09", 0.0], ["2021-12-09", 0.0], ["2021-12-10", 0.0], ["2021-12-12", 0.0], ["2021-12-13", 0.0], ["2021-12-15", 0.0], ["2021-12-17", 0.0], ["2021-12-21", 0.0], ["2021-12-21", 0.0], ["2021-12-22", 0.0], ["2021-12-23", 0.0], ["2021-12-23", 0.0], ["2021-12-25", 0.0], ["2021-12-27", 0.0], ["2021-12-29", 0.0], ["2021-12-29", 0.0], ["2022-01-01", 0.0], ["2022-01-01", 0.0], ["2022-01-02", 0.0], ["2022-01-02", 0.0], ["2022-01-03", 0.0], ["2022-01-03", 0.0], ["2022-01-04", 0.0], ["2022-01-04", 0.0], ["2022-01-04", 0.0], 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["https://apnews.com/article/business-health-elections-coronavirus-pandemic-myanmar-8504af88bd5b2c2c2b30c7da5baa8ad5", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/1/world-accused-of-sitting-and-watching-as-myanmar-slides-to-war", "https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/12/asia/myanmar-win-myint-coup-intl-hnk/index.html", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2021/myanmar-crackdown-military-coup/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/un-fears-civilians-myanmar-after-army-build-up-2021-10-08/", "https://thehill.com/policy/international/567112-us-donating-50m-in-humanitarian-aid-to-myanmar", "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/myanmar-junta-seeks-international-cooperation-over-covid-19-crisis-2021-07-28/", "https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/16/asia/asean-excludes-myanmar-junta-intl-hnk/index.html", "https://apnews.com/article/business-myanmar-global-trade-e492010c719dd6713669affd38cc819a", "https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/07/27/myanmar-junta-escalates-media-crackdown", "https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2021/08/27/myanmars-crisis-tests-asean/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/01/world/asia/covid-myanmar-coup.html", "https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/06/asia/myanmar-bodies-found-army-crackdown-intl-hnk/index.html", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/14/a-living-hell-churches-suffer-in-myanmar-military-attacks", "https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/10/1103042", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-05/china-tests-new-myanmar-trade-route-in-boost-to-ties-post", "https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/10/asia/myanmar-un-envoy-plot-intl-hnk/index.html", "https://fortune.com/2021/07/26/myanmar-poverty-gdp-contract-coup-covid/", "https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/22/asia/myanmar-thantlang-exodus-fighting-intl-hnk/index.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/28/world/asia/myanmar-monks-coup.html", "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/british-american-tobacco-pulls-out-army-ruled-myanmar-2021-10-12/", "https://graphics.reuters.com/MYANMAR-POLITICS/zjpqkkoaqpx/", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/myanmar-doctors-risk-arrest-to-treat-covid-19-patients-in-secret-11628601972", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/03/world/asia/japan-myanmar-soccer-asylum.html", "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/anti-military-protests-myanmar-anniversary-1988-uprising-2021-08-08/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-09-25 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2060 |
<p>Mozambique's ongoing insurgency in the northern province of Cabo Delgado intensified in 2020 (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-56441499" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/23/mozambique-tanzania-sign-deal-to-join-fight-against-armed-groups" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>, <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/southern-africa/mozambique/stemming-insurrection-mozambiques-cabo-delgado" target="_blank">International Crisis Group</a>). On 23 June 2021, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) "approved the Mandate for the SADC Standby Force Mission to the Republic of Mozambique, to be deployed in support of Mozambique to combat of terrorism and acts of violent extremism in Cabo Delgado," though details on when and a force of what size remain to be determined (<a href="https://www.sadc.int/news-events/news/communique-extraordinary-summit-sadc-heads-state-and-government/" target="_blank">SADC</a>, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/6/23/southern-african-nations-agree-to-deploy-forces-to-mozambique" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>, <a href="https://translatorswithoutborders.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Mozambique-Cabo-Delgado-Province-Language-Map.png" target="_blank">Translators Without Borders</a>). For the purposes of this question, "forces" means national military forces or law enforcement.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-10-05 | Will a member of the forces from an African country other than Mozambique be killed in a lethal confrontation in Cabo Delgado before 1 April 2022? | 2021-06-30 | [["2021-06-30", 1.0], ["2021-06-30", 1.0], ["2021-06-30", 1.0], ["2021-07-01", 0.975], ["2021-07-01", 0.95], ["2021-07-01", 0.725], ["2021-07-01", 0.95], ["2021-07-01", 0.975], ["2021-07-01", 0.95], ["2021-07-01", 0.875], ["2021-07-01", 0.8], ["2021-07-01", 0.775], ["2021-07-01", 0.8], ["2021-07-02", 0.875], ["2021-07-02", 0.95], ["2021-07-02", 0.885], ["2021-07-02", 0.9], ["2021-07-02", 0.85], ["2021-07-02", 0.9], ["2021-07-02", 0.85], ["2021-07-03", 0.9], ["2021-07-03", 0.9], ["2021-07-03", 0.9], ["2021-07-03", 0.875], ["2021-07-04", 0.835], ["2021-07-04", 0.835], ["2021-07-04", 0.875], ["2021-07-05", 0.675], ["2021-07-06", 0.63], ["2021-07-06", 0.755], ["2021-07-06", 0.76], ["2021-07-07", 0.75], ["2021-07-07", 0.75], ["2021-07-07", 0.63], ["2021-07-07", 0.63], ["2021-07-07", 0.63], ["2021-07-08", 0.63], ["2021-07-08", 0.75], ["2021-07-09", 0.76], ["2021-07-09", 0.76], ["2021-07-10", 0.83], ["2021-07-10", 0.915], ["2021-07-10", 0.9], ["2021-07-10", 0.9], ["2021-07-10", 0.9], ["2021-07-10", 0.9], ["2021-07-11", 0.9], ["2021-07-11", 0.9], ["2021-07-11", 0.89], ["2021-07-12", 0.825], ["2021-07-12", 0.825], ["2021-07-13", 0.825], ["2021-07-13", 0.85], ["2021-07-13", 0.85], ["2021-07-13", 0.85], ["2021-07-14", 0.825], ["2021-07-14", 0.775], ["2021-07-15", 0.775], ["2021-07-15", 0.775], ["2021-07-15", 0.775], ["2021-07-15", 0.775], ["2021-07-16", 0.775], ["2021-07-17", 0.775], ["2021-07-17", 0.745], ["2021-07-17", 0.745], ["2021-07-17", 0.745], ["2021-07-18", 0.77], ["2021-07-18", 0.77], ["2021-07-18", 0.77], ["2021-07-19", 0.77], ["2021-07-19", 0.78], ["2021-07-20", 0.785], ["2021-07-20", 0.82], ["2021-07-20", 0.82], ["2021-07-20", 0.85], ["2021-07-21", 0.85], ["2021-07-21", 0.85], ["2021-07-21", 0.85], ["2021-07-21", 0.85], ["2021-07-21", 0.85], ["2021-07-22", 0.85], ["2021-07-22", 0.85], ["2021-07-22", 0.85], ["2021-07-22", 0.87], ["2021-07-24", 0.87], ["2021-07-24", 0.87], ["2021-07-25", 0.85], ["2021-07-25", 0.85], ["2021-07-25", 0.87], ["2021-07-26", 0.88], ["2021-07-26", 0.89], ["2021-07-26", 0.89], ["2021-07-26", 0.905], ["2021-07-27", 0.905], ["2021-07-27", 0.91], ["2021-07-27", 0.91], ["2021-07-28", 0.915], ["2021-07-28", 0.915], ["2021-07-28", 0.925], ["2021-07-29", 0.925], ["2021-07-29", 0.925], ["2021-07-29", 0.925], ["2021-07-29", 0.925], ["2021-07-30", 0.915], ["2021-07-30", 0.915], ["2021-07-30", 0.92], ["2021-07-30", 0.92], ["2021-07-31", 0.92], ["2021-08-02", 0.91], ["2021-08-02", 0.91], ["2021-08-02", 0.88], ["2021-08-03", 0.875], ["2021-08-03", 0.875], ["2021-08-04", 0.875], ["2021-08-05", 0.905], ["2021-08-05", 0.905], ["2021-08-06", 0.905], ["2021-08-08", 0.905], ["2021-08-09", 0.905], ["2021-08-09", 0.905], ["2021-08-09", 0.91], ["2021-08-10", 0.93], ["2021-08-10", 0.93], ["2021-08-11", 0.93], ["2021-08-13", 0.92], ["2021-08-14", 0.92], ["2021-08-15", 0.915], ["2021-08-15", 0.915], ["2021-08-18", 0.915], ["2021-08-18", 0.915], ["2021-08-18", 0.885], ["2021-08-19", 0.885], ["2021-08-19", 0.865], ["2021-08-21", 0.86], ["2021-08-22", 0.87], ["2021-08-22", 0.87], ["2021-08-22", 0.89], ["2021-08-23", 0.88], ["2021-08-25", 0.88], ["2021-08-25", 0.88], ["2021-08-29", 0.87], ["2021-09-01", 0.87], ["2021-09-01", 0.87], ["2021-09-02", 0.86], ["2021-09-02", 0.88], ["2021-09-04", 0.895], ["2021-09-05", 0.895], ["2021-09-06", 0.895], ["2021-09-09", 0.895], ["2021-09-10", 0.895], ["2021-09-10", 0.895], ["2021-09-10", 0.895], ["2021-09-10", 0.895], ["2021-09-11", 0.895], ["2021-09-11", 0.895], ["2021-09-12", 0.9], ["2021-09-12", 0.9], ["2021-09-12", 0.9], ["2021-09-13", 0.9], ["2021-09-14", 0.9], ["2021-09-15", 0.9], ["2021-09-16", 0.895], ["2021-09-16", 0.895], ["2021-09-17", 0.895], ["2021-09-17", 0.895], ["2021-09-17", 0.895], ["2021-09-18", 0.895], ["2021-09-19", 0.895], ["2021-09-20", 0.88], ["2021-09-20", 0.88], ["2021-09-22", 0.88], ["2021-09-23", 0.88], ["2021-09-25", 0.88], ["2021-09-25", 0.88]] | ["https://bit.ly/3AXiA1y", "https://www.caboligado.com/reports/cabo-ligado-weekly-6-12-september-2021", "https://www.caboligado.com/", "https://www.caboligado.com/reports/cabo-ligado-weekly-23-29-august-2021", "https://www.caboligado.com/reports/cabo-ligado-weekly-13-19-september-2021", "https://bit.ly/2VHJbkd", "https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/08/10/mozambique-government-retakes-key-town-militants", "https://bbc.in/3fNVbYh", "https://www.caboligado.com/reports/cabo-ligado-weekly-16-22-august-2021", "https://acleddata.com/#/dashboard", "https://www.voanews.com/africa/botswana-sends-nearly-300-troops-mozambique", "https://bit.ly/3j0Jek3", "https://bit.ly/3CzhfQ7", "http://www.fides.org/en/news/70585-AFRICA_MOZAMBIQUE_Crisis_in_Cabo_Delgado_The_military_route_is_dangerous_and_no_one_knows_how_it_will_end_Catholic_NGOs_warn", "https://bit.ly/3y1tgKO", "https://www.opais.co.mz/forcas-conjuntas-recuperam-mocimboa-da-praia-em-cabo-delgado/", "https://www.caboligado.com/reports/cabo-ligado-weekly-2-8-august-2021", "https://www.caboligado.com/reports/cabo-ligado-weekly-30-august-5-september-2021", "https://www.caboligado.com/reports/cabo-ligado-weekly-20-26-september-2021", "https://www.caboligado.com/reports/cabo-ligado-weekly-26-july-1-august-2021", "https://reliefweb.int/report/mozambique/mozambique-update-cabo-delgado-situation-12-25-june-2021", "https://reliefweb.int/report/mozambique/mozambique-cabo-delgado-nampula-niassa-humanitarian-snapshot-june-2021", "https://www.caboligado.com/reports/cabo-ligado-weekly-9-15-august-2021", "https://bit.ly/3iYwri7", "https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2021/08/12/why-mozambique-invited-foreign-troops-to-fight-its-jihadists"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2020-12-08 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1830 |
<p>The outcome will be determined using team record data as reported by the NFL (<a href="https://www.nfl.com/standings/" target="_blank">NFL</a>). Ties would be counted as 1/2 of a win (<a href="https://operations.nfl.com/the-rules/nfl-tiebreaking-procedures/" target="_blank">NFL</a>).</p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2020-12-08 | Will the Washington Football Team (fka Washington Redskins) win five or more regular season games in the 2020 NFL season? | 2020-11-09 | [["2020-11-10", 0.4], ["2020-11-10", 0.53], ["2020-11-10", 0.57], ["2020-11-10", 0.485], ["2020-11-10", 0.485], ["2020-11-10", 0.4], ["2020-11-10", 0.485], ["2020-11-10", 0.4], ["2020-11-10", 0.4], ["2020-11-10", 0.4], ["2020-11-10", 0.4], ["2020-11-10", 0.4], ["2020-11-10", 0.4], ["2020-11-10", 0.39], ["2020-11-10", 0.4], ["2020-11-10", 0.415], ["2020-11-10", 0.415], ["2020-11-10", 0.415], ["2020-11-10", 0.415], ["2020-11-10", 0.46], ["2020-11-10", 0.46], ["2020-11-10", 0.46], ["2020-11-10", 0.56], ["2020-11-10", 0.46], ["2020-11-10", 0.46], ["2020-11-10", 0.375], ["2020-11-10", 0.375], ["2020-11-10", 0.4], ["2020-11-10", 0.4], ["2020-11-10", 0.4], ["2020-11-10", 0.4], ["2020-11-10", 0.375], ["2020-11-10", 0.35], ["2020-11-10", 0.35], ["2020-11-10", 0.375], ["2020-11-10", 0.365], ["2020-11-10", 0.365], ["2020-11-10", 0.4], ["2020-11-10", 0.33], ["2020-11-10", 0.315], ["2020-11-10", 0.365], ["2020-11-11", 0.425], ["2020-11-11", 0.445], ["2020-11-11", 0.45], ["2020-11-11", 0.44], ["2020-11-11", 0.44], ["2020-11-11", 0.415], ["2020-11-11", 0.415], ["2020-11-11", 0.36], ["2020-11-11", 0.36], ["2020-11-11", 0.385], ["2020-11-11", 0.39], ["2020-11-11", 0.39], ["2020-11-11", 0.385], ["2020-11-11", 0.415], ["2020-11-11", 0.415], ["2020-11-11", 0.39], ["2020-11-11", 0.39], ["2020-11-11", 0.385], ["2020-11-11", 0.34], ["2020-11-11", 0.27], ["2020-11-11", 0.34], ["2020-11-11", 0.3], ["2020-11-11", 0.3], ["2020-11-11", 0.34], ["2020-11-11", 0.34], ["2020-11-11", 0.34], ["2020-11-11", 0.3], ["2020-11-11", 0.3], ["2020-11-11", 0.29], ["2020-11-11", 0.26], ["2020-11-12", 0.29], ["2020-11-12", 0.29], ["2020-11-12", 0.3], ["2020-11-12", 0.28], ["2020-11-12", 0.29], ["2020-11-12", 0.305], ["2020-11-12", 0.33], ["2020-11-12", 0.35], ["2020-11-12", 0.35], ["2020-11-12", 0.425], ["2020-11-12", 0.365], ["2020-11-12", 0.44], ["2020-11-12", 0.5], ["2020-11-12", 0.5], ["2020-11-12", 0.475], ["2020-11-12", 0.415], ["2020-11-12", 0.415], ["2020-11-12", 0.38], ["2020-11-12", 0.38], ["2020-11-13", 0.38], ["2020-11-13", 0.38], ["2020-11-14", 0.38], ["2020-11-14", 0.4], ["2020-11-16", 0.4], ["2020-11-16", 0.39], ["2020-11-16", 0.365], ["2020-11-16", 0.365], ["2020-11-16", 0.39], ["2020-11-16", 0.4], ["2020-11-16", 0.38], ["2020-11-16", 0.38], ["2020-11-16", 0.35], ["2020-11-16", 0.33], ["2020-11-16", 0.33], ["2020-11-17", 0.34], ["2020-11-17", 0.34], ["2020-11-17", 0.365], ["2020-11-17", 0.35], ["2020-11-17", 0.38], ["2020-11-17", 0.38], ["2020-11-18", 0.38], ["2020-11-18", 0.39], ["2020-11-18", 0.365], ["2020-11-18", 0.34], ["2020-11-19", 0.34], ["2020-11-19", 0.34], ["2020-11-19", 0.34], ["2020-11-19", 0.325], ["2020-11-19", 0.32], ["2020-11-19", 0.3], ["2020-11-20", 0.3], ["2020-11-20", 0.3], ["2020-11-20", 0.3], ["2020-11-21", 0.3], ["2020-11-21", 0.275], ["2020-11-21", 0.275], ["2020-11-22", 0.25], ["2020-11-22", 0.25], ["2020-11-23", 0.275], ["2020-11-23", 0.275], ["2020-11-23", 0.275], ["2020-11-23", 0.275], ["2020-11-23", 0.275], ["2020-11-23", 0.275], ["2020-11-23", 0.3], ["2020-11-24", 0.315], ["2020-11-24", 0.33], ["2020-11-24", 0.335], ["2020-11-24", 0.335], ["2020-11-24", 0.34], ["2020-11-24", 0.35], ["2020-11-24", 0.35], ["2020-11-24", 0.35], ["2020-11-24", 0.4], ["2020-11-24", 0.4], ["2020-11-24", 0.4], ["2020-11-24", 0.4], ["2020-11-25", 0.415], ["2020-11-25", 0.415], ["2020-11-25", 0.415], ["2020-11-25", 0.425], ["2020-11-25", 0.44], ["2020-11-25", 0.44], ["2020-11-25", 0.45], ["2020-11-25", 0.45], ["2020-11-26", 0.44], ["2020-11-26", 0.475], ["2020-11-27", 0.475], ["2020-11-27", 0.5], ["2020-11-27", 0.5], ["2020-11-27", 0.5], ["2020-11-27", 0.5], ["2020-11-27", 0.5], ["2020-11-27", 0.5], ["2020-11-27", 0.5], ["2020-11-27", 0.505], ["2020-11-27", 0.505], ["2020-11-27", 0.515], ["2020-11-27", 0.525], ["2020-11-27", 0.54], ["2020-11-28", 0.55], ["2020-11-28", 0.55], ["2020-11-28", 0.55], ["2020-11-28", 0.55], ["2020-11-28", 0.6], ["2020-11-29", 0.65], ["2020-11-29", 0.65], ["2020-11-29", 0.66], ["2020-11-29", 0.67], ["2020-11-29", 0.69], ["2020-11-29", 0.7], ["2020-11-29", 0.71], ["2020-11-29", 0.735], ["2020-11-29", 0.75], ["2020-11-30", 0.75], ["2020-11-30", 0.76], ["2020-11-30", 0.785], ["2020-11-30", 0.785], ["2020-11-30", 0.8], ["2020-11-30", 0.8], ["2020-11-30", 0.8], ["2020-11-30", 0.81], ["2020-11-30", 0.815], ["2020-11-30", 0.815], ["2020-11-30", 0.8], ["2020-11-30", 0.83], ["2020-11-30", 0.83], ["2020-11-30", 0.83], ["2020-11-30", 0.815], ["2020-11-30", 0.815], ["2020-11-30", 0.815], ["2020-11-30", 0.84], ["2020-11-30", 0.85], ["2020-11-30", 0.85], ["2020-11-30", 0.85], ["2020-11-30", 0.85], ["2020-12-01", 0.85], ["2020-12-01", 0.85], ["2020-12-01", 0.85], ["2020-12-01", 0.85], ["2020-12-01", 0.85], ["2020-12-01", 0.85], ["2020-12-01", 0.85], ["2020-12-01", 0.85], ["2020-12-01", 0.85], ["2020-12-01", 0.85], ["2020-12-01", 0.85], ["2020-12-02", 0.85], ["2020-12-02", 0.85], ["2020-12-02", 0.85], ["2020-12-02", 0.85], ["2020-12-02", 0.85], ["2020-12-02", 0.85], ["2020-12-02", 0.85], ["2020-12-02", 0.85], ["2020-12-02", 0.85], ["2020-12-02", 0.85], ["2020-12-03", 0.85], ["2020-12-03", 0.85], ["2020-12-03", 0.85], ["2020-12-03", 0.85], ["2020-12-04", 0.85], ["2020-12-04", 0.85], ["2020-12-04", 0.85], ["2020-12-05", 0.85], ["2020-12-06", 0.85], ["2020-12-06", 0.85], ["2020-12-06", 0.85], ["2020-12-07", 0.85], ["2020-12-07", 0.85], ["2020-12-07", 0.85], ["2020-12-07", 0.85], ["2020-12-07", 0.85], ["2020-12-08", 0.85], ["2020-12-08", 0.85], ["2020-12-08", 0.85], ["2020-12-08", 0.85], ["2020-12-08", 0.85], ["2020-12-08", 0.85], ["2020-12-08", 0.85], ["2020-12-08", 0.85], ["2020-12-08", 0.85], ["2020-12-08", 0.85]] | ["https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/was/2020/gamelog/", "https://www.thelines.com/odds/washington-football-team/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2023-08-25 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2816 |
<p>Elon Musk announced that Trump's Twitter account was reactivated after a poll held on the site, but Trump not tweeted since 2021 (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/29/donald-trump-is-back-on-social-media-and-now-what-happens.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump" target="_blank">Twitter</a>). Retweets would not count, and a tweet that is immediately deleted or removed would count so long as there is credible reporting that the tweet occurred. Claims that a tweet was the result of a hack would be immaterial.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 24 July 2023</span>: Twitter's rebranding as "X" is immaterial to this question. "X" is still considered to be Twitter.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-08-25 | Will there be a new tweet on former President Donald Trump's Twitter account, @realdonaldtrump, before 1 December 2023? | 2023-03-30 | [["2023-03-31", 0.62], ["2023-03-31", 0.71], ["2023-03-31", 0.7567], ["2023-03-31", 0.73], ["2023-03-31", 0.754], ["2023-03-31", 0.7533], ["2023-03-31", 0.7617], ["2023-03-31", 0.7957], ["2023-03-31", 0.8088], ["2023-03-31", 0.83], ["2023-03-31", 0.813], ["2023-03-31", 0.8182], ["2023-03-31", 0.8333], ["2023-03-31", 0.7823], ["2023-03-31", 0.7336], ["2023-03-31", 0.698], ["2023-03-31", 0.6725], ["2023-03-31", 0.6813], ["2023-04-01", 0.6653], ["2023-04-01", 0.6811], ["2023-04-01", 0.6453], ["2023-04-01", 0.638], ["2023-04-01", 0.641], ["2023-04-01", 0.6345], ["2023-04-01", 0.6461], ["2023-04-01", 0.6483], ["2023-04-01", 0.6536], ["2023-04-01", 0.6556], ["2023-04-01", 0.6631], ["2023-04-01", 0.6658], ["2023-04-02", 0.6677], ["2023-04-02", 0.6769], ["2023-04-02", 0.6852], ["2023-04-02", 0.6804], ["2023-04-02", 0.6797], ["2023-04-02", 0.6683], ["2023-04-02", 0.679], ["2023-04-02", 0.6803], ["2023-04-02", 0.6694], ["2023-04-02", 0.67], ["2023-04-03", 0.6694], ["2023-04-03", 0.6717], ["2023-04-03", 0.6728], ["2023-04-03", 0.6597], ["2023-04-03", 0.634], ["2023-04-03", 0.6086], ["2023-04-03", 0.6234], ["2023-04-03", 0.6439], ["2023-04-03", 0.6457], ["2023-04-03", 0.6457], ["2023-04-04", 0.6576], ["2023-04-04", 0.6993], ["2023-04-04", 0.7087], ["2023-04-04", 0.7179], ["2023-04-04", 0.7188], ["2023-04-05", 0.705], ["2023-04-05", 0.7004], ["2023-04-05", 0.6717], ["2023-04-05", 0.6708], ["2023-04-05", 0.6706], ["2023-04-05", 0.6353], ["2023-04-06", 0.65], ["2023-04-06", 0.6565], ["2023-04-06", 0.6805], ["2023-04-07", 0.6595], ["2023-04-07", 0.6376], ["2023-04-07", 0.6314], ["2023-04-07", 0.6345], ["2023-04-07", 0.6186], ["2023-04-08", 0.6205], ["2023-04-09", 0.6055], ["2023-04-10", 0.6182], ["2023-04-10", 0.6348], ["2023-04-11", 0.6522], ["2023-04-12", 0.6667], ["2023-04-16", 0.6542], ["2023-04-18", 0.6558], ["2023-04-20", 0.6542], ["2023-04-20", 0.6533], ["2023-04-21", 0.6179], ["2023-04-21", 0.6158], ["2023-04-24", 0.6138], ["2023-04-24", 0.6138], ["2023-04-25", 0.6179], ["2023-04-25", 0.61], ["2023-04-25", 0.6217], ["2023-04-25", 0.6183], ["2023-04-25", 0.6163], ["2023-04-26", 0.6276], ["2023-04-29", 0.654], ["2023-04-30", 0.624], ["2023-05-01", 0.6176], ["2023-05-09", 0.5988], ["2023-05-09", 0.5765], ["2023-05-10", 0.5758], ["2023-05-11", 0.5835], ["2023-05-12", 0.6138], ["2023-05-14", 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0.4765], ["2023-06-11", 0.4746], ["2023-06-13", 0.46], ["2023-06-14", 0.4541], ["2023-06-14", 0.4563], ["2023-06-14", 0.4285], ["2023-06-15", 0.4437], ["2023-06-15", 0.4307], ["2023-06-15", 0.4259], ["2023-06-18", 0.4219], ["2023-06-19", 0.4137], ["2023-06-20", 0.4096], ["2023-06-20", 0.4059], ["2023-06-20", 0.4237], ["2023-06-22", 0.4093], ["2023-06-22", 0.4129], ["2023-06-22", 0.4104], ["2023-06-22", 0.4136], ["2023-06-23", 0.4129], ["2023-06-23", 0.3925], ["2023-06-24", 0.4117], ["2023-06-24", 0.41], ["2023-06-24", 0.4128], ["2023-06-26", 0.4017], ["2023-06-28", 0.4087], ["2023-06-28", 0.4093], ["2023-06-28", 0.411], ["2023-06-28", 0.4123], ["2023-06-29", 0.41], ["2023-06-30", 0.4093], ["2023-06-30", 0.416], ["2023-07-01", 0.4143], ["2023-07-01", 0.4093], ["2023-07-01", 0.406], ["2023-07-02", 0.403], ["2023-07-03", 0.402], ["2023-07-04", 0.403], ["2023-07-05", 0.3717], ["2023-07-06", 0.3713], ["2023-07-06", 0.3673], ["2023-07-06", 0.3663], ["2023-07-06", 0.3667], ["2023-07-06", 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0.2815], ["2023-07-31", 0.2785], ["2023-08-01", 0.2755], ["2023-08-01", 0.2664], ["2023-08-01", 0.2644], ["2023-08-01", 0.2635], ["2023-08-01", 0.2682], ["2023-08-02", 0.2668], ["2023-08-02", 0.2756], ["2023-08-02", 0.2762], ["2023-08-03", 0.2732], ["2023-08-03", 0.2709], ["2023-08-03", 0.2697], ["2023-08-03", 0.2688], ["2023-08-03", 0.2683], ["2023-08-03", 0.2557], ["2023-08-03", 0.2554], ["2023-08-03", 0.246], ["2023-08-03", 0.2451], ["2023-08-03", 0.242], ["2023-08-04", 0.2134], ["2023-08-05", 0.2129], ["2023-08-05", 0.2126], ["2023-08-05", 0.2123], ["2023-08-05", 0.23], ["2023-08-05", 0.2286], ["2023-08-06", 0.2272], ["2023-08-06", 0.2264], ["2023-08-07", 0.2261], ["2023-08-07", 0.2256], ["2023-08-08", 0.2144], ["2023-08-08", 0.2142], ["2023-08-08", 0.2131], ["2023-08-09", 0.2125], ["2023-08-09", 0.2086], ["2023-08-09", 0.2083], ["2023-08-11", 0.2083], ["2023-08-12", 0.1883], ["2023-08-13", 0.2019], ["2023-08-13", 0.2158], ["2023-08-15", 0.2153], ["2023-08-16", 0.2131], ["2023-08-17", 0.2117], ["2023-08-18", 0.2069], ["2023-08-18", 0.2056], ["2023-08-18", 0.2061], ["2023-08-19", 0.2089], ["2023-08-20", 0.2111], ["2023-08-20", 0.2097], ["2023-08-21", 0.2014], ["2023-08-21", 0.2008], ["2023-08-22", 0.2006], ["2023-08-22", 0.2003], ["2023-08-22", 0.2], ["2023-08-22", 0.1989], ["2023-08-22", 0.1962], ["2023-08-23", 0.1881], ["2023-08-23", 0.1878], ["2023-08-24", 0.1851], ["2023-08-24", 0.1846], ["2023-08-25", 0.1846]] | ["https://arbital.com/p/bayes_rule/?l=1zq", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chebyshev%27s_inequality", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/68%E2%80%9395%E2%80%9399.7_rule", "https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/09/politics/e-jean-carroll-trump-lawsuit-battery-defamation-verdict/index.html", "https://www.statology.org/probability-of-at-least-one-success/", "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/ron-desantis-presidential-bid-campaign-elon-musk-rcna85288", "https://towardsdatascience.com/the-copernican-principle-and-how-to-use-statistics-to-figure-out-how-long-anything-will-last-9cceb7aba20a", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cromwell%27s_rule", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reference_class_problem", "https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1694886846050771321?s=20", "https://twitter.com/realtrumpvids", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean", "https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1694886846050771321", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffreys_prior#N-sided_die_with_biased_probabilities", "https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/jack-smith-previously-search-warrant-trumps-twitter-new/story?id=102138194", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_of_succession", "https://twitter.com/oneunderscore__/status/1661507811740712960", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2023/06/28/trump-is-reportedly-mulling-a-return-to-twitter-after-truth-social-exclusivity-deal-expires/?sh=7acfd9c770a6", "https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-judge-social-media-violence_n_642c4a12e4b0c8ff04089deb", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_of_succession#Further_analysis", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Additive_smoothing#Pseudocount", "https://www.statology.org/range-rule-of-thumb/", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/16/politics/trump-debate-counterprogramming/index.html", "https://www.axios.com/2023/06/14/trumps-truth-social-troubles"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2024-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2698 |
<p>Taiwan has raised concerns regarding potential actions by the People's Republic of China in the Pratas Island (<a href="https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/china-reportedly-debated-attacking-taiwans-pratas-islands/news-story/d12105d9ef57b6c5f448b1e5d7c1297a" target="_blank">News.com.au</a>, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/taiwans-outlying-islands-are-on-the-frontline-with-china-2022-12" target="_blank">Business Insider</a>, <a href="https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2022/02/15/2003773151" target="_blank">Taipei Times</a>, <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/chinas-military-spending-lot-more-202012314.html" target="_blank">Yahoo</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2024-01-01 | Before 1 January 2024, will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of landing military personnel on the Pratas Islands without authorization? | 2023-01-06 | [["2023-01-06", 0.05], ["2023-01-06", 0.075], ["2023-01-06", 0.0833], ["2023-01-06", 0.075], ["2023-01-06", 0.066], ["2023-01-06", 0.055], ["2023-01-06", 0.0471], ["2023-01-06", 0.0471], ["2023-01-06", 0.0475], ["2023-01-06", 0.0422], ["2023-01-06", 0.038], ["2023-01-06", 0.0391], ["2023-01-07", 0.0358], ["2023-01-07", 0.04], ["2023-01-07", 0.0408], ["2023-01-07", 0.0379], ["2023-01-07", 0.0353], ["2023-01-07", 0.0331], ["2023-01-07", 0.0318], ["2023-01-07", 0.0372], ["2023-01-07", 0.0372], ["2023-01-07", 0.0363], ["2023-01-08", 0.0345], ["2023-01-08", 0.0614], ["2023-01-08", 0.0645], ["2023-01-08", 0.0639], ["2023-01-08", 0.0633], ["2023-01-08", 0.0608], ["2023-01-08", 0.0592], ["2023-01-08", 0.067], 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0.0535], ["2023-11-28", 0.0531], ["2023-11-29", 0.0531], ["2023-12-02", 0.0531], ["2023-12-03", 0.0531], ["2023-12-03", 0.0146], ["2023-12-03", 0.0138], ["2023-12-03", 0.0135], ["2023-12-04", 0.0119], ["2023-12-04", 0.0112], ["2023-12-05", 0.01], ["2023-12-05", 0.01], ["2023-12-05", 0.0081], ["2023-12-05", 0.0093], ["2023-12-07", 0.0093], ["2023-12-10", 0.0093], ["2023-12-11", 0.0093], ["2023-12-12", 0.0093], ["2023-12-13", 0.0085], ["2023-12-15", 0.007], ["2023-12-17", 0.0067], ["2023-12-17", 0.0067], ["2023-12-21", 0.0067], ["2023-12-24", 0.0056], ["2023-12-25", 0.0056], ["2023-12-26", 0.0056], ["2023-12-26", 0.0052], ["2023-12-26", 0.0048], ["2023-12-27", 0.0048], ["2023-12-29", 0.0044], ["2023-12-29", 0.0044], ["2023-12-29", 0.0044], ["2023-12-31", 0.0037], ["2024-01-01", 0.0037]] | ["https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRP_Sierra_Madre", "https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/4000912/files/S_PV.9245-EN.pdf?ln=en", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Taiwanese_presidential_election", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wmTEZic71rE", "https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2214635021000666", "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/michael-morell-on-the-strategic-challenges-ahead-in-2023-intelligence-matters/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pratas_Island", "https://globaltaiwan.org/2022/10/the-underestimated-crisis-surrounding-pratas-island/#:~:text=While%20the%20island%20is%20of%20significant%20geostrategic%20importance%20along%20the%20major%20sea%20route%20connecting%20the%20Pacific%20and%20Indian%20oceans%2C%20it%20is%20not%20considered%20to%20be%20explicitly%20covered%20by%20the%20Taiwan%20Relations%20Act%2C%20which%20only%20mentions%20the%20islands%20of%20Taiwan%20and%20the%20Pescadores%20(Penghu%20Islands%2C%20%E6%BE%8E%E6%B9%96%E7%BE%A4%E5%B3%B6", "https://sundayguardianlive.com/top-five/pla-military-operation-possible-as-early-as-mid-august-against-a-small-taiwanese-island", "https://thediplomat.com/2020/12/the-pratas-islands-a-new-flashpoint-in-the-south-china-sea/", "https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/the-poison-frog-strategy", "https://www.militarytimes.com/news/2022/08/12/in-think-tanks-taiwan-war-game-us-beats-china-at-high-cost/", "https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/01/25/asia-pacific/philip-davidson-china-taiwan/", "https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/4000912?ln=en", "https://www.theepochtimes.com/author/guermantes-lailari"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-12-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2676 |
<p>Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea (<a href="https://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/china-drill-meant-to-coerce-south-china-sea-claims-experts-4437504.html" target="_blank">VNExpress</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/china-navy-philippines-manila-south-sea-ee4c0a7b080a27ad559105a44bdfcf31" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/" target="_blank">CSIS</a>, <a href="https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea" target="_blank">Council on Foreign Relations</a>, <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/" target="_blank">Diplomat</a>). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-12-01 | Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 December 2023? | 2022-12-16 | [["2022-12-16", 0.0], ["2022-12-16", 0.1], ["2022-12-16", 0.07], ["2022-12-16", 0.055], ["2022-12-16", 0.044], ["2022-12-16", 0.0367], ["2022-12-16", 0.0383], ["2022-12-16", 0.04], ["2022-12-16", 0.0343], ["2022-12-17", 0.0363], ["2022-12-17", 0.0322], ["2022-12-17", 0.049], ["2022-12-17", 0.0455], ["2022-12-17", 0.0425], ["2022-12-17", 0.0585], ["2022-12-17", 0.0879], ["2022-12-17", 0.082], ["2022-12-17", 0.0827], ["2022-12-17", 0.08], ["2022-12-18", 0.0753], ["2022-12-18", 0.0739], ["2022-12-18", 0.0711], ["2022-12-18", 0.0695], ["2022-12-18", 0.071], ["2022-12-18", 0.1005], ["2022-12-18", 0.0987], ["2022-12-18", 0.095], ["2022-12-19", 0.094], ["2022-12-19", 0.1288], ["2022-12-19", 0.1404], ["2022-12-19", 0.1389], ["2022-12-19", 0.1393], ["2022-12-19", 0.1415], ["2022-12-19", 0.1718], ["2022-12-19", 0.2077], ["2022-12-19", 0.2172], ["2022-12-20", 0.294], ["2022-12-21", 0.2947], ["2022-12-22", 0.3431], ["2022-12-22", 0.3186], ["2022-12-22", 0.315], ["2022-12-22", 0.315], ["2022-12-22", 0.3286], ["2022-12-22", 0.3421], ["2022-12-23", 0.3421], ["2022-12-23", 0.336], ["2022-12-23", 0.338], ["2022-12-23", 0.3047], ["2022-12-23", 0.3147], ["2022-12-25", 0.295], ["2022-12-26", 0.2394], ["2022-12-27", 0.24], ["2022-12-27", 0.24], ["2022-12-27", 0.1931], ["2022-12-27", 0.2244], ["2022-12-28", 0.2435], ["2022-12-29", 0.1994], ["2022-12-29", 0.2], ["2022-12-29", 0.1928], ["2022-12-29", 0.1939], ["2022-12-30", 0.1961], ["2022-12-30", 0.1868], ["2022-12-30", 0.1874], ["2022-12-30", 0.1853], ["2022-12-31", 0.1858], ["2023-01-02", 0.1863], ["2023-01-02", 0.1815], ["2023-01-02", 0.167], ["2023-01-05", 0.1665], ["2023-01-06", 0.199], ["2023-01-06", 0.1965], ["2023-01-07", 0.197], ["2023-01-07", 0.185], ["2023-01-09", 0.1805], ["2023-01-11", 0.1781], ["2023-01-11", 0.1723], ["2023-01-13", 0.1623], ["2023-01-13", 0.165], ["2023-01-13", 0.1764], ["2023-01-13", 0.1768], ["2023-01-15", 0.1768], ["2023-01-16", 0.1696], ["2023-01-17", 0.1691], ["2023-01-17", 0.1704], ["2023-01-19", 0.1352], ["2023-01-19", 0.1217], ["2023-01-19", 0.1213], ["2023-01-19", 0.1648], ["2023-01-20", 0.1579], ["2023-01-20", 0.1558], ["2023-01-23", 0.1558], ["2023-01-24", 0.1592], ["2023-01-25", 0.1588], ["2023-01-27", 0.1528], ["2023-01-27", 0.1508], ["2023-01-28", 0.1508], ["2023-01-30", 0.1508], ["2023-01-31", 0.1508], ["2023-02-01", 0.15], ["2023-02-02", 0.1515], ["2023-02-02", 0.1512], ["2023-02-05", 0.1496], ["2023-02-13", 0.1512], ["2023-02-14", 0.1512], ["2023-02-17", 0.1512], ["2023-02-21", 0.1508], ["2023-02-22", 0.1508], ["2023-02-28", 0.1473], ["2023-03-01", 0.1473], ["2023-03-04", 0.1531], ["2023-03-07", 0.1527], ["2023-03-07", 0.1542], ["2023-03-11", 0.1542], ["2023-03-12", 0.1535], ["2023-03-17", 0.1478], ["2023-03-18", 0.1548], ["2023-03-19", 0.153], ["2023-03-19", 0.1211], ["2023-03-19", 0.1222], ["2023-03-20", 0.1222], ["2023-03-21", 0.1196], ["2023-03-22", 0.1196], ["2023-03-23", 0.12], ["2023-03-23", 0.1196], ["2023-03-25", 0.1196], ["2023-03-26", 0.1196], ["2023-03-28", 0.13], ["2023-03-29", 0.1296], ["2023-03-31", 0.1282], ["2023-04-02", 0.1282], ["2023-04-02", 0.1282], ["2023-04-05", 0.1279], ["2023-04-05", 0.1268], ["2023-04-06", 0.1268], ["2023-04-06", 0.1271], ["2023-04-10", 0.1271], ["2023-04-10", 0.1271], ["2023-04-11", 0.1271], ["2023-04-13", 0.1271], ["2023-04-13", 0.1271], ["2023-04-14", 0.1271], ["2023-04-16", 0.1271], ["2023-04-18", 0.1238], ["2023-04-18", 0.1238], ["2023-04-20", 0.1234], ["2023-04-20", 0.1234], ["2023-04-20", 0.1234], ["2023-04-21", 0.1234], ["2023-04-23", 0.1234], ["2023-04-26", 0.1234], ["2023-04-28", 0.1234], ["2023-04-29", 0.1238], ["2023-05-02", 0.1234], ["2023-05-04", 0.1228], ["2023-05-06", 0.1228], ["2023-05-09", 0.1241], ["2023-05-10", 0.1131], ["2023-05-11", 0.1093], ["2023-05-12", 0.1093], ["2023-05-12", 0.1093], ["2023-05-15", 0.1097], ["2023-05-18", 0.105], ["2023-05-19", 0.1053], ["2023-05-20", 0.1053], ["2023-05-20", 0.1053], ["2023-05-21", 0.105], ["2023-05-21", 0.1037], ["2023-05-26", 0.1037], ["2023-05-26", 0.1037], ["2023-05-27", 0.1037], ["2023-05-30", 0.1037], ["2023-05-31", 0.1037], ["2023-05-31", 0.1023], ["2023-06-03", 0.1023], ["2023-06-06", 0.1037], ["2023-06-07", 0.1057], ["2023-06-07", 0.1053], ["2023-06-08", 0.1053], ["2023-06-08", 0.1053], ["2023-06-11", 0.1053], ["2023-06-12", 0.1053], ["2023-06-16", 0.1053], ["2023-06-21", 0.1047], ["2023-06-21", 0.1047], ["2023-06-21", 0.1043], ["2023-06-22", 0.1043], ["2023-06-22", 0.1043], ["2023-06-23", 0.1043], ["2023-06-26", 0.104], ["2023-07-03", 0.104], ["2023-07-03", 0.1003], ["2023-07-03", 0.1003], ["2023-07-05", 0.1], ["2023-07-07", 0.1], ["2023-07-10", 0.0997], ["2023-07-10", 0.0974], ["2023-07-12", 0.0981], ["2023-07-12", 0.0997], ["2023-07-16", 0.0961], ["2023-07-19", 0.0955], ["2023-07-19", 0.0955], ["2023-07-19", 0.0952], ["2023-07-22", 0.0948], ["2023-07-23", 0.0919], ["2023-07-24", 0.0919], ["2023-07-24", 0.0891], ["2023-07-25", 0.0884], ["2023-07-25", 0.085], ["2023-07-27", 0.085], ["2023-07-29", 0.0844], ["2023-07-29", 0.0841], ["2023-08-04", 0.0841], ["2023-08-08", 0.0838], ["2023-08-09", 0.0838], ["2023-08-09", 0.0838], ["2023-08-10", 0.0822], ["2023-08-10", 0.0819], ["2023-08-11", 0.0803], ["2023-08-11", 0.08], ["2023-08-13", 0.08], ["2023-08-13", 0.08], ["2023-08-13", 0.0794], ["2023-08-15", 0.0791], ["2023-08-15", 0.0478], ["2023-08-16", 0.0475], ["2023-08-16", 0.0472], ["2023-08-16", 0.0469], ["2023-08-23", 0.0466], ["2023-08-24", 0.0463], ["2023-08-25", 0.0463], ["2023-08-25", 0.0463], ["2023-08-26", 0.0463], ["2023-08-28", 0.0463], ["2023-08-29", 0.045], ["2023-08-30", 0.045], ["2023-09-02", 0.0356], ["2023-09-03", 0.0356], ["2023-09-07", 0.035], ["2023-09-07", 0.0341], ["2023-09-07", 0.0328], ["2023-09-09", 0.0325], ["2023-09-14", 0.0322], ["2023-09-14", 0.0322], ["2023-09-16", 0.0319], ["2023-09-22", 0.0319], ["2023-09-22", 0.0319], ["2023-09-22", 0.0313], ["2023-09-24", 0.0303], ["2023-09-29", 0.0303], ["2023-10-01", 0.03], ["2023-10-03", 0.0342], ["2023-10-04", 0.0297], ["2023-10-05", 0.0324], ["2023-10-05", 0.0335], ["2023-10-05", 0.0329], ["2023-10-10", 0.0321], ["2023-10-10", 0.0315], ["2023-10-11", 0.0279], ["2023-10-12", 0.025], ["2023-10-14", 0.025], ["2023-10-14", 0.025], ["2023-10-14", 0.025], ["2023-10-16", 0.025], ["2023-10-17", 0.0247], ["2023-10-19", 0.0241], ["2023-10-19", 0.0221], ["2023-10-23", 0.0253], ["2023-10-23", 0.0279], ["2023-10-24", 0.0279], ["2023-10-25", 0.0294], ["2023-10-25", 0.0321], ["2023-10-25", 0.0376], ["2023-10-25", 0.0374], ["2023-10-26", 0.0374], ["2023-10-27", 0.0374], ["2023-10-27", 0.0377], ["2023-10-28", 0.0377], ["2023-10-30", 0.0377], ["2023-11-01", 0.0386], ["2023-11-03", 0.0357], ["2023-11-03", 0.0346], ["2023-11-06", 0.0346], ["2023-11-07", 0.0351], ["2023-11-08", 0.0351], ["2023-11-09", 0.0346], ["2023-11-09", 0.0342], ["2023-11-11", 0.0339], ["2023-11-12", 0.0336], ["2023-11-12", 0.0328], ["2023-11-14", 0.0331], ["2023-11-14", 0.0331], ["2023-11-15", 0.0331], ["2023-11-15", 0.0331], ["2023-11-17", 0.0322], ["2023-11-17", 0.0289], ["2023-11-18", 0.0264], ["2023-11-18", 0.0264], ["2023-11-18", 0.0264], ["2023-11-19", 0.0257], ["2023-11-20", 0.0257], ["2023-11-20", 0.0257], ["2023-11-20", 0.0254], ["2023-11-20", 0.0281], ["2023-11-20", 0.0273], ["2023-11-21", 0.0266], ["2023-11-22", 0.0266], ["2023-11-22", 0.0263], ["2023-11-24", 0.0263], ["2023-11-24", 0.0258], ["2023-11-26", 0.0258], ["2023-11-26", 0.0258], ["2023-11-27", 0.0255], ["2023-11-27", 0.0261], ["2023-11-27", 0.025], ["2023-11-27", 0.0266], ["2023-11-27", 0.0266], ["2023-11-28", 0.0261], ["2023-11-28", 0.0261], ["2023-11-28", 0.0261], ["2023-11-28", 0.0261], ["2023-11-28", 0.0256], ["2023-11-29", 0.0192], ["2023-11-30", 0.019], ["2023-11-30", 0.019], ["2023-12-01", 0.0179], ["2023-12-01", 0.0177], ["2023-12-01", 0.0177]] | ["https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/03/23/chinese-military-claims-warned-us-warship-leave-south-china/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/26/world/asia/philippines-us-military.html", "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippines-says-chinese-navy-ship-spotted-near-disputed-island-2023-03-04/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/philippines-us-discuss-joint-coast-guard-patrols-south-china-sea-2023-02-20/", "https://news.usni.org/2023/03/06/chinese-warship-cutter-violate-pag-asa-island-territorial-sea-says-philippine-coast-guard", "https://news.sky.com/story/chinese-ship-used-laser-against-coast-guard-vessel-philippines-says-12810093", "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-repeats-call-philippines-remove-grounded-warship-2023-08-08/", "http://www.eisenhowerlibrary.gov/", "https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2023/01/25/malaysian-assets-sufficient-to-monitor-chinese-ships-at-beting-patinggi-ali/", "https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3220962/south-china-sea-philippine-military-chief-visits-remote-spratly-islands-exhorts-troops-fend", "https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2023/1/14/indonesia-deploys-warship-to-monitor-china-coast-guard-vessel", "https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2023/01/23/southeast-asia-stands-firm-in-the-south-china-sea/", "https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/indonesia-riots-two-killed-nickel-plant-dead-chinese-funded-3208991", "https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/03/15/world/philippines-china-military-drills/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/05/01/philippines-taiwan-american-military-china/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/vietnam-rebukes-china-philippines-over-south-china-sea-conduct-2023-05-18/", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-64479712.amp", "https://www.pitzdefanalysis.net/2023/04/discussing-japanese-jfps-3-radar-of.html", "https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/South-China-Sea/Philippines-China-clash-over-new-South-China-Sea-flash-point", "https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/South-China-Sea/U.S.-Philippines-sink-ship-in-war-drills-near-China-claimed-sea", "https://www.defenceconnect.com.au/key-enablers/11442-china-holds-military-cooperation-talks-with-laos-vietnam-and-brunei", "http://eng.chinamil.com.cn/OPINIONS_209196/Opinions_209197/16206432.html", "https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/4000912/files/S_PV.9245-EN.pdf?ln=en", "https://asiatimes.com/2023/05/philippine-coast-guard-getting-muscular-with-china/", "https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/4000912?ln=en"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2020-08-18 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1538 |
<p>Talk of a “brokered” Democratic convention, where multiple ballots at the convention are necessary to select the presidential nominee, has been rising after rule changes and close results in Iowa and New Hampshire (<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/12/politics/democrats-2020-brokered-convention/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/" target="_blank">Five Thirty Eight</a>). The 2020 Democratic National Convention is scheduled to be held 13-16 July 2020 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin (<a href="https://www.demconvention.com/" target="_blank">Demconvention.com</a>, <a href="https://democrats.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/2020-Call-for-Convention-WITH-Attachments-2.26.19.pdf" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Democrats.org</a>). </p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p>
</p>
| 2020-08-19 | Will the Democratic Party nominate their presidential candidate on the first ballot of the presidential roll call at the 2020 Democratic National Convention? | 2020-02-21 | [["2020-02-21", 0.15], ["2020-02-21", 0.475], ["2020-02-22", 0.5], ["2020-02-22", 0.51], ["2020-02-22", 0.51], ["2020-02-22", 0.575], ["2020-02-22", 0.4], ["2020-02-22", 0.525], ["2020-02-22", 0.54], ["2020-02-23", 0.54], ["2020-02-23", 0.465], ["2020-02-23", 0.53], ["2020-02-23", 0.505], ["2020-02-23", 0.4], ["2020-02-23", 0.475], ["2020-02-23", 0.45], ["2020-02-23", 0.475], ["2020-02-23", 0.5], ["2020-02-23", 0.5], ["2020-02-24", 0.45], ["2020-02-24", 0.45], ["2020-02-24", 0.475], ["2020-02-24", 0.5], ["2020-02-24", 0.5], ["2020-02-24", 0.55], ["2020-02-25", 0.6], ["2020-02-25", 0.6], ["2020-02-25", 0.6], ["2020-02-25", 0.6], ["2020-02-25", 0.6], ["2020-02-25", 0.61], ["2020-02-25", 0.6], ["2020-02-25", 0.6], ["2020-02-25", 0.6], ["2020-02-26", 0.575], ["2020-02-26", 0.585], ["2020-02-26", 0.57], ["2020-02-26", 0.56], ["2020-02-26", 0.525], ["2020-02-27", 0.46], ["2020-02-27", 0.455], ["2020-02-27", 0.45], ["2020-02-27", 0.42], ["2020-02-27", 0.375], ["2020-02-28", 0.4], ["2020-02-28", 0.375], ["2020-02-28", 0.375], ["2020-02-28", 0.375], ["2020-02-28", 0.35], ["2020-02-28", 0.35], ["2020-02-29", 0.35], ["2020-02-29", 0.35], ["2020-02-29", 0.375], ["2020-02-29", 0.35], ["2020-02-29", 0.35], ["2020-03-01", 0.35], ["2020-03-01", 0.35], ["2020-03-01", 0.35], ["2020-03-01", 0.35], ["2020-03-01", 0.35], ["2020-03-01", 0.35], ["2020-03-01", 0.35], ["2020-03-01", 0.35], ["2020-03-01", 0.35], ["2020-03-02", 0.35], ["2020-03-02", 0.35], ["2020-03-02", 0.35], ["2020-03-02", 0.35], ["2020-03-02", 0.35], ["2020-03-02", 0.35], ["2020-03-02", 0.35], ["2020-03-02", 0.35], ["2020-03-02", 0.35], ["2020-03-02", 0.35], ["2020-03-03", 0.35], ["2020-03-03", 0.35], ["2020-03-03", 0.35], ["2020-03-03", 0.35], ["2020-03-03", 0.35], ["2020-03-04", 0.35], ["2020-03-04", 0.35], ["2020-03-04", 0.37], 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True | 2020-10-07 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1596 |
<p>The status of the COVID-19 outbreak during late 2020 is an open question as experts look into the possible "next waves" (<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/marleycoyne/2020/04/02/the-us-may-be-heading-to-a-second-or-even-fourth-wave-of-the-coronavirus-epidemic-heres-what-that-means/#213abca516a0" target="_blank">Forbes</a>, <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30845-X/fulltext" target="_blank">Lancet</a>). The outcome will be determined using data for the United States reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) between 1 October and 31 December 2020 (<a href="https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/" target="_blank">WHO</a>). For the seven consecutive day period from 1 April 2020 and 7 April 2020, WHO reported 193,171 combined total confirmed new cases. Total confirmed new cases data for days prior to 1 October 2020 are immaterial to the resolution of this question.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 17 August 2020</span>: Starting on Monday 17 August, the World Health Organization ceased to provide its daily updates via Situation reports (</span></span><a href="https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200810-covid-19-sitrep-203.pdf" target="_blank">WHO</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">, see first entry under "Highlights") and is directing data users to use its dashboard (</span></span><a href="https://covid19.who.int/" target="_blank">COVID-19 global dashboard</a>)<span style="font-size: 10.5px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">. The data provided on WHO's "COVID-19 global dashboard" at approximately 5:00PM ET each day will now be used to resolve this question.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2020-10-07 | For any seven consecutive day period between 1 October and 31 December 2020, will there be 200,000 or more combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States? | 2020-04-17 | [["2020-04-17", 0.1], ["2020-04-17", 0.215], ["2020-04-17", 0.4], ["2020-04-17", 0.5], ["2020-04-18", 0.575], ["2020-04-18", 0.5], ["2020-04-18", 0.375], ["2020-04-18", 0.25], 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False | 2024-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2728 | <p>Investment in artificial intelligence (AI) has grown considerably in just the past decade, with some raising concerns about the potential consequences of embracing the technology (<a href="https://www.techrepublic.com/article/ai-investments-soared-2021-big-problems-remain/" target="_blank">TechRepublic</a>, <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/11/artificial-intelligence-invest-responsible-ai/" target="_blank">World Economic Forum</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/23/microsoft-announces-multibillion-dollar-investment-in-chatgpt-maker-openai.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using 2023 data as first published in the 2024 AI Index Report published by the Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence, expected in March 2024 (<a href="https://aiindex.stanford.edu/report/" target="_blank">Stanford University</a>). In 2021, the total annual investment in AI companies in the world was $176.47 billion (<a href="https://aiindex.stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/2022-AI-Index-Report_Master.pdf" target="_blank">Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2022</a>, see Figure 4.2.1 on page 151). Inflation-adjusted historical data may also be found on Our World in Data (<a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/corporate-investment-in-artificial-intelligence?country=Merger%2Facquisition~Private+investment~Minority+stake~Public+offering" target="_blank">Our World in Data</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Will total global corporate investment in AI in 2023 reach or exceed $300 billion, according to the Artificial Intelligence Index? | 2023-01-23 | [["2023-01-24", 0.85], ["2023-01-24", 0.425], ["2023-01-24", 0.6133], ["2023-01-24", 0.71], ["2023-01-24", 0.768], ["2023-01-24", 0.64], ["2023-01-24", 0.6914], ["2023-01-24", 0.6675], ["2023-01-24", 0.6663], ["2023-01-24", 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"https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/ai-investment-forecast-to-approach-200-billion-globally-by-2025.html", "https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/protect-ai-lands-13-5m-140046021.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmluZy5jb20v&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAADHuL1j9iRe9iJbbZ3vve2LiIOK53cf92EbHd3LovWF9FQJFYgTiyMO27slx0rEYAwtHHsFE-qp0tI4NJdbttriFIvo89NR5hAZrwHs-gdSsw2Cx70YLhLm1KMIl7yts0Y9DKDhZq1Q6Wrd7HkB5eV7rHiQxD3xP0HgWciZQDqC9", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-01/chatgpt-buzz-drives-buying-frenzy-in-china-s-ai-related-stocks?leadSource=uverify%20wall", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/craigsmith/2023/01/14/chinas-ai-implementation-is-edging-ahead-of-the-us/?sh=329848962dfb", "https://hai.stanford.edu/events/jack-clark-presenting-2023-ai-index", "https://www.cbinsights.com/research-state-of-ai?utm_campaign=PAID_2023-08_GOOGLE_STATE_OF_AI_BROAD&campaignid=20648302795&adgroupid=154489320877&utm_term=2023%20ai&utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=PAID_GA-SP_Q12023_RESEARCH_BROAD&utm_content=google-reports&hsa_tgt=kwd-2176058192059&hsa_grp=154489320877&hsa_src=g&hsa_net=adwords&hsa_mt=b&hsa_ver=3&hsa_ad=676803676532&hsa_acc=5728918340&hsa_kw=2023%20ai&hsa_cam=20648302795&gad_source=1&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIrciC8-TXggMVGm5_AB2pRgr9EAAYAiAAEgIOSvD_BwE", "https://www.thebusinessresearchcompany.com/report/investments-global-market-report#:~:text=The%20global%20investments%20market%20grew,least%20in%20the%20short%20term", "https://aiindex.stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/HAI_AI-Index-Report-2023_CHAPTER_4.pdf", "https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-investors-have-plowed-billions-into-chinas-ai-sector-report-shows-2023-02-01/", "https://www.defensenews.com/artificial-intelligence/2023/01/10/air-force-space-force-pursue-ai-readiness-by-2025/", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/technology/amazon-s-4-billion-splash-into-the-ai-wars/ar-AA1hmbiI", "https://netzeroinsights.com/", "https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/apr/02/ai-much-to-offer-humanity-could-wreak-terrible-harm-must-be-controlled?CMP=share_btn_link", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-01/chatgpt-unleashes-stock-trader-stampede-for-everything-ai", "https://hai.stanford.edu/news/state-ai-9-charts"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | 2021-06-11 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1806 |
<p>The outcome of this question will be determined using data for the United States reported by the World Health Organization between 9 October 2020 and 30 June 2021 (<a href="https://covid19.who.int/region/amro/country/us" target="_blank">WHO COVID-19 Dashboard</a>). For the seven consecutive day period from 22 September 2020 and 28 September 2020 (using daily numbers), WHO reported 305,412 combined total confirmed new cases. Total confirmed new cases data for days prior to 9 October 2020 are immaterial to the resolution of this question. The data provided on the WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard at approximately 5:00PM ET each day will now be used to resolve this question.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 7 June 2021</span>: 15 June 2021 is included in the span of time covered by the question. Data will be accessed on 30 June 2021 to determine resolution.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-06-14 | For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be fewer than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States? | 2020-10-09 | [["2020-10-09", 0.05], ["2020-10-09", 0.035], ["2020-10-09", 0.02], ["2020-10-09", 0.065], ["2020-10-10", 0.09], ["2020-10-10", 0.45], ["2020-10-10", 0.65], ["2020-10-11", 0.7], ["2020-10-11", 0.7], ["2020-10-11", 0.8], ["2020-10-11", 0.285], ["2020-10-12", 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"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking-our-work/", "https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=", "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/weekly-covid-cases?tab=chart&time=2020-10-03..latest&country=~USA", "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/jonathanmann/gjopen/master/weekly_covid_cases/weekly_covid_cases.png", "https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases", "https://ourworldindata.org/vaccination-israel-impact", "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-people-vaccinated-covid", "https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html", "https://viz.covid19forecasthub.org/", "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/with-states-reopening-widely-new-covid-hotspots-surface", "https://covidactnow.org/", "https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2025-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-us-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-3-july-2021", "https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations", "https://cafebedouin.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/covid-us-who-7day-combined-cases-2021-05-29.png", "https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1630 |
<p>Chapter 9 filings have been rare since the mechanism was created to allow U.S. municipalities to file for bankruptcy (<a href="https://muninetguide.com/municipal-bankruptcy-statistics/" target="_blank">MuniNet Guide</a>). There is concern that the COVID-19 pandemic might create a surge in filings (<a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/497329-the-sky-is-not-falling-chapter-9-can-help-rescue-and-secure-state-and-local" target="_blank">The Hill</a>, <a href="https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/municipalities-revenue-crunches-and-19646" target="_blank">JD Supra</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2020. The outcome will be determined using Caseload Statistics Data Tables (F-5A) provided by uscourts.gov (<a href="https://www.uscourts.gov/statistics-reports/caseload-statistics-data-tables" target="_blank">U.S. Courts</a>). For 2019, there were a total of six Chapter 9 bankruptcy filings (<a href="https://www.uscourts.gov/sites/default/files/data_tables/bf_f5a_1231.2019.pdf" target="_blank">U.S. Courts - Report F-5A 31 December 2019</a>, see page 133 of 261 in the file).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>
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True | 2020-12-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1829 |
<p>On 10 October 2020 while celebrating the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Workers' Party of Korea, North Korea revealed a ballistic missile estimated to be larger than the Hwasong-15 (<a href="https://www.38north.org/2020/10/melleman102120/" target="_blank">38 North</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54500550" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1210217/the-2020-north-korean-military-parade/" target="_blank">Arms Control Wonk</a>). The Hwasong-15 is estimated to have a length between 21 and 22.5 meters (<a href="https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/hwasong-15-kn-22/" target="_blank">CSIS</a>). For the purposes of this question, the length of a launched missile will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (<a href="https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/dprk/" target="_blank">CSIS</a>). If an estimated range is provided, the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. For the purposes of this question, an ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle.</p><p></p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>
| 2020-12-01 | Will North Korea launch an ICBM with a length of at least 20 meters before 1 December 2020? | 2020-11-09 | [["2020-11-10", 0.05], ["2020-11-10", 0.15], ["2020-11-10", 0.07], ["2020-11-10", 0.06], ["2020-11-10", 0.05], ["2020-11-10", 0.06], ["2020-11-10", 0.06], ["2020-11-10", 0.05], ["2020-11-10", 0.04], ["2020-11-10", 0.05], ["2020-11-10", 0.04], ["2020-11-10", 0.03], ["2020-11-10", 0.03], ["2020-11-10", 0.02], ["2020-11-10", 0.02], ["2020-11-10", 0.06], ["2020-11-10", 0.04], ["2020-11-10", 0.07], ["2020-11-10", 0.095], ["2020-11-10", 0.1], ["2020-11-10", 0.1], ["2020-11-10", 0.1], ["2020-11-10", 0.1], ["2020-11-10", 0.1], ["2020-11-10", 0.1], ["2020-11-10", 0.1], ["2020-11-10", 0.1], ["2020-11-10", 0.15], ["2020-11-10", 0.125], ["2020-11-10", 0.125], ["2020-11-10", 0.075], ["2020-11-10", 0.1], ["2020-11-10", 0.07], ["2020-11-10", 0.095], ["2020-11-10", 0.095], ["2020-11-10", 0.135], ["2020-11-10", 0.12], ["2020-11-10", 0.1], ["2020-11-10", 0.12], ["2020-11-10", 0.09], ["2020-11-10", 0.08], ["2020-11-10", 0.08], ["2020-11-10", 0.06], ["2020-11-10", 0.05], ["2020-11-10", 0.05], ["2020-11-10", 0.05], ["2020-11-10", 0.05], ["2020-11-10", 0.05], ["2020-11-10", 0.05], ["2020-11-10", 0.05], ["2020-11-10", 0.05], ["2020-11-10", 0.05], ["2020-11-10", 0.05], ["2020-11-10", 0.05], ["2020-11-11", 0.05], ["2020-11-11", 0.05], ["2020-11-11", 0.05], ["2020-11-11", 0.05], ["2020-11-11", 0.05], ["2020-11-11", 0.05], ["2020-11-11", 0.05], ["2020-11-11", 0.045], ["2020-11-11", 0.04], ["2020-11-11", 0.04], ["2020-11-11", 0.04], ["2020-11-11", 0.05], ["2020-11-11", 0.05], ["2020-11-11", 0.05], ["2020-11-11", 0.065], ["2020-11-11", 0.065], ["2020-11-11", 0.05], ["2020-11-11", 0.05], ["2020-11-11", 0.06], ["2020-11-11", 0.06], ["2020-11-11", 0.045], ["2020-11-11", 0.04], ["2020-11-11", 0.02], ["2020-11-11", 0.02], ["2020-11-11", 0.02], ["2020-11-11", 0.03], ["2020-11-11", 0.02], ["2020-11-11", 0.02], ["2020-11-11", 0.02], ["2020-11-11", 0.02], ["2020-11-11", 0.02], 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["2020-11-13", 0.05], ["2020-11-13", 0.05], ["2020-11-13", 0.05], ["2020-11-13", 0.05], ["2020-11-13", 0.05], ["2020-11-13", 0.05], ["2020-11-13", 0.05], ["2020-11-14", 0.05], ["2020-11-14", 0.05], ["2020-11-14", 0.05], ["2020-11-14", 0.05], ["2020-11-15", 0.05], ["2020-11-15", 0.05], ["2020-11-15", 0.05], ["2020-11-15", 0.05], ["2020-11-15", 0.05], ["2020-11-15", 0.05], ["2020-11-16", 0.05], ["2020-11-16", 0.05], ["2020-11-16", 0.05], ["2020-11-16", 0.05], ["2020-11-16", 0.05], ["2020-11-16", 0.05], ["2020-11-16", 0.05], ["2020-11-16", 0.05], ["2020-11-16", 0.05], ["2020-11-17", 0.05], ["2020-11-17", 0.05], ["2020-11-17", 0.05], ["2020-11-17", 0.05], ["2020-11-17", 0.05], ["2020-11-17", 0.05], ["2020-11-17", 0.05], ["2020-11-17", 0.05], ["2020-11-17", 0.05], ["2020-11-17", 0.05], ["2020-11-18", 0.05], ["2020-11-18", 0.05], ["2020-11-18", 0.05], ["2020-11-18", 0.05], ["2020-11-18", 0.05], ["2020-11-18", 0.05], ["2020-11-19", 0.05], ["2020-11-19", 0.05], ["2020-11-19", 0.05], ["2020-11-19", 0.05], ["2020-11-19", 0.05], ["2020-11-19", 0.05], ["2020-11-19", 0.05], ["2020-11-19", 0.05], ["2020-11-19", 0.04], ["2020-11-20", 0.04], ["2020-11-20", 0.04], ["2020-11-20", 0.05], ["2020-11-20", 0.05], ["2020-11-20", 0.045], ["2020-11-20", 0.04], ["2020-11-21", 0.04], ["2020-11-21", 0.04], ["2020-11-21", 0.04], ["2020-11-22", 0.035], ["2020-11-22", 0.03], ["2020-11-22", 0.03], ["2020-11-22", 0.03], ["2020-11-22", 0.025], ["2020-11-22", 0.02], ["2020-11-22", 0.02], ["2020-11-22", 0.02], ["2020-11-22", 0.02], ["2020-11-22", 0.02], ["2020-11-23", 0.02], ["2020-11-23", 0.02], ["2020-11-23", 0.02], ["2020-11-23", 0.02], ["2020-11-23", 0.02], ["2020-11-24", 0.02], ["2020-11-24", 0.02], ["2020-11-24", 0.02], ["2020-11-24", 0.015], ["2020-11-24", 0.015], ["2020-11-24", 0.015], ["2020-11-24", 0.02], ["2020-11-25", 0.02], ["2020-11-25", 0.02], ["2020-11-25", 0.02], ["2020-11-25", 0.02], ["2020-11-25", 0.02], ["2020-11-25", 0.02], ["2020-11-25", 0.02], ["2020-11-26", 0.015], ["2020-11-26", 0.015], ["2020-11-27", 0.01], ["2020-11-27", 0.015], ["2020-11-27", 0.015], ["2020-11-27", 0.015], ["2020-11-27", 0.015], ["2020-11-28", 0.01], ["2020-11-28", 0.015], ["2020-11-28", 0.01], ["2020-11-28", 0.01], ["2020-11-28", 0.01], ["2020-11-28", 0.01], ["2020-11-28", 0.01], ["2020-11-28", 0.01], ["2020-11-29", 0.01], ["2020-11-29", 0.01], ["2020-11-29", 0.01], ["2020-11-29", 0.01], ["2020-11-29", 0.01], ["2020-11-29", 0.01], ["2020-11-29", 0.01], ["2020-11-29", 0.01], ["2020-11-29", 0.01], ["2020-11-29", 0.01], ["2020-11-29", 0.01], ["2020-11-29", 0.01], ["2020-11-29", 0.01], ["2020-11-29", 0.01], ["2020-11-29", 0.01], ["2020-11-29", 0.01], ["2020-11-29", 0.01], ["2020-11-29", 0.01], ["2020-11-29", 0.01], ["2020-11-30", 0.01], ["2020-11-30", 0.01], ["2020-11-30", 0.01], ["2020-11-30", 0.01], ["2020-11-30", 0.01], ["2020-11-30", 0.01], ["2020-11-30", 0.01], ["2020-11-30", 0.01], ["2020-11-30", 0.01], ["2020-11-30", 0.01], ["2020-11-30", 0.005], ["2020-11-30", 0.0], ["2020-11-30", 0.0], ["2020-11-30", 0.0], ["2020-11-30", 0.0], ["2020-12-01", 0.0], ["2020-12-01", 0.0], ["2020-12-01", 0.0], ["2020-12-01", 0.0], ["2020-12-01", 0.0], ["2020-12-01", 0.0], ["2020-12-01", 0.0]] | ["https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sobekhotep_III", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merneferre_Ay", "https://hu.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iuhetibu_Fendi", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minoan_eruption"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-08-05 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2290 |
<p>Soon after invading Ukraine, Russia put its nuclear forces on "special alert" (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60547473" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-business-europe-moscow-2e4e1cf784f22b6afbe5a2f936725550" target="_blank">AP</a>). A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (<a href="https://www.mass.gov/service-details/nuclear-regulatory-commission-nrc-fact-sheet-on-dirty-bombs" target="_blank">Mass.gov</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2022-08-05 | Before 5 August 2022, will Russia detonate a nuclear device outside of Russian territory or airspace? | 2022-03-03 | [["2022-03-04", 0.0], ["2022-03-04", 0.05], ["2022-03-04", 0.01], ["2022-03-04", 0.01], ["2022-03-04", 0.01], ["2022-03-04", 0.01], ["2022-03-04", 0.01], ["2022-03-04", 0.01], ["2022-03-04", 0.01], ["2022-03-04", 0.01], ["2022-03-04", 0.01], ["2022-03-04", 0.01], ["2022-03-04", 0.01], ["2022-03-05", 0.01], ["2022-03-05", 0.01], ["2022-03-05", 0.01], ["2022-03-05", 0.01], ["2022-03-05", 0.01], ["2022-03-05", 0.01], ["2022-03-05", 0.01], ["2022-03-05", 0.01], ["2022-03-05", 0.01], ["2022-03-05", 0.01], ["2022-03-05", 0.01], ["2022-03-05", 0.01], ["2022-03-05", 0.01], ["2022-03-05", 0.01], ["2022-03-06", 0.01], ["2022-03-06", 0.01], ["2022-03-06", 0.01], ["2022-03-06", 0.01], ["2022-03-06", 0.01], ["2022-03-06", 0.01], ["2022-03-06", 0.01], ["2022-03-06", 0.01], ["2022-03-06", 0.01], ["2022-03-06", 0.01], ["2022-03-07", 0.01], ["2022-03-07", 0.01], ["2022-03-07", 0.02], ["2022-03-07", 0.02], ["2022-03-07", 0.02], ["2022-03-07", 0.02], ["2022-03-07", 0.02], ["2022-03-07", 0.015], ["2022-03-07", 0.02], ["2022-03-07", 0.02], ["2022-03-07", 0.02], ["2022-03-07", 0.02], ["2022-03-07", 0.015], ["2022-03-07", 0.02], ["2022-03-07", 0.02], ["2022-03-07", 0.02], ["2022-03-07", 0.02], ["2022-03-07", 0.02], ["2022-03-08", 0.02], ["2022-03-08", 0.02], ["2022-03-08", 0.02], ["2022-03-08", 0.02], ["2022-03-08", 0.02], ["2022-03-08", 0.02], ["2022-03-08", 0.02], ["2022-03-08", 0.02], ["2022-03-08", 0.02], ["2022-03-08", 0.02], ["2022-03-09", 0.02], ["2022-03-09", 0.02], ["2022-03-09", 0.02], ["2022-03-09", 0.025], ["2022-03-09", 0.03], ["2022-03-09", 0.03], ["2022-03-09", 0.03], ["2022-03-09", 0.03], ["2022-03-09", 0.03], ["2022-03-09", 0.03], ["2022-03-10", 0.025], ["2022-03-10", 0.025], ["2022-03-10", 0.02], ["2022-03-10", 0.025], ["2022-03-10", 0.03], 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["https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-19/russia-will-not-use-nuclear-weapons-in-ukraine-lavrov-says", "https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/08/02/what-would-push-the-west-and-russia-to-nuclear-war", "https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-news-war-russia-putin-nuclear-live-latest-updates-12541713", "https://youtu.be/D_KUwMD0sU0?t=10", "https://www.chathamhouse.org/2014/04/too-close-comfort-cases-near-nuclear-use-and-options-policy", "https://www.rferl.org/a/putin-russia-nuclear-deterrant-forces-alert/31726441.html", "https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-10/serbians-vladimir-putin-cut-outs-during-pro-russia-ceremonies/101051660", "https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-nuclear-war-ukraine-west-b2137081.html", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/07/25/russia-gas-germany-nord-stream-gazprom/", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-vows-accelerate-unification-russia-151653985.html", "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/geopolitics-decanted-by-silverado/id1614010500?i=1000567783806", "https://thebulletin.org/2022/04/will-putin-go-nuclear-a-timeline-of-expert-comments/", "https://thebulletin.org/2022/04/siegfried-hecker-putin-has-destroyed-the-world-nuclear-order-how-should-the-democracies-respond/#post-heading", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-calls-finland-sweden-joining-nato-mistake-with-far-reaching-consequences-2022-05-16/", "https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/06/russia-ukraine-nuclear-weapon-us-response/661315/", "https://thebulletin.org/2022/06/has-the-russia-ukraine-war-blown-up-the-global-nuclear-order/", "https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-japan-asia-middle-east-14350d5bd6d036c68159d02c2db79698", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-counter-attacks-russian-forces-east-2022-05-16/", "https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/08/north-korea-kim-jong-un-third-nuclear-weapon-age/670993/", "https://dailyhistory.org/", "https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-04-20-22/h_690dbd243f102fe2df072b15ec736ae5", "https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-sauli-niinisto-cd1f994d0bb8a38fced938ce4c4ec28d", "https://irp.fas.org/agency/dod/jason/tactical.pdf", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azovstal_iron_and_steel_works#2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine", "https://mwi.usma.edu/would-russia-use-a-tactical-nuclear-weapon-in-ukraine/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-03-31 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2252 |
<p>Baseball club owners locked players out of their facilities after their collective bargaining agreement with the MLB Players Association expired on 1 December 2021, though negotiations between the parties continue (<a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/33111294/mlb-players-association-make-counteroffer-league-monday-meeting" target="_blank">ESPN</a>, <a href="https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-lockout-why-these-dates-should-serve-as-deadlines-for-full-spring-training-regular-opening-day-and-more/" target="_blank">CBS Sports</a>, <a href="https://d39ba378-ae47-4003-86d3-147e4fa6e51b.filesusr.com/ugd/b0a4c2_95883690627349e0a5203f61b93715b5.pdf" target="_blank">MLBPA</a>). As of 28 January 2022, the regular season was scheduled to begin on 31 March 2022 (<a href="https://www.mlb.com/schedule/2022-03-31" target="_blank">MLB</a>). Whether so-called replacement players are fielded is immaterial, and not all games must be played to count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-03-31 | Will Major League Baseball's (MLB's) Opening Day occur on 31 March 2022? | 2022-01-28 | [["2022-01-28", 0.03], ["2022-01-28", 0.515], ["2022-01-28", 1.0], ["2022-01-28", 0.8], ["2022-01-29", 0.9], ["2022-01-29", 0.95], ["2022-01-29", 1.0], ["2022-01-29", 0.95], ["2022-01-29", 0.9], ["2022-01-29", 0.85], ["2022-01-29", 0.9], ["2022-01-29", 0.9], ["2022-01-29", 0.9], ["2022-01-30", 0.9], ["2022-01-30", 0.95], ["2022-01-30", 0.95], ["2022-01-30", 0.95], ["2022-01-30", 1.0], ["2022-01-30", 1.0], ["2022-01-31", 0.95], ["2022-01-31", 0.99], ["2022-01-31", 0.945], ["2022-01-31", 0.99], ["2022-01-31", 0.99], ["2022-01-31", 0.945], ["2022-02-01", 0.84], ["2022-02-01", 0.82], ["2022-02-01", 0.87], ["2022-02-01", 0.84], ["2022-02-01", 0.82], ["2022-02-01", 0.8], ["2022-02-01", 0.81], ["2022-02-01", 0.81], ["2022-02-01", 0.8], ["2022-02-01", 0.775], ["2022-02-01", 0.8], 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["2022-03-31", 0.0]] | ["https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/33167564/nearly-two-months-mlb-lockout-to-worry-spring-training-opening-day", "https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/33322364/mlb-delays-start-spring-training-march-5-cba-negotiations-resume-monday", "https://www.foxnews.com/sports/mlb-players-reject-offer-deadline", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/manfred-and-the-mlb-owners-are-either-very-bad-at-their-jobs-or-are-lying/ar-AATC14w?ocid=entnewsntp", "https://apnews.com/article/mlb-business-sports-francisco-lindor-baseball-ab3204ddd54cc628af1d2c4858f56836", "https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mlbpa-second-straight-day-of-cba-talks", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/players-union-unimpressed-with-mlb-s-new-proposal-start-of-regular-season-in-jeopardy/ar-AATMj1X?ocid=entnewsntp", "https://www.mlb.com/news/cba-fan-faq", "https://www.twitter.com/feinsand", "https://www.athleticsnation.com/2022/2/9/22923829/mlb-lockout-negotiations-mlbpa-minimum-salary-arbitration", "https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/03/mlb-announces-postponement-of-games-through-april-14.html", "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-lockout-everything-to-know-about-baseballs-first-work-stoppage-since-1994-95/", "https://nypost.com/2022/02/11/mlb-players-growing-frustrated-by-lockout-negotiations/", "https://open.spotify.com/episode/4nsFtJkM09xJfz7h4EEyAI", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/02/19/mlb-lockout-negotiations-timeline-spring-training/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-paid_Major_League_Baseball_players#Salary_progression", "https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-revised-2022-regular-season-schedule", "https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/33362477/inside-self-inflicted-crisis-boiling-mlb-lockout-deadline-arrives", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_player_salaries_in_the_NHL#Top_20_salaries_in_the_NHL_since_1989", "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-lockout-ends-as-mlbpa-owners-reach-cba-agreement-five-takeaways-with-baseball-set-to-return/live/", "https://www.statista.com/statistics/193645/revenue-of-major-league-baseball-teams-in-2010/#:~:text=Major%20League%20Baseball%20(MLB)%2C,dollars%20in%20revenue%20in%202020", "https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/33260279/mlb-commissioner-rob-manfred-losing-games-lockout-disastrous-outcome", "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-lockout-why-spring-training-likely-wont-start-on-time-and-when-opening-day-would-be-in-serious-jeopardy/", "https://d39ba378-ae47-4003-86d3-147e4fa6e51b.filesusr.com/ugd/b0a4c2_95883690627349e0a5203f61b93715b5.pdf", "https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/mlb-lockout-timeline-union-makes-first-proposal-cancelations"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2020-09-26 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1685 |
<p>The National Basketball Association (NBA), which announced the suspension of the 2019-20 season on 11 March 2020 due to COVID-19, is planning to restart on 30 July 2020 (<a href="https://www.nba.com/article/2020/06/26/nba-nbpa-finalize-season-comeback-official-release" target="_blank">NBA</a>, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-nba-has-a-plan-to-restart-the-season-11591207131" target="_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 27 August 2020</span>: A postponement alone does not count as a cancellation unless and until a postponed game is canceled by the NBA.</span><span style="font-size: 10.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>
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gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-04-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2132 |
<p>The COVID-19 pandemic hit airlines particularly hard, with Emirates airline's total revenue for the fiscal/financial year (FY) 2020-21 declining 66% to AED 30.9 billion, or US$ 8.4 billion (<a href="https://www.emirates.com/media-centre/emirates-group-announces-2020-21-results/" target="_blank">Emirates</a>, <a href="https://cdn.ek.aero/downloads/ek/pdfs/report/annual_report_2021.pdf" target="_blank">Emirates - 2021 Annual Report</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2022 and the outcome determined using data reported in Emirates Group's (the airline's parent company) annual report for FY 2021-22, expected in the summer of 2022 (<a href="https://www.theemiratesgroup.com/" target="_blank">Emirates Group</a>). Emirate Group's FY 2021-22 runs from 1 April 2021 to 31 March 2022. For FY 2019-20, Emirates airline reported revenue of AED 91,972 million (<a href="https://cdn.ek.aero/downloads/ek/pdfs/report/annual_report_2021.pdf" target="_blank">Emirates - 2021 Annual Report</a>, see "Revenue and other operating income" on page 188).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-05-29 | Will Emirates airline revenues for FY 2021-22 reach at least 75% of FY 2019-20 revenues, or AED 68,979 million? | 2021-09-24 | [["2021-09-24", 0.0], ["2021-09-24", 0.5], ["2021-09-24", 0.5], ["2021-09-24", 1.0], ["2021-09-24", 1.0], ["2021-09-25", 1.0], ["2021-09-25", 0.95], ["2021-09-25", 0.9], ["2021-09-25", 0.95], ["2021-09-25", 1.0], ["2021-09-26", 1.0], ["2021-09-26", 1.0], ["2021-09-26", 1.0], ["2021-09-26", 1.0], ["2021-09-26", 1.0], ["2021-09-27", 1.0], ["2021-09-27", 0.98], ["2021-09-27", 0.96], ["2021-09-27", 0.96], ["2021-09-27", 0.93], ["2021-09-27", 0.9], ["2021-09-28", 0.85], ["2021-09-28", 0.85], ["2021-09-28", 0.85], ["2021-09-29", 0.85], ["2021-09-29", 0.85], ["2021-09-29", 0.765], ["2021-09-29", 0.62], ["2021-09-29", 0.61], ["2021-09-29", 0.62], ["2021-09-29", 0.61], ["2021-09-30", 0.61], ["2021-09-30", 0.635], ["2021-09-30", 0.66], ["2021-09-30", 0.685], ["2021-09-30", 0.685], ["2021-10-01", 0.685], ["2021-10-03", 0.71], ["2021-10-06", 0.71], ["2021-10-06", 0.71], ["2021-10-08", 0.73], ["2021-10-08", 0.72], ["2021-10-08", 0.715], ["2021-10-09", 0.735], ["2021-10-09", 0.745], ["2021-10-10", 0.75], ["2021-10-10", 0.75], ["2021-10-11", 0.75], ["2021-10-11", 0.75], ["2021-10-11", 0.75], ["2021-10-12", 0.75], ["2021-10-13", 0.75], ["2021-10-15", 0.75], ["2021-10-19", 0.75], ["2021-10-24", 0.75], ["2021-10-24", 0.75], ["2021-10-26", 0.75], ["2021-10-27", 0.75], ["2021-10-31", 0.75], ["2021-10-31", 0.775], ["2021-11-04", 0.81], ["2021-11-05", 0.825], ["2021-11-11", 0.785], ["2021-11-11", 0.785], ["2021-11-12", 0.75], ["2021-11-14", 0.75], ["2021-11-15", 0.75], ["2021-11-15", 0.75], ["2021-11-18", 0.68], ["2021-11-18", 0.68], ["2021-11-18", 0.68], ["2021-11-24", 0.68], ["2021-11-26", 0.68], ["2021-11-26", 0.61], ["2021-11-26", 0.6], ["2021-11-26", 0.6], ["2021-11-28", 0.6], ["2021-11-29", 0.57], ["2021-11-29", 0.55], ["2021-11-30", 0.55], ["2021-11-30", 0.55], ["2021-11-30", 0.55], ["2021-12-01", 0.55], ["2021-12-06", 0.535], ["2021-12-06", 0.53], ["2021-12-06", 0.53], ["2021-12-07", 0.53], ["2021-12-10", 0.53], ["2021-12-12", 0.545], ["2021-12-13", 0.545], ["2021-12-13", 0.55], ["2021-12-15", 0.55], ["2021-12-18", 0.555], ["2021-12-20", 0.555], ["2021-12-22", 0.555], ["2021-12-23", 0.555], ["2021-12-23", 0.555], ["2021-12-23", 0.545], ["2021-12-25", 0.545], ["2021-12-29", 0.525], ["2021-12-31", 0.525], ["2022-01-01", 0.53], ["2022-01-01", 0.53], ["2022-01-02", 0.53], ["2022-01-02", 0.53], ["2022-01-04", 0.53], ["2022-01-04", 0.535], ["2022-01-05", 0.535], ["2022-01-06", 0.535], ["2022-01-06", 0.535], ["2022-01-07", 0.535], ["2022-01-07", 0.535], ["2022-01-07", 0.535], ["2022-01-08", 0.535], ["2022-01-08", 0.535], ["2022-01-09", 0.535], ["2022-01-09", 0.535], ["2022-01-09", 0.54], ["2022-01-10", 0.54], ["2022-01-11", 0.54], ["2022-01-13", 0.54], ["2022-01-14", 0.54], ["2022-01-18", 0.54], ["2022-01-19", 0.54], ["2022-01-19", 0.54], ["2022-01-19", 0.53], ["2022-01-20", 0.53], ["2022-01-20", 0.53], ["2022-01-20", 0.53], ["2022-01-21", 0.53], ["2022-01-21", 0.53], ["2022-01-22", 0.53], ["2022-01-23", 0.53], ["2022-01-23", 0.53], ["2022-01-23", 0.53], ["2022-01-24", 0.53], ["2022-01-24", 0.53], ["2022-01-24", 0.5], ["2022-01-25", 0.5], ["2022-01-25", 0.5], ["2022-01-25", 0.5], ["2022-01-25", 0.5], ["2022-01-26", 0.5], ["2022-01-27", 0.5], ["2022-01-27", 0.5], ["2022-01-27", 0.5], ["2022-01-28", 0.5], ["2022-01-29", 0.5], ["2022-01-29", 0.5], ["2022-01-29", 0.5], ["2022-01-30", 0.49], ["2022-01-31", 0.43], ["2022-01-31", 0.425], ["2022-01-31", 0.4], ["2022-02-01", 0.405], ["2022-02-01", 0.405], ["2022-02-02", 0.41], ["2022-02-02", 0.41], ["2022-02-03", 0.405], ["2022-02-04", 0.4], ["2022-02-05", 0.405], ["2022-02-06", 0.405], ["2022-02-06", 0.32], ["2022-02-06", 0.315], ["2022-02-07", 0.315], ["2022-02-07", 0.16], ["2022-02-07", 0.115], ["2022-02-07", 0.06], ["2022-02-07", 0.05], ["2022-02-07", 0.05], ["2022-02-07", 0.05], ["2022-02-07", 0.05], ["2022-02-07", 0.05], ["2022-02-07", 0.035], ["2022-02-07", 0.035], ["2022-02-08", 0.035], ["2022-02-08", 0.02], ["2022-02-08", 0.035], ["2022-02-08", 0.05], ["2022-02-08", 0.05], ["2022-02-09", 0.03], ["2022-02-09", 0.02], ["2022-02-09", 0.02], ["2022-02-09", 0.02], ["2022-02-09", 0.02], ["2022-02-10", 0.02], ["2022-02-11", 0.02], ["2022-02-11", 0.02], ["2022-02-12", 0.02], ["2022-02-13", 0.02], ["2022-02-13", 0.02], ["2022-02-13", 0.01], ["2022-02-13", 0.01], ["2022-02-16", 0.01], ["2022-02-18", 0.01], ["2022-02-25", 0.01], ["2022-02-28", 0.01], ["2022-02-28", 0.01], ["2022-03-02", 0.01], ["2022-03-04", 0.01], ["2022-03-08", 0.01], ["2022-03-09", 0.01], ["2022-03-09", 0.01], ["2022-03-10", 0.01], ["2022-03-11", 0.01], ["2022-03-11", 0.01], ["2022-03-13", 0.01], ["2022-03-14", 0.0], ["2022-03-15", 0.0], ["2022-03-16", 0.0], ["2022-03-16", 0.0], ["2022-03-17", 0.0], ["2022-03-18", 0.0], ["2022-03-20", 0.0], ["2022-03-25", 0.0], ["2022-03-25", 0.0], ["2022-03-25", 0.0], ["2022-03-29", 0.0], ["2022-03-29", 0.0], ["2022-04-01", 0.0]] | ["https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1353199", "https://www.emirates.com/media-centre/emirates-group-announces-half-year-performance-for-2021-22/", "https://investor-relations.lufthansagroup.com/fileadmin/downloads/en/charts-speeches/LH-QR-2021-3-charts.pdf", "https://www.emirates.com/media-centre/emirates-group-announces-half-year-performance-for-2019-20-with-aed-12-billion-profit-79-increase-in-passengers-carried-to-dubai/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1353723", "https://www.emirates.com/media-centre/emirates-group-announces-2020-21-results/", "https://investor-relations.lufthansagroup.com/fileadmin/downloads/en/charts-speeches/LH-QR-2021-2-charts.pdf", "https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/061521-emirates-expects-patchy-recovery-after-passenger-numbers-decline-88-in-2020-21", "https://investor-relations.lufthansagroup.com/fileadmin/downloads/en/financial-reports/annual-reports/LH-AR-2019-e.pdf", "https://www.enca.com/business/dubai-airport-passenger-volumes-slump", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1347939", "https://www.emirates.com/media-centre/emirates-group-announces-half-year-performance-for-2020-21/", "https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/aviation/2021/08/11/dubai-airports-expects-significant-rebound-in-passenger-numbers-ceo-says/", "https://www.emirates.com/media-centre/emirates-group-announces-2020-21-results", "https://www.khaleejtimes.com/news/india-uae-flights-passenger-traffic-improves-since-lifting-of-restrictions", "https://www.emirates.com/media-centre/emirates-group-announces-2019-20-results/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1337921", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-08-31/will-business-travel-come-back-data-show-air-hotel-travel-forever-changed?sref=wUBMASPo", "https://www.zawya.com/mena/en/economy/story/Dubaibased_Emirates_to_recruit_additional_6000_employees-ZAWYA20211025103618/", "https://www.emirates.com/media-centre/emirates-group-announces-2018-19-results/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1390151", "https://gulfbusiness.com/dubais-emirates-group-reports-1-6bn-half-year-net-loss/", "https://www.icao.int/sustainability/Documents/Covid-19/ICAO_coronavirus_Econ_Impact.pdf", "https://simpleflying.com/emirates-triples-summer-passengers/", "https://centreforaviation.com/news/emirates-group-revenue-up-81-in-h1fy2022-1102208"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2020 |
<p>The COVID-19 pandemic has hit the US labor market hard, though it has been recovering (<a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/04/14/u-s-labor-market-inches-back-from-the-covid-19-shock-but-recovery-is-far-from-complete/" target="_blank">Pew Research</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/archive-e81b08cff90641cb99f50a14588ffe2e" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/stimulus-coronavirus-fears-labor-market-shortage" target="_blank">Fox Business</a>). The outcome will be determined using monthly data as first reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (<a href="https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm" target="_blank">BLS</a>). Revisions to data would be immaterial. For December 2020, the BLS reported a US civilian labor force participation rate of 61.5% (<a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_01082021.htm" target="_blank">BLS Employment Situation Release - December 2020</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-01-07 | Will the US civilian labor force participation rate reach or exceed 63.0% for any month in 2021? | 2021-05-27 | [["2021-05-28", 0.15], ["2021-05-28", 0.475], ["2021-05-28", 0.8], ["2021-05-28", 0.88], ["2021-05-28", 0.96], ["2021-05-28", 0.88], ["2021-05-28", 0.96], ["2021-05-28", 0.98], ["2021-05-29", 0.98], ["2021-05-29", 0.97], ["2021-05-29", 0.96], ["2021-05-29", 0.97], ["2021-05-29", 0.96], ["2021-05-29", 0.96], ["2021-05-29", 0.93], ["2021-05-29", 0.94], ["2021-05-29", 0.94], ["2021-05-29", 0.9], ["2021-05-29", 0.85], ["2021-05-30", 0.8], ["2021-05-30", 0.8], ["2021-05-30", 0.8], ["2021-05-30", 0.8], ["2021-05-30", 0.8], ["2021-05-30", 0.7], ["2021-05-30", 0.6], ["2021-05-30", 0.6], ["2021-05-31", 0.6], ["2021-05-31", 0.6], ["2021-05-31", 0.6], ["2021-05-31", 0.6], ["2021-06-01", 0.43], ["2021-06-01", 0.365], ["2021-06-01", 0.43], ["2021-06-01", 0.3], ["2021-06-01", 0.3], ["2021-06-01", 0.3], ["2021-06-01", 0.3], ["2021-06-01", 0.275], ["2021-06-02", 0.3], ["2021-06-02", 0.2], ["2021-06-02", 0.225], ["2021-06-02", 0.25], ["2021-06-02", 0.275], ["2021-06-02", 0.25], ["2021-06-02", 0.275], ["2021-06-02", 0.225], ["2021-06-02", 0.225], ["2021-06-03", 0.2], ["2021-06-03", 0.2], ["2021-06-03", 0.2], ["2021-06-03", 0.2], ["2021-06-03", 0.2], ["2021-06-03", 0.2], ["2021-06-03", 0.2], ["2021-06-03", 0.2], ["2021-06-04", 0.2], ["2021-06-04", 0.175], ["2021-06-04", 0.175], ["2021-06-04", 0.15], ["2021-06-04", 0.175], ["2021-06-04", 0.2], ["2021-06-04", 0.2], ["2021-06-04", 0.2], ["2021-06-05", 0.15], ["2021-06-05", 0.15], ["2021-06-06", 0.15], ["2021-06-06", 0.15], ["2021-06-06", 0.15], ["2021-06-06", 0.15], ["2021-06-07", 0.15], ["2021-06-07", 0.15], ["2021-06-08", 0.15], ["2021-06-08", 0.15], ["2021-06-08", 0.15], ["2021-06-08", 0.15], ["2021-06-08", 0.15], ["2021-06-08", 0.15], ["2021-06-08", 0.15], ["2021-06-08", 0.15], ["2021-06-08", 0.15], ["2021-06-09", 0.15], ["2021-06-09", 0.15], ["2021-06-09", 0.15], ["2021-06-09", 0.15], ["2021-06-09", 0.15], ["2021-06-10", 0.15], ["2021-06-10", 0.15], ["2021-06-10", 0.15], ["2021-06-10", 0.15], ["2021-06-11", 0.15], ["2021-06-11", 0.15], ["2021-06-11", 0.15], ["2021-06-11", 0.15], ["2021-06-12", 0.15], ["2021-06-13", 0.15], ["2021-06-14", 0.15], ["2021-06-14", 0.15], ["2021-06-14", 0.15], ["2021-06-14", 0.15], ["2021-06-15", 0.14], ["2021-06-15", 0.14], ["2021-06-15", 0.15], ["2021-06-16", 0.15], ["2021-06-16", 0.165], ["2021-06-17", 0.165], ["2021-06-17", 0.165], ["2021-06-17", 0.165], ["2021-06-17", 0.15], ["2021-06-18", 0.15], ["2021-06-18", 0.18], ["2021-06-19", 0.15], ["2021-06-19", 0.14], ["2021-06-20", 0.125], ["2021-06-20", 0.125], ["2021-06-21", 0.125], ["2021-06-21", 0.125], ["2021-06-23", 0.125], ["2021-06-23", 0.14], ["2021-06-24", 0.13], ["2021-06-24", 0.13], ["2021-06-25", 0.13], ["2021-06-27", 0.12], ["2021-06-27", 0.12], ["2021-06-28", 0.12], ["2021-06-29", 0.12], ["2021-06-29", 0.12], ["2021-07-01", 0.12], ["2021-07-01", 0.12], ["2021-07-01", 0.12], ["2021-07-02", 0.12], ["2021-07-02", 0.115], ["2021-07-02", 0.105], ["2021-07-02", 0.1], ["2021-07-03", 0.105], ["2021-07-03", 0.1], ["2021-07-03", 0.1], ["2021-07-04", 0.09], ["2021-07-04", 0.075], ["2021-07-04", 0.075], ["2021-07-04", 0.075], ["2021-07-05", 0.09], ["2021-07-06", 0.08], ["2021-07-06", 0.1], ["2021-07-06", 0.1], ["2021-07-08", 0.1], ["2021-07-08", 0.07], ["2021-07-09", 0.07], ["2021-07-09", 0.07], ["2021-07-11", 0.07], ["2021-07-12", 0.07], ["2021-07-12", 0.07], ["2021-07-12", 0.07], ["2021-07-13", 0.07], ["2021-07-13", 0.07], ["2021-07-14", 0.07], ["2021-07-15", 0.07], ["2021-07-15", 0.07], ["2021-07-15", 0.07], ["2021-07-16", 0.07], ["2021-07-16", 0.07], ["2021-07-17", 0.07], ["2021-07-17", 0.07], ["2021-07-18", 0.07], ["2021-07-18", 0.07], ["2021-07-19", 0.07], ["2021-07-20", 0.07], ["2021-07-21", 0.07], ["2021-07-22", 0.07], ["2021-07-23", 0.07], ["2021-07-23", 0.07], ["2021-07-24", 0.07], ["2021-07-26", 0.07], ["2021-07-27", 0.07], ["2021-07-27", 0.07], ["2021-07-29", 0.07], ["2021-07-29", 0.07], ["2021-07-29", 0.07], ["2021-07-30", 0.07], ["2021-07-31", 0.06], ["2021-08-02", 0.05], ["2021-08-02", 0.05], ["2021-08-02", 0.05], ["2021-08-03", 0.045], ["2021-08-03", 0.04], ["2021-08-03", 0.04], ["2021-08-03", 0.04], ["2021-08-03", 0.04], ["2021-08-04", 0.04], ["2021-08-04", 0.035], ["2021-08-05", 0.035], ["2021-08-06", 0.03], ["2021-08-06", 0.03], ["2021-08-06", 0.025], ["2021-08-07", 0.025], ["2021-08-08", 0.025], ["2021-08-09", 0.025], ["2021-08-10", 0.025], ["2021-08-11", 0.025], ["2021-08-11", 0.02], ["2021-08-11", 0.02], ["2021-08-12", 0.02], ["2021-08-12", 0.015], ["2021-08-12", 0.015], ["2021-08-13", 0.015], ["2021-08-14", 0.015], ["2021-08-15", 0.015], ["2021-08-16", 0.01], ["2021-08-17", 0.015], ["2021-08-19", 0.01], ["2021-08-20", 0.01], ["2021-08-20", 0.01], ["2021-08-20", 0.01], ["2021-08-21", 0.01], ["2021-08-23", 0.01], ["2021-08-25", 0.01], ["2021-08-27", 0.01], ["2021-08-28", 0.01], ["2021-08-28", 0.01], ["2021-08-28", 0.01], ["2021-08-31", 0.01], ["2021-09-01", 0.01], ["2021-09-02", 0.01], ["2021-09-03", 0.01], ["2021-09-03", 0.01], ["2021-09-06", 0.01], ["2021-09-06", 0.01], ["2021-09-06", 0.01], ["2021-09-07", 0.01], ["2021-09-07", 0.01], ["2021-09-10", 0.01], ["2021-09-10", 0.01], ["2021-09-10", 0.01], ["2021-09-11", 0.01], ["2021-09-11", 0.01], ["2021-09-12", 0.01], ["2021-09-13", 0.01], ["2021-09-13", 0.01], ["2021-09-14", 0.01], ["2021-09-17", 0.01], ["2021-09-18", 0.005], ["2021-09-20", 0.005], ["2021-09-20", 0.01], ["2021-09-22", 0.01], ["2021-09-24", 0.01], ["2021-09-25", 0.005], ["2021-09-26", 0.005], ["2021-09-26", 0.005], ["2021-09-27", 0.005], ["2021-09-27", 0.0], ["2021-09-28", 0.0], ["2021-09-28", 0.005], ["2021-09-28", 0.0], ["2021-09-29", 0.0], ["2021-09-29", 0.0], ["2021-10-02", 0.0], ["2021-10-02", 0.0], ["2021-10-03", 0.0], ["2021-10-04", 0.0], ["2021-10-04", 0.0], ["2021-10-04", 0.0], ["2021-10-06", 0.0], ["2021-10-08", 0.0], ["2021-10-08", 0.0], ["2021-10-09", 0.0], ["2021-10-10", 0.0], ["2021-10-13", 0.0], ["2021-10-14", 0.0], ["2021-10-14", 0.0], ["2021-10-14", 0.0], ["2021-10-15", 0.0], ["2021-10-15", 0.0], ["2021-10-15", 0.0], ["2021-10-15", 0.0], ["2021-10-18", 0.0], ["2021-10-19", 0.0], ["2021-10-21", 0.0], ["2021-10-24", 0.0], ["2021-10-25", 0.0], ["2021-11-04", 0.0], ["2021-11-04", 0.0], ["2021-11-04", 0.0], ["2021-11-05", 0.0], ["2021-11-06", 0.0], ["2021-11-07", 0.0], ["2021-11-08", 0.0], ["2021-11-09", 0.0], ["2021-11-09", 0.0], ["2021-11-10", 0.0], ["2021-11-10", 0.0], ["2021-11-11", 0.0], ["2021-11-13", 0.0], ["2021-11-15", 0.0], ["2021-11-17", 0.0], ["2021-11-18", 0.0], ["2021-11-19", 0.0], ["2021-11-19", 0.0], ["2021-11-19", 0.0], ["2021-11-20", 0.0], ["2021-11-20", 0.0], ["2021-11-21", 0.0], ["2021-11-22", 0.0], ["2021-11-23", 0.0], ["2021-11-23", 0.0], ["2021-11-24", 0.0], ["2021-11-30", 0.0], ["2021-11-30", 0.0], ["2021-11-30", 0.0], ["2021-12-01", 0.0], ["2021-12-01", 0.0], ["2021-12-01", 0.0], ["2021-12-01", 0.0], ["2021-12-01", 0.0], ["2021-12-02", 0.0], ["2021-12-03", 0.0], ["2021-12-03", 0.0], ["2021-12-03", 0.0], ["2021-12-04", 0.0], ["2021-12-06", 0.0], ["2021-12-06", 0.0], ["2021-12-07", 0.0], ["2021-12-08", 0.0], ["2021-12-09", 0.0], ["2021-12-09", 0.0], ["2021-12-11", 0.0], ["2021-12-13", 0.0], ["2021-12-13", 0.0], ["2021-12-20", 0.0], ["2021-12-20", 0.0], ["2021-12-20", 0.0], ["2021-12-21", 0.0], ["2021-12-21", 0.0], ["2021-12-22", 0.0], ["2021-12-23", 0.0], ["2021-12-24", 0.0], ["2021-12-26", 0.0], ["2021-12-27", 0.0], ["2021-12-29", 0.0], ["2021-12-29", 0.0], ["2021-12-29", 0.0], ["2021-12-30", 0.0], ["2021-12-31", 0.0], ["2022-01-01", 0.0]] | ["https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/labor-force-participation-rate", "http://www.lmtonline.com/insider/article/Unemployment-rises-in-Laredo-16373858.php&ved=2ahUKEwiDtL-8oqnyAhUuSPEDHfHfBqQQxfQBMAN6BAgJEAM&usg=AOvVaw3-O-T7SOL7nGDFeE-mZu2n", "https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/less-two-weeks-millions-americans-set-lose-unemployment-benefits", "https://www.eater.com/22417344/restaurant-labor-shortage-covid-19-unemployment-benefits-risks", "https://pulse.ncpolicywatch.org/2021/08/08/about-that-labor-shortage-look-to-wave-of-retirements-not-government-aid-to-understand/", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CNP16OV", "https://www.aarp.org/work/working-at-50-plus/info-2021/pandemic-workers-early-retirement.html", "https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/persons-not-in-the-labor-force-who-want-a-job.htm#", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART", "https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm", "https://www.brookings.edu/research/what-the-2020-census-will-reveal-about-america-stagnating-growth-an-aging-population-and-youthful-diversity/", "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-03/early-retirement-surge-exacerbates-u-s-baby-boomer-inequalities#:~:text=The%20surge%20in%20early%20retirements,market%20prematurely%2C%20a%20study%20showed", "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2020-will-the-us-civilian-labor-force-participation-rate-reach-or-exceed-63-0-for-any-month-in-2021/www.lmtonline.com/insider/article/Unemployment-rises-in-Laredo-16373858.php&ved=2ahUKEwiDtL-8oqnyAhUuSPEDHfHfBqQQxfQBMAN6BAgJEAM&usg=AOvVaw3-O-T7SOL7nGDFeE-mZu2n", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE", "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CLF16OV", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/15/business/economy/labor-force-dropouts.html", "https://www.marketplace.org/2021/05/12/retirements-increased-during-the-pandemic-reversing-a-trend/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2850 | <p>The "misery index," or the unemployment rate plus the rate of inflation, is a measure of economic hardship first used in the US in the 1970s (<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/miseryindex.asp" target="_blank">Investopedia - Misery Index</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2024 if still open and the outcome determined using unemployment rate and inflation rate data for "Euro area – 20 countries (from 2023)" as reported by Eurostat (<a href="https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/une_rt_m/default/table?lang=en" target="_blank">Eurostat - Unemployment</a>, <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_manr/default/table?lang=en" target="_blank">Eurostat - Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP)</a>). The highest level reached since 2018 was 17.3% in October 2022 (unemployment rate at 6.7% + inflation at 10.6%). Revisions to data after they are published would be immaterial.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Will the value of the "misery index" for the eurozone reach or exceed 17.5% for any month in 2023 or 2024? | 2023-04-13 | [["2023-04-13", 1.0], ["2023-04-13", 0.6], ["2023-04-13", 0.73], ["2023-04-13", 0.7975], ["2023-04-14", 0.638], ["2023-04-14", 0.5317], ["2023-04-14", 0.4557], ["2023-04-14", 0.4729], ["2023-04-14", 0.445], ["2023-04-14", 0.4322], ["2023-04-14", 0.4311], ["2023-04-14", 0.468], ["2023-04-14", 0.466], ["2023-04-15", 0.466], ["2023-04-15", 0.4782], ["2023-04-15", 0.44], ["2023-04-15", 0.4392], ["2023-04-15", 0.4362], ["2023-04-16", 0.4193], ["2023-04-16", 0.4147], ["2023-04-16", 0.4133], ["2023-04-16", 0.414], ["2023-04-17", 0.474], ["2023-04-17", 0.409], ["2023-04-17", 0.42], ["2023-04-17", 0.3355], ["2023-04-17", 0.32], ["2023-04-18", 0.2227], ["2023-04-19", 0.2509], ["2023-04-19", 0.2536], ["2023-04-19", 0.269], ["2023-04-19", 0.268], ["2023-04-19", 0.2527], ["2023-04-19", 0.2727], ["2023-04-19", 0.2833], ["2023-04-19", 0.2808], ["2023-04-20", 0.2607], ["2023-04-20", 0.2769], ["2023-04-20", 0.2515], ["2023-04-21", 0.2654], ["2023-04-21", 0.3036], ["2023-04-21", 0.3433], ["2023-04-21", 0.3433], ["2023-04-21", 0.3406], ["2023-04-23", 0.3257], ["2023-04-28", 0.3386], ["2023-05-01", 0.3079], ["2023-05-02", 0.2907], ["2023-05-02", 0.2921], ["2023-05-08", 0.2979], ["2023-05-09", 0.3207], ["2023-05-11", 0.3221], ["2023-05-14", 0.3036], ["2023-05-17", 0.3029], ["2023-05-18", 0.2914], ["2023-05-20", 0.2914], ["2023-05-26", 0.2821], ["2023-05-30", 0.2964], ["2023-05-31", 0.2933], ["2023-05-31", 0.2933], ["2023-06-01", 0.2967], ["2023-06-01", 0.2833], ["2023-06-02", 0.2833], ["2023-06-03", 0.28], ["2023-06-03", 0.278], ["2023-06-04", 0.2647], ["2023-06-04", 0.2213], ["2023-06-10", 0.2207], ["2023-06-12", 0.2107], ["2023-06-14", 0.21], ["2023-06-16", 0.2075], ["2023-06-19", 0.2044], ["2023-06-20", 0.19], ["2023-06-20", 0.1894], ["2023-06-21", 0.1894], ["2023-06-24", 0.1831], ["2023-06-25", 0.1544], ["2023-06-26", 0.1519], ["2023-06-26", 0.1506], ["2023-06-28", 0.1506], ["2023-06-30", 0.1475], ["2023-07-02", 0.1419], ["2023-07-02", 0.1353], ["2023-07-09", 0.1235], ["2023-07-09", 0.1194], ["2023-07-10", 0.1306], ["2023-07-10", 0.1628], ["2023-07-10", 0.1483], ["2023-07-12", 0.14], ["2023-07-12", 0.1367], ["2023-07-12", 0.1256], ["2023-07-12", 0.1239], ["2023-07-12", 0.1211], ["2023-07-13", 0.1156], ["2023-07-14", 0.1172], ["2023-07-15", 0.1156], ["2023-07-17", 0.1222], ["2023-07-19", 0.1167], ["2023-07-19", 0.11], ["2023-07-20", 0.1072], ["2023-07-25", 0.1067], ["2023-07-25", 0.1056], ["2023-07-26", 0.1028], ["2023-07-29", 0.1044], ["2023-08-02", 0.1067], ["2023-08-05", 0.1061], ["2023-08-08", 0.1061], ["2023-08-08", 0.1044], ["2023-08-11", 0.1044], ["2023-08-16", 0.1], ["2023-08-17", 0.0972], ["2023-08-20", 0.0961], ["2023-08-24", 0.0956], ["2023-08-29", 0.0956], ["2023-09-01", 0.0956], ["2023-09-01", 0.095], ["2023-09-06", 0.0937], ["2023-09-06", 0.09], ["2023-09-06", 0.0889], ["2023-09-10", 0.0847], ["2023-09-13", 0.0847], ["2023-09-18", 0.0842], ["2023-09-18", 0.0837], ["2023-09-19", 0.0837], ["2023-09-20", 0.0837], ["2023-09-23", 0.1195], ["2023-09-23", 0.0668], ["2023-09-25", 0.06], ["2023-09-28", 0.06], ["2023-09-28", 0.0732], ["2023-09-30", 0.0732], ["2023-10-02", 0.0721], ["2023-10-03", 0.0716], ["2023-10-04", 0.07], ["2023-10-04", 0.0663], ["2023-10-06", 0.0658], ["2023-10-10", 0.0668], ["2023-10-12", 0.0668], ["2023-10-12", 0.1095], ["2023-10-18", 0.1095], ["2023-10-19", 0.1089], ["2023-10-22", 0.1068], ["2023-10-22", 0.1063], ["2023-10-24", 0.1063], ["2023-10-25", 0.1063], ["2023-10-27", 0.1], ["2023-10-28", 0.1005], ["2023-10-31", 0.0995], ["2023-11-02", 0.0984], ["2023-11-02", 0.0979], ["2023-11-02", 0.0979], ["2023-11-06", 0.0979], ["2023-11-07", 0.0984], ["2023-11-09", 0.0974], ["2023-11-13", 0.0968], ["2023-11-19", 0.0968], ["2023-11-19", 0.0963], ["2023-11-21", 0.0958], ["2023-11-21", 0.0953], ["2023-11-22", 0.0947], ["2023-11-24", 0.0947], ["2023-11-25", 0.0947], ["2023-11-25", 0.0937], ["2023-11-30", 0.0932], ["2023-12-02", 0.09], ["2023-12-03", 0.0895], ["2023-12-06", 0.0889], ["2023-12-06", 0.0884], ["2023-12-07", 0.0879], ["2023-12-13", 0.0905], ["2023-12-14", 0.0895], ["2023-12-15", 0.0855], ["2023-12-17", 0.0835], ["2023-12-18", 0.0775], ["2023-12-18", 0.071], ["2023-12-20", 0.0735], ["2023-12-26", 0.073], ["2023-12-27", 0.122], ["2023-12-27", 0.122], ["2023-12-28", 0.117], ["2024-01-01", 0.113], ["2024-01-02", 0.1135], ["2024-01-02", 0.1135], ["2024-01-02", 0.113], ["2024-01-02", 0.114], ["2024-01-03", 0.114], ["2024-01-04", 0.114], ["2024-01-06", 0.11], ["2024-01-09", 0.1035], ["2024-01-12", 0.1035]] | ["https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dtY5f5BkfT33GRTwGtcC689VNktjqyKuY_lrpY5bSi0/edit?usp=sharing", "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dtY5f5BkfT33GRTwGtcC689VNktjqyKuY_lrpY5bSi0/edit#gid=0", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/euro-zone-inflation-drops-lowest-over-two-years-2023-10-31/", "https://commission.europa.eu/news/inflation-forecast-drop-further-and-eu-economy-show-modest-upturn-2023-11-15_en#:~:text=Overall%2C%20a%20rebound%20in%20growth,10.6%25%20peak%20a%20year%20ago", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/31/business/europe-economy-q3-gdp-recession-risk/index.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021%E2%80%932023_inflation_surge"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | 2020-08-05 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1688 |
<p>The outcome will be determined using "All polls" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's "How Popular Is Donald Trump" page (<a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/" target="_blank">FiveThirtyEight</a>). On 1 July 2020, Trump's approval rating was 40.5%.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? </span><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 20 July 2020</span>: The outcome will be determined using the "Approve" percentage for 5 August 2020 to be retrieved at approximately 9AM ET on 6 August 2020.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p>
</p>
| 2020-08-06 | Will President Trump's approval rating be lower on 5 August 2020 than it was on 1 July 2020, according to FiveThirtyEight? | 2020-07-07 | [["2020-07-07", 0.75], ["2020-07-07", 0.685], ["2020-07-07", 0.75], ["2020-07-07", 0.85], ["2020-07-07", 0.85], ["2020-07-07", 0.89], ["2020-07-07", 0.865], ["2020-07-07", 0.865], ["2020-07-07", 0.85], ["2020-07-07", 0.83], ["2020-07-07", 0.76], ["2020-07-07", 0.79], ["2020-07-07", 0.76], ["2020-07-07", 0.77], ["2020-07-07", 0.825], ["2020-07-07", 0.735], ["2020-07-08", 0.8], ["2020-07-08", 0.825], ["2020-07-08", 0.84], ["2020-07-08", 0.65], ["2020-07-08", 0.75], ["2020-07-08", 0.775], ["2020-07-08", 0.625], ["2020-07-08", 0.59], ["2020-07-08", 0.65], ["2020-07-08", 0.725], ["2020-07-08", 0.7], ["2020-07-08", 0.675], ["2020-07-08", 0.7], ["2020-07-08", 0.675], ["2020-07-08", 0.675], ["2020-07-08", 0.7], ["2020-07-08", 0.7], ["2020-07-09", 0.7], ["2020-07-09", 0.7], ["2020-07-09", 0.75], ["2020-07-09", 0.75], ["2020-07-09", 0.75], 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["2020-08-05", 0.02]] | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilhelm_II,_German_Emperor#Life_in_exile", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Adolf_Hitler", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Napoleon#Exile_on_Saint_Helena"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1655 |
<p>The four officers involved in the 25 May 2020 death of George Floyd while in Minneapolis police custody are facing various state charges, and U.S. Attorney General William Barr has also announced a federal civil rights investigation into Floyd’s death (<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/03/us/george-floyd-officers-charges/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/officers-charged-floyds-death-make-1st-court-appearance/story?id=71066710" target="_blank">ABC News</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/29/william-barr-federal-probe-george-floyd-death-289747" target="_blank">Politico</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-01-04 | Before 1 January 2021, will federal criminal charges be filed against any of the Minneapolis police officers involved in the death of George Floyd? | 2020-06-12 | [["2020-06-12", 0.925], ["2020-06-12", 1.0], ["2020-06-12", 0.95], ["2020-06-12", 0.925], ["2020-06-12", 0.88], ["2020-06-12", 0.925], ["2020-06-12", 0.925], ["2020-06-12", 0.845], ["2020-06-12", 0.945], ["2020-06-12", 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True | 2023-04-07 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2575 |
<p>Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko accused Ukraine of provocations due to the latter's deployment of troops to the border (<a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-10-04/belaruss-lukashenko-accuses-ukraine-of-border-provocations" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>). While Russia staged its invasion of Ukraine in part from Belarus, Lukashenko insists that its armed forces have not engaged in armed fighting (<a href="https://eng.belta.by/president/view/lukashenko-confirms-belarus-participation-in-russias-military-operation-in-ukraine-with-provisos-153559-2022/" target="_blank">BELTA</a>). For the purposes of this question, "Ukraine" includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea. The participation and the announcement/acknowledgement would both have to occur during the question's open period to count. Acknowledging that members of the Belarusian armed forces may have volunteered to fight under Russian or Ukrainian command in a Russian or Ukrainian military unit would not count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 5 December 2022</span>: If members of Belarusian armed forces are placed under Russian military command by the Belarusian government and those Belarusian troops are publicly acknowledged by the government of Belarus to be fighting in Ukraine, that would count.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>
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["https://mfa.gov.by/en/bilateral/russia/#:~:text=Traditionally%2C%20Russia%20is%20both%20our,of%20the%20Republic%20of%20Belarus", "http://belarus%20opposition%20says%20it%20damaged%20russian%20warplane/", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/1/china-belarus-presidents-call-for-ukraine-cease-fire-talks", "https://www.thedailybeast.com/lukashenko-worries-hes-upset-putin-by-inviting-biden-to-belarus", "https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/missile-hits-poland-after-crossing-ukraine-border-reports", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-64809777", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64664560Links", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/13/russia-warns-belarus-may-enter-ukraine-war-if-invaded", "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-news-russia-war-belarus-invasion-preparation/", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/07/belarus-putin-lukashenko-russia-ukraine-war/", "https://eng.belta.by/president/view/lukashenko-confirms-belarus-participation-in-russias-military-operation-in-ukraine-with-provisos-153559-2022/", "https://eng.belta.by/president/view/lukashenko-confirms-belarus-participation-in-russias-military-operation-in-ukraine-with-provisos-153559-2022/Links", "https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-10-04/belaruss-lukashenko-accuses-ukraine-of-border-provocations", "https://carnegiemoscow.org/commentary/85944", "https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/03/31/lukashenko-urges-truce-in-ukraine-and-talks-without-preconditions-a80673", "https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-736032", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64664560", "https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/large-scorch-mark-at-belarus-base-after-mysterious-explosions", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-SoqX8YRJb4", "https://thehill.com/policy/international/3878974-china-belarus-call-for-cease-fire-negotiations-in-ukraine/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/16/alexander-lukashenko-warning-war-ukraine/", "https://ecfr.eu/article/putins-last-ally-why-the-belarusian-army-cannot-help-russia-in-ukraine/", "https://www.ft.com/content/4351d5b0-0888-4b47-9368-6bc4dfbccbf5Links", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/16/europe/belarus-ukraine-troops-russia-border-intl/index.html", "https://www.reuters.com/world/satellite-images-show-troop-deployment-belarus-border-with-ukraine-ahead-russian-2022-02-06/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2024-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2743 |
<p>Construction began on the Barakah Nuclear Energy Plant in 2012, with two of its four reactors having already begun commercial operations (<a href="https://www.enec.gov.ae/barakah-plant/" target="_blank">Barakah Nuclear Energy Plant</a>, <a href="https://www.nucnet.org/news/first-commercial-nuclear-plant-in-arab-world-begins-commercial-operation-4-2-2021" target="_blank">NUCNET - 6 April 2021</a>, <a href="https://www.nucnet.org/news/unit-2-begins-commercial-operation-at-arab-world-s-first-nuclear-station-3-4-2022" target="_blank">NUCNET - 24 March 2022</a>). As of the launch of this question, the third reactor was nearing commercial operation, while construction on the fourth and final was nearing completion (<a href="https://www.nucnet.org/news/unit-3-reaches-full-power-with-commercial-operation-set-for-early-2023-12-2-2022" target="_blank">NUCNET - 13 December 2022</a>, <a href="https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20230116009752315" target="_blank">Yonhap News Agency</a>). Whether commerical operations are stopped or suspended after beginning would be immaterial.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2024-01-01 | Before 1 January 2024, will all four reactor units at the Barakah nuclear power plant have begun commercial operation? | 2023-02-02 | [["2023-02-02", 0.2], ["2023-02-02", 0.115], ["2023-02-03", 0.0767], ["2023-02-03", 0.0575], ["2023-02-03", 0.076], ["2023-02-04", 0.08], ["2023-02-04", 0.0867], ["2023-02-05", 0.0886], ["2023-02-05", 0.09], ["2023-02-11", 0.1133], ["2023-02-11", 0.0911], ["2023-02-12", 0.0911], ["2023-02-14", 0.082], ["2023-02-15", 0.062], ["2023-02-16", 0.142], ["2023-02-20", 0.147], ["2023-02-25", 0.145], ["2023-02-26", 0.135], ["2023-03-02", 0.125], ["2023-03-17", 0.115], ["2023-03-29", 0.105], ["2023-03-29", 0.119], ["2023-03-31", 0.174], ["2023-03-31", 0.224], ["2023-04-01", 0.224], ["2023-04-03", 0.232], ["2023-04-10", 0.232], ["2023-04-17", 0.232], ["2023-04-17", 0.232], ["2023-04-20", 0.23], ["2023-04-23", 0.21], ["2023-04-26", 0.21], ["2023-04-27", 0.2], ["2023-04-27", 0.204], ["2023-04-27", 0.205], ["2023-04-29", 0.209], ["2023-05-03", 0.204], ["2023-05-04", 0.27], ["2023-05-11", 0.27], ["2023-05-16", 0.255], ["2023-05-20", 0.255], ["2023-05-22", 0.34], ["2023-05-25", 0.34], ["2023-05-31", 0.338], ["2023-06-02", 0.318], ["2023-06-14", 0.308], ["2023-06-21", 0.308], ["2023-06-28", 0.303], ["2023-06-28", 0.278], ["2023-06-29", 0.277], ["2023-07-08", 0.277], ["2023-07-10", 0.282], ["2023-07-14", 0.263], ["2023-07-16", 0.277], ["2023-07-20", 0.277], ["2023-07-25", 0.272], ["2023-07-26", 0.267], ["2023-07-29", 0.256], ["2023-07-29", 0.257], ["2023-07-29", 0.252], ["2023-08-10", 0.251], ["2023-08-10", 0.251], ["2023-08-24", 0.25], ["2023-08-29", 0.25], ["2023-08-29", 0.248], ["2023-09-08", 0.248], ["2023-09-11", 0.248], ["2023-09-25", 0.187], ["2023-09-27", 0.187], ["2023-09-30", 0.185], ["2023-10-05", 0.187], ["2023-10-05", 0.099], ["2023-10-06", 0.102], ["2023-10-09", 0.102], ["2023-10-16", 0.102], ["2023-10-24", 0.1], ["2023-10-25", 0.1], ["2023-10-26", 0.095], ["2023-10-27", 0.095], ["2023-10-28", 0.035], ["2023-10-29", 0.032], ["2023-10-29", 0.029], ["2023-10-30", 0.025], ["2023-10-31", 0.024], ["2023-11-01", 0.02], ["2023-11-01", 0.019], ["2023-11-04", 0.011], ["2023-11-06", 0.011], ["2023-11-10", 0.009], ["2023-11-14", 0.008], ["2023-11-14", 0.01], ["2023-11-14", 0.0127], ["2023-11-21", 0.01], ["2023-11-22", 0.01], ["2023-11-22", 0.01], ["2023-11-25", 0.01], ["2023-11-29", 0.0091], ["2023-12-03", 0.0091], ["2023-12-11", 0.0091], ["2023-12-12", 0.0091], ["2023-12-16", 0.0083], ["2023-12-18", 0.0083], ["2023-12-21", 0.0083], ["2023-12-26", 0.0058], ["2023-12-26", 0.0058], ["2023-12-29", 0.0054], ["2023-12-31", 0.0054], ["2023-12-31", 0.0046], ["2024-01-01", 0.0046]] | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barakah_nuclear_power_plant", "https://www.enec.gov.ae/barakah-plant/frequently-asked-questions/#:~:text=The%20Barakah%20Nuclear%20Energy%20Plant%20consists%20of%20four%20APR1400%20nuclear,safety", "https://www.msn.com/en-ae/news/national/uae-barakah-nuclear-plant-can-withstand-a-turkey-syria-magnitude-quake-says-official/ar-AA17ql9K", "https://www.nawah.ae/media/press-releases", "https://www.nrc.gov/reactors/new-reactors/how-we-regulate/oversight/itaac.htm", "https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-t-z/united-arab-emirates.aspx", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/APR-1400", "https://www.nrc.gov/about-nrc/organization/commission/hanson/meetings.html", "https://www.nrc.gov/reactors/new-reactors/large-lwr/design-cert/apr1400.html", "https://www.enec.gov.ae/news/announcements/enec-showcases-continuous-progress-of-net-zero-nuclear-/", "https://constructionreviewonline.com/biggest-projects/barakah-nuclear-power-plant-arab-worlds-first-nuclear-energy-power-plant/?utm_content=cmp-true", "https://u.ae/en/information-and-services/environment-and-energy/water-and-energy/types-of-energy-sources/nuclear-energy/start-up-of-unit-1-of-barakah-nuclear-energy-plant", "https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-t-z/united-arab-emirates.aspx:", "https://www.enec.gov.ae/news/latest-news/enec-submits-report-on-lessons-learned-from-fukushima-daiichi-accident-to-f/", "https://www.enec.gov.ae/barakah-plant/frequently-asked-questions/#:~:text=The%20Barakah%20Nuclear%20Energy%20Plant%20consists%20of%20four%20APR1400%20nuclear,safety%2C%20performance%20and%20environmental%20impact", "https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-tz/united-arab-emirates.aspx:", "https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/projects/barakah-nuclear-power-plant-abu-dhabi/#", "https://www.enerdata.net/publications/daily-energy-news/unit-3-uaes-barakah-nuclear-plant-enters-commercial-operation.html#:~:text=The%20first%20reactor%20was%20commissioned,of%20the%20UAE's%20electricity%20needs", "https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Barakah-4-completes-hot-functional-tests", "https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Third-Barakah-unit-begins-commercial-operation", "https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-tz/united-arab-emirates.aspx", "https://www.nucnet.org/news/unit-3-reaches-full-power-with-commercial-operation-set-for-early-2023-12-2-2022", "https://www.nucnet.org/news/final-testing-begins-as-last-reactor-nears-commercial-operation-6-4-2023", "https://u.ae/en/information-and-services/environment-and-energy/water-and-energy/types-of-energy-sources/nuclear-energy/start-up-of-unit-1-", "https://www.eiu.com/n/uae-raises-targets-for-sustainable-energy-in-2030/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-08-20 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1974 |
<p>After the US Senate voted against a $15.00 an hour federal minimum wage, proponents have shifted to new strategies (<a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/541826-senate-rejects-sanders-15-minimum-wage-hike" target="_blank">The Hill</a>, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/democrats-minimum-wage-setback-could-kick-start-talks-with-republicans-11615057218" target="_blank">WSJ</a>). The current federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hour (<a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/29/206" target="_blank">Cornell</a>, <a href="https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/minimum-wage" target="_blank">US Dept. of Labor</a>). The effective date of a raise would be immaterial.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.2;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 5 April 2021</span>: Changes to the tipped minimum wage alone would not count.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-08-20 | Will legislation raising the US federal minimum wage become law before 20 August 2021? | 2021-04-01 | [["2021-04-02", 0.9], ["2021-04-02", 0.455], ["2021-04-02", 0.18], ["2021-04-02", 0.095], ["2021-04-02", 0.095], ["2021-04-02", 0.09], ["2021-04-02", 0.08], ["2021-04-02", 0.065], ["2021-04-02", 0.08], ["2021-04-03", 0.065], ["2021-04-03", 0.065], ["2021-04-03", 0.065], ["2021-04-03", 0.065], ["2021-04-03", 0.08], ["2021-04-03", 0.08], ["2021-04-03", 0.08], ["2021-04-03", 0.08], ["2021-04-03", 0.08], ["2021-04-04", 0.08], ["2021-04-04", 0.08], ["2021-04-04", 0.065], ["2021-04-04", 0.065], ["2021-04-04", 0.065], ["2021-04-04", 0.05], ["2021-04-04", 0.05], ["2021-04-04", 0.05], ["2021-04-05", 0.05], ["2021-04-05", 0.05], ["2021-04-05", 0.06], ["2021-04-05", 0.075], ["2021-04-05", 0.06], ["2021-04-05", 0.05], ["2021-04-05", 0.075], ["2021-04-05", 0.075], ["2021-04-06", 0.08], ["2021-04-06", 0.085], ["2021-04-06", 0.1], ["2021-04-06", 0.1], ["2021-04-06", 0.1], ["2021-04-06", 0.1], ["2021-04-06", 0.09], ["2021-04-06", 0.085], ["2021-04-06", 0.08], ["2021-04-06", 0.09], ["2021-04-07", 0.09], ["2021-04-07", 0.09], ["2021-04-07", 0.09], ["2021-04-07", 0.085], ["2021-04-07", 0.09], ["2021-04-07", 0.09], ["2021-04-07", 0.095], ["2021-04-07", 0.09], ["2021-04-07", 0.09], ["2021-04-07", 0.09], ["2021-04-07", 0.095], ["2021-04-07", 0.09], ["2021-04-08", 0.095], ["2021-04-08", 0.095], ["2021-04-08", 0.085], ["2021-04-08", 0.09], ["2021-04-09", 0.075], ["2021-04-09", 0.075], ["2021-04-09", 0.06], ["2021-04-09", 0.05], ["2021-04-09", 0.06], ["2021-04-10", 0.06], ["2021-04-11", 0.07], ["2021-04-11", 0.075], ["2021-04-11", 0.055], ["2021-04-12", 0.05], ["2021-04-12", 0.05], ["2021-04-12", 0.05], ["2021-04-12", 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"https://www.npr.org/2021/04/05/984596350/ruling-by-senate-parliamentarian-opens-up-potential-pathway-for-democrats", "https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/26/politics/congress-15-dollar-minimum-wage-increase-democrats/index.html", "https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/25/politics/minimum-wage-covid-relief-senate-parliamentarian/index.html", "https://www.businessinsider.com/democratic-sen-manchin-opposed-to-removing-filibuster-2021-3?international=true&r=US&IR=T", "https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/", "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/16/where-efforts-to-raise-the-federal-minimum-wage-stand.html", "https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=weekdays+from+April+12+to+August+6", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antipope#List_of_historical_antipopes", "https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/03/12/when-it-comes-to-raising-the-minimum-wage-most-of-the-action-is-in-cities-and-states-not-congress/", "https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/interactives/party-id-trend/", "https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/08/countries-are-the-worlds-oldest-democracies", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2021/05/08/republicans-unemployment-worker-shortage/", "https://www.govexec.com/management/2021/05/what-executive-order-requiring-federal-contractors-pay-15-minimum-wage-will-mean/173811/", "https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/19/perspectives/covid-stimulus-long-term-recession-impact/index.html", "https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/15/homes/rent-affordability-minimum-wage/index.html", "https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/541826-senate-rejects-sanders-15-minimum-wage-hike", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/democrats-minimum-wage-setback-could-kick-start-talks-with-republicans-11615057218", "https://www.senate.gov/legislative/2021_schedule.htm", "https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_60771d6fe4b001befb6fc904/amp", "https://www.aier.org/article/political-economy-vs-federal-fairy-tales/", "https://in.news.yahoo.com/president-biden-minimum-wage-increase-15-dollars-joint-address-congress-023452313.html", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/joe-manchin-filibuster-vote/2021/04/07/cdbd53c6-97da-11eb-a6d0-13d207aadb78_story.html", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/11/28/by-2040-two-thirds-of-americans-will-be-represented-by-30-percent-of-the-senate/", "https://www.whitehouse.gov/american-jobs-plan/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-09-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2125 |
<p>Tensions between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan continue over Ethiopia's filling of the GERD, designed to become the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa and provide electricity to millions of people (<a href="https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/09/nile-dam-dispute-remains-stalled-egypt-sudan-run-out-options" target="_blank">Al-Monitor</a>, <a href="https://allafrica.com/stories/202107210509.html" target="_blank">All Africa</a>). The filling of the reservoir has stoked diplomatic backlash from Egypt and Sudan due to the potential impacts on water flows, including a referral of the matter to the UN Security Council (<a href="https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/88770/Egypt-refers-GERD-issue-to-UN-Security-Council" target="_blank">Egypt Today</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/un-council-urges-egypt-ethiopia-sudan-restart-dam-talks-2021-09-15/" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://www.un.org/press/en/2021/sc14576.doc.htm" target="_blank">UN</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. 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255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2022-09-01 | Before 1 September 2022, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir? | 2021-09-17 | [["2021-09-17", 0.5], ["2021-09-17", 0.37], ["2021-09-17", 0.4633333333333333], ["2021-09-18", 0.5475], ["2021-09-18", 0.638], ["2021-09-18", 0.6983333333333334], ["2021-09-18", 0.6557142857142857], ["2021-09-18", 0.67], ["2021-09-18", 0.58625], ["2021-09-18", 0.5333333333333333], ["2021-09-18", 0.48], ["2021-09-18", 0.481], ["2021-09-19", 0.436], ["2021-09-19", 0.413], ["2021-09-19", 0.349], ["2021-09-19", 0.274], ["2021-09-20", 0.191], ["2021-09-20", 0.092], ["2021-09-20", 0.052], ["2021-09-20", 0.072], ["2021-09-21", 0.072], ["2021-09-21", 0.075], ["2021-09-21", 0.072], ["2021-09-22", 0.062], ["2021-09-22", 0.057], ["2021-09-23", 0.066], ["2021-09-23", 0.065], ["2021-09-23", 0.064], ["2021-09-24", 0.068], 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"https://www.researchgate.net/publication/317372179_Nile_River's_Basin_Dispute_Perspectives_of_the_Grand_Ethiopian_Renaissance_Dam_GERD/download", "https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/3573791/uk-becomes-indirectly-involved-gerd-crisis", "https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/105925/We-won-t-settle-until-legal-binding-agreement-is-reached", "https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/ethiopia-completes-third-phase-filling-giant-nile-dam-2022-08-12/", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-53432948", "https://egyptianstreets.com/2021/05/26/us-president-joe-biden-affirms-support-for-egypts-water-security-in-gerd-crisis/", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/04/29/gerd-renaissance-dam-negotiations-biden-ethiopia-egypt/", "https://research.sharqforum.org/2021/04/27/how-the-uae-seeks-to-leverage-the-gerd-nile-dispute/", "https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/04/egypt-strengthens-ties-rwanda-amid-nile-dam-crisis", "https://www.un.org/waterforlifedecade/transboundary_waters.shtml", "https://www.globalconstructionreview.com/biden-changes-tack-ethiopias-grand-renaissance-dam/", "https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/3585261/egypt-moves-meet-population%E2%80%99s-water-needs-ahead-ethiopia%E2%80%99s-3rd-gerd-filling", "https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/03/new-consultations-over-nile-dam-inspire-optimism-sudan", "https://www.voanews.com/a/africa_us-restoration-foreign-aid-ethiopia-signals-new-course/6202535.html", "https://www.newsday.co.zw/2021/07/sudan-says-nile-water-level-stable-despite-ethiopias-2nd-filling-of-nile-dam/#:~:text=The%20Al-Rusaires%20Dam%20on%20the%20Blue%20Nile%2C%20which,to%20the%20filling%20and%20operation%20of%20the%20GERD", "https://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/461344/Egypt/Politics-/Ethiopia-to-generate-electricity-from-GERD-startin.aspx"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2066 |
<p>As diplomatic tensions between the EU and the People's Republic of China (PRC) have risen, there is a push within EU institutions to begin negotiations on a bilateral investment agreement with Taiwan (<a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/meps-push-brussels-follow-biden-taiwan-trade-eu-parliament-china/" target="_blank">Politico.eu</a>, <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/AFET-PR-691427_EN.pdf" target="_blank">European Parliament</a>). While the EC conducts trade negotiations, it must first receive authorization from the Council (<a href="https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149616.pdf" target="_blank">EC</a>, <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/P-9-2021-001691_EN.html" target="_blank">European Parliament - Question to Commission</a>, <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/P-9-2021-001691-ASW_EN.html" target="_blank">European Parliament - Commission Response</a>). In 2013, the Commission made its proposal to the Council to open negotiations with the PRC on what would become the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment, for which an agreement in principle was reached in December 2020 (<a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_13_458" target="_blank">EC</a>, <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_2541" target="_blank">EC</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-01-03 | Before 1 January 2022, will the European Commission (EC) recommend that the Council of the European Union authorize the EC to open negotiations with Taiwan on an investment agreement? | 2021-07-09 | [["2021-07-09", 1.0], ["2021-07-09", 0.75], ["2021-07-09", 0.5], ["2021-07-09", 0.5], ["2021-07-10", 0.26], ["2021-07-10", 0.02], ["2021-07-10", 0.015], ["2021-07-10", 0.02], ["2021-07-10", 0.015], ["2021-07-10", 0.02], ["2021-07-10", 0.085], ["2021-07-10", 0.02], ["2021-07-10", 0.085], ["2021-07-10", 0.02], ["2021-07-10", 0.015], ["2021-07-10", 0.01], ["2021-07-10", 0.015], ["2021-07-10", 0.015], ["2021-07-10", 0.02], ["2021-07-11", 0.035], ["2021-07-11", 0.035], ["2021-07-11", 0.05], ["2021-07-11", 0.07], ["2021-07-11", 0.05], ["2021-07-11", 0.065], ["2021-07-12", 0.05], ["2021-07-12", 0.04], ["2021-07-12", 0.04], ["2021-07-12", 0.03], ["2021-07-12", 0.04], 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"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=China-EU_-_international_trade_in_goods_statistics", "https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/the-case-for-greater-us-eu-collaboration-on-taiwan/", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1875-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-the-eu-sign-a-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment-before-1-january-2022", "https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/why-europes-future-is-on-the-line-in-the-taiwan-strait/", "https://merics.org/en/merics-briefs/taiwan-indo-pacific-eu-china-policy", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1306588", "https://www.reuters.com/world/china/eu-executive-slows-push-china-investment-deal-2021-05-05/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1306078", "https://www.cfr.org/blog/time-now-trade-deal-taiwan", "https://www.reneweuropegroup.eu/events/2021-07-12/an-investment-agreement-with-taiwan", "https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-trade-chief-says-efforts-to-ratify-china-deal-suspended/", "https://www.nysun.com/foreign/europe-is-making-gingerly-an-opening-to-the-free/91738/", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/04/14/taiwan-china-econonomic-codependence/", "https://www.politico.eu/article/meps-push-brussels-follow-biden-taiwan-trade-eu-parliament-china/", "https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/P-9-2021-001691_EN.html", "https://www.politico.com/news/2021/06/30/us-taiwan-hold-first-trade-talks-since-2016-497407", "https://www.newsweek.com/eu-lawmakers-ignore-china-protests-seek-stronger-taiwan-ties-1625318", "https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-07/taiwan-us-free-trade-agreement-xi-jinping-speech-australia/100269014", "https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20210910IPR11917/parliament-sets-out-its-vision-for-a-new-eu-strategy-on-china"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-08-22 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2809 |
<p>South Africa is scheduled to host the 15th BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) Summit in August 2023 (<a href="https://www.gov.za/speeches/president-cyril-9-mar-2023-0000" target="_blank">South African Government</a>, <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/as-brics-chair-south-africa-vows-to-advance-african-interests-/6912172.html" target="_blank">Voice of America</a>). Russian President Vladimir Putin's expected attendance has been complicated by the issuance of a warrant for his arrest by the International Criminal Court, which obliges South Africa to arrest Putin should he enter the country (<a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/93k588/will-vladimir-putin-be-arrested-in-south-africa" target="_blank">Vice</a>, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-03-19/south-africa-aware-of-legal-obligations-regarding-putin-visit" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.pgaction.org/ilhr/rome-statute/south-africa.html" target="_blank">Parliamentarians for Global Action</a>). Putin would have to be physically present at the summit to count. The question would close early upon the completion of the summit in South Africa. The question would close "No" upon either the official canceling of the summit for the 2023 calendar year or official relocation of the summit outside of South Africa.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-08-24 | Will Vladimir Putin attend the 2023 BRICS Summit in South Africa? | 2023-03-23 | [["2023-03-24", 0.1], ["2023-03-24", 0.2667], ["2023-03-24", 0.36], ["2023-03-24", 0.28], ["2023-03-24", 0.4078], ["2023-03-24", 0.442], ["2023-03-24", 0.4058], ["2023-03-24", 0.3986], ["2023-03-24", 0.4081], ["2023-03-24", 0.4017], ["2023-03-24", 0.4115], ["2023-03-24", 0.3745], ["2023-03-25", 0.3696], ["2023-03-25", 0.3575], ["2023-03-25", 0.3627], ["2023-03-25", 0.3671], ["2023-03-25", 0.343], ["2023-03-25", 0.3371], ["2023-03-25", 0.3494], ["2023-03-25", 0.3645], ["2023-03-25", 0.3765], ["2023-03-25", 0.3729], ["2023-03-25", 0.3641], ["2023-03-25", 0.3718], ["2023-03-25", 0.3763], ["2023-03-25", 0.3655], ["2023-03-26", 0.3518], ["2023-03-26", 0.3387], ["2023-03-26", 0.3609], ["2023-03-26", 0.3646], ["2023-03-27", 0.3582], ["2023-03-27", 0.3618], ["2023-03-27", 0.3521], ["2023-03-27", 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0.0345], ["2023-07-27", 0.0298], ["2023-07-27", 0.0325], ["2023-07-28", 0.0323], ["2023-07-28", 0.03], ["2023-07-28", 0.03], ["2023-07-29", 0.03], ["2023-07-30", 0.0148], ["2023-07-30", 0.0137], ["2023-07-31", 0.0131], ["2023-08-02", 0.0129], ["2023-08-03", 0.0134], ["2023-08-03", 0.0128], ["2023-08-04", 0.012], ["2023-08-05", 0.0118], ["2023-08-06", 0.0118], ["2023-08-08", 0.0118], ["2023-08-08", 0.0115], ["2023-08-09", 0.0114], ["2023-08-09", 0.0114], ["2023-08-10", 0.0112], ["2023-08-11", 0.0108], ["2023-08-11", 0.0108], ["2023-08-11", 0.0108], ["2023-08-12", 0.0111], ["2023-08-12", 0.0111], ["2023-08-13", 0.0111], ["2023-08-13", 0.0114], ["2023-08-14", 0.0112], ["2023-08-15", 0.007], ["2023-08-15", 0.007], ["2023-08-15", 0.007], ["2023-08-16", 0.007], ["2023-08-16", 0.0072], ["2023-08-16", 0.0078], ["2023-08-16", 0.0076], ["2023-08-17", 0.0075], ["2023-08-18", 0.0072], ["2023-08-18", 0.0076], ["2023-08-19", 0.0076], ["2023-08-20", 0.0074], ["2023-08-21", 0.0079], ["2023-08-21", 0.0079], ["2023-08-22", 0.0079]] | ["https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66247067", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/13/us-lawmakers-want-s-africa-to-lose-trade-summit-over-russia-ties", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SLtQ9gu_NmA", "https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/putin-unlikely-to-attend-brics-summit-physically-analyst/", "https://www.news24.com/news24/politics/government/arresting-putin-would-declaration-of-war-against-russia-ramaphosa-says-in-confidential-affidavit-20230718", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/07/19/putin-brics-south-africa-arrest/", "https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/19/world/putin-brics-summit-south-africa-intl/index.html", "https://www.euronews.com/video/2023/07/10/south-africa-says-brics-summit-will-be-in-person-despite-putin-arrest-warrant", "https://mg.co.za/politics/2023-07-12-give-us-a-week-mashatile-says-on-question-of-putins-brics-attendance/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/18/world/europe/putin-south-africa.html", "https://www.africanews.com/2023/07/10/brics-summit-in-south-africa-to-be-held-in-person/", "https://www.news24.com/news24/politics/government/by-mutual-agreement-putin-wont-attend-brics-summit-presidency-20230719", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gP132E-xABg&t=327s", "https://www.reuters.com/world/south-africa-putin-will-not-attend-brics-summit-by-mutual-agreement-2023-07-19/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_gtGfAail4", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r-0OMKCM7yI", "https://www.linkedin.com/in/kjirstemorrell/", "https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2023-07-18-arresting-putin-risks-engaging-in-war-with-russia-president-ramaphosa-warns-on-national-security/", "https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLZOMlO2_17fsBGC7TrCwoFafQZbE6aj0P", "https://goodjudgment.com/about/our-team/superforecaster-profiles/kjirste-morrell/", "https://ewn.co.za/2023/07/14/brics-summit-all-5-heads-of-state-to-attend-in-person", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PS3-lyqCl80", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VUoXtddNPAM", "https://rocketreach.co/severina-de-biasi-email_5008291", "https://www.wwe.com/superstars/donald-trump"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-04-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2665 |
<p>The outcome will be determined using data as first reported by the Workers’ Compensation Board of British Columbia (<a href="https://www.worksafebc.com/en/covid-19/claims/covid-19-claims-by-industry-sector" target="_blank">WorkSafeBC</a>, see "Monthly COVID-19 claims registered"). In December 2021, 213 COVID-19 claims were registered. Monthly highs for 2022 include 2,284 in January and 2,103 in February.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-04-14 | Will British Columbia have more than 2,100 workplace COVID-19 claims registered for any month between December 2022 and March 2023? | 2022-12-09 | [["2022-12-09", 0.95], ["2022-12-09", 0.825], ["2022-12-09", 0.5667], ["2022-12-10", 0.5375], ["2022-12-10", 0.47], ["2022-12-10", 0.445], ["2022-12-10", 0.4171], ["2022-12-10", 0.3838], ["2022-12-10", 0.3456], ["2022-12-11", 0.3444], ["2022-12-11", 0.31], ["2022-12-11", 0.3727], ["2022-12-12", 0.3467], ["2022-12-13", 0.246], ["2022-12-13", 0.2236], ["2022-12-13", 0.2645], ["2022-12-13", 0.2425], ["2022-12-13", 0.22], ["2022-12-14", 0.224], ["2022-12-17", 0.282], ["2022-12-21", 0.284], ["2022-12-22", 0.224], ["2022-12-28", 0.223], ["2022-12-28", 0.229], ["2022-12-29", 0.221], ["2023-01-03", 0.249], ["2023-01-04", 0.248], ["2023-01-05", 0.24], ["2023-01-06", 0.17], ["2023-01-14", 0.169], ["2023-01-17", 0.164], ["2023-01-19", 0.164], ["2023-01-28", 0.16], ["2023-01-28", 0.151], ["2023-02-03", 0.132], ["2023-02-03", 0.102], ["2023-02-04", 0.1], ["2023-02-08", 0.1], ["2023-02-11", 0.092], ["2023-02-12", 0.094], ["2023-02-12", 0.094], ["2023-02-14", 0.091], ["2023-02-26", 0.09], ["2023-02-28", 0.084], ["2023-03-02", 0.083], ["2023-03-12", 0.083], ["2023-03-12", 0.083], ["2023-03-12", 0.081], ["2023-03-20", 0.081], ["2023-03-25", 0.081], ["2023-03-26", 0.0736], ["2023-03-29", 0.0736], ["2023-03-31", 0.0555], ["2023-04-01", 0.055], ["2023-04-01", 0.055]] | ["http://www.bccdc.ca/Health-Info-Site/Documents/COVID_sitrep/LTC_Acute/LTC-AL_COVID-19_Outbreak_Report_20221208.pdf", "https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/05/world/canada/bonnie-henry-british-columbia-coronavirus.html", "http://www.bccdc.ca/health-info/diseases-conditions/covid-19/data"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-07-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1411 |
<p>Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for reform of Chile’s pension system have grown (<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a" target="_blank">Financial Times</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/31ab8e9f5b9a467abdda53616edc72c2" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle" target="_blank">IPE</a>, <a href="https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/mundo/diez-puntos-para-entender-el-sistema-de-pensiones-que-no-quieren-los-chilenos" target="_blank">El Universal</a> [in Spanish]). A constitutional amendment to the same effect would count. Legislation enabling or delegating new regulatory authority to cap administrative fees and/or operating profits would count.</p><p>Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1417, which closes in 2020 (<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1417" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">Question #1417</a>). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates.<br></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-07-01 | Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation that caps administrative fees and/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers? | 2019-12-04 | [["2019-12-04", 0.95], ["2019-12-04", 0.525], ["2019-12-04", 0.35], ["2019-12-04", 0.45], ["2019-12-04", 0.445], ["2019-12-04", 0.45], ["2019-12-04", 0.405], ["2019-12-05", 0.36], ["2019-12-05", 0.355], ["2019-12-05", 0.355], ["2019-12-05", 0.355], ["2019-12-05", 0.35], ["2019-12-06", 0.35], ["2019-12-06", 0.35], ["2019-12-07", 0.35], ["2019-12-08", 0.355], ["2019-12-08", 0.355], ["2019-12-08", 0.375], ["2019-12-08", 0.42], ["2019-12-09", 0.42], ["2019-12-09", 0.415], ["2019-12-09", 0.415], ["2019-12-09", 0.415], ["2019-12-10", 0.415], ["2019-12-10", 0.415], ["2019-12-11", 0.405], ["2019-12-11", 0.405], ["2019-12-11", 0.405], ["2019-12-11", 0.42], ["2019-12-12", 0.42], ["2019-12-12", 0.405], ["2019-12-12", 0.405], ["2019-12-12", 0.33], ["2019-12-12", 0.33], ["2019-12-12", 0.33], ["2019-12-13", 0.315], ["2019-12-13", 0.3], ["2019-12-15", 0.3], ["2019-12-15", 0.3], ["2019-12-15", 0.35], ["2019-12-15", 0.35], ["2019-12-16", 0.35], ["2019-12-18", 0.3], ["2019-12-18", 0.3], ["2019-12-20", 0.3], ["2019-12-20", 0.3], ["2019-12-21", 0.3], ["2019-12-22", 0.3], ["2019-12-23", 0.29], ["2019-12-24", 0.25], ["2019-12-25", 0.3], ["2019-12-26", 0.43], ["2019-12-27", 0.44], ["2019-12-28", 0.465], ["2019-12-28", 0.465], ["2019-12-28", 0.515], ["2019-12-29", 0.515], ["2019-12-29", 0.5], ["2019-12-30", 0.35], ["2019-12-30", 0.34], ["2019-12-30", 0.35], ["2019-12-30", 0.325], ["2019-12-31", 0.33], ["2020-01-01", 0.33], ["2020-01-01", 0.405], ["2020-01-02", 0.405], ["2020-01-03", 0.49], ["2020-01-04", 0.45], ["2020-01-06", 0.45], ["2020-01-06", 0.35], ["2020-01-08", 0.3], ["2020-01-08", 0.3], ["2020-01-09", 0.3], ["2020-01-10", 0.3], ["2020-01-11", 0.3], ["2020-01-11", 0.3], ["2020-01-11", 0.315], ["2020-01-12", 0.315], ["2020-01-13", 0.275], ["2020-01-14", 0.275], ["2020-01-15", 0.275], ["2020-01-15", 0.275], ["2020-01-15", 0.24], ["2020-01-17", 0.24], ["2020-01-18", 0.275], ["2020-01-19", 0.275], ["2020-01-19", 0.3], ["2020-01-19", 0.3], ["2020-01-20", 0.3], ["2020-01-20", 0.275], ["2020-01-20", 0.275], ["2020-01-20", 0.275], ["2020-01-21", 0.275], ["2020-01-22", 0.305], ["2020-01-22", 0.31], ["2020-01-23", 0.33], ["2020-01-24", 0.33], ["2020-01-27", 0.33], ["2020-01-29", 0.33], ["2020-01-29", 0.33], ["2020-01-29", 0.33], ["2020-01-29", 0.3], ["2020-01-30", 0.3], ["2020-02-02", 0.28], ["2020-02-03", 0.3], ["2020-02-04", 0.29], ["2020-02-05", 0.285], ["2020-02-06", 0.285], ["2020-02-07", 0.285], ["2020-02-08", 0.28], ["2020-02-10", 0.275], ["2020-02-11", 0.275], ["2020-02-11", 0.27], ["2020-02-11", 0.235], ["2020-02-13", 0.235], ["2020-02-13", 0.235], ["2020-02-15", 0.27], ["2020-02-15", 0.27], ["2020-02-16", 0.24], ["2020-02-16", 0.23], ["2020-02-19", 0.23], ["2020-02-19", 0.22], ["2020-02-19", 0.25], ["2020-02-19", 0.275], ["2020-02-20", 0.275], ["2020-02-20", 0.275], ["2020-02-20", 0.275], ["2020-02-21", 0.275], ["2020-02-22", 0.23], ["2020-02-22", 0.225], ["2020-02-27", 0.225], ["2020-02-27", 0.225], ["2020-03-01", 0.2], ["2020-03-03", 0.2], ["2020-03-13", 0.2], ["2020-03-15", 0.2], ["2020-03-16", 0.19], ["2020-03-17", 0.2], ["2020-03-19", 0.16], ["2020-03-20", 0.16], ["2020-03-21", 0.15], ["2020-03-22", 0.15], ["2020-03-23", 0.15], ["2020-03-23", 0.175], ["2020-03-24", 0.13], ["2020-03-25", 0.105], ["2020-03-28", 0.105], ["2020-03-30", 0.1], ["2020-03-31", 0.1], ["2020-04-01", 0.1], ["2020-04-06", 0.1], ["2020-04-09", 0.1], ["2020-04-09", 0.1], ["2020-04-11", 0.1], ["2020-04-11", 0.1], ["2020-04-14", 0.1], ["2020-04-16", 0.1], ["2020-04-16", 0.095], ["2020-04-19", 0.085], ["2020-04-19", 0.085], ["2020-04-19", 0.07], ["2020-04-19", 0.06], ["2020-04-21", 0.06], ["2020-04-21", 0.08], ["2020-04-23", 0.07], ["2020-04-27", 0.07], ["2020-04-29", 0.06], ["2020-04-29", 0.06], ["2020-05-01", 0.06], ["2020-05-04", 0.055], ["2020-05-07", 0.05], ["2020-05-08", 0.055], ["2020-05-10", 0.055], ["2020-05-11", 0.06], ["2020-05-17", 0.06], ["2020-05-20", 0.06], ["2020-05-20", 0.05], ["2020-05-23", 0.05], ["2020-06-01", 0.05], ["2020-06-01", 0.05], ["2020-06-03", 0.05], ["2020-06-03", 0.05], ["2020-06-04", 0.05], ["2020-06-04", 0.05], ["2020-06-09", 0.05], ["2020-06-09", 0.05], ["2020-06-11", 0.05], ["2020-06-11", 0.05], ["2020-06-12", 0.05], ["2020-06-12", 0.05], ["2020-06-13", 0.05], ["2020-06-14", 0.05], ["2020-06-14", 0.05], ["2020-06-17", 0.05], ["2020-06-17", 0.05], ["2020-06-28", 0.05], ["2020-07-03", 0.05], ["2020-07-03", 0.05], ["2020-07-03", 0.05], ["2020-07-06", 0.05], ["2020-07-08", 0.05], ["2020-07-08", 0.05], ["2020-07-11", 0.045], ["2020-07-19", 0.045], ["2020-07-28", 0.045], ["2020-08-02", 0.045], ["2020-08-02", 0.035], ["2020-08-10", 0.035], ["2020-08-11", 0.035], ["2020-08-11", 0.035], ["2020-08-20", 0.035], ["2020-08-20", 0.035], ["2020-08-27", 0.035], ["2020-09-04", 0.035], ["2020-09-15", 0.035], ["2020-09-15", 0.03], ["2020-09-21", 0.03], ["2020-09-27", 0.04], ["2020-10-01", 0.04], ["2020-10-02", 0.04], ["2020-10-05", 0.04], ["2020-10-14", 0.04], ["2020-10-16", 0.04], ["2020-10-17", 0.04], ["2020-10-17", 0.04], ["2020-10-24", 0.04], ["2020-10-26", 0.04], ["2020-10-26", 0.05], ["2020-10-26", 0.05], ["2020-10-26", 0.05], ["2020-10-31", 0.05], ["2020-11-04", 0.05], ["2020-11-08", 0.04], ["2020-11-13", 0.04], ["2020-11-21", 0.04], ["2020-11-23", 0.04], ["2020-12-01", 0.03], ["2020-12-02", 0.03], ["2020-12-06", 0.03], ["2020-12-08", 0.03], ["2020-12-10", 0.03], ["2020-12-11", 0.03], ["2020-12-30", 0.03], ["2020-12-31", 0.03], ["2021-01-09", 0.03], ["2021-01-11", 0.025], ["2021-01-12", 0.025], ["2021-01-13", 0.025], ["2021-01-19", 0.02], ["2021-01-19", 0.02], ["2021-01-22", 0.015], ["2021-01-23", 0.01], ["2021-01-28", 0.01], ["2021-01-28", 0.01], ["2021-01-29", 0.01], ["2021-02-05", 0.01], ["2021-02-07", 0.01], ["2021-02-18", 0.01], ["2021-02-27", 0.01], ["2021-03-01", 0.01], ["2021-03-03", 0.01], ["2021-03-06", 0.0], ["2021-03-07", 0.0], ["2021-03-08", 0.0], ["2021-03-10", 0.0], ["2021-03-16", 0.0], ["2021-03-24", 0.0], ["2021-03-25", 0.0], ["2021-03-25", 0.0], ["2021-03-29", 0.0], ["2021-04-03", 0.0], ["2021-04-04", 0.0], ["2021-04-08", 0.0], ["2021-04-20", 0.0], ["2021-04-23", 0.0], ["2021-04-23", 0.0], ["2021-04-29", 0.0], ["2021-04-30", 0.0], ["2021-05-06", 0.0], ["2021-05-14", 0.0], ["2021-05-20", 0.0], ["2021-05-22", 0.0], ["2021-05-23", 0.0], ["2021-05-25", 0.0], ["2021-05-25", 0.0], ["2021-05-27", 0.0], ["2021-05-28", 0.0], ["2021-05-31", 0.0], ["2021-06-06", 0.0], ["2021-06-12", 0.0], ["2021-06-12", 0.0], ["2021-06-17", 0.0], ["2021-06-20", 0.0], ["2021-06-25", 0.0], ["2021-06-27", 0.0], ["2021-06-30", 0.0], ["2021-06-30", 0.0], ["2021-07-01", 0.0]] | ["https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1166858"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-10-12 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2559 |
<p>Widespread protests have broken out in Iran after a woman who was arrested for breaking hijab rules died in police custody (<a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/09/21/1124237272/mahsa-amini-iran-women-protest-hijab-morality-police" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/09/iran-protests-pose-new-test-clerical-leadership" target="_blank">Al-Monitor</a>, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-mahsa-amini-protests-spread-death-toll/" target="_blank">CBS News</a>). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify, though not necessarily at the same time. As of 22 September 2022, Iran Human Rights reported that 31 protesters had been killed (<a href="https://iranhr.net/en/articles/5496/" target="_blank">Iran Human Rights</a>). The outcome will be determined using available information no later than 4 November 2022.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2022-10-12 | Between 16 September 2022 and 31 October 2022, will anti-government protests in Iran result in 200 or more protester fatalities, according to Iran Human Rights? | 2022-09-23 | [["2022-09-23", 0.3], ["2022-09-23", 0.155], ["2022-09-23", 0.3067], ["2022-09-23", 0.23], ["2022-09-23", 0.384], ["2022-09-23", 0.345], ["2022-09-23", 0.3243], ["2022-09-23", 0.3713], ["2022-09-23", 0.3838], ["2022-09-23", 0.3656], ["2022-09-23", 0.389], ["2022-09-23", 0.389], ["2022-09-23", 0.3791], ["2022-09-23", 0.4108], ["2022-09-23", 0.3854], ["2022-09-23", 0.3864], ["2022-09-24", 0.4007], ["2022-09-24", 0.4073], ["2022-09-24", 0.4053], ["2022-09-24", 0.412], ["2022-09-24", 0.4181], ["2022-09-24", 0.4465], ["2022-09-24", 0.4717], ["2022-09-24", 0.4821], ["2022-09-24", 0.462], ["2022-09-24", 0.459], ["2022-09-24", 0.4495], ["2022-09-24", 0.4439], ["2022-09-24", 0.4617], ["2022-09-24", 0.4776], ["2022-09-24", 0.4823], ["2022-09-24", 0.49], ["2022-09-24", 0.5078], ["2022-09-24", 0.5075], ["2022-09-24", 0.5203], ["2022-09-25", 0.5197], ["2022-09-25", 0.503], ["2022-09-25", 0.4965], ["2022-09-25", 0.5084], ["2022-09-25", 0.5155], ["2022-09-25", 0.5181], ["2022-09-25", 0.5194], ["2022-09-25", 0.5233], ["2022-09-25", 0.5248], ["2022-09-25", 0.5445], ["2022-09-25", 0.5476], ["2022-09-25", 0.5515], ["2022-09-25", 0.5576], ["2022-09-25", 0.5541], ["2022-09-25", 0.5512], ["2022-09-25", 0.5518], ["2022-09-25", 0.5521], ["2022-09-25", 0.5541], ["2022-09-25", 0.555], ["2022-09-25", 0.5606], ["2022-09-25", 0.5658], ["2022-09-26", 0.5676], ["2022-09-26", 0.5665], ["2022-09-26", 0.5555], ["2022-09-26", 0.5669], ["2022-09-26", 0.5528], ["2022-09-26", 0.5576], ["2022-09-26", 0.5576], ["2022-09-26", 0.5555], ["2022-09-26", 0.5543], ["2022-09-26", 0.5615], ["2022-09-26", 0.5695], ["2022-09-26", 0.6018], ["2022-09-26", 0.5992], ["2022-09-26", 0.5976], ["2022-09-27", 0.6042], ["2022-09-27", 0.6171], ["2022-09-27", 0.6114], ["2022-09-27", 0.6134], ["2022-09-27", 0.6145], ["2022-09-27", 0.6026], ["2022-09-27", 0.5829], ["2022-09-27", 0.6036], ["2022-09-27", 0.6149], ["2022-09-27", 0.6026], ["2022-09-27", 0.5913], ["2022-09-28", 0.6277], ["2022-09-28", 0.6281], ["2022-09-28", 0.6067], ["2022-09-28", 0.6122], ["2022-09-28", 0.6016], ["2022-09-28", 0.6169], ["2022-09-28", 0.6142], ["2022-09-28", 0.6119], ["2022-09-28", 0.6221], ["2022-09-28", 0.6307], ["2022-09-28", 0.6413], ["2022-09-28", 0.6433], ["2022-09-28", 0.6235], ["2022-09-28", 0.6291], ["2022-09-28", 0.6388], ["2022-09-28", 0.6435], ["2022-09-28", 0.6465], ["2022-09-29", 0.6529], ["2022-09-29", 0.6583], ["2022-09-29", 0.6646], ["2022-09-29", 0.6812], ["2022-09-29", 0.6745], ["2022-09-29", 0.6797], ["2022-09-29", 0.661], ["2022-09-29", 0.6494], ["2022-09-29", 0.6456], ["2022-09-29", 0.6425], ["2022-09-29", 0.6425], ["2022-09-29", 0.6441], ["2022-09-29", 0.639], ["2022-09-29", 0.6416], ["2022-09-30", 0.633], ["2022-09-30", 0.6337], ["2022-09-30", 0.6193], ["2022-09-30", 0.6176], ["2022-09-30", 0.64], ["2022-09-30", 0.6353], ["2022-09-30", 0.6429], ["2022-09-30", 0.6413], ["2022-09-30", 0.6381], ["2022-09-30", 0.6384], ["2022-09-30", 0.6353], ["2022-09-30", 0.6242], ["2022-09-30", 0.6373], ["2022-09-30", 0.6394], ["2022-09-30", 0.6285], ["2022-09-30", 0.6249], ["2022-10-01", 0.6281], ["2022-10-01", 0.6288], ["2022-10-01", 0.6327], ["2022-10-01", 0.6309], ["2022-10-01", 0.6309], ["2022-10-01", 0.6139], ["2022-10-01", 0.6132], ["2022-10-01", 0.6116], ["2022-10-01", 0.6288], ["2022-10-01", 0.6381], ["2022-10-02", 0.6354], ["2022-10-02", 0.6296], ["2022-10-02", 0.6204], ["2022-10-02", 0.6273], ["2022-10-02", 0.6269], ["2022-10-02", 0.6262], ["2022-10-02", 0.6265], ["2022-10-02", 0.6304], ["2022-10-02", 0.6346], ["2022-10-02", 0.6615], ["2022-10-02", 0.6615], ["2022-10-02", 0.6635], ["2022-10-02", 0.6735], ["2022-10-02", 0.6792], ["2022-10-02", 0.7004], ["2022-10-03", 0.6965], ["2022-10-03", 0.695], ["2022-10-03", 0.6981], ["2022-10-03", 0.7312], ["2022-10-03", 0.765], ["2022-10-03", 0.7644], ["2022-10-03", 0.7737], ["2022-10-03", 0.7774], ["2022-10-03", 0.7774], ["2022-10-03", 0.7793], ["2022-10-03", 0.7881], ["2022-10-03", 0.8081], ["2022-10-03", 0.8144], ["2022-10-04", 0.8156], ["2022-10-04", 0.823], ["2022-10-04", 0.8248], ["2022-10-04", 0.8263], ["2022-10-04", 0.8171], ["2022-10-04", 0.8325], ["2022-10-04", 0.8361], ["2022-10-04", 0.8389], ["2022-10-04", 0.8393], ["2022-10-04", 0.8443], ["2022-10-04", 0.8507], ["2022-10-04", 0.8546], ["2022-10-04", 0.8804], ["2022-10-04", 0.8821], ["2022-10-04", 0.8821], ["2022-10-04", 0.8824], ["2022-10-04", 0.8841], ["2022-10-04", 0.8845], ["2022-10-05", 0.8869], ["2022-10-05", 0.9038], ["2022-10-05", 0.9048], ["2022-10-05", 0.9045], ["2022-10-05", 0.9038], ["2022-10-05", 0.9052], ["2022-10-05", 0.9069], ["2022-10-05", 0.9072], ["2022-10-05", 0.9193], ["2022-10-05", 0.9176], ["2022-10-05", 0.9162], ["2022-10-05", 0.9172], ["2022-10-05", 0.9128], ["2022-10-06", 0.8993], ["2022-10-06", 0.901], ["2022-10-06", 0.8993], ["2022-10-06", 0.8976], ["2022-10-06", 0.8931], ["2022-10-06", 0.8928], ["2022-10-06", 0.8921], ["2022-10-06", 0.8931], ["2022-10-06", 0.8931], ["2022-10-06", 0.8983], ["2022-10-06", 0.8986], ["2022-10-06", 0.9021], ["2022-10-06", 0.9003], ["2022-10-06", 0.9076], ["2022-10-06", 0.9124], ["2022-10-06", 0.9159], ["2022-10-07", 0.9162], ["2022-10-07", 0.9169], ["2022-10-07", 0.9186], ["2022-10-07", 0.9193], ["2022-10-07", 0.9197], ["2022-10-07", 0.9338], ["2022-10-08", 0.9345], ["2022-10-08", 0.9338], ["2022-10-08", 0.9369], ["2022-10-08", 0.9379], ["2022-10-08", 0.9379], ["2022-10-08", 0.9438], ["2022-10-08", 0.9448], ["2022-10-08", 0.9524], ["2022-10-08", 0.9528], ["2022-10-09", 0.9579], ["2022-10-09", 0.959], ["2022-10-09", 0.9593], ["2022-10-09", 0.9645], ["2022-10-09", 0.9648], ["2022-10-09", 0.9648], ["2022-10-09", 0.9655], ["2022-10-09", 0.9659], ["2022-10-10", 0.9655], ["2022-10-10", 0.9676], ["2022-10-10", 0.9703], ["2022-10-10", 0.9703], ["2022-10-10", 0.9724], ["2022-10-10", 0.9734], ["2022-10-10", 0.9393], ["2022-10-10", 0.9469], ["2022-10-10", 0.9462], ["2022-10-10", 0.9434], ["2022-10-10", 0.943], ["2022-10-11", 0.943], ["2022-10-11", 0.9447], ["2022-10-11", 0.9453], ["2022-10-11", 0.945], ["2022-10-11", 0.9383], ["2022-10-11", 0.9383], ["2022-10-11", 0.939], ["2022-10-12", 0.94], ["2022-10-12", 0.94]] | ["https://iranhr.net/en/articles/5499/", "https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/xz9tr9/some_of_the_military_forces_join_the_revolution/", "https://iranhr.net/en/articles/5515/", "https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-october-5", "https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/at-least-50-killed-as-anti-hijab-protests-intensify-across-iran-3372893", "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/2020-presidential-election-joe-biden-donald-trump-patrick-basham-mark-levin", "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/heritage-foundation-voter-fraud-state-laws", "https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-september-28", "https://www.reddit.com/r/nextfuckinglevel/comments/xksd7p/irans_police_straight_up_open_fire_on_protesting/", "https://iranhr.net/en/articles/5503/", "https://iranhr.net/en/articles/5517/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/24/world/middleeast/iran-protests-raisi-khamenei-hijab.html", "https://iranhr.net/en/articles/5506/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1516504", "https://www.reddit.com/r/PublicFreakout/comments/xnrh5g/iranian_police_shooting_up_civilians_who_look_out/", "https://iranhr.net/en/articles/5508/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Spring", "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-63021113", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-63047363", "https://iranhr.net/en/articles/5500/", "https://twitter.com/hengawo/status/1578664430866337792", "https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-october-6", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/30/world/middleeast/iran-protests-government-crackdown.html", "https://iranhr.net/en/articles/#/all/all/1", "https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-september-29"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2020-08-05 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1690 |
<p>The social media giant’s next quarterly earnings release is scheduled for 29 July 2020 amid an advertiser boycott that began in June over hate speech monitoring on the site (<a href="https://investor.fb.com/investor-events/default.aspx" target="_blank">Facebook</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/07/03/activists-advertising-boycott-facebook-348528)" target="_blank">Politico</a>). The outcome will be determined using the closing price on 5 August 2020 as reported by Bloomberg (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/FB:US" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>). On 7 July 2020 the closing price of Facebook stock was $240.86.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? </span><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p><i>This is a companion to the ordinal <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1692-what-will-be-the-closing-stock-price-of-facebook-on-5-august-2020" target="_blank">#1692</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p>
</p>
| 2020-08-06 | Will the closing price of Facebook stock be higher on 5 August 2020 than it was on 7 July 2020? | 2020-07-08 | [["2020-07-08", 0.16], ["2020-07-08", 0.03], ["2020-07-08", 0.03], ["2020-07-08", 0.16], ["2020-07-08", 0.31], ["2020-07-08", 0.45], ["2020-07-08", 0.45], ["2020-07-08", 0.45], ["2020-07-08", 0.45], ["2020-07-08", 0.525], ["2020-07-08", 0.525], ["2020-07-08", 0.56], ["2020-07-08", 0.545], ["2020-07-08", 0.54], ["2020-07-08", 0.475], ["2020-07-08", 0.45], ["2020-07-08", 0.475], ["2020-07-08", 0.425], ["2020-07-08", 0.4], ["2020-07-09", 0.375], ["2020-07-09", 0.34], ["2020-07-09", 0.35], ["2020-07-09", 0.375], ["2020-07-09", 0.4], ["2020-07-09", 0.4], ["2020-07-09", 0.45], ["2020-07-09", 0.4], ["2020-07-09", 0.395], ["2020-07-09", 0.45], ["2020-07-09", 0.475], ["2020-07-10", 0.5], ["2020-07-10", 0.525], ["2020-07-10", 0.55], ["2020-07-10", 0.55], ["2020-07-10", 0.55], ["2020-07-10", 0.575], ["2020-07-10", 0.55], ["2020-07-10", 0.6], ["2020-07-10", 0.61], ["2020-07-11", 0.61], ["2020-07-11", 0.61], ["2020-07-11", 0.6], ["2020-07-11", 0.6], ["2020-07-11", 0.65], ["2020-07-12", 0.65], ["2020-07-12", 0.65], ["2020-07-12", 0.65], ["2020-07-12", 0.65], ["2020-07-12", 0.65], ["2020-07-12", 0.65], ["2020-07-13", 0.675], ["2020-07-13", 0.65], ["2020-07-13", 0.65], ["2020-07-13", 0.675], ["2020-07-13", 0.7], ["2020-07-14", 0.7], ["2020-07-14", 0.7], ["2020-07-14", 0.685], ["2020-07-14", 0.7], ["2020-07-14", 0.67], ["2020-07-14", 0.67], ["2020-07-14", 0.66], ["2020-07-14", 0.65], ["2020-07-14", 0.65], ["2020-07-15", 0.65], ["2020-07-15", 0.65], ["2020-07-15", 0.65], ["2020-07-15", 0.65], ["2020-07-15", 0.65], ["2020-07-16", 0.65], ["2020-07-16", 0.65], ["2020-07-16", 0.65], ["2020-07-16", 0.645], ["2020-07-16", 0.65], ["2020-07-16", 0.65], ["2020-07-17", 0.65], ["2020-07-17", 0.65], ["2020-07-17", 0.65], ["2020-07-17", 0.645], ["2020-07-17", 0.65], ["2020-07-18", 0.65], ["2020-07-18", 0.67], ["2020-07-18", 0.67], ["2020-07-18", 0.65], ["2020-07-19", 0.66], ["2020-07-19", 0.65], ["2020-07-19", 0.65], ["2020-07-19", 0.67], ["2020-07-19", 0.67], ["2020-07-20", 0.67], ["2020-07-20", 0.67], ["2020-07-20", 0.69], ["2020-07-20", 0.7], ["2020-07-20", 0.7], ["2020-07-20", 0.69], ["2020-07-21", 0.675], ["2020-07-21", 0.675], ["2020-07-21", 0.675], ["2020-07-21", 0.675], ["2020-07-21", 0.68], ["2020-07-21", 0.7], ["2020-07-21", 0.7], ["2020-07-22", 0.7], ["2020-07-22", 0.7], ["2020-07-22", 0.7], ["2020-07-22", 0.7], ["2020-07-22", 0.67], ["2020-07-22", 0.7], ["2020-07-22", 0.71], ["2020-07-23", 0.71], ["2020-07-23", 0.71], ["2020-07-23", 0.71], ["2020-07-23", 0.71], ["2020-07-23", 0.705], ["2020-07-23", 0.705], ["2020-07-23", 0.67], ["2020-07-23", 0.66], ["2020-07-23", 0.66], ["2020-07-23", 0.655], ["2020-07-23", 0.65], ["2020-07-24", 0.65], ["2020-07-24", 0.65], ["2020-07-24", 0.6], ["2020-07-24", 0.6], ["2020-07-24", 0.6], ["2020-07-24", 0.6], ["2020-07-24", 0.6], ["2020-07-24", 0.6], ["2020-07-24", 0.6], ["2020-07-24", 0.6], ["2020-07-24", 0.585], ["2020-07-24", 0.585], ["2020-07-24", 0.6], ["2020-07-24", 0.535], ["2020-07-25", 0.5], ["2020-07-25", 0.5], ["2020-07-25", 0.5], ["2020-07-25", 0.495], ["2020-07-25", 0.47], ["2020-07-25", 0.4], ["2020-07-25", 0.4], ["2020-07-25", 0.4], ["2020-07-26", 0.4], ["2020-07-26", 0.4], ["2020-07-26", 0.4], ["2020-07-26", 0.39], ["2020-07-26", 0.35], ["2020-07-26", 0.35], ["2020-07-26", 0.35], ["2020-07-27", 0.35], ["2020-07-27", 0.35], ["2020-07-27", 0.35], ["2020-07-27", 0.35], ["2020-07-27", 0.35], ["2020-07-27", 0.35], ["2020-07-27", 0.35], ["2020-07-27", 0.35], ["2020-07-28", 0.35], ["2020-07-28", 0.35], ["2020-07-28", 0.35], ["2020-07-28", 0.35], ["2020-07-28", 0.35], ["2020-07-28", 0.35], ["2020-07-28", 0.315], ["2020-07-28", 0.3], ["2020-07-28", 0.29], ["2020-07-29", 0.28], ["2020-07-29", 0.27], ["2020-07-29", 0.27], ["2020-07-29", 0.27], ["2020-07-29", 0.27], ["2020-07-29", 0.27], ["2020-07-29", 0.25], ["2020-07-29", 0.25], ["2020-07-29", 0.25], ["2020-07-29", 0.25], ["2020-07-29", 0.25], ["2020-07-30", 0.25], ["2020-07-30", 0.25], ["2020-07-30", 0.25], ["2020-07-30", 0.27], ["2020-07-30", 0.28], ["2020-07-30", 0.25], ["2020-07-30", 0.25], ["2020-07-30", 0.25], ["2020-07-30", 0.25], ["2020-07-30", 0.25], ["2020-07-30", 0.25], ["2020-07-30", 0.28], ["2020-07-30", 0.28], ["2020-07-30", 0.3], ["2020-07-30", 0.3], ["2020-07-30", 0.3], ["2020-07-30", 0.3], ["2020-07-30", 0.3], ["2020-07-30", 0.3], ["2020-07-30", 0.3], ["2020-07-30", 0.3], ["2020-07-31", 0.3], ["2020-07-31", 0.3], ["2020-07-31", 0.3], ["2020-07-31", 0.3], ["2020-07-31", 0.3], ["2020-07-31", 0.36], ["2020-07-31", 0.39], ["2020-07-31", 0.395], ["2020-07-31", 0.4], ["2020-07-31", 0.425], ["2020-07-31", 0.45], ["2020-07-31", 0.5], ["2020-07-31", 0.5], ["2020-07-31", 0.575], ["2020-07-31", 0.625], ["2020-07-31", 0.625], ["2020-07-31", 0.625], ["2020-07-31", 0.71], ["2020-08-01", 0.79], ["2020-08-01", 0.8], ["2020-08-01", 0.8], ["2020-08-01", 0.8], ["2020-08-01", 0.85], ["2020-08-01", 0.85], ["2020-08-01", 0.85], ["2020-08-01", 0.85], ["2020-08-01", 0.85], ["2020-08-01", 0.9], ["2020-08-01", 0.9], ["2020-08-02", 0.91], ["2020-08-02", 0.91], ["2020-08-02", 0.91], ["2020-08-02", 0.91], ["2020-08-02", 0.91], ["2020-08-02", 0.91], ["2020-08-02", 0.91], ["2020-08-02", 0.91], ["2020-08-02", 0.93], ["2020-08-02", 0.93], ["2020-08-02", 0.93], ["2020-08-02", 0.95], ["2020-08-02", 0.95], ["2020-08-02", 0.95], ["2020-08-02", 0.96], ["2020-08-02", 0.96], ["2020-08-02", 0.96], ["2020-08-02", 0.965], ["2020-08-02", 0.965], ["2020-08-03", 0.965], ["2020-08-03", 0.97], ["2020-08-03", 0.97], ["2020-08-03", 0.98], ["2020-08-03", 0.99], ["2020-08-03", 0.99], ["2020-08-03", 0.99], ["2020-08-03", 0.99], ["2020-08-03", 0.99], ["2020-08-03", 0.99], ["2020-08-03", 0.99], ["2020-08-03", 0.99], ["2020-08-03", 0.99], ["2020-08-03", 0.99], ["2020-08-03", 0.99], ["2020-08-03", 0.99], ["2020-08-03", 0.99], ["2020-08-03", 0.99], ["2020-08-03", 0.99], ["2020-08-03", 0.99], ["2020-08-04", 0.99], ["2020-08-04", 0.99], ["2020-08-04", 0.99], ["2020-08-04", 1.0], ["2020-08-04", 1.0], ["2020-08-04", 1.0], ["2020-08-04", 1.0], ["2020-08-04", 1.0], ["2020-08-04", 1.0], ["2020-08-04", 1.0], ["2020-08-04", 1.0], ["2020-08-04", 1.0], ["2020-08-04", 1.0], ["2020-08-04", 1.0], ["2020-08-05", 1.0], ["2020-08-05", 1.0], ["2020-08-05", 1.0], ["2020-08-05", 1.0]] | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2022-03-04 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2119 |
<p>In 2015, Tsarnaev was sentenced to death for his role in the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing and its aftermath (<a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/jury-reaches-verdict-boston-marathon-bombing-penalty-phase/story?id=31067121" target="_blank">ABC News</a>). The First Circuit Court of Appeals vacated the sentence, finding that the trial court failed to pay sufficient attention to potential jury bias (<a href="https://casetext.com/case/united-states-v-tsarnaev-22" target="_blank">Casetext</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/31/us/boston-marathon-bomber-dzhokhar-tsarnaev-sentence-vacated/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://www.americanbar.org/groups/committees/death_penalty_representation/project_press/2020/fall-2020/tsarnaev-death-sentence-reversed/" target="_blank">American Bar Association</a>). The government appealed, and the Supreme Court agreed in March 2021 to hear the case (<a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2021/20-443" target="_blank">Oyez</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-56482800" target="_blank">BBC</a>). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2021 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-03-04 | In United States v. Tsarnaev, will the Supreme Court reinstate the death sentence imposed against Boston Marathon bomber Dzhokhar Tsarnaev? | 2021-09-09 | [["2021-09-10", 1.0], ["2021-09-10", 0.95], ["2021-09-10", 1.0], ["2021-09-10", 0.95], ["2021-09-10", 1.0], ["2021-09-11", 0.95], ["2021-09-11", 0.91], ["2021-09-11", 0.905], ["2021-09-11", 0.9], ["2021-09-11", 0.875], ["2021-09-11", 0.85], ["2021-09-11", 0.875], ["2021-09-11", 0.9], ["2021-09-11", 0.9], ["2021-09-12", 0.9], ["2021-09-12", 0.875], ["2021-09-12", 0.875], ["2021-09-12", 0.85], ["2021-09-12", 0.825], ["2021-09-12", 0.825], ["2021-09-12", 0.85], ["2021-09-12", 0.825], ["2021-09-12", 0.8], ["2021-09-13", 0.8], ["2021-09-13", 0.825], ["2021-09-13", 0.8], ["2021-09-13", 0.8], ["2021-09-13", 0.775], ["2021-09-13", 0.735], ["2021-09-13", 0.72], ["2021-09-13", 0.71], ["2021-09-13", 0.7], ["2021-09-13", 0.71], ["2021-09-13", 0.71], ["2021-09-14", 0.71], ["2021-09-14", 0.7], ["2021-09-14", 0.7], ["2021-09-14", 0.7], ["2021-09-14", 0.68], 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0.65], ["2021-10-19", 0.675], ["2021-10-20", 0.7], ["2021-10-20", 0.7], ["2021-10-20", 0.7], ["2021-10-20", 0.7], ["2021-10-20", 0.7], ["2021-10-20", 0.72], ["2021-10-22", 0.72], ["2021-10-22", 0.7], ["2021-10-25", 0.7], ["2021-10-27", 0.7], ["2021-10-28", 0.7], ["2021-10-30", 0.7], ["2021-10-31", 0.7], ["2021-10-31", 0.7], ["2021-11-02", 0.705], ["2021-11-07", 0.705], ["2021-11-09", 0.705], ["2021-11-12", 0.705], ["2021-11-14", 0.705], ["2021-11-17", 0.705], ["2021-11-18", 0.705], ["2021-11-22", 0.685], ["2021-11-26", 0.685], ["2021-11-26", 0.685], ["2021-11-28", 0.705], ["2021-11-28", 0.705], ["2021-11-30", 0.705], ["2021-11-30", 0.705], ["2021-12-01", 0.705], ["2021-12-03", 0.71], ["2021-12-03", 0.71], ["2021-12-06", 0.7], ["2021-12-07", 0.7], ["2021-12-07", 0.7], ["2021-12-10", 0.7], ["2021-12-12", 0.7], ["2021-12-12", 0.7], ["2021-12-13", 0.7], ["2021-12-13", 0.685], ["2021-12-14", 0.685], ["2021-12-15", 0.69], ["2021-12-17", 0.69], ["2021-12-18", 0.69], ["2021-12-20", 0.7], ["2021-12-21", 0.705], ["2021-12-21", 0.705], ["2021-12-23", 0.705], ["2021-12-23", 0.705], ["2021-12-23", 0.705], ["2021-12-28", 0.705], ["2021-12-29", 0.705], ["2021-12-29", 0.7], ["2021-12-29", 0.67], ["2022-01-01", 0.67], ["2022-01-01", 0.67], ["2022-01-02", 0.67], ["2022-01-04", 0.66], ["2022-01-04", 0.65], ["2022-01-04", 0.66], ["2022-01-05", 0.66], ["2022-01-05", 0.66], ["2022-01-06", 0.66], ["2022-01-06", 0.66], ["2022-01-06", 0.66], ["2022-01-07", 0.655], ["2022-01-07", 0.655], ["2022-01-07", 0.655], ["2022-01-07", 0.665], ["2022-01-08", 0.665], ["2022-01-08", 0.665], ["2022-01-09", 0.665], ["2022-01-10", 0.665], ["2022-01-11", 0.665], ["2022-01-12", 0.665], ["2022-01-14", 0.665], ["2022-01-16", 0.665], ["2022-01-18", 0.665], ["2022-01-19", 0.665], ["2022-01-20", 0.665], ["2022-01-20", 0.665], ["2022-01-21", 0.665], ["2022-01-26", 0.665], ["2022-01-26", 0.665], ["2022-01-27", 0.665], ["2022-01-29", 0.665], ["2022-01-31", 0.66], ["2022-02-02", 0.66], ["2022-02-05", 0.66], ["2022-02-10", 0.67], ["2022-02-14", 0.67], ["2022-02-20", 0.67], ["2022-02-22", 0.665], ["2022-02-23", 0.665], ["2022-03-04", 0.665]] | ["https://www.boston25news.com/news/local/boston-marathon-bomber-dzhokhar-tsarnaev-got-1400-covid-relief-payment/BVKRJUHHHVEIFBVS5IM3INNDNI/", "http://library.law.virginia.edu/gorsuchproject/u-s-v-summers/", "https://www.annenbergclassroom.org/resource/right-trial-impartial-jury/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1332858", "https://scholarship.law.wm.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1038&context=wmborj", "https://www.apa.org/monitor/2021/06/jn", "https://www.boston.com/news/community/2021/06/25/heres-how-1000-boston-com-readers-feel-about-the-death-penalty-for-dzhokhar-tsarnaev/", "https://www.lexisnexis.com/community/casebrief/p/casebrief-skilling-v-united-states", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1333052", "https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/date-set-for-supreme-court-to-hear-boston-marathon-bomber-death-penalty-case/2428758/", "https://ballotpedia.org/SCOTUS_case_reversal_rates_(2007_-_Present", "https://www.scotusblog.com/2021/10/justices-appear-to-favor-reinstating-death-penalty-for-boston-marathon-bomber/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2021-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1559 |
<p>The spread of desert locusts in East Africa is testing an already food-insecure region (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-51501832" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/26/usaid-mark-green-locust-swarms-east-africa/" target="_blank">Foreign Policy</a>, <a href="http://www.fao.org/ag/locusts/en/info/info/index.html" target="_blank">Food and Agriculture Organization</a>). For general information on how famines are declared, see: <a href="http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/ipc-alerts/issue-18/en/" target="_blank">Integrated Food Security Phase Classification</a>, <a href="http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean" target="_blank">NPR</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-01-04 | Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Tanzania, or Uganda in 2020? | 2020-03-12 | [["2020-03-13", 0.305], ["2020-03-13", 0.43], ["2020-03-13", 0.43], ["2020-03-14", 0.5], ["2020-03-14", 0.5], ["2020-03-14", 0.5], ["2020-03-14", 0.5], ["2020-03-14", 0.535], ["2020-03-15", 0.535], ["2020-03-15", 0.535], ["2020-03-15", 0.57], ["2020-03-15", 0.57], ["2020-03-15", 0.59], ["2020-03-16", 0.65], ["2020-03-16", 0.665], ["2020-03-16", 0.65], ["2020-03-16", 0.65], ["2020-03-17", 0.65], ["2020-03-17", 0.6], ["2020-03-17", 0.525], ["2020-03-18", 0.6], ["2020-03-19", 0.55], ["2020-03-19", 0.625], ["2020-03-19", 0.575], ["2020-03-19", 0.62], ["2020-03-19", 0.65], ["2020-03-19", 0.65], ["2020-03-20", 0.65], ["2020-03-20", 0.65], ["2020-03-20", 0.675], ["2020-03-20", 0.675], ["2020-03-21", 0.65], ["2020-03-21", 0.65], ["2020-03-21", 0.65], ["2020-03-22", 0.65], ["2020-03-22", 0.65], ["2020-03-22", 0.675], ["2020-03-22", 0.65], ["2020-03-22", 0.65], ["2020-03-23", 0.645], ["2020-03-24", 0.645], ["2020-03-24", 0.65], ["2020-03-25", 0.645], ["2020-03-25", 0.65], ["2020-03-25", 0.655], ["2020-03-25", 0.66], ["2020-03-26", 0.655], ["2020-03-26", 0.665], ["2020-03-26", 0.685], ["2020-03-27", 0.67], ["2020-03-27", 0.675], ["2020-03-28", 0.68], ["2020-03-29", 0.66], ["2020-03-30", 0.665], ["2020-03-30", 0.66], ["2020-04-01", 0.65], 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"https://apnews.com/article/ethiopia-abiy-ahmed-kenya-0fb8647516d9be83d45fee2f1e4d13ae", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethiopia-conflict/ethiopias-war-scarred-tigray-region-regains-some-services-idUSKBN28O1N8", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/18/the-war-in-tigray-is-a-fight-over-ethiopias-past-and-future/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/12/11/ethiopia-tigray-un-attack-aid-civilians/", "https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/28/africa/ethiopia-tigray-bombardment-intl/index.html"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-03-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2339 |
<p>The US Senate rejected a $15.00 an hour federal minimum wage proposal, but there are still pushes for a raise (<a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/541826-senate-rejects-sanders-15-minimum-wage-hike" target="_blank">The Hill</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/02/biden-touts-more-aid-for-families-in-his-state-of-the-union-address.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>). The current federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hour (<a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/29/206" target="_blank">Cornell - 29 USC § 206</a>, <a href="https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/minimum-wage" target="_blank">US Department of Labor</a>). The effective date of a raise would be immaterial.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-03-01 | Will legislation raising the US federal minimum wage from $7.25 an hour become law before 1 March 2023? | 2022-04-05 | [["2022-04-06", 1.0], ["2022-04-06", 1.0], ["2022-04-06", 0.96], ["2022-04-06", 0.72], ["2022-04-06", 0.745], ["2022-04-06", 0.7375], ["2022-04-06", 0.75], ["2022-04-06", 0.655], ["2022-04-06", 0.6683333333333333], ["2022-04-06", 0.7157142857142857], ["2022-04-06", 0.71875], ["2022-04-06", 0.75], ["2022-04-06", 0.775], ["2022-04-06", 0.775], ["2022-04-06", 0.715], ["2022-04-06", 0.727], ["2022-04-06", 0.785], ["2022-04-06", 0.782], ["2022-04-06", 0.754], ["2022-04-06", 0.749], ["2022-04-06", 0.75], ["2022-04-06", 0.701], ["2022-04-06", 0.671], ["2022-04-06", 0.648], ["2022-04-06", 0.659], ["2022-04-06", 0.639], ["2022-04-06", 0.574], ["2022-04-06", 0.579], ["2022-04-06", 0.5763636363636364], ["2022-04-06", 0.59], ["2022-04-06", 0.5591666666666667], 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["2023-02-27", 0.0458], ["2023-02-28", 0.0455], ["2023-02-28", 0.0455], ["2023-02-28", 0.0454], ["2023-02-28", 0.0453], ["2023-02-28", 0.0453], ["2023-02-28", 0.0453], ["2023-02-28", 0.0448], ["2023-03-01", 0.0448], ["2023-03-01", 0.0448]] | ["https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/22/wages-rise-at-the-fastest-pace-in-years-firms-profits-could-take-a-hit.html", "https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/national/dbm-raising-minimum-wage-of-gov-e2-80-99t-workers-requires-legislation/ar-AA14uYxy", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1499427", "https://www.ncsl.org/research/labor-and-employment/state-minimum-wage-chart.aspx#:~:text=Five%20states%20have%20not%20adopted,of%20%247.25%20per%20hour%20applies", "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/minimum-wage-proposal-mitt-romney-kyrsten-sinema/", "https://www.mayerbrown.com/en/perspectives-events/publications/2022/02/minimum-wage-for-us-federal-contractors-raised-to-$15-on-january-30-immediately-challenged-by-several-states", "https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/541826-senate-rejects-sanders-15-minimum-wage-hike/", "https://www.nelp.org/publication/raises-from-coast-to-coast-in-2023/", "https://www.congress.gov/committee/house-education-and-the-workforce/hsed00", "https://content.rollcall.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/2023CQRCCongressionalCalendar.pdf", "https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/minimum-wage/history/chart"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-12-30 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2156 |
<p>While cryptocurrency ETFs have been authorized in other jurisdictions, attempts to create a crypto ETF in the US continue (<a href="https://www.theblockcrypto.com/linked/119365/sec-rolls-decisions-on-four-bitcoin-etf-applications-to-end-of-2021" target="_blank">The Block</a>, <a href="https://www.cp24.com/news/canadian-funds-move-forward-with-bitcoin-etfs-after-regulatory-jockeying-1.5309984" target="_blank">CP24</a>, <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/crypto-clash-grayscales-ceo-says-secs-gensler-shortsighted-in-backing-a-bitcoin-futures-etf-11633271596" target="_blank">MarketWatch</a>). ETFs for cryptocurrency derivatives (e.g., futures) or of firms that have cryptocurrency exposure would not count. Whether an ETF includes one or several cryptocurrencies would be immaterial, but stablecoins and/or central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) would not count (<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stablecoin.asp" target="_blank">Investopedia - Stablecoin</a>, <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/central-bank-digital-currency-cbdc.asp" target="_blank">Investopedia - CBDC</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-01-01 | Will a cryptocurrency exchange-traded fund (ETF) trade on the NYSE and/or NASDAQ stock exchanges before 31 December 2022? | 2021-10-08 | [["2021-10-08", 0.1], ["2021-10-08", 0.55], ["2021-10-08", 0.6], ["2021-10-08", 0.7], ["2021-10-08", 0.598], ["2021-10-09", 0.665], ["2021-10-09", 0.7128571428571429], ["2021-10-09", 0.69875], ["2021-10-09", 0.7322222222222222], ["2021-10-10", 0.669], ["2021-10-10", 0.674], ["2021-10-10", 0.596], ["2021-10-10", 0.622], ["2021-10-11", 0.582], ["2021-10-11", 0.613], ["2021-10-11", 0.613], ["2021-10-11", 0.587], ["2021-10-11", 0.627], ["2021-10-11", 0.627], ["2021-10-11", 0.621], ["2021-10-12", 0.706], ["2021-10-12", 0.784], ["2021-10-12", 0.763], ["2021-10-12", 0.704], ["2021-10-12", 0.654], ["2021-10-13", 0.6754545454545454], ["2021-10-13", 0.6445454545454545], ["2021-10-13", 0.6227272727272727], ["2021-10-13", 0.5936363636363636], 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"https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/cboebzx/2022/34-94080.pdf", "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001853419/000092963821001329/s1.htm", "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sec-chair-gensler-reiterates-concern-over-investor-protection-despite-optimism-for-more-bitcoin-et-fs-172731741.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-03/sec-s-gensler-doubles-down-on-concerns-about-spot-bitcoin-etfs?sref=wUBMASPo", "https://www.nasdaq.com/crypto-Index", "https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/04/06/sec-approves-teucriums-bitcoin-futures-etf/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-15/bitcoin-futures-etf-said-not-to-face-sec-opposition-at-deadline?srnd=premium&sref=nXmOg68r", "https://www.theblockcrypto.com/post/42711/bitwises-bitcoin-etf-the-last-hope-has-been-denied", "https://www.theblockcrypto.com/linked/119365/sec-rolls-decisions-on-four-bitcoin-etf-applications-to-end-of-2021", "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/18/first-bitcoin-futures-etf-to-make-its-debut-on-the-nyse-tuesday-proshares-says.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-12/sec-rejects-vaneck-s-bitcoin-etf-application-to-trade-on-cboe?sref=wUBMASPo", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/gary-gensler-focuses-on-crypto-trading-platforms-in-senate-hearing-11631640427?mod=article_inline", "https://www.barrons.com/articles/changes-are-coming-to-financial-regulation-what-it-means-for-investors-51612441800", "https://www.sec.gov/comments/sr-nysearca-2019-01/srnysearca201901-5164833-183434.pdf", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-2-trillion-cryptocurrency-market-is-drawing-interest-from-investors-scrutiny-from-u-s-regulators-11641119404?mod=article_inline", "https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8450-21", "https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/fidelity-launches-crypto-metaverse-etfs", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierpaz/2022/08/26/more-than-half-of-all-bitcoin-trades-are-fake/", "https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/crypto-etfs-could-be-compelling-in-2022"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2024-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2868 |
<p>Abdoulaye Bathily, head of the UN Support Mission in Libya, has said that elections in the war-torn country are possible in 2023, though obstacles remain (<a href="https://press.un.org/en/2023/sc15261.doc.htm" target="_blank">UN Security Council</a>, <a href="https://libyaherald.com/2023/04/libyas-new-dynamic-and-momentum-towards-elections-must-be-maintained-unsmil-head-bathily/" target="_blank">Libya Herald</a>, <a href="https://www.usip.org/publications/2023/04/beyond-elections-libya-needs-unified-institutions-and-reconciliation" target="_blank">US Institute of Peace</a>). The holding of either presidential or parliamentary elections would count. The question would close early upon an official announcement from the UN that elections will not take place in 2023.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. 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True | 2020-07-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1418 |
<p>Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for the reform of Chile’s pension system have grown (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chile-protests-pensions/chiles-fiery-anger-fueled-by-fears-of-poverty-in-old-age-idUSKBN1XB3U8" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle" target="_blank">IPE</a>, <a href="https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2019/06/08/chile-tinkers-with-its-ground-breaking-pensions-system" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.eiu.com/industry/article/1898259973/chiles-pension-reform-makes-progress/2019-07-23" target="_blank">Economist Intelligence Unit</a>, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a" target="_blank">Financial Times</a>). Examples of nationalization include, but are not limited to, the enactment of legislation compelling the divestiture or transfer of privately held pension funds to a public entity or the state, or a constitutional amendment to the same effect. The date or dates of actual asset nationalization would be immaterial.</p><p>Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1412, which closes in 2021 (<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1412" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Question #1412</a>). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates.<br></p><p style="margin-bottom:10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;line-height: 0;vertical-align: baseline;">Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(22, 107, 118);">ask us for help</a>.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>
| 2020-07-02 | Before 1 July 2020, will the Chilean government pass legislation nationalizing private pension fund assets? | 2019-12-11 | [["2019-12-11", 0.65], ["2019-12-11", 0.35], ["2019-12-11", 0.3], ["2019-12-12", 0.35], ["2019-12-12", 0.3], ["2019-12-12", 0.25], ["2019-12-12", 0.175], ["2019-12-12", 0.175], ["2019-12-12", 0.1], ["2019-12-13", 0.05], ["2019-12-13", 0.05], ["2019-12-13", 0.1], ["2019-12-13", 0.095], ["2019-12-13", 0.14], ["2019-12-14", 0.13], ["2019-12-14", 0.14], ["2019-12-15", 0.09], ["2019-12-15", 0.09], ["2019-12-15", 0.09], ["2019-12-16", 0.085], ["2019-12-17", 0.075], ["2019-12-18", 0.075], ["2019-12-18", 0.075], ["2019-12-18", 0.075], ["2019-12-18", 0.1], ["2019-12-19", 0.095], ["2019-12-19", 0.09], ["2019-12-20", 0.09], ["2019-12-20", 0.065], ["2019-12-20", 0.05], ["2019-12-21", 0.035], ["2019-12-21", 0.05], ["2019-12-22", 0.05], ["2019-12-22", 0.035], ["2019-12-23", 0.035], ["2019-12-24", 0.035], ["2019-12-26", 0.025], ["2019-12-27", 0.02], ["2019-12-28", 0.025], ["2019-12-28", 0.02], ["2019-12-28", 0.02], ["2019-12-29", 0.02], ["2019-12-30", 0.02], ["2019-12-30", 0.02], ["2019-12-30", 0.02], ["2019-12-30", 0.015], ["2019-12-30", 0.035], ["2019-12-31", 0.05], ["2020-01-01", 0.05], ["2020-01-02", 0.05], ["2020-01-03", 0.05], ["2020-01-03", 0.05], ["2020-01-04", 0.05], ["2020-01-08", 0.05], ["2020-01-10", 0.05], ["2020-01-11", 0.05], ["2020-01-12", 0.03], ["2020-01-13", 0.01], ["2020-01-13", 0.01], ["2020-01-14", 0.01], ["2020-01-14", 0.0], ["2020-01-14", 0.0], ["2020-01-16", 0.0], ["2020-01-18", 0.0], ["2020-01-19", 0.0], ["2020-01-19", 0.0], ["2020-01-19", 0.0], ["2020-01-22", 0.0], ["2020-01-23", 0.0], ["2020-01-24", 0.0], ["2020-01-28", 0.0], ["2020-01-29", 0.0], ["2020-01-30", 0.0], ["2020-01-30", 0.0], ["2020-02-02", 0.0], ["2020-02-04", 0.0], ["2020-02-04", 0.0], ["2020-02-06", 0.0], ["2020-02-06", 0.0], ["2020-02-08", 0.0], ["2020-02-11", 0.0], ["2020-02-13", 0.0], ["2020-02-15", 0.0], ["2020-02-15", 0.0], ["2020-02-15", 0.0], ["2020-02-16", 0.0], ["2020-02-18", 0.0], ["2020-02-19", 0.0], ["2020-02-19", 0.0], ["2020-02-19", 0.0], ["2020-02-20", 0.005], ["2020-02-20", 0.005], ["2020-02-20", 0.01], ["2020-02-22", 0.01], ["2020-02-25", 0.01], ["2020-02-25", 0.02], ["2020-03-01", 0.02], ["2020-03-02", 0.02], ["2020-03-09", 0.02], ["2020-03-13", 0.02], ["2020-03-13", 0.015], ["2020-03-13", 0.035], ["2020-03-17", 0.015], ["2020-03-19", 0.015], ["2020-03-20", 0.015], ["2020-03-21", 0.015], ["2020-03-23", 0.02], ["2020-03-23", 0.05], ["2020-03-23", 0.05], ["2020-03-24", 0.035], ["2020-03-25", 0.035], ["2020-03-25", 0.02], ["2020-03-26", 0.02], ["2020-03-29", 0.02], ["2020-03-31", 0.02], ["2020-04-01", 0.015], ["2020-04-01", 0.015], ["2020-04-03", 0.015], ["2020-04-04", 0.01], ["2020-04-06", 0.01], ["2020-04-06", 0.01], ["2020-04-09", 0.01], ["2020-04-09", 0.01], ["2020-04-14", 0.01], ["2020-04-14", 0.01], ["2020-04-15", 0.01], ["2020-04-15", 0.0], ["2020-04-17", 0.0], ["2020-04-17", 0.0], ["2020-04-19", 0.0], ["2020-04-19", 0.0], ["2020-04-19", 0.0], ["2020-04-19", 0.005], ["2020-04-19", 0.0], ["2020-04-20", 0.0], ["2020-04-23", 0.0], ["2020-04-27", 0.0], ["2020-04-29", 0.0], ["2020-04-29", 0.0], ["2020-05-01", 0.0], ["2020-05-02", 0.0], ["2020-05-02", 0.0], ["2020-05-03", 0.0], ["2020-05-03", 0.0], ["2020-05-05", 0.0], ["2020-05-06", 0.0], ["2020-05-08", 0.0], ["2020-05-08", 0.0], ["2020-05-09", 0.0], ["2020-05-11", 0.0], ["2020-05-12", 0.0], ["2020-05-14", 0.0], ["2020-05-18", 0.0], ["2020-05-19", 0.0], ["2020-05-19", 0.0], ["2020-05-19", 0.0], ["2020-05-20", 0.0], ["2020-05-20", 0.0], ["2020-05-21", 0.0], ["2020-05-21", 0.0], ["2020-05-21", 0.0], ["2020-05-22", 0.0], ["2020-05-22", 0.0], ["2020-05-22", 0.0], ["2020-05-23", 0.0], ["2020-05-25", 0.0], ["2020-05-25", 0.0], ["2020-05-26", 0.0], ["2020-05-26", 0.0], ["2020-05-29", 0.0], ["2020-06-01", 0.0], ["2020-06-01", 0.0], ["2020-06-01", 0.0], ["2020-06-02", 0.0], ["2020-06-02", 0.0], ["2020-06-02", 0.0], ["2020-06-02", 0.0], 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["2020-06-23", 0.0], ["2020-06-23", 0.0], ["2020-06-24", 0.0], ["2020-06-25", 0.0], ["2020-06-25", 0.0], ["2020-06-27", 0.0], ["2020-06-27", 0.0], ["2020-06-28", 0.0], ["2020-06-28", 0.0], ["2020-06-28", 0.0], ["2020-06-29", 0.0], ["2020-06-30", 0.0], ["2020-06-30", 0.0], ["2020-06-30", 0.0], ["2020-07-01", 0.0], ["2020-07-01", 0.0]] | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-07-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1962 |
<p>After a technical failure marred a test flight in December 2019, Boeing is pushing ahead to get its Starliner into orbit to dock with the ISS (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/there-will-be-lots-of-new-space-missions-in-2021" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.boeing.com/space/starliner/" target="_blank">Boeing</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-exploration-boeing/boeings-botched-starliner-test-flirted-with-catastrophic-failure-nasa-panel-idUSKBN20106A" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://www.space.com/boeing-2nd-starliner-test-flight-launch-delayed" target="_blank">Space.com</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-07-01 | Will a Boeing Starliner spacecraft dock with the International Space Station (ISS) before 1 July 2021? | 2021-03-12 | [["2021-03-12", 0.0], ["2021-03-12", 0.025], ["2021-03-12", 0.01], ["2021-03-12", 0.015], ["2021-03-12", 0.01], ["2021-03-12", 0.015], ["2021-03-12", 0.02], ["2021-03-12", 0.015], ["2021-03-13", 0.01], ["2021-03-13", 0.01], ["2021-03-13", 0.01], ["2021-03-13", 0.01], ["2021-03-13", 0.01], ["2021-03-13", 0.01], ["2021-03-13", 0.01], ["2021-03-13", 0.005], ["2021-03-13", 0.01], ["2021-03-13", 0.01], ["2021-03-13", 0.01], ["2021-03-13", 0.005], ["2021-03-13", 0.01], ["2021-03-13", 0.01], ["2021-03-13", 0.01], ["2021-03-13", 0.01], ["2021-03-13", 0.01], ["2021-03-13", 0.01], ["2021-03-14", 0.01], ["2021-03-14", 0.01], ["2021-03-14", 0.01], ["2021-03-14", 0.01], ["2021-03-14", 0.01], ["2021-03-15", 0.01], ["2021-03-15", 0.01], ["2021-03-15", 0.01], ["2021-03-15", 0.01], ["2021-03-15", 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["2021-06-29", 0.0], ["2021-06-30", 0.0], ["2021-06-30", 0.0], ["2021-07-01", 0.0]] | ["https://spaceflightnow.com/2021/03/02/boeings-next-starliner-test-flight-delayed-after-spacex-crew-rotation/", "https://spacepolicyonline.com/events/boeing-starliner-oft-2-uncrewed-flight-test-mar-29-2021/#:~:text=Original%20Entry%3A%20NASA%20and%20Boeing,flight%20on%20March%2029%2C%202021", "https://mobile.twitter.com/BoeingSpace/status/1383399212163878915", "https://www.nasa.gov/launchschedule/", "https://bgr.com/science/starliner-delay-boeing-nasa-5910213/", "https://starlinerupdates.com/boeing-and-nasa-update-launch-target-for-next-starliner-test-flight/", "https://www.space.com/boeing-starliner-oft-2-test-launch-delayed-summer-2021", "https://spacenews.com/next-starliner-test-flights-slips-to-late-summer/", "https://www.americaspace.com/2021/03/05/starliners-oft-2-launch-date-under-review-ahead-of-busy-april-at-space-station/", "https://spaceflightnow.com/2021/02/20/launch-of-starliner-test-flight-slips-to-april-2/", "https://blogs.nasa.gov/commercialcrew/2021/03/04/nasa-and-boeing-evaluating-launch-date-for-orbital-flight-test-2/", "https://twitter.com/ulalaunch/status/1400800541198934017", "https://www.cnet.com/news/nasa-and-boeing-tweak-launch-date-for-starliner-do-over-mission-to-the-iss/", "https://observer.com/2021/04/boeing-starliner-delay-due-to-spacex-crew-dragon-iss-schedule/", "https://spacenews.com/starliner-test-flight-scheduled-for-july-30/", "https://spaceflightnow.com/2021/03/18/sis-green-run-hot-fire-mission-status-center/", "https://www.cnet.com/news/nasa-boeing-set-new-launch-date-for-starliner-do-over-mission-to-the-iss/", "https://phys.org/news/2021-05-boeing-starliner-capsule-aiming-july.html", "https://www.kennedyspacecenter.com/launches-and-events/events-calendar?pageindex=1", "https://spaceflightnow.com/launch-schedule/", "https://blogs.nasa.gov/commercialcrew/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Orbital_Flight_Test_2", "https://blogs.nasa.gov/commercialcrew/category/boeing/", "https://www.iatanews.com/2021/03/17/the-space-launch-system-nasas-last-rocket/", "https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/04/it-now-seems-likely-that-starliner-will-not-launch-crew-until-early-2022/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2024-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2862 |
<p>Drought, conflict, and other factors have left millions in Yemen and the Horn of Africa facing potential famine (<a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/12/05/1139836511/the-worlds-response-to-hunger-crisis-in-east-africa-is-inadequate-say-aid-worker" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/horn-of-africa-drought-trends-looking-worse-than-2011-famine" target="_blank">PBS</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29319423" target="_blank">BBC</a>). For the purposes of this question, the countries in the Horn of Africa are Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda (<a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Horn-of-Africa" target="_blank">Britannica</a>). For general information on how famines are declared, see: <a href="http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean" target="_blank">NPR</a>. The reporting of famine conditions without a UN famine declaration would not count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2024-01-02 | Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen or a country in the Horn of Africa before 1 January 2024? | 2023-04-21 | [["2023-04-21", 0.07], ["2023-04-21", 0.11], ["2023-04-21", 0.12], ["2023-04-22", 0.315], ["2023-04-22", 0.252], ["2023-04-22", 0.21], ["2023-04-22", 0.18], ["2023-04-22", 0.2488], ["2023-04-22", 0.2433], ["2023-04-22", 0.269], ["2023-04-22", 0.2445], ["2023-04-22", 0.2908], ["2023-04-22", 0.28], ["2023-04-22", 0.2743], ["2023-04-22", 0.3133], ["2023-04-22", 0.3227], ["2023-04-23", 0.3119], ["2023-04-23", 0.2947], ["2023-04-23", 0.3267], ["2023-04-23", 0.3305], ["2023-04-23", 0.3284], ["2023-04-24", 0.3445], ["2023-04-24", 0.3457], ["2023-04-24", 0.3368], ["2023-04-24", 0.3659], ["2023-04-24", 0.3774], ["2023-04-24", 0.38], ["2023-04-25", 0.3814], ["2023-04-26", 0.449], ["2023-04-28", 0.4373], ["2023-04-28", 0.4491], ["2023-04-29", 0.4242], 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["2023-07-04", 0.2373], ["2023-07-06", 0.2093], ["2023-07-06", 0.2127], ["2023-07-06", 0.2113], ["2023-07-07", 0.182], ["2023-07-08", 0.1793], ["2023-07-12", 0.1787], ["2023-07-13", 0.1773], ["2023-07-13", 0.1663], ["2023-07-19", 0.1663], ["2023-07-19", 0.1656], ["2023-07-21", 0.1631], ["2023-07-24", 0.1619], ["2023-07-25", 0.1606], ["2023-07-29", 0.1594], ["2023-07-31", 0.1581], ["2023-08-01", 0.1569], ["2023-08-02", 0.1538], ["2023-08-02", 0.1531], ["2023-08-03", 0.1506], ["2023-08-04", 0.115], ["2023-08-05", 0.1138], ["2023-08-06", 0.1244], ["2023-08-07", 0.1219], ["2023-08-08", 0.1206], ["2023-08-16", 0.1169], ["2023-08-19", 0.1125], ["2023-08-22", 0.0919], ["2023-08-24", 0.0919], ["2023-08-24", 0.0838], ["2023-08-26", 0.0819], ["2023-08-26", 0.0819], ["2023-08-27", 0.0719], ["2023-08-28", 0.07], ["2023-08-29", 0.0688], ["2023-08-31", 0.0656], ["2023-09-01", 0.0631], ["2023-09-01", 0.0625], ["2023-09-06", 0.0625], ["2023-09-08", 0.06], ["2023-09-08", 0.06], ["2023-09-08", 0.06], 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0.1212], ["2023-11-24", 0.1206], ["2023-11-28", 0.12], ["2023-11-29", 0.12], ["2023-12-02", 0.12], ["2023-12-03", 0.12], ["2023-12-03", 0.12], ["2023-12-06", 0.12], ["2023-12-09", 0.1133], ["2023-12-10", 0.1133], ["2023-12-11", 0.1133], ["2023-12-12", 0.1133], ["2023-12-12", 0.1133], ["2023-12-16", 0.1133], ["2023-12-17", 0.1133], ["2023-12-19", 0.1133], ["2023-12-19", 0.1133], ["2023-12-28", 0.1128], ["2023-12-29", 0.1128], ["2023-12-30", 0.1128], ["2023-12-30", 0.1122], ["2024-01-01", 0.1122]] | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Sudanese_refugee_crisis", "https://data.humdata.org/visualization/horn-of-africa-humanitarian-operations/?layer=chirps-rainfall-marmay", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-says-russia-considering-withdrawal-grain-deal-2023-06-13/", "https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/no-chance-extending-grain-deal-set-expire-july-kremlin", "https://fews.net/east-africa", "https://reliefweb.int/report/sudan/sudans-crisis-escalates-fragile-region-feels-fallout", "https://www.unocha.org/horn", "https://sonna.so/en/somali-president-declares-second-phase-of-anti-al-shabab-offensive-operations/", "https://reliefweb.int/report/ethiopia/horn-africa-drought-regional-humanitarian-overview-call-action-revised-26-may-2023", "https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/05/1136517", "https://fews.net/", "https://nation.africa/africa/news/amhara-clashes-give-ethiopia-fresh-ethnic-nationalism-headache--4342086", "https://fews.net/east-africa/south-sudan", "https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/news-feature/2023/06/13/aid-slow-northern-somalia-las-anod-fighting", "https://press.un.org/en/2023/sc15377.doc.htm", "https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/the-sudan--food-security-crisis-intensifies-amid-ongoing-conflict-and-economic-challenges/en", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/25/un-conference-pledges-fall-short-of-7bn-goal-for-horn-of-africa", "https://fews.net/topics/special/horn-africa", "https://www.ipcinfo.org/fileadmin/user_upload/ipcinfo/docs/IPC_Sudan_Acute_Food_Insecurity_Jun2023_Feb2024_report.pdf", "https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/08/1139387", "https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/18/business/ukraine-russia-grain-deal-extended-wheat-prices/index.html", "https://news.un.org/en/tags/famine", "https://www.garoweonline.com/en/news/somalia/somalia-ready-for-withdrawal-of-au-forces-says-hassan-sheikh", "https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/darfur-cities-under-fire-sudanese-war-spreads-2023-06-14/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2020-11-03 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1747 |
<p>In 1996, California voters approved Proposition 209, which states that California "shall not discriminate against, or grant preferential treatment to, any individual or group on the basis of race, sex, color, ethnicity, or national origin in the operation of public employment, public education, or public contracting" (<a href="https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=CONS&sectionNum=SEC.%2031.&article=I" target="_blank">California Legislature</a>). The California state legislature referred the question of its repeal (<a href="https://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_16,_Repeal_Proposition_209_Affirmative_Action_Amendment_(2020)" target="_blank">Ballotpedia</a>, <a href="https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201920200ACA5" target="_blank">California Legislature</a>, <a href="https://spectrumnews1.com/ca/la-west/inside-the-issues/2020/08/10/affirmative-action-could-come-back-to-california-in-november--but-not-everyone-supports-it" target="_blank">Spectrum News</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2020-11-05 | Will California voters approve Proposition 16 (Repeal Proposition 209 Affirmative Action Amendment)? | 2020-08-18 | [["2020-08-18", 0.5], ["2020-08-18", 0.745], ["2020-08-18", 0.75], ["2020-08-18", 0.51], ["2020-08-18", 0.28], ["2020-08-18", 0.49], ["2020-08-18", 0.27], ["2020-08-19", 0.49], ["2020-08-19", 0.27], ["2020-08-19", 0.49], ["2020-08-19", 0.28], ["2020-08-19", 0.28], ["2020-08-19", 0.28], ["2020-08-19", 0.55], ["2020-08-19", 0.63], ["2020-08-19", 0.63], ["2020-08-19", 0.705], ["2020-08-19", 0.705], ["2020-08-19", 0.705], ["2020-08-19", 0.73], ["2020-08-19", 0.73], ["2020-08-19", 0.73], ["2020-08-19", 0.78], ["2020-08-19", 0.83], ["2020-08-20", 0.9], ["2020-08-20", 0.8], ["2020-08-20", 0.9], ["2020-08-20", 0.8], ["2020-08-20", 0.8], ["2020-08-20", 0.85], ["2020-08-20", 0.925], ["2020-08-20", 0.925], ["2020-08-20", 0.9], ["2020-08-21", 0.875], ["2020-08-21", 0.875], ["2020-08-21", 0.875], ["2020-08-21", 0.875], ["2020-08-21", 0.915], ["2020-08-21", 0.9], ["2020-08-21", 0.85], ["2020-08-21", 0.9], ["2020-08-21", 0.9], ["2020-08-21", 0.875], ["2020-08-21", 0.905], ["2020-08-21", 0.905], ["2020-08-21", 0.88], ["2020-08-22", 0.78], ["2020-08-22", 0.78], ["2020-08-22", 0.91], ["2020-08-22", 0.91], ["2020-08-23", 0.91], ["2020-08-23", 0.91], ["2020-08-23", 0.75], ["2020-08-23", 0.91], ["2020-08-24", 0.83], ["2020-08-25", 0.83], ["2020-08-26", 0.71], ["2020-08-27", 0.73], ["2020-08-28", 0.73], ["2020-08-28", 0.71], ["2020-08-30", 0.71], ["2020-09-01", 0.75], ["2020-09-02", 0.73], ["2020-09-04", 0.73], ["2020-09-04", 0.75], ["2020-09-04", 0.77], ["2020-09-06", 0.75], ["2020-09-06", 0.75], ["2020-09-07", 0.75], ["2020-09-08", 0.71], ["2020-09-08", 0.75], ["2020-09-14", 0.75], ["2020-09-16", 0.75], ["2020-09-17", 0.75], ["2020-09-17", 0.75], ["2020-09-20", 0.75], ["2020-09-22", 0.7], ["2020-09-23", 0.7], ["2020-09-24", 0.7], ["2020-09-24", 0.71], ["2020-09-24", 0.71], ["2020-09-25", 0.71], ["2020-09-28", 0.735], ["2020-09-29", 0.72], ["2020-09-29", 0.72], ["2020-10-02", 0.72], ["2020-10-02", 0.72], ["2020-10-02", 0.7], ["2020-10-04", 0.7], ["2020-10-05", 0.7], ["2020-10-05", 0.7], ["2020-10-06", 0.7], ["2020-10-06", 0.7], ["2020-10-07", 0.7], ["2020-10-08", 0.7], ["2020-10-08", 0.7], ["2020-10-08", 0.595], ["2020-10-09", 0.675], ["2020-10-09", 0.675], ["2020-10-11", 0.57], ["2020-10-11", 0.57], ["2020-10-12", 0.57], ["2020-10-12", 0.57], ["2020-10-13", 0.57], ["2020-10-13", 0.65], ["2020-10-13", 0.65], ["2020-10-14", 0.65], ["2020-10-14", 0.65], ["2020-10-14", 0.65], ["2020-10-14", 0.65], ["2020-10-14", 0.65], ["2020-10-15", 0.65], ["2020-10-15", 0.65], ["2020-10-16", 0.65], ["2020-10-17", 0.65], ["2020-10-19", 0.65], ["2020-10-19", 0.65], ["2020-10-19", 0.57], ["2020-10-19", 0.57], ["2020-10-20", 0.49], ["2020-10-21", 0.49], ["2020-10-21", 0.45], ["2020-10-21", 0.45], ["2020-10-21", 0.45], ["2020-10-21", 0.45], ["2020-10-22", 0.45], ["2020-10-22", 0.4], ["2020-10-22", 0.4], ["2020-10-23", 0.4], ["2020-10-23", 0.4], ["2020-10-23", 0.38], ["2020-10-23", 0.38], ["2020-10-23", 0.36], ["2020-10-23", 0.3], ["2020-10-24", 0.25], ["2020-10-24", 0.25], ["2020-10-24", 0.25], ["2020-10-24", 0.25], ["2020-10-24", 0.25], ["2020-10-25", 0.25], ["2020-10-25", 0.25], ["2020-10-25", 0.25], ["2020-10-25", 0.2], ["2020-10-25", 0.2], ["2020-10-25", 0.2], ["2020-10-25", 0.2], ["2020-10-26", 0.2], ["2020-10-26", 0.2], ["2020-10-26", 0.2], ["2020-10-27", 0.2], ["2020-10-27", 0.15], ["2020-10-27", 0.15], ["2020-10-27", 0.15], ["2020-10-28", 0.15], ["2020-10-28", 0.15], ["2020-10-28", 0.1], ["2020-10-28", 0.1], ["2020-10-28", 0.1], ["2020-10-28", 0.095], ["2020-10-28", 0.1], ["2020-10-28", 0.1], ["2020-10-29", 0.1], ["2020-10-29", 0.1], ["2020-10-29", 0.095], ["2020-10-29", 0.095], ["2020-10-29", 0.07], ["2020-10-29", 0.06], ["2020-10-29", 0.06], ["2020-10-29", 0.06], ["2020-10-30", 0.06], ["2020-10-30", 0.05], ["2020-10-30", 0.05], ["2020-10-31", 0.05], ["2020-11-01", 0.05], ["2020-11-01", 0.065], ["2020-11-01", 0.065], ["2020-11-01", 0.065], ["2020-11-02", 0.065], ["2020-11-02", 0.065], ["2020-11-02", 0.09], ["2020-11-02", 0.09], ["2020-11-02", 0.1], ["2020-11-02", 0.1], ["2020-11-02", 0.1], ["2020-11-03", 0.1], ["2020-11-03", 0.1], ["2020-11-03", 0.1]] | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-08-16 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2270 |
<p>New EV tax credits are included with President Biden's Build Back Better Act, which stalled in the Senate in late 2021 (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/19/ev-tax-credits-in-bidens-build-back-better-act-will-help-sell-more-cars-than-new-chargers.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/ev-tax-credit-manchin-build-back-better/" target="_blank">cnet</a>). Legislation expanding existing tax credit programs would count. Tax credits for plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles (PHEVs) would also count (<a href="https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/phevtech.shtml" target="_blank">Department of Energy</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2022-08-16 | Will US federal legislation providing for new tax credits for the purchase of electric vehicles (EVs) become law before 19 August 2022? | 2022-02-17 | [["2022-02-18", 0.1], ["2022-02-18", 0.3], ["2022-02-18", 0.305], ["2022-02-18", 0.4], ["2022-02-18", 0.455], ["2022-02-18", 0.45], ["2022-02-18", 0.4], ["2022-02-18", 0.3], ["2022-02-18", 0.4], ["2022-02-19", 0.45], ["2022-02-19", 0.41], ["2022-02-19", 0.405], ["2022-02-19", 0.405], ["2022-02-19", 0.41], ["2022-02-20", 0.45], ["2022-02-20", 0.49], ["2022-02-20", 0.48], ["2022-02-20", 0.49], ["2022-02-20", 0.5], ["2022-02-21", 0.505], ["2022-02-21", 0.505], ["2022-02-21", 0.51], ["2022-02-21", 0.51], ["2022-02-21", 0.51], ["2022-02-21", 0.51], ["2022-02-21", 0.53], ["2022-02-22", 0.53], ["2022-02-22", 0.6], ["2022-02-22", 0.6], ["2022-02-22", 0.6], ["2022-02-22", 0.6], ["2022-02-23", 0.6], ["2022-02-23", 0.6], ["2022-02-23", 0.6], ["2022-02-23", 0.65], ["2022-02-23", 0.6], ["2022-02-24", 0.64], ["2022-02-24", 0.64], ["2022-02-24", 0.64], ["2022-02-24", 0.54], ["2022-02-25", 0.44], ["2022-02-25", 0.48], ["2022-02-25", 0.4], ["2022-02-25", 0.44], ["2022-02-25", 0.53], ["2022-02-25", 0.58], ["2022-02-26", 0.535], ["2022-02-26", 0.535], ["2022-02-26", 0.535], ["2022-02-27", 0.54], ["2022-02-28", 0.535], ["2022-02-28", 0.58], ["2022-03-01", 0.49], ["2022-03-01", 0.455], ["2022-03-01", 0.44], ["2022-03-02", 0.43], ["2022-03-03", 0.4], ["2022-03-03", 0.4], ["2022-03-04", 0.395], ["2022-03-04", 0.395], ["2022-03-06", 0.395], ["2022-03-07", 0.375], ["2022-03-07", 0.375], ["2022-03-08", 0.375], ["2022-03-09", 0.375], ["2022-03-10", 0.375], ["2022-03-11", 0.375], ["2022-03-11", 0.375], ["2022-03-12", 0.375], ["2022-03-12", 0.355], ["2022-03-14", 0.355], ["2022-03-14", 0.355], ["2022-03-15", 0.355], ["2022-03-15", 0.355], ["2022-03-16", 0.355], ["2022-03-17", 0.34], ["2022-03-17", 0.34], ["2022-03-18", 0.34], ["2022-03-18", 0.34], ["2022-03-18", 0.34], ["2022-03-20", 0.34], ["2022-03-21", 0.375], ["2022-03-22", 0.375], ["2022-03-23", 0.375], ["2022-03-23", 0.375], ["2022-03-26", 0.36], ["2022-03-28", 0.36], ["2022-03-28", 0.3], ["2022-03-28", 0.3], ["2022-03-29", 0.3], ["2022-03-29", 0.29], ["2022-03-29", 0.295], ["2022-03-30", 0.295], ["2022-03-31", 0.285], ["2022-03-31", 0.265], ["2022-03-31", 0.265], ["2022-04-01", 0.285], ["2022-04-11", 0.285], ["2022-04-12", 0.285], ["2022-04-13", 0.285], ["2022-04-13", 0.285], ["2022-04-14", 0.285], ["2022-04-16", 0.285], ["2022-04-17", 0.285], ["2022-04-18", 0.285], ["2022-04-19", 0.27], ["2022-04-20", 0.215], ["2022-04-21", 0.215], ["2022-04-22", 0.19], ["2022-04-22", 0.185], ["2022-04-23", 0.185], ["2022-04-23", 0.185], ["2022-04-25", 0.185], ["2022-04-29", 0.18], ["2022-05-01", 0.18], ["2022-05-01", 0.18], ["2022-05-02", 0.17], ["2022-05-03", 0.17], ["2022-05-03", 0.13], ["2022-05-04", 0.13], ["2022-05-04", 0.115], ["2022-05-05", 0.1], ["2022-05-05", 0.1], ["2022-05-05", 0.1], ["2022-05-06", 0.1], ["2022-05-09", 0.075], ["2022-05-09", 0.075], ["2022-05-10", 0.075], ["2022-05-13", 0.05], ["2022-05-13", 0.05], ["2022-05-13", 0.05], ["2022-05-14", 0.05], ["2022-05-14", 0.05], ["2022-05-15", 0.05], ["2022-05-16", 0.05], ["2022-05-16", 0.05], ["2022-05-17", 0.05], ["2022-05-20", 0.05], ["2022-05-21", 0.05], ["2022-05-21", 0.05], ["2022-05-28", 0.05], ["2022-06-01", 0.05], ["2022-06-01", 0.04], ["2022-06-04", 0.04], ["2022-06-08", 0.04], ["2022-06-08", 0.04], ["2022-06-09", 0.04], ["2022-06-11", 0.04], ["2022-06-17", 0.03], ["2022-06-18", 0.03], ["2022-06-19", 0.03], ["2022-06-22", 0.02], ["2022-06-26", 0.01], ["2022-06-28", 0.01], ["2022-06-28", 0.01], ["2022-07-04", 0.01], ["2022-07-10", 0.01], ["2022-07-13", 0.01], ["2022-07-14", 0.01], ["2022-07-15", 0.005], ["2022-07-15", 0.0], ["2022-07-15", 0.01], ["2022-07-16", 0.005], ["2022-07-18", 0.0], ["2022-07-20", 0.0], ["2022-07-21", 0.0], ["2022-07-22", 0.0], ["2022-07-24", 0.0], ["2022-07-24", 0.0], ["2022-07-26", 0.0], ["2022-07-27", 0.0], ["2022-07-28", 0.0], ["2022-07-28", 0.0], ["2022-07-28", 0.0], ["2022-07-28", 0.0], ["2022-07-28", 0.0], ["2022-07-28", 0.0], ["2022-07-28", 0.0], ["2022-07-29", 0.0], ["2022-07-29", 0.0], ["2022-07-29", 0.0], ["2022-07-29", 0.0], ["2022-07-30", 0.0], ["2022-07-31", 0.0], ["2022-07-31", 0.0], ["2022-08-01", 0.0], ["2022-08-01", 0.0], ["2022-08-01", 0.0], ["2022-08-02", 0.0], ["2022-08-02", 0.0], ["2022-08-03", 0.0], ["2022-08-04", 0.0], ["2022-08-05", 0.0], ["2022-08-05", 0.0], ["2022-08-05", 0.0], ["2022-08-05", 0.0], ["2022-08-05", 0.0], ["2022-08-05", 0.0], ["2022-08-06", 0.0], ["2022-08-07", 0.0], ["2022-08-07", 0.0], ["2022-08-07", 0.0], ["2022-08-07", 0.0], ["2022-08-08", 0.0], ["2022-08-08", 0.0], ["2022-08-08", 0.0], ["2022-08-08", 0.0], ["2022-08-08", 0.0], ["2022-08-08", 0.0], ["2022-08-08", 0.0], ["2022-08-08", 0.0], ["2022-08-09", 0.01], ["2022-08-09", 0.01], ["2022-08-09", 0.01], ["2022-08-09", 0.02], ["2022-08-09", 0.02], ["2022-08-10", 0.065], ["2022-08-10", 0.065], ["2022-08-11", 0.065], ["2022-08-12", 0.065], ["2022-08-12", 0.065], ["2022-08-12", 0.13], ["2022-08-12", 0.25], ["2022-08-12", 0.65], ["2022-08-12", 0.65], ["2022-08-12", 0.95], ["2022-08-12", 0.95], ["2022-08-13", 0.96], ["2022-08-13", 0.98], ["2022-08-13", 0.985], ["2022-08-13", 0.99], ["2022-08-13", 0.99], ["2022-08-14", 0.99], ["2022-08-14", 0.99], ["2022-08-15", 0.99], ["2022-08-16", 0.995], ["2022-08-16", 1.0], ["2022-08-16", 1.0], ["2022-08-16", 1.0]] | ["https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7813/Will-the-Senate-pass-a-bill-via-reconciliation-by-September-2", "https://rpt.greenbuildingregistry.com/hes/OR10201600", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-01/manchin-spending-deal-includes-billions-in-taxes-on-oil-sector", "https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/06/politics/senate-democrats-health-care-climate-bill-vote/index.html", "https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/biden-to-sign-inflation-reduction-act/", "https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/22122279-inflation-reduction-act-of-2022", "https://www.congress.gov/117/bills/hr5376/BILLS-117hr5376eas.pdf", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/16/watch-live-biden-to-sign-inflation-reduction-act-into-law-setting-15percent-minimum-corporate-tax-rate.html", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-sign-430-bln-climate-tax-bill-into-law-next-week-2022-08-12/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-04/sinema-s-demands-on-carried-interest-taxes-imperil-manchin-deal?srnd=premium", "https://www.amazon.com/Life-No-Fair-Stephen-Manes/dp/0525441921/ref=sr_1_1?crid=21UWX10EHT6ZL&keywords=life+is+no+fair&qid=1652373623&s=books&sprefix=life+is+no+fair%2Cstripbooks%2C258&sr=1-1", "https://rules.house.gov/bill/117/hr-5376-sa", "https://www.eenews.net/articles/its-manchins-climate-bill-now-heres-what-might-be-in-it/", "https://www.marketwatch.com/story/biden-will-sign-inflation-reduction-act-into-law-on-tuesday-white-house-says-2022-08-15", "https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3633", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-28/manchin-says-ludicrous-electric-vehicle-tax-credit-not-needed?srnd=premium", "https://electrek.co/2022/08/15/biden-will-sign-inflation-reduction-act-tomorrow-affecting-ev-credits/", "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/senate-deal-includes-ev-tax-234733473.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/14/us/politics/manchin-climate-taxes.html", "https://edition.cnn.com/2022/07/28/business/schumer-manchin-bill-ev-credits/index.html", "https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/5376"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2021-07-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2014 | <p>AgResearch is "responsible for delivering innovative science and research outcomes specifically for the agricultural sector," and its fiscal year is 1 July to 30 June (<a href="https://www.agresearch.co.nz/" target="_blank">AgResearch</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome will be determined using data as provided in AgResearch's 2021 Annual Report, expected in October 2021 (<a href="https://www.agresearch.co.nz/about/our-organisation/publications/annual-report/" target="_blank">AgResearch - Annual Reports</a>). For FY 2019/20, AgResearch reported a net annual financial surplus of NZ$3,780 before tax, in thousands of NZ dollars (<a href="https://www.agresearch.co.nz/assets/Uploads/AgResearch-Annual-Report-2020.pdf" target="_blank">AgResearch - 2020 Annual Report</a>, see "Surplus/(deficit) before tax" on page 103).<p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p></p> | 2021-10-27 | Will New Zealand's AgResearch report having a net annual financial surplus (pretax) in its 2020/21 fiscal year? | 2021-05-21 | [["2021-05-21", 1.0], ["2021-05-21", 0.975], ["2021-05-21", 1.0], ["2021-05-21", 0.975], ["2021-05-21", 0.95], ["2021-05-22", 0.975], ["2021-05-23", 1.0], ["2021-05-23", 0.975], ["2021-05-23", 0.95], ["2021-05-23", 0.935], ["2021-05-23", 0.92], ["2021-05-24", 0.91], ["2021-05-24", 0.92], ["2021-05-24", 0.91], ["2021-05-24", 0.91], ["2021-05-24", 0.9], ["2021-05-24", 0.9], ["2021-05-24", 0.9], ["2021-05-25", 0.875], ["2021-05-25", 0.825], ["2021-05-25", 0.85], ["2021-05-25", 0.85], ["2021-05-25", 0.85], ["2021-05-25", 0.85], ["2021-05-25", 0.85], ["2021-05-25", 0.825], ["2021-05-26", 0.8], ["2021-05-26", 0.8], ["2021-05-26", 0.8], ["2021-05-27", 0.8], ["2021-05-29", 0.8], ["2021-05-29", 0.8], ["2021-05-30", 0.8], ["2021-05-31", 0.8], ["2021-06-02", 0.75], ["2021-06-02", 0.775], ["2021-06-02", 0.8], ["2021-06-02", 0.8], ["2021-06-02", 0.8], ["2021-06-02", 0.8], ["2021-06-03", 0.8], ["2021-06-04", 0.8], ["2021-06-04", 0.8], ["2021-06-07", 0.8], ["2021-06-08", 0.8], ["2021-06-08", 0.8], ["2021-06-12", 0.8], ["2021-06-12", 0.8], ["2021-06-12", 0.8], ["2021-06-14", 0.8], ["2021-06-14", 0.8], ["2021-06-14", 0.8], ["2021-06-15", 0.8], ["2021-06-16", 0.8], ["2021-06-17", 0.83], ["2021-06-18", 0.83], ["2021-06-18", 0.83], ["2021-06-18", 0.85], ["2021-06-20", 0.85], ["2021-06-21", 0.85], ["2021-06-22", 0.85], ["2021-06-23", 0.85], ["2021-06-23", 0.85], ["2021-06-23", 0.85], ["2021-06-27", 0.85], ["2021-06-27", 0.85], ["2021-06-27", 0.85], ["2021-06-28", 0.85], ["2021-06-28", 0.85], ["2021-06-30", 0.85], ["2021-07-01", 0.85]] | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
False | 2024-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2626 | <p>Dubai is expecting a surge in Chinese tourists once China eases its COVID-19 policy restrictions (<a href="https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/2022/08/03/uae-ready-for-potential-swift-and-robust-influx-of-chinese-tourists-by-2023/" target="_blank">The National</a>). The outcome will be determined using data from the Dubai Department of Economy and Tourism (<a href="https://www.dubaitourism.gov.ae/" target="_blank">Dubai Tourism</a>). In 2019, China accounted for 989,000 visitors (<a href="https://dubaitourism.getbynder.com/m/3e56c8625ed93ce0/original/DTCM-ANNUAL-REPORT-2019-EN.pdf" target="_blank">Dubai Tourism - 2019 Annual Report</a>). For January through September 2022, Dubai has received 113,000 visitors from China versus 729,000 over the same period in 2019 (<a href="https://www.dubaitourism.gov.ae/en/research-and-insights/tourism-performance-report-september-2022" target="_blank">Dubai Tourism - Tourism Performance Report September 2022</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | Will more international overnight visitors from China visit Dubai in 2023 than did in 2019, according to the Dubai Department of Economy and Tourism? | 2022-11-14 | [["2022-11-15", 0.45], ["2022-11-15", 0.3], ["2022-11-15", 0.2667], ["2022-11-15", 0.3], ["2022-11-15", 0.3], ["2022-11-15", 0.434], ["2022-11-15", 0.432], ["2022-11-15", 0.4467], ["2022-11-15", 0.43], ["2022-11-15", 0.4238], ["2022-11-15", 0.4288], ["2022-11-15", 0.41], ["2022-11-15", 0.469], ["2022-11-15", 0.4536], ["2022-11-15", 0.4492], ["2022-11-16", 0.4377], ["2022-11-16", 0.4486], ["2022-11-16", 0.4464], ["2022-11-16", 0.4213], ["2022-11-16", 0.4138], ["2022-11-16", 0.4125], ["2022-11-16", 0.4113], ["2022-11-16", 0.4253], ["2022-11-16", 0.4044], ["2022-11-16", 0.42], ["2022-11-16", 0.4305], ["2022-11-16", 0.431], ["2022-11-16", 0.4315], ["2022-11-16", 0.4586], ["2022-11-17", 0.4595], ["2022-11-17", 0.4568], ["2022-11-17", 0.4609], ["2022-11-18", 0.5036], ["2022-11-18", 0.4757], ["2022-11-18", 0.4893], ["2022-11-18", 0.5013], ["2022-11-18", 0.4888], ["2022-11-18", 0.4718], ["2022-11-18", 0.47], ["2022-11-19", 0.4806], ["2022-11-19", 0.4594], ["2022-11-19", 0.5071], ["2022-11-19", 0.5043], ["2022-11-19", 0.524], ["2022-11-19", 0.524], ["2022-11-19", 0.5531], ["2022-11-20", 0.5438], ["2022-11-20", 0.55], ["2022-11-20", 0.5563], ["2022-11-21", 0.5369], ["2022-11-21", 0.4744], ["2022-11-22", 0.4338], ["2022-11-22", 0.4356], ["2022-11-23", 0.41], ["2022-11-23", 0.4335], ["2022-11-23", 0.4288], ["2022-11-24", 0.4271], ["2022-11-24", 0.4433], ["2022-11-25", 0.4244], ["2022-11-25", 0.4122], ["2022-11-25", 0.4128], ["2022-11-26", 0.4233], ["2022-11-26", 0.4233], ["2022-11-26", 0.4122], ["2022-11-27", 0.4432], ["2022-11-28", 0.4432], ["2022-11-28", 0.4011], ["2022-11-28", 0.3747], ["2022-11-28", 0.3721], ["2022-11-30", 0.3605], ["2022-11-30", 0.3568], ["2022-12-02", 0.3542], ["2022-12-03", 0.349], ["2022-12-04", 0.3145], ["2022-12-06", 0.307], ["2022-12-07", 0.3215], ["2022-12-09", 0.3275], ["2022-12-09", 0.33], ["2022-12-09", 0.3235], ["2022-12-11", 0.323], ["2022-12-11", 0.373], ["2022-12-13", 0.3552], ["2022-12-16", 0.361], ["2022-12-17", 0.3481], ["2022-12-23", 0.3557], ["2022-12-23", 0.351], ["2022-12-25", 0.351], ["2022-12-27", 0.351], ["2022-12-27", 0.3581], ["2022-12-28", 0.3509], ["2022-12-31", 0.3536], ["2023-01-01", 0.3468], ["2023-01-09", 0.3241], ["2023-01-12", 0.3227], ["2023-01-12", 0.3223], ["2023-01-13", 0.3227], ["2023-01-13", 0.3273], ["2023-01-13", 0.3264], ["2023-01-17", 0.3241], ["2023-01-25", 0.3127], ["2023-01-27", 0.2991], ["2023-01-28", 0.2974], ["2023-01-29", 0.2952], ["2023-02-11", 0.2935], ["2023-02-18", 0.2935], ["2023-02-21", 0.2978], ["2023-02-22", 0.2957], ["2023-02-28", 0.2952], ["2023-03-02", 0.2939], ["2023-03-02", 0.2917], ["2023-03-11", 0.28], ["2023-03-15", 0.2783], ["2023-03-15", 0.2778], ["2023-03-23", 0.2539], ["2023-03-31", 0.2539], ["2023-04-05", 0.2757], ["2023-04-13", 0.2743], ["2023-04-14", 0.2743], ["2023-04-14", 0.2635], ["2023-04-29", 0.2548], ["2023-05-01", 0.2539], ["2023-05-03", 0.2474], ["2023-05-03", 0.2452], ["2023-05-04", 0.26], ["2023-05-05", 0.2596], ["2023-05-08", 0.2529], ["2023-05-08", 0.2525], ["2023-05-08", 0.25], ["2023-05-10", 0.2688], ["2023-05-12", 0.3063], ["2023-05-26", 0.3104], ["2023-05-26", 0.3146], ["2023-05-31", 0.3154], ["2023-06-03", 0.3158], ["2023-07-03", 0.3188], ["2023-07-05", 0.3146], ["2023-07-09", 0.3125], ["2023-07-16", 0.3083], ["2023-07-24", 0.3052], ["2023-07-30", 0.3048], ["2023-08-13", 0.3016], ["2023-08-18", 0.2816], ["2023-08-21", 0.2536], ["2023-08-24", 0.2548], ["2023-08-25", 0.2544], ["2023-09-03", 0.2446], ["2023-09-06", 0.2438], ["2023-09-06", 0.2419], ["2023-09-07", 0.2438], ["2023-09-15", 0.2419], ["2023-09-18", 0.2392], ["2023-09-18", 0.2396], ["2023-09-20", 0.2631], ["2023-10-16", 0.2608], ["2023-10-16", 0.2608], ["2023-10-16", 0.2596], ["2023-10-17", 0.2585], ["2023-10-21", 0.2565], ["2023-11-02", 0.2504], ["2023-11-07", 0.2533], ["2023-11-13", 0.2522], ["2023-11-18", 0.2485], ["2023-11-20", 0.2563], ["2023-12-02", 0.2563], ["2023-12-05", 0.2563], ["2023-12-05", 0.2563], ["2023-12-13", 0.2544], ["2023-12-13", 0.223], ["2023-12-14", 0.2152], ["2023-12-17", 0.2152], ["2023-12-25", 0.2152], ["2023-12-26", 0.2122], ["2023-12-30", 0.2085], ["2023-12-31", 0.2074], ["2024-01-01", 0.2074]] | ["https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/heritage/2023/02/03/first-chinese-tour-groups-to-arrive-in-dubai-after-three-years-of-covid-curbs/", "https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3199705/chinas-changes-covid-19-controls-get-mixed-reaction-new-cases-stoke-fears", "https://www.thenationalnews.com/gulf-news/2023/01/13/gulf-to-see-critical-economic-boost-as-china-reopens/", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/14/chinese-authorities-unveil-sweeping-measures-to-rescue-property-sector", "https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/2022/08/03/uae-ready-for-potential-swift-and-robust-influx-of-chinese-tourists-by-2023/?outputType=amp", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-air-travel-surges-after-easing-of-covid-restrictions-11671452732", "https://www.oag.com/coronavirus-airline-schedules-data", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/23/china-may-have-passed-the-point-of-no-return-as-covid-infections-soar.html", "https://www.dubaitourism.gov.ae/en/research-and-insights/tourism-performance-report-jan-2023", "https://www.unwto.org/tourism-data/international-tourism-and-covid-19", "https://www.ceicdata.com/en/china/air-passenger-traffic/air-passenger-traffic-ytd-international", "https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/leisureandtourism/bulletins/overseastravelandtourism/june2022provisionalresults", "https://whatson.ae/2022/08/13-huge-world-sporting-events-coming-to-abu-dhabi-in-the-next-year/", "https://twitter.com/next_china/status/1597784143340998656?t=Q3SG8B-bOo_G2MZ1VYHdtQ&s=19", "https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/11/business/china-covid-flight-bans-quarantine-updates-intl-hnk", "https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3143225/coronavirus-china-pauses-passport-renewals-hope-curbed", "https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3198874/rich-chinese-eye-life-abroad-amid-questions-about-policy-direction-under-xi-jinping", "https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/curbs-08062021095546.html", "https://www.dubaitourism.gov.ae/en/research-and-insights/tourism-performance-report-august-2023", "https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/2022/08/03/uae-ready-for-potential-swift-and-robust-influx-of-chinese-tourists-by-2023/", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/16/business/air-travel-pre-covid-levels-june-2023-intl-hnk/index.html", "https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/travel-logistics-and-infrastructure/our-insights/outlook-for-china-tourism-in-2022-trends-to-watch-in-uncertain-times", "https://www.ceicdata.com/en/china/air-passenger-traffic/air-passenger-traffic-yoy-international", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-27/morgan-stanley-joins-chorus-expecting-china-to-open-spring-2023", "https://www.dubaitourism.gov.ae/en/research-and-insights/tourism-performance-report-june-2023"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | 2021-02-13 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1919 |
<p>After the resignation of Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, how the next Italian government will be formed -- and how Italy will continue to weather the COVID-19 crisis -- remains to be seen (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/lots-of-eu-cash-for-italy-but-what-about-structural-reform" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55802611" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.thelocal.it/20210105/early-elections-or-waste-of-time-heres-what-italys-latest-political-crisis-means" target="_blank">thelocal.it</a>). Neither a reappointment of Conte nor the appointment of a caretaker prime minister would count.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.<br></p><p><span style="font-size:10px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank"><span style="font-size:10px;">how we resolve questions </span></a><span style="font-size:10px;">and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank"><span style="font-size:10px;">how scores are calculated</span></a><span style="font-size:10px;">.</span></p><p>
</p>
| 2021-02-13 | Will there be a new prime minister of Italy before 1 September 2021? | 2021-01-29 | [["2021-01-29", 0.15], ["2021-01-29", 0.575], ["2021-01-29", 0.3], ["2021-01-29", 0.4], ["2021-01-29", 0.3], ["2021-01-29", 0.3], ["2021-01-29", 0.3], ["2021-01-29", 0.3], ["2021-01-29", 0.3], ["2021-01-30", 0.23], ["2021-01-30", 0.16], ["2021-01-30", 0.155], ["2021-01-30", 0.16], ["2021-01-30", 0.18], ["2021-01-30", 0.205], ["2021-01-30", 0.16], ["2021-01-30", 0.16], ["2021-01-30", 0.205], ["2021-01-30", 0.25], ["2021-01-30", 0.225], ["2021-01-30", 0.205], ["2021-01-30", 0.16], ["2021-01-30", 0.155], ["2021-01-30", 0.15], ["2021-01-31", 0.15], ["2021-01-31", 0.15], ["2021-01-31", 0.15], ["2021-01-31", 0.15], ["2021-01-31", 0.155], ["2021-01-31", 0.16], ["2021-01-31", 0.18], ["2021-02-01", 0.2], ["2021-02-01", 0.2], ["2021-02-01", 0.2], ["2021-02-01", 0.2], ["2021-02-01", 0.2], ["2021-02-01", 0.2], ["2021-02-01", 0.21], ["2021-02-01", 0.23], ["2021-02-01", 0.21], ["2021-02-01", 0.23], 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["2021-02-04", 0.725], ["2021-02-04", 0.75], ["2021-02-04", 0.75], ["2021-02-04", 0.775], ["2021-02-04", 0.775], ["2021-02-04", 0.775], ["2021-02-04", 0.825], ["2021-02-04", 0.85], ["2021-02-04", 0.85], ["2021-02-04", 0.85], ["2021-02-04", 0.85], ["2021-02-04", 0.875], ["2021-02-04", 0.9], ["2021-02-04", 0.9], ["2021-02-04", 0.9], ["2021-02-04", 0.9], ["2021-02-04", 0.9], ["2021-02-04", 0.95], ["2021-02-04", 0.95], ["2021-02-04", 0.95], ["2021-02-05", 0.95], ["2021-02-05", 0.95], ["2021-02-05", 0.95], ["2021-02-05", 0.95], ["2021-02-05", 0.95], ["2021-02-05", 0.95], ["2021-02-05", 0.95], ["2021-02-05", 0.95], ["2021-02-05", 0.95], ["2021-02-05", 0.95], ["2021-02-05", 0.95], ["2021-02-05", 0.96], ["2021-02-06", 0.96], ["2021-02-06", 0.95], ["2021-02-06", 0.955], ["2021-02-06", 0.95], ["2021-02-06", 0.96], ["2021-02-07", 0.95], ["2021-02-07", 0.96], ["2021-02-07", 0.96], ["2021-02-07", 0.955], ["2021-02-07", 0.955], ["2021-02-07", 0.955], ["2021-02-07", 0.96], ["2021-02-07", 0.96], ["2021-02-07", 0.96], ["2021-02-07", 0.96], ["2021-02-07", 0.96], ["2021-02-08", 0.965], ["2021-02-08", 0.975], ["2021-02-08", 0.985], ["2021-02-08", 0.99], ["2021-02-08", 0.99], ["2021-02-08", 0.99], ["2021-02-08", 0.99], ["2021-02-08", 0.99], ["2021-02-08", 0.99], ["2021-02-09", 0.99], ["2021-02-09", 0.99], ["2021-02-09", 0.99], ["2021-02-09", 0.99], ["2021-02-09", 0.99], ["2021-02-09", 0.99], ["2021-02-10", 0.99], ["2021-02-10", 0.99], ["2021-02-10", 0.99], ["2021-02-10", 0.99], ["2021-02-10", 0.99], ["2021-02-10", 0.99], ["2021-02-11", 0.99], ["2021-02-11", 0.99], ["2021-02-12", 0.99], ["2021-02-12", 0.99], ["2021-02-12", 0.99], ["2021-02-12", 0.99], ["2021-02-13", 0.99], ["2021-02-13", 0.99], ["2021-02-13", 0.99], ["2021-02-13", 0.99], ["2021-02-13", 0.995], ["2021-02-13", 0.995]] | ["https://reut.rs/3p8U8nR", "https://reut.rs/3b4u4VX", "https://nyti.ms/3p8mkXQ", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-politics-draghi/draghi-forms-new-italian-government-names-politicians-technocrats-as-ministers-idUSKBN2AC2AG?il=0", "https://bloom.bg/3q0atMJ", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Italy", "https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/recovery-plan-europe_en", "https://bit.ly/3p5bIce", "https://reut.rs/3jsWyMH", "https://bit.ly/3arNHXG", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1230432", "https://www.ft.com/content/7c2007d9-6ce9-4895-ac5c-cd17e3bf69b2", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1229005", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/02/03/mario-draghi-italy-prime-minister/", "https://www.rte.ie/news/europe/2021/0203/1194864-italy-government/", "https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=it&u=https://www.repubblica.it/politica/2021/02/09/news/governo-draghi-ultime-notizie-di-oggi-286699764/&prev=search&pto=aue", "https://politi.co/3a9Vomp", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-government/italy-set-for-early-election-berlusconi-ahead-idUSL0554842920080205", "https://www.euronews.com/2021/02/06/italy-s-draghi-wins-support-of-two-parties-for-new-government-as-salvini-comes-on-board", "https://www.france24.com/en/20180527-italys-pm-designate-gives-efforts-form-government", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-02/italy-s-search-for-a-new-government-stalls-as-latest-talks-fail", "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/03/draghi-former-ecb-president-could-be-italy-new-prime-minister.html", "https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/italys-draghi-wins-support-rival-parties-govt-75726674", "https://bit.ly/3rwwoLM", "https://bit.ly/3acQlRV"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2021-11-07 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1903 |
<p>In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People's Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC, including Nicaragua (<a href="https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&sms=A76B7230ADF29736" target="_blank">Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs</a>, <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5" target="_blank">Springer Link</a>, <a href="https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865" target="_blank">Taipei Times</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2" target="_blank">AP</a>). An announcement by Nicaragua would count (e.g., <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p></p><p><b>Versión en Español</b>:
</p><p><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:Helvetica;">
</span><span style="font-family:Helvetica;"><b>Pregunta</b>: ¿Nicaragua reconocerá diplomáticamente a la República Popular China antes del 7 de noviembre de 2021?</span></p><p><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:Helvetica;">
</span><span style="font-family:Helvetica;"><b>Información adicional</b>: En las últimas décadas, muchos países han dejado de reconocer a la República de China, comúnmente conocida como Taiwán, en favor del reconocimiento de la República Popular de China. Un puñado de países continúan reconociendo a la República de China, incluyendo Nicaragua (<a href="https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&sms=A76B7230ADF29736" target="_blank">Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores de Taiwán</a>, <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5" target="_blank">Springer Link</a>, </span><a href="https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865" target="_blank">T</a><span style="font-family:Helvetica;"><a href="https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865" target="_blank">aipei Times</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2" target="_blank">AP</a>). Un anuncio de Nicaragua contaría a efectos de la resolución de esta pregunta (por ejemplo, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés.</span></p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;"><span style="font-size:10px;font-family:Helvetica;">Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes (<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQs</a>) o envíenos un <a href="http://clarifications@goodjudgment.com" target="_blank">correo electrónico</a>. Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">clique aquí</a>.</span></span></p><p></p>
| 2021-11-08 | Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021? | 2021-01-15 | [["2021-01-15", 0.01], ["2021-01-15", 0.045], ["2021-01-15", 0.01], ["2021-01-15", 0.045], ["2021-01-16", 0.05], ["2021-01-16", 0.065], ["2021-01-16", 0.05], ["2021-01-16", 0.065], ["2021-01-16", 0.08], ["2021-01-16", 0.09], ["2021-01-16", 0.09], ["2021-01-16", 0.09], ["2021-01-17", 0.09], ["2021-01-17", 0.085], ["2021-01-17", 0.09], ["2021-01-17", 0.085], ["2021-01-17", 0.08], ["2021-01-17", 0.085], ["2021-01-18", 0.08], ["2021-01-18", 0.085], ["2021-01-18", 0.085], ["2021-01-18", 0.08], ["2021-01-18", 0.065], ["2021-01-18", 0.08], ["2021-01-18", 0.095], ["2021-01-18", 0.105], ["2021-01-18", 0.11], ["2021-01-19", 0.11], ["2021-01-19", 0.1], ["2021-01-20", 0.1], ["2021-01-20", 0.11], ["2021-01-20", 0.13], ["2021-01-21", 0.2], ["2021-01-22", 0.2], ["2021-01-22", 0.2], ["2021-01-22", 0.2], ["2021-01-22", 0.2], ["2021-01-22", 0.2], ["2021-01-23", 0.2], 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"https://www.taiwanembassy.org/ni_es/post/16995.html", "https://taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2020/05/22/2003736852", "https://www.el19digital.com/articulos/ver/titulo:112122-companera-rosario-murillo-en-multinoticias-22-01-21", "https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.CDRT.IN?end=2018&locations=NI&start=1960&view=chart", "https://theglobalamericans.org/2021/01/four-years-later-biden-faces-a-different-latin-america/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Nicaraguan_general_election", "https://apnews.com/article/elections-blockades-central-america-daniel-ortega-nicaragua-14d04033e443f6da9bf3d11aec0dae47", "https://www.strifeblog.org/2020/11/27/daniel-ortega-weapons-of-covid-19-destruction/", "https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-11-15/biden-administration-latin-america-foreign-policy", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/16/daniel-ortega-reappears-nicaragua-coronavirus-sign-from-god", "https://thediplomat.com/2019/08/nicaraguas-chinese-financed-canal-project-still-in-limbo/", "https://www.el19digital.com/articulos/ver/titulo:111872-mas-de-115-millones-de-dolares-adicionales-para-la-produccion-en-nicaragua", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nicaragua-taiwan/taiwan-warships-drop-anchor-in-nicaragua-amid-sinking-ties-with-china-idUSKBN1HH179", "https://www.straitstimes.com/world/americas/el-salvador-ratifies-ties-with-china-after-taiwan-switch", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1831", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1891", "https://www.lavozdelsandinismo.com/nicaragua/2020-10-12/sistema-de-salud-de-nicaragua-recibe-nueva-donacion-de-taiwan/", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-43958849", "https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/world/china-sharpens-language-warns-taiwan-that-independence-means-war-204579", "https://www.el19digital.com/articulos/ver/titulo:111302-ejercito-de-nicaragua-recibe-donacion-de-taiwan", "https://apnews.com/article/c9f7cce0c4bb43e5a967c1cdee1db231", "https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Nicaraguan_general_election", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-40256499"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2005 |
<p>Baseball club owners and the players union have begun negotiations for a new CBA (<a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/31298306/mlb-union-meet-1st-cba-talks-sources-say" target="_blank">ESPN</a>, <a href="https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/rob-manfred-optimistic-mlb-mlbpa-can-avoid-work-stoppage-after-2021-season/" target="_blank">CBS Sports</a>). The current CBA is due to expire on 1 December 2021 (<a href="https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2021/04/21/players-and-mlb-finally-begin-cba-negotiations/" target="_blank">Bleacher Nation</a>, <a href="https://d39ba378-ae47-4003-86d3-147e4fa6e51b.filesusr.com/ugd/b0a4c2_95883690627349e0a5203f61b93715b5.pdf" target="_blank">MLBPA</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-01-03 | Will a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) between Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association be ratified before 1 January 2022? | 2021-05-07 | [["2021-05-07", 0.95], ["2021-05-08", 0.825], ["2021-05-08", 0.92], ["2021-05-08", 0.935], ["2021-05-09", 0.95], ["2021-05-09", 0.98], ["2021-05-10", 0.98], ["2021-05-10", 0.99], ["2021-05-10", 0.99], ["2021-05-10", 0.995], ["2021-05-10", 0.995], ["2021-05-12", 0.99], ["2021-05-12", 0.99], ["2021-05-12", 0.995], ["2021-05-13", 0.995], ["2021-05-13", 1.0], ["2021-05-13", 1.0], ["2021-05-16", 0.995], ["2021-05-16", 0.995], ["2021-05-18", 0.99], ["2021-05-18", 0.99], ["2021-05-19", 0.98], ["2021-05-20", 0.98], ["2021-05-27", 0.99], ["2021-05-27", 0.99], ["2021-06-02", 0.99], ["2021-06-02", 0.98], ["2021-06-08", 0.98], ["2021-06-09", 0.895], ["2021-06-09", 0.785], ["2021-06-09", 0.785], ["2021-06-10", 0.785], ["2021-06-12", 0.82], ["2021-06-12", 0.815], ["2021-06-12", 0.815], ["2021-06-12", 0.865], ["2021-06-13", 0.865], ["2021-06-13", 0.895], ["2021-06-15", 0.835], ["2021-06-17", 0.835], ["2021-06-17", 0.845], ["2021-06-19", 0.845], ["2021-06-19", 0.845], ["2021-06-20", 0.895], ["2021-06-23", 0.895], ["2021-06-24", 0.895], ["2021-06-25", 0.895], ["2021-06-30", 0.91], ["2021-07-01", 0.91], ["2021-07-02", 0.895], ["2021-07-05", 0.88], ["2021-07-06", 0.88], ["2021-07-07", 0.87], ["2021-07-07", 0.89], ["2021-07-08", 0.87], ["2021-07-08", 0.87], ["2021-07-08", 0.87], ["2021-07-09", 0.87], ["2021-07-11", 0.87], ["2021-07-12", 0.87], ["2021-07-13", 0.82], ["2021-07-14", 0.75], ["2021-07-14", 0.7], ["2021-07-14", 0.7], ["2021-07-14", 0.7], ["2021-07-15", 0.7], ["2021-07-15", 0.7], ["2021-07-16", 0.7], ["2021-07-16", 0.7], ["2021-07-18", 0.7], ["2021-07-20", 0.7], ["2021-07-23", 0.7], ["2021-07-25", 0.6], ["2021-07-26", 0.6], ["2021-07-27", 0.6], ["2021-07-27", 0.57], ["2021-07-28", 0.55], ["2021-07-28", 0.55], ["2021-07-28", 0.55], ["2021-07-29", 0.35], ["2021-07-30", 0.35], ["2021-07-30", 0.35], ["2021-07-31", 0.35], ["2021-07-31", 0.285], ["2021-07-31", 0.285], ["2021-07-31", 0.285], ["2021-07-31", 0.235], ["2021-08-01", 0.2], ["2021-08-02", 0.2], ["2021-08-02", 0.1], ["2021-08-02", 0.1], ["2021-08-03", 0.1], ["2021-08-04", 0.1], ["2021-08-04", 0.1], ["2021-08-05", 0.235], ["2021-08-06", 0.235], ["2021-08-10", 0.37], ["2021-08-10", 0.37], ["2021-08-10", 0.4], ["2021-08-10", 0.4], ["2021-08-10", 0.4], ["2021-08-10", 0.5], ["2021-08-11", 0.7], ["2021-08-11", 0.7], ["2021-08-12", 0.7], ["2021-08-13", 0.7], ["2021-08-13", 0.7], ["2021-08-14", 0.74], ["2021-08-14", 0.76], ["2021-08-15", 0.79], ["2021-08-16", 0.8], ["2021-08-17", 0.81], ["2021-08-17", 0.81], ["2021-08-17", 0.82], ["2021-08-17", 0.81], ["2021-08-17", 0.81], ["2021-08-17", 0.82], ["2021-08-19", 0.82], ["2021-08-31", 0.82], ["2021-09-02", 0.82], ["2021-09-02", 0.83], ["2021-09-11", 0.83], ["2021-09-15", 0.845], ["2021-09-16", 0.85], ["2021-09-16", 0.85], ["2021-09-20", 0.85], ["2021-09-23", 0.85], ["2021-09-24", 0.85], ["2021-09-26", 0.85], ["2021-09-27", 0.85], ["2021-09-28", 0.85], ["2021-09-29", 0.85], ["2021-09-30", 0.85], ["2021-10-03", 0.85], ["2021-10-07", 0.85], ["2021-10-10", 0.855], ["2021-10-10", 0.865], ["2021-10-13", 0.865], ["2021-10-15", 0.85], ["2021-10-15", 0.85], ["2021-10-18", 0.835], ["2021-10-18", 0.835], ["2021-10-19", 0.835], ["2021-10-19", 0.81], ["2021-10-20", 0.81], ["2021-10-21", 0.81], ["2021-10-21", 0.81], ["2021-10-27", 0.775], ["2021-10-28", 0.735], ["2021-10-28", 0.735], ["2021-10-31", 0.735], ["2021-11-01", 0.735], ["2021-11-02", 0.735], ["2021-11-04", 0.715], ["2021-11-05", 0.715], ["2021-11-06", 0.715], ["2021-11-07", 0.715], ["2021-11-07", 0.72], ["2021-11-09", 0.715], ["2021-11-09", 0.71], ["2021-11-10", 0.7], ["2021-11-10", 0.7], ["2021-11-11", 0.67], ["2021-11-11", 0.67], ["2021-11-11", 0.67], ["2021-11-12", 0.67], ["2021-11-12", 0.67], ["2021-11-12", 0.67], ["2021-11-14", 0.55], ["2021-11-15", 0.51], ["2021-11-17", 0.51], ["2021-11-17", 0.51], ["2021-11-18", 0.51], ["2021-11-18", 0.51], ["2021-11-19", 0.51], ["2021-11-20", 0.51], ["2021-11-21", 0.51], ["2021-11-22", 0.51], ["2021-11-23", 0.51], ["2021-11-23", 0.5], ["2021-11-24", 0.495], ["2021-11-26", 0.495], ["2021-11-27", 0.495], ["2021-11-28", 0.48], ["2021-11-29", 0.46], ["2021-11-29", 0.46], ["2021-11-29", 0.46], ["2021-11-30", 0.425], ["2021-12-01", 0.375], ["2021-12-01", 0.365], ["2021-12-01", 0.365], ["2021-12-01", 0.355], ["2021-12-01", 0.355], ["2021-12-01", 0.355], ["2021-12-02", 0.3], ["2021-12-02", 0.3], ["2021-12-02", 0.26], ["2021-12-02", 0.26], ["2021-12-02", 0.26], ["2021-12-02", 0.225], ["2021-12-03", 0.225], ["2021-12-03", 0.175], ["2021-12-03", 0.175], ["2021-12-03", 0.165], ["2021-12-05", 0.14], ["2021-12-05", 0.095], ["2021-12-05", 0.085], ["2021-12-06", 0.09], ["2021-12-06", 0.08], ["2021-12-08", 0.04], ["2021-12-08", 0.04], ["2021-12-08", 0.035], ["2021-12-09", 0.035], ["2021-12-09", 0.03], ["2021-12-09", 0.02], ["2021-12-10", 0.02], ["2021-12-10", 0.02], ["2021-12-12", 0.02], ["2021-12-12", 0.02], ["2021-12-13", 0.02], ["2021-12-13", 0.02], ["2021-12-13", 0.02], ["2021-12-15", 0.02], ["2021-12-17", 0.02], ["2021-12-18", 0.0], ["2021-12-19", 0.0], ["2021-12-20", 0.0], ["2021-12-21", 0.0], ["2021-12-21", 0.0], ["2021-12-21", 0.0], ["2021-12-23", 0.0], ["2021-12-23", 0.0], ["2021-12-25", 0.0], ["2021-12-26", 0.0], ["2021-12-26", 0.0], ["2021-12-27", 0.0], ["2021-12-30", 0.0], ["2021-12-30", 0.0], ["2022-01-01", 0.0], ["2022-01-01", 0.0], ["2022-01-01", 0.0]] | ["https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mlbpa-cba-negotiations", "https://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/576456-more-than-100k-workers-threaten-strikes-as-unions-flex-muscles", "https://apnews.com/article/mlb-sports-business-new-york-baseball-87343ebd132953eff64b8e1d6befe8a9", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/christianred/2021/05/29/baseball-unions-grievance-could-be-a-hail-mary-strategy-ahead-of-labor-negotiations/?sh=5a1483fe7b25", "https://www.sportico.com/leagues/baseball/2021/mlb-collective-bargaining-1234639579/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2021/03/25/tony-clark-mlbpa-labor-negotiations-start/", "https://www.mlb.com/news/featured/a-letter-to-baseball-fans", "https://www.mlb.com/press-release/press-release-2022-spring-training-schedule-released", "https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10010018-mlb-rumors-14-team-expanded-playoff-has-been-discussed-amid-expiring-cba", "https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2021/6/16/22536140/foreign-substances-crackdown-memo-pitchers", "https://apnews.com/article/mlb-baseball-coronavirus-pandemic-strikes-nolan-arenado-c2e987ff72de5ed405905ecf4b780d3d", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/christianred/2021/12/26/as-2021-draws-to-a-close-no-signs-that-baseball-lockout-will-end-before-new-year/?sh=5138976d14d9", "https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/cba-history/", "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-field-of-dreams-game-ranking-all-eight-home-runs-from-thrilling-yankees-white-sox-showdown/", "https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-mlb-sports-health-texas-cb73d762f427174cb2698fa98b39b63c", "https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/10017775-mlb-rumors-insider-says-cba-talks-as-bad-as-ever-predicts-25-months-of-pain.amp.html", "https://www.post-gazette.com/sports/pirates/2021/07/13/Pirates-Rob-Manfred-Bob-Nutting-competitive-balance-advocate-owner-Tony-Clark-MLBPA/stories/202107130180?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1626223799-1", "https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2021/03/30/mlbs-new-cba-negotiations-havent-started-yet-but-they-should-begin-soon/", "https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-almost-certain-to-have-first-work-stoppage-in-26-years-per-report/", "https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/32661677/commissioner-rob-manfred-says-lockout-move-mlb-labor-talks-forward"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-08-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2648 |
<p>India and Taiwan began negotiations for a free trade agreement in 2021 (<a href="https://telecom.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india-taiwan-holding-talks-on-free-trade-agreement-looking-at-setting-up-semiconductor-hub/88374616" target="_blank">Economic Times</a>, <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2022/11/could-semiconductors-tip-the-india-taiwan-scale/" target="_blank">Diplomat</a>, <a href="https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-taiwan-should-consider-finalising-fta-as-soon-as-possible-taiwan-government-representative/article65987932.ece" target="_blank">The Hindu</a>). The signing of an FTA or the announcement of an agreement in principle (see EU-Mercosur announcement) would count, and ratification would be immaterial (e.g., <a href="https://www.mfat.govt.nz/en/trade/free-trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements-concluded-but-not-in-force/regional-comprehensive-economic-partnership-rcep/rcep-overview" target="_blank">NZ Ministry of Foreign Affairs & Trade</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48807161" target="_blank">BBC - EU-Mercosur announcement</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-08-01 | Before 1 August 2023, will India and Taiwan either sign or announce the completion of negotiations on a free trade agreement (FTA)? | 2022-11-24 | [["2022-11-25", 0.9], ["2022-11-25", 0.61], ["2022-11-25", 0.68], ["2022-11-25", 0.6333], ["2022-11-25", 0.64], ["2022-11-26", 0.48], ["2022-11-26", 0.484], ["2022-11-26", 0.4867], ["2022-11-26", 0.4386], ["2022-11-26", 0.4386], ["2022-11-26", 0.3838], ["2022-11-26", 0.3411], ["2022-11-26", 0.34], ["2022-11-26", 0.3367], ["2022-11-26", 0.349], ["2022-11-27", 0.3173], ["2022-11-27", 0.295], ["2022-11-27", 0.3185], ["2022-11-27", 0.3192], ["2022-11-28", 0.2964], ["2022-11-28", 0.28], ["2022-11-28", 0.3], ["2022-11-28", 0.3], ["2022-11-29", 0.2427], ["2022-11-29", 0.2619], ["2022-11-29", 0.2343], ["2022-11-29", 0.2458], ["2022-11-30", 0.2615], ["2022-11-30", 0.3], ["2022-11-30", 0.3055], ["2022-12-01", 0.369], ["2022-12-01", 0.368], ["2022-12-02", 0.378], ["2022-12-04", 0.4336], ["2022-12-04", 0.4345], ["2022-12-05", 0.4482], ["2022-12-06", 0.4845], ["2022-12-06", 0.4608], ["2022-12-06", 0.4608], ["2022-12-06", 0.4617], ["2022-12-06", 0.4283], ["2022-12-06", 0.4292], ["2022-12-11", 0.4925], ["2022-12-12", 0.4933], ["2022-12-16", 0.4631], ["2022-12-20", 0.4146], ["2022-12-20", 0.3815], ["2022-12-23", 0.3762], ["2022-12-23", 0.3762], ["2022-12-23", 0.4454], ["2022-12-27", 0.4454], ["2022-12-27", 0.4462], ["2022-12-27", 0.4462], ["2022-12-28", 0.4238], ["2022-12-29", 0.4043], ["2022-12-30", 0.42], ["2023-01-01", 0.36], ["2023-01-03", 0.3607], ["2023-01-04", 0.3607], ["2023-01-05", 0.3607], ["2023-01-05", 0.3543], ["2023-01-07", 0.3529], ["2023-01-07", 0.3814], ["2023-01-09", 0.3814], ["2023-01-11", 0.3627], ["2023-01-12", 0.3587], ["2023-01-19", 0.358], ["2023-01-20", 0.338], ["2023-01-22", 0.33], ["2023-01-26", 0.33], ["2023-01-28", 0.33], ["2023-01-30", 0.2673], ["2023-02-03", 0.2473], ["2023-02-04", 0.244], ["2023-02-07", 0.244], ["2023-02-08", 0.2381], ["2023-02-13", 0.2381], ["2023-02-25", 0.235], ["2023-02-28", 0.2294], ["2023-02-28", 0.2231], ["2023-03-02", 0.2225], ["2023-03-10", 0.2181], ["2023-03-11", 0.2138], ["2023-03-11", 0.1825], ["2023-03-13", 0.1825], ["2023-03-16", 0.1794], ["2023-03-19", 0.1788], ["2023-03-25", 0.1682], ["2023-03-26", 0.1682], ["2023-03-28", 0.1906], ["2023-03-31", 0.2294], ["2023-04-04", 0.2282], ["2023-04-09", 0.2188], ["2023-04-11", 0.2147], ["2023-04-13", 0.2033], ["2023-04-15", 0.1978], ["2023-04-16", 0.1967], ["2023-04-16", 0.2122], ["2023-04-18", 0.1883], ["2023-04-18", 0.1883], ["2023-04-19", 0.1906], ["2023-04-24", 0.1883], ["2023-04-26", 0.1783], ["2023-05-01", 0.1728], ["2023-05-02", 0.1717], ["2023-05-04", 0.1711], ["2023-05-04", 0.1744], ["2023-05-04", 0.1739], ["2023-05-06", 0.1716], ["2023-05-08", 0.1663], ["2023-05-10", 0.1558], ["2023-05-11", 0.1526], ["2023-05-11", 0.1437], ["2023-05-12", 0.15], ["2023-05-17", 0.1495], ["2023-05-25", 0.1495], ["2023-05-30", 0.1489], ["2023-05-30", 0.1489], ["2023-05-31", 0.1484], ["2023-05-31", 0.1474], ["2023-06-01", 0.1432], ["2023-06-08", 0.1432], ["2023-06-09", 0.1437], ["2023-06-10", 0.1426], ["2023-06-14", 0.1421], ["2023-06-17", 0.1379], ["2023-06-19", 0.1384], ["2023-06-21", 0.132], ["2023-06-21", 0.132], ["2023-06-23", 0.132], ["2023-06-26", 0.131], ["2023-06-27", 0.1305], ["2023-07-06", 0.1305], ["2023-07-07", 0.114], ["2023-07-07", 0.114], ["2023-07-08", 0.1086], ["2023-07-09", 0.1076], ["2023-07-10", 0.1124], ["2023-07-10", 0.1109], ["2023-07-10", 0.0873], ["2023-07-10", 0.0745], ["2023-07-11", 0.0757], ["2023-07-11", 0.0835], ["2023-07-11", 0.08], ["2023-07-11", 0.0821], ["2023-07-11", 0.0738], ["2023-07-12", 0.0792], ["2023-07-12", 0.0654], ["2023-07-12", 0.0638], ["2023-07-14", 0.0632], ["2023-07-14", 0.0636], ["2023-07-17", 0.0636], ["2023-07-17", 0.0624], ["2023-07-19", 0.0624], ["2023-07-19", 0.0624], ["2023-07-20", 0.062], ["2023-07-20", 0.0624], ["2023-07-21", 0.062], ["2023-07-21", 0.0624], ["2023-07-22", 0.0624], ["2023-07-23", 0.0644], ["2023-07-23", 0.0627], ["2023-07-25", 0.0473], ["2023-07-25", 0.0481], ["2023-07-25", 0.0458], ["2023-07-25", 0.0431], ["2023-07-25", 0.0427], ["2023-07-25", 0.0408], ["2023-07-25", 0.0408], ["2023-07-26", 0.0408], ["2023-07-26", 0.0404], ["2023-07-26", 0.04], ["2023-07-27", 0.0392], ["2023-07-27", 0.0392], ["2023-07-28", 0.0396], ["2023-07-29", 0.04], ["2023-07-29", 0.04], ["2023-07-29", 0.0396], ["2023-07-30", 0.0381], ["2023-07-30", 0.0381], ["2023-07-31", 0.0359], ["2023-07-31", 0.0344], ["2023-08-01", 0.0344]] | ["https://www.voanews.com/a/taiwan-to-expand-presence-in-india-amid-growing-economic-ties-/7172526.html", "https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2022/11/24/indias-openness-to-a-new-indo-pacific-order/", "https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-taiwan-should-consider-finalising-fta-as-soon-as-possible-taiwan-government-representative/article65987932.ece", "https://www.orfonline.org/research/india-in-the-indo-pacific/", "https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/09/decoding-india-s-revived-free-trade-agreement-rush/", "https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202301170022", "https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3198542/amid-chill-china-ties-india-and-taiwan-look-deeply-engage-electronics-chips-and-green-tech", "https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/how-long-does-it-take-conclude-trade-agreement-us", "https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/dedollarization-india-pushes-rupee-trade-china-yuan-currencies-russia-sanctions-2023-7", "https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/11/tech/india-foxconn-exit-vedanta-chip-joint-venture-intl-hnk/index.html", "https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2023/01/18/2003792775", "https://pulitzercenter.org/stories/path-uncertain-us-taiwan-free-trade-deal-despite-hill-support"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1931 |
<p>President Vladimir Putin has dominated Russian politics since he succeeded Boris Yeltsin as president in 1999 (<a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Vladimir-Putin" target="_blank">Britannica</a>). There has been speculation whether he may step down, even though he's eligible for reelection in 2024 (<a href="https://www.newsweek.com/russia-denies-putin-stepping-down-leader-due-parkinsons-disease-1545425" target="_blank">Newsweek</a>, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/22/russias-putin-signs-bill-giving-presidents-lifetime-immunity" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-01-01 | Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 January 2022? | 2021-02-10 | [["2021-02-10", 0.01], ["2021-02-10", 0.01], ["2021-02-10", 0.01], ["2021-02-10", 0.01], ["2021-02-10", 0.01], ["2021-02-10", 0.01], ["2021-02-10", 0.01], ["2021-02-10", 0.01], ["2021-02-11", 0.01], ["2021-02-11", 0.01], ["2021-02-11", 0.01], ["2021-02-11", 0.01], ["2021-02-11", 0.01], ["2021-02-11", 0.01], ["2021-02-11", 0.01], ["2021-02-11", 0.01], ["2021-02-11", 0.01], ["2021-02-11", 0.01], ["2021-02-11", 0.01], ["2021-02-11", 0.01], ["2021-02-11", 0.01], ["2021-02-11", 0.01], ["2021-02-11", 0.01], ["2021-02-11", 0.01], ["2021-02-11", 0.01], ["2021-02-12", 0.01], ["2021-02-12", 0.01], ["2021-02-12", 0.01], ["2021-02-12", 0.01], ["2021-02-12", 0.01], ["2021-02-12", 0.01], ["2021-02-12", 0.01], ["2021-02-12", 0.01], ["2021-02-12", 0.01], ["2021-02-12", 0.01], ["2021-02-12", 0.01], ["2021-02-12", 0.01], ["2021-02-12", 0.01], ["2021-02-13", 0.01], ["2021-02-13", 0.01], ["2021-02-13", 0.01], ["2021-02-13", 0.01], ["2021-02-14", 0.015], ["2021-02-14", 0.015], ["2021-02-14", 0.02], ["2021-02-14", 0.02], ["2021-02-15", 0.02], ["2021-02-16", 0.02], ["2021-02-17", 0.015], ["2021-02-17", 0.015], ["2021-02-18", 0.015], ["2021-02-18", 0.01], ["2021-02-19", 0.01], ["2021-02-19", 0.01], ["2021-02-20", 0.015], ["2021-02-21", 0.01], ["2021-02-21", 0.01], ["2021-02-22", 0.01], ["2021-02-22", 0.01], ["2021-02-22", 0.01], ["2021-02-23", 0.01], ["2021-02-25", 0.01], ["2021-02-25", 0.01], ["2021-02-25", 0.01], ["2021-02-26", 0.01], ["2021-02-27", 0.01], ["2021-02-28", 0.01], ["2021-03-01", 0.015], ["2021-03-02", 0.02], ["2021-03-02", 0.02], ["2021-03-03", 0.02], ["2021-03-04", 0.02], ["2021-03-06", 0.015], ["2021-03-07", 0.02], ["2021-03-07", 0.01], ["2021-03-07", 0.015], ["2021-03-08", 0.02], ["2021-03-09", 0.02], ["2021-03-10", 0.02], ["2021-03-11", 0.02], 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["2021-05-05", 0.01], ["2021-05-05", 0.01], ["2021-05-07", 0.01], ["2021-05-08", 0.01], ["2021-05-10", 0.01], ["2021-05-11", 0.01], ["2021-05-12", 0.01], ["2021-05-13", 0.01], ["2021-05-14", 0.01], ["2021-05-15", 0.01], ["2021-05-17", 0.01], ["2021-05-18", 0.01], ["2021-05-21", 0.01], ["2021-05-24", 0.01], ["2021-05-25", 0.01], ["2021-05-27", 0.01], ["2021-05-28", 0.01], ["2021-06-01", 0.01], ["2021-06-02", 0.01], ["2021-06-03", 0.01], ["2021-06-06", 0.01], ["2021-06-08", 0.01], ["2021-06-10", 0.01], ["2021-06-13", 0.01], ["2021-06-16", 0.01], ["2021-06-17", 0.01], ["2021-06-19", 0.01], ["2021-06-21", 0.01], ["2021-06-24", 0.01], ["2021-06-26", 0.01], ["2021-06-28", 0.01], ["2021-06-29", 0.01], ["2021-07-01", 0.01], ["2021-07-03", 0.01], ["2021-07-05", 0.01], ["2021-07-06", 0.01], ["2021-07-07", 0.01], ["2021-07-08", 0.01], ["2021-07-09", 0.01], ["2021-07-10", 0.01], ["2021-07-10", 0.01], ["2021-07-12", 0.01], ["2021-07-13", 0.01], ["2021-07-19", 0.01], ["2021-07-21", 0.01], 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["2021-12-20", 0.0], ["2021-12-22", 0.0], ["2021-12-23", 0.0], ["2021-12-23", 0.0], ["2021-12-25", 0.0], ["2021-12-25", 0.0], ["2021-12-26", 0.0], ["2021-12-27", 0.0], ["2021-12-27", 0.0], ["2021-12-28", 0.0], ["2021-12-29", 0.0], ["2021-12-30", 0.0], ["2021-12-31", 0.0], ["2022-01-01", 0.0]] | ["https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/vladimir-putin-president-russia-signs-law-allowing-2-more-presidential-terms/", "https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/01/29/pandemic-pushed-russians-household-finances-to-decade-low-a72773", "https://news.yahoo.com/russia-plans-one-off-payments-134130111.html", "https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2021/03/why-russians-still-choose-vladimir-putin-s-stability-over-alexei-navalny-s", "https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/09/04/us-president-putin-russia-democracy-504417", "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html#fn1", "https://www.forbes.com/profile/vladimir-putin/?sh=5cb742766fc5", "http://www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org/countries/russian-federation/", "https://jamestown.org/program/behind-the-rumors-of-putins-illness-distraction-or-signal-of-looming-changes-at-the-top/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_heads_of_state_and_government_who_died_in_office", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Revolution", "https://www.politico.eu/article/nord-stream-2-is-one-hundred-percent-anti-ukrainian-ukrainian-deputy-minister-says/", "https://www.ft.com/content/59498c92-799f-4c61-ac2e-77e7e302cc32", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u8-E2LswmGk", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/25/world/europe/navalny-jail-prison.html", "https://ecfr.eu/article/the-trouble-with-unchecked-power-why-putin-will-never-leave/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dissolution_of_the_Soviet_Union", "https://www.rt.com/russia/516680-putin-presidency-fifth-term/", "https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20210914-putin-self-isolating-after-covid-spreads-among-inner-circle", "https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/03/15/russia-putin-invasion-ukraine-baltics-nato-475527", "https://apnews.com/article/sports-government-and-politics-business-europe-russia-7d9a08ab67d7a3a14bfaa5c7a9ed478d", "https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN?locations=RU", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russian-politics-navalny-sanctions-idUSKBN2AI1WU", "https://www.amazon.com/Russians-Hedrick-Smith/dp/0812905210/ref=sr_1_1?crid=25WQ76KDESZO9&dchild=1&keywords=the+russians+hedrick+smith&qid=1616042267&s=books&sprefix=the+russians+%2Cstripbooks%2C214&sr=1-1", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/25/world/europe/navalny-interview-excerpts.html"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-06-23 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2233 |
<p>Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his agenda are facing a number of challenges, including Brexit, COVID-19, and scandals (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/boris-johnsons-infrastructure-schemes-will-face-opposition" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.axios.com/boris-johnson-bad-month-polls-4606bf26-c5bc-415f-aa3f-1efe959ee36c.html" target="_blank">Axios</a>, <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20211219-uk-brexit-negotiator-frost-resigns-in-further-blow-to-pm-johnson" target="_blank">France 24</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2021/dec/14/uk-covid-live-lateral-flow-tests-unavailable-online-england-boris-johnson-booster-coronavirus-latest-updates" target="_blank">Guardian</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-06-23 | Before 23 June 2022, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom? | 2021-12-23 | [["2021-12-23", 0.75], ["2021-12-23", 0.65], ["2021-12-23", 0.54], ["2021-12-24", 0.35], ["2021-12-24", 0.28], ["2021-12-24", 0.245], ["2021-12-24", 0.245], ["2021-12-24", 0.2], ["2021-12-24", 0.2], ["2021-12-24", 0.2], ["2021-12-25", 0.2], ["2021-12-25", 0.2], ["2021-12-25", 0.2], ["2021-12-25", 0.155], ["2021-12-26", 0.19], ["2021-12-26", 0.195], ["2021-12-26", 0.15], ["2021-12-27", 0.15], ["2021-12-27", 0.15], ["2021-12-27", 0.15], ["2021-12-27", 0.15], ["2021-12-27", 0.15], ["2021-12-27", 0.15], ["2021-12-27", 0.15], ["2021-12-28", 0.15], ["2021-12-28", 0.18], ["2021-12-28", 0.2], ["2021-12-28", 0.2], ["2021-12-29", 0.17], ["2021-12-29", 0.2], ["2021-12-29", 0.2], ["2021-12-29", 0.2], ["2021-12-29", 0.2], ["2021-12-29", 0.2], ["2021-12-29", 0.2], ["2021-12-30", 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"https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/uks-boris-johnson-awaits-judgment-105803660.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1461829", "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/feature/image/90413/s465_PM_Infrastructure_gov.uk.png", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/may/24/boris-johnson-sue-gray-report-partygate-photos-uk-politics-latest", "https://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-politics-60289386", "https://wtxnews.com/news-briefing/the-guardian-its-almost-over/", "https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jun/08/uk-to-be-major-economy-worst-hit-by-ukraine-war-says-oecd", "https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/boris-johnson-held-secret-meeting-093300856.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_vote_of_confidence_in_the_May_ministry", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Conservative_Party_leadership_election", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0a3TI909QU&t=1050s", "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61645661", "https://i.pinimg.com/originals/ec/36/67/ec36674f01715f95b3e5ea1da6a90ce6.jpg", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/jun/06/boris-johnson-confidence-vote-graham-brady-tory-mps-live", "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61653755", "https://apnews.com/article/boris-johnson-theresa-may-london-government-and-politics-00b21e3552b95cc067ce42e163b80df9", "https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-pm-boris-johnson-westminster-tory-no-confidence-vote/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2507 |
<p>The PRC responded to US Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, which the PRC considers its sovereign territory, with condemnation and newly-announced military drills around the island nation (<a href="https://apnews.com/article/taiwan-asia-beijing-nancy-pelosi-taipei-938933cfaea62b31e7577b0a2a4f7006" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/02/politics/nancy-pelosi-taiwan-parliament-visit/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-relations" target="_blank">Council on Foreign Relations</a>). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-01-01 | Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 January 2023? | 2022-08-05 | [["2022-08-05", 0.79], ["2022-08-05", 0.395], ["2022-08-05", 0.1], ["2022-08-05", 0.06], ["2022-08-05", 0.1], ["2022-08-05", 0.065], ["2022-08-05", 0.1], ["2022-08-05", 0.125], ["2022-08-05", 0.15], ["2022-08-05", 0.15], ["2022-08-05", 0.125], ["2022-08-05", 0.125], ["2022-08-05", 0.11], ["2022-08-05", 0.11], ["2022-08-05", 0.075], ["2022-08-05", 0.06], ["2022-08-05", 0.06], ["2022-08-06", 0.04], ["2022-08-06", 0.025], ["2022-08-06", 0.025], ["2022-08-06", 0.025], ["2022-08-06", 0.04], ["2022-08-06", 0.06], ["2022-08-06", 0.06], ["2022-08-06", 0.08], ["2022-08-06", 0.095], ["2022-08-06", 0.095], ["2022-08-06", 0.11], ["2022-08-07", 0.11], ["2022-08-07", 0.1], 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0.026], ["2022-12-05", 0.0254], ["2022-12-05", 0.0252], ["2022-12-06", 0.0254], ["2022-12-06", 0.0246], ["2022-12-06", 0.0238], ["2022-12-06", 0.0237], ["2022-12-06", 0.0227], ["2022-12-06", 0.0221], ["2022-12-06", 0.0213], ["2022-12-07", 0.0209], ["2022-12-07", 0.0208], ["2022-12-07", 0.0206], ["2022-12-07", 0.0198], ["2022-12-07", 0.0191], ["2022-12-07", 0.0187], ["2022-12-08", 0.0185], ["2022-12-08", 0.0183], ["2022-12-08", 0.0183], ["2022-12-08", 0.0167], ["2022-12-09", 0.0165], ["2022-12-09", 0.0146], ["2022-12-09", 0.0141], ["2022-12-10", 0.0137], ["2022-12-11", 0.0133], ["2022-12-11", 0.0135], ["2022-12-11", 0.0133], ["2022-12-11", 0.0131], ["2022-12-12", 0.0131], ["2022-12-12", 0.0131], ["2022-12-12", 0.013], ["2022-12-13", 0.0122], ["2022-12-13", 0.0122], ["2022-12-13", 0.0113], ["2022-12-14", 0.0109], ["2022-12-14", 0.0109], ["2022-12-15", 0.0107], ["2022-12-15", 0.0106], ["2022-12-16", 0.0106], ["2022-12-16", 0.0106], ["2022-12-16", 0.0104], ["2022-12-16", 0.0104], 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["2023-01-01", 0.0068]] | ["https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-shooting-down-drone-near-china-was-appropriate-premier-says-2022-09-02/", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-will-focus-on-preparing-for-war-xi-jinping-declares/ar-AA13RBoR", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Taiwan_Strait_Crisis", "https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.dw.com/en/will-chinas-emboldened-xi-jinping-take-a-gamble-on-taiwan/a-63683310", "https://thediplomat.com/2022/08/chinas-new-white-paper-lays-out-vision-for-post-reunification-taiwan/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/20th_National_Congress_of_the_Chinese_Communist_Party", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/4/is-china-preparing-to-invade-taiwan-key-questions-answered", "https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/11/14/readout-of-president-joe-bidens-meeting-with-president-xi-jinping-of-the-peoples-republic-of-china/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-lodges-complaint-after-biden-says-us-would-defend-taiwan-chinese-invasion-2022-09-19/", "https://warontherocks.com/2022/09/not-so-fast-insights-from-a-1944-war-help-explain-why-invading-taiwan-is-a-costly-gamble/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-01/chip-tycoon-vows-to-fund-taiwan-s-civilian-army-against-china", "https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/22/asia/taiwan-officer-corruption-charge-intl-hnk/index.html", "https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/u-s--defense-secretary-sees-no-imminent-invasion-of-taiwan-by-china/47947800", "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwanese-foreign-minister-warns-china-preparing-invasion-2022-08-09/", "https://news.sky.com/story/china-protests-latest-utterly-extraordinary-scenes-as-protesters-shout-down-with-xi-jinping-12757014", "https://english.news.cn/20220810/df9d3b8702154b34bbf1d451b99bf64a/c.html", "https://www.dw.com/en/german-lawmakers-arrive-in-taiwan-amid-regional-tensions/a-63310721", "https://hcss.nl/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/HCSS_StratMon_web_Territorial.pdf", "https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/13/politics/joe-biden-xi-jinping-meeting-g20-bali/index.html", "https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/china/taiwan-military-attack-pelosi-latest-news-b2139448.html"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-04-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2506 |
<p>As Russia's war in Ukraine continues, there is continued speculation that Putin may recognize Transnistria, a breakaway region in eastern Moldova on Ukraine's western border, which already hosts Russian peacekeepers (<a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Transdniestria" target="_blank">Britannica</a>, <a href="https://ecfr.eu/publication/the-next-war-how-russian-hybrid-aggression-could-threaten-moldova/" target="_blank">European Council on Foreign Relations</a>, <a href="https://balkaninsight.com/2022/07/22/moldova-defends-action-blocking-russian-troop-rotation-in-transnistria/" target="_blank">Balkan Insight</a>, <a href="https://www.g4media.ro/rusii-avertizeaza-asupra-reizbucnirii-conflictului-in-transnistria-se-invoca-blocade-virtuale-si-necesitatea-de-modernizare-a-echipamentului-militar-al-trupelor-ruse-din-transnistria.html" target="_blank">G4 Media</a> [in Romanian]).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. 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255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-04-01 | Will Russia officially recognize Transnistria (Pridnestrovskaia Moldavskaia Republic) in Moldova as an independent state before 1 April 2023? | 2022-08-05 | [["2022-08-05", 0.495], ["2022-08-05", 0.735], ["2022-08-05", 0.6566666666666666], ["2022-08-05", 0.64375], ["2022-08-05", 0.635], ["2022-08-06", 0.646], ["2022-08-06", 0.576], ["2022-08-07", 0.676], ["2022-08-07", 0.577], ["2022-08-07", 0.562], ["2022-08-07", 0.506], ["2022-08-07", 0.381], ["2022-08-08", 0.371], ["2022-08-08", 0.306], ["2022-08-08", 0.33090909090909093], ["2022-08-08", 0.30363636363636365], ["2022-08-08", 0.37666666666666665], ["2022-08-08", 0.3523076923076923], ["2022-08-09", 0.375], ["2022-08-09", 0.36142857142857143], ["2022-08-09", 0.444], ["2022-08-09", 0.461875], ["2022-08-09", 0.458125], ["2022-08-10", 0.42875], ["2022-08-10", 0.410625], ["2022-08-10", 0.3864705882352941], ["2022-08-10", 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0.1793], ["2022-09-07", 0.2225], ["2022-09-07", 0.2118], ["2022-09-08", 0.2079], ["2022-09-09", 0.1983], ["2022-09-10", 0.1941], ["2022-09-11", 0.191], ["2022-09-11", 0.192], ["2022-09-12", 0.188], ["2022-09-12", 0.1877], ["2022-09-13", 0.188], ["2022-09-13", 0.1847], ["2022-09-14", 0.1823], ["2022-09-14", 0.1813], ["2022-09-14", 0.1858], ["2022-09-15", 0.1787], ["2022-09-16", 0.1771], ["2022-09-17", 0.1768], ["2022-09-18", 0.1845], ["2022-09-19", 0.1934], ["2022-09-20", 0.1913], ["2022-09-20", 0.1922], ["2022-09-21", 0.1713], ["2022-09-21", 0.1672], ["2022-09-24", 0.1656], ["2022-09-24", 0.1616], ["2022-09-25", 0.1585], ["2022-09-26", 0.1582], ["2022-09-27", 0.1542], ["2022-09-29", 0.167], ["2022-09-30", 0.1612], ["2022-09-30", 0.1609], ["2022-10-01", 0.1603], ["2022-10-02", 0.1312], ["2022-10-04", 0.1332], ["2022-10-05", 0.1277], ["2022-10-06", 0.1271], ["2022-10-06", 0.1269], ["2022-10-07", 0.114], ["2022-10-07", 0.1114], ["2022-10-09", 0.1066], ["2022-10-10", 0.1069], 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["2023-02-08", 0.0689], ["2023-02-09", 0.0689], ["2023-02-10", 0.0716], ["2023-02-10", 0.0739], ["2023-02-11", 0.08], ["2023-02-13", 0.0804], ["2023-02-14", 0.0816], ["2023-02-14", 0.082], ["2023-02-15", 0.0836], ["2023-02-15", 0.0849], ["2023-02-15", 0.0849], ["2023-02-16", 0.0704], ["2023-02-18", 0.072], ["2023-02-18", 0.0716], ["2023-02-19", 0.0673], ["2023-02-20", 0.0644], ["2023-02-21", 0.065], ["2023-02-21", 0.0657], ["2023-02-22", 0.0707], ["2023-02-22", 0.0707], ["2023-02-23", 0.0717], ["2023-02-23", 0.0717], ["2023-02-24", 0.0657], ["2023-02-25", 0.0667], ["2023-02-26", 0.0646], ["2023-03-01", 0.073], ["2023-03-02", 0.0715], ["2023-03-03", 0.0713], ["2023-03-03", 0.0719], ["2023-03-04", 0.0704], ["2023-03-05", 0.0704], ["2023-03-06", 0.0694], ["2023-03-07", 0.0671], ["2023-03-08", 0.0667], ["2023-03-09", 0.0642], ["2023-03-09", 0.0733], ["2023-03-09", 0.0673], ["2023-03-10", 0.0665], ["2023-03-12", 0.0686], ["2023-03-13", 0.0676], ["2023-03-14", 0.0655], ["2023-03-15", 0.0614], ["2023-03-16", 0.0627], ["2023-03-17", 0.0674], ["2023-03-17", 0.0672], ["2023-03-17", 0.0634], ["2023-03-18", 0.0654], ["2023-03-20", 0.0652], ["2023-03-20", 0.065], ["2023-03-20", 0.0622], ["2023-03-21", 0.0622], ["2023-03-22", 0.0598], ["2023-03-22", 0.0567], ["2023-03-24", 0.0565], ["2023-03-25", 0.0557], ["2023-03-25", 0.0522], ["2023-03-25", 0.0504], ["2023-03-25", 0.0494], ["2023-03-25", 0.0484], ["2023-03-25", 0.0486], ["2023-03-25", 0.0471], ["2023-03-26", 0.0469], ["2023-03-26", 0.046], ["2023-03-27", 0.046], ["2023-03-29", 0.0454], ["2023-03-29", 0.0454], ["2023-03-29", 0.0453], ["2023-03-30", 0.0449], ["2023-03-31", 0.0442], ["2023-03-31", 0.0438], ["2023-03-31", 0.0425], ["2023-03-31", 0.0413], ["2023-04-01", 0.0283], ["2023-04-01", 0.0278]] | ["https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1524606", "https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-sergey-lavrov-moldova-d72c91e29e87e5611811e0df6f0cb078", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-warns-moldova-not-threaten-its-troops-breakaway-region-2022-09-01/", "https://www.thedailybeast.com/lloyd-austin-defense-secretary-says-us-is-now-aiming-to-degrade-russian-military-in-ukraine", "https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ethnic-minorities-independence-ukraine-war/32210542.html", "https://www.euronews.com/2022/09/06/ukraine-war-putin-approves-new-foreign-policy-tensions-rise-at-plant-american-actors-sanct", "https://open.spotify.com/episode/57fcXyJ5b1koP0jrWLr5Ps?si=62984f0a98bc469a", "https://www.russia-briefing.com/news/transnistria-the-next-european-republic-to-rejoin-russia.html/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/moldova-fears-new-russian-push-towards-breakaway-east-next-year-spy-chief-2022-12-19/", "https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-22-2023", "https://tass.com/defense/1580745", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-cancels-decree-underpinning-moldovas-sovereignty-separatist-conflict-2023-02-22/", "https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/what-russia", "http://web.stanford.edu/class/polisci211z/2.1/Goemans%202001%20Ch.1,10.pdf", "https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-09-05/putin-approves-new-foreign-policy-doctrine-based-on-russian-world", "https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-2-23-23/h_2e7662bee99ab1e1c657a97935849d89", "https://lite.cnn.com/en/article/h_c4e462d39fd667b36b8871883265173e", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/moldova-warns-of-russian-psy-ops-as-tensions-rise/ar-AA17RaBx", "https://www.digi24.ro/stiri/externe/republica-moldova-respinge-acuzatiile-rusiei-ca-ucraina-vrea-sa-invadeze-transnistria-2261473", "https://www.forexlive.com/news/russia-has-flagged-an-armed-provocation-against-transnistria-moldova-20230223/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dUtotCqX3CE", "https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20221122-gazprom-says-ukraine-diverting-moldova-gas-supplies-threatens-cuts", "https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-2-23-23/h_b4e10f83e0d32d58d07d803337dfb63a", "https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1625110656419614721", "https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-14"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-09-10 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2314 |
<p>As fighting continues in Ukraine, there are concerns that Russia may deploy nuclear weapons westward in the region (<a href="https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/02/28/eu-decries-potential-russian-nuclear-weapons-deployment-after-belarus-referendum/" target="_blank">Defense News</a>, <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/defense/596228-us-refuses-to-take-bait-on-russias-nuclear-threats" target="_blank">The Hill</a>, <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/to-decipher-putins-nuclear-threats-watch-what-he-does-not-what-he-says/" target="_blank">Atlantic Council</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 8 July 2022</span>: Ukraine includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2022-09-11 | Between 11 March 2022 and 9 September 2022, will Russia publicly announce that it has moved nuclear weapons into either Belarus or Ukraine? | 2022-03-10 | [["2022-03-11", 0.575], ["2022-03-11", 0.64], ["2022-03-11", 0.4725], ["2022-03-11", 0.4116666666666667], ["2022-03-11", 0.34125], ["2022-03-11", 0.278], ["2022-03-11", 0.191], ["2022-03-11", 0.17], ["2022-03-12", 0.113], ["2022-03-12", 0.115], ["2022-03-12", 0.14], ["2022-03-12", 0.159], ["2022-03-12", 0.162], ["2022-03-12", 0.31], ["2022-03-12", 0.44], ["2022-03-12", 0.424], ["2022-03-12", 0.3881818181818182], ["2022-03-12", 0.3908333333333333], ["2022-03-12", 0.39166666666666666], 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True | 2023-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2248 |
<p>After using a legislative workaround to bypass the 60-vote requirement for an increase in the debt ceiling, Democrats are struggling to find other ways to bypass the filibuster (<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/09/politics/republicans-broke-debt-ceiling-filibuster/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/590099-democrats-ponder-plan-b-strategy-to-circumvent-voting-rights-filibuster" target="_blank">The Hill</a>). A change requiring action outside of the Senate (e.g., congressional legislation) would not count (e.g., <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/610" target="_blank">Senate Bill 610</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? 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To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-01-01 | Before 1 January 2023, will the US Senate independently expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used? | 2022-01-20 | [["2022-01-21", 0.0], ["2022-01-21", 0.15], ["2022-01-21", 0.13333333333333333], ["2022-01-21", 0.13666666666666666], ["2022-01-21", 0.125], ["2022-01-21", 0.112], ["2022-01-21", 0.09833333333333333], ["2022-01-21", 0.08428571428571428], ["2022-01-21", 0.08625], ["2022-01-22", 0.07666666666666666], ["2022-01-22", 0.074], ["2022-01-22", 0.076], ["2022-01-22", 0.047], ["2022-01-22", 0.066], ["2022-01-22", 0.057], ["2022-01-22", 0.061], ["2022-01-22", 0.108], ["2022-01-22", 0.11], ["2022-01-22", 0.115], ["2022-01-22", 0.106], ["2022-01-22", 0.111], ["2022-01-22", 0.111], ["2022-01-22", 0.109], ["2022-01-22", 0.109], ["2022-01-22", 0.081], ["2022-01-22", 0.095], ["2022-01-22", 0.095], ["2022-01-22", 0.11], ["2022-01-22", 0.05], ["2022-01-22", 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["2022-02-08", 0.1], ["2022-02-08", 0.11352941176470588], ["2022-02-08", 0.11352941176470588], ["2022-02-08", 0.11323529411764706], ["2022-02-09", 0.11529411764705882], ["2022-02-09", 0.11529411764705882], ["2022-02-09", 0.112], ["2022-02-10", 0.10771428571428572], ["2022-02-11", 0.10742857142857143], ["2022-02-11", 0.10885714285714286], ["2022-02-12", 0.10857142857142857], ["2022-02-12", 0.10857142857142857], ["2022-02-12", 0.10857142857142857], ["2022-02-12", 0.10555555555555556], ["2022-02-12", 0.10527777777777778], ["2022-02-13", 0.105], ["2022-02-13", 0.10333333333333333], ["2022-02-14", 0.10305555555555555], ["2022-02-14", 0.10277777777777777], ["2022-02-16", 0.10166666666666667], ["2022-02-17", 0.10027777777777777], ["2022-02-17", 0.1], ["2022-02-18", 0.09944444444444445], ["2022-02-18", 0.09333333333333334], ["2022-02-18", 0.09083333333333334], ["2022-02-19", 0.09638888888888889], ["2022-02-19", 0.09638888888888889], ["2022-02-20", 0.09472222222222222], ["2022-02-20", 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["2022-03-18", 0.045641025641025644], ["2022-03-18", 0.046153846153846156], ["2022-03-18", 0.046153846153846156], ["2022-03-20", 0.046153846153846156], ["2022-03-21", 0.046153846153846156], ["2022-03-22", 0.0458974358974359], ["2022-03-23", 0.0458974358974359], ["2022-03-25", 0.06512820512820512], ["2022-03-26", 0.06487179487179487], ["2022-03-27", 0.06487179487179487], ["2022-03-28", 0.06435897435897436], ["2022-04-01", 0.05846153846153846], ["2022-04-04", 0.05846153846153846], ["2022-04-04", 0.05897435897435897], ["2022-04-05", 0.0575], ["2022-04-06", 0.05775], ["2022-04-07", 0.048], ["2022-04-08", 0.04575], ["2022-04-15", 0.04575], ["2022-04-18", 0.0455], ["2022-04-18", 0.0455], ["2022-04-19", 0.04525], ["2022-04-25", 0.045], ["2022-04-27", 0.045], ["2022-05-02", 0.045], ["2022-05-03", 0.048], ["2022-05-13", 0.0475], ["2022-05-13", 0.0475], ["2022-05-16", 0.0475], ["2022-05-16", 0.04725], ["2022-05-23", 0.04725], ["2022-05-30", 0.046097560975609755], ["2022-06-01", 0.04365853658536585], ["2022-06-03", 0.04365853658536585], ["2022-06-03", 0.0448780487804878], ["2022-06-06", 0.0448780487804878], ["2022-06-09", 0.045121951219512194], ["2022-06-10", 0.045121951219512194], ["2022-06-10", 0.045365853658536584], ["2022-06-11", 0.04439024390243902], ["2022-06-12", 0.04317073170731707], ["2022-06-13", 0.04317073170731707], ["2022-06-18", 0.03829268292682927], ["2022-06-19", 0.03804878048780488], ["2022-06-20", 0.03804878048780488], ["2022-06-26", 0.03829268292682927], ["2022-06-28", 0.03829268292682927], ["2022-06-30", 0.03951219512195122], ["2022-07-02", 0.03926829268292683], ["2022-07-02", 0.03926829268292683], ["2022-07-03", 0.03926829268292683], ["2022-07-05", 0.03926829268292683], ["2022-07-14", 0.03926829268292683], ["2022-07-14", 0.03804878048780488], ["2022-07-15", 0.03804878048780488], ["2022-07-18", 0.03804878048780488], ["2022-07-20", 0.03780487804878049], ["2022-07-20", 0.03829268292682927], ["2022-07-21", 0.03804878048780488], ["2022-07-25", 0.03804878048780488], ["2022-07-28", 0.037560975609756096], ["2022-07-29", 0.037560975609756096], ["2022-07-30", 0.03780487804878049], ["2022-08-01", 0.036829268292682925], ["2022-08-03", 0.036829268292682925], ["2022-08-08", 0.036829268292682925], ["2022-08-10", 0.03595238095238095], ["2022-08-13", 0.03571428571428571], ["2022-08-13", 0.03357142857142857], ["2022-08-17", 0.03357142857142857], ["2022-08-18", 0.03357142857142857], ["2022-08-22", 0.0336], ["2022-08-25", 0.0336], ["2022-08-27", 0.0336], ["2022-09-02", 0.0336], ["2022-09-03", 0.0336], ["2022-09-09", 0.0348], ["2022-09-09", 0.0348], ["2022-09-10", 0.0348], ["2022-09-11", 0.0343], ["2022-09-12", 0.0343], ["2022-09-15", 0.0331], ["2022-09-16", 0.0323], ["2022-09-20", 0.0323], ["2022-09-20", 0.033], ["2022-09-27", 0.0328], ["2022-09-27", 0.0333], ["2022-09-28", 0.0326], ["2022-10-02", 0.0291], ["2022-10-03", 0.0291], ["2022-10-06", 0.0305], ["2022-10-07", 0.0302], ["2022-10-07", 0.0298], ["2022-10-09", 0.0295], ["2022-10-10", 0.0284], ["2022-10-10", 0.0284], ["2022-10-12", 0.0284], ["2022-10-16", 0.03], ["2022-10-16", 0.0298], ["2022-10-18", 0.0298], ["2022-10-21", 0.0525], ["2022-10-22", 0.0541], ["2022-10-23", 0.0314], ["2022-10-24", 0.0314], ["2022-10-25", 0.0311], ["2022-10-26", 0.0311], ["2022-11-06", 0.0311], ["2022-11-07", 0.0311], ["2022-11-07", 0.0311], ["2022-11-10", 0.0311], ["2022-11-13", 0.0334], ["2022-11-14", 0.0336], ["2022-11-14", 0.0339], ["2022-11-17", 0.0339], ["2022-11-17", 0.0339], ["2022-11-17", 0.0339], ["2022-11-17", 0.0341], ["2022-11-22", 0.0341], ["2022-11-23", 0.0336], ["2022-11-28", 0.0339], ["2022-11-28", 0.0339], ["2022-11-29", 0.0336], ["2022-11-29", 0.0336], ["2022-11-30", 0.0336], ["2022-11-30", 0.0336], ["2022-11-30", 0.0329], ["2022-12-03", 0.0318], ["2022-12-04", 0.0316], ["2022-12-06", 0.0316], ["2022-12-07", 0.0316], ["2022-12-07", 0.0309], ["2022-12-08", 0.0298], ["2022-12-14", 0.0276], ["2022-12-14", 0.0276], ["2022-12-14", 0.0276], ["2022-12-18", 0.0276], ["2022-12-19", 0.0276], ["2022-12-19", 0.0276], ["2022-12-20", 0.0276], ["2022-12-21", 0.027], ["2022-12-22", 0.0268], ["2022-12-24", 0.0263], ["2022-12-25", 0.0263], ["2022-12-25", 0.026], ["2022-12-26", 0.026], ["2022-12-27", 0.0256], ["2022-12-27", 0.0256], ["2022-12-28", 0.0256], ["2022-12-29", 0.0251], ["2022-12-30", 0.0249], ["2022-12-30", 0.0245], ["2022-12-31", 0.024], ["2023-01-01", 0.024]] | ["https://www.politico.com/news/2022/01/25/senate-filibuster-jeff-merkley-00001394", "https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/newsplus/the-future-of-the-filibuster-and-voting-rights-in-congress/", "https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2022/09/26/sen-kyrsten-sinema-praises-filibuster-sen-mitch-mcconnell-louisville/8119850001/?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20220927&instance_id=73051&nl=the-morning&regi_id=188633544&segment_id=108230&te=1&user_I%27d=4f953d5937d55c99469418f350cd12f2", "https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2022/11/republicans-win-house-congress-majority-fight-democrats/672083/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1220202", "https://www.jsa.org/the-future-of-the-filibuster/;", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/01/21/filibuster-voting-rights-manchin-sinema/;", "https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/newsplus/the-future-of-the-filibuster-and-voting-rights-in-congress/;", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/25/democratic-promises-change-filibuster-could-be-casualty-midterms/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2053 |
<p>The truck tonnage index measures gross tonnage of freight moved by motor carriers in the US (<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/truck-tonnage-index.asp" target="_blank">Investopedia</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as first reported by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (<a href="https://data.bts.gov/Research-and-Statistics/Truck-Tonnage-Seasonally-Adjusted-Index-/6hvx-3geb" target="_blank">BTS</a>). If the question is still open after November 2021 figures are reported, the question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome determined once figures are reported for December 2021, expected in January 2022. Revisions would be immaterial.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 8 September 2021</span>: The BTS link has been updated.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-02-09 | Will the US Truck Tonnage Index reach or exceed 120.0 before 1 January 2022? | 2021-06-25 | [["2021-06-25", 1.0], ["2021-06-25", 1.0], ["2021-06-25", 1.0], ["2021-06-25", 1.0], ["2021-06-26", 1.0], ["2021-06-26", 0.525], ["2021-06-26", 0.05], ["2021-06-26", 0.1], ["2021-06-26", 0.05], ["2021-06-26", 0.05], ["2021-06-26", 0.075], ["2021-06-26", 0.1], ["2021-06-26", 0.125], ["2021-06-26", 0.15], ["2021-06-26", 0.185], ["2021-06-26", 0.185], ["2021-06-26", 0.22], ["2021-06-27", 0.245], ["2021-06-27", 0.27], ["2021-06-27", 0.27], ["2021-06-28", 0.27], ["2021-06-28", 0.265], ["2021-06-28", 0.27], ["2021-06-28", 0.285], ["2021-06-28", 0.27], ["2021-06-28", 0.26], ["2021-06-29", 0.285], ["2021-06-29", 0.27], ["2021-06-29", 0.3], ["2021-06-29", 0.265], ["2021-06-30", 0.27], ["2021-06-30", 0.22], ["2021-06-30", 0.22], ["2021-06-30", 0.18], ["2021-06-30", 0.22], ["2021-06-30", 0.26], ["2021-07-01", 0.18], ["2021-07-01", 0.18], ["2021-07-01", 0.24], ["2021-07-01", 0.165], ["2021-07-02", 0.225], ["2021-07-02", 0.225], ["2021-07-02", 0.2], ["2021-07-02", 0.2], ["2021-07-03", 0.275], ["2021-07-03", 0.3], ["2021-07-04", 0.3], ["2021-07-04", 0.3], ["2021-07-06", 0.27], ["2021-07-06", 0.27], ["2021-07-07", 0.285], ["2021-07-08", 0.285], ["2021-07-09", 0.285], ["2021-07-10", 0.285], ["2021-07-10", 0.285], ["2021-07-10", 0.285], ["2021-07-10", 0.285], ["2021-07-11", 0.27], ["2021-07-12", 0.27], ["2021-07-13", 0.26], ["2021-07-13", 0.26], ["2021-07-14", 0.23], ["2021-07-15", 0.23], ["2021-07-15", 0.22], ["2021-07-15", 0.22], ["2021-07-15", 0.24], ["2021-07-15", 0.22], ["2021-07-16", 0.19], ["2021-07-16", 0.19], ["2021-07-16", 0.145], ["2021-07-16", 0.12], ["2021-07-17", 0.12], ["2021-07-17", 0.12], ["2021-07-17", 0.12], ["2021-07-18", 0.12], ["2021-07-18", 0.12], ["2021-07-19", 0.12], ["2021-07-19", 0.135], ["2021-07-19", 0.135], ["2021-07-19", 0.135], ["2021-07-19", 0.135], ["2021-07-19", 0.15], ["2021-07-19", 0.15], ["2021-07-22", 0.15], ["2021-07-22", 0.135], ["2021-07-23", 0.13], ["2021-07-24", 0.12], ["2021-07-24", 0.12], ["2021-07-24", 0.13], ["2021-07-24", 0.13], ["2021-07-24", 0.13], ["2021-07-26", 0.13], ["2021-07-27", 0.17], ["2021-07-27", 0.17], ["2021-07-28", 0.185], ["2021-07-28", 0.185], ["2021-07-30", 0.185], ["2021-07-30", 0.185], ["2021-07-30", 0.185], ["2021-08-01", 0.185], ["2021-08-02", 0.185], ["2021-08-03", 0.195], ["2021-08-03", 0.195], ["2021-08-05", 0.195], ["2021-08-06", 0.195], ["2021-08-06", 0.215], ["2021-08-06", 0.215], ["2021-08-07", 0.165], ["2021-08-08", 0.2], ["2021-08-10", 0.2], ["2021-08-11", 0.2], ["2021-08-11", 0.2], ["2021-08-11", 0.2], ["2021-08-12", 0.215], ["2021-08-12", 0.255], ["2021-08-12", 0.255], ["2021-08-12", 0.255], ["2021-08-12", 0.215], ["2021-08-13", 0.2], ["2021-08-13", 0.2], ["2021-08-13", 0.2], ["2021-08-13", 0.2], ["2021-08-14", 0.15], ["2021-08-14", 0.15], ["2021-08-14", 0.115], ["2021-08-16", 0.1], ["2021-08-16", 0.1], ["2021-08-16", 0.1], ["2021-08-17", 0.1], ["2021-08-17", 0.1], ["2021-08-17", 0.1], ["2021-08-18", 0.1], ["2021-08-19", 0.1], ["2021-08-19", 0.1], ["2021-08-20", 0.1], ["2021-08-20", 0.1], ["2021-08-21", 0.1], ["2021-08-22", 0.1], ["2021-08-22", 0.1], ["2021-08-23", 0.1], ["2021-08-23", 0.1], ["2021-08-26", 0.1], ["2021-08-27", 0.1], ["2021-08-28", 0.1], ["2021-08-28", 0.1], ["2021-08-28", 0.09], ["2021-08-29", 0.075], ["2021-08-29", 0.075], ["2021-08-29", 0.07], ["2021-08-29", 0.07], ["2021-08-29", 0.07], ["2021-08-29", 0.07], ["2021-08-30", 0.07], ["2021-08-30", 0.07], ["2021-08-31", 0.07], ["2021-08-31", 0.07], ["2021-09-01", 0.07], ["2021-09-01", 0.07], ["2021-09-01", 0.07], ["2021-09-01", 0.07], ["2021-09-01", 0.07], ["2021-09-01", 0.07], ["2021-09-02", 0.07], ["2021-09-02", 0.07], ["2021-09-02", 0.07], ["2021-09-02", 0.07], ["2021-09-04", 0.07], ["2021-09-04", 0.07], ["2021-09-04", 0.07], ["2021-09-04", 0.04], ["2021-09-04", 0.04], ["2021-09-05", 0.04], ["2021-09-06", 0.04], ["2021-09-07", 0.04], ["2021-09-07", 0.04], ["2021-09-08", 0.04], ["2021-09-09", 0.035], ["2021-09-10", 0.035], ["2021-09-10", 0.035], ["2021-09-10", 0.035], ["2021-09-10", 0.045], ["2021-09-10", 0.035], ["2021-09-10", 0.03], ["2021-09-11", 0.03], ["2021-09-11", 0.03], ["2021-09-12", 0.03], ["2021-09-12", 0.03], ["2021-09-14", 0.03], ["2021-09-16", 0.03], ["2021-09-16", 0.03], ["2021-09-17", 0.03], ["2021-09-18", 0.03], ["2021-09-19", 0.03], ["2021-09-20", 0.03], ["2021-09-22", 0.03], ["2021-09-23", 0.03], ["2021-09-24", 0.03], ["2021-09-26", 0.03], ["2021-09-27", 0.03], ["2021-09-27", 0.03], ["2021-09-27", 0.03], ["2021-09-28", 0.03], ["2021-09-28", 0.025], ["2021-09-29", 0.025], ["2021-09-29", 0.02], ["2021-09-30", 0.02], ["2021-10-01", 0.02], ["2021-10-01", 0.02], ["2021-10-02", 0.02], ["2021-10-03", 0.02], ["2021-10-04", 0.02], ["2021-10-04", 0.02], ["2021-10-05", 0.02], ["2021-10-07", 0.02], ["2021-10-07", 0.02], ["2021-10-07", 0.02], ["2021-10-08", 0.02], ["2021-10-11", 0.02], ["2021-10-12", 0.02], ["2021-10-14", 0.02], ["2021-10-15", 0.02], ["2021-10-17", 0.02], ["2021-10-17", 0.01], ["2021-10-18", 0.01], ["2021-10-18", 0.01], ["2021-10-18", 0.01], ["2021-10-21", 0.01], ["2021-10-26", 0.01], ["2021-10-28", 0.01], ["2021-10-29", 0.01], ["2021-10-29", 0.01], ["2021-10-31", 0.01], ["2021-10-31", 0.01], ["2021-11-04", 0.01], ["2021-11-08", 0.01], ["2021-11-08", 0.01], ["2021-11-09", 0.01], ["2021-11-09", 0.01], ["2021-11-10", 0.01], ["2021-11-10", 0.01], ["2021-11-11", 0.01], ["2021-11-11", 0.01], ["2021-11-11", 0.01], ["2021-11-11", 0.01], ["2021-11-13", 0.01], ["2021-11-13", 0.01], ["2021-11-13", 0.01], ["2021-11-16", 0.01], ["2021-11-17", 0.01], ["2021-11-18", 0.01], ["2021-11-22", 0.01], ["2021-11-25", 0.01], ["2021-11-25", 0.01], ["2021-11-26", 0.01], ["2021-11-27", 0.01], ["2021-11-28", 0.01], ["2021-11-29", 0.01], ["2021-11-30", 0.01], ["2021-12-01", 0.01], ["2021-12-01", 0.01], ["2021-12-01", 0.01], ["2021-12-01", 0.01], ["2021-12-01", 0.01], ["2021-12-02", 0.01], ["2021-12-03", 0.01], ["2021-12-04", 0.01], ["2021-12-05", 0.01], ["2021-12-06", 0.01], ["2021-12-06", 0.01], ["2021-12-07", 0.01], ["2021-12-08", 0.01], ["2021-12-08", 0.01], ["2021-12-08", 0.01], ["2021-12-09", 0.01], ["2021-12-09", 0.01], ["2021-12-10", 0.01], ["2021-12-10", 0.01], ["2021-12-11", 0.005], ["2021-12-12", 0.005], ["2021-12-13", 0.0], ["2021-12-13", 0.0], ["2021-12-15", 0.0], ["2021-12-16", 0.0], ["2021-12-16", 0.0], ["2021-12-17", 0.0], ["2021-12-17", 0.0], ["2021-12-18", 0.0], ["2021-12-19", 0.0], ["2021-12-19", 0.0], ["2021-12-20", 0.0], ["2021-12-21", 0.0], ["2021-12-21", 0.0], ["2021-12-22", 0.0], ["2021-12-22", 0.0], ["2021-12-22", 0.0], ["2021-12-24", 0.0], ["2021-12-24", 0.0], ["2021-12-24", 0.0], ["2021-12-26", 0.0], ["2021-12-26", 0.0], ["2021-12-29", 0.0], ["2021-12-29", 0.0], ["2021-12-29", 0.0], ["2021-12-30", 0.0], ["2021-12-30", 0.0], ["2021-12-31", 0.0], ["2022-01-01", 0.0]] | ["https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/12/16/fact-sheet-the-biden-%e2%81%a0harris-administration-trucking-action-plan-to-strengthen-americas-trucking-workforce/", "https://www.fleetowner.com/news/economics/article/21170301/ata-truck-tonnage-is-flattening-remains-above-2020-levels", "https://www.ccjdigital.com/business/article/15114958/ata-truck-tonnage-up-for-first-time-since-march", "https://www.ccjdigital.com/economic-trends/article/15066615/june-truck-tonnage-index-slides-for-second-consecutive-month", "https://data.bts.gov/Research-and-Statistics/Truck-Tonnage-Index-Seasonally-Adjusted/fdsx-2s48", "https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/29/economy/truck-driver-shortage-pay-hikes/index.html", "https://www.yardeni.com/pub/atatruck.pdf", "https://www.trucking.org/news-insights/ata-truck-tonnage-index-increased-24-september", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-covid-19-case-counts-have-doubled-in-recent-weeks-11626198501", "https://www.truckinginfo.com/10132428/ftr-2021-freight-volume-rates-look-strong-but-risks-remain", "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ata-truck-tonnage-index-decreased-1-5-in-june-301337664.html", "https://theloadstar.com/us-trucking-industry-could-struggle-with-new-covid-vaccination-requirements/", "https://www.ccjdigital.com/economic-trends/indicators/article/15066174/truck-tonnage-dipped-for-second-consecutive-month-while-still-strong-yearoveryear", "https://github.com/jmflom/Superforecasting/tree/main/Truck%20Tonnage", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TRUCKD11", "https://www.trucknews.com/business-management/u-s-truck-tonnage-shrinks-in-april-but-outlook-is-strong/1003151179/", "https://www.truckinginfo.com/10147672/supply-chain-driver-shortage-issues-affect-truck-tonnage", "https://www.truckinginfo.com/10156718/ata-truck-tonnage-index-increased-in-october", "https://www.freightwaves.com/news/in-the-eye-of-the-congestion-storm-qa-with-port-of-las-gene-seroka", "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ata-truck-tonnage-index-increased-2-4-in-september-301403771.html", "https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/truck-tonnage-index.asp", "https://www.trucking.org/news-insights/latest-freight-forecast-projects-256-increase-tonnage-2030", "https://github.com/jmflom/Superforecasting/blob/main/Truck%20Tonnage/truck_tonnage.py", "https://data.bts.gov/Research-and-Statistics/Truck-Tonnage-Seasonally-Adjusted-Index-/6hvx-3geb", "https://www.logisticsmgmt.com/article/truck_tonnage_sees_july_decreases_reports_ata"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-02-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2130 |
<p>In August 2021, KHDA announced that “[f]rom October 3rd 2021, all teaching and learning at Dubai private schools will be face-to-face only. After this date, students who wish to continue with distance learning must provide a medical certificate issued by Dubai Health Authority. Class groups or grade/year levels may temporarily switch to distance learning if positive cases of Covid-19 are detected” (<a href="https://www.khda.gov.ae/en/safetyatschools" target="_blank">KHDA</a>). An announcement about a temporary change would count.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-02-01 | Before 1 February 2022, will the Knowledge and Human Development Authority (KHDA) announce that all teaching and learning at Dubai private schools will cease to be face-to-face only? | 2021-09-24 | [["2021-09-24", 1.0], ["2021-09-24", 0.5], ["2021-09-24", 0.0], ["2021-09-24", 0.05], ["2021-09-24", 0.0], ["2021-09-24", 0.0], ["2021-09-24", 0.0], ["2021-09-25", 0.0], ["2021-09-25", 0.005], ["2021-09-25", 0.01], ["2021-09-25", 0.005], ["2021-09-25", 0.0], ["2021-09-25", 0.0], ["2021-09-26", 0.0], ["2021-09-26", 0.0], ["2021-09-26", 0.0], ["2021-09-26", 0.0], ["2021-09-26", 0.0], ["2021-09-26", 0.0], ["2021-09-27", 0.0], ["2021-09-27", 0.005], ["2021-09-27", 0.01], ["2021-09-27", 0.01], ["2021-09-27", 0.01], ["2021-09-28", 0.01], ["2021-09-28", 0.01], ["2021-09-28", 0.01], ["2021-09-29", 0.06], ["2021-09-29", 0.015], ["2021-09-29", 0.015], ["2021-09-29", 0.05], ["2021-09-29", 0.09], ["2021-09-29", 0.095], ["2021-09-29", 0.075], ["2021-09-30", 0.05], ["2021-09-30", 0.05], ["2021-09-30", 0.05], ["2021-09-30", 0.055], ["2021-09-30", 0.055], ["2021-10-06", 0.055], ["2021-10-06", 0.07], ["2021-10-08", 0.085], ["2021-10-08", 0.09], ["2021-10-09", 0.09], ["2021-10-10", 0.09], ["2021-10-11", 0.09], ["2021-10-15", 0.09], ["2021-10-22", 0.08], ["2021-10-22", 0.06], ["2021-10-24", 0.055], ["2021-10-24", 0.05], ["2021-10-26", 0.045], ["2021-10-27", 0.045], ["2021-10-27", 0.045], ["2021-10-29", 0.025], ["2021-11-04", 0.02], ["2021-11-08", 0.01], ["2021-11-10", 0.01], ["2021-11-15", 0.01], ["2021-11-15", 0.01], ["2021-11-18", 0.01], ["2021-11-22", 0.01], ["2021-11-22", 0.01], ["2021-11-24", 0.01], ["2021-11-29", 0.01], ["2021-11-30", 0.01], ["2021-11-30", 0.01], ["2021-12-05", 0.01], ["2021-12-06", 0.01], ["2021-12-07", 0.01], ["2021-12-07", 0.01], ["2021-12-09", 0.01], ["2021-12-16", 0.01], ["2021-12-17", 0.01], ["2021-12-18", 0.01], ["2021-12-20", 0.01], ["2021-12-20", 0.01], ["2021-12-20", 0.01], ["2021-12-21", 0.01], ["2021-12-22", 0.01], ["2021-12-23", 0.01], ["2021-12-23", 0.01], ["2021-12-28", 0.01], ["2021-12-29", 0.01], ["2021-12-30", 0.01], ["2022-01-01", 0.01], ["2022-01-02", 0.01], ["2022-01-02", 0.01], ["2022-01-02", 0.01], ["2022-01-02", 0.01], ["2022-01-03", 0.01], ["2022-01-03", 0.01], ["2022-01-04", 0.01], ["2022-01-04", 0.01], ["2022-01-04", 0.01], ["2022-01-04", 0.01], ["2022-01-06", 0.01], ["2022-01-06", 0.01], ["2022-01-06", 0.01], ["2022-01-07", 0.01], ["2022-01-08", 0.01], ["2022-01-08", 0.01], ["2022-01-10", 0.01], ["2022-01-14", 0.01], ["2022-01-14", 0.01], ["2022-01-15", 0.01], ["2022-01-18", 0.005], ["2022-01-19", 0.005], ["2022-01-19", 0.005], ["2022-01-22", 0.005], ["2022-01-24", 0.0], ["2022-01-25", 0.0], ["2022-01-25", 0.0], ["2022-01-25", 0.01], ["2022-01-25", 0.0], ["2022-01-26", 0.0], ["2022-01-27", 0.005], ["2022-01-27", 0.0], ["2022-01-27", 0.0], ["2022-01-27", 0.0], ["2022-01-28", 0.0], ["2022-01-29", 0.0], ["2022-01-29", 0.0], ["2022-01-30", 0.0], ["2022-01-31", 0.0], ["2022-02-01", 0.0]] | ["https://gulfnews.com/living-in-uae/education/school-reopening-2022-distance-learning-or-face-to-face-education-1.1640775587028", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1337040", "https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/vaccination-rollout-and-access/", "https://www.khaleejtimes.com/coronavirus-pandemic/covid-19-in-uae-dubai-schools-to-reopen-canteens", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2130-before-1-february-2022-will-the-knowledge-and-human-development-authority-khda-announce-that-all-teaching-and-learning-at-dubai-private-schools-will-cease-to-be-face-to-face-only", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1336878", "https://covid19.ca.gov/state-dashboard/#postvax-status", "https://www.timeoutdubai.com/news/473432-expo-2020-dubai-covid-rules", "https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/united-arab-emirates/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1336879", "https://gulfnews.com/uae/education/covid-19-dubai-private-schools-can-switch-to-distance-learning-for-two-days-1.84774034", "https://www.khaleejtimes.com/news/education/dubai-schools-ask-students-returning-from-abroad-to-stick-to-covid-rules", "https://covid19.ncema.gov.ae/en"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-03-30 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2492 |
<p>Mortgage rates in the US have risen considerably in 2022 (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/20/mortgage-demand-drops-to-lowest-level-in-22-years.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/economy/articles/2022-07-19/new-construction-falls-in-june-as-higher-prices-mortgage-rates-hit-housing-market" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>). The outcome will be determined using Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate mortgage average data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (<a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US" target="_blank">FRED</a>). For the week ending 21 July 2022, the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the US was 5.54%.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. 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255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-03-30 | Before 31 March 2023, will the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the US fall below 4.55%? | 2022-07-22 | [["2022-07-22", 0.0], ["2022-07-22", 0.0], ["2022-07-22", 0.1], ["2022-07-22", 0.05], ["2022-07-22", 0.0625], ["2022-07-22", 0.078], ["2022-07-22", 0.07333333333333333], ["2022-07-22", 0.07285714285714286], ["2022-07-23", 0.1275], ["2022-07-23", 0.11333333333333333], ["2022-07-23", 0.117], ["2022-07-23", 0.112], ["2022-07-23", 0.142], ["2022-07-23", 0.15], ["2022-07-23", 0.149], ["2022-07-24", 0.139], ["2022-07-24", 0.133], ["2022-07-24", 0.119], ["2022-07-24", 0.109], ["2022-07-24", 0.109], ["2022-07-24", 0.202], ["2022-07-24", 0.203], ["2022-07-24", 0.274], ["2022-07-24", 0.206], ["2022-07-24", 0.182], ["2022-07-24", 0.244], ["2022-07-25", 0.269], ["2022-07-25", 0.315], ["2022-07-25", 0.314], ["2022-07-25", 0.314], ["2022-07-25", 0.314], ["2022-07-25", 0.33090909090909093], ["2022-07-26", 0.24909090909090909], ["2022-07-26", 0.27], ["2022-07-26", 0.27166666666666667], ["2022-07-27", 0.2875], ["2022-07-27", 0.36], ["2022-07-27", 0.3625], ["2022-07-27", 0.36333333333333334], ["2022-07-27", 0.3507692307692308], ["2022-07-27", 0.3376923076923077], ["2022-07-28", 0.34923076923076923], ["2022-07-28", 0.34214285714285714], ["2022-07-29", 0.3221428571428571], ["2022-07-29", 0.32571428571428573], ["2022-07-29", 0.31642857142857145], ["2022-08-02", 0.35928571428571426], ["2022-08-02", 0.36214285714285716], ["2022-08-02", 0.36], ["2022-08-03", 0.37], ["2022-08-04", 0.372], ["2022-08-04", 0.38133333333333336], ["2022-08-04", 0.38533333333333336], ["2022-08-05", 0.39866666666666667], ["2022-08-05", 0.39866666666666667], ["2022-08-05", 0.432], ["2022-08-06", 0.4186666666666667], ["2022-08-09", 0.41125], ["2022-08-10", 0.415625], ["2022-08-10", 0.409375], ["2022-08-11", 0.41875], ["2022-08-11", 0.428125], ["2022-08-16", 0.431875], ["2022-08-16", 0.431875], ["2022-08-17", 0.399375], ["2022-08-19", 0.39375], ["2022-08-20", 0.4156], ["2022-08-21", 0.4394], ["2022-08-22", 0.4188], ["2022-08-22", 0.4219], ["2022-08-23", 0.4324], ["2022-08-24", 0.4329], ["2022-08-25", 0.4318], ["2022-08-26", 0.4041], ["2022-08-26", 0.3853], ["2022-08-28", 0.3847], ["2022-08-29", 0.3776], ["2022-08-31", 0.3771], ["2022-08-31", 0.3712], ["2022-09-01", 0.3706], ["2022-09-01", 0.3706], ["2022-09-02", 0.3682], ["2022-09-04", 0.3561], ["2022-09-05", 0.3567], ["2022-09-05", 0.3533], ["2022-09-05", 0.3644], ["2022-09-08", 0.3672], ["2022-09-08", 0.3661], ["2022-09-09", 0.3378], ["2022-09-09", 0.3356], ["2022-09-09", 0.3228], ["2022-09-09", 0.3172], ["2022-09-10", 0.3144], ["2022-09-10", 0.2839], ["2022-09-10", 0.2817], ["2022-09-11", 0.3132], ["2022-09-12", 0.3137], ["2022-09-13", 0.3111], ["2022-09-13", 0.3], ["2022-09-13", 0.2942], ["2022-09-13", 0.2937], ["2022-09-14", 0.2753], ["2022-09-14", 0.2437], ["2022-09-15", 0.2411], ["2022-09-15", 0.24], ["2022-09-15", 0.24], ["2022-09-15", 0.2374], ["2022-09-15", 0.22], ["2022-09-15", 0.2195], ["2022-09-16", 0.1947], ["2022-09-16", 0.1942], ["2022-09-16", 0.1921], ["2022-09-17", 0.1821], ["2022-09-18", 0.1795], ["2022-09-18", 0.1768], ["2022-09-19", 0.1763], ["2022-09-20", 0.1716], ["2022-09-20", 0.1658], ["2022-09-20", 0.1684], ["2022-09-21", 0.1468], ["2022-09-21", 0.1447], ["2022-09-21", 0.1447], ["2022-09-21", 0.1637], ["2022-09-22", 0.1611], ["2022-09-22", 0.1579], ["2022-09-24", 0.1526], ["2022-09-28", 0.1495], ["2022-09-28", 0.1453], ["2022-09-29", 0.1474], ["2022-09-30", 0.165], ["2022-10-02", 0.1635], ["2022-10-02", 0.165], ["2022-10-02", 0.121], ["2022-10-03", 0.119], ["2022-10-03", 0.1195], ["2022-10-03", 0.1145], ["2022-10-03", 0.112], ["2022-10-04", 0.114], ["2022-10-04", 0.1195], ["2022-10-07", 0.1176], ["2022-10-14", 0.1152], ["2022-10-14", 0.1148], ["2022-10-16", 0.1148], ["2022-10-17", 0.1129], ["2022-10-17", 0.1129], ["2022-10-21", 0.109], ["2022-10-23", 0.1071], ["2022-10-24", 0.1086], ["2022-10-26", 0.1127], ["2022-10-27", 0.1091], ["2022-10-28", 0.1159], ["2022-10-31", 0.1073], ["2022-11-06", 0.1036], ["2022-11-07", 0.1014], ["2022-11-10", 0.1086], ["2022-11-11", 0.1118], ["2022-11-12", 0.0964], ["2022-11-12", 0.0955], ["2022-11-15", 0.0936], ["2022-11-17", 0.0955], ["2022-11-19", 0.0964], ["2022-11-21", 0.0964], ["2022-11-22", 0.0759], ["2022-11-25", 0.0726], ["2022-11-29", 0.0748], ["2022-11-29", 0.0678], ["2022-12-02", 0.0661], ["2022-12-02", 0.0643], ["2022-12-03", 0.0639], ["2022-12-05", 0.063], ["2022-12-06", 0.063], ["2022-12-13", 0.0678], ["2022-12-13", 0.0713], ["2022-12-13", 0.0739], ["2022-12-15", 0.0726], ["2022-12-16", 0.0726], ["2022-12-17", 0.0739], ["2022-12-17", 0.073], ["2022-12-18", 0.0726], ["2022-12-21", 0.0726], ["2022-12-21", 0.0709], ["2022-12-24", 0.0704], ["2022-12-25", 0.0675], ["2022-12-25", 0.0671], ["2022-12-28", 0.065], ["2022-12-28", 0.0733], ["2022-12-28", 0.0717], ["2022-12-28", 0.0704], ["2022-12-30", 0.0704], ["2023-01-03", 0.0642], ["2023-01-04", 0.0629], ["2023-01-04", 0.0613], ["2023-01-05", 0.0608], ["2023-01-05", 0.0604], ["2023-01-09", 0.06], ["2023-01-09", 0.06], ["2023-01-10", 0.0592], ["2023-01-12", 0.0552], ["2023-01-12", 0.0548], ["2023-01-12", 0.054], ["2023-01-12", 0.054], ["2023-01-13", 0.0524], ["2023-01-16", 0.052], ["2023-01-17", 0.052], ["2023-01-17", 0.0516], ["2023-01-19", 0.0496], ["2023-01-19", 0.0496], ["2023-01-20", 0.0496], ["2023-01-20", 0.0488], ["2023-01-21", 0.0488], ["2023-01-21", 0.0496], ["2023-01-23", 0.0496], ["2023-01-24", 0.0496], ["2023-01-29", 0.0442], ["2023-01-30", 0.0458], ["2023-02-03", 0.0465], ["2023-02-03", 0.0458], ["2023-02-04", 0.0442], ["2023-02-04", 0.0442], ["2023-02-05", 0.0442], ["2023-02-05", 0.0438], ["2023-02-06", 0.0377], ["2023-02-12", 0.0373], ["2023-02-14", 0.0373], ["2023-02-14", 0.0365], ["2023-02-15", 0.0362], ["2023-02-15", 0.0327], ["2023-02-17", 0.0327], ["2023-02-18", 0.0323], ["2023-02-18", 0.0323], ["2023-02-19", 0.0323], ["2023-02-22", 0.0315], ["2023-02-22", 0.0315], ["2023-02-22", 0.0315], ["2023-02-24", 0.0304], ["2023-02-24", 0.0304], ["2023-02-27", 0.03], ["2023-02-27", 0.03], ["2023-03-02", 0.0296], ["2023-03-03", 0.0296], ["2023-03-03", 0.0296], ["2023-03-03", 0.0289], ["2023-03-04", 0.0279], ["2023-03-05", 0.0279], ["2023-03-07", 0.0246], ["2023-03-08", 0.0243], ["2023-03-08", 0.0243], ["2023-03-09", 0.0243], ["2023-03-10", 0.0243], ["2023-03-13", 0.0243], ["2023-03-14", 0.0243], ["2023-03-14", 0.0243], ["2023-03-15", 0.0239], ["2023-03-16", 0.0118], ["2023-03-18", 0.0121], ["2023-03-18", 0.005], ["2023-03-19", 0.0046], ["2023-03-20", 0.0046], ["2023-03-20", 0.0046], ["2023-03-20", 0.0043], ["2023-03-21", 0.0043], ["2023-03-22", 0.0036], ["2023-03-22", 0.0036], ["2023-03-23", 0.0036], ["2023-03-23", 0.0036], ["2023-03-23", 0.0032], ["2023-03-24", 0.0032], ["2023-03-24", 0.0018], ["2023-03-25", 0.0017], ["2023-03-26", 0.0352], ["2023-03-27", 0.0352], ["2023-03-29", 0.0352], ["2023-03-29", 0.034], ["2023-03-30", 0.034]] | ["https://www.edgeandodds.com/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-17/us-mortgage-rates-post-biggest-drop-since-1981-falling-to-6-61?sref=x7nYEkiY", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGZ1FL413065025Q", "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202209", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGZ1FL403065025Q", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OBMMIC30YFLVLE80FGE740", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/16/homebuyers-are-backing-out-of-more-deals-as-recession-fears-linger.html", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGZ1FL402050023Q", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGZ1FL404004025A", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGZ1FR403061923Q", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/tags/series?t=freddie%20mac", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS30", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T30YIEM", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII10", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OBMMIC30YFLVGT80FGE740", "https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/2797", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGZ1FR403063623Q", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGZ1FA405013123Q", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?graph_id=281291#0", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGZ1FA403063623Q", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIFR", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGZ1FA405080023Q", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OBMMIFHA30YF", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGZ1FA403065025A", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIEM"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |