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2022-04-10 | Will Marine Le Pen place either first or second in the 2022 French presidential election? | binary | <p>The French presidential election is scheduled for 10 April 2022 (<a href="https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2021/12/07/french-presidential-election-who-s-who-in-the-race-to-replace-macron" target="_blank">Euronews</a>). Results of a runoff would be immaterial.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-04-11 | gjopen | ["https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1416331", "https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/france/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-Luc_M%C3%A9lenchon#Political_positions", "https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/macron-won-but-the-french-polls-were-way-off/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_French_presidential_election#Opinion_polls", "https://www.economist.com/interactive/france-2022", "https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220329-french-far-right-leader-le-pen-closing-gap-on-macron-polls", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election#Fillon_affair_(Penelopegate", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election#/media/File:%C3%89lection_pr%C3%A9sidentielle_fran%C3%A7aise_de_2017_T1_carte_d%C3%A9partements_&_r%C3%A9gions.svg", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89ric_Zemmour#cite_note-far-right-3", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-Luc_M%C3%A9lenchon#Departure_from_the_Socialists_and_foundation_of_the_Left_Party_(2008%E2%80%932012", "https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/how-we-forecast-the-french-election/21807484", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/frances-macron-launches-bid-second-term-president-2022-03-03/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89ric_Zemmour", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_French_presidential_election", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/france-nail-biting-election-macrons-091337207.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election#Opinion_polls", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_protests#Fuel_prices"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2022-03-09 | 1.0 | [["2022-03-15", 0.0], ["2022-03-15", 0.235], ["2022-03-15", 0.0], ["2022-03-15", 0.15], ["2022-03-15", 0.3], ["2022-03-15", 0.3], ["2022-03-15", 0.3], ["2022-03-15", 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["2022-04-08", 0.99], ["2022-04-08", 0.99], ["2022-04-08", 0.99], ["2022-04-08", 0.99], ["2022-04-08", 0.99], ["2022-04-08", 0.99], ["2022-04-08", 0.99], ["2022-04-08", 0.99], ["2022-04-08", 0.99], ["2022-04-08", 0.99], ["2022-04-08", 0.99], ["2022-04-08", 0.99], ["2022-04-08", 0.99], ["2022-04-08", 0.99], ["2022-04-08", 0.99], ["2022-04-09", 0.99], ["2022-04-09", 0.99], ["2022-04-09", 0.99], ["2022-04-09", 0.99], ["2022-04-09", 0.99], ["2022-04-09", 0.99], ["2022-04-09", 0.99], ["2022-04-09", 0.99], ["2022-04-09", 0.99], ["2022-04-10", 0.99], ["2022-04-10", 0.99]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2297 | True |
2022-02-13 | Before 13 February 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation in Iran or at sea between the national military or law enforcement forces of Iran and those of either Israel or a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member state? | binary |
<p>Regional tensions involving Iran continue (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/rocket-sirens-sound-northern-israel-golan-heights-israeli-miltary-says-2021-08-06/" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/iran-israel-tanker-attack/2021/08/01/d48bae2e-f2bf-11eb-a636-18cac59a98dc_story.html" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-58083671" target="_blank">BBC</a>). The GCC is a group of six Arab countries bordering the Persian Gulf (<a href="https://www.gcc-sg.org/en-us/AboutGCC/MemberStates/pages/Home.aspx" target="_blank">GCC</a>). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality for the national military or law enforcement forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-02-14 | gjopen | ["https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/12/israel-bombed-a-dozen-ships-carrying-iranian-oil-or-weapons-report", "https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-689730", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Luis_Carrero_Blanco", "https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-israel-iran-iran-nuclear-united-arab-emirates-9835ba4644959e9cb4584ca999f49002", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/23/israel-signals-readiness-to-escalate-iran-confrontation", "https://www.jns.org/opinion/israels-blame-my-predecessor-iran-strategy-revealed/", "https://gcaptain.com/houthis-seize-uae-flagged-cargo-ship-off-yemen/?subscriber=true&goal=0_f50174ef03-2bb5bd07da-170102337&mc_cid=2bb5bd07da&mc_eid=c74873c672", "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-war-games-gulf-were-warning-israel-top-iranian-commanders-2021-12-24/", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-iranian-general-forces-in-syria-lebanon-awaiting-orders-to-destroy-israel", "https://www.algemeiner.com/2021/10/17/saudi-foreign-minister-warns-of-dangerous-iran-nuclear-acceleration/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-will-weigh-all-options-if-iran-will-not-resume-nuclear-deal-2021-10-13/", "https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/analysis-of-iaea-iran-verification-and-monitoring-report-september-2021", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/israel-pushes-better-iran-deal-153933412.html;", "https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-695222", "https://www.france24.com/en/diplomacy/20211202-iran-steps-up-uranium-enrichment-capacity-despite-talks-to-salvage-nuclear-deal", "https://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/8/418064/World/Region/Israel-blames-Iran-over-lethal-attack-on-oil-tanke.aspx", "https://jcpa.org/article/new-houthi-attacks-on-strategic-targets-in-saudi-arabia-and-yemen/", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/23/israel-signals-readiness-to-escalate-iran-confrontation;", "https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/israel/8744913/Full-scale-Middle-East-war-is-imminent-warns-Israeli-general.html", "https://archive.is/uYxjq", "https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/18/middleeast/uae-abu-dhabi-houthi-yemen-explainer-intl/index.html", "https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2020/05/israel-steps-up-military-campaign-against-irans-military-entrenchment-in-syria.php", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qasem_Soleimani", "https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/the-iran-touch-iran-is-behind-decline-in-lebanon-iraq-bennett-682230", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/iran-ship-mine-explosion/2021/04/07/c0af3e00-9777-11eb-8f0a-3384cf4fb399_story.html"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2021-08-13 | 0.0 | [["2021-08-13", 0.0], ["2021-08-13", 0.25], ["2021-08-13", 0.5], ["2021-08-13", 0.6], ["2021-08-13", 0.65], ["2021-08-13", 0.6], ["2021-08-13", 0.55], ["2021-08-13", 0.5], ["2021-08-13", 0.5], ["2021-08-13", 0.5], ["2021-08-14", 0.4], ["2021-08-14", 0.3], ["2021-08-14", 0.275], ["2021-08-14", 0.275], ["2021-08-14", 0.3], ["2021-08-14", 0.275], ["2021-08-14", 0.25], ["2021-08-14", 0.275], ["2021-08-14", 0.25], ["2021-08-14", 0.175], ["2021-08-14", 0.175], ["2021-08-14", 0.1], ["2021-08-14", 0.1], ["2021-08-14", 0.1], ["2021-08-15", 0.1], ["2021-08-15", 0.1], ["2021-08-15", 0.1], ["2021-08-15", 0.1], ["2021-08-15", 0.1], ["2021-08-15", 0.1], ["2021-08-15", 0.1], ["2021-08-15", 0.1], ["2021-08-16", 0.175], ["2021-08-16", 0.1], ["2021-08-17", 0.1], ["2021-08-17", 0.1], ["2021-08-17", 0.1], ["2021-08-17", 0.19], ["2021-08-17", 0.145], ["2021-08-17", 0.22], ["2021-08-17", 0.22], ["2021-08-18", 0.21], ["2021-08-18", 0.25], ["2021-08-18", 0.25], ["2021-08-18", 0.25], ["2021-08-19", 0.23], ["2021-08-19", 0.2], ["2021-08-19", 0.19], ["2021-08-20", 0.14], ["2021-08-20", 0.14], ["2021-08-20", 0.165], ["2021-08-20", 0.165], ["2021-08-21", 0.165], ["2021-08-21", 0.165], ["2021-08-22", 0.12], ["2021-08-23", 0.14], ["2021-08-23", 0.1], ["2021-08-23", 0.1], ["2021-08-24", 0.095], ["2021-08-24", 0.095], ["2021-08-25", 0.1], ["2021-08-25", 0.095], ["2021-08-25", 0.1], ["2021-08-25", 0.1], ["2021-08-25", 0.12], ["2021-08-27", 0.12], ["2021-08-27", 0.1], ["2021-08-28", 0.1], ["2021-08-30", 0.095], ["2021-09-01", 0.09], ["2021-09-01", 0.09], ["2021-09-01", 0.09], ["2021-09-02", 0.08], ["2021-09-03", 0.08], ["2021-09-03", 0.08], ["2021-09-04", 0.08], ["2021-09-05", 0.08], ["2021-09-07", 0.08], ["2021-09-08", 0.08], ["2021-09-11", 0.08], ["2021-09-11", 0.08], ["2021-09-11", 0.08], ["2021-09-11", 0.08], ["2021-09-11", 0.08], ["2021-09-13", 0.08], ["2021-09-13", 0.08], ["2021-09-14", 0.08], ["2021-09-14", 0.08], ["2021-09-15", 0.08], ["2021-09-15", 0.08], ["2021-09-18", 0.08], ["2021-09-20", 0.085], ["2021-09-20", 0.085], ["2021-09-21", 0.09], ["2021-09-21", 0.09], ["2021-09-22", 0.09], ["2021-09-22", 0.09], ["2021-09-25", 0.09], ["2021-09-26", 0.09], ["2021-09-26", 0.09], ["2021-09-27", 0.09], ["2021-09-27", 0.09], ["2021-09-28", 0.09], ["2021-09-29", 0.09], ["2021-09-30", 0.09], ["2021-10-03", 0.085], ["2021-10-04", 0.09], ["2021-10-04", 0.08], ["2021-10-05", 0.08], ["2021-10-11", 0.08], ["2021-10-11", 0.08], ["2021-10-12", 0.08], ["2021-10-13", 0.08], ["2021-10-14", 0.08], ["2021-10-17", 0.08], ["2021-10-17", 0.08], ["2021-10-18", 0.09], ["2021-10-24", 0.08], ["2021-10-25", 0.08], ["2021-10-29", 0.08], ["2021-10-29", 0.09], ["2021-10-30", 0.09], ["2021-11-04", 0.085], ["2021-11-04", 0.085], ["2021-11-05", 0.085], ["2021-11-05", 0.085], ["2021-11-07", 0.085], ["2021-11-08", 0.085], ["2021-11-09", 0.075], ["2021-11-10", 0.065], ["2021-11-10", 0.065], ["2021-11-10", 0.065], ["2021-11-13", 0.06], ["2021-11-17", 0.06], ["2021-11-22", 0.05], ["2021-11-22", 0.05], ["2021-11-23", 0.05], ["2021-11-25", 0.05], ["2021-11-26", 0.05], ["2021-11-27", 0.05], ["2021-11-27", 0.05], ["2021-11-28", 0.05], ["2021-11-28", 0.05], ["2021-11-29", 0.05], ["2021-11-30", 0.05], ["2021-11-30", 0.05], ["2021-11-30", 0.05], ["2021-12-01", 0.05], ["2021-12-03", 0.05], ["2021-12-04", 0.05], ["2021-12-05", 0.05], ["2021-12-06", 0.05], ["2021-12-07", 0.05], ["2021-12-07", 0.05], ["2021-12-08", 0.05], ["2021-12-09", 0.05], ["2021-12-09", 0.05], ["2021-12-09", 0.05], ["2021-12-10", 0.05], ["2021-12-10", 0.05], ["2021-12-13", 0.05], ["2021-12-13", 0.05], ["2021-12-13", 0.05], ["2021-12-14", 0.05], ["2021-12-16", 0.05], ["2021-12-16", 0.05], ["2021-12-17", 0.05], ["2021-12-17", 0.05], ["2021-12-19", 0.045], ["2021-12-20", 0.045], ["2021-12-20", 0.04], ["2021-12-21", 0.04], ["2021-12-21", 0.04], ["2021-12-22", 0.035], ["2021-12-23", 0.03], ["2021-12-25", 0.03], ["2021-12-25", 0.03], ["2021-12-25", 0.03], ["2021-12-28", 0.03], ["2021-12-28", 0.03], ["2021-12-29", 0.03], ["2021-12-29", 0.03], ["2021-12-29", 0.03], ["2021-12-29", 0.03], ["2021-12-31", 0.03], ["2022-01-01", 0.03], ["2022-01-01", 0.03], ["2022-01-02", 0.03], ["2022-01-02", 0.03], ["2022-01-02", 0.03], ["2022-01-03", 0.03], ["2022-01-03", 0.03], ["2022-01-04", 0.03], ["2022-01-04", 0.03], ["2022-01-04", 0.03], ["2022-01-05", 0.025], ["2022-01-05", 0.025], ["2022-01-05", 0.025], ["2022-01-05", 0.025], ["2022-01-06", 0.025], ["2022-01-06", 0.025], ["2022-01-06", 0.03], ["2022-01-06", 0.03], ["2022-01-07", 0.03], ["2022-01-07", 0.03], ["2022-01-07", 0.025], ["2022-01-07", 0.02], ["2022-01-07", 0.025], ["2022-01-07", 0.02], ["2022-01-07", 0.02], ["2022-01-07", 0.02], ["2022-01-07", 0.02], ["2022-01-08", 0.02], ["2022-01-09", 0.015], ["2022-01-09", 0.015], ["2022-01-09", 0.01], ["2022-01-09", 0.01], ["2022-01-10", 0.01], ["2022-01-11", 0.01], ["2022-01-11", 0.01], ["2022-01-11", 0.01], ["2022-01-11", 0.01], ["2022-01-11", 0.01], ["2022-01-11", 0.01], ["2022-01-12", 0.01], ["2022-01-13", 0.01], ["2022-01-13", 0.01], ["2022-01-13", 0.01], ["2022-01-13", 0.01], ["2022-01-14", 0.01], ["2022-01-14", 0.01], ["2022-01-14", 0.01], ["2022-01-14", 0.01], ["2022-01-15", 0.01], ["2022-01-16", 0.01], ["2022-01-17", 0.01], ["2022-01-17", 0.01], ["2022-01-17", 0.01], ["2022-01-17", 0.01], ["2022-01-17", 0.01], ["2022-01-18", 0.01], ["2022-01-18", 0.01], ["2022-01-18", 0.01], ["2022-01-18", 0.01], ["2022-01-18", 0.01], ["2022-01-19", 0.01], ["2022-01-19", 0.01], ["2022-01-20", 0.01], ["2022-01-20", 0.01], ["2022-01-20", 0.01], ["2022-01-21", 0.01], ["2022-01-21", 0.01], ["2022-01-22", 0.01], ["2022-01-23", 0.01], ["2022-01-23", 0.01], ["2022-01-23", 0.01], ["2022-01-24", 0.01], ["2022-01-24", 0.01], ["2022-01-24", 0.01], ["2022-01-25", 0.01], ["2022-01-25", 0.01], ["2022-01-25", 0.01], ["2022-01-26", 0.01], ["2022-01-26", 0.01], ["2022-01-27", 0.01], ["2022-01-27", 0.01], ["2022-01-27", 0.005], ["2022-01-27", 0.0], ["2022-01-27", 0.0], ["2022-01-27", 0.0], ["2022-01-28", 0.0], ["2022-01-28", 0.0], ["2022-01-30", 0.0], ["2022-01-30", 0.0], ["2022-02-01", 0.0], ["2022-02-01", 0.0], ["2022-02-01", 0.0], ["2022-02-01", 0.0], ["2022-02-02", 0.0], ["2022-02-02", 0.0], ["2022-02-02", 0.0], ["2022-02-03", 0.0], ["2022-02-04", 0.0], ["2022-02-06", 0.0], ["2022-02-06", 0.0], ["2022-02-06", 0.0], ["2022-02-06", 0.0], ["2022-02-06", 0.0], ["2022-02-06", 0.0], ["2022-02-06", 0.0], ["2022-02-06", 0.0], ["2022-02-06", 0.0], ["2022-02-07", 0.0], ["2022-02-07", 0.0], ["2022-02-07", 0.0], ["2022-02-07", 0.0], ["2022-02-07", 0.0], ["2022-02-07", 0.0], ["2022-02-07", 0.0], ["2022-02-07", 0.0], ["2022-02-08", 0.0], ["2022-02-08", 0.0], ["2022-02-08", 0.0], ["2022-02-08", 0.0], ["2022-02-09", 0.0], ["2022-02-09", 0.0], ["2022-02-09", 0.0], ["2022-02-10", 0.0], ["2022-02-11", 0.0], ["2022-02-12", 0.0], ["2022-02-12", 0.0], ["2022-02-12", 0.0], ["2022-02-12", 0.0], ["2022-02-13", 0.0], ["2022-02-13", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2097 | True |
2022-06-23 | In New York State Rifle & Pistol Association, Inc. v. Bruen, will the Supreme Court rule that New York State's denial of applications for concealed-carry licenses for self-defense violated the Second Amendment? | binary |
<p>Two New York State citizens applied for firearm concealed-carry licenses for self-defense, but were denied because they failed to show a "proper cause" for obtaining the license (<a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2021/20-843" target="_blank">Oyez</a>). Two men sued, claiming that the denial of licenses violated the Second Amendment (<a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/new-york-state-rifle-pistol-association-inc-v-bruen/" target="_blank">SCOTUSblog</a>). They lost at the trial and appellate courts, and appealed to the US Supreme Court (<a href="https://casetext.com/case/ny-state-rifle-pistol-assn-v-beach" target="_blank">Casetext</a>, <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/20/20-843/164031/20201217110211298_2020-12-17%20NRA-Corlett%20Cert%20Petition%20FINAL.pdf" target="_blank">Supreme Court</a>). A ruling in favor of any petitioner (New York State Rifle & Pistol Association Inc., Robert Nash, or Brandon Koch) would count. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2021 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." Oral arguments are scheduled for 3 November 2021 (<a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_calendars/MonthlyArgumentCalNovember2021.pdf" target="_blank">Supreme Court - November Argument Calendar</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-06-23 | gjopen | ["https://www.scotusblog.com/2021/10/in-major-second-amendment-case-court-will-review-limits-on-carrying-a-concealed-gun-in-public/", "https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2021-11-01/supreme-court-gun-rights-gun-control-concealed-carry-2nd-amendment", "https://news.yahoo.com/supreme-court-appears-lean-toward-195941669.html", "https://www.npr.org/2021/04/26/990846329/supreme-court-to-take-up-first-major-gun-rights-case-in-more-than-a-decade", "https://gunlawsuits.org/gun-laws/new-york/concealed-carry/", "https://www.mass.gov/news/ag-healey-urges-supreme-court-to-uphold-the-right-of-state-and-local-governments-to-regulate-the-public-carry-of-firearms", "https://www.scotusblog.com/2021/11/majority-of-court-appears-dubious-of-new-york-gun-control-law-but-justices-mull-narrow-ruling/", "https://www.vox.com/22745312/supreme-court-guns-second-amendment-nyc-bruen", "https://reedquest.org/articles/scotusgunrights", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/are-us-supreme-court-conservatives-aiming-expand-gun-rights-2021-04-27/", "https://www.businessinsider.com/supreme-court-term-5-cases-to-watch-abortion-guns-religion-2021-9", "https://www.theguardian.com/law/2021/apr/26/us-supreme-court-right-to-carry-concealed-guns-outside", "https://nycitylens.com/wp-content/guns/new-york-city-and-its-gun-laws-how-strict-are-they/index.html", "https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/04/supreme-court-second-amendment-concealed-carry.html", "https://www1.nyc.gov/office-of-the-mayor/news/636-21/new-york-city-files-amicus-brief-major-second-amendment-gun-case-before-u-s-supreme-court", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hVRtXrg2g74", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/this-conservative-supreme-court-is-about-to-totally-reshape-our-legal-and-political-landscape/ar-AAP5jxb", "https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/national-international/supreme-court-rules-against-new-yorks-gun-permit-law/3746400/", "https://www.vox.com/22675986/supreme-court-term-roe-wade-gun-rights-anti-discrimination-laws-october-2021", "https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-supreme-court-probably-doesnt-care-what-most-americans-think-about-abortion-or-gun-rights/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/03/us/supreme-court-guns-second-amendment.html", "https://www.vox.com/2021/11/3/22761240/supreme-court-second-amendment-rifle-bruen-heller-amy-coney-barrett", "https://giffords.org/lawcenter/gun-laws/second-amendment/the-supreme-court-the-second-amendment/", "https://www.nationalreview.com/2021/10/new-supreme-court-term-set-to-be-one-for-the-ages/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2021-09-30 | 1.0 | [["2021-09-30", 1.0], ["2021-09-30", 0.75], ["2021-09-30", 1.0], ["2021-09-30", 0.75], ["2021-09-30", 0.55], ["2021-09-30", 0.775], ["2021-09-30", 0.72], ["2021-10-01", 0.86], ["2021-10-01", 0.72], ["2021-10-01", 0.735], ["2021-10-01", 0.72], ["2021-10-01", 0.71], ["2021-10-01", 0.72], ["2021-10-01", 0.735], ["2021-10-01", 0.735], ["2021-10-01", 0.735], ["2021-10-01", 0.75], ["2021-10-02", 0.775], ["2021-10-02", 0.8], ["2021-10-02", 0.85], ["2021-10-02", 0.86], ["2021-10-02", 0.85], ["2021-10-02", 0.86], ["2021-10-03", 0.85], ["2021-10-03", 0.825], ["2021-10-03", 0.825], ["2021-10-04", 0.875], ["2021-10-04", 0.89], ["2021-10-04", 0.89], ["2021-10-04", 0.88], ["2021-10-05", 0.9], ["2021-10-06", 0.875], ["2021-10-07", 0.9], ["2021-10-07", 0.9], ["2021-10-08", 0.9], ["2021-10-10", 0.9], ["2021-10-12", 0.9], ["2021-10-12", 0.9], ["2021-10-13", 0.81], ["2021-10-13", 0.765], ["2021-10-13", 0.745], ["2021-10-13", 0.745], ["2021-10-13", 0.735], ["2021-10-13", 0.73], ["2021-10-14", 0.725], ["2021-10-15", 0.69], ["2021-10-15", 0.675], ["2021-10-15", 0.675], ["2021-10-16", 0.67], ["2021-10-17", 0.665], ["2021-10-18", 0.665], ["2021-10-25", 0.665], ["2021-10-28", 0.665], ["2021-10-28", 0.66], ["2021-11-01", 0.66], ["2021-11-02", 0.66], ["2021-11-03", 0.67], ["2021-11-04", 0.72], ["2021-11-07", 0.72], ["2021-11-08", 0.77], ["2021-11-09", 0.8], ["2021-11-12", 0.8], ["2021-11-18", 0.8], ["2021-11-23", 0.8], ["2021-11-23", 0.8], ["2021-11-26", 0.8], ["2021-11-28", 0.76], ["2021-11-29", 0.76], ["2021-12-02", 0.76], ["2021-12-03", 0.76], ["2021-12-06", 0.775], ["2021-12-10", 0.775], ["2021-12-17", 0.78], ["2021-12-19", 0.78], ["2021-12-22", 0.8], ["2021-12-23", 0.8], ["2021-12-23", 0.8], ["2021-12-23", 0.8], ["2021-12-28", 0.8], ["2021-12-29", 0.825], ["2021-12-29", 0.85], ["2021-12-29", 0.825], ["2021-12-30", 0.8], ["2022-01-01", 0.8], ["2022-01-02", 0.8], ["2022-01-03", 0.78], ["2022-01-05", 0.78], ["2022-01-07", 0.78], ["2022-01-09", 0.78], ["2022-01-10", 0.805], ["2022-01-11", 0.81], ["2022-01-11", 0.81], ["2022-01-12", 0.81], ["2022-01-14", 0.82], ["2022-01-15", 0.82], ["2022-01-18", 0.82], ["2022-01-20", 0.82], ["2022-01-20", 0.8], ["2022-01-21", 0.8], ["2022-01-25", 0.8], ["2022-01-27", 0.8], ["2022-01-29", 0.8], ["2022-02-03", 0.8], ["2022-02-04", 0.8], ["2022-02-06", 0.76], ["2022-02-07", 0.76], ["2022-02-09", 0.76], ["2022-02-10", 0.76], ["2022-02-11", 0.76], ["2022-02-11", 0.76], ["2022-02-12", 0.76], ["2022-02-13", 0.76], ["2022-02-13", 0.76], ["2022-02-13", 0.76], ["2022-02-14", 0.76], ["2022-02-14", 0.76], ["2022-02-15", 0.76], ["2022-02-15", 0.755], ["2022-02-15", 0.78], ["2022-02-16", 0.78], ["2022-02-16", 0.78], ["2022-02-17", 0.78], ["2022-02-17", 0.78], ["2022-02-20", 0.78], ["2022-02-20", 0.78], ["2022-02-21", 0.78], ["2022-02-22", 0.78], ["2022-02-24", 0.78], ["2022-02-26", 0.78], ["2022-03-03", 0.78], ["2022-03-04", 0.78], ["2022-03-07", 0.8], ["2022-03-08", 0.8], ["2022-03-08", 0.8], ["2022-03-13", 0.8], ["2022-03-24", 0.8], ["2022-04-11", 0.8], ["2022-04-13", 0.8], ["2022-04-18", 0.8], ["2022-04-27", 0.8], ["2022-04-27", 0.8], ["2022-05-03", 0.8], ["2022-05-04", 0.8], ["2022-05-04", 0.8], ["2022-05-05", 0.8], ["2022-05-05", 0.8], ["2022-05-05", 0.8], ["2022-05-06", 0.8], ["2022-05-07", 0.8], ["2022-05-07", 0.8], ["2022-05-07", 0.8], ["2022-05-09", 0.8], ["2022-05-10", 0.8], ["2022-05-10", 0.84], ["2022-05-11", 0.84], ["2022-05-11", 0.84], ["2022-05-12", 0.84], ["2022-05-14", 0.84], ["2022-05-16", 0.84], ["2022-05-17", 0.84], ["2022-05-17", 0.84], ["2022-05-19", 0.84], ["2022-05-19", 0.84], ["2022-05-20", 0.84], ["2022-05-21", 0.85], ["2022-05-21", 0.85], ["2022-05-22", 0.85], ["2022-05-25", 0.85], ["2022-05-25", 0.86], ["2022-05-30", 0.86], ["2022-06-01", 0.86], ["2022-06-01", 0.855], ["2022-06-03", 0.855], ["2022-06-03", 0.83], ["2022-06-05", 0.83], ["2022-06-06", 0.83], ["2022-06-08", 0.83], ["2022-06-17", 0.83], ["2022-06-18", 0.84], ["2022-06-22", 0.815], ["2022-06-23", 0.815]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2140 | True |
2022-01-01 | Will a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) trade on a US exchange before 1 January 2022? | binary |
<p>While bitcoin ETFs have been authorized in other jurisdictions, earlier attempts to create one in the US have failed (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/11/bitcoin-etf-could-finally-get-approved-this-year-market-analyst.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.cp24.com/news/canadian-funds-move-forward-with-bitcoin-etfs-after-regulatory-jockeying-1.5309984" target="_blank">Canadian Press</a>, <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/nydig-files-for-bitcoin-etf-adding-to-firms-hoping-2021-is-when-sec-finally-says-yes" target="_blank">Coindesk</a>, <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/etf.asp" target="_blank">Investopedia</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.2;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 19 April 2021</span>: The question is concerned only with a bitcoin ETF, not a broader crypto ETF that may include bitcoin.</p><p style="line-height:1.2;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 27 August 2021</span>: The question is concerned with bitcoin, not bitcoin derivatives (e.g., futures).
</p><p style="line-height:1.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-01-03 | gjopen | ["https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-24/tiny-issuer-thinks-it-just-got-the-edge-in-race-for-bitcoin-etf?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business", "https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/new-sec-chairman-gives-his-first-speech-2149304/", "https://www.ft.com/content/c36013a0-65a9-4f1c-901d-314577cc5266", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-08/wall-street-could-get-four-bitcoin-futures-etfs-by-end-of-month", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQpuYUhMiYY", "https://www.coindesk.com/bloomberg-analyst-bitcoin-etf-2021", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-22/first-mideast-bitcoin-etf-aims-to-raise-more-than-200-million", "https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-some-experts-think-a-bitcoin-etf-will-be-delayed-51620853749", "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/28/sec-delays-decision-on-approving-bitcoin-etf.html", "https://cryptopotato.com/sec-could-approve-a-bitcoin-futures-etf-by-october-says-bloomberg-strategist/", "https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/news/bitcoin-etf-approval-may-take-longer-expected-sec-expresses-caution-2021-6-1030484370", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/wall-street-watchdog-keeps-bitcoin-etfs-on-ice-11626616801", "https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-bitcoin-etf-is-still-in-the-works-here-are-your-options-in-the-meantime-51618014033", "https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/05/07/sec-chairman-gary-gensler-says-more-investor-protections-are-needed-for-bitcoin-and-crypto-markets.html", "https://money.com/when-will-sec-approve-bitcoin-etf/", "https://www.coindesk.com/sec-vaneck-bitcoin-etf-2021", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-03/sec-s-gensler-signals-pathway-for-a-bitcoin-etf-with-tough-rules", "https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-etf-approved-first-north-american-bitcoin-etf-toronto-stock-exchange/", "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/19/experts-say-sec-approval-for-a-bitcoin-etf-wont-happen-any-time-soon.html", "https://www.investors.com/news/bitcoin-etfs-sec-approval-cryptocurrency-funds/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/blog/etf-approval-times-shortened-costs-slashed-sec-2019-plan/", "https://www.scmp.com/tech/policy/article/3134473/china-escalates-crackdown-bitcoin-mining-trading", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-15/bitcoin-futures-etf-said-not-to-face-sec-opposition-at-deadline?sref=PFCuwcPr&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=business&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business", "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/17/blackrock-has-started-to-dabble-in-bitcoin-says-rick-rieder.html", "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/03/what-the-sec-chairs-comments-on-crypto-mean-for-a-possible-bitcoin-etf.html"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2021-02-16 | 0.0 | [["2021-02-16", 1.0], ["2021-02-16", 0.95], ["2021-02-16", 0.9], ["2021-02-16", 0.825], ["2021-02-16", 0.75], ["2021-02-16", 0.9], ["2021-02-17", 0.75], ["2021-02-17", 0.8], ["2021-02-17", 0.85], ["2021-02-17", 0.88], ["2021-02-17", 0.84], ["2021-02-18", 0.8], ["2021-02-18", 0.8], ["2021-02-18", 0.75], ["2021-02-18", 0.8], ["2021-02-18", 0.84], ["2021-02-19", 0.8], ["2021-02-19", 0.75], ["2021-02-19", 0.8], ["2021-02-19", 0.8], ["2021-02-19", 0.8], 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2020-05-30 | Before 1 July 2020, will SpaceX launch its first crewed mission into orbit? | binary |
<p>After passing a key safety milestone in January 2020 (<a href="https://www.spacex.com/news/2020/01/19/crew-dragon-launch-escape-demonstration" target="_blank">SpaceX</a>), Elon Musk is hopeful 'Crew Dragon', SpaceX's crewed capsule, launches soon (<a href="https://www.space.com/spacex-crew-dragon-astronaut-launch-by-spring-2020.html" target="_blank">Space.com</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/11/spacex-hires-former-nasa-official-william-gerstenmaier.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>
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2023-01-01 | Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 January 2023? | binary |
<p>Two years after a deadly clash left dozens dead, tensions between China and India remain high (<a href="https://thediplomat.com/2022/06/china-india-relations-2-years-after-galwan-clash/" target="_blank">Diplomat</a>, <a href="https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/asia/2022/06/01/india-and-china-hold-new-meeting-to-defuse-border-tensions/" target="_blank">The National</a>, <a href="https://www.outlookindia.com/national/defense-minister-claims-india-will-not-cede-an-inch-of-land-to-anyone-news-204736" target="_blank">Outlook India</a>, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/23/ladakhi-nomads-along-tense-india-china-border-struggle-to-survive" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-01-01 | gjopen | ["https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/ahead-of-brics-meet-chinas-foreign-minister-meets-indian-envoy/article65556887.ece", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_China%E2%80%93India_skirmishes#cite_note-:72-44", "https://www.dailypioneer.com/2022/india/normalisation-of-ties-between-india-and-china-in-global-interest--jaishankar.html", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TKXldNsmRaw", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/09/world/asia/india-china-border.html", "https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202204/1260667.shtml", "https://theprint.in/defence/india-and-china-air-forces-hold-maiden-talks-in-ladakh-as-lac-tension-escalates-to-sky/1070592/", "https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3191996/tensions-ease-china-india-border-amid-changing-geopolitical", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020", "https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/16th-round-of-india-china-lac-talks-end-in-stalemate-413559", "https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-china-hold-consultations-ahead-of-important-communist-party-congress-in-beijing/article66002339.ece", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932022_China%E2%80%93India_skirmishes#Casualties_and_losses"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2022-06-27 | 0.0 | [["2022-06-28", 1.0], ["2022-06-28", 0.515], ["2022-06-28", 0.34833333333333333], ["2022-06-28", 0.32571428571428573], ["2022-06-29", 0.26555555555555554], ["2022-06-29", 0.146], ["2022-06-29", 0.144], ["2022-06-29", 0.142], ["2022-06-29", 0.141], ["2022-06-29", 0.123], ["2022-06-29", 0.112], ["2022-06-29", 0.108], ["2022-06-29", 0.106], ["2022-06-30", 0.114], ["2022-06-30", 0.042], ["2022-06-30", 0.04454545454545455], ["2022-06-30", 0.045454545454545456], ["2022-06-30", 0.1290909090909091], ["2022-07-01", 0.1225], ["2022-07-01", 0.12583333333333332], ["2022-07-01", 0.11615384615384615], ["2022-07-02", 0.04384615384615385], ["2022-07-02", 0.11615384615384615], ["2022-07-02", 0.11142857142857143], ["2022-07-02", 0.10571428571428572], ["2022-07-02", 0.07642857142857143], ["2022-07-02", 0.06], ["2022-07-03", 0.06266666666666666], ["2022-07-03", 0.049375], ["2022-07-03", 0.0475], ["2022-07-04", 0.031875], ["2022-07-04", 0.029411764705882353], ["2022-07-04", 0.033529411764705884], ["2022-07-05", 0.03222222222222222], ["2022-07-05", 0.03833333333333333], ["2022-07-05", 0.03611111111111111], ["2022-07-05", 0.03722222222222222], ["2022-07-06", 0.035263157894736843], ["2022-07-07", 0.035263157894736843], ["2022-07-07", 0.0485], ["2022-07-07", 0.048], ["2022-07-07", 0.048], ["2022-07-08", 0.062380952380952384], ["2022-07-08", 0.05904761904761905], ["2022-07-08", 0.05904761904761905], ["2022-07-09", 0.06272727272727273], ["2022-07-09", 0.07181818181818182], ["2022-07-10", 0.07181818181818182], ["2022-07-10", 0.06913043478260869], ["2022-07-10", 0.07347826086956522], ["2022-07-11", 0.07083333333333333], ["2022-07-12", 0.07416666666666667], ["2022-07-12", 0.07708333333333334], ["2022-07-12", 0.07708333333333334], ["2022-07-13", 0.07708333333333334], ["2022-07-14", 0.0825], ["2022-07-14", 0.0825], ["2022-07-15", 0.0812], ["2022-07-15", 0.0812], ["2022-07-16", 0.08923076923076922], ["2022-07-16", 0.08538461538461538], ["2022-07-16", 0.08538461538461538], ["2022-07-17", 0.08538461538461538], ["2022-07-17", 0.08538461538461538], ["2022-07-18", 0.08076923076923077], ["2022-07-18", 0.08115384615384616], ["2022-07-18", 0.09576923076923077], ["2022-07-19", 0.09576923076923077], ["2022-07-19", 0.09576923076923077], ["2022-07-20", 0.09576923076923077], ["2022-07-20", 0.09518518518518519], ["2022-07-20", 0.09571428571428571], ["2022-07-21", 0.09571428571428571], ["2022-07-21", 0.09785714285714285], ["2022-07-22", 0.09785714285714285], ["2022-07-23", 0.09785714285714285], ["2022-07-23", 0.08035714285714286], ["2022-07-24", 0.08035714285714286], ["2022-07-25", 0.08035714285714286], ["2022-07-26", 0.07793103448275862], ["2022-07-26", 0.07620689655172413], ["2022-07-27", 0.07620689655172413], ["2022-07-27", 0.07620689655172413], ["2022-07-28", 0.07586206896551724], ["2022-07-28", 0.07482758620689656], ["2022-07-29", 0.07482758620689656], ["2022-07-30", 0.07482758620689656], ["2022-07-31", 0.07482758620689656], ["2022-08-01", 0.07233333333333333], ["2022-08-01", 0.07233333333333333], ["2022-08-02", 0.07233333333333333], ["2022-08-03", 0.07166666666666667], ["2022-08-03", 0.072], ["2022-08-03", 0.06], ["2022-08-03", 0.059333333333333335], ["2022-08-04", 0.061], ["2022-08-04", 0.061], ["2022-08-05", 0.059333333333333335], ["2022-08-05", 0.059], ["2022-08-07", 0.059], ["2022-08-08", 0.059032258064516126], ["2022-08-09", 0.05741935483870968], ["2022-08-09", 0.06032258064516129], ["2022-08-10", 0.075625], ["2022-08-11", 0.075625], ["2022-08-12", 0.075625], ["2022-08-13", 0.075625], ["2022-08-15", 0.075625], ["2022-08-16", 0.0884375], ["2022-08-17", 0.088125], ["2022-08-19", 0.088125], ["2022-08-20", 0.0888], ["2022-08-22", 0.0856], ["2022-08-22", 0.0847], ["2022-08-23", 0.0844], ["2022-08-24", 0.0844], ["2022-08-25", 0.0844], ["2022-08-26", 0.0844], ["2022-08-27", 0.0879], ["2022-08-29", 0.087], ["2022-08-30", 0.087], ["2022-09-01", 0.087], ["2022-09-03", 0.087], ["2022-09-05", 0.087], ["2022-09-06", 0.0876], ["2022-09-07", 0.0868], ["2022-09-09", 0.0868], ["2022-09-09", 0.0803], ["2022-09-09", 0.0665], ["2022-09-11", 0.0646], ["2022-09-11", 0.0617], ["2022-09-11", 0.0603], ["2022-09-12", 0.06], ["2022-09-13", 0.0592], ["2022-09-14", 0.0633], ["2022-09-14", 0.0619], ["2022-09-15", 0.0619], ["2022-09-15", 0.0614], ["2022-09-16", 0.0614], ["2022-09-18", 0.0614], ["2022-09-20", 0.0597], ["2022-09-20", 0.0554], ["2022-09-22", 0.0554], ["2022-09-23", 0.0551], ["2022-09-24", 0.0563], ["2022-09-25", 0.0563], ["2022-09-27", 0.0561], ["2022-09-28", 0.0561], ["2022-09-28", 0.0589], ["2022-09-30", 0.0589], ["2022-10-01", 0.0592], ["2022-10-02", 0.0582], ["2022-10-02", 0.0587], ["2022-10-04", 0.0548], ["2022-10-06", 0.0403], ["2022-10-07", 0.0403], ["2022-10-08", 0.0398], ["2022-10-09", 0.0398], ["2022-10-10", 0.04], ["2022-10-11", 0.04], ["2022-10-13", 0.0424], ["2022-10-14", 0.0424], ["2022-10-16", 0.031], ["2022-10-16", 0.0374], ["2022-10-18", 0.0365], ["2022-10-19", 0.036], ["2022-10-20", 0.0352], ["2022-10-20", 0.0307], ["2022-10-21", 0.0534], ["2022-10-23", 0.0536], ["2022-10-24", 0.0291], ["2022-10-24", 0.0289], ["2022-10-25", 0.0289], ["2022-10-26", 0.0287], ["2022-10-26", 0.0284], ["2022-10-27", 0.0278], ["2022-10-27", 0.0278], ["2022-10-28", 0.0273], ["2022-10-29", 0.0273], ["2022-10-31", 0.0267], ["2022-11-02", 0.0267], ["2022-11-03", 0.0261], ["2022-11-04", 0.0261], ["2022-11-04", 0.0261], ["2022-11-06", 0.0261], ["2022-11-07", 0.0259], ["2022-11-07", 0.0261], ["2022-11-08", 0.0267], ["2022-11-08", 0.027], ["2022-11-08", 0.0266], ["2022-11-09", 0.0266], ["2022-11-09", 0.0264], ["2022-11-10", 0.0268], ["2022-11-12", 0.0268], ["2022-11-12", 0.0268], ["2022-11-13", 0.0268], ["2022-11-14", 0.0283], ["2022-11-15", 0.0354], ["2022-11-15", 0.035], ["2022-11-16", 0.0354], ["2022-11-18", 0.0356], ["2022-11-19", 0.0356], ["2022-11-20", 0.0356], ["2022-11-21", 0.0354], ["2022-11-22", 0.035], ["2022-11-23", 0.035], ["2022-11-24", 0.035], ["2022-11-26", 0.035], ["2022-11-26", 0.035], ["2022-11-27", 0.0343], ["2022-11-28", 0.0339], ["2022-11-30", 0.0339], ["2022-11-30", 0.0532], ["2022-12-01", 0.0532], ["2022-12-02", 0.053], ["2022-12-02", 0.053], ["2022-12-03", 0.0518], ["2022-12-04", 0.0518], ["2022-12-05", 0.0502], ["2022-12-06", 0.0492], ["2022-12-07", 0.0488], ["2022-12-07", 0.0486], ["2022-12-09", 0.0482], ["2022-12-10", 0.0482], ["2022-12-12", 0.0482], ["2022-12-13", 0.0482], ["2022-12-14", 0.0555], ["2022-12-14", 0.0594], ["2022-12-16", 0.0594], ["2022-12-16", 0.0583], ["2022-12-17", 0.0592], ["2022-12-17", 0.0592], ["2022-12-17", 0.06], ["2022-12-18", 0.0589], ["2022-12-18", 0.0577], ["2022-12-19", 0.0622], ["2022-12-20", 0.062], ["2022-12-20", 0.0613], ["2022-12-21", 0.0583], ["2022-12-21", 0.0581], ["2022-12-22", 0.058], ["2022-12-23", 0.0576], ["2022-12-23", 0.0493], ["2022-12-24", 0.0493], ["2022-12-24", 0.0491], ["2022-12-25", 0.048], ["2022-12-25", 0.0471], ["2022-12-25", 0.0475], ["2022-12-25", 0.0473], ["2022-12-26", 0.0473], ["2022-12-26", 0.0473], ["2022-12-26", 0.0459], ["2022-12-26", 0.0455], ["2022-12-27", 0.0446], ["2022-12-27", 0.0445], ["2022-12-27", 0.0439], ["2022-12-28", 0.0413], ["2022-12-28", 0.0409], ["2022-12-28", 0.0407], ["2022-12-29", 0.04], ["2022-12-29", 0.0391], ["2022-12-30", 0.0389], ["2022-12-30", 0.0388], ["2022-12-30", 0.0381], ["2022-12-30", 0.0381], ["2022-12-31", 0.0388], ["2022-12-31", 0.0367], ["2023-01-01", 0.0367]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2431 | True |
2022-11-28 | Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel the People's Republic of China (PRC) and those of any other country before 28 November 2022? | binary |
<p>China is dealing with tensions with various countries, including India, Japan, Taiwan, and the US (<a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-08-12/india-calls-for-de-escalation-of-taiwan-china-tensions" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/china-japan-officials-meet-amid-taiwan-tensions-/6706508.html" target="_blank">Voice of America</a>, <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-relations-tension-us-policy-biden" target="_blank">Council on Foreign Relations</a>). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side. For the purposes of this question, Taiwan is considered another country.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2022-11-28 | gjopen | ["https://twitter.com/Ian_M_Easton/status/1318254008621031426", "https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/11/14/readout-of-president-joe-bidens-meeting-with-president-xi-jinping-of-the-peoples-republic-of-china/", "https://www.state.gov/secretary-blinkens-call-with-peoples-republic-of-china-prc-state-councilor-and-foreign-minister-wang-yi-3/", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/taiwan-braces-for-grim-times-after-chinas-xi-extends-power-11666878661", "https://www.newsweek.com/china-could-invade-taiwan-under-these-seven-scenarios-defense-report-says-1624989", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/09/indian-and-chinese-troops-pull-back-from-disputed-himalayan-border-area", "https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2022/06/06/2003779417", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-16/china-won-t-be-able-to-attack-taiwan-in-near-future-milley-says?leadSource=uverify%20wall", "https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/24/xi-weak-spot-economy-00063171", "https://www.yr.no/en/forecast/daily-table/2-1668281/Taiwan/Taiwan%20Strait", "https://www.uscc.gov/research/chinas-position-russias-invasion-ukraine"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2022-09-01 | 0.0 | [["2022-09-12", 0.335], ["2022-09-12", 0.205], ["2022-09-12", 0.165], ["2022-09-12", 0.125], ["2022-09-12", 0.111], ["2022-09-12", 0.0992], ["2022-09-12", 0.0857], ["2022-09-13", 0.1413], ["2022-09-13", 0.1276], ["2022-09-13", 0.1284], ["2022-09-13", 0.119], ["2022-09-13", 0.113], ["2022-09-13", 0.11], ["2022-09-13", 0.1073], ["2022-09-13", 0.1022], ["2022-09-13", 0.0983], ["2022-09-13", 0.0939], ["2022-09-13", 0.0909], ["2022-09-13", 0.0876], ["2022-09-13", 0.0894], ["2022-09-14", 0.0869], ["2022-09-14", 0.1061], ["2022-09-14", 0.1028], ["2022-09-14", 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["2022-11-11", 0.0413], ["2022-11-11", 0.0411], ["2022-11-12", 0.0418], ["2022-11-12", 0.0418], ["2022-11-13", 0.0414], ["2022-11-13", 0.0414], ["2022-11-13", 0.0408], ["2022-11-13", 0.0403], ["2022-11-13", 0.0399], ["2022-11-14", 0.0395], ["2022-11-14", 0.0299], ["2022-11-14", 0.0294], ["2022-11-14", 0.0311], ["2022-11-14", 0.0315], ["2022-11-14", 0.0299], ["2022-11-15", 0.03], ["2022-11-15", 0.0293], ["2022-11-15", 0.0261], ["2022-11-15", 0.0263], ["2022-11-15", 0.0257], ["2022-11-15", 0.0246], ["2022-11-15", 0.0245], ["2022-11-15", 0.0239], ["2022-11-15", 0.0235], ["2022-11-16", 0.0233], ["2022-11-16", 0.0224], ["2022-11-16", 0.022], ["2022-11-16", 0.0217], ["2022-11-17", 0.0216], ["2022-11-17", 0.0214], ["2022-11-17", 0.0213], ["2022-11-18", 0.0227], ["2022-11-18", 0.0217], ["2022-11-18", 0.0218], ["2022-11-18", 0.0217], ["2022-11-18", 0.0214], ["2022-11-18", 0.0208], ["2022-11-19", 0.0207], ["2022-11-19", 0.0206], ["2022-11-20", 0.0204], ["2022-11-20", 0.0206], ["2022-11-20", 0.0263], ["2022-11-21", 0.0261], ["2022-11-21", 0.026], ["2022-11-21", 0.026], ["2022-11-21", 0.0255], ["2022-11-21", 0.0253], ["2022-11-21", 0.0247], ["2022-11-21", 0.0244], ["2022-11-21", 0.0234], ["2022-11-21", 0.0228], ["2022-11-21", 0.0227], ["2022-11-21", 0.0281], ["2022-11-21", 0.0268], ["2022-11-21", 0.0266], ["2022-11-21", 0.0265], ["2022-11-21", 0.0266], ["2022-11-21", 0.0269], ["2022-11-21", 0.0269], ["2022-11-22", 0.0266], ["2022-11-22", 0.0256], ["2022-11-22", 0.0256], ["2022-11-22", 0.0253], ["2022-11-22", 0.0252], ["2022-11-22", 0.0251], ["2022-11-23", 0.0248], ["2022-11-23", 0.026], ["2022-11-23", 0.0266], ["2022-11-23", 0.035], ["2022-11-23", 0.0295], ["2022-11-23", 0.0291], ["2022-11-24", 0.0287], ["2022-11-24", 0.0307], ["2022-11-24", 0.026], ["2022-11-24", 0.0252], ["2022-11-24", 0.0254], ["2022-11-25", 0.0254], ["2022-11-25", 0.0255], ["2022-11-25", 0.0253], ["2022-11-26", 0.0249], ["2022-11-26", 0.0247], ["2022-11-26", 0.0247], ["2022-11-26", 0.0246], ["2022-11-27", 0.0245], ["2022-11-27", 0.0245], ["2022-11-27", 0.0242], ["2022-11-27", 0.0239], ["2022-11-27", 0.0237], ["2022-11-28", 0.0237], ["2022-11-28", 0.0236], ["2022-11-28", 0.0234], ["2022-11-28", 0.0232], ["2022-11-28", 0.0234], ["2022-11-28", 0.0232], ["2022-11-28", 0.0237], ["2022-11-28", 0.0237]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2531 | True |
2022-02-28 | Will the price of steel plate in the US be higher as of 28 February 2022 than it was as of 24 January 2022, according to Steel Benchmarker? | binary |
<p>Steel prices have seen large gains as inflation grips the US economy (<a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/02/10/1079260860/january-inflation-consumer-prices-cpi-economy-federal-reserve" target="_blank">NPR</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by SteelBenchmarker (<a href="http://steelbenchmarker.com/history.pdf" target="_blank">SteelBenchmarker</a>, see USA FOB mill, "Dollars per Metric Tonne," page 10 as of launch). As of 24 January 2022, the price for "Plate" was 2,015.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-03-02 | gjopen | ["https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/ferrous/steel-futures.html", "https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/iron-ore-price", "https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/ferrous/us-midwest-domestic-steel-premium-cru.quotes.html", "https://www.metalbulletin.com/steel/flat-products/plate.html", "https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/10/31/joint-us-eu-statement-on-trade-in-steel-and-aluminum/", "https://www.axios.com/steel-prices-hit-lowest-level-year-922ee741-78fd-4b5f-9c7c-89ecbdf2b05b.html", "https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/steel?user=Analyst42718", "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/", "https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/steel", "https://www.bruegel.org/2021/11/what-to-make-of-the-eu-us-deal-on-steel-and-aluminium/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1397139", "http://steelbenchmarker.com/history.pdf", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2015", "https://agmetalminer.com/mmwp/2022/01/05/this-morning-in-metals-u-s-steel-prices-continue-to-cool/", "https://wiki.factorio.com/Steel_plate#Normal%20mode", "https://www.trade.gov/data-visualization/us-steel-import-monitor", "https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/biden-and-europe-remove-trumps-steel-and-aluminum-tariffs", "https://www.argusmedia.com/metals-platform/price/assessment/PA00222000000", "https://www.lme.com/en/Metals/Ferrous/LME-Steel-HRC-N-America-Platts#Trading+day+summary", "https://mepsinternational.com/gb/en/news/global-steel-prices-forecast-to-remain-elevated-in-2022", "https://legacy.trade.gov/steel/countries/pdfs/imports-us.pdf", "https://www.scrapmonster.com/steel-prices/standard-plate-prices/595"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2022-02-11 | 1.0 | [["2022-02-11", 1.0], ["2022-02-11", 0.995], ["2022-02-11", 1.0], ["2022-02-11", 0.995], ["2022-02-11", 1.0], ["2022-02-11", 0.995], 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2021-09-15 | Will the UN, a UN agency, and/or OECD member country publicly accuse Myanmar defense forces and/or law enforcement of using a toxic chemical against protesters to cause intentional death or physical harm through its toxic properties before 15 September 2021? | binary |
<p>As civil unrest in Myanmar grows in the wake of the February coup, there are fears as to what lengths the military may go to suppress protests (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55902070" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/myanmar-police-use-water-cannon-as-protesters-rally/a-56492744" target="_blank">Deutsche Welle</a>). The use of riot control agents (e.g., "tear gas"), as defined in Article II, section 7 of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), would only count for the purposes of this question if the pertinent accusation claims its use was in violation of international law (<a href="https://www.cwc.gov/cwc_treaty_full.html" target="_blank">CWC.gov</a>, <a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2016-03/features/perilous-paths%C2%A0weaponizing-toxic-chemicals-law-enforcement" target="_blank">Arms Control Association</a>, <a href="https://www.opcw.org/sites/default/files/documents/CSP/C-14/open-forum/Dangerous-Ambiguities-Regulation-of-Riot-Control-Agents-and-Incapacitants-under-the-Chemical-Weapons-Convention_Rev.1.pdf" target="_blank">Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons</a>). The identification of the exact chemical used against protesters would not be necessary for resolution. Examples include the use of white phosphorous in Myanmar in 2013 and Syria's use of chlorine in its civil war (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-21751357" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2019-11/news-briefs/us-alleges-new-syrian-chlorine-attack" target="_blank">Arms Control Association</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-09-15 | gjopen | ["https://www.myanmar-now.org/en/news/fighting-ignites-between-kia-and-junta-in-sagaing", "https://www.arabnews.com/node/1842531/world", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/5/3/at-least-8-reported-killed-in-myanmar-anti-coup-protests", "https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210501-un-fails-to-agree-on-myanmar-statement-diplomats-blame-china-russia", "https://www.reuters.com/places/myanmar", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/07/myanmar-opposition-announces-defensive-war-against-junta", "https://www.myanmar-now.org/en/news", "https://www.justiceformyanmar.org/press-releases/justice-for-myanmar-and-korean-civil-society-cautiously-welcome-posco-c-cs-decision-to-end-steel-business-with-mehl", "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/hundreds-myanmar-activists-hold-flash-mob-protest-against-military-rule-2021-06-03/", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/06/myanmar-junta-forces-reportedly-kill-20-civilians-in-fresh-clashes", "https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/whatsinblue/2021/04/private-meeting-on-myanmar-via-vtc.php", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/6/4/asean-diplomacy-in-myanmar-intensifies-as-eu-eyes-more", "https://www.firstpost.com/world/six-rebels-killed-by-myanmar-military-say-anti-junta-defence-force-us-uk-condemn-illegal-attacks-9627171.html", "https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/97200/myanmar-statement-high-representative-josep-borrell-outcome-asean-summit_en", "https://cass-mm.org/cass-weekly-update-6-12-may-2021/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/myanmar-risks-coming-standstill-violence-worsens-un-envoy-2021-04-30/", "https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/myanmars-shadow-government-announces-defensive-war", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/6/11/a-catastrophe-un-warns-of-intensifying-violence-in-myanmar", "https://thediplomat.com/2021/04/myanmar-protests-continue-after-asean-peace-initiative/", "https://thediplomat.com/2021/08/myanmars-anti-junta-resistance-inflicting-rising-casualties-report/", "https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/myanmar-army-using-civilians-as-human-shields-7h5bvvn7q", "https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/01/world/myanmar-military-leader-prime-minister-intl-hnk/index.html", "https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/03/26/russia-to-deepen-ties-with-myanmar-military-junta-top-defense-official-says-in-first-visit-after-coup-a73387", "https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/article/1124685/myanmar-denies-using-chemical-weapons-rebels", "https://country.eiu.com/myanmar"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2021-03-26 | 0.0 | [["2021-03-26", 0.1], ["2021-03-26", 0.05], ["2021-03-26", 0.0], ["2021-03-26", 0.0], ["2021-03-26", 0.0], ["2021-03-26", 0.0], ["2021-03-26", 0.0], ["2021-03-26", 0.0], ["2021-03-26", 0.0], ["2021-03-26", 0.0], ["2021-03-27", 0.0], ["2021-03-27", 0.0], 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["2021-09-13", 0.0], ["2021-09-14", 0.0], ["2021-09-15", 0.0], ["2021-09-15", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1972 | True |
2021-05-12 | On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency? | binary |
<p>On 4 November 2020, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared, and lawmakers approved, a state of emergency in the Tigray region following unrest that included an attack on a military base and controversial regional elections (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/abiy-ahmed-presents-ethiopias-voters-with-an-unhappy-choice" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/4/ethiopia-declares-state-of-emergency-in-opposition-tigray-region" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54805088" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/05/africa/ethiopia-abiy-unrest-explainer-intl/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>). The state of emergency can last up to 6 months at which point it expires or the government votes to renew it (<a href="https://www.servat.unibe.ch/icl/et00000_.html" target="_blank">Ethiopian Constitution</a>, see Article 93).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-05-17 | gjopen | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Minister_of_the_Netherlands", "https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/ethiopia/b171-ethiopias-tigray-war-deadly-dangerous-stalemate", "https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/09/cries-of-the-victims-of-mass-go-unheard-in-ethiopias-mountain-war", "https://chilot.me/2020/04/a-proclamation-to-approve-the-state-of-emergency-proclamation-no-3-2020/", "https://www.africanews.com/2021/05/05/tigray-war-and-logistical-issues-plague-ethiopia-s-elections/", "https://www.ena.et/en/?p=22587", "https://www.ena.et/en/?cat=7", "https://www.ena.et/en/?p=24035", "https://www.ena.et/en/?p=23833", "https://www.facebook.com/GeezMedia/posts/834083590524583", "https://chilot.me/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Regulation-No.479-2020-Regulation-concerning-Provisional-Administration-in-Tigray-National-Region.pdf", "https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=&sl=am&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.press.et%2Fama%2F%3Fp%3D44496", "https://www.dw.com/en/ethiopia-removes-tigray-regional-government-leader/a-57440830", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Minister_of_Lebanon", "https://www.facebook.com/24HoursTelevision/posts/112291510991819", "https://www.ena.et/en/?p=24174", "https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/10/31/legal-analysis-ethiopias-state-emergency#_ftnref39", "https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/ethiopia/b160-toward-end-ethiopias-federal-tigray-feud", "https://www.africanews.com/2021/05/04/ethiopia-at-crossroads-amid-rise-in-ethnic-tension/", "https://www.arabnews.com/node/1248336/world", "https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/09/alleged-atrocities-tigray-ethiopia", "https://www.moh.gov.et/ejcc/sites/default/files/2020-04/negarit.pdf", "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/g7-foreign-and-development-ministers-meeting-may-2021-communique", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/04/01/ethiopia-tigray-oromia-ethnic-nationalism-needs-constitutional-convention/", "https://www.theafricareport.com/85905/eritreas-letter-to-un-is-open-admission-of-aggression-in-ethiopias-tigray-war/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2020-11-12 | 0.0 | [["2020-11-13", 1.0], ["2020-11-13", 0.95], ["2020-11-13", 1.0], ["2020-11-13", 0.95], ["2020-11-13", 0.9], ["2020-11-13", 0.875], ["2020-11-14", 0.9], ["2020-11-14", 0.9], ["2020-11-14", 0.9], ["2020-11-14", 0.9], ["2020-11-14", 0.9], ["2020-11-14", 0.9], ["2020-11-15", 0.9], ["2020-11-15", 0.9], ["2020-11-15", 0.875], ["2020-11-15", 0.9], ["2020-11-15", 0.9], ["2020-11-16", 0.905], ["2020-11-16", 0.8], ["2020-11-16", 0.8], ["2020-11-16", 0.925], ["2020-11-16", 0.945], ["2020-11-16", 0.945], ["2020-11-17", 0.985], ["2020-11-17", 0.985], ["2020-11-17", 0.84], ["2020-11-17", 0.84], ["2020-11-17", 0.75], ["2020-11-17", 0.875], ["2020-11-17", 0.95], ["2020-11-17", 0.8], ["2020-11-17", 0.875], 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2020-07-17 | Before 18 July 2020, will President Trump announce that Nikki Haley will be his 2020 running mate? | binary |
<p>In early March, Democratic Party insider and CNN contributor Paul Begala said that it was "a certainty" that Trump will "dump Mike Pence and put Nikki Haley on the ticket" on the last day of the Democratic National Convention (<a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/media/485562-cnns-begala-trump-will-dump-pence-for-haley-on-day-of-democratic-nominees" target="_blank">The Hill</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/03/02/aipac-2020-paul-begala-bold-election-predictions-trump-pence-haley.aipac" target="_blank">CNN</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>
| 2020-07-18 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2020-03-05 | 0.0 | [["2020-03-06", 0.45], ["2020-03-06", 0.33], ["2020-03-06", 0.16], ["2020-03-06", 0.16], ["2020-03-06", 0.1], ["2020-03-06", 0.085], ["2020-03-07", 0.07], ["2020-03-07", 0.07], ["2020-03-07", 0.07], ["2020-03-07", 0.07], ["2020-03-07", 0.085], ["2020-03-07", 0.18], ["2020-03-07", 0.2], ["2020-03-07", 0.2], ["2020-03-07", 0.2], ["2020-03-07", 0.2], ["2020-03-07", 0.175], ["2020-03-07", 0.15], ["2020-03-07", 0.175], ["2020-03-07", 0.2], ["2020-03-07", 0.2], ["2020-03-07", 0.175], ["2020-03-08", 0.15], ["2020-03-08", 0.1], ["2020-03-08", 0.15], ["2020-03-08", 0.125], ["2020-03-08", 0.12], ["2020-03-08", 0.09], ["2020-03-08", 0.06], ["2020-03-08", 0.06], ["2020-03-08", 0.06], ["2020-03-08", 0.06], ["2020-03-08", 0.06], ["2020-03-08", 0.06], ["2020-03-08", 0.06], ["2020-03-08", 0.06], ["2020-03-08", 0.065], ["2020-03-08", 0.07], ["2020-03-08", 0.05], ["2020-03-09", 0.065], ["2020-03-09", 0.07], 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2022-01-01 | Will US federal legislation implementing or authorizing a mandatory carbon pricing mechanism become law before 1 January 2022? | binary |
<p>President Biden and Democrats in Congress are exploring policy options to impose mandatory carbon pricing in the United States (<a href="https://eelp.law.harvard.edu/2020/11/president-elect-biden-supports-a-carbon-enforcement-mechanism-could-that-mean-a-price-on-carbon/" target="_blank">Harvard Environmental & Energy Law Program</a>, <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/534985-carbon-pricing-could-be-the-biden-administrations-climate-tool" target="_blank">The Hill</a>, <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/649352/EPRS_BRI(2020)649352_EN.pdf" target="_blank">European Parliament</a>). For the purposes of this question, a carbon pricing mechanism would be a legal framework that captures the external costs of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and ties them to their sources through a price, usually in the form of a price on the CO2 emitted, and could include taxes and/or a cap-and-trade system (<a href="https://carbonpricingdashboard.worldbank.org/what-carbon-pricing" target="_blank">World Bank</a>). Examples of existing mandatory carbon pricing mechanisms include the EU Emissions Trading System (<a href="https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/ets_en" target="_blank">European Commission</a>), the California Cap-and-Trade Program (<a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/cap-and-trade-program" target="_blank">California Air Resources Board</a>), and the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (<a href="https://www.rggi.org/" target="_blank">RGGI</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-01-01 | gjopen | ["https://dnyuz.com/2021/09/24/sinemas-income-tax-stance-has-democrats-looking-anew-at-a-carbon-tax/", "https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1450474320992538629", "https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/2378", "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/15/will-us-ever-put-a-price-on-carbon-as-part-of-climate-change-policy.html", "https://www.ft.com/content/4ecd8ace-8c5f-40ad-b2fa-c3bf27c2c621", "https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/ets_en", "https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/2378/text", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2021/03/25/carbon-tax-biden/", "https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/white-house-withholds-support-democratic-carbon-border-tax-2021-08-20/", "https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/electric-power/072021-us-democrats-propose-carbon-emissions-border-tax", "https://www.akingump.com/en/news-insights/house-democrats-forge-ahead-with-dollar550-billion-for-climate-in-build-back-better-act-summary-of-climate-energy-and-environment-provisions-in-the-house-budget-reconciliation-package.html", "https://coloradonewsline.com/2021/08/31/hickenlooper-carbon-pricing-democrats-budget-bill/", "https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/g20-recognizes-carbon-pricing-climate-change-tool-first-time-2021-07-10/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2021-04-30 | 0.0 | [["2021-04-30", 0.0], ["2021-04-30", 0.035], ["2021-04-30", 0.07], ["2021-04-30", 0.035], ["2021-04-30", 0.07], ["2021-04-30", 0.11], ["2021-04-30", 0.07], ["2021-04-30", 0.06], ["2021-04-30", 0.05], ["2021-04-30", 0.01], ["2021-05-01", 0.005], ["2021-05-01", 0.01], ["2021-05-01", 0.03], ["2021-05-01", 0.01], ["2021-05-01", 0.03], ["2021-05-01", 0.01], ["2021-05-01", 0.015], ["2021-05-01", 0.01], ["2021-05-01", 0.01], ["2021-05-02", 0.005], ["2021-05-02", 0.0], ["2021-05-02", 0.005], ["2021-05-02", 0.005], ["2021-05-02", 0.01], ["2021-05-02", 0.005], ["2021-05-02", 0.01], ["2021-05-02", 0.005], ["2021-05-02", 0.0], ["2021-05-02", 0.0], ["2021-05-02", 0.005], ["2021-05-02", 0.0], ["2021-05-03", 0.005], ["2021-05-03", 0.0], ["2021-05-03", 0.005], ["2021-05-03", 0.0], ["2021-05-03", 0.01], ["2021-05-03", 0.01], ["2021-05-03", 0.01], ["2021-05-03", 0.01], ["2021-05-03", 0.01], ["2021-05-03", 0.01], ["2021-05-03", 0.01], ["2021-05-03", 0.01], ["2021-05-03", 0.01], ["2021-05-04", 0.015], ["2021-05-04", 0.02], ["2021-05-04", 0.025], ["2021-05-04", 0.02], ["2021-05-04", 0.015], ["2021-05-04", 0.03], ["2021-05-05", 0.04], ["2021-05-05", 0.04], ["2021-05-05", 0.045], ["2021-05-05", 0.05], ["2021-05-05", 0.04], ["2021-05-05", 0.04], ["2021-05-06", 0.04], ["2021-05-06", 0.04], ["2021-05-06", 0.04], ["2021-05-08", 0.03], ["2021-05-09", 0.03], ["2021-05-10", 0.03], ["2021-05-10", 0.035], ["2021-05-10", 0.03], ["2021-05-10", 0.03], ["2021-05-11", 0.025], ["2021-05-13", 0.025], ["2021-05-13", 0.025], ["2021-05-14", 0.02], ["2021-05-14", 0.02], ["2021-05-16", 0.03], ["2021-05-18", 0.03], ["2021-05-21", 0.02], ["2021-05-21", 0.02], ["2021-05-25", 0.02], ["2021-05-27", 0.02], ["2021-05-29", 0.02], ["2021-05-31", 0.02], ["2021-06-01", 0.02], ["2021-06-02", 0.02], ["2021-06-04", 0.02], ["2021-06-04", 0.02], ["2021-06-05", 0.02], ["2021-06-10", 0.02], ["2021-06-10", 0.02], ["2021-06-11", 0.02], ["2021-06-13", 0.02], ["2021-06-17", 0.02], ["2021-06-20", 0.02], ["2021-06-21", 0.02], ["2021-06-22", 0.02], ["2021-06-23", 0.02], ["2021-06-24", 0.02], ["2021-06-26", 0.02], ["2021-06-28", 0.02], ["2021-06-29", 0.02], ["2021-07-01", 0.02], ["2021-07-01", 0.02], ["2021-07-02", 0.02], ["2021-07-02", 0.02], ["2021-07-03", 0.02], ["2021-07-06", 0.02], ["2021-07-07", 0.02], ["2021-07-08", 0.02], ["2021-07-09", 0.02], ["2021-07-11", 0.02], ["2021-07-13", 0.02], ["2021-07-13", 0.02], ["2021-07-13", 0.02], ["2021-07-13", 0.02], ["2021-07-14", 0.02], ["2021-07-18", 0.02], ["2021-07-19", 0.02], ["2021-07-19", 0.02], ["2021-07-21", 0.02], ["2021-07-22", 0.02], ["2021-07-26", 0.02], ["2021-07-27", 0.02], ["2021-07-27", 0.02], ["2021-07-29", 0.02], ["2021-07-29", 0.025], ["2021-07-29", 0.025], ["2021-07-29", 0.03], ["2021-07-30", 0.03], ["2021-08-01", 0.03], ["2021-08-02", 0.03], ["2021-08-03", 0.03], ["2021-08-05", 0.03], ["2021-08-05", 0.03], ["2021-08-06", 0.03], ["2021-08-07", 0.03], ["2021-08-09", 0.02], ["2021-08-09", 0.02], ["2021-08-10", 0.02], ["2021-08-10", 0.02], ["2021-08-11", 0.02], ["2021-08-11", 0.02], ["2021-08-13", 0.02], ["2021-08-13", 0.02], ["2021-08-14", 0.02], ["2021-08-14", 0.02], ["2021-08-16", 0.03], ["2021-08-17", 0.04], ["2021-08-17", 0.045], ["2021-08-19", 0.05], ["2021-08-20", 0.05], ["2021-08-23", 0.045], ["2021-08-24", 0.045], ["2021-08-24", 0.045], ["2021-08-24", 0.045], ["2021-08-24", 0.045], ["2021-08-25", 0.045], ["2021-08-27", 0.04], ["2021-08-28", 0.035], ["2021-08-30", 0.035], ["2021-08-30", 0.035], ["2021-09-01", 0.035], ["2021-09-01", 0.025], ["2021-09-02", 0.02], ["2021-09-02", 0.02], ["2021-09-02", 0.02], ["2021-09-03", 0.015], ["2021-09-04", 0.01], ["2021-09-05", 0.01], ["2021-09-07", 0.01], ["2021-09-08", 0.01], ["2021-09-11", 0.01], ["2021-09-11", 0.01], ["2021-09-11", 0.01], ["2021-09-12", 0.015], ["2021-09-12", 0.015], ["2021-09-14", 0.015], ["2021-09-15", 0.015], ["2021-09-16", 0.01], ["2021-09-18", 0.01], ["2021-09-20", 0.01], ["2021-09-23", 0.01], ["2021-09-24", 0.01], ["2021-09-24", 0.01], ["2021-09-24", 0.02], ["2021-09-26", 0.02], ["2021-09-27", 0.02], ["2021-09-28", 0.02], ["2021-09-28", 0.02], ["2021-09-28", 0.02], ["2021-09-29", 0.02], ["2021-09-29", 0.02], ["2021-09-30", 0.02], ["2021-10-04", 0.02], ["2021-10-04", 0.01], ["2021-10-06", 0.01], ["2021-10-07", 0.01], ["2021-10-07", 0.02], ["2021-10-11", 0.02], ["2021-10-14", 0.02], ["2021-10-15", 0.02], ["2021-10-17", 0.02], ["2021-10-18", 0.02], ["2021-10-18", 0.02], ["2021-10-19", 0.02], ["2021-10-20", 0.015], ["2021-10-21", 0.015], ["2021-10-23", 0.01], ["2021-10-24", 0.01], ["2021-10-24", 0.01], ["2021-10-26", 0.01], ["2021-10-26", 0.01], ["2021-10-26", 0.01], ["2021-10-28", 0.01], ["2021-10-29", 0.01], ["2021-10-30", 0.01], ["2021-10-31", 0.01], ["2021-11-02", 0.01], ["2021-11-02", 0.01], ["2021-11-04", 0.01], ["2021-11-08", 0.01], ["2021-11-09", 0.01], ["2021-11-10", 0.01], ["2021-11-10", 0.01], ["2021-11-10", 0.01], ["2021-11-14", 0.0], ["2021-11-15", 0.0], ["2021-11-16", 0.0], ["2021-11-18", 0.0], ["2021-11-18", 0.0], ["2021-11-18", 0.0], ["2021-11-20", 0.0], ["2021-11-22", 0.0], ["2021-11-23", 0.0], ["2021-11-23", 0.0], ["2021-11-24", 0.0], ["2021-11-24", 0.0], ["2021-11-25", 0.0], ["2021-11-26", 0.0], ["2021-11-29", 0.0], ["2021-12-05", 0.0], ["2021-12-05", 0.0], ["2021-12-06", 0.0], ["2021-12-07", 0.0], ["2021-12-09", 0.0], ["2021-12-13", 0.0], ["2021-12-13", 0.0], ["2021-12-13", 0.0], ["2021-12-16", 0.0], ["2021-12-20", 0.0], ["2021-12-20", 0.0], ["2021-12-20", 0.0], ["2021-12-20", 0.0], ["2021-12-22", 0.0], ["2021-12-25", 0.0], ["2021-12-26", 0.0], ["2021-12-26", 0.0], ["2021-12-27", 0.0], ["2021-12-29", 0.0], ["2021-12-29", 0.0], ["2021-12-30", 0.0], ["2022-01-01", 0.0], ["2022-01-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1995 | True |
2020-04-28 | Before 4 July 2020, will Fitch, Moody's, and/or S&P downgrade Italy's long-term foreign currency issuer ratings? | binary |
<p>Amidst a full lockdown, Italy's long-term growth potential could take a hit (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-ratings-s-p/sp-global-risk-to-italy-rating-only-if-coronavirus-hits-long-term-growth-idUSKBN20X213" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/rating" target="_blank">Trading Economics</a>). Revisions to the "outlook" would not count. <br></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-downgrades-italy-to-bbb-outlook-stable-28-04-2020" target="_blank">Fitch</a>).</p><p style="margin-bottom:10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>
| 2020-04-29 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2020-03-26 | 1.0 | [["2020-03-27", 0.55], ["2020-03-27", 0.55], ["2020-03-27", 0.55], ["2020-03-27", 0.575], ["2020-03-27", 0.58], ["2020-03-27", 0.56], ["2020-03-27", 0.58], ["2020-03-27", 0.6], ["2020-03-27", 0.58], ["2020-03-27", 0.56], ["2020-03-28", 0.6], ["2020-03-28", 0.58], ["2020-03-28", 0.58], ["2020-03-28", 0.585], ["2020-03-28", 0.59], ["2020-03-28", 0.535], ["2020-03-28", 0.535], ["2020-03-28", 0.535], ["2020-03-28", 0.58], ["2020-03-28", 0.58], ["2020-03-28", 0.58], ["2020-03-28", 0.58], ["2020-03-28", 0.62], ["2020-03-29", 0.66], ["2020-03-29", 0.66], ["2020-03-29", 0.66], ["2020-03-29", 0.66], ["2020-03-29", 0.66], ["2020-03-29", 0.66], ["2020-03-29", 0.67], ["2020-03-29", 0.74], ["2020-03-29", 0.795], ["2020-03-29", 0.795], ["2020-03-29", 0.795], ["2020-03-29", 0.8], ["2020-03-29", 0.775], ["2020-03-29", 0.8], ["2020-03-30", 0.85], ["2020-03-30", 0.85], ["2020-03-30", 0.85], ["2020-03-30", 0.85], ["2020-03-30", 0.85], ["2020-03-30", 0.85], ["2020-03-30", 0.85], ["2020-03-30", 0.85], ["2020-03-30", 0.85], ["2020-03-30", 0.85], ["2020-03-30", 0.85], ["2020-03-30", 0.825], ["2020-03-31", 0.825], ["2020-03-31", 0.8], ["2020-03-31", 0.8], ["2020-03-31", 0.825], ["2020-03-31", 0.825], ["2020-03-31", 0.825], ["2020-03-31", 0.825], ["2020-03-31", 0.775], ["2020-03-31", 0.775], ["2020-04-01", 0.775], ["2020-04-01", 0.75], ["2020-04-01", 0.75], ["2020-04-01", 0.775], ["2020-04-01", 0.775], ["2020-04-01", 0.75], ["2020-04-01", 0.75], ["2020-04-02", 0.75], ["2020-04-02", 0.75], ["2020-04-02", 0.75], ["2020-04-02", 0.75], ["2020-04-02", 0.75], ["2020-04-02", 0.75], ["2020-04-02", 0.725], ["2020-04-02", 0.725], ["2020-04-02", 0.635], ["2020-04-02", 0.625], ["2020-04-02", 0.625], ["2020-04-02", 0.625], ["2020-04-02", 0.595], ["2020-04-02", 0.595], ["2020-04-02", 0.495], ["2020-04-02", 0.45], ["2020-04-03", 0.45], ["2020-04-03", 0.45], ["2020-04-03", 0.45], ["2020-04-03", 0.45], ["2020-04-03", 0.45], ["2020-04-04", 0.45], ["2020-04-04", 0.45], ["2020-04-04", 0.5], ["2020-04-04", 0.45], ["2020-04-04", 0.445], ["2020-04-04", 0.445], ["2020-04-04", 0.45], ["2020-04-05", 0.45], ["2020-04-05", 0.45], ["2020-04-05", 0.45], ["2020-04-05", 0.45], ["2020-04-05", 0.44], ["2020-04-05", 0.445], ["2020-04-05", 0.45], ["2020-04-05", 0.475], ["2020-04-05", 0.45], ["2020-04-05", 0.395], ["2020-04-05", 0.35], ["2020-04-05", 0.35], ["2020-04-05", 0.45], ["2020-04-06", 0.45], ["2020-04-06", 0.45], ["2020-04-06", 0.45], ["2020-04-06", 0.45], ["2020-04-07", 0.35], ["2020-04-07", 0.35], ["2020-04-08", 0.35], ["2020-04-08", 0.4], ["2020-04-08", 0.4], ["2020-04-08", 0.4], ["2020-04-08", 0.4], ["2020-04-08", 0.4], ["2020-04-09", 0.4], ["2020-04-09", 0.425], ["2020-04-09", 0.425], ["2020-04-09", 0.35], ["2020-04-09", 0.35], ["2020-04-09", 0.34], ["2020-04-10", 0.34], ["2020-04-10", 0.34], ["2020-04-10", 0.395], ["2020-04-11", 0.34], ["2020-04-11", 0.35], ["2020-04-11", 0.35], ["2020-04-11", 0.35], ["2020-04-11", 0.35], ["2020-04-11", 0.35], ["2020-04-11", 0.385], ["2020-04-12", 0.46], ["2020-04-12", 0.525], ["2020-04-12", 0.525], ["2020-04-12", 0.525], ["2020-04-12", 0.55], ["2020-04-13", 0.55], ["2020-04-13", 0.55], ["2020-04-13", 0.55], ["2020-04-13", 0.55], ["2020-04-13", 0.575], ["2020-04-13", 0.575], ["2020-04-13", 0.575], ["2020-04-13", 0.6], ["2020-04-13", 0.6], ["2020-04-13", 0.575], ["2020-04-13", 0.6], ["2020-04-13", 0.6], ["2020-04-13", 0.6], ["2020-04-13", 0.6], ["2020-04-13", 0.55], ["2020-04-14", 0.575], ["2020-04-14", 0.575], ["2020-04-14", 0.575], ["2020-04-14", 0.6], ["2020-04-14", 0.6], ["2020-04-15", 0.6], ["2020-04-15", 0.575], ["2020-04-15", 0.6], ["2020-04-15", 0.6], ["2020-04-15", 0.6], ["2020-04-15", 0.6], ["2020-04-15", 0.62], ["2020-04-16", 0.61], ["2020-04-16", 0.61], ["2020-04-16", 0.61], ["2020-04-16", 0.61], ["2020-04-16", 0.63], ["2020-04-16", 0.63], ["2020-04-17", 0.62], ["2020-04-18", 0.64], ["2020-04-18", 0.64], ["2020-04-19", 0.63], ["2020-04-19", 0.63], ["2020-04-19", 0.63], ["2020-04-19", 0.63], ["2020-04-19", 0.64], ["2020-04-20", 0.64], ["2020-04-20", 0.64], ["2020-04-20", 0.645], ["2020-04-20", 0.645], ["2020-04-21", 0.64], ["2020-04-22", 0.645], ["2020-04-23", 0.65], ["2020-04-23", 0.665], ["2020-04-24", 0.665], ["2020-04-24", 0.65], ["2020-04-24", 0.65], ["2020-04-24", 0.65], ["2020-04-24", 0.65], ["2020-04-25", 0.65], ["2020-04-25", 0.65], ["2020-04-25", 0.64], ["2020-04-25", 0.6], ["2020-04-25", 0.6], ["2020-04-25", 0.55], ["2020-04-25", 0.55], ["2020-04-25", 0.55], ["2020-04-25", 0.55], ["2020-04-25", 0.55], ["2020-04-25", 0.55], ["2020-04-26", 0.53], ["2020-04-26", 0.53], ["2020-04-26", 0.53], ["2020-04-26", 0.53], ["2020-04-26", 0.505], ["2020-04-26", 0.505], ["2020-04-26", 0.5], ["2020-04-26", 0.5], ["2020-04-27", 0.5], ["2020-04-27", 0.5], ["2020-04-27", 0.5], ["2020-04-27", 0.45], ["2020-04-27", 0.45], ["2020-04-27", 0.45], ["2020-04-27", 0.5], ["2020-04-27", 0.5], ["2020-04-28", 0.475], ["2020-04-28", 0.45], ["2020-04-28", 0.45], ["2020-04-28", 0.45], ["2020-04-28", 0.45], ["2020-04-28", 0.45]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1574 | True |
None | Will the World Health Organization (WHO) declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 1 July 2024? | binary | <p>A PHEIC is defined by WHO as "an extraordinary event which is determined to constitute a public health risk to other States through the international spread of disease and to potentially require a coordinated international response" under International Health Regulations, with recent examples including COVID-19, Monkeypox, and wild polio (<a href="https://apps.who.int/iris/rest/bitstreams/1031116/retrieve" target="_blank">International Health Regulations 2005</a>, linked here under publications - <a href="https://www.who.int/health-topics/international-health-regulations#tab=tab_3" target="_blank">WHO - International Health Regulations</a>, <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/annex-2-of-the-international-health-regulations-(2005)" target="_blank">International Health Regulations - Annex II</a>, <a href="https://www.paho.org/en/news/30-1-2020-who-declares-public-health-emergency-novel-coronavirus" target="_blank">Pan American Health Organization</a>, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/07/23/1113183728/monkeypox-global-health-emergency-who" target="_blank">NPR</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | gjopen | ["https://www.fao.org/hunger/en/", "https://www.who.int/news/item/14-06-2007-international-health-regulations-enter-into-force", "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jul/27/tick-bite-red-meat-allergy-ags-cdc", "https://www.propublica.org/article/pandemic-outbreak-guinea-forest-propublica-analysis?utm_source=sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=weekly-newsletter&utm_content=river", "https://globalhealth.duke.edu/news/statistics-say-large-pandemics-are-more-likely-we-thought", "https://www.gapminder.org/factfulness-book/", "https://www.reuters.com/investigates/section/global-pandemic-bats-overview/", "https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/global-pandemic-bats-deforestation/", "https://www.gov.uk/government/news/ukhsa-detects-human-case-of-influenza-ah1n2v", "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-65390285", "http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/103758285.cms?from=mdr&utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_health_emergency_of_international_concern", "https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673621004748", "https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/kozhikode/sixth-nipah-virus-case-confirmed-in-kerala/articleshow/103680302.cms?from=mdr", "https://abcnews.go.com/Health/red-meat-allergy-caused-ticks-emerging-public-health/story?id=101712179", "https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/kozhikode/nipah-situation-is-totally-under-control-in-kerala-health-minister-veena-george/articleshow/103758285.cms?from=mdr", "https://apnews.com/article/sudan-fighting-egypt-chad-un-d6d4f9eefe94f4b871c32cc597850276", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_health_emergency_of_international_concern#Declarations", "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7798963/", "https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2023-DON456", "https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/kozhikode/nipah-virus-in-kerala-in-this-idukki-village-trees-bear-no-fruit-only-bats/articleshow/103676783.cms?from=mdr", "https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/14/india/kerala-nipah-virus-india-outbreak-intl-hnk/index.html", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/14/india/kerala-nipah-virus-india-outbreak-intl-hnk/index.html", "https://microbenotes.com/epidemic-causes-types-and-response/", "https://www.propublica.org/series/roots-of-an-outbreak"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2023-04-13 | Not resolved. | [["2023-04-13", 0.67], ["2023-04-13", 0.335], ["2023-04-13", 0.3233], ["2023-04-13", 0.33], ["2023-04-13", 0.402], ["2023-04-13", 0.4117], ["2023-04-14", 0.3529], ["2023-04-14", 0.3488], ["2023-04-14", 0.3333], ["2023-04-14", 0.3256], ["2023-04-14", 0.335], ["2023-04-14", 0.34], ["2023-04-15", 0.3333], ["2023-04-15", 0.3325], ["2023-04-16", 0.3146], ["2023-04-16", 0.2921], ["2023-04-16", 0.296], ["2023-04-16", 0.256], ["2023-04-17", 0.232], ["2023-04-17", 0.232], ["2023-04-17", 0.27], ["2023-04-17", 0.259], ["2023-04-18", 0.2382], ["2023-04-18", 0.2267], ["2023-04-18", 0.2773], ["2023-04-19", 0.2667], ["2023-04-19", 0.31], ["2023-04-19", 0.3446], ["2023-04-19", 0.3525], ["2023-04-19", 0.3692], ["2023-04-20", 0.3669], ["2023-04-20", 0.4382], ["2023-04-21", 0.4391], ["2023-04-21", 0.4382], ["2023-04-21", 0.4375], ["2023-04-21", 0.4408], ["2023-04-21", 0.4542], ["2023-04-21", 0.4833], ["2023-04-22", 0.4842], ["2023-04-22", 0.4758], ["2023-04-23", 0.4775], ["2023-04-23", 0.4283], ["2023-04-24", 0.4208], ["2023-04-25", 0.4338], ["2023-04-25", 0.4346], ["2023-04-25", 0.4562], ["2023-04-25", 0.4415], ["2023-04-26", 0.4423], ["2023-04-27", 0.4308], ["2023-04-28", 0.4485], ["2023-04-28", 0.4486], ["2023-05-02", 0.4257], ["2023-05-02", 0.4257], ["2023-05-03", 0.405], ["2023-05-03", 0.4029], ["2023-05-07", 0.3993], ["2023-05-07", 0.3986], ["2023-05-07", 0.3986], ["2023-05-10", 0.3936], ["2023-05-12", 0.3971], ["2023-05-12", 0.3936], ["2023-05-13", 0.39], ["2023-05-13", 0.3893], ["2023-05-15", 0.3871], ["2023-05-16", 0.4193], ["2023-05-18", 0.4207], ["2023-05-20", 0.42], ["2023-05-23", 0.4193], ["2023-05-23", 0.4207], ["2023-05-23", 0.435], ["2023-05-26", 0.4314], ["2023-05-29", 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0.2111], ["2023-08-02", 0.21], ["2023-08-04", 0.2072], ["2023-08-06", 0.2056], ["2023-08-08", 0.2044], ["2023-08-10", 0.2017], ["2023-08-11", 0.2006], ["2023-08-18", 0.2006], ["2023-08-22", 0.1956], ["2023-08-24", 0.195], ["2023-08-25", 0.1922], ["2023-08-27", 0.1906], ["2023-08-31", 0.2156], ["2023-08-31", 0.2163], ["2023-08-31", 0.2163], ["2023-08-31", 0.2258], ["2023-09-01", 0.2263], ["2023-09-03", 0.2247], ["2023-09-04", 0.2285], ["2023-09-04", 0.227], ["2023-09-06", 0.227], ["2023-09-08", 0.2275], ["2023-09-08", 0.2275], ["2023-09-08", 0.227], ["2023-09-12", 0.227], ["2023-09-13", 0.2265], ["2023-09-13", 0.234], ["2023-09-14", 0.238], ["2023-09-14", 0.2415], ["2023-09-14", 0.2435], ["2023-09-15", 0.2405], ["2023-09-18", 0.238], ["2023-09-18", 0.2395], ["2023-09-19", 0.241], ["2023-09-19", 0.241], ["2023-09-20", 0.2395], ["2023-09-20", 0.239], ["2023-09-20", 0.2385], ["2023-09-22", 0.2385], ["2023-09-23", 0.228], ["2023-09-24", 0.2275], ["2023-09-25", 0.2295], ["2023-09-27", 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0.2327], ["2023-12-24", 0.2323], ["2023-12-24", 0.2323], ["2023-12-27", 0.2222], ["2023-12-27", 0.2222], ["2023-12-27", 0.2178], ["2023-12-28", 0.2248], ["2023-12-28", 0.253], ["2023-12-28", 0.2183], ["2024-01-01", 0.2508], ["2024-01-02", 0.2483], ["2024-01-03", 0.2483], ["2024-01-07", 0.2479], ["2024-01-08", 0.2479], ["2024-01-09", 0.2583], ["2024-01-10", 0.2571], ["2024-01-11", 0.2508], ["2024-01-12", 0.2508]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2852 | False |
2022-01-01 | Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China? | binary |
<p>Several companies are developing autonomous vehicles in China with the goal of launching a commercial open to the public ride-hailing service (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/04/fully-driverless-cars-are-being-tested-in-china-for-the-first-time.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/02/autox-removes-safety-drivers/" target="_blank">TechCrunch</a>, <a href="https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-10-11/Baidu-rolls-out-self-driving-taxi-service-in-Beijing-UvCnsSa3g4/index.html" target="_blank">CGTN</a>). The service must involve payment to count for resolution of this question.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p><p></p><p><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">Note 2 February 2021</span>: A ride-hailing service using AVs that have remote monitors capable of taking control of the vehicle would not count.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-01-03 | gjopen | ["https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-Spotlight/China-guides-its-self-driving-startups-into-the-fast-lane", "https://roboticsandautomationnews.com/2021/01/28/baidu-apollo-receives-driverless-vehicle-test-permit-in-california/40012/", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2021/01/27/autox-opens-real-robotaxi-service-in-china-to-the-general-public/?sh=770ab7895a6f", "https://www.econotimes.com/Baidu-to-make-thousands-of-robotaxis-for-a-driverless-service-in-China-1611110", "https://www.scmp.com/tech/policy/article/3117735/china-allow-driverless-car-tests-highways-putting-it-same-lane-us", "https://www.pymnts.com/news/investment-tracker/2021/autonomous-vehicle-tech-pony-ai-raises-100-million/", "https://fortune.com/2021/05/28/germany-automobile-legalize-robotaxi-autonomous-vehicle/", "https://hypebeast.com/2021/2/china-autox-fully-driverless-autonomous-taxi-launch", "https://techcrunch.com/2021/01/25/blackberry-and-baidu-deepen-autonomous-connected-car-partnership/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1224417", "https://www.nscai.gov/2021-final-report/", "https://apnews.com/article/technology-driverless-cars-joint-ventures-las-vegas-nevada-99e57b67cd6685b33bb19efa7d5ff63e", "https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/chinas-baidu-to-launch-paid-driverless-ride-hailing-services-in-beijing-2", "https://www.intelligenttransport.com/transport-news/114787/china-autonomous-vehicle-laws/", "https://werideai.medium.com/weride-ceo-tony-han-committed-to-long-term-strategy-in-autonomous-driving-7037eb838cd3", "https://www.traffictechnologytoday.com/news/mobility-as-a-service/baidu-introduces-worlds-first-multi-modal-autonomous-driving-maas-platform-in-guangzhou.html", "https://newatlas.com/automotive/autox-fully-driverless-robotaxi-shenzhen-public/", "https://www.caixinglobal.com/2021-04-30/baidu-to-roll-out-driverless-robotaxis-in-beijing-in-may-101704549.html", "https://www.caixinglobal.com/2021-02-11/weride-wins-chinas-first-license-for-self-driving-ride-hailing-service-101663190.html", "https://www.autoweek.com/news/technology/a36354137/beijing-olympics-robotaxi-china/", "https://vnexplorer.net/robotaxi-race-heats-up-in-china-autox-unveils-superior-upgrade-2-a2021249509.html", "https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/04/fully-driverless-cars-are-being-tested-in-china-for-the-first-time.html", "https://www.theverge.com/2021/1/27/22252944/baidu-driverless-cars-test-permit-california-dmv", "https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56178802", "https://www.forbeschina.com/business/%E5%95%86%E4%B8%9A/55153"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2020-12-17 | 0.0 | [["2020-12-18", 0.41], ["2020-12-18", 0.41], ["2020-12-19", 0.015], ["2020-12-19", 0.385], ["2020-12-19", 0.3], ["2020-12-19", 0.75], ["2020-12-19", 0.785], ["2020-12-20", 0.82], ["2020-12-20", 0.82], ["2020-12-20", 0.8], ["2020-12-21", 0.75], ["2020-12-21", 0.75], ["2020-12-21", 0.75], ["2020-12-22", 0.75], ["2020-12-22", 0.75], ["2020-12-23", 0.75], ["2020-12-23", 0.6], ["2020-12-23", 0.45], ["2020-12-23", 0.45], ["2020-12-23", 0.45], ["2020-12-23", 0.45], ["2020-12-23", 0.4], ["2020-12-23", 0.35], ["2020-12-23", 0.35], ["2020-12-23", 0.35], ["2020-12-23", 0.325], ["2020-12-23", 0.325], ["2020-12-23", 0.35], ["2020-12-24", 0.35], ["2020-12-24", 0.35], ["2020-12-24", 0.35], ["2020-12-24", 0.325], ["2020-12-24", 0.3], ["2020-12-24", 0.25], ["2020-12-25", 0.25], ["2020-12-25", 0.25], ["2020-12-25", 0.25], ["2020-12-25", 0.225], ["2020-12-25", 0.2], ["2020-12-26", 0.2], ["2020-12-26", 0.2], ["2020-12-26", 0.2], 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["2021-09-28", 0.02], ["2021-09-29", 0.02], ["2021-09-30", 0.02], ["2021-10-04", 0.02], ["2021-10-06", 0.015], ["2021-10-09", 0.02], ["2021-10-10", 0.015], ["2021-10-11", 0.015], ["2021-10-13", 0.01], ["2021-10-15", 0.01], ["2021-10-17", 0.01], ["2021-10-22", 0.01], ["2021-10-25", 0.01], ["2021-10-26", 0.01], ["2021-10-28", 0.01], ["2021-11-04", 0.01], ["2021-11-05", 0.01], ["2021-11-07", 0.0], ["2021-11-09", 0.0], ["2021-11-09", 0.0], ["2021-11-10", 0.0], ["2021-11-11", 0.0], ["2021-11-12", 0.0], ["2021-11-13", 0.0], ["2021-11-15", 0.0], ["2021-11-18", 0.0], ["2021-11-22", 0.0], ["2021-11-23", 0.0], ["2021-11-28", 0.0], ["2021-11-30", 0.0], ["2021-12-02", 0.0], ["2021-12-04", 0.0], ["2021-12-08", 0.0], ["2021-12-13", 0.0], ["2021-12-16", 0.0], ["2021-12-17", 0.0], ["2021-12-20", 0.0], ["2021-12-23", 0.0], ["2021-12-25", 0.0], ["2021-12-26", 0.0], ["2021-12-29", 0.0], ["2021-12-31", 0.0], ["2021-12-31", 0.0], ["2022-01-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1870 | True |
2023-10-01 | Before 1 October 2023, will Russia detonate a nuclear device in Ukrainian territory, territorial waters, or airspace? | binary |
<p>Amid successful counterattacks by Ukrainian forces in the east of the country, there are concerns that Russia could resort to using nuclear weapons (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2022/11/14/three-scenarios-for-how-war-in-ukraine-could-play-out" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63173443" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/oct/11/russia-ukraine-war-putin-live-news-missile-strikes-g7-zelenskiy-crisis-talks-latest-updates" target="_blank">Guardian</a>). A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (<a href="https://www.mass.gov/service-details/nuclear-regulatory-commission-nrc-fact-sheet-on-dirty-bombs" target="_blank">Mass.gov</a>). For the purposes of this question, "Ukraine" includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-10-01 | gjopen | ["https://jamestown.org/program/putins-nuclear-provocations-proliferate/", "https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-nuclear-missile-exercise-putin-ukraine-b2310321.html", "https://unherd.com/2023/06/why-putin-will-use-nuclear-weapons/", "https://michaelmcfaul.substack.com/p/the-guessing-game-about-what-putin", "https://defence24.pl/wojna-na-ukrainie-raport-specjalny-defence24/biden-odwiedza-ukraine-i-polske-historyczna-wizyta-i-deklaracja-pomocy-na-zywo", "https://apnews.com/article/russia-belarus-nuclear-weapons-2d9584534da25c00c56dbf7b14694e0e", "https://apnews.com/article/spain-us-b52-hydrogen-bomb-plutonium-accident-palomares-dd5e024d2cd5247a1dba0195600b188d", "https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/regime-change-in-moscow-definitely-the-goal-joly-says", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/25/wagner-group-boss-forces-leaving-bakhmut-yevgeny-prigozhin", "https://www.dw.com/en/putin-says-russia-will-station-tactical-nuclear-weapons-in-belarus/a-65121918", "https://defence24.pl/polityka-obronna/poniedzialkowy-przeglad-mediow-z-defence24pl-leopardy-beda-gotowe-juz-w-marcu-blinken-obecnie-nie-skupiamy-sie-na-samolotach-dla-kijowa", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-says-moscow-has-deal-with-belarus-station-nuclear-weapons-there-tass-2023-03-25/", "https://lite.cnn.com/2023/07/07/politics/belarus-wagner-russia-nuclear-weapons-nato-summit/index.html", "https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/02/20/statement-from-president-joe-biden-on-travel-to-kyiv-ukraine/", "https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/7a61a964-2f83-11ee-b862-55515d26d392?shareToken=90dd38eaf2d4fb6cb95d973f718d67f0", "https://amp.france24.com/en/tv-shows/revisited/20230825-when-four-nuclear-bombs-fell-onto-spanish-village-of-palomares", "https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/03/25/putin-says-will-deploy-tactical-nuclear-weapons-in-belarus-a80615", "https://defence24.pl/wojna-na-ukrainie-raport-specjalny-defence24/setki-rosyjskich-samolotow-uderza-na-ukraine-komentarz", "https://open.spotify.com/episode/0D6xPtGaKDZ2CdGvPNUJER?si=xoClfgjTQ0GiaPpwPr97wQ&context=spotify%3Aplaylist%3A6p21dRudS9FmcyGvKWPq2R", "https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-nuclear-weapons-drills-ea08b851e6e49b99b9fd2366f890ccdf", "https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/09/elon-musk-let-russia-scare-him/675282/", "https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-734294", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/09/06/putin-nuclear-war-ukraine-russia-biden-west-armageddon-psychology-influence-operations-disinformation-manipulation/", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65932700", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-deploy-tactical-nuclear-weapons-belarus-july-putin-says-2023-06-09/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2022-11-18 | 0.0 | [["2022-11-18", 0.045], ["2022-11-18", 0.06], ["2022-11-18", 0.0522], ["2022-11-18", 0.0385], ["2022-11-19", 0.0365], ["2022-11-19", 0.03], ["2022-11-19", 0.0264], ["2022-11-19", 0.0345], ["2022-11-19", 0.0436], ["2022-11-19", 0.0416], ["2022-11-19", 0.0385], ["2022-11-19", 0.0381], ["2022-11-19", 0.0485], ["2022-11-19", 0.0496], ["2022-11-19", 0.0571], ["2022-11-19", 0.0551], ["2022-11-19", 0.0556], ["2022-11-20", 0.0567], ["2022-11-20", 0.0726], ["2022-11-20", 0.0634], ["2022-11-20", 0.0613], ["2022-11-20", 0.0601], ["2022-11-20", 0.062], ["2022-11-21", 0.0606], ["2022-11-21", 0.0613], ["2022-11-21", 0.06], ["2022-11-21", 0.0671], ["2022-11-21", 0.0752], ["2022-11-22", 0.0799], ["2022-11-22", 0.0885], ["2022-11-23", 0.0949], ["2022-11-23", 0.092], ["2022-11-23", 0.0915], ["2022-11-23", 0.1002], ["2022-11-23", 0.1169], ["2022-11-23", 0.1157], ["2022-11-23", 0.1223], ["2022-11-23", 0.1163], ["2022-11-24", 0.1139], ["2022-11-24", 0.1085], ["2022-11-24", 0.1039], 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0.0331], ["2023-09-21", 0.0329], ["2023-09-21", 0.0263], ["2023-09-22", 0.0269], ["2023-09-24", 0.0235], ["2023-09-24", 0.0233], ["2023-09-24", 0.023], ["2023-09-24", 0.0226], ["2023-09-25", 0.0217], ["2023-09-25", 0.0197], ["2023-09-25", 0.0193], ["2023-09-26", 0.0191], ["2023-09-27", 0.019], ["2023-09-28", 0.0184], ["2023-09-28", 0.0176], ["2023-09-30", 0.0124], ["2023-10-01", 0.0122]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2634 | True |
2021-12-07 | Before 1 September 2022, will the government of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) officially announce a change to its weekend? | binary |
<p>In 2006, the UAE changed its weekend from Thursday-Friday to Friday-Saturday to have more business hours consistent with Europe and elsewhere around the world (<a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4991068.stm" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.esquireme.com/brief/news/53862-is-the-uae-switching-to-a-new-saturday-sunday-weekend" target="_blank">Esquire Middle East</a>). There has been speculation that there could be additional changes coming, though the government has denied any plans (<a href="https://www.arabnews.com/node/1927906/offbeat" target="_blank">Arab News</a>, <a href="https://www.gulftoday.ae/news/2021/09/13/is-uae-planning-to-change-weekend" target="_blank">Gulf Today</a>). Any calendar change, including an official policy for a "half-day" on Friday, for example, would count. The date a change would take effect would be immaterial, but a date the change would take effect must be included in the announcement.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-12-07 | gjopen | ["https://gulfnews.com/uae/two-day-weekend-which-day-to-club-with-friday-1.362545", "https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/money/2021/08/24/is-a-four-day-working-week-possible-in-the-uae-pocketful-of-dirhams/", "https://twitter.com/UAEmediaoffice/status/1468129958019182592?s=20", "https://www.arabnews.com/node/1927906/offbeat"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2021-10-01 | 1.0 | [["2021-10-01", 0.0], ["2021-10-01", 0.0], ["2021-10-02", 0.0], ["2021-10-02", 0.005], ["2021-10-02", 0.01], ["2021-10-02", 0.015], ["2021-10-03", 0.02], ["2021-10-03", 0.015], ["2021-10-03", 0.02], ["2021-10-03", 0.01], ["2021-10-03", 0.025], ["2021-10-04", 0.01], ["2021-10-05", 0.045], ["2021-10-05", 0.045], ["2021-10-06", 0.035], ["2021-10-06", 0.035], ["2021-10-06", 0.035], ["2021-10-07", 0.035], ["2021-10-07", 0.035], ["2021-10-07", 0.045], ["2021-10-07", 0.04], ["2021-10-08", 0.045], ["2021-10-08", 0.05], ["2021-10-09", 0.04], ["2021-10-09", 0.035], ["2021-10-11", 0.03], ["2021-10-11", 0.025], ["2021-10-11", 0.02], ["2021-10-12", 0.02], ["2021-10-12", 0.005], ["2021-10-12", 0.005], ["2021-10-14", 0.005], ["2021-10-15", 0.01], ["2021-10-18", 0.005], ["2021-10-21", 0.01], ["2021-10-24", 0.01], ["2021-10-24", 0.01], ["2021-10-24", 0.01], ["2021-10-27", 0.01], ["2021-10-28", 0.02], ["2021-10-29", 0.015], ["2021-10-29", 0.015], ["2021-11-12", 0.015], ["2021-11-15", 0.015], ["2021-11-18", 0.005], ["2021-11-20", 0.005], ["2021-11-24", 0.005], ["2021-11-28", 0.01], ["2021-11-30", 0.01], ["2021-12-01", 0.005], ["2021-12-06", 0.005], ["2021-12-07", 0.005], ["2021-12-07", 0.005], ["2021-12-07", 0.005]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2145 | True |
2020-06-27 | Before 27 June 2020, will the weekly average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances in the U.S. fall below 3.00%? | binary |
<p>Outcome will be determined by data from the Mortgage Bankers Association Weekly Applications Survey press release, generally published five days after the week's end at <a href="https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/newsroom" target="_blank">Mortgage Bankers Association</a>. For the week ending 6 March 2020, the rate was 3.47% (<a href="https://www.mba.org/2020-press-releases/march/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey-mba-doubles-2020-refinance-originations-forecast" target="_blank">Mortgage Bankers Association</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>
| 2020-07-01 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2020-03-12 | 0.0 | [["2020-03-13", 0.75], ["2020-03-13", 0.375], ["2020-03-13", 0.375], ["2020-03-13", 0.375], ["2020-03-13", 0.3], ["2020-03-14", 0.25], ["2020-03-14", 0.375], ["2020-03-14", 0.375], ["2020-03-14", 0.375], ["2020-03-14", 0.4], ["2020-03-14", 0.4], ["2020-03-14", 0.4], ["2020-03-14", 0.25], ["2020-03-14", 0.25], ["2020-03-14", 0.205], ["2020-03-14", 0.25], ["2020-03-14", 0.25], ["2020-03-15", 0.23], ["2020-03-15", 0.25], ["2020-03-15", 0.35], ["2020-03-15", 0.3], ["2020-03-15", 0.5], ["2020-03-15", 0.5], ["2020-03-15", 0.565], ["2020-03-15", 0.615], ["2020-03-16", 0.65], ["2020-03-16", 0.66], ["2020-03-16", 0.66], ["2020-03-16", 0.66], ["2020-03-16", 0.705], ["2020-03-16", 0.705], ["2020-03-16", 0.75], ["2020-03-16", 0.8], ["2020-03-16", 0.75], ["2020-03-16", 0.8], ["2020-03-16", 0.85], ["2020-03-17", 0.85], ["2020-03-17", 0.85], ["2020-03-17", 0.85], ["2020-03-17", 0.75], ["2020-03-17", 0.75], 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2021-02-15 | Will Russia and the People's Republic of China (PRC) conduct any joint naval exercises before 1 March 2021? | binary |
<p>Russia and China have engaged in joint naval exercises in the past, both bilaterally and with other nations (<a href="https://thediplomat.com/2019/04/china-russia-kick-off-bilateral-naval-exercise-joint-sea/" target="_blank">Diplomat</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/27/asia/china-russia-iran-military-drills-intl-hnk/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>). Both Russia and the PRC conducting joint naval exercises with one or more other navies would also count.</p><p></p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 13 November 2020</span>: The joint exercises must include both Russia and China to count.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-02-15 | gjopen | ["https://www.dawn.com/news/1606284", "https://en.dailypakistan.com.pk/06-Feb-2021/pakistan-navy-releases-promo-in-connection-with-aman-naval-exercise", "https://www.islamabadscene.com/pakistan-navys-biggest-exercise-aman-21-begins-45-countries-participating/", "https://www.rt.com/russia/509271-navy-drills-pakistan-nato/", "https://gandhara.rferl.org/a/russia-china-us-navies-pakistan-aman-2021/31099814.htmlX", "https://twitter.com/mod_russia/status/1360252983678795787?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1360252983678795787%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.islamabadscene.com%2Fpakistan-navys-biggest-exercise-aman-21-begins-45-countries-participating%2F", "https://gulfnews.com/world/asia/pakistan/aman-21-international-naval-exercise-kicks-off-in-pakistan-1.77156331", "https://www.facebook.com/XinhuaNewsAgency/posts/the-russian-navy-will-join-the-aman-2021-drills-off-the-coast-of-pakistan-with-n/4611956642165077/", "https://jamestown.org/program/the-strategic-implications-of-chinese-iranian-russian-naval-drills-in-the-indian-ocean/", "https://en.dailypakistan.com.pk/24-Jan-2021/pakistan-navy-releases-first-promo-for-aman-2021-maritime-peace-exercises", "https://eurasiantimes.com/pakistan-to-host-the-historic-naval-drills-between-russian-nato-countries/", "https://orientalreview.org/2020/12/15/aman-2021-may-strengthen-cooperation-among-friendly-nations/", "https://www.reuters.com/article/russia-military-iran-china/russia-china-and-iran-to-hold-joint-naval-drills-in-indian-ocean-soon-ria-idUSKBN2A81Q8", "https://bit.ly/3r219YK", "https://bit.ly/2NuWRKW", "https://dfnc.ru/en/world-news/exercise-aman-2021-kicks-off-today/", "http://eng.chinamil.com.cn/view/2021-02/02/content_9978854.htm", "https://www.voanews.com/south-central-asia/pakistan-host-russia-nato-members-joint-naval-drill", "https://www.dawn.com/news/1607076", "https://navalnews.net/russian-black-sea-fleet-to-participate-in-aman-2021-naval-exercise-in-pakistan/", "https://en.dailypakistan.com.pk/23-Jan-2021/aman-2021-pakistan-navy-set-to-hold-7th-multinational-maritime-exercise-next-month", "https://reut.rs/2YI8a52", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3IXjqWi2Ci8", "https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2021/02/11/multinational-exercise-aman-2021-together-for-peace/", "https://en.dailypakistan.com.pk/10-Dec-2020/russia-to-join-pakistan-s-aman-2021-navy-drills-with-nato-countries#:~:text=MOSCOW%20%E2%80%93%20Russian%20will%20take%20part,February%2011%2D16%2C%202021"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2020-11-09 | 1.0 | [["2020-11-10", 0.06], ["2020-11-10", 0.105], ["2020-11-10", 0.15], ["2020-11-10", 0.105], ["2020-11-10", 0.06], ["2020-11-10", 0.055], ["2020-11-10", 0.05], ["2020-11-10", 0.055], ["2020-11-10", 0.05], ["2020-11-11", 0.055], ["2020-11-11", 0.05], ["2020-11-11", 0.05], ["2020-11-11", 0.045], ["2020-11-11", 0.05], ["2020-11-11", 0.05], ["2020-11-11", 0.055], ["2020-11-11", 0.055], ["2020-11-11", 0.05], ["2020-11-11", 0.05], 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["2021-02-15", 0.965], ["2021-02-15", 0.965]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1833 | True |
2022-12-17 | Before 17 December 2022, will Saudi Arabia publicly announce that it will begin accepting yuan as payment for oil from China? | binary |
<p>Saudi Arabia and the People's Republic of China are reportedly discussing the use of Chinese yuan as payment for Saudi oil (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-considers-accepting-yuan-instead-of-dollars-for-chinese-oil-sales-11647351541" target="_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>, <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/598257-saudi-arabia-considers-accepting-yuan-instead-of-dollar-for-oil" target="_blank">The Hill</a>, <a href="https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/03/saudi-considering-chinas-yuan-oil-purchases" target="_blank">Al-Monitor</a>). The question would close upon a public announcement from Saudi Arabia. An announcement would not have to indicate that Saudi Arabia would exclusively accept yuan for payment. The date any agreement to accept payment in yuan would take effect is immaterial, but conditional and/or indeterminate announcements (e.g., if conditionals are met in the future, at some point in the future) would not count.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2022-12-17 | gjopen | ["https://www.reuters.com/world/us/exclusive-us-weighs-possible-resumption-offensive-arms-sales-saudis-sources-2022-07-11/", "https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/dollar-vs-yuan-china-buy-gulf-oil-energy-rmb-currency-2022-12", "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-xi-tells-gulf-nations-use-shanghai-exchange-yuan-energy-deals-2022-12-09/?taid=63934c4d6d01160001836ec0&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter", "https://themedialine.org/life-lines/chinese-president-due-in-saudi-arabia-to-tighten-economic-ties/", "https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2022/06/03/saudi-arabia-shows-biden-cant-have-it-all-00037167", "https://www.reuters.com/world/saudi-arabia-gathers-chinas-xi-with-arab-leaders-new-era-ties-2022-12-09/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-20/israel-adds-yuan-to-206-billion-reserves-in-philosophy-change", "https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/saudi-arabia-discussion-join-brics", "https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/China-and-Gulf-states-share-interest-in-taking-digital-yuan-global", "https://www.arabnews.com/node/1682011", "https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/10/middleeast/xi-china-saudi-arabia-visit-five-takeaways-mime-intl/index.html", "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-xi-tells-gulf-nations-use-shanghai-exchange-yuan-energy-deals-2022-12-09/", "https://frontierindia.com/china-announces-oil-and-natural-gas-trading-in-yuan-during-saudi-visit/", "https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Saudi-Arabia-Considers-Ditching-The-Dollar-For-Chinese-Oil-Sales.html", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/12/us-is-not-going-anywhere-as-china-and-saudi-bolster-ties.html", "https://www.reuters.com/world/saudi-china-energy-trade-investment-ties-2022-12-09/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bzOP4CErX-w&t=234s"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2022-04-01 | 0.0 | [["2022-04-01", 0.705], ["2022-04-01", 0.7025], ["2022-04-01", 0.5933333333333334], ["2022-04-01", 0.6528571428571428], ["2022-04-01", 0.6388888888888888], ["2022-04-01", 0.62], ["2022-04-01", 0.631], ["2022-04-01", 0.643], ["2022-04-01", 0.496], ["2022-04-01", 0.512], ["2022-04-02", 0.546], ["2022-04-02", 0.455], ["2022-04-02", 0.45], ["2022-04-02", 0.379], ["2022-04-03", 0.414], ["2022-04-03", 0.4309090909090909], ["2022-04-03", 0.42], ["2022-04-03", 0.36833333333333335], ["2022-04-03", 0.3776923076923077], ["2022-04-03", 0.3730769230769231], ["2022-04-04", 0.3457142857142857], ["2022-04-04", 0.342], ["2022-04-04", 0.355625], ["2022-04-04", 0.34875], ["2022-04-04", 0.366875], ["2022-04-05", 0.39625], ["2022-04-05", 0.3776470588235294], ["2022-04-05", 0.3511764705882353], ["2022-04-05", 0.3422222222222222], ["2022-04-05", 0.38], ["2022-04-05", 0.4073684210526316], 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0.0862], ["2022-12-05", 0.086], ["2022-12-06", 0.0857], ["2022-12-07", 0.0845], ["2022-12-07", 0.0831], ["2022-12-07", 0.0813], ["2022-12-08", 0.0889], ["2022-12-09", 0.0802], ["2022-12-09", 0.0808], ["2022-12-10", 0.0853], ["2022-12-10", 0.1013], ["2022-12-10", 0.0898], ["2022-12-10", 0.0873], ["2022-12-10", 0.0905], ["2022-12-10", 0.0853], ["2022-12-10", 0.0755], ["2022-12-10", 0.0755], ["2022-12-11", 0.0766], ["2022-12-11", 0.0765], ["2022-12-11", 0.0734], ["2022-12-11", 0.0735], ["2022-12-12", 0.0721], ["2022-12-12", 0.07], ["2022-12-12", 0.07], ["2022-12-13", 0.069], ["2022-12-13", 0.0689], ["2022-12-14", 0.0682], ["2022-12-14", 0.0668], ["2022-12-15", 0.0622], ["2022-12-15", 0.0621], ["2022-12-16", 0.0613], ["2022-12-16", 0.0578], ["2022-12-16", 0.0568], ["2022-12-17", 0.0565], ["2022-12-17", 0.0494]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2335 | True |
2020-11-03 | Will California voters approve Proposition 22 (App-Based Drivers as Contractors and Labor Policies Initiative)? | binary |
<p>After California passed a law creating a new test to for determining whether workers can be classified as independent contractors, firms like Uber and Lyft are supporting Proposition 22 on the state ballot this November (<a href="https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/512137-california-ruling-against-uber-lyft-threatens-to-upend-gig-economy" target="_blank">The Hill</a>, <a href="https://www.dailycal.org/2020/08/12/ca-prop-22-will-determine-fate-of-app-based-drivers/" target="_blank">Daily Californian</a>, <a href="https://www.oag.ca.gov/system/files/initiatives/pdfs/19-0026%20%28App-Based%20Drivers%29.pdf" target="_blank">CA Office of Attorney General</a>). Proposition 22 would change the law to consider app-based drivers to be independent contractors (<a href="https://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_22,_App-Based_Drivers_as_Contractors_and_Labor_Policies_Initiative_(2020)" target="_blank">Ballotpedia</a>).</p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2020-11-05 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2020-08-18 | 1.0 | [["2020-08-18", 0.5], ["2020-08-18", 0.325], ["2020-08-18", 0.15], ["2020-08-18", 0.15], ["2020-08-18", 0.33], ["2020-08-18", 0.2], ["2020-08-18", 0.35], ["2020-08-18", 0.4], ["2020-08-18", 0.365], ["2020-08-19", 0.33], ["2020-08-19", 0.365], ["2020-08-19", 0.365], ["2020-08-19", 0.365], ["2020-08-19", 0.365], ["2020-08-19", 0.365], ["2020-08-19", 0.365], ["2020-08-19", 0.365], ["2020-08-19", 0.365], ["2020-08-19", 0.41], ["2020-08-19", 0.41], ["2020-08-19", 0.345], ["2020-08-20", 0.495], ["2020-08-20", 0.51], ["2020-08-20", 0.58], ["2020-08-20", 0.58], ["2020-08-20", 0.64], ["2020-08-20", 0.58], ["2020-08-20", 0.64], ["2020-08-20", 0.64], ["2020-08-20", 0.685], ["2020-08-20", 0.745], ["2020-08-20", 0.745], ["2020-08-20", 0.745], ["2020-08-20", 0.795], ["2020-08-20", 0.745], ["2020-08-21", 0.745], ["2020-08-21", 0.72], ["2020-08-21", 0.77], ["2020-08-21", 0.82], ["2020-08-21", 0.66], ["2020-08-21", 0.615], ["2020-08-21", 0.56], ["2020-08-21", 0.56], ["2020-08-22", 0.605], ["2020-08-22", 0.58], ["2020-08-22", 0.66], ["2020-08-22", 0.5], ["2020-08-22", 0.5], ["2020-08-22", 0.575], ["2020-08-22", 0.655], ["2020-08-23", 0.665], ["2020-08-23", 0.715], ["2020-08-23", 0.66], ["2020-08-23", 0.715], ["2020-08-24", 0.715], ["2020-08-24", 0.715], ["2020-08-24", 0.67], ["2020-08-25", 0.67], ["2020-08-25", 0.67], ["2020-08-25", 0.67], ["2020-08-26", 0.66], ["2020-08-26", 0.66], ["2020-08-26", 0.66], ["2020-08-26", 0.66], ["2020-08-27", 0.675], ["2020-08-27", 0.675], ["2020-08-27", 0.675], ["2020-08-28", 0.67], ["2020-08-28", 0.68], ["2020-08-30", 0.73], ["2020-08-30", 0.68], ["2020-08-30", 0.68], ["2020-08-31", 0.68], ["2020-08-31", 0.68], ["2020-09-01", 0.675], ["2020-09-01", 0.68], ["2020-09-02", 0.68], ["2020-09-03", 0.68], ["2020-09-03", 0.68], ["2020-09-04", 0.68], ["2020-09-04", 0.68], ["2020-09-06", 0.68], ["2020-09-06", 0.695], ["2020-09-07", 0.695], ["2020-09-08", 0.71], ["2020-09-08", 0.71], ["2020-09-08", 0.71], ["2020-09-09", 0.71], ["2020-09-09", 0.71], ["2020-09-10", 0.71], ["2020-09-10", 0.71], ["2020-09-11", 0.71], ["2020-09-11", 0.71], ["2020-09-12", 0.71], ["2020-09-12", 0.71], ["2020-09-15", 0.7], ["2020-09-15", 0.7], ["2020-09-15", 0.7], ["2020-09-15", 0.7], ["2020-09-16", 0.65], ["2020-09-16", 0.65], ["2020-09-17", 0.69], ["2020-09-17", 0.7], ["2020-09-18", 0.73], ["2020-09-18", 0.74], ["2020-09-19", 0.74], ["2020-09-20", 0.725], ["2020-09-20", 0.725], ["2020-09-22", 0.7], ["2020-09-22", 0.7], ["2020-09-22", 0.725], ["2020-09-22", 0.725], ["2020-09-23", 0.725], ["2020-09-23", 0.725], ["2020-09-24", 0.725], ["2020-09-24", 0.725], ["2020-09-25", 0.75], ["2020-09-25", 0.75], ["2020-09-25", 0.76], ["2020-09-26", 0.76], ["2020-09-26", 0.76], ["2020-09-28", 0.75], ["2020-09-28", 0.75], ["2020-09-28", 0.75], ["2020-09-29", 0.7], ["2020-09-29", 0.65], ["2020-09-29", 0.65], ["2020-09-29", 0.65], ["2020-09-30", 0.65], ["2020-09-30", 0.65], ["2020-10-01", 0.65], ["2020-10-01", 0.65], ["2020-10-02", 0.65], ["2020-10-02", 0.65], ["2020-10-03", 0.65], ["2020-10-03", 0.65], ["2020-10-04", 0.65], ["2020-10-05", 0.65], ["2020-10-05", 0.65], ["2020-10-05", 0.65], ["2020-10-05", 0.65], ["2020-10-06", 0.65], ["2020-10-07", 0.65], ["2020-10-07", 0.65], ["2020-10-08", 0.65], ["2020-10-09", 0.65], ["2020-10-10", 0.65], ["2020-10-10", 0.65], ["2020-10-10", 0.65], ["2020-10-10", 0.63], ["2020-10-10", 0.61], ["2020-10-11", 0.61], ["2020-10-11", 0.61], ["2020-10-11", 0.61], ["2020-10-12", 0.61], ["2020-10-13", 0.6], ["2020-10-13", 0.61], ["2020-10-14", 0.6], ["2020-10-14", 0.605], ["2020-10-14", 0.605], ["2020-10-14", 0.605], ["2020-10-14", 0.605], ["2020-10-14", 0.605], ["2020-10-15", 0.59], ["2020-10-15", 0.6], ["2020-10-15", 0.6], ["2020-10-15", 0.6], ["2020-10-16", 0.605], ["2020-10-16", 0.605], ["2020-10-16", 0.605], ["2020-10-16", 0.605], ["2020-10-16", 0.62], ["2020-10-17", 0.63], ["2020-10-17", 0.65], ["2020-10-17", 0.66], ["2020-10-17", 0.67], ["2020-10-18", 0.685], ["2020-10-18", 0.685], ["2020-10-18", 0.685], ["2020-10-19", 0.685], ["2020-10-20", 0.7], ["2020-10-20", 0.7], ["2020-10-21", 0.7], ["2020-10-21", 0.7], ["2020-10-21", 0.7], ["2020-10-21", 0.7], ["2020-10-22", 0.715], ["2020-10-22", 0.74], ["2020-10-22", 0.74], ["2020-10-22", 0.75], ["2020-10-23", 0.75], ["2020-10-23", 0.75], ["2020-10-23", 0.75], ["2020-10-24", 0.75], ["2020-10-24", 0.75], ["2020-10-24", 0.75], ["2020-10-25", 0.75], ["2020-10-25", 0.75], ["2020-10-25", 0.75], ["2020-10-25", 0.75], ["2020-10-25", 0.755], ["2020-10-25", 0.765], ["2020-10-25", 0.785], ["2020-10-25", 0.8], ["2020-10-26", 0.8], ["2020-10-26", 0.8], ["2020-10-26", 0.8], ["2020-10-26", 0.8], ["2020-10-26", 0.8], ["2020-10-27", 0.8], ["2020-10-27", 0.8], ["2020-10-28", 0.8], ["2020-10-28", 0.8], ["2020-10-29", 0.8], ["2020-10-29", 0.8], ["2020-10-29", 0.8], ["2020-10-30", 0.8], ["2020-10-30", 0.8], ["2020-10-30", 0.8], ["2020-10-30", 0.8], ["2020-10-30", 0.8], ["2020-10-31", 0.8], ["2020-10-31", 0.8], ["2020-11-01", 0.8], ["2020-11-01", 0.8], ["2020-11-02", 0.8], ["2020-11-02", 0.8], ["2020-11-02", 0.8], ["2020-11-02", 0.8], ["2020-11-02", 0.8], ["2020-11-02", 0.815], ["2020-11-02", 0.815], ["2020-11-02", 0.8], ["2020-11-03", 0.8], ["2020-11-03", 0.8], ["2020-11-03", 0.8]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1746 | True |
2020-08-05 | Before 5 August 2020, will Mark Esper cease to be the U.S. Secretary of Defense? | binary |
<p>Defense Secretary Esper's future in the Trump Administration is in question after developments related to protests in the wake of the death of George Floyd (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-this-week/2020/06/06/politics-this-week" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2020/06/04/under-fire-from-all-sides-espers-next-move-may-dictate-his-future/" target="_blank">Defense News</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/04/esper-white-house-replacement-302174" target="_blank">Politico</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p>
</p>
| 2020-08-05 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2020-06-05 | 0.0 | [["2020-06-05", 0.585], ["2020-06-05", 0.7], ["2020-06-05", 0.73], ["2020-06-05", 0.73], ["2020-06-05", 0.67], ["2020-06-05", 0.765], ["2020-06-05", 0.705], ["2020-06-05", 0.75], ["2020-06-05", 0.75], ["2020-06-06", 0.77], ["2020-06-06", 0.75], ["2020-06-06", 0.75], ["2020-06-06", 0.75], ["2020-06-06", 0.8], ["2020-06-06", 0.8], ["2020-06-06", 0.625], ["2020-06-06", 0.77], ["2020-06-06", 0.79], ["2020-06-06", 0.795], ["2020-06-06", 0.795], ["2020-06-06", 0.79], ["2020-06-06", 0.675], ["2020-06-06", 0.675], ["2020-06-07", 0.79], ["2020-06-07", 0.745], ["2020-06-07", 0.7], ["2020-06-07", 0.675], ["2020-06-07", 0.65], ["2020-06-07", 0.585], ["2020-06-07", 0.65], ["2020-06-07", 0.585], ["2020-06-07", 0.575], ["2020-06-07", 0.625], ["2020-06-07", 0.6], ["2020-06-07", 0.6], ["2020-06-07", 0.65], ["2020-06-07", 0.5], ["2020-06-08", 0.5], ["2020-06-08", 0.5], ["2020-06-08", 0.5], ["2020-06-08", 0.5], ["2020-06-08", 0.5], ["2020-06-08", 0.5], ["2020-06-08", 0.475], ["2020-06-08", 0.5], ["2020-06-08", 0.475], ["2020-06-08", 0.43], ["2020-06-09", 0.41], ["2020-06-09", 0.41], ["2020-06-09", 0.39], ["2020-06-09", 0.39], ["2020-06-09", 0.4], ["2020-06-09", 0.39], ["2020-06-09", 0.4], ["2020-06-09", 0.395], ["2020-06-09", 0.38], ["2020-06-10", 0.37], ["2020-06-10", 0.375], ["2020-06-10", 0.38], ["2020-06-10", 0.38], ["2020-06-10", 0.39], ["2020-06-10", 0.39], ["2020-06-10", 0.375], ["2020-06-11", 0.39], ["2020-06-11", 0.38], ["2020-06-11", 0.38], ["2020-06-11", 0.4], ["2020-06-11", 0.4], ["2020-06-11", 0.4], ["2020-06-11", 0.4], ["2020-06-11", 0.385], ["2020-06-11", 0.37], ["2020-06-11", 0.385], ["2020-06-11", 0.385], ["2020-06-11", 0.4], ["2020-06-11", 0.37], ["2020-06-11", 0.385], ["2020-06-11", 0.37], ["2020-06-11", 0.37], ["2020-06-11", 0.385], ["2020-06-11", 0.45], ["2020-06-12", 0.45], ["2020-06-12", 0.475], ["2020-06-12", 0.45], ["2020-06-12", 0.45], ["2020-06-12", 0.45], 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["2020-07-24", 0.03], ["2020-07-24", 0.02], ["2020-07-24", 0.02], ["2020-07-24", 0.02], ["2020-07-24", 0.02], ["2020-07-24", 0.02], ["2020-07-24", 0.02], ["2020-07-24", 0.02], ["2020-07-25", 0.02], ["2020-07-25", 0.02], ["2020-07-25", 0.02], ["2020-07-25", 0.02], ["2020-07-25", 0.02], ["2020-07-26", 0.02], ["2020-07-26", 0.015], ["2020-07-26", 0.02], ["2020-07-26", 0.02], ["2020-07-26", 0.015], ["2020-07-26", 0.01], ["2020-07-27", 0.01], ["2020-07-27", 0.01], ["2020-07-27", 0.01], ["2020-07-27", 0.01], ["2020-07-27", 0.01], ["2020-07-27", 0.01], ["2020-07-27", 0.01], ["2020-07-28", 0.01], ["2020-07-28", 0.01], ["2020-07-28", 0.01], ["2020-07-28", 0.01], ["2020-07-28", 0.01], ["2020-07-28", 0.01], ["2020-07-28", 0.01], ["2020-07-29", 0.01], ["2020-07-29", 0.01], ["2020-07-29", 0.01], ["2020-07-29", 0.01], ["2020-07-29", 0.01], ["2020-07-29", 0.01], ["2020-07-30", 0.01], ["2020-07-30", 0.01], ["2020-07-30", 0.0], ["2020-07-30", 0.0], ["2020-07-30", 0.0], ["2020-07-30", 0.0], ["2020-07-30", 0.0], ["2020-07-30", 0.0], ["2020-07-30", 0.0], ["2020-07-30", 0.0], ["2020-07-30", 0.0], ["2020-07-30", 0.0], ["2020-07-31", 0.0], ["2020-07-31", 0.0], ["2020-07-31", 0.0], ["2020-07-31", 0.0], ["2020-07-31", 0.0], ["2020-08-01", 0.0], ["2020-08-01", 0.0], ["2020-08-02", 0.0], ["2020-08-02", 0.0], ["2020-08-02", 0.0], ["2020-08-02", 0.0], ["2020-08-02", 0.0], ["2020-08-03", 0.0], ["2020-08-03", 0.0], ["2020-08-03", 0.0], ["2020-08-03", 0.0], ["2020-08-03", 0.0], ["2020-08-03", 0.0], ["2020-08-03", 0.0], ["2020-08-04", 0.0], ["2020-08-04", 0.0], ["2020-08-04", 0.0], ["2020-08-04", 0.0], ["2020-08-04", 0.0], ["2020-08-04", 0.0], ["2020-08-05", 0.0], ["2020-08-05", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1650 | True |
2023-02-28 | Will the value of the euro to Turkish lira exchange rate be higher than 22.000 on 28 February 2023? | binary |
<p>The outcome will be determined using data as first reported by ExchangeRates.org.uk for 28 February 2023 (<a href="https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/EUR-TRY-exchange-rate-history.html" target="_blank">Exchangerates.org.uk</a>, see "Table of 1 Euro to Turkish Lira Exchange Rate").</p><p><i><b>NOTE</b>: Questions in the Fujitsu Hivemind Challenge have been partly crowdsourced through a research project and consequently may have experimental framings.
</i></p><p>
</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-03-01 | gjopen | ["https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Producer-Price-Index-of-Agricultural-Products-December-2022-49734", "https://enagrup.org/?hl=en"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2023-01-16 | 0.0 | [["2023-01-16", 0.05], ["2023-01-16", 0.025], ["2023-01-17", 0.07], ["2023-01-17", 0.2525], ["2023-01-17", 0.212], ["2023-01-17", 0.1767], ["2023-01-17", 0.1514], ["2023-01-17", 0.1325], ["2023-01-17", 0.1956], ["2023-01-17", 0.183], ["2023-01-17", 0.1682], ["2023-01-17", 0.1592], ["2023-01-17", 0.1585], ["2023-01-17", 0.1629], ["2023-01-17", 0.1587], ["2023-01-17", 0.1488], ["2023-01-17", 0.1459], ["2023-01-18", 0.1389], ["2023-01-18", 0.1316], ["2023-01-18", 0.125], ["2023-01-18", 0.1252], ["2023-01-18", 0.1195], ["2023-01-18", 0.1186], ["2023-01-18", 0.0823], ["2023-01-18", 0.0823], ["2023-01-18", 0.0861], ["2023-01-18", 0.1221], ["2023-01-19", 0.1221], ["2023-01-19", 0.1221], ["2023-01-19", 0.1172], ["2023-01-19", 0.1172], ["2023-01-20", 0.12], ["2023-01-20", 0.1135], ["2023-01-21", 0.1491], ["2023-01-21", 0.1564], ["2023-01-22", 0.1558], ["2023-01-23", 0.165], ["2023-01-23", 0.1658], ["2023-01-23", 0.17], ["2023-01-24", 0.1692], ["2023-01-25", 0.16], ["2023-01-25", 0.1592], ["2023-01-26", 0.1492], ["2023-01-27", 0.0769], ["2023-01-27", 0.0721], ["2023-01-28", 0.0664], ["2023-01-28", 0.0879], ["2023-01-28", 0.0843], ["2023-01-28", 0.0821], ["2023-01-28", 0.0793], ["2023-01-29", 0.086], ["2023-01-29", 0.0853], ["2023-01-30", 0.0867], ["2023-01-30", 0.0773], ["2023-01-31", 0.0727], ["2023-01-31", 0.0681], ["2023-01-31", 0.0825], ["2023-01-31", 0.0825], ["2023-01-31", 0.1059], ["2023-01-31", 0.1029], ["2023-01-31", 0.1028], ["2023-01-31", 0.1033], ["2023-01-31", 0.1511], ["2023-02-01", 0.1432], ["2023-02-01", 0.1453], ["2023-02-01", 0.143], ["2023-02-01", 0.1825], ["2023-02-01", 0.22], ["2023-02-01", 0.19], ["2023-02-01", 0.1865], ["2023-02-01", 0.2157], ["2023-02-01", 0.1919], ["2023-02-01", 0.2133], ["2023-02-01", 0.2082], ["2023-02-01", 0.2082], ["2023-02-01", 0.2059], ["2023-02-01", 0.197], ["2023-02-01", 0.197], ["2023-02-01", 0.1891], ["2023-02-02", 0.1975], ["2023-02-02", 0.1983], ["2023-02-02", 0.1924], ["2023-02-02", 0.2004], ["2023-02-02", 0.2054], ["2023-02-02", 0.2015], ["2023-02-04", 0.1958], ["2023-02-04", 0.1958], ["2023-02-05", 0.1917], ["2023-02-06", 0.188], ["2023-02-06", 0.1848], ["2023-02-06", 0.184], ["2023-02-06", 0.2116], ["2023-02-06", 0.176], ["2023-02-07", 0.1868], ["2023-02-08", 0.186], ["2023-02-08", 0.184], ["2023-02-08", 0.1836], ["2023-02-08", 0.1765], ["2023-02-11", 0.1762], ["2023-02-12", 0.1723], ["2023-02-13", 0.1423], ["2023-02-13", 0.1365], ["2023-02-14", 0.1327], ["2023-02-14", 0.1323], ["2023-02-15", 0.1292], ["2023-02-15", 0.1285], ["2023-02-16", 0.1285], ["2023-02-16", 0.1304], ["2023-02-16", 0.13], ["2023-02-17", 0.1262], ["2023-02-18", 0.0988], ["2023-02-18", 0.0985], ["2023-02-18", 0.0981], ["2023-02-19", 0.0962], ["2023-02-21", 0.0958], ["2023-02-21", 0.0954], ["2023-02-21", 0.095], ["2023-02-21", 0.0946], ["2023-02-22", 0.0915], ["2023-02-22", 0.0915], ["2023-02-22", 0.0915], ["2023-02-22", 0.0877], ["2023-02-23", 0.0831], ["2023-02-23", 0.085], ["2023-02-23", 0.0785], ["2023-02-24", 0.0756], ["2023-02-24", 0.0756], ["2023-02-24", 0.0941], ["2023-02-24", 0.0796], ["2023-02-24", 0.0793], ["2023-02-24", 0.0778], ["2023-02-24", 0.0656], ["2023-02-24", 0.0656], ["2023-02-24", 0.0656], ["2023-02-24", 0.0396], ["2023-02-25", 0.0396], ["2023-02-25", 0.0396], ["2023-02-25", 0.0396], ["2023-02-25", 0.0381], ["2023-02-26", 0.0381], ["2023-02-26", 0.0381], ["2023-02-26", 0.0378], ["2023-02-27", 0.0367], ["2023-02-28", 0.0354], ["2023-02-28", 0.0354]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2714 | True |
2022-05-28 | Will a team from England win the 2021-22 UEFA Champions League Final? | binary |
<p>The 2021-22 UEFA Champions League Final is scheduled for 28 May 2022 (<a href="https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/fixtures-results/format/" target="_blank">UEFA</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-05-28 | gjopen | ["https://www.laliga.com/partido/temporada-2021-2022-laliga-santander-cadiz-cf-real-madrid-37", "https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/0275-151e9aea97a2-343677ff5a8f-1000--champions-league-final-possible-line-ups-selection-dilemmas-tea/", "https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primera_Divisi%C3%B3n_de_Espa%C3%B1a_2021-22#Resultados", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1445543", "https://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/nationality-of-winner", "https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primera_Divisi%C3%B3n_de_Espa%C3%B1a_2021-22#Evoluci%C3%B3n_de_la_clasificaci%C3%B3n", "https://www.footballcritic.com/premier-league/season-1988-1989/2/82", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liverpool_0%E2%80%932_Arsenal_(1989", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/champions-league/", "https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-10726501/Villarreals-Gerard-Moreno-sustains-hamstring-injury-win-away-Getafe-Liverpool-tie.html", "https://www.si.com/soccer/liverpool/news/latest-uefa-champions-league-winner-2021-22-betting-odds", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021%E2%80%9322_UEFA_Champions_League#Bracket", "https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/61281249", "https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/soccer/uefa-champions-cup-odds/", "https://www.theguardian.com/football/2022/may/16/virgil-van-dijk-and-mohamed-salah-to-miss-liverpools-trip-to-southampton", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1276090", "https://www.theguardian.com/football/2009/mar/29/arsenal-liverpool-1989-football", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sports-related_curses#UEFA_Champions_League's_curse", "https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/", "https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/60896263", "https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html", "https://sportsbookwire.usatoday.com/2022/05/04/real-madrid-vs-manchester-city-odds-picks-and-predictions/", "https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/61407180", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Champions_League#Team_records_and_statistics", "https://www.oddschecker.com/us/soccer/uefa-champions-league"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2022-03-09 | 0.0 | [["2022-03-15", 0.33], ["2022-03-15", 0.5], ["2022-03-15", 0.58], ["2022-03-15", 0.605], ["2022-03-15", 0.6], ["2022-03-15", 0.6], ["2022-03-15", 0.6], ["2022-03-15", 0.6], ["2022-03-15", 0.59], ["2022-03-15", 0.59], ["2022-03-16", 0.59], ["2022-03-16", 0.59], ["2022-03-16", 0.59], ["2022-03-16", 0.59], ["2022-03-16", 0.59], ["2022-03-16", 0.6], ["2022-03-16", 0.6], ["2022-03-16", 0.6], ["2022-03-16", 0.6], ["2022-03-16", 0.6], ["2022-03-16", 0.6], ["2022-03-16", 0.6], ["2022-03-16", 0.6], ["2022-03-16", 0.6], ["2022-03-16", 0.6], ["2022-03-16", 0.6], ["2022-03-17", 0.6], ["2022-03-17", 0.6], ["2022-03-17", 0.6], ["2022-03-17", 0.6], ["2022-03-17", 0.6], ["2022-03-17", 0.6], ["2022-03-17", 0.6], ["2022-03-17", 0.6], ["2022-03-17", 0.6], ["2022-03-18", 0.6], ["2022-03-18", 0.6], ["2022-03-18", 0.6], ["2022-03-18", 0.6], ["2022-03-18", 0.6], ["2022-03-18", 0.6], ["2022-03-18", 0.6], ["2022-03-18", 0.6], ["2022-03-18", 0.6], ["2022-03-19", 0.615], ["2022-03-19", 0.63], ["2022-03-20", 0.64], ["2022-03-20", 0.62], ["2022-03-20", 0.635], ["2022-03-20", 0.65], ["2022-03-21", 0.65], ["2022-03-21", 0.65], ["2022-03-21", 0.65], ["2022-03-21", 0.65], ["2022-03-22", 0.65], ["2022-03-22", 0.65], ["2022-03-22", 0.65], ["2022-03-23", 0.65], ["2022-03-23", 0.65], ["2022-03-23", 0.65], ["2022-03-23", 0.645], ["2022-03-23", 0.645], ["2022-03-24", 0.64], ["2022-03-24", 0.61], ["2022-03-24", 0.61], ["2022-03-25", 0.6], ["2022-03-25", 0.6], ["2022-03-26", 0.61], ["2022-03-27", 0.6], ["2022-03-27", 0.6], ["2022-03-27", 0.6], ["2022-03-28", 0.6], ["2022-03-28", 0.6], ["2022-03-29", 0.6], ["2022-03-29", 0.6], 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2022-04-14 | Before 1 May 2022, will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 3.6 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada? | binary |
<p>The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC (<a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html" target="_blank">PHAC</a>). Total cases are displayed with the map graphic. For daily case data, click the ".CSV" button to the right of the map. See daily number data ("numtoday") associated with daily entries for "Canada" under "prname." Data will be accessed for resolution no later than 5 May 2022.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-04-14 | gjopen | ["https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases.html?stat=num&measure=total&map=pt#a2", "https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/omicron-ba-2-subvariant-becoming-dominant-representing-potential-risk", "https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1507329507329548293", "https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=CAN", "https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashboard/#wastewatersignal", "https://twitter.com/globalnews/status/1506819720267374598", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg", "https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=false&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=~CAN", "https://twitter.com/DrKateTO/status/1506949730533842945", "https://twitter.com/Billius27/status/1506481424395902977", "https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases.html#a4"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2022-03-09 | 1.0 | [["2022-03-15", 0.0], ["2022-03-15", 0.13], ["2022-03-15", 0.26], ["2022-03-15", 0.205], ["2022-03-15", 0.19], ["2022-03-15", 0.15], ["2022-03-15", 0.135], ["2022-03-15", 0.12], ["2022-03-15", 0.11], ["2022-03-15", 0.12], ["2022-03-15", 0.11], ["2022-03-15", 0.1], ["2022-03-15", 0.1], ["2022-03-15", 0.1], ["2022-03-16", 0.11], ["2022-03-16", 0.12], ["2022-03-16", 0.135], ["2022-03-16", 0.135], ["2022-03-16", 0.15], ["2022-03-16", 0.15], ["2022-03-16", 0.15], ["2022-03-16", 0.15], ["2022-03-16", 0.15], ["2022-03-16", 0.175], ["2022-03-16", 0.15], ["2022-03-16", 0.175], ["2022-03-16", 0.2], ["2022-03-16", 0.175], ["2022-03-16", 0.175], ["2022-03-16", 0.175], ["2022-03-16", 0.15], ["2022-03-16", 0.175], 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1.0], ["2022-04-10", 1.0], ["2022-04-10", 1.0], ["2022-04-10", 1.0], ["2022-04-11", 1.0], ["2022-04-11", 1.0], ["2022-04-11", 1.0], ["2022-04-11", 1.0], ["2022-04-11", 1.0], ["2022-04-11", 1.0], ["2022-04-11", 1.0], ["2022-04-11", 1.0], ["2022-04-11", 1.0], ["2022-04-12", 1.0], ["2022-04-12", 1.0], ["2022-04-12", 1.0], ["2022-04-12", 1.0], ["2022-04-12", 1.0], ["2022-04-12", 1.0], ["2022-04-13", 1.0], ["2022-04-13", 1.0], ["2022-04-14", 1.0], ["2022-04-14", 1.0], ["2022-04-14", 1.0], ["2022-04-14", 1.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2296 | True |
2023-10-01 | Will Sweden become a member of NATO before 1 October 2023? | binary |
<p>While Sweden submitted its application to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in May 2022, approval from Hungary and Turkey remain obstacles to membership (<a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-03-29/hungary-says-grievances-hold-up-ratification-of-swedens-nato-accession" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/sweden-hopes-turkey-approves-nato-membership-after-may-election/7055396.html" target="_blank">Voice of America</a>, <a href="https://www.nato-pa.int/content/finland-sweden-accession" target="_blank">NATO Parliamentary Assembly</a>). The latest country to join NATO was Finland on 4 April 2023 (<a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_213448.htm" target="_blank">NATO</a>).</p><p></p><p><i>This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/ubs/" target="_blank">here</a> for more details.</i></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-10-01 | gjopen | ["https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2023/07/19/menendez-maintains-hold-on-turkey-f-16-jets-despite-sweden-nato-deal/", "https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/parliament-announces-recess-until-october-184740", "https://nordicmonitor.com/2023/08/erdogan-unconvincing-on-swedens-timeline-after-swift-approval-of-finlands-nato-bid-in-parliament/", "https://strasbourgobservers.com/2012/02/14/anti-gay-hate-speech-vejdeland-and-others-v-sweden/", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/07/26/turkey-erdogan-nato-eu-sweden-future-goals-europe/", "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/quran-burning-sweden-protest-3rd-desecration-terror-risk-warning/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/swedens-nato-accession-turkeys-bid-buy-f-16-jets-should-be-kept-separate-erdogan-2023-09-10/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hate_speech_laws_by_country#Sweden", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-31/hungary-delays-ratification-of-sweden-s-nato-accession-bid-again", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hungary-signals-its-likely-back-swedens-nato-bid-autumn-2023-07-13/", "https://www.turkishminute.com/2023/08/14/erdogans-islamist-ally-vow-block-sweden-nato-membership-in-parliament/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/turkey-urges-sweden-act-over-terrorism-nato-membership-support-2023-07-21/", "https://www.politico.eu/article/suspend-hungary-eu-presidency-sanction-precaution/", "https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_217147.htm", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/26/world/europe/sweden-nato-turkey-fighter-jets.html", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/21/countries-summon-swedens-ambassadors-to-protest-quran-burning", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sweden%E2%80%93NATO_relations#2022%E2%80%932023_accession_process", "https://apnews.com/article/turkey-erdogan-european-parliament-accession-sweden-f4eecab00566c896ae267e57a363681d", "https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/09/turkey-seriously-upset-over-washington-linking-f-16-sales-swedens-nato-membership", "https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/2023/07/15/turkeys-parliament-could-debate-swedens-nato-application-over-summer-break/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/erdogans-government-discuss-swedens-nato-ratification-with-nationalist-ally-2023-07-12/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-21/turkey-s-erdogan-tells-sweden-to-end-koran-burnings-to-speed-up-nato-membership", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/erdogan-links-swedens-nato-membership-turkeys-eu-accession-2023-07-10/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/swedish-foreign-minister-still-hopeful-turkey-will-ratify-nato-bid-oct-2023-09-01/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pm-orban-says-hungary-no-rush-ratify-swedens-nato-bid-2023-09-25/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2023-05-04 | 0.0 | [["2023-05-05", 0.71], ["2023-05-05", 0.87], ["2023-05-05", 0.738], 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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2870 | True |
2020-02-15 | Before 1 May 2020, will China reduce or remove any tariffs imposed on U.S. yellow soybeans? | binary | <p>China has increased import tariffs on U.S. yellow soybeans (also known as yellow soya beans) to 33% as of the launch of this question (<a href="https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/china-china-announces-increases-additional-tariffs-us-agricultural-products" target="_blank">USDA</a>, <a href="https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3039883/trade-war-us-soybean-farmers-anxiously-await-china-deal" target="_blank">South China Morning Post</a>, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-03/china-exhausts-waivers-to-buy-u-s-soy-free-of-trade-tariffs" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/05/china-gives-little-indication-us-trade-talks-are-progressing.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>). Tariff exemptions and waivers would not count toward the resolution of the question.<br></p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2020-02-19 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2019-12-06 | 1.0 | [["2019-12-06", 0.55], ["2019-12-06", 0.7], ["2019-12-06", 0.7], ["2019-12-06", 0.55], ["2019-12-06", 0.475], ["2019-12-07", 0.45], ["2019-12-07", 0.425], ["2019-12-07", 0.42], ["2019-12-07", 0.41], ["2019-12-07", 0.4], ["2019-12-07", 0.35], ["2019-12-07", 0.275], ["2019-12-08", 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["2020-02-10", 0.67], ["2020-02-11", 0.695], ["2020-02-11", 0.7], ["2020-02-11", 0.75], ["2020-02-11", 0.75], ["2020-02-11", 0.75], ["2020-02-12", 0.75], ["2020-02-12", 0.75], ["2020-02-12", 0.76], ["2020-02-12", 0.76], ["2020-02-12", 0.755], ["2020-02-12", 0.81], ["2020-02-13", 0.88], ["2020-02-13", 0.88], ["2020-02-13", 0.9], ["2020-02-13", 0.9], ["2020-02-14", 0.9], ["2020-02-14", 0.9], ["2020-02-14", 0.9], ["2020-02-14", 0.9], ["2020-02-15", 0.9], ["2020-02-15", 0.9]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1416 | True |
2022-01-01 | Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)? | binary |
<p>As Amazon has grown it has received increased scrutiny, and there have been calls for it to spin off its cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS) (<a href="https://medium.com/swlh/should-amazon-spin-off-aws-e15d6e307506" target="_blank">Medium</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/24/former-amazon-senior-engineer-calls-for-aws-spinoff.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/10/6/21505027/congress-big-tech-antitrust-report-facebook-google-amazon-apple-mark-zuckerberg-jeff-bezos-tim-cook" target="_blank">Vox</a>, <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spinoff.asp" target="_blank">Investopedia</a>). The date when the spinoff would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-01-01 | gjopen | ["https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/30/3-reasons-amazon-should-consider-spinning-off-aws/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1315415", "https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/30/prediction-these-will-be-10-largest-stocks-by-2035/", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-other-tech-giants-could-be-forced-to-shed-assets-under-house-bill-11623423248", "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872421000004/amzn-20201231.htm#i75de98b9097f40f3b5884e541f532421_163", "https://theweek.com/jeff-bezos/1002278/andy-jassy-is-amazons-new-ceo-can-he-fill-jeff-bezos-shoes", "https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2019/10/31/spin-offs-unraveled/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/29/technology/facebook-google-antitrust-tech.html", "https://www.zdnet.com/article/why-its-time-to-spin-aws-out-of-amazon/", "https://research-doc.credit-suisse.com/docView?language=ENG&source=emfromsendlink&format=PDF&document_id=999089271&extdocid=999089271_1_eng_pdf&serialid=pvH393UArco6JvZIguX4cJ5jXWIkrqD%2Bb1l3MzX4YTI%3D#:~:text=Do%20Spin%2DOffs%20Create%20or%20Destroy%20Value%3F&text=We%20find%20that%20spin%2Doffs,volatility%20of%20returns%20is%20significant", "https://techcrunch.com/2016/07/02/andy-jassys-brief-history-of-the-genesis-of-aws/", "https://som.yale.edu/faculty-research-centers/centers-initiatives/thurman-arnold-project-at-yale/antitrust-enforcement-data-0", "https://seekingalpha.com/article/4463214-amazon-time-to-spin-off-aws", "https://stacker.com/stories/3604/15-companies-us-government-tried-break-monopolies", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/22/technology/amazon-apple-google-facebook-antitrust-bills.html", "https://searchaws.techtarget.com/definition/Amazon-Web-Services", "https://www.businessinsider.com/andy-jassy-aws-amazon-spin-off-break-up-tim-bray-2021-2", "https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2021/06/28/the-prime-effect-inside-amazon-web-services", "https://seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4463214-amazon-time-to-spin-off-aws", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PayPal", "https://www.finra.org/investors/insights/splitting-difference-four-reasons-why-corporations-pursue-spinoffs", "https://forrestbrazeal.com/2019/07/24/cloud-irregular-amazon-wont-spin-off-aws-and-thats-too-bad-for-aws/", "https://www.theregreview.org/2020/10/01/hovenkamp-antitrust-regulation-over-time/", "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/05/how-amazon-web-services-makes-money-estimated-margins-by-service.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_corporate_spin-offs"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2020-10-30 | 0.0 | [["2020-10-30", 0.825], ["2020-10-30", 0.665], ["2020-10-31", 0.64], ["2020-10-31", 0.75], ["2020-10-31", 0.675], ["2020-10-31", 0.275], ["2020-11-01", 0.09], ["2020-11-01", 0.07], ["2020-11-01", 0.05], ["2020-11-02", 0.05], ["2020-11-02", 0.055], 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2021-11-01 | Between 5 February 2021 and 31 October 2021, will anti-government protests in Russia result in five or more fatalities? | binary |
<p>Russia has seen growing protests sparked primarily by the arrest and imprisonment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny (<a href="https://apnews.com/article/alexei-navalny-russia-jail-52c598a1929341e955d131fddff0d735" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/05/russia-expels-swedish-polish-german-diplomats-over-navalny-protests-foreign-ministry-a72850" target="_blank">Moscow Times</a>). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-11-01 | gjopen | ["https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-prison-mass-hunger-strike/31457897.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2021/mar/17/joe-biden-covid-coronavirus-relief-plan-andrew-cuomo-atlanta-shooting-live-updates", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56644807", "https://www.rferl.org/a/russia_rallies_arrests_opposition_protests/24413923.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_protests_in_the_21st_century#National", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Protests_in_Russia", "https://ovdinfo.org/tags/spiski-zaderzhannyh", "https://www.euronews.com/2021/04/21/watch-live-navalny-supporters-hold-mass-protests-across-russia", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persistent_organic_pollutant", "https://www.wikiwand.com/en/George_Floyd_protests", "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/alexei-navalny-russia-protests-putin-opposition-traitors-europe-union-diplomat-expulsions/", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-politics-navalny-tenders-idUSKBN2BP0NE", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/21/top-navalny-aides-arrested-protests-jailed-opposition-leader-russian-police-moscow", "https://web.archive.org/web/20131224121337/https://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/07/russia-update-1-tv-pix-idUSL5E7N73K320111207", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1945-before-15-august-2021-will-alexei-navalny-be-convicted-on-any-fraud-charges-related-to-his-activities-with-his-non-profit-organizations", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/20/kremlin-plots-major-crackdown-on-navalny-allies-as-he-fights-for-life", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/10/top-russian-doctor-at-navalny-clinic-found-after-disappearance", "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/police-training-weeks-united-states/", "https://www.arabnews.com/node/1857101/world", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/10/world/europe/covid-russia-death.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/05/russian-police-arrest-more-than-200-anti-putin-protesters-siberia", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_Belarusian_protests#Deaths", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/18/alexei-navalny-allies-call-for-mass-protests-in-russia-to-save-his-life", "https://www.npr.org/2021/04/22/989694331/at-least-1-700-protesters-in-russia-arrested-after-nationwide-anti-putin-rallies", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Russian_protests"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2021-02-05 | 0.0 | [["2021-02-05", 1.0], ["2021-02-05", 0.775], ["2021-02-05", 0.55], ["2021-02-05", 0.315], ["2021-02-05", 0.1], ["2021-02-05", 0.175], ["2021-02-05", 0.165], ["2021-02-05", 0.25], ["2021-02-05", 0.165], ["2021-02-05", 0.08], ["2021-02-05", 0.08], ["2021-02-05", 0.165], ["2021-02-05", 0.25], ["2021-02-05", 0.165], ["2021-02-05", 0.08], ["2021-02-05", 0.165], ["2021-02-05", 0.08], ["2021-02-05", 0.14], ["2021-02-05", 0.2], ["2021-02-05", 0.14], ["2021-02-05", 0.08], ["2021-02-06", 0.14], ["2021-02-06", 0.08], ["2021-02-06", 0.115], ["2021-02-06", 0.1], ["2021-02-06", 0.1], ["2021-02-06", 0.1], ["2021-02-06", 0.125], ["2021-02-06", 0.1], ["2021-02-06", 0.125], ["2021-02-06", 0.1], ["2021-02-06", 0.125], ["2021-02-06", 0.15], ["2021-02-06", 0.135], ["2021-02-07", 0.15], ["2021-02-07", 0.17], ["2021-02-07", 0.19], ["2021-02-07", 0.17], ["2021-02-07", 0.19], ["2021-02-07", 0.195], ["2021-02-07", 0.2], ["2021-02-07", 0.195], ["2021-02-07", 0.19], ["2021-02-07", 0.195], ["2021-02-07", 0.19], ["2021-02-07", 0.195], ["2021-02-07", 0.19], ["2021-02-07", 0.195], ["2021-02-07", 0.2], ["2021-02-08", 0.2], ["2021-02-08", 0.2], ["2021-02-08", 0.2], ["2021-02-08", 0.225], ["2021-02-08", 0.2], ["2021-02-08", 0.225], ["2021-02-08", 0.2], ["2021-02-08", 0.2], ["2021-02-08", 0.2], ["2021-02-08", 0.2], ["2021-02-08", 0.24], ["2021-02-08", 0.28], ["2021-02-08", 0.28], ["2021-02-08", 0.3], ["2021-02-08", 0.3], ["2021-02-08", 0.3], 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["2021-03-25", 0.08], ["2021-03-27", 0.08], ["2021-03-27", 0.08], ["2021-03-27", 0.08], ["2021-03-28", 0.08], ["2021-03-29", 0.1], ["2021-03-30", 0.115], ["2021-03-31", 0.115], ["2021-03-31", 0.115], ["2021-03-31", 0.115], ["2021-03-31", 0.1], ["2021-03-31", 0.1], ["2021-04-02", 0.13], ["2021-04-02", 0.1], ["2021-04-03", 0.1], ["2021-04-04", 0.08], ["2021-04-04", 0.08], ["2021-04-04", 0.07], ["2021-04-04", 0.06], ["2021-04-05", 0.075], ["2021-04-07", 0.075], ["2021-04-07", 0.075], ["2021-04-07", 0.065], ["2021-04-08", 0.065], ["2021-04-09", 0.065], ["2021-04-09", 0.065], ["2021-04-10", 0.09], ["2021-04-11", 0.09], ["2021-04-12", 0.09], ["2021-04-13", 0.075], ["2021-04-14", 0.075], ["2021-04-14", 0.075], ["2021-04-14", 0.075], ["2021-04-15", 0.075], ["2021-04-16", 0.075], ["2021-04-17", 0.075], ["2021-04-17", 0.08], ["2021-04-18", 0.07], ["2021-04-18", 0.07], ["2021-04-18", 0.08], ["2021-04-18", 0.08], ["2021-04-18", 0.08], ["2021-04-18", 0.08], ["2021-04-18", 0.1], ["2021-04-18", 0.1], ["2021-04-18", 0.08], ["2021-04-19", 0.08], ["2021-04-19", 0.08], ["2021-04-19", 0.08], ["2021-04-20", 0.08], ["2021-04-20", 0.08], ["2021-04-21", 0.08], ["2021-04-21", 0.08], ["2021-04-21", 0.08], ["2021-04-21", 0.08], ["2021-04-22", 0.08], ["2021-04-23", 0.08], ["2021-04-23", 0.09], ["2021-04-24", 0.09], ["2021-04-24", 0.09], ["2021-04-25", 0.09], ["2021-04-25", 0.08], ["2021-04-26", 0.075], ["2021-04-26", 0.07], ["2021-04-26", 0.07], ["2021-04-27", 0.07], ["2021-04-27", 0.07], ["2021-04-27", 0.07], ["2021-04-27", 0.075], ["2021-04-28", 0.075], ["2021-04-28", 0.075], ["2021-04-28", 0.07], ["2021-04-28", 0.07], ["2021-04-29", 0.07], ["2021-04-30", 0.075], ["2021-04-30", 0.075], ["2021-05-01", 0.07], ["2021-05-02", 0.07], ["2021-05-05", 0.07], ["2021-05-06", 0.07], ["2021-05-07", 0.07], ["2021-05-07", 0.07], ["2021-05-07", 0.07], ["2021-05-10", 0.07], ["2021-05-10", 0.07], ["2021-05-10", 0.07], ["2021-05-10", 0.07], ["2021-05-10", 0.07], ["2021-05-11", 0.07], ["2021-05-11", 0.07], 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["2021-07-27", 0.02], ["2021-07-27", 0.02], ["2021-07-28", 0.02], ["2021-07-28", 0.02], ["2021-07-29", 0.02], ["2021-07-29", 0.02], ["2021-07-30", 0.02], ["2021-07-31", 0.02], ["2021-07-31", 0.02], ["2021-07-31", 0.02], ["2021-07-31", 0.02], ["2021-08-01", 0.02], ["2021-08-04", 0.02], ["2021-08-05", 0.02], ["2021-08-05", 0.02], ["2021-08-05", 0.02], ["2021-08-06", 0.02], ["2021-08-10", 0.02], ["2021-08-10", 0.02], ["2021-08-11", 0.02], ["2021-08-11", 0.02], ["2021-08-12", 0.02], ["2021-08-13", 0.02], ["2021-08-13", 0.02], ["2021-08-14", 0.02], ["2021-08-14", 0.02], ["2021-08-15", 0.02], ["2021-08-15", 0.02], ["2021-08-19", 0.02], ["2021-08-19", 0.02], ["2021-08-20", 0.02], ["2021-08-22", 0.02], ["2021-08-23", 0.015], ["2021-08-26", 0.015], ["2021-08-29", 0.015], ["2021-08-31", 0.015], ["2021-09-01", 0.01], ["2021-09-02", 0.01], ["2021-09-03", 0.01], ["2021-09-03", 0.01], ["2021-09-04", 0.01], ["2021-09-05", 0.01], ["2021-09-05", 0.01], ["2021-09-06", 0.01], ["2021-09-07", 0.01], 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["2021-10-07", 0.0], ["2021-10-07", 0.0], ["2021-10-08", 0.0], ["2021-10-08", 0.0], ["2021-10-09", 0.0], ["2021-10-09", 0.0], ["2021-10-10", 0.0], ["2021-10-11", 0.0], ["2021-10-12", 0.0], ["2021-10-14", 0.0], ["2021-10-15", 0.0], ["2021-10-15", 0.0], ["2021-10-17", 0.0], ["2021-10-20", 0.0], ["2021-10-21", 0.0], ["2021-10-21", 0.0], ["2021-10-22", 0.0], ["2021-10-25", 0.0], ["2021-10-25", 0.0], ["2021-10-26", 0.0], ["2021-10-30", 0.0], ["2021-10-31", 0.0], ["2021-10-31", 0.0], ["2021-11-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1929 | True |
2021-01-01 | Before 1 January 2021, will a date be set for a referendum on Scotland's status within the United Kingdom? | binary |
<p>A change in Scotland's relationship with the United Kingdom is being discussed as a possible consequence of the Brexit process (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-51106796" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote" target="_blank">Guardian</a>). The referendum date is immaterial to the question. Whether the UK government sets or agrees to the referendum date or implements the result is immaterial to the question.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-01-01 | gjopen | ["https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland/scotlands-sturgeon-hints-at-legal-move-if-independence-vote-blocked-idUSKBN28A0QD", "https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-scotland-referendum-idUKKBN27X0MA"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2020-01-17 | 0.0 | [["2020-01-17", 0.2], ["2020-01-18", 0.275], ["2020-01-18", 0.2], ["2020-01-18", 0.035], 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2021-01-01 | Before 1 January 2021, will it be announced that the fueling of the Vogtle nuclear reactor Unit 3 has begun? | binary |
<p>Georgia's Vogtle Electric Generating Plant will become the country's largest nuclear power plant with the addition of new reactor Units 3 and 4, the first new nuclear power units built in the United States in decades (<a href="https://dailyenergyinsider.com/news/26307-vogtle-unit-3-reaches-new-milestones/" target="_blank">Daily Energy Insider</a>, <a href="https://www.georgiapower.com/company/plant-vogtle.html" target="_blank">Georgia Power</a>). The current goal is for Unit 3 to be in service towards the end of 2021, with an initial fuel load being a significant milestone towards meeting that goal (<a href="https://cleanenergy.org/blog/is-there-more-trouble-ahead-for-plant-vogtle-expansion-experts-testify-that-serious-challenges-remain/" target="_blank">Southern Alliance for Clean Energy</a>, <a href="https://www.power-eng.com/2020/02/14/u-s-nuclear-regulators-fuel-loading-at-vogtle-unit-3-could-begin-in-november/" target="_blank">Power Engineering</a>, <a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/closed-vessel-testing-complete-for-vogtle-unit-3-301093348.html" target="_blank">PR Newswire</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10px;">Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ </a>or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-01-01 | gjopen | ["https://www.southerncompany.com/newsroom/2020/dec-2020/georgia-power-receives-first-nuclear-fuel-shipment-for-vogtle-unit-3.html"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2020-07-24 | 0.0 | [["2020-07-24", 0.0], ["2020-07-24", 0.45], ["2020-07-24", 0.13], ["2020-07-24", 0.19], ["2020-07-24", 0.25], ["2020-07-24", 0.26], ["2020-07-24", 0.25], ["2020-07-24", 0.26], 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0.0], ["2020-10-20", 0.005], ["2020-10-20", 0.01], ["2020-10-20", 0.01], ["2020-10-20", 0.01], ["2020-10-20", 0.01], ["2020-10-21", 0.01], ["2020-10-23", 0.01], ["2020-10-24", 0.01], ["2020-10-24", 0.01], ["2020-10-24", 0.005], ["2020-10-24", 0.0], ["2020-10-25", 0.0], ["2020-10-26", 0.0], ["2020-10-26", 0.0], ["2020-10-27", 0.0], ["2020-10-27", 0.0], ["2020-10-27", 0.0], ["2020-10-28", 0.0], ["2020-10-30", 0.0], ["2020-10-30", 0.0], ["2020-10-31", 0.0], ["2020-10-31", 0.0], ["2020-11-01", 0.0], ["2020-11-02", 0.0], ["2020-11-04", 0.0], ["2020-11-07", 0.0], ["2020-11-07", 0.0], ["2020-11-07", 0.0], ["2020-11-08", 0.0], ["2020-11-08", 0.0], ["2020-11-10", 0.0], ["2020-11-12", 0.0], ["2020-11-12", 0.0], ["2020-11-12", 0.0], ["2020-11-13", 0.0], ["2020-11-17", 0.0], ["2020-11-17", 0.0], ["2020-11-18", 0.0], ["2020-11-20", 0.0], ["2020-11-21", 0.0], ["2020-11-21", 0.0], ["2020-11-21", 0.0], ["2020-11-22", 0.0], ["2020-11-25", 0.0], ["2020-11-26", 0.0], ["2020-11-27", 0.0], ["2020-12-02", 0.0], ["2020-12-03", 0.0], ["2020-12-04", 0.0], ["2020-12-05", 0.0], ["2020-12-05", 0.0], ["2020-12-05", 0.0], ["2020-12-06", 0.0], ["2020-12-09", 0.0], ["2020-12-10", 0.0], ["2020-12-10", 0.0], ["2020-12-10", 0.0], ["2020-12-11", 0.0], ["2020-12-15", 0.0], ["2020-12-17", 0.0], ["2020-12-19", 0.0], ["2020-12-22", 0.0], ["2020-12-24", 0.0], ["2020-12-27", 0.0], ["2020-12-28", 0.0], ["2020-12-28", 0.0], ["2020-12-29", 0.0], ["2020-12-29", 0.0], ["2021-01-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1709 | True |
2023-03-07 | Will US FCC nominee Gigi Sohn be confirmed by the Senate before 24 June 2023? | binary |
<p>President Biden first nominated Sohn to the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) in October 2021, but the Senate did not hold a confirmation vote in the last Congress (<a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/10/26/1049301069/biden-fcc-nominations-rosenworcel-sohn" target="_blank">NPR</a>). Biden renominated her in January 2023, but Republican opposition remains high (<a href="https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2023/01/biden-hopes-51-49-senate-will-finally-give-fcc-a-democratic-majority/" target="_blank">Ars Technica</a>, <a href="https://rollcall.com/2023/02/14/sohn-blames-dark-money-for-opposition-to-her-joining-fcc/" target="_blank">Roll Call</a>, <a href="https://deadline.com/2023/02/fcc-gigi-sohn-joe-biden-1235259173/" target="_blank">Deadline</a>). The question would close early upon either a withdrawal of her nomination or a full Senate vote against confirmation.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-03-08 | gjopen | ["https://www.axios.com/2023/03/03/gigi-sohn-fcc-nomination", "https://ballotpedia.org/Confirmation_process_for_Debra_Haaland_for_secretary_of_the_interior", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/sohn-won-t-chair-fcc-if-confirmed-white-house-official-says/ar-AA18hur1", "https://www.axios.com/2023/03/03/gigi-sohn-fcc-nomination?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=editorial", "https://www.politico.com/news/2021/02/23/neera-tanden-confirmation-471265"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2023-02-23 | 0.0 | [["2023-02-24", 0.05], ["2023-02-24", 0.29], ["2023-02-24", 0.26], ["2023-02-24", 0.36], ["2023-02-24", 0.328], ["2023-02-25", 0.3067], ["2023-02-25", 0.2629], ["2023-02-25", 0.29], ["2023-02-25", 0.2856], ["2023-02-25", 0.357], ["2023-02-25", 0.3609], ["2023-02-25", 0.335], ["2023-02-25", 0.3131], ["2023-02-26", 0.2907], ["2023-02-26", 0.2764], ["2023-02-28", 0.271], ["2023-02-28", 0.281], ["2023-02-28", 0.244], ["2023-03-01", 0.239], ["2023-03-01", 0.149], ["2023-03-01", 0.154], ["2023-03-01", 0.189], ["2023-03-02", 0.189], ["2023-03-03", 0.175], ["2023-03-03", 0.174], ["2023-03-03", 0.184], ["2023-03-04", 0.157], ["2023-03-04", 0.157], ["2023-03-04", 0.159], ["2023-03-07", 0.167], ["2023-03-07", 0.167]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2771 | True |
2021-03-15 | Will be the end-of-day price of a Dogecoin on 15 March 2021 be higher as compared to the end-of-day price on 15 February 2021? | binary |
<p>Originally created as a joke, the Dogecoin cryptocurrency has seen an incredible rise in value due to pushes made on Reddit and elsewhere (<a href="https://dogecoin.com/" target="_blank">Dogecoin</a>, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-11/dogecoin-s-creator-is-just-as-baffled-as-you-are-about-its-rise" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>). The outcome will be determined using the last price dated in calendar 15 March 2021 (PT) as reported by Coindesk (<a href="https://www.coindesk.com/price/dogecoin" target="_blank">Coindesk</a>). The last reported price for Dogecoin for 15 February 2021 was $0.058727.</p><p></p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-03-16 | gjopen | ["https://tradingbeasts.com/price-prediction/dogecoin", "https://www.coindesk.com/git-along-lil-doge-dallas-mavs-to%02accept-dogecoin-for-tickets-merchandise", "https://www.statista.com/statistics/1200235/dogecoin-price-index/", "https://capital.com/dogecoin-price-prediction-2021-and-beyond", "https://www.coindesk.com/price/dogecoin", "https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/dogecoin-price-prediction-for-2021-704367", "https://bitcoinist.com/dogecoin-explodes-1100-in-gamestop-like-copycat-rally/", "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dogecoin-meme-shield-against-price-033621988.html", "https://www.coindesk.com/how-dogecoin-became-popular", "https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-dogecoin-uniswap-and-filecoin-european-wrap-16-february-202102161220", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractal"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2021-02-16 | 0.0 | [["2021-02-16", 0.05], ["2021-02-16", 0.15], ["2021-02-16", 0.25], ["2021-02-16", 0.175], ["2021-02-16", 0.25], ["2021-02-16", 0.225], ["2021-02-16", 0.2], ["2021-02-16", 0.11], ["2021-02-16", 0.1], ["2021-02-16", 0.105], ["2021-02-16", 0.11], ["2021-02-16", 0.13], ["2021-02-16", 0.15], ["2021-02-17", 0.175], ["2021-02-17", 0.15], ["2021-02-17", 0.175], ["2021-02-17", 0.2], ["2021-02-17", 0.235], ["2021-02-17", 0.235], 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["2021-03-14", 0.23], ["2021-03-14", 0.23], ["2021-03-14", 0.245], ["2021-03-14", 0.26], ["2021-03-14", 0.26], ["2021-03-14", 0.26], ["2021-03-14", 0.26], ["2021-03-14", 0.26], ["2021-03-14", 0.26], ["2021-03-14", 0.26], ["2021-03-14", 0.26], ["2021-03-14", 0.25], ["2021-03-14", 0.26], ["2021-03-14", 0.285], ["2021-03-14", 0.3], ["2021-03-14", 0.325], ["2021-03-14", 0.325], ["2021-03-14", 0.325], ["2021-03-14", 0.35], ["2021-03-14", 0.4], ["2021-03-14", 0.4], ["2021-03-14", 0.45], ["2021-03-14", 0.5], ["2021-03-14", 0.51], ["2021-03-14", 0.5], ["2021-03-14", 0.5], ["2021-03-14", 0.51], ["2021-03-14", 0.515], ["2021-03-14", 0.52], ["2021-03-14", 0.515], ["2021-03-15", 0.515], ["2021-03-15", 0.515], ["2021-03-15", 0.52], ["2021-03-15", 0.54], ["2021-03-15", 0.54], ["2021-03-15", 0.56], ["2021-03-15", 0.54], ["2021-03-15", 0.56], ["2021-03-15", 0.56]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1938 | True |
2022-01-01 | Will any four-week average of US field production of crude oil exceed 12 million b/d in 2021? | binary |
<p>US oil production fell a record 8% in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic (<a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=47056" target="_blank">EIA</a>, <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/09/07/covid-19-us-oil-industry-wyoming-texas-baker-hughes/5735992002/" target="_blank">USA Today</a>). The outcome will be determined using the "4-Week Avg U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil" data (which is displayed in thousands of barrels per day) as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) (<a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=wcrfpus2&f=4" target="_blank">EIA</a>). A weekly figure must have its "End Date" in 2021 to count. In June 2021, the EIA forecasted domestic production would reach an average of 11.38 million barrels per day (million b/d) in the fourth quarter of 2021 (<a href="https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/jun21.pdf" target="_blank">EIA STEO June 2021</a>, see Table 4a).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-01-05 | gjopen | ["https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/07/oil-markets-us-inventories-demand-concerns.html", "https://www.usatoday.com/storytelling/coronavirus-reopening-america-map/#restrictions", "https://texasnewstoday.com/oil-companies-cut-production-in-the-gulf-of-mexico-by-91-ahead-of-hurricane-ida/434835/", "https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/Rig-count-leaps-by-nine-as-crude-climbs-above-74-16485238.php", "https://m.investing.com/economic-calendar/baker-hughes-u.s.-rig-count-1652/?catPage=history", "https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=49576", "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_SUM_SNDW_DCUS_NUS_W.htm", "https://hayspost.com/posts/65d94ad7-10c6-4485-9027-2b51bcc43815", "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/", "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-extends-gains-us-crude-inventory-draw-points-strong-demand-2021-10-21/", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/daneberhart/2021/11/13/why-are-oil-prices-so-high-when-the-us-remains-one-of-the-worlds-largest-producers/", "https://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-tumbles-on-fears-of-demand-hit-from-new-covid-variant-as-opec-meeting-looms-for-next-week-11637913584", "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/signs-demand-weakness-emerge-oil-190000042.html", "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-march-again-tight-market-us-crude-7-yr-high-2021-10-25/", "https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/090821-us-eia-cuts-2022-global-oil-demand-outlook-by-240000-bd", "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-shale-producers-signal-more-oil-coming-opec-counts-restraint-2021-11-03/", "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-falls-us-gasoline-stock-draw-raises-prospect-spr-release-2021-11-17/", "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_epc0_fpf_mbblpd_w.htm", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-rises-1-ahead-opec-meeting-under-omicron-cloud-2021-12-01/", "https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/u.s.-drillers-add-oil-and-gas-rigs-for-fourth-week-in-a-row-baker-hughes-2021-10-01", "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mgfupus2&f=m", "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=wcrfpus2&f=4", "https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/u-crude-production-continues-trail-171700213.html", "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=wcrfpus2"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2021-06-11 | 0.0 | [["2021-06-11", 0.99], ["2021-06-11", 0.695], ["2021-06-11", 0.99], ["2021-06-11", 0.695], ["2021-06-11", 0.63], ["2021-06-11", 0.715], ["2021-06-11", 0.63], ["2021-06-11", 0.515], ["2021-06-12", 0.4], ["2021-06-12", 0.4], ["2021-06-12", 0.33], ["2021-06-12", 0.4], ["2021-06-12", 0.33], ["2021-06-12", 0.26], ["2021-06-12", 0.25], ["2021-06-12", 0.315], ["2021-06-12", 0.3], ["2021-06-12", 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["2021-12-18", 0.0], ["2021-12-19", 0.0], ["2021-12-20", 0.0], ["2021-12-20", 0.0], ["2021-12-22", 0.0], ["2021-12-23", 0.0], ["2021-12-23", 0.0], ["2021-12-23", 0.0], ["2021-12-24", 0.0], ["2021-12-24", 0.0], ["2021-12-25", 0.0], ["2021-12-25", 0.0], ["2021-12-26", 0.0], ["2021-12-29", 0.0], ["2021-12-30", 0.0], ["2022-01-01", 0.0], ["2022-01-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2033 | True |
2023-03-01 | Before 1 March 2023, will Russia either officially announce the formal annexation of additional territory in Ukraine or send uniformed military forces into another country without its government's permission? | binary |
For the purposes of this question, "additional territory" means any Ukrainian territory other than territory in the oblasts of Crimea, Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, or Zaporizhzhia. Forces that are not formally part of the Russian military (e.g., Wagner Group) would not count.<p></p><p><i><b>NOTE</b>: Questions in the Fujitsu Hivemind Challenge have been partly crowdsourced through a research project and consequently may have experimental framings.</i></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.2;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 18 January 2023</span>: The movement and presence of Russian troops where they were already deployed as of the launch of this question (e.g., Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Nagorno-Karabakh, Ukraine, Transnistria) would not count.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-03-01 | gjopen | ["http://gas.org/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2023-01-18 | 0.0 | [["2023-01-18", 0.0], ["2023-01-18", 0.0], ["2023-01-18", 0.0], ["2023-01-18", 0.0], ["2023-01-18", 0.0], ["2023-01-18", 0.0017], ["2023-01-18", 0.0029], ["2023-01-18", 0.0025], ["2023-01-19", 0.0022], ["2023-01-19", 0.004], ["2023-01-19", 0.0036], ["2023-01-19", 0.0033], ["2023-01-19", 0.0438], ["2023-01-19", 0.0414], ["2023-01-19", 0.0393], ["2023-01-19", 0.0431], ["2023-01-19", 0.0418], ["2023-01-19", 0.0478], ["2023-01-19", 0.0768], ["2023-01-19", 0.0755], ["2023-01-19", 0.0724], ["2023-01-19", 0.0691], ["2023-01-19", 0.07], ["2023-01-19", 0.067], ["2023-01-19", 0.0642], ["2023-01-19", 0.0628], ["2023-01-19", 0.0628], ["2023-01-20", 0.0828], ["2023-01-20", 0.0708], ["2023-01-20", 0.0685], ["2023-01-20", 0.0696], ["2023-01-20", 0.0671], ["2023-01-20", 0.0655], ["2023-01-20", 0.0652], ["2023-01-20", 0.0652], ["2023-01-20", 0.0633], ["2023-01-20", 0.0616], ["2023-01-20", 0.0659], ["2023-01-21", 0.0645], ["2023-01-22", 0.0781], ["2023-01-22", 0.0792], ["2023-01-22", 0.0635], ["2023-01-22", 0.0317], ["2023-01-23", 0.036], ["2023-01-23", 0.036], ["2023-01-23", 0.0375], ["2023-01-23", 0.04], ["2023-01-24", 0.0463], ["2023-01-24", 0.0556], ["2023-01-24", 0.0524], ["2023-01-24", 0.0571], ["2023-01-25", 0.0594], ["2023-01-26", 0.0589], ["2023-01-27", 0.0589], ["2023-01-27", 0.0611], ["2023-01-28", 0.0584], ["2023-01-29", 0.0479], ["2023-01-29", 0.0484], ["2023-01-29", 0.0489], ["2023-01-30", 0.0484], ["2023-01-30", 0.046], ["2023-01-30", 0.041], ["2023-01-30", 0.041], ["2023-01-31", 0.0405], ["2023-01-31", 0.0385], ["2023-01-31", 0.0367], ["2023-01-31", 0.0367], ["2023-01-31", 0.0373], ["2023-01-31", 0.0441], ["2023-01-31", 0.0418], ["2023-01-31", 0.0418], ["2023-02-01", 0.0413], ["2023-02-01", 0.0357], ["2023-02-01", 0.0291], ["2023-02-01", 0.0283], ["2023-02-01", 0.0283], ["2023-02-01", 0.0242], ["2023-02-01", 0.0232], ["2023-02-01", 0.0192], ["2023-02-01", 0.0196], ["2023-02-01", 0.018], ["2023-02-01", 0.0208], ["2023-02-01", 0.0208], ["2023-02-02", 0.0212], ["2023-02-02", 0.0331], ["2023-02-02", 0.0608], ["2023-02-03", 0.0642], ["2023-02-04", 0.0704], ["2023-02-04", 0.0673], ["2023-02-05", 0.0677], ["2023-02-05", 0.0677], ["2023-02-06", 0.0677], ["2023-02-06", 0.067], ["2023-02-06", 0.0656], ["2023-02-08", 0.0644], ["2023-02-08", 0.0644], ["2023-02-09", 0.0644], ["2023-02-09", 0.0644], ["2023-02-10", 0.063], ["2023-02-11", 0.063], ["2023-02-11", 0.0626], ["2023-02-11", 0.0626], ["2023-02-11", 0.0644], ["2023-02-11", 0.0641], ["2023-02-12", 0.0641], ["2023-02-13", 0.0618], ["2023-02-14", 0.0618], ["2023-02-14", 0.0618], ["2023-02-14", 0.0618], ["2023-02-15", 0.0611], ["2023-02-15", 0.0604], ["2023-02-16", 0.06], ["2023-02-17", 0.06], ["2023-02-17", 0.0597], ["2023-02-18", 0.0593], ["2023-02-18", 0.059], ["2023-02-18", 0.0597], ["2023-02-18", 0.0597], ["2023-02-19", 0.0597], ["2023-02-19", 0.0545], ["2023-02-19", 0.0538], ["2023-02-20", 0.0534], ["2023-02-21", 0.0534], ["2023-02-21", 0.0531], ["2023-02-21", 0.0513], ["2023-02-22", 0.0673], ["2023-02-22", 0.0673], ["2023-02-23", 0.0673], ["2023-02-24", 0.0673], ["2023-02-24", 0.0563], ["2023-02-24", 0.0545], ["2023-02-25", 0.0306], ["2023-02-25", 0.0281], ["2023-02-25", 0.0271], ["2023-02-25", 0.0271], ["2023-02-26", 0.0269], ["2023-02-26", 0.0272], ["2023-02-26", 0.0269], ["2023-02-26", 0.0269], ["2023-02-26", 0.0275], ["2023-02-27", 0.0278], ["2023-02-27", 0.0278], ["2023-02-28", 0.027], ["2023-02-28", 0.0282], ["2023-02-28", 0.0279], ["2023-02-28", 0.0279], ["2023-02-28", 0.0271], ["2023-02-28", 0.0241], ["2023-03-01", 0.0226], ["2023-03-01", 0.0221], ["2023-03-01", 0.0221]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2718 | True |
2020-05-01 | Before 1 May 2020, will the Chicago Board Options Exchange's CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) close below 15.00? | binary |
<p>The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a measure of the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options (<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/vix.asp" target="_blank">Investopedia</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/VIX:IND" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>
| 2020-05-01 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2020-03-19 | 0.0 | [["2020-03-20", 0.5], ["2020-03-20", 0.345], ["2020-03-20", 0.19], ["2020-03-20", 0.095], ["2020-03-20", 0.0], ["2020-03-20", 0.0], ["2020-03-20", 0.0], ["2020-03-20", 0.005], ["2020-03-20", 0.01], ["2020-03-20", 0.005], ["2020-03-20", 0.0], ["2020-03-21", 0.0], ["2020-03-21", 0.0], ["2020-03-21", 0.0], ["2020-03-21", 0.005], ["2020-03-21", 0.01], ["2020-03-21", 0.01], ["2020-03-21", 0.01], ["2020-03-21", 0.03], ["2020-03-21", 0.01], ["2020-03-21", 0.01], ["2020-03-21", 0.01], ["2020-03-21", 0.01], ["2020-03-21", 0.03], ["2020-03-21", 0.03], ["2020-03-21", 0.015], ["2020-03-21", 0.02], ["2020-03-21", 0.01], ["2020-03-21", 0.015], ["2020-03-21", 0.015], ["2020-03-22", 0.015], ["2020-03-22", 0.02], ["2020-03-22", 0.1], ["2020-03-22", 0.1], ["2020-03-22", 0.1], ["2020-03-22", 0.1], ["2020-03-22", 0.1], ["2020-03-22", 0.1], ["2020-03-22", 0.1], ["2020-03-22", 0.1], ["2020-03-22", 0.1], 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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1565 | True |
2022-08-05 | Between 4 February 2022 and 4 August 2022, will anti-government protests in Russia result in ten or more fatalities? | binary |
<p>Russia has seen widespread protests in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine (<a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-vladimir-putin-europe-arrests-moscow-cf5dda5528937de907f8916820cfab75" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/02/25/muscovites-come-out-to-protest-the-war-a76582" target="_blank">Moscow Times</a>). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify, though not necessarily at the same time. If there is clear and credible evidence that the death of a detained protester is due to an injury incurred during a protest, only then would the death of such a prisoner count.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2022-08-05 | gjopen | ["https://www.dw.com/en/russian-activists-defy-putin-to-protest-war-in-ukraine/a-61073902", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/26/russia-protests-dissent-activists-skochilenko/", "https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/putins-new-police-state", "https://www.csis.org/analysis/strangling-bear-sanctions-russia-after-four-months", "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-60624500", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60125659", "https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/03/09/russia-brutal-arrests-and-torture-ill-treatment-anti-war-protesters#", "https://www.mintpressnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Untitled-design_edited.jpg", "https://news.sky.com/story/moscow-looks-the-same-but-is-utterly-transformed-12567609", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_protests_against_the_Vietnam_War", "https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/the-impact-of-western-sanctions-on-russia/", "https://www.npr.org/2022/03/07/1084967986/russia-arrests-more-protesters", "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ruble-currency-2022/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/05/world/europe/russian-exiles-foreign-agents-putin.html", "https://www.jpost.com/international/article-700677", "https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-elderly-woman-anti-war-protest-b2027436.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/10/vladimir-putin-regime-anti-war-protests-russia-russian", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/30/people-are-turning-off-muscovites-put-the-war-aside-and-enjoy-summer", "https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/HTTWYL", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1409514", "https://unherd.com/thepost/post-sanctions-life-in-moscow-is-not-all-that-different/", "https://theins.ru/en/news/252268", "https://theconversation.com/ukraine-russian-opposition-to-the-invasion-is-giving-putin-cause-for-alarm-178449", "https://www.mintpressnews.com/author/alan-macleod/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Russian_constitutional_crisis"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2022-03-03 | 0.0 | [["2022-03-04", 0.875], ["2022-03-04", 0.45], ["2022-03-04", 0.21], ["2022-03-04", 0.6], ["2022-03-04", 0.6], ["2022-03-04", 0.6], ["2022-03-04", 0.6], ["2022-03-04", 0.555], ["2022-03-04", 0.505], ["2022-03-04", 0.51], ["2022-03-04", 0.51], ["2022-03-04", 0.51], ["2022-03-04", 0.5], ["2022-03-05", 0.5], ["2022-03-05", 0.5], ["2022-03-05", 0.5], ["2022-03-05", 0.425], ["2022-03-05", 0.425], ["2022-03-05", 0.505], ["2022-03-05", 0.425], ["2022-03-05", 0.34], ["2022-03-05", 0.34], ["2022-03-05", 0.34], ["2022-03-05", 0.34], ["2022-03-05", 0.34], ["2022-03-05", 0.34], ["2022-03-05", 0.34], ["2022-03-05", 0.34], ["2022-03-06", 0.32], ["2022-03-06", 0.31], ["2022-03-06", 0.33], ["2022-03-06", 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2023-08-01 | Before 1 August 2023, will a US release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher? | binary |
<p>The Winds of Winter is the planned sixth novel in George R. R. Martin's "A Song of Ice and Fire" fantasy series that inspired HBO's Game of Thrones (<a href="https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/game-of-thrones" target="_blank">Rotten Tomatoes</a>). There have been rumors that it could be released in 2023, though similar claims have been made in the past (<a href="https://epicstream.com/article/winds-of-winter-release-date-2021-george-rr-martin-confirms-when-book-will-be-coming-out" target="_blank">Epic Stream</a>, <a href="https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/books/1359042/Winds-of-Winter-release-date-George-RR-Martin-blog-ASOIAF-expert-Game-of-Thrones" target="_blank">Express</a>, <a href="https://ew.com/article/2015/04/03/george-rr-martin-winds-date/" target="_blank">Entertainment Weekly</a>). A sixth novel in the series would count even if renamed from The Winds of Winter.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-08-01 | gjopen | ["https://georgerrmartin.com/notablog/2023/02/19/this-that-tother-thing/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zeno%27s_paradoxes#Dichotomy_paradox", "https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-news/george-r-r-martin-winds-of-winter-finished-1235249037/", "https://theweek.com/feature/briefing/1022767/a-complete-timeline-of-george-rr-martins-progress-on-the-winds-of-winter", "https://winteriscoming.net/2023/05/05/george-rr-martin-put-the-winds-of-winter-aside-for-a-while-write-fire-blood/", "https://georgerrmartin.com/notablog/2022/12/28/stuff-and-nonsense-4/", "https://booksofbrilliance.com/2022/08/17/george-r-r-martin-gives-update-the-winds-of-winter/#:~:text=That%20is%20great%20news%20for,one%20more%20novel%20after%20that", "https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/ye61i9/spoilers_extended_archive_of_the_ultimate_winds/", "https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/zhs745/spoilers_extended_combining_georges_recent/", "https://georgerrmartin.com/notablog/2023/07/22/actors-join-the-strike/", "https://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2022/08/house-of-the-dragon-george-r-r-martin#:~:text=%E2%80%9CI'm%20making%20progress%2C,be%20done%20when%20it's%20done", "https://wikiofthrones.com/george-r-r-martin-announces-the-release-date-for-dark-winds-season-2", "https://georgerrmartin.com/grrm_event/aug-25-27-2023/", "https://news.gallup.com/poll/6112/majority-americans-plan-vacation-summer.aspx9"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2023-02-17 | 0.0 | [["2023-02-17", 0.15], ["2023-02-17", 0.115], ["2023-02-17", 0.11], ["2023-02-18", 0.3075], ["2023-02-18", 0.346], ["2023-02-18", 0.3333], ["2023-02-18", 0.3], ["2023-02-18", 0.2725], ["2023-02-18", 0.2713], ["2023-02-19", 0.2411], ["2023-02-19", 0.217], ["2023-02-19", 0.2018], ["2023-02-20", 0.2183], ["2023-02-20", 0.234], ["2023-02-21", 0.162], ["2023-02-21", 0.113], ["2023-02-21", 0.103], ["2023-02-21", 0.1027], ["2023-02-22", 0.08], ["2023-02-22", 0.099], ["2023-02-22", 0.104], ["2023-02-22", 0.1], ["2023-02-22", 0.0909], ["2023-02-22", 0.0917], ["2023-02-24", 0.061], ["2023-02-25", 0.047], ["2023-02-25", 0.096], ["2023-03-07", 0.106], ["2023-03-10", 0.101], ["2023-03-11", 0.101], ["2023-03-16", 0.1], ["2023-03-17", 0.108], ["2023-03-19", 0.113], ["2023-03-20", 0.123], ["2023-03-23", 0.122], ["2023-03-24", 0.1155], ["2023-03-27", 0.1209], ["2023-03-30", 0.1164], ["2023-03-31", 0.1108], ["2023-04-06", 0.0758], ["2023-04-12", 0.075], ["2023-04-12", 0.0742], ["2023-04-12", 0.0733], ["2023-04-12", 0.0725], ["2023-04-12", 0.0717], ["2023-04-13", 0.0742], ["2023-04-13", 0.0733], ["2023-04-15", 0.0717], ["2023-04-18", 0.0708], ["2023-04-19", 0.0708], ["2023-04-22", 0.07], ["2023-04-28", 0.0592], ["2023-04-29", 0.0592], ["2023-05-08", 0.0617], ["2023-05-08", 0.0642], ["2023-05-13", 0.0785], ["2023-05-15", 0.0785], ["2023-05-15", 0.0708], ["2023-05-15", 0.0692], ["2023-05-24", 0.0685], ["2023-05-31", 0.0669], ["2023-06-02", 0.0592], ["2023-06-07", 0.0554], ["2023-06-11", 0.0508], ["2023-06-15", 0.0508], ["2023-06-16", 0.0485], ["2023-06-20", 0.0469], ["2023-06-21", 0.0454], ["2023-06-26", 0.0446], ["2023-06-27", 0.0438], ["2023-06-27", 0.04], ["2023-06-28", 0.0414], ["2023-06-28", 0.0414], ["2023-06-30", 0.0379], ["2023-06-30", 0.0379], ["2023-07-02", 0.035], ["2023-07-02", 0.0293], ["2023-07-03", 0.0286], ["2023-07-04", 0.0107], ["2023-07-05", 0.0107], ["2023-07-07", 0.0113], ["2023-07-07", 0.01], ["2023-07-08", 0.0093], ["2023-07-08", 0.0087], ["2023-07-09", 0.0081], ["2023-07-11", 0.0081], ["2023-07-11", 0.0081], ["2023-07-12", 0.0075], ["2023-07-12", 0.0069], ["2023-07-13", 0.0063], ["2023-07-16", 0.0056], ["2023-07-18", 0.0053], ["2023-07-19", 0.0053], ["2023-07-24", 0.0053], ["2023-07-24", 0.0053], ["2023-07-24", 0.0047], ["2023-07-25", 0.0018], ["2023-07-26", 0.0018], ["2023-07-27", 0.0017], ["2023-07-27", 0.0017], ["2023-07-30", 0.0017], ["2023-08-01", 0.0017]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2765 | True |
2021-03-01 | Between 9 November 2020 and 28 February 2021, will a country cease to formally recognize Taiwan? | binary |
<p>In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC (<a href="https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&sms=A76B7230ADF29736" target="_blank">Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs</a>). Two countries in Oceania, the Solomon Islands and Kiribati, were the countries to most recently cease to recognize the ROC (<a href="https://www.newsweek.com/who-recognizes-taiwan-two-change-china-1460559" target="_blank">Newsweek</a>).</p><p></p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>
| 2021-03-01 | gjopen | ["https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7102519/", "https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/12/china-lending-fact-of-the-day.html", "https://thediplomat.com/2020/12/washingtons-backyard-the-caribbean-amid-sino-american-competition/", "https://bbc.in/3sgME4C", "https://bit.ly/3oa0R0X", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/21/alarm-in-taiwan-as-china-aircraft-carriers-sail-through-strait", "https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/268203866.pdf", "https://reut.rs/34Xmg5N", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-taiwan-diplomacy-usa-solomons/u-s-reassessing-aid-to-solomon-islands-after-taiwan-ties-cut-idUSKBN1W32RL?rid=88752", "https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/22/asia/taiwan-coronavirus-intl-hnk/index.html", "https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4020132", "https://devpolicy.org/comparing-chinas-and-taiwans-aid-to-the-pacific-20200120/", "https://bit.ly/3hFNJ19", "https://thehill.com/opinion/international/498463-have-the-courage-to-recognize-taiwan", "https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/28801/how-covid-19-has-transformed-multilateral-diplomacy", "https://bbc.in/3b0ZgXA", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/11/10/biden-taiwan-election-trump-china/", "https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/taiwan-opens-trade-office-guyana-diplomatic-win-75674766", "https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/world/china-sharpens-language-warns-taiwan-that-independence-means-war-204579", "https://merics.org/en/briefing/china-2021-agenda-setting-anniversaries-and-potential-conflict", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/07/stronger-together-taiwan-foreign-minister-urges-new-alliance-against-china", "https://thediplomat.com/2021/02/the-strange-saga-of-taiwans-short-lived-office-in-guyana/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2020-11-09 | 0.0 | [["2020-11-10", 0.11], ["2020-11-10", 0.07], ["2020-11-10", 0.05], ["2020-11-10", 0.05], ["2020-11-10", 0.04], ["2020-11-11", 0.04], ["2020-11-11", 0.025], ["2020-11-11", 0.01], ["2020-11-11", 0.01], ["2020-11-11", 0.025], ["2020-11-11", 0.025], ["2020-11-11", 0.01], ["2020-11-11", 0.01], ["2020-11-11", 0.01], ["2020-11-11", 0.01], ["2020-11-11", 0.005], ["2020-11-12", 0.0], ["2020-11-12", 0.01], ["2020-11-12", 0.01], ["2020-11-12", 0.01], ["2020-11-12", 0.035], ["2020-11-12", 0.075], ["2020-11-12", 0.1], ["2020-11-12", 0.1], ["2020-11-12", 0.1], ["2020-11-12", 0.1], ["2020-11-12", 0.1], ["2020-11-12", 0.15], ["2020-11-12", 0.15], ["2020-11-12", 0.15], ["2020-11-13", 0.15], ["2020-11-13", 0.15], ["2020-11-13", 0.15], ["2020-11-13", 0.15], ["2020-11-13", 0.145], ["2020-11-13", 0.145], ["2020-11-13", 0.15], ["2020-11-13", 0.145], ["2020-11-13", 0.15], ["2020-11-13", 0.15], ["2020-11-13", 0.145], ["2020-11-13", 0.15], ["2020-11-14", 0.15], ["2020-11-14", 0.15], ["2020-11-15", 0.15], ["2020-11-16", 0.14], ["2020-11-16", 0.145], ["2020-11-16", 0.12], ["2020-11-16", 0.1], ["2020-11-17", 0.1], ["2020-11-17", 0.09], ["2020-11-18", 0.07], ["2020-11-20", 0.08], ["2020-11-20", 0.09], ["2020-11-20", 0.1], ["2020-11-20", 0.1], ["2020-11-20", 0.1], ["2020-11-20", 0.1], ["2020-11-20", 0.1], ["2020-11-20", 0.1], ["2020-11-20", 0.15], ["2020-11-20", 0.15], ["2020-11-20", 0.15], ["2020-11-20", 0.15], ["2020-11-20", 0.15], ["2020-11-20", 0.15], ["2020-11-21", 0.15], ["2020-11-21", 0.15], ["2020-11-22", 0.15], ["2020-11-24", 0.15], ["2020-11-24", 0.15], ["2020-11-25", 0.15], ["2020-11-26", 0.15], ["2020-11-29", 0.15], ["2020-11-30", 0.15], ["2020-12-01", 0.15], ["2020-12-02", 0.15], ["2020-12-02", 0.15], ["2020-12-02", 0.15], ["2020-12-03", 0.15], ["2020-12-03", 0.15], ["2020-12-03", 0.15], ["2020-12-04", 0.125], ["2020-12-04", 0.125], ["2020-12-04", 0.125], ["2020-12-04", 0.15], ["2020-12-04", 0.15], ["2020-12-04", 0.135], ["2020-12-04", 0.135], ["2020-12-07", 0.13], ["2020-12-07", 0.125], ["2020-12-08", 0.1], ["2020-12-08", 0.1], ["2020-12-08", 0.1], ["2020-12-08", 0.1], ["2020-12-08", 0.1], ["2020-12-08", 0.1], ["2020-12-09", 0.1], ["2020-12-09", 0.1], ["2020-12-10", 0.1], ["2020-12-10", 0.1], ["2020-12-11", 0.1], ["2020-12-11", 0.1], ["2020-12-11", 0.1], ["2020-12-11", 0.1], ["2020-12-13", 0.1], ["2020-12-13", 0.1], ["2020-12-14", 0.1], ["2020-12-15", 0.095], ["2020-12-15", 0.085], ["2020-12-15", 0.085], ["2020-12-16", 0.08], ["2020-12-16", 0.08], ["2020-12-16", 0.075], ["2020-12-16", 0.075], ["2020-12-16", 0.08], ["2020-12-16", 0.08], ["2020-12-16", 0.07], ["2020-12-16", 0.07], ["2020-12-16", 0.07], ["2020-12-18", 0.07], ["2020-12-18", 0.07], ["2020-12-19", 0.07], ["2020-12-21", 0.07], ["2020-12-21", 0.06], ["2020-12-21", 0.06], ["2020-12-21", 0.06], ["2020-12-22", 0.055], ["2020-12-23", 0.055], ["2020-12-23", 0.06], ["2020-12-23", 0.05], ["2020-12-23", 0.05], ["2020-12-23", 0.05], ["2020-12-23", 0.05], ["2020-12-23", 0.05], ["2020-12-24", 0.05], ["2020-12-24", 0.05], ["2020-12-24", 0.05], ["2020-12-24", 0.05], ["2020-12-25", 0.05], ["2020-12-25", 0.05], ["2020-12-25", 0.05], ["2020-12-26", 0.05], ["2020-12-26", 0.05], ["2020-12-26", 0.05], ["2020-12-27", 0.05], ["2020-12-27", 0.05], ["2020-12-27", 0.05], ["2020-12-27", 0.05], ["2020-12-28", 0.05], ["2020-12-29", 0.05], ["2020-12-29", 0.05], ["2020-12-29", 0.05], ["2020-12-30", 0.05], ["2021-01-01", 0.05], ["2021-01-01", 0.05], ["2021-01-02", 0.05], ["2021-01-02", 0.05], ["2021-01-02", 0.05], ["2021-01-02", 0.05], ["2021-01-03", 0.045], ["2021-01-03", 0.045], ["2021-01-03", 0.04], ["2021-01-03", 0.04], ["2021-01-03", 0.04], ["2021-01-03", 0.04], ["2021-01-04", 0.04], ["2021-01-04", 0.04], ["2021-01-05", 0.04], ["2021-01-05", 0.04], ["2021-01-06", 0.04], ["2021-01-06", 0.04], ["2021-01-08", 0.04], ["2021-01-09", 0.04], ["2021-01-09", 0.04], ["2021-01-10", 0.045], ["2021-01-10", 0.04], ["2021-01-11", 0.04], ["2021-01-11", 0.04], ["2021-01-12", 0.04], ["2021-01-13", 0.04], ["2021-01-13", 0.05], ["2021-01-14", 0.04], ["2021-01-14", 0.04], ["2021-01-14", 0.04], ["2021-01-14", 0.04], ["2021-01-15", 0.04], ["2021-01-15", 0.04], ["2021-01-16", 0.04], ["2021-01-16", 0.04], ["2021-01-17", 0.04], ["2021-01-18", 0.035], ["2021-01-18", 0.035], ["2021-01-20", 0.035], ["2021-01-20", 0.03], ["2021-01-21", 0.035], ["2021-01-22", 0.04], ["2021-01-23", 0.04], ["2021-01-24", 0.04], ["2021-01-24", 0.04], ["2021-01-24", 0.04], ["2021-01-25", 0.04], ["2021-01-25", 0.04], ["2021-01-25", 0.04], ["2021-01-26", 0.03], ["2021-01-26", 0.03], ["2021-01-27", 0.03], ["2021-01-27", 0.025], ["2021-01-28", 0.025], ["2021-01-28", 0.025], ["2021-01-28", 0.025], ["2021-01-28", 0.025], ["2021-01-28", 0.03], ["2021-01-29", 0.02], ["2021-01-30", 0.02], ["2021-01-30", 0.02], ["2021-01-31", 0.02], ["2021-01-31", 0.02], ["2021-01-31", 0.02], ["2021-02-01", 0.02], ["2021-02-02", 0.02], ["2021-02-02", 0.02], ["2021-02-02", 0.02], ["2021-02-02", 0.02], ["2021-02-02", 0.02], ["2021-02-03", 0.02], ["2021-02-04", 0.02], ["2021-02-04", 0.02], ["2021-02-04", 0.02], ["2021-02-04", 0.02], ["2021-02-04", 0.015], ["2021-02-05", 0.02], ["2021-02-05", 0.01], ["2021-02-05", 0.01], ["2021-02-06", 0.01], ["2021-02-07", 0.01], ["2021-02-07", 0.01], ["2021-02-07", 0.01], ["2021-02-07", 0.01], ["2021-02-08", 0.01], ["2021-02-08", 0.01], ["2021-02-10", 0.01], ["2021-02-11", 0.01], ["2021-02-11", 0.01], ["2021-02-12", 0.01], ["2021-02-12", 0.01], ["2021-02-12", 0.01], ["2021-02-12", 0.01], ["2021-02-13", 0.01], ["2021-02-13", 0.01], ["2021-02-14", 0.01], ["2021-02-14", 0.01], ["2021-02-14", 0.01], ["2021-02-14", 0.01], ["2021-02-15", 0.01], ["2021-02-15", 0.01], ["2021-02-15", 0.01], ["2021-02-16", 0.01], ["2021-02-16", 0.01], ["2021-02-16", 0.01], ["2021-02-17", 0.01], ["2021-02-17", 0.01], ["2021-02-19", 0.01], ["2021-02-20", 0.01], ["2021-02-20", 0.01], ["2021-02-21", 0.01], ["2021-02-21", 0.01], ["2021-02-22", 0.01], ["2021-02-22", 0.01], ["2021-02-22", 0.01], ["2021-02-22", 0.01], ["2021-02-22", 0.01], ["2021-02-23", 0.01], ["2021-02-23", 0.005], ["2021-02-23", 0.0], ["2021-02-23", 0.0], ["2021-02-23", 0.0], ["2021-02-23", 0.0], ["2021-02-23", 0.0], ["2021-02-24", 0.0], ["2021-02-24", 0.0], ["2021-02-24", 0.0], ["2021-02-24", 0.0], ["2021-02-25", 0.0], ["2021-02-25", 0.0], ["2021-02-26", 0.0], ["2021-02-27", 0.0], ["2021-02-28", 0.0], ["2021-02-28", 0.0], ["2021-02-28", 0.0], ["2021-02-28", 0.0], ["2021-03-01", 0.0], ["2021-03-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1831 | True |
2022-04-04 | Will Sir Keir Starmer face a formal challenge for the leadership of the Labour Party before 4 April 2022? | binary |
<p>Sir Keir was elected to replace Jeremy Corbyn as the leader of the UK's Labour Party in April 2020 and has faced dissention within his party's ranks (<a href="https://news.sky.com/story/labour-leadership-sir-keir-starmer-wins-contest-to-succeed-jeremy-corbyn-11968442" target="_blank">Sky News</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/aug/08/jeremy-corbyn-could-be-reinstated-as-labour-mp-under-leftwing-challenge-to-starmer" target="_blank">Guardian</a>, <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/labour-keir-starmers-leadership-in-turmoil-as-poll-finds-69-of-members-would-prefer-andy-burnham-in-charge-12345377" target="_blank">Sky News</a>). The Labour Party requires that a challenger or challengers be nominated by 20% of all Labour Party MPs (<a href="https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/labour-party-leadership-contests" target="_blank">Institute for Government</a>, <a href="https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Rule-Book-2020.pdf" target="_blank">Labour Party Rule Book 2020</a>, see Chapter 4, Clause II).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-04-04 | gjopen | ["https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/lisa-nandy-labour-leadership-starmer-b1926396.html", "https://theconversation.com/labour-party-conference-the-dispute-around-rule-changes-explained-in-brief-168740", "https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-5870068", "https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/20/will-the-tories-hand-back-russian-cash-as-putin-threatens-war", "https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/sep/24/keir-starmer-centrists-leader-essay-party-modernise", "https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/should-keir-starmer-remain-as-leader-of-the-labour-party", "https://news.sky.com/story/labour-keir-starmers-leadership-in-turmoil-as-poll-finds-69-of-members-would-prefer-andy-burnham-in-charge-12345377", "https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/sep/28/labour-keir-starmer-replacement-opposition-leader", "https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Keir_Starmer?content=trackers", "https://www.britannica.com/topic/Labour-Party-political-party", "https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-60353516", "https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-trouble-with-angiemania-", "https://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/politics/article/labour-party-messiah", "https://news.sky.com/story/labour-leadership-sir-keir-starmer-wins-contest-to-succeed-jeremy-corbyn-11968442", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1325867", "https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-60336606", "https://www.politicshome.com/thehouse/article/andy-burnham-im-not-hatching-any-plans-to-get-back-to-westminster-any-time-soon", "https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-news-uk-latest-live-boris-johnson-party-new-rules-plan-b-covid-12469075?postid=3087710#liveblog-body", "https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/aug/03/labours-factions-keir-starmer-left-party-right", "https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/keir-starmer-wins-vote-change-rules-hard-left-labour-mps-never-leader-1219537", "https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/labour-party-leadership-contests", "https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/keir-starmer-approval-rating", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/02/world/europe/labor-by-election-victory-batley-and-spen.html", "https://newlinesmag.com/argument/keir-starmer-won-the-war-within-labour-but-can-he-win-an-election/", "https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10582937/Starmer-calls-Ukraine-political-unity-demanding-Boris-Johnson-resign-Partygate.html"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2021-08-19 | 0.0 | [["2021-08-20", 0.33], ["2021-08-20", 0.25], ["2021-08-20", 0.25], ["2021-08-20", 0.25], ["2021-08-20", 0.25], ["2021-08-20", 0.25], ["2021-08-20", 0.25], ["2021-08-20", 0.25], ["2021-08-20", 0.225], ["2021-08-20", 0.25], ["2021-08-20", 0.25], ["2021-08-20", 0.32], ["2021-08-20", 0.25], ["2021-08-21", 0.225], 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["2021-10-19", 0.06], ["2021-10-19", 0.06], ["2021-10-19", 0.06], ["2021-10-20", 0.06], ["2021-10-21", 0.06], ["2021-10-21", 0.06], ["2021-10-21", 0.06], ["2021-10-21", 0.06], ["2021-10-21", 0.06], ["2021-10-21", 0.065], ["2021-10-22", 0.06], ["2021-10-22", 0.06], ["2021-10-22", 0.06], ["2021-10-23", 0.06], ["2021-10-24", 0.06], ["2021-10-24", 0.06], ["2021-10-25", 0.06], ["2021-10-25", 0.06], ["2021-10-28", 0.06], ["2021-10-28", 0.06], ["2021-10-29", 0.06], ["2021-11-03", 0.06], ["2021-11-03", 0.06], ["2021-11-04", 0.06], ["2021-11-07", 0.06], ["2021-11-08", 0.06], ["2021-11-09", 0.06], ["2021-11-11", 0.06], ["2021-11-11", 0.06], ["2021-11-16", 0.06], ["2021-11-17", 0.06], ["2021-11-17", 0.06], ["2021-11-19", 0.06], ["2021-11-22", 0.05], ["2021-11-22", 0.05], ["2021-11-22", 0.05], ["2021-11-22", 0.05], ["2021-11-23", 0.05], ["2021-11-25", 0.05], ["2021-11-26", 0.05], ["2021-11-27", 0.05], ["2021-11-27", 0.05], ["2021-11-30", 0.05], ["2021-11-30", 0.05], ["2021-12-01", 0.05], ["2021-12-01", 0.05], ["2021-12-03", 0.05], ["2021-12-03", 0.05], ["2021-12-03", 0.05], ["2021-12-05", 0.05], ["2021-12-06", 0.05], ["2021-12-06", 0.05], ["2021-12-08", 0.05], ["2021-12-10", 0.05], ["2021-12-10", 0.05], ["2021-12-11", 0.05], ["2021-12-11", 0.05], ["2021-12-13", 0.05], ["2021-12-13", 0.05], ["2021-12-13", 0.05], ["2021-12-14", 0.045], ["2021-12-15", 0.045], ["2021-12-15", 0.045], ["2021-12-16", 0.04], ["2021-12-16", 0.04], ["2021-12-19", 0.04], ["2021-12-19", 0.04], ["2021-12-20", 0.04], ["2021-12-20", 0.04], ["2021-12-20", 0.04], ["2021-12-22", 0.04], ["2021-12-27", 0.04], ["2021-12-27", 0.04], ["2021-12-28", 0.04], ["2021-12-28", 0.03], ["2021-12-29", 0.035], ["2021-12-29", 0.035], ["2022-01-01", 0.03], ["2022-01-01", 0.03], ["2022-01-01", 0.03], ["2022-01-01", 0.03], ["2022-01-02", 0.03], ["2022-01-02", 0.03], ["2022-01-02", 0.03], ["2022-01-02", 0.03], ["2022-01-03", 0.03], ["2022-01-03", 0.025], ["2022-01-04", 0.025], ["2022-01-04", 0.02], ["2022-01-04", 0.02], ["2022-01-04", 0.02], ["2022-01-05", 0.02], ["2022-01-05", 0.02], ["2022-01-05", 0.01], ["2022-01-05", 0.01], ["2022-01-06", 0.01], ["2022-01-06", 0.01], ["2022-01-06", 0.01], ["2022-01-07", 0.01], ["2022-01-07", 0.01], ["2022-01-07", 0.01], ["2022-01-07", 0.01], ["2022-01-07", 0.01], ["2022-01-08", 0.01], ["2022-01-08", 0.01], ["2022-01-09", 0.01], ["2022-01-09", 0.01], ["2022-01-10", 0.01], ["2022-01-11", 0.01], ["2022-01-12", 0.01], ["2022-01-12", 0.01], ["2022-01-13", 0.01], ["2022-01-14", 0.01], ["2022-01-14", 0.01], ["2022-01-14", 0.01], ["2022-01-16", 0.01], ["2022-01-16", 0.01], ["2022-01-17", 0.01], ["2022-01-17", 0.01], ["2022-01-17", 0.01], ["2022-01-19", 0.01], ["2022-01-19", 0.01], ["2022-01-20", 0.01], ["2022-01-20", 0.01], ["2022-01-22", 0.01], ["2022-01-24", 0.01], ["2022-01-24", 0.01], ["2022-01-25", 0.01], ["2022-01-25", 0.01], ["2022-01-26", 0.01], ["2022-01-26", 0.01], ["2022-01-27", 0.01], ["2022-01-27", 0.01], ["2022-01-27", 0.01], ["2022-01-30", 0.01], ["2022-01-31", 0.01], ["2022-01-31", 0.01], ["2022-02-01", 0.01], ["2022-02-02", 0.01], ["2022-02-02", 0.01], ["2022-02-03", 0.01], ["2022-02-03", 0.01], ["2022-02-03", 0.0], ["2022-02-04", 0.0], ["2022-02-05", 0.0], ["2022-02-05", 0.0], ["2022-02-05", 0.0], ["2022-02-07", 0.0], ["2022-02-07", 0.0], ["2022-02-07", 0.0], ["2022-02-08", 0.0], ["2022-02-08", 0.0], ["2022-02-08", 0.0], ["2022-02-08", 0.0], ["2022-02-08", 0.0], ["2022-02-08", 0.0], ["2022-02-08", 0.0], ["2022-02-08", 0.0], ["2022-02-08", 0.0], ["2022-02-09", 0.0], ["2022-02-09", 0.0], ["2022-02-09", 0.0], ["2022-02-09", 0.0], ["2022-02-09", 0.0], ["2022-02-09", 0.0], ["2022-02-09", 0.0], ["2022-02-10", 0.0], ["2022-02-10", 0.0], ["2022-02-10", 0.0], ["2022-02-10", 0.0], ["2022-02-11", 0.0], ["2022-02-12", 0.0], ["2022-02-14", 0.0], ["2022-02-14", 0.0], ["2022-02-16", 0.0], ["2022-02-17", 0.0], ["2022-02-18", 0.0], ["2022-02-19", 0.0], ["2022-02-20", 0.0], ["2022-02-20", 0.0], ["2022-02-21", 0.0], ["2022-02-21", 0.0], 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["2022-03-22", 0.0], ["2022-03-23", 0.0], ["2022-03-24", 0.0], ["2022-03-25", 0.0], ["2022-03-26", 0.0], ["2022-03-28", 0.0], ["2022-03-28", 0.0], ["2022-03-28", 0.0], ["2022-03-28", 0.0], ["2022-03-28", 0.0], ["2022-03-29", 0.0], ["2022-03-30", 0.0], ["2022-03-30", 0.0], ["2022-03-31", 0.0], ["2022-03-31", 0.0], ["2022-03-31", 0.0], ["2022-04-01", 0.0], ["2022-04-02", 0.0], ["2022-04-02", 0.0], ["2022-04-03", 0.0], ["2022-04-03", 0.0], ["2022-04-04", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2104 | True |
2023-03-15 | Will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of flying a military aircraft over the territory of and/or the territorial waters surrounding the main island of Taiwan without its permission before 15 March 2023? | binary |
<p>The People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has been consistently sending military aircraft into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) with growing numbers of aircraft, though not its national airspace (<a href="https://www.newsweek.com/taiwan-military-tracks-china-drone-uav-air-defense-identification-zone-1740045" target="_blank">Newsweek</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/01/chinas-violations-suggest-taiwan-decapitation-rehearsal-00054568" target="_blank">Politico</a>). For the purposes of this question, "territorial waters" means the sea within 12 nautical miles of the shore of the main island of Taiwan, and military drones would count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 10 February 2023</span>: For the purposes of this question, high altitude balloons are not considered aircraft.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-03-15 | gjopen | ["https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/4000912?ln=en", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-will-focus-on-preparing-for-war-xi-jinping-declares/ar-AA13RBoR", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/10/world/asia/china-taiwan-drones.html", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-64094261", "https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/china-taiwan-us-defense-spending-bill-rcna63221", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/taiwan-tracks-military-drone-from-china-in-air-defense-zone/ar-AA11vWwS", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_defense_identification_zone", "https://twitter.com/MoNDefense/status/1592712040199892993", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shi_Islet", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-64167052", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airspace", "https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/09/politics/taiwan-invasion-war-game-intl-hnk-ml/index.html", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unmanned_aerial_vehicle", "https://www.newsweek.com/taiwan-military-tracks-china-drone-uav-air-defense-identification-zone-1740045", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/11/03/taiwan-china-xi-war-invasion-threat/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_Strait#Median_line", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/taiwan-tracks-military-drone-from-china-in-air-defense-zone/ar-AA11vWwSI", "https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/taiwan-china-drone-shot-down-first-time-xi-jinping-rcna45813", "https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/4000912/files/S_PV.9245-EN.pdf?ln=en", "https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/taiwan-china-drone-shot-down-first-time-xi-jinping-rcna45813Do"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2022-09-09 | 0.0 | [["2022-09-09", 0.1], ["2022-09-09", 0.055], ["2022-09-09", 0.1533], ["2022-09-09", 0.365], ["2022-09-09", 0.316], ["2022-09-09", 0.28], ["2022-09-09", 0.2543], ["2022-09-09", 0.3475], ["2022-09-09", 0.31], ["2022-09-09", 0.369], ["2022-09-09", 0.3518], ["2022-09-09", 0.3933], ["2022-09-10", 0.3838], ["2022-09-10", 0.4279], ["2022-09-10", 0.4027], ["2022-09-10", 0.3894], ["2022-09-10", 0.3694], ["2022-09-10", 0.3506], ["2022-09-10", 0.34], ["2022-09-10", 0.3405], ["2022-09-10", 0.3735], ["2022-09-10", 0.3567], ["2022-09-10", 0.3473], ["2022-09-10", 0.3691], ["2022-09-10", 0.3561], ["2022-09-11", 0.3425], ["2022-09-11", 0.3288], ["2022-09-11", 0.3462], ["2022-09-11", 0.337], ["2022-09-11", 0.3304], ["2022-09-11", 0.3193], ["2022-09-11", 0.3193], ["2022-09-11", 0.3417], ["2022-09-11", 0.342], ["2022-09-11", 0.3552], ["2022-09-11", 0.3439], ["2022-09-11", 0.3416], ["2022-09-11", 0.3388], ["2022-09-12", 0.3515], ["2022-09-12", 0.3441], ["2022-09-12", 0.3444], ["2022-09-12", 0.3517], ["2022-09-12", 0.3697], ["2022-09-12", 0.3814], ["2022-09-12", 0.3929], ["2022-09-12", 0.3945], ["2022-09-12", 0.3971], ["2022-09-12", 0.4023], ["2022-09-12", 0.4036], ["2022-09-12", 0.4054], ["2022-09-12", 0.4194], ["2022-09-12", 0.4106], ["2022-09-12", 0.4024], ["2022-09-12", 0.4147], ["2022-09-12", 0.4232], ["2022-09-12", 0.429], ["2022-09-13", 0.4182], ["2022-09-13", 0.4122], ["2022-09-13", 0.4209], ["2022-09-13", 0.4309], ["2022-09-13", 0.4339], ["2022-09-13", 0.4418], ["2022-09-13", 0.4421], ["2022-09-13", 0.448], ["2022-09-13", 0.4467], ["2022-09-14", 0.4921], ["2022-09-14", 0.5062], ["2022-09-14", 0.5142], ["2022-09-15", 0.5158], ["2022-09-15", 0.5208], ["2022-09-15", 0.5035], ["2022-09-15", 0.5181], ["2022-09-15", 0.4818], ["2022-09-16", 0.4864], ["2022-09-16", 0.4674], ["2022-09-16", 0.4252], ["2022-09-17", 0.4122], ["2022-09-17", 0.4078], ["2022-09-17", 0.41], ["2022-09-18", 0.4143], ["2022-09-18", 0.4143], ["2022-09-18", 0.4139], ["2022-09-19", 0.4496], ["2022-09-19", 0.4496], ["2022-09-19", 0.4417], ["2022-09-20", 0.4433], ["2022-09-21", 0.4233], ["2022-09-22", 0.4242], ["2022-09-22", 0.4325], ["2022-09-23", 0.4158], ["2022-09-23", 0.3908], ["2022-09-23", 0.3879], ["2022-09-23", 0.3858], ["2022-09-23", 0.3908], ["2022-09-23", 0.4017], ["2022-09-23", 0.4008], ["2022-09-24", 0.4008], ["2022-09-24", 0.3967], ["2022-09-25", 0.3888], ["2022-09-25", 0.3888], ["2022-09-26", 0.36], ["2022-09-26", 0.3692], ["2022-09-27", 0.3684], ["2022-09-27", 0.3819], ["2022-09-28", 0.3819], ["2022-09-28", 0.36], ["2022-09-28", 0.3763], ["2022-09-29", 0.3522], ["2022-09-30", 0.3664], ["2022-09-30", 0.3664], ["2022-09-30", 0.3629], ["2022-09-30", 0.3814], ["2022-10-02", 0.3818], ["2022-10-02", 0.3604], ["2022-10-03", 0.3604], ["2022-10-03", 0.36], ["2022-10-04", 0.3604], ["2022-10-05", 0.3607], ["2022-10-05", 0.3679], ["2022-10-06", 0.3657], ["2022-10-06", 0.3657], ["2022-10-06", 0.3603], ["2022-10-06", 0.359], ["2022-10-07", 0.3593], ["2022-10-08", 0.3593], ["2022-10-08", 0.3559], ["2022-10-08", 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0.3794], ["2022-10-29", 0.38], ["2022-10-31", 0.38], ["2022-10-31", 0.3803], ["2022-10-31", 0.3788], ["2022-10-31", 0.3779], ["2022-11-01", 0.3773], ["2022-11-02", 0.3773], ["2022-11-02", 0.3773], ["2022-11-03", 0.3803], ["2022-11-03", 0.3767], ["2022-11-03", 0.3858], ["2022-11-04", 0.3845], ["2022-11-04", 0.3845], ["2022-11-05", 0.3918], ["2022-11-05", 0.3891], ["2022-11-06", 0.3894], ["2022-11-06", 0.3624], ["2022-11-08", 0.3621], ["2022-11-09", 0.3618], ["2022-11-10", 0.3615], ["2022-11-10", 0.3685], ["2022-11-10", 0.3635], ["2022-11-10", 0.3632], ["2022-11-11", 0.3474], ["2022-11-11", 0.3459], ["2022-11-12", 0.3385], ["2022-11-14", 0.3347], ["2022-11-15", 0.3224], ["2022-11-16", 0.3224], ["2022-11-16", 0.3218], ["2022-11-17", 0.3182], ["2022-11-19", 0.3182], ["2022-11-19", 0.3182], ["2022-11-19", 0.3], ["2022-11-20", 0.2997], ["2022-11-20", 0.2965], ["2022-11-20", 0.2965], ["2022-11-20", 0.2876], ["2022-11-21", 0.2874], ["2022-11-21", 0.295], ["2022-11-22", 0.2918], ["2022-11-22", 0.2885], ["2022-11-22", 0.2988], ["2022-11-23", 0.2694], ["2022-11-24", 0.2688], ["2022-11-25", 0.2894], ["2022-11-25", 0.2894], ["2022-11-26", 0.2937], ["2022-11-26", 0.2937], ["2022-11-26", 0.2937], ["2022-11-26", 0.2937], ["2022-11-27", 0.2851], ["2022-11-28", 0.2929], ["2022-11-29", 0.2946], ["2022-11-30", 0.296], ["2022-12-01", 0.2957], ["2022-12-01", 0.2946], ["2022-12-02", 0.2943], ["2022-12-03", 0.2943], ["2022-12-03", 0.2917], ["2022-12-05", 0.2917], ["2022-12-05", 0.2974], ["2022-12-05", 0.29], ["2022-12-05", 0.2934], ["2022-12-06", 0.2906], ["2022-12-06", 0.2908], ["2022-12-06", 0.2917], ["2022-12-08", 0.2914], ["2022-12-10", 0.2928], ["2022-12-10", 0.2931], ["2022-12-11", 0.2931], ["2022-12-11", 0.2864], ["2022-12-12", 0.2861], ["2022-12-12", 0.2792], ["2022-12-12", 0.2806], ["2022-12-12", 0.2794], ["2022-12-13", 0.2792], ["2022-12-14", 0.2794], ["2022-12-14", 0.2794], ["2022-12-16", 0.2797], ["2022-12-17", 0.2839], ["2022-12-17", 0.2836], ["2022-12-17", 0.2833], ["2022-12-18", 0.28], ["2022-12-19", 0.2797], ["2022-12-20", 0.2756], ["2022-12-21", 0.2753], ["2022-12-21", 0.2739], ["2022-12-21", 0.2758], ["2022-12-23", 0.2756], ["2022-12-24", 0.2756], ["2022-12-25", 0.2744], ["2022-12-26", 0.2739], ["2022-12-26", 0.2711], ["2022-12-26", 0.2711], ["2022-12-26", 0.2722], ["2022-12-26", 0.2744], ["2022-12-26", 0.2958], ["2022-12-26", 0.3149], ["2022-12-26", 0.3146], ["2022-12-27", 0.3176], ["2022-12-27", 0.3203], ["2022-12-27", 0.3181], ["2022-12-27", 0.3222], ["2022-12-28", 0.3219], ["2022-12-29", 0.3173], ["2022-12-29", 0.3189], ["2022-12-29", 0.3149], ["2022-12-30", 0.3273], ["2023-01-02", 0.3273], ["2023-01-02", 0.3268], ["2023-01-02", 0.3284], ["2023-01-03", 0.3273], ["2023-01-03", 0.3273], ["2023-01-04", 0.3097], ["2023-01-05", 0.3092], ["2023-01-05", 0.3078], ["2023-01-05", 0.2997], ["2023-01-06", 0.2892], ["2023-01-06", 0.2879], ["2023-01-07", 0.2876], ["2023-01-08", 0.285], ["2023-01-09", 0.285], ["2023-01-10", 0.285], ["2023-01-11", 0.2592], ["2023-01-11", 0.2576], ["2023-01-12", 0.2524], ["2023-01-12", 0.2521], ["2023-01-12", 0.2526], ["2023-01-12", 0.2329], ["2023-01-12", 0.2329], ["2023-01-13", 0.2326], ["2023-01-13", 0.2334], ["2023-01-13", 0.2332], ["2023-01-13", 0.2108], ["2023-01-14", 0.2105], ["2023-01-14", 0.2077], ["2023-01-16", 0.2028], ["2023-01-16", 0.2023], ["2023-01-17", 0.2023], ["2023-01-17", 0.2013], ["2023-01-18", 0.2013], ["2023-01-19", 0.2005], ["2023-01-19", 0.1969], ["2023-01-19", 0.1969], ["2023-01-19", 0.1946], ["2023-01-19", 0.1936], ["2023-01-20", 0.1923], ["2023-01-20", 0.1921], ["2023-01-20", 0.1879], ["2023-01-21", 0.1872], ["2023-01-22", 0.1764], ["2023-01-23", 0.1685], ["2023-01-23", 0.1682], ["2023-01-23", 0.1679], ["2023-01-23", 0.1621], ["2023-01-24", 0.1618], ["2023-01-25", 0.1618], ["2023-01-25", 0.1613], ["2023-01-25", 0.159], ["2023-01-26", 0.1564], ["2023-01-26", 0.1562], ["2023-01-28", 0.1562], ["2023-01-28", 0.1556], ["2023-01-29", 0.1479], ["2023-01-29", 0.1469], ["2023-01-30", 0.1462], ["2023-01-30", 0.1456], ["2023-01-31", 0.1449], ["2023-01-31", 0.1436], ["2023-02-01", 0.1377], ["2023-02-01", 0.1172], ["2023-02-01", 0.1167], ["2023-02-01", 0.1159], ["2023-02-05", 0.1154], ["2023-02-05", 0.1149], ["2023-02-06", 0.1144], ["2023-02-06", 0.1138], ["2023-02-06", 0.1136], ["2023-02-06", 0.1136], ["2023-02-06", 0.1133], ["2023-02-06", 0.1151], ["2023-02-06", 0.1121], ["2023-02-06", 0.1105], ["2023-02-07", 0.1079], ["2023-02-07", 0.1008], ["2023-02-07", 0.1005], ["2023-02-09", 0.1003], ["2023-02-09", 0.1], ["2023-02-09", 0.0962], ["2023-02-10", 0.0956], ["2023-02-13", 0.0962], ["2023-02-15", 0.0956], ["2023-02-15", 0.0949], ["2023-02-15", 0.0946], ["2023-02-15", 0.0831], ["2023-02-16", 0.0828], ["2023-02-17", 0.0826], ["2023-02-19", 0.0826], ["2023-02-21", 0.0823], ["2023-02-21", 0.0818], ["2023-02-22", 0.0815], ["2023-02-22", 0.0662], ["2023-02-22", 0.0644], ["2023-02-23", 0.0641], ["2023-02-24", 0.0638], ["2023-02-25", 0.0633], ["2023-02-25", 0.0618], ["2023-02-28", 0.0615], ["2023-02-28", 0.0613], ["2023-02-28", 0.0592], ["2023-02-28", 0.0578], ["2023-03-01", 0.0568], ["2023-03-02", 0.0565], ["2023-03-03", 0.0478], ["2023-03-04", 0.0473], ["2023-03-04", 0.046], ["2023-03-04", 0.046], ["2023-03-04", 0.0449], ["2023-03-04", 0.0449], ["2023-03-05", 0.0449], ["2023-03-05", 0.0424], ["2023-03-05", 0.0412], ["2023-03-06", 0.041], ["2023-03-06", 0.0402], ["2023-03-06", 0.04], ["2023-03-06", 0.0398], ["2023-03-07", 0.0395], ["2023-03-07", 0.0386], ["2023-03-08", 0.0383], ["2023-03-08", 0.0383], ["2023-03-08", 0.0383], ["2023-03-08", 0.0355], ["2023-03-08", 0.0348], ["2023-03-08", 0.0333], ["2023-03-09", 0.0329], ["2023-03-09", 0.0319], ["2023-03-10", 0.0298], ["2023-03-10", 0.0238], ["2023-03-10", 0.0238], ["2023-03-11", 0.0231], ["2023-03-11", 0.0219], ["2023-03-14", 0.0207], ["2023-03-14", 0.0205], ["2023-03-14", 0.0205], ["2023-03-14", 0.02], ["2023-03-14", 0.0198], ["2023-03-14", 0.0174], ["2023-03-14", 0.0171], ["2023-03-15", 0.0171]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2544 | True |
2023-03-01 | Will SpaceX's first Starship orbital flight test be launched successfully before 1 March 2023? | binary |
<p>SpaceX is looking to launch its first orbital flight test as soon as December 2022, though obstacles remain (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2022/11/18/new-spacecraft-and-missions-to-watch-in-2023" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.cnet.com/science/space/starship-could-launch-just-a-few-weeks-after-nasas-first-artemis-mission/" target="_blank">CNET</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/11/spacex-shakes-up-starbase-leadership-in-starship-push.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-orbital-launch-december" target="_blank">Space.com</a>). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful first stage separation (<a href="https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-super-heavy-14-engine-test-fire" target="_blank">Space.com</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-03-01 | gjopen | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_fallacy#:~:text=The%20planning%20fallacy%20is%20a,and%20underestimate%20the%20time%20needed", "https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/01/spacex-may-perform-a-wet-dress-rehearsal-of-its-starship-launch-system-today/", "https://www.cnet.com/science/space/elon-musk-updates-timeline-for-starship-to-finally-launch-to-space/", "https://www.cnet.com/science/space/spacex-prepping-for-first-full-test-fire-of-its-mega-starship-rocket/", "https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=56074.1100", "https://spacenews.com/spacex-edges-closer-to-first-starship-orbital-launch-attempt/", "https://www.faa.gov/space/stakeholder_engagement/spacex_starship", "https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1617676629001801728", "https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-starship-full-stack-aces-wet-dress-rehearsal/amp/", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/elon-musk-says-to-attempt-starship-launch-in-march/ar-AA176Y5h", "https://twitter.com/engadget/status/1622736921561538562", "https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-first-orbital-launch-march-confirmed", "https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjZlNG67dj8AhU0EVkFHcq-A9sQFnoECAwQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.space.com%2Fspacex-nasa-crew-6-launch-february-26&usg=AOvVaw13mnVVMIzsrt2Bb-QmSIXw", "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1622373225438089216", "https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-starship-booster-survives-most-powerful-static-fire-in-history/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K9DqZjOcoRs", "https://techcrunch.com/2023/01/23/with-starship-testing-spacex-moves-one-step-closer-to-making-science-fiction-a-reality/", "https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-64590317", "https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/24/spacex-completes-starship-rocket-test-in-prep-for-first-orbital-launch.html", "https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/technology/spacex-eyeing-march-for-1st-starship-orbital-flight-elon-musk-says/ar-AA17ae24", "https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2023/01/starship-update-jan-23/", "https://www.reuters.com/technology/spacex-test-fires-starship-booster-key-milestone-debut-orbital-launch-2023-02-09/", "https://www.spacelaunchschedule.com/launch/starship-orbital-flight-test/", "https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/01/spacex-may-perform-a-wet-dress-rehearsal-of-its-starship-launch-system-today", "https://www.space.com/spacex-first-starship-orbital-launch-march-elon-musk"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2022-11-18 | 0.0 | [["2022-11-18", 1.0], ["2022-11-18", 0.8575], ["2022-11-18", 0.8633], ["2022-11-19", 0.8025], ["2022-11-19", 0.798], ["2022-11-19", 0.745], ["2022-11-19", 0.7031], ["2022-11-19", 0.6633], ["2022-11-19", 0.6588], ["2022-11-19", 0.65], ["2022-11-19", 0.6405], ["2022-11-19", 0.63], ["2022-11-19", 0.6052], ["2022-11-19", 0.5928], ["2022-11-19", 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0.1288], ["2023-02-26", 0.1272], ["2023-02-26", 0.1268], ["2023-02-27", 0.1248], ["2023-02-27", 0.1247], ["2023-02-28", 0.1319], ["2023-02-28", 0.1309], ["2023-02-28", 0.1308], ["2023-02-28", 0.1308], ["2023-03-01", 0.1308], ["2023-03-01", 0.1308]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2636 | True |
2021-03-01 | Will the People's Republic of China (PRC) officially declare an air-defense identification zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 March 2021? | binary |
<p>In recent years, there has been speculation that China would declare an ADIZ over the South China Sea (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/south-east-asian-countries-are-trapped-between-two-superpowers" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://nationalinterest.org/feature/will-china-set-air-defense-identification-zone-south-china-sea-160896" target="_blank">National Interest</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2016/07/13/asia/south-china-sea-ruling-reaction-adiz/" target="_blank">CNN</a>). An extension of the existing East China Sea ADIZ to cover part of the South China Sea would count. For more information on air defense identification zones and the conflict in the South China Sea, see: <a href="https://defense.info/global-dynamics/2020/08/will-china-declare-an-air-defense-identification-zone-in-south-china-sea/" target="_blank">Defense.info</a>, <a href="https://www.economist.com/china/2020/06/17/chinas-next-move-in-the-south-china-sea" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://globalnation.inquirer.net/188899/china-plan-to-control-south-china-sea-airspace-dangerous-says-lorenzana" target="_blank">Inquirer.net</a>.</p><p></p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-03-01 | gjopen | ["https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3111204/south-china-sea-beijing-doesnt-want-upset-neighbours-air", "https://news.usni.org/2020/12/22/report-on-u-s-china-competition-in-east-south-china-sea-4", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1211237", "http://www.scspi.org/en/dtfx/why-there-no-south-china-sea-air-defense-identification-zone", "https://www.lawfareblog.com/water-wars-chinese-military-takes-aim-while-bidens-china-strategy-takes-shape", "https://www.rand.org/blog/2020/12/taiwan-may-be-more-at-ease-with-the-biden-administration.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-23/china-adopts-law-letting-coast-guard-fire-on-foreign-vessels", "https://thediplomat.com/2020/11/is-china-preparing-to-set-up-an-adiz-in-the-south-china-sea-with-taiwan-in-mind/", "https://thediplomat.com/2020/11/is-biden-preparing-to-tweak-the-indo-pacific-strategy/", "https://www.military.com/daily-news/2021/01/25/taiwan-now-flashpoint-biden-administrations-china-policy-flournoy-says.html?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EBB%2001.26.21&utm_term=Editorial%20-%20Early%20Bird%20Brief", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-taiwan-china-security-idUSKBN29S0BK", "https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R43894.pdf", "https://www.npr.org/2021/01/19/958468971/pompeo-accuses-china-of-genocide-against-muslim-uighurs-in-xinjiang", "https://theaviationist.com/2021/01/24/eight-chinese-h-6k-bombers-flew-inside-taiwans-air-defense-zone-as-u-s-aircraft-carrier-entered-south-china-sea/", "https://www.indepthnews.net/index.php/opinion/4099-asean-holds-the-reins-in-the-south-china-sea", "https://www.newsweek.com/taiwan-lawmaker-accuses-chinas-xi-jinping-hypocrisy-after-davos-speech-1564826", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-coastguard-law/china-authorises-coast-guard-to-fire-on-foreign-vessels-if-needed-idUSKBN29R1ER", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-taiwan-china-security/taiwan-reports-large-incursion-by-chinese-air-force-idUSKBN29S0BK?feedType=mktg&feedName=topNews&WT.mc_id=Partner-Google", "https://thediplomat.com/2021/02/first-biden-xi-phone-call-shows-not-much-has-changed-in-us-china-relations/", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55851052?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EBB%2001.29.21&utm_term=Editorial%20-%20Early%20Bird%20Brief", "https://www.npr.org/2021/01/23/959683134/what-trumps-declassified-asia-strategy-may-mean-for-u-s-china-relations-under-bi?ft=nprml&f=1001", "https://reut.rs/3jyrf36", "https://bit.ly/2YZ6OCO", "https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/china-flexes-muscles-to-us-in-south-china-sea-after-promising-to-open-fire/news-story/48fecab56846fb19d2c0b7fd453f7789", "https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1380225/south-china-sea-news-us-china-world-war-3-mike-pompeo-global-times-military-latest-ont"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2020-11-09 | 0.0 | [["2020-11-10", 0.05], ["2020-11-10", 0.15], ["2020-11-10", 0.05], ["2020-11-10", 0.15], ["2020-11-10", 0.05], ["2020-11-10", 0.05], ["2020-11-10", 0.05], ["2020-11-10", 0.05], ["2020-11-10", 0.075], ["2020-11-10", 0.05], ["2020-11-10", 0.075], ["2020-11-11", 0.035], ["2020-11-11", 0.035], ["2020-11-11", 0.02], ["2020-11-11", 0.035], ["2020-11-11", 0.06], ["2020-11-11", 0.06], ["2020-11-11", 0.095], ["2020-11-11", 0.12], 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["2021-02-28", 0.0], ["2021-02-28", 0.0], ["2021-03-01", 0.0], ["2021-03-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1832 | True |
2022-01-01 | Before 1 January 2022, will the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and/or People's Armed Police (PAP) engage in a confrontation with Hong Kongers? | binary |
<p>Protests in Hong Kong that began in June 2019 have evolved into broader anti-government protests that are widening rifts between Hong Kong and China (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/china-army-hongkong/" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2021/02/24/china-HongKong-police-army-marching/2941614176062/" target="_blank">UPI</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-56356046" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/hong-kong-freedoms-democracy-protests-china-crackdown" target="_blank">Council on Foreign Relations</a>). The confrontation must take place in Hong Kong to count. </p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-01-03 | gjopen | ["https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/hong-kong-waiter-sentenced-to-nine-years-in-jail-under-security-law-20210730-p58ef3.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1267989", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-56264117", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Hong_Kong_legislative_election", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Hong_Kong_electoral_changes", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1982-before-1-january-2022-will-the-people-s-liberation-army-pla-and-or-people-s-armed-police-pap-engage-in-a-confrontation-with-hong-kongers/www.smh.com.au/world/asia/hong-kong-waiter-sentenced-to-nine-years-in-jail-under-security-law-20210730-p58ef3.html", "http://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/hong-kong-waiter-sentenced-to-nine-years-in-jail-under-security-law-20210730-p58ef3.html", "https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/30/china/us-china-relationship-tianjin-meeting-intl-mic-hnk/index.html", "https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55847572", "https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2021-04-06/us-considers-boycott-2022-olympics", "https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2021/07/us-military-should-return-vietnam/183609/", "https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3019960/will-china-send-troops-stamp-out-protests-hong-kong", "https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3038049/pla-soldiers-sent-streets-hong-kong-first-time-protests", "https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/vietnamese-laud-improved-relations-us-tentative-biden", "https://multimedia.scmp.com/infographics/news/hong-kong/article/3016815/hong-kong-protest-city/index.html", "https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/law-and-crime/article/3136254/taxi-driver-arrested-after-crashing-pla-garrison-hong", "https://www.aninews.in/news/world/asia/chinese-communist-party-crushing-hong-kongs-democracy20210320184339/", "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/hong-kong-democracy-leaders-given-jail-terms-amid-crackdown/articleshow/82101667.cms", "https://www.lawfareblog.com/hong-kongs-election-overhaul-context", "https://www.universityworldnews.com/post.php?story=20210420141637910", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-protests-military-exclusive-idUSKBN2150JZ", "https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/law-and-crime/article/3139555/man-who-stabbed-hong-kong-police-officer-left-multiple", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-protests-military-exclusive/exclusive-chinas-internal-security-force-on-frontlines-of-hong-kong-protests-idUSKBN2150JZ", "https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/hong-kong-freedoms-democracy-protests-china-crackdown"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2021-04-09 | 0.0 | [["2021-04-23", 0.11], ["2021-04-23", 0.105], ["2021-04-23", 0.11], ["2021-04-23", 0.155], ["2021-04-23", 0.11], ["2021-04-23", 0.105], ["2021-04-23", 0.1], 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["2021-08-12", 0.04], ["2021-08-13", 0.04], ["2021-08-16", 0.04], ["2021-08-21", 0.04], ["2021-08-24", 0.035], ["2021-08-24", 0.035], ["2021-08-24", 0.03], ["2021-08-26", 0.03], ["2021-08-28", 0.03], ["2021-08-28", 0.03], ["2021-08-31", 0.03], ["2021-09-01", 0.03], ["2021-09-02", 0.03], ["2021-09-02", 0.03], ["2021-09-04", 0.03], ["2021-09-05", 0.02], ["2021-09-05", 0.025], ["2021-09-05", 0.03], ["2021-09-05", 0.03], ["2021-09-07", 0.025], ["2021-09-07", 0.02], ["2021-09-08", 0.02], ["2021-09-08", 0.02], ["2021-09-11", 0.02], ["2021-09-11", 0.02], ["2021-09-11", 0.02], ["2021-09-12", 0.02], ["2021-09-12", 0.02], ["2021-09-16", 0.02], ["2021-09-16", 0.02], ["2021-09-17", 0.02], ["2021-09-18", 0.02], ["2021-09-19", 0.02], ["2021-09-20", 0.01], ["2021-09-21", 0.01], ["2021-09-23", 0.01], ["2021-09-25", 0.01], ["2021-09-25", 0.01], ["2021-09-26", 0.01], ["2021-09-27", 0.01], ["2021-09-27", 0.01], ["2021-09-28", 0.01], ["2021-09-28", 0.01], ["2021-09-29", 0.01], ["2021-09-30", 0.01], 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["2021-11-28", 0.0], ["2021-12-02", 0.0], ["2021-12-03", 0.0], ["2021-12-04", 0.0], ["2021-12-05", 0.0], ["2021-12-05", 0.0], ["2021-12-08", 0.0], ["2021-12-09", 0.0], ["2021-12-13", 0.0], ["2021-12-13", 0.0], ["2021-12-13", 0.0], ["2021-12-14", 0.0], ["2021-12-14", 0.0], ["2021-12-16", 0.0], ["2021-12-17", 0.0], ["2021-12-19", 0.0], ["2021-12-20", 0.0], ["2021-12-22", 0.0], ["2021-12-23", 0.0], ["2021-12-23", 0.0], ["2021-12-25", 0.0], ["2021-12-25", 0.0], ["2021-12-25", 0.0], ["2021-12-26", 0.0], ["2021-12-26", 0.0], ["2021-12-27", 0.0], ["2021-12-27", 0.0], ["2021-12-29", 0.0], ["2021-12-30", 0.0], ["2021-12-31", 0.0], ["2022-01-01", 0.0], ["2022-01-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1982 | True |
2023-02-01 | Before 1 February 2023, will there be an attack on a federal facility in the US resulting in at least ten fatalities? | binary |
<p>After the FBI searched former President Trump's Mar-a-Lago home in August 2022, threats against federal law enforcement have increased (<a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/08/09/1116575413/mar-a-lago-fbi-raid-trump-search" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/fbi-dhs-warn-threats-federal-law-enforcement-spiked-wake-mar-lago-sear-rcna43024" target="_blank">NBC News</a>, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/alleged-fbi-office-breach-cincinnati-ohio-standoff-suspect-dies/" target="_blank">CBS News</a>). The fatalities must occur during the question's open period to count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-02-01 | gjopen | ["https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/11/us/who-died-in-capitol-building-attack.html", "https://mobile.twitter.com/KerryPicket/status/1570191433990021120", "https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/search/IncidentSummary.aspx?gtdid=200911060002", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2514-between-12-august-2022-and-18-february-2023-will-former-president-donald-trump-be-criminally-charged-with-or-indicted-for-a-federal-and-or-state-crime-in-the-us", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1495597", "https://images.prismic.io/thedecisionlab/cce9c879-5faa-46cb-a685-4542362fc572_availability-heuristic-the-decision-lab.png?auto=compress,format", "https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/search/IncidentSummary.aspx?gtdid=201912060007", "https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/search/IncidentSummary.aspx?gtdid=200109110006);", "https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2022/10/political-violence-trump-stochastic-terrorism-polarization/", "https://www.axios.com/2022/11/06/rnc-chair-ronna-mcdaniel-2022-midterm-election", "https://www.secretservice.gov/sites/default/files/2020-04/Attacks_on_Federal_Government_2001-2013.pdf", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1538916", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-63434960", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/08/29/trump-voters-civil-war/", "https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/search/IncidentSummary.aspx?gtdid=200911060002);", "https://thefederalist.com/2022/10/20/we-need-to-stop-calling-ourselves-conservatives/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1495623", "https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/", "https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/search/IncidentSummary.aspx?gtdid=201512020012", "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/08/capitol-attack-police-officer-five-deaths", "https://www.johnstonsarchive.net/terrorism/wrjp255a.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_shootings_in_the_United_States#Deadliest_mass_shootings_since_1949", "https://www.epa.gov/enforcement/enforcement-and-compliance-federal-facilities", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-63133259", "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/midterm-elections-gop-candidates-more-than-half-election-deniers-cbs-news-review/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2022-08-18 | 0.0 | [["2022-08-19", 0.0], ["2022-08-19", 0.005], ["2022-08-19", 0.0167], ["2022-08-19", 0.0575], ["2022-08-19", 0.058], ["2022-08-19", 0.0508], ["2022-08-20", 0.0621], ["2022-08-20", 0.055], ["2022-08-20", 0.0522], ["2022-08-20", 0.0505], ["2022-08-20", 0.0552], ["2022-08-20", 0.0573], ["2022-08-20", 0.0596], ["2022-08-20", 0.0592], ["2022-08-21", 0.0696], ["2022-08-21", 0.0689], ["2022-08-21", 0.0672], ["2022-08-21", 0.0645], ["2022-08-21", 0.0636], ["2022-08-22", 0.0657], ["2022-08-22", 0.0639], ["2022-08-22", 0.0618], ["2022-08-22", 0.0776], ["2022-08-22", 0.0725], 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["2022-09-16", 0.0823], ["2022-09-16", 0.081], ["2022-09-17", 0.081], ["2022-09-18", 0.081], ["2022-09-19", 0.08], ["2022-09-21", 0.0816], ["2022-09-22", 0.0816], ["2022-09-23", 0.0816], ["2022-09-24", 0.0813], ["2022-09-25", 0.0813], ["2022-09-25", 0.08], ["2022-09-25", 0.0797], ["2022-09-26", 0.0797], ["2022-09-27", 0.0731], ["2022-09-27", 0.0734], ["2022-09-27", 0.0522], ["2022-09-28", 0.0516], ["2022-09-29", 0.0513], ["2022-09-30", 0.0663], ["2022-09-30", 0.0663], ["2022-10-01", 0.0638], ["2022-10-01", 0.0634], ["2022-10-05", 0.0806], ["2022-10-06", 0.0809], ["2022-10-08", 0.0806], ["2022-10-08", 0.1079], ["2022-10-09", 0.1073], ["2022-10-09", 0.1067], ["2022-10-11", 0.1067], ["2022-10-12", 0.1067], ["2022-10-13", 0.1061], ["2022-10-14", 0.1045], ["2022-10-14", 0.1045], ["2022-10-17", 0.1052], ["2022-10-18", 0.1052], ["2022-10-18", 0.1082], ["2022-10-19", 0.1085], ["2022-10-20", 0.1053], ["2022-10-20", 0.1156], ["2022-10-20", 0.1185], ["2022-10-21", 0.1326], ["2022-10-21", 0.1326], ["2022-10-22", 0.1326], ["2022-10-24", 0.1091], ["2022-10-26", 0.1091], ["2022-10-27", 0.1094], ["2022-10-27", 0.1094], ["2022-10-28", 0.1094], ["2022-10-29", 0.1094], ["2022-10-29", 0.1091], ["2022-10-30", 0.1091], ["2022-10-31", 0.1091], ["2022-11-01", 0.1091], ["2022-11-02", 0.1091], ["2022-11-03", 0.1091], ["2022-11-03", 0.11], ["2022-11-04", 0.1115], ["2022-11-04", 0.11], ["2022-11-04", 0.11], ["2022-11-06", 0.1109], ["2022-11-06", 0.1109], ["2022-11-07", 0.1106], ["2022-11-07", 0.11], ["2022-11-08", 0.1129], ["2022-11-08", 0.1103], ["2022-11-10", 0.1024], ["2022-11-10", 0.1], ["2022-11-11", 0.0991], ["2022-11-11", 0.0988], ["2022-11-13", 0.0971], ["2022-11-13", 0.0976], ["2022-11-13", 0.0982], ["2022-11-15", 0.0982], ["2022-11-16", 0.0968], ["2022-11-16", 0.0968], ["2022-11-17", 0.0956], ["2022-11-18", 0.0965], ["2022-11-18", 0.0956], ["2022-11-19", 0.0953], ["2022-11-20", 0.095], ["2022-11-20", 0.0906], ["2022-11-21", 0.0906], ["2022-11-22", 0.09], ["2022-11-23", 0.0894], ["2022-11-23", 0.0894], ["2022-11-24", 0.0889], ["2022-11-24", 0.0883], ["2022-11-25", 0.0874], ["2022-11-25", 0.0871], ["2022-11-26", 0.0837], ["2022-11-26", 0.0834], ["2022-11-27", 0.0834], ["2022-11-28", 0.0729], ["2022-11-28", 0.0717], ["2022-11-30", 0.0717], ["2022-11-30", 0.0711], ["2022-12-01", 0.0697], ["2022-12-02", 0.0694], ["2022-12-03", 0.0666], ["2022-12-04", 0.0657], ["2022-12-04", 0.0651], ["2022-12-05", 0.0366], ["2022-12-06", 0.0369], ["2022-12-06", 0.0347], ["2022-12-06", 0.0372], ["2022-12-08", 0.035], ["2022-12-09", 0.0344], ["2022-12-09", 0.0344], ["2022-12-10", 0.0333], ["2022-12-11", 0.0347], ["2022-12-12", 0.0336], ["2022-12-12", 0.0336], ["2022-12-13", 0.0333], ["2022-12-15", 0.0328], ["2022-12-16", 0.0322], ["2022-12-16", 0.0336], ["2022-12-17", 0.0333], ["2022-12-19", 0.0331], ["2022-12-19", 0.0331], ["2022-12-20", 0.0325], ["2022-12-21", 0.0322], ["2022-12-22", 0.0322], ["2022-12-22", 0.0314], ["2022-12-23", 0.0311], ["2022-12-24", 0.0311], ["2022-12-26", 0.0308], ["2022-12-27", 0.0306], ["2022-12-28", 0.0303], ["2022-12-29", 0.0292], ["2022-12-29", 0.0303], ["2022-12-30", 0.0292], ["2022-12-30", 0.0305], ["2023-01-01", 0.0303], ["2023-01-01", 0.0311], ["2023-01-02", 0.0297], ["2023-01-02", 0.0297], ["2023-01-03", 0.0292], ["2023-01-03", 0.0289], ["2023-01-04", 0.0284], ["2023-01-04", 0.0279], ["2023-01-04", 0.0276], ["2023-01-05", 0.0274], ["2023-01-06", 0.0267], ["2023-01-06", 0.0246], ["2023-01-07", 0.0244], ["2023-01-08", 0.0244], ["2023-01-09", 0.0238], ["2023-01-09", 0.0248], ["2023-01-09", 0.0275], ["2023-01-09", 0.0339], ["2023-01-09", 0.034], ["2023-01-09", 0.0467], ["2023-01-09", 0.047], ["2023-01-09", 0.0491], ["2023-01-09", 0.0489], ["2023-01-09", 0.0484], ["2023-01-10", 0.0464], ["2023-01-10", 0.0467], ["2023-01-10", 0.0467], ["2023-01-11", 0.0462], ["2023-01-11", 0.0462], ["2023-01-12", 0.046], ["2023-01-13", 0.0449], ["2023-01-13", 0.0444], ["2023-01-14", 0.0441], ["2023-01-16", 0.0439], ["2023-01-16", 0.0437], ["2023-01-17", 0.0422], ["2023-01-17", 0.0415], ["2023-01-18", 0.0415], ["2023-01-18", 0.0417], ["2023-01-18", 0.0411], ["2023-01-19", 0.0415], ["2023-01-19", 0.0413], ["2023-01-20", 0.0411], ["2023-01-20", 0.0411], ["2023-01-21", 0.0409], ["2023-01-21", 0.0402], ["2023-01-22", 0.04], ["2023-01-23", 0.0396], ["2023-01-25", 0.0398], ["2023-01-25", 0.0394], ["2023-01-25", 0.0398], ["2023-01-25", 0.0392], ["2023-01-25", 0.0402], ["2023-01-25", 0.0394], ["2023-01-26", 0.039], ["2023-01-26", 0.039], ["2023-01-27", 0.0384], ["2023-01-27", 0.0376], ["2023-01-28", 0.0361], ["2023-01-29", 0.0337], ["2023-01-30", 0.0335], ["2023-01-30", 0.0331], ["2023-01-31", 0.0316], ["2023-01-31", 0.0266], ["2023-02-01", 0.0266]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2519 | True |
2023-01-01 | Will federal legislation providing for the establishment of a US interagency committee on global catastrophic risk become law before 1 January 2023? | binary |
<p>On 23 June 2022, US Sens. Rob Portman and Gary Peters introduced a bill entitled the "Global Catastrophic Risk Management Act of 2022," which would require the president to establish an interagency committee on catastrophic risk (<a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/4488" target="_blank">Congress.gov</a>, <a href="https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/media/minority-media/portman-peters-introduce-bipartisan-bill-to-ensure-federal-government-is-prepared-for-catastrophic-risks-to-national-security-" target="_blank">Senate Committee on Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-03-17 | gjopen | ["https://www.theguardian.com/science/2022/nov/01/huge-planet-killer-asteroid-discovered-and-its-heading-our-way", "https://republicans-oversight.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Pry-Statement-5-13-EMP.pdf", "https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/4488/all-actions", "https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/search/?q=catastrophic&search-button=Search", "https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/8574/cosponsors?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%22hr+8574%22%7D", "https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/4488/all-actions?overview=closed#tabs", "https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/", "https://www.congress.gov/event/117th-congress/senate-event/332967", "https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/media/majority-media/peters-introduces-bipartisan-bill-to-ensure-federal-government-is-prepared-for-catastrophic-risks-", "https://energsustainsoc.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13705-019-0199-y", "https://www.gjopen.com/faq", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rob_Portman#Tenure", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1514433", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Texas_power_crisis"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2022-07-28 | 0.0 | [["2022-07-29", 1.0], ["2022-07-29", 1.0], ["2022-07-30", 0.78], ["2022-07-31", 0.76], ["2022-07-31", 0.778], ["2022-08-01", 0.802], ["2022-08-01", 0.82], ["2022-08-01", 0.85], ["2022-08-01", 0.7714285714285715], ["2022-08-02", 0.75625], ["2022-08-02", 0.7611111111111111], ["2022-08-03", 0.687], ["2022-08-03", 0.687], ["2022-08-04", 0.687], ["2022-08-04", 0.682], ["2022-08-04", 0.627], ["2022-08-04", 0.542], ["2022-08-06", 0.532], ["2022-08-07", 0.526], ["2022-08-08", 0.428], ["2022-08-08", 0.408], ["2022-08-09", 0.406], ["2022-08-09", 0.326], ["2022-08-09", 0.342], ["2022-08-10", 0.242], ["2022-08-10", 0.235], ["2022-08-10", 0.239], ["2022-08-10", 0.175], ["2022-08-12", 0.174], ["2022-08-12", 0.176], ["2022-08-14", 0.181], ["2022-08-16", 0.184], ["2022-08-17", 0.224], ["2022-08-17", 0.276], ["2022-08-18", 0.281], ["2022-08-19", 0.246], ["2022-08-20", 0.242], ["2022-08-20", 0.277], ["2022-08-25", 0.272], ["2022-08-25", 0.294], ["2022-08-26", 0.295], ["2022-08-27", 0.259], ["2022-08-29", 0.249], ["2022-08-30", 0.248], ["2022-08-31", 0.247], ["2022-09-01", 0.326], ["2022-09-04", 0.325], ["2022-09-06", 0.324], ["2022-09-09", 0.324], ["2022-09-10", 0.344], ["2022-09-12", 0.335], ["2022-09-13", 0.334], ["2022-09-14", 0.333], ["2022-09-15", 0.333], ["2022-09-15", 0.412], ["2022-09-15", 0.411], ["2022-09-20", 0.428], ["2022-09-20", 0.441], ["2022-09-20", 0.451], ["2022-09-23", 0.454], ["2022-09-23", 0.439], ["2022-09-23", 0.493], ["2022-09-23", 0.49], ["2022-09-25", 0.5], ["2022-09-28", 0.51], ["2022-09-28", 0.513], ["2022-09-28", 0.444], ["2022-09-28", 0.443], ["2022-09-30", 0.4027], ["2022-10-02", 0.32], ["2022-10-03", 0.3018], ["2022-10-03", 0.3], ["2022-10-05", 0.2318], ["2022-10-07", 0.2191], ["2022-10-10", 0.2025], ["2022-10-12", 0.1817], ["2022-10-12", 0.175], ["2022-10-12", 0.175], ["2022-10-13", 0.175], ["2022-10-14", 0.1717], ["2022-10-18", 0.1592], ["2022-10-18", 0.1592], ["2022-10-20", 0.1575], ["2022-10-21", 0.2408], ["2022-10-23", 0.1575], ["2022-10-24", 0.1575], ["2022-10-28", 0.1358], ["2022-10-28", 0.1308], ["2022-11-02", 0.1992], ["2022-11-03", 0.185], ["2022-11-04", 0.18], ["2022-11-05", 0.1775], ["2022-11-07", 0.1775], ["2022-11-10", 0.1783], ["2022-11-10", 0.1658], ["2022-11-11", 0.165], ["2022-11-13", 0.1667], ["2022-11-15", 0.1577], ["2022-11-15", 0.1569], ["2022-11-16", 0.1438], ["2022-11-17", 0.1438], ["2022-11-17", 0.1431], ["2022-11-19", 0.1423], ["2022-11-21", 0.1415], ["2022-11-21", 0.14], ["2022-11-22", 0.1346], ["2022-11-22", 0.1346], ["2022-11-23", 0.1254], ["2022-11-23", 0.1246], ["2022-11-23", 0.1238], ["2022-11-24", 0.1231], ["2022-11-26", 0.1054], ["2022-11-26", 0.1046], ["2022-11-26", 0.1031], ["2022-11-28", 0.1023], ["2022-11-28", 0.1023], ["2022-11-28", 0.0885], ["2022-11-29", 0.0877], ["2022-11-29", 0.0777], ["2022-11-29", 0.0654], ["2022-11-30", 0.0662], ["2022-11-30", 0.0654], ["2022-11-30", 0.0638], ["2022-12-02", 0.0623], ["2022-12-02", 0.0615], ["2022-12-02", 0.0615], ["2022-12-03", 0.0569], ["2022-12-06", 0.0538], ["2022-12-06", 0.05], ["2022-12-06", 0.04], ["2022-12-07", 0.0393], ["2022-12-07", 0.0393], ["2022-12-08", 0.0371], ["2022-12-09", 0.0336], ["2022-12-09", 0.0336], ["2022-12-10", 0.0329], ["2022-12-12", 0.0329], ["2022-12-13", 0.0236], ["2022-12-13", 0.0229], ["2022-12-14", 0.0229], ["2022-12-14", 0.0229], ["2022-12-17", 0.02], ["2022-12-17", 0.0193], ["2022-12-17", 0.0193], ["2022-12-18", 0.0193], ["2022-12-19", 0.0171], ["2022-12-19", 0.0157], ["2022-12-19", 0.015], ["2022-12-19", 0.014], ["2022-12-20", 0.0127], ["2022-12-22", 0.0127], ["2022-12-22", 0.0127], ["2022-12-22", 0.012], ["2022-12-23", 0.012], ["2022-12-24", 0.0113], ["2022-12-25", 0.01], ["2022-12-25", 0.01], ["2022-12-26", 0.0094], ["2022-12-26", 0.0094], ["2022-12-26", 0.0094], ["2022-12-26", 0.0063], ["2022-12-26", 0.0063], ["2022-12-27", 0.0031], ["2022-12-27", 0.0006], ["2022-12-28", 0.0006], ["2022-12-29", 0.0006], ["2022-12-29", 0.0006], ["2022-12-29", 0.0006], ["2022-12-29", 0.0006], ["2023-01-01", 0.0006], ["2023-01-01", 0.0006]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2498 | True |
2022-06-30 | Before 9 July 2022, will the Israeli Knesset vote to dissolve itself? | binary |
<p>Continued political turmoil in Israel has raised the prospect of an early dissolution of the Knesset, the Israeli parliament (<a href="https://www.axios.com/israeli-government-coalition-collapse-21df1f2e-3f52-4369-b426-31d9a995d2bc.html" target="_blank">Axios</a>, <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/mk-smotrich-requests-urgent-plenum-session-to-vote-on-dissolving-knesset/" target="_blank">Times of Israel</a>, <a href="https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Israel_2013.pdf?lang=en" target="_blank">Israeli Constitution</a>, see Section 34).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-06-30 | gjopen | ["https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/.premium-the-knesset-is-set-to-dissolve-israelis-will-return-to-the-polls-on-march-23-1.9393361", "https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-709415", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/moving-kahana-back-to-the-knesset-is-bennetts-attempt-to-circle-the-wagons/", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/mk-smotrich-requests-urgent-plenum-session-to-vote-on-dissolving-knesset/", "https://m.knesset.gov.il/en/mk/pages/elections.aspx", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/as-the-coalition-teeters-utj-appears-to-make-its-move-but-its-not-what-most-think/", "https://knesset.gov.il/history/eng/eng_hist_all.htm", "https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Israel_2013.pdf?lang=en", "https://www.axios.com/2022/04/06/israeli-government-coalition-collapse", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y64Co-F6g1Y", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/bennett-vows-we-wont-give-up-after-losing-knesset-majority/", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/after-ousting-him-from-knesset-bennett-thanks-mk-kalfon-for-his-service/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2022-04-29 | 1.0 | [["2022-04-29", 0.86], ["2022-04-29", 0.635], ["2022-04-29", 0.685], ["2022-04-29", 0.69], ["2022-04-29", 0.52], ["2022-04-29", 0.27], ["2022-04-30", 0.5], ["2022-04-30", 0.52], ["2022-04-30", 0.53], ["2022-04-30", 0.275], ["2022-04-30", 0.16], ["2022-04-30", 0.305], ["2022-04-30", 0.16], ["2022-04-30", 0.13], ["2022-04-30", 0.1], ["2022-05-01", 0.06], ["2022-05-01", 0.05], ["2022-05-01", 0.075], ["2022-05-01", 0.075], ["2022-05-01", 0.075], ["2022-05-01", 0.075], ["2022-05-01", 0.075], ["2022-05-02", 0.1], ["2022-05-02", 0.1], ["2022-05-02", 0.1], ["2022-05-02", 0.1], ["2022-05-02", 0.1], ["2022-05-02", 0.1], ["2022-05-02", 0.125], ["2022-05-03", 0.15], ["2022-05-03", 0.15], ["2022-05-03", 0.15], ["2022-05-04", 0.415], ["2022-05-04", 0.415], ["2022-05-04", 0.41], ["2022-05-04", 0.39], ["2022-05-04", 0.41], ["2022-05-04", 0.405], ["2022-05-04", 0.42], ["2022-05-04", 0.42], ["2022-05-05", 0.42], ["2022-05-05", 0.42], ["2022-05-05", 0.42], ["2022-05-05", 0.405], ["2022-05-05", 0.39], ["2022-05-05", 0.39], ["2022-05-05", 0.39], ["2022-05-05", 0.39], ["2022-05-06", 0.345], ["2022-05-06", 0.345], ["2022-05-07", 0.255], ["2022-05-07", 0.18], ["2022-05-07", 0.21], ["2022-05-07", 0.2], ["2022-05-07", 0.2], ["2022-05-07", 0.25], ["2022-05-09", 0.25], ["2022-05-09", 0.25], ["2022-05-09", 0.3], ["2022-05-09", 0.3], ["2022-05-10", 0.3], ["2022-05-10", 0.33], ["2022-05-10", 0.32], ["2022-05-11", 0.32], ["2022-05-11", 0.32], ["2022-05-11", 0.315], ["2022-05-11", 0.315], ["2022-05-11", 0.275], ["2022-05-12", 0.275], ["2022-05-12", 0.25], ["2022-05-12", 0.25], ["2022-05-12", 0.2], ["2022-05-13", 0.2], ["2022-05-13", 0.2], ["2022-05-13", 0.2], ["2022-05-14", 0.2], ["2022-05-14", 0.2], ["2022-05-14", 0.2], ["2022-05-14", 0.2], ["2022-05-16", 0.2], ["2022-05-16", 0.2], ["2022-05-18", 0.2], ["2022-05-18", 0.2], ["2022-05-18", 0.2], ["2022-05-20", 0.2], ["2022-05-20", 0.2], ["2022-05-21", 0.2], ["2022-05-22", 0.2], ["2022-05-22", 0.2], ["2022-05-22", 0.175], ["2022-05-23", 0.175], ["2022-05-23", 0.175], ["2022-05-23", 0.175], ["2022-05-23", 0.175], ["2022-05-24", 0.15], ["2022-05-24", 0.15], ["2022-05-25", 0.15], ["2022-05-25", 0.15], ["2022-05-25", 0.15], ["2022-05-26", 0.15], ["2022-05-26", 0.15], ["2022-05-27", 0.15], ["2022-05-27", 0.15], ["2022-05-27", 0.15], ["2022-05-27", 0.15], ["2022-05-27", 0.15], ["2022-05-27", 0.15], ["2022-05-28", 0.15], ["2022-05-28", 0.15], ["2022-05-29", 0.15], ["2022-05-30", 0.15], ["2022-05-30", 0.16], ["2022-05-31", 0.16], ["2022-05-31", 0.15], ["2022-06-01", 0.15], ["2022-06-01", 0.15], ["2022-06-03", 0.15], ["2022-06-04", 0.15], ["2022-06-04", 0.15], ["2022-06-06", 0.15], ["2022-06-06", 0.15], ["2022-06-06", 0.15], ["2022-06-06", 0.15], ["2022-06-08", 0.125], ["2022-06-08", 0.125], ["2022-06-08", 0.125], ["2022-06-09", 0.125], ["2022-06-09", 0.125], ["2022-06-09", 0.11], ["2022-06-10", 0.11], ["2022-06-11", 0.11], ["2022-06-12", 0.11], ["2022-06-13", 0.11], ["2022-06-13", 0.11], ["2022-06-15", 0.11], ["2022-06-15", 0.11], ["2022-06-16", 0.11], ["2022-06-16", 0.11], ["2022-06-17", 0.11], ["2022-06-17", 0.11], ["2022-06-17", 0.1], ["2022-06-17", 0.1], ["2022-06-17", 0.1], ["2022-06-18", 0.1], ["2022-06-19", 0.085], ["2022-06-19", 0.07], ["2022-06-19", 0.05], ["2022-06-19", 0.05], ["2022-06-20", 0.05], ["2022-06-20", 0.05], ["2022-06-20", 0.1], ["2022-06-20", 0.1], ["2022-06-20", 0.12], ["2022-06-20", 0.12], ["2022-06-20", 0.15], ["2022-06-20", 0.15], ["2022-06-20", 0.2], ["2022-06-20", 0.2], ["2022-06-20", 0.2], ["2022-06-20", 0.2], ["2022-06-20", 0.2], ["2022-06-20", 0.2], ["2022-06-21", 0.5], ["2022-06-21", 0.7], ["2022-06-21", 0.79], ["2022-06-21", 0.95], ["2022-06-21", 0.99], ["2022-06-21", 0.99], ["2022-06-21", 1.0], ["2022-06-21", 1.0], ["2022-06-21", 1.0], ["2022-06-22", 1.0], ["2022-06-22", 1.0], ["2022-06-22", 1.0], ["2022-06-23", 1.0], ["2022-06-23", 1.0], ["2022-06-24", 1.0], ["2022-06-24", 1.0], ["2022-06-26", 1.0], ["2022-06-26", 1.0], ["2022-06-26", 1.0], ["2022-06-28", 1.0], ["2022-06-28", 1.0], ["2022-06-28", 1.0], ["2022-06-30", 1.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2374 | True |
2021-09-01 | Will the US announce a reduction or elimination of total punitive tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber before 1 September 2021? | binary |
<p>The high cost of lumber is impacting housing prices in the US, and the approximately 9% punitive tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber only adds pressure to the market (<a href="http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/05072021_lumber_prices.asp" target="_blank">Mortgage News Daily</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/05/business/lumber-prices-home-building-costs/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>). A "punitive tariff" is either an antidumping or countervailing tariff, also referred to as a duty (<a href="https://www.referenceforbusiness.com/encyclopedia/Thir-Val/Trade-Barriers.html" target="_blank">Reference for Business</a>). The Trump administration cut the punitive tariffs down from approximately 20% in late 2020 (<a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-us-lumber-coalition-us-department-of-commerce-confirms-continued-canadian-softwood-lumber-subsidies-and-dumping-in-first-annual-administrative-review-301179961.html" target="_blank">PR Newswire</a>, <a href="https://nahbnow.com/2020/12/commerce-department-cuts-lumber-tariffs-from-20-to-9/" target="_blank">NAHB Now</a>). The date a reduction or elimination of the total punitive tariffs would take effect is immaterial. A temporary reduction or elimination would count.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 26 May 2021</span>: New product exceptions to the punitive tariffs alone would not count.</p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 24 June 2021</span>: A punitive tariff reduction announced after an increase made during the question's open period would count.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-09-01 | gjopen | ["https://www.statista.com/statistics/240991/average-sales-prices-of-new-homes-sold-in-the-us/", "https://www.politico.com/newsletters/weekly-trade/2021/05/24/china-bill-amendment-targets-seafood-slavery-795483", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-19/u-s-court-drops-trade-duty-reviews-as-lumber-dispute-roars-on", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada%E2%80%93United_States_softwood_lumber_dispute#Looking_ahead", "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/15/us-and-eu-truce-boeing-airbus-dispute.html", "https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/commerce-department-doubles-softwood-tariffs-1.6036806", "https://financialpost.com/commodities/agriculture/worlds-top-lumber-firm-to-expand-u-s-mill-capacity-amid-boom", "https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/lumber-firms-applaud-home-builders-angry-us-moves-double-canadian-lumber-tariffs", "https://www.businessinsider.com/real-estate-homebuying-soaring-lumber-prices-new-homes-construction-2021-3?international=true&r=US&IR=T", "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/30/soaring-lumber-prices-add-36000-to-the-cost-of-a-new-home.html", "https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-us-seeks-to-double-tariff-rates-against-most-canadian-softwood-lumber/", "https://worldcrunch.com/business-finance/biden-on-trade-trump-like-protectionism-with-a-smile", "https://www.heritage.org/trade/commentary/steeper-tariff-canadian-softwood-lumber-not-the-solution", "https://www.globest.com/2021/05/26/us-plan-to-double-canadian-lumber-tariffs-comes-under-fire/?slreturn=20210502153453", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada%E2%80%93United_States_softwood_lumber_dispute", "https://www.reuters.com/business/us-tariff-review-considers-commodity-shortages-inflation-official-2021-05-14/", "https://seekingalpha.com/news/3699280-us-moves-to-double-tariffs-on-canadian-softwood-lumber", "https://madisonsreport.com/lumber-prices/", "https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/homes-price-rise-is-not-explained-by-duties-11618854766", "https://www.baystreet.ca/globalmarkets/2882/US-To-Raise-Import-Tariffs-On-Canadian-Softwood-Lumber", "https://bc.ctvnews.ca/u-s-commerce-department-doubles-tariffs-on-canadian-softwood-lumber-imports-1.5438850", "https://www.reuters.com/business/us-trade-chief-pressured-lift-duties-canadian-lumber-2021-05-16/", "https://www.reuters.com/business/us-housing-starts-drop-sharply-april-2021-05-18/", "https://uslumbercoalition.org/press-release/u-s-lumber-coalition-u-s-department-of-commerces-continued-trade-enforcement-leads-to-robust-domestic-lumber-industry-capacity-expansion/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2021-05-14 | 0.0 | [["2021-05-14", 1.0], ["2021-05-14", 0.575], ["2021-05-14", 1.0], ["2021-05-14", 1.0], ["2021-05-14", 1.0], ["2021-05-14", 0.8], ["2021-05-14", 0.95], ["2021-05-15", 0.975], ["2021-05-15", 0.95], ["2021-05-15", 0.775], ["2021-05-16", 0.6], ["2021-05-16", 0.775], ["2021-05-16", 0.69], ["2021-05-16", 0.64], ["2021-05-16", 0.62], ["2021-05-16", 0.6], ["2021-05-16", 0.6], ["2021-05-16", 0.6], ["2021-05-16", 0.6], ["2021-05-16", 0.6], ["2021-05-16", 0.6], ["2021-05-16", 0.6], ["2021-05-16", 0.6], ["2021-05-16", 0.6], ["2021-05-16", 0.6], ["2021-05-16", 0.62], ["2021-05-17", 0.6], ["2021-05-17", 0.62], ["2021-05-17", 0.6], ["2021-05-17", 0.62], ["2021-05-17", 0.6], ["2021-05-17", 0.62], ["2021-05-18", 0.62], ["2021-05-18", 0.6], ["2021-05-18", 0.62], ["2021-05-18", 0.64], ["2021-05-19", 0.68], ["2021-05-19", 0.69], ["2021-05-20", 0.69], ["2021-05-20", 0.7], ["2021-05-20", 0.7], ["2021-05-21", 0.7], ["2021-05-21", 0.7], ["2021-05-21", 0.7], ["2021-05-21", 0.7], ["2021-05-21", 0.675], ["2021-05-22", 0.675], ["2021-05-24", 0.675], ["2021-05-25", 0.675], ["2021-05-25", 0.675], ["2021-05-25", 0.675], ["2021-05-25", 0.65], ["2021-05-26", 0.65], ["2021-05-26", 0.65], ["2021-05-26", 0.5], ["2021-05-26", 0.25], ["2021-05-26", 0.1], ["2021-05-26", 0.08], ["2021-05-26", 0.06], ["2021-05-26", 0.06], ["2021-05-26", 0.05], ["2021-05-27", 0.05], ["2021-05-27", 0.045], ["2021-05-27", 0.045], ["2021-05-27", 0.025], ["2021-05-28", 0.005], ["2021-05-28", 0.0], ["2021-05-28", 0.0], ["2021-05-28", 0.0], ["2021-05-29", 0.0], ["2021-05-29", 0.0], ["2021-05-29", 0.0], ["2021-05-30", 0.0], ["2021-05-30", 0.0], ["2021-05-30", 0.0], ["2021-05-31", 0.0], ["2021-05-31", 0.0], ["2021-05-31", 0.0], ["2021-06-01", 0.0], ["2021-06-02", 0.005], ["2021-06-02", 0.01], ["2021-06-03", 0.025], ["2021-06-03", 0.025], ["2021-06-03", 0.04], ["2021-06-04", 0.03], ["2021-06-05", 0.03], ["2021-06-07", 0.03], ["2021-06-08", 0.04], ["2021-06-08", 0.04], ["2021-06-09", 0.04], ["2021-06-12", 0.035], ["2021-06-13", 0.04], ["2021-06-13", 0.02], ["2021-06-14", 0.04], ["2021-06-15", 0.035], ["2021-06-15", 0.035], ["2021-06-17", 0.035], ["2021-06-20", 0.035], ["2021-06-21", 0.035], ["2021-06-21", 0.035], ["2021-06-23", 0.035], ["2021-06-24", 0.045], ["2021-06-26", 0.04], ["2021-06-29", 0.04], ["2021-06-29", 0.035], ["2021-07-01", 0.04], ["2021-07-01", 0.04], ["2021-07-02", 0.04], ["2021-07-07", 0.04], ["2021-07-07", 0.045], ["2021-07-09", 0.045], ["2021-07-10", 0.045], ["2021-07-12", 0.04], ["2021-07-13", 0.04], ["2021-07-13", 0.045], ["2021-07-13", 0.045], ["2021-07-15", 0.04], ["2021-07-16", 0.04], ["2021-07-18", 0.04], ["2021-07-21", 0.04], ["2021-07-22", 0.04], ["2021-07-25", 0.04], ["2021-07-26", 0.035], ["2021-07-28", 0.035], ["2021-07-29", 0.035], ["2021-07-30", 0.035], ["2021-07-31", 0.035], ["2021-07-31", 0.04], ["2021-08-02", 0.03], ["2021-08-03", 0.03], ["2021-08-03", 0.03], ["2021-08-04", 0.03], ["2021-08-05", 0.03], ["2021-08-06", 0.03], ["2021-08-07", 0.03], ["2021-08-08", 0.03], ["2021-08-09", 0.025], ["2021-08-10", 0.025], ["2021-08-11", 0.02], ["2021-08-12", 0.02], ["2021-08-12", 0.02], ["2021-08-12", 0.02], ["2021-08-13", 0.01], ["2021-08-13", 0.01], ["2021-08-13", 0.01], ["2021-08-13", 0.01], ["2021-08-14", 0.01], ["2021-08-16", 0.01], ["2021-08-17", 0.0], ["2021-08-17", 0.0], ["2021-08-20", 0.0], ["2021-08-22", 0.0], ["2021-08-23", 0.0], ["2021-08-23", 0.0], ["2021-08-25", 0.0], ["2021-08-25", 0.0], ["2021-08-25", 0.0], ["2021-08-30", 0.0], ["2021-09-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2009 | True |
2023-06-07 | Will the Bank of Canada's policy interest rate target exceed 4.75% before 8 June 2023? | binary |
<p>The Bank of Canada, the country's central bank, sets a target interest rate for overnight lending to banks that influences interest rates, including the prime rate, throughout the Canadian economy (<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/canadian-overnight-money-market-rate.asp" target="_blank">Investopedia</a>, <a href="https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/banking-and-financial-statistics/posted-interest-rates-offered-by-chartered-banks" target="_blank">Bank of Canada</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Bank of Canada (<a href="https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/" target="_blank">Bank of Canada - Policy Interest Rate</a>). At its 7 December 2022 meeting, the Bank of Canada raised its policy interest rate target to 4.25% (<a href="https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2022/12/fad-press-release-2022-12-07/" target="_blank">Bank of Canada - 7 December 2022 Release</a>, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bank-of-canada-1.6677004" target="_blank">CBC</a>). The question will close on the date of the announcement, rather than the date on which an increase would take effect.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-06-08 | gjopen | ["http://view.website.rbc.com/?qs=29bda0cf352f71a8de8a7e0cb686930990b775bc0fd737e60b068ba63f6761cc590f6c740c0b80a47e440d3ccb67b24ed7bc357acc6ab0cc31d1404f4719e97ae1a8068fe2b1c159edfadd007ef2f6b5", "https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canadas-annual-inflation-rate-rises-44-april-2023-05-16/", "https://think.ing.com/articles/bank-canada-preview-at-the-top-with-only-downside-to-come/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canadas-economy-unexpectedly-stalled-q4-january-rebound-likely-2023-02-28/", "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-canada-didn-t-debate-175309797.html", "https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/bank-of-canada-raises-key-interest-rate-again-signals-pause-in-rate-hikes-1.6245116", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-17/inflation-slows-to-6-3-in-canada-opening-door-to-rate-pause", "https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/bank-of-canada-s-inflation-fight-far-from-over-experts-1.1920867", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/bank-canada-keeps-rates-hold-says-inflation-slowing-expected-2023-03-08/", "https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/consumer-price-index-cpi", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/bank-canada-hold-rates-steady-450-through-this-year-2023-03-03/", "http://view.website.rbc.com/?qs=cc7ce436bab46f8b53c3fd4ff80d41313e8ee34a011f47012d856fbc6270a329bc2eda8fed91aeff8898768278ea85d748b52ac2dc8ca54eafd6f8a9ab5dc357f3949ca89cf67bbfb2939327f683b508", "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/04/fad-press-release-2023-04-12/", "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/", "https://russellinvestments.com/us/blog/bank-of-canada-pause-rate-hikes-mwir", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-19/interest-rates-more-economists-say-bank-of-canada-is-poised-to-hike-soon#xj4y7vzkg", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/bank-canada-hikes-rates-becomes-first-major-central-bank-signal-pause-2023-01-25/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-19/interest-rates-more-economists-say-bank-of-canada-is-poised-to-hike-soon", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/canada-annual-inflation-rate-slows-59-january-2023-02-21/", "https://think.ing.com/articles/canada-inflation-reinforces-the-view-that-rates-have-peaked/", "http://view.website.rbc.com/?qs=c01f9167b1342e365b2f244e08cc79a4f549184f6fdd03dc0f65c15f04dce097f24b1bc7fa8b0478ce0b6dbb67548f85ccf0dcb25b0534e25b758435c2009eddfd59027852be519b0f97924362d2d411", "https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/bank-canadas-macklem-says-inflation-coming-down-despite-april-gain-2023-05-18/", "http://view.website.rbc.com/?qs=41438058e12db0fe702050b5b01c52de1fa307ab5adad6d6a9ea7f7030e5a6e8310d6bde60b507058f7f804b5db3056ecb2e07f4e80e8bfd04cf2268893c87baa4da1071d401f3e5fa6cf242b864e147", "https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/business/bank-of-canada-raises-key-interest-rate-again-signals-pause-in-rate-hikes-1.6245116", "http://view.website.rbc.com/?qs=881b628fc6b7651369906e6d069f3a1459446355513167fe37819713a50cbf9795ffcc3767cd6e18c1478919f69f698095e36d8f5910b35337f0adbe5ddf1abda572be0deb251eab74e5e1b442ce83ec"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2022-12-08 | 0.0 | [["2022-12-09", 0.33], ["2022-12-09", 0.3], ["2022-12-09", 0.3667], ["2022-12-09", 0.4], ["2022-12-10", 0.52], ["2022-12-10", 0.4333], ["2022-12-10", 0.4257], ["2022-12-10", 0.3975], ["2022-12-10", 0.3956], ["2022-12-10", 0.375], ["2022-12-10", 0.3682], ["2022-12-10", 0.3583], ["2022-12-11", 0.3615], ["2022-12-11", 0.4071], ["2022-12-12", 0.4333], ["2022-12-12", 0.44], ["2022-12-12", 0.4662], ["2022-12-12", 0.4354], ["2022-12-13", 0.4508], ["2022-12-13", 0.4508], ["2022-12-13", 0.4836], ["2022-12-13", 0.4525], ["2022-12-13", 0.4418], ["2022-12-13", 0.4791], ["2022-12-14", 0.4725], ["2022-12-14", 0.48], ["2022-12-14", 0.4662], ["2022-12-15", 0.4162], ["2022-12-17", 0.37], ["2022-12-17", 0.402], ["2022-12-18", 0.408], ["2022-12-19", 0.44], ["2022-12-22", 0.429], ["2022-12-22", 0.465], ["2022-12-23", 0.399], ["2022-12-26", 0.404], ["2022-12-27", 0.4273], ["2022-12-27", 0.4409], ["2022-12-28", 0.3936], ["2022-12-31", 0.4145], ["2023-01-01", 0.3967], ["2023-01-01", 0.3625], ["2023-01-01", 0.3433], ["2023-01-02", 0.29], ["2023-01-02", 0.2883], ["2023-01-03", 0.2858], ["2023-01-05", 0.2533], ["2023-01-06", 0.2442], ["2023-01-06", 0.24], ["2023-01-06", 0.2667], ["2023-01-06", 0.2917], ["2023-01-06", 0.2942], ["2023-01-07", 0.2969], ["2023-01-09", 0.3062], ["2023-01-09", 0.3138], ["2023-01-10", 0.3169], ["2023-01-12", 0.3315], ["2023-01-13", 0.3315], ["2023-01-15", 0.3285], ["2023-01-16", 0.3154], ["2023-01-16", 0.3131], ["2023-01-17", 0.3131], ["2023-01-18", 0.3092], ["2023-01-18", 0.3069], ["2023-01-19", 0.3031], ["2023-01-21", 0.3031], ["2023-01-21", 0.2946], ["2023-01-25", 0.2846], ["2023-01-25", 0.3431], ["2023-01-25", 0.32], ["2023-01-25", 0.3108], ["2023-01-27", 0.31], ["2023-01-27", 0.3608], ["2023-01-28", 0.3386], ["2023-02-02", 0.3364], ["2023-02-03", 0.3364], ["2023-02-03", 0.315], ["2023-02-04", 0.3029], ["2023-02-04", 0.2914], ["2023-02-05", 0.2871], ["2023-02-06", 0.2807], ["2023-02-08", 0.2314], ["2023-02-08", 0.2314], ["2023-02-08", 0.2814], ["2023-02-10", 0.2893], ["2023-02-12", 0.2893], ["2023-02-21", 0.2907], ["2023-02-21", 0.2857], ["2023-02-21", 0.2821], ["2023-02-23", 0.2821], ["2023-02-25", 0.2836], ["2023-02-27", 0.2836], ["2023-02-28", 0.2836], ["2023-03-01", 0.285], ["2023-03-03", 0.2786], ["2023-03-03", 0.2164], ["2023-03-04", 0.1936], ["2023-03-05", 0.1921], ["2023-03-07", 0.1907], ["2023-03-07", 0.1886], ["2023-03-07", 0.1829], ["2023-03-10", 0.1814], ["2023-03-10", 0.1171], ["2023-03-11", 0.125], ["2023-03-11", 0.1243], ["2023-03-12", 0.1243], ["2023-03-13", 0.1207], ["2023-03-14", 0.1121], ["2023-03-14", 0.1107], ["2023-03-16", 0.055], ["2023-03-16", 0.0529], ["2023-03-16", 0.0493], ["2023-03-18", 0.0486], ["2023-03-18", 0.0636], ["2023-03-18", 0.0464], ["2023-03-19", 0.0457], ["2023-03-19", 0.0421], ["2023-03-20", 0.0421], ["2023-03-20", 0.0429], ["2023-03-21", 0.0421], ["2023-03-26", 0.0414], ["2023-03-27", 0.0393], ["2023-03-28", 0.0364], ["2023-03-28", 0.0693], ["2023-03-29", 0.0693], ["2023-03-29", 0.075], ["2023-04-02", 0.0707], ["2023-04-03", 0.07], ["2023-04-03", 0.0693], ["2023-04-08", 0.0693], ["2023-04-08", 0.0679], ["2023-04-12", 0.0679], ["2023-04-12", 0.0679], ["2023-04-13", 0.0643], ["2023-04-16", 0.0636], ["2023-04-18", 0.0636], ["2023-04-18", 0.0614], ["2023-04-19", 0.0643], ["2023-04-22", 0.0621], ["2023-04-24", 0.0621], ["2023-04-26", 0.0614], ["2023-04-27", 0.0614], ["2023-04-28", 0.0593], ["2023-04-28", 0.0586], ["2023-04-28", 0.0579], ["2023-04-29", 0.0557], ["2023-05-01", 0.0557], ["2023-05-03", 0.0179], ["2023-05-09", 0.0143], ["2023-05-09", 0.0121], ["2023-05-10", 0.0147], ["2023-05-10", 0.0147], ["2023-05-11", 0.0147], ["2023-05-11", 0.0147], ["2023-05-12", 0.078], ["2023-05-14", 0.078], ["2023-05-16", 0.078], ["2023-05-16", 0.0947], ["2023-05-17", 0.098], ["2023-05-17", 0.0987], ["2023-05-18", 0.1007], ["2023-05-19", 0.1007], ["2023-05-19", 0.0993], ["2023-05-20", 0.0827], ["2023-05-21", 0.0847], ["2023-05-22", 0.084], ["2023-05-24", 0.086], ["2023-05-25", 0.086], ["2023-05-26", 0.0853], ["2023-05-27", 0.082], ["2023-05-29", 0.0769], ["2023-05-31", 0.0769], ["2023-05-31", 0.08], ["2023-05-31", 0.08], ["2023-06-01", 0.0794], ["2023-06-03", 0.0844], ["2023-06-03", 0.0813], ["2023-06-04", 0.0781], ["2023-06-04", 0.0781], ["2023-06-05", 0.075], ["2023-06-05", 0.0819], ["2023-06-06", 0.0819], ["2023-06-07", 0.0819]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2663 | True |
2020-08-01 | Will the FA Cup be decided with a penalty shootout? | binary | <p>The FA Cup is "the most famous domestic cup competition in the world" (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/53420073" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="http://www.thefa.com/competitions/thefacup/" target="_blank">The FA</a>). The soccer/football final is scheduled for 1 August 2020 in the UK between Arsenal F.C. and Chelsea F.C.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10px;">Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ </a>or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p>
</p> | 2020-08-01 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2020-07-24 | 0.0 | [["2020-07-24", 0.0], ["2020-07-24", 0.045], ["2020-07-24", 0.05], ["2020-07-24", 0.025], ["2020-07-24", 0.02], ["2020-07-24", 0.01], ["2020-07-24", 0.02], ["2020-07-24", 0.015], ["2020-07-24", 0.02], ["2020-07-24", 0.02], ["2020-07-24", 0.035], ["2020-07-24", 0.05], ["2020-07-24", 0.05], ["2020-07-25", 0.095], ["2020-07-25", 0.12], ["2020-07-25", 0.125], ["2020-07-25", 0.125], ["2020-07-25", 0.125], ["2020-07-25", 0.125], ["2020-07-25", 0.125], ["2020-07-25", 0.105], ["2020-07-25", 0.1], ["2020-07-25", 0.1], ["2020-07-25", 0.1], ["2020-07-25", 0.1], ["2020-07-25", 0.1], ["2020-07-25", 0.1], ["2020-07-25", 0.095], ["2020-07-25", 0.1], ["2020-07-25", 0.1], ["2020-07-25", 0.095], ["2020-07-25", 0.095], ["2020-07-25", 0.1], ["2020-07-25", 0.1], ["2020-07-25", 0.1], ["2020-07-26", 0.1], ["2020-07-26", 0.1], ["2020-07-26", 0.1], ["2020-07-26", 0.1], ["2020-07-26", 0.1], ["2020-07-26", 0.1], ["2020-07-26", 0.1], ["2020-07-26", 0.1], ["2020-07-26", 0.1], ["2020-07-27", 0.1], ["2020-07-27", 0.1], ["2020-07-27", 0.1], ["2020-07-27", 0.1], ["2020-07-27", 0.1], ["2020-07-27", 0.1], ["2020-07-27", 0.1], ["2020-07-27", 0.1], ["2020-07-28", 0.1], ["2020-07-28", 0.1], ["2020-07-28", 0.095], ["2020-07-28", 0.09], ["2020-07-28", 0.09], ["2020-07-28", 0.09], ["2020-07-29", 0.09], ["2020-07-29", 0.09], ["2020-07-29", 0.09], ["2020-07-29", 0.09], ["2020-07-29", 0.09], ["2020-07-29", 0.08], ["2020-07-29", 0.07], ["2020-07-29", 0.07], ["2020-07-29", 0.075], ["2020-07-29", 0.075], ["2020-07-29", 0.07], ["2020-07-30", 0.07], ["2020-07-30", 0.07], ["2020-07-30", 0.07], ["2020-07-30", 0.07], ["2020-07-30", 0.07], ["2020-07-30", 0.07], ["2020-07-30", 0.07], ["2020-07-30", 0.065], ["2020-07-30", 0.06], ["2020-07-30", 0.06], ["2020-07-30", 0.06], ["2020-07-30", 0.055], ["2020-07-30", 0.055], ["2020-07-31", 0.05], ["2020-07-31", 0.05], ["2020-07-31", 0.05], ["2020-07-31", 0.05], ["2020-07-31", 0.05], ["2020-07-31", 0.06], ["2020-07-31", 0.05], ["2020-07-31", 0.055], ["2020-07-31", 0.05], ["2020-07-31", 0.055], ["2020-08-01", 0.055]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1713 | True |
2021-10-01 | Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union? | binary |
<p>An election is expected to be held at a warehouse near Birmingham, Alabama, one of the first times Amazon workers have held a vote on whether to unionize (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-thinking-is-needed-on-workers-rights" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/22/business/amazon-union-vote-bessemer-alabama.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/technology/531500-amazon-workers-in-alabama-inch-closer-to-union-vote" target="_blank">The Hill</a>). A vote must be sanctioned by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to count.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p><p><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 11 January 2021</span>: Any Amazon subsidiary wholly-owned by Amazon would count.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-10-01 | gjopen | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retail,_Wholesale_and_Department_Store_Union", "https://www.siliconrepublic.com/companies/amazon-alabama-union-vote", "https://t.co/5Sh9NgMVIO?amp=1", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/16/technology/amazon-unions-virginia.html", "https://newrepublic.com/article/161524/biden-support-amazon-union-alabama-bfd", "https://www.npr.org/2021/01/28/960869795/for-amazon-and-alabama-warehouse-union-vote-would-shake-up-history", "https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/04/08/business/stock-market-today#amazon-union-vote", "https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2021/aug/02/amazon-warehouse-workers-union-second-vote", "https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-union-battle-at-amazon-is-far-from-over", "https://apnews.com/article/technology-business-c17604ab207b56f5b110a6ca63bb5f09", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazon_worker_organization", "https://thecounter.org/next-weeks-amazon-union-vote-bessamer-alabama-rwdsu/", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/teamsters-union-votes-to-help-organize-amazon-workers-11624558332", "https://www.shrm.org/resourcesandtools/legal-and-compliance/employment-law/pages/nlrb-rule-more-time-before-union-elections.aspx", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1215518", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/09/business/economy/amazon-labor-unions.html", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/04/08/amazon-bessemer-mailbox-union/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-08/amazon-union-vote-count-expected-to-start-as-early-as-thursday?sref=KkPzpZvz", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/jeff-bezos-union-defeat-does-not-bring-comfort/ar-BB1fGNBd", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/NLRB_election_procedures", "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/19/amazon-prevented-free-and-fair-election-in-alabama-union-alleges.html", "https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2021/03/12/amazon-union-not-helping-working-class-economy-column/6947823002/", "https://www.nlrb.gov/reports/graphs-data/recent-filings?f%5B0%5D=case_type%3AR&s%5B0%5D=Open&s%5B1%5D=Open%20-%20Blocked", "https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=amazon%20union", "https://www.ft.com/content/52b88adb-1e69-43cd-93ae-2cbfb83feeb8"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2021-01-07 | 0.0 | [["2021-01-08", 0.5], ["2021-01-08", 0.33], ["2021-01-08", 0.455], ["2021-01-08", 0.95], ["2021-01-09", 0.95], ["2021-01-09", 0.95], ["2021-01-09", 0.9], ["2021-01-09", 0.9], ["2021-01-10", 0.9], ["2021-01-10", 0.9], ["2021-01-10", 0.825], ["2021-01-10", 0.75], ["2021-01-10", 0.705], ["2021-01-10", 0.68], ["2021-01-10", 0.66], ["2021-01-11", 0.68], ["2021-01-11", 0.66], ["2021-01-11", 0.66], ["2021-01-11", 0.66], ["2021-01-11", 0.66], ["2021-01-11", 0.66], ["2021-01-12", 0.655], ["2021-01-12", 0.68], ["2021-01-12", 0.72], ["2021-01-13", 0.74], ["2021-01-13", 0.72], ["2021-01-13", 0.745], ["2021-01-13", 0.745], ["2021-01-14", 0.74], ["2021-01-14", 0.765], ["2021-01-14", 0.805], ["2021-01-14", 0.79], ["2021-01-14", 0.765], ["2021-01-15", 0.78], ["2021-01-15", 0.78], ["2021-01-15", 0.75], ["2021-01-15", 0.75], ["2021-01-16", 0.74], ["2021-01-16", 0.75], ["2021-01-16", 0.73], ["2021-01-16", 0.74], ["2021-01-16", 0.7], ["2021-01-17", 0.65], ["2021-01-17", 0.67], ["2021-01-18", 0.695], ["2021-01-19", 0.65], ["2021-01-19", 0.65], ["2021-01-20", 0.67], ["2021-01-21", 0.66], ["2021-01-21", 0.65], ["2021-01-22", 0.65], ["2021-01-23", 0.65], ["2021-01-23", 0.65], ["2021-01-23", 0.67], ["2021-01-24", 0.69], ["2021-01-24", 0.69], ["2021-01-25", 0.7], ["2021-01-25", 0.675], ["2021-01-26", 0.7], ["2021-01-27", 0.7], ["2021-01-27", 0.715], ["2021-01-27", 0.735], ["2021-01-27", 0.745], ["2021-01-28", 0.745], ["2021-01-28", 0.75], 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0.8], ["2021-04-09", 0.8], ["2021-04-09", 0.76], ["2021-04-09", 0.75], ["2021-04-09", 0.75], ["2021-04-09", 0.75], ["2021-04-09", 0.75], ["2021-04-09", 0.75], ["2021-04-09", 0.75], ["2021-04-09", 0.7], ["2021-04-09", 0.67], ["2021-04-09", 0.65], ["2021-04-09", 0.585], ["2021-04-09", 0.5], ["2021-04-10", 0.43], ["2021-04-10", 0.415], ["2021-04-10", 0.415], ["2021-04-10", 0.41], ["2021-04-11", 0.41], ["2021-04-11", 0.41], ["2021-04-12", 0.33], ["2021-04-12", 0.33], ["2021-04-13", 0.33], ["2021-04-13", 0.29], ["2021-04-13", 0.29], ["2021-04-14", 0.25], ["2021-04-14", 0.25], ["2021-04-15", 0.2], ["2021-04-15", 0.17], ["2021-04-15", 0.15], ["2021-04-15", 0.15], ["2021-04-16", 0.15], ["2021-04-16", 0.15], ["2021-04-17", 0.15], ["2021-04-18", 0.15], ["2021-04-18", 0.145], ["2021-04-18", 0.13], ["2021-04-18", 0.13], ["2021-04-19", 0.115], ["2021-04-19", 0.105], ["2021-04-20", 0.105], ["2021-04-20", 0.105], ["2021-04-20", 0.105], ["2021-04-21", 0.1], ["2021-04-21", 0.1], ["2021-04-22", 0.1], 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["2021-06-02", 0.045], ["2021-06-06", 0.045], ["2021-06-08", 0.045], ["2021-06-09", 0.04], ["2021-06-10", 0.04], ["2021-06-12", 0.04], ["2021-06-13", 0.04], ["2021-06-14", 0.04], ["2021-06-16", 0.04], ["2021-06-16", 0.03], ["2021-06-17", 0.03], ["2021-06-18", 0.03], ["2021-06-22", 0.03], ["2021-06-23", 0.03], ["2021-06-23", 0.03], ["2021-06-24", 0.03], ["2021-06-24", 0.03], ["2021-06-26", 0.03], ["2021-06-26", 0.03], ["2021-06-28", 0.02], ["2021-06-29", 0.02], ["2021-06-29", 0.02], ["2021-07-02", 0.02], ["2021-07-03", 0.02], ["2021-07-04", 0.02], ["2021-07-05", 0.02], ["2021-07-06", 0.02], ["2021-07-07", 0.02], ["2021-07-12", 0.02], ["2021-07-13", 0.02], ["2021-07-15", 0.02], ["2021-07-15", 0.02], ["2021-07-16", 0.02], ["2021-07-18", 0.02], ["2021-07-20", 0.01], ["2021-07-20", 0.01], ["2021-07-20", 0.01], ["2021-07-21", 0.01], ["2021-07-23", 0.01], ["2021-07-27", 0.01], ["2021-07-29", 0.01], ["2021-07-29", 0.01], ["2021-07-30", 0.01], ["2021-08-01", 0.01], ["2021-08-02", 0.01], 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["2021-09-24", 0.0], ["2021-09-24", 0.0], ["2021-09-25", 0.0], ["2021-09-25", 0.0], ["2021-09-26", 0.0], ["2021-09-28", 0.0], ["2021-09-28", 0.0], ["2021-09-28", 0.0], ["2021-09-29", 0.0], ["2021-09-30", 0.0], ["2021-10-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1894 | True |
2021-04-26 | Before 1 October 2021, will the Republic of Chad announce that legislative elections currently scheduled for 24 October 2021 will be postponed or canceled? | binary |
<p>Elections for Chad's legislature, the National Assembly, were last held in 2011, with 2015 elections postponed five times (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/covid-19-will-help-unscrupulous-incumbents-in-african-elections" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.barrons.com/news/chad-sets-october-2021-for-delayed-legislative-election-state-radio-01593699304" target="_blank">Barron's</a>, <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2020/07/03/tchad-les-legislatives-reportees-depuis-5-ans-fixees-a-octobre-2021_6045040_3212.html" target="_blank">Le Monde</a> [in French]).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-05-05 | gjopen | ["https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19", "https://apnews.com/article/travel-politics-africa-chad-ff9e3eaf4ed7398d61c7d260f5abbcce", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1918-before-1-october-2021-will-the-republic-of-chad-announce-that-legislative-elections-currently-scheduled-for-24-october-2021-will-be-postponed-or-canceled", "https://www.theafricareport.com/79552/chad-will-the-11-april-presidential-election-be-idriss-deby-itnos-final-one/", "https://www.justsecurity.org/72318/chads-counterterrorism-support-abroad-drives-repression-and-discontent-at-home/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/real-threat-chads-military-rulers-unemployed-youth-2021-04-30/", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-56815708", "https://www.ktpress.rw/2021/04/chad-president-idriss-deby-dies/", "https://allafrica.com/stories/202104280099.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Chad", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Chadian_parliamentary_election", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/20/chad-president-idriss-deby-dies-military-says", "https://www.africanews.com/2021/03/14/chad-president-kicks-off-campaign-for-sixth-term/", "https://www.thecitizen.co.tz/tanzania/news/africa/chad-s-president-deby-dies-hours-after-winning-sixth-term-3369506", "https://africanarguments.org/2021/04/chad-france-firmly-backs-continuity-but-will-the-people/", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/11/voters-in-chad-head-to-polls-as-leader-debby-seeks-sixth-terms", "https://www.cfr.org/blog/chad-holds-another-sham-election", "https://www.eisa.org/jae19-2.php", "https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/de/aussenpolitik/laender/tschad-node/tschadsicherheit/225774", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/3/1/chad-opposition-leader-quits-presidential-race-after-shootout", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/18/chads-deby-takes-early-election-lead-as-rebels-near", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahamat_D%C3%A9by_Itno#Chairman_of_Military_Council", "https://www.un.org/press/en/2021/sgsm20680.doc.htm", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/2/6/chad-police-confront-protesters-as-deby-nominated-for-sixth-term", "https://www.dw.com/en/chad-president-deby-wins-reelection-extending-30-years-in-power/a-57258862"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2021-01-29 | 1.0 | [["2021-01-29", 0.75], ["2021-01-29", 0.705], ["2021-01-29", 0.75], ["2021-01-29", 0.75], ["2021-01-29", 0.75], ["2021-01-30", 0.775], ["2021-01-30", 0.8], ["2021-01-30", 0.8], ["2021-01-30", 0.8], ["2021-01-30", 0.8], ["2021-01-31", 0.86], ["2021-01-31", 0.8], ["2021-01-31", 0.86], ["2021-01-31", 0.8], ["2021-01-31", 0.86], ["2021-01-31", 0.92], ["2021-01-31", 0.91], ["2021-02-01", 0.9], ["2021-02-01", 0.9], ["2021-02-01", 0.91], ["2021-02-01", 0.9], ["2021-02-01", 0.925], ["2021-02-02", 0.93], ["2021-02-02", 0.93], ["2021-02-02", 0.93], ["2021-02-02", 0.93], ["2021-02-02", 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["2021-04-08", 0.85], ["2021-04-08", 0.85], ["2021-04-09", 0.83], ["2021-04-10", 0.83], ["2021-04-10", 0.83], ["2021-04-10", 0.83], ["2021-04-10", 0.83], ["2021-04-11", 0.83], ["2021-04-11", 0.83], ["2021-04-12", 0.83], ["2021-04-18", 0.83], ["2021-04-18", 0.84], ["2021-04-18", 0.84], ["2021-04-18", 0.84], ["2021-04-18", 0.84], ["2021-04-20", 0.84], ["2021-04-20", 0.82], ["2021-04-20", 0.84], ["2021-04-20", 0.85], ["2021-04-20", 0.85], ["2021-04-20", 0.85], ["2021-04-20", 0.86], ["2021-04-20", 0.86], ["2021-04-20", 0.86], ["2021-04-20", 0.88], ["2021-04-20", 0.895], ["2021-04-20", 0.9], ["2021-04-20", 0.9], ["2021-04-20", 0.9], ["2021-04-20", 0.9], ["2021-04-22", 0.92], ["2021-04-22", 0.92], ["2021-04-22", 0.9], ["2021-04-23", 0.9], ["2021-04-23", 0.9], ["2021-04-23", 0.9], ["2021-04-23", 0.95], ["2021-04-24", 0.925], ["2021-04-24", 0.925], ["2021-04-25", 0.925], ["2021-04-25", 0.95], ["2021-04-26", 0.95], ["2021-04-26", 0.95], ["2021-04-26", 0.95]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1918 | True |
2023-06-30 | In Biden v. Nebraska, will the Supreme Court rule that any of the Respondents in the case has Article III standing to challenge the Biden administration's student loan forgiveness program? | binary |
<p>After President Biden announced in August 2022 his plan to forgive up to $20,000 of federal student loan debt, various groups filed lawsuits to stop it, including the states of Nebraska, Missouri, Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, and South Carolina (Respondents) (<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/08/24/fact-sheet-president-biden-announces-student-loan-relief-for-borrowers-who-need-it-most/" target="_blank">Whitehouse.gov</a>, <a href="https://journalstar.com/news/local/education/nebraska-leads-lawsuit-against-biden-administration-to-stop-student-loan-forgiveness/article_a347aecc-fe33-5b3c-a4cf-4bdd91d6ce25.html" target="_blank">Lincoln Journal Star</a>). Respondents were granted an injunction to prevent the plan from proceeding, eventually leading to the Supreme Court to agree to hear the case on its merits this term (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/14/biden-student-loan-debt-relief-plan-appeals-court-rules.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/loans/supreme-court-to-decide-on-student-loan-debt-relief-what-you-need-to-know/" target="_blank">CNET</a>, <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/biden-v-nebraska/" target="_blank">SCOTUSblog</a>). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2022 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-06-30 | gjopen | ["https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-poll-that-ended-dilbert/id1077418457?i=1000603057166", "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/02/28/supreme-court-biden-student-loan-forgiveness-arguments-live-updates/11326563002/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/25/us/politics/trump-border-wall-lawsuit.html", "https://fantasyscotus.net/case-prediction/department-of-education-v-brown/", "https://twitter.com/MikeSacksEsq/status/1593650842661535750", "https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F24568efb-32fc-414d-a8f0-a171d487cb38_773x293.jpeg", "https://reason.com/volokh/2023/05/06/new-report-on-state-state-standing-in-student-loan-case-comes-up-a-few-dollars-short/", "https://twitter.com/MikeSacksEsq/status/1630588647408795648", "https://www.naag.org/attorney-general-journal/supreme-court-report-biden-v-nebraska-22-506/", "https://reason.com/volokh/2023/02/08/arguments-for-standing-in-the-student-loan-cases/#more-8221817", "https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/22pdf/22-58_i425.pdf", "https://www.law.cornell.edu/supct/html/05-1120.ZD.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massachusetts_v._EPA", "https://scholarship.law.duke.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3224&context=dlj", "https://opencasebook.org/casebooks/1045-public-institutions-administrative-law-cases-materials/resources/4.2.4.1-major-questions-doctrine/#:~:text=The%20%E2%80%9Cmajor%20questions%20doctrine%E2%80%9D%20holds,with%20the%20non-delegation%20doctrine", "https://fantasyscotus.net/case-prediction/biden-v-nebraska/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_State_Rifle_%26_Pistol_Association,_Inc._v._City_of_New_York", "https://twitter.com/ryanbeck111/status/1652519817788772352", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_v._Texas", "https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/01/supreme-court-biden-loan-forgiveness-plan-chances.html", "https://twitter.com/steve_vladeck/status/1672245499578175488", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_House_of_Delegates_v._Bethune-Hill", "https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcripts/2022/22-506_5426.pdf", "https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/04/barrett-student-debt-relief-00065257", "https://adamunikowsky.substack.com/p/does-standing-follow-the-merits"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2022-12-16 | 1.0 | [["2022-12-16", 0.4], ["2022-12-16", 0.2], ["2022-12-16", 0.4667], ["2022-12-16", 0.45], ["2022-12-16", 0.56], ["2022-12-16", 0.56], ["2022-12-17", 0.5667], ["2022-12-17", 0.5857], ["2022-12-18", 0.5638], ["2022-12-18", 0.5622], ["2022-12-18", 0.561], ["2022-12-18", 0.5918], ["2022-12-18", 0.6008], ["2022-12-19", 0.62], ["2022-12-19", 0.6471], ["2022-12-19", 0.6673], ["2022-12-19", 0.6256], ["2022-12-19", 0.6224], ["2022-12-19", 0.6253], ["2022-12-19", 0.6282], ["2022-12-19", 0.6367], ["2022-12-19", 0.6253], ["2022-12-20", 0.655], ["2022-12-20", 0.6753], ["2022-12-20", 0.6782], ["2022-12-21", 0.718], ["2022-12-21", 0.748], ["2022-12-22", 0.7586], ["2022-12-23", 0.725], ["2022-12-23", 0.75], ["2022-12-23", 0.775], ["2022-12-24", 0.768], ["2022-12-26", 0.76], ["2022-12-26", 0.7682], ["2022-12-28", 0.7827], ["2022-12-28", 0.7845], ["2022-12-29", 0.7845], ["2022-12-29", 0.7809], ["2022-12-29", 0.7536], ["2022-12-30", 0.7282], ["2023-01-04", 0.7273], ["2023-01-06", 0.7292], ["2023-01-06", 0.7258], ["2023-01-08", 0.7333], ["2023-01-11", 0.715], ["2023-01-17", 0.7175], ["2023-01-22", 0.7183], ["2023-01-29", 0.7208], ["2023-02-05", 0.8], ["2023-02-05", 0.8058], ["2023-02-06", 0.7767], ["2023-02-09", 0.7808], ["2023-02-13", 0.7808], ["2023-02-18", 0.7883], ["2023-02-23", 0.7967], ["2023-02-28", 0.805], ["2023-02-28", 0.8092], ["2023-02-28", 0.8238], ["2023-02-28", 0.8277], ["2023-02-28", 0.8123], ["2023-02-28", 0.8262], ["2023-03-01", 0.8338], ["2023-03-01", 0.8146], ["2023-03-01", 0.8131], ["2023-03-01", 0.8285], ["2023-03-01", 0.8092], ["2023-03-01", 0.8031], ["2023-03-02", 0.8], ["2023-03-02", 0.8015], ["2023-03-02", 0.8215], ["2023-03-02", 0.8223], ["2023-03-03", 0.8185], ["2023-03-03", 0.8208], ["2023-03-04", 0.8085], ["2023-03-08", 0.8238], ["2023-03-26", 0.8354], ["2023-03-26", 0.8354], ["2023-04-07", 0.83], ["2023-04-13", 0.7538], ["2023-04-15", 0.7523], ["2023-04-30", 0.7462], ["2023-05-01", 0.7515], ["2023-05-07", 0.7546], ["2023-05-12", 0.7721], ["2023-05-17", 0.7721], ["2023-05-23", 0.8379], ["2023-05-24", 0.8386], ["2023-05-26", 0.8429], ["2023-05-26", 0.845], ["2023-05-28", 0.8036], ["2023-06-01", 0.8029], ["2023-06-01", 0.8029], ["2023-06-03", 0.7829], ["2023-06-03", 0.79], ["2023-06-06", 0.7893], ["2023-06-07", 0.7957], ["2023-06-15", 0.7957], ["2023-06-16", 0.7921], ["2023-06-18", 0.7907], ["2023-06-19", 0.7893], ["2023-06-23", 0.7879], ["2023-06-23", 0.7879], ["2023-06-24", 0.7557], ["2023-06-24", 0.7629], ["2023-06-26", 0.7407], ["2023-06-27", 0.698], ["2023-06-27", 0.7513], ["2023-06-29", 0.752], ["2023-06-29", 0.7513], ["2023-06-29", 0.6967], ["2023-06-29", 0.6733], ["2023-06-29", 0.6667], ["2023-06-30", 0.66], ["2023-06-30", 0.66]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2671 | True |
2021-01-01 | Before 1 January 2021, will Alassane Ouattara cease to be the president of Ivory Coast? | binary |
<p>Protests over Ouattara's eligibility to run for re-election have plagued Ivory Coast (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/ivorycoast-politics-idAFL8N2GB4HU" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/09/protests-president-ouattara-term-bid-turn-violent-200914173219454.html" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>). Elections are scheduled for 31 October 2020 and if no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a second round will be held (<a href="https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Cote_DIvoire_2016.pdf?lang=en" target="_blank">Constituteproject.org</a>).</p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-01-02 | gjopen | ["https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/warfare-evolved-quantum-radar/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2020-09-17 | 0.0 | [["2020-09-18", 0.25], ["2020-09-18", 0.125], ["2020-09-18", 0.0], ["2020-09-18", 0.0], ["2020-09-18", 0.0], ["2020-09-18", 0.005], ["2020-09-18", 0.01], ["2020-09-18", 0.01], ["2020-09-18", 0.005], ["2020-09-18", 0.01], ["2020-09-18", 0.005], ["2020-09-19", 0.0], ["2020-09-19", 0.005], ["2020-09-19", 0.01], ["2020-09-19", 0.01], ["2020-09-19", 0.01], ["2020-09-19", 0.015], ["2020-09-19", 0.015], ["2020-09-19", 0.035], ["2020-09-20", 0.035], ["2020-09-20", 0.035], ["2020-09-20", 0.075], ["2020-09-20", 0.075], ["2020-09-20", 0.075], ["2020-09-20", 0.065], ["2020-09-20", 0.15], ["2020-09-21", 0.15], ["2020-09-21", 0.065], ["2020-09-21", 0.065], ["2020-09-21", 0.065], ["2020-09-21", 0.065], ["2020-09-21", 0.065], ["2020-09-22", 0.065], ["2020-09-22", 0.025], ["2020-09-23", 0.025], ["2020-09-23", 0.03], ["2020-09-23", 0.03], ["2020-09-23", 0.02], ["2020-09-24", 0.025], ["2020-09-25", 0.04], ["2020-09-25", 0.03], ["2020-09-26", 0.03], ["2020-09-26", 0.03], ["2020-09-27", 0.03], ["2020-09-27", 0.03], ["2020-09-28", 0.03], ["2020-09-28", 0.03], ["2020-09-29", 0.03], ["2020-09-29", 0.03], ["2020-09-30", 0.03], ["2020-09-30", 0.03], ["2020-10-01", 0.03], ["2020-10-01", 0.03], ["2020-10-01", 0.03], ["2020-10-02", 0.03], ["2020-10-04", 0.03], ["2020-10-05", 0.03], ["2020-10-05", 0.03], ["2020-10-05", 0.04], ["2020-10-06", 0.04], ["2020-10-08", 0.04], ["2020-10-10", 0.04], ["2020-10-12", 0.04], ["2020-10-12", 0.04], ["2020-10-17", 0.04], ["2020-10-18", 0.04], ["2020-10-19", 0.035], ["2020-10-22", 0.035], ["2020-10-23", 0.035], ["2020-10-27", 0.03], ["2020-10-30", 0.03], ["2020-11-02", 0.025], ["2020-11-03", 0.02], ["2020-11-03", 0.02], ["2020-11-04", 0.015], ["2020-11-04", 0.01], ["2020-11-04", 0.01], ["2020-11-05", 0.0], ["2020-11-05", 0.0], ["2020-11-06", 0.0], ["2020-11-08", 0.0], ["2020-11-08", 0.0], ["2020-11-09", 0.0], ["2020-11-10", 0.0], ["2020-11-12", 0.0], ["2020-11-16", 0.0], ["2020-11-20", 0.0], ["2020-11-21", 0.0], ["2020-11-25", 0.0], ["2020-12-02", 0.0], ["2020-12-04", 0.0], ["2020-12-10", 0.0], ["2020-12-10", 0.0], ["2020-12-11", 0.0], ["2020-12-14", 0.0], ["2020-12-19", 0.0], ["2020-12-19", 0.0], ["2020-12-25", 0.0], ["2020-12-25", 0.0], ["2020-12-27", 0.0], ["2020-12-29", 0.0], ["2020-12-29", 0.0], ["2020-12-29", 0.0], ["2020-12-30", 0.0], ["2021-01-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1787 | True |
2023-06-04 | Will the Morena party candidate win the 2023 gubernatorial election in Mexico state (Estado de México)? | binary |
<p>Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's party, Morena, hopes to add the State of Mexico to its list of governorships when voters go to the polls on 4 June 2023 (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2022/11/18/parts-of-latin-america-will-shift-to-the-right-in-2023" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.ccn-law.com/mexico-report-articles/political-thermometer-39" target="_blank">CNN Mexico Report</a>, <a href="https://www.bnamericas.com/en/features/mexicos-2023-elections-whats-at-stake" target="_blank">BNamericas</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-06-05 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2023-02-10 | 1.0 | [["2023-02-10", 0.51], ["2023-02-11", 0.53], ["2023-02-11", 0.52], ["2023-02-11", 0.45], ["2023-02-11", 0.43], ["2023-02-11", 0.4417], ["2023-02-12", 0.4571], ["2023-02-12", 0.4625], ["2023-02-12", 0.465], ["2023-02-13", 0.4633], ["2023-02-13", 0.477], ["2023-02-13", 0.4336], ["2023-02-13", 0.4355], ["2023-02-13", 0.4825], ["2023-02-13", 0.4867], ["2023-02-14", 0.4867], ["2023-02-14", 0.489], ["2023-02-15", 0.494], ["2023-02-15", 0.494], ["2023-02-16", 0.477], ["2023-02-17", 0.462], ["2023-02-17", 0.457], ["2023-02-18", 0.461], ["2023-02-19", 0.503], ["2023-02-20", 0.478], ["2023-02-20", 0.483], ["2023-02-21", 0.497], ["2023-02-21", 0.513], ["2023-02-22", 0.52], ["2023-02-24", 0.537], ["2023-02-24", 0.562], ["2023-02-25", 0.572], ["2023-02-25", 0.576], ["2023-02-25", 0.6055], ["2023-02-26", 0.6245], ["2023-02-27", 0.6473], ["2023-02-27", 0.5933], ["2023-02-27", 0.5933], ["2023-03-01", 0.5808], ["2023-03-01", 0.5575], ["2023-03-01", 0.5492], ["2023-03-03", 0.5446], ["2023-03-05", 0.5692], ["2023-03-06", 0.6], ["2023-03-06", 0.5786], ["2023-03-07", 0.5821], ["2023-03-08", 0.5829], ["2023-03-08", 0.5864], ["2023-03-09", 0.59], ["2023-03-09", 0.5921], ["2023-03-09", 0.595], ["2023-03-09", 0.5957], ["2023-03-11", 0.59], ["2023-03-12", 0.5736], ["2023-03-12", 0.575], ["2023-03-12", 0.5771], ["2023-03-13", 0.5793], ["2023-03-13", 0.58], ["2023-03-15", 0.58], ["2023-03-15", 0.5521], ["2023-03-16", 0.5993], ["2023-03-17", 0.6029], ["2023-03-19", 0.6314], ["2023-03-19", 0.6364], ["2023-03-20", 0.66], ["2023-03-21", 0.69], ["2023-03-22", 0.7014], ["2023-03-28", 0.7043], ["2023-03-29", 0.7043], ["2023-03-29", 0.724], ["2023-03-29", 0.724], ["2023-03-29", 0.724], ["2023-03-30", 0.74], ["2023-03-30", 0.742], ["2023-03-30", 0.7547], ["2023-03-30", 0.7613], ["2023-03-31", 0.762], ["2023-04-01", 0.764], ["2023-04-02", 0.7381], ["2023-04-02", 0.7381], ["2023-04-03", 0.7481], ["2023-04-04", 0.7375], ["2023-04-05", 0.7406], ["2023-04-08", 0.7444], ["2023-04-09", 0.7463], ["2023-04-10", 0.7463], ["2023-04-10", 0.7419], ["2023-04-11", 0.7419], ["2023-04-11", 0.7681], ["2023-04-12", 0.7369], ["2023-04-12", 0.7363], ["2023-04-13", 0.7363], ["2023-04-14", 0.7488], ["2023-04-15", 0.7524], ["2023-04-15", 0.7518], ["2023-04-18", 0.7529], ["2023-04-18", 0.7535], ["2023-04-19", 0.7529], ["2023-04-21", 0.7676], ["2023-04-21", 0.7735], ["2023-04-21", 0.7741], ["2023-04-25", 0.7771], ["2023-04-26", 0.7422], ["2023-04-27", 0.7233], ["2023-04-28", 0.7239], ["2023-04-28", 0.7239], ["2023-04-30", 0.7239], ["2023-05-01", 0.7239], ["2023-05-04", 0.7294], ["2023-05-04", 0.7283], ["2023-05-04", 0.7322], ["2023-05-04", 0.7383], ["2023-05-05", 0.7411], ["2023-05-08", 0.7422], ["2023-05-10", 0.7367], ["2023-05-11", 0.7372], ["2023-05-11", 0.7383], ["2023-05-15", 0.7261], ["2023-05-16", 0.7261], ["2023-05-16", 0.7306], ["2023-05-19", 0.7317], ["2023-05-19", 0.7328], ["2023-05-19", 0.7333], ["2023-05-21", 0.7322], ["2023-05-22", 0.7305], ["2023-05-23", 0.7353], ["2023-05-24", 0.7358], ["2023-05-24", 0.7358], ["2023-05-25", 0.7374], ["2023-05-26", 0.7389], ["2023-05-26", 0.7779], ["2023-05-27", 0.7805], ["2023-05-28", 0.7937], ["2023-05-29", 0.7958], ["2023-05-29", 0.7958], ["2023-05-29", 0.7974], ["2023-05-29", 0.8053], ["2023-05-29", 0.8126], ["2023-05-30", 0.8132], ["2023-05-31", 0.8221], ["2023-05-31", 0.826], ["2023-05-31", 0.823], ["2023-05-31", 0.825], ["2023-06-01", 0.827], ["2023-06-01", 0.8295], ["2023-06-01", 0.8345], ["2023-06-01", 0.8345], ["2023-06-02", 0.8245], ["2023-06-02", 0.8595], ["2023-06-02", 0.8715], ["2023-06-02", 0.8725], ["2023-06-02", 0.873], ["2023-06-03", 0.8765], ["2023-06-03", 0.8815], ["2023-06-04", 0.8815]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2761 | True |
2022-01-01 | Between 16 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, will ASML obtain an export license from the Netherlands to export an Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography system to the People's Republic of China? | binary |
<p>ASML is a Dutch company which leads in the development and manufacturing of UV lithography systems (<a href="https://www.asml.com/en" target="_blank">ASML.com</a>). It currently controls the supply of Extreme Ultraviolet lithography systems, used in the manufacturing of cutting edge computer processor chips (<a href="https://medium.com/@ASMLcompany/a-backgrounder-on-extreme-ultraviolet-euv-lithography-a5fccb8e99f4" target="_blank">Medium</a>, <a href="https://www.asml.com/en/products/euv-lithography-systems" target="_blank">ASML.com</a>, <a href="https://www.laserfocusworld.com/blogs/article/14039015/how-does-the-laser-technology-in-euv-lithography-work" target="_blank">Laser Focus World</a>). ASML is required to obtain a license from the Netherlands to export these systems to China, which has become an issue of geopolitical contention (<a href="https://asiatimes.com/2021/03/china-takes-first-baby-step-towards-chip-self-reliance/" target="_blank">Asia Times</a>, <a href="https://bits-chips.nl/artikel/us-report-recommends-sinking-more-asml-exports-to-china/" target="_blank">B1ts & Ch1ps</a>). To learn more about the export licensing process in the Netherlands, please see: https://www.government.nl/topics/export-controls-of-strategic-goods/export-control-policy-for-strategic-goods, https://www.government.nl/topics/export-controls-of-strategic-goods/question-and-answer/how-can-i-obtain-an-export-licence-for-strategic-goods-or-dual-use-goods. A subsidiary of ASML obtaining a relevant export license would count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-01-03 | gjopen | ["https://www.clingendael.org/sites/default/files/2019-08/Report_US-China_stand-off.pdf", "https://thediplomat.com/2019/10/europes-next-move-and-the-us-china-standoff/", "https://www.clingendael.org/publication/dealing-china-high-tech-issues", "https://hcss.nl/news/door-eindhovense-chips-zit-nederland-klem-tussen-china-en-amerika-europa-moet-in-actie-komen/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kcN9CDSDAE4", "https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2021/03/vigilance-needed-to-head-off-chinese-government-influences-report/", "https://leidenasiacentre.nl/en/", "https://www.clingendael.org/publication/us-china-trade-tech-stand", "https://leidenasiacentre.nl/en/report-chinas-role-in-digital-standards-for-emerging-technologies-impacts-on-the-netherlands-and-europe/", "https://www.clingendael.org/sites/default/files/2020-12/Report_Dealing_with_China_December_2020_0.pdf", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/04/technology/tech-cold-war-chips.html?referringSource=articleShare", "https://wccftech.com/chinas-top-chipmaker-smic-loses-vice-chairman-after-failing-to-procure-advanced-machines/", "https://nltimes.nl/2021/05/21/huawei-blocked-core-5g-networks-major-dutch-providers", "https://www.clingendael.org/sites/default/files/2020-07/Report_Digital_Silk_Road_July_2020.pdf", "https://ecfr.eu/publication/europe_digital_sovereignty_rulemaker_superpower_age_us_china_rivalry/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/on-small-business/biden-needs-more-than-52-billion-to-counter-china-in-chips/2021/06/09/55d860f6-c987-11eb-8708-64991f2acf28_story.html", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-wants-a-chip-machine-from-the-dutch-the-u-s-said-no-11626514513", "http://beltroadresearch.com/", "https://hcss.nl/", "https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/100-day-supply-chain-review-report.pdf", "https://leidenasiacentre.nl/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/F.N.-Pieke.-Chinas-invloed-en-de-Chinese-gemeenschap-in-Nederland.pdf", "https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/biden-will-need-more-than-52-billion-to-counter-china-in-chips", "https://merics.org/sites/default/files/2020-04/MPOC_No.7_ChinasDigitalRise_web_final_2.pdf", "https://www.ft.com/content/e4c7df1a-5048-4cf1-8a2d-c9a2d721ba92", "https://leidenasiacentre.nl/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Chinas-Role-in-Digital-Standards-for-Emerging-Technologies.pdf"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2021-04-16 | 0.0 | [["2021-04-16", 0.0], ["2021-04-16", 0.005], ["2021-04-16", 0.01], ["2021-04-17", 0.005], ["2021-04-17", 0.0], ["2021-04-17", 0.005], ["2021-04-17", 0.0], ["2021-04-17", 0.0], ["2021-04-17", 0.0], ["2021-04-17", 0.0], ["2021-04-18", 0.0], ["2021-04-18", 0.0], ["2021-04-18", 0.0], ["2021-04-18", 0.0], ["2021-04-18", 0.0], ["2021-04-18", 0.0], ["2021-04-18", 0.0], ["2021-04-18", 0.0], ["2021-04-18", 0.0], ["2021-04-18", 0.0], ["2021-04-18", 0.0], ["2021-04-18", 0.0], ["2021-04-19", 0.0], ["2021-04-19", 0.0], ["2021-04-19", 0.0], ["2021-04-19", 0.0], ["2021-04-20", 0.0], ["2021-04-20", 0.0], ["2021-04-21", 0.015], ["2021-04-21", 0.01], ["2021-04-21", 0.02], ["2021-04-21", 0.01], ["2021-04-21", 0.05], ["2021-04-21", 0.05], ["2021-04-21", 0.05], ["2021-04-22", 0.05], ["2021-04-22", 0.05], ["2021-04-22", 0.05], ["2021-04-22", 0.06], ["2021-04-22", 0.07], ["2021-04-22", 0.085], ["2021-04-22", 0.1], ["2021-04-22", 0.085], ["2021-04-23", 0.13], ["2021-04-23", 0.16], ["2021-04-23", 0.16], ["2021-04-23", 0.18], ["2021-04-23", 0.13], ["2021-04-24", 0.065], ["2021-04-24", 0.065], ["2021-04-25", 0.065], ["2021-04-25", 0.065], ["2021-04-25", 0.06], ["2021-04-25", 0.06], ["2021-04-26", 0.05], ["2021-04-26", 0.05], ["2021-04-26", 0.045], ["2021-04-27", 0.045], ["2021-04-27", 0.045], ["2021-04-27", 0.045], ["2021-04-27", 0.035], ["2021-04-29", 0.035], ["2021-04-29", 0.035], ["2021-05-01", 0.035], ["2021-05-01", 0.035], ["2021-05-01", 0.035], ["2021-05-02", 0.03], ["2021-05-02", 0.03], ["2021-05-02", 0.03], ["2021-05-02", 0.03], ["2021-05-03", 0.02], ["2021-05-03", 0.025], ["2021-05-03", 0.025], ["2021-05-04", 0.02], ["2021-05-04", 0.015], ["2021-05-04", 0.015], ["2021-05-05", 0.015], ["2021-05-05", 0.015], ["2021-05-05", 0.02], ["2021-05-06", 0.02], ["2021-05-06", 0.02], ["2021-05-06", 0.02], ["2021-05-06", 0.03], ["2021-05-07", 0.03], ["2021-05-10", 0.03], ["2021-05-10", 0.03], ["2021-05-11", 0.03], ["2021-05-12", 0.03], ["2021-05-13", 0.025], ["2021-05-14", 0.025], ["2021-05-17", 0.02], ["2021-05-17", 0.02], ["2021-05-18", 0.025], ["2021-05-18", 0.02], ["2021-05-20", 0.015], ["2021-05-21", 0.015], ["2021-05-21", 0.015], ["2021-05-22", 0.015], ["2021-05-23", 0.015], ["2021-05-25", 0.02], ["2021-05-26", 0.02], ["2021-05-27", 0.02], ["2021-05-28", 0.02], ["2021-06-01", 0.02], ["2021-06-02", 0.02], ["2021-06-03", 0.02], ["2021-06-05", 0.02], ["2021-06-05", 0.02], ["2021-06-05", 0.02], ["2021-06-07", 0.02], ["2021-06-08", 0.02], ["2021-06-08", 0.02], ["2021-06-10", 0.02], ["2021-06-14", 0.015], ["2021-06-15", 0.02], ["2021-06-17", 0.02], ["2021-06-20", 0.02], ["2021-06-21", 0.02], ["2021-06-21", 0.02], ["2021-06-24", 0.02], ["2021-06-28", 0.02], ["2021-06-29", 0.02], ["2021-07-01", 0.015], ["2021-07-01", 0.01], ["2021-07-02", 0.01], ["2021-07-02", 0.01], ["2021-07-02", 0.005], ["2021-07-02", 0.01], ["2021-07-03", 0.01], ["2021-07-06", 0.01], ["2021-07-07", 0.01], ["2021-07-07", 0.01], ["2021-07-10", 0.01], ["2021-07-17", 0.005], ["2021-07-18", 0.005], ["2021-07-20", 0.005], ["2021-07-22", 0.0], ["2021-07-22", 0.0], ["2021-07-23", 0.0], ["2021-07-25", 0.0], ["2021-07-27", 0.0], ["2021-07-27", 0.0], ["2021-07-27", 0.0], ["2021-07-27", 0.0], ["2021-07-29", 0.0], ["2021-07-29", 0.0], ["2021-07-29", 0.0], ["2021-07-30", 0.0], ["2021-08-04", 0.0], ["2021-08-05", 0.0], ["2021-08-05", 0.0], ["2021-08-05", 0.0], ["2021-08-06", 0.0], ["2021-08-07", 0.0], ["2021-08-07", 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["2021-11-10", 0.0], ["2021-11-13", 0.0], ["2021-11-15", 0.0], ["2021-11-16", 0.0], ["2021-11-16", 0.0], ["2021-11-18", 0.0], ["2021-11-19", 0.0], ["2021-11-21", 0.0], ["2021-12-03", 0.0], ["2021-12-04", 0.0], ["2021-12-06", 0.0], ["2021-12-09", 0.0], ["2021-12-13", 0.0], ["2021-12-13", 0.0], ["2021-12-14", 0.0], ["2021-12-16", 0.0], ["2021-12-17", 0.0], ["2021-12-19", 0.0], ["2021-12-20", 0.0], ["2021-12-20", 0.0], ["2021-12-23", 0.0], ["2021-12-26", 0.0], ["2021-12-26", 0.0], ["2021-12-27", 0.0], ["2021-12-29", 0.0], ["2021-12-29", 0.0], ["2021-12-30", 0.0], ["2021-12-30", 0.0], ["2021-12-31", 0.0], ["2021-12-31", 0.0], ["2022-01-01", 0.0], ["2022-01-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1989 | True |
2021-09-01 | Will Scott Morrison cease to be prime minister of Australia before 1 September 2021? | binary |
<p>A series of rape and sexual assault allegations has hit the Australian Parliament (<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-23/scott-morrison-missteps-fuel-frustration-within-the-coalition/100022234" target="_blank">ABC Australia</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/mar/23/australias-prime-minister-vows-to-clean-up-parliament-in-wake-of-new-allegations" target="_blank">Guardian</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-56261504" target="_blank">BBC</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-09-01 | gjopen | ["https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-22/barnaby-joyce-return-creates-problems-for-scott-morrison/100230758", "https://antonygreen.com.au/when-can-the-next-federal-election-be-held/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Australian_federal_election", "https://bit.ly/3xj2UnT", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1296299", "https://qsuper.qld.gov.au/calculators-and-forms/calculators/retirement-planning/life-expectancy", "https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/vaccinations-alone-will-not-end-sydneys-covid-19-lockdown-scott-morrison-2497342", "https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/may/06/scott-morrison-accidentally-endorses-beijing-policy-for-taiwan-in-foreign-policy-blunder", "https://theconversation.com/barnaby-joyce-scores-dismal-ratings-in-resolve-poll-while-berejiklian-government-easily-in-front-despite-nsw-lockdown-164936", "https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jul/29/from-its-not-a-race-to-go-for-gold-how-scott-morrison-pivoted-on-australias-covid-vaccine-rollout", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1260326", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/13/scott-morrison-and-joe-biden-focus-on-indo-pacific-in-first-face-to-face-meeting", "https://essentialvision.com.au/category/essentialreport", "https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/may/17/scott-morrison-rejects-calls-for-quicker-australia-border-reopening-citing-cautious-approach", "https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-22/coalition-labor-covid-delays-political-internal-party-divisions/100312166", "https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jul/21/scott-morrison-refuses-to-apologise-for-covid-vaccine-rollout-in-clash-with-kiis-fm-host", "https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/05/07/asia-pacific/politics-diplomacy-asia-pacific/australia-morrison-rebound/", "https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/coalition-loses-ground-amid-slow-vaccine-rollout-newspoll/news-story/4d009ba02a6daaebac66a1b12747681a", "https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2021/07/17/atkins-morrison-early-election/", "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/sports/blood-on-your-hands-michael-slater-slams-australian-pm-scott-morrison/articleshow/82372161.cms", "https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Australian_federal_election", "https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/30/statement-nsw-police-raises-questions-christian-porter-denial-sex-with-accuser", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1279886", "https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/costs-blow-out-on-coalition-parking-projects-funded-without-full-scoping-20210701-p585zb.html", "https://www.news.com.au/world/cnn-bloomberg-bbc-reacts-to-australias-vaccine-rollout/news-story/2b1473613de8bb5aeac8299bd453ae93"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2021-04-01 | 0.0 | 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2021-05-06 | Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero? | binary |
<p>The Bank of England's benchmark interest rate is known as the "Bank Rate" (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/britain-will-face-disruption-and-deficit-while-many-britons-will-face-the-dole" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate" target="_blank">Bank of England</a>). Amid the COVID-19 pandemic and negotiations with the EU regarding an end to the Brexit transition period, the Bank of England has explored setting negative interest rates for the UK (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54314971" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/20/bank-of-england-negative-interest-rates-gertjan-vlieghe-covid" target="_blank">Guardian</a>, <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/uk-banks-ready-for-painful-negative-interest-rates-market-has-baked-them-in-61330250" target="_blank">S&P Global</a>, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/72500c20-4a49-4fa9-a3c8-40ce1d26f436" target="_blank">Financial Times</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-05-07 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2020-12-11 | 0.0 | [["2020-12-11", 1.0], ["2020-12-11", 0.5], ["2020-12-11", 0.15], ["2020-12-11", 0.075], ["2020-12-11", 0.11], ["2020-12-11", 0.08], ["2020-12-11", 0.05], ["2020-12-11", 0.025], ["2020-12-12", 0.05], ["2020-12-12", 0.08], ["2020-12-12", 0.05], ["2020-12-12", 0.05], ["2020-12-12", 0.05], ["2020-12-12", 0.05], ["2020-12-12", 0.05], ["2020-12-12", 0.04], ["2020-12-12", 0.03], ["2020-12-12", 0.04], ["2020-12-12", 0.03], ["2020-12-12", 0.03], ["2020-12-12", 0.03], ["2020-12-12", 0.025], ["2020-12-13", 0.03], ["2020-12-13", 0.03], ["2020-12-13", 0.02], ["2020-12-13", 0.025], ["2020-12-13", 0.02], ["2020-12-13", 0.02], ["2020-12-13", 0.01], ["2020-12-13", 0.015], ["2020-12-13", 0.015], ["2020-12-13", 0.02], ["2020-12-13", 0.02], ["2020-12-13", 0.02], ["2020-12-13", 0.02], ["2020-12-13", 0.02], ["2020-12-13", 0.02], 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["2020-12-21", 0.1], ["2020-12-21", 0.1], ["2020-12-21", 0.1], ["2020-12-21", 0.09], ["2020-12-21", 0.09], ["2020-12-21", 0.1], ["2020-12-22", 0.1], ["2020-12-22", 0.1], ["2020-12-22", 0.1], ["2020-12-22", 0.1], ["2020-12-22", 0.1], ["2020-12-23", 0.1], ["2020-12-23", 0.09], ["2020-12-23", 0.09], ["2020-12-23", 0.09], ["2020-12-23", 0.07], ["2020-12-23", 0.08], ["2020-12-24", 0.08], ["2020-12-24", 0.06], ["2020-12-24", 0.07], ["2020-12-24", 0.07], ["2020-12-24", 0.07], ["2020-12-24", 0.07], ["2020-12-24", 0.07], ["2020-12-25", 0.08], ["2020-12-25", 0.08], ["2020-12-25", 0.08], ["2020-12-25", 0.1], ["2020-12-25", 0.1], ["2020-12-25", 0.09], ["2020-12-26", 0.09], ["2020-12-26", 0.07], ["2020-12-26", 0.07], ["2020-12-26", 0.08], ["2020-12-26", 0.08], ["2020-12-26", 0.07], ["2020-12-26", 0.07], ["2020-12-27", 0.07], ["2020-12-27", 0.06], ["2020-12-27", 0.08], ["2020-12-27", 0.08], ["2020-12-27", 0.07], ["2020-12-27", 0.07], ["2020-12-27", 0.09], ["2020-12-27", 0.09], ["2020-12-27", 0.095], ["2020-12-28", 0.09], ["2020-12-28", 0.09], ["2020-12-28", 0.09], ["2020-12-28", 0.07], ["2020-12-28", 0.07], ["2020-12-28", 0.05], ["2020-12-28", 0.05], ["2020-12-29", 0.05], ["2020-12-29", 0.05], ["2020-12-29", 0.05], ["2020-12-29", 0.05], ["2020-12-29", 0.05], ["2020-12-29", 0.05], ["2020-12-30", 0.05], ["2020-12-30", 0.05], ["2020-12-30", 0.05], ["2020-12-30", 0.05], ["2020-12-30", 0.05], ["2020-12-30", 0.05], ["2020-12-30", 0.05], ["2020-12-30", 0.05], ["2020-12-31", 0.05], ["2020-12-31", 0.05], ["2020-12-31", 0.05], ["2020-12-31", 0.05], ["2020-12-31", 0.05], ["2020-12-31", 0.05], ["2020-12-31", 0.05], ["2021-01-01", 0.05], ["2021-01-01", 0.05], ["2021-01-01", 0.07], ["2021-01-01", 0.07], ["2021-01-01", 0.09], ["2021-01-02", 0.1], ["2021-01-02", 0.09], ["2021-01-02", 0.07], ["2021-01-02", 0.05], ["2021-01-02", 0.05], ["2021-01-02", 0.05], ["2021-01-02", 0.05], ["2021-01-03", 0.05], ["2021-01-03", 0.05], ["2021-01-03", 0.05], ["2021-01-04", 0.07], ["2021-01-04", 0.09], 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0.03], ["2021-02-12", 0.03], ["2021-02-12", 0.03], ["2021-02-12", 0.03], ["2021-02-12", 0.03], ["2021-02-12", 0.03], ["2021-02-12", 0.03], ["2021-02-13", 0.03], ["2021-02-13", 0.03], ["2021-02-13", 0.03], ["2021-02-14", 0.03], ["2021-02-14", 0.03], ["2021-02-15", 0.03], ["2021-02-15", 0.03], ["2021-02-16", 0.03], ["2021-02-16", 0.03], ["2021-02-17", 0.03], ["2021-02-17", 0.03], ["2021-02-18", 0.03], ["2021-02-19", 0.03], ["2021-02-20", 0.03], ["2021-02-20", 0.03], ["2021-02-20", 0.03], ["2021-02-20", 0.025], ["2021-02-21", 0.02], ["2021-02-21", 0.02], ["2021-02-21", 0.02], ["2021-02-22", 0.02], ["2021-02-22", 0.02], ["2021-02-22", 0.02], ["2021-02-22", 0.02], ["2021-02-22", 0.02], ["2021-02-22", 0.02], ["2021-02-23", 0.02], ["2021-02-23", 0.02], ["2021-02-23", 0.02], ["2021-02-24", 0.02], ["2021-02-25", 0.02], ["2021-02-28", 0.02], ["2021-02-28", 0.02], ["2021-03-01", 0.01], ["2021-03-01", 0.01], ["2021-03-01", 0.01], ["2021-03-01", 0.01], ["2021-03-01", 0.01], ["2021-03-02", 0.01], 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0.0], ["2021-03-20", 0.0], ["2021-03-21", 0.0], ["2021-03-21", 0.0], ["2021-03-22", 0.0], ["2021-03-23", 0.0], ["2021-03-23", 0.0], ["2021-03-23", 0.0], ["2021-03-24", 0.0], ["2021-03-25", 0.0], ["2021-03-25", 0.0], ["2021-03-25", 0.0], ["2021-03-27", 0.0], ["2021-03-29", 0.0], ["2021-03-30", 0.0], ["2021-03-31", 0.0], ["2021-03-31", 0.0], ["2021-03-31", 0.0], ["2021-03-31", 0.0], ["2021-03-31", 0.0], ["2021-04-01", 0.0], ["2021-04-01", 0.0], ["2021-04-02", 0.0], ["2021-04-04", 0.0], ["2021-04-05", 0.0], ["2021-04-05", 0.0], ["2021-04-05", 0.0], ["2021-04-06", 0.0], ["2021-04-06", 0.0], ["2021-04-06", 0.0], ["2021-04-07", 0.0], ["2021-04-07", 0.0], ["2021-04-08", 0.0], ["2021-04-08", 0.0], ["2021-04-09", 0.0], ["2021-04-09", 0.0], ["2021-04-10", 0.0], ["2021-04-12", 0.0], ["2021-04-12", 0.0], ["2021-04-12", 0.0], ["2021-04-12", 0.0], ["2021-04-13", 0.0], ["2021-04-13", 0.0], ["2021-04-14", 0.0], ["2021-04-15", 0.0], ["2021-04-15", 0.0], ["2021-04-16", 0.0], ["2021-04-18", 0.0], ["2021-04-18", 0.0], ["2021-04-18", 0.0], ["2021-04-18", 0.0], ["2021-04-20", 0.0], ["2021-04-20", 0.0], ["2021-04-22", 0.0], ["2021-04-22", 0.0], ["2021-04-23", 0.0], ["2021-04-23", 0.0], ["2021-04-24", 0.0], ["2021-04-25", 0.0], ["2021-04-26", 0.0], ["2021-04-28", 0.0], ["2021-04-28", 0.0], ["2021-04-29", 0.0], ["2021-04-29", 0.0], ["2021-04-29", 0.0], ["2021-04-29", 0.0], ["2021-04-29", 0.0], ["2021-04-29", 0.0], ["2021-04-30", 0.0], ["2021-05-01", 0.0], ["2021-05-01", 0.0], ["2021-05-01", 0.0], ["2021-05-02", 0.0], ["2021-05-02", 0.0], ["2021-05-03", 0.0], ["2021-05-03", 0.0], ["2021-05-04", 0.0], ["2021-05-04", 0.0], ["2021-05-04", 0.0], ["2021-05-04", 0.0], ["2021-05-04", 0.0], ["2021-05-04", 0.0], ["2021-05-04", 0.0], ["2021-05-04", 0.0], ["2021-05-05", 0.0], ["2021-05-05", 0.0], ["2021-05-05", 0.0], ["2021-05-05", 0.0], ["2021-05-06", 0.0], ["2021-05-06", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1861 | True |
2020-10-12 | Will an NBA Finals series decide a 2020 NBA Champion before 15 October 2020? | binary |
<p>The National Basketball Association (NBA), which announced the suspension of the 2019-20 season on 11 March 2020 due to COVID-19, is planning to restart in late July 2020 (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-nba-has-a-plan-to-restart-the-season-11591207131" target="_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>, <a href="https://www.nba.com/nba-returns-2020-faq" target="_blank">NBA</a>). The Finals are scheduled to end no later than 13 October 2020 as of the launch of this question.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2020-10-12 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2020-07-03 | 1.0 | [["2020-07-03", 0.43], ["2020-07-03", 0.69], ["2020-07-03", 0.43], ["2020-07-03", 0.215], ["2020-07-03", 0.43], ["2020-07-03", 0.29], ["2020-07-03", 0.43], ["2020-07-03", 0.29], ["2020-07-04", 0.28], ["2020-07-04", 0.355], ["2020-07-04", 0.305], ["2020-07-04", 0.305], ["2020-07-04", 0.305], ["2020-07-04", 0.415], ["2020-07-04", 0.525], ["2020-07-04", 0.66], ["2020-07-04", 0.64], ["2020-07-04", 0.64], ["2020-07-05", 0.64], ["2020-07-05", 0.79], ["2020-07-05", 0.79], ["2020-07-05", 0.79], ["2020-07-05", 0.875], ["2020-07-05", 0.9], ["2020-07-05", 0.875], ["2020-07-05", 0.85], ["2020-07-05", 0.85], ["2020-07-05", 0.85], ["2020-07-05", 0.81], ["2020-07-06", 0.81], ["2020-07-06", 0.685], ["2020-07-06", 0.685], ["2020-07-07", 0.6], ["2020-07-07", 0.55], ["2020-07-07", 0.575], ["2020-07-07", 0.525], ["2020-07-07", 0.525], ["2020-07-07", 0.5], ["2020-07-08", 0.47], ["2020-07-08", 0.46], ["2020-07-08", 0.46], ["2020-07-08", 0.45], ["2020-07-08", 0.45], ["2020-07-08", 0.47], ["2020-07-08", 0.45], ["2020-07-08", 0.435], ["2020-07-08", 0.425], ["2020-07-09", 0.4], ["2020-07-09", 0.4], ["2020-07-09", 0.4], ["2020-07-09", 0.375], ["2020-07-09", 0.35], ["2020-07-09", 0.35], ["2020-07-09", 0.34], ["2020-07-09", 0.32], ["2020-07-09", 0.32], ["2020-07-09", 0.34], ["2020-07-10", 0.33], ["2020-07-10", 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2022-10-01 | Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 1 October 2022? | binary |
<p>Section 230 is a statute that protects social media companies from liability for content their users post (<a href="https://www.theverge.com/21273768/section-230-explained-internet-speech-law-definition-guide-free-moderation" target="_blank">The Verge</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-section-230-an-expert-on-internet-law-and-regulation-explains-the-legislation-that-paved-the-way-for-facebook-google-and-twitter-164993" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>, <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/230" target="_blank">Cornell</a>). There are multiple proposals under debate for its modification (<a href="https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2021/10/algorithms-shouldnt-be-protected-by-section-230-facebook-whistleblower-tells-senate/" target="_blank">Ars Technica</a>, <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/techstream/legislative-efforts-and-policy-frameworks-within-the-section-230-debate/" target="_blank">Brookings Institution</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>
| 2022-10-02 | gjopen | ["https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/8612?r=42&s=1", "https://www.cbs58.com/news/a-controversial-bill-to-protect-kids-online-just-advanced-in-the-senate-heres-what-you-should-know", "https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/2972/text", "https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3421/text", "https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-truth-social-broke-software-rules-30-days-to-comply-2021-10", "https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/2725/text", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2160-will-legislation-amending-or-repealing-section-230-of-the-communications-act-of-1934-become-law-before-1-october-2022/www.gjopen.com/comments/1345939", "https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/2448/text?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%5B%22Health+Misinformation+Act%22%5D%7D&r=1&s=3", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/white-house-renews-call-to-e2-80-98remove-e2-80-99-section-230-liability-shield/ar-AA11C3i3", "https://www.brookings.edu/research/the-politics-of-section-230-reform-learning-from-fostas-mistakes/", "https://www.yahoo.com/gma/truth-social-could-trump-infusion-183400496.html", "https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/230", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/01/06/facebook-boogaloo-lawsuit/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_Media_&_Technology_Group", "https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20211004/11400447697/why-section-230-reform-effectively-means-section-230-repeal.shtml", "https://www.politico.com/news/2021/11/18/justice-department-tech-protections-biden-522990", "https://slate.com/technology/2021/03/section-230-reform-legislative-tracker.html", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/21/obama-calls-for-tech-regulation-to-combat-disinformation-on-internet.html", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senators-announce-bipartisan-social-media-data-transparency-bill-2021-12-09/", "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2022/05/03/fact-check-psakis-comments-section-230-taken-out-context/9572495002/", "https://time.com/6121931/frances-haugen-facebook-whistleblower-profile/", "https://energycommerce.house.gov/newsroom/press-releases/ec-leaders-announce-legislation-to-reform-section-230", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1356042", "https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/3538"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2021-10-15 | 0.0 | [["2021-10-15", 1.0], ["2021-10-15", 0.65], ["2021-10-15", 0.5433333333333333], ["2021-10-16", 0.415], ["2021-10-16", 0.522], ["2021-10-17", 0.405], ["2021-10-17", 0.45], ["2021-10-17", 0.485], ["2021-10-18", 0.534], ["2021-10-18", 0.488], ["2021-10-18", 0.453], ["2021-10-18", 0.349], ["2021-10-19", 0.275], ["2021-10-19", 0.273], ["2021-10-19", 0.27636363636363637], ["2021-10-19", 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0.0139]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2160 | True |
2022-05-28 | Between 2 May 2022 and 27 May 2022, will the 7-day moving average of new daily cases of COVID-19 in the US reach or exceed 120,000? | binary |
<p>The US saw a rise in COVID cases in April 2022 (<a href="https://www.axios.com/covid-cases-rise-across-bulk-of-the-us-1c5e8d29-d1c5-45eb-9678-85dc7ab863eb.html" target="_blank">Axios</a>). The question will be suspended on 27 May 2022 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the CDC (<a href="https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases" target="_blank">CDC COVID Data Tracker</a>). Data for specific dates will not be evaluated for resolution until at least four calendar days later (e.g., data for 10 May 2022 would not be evaluated until 14 May 2022).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>
| 2022-05-31 | gjopen | ["https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/09/01/816707182/map-tracking-the-spread-of-the-coronavirus-in-the-u-s", "https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1449899", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1448537", "https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/", "https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=USA", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1449637", "https://deadline.com/2022/05/covid-omicron-ba-2-12-1-united-states-1235020383/", "https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1521600052757680131?s=20&t=pfsG6QkP5H5ePtV5hAQuHw", "https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2022-04-29 | 0.0 | [["2022-04-29", 0.0], ["2022-04-30", 0.5], ["2022-04-30", 0.0], ["2022-04-30", 0.14], ["2022-04-30", 0.0], ["2022-04-30", 0.14], ["2022-04-30", 0.0], ["2022-05-01", 0.14], ["2022-05-01", 0.0], ["2022-05-01", 0.025], ["2022-05-01", 0.0], ["2022-05-01", 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["2022-05-26", 0.175], ["2022-05-26", 0.13], ["2022-05-26", 0.125], ["2022-05-26", 0.125], ["2022-05-26", 0.1], ["2022-05-26", 0.1], ["2022-05-26", 0.1], ["2022-05-26", 0.1], ["2022-05-27", 0.1], ["2022-05-27", 0.1], ["2022-05-27", 0.1], ["2022-05-27", 0.085], ["2022-05-27", 0.085], ["2022-05-27", 0.07], ["2022-05-27", 0.05], ["2022-05-27", 0.05], ["2022-05-27", 0.05], ["2022-05-27", 0.05], ["2022-05-27", 0.05], ["2022-05-27", 0.05], ["2022-05-27", 0.05], ["2022-05-28", 0.04], ["2022-05-28", 0.025], ["2022-05-28", 0.025]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2378 | True |
2022-01-01 | Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher? | binary |
<p>The Winds of Winter is the sixth novel in the fantasy series that inspired HBO's Game of Thrones (<a href="https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/game-of-thrones" target="_blank">Rotten Tomatoes</a>). There has been talk that the book could be released soon, though similar claims have been made in the past (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/books/george-rr-martin-winds-of-winter.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href="https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/books/1359042/Winds-of-Winter-release-date-George-RR-Martin-blog-ASOIAF-expert-Game-of-Thrones" target="_blank">Express</a>, <a href="https://ew.com/article/2015/04/03/george-rr-martin-winds-date/" target="_blank">Entertainment Weekly</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.2;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 7 April 2021</span>: Yes, an announced release date of what would be the sixth book in the series would count even if the title is changed from "The Winds of Winter.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-01-03 | gjopen | ["https://www.polygon.com/game-of-thrones/2021/1/21/22242930/hbo-game-of-thrones-series-dunk-and-egg-george-r-r-martin", "https://georgerrmartin.com/notablog/2021/02/02/reflections-on-a-bad-year/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter", "https://georgerrmartin.com/notablog/tag/writing/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Winds_of_Winter#Writing_history", "https://bryndenbfish.substack.com/p/the-ultimate-winds-of-winter-resource", "https://www.etonline.com/hbo-expanding-game-of-thrones-universe-with-3-new-spinoffs-162594", "https://www.gamespot.com/articles/george-r-r-martin-pitched-5-shows-to-hbo-in-2020-and-they-said-yes-to-roadmarks/1100-6488091/", "https://epicstream.com/news/MadalenaDaleziou/Why-George-RR-Martin-Is-Taking-So-Long-to-Write-The-Winds-of-Winter", "https://georgerrmartin.com/notablog/", "https://www.etonline.com/game-of-thrones-spinoff-series-house-of-the-dragon-starting-production-in-2021-157285", "https://georgerrmartin.com/notablog/2021/02/02/reflections-on-a-bad-year/", "https://www.inverse.com/entertainment/winds-of-winter-release-date-prophecy-azor-ahai", "https://www.hbo.com/house-of-the-dragon", "https://georgerrmartin.com/notablog/2019/05/21/thanks-new-zealand/", "https://georgerrmartin.com/notablog/2020/06/23/writing-reading-writing/", "https://ew.com/books/george-rr-martin-winds-of-winter-update/", "https://georgerrmartin.com/notablog/tag/the-winds-of-winter/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2020-12-11 | 0.0 | [["2020-12-11", 0.33], ["2020-12-11", 0.365], 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0.05], ["2021-11-29", 0.045], ["2021-12-01", 0.045], ["2021-12-03", 0.05], ["2021-12-03", 0.045], ["2021-12-03", 0.045], ["2021-12-03", 0.035], ["2021-12-04", 0.03], ["2021-12-05", 0.025], ["2021-12-05", 0.025], ["2021-12-07", 0.025], ["2021-12-07", 0.025], ["2021-12-09", 0.02], ["2021-12-10", 0.02], ["2021-12-12", 0.015], ["2021-12-12", 0.015], ["2021-12-14", 0.01], ["2021-12-14", 0.01], ["2021-12-16", 0.01], ["2021-12-16", 0.01], ["2021-12-16", 0.005], ["2021-12-17", 0.005], ["2021-12-20", 0.0], ["2021-12-20", 0.0], ["2021-12-21", 0.0], ["2021-12-22", 0.0], ["2021-12-23", 0.0], ["2021-12-25", 0.0], ["2021-12-25", 0.0], ["2021-12-27", 0.0], ["2021-12-28", 0.0], ["2021-12-29", 0.0], ["2021-12-31", 0.0], ["2021-12-31", 0.0], ["2021-12-31", 0.0], ["2022-01-01", 0.0], ["2022-01-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1864 | True |
2021-07-01 | Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the European Union delay and/or relax the implementation and/or enforcement of any of its CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and/or new light commercial vehicles? | binary |
<div>Due to impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the auto industry in the EU is seeking relief from CO2 emission performance standards regulations (<a href="https://www.acea.be/news/article/covid-19-auto-sector-letter-to-von-der-leyen" target="_blank">European Automobile Manufacturers Association</a>, <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/regulation_en" target="_blank">Europa</a>, <a href="https://www.electrive.com/2020/03/30/european-car-industry-lobby-groups-question-co2-targets-in-the-face-of-covid19/" target="_blank">Electrive</a>). For more information on EU CO2 emission performance standards, see <a href="https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32019R0631" target="_blank">REGULATION (EU) 2019/631</a>, particularly Article 4 and the annexes. The date a change would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.</div><div><br></div><div>This question is the longer-term companion of question <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1619-before-1-january-2021-will-the-european-union-delay-and-or-relax-the-implementation-and-or-enforcement-of-any-of-its-co2-emission-performance-standards-for-new-passenger-cars-and-or-new-light-commercial-vehicles" target="_blank">#1619</a>. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.</div><div>
<p></p>
<p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p>
<p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>
| 2023-01-18 | gjopen | ["https://teknikensvarld.se/nyheter/miljo-och-teknik/eu-hotar-med-tuffare-regler-for-laddhybrider-redan-2025/", "https://ec.europa.eu/clima/news/average-co2-emissions-new-light-duty-vehicles-registered-europe-2019_en", "https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/regulation_en", "https://www.euractiv.com/section/electric-cars/news/hybrid-electric-cars-should-lose-green-status-campaigners-say/", "https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=CELEX:52020DC0690&from=EN"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2020-05-15 | 0.0 | [["2020-05-15", 0.0], ["2020-05-15", 0.065], ["2020-05-15", 0.0], ["2020-05-15", 0.065], ["2020-05-15", 0.13], ["2020-05-15", 0.065], ["2020-05-15", 0.1], ["2020-05-15", 0.055], ["2020-05-15", 0.1], ["2020-05-16", 0.115], ["2020-05-16", 0.175], ["2020-05-16", 0.285], ["2020-05-16", 0.375], ["2020-05-16", 0.285], ["2020-05-16", 0.185], ["2020-05-17", 0.185], ["2020-05-17", 0.185], ["2020-05-17", 0.185], ["2020-05-17", 0.185], ["2020-05-17", 0.15], ["2020-05-17", 0.125], ["2020-05-17", 0.1], ["2020-05-18", 0.075], ["2020-05-18", 0.05], ["2020-05-18", 0.05], ["2020-05-18", 0.05], ["2020-05-18", 0.075], ["2020-05-18", 0.1], ["2020-05-19", 0.15], ["2020-05-19", 0.05], ["2020-05-19", 0.05], ["2020-05-19", 0.05], ["2020-05-19", 0.05], ["2020-05-20", 0.05], ["2020-05-20", 0.05], ["2020-05-20", 0.05], ["2020-05-20", 0.05], ["2020-05-21", 0.1], ["2020-05-22", 0.1], ["2020-05-23", 0.1], ["2020-05-24", 0.1], ["2020-05-24", 0.125], ["2020-05-24", 0.075], ["2020-05-25", 0.04], ["2020-05-25", 0.05], ["2020-05-26", 0.03], ["2020-05-27", 0.03], ["2020-05-29", 0.04], ["2020-05-29", 0.04], ["2020-05-29", 0.075], ["2020-05-30", 0.1], ["2020-05-30", 0.09], ["2020-05-31", 0.05], ["2020-06-01", 0.05], ["2020-06-01", 0.04], ["2020-06-02", 0.03], ["2020-06-02", 0.03], ["2020-06-03", 0.03], ["2020-06-04", 0.025], ["2020-06-04", 0.025], ["2020-06-07", 0.025], ["2020-06-07", 0.025], ["2020-06-07", 0.025], ["2020-06-09", 0.025], ["2020-06-10", 0.03], ["2020-06-11", 0.02], ["2020-06-11", 0.02], ["2020-06-12", 0.02], ["2020-06-12", 0.035], ["2020-06-12", 0.035], ["2020-06-12", 0.05], ["2020-06-13", 0.05], ["2020-06-13", 0.05], ["2020-06-13", 0.055], ["2020-06-14", 0.08], ["2020-06-14", 0.08], ["2020-06-15", 0.06], ["2020-06-16", 0.02], ["2020-06-16", 0.04], ["2020-06-16", 0.02], ["2020-06-16", 0.02], ["2020-06-17", 0.02], ["2020-06-18", 0.04], ["2020-06-18", 0.04], ["2020-06-20", 0.035], ["2020-06-23", 0.055], ["2020-06-25", 0.055], ["2020-06-28", 0.055], ["2020-06-29", 0.055], ["2020-06-30", 0.055], ["2020-06-30", 0.035], ["2020-06-30", 0.035], ["2020-07-04", 0.015], ["2020-07-08", 0.03], ["2020-07-09", 0.03], ["2020-07-10", 0.03], ["2020-07-13", 0.01], ["2020-07-15", 0.01], ["2020-07-15", 0.01], ["2020-07-22", 0.01], ["2020-07-22", 0.01], ["2020-07-22", 0.01], ["2020-07-22", 0.01], ["2020-07-24", 0.01], ["2020-07-29", 0.01], ["2020-07-31", 0.01], ["2020-07-31", 0.015], ["2020-08-01", 0.015], ["2020-08-02", 0.015], ["2020-08-03", 0.015], ["2020-08-08", 0.015], ["2020-08-09", 0.015], ["2020-08-15", 0.02], ["2020-08-16", 0.02], ["2020-08-16", 0.03], ["2020-08-18", 0.03], ["2020-08-18", 0.03], ["2020-08-22", 0.03], ["2020-08-23", 0.03], ["2020-08-29", 0.03], ["2020-08-31", 0.03], ["2020-08-31", 0.04], ["2020-09-03", 0.035], ["2020-09-04", 0.035], ["2020-09-04", 0.04], ["2020-09-06", 0.04], ["2020-09-06", 0.04], ["2020-09-09", 0.04], ["2020-09-21", 0.03], ["2020-09-21", 0.03], ["2020-09-23", 0.03], ["2020-09-24", 0.03], ["2020-10-04", 0.03], ["2020-10-05", 0.03], ["2020-10-07", 0.03], ["2020-10-09", 0.03], ["2020-10-11", 0.03], ["2020-10-12", 0.03], ["2020-10-14", 0.03], ["2020-10-29", 0.03], ["2020-11-03", 0.03], ["2020-11-04", 0.03], ["2020-11-07", 0.03], ["2020-11-08", 0.03], ["2020-11-08", 0.03], ["2020-11-09", 0.03], ["2020-11-16", 0.03], ["2020-11-17", 0.03], ["2020-11-21", 0.03], ["2020-11-24", 0.03], ["2020-12-08", 0.03], ["2020-12-14", 0.03], ["2020-12-16", 0.03], ["2020-12-17", 0.03], ["2020-12-17", 0.03], ["2021-01-05", 0.03], ["2021-01-06", 0.03], ["2021-01-08", 0.03], ["2021-01-08", 0.03], ["2021-01-10", 0.03], ["2021-01-12", 0.03], ["2021-01-16", 0.025], ["2021-01-25", 0.025], ["2021-01-28", 0.03], ["2021-01-28", 0.03], ["2021-01-29", 0.03], ["2021-01-29", 0.025], ["2021-01-29", 0.025], ["2021-01-29", 0.025], ["2021-01-29", 0.03], ["2021-02-01", 0.03], ["2021-02-01", 0.03], ["2021-02-01", 0.03], ["2021-02-02", 0.02], ["2021-02-07", 0.02], ["2021-02-09", 0.02], ["2021-02-09", 0.02], ["2021-02-10", 0.02], ["2021-02-12", 0.02], ["2021-02-13", 0.02], ["2021-02-17", 0.015], ["2021-02-19", 0.015], ["2021-03-01", 0.015], ["2021-03-07", 0.015], ["2021-03-08", 0.015], ["2021-03-10", 0.015], ["2021-03-16", 0.015], ["2021-03-16", 0.015], ["2021-03-16", 0.015], ["2021-03-17", 0.015], ["2021-03-20", 0.015], ["2021-03-21", 0.015], ["2021-04-01", 0.015], ["2021-04-03", 0.015], ["2021-04-04", 0.02], ["2021-04-04", 0.02], ["2021-04-08", 0.02], ["2021-04-09", 0.02], ["2021-04-10", 0.02], ["2021-04-16", 0.02], ["2021-04-18", 0.02], ["2021-04-19", 0.01], ["2021-04-21", 0.01], ["2021-04-22", 0.01], ["2021-04-22", 0.01], ["2021-04-27", 0.01], ["2021-04-29", 0.01], ["2021-05-01", 0.015], ["2021-05-03", 0.01], ["2021-05-04", 0.01], ["2021-05-05", 0.01], ["2021-05-05", 0.01], ["2021-05-06", 0.01], ["2021-05-13", 0.01], ["2021-05-13", 0.01], ["2021-05-16", 0.01], ["2021-05-17", 0.01], ["2021-05-20", 0.01], ["2021-05-21", 0.01], ["2021-05-22", 0.01], ["2021-05-23", 0.01], ["2021-05-25", 0.01], ["2021-05-25", 0.01], ["2021-05-26", 0.01], ["2021-05-27", 0.01], ["2021-05-30", 0.01], ["2021-05-30", 0.01], ["2021-06-04", 0.01], ["2021-06-08", 0.005], ["2021-06-10", 0.01], ["2021-06-11", 0.01], ["2021-06-11", 0.01], ["2021-06-11", 0.01], ["2021-06-13", 0.01], ["2021-06-17", 0.005], ["2021-06-17", 0.005], ["2021-06-18", 0.005], ["2021-06-19", 0.01], ["2021-06-21", 0.01], ["2021-06-23", 0.01], ["2021-06-23", 0.0], ["2021-06-24", 0.0], ["2021-06-24", 0.0], ["2021-06-24", 0.0], ["2021-06-24", 0.0], ["2021-06-24", 0.0], ["2021-06-25", 0.0], ["2021-06-25", 0.0], ["2021-06-28", 0.0], ["2021-06-28", 0.0], ["2021-06-30", 0.0], ["2021-06-30", 0.0], ["2021-07-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1620 | True |
2021-08-01 | Before 1 August 2021, will legislation authorizing or enabling an extension or replacement of the CDC's nationwide eviction moratorium past 31 July 2021 become law? | binary |
<p>On 24 June 2021, the CDC extended its nationwide eviction moratorium through 31 July 2021 (<a href="https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s0624-eviction-moratorium.html" target="_blank">CDC</a>, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/06/24/1009828802/cdc-extends-eviction-moratorium-for-30-days" target="_blank">NPR</a>). On 29 June 2021, the Supreme Court, by a 5-4 vote, rejected a request for the moratorium to be blocked, with Justice Kavanaugh noting that he believes "clear and specific congressional authorization (via new legislation) would be necessary" for another extension (<a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/20pdf/20a169_4f15.pdf" target="_blank">US Supreme Court</a>, <a href="https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/560837-supreme-court-leaves-cdc-eviction-moratorium-intact" target="_blank">The Hill</a>). Legislation of nationwide applicability with exceptions would count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-08-02 | gjopen | ["https://www.npr.org/2021/06/24/1009828802/cdc-extends-eviction-moratorium-for-30-days", "https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s0624-eviction-moratorium.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/30/us/politics/eviction-moratorium-biden-congress.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage", "https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/supreme-court-leaves-eviction-ban-in-place-till-july-31-what-renters-should-know/", "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/07/29/biden-asks-congress-extend-eviction-moratorium-without-delay/5416922001/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2021-07-02 | 0.0 | [["2021-07-02", 0.0], ["2021-07-02", 0.5], ["2021-07-02", 0.0], ["2021-07-02", 0.0], ["2021-07-02", 0.005], ["2021-07-02", 0.01], ["2021-07-02", 0.34], ["2021-07-02", 0.01], ["2021-07-03", 0.01], ["2021-07-03", 0.01], ["2021-07-03", 0.01], ["2021-07-03", 0.01], ["2021-07-03", 0.02], ["2021-07-03", 0.03], ["2021-07-03", 0.02], ["2021-07-03", 0.02], ["2021-07-03", 0.03], ["2021-07-03", 0.03], ["2021-07-04", 0.04], ["2021-07-04", 0.03], ["2021-07-04", 0.02], ["2021-07-04", 0.02], ["2021-07-05", 0.03], ["2021-07-05", 0.02], ["2021-07-05", 0.01], ["2021-07-05", 0.01], ["2021-07-05", 0.01], ["2021-07-05", 0.01], ["2021-07-05", 0.03], ["2021-07-05", 0.01], ["2021-07-05", 0.01], ["2021-07-05", 0.01], ["2021-07-05", 0.01], ["2021-07-06", 0.01], ["2021-07-06", 0.01], ["2021-07-06", 0.01], ["2021-07-06", 0.01], ["2021-07-06", 0.0], ["2021-07-06", 0.0], ["2021-07-07", 0.0], ["2021-07-07", 0.0], ["2021-07-07", 0.005], ["2021-07-07", 0.005], ["2021-07-07", 0.01], ["2021-07-07", 0.01], ["2021-07-07", 0.01], ["2021-07-07", 0.025], ["2021-07-07", 0.03], ["2021-07-08", 0.035], ["2021-07-08", 0.02], ["2021-07-08", 0.02], ["2021-07-08", 0.035], ["2021-07-08", 0.045], ["2021-07-08", 0.05], ["2021-07-08", 0.05], ["2021-07-08", 0.05], ["2021-07-09", 0.05], ["2021-07-09", 0.05], ["2021-07-09", 0.05], ["2021-07-09", 0.05], ["2021-07-09", 0.05], ["2021-07-09", 0.05], ["2021-07-09", 0.05], ["2021-07-11", 0.05], ["2021-07-11", 0.05], ["2021-07-12", 0.05], ["2021-07-12", 0.05], ["2021-07-12", 0.05], ["2021-07-12", 0.05], ["2021-07-13", 0.05], ["2021-07-13", 0.05], ["2021-07-13", 0.05], ["2021-07-13", 0.05], ["2021-07-13", 0.05], ["2021-07-13", 0.05], ["2021-07-14", 0.05], ["2021-07-15", 0.05], ["2021-07-15", 0.05], ["2021-07-15", 0.05], ["2021-07-15", 0.045], ["2021-07-15", 0.05], ["2021-07-15", 0.05], ["2021-07-16", 0.05], ["2021-07-16", 0.05], ["2021-07-16", 0.05], ["2021-07-17", 0.04], ["2021-07-17", 0.04], ["2021-07-17", 0.045], ["2021-07-17", 0.045], ["2021-07-17", 0.035], ["2021-07-17", 0.03], ["2021-07-17", 0.03], ["2021-07-17", 0.03], ["2021-07-18", 0.02], ["2021-07-18", 0.02], ["2021-07-18", 0.02], ["2021-07-18", 0.02], ["2021-07-18", 0.02], ["2021-07-19", 0.02], ["2021-07-19", 0.02], ["2021-07-19", 0.02], ["2021-07-19", 0.02], ["2021-07-19", 0.02], ["2021-07-19", 0.02], ["2021-07-20", 0.02], ["2021-07-20", 0.02], ["2021-07-20", 0.02], ["2021-07-21", 0.02], ["2021-07-21", 0.02], ["2021-07-22", 0.02], ["2021-07-22", 0.02], ["2021-07-23", 0.02], ["2021-07-23", 0.02], ["2021-07-23", 0.015], ["2021-07-25", 0.01], ["2021-07-25", 0.01], ["2021-07-25", 0.01], ["2021-07-26", 0.01], ["2021-07-26", 0.01], ["2021-07-26", 0.005], ["2021-07-27", 0.0], ["2021-07-27", 0.0], ["2021-07-28", 0.0], ["2021-07-28", 0.0], ["2021-07-28", 0.0], ["2021-07-28", 0.0], ["2021-07-29", 0.0], ["2021-07-29", 0.0], ["2021-07-29", 0.0], ["2021-07-29", 0.0], ["2021-07-29", 0.0], ["2021-07-29", 0.0], ["2021-07-29", 0.0], ["2021-07-29", 0.0], ["2021-07-29", 0.0], ["2021-07-29", 0.0], ["2021-07-29", 0.0], ["2021-07-29", 0.0], ["2021-07-29", 0.0], ["2021-07-29", 0.0], ["2021-07-29", 0.0], ["2021-07-29", 0.0], ["2021-07-29", 0.0], ["2021-07-29", 0.0], ["2021-07-30", 0.0], ["2021-07-30", 0.0], ["2021-07-30", 0.0], ["2021-07-30", 0.0], ["2021-07-31", 0.0], ["2021-07-31", 0.0], ["2021-07-31", 0.0], ["2021-08-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2064 | True |
2022-08-20 | Will the UK or EU trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol before 20 August 2022? | binary |
<p>The Protocol is an agreement made during Brexit negotiations intended to avoid a "hard border" between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, in which Article 16 governs either party taking unilateral action (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-58790419" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/16/northern-ireland-protocol-uk-threatens-to-scrap-parts-of-brexit-deal.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/may/12/how-the-uk-may-try-to-override-the-northern-ireland-brexit-protocol" target="_blank">Guardian</a>). The question would close upon the UK or EU notifying the Joint Committee under the terms of Annex 7 of the Protocol (<a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/840230/Revised_Protocol_to_the_Withdrawal_Agreement.pdf" target="_blank">Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2022-08-21 | gjopen | ["https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/STATEMENT_22_3698", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_Protocol", "https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jun/27/boris-johnson-northern-ireland-protocol-bill-vote-brexit", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/07/truss-sunak-contest-leaves-brussels-pessimistic-about-relations-with-uk-brexit-eu", "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1008451/CCS207_CCS0721914902-005_Northern_Ireland_Protocol_Web_Accessible__1_.pdf", "https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-61750917", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1473317", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/14/uk-prompts-eu-backlash-over-plans-to-rip-up-northern-ireland-protocol.html", "https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-53724381", "https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/15/europe/eu-uk-legal-challenge-brexit-northern-ireland-protocol-intl/index.html", "https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-58790419", "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/northern-ireland-protocol-the-uks-solution"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2022-05-20 | 0.0 | [["2022-05-20", 0.0], ["2022-05-20", 0.025], ["2022-05-20", 0.02], ["2022-05-20", 0.265], ["2022-05-20", 0.222], ["2022-05-20", 0.21], ["2022-05-20", 0.22285714285714286], ["2022-05-20", 0.21375], ["2022-05-20", 0.19], ["2022-05-21", 0.251], ["2022-05-21", 0.25], ["2022-05-21", 0.264], ["2022-05-21", 0.259], ["2022-05-21", 0.159], ["2022-05-21", 0.159], ["2022-05-21", 0.153], ["2022-05-21", 0.153], ["2022-05-21", 0.138], ["2022-05-21", 0.108], ["2022-05-22", 0.098], ["2022-05-22", 0.098], ["2022-05-22", 0.02], ["2022-05-23", 0.095], ["2022-05-23", 0.04], ["2022-05-23", 0.073], ["2022-05-23", 0.073], ["2022-05-23", 0.093], ["2022-05-23", 0.098], ["2022-05-23", 0.09], ["2022-05-24", 0.095], ["2022-05-24", 0.102], ["2022-05-24", 0.112], ["2022-05-24", 0.109], ["2022-05-24", 0.109], ["2022-05-24", 0.142], ["2022-05-24", 0.122], ["2022-05-25", 0.11090909090909092], ["2022-05-25", 0.10181818181818182], ["2022-05-25", 0.09363636363636364], ["2022-05-25", 0.09363636363636364], ["2022-05-25", 0.08454545454545455], ["2022-05-25", 0.1375], ["2022-05-25", 0.1375], ["2022-05-26", 0.175], ["2022-05-26", 0.17692307692307693], ["2022-05-26", 0.17692307692307693], ["2022-05-26", 0.17384615384615384], ["2022-05-27", 0.16615384615384615], ["2022-05-27", 0.16615384615384615], ["2022-05-27", 0.15428571428571428], ["2022-05-28", 0.15428571428571428], ["2022-05-28", 0.13285714285714287], ["2022-05-28", 0.13357142857142856], ["2022-05-28", 0.13357142857142856], ["2022-05-28", 0.13357142857142856], ["2022-05-29", 0.12466666666666666], ["2022-05-29", 0.12466666666666666], ["2022-05-30", 0.128], ["2022-05-30", 0.12], ["2022-05-30", 0.12], ["2022-05-30", 0.07733333333333334], ["2022-05-30", 0.11], ["2022-05-30", 0.081875], ["2022-05-30", 0.109375], ["2022-05-31", 0.109375], ["2022-06-01", 0.109375], ["2022-06-01", 0.109375], ["2022-06-01", 0.090625], ["2022-06-01", 0.090625], ["2022-06-02", 0.08823529411764706], ["2022-06-02", 0.07823529411764706], ["2022-06-02", 0.07352941176470588], ["2022-06-02", 0.07352941176470588], ["2022-06-03", 0.07352941176470588], ["2022-06-03", 0.07058823529411765], ["2022-06-03", 0.07058823529411765], ["2022-06-03", 0.06666666666666667], ["2022-06-03", 0.06666666666666667], ["2022-06-04", 0.0661111111111111], ["2022-06-04", 0.0661111111111111], ["2022-06-04", 0.06388888888888888], ["2022-06-05", 0.06388888888888888], ["2022-06-05", 0.06388888888888888], ["2022-06-05", 0.06388888888888888], ["2022-06-06", 0.06388888888888888], ["2022-06-06", 0.06210526315789474], ["2022-06-06", 0.06210526315789474], ["2022-06-06", 0.06210526315789474], ["2022-06-06", 0.06210526315789474], ["2022-06-07", 0.06210526315789474], ["2022-06-07", 0.06210526315789474], ["2022-06-07", 0.06947368421052631], ["2022-06-07", 0.06947368421052631], ["2022-06-07", 0.0665], ["2022-06-08", 0.1165], ["2022-06-08", 0.1165], ["2022-06-08", 0.1165], ["2022-06-08", 0.1165], ["2022-06-09", 0.1165], ["2022-06-09", 0.112], ["2022-06-09", 0.112], ["2022-06-09", 0.112], ["2022-06-10", 0.10666666666666667], ["2022-06-10", 0.10666666666666667], ["2022-06-10", 0.10666666666666667], ["2022-06-11", 0.10666666666666667], ["2022-06-11", 0.10523809523809524], ["2022-06-11", 0.10142857142857142], ["2022-06-11", 0.10142857142857142], ["2022-06-11", 0.10142857142857142], ["2022-06-12", 0.10142857142857142], ["2022-06-12", 0.10142857142857142], ["2022-06-12", 0.09666666666666666], ["2022-06-12", 0.09666666666666666], ["2022-06-13", 0.09904761904761905], ["2022-06-13", 0.09952380952380953], ["2022-06-13", 0.09952380952380953], ["2022-06-13", 0.1019047619047619], ["2022-06-13", 0.08142857142857143], ["2022-06-13", 0.0719047619047619], ["2022-06-13", 0.07428571428571429], ["2022-06-13", 0.07428571428571429], ["2022-06-14", 0.08142857142857143], ["2022-06-14", 0.08428571428571428], ["2022-06-14", 0.08428571428571428], ["2022-06-14", 0.08428571428571428], ["2022-06-15", 0.08428571428571428], ["2022-06-15", 0.08714285714285715], ["2022-06-15", 0.08952380952380952], ["2022-06-15", 0.09], ["2022-06-15", 0.08954545454545454], ["2022-06-15", 0.08954545454545454], ["2022-06-15", 0.08954545454545454], ["2022-06-16", 0.08727272727272728], ["2022-06-16", 0.08727272727272728], ["2022-06-16", 0.08727272727272728], ["2022-06-17", 0.08727272727272728], ["2022-06-17", 0.08681818181818182], ["2022-06-17", 0.08681818181818182], ["2022-06-18", 0.08681818181818182], ["2022-06-18", 0.08636363636363636], ["2022-06-18", 0.08409090909090909], ["2022-06-19", 0.08409090909090909], ["2022-06-19", 0.08454545454545455], ["2022-06-20", 0.08454545454545455], ["2022-06-20", 0.08363636363636363], ["2022-06-20", 0.08363636363636363], ["2022-06-20", 0.09090909090909091], ["2022-06-20", 0.09090909090909091], ["2022-06-21", 0.09090909090909091], ["2022-06-21", 0.09090909090909091], ["2022-06-22", 0.09090909090909091], ["2022-06-22", 0.09090909090909091], ["2022-06-23", 0.09090909090909091], ["2022-06-23", 0.09090909090909091], ["2022-06-24", 0.09272727272727273], ["2022-06-24", 0.09272727272727273], ["2022-06-24", 0.09272727272727273], ["2022-06-24", 0.09227272727272727], ["2022-06-24", 0.09227272727272727], ["2022-06-25", 0.09], ["2022-06-25", 0.09], ["2022-06-25", 0.09], ["2022-06-26", 0.09], ["2022-06-26", 0.09], ["2022-06-27", 0.09], ["2022-06-27", 0.08545454545454545], ["2022-06-28", 0.08454545454545455], ["2022-06-28", 0.08454545454545455], ["2022-06-28", 0.08454545454545455], ["2022-06-28", 0.10136363636363636], ["2022-06-28", 0.09909090909090909], ["2022-06-29", 0.07772727272727273], ["2022-06-29", 0.07772727272727273], ["2022-06-29", 0.07772727272727273], ["2022-06-30", 0.07545454545454545], ["2022-06-30", 0.07545454545454545], ["2022-06-30", 0.075], ["2022-06-30", 0.07272727272727272], ["2022-06-30", 0.10608695652173913], ["2022-06-30", 0.10608695652173913], ["2022-07-01", 0.10391304347826087], ["2022-07-01", 0.10391304347826087], ["2022-07-01", 0.10434782608695652], ["2022-07-02", 0.10434782608695652], ["2022-07-02", 0.10434782608695652], ["2022-07-03", 0.10434782608695652], ["2022-07-03", 0.10434782608695652], ["2022-07-04", 0.10434782608695652], ["2022-07-04", 0.09782608695652174], ["2022-07-05", 0.09782608695652174], ["2022-07-05", 0.09416666666666666], ["2022-07-05", 0.09416666666666666], ["2022-07-05", 0.09416666666666666], ["2022-07-06", 0.09416666666666666], ["2022-07-06", 0.09416666666666666], ["2022-07-06", 0.09375], ["2022-07-07", 0.09], ["2022-07-07", 0.09], ["2022-07-07", 0.09], ["2022-07-08", 0.09], ["2022-07-08", 0.04833333333333333], ["2022-07-08", 0.04833333333333333], ["2022-07-08", 0.04833333333333333], ["2022-07-09", 0.04833333333333333], ["2022-07-10", 0.04833333333333333], ["2022-07-10", 0.04833333333333333], ["2022-07-10", 0.04833333333333333], ["2022-07-11", 0.04833333333333333], ["2022-07-11", 0.04833333333333333], ["2022-07-12", 0.04833333333333333], ["2022-07-12", 0.04833333333333333], ["2022-07-12", 0.04833333333333333], ["2022-07-12", 0.04833333333333333], ["2022-07-13", 0.04833333333333333], ["2022-07-13", 0.04833333333333333], ["2022-07-13", 0.0844], ["2022-07-13", 0.0504], ["2022-07-13", 0.0484], ["2022-07-13", 0.0484], ["2022-07-14", 0.0484], ["2022-07-14", 0.0484], ["2022-07-14", 0.0484], ["2022-07-15", 0.0484], ["2022-07-15", 0.0484], ["2022-07-15", 0.04846153846153846], ["2022-07-15", 0.04846153846153846], ["2022-07-16", 0.04846153846153846], ["2022-07-16", 0.04846153846153846], ["2022-07-16", 0.04846153846153846], ["2022-07-16", 0.04846153846153846], ["2022-07-16", 0.05692307692307692], ["2022-07-17", 0.05653846153846154], ["2022-07-17", 0.05653846153846154], ["2022-07-17", 0.05653846153846154], ["2022-07-17", 0.05653846153846154], ["2022-07-18", 0.05653846153846154], ["2022-07-18", 0.05653846153846154], ["2022-07-19", 0.05653846153846154], ["2022-07-19", 0.05615384615384615], ["2022-07-19", 0.05615384615384615], ["2022-07-19", 0.04961538461538462], ["2022-07-19", 0.04923076923076923], ["2022-07-19", 0.04923076923076923], ["2022-07-20", 0.04923076923076923], ["2022-07-20", 0.04923076923076923], ["2022-07-20", 0.04923076923076923], ["2022-07-20", 0.04923076923076923], ["2022-07-21", 0.04923076923076923], ["2022-07-21", 0.04923076923076923], ["2022-07-21", 0.04923076923076923], ["2022-07-22", 0.04923076923076923], ["2022-07-22", 0.04923076923076923], ["2022-07-22", 0.04923076923076923], ["2022-07-22", 0.047407407407407405], ["2022-07-23", 0.047407407407407405], ["2022-07-23", 0.047407407407407405], ["2022-07-24", 0.047407407407407405], ["2022-07-24", 0.047407407407407405], ["2022-07-25", 0.047407407407407405], ["2022-07-25", 0.047407407407407405], ["2022-07-25", 0.047407407407407405], ["2022-07-26", 0.04555555555555556], ["2022-07-26", 0.04555555555555556], ["2022-07-26", 0.04555555555555556], ["2022-07-26", 0.04555555555555556], ["2022-07-27", 0.04555555555555556], ["2022-07-27", 0.04555555555555556], ["2022-07-27", 0.04555555555555556], ["2022-07-28", 0.04555555555555556], ["2022-07-28", 0.04555555555555556], ["2022-07-29", 0.04555555555555556], ["2022-07-29", 0.04555555555555556], ["2022-07-30", 0.04555555555555556], ["2022-07-30", 0.04555555555555556], ["2022-07-31", 0.05], ["2022-07-31", 0.05], ["2022-07-31", 0.05], ["2022-07-31", 0.04964285714285714], ["2022-08-01", 0.04928571428571429], ["2022-08-01", 0.04928571428571429], ["2022-08-01", 0.04928571428571429], ["2022-08-01", 0.04928571428571429], ["2022-08-02", 0.04928571428571429], ["2022-08-02", 0.04928571428571429], ["2022-08-02", 0.04928571428571429], ["2022-08-03", 0.04928571428571429], ["2022-08-03", 0.04928571428571429], ["2022-08-03", 0.04928571428571429], ["2022-08-04", 0.04928571428571429], ["2022-08-04", 0.04928571428571429], ["2022-08-04", 0.04928571428571429], ["2022-08-05", 0.04928571428571429], ["2022-08-05", 0.05107142857142857], ["2022-08-05", 0.05107142857142857], ["2022-08-05", 0.05107142857142857], ["2022-08-06", 0.05107142857142857], ["2022-08-07", 0.04931034482758621], ["2022-08-07", 0.04931034482758621], ["2022-08-07", 0.04931034482758621], ["2022-08-08", 0.04931034482758621], ["2022-08-09", 0.04931034482758621], ["2022-08-10", 0.04766666666666667], ["2022-08-10", 0.04766666666666667], ["2022-08-11", 0.04766666666666667], ["2022-08-11", 0.04766666666666667], ["2022-08-12", 0.04766666666666667], ["2022-08-12", 0.04766666666666667], ["2022-08-13", 0.04766666666666667], ["2022-08-13", 0.04766666666666667], ["2022-08-13", 0.04766666666666667], ["2022-08-13", 0.04633333333333333], ["2022-08-13", 0.018333333333333333], ["2022-08-14", 0.018333333333333333], ["2022-08-15", 0.018333333333333333], ["2022-08-16", 0.018333333333333333], ["2022-08-16", 0.018333333333333333], ["2022-08-17", 0.018333333333333333], ["2022-08-17", 0.018333333333333333], ["2022-08-17", 0.018333333333333333], ["2022-08-18", 0.017741935483870968], ["2022-08-18", 0.017741935483870968], ["2022-08-19", 0.017419354838709676], ["2022-08-19", 0.017419354838709676], ["2022-08-19", 0.017419354838709676], ["2022-08-19", 0.0174], ["2022-08-20", 0.0174]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2395 | True |
2023-01-01 | Will there be a railroad union strike in the United States in 2022? | binary |
<p>Twelve labor unions and dozens of railroad companies have been negotiating for new collective bargaining agreements since 2019, and there is a threat of strikes unless agreements are reached (<a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/10/24/railroad-worker-possible-strike-sick-leave" target="_blank">Axios</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/government-and-politics-business-strikes-940da8fc519f8c526ca614e201d01216" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://raillaborfacts.org/bargaining-essentials/the-parties/" target="_blank">National Railway Labor Conference</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/20/threat-of-rail-strike-has-supply-chain-ramping-up-contingency-plans.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>). The earliest a strike could begin is November 2022 (<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/11/railroad-workers-rejection-contracts-strike-00061285" target="_blank">Politico</a>). For the purposes of this question, a strike need not include all railroad workers to count. The duration of a strike would be immaterial so long as the strike actually begins.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-01-01 | gjopen | ["https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/28/business/railroad-workers-strike-threat.html?campaign_id=2&emc=edit_th_20221028&instance_id=76015&nl=todaysheadlines&regi_id=77825025&segment_id=111441&user_id=dc6933c94fc82416d25dd297622374d1", "https://www.inddist.com/logistics/news/22552162/another-union-rejects-deal-with-nations-freight-railroads", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/23/with-unions-aligned-rail-strike-emergency-planning-timeline-is-clear.html", "https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1595844982102958080", "https://apnews.com/article/business-strikes-congress-government-and-politics-0ac69bd8a24bbfd74787d198d7140d01", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/interactive/2022/rail-strikes-history-1877-2022/", "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/sep/26/striketober-unions-strikes-us-october", "https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/17/business/railroads-say-strike-can-be-avoided/index.html", "https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/22/business/railroad-union-negotiations/index.html", "https://www.npr.org/2022/11/21/1137640529/railroads-freight-rail-unions-vote-contract-strike", "https://raillaborfacts.org/bargaining-essentials/history/", "https://apnews.com/article/business-economy-strikes-congress-government-and-politics-055609b54cfd5d21de0f42fccddff22b", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-says-his-administration-engaged-talks-avert-railroad-strike-2022-11-24/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=daily-briefing&utm_term=11-25-2022", "http://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/04/business/railroad-strike-labor-secretary-congress/index.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Rail_transportation_labor_disputes_in_the_United_States", "https://lacrossetribune.com/lifestyles/technology/potential-railroad-strike-delayed-until-early-december/article_bb90e980-090b-5c72-beb6-ea7c85f8d7ba.html#tracking-source=article-related-bottom", "https://wibc.com/142307/what-a-railroad-strike-might-mean-for-indiana/", "https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/3753508-biden-calls-on-congress-to-intervene-to-avert-rail-shutdown/?email=1adbaabcac06c4359d0f8573bc6e10790015660f&emaila=0a0c579776f0cfaf13a2bd3672253728&emailb=382fedba350e22dabbeb35cb10d1ff5d920641d1f042d216a0bbd4587734a396&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Biden%20rail", "https://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/16/business/international/canadian-pacific-railway-strike-may-affect-north-american-industries.html", "https://gcaptain.com/divided-u-s-rail-unions-raise-specter-of-strike/?subscriber=true&goal=0_f50174ef03-9e72173726-170102337&mc_cid=9e72173726&mc_eid=c74873c672", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Railway_Labor_Act", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/01/us/politics/senate-rail-strike.html"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2022-10-27 | 0.0 | [["2022-10-28", 0.1], ["2022-10-28", 0.075], ["2022-10-28", 0.05], ["2022-10-28", 0.0875], ["2022-10-28", 0.09], ["2022-10-28", 0.2417], ["2022-10-28", 0.2957], ["2022-10-28", 0.2588], ["2022-10-28", 0.2856], ["2022-10-29", 0.324], ["2022-10-29", 0.3173], ["2022-10-29", 0.3155], ["2022-10-29", 0.3164], ["2022-10-29", 0.3317], ["2022-10-29", 0.3262], ["2022-10-29", 0.3215], ["2022-10-29", 0.32], ["2022-10-29", 0.2987], ["2022-10-29", 0.298], ["2022-10-29", 0.2813], ["2022-10-29", 0.2647], ["2022-10-29", 0.2533], ["2022-10-29", 0.2442], ["2022-10-29", 0.232], ["2022-10-30", 0.2495], ["2022-10-30", 0.2505], ["2022-10-30", 0.2414], ["2022-10-30", 0.2591], ["2022-10-30", 0.2596], ["2022-10-30", 0.2592], ["2022-10-30", 0.2728], ["2022-10-30", 0.2748], ["2022-10-30", 0.2642], ["2022-10-31", 0.2665], ["2022-10-31", 0.2654], ["2022-10-31", 0.2646], 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0.2833], ["2022-11-14", 0.2667], ["2022-11-14", 0.25], ["2022-11-14", 0.2528], ["2022-11-14", 0.2472], ["2022-11-14", 0.2474], ["2022-11-15", 0.2437], ["2022-11-16", 0.2442], ["2022-11-16", 0.2421], ["2022-11-16", 0.2368], ["2022-11-16", 0.2237], ["2022-11-17", 0.2158], ["2022-11-18", 0.2195], ["2022-11-19", 0.2153], ["2022-11-19", 0.2179], ["2022-11-19", 0.2363], ["2022-11-19", 0.2337], ["2022-11-19", 0.2337], ["2022-11-20", 0.2521], ["2022-11-20", 0.2574], ["2022-11-21", 0.2547], ["2022-11-21", 0.2574], ["2022-11-22", 0.2626], ["2022-11-22", 0.2558], ["2022-11-22", 0.2495], ["2022-11-22", 0.248], ["2022-11-22", 0.2505], ["2022-11-23", 0.254], ["2022-11-23", 0.253], ["2022-11-23", 0.2505], ["2022-11-23", 0.251], ["2022-11-23", 0.2525], ["2022-11-23", 0.253], ["2022-11-23", 0.2525], ["2022-11-23", 0.253], ["2022-11-24", 0.26], ["2022-11-24", 0.259], ["2022-11-25", 0.2575], ["2022-11-25", 0.2225], ["2022-11-25", 0.2215], ["2022-11-25", 0.2205], ["2022-11-25", 0.218], ["2022-11-25", 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0.0705], ["2022-12-04", 0.0682], ["2022-12-04", 0.0686], ["2022-12-05", 0.0664], ["2022-12-06", 0.055], ["2022-12-06", 0.0323], ["2022-12-07", 0.0314], ["2022-12-08", 0.0309], ["2022-12-10", 0.0309], ["2022-12-10", 0.0059], ["2022-12-11", 0.0091], ["2022-12-12", 0.0091], ["2022-12-13", 0.0091], ["2022-12-13", 0.0086], ["2022-12-13", 0.0082], ["2022-12-13", 0.0078], ["2022-12-15", 0.0078], ["2022-12-15", 0.0078], ["2022-12-17", 0.0083], ["2022-12-18", 0.0083], ["2022-12-18", 0.0083], ["2022-12-19", 0.0079], ["2022-12-19", 0.0079], ["2022-12-23", 0.0079], ["2022-12-24", 0.0075], ["2022-12-26", 0.0442], ["2022-12-26", 0.0442], ["2022-12-26", 0.0446], ["2022-12-27", 0.0113], ["2022-12-27", 0.0113], ["2022-12-29", 0.0108], ["2022-12-29", 0.0108], ["2022-12-30", 0.0104], ["2023-01-01", 0.0104]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2598 | True |
2021-04-01 | Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021? | binary |
<p>Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea (<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/" target="_blank">Center for Strategic and International Studies</a>, <a href="https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea" target="_blank">Council on Foreign Relations</a>, <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/" target="_blank">Diplomat</a>). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-04-01 | gjopen | ["https://www.manilatimes.net/2021/03/22/news/200-chinese-ships-mass-at-west-ph-sea-reef/854085/", "https://news.abs-cbn.com/overseas/03/28/21/china-announces-further-military-exercises-in-disputed-south-china-sea", "https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/09/asia/us-navy-two-aircraft-carriers-south-china-sea-ml/index.html", "http://www.mcivortimes.com.au/world/2021/03/10/3662533/xi-tells-military-to-be-combat-ready", "https://chinapower.csis.org/maritime-forces-destabilizing-asia/", "https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/ziliao_665539/3602_665543/3604_665547/t18034.shtml", "https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict%02tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea", "https://thediplomat.com/2018/12/brunei-between-big-powers-managing-us-china-rivalry-in-asia/", "https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/commentary/us-china-singapore-trade-war-impact-businesses-growth-11820864", "https://www.cfr.org/report/conflicts-watch-2020", "https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/nation/781078/afp-to-deploy-more-naval-assets-to-wps-amid-chinese-presence-at-julian-felipe-reef/story/", "https://amti.csis.org/beijing-bolsters-the-role-of-the-china-coast-guard/", "https://www.reuters.com/article/indonesia-china/update-1-china-to-import-more-indonesian-products-to-balanced-trade-idUSL1N2JO0SZ", "https://www.eria.org/ASEAN_at_50_4A.9_Zhang_and_Wang_final.pdf", "https://reut.rs/3c7MsyE", "https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/03/29/21/australia-concerned-over-destabilizing-actions-in-south-china-sea-envoy", "https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/03/24/21/think-tank-urges-china-to-withdraw-militia-fleet-from-ph-waters-warns-of-global-security-risks", "https://theaseanpost.com/article/scs-incursion-philippine-air-force-deployed", "https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2021/02/17/malaysia-us-ties-expected-to-remain-strong-under-bidens-administration-say/1950477", "https://asean.org/asean-china-reaffirm-commitment-strong-partnership/", "https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3127316/philippines-sends-fighter-aircraft-over-chinese-boats", "https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/south-china-sea-tensions-at-boiling-point%02as-beijing-tells-coast-guard-to-shoot-philippines-reacts/news%02story/d63d1c6e51eed9243382e9d2ff216f15", "https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/british%02and-canadian-warships-invade-south-china-sea-as-tensions-escalate-with-beijing/news%02story/41cc91af2af8b5ec3126712d09fef454", "https://www.dw.com/en/philippines-asks-chinese-flotilla-to-leave-disputed-reef/a-56943127", "https://www.state.gov/briefings/department-press-briefing-february-19-2021/#post-219386-CHINA"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2020-06-12 | 0.0 | [["2020-06-12", 0.3], ["2020-06-12", 0.14], ["2020-06-12", 0.15], ["2020-06-12", 0.055], ["2020-06-12", 0.055], ["2020-06-12", 0.04], ["2020-06-12", 0.04], ["2020-06-13", 0.03], ["2020-06-13", 0.03], ["2020-06-13", 0.04], ["2020-06-13", 0.03], ["2020-06-13", 0.05], ["2020-06-13", 0.05], ["2020-06-13", 0.06], ["2020-06-13", 0.05], ["2020-06-13", 0.075], ["2020-06-13", 0.1], ["2020-06-13", 0.1], ["2020-06-13", 0.095], ["2020-06-13", 0.1], ["2020-06-13", 0.1], ["2020-06-14", 0.1], ["2020-06-14", 0.05], ["2020-06-14", 0.09], ["2020-06-14", 0.05], 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2021-11-20 | Will at least 3.5 million people in New Zealand be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 before 30 December 2021? | binary |
<p>The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the NZ Ministry of Health for "second doses administered" (<a href="https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data" target="_blank">NZ Ministry of Health</a>). Data will be obtained at approximately 5pm ET on 30 December 2021 if the question is still open at that time. If the NZ Ministry of Health changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-11-21 | gjopen | ["https://abcnews.go.com/Health/millions-missing-2nd-vaccine-dose-rounds-cdc/story?id=77300383", "https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends_vacctrends-fully-cum", "https://cafebedouin.files.wordpress.com/2021/10/covid-nz-owid-vaccinations-2021-10-13.png", "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/covid-vaccinations-tracker.html", "https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_vaccination_in_New_Zealand#August_2021", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/22/world/australia/new-zealand-vaccination-gangs.html", "https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/126252497/covid19-nz-new-zealands-vaccine-rollout-explained-in-11-charts", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_vaccination_in_New_Zealand#Adverse_events", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1336463", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-worried-about-covid-19-vaccination-no-shows-2021-07-05/", "https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data#by_soh", "https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-reports-over-150000-covid-19-cases-one-day-amid-rio-backlog-2021-09-19/", "https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/09/covid-19-latest-vaccine-hesitancy-data-shows-79-percent-of-kiwis-keen-to-get-the-jab.html", "https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1334176", "https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-lifestyle-health-new-zealand-auckland-5f275717ab936669d1a330798128307a", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1342379", "https://www.cbs17.com/news/north-carolina-news/second-dose-skippers-cdc-says-8-percent-of-people-getting-first-shot-missed-the-next-one/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_vaccination_in_New_Zealand#Vaccine_tracker", "https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?facet=none&Metric=People+fully+vaccinated&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=USA", "https://www.stats.govt.nz/topics/population", "https://www.newsroom.co.nz/government-to-introduce-vaccine-passports", "https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1334367"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2021-06-25 | 1.0 | [["2021-06-25", 1.0], ["2021-06-25", 1.0], ["2021-06-26", 1.0], ["2021-06-26", 0.6], ["2021-06-26", 0.58], ["2021-06-26", 0.49], ["2021-06-26", 0.45], ["2021-06-26", 0.515], ["2021-06-26", 0.58], ["2021-06-26", 0.515], ["2021-06-26", 0.56], ["2021-06-26", 0.57], ["2021-06-27", 0.58], 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2020-10-01 | Before 1 October 2020, will North Korea announce that it has a new head of state? | binary |
<p>Speculation abounds as to the health and whereabouts of Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un (<a href="https://www.economist.com/asia/2020/05/02/north-koreas-dictator-has-disappeared" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/happen-north-korea-kim-jong-un-died-100746225.html" target="_blank">Yahoo</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/27/asia/kim-jong-un-health-letter-south-african-president-intl/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>). The naming of a new head of state in an acting capacity would count.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>
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["2020-09-30", 0.0], ["2020-10-01", 0.0], ["2020-10-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1607 | True |
2023-05-06 | Will Australia and Papua New Guinea (PNG) sign a bilateral defense treaty before 6 May 2023? | binary |
<p>After China and the Solomon Islands signed a security agreement in April 2022, Australia and other countries are rushing to secure closer relations with other Oceania countries (<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/30/the-china-solomons-security-deal-has-been-signed-time-to-move-on-from-megaphone-diplomacy" target="_blank">Guardian</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-61158146" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/china-us-solomon-islands-security-pact-australia-new-zealand-pacific" target="_blank">CBS News</a>). Australia and PNG have been discussing the development of a bilateral security treaty for years (<a href="https://www.dfat.gov.au/sites/default/files/papua-new-guinea-australia-comprehensive-strategic-and-economic-partnership-signed.pdf" target="_blank">Australia Dept. of Foreign Affairs and Trade - CSEP 2020</a>, <a href="https://www.dfat.gov.au/geo/papua-new-guinea/28th-papua-new-guinea-australia-ministerial-forum-joint-communique" target="_blank">Australia Dept. of Foreign Affairs and Trade - 28th Papua New Guinea-Australia Ministerial Forum Joint Communiqué 2021</a>). Ratification by the parties to the treaty would not be required for a "Yes" resolution.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 10 May 2022</span>: An example of a bilateral defense treaty is the one between Australia and the Solomon Islands (<a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/other/dfat/treaties/ATS/2018/14.html" target="_blank">Australasian Legal Information Institute</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-05-06 | gjopen | ["https://png.embassy.gov.au/pmsb/defence.html", "https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/media-release/29th-australia-papua-new-guinea-ministerial-forum-joint-communique", "https://www.rfa.org/english/news/pacific/papua-new-guinea-china-04032023003207.html", "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/papua-new-guinea-pm-says-he-can-form-govt-vote-counting-continues-2022-08-05/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Papua_New_Guinean_general_election", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/31/papua-new-guinea-hopes-to-have-australia-security-deal-signed-by-end-of-year", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/12/australia-finalising-new-security-pact-with-papua-new-guinea", "https://pina.com.fj/2022/05/25/china-seeks-pacific-islands-policing-security-cooperation-document/", "https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/23/australia-to-stand-with-pacific-islands-on-climate-crisis-and-respect-region-penny-wong-says", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-15/australia-s-top-diplomat-announces-third-pacific-trip-in-a-month", "https://pina.com.fj/2022/05/26/fiji-ag-seeks-to-play-down-concern-over-china-proposed-deal/", "https://www.dfat.gov.au/geo/papua-new-guinea/28th-papua-new-guinea-australia-ministerial-forum-joint-communique", "https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-06/png-pm-james-marape-orders-corruption-probe-into-png-ports/102056752", "https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/04/29/asia-pacific/politics-diplomacy-asia-pacific/papua-new-guinea-biden-visit/", "https://pina.com.fj/2022/05/26/john-rosso-sworn-in-as-png-deputy-pm/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/papua-new-guinea-leader-warns-opposition-not-play-politics-with-china-visit-2022-06-03/", "https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-20/png-prepares-to-sign-a-defence-cooperation-agreement-with-us/101871422", "https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/sep/07/australia-hails-new-chapter-in-timor-leste-relationship-as-leaders-sign-defence-pact", "https://pina.com.fj/2022/05/26/pm-albanese-says-australia-needs-to-step-up-engagement-with-pacific-islands-in-response-to-changed-environment-from-china/", "http://www.paclii.org/pits/en/bilateral/papua_new_guinea.shtml", "https://news.pngfacts.com/2022/07/png-pm-marape-meets-australian-pm.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/28/australias-foreign-minister-denounces-chinas-secret-security-deal-with-solomon-islands", "https://pina.com.fj/2022/05/26/five-things-we-learned-about-chinas-ambitions-for-the-pacific-from-the-leaked-deal/", "https://www.dfat.gov.au/geo/papua-new-guinea/development-assistance", "https://news.defence.gov.au/international/adf-kicks-election-support-png"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2022-05-06 | 0.0 | [["2022-05-06", 0.875], ["2022-05-06", 0.9133333333333333], ["2022-05-06", 0.602], ["2022-05-07", 0.4942857142857143], ["2022-05-07", 0.5411111111111111], ["2022-05-07", 0.58], ["2022-05-07", 0.496], ["2022-05-07", 0.529], ["2022-05-08", 0.606], ["2022-05-08", 0.649], ["2022-05-09", 0.589], ["2022-05-10", 0.516], ["2022-05-10", 0.557], ["2022-05-12", 0.57], ["2022-05-12", 0.584], ["2022-05-13", 0.6254545454545455], ["2022-05-16", 0.6318181818181818], ["2022-05-16", 0.6436363636363637], ["2022-05-20", 0.6418181818181818], 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0.1553], ["2023-04-24", 0.155], ["2023-04-24", 0.1548], ["2023-04-24", 0.1508], ["2023-04-24", 0.1503], ["2023-04-25", 0.1475], ["2023-04-26", 0.1622], ["2023-04-27", 0.1622], ["2023-04-28", 0.1615], ["2023-04-29", 0.1727], ["2023-04-29", 0.1727], ["2023-04-30", 0.1715], ["2023-05-01", 0.1715], ["2023-05-01", 0.1698], ["2023-05-02", 0.1663], ["2023-05-03", 0.1654], ["2023-05-05", 0.1517], ["2023-05-06", 0.1493], ["2023-05-06", 0.135]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2384 | True |
2022-02-01 | Will the UK or EU trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol before 1 February 2022? | binary |
<p>The Protocol is an agreement made during Brexit negotiations intended to avoid a "hard border" between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, in which Article 16 governs either party taking unilateral action (<a href="https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-what-is-the-northern-ireland-protocol-and-why-are-the-eu-and-uk-fighting-over-sausages-12327870" target="_blank">Sky News</a>, <a href="https://ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/article-16-of-the-northern-ireland-protocol/" target="_blank">UK in a Changing Europe</a>, <a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/northern-ireland-protocol-article-16-and-eu-vaccine-export-controls/" target="_blank">House of Commons Library</a>). The question would close upon the UK or EU notifying the Joint Committee under the terms of Section 1 or Section 4 of Annex 7 of the Protocol (<a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/840230/Revised_Protocol_to_the_Withdrawal_Agreement.pdf" target="_blank">Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland</a>, see ANNEX 7).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-02-01 | gjopen | ["https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-59198125", "https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-59256153", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1353321", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2411-what-will-be-the-closing-value-of-the-ice-us-dollar-index-on-16-september-2022", "https://www.euronews.com/2021/07/30/the-northern-ireland-protocol-is-stuck-in-a-stalemate-is-there-a-way-forward", "https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1456520115814535186", "https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-seems-set-invoke-emergency-measures-nireland-trade-irish-minister-2021-11-07/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3WioP042zLA", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/oct/04/david-frost-issues-veiled-treat-to-ditch-northern-ireland-protocol-brexit", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/09/liz-truss-willing-to-trigger-article-16-of-brexit-protocol-if-talks-falter", "https://twitter.com/FT/status/1440439285761462281", "https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jan/14/brexit-deal-northern-ireland-liz-truss-talks-eu", "https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-58790419", "https://www.politico.eu/article/dup-to-seek-snap-northern-ireland-election-if-brexit-protocol-isnt-axed/amp/", "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59256153", "https://bfff.co.uk/extreme-unveils-ground-breaking-ice-cream-innovation-for-2022/", "https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-59221691", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1323690", "https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uks-frost-says-eu-must-concede-more-brexit-2021-10-15/", "https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-59167024", "https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1469350565616496642", "https://bfff.co.uk/dawn-foods-launches-bakerys-first-non-sticky-donut-glaze/", "https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/ireland-brexit", "https://youtu.be/PD-MdiUm1_Y", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EnmGKxMJ3Ik"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2021-08-19 | 0.0 | [["2021-08-20", 0.6], ["2021-08-20", 0.775], ["2021-08-20", 0.8], ["2021-08-20", 0.7], ["2021-08-20", 0.875], ["2021-08-20", 0.8], ["2021-08-20", 0.7], ["2021-08-21", 0.6], ["2021-08-21", 0.45], ["2021-08-21", 0.3], ["2021-08-21", 0.35], ["2021-08-21", 0.35], ["2021-08-21", 0.4], ["2021-08-21", 0.36], ["2021-08-22", 0.32], ["2021-08-22", 0.33], ["2021-08-23", 0.32], ["2021-08-23", 0.31], ["2021-08-23", 0.31], ["2021-08-23", 0.235], ["2021-08-23", 0.25], ["2021-08-23", 0.25], ["2021-08-23", 0.26], ["2021-08-23", 0.27], ["2021-08-23", 0.285], ["2021-08-24", 0.285], ["2021-08-24", 0.25], ["2021-08-24", 0.25], ["2021-08-25", 0.2], ["2021-08-25", 0.15], ["2021-08-25", 0.25], ["2021-08-25", 0.2], ["2021-08-25", 0.185], ["2021-08-25", 0.185], ["2021-08-26", 0.185], ["2021-08-26", 0.185], ["2021-08-26", 0.19], ["2021-08-27", 0.145], ["2021-08-27", 0.14], ["2021-08-27", 0.125], ["2021-08-27", 0.1], ["2021-08-28", 0.1], 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0.1], ["2021-12-18", 0.1], ["2021-12-18", 0.1], ["2021-12-19", 0.09], ["2021-12-19", 0.08], ["2021-12-20", 0.08], ["2021-12-20", 0.08], ["2021-12-20", 0.08], ["2021-12-21", 0.08], ["2021-12-21", 0.08], ["2021-12-22", 0.08], ["2021-12-22", 0.075], ["2021-12-22", 0.075], ["2021-12-23", 0.07], ["2021-12-25", 0.07], ["2021-12-25", 0.06], ["2021-12-26", 0.05], ["2021-12-26", 0.05], ["2021-12-27", 0.05], ["2021-12-28", 0.05], ["2021-12-28", 0.05], ["2021-12-29", 0.05], ["2021-12-29", 0.05], ["2021-12-29", 0.05], ["2021-12-29", 0.05], ["2021-12-30", 0.05], ["2021-12-31", 0.05], ["2021-12-31", 0.05], ["2022-01-01", 0.05], ["2022-01-01", 0.05], ["2022-01-01", 0.05], ["2022-01-01", 0.05], ["2022-01-02", 0.05], ["2022-01-02", 0.045], ["2022-01-02", 0.04], ["2022-01-02", 0.04], ["2022-01-03", 0.04], ["2022-01-03", 0.04], ["2022-01-03", 0.04], ["2022-01-04", 0.04], ["2022-01-04", 0.04], ["2022-01-04", 0.04], ["2022-01-05", 0.04], ["2022-01-05", 0.04], ["2022-01-05", 0.04], ["2022-01-06", 0.035], ["2022-01-06", 0.035], ["2022-01-06", 0.025], ["2022-01-06", 0.02], ["2022-01-07", 0.02], ["2022-01-07", 0.02], ["2022-01-07", 0.02], ["2022-01-07", 0.02], ["2022-01-07", 0.015], ["2022-01-07", 0.01], ["2022-01-07", 0.01], ["2022-01-08", 0.01], ["2022-01-09", 0.01], ["2022-01-09", 0.01], ["2022-01-09", 0.01], ["2022-01-09", 0.01], ["2022-01-09", 0.01], ["2022-01-09", 0.01], ["2022-01-09", 0.015], ["2022-01-10", 0.015], ["2022-01-10", 0.015], ["2022-01-10", 0.01], ["2022-01-10", 0.015], ["2022-01-10", 0.01], ["2022-01-10", 0.01], ["2022-01-10", 0.01], ["2022-01-11", 0.01], ["2022-01-11", 0.01], ["2022-01-11", 0.01], ["2022-01-11", 0.01], ["2022-01-12", 0.01], ["2022-01-12", 0.01], ["2022-01-13", 0.01], ["2022-01-14", 0.01], ["2022-01-14", 0.01], ["2022-01-14", 0.01], ["2022-01-14", 0.01], ["2022-01-14", 0.01], ["2022-01-15", 0.01], ["2022-01-15", 0.01], ["2022-01-16", 0.01], ["2022-01-16", 0.01], ["2022-01-16", 0.01], ["2022-01-17", 0.01], ["2022-01-17", 0.01], ["2022-01-17", 0.01], ["2022-01-17", 0.01], ["2022-01-17", 0.01], ["2022-01-18", 0.01], ["2022-01-18", 0.01], ["2022-01-19", 0.01], ["2022-01-19", 0.01], ["2022-01-20", 0.01], ["2022-01-20", 0.01], ["2022-01-21", 0.01], ["2022-01-21", 0.01], ["2022-01-22", 0.01], ["2022-01-22", 0.01], ["2022-01-23", 0.01], ["2022-01-23", 0.01], ["2022-01-24", 0.01], ["2022-01-24", 0.01], ["2022-01-24", 0.01], ["2022-01-25", 0.01], ["2022-01-25", 0.01], ["2022-01-25", 0.01], ["2022-01-25", 0.01], ["2022-01-25", 0.01], ["2022-01-25", 0.01], ["2022-01-25", 0.005], ["2022-01-25", 0.0], ["2022-01-25", 0.0], ["2022-01-25", 0.0], ["2022-01-25", 0.0], ["2022-01-25", 0.0], ["2022-01-25", 0.0], ["2022-01-25", 0.0], ["2022-01-25", 0.0], ["2022-01-25", 0.0], ["2022-01-26", 0.0], ["2022-01-26", 0.0], ["2022-01-26", 0.0], ["2022-01-26", 0.0], ["2022-01-26", 0.0], ["2022-01-27", 0.0], ["2022-01-27", 0.0], ["2022-01-27", 0.0], ["2022-01-27", 0.0], ["2022-01-27", 0.0], ["2022-01-27", 0.0], ["2022-01-27", 0.0], ["2022-01-28", 0.0], ["2022-01-29", 0.0], ["2022-01-29", 0.0], ["2022-01-29", 0.0], ["2022-01-30", 0.0], ["2022-01-30", 0.0], ["2022-01-30", 0.0], ["2022-01-31", 0.0], ["2022-01-31", 0.0], ["2022-02-01", 0.0], ["2022-02-01", 0.0], ["2022-02-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2103 | True |
2023-05-30 | Will the New Democratic Party win a majority of seats in the 2023 Alberta Legislative Assembly elections? | binary |
Alberta voters are scheduled to vote on 29 May 2023 in what polls show is a tight race for control of the legislature amid widespread wildfires in the Canadian province (<a href="https://338canada.com/alberta/#som" target="_blank">388Canada</a>, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/ucp-ndp-campaigns-underway-weeks-before-official-writ-drop-1.6813628" target="_blank">CBC</a>, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/elections-alberta-monitoring-wildfires-for-possible-election-delay-1.6839283" target="_blank">CBC</a>). If the election date is postponed in a constituency or constituencies, the closing date will be extended to accommodate the delayed dates in case the outcome of the question is dependent on their results.<p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-05-30 | gjopen | ["https://abacusdata.ca/alberta-politics-ndp-take-lead/", "https://www.elections.ab.ca/resources/statistics-research/elector-counts/", "https://twitter.com/338canada/status/1662826107949703170?s=46&t=T06RhYXyWXI7A7ETR5zqNw", "https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/polling-shows-most-competitive-election-as-alberta-campaigns-wrap-second-week-1.6397693", "https://albertapolitics.ca/2023/05/new-poll-by-abacus-data-shows-alberta-ndp-breaking-ahead-of-ucp-into-winning-territory/", "https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/alberta-election-remains-close-contest", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Alberta_general_election#Opinion_polling", "https://338canada.com/alberta/", "https://angusreid.org/alberta-election-votes-danielle-smith-ucp-rachel-notley-ndp-calgary-polls/", "https://www.elections.ab.ca/resources/maps/#pdfmaps", "https://www.thewrit.ca/p/the-weekly-writ-for-may-3-difficult", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Fort_McMurray_wildfire", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Alberta_general_election#Background", "https://calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/braid-debate-danielle-smith-rachel-notley-no-clear-winner/wcm/f206e0fd-80e4-425b-8801-ad98e72b73fc/amp/", "https://abacusdata.ca/alberta-politics-it-is-tied/", "https://338canada.com/alberta/districts.htm", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta#Demographics", "https://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/poll-ndp-ahead-calgary-battleground", "https://twitter.com/338canada/status/1662826107949703170"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2023-05-12 | 0.0 | [["2023-05-13", 0.98], ["2023-05-13", 0.99], ["2023-05-13", 0.7267], ["2023-05-13", 0.795], ["2023-05-13", 0.7925], ["2023-05-13", 0.79], ["2023-05-13", 0.672], ["2023-05-14", 0.65], ["2023-05-14", 0.6571], ["2023-05-14", 0.575], ["2023-05-15", 0.5611], ["2023-05-15", 0.553], ["2023-05-15", 0.555], ["2023-05-15", 0.554], ["2023-05-15", 0.5945], ["2023-05-15", 0.5575], ["2023-05-15", 0.5331], ["2023-05-15", 0.5164], ["2023-05-16", 0.4442], ["2023-05-17", 0.465], ["2023-05-17", 0.4523], ["2023-05-17", 0.4562], ["2023-05-17", 0.4546], ["2023-05-17", 0.42], ["2023-05-18", 0.455], ["2023-05-18", 0.4391], ["2023-05-19", 0.484], ["2023-05-19", 0.492], ["2023-05-19", 0.503], ["2023-05-20", 0.458], ["2023-05-20", 0.478], ["2023-05-21", 0.476], ["2023-05-21", 0.479], ["2023-05-22", 0.379], ["2023-05-22", 0.373], ["2023-05-22", 0.439], ["2023-05-23", 0.428], ["2023-05-23", 0.424], ["2023-05-23", 0.418], ["2023-05-24", 0.318], ["2023-05-25", 0.313], ["2023-05-26", 0.303], ["2023-05-26", 0.303], ["2023-05-27", 0.278], ["2023-05-27", 0.268], ["2023-05-28", 0.258], ["2023-05-29", 0.279], ["2023-05-29", 0.276], ["2023-05-29", 0.271], ["2023-05-30", 0.271]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2883 | True |
2022-03-25 | Will employees at Amazon's Bessemer, Alabama, warehouse vote in the affirmative to unionize in their next scheduled election? | binary |
<p>In early January, the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) announced a new unionization vote for workers at an Amazon warehouse in Alabama, with ballots due by 25 March 2022 and counting scheduled for 28 March 2022 (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/11/amazon-union-election-in-alabama-to-begin-in-february.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2022/1/11/22878457/amazon-bessemer-alabama-union-election-redo-february-fourth" target="_blank">The Verge</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.<br></span></p><p></p><hr><p>After another review of the particulars of this question and speaking with an official at the NLRB's Region 10 office, we have concluded that the question should be resolved with the vote totals announced for the March 2022 election. Therefore, the question closed "No" with a closing date of 25 March 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2022-12-30 | gjopen | ["https://www.wbrc.com/2022/02/22/rwdsu-filing-unfair-labor-practice-charges-against-amazon-during-re-run-election/", "https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/feb/15/amazon-union-vote-workers-prepare", "https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-expected-to-win-union-vote-in-bessemer-warehouse-again-2022-3?r=US&IR=T", "https://www.npr.org/2022/03/31/1090123017/do-over-union-election-at-amazons-bessemer-warehouse-is-too-close-to-call", "https://ips-dc.org/press-release-amazon-union-support-jefferson-county/", "https://twitter.com/aldotcom/status/1496669583624843266", "https://www.ft.com/content/29da55af-4c1a-4237-8227-bd02c585f1c9", "https://www.nlrb.gov/case/10-RC-269250", "https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/carolineodonovan/why-alabama-amazon-workers-vote-against-unionizing", "https://prospect.org/labor/in-bessemer-and-the-south-black-workers-hold-the-key/", "https://www.al.com/business/2022/02/labor-unions-gather-in-bessemer-for-rally-ahead-of-amazon-vote.html", "https://www.bls.gov/regions/southeast/news-release/occupationalemploymentandwages_birmingham.htm", "https://www.npr.org/2022/02/17/1080689396/amazon-labor-push-escalates-as-workers-at-new-york-warehouse-win-a-union-vote", "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/union2.pdf", "https://therealnews.com/one-year-after-the-failed-amazon-union-drive-workers-in-bessemer-are-voting-a-second-time", "https://www.rwdsu.info/precedent_setting_ulp_charges_against_amazon", "https://www.theverge.com/2022/3/2/22959234/amazon-union-staten-island-ldj5-election-drive-nlrb-approval-go-ahead", "https://twitter.com/BAmazonUnion", "https://www.npr.org/2022/02/04/1077089349/amazon-union-vote-alabama", "https://trib.al/EbetDs1", "https://www.unionstats.com/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/03/03/amazon-staten-island-union/", "https://www.alreporter.com/2022/02/24/poll-nearly-two-thirds-of-jefferson-county-respondents-support-union-efforts-at-bessemer-amazon/", "https://www.aldailynews.com/amazon-workers-try-new-tactics-to-unionize-in-alabama/", "https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/union-says-amazon-continues-interfere-with-election-alabama-warehouse-2022-02-22/;"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2022-01-14 | 0.0 | [["2022-01-14", 0.5], ["2022-01-14", 0.4], ["2022-01-14", 0.3], ["2022-01-14", 0.4], ["2022-01-14", 0.3], ["2022-01-14", 0.3], ["2022-01-14", 0.3], ["2022-01-14", 0.3], ["2022-01-14", 0.3], ["2022-01-15", 0.3], ["2022-01-15", 0.3], ["2022-01-15", 0.275], ["2022-01-15", 0.275], ["2022-01-15", 0.25], ["2022-01-15", 0.235], ["2022-01-15", 0.25], ["2022-01-15", 0.235], ["2022-01-15", 0.22], ["2022-01-15", 0.21], ["2022-01-15", 0.2], ["2022-01-15", 0.21], ["2022-01-15", 0.2], ["2022-01-16", 0.2], ["2022-01-16", 0.15], ["2022-01-16", 0.1], ["2022-01-16", 0.1], ["2022-01-16", 0.1], ["2022-01-16", 0.1], ["2022-01-16", 0.1], ["2022-01-16", 0.1], ["2022-01-16", 0.1], ["2022-01-16", 0.1], ["2022-01-16", 0.1], ["2022-01-16", 0.1], ["2022-01-16", 0.1], ["2022-01-16", 0.1], ["2022-01-16", 0.1], ["2022-01-16", 0.1], ["2022-01-16", 0.1], ["2022-01-17", 0.1], ["2022-01-17", 0.1], ["2022-01-17", 0.1], ["2022-01-17", 0.1], ["2022-01-17", 0.1], ["2022-01-17", 0.1], ["2022-01-17", 0.1], ["2022-01-17", 0.1], ["2022-01-17", 0.1], ["2022-01-17", 0.1], ["2022-01-17", 0.1], ["2022-01-17", 0.1], ["2022-01-17", 0.1], ["2022-01-17", 0.1], ["2022-01-17", 0.1], ["2022-01-18", 0.1], ["2022-01-18", 0.1], ["2022-01-18", 0.1], ["2022-01-18", 0.1], ["2022-01-18", 0.1], ["2022-01-18", 0.1], ["2022-01-18", 0.105], ["2022-01-18", 0.105], ["2022-01-19", 0.11], ["2022-01-19", 0.115], ["2022-01-19", 0.12], ["2022-01-19", 0.12], ["2022-01-19", 0.115], ["2022-01-19", 0.12], ["2022-01-19", 0.15], ["2022-01-20", 0.15], ["2022-01-20", 0.15], ["2022-01-20", 0.15], ["2022-01-20", 0.15], ["2022-01-20", 0.145], ["2022-01-20", 0.145], ["2022-01-20", 0.15], ["2022-01-20", 0.15], ["2022-01-20", 0.15], ["2022-01-21", 0.15], ["2022-01-21", 0.14], ["2022-01-21", 0.14], ["2022-01-21", 0.14], ["2022-01-21", 0.14], ["2022-01-21", 0.145], ["2022-01-21", 0.12], ["2022-01-21", 0.12], ["2022-01-21", 0.12], ["2022-01-21", 0.145], ["2022-01-22", 0.145], ["2022-01-22", 0.14], ["2022-01-22", 0.14], ["2022-01-22", 0.12], ["2022-01-22", 0.15], 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["2022-03-18", 0.05], ["2022-03-19", 0.05], ["2022-03-19", 0.05], ["2022-03-20", 0.05], ["2022-03-20", 0.05], ["2022-03-20", 0.04], ["2022-03-20", 0.04], ["2022-03-21", 0.04], ["2022-03-21", 0.05], ["2022-03-21", 0.05], ["2022-03-23", 0.05], ["2022-03-23", 0.05], ["2022-03-24", 0.05], ["2022-03-25", 0.05], ["2022-03-25", 0.05]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2245 | True |
2021-08-16 | Will the US fully evacuate or lose control of its embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan, before 1 December 2021? | binary |
<p>As US and NATO forces continue their withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Taliban is making gains in the country (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/12/us/politics/us-diplomats-afghanistan-taliban.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href="https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2021/07/08/biden-defends-afghanistan-pullout-as-taliban-gains-ground/" target="_blank">Military Times</a>, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/04/27/991260914/state-department-orders-departure-of-nonessential-personnel-from-kabul-embassy" target="_blank">NPR</a>). The safety of the US embassy is a concern (<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/02/taliban-us-embassy-kabul-497815" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/03/politics/us-evacuation-plans-afghanistan-embassy/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>). A lockdown alone would not count (<a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/06/17/1007805629/outbreak-of-over-100-covid-19-cases-sends-u-s-embassy-in-afghanistan-into-lockdo" target="_blank">NPR</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-08-16 | gjopen | ["https://twitter.com/kylieatwood/status/1426853588782010370", "https://af.usembassy.gov/security-alert-u-s-embassy-kabul-afghanistan-15/", "https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/08/16/afghanistan-history-taliban-collapse-504977", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/aug/15/afghanistan-taliban-close-in-on-kabul-as-last-government-stronghold-in-north-falls", "https://edition.cnn.com/2021/08/13/politics/afghanistan-embassy-72-scramble/index.html", "https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/15/politics/us-embassy-kabul-afghanistan/index.html", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/15/taliban-continues-advances-captures-key-city-of-jalalabad?fbclid=IwAR2eZGjRjWM7rpN90jIQz5lI2XX-da-nxaoP6CwIC01qgrKbYgEMRRM7iNk&sf148983915=1", "https://www.edge.org/event/a-short-course-in-superforecasting%E2%80%94philip-tetlock-an-edge-master-class", "https://twitter.com/kylieatwood/status/1426853588782010370?s=21", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0BVRhsqHE5M", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1321174", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=itgu-1SgkII", "https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9894781/Taliban-takes-Jalalabad-warns-cease-airstrikes-descend-Kabul.html", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHLKFSWzImk", "https://www.politico.com/news/2021/08/13/afghanistan-embassy-withdrawal-taliban-504444", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Qo3F-0keq8", "https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1427708407272857603", "https://apnews.com/article/lifestyle-joe-biden-middle-east-evacuations-kabul-8ec855b3f943dafe80d3d3ca6b0953f2", "https://www.npr.org/2021/08/15/1027806863/the-taliban-seize-jalalabad-cutting-off-kabul-to-the-east", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58219169", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58187410", "https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02684527.2016.1147164", "https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6324/481.abstract", "https://abcnews.go.com/US/afghanistans-collapse-us-intelligence-wrong/story?id=79470553", "https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-asia-58219963/page/2"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2021-07-16 | 1.0 | [["2021-07-16", 0.0], ["2021-07-16", 0.0], ["2021-07-16", 0.0], ["2021-07-16", 0.05], ["2021-07-16", 0.0], ["2021-07-16", 0.01], ["2021-07-16", 0.0], ["2021-07-16", 0.0], ["2021-07-16", 0.0], ["2021-07-16", 0.0], ["2021-07-17", 0.0], ["2021-07-17", 0.0], ["2021-07-17", 0.01], ["2021-07-17", 0.01], ["2021-07-17", 0.02], ["2021-07-17", 0.035], ["2021-07-17", 0.02], ["2021-07-17", 0.035], ["2021-07-17", 0.02], ["2021-07-17", 0.035], ["2021-07-17", 0.02], ["2021-07-17", 0.015], ["2021-07-17", 0.015], ["2021-07-18", 0.015], ["2021-07-18", 0.02], ["2021-07-18", 0.035], ["2021-07-18", 0.05], ["2021-07-18", 0.05], ["2021-07-18", 0.05], ["2021-07-18", 0.045], ["2021-07-18", 0.045], ["2021-07-18", 0.05], ["2021-07-18", 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["2021-08-15", 0.99], ["2021-08-15", 0.99], ["2021-08-15", 0.99], ["2021-08-15", 0.99], ["2021-08-15", 0.99], ["2021-08-15", 0.99], ["2021-08-15", 0.99], ["2021-08-15", 0.995], ["2021-08-15", 1.0], ["2021-08-15", 1.0], ["2021-08-15", 1.0], ["2021-08-15", 1.0], ["2021-08-15", 1.0], ["2021-08-15", 1.0], ["2021-08-15", 1.0], ["2021-08-15", 1.0], ["2021-08-15", 1.0], ["2021-08-15", 1.0], ["2021-08-15", 1.0], ["2021-08-15", 1.0], ["2021-08-15", 1.0], ["2021-08-15", 1.0], ["2021-08-15", 1.0], ["2021-08-15", 1.0], ["2021-08-15", 1.0], ["2021-08-15", 1.0], ["2021-08-15", 1.0], ["2021-08-15", 1.0], ["2021-08-15", 1.0], ["2021-08-15", 1.0], ["2021-08-15", 1.0], ["2021-08-15", 1.0], ["2021-08-15", 1.0], ["2021-08-16", 1.0], ["2021-08-16", 1.0], ["2021-08-16", 1.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2071 | True |
2022-01-01 | Will Abiy Ahmed cease to be the prime minister of Ethiopia by way of extraconstitutional events before 1 January 2022? | binary |
<p>After success for his party in June 2021 elections, Prime Minister Ahmed is facing a variety of challenges in different regions of the country, including Tigray (<a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/07/10/1015019374/ethiopias-ruling-party-wins-national-election-in-landslide" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-43567007" target="_blank">BBC</a>). For the purposes of this question, "extraconstitutional" means events not conforming to the legal and political processes as laid out in the constitution of Ethiopia (e.g., a coup) (<a href="https://www.servat.unibe.ch/icl/et00000_.html" target="_blank">Ethiopian Constitution</a>). The death of Ahmed by any means would close the question "Yes." For the purposes of this question, the House of Federation's approval of allowing Ahmed to stay in office after his mandate was to expire due to the COVID-19 pandemic is considered to have been constitutional (<a href="https://www.ena.et/en/?p=15105" target="_blank">Ethiopian News Agency</a>, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/6/10/ethiopian-parliament-allows-pm-abiy-to-stay-in-office-beyond-term" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>). In the event the status of the prime minister is not immediately clear, e.g., see President Erdogan during the 2016 attempted coup in Turkey (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36815476" target="_blank">BBC</a>), the question would not be closed unless and until his being deposed is clear from credible open source reporting.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-01-01 | gjopen | ["https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/africaatlse/2021/07/06/ethiopias-election-is-a-coronation-of-abiy-ahmed-before-the-polls/", "https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/plough-and-kalashnikov-ethiopia-after-tigray", "https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/tigray-forces-withdraw-neighbouring-ethiopian-regions-spokesperson-2021-12-20/?taid=61c079a45bce710001f01bd3&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter", "https://www.africanews.com/2021/07/11/another-five-year-term-for-ethiopian-prime-minister-abiy-ahmed//", "https://www.universityworldnews.com/post.php?story=20200225074153900", "https://apnews.com/article/europe-middle-east-africa-turkey-kenya-ceaa44c20ad4eb32ba02af5ba9759aba", "https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20210702-a-regional-capital-falls-and-so-does-the-stature-of-ethiopia-s-leader-and-its-military", "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2021/7/28/with-a-new-mandate-abiy-can-usher-a-new-era-of-hope-in-ethiopia", "https://www.u-keiai.ac.jp/issn/menu/ronbun/no9/067.pdf", "https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/ethiopia-abiy-ahmed-landslide-victory-fractious-polity/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2021-07-30 | 0.0 | [["2021-07-30", 0.5], ["2021-07-30", 0.3], ["2021-07-30", 0.295], ["2021-07-30", 0.1], ["2021-07-31", 0.08], ["2021-07-31", 0.06], ["2021-07-31", 0.08], ["2021-07-31", 0.06], ["2021-07-31", 0.08], ["2021-07-31", 0.1], ["2021-07-31", 0.08], ["2021-07-31", 0.06], ["2021-08-01", 0.08], ["2021-08-01", 0.06], ["2021-08-01", 0.07], ["2021-08-01", 0.06], ["2021-08-02", 0.07], ["2021-08-02", 0.06], ["2021-08-02", 0.055], ["2021-08-02", 0.055], ["2021-08-02", 0.05], ["2021-08-02", 0.05], ["2021-08-02", 0.045], ["2021-08-02", 0.05], ["2021-08-02", 0.05], ["2021-08-02", 0.05], ["2021-08-03", 0.05], ["2021-08-03", 0.05], ["2021-08-03", 0.045], ["2021-08-03", 0.05], ["2021-08-03", 0.05], ["2021-08-03", 0.04], ["2021-08-03", 0.05], ["2021-08-04", 0.03], ["2021-08-04", 0.025], ["2021-08-04", 0.02], ["2021-08-04", 0.025], ["2021-08-05", 0.02], ["2021-08-05", 0.03], ["2021-08-06", 0.015], ["2021-08-06", 0.015], ["2021-08-06", 0.02], ["2021-08-07", 0.02], ["2021-08-07", 0.02], ["2021-08-07", 0.03], ["2021-08-09", 0.045], ["2021-08-09", 0.045], ["2021-08-09", 0.1], ["2021-08-09", 0.1], ["2021-08-09", 0.045], ["2021-08-10", 0.045], ["2021-08-12", 0.045], ["2021-08-14", 0.04], ["2021-08-14", 0.03], ["2021-08-14", 0.03], ["2021-08-15", 0.03], ["2021-08-15", 0.04], ["2021-08-15", 0.05], ["2021-08-17", 0.05], ["2021-08-18", 0.05], ["2021-08-18", 0.05], ["2021-08-18", 0.05], ["2021-08-19", 0.05], ["2021-08-21", 0.05], ["2021-08-22", 0.05], ["2021-08-23", 0.05], ["2021-08-23", 0.05], ["2021-08-24", 0.05], ["2021-08-25", 0.05], ["2021-08-25", 0.05], ["2021-08-30", 0.05], ["2021-08-31", 0.05], ["2021-08-31", 0.04], ["2021-09-02", 0.04], ["2021-09-03", 0.03], ["2021-09-04", 0.03], ["2021-09-05", 0.03], ["2021-09-05", 0.03], ["2021-09-07", 0.03], ["2021-09-10", 0.03], ["2021-09-11", 0.03], ["2021-09-11", 0.03], ["2021-09-11", 0.03], ["2021-09-13", 0.03], ["2021-09-17", 0.03], ["2021-09-19", 0.03], ["2021-09-19", 0.03], ["2021-09-20", 0.03], ["2021-09-21", 0.03], ["2021-09-26", 0.03], ["2021-09-27", 0.03], ["2021-09-27", 0.03], ["2021-09-27", 0.03], ["2021-09-27", 0.03], ["2021-09-28", 0.03], ["2021-09-29", 0.03], ["2021-09-30", 0.03], ["2021-10-02", 0.03], ["2021-10-08", 0.03], ["2021-10-09", 0.03], ["2021-10-11", 0.03], ["2021-10-15", 0.03], ["2021-10-16", 0.03], ["2021-10-30", 0.03], ["2021-11-06", 0.03], ["2021-11-07", 0.04], ["2021-11-08", 0.05], ["2021-11-10", 0.04], ["2021-11-10", 0.04], ["2021-11-13", 0.04], ["2021-11-17", 0.04], ["2021-11-18", 0.03], ["2021-11-18", 0.03], ["2021-11-19", 0.03], ["2021-11-21", 0.03], ["2021-11-21", 0.03], ["2021-11-22", 0.03], ["2021-11-23", 0.03], ["2021-11-25", 0.03], ["2021-11-26", 0.03], ["2021-11-29", 0.03], ["2021-11-30", 0.03], ["2021-11-30", 0.03], ["2021-12-02", 0.03], ["2021-12-03", 0.03], ["2021-12-04", 0.03], ["2021-12-04", 0.03], ["2021-12-09", 0.025], ["2021-12-09", 0.025], ["2021-12-10", 0.025], ["2021-12-11", 0.025], ["2021-12-12", 0.025], ["2021-12-12", 0.025], ["2021-12-13", 0.025], ["2021-12-16", 0.025], ["2021-12-16", 0.03], ["2021-12-18", 0.02], ["2021-12-20", 0.02], ["2021-12-20", 0.02], ["2021-12-21", 0.02], ["2021-12-21", 0.02], ["2021-12-21", 0.01], ["2021-12-22", 0.005], ["2021-12-22", 0.0], ["2021-12-22", 0.0], ["2021-12-23", 0.0], ["2021-12-25", 0.0], ["2021-12-25", 0.0], ["2021-12-26", 0.0], ["2021-12-27", 0.0], ["2021-12-28", 0.0], ["2021-12-29", 0.0], ["2021-12-29", 0.0], ["2021-12-30", 0.0], ["2021-12-30", 0.0], ["2022-01-01", 0.0], ["2022-01-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2087 | True |
2023-04-27 | Will real GDP for the European Union in the first quarter of 2023 be higher than it was in the fourth quarter of 2022? | binary |
<p>The EU was already facing a bevy of challenges to its economic health in the near term before bank failures in the US and collapse of Credit Suisse (<a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/ubs-buys-credit-suisse-in-rush-deal/" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/eu-economy-shows-positive-signs-but-challenges-remain-amid-ukraine-war/2829647" target="_blank">Anadolu Agency</a>). The question will be suspended on 27 April 2023 and the outcome determined using data from Eurostat for real GDP as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) upon the release of the preliminary flash estimate for the first quarter of 2023, called the "Preliminary Flash Estimate GDP - EU and euro area, Q1/2023," expected on 28 April 2023 (<a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CLVMEURSCAB1GQEU272020" target="_blank">FRED</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. FRED had not updated with the data released on 28 April 2023 (the report named in the question description), so the data directly from that report was used for resolution.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>
| 2023-05-02 | gjopen | ["https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/bookmark/4eef75c1-4ab8-4e39-865e-6301e3390d28?lang=en", "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/3888793/7242202/KS-TC-16-003-EN-N.pdf", "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/annex/ecb.projections202303_ecbstaff_annex.en.xlsx", "https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2023/October/weo-report?c=911,&s=NGDP_RPCH,NGDPD,PPPGDP,NGDPDPC,PPPPC,&sy=2023&ey=2023&ssm=0&scsm=1&scc=0&ssd=1&ssc=0&sic=0&sort=country&ds=.&br=1", "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/projections/html/ecb.projections202212_eurosystemstaff~6c1855c75b.en.html", "https://tradingeconomics.com/european-union/gdp-growth", "https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-performance-and-forecasts/economic-forecasts/winter-2023-economic-forecast-eu-economy-set-avoid-recession-headwinds-persist_en", "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/release-calendar?start=1684101600000&type=dayGridWeek", "https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2023-02/ip194_en_1.pdf", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/euro-zone-recovery-unexpectedly-gathering-pace-april-pmi-2023-04-21/", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/categories/32291?cid=32291&et=&ob=pv&od=desc&pageID=1&t=eu%3Beurope", "https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-surveillance-eu-economies/austria/economic-forecast-austria_en", "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/ecb_surveys/survey_of_professional_forecasters/html/table_hist_rgdp.en.html", "https://www2.now-casting.com/countries/euro-area/weekly-chart", "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2-28042023-ap", "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/projections/html/ecb.projections202303_ecbstaff~77c0227058.en.html#:~:text=Overall%2C%20real%20GDP%20is%20expected,from%20the%20December%202022%20projections", "https://janverkade.quarto.pub/real-gdp-for-the-european-union/", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CLVMEURSCAB1GQEU272020", "https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-forecast-and-surveys/economic-forecasts/winter-2023-economic-forecast-eu-economy-set-avoid-recession-headwinds-persist_en", "https://1drv.ms/i/s!AsesATuQvkNl50fpe2xsK8AvAEGI?e=S4HDSc", "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/15725194/2-31012023-AP-EN.pdf", "https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/gdp-growth", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CLVMEURSCAB1GQEU272020#0", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-economy-expected-skirt-recession-economy-ministry-report-2023-04-14/", "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/projections/html/ecb.projections202303_ecbstaff~77c0227058.en.html"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2023-03-21 | 1.0 | [["2023-03-22", 0.8], ["2023-03-22", 0.65], ["2023-03-22", 0.7333], ["2023-03-22", 0.7675], ["2023-03-22", 0.83], ["2023-03-22", 0.788], ["2023-03-22", 0.8233], ["2023-03-22", 0.7757], ["2023-03-23", 0.68], ["2023-03-23", 0.7156], ["2023-03-23", 0.743], ["2023-03-23", 0.7436], ["2023-03-23", 0.7025], ["2023-03-23", 0.6923], ["2023-03-23", 0.7057], ["2023-03-23", 0.712], ["2023-03-23", 0.6888], ["2023-03-23", 0.6482], ["2023-03-23", 0.6511], ["2023-03-23", 0.6616], ["2023-03-23", 0.6635], ["2023-03-23", 0.6748], ["2023-03-23", 0.6736], ["2023-03-23", 0.6718], ["2023-03-23", 0.6723], ["2023-03-24", 0.6727], ["2023-03-24", 0.6759], ["2023-03-24", 0.6857], ["2023-03-24", 0.6821], ["2023-03-24", 0.6788], ["2023-03-24", 0.6808], ["2023-03-24", 0.6623], ["2023-03-24", 0.6637], ["2023-03-24", 0.6739], ["2023-03-25", 0.6541], ["2023-03-25", 0.6517], ["2023-03-25", 0.6494], ["2023-03-25", 0.6532], ["2023-03-25", 0.6535], ["2023-03-25", 0.6539], ["2023-03-25", 0.6286], ["2023-03-26", 0.5844], ["2023-03-26", 0.6074], ["2023-03-26", 0.577], ["2023-03-26", 0.5805], ["2023-03-26", 0.5614], ["2023-03-27", 0.5878], ["2023-03-27", 0.6053], ["2023-03-27", 0.6081], ["2023-03-27", 0.6106], ["2023-03-28", 0.5794], ["2023-03-28", 0.6169], ["2023-03-29", 0.6263], ["2023-03-29", 0.6094], ["2023-03-29", 0.6088], ["2023-03-29", 0.6206], ["2023-03-29", 0.6206], ["2023-03-30", 0.6028], ["2023-03-30", 0.6133], ["2023-03-30", 0.6106], ["2023-03-30", 0.6022], ["2023-03-30", 0.5968], ["2023-03-31", 0.5979], ["2023-03-31", 0.6005], ["2023-03-31", 0.601], ["2023-03-31", 0.611], ["2023-04-01", 0.611], ["2023-04-02", 0.629], ["2023-04-03", 0.6125], ["2023-04-03", 0.62], ["2023-04-04", 0.6238], ["2023-04-04", 0.5952], ["2023-04-04", 0.6143], ["2023-04-04", 0.625], ["2023-04-05", 0.6295], ["2023-04-05", 0.6], ["2023-04-06", 0.613], ["2023-04-06", 0.6178], ["2023-04-06", 0.5963], ["2023-04-06", 0.6088], ["2023-04-06", 0.61], ["2023-04-07", 0.6004], ["2023-04-07", 0.5992], ["2023-04-10", 0.5983], ["2023-04-11", 0.6067], ["2023-04-11", 0.6067], ["2023-04-11", 0.6067], ["2023-04-11", 0.6079], ["2023-04-12", 0.6188], ["2023-04-12", 0.6188], ["2023-04-13", 0.6452], ["2023-04-13", 0.6512], ["2023-04-13", 0.6472], ["2023-04-13", 0.6552], ["2023-04-14", 0.6572], ["2023-04-14", 0.6704], ["2023-04-14", 0.675], ["2023-04-15", 0.6808], ["2023-04-15", 0.6831], ["2023-04-15", 0.6842], ["2023-04-16", 0.6938], ["2023-04-16", 0.72], ["2023-04-17", 0.7142], ["2023-04-17", 0.7277], ["2023-04-18", 0.7277], ["2023-04-18", 0.7258], ["2023-04-18", 0.7254], ["2023-04-19", 0.7078], ["2023-04-20", 0.7356], ["2023-04-21", 0.7374], ["2023-04-21", 0.7385], ["2023-04-21", 0.7422], ["2023-04-21", 0.7756], ["2023-04-21", 0.7774], ["2023-04-22", 0.783], ["2023-04-22", 0.7896], ["2023-04-22", 0.7686], ["2023-04-23", 0.7704], ["2023-04-23", 0.7711], ["2023-04-23", 0.7764], ["2023-04-23", 0.7839], ["2023-04-24", 0.7871], ["2023-04-24", 0.7907], ["2023-04-24", 0.7854], ["2023-04-24", 0.7782], ["2023-04-25", 0.7761], ["2023-04-25", 0.7804], ["2023-04-25", 0.7893], ["2023-04-25", 0.795], ["2023-04-25", 0.7775], ["2023-04-26", 0.7696], ["2023-04-27", 0.7821], ["2023-04-27", 0.7771], ["2023-04-27", 0.7771], ["2023-04-27", 0.7829], ["2023-04-27", 0.7829], ["2023-04-27", 0.7829]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2803 | True |
2020-11-03 | Will the winner of the popular vote in the 2020 United States presidential election also win the electoral college? | binary |
<p>For more information on the the popular vote and the electoral college see: (<a href="http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/about.html" target="_blank">Archives.gov</a>, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Splits_between_the_Electoral_College_and_popular_vote,">Ballotpedia</a>, <a href="http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/faq.html#ecpopulardiffer" target="_blank">Archives.gov</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2020-11-10 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2020-01-17 | 1.0 | [["2020-01-18", 0.98], ["2020-01-18", 0.84], ["2020-01-19", 0.85], ["2020-01-19", 0.81], ["2020-01-19", 0.77], ["2020-01-19", 0.75], ["2020-01-19", 0.75], ["2020-01-19", 0.775], ["2020-01-19", 0.8], ["2020-01-19", 0.8], ["2020-01-19", 0.75], ["2020-01-19", 0.75], ["2020-01-19", 0.75], ["2020-01-19", 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0.85], ["2020-10-08", 0.855], ["2020-10-09", 0.87], ["2020-10-09", 0.885], ["2020-10-10", 0.895], ["2020-10-11", 0.9], ["2020-10-11", 0.9], ["2020-10-12", 0.9], ["2020-10-13", 0.9], ["2020-10-13", 0.9], ["2020-10-14", 0.9], ["2020-10-15", 0.9], ["2020-10-15", 0.9], ["2020-10-16", 0.9], ["2020-10-18", 0.9], ["2020-10-18", 0.9], ["2020-10-19", 0.9], ["2020-10-20", 0.9], ["2020-10-21", 0.9], ["2020-10-21", 0.9], ["2020-10-22", 0.9], ["2020-10-23", 0.9], ["2020-10-24", 0.9], ["2020-10-25", 0.9], ["2020-10-26", 0.9], ["2020-10-26", 0.9], ["2020-10-27", 0.9], ["2020-10-27", 0.9], ["2020-10-27", 0.9], ["2020-10-27", 0.9], ["2020-10-28", 0.9], ["2020-10-28", 0.9], ["2020-10-29", 0.9], ["2020-10-30", 0.9], ["2020-10-30", 0.9], ["2020-10-31", 0.9], ["2020-10-31", 0.9], ["2020-11-01", 0.9], ["2020-11-01", 0.9], ["2020-11-02", 0.9], ["2020-11-02", 0.9], ["2020-11-02", 0.9], ["2020-11-03", 0.9], ["2020-11-03", 0.9]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1495 | True |
2021-01-03 | Will Nancy Pelosi be re-elected as Speaker of the House of Representatives in the 117th Congress? | binary |
<p>As hopes for a "blue wave" in the 2020 U.S. elections did not materialize and Democrats have lost several net seats in the House of Representatives, speculation abounds as to whether Speaker Pelosi will continue on in the role (<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/06/pelosi-seeks-another-2-years-as-speaker-434345" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nancy-pelosi-seeks-reelection-speaker-of-the-house/" target="_blank">CBS News</a>, <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/nancy-pelosi-unchallenged-house-speaker-election-disappointment-1546325" target="_blank">Newsweek</a>). The House will elect its Speaker for the 117th Congress on or about 3 January 2021 (<a href="https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/RL30725.html" target="_blank">EveryCRSReport.com</a>).</p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-01-04 | gjopen | ["https://www.npr.org/2020/11/18/935718252/pelosi-set-to-be-reelected-speaker-despite-house-losses", "https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/01/03/us/joe-biden-trump/the-new-congress-will-take-its-place-and-reelect-nancy-pelosi-as-speaker", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/01/02/new-congress-live-updates/", "https://www.rollcall.com/2019/01/03/pelosi-elected-speaker-with-15-democratic-defections/", "https://thehill.com/homenews/house/530945-covid-19-could-complicate-pelosis-path-to-speaker-next-year", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speaker_of_the_United_States_House_of_Representatives", "https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/03/politics/nancy-pelosi-speaker-vote/index.html", "https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/nancy-pelosi-speaker-vote-444409", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1S9V9JW2-To", "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html", "https://apnews.com/article/mariannette-miller-meeks-nancy-pelosi-coronavirus-pandemic-house-elections-a464d77ee21dcfbe1002afe7a317b48d"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2020-11-12 | 1.0 | [["2020-11-13", 0.85], ["2020-11-13", 0.85], ["2020-11-13", 0.85], ["2020-11-13", 0.85], ["2020-11-13", 0.85], ["2020-11-13", 0.85], ["2020-11-13", 0.85], ["2020-11-13", 0.85], ["2020-11-13", 0.85], ["2020-11-13", 0.85], ["2020-11-13", 0.85], ["2020-11-13", 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["2021-01-03", 0.99], ["2021-01-03", 0.99], ["2021-01-03", 0.99], ["2021-01-03", 0.99], ["2021-01-03", 0.99], ["2021-01-03", 0.99], ["2021-01-03", 0.99], ["2021-01-03", 0.99]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1837 | True |
2023-04-01 | Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen before 1 April 2023? | binary |
<p>War and conflict have left millions in Yemen facing potential famine (<a href="https://api.godocs.wfp.org/api/documents/a9a175311d8144a7b976d7742367b216/download/?_ga=2.160939381.977848004.1654011741-1453240455.1653409973" target="_blank">World Food Program - Yemen Emergency Dashboard March 2022</a>, <a href="https://docs.wfp.org/api/documents/WFP-0000125170/download/?_ga=2.268916725.547868199.1616512658-940508497.1602276079" target="_blank">Hunger Hotspots - February to May 2022 Outlook</a>, <a href="https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/ipc-mapping-tool/" target="_blank">Integrated Food Security Phase Classification - Mapping Tool</a>). For general information on how famines are declared, see: <a href="http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean" target="_blank">NPR</a>. The reporting of famine conditions without a UN famine declaration would not count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-04-01 | gjopen | ["https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/details-map/en/c/1155479/?iso3=YEM", "https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-suspends-participation-ukraine-grain-deal-after-massive-drone-attack-black-sea", "https://www.wfp.org/stories/wfp-and-fao-sound-alarm-global-food-crisis-tightens-its-grip-hunger-hotspots", "https://www.wfp.org/emergencies/yemen-emergency#:~:text=The%20current%20level%20of%20hunger,19%20million%20by%20December%202022", "https://docs.wfp.org/api/documents/WFP-0000125170/download/?_ga=2.268916725.547868199.1616512658-940508497.1602276079:", "https://www.unocha.org/es/node/950434", "https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/thousands-killed-dozens-power-stations-hospitals-bombed-2022s-forgotten-war", "https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/record-high-75-us-winter-wheat-suffers-drought", "https://www.wfp.org/publications/yemen", "https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-product/wheat/reporter/yem"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2022-06-03 | 0.0 | [["2022-06-03", 0.0], ["2022-06-03", 0.495], ["2022-06-03", 0.3333333333333333], ["2022-06-03", 0.475], ["2022-06-03", 0.4875], ["2022-06-03", 0.56], ["2022-06-03", 0.4683333333333333], ["2022-06-03", 0.46285714285714286], ["2022-06-03", 0.4642857142857143], ["2022-06-04", 0.43125], ["2022-06-04", 0.4677777777777778], ["2022-06-04", 0.451], ["2022-06-04", 0.531], ["2022-06-04", 0.437], ["2022-06-04", 0.438], ["2022-06-04", 0.393], ["2022-06-04", 0.313], ["2022-06-05", 0.312], ["2022-06-05", 0.279], ["2022-06-05", 0.309], ["2022-06-05", 0.293], ["2022-06-06", 0.273], ["2022-06-06", 0.274], ["2022-06-07", 0.294], ["2022-06-07", 0.299], ["2022-06-08", 0.294], ["2022-06-08", 0.377], ["2022-06-08", 0.377], ["2022-06-09", 0.462], ["2022-06-09", 0.461], ["2022-06-09", 0.411], ["2022-06-10", 0.429], ["2022-06-12", 0.429], ["2022-06-12", 0.428], ["2022-06-13", 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0.5707692307692308], ["2022-07-07", 0.5715384615384616], ["2022-07-07", 0.5723076923076923], ["2022-07-08", 0.6223076923076923], ["2022-07-08", 0.6184615384615385], ["2022-07-08", 0.6192307692307693], ["2022-07-09", 0.62], ["2022-07-09", 0.6207692307692307], ["2022-07-11", 0.6223076923076923], ["2022-07-11", 0.635], ["2022-07-11", 0.6357142857142857], ["2022-07-12", 0.6357142857142857], ["2022-07-12", 0.6364285714285715], ["2022-07-13", 0.6364285714285715], ["2022-07-13", 0.6621428571428571], ["2022-07-13", 0.6628571428571428], ["2022-07-14", 0.6635714285714286], ["2022-07-15", 0.6685714285714286], ["2022-07-15", 0.6542857142857142], ["2022-07-16", 0.6614285714285715], ["2022-07-16", 0.6621428571428571], ["2022-07-18", 0.655], ["2022-07-18", 0.6557142857142857], ["2022-07-19", 0.6564285714285715], ["2022-07-20", 0.6571428571428571], ["2022-07-21", 0.6935714285714286], ["2022-07-21", 0.6992857142857143], ["2022-07-21", 0.7021428571428572], ["2022-07-23", 0.7014285714285714], ["2022-07-26", 0.73], ["2022-07-27", 0.7292857142857143], ["2022-07-29", 0.73], ["2022-07-31", 0.73], ["2022-08-02", 0.7157142857142857], ["2022-08-02", 0.668], ["2022-08-08", 0.678], ["2022-08-09", 0.6493333333333333], ["2022-08-09", 0.6486666666666666], ["2022-08-10", 0.6353333333333333], ["2022-08-10", 0.6453333333333333], ["2022-08-16", 0.646], ["2022-08-20", 0.6367], ["2022-08-21", 0.6367], ["2022-08-21", 0.636], ["2022-08-24", 0.6347], ["2022-08-25", 0.6347], ["2022-08-26", 0.6347], ["2022-08-27", 0.6481], ["2022-08-27", 0.6481], ["2022-08-28", 0.6475], ["2022-08-29", 0.6538], ["2022-08-29", 0.6538], ["2022-08-31", 0.6356], ["2022-09-01", 0.635], ["2022-09-06", 0.6319], ["2022-09-10", 0.6319], ["2022-09-10", 0.6381], ["2022-09-10", 0.6269], ["2022-09-11", 0.6144], ["2022-09-11", 0.6138], ["2022-09-12", 0.6131], ["2022-09-14", 0.6125], ["2022-09-17", 0.6119], ["2022-09-17", 0.5931], ["2022-09-18", 0.6138], ["2022-09-20", 0.6131], ["2022-09-21", 0.6119], ["2022-09-22", 0.6119], ["2022-09-23", 0.6044], ["2022-09-25", 0.57], ["2022-09-26", 0.6169], ["2022-09-27", 0.6169], ["2022-09-30", 0.61], ["2022-10-01", 0.6094], ["2022-10-02", 0.5947], ["2022-10-04", 0.5829], ["2022-10-08", 0.5818], ["2022-10-09", 0.5782], ["2022-10-10", 0.5724], ["2022-10-13", 0.5694], ["2022-10-13", 0.5694], ["2022-10-14", 0.5688], ["2022-10-14", 0.57], ["2022-10-18", 0.5694], ["2022-10-21", 0.5841], ["2022-10-21", 0.5847], ["2022-10-23", 0.5847], ["2022-10-24", 0.5553], ["2022-10-25", 0.5547], ["2022-10-28", 0.5459], ["2022-10-29", 0.5453], ["2022-10-30", 0.5453], ["2022-11-03", 0.5447], ["2022-11-04", 0.5459], ["2022-11-05", 0.5312], ["2022-11-07", 0.5306], ["2022-11-11", 0.53], ["2022-11-12", 0.5241], ["2022-11-14", 0.5235], ["2022-11-14", 0.5271], ["2022-11-19", 0.5276], ["2022-11-22", 0.5241], ["2022-11-25", 0.5139], ["2022-11-25", 0.5133], ["2022-11-26", 0.5078], ["2022-11-29", 0.5022], ["2022-11-30", 0.5017], ["2022-12-01", 0.5011], ["2022-12-05", 0.4933], ["2022-12-05", 0.4928], ["2022-12-08", 0.4911], ["2022-12-10", 0.4906], ["2022-12-14", 0.4844], ["2022-12-15", 0.4839], ["2022-12-16", 0.4394], ["2022-12-17", 0.4361], ["2022-12-19", 0.4028], ["2022-12-19", 0.4022], ["2022-12-20", 0.3994], ["2022-12-21", 0.4161], ["2022-12-21", 0.4139], ["2022-12-23", 0.4133], ["2022-12-23", 0.4078], ["2022-12-24", 0.4232], ["2022-12-26", 0.3968], ["2022-12-27", 0.3963], ["2022-12-28", 0.3937], ["2022-12-28", 0.3926], ["2022-12-29", 0.3789], ["2022-12-30", 0.3768], ["2022-12-30", 0.3763], ["2022-12-31", 0.3747], ["2023-01-02", 0.3737], ["2023-01-02", 0.3732], ["2023-01-03", 0.3721], ["2023-01-03", 0.3935], ["2023-01-05", 0.393], ["2023-01-07", 0.3925], ["2023-01-07", 0.3875], ["2023-01-07", 0.3835], ["2023-01-07", 0.342], ["2023-01-09", 0.3415], ["2023-01-10", 0.341], ["2023-01-12", 0.3405], ["2023-01-12", 0.3415], ["2023-01-13", 0.3215], ["2023-01-13", 0.307], ["2023-01-15", 0.3065], ["2023-01-15", 0.3065], ["2023-01-16", 0.306], ["2023-01-17", 0.3055], ["2023-01-17", 0.3035], ["2023-01-18", 0.303], ["2023-01-18", 0.2855], ["2023-01-19", 0.283], ["2023-01-21", 0.282], ["2023-01-21", 0.279], ["2023-01-24", 0.2785], ["2023-01-24", 0.271], ["2023-01-25", 0.265], ["2023-01-25", 0.215], ["2023-01-25", 0.2135], ["2023-01-28", 0.2105], ["2023-01-29", 0.21], ["2023-01-29", 0.2135], ["2023-01-29", 0.213], ["2023-01-30", 0.2148], ["2023-01-30", 0.2005], ["2023-01-31", 0.205], ["2023-01-31", 0.2123], ["2023-02-01", 0.2068], ["2023-02-02", 0.2059], ["2023-02-04", 0.2041], ["2023-02-04", 0.2041], ["2023-02-05", 0.2064], ["2023-02-05", 0.1995], ["2023-02-05", 0.1959], ["2023-02-05", 0.1873], ["2023-02-06", 0.1759], ["2023-02-06", 0.1736], ["2023-02-07", 0.1727], ["2023-02-09", 0.1686], ["2023-02-09", 0.1668], ["2023-02-10", 0.1618], ["2023-02-13", 0.1618], ["2023-02-13", 0.1582], ["2023-02-16", 0.1573], ["2023-02-21", 0.1482], ["2023-02-22", 0.1468], ["2023-02-23", 0.1459], ["2023-03-01", 0.1436], ["2023-03-06", 0.1436], ["2023-03-06", 0.1432], ["2023-03-08", 0.1405], ["2023-03-09", 0.1109], ["2023-03-10", 0.1091], ["2023-03-12", 0.1043], ["2023-03-12", 0.1039], ["2023-03-13", 0.1035], ["2023-03-16", 0.0974], ["2023-03-17", 0.097], ["2023-03-18", 0.0726], ["2023-03-19", 0.0722], ["2023-03-20", 0.0722], ["2023-03-20", 0.0657], ["2023-03-20", 0.0657], ["2023-03-20", 0.0657], ["2023-03-20", 0.0652], ["2023-03-21", 0.0635], ["2023-03-22", 0.0626], ["2023-03-23", 0.0704], ["2023-03-25", 0.0642], ["2023-03-25", 0.0417], ["2023-03-25", 0.04], ["2023-03-25", 0.0329], ["2023-03-25", 0.0225], ["2023-03-25", 0.0225], ["2023-03-25", 0.0208], ["2023-03-25", 0.0163], ["2023-03-26", 0.0163], ["2023-03-26", 0.0156], ["2023-03-28", 0.0152], ["2023-03-29", 0.0152], ["2023-03-29", 0.0152], ["2023-03-31", 0.014], ["2023-03-31", 0.0135], ["2023-04-01", 0.0135], ["2023-04-01", 0.0135], ["2023-04-01", 0.0135]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2409 | True |
2022-01-01 | Before 1 January 2022, will Kais Saied cease to be the president of Tunisia? | binary |
<p>The future of Tunisia's democracy is uncertain after President Kais Saied invoked emergency powers, suspended parliament, and dismissed the prime minister (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/tunisian-presidents-feud-with-party-elites-drove-him-seize-reins-power-2021-08-08/" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/tunisia-coup-president-kais-saied-no-turning-back" target="_blank">Middle East Eye</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/26/kais-saied-robocop-president-accused-launching-tunisia-coup" target="_blank">Guardian</a>, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/28/tunisia-reassures-turkey-eu-un-after-its-president-froze-parlia" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-01-01 | gjopen | ["https://english.alarabiya.net/News/north-africa/2021/08/20/Tunisian-President-Saied-announces-intention-to-form-new-government", "https://allafrica.com/stories/202109100274.html", "http://arabcenterdc.org/events/tunisias-constitutional-crisis-and-yearning-for-democracy-in-northwest-africa/", "https://www.albawaba.com/news/tunisia-arrests-terrorist-plotting-kill-president-kais-saied-1443472", "https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2021/08/12/a-flood-of-vaccines-for-tunisia-as-foreigners-vie-for-influence", "https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/tunisia-coup-kais-saied-ugtt-labour-union-defends-measures", "https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/tunisian-lawyers-politicians-split-constitutional-crisis-2021-07-26/", "https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2021/07/26/kais-saieds-power-grab-in-tunisia/", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/21/tunisia-ex-anticorruption-chief-placed-under-house-arrest", "https://africacenter.org/spotlight/tunisia-crisis-explainer/", "https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/north-africa/tunisia/tunisias-leap-unknown", "https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/experts-react-whats-next-after-tunisian-presidents-parliamentary-freeze/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WyF8RHM1OCg", "https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2021/7/27/what-happened-in-tunisia-was-a-coup", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/01/world/middleeast/tunisia-president-kais-saied.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadair_CL-415", "https://constitutionnet.org/country/tunisia", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scipio_Africanus"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2021-08-13 | 0.0 | [["2021-08-13", 1.0], ["2021-08-13", 0.5], ["2021-08-13", 0.22], ["2021-08-13", 0.135], ["2021-08-13", 0.05], ["2021-08-13", 0.135], ["2021-08-13", 0.1], ["2021-08-13", 0.075], ["2021-08-13", 0.05], ["2021-08-13", 0.05], ["2021-08-14", 0.045], ["2021-08-14", 0.04], ["2021-08-14", 0.04], ["2021-08-14", 0.045], ["2021-08-14", 0.05], ["2021-08-14", 0.045], ["2021-08-14", 0.04], ["2021-08-14", 0.03], ["2021-08-14", 0.03], ["2021-08-15", 0.02], ["2021-08-15", 0.03], ["2021-08-15", 0.04], ["2021-08-15", 0.03], ["2021-08-15", 0.035], ["2021-08-15", 0.03], ["2021-08-15", 0.025], ["2021-08-15", 0.03], ["2021-08-16", 0.025], ["2021-08-16", 0.02], ["2021-08-16", 0.025], ["2021-08-17", 0.03], ["2021-08-17", 0.03], ["2021-08-17", 0.02], ["2021-08-17", 0.025], ["2021-08-18", 0.025], ["2021-08-18", 0.02], ["2021-08-18", 0.015], ["2021-08-18", 0.015], ["2021-08-19", 0.02], ["2021-08-19", 0.05], ["2021-08-19", 0.05], ["2021-08-19", 0.05], ["2021-08-19", 0.05], ["2021-08-19", 0.05], ["2021-08-19", 0.045], ["2021-08-20", 0.045], ["2021-08-21", 0.045], ["2021-08-21", 0.03], ["2021-08-21", 0.02], ["2021-08-22", 0.04], ["2021-08-23", 0.04], ["2021-08-24", 0.04], ["2021-08-25", 0.03], ["2021-08-25", 0.025], ["2021-08-25", 0.02], ["2021-08-26", 0.025], ["2021-08-27", 0.02], ["2021-08-29", 0.02], ["2021-08-29", 0.02], ["2021-08-31", 0.02], ["2021-09-02", 0.02], ["2021-09-03", 0.015], ["2021-09-04", 0.015], ["2021-09-04", 0.015], ["2021-09-08", 0.015], ["2021-09-09", 0.015], ["2021-09-09", 0.01], ["2021-09-09", 0.01], ["2021-09-09", 0.015], ["2021-09-10", 0.015], ["2021-09-10", 0.015], ["2021-09-10", 0.015], ["2021-09-10", 0.01], ["2021-09-11", 0.01], ["2021-09-11", 0.01], ["2021-09-13", 0.01], ["2021-09-16", 0.01], ["2021-09-20", 0.01], ["2021-09-22", 0.0], ["2021-09-22", 0.0], ["2021-09-23", 0.0], ["2021-09-24", 0.0], ["2021-09-25", 0.0], ["2021-09-26", 0.0], ["2021-09-27", 0.0], ["2021-09-27", 0.01], ["2021-09-28", 0.01], ["2021-09-28", 0.01], ["2021-09-28", 0.01], ["2021-09-29", 0.01], ["2021-09-30", 0.01], ["2021-10-02", 0.005], ["2021-10-07", 0.005], ["2021-10-08", 0.01], ["2021-10-11", 0.01], ["2021-10-15", 0.01], ["2021-10-17", 0.01], ["2021-10-20", 0.01], ["2021-10-21", 0.01], ["2021-10-27", 0.01], ["2021-10-27", 0.005], ["2021-10-27", 0.005], ["2021-10-31", 0.0], ["2021-11-03", 0.0], ["2021-11-05", 0.0], ["2021-11-10", 0.0], ["2021-11-11", 0.0], ["2021-11-14", 0.0], ["2021-11-14", 0.0], ["2021-11-15", 0.0], ["2021-11-18", 0.0], ["2021-11-18", 0.0], ["2021-11-18", 0.0], ["2021-11-20", 0.0], ["2021-11-20", 0.0], ["2021-11-22", 0.0], ["2021-11-26", 0.0], ["2021-11-29", 0.0], ["2021-11-30", 0.0], ["2021-11-30", 0.0], ["2021-12-02", 0.0], ["2021-12-02", 0.0], ["2021-12-05", 0.0], ["2021-12-07", 0.0], ["2021-12-07", 0.0], ["2021-12-09", 0.0], ["2021-12-10", 0.0], ["2021-12-10", 0.0], ["2021-12-15", 0.0], ["2021-12-16", 0.0], ["2021-12-17", 0.0], ["2021-12-20", 0.0], ["2021-12-21", 0.0], ["2021-12-22", 0.0], ["2021-12-23", 0.0], ["2021-12-25", 0.0], ["2021-12-26", 0.0], ["2021-12-29", 0.0], ["2021-12-30", 0.0], ["2022-01-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2100 | True |
2022-01-01 | Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA? | binary |
<p>Obstacles standing in the way of the U.S. rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) include the issues of current U.S. sanctions against Iran and Iran's resumed production of highly enriched uranium (<a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/rejoining-the-iran-nuclear-deal-not-so-easy/" target="_blank">Atlantic Council</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-iran-deal/2021/02/05/b968154c-67d7-11eb-886d-5264d4ceb46d_story.html" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>, <a href="https://fas.org/irp/offdocs/nspm/nspm-11.pdf" target="_blank">Federation of American Scientists</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.2;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 14 June 2021</span>: The US rejoining the JCPOA under revised terms would count.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-01-01 | gjopen | ["https://shareok.org/bitstream/handle/11244/329592/2021_Fitzgerald_Jonathan_Thesis.docx", "https://www.eurasiareview.com/18102021-iran-to-resume-jcpoa-talks-next-week-says-lawmaker/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-fails-fully-honour-agreement-monitoring-equipment-iaea-says-2021-09-26/", "https://www.ft.com/content/4064a819-80f1-4d93-9a1c-abcf4f30b3ab", "https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/iransource/how-iran-sees-the-biden-doctrine-for-the-jcpoa-and-persian-gulf/", "https://www.amazon.com/Manufactured-Crisis-Untold-Story-Nuclear/dp/1935982338", "https://twitter.com/unhumanrights/status/1438435977224146948", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/22/separate-nuclear-iran-deal-jcpoa-regional-security-saudi-arabia-uae/", "https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/466584/For-Iran-JCPOA-is-a-bounced-check-MP", "https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/gov-2015-68.pdf", "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iran-wants-us-assurances-it-will-never-abandon-nuclear-deal-if-revived-2021-11-08/", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/3/iran-nuclear-talks-with-world-powers-to-resume-on-november-29", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/10/07/iran-deal-talks-jcpoa-vienna-nuclear-negotiations-raisi/#", "https://www.nbcnews.com/investigations/iran-reneges-previous-concessions-nuclear-talks-us-officials-says-rcna7649", "https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/10/30/joint-statement-by-the-president-of-france-emmanuel-macron-chancellor-of-germany-angela-merkel-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-and-northern-ireland-boris-johnson-and-president-of-the-united-st/", "https://www.ft.com/content/aa012e45-e2b6-4a65-840d-591450260e0f", "https://ecfr.eu/article/nuclear-talks-under-raisi-irans-diplomats-are-going-slow-to-appear-smart/", "https://twitter.com/laurnorman/status/1450122885956243460", "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/03/iran-will-return-to-nuclear-deal-talks-later-this-month.html", "https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-iran-nuclear-deal", "https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/09/iran-iaea-spar-over-access-karaj-nuclear-site", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/breaking-from-longheld-israeli-stance-gantz-willing-to-accept-jcpoa-revival/", "https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/u-s-moves-to-tighten-iran-sanctions-enforcement-as-nuclear-talks-stall-11639039567", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1345447", "https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2021/10/20/revealed-how-biden-rejected-a-reasonable-way-forward-in-iran-deal-talks/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2021-02-12 | 0.0 | [["2021-02-12", 0.6], ["2021-02-12", 0.56], ["2021-02-12", 0.675], ["2021-02-12", 0.75], ["2021-02-12", 0.65], ["2021-02-13", 0.75], ["2021-02-13", 0.75], ["2021-02-13", 0.75], ["2021-02-13", 0.75], ["2021-02-14", 0.75], ["2021-02-14", 0.75], ["2021-02-14", 0.8], ["2021-02-14", 0.8], ["2021-02-15", 0.75], ["2021-02-15", 0.8], ["2021-02-16", 0.75], ["2021-02-16", 0.8], ["2021-02-17", 0.8], ["2021-02-17", 0.79], ["2021-02-18", 0.72], ["2021-02-18", 0.75], ["2021-02-18", 0.68], ["2021-02-18", 0.69], ["2021-02-19", 0.7], ["2021-02-19", 0.75], ["2021-02-19", 0.75], ["2021-02-20", 0.75], ["2021-02-21", 0.79], ["2021-02-22", 0.765], ["2021-02-22", 0.79], ["2021-02-22", 0.8], ["2021-02-23", 0.8], ["2021-02-23", 0.79], ["2021-02-24", 0.765], ["2021-02-25", 0.78], ["2021-02-26", 0.75], ["2021-02-28", 0.71], ["2021-02-28", 0.66], ["2021-03-01", 0.66], ["2021-03-01", 0.65], ["2021-03-02", 0.67], ["2021-03-02", 0.65], ["2021-03-02", 0.65], ["2021-03-03", 0.55], ["2021-03-04", 0.55], ["2021-03-05", 0.52], ["2021-03-06", 0.55], ["2021-03-06", 0.52], ["2021-03-07", 0.49], ["2021-03-07", 0.48], ["2021-03-07", 0.48], ["2021-03-08", 0.48], ["2021-03-08", 0.48], ["2021-03-08", 0.5], ["2021-03-09", 0.5], ["2021-03-11", 0.5], ["2021-03-12", 0.5], ["2021-03-15", 0.5], ["2021-03-15", 0.5], ["2021-03-15", 0.525], ["2021-03-16", 0.5], ["2021-03-18", 0.5], ["2021-03-19", 0.49], ["2021-03-20", 0.49], ["2021-03-21", 0.45], ["2021-03-22", 0.45], ["2021-03-23", 0.45], ["2021-03-25", 0.45], ["2021-03-25", 0.45], ["2021-03-26", 0.385], ["2021-03-27", 0.385], ["2021-03-27", 0.38], ["2021-03-29", 0.35], ["2021-03-30", 0.35], ["2021-03-30", 0.35], ["2021-03-31", 0.35], ["2021-04-01", 0.35], ["2021-04-01", 0.39], ["2021-04-01", 0.44], ["2021-04-02", 0.44], ["2021-04-02", 0.46], ["2021-04-02", 0.46], ["2021-04-03", 0.45], ["2021-04-03", 0.45], ["2021-04-04", 0.485], ["2021-04-05", 0.51], ["2021-04-06", 0.545], ["2021-04-06", 0.545], ["2021-04-07", 0.51], ["2021-04-08", 0.57], ["2021-04-09", 0.57], ["2021-04-09", 0.57], ["2021-04-09", 0.585], ["2021-04-10", 0.57], ["2021-04-11", 0.57], ["2021-04-12", 0.57], ["2021-04-14", 0.59], ["2021-04-15", 0.59], ["2021-04-16", 0.6], ["2021-04-17", 0.6], ["2021-04-18", 0.6], ["2021-04-18", 0.6], ["2021-04-19", 0.59], ["2021-04-20", 0.59], ["2021-04-21", 0.59], ["2021-04-23", 0.595], ["2021-04-23", 0.555], ["2021-04-25", 0.555], ["2021-04-27", 0.5], ["2021-04-28", 0.515], ["2021-04-29", 0.515], ["2021-04-29", 0.5], ["2021-04-30", 0.515], ["2021-05-02", 0.5], ["2021-05-03", 0.5], ["2021-05-05", 0.5], ["2021-05-05", 0.5], ["2021-05-06", 0.5], ["2021-05-06", 0.55], ["2021-05-07", 0.55], ["2021-05-07", 0.525], ["2021-05-09", 0.525], ["2021-05-10", 0.57], ["2021-05-11", 0.57], ["2021-05-12", 0.57], ["2021-05-14", 0.56], ["2021-05-14", 0.55], ["2021-05-17", 0.55], ["2021-05-17", 0.55], ["2021-05-18", 0.55], ["2021-05-19", 0.55], ["2021-05-21", 0.55], ["2021-05-22", 0.56], ["2021-05-24", 0.585], ["2021-05-24", 0.585], ["2021-05-25", 0.6], ["2021-05-26", 0.61], ["2021-05-27", 0.63], ["2021-05-29", 0.625], ["2021-05-29", 0.635], ["2021-05-31", 0.64], ["2021-06-01", 0.64], ["2021-06-02", 0.65], ["2021-06-02", 0.67], ["2021-06-04", 0.67], ["2021-06-07", 0.67], ["2021-06-08", 0.67], ["2021-06-09", 0.67], ["2021-06-10", 0.67], ["2021-06-12", 0.67], ["2021-06-13", 0.67], ["2021-06-14", 0.67], ["2021-06-15", 0.67], ["2021-06-16", 0.665], ["2021-06-17", 0.665], ["2021-06-17", 0.665], ["2021-06-19", 0.65], ["2021-06-20", 0.65], ["2021-06-21", 0.65], ["2021-06-21", 0.65], ["2021-06-21", 0.63], ["2021-06-22", 0.615], ["2021-06-22", 0.57], ["2021-06-23", 0.57], ["2021-06-23", 0.57], ["2021-06-24", 0.57], ["2021-06-25", 0.545], ["2021-06-25", 0.515], ["2021-06-26", 0.515], ["2021-06-28", 0.515], ["2021-06-29", 0.505], ["2021-06-29", 0.5], ["2021-06-30", 0.5], ["2021-07-01", 0.495], ["2021-07-02", 0.495], ["2021-07-04", 0.48], ["2021-07-05", 0.48], ["2021-07-06", 0.48], ["2021-07-07", 0.47], ["2021-07-09", 0.46], ["2021-07-10", 0.42], ["2021-07-12", 0.42], ["2021-07-13", 0.4], ["2021-07-13", 0.4], ["2021-07-13", 0.4], ["2021-07-14", 0.4], ["2021-07-14", 0.4], ["2021-07-15", 0.4], ["2021-07-16", 0.4], ["2021-07-16", 0.4], ["2021-07-17", 0.39], ["2021-07-18", 0.39], ["2021-07-18", 0.38], ["2021-07-20", 0.38], ["2021-07-20", 0.36], ["2021-07-20", 0.36], ["2021-07-21", 0.355], ["2021-07-22", 0.33], ["2021-07-23", 0.33], ["2021-07-24", 0.3], ["2021-07-24", 0.3], ["2021-07-25", 0.3], ["2021-07-26", 0.28], ["2021-07-27", 0.28], ["2021-07-27", 0.28], ["2021-07-29", 0.27], ["2021-07-29", 0.26], ["2021-07-30", 0.255], ["2021-08-01", 0.25], ["2021-08-02", 0.25], ["2021-08-02", 0.25], ["2021-08-04", 0.25], ["2021-08-04", 0.21], ["2021-08-05", 0.205], ["2021-08-06", 0.2], ["2021-08-06", 0.2], ["2021-08-08", 0.2], ["2021-08-08", 0.2], ["2021-08-10", 0.2], ["2021-08-10", 0.2], ["2021-08-10", 0.2], ["2021-08-14", 0.2], ["2021-08-15", 0.2], ["2021-08-16", 0.2], ["2021-08-17", 0.2], ["2021-08-17", 0.2], ["2021-08-18", 0.2], ["2021-08-19", 0.21], ["2021-08-21", 0.21], ["2021-08-22", 0.2], ["2021-08-23", 0.2], ["2021-08-23", 0.2], ["2021-08-24", 0.18], ["2021-08-24", 0.18], ["2021-08-25", 0.18], ["2021-08-25", 0.18], ["2021-08-26", 0.18], ["2021-08-29", 0.165], ["2021-08-30", 0.15], ["2021-08-30", 0.15], ["2021-09-01", 0.15], ["2021-09-02", 0.15], ["2021-09-03", 0.15], ["2021-09-05", 0.15], ["2021-09-05", 0.15], ["2021-09-07", 0.15], ["2021-09-09", 0.145], ["2021-09-09", 0.14], ["2021-09-09", 0.14], ["2021-09-11", 0.14], ["2021-09-11", 0.14], ["2021-09-12", 0.14], ["2021-09-12", 0.14], ["2021-09-13", 0.14], ["2021-09-15", 0.145], ["2021-09-16", 0.14], ["2021-09-16", 0.14], ["2021-09-16", 0.14], ["2021-09-20", 0.14], ["2021-09-22", 0.14], ["2021-09-24", 0.14], ["2021-09-24", 0.14], ["2021-09-25", 0.14], ["2021-09-27", 0.14], ["2021-09-28", 0.1], ["2021-09-28", 0.1], ["2021-09-28", 0.1], ["2021-09-29", 0.1], ["2021-09-30", 0.1], ["2021-09-30", 0.1], ["2021-09-30", 0.1], ["2021-10-02", 0.1], ["2021-10-05", 0.1], ["2021-10-05", 0.1], ["2021-10-06", 0.1], ["2021-10-06", 0.1], ["2021-10-07", 0.1], ["2021-10-10", 0.1], ["2021-10-10", 0.095], ["2021-10-11", 0.09], ["2021-10-11", 0.09], ["2021-10-12", 0.08], ["2021-10-13", 0.07], ["2021-10-13", 0.06], ["2021-10-13", 0.06], ["2021-10-14", 0.05], ["2021-10-15", 0.05], ["2021-10-17", 0.05], ["2021-10-17", 0.05], ["2021-10-18", 0.05], ["2021-10-19", 0.05], ["2021-10-20", 0.05], ["2021-10-20", 0.05], ["2021-10-21", 0.05], ["2021-10-22", 0.05], ["2021-10-22", 0.05], ["2021-10-24", 0.05], ["2021-10-24", 0.05], ["2021-10-25", 0.05], ["2021-10-27", 0.05], ["2021-10-27", 0.05], ["2021-10-28", 0.05], ["2021-10-30", 0.05], ["2021-11-01", 0.05], ["2021-11-02", 0.05], ["2021-11-04", 0.05], ["2021-11-05", 0.05], ["2021-11-07", 0.045], ["2021-11-07", 0.045], ["2021-11-07", 0.045], ["2021-11-08", 0.04], ["2021-11-09", 0.04], ["2021-11-10", 0.04], ["2021-11-12", 0.04], ["2021-11-14", 0.04], ["2021-11-16", 0.035], ["2021-11-17", 0.03], ["2021-11-18", 0.03], ["2021-11-18", 0.03], ["2021-11-19", 0.03], ["2021-11-20", 0.03], ["2021-11-22", 0.03], ["2021-11-23", 0.03], ["2021-11-24", 0.03], ["2021-11-27", 0.03], ["2021-11-29", 0.03], ["2021-11-30", 0.03], ["2021-12-01", 0.03], ["2021-12-03", 0.03], ["2021-12-03", 0.03], ["2021-12-03", 0.03], ["2021-12-04", 0.03], ["2021-12-05", 0.03], ["2021-12-06", 0.025], ["2021-12-06", 0.025], ["2021-12-06", 0.02], ["2021-12-06", 0.01], ["2021-12-07", 0.01], ["2021-12-08", 0.01], ["2021-12-09", 0.01], ["2021-12-09", 0.01], ["2021-12-10", 0.01], ["2021-12-12", 0.01], ["2021-12-12", 0.01], ["2021-12-14", 0.005], ["2021-12-16", 0.0], ["2021-12-17", 0.0], ["2021-12-18", 0.0], ["2021-12-18", 0.0], ["2021-12-20", 0.0], ["2021-12-20", 0.0], ["2021-12-21", 0.0], ["2021-12-21", 0.0], ["2021-12-22", 0.0], ["2021-12-25", 0.0], ["2021-12-26", 0.0], ["2021-12-28", 0.0], ["2021-12-29", 0.0], ["2021-12-30", 0.0], ["2021-12-31", 0.0], ["2022-01-01", 0.0], ["2022-01-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1935 | True |
2021-05-01 | Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority? | binary |
<p>Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas finds himself under increased pressure as Arab states improve ties with Israel and political rivals jockey for position (<a href="https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20201027-the-growing-calls-to-replace-the-palestinian-leadership/" target="_blank">Middle East Monitor</a>, <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/abbas-slams-israel-sudan-deal-no-one-can-speak-on-behalf-of-palestinians/" target="_blank">Times of Israel</a>, <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/30/mohammed-dahlan-uae-palestinians-israel/" target="_blank">Foreign Policy</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-05-01 | gjopen | ["https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/abbas-to-address-j-street-conference-in-bid-to-keep-palestinians-on-biden-s-agenda-1.9720346", "https://www.arabnews.com/node/1827836/middle-east", "https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/no-decision-yet-on-mahmoud--abbas-successor-1.727269", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/15/world/middleeast/palestinian-elections-abbas.html", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-palestinians-election-abbas-fatah/abbas-battles-fatah-party-discord-ahead-of-palestinian-elections-idUSKBN2AZ07T?il=0", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/02/02/new-palestinian-elections-mahmoud-abbas-fatah-hamas-plo-palestinian-authority-israel-reform/", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/5/palestinian-president-flies-to-germany-for-medical-checkup", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/palestinian-leader-calls-first-vote-in-15-years-amid-hopes-to-heal-rift-with-u-s-11610820680", "https://www.dw.com/en/palestinian-president-mahmoud-abbas-to-undergo-medical-tests-in-germany/a-57102570", "https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/.premium-palestinian-president-mahmoud-abbas-must-resign-or-be-deposed-1.9626706", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/pa-premier-abbas-to-run-as-fatah-candidate-in-palestinian-presidential-election/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2020-11-06 | 0.0 | [["2020-11-06", 1.0], ["2020-11-06", 0.725], ["2020-11-06", 0.45], ["2020-11-06", 0.255], ["2020-11-07", 0.38], ["2020-11-07", 0.415], ["2020-11-07", 0.38], ["2020-11-07", 0.38], ["2020-11-07", 0.38], ["2020-11-07", 0.38], ["2020-11-07", 0.38], ["2020-11-07", 0.315], ["2020-11-08", 0.15], ["2020-11-08", 0.125], ["2020-11-08", 0.115], ["2020-11-08", 0.14], ["2020-11-08", 0.215], ["2020-11-08", 0.2], ["2020-11-08", 0.15], ["2020-11-09", 0.075], ["2020-11-09", 0.125], ["2020-11-09", 0.075], ["2020-11-09", 0.075], ["2020-11-09", 0.075], ["2020-11-09", 0.125], ["2020-11-10", 0.15], 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["2021-04-30", 0.0], ["2021-04-30", 0.0], ["2021-04-30", 0.0], ["2021-05-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1825 | True |
2022-01-01 | Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics? | binary |
<p>Countries have boycotted the Olympics for various reasons throughout history (<a href="https://montrealgazette.com/sports/montreal-olympics-african-boycott-of-1976-games-changed-the-world" target="_blank">Montreal Gazette</a>, <a href="https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/qfp/104481.htm" target="_blank">Dept. of State</a>, <a href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/soviets-announce-boycott-of-1984-olympics" target="_blank">History.com</a>). Some groups are calling on nations to boycott the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics due to China's treatment of its Uighur population (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/china-avoids-olympic-protests-by-banning-foreign-spectators" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.dailysabah.com/world/asia-pacific/rights-group-criticizes-ioc-over-uighurs-issue-in-china" target="_blank">Daily Sabah</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/25/trump-administration-china-genocide-uighurs-401581" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="https://www.olympic.org/beijing-2022" target="_blank">Olympic.org</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.5;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 24 May 2021</span>: The question asks about an announcement by the United States Olympic Committee. Whether the US sends persons other than athletes (e.g., political dignitaries) is immaterial.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-01-03 | gjopen | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Olympic_%26_Paralympic_Committee#Relationship_between_IOC_and_USOPC", "https://www.insidethegames.biz/articles/1109127/united-states-beijing-2022-bill-boycott", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senators-propose-adding-boycott-chinas-winter-olympics-defense-bill-2021-10-28/", "https://www.teamusa.org/Media/News/USOPC/092421-Audio-USOPC-Leadership-Press-Briefing", "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-59556613", "https://www.history.com/news/olympic-boycotts", "https://supchina.com/2021/08/16/calls-intensify-for-a-boycott-of-beijing-2022/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_at_the_Olympics", "https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/sports/biden-says-us-considering-diplomatic-boycott-beijing-olympics-2021-11-18/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/11/16/beijing-olympics-2022-biden-partial-boycott/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concerns_and_controversies_at_the_2022_Winter_Olympics#cite_note-cnbc_U.S.-29", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_Summer_Olympics", "https://www.sportbusiness.com/2021/09/sarah-hirshland-pursues-dramatic-new-path-for-usopc/", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-59556613", "http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2014/10/02/ioc_demands_oslo_drops_bid_after_over_the_top_list_of_requirements.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Winter_Olympics#Bidding", "https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/sports/china-says-us-diplomatic-boycott-winter-olympics-could-harm-co-operation-2021-12-07/", "https://www.dw.com/en/us-olympic-committee-opposes-boycott-of-2022-beijing-winter-olympics/a-56832982", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-says-us-considering-diplomatic-boycott-of-winter-olympics-in-china/2021/11/18/252ed4cc-48a2-11ec-b8d9-232f4afe4d9b_story.html", "https://www.firstpost.com/sports/us-olympic-committee-opposes-ineffective-2022-winter-olympics-boycott-usopc-president-susanne-lyons-9403671.html", "https://tr.euronews.com/2021/12/06/abd-cin-in-uygurlara-yonelik-tutumu-nedeniyle-pekin-olimpiyatlar-na-boykot-uygulayacak?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1638817430", "https://fortune.com/2021/08/20/us-sponsors-beijing-winter-olympics-congress-boycott-china/", "https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-confirms-us-diplomatic-boycott-beijing-olympics/story?id=81260458", "https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/06/politics/us-diplomatic-boycott-winter-olympics/index.html", "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/06/us-considering-joining-boycott-of-2022-beijing-olympics.html"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2020-08-28 | 0.0 | [["2020-08-28", 0.4], ["2020-08-28", 0.525], ["2020-08-28", 0.5], ["2020-08-28", 0.29], ["2020-08-28", 0.275], ["2020-08-29", 0.275], ["2020-08-29", 0.25], ["2020-08-29", 0.15], ["2020-08-29", 0.08], ["2020-08-30", 0.1], ["2020-08-30", 0.1], ["2020-08-30", 0.1], ["2020-08-30", 0.1], ["2020-08-30", 0.1], ["2020-08-30", 0.1], ["2020-08-31", 0.1], ["2020-08-31", 0.1], ["2020-08-31", 0.1], ["2020-08-31", 0.1], ["2020-08-31", 0.09], ["2020-08-31", 0.1], ["2020-09-01", 0.1], ["2020-09-01", 0.1], ["2020-09-01", 0.1], ["2020-09-02", 0.1], ["2020-09-02", 0.1], ["2020-09-02", 0.1], ["2020-09-03", 0.1], ["2020-09-03", 0.075], ["2020-09-03", 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["2021-03-30", 0.04], ["2021-03-31", 0.04], ["2021-04-01", 0.045], ["2021-04-04", 0.05], ["2021-04-06", 0.045], ["2021-04-07", 0.05], ["2021-04-07", 0.05], ["2021-04-07", 0.05], ["2021-04-09", 0.05], ["2021-04-11", 0.05], ["2021-04-12", 0.05], ["2021-04-13", 0.05], ["2021-04-15", 0.05], ["2021-04-16", 0.05], ["2021-04-18", 0.05], ["2021-04-19", 0.05], ["2021-04-21", 0.05], ["2021-04-23", 0.05], ["2021-04-24", 0.05], ["2021-04-27", 0.05], ["2021-04-28", 0.05], ["2021-05-02", 0.05], ["2021-05-04", 0.05], ["2021-05-04", 0.05], ["2021-05-06", 0.05], ["2021-05-08", 0.05], ["2021-05-10", 0.05], ["2021-05-11", 0.05], ["2021-05-12", 0.05], ["2021-05-13", 0.05], ["2021-05-15", 0.05], ["2021-05-16", 0.05], ["2021-05-17", 0.05], ["2021-05-17", 0.05], ["2021-05-18", 0.05], ["2021-05-18", 0.05], ["2021-05-19", 0.05], ["2021-05-19", 0.05], ["2021-05-20", 0.05], ["2021-05-21", 0.05], ["2021-05-22", 0.05], ["2021-05-24", 0.05], ["2021-05-25", 0.05], ["2021-05-26", 0.05], ["2021-05-28", 0.05], ["2021-06-01", 0.05], ["2021-06-03", 0.04], ["2021-06-04", 0.04], ["2021-06-08", 0.03], ["2021-06-08", 0.03], ["2021-06-09", 0.03], ["2021-06-09", 0.03], ["2021-06-10", 0.03], ["2021-06-13", 0.03], ["2021-06-14", 0.03], ["2021-06-15", 0.03], ["2021-06-17", 0.03], ["2021-06-18", 0.03], ["2021-06-20", 0.03], ["2021-06-22", 0.03], ["2021-06-23", 0.03], ["2021-06-23", 0.03], ["2021-06-24", 0.03], ["2021-06-25", 0.03], ["2021-06-27", 0.03], ["2021-06-29", 0.03], ["2021-06-29", 0.03], ["2021-06-30", 0.03], ["2021-07-02", 0.03], ["2021-07-03", 0.03], ["2021-07-05", 0.03], ["2021-07-08", 0.03], ["2021-07-11", 0.03], ["2021-07-13", 0.03], ["2021-07-13", 0.03], ["2021-07-14", 0.03], ["2021-07-14", 0.03], ["2021-07-15", 0.03], ["2021-07-16", 0.03], ["2021-07-17", 0.03], ["2021-07-19", 0.03], ["2021-07-19", 0.03], ["2021-07-21", 0.03], ["2021-07-26", 0.03], ["2021-07-27", 0.03], ["2021-07-31", 0.03], ["2021-08-02", 0.03], ["2021-08-03", 0.03], ["2021-08-06", 0.03], ["2021-08-09", 0.035], ["2021-08-12", 0.03], ["2021-08-12", 0.03], ["2021-08-15", 0.03], ["2021-08-17", 0.03], ["2021-08-19", 0.03], ["2021-08-20", 0.03], ["2021-08-22", 0.03], ["2021-08-23", 0.03], ["2021-08-26", 0.02], ["2021-08-27", 0.02], ["2021-08-30", 0.02], ["2021-09-02", 0.02], ["2021-09-03", 0.02], ["2021-09-03", 0.02], ["2021-09-05", 0.02], ["2021-09-08", 0.02], ["2021-09-09", 0.02], ["2021-09-10", 0.02], ["2021-09-11", 0.02], ["2021-09-11", 0.02], ["2021-09-12", 0.02], ["2021-09-12", 0.02], ["2021-09-13", 0.02], ["2021-09-13", 0.02], ["2021-09-13", 0.02], ["2021-09-14", 0.02], ["2021-09-14", 0.02], ["2021-09-15", 0.02], ["2021-09-17", 0.02], ["2021-09-18", 0.02], ["2021-09-21", 0.02], ["2021-09-25", 0.02], ["2021-09-26", 0.02], ["2021-09-27", 0.02], ["2021-09-28", 0.02], ["2021-09-29", 0.02], ["2021-09-30", 0.02], ["2021-09-30", 0.02], ["2021-10-02", 0.02], ["2021-10-05", 0.02], ["2021-10-07", 0.02], ["2021-10-10", 0.02], ["2021-10-10", 0.02], ["2021-10-11", 0.02], ["2021-10-13", 0.01], ["2021-10-14", 0.01], ["2021-10-17", 0.01], ["2021-10-19", 0.01], ["2021-10-21", 0.01], ["2021-10-24", 0.01], ["2021-10-25", 0.01], ["2021-10-27", 0.01], ["2021-10-30", 0.01], ["2021-11-01", 0.01], ["2021-11-02", 0.01], ["2021-11-04", 0.01], ["2021-11-06", 0.01], ["2021-11-09", 0.01], ["2021-11-09", 0.01], ["2021-11-10", 0.01], ["2021-11-11", 0.01], ["2021-11-12", 0.01], ["2021-11-14", 0.01], ["2021-11-15", 0.01], ["2021-11-15", 0.01], ["2021-11-16", 0.01], ["2021-11-17", 0.01], ["2021-11-17", 0.01], ["2021-11-18", 0.01], ["2021-11-19", 0.01], ["2021-11-20", 0.01], ["2021-11-21", 0.01], ["2021-11-22", 0.01], ["2021-11-23", 0.01], ["2021-11-25", 0.01], ["2021-11-26", 0.01], ["2021-11-27", 0.01], ["2021-11-29", 0.01], ["2021-11-30", 0.01], ["2021-11-30", 0.01], ["2021-12-01", 0.01], ["2021-12-01", 0.01], ["2021-12-01", 0.01], ["2021-12-02", 0.01], ["2021-12-02", 0.01], ["2021-12-03", 0.01], ["2021-12-03", 0.01], ["2021-12-03", 0.01], ["2021-12-05", 0.01], ["2021-12-06", 0.01], ["2021-12-06", 0.01], ["2021-12-06", 0.01], ["2021-12-07", 0.01], ["2021-12-07", 0.01], ["2021-12-07", 0.01], ["2021-12-07", 0.01], ["2021-12-08", 0.01], ["2021-12-08", 0.01], ["2021-12-08", 0.01], ["2021-12-09", 0.01], ["2021-12-11", 0.01], ["2021-12-11", 0.0], ["2021-12-12", 0.0], ["2021-12-13", 0.0], ["2021-12-14", 0.0], ["2021-12-14", 0.0], ["2021-12-16", 0.0], ["2021-12-17", 0.0], ["2021-12-18", 0.0], ["2021-12-19", 0.0], ["2021-12-20", 0.0], ["2021-12-20", 0.0], ["2021-12-21", 0.0], ["2021-12-22", 0.0], ["2021-12-23", 0.0], ["2021-12-24", 0.0], ["2021-12-25", 0.0], ["2021-12-25", 0.0], ["2021-12-26", 0.0], ["2021-12-27", 0.0], ["2021-12-27", 0.0], ["2021-12-28", 0.0], ["2021-12-29", 0.0], ["2021-12-29", 0.0], ["2021-12-30", 0.0], ["2021-12-31", 0.0], ["2021-12-31", 0.0], ["2022-01-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1764 | True |
2023-03-15 | Will the New York Times report more than 8,000 new cases of COVID-19 in Virginia for a single day between 10 January 2023 and 15 March 2023? | binary |
<p>After declining steadily since August 2022, daily new cases of COVID-19 began to rise in December 2022 (<a href="https://www.wtvr.com/news/coronavirus/cdc-covid-community-levels-january-5-2022-where-masks-are-recommended-virginia" target="_blank">WTVR</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the New York Times (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/virginia-covid-cases.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, select "Last 90 days" under "New reported cases" and hover your cursor over the chart for data). For 2 January 2023, 6,430 new cases were reported in Virginia.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-03-16 | gjopen | ["https://www-economist-com.nduezproxy.idm.oclc.org/finance-and-economics/2023/02/05/chinas-ultra-fast-economic-recovery", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/dr-leana-wen-slammed-after-admitting-theres-been-overcounting-of-covid-deaths-two-and-a-half-years-late/ar-AA16lw5r", "https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#county-view?list_select_state=Virginia&data-type=CommunityLevels", "https://news.yahoo.com/david-kessler-top-health-official-015840986.html", "https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/virginia?view=infections-testing&tab=trend&test=positive_tests", "https://www.huffpost.com/entry/xbb-covid-variant-symptoms_l_63b74525e4b0cbfd55e7c6ec", "https://worldpopulationreview.com/states/virginia/counties"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2023-01-10 | 0.0 | [["2023-01-10", 0.37], ["2023-01-10", 0.51], ["2023-01-10", 0.4567], ["2023-01-11", 0.5175], ["2023-01-11", 0.432], ["2023-01-11", 0.525], ["2023-01-11", 0.5214], ["2023-01-11", 0.4613], ["2023-01-11", 0.49], ["2023-01-12", 0.472], ["2023-01-12", 0.52], ["2023-01-12", 0.5082], ["2023-01-12", 0.4992], ["2023-01-13", 0.4958], ["2023-01-14", 0.435], ["2023-01-14", 0.426], ["2023-01-14", 0.422], ["2023-01-14", 0.326], ["2023-01-15", 0.299], ["2023-01-15", 0.289], ["2023-01-15", 0.293], ["2023-01-15", 0.223], ["2023-01-15", 0.195], ["2023-01-16", 0.1], ["2023-01-16", 0.139], ["2023-01-16", 0.1318], ["2023-01-16", 0.1483], ["2023-01-16", 0.1946], ["2023-01-17", 0.185], ["2023-01-17", 0.1838], ["2023-01-17", 0.1862], ["2023-01-17", 0.1757], ["2023-01-17", 0.1873], ["2023-01-17", 0.1953], ["2023-01-17", 0.1913], ["2023-01-18", 0.1956], ["2023-01-19", 0.2243], ["2023-01-19", 0.205], ["2023-01-20", 0.2367], ["2023-01-20", 0.1775], ["2023-01-22", 0.1783], ["2023-01-23", 0.1733], ["2023-01-24", 0.1733], ["2023-01-24", 0.1667], ["2023-01-24", 0.14], ["2023-01-25", 0.1325], ["2023-01-25", 0.13], ["2023-01-25", 0.1733], ["2023-01-25", 0.1575], ["2023-01-26", 0.1542], ["2023-01-26", 0.1475], ["2023-01-26", 0.1377], ["2023-01-27", 0.0831], ["2023-01-27", 0.0823], ["2023-01-27", 0.08], ["2023-01-27", 0.0808], ["2023-01-27", 0.0823], ["2023-01-28", 0.09], ["2023-01-28", 0.0892], ["2023-01-28", 0.0869], ["2023-01-28", 0.0838], ["2023-01-31", 0.0362], ["2023-01-31", 0.0462], ["2023-01-31", 0.0438], ["2023-01-31", 0.0438], ["2023-01-31", 0.0731], ["2023-01-31", 0.0677], ["2023-01-31", 0.0685], ["2023-01-31", 0.0746], ["2023-01-31", 0.0915], ["2023-01-31", 0.0915], ["2023-02-01", 0.1414], ["2023-02-01", 0.0864], ["2023-02-02", 0.0836], ["2023-02-03", 0.065], ["2023-02-04", 0.0636], ["2023-02-04", 0.0636], ["2023-02-05", 0.0621], ["2023-02-07", 0.06], ["2023-02-07", 0.0571], ["2023-02-07", 0.0571], ["2023-02-07", 0.055], ["2023-02-07", 0.0514], ["2023-02-07", 0.0514], ["2023-02-09", 0.0564], ["2023-02-10", 0.0407], ["2023-02-10", 0.0286], ["2023-02-12", 0.0314], ["2023-02-12", 0.032], ["2023-02-13", 0.032], ["2023-02-14", 0.0367], ["2023-02-14", 0.0373], ["2023-02-15", 0.0327], ["2023-02-16", 0.0327], ["2023-02-16", 0.0313], ["2023-02-17", 0.03], ["2023-02-17", 0.03], ["2023-02-20", 0.03], ["2023-02-20", 0.0313], ["2023-02-21", 0.0287], ["2023-02-21", 0.028], ["2023-02-21", 0.0287], ["2023-02-21", 0.0287], ["2023-02-21", 0.0267], ["2023-02-21", 0.0267], ["2023-02-21", 0.0273], ["2023-02-22", 0.0267], ["2023-02-23", 0.0267], ["2023-02-26", 0.026], ["2023-02-26", 0.0253], ["2023-02-26", 0.016], ["2023-02-27", 0.0153], ["2023-02-27", 0.0144], ["2023-02-27", 0.015], ["2023-02-28", 0.015], ["2023-02-28", 0.015], ["2023-02-28", 0.0131], ["2023-02-28", 0.075], ["2023-03-01", 0.075], ["2023-03-02", 0.0744], ["2023-03-03", 0.0731], ["2023-03-03", 0.0706], ["2023-03-04", 0.07], ["2023-03-04", 0.07], ["2023-03-06", 0.07], ["2023-03-06", 0.07], ["2023-03-07", 0.0694], ["2023-03-07", 0.0653], ["2023-03-07", 0.0653], ["2023-03-08", 0.0653], ["2023-03-08", 0.0617], ["2023-03-08", 0.0611], ["2023-03-09", 0.0606], ["2023-03-09", 0.0606], ["2023-03-09", 0.0606], ["2023-03-10", 0.0606], ["2023-03-11", 0.06], ["2023-03-11", 0.0594], ["2023-03-12", 0.0594], ["2023-03-13", 0.0594], ["2023-03-13", 0.0578], ["2023-03-13", 0.0567], ["2023-03-14", 0.0011], ["2023-03-14", 0.0022], ["2023-03-14", 0.0017], ["2023-03-14", 0.0017], ["2023-03-14", 0.0017], ["2023-03-14", 0.0017], ["2023-03-15", 0.0017], ["2023-03-15", 0.0017]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2702 | True |
2022-12-01 | Will the UK or EU trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol before 1 December 2022? | binary |
<p>The Protocol is an agreement made during Brexit negotiations intended to avoid a "hard border" between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, in which Article 16 governs either party taking unilateral action (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-53724381" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/16/northern-ireland-protocol-uk-threatens-to-scrap-parts-of-brexit-deal.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/07/truss-sunak-contest-leaves-brussels-pessimistic-about-relations-with-uk-brexit-eu" target="_blank">Guardian</a>). The question would close upon the UK or EU notifying the Joint Committee under the terms of Annex 7 of the Protocol (<a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/840230/Revised_Protocol_to_the_Withdrawal_Agreement.pdf" target="_blank">Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2022-12-01 | gjopen | ["https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/26/liz-truss-may-trigger-article-16-days-after-becoming-pm-amid-brexit-row", "https://www.ft.com/content/24b72bdc-7bda-4248-9708-7cbc3a4680a7", "https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-63138010.amp", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_Protocol_Bill", "https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-62818906", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/08/white-house-warns-truss-over-efforts-to-undo-northern-ireland-protocol", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/12/eu-reduce-northern-ireland-border-checks-brexit-uk", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/sep/07/liz-truss-cabinet-news-pm-therese-coffey-uk-politics-live"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2022-08-26 | 0.0 | [["2022-08-26", 1.0], ["2022-08-26", 0.5], ["2022-08-26", 0.5], ["2022-08-26", 0.375], ["2022-08-26", 0.48], ["2022-08-27", 0.485], ["2022-08-27", 0.4814], ["2022-08-27", 0.44], ["2022-08-27", 0.4189], ["2022-08-28", 0.4167], ["2022-08-28", 0.38], ["2022-08-28", 0.37], ["2022-08-28", 0.3709], ["2022-08-28", 0.3633], ["2022-08-28", 0.3354], ["2022-08-29", 0.3593], ["2022-08-29", 0.3353], ["2022-08-29", 0.3144], ["2022-08-29", 0.3275], ["2022-08-29", 0.3494], ["2022-08-29", 0.3506], ["2022-08-29", 0.364], ["2022-08-30", 0.3077], ["2022-08-31", 0.333], ["2022-08-31", 0.35], ["2022-08-31", 0.3655], ["2022-08-31", 0.3392], ["2022-08-31", 0.3558], ["2022-09-01", 0.358], ["2022-09-01", 0.338], ["2022-09-02", 0.393], ["2022-09-02", 0.392], ["2022-09-03", 0.361], ["2022-09-04", 0.376], ["2022-09-04", 0.373], ["2022-09-05", 0.3518], ["2022-09-05", 0.3464], ["2022-09-05", 0.3691], ["2022-09-06", 0.3655], ["2022-09-06", 0.3818], ["2022-09-07", 0.3409], ["2022-09-07", 0.3045], ["2022-09-07", 0.2991], ["2022-09-07", 0.2518], ["2022-09-08", 0.2473], ["2022-09-08", 0.2382], ["2022-09-09", 0.2658], ["2022-09-10", 0.2633], ["2022-09-11", 0.2467], ["2022-09-11", 0.2458], ["2022-09-12", 0.2392], ["2022-09-12", 0.1985], ["2022-09-12", 0.1977], ["2022-09-12", 0.1877], ["2022-09-13", 0.1808], ["2022-09-13", 0.1714], ["2022-09-13", 0.1707], ["2022-09-13", 0.1707], ["2022-09-13", 0.1621], ["2022-09-13", 0.1564], ["2022-09-13", 0.1557], ["2022-09-14", 0.2021], ["2022-09-14", 0.1664], ["2022-09-15", 0.19], ["2022-09-15", 0.1893], ["2022-09-17", 0.1829], ["2022-09-17", 0.1836], ["2022-09-19", 0.1486], ["2022-09-19", 0.1486], ["2022-09-20", 0.1236], ["2022-09-21", 0.1179], ["2022-09-21", 0.0779], ["2022-09-22", 0.0721], ["2022-09-22", 0.0957], ["2022-09-22", 0.095], ["2022-09-22", 0.0921], ["2022-09-22", 0.0914], ["2022-09-23", 0.0943], ["2022-09-24", 0.0936], ["2022-09-24", 0.0936], ["2022-09-25", 0.0921], ["2022-09-26", 0.0886], ["2022-09-26", 0.0847], ["2022-09-26", 0.0813], ["2022-09-27", 0.0733], ["2022-09-27", 0.0733], ["2022-09-28", 0.0787], ["2022-09-28", 0.0713], ["2022-09-28", 0.0693], ["2022-09-28", 0.0653], ["2022-10-01", 0.0613], ["2022-10-01", 0.0587], ["2022-10-02", 0.058], ["2022-10-03", 0.0607], ["2022-10-03", 0.054], ["2022-10-04", 0.054], ["2022-10-05", 0.052], ["2022-10-05", 0.0493], ["2022-10-06", 0.0493], ["2022-10-07", 0.046], ["2022-10-08", 0.0413], ["2022-10-08", 0.04], ["2022-10-08", 0.0393], ["2022-10-10", 0.0393], ["2022-10-10", 0.0369], ["2022-10-11", 0.0369], ["2022-10-12", 0.0356], ["2022-10-17", 0.0356], ["2022-10-18", 0.0356], ["2022-10-18", 0.0375], ["2022-10-21", 0.1], ["2022-10-22", 0.0375], ["2022-10-22", 0.0375], ["2022-10-24", 0.035], ["2022-10-25", 0.0325], ["2022-10-25", 0.0238], ["2022-10-26", 0.0256], ["2022-10-28", 0.0244], ["2022-10-31", 0.0406], ["2022-11-02", 0.0347], ["2022-11-04", 0.0341], ["2022-11-05", 0.0365], ["2022-11-05", 0.0359], ["2022-11-06", 0.0347], ["2022-11-06", 0.0341], ["2022-11-07", 0.0341], ["2022-11-09", 0.0312], ["2022-11-09", 0.0329], ["2022-11-10", 0.0312], ["2022-11-10", 0.0294], ["2022-11-10", 0.0294], ["2022-11-11", 0.0294], ["2022-11-13", 0.0294], ["2022-11-14", 0.0279], ["2022-11-15", 0.0274], ["2022-11-16", 0.0274], ["2022-11-17", 0.0232], ["2022-11-17", 0.0226], ["2022-11-18", 0.0226], ["2022-11-20", 0.0247], ["2022-11-23", 0.0247], ["2022-11-24", 0.0237], ["2022-11-24", 0.0221], ["2022-11-25", 0.0226], ["2022-11-25", 0.0226], ["2022-11-25", 0.0226], ["2022-11-26", 0.0215], ["2022-11-26", 0.0065], ["2022-11-26", 0.0065], ["2022-11-28", 0.0065], ["2022-11-28", 0.0045], ["2022-11-28", 0.0043], ["2022-11-28", 0.0043], ["2022-11-28", 0.0041], ["2022-11-28", 0.0041], ["2022-11-29", 0.0036], ["2022-11-29", 0.0032], ["2022-11-30", 0.0032], ["2022-11-30", 0.0032], ["2022-11-30", 0.0032], ["2022-12-01", 0.003], ["2022-12-01", 0.003], ["2022-12-01", 0.0029], ["2022-12-01", 0.0029]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2525 | True |
2022-01-08 | Before 8 January 2022, will Facebook allow Donald Trump to post on Facebook and/or Instagram from any of his verified accounts? | binary |
<p>On 5 May 2021, Facebook’s Oversight Board upheld a January decision to keep Donald Trump from posting content on his Facebook page and Instagram account, but criticized the current state of Facebook regulations as to content rules and gave the company six months to review those rules (<a href="https://oversightboard.com/decision/FB-691QAMHJ/" target="_blank">Oversight Board</a>, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/05/07/994436847/what-we-learned-about-facebook-from-trump-decision" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/facebook-oversight-board-member-trump-ban-rules-michael-mcconnell" target="_blank">Fox Business</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-01-10 | gjopen | ["https://about.fb.com/news/2021/06/facebook-response-to-oversight-board-recommendations-trump/", "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/oct/02/donald-trump-asks-florida-judge-to-force-twitter-to-reinstate-account", "https://www.theverge.com/2021/6/3/22474738/facebook-ending-political-figure-exemption-moderation-policy", "https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/far-personality-alex-jones-banned-015412444.html", "https://www.facebook.com/zuck/posts/10112681480907401", "https://www.economist.com/the-world-this-week/2021/06/12/business-this-week?fsrc=scn%2Ftw%2Fte%2Frfd%2Fpe", "https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-expects-to-be-reinstated-as-president-august-2021-6", "https://twitter.com/SuspendThePres/status/1347702888970084354", "https://www.inc.com/bill-murphy-jr/facebook-just-announced-its-banning-7-of-its-most-dangerous-accounts-heres-full-list-why-they-did-it.html", "https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/4897949001", "https://podcasts.apple.com/cr/podcast/bonus-understanding-facebook-oversight-board-decision/id1460055316?i=1000520470444&l=en", "https://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/facebook-inc/totals?id=D000033563", "https://about.fb.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Facebook-Responses-to-Oversight-Board-Recommendations-in-Trump-Case.pdf", "https://www.npr.org/2021/05/05/987679590/facebook-justified-in-banning-donald-trump-social-medias-oversight-board-rules", "https://www.statista.com/statistics/264810/number-of-monthly-active-facebook-users-worldwide/", "https://twitter.com/SuspendThePres", "https://www.npr.org/2021/06/04/1003284948/trump-suspended-from-facebook-for-2-years", "https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/facebook-twitter-sue-florida-censorship-deplatforming-law-ron-desantis-2021-6%3famp", "https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/mark-zuckerberg-alex-jones-facebook-ban-soften-lenient-report-2021-2%3famp", "https://thehill.com/policy/technology/556884-facebook-suspending-trump-until-at-least-2023", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1282860", "https://oversightboard.com/news/226612455899839-oversight-board-upholds-former-president-trump-s-suspension-finds-facebook-failed-to-impose-proper-penalty/", "https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vice.com/amp/en/article/jgqyvg/facebook-helped-alex-jones-share-prepare-for-war-posts-before-the-capitol-riots", "https://www.thedailybeast.com/facebook-earned-dollar220k-from-trump-pac-ads-after-banning-trump-himself", "https://techcrunch.com/2021/09/21/the-oversight-board-wants-facebook-to-explain-its-controversial-rules-for-vips/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAEZeDqmLpSgCt9GWIeNkrREIqxbzf-po8cpz-oCpKAw_nuZ6SAwhuji6CShVhA2bmksTo9kFrQG9eOoGAuW7Blz1oW7KoIQbdkm0Yjzs0ScGnQas3MoqJjQQGVTI-SND4WR_jrHkod6KaucKe_hV954rbK6uChq1z1uQOfVBFive"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2021-05-14 | 0.0 | [["2021-05-14", 0.0], ["2021-05-14", 0.4], ["2021-05-14", 0.8], ["2021-05-14", 0.405], ["2021-05-14", 0.8], ["2021-05-14", 0.405], ["2021-05-14", 0.05], ["2021-05-14", 0.03], ["2021-05-14", 0.05], ["2021-05-14", 0.325], ["2021-05-14", 0.6], ["2021-05-15", 0.33], ["2021-05-15", 0.1], ["2021-05-15", 0.3], ["2021-05-15", 0.1], ["2021-05-15", 0.125], ["2021-05-16", 0.1], ["2021-05-16", 0.125], ["2021-05-16", 0.15], ["2021-05-16", 0.125], ["2021-05-16", 0.1], ["2021-05-16", 0.125], ["2021-05-16", 0.15], ["2021-05-16", 0.125], ["2021-05-16", 0.15], ["2021-05-16", 0.125], ["2021-05-16", 0.125], ["2021-05-16", 0.15], ["2021-05-16", 0.175], ["2021-05-16", 0.2], ["2021-05-16", 0.175], ["2021-05-16", 0.2], ["2021-05-16", 0.2], ["2021-05-16", 0.175], ["2021-05-16", 0.15], ["2021-05-17", 0.175], ["2021-05-17", 0.2], ["2021-05-17", 0.2], ["2021-05-17", 0.2], ["2021-05-17", 0.2], ["2021-05-17", 0.2], ["2021-05-17", 0.2], ["2021-05-17", 0.2], ["2021-05-17", 0.2], ["2021-05-18", 0.2], ["2021-05-18", 0.2], ["2021-05-18", 0.2], ["2021-05-18", 0.205], ["2021-05-18", 0.23], ["2021-05-18", 0.205], ["2021-05-18", 0.2], ["2021-05-18", 0.2], ["2021-05-18", 0.205], ["2021-05-19", 0.21], ["2021-05-19", 0.23], ["2021-05-19", 0.23], ["2021-05-20", 0.25], ["2021-05-20", 0.25], ["2021-05-20", 0.25], ["2021-05-20", 0.25], ["2021-05-20", 0.25], ["2021-05-21", 0.25], ["2021-05-21", 0.25], ["2021-05-21", 0.25], ["2021-05-21", 0.25], ["2021-05-22", 0.25], ["2021-05-22", 0.25], ["2021-05-24", 0.25], ["2021-05-24", 0.25], ["2021-05-24", 0.25], ["2021-05-25", 0.25], ["2021-05-25", 0.25], ["2021-05-26", 0.25], ["2021-05-26", 0.25], ["2021-05-26", 0.25], ["2021-05-27", 0.25], ["2021-05-28", 0.25], ["2021-05-29", 0.25], ["2021-05-29", 0.25], ["2021-05-29", 0.225], ["2021-05-29", 0.25], ["2021-05-29", 0.25], ["2021-05-29", 0.25], ["2021-05-30", 0.25], ["2021-05-30", 0.25], ["2021-06-01", 0.25], ["2021-06-02", 0.25], ["2021-06-02", 0.25], ["2021-06-02", 0.275], ["2021-06-03", 0.275], ["2021-06-04", 0.275], ["2021-06-04", 0.275], ["2021-06-04", 0.275], ["2021-06-04", 0.215], ["2021-06-04", 0.14], ["2021-06-04", 0.14], ["2021-06-04", 0.1], ["2021-06-04", 0.1], ["2021-06-04", 0.1], ["2021-06-04", 0.1], ["2021-06-04", 0.075], ["2021-06-04", 0.03], ["2021-06-04", 0.05], ["2021-06-04", 0.03], ["2021-06-04", 0.03], ["2021-06-04", 0.01], ["2021-06-04", 0.01], ["2021-06-04", 0.01], ["2021-06-04", 0.01], ["2021-06-05", 0.01], ["2021-06-05", 0.01], ["2021-06-05", 0.01], ["2021-06-05", 0.0], ["2021-06-05", 0.0], ["2021-06-05", 0.0], ["2021-06-06", 0.0], 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2020-12-31 | Will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law before 1 January 2021? | binary |
<p>Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs (<a href="https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation" target="_blank">The Hill</a>, <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf" target="_blank">Federation of American Scientists</a>, <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388" target="_blank">Congress.gov (House Bill)</a>, <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885" target="_blank">Congress.gov (Senate Bill)</a>). Legislators are renewing efforts this term, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a "bump in the road" (<a href="https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic" target="_blank">The Hill</a>, <a href="https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/" target="_blank">Legal Reader</a>). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial.</p><p>This question is the shorter-term companion of question #1659. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If this shorter-term question closes Yes, then the longer-term question will be voided.<br></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-01-04 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2020-06-15 | 0.0 | [["2020-06-16", 0.0], ["2020-06-16", 0.4], ["2020-06-16", 0.3], ["2020-06-16", 0.225], ["2020-06-16", 0.25], ["2020-06-16", 0.2], ["2020-06-16", 0.25], ["2020-06-16", 0.2], ["2020-06-16", 0.15], ["2020-06-16", 0.125], ["2020-06-16", 0.17], ["2020-06-16", 0.125], ["2020-06-16", 0.075], ["2020-06-16", 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2023-01-15 | Before 15 January 2023, will federal legislation that would force the social media app TikTok to cease operating in the US become law? | binary |
<p>Amid continuing concerns that TikTok could be used by the Chinese government to spy on Americans, a bill was introduced in Congress that would effectively ban the app from being used in the US (<a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2022-12-13/u-s-lawmakers-unveil-bipartisan-bid-to-ban-chinas-tiktok" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.rubio.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/press-releases?ID=D1C2E147-3A23-4F49-AC27-268572AABDCD" target="_blank">Rubio.Senate.gov</a>, <a href="https://theweek.com/tiktok/1019108/will-america-ban-tiktok" target="_blank">The Week</a>). The date the legislation would take effect would be immaterial, and the exact duration of TikTok not being able to operate in the US would be immaterial. The legislation need not explicitly name TikTok to count so long as the legislation's applicability to TikTok is clear.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-01-16 | gjopen | ["https://youtu.be/PDSwTDGvqv0", "https://www.dexerto.com/entertainment/united-states-tiktok-app-ban-1966889/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-lawmakers-unveil-bipartisan-bid-ban-chinas-tiktok-2022-12-13/", "https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/us-fcc-bans-equipment-sales-imports-zte-huawei-over-national-security-risk-2022-11-25/", "https://mashable.com/article/tiktok-spying-internal-report-us-users", "https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/us-lawmaker-introduces-bill-to-ban-chinese-app-tiktok-on-govt-devices-122090700799_1.html", "https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/15/tech/senate-tiktok-ban-devices/index.html", "https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/us-fbi-director-says-tiktok-poses-national-security-concerns-2022-11-15/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/pelosi-backs-adding-tiktok-government-device-ban-funding-bill-2022-12-16/", "https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2022-12-13/u-s-lawmakers-unveil-bipartisan-bid-to-ban-chinas-tiktok", "https://rational360.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/2022-Combined-Congressional-Calendar.pdf", "https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-treasury-yellen-twitter-should-be-held-certain-standards-content-2022-11-30/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/north-dakota-iowa-join-other-us-states-banning-tiktok-state-owned-devices-2022-12-14/", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/qai/2022/11/03/is-a-tiktok-ban-in-the-united-states-possible/?sh=2c650cc77eaa", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/alabama-utah-become-latest-us-states-ban-tiktok-state-devices-2022-12-13/", "https://www.nytimes.com/wirecutter/blog/state-of-privacy-laws-in-us/", "https://www.axios.com/2022/08/04/online-privacy-bill-roadblocks-congress", "https://apnews.com/article/global-trade-ap-top-news-politics-asia-business-719d8c83f689929c9c9d8c9aa5593fc8"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2022-12-16 | 0.0 | [["2022-12-16", 0.0], ["2022-12-16", 0.0], ["2022-12-16", 0.0833], ["2022-12-16", 0.0625], ["2022-12-16", 0.05], ["2022-12-16", 0.05], ["2022-12-16", 0.0467], ["2022-12-16", 0.04], ["2022-12-17", 0.035], ["2022-12-17", 0.0311], ["2022-12-17", 0.028], ["2022-12-17", 0.0255], ["2022-12-17", 0.0275], ["2022-12-17", 0.0254], ["2022-12-17", 0.0236], ["2022-12-17", 0.0593], ["2022-12-17", 0.0587], ["2022-12-18", 0.055], ["2022-12-18", 0.0547], ["2022-12-18", 0.0739], ["2022-12-18", 0.07], ["2022-12-18", 0.0675], ["2022-12-18", 0.0648], ["2022-12-18", 0.0623], ["2022-12-19", 0.0617], ["2022-12-19", 0.0596], ["2022-12-19", 0.0576], ["2022-12-19", 0.0554], ["2022-12-19", 0.0559], ["2022-12-19", 0.0539], ["2022-12-19", 0.0555], ["2022-12-19", 0.0562], ["2022-12-19", 0.0547], ["2022-12-19", 0.0529], ["2022-12-19", 0.0529], ["2022-12-19", 0.0529], ["2022-12-19", 0.0514], ["2022-12-20", 0.0541], ["2022-12-20", 0.0617], ["2022-12-20", 0.06], ["2022-12-20", 0.058], ["2022-12-20", 0.0558], ["2022-12-20", 0.0542], ["2022-12-21", 0.053], ["2022-12-21", 0.0554], ["2022-12-21", 0.0569], ["2022-12-21", 0.0581], ["2022-12-21", 0.0592], ["2022-12-21", 0.0574], ["2022-12-21", 0.0458], ["2022-12-21", 0.0308], ["2022-12-21", 0.0264], ["2022-12-21", 0.0254], ["2022-12-21", 0.0256], ["2022-12-22", 0.0252], ["2022-12-22", 0.0246], ["2022-12-22", 0.0237], ["2022-12-22", 0.0289], ["2022-12-22", 0.0304], ["2022-12-22", 0.0304], ["2022-12-22", 0.03], ["2022-12-22", 0.0296], ["2022-12-22", 0.0309], ["2022-12-23", 0.0335], ["2022-12-23", 0.034], ["2022-12-23", 0.0324], ["2022-12-23", 0.0319], ["2022-12-23", 0.031], ["2022-12-23", 0.0295], ["2022-12-24", 0.0291], ["2022-12-24", 0.0286], ["2022-12-25", 0.0286], ["2022-12-26", 0.0241], ["2022-12-26", 0.0241], ["2022-12-26", 0.0245], ["2022-12-27", 0.0245], ["2022-12-27", 0.0245], ["2022-12-27", 0.0235], ["2022-12-27", 0.0226], ["2022-12-28", 0.0135], ["2022-12-28", 0.013], ["2022-12-28", 0.0217], ["2022-12-28", 0.0229], ["2022-12-28", 0.0225], ["2022-12-29", 0.0217], ["2022-12-29", 0.0188], ["2022-12-29", 0.0188], ["2022-12-29", 0.0188], ["2022-12-29", 0.0183], ["2022-12-30", 0.0183], ["2022-12-30", 0.0183], ["2022-12-30", 0.0176], ["2022-12-31", 0.0176], ["2022-12-31", 0.0164], ["2023-01-01", 0.0096], ["2023-01-02", 0.0092], ["2023-01-02", 0.0081], ["2023-01-02", 0.0077], ["2023-01-02", 0.0073], ["2023-01-02", 0.0073], ["2023-01-02", 0.007], ["2023-01-02", 0.0067], ["2023-01-03", 0.0074], ["2023-01-03", 0.0093], ["2023-01-04", 0.0078], ["2023-01-04", 0.0074], ["2023-01-04", 0.0074], ["2023-01-04", 0.0071], ["2023-01-04", 0.0071], ["2023-01-04", 0.0071], ["2023-01-05", 0.0071], ["2023-01-06", 0.0075], ["2023-01-06", 0.0072], ["2023-01-06", 0.0072], ["2023-01-06", 0.0072], ["2023-01-07", 0.007], ["2023-01-07", 0.007], ["2023-01-08", 0.007], ["2023-01-09", 0.0063], ["2023-01-09", 0.0352], ["2023-01-09", 0.0352], ["2023-01-09", 0.0061], ["2023-01-09", 0.0184], ["2023-01-09", 0.0216], ["2023-01-09", 0.0216], 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2022-07-01 | Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 July 2022? | binary |
<p>Tensions continue to flare along the disputed border between India and China, with lethal clashes in June 2020 (<a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-06-16/dozens-killed-as-india-china-face-off-in-first-deadly-clash-in-decades" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55793112" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/india-china-army-commanders-meet-defuse-tensions-80506130" target="_blank">ABC News</a>). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.</p><p>
</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2022-07-01 | gjopen | ["https://www.theweek.in/news/india/2022/01/04/indian-trrops-hoist-tricolour-galwan-counters-china-claims.html", "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/03/india-china-border-dispute-unlikely-to-end-anytime-soon-nirupama-rao.html", "https://twitter.com/tanvi_madan/status/1507353245878034437", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/19/world/asia/china-india-clash.html?searchResultPosition=18", "https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/a-3d-deep-dive-into-the-india-china-border-dispute/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VzABv84gews", "https://www.economist.com/asia/2021/11/11/how-the-game-of-go-explains-chinas-aggression-towards-india", "https://www.telegraphindia.com/india/intelligence-inputs-suggest-chinese-army-planning-fresh-incursions/cid/1860710", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/11/india-china-army-talks-border-tensions-ladakh", "https://thediplomat.com/2021/10/disquiet-on-indias-northern-front/", "https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-japan-asia-india-china-e71b3f02f8bd30a36dac42309896a115", "https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/olympics/2022/02/03/india-skip-2022-beijing-olympics-opening-ceremony-torchbearer/6658366001/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/19/world/asia/india-china-border.html", "https://www.ucanews.com/news/china-india-lash-out-after-deadlock-in-himalayan-border-talks/94495", "https://www.dw.com/en/japan-india-urge-peace-in-ukraine-despite-differences-on-russia/a-61187186", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Indian_border_dispute#Dispute_resolution_mechanism", "https://www.voanews.com/a/india-china-ladakh/6267352.html", "https://www.scmp.com/video/asia/3153330/india-boosts-military-presence-border-talks-china-remain-stalled", "https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3164979/china-india-border-pla-hands-teen-indian-army-after-he-went", "https://supchina.com/2022/04/28/china-and-india-are-more-different-than-they-are-aligned/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-china-trade-blame-break-down-border-talks-2021-10-11/", "https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/14th-round-of-india-china-corps-commander-talks-likely-on-jan-12-122010701239_1.html", "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/how-india-can-play-a-role-in-rebalancing-indo-pacific-in-case-ukraine-war-spills-over/articleshow/90308127.cms;"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2021-10-19 | 0.0 | [["2021-10-20", 0.05], ["2021-10-20", 0.525], ["2021-10-20", 0.49], ["2021-10-20", 0.745], ["2021-10-20", 0.49], ["2021-10-20", 0.27], ["2021-10-20", 0.05], ["2021-10-20", 0.11], ["2021-10-20", 0.05], ["2021-10-20", 0.05], ["2021-10-21", 0.05], ["2021-10-21", 0.05], ["2021-10-21", 0.05], ["2021-10-21", 0.05], ["2021-10-21", 0.05], ["2021-10-21", 0.05], ["2021-10-21", 0.05], ["2021-10-21", 0.05], ["2021-10-21", 0.05], 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["2021-10-29", 0.14], ["2021-10-29", 0.13], ["2021-10-29", 0.135], ["2021-10-29", 0.1], ["2021-10-29", 0.1], ["2021-10-29", 0.1], ["2021-10-29", 0.08], ["2021-10-30", 0.12], ["2021-10-31", 0.12], ["2021-11-01", 0.12], ["2021-11-03", 0.15], ["2021-11-05", 0.135], ["2021-11-05", 0.135], ["2021-11-06", 0.15], ["2021-11-07", 0.135], ["2021-11-07", 0.135], ["2021-11-07", 0.15], ["2021-11-08", 0.15], ["2021-11-08", 0.15], ["2021-11-09", 0.15], ["2021-11-10", 0.135], ["2021-11-10", 0.175], ["2021-11-10", 0.135], ["2021-11-13", 0.135], ["2021-11-13", 0.135], ["2021-11-14", 0.135], ["2021-11-16", 0.135], ["2021-11-17", 0.13], ["2021-11-17", 0.12], ["2021-11-18", 0.12], ["2021-11-19", 0.12], ["2021-11-22", 0.13], ["2021-11-23", 0.12], ["2021-11-24", 0.12], ["2021-11-25", 0.12], ["2021-11-28", 0.12], ["2021-11-28", 0.12], ["2021-11-28", 0.12], ["2021-11-28", 0.12], ["2021-11-29", 0.12], ["2021-11-30", 0.12], ["2021-12-01", 0.12], ["2021-12-01", 0.13], ["2021-12-01", 0.13], ["2021-12-02", 0.13], 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2022-05-01 | Will the FAO Food Price Index for April 2022 reach or exceed 150.0? | binary |
<p>The question will be suspended on 30 April 2022 and the outcome determined using data as provided by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (<a href="https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/" target="_blank">FAO</a>, see table near bottom of page). The value for April 2021 was 122.1.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-05-06 | gjopen | ["https://www.reuters.com/world/food-prices-hit-record-high-february-un-agency-says-2022-03-04/", "https://www.macrotrends.net/2534/wheat-prices-historical-chart-data", "https://www.investing.com/commodities/class-iii-milk-futures-historical-data", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1424240", "https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/eriksherman/2022/03/29/food-inflation-will-hit-millions-hard/?sh=59359ae132d6", "https://app.datacamp.com/workspace/w/9cef92f2-009c-4572-b17e-b5db07bea220", "https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/cb4479en.pdf", "https://www.investing.com/commodities/us-sugar-no11-historical-data", "https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/29/world/ukraine-russia-war/the-chief-of-the-un-food-agency-warns-of-a-crisis-not-seen-since-world-war-ii", "https://www.investing.com/commodities/rapeseed-historical-data", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1424151", "https://www.isosugar.org/prices.php?pricerange=2022-02-01", "https://www.investing.com/commodities/us-soybean-oil-historical-data", "https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/csdb/en/", "https://iussp.org/sites/default/files/Shirley_Mustafa_FFPI.pdf", "https://www.marketplace.org/2022/02/17/oil-prices-surge-vegetable-oil-that-is/", "https://www.investing.com/commodities/rough-rice-historical-data", "https://www.investing.com/commodities/us-corn-historical-data", "https://www.igc.int/en/markets/marketinfo-goi.aspx", "https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/fao-food-price-index-posts-significant-leap-in-march/en", "https://www.investing.com/commodities/palm-oil-historical-data", "https://www.oilworld.biz/t/publications/weekly", "https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex", "https://www.statista.com/statistics/263937/vegetable-oils-global-consumption/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2022-03-09 | 1.0 | [["2022-03-15", 0.93], ["2022-03-15", 0.465], ["2022-03-15", 0.93], ["2022-03-15", 0.94], ["2022-03-15", 0.93], ["2022-03-15", 0.77], ["2022-03-15", 0.61], ["2022-03-15", 0.495], ["2022-03-15", 0.61], ["2022-03-15", 0.68], ["2022-03-15", 0.75], ["2022-03-15", 0.725], ["2022-03-15", 0.7], ["2022-03-15", 0.655], ["2022-03-15", 0.7], ["2022-03-16", 0.655], ["2022-03-16", 0.61], ["2022-03-16", 0.655], ["2022-03-16", 0.61], ["2022-03-16", 0.605], ["2022-03-16", 0.6], ["2022-03-16", 0.575], ["2022-03-16", 0.56], ["2022-03-16", 0.6], ["2022-03-16", 0.6], ["2022-03-16", 0.6], ["2022-03-16", 0.605], ["2022-03-16", 0.61], ["2022-03-16", 0.61], ["2022-03-16", 0.635], ["2022-03-16", 0.66], ["2022-03-16", 0.68], ["2022-03-16", 0.66], ["2022-03-16", 0.68], ["2022-03-16", 0.7], ["2022-03-16", 0.68], ["2022-03-16", 0.7], ["2022-03-16", 0.68], ["2022-03-16", 0.66], ["2022-03-16", 0.68], ["2022-03-16", 0.66], ["2022-03-16", 0.66], 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2022-12-01 | Between 29 April 2022 and 30 November 2022, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device? | binary |
<p>After launching an ICBM for the first time since 2017, there are concerns that North Korea may test another nuclear weapon (<a href="https://apnews.com/article/south-korea-north-korea-fdb416abc13beb76fb719d3452f97828" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/31/politics/north-korea-underground-nuclear-test-concerns/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>). North Korea's most recent nuclear detonation was in 2017 (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41174689" target="_blank">BBC</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2022-12-01 | gjopen | ["https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20221104001654325?section=nk/nk", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/leaked-documents-reveal-russia-s-plan-to-invade-japan/ss-AA14MbG4?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=3be662ac0472449f9795743e275dd4c0#image=2", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/11/23/north-korea-nuclear-test-asia-kim-jong-un/", "https://twitter.com/YonhapNews/status/1593068935704088576", "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/north-koreas-kim-says-launch-new-icbm-calls-more-strategic-weapons-kcna-2022-11-18/", "https://www.nknews.org/2022/11/how-north-koreans-are-watching-the-2022-world-cup/", "https://discord.gg/9HYucBxK", "https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-next-north-korean-nuclear", "https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2022/11/103_340681.html", "https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20221116009151325?section=nk/nk", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests", "https://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-nukes-for-children-kim-jong-un-daughter-reveal-2022-11", "https://twitter.com/TCG_CrisisRisks/status/1593066534158864384", "https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20221116009151325", "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/north-korea-fires-missile-after-threatening-fiercer-step", "https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/17/asia/north-korea-ballistic-missile-friday-intl-hnk/index.html", "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/north-korea-nuclear-weapons-intelligence-matters/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/north-korea-says-its-military-response-will-become-more-furious-2022-11-17/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/north-korea-fires-ballistic-missile-south-korea-military-says-2022-11-18/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1548165", "https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/kim-jong-un-reveals-daughter-north-korea-ballistic-missile-test-rcna58000", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/18/north-korea-has-launched-suspected-icbm-intercontinental-ballistic-missile-says-south", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1548282", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/11/21/north-korea-kim-daughter-succession/", "https://manifold.markets/jack/will-north-korea-test-a-hwasong17-i"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2022-04-29 | 0.0 | [["2022-04-29", 0.9066666666666666], ["2022-04-29", 0.71], ["2022-04-30", 0.5842857142857143], ["2022-04-30", 0.5825], ["2022-04-30", 0.445], ["2022-04-30", 0.392], ["2022-04-30", 0.411], ["2022-04-30", 0.445], ["2022-05-01", 0.469], ["2022-05-01", 0.439], ["2022-05-01", 0.362], ["2022-05-02", 0.358], ["2022-05-02", 0.2918181818181818], ["2022-05-02", 0.25666666666666665], ["2022-05-02", 0.31384615384615383], ["2022-05-02", 0.3757142857142857], ["2022-05-03", 0.37642857142857145], ["2022-05-03", 0.364], ["2022-05-04", 0.35375], ["2022-05-04", 0.371875], ["2022-05-04", 0.41411764705882353], 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["2022-11-27", 0.0578], ["2022-11-28", 0.0573], ["2022-11-28", 0.0564], ["2022-11-28", 0.0543], ["2022-11-28", 0.0517], ["2022-11-28", 0.0505], ["2022-11-28", 0.0475], ["2022-11-28", 0.0444], ["2022-11-28", 0.0442], ["2022-11-28", 0.0434], ["2022-11-29", 0.048], ["2022-11-29", 0.0477], ["2022-11-29", 0.0471], ["2022-11-29", 0.0464], ["2022-11-29", 0.0459], ["2022-11-30", 0.0369], ["2022-11-30", 0.0359], ["2022-11-30", 0.0345], ["2022-11-30", 0.0318], ["2022-11-30", 0.0258], ["2022-11-30", 0.0253], ["2022-11-30", 0.0242], ["2022-12-01", 0.0238], ["2022-12-01", 0.0238]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2370 | True |
2023-05-05 | In the current conflict in Ukraine, will Russia and Ukraine announce a ceasefire before 5 May 2023? | binary |
<p>While various parties have called for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, the fighting continues (<a href="https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/10/11/Turkey-calls-for-ceasefire-between-Ukraine-Russia-as-soon-as-possible-" target="_blank">Al Arabiya</a>, <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/kremlin-sources-claim-vladimir-putin-is-plotting-another-full-scale-offensive-in-ukraine" target="_blank">Daily Beast</a>, <a href="https://www.parleypolicy.com/post/tracking-ukraine-russia-ceasefire-negotiations" target="_blank"> Parley Policy Initiative</a>). An announced ceasefire must be acknowledged by both Russia and Ukraine to count, and must include the whole of Ukraine. For the purposes of this question, "Ukraine" includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea. The Ukrainian government as recognized by the European Union must be party to the announced ceasefire to count. The date a ceasefire would take effect is immaterial.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-05-05 | gjopen | ["https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/03/russia-ukraine-war-pundits-history-international-relations/673293/", "https://tass.com/politics/1613127", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/20/us/politics/biden-kyiv-ukraine.html", "https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/5628", "https://www.foreignaffairs.com/regions/ukraine", "https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230105-live-russia-s-patriarch-kirill-calls-for-orthodox-christmas-ceasefire-in-ukraine", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qK9tLDeWBzs&t=9147s&ab_channel=%D7%A0%D7%A4%D7%AA%D7%9C%D7%99%D7%91%D7%A0%D7%98%7CNaftaliBennett", "https://www.npr.org/2023/03/14/1163363579/desantis-trump-ukraine-republican-split", "https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691140605/how-wars-end", "https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/decoding-chinas-response-to-the", "https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/03/ron-desantis-ukraine-war-end/673463/", "https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-15-2023", "https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2022/01/06/why-did-the-russian-and-ukrainian-orthodox-churches-split", "https://www.parleypolicy.com/post/tracking-ukraine-russia-ceasefire-negotiations", "https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-04-07-23/h_0bfda1925ca873eedfd1246b5de297e4", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-ukraine-ceasefire-now-would-not-achieve-moscows-goals-2023-03-31/", "https://warontherocks.com/2023/01/talking-strategy-with-assistant-secretary-of-defense-mara-karlin/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/14/world/europe/ukraine-nato-allies-artillery.html", "https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-russias-victory-day-celebrations-scaled-back-over-fears-of-attack-12871894", "https://www.npr.org/2023/02/22/1158529106/nuclear-treaty-new-start-putin", "https://www.reuters.com/world/nato-eu-react-reservedly-chinese-ceasefire-proposal-ukraine-2023-02-24/", "https://lite.cnn.com/2023/02/22/business/russia-economy-ukraine-anniversary", "https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/decoding-chinas-response-to-the-", "https://www.infer-pub.com/", "https://www.voanews.com/a/blinken-calls-for-united-nato-stance-on-russian-troop-buildup-near-ukraine-/6380810.html"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2022-11-04 | 0.0 | [["2022-11-04", 0.52], ["2022-11-04", 0.385], ["2022-11-04", 0.39], ["2022-11-04", 0.32], ["2022-11-05", 0.3113], ["2022-11-05", 0.3306], ["2022-11-05", 0.3185], ["2022-11-05", 0.3087], ["2022-11-05", 0.2777], ["2022-11-05", 0.2932], ["2022-11-05", 0.2955], ["2022-11-05", 0.2829], ["2022-11-05", 0.2947], ["2022-11-05", 0.2721], ["2022-11-06", 0.2666], ["2022-11-06", 0.2695], ["2022-11-06", 0.2732], ["2022-11-07", 0.2704], ["2022-11-07", 0.2706], 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["2023-02-06", 0.1041], ["2023-02-06", 0.1002], ["2023-02-07", 0.1047], ["2023-02-07", 0.1053], ["2023-02-08", 0.1051], ["2023-02-08", 0.1047], ["2023-02-09", 0.1053], ["2023-02-10", 0.1061], ["2023-02-11", 0.1039], ["2023-02-12", 0.1037], ["2023-02-13", 0.1097], ["2023-02-13", 0.1092], ["2023-02-14", 0.1087], ["2023-02-15", 0.1079], ["2023-02-15", 0.107], ["2023-02-15", 0.1017], ["2023-02-16", 0.1007], ["2023-02-18", 0.1006], ["2023-02-18", 0.0993], ["2023-02-18", 0.0977], ["2023-02-19", 0.0955], ["2023-02-19", 0.0955], ["2023-02-20", 0.0959], ["2023-02-21", 0.0925], ["2023-02-21", 0.0923], ["2023-02-21", 0.092], ["2023-02-22", 0.0865], ["2023-02-23", 0.0871], ["2023-02-23", 0.0862], ["2023-02-24", 0.0871], ["2023-02-24", 0.0875], ["2023-02-24", 0.0883], ["2023-02-24", 0.0879], ["2023-02-25", 0.0874], ["2023-02-25", 0.0869], ["2023-02-26", 0.0869], ["2023-02-26", 0.0828], ["2023-02-27", 0.0826], ["2023-02-27", 0.0823], ["2023-02-28", 0.0817], ["2023-02-28", 0.0816], ["2023-02-28", 0.0811], ["2023-03-01", 0.0805], ["2023-03-02", 0.0803], ["2023-03-02", 0.0803], ["2023-03-03", 0.0796], ["2023-03-03", 0.0778], ["2023-03-04", 0.0755], ["2023-03-04", 0.074], ["2023-03-04", 0.0751], ["2023-03-06", 0.0748], ["2023-03-06", 0.0783], ["2023-03-06", 0.0779], ["2023-03-06", 0.0776], ["2023-03-07", 0.0745], ["2023-03-07", 0.0747], ["2023-03-08", 0.071], ["2023-03-09", 0.0691], ["2023-03-10", 0.0693], ["2023-03-11", 0.0675], ["2023-03-11", 0.0662], ["2023-03-11", 0.0715], ["2023-03-11", 0.0713], ["2023-03-12", 0.073], ["2023-03-12", 0.0724], ["2023-03-13", 0.0727], ["2023-03-13", 0.0722], ["2023-03-14", 0.0721], ["2023-03-14", 0.0719], ["2023-03-15", 0.0721], ["2023-03-16", 0.0727], ["2023-03-17", 0.0725], ["2023-03-17", 0.0664], ["2023-03-18", 0.0663], ["2023-03-18", 0.065], ["2023-03-18", 0.0647], ["2023-03-20", 0.0643], ["2023-03-21", 0.0633], ["2023-03-21", 0.0631], ["2023-03-22", 0.0629], ["2023-03-22", 0.0625], ["2023-03-23", 0.0629], ["2023-03-23", 0.0625], ["2023-03-24", 0.0603], ["2023-03-25", 0.0603], ["2023-03-26", 0.0599], ["2023-03-26", 0.06], ["2023-03-27", 0.0577], ["2023-03-28", 0.0528], ["2023-03-28", 0.0516], ["2023-03-29", 0.0508], ["2023-03-30", 0.0492], ["2023-03-31", 0.0488], ["2023-03-31", 0.0487], ["2023-03-31", 0.0485], ["2023-04-01", 0.0465], ["2023-04-02", 0.0465], ["2023-04-03", 0.0424], ["2023-04-03", 0.0486], ["2023-04-04", 0.0481], ["2023-04-04", 0.0477], ["2023-04-05", 0.0474], ["2023-04-06", 0.0471], ["2023-04-07", 0.0473], ["2023-04-07", 0.0474], ["2023-04-07", 0.0485], ["2023-04-07", 0.0491], ["2023-04-09", 0.0493], ["2023-04-10", 0.0493], ["2023-04-10", 0.0493], ["2023-04-10", 0.0475], ["2023-04-11", 0.048], ["2023-04-12", 0.0465], ["2023-04-12", 0.0464], ["2023-04-12", 0.0461], ["2023-04-13", 0.0453], ["2023-04-14", 0.0455], ["2023-04-14", 0.0455], ["2023-04-15", 0.0451], ["2023-04-15", 0.0447], ["2023-04-16", 0.0439], ["2023-04-17", 0.0437], ["2023-04-17", 0.0439], ["2023-04-18", 0.0437], ["2023-04-18", 0.044], ["2023-04-19", 0.0442], ["2023-04-19", 0.0434], ["2023-04-19", 0.0431], ["2023-04-20", 0.043], ["2023-04-20", 0.0429], ["2023-04-20", 0.0431], ["2023-04-20", 0.0426], ["2023-04-21", 0.0423], ["2023-04-21", 0.0421], ["2023-04-21", 0.0418], ["2023-04-22", 0.0417], ["2023-04-22", 0.0418], ["2023-04-23", 0.0418], ["2023-04-23", 0.0417], ["2023-04-24", 0.0411], ["2023-04-24", 0.0408], ["2023-04-25", 0.0403], ["2023-04-25", 0.0403], ["2023-04-26", 0.0402], ["2023-04-27", 0.0402], ["2023-04-27", 0.0401], ["2023-04-28", 0.038], ["2023-04-28", 0.0365], ["2023-04-28", 0.0362], ["2023-04-28", 0.0355], ["2023-04-28", 0.0318], ["2023-04-29", 0.0321], ["2023-04-29", 0.0317], ["2023-04-29", 0.0315], ["2023-04-30", 0.0309], ["2023-04-30", 0.0373], ["2023-05-01", 0.0367], ["2023-05-01", 0.0363], ["2023-05-02", 0.0359], ["2023-05-02", 0.0355], ["2023-05-02", 0.0355], ["2023-05-03", 0.0353], ["2023-05-03", 0.029], ["2023-05-03", 0.0291], ["2023-05-04", 0.0289], ["2023-05-04", 0.0289], ["2023-05-04", 0.0288], ["2023-05-04", 0.0284], ["2023-05-05", 0.0281]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2615 | True |
2021-06-18 | Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar exceed 9.00? | binary |
<p>The lira has been under pressure amid Turkey's tensions with the U.S. and the EU, compounded by COVID-19 (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/emerging-markets/emerging-markets-turkeys-lira-falls-past-8-per-dollar-fx-stocks-eye-6th-week-of-gains-idUSL4N2IR24P" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-11/turkish-lira-declines-as-u-s-sanctions-risk-sours-appetite" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDTRY:CUR" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. 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scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-06-19 | gjopen | ["https://www.economist.com/big-mac-index", "https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210423-turkey-seeks-arrest-of-missing-crypto-boss-over-huge-fraud", "https://www.euronews.com/2021/05/19/eu-turkey-relations-at-historic-low-point-meps-warn", "https://ahvalnews.com/turkish-lira/fitch-signals-possible-turkey-downgrade-after-central-bank-chief-sacked", "https://ahvalnews.com/turkey-banking/turkish-banks-teeter-brink", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ottoman_public_debt", "https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailysabah.com/business/finance/turkeys-new-central-bank-chief-kavcioglu-vows-to-fight-inflation/amp", "https://www.marketscreener.com/news/latest/Stocks-set-for-worst-day-in-1-month-as-virus-fears-resurface--33022541/", "https://www.ft.com/content/da784c15-03b2-4d01-bf7c-c9fa79b45d51", "https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/21/turkish-lira-could-plunge-15-as-erdogan-faces-market-wrath-for-sacking-bank-chief", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Eastern_Crisis#Ottoman_economic_crisis_and_default", "https://ahvalnews.com/turkish-lira/turkish-lira-weakens-ahead-central-bank-meeting-interest-rates", "https://ahvalnews.com/turkey-politics/erdogan-sacks-trade-minister-after-nepotism-allegations", "https://www.reuters.com/article/turkey-crypto-currency-idUSL1N2M90AO", "https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Turkey-s-revolving-door-of-central-bank-chiefs-whipsaws-markets", "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkish-lira-nears-record-low-after-cenbank-comment-us-genocide-move-2021-04-25/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-23/turkey-the-politics-behind-erdogan-s-central-bank-decision", "https://ahvalnews.com/turkish-lira/turkish-lira-falls-after-erdogan-tells-biden-position-s-400s-unchanged", "https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Announcements/Calendar", "https://www.google.com/amp/s/finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/gold-steadies-near-three-month-014845844.html", "https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/05/06/turkish-central-bank-sticks-to-high-interest-rates-post-inflation-rise.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-26/banks-rip-up-turkish-lira-forecasts-and-turn-to-guesswork", "https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/confusion-grips-turkish-markets-central-141941403.html", "https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/!/turkish-lira-slammed-to-a-record-low-against-the-dollar-after-erdogan-rate-cut-threat-20210601", "https://ahvalnews.com/turkey-debt/indebted-turkish-firms-left-exposed-weak-policy-fed-taper-fitch"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2020-12-22 | 0.0 | [["2020-12-22", 0.56], ["2020-12-22", 0.11], ["2020-12-22", 0.16], ["2020-12-23", 0.11], ["2020-12-23", 0.095], ["2020-12-23", 0.05], ["2020-12-23", 0.05], 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["2021-01-16", 0.025], ["2021-01-17", 0.02], ["2021-01-18", 0.025], ["2021-01-21", 0.025], ["2021-01-22", 0.025], ["2021-01-24", 0.025], ["2021-01-26", 0.025], ["2021-01-26", 0.03], ["2021-01-28", 0.03], ["2021-01-30", 0.03], ["2021-01-30", 0.03], ["2021-02-01", 0.03], ["2021-02-02", 0.02], ["2021-02-04", 0.025], ["2021-02-04", 0.025], ["2021-02-06", 0.025], ["2021-02-08", 0.025], ["2021-02-09", 0.015], ["2021-02-10", 0.015], ["2021-02-11", 0.015], ["2021-02-11", 0.015], ["2021-02-11", 0.005], ["2021-02-13", 0.005], ["2021-02-16", 0.005], ["2021-02-18", 0.005], ["2021-02-19", 0.0], ["2021-02-20", 0.0], ["2021-02-22", 0.0], ["2021-02-23", 0.0], ["2021-02-24", 0.0], ["2021-02-25", 0.0], ["2021-03-05", 0.0], ["2021-03-07", 0.0], ["2021-03-09", 0.0], ["2021-03-15", 0.0], ["2021-03-17", 0.0], ["2021-03-19", 0.0], ["2021-03-21", 0.0], ["2021-03-21", 0.0], ["2021-03-21", 0.0], ["2021-03-21", 0.0], ["2021-03-22", 0.0], ["2021-03-22", 0.0], ["2021-03-22", 0.005], ["2021-03-22", 0.01], 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["2021-04-07", 0.205], ["2021-04-07", 0.23], ["2021-04-08", 0.205], ["2021-04-09", 0.205], ["2021-04-09", 0.2], ["2021-04-10", 0.2], ["2021-04-11", 0.2], ["2021-04-11", 0.2], ["2021-04-12", 0.2], ["2021-04-12", 0.195], ["2021-04-13", 0.195], ["2021-04-13", 0.195], ["2021-04-14", 0.2], ["2021-04-15", 0.2], ["2021-04-15", 0.2], ["2021-04-16", 0.2], ["2021-04-18", 0.195], ["2021-04-20", 0.195], ["2021-04-21", 0.195], ["2021-04-21", 0.195], ["2021-04-22", 0.215], ["2021-04-22", 0.215], ["2021-04-23", 0.215], ["2021-04-24", 0.24], ["2021-04-25", 0.24], ["2021-04-26", 0.25], ["2021-04-26", 0.25], ["2021-04-27", 0.24], ["2021-04-27", 0.25], ["2021-04-28", 0.25], ["2021-04-29", 0.25], ["2021-04-29", 0.25], ["2021-04-29", 0.25], ["2021-04-30", 0.24], ["2021-04-30", 0.25], ["2021-04-30", 0.23], ["2021-04-30", 0.215], ["2021-05-02", 0.215], ["2021-05-03", 0.215], ["2021-05-04", 0.14], ["2021-05-05", 0.13], ["2021-05-05", 0.13], ["2021-05-05", 0.125], ["2021-05-06", 0.12], ["2021-05-06", 0.12], ["2021-05-07", 0.12], ["2021-05-07", 0.12], ["2021-05-08", 0.11], ["2021-05-09", 0.11], ["2021-05-09", 0.085], ["2021-05-10", 0.085], ["2021-05-11", 0.07], ["2021-05-12", 0.07], ["2021-05-12", 0.075], ["2021-05-13", 0.07], ["2021-05-14", 0.07], ["2021-05-15", 0.07], ["2021-05-15", 0.07], ["2021-05-15", 0.07], ["2021-05-15", 0.07], ["2021-05-16", 0.08], ["2021-05-17", 0.08], ["2021-05-17", 0.08], ["2021-05-17", 0.07], ["2021-05-19", 0.08], ["2021-05-19", 0.08], ["2021-05-19", 0.08], ["2021-05-20", 0.08], ["2021-05-20", 0.08], ["2021-05-21", 0.08], ["2021-05-21", 0.08], ["2021-05-22", 0.06], ["2021-05-22", 0.06], ["2021-05-24", 0.06], ["2021-05-25", 0.06], ["2021-05-25", 0.06], ["2021-05-26", 0.06], ["2021-05-27", 0.05], ["2021-05-28", 0.05], ["2021-05-29", 0.05], ["2021-05-31", 0.05], ["2021-05-31", 0.06], ["2021-06-01", 0.06], ["2021-06-02", 0.06], ["2021-06-02", 0.06], ["2021-06-03", 0.06], ["2021-06-03", 0.06], ["2021-06-04", 0.09], ["2021-06-04", 0.09], ["2021-06-04", 0.1], ["2021-06-04", 0.1], ["2021-06-05", 0.1], ["2021-06-05", 0.1], ["2021-06-06", 0.1], ["2021-06-06", 0.1], ["2021-06-08", 0.1], ["2021-06-08", 0.1], ["2021-06-08", 0.095], ["2021-06-08", 0.095], ["2021-06-09", 0.095], ["2021-06-09", 0.08], ["2021-06-09", 0.075], ["2021-06-09", 0.08], ["2021-06-10", 0.08], ["2021-06-10", 0.075], ["2021-06-10", 0.065], ["2021-06-11", 0.06], ["2021-06-11", 0.055], ["2021-06-11", 0.05], ["2021-06-11", 0.04], ["2021-06-11", 0.035], ["2021-06-11", 0.025], ["2021-06-12", 0.02], ["2021-06-13", 0.02], ["2021-06-13", 0.02], ["2021-06-13", 0.02], ["2021-06-14", 0.02], ["2021-06-14", 0.02], ["2021-06-14", 0.02], ["2021-06-14", 0.015], ["2021-06-14", 0.01], ["2021-06-15", 0.01], ["2021-06-16", 0.01], ["2021-06-16", 0.01], ["2021-06-16", 0.01], ["2021-06-16", 0.01], ["2021-06-16", 0.01], ["2021-06-17", 0.01], ["2021-06-17", 0.01], ["2021-06-17", 0.01], ["2021-06-18", 0.01]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1878 | True |
2023-06-03 | Will the spread between US high-yield corporate bonds and US Treasuries reach or exceed 6.50% before 3 June 2023? | binary |
<p>With the fallout from bank failures being felt throughout the financial system, borrowing costs for "high-yield" bonds (aka junk bonds) jumped in mid-March 2023 (<a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-03-13/u-s-credit-default-swaps-rise-on-worries-about-bank-failure-contagion" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-junk-bond-spreads-balloon-102441471.html" target="_blank">Yahoo Finance</a>, <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/high_yield_bond.asp" target="_blank">Investopedia</a>). The outcome will be determined using Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for "ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread" (<a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2" target="_blank">FRED</a>). For 16 March 2023, the spread was 4.93%.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-06-05 | gjopen | ["https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2EY"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2023-03-17 | 0.0 | [["2023-03-17", 0.0], ["2023-03-17", 0.22], ["2023-03-17", 0.48], ["2023-03-17", 0.4225], ["2023-03-17", 0.378], ["2023-03-17", 0.3567], ["2023-03-17", 0.3186], ["2023-03-18", 0.3129], ["2023-03-18", 0.3575], ["2023-03-18", 0.34], ["2023-03-18", 0.306], ["2023-03-18", 0.2964], ["2023-03-18", 0.315], ["2023-03-18", 0.2717], ["2023-03-18", 0.2508], ["2023-03-18", 0.2329], ["2023-03-18", 0.2173], ["2023-03-19", 0.2038], ["2023-03-19", 0.1947], ["2023-03-19", 0.2211], ["2023-03-19", 0.2479], ["2023-03-19", 0.2268], ["2023-03-19", 0.2405], ["2023-03-19", 0.247], ["2023-03-20", 0.2352], ["2023-03-20", 0.2395], ["2023-03-20", 0.2619], ["2023-03-20", 0.2657], ["2023-03-20", 0.2536], ["2023-03-21", 0.2661], ["2023-03-21", 0.2606], ["2023-03-21", 0.242], ["2023-03-21", 0.2363], ["2023-03-21", 0.2518], ["2023-03-21", 0.2235], ["2023-03-22", 0.2646], ["2023-03-22", 0.2993], ["2023-03-22", 0.3029], ["2023-03-22", 0.3007], ["2023-03-22", 0.255], ["2023-03-22", 0.2477], ["2023-03-23", 0.2508], ["2023-03-23", 0.3085], ["2023-03-23", 0.3062], ["2023-03-24", 0.3515], ["2023-03-24", 0.3836], ["2023-03-24", 0.3871], ["2023-03-25", 0.4062], ["2023-03-26", 0.395], ["2023-03-27", 0.3957], ["2023-03-27", 0.3979], ["2023-03-27", 0.4121], ["2023-03-27", 0.4193], ["2023-03-28", 0.3871], ["2023-03-29", 0.3843], ["2023-03-29", 0.3814], ["2023-03-29", 0.356], ["2023-03-29", 0.3547], ["2023-03-30", 0.3533], ["2023-03-30", 0.334], ["2023-03-30", 0.3387], ["2023-03-30", 0.3333], ["2023-03-30", 0.3275], ["2023-03-31", 0.3156], ["2023-03-31", 0.3094], ["2023-03-31", 0.3088], ["2023-04-01", 0.3069], ["2023-04-02", 0.2881], ["2023-04-02", 0.2381], ["2023-04-02", 0.2288], ["2023-04-03", 0.2194], ["2023-04-03", 0.2156], ["2023-04-03", 0.2138], ["2023-04-03", 0.1881], ["2023-04-04", 0.1869], ["2023-04-04", 0.185], ["2023-04-04", 0.1806], ["2023-04-05", 0.2056], ["2023-04-05", 0.2038], ["2023-04-05", 0.2006], ["2023-04-06", 0.2025], ["2023-04-06", 0.2013], ["2023-04-06", 0.1981], ["2023-04-07", 0.2044], ["2023-04-08", 0.1944], ["2023-04-09", 0.2263], ["2023-04-11", 0.2231], ["2023-04-12", 0.2138], ["2023-04-12", 0.2138], ["2023-04-13", 0.2088], ["2023-04-15", 0.2081], ["2023-04-15", 0.1988], ["2023-04-15", 0.1925], ["2023-04-16", 0.2038], ["2023-04-17", 0.1959], ["2023-04-18", 0.1871], ["2023-04-18", 0.1865], ["2023-04-18", 0.1924], ["2023-04-18", 0.1912], ["2023-04-19", 0.1906], ["2023-04-19", 0.1894], ["2023-04-20", 0.1876], ["2023-04-23", 0.1865], ["2023-04-24", 0.1747], ["2023-04-24", 0.1729], ["2023-04-25", 0.1712], ["2023-04-25", 0.1565], ["2023-04-25", 0.1653], ["2023-04-25", 0.1624], ["2023-04-26", 0.1606], ["2023-04-26", 0.15], ["2023-04-26", 0.1494], ["2023-04-27", 0.1282], ["2023-04-28", 0.1253], ["2023-04-29", 0.1241], ["2023-04-29", 0.1229], ["2023-05-01", 0.1159], ["2023-05-01", 0.1124], ["2023-05-02", 0.1035], ["2023-05-02", 0.1029], ["2023-05-02", 0.0994], ["2023-05-03", 0.0994], ["2023-05-03", 0.0829], ["2023-05-03", 0.0789], ["2023-05-03", 0.0744], ["2023-05-03", 0.0733], ["2023-05-04", 0.0728], ["2023-05-04", 0.0761], ["2023-05-05", 0.0806], ["2023-05-05", 0.0822], ["2023-05-05", 0.08], ["2023-05-06", 0.0822], ["2023-05-06", 0.0828], ["2023-05-08", 0.0817], ["2023-05-08", 0.0783], ["2023-05-09", 0.0656], ["2023-05-09", 0.0656], ["2023-05-09", 0.0644], ["2023-05-10", 0.0644], ["2023-05-10", 0.0628], ["2023-05-11", 0.0622], ["2023-05-11", 0.0617], ["2023-05-11", 0.0506], ["2023-05-12", 0.0494], ["2023-05-12", 0.0483], ["2023-05-12", 0.0461], ["2023-05-13", 0.0394], ["2023-05-13", 0.04], ["2023-05-14", 0.0389], ["2023-05-14", 0.0383], ["2023-05-15", 0.0344], ["2023-05-16", 0.0328], ["2023-05-16", 0.0306], ["2023-05-17", 0.0294], ["2023-05-18", 0.0294], ["2023-05-19", 0.0267], ["2023-05-19", 0.0256], ["2023-05-19", 0.0228], ["2023-05-19", 0.0228], ["2023-05-19", 0.0217], ["2023-05-20", 0.0194], ["2023-05-21", 0.0111], ["2023-05-21", 0.0106], ["2023-05-21", 0.0106], ["2023-05-23", 0.01], ["2023-05-23", 0.0094], ["2023-05-25", 0.0083], ["2023-05-25", 0.0083], ["2023-05-25", 0.0072], ["2023-05-26", 0.0083], ["2023-05-27", 0.0078], ["2023-05-27", 0.0078], ["2023-05-27", 0.0078], ["2023-05-27", 0.0078], ["2023-05-27", 0.0072], ["2023-05-31", 0.0067], ["2023-06-01", 0.0072], ["2023-06-01", 0.0067], ["2023-06-01", 0.0039], ["2023-06-02", 0.0033], ["2023-06-02", 0.0028], ["2023-06-03", 0.0028]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2799 | True |
2021-09-20 | Will the Liberal Party win a majority of seats in the 2021 Canadian parliamentary elections? | binary |
<p>Canadian Governor General Mary Simon dissolved the Canadian parliament at PM Justin Trudeau's request on Sunday 15 August 2021 and set election day for 20 September 2021 (<a href="https://edmontonjournal.com/news/national/federal-election-set-for-sept-20-after-governor-general-dissolves-parliament" target="_blank">Edmonton Journal</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-58209031" target="_blank">BBC</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 14 September 2021</span>: A majority is a number or percentage equaling more than half of a total. In order to win a majority of seats, a party needs to win 170 or more seats. Majority is not synonymous with plurality.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-09-21 | gjopen | ["https://www.cicnews.com/2021/09/election-2021-polls-say-conservatives-are-leading-0919081.html#gs.a9296b", "https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-elections-canada-warns-of-problems-delays-ahead-of-voting-day/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canadas-trudeau-trailing-polls-goes-attack-two-weeks-before-vote-2021-09-06/", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/21/canada-general-election-2021-full-results", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Canadian_federal_election#Regional_polls", "https://338canada.com/", "https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89lections_f%C3%A9d%C3%A9rales_canadiennes_de_2019", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Canadian_federal_election", "https://angusreid.org/federal-election-post-debate/", "https://twitter.com/338canada/status/1439049214865125377", "https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/09/20/world/canada-election-2021", "https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/federal-election-2021/another-minority-government-potential-election-outcomes-explained-1.5580570", "https://twitter.com/canadianpolling/status/1438664964177289217", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-58389802", "https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/federal-election-2021/liberals-see-a-jump-in-support-after-back-to-back-debates-nanos-1.5581539", "https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/", "https://globalnews.ca/news/8178087/protests-election-ipsos-poll/", "https://globalnews.ca/news/8156994/canada-election-race-week-3-ipsos/", "https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/one-in-eight-canadians-is-completely-undecided-on-how-to-vote", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1325193", "https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/federal-election-2021/expected-wave-of-mail-in-ballot-requests-still-hasn-t-arrived-1.5575251", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1333994", "https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal-election/2021/08/30/if-the-election-was-held-today-the-liberals-would-win-but-with-fewer-seats-signal-analysis-says.html", "https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal-election/polls/2021/election-forecast.html?rf", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-03/trudeau-tumbles-further-behind-conservative-freight-train"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2021-08-19 | 0.0 | [["2021-08-20", 0.05], ["2021-08-20", 0.225], ["2021-08-20", 0.4], ["2021-08-20", 0.4], ["2021-08-20", 0.4], ["2021-08-20", 0.4], ["2021-08-20", 0.4], ["2021-08-20", 0.325], ["2021-08-20", 0.325], ["2021-08-20", 0.325], ["2021-08-20", 0.29], ["2021-08-20", 0.33], ["2021-08-20", 0.315], ["2021-08-20", 0.33], ["2021-08-20", 0.3], ["2021-08-20", 0.3], ["2021-08-20", 0.275], ["2021-08-21", 0.275], ["2021-08-21", 0.25], ["2021-08-21", 0.24], ["2021-08-21", 0.23], ["2021-08-21", 0.24], ["2021-08-21", 0.24], ["2021-08-21", 0.24], ["2021-08-21", 0.23], ["2021-08-21", 0.23], ["2021-08-21", 0.24], ["2021-08-21", 0.215], ["2021-08-21", 0.2], ["2021-08-21", 0.2], ["2021-08-21", 0.2], ["2021-08-21", 0.2], ["2021-08-22", 0.2], ["2021-08-22", 0.2], ["2021-08-22", 0.2], ["2021-08-22", 0.2], ["2021-08-22", 0.2], ["2021-08-22", 0.2], ["2021-08-22", 0.2], ["2021-08-22", 0.2], ["2021-08-22", 0.2], ["2021-08-22", 0.2], ["2021-08-22", 0.2], ["2021-08-23", 0.2], ["2021-08-23", 0.2], ["2021-08-23", 0.2], ["2021-08-23", 0.2], ["2021-08-23", 0.2], ["2021-08-23", 0.2], ["2021-08-23", 0.2], ["2021-08-23", 0.2], ["2021-08-23", 0.2], ["2021-08-23", 0.195], ["2021-08-24", 0.195], ["2021-08-24", 0.205], ["2021-08-24", 0.215], ["2021-08-24", 0.22], ["2021-08-24", 0.22], ["2021-08-25", 0.215], ["2021-08-25", 0.215], ["2021-08-25", 0.21], ["2021-08-25", 0.21], ["2021-08-25", 0.2], ["2021-08-25", 0.19], ["2021-08-25", 0.2], ["2021-08-25", 0.16], ["2021-08-26", 0.13], ["2021-08-26", 0.155], ["2021-08-26", 0.13], ["2021-08-26", 0.13], ["2021-08-26", 0.12], ["2021-08-26", 0.145], ["2021-08-26", 0.145], ["2021-08-26", 0.145], ["2021-08-26", 0.125], ["2021-08-26", 0.125], ["2021-08-26", 0.125], ["2021-08-26", 0.12], ["2021-08-26", 0.13], ["2021-08-27", 0.12], ["2021-08-27", 0.12], ["2021-08-27", 0.12], ["2021-08-27", 0.12], ["2021-08-27", 0.12], ["2021-08-28", 0.12], ["2021-08-28", 0.115], ["2021-08-28", 0.115], ["2021-08-29", 0.12], ["2021-08-29", 0.12], ["2021-08-29", 0.12], ["2021-08-29", 0.12], ["2021-08-29", 0.11], ["2021-08-29", 0.11], ["2021-08-30", 0.11], ["2021-08-30", 0.1], ["2021-08-30", 0.1], ["2021-08-30", 0.1], ["2021-08-30", 0.1], ["2021-08-31", 0.1], ["2021-08-31", 0.1], ["2021-08-31", 0.1], ["2021-08-31", 0.1], ["2021-08-31", 0.1], ["2021-08-31", 0.1], ["2021-08-31", 0.085], ["2021-08-31", 0.1], ["2021-09-01", 0.1], ["2021-09-01", 0.1], ["2021-09-01", 0.1], ["2021-09-01", 0.1], ["2021-09-01", 0.1], ["2021-09-01", 0.07], ["2021-09-01", 0.07], ["2021-09-01", 0.065], ["2021-09-01", 0.065], ["2021-09-01", 0.065], ["2021-09-01", 0.07], ["2021-09-02", 0.07], ["2021-09-02", 0.06], ["2021-09-02", 0.06], ["2021-09-02", 0.05], ["2021-09-02", 0.05], ["2021-09-02", 0.055], ["2021-09-02", 0.06], ["2021-09-02", 0.06], ["2021-09-02", 0.05], ["2021-09-02", 0.05], ["2021-09-02", 0.05], ["2021-09-02", 0.05], ["2021-09-03", 0.05], ["2021-09-03", 0.05], ["2021-09-03", 0.05], ["2021-09-04", 0.05], ["2021-09-04", 0.05], ["2021-09-04", 0.05], ["2021-09-04", 0.045], ["2021-09-05", 0.05], ["2021-09-05", 0.05], ["2021-09-05", 0.05], ["2021-09-05", 0.05], ["2021-09-05", 0.05], ["2021-09-05", 0.05], ["2021-09-07", 0.05], ["2021-09-07", 0.05], ["2021-09-07", 0.03], ["2021-09-08", 0.03], ["2021-09-08", 0.03], ["2021-09-08", 0.03], ["2021-09-09", 0.03], ["2021-09-09", 0.04], ["2021-09-09", 0.04], ["2021-09-10", 0.04], ["2021-09-10", 0.04], ["2021-09-10", 0.05], ["2021-09-10", 0.05], ["2021-09-10", 0.05], ["2021-09-10", 0.04], ["2021-09-11", 0.04], ["2021-09-11", 0.04], ["2021-09-11", 0.05], ["2021-09-11", 0.05], ["2021-09-11", 0.05], ["2021-09-11", 0.05], ["2021-09-11", 0.05], ["2021-09-12", 0.03], ["2021-09-12", 0.03], ["2021-09-12", 0.03], ["2021-09-12", 0.05], ["2021-09-12", 0.03], ["2021-09-12", 0.03], ["2021-09-12", 0.03], ["2021-09-12", 0.03], ["2021-09-12", 0.03], ["2021-09-13", 0.03], ["2021-09-13", 0.03], ["2021-09-13", 0.03], ["2021-09-13", 0.04], ["2021-09-13", 0.05], ["2021-09-13", 0.05], ["2021-09-13", 0.05], ["2021-09-13", 0.03], ["2021-09-14", 0.03], ["2021-09-15", 0.03], ["2021-09-15", 0.03], ["2021-09-16", 0.03], ["2021-09-16", 0.03], ["2021-09-16", 0.03], ["2021-09-16", 0.03], ["2021-09-16", 0.03], ["2021-09-16", 0.03], ["2021-09-17", 0.05], ["2021-09-17", 0.05], ["2021-09-17", 0.05], ["2021-09-17", 0.045], ["2021-09-17", 0.05], ["2021-09-17", 0.05], ["2021-09-18", 0.05], ["2021-09-18", 0.055], ["2021-09-18", 0.055], ["2021-09-19", 0.055], ["2021-09-19", 0.055], ["2021-09-19", 0.055], ["2021-09-19", 0.075], ["2021-09-19", 0.075], ["2021-09-20", 0.06], ["2021-09-20", 0.06], ["2021-09-20", 0.06], ["2021-09-20", 0.06]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2101 | True |
2020-08-07 | Will the Swedish Scholastic Aptitude Test (SweSAT) scheduled for 18 October 2020 be canceled or postponed? | binary |
<p>The Swedish Scholastic Aptitude Test (Högskoleprovet in Swedish) is a standardized test held twice a year and used for admissions to Swedish universities (<a href="https://www.studera.nu/startpage/road-to-studies/hogskoleprovet---swedish-scholastic-aptitude-test/what-is-the-hogskoleprovet/" target="_blank">Studera.nu</a>, <a href="https://www.umu.se/institutionen-for-tillampad-utbildningsvetenskap/hprov/" target="_blank">Umeå University</a> [in Swedish]). The Spring exam was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic (<a href="https://www.thelocal.se/20200313/swedish-pm-urges-against-non-essential-travel-amid-coronavirus-outbreak" target="_blank">The Local</a>). The next test is scheduled for 18 October 2020 (<a href="https://www.hogskoleprov.nu/Information" target="_blank">Högskoleprov.nu</a> [in Swedish]).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p>
</p>
| 2020-08-08 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2020-05-29 | 1.0 | [["2020-05-29", 0.0], ["2020-05-29", 0.0], ["2020-05-29", 0.0], ["2020-05-29", 0.0], ["2020-05-29", 0.0], ["2020-05-29", 0.005], ["2020-05-29", 0.01], ["2020-05-29", 0.01], ["2020-05-29", 0.005], ["2020-05-29", 0.01], ["2020-05-29", 0.03], ["2020-05-30", 0.03], ["2020-05-30", 0.05], ["2020-05-30", 0.045], ["2020-05-30", 0.035], ["2020-05-30", 0.045], ["2020-05-30", 0.035], ["2020-05-30", 0.045], ["2020-05-30", 0.05], ["2020-05-30", 0.045], ["2020-05-31", 0.035], ["2020-05-31", 0.045], ["2020-05-31", 0.045], ["2020-05-31", 0.045], ["2020-05-31", 0.05], ["2020-05-31", 0.05], ["2020-05-31", 0.05], ["2020-05-31", 0.05], ["2020-05-31", 0.05], ["2020-06-01", 0.05], ["2020-06-01", 0.05], ["2020-06-01", 0.05], ["2020-06-01", 0.05], ["2020-06-01", 0.05], ["2020-06-01", 0.05], ["2020-06-01", 0.05], ["2020-06-01", 0.05], ["2020-06-01", 0.05], ["2020-06-01", 0.05], ["2020-06-02", 0.05], ["2020-06-02", 0.045], ["2020-06-02", 0.03], ["2020-06-02", 0.03], ["2020-06-02", 0.02], ["2020-06-02", 0.02], ["2020-06-02", 0.02], ["2020-06-02", 0.02], ["2020-06-03", 0.02], ["2020-06-03", 0.02], ["2020-06-03", 0.02], ["2020-06-03", 0.015], ["2020-06-03", 0.02], ["2020-06-03", 0.02], ["2020-06-03", 0.02], ["2020-06-03", 0.02], ["2020-06-03", 0.035], ["2020-06-03", 0.015], ["2020-06-04", 0.035], ["2020-06-04", 0.03], ["2020-06-04", 0.03], ["2020-06-04", 0.03], ["2020-06-04", 0.03], ["2020-06-04", 0.04], ["2020-06-05", 0.04], ["2020-06-05", 0.04], ["2020-06-05", 0.04], ["2020-06-06", 0.025], ["2020-06-06", 0.03], ["2020-06-06", 0.05], ["2020-06-07", 0.05], ["2020-06-07", 0.05], ["2020-06-07", 0.05], ["2020-06-08", 0.05], ["2020-06-08", 0.05], ["2020-06-08", 0.05], ["2020-06-09", 0.05], ["2020-06-09", 0.05], ["2020-06-09", 0.05], ["2020-06-09", 0.05], ["2020-06-11", 0.05], ["2020-06-11", 0.05], ["2020-06-11", 0.05], ["2020-06-11", 0.05], ["2020-06-11", 0.05], ["2020-06-11", 0.05], ["2020-06-11", 0.05], ["2020-06-11", 0.05], ["2020-06-11", 0.06], ["2020-06-11", 0.05], ["2020-06-11", 0.05], ["2020-06-11", 0.05], ["2020-06-11", 0.05], ["2020-06-11", 0.06], ["2020-06-11", 0.05], ["2020-06-11", 0.05], ["2020-06-12", 0.05], ["2020-06-12", 0.05], ["2020-06-12", 0.05], ["2020-06-12", 0.05], ["2020-06-12", 0.05], ["2020-06-12", 0.05], ["2020-06-12", 0.05], ["2020-06-12", 0.05], ["2020-06-12", 0.05], ["2020-06-12", 0.05], ["2020-06-12", 0.07], ["2020-06-12", 0.06], ["2020-06-12", 0.05], ["2020-06-12", 0.06], ["2020-06-12", 0.07], ["2020-06-12", 0.07], ["2020-06-12", 0.07], ["2020-06-12", 0.07], ["2020-06-12", 0.07], ["2020-06-12", 0.07], ["2020-06-12", 0.1], ["2020-06-12", 0.1], ["2020-06-12", 0.1], ["2020-06-12", 0.1], ["2020-06-12", 0.1], ["2020-06-12", 0.16], ["2020-06-12", 0.2], ["2020-06-12", 0.2], ["2020-06-12", 0.2], ["2020-06-12", 0.24], ["2020-06-12", 0.2], ["2020-06-12", 0.24], ["2020-06-12", 0.28], ["2020-06-12", 0.28], ["2020-06-12", 0.29], ["2020-06-12", 0.325], ["2020-06-12", 0.325], ["2020-06-12", 0.3], ["2020-06-12", 0.3], ["2020-06-12", 0.325], ["2020-06-12", 0.325], ["2020-06-12", 0.325], ["2020-06-12", 0.35], ["2020-06-13", 0.45], ["2020-06-13", 0.4], ["2020-06-13", 0.335], ["2020-06-13", 0.4], ["2020-06-13", 0.475], ["2020-06-13", 0.475], ["2020-06-13", 0.45], ["2020-06-13", 0.45], ["2020-06-13", 0.4], ["2020-06-13", 0.4], ["2020-06-13", 0.4], ["2020-06-13", 0.4], ["2020-06-13", 0.45], ["2020-06-13", 0.35], ["2020-06-13", 0.375], ["2020-06-13", 0.335], ["2020-06-13", 0.31], ["2020-06-13", 0.32], ["2020-06-13", 0.32], ["2020-06-13", 0.335], ["2020-06-13", 0.335], ["2020-06-13", 0.335], ["2020-06-13", 0.32], ["2020-06-14", 0.32], ["2020-06-14", 0.32], ["2020-06-14", 0.335], ["2020-06-14", 0.335], ["2020-06-14", 0.335], ["2020-06-14", 0.31], ["2020-06-14", 0.31], ["2020-06-14", 0.3], ["2020-06-14", 0.25], ["2020-06-14", 0.25], ["2020-06-14", 0.25], ["2020-06-14", 0.25], ["2020-06-14", 0.25], ["2020-06-15", 0.25], ["2020-06-15", 0.25], ["2020-06-15", 0.225], ["2020-06-15", 0.225], ["2020-06-15", 0.2], ["2020-06-15", 0.225], ["2020-06-15", 0.2], ["2020-06-15", 0.25], ["2020-06-16", 0.25], ["2020-06-16", 0.225], ["2020-06-16", 0.225], ["2020-06-16", 0.2], ["2020-06-16", 0.2], ["2020-06-17", 0.2], ["2020-06-17", 0.2], ["2020-06-17", 0.2], ["2020-06-17", 0.2], ["2020-06-17", 0.2], ["2020-06-17", 0.2], ["2020-06-17", 0.2], ["2020-06-18", 0.2], ["2020-06-18", 0.195], ["2020-06-18", 0.19], ["2020-06-19", 0.19], ["2020-06-19", 0.195], ["2020-06-19", 0.19], ["2020-06-19", 0.2], ["2020-06-19", 0.19], ["2020-06-21", 0.19], ["2020-06-21", 0.2], ["2020-06-22", 0.18], ["2020-06-22", 0.18], ["2020-06-22", 0.175], ["2020-06-22", 0.16], ["2020-06-22", 0.15], ["2020-06-22", 0.15], ["2020-06-23", 0.15], ["2020-06-23", 0.15], ["2020-06-23", 0.15], ["2020-06-24", 0.15], ["2020-06-25", 0.15], ["2020-06-25", 0.15], ["2020-06-27", 0.15], ["2020-06-27", 0.15], ["2020-06-28", 0.15], ["2020-06-28", 0.15], ["2020-06-28", 0.15], ["2020-06-29", 0.15], ["2020-06-30", 0.15], ["2020-07-01", 0.15], ["2020-07-02", 0.15], ["2020-07-02", 0.15], ["2020-07-02", 0.15], ["2020-07-03", 0.15], ["2020-07-04", 0.15], ["2020-07-04", 0.15], ["2020-07-05", 0.15], ["2020-07-05", 0.15], ["2020-07-05", 0.15], ["2020-07-06", 0.15], ["2020-07-07", 0.15], ["2020-07-09", 0.15], ["2020-07-09", 0.15], ["2020-07-10", 0.15], ["2020-07-10", 0.15], ["2020-07-10", 0.15], ["2020-07-11", 0.15], ["2020-07-12", 0.15], ["2020-07-13", 0.15], ["2020-07-13", 0.15], ["2020-07-15", 0.15], ["2020-07-15", 0.15], ["2020-07-15", 0.15], ["2020-07-15", 0.15], ["2020-07-15", 0.15], ["2020-07-15", 0.15], ["2020-07-16", 0.15], ["2020-07-16", 0.15], ["2020-07-16", 0.15], ["2020-07-17", 0.15], ["2020-07-20", 0.15], ["2020-07-21", 0.15], ["2020-07-21", 0.15], ["2020-07-22", 0.15], ["2020-07-23", 0.15], ["2020-07-23", 0.15], ["2020-07-23", 0.15], ["2020-07-23", 0.15], ["2020-07-23", 0.15], ["2020-07-24", 0.15], ["2020-07-24", 0.15], ["2020-07-25", 0.15], ["2020-07-25", 0.15], ["2020-07-25", 0.15], ["2020-07-25", 0.15], ["2020-07-25", 0.15], ["2020-07-26", 0.15], ["2020-07-26", 0.15], ["2020-07-27", 0.15], ["2020-07-28", 0.15], ["2020-07-29", 0.15], ["2020-07-29", 0.15], ["2020-07-29", 0.15], ["2020-07-29", 0.15], ["2020-07-30", 0.15], ["2020-07-30", 0.15], ["2020-07-31", 0.15], ["2020-07-31", 0.15], ["2020-07-31", 0.15], ["2020-08-01", 0.15], ["2020-08-02", 0.15], ["2020-08-02", 0.15], ["2020-08-02", 0.15], ["2020-08-03", 0.15], ["2020-08-03", 0.15], ["2020-08-03", 0.15], ["2020-08-04", 0.15], ["2020-08-04", 0.15], ["2020-08-05", 0.15], ["2020-08-06", 0.15], ["2020-08-07", 0.17], ["2020-08-07", 0.17], ["2020-08-07", 0.17], ["2020-08-07", 0.17], ["2020-08-07", 0.17]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1638 | True |
2023-01-01 | Before 1 January 2023, will the US officially rejoin the JCPOA? | binary |
<p>Obstacles standing in the way of the US rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) include the issues of current US sanctions against Iran and Iran's resumed production of highly enriched uranium (<a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-iran-nuclear-deal" target="_blank">Council on Foreign Relations</a>, <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-nuclear-talks-2022-options/31634579.html" target="_blank">Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty</a>, <a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2021-12/news/irans-nuclear-growth-puts-deal-risk" target="_blank">Arms Control Association</a>, <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46663" target="_blank">Congressional Research Service</a>). The US rejoining the JCPOA under revised terms would count.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 18 February 2022</span>: If an agreement for the US to officially rejoin the JCPOA is contingent on Senate or congressional approval, the US would not be considered to have officially rejoined unless and until that contingency were fulfilled.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-01-01 | gjopen | ["https://lite.cnn.com/en/article/h_40ec1c76f9f1bd3d9324a5e4418fd28f", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/19/iran", "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/biden-israels-herzog-discuss-irans-nuclear-threat-2022-10-26/", "https://www.iranintl.com/en/202208300026", "https://time.com/6199552/iran-nuclear-power-ehud-barak/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-world-needs-more-its-oil-2022-09-05/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-israels-lapid-speak-amid-discussions-possible-iran-nuclear-deal-2022-08-31/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-nuclear-negotiators-return-tehran-vienna-irna-2022-08-08/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action#Review_period_in_the_United_States_Congress", "https://twitter.com/StLiechtenstein/status/1568574750112325633", "https://www.reuters.com/world/iranian-foreign-ministry-says-washington-lacks-political-will-revive-nuclear-2022-10-24/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-us-trying-violate-sovereignty-over-unrest-warns-response-2022-09-26/?utm_source=reddit.com", "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-is-not-a-willing-partner-reviving-nuclear-deal-us-says-2022-09-13/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Nuclear_Agreement_Review_Act_of_2015", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/13/us-willing-to-kill-iran-deal-to-keep-irgc-on-terror-list-biden", "https://www.axios.com/2022/08/28/iran-deal-talks-mossad-visit-congress-biden", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/nuclear-deal-with-iran-off-the-table-for-time-being-us-has-indicated-to-israel/", "https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1568947575419437060", "https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220803-us-envoy-heading-to-vienna-to-resume-iran-nuclear-talks", "https://www.rferl.org/a/31989354.html", "https://peoplesdispatch.org/2022/11/23/iran-starts-enriching-uranium-at-60-purity-in-response-to-iaea-resolution/", "https://twitter.com/IranIntl_En/status/1563406474776178688", "https://news.google.com/search?q=jcpoa&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen", "https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/08/iran-nuclear-deal-devil-remains-details#ixzz7cfnSQYZm", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-15/iran-vows-to-give-its-response-on-nuclear-deal-text-on-monday"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2022-01-14 | 0.0 | [["2022-01-14", 0.435], ["2022-01-14", 0.355], ["2022-01-14", 0.37666666666666665], ["2022-01-14", 0.36125], ["2022-01-15", 0.376], ["2022-01-15", 0.315], ["2022-01-15", 0.286], ["2022-01-15", 0.205], ["2022-01-15", 0.162], ["2022-01-15", 0.165], ["2022-01-15", 0.149], ["2022-01-15", 0.164], ["2022-01-16", 0.222], ["2022-01-16", 0.242], ["2022-01-16", 0.3654545454545455], ["2022-01-16", 0.2827272727272727], ["2022-01-17", 0.2675], ["2022-01-17", 0.28583333333333333], ["2022-01-17", 0.31], ["2022-01-17", 0.37714285714285717], ["2022-01-17", 0.38785714285714284], ["2022-01-17", 0.3526666666666667], ["2022-01-18", 0.39625], ["2022-01-18", 0.349375], ["2022-01-18", 0.35294117647058826], ["2022-01-18", 0.3527777777777778], ["2022-01-18", 0.3433333333333333], ["2022-01-19", 0.3211111111111111], ["2022-01-19", 0.25894736842105265], ["2022-01-20", 0.2495], ["2022-01-20", 0.2485], ["2022-01-21", 0.2485], ["2022-01-21", 0.23666666666666666], ["2022-01-21", 0.2719047619047619], ["2022-01-22", 0.2872727272727273], ["2022-01-24", 0.2190909090909091], 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0.03], ["2022-12-14", 0.0298], ["2022-12-19", 0.0247], ["2022-12-19", 0.0188], ["2022-12-20", 0.0182], ["2022-12-21", 0.0136], ["2022-12-23", 0.013], ["2022-12-24", 0.013], ["2022-12-25", 0.0118], ["2022-12-25", 0.0114], ["2022-12-26", 0.0091], ["2022-12-27", 0.0084], ["2022-12-29", 0.0084], ["2022-12-30", 0.0036], ["2022-12-31", 0.0035], ["2023-01-01", 0.0035]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2244 | True |
2021-09-01 | Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021? | binary |
<p>CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners (<a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf" target="_blank">FEMA</a>). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, "terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) (<a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331" target="_blank">Cornell</a>). A foreign terrorist organization (FTO) is an organization designated as an FTO by the US Department of State (<a href="https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/" target="_blank">State.gov</a>). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-09-01 | gjopen | ["https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/12/24/2020-appears-to-be-a-good-year-for-counterterrorism/", "https://www.foxnews.com/us/us-soldier-arrested-plot-to-blow-up-nyc-9-11-memorial", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1EqhB5Oem8", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-large-bitcoin-payments-to-rightwing-activists-a-month-before-capitol-riot-linked-to-foreign-account-181954668.html", "https://www.businessinsider.com/riley-june-williams-given-new-charges-accused-stealing-pelosi-laptop-2021-1?IR=T", "https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/travelers/from-other-countries.html", "https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense/national-security/afghanistan-refugee-crisis-terrorism", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1780-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-either-directed-or-inspired-by-a-foreign-terrorist-organization-before-1-september-2021/www.nytimes.com/2021/01/07/world/americas/what-is-a-coup-attempt.html", "https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories/syria-travel-advisory.html", "http://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/07/world/americas/what-is-a-coup-attempt.html", "https://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/GTI-2020-web-1.pdf", "https://www.thecipherbrief.com/article/china/are-we-ready-for-another-shock"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2020-09-11 | 0.0 | [["2020-09-11", 0.5], ["2020-09-11", 0.0], ["2020-09-11", 0.005], ["2020-09-11", 0.01], ["2020-09-11", 0.015], ["2020-09-11", 0.025], ["2020-09-11", 0.035], ["2020-09-12", 0.04], ["2020-09-12", 0.04], ["2020-09-12", 0.045], ["2020-09-12", 0.065], ["2020-09-12", 0.08], ["2020-09-12", 0.08], ["2020-09-12", 0.065], ["2020-09-12", 0.05], ["2020-09-12", 0.065], ["2020-09-13", 0.02], ["2020-09-13", 0.035], ["2020-09-13", 0.035], ["2020-09-13", 0.03], ["2020-09-13", 0.055], ["2020-09-13", 0.06], ["2020-09-13", 0.08], ["2020-09-13", 0.09], ["2020-09-14", 0.06], ["2020-09-14", 0.07], ["2020-09-14", 0.07], ["2020-09-14", 0.07], ["2020-09-15", 0.06], ["2020-09-15", 0.055], ["2020-09-15", 0.055], ["2020-09-16", 0.06], ["2020-09-16", 0.06], ["2020-09-16", 0.055], ["2020-09-17", 0.05], ["2020-09-17", 0.05], ["2020-09-18", 0.05], ["2020-09-18", 0.05], ["2020-09-18", 0.05], ["2020-09-18", 0.05], ["2020-09-18", 0.05], ["2020-09-18", 0.05], ["2020-09-19", 0.05], ["2020-09-19", 0.05], ["2020-09-19", 0.05], ["2020-09-19", 0.05], ["2020-09-19", 0.05], ["2020-09-19", 0.065], ["2020-09-20", 0.05], ["2020-09-20", 0.05], ["2020-09-21", 0.05], ["2020-09-22", 0.065], ["2020-09-23", 0.095], ["2020-09-23", 0.1], ["2020-09-23", 0.09], ["2020-09-24", 0.1], ["2020-09-25", 0.1], ["2020-09-25", 0.1], ["2020-09-26", 0.1], ["2020-09-28", 0.1], ["2020-09-29", 0.1], ["2020-09-29", 0.1], ["2020-09-29", 0.1], ["2020-09-30", 0.1], ["2020-09-30", 0.1], ["2020-10-01", 0.1], ["2020-10-02", 0.1], ["2020-10-02", 0.1], ["2020-10-03", 0.1], ["2020-10-04", 0.1], ["2020-10-04", 0.1], ["2020-10-04", 0.1], ["2020-10-05", 0.1], ["2020-10-05", 0.095], ["2020-10-06", 0.095], ["2020-10-07", 0.09], ["2020-10-07", 0.085], ["2020-10-07", 0.075], ["2020-10-09", 0.075], ["2020-10-11", 0.085], ["2020-10-12", 0.07], ["2020-10-13", 0.07], ["2020-10-13", 0.07], ["2020-10-14", 0.06], ["2020-10-14", 0.06], ["2020-10-15", 0.065], ["2020-10-18", 0.065], ["2020-10-19", 0.065], ["2020-10-20", 0.055], ["2020-10-20", 0.05], ["2020-10-22", 0.055], ["2020-10-24", 0.05], ["2020-10-25", 0.05], ["2020-10-27", 0.05], ["2020-10-28", 0.05], ["2020-10-29", 0.05], ["2020-11-02", 0.05], ["2020-11-03", 0.05], ["2020-11-03", 0.05], ["2020-11-06", 0.05], ["2020-11-08", 0.05], ["2020-11-08", 0.05], ["2020-11-11", 0.05], ["2020-11-12", 0.05], 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["2021-08-30", 0.01], ["2021-08-30", 0.01], ["2021-08-31", 0.01], ["2021-08-31", 0.01], ["2021-09-01", 0.01]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1780 | True |
2021-06-21 | In NCAA v. Alston, will the Supreme Court rule that NCAA rules restricting education-related benefits for student-athletes violate federal antitrust law? | binary |
<p>The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) has various rules defining the eligibility of many athletes to participate in college sports, including caps on education-based benefits (<a href="https://www.ncaa.org/about/student-athlete-eligibility" target="_blank">NCAA</a>). Certain athletes sued claiming that such caps violate federal antitrust law (<a href="https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/breaking-down-the-ncaas-forthcoming-supreme-court-battle-with-its-big-brother-status-and-amateurism-at-stake/" target="_blank">CBS Sports</a>, <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-512" target="_blank">Oyez</a>). The athletes prevailed in district court and in the 9th Circuit (<a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-collegiate-athletic-association-v-alston/" target="_blank">SCOTUSblog</a>). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." Oral arguments are scheduled for 31 March 2021 (<a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/calendars/MonthlyArgumentCalMarch2021.html" target="_blank">Supremecourt.gov</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-06-21 | gjopen | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Collegiate_Athletic_Association_v._Alston", "https://www.insider.com/college-admissions-scandal-full-list-people-sentenced-2019-9", "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/21/supreme-court-rules-for-college-athletes-in-compensation-dispute-with-ncaa.html", "https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/ncaa-council-unlikely-to-recommend-name-image-likeness-rules-as-states-laws-set-to-go-into-effect/", "https://www.supremecourt.gov/search.aspx?filename=/docket/docketfiles/html/public/20-512.html", "https://ballotpedia.org/SCOTUS_case_reversal_rates_", "https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcripts/2020/20-512_g314.pdf", "https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2021/03/31/supreme-court-grills-ncaa-compensation-case/4821059001/", "https://abovethelaw.com/2021/05/the-alston-oral-arguments-a-citations-focused-perspective/", "https://www.bakerlaw.com/alerts/supreme-court-to-decide-ncaa-antitrust-case-on-college-athlete-compensation", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lori_Loughlin", "https://sports.yahoo.com/doj-seeks-join-supreme-court-223630810.html", "https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/20/20A24/149461/20200805105637321_Attachment%201%20-%20Alston-Ninth%20Circuit%20merits%20opinion%205-18-2020.pdf", "https://www.clearygottlieb.com/-/media/organize-archive/cgsh/files/publication-pdfs/antitrust-decisions-of-the-us-supreme-court.pdf", "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/31/supreme-court-appears-to-favor-college-athletes-in-ncaa-pay-case.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jane_Buckingham", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Felicity_Huffman", "https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-collegiate-athletic-association-v-alston/", "https://www.si.com/college/2021/05/27/legislation-introduced-collective-bargaining-rights-college-athletes-bernie-sanders", "https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/31172473/supreme-court-questions-validity-amateurism-ncaa-business-model", "https://www.c-span.org/video/?508652-1/student-athlete-compensation-consolidated-oral-argument", "https://www.ropesgray.com/-/media/Files/articles/2014/July/Summer14-PopofskyC.pdf?la=en&hash=3B6CDB12F8F459A9EFCEEB08BC76A4E4C79E5008", "https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://cdn.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastore/opinions/2020/05/18/19-15566.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiNuoHpiYvwAhUgFVkFHQoVArAQFjACegQIGxAC&usg=AOvVaw1bMRJtkSMYSIejok2kSwTn", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_college_admissions_bribery_scandal", "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=William_Rick_Singer&redirect=no"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2021-02-23 | 1.0 | [["2021-02-24", 0.85], ["2021-02-25", 0.565], ["2021-02-25", 0.66], ["2021-02-25", 0.68], ["2021-02-25", 0.66], ["2021-02-25", 0.47], ["2021-02-25", 0.28], ["2021-02-25", 0.305], ["2021-02-25", 0.28], 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2023-09-01 | Will a crewed Boeing Starliner spacecraft successfully dock with the International Space Station (ISS) before 1 September 2023? | binary |
<div>After a series of delays, Boeing's Starliner spacecraft has been scheduled for its first launch with a crew aboard for July 2023 (<a href="https://www.space.com/boeing-starliner-first-crewed-flight-delayed-july-2023" target="_blank">Space.com</a>).<p></p>
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</div> | 2023-09-01 | gjopen | ["https://starlinerupdates.com/", "https://www.thespacereview.com/article/4597/1", "https://www.space.com/boeing-starliner-first-crewed-flight-delayed-july-2023", "https://blogs.nasa.gov/commercialcrew/2023/05/26/nasa-boeing-provide-update-on-starliner-flight-test-readiness/", "https://www.space.com/boeing-starliner-launch-delay-march-2024", "https://www.kennedyspacecenter.com/launches-and-events/events-calendar?pageindex=1&categories=Rocket%20Launches", "https://www.popsci.com/science/nasa-boeing-starliner-space-capsule/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/06/01/commerical-crew-boeing-spacex/", "https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/space/despite-climbing-costs-boeing-says-it-committed-starliner", "https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/06/boeing-stands-down-from-starliner-launch-to-address-recently-found-problems/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Crewed_Flight_Test"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2023-05-26 | 0.0 | [["2023-05-26", 0.5], ["2023-05-26", 0.31], ["2023-05-26", 0.4067], ["2023-05-26", 0.43], ["2023-05-26", 0.524], ["2023-05-27", 0.52], ["2023-05-27", 0.55], ["2023-05-27", 0.55], ["2023-05-27", 0.5038], ["2023-05-27", 0.5056], ["2023-05-27", 0.491], ["2023-05-27", 0.46], ["2023-05-27", 0.4582], ["2023-05-27", 0.4925], ["2023-05-28", 0.4554], ["2023-05-29", 0.4229], ["2023-05-30", 0.365], ["2023-05-30", 0.354], ["2023-05-30", 0.349], ["2023-05-30", 0.306], ["2023-05-31", 0.286], ["2023-05-31", 0.271], ["2023-06-01", 0.343], ["2023-06-01", 0.334], ["2023-06-02", 0.333], ["2023-06-02", 0.333], ["2023-06-02", 0.3255], ["2023-06-02", 0.285], ["2023-06-03", 0.274], ["2023-06-05", 0.297], ["2023-06-05", 0.277], ["2023-06-06", 0.271], ["2023-06-06", 0.184], ["2023-06-06", 0.166], ["2023-06-07", 0.188], ["2023-06-09", 0.196], ["2023-06-10", 0.171], ["2023-06-10", 0.162], ["2023-06-11", 0.156], ["2023-06-11", 0.18], ["2023-06-12", 0.171], ["2023-06-13", 0.15], ["2023-06-13", 0.138], ["2023-06-13", 0.132], ["2023-06-14", 0.133], ["2023-06-14", 0.129], ["2023-06-14", 0.127], ["2023-06-15", 0.102], ["2023-06-15", 0.122], ["2023-06-15", 0.107], ["2023-06-16", 0.082], ["2023-06-16", 0.077], ["2023-06-18", 0.075], ["2023-06-19", 0.07], ["2023-06-19", 0.0709], ["2023-06-20", 0.0745], ["2023-06-20", 0.0736], ["2023-06-21", 0.0673], ["2023-06-21", 0.0791], ["2023-06-21", 0.0755], ["2023-06-21", 0.0709], ["2023-06-22", 0.0709], ["2023-06-22", 0.07], ["2023-06-23", 0.065], ["2023-06-23", 0.0692], ["2023-06-26", 0.0683], ["2023-06-27", 0.0667], ["2023-06-30", 0.0508], ["2023-07-02", 0.0508], ["2023-07-02", 0.0492], ["2023-07-03", 0.0425], ["2023-07-04", 0.04], ["2023-07-05", 0.0392], ["2023-07-06", 0.035], ["2023-07-07", 0.0358], ["2023-07-07", 0.0317], ["2023-07-08", 0.0292], ["2023-07-08", 0.0123], ["2023-07-09", 0.0085], ["2023-07-09", 0.0079], ["2023-07-11", 0.0736], ["2023-07-13", 0.0729], ["2023-07-16", 0.0714], ["2023-07-16", 0.0707], ["2023-07-18", 0.0721], ["2023-07-19", 0.0673], ["2023-07-19", 0.0673], ["2023-07-23", 0.0673], ["2023-07-24", 0.068], ["2023-07-24", 0.0673], ["2023-07-26", 0.066], ["2023-07-27", 0.0653], ["2023-07-30", 0.0633], ["2023-07-31", 0.0633], ["2023-08-04", 0.0767], ["2023-08-10", 0.0767], ["2023-08-12", 0.0767], ["2023-08-12", 0.0147], ["2023-08-13", 0.0138], ["2023-08-14", 0.0138], ["2023-08-14", 0.0131], ["2023-08-14", 0.0131], ["2023-08-14", 0.0131], ["2023-08-17", 0.0124], ["2023-08-19", 0.0006], ["2023-08-21", 0.0006], ["2023-08-21", 0.0006], ["2023-08-22", 0.0], ["2023-08-23", 0.0], ["2023-08-23", 0.0], ["2023-08-24", 0.0029], ["2023-08-30", 0.0028], ["2023-08-30", 0.0028], ["2023-08-31", 0.0028], ["2023-08-31", 0.0028], ["2023-09-01", 0.0028], ["2023-09-01", 0.0028]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2894 | True |