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2018-01-01 | Will the WHO confirm more than 10 cases of Marburg in 2017? | binary | There have been confirmed cases of Marburg, a deadly virus similar to Ebola, for the first time since 2014 (<a href = "http://www.who.int/csr/don/15-november-2017-marburg-uganda-kenya/en/"target="_blank">World Health Organization</a>, <a href = "http://time.com/5013603/what-is-marburg-virus/"target="-blank">Time Magazine</a>, <a href = "http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/31/health/marburg-virus-uganda/index.html"target="_blank">CNN</a>). Question will be resolved based on the latest WHO data available on 31 December 2017 (<a href = "http://www.who.int/csr/don/archive/disease/marburg_virus_disease/en/"target="_blank">WHO</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
There were not more than 10 cases of Marburg confirmed in 2017. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
| 2018-01-04 | gjopen | ["http://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371/journal.ppat.1002877", "http://www.who.int/csr/don/15-november-2017-marburg-uganda-kenya/en/", "http://www.who.int/csr/don/15-november-2017-marburg-uganda-kenya/en/ng", "http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2017/uganda-marburg-virus-disease/en/", "http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs_marburg/en/", "http://who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2017/uganda-marburg-virus-disease/en/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-11-28 | 0.0 | [["2017-11-29", 0.5], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.225], ["2017-11-29", 0.505], ["2017-11-29", 0.38], ["2017-11-29", 0.56], ["2017-11-29", 0.2], ["2017-11-30", 0.15], ["2017-11-30", 0.05], ["2017-11-30", 0.005], ["2017-11-30", 0.01], ["2017-11-30", 0.1], ["2017-11-30", 0.08], ["2017-11-30", 0.1], ["2017-11-30", 0.125], ["2017-11-30", 0.125], ["2017-11-30", 0.09], ["2017-11-30", 0.09], ["2017-12-01", 0.09], ["2017-12-01", 0.07], 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2015-12-31 | Will there be a dissolution or suspension of the Northern Irish Assembly before the end of the year? | binary | The political crisis in Northern Ireland threatens the power-sharing agreement between the Democratic Unionists and Sinn Fein (http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/northern-irelands-political-crisis-the-assembly-has-delivered-little-so-far-but-most-unionists-and-republicans-want-it-to-survive-10497317.html , http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-34217875 , http://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/governments-look-to-monday-talks-to-resolve-north-crisis-1.2348462 ). | 2016-01-06 | gjopen | ["http://www.irishnews.com/opinion/columnists/2015/10/22/news/alternative-to-stormont-is-savage-tory-cuts-301428/", "http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/nov/17/northern-ireland-power-sharing-saved", "http://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/northern-ireland-news/stormont-deal-held-up-by-stand-off-on-national-security-1-7065739", "http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/peter-robinson-tax-credits-is-latest-roadblock-to-stormont-deal-34154422.html", "http://utv.ie/News/2015/11/17/As-It-Happened-Deal-reached-at-Stormont-49029", "http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2015/12/theresa-villiers-mp-an-agreement-that-brings-new-hope-to-northern-ireland.html", "http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/stormont-house-agreement-offers-most-comprehensive-proposals-yet-for-victims-34145429.html", "http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/news-analysis/put-victims-and-survivors-at-the-centre-of-a-new-stormont-deal-34153043.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/44030", "http://nyti.ms/1RLab4S", "http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/parties-edging-closer-to-stormont-deal-34180807.html", "http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/republic-of-ireland/enda-kenny-meets-david-cameron-as-stormont-power-share-rescue-bid-ramped-up-34181914.html", "http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/northern-ireland-talks-may-not-be-concluded-this-week-says-villiers-34188766.html", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/10/a-super-long-picky-post/", "http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-34757808", "http://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/deal-reached-in-stormont-talks-on-northern-ireland-1.2433198", "http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-34850196", "http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/theresa-villiers-warns-political-leaders-its-make-your-mind-up-time-34203711.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/60351", "http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/republic-of-ireland/enda-kenny-hopes-for-stormont-deal-to-be-reached-within-days-34180318.html", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/12/super-friday-night/", "http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/stormont-deal-needs-to-be-reached-inside-10-days-robinson-says-1.2410651", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/14/excluding-outliers-in-the-smart-crowd-forecast/", "http://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/northern-ireland-news/we-will-not-guarantee-support-for-stormont-house-deal-sdlp-1-7066853#ixzz3rj4JiA4i", "http://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/quitting-stormont-would-leave-us-in-a-worse-system-1-7049088#ixzz3qvXT2Mp6"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2015-09-21 | 0.0 | [["2015-09-21", 0.25], ["2015-09-22", 0.25], ["2015-09-22", 0.35], ["2015-09-22", 0.25], ["2015-09-22", 0.275], ["2015-09-22", 0.225], ["2015-09-22", 0.225], ["2015-09-22", 0.25], ["2015-09-23", 0.24], ["2015-09-23", 0.22], ["2015-09-24", 0.195], ["2015-09-24", 0.15], ["2015-09-24", 0.15], ["2015-09-25", 0.15], ["2015-09-25", 0.15], ["2015-09-25", 0.15], ["2015-09-25", 0.15], ["2015-09-25", 0.15], ["2015-09-26", 0.145], ["2015-09-26", 0.145], ["2015-09-26", 0.14], ["2015-09-26", 0.14], ["2015-09-27", 0.14], ["2015-09-27", 0.15], ["2015-09-27", 0.15], ["2015-09-27", 0.15], 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2018-01-01 | Will Syria hold UN-backed elections before 1 January 2018? | binary | In November 2015, foreign governments participating in UN-backed talks agreed that Syria should hold new elections in the next two years (<a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-shooting-syria-idUSKCN0T30Q520151114#8cKdE8OtClo8OiDS.97" target = "_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/19/world/middleeast/syria-talks-isis.html" target = "_blank">NY Times</a>). UN-backed elections could include the supervisory role stipulated in the Vienna communique (see Article 4 of the <a href = "http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/s_res_2254.pdf" target = "_blank">Security Council Resolution</a>), other forms of active involvement in the elections (<a href = "http://www.un.org/en/peacekeeping/issues/electoralassistance.shtml" target = "_blank">electoral assistance</a>) or statements of support (e.g., <a href = "http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=52419#.Vp5oAzYZ5ps" target = "_blank">Tanzania</a>, <a href = "http://allafrica.com/stories/201601080332.html" target = "_blank">Central African Republic</a>, <a href = "http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=52543#.Vp5pXzYZ5ps" target = "_blank">Myanmar</a>).
Recommend Question
<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/15-will-bashar-al-assad-cease-to-be-president-of-syria-before-1-march-2017" target = "_blank">Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017?</a>
<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/96-before-april-2016-will-the-french-army-or-foreign-legion-deploy-combat-troops-to-fight-the-islamic-state-on-the-ground-in-syria-or-iraq" target = "_blank">Before April 2016, will the French Army or Foreign Legion deploy combat troops to fight the Islamic State on the ground in Syria or Iraq?</a>
Syria did not hold UN-backed elections. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
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<hr>
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2018-03-13 | Before 1 July 2018, will Waymo launch a driverless transportation service open to the public? | binary | Alphabet's self-driving car company, Waymo, recently announced the testing of its driverless vehicles in Arizona and the planned launch of a driverless transportation service (<a href = "https://medium.com/waymo/with-waymo-in-the-drivers-seat-fully-self-driving-vehicles-can-transform-the-way-we-get-around-75e9622e829a"target="_blank">Medium</a>, <a href = "https://www.wired.com/story/waymo-google-arizona-phoenix-driverless-self-driving-cars/"target="_blank">Wired</a>, <a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-07/waymo-driverless-cars-are-now-driverless-in-ground-breaking-test"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href = "https://arstechnica.com/cars/2017/11/fully-driverless-cars-are-here/"target="_blank">Ars Technica</a>). A service offered to participants in Waymo's Early Rider Program (<a href = "https://waymo.com/apply/"target="_blank">Waymo</a>) will count. The presence of a safety operator inside the vehicles does not impact the resolution of this question, as long as that operator is not in the driver's seat.
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Waymo has launched a driverless transportation service open to the public via the Early Rider program (<a href = "http://fortune.com/2018/03/13/waymo-driverless-minivans-phoenix/"target="_blank">Fortune</a>, <a href = "https://techcrunch.com/2018/03/13/waymo-shows-off-what-its-like-to-ride-in-a-truly-driverless-self-driving-car/"target="_blank">Tech Crunch</a>. This question closed as "yes" with an end date of 13 March 2018.
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| 2018-04-04 | gjopen | ["https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/01/22/tesla-on-autopilot-slams-into-parked-fire-truck-on-freeway/", "https://waymo.com/apply/", "https://techcrunch.com/2018/01/29/waymo-orders-thousands-of-pacificas-for-2018-self-driving-fleet-rollout/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/04/technology/driverless-cars-testing.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/28/technology/uber-waymo-lawsuit.html", "http://ir.avisbudgetgroup.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=1047813", "https://spectrum.ieee.org/transportation/self-driving/the-first-fully-commercial-robocar-will-be-in-holland", "http://ir.avisbudgetgroup.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=1031344", "https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/02/13/google-just-made-an-announcement-that-should-terri.aspx", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/678934", "https://voyage.auto/", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/678934", "https://www.wired.com/story/waymo-launches-self-driving-minivans-fiat-chrysler/", "https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/23/davos-2018-uber-will-use-drivers-for-a-long-long-time.html", "https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/4609586/waymo-llc-v-uber-technologies-inc/?filed_after=&filed_before=&entry_gte=&entry_lte=&order_by=desc", "http://www.prodrivermags.com/news/785-waymo-gears-up-for-us-autonomous-ride-share-service-launch-in-2019", "https://qz.com/1146259/mercedes-got-caught-trashing-a-rental-tesla-model-x/", "https://www.kivitv.com/newsy/waymo-gets-approval-to-launch-a-commercial-ridehailing-service?autoplay=true", "https://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-think/transportation/self-driving/the-year-in-robocars", "https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/4609586/1/waymo-llc-v-uber-technologies-inc/", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2017/11/07/our-driverless-future-begins-waymo-transitions-to-robot-chauffeurs/", "http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-36XVJR/5830382640x0x964515/00E93506-3820-43C3-80F1-EAD08AD70AFA/CAR-USQ_Transcript_2017-11-15_4_.pdf", "http://fortune.com/2018/01/22/google-waymo-self-driving-minivans-atlanta/", "https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/02/robotaxi-permit-gets-arizonas-ok-waymo-will-start-service-in-2018/", "https://www.engadget.com/2018/02/24/fully-driverless-car-tests-california-april/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-11-17 | 1.0 | [["2017-11-17", 0.96], ["2017-11-17", 0.625], ["2017-11-18", 1.0], ["2017-11-18", 1.0], ["2017-11-18", 0.97], ["2017-11-18", 0.95], ["2017-11-18", 0.825], ["2017-11-18", 0.25], ["2017-11-18", 0.2], ["2017-11-18", 0.175], ["2017-11-19", 0.16], ["2017-11-19", 0.25], ["2017-11-19", 0.25], ["2017-11-19", 0.25], ["2017-11-19", 0.65], ["2017-11-20", 0.75], ["2017-11-20", 0.7], ["2017-11-20", 0.65], ["2017-11-20", 0.425], ["2017-11-20", 0.425], ["2017-11-21", 0.2], ["2017-11-21", 0.45], ["2017-11-21", 0.45], ["2017-11-22", 0.45], ["2017-11-22", 0.7], ["2017-11-22", 0.7], ["2017-11-22", 0.75], ["2017-11-23", 0.75], ["2017-11-24", 0.75], ["2017-11-25", 0.75], ["2017-11-25", 0.75], ["2017-11-26", 0.75], ["2017-11-27", 0.75], ["2017-11-27", 0.75], ["2017-11-27", 0.75], ["2017-11-27", 0.715], ["2017-11-28", 0.75], ["2017-11-28", 0.75], ["2017-11-28", 0.645], ["2017-11-28", 0.61], ["2017-11-28", 0.61], ["2017-11-29", 0.55], ["2017-11-30", 0.535], ["2017-12-01", 0.545], ["2017-12-01", 0.54], ["2017-12-02", 0.53], ["2017-12-02", 0.52], ["2017-12-04", 0.45], ["2017-12-04", 0.51], ["2017-12-04", 0.5], ["2017-12-04", 0.325], ["2017-12-04", 0.45], ["2017-12-05", 0.4], ["2017-12-05", 0.4], ["2017-12-06", 0.375], ["2017-12-07", 0.35], ["2017-12-08", 0.35], ["2017-12-09", 0.35], ["2017-12-10", 0.35], ["2017-12-13", 0.35], ["2017-12-14", 0.35], ["2017-12-15", 0.4], ["2017-12-16", 0.35], ["2017-12-16", 0.35], ["2017-12-18", 0.35], ["2017-12-19", 0.45], ["2017-12-19", 0.45], ["2017-12-20", 0.45], ["2017-12-20", 0.4], ["2017-12-21", 0.45], ["2017-12-22", 0.45], ["2017-12-23", 0.45], ["2017-12-25", 0.5], ["2017-12-25", 0.5], ["2017-12-26", 0.5], ["2017-12-28", 0.5], ["2017-12-28", 0.5], ["2017-12-29", 0.5], ["2017-12-31", 0.5], ["2017-12-31", 0.5], ["2017-12-31", 0.5], ["2017-12-31", 0.5], ["2017-12-31", 0.5], ["2017-12-31", 0.5], ["2017-12-31", 0.5], ["2018-01-01", 0.5], ["2018-01-01", 0.5], ["2018-01-01", 0.5], ["2018-01-01", 0.5], ["2018-01-01", 0.5], ["2018-01-02", 0.5], ["2018-01-02", 0.5], ["2018-01-02", 0.5], ["2018-01-02", 0.5], ["2018-01-02", 0.5], ["2018-01-02", 0.5], ["2018-01-03", 0.5], ["2018-01-03", 0.5], ["2018-01-03", 0.5], ["2018-01-03", 0.5], ["2018-01-04", 0.5], ["2018-01-04", 0.5], ["2018-01-04", 0.5], ["2018-01-04", 0.4], ["2018-01-05", 0.4], ["2018-01-05", 0.37], ["2018-01-05", 0.37], ["2018-01-05", 0.36], ["2018-01-05", 0.35], ["2018-01-05", 0.35], ["2018-01-05", 0.36], ["2018-01-05", 0.36], ["2018-01-05", 0.37], ["2018-01-06", 0.385], ["2018-01-06", 0.36], ["2018-01-06", 0.35], ["2018-01-06", 0.395], ["2018-01-06", 0.37], ["2018-01-06", 0.37], ["2018-01-07", 0.36], ["2018-01-07", 0.35], ["2018-01-07", 0.35], ["2018-01-07", 0.35], ["2018-01-07", 0.35], ["2018-01-07", 0.35], ["2018-01-07", 0.35], ["2018-01-07", 0.35], ["2018-01-08", 0.325], ["2018-01-08", 0.275], ["2018-01-08", 0.275], ["2018-01-08", 0.325], ["2018-01-09", 0.3], ["2018-01-09", 0.275], ["2018-01-10", 0.25], ["2018-01-11", 0.25], ["2018-01-11", 0.25], ["2018-01-11", 0.25], ["2018-01-11", 0.25], ["2018-01-11", 0.25], ["2018-01-12", 0.25], ["2018-01-13", 0.25], ["2018-01-13", 0.25], ["2018-01-13", 0.25], ["2018-01-13", 0.25], ["2018-01-14", 0.25], ["2018-01-14", 0.25], ["2018-01-14", 0.25], ["2018-01-15", 0.25], ["2018-01-15", 0.25], ["2018-01-16", 0.25], ["2018-01-16", 0.25], ["2018-01-17", 0.25], ["2018-01-17", 0.25], ["2018-01-17", 0.275], ["2018-01-18", 0.275], ["2018-01-19", 0.25], ["2018-01-19", 0.25], ["2018-01-19", 0.25], ["2018-01-20", 0.25], ["2018-01-21", 0.25], ["2018-01-22", 0.25], ["2018-01-22", 0.25], ["2018-01-23", 0.25], ["2018-01-23", 0.25], ["2018-01-23", 0.25], ["2018-01-23", 0.25], ["2018-01-23", 0.25], ["2018-01-23", 0.25], ["2018-01-24", 0.25], ["2018-01-24", 0.25], ["2018-01-25", 0.25], ["2018-01-25", 0.25], ["2018-01-26", 0.25], ["2018-01-27", 0.25], ["2018-01-27", 0.25], ["2018-01-28", 0.25], ["2018-01-28", 0.25], ["2018-01-28", 0.25], ["2018-01-28", 0.25], ["2018-01-30", 0.25], ["2018-01-30", 0.25], ["2018-01-30", 0.25], ["2018-01-31", 0.25], ["2018-01-31", 0.21], ["2018-02-01", 0.21], ["2018-02-01", 0.2], ["2018-02-02", 0.2], ["2018-02-03", 0.2], ["2018-02-03", 0.2], ["2018-02-03", 0.175], ["2018-02-03", 0.2], ["2018-02-03", 0.2], ["2018-02-03", 0.2], ["2018-02-04", 0.2], ["2018-02-04", 0.2], ["2018-02-05", 0.2], ["2018-02-05", 0.2], ["2018-02-06", 0.2], ["2018-02-06", 0.2], ["2018-02-07", 0.155], ["2018-02-07", 0.15], ["2018-02-07", 0.15], ["2018-02-07", 0.15], ["2018-02-08", 0.15], ["2018-02-09", 0.15], ["2018-02-09", 0.16], ["2018-02-09", 0.155], ["2018-02-10", 0.155], ["2018-02-11", 0.18], ["2018-02-11", 0.16], ["2018-02-11", 0.15], ["2018-02-11", 0.15], ["2018-02-11", 0.155], ["2018-02-11", 0.15], ["2018-02-11", 0.15], ["2018-02-12", 0.15], ["2018-02-12", 0.155], ["2018-02-13", 0.15], ["2018-02-14", 0.15], ["2018-02-14", 0.15], ["2018-02-14", 0.15], ["2018-02-15", 0.15], ["2018-02-15", 0.15], ["2018-02-16", 0.15], ["2018-02-17", 0.15], ["2018-02-17", 0.15], ["2018-02-18", 0.15], ["2018-02-18", 0.15], ["2018-02-18", 0.15], ["2018-02-18", 0.15], ["2018-02-19", 0.15], ["2018-02-21", 0.15], ["2018-02-22", 0.15], ["2018-02-22", 0.15], ["2018-02-23", 0.15], ["2018-02-23", 0.15], ["2018-02-24", 0.15], ["2018-02-24", 0.15], ["2018-02-24", 0.15], ["2018-02-25", 0.15], ["2018-02-25", 0.15], ["2018-02-25", 0.15], ["2018-02-26", 0.15], ["2018-02-26", 0.15], ["2018-02-27", 0.15], ["2018-02-27", 0.15], ["2018-02-28", 0.15], ["2018-02-28", 0.15], ["2018-02-28", 0.15], ["2018-03-01", 0.15], ["2018-03-01", 0.15], ["2018-03-03", 0.15], ["2018-03-03", 0.15], ["2018-03-03", 0.15], ["2018-03-03", 0.15], ["2018-03-04", 0.15], ["2018-03-05", 0.15], ["2018-03-06", 0.15], ["2018-03-07", 0.15], ["2018-03-08", 0.15], ["2018-03-09", 0.15], ["2018-03-10", 0.15], ["2018-03-11", 0.15], ["2018-03-12", 0.15], ["2018-03-13", 0.15], ["2018-03-13", 0.15]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/694 | True |
2017-12-23 | Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution concerning Somalia between 29 November 2017 and 22 December 2017 ? | binary | This question will resolve as "yes" if the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) adopts a resolution during the period of interest in which the country/region of interest appears in the short description in the <a href = "http://www.un.org/en/sc/documents/resolutions/2017.shtml"target="-blank">Security Council Resolution table</a> and/or is mentioned within the adopted resolution itself.
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<hr>
| 2018-01-02 | gjopen | ["http://www.un.org/en/sc/inc/pages/pdf/pow/powmonthly.pdf", "https://www.un.org/en/sc/documents/resolutions/2017.shtml", "https://www.un.org/en/sc/inc/pages/pdf/pow/powmonthly.pdf", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/630203", "https://www.un.org/en/sc/inc/pages/pdf/pow/forecast.pdf", "http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/s_res_2383.pdf", "http://www.africanews.com/2017/11/15/un-security-council-renews-arms-sanctions-on-eritrea-and-somalia//", "http://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1E81XF", "http://www.un.org/en/sc/inc/pages/pdf/sccycles.pdf", "http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/s_res_2385.pdf"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-11-28 | 0.0 | [["2017-11-29", 0.55], ["2017-11-29", 0.05], ["2017-11-29", 0.105], ["2017-11-29", 0.155], ["2017-11-29", 0.15], ["2017-11-29", 0.15], ["2017-11-30", 0.15], ["2017-11-30", 0.4], ["2017-11-30", 0.405], ["2017-11-30", 0.155], ["2017-11-30", 0.155], ["2017-11-30", 0.16], ["2017-11-30", 0.15], ["2017-11-30", 0.15], ["2017-11-30", 0.075], ["2017-11-30", 0.025], ["2017-11-30", 0.015], ["2017-11-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-01", 0.035], ["2017-12-01", 0.02], ["2017-12-01", 0.02], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.02], ["2017-12-01", 0.035], ["2017-12-02", 0.01], ["2017-12-02", 0.03], ["2017-12-02", 0.06], ["2017-12-02", 0.06], ["2017-12-02", 0.05], ["2017-12-02", 0.035], ["2017-12-02", 0.035], ["2017-12-03", 0.1], ["2017-12-03", 0.05], ["2017-12-04", 0.05], ["2017-12-04", 0.05], ["2017-12-04", 0.05], ["2017-12-04", 0.05], ["2017-12-04", 0.05], ["2017-12-04", 0.05], ["2017-12-04", 0.05], ["2017-12-04", 0.05], ["2017-12-04", 0.05], ["2017-12-04", 0.03], ["2017-12-05", 0.04], ["2017-12-05", 0.025], ["2017-12-05", 0.02], ["2017-12-05", 0.02], ["2017-12-05", 0.01], ["2017-12-05", 0.01], ["2017-12-06", 0.0], ["2017-12-06", 0.0], ["2017-12-06", 0.0], ["2017-12-06", 0.0], ["2017-12-07", 0.0], ["2017-12-07", 0.0], ["2017-12-08", 0.01], ["2017-12-08", 0.01], ["2017-12-08", 0.01], ["2017-12-08", 0.01], ["2017-12-08", 0.01], ["2017-12-09", 0.01], ["2017-12-09", 0.02], ["2017-12-09", 0.02], ["2017-12-09", 0.02], ["2017-12-09", 0.025], ["2017-12-10", 0.025], ["2017-12-10", 0.025], ["2017-12-10", 0.025], ["2017-12-10", 0.02], ["2017-12-10", 0.02], ["2017-12-10", 0.02], ["2017-12-11", 0.02], ["2017-12-11", 0.02], ["2017-12-11", 0.03], ["2017-12-11", 0.02], ["2017-12-12", 0.02], ["2017-12-12", 0.02], ["2017-12-12", 0.02], ["2017-12-12", 0.02], ["2017-12-12", 0.02], ["2017-12-13", 0.02], ["2017-12-13", 0.02], ["2017-12-13", 0.02], ["2017-12-13", 0.02], ["2017-12-13", 0.02], ["2017-12-14", 0.02], ["2017-12-14", 0.02], ["2017-12-14", 0.02], ["2017-12-14", 0.02], ["2017-12-15", 0.015], ["2017-12-15", 0.01], ["2017-12-15", 0.01], ["2017-12-15", 0.01], ["2017-12-15", 0.01], ["2017-12-15", 0.01], ["2017-12-16", 0.01], ["2017-12-16", 0.01], ["2017-12-16", 0.01], ["2017-12-16", 0.01], ["2017-12-16", 0.01], ["2017-12-16", 0.01], ["2017-12-16", 0.005], ["2017-12-16", 0.005], ["2017-12-16", 0.0], ["2017-12-16", 0.0], ["2017-12-17", 0.0], ["2017-12-17", 0.0], ["2017-12-18", 0.0], ["2017-12-18", 0.0], ["2017-12-18", 0.0], ["2017-12-18", 0.0], ["2017-12-18", 0.0], ["2017-12-18", 0.0], ["2017-12-18", 0.0], ["2017-12-18", 0.0], ["2017-12-18", 0.0], ["2017-12-18", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.01], ["2017-12-19", 0.01], ["2017-12-19", 0.01], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-21", 0.0], ["2017-12-21", 0.0], ["2017-12-21", 0.0], ["2017-12-21", 0.0], ["2017-12-21", 0.0], ["2017-12-21", 0.0], ["2017-12-21", 0.0], ["2017-12-21", 0.0], ["2017-12-21", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-23", 0.0], ["2017-12-23", 0.0], ["2017-12-23", 0.0], ["2017-12-23", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/765 | True |
2015-11-30 | Will there be an initial public offering on either the Shanghai Stock Exchange or the Shenzhen Stock Exchange before 1 January 2016? | binary | China suspended initial public offerings (IPOs) in early July (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-04/china-stock-brokers-set-up-19-billion-fund-to-stem-market-rout , http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/05/us-china-markets-brokerage-pledge-idUSKCN0PE08E20150705 , http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-setting-up-fund-to-stabilize-stock-market-1435991611 ). | 2015-12-07 | gjopen | ["http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/12/04/us-china-ipo-idUKKBN0TN02O20151204", "http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/27/china-bonds-idUSL3N13M2LN20151127#oxOOjdjL7TSZUsjI.99&quot", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-rigged-ipos-1449102648", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-27/china-explosives-maker-prices-ipo-as-share-sales-resume", "http://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking_news_detail.asp?id=69315&icid=1&d_str=", "http://www.legalink.ch/Root/Sites/legalink/Resources/Questionnaires/IPOs/Asia/Legalink%20IPO_China.pdf", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-03/china-stock-index-futures-climb-after-biggest-gain-in-a-month", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-01/china-s-central-bank-steps-up-cash-injections-amid-ipo-restart", "http://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ians/chinese-shares-reverse-fall-115113000551_1.html", "http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015-11/30/c_134868871.htm", "http://www.shanghaidaily.com/business/finance/Shares-drop-ahead-of-IPOs-next-week/shdaily.shtml", "http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/002783.SZ/key-developments#3XLBAf7LY213veTW.97", "http://asia.nikkei.com/Markets/Equities/IPOs-resuming-soon-as-market-regains-calm", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/52082", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-03/asian-futures-signal-more-stock-losses-on-draghi-disappointment", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/53609", "http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2015-11/30/content_22529946.htm", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/50556", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/4-will-there-be-an-initial-public-offering-on-either-the-shanghai-stock-exchange-or-the-shenzhen-stock-exchange-before-1-january-2016/www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/27/china-bonds-idUSL3N13M2LN20151127#oxOOjdjL7TSZUsjI.99&quot", "http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/27/china-bonds-idUSL3N13M2LN20151127#tG7F8LKMhKxSRhrD.97", "http://www.szse.cn/szseWeb/FrontController.szse?ACTIONID=7&AJAX=AJAX-TRUE&CATALOGID=1845&TABKEY=tab2", "http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SHCOMP:IND", "http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore/china-based-bhg-retail/2315844.html", "https://sg.news.yahoo.com/brief-hubei-kailong-chemicals-ipo-458-8-times-081333828--finance.html", "https://books.google.com/books?id=N8Gf_bdA0zcC&pg=PA336&lpg=PA336&dq=shenzhen+ipo+subscription+listing&source=bl&ots=sgEoYuq7Ps&sig=N8SvInQsRAuCpbr3f6Tk3iuO1IU&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjYvITowMHJAhUGQCYKHVGjCsIQ6AEINDAE#v=onepage&q=shenzhen%20ipo%20subscription%20listing&f=false"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2015-09-01 | 1.0 | [["2015-09-01", 0.645], ["2015-09-02", 0.425], ["2015-09-02", 0.425], ["2015-09-02", 0.425], ["2015-09-03", 0.275], ["2015-09-03", 0.3], ["2015-09-03", 0.3], ["2015-09-04", 0.3], ["2015-09-04", 0.35], ["2015-09-05", 0.35], ["2015-09-06", 0.35], ["2015-09-06", 0.325], ["2015-09-08", 0.3], ["2015-09-09", 0.33], ["2015-09-10", 0.3], ["2015-09-10", 0.275], ["2015-09-10", 0.275], ["2015-09-11", 0.25], ["2015-09-12", 0.25], ["2015-09-13", 0.25], ["2015-09-13", 0.22], ["2015-09-13", 0.235], ["2015-09-14", 0.21], ["2015-09-14", 0.21], ["2015-09-14", 0.2], ["2015-09-15", 0.2], ["2015-09-15", 0.2], ["2015-09-16", 0.2], ["2015-09-17", 0.2], ["2015-09-17", 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["2015-10-06", 0.15], ["2015-10-07", 0.15], ["2015-10-07", 0.15], ["2015-10-08", 0.15], ["2015-10-08", 0.15], ["2015-10-08", 0.15], ["2015-10-09", 0.15], ["2015-10-10", 0.15], ["2015-10-11", 0.15], ["2015-10-11", 0.15], ["2015-10-12", 0.15], ["2015-10-12", 0.15], ["2015-10-12", 0.15], ["2015-10-12", 0.15], ["2015-10-12", 0.15], ["2015-10-13", 0.15], ["2015-10-13", 0.15], ["2015-10-13", 0.15], ["2015-10-14", 0.15], ["2015-10-14", 0.15], ["2015-10-15", 0.15], ["2015-10-15", 0.15], ["2015-10-16", 0.15], ["2015-10-16", 0.15], ["2015-10-17", 0.15], ["2015-10-17", 0.15], ["2015-10-18", 0.15], ["2015-10-18", 0.15], ["2015-10-19", 0.15], ["2015-10-19", 0.15], ["2015-10-19", 0.15], ["2015-10-20", 0.15], ["2015-10-20", 0.15], ["2015-10-21", 0.15], ["2015-10-21", 0.15], ["2015-10-22", 0.145], ["2015-10-22", 0.145], ["2015-10-22", 0.13], ["2015-10-22", 0.12], ["2015-10-23", 0.12], ["2015-10-23", 0.12], ["2015-10-23", 0.13], ["2015-10-24", 0.13], ["2015-10-25", 0.14], ["2015-10-25", 0.14], ["2015-10-25", 0.15], ["2015-10-25", 0.15], ["2015-10-25", 0.14], ["2015-10-26", 0.14], ["2015-10-26", 0.145], ["2015-10-27", 0.13], ["2015-10-27", 0.13], ["2015-10-28", 0.12], ["2015-10-28", 0.12], ["2015-10-28", 0.12], ["2015-10-28", 0.12], ["2015-10-29", 0.105], ["2015-10-29", 0.105], ["2015-10-29", 0.1], ["2015-10-29", 0.1], ["2015-10-29", 0.1], ["2015-10-30", 0.1], ["2015-10-30", 0.1], ["2015-10-31", 0.1], ["2015-10-31", 0.1], ["2015-11-01", 0.1], ["2015-11-01", 0.1], ["2015-11-01", 0.1], ["2015-11-01", 0.1], ["2015-11-02", 0.1], ["2015-11-02", 0.1], ["2015-11-02", 0.1], ["2015-11-03", 0.1], ["2015-11-03", 0.1], ["2015-11-03", 0.1], ["2015-11-03", 0.1], ["2015-11-03", 0.1], ["2015-11-04", 0.1], ["2015-11-04", 0.1], ["2015-11-05", 0.1], ["2015-11-05", 0.1], ["2015-11-05", 0.1], ["2015-11-05", 0.1], ["2015-11-05", 0.1], ["2015-11-06", 0.1], ["2015-11-06", 0.1], ["2015-11-06", 0.1], ["2015-11-06", 0.1], ["2015-11-06", 0.1], ["2015-11-06", 0.1], ["2015-11-06", 0.1], ["2015-11-06", 0.1], ["2015-11-06", 0.1], ["2015-11-06", 0.1], ["2015-11-06", 0.11], ["2015-11-06", 0.12], ["2015-11-06", 0.12], ["2015-11-06", 0.12], ["2015-11-07", 0.14], ["2015-11-07", 0.15], ["2015-11-07", 0.15], ["2015-11-07", 0.15], ["2015-11-07", 0.15], ["2015-11-07", 0.15], ["2015-11-07", 0.15], ["2015-11-07", 0.155], ["2015-11-08", 0.155], ["2015-11-09", 0.155], ["2015-11-09", 0.155], ["2015-11-09", 0.18], ["2015-11-09", 0.2], ["2015-11-10", 0.2], ["2015-11-10", 0.2], ["2015-11-10", 0.2], ["2015-11-10", 0.2], ["2015-11-11", 0.2], ["2015-11-11", 0.2], ["2015-11-11", 0.2], ["2015-11-12", 0.2], ["2015-11-12", 0.22], ["2015-11-13", 0.22], ["2015-11-13", 0.22], ["2015-11-14", 0.22], ["2015-11-14", 0.21], ["2015-11-15", 0.22], ["2015-11-15", 0.25], ["2015-11-15", 0.25], ["2015-11-16", 0.25], ["2015-11-16", 0.25], ["2015-11-16", 0.25], ["2015-11-16", 0.25], ["2015-11-16", 0.25], ["2015-11-16", 0.25], ["2015-11-17", 0.25], ["2015-11-17", 0.25], ["2015-11-17", 0.25], ["2015-11-18", 0.25], ["2015-11-19", 0.25], ["2015-11-19", 0.25], ["2015-11-19", 0.25], ["2015-11-19", 0.3], ["2015-11-19", 0.3], ["2015-11-20", 0.425], ["2015-11-20", 0.5], ["2015-11-20", 0.5], ["2015-11-20", 0.525], ["2015-11-20", 0.525], ["2015-11-20", 0.525], ["2015-11-21", 0.525], ["2015-11-21", 0.525], ["2015-11-21", 0.525], ["2015-11-22", 0.55], ["2015-11-22", 0.55], ["2015-11-22", 0.55], ["2015-11-23", 0.55], ["2015-11-23", 0.55], ["2015-11-23", 0.55], ["2015-11-24", 0.55], ["2015-11-24", 0.55], ["2015-11-24", 0.55], ["2015-11-24", 0.55], ["2015-11-25", 0.55], ["2015-11-25", 0.55], ["2015-11-26", 0.55], ["2015-11-26", 0.55], ["2015-11-26", 0.55], ["2015-11-26", 0.55], ["2015-11-27", 0.55], ["2015-11-27", 0.55], ["2015-11-28", 0.55], ["2015-11-28", 0.55], ["2015-11-29", 0.55], ["2015-11-30", 0.55]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/4 | True |
2016-10-02 | Will the peace agreement between Colombia and the FARC win approval in the upcoming national plebiscite? | binary | This question was closed on option B ('No') with a closing date of 10/2/2016. The plebiscite did not approve the peace agreement ( <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/03/americas/colombia-farc-peace-deal-collapse-whats-next/" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-37537252" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://thecitypaperbogota.com/news/no-wins-colombians-narrowly-rejects-peace-accord-with-farc/14639" target="_blank">The City Paper</a>, <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/colombian-voters-apparently-reject-peace-deal-with-rebels-1475451463" target="_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>).
In late August, Colombia and the FARC signed a deal to end the FARC's decades-long armed rebellion (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-colombia-rebels-idUSKCN10Z2HJ" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-37180752" target="_blank">BBC</a>). Colombians will now have a chance to vote on the deal in a plebiscite that is scheduled for October 2 (<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/what-comes-next-for-colombia-farc-peace-deal-agreement-plebiscite-2016-8" target="_blank">Business Insider</a>). Winning approval requires that a simple majority vote "yes" on the plebiscite question (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-colombia-peace-idUSKCN11526Y" target="_blank">Reuters</a>) and that the majority represent at least 13% of registered voters (<a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/colombian-peace-plan-heads-for-plebiscite-1472166364" target="_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>, <a href="https://vbouvier.wordpress.com/2016/07/20/constitutional-court-approves-plebiscite-for-colombian-peace-accords/" target="_blank">Colombia Calls</a>). President Juan Manuel Santos supports the agreement while his chief rival, former President Alvaro Uribe, is campaigning for its rejection (<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/colombia-government-and-farc-rebels-ready-to-announce-peace-deal/2016/08/24/32ac13b6-d796-4d70-b2f9-da75d9e43bbb_story.html" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>).
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| 2016-10-04 | gjopen | ["http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/09/26/inenglish/1474883844_556723.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-colombia-peace-idUSKCN11W0BR?il=0", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0489xkc", "http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/26/americas/colombia-farc-peace-deal/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-08-26/waging-peace-in-colombia", "http://jamaica-gleaner.com/article/news/20160929/national-emergency-centre-be-activated-friday-hurricane-matthew-heads-towards", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-colombia-peace-idUSKCN12204M?il=0", "http://en.mercopress.com/2016/09/26/land-distribution-remains-challenge-for-the-post-peace-accord-in-colombia", "http://thediplomat.com/2016/09/ghanis-deal-with-the-devil-hekmatyar-and-transitional-justice/", "http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=55126#.V-mke5A8KrU", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/03/world/colombia-peace-deal-defeat.html?emc=edit_na_20161002&nlid=52725637&ref=headline&_r=0", "https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MsbEU7TFBdk", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-37537252", "http://plebiscito.registraduria.gov.co/99PL/DPLZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ_L1.htm", "http://www.economist.com/news/21707728-scenes-colombian-guerrillas-last-conference-armed-group-farc-agree-hand", "http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2016/09/26/world/americas/ap-lt-colombia-peace-ceremony-the-latest.html", "http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21707921-all-its-imperfections-and-complexities-agreement-between-government-and-farc", "https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DZGCJVnhMRc", "http://www.semana.com/noticias/plebiscito-por-la-paz/104205", "http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/222172/colombians-expected-to-say-%E2%80%98yes%E2%80%99-to-peace", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/colombian-peace-plan-heads-for-plebiscite-1472166364", "http://www.populationlabs.com/colombia_population.asp", "https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/video/watching-extremely-dangerous-matthew-in-caribbean-0", "https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qoz5Za-LBDU", "https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/ff0932f38e9b5546a32093182078fbffb0671736/43_249_2903_1742/master/2903.jpg"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-09-20 | 0.0 | [["2016-09-20", 0.5], ["2016-09-20", 0.68], ["2016-09-20", 0.84], ["2016-09-20", 1.0], ["2016-09-20", 0.925], ["2016-09-20", 0.95], ["2016-09-20", 0.9], ["2016-09-20", 0.95], ["2016-09-20", 0.9], ["2016-09-20", 0.85], ["2016-09-20", 0.825], ["2016-09-20", 0.9], ["2016-09-20", 0.8], ["2016-09-20", 0.775], ["2016-09-20", 0.85], ["2016-09-20", 0.925], ["2016-09-21", 0.9], ["2016-09-21", 0.8], ["2016-09-21", 0.85], ["2016-09-21", 0.85], ["2016-09-21", 0.85], ["2016-09-21", 0.9], ["2016-09-21", 0.95], ["2016-09-21", 0.95], ["2016-09-21", 0.95], ["2016-09-21", 0.95], ["2016-09-21", 0.95], ["2016-09-21", 0.95], ["2016-09-21", 0.95], ["2016-09-21", 0.95], ["2016-09-21", 0.95], ["2016-09-21", 0.95], ["2016-09-21", 0.97], ["2016-09-21", 0.965], ["2016-09-21", 0.965], ["2016-09-22", 0.98], ["2016-09-22", 0.98], ["2016-09-22", 0.98], ["2016-09-22", 0.98], ["2016-09-22", 0.98], ["2016-09-22", 0.965], ["2016-09-22", 0.95], ["2016-09-22", 0.95], ["2016-09-22", 0.95], ["2016-09-22", 0.95], ["2016-09-23", 0.95], ["2016-09-23", 0.965], ["2016-09-23", 0.965], ["2016-09-23", 0.98], ["2016-09-23", 0.98], ["2016-09-23", 0.98], ["2016-09-23", 0.98], ["2016-09-23", 0.97], ["2016-09-23", 0.97], ["2016-09-23", 0.97], ["2016-09-24", 0.96], ["2016-09-24", 0.95], ["2016-09-24", 0.955], ["2016-09-24", 0.955], ["2016-09-24", 0.955], ["2016-09-24", 0.955], ["2016-09-24", 0.95], ["2016-09-24", 0.955], ["2016-09-24", 0.96], ["2016-09-24", 0.96], ["2016-09-25", 0.965], ["2016-09-25", 0.965], ["2016-09-25", 0.965], ["2016-09-25", 0.975], ["2016-09-25", 0.97], ["2016-09-25", 0.96], ["2016-09-25", 0.955], ["2016-09-25", 0.965], ["2016-09-25", 0.955], ["2016-09-25", 0.955], ["2016-09-25", 0.96], ["2016-09-26", 0.96], ["2016-09-26", 0.95], ["2016-09-26", 0.955], ["2016-09-26", 0.955], ["2016-09-26", 0.965], ["2016-09-26", 0.96], ["2016-09-26", 0.96], ["2016-09-26", 0.96], ["2016-09-26", 0.95], ["2016-09-26", 0.95], ["2016-09-26", 0.95], ["2016-09-26", 0.95], ["2016-09-26", 0.95], ["2016-09-26", 0.95], ["2016-09-26", 0.95], ["2016-09-26", 0.95], ["2016-09-26", 0.95], ["2016-09-26", 0.95], ["2016-09-26", 0.93], ["2016-09-26", 0.93], ["2016-09-26", 0.93], ["2016-09-26", 0.95], ["2016-09-26", 0.93], ["2016-09-27", 0.93], ["2016-09-27", 0.95], ["2016-09-27", 0.95], ["2016-09-27", 0.93], ["2016-09-27", 0.95], ["2016-09-27", 0.95], ["2016-09-27", 0.95], ["2016-09-27", 0.95], ["2016-09-27", 0.95], ["2016-09-27", 0.95], ["2016-09-27", 0.965], ["2016-09-27", 0.965], ["2016-09-27", 0.965], ["2016-09-27", 0.965], ["2016-09-27", 0.965], ["2016-09-27", 0.965], ["2016-09-28", 0.965], ["2016-09-28", 0.965], ["2016-09-28", 0.98], ["2016-09-28", 0.98], ["2016-09-28", 0.95], ["2016-09-28", 0.97], ["2016-09-28", 0.97], ["2016-09-28", 0.965], ["2016-09-28", 0.975], ["2016-09-28", 0.98], ["2016-09-28", 0.98], ["2016-09-28", 0.98], ["2016-09-28", 0.98], ["2016-09-28", 0.98], ["2016-09-29", 0.98], ["2016-09-29", 0.985], ["2016-09-29", 0.99], ["2016-09-29", 0.99], ["2016-09-29", 0.99], ["2016-09-29", 0.99], ["2016-09-29", 0.99], ["2016-09-29", 0.99], ["2016-09-29", 0.99], ["2016-09-29", 0.99], ["2016-09-29", 0.99], ["2016-09-29", 0.99], ["2016-09-29", 0.99], ["2016-09-30", 0.99], ["2016-09-30", 0.99], ["2016-09-30", 0.99], ["2016-09-30", 0.99], ["2016-09-30", 0.99], ["2016-09-30", 0.99], ["2016-10-01", 0.99], ["2016-10-01", 0.99], ["2016-10-01", 0.99], ["2016-10-01", 0.99], ["2016-10-01", 0.99], ["2016-10-01", 0.99], ["2016-10-01", 0.99], ["2016-10-01", 0.99], ["2016-10-01", 0.99], ["2016-10-01", 0.99], ["2016-10-01", 0.99], ["2016-10-01", 0.99], ["2016-10-01", 0.99], ["2016-10-02", 0.99], ["2016-10-02", 0.99], ["2016-10-02", 0.99], ["2016-10-02", 0.99], ["2016-10-02", 0.99], ["2016-10-02", 0.99], ["2016-10-02", 0.99], ["2016-10-02", 0.99], ["2016-10-02", 0.99], ["2016-10-02", 0.99], ["2016-10-02", 0.99], ["2016-10-02", 0.99], ["2016-10-02", 0.99]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/287 | True |
2016-12-31 | Will either Turkey or Russia officially suspend or cancel the Akkuyu nuclear power plant project before the end of 2016? | binary | This question was closed on "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
The fallout from Turkey's downing of a Russian aircraft in November 2015 could have significant ramifications for economic cooperation between the two countries, including disruption of major energy initiatives like the Akkuyu nuclear power plant project (<a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/26/this-is-how-russia-could-hurt-turkeys-economy.html" target = "_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/12/03/us-russia-putin-idUSKBN0TM0YF20151203#GmyBS6l2WdsvllZT.97" target = "_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "http://www.albawaba.com/business/turkish-russian-relations-what-will-happen-mega-projects-natural-gas-exports-774520">Al Bawaba</a>, <a href = "http://www.newsweek.com/no-decision-taken-freeze-turkish-stream-says-russian-minister-400161" target = "_blank">Newsweek</a>).
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<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/84-will-turkey-impose-capital-controls-before-1-december-2016" target = "_blank">Will Turkey impose capital controls before 1 December 2016?</a> | 2017-01-06 | gjopen | ["http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-russia-diplomacy-idUSKBN1481RE", "http://rbth.com/news/2016/10/09/rosatom-ceo-and-turkish-energy-minister-discuss-akkuyu-npp-project_637175", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/343659", "http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-12/03/c_135878442.htm", "http://rbth.com/news/2016/12/02/turkish-parliament-ratifies-deal-with-russian-on-building-turkish-stream_652887", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/282853", "http://news.sky.com/story/turkey-presses-safe-zone-idea-for-syria-after-recapture-of-key-town-10617255", "https://rbth.com/news/2016/10/09/rosatom-ceo-and-turkish-energy-minister-discuss-akkuyu-npp-project_637175", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-russia-diplomat-gulen-idUSKBN1482A0?il=0", "http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2014/11/17/russia-turkey-inch-toward-improved-relations", "http://en.special.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52673", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/334598", "http://www.gratanet.com/up_files/russia_turkey_sanctions_amendment_july2016_eng.pdf", "https://sputniknews.com/business/201612061048228908-akkuyu-npp-russia/", "https://www.rt.com/business/324230-gazprom-turkish-stream-cancellation/", "http://www.dailysabah.com/war-on-terror/2016/07/21/putins-adviser-downing-russian-fighter-jet-work-of-gulenists", "http://www.dailysabah.com/diplomacy/2016/11/28/russia-turkey-should-no-longer-use-the-terms-post-crisis-and-pre-crisis-fm-cavusoglu-says", "http://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=598b9c8c-a611-41de-bab2-ab468a664664", "http://tass.com/world/915007", "http://journal-neo.org/2016/08/10/assessment-of-erdogan-putin-meeting-now-were-talking/", "http://www.dailysabah.com/d/business/2016/12/07/ankara-moscow-seek-to-compensate-for-time-lost", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-energy-summit-turkey-russia-idUSKCN12A244", "http://en.trend.az/world/turkey/2670587.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_Americans", "http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-calls-on-russia-to-lift-sanctions-ease-visa-liberalization-to-boost-trade-.aspx?pageID=238&nID=107304&NewsCatID=345"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2015-12-08 | 0.0 | [["2015-12-08", 0.5], ["2015-12-08", 0.55], ["2015-12-09", 0.6], ["2015-12-09", 0.6], ["2015-12-09", 0.65], ["2015-12-09", 0.65], ["2015-12-09", 0.7], ["2015-12-10", 0.7], ["2015-12-10", 0.75], ["2015-12-10", 0.85], ["2015-12-10", 0.795], ["2015-12-10", 0.75], ["2015-12-10", 0.75], ["2015-12-10", 0.75], ["2015-12-10", 0.725], ["2015-12-11", 0.75], ["2015-12-11", 0.75], ["2015-12-11", 0.78], ["2015-12-12", 0.8], ["2015-12-12", 0.8], ["2015-12-13", 0.8], ["2015-12-13", 0.785], ["2015-12-13", 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2019-06-17 | In Manhattan Community Access Corp. v. Halleck, will the Supreme Court rule that the Manhattan Neighborhood Network is a public forum for First Amendment purposes? | binary | A suit over First Amendment rights violations was dismissed by the district court, concluding that First Amendment protections do not apply to Manhattan Neighborhood Network because it is not a public forum and its employees are not state actors (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-otc-halleck-firstamendment/a-supreme-court-case-has-internet-companies-running-scared-idUSKBN1OC2XR" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2018/17-1702" target="_blank">Oyez</a>, <a href="http://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/manhattan-community-access-corp-v-halleck/" target="_blank">SCOTUSBlog</a>). The appeals court reversed in part, ruling that public access TV channels in Manhattan are public forums and the case should proceed (<a href="http://www.scotusblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/17-1702-opinion-below.pdf" target="_blank">SCOTUSBlog</a>). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its current term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as no.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.supremecourt.gov/opinions/18pdf/17-1702_h315.pdf" target="_blank">SCOTUS</a>). </p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2019-06-18 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2019-01-11 | 0.0 | [["2019-01-11", 0.5], ["2019-01-11", 0.01], ["2019-01-11", 0.28], ["2019-01-11", 0.285], ["2019-01-12", 0.01], ["2019-01-12", 0.125], ["2019-01-12", 0.14], ["2019-01-12", 0.29], ["2019-01-13", 0.55], ["2019-01-13", 0.65], ["2019-01-13", 0.65], ["2019-01-13", 0.7], ["2019-01-13", 0.7], ["2019-01-14", 0.7], ["2019-01-14", 0.7], ["2019-01-14", 0.725], ["2019-01-14", 0.7], ["2019-01-14", 0.7], ["2019-01-15", 0.685], ["2019-01-16", 0.685], ["2019-01-16", 0.685], ["2019-01-16", 0.635], ["2019-01-16", 0.635], ["2019-01-17", 0.67], ["2019-01-18", 0.67], ["2019-01-18", 0.67], ["2019-01-19", 0.7], ["2019-01-19", 0.7], ["2019-01-20", 0.7], ["2019-01-24", 0.7], ["2019-01-29", 0.7], ["2019-02-01", 0.7], ["2019-02-01", 0.725], ["2019-02-03", 0.725], ["2019-02-04", 0.725], ["2019-02-04", 0.725], ["2019-02-05", 0.725], ["2019-02-05", 0.675], ["2019-02-07", 0.675], ["2019-02-08", 0.675], ["2019-02-09", 0.675], ["2019-02-09", 0.65], ["2019-02-13", 0.6], ["2019-02-13", 0.6], ["2019-02-14", 0.6], ["2019-02-19", 0.6], ["2019-02-23", 0.625], ["2019-02-24", 0.625], ["2019-02-26", 0.625], ["2019-02-26", 0.625], ["2019-03-01", 0.625], ["2019-03-04", 0.625], ["2019-03-04", 0.625], ["2019-03-08", 0.65], ["2019-03-09", 0.65], ["2019-03-09", 0.6], ["2019-03-11", 0.59], ["2019-03-13", 0.59], ["2019-03-14", 0.595], ["2019-03-15", 0.59], ["2019-03-18", 0.565], ["2019-03-19", 0.59], ["2019-03-19", 0.59], ["2019-03-19", 0.565], ["2019-03-24", 0.56], ["2019-03-26", 0.55], ["2019-03-29", 0.55], ["2019-03-30", 0.525], ["2019-03-31", 0.5], ["2019-04-02", 0.5], ["2019-04-02", 0.5], ["2019-04-02", 0.5], ["2019-04-05", 0.5], ["2019-04-11", 0.5], ["2019-04-11", 0.5], ["2019-04-11", 0.5], ["2019-04-11", 0.5], ["2019-04-11", 0.5], ["2019-04-11", 0.5], ["2019-04-12", 0.5], ["2019-04-12", 0.5], ["2019-04-12", 0.525], ["2019-04-12", 0.5], ["2019-04-12", 0.5], ["2019-04-12", 0.5], ["2019-04-12", 0.5], ["2019-04-13", 0.5], ["2019-04-13", 0.5], ["2019-04-14", 0.5], ["2019-04-14", 0.5], ["2019-04-15", 0.5], ["2019-04-16", 0.535], ["2019-04-19", 0.535], ["2019-04-20", 0.57], ["2019-04-20", 0.57], ["2019-04-20", 0.57], ["2019-04-21", 0.57], ["2019-04-22", 0.57], ["2019-04-23", 0.585], ["2019-04-24", 0.585], ["2019-04-24", 0.565], ["2019-04-26", 0.565], ["2019-04-27", 0.56], ["2019-04-28", 0.56], ["2019-04-30", 0.565], ["2019-05-02", 0.56], ["2019-05-03", 0.56], ["2019-05-03", 0.525], ["2019-05-06", 0.525], ["2019-05-07", 0.56], ["2019-05-09", 0.57], ["2019-05-12", 0.57], ["2019-05-13", 0.57], ["2019-05-15", 0.57], ["2019-05-17", 0.585], ["2019-05-17", 0.585], ["2019-05-17", 0.585], ["2019-05-17", 0.585], ["2019-05-17", 0.585], ["2019-05-20", 0.55], ["2019-05-21", 0.6], ["2019-05-21", 0.6], ["2019-05-23", 0.6], ["2019-05-24", 0.55], ["2019-05-24", 0.55], ["2019-05-27", 0.55], ["2019-05-30", 0.55], ["2019-06-01", 0.575], ["2019-06-02", 0.58], ["2019-06-03", 0.585], ["2019-06-06", 0.6], ["2019-06-07", 0.6], ["2019-06-07", 0.6], ["2019-06-08", 0.6], ["2019-06-08", 0.6], ["2019-06-12", 0.6], ["2019-06-12", 0.6], ["2019-06-13", 0.6], ["2019-06-13", 0.6], ["2019-06-14", 0.61], ["2019-06-14", 0.6], ["2019-06-16", 0.6], ["2019-06-17", 0.6]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1097 | True |
2017-01-01 | Will the 2016 industry-wide average cost of Li-on batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles be less than $300 per kWh? | binary | This question was closed as "yes" with an end date of 31 December 2016 (<a href="https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2017/electric-vehicle-battery-costs-decline/" target="_blank">The Mack Institute</a>).
<hr>
Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines.
A study published in Nature Climate Change in 2015 analyzed the cost of battery packs between 2007 and 2014 based on estimates from over 80 different publicly-available data sources. This study calculated that industry-wide average cost of lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery packs declined by approximately 14% annually between 2007 and 2014, from more than US $1,000 per kWh in 2007 to around US $410 per kWh in 2014 (<a href ="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n4/full/nclimate2564.html" target = "_blank">Nature</a>). If this trend holds through 2016, the industry-wide average cost would be about $300 per kWh.
The <a href = "https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/events-and-programs/pvmi/" target = "_blank">Mack Institute</a> will resolve this question by using the same methodology as the Nature Climate Change article. For more information on cost estimates from that article and the methodology used to estimate those costs see (<a href="https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2016/are-affordable-electric-vehicle-batteries-on-the-horizon/" target="_blank">Mack</a>) or the pre-publication <a href="https://www.sei-international.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-Nature-pre-pub-2015-falling-costs-battery-packs-BEVs.pdf" target="_blank">version</a> of the article. An explanation of the resolution, along with sources, will be posted on (<a href="https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2016/are-affordable-electric-vehicle-batteries-on-the-horizon/" target="_blank">Mack</a>).
<sub>
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<hr> | 2017-03-03 | gjopen | ["http://themarketmogul.com/the-electric-car-might-spell-the-death-of-oil-heres-why/", "http://www.hybridcars.com/gm-ev-battery-cells-down-to-145kwh-and-still-falling/", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/394422", "http://www.topspeed.com/cars/car-news/study-shows-that-electric-cars-could-take-over-wealthy-cities-as-early-as-2030-ar174822.html", "http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Will-Electric-Cars-Be-Cost-Competitive-By-2020.html", "http://www.power-technology.com/features/featureunder-the-skin-of-teslas-gigafactory-5649122/", "http://gas2.org/2016/11/04/video-tesla-fire-shows-bursting-battery-cells/", "https://googleblog.blogspot.com/2009/12/personalized-search-for-everyone.html", "http://www.valuewalk.com/2016/11/tesla-gigafactory-construction/", "http://www.fool.com/investing/2016/10/26/falling-battery-prices-will-open-up-world-of-innov.aspx", "http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.30.1.117", "https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2016/are-affordable-electric-vehicle-batteries-on-the-horizon/", "http://evobsession.com/ev-battery-manufacturer-sales-market-share-march-2015/", "http://www.thedetroitbureau.com/2016/10/second-daimler-plant-to-yield-400-increase-in-battery-production/", "http://auto.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/auto-technology/toyota-finally-tames-lithium-ion-battery-technology/55153819", "http://www.autoblog.com/2015/10/08/gm-li-ion-battery-cost-per-kwh-already-down-to-145/", "http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21710635-what-changes-driving-habits-and-improved-batteries-might-do-oil-demand-coming", "http://www.wikiwand.com/en/Tesla_Motors", "http://www.altenergymag.com/article/2016/10/tesla-apple-and-uber-push-lithium-prices-even-higher/24941/", "http://www.autoevolution.com/news/ev-branching-puts-financial-strain-on-mercedes-benz-ceo-plans-budget-cuts-112097.html", "http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy16osti/66086.pdf", "http://www.teslacentral.com/panasonic-exclusive-battery-supplier-tesla-model-s-x-and-3", "https://www.bbhub.io/bnef/sites/4/2016/10/BNEF_McKinsey_The-Future-of-Mobility_11-10-16.pdf", "https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/77181/area14mp/image-20150407-26476-25dolr.jpg", "http://www.hybridcars.com/october-2016-dashboard/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-04-22 | 1.0 | [["2016-04-22", 0.28], ["2016-04-22", 0.165], ["2016-04-22", 0.58], ["2016-04-22", 0.465], ["2016-04-22", 0.45], ["2016-04-22", 0.55], ["2016-04-22", 0.55], ["2016-04-22", 0.55], ["2016-04-22", 0.55], ["2016-04-22", 0.55], ["2016-04-22", 0.72], ["2016-04-22", 0.72], ["2016-04-22", 0.5], ["2016-04-22", 0.5], ["2016-04-23", 0.55], ["2016-04-23", 0.625], ["2016-04-23", 0.565], ["2016-04-23", 0.575], ["2016-04-23", 0.625], ["2016-04-23", 0.65], ["2016-04-23", 0.65], ["2016-04-24", 0.65], ["2016-04-24", 0.65], ["2016-04-24", 0.63], ["2016-04-24", 0.565], 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["2016-12-29", 0.85], ["2016-12-29", 0.85], ["2016-12-30", 0.86], ["2016-12-31", 0.87], ["2017-01-01", 0.87]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/185 | True |
2016-06-20 | Will Afghanistan's Parliament confirm a Minister of Defense before 1 July 2016? | binary | Afghanistan has not had a confirmed Minister of Defense since Ashraf Ghani was sworn in as President in September 2014 (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/04/us-afghanistan-politics-idUSKCN0PE08420150704#2Df5zjLfJbW8jhZO.97" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="http://www.voanews.com/content/rejection-of-afghan-defense-minister-nominee-signals-deeper-problems/2851723.html" target="_blank">Voice of America</a>).
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["2016-06-10", 0.3], ["2016-06-10", 0.3], ["2016-06-11", 0.3], ["2016-06-11", 0.3], ["2016-06-11", 0.3], ["2016-06-12", 0.33], ["2016-06-12", 0.33], ["2016-06-13", 0.33], ["2016-06-13", 0.32], ["2016-06-13", 0.33], ["2016-06-14", 0.33], ["2016-06-14", 0.33], ["2016-06-14", 0.32], ["2016-06-15", 0.32], ["2016-06-15", 0.32], ["2016-06-15", 0.32], ["2016-06-16", 0.3], ["2016-06-16", 0.25], ["2016-06-16", 0.25], ["2016-06-16", 0.25], ["2016-06-16", 0.25], ["2016-06-16", 0.25], ["2016-06-17", 0.25], ["2016-06-17", 0.25], ["2016-06-17", 0.25], ["2016-06-18", 0.25], ["2016-06-18", 0.25], ["2016-06-19", 0.25], ["2016-06-19", 0.25], ["2016-06-20", 0.25], ["2016-06-20", 0.25], ["2016-06-20", 0.25], ["2016-06-20", 0.25]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/85 | True |
2017-11-14 | Before 15 November 2017, will the WTO establish a dispute settlement panel for any of Qatar's complaints against Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, or Bahrain? | binary | On 31 July 2017, Qatar filed WTO <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news17_e/ds526_7_8rfc_04aug17_e.htm" target="_blank">complaints against the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia</a> (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gulf-qatar-wto-exclusive-idUSKBN1AG1WJ" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). A <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/disp1_e.htm" target="_blank">panel could be established by the Dispute Settlement Body</a> to adjudicate the dispute if countries cannot resolve the matter via consultations (<a href="https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dispu_e/disp_settlement_cbt_e/c6s3p1_e.htm" target="_blank">WTO</a>).
<hr>
This question closed as "b) No," with an end date of 15 November 2017.
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<hr>
| 2017-11-29 | gjopen | ["https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/events_e/events_e.htm", "https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dispu_e/dsu_e.htm#4", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/571629", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dispute_settlement_in_the_World_Trade_Organization", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gulf-qatar-wto/qatar-escalates-uae-trade-dispute-asks-wto-to-adjudicate-idUSKBN1CH2VT", "http://cadmus.eui.eu/bitstream/handle/1814/47045/LAW_2017_11.pdf?sequence=1", "http://www.gulf-times.com/story/567211/Qatar-asks-WTO-to-adjudicate-on-UAE-trade-dispute", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/569000", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VcjzHMhBtf0", "https://www.pmnewsnigeria.com/2017/10/23/uae-blocks-qatar-request-wto-ruling/", "https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/disp1_e.htm", "https://www.bna.com/qatar-seeks-private-n57982087954/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/600607", "https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/07/qatar-airways-ceo-calls-on-trump-to-do-even-more-on-gulf-blockade.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/593089", "http://www.qatarday.com/news/local/qatar-files-second-request-at-wto-against-uae/55678", "https://docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/SS/directdoc.aspx?filename=q:/WT/DS/526-2.pdf", "https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news17_e/ds526_7_8rfc_04aug17_e.htm"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-09-06 | 0.0 | [["2017-09-06", 0.15], ["2017-09-06", 0.25], ["2017-09-06", 0.175], ["2017-09-06", 0.1], ["2017-09-06", 0.085], ["2017-09-06", 0.06], ["2017-09-07", 0.05], ["2017-09-07", 0.05], ["2017-09-07", 0.075], ["2017-09-07", 0.185], ["2017-09-07", 0.185], ["2017-09-07", 0.15], ["2017-09-07", 0.27], ["2017-09-07", 0.08], ["2017-09-07", 0.08], ["2017-09-07", 0.055], ["2017-09-07", 0.065], ["2017-09-07", 0.065], ["2017-09-07", 0.05], ["2017-09-07", 0.04], ["2017-09-07", 0.03], ["2017-09-07", 0.03], ["2017-09-08", 0.03], ["2017-09-08", 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2019-01-01 | Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan? | binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended 31 December 2018 and will be resolved in October 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Sudan from October 2018 to September 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples
" target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJO's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.<p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. For more information on the resolution of this EWP question and its companion questions, see "<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpoct18sep19#" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Early Warning Project Question Resolutions: October 1, 2018-September 30, 2019</a>."</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2020-01-05 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2018-09-28 | 0.0 | [["2018-09-29", 0.02], ["2018-09-29", 0.06], ["2018-09-29", 0.03], ["2018-09-29", 0.04], ["2018-09-29", 0.05], ["2018-09-30", 0.04], ["2018-10-01", 0.04], ["2018-10-01", 0.03], ["2018-10-01", 0.03], ["2018-10-03", 0.03], ["2018-10-04", 0.035], ["2018-10-04", 0.03], ["2018-10-05", 0.03], ["2018-10-06", 0.03], ["2018-10-06", 0.035], ["2018-10-07", 0.03], ["2018-10-07", 0.03], ["2018-10-09", 0.03], ["2018-10-11", 0.03], ["2018-10-12", 0.04], ["2018-10-12", 0.04], ["2018-10-14", 0.04], ["2018-10-14", 0.045], ["2018-10-16", 0.045], ["2018-10-18", 0.045], ["2018-10-20", 0.045], ["2018-10-22", 0.03], ["2018-10-24", 0.045], ["2018-10-25", 0.04], ["2018-10-28", 0.04], ["2018-10-30", 0.04], ["2018-11-04", 0.03], ["2018-11-06", 0.03], ["2018-11-06", 0.06], ["2018-11-08", 0.05], ["2018-11-08", 0.03], ["2018-11-10", 0.03], ["2018-11-13", 0.025], ["2018-11-15", 0.03], ["2018-11-15", 0.03], ["2018-11-15", 0.045], ["2018-11-16", 0.045], ["2018-11-18", 0.07], ["2018-11-19", 0.07], ["2018-11-20", 0.07], ["2018-11-21", 0.07], ["2018-11-22", 0.09], ["2018-11-25", 0.09], ["2018-11-25", 0.085], ["2018-11-28", 0.085], ["2018-12-06", 0.095], ["2018-12-08", 0.085], ["2018-12-08", 0.075], ["2018-12-09", 0.075], ["2018-12-13", 0.09], ["2018-12-13", 0.12], ["2018-12-13", 0.15], ["2018-12-14", 0.15], ["2018-12-16", 0.15], ["2018-12-19", 0.105], ["2018-12-20", 0.105], ["2018-12-24", 0.105], ["2018-12-25", 0.09], ["2018-12-27", 0.09], ["2018-12-28", 0.105], ["2018-12-31", 0.105], ["2019-01-01", 0.105]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1009 | True |
2015-09-17 | Will Russia officially lift any part of its food embargo on the United States, any or all of the European Union member states, Canada, Australia, Norway, Iceland, Albania, Montenegro or Liechtenstein before 6 August 2016? | binary | Russia imposed an embargo on food imports from the US, the EU, Canada, Australia, and Norway in August of 2014 as retaliation for western sanctions. In early August, Russia extended the embargo for another year (www.rt.com/business/269644-russia-food-embargo-extension ) and added Iceland, Albania, Montengro, and Liechtenstein to the list of embargoed countries (news.yahoo.com/russia-slaps-food-embargo-more-european-countries-150602238.html). The question refers to the the E.U. member states embargoed by Russia in 2014. If Russia lifts the embargo on any of them, the question will resolve as a yes regardless of their E.U. status when the embargo is lifted.
Last updated 8 September 2015. | 2015-09-28 | gjopen | ["http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ed158b66-f304-11e4-b98f-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=intl#axzz3ZJwlAvNo", "http://rbth.com/business/2015/08/18/which_countries_have_benefited_from_russias_food_embargo_48587.html", "http://www.levada.ru/eng/", "http://belarusdigest.com/story/belarus-and-russian-food-embargo-success-story-23073", "http://government.ru/docs/19758/", "http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150916/1027059689/fabius-sanctions-minsk.html#ixzz3ltSFxNyE", "https://www.coursera.org/course/hiddenmessages", "http://www.neweuropeinvestor.com/news/four-new-countrues-added-to-russian-food-ban-list-10508/", "http://carnegie.ru/2015/09/09/russian-regime-in-2015-all-tactics-no-strategy/ih3t", "http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2015/06/22-russia-sanctions/", "http://bit.ly/1LIoE14", "http://tuoitrenews.vn/business/21324/80-of-worlds-computer-chips-will-be-made-by-intel-vietnam-by-2015-ceo", "http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2015/08/17/Russia-adds-three-California-wines-to-import-ban-list/1271439836987/", "https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/why-russias-import-ban-has-mostly-failed", "http://www.debevoise.com/~/media/files/insights/publications/2015/07/debevoise_sanctions_alert_issue40.pdf", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/russias-food-burning-campaign-is-an-irrational-show-of-control/2015/08/27/928f91c4-41ff-11e5-8e7d-9c033e6745d8_story.html", "https://www.rt.com/news/315985-montenegro-resolution-nato-membership/", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/09/16/does-putin-russia-plan-for-syria-military-escalation/", "http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/30/world/europe/with-rubles-decline-russian-tourists-gain-appreciation-for-the-motherland.html?partner=MYWAY&ei=5065", "http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2015/09/02/EU-agrees-to-extend-sanctions-against-Russia/6271441209156/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/13/us-russia-crisis-food-idUSKCN0QI18R20150813", "http://www.internationaltradecomplianceupdate.com/blog.aspx?topic=158", "http://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/jobs/locations/russia/sites/moscow.html", "http://www.popularmechanics.com/space/rockets/a10184/what-happens-if-russia-refuses-to-fly-us-astronauts-16555991/", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34174382"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2015-09-01 | 1.0 | [["2015-09-01", 0.25], ["2015-09-01", 0.6], ["2015-09-02", 0.35], ["2015-09-02", 0.3], ["2015-09-02", 0.35], ["2015-09-02", 0.25], ["2015-09-02", 0.15], ["2015-09-02", 0.2], ["2015-09-02", 0.225], ["2015-09-02", 0.25], ["2015-09-02", 0.25], ["2015-09-02", 0.235], ["2015-09-02", 0.235], ["2015-09-03", 0.22], ["2015-09-03", 0.21], ["2015-09-03", 0.2], ["2015-09-03", 0.19], ["2015-09-03", 0.21], ["2015-09-04", 0.2], ["2015-09-04", 0.21], ["2015-09-04", 0.22], ["2015-09-04", 0.21], ["2015-09-04", 0.2], ["2015-09-04", 0.2], ["2015-09-04", 0.2], ["2015-09-04", 0.21], ["2015-09-04", 0.2], ["2015-09-04", 0.2], ["2015-09-04", 0.2], ["2015-09-05", 0.2], ["2015-09-05", 0.2], ["2015-09-05", 0.19], ["2015-09-05", 0.2], ["2015-09-05", 0.2], ["2015-09-06", 0.2], ["2015-09-07", 0.2], ["2015-09-07", 0.21], ["2015-09-07", 0.22], ["2015-09-08", 0.22], ["2015-09-08", 0.25], ["2015-09-08", 0.25], ["2015-09-09", 0.25], ["2015-09-09", 0.275], ["2015-09-09", 0.3], ["2015-09-09", 0.3], ["2015-09-09", 0.3], ["2015-09-10", 0.275], ["2015-09-10", 0.28], ["2015-09-10", 0.29], ["2015-09-10", 0.28], ["2015-09-10", 0.275], ["2015-09-10", 0.26], ["2015-09-10", 0.25], ["2015-09-10", 0.26], ["2015-09-10", 0.25], ["2015-09-11", 0.26], ["2015-09-11", 0.27], ["2015-09-11", 0.275], ["2015-09-11", 0.27], ["2015-09-11", 0.27], ["2015-09-11", 0.26], ["2015-09-11", 0.25], ["2015-09-11", 0.25], ["2015-09-11", 0.25], ["2015-09-11", 0.25], ["2015-09-11", 0.25], ["2015-09-12", 0.25], ["2015-09-12", 0.25], ["2015-09-12", 0.25], ["2015-09-12", 0.25], ["2015-09-12", 0.25], ["2015-09-12", 0.25], ["2015-09-12", 0.25], ["2015-09-12", 0.25], ["2015-09-13", 0.25], ["2015-09-13", 0.25], ["2015-09-13", 0.25], ["2015-09-13", 0.25], ["2015-09-13", 0.26], ["2015-09-13", 0.25], ["2015-09-13", 0.25], ["2015-09-13", 0.25], ["2015-09-14", 0.25], ["2015-09-14", 0.25], ["2015-09-14", 0.25], ["2015-09-14", 0.25], ["2015-09-14", 0.25], ["2015-09-14", 0.25], ["2015-09-14", 0.25], ["2015-09-14", 0.25], ["2015-09-15", 0.25], ["2015-09-15", 0.25], ["2015-09-15", 0.25], ["2015-09-15", 0.25], ["2015-09-15", 0.25], ["2015-09-15", 0.25], ["2015-09-16", 0.25], ["2015-09-16", 0.25], ["2015-09-16", 0.25], ["2015-09-16", 0.25], ["2015-09-16", 0.25], ["2015-09-16", 0.25], ["2015-09-16", 0.25], ["2015-09-16", 0.25], ["2015-09-16", 0.25], ["2015-09-17", 0.25]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/10 | True |
2016-12-31 | Before 1 January 2017, will it be officially announced that Greece is leaving the eurozone? | binary | This question was closed as "no with an end date of 31 December 2016.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
Analysts suggest that a "Grexit" from the euro area continues to be a possibility (<a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/27/eurozone-greece-regling-idUSB4N10100X20150827" target = "_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "http://www.theweek.co.uk/greek-crisis/64094/greece-crisis-has-bailout-ended-threat-of-grexit" target = "_blank">The Week</a> , <a href = "http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/26/panagiotis-lafazanis-from-political-unity-party-calls-for-grexit.html" target = "_blank">CNBC</a>).
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<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/106-will-more-than-1-million-refugees-and-migrants-arrive-in-europe-by-sea-in-2016" target = "_blank">Will more than 1 million refugees and migrants arrive in Europe by sea in 2016?</a> | 2017-01-04 | gjopen | ["http://www.ekathimerini.com/214662/article/ekathimerini/news/cancer-related-deaths-on-the-rise-in-greece", "http://www.amna.gr/english/article/16407/Dep.-Economy-minister:-Most-important-structural-change-needed-in-Greece-is-in-mentality", "http://greece.greekreporter.com/2016/12/02/greeces-disabled-people-take-to-the-streets-in-protest-against-cutbacks/", "https://hbr.org/2016/09/greece-needs-to-be-honest-about-the-numbers", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/12/greece-pm-tsipras-anti-austerity-rhetoric-161213204557541.html", "http://greece.greekreporter.com/2016/11/09/what-could-the-donald-trump-victory-mean-for-greece/", "http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2016/12/14/world/europe/ap-eu-greece-bailout.html?_r=0", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/04/greece-must-reform-or-leave-eurozone-says-german-minister", "http://en.mehrnews.com/news/122100/Iran-Greece-stress-political-will-for-expanding-ties", "https://www.neweurope.eu/article/eu-commission-excludes-grexit-awaits-athens-prior-actions-votes/", "http://www.cityam.com/249549/rip-grexit-citi-says-no-longer-believes-greece-leave-eu", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-greece-dijsselbloem-idUSKBN1321SO", "http://greece.greekreporter.com/2016/10/17/eurostat-one-in-three-greeks-live-in-conditions-of-poverty/", "https://www.neweurope.eu/press-release/press-release-contrasting-views-on-the-state-of-greeces-adjustment-programme/", "http://www.ekathimerini.com/214670/article/ekathimerini/news/concern-grows-in-greece-over-turkeys-intentions", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/once-adulated-greek-pm-tsipras-among-least-popular-chiefs/2016/11/30/8012b4b4-b737-11e6-939c-91749443c5e5_story.html?utm_term=.f934b2ec24c6", "http://www.dw.com/en/tourism-boom-in-greece/a-19556345", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-greece-debt-idUSKBN13T0LZ?il=0", "http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/eu-appeals-greece-meet-bailout-conditions-monday-42555368", "http://www.ekathimerini.com/212038/opinion/ekathimerini/comment/whos-governing-greece", "http://www.marketwatch.com/story/eurozone-fund-approves-28-billion-bailout-loans-to-greece-2016-10-25", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-greece-gdp-idUSKCN1140WT", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/greece-has-no-debt-problem-for-a-decade-says-esm-head-1477565544", "http://www.newsweek.com/greece-bailout-tsipras-eurogroup-summit-creditors-austerity-527622", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/greeces-2017-budget-plan-sticks-with-robust-growth-forecast-1475508075"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2015-09-14 | 0.0 | [["2015-09-15", 0.15], ["2015-09-15", 0.05], ["2015-09-15", 0.045], ["2015-09-15", 0.05], ["2015-09-15", 0.05], ["2015-09-15", 0.05], 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2016-12-31 | Will there be any publicly disclosed cyber attacks on nuclear facilities before the end of 2016? | binary | This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. In making this decision, the question team carefully reviewed the open source evidence of three different incidents. The first two incidents were reviewed when the initial news broke and again at the end of the year. The third was considered when the 2016 report from the Nuclear Threat Initiative was released.
The first incident was the discovery of malware in a German nuclear power plant in May 2016. At the time, there was insufficient evidence to close question because it was unclear whether the malware was introduced into the system as part of an attack or if it was introduced inadvertently. A clarification relaying this decision was issued at that time. Although NTI counts this incident in their 2016 report (<a href="http://www.nti.org/analysis/reports/outpacing-cyber-threats-priorities-cybersecurity-nuclear-facilities/" target="_blank">NTI</a>), they present no new evidence about the incident and also go on to classify the intent of the act as "unknown" rather than as "intentional" or "accidental." With no additional evidence on how the malware was introduced, our decision in May remains unchanged.
The second incident involved the release of data from a hydrogen isotope research center in Japan. In June, it was revealed that a PC at the facility was infected with a virus in November of 2015 and subject to remote control until late December 2015. Data from the research center was released in March and June of 2016, during the question's open period (<a href="http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/10/11/national/crime-legal/toyama-tritium-researchers-data-targeted-cyberattacks/#.WG_aDmUyfA5" target="_blank">Japan Times</a>). It is unclear whether all the data was stolen in 2015 and released in 2016, or if some of the released data was acquired by the perpetrators during 2016. However, sources agree that the November 2015 spearfishing attack was what enabled the data to be stolen (<a href="http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/10/11/national/crime-legal/toyama-tritium-researchers-data-targeted-cyberattacks/#.WG_aDmUyfA5" target="_blank">Japan Times</a>, <a href="http://www.esecurityplanet.com/hackers/hackers-steal-data-from-japanese-nuclear-facility.html" target="_blank">eSecurity Planet</a>), and because the spearfishing attack occurred prior to the question’s open period this incident does not qualify.
The third incident was the at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission/Department of Energy and is listed in the NTI report with a February 2016 date, but the perpetrator of the incident was indicted for these actions in the spring of 2015, so the attack occurred prior to the question's open period (<a href="https://www.fbi.gov/contact-us/field-offices/washingtondc/news/press-releases/former-u.s.-nuclear-regulatory-commission-employee-charged-with-attempted-spear-phishing-cyber-attack-on-department-of-energy-computers" target="_blank">FBI</a>).
Given the clarification issued in May and the lack of subsequent evidence, there is insufficient evidence to close this question as "yes" based on the incident at the German power plant. The attack on the Japanese power plant began in 2015, prior to the question's open period, and so does not qualify, as did the Department of Energy incident.
Threats emanating from the cyber realm have been increasing in frequency and severity. In just the last month, we saw Russia sanctioned for using cyber to disrupt elections, Kiev's power grid turned off after a cyber attack, and a huge merger put in jeopardy after Yahoo revealed that millions of its accounts had been hacked. The unique nature of the cyber domain creates challenges for adjudicating forecasting questions using open source material and requires that these questions be less precise than others you'll find <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">on the site</a> but given the growing importance of this threat, it is worth working through this ambiguity so that the Good Judgment forecasting community can engage on these issues and the wisdom of the crowd can be leveraged. We will be launching an open question next week to solicit your ideas on what questions we should be asking about this important topic and also how we should be asking those questions. We hope you will share your thoughts and continue to engage on the important issues of the day here at Good Judgment Open.
<hr>
Recent reports by Chatham House and the Nuclear Threat Initiative suggest that many nuclear facilities are vulnerable to cyber attacks (<a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/15/world/nuclear-threat-initiative-cyberattack-study.html" target = "_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-34423419" target = "blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b5f0df54-6aa1-11e5-aca9-d87542bf8673.html#axzz3tChmcpN1" target = "_blank">Financial Times</a>). | 2017-01-16 | gjopen | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corpocracy", "http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/russian-hackers-electricity-grid-vermont-233085", "http://www.nti.org/analysis/tools/table/133/", "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/nuclear-power-plants-vulnerable-hacking-attack-cyber-nightmare-united-nations-a7479546.html", "http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2016/11/david_gelernter.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-cyber-congress-idUSKBN13P2ER", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/28/opinion/why-corruption-matters.html", "http://www.nti.org/media/documents/NTI_CyberThreats__FINAL.pdf", "http://www.nti.org/analysis/atomic-pulse/outpacing-cyber-hackers-preventing-catastrophic-cyberattacks-nuclear-facilities/", "https://youtu.be/DvLCTq5DE5Y", "http://dailycaller.com/2016/11/25/russian-propaganda-media-black-list-includes-the-drudge-report/", "http://www.pbs.org/newshour/making-sense/column-cyber-systems-nourish-poison-us-need-focus-latter/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corporatocracy", "https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/3c/19/5b/3c195becca70c11e171d2e94fe331fc3.jpg", "http://warontherocks.com/2016/11/trolling-for-trump-how-russia-is-trying-to-destroy-our-democracy/", "http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1033.html", "https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4632358/donald-trump-un-headquarters-renovation", "https://youtu.be/0STS7HBi5Cw", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/russian-propaganda-effort-helped-spread-fake-news-during-election-experts-say/2016/11/24/793903b6-8a40-4ca9-b712-716af66098fe_story.html", "https://youtu.be/_nLfRsReGII", "http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2016/04/richard_jones_o.html", "https://youtu.be/zqnwWVGCLeU", "http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/magazines/panache/why-mark-zuckerberg-wants-everyone-to-read-henry-kissingers-book-about-world-order/articleshow/50218364.cms", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/403969", "https://youtu.be/jSpBwt4hFN8"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-01-19 | 0.0 | [["2016-01-19", 0.935], ["2016-01-19", 0.925], ["2016-01-19", 0.9], ["2016-01-19", 0.72], ["2016-01-19", 0.65], ["2016-01-20", 0.65], ["2016-01-20", 0.65], ["2016-01-20", 0.65], ["2016-01-20", 0.55], ["2016-01-21", 0.55], ["2016-01-21", 0.54], ["2016-01-21", 0.5], ["2016-01-21", 0.5], ["2016-01-21", 0.5], ["2016-01-21", 0.5], ["2016-01-22", 0.5], ["2016-01-22", 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["2016-12-29", 0.02], ["2016-12-30", 0.02], ["2016-12-31", 0.015]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/113 | True |
2018-04-26 | Will Kim Jong-un and Moon Jae-in meet before 1 November 2018? | binary | South Korean President Moon Jae-in has said that he would be willing to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (<a href = "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/10/south-korea-new-president-moon-jae-in-meet-north-kim-jong-un"target="_blank">The Guardian</a>, <a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/10/world/asia/moon-jae-in-president-south-korea.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/14/asia/south-korea-moon-jae-in-profile/index.html"target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href = "http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/south-korea-leader-moon-jae-in-turns-into-north-korea-hawk-as-kim-jong-un-shuns-talks"target="_blank">Straits Times</a>).
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<hr>
This question closed as "yes" with an end date of 26 April 2018 (<a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-43914208"target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/26/world/asia/korea-kim-moon-summit.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>).
<hr>
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| 2018-04-27 | gjopen | ["https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/08/asia/north-korea-moon-jae-in-visit-possible/index.html", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-olympics-2018-northkorea-southkorea/south-koreas-moon-hosts-talks-with-north-korean-leaders-sister-idUSKBN1FU05F", "https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/948194400114487296", "http://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2018/feb/26/south-korean-president-moon-jae-in-says-us-should-lower-threshold-for-talks-with-north-korea-1779196.html", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-olympics-2018-northkorea-southkorea/kim-jong-un-invites-south-korean-president-for-summit-south-korea-idUSKBN1FU05F", "https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/09/world/asia/kim-yo-jong-history-facts.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-43014269", "https://apnews.com/62606f764536423b8e1abf9f65f20794/South-Korea's-Moon-may-be-on-brink-of-legacy-defining-moment", "https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/02/17/asia-pacific/politics-diplomacy-asia-pacific/early-inter-korean-summit-moon-says-urging-talks-washington-pyongyang/#.WpGu4ZM-feQ", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/10/kim-yo-jong-meets-south-korean-president-in-seoul-as-thaw-continues", "http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2018/02/04/54/0401000000AEN20180204005853315F.html", "https://www.sfgate.com/sports/article/North-Korea-raises-eyebrows-with-choice-for-12704669.php", "http://app.yonhapnews.co.kr/YNA/Basic/ForeignGallery/view.aspx?lang=EN&contents_id=PYH20180209278700341", "https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/10/north-koreas-kim-invites-south-korean-president-for-summit-south-korea.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/09/world/asia/kim-yo-jong-history-facts.html", "https://arstechnica.com/science/2013/06/bayes-theorem-its-triumphs-and-discontents/", "https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20180211_11/", "https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/02/17/asia-pacific/politics-diplomacy-asia-pacific/moons-chief-staff-takes-center-stage-inter-korean-detente/", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/675305", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-olympics-2018-northkorea/north-korean-closing-olympics-delegation-includes-man-blamed-for-deadly-sinking-idUSKCN1G60KN", "https://www.newstimes.com/technology/businessinsider/article/US-signals-major-change-on-North-Korea-after-12606506.php", "https://www.38north.org/2018/01/no17factory180130/", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/20/mike-pence-north-korea-olympic-games-meeting-cancelled", "http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2018/02/10/0401000000AEN20180210005100315.html", "https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/23/politics/donald-trump-north-korea-sanctions/index.html"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-10-24 | 1.0 | [["2017-10-24", 0.0], ["2017-10-24", 0.0], 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["2018-04-24", 0.9], ["2018-04-24", 0.9], ["2018-04-25", 0.9], ["2018-04-26", 0.9], ["2018-04-26", 0.9], ["2018-04-26", 0.9], ["2018-04-26", 0.9], ["2018-04-26", 0.9]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/669 | True |
2017-08-01 | Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan cease to be President of Turkey before 1 August 2017? | binary | In the wake of a failed coup attempt in July 2016, Erdogan has aimed to consolidate his power (<a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-13746679" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/28/world/europe/turkey-media-newspapers-shut.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-20/turkey-s-erdogan-takes-on-kurds-jihadists-and-more" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>). In the event that Erdogan reportedly disappears or flees the capital, Good Judgment will observe a three-week waiting period, at the end of which the question will close retroactively to the date of his disappearance or exodus. If Erdogan returns in the interim, the question will remain open.
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<hr>
As of 1 August, Recep Tayyip Erdogan remained President of Turkey. This question closed as "b) no" with an end date of 1 August.
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<hr> | 2017-08-03 | gjopen | ["https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-02-19/even-some-erdogan-diehards-flinch-at-giving-him-more-powers", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-politics-erdogan-syria-idUSKBN17R2GU", "http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2017/02/12/Turkish-president-Islamic-States-ouster-from-key-Syrian-stronghold-immiment/4351486931964/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-referendum-europe-idUSKBN16T13E", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-security-aselsan-idUSKBN16G0UQ", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-germany-merkel-idUSKBN16V05P", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-referendum-idUSKBN17H0CU", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/ex-cia-director-mike-flynn-and-turkish-officials-discussed-removal-of-erdogan-foe-from-u-s-1490380426", "https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-06-07/turkey-chooses-sides-in-gulf-conflict-as-erdogan-defends-qatar", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-turkey-idUSKBN16H0SP", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/297026", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-turkey-military-idUSKBN1A42RR", "http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-turkey-referendum-idUKKBN1733PN", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-25/turkey-will-keep-pumping-money-into-infrastructure-premier-says", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-turkey-idUSKBN16D240", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-referendum-europe-idUSKBN16H2C6", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-turkey-idUSKBN19I2YM", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-politics-erdogan-europe-idUSKBN17R2GG", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-referendum-eu-idUSKBN16W0R2", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-referendum-germany-gabriel-idUSKBN16P0EA", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/turkeys-erdogan-approves-referendum-on-presidential-power-1486742933", "https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-16/erdogan-declares-victory-as-opposition-contest-turkish-result", 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["2017-07-30", 0.0], ["2017-07-30", 0.0], ["2017-07-31", 0.0], ["2017-07-31", 0.0], ["2017-08-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/250 | True |
2018-07-01 | Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?
| binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2018 and will be resolved in April 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in the Philippines from April 2018 to March 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples" target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.<p></p><hr><p></p><p>This question closed as Yes. (<u><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpapril2018mar2019" target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a></u>)</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p> | 2019-05-20 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2018-04-02 | 1.0 | [["2018-04-02", 0.0], ["2018-04-02", 0.35], ["2018-04-03", 0.2], ["2018-04-03", 0.03], ["2018-04-03", 0.13], ["2018-04-03", 0.425], ["2018-04-03", 0.33], ["2018-04-03", 0.33], ["2018-04-03", 0.24], ["2018-04-03", 0.145], ["2018-04-04", 0.07], ["2018-04-04", 0.05], ["2018-04-04", 0.03], ["2018-04-04", 0.0], ["2018-04-04", 0.015], ["2018-04-04", 0.03], ["2018-04-04", 0.04], ["2018-04-04", 0.03], ["2018-04-05", 0.03], ["2018-04-05", 0.03], ["2018-04-05", 0.03], ["2018-04-05", 0.04], ["2018-04-06", 0.04], ["2018-04-06", 0.03], ["2018-04-06", 0.01], ["2018-04-07", 0.01], ["2018-04-07", 0.005], ["2018-04-07", 0.01], ["2018-04-08", 0.01], ["2018-04-09", 0.01], ["2018-04-10", 0.01], ["2018-04-12", 0.02], ["2018-04-12", 0.025], ["2018-04-13", 0.025], ["2018-04-15", 0.01], ["2018-04-16", 0.01], ["2018-04-16", 0.01], ["2018-04-19", 0.01], ["2018-04-20", 0.01], ["2018-04-24", 0.01], ["2018-04-25", 0.01], ["2018-04-25", 0.01], ["2018-04-26", 0.01], ["2018-04-29", 0.01], ["2018-05-01", 0.01], ["2018-05-02", 0.01], ["2018-05-02", 0.01], ["2018-05-02", 0.01], ["2018-05-02", 0.015], ["2018-05-02", 0.025], ["2018-05-02", 0.035], ["2018-05-02", 0.095], ["2018-05-03", 0.095], ["2018-05-03", 0.095], ["2018-05-04", 0.095], ["2018-05-05", 0.095], ["2018-05-06", 0.38], ["2018-05-08", 0.38], ["2018-05-09", 0.81], ["2018-05-09", 0.9], ["2018-05-10", 0.9], ["2018-05-11", 0.9], ["2018-05-11", 0.9], ["2018-05-12", 0.9], ["2018-05-14", 0.9], ["2018-05-14", 0.9], ["2018-05-15", 0.91], ["2018-05-17", 0.92], ["2018-05-17", 0.92], ["2018-05-22", 0.92], ["2018-05-22", 0.92], ["2018-05-22", 0.92], ["2018-05-23", 0.91], ["2018-05-24", 0.9], ["2018-05-24", 0.9], ["2018-05-26", 0.9], ["2018-05-26", 0.9], ["2018-05-26", 0.9], ["2018-05-28", 0.9], ["2018-05-29", 0.92], ["2018-05-30", 0.91], ["2018-05-30", 0.93], ["2018-05-30", 0.93], ["2018-05-31", 0.93], ["2018-06-01", 0.93], ["2018-06-02", 0.91], ["2018-06-03", 0.91], ["2018-06-04", 0.905], ["2018-06-08", 0.905], ["2018-06-09", 0.9], ["2018-06-11", 0.9], ["2018-06-12", 0.91], ["2018-06-13", 0.91], ["2018-06-14", 0.92], ["2018-06-15", 0.92], ["2018-06-16", 0.92], ["2018-06-16", 0.91], ["2018-06-17", 0.91], ["2018-06-18", 0.91], ["2018-06-19", 0.91], ["2018-06-20", 0.91], ["2018-06-22", 0.91], ["2018-06-23", 0.925], ["2018-06-23", 0.92], ["2018-06-23", 0.92], ["2018-06-23", 0.92], ["2018-06-24", 0.92], ["2018-06-24", 0.92], ["2018-06-26", 0.92], ["2018-06-27", 0.86], ["2018-06-27", 0.575], ["2018-06-27", 0.575], ["2018-06-28", 0.35], ["2018-06-28", 0.35], ["2018-06-29", 0.35], ["2018-06-29", 0.35], ["2018-06-30", 0.35], ["2018-06-30", 0.35], ["2018-07-01", 0.35]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/908 | True |
2018-07-01 | Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?
| binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2018 and will be resolved in April 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Mali from April 2018 to March 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples" target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.<p></p><hr><p></p><p>This question closed as No. (<u><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpapril2018mar2019" target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a></u>)</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p> | 2019-05-20 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2018-04-02 | 0.0 | [["2018-04-02", 0.0], ["2018-04-03", 0.0], ["2018-04-03", 0.04], ["2018-04-03", 0.05], ["2018-04-03", 0.17], ["2018-04-03", 0.135], ["2018-04-04", 0.02], ["2018-04-04", 0.03], ["2018-04-04", 0.0], ["2018-04-04", 0.005], ["2018-04-04", 0.015], ["2018-04-04", 0.005], ["2018-04-05", 0.01], ["2018-04-05", 0.02], ["2018-04-06", 0.015], ["2018-04-06", 0.01], ["2018-04-07", 0.025], ["2018-04-07", 0.0], ["2018-04-07", 0.01], ["2018-04-08", 0.01], ["2018-04-09", 0.0], ["2018-04-10", 0.005], ["2018-04-11", 0.005], ["2018-04-12", 0.005], ["2018-04-12", 0.01], ["2018-04-13", 0.005], ["2018-04-14", 0.01], ["2018-04-15", 0.01], ["2018-04-15", 0.04], ["2018-04-16", 0.03], ["2018-04-16", 0.03], ["2018-04-16", 0.03], ["2018-04-19", 0.015], ["2018-04-19", 0.015], ["2018-04-20", 0.015], ["2018-04-25", 0.015], ["2018-04-29", 0.02], ["2018-05-01", 0.03], ["2018-05-01", 0.03], ["2018-05-02", 0.03], ["2018-05-03", 0.035], ["2018-05-03", 0.03], ["2018-05-03", 0.03], ["2018-05-05", 0.05], ["2018-05-09", 0.05], ["2018-05-10", 0.05], ["2018-05-11", 0.035], ["2018-05-12", 0.035], ["2018-05-13", 0.05], ["2018-05-14", 0.05], ["2018-05-14", 0.035], ["2018-05-16", 0.035], ["2018-05-17", 0.035], ["2018-05-22", 0.035], ["2018-05-24", 0.035], ["2018-05-24", 0.02], ["2018-05-24", 0.02], ["2018-05-26", 0.02], ["2018-05-26", 0.02], ["2018-05-28", 0.02], ["2018-05-30", 0.0], ["2018-05-31", 0.0], ["2018-06-01", 0.0], ["2018-06-02", 0.01], ["2018-06-04", 0.01], ["2018-06-08", 0.01], ["2018-06-08", 0.01], ["2018-06-11", 0.01], ["2018-06-12", 0.0], ["2018-06-13", 0.0], ["2018-06-14", 0.0], ["2018-06-14", 0.0], ["2018-06-15", 0.0], ["2018-06-16", 0.0], ["2018-06-16", 0.0], ["2018-06-17", 0.0], ["2018-06-18", 0.0], ["2018-06-19", 0.0], ["2018-06-20", 0.0], ["2018-06-22", 0.0], ["2018-06-23", 0.0], ["2018-06-23", 0.0], ["2018-06-23", 0.0], ["2018-06-23", 0.0], ["2018-06-24", 0.0], ["2018-06-26", 0.0], ["2018-06-27", 0.0], ["2018-06-27", 0.015], ["2018-06-27", 0.015], ["2018-06-27", 0.0], ["2018-06-28", 0.0], ["2018-06-29", 0.0], ["2018-06-29", 0.0], ["2018-06-29", 0.0], ["2018-06-30", 0.01], ["2018-07-01", 0.01]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/915 | True |
2017-05-09 | Before 1 October 2017, will Ban Ki-moon announce that he is running for president of South Korea? | binary | Ban Ki-moon, the UN’s outgoing secretary-general, is rumored to be considering a run for the presidency in South Korea's December 2017 election (<a href="http://thediplomat.com/2016/05/ban-ki-moon-leaves-presidential-bid-on-the-table/" target="_blank">The Diplomat</a>). Saenuri, the party of President Park Geun-hye, seems eager to groom him as their next leader (<a href="http://www.theworldin.com/article/12617/bans-man" target="_blank">The World in 2017</a>, <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-26/park-scandal-sparks-interest-in-south-korea-s-next-president" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/349" target="_blank">whether Chun-ying will win the March 2017 election for Chief Executive of Hong Kong</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 9 May 2017. The planned December 2017 election has held early after President Park's impeachment. That election ended on 9 May 2017, and Ban Ki-moon did not participate as a candidate.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | 2017-05-11 | gjopen | ["http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_national/780862.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/01/world/asia/ban-ki-moon-president-south-korea.html?pagewanted=all", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/former-u-n-secretary-general-ban-ki-moon-drops-out-of-south-korean-presidential-race-1485931698", "http://westsidetoday.com/2017/02/22/ban-ki-moon-honored-at-century-city-dinner/", "https://www.nknews.org/2017/02/u-s-and-s-korea-agree-to-deploy-thaad-within-2017-mnd-says/", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-39202936", "http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20170330000705", "https://spectator.sme.sk/c/20460182/president-met-with-ban-ki-moon-in-kenya.html", "https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=88LSYM2RGG0", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-politics-idUSKBN16H066", "http://time.com/4656226/ban-ki-moon-south-korea-presidency/", "http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/02/01/asia-pacific/politics-diplomacy-asia-pacific/ex-u-n-chief-ban-ki-moon-abandons-bid-south-korean-presidency/", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/02/ban-ki-moon-south-korea-presidency-170201143039174.html", "http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/former-united-nations-chief-ban-ki-moon-says-not-running-for-president-of-south-korea", "http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2017/02/356_223600.html", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/03/park-geun-hye-impeachment-170310020959193.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/25/world/asia/ban-ki-moon-south-korea-president.html", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDYpRhoZqBY", "http://thediplomat.com/2017/02/ban-ki-moon-wont-run-for-south-korean-president-after-all/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/former-un-chief-ban-ki-moon-will-not-run-for-president-of-south-korea/2017/02/01/b05c816d-9ce5-4c3a-84be-0e5b78890a17_story.html?utm_term=.619d66008ca4", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/02/22/whats-next-in-south-koreas-never-ending-political-turmoil/?utm_term=.4e955cb94d92", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/01/world/asia/ban-ki-moon-president-south-korea.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/01/world/asia/ban-ki-moon-president-south-korea.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news", "http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2017/4/7/ban-ki-moon-hks/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-politics-idUSKBN15G3IV?il=0"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-11-22 | 0.0 | [["2016-11-22", 0.775], ["2016-11-22", 0.41], ["2016-11-22", 0.49], ["2016-11-22", 0.4], ["2016-11-22", 0.575], ["2016-11-22", 0.575], ["2016-11-22", 0.6], ["2016-11-23", 0.625], ["2016-11-23", 0.55], ["2016-11-23", 0.475], ["2016-11-23", 0.8], ["2016-11-23", 0.75], ["2016-11-23", 0.75], ["2016-11-23", 0.8], ["2016-11-23", 0.775], ["2016-11-23", 0.8], 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2017-12-30 | Before 1 January 2018, will the UN Security Council hold an emergency meeting in response to new suspected use of chemical weapons in Syria? | binary | The Syrian regime has been accused of using chemical weapons against their own people (<a href = "https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Timeline-of-Syrian-Chemical-Weapons-Activity"target="_blank">Arms Control Association</a>). The April 2017 sarin gas attack on a hospital in Idlib province prompted an an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council (<a href = "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/04/chemical-attack-syria-170404195457304.html"target="_blank">Aljazeera</a>, <a href = "http://abcnews.go.com/International/united-nations-hold-emergency-meeting-suspected-chemical-attack/story?id=46589159"target="_blank">ABC</a>).
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<hr>
The UN Security Council did not hold an emergency meeting in response to new suspected use of chemical weapons in Syria. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
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2018-01-01 | Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution concerning Myanmar by 31 December 2017? | binary | This question will resolve as "yes" if the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) adopts a resolution during the period of interest in which the country/region of interest appears in the short description in the Security Council Resolution table (<a href = "http://www.un.org/en/sc/documents/resolutions/2017.shtml"target="_blank">UN</a>) and/or is mentioned within the adopted resolution itself.
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| 2018-01-02 | gjopen | ["https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-journalists-un/u-n-denies-arrested-reuters-reporters-in-myanmar-had-given-it-information-idUSKBN1EF1K2", "http://time.com/5012779/security-council-myanmar-rohingya/", "https://www.un.org/press/en/2017/sc13117.doc.htm", "http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/s_pv_8060.pdf"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-11-29 | 0.0 | [["2017-11-29", 0.15], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.025], ["2017-11-29", 0.03], ["2017-11-29", 0.01], ["2017-11-29", 0.01], ["2017-11-30", 0.02], ["2017-11-30", 0.035], ["2017-11-30", 0.035], ["2017-11-30", 0.01], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-02", 0.005], ["2017-12-02", 0.01], 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2016-03-29 | Will the US Justice Department file criminal charges against Volkswagen or any of its employees before 30 March 2016? | binary | If the Justice Department does pursue a criminal case, it would be the first-ever against an auto maker for skirting emissions standards (<a href = "http://www.wsj.com/articles/volkswagen-may-not-face-environmental-criminal-charges-1443567204" target = "_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>).
10/22/2015: The question stem was modified from "pursue a criminal case" to "file criminal charges." | 2016-04-01 | gjopen | ["http://www.ibtimes.com/volkswagen-diesel-scandal-will-us-justice-department-file-criminal-charges-against-2110996", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/27/gitrep-27mar16pm", "http://dirtdiggersdigest.org/archives/5055", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-volkswagen-usa-idUSKBN0UI1QP20160104", "http://www.marketwatch.com/story/volkswagen-may-avoid-environmental-criminal-charges-2015-09-30", "http://techcrunch.com/2016/03/29/ftc-files-false-advertising-lawsuit-against-vw/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/11/gitrep-10mar16pm/", "http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2015/09/28/vw-almost-certain-to-face-significant-legal-backlash-over-vehicle-emissions-scandal/", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/volkswagen-may-not-face-environmental-criminal-charges-1443567204", "http://www.beyond.ca/vw-being-sued-by-former-employee/55719.html", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-pursues-new-tack-in-vw-emissions-probe-1457464973", "http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f27d7fba-e524-11e5-bc31-138df2ae9ee6.html#axzz42jw6kSw6", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/05/business/vw-sued-justice-department-emissions-scandal.html?_r=0", "http://www.wired.com/2016/01/the-dojs-lawsuit-is-just-the-start-of-vws-legal-woes/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/12/gitrep-11mar16pm/", "http://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/ceo-volkswagen-u-s-steps-down-amid-emissions-scandal-n535691", "http://www.legalreader.com/vw-u-s-ceo-michael-horn-resigns-amid-emissions-scandal/", "http://www.thestreet.com/story/13489954/1/departure-of-vw-s-u-s-chief-is-a-serious-blow.html", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/30/gitrep-29mar16pm/", "https://www.justice.gov/dag/file/769036/download", "http://www.chicoer.com/general-news/20160324/vw-emissions-fix-ordered/1", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/21/gitrep-20mar16pm/", 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["2016-03-29", 0.05]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/63 | True |
2016-11-08 | Will North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory (R) be re-elected this November? | binary | This question closed with the correct answer "No" with an end date of 8 November 2016. Governor Pat McCrory lost his bid for election to Roy Cooper. (<a href="http://www.newsweek.com/north-carolina-governor-pat-mccrory-concedes-528561" target="_blank">Newsweek</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/12/05/north-carolina-gov-pat-mccrory-r-concedes-closely-contested-governors-race/?utm_term=.1e43ee614edf" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>)
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<hr>
Roy Cooper is challenging Governor McCrory in this year's election (<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/04/15/republicans-are-sitting-pretty-in-the-top-5-governors-races-in-2016/" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>, <a href="http://www.rollcall.com/news/gonzales/north-carolina-governor-vulnerable-lgbt-bathroom-trump" target="_blank">Roll Call </a>).
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<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/214" target="_blank">Will Indiana Governor Mike Pence (R) be re-elected this November?</a> | 2016-12-06 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-06-03 | 0.0 | [["2016-06-03", 0.63], ["2016-06-03", 0.35], ["2016-06-03", 0.48], ["2016-06-03", 0.54], ["2016-06-03", 0.58], ["2016-06-03", 0.56], ["2016-06-04", 0.53], ["2016-06-04", 0.5], ["2016-06-04", 0.475], ["2016-06-04", 0.49], ["2016-06-05", 0.5], ["2016-06-05", 0.48], ["2016-06-05", 0.525], ["2016-06-05", 0.525], ["2016-06-05", 0.48], ["2016-06-05", 0.49], ["2016-06-05", 0.5], ["2016-06-05", 0.5], ["2016-06-05", 0.46], ["2016-06-06", 0.45], ["2016-06-06", 0.43], ["2016-06-06", 0.45], ["2016-06-06", 0.47], ["2016-06-06", 0.46], ["2016-06-06", 0.435], ["2016-06-06", 0.41], ["2016-06-06", 0.405], ["2016-06-06", 0.43], ["2016-06-07", 0.45], ["2016-06-07", 0.46], ["2016-06-07", 0.45], ["2016-06-07", 0.45], ["2016-06-08", 0.45], ["2016-06-08", 0.44], ["2016-06-08", 0.42], 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2016-12-31 | Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Afghanistan before 1 January 2017? | binary | For more information on what constitutes an episode of mass killing, see the <a href="http://www.earlywarningproject.com/definitions" target="_blank">Early Warning Project's Definitions page</a>. According to those criteria, Afghanistan is already experiencing an episode of mass killing perpetrated by the Taliban (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/2016/06/06/trends-over-time-in-state-led-mass-killing-through-2015" target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question pertains to the risk of a new episode of mass killing. The Early Warning Project’s <a href="http://www.earlywarningproject.com/risk_assessments" target="_blank">statistical risk assessments</a> identified Afghanistan as the 8th country at the greatest risk of an onset of a new episode of state-led mass killing. Those forecasts do not include the risk of mass killing by non-state groups, which would also produce a “yes” answer to this question. This question will be resolved by the Early Warning Project, in consultation with subject matter experts, using publicly available secondary sources. If the project determines that a new episode of mass killing has occurred, relevant evidence will be summarized in a post on <a href="http://www.earlywarningproject.com/posts" target="_blank">EWP's blog</a>.
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<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/228" target="_blank">Will the government of Afghanistan and the Afghan Taliban participate in official talks before 1 March 2017?</a>
This question was closed as a "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. The EWP did not find evidence of a new mass killing episode in Afghanistan before the end of 2016 (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/2017/03/29/state-of-the-world-mass-killing-in-2016"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | 2017-03-30 | gjopen | ["https://news.vice.com/article/war-related-violence-in-afghanistan-killed-and-injured-more-civilians-than-ever-last-year", "http://thediplomat.com/2016/08/in-afghanistan-kunduz-under-siege-once-again/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/315996", "https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/search/Results.aspx?charttype=line&chart=casualties&casualties_type=b&casualties_max=&dtp2=all&country=4", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civilian_casualties_in_the_war_in_Afghanistan_(2001%E2%80%9314", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-blast-idUSKCN123187", "https://www.unmultimedia.org/radio/english/2016/07/afghanistan-violence-claims-record-death-toll/", "https://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/a-view-from-the-ct-foxhole-an-interview-with-john-brennan-director-cia", "https://unama.unmissions.org/sites/default/files/protection_of_civilians_in_armed_conflict_midyear_report_2016_final.pdf", "http://www.tolonews.com/en/afghanistan/26737-17-villages-under-taliban-control-in-bahark-badakhshan?utm_term=Ultrascan+Humint&utm_source=TOLO+News&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Ultrascan+AGI+Terrorism+AfPak", "http://www.catchnews.com/national-news/25-insurgents-8-security-personnel-killed-in-separate-attacks-in-afghanistan-1479564726.html", "https://www.rt.com/op-edge/357778-terrorism-us-syria-afghanistan/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2016/10/14/an-eroding-stalemate-in-afghanistan-as-taliban-widens-its-offensive", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-taliban-peacetalks-idUSKCN12I0O2?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&rpc=932", "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/countries/afghanistan", "http://indy100.independent.co.uk/article/how-many-afghan-civilians-have-died-in-13-years-of-war--lkcwu0y6Le", "http://www.khaama.com/terrorist-with-links-to-pakistani-military-arrested-by-afghan-forces-01757", "https://news.brown.edu/articles/2016/08/costs-war", "http://dailycaller.com/2016/12/03/afghanistan-more-dangerous-today-than-15-years-ago/", "http://unama.unmissions.org/afghanistan-record-level-civilian-casualties-sustained-first-half-2016-un-report", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/17/rise-in-afghan-civilian-casualties-caused-by-pro-government-forces-taliban", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-n-says-afghan-civilian-casualties-near-record-high-1469427316", "https://www.stripes.com/news/afghan-forces-break-from-tradition-and-launch-winter-offensive-1.440504", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/299866", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/25/world/asia/american-university-attack-kabul-afghanistan.html?src=twr&smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-08-09 | 0.0 | [["2016-08-09", 1.0], ["2016-08-09", 0.925], ["2016-08-09", 0.86], ["2016-08-09", 0.8], ["2016-08-10", 0.825], ["2016-08-10", 0.72], ["2016-08-10", 0.635], ["2016-08-10", 0.45], ["2016-08-10", 0.34], ["2016-08-10", 0.15], 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["2016-12-23", 0.01], ["2016-12-24", 0.01], ["2016-12-25", 0.01], ["2016-12-26", 0.01], ["2016-12-26", 0.01], ["2016-12-27", 0.01], ["2016-12-28", 0.01], ["2016-12-29", 0.01], ["2016-12-30", 0.01], ["2016-12-30", 0.01], ["2016-12-30", 0.01], ["2016-12-31", 0.01], ["2016-12-31", 0.01]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/257 | True |
2017-04-07 | Will a new Supreme Court Justice be confirmed before 30 April 2017? | binary | The United States Supreme Court has had one vacant seat since the February 2016 death of Antonin Scalia. Appointing a new justice will be one of the first big tasks of the Trump administration (<a href = "http://www.theworldin.com/edition/2017/article/12602/trumpquake"target = "_blank">The Economist</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/377"target = "_blank"> the U.S. will provide notice of intent to withdraw from NAFTA</a> or on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/363"target = "_blank">the Dakota Access Pipeline will begin transporting oil before January 2018?</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question was closed as "yes" with an end date of 7 April 2017 (<a href = "http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-gorsuch-confirmed-20170407-story.html"target="_blank">LA Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN1791GR"target="_blank">Reuters</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | 2017-04-10 | gjopen | ["https://www.wsj.com/articles/senate-expected-to-confirm-neil-gorsuch-as-supreme-court-justice-1491557404", "http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-08/gorsuch-approved-us-senate-supreme-court-justice/8427504", "http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/senate-confirms-neil-gorsuch_us_58e7a139e4b05413bfe244ca?mas&", "http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2017/04/02/mcconnell_says_neil_gorsuch_will_be_confirmed_to_supreme_court_this_week.html", "http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/senate/326625-grassley-gorsuch-will-fall-short-of-60-votes", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/07/politics/gorsuch-confirmation-live/", "https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-democrats-found-the-votes-on-gorsuch-now-can-the-gop/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/07/us/politics/neil-gorsuch-supreme-court.html?_r=0", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/478098", "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/04/10/watch-live-neil-gorsuch-supreme-court-swearing-in/100275986/", "https://decisiondeskhq.com/vote-tracker/estimating-cloture-count-for-supreme-court-nominee-neil-gorsuch/", "https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/03/democrats-go-to-war-over-neil-gorsuch/521268/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-gorsuch-idUSKBN1740NH", "https://www.yahoo.com/style/one-woman-made-neil-gorsuchs-confirmation-anything-but-inevitable-165544513.html", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lWA2pjMjpBs", "http://edition.cnn.com/2017/04/07/politics/neil-gorsuch-senate-vote/", "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/02/13/us/how-long-does-it-take-to-confirm-a-supreme-court-nominee.html?_r=0", "http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/04/02/mcconnell-vows-gorsuch-will-be-confirmed-this-week-schumer-predicts-wont-get-60-votes.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/388-will-a-new-supreme-court-justice-be-confirmed-before-30-april-2017/www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2017/04/02/mcconnell_says_neil_gorsuch_will_be_confirmed_to_supreme_court_this_week.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/06/us/politics/neil-gorsuch-supreme-court-senate.html?_r=0", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/02/29/one-third-of-all-u-s-presidents-appointed-a-supreme-court-justice-in-an-election-year/?utm_term=.1dd6c2de45df", "https://www.theguardian.com/law/2016/nov/01/republican-senators-oppose-clinton-supreme-court-nominee", "http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/04/06/what-is-nuclear-option-how-mcconnell-plans-to-get-gorsuch-confirmed.html", "http://www.npr.org/2017/04/03/522225063/the-senate-could-go-nuclear-this-week-what-does-that-mean", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/senate-set-to-confirm-neil-gorsuch-to-supreme-court/2017/04/07/da3cd738-1b89-11e7-9887-1a5314b56a08_story.html?utm_term=.125c15524e56"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-01-17 | 1.0 | [["2017-01-17", 0.25], ["2017-01-17", 0.76], ["2017-01-17", 0.82], ["2017-01-17", 0.8], ["2017-01-17", 0.7], ["2017-01-17", 0.62], ["2017-01-18", 0.62], 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["2017-04-06", 0.85], ["2017-04-06", 0.85], ["2017-04-06", 0.85], ["2017-04-06", 0.85], ["2017-04-06", 0.85], ["2017-04-06", 0.85], ["2017-04-06", 0.86], ["2017-04-06", 0.86], ["2017-04-06", 0.86], ["2017-04-06", 0.87], ["2017-04-06", 0.87], ["2017-04-06", 0.87], ["2017-04-06", 0.875], ["2017-04-06", 0.88], ["2017-04-07", 0.88], ["2017-04-07", 0.89], ["2017-04-07", 0.89], ["2017-04-07", 0.89], ["2017-04-07", 0.9], ["2017-04-07", 0.9], ["2017-04-07", 0.9]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/388 | True |
2018-07-01 | Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?
| binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2018 and will be resolved in April 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in the Myanmar from April 2018 to March 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples" target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.<p></p><hr><p></p><p>This question closed as No. (<u><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpapril2018mar2019" target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a></u>)</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p> | 2019-05-20 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2018-04-02 | 0.0 | [["2018-04-02", 0.65], ["2018-04-03", 0.55], ["2018-04-03", 0.28], ["2018-04-03", 0.28], ["2018-04-03", 0.23], ["2018-04-03", 0.35], ["2018-04-03", 0.15], ["2018-04-03", 0.25], ["2018-04-03", 0.43], ["2018-04-04", 0.49], ["2018-04-04", 0.49], ["2018-04-04", 0.545], ["2018-04-04", 0.43], ["2018-04-04", 0.35], ["2018-04-04", 0.15], ["2018-04-04", 0.25], ["2018-04-05", 0.515], ["2018-04-06", 0.225], ["2018-04-06", 0.125], ["2018-04-06", 0.1], ["2018-04-07", 0.1], ["2018-04-07", 0.125], ["2018-04-07", 0.075], ["2018-04-08", 0.15], ["2018-04-08", 0.05], ["2018-04-09", 0.05], ["2018-04-10", 0.04], ["2018-04-11", 0.04], ["2018-04-12", 0.05], ["2018-04-13", 0.05], ["2018-04-15", 0.05], ["2018-04-15", 0.05], ["2018-04-16", 0.05], ["2018-04-16", 0.05], ["2018-04-19", 0.05], ["2018-04-20", 0.05], ["2018-04-21", 0.075], ["2018-04-25", 0.075], ["2018-04-25", 0.075], ["2018-04-29", 0.075], ["2018-04-29", 0.075], ["2018-05-01", 0.075], ["2018-05-02", 0.075], ["2018-05-03", 0.085], ["2018-05-03", 0.1], ["2018-05-03", 0.1], ["2018-05-03", 0.16], ["2018-05-05", 0.18], ["2018-05-06", 0.18], ["2018-05-07", 0.195], ["2018-05-09", 0.235], ["2018-05-10", 0.235], ["2018-05-11", 0.195], ["2018-05-12", 0.195], ["2018-05-14", 0.195], ["2018-05-14", 0.195], ["2018-05-14", 0.18], ["2018-05-16", 0.18], ["2018-05-17", 0.2], ["2018-05-17", 0.2], ["2018-05-17", 0.2], ["2018-05-21", 0.21], ["2018-05-21", 0.205], ["2018-05-22", 0.205], ["2018-05-22", 0.205], ["2018-05-23", 0.205], ["2018-05-24", 0.205], ["2018-05-24", 0.205], ["2018-05-26", 0.205], ["2018-05-26", 0.205], ["2018-05-27", 0.21], ["2018-05-28", 0.21], ["2018-05-30", 0.2], ["2018-05-31", 0.2], ["2018-06-01", 0.2], ["2018-06-02", 0.205], ["2018-06-04", 0.205], ["2018-06-08", 0.205], ["2018-06-09", 0.2], ["2018-06-11", 0.2], ["2018-06-12", 0.165], ["2018-06-13", 0.165], ["2018-06-14", 0.165], ["2018-06-14", 0.14], ["2018-06-15", 0.14], ["2018-06-16", 0.12], ["2018-06-16", 0.115], ["2018-06-16", 0.14], ["2018-06-17", 0.14], ["2018-06-18", 0.14], ["2018-06-20", 0.14], ["2018-06-22", 0.14], ["2018-06-23", 0.13], ["2018-06-23", 0.13], ["2018-06-23", 0.13], ["2018-06-24", 0.13], ["2018-06-25", 0.13], ["2018-06-26", 0.13], ["2018-06-27", 0.14], ["2018-06-27", 0.14], ["2018-06-27", 0.115], ["2018-06-28", 0.1], ["2018-06-29", 0.1], ["2018-06-29", 0.1], ["2018-06-30", 0.13], ["2018-07-01", 0.13]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/920 | True |
2019-01-01 | Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey? | binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and will be resolved in October 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Turkey from October 2018 to September 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples
" target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJO's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.<p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. For more information on the resolution of this EWP question and its companion questions, see "<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpoct18sep19#" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Early Warning Project Question Resolutions: October 1, 2018-September 30, 2019</a>."</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2020-01-05 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2018-09-28 | 0.0 | [["2018-09-29", 0.0], ["2018-09-29", 0.0], ["2018-09-29", 0.0], ["2018-09-29", 0.0], ["2018-09-29", 0.0], ["2018-09-29", 0.005], ["2018-09-30", 0.0], ["2018-09-30", 0.0], ["2018-09-30", 0.0], ["2018-09-30", 0.0], ["2018-10-01", 0.0], ["2018-10-01", 0.005], ["2018-10-01", 0.005], ["2018-10-02", 0.01], ["2018-10-03", 0.01], ["2018-10-03", 0.01], ["2018-10-03", 0.01], ["2018-10-04", 0.01], ["2018-10-04", 0.01], ["2018-10-05", 0.01], ["2018-10-05", 0.01], ["2018-10-05", 0.01], ["2018-10-06", 0.005], ["2018-10-06", 0.005], ["2018-10-06", 0.005], ["2018-10-07", 0.005], ["2018-10-07", 0.005], ["2018-10-07", 0.005], ["2018-10-07", 0.015], ["2018-10-08", 0.04], ["2018-10-09", 0.04], ["2018-10-11", 0.04], ["2018-10-12", 0.015], ["2018-10-12", 0.04], ["2018-10-12", 0.04], ["2018-10-12", 0.08], ["2018-10-13", 0.06], ["2018-10-14", 0.06], ["2018-10-14", 0.055], ["2018-10-14", 0.08], ["2018-10-15", 0.055], ["2018-10-16", 0.05], ["2018-10-16", 0.05], ["2018-10-17", 0.05], ["2018-10-18", 0.04], ["2018-10-18", 0.04], ["2018-10-20", 0.04], ["2018-10-21", 0.035], ["2018-10-22", 0.03], ["2018-10-22", 0.03], ["2018-10-23", 0.03], ["2018-10-23", 0.03], ["2018-10-24", 0.03], ["2018-10-25", 0.03], ["2018-10-28", 0.03], ["2018-10-28", 0.03], ["2018-10-29", 0.03], ["2018-10-30", 0.03], ["2018-10-30", 0.03], ["2018-10-31", 0.03], ["2018-11-01", 0.03], ["2018-11-02", 0.03], ["2018-11-02", 0.03], ["2018-11-06", 0.03], ["2018-11-06", 0.03], ["2018-11-08", 0.025], ["2018-11-08", 0.025], ["2018-11-09", 0.02], ["2018-11-10", 0.02], ["2018-11-11", 0.02], ["2018-11-13", 0.02], ["2018-11-13", 0.015], ["2018-11-14", 0.015], ["2018-11-15", 0.015], ["2018-11-15", 0.015], ["2018-11-15", 0.015], ["2018-11-16", 0.015], ["2018-11-17", 0.01], ["2018-11-18", 0.01], ["2018-11-20", 0.01], ["2018-11-20", 0.01], ["2018-11-23", 0.01], ["2018-11-28", 0.01], ["2018-11-30", 0.01], ["2018-11-30", 0.01], ["2018-12-06", 0.015], ["2018-12-07", 0.01], ["2018-12-07", 0.01], ["2018-12-07", 0.01], ["2018-12-08", 0.01], ["2018-12-09", 0.01], ["2018-12-09", 0.01], ["2018-12-11", 0.01], ["2018-12-12", 0.01], ["2018-12-13", 0.01], ["2018-12-13", 0.01], ["2018-12-13", 0.01], ["2018-12-13", 0.01], ["2018-12-14", 0.01], ["2018-12-15", 0.01], ["2018-12-16", 0.01], ["2018-12-19", 0.01], ["2018-12-20", 0.01], ["2018-12-20", 0.01], ["2018-12-23", 0.01], ["2018-12-24", 0.01], ["2018-12-28", 0.01], ["2018-12-31", 0.01], ["2018-12-31", 0.01], ["2019-01-01", 0.01]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1017 | True |
2017-12-31 | Will a framework for an end to the Syrian conflict be agreed upon by 31 December 2017? | binary | Leaders of Russia, Turkey, and Iran are sponsoring a conference aimed at achieving a peaceful settlement of the Syrian civil war (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/22/world/europe/russia-turkey-iran-syria-war-peace-talks.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "http://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2017/11/24/Sochi-Summit-Is-the-Syrian-crisis-nearing-resolution-.html"target="_blank">Al Arabiya</a>, <a href = "https://thewire.in/199437/end-syria-war-nears-end-sochi-meeting-unites-iran-russia-turkey/"target="-blank">The Wire</a>). The question will resolve as "yes" if a credible media source (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters) reports that Syria has agreed to a framework outlining the future structure of the state that includes BOTH the adoption of a new constitution AND holding elections under United Nations supervision.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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| 2018-01-02 | gjopen | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_Civil_War#/media/File:Syrian_Civil_War_map.svg", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/629627", "http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2017/12/24/Moscow-to-Syrian-Opposition-We-do-not-support-Bashar-al-Assad-s-departure-.html", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/11/expect-syria-talks-171127093905806.html", "http://www.novinite.com/articles/186524/Deutsche+Welle%3A+Syria+Astana+Talks+End+with+Call+For+New+Peace+Round+in+Sochi", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rojava%E2%80%93Syria_relations", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-talks/syrian-government-negotiator-quits-geneva-talks-says-may-not-return-idUSKBN1DV4U8", "http://www.nydailynews.com/newswires/news/world/latest-syria-opposition-transition-assad-article-1.3678285", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/14/golden-opportunity-lost-as-syrian-peace-talks-collapse"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-11-28 | 0.0 | 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2018-01-01 | Before 1 January 2018, will South Korea file a World Trade Organization dispute against the United States related to solar panels? | binary | South Korea has threatened to file a WTO complaint if the US imposes additional tariffs or import restrictions on solar panels (<a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-trade-solar/south-korea-may-consider-filing-wto-complaint-over-u-s-solar-tariffs-idUSKBN1D2115"target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "https://www.forbes.com/sites/energysource/2017/11/07/dark-skies-for-american-solar-power-itc-recommends-china-tariffs-in-suniva-trade-case/"target="_blank">Forbes</a>). For more information on the dispute settlement process see: <a href = "https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dispu_e/dispu_e.htm"target="_blank">WTO</a>.
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<hr>
South Korea did not file a World Trade Organization dispute against the United States related to solar panels. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
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| 2018-01-04 | gjopen | ["https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-trade-solar/south-korea-may-consider-filing-wto-complaint-over-u-s-solar-tariffs-idUSKBN1D2115", "https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/us-takes-india-back-to-world-trade-organization-in-solar-power-dispute-1790191?pfrom=home-lateststories"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-11-28 | 0.0 | [["2017-11-29", 0.01], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.025], ["2017-11-29", 0.03], ["2017-11-29", 0.02], ["2017-11-29", 0.03], ["2017-11-30", 0.03], ["2017-11-30", 0.03], ["2017-11-30", 0.015], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.005], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-02", 0.0], ["2017-12-02", 0.0], 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2017-05-31 | Will either Mir Hossein Mousavi or Mehdi Karroubi stand trial or be released from house arrest before 1 June 2017? | binary | Mousavi and Karroubi ran as opposition candidates in Iran's 2009 presidential election. Both contested the official results, and the two have been under house arrest since 2011, when they called for a demonstration in support of the uprisings that were occurring at the time in Egypt and Tunisia (<a href="http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/07/iran-judiciary-2009-overthrow-system.html" target="_blank">Al-Monitor 1</a>, <a href="http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/03/iran-green-movement-moderates-relevance-rouhani-hard-liners.html" target="_blank">Al-Monitor 2</a>). Karroubi recently released an open letter requesting authorities allow him to stand trial (<a href="https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20160502-former-iranian-lawmakers-demand-removal-of-house-arrest-orders-against-opposition-leaders/" target="_blank">Middle East Monitor</a>, <a href="http://www.payvand.com/news/16/apr/1118.html" target="_blank">Payvand</a>).
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<hr>
This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 31 May 2017.
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2017-10-01 | Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?
| binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2017 and will be resolved in July 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Nigeria from July 2017 through June 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as 'No', with resolutions further detailed in this <a href = "https://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2018/08/01/early-warning-project-question-resolutions-july-1-2017-june-30-2018/"target="_blank">GJ Open blog post written by EWP</a>.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| 2019-12-09 | gjopen | ["https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-24/why-nigeria-is-facing-secessionist-fervor-again-quicktake-q-a"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-06-30 | 0.0 | [["2017-06-30", 0.02], ["2017-06-30", 0.15], ["2017-07-01", 0.575], ["2017-07-01", 0.575], ["2017-07-01", 0.125], ["2017-07-01", 0.1], ["2017-07-01", 0.1], ["2017-07-01", 0.1], ["2017-07-02", 0.15], ["2017-07-02", 0.175], ["2017-07-02", 0.175], ["2017-07-03", 0.175], ["2017-07-03", 0.125], ["2017-07-03", 0.125], ["2017-07-04", 0.125], ["2017-07-04", 0.06], ["2017-07-04", 0.1], ["2017-07-04", 0.1], ["2017-07-05", 0.1], ["2017-07-05", 0.06], ["2017-07-05", 0.125], ["2017-07-05", 0.125], ["2017-07-05", 0.15], ["2017-07-05", 0.15], ["2017-07-06", 0.15], ["2017-07-06", 0.15], ["2017-07-07", 0.15], ["2017-07-07", 0.15], ["2017-07-08", 0.15], ["2017-07-09", 0.15], ["2017-07-09", 0.115], ["2017-07-09", 0.115], ["2017-07-09", 0.08], ["2017-07-10", 0.08], ["2017-07-11", 0.08], ["2017-07-11", 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2017-12-27 | Before 27 December 2017, will Poland, Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania accuse Russia of intervening militarily in its territory without permission? | binary | If the relevant governments are overthrown during an invasion, an announcement by a third party government accusing Russia of invasion will count. Examples of past accusations of Russian military intervention include Georgia's claim that Russia invaded its territory in August of 2008 (<a href = "http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/world-news/georgia-russia-has-invaded-and-we-are-under-attack-28470695.html"target="_blank">Belfast Telegraph</a>), Ukraine's claim the Russia invaded Crimea in February 2014 (<a href = "https://sputniknews.com/russia/20140228187963690-Ukraine-Accuses-Russian-Soldiers-in-Crimea-of-Invasion-Update1/"target="_blank">Sputnik News</a>), Ukraine's condemnation of illegal Russian fighters in Eastern Ukraine in June 2014 (<a href = "http://mfa.gov.ua/en/press-center/comments/1767-zajava-mzs-ukrajini-pro-chergovi-napadi-bojovikiv-na-skhodi-derzhavi"target="_blank">Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine</a>), and Ukraine's statement in August 2014 that Russia military forces had crossed the border and were actively engaged in fighting (<a href = "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/28/ukraine-accuses-russia-invading-south-east-help-rebels"target="_blank">The Guardian</a>).
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Poland, Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania have not accused Russia of intervening militarily in its territory without permission. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 27 December 2017.
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| 2018-01-04 | gjopen | ["https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/06/nato-russia-belarus-zapad", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty#Article_5", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/latvias-cellphones-stopped-working-russias-war-games-may-be-to-blame/2017/10/05/449162d4-a9d3-11e7-9a98-07140d2eed02_story.html", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGmSKvhrs94", "http://www.dw.com/en/putin-promises-countermeasures-in-response-to-nato-expansion/a-36465534", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-putin-security/russias-putin-says-ex-soviet-countries-threatened-by-militants-ria-idUSKBN1ED0QE?il=0", "https://tribune.com.pk/story/1529386/russia-puts-crimea-new-bank-note/", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/07/russia-parades-detained-estonian-police-officer", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/596325", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/592713", "http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/10/12/russias-neighbors-respond-to-putins-hybrid-warlatvia-estonia-lithuania-finland/", "http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-10/13/c_136675598.htm", "https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russia-fsu/2017-10-04/true-purpose-russias-zapad-military-exercises", "http://nationalinterest.org/feature/how-nato-could-accidentally-trigger-war-russia-23156"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-10-09 | 0.0 | [["2017-10-11", 0.15], ["2017-10-11", 0.105], ["2017-10-11", 0.0], ["2017-10-11", 0.0], ["2017-10-11", 0.0], ["2017-10-11", 0.0], ["2017-10-11", 0.0], ["2017-10-11", 0.0], ["2017-10-11", 0.015], ["2017-10-12", 0.015], ["2017-10-12", 0.03], ["2017-10-12", 0.025], ["2017-10-12", 0.03], ["2017-10-12", 0.035], ["2017-10-12", 0.035], ["2017-10-12", 0.04], ["2017-10-12", 0.025], ["2017-10-12", 0.02], ["2017-10-12", 0.02], ["2017-10-12", 0.03], ["2017-10-12", 0.02], ["2017-10-12", 0.02], ["2017-10-12", 0.015], ["2017-10-12", 0.02], ["2017-10-12", 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2019-01-01 | Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria? | binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and will be resolved in October 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Nigeria from October 2018 to September 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples
" target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJO's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.<p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. For more information on the resolution of this EWP question and its companion questions, see "<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpoct18sep19#" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Early Warning Project Question Resolutions: October 1, 2018-September 30, 2019</a>."</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2020-01-05 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2018-09-28 | 0.0 | [["2018-09-29", 0.1], ["2018-09-29", 0.05], ["2018-09-29", 0.1], ["2018-09-29", 0.1], ["2018-09-30", 0.1], ["2018-09-30", 0.075], ["2018-10-01", 0.075], ["2018-10-01", 0.05], ["2018-10-01", 0.06], ["2018-10-03", 0.06], ["2018-10-04", 0.05], ["2018-10-06", 0.06], ["2018-10-06", 0.04], ["2018-10-07", 0.015], ["2018-10-09", 0.04], ["2018-10-12", 0.04], ["2018-10-14", 0.015], ["2018-10-16", 0.015], ["2018-10-18", 0.025], ["2018-10-20", 0.025], ["2018-10-22", 0.03], ["2018-10-23", 0.03], ["2018-10-24", 0.045], ["2018-10-28", 0.03], ["2018-10-28", 0.03], ["2018-10-28", 0.03], ["2018-10-28", 0.065], ["2018-10-29", 0.065], ["2018-10-30", 0.065], ["2018-11-02", 0.065], ["2018-11-06", 0.065], ["2018-11-06", 0.09], ["2018-11-06", 0.1], ["2018-11-08", 0.125], ["2018-11-09", 0.12], ["2018-11-10", 0.125], ["2018-11-11", 0.125], ["2018-11-12", 0.12], ["2018-11-13", 0.12], ["2018-11-15", 0.12], ["2018-11-16", 0.12], ["2018-11-19", 0.12], ["2018-11-19", 0.105], ["2018-11-19", 0.105], ["2018-11-20", 0.105], ["2018-11-20", 0.105], ["2018-11-25", 0.105], ["2018-11-27", 0.105], ["2018-11-27", 0.075], ["2018-11-28", 0.075], ["2018-12-01", 0.075], ["2018-12-01", 0.075], ["2018-12-08", 0.1], ["2018-12-09", 0.1], ["2018-12-09", 0.1], ["2018-12-13", 0.1], ["2018-12-13", 0.1], ["2018-12-14", 0.1], ["2018-12-16", 0.1], ["2018-12-19", 0.085], ["2018-12-20", 0.085], ["2018-12-21", 0.085], ["2018-12-22", 0.085], ["2018-12-27", 0.085], ["2018-12-28", 0.085], ["2018-12-28", 0.1], ["2018-12-31", 0.1], ["2018-12-31", 0.1], ["2019-01-01", 0.1]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1018 | True |
2017-11-16 | Between 18 October and 28 December 2017, will any World War II Soviet monuments be taken down in Poland? | binary | Poland's president has approved amendments to a law that bans the promotion of communism, including World War II era memorials dedicated to Soviet troops (<a href = "https://www.rferl.org/a/28778037.html"target="_blank">Radio Free Europe</a>, <a href = "http://www.thestar.com.my/news/world/2017/07/20/russia-preparing-retaliation-against-poland-over-war-memorial-row--agencies/"target="_blank">The Star</a>). Russia has threatened to retaliate against Poland if they remove any of these monuments (<a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-40775355"target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-poland-sanctions-idUSKBN1A41VB"target="_blank">Reuters</a>). If a World War II Soviet monument is taken down (e.g. <a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36656226"target="_blank">BBC</a>) the question will close as yes regardless of who takes it down.
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Poland began dismantling of the Monument of Gratitude (<a href = "http://szczecin.wyborcza.pl/szczecin/7,34939,22661021,coraz-mniej-pomnika-wdziecznosci-ekipa-rozbiorkowa-pracuje.html"target="_blank">Wyborcza.pl</a>, <a href = "http://niezalezna.pl/209144-rozebrano-pomnik-wdziecznosci-dla-armii-radzieckiej-w-szczecinie"target="_blank">Niezalezna</a>). This question closed as “a) Yes,” with and end date of 16 November, 2017.
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<hr>
| 2017-11-22 | gjopen | ["https://www.wprost.pl/kraj/10086696/w-szczecinie-usuwaja-pomnik-wdziecznosci-armii-radzieckiej.html", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36656226", "http://www.hopenothate.org.uk/2017/10/30/richard-spencer-bound-europe/", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/615950", "https://bip.malopolska.pl/umkalwariazebrzydowska,m,23119,najblizsza-sesja.html", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/618937", "https://sputniknews.com/analysis/201711111059015719-russia-bulgaria-soviet-ww2/", "http://www.newsweek.com/poland-plans-removal-500-soviet-monuments-442661", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-40775355", "https://www.rferl.org/a/28778037.html", "http://tass.com/world/959860", "http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/ct-poland-independence-day-march-20171112-story.html", "https://sputniknews.com/europe/201612221048873613-poland-monument-soviet-tree/", "http://lublin.wyborcza.pl/lublin/7,48724,22645986,nowy-pomnik-na-pl-litewskim-jeszcze-w-tym-roku.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-poland-sanctions/russia-preparing-retaliation-against-poland-over-war-memorial-row-agencies-idUSKBN1A41VB", "http://www.dziennikwschodni.pl/krasnik/zolnierza-na-pomniku-trzeba-przebrac-teraz-wyglada-jak-partyzant-sowiecki,n,1000206388.html", "http://plus.gazetakrakowska.pl/region/a/pomnik-partyzantow-do-dekomunizacji,12336594", "https://liveuamap.com/en/2017/6-november-damage-in-pisky-village-west-to-donetsk-after", "https://ria.ru/world/20171024/1507436110.html", "http://niezalezna.pl/209144-rozebrano-pomnik-wdziecznosci-dla-armii-radzieckiej-w-szczecinie", "http://szczecin.wyborcza.pl/szczecin/7,34939,22647354,juz-niebawem-pomnik-wdziecznosci-zniknie-z-pl-zolnierza-polskiego.html", "http://wadowiceonline.pl/kultura/10680-sa-chetni-na-pomnik-i-tablice-z-kalwaryjskiego-pomniku", "http://bip.um.szczecin.pl/chapter_50509.asp?kadencja=VII&sesja=314", "https://twitter.com/ianbateson/status/922428384222892032", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Ukrainian_crisis"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-10-16 | 1.0 | [["2017-10-18", 0.8], ["2017-10-18", 0.75], ["2017-10-18", 0.65], ["2017-10-18", 0.775], ["2017-10-19", 0.6], ["2017-10-19", 0.89], ["2017-10-19", 0.6], ["2017-10-19", 0.66], ["2017-10-19", 0.66], ["2017-10-19", 0.66], ["2017-10-19", 0.685], ["2017-10-19", 0.65], ["2017-10-19", 0.5], ["2017-10-19", 0.5], ["2017-10-19", 0.5], ["2017-10-19", 0.5], ["2017-10-20", 0.5], ["2017-10-20", 0.5], ["2017-10-20", 0.5], ["2017-10-20", 0.65], ["2017-10-20", 0.5], ["2017-10-20", 0.65], ["2017-10-20", 0.65], ["2017-10-20", 0.65], ["2017-10-20", 0.65], ["2017-10-20", 0.775], ["2017-10-20", 0.75], ["2017-10-20", 0.8], ["2017-10-20", 0.775], ["2017-10-20", 0.7], ["2017-10-20", 0.7], ["2017-10-20", 0.65], ["2017-10-20", 0.65], ["2017-10-20", 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["2017-11-15", 0.4], ["2017-11-15", 0.4], ["2017-11-15", 0.4], ["2017-11-15", 0.4], ["2017-11-15", 0.4], ["2017-11-15", 0.4], ["2017-11-15", 0.4], ["2017-11-15", 0.4], ["2017-11-15", 0.41], ["2017-11-15", 0.41], ["2017-11-16", 0.41], ["2017-11-16", 0.41], ["2017-11-16", 0.45], ["2017-11-16", 0.49], ["2017-11-16", 0.49], ["2017-11-16", 0.5], ["2017-11-16", 0.5], ["2017-11-16", 0.505], ["2017-11-16", 0.505]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/649 | True |
2017-06-01 | Will Saudi Arabia's holdings of US treasury securities dip below $50 billion before 1 June 2017? | binary | Saudi Arabia warned of economic fallout from the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act, which Congress passed over the president's veto on September 28, 2016 (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/16/world/middleeast/saudi-arabia-warns-ofeconomic-fallout-if-congress-passes-9-11-bill.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href="http://www.salon.com/2016/09/29/saudi-arabia-may-still-fight-back-against-911-lawsuit-bill/" target="_blank">Salon</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/09/27/senate-poised-to-vote-to-override-obamas-veto-of-911-bill/" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>). The treasury holdings of foreign countries, including Saudi Arabia, are tracked by the Department of Treasury on a monthly basis: <a href="http://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt" target="_blank">US Department of the Treasury</a>. The government of Saudi Arabia held $93 billion in Treasury holdings in August 2016. If the question has not already resolved, it will be suspended on 31 May 2017 and closed when the May data are released, typically in mid July.
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<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/294" target="_blank">whether Russia will allow Turkish citizens to travel to Russia without a visa</a>, or <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/200" target="_blank">whether Saudi Arabia will list shares of Saudi Aramco in an initial public offering before 1 January 2018</a>.</sub>
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According to the <a href = "http://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt"target="_blank">Treasury International Capital</a>, Saudi Arabia's holdings of US treasury securities never dipped below $50 billion. This question has been closed a "b) No" with a closing date of 31 May 2017. | 2017-07-24 | gjopen | ["http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/saudi-arabia-seeking-8bn-loan-plug-fiscal-deficit-1548606", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/236-before-1-july-2017-will-scotland-set-a-date-for-another-referendum-on-independence-from-the-united-kingdom", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-16/u-s-discloses-saudi-arabia-s-treasuries-holdings-for-first-time", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-central-banks-are-stockpiling-foreign-reserves-1488914148", "http://www.newsweek.com/911-lawsuit-saudi-bin-laden-583984", "https://www.intelligenceonline.com/grey-areas/2017/06/07/how-washington-allowed-the-anti-qatar-offensive-to-come-into-being%2C108248698-ART?utm_source=INT&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PROS_EDIT_ART&did=108132865&eid=268585", "http://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt", "http://imgur.com/gallery/JNv8a", "http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/gulf/2016/11/15/Despite-JASTA-Saudi-US-investments-enjoy-immunity-.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-treasury-securities-idUSKBN13B2XG", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/trumps-impending-bans-on-refugees-and-immigrants-triggers-fears-globally/2017/01/26/c698e67e-e33d-11e6-a419-eefe8eff0835_story.html", "http://www.tradingeconomics.com/saudi-arabia/foreign-exchange-reserves", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-king-leads-hundreds-of-princes-clerics-military-officials-on-asia-trip-1488197009", "http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/crude-oil.aspx?timeframe=18m", "http://www.theglobaleconomy.com/South-Korea/Reserves/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pBWcRqPesws", "https://www.theasset.com/capital-markets/32903/china-saudi-arabia-increase-us-treasury-holdings", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-22/u-s-is-hiding-treasury-bond-data-that-s-suddenly-become-crucial", "http://www.marketwatch.com/story/opec-led-bounce-for-oil-prices-starts-to-dissolve-2016-12-05", "http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-16/saudis-china-dump-treasuries-foreign-central-banks-liquidate-record-375-billion-us-p", "http://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffreydorfman/2016/10/03/saudi-government-budget-cuts-prove-basic-income-is-no-solution-to-slow-economic-growth/#b783ab9760d1", "http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2017/05/19/522494/Saudis-turn-to-Trump-for-investments", "http://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/shlptab1.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/346-will-saudi-arabia-s-holdings-of-us-treasury-securities-dip-below-50-billion-before-1-june-2017?challenge_id=12", "http://www.arabianbusiness.com/saudi-finance-minister-very-optimistic-on-2016-budget-gap-652471.html"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-11-08 | 0.0 | [["2016-11-08", 0.0], ["2016-11-08", 0.45], ["2016-11-08", 0.75], ["2016-11-08", 0.155], ["2016-11-08", 0.02], ["2016-11-09", 0.18], ["2016-11-09", 0.18], 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2019-01-01 | Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Iraq engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Iraq? | binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and will be resolved in October 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Iraq from October 2018 to September 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples" target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJO's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.<p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. For more information on the resolution of this EWP question and its companion questions, see "<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpoct18sep19#" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Early Warning Project Question Resolutions: October 1, 2018-September 30, 2019</a>."</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2020-01-05 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2018-09-28 | 0.0 | [["2018-09-29", 0.08], ["2018-09-29", 0.14], ["2018-09-29", 0.1], ["2018-09-30", 0.09], ["2018-10-01", 0.09], ["2018-10-01", 0.08], ["2018-10-01", 0.09], ["2018-10-03", 0.09], ["2018-10-03", 0.08], ["2018-10-04", 0.08], ["2018-10-06", 0.08], ["2018-10-06", 0.08], ["2018-10-07", 0.07], ["2018-10-09", 0.07], ["2018-10-12", 0.065], ["2018-10-14", 0.055], ["2018-10-14", 0.055], ["2018-10-15", 0.035], ["2018-10-15", 0.025], ["2018-10-16", 0.025], ["2018-10-19", 0.025], ["2018-10-20", 0.025], ["2018-10-22", 0.035], ["2018-10-24", 0.035], ["2018-10-28", 0.025], ["2018-10-29", 0.04], ["2018-10-30", 0.04], ["2018-11-04", 0.04], ["2018-11-06", 0.035], ["2018-11-06", 0.065], ["2018-11-08", 0.035], ["2018-11-08", 0.035], ["2018-11-09", 0.085], ["2018-11-10", 0.085], ["2018-11-10", 0.085], ["2018-11-11", 0.05], ["2018-11-12", 0.05], ["2018-11-15", 0.05], ["2018-11-16", 0.08], ["2018-11-20", 0.08], ["2018-11-20", 0.08], ["2018-11-25", 0.095], ["2018-11-27", 0.065], ["2018-11-28", 0.06], ["2018-11-28", 0.06], ["2018-12-09", 0.06], ["2018-12-09", 0.06], ["2018-12-13", 0.085], ["2018-12-13", 0.085], ["2018-12-13", 0.175], ["2018-12-14", 0.175], ["2018-12-16", 0.175], ["2018-12-19", 0.1], ["2018-12-20", 0.1], ["2018-12-22", 0.05], ["2018-12-22", 0.05], ["2018-12-24", 0.05], ["2018-12-28", 0.07], ["2018-12-31", 0.07], ["2019-01-01", 0.07]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1022 | True |
2018-09-11 | Before 1 October 2018, will Brazil's Workers' Party nominate a candidate for president who is not Luiz Inàcio Lula da Silva? | binary | Lula's conviction and incarceration based upon corruption charges has cast doubt on his ability to run in Brazil's upcoming presidential election (<a href = "https://www.economist.com/news/americas/21740253-even-behind-bars-former-president-will-remain-force-be-reckoned-lula-goes-jail"target="_blank">The Economist</a>, <a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/04/16/lula-da-silva-is-in-jail-and-hes-still-brazils-leading-candidate-for-president-here-are-3-ways-that-could-turn-out/"target="_blank">The Washington Post</a>, <a href = "http://en.mercopress.com/2018/04/16/brazilian-electorate-cautious-a-week-after-the-imprisonment-of-lula-da-silva"target="_blank">MercoPress</a>, <a href = "http://www.theworldin.com/edition/2018/article/14417/clean-break-por-favor"target="_blank">The Economist</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as <a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/brazil-party-replaces-lula-da-silva-on-presidential-ballot/2018/09/11/e8dda6e0-b5ee-11e8-ae4f-2c1439c96d79_story.html"target="_blank">"yes"</a> with and end date of 11 September 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" tawrget="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| 2018-09-11 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2018-04-18 | 1.0 | [["2018-04-18", 1.0], ["2018-04-18", 0.9], ["2018-04-18", 0.95], ["2018-04-18", 0.875], ["2018-04-19", 0.85], ["2018-04-19", 0.95], ["2018-04-19", 0.97], ["2018-04-19", 0.98], ["2018-04-19", 0.99], ["2018-04-19", 0.99], ["2018-04-19", 0.99], ["2018-04-19", 0.99], ["2018-04-19", 0.97], ["2018-04-19", 0.965], ["2018-04-19", 0.95], ["2018-04-20", 0.965], ["2018-04-20", 0.98], ["2018-04-20", 0.99], ["2018-04-20", 0.99], ["2018-04-20", 0.995], ["2018-04-20", 0.995], ["2018-04-20", 0.995], ["2018-04-21", 0.99], ["2018-04-21", 0.99], ["2018-04-21", 0.98], ["2018-04-22", 0.965], ["2018-04-22", 0.925], ["2018-04-22", 0.925], ["2018-04-22", 0.895], ["2018-04-23", 0.885], ["2018-04-23", 0.88], ["2018-04-23", 0.85], ["2018-04-23", 0.85], ["2018-04-24", 0.85], ["2018-04-24", 0.825], ["2018-04-25", 0.825], ["2018-04-25", 0.825], ["2018-04-25", 0.835], ["2018-04-25", 0.85], ["2018-04-25", 0.85], 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2018-10-01 | Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi? | binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">The EWP</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2018 and will be resolved in July 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Burundi from July 2018 to June 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this. | 2019-12-09 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2018-06-27 | 0.0 | [["2018-06-27", 0.15], ["2018-06-27", 0.0], ["2018-06-27", 0.025], ["2018-06-27", 0.03], ["2018-06-27", 0.015], ["2018-06-27", 0.01], ["2018-06-28", 0.01], ["2018-06-28", 0.01], ["2018-06-28", 0.01], ["2018-06-28", 0.005], ["2018-06-29", 0.0], ["2018-06-29", 0.02], ["2018-06-29", 0.02], ["2018-07-01", 0.005], ["2018-07-02", 0.005], ["2018-07-02", 0.0], ["2018-07-03", 0.0], ["2018-07-03", 0.0], ["2018-07-03", 0.0], ["2018-07-03", 0.0], ["2018-07-03", 0.0], ["2018-07-04", 0.01], ["2018-07-06", 0.01], ["2018-07-06", 0.01], ["2018-07-09", 0.01], ["2018-07-12", 0.01], ["2018-07-13", 0.01], ["2018-07-15", 0.01], ["2018-07-16", 0.015], ["2018-07-18", 0.015], ["2018-07-19", 0.015], ["2018-07-23", 0.015], ["2018-07-23", 0.01], ["2018-07-24", 0.01], ["2018-07-29", 0.01], ["2018-07-30", 0.01], ["2018-08-03", 0.015], ["2018-08-05", 0.015], ["2018-08-06", 0.01], ["2018-08-09", 0.01], ["2018-08-09", 0.01], ["2018-08-12", 0.01], ["2018-08-13", 0.01], ["2018-08-14", 0.01], ["2018-08-16", 0.01], ["2018-08-18", 0.01], ["2018-08-22", 0.01], ["2018-08-23", 0.01], ["2018-08-27", 0.01], ["2018-09-02", 0.01], ["2018-09-03", 0.01], ["2018-09-06", 0.01], ["2018-09-11", 0.01], ["2018-09-12", 0.01], ["2018-09-13", 0.01], ["2018-09-13", 0.005], ["2018-09-15", 0.005], ["2018-09-18", 0.005], ["2018-09-20", 0.01], ["2018-09-22", 0.01], ["2018-09-24", 0.01], ["2018-09-25", 0.005], ["2018-09-26", 0.0], ["2018-09-28", 0.0], ["2018-09-29", 0.0], ["2018-10-01", 0.0], ["2018-10-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/981 | True |
2017-07-01 | Will an early election or a recall referendum take place in Venezuela before 1 July 2017? | binary | The political crisis in Venezuela has continued to escalate, with the opposition calling for early elections or a recall referendum (<a href="http://time.com/4561509/venezuela-nicolas-maduro-protests/" target = "_blank">Time</a>,<a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanielparishflannery/2016/10/28/political-risk-analysis-is-venezuela-now-entering-a-full-blown-political-crisis/#50fc1e4e418f" target ="_blank"> Forbes </a>, <a href="http://www.theworldin.com/article/12609/red-retreat" target = "_blank">The World In 2017</a>). President Maduro has stated that early elections are not on the table, but has agreed to participate in Vatican-sponsored negotiations with the opposition (<a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-37973816" target = "_blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-idUSKBN13W03Z?il=0" target = "_blank">Reuters</a>). For more information on constitutional requirements for a recall referendum see Chapter IV, Section 2, Article 72 of Venezuela's constitution (<a href = "https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Venezuela_2009.pdf?lang=en" target = "_blank">Constitute Project</a>).
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<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/162" target = "_blank"> the likelihood of Petroleos de Venezuela SA defaulting on Foreign Debt</a>, <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/286" target = _"blank">a new president for Zimbabwe</a>, <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/108" target = "_blank"> Syrian Elections</a>, or <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/268" target = "_blank">the outcome of the French Presidential Election</a>.</sub>
<hr>
Neither an early election or recall referendum took place in Venezuela. This question closed as "b) no" with an end date of 30 June 2017.
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<hr> | 2017-07-06 | gjopen | ["http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/venezuela-crisis/venezuela-protests-economic-crisis-what-going-n755306", "https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/venezuelan-presidents-opponents-lay-siege-air-213206741.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-30/venezuela-s-supreme-court-takes-over-national-assembly-duties", "http://country.eiu.com/venezuela", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-idUSKBN19I2RV", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-idUSKBN18S5O4", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/maduro-seeks-to-diffuse-tensions-in-venezuela-1491050119", "https://www.amazon.com/Dictators-Handbook-Behavior-Almost-Politics/dp/1610391845/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1495325995&sr=8-1&keywords=dictators+handbook", "http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-01/10/c_135971142.htm", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/venezuelas-maduro-oversees-military-drill-guard-socialist-fatherland-193915514.html", "http://www.economist.com/blogs/erasmus/2016/10/venezuela-and-vatican", "http://www.pravdareport.com/world/americas/12-01-2017/136613-venezuela-0/#sthash.0guBKUfS.dpuf", "http://www.startribune.com/venezuela-once-south-america-s-richest-country-continues-to-spiral/412209203/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/405972", "https://www.dailysabah.com/americas/2017/05/26/barricades-protests-spread-after-venezuela-election-dates-set", "http://www.thenewamerican.com/world-news/south-america/item/23625-venezuela-now-a-military-dictatorship", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-idUSKBN19E2G8", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-idUSKBN18Y3B3", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-oil-insight-idUSKBN15O2BC", "http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21715658-economy-collapsing-nation-war-government-blame-venezuelas-leaders", "https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2017-06-20/venezuelan-crisis-takes-center-stage-at-oas-meeting-in-mexico", "http://elcooperante.com/jorge-rodriguez-la-cev-se-comporta-como-partido-politico-y-han-boicoteado-el-dialogo/", "http://money.cnn.com/2017/03/01/news/economy/venezuela-cash/index.html?iid=EL", "http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/yes-i-want-elections-now-venezuelan-president-maduro-says-he-calls-talks-opposition-1618268", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-idUSKBN17Q1KO"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-12-13 | 0.0 | [["2016-12-13", 1.0], ["2016-12-13", 0.5], ["2016-12-13", 0.21], ["2016-12-13", 0.28], ["2016-12-13", 0.4], ["2016-12-14", 0.2], ["2016-12-14", 0.15], ["2016-12-14", 0.135], ["2016-12-15", 0.12], ["2016-12-15", 0.135], ["2016-12-15", 0.175], ["2016-12-15", 0.18], ["2016-12-15", 0.19], ["2016-12-15", 0.2], ["2016-12-16", 0.2], ["2016-12-16", 0.24], ["2016-12-16", 0.25], ["2016-12-17", 0.24], ["2016-12-17", 0.25], ["2016-12-18", 0.26], ["2016-12-18", 0.275], ["2016-12-18", 0.3], ["2016-12-18", 0.315], ["2016-12-18", 0.265], ["2016-12-18", 0.23], 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["2017-06-29", 0.0], ["2017-06-30", 0.0], ["2017-06-30", 0.0], ["2017-07-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/366 | True |
2017-12-31 | Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?
| binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 December 2017 and will be resolved in October 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Yemen from October 2017 through September 2018.. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this.
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This question was closed as 'No' (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2018/12/06/early-warning-project-question-resolutions-october-1-2017-september-30-2018/"target="_blank">EWP/Good Judgment</a>).
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2018-07-20 | Between 21 July 2017 and 20 July 2018, will any major automaker announce a date after which they will sell only electric or hybrid vehicles? | binary | For the purposes of this question, "major automakers" are any of the car brands or whole car companies identified in this <a href = "http://www.visualcapitalist.com/14-companies-control-entire-auto-industry/"target="_blank">infographic</a>. Volvo recently announced that starting in 2019 all new models it produces will be electric or hybrid (<a href = "https://www.media.volvocars.com/global/en-gb/media/pressreleases/210058/volvo-cars-to-go-all-electric"target="_blank">Volvo</a>, <a href = "https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeltaylor/2017/07/05/most-of-what-youve-read-on-volvos-electric-car-strategy-is-badly-misleading/"target="_blank">Forbes</a>). Announcements that only apply to a certain market segment or geographic location will not count.
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<hr>
| 2018-07-24 | gjopen | ["https://www.livescience.com/49594-electric-fuel-cell-vehicles-explainer.html", "https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/xx/pdf/2017/01/global-automotive-executive-survey-2017.pdf", "http://www.visualcapitalist.com/14-companies-control-entire-auto-industry/", "https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/oct/07/how-green-is-britains-low-carbon-energy-supply", "https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/sep/07/jaguar-land-rover-electric-hybrid-cars-2020", "https://www.watson.ch/!688925062?utm_source=whatsapp&utm_medium=social-user&utm_campaign=watson-app-ios", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-detroit-peugeot/peugeot-ceo-outlines-ambitious-plan-to-re-enter-u-s-go-electric-idUSKBN1F706J", "https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/17/peugeot-is-aiming-to-have-all-vehicles-electrified-by-2025-ceo-says.html", "https://www.topspeed.com/cars/car-news/vw-bmw-and-daimler-also-gas-chambered-humans-in-diesel-emission-study-ar179569.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jul/05/volvo-cars-electric-hybrid-2019", "https://www.npr.org/2018/01/11/577279673/established-automakers-announce-bold-moves-in-electrification", "https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2018/01/16/nissan-ceo-infiniti-luxury-brand-switch-electric-cars-hybrids/1038293001/", "http://gazettereview.com/2016/01/volkswagen-ag-adr-otcmktsvlkay-sees-sales-decline-in-u-s-for-december/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_cell_vehicle", "https://newsroom.toyota.co.jp/en/corporate/20353243.html", "http://autoweek.com/article/green-cars/infiniti-will-go-mostly-electric-2021", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/682896", "https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jul/28/record-46-of-uks-electricity-generated-by-clean-energy-sources-in-2015", "https://www.motoring.com.au/tokyo-motor-show-toyota-to-phase-out-petrol-and-diesel-engines-by-2040-109549/", "https://www.ft.com/content/af64f116-fbf9-11e7-a492-2c9be7f3120a", "https://electrek.co/2017/12/18/toyota-electric-car-plans/", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/184-will-toyota-sell-or-lease-more-than-750-mirai-in-the-us-in-2016", "https://www.zap-map.com/hydrogen-vehicles-vs-electric-vehicles-is-there-room-for-both/", "https://www.wired.com/2016/10/german-auto-industry-finally-maybe-done-gas/", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackperkowski/2017/08/03/ev-batteries-a-240-billion-industry-in-the-making/#4280b1b93f08"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-07-21 | 0.0 | [["2017-07-22", 0.2], ["2017-07-22", 0.58], ["2017-07-22", 0.68], ["2017-07-22", 0.8], ["2017-07-23", 0.52], ["2017-07-23", 0.635], ["2017-07-23", 0.77], ["2017-07-23", 0.835], ["2017-07-24", 0.835], ["2017-07-24", 0.7], ["2017-07-24", 0.675], ["2017-07-25", 0.6], ["2017-07-25", 0.45], ["2017-07-25", 0.35], ["2017-07-25", 0.39], ["2017-07-26", 0.325], ["2017-07-26", 0.37], ["2017-07-26", 0.4], ["2017-07-27", 0.4], ["2017-07-27", 0.425], ["2017-07-27", 0.345], ["2017-07-28", 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2015-11-26 | Will Joe Biden announce that he is running for President of the United States before Thanksgiving? | binary | There is wide speculation about whether Vice President Biden will seek the Democratic nomination (http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/02/politics/biden-florida-president-campaign/ , http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/03/is-joe-biden-running-for-president/387115/ ).
Please note that Thanksgiving in the United States will be celebrated on November 26, 2015. | 2015-11-30 | gjopen | ["https://youtu.be/1BsCgxZHDiI", "http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/10/22/us/politics/joe-biden-will-not-run-for-president.html?referer=http://www.google.com.au/search?q=biden&oq=bid&gs_l=mobile-heirloom-serp.1.2.0i131l3j0l2.1812.2770.0.4810.4.3.0.1.1.0.358.1011.3-3.3.0....0...1c.1.34.mobile-heirloom-serp..0.4.1056.wpZE4BZjnWM", "http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/bernie-sanders-joe-biden_56339e26e4b063179912243e", "http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3299310/Benghazi-probe-Hillary-Clinton-facing-months-FBI-investigation-emails.html", "http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/10/21/biden-to-speak-in-rose-garden/?intcmp=hpbt1", "http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/national/article41972739.html", "http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/21/politics/joe-biden-not-running-2016-election/", "http://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-on-running-for-president-2015-10", "http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2015/03/us-presidential-candidate-announcements", "http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/23/us/politics/hillary-clinton-benghazi-committee.html", "http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/watch-biden-make-announcement-rose-garden", "http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/23/us/politics/hillary-clinton-joe-biden-presidential-election.html", "https://www.predictit.org/Contract/983/Will-the-DOJ-open-a-criminal-investigation-into-Clinton's-email-this-year#data", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mOD0XCm57d8", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/28324", "http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/22/us/politics/joe-biden-will-not-run-for-president.html?_r=0", "https://www.yahoo.com/politics/joe-biden-didnt-run-for-president-because-he-135129644.html", "https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1161/Will-a-federal-criminal-charge-be-filed-against-Hillary-Clinton-in-2015#data", "http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/10/29/bernie-sanders-meets-with-joe-biden-on-campaign-issues/", "http://www.people.com/article/joe-biden-decided-not-run-president-grief-son-beau-death", "http://ballotpedia.org/Joe_Biden_possible_presidential_campaign,_2016", "http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/22/us/politics/joe-biden-will-not-run-for-president.html?_r=0&mtrref=undefined&gwh=A789D77DF4044D6D85CAC9F2365D529D&gwt=pay&assetType=nyt_now", "http://newsok.com/vp-joe-biden-says-he-will-not-run-for-president-in-2016/article/5454992?newsletter=breaking-email-dynamic", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/democratic-presidential-candidates-scramble-to-lure-joe-bidens-supporters-1446384989", "http://www.vox.com/2015/7/9/8922395/Joe-Biden-run-president"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2015-09-14 | 0.0 | [["2015-09-14", 0.675], ["2015-09-14", 0.625], ["2015-09-15", 0.6], ["2015-09-15", 0.6], ["2015-09-15", 0.545], ["2015-09-15", 0.365], ["2015-09-15", 0.315], ["2015-09-15", 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["2015-10-29", 0.05], ["2015-10-30", 0.05], ["2015-10-30", 0.05], ["2015-10-31", 0.05], ["2015-10-31", 0.05], ["2015-11-01", 0.05], ["2015-11-01", 0.05], ["2015-11-01", 0.05], ["2015-11-01", 0.05], ["2015-11-01", 0.05], ["2015-11-02", 0.05], ["2015-11-02", 0.05], ["2015-11-02", 0.05], ["2015-11-02", 0.05], ["2015-11-03", 0.05], ["2015-11-03", 0.05], ["2015-11-03", 0.05], ["2015-11-03", 0.05], ["2015-11-04", 0.05], ["2015-11-04", 0.045], ["2015-11-04", 0.04], ["2015-11-04", 0.04], ["2015-11-04", 0.025], ["2015-11-05", 0.02], ["2015-11-05", 0.02], ["2015-11-06", 0.02], ["2015-11-07", 0.02], ["2015-11-07", 0.02], ["2015-11-08", 0.02], ["2015-11-09", 0.02], ["2015-11-09", 0.02], ["2015-11-10", 0.02], ["2015-11-11", 0.02], ["2015-11-11", 0.02], ["2015-11-12", 0.02], ["2015-11-13", 0.02], ["2015-11-14", 0.02], ["2015-11-15", 0.02], ["2015-11-15", 0.02], ["2015-11-16", 0.02], ["2015-11-16", 0.02], ["2015-11-16", 0.02], ["2015-11-17", 0.01], ["2015-11-18", 0.01], ["2015-11-18", 0.01], ["2015-11-19", 0.01], ["2015-11-19", 0.01], ["2015-11-20", 0.01], ["2015-11-21", 0.01], ["2015-11-22", 0.01], ["2015-11-23", 0.01], ["2015-11-23", 0.01], ["2015-11-24", 0.01], ["2015-11-24", 0.01], ["2015-11-25", 0.01], ["2015-11-25", 0.01], ["2015-11-26", 0.01], ["2015-11-26", 0.01]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/37 | True |
2018-10-01 | Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen? | binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">The EWP</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2018 and will be resolved in July 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Yemen from July 2018 to June 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this. | 2019-12-09 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2018-06-27 | 0.0 | [["2018-06-27", 0.45], ["2018-06-27", 0.25], ["2018-06-27", 0.185], ["2018-06-27", 0.195], ["2018-06-27", 0.2], ["2018-06-27", 0.27], ["2018-06-27", 0.13], ["2018-06-27", 0.125], ["2018-06-28", 0.11], ["2018-06-28", 0.11], ["2018-06-28", 0.11], ["2018-06-28", 0.11], ["2018-06-28", 0.12], ["2018-06-29", 0.11], ["2018-06-29", 0.15], ["2018-06-29", 0.13], ["2018-06-29", 0.125], ["2018-06-30", 0.1], ["2018-07-01", 0.125], ["2018-07-02", 0.125], ["2018-07-02", 0.1], ["2018-07-03", 0.1], ["2018-07-03", 0.1], ["2018-07-03", 0.09], ["2018-07-03", 0.095], ["2018-07-03", 0.085], ["2018-07-04", 0.085], ["2018-07-05", 0.105], ["2018-07-06", 0.12], ["2018-07-06", 0.12], ["2018-07-09", 0.12], ["2018-07-12", 0.12], ["2018-07-14", 0.12], ["2018-07-15", 0.12], ["2018-07-16", 0.15], ["2018-07-18", 0.15], ["2018-07-19", 0.15], ["2018-07-23", 0.15], ["2018-07-24", 0.14], ["2018-07-24", 0.13], ["2018-07-26", 0.105], ["2018-07-29", 0.105], ["2018-07-30", 0.105], ["2018-07-30", 0.105], ["2018-08-01", 0.095], ["2018-08-03", 0.095], ["2018-08-05", 0.095], ["2018-08-09", 0.05], ["2018-08-09", 0.06], ["2018-08-13", 0.06], ["2018-08-13", 0.06], ["2018-08-14", 0.06], ["2018-08-16", 0.085], ["2018-08-18", 0.085], ["2018-08-22", 0.085], ["2018-08-23", 0.085], ["2018-08-26", 0.09], ["2018-08-27", 0.09], ["2018-08-30", 0.095], ["2018-09-03", 0.095], ["2018-09-06", 0.095], ["2018-09-11", 0.095], ["2018-09-13", 0.095], ["2018-09-13", 0.045], ["2018-09-18", 0.045], ["2018-09-20", 0.06], ["2018-09-22", 0.06], ["2018-09-23", 0.06], ["2018-09-24", 0.06], ["2018-09-25", 0.045], ["2018-09-28", 0.08], ["2018-09-28", 0.08], ["2018-09-29", 0.08], ["2018-10-01", 0.08]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/985 | True |
2019-03-31 | Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar? | binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Myanmar from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://earlywarningproject.ushmm.org"target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
| 2020-03-18 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2018-12-28 | 0.0 | [["2018-12-28", 0.27], ["2018-12-28", 0.21], ["2018-12-28", 0.215], ["2018-12-29", 0.205], ["2018-12-29", 0.21], ["2018-12-31", 0.185], ["2018-12-31", 0.17], ["2019-01-02", 0.085], ["2019-01-03", 0.03], ["2019-01-03", 0.015], ["2019-01-04", 0.015], ["2019-01-04", 0.03], ["2019-01-04", 0.055], ["2019-01-06", 0.05], ["2019-01-06", 0.065], ["2019-01-06", 0.065], ["2019-01-06", 0.09], ["2019-01-06", 0.125], ["2019-01-06", 0.19], ["2019-01-06", 0.19], ["2019-01-06", 0.19], ["2019-01-07", 0.19], ["2019-01-07", 0.2], ["2019-01-07", 0.275], ["2019-01-07", 0.375], ["2019-01-09", 0.275], ["2019-01-12", 0.275], ["2019-01-13", 0.185], ["2019-01-13", 0.14], ["2019-01-13", 0.135], ["2019-01-13", 0.135], ["2019-01-15", 0.135], ["2019-01-16", 0.135], ["2019-01-16", 0.12], ["2019-01-16", 0.135], ["2019-01-18", 0.155], ["2019-01-18", 0.135], ["2019-01-19", 0.135], ["2019-01-22", 0.135], ["2019-01-23", 0.155], ["2019-01-23", 0.16], ["2019-01-26", 0.16], ["2019-01-31", 0.16], ["2019-02-01", 0.16], ["2019-02-01", 0.16], ["2019-02-03", 0.155], ["2019-02-05", 0.155], ["2019-02-06", 0.135], ["2019-02-06", 0.11], ["2019-02-08", 0.11], ["2019-02-08", 0.085], ["2019-02-11", 0.085], ["2019-02-12", 0.085], ["2019-02-13", 0.085], ["2019-02-16", 0.07], ["2019-02-16", 0.07], ["2019-02-20", 0.07], ["2019-02-22", 0.1], ["2019-02-24", 0.1], ["2019-02-26", 0.1], ["2019-02-27", 0.085], ["2019-02-28", 0.085], ["2019-02-28", 0.07], ["2019-03-01", 0.07], ["2019-03-01", 0.07], ["2019-03-04", 0.07], ["2019-03-05", 0.06], ["2019-03-07", 0.05], ["2019-03-07", 0.05], ["2019-03-09", 0.05], ["2019-03-09", 0.05], ["2019-03-11", 0.05], ["2019-03-11", 0.05], ["2019-03-11", 0.05], ["2019-03-12", 0.06], ["2019-03-12", 0.05], ["2019-03-13", 0.05], ["2019-03-14", 0.05], ["2019-03-19", 0.05], ["2019-03-22", 0.05], ["2019-03-22", 0.05], ["2019-03-24", 0.05], ["2019-03-25", 0.05], ["2019-03-28", 0.05], ["2019-03-29", 0.05], ["2019-03-29", 0.045], ["2019-03-31", 0.045]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1086 | True |
2017-10-01 | Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?
| binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2017 and will be resolved in July 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Myanmar from July 2017 through June 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as 'Yes', with resolutions further detailed in this <a href = "https://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2018/08/01/early-warning-project-question-resolutions-july-1-2017-june-30-2018/"target="_blank">GJ Open blog post written by EWP</a>.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| 2019-12-09 | gjopen | ["http://www.haaretz.com/world-news/asia-and-australia/1.809975?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/09/myanmar-laying-landmines-bangladesh-border-reports-170906014211124.html", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/09/violence-lead-exodus-300000-rohingya-170907024358023.html", "https://frontiermyanmar.net/en/bangladesh-offers-myanmar-army-aid-against-arsa", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-rohingya/rohingya-muslims-flee-as-more-than-2600-houses-burned-in-myanmars-rakhine-idUSKCN1BD083?il=0", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-rohingya-iom-idUSKCN1BA0I7", "http://www.aljazeera.com/video/news/2017/08/myanmars-rohingya-stranded-bangladesh-border-170828145108787.html", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/08/deadly-clashes-erupt-myanmar-restive-rakhine-state-170825055848004.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/27/thousands-evacuated-as-violence-flares-in-myanmar-rohingya-bangladesh", "https://www.dailysabah.com/diplomacy/2017/09/05/turkey-to-send-aid-to-rohingya-in-myanmar-after-erdogans-talks-with-aung-san-suu-kyi", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/09/suspends-food-aid-refugees-myanmar-170902072235098.html", "https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/08/29/burma-satellite-data-indicate-burnings-rakhine-state", "http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/09/iran-turkey-myanmar-rohingya-muslims-aid-refugees.html?utm_source=Boomtrain&utm_medium=manual&utm_campaign=20170912&bt_ee=Z8TvtZIvd4gEPzsLiBqVTJ9lWzq9gFd/DZquptMztXJIlKy526pBfsJrc382Cz+N&bt_ts=1505231866933", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/09/chief-urges-restraint-myanmar-forces-rakhine-170901183348675.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/01/world/asia/myanmar-rohingya-refugees-boat-sinks.html", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/04/asia/rohingya-refugees-myanmar-military/index.html", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/08/myanmar-deploys-troops-restive-rohingya-area-170812045322032.html", "http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/09/iran-turkey-myanmar-rohingya-muslims-aid-refugees.html#ixzz4sUPDXzqU"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-06-30 | 1.0 | [["2017-06-30", 0.01], ["2017-06-30", 0.15], ["2017-07-01", 0.075], ["2017-07-01", 0.0], ["2017-07-01", 0.005], ["2017-07-01", 0.01], ["2017-07-01", 0.01], ["2017-07-01", 0.01], ["2017-07-02", 0.01], ["2017-07-02", 0.03], ["2017-07-02", 0.03], ["2017-07-03", 0.03], ["2017-07-03", 0.03], ["2017-07-03", 0.03], ["2017-07-04", 0.03], ["2017-07-04", 0.005], ["2017-07-04", 0.01], ["2017-07-04", 0.01], ["2017-07-05", 0.01], ["2017-07-05", 0.03], ["2017-07-05", 0.03], ["2017-07-05", 0.03], ["2017-07-06", 0.03], ["2017-07-06", 0.03], ["2017-07-07", 0.03], ["2017-07-07", 0.03], ["2017-07-08", 0.03], ["2017-07-09", 0.005], ["2017-07-09", 0.005], ["2017-07-09", 0.01], ["2017-07-09", 0.005], ["2017-07-10", 0.005], ["2017-07-11", 0.01], ["2017-07-11", 0.01], ["2017-07-11", 0.01], ["2017-07-11", 0.02], 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2019-03-31 | Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali? | binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Mali from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://earlywarningproject.ushmm.org"target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this.
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<hr>
| 2020-03-18 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2018-12-28 | 0.0 | [["2018-12-28", 0.01], ["2018-12-28", 0.08], ["2018-12-29", 0.08], ["2018-12-29", 0.1], ["2018-12-29", 0.1], ["2018-12-31", 0.1], ["2018-12-31", 0.055], ["2019-01-01", 0.055], ["2019-01-02", 0.01], ["2019-01-02", 0.01], ["2019-01-02", 0.005], ["2019-01-03", 0.01], ["2019-01-03", 0.005], ["2019-01-04", 0.005], ["2019-01-04", 0.0], ["2019-01-04", 0.0], ["2019-01-06", 0.005], ["2019-01-06", 0.005], ["2019-01-06", 0.03], ["2019-01-06", 0.05], ["2019-01-06", 0.05], ["2019-01-07", 0.06], ["2019-01-07", 0.06], ["2019-01-07", 0.09], ["2019-01-07", 0.09], ["2019-01-09", 0.06], ["2019-01-12", 0.085], ["2019-01-13", 0.06], ["2019-01-13", 0.06], ["2019-01-15", 0.06], ["2019-01-16", 0.06], ["2019-01-18", 0.05], ["2019-01-20", 0.05], ["2019-01-21", 0.05], ["2019-01-22", 0.05], ["2019-01-22", 0.05], ["2019-01-23", 0.05], ["2019-01-26", 0.06], ["2019-01-28", 0.045], ["2019-01-29", 0.045], ["2019-01-30", 0.045], ["2019-01-31", 0.045], ["2019-02-01", 0.045], ["2019-02-03", 0.05], ["2019-02-04", 0.05], ["2019-02-05", 0.05], ["2019-02-05", 0.05], ["2019-02-08", 0.05], ["2019-02-08", 0.05], ["2019-02-11", 0.05], ["2019-02-12", 0.05], ["2019-02-16", 0.045], ["2019-02-16", 0.045], ["2019-02-20", 0.03], ["2019-02-20", 0.03], ["2019-02-20", 0.03], ["2019-02-22", 0.03], ["2019-02-22", 0.02], ["2019-02-24", 0.02], ["2019-02-25", 0.02], ["2019-02-26", 0.02], ["2019-02-27", 0.02], ["2019-02-28", 0.02], ["2019-02-28", 0.02], ["2019-03-01", 0.02], ["2019-03-01", 0.02], ["2019-03-01", 0.025], ["2019-03-04", 0.025], ["2019-03-05", 0.025], ["2019-03-07", 0.03], ["2019-03-07", 0.03], ["2019-03-07", 0.03], ["2019-03-07", 0.04], ["2019-03-07", 0.05], ["2019-03-09", 0.05], ["2019-03-09", 0.05], ["2019-03-10", 0.05], ["2019-03-10", 0.05], ["2019-03-11", 0.05], ["2019-03-11", 0.05], ["2019-03-11", 0.05], ["2019-03-12", 0.05], ["2019-03-13", 0.05], ["2019-03-13", 0.05], ["2019-03-14", 0.05], ["2019-03-19", 0.05], ["2019-03-21", 0.05], ["2019-03-22", 0.05], ["2019-03-22", 0.05], ["2019-03-24", 0.05], ["2019-03-24", 0.05], ["2019-03-24", 0.05], ["2019-03-27", 0.05], ["2019-03-29", 0.05], ["2019-03-30", 0.05], ["2019-03-30", 0.05], ["2019-03-31", 0.05]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1075 | True |
2017-07-01 | Before 1 July 2017, will any other European Union (EU) member state set a date for a referendum on leaving the EU? | binary | The victory of the "leave" campaign in the United Kingdom's June referendum has spurred calls for similar votes in other EU member states (<a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36615879" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/682339/Brexit-spreads-across-Europe-Italy-France-Holland-Denmark-all-call-for-referendums" target="_blank">Express</a>). "Any other member state" refers to EU member states other than the United Kingdom.
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</hr>
To date no EU member state has officially set a date for an EU exit referendum. This question was closed as "b) no" with an end date of 30 June 2017.
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<hr> | 2017-07-06 | gjopen | ["http://nltimes.nl/2016/06/21/majority-dutch-also-want-referendum-eu-membership", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21148282", "http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/eu-leaders-urged-stick-together-9753827", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/europes-periphery-debt-market-welcomes-new-member-france-1487604548?mod=e2fb", "http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21716629-bitter-argument-over-money-looms-multi-billion-euro-exit-charge-could-sink-brexit", "https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-03-08/brexit-talks-where-will-the-eu-red-lines-be-after-article-50", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/418426", "https://www.ft.com/content/60a534e0-c6cc-11e6-8f29-9445cac8966f", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-juncker-idUSKBN16P0PF", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2017/01/24/trump-threatens-to-send-in-the-feds-to-address-chicago-carnage/?utm_term=.bc22f7ed85cf", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-germany-merkel-idUSKBN16V05P", "https://youtu.be/jfoufXs01KU", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_Referendum_Act_2015", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-schaeuble-idUSKBN15921T?mod=related&channelName=worldNews", "https://www.ft.com/content/935a7d98-12e2-11e7-80f4-13e067d5072c", "http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/will-the-netherlands-follow-brexit-with-nexit-1.2701518", "https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-02-27/how-brexit-means-eu-loses-money-influence-and-military-strength", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35621079", "http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2016/05/narrow-majority-of-dutch-dont-want-referendum-on-eu-membership/", "http://www.latimes.com/world/europe/la-fg-europe-trump-20170203-story.html", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32633099", "https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-01-16/merkel-says-europe-controls-its-own-fate-in-rebuff-to-trump", 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2018-06-04 | In Masterpiece Cakeshop, Ltd. v. Colorado Civil Rights Commission, will the Supreme Court rule that the application of a Colorado anti-discrimination law to compel Jack Phillips to make a cake for a same-sex wedding violates any of his First Amendment rights? | binary | In 2015, the <a href = "https://www.courts.state.co.us/Courts/Court_of_Appeals/Opinion/2015/14CA1351-PD.pdf"target="_blank">Colorado Court of Appeals</a><a href = "http://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/masterpiece-cakeshop-ltd-v-colorado-civil-rights-commn/"target="_blank"> ruled</a> that Jack Phillips, owner of Masterpiece Cakeshop, Ltd, violated the Colorado Anti-Discrimination Act by refusing to make a cake for the wedding of a <a href = "http://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/local-news/masterpiece-cakeshop-owner-cannot-refuse-wedding-cakes-for-same-sex-couples-court-of-appeals-says"target="_blank">local gay couple</a>. Phillips refused because of his religious beliefs regarding same-sex marriage. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its current term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as no.
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<hr>
The Supreme Court did rule that the application of a Colorado anti-discrimination law to compel Jack Phillips to make a cake for a same-sex wedding violated his First Amendment rights. This question closed a "a) Yes" with an end date of 4 June 2018.
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"http://www.gjopen.com/questions/681-in-masterpiece-cakeshop-ltd-v-colorado-civil-rights-commission-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-application-of-a-colorado-anti-discrimination-law-to-compel-jack-phillips-to-make-a-cake-for-a-same-sex-wedding-violates-any-of-his-first-amendment-rights#flyover-comment-629802-flag-modal", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-kennedy/no-matter-how-you-slice-it-u-s-jurist-kennedy-key-vote-in-cake-case-idUSKCN1C21E9", "https://www.courts.state.co.us/Courts/Court_of_Appeals/Opinion/2015/14CA1351-PD.pdf", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/681-in-masterpiece-cakeshop-ltd-v-colorado-civil-rights-commission-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-application-of-a-colorado-anti-discrimination-law-to-compel-jack-phillips-to-make-a-cake-for-a-same-sex-wedding-violates-any-of-his-first-amendment-rights/www.gjopen.com/questions/681-in-masterpiece-cakeshop-ltd-v-colorado-civil-rights-commission-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-application-of-a-colorado-anti-discrimination-law-to-compel-jack-phillips-to-make-a-cake-for-a-same-sex-wedding-violates-any-of-his-first-amendment-rights#flyover-comment-629802-flag-modal", "https://ballotpedia.org/Masterpiece_Cakeshop_v._Colorado_Civil_Rights_Commission?utm_source=Iterable&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=FederalTap", "https://twitter.com/AHoweBlogger/status/938085600946741248", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/633592", "https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcripts/2017/16-111_f314.pdf", "http://www.scotusblog.com/2016/05/symposium-punting-on-substantial-religious-burden-the-supreme-court-provides-no-guidance-for-future-rfra-challenges-to-anti-discrimination-laws-2/", "http://amylhowe.com/2017/12/05/argument-analysis-conservative-majority-leaning-toward-ruling-colorado-baker/", "https://www.colorado.gov/pacific/costillacounty/atom/3111", "https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/418/683/case.html", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/689003", "https://www.nbcnews.com/feature/nbc-out/court-rules-against-oregon-bakers-who-refused-make-gay-wedding-n833321"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-11-03 | 1.0 | [["2017-11-03", 0.4], ["2017-11-03", 0.125], ["2017-11-03", 0.51], ["2017-11-03", 0.605], ["2017-11-03", 0.135], ["2017-11-03", 0.35], ["2017-11-03", 0.235], ["2017-11-03", 0.325], ["2017-11-03", 0.3], ["2017-11-03", 0.275], ["2017-11-03", 0.2], ["2017-11-03", 0.2], ["2017-11-03", 0.225], ["2017-11-03", 0.25], ["2017-11-04", 0.25], 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["2017-11-30", 0.465], ["2017-11-30", 0.495], ["2017-12-01", 0.5], ["2017-12-01", 0.5], ["2017-12-01", 0.5], ["2017-12-01", 0.5], ["2017-12-02", 0.5], ["2017-12-02", 0.525], ["2017-12-02", 0.55], ["2017-12-03", 0.55], ["2017-12-03", 0.55], ["2017-12-04", 0.55], ["2017-12-04", 0.55], ["2017-12-04", 0.55], ["2017-12-04", 0.55], ["2017-12-05", 0.55], ["2017-12-05", 0.55], ["2017-12-05", 0.55], ["2017-12-05", 0.55], ["2017-12-05", 0.55], ["2017-12-05", 0.55], ["2017-12-05", 0.55], ["2017-12-06", 0.55], ["2017-12-06", 0.55], ["2017-12-06", 0.55], ["2017-12-07", 0.55], ["2017-12-07", 0.55], ["2017-12-07", 0.55], ["2017-12-08", 0.55], ["2017-12-08", 0.55], ["2017-12-09", 0.555], ["2017-12-09", 0.58], ["2017-12-09", 0.56], ["2017-12-09", 0.58], ["2017-12-10", 0.6], ["2017-12-10", 0.6], ["2017-12-12", 0.6], ["2017-12-13", 0.6], ["2017-12-13", 0.6], ["2017-12-13", 0.6], ["2017-12-13", 0.6], ["2017-12-14", 0.6], ["2017-12-15", 0.6], ["2017-12-15", 0.6], ["2017-12-16", 0.6], ["2017-12-16", 0.6], ["2017-12-16", 0.6], ["2017-12-16", 0.6], ["2017-12-17", 0.605], ["2017-12-18", 0.605], ["2017-12-19", 0.6], ["2017-12-20", 0.6], ["2017-12-21", 0.6], ["2017-12-22", 0.61], ["2017-12-24", 0.605], ["2017-12-24", 0.62], ["2017-12-25", 0.615], ["2017-12-26", 0.635], ["2017-12-27", 0.65], ["2017-12-27", 0.65], ["2017-12-28", 0.65], ["2017-12-29", 0.65], ["2017-12-30", 0.65], ["2017-12-31", 0.65], ["2017-12-31", 0.65], ["2017-12-31", 0.65], ["2017-12-31", 0.655], ["2017-12-31", 0.655], ["2017-12-31", 0.66], ["2017-12-31", 0.655], ["2017-12-31", 0.65], ["2018-01-01", 0.65], ["2018-01-02", 0.655], ["2018-01-02", 0.66], ["2018-01-03", 0.675], ["2018-01-04", 0.675], ["2018-01-04", 0.695], ["2018-01-05", 0.66], ["2018-01-05", 0.65], ["2018-01-05", 0.655], ["2018-01-05", 0.675], ["2018-01-06", 0.66], ["2018-01-06", 0.655], ["2018-01-06", 0.66], ["2018-01-07", 0.66], ["2018-01-07", 0.675], ["2018-01-07", 0.675], ["2018-01-07", 0.7], ["2018-01-07", 0.675], ["2018-01-08", 0.66], ["2018-01-08", 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0.55], ["2018-03-12", 0.55], ["2018-03-12", 0.52], ["2018-03-14", 0.52], ["2018-03-15", 0.52], ["2018-03-17", 0.515], ["2018-03-17", 0.535], ["2018-03-19", 0.55], ["2018-03-22", 0.52], ["2018-03-25", 0.52], ["2018-03-27", 0.55], ["2018-03-29", 0.535], ["2018-04-01", 0.55], ["2018-04-01", 0.55], ["2018-04-03", 0.55], ["2018-04-05", 0.55], ["2018-04-05", 0.55], ["2018-04-06", 0.55], ["2018-04-07", 0.55], ["2018-04-09", 0.55], ["2018-04-10", 0.55], ["2018-04-15", 0.55], ["2018-04-16", 0.55], ["2018-04-19", 0.55], ["2018-04-21", 0.55], ["2018-04-23", 0.55], ["2018-04-26", 0.55], ["2018-04-27", 0.55], ["2018-04-30", 0.55], ["2018-05-01", 0.55], ["2018-05-02", 0.55], ["2018-05-05", 0.55], ["2018-05-10", 0.55], ["2018-05-12", 0.55], ["2018-05-14", 0.55], ["2018-05-14", 0.55], ["2018-05-15", 0.55], ["2018-05-15", 0.55], ["2018-05-16", 0.55], ["2018-05-16", 0.55], ["2018-05-19", 0.55], ["2018-05-22", 0.55], ["2018-05-23", 0.55], ["2018-05-24", 0.55], ["2018-05-26", 0.55], ["2018-05-27", 0.55], ["2018-05-27", 0.55], ["2018-05-27", 0.55], ["2018-05-28", 0.55], ["2018-05-31", 0.55], ["2018-06-01", 0.55], ["2018-06-02", 0.55], ["2018-06-04", 0.55], ["2018-06-04", 0.55], ["2018-06-04", 0.55], ["2018-06-04", 0.55], ["2018-06-04", 0.55], ["2018-06-04", 0.55], ["2018-06-04", 0.55], ["2018-06-04", 0.55]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/681 | True |
2018-10-01 | Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh? | binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">The EWP</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2018 and will be resolved in July 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Bangladesh from July 2018 to June 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this. | 2019-12-09 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2018-06-27 | 0.0 | [["2018-06-27", 0.07], ["2018-06-27", 0.0], ["2018-06-27", 0.01], ["2018-06-27", 0.015], ["2018-06-27", 0.045], ["2018-06-27", 0.045], ["2018-06-27", 0.08], ["2018-06-28", 0.08], ["2018-06-28", 0.055], ["2018-06-28", 0.015], ["2018-06-29", 0.005], ["2018-06-29", 0.005], ["2018-06-30", 0.01], ["2018-07-01", 0.02], ["2018-07-02", 0.02], ["2018-07-02", 0.01], ["2018-07-03", 0.015], ["2018-07-03", 0.01], ["2018-07-03", 0.01], ["2018-07-03", 0.01], ["2018-07-06", 0.015], ["2018-07-06", 0.015], ["2018-07-09", 0.02], ["2018-07-12", 0.015], ["2018-07-13", 0.015], ["2018-07-15", 0.015], ["2018-07-15", 0.02], ["2018-07-16", 0.02], ["2018-07-16", 0.025], ["2018-07-17", 0.025], ["2018-07-18", 0.025], ["2018-07-19", 0.025], ["2018-07-20", 0.025], ["2018-07-22", 0.02], ["2018-07-23", 0.02], ["2018-07-24", 0.02], ["2018-07-24", 0.03], ["2018-07-25", 0.035], ["2018-07-25", 0.045], ["2018-07-26", 0.045], ["2018-07-27", 0.05], ["2018-07-29", 0.05], ["2018-07-29", 0.05], ["2018-07-29", 0.05], ["2018-07-30", 0.05], ["2018-07-30", 0.05], ["2018-08-01", 0.05], ["2018-08-02", 0.05], ["2018-08-05", 0.05], ["2018-08-05", 0.05], ["2018-08-06", 0.05], ["2018-08-09", 0.05], ["2018-08-10", 0.065], ["2018-08-12", 0.065], ["2018-08-12", 0.065], ["2018-08-13", 0.065], ["2018-08-14", 0.05], ["2018-08-15", 0.05], ["2018-08-16", 0.05], ["2018-08-18", 0.05], ["2018-08-21", 0.05], ["2018-08-22", 0.05], ["2018-08-23", 0.055], ["2018-08-23", 0.055], ["2018-08-27", 0.055], ["2018-08-29", 0.06], ["2018-09-03", 0.045], ["2018-09-05", 0.035], ["2018-09-05", 0.035], ["2018-09-06", 0.035], ["2018-09-11", 0.035], ["2018-09-12", 0.035], ["2018-09-12", 0.035], ["2018-09-13", 0.035], ["2018-09-13", 0.035], ["2018-09-18", 0.035], ["2018-09-20", 0.035], ["2018-09-20", 0.035], ["2018-09-21", 0.03], ["2018-09-22", 0.03], ["2018-09-22", 0.03], ["2018-09-24", 0.03], ["2018-09-25", 0.03], ["2018-09-26", 0.03], ["2018-09-28", 0.03], ["2018-09-28", 0.03], ["2018-09-29", 0.02], ["2018-10-01", 0.02]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/973 | True |
2016-03-24 | Will the US or the UN impose any new sanctions on Iran before 18 October 2016? | binary | In January 2016, the U.S. imposed new sanctions in response to Iran's October ballistic missile test (<a href = "https://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/jl0322.aspx" target = "_blank">Treasury Department</a>, <a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/18/world/middleeast/three-freed-americans-depart-iran-one-remains-us-officials-say.html" target = "_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-35338901" target = "_blank">BBC</a>). Many sanctions against Iran have been lifted as part of the nuclear deal, but other US sanctions on non-nuclear issues have remained in place (See page 3 of <a href = "https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/Programs/Documents/jcpoa_faqs.pdf" target = "_blank">JCPOA FAQ</a>). 18 October 2016 is the one year anniversary of "Adoption Day" for the nuclear deal.
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<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/139-opinion-do-you-approve-or-disapprove-of-the-iranian-nuclear-deal" target = "_blank">(Opinion) Do you approve or disapprove of the Iranian nuclear deal?</a> | 2016-03-28 | gjopen | ["http://www.foreign.senate.gov/press/chair/release/corker-iran-testing-will-of-us-and-international-community-after-second-straight-day-of-ballistic-missile-launches", "http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/03/government-just-charged-iranian-hackers-major-cyberattacks-us", "http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/24/us-treasury-new-sanctions-iran-ballistic-missile-test", "http://www.eveningtribune.com/article/20160316/NEWS/160319796", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-missiles-un-idUSKCN0WG1NG", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/22/us/politics/hillary-clinton-and-donald-trump-vow-to-protect-israel-but-differ-on-means.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/178467", "https://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/jl0395.aspx", "http://thehill.com/policy/cybersecurity/272959-white-house-set-to-send-iran-cyber-message", "https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/OFAC-Enforcement/Pages/20160324.aspx", "http://www.thetower.org/3113oc-bipartisan-efforts-to-sanction-iran-for-ballistic-missile-tests-underway-in-congress/", "http://m.jpost.com/Opinion/Will-Senate-Democrats-take-violations-of-the-Iran-deal-seriously-448855#article=6017RjM0Q0VGOUMzOUU4OTBEQTNDNjM5M0E2REEwRDAyM0Y=", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-u-s-senate-takes-on-iran-1458605304", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/186450?is_child=true", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/25/gitrep-24mar16pm/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/18/gitrep-17mar16pm/", "http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/03/senate-hardline-iran-sanctions-republicans-bills.html", "http://www.thetower.org/3127-wsj-editorial-senate-sanctions-bills-are-good-start-to-countering-iranian-missile-program/", "http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/03/16/washington-made-it-easy-for-iran-to-fire-its-ballistic-missiles/", "http://www.scmagazine.com/update-schumer-confirms-expected-indictment-of-iranian-hackers-for-ny-dam-breach/article/483351/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-australia-iran-trade-idUSKCN0WH066", "http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2016/03/17/456331/GOP-senators-sanctions-Iran", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/21/gitrep-20mar16pm/", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-sanctions-iranian-defense-firms-revolutionary-guard-units-for-missile-tests-1458837204", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-missiles-usa-idUSKCN0WQ1NE"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-02-09 | 1.0 | [["2016-02-09", 0.15], ["2016-02-09", 0.3], ["2016-02-09", 0.05], ["2016-02-09", 0.05], ["2016-02-09", 0.045], ["2016-02-09", 0.12], ["2016-02-09", 0.19], ["2016-02-09", 0.175], ["2016-02-09", 0.275], ["2016-02-09", 0.2], ["2016-02-09", 0.2], ["2016-02-09", 0.2], ["2016-02-09", 0.2], 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2018-08-28 | Will Joe Arpaio win the Republican Party nomination for the Arizona U.S. Senate seat currently held by Jeff Flake? | binary | Former Sheriff Joe Arpaio has announced that he is running in Arizona for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by retiring Republican Senator Jeff Flake (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/09/us/joe-arpaio-senate-arizona.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-politics-arpaio/ex-arizona-sheriff-arpaio-running-for-senate-idUSKBN1EY1Z3"target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/08/26/why-trumps-pardon-of-joe-arpaio-isnt-like-most-presidential-pardons/"target="_blank">The Washington Post</a>). The primary election is scheduled to take place on 28 August 2018 (<a href = "https://www.azsos.gov/elections/elections-calendar-upcoming-events"target="_blank">Arizona Secretary of State</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as "no" with an end date of 28 August 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. | 2018-09-04 | gjopen | ["https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/02/02/joe-arpaio-senate-campaign-2018-profile-216922", "https://www.predictit.org/Browse/Group/82/Congressional-Primaries", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2018/02/01/joe-arpaio-pleads-ignorance-after-recent-interview-with-anti-semitic-weekly-it-was-his-fifth/", "https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Arizona_(August_28,_2018_Republican_primary", "http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2017/12/11/should-conservatives-vote-for-roy-moore.html", "http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/12/12/establishment-republicans-cheer-roy-moores-loss-in-alabama/", "https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/laurieroberts/2018/01/16/poll-shows-mcsally-frontrunner-arizona-senate-race-but-can-she-snag-donald-trumps-endorsemen/1036669001/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Senators_from_Arizona", "https://ballotpedia.org/History_of_Initiative_%26_Referendum_in_Arizona", "https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/", "http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/sheriff-joe-arpaio-details-plan-dreamers-deport/story?id=52640992", "http://www.kvoa.com/story/37300118/mcsally-leads-gop-senate-race-arpaio-hurting-ward-new-poll-shows", "https://www.cnn.com/2017/08/22/politics/kelli-ward-arizona-senate-race/index.html"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2018-01-24 | 0.0 | [["2018-01-24", 0.25], ["2018-01-24", 0.175], ["2018-01-24", 0.25], ["2018-01-24", 0.4], ["2018-01-24", 0.225], ["2018-01-24", 0.2], ["2018-01-25", 0.06], ["2018-01-25", 0.02], ["2018-01-25", 0.04], ["2018-01-25", 0.04], ["2018-01-25", 0.075], 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2018-01-01 | Before 1 January 2018, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used? | binary | In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Justices of the Supreme Court by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority (<a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y"target="_blank">Reuters</a>). The removal of the filibuster to block legislation may be next (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/05/us/politics/filibuster-gorsuch-nomination-republicans.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>).
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<hr>
The U.S. Senate did not expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
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<hr>
| 2018-01-16 | gjopen | ["https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nuking-the-filibuster-may-hurt-republicans-in-the-long-run/", "http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/economy-budget/332058-senators-on-both-sides-are-friends-of-the-filibuster", "http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/05/trump-lobbies-on-twitter-to-eliminate-legislative-filibuster.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/14/us/politics/trump-republican-senators.html?emc=edit_th_20170515&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=77825025", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/13/politics/kevin-mccarthy-filibuster-plan/index.html", "https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/5/2/15515216/republicans-health-bill-rush", "http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/mitch-mcconnell-promises-not-to-kill-filibuster-236873", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/gops-proposed-tax-changes-are-no-match-for-status-quo-1496055605", "http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/economy-budget/339451-funeral-for-the-filibuster-gop-may-lay-senate-tool-to-rest", "http://ct.fra.bz/il/fz/se/i56/5/4/18/f_92188a1d2c.jpg", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMQkV5cTuoY", "http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/06/the-right-to-life-lobby-is-not-in-a-mood-for-compromise.html", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/06/19/senate-leaders-plan-to-rush-a-health-care-bill-to-a-vote-and-theres-nothing-democrats-can-do-about-it/?utm_term=.482c86052d41", "http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/gop-senators-parliamentarian-says-anti-abortion-language-in-healthcare-bill-violates-senate-rules/article/2626669#", "http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/16/obamacare-cruz-paul-repeal-238411", "http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/10/steve-bannons-dubious-plan-to-purge-senate-republicans.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/12/us/politics/trump-tax-code-republicans-votes.html?emc=edit_th_20170913&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=77825025", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/randalllane/2017/10/10/trump-unfiltered/#f2112017a58f", "http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-30/trump-calls-senate-nuclear-option-avoid-shutdown-claims-dems-would-do-it", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/04/opinion/too-many-donald-trumps.html?emc=edit_th_20170504&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=77825025", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ienp4J3pW7U", "https://www.conservativereview.com/articles/how-fixing-the-filibuster-could-save-countless-unborn-lives", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/593574", "https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-06-18/sanders-signals-backing-of-senate-slowdown-over-health-care-bill", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/05/us/politics/filibuster-gorsuch-nomination-republicans.html?_r=1"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-04-28 | 0.0 | [["2017-04-28", 0.35], ["2017-04-29", 0.54], ["2017-04-29", 0.4], ["2017-04-29", 0.61], ["2017-04-29", 0.63], ["2017-04-30", 0.655], ["2017-04-30", 0.58], ["2017-04-30", 0.65], ["2017-04-30", 0.65], ["2017-04-30", 0.6], ["2017-04-30", 0.5], ["2017-05-01", 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2016-12-31 | Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Mali before 1 January 2017? | binary | For more information on what constitutes an episode of mass killing, see the <a href="http://www.earlywarningproject.com/definitions" target="_blank">Early Warning Project’s Definitions page</a>. The Early Warning Project’s 2015 statistical risk assessments identified Mali as the 13th country at the greatest risk of an onset of a new episode of state-led mass killing (<a href="http://www.earlywarningproject.com/countries/mali" target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). Those forecasts do not include the risk of mass killing by non-state groups, which would also produce a “yes” answer to this question. This question will be resolved by the Early Warning Project, in consultation with subject matter experts, using publicly available secondary sources. If the project determines that a new episode of mass killing has occurred, relevant evidence will be summarized in a post on <a href="http://www.earlywarningproject.com/posts" target="_blank">EWP's blog</a>.
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This question was closed as a "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. The EWP did not find evidence of a new mass killing episode in Mali before the end of 2016 (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/2017/03/29/state-of-the-world-mass-killing-in-2016"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | 2017-03-30 | gjopen | ["http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/west-africa/mali/238-central-mali-an-uprising-in-the-making.aspx", "http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/crisiswatch/crisiswatch-database.aspx?CountryIDs=%7b00784553-1A92-4A05-8825-9235786CF9BC%7d&StartDate=20150715&EndDate=20160716", "http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/afp/article-3619542/Chinese-peacekeeper-3-civilians-killed-Mali.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Mali_conflict", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/07/mali-20-dead-fighting-threatens-peace-deal-160722210119514.html", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/07/armed-groups-kill-17-soldiers-mali-base-160720023710103.html", "http://in.reuters.com/article/mali-violence-aid-idINKCN1002HF", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/285582", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/06/mali-crisis-peacekeepers-killed-gao-attacks-160601043032404.html", "http://www.the-monitor.org/en-gb/reports/2016/mali/casualties-and-victim-assistance.aspx", "http://allafrica.com/stories/201608010566.html"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-07-19 | 0.0 | [["2016-07-19", 0.25], ["2016-07-19", 0.12], ["2016-07-19", 0.06], ["2016-07-19", 0.075], ["2016-07-19", 0.075], ["2016-07-19", 0.0], ["2016-07-19", 0.0], ["2016-07-19", 0.0], ["2016-07-20", 0.0], ["2016-07-20", 0.025], ["2016-07-20", 0.02], ["2016-07-20", 0.02], ["2016-07-20", 0.05], ["2016-07-20", 0.08], ["2016-07-20", 0.08], ["2016-07-20", 0.06], ["2016-07-20", 0.04], ["2016-07-20", 0.08], ["2016-07-20", 0.04], ["2016-07-20", 0.03], ["2016-07-21", 0.035], ["2016-07-21", 0.035], ["2016-07-21", 0.045], ["2016-07-21", 0.04], ["2016-07-21", 0.05], ["2016-07-21", 0.05], ["2016-07-21", 0.05], ["2016-07-21", 0.05], ["2016-07-21", 0.05], ["2016-07-21", 0.05], ["2016-07-22", 0.05], ["2016-07-22", 0.075], ["2016-07-22", 0.125], ["2016-07-22", 0.125], ["2016-07-22", 0.125], ["2016-07-23", 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2018-10-01 | Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe? | binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">The EWP</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2018 and will be resolved in July 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Zimbabwe from July 2018 to June 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this. | 2019-12-09 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2018-06-27 | 0.0 | [["2018-06-27", 0.06], ["2018-06-27", 0.1], ["2018-06-27", 0.06], ["2018-06-27", 0.035], ["2018-06-27", 0.025], ["2018-06-27", 0.01], ["2018-06-27", 0.05], ["2018-06-27", 0.99], ["2018-06-28", 0.495], ["2018-06-28", 0.5], ["2018-06-28", 0.03], ["2018-06-28", 0.03], ["2018-06-29", 0.03], ["2018-06-29", 0.05], ["2018-06-29", 0.05], ["2018-06-30", 0.05], ["2018-07-01", 0.05], ["2018-07-02", 0.035], ["2018-07-02", 0.035], ["2018-07-02", 0.02], ["2018-07-03", 0.02], ["2018-07-03", 0.02], ["2018-07-03", 0.015], ["2018-07-03", 0.015], ["2018-07-06", 0.015], ["2018-07-06", 0.015], ["2018-07-09", 0.015], ["2018-07-12", 0.015], ["2018-07-13", 0.02], ["2018-07-15", 0.02], ["2018-07-15", 0.02], ["2018-07-16", 0.02], ["2018-07-16", 0.02], ["2018-07-17", 0.02], ["2018-07-18", 0.02], ["2018-07-19", 0.02], ["2018-07-20", 0.01], ["2018-07-23", 0.01], ["2018-07-23", 0.02], ["2018-07-24", 0.015], ["2018-07-27", 0.015], ["2018-07-29", 0.015], ["2018-07-29", 0.015], ["2018-07-30", 0.035], ["2018-07-30", 0.035], ["2018-08-02", 0.035], ["2018-08-02", 0.04], ["2018-08-05", 0.04], ["2018-08-09", 0.04], ["2018-08-09", 0.03], ["2018-08-10", 0.03], ["2018-08-12", 0.015], ["2018-08-12", 0.015], ["2018-08-13", 0.015], ["2018-08-14", 0.01], ["2018-08-16", 0.01], ["2018-08-18", 0.01], ["2018-08-18", 0.01], ["2018-08-21", 0.01], ["2018-08-22", 0.01], ["2018-08-22", 0.01], ["2018-08-22", 0.01], ["2018-08-23", 0.01], ["2018-08-27", 0.01], ["2018-08-29", 0.01], ["2018-09-01", 0.015], ["2018-09-02", 0.015], ["2018-09-03", 0.01], ["2018-09-06", 0.01], ["2018-09-11", 0.01], ["2018-09-12", 0.01], ["2018-09-13", 0.01], ["2018-09-13", 0.01], ["2018-09-15", 0.01], ["2018-09-16", 0.0], ["2018-09-18", 0.0], ["2018-09-20", 0.0], ["2018-09-20", 0.005], ["2018-09-22", 0.005], ["2018-09-22", 0.005], ["2018-09-24", 0.005], ["2018-09-26", 0.005], ["2018-09-28", 0.005], ["2018-09-29", 0.005], ["2018-09-29", 0.0], ["2018-10-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/972 | True |
2019-01-01 | Will the World Health Organization or the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention declare an influenza pandemic before 2019? | binary | There are concerns about a pandemic caused by the spread of avian flu (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/25/health/bird-flu-china.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>). Both the CDC (<a href = "https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/monitoring/current-situation.html"target="_blank">CDC</a>, <a href = "https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/monitoring/viruses-concern.html"target="_blank">CDC</a>) and the WHO (<a href = "http://www.who.int/influenza/en/"target="_blank">WHO</a>) actively monitor influenza viruses and manage pandemic declaration.
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<hr>
This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2019.
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| 2019-01-02 | gjopen | ["https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19508439", "https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/monitoring/irat-virus-summaries.htm", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_pandemic#Phases", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/08/health/next-flu-pandemic.html", "http://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/89/7/11-086173/en/", "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22723413", "https://www.healthline.com/health-news/us-could-face-devastating-flu-season#3", "https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/rohingya-muslims-burma-myanmar-aung-san-suu-kyi-legitimising-genocide-a7439151.html", "https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-asks-help-fight-h1n1-virus.html", "https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/10/h7n9-flu-pandemic/543318/", "http://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005749", "https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://fortune.com/2018/01/08/2018-flu-season-what-you-need-to-know/&ved=0ahUKEwih0MKJjcvYAhVjZN8KHS_aANcQqOcBCCAwAQ&usg=AOvVaw2Wi1IaDiBJaJD4EhiiKYo0", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-birdflu-china-idUSKBN19X0CL", "https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://abcnews.go.com/amp/Health/years-flu-season-bad-flu-shot-effective/story%3Fid%3D52209578&ved=2ahUKEwih0MKJjcvYAhVjZN8KHS_aANcQFjAVegQIBBAB&usg=AOvVaw0jDAxA8dNOiSIV68P23kFO&ampcf=1", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/25/health/bird-flu-china.html", "http://www.upmc-cbn.org/report_archive/2009/2009-SW-H1N1-Issue-Briefs/2009-06-11-A_Closer_Look_at_WHO_Pandemic_Declaration.html", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/700970", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-h1n1/myanmar-tracks-spread-of-h1n1-as-outbreak-claims-sixth-victim-idUSKBN1AC1XZ", "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21313840", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/526845", 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2016-11-08 | Will Senator Pat Toomey (R-PA) be re-elected this November? | binary | This question was closed with the correct answer 'Yes' with an end date of 8 November 2016. Senator Pat Toomey (R - PA) won his bid for reelection on November 8. (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/senate" target="_blank">NY Times</a>)
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>
<hr>
Incumbent Senator Pat Toomey is facing Democratic challenger Katie McGinty in a race that, as of 7 August, shows McGinty leading by 2-3 points in the polls. Donald Trump lags behind Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania by several percentage points, leading to worries that Trump may hurt Toomey's chances down-ballot despite Toomey's efforts to distance himself from the presidential candidate (<a href="http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20160811_Toomey_presses_immigrant_issue__keeps_distance_from_Trump.html" target="_blank">The Inquirer Daily News</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/08/05/saving-the-senate-majority-republican-senators-look-to-create-distance-from-trump/" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>, <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/pa/pennsylvania_senate_toomey_vs_mcginty-5074.html" target="_blank">Real Clear Politics</a>, <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/will-trump-sink-republicans-senate-races-n622991" target="_blank">NBC News</a>).
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| 2016-11-17 | gjopen | ["http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/pennsylvania/", "http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/poll-pennsylvania-senate-race-virtually-tied-katie-mcginty-pat-toomey", "http://talkingpointsmemo.com/election/2016/us-senate", "https://www.opensecrets.org/overview/reelect.php", "http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_PA_083016/", "http://www.electionprojection.com/senate-elections.php", "http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/pa/pennsylvania_senate_toomey_vs_mcginty-5074.html", "https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?cycle=2016&id=PAS1", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=6IQZ", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/314398", "http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/senate-election-forecast.html?_r=0#other-forecasts", "https://ballotpedia.org/Voting_in_Pennsylvania", "http://www.fec.gov/fecviewer/CandidateCommitteeDetail.do", "http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_865ec63b1c494be78da4af7d7834766c.pdf", "http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-congress-senate", "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question6", "http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/gabby-giffords-pac-endorses-pat-toomey-mark-kirk-227268#ixzz4IBcjmpK2", "http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/capitolinq/Q-Poll-Pat-Toomey-leads-Katie-McGinty-by-8-in-PA-Senate-race.html", "http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/", "http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/senate-polls.html?_r=0", "http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/pa/pennsylvania_senate_toomey_vs_sestak-3928.html", "http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/senate-polls.html?_r=1", "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question7", "http://billypenn.com/2016/10/17/is-pat-toomey-winning-or-losing-despite-all-the-polls-nobody-really-knows/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Pennsylvania,_2016"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 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2016-07-01 | Will Syrian government forces retake the city of Aleppo before 1 July 2016? | binary | This question resolved on 30 June 2016: Forces continue to close in on Aleppo but as yet have not taken control (<a href="http://news.sky.com/story/1718716/syrian-government-forces-close-in-on-aleppo" target="_blank">Sky News</a>, <a href="http://www.dw.com/en/russian-airstrikes-hit-rebel-held-aleppo-as-battle-rages/a-19357527" target="_blank">DW</a>)
Government forces backed by Russian airpower are closing in on the city of Aleppo (<a href = "http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/02/syria-aleppo-assad-russia/462231/" target = "_blank">Atlantic</a>, <a href = "http://www.huffingtonpost.com/joseph-v-micallef/the-battle-for-aleppo-syr_b_9234146.html" target = "_blank">Huffington Post</a>, <a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/a-mini-world-war-rages-in-the-fields-of-aleppo/2016/02/14/d2dfff02-d340-11e5-a65b-587e721fb231_story.html" target = "_blank">Washington Post</a>, <a href = "http://www.theworldin.com/article/10450/next-moves-syria" target = "_blank">The World in 2016</a>).
** This question involves military operations. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#resolution11" target = "_blank">here</a> for GJ's FAQ on the fuzzy nature of these questions.
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"http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-aleppo-ceasefire-idUSKCN0Z20F5", "https://www.rt.com/news/339244-syria-aleppo-blocked-militaints/", "http://www.militarytimes.com/story/military/war-on-is/2016/05/26/green-berets-syria-kurdish-ypg-insignia/84987596/", "http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2016/06/al-nusrah-front-and-allies-launch-new-offensive-in-syrias-aleppo-province.php", "http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/06/syria-aleppo-regime-army-assad-support-isis-marea-tlalin.html#ixzz4CiVmSnzZ", "https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2016/20-june-russian-jets-flying-over-aleppo", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-36202438", "http://armamentresearch.com/us-remington-xm2010-sniper-rifle-in-syria/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-aleppo-idUSKCN0Z406V", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/26/us-military-photos-syria-soldiers-fighting-isis", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-aleppo-commentary-idUSKCN0XW25N", "https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/iraq-syria-battlespace-0", "http://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2016/28-june-saa--allies-advancements-on-the-al-malla-farms-in", "http://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2016/06/21/Hezbollah-s-hot-summer-between-Aleppo-s-battle-and-banking-wars-.html", "http://news.sky.com/story/1718716/syrian-government-forces-close-in-on-aleppo", "https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2016/20-june-more-footage-of-the-aftermath-of-incendiary-munition", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/06/air-strikes-kill-dozens-syria-aleppo-160605111131963.html"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-03-01 | 0.0 | [["2016-03-01", 0.625], ["2016-03-01", 0.475], ["2016-03-01", 0.55], ["2016-03-01", 0.525], ["2016-03-01", 0.675], ["2016-03-02", 0.705], ["2016-03-02", 0.7], ["2016-03-02", 0.73], ["2016-03-02", 0.75], ["2016-03-02", 0.75], ["2016-03-02", 0.75], ["2016-03-02", 0.75], ["2016-03-02", 0.725], ["2016-03-02", 0.68], ["2016-03-02", 0.685], ["2016-03-03", 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2017-11-30 | Will North Korea execute and/or sponsor a low or higher level cyber attack against networks owned by a US entity between 19 September 2017 and 30 November 2017? | binary | At least part of the attack must occur during the question's open period. The question will be suspended on 30 November 2017 and resolved on 31 January 2018 to allow for delayed reporting. The following levels of cyber attack will all count: Low-Level Cyber Attacks create temporary and/or localized disruption of services that are dependent on networked infrastructure but do not threaten the core functionality of critical infrastructure targets. For example, a series of distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks against banking websites-while widespread-would cause only temporary disruption of Internet access to customer's bank accounts. They would not affect customer account balances or other banking services such as ATM withdrawals, nor would they disrupt the larger financial system, although the affected banks would incur losses because of the mitigation and other costs. Moderate-Level Cyber Attacks create localized, nonpersistent disruption to core functionality of critical services and functions but do not generate substantive systemic or national-level effects. For example, a cyber-attack that disrupted a single power plant for a couple of hours-equivalent to a temporary local power outage from a snow storm-would qualify as a moderate-level cyber attack. High-Level Cyber Attacks disrupt critical infrastructure services and generate substantive systemic or national-level effects over an extended period of time. For example, a cyber attack that reduced oil pipeline transport across a key region and resulted in a spike in national oil prices over the course of a month would qualify as a high-level cyber attack. Catastrophic Cyber Attacks affect the fundamental viability of core government, military, or economic services or functions; or cause significant loss of life or widespread property damage. For example, a cyber attack against critical infrastructures that caused an economic depression would qualify as a catastrophic cyber attack. A US entity can be governmental, commercial, academic, nonprofit or an individual. For the question to resolve as 'yes', the government of North Korea must sponsor or execute the attack. Outcome will be determined by credible open source cybersecurity industry analysis or media reporting (e.g., Crowstrike, FireEye, ThreatConnect, Symantec, McAfee, Reuters, BBC, AP).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 30 November 2017.
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<hr>
| 2018-03-16 | gjopen | ["https://www.iafrikan.com/2017/11/06/iox-cable-ltd-to-provide-first-subsea-route-between-u-s-and-india-via-brazil-and-south-africa/", "http://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/nato-to-boost-use-of-cyber-weaponry-to-combat-russia", "https://securingtomorrow.mcafee.com/mcafee-labs/android-malware-appears-linked-to-lazarus-cybercrime-group/", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-cyber-northkorea/u-s-blames-north-korea-for-wannacry-cyber-attack-idUSKBN1ED00Q", "https://www.us-cert.gov/ncas/alerts/TA17-318B", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/thomasbrewster/2016/10/23/massive-ddos-iot-botnet-for-hire-twitter-dyn-amazon/", "https://kotaku.com/russian-military-uses-video-game-screenshot-to-allege-u-1820448382", "https://jsis.washington.edu/news/cybersecurity-implications-chinese-undersea-cable-investment/", "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/science/china-launches-1st-high-throughput-communications-satellite/articleshow/58149841.cms", "https://www.us-cert.gov/ncas/alerts/TA17-164A", "https://www.us-cert.gov/ncas/alerts/TA17-318A", "https://www.theverge.com/2013/9/15/4732930/nsa-information-dominance-center-redesigned-as-starship-enterprise", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/608-will-north-korea-execute-and-or-sponsor-a-low-or-higher-level-cyber-attack-against-networks-owned-by-a-us-entity-between-19-september-2017-and-30-november-2017/www.38north.org", "http://www.caida.org/projects/cybersecurity/geolocation/bib/", "https://www.fireeye.com/cyber-map/threat-map.html", "http://www.38north.org/", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-cyber-hackers/multi-stage-cyber-attacks-net-north-korea-millions-in-virtual-currencies-researchers-idUSKBN1ED0ZC", "http://www.futuresmag.com/2016/01/15/it%E2%80%99s-not-just-what-you-forecast-it%E2%80%99s-how-you-forecast", "https://arxiv.org/pdf/1605.07685.pdf", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/12/us/nsa-shadow-brokers.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&amp", "https://globalnews.ca/news/3867267/north-korea-hackers-money-espionage-kim-jong-un/", "https://wtop.com/j-j-green-national/2017/10/terrorism-cyber-intrusions-worry-key-justice-department-official/", "https://www.symantec.com/blogs/threat-intelligence/petya-ransomware-wiper", "https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/isros-gsat-19-11-satellites-a-revolution-in-communications/articleshow/58983052.cms", "https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2017/11/10/cyber_crime_north_koreas_billion-dollar_soft_spot_112614.html"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-09-19 | 0.0 | [["2017-09-19", 0.99], ["2017-09-19", 0.275], ["2017-09-19", 0.05], ["2017-09-20", 0.9], ["2017-09-20", 0.725], ["2017-09-20", 0.33], ["2017-09-21", 0.01], ["2017-09-21", 0.675], ["2017-09-21", 0.75], ["2017-09-21", 0.8], ["2017-09-21", 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2018-10-01 | Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan? | binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">The EWP</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2018 and will be resolved in July 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Sudan from July 2018 to June 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this. | 2019-12-09 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2018-06-27 | 0.0 | [["2018-06-27", 0.4], ["2018-06-27", 0.6], ["2018-06-27", 0.635], ["2018-06-27", 0.485], ["2018-06-27", 0.385], ["2018-06-27", 0.09], ["2018-06-27", 0.1], ["2018-06-27", 0.08], ["2018-06-27", 0.19], ["2018-06-27", 0.315], ["2018-06-28", 0.165], ["2018-06-28", 0.315], ["2018-06-28", 0.275], ["2018-06-28", 0.3], ["2018-06-28", 0.3], ["2018-06-28", 0.25], ["2018-06-29", 0.03], ["2018-06-29", 0.04], ["2018-06-29", 0.04], ["2018-07-01", 0.04], ["2018-07-02", 0.04], ["2018-07-02", 0.025], ["2018-07-03", 0.02], ["2018-07-03", 0.02], ["2018-07-03", 0.02], ["2018-07-03", 0.02], ["2018-07-03", 0.02], ["2018-07-04", 0.025], ["2018-07-06", 0.03], ["2018-07-06", 0.03], ["2018-07-09", 0.02], ["2018-07-12", 0.02], ["2018-07-14", 0.02], ["2018-07-15", 0.02], ["2018-07-16", 0.05], ["2018-07-18", 0.05], ["2018-07-19", 0.05], ["2018-07-23", 0.05], ["2018-07-23", 0.05], ["2018-07-24", 0.055], ["2018-07-24", 0.055], ["2018-07-24", 0.055], ["2018-07-27", 0.105], ["2018-07-29", 0.105], ["2018-07-30", 0.105], ["2018-07-30", 0.11], ["2018-08-03", 0.115], ["2018-08-05", 0.115], ["2018-08-06", 0.115], ["2018-08-09", 0.08], ["2018-08-13", 0.08], ["2018-08-13", 0.07], ["2018-08-16", 0.07], ["2018-08-18", 0.07], ["2018-08-22", 0.07], ["2018-08-23", 0.11], ["2018-08-23", 0.115], ["2018-08-27", 0.115], ["2018-08-30", 0.125], ["2018-09-03", 0.13], ["2018-09-03", 0.065], ["2018-09-06", 0.065], ["2018-09-11", 0.065], ["2018-09-13", 0.065], ["2018-09-13", 0.015], ["2018-09-18", 0.015], ["2018-09-20", 0.015], ["2018-09-22", 0.02], ["2018-09-23", 0.02], ["2018-09-24", 0.02], ["2018-09-25", 0.02], ["2018-09-28", 0.02], ["2018-09-29", 0.015], ["2018-09-30", 0.015], ["2018-10-01", 0.015]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/984 | True |
2017-07-01 | Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar? | binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Myanmar from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ Open</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on other questions in this challenge: <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/16-early-warning-project-2017-2018"target = "_blank">Early Warning Project 2017 - 2018</a></sub>
This question was closed as Yes (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/ewp"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| 2019-12-04 | gjopen | ["http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/05/myanmar-arrests-buddhists-accused-targeting-muslims-170512220527691.html", "http://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/myanmar-rohingya-crisis2/", "http://www.atimes.com/article/myanmars-peace-process-descends-farce/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/25/opinion/a-cruel-april-in-kashmir.html?_r=0", "http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/2017-by-elections-in-myanmar-warning-signal-for-suu-kyi_skundu_050417"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-03-31 | 1.0 | [["2017-03-31", 0.15], ["2017-03-31", 0.1], ["2017-03-31", 0.15], ["2017-03-31", 0.6], ["2017-03-31", 0.575], ["2017-03-31", 0.15], ["2017-03-31", 0.15], ["2017-03-31", 0.15], ["2017-04-01", 0.15], ["2017-04-01", 0.1], ["2017-04-01", 0.4], ["2017-04-01", 0.05], ["2017-04-01", 0.05], ["2017-04-01", 0.05], ["2017-04-01", 0.1], ["2017-04-01", 0.125], ["2017-04-01", 0.08], ["2017-04-02", 0.1], ["2017-04-02", 0.1], ["2017-04-02", 0.125], ["2017-04-02", 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["2017-06-29", 0.045], ["2017-06-29", 0.03], ["2017-06-29", 0.03], ["2017-06-29", 0.03], ["2017-06-29", 0.03], ["2017-06-29", 0.03], ["2017-06-30", 0.03], ["2017-06-30", 0.03], ["2017-06-30", 0.04], ["2017-07-01", 0.04], ["2017-07-01", 0.04], ["2017-07-01", 0.04]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/447 | True |
2020-01-01 | Before 1 January 2020, will the U.S. President sign legislation increasing the number of exemptions for autonomous vehicles allowed per manufacturer by the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards? | binary | A motor vehicle manufacturer may petition the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration for an exemption for self-driving vehicles without human controls (<a href="http://energyfuse.org/autonomous-vehicle-exemptions-explained/" target="_blank">The Fuse</a>, <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/49/30113" target="_blank">Cornell Law</a>). There is legislation under consideration that would increase the number of exemptions U.S. regulators are able to grant per manufacturer (<a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885/text#toc-idc9abb155-cdba-4b71-b5f3-649081368d1d" target="_blank">S.1885 AV START Act</a>, <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388/text#toc-HCD72660E42D7483686F7272B3397542B" target="_blank">H.R.3388 - SELF DRIVE Act</a>). Proponents say it would liberate innovation for self-driving vehicles while opponents say that it would place consumers under undue risk (<a href="https://www.consumerreports.org/autonomous-driving/safety-exemption-for-self-driving-cars-advances-in-congress/" target="_blank">Consumer Reports</a>, <a href="https://www.tomshardware.com/news/autonomous-vehicles-exempted-safety-regulations,35573.html" target="_blank">Tom's Hardware</a>, <a href="https://cei.org/blog/david-friedman-swings-and-misses-av-start-act" target="_blank">Competitive Enterprise Institute</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>. </p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>
| 2020-01-03 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2018-11-16 | 0.0 | [["2018-11-16", 1.0], ["2018-11-16", 0.625], ["2018-11-17", 0.78], ["2018-11-17", 0.68], ["2018-11-17", 0.58], ["2018-11-17", 0.64], ["2018-11-18", 0.7], ["2018-11-18", 0.7], ["2018-11-18", 0.74], ["2018-11-18", 0.78], ["2018-11-18", 0.765], ["2018-11-18", 0.765], ["2018-11-18", 0.725], ["2018-11-19", 0.7], ["2018-11-19", 0.725], ["2018-11-19", 0.725], ["2018-11-19", 0.725], ["2018-11-19", 0.725], ["2018-11-19", 0.725], ["2018-11-20", 0.65], ["2018-11-20", 0.65], ["2018-11-20", 0.605], ["2018-11-20", 0.655], ["2018-11-21", 0.605], ["2018-11-22", 0.605], ["2018-11-23", 0.605], ["2018-11-23", 0.605], ["2018-11-24", 0.68], ["2018-11-25", 0.715], ["2018-11-25", 0.64], ["2018-11-26", 0.59], ["2018-11-26", 0.59], ["2018-11-27", 0.59], ["2018-11-27", 0.59], ["2018-11-28", 0.665], ["2018-11-28", 0.665], ["2018-11-28", 0.575], ["2018-11-28", 0.575], ["2018-11-28", 0.575], ["2018-11-30", 0.575], 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2018-10-01 | Before 1 October 2018, will Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu resign, lose a vote of confidence, or call new elections? | binary | Prime Minister Netanyahu faces an array of challenges, including ongoing investigations (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/06/world/middleeast/benjamin-netanyahu-israel-corruption-case.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/31/world/middleeast/israel-rivlin-netanyahu-democracy.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/11/israel-germany-egypt-benjamin-netanyahu-yitzhak-molcho.html"target="_blank">Al-Monitor</a>, <a href = "https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/10/israel-benjamin-netanyahu-moshe-kahlon-coalition-immunity.html"target="_blank">Al-Monitor</a>, <a href = "http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Politics-And-Diplomacy/Netanyahu-asks-coalition-heads-for-political-calm-so-state-budget-can-pass-514048"target="_blank">The Jerusalem Post</a>, <a href = "https://www.timesofisrael.com/poll-shows-center-left-could-block-netanyahu-coalition-in-next-election/"target="_blank">Times of Israel</a>).
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<hr>
This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 October 2018.
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| 2018-10-03 | gjopen | ["http://jewishjournal.com/rosnersdomain/230810/is-bibi-in-trouble/", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/5-times-israeli-politicians-said-theres-nothing-to-it-and-ended-up-in-jail/", "https://www.ft.com/content/42ccd414-1879-11e8-9376-4a6390addb44", "http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Presumed-innocent-542675", "https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-this-time-netanyahu-can-t-hide-from-the-allegations-against-him-1.5821233", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/696924", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-israel-netanyahu-police-explainer/netanyahu-what-happens-next-idUSKCN1FX2WZ", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/02/israeli-pm-netanyahu-cling-power-longer-180225150049482.html", "http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Benjamin-Netanyahu/What-would-Netanyahus-Case-1000-trial-look-like-542690", "http://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/israeli-pms-choice-for-a-g-to-decide-on-filing-charges", "https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/israeli-protesters-urge-netanyahu-to-step-down-over-bribery-allegations/article38004720/", "https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/police-to-question-netanyahu-over-bezeq-submarine-cases-1.5846711", "https://www.10.tv/news/156046", "http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/82156403-157.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/21/benjamin-netanyahu-aide-shlomo-filber-testify-against-israeli-pm-reports", "https://dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2018/Feb-21/438802-netanyahu-confidant-agrees-to-testify-against-him-reports.ashx", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/polls-show-support-for-netanyahu-may-be-rising-after-police-allegations/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/31/world/middleeast/israel-rivlin-netanyahu-democracy.html?mtrref=www.gjopen.com&auth=login-email", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-21/netanyahu-legal-woes-worsen-as-ex-top-aide-agrees-to-testify", "https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/.premium-with-successors-like-that-we-might-miss-netanyahu-1.5822856", "https://youtu.be/SnYepF4WSME", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/20/israeli-police-name-benjamin-netanyahu-associates-in-corruption-inquiry", "https://www.theage.com.au/world/pm-netanyahus-fate-in-the-hands-of-an-attorneygeneral-he-promoted-20180215-h0w48h.html", "http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/israel-court-releases-netanyahu-aides-corruption-case-53355902", "https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/23/opinion/benjamin-netanyahu-israel.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fopinion"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-11-21 | 0.0 | [["2017-11-21", 0.075], ["2017-11-21", 0.125], ["2017-11-22", 0.14], ["2017-11-22", 0.155], ["2017-11-22", 0.15], ["2017-11-22", 0.15], ["2017-11-23", 0.15], ["2017-11-23", 0.2], ["2017-11-24", 0.15], ["2017-11-25", 0.125], ["2017-11-26", 0.15], ["2017-11-26", 0.15], ["2017-11-26", 0.125], ["2017-11-27", 0.2], 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2017-10-01 | Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?
| binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2017 and will be resolved in July 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Mali from July 2017 through June 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this.
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<hr>
This question closed as 'No', with resolutions further detailed in this <a href = "https://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2018/08/01/early-warning-project-question-resolutions-july-1-2017-june-30-2018/"target="_blank">GJ Open blog post written by EWP</a>.
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| 2019-12-09 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-06-30 | 0.0 | [["2017-06-30", 0.0], ["2017-07-01", 0.0], ["2017-07-01", 0.0], ["2017-07-01", 0.005], ["2017-07-01", 0.055], ["2017-07-01", 0.05], ["2017-07-01", 0.0], ["2017-07-02", 0.0], ["2017-07-02", 0.05], ["2017-07-02", 0.05], ["2017-07-03", 0.05], ["2017-07-03", 0.05], ["2017-07-03", 0.05], ["2017-07-04", 0.05], ["2017-07-04", 0.025], ["2017-07-04", 0.025], ["2017-07-04", 0.025], ["2017-07-05", 0.01], ["2017-07-05", 0.01], ["2017-07-05", 0.01], ["2017-07-05", 0.01], ["2017-07-06", 0.01], ["2017-07-06", 0.01], ["2017-07-07", 0.01], ["2017-07-07", 0.01], ["2017-07-08", 0.01], ["2017-07-09", 0.005], ["2017-07-09", 0.005], ["2017-07-09", 0.005], ["2017-07-10", 0.005], ["2017-07-11", 0.005], ["2017-07-11", 0.005], ["2017-07-11", 0.01], ["2017-07-11", 0.01], ["2017-07-12", 0.0], ["2017-07-12", 0.0], ["2017-07-12", 0.0], ["2017-07-12", 0.05], ["2017-07-13", 0.05], ["2017-07-13", 0.05], ["2017-07-14", 0.05], ["2017-07-14", 0.05], ["2017-07-14", 0.075], ["2017-07-15", 0.075], ["2017-07-16", 0.075], ["2017-07-17", 0.03], ["2017-07-17", 0.01], ["2017-07-17", 0.01], ["2017-07-17", 0.01], ["2017-07-18", 0.01], ["2017-07-19", 0.01], ["2017-07-19", 0.01], ["2017-07-20", 0.01], ["2017-07-20", 0.03], ["2017-07-20", 0.03], ["2017-07-21", 0.03], ["2017-07-21", 0.03], ["2017-07-22", 0.03], ["2017-07-22", 0.05], ["2017-07-22", 0.05], ["2017-07-22", 0.05], ["2017-07-23", 0.01], ["2017-07-23", 0.01], ["2017-07-23", 0.01], ["2017-07-23", 0.03], ["2017-07-24", 0.03], ["2017-07-24", 0.03], ["2017-07-25", 0.03], ["2017-07-25", 0.03], ["2017-07-26", 0.03], ["2017-07-26", 0.03], ["2017-07-26", 0.03], ["2017-07-27", 0.03], ["2017-07-27", 0.03], ["2017-07-28", 0.03], ["2017-07-28", 0.03], ["2017-07-29", 0.03], ["2017-07-29", 0.03], ["2017-07-30", 0.03], ["2017-07-31", 0.03], ["2017-07-31", 0.03], ["2017-08-01", 0.03], ["2017-08-01", 0.03], ["2017-08-02", 0.03], ["2017-08-02", 0.03], ["2017-08-02", 0.03], ["2017-08-03", 0.03], ["2017-08-03", 0.03], ["2017-08-04", 0.03], ["2017-08-05", 0.03], ["2017-08-06", 0.03], ["2017-08-07", 0.01], ["2017-08-07", 0.01], ["2017-08-08", 0.01], ["2017-08-09", 0.01], ["2017-08-09", 0.01], ["2017-08-09", 0.01], ["2017-08-10", 0.01], ["2017-08-10", 0.01], ["2017-08-11", 0.01], ["2017-08-11", 0.01], ["2017-08-12", 0.01], ["2017-08-12", 0.01], ["2017-08-13", 0.01], ["2017-08-13", 0.01], ["2017-08-14", 0.01], ["2017-08-14", 0.01], ["2017-08-15", 0.01], ["2017-08-15", 0.01], ["2017-08-16", 0.01], ["2017-08-16", 0.01], ["2017-08-16", 0.01], ["2017-08-17", 0.01], ["2017-08-18", 0.01], ["2017-08-18", 0.01], ["2017-08-19", 0.01], ["2017-08-20", 0.01], ["2017-08-21", 0.01], ["2017-08-21", 0.01], ["2017-08-22", 0.01], ["2017-08-22", 0.01], ["2017-08-23", 0.01], ["2017-08-23", 0.01], ["2017-08-24", 0.01], ["2017-08-24", 0.01], ["2017-08-25", 0.01], ["2017-08-25", 0.01], ["2017-08-26", 0.01], ["2017-08-26", 0.01], ["2017-08-26", 0.01], ["2017-08-27", 0.01], ["2017-08-28", 0.01], ["2017-08-28", 0.01], ["2017-08-29", 0.01], ["2017-08-29", 0.01], ["2017-08-30", 0.01], ["2017-08-30", 0.01], ["2017-08-31", 0.01], ["2017-08-31", 0.01], ["2017-09-01", 0.01], ["2017-09-01", 0.01], ["2017-09-02", 0.01], ["2017-09-03", 0.01], ["2017-09-03", 0.01], ["2017-09-03", 0.01], ["2017-09-03", 0.01], ["2017-09-03", 0.01], ["2017-09-04", 0.01], ["2017-09-04", 0.01], ["2017-09-04", 0.01], ["2017-09-05", 0.01], ["2017-09-05", 0.01], ["2017-09-05", 0.01], ["2017-09-06", 0.01], ["2017-09-06", 0.01], ["2017-09-07", 0.01], ["2017-09-07", 0.01], ["2017-09-08", 0.01], ["2017-09-08", 0.01], ["2017-09-09", 0.01], ["2017-09-11", 0.01], ["2017-09-12", 0.01], ["2017-09-12", 0.01], ["2017-09-12", 0.01], ["2017-09-13", 0.01], ["2017-09-13", 0.01], ["2017-09-14", 0.01], ["2017-09-14", 0.01], ["2017-09-15", 0.01], ["2017-09-16", 0.01], ["2017-09-16", 0.01], ["2017-09-16", 0.01], ["2017-09-17", 0.01], ["2017-09-17", 0.01], ["2017-09-18", 0.01], ["2017-09-18", 0.01], ["2017-09-18", 0.01], ["2017-09-20", 0.01], ["2017-09-20", 0.01], ["2017-09-20", 0.01], ["2017-09-21", 0.01], ["2017-09-21", 0.01], ["2017-09-21", 0.01], ["2017-09-21", 0.01], ["2017-09-21", 0.01], ["2017-09-21", 0.01], ["2017-09-21", 0.01], ["2017-09-21", 0.01], ["2017-09-22", 0.01], ["2017-09-22", 0.01], ["2017-09-22", 0.01], ["2017-09-22", 0.01], ["2017-09-22", 0.01], ["2017-09-22", 0.01], ["2017-09-22", 0.015], ["2017-09-22", 0.02], ["2017-09-22", 0.015], ["2017-09-23", 0.015], ["2017-09-23", 0.01], ["2017-09-23", 0.01], ["2017-09-23", 0.02], ["2017-09-24", 0.02], ["2017-09-24", 0.02], ["2017-09-25", 0.02], ["2017-09-25", 0.02], ["2017-09-26", 0.02], ["2017-09-26", 0.02], ["2017-09-27", 0.02], ["2017-09-27", 0.02], ["2017-09-28", 0.02], ["2017-09-28", 0.02], ["2017-09-29", 0.02], ["2017-09-29", 0.02], ["2017-09-30", 0.02], ["2017-09-30", 0.02], ["2017-10-01", 0.02]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/514 | True |
2019-01-01 | Before 1 January 2019, will Robert Mueller cease to be Special Counsel? | binary | Robert Mueller was appointed to serve as Special Counsel to investigate Russian interference with the 2016 presidential election and related matters by Acting Attorney General Rod Rosenstein in May 2017 (<a href = "https://www.justice.gov/opa/press-release/file/967231/download"target="_blank">U.S Department of Justice</a>).
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<hr>
This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2019.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
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2016-11-08 | Will the winner of the 2016 presidential election win the popular vote by 10 or more percentage points? | binary | This question was closed with the correct answer 'No' with an end date of 8 November 2016. Donald Trump, winner of the 2016 presidential election, did not win the popular vote. (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/president" target="_blank">NY Times</a>)
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<hr>
A popular vote margin of 10 points or greater has not happened since the 1984 presidential election, when Ronald Reagan defeated Walter Mondale by winning 58.8% of the popular vote to Mondale's 40.6%, but some analysts are predicting that this year's presidential election will be a landslide (<a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/16/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-landslide-loss/" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/24/us/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-polls.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/" target="_blank">FiveThirtyEight</a>).
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| 2016-11-17 | gjopen | ["http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#plus", "http://warontherocks.com/2016/10/emails-and-influence-investigating-russias-attack-on-the-u-s-political-system/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerald_L._K._Smith", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/317081", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1984", "http://www.worldatlas.com/articles/largest-landslide-victories-in-us-presidential-election-history.html", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/362329", "http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-after-trump-tape-revelation-clinton-s-lead-double-digits-n663691?cid=sm_tw", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geraldine_Ferraro", "http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/343932", "http://nbcnews.to/2eXOS3D", "http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-behind-clinton/", "http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/10/27/memo-shows-bill-clintons-wealth-tied-clinton-foundation/92842822/", "https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-clintons-big-lead-means-a-steadier-forecast/", "https://www.youtube.com/embed/TlqKFlU7YAs&quot", "http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html", "http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html#polls", "http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1936", "http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-vaults-double-digit-lead-boosted-broad-disapproval/story", "http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-bottom-could-fall-out-for-trump/?ex_cid=538fb", "http://www.thewrap.com/whats-wrong-or-right-about-the-la-times-poll-that-says-donald-trump-could-win/", "http://election.princeton.edu/history-of-meta-analysis/", "http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-09-02 | 0.0 | [["2016-09-02", 0.35], ["2016-09-02", 0.09], ["2016-09-02", 0.12], ["2016-09-02", 0.09], ["2016-09-02", 0.085], ["2016-09-02", 0.23], ["2016-09-02", 0.23], ["2016-09-02", 0.2], ["2016-09-02", 0.15], ["2016-09-03", 0.05], ["2016-09-03", 0.05], ["2016-09-03", 0.05], ["2016-09-03", 0.05], ["2016-09-03", 0.05], ["2016-09-03", 0.05], ["2016-09-03", 0.05], ["2016-09-03", 0.05], ["2016-09-03", 0.05], ["2016-09-04", 0.045], ["2016-09-04", 0.02], ["2016-09-04", 0.02], ["2016-09-04", 0.05], ["2016-09-04", 0.035], ["2016-09-04", 0.045], ["2016-09-04", 0.045], ["2016-09-04", 0.045], ["2016-09-04", 0.05], ["2016-09-04", 0.05], ["2016-09-04", 0.05], ["2016-09-04", 0.05], ["2016-09-04", 0.05], ["2016-09-05", 0.05], ["2016-09-05", 0.05], ["2016-09-05", 0.05], ["2016-09-05", 0.05], ["2016-09-05", 0.05], 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2018-01-01 | Before 1 January 2018, will President Trump sign legislation that repeals the federal estate tax? | binary | The White House’s call for an overhaul of the tax code includes a repeal of the federal estate tax (<a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/trump-to-unveil-proposal-for-massive-tax-cut/2017/04/26/2097fe42-2a94-11e7-be51-b3fc6ff7faee_story.html"target="_blank">Washington Post</a>). Temporary repeals will count (e.g. <a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2001-06-12/the-accountants-employment-act"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>).
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President Trump did not sign legislation that repeals the federal estate tax. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
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| 2018-01-11 | gjopen | ["https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-finance-202/2017/07/12/the-finance-202-tax-overhaul-at-mercy-of-budget-negotiators/59652d94e9b69b7071abcb11/", "https://www.majorityleader.gov/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/2017_ANNUAL_CALENDAR.pdf", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-tax-idUSKCN1BA14X", "http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/14/trump-tax-reform-big-six-242719", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-18/no-3-gop-senator-joins-those-opening-door-to-tax-revamp-in-2018", "https://www.senate.gov/legislative/resources/pdf/2017_calendar.pdf", "http://www.msnbc.com/", "https://www.politico.com/interactives/2017/whats-in-the-new-tax-bill/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-finance-202/2017/07/06/the-finance-202-how-committed-is-the-gop-to-tax-cuts-for-the-rich-we-re-about-to-find-out/595d2570e9b69b7071abca80/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/house-gop-unveils-budget-plan-that-attaches-major-spending-cuts-to-coming-tax-reform-bill/2017/07/18/6e68b679-c63a-4dd1-a3da-e191636946ad_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_gopbudget-606am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/senate-gop-hits-resistance-on-estate-tax-repealfrom-republicans-1507220889?wpmm=1&wpisrc=nl_daily202", "https://www.predictit.org/Contract/6252/Will-the-estate-tax-be-repealed-in-2017#data", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/13/politics/republican-tax-plan-deal/index.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-tax/senate-poised-for-crucial-vote-related-to-tax-reform-measure-idUSKBN1CO0ET", "https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/world-policy/article/2017/06/22/hitting-right-rhetoric-president-tax-2", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/09/19/white-house-seriously-considers-abandoning-some-tax-cuts-for-the-wealthy/?utm_term=.459cf54c5e10", "https://www.axios.com/tax-reform-shocker-the-white-house-actually-has-a-plan-2460447660.html", "http://www.politico.com/story/2017/07/14/house-republicans-spending-bill-240565", "http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/11/thanks-congress-wealthy-investors-hold-off-on-estate-tax-planning.html", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-tax-salt/discord-among-republicans-already-weighs-on-trumps-tax-plan-idUSKBN1CB13X", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-congress-budget-idUSKBN1A30RD", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/08/us/politics/senate-republicans-will-diverge-from-house-in-sweeping-tax-rewrite.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/481-before-1-january-2018-will-president-trump-sign-legislation-that-repeals-the-federal-estate-tax/www.msnbc.com", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-finance-202/2017/09/05/the-finance-202-tax-overhaul-faces-big-hurdles-as-congress-returns/59addb3630fb04264c2a1c99/", "http://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/13/trump-congress-tax-reform-241506"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-05-09 | 0.0 | [["2017-05-09", 0.99], ["2017-05-09", 0.055], ["2017-05-09", 0.5], ["2017-05-09", 0.6], ["2017-05-10", 0.34], ["2017-05-10", 0.35], ["2017-05-10", 0.35], ["2017-05-10", 0.185], ["2017-05-10", 0.2], ["2017-05-10", 0.075], ["2017-05-11", 0.15], ["2017-05-11", 0.35], ["2017-05-11", 0.375], ["2017-05-12", 0.425], ["2017-05-12", 0.35], ["2017-05-12", 0.275], ["2017-05-12", 0.35], ["2017-05-12", 0.325], ["2017-05-12", 0.25], ["2017-05-12", 0.275], ["2017-05-12", 0.2], ["2017-05-12", 0.225], ["2017-05-12", 0.2], ["2017-05-12", 0.2], ["2017-05-13", 0.19], ["2017-05-13", 0.19], ["2017-05-13", 0.2], ["2017-05-13", 0.2], ["2017-05-13", 0.2], ["2017-05-13", 0.2], ["2017-05-14", 0.225], ["2017-05-14", 0.2], ["2017-05-14", 0.225], ["2017-05-14", 0.225], ["2017-05-14", 0.275], ["2017-05-14", 0.25], ["2017-05-14", 0.2], ["2017-05-14", 0.2], ["2017-05-14", 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2018-07-01 | Before 1 July 2018, will Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte proclaim martial law nationwide? | binary | Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte recently proclaimed martial law in Mindanao and nearby islands (<a href = "https://www.ft.com/content/67736a20-3fd6-11e7-82b6-896b95f30f58"target="_blank">Financial Times</a>, <a href = "http://thediplomat.com/2017/05/duterte-places-philippine-island-of-mindanao-under-martial-law-what-next/"target="_blank">The Diplomat</a>), and has considered nationwide martial law (<a href = "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/05/duterte-considers-martial-law-entire-philippines-170524141420752"target="_blank">Aljazeera</a>, <a href = "http://www.vocativ.com/435055/manila-attack-fears-duterte-martial-law/"target="_blank">Vocativ</a>).
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<hr>
This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 July 2018.
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| 2018-07-02 | gjopen | ["http://www.atimes.com/article/duterte-reaches-unlimited-unending-power/", "http://opinion.inquirer.net/106651/ending-martial-law#ixzz4r0045DG0", "https://psa.gov.ph/content/mindanao-comprised-about-24-percent-philippines-total-population", "https://www.state.gov/documents/organization/272485.pdf", "http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2017/08/20/1730812/independent-probe-urged-drug-slays", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-rebels/philippines-duterte-urges-congress-to-pass-bill-for-self-rule-in-muslim-region-idUSKBN1F71ER", "http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/907485/duterte-nationwide-martial-law-is-presently-unnecessary", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martial_law_in_the_Philippines", "http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/day-rage-president-duterte-170926114614352.html", "https://www.rappler.com/nation/191207-congress-mindanao-martial-law-extension-2018", "https://www.rappler.com/nation/195737-duterte-revolutionary-government-martial-law-trillanes", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/13/world/asia/philippines-martial-law-duterte.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/17/world/asia/philippines-marawi-fighting.html?rref=collection%2Ftimestopic%2FPhilippines&action=click&contentCollection=world&region=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=collection", "http://cnnphilippines.com/news/2017/10/20/Duterte-says-martial-law-to-remain-until-last-terrorist-is-taken.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/12/philippines-rodrigo-duterte-police-war-drugs", "http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/2111330/philippine-president-duterte-may-declare-nationwide-martial", "https://thediplomat.com/2017/12/with-martial-law-extended-in-the-philippines-whats-next-for-dutertes-new-communist-terrorist-war/", "http://news.mb.com.ph/2017/07/22/lorenzana-assures-luzon-and-visayas-would-not-be-placed-under-martial-law/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/587209", "http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2017/06/21/1712249/duterte-nationwide-martial-law-not-needed-time", "http://www.sunstar.com.ph/manila/local-news/2017/09/10/duterte-warns-martial-law-nationwide-if-reds-stage-street-hostility", "http://news.abs-cbn.com/blogs/news/12/15/17/opinion-duterte-does-not-rule-out-nationwide-martial-law"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-08-15 | 0.0 | [["2017-08-15", 0.23], ["2017-08-16", 0.75], ["2017-08-16", 0.55], ["2017-08-16", 0.35], ["2017-08-16", 0.275], ["2017-08-17", 0.11], ["2017-08-17", 0.11], ["2017-08-17", 0.11], ["2017-08-17", 0.1], ["2017-08-18", 0.145], ["2017-08-19", 0.145], ["2017-08-19", 0.15], ["2017-08-20", 0.15], ["2017-08-21", 0.125], ["2017-08-21", 0.145], ["2017-08-22", 0.15], ["2017-08-22", 0.15], ["2017-08-23", 0.15], ["2017-08-23", 0.15], ["2017-08-24", 0.15], ["2017-08-24", 0.15], ["2017-08-25", 0.18], ["2017-08-26", 0.18], ["2017-08-27", 0.165], ["2017-08-28", 0.165], ["2017-08-29", 0.24], ["2017-08-29", 0.18], 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2018-04-01 | Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan?
| binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Afghanistan from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as No. (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/EWPJan2018Dec2018"target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a>)
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. | 2019-12-09 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-12-28 | 0.0 | [["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.25], ["2017-12-29", 0.525], ["2017-12-29", 0.275], ["2017-12-29", 0.01], ["2017-12-29", 0.01], ["2017-12-29", 0.055], ["2017-12-29", 0.275], ["2017-12-29", 0.275], ["2017-12-30", 0.235], ["2017-12-30", 0.11], ["2017-12-31", 0.11], ["2017-12-31", 0.085], ["2017-12-31", 0.15], ["2017-12-31", 0.15], ["2017-12-31", 0.1], ["2017-12-31", 0.06], ["2017-12-31", 0.125], ["2017-12-31", 0.15], ["2017-12-31", 0.2], ["2017-12-31", 0.1], ["2017-12-31", 0.1], ["2017-12-31", 0.15], ["2017-12-31", 0.225], ["2017-12-31", 0.3], ["2017-12-31", 0.3], ["2017-12-31", 0.3], ["2017-12-31", 0.325], ["2017-12-31", 0.35], ["2017-12-31", 0.325], 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2016-10-17 | Will the United States remove Iran from the list of countries identified as state sponsors of terrorism before 18 October 2016? | binary | This question was closed on option B) 'No' on 17 October, 2016. The State Department has not removed Iran from its list of state sponsors of terror. (<a href="http://www.state.gov/j/ct/list/c14151.htm" target="_blank">US Department of State</a>)
Since 1984, Iran has been on the U.S. Department of State's State Sponsors of Terrorism list, a designation that involves significant sanctions (<a href = "http://www.state.gov/j/ct/list/c14151.htm" target = "_blank">State Department</a>). 18 October 2016 is the one year anniversary of "Adoption Day" for the nuclear deal.
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<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/136-will-bahrain-qatar-or-the-uae-return-an-ambassador-to-iran-before-18-october-2016" target = "_blank">Will Bahrain, Qatar, or the UAE return an ambassador to Iran before 18 October 2016?</a> | 2016-10-18 | gjopen | ["http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/24/us/politics/iran-embassy-state-department.html", "http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2016/08/analysis-irgc-implicated-in-arming-yemeni-houthis-with-missiles.php", "http://thewire.in/50922/us-lawmakers-challenge-iran-nuclear-deal-fresh-legislation/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Heritage_Foundation", "http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/10/13/iran-sends-ships-to-yemeni-coast-in-wake-of-u-s-strikes/", "http://www.local10.com/news/politics/us-official-navy-aircraft-threatened-with-shoot-down-by-iran", "http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/06/03/iran-still-leading-state-sponsor-of-terrorism-u-s-state-department-reports/", "https://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2016/06/258013.htm", "https://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/crt/2014/239410.htm", "http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Iran-News/Iran-left-with-no-choice-but-to-confront-the-US-official-warns-460953", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-exemptions-exclusive-idUSKCN1173LA", "https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/obliviously-huge-deal-us-navy-201336151.html", "http://www.worldtribune.com/report-calls-iran-top-mideast-threat-to-u-s-interests-by-far/", "http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/patrick-goodenough/analyst-iran-could-spend-more-1-billion-17-billion-windfall-terror", "http://www.nationalreview.com/article/432516/iran-nuclear-deal-iaea-reports-violations-disclosure", "http://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/crt/2015/257520.htm", "http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/19827/nuclear-deal-does-little-to-change-iran-s-engagement-with-the-world", "https://www.cia.gov/index.html", "http://www.heritage.org/", "http://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/crt/2015/257517.htm", "http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2016/08/irgc-commander-discusses-afghan-militia-shia-liberation-army-and-syria.php", "http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/02/politics/state-department-report-terrorism/", "http://soufangroup.com/tsg-intelbrief-irans-expanding-strategic-reach/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Activities_Division", "https://www.yahoo.com/gma/7-iranian-boats-harass-navy-ship-gulf-183806915--abc-news-topstories.html"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-02-09 | 0.0 | [["2016-02-09", 0.025], ["2016-02-09", 0.04], ["2016-02-09", 0.035], ["2016-02-09", 0.03], ["2016-02-09", 0.025], ["2016-02-09", 0.01], ["2016-02-09", 0.0], ["2016-02-09", 0.0], ["2016-02-09", 0.0], ["2016-02-09", 0.05], ["2016-02-09", 0.04], ["2016-02-09", 0.04], ["2016-02-10", 0.05], ["2016-02-10", 0.045], ["2016-02-10", 0.04], ["2016-02-10", 0.035], ["2016-02-10", 0.03], ["2016-02-10", 0.03], ["2016-02-10", 0.045], ["2016-02-10", 0.05], ["2016-02-10", 0.05], ["2016-02-10", 0.05], 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2020-01-01 | Before 1 January 2020, will any change be made to the Russian Constitution that would allow Vladimir Putin to remain in a leadership role after his current term? | binary | The Russian Constitution limits presidents to two consecutive terms, but there has been speculation that future constitutional changes could allow Putin to remain in power past 2024 (<a href="https://apnews.com/f447c4e387a54298925d307850f68468/Putin%27s-dilemma:-Scrap-term-limits-or-choose-a-successor, https://www.ft.com/content/d87dc102-d464-11e7-a303-9060cb1e5f44" target="_blank">Associated Press</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/11/world/europe/russia-vladimir-putin-election.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>). Examples of constitutional changes that could count include, but are not limited to, revised term limits or the creation of a new position or government body.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub><p></p><hr><p>This question closed as "No" with an end date of 1 January 2020. </p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>
| 2020-01-03 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2018-04-11 | 0.0 | [["2018-04-11", 0.2], ["2018-04-12", 0.355], ["2018-04-12", 0.1], ["2018-04-12", 0.125], ["2018-04-12", 0.4], ["2018-04-13", 0.55], ["2018-04-13", 0.64], ["2018-04-13", 0.72], ["2018-04-14", 0.775], ["2018-04-14", 0.8], ["2018-04-14", 0.575], ["2018-04-14", 0.35], ["2018-04-14", 0.275], ["2018-04-14", 0.2], ["2018-04-15", 0.275], ["2018-04-15", 0.25], ["2018-04-15", 0.25], ["2018-04-16", 0.315], ["2018-04-16", 0.315], ["2018-04-16", 0.3], ["2018-04-17", 0.25], ["2018-04-18", 0.3], ["2018-04-18", 0.3], ["2018-04-19", 0.315], ["2018-04-20", 0.34], ["2018-04-21", 0.35], ["2018-04-22", 0.435], ["2018-04-23", 0.5], ["2018-04-24", 0.5], ["2018-04-24", 0.47], ["2018-04-25", 0.535], ["2018-04-26", 0.63], ["2018-04-29", 0.63], ["2018-04-30", 0.55], ["2018-04-30", 0.46], ["2018-05-02", 0.5], ["2018-05-05", 0.6], ["2018-05-06", 0.575], ["2018-05-09", 0.625], ["2018-05-10", 0.65], ["2018-05-12", 0.65], 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["2019-12-03", 0.02], ["2019-12-04", 0.02], ["2019-12-05", 0.02], ["2019-12-07", 0.02], ["2019-12-08", 0.02], ["2019-12-09", 0.02], ["2019-12-12", 0.02], ["2019-12-13", 0.02], ["2019-12-16", 0.01], ["2019-12-16", 0.01], ["2019-12-19", 0.01], ["2019-12-20", 0.01], ["2019-12-20", 0.01], ["2019-12-21", 0.01], ["2019-12-22", 0.01], ["2019-12-23", 0.01], ["2019-12-25", 0.01], ["2019-12-27", 0.005], ["2019-12-28", 0.0], ["2019-12-28", 0.0], ["2019-12-29", 0.0], ["2019-12-30", 0.0], ["2019-12-31", 0.0], ["2019-12-31", 0.0], ["2020-01-01", 0.0], ["2020-01-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/932 | True |
2019-03-19 | In Air and Liquid Systems Corp. v. Devries, will the Supreme Court rule that Air and Liquid Systems Corp. can be held liable for negligence in exposing service members to asbestos? | binary | In 2014, the widows of US naval servicemen who died of cancer allegedly caused by exposure to asbestos lost a civil suit against Air and Liquid Systems Corp. (<a href="https://www.courthousenews.com/asbestos-liability-case-picked-up-by-supreme-court/" target="_blank">Court House News</a>). The Third Circuit reversed that decision, ruling that the company could be held liable for negligence even though their products were not manufactured with asbestos (<a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2018/17-1104" target="_blank">Oyez</a>). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2018 term (<a href="http://www.scotusblog.com/2018/05/two-new-grants-one-cvsg-today/" target="_blank">SCOTUSBlog</a>), but if it does not, the question will resolve as no. <sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>. The Court's ruling may be found here: </span><font color="#1b6ac9" face="Open Sans"><u>https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/18pdf/17-1104_2co3.pdf</u></font><font color="#283c46" face="Open Sans">.</font></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p></div> | 2019-03-19 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2018-09-21 | 1.0 | [["2018-09-21", 0.15], ["2018-09-22", 0.1], ["2018-09-22", 0.05], ["2018-09-22", 0.045], ["2018-09-22", 0.095], ["2018-09-23", 0.09], ["2018-09-23", 0.06], ["2018-09-23", 0.01], ["2018-09-23", 0.015], ["2018-09-23", 0.035], ["2018-09-24", 0.035], ["2018-09-24", 0.05], ["2018-09-24", 0.05], ["2018-09-24", 0.05], ["2018-09-25", 0.05], ["2018-09-25", 0.05], ["2018-09-25", 0.035], ["2018-09-26", 0.015], ["2018-09-28", 0.01], ["2018-09-28", 0.01], ["2018-09-28", 0.01], ["2018-09-28", 0.01], ["2018-10-01", 0.01], ["2018-10-03", 0.01], ["2018-10-03", 0.01], ["2018-10-04", 0.01], ["2018-10-07", 0.01], ["2018-10-07", 0.01], ["2018-10-07", 0.01], ["2018-10-08", 0.05], ["2018-10-08", 0.05], ["2018-10-09", 0.03], ["2018-10-09", 0.03], ["2018-10-09", 0.04], ["2018-10-10", 0.04], ["2018-10-10", 0.05], ["2018-10-11", 0.03], ["2018-10-12", 0.05], ["2018-10-12", 0.05], ["2018-10-12", 0.05], ["2018-10-12", 0.05], ["2018-10-12", 0.05], ["2018-10-12", 0.05], ["2018-10-12", 0.05], ["2018-10-14", 0.05], ["2018-10-14", 0.075], ["2018-10-14", 0.04], ["2018-10-14", 0.04], ["2018-10-14", 0.05], ["2018-10-15", 0.05], ["2018-10-16", 0.05], ["2018-10-16", 0.05], ["2018-10-16", 0.05], ["2018-10-16", 0.05], ["2018-10-16", 0.04], ["2018-10-17", 0.04], ["2018-10-17", 0.05], ["2018-10-17", 0.05], ["2018-10-18", 0.05], ["2018-10-18", 0.05], ["2018-10-20", 0.05], ["2018-10-22", 0.05], ["2018-10-23", 0.1], ["2018-10-24", 0.1], ["2018-10-27", 0.1], ["2018-10-28", 0.1], ["2018-10-29", 0.1], ["2018-10-30", 0.1], ["2018-10-30", 0.1], ["2018-10-31", 0.1], ["2018-11-02", 0.125], ["2018-11-04", 0.125], ["2018-11-06", 0.125], ["2018-11-06", 0.15], ["2018-11-10", 0.15], ["2018-11-13", 0.1], ["2018-11-13", 0.1], ["2018-11-13", 0.1], ["2018-11-13", 0.1], ["2018-11-14", 0.1], ["2018-11-14", 0.1], ["2018-11-14", 0.15], ["2018-11-15", 0.2], ["2018-11-15", 0.2], ["2018-11-15", 0.25], ["2018-11-15", 0.25], ["2018-11-16", 0.225], ["2018-11-17", 0.2], ["2018-11-17", 0.2], ["2018-11-17", 0.225], ["2018-11-20", 0.225], ["2018-11-25", 0.225], ["2018-11-25", 0.225], ["2018-11-28", 0.225], ["2018-12-05", 0.225], ["2018-12-07", 0.225], ["2018-12-07", 0.29], ["2018-12-08", 0.29], ["2018-12-09", 0.29], ["2018-12-10", 0.33], ["2018-12-10", 0.33], ["2018-12-11", 0.33], ["2018-12-13", 0.34], ["2018-12-13", 0.34], ["2018-12-14", 0.34], ["2018-12-16", 0.34], ["2018-12-16", 0.33], ["2018-12-19", 0.33], ["2018-12-20", 0.33], ["2018-12-23", 0.35], ["2018-12-24", 0.35], ["2018-12-26", 0.34], ["2018-12-30", 0.34], ["2019-01-02", 0.33], ["2019-01-04", 0.33], ["2019-01-06", 0.33], ["2019-01-06", 0.33], ["2019-01-06", 0.34], ["2019-01-06", 0.34], ["2019-01-06", 0.365], ["2019-01-06", 0.4], ["2019-01-06", 0.4], ["2019-01-06", 0.45], ["2019-01-06", 0.365], ["2019-01-07", 0.365], ["2019-01-09", 0.365], ["2019-01-10", 0.33], ["2019-01-11", 0.35], ["2019-01-11", 0.375], ["2019-01-12", 0.45], ["2019-01-12", 0.525], ["2019-01-13", 0.5], ["2019-01-14", 0.5], ["2019-01-15", 0.55], ["2019-01-15", 0.5], ["2019-01-16", 0.525], ["2019-01-16", 0.525], ["2019-01-17", 0.525], ["2019-01-20", 0.525], ["2019-01-20", 0.475], ["2019-01-24", 0.475], ["2019-01-27", 0.375], ["2019-02-05", 0.375], ["2019-02-07", 0.4], ["2019-02-10", 0.4], ["2019-02-13", 0.35], ["2019-02-14", 0.35], ["2019-02-19", 0.33], ["2019-02-24", 0.33], ["2019-02-26", 0.33], ["2019-03-01", 0.33], ["2019-03-04", 0.33], ["2019-03-11", 0.34], ["2019-03-13", 0.35], ["2019-03-13", 0.35], ["2019-03-14", 0.35], ["2019-03-18", 0.34], ["2019-03-19", 0.34], ["2019-03-19", 0.34]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1004 | True |
2017-12-27 | Before 27 December 2017, will Algeria, Morocco, or Tunisia issue sharia-compliant government bonds? | binary | As North African states struggle with declining revenues, a number are considering issuing sharia compliant non-interest bonds to attract more investors (<a href = "https://www.reuters.com/article/algeria-politics-idUSL8N1JH47A"target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "http://www.gulf-times.com/story/553167/A-new-world-of-Islamic-banking-unfolds-in-Morocco"target="_blank">Gulf Times</a>, <a href = "https://www.reuters.com/article/tunisia-sukuk-idAFL8N1IC125"target="_blank">Reuters</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
Algeria, Morocco, or Tunisia did not yet issue sharia-compliant government bonds. This question closed as "no" with and end date of 27 December 2017.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| 2017-12-28 | gjopen | ["http://www3.asiainsurancereview.com/News/View-NewsLetter-Article?id=40999&Type=MiddleEast", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/595758", "https://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21724416-borrower-refuses-pay-challenging-sharia-compliance-its-bond-infant", "http://www.imf.org/en/Countries/DZA", "http://uk.ifaas.com/islamic-finance-gets-feet-north-africa.html", "http://www.nasdaq.com/article/algeria-plans-first-sukuk-issuance-in-2018-pm-20170921-00973", "https://www.islamicfinancenews.com/morocco-misses-sukuk-issuance-date.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/593410", "https://www.oxfordbusinessgroup.com/analysis/sovereign-state-islamic-bonds-may-be-next-government-increases-issuances", "http://www.mifc.com/index.php?ch=ch_contents_capital_markets&pg=pg_cm_global&ac=26036", "http://www.chinagoabroad.com/en/article/morocco-to-issue-sukuk-by-the-end-of-the-year-if-higher-council-of-ulamas-gives-go-ahead", "https://www.islamicfinancenews.com/daily-cover-story-morocco-to-issue-sukuk-by-the-end-of-the-year-if-higher-council-of-ulamas-gives-go-ahead.html", "https://www.zawya.com/mena/en/story/Bahrains_Al_Baraka_revs_up_Africa_footprint_with_Morocco_venture-TR20170911nL8N1LA0AGX2/", "https://africanmanager.com/site_eng/?v=947d7d61cd9a", "https://www.reuters.com/article/algeria-economy-idAFL5N1M24H1", "http://www.africamonitor-newsletter.com/economic-analysis-unorthodox-financing-plan-will-raise-political-risk-dec-2017", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/593310"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-10-09 | 0.0 | [["2017-10-11", 0.75], ["2017-10-11", 0.01], ["2017-10-11", 0.28], ["2017-10-11", 0.45], ["2017-10-11", 0.175], ["2017-10-11", 0.03], ["2017-10-11", 0.03], ["2017-10-11", 0.015], ["2017-10-11", 0.315], ["2017-10-12", 0.3], ["2017-10-12", 0.05], ["2017-10-12", 0.05], ["2017-10-12", 0.025], ["2017-10-12", 0.03], ["2017-10-12", 0.005], ["2017-10-12", 0.01], 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["2017-12-21", 0.01], ["2017-12-21", 0.01], ["2017-12-21", 0.01], ["2017-12-22", 0.01], ["2017-12-22", 0.01], ["2017-12-22", 0.01], ["2017-12-22", 0.01], ["2017-12-22", 0.01], ["2017-12-23", 0.01], ["2017-12-23", 0.01], ["2017-12-23", 0.01], ["2017-12-23", 0.01], ["2017-12-23", 0.01], ["2017-12-24", 0.01], ["2017-12-24", 0.01], ["2017-12-24", 0.01], ["2017-12-24", 0.005], ["2017-12-24", 0.005], ["2017-12-24", 0.01], ["2017-12-25", 0.0], ["2017-12-25", 0.005], ["2017-12-25", 0.005], ["2017-12-25", 0.005], ["2017-12-26", 0.005], ["2017-12-26", 0.0], ["2017-12-26", 0.0], ["2017-12-26", 0.0], ["2017-12-26", 0.0], ["2017-12-26", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/646 | True |
2019-01-01 | Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen? | binary | <p>The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and will be resolved in October 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Yemen from October 2018 to September 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples
" target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJO's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="font-size: 10.5px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="font-size: 10.5px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); outline: -webkit-focus-ring-color auto 5px; outline-offset: -2px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. For more information on the resolution of this EWP question and its companion questions, see "<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpoct18sep19#" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Early Warning Project Question Resolutions: October 1, 2018-September 30, 2019</a>." </p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2020-01-05 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2018-09-28 | 0.0 | [["2018-09-29", 0.06], ["2018-09-29", 0.08], ["2018-09-29", 0.06], ["2018-09-29", 0.08], ["2018-09-29", 0.08], ["2018-09-29", 0.09], ["2018-09-29", 0.08], ["2018-09-30", 0.07], ["2018-09-30", 0.06], ["2018-10-01", 0.05], ["2018-10-01", 0.065], ["2018-10-01", 0.065], ["2018-10-01", 0.065], ["2018-10-02", 0.09], ["2018-10-02", 0.09], ["2018-10-03", 0.09], ["2018-10-04", 0.075], ["2018-10-04", 0.05], ["2018-10-05", 0.1], ["2018-10-05", 0.1], ["2018-10-06", 0.155], ["2018-10-06", 0.155], ["2018-10-06", 0.15], ["2018-10-07", 0.15], ["2018-10-07", 0.125], ["2018-10-08", 0.15], ["2018-10-08", 0.15], ["2018-10-08", 0.155], ["2018-10-10", 0.165], ["2018-10-11", 0.17], ["2018-10-12", 0.17], ["2018-10-12", 0.17], ["2018-10-12", 0.17], ["2018-10-12", 0.125], ["2018-10-13", 0.125], ["2018-10-14", 0.125], ["2018-10-14", 0.1], ["2018-10-14", 0.15], ["2018-10-16", 0.15], ["2018-10-16", 0.125], ["2018-10-17", 0.125], ["2018-10-17", 0.125], ["2018-10-17", 0.125], ["2018-10-17", 0.125], ["2018-10-17", 0.125], ["2018-10-17", 0.125], ["2018-10-18", 0.1], ["2018-10-18", 0.125], ["2018-10-19", 0.175], ["2018-10-20", 0.175], ["2018-10-21", 0.15], ["2018-10-21", 0.15], ["2018-10-22", 0.15], ["2018-10-23", 0.15], ["2018-10-24", 0.15], ["2018-10-24", 0.17], ["2018-10-26", 0.17], ["2018-10-28", 0.17], ["2018-10-28", 0.195], ["2018-10-30", 0.195], ["2018-10-31", 0.2], ["2018-11-01", 0.195], ["2018-11-06", 0.195], ["2018-11-06", 0.19], ["2018-11-06", 0.19], ["2018-11-08", 0.17], ["2018-11-09", 0.13], ["2018-11-10", 0.13], ["2018-11-10", 0.13], ["2018-11-11", 0.13], ["2018-11-11", 0.11], ["2018-11-11", 0.115], ["2018-11-11", 0.12], ["2018-11-15", 0.15], ["2018-11-15", 0.15], ["2018-11-15", 0.15], ["2018-11-15", 0.19], ["2018-11-16", 0.195], ["2018-11-18", 0.195], ["2018-11-18", 0.175], ["2018-11-18", 0.175], ["2018-11-19", 0.15], ["2018-11-19", 0.175], ["2018-11-20", 0.15], ["2018-11-20", 0.15], ["2018-11-21", 0.15], ["2018-11-21", 0.15], ["2018-11-22", 0.15], ["2018-11-23", 0.15], ["2018-11-24", 0.15], ["2018-11-25", 0.15], ["2018-11-25", 0.15], ["2018-11-25", 0.15], ["2018-11-25", 0.16], ["2018-11-28", 0.16], ["2018-11-30", 0.155], ["2018-11-30", 0.155], ["2018-12-06", 0.155], ["2018-12-07", 0.155], ["2018-12-07", 0.155], ["2018-12-07", 0.135], ["2018-12-09", 0.12], ["2018-12-09", 0.12], ["2018-12-09", 0.12], ["2018-12-10", 0.135], ["2018-12-10", 0.135], ["2018-12-11", 0.135], ["2018-12-12", 0.12], ["2018-12-13", 0.15], ["2018-12-13", 0.135], ["2018-12-13", 0.135], ["2018-12-13", 0.11], ["2018-12-14", 0.11], ["2018-12-15", 0.12], ["2018-12-16", 0.1], ["2018-12-16", 0.08], ["2018-12-17", 0.08], ["2018-12-19", 0.09], ["2018-12-20", 0.09], ["2018-12-20", 0.08], ["2018-12-23", 0.08], ["2018-12-23", 0.08], ["2018-12-24", 0.075], ["2018-12-24", 0.075], ["2018-12-28", 0.075], ["2018-12-28", 0.08], ["2018-12-31", 0.08], ["2019-01-01", 0.08]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1008 | True |
2017-12-02 | Will Barnaby Joyce win the upcoming by-election in New England, Australia? | binary | Australia's former Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce is running in a by-election scheduled for 2 December 2017, a race which may determine which party holds the majority in Australia's House of Representatives (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/26/world/australia/citizenship-ruling.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.northerndailyleader.com.au/story/5021322/whos-in-out-and-on-the-fence-for-the-new-england-by-election/"target="_blank">Northern Daily Leader</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
Barnaby Joyce <a href = "http://www.skynews.com.au/news/politics/federal/2017/12/06/joyce-sworn-back-in-after-by-election.html"target="_blank">won the by-election</a>. This question closed as "Yes."
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
| 2017-12-08 | gjopen | ["https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2017/12/02/new-england-election-landslide-win-expected-joyce-polls-open", "http://www.aec.gov.au/new-england/counting-process.htm", "http://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-21364-135.htm"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-11-28 | 1.0 | [["2017-11-29", 0.5], ["2017-11-29", 0.75], ["2017-11-29", 0.725], ["2017-11-29", 0.79], ["2017-11-29", 0.865], ["2017-11-29", 0.85], ["2017-11-29", 0.85], ["2017-11-30", 0.99], ["2017-11-30", 0.985], ["2017-11-30", 0.995], ["2017-11-30", 0.99], ["2017-11-30", 0.99], ["2017-11-30", 0.99], ["2017-11-30", 0.99], ["2017-11-30", 0.995], ["2017-11-30", 0.985], ["2017-11-30", 0.985], ["2017-11-30", 0.995], ["2017-11-30", 0.995], ["2017-11-30", 0.995], ["2017-11-30", 1.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.99], ["2017-12-01", 0.99], ["2017-12-01", 1.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.995], ["2017-12-01", 0.985], ["2017-12-01", 0.985], ["2017-12-01", 0.99], ["2017-12-01", 0.99], ["2017-12-01", 0.99], ["2017-12-02", 0.99], ["2017-12-02", 0.99]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/772 | True |
2017-12-31 | Will the European Union announce the imposition of a travel ban or seizure of assets of a Venezuelan government official between 30 November and 31 December? | binary | On November 13, 2017, foreign ministers of the European Union (EU) established the legal basis for imposing sanctions on Venezuelan government officials in order to pressure the Venezuelan government to strengthen the rule of law and legitimate democratic elections (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/13/world/americas/venezuela-embargo-european-union.html?rref=collection%2Ftimestopic%2FVenezuela&action=click&contentCollection=world®ion=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=4&pgtype=collection"target="_blank">NY Times</a>) Question will resolve as “yes” if credible media or the EU report that the EU is imposing a travel ban or seizing the assets of a Venezuelan government official, including but not limited to President Maduro, during the relevant time period.
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<hr> | 2018-01-02 | gjopen | ["http://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/a-992f-Latin-America-rejects-threats-to-Venezuela", "http://consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/calendar/?dateFrom=&dateTo=&filters=2025", "http://consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2017/11/13/venezuela-eu-adopts-conclusions-and-targeted-sanctions/", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-eu/eu-readies-sanctions-on-venezuela-approves-arms-embargo-idUSKBN1DD0UN?il=0", "http://consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/fac/2018/01/22/", "https://europeansanctions.com/category/venezuela/", "http://consilium.europa.eu/en/search/?filetypes=PAGE&Keyword=venezuela", "https://uk.news.yahoo.com/advances-no-deal-venezuela-rivals-talk-005656394.html"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-11-28 | 0.0 | [["2017-11-29", 0.25], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.005], ["2017-11-29", 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2015-12-03 | Will the National Retail Federation report that online and in-store spending for Thanksgiving weekend exceeded $50.9 billion? | binary | This question has been voided.
<br>
<br>
Outcome will be determined by data from the National Retail Federation (NRF). For a summary of last year's data, see: https://nrf.com/media/press-releases/early-promotions-online-shopping-and-improving-economy-changing-the-face-of . The NRF reported sales of $50.9 billion in 2014, an 11% decrease from 2013 (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/01/business/thanksgiving-weekend-sales-at-stores-and-online-slide-11-percent.html , http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/black-friday-weekend-sees-fewer-shoppers-and-a-decline-in-spending/2014/11/30/dd69aa0e-78bf-11e4-9a27-6fdbc612bff8_story.html , http://fortune.com/2014/11/30/black-friday-weekend-sales/ ). Thanksgiving weekend runs Thursday-Sunday. | None | gjopen | ["http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/", "https://nrf.com/media/press-releases/thanksgiving-weekend-shopping-brings-big-store-and-online-crowds-according-nrf", "http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/29/us-usa-holidayshopping-idUSKBN0TI0WB20151129", "https://nrf.com/sites/default/files/2014%20Black%20Friday%20Weekend%20-%20press%20FINAL.pdf", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/51219", "http://www.bbc.com/news/business-34931837", "http://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/nb/tom-blumer/2015/11/28/aps-rugaber-hides-overall-decline-thanksgiving-and-black-friday-sales", "http://www.shoppertrak.com/black-weekend-traffic-sales-update/", "https://nrf.com/media/press-releases/thanksgiving-weekend-shopping-brings-big-store-and-online-crowds-according-nrf#sthash.03dYIaI8.dpuf", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/online-shopping-tops-stores-on-black-friday-weekend-1448832594", "http://report...hopefully...or/", "http://bizzyblog.com/wp-images/TgivingAndBlackFriSales2015and2014.jpg", "https://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/51511", "http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/28/business/black-friday-shopping-shifts-online-as-stores-see-less-foot-traffic.html", "https://nrf.com/sites/default/files/Documents/NRF-Thanksgiving-Weekend-2015-Consumer-Survey-Data.pdf", "http://techcrunch.com/2015/11/28/thanksgiving-online-sales/#.lylm3nk:yEOH", "https://nrf.com/media/press-releases/early-promotions-online-shopping-and-improving-economy-changing-the-face-of", "http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/28/us-usa-holidayshopping-idUSKBN0TH0R020151128", "http://not...sigh/", "https://www.acrwebsite.org/search/view-conference-proceedings.aspx?Id=6448", "http://cdn.meme.am/instances/500x/63767306.jpg", "http://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2015/11/28/black-friday-store-sales-fall-as-americans-buy-more-online", "http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/28/black-friday-sales-slip-from-year-prior-shoppertrak.html", "http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/11/early-black-friday-sales-numbers-are-bunk/417828/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2015-11-17 | Not resolved. | [["2015-11-17", 1.0], ["2015-11-17", 0.925], ["2015-11-17", 0.89], ["2015-11-17", 0.87], ["2015-11-17", 0.88], ["2015-11-17", 0.885], ["2015-11-17", 0.88], ["2015-11-17", 0.865], ["2015-11-17", 0.85], ["2015-11-17", 0.655], ["2015-11-17", 0.56], ["2015-11-17", 0.505], ["2015-11-17", 0.46], ["2015-11-17", 0.505], ["2015-11-17", 0.55], ["2015-11-17", 0.575], ["2015-11-17", 0.55], ["2015-11-17", 0.575], ["2015-11-17", 0.55], ["2015-11-17", 0.55], ["2015-11-17", 0.55], ["2015-11-18", 0.505], ["2015-11-18", 0.55], ["2015-11-18", 0.505], ["2015-11-18", 0.55], ["2015-11-18", 0.46], ["2015-11-18", 0.455], ["2015-11-18", 0.45], ["2015-11-18", 0.45], ["2015-11-18", 0.5], ["2015-11-18", 0.45], ["2015-11-18", 0.45], 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2017-12-08 | Will the location of the missing Argentinian submarine be determined before 8 December 2017? | binary | On November 23, 2017, the Argentinian Navy confirmed that its missing submarine, the San Juan, had experienced an explosion near the location of its last contact. (<a href = "http://www.latimes.com/world/mexico-americas/la-fg-argentina-missing-submarine-20171123-story.html"target="_blank">LA Times</a>, <a href = "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-argentina-submarine/water-entered-missing-argentine-subs-snorkel-causing-short-circuit-idUSKBN1DR2B3?il=0"target="_blank">Reuters</a>) Question will resolve as "yes" if (a) credible media report that the ship or some remains of the ship have been located OR (b) there is an announcement or confirmation by the Argentinian government that the ship or some remains of the ship have been located.
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<hr>
| 2017-12-11 | gjopen | ["http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/11/30/rescue-mission-for-argentine-submarine-crew-ends-search-for-sub-continues.html", "https://news.usni.org/2017/11/30/search-ended-for-missing-argentine-sub-survivors?utm_source=USNI+News&utm_campaign=c5c313aebc-USNI_NEWS_DAILY&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_0dd4a1450b-c5c313aebc-231045397&mc_cid=c5c313aebc&mc_eid=2394c94b5b", "http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/us-russia-ships-join-search-missing-argentine-51570691", "https://uk.news.yahoo.com/hopes-finding-missing-argentine-submarine-104400022.html", "https://www.voanews.com/a/search-argentine-sub/4143020.html", "http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/argentina-chasing-lead-search-missing-submarine-51535765", "https://news.usni.org/2017/11/29/water-entered-missing-argentine-sub-snorkel-detected-explosion?utm_source=USNI+News&utm_campaign=17bd234f41-USNI_NEWS_DAILY&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_0dd4a1450b-17bd234f41-231045397&mc_cid=17bd234f41&mc_eid=2394c94b5b", "https://www.rt.com/newsline/412075-russian-yantar-argentine-submarine/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqDqvKYDv9M", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-42187139"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-11-28 | 0.0 | [["2017-11-29", 0.75], ["2017-11-29", 0.85], ["2017-11-29", 0.5], ["2017-11-29", 0.4], ["2017-11-29", 0.325], ["2017-11-29", 0.25], ["2017-11-29", 0.25], ["2017-11-30", 0.465], ["2017-11-30", 0.465], ["2017-11-30", 0.465], ["2017-11-30", 0.79], ["2017-11-30", 0.68], ["2017-11-30", 0.2], ["2017-11-30", 0.05], ["2017-11-30", 0.05], ["2017-11-30", 0.025], ["2017-11-30", 0.025], ["2017-11-30", 0.015], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.015], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.03], ["2017-11-30", 0.015], ["2017-11-30", 0.04], ["2017-11-30", 0.015], ["2017-11-30", 0.025], ["2017-11-30", 0.1], ["2017-11-30", 0.03], ["2017-11-30", 0.01], ["2017-11-30", 0.01], ["2017-11-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-01", 0.005], ["2017-12-01", 0.005], ["2017-12-01", 0.01], ["2017-12-01", 0.005], ["2017-12-01", 0.01], ["2017-12-01", 0.01], ["2017-12-01", 0.005], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.01], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-02", 0.0], ["2017-12-02", 0.005], ["2017-12-02", 0.015], ["2017-12-02", 0.01], ["2017-12-02", 0.02], ["2017-12-02", 0.03], ["2017-12-02", 0.03], ["2017-12-02", 0.03], ["2017-12-02", 0.04], ["2017-12-02", 0.05], ["2017-12-02", 0.05], ["2017-12-02", 0.05], ["2017-12-02", 0.05], ["2017-12-02", 0.05], ["2017-12-02", 0.045], ["2017-12-02", 0.045], ["2017-12-02", 0.03], ["2017-12-02", 0.03], ["2017-12-02", 0.02], ["2017-12-02", 0.02], ["2017-12-02", 0.015], ["2017-12-02", 0.005], ["2017-12-03", 0.005], ["2017-12-03", 0.0], ["2017-12-03", 0.0], ["2017-12-03", 0.0], ["2017-12-03", 0.0], ["2017-12-03", 0.0], ["2017-12-03", 0.0], ["2017-12-03", 0.0], ["2017-12-03", 0.0], ["2017-12-03", 0.0], ["2017-12-03", 0.0], ["2017-12-03", 0.0], ["2017-12-03", 0.0], ["2017-12-03", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-05", 0.0], ["2017-12-05", 0.0], ["2017-12-05", 0.005], ["2017-12-05", 0.005], ["2017-12-05", 0.01], ["2017-12-05", 0.01], ["2017-12-05", 0.01], ["2017-12-05", 0.01], ["2017-12-05", 0.005], ["2017-12-05", 0.0], ["2017-12-05", 0.0], ["2017-12-05", 0.0], ["2017-12-05", 0.0], ["2017-12-05", 0.0], ["2017-12-05", 0.0], ["2017-12-05", 0.0], ["2017-12-05", 0.005], ["2017-12-05", 0.005], ["2017-12-05", 0.0], ["2017-12-06", 0.0], ["2017-12-06", 0.01], ["2017-12-06", 0.01], ["2017-12-06", 0.0], ["2017-12-06", 0.0], ["2017-12-06", 0.0], ["2017-12-06", 0.0], ["2017-12-06", 0.0], ["2017-12-06", 0.0], ["2017-12-06", 0.0], ["2017-12-06", 0.0], ["2017-12-06", 0.0], ["2017-12-06", 0.0], ["2017-12-06", 0.0], ["2017-12-06", 0.0], ["2017-12-07", 0.0], ["2017-12-07", 0.0], ["2017-12-07", 0.0], ["2017-12-07", 0.0], ["2017-12-07", 0.0], ["2017-12-07", 0.0], ["2017-12-07", 0.0], ["2017-12-07", 0.0], ["2017-12-07", 0.0], ["2017-12-07", 0.0], ["2017-12-07", 0.0], ["2017-12-07", 0.0], ["2017-12-07", 0.0], ["2017-12-08", 0.0], ["2017-12-08", 0.0], ["2017-12-08", 0.0], ["2017-12-08", 0.0], ["2017-12-08", 0.0], ["2017-12-08", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/759 | True |
2017-12-06 | Will an individual hack of Bitcoin resulting in the theft of $10,000,000 USD or more occur in December 2017? | binary | On November 21, 2017, the company behind the Bitcoin cryptocurrency "tether" announced a hack resulting in a theft valued at $31,000,000 USD that was widely reported in the media (<a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-21/bitcoin-falls-after-31-million-theft-of-cryptocurrency-tether"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href = "https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/21/bitcoin-rebounds-to-all-time-high-shrugs-off-cryptocurrency-hack.html"target="_blank">CNBC</a>). The question will resolve as "yes" if a credible media outlet (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters) reports an additional, separate Bitcoin hacking event valued at $10,000,000 or more during the period of interest.
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<hr>
| 2017-12-12 | gjopen | ["https://twitter.com/Alpha_Miner/status/938509346601820160", "https://www.cnet.com/news/bitcoin-exchange-nicehash-loses-millions-to-hackers/", "http://money.cnn.com/2017/12/07/technology/nicehash-bitcoin-theft-hacking/index.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/27/technology/bitcoin-price-10000.html?emc=edit_mbe_20171128&nl=morning-briefing-europe&nlid=77825025&te=1&_r=1", "https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/dec/07/bitcoin-64m-cryptocurrency-stolen-hack-attack-marketplace-nicehash-passwords"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-11-29 | 1.0 | [["2017-11-29", 0.01], ["2017-11-29", 0.08], ["2017-11-29", 0.04], ["2017-11-29", 0.075], ["2017-11-29", 0.405], ["2017-11-29", 0.66], ["2017-11-30", 0.66], ["2017-11-30", 0.335], ["2017-11-30", 0.005], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.005], ["2017-11-30", 0.03], ["2017-11-30", 0.03], ["2017-11-30", 0.05], ["2017-12-01", 0.05], ["2017-12-01", 0.05], ["2017-12-01", 0.05], ["2017-12-01", 0.05], ["2017-12-01", 0.03], ["2017-12-01", 0.03], ["2017-12-02", 0.01], ["2017-12-02", 0.03], ["2017-12-02", 0.05], ["2017-12-02", 0.01], ["2017-12-02", 0.01], ["2017-12-03", 0.005], ["2017-12-03", 0.005], ["2017-12-03", 0.0], ["2017-12-03", 0.005], ["2017-12-04", 0.005], ["2017-12-04", 0.005], ["2017-12-04", 0.01], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-05", 0.0], ["2017-12-05", 0.0], ["2017-12-06", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/797 | True |
2017-10-01 | Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?
| binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2017 and will be resolved in July 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Burundi from July 2017 through June 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this.
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<hr>
This question closed as 'No', with resolutions further detailed in <a href = "https://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2018/08/01/early-warning-project-question-resolutions-july-1-2017-june-30-2018/"target="_blank">this GJ Open blog post written by EWP</a>.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| 2019-12-09 | gjopen | ["https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-29/rebel-group-vows-to-step-up-attacks-against-burundi-s-government", "https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2017-07-04/burundi-authorities-purging-army-on-ethnic-lines-rights-group"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-06-30 | 0.0 | [["2017-06-30", 0.01], ["2017-06-30", 0.25], ["2017-07-01", 0.125], ["2017-07-01", 0.0], ["2017-07-01", 0.005], ["2017-07-01", 0.01], ["2017-07-01", 0.01], ["2017-07-01", 0.0], ["2017-07-02", 0.0], ["2017-07-02", 0.05], ["2017-07-02", 0.05], ["2017-07-03", 0.05], ["2017-07-03", 0.015], ["2017-07-03", 0.015], ["2017-07-04", 0.015], ["2017-07-04", 0.0], ["2017-07-04", 0.0], ["2017-07-04", 0.0], ["2017-07-04", 0.0], ["2017-07-04", 0.0], ["2017-07-05", 0.0], ["2017-07-05", 0.075], ["2017-07-05", 0.075], ["2017-07-06", 0.075], ["2017-07-06", 0.075], ["2017-07-07", 0.075], ["2017-07-07", 0.075], ["2017-07-08", 0.075], ["2017-07-09", 0.0], ["2017-07-09", 0.0], 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2016-03-31 | Before April 2016, will the French Army or Foreign Legion deploy combat troops to fight the Islamic State on the ground in Syria or Iraq? | binary | After the November attacks in Paris, President Francois Hollande said that France is "at war" with the Islamic State and the French military intensified air strikes on IS targets in Syria (<a href = "http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/619784/Hollande-France-war-ISIS-Paris-attacks" target = "_blank">Daily Express</a>, <a href ="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/paris-attacks-french-official-massive-airstrikes-destroy-2-jihadi-sites-in-syria/" target = "_blank">CBS News</a>).
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<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/77-before-1-august-2016-will-any-nato-member-invoke-article-4-or-article-5-in-response-to-actions-taken-by-isis" target = "_blank">Before 1 August 2016, will any NATO members invoke Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by ISIS?</a> | 2016-04-01 | gjopen | ["http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2016/03/05/453896/Syria-France-Ceasefire-Terrorists-Colmain", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/14/gitrep-13mar16pm/", "http://www.voanews.com/content/sixty-five-hundred-coalition-troops-in-iraq-us-wants-more/3172721.html", "http://www.janes.com/article/58361/french-conduct-first-night-air-to-air-helicopter-refuelling", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-libya-security-france-idUSKCN0VX1C3?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews", "https://www.quora.com/Why-should-you-never-fight-a-land-war-in-Asia", "http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/22/isis-knew-just-where-to-hit-these-u-s-marines.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mali-attacks-idUSKCN0W42G2", "https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/russia-france-moscows-motives-warming-relations", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/01/gitrep-31mar16pm/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-islamic-state-is-degraded-but-far-from-being-destroyed/2016/03/08/bc0590fe-e56e-11e5-b0fd-073d5930a7b7_story.html", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/166752", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/05/manual-category-assignment-work-in-progress/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/126530", "http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/03/02/u-s-snags-key-isis-leader-as-fight-for-mosul-gets-underway/", "http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/isis-libya-french-special-forces-operating-secret-ground-war-against-daesh-1545759", "http://sputniknews.com/europe/20160227/1035468671/france-syria-ceasefire.html", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/19/gitrep-18mar16pm/", "https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/west-moves-discreetly-libya", "http://rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iraq/200120163", "http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2016/03/french-special-forces-target-al-qaeda-commanders-in-mali.php", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/12197932/Fingerprints-of-Paris-attacks-fugitive-Salah-Abdeslam-found-in-raided-Brussels-flat.html", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9mTlnrXFAXE", "http://www.france24.com/en/20160225-france-secret-war-libya-islamic-state-group", "http://bigstory.ap.org/urn:publicid:ap.org:bd88bf382b7946ffb9787580e0eb6327"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2015-12-08 | 0.0 | [["2015-12-08", 0.455], ["2015-12-08", 0.4], ["2015-12-08", 0.5], ["2015-12-08", 0.3], ["2015-12-08", 0.315], ["2015-12-08", 0.5], ["2015-12-09", 0.53], ["2015-12-09", 0.6], ["2015-12-09", 0.6], ["2015-12-09", 0.6], ["2015-12-09", 0.6], ["2015-12-09", 0.575], ["2015-12-09", 0.55], ["2015-12-09", 0.55], ["2015-12-09", 0.55], ["2015-12-09", 0.55], ["2015-12-10", 0.53], ["2015-12-10", 0.53], 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2018-04-01 | Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?
| binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Philippines from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as Yes. (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/EWPJan2018Dec2018"target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a>)
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. | 2019-12-09 | gjopen | ["https://themoscowtimes.com/news/state-run-news-station-accused-of-making-up-child-crucifixion-37289", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/02/philippines-president-duterte-drugs-war-death-squads", "https://www.elsaelsa.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/jaw-drop.jpg", "http://news.abs-cbn.com/news/01/23/18/drug-war-death-toll-nears-4000-says-pnp", "https://www.hrw.org/news/2018/01/18/philippines-dutertes-drug-war-claims-12000-lives", "https://www.google.com/amp/www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2017/08/thousands-demand-killings-duterte-drug-war-170821124440845.html", "https://www.voanews.com/a/philippine-war-against-muslims-over-but-issues-remain/4085246.html", "https://www.hrw.org/report/2017/03/02/license-kill/philippine-police-killings-dutertes-war-drugs", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/31/teenage-girl-made-up-migrant-claim-that-caused-uproar-in-germany"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-12-28 | 1.0 | [["2017-12-28", 1.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.175], ["2017-12-29", 0.3], ["2017-12-29", 0.125], ["2017-12-29", 0.1], ["2017-12-29", 0.01], ["2017-12-29", 0.03], ["2017-12-29", 0.075], ["2017-12-29", 0.1], ["2017-12-29", 0.1], ["2017-12-29", 0.08], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.015], ["2017-12-31", 0.005], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.03], ["2017-12-31", 0.03], ["2017-12-31", 0.03], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2018-01-01", 0.03], ["2018-01-01", 0.05], ["2018-01-01", 0.05], ["2018-01-01", 0.05], ["2018-01-01", 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["2018-02-08", 0.03], ["2018-02-08", 0.03], ["2018-02-09", 0.03], ["2018-02-09", 0.03], ["2018-02-10", 0.04], ["2018-02-10", 0.04], ["2018-02-11", 0.04], ["2018-02-11", 0.04], ["2018-02-11", 0.04], ["2018-02-11", 0.04], ["2018-02-11", 0.05], ["2018-02-11", 0.05], ["2018-02-12", 0.05], ["2018-02-12", 0.05], ["2018-02-12", 0.05], ["2018-02-12", 0.05], ["2018-02-12", 0.05], ["2018-02-13", 0.05], ["2018-02-13", 0.05], ["2018-02-13", 0.05], ["2018-02-13", 0.05], ["2018-02-14", 0.05], ["2018-02-15", 0.05], ["2018-02-15", 0.05], ["2018-02-15", 0.05], ["2018-02-16", 0.05], ["2018-02-16", 0.05], ["2018-02-16", 0.04], ["2018-02-16", 0.04], ["2018-02-16", 0.05], ["2018-02-17", 0.05], ["2018-02-17", 0.05], ["2018-02-17", 0.05], ["2018-02-18", 0.05], ["2018-02-18", 0.05], ["2018-02-19", 0.05], ["2018-02-19", 0.05], ["2018-02-20", 0.05], ["2018-02-20", 0.05], ["2018-02-20", 0.05], ["2018-02-20", 0.05], ["2018-02-21", 0.05], ["2018-02-21", 0.05], ["2018-02-21", 0.05], ["2018-02-21", 0.05], ["2018-02-21", 0.05], ["2018-02-21", 0.05], ["2018-02-22", 0.05], ["2018-02-22", 0.05], ["2018-02-23", 0.05], ["2018-02-23", 0.05], ["2018-02-24", 0.05], ["2018-02-24", 0.05], ["2018-02-24", 0.05], ["2018-02-24", 0.05], ["2018-02-25", 0.05], ["2018-02-25", 0.05], ["2018-02-25", 0.05], ["2018-02-25", 0.05], ["2018-02-25", 0.05], ["2018-02-25", 0.05], ["2018-02-26", 0.05], ["2018-02-26", 0.05], ["2018-02-26", 0.05], ["2018-02-27", 0.05], ["2018-02-27", 0.05], ["2018-02-27", 0.05], ["2018-02-28", 0.05], ["2018-02-28", 0.05], ["2018-02-28", 0.05], ["2018-02-28", 0.05], ["2018-02-28", 0.05], ["2018-03-01", 0.05], ["2018-03-01", 0.05], ["2018-03-01", 0.05], ["2018-03-01", 0.05], ["2018-03-02", 0.05], ["2018-03-02", 0.05], ["2018-03-03", 0.05], ["2018-03-03", 0.05], ["2018-03-03", 0.05], ["2018-03-03", 0.05], ["2018-03-03", 0.05], ["2018-03-03", 0.05], ["2018-03-03", 0.05], ["2018-03-03", 0.05], ["2018-03-04", 0.05], ["2018-03-04", 0.05], ["2018-03-04", 0.05], ["2018-03-05", 0.05], 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["2018-03-18", 0.05], ["2018-03-18", 0.05], ["2018-03-18", 0.05], ["2018-03-19", 0.05], ["2018-03-19", 0.05], ["2018-03-20", 0.05], ["2018-03-20", 0.05], ["2018-03-20", 0.05], ["2018-03-20", 0.05], ["2018-03-21", 0.05], ["2018-03-22", 0.05], ["2018-03-22", 0.05], ["2018-03-22", 0.05], ["2018-03-23", 0.05], ["2018-03-23", 0.05], ["2018-03-23", 0.05], ["2018-03-23", 0.05], ["2018-03-24", 0.05], ["2018-03-25", 0.05], ["2018-03-25", 0.05], ["2018-03-25", 0.05], ["2018-03-26", 0.05], ["2018-03-27", 0.05], ["2018-03-27", 0.05], ["2018-03-28", 0.05], ["2018-03-28", 0.05], ["2018-03-29", 0.05], ["2018-03-29", 0.045], ["2018-03-29", 0.045], ["2018-03-30", 0.045], ["2018-03-30", 0.045], ["2018-03-30", 0.045], ["2018-03-30", 0.045], ["2018-03-30", 0.045], ["2018-03-31", 0.045], ["2018-04-01", 0.045], ["2018-04-01", 0.045], ["2018-04-01", 0.05], ["2018-04-01", 0.05]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/830 | True |
2017-07-01 | Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia? | binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Ethiopia from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ Open</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on other questions in this challenge: <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/16-early-warning-project-2017-2018"target = "_blank">Early Warning Project 2017 - 2018</a></sub>
This question was closed as no (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/ewp"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| 2019-12-05 | gjopen | ["http://www.acleddata.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/ACLED_Africa_Country-Reports_Ethiopia_June-2017_pdf.pdf", "https://theglobalobservatory.org/2017/06/ethiopia-protests-oromo-addis-ababa-master-plan/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-03-31 | 0.0 | [["2017-03-31", 0.25], ["2017-03-31", 0.04], ["2017-03-31", 0.045], ["2017-03-31", 0.525], ["2017-03-31", 0.5], ["2017-03-31", 0.95], ["2017-03-31", 0.15], ["2017-03-31", 0.075], ["2017-04-01", 0.1], ["2017-04-01", 0.1], ["2017-04-01", 0.1], ["2017-04-01", 0.1], ["2017-04-01", 0.125], ["2017-04-01", 0.195], ["2017-04-01", 0.245], ["2017-04-01", 0.24], ["2017-04-01", 0.2], ["2017-04-02", 0.24], ["2017-04-02", 0.22], ["2017-04-02", 0.22], ["2017-04-02", 0.22], ["2017-04-02", 0.22], ["2017-04-02", 0.2], ["2017-04-02", 0.17], ["2017-04-03", 0.11], ["2017-04-03", 0.065], ["2017-04-03", 0.05], ["2017-04-03", 0.05], ["2017-04-03", 0.05], ["2017-04-03", 0.05], ["2017-04-04", 0.05], ["2017-04-04", 0.05], 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0.02], ["2017-06-23", 0.02], ["2017-06-23", 0.02], ["2017-06-23", 0.02], ["2017-06-24", 0.02], ["2017-06-24", 0.02], ["2017-06-25", 0.02], ["2017-06-25", 0.02], ["2017-06-26", 0.02], ["2017-06-26", 0.02], ["2017-06-26", 0.02], ["2017-06-27", 0.02], ["2017-06-28", 0.02], ["2017-06-29", 0.02], ["2017-06-29", 0.02], ["2017-06-29", 0.02], ["2017-06-29", 0.02], ["2017-06-30", 0.02], ["2017-06-30", 0.02], ["2017-07-01", 0.02], ["2017-07-01", 0.02]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/456 | True |
2019-01-01 | Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines? | binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and will be resolved in October 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in the Philippines from October 2018 to September 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples
" target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJO's FAQ on forecasting questions like this..<p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. For more information on the resolution of this EWP question and its companion questions, see "<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpoct18sep19#" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Early Warning Project Question Resolutions: October 1, 2018-September 30, 2019</a>."</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2020-01-05 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2018-09-28 | 1.0 | [["2018-09-29", 0.1], ["2018-09-29", 0.05], ["2018-09-29", 0.05], ["2018-09-29", 0.025], ["2018-09-29", 0.025], ["2018-09-29", 0.05], ["2018-09-30", 0.025], ["2018-09-30", 0.05], ["2018-10-01", 0.05], ["2018-10-01", 0.025], ["2018-10-01", 0.05], ["2018-10-03", 0.05], ["2018-10-04", 0.025], ["2018-10-06", 0.035], ["2018-10-06", 0.05], ["2018-10-07", 0.05], ["2018-10-07", 0.025], ["2018-10-09", 0.025], ["2018-10-12", 0.02], ["2018-10-13", 0.025], ["2018-10-14", 0.01], ["2018-10-15", 0.01], ["2018-10-16", 0.01], ["2018-10-20", 0.01], ["2018-10-22", 0.01], ["2018-10-23", 0.01], ["2018-10-25", 0.01], ["2018-10-28", 0.01], ["2018-10-28", 0.015], ["2018-10-29", 0.02], ["2018-10-30", 0.02], ["2018-10-30", 0.02], ["2018-10-30", 0.02], ["2018-11-06", 0.02], ["2018-11-06", 0.01], ["2018-11-08", 0.01], ["2018-11-08", 0.01], ["2018-11-09", 0.01], ["2018-11-10", 0.01], ["2018-11-10", 0.01], ["2018-11-12", 0.01], ["2018-11-15", 0.01], ["2018-11-15", 0.01], ["2018-11-15", 0.01], ["2018-11-16", 0.015], ["2018-11-16", 0.015], ["2018-11-16", 0.015], ["2018-11-19", 0.015], ["2018-11-19", 0.065], ["2018-11-19", 0.065], ["2018-11-20", 0.075], ["2018-11-21", 0.075], ["2018-11-25", 0.075], ["2018-11-27", 0.075], ["2018-11-28", 0.135], ["2018-11-29", 0.135], ["2018-11-30", 0.135], ["2018-12-03", 0.18], ["2018-12-08", 0.18], ["2018-12-09", 0.135], ["2018-12-09", 0.135], ["2018-12-09", 0.135], ["2018-12-13", 0.135], ["2018-12-13", 0.135], ["2018-12-14", 0.135], ["2018-12-16", 0.11], ["2018-12-19", 0.16], ["2018-12-20", 0.16], ["2018-12-23", 0.13], ["2018-12-23", 0.13], ["2018-12-24", 0.13], ["2018-12-27", 0.075], ["2018-12-28", 0.05], ["2018-12-30", 0.05], ["2018-12-31", 0.05], ["2018-12-31", 0.05], ["2019-01-01", 0.05]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1021 | True |
2016-03-31 | Will Vladimir Putin attend the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, DC, in March 2016? | binary | <img height="1" width="1" style="display:none" src="https://www.facebook.com/tr?id=570990896342688&ev=PageView&noscript=1"/>Russia announced in 2014 that it would not participate in the 2016 Nuclear Security Summit, citing concerns that its views would be ignored (<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/russia-to-skip-nuclear-security-summit-scheduled-for-2016-in-washington/2014/11/05/1daa5bca-6535-11e4-bb14-4cfea1e742d5_story.html" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/05/us-nuclear-security-usa-russia-idUSKBN0IP24K20141105#Sc1Fjm4VvmKvV2Ld.97" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). For further reading on Russian relations with the rest of the world, see <a href="http://www.theworldin.com/article/10470" target="_blank">The World in 2016</a> and <a href="http://www.economist.com/topics/russia" target="_blank"><i>The Economist</i></a>. The summit is scheduled for 31 March - 1 April 2016.
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"http://russialist.org/russia-to-take-no-part-in-nuclear-security-summit-in-washington-foreign-ministry/", "http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/us-should-provide-arms-military-aid-to-ukraine-eight-ex-officials-say", "http://observer.com/2016/02/welcome-to-cold-war-2-0/", "http://www.nss2016.org/attending-delegations/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/russia-to-skip-nuclear-security-summit-scheduled-for-2016-in-washington/2014/11/05/1daa5bca-6535-11e4-bb14-4cfea1e742d5_story.html", "http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-not-attending--nuclear-summit/27485448.html", "http://rbth.com/news/2016/01/13/ministry-russia-to-take-no-part-in-nuclear-security-summit-in-washington_558903", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/98916", "http://sputniknews.com/politics/20160113/1033046123/russia-nuclear-summit.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/91312", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/05/manual-category-assignment-work-in-progress/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/93570", "http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/14343/will-russia-make-nuclear-security-next-victim-of-ukraine-crisis", "http://sputniknews.com/politics/20160113/1033046123/russia-nuclear-summit.html#ixzz3zok9a59U", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-wFKNy0MZQ", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/27/gitrep-27mar16pm/", "http://sputniknews.com/politics/20160323/1036839916/putin-nuclear-security-summit.html", "https://static1.squarespace.com/static/568be36505f8e2af8023adf7/t/56fa921b20c6476d4a1f5f14/1459261981699/Heads-of-Delegation+.pdf"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2015-11-17 | 0.0 | [["2015-11-17", 0.18], ["2015-11-17", 0.18], ["2015-11-17", 0.2], ["2015-11-18", 0.15], ["2015-11-18", 0.12], ["2015-11-18", 0.15], ["2015-11-18", 0.15], ["2015-11-18", 0.15], ["2015-11-18", 0.15], ["2015-11-18", 0.15], ["2015-11-19", 0.15], ["2015-11-19", 0.15], ["2015-11-19", 0.15], ["2015-11-19", 0.15], ["2015-11-19", 0.15], 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2020-01-01 | Before 1 January 2020, will any EU member state besides the UK set a date for a referendum on leaving the EU or the eurozone? | binary | The EU continues to face a number of challenges, including populism and debt crises in a number of member states (<a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/11/donald-tusk-warnspoland-could-hold-brexit-style-eu-referendum/" target="_blank">The Telegraph</a>, <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/01/30/svexit-or-huxit-how-another-country-could-follow-the-uk-out-of-the-eu/" target="_blank">The London School of Economics</a>, <a href="http://www.ekathimerini.com/226286/article/ekathimerini/business/eiu-warns-grexit-still-a-threat" target="_blank">Ekathimerini</a>, <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/italy-election-brings-back-existential-threat-to-eurozone-analyst-react-to-sundays-vote-2018-03-05" target="_blank">Marketwatch</a>). The referendum date is immaterial to the question.
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["2019-12-25", 0.0], ["2019-12-27", 0.0], ["2019-12-29", 0.0], ["2019-12-30", 0.0], ["2019-12-30", 0.0], ["2019-12-31", 0.0], ["2020-01-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1093 | True |
2018-01-01 | Will the S&P 500 fall 20% or more in 2017? | binary | This question will close as "yes" if any end-of-day closing value of the S&P 500 is at least 20% lower than the highest recorded closing value of the index in 2017 up to that date. Outcome will be determined by comparing the end-of-day closing values reported by Bloomberg (<a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SPX:IND" target="_blank"> Bloomberg</a>).
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<hr>
</hr>
The S&P 500 did not fall 20% or more in 2017. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2017.
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<hr>
| 2018-01-08 | gjopen | ["https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/capital_markets/ycfaq.html#Q1", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-10/nobel-economist-thaler-says-he-s-nervous-about-stock-market", "http://www.moneychimp.com/features/monthly_returns.htm", "http://www.cboe.com/micro/buywrite/dailypricehistory.xls", "https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/meanreversion.asp", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-29/goldman-warns-highest-valuations-since-1900-mean-pain-is-coming", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-trump-asia-japan/trump-says-japan-would-shoot-north-korean-missiles-out-of-sky-if-it-bought-u-s-weaponry-idUSKBN1D602F", "http://www.investopedia.com/news/inverted-yield-curve-guide-recession/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/589154", "https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/29/david-stockman-tax-reform-plan-is-pipe-dream-stocks-to-plunge-40-70-percent.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/586785", "https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/05/inverted-yield-curve-predicting-coming-recession-commentary.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Flash_Crash", "https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-bonds/treasuries-u-s-two-year-yields-touch-9-year-high-curve-flattening-resumes-idUSL1N1NJ0RR", "http://www.livemint.com/Money/T1DfQsEOYivkMu49el8eoN/Nikkei-crash-Japans-worst-stock-market-slumps.html", "https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/capital_markets/Prob_Rec.pdf", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-13/the-u-s-yield-curve-is-flattening-and-here-s-why-it-matters", "http://money.cnn.com/2017/11/26/investing/stocks-week-ahead-sp-500/", "https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/25/classic-theory-predicts-rally-then-huge-drop-for-the-sp-500-technician.html", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-weekahead/tax-loss-selling-to-pressure-2017s-losers-in-december-idUSKBN1E22AZ", "https://www.reuters.com/video/2017/10/10/dow-hits-record-high?videoId=372708621&videoChannel=5", "https://www.clevelandfed.org/en/our-research/indicators-and-data/yield-curve-and-gdp-growth.aspx", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-kaplan/feds-kaplan-says-low-10-year-yield-an-ominous-sign-idUSKBN1CG005?il=0", "http://time.com/money/4818790/stock-market-predictions-investors/", "http://fortune.com/2017/03/09/stock-market-sell-bubble/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-02-16 | 0.0 | [["2017-02-16", 0.05], ["2017-02-16", 0.085], ["2017-02-16", 0.125], ["2017-02-16", 0.1], ["2017-02-17", 0.1], ["2017-02-17", 0.08], ["2017-02-17", 0.085], ["2017-02-17", 0.075], ["2017-02-17", 0.175], ["2017-02-17", 0.2], ["2017-02-17", 0.275], ["2017-02-18", 0.215], ["2017-02-18", 0.28], ["2017-02-18", 0.28], ["2017-02-19", 0.215], ["2017-02-19", 0.2], ["2017-02-19", 0.2], ["2017-02-19", 0.25], ["2017-02-19", 0.29], ["2017-02-19", 0.25], ["2017-02-19", 0.25], ["2017-02-19", 0.275], ["2017-02-19", 0.29], ["2017-02-19", 0.27], ["2017-02-20", 0.27], ["2017-02-20", 0.27], 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2017-09-08 | Will the U.S. federal debt ceiling be raised or suspended before 1 December 2017? | binary | <b><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/08/us/politics/hurricane-aid-debt-ceiling.html?mcubz=0" target="_blank">The U.S. debt ceiling has been raised.</a> This question closed as "Yes", with an end date of 8 September 2017.</b>
On 15 March 2017, the U.S. government's suspension of the debt limit expired (<a href = "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/03/16/borrowing-authority-expires-treasury-stops-issuing-debt/99266342/"target="_blank">USA Today</a>). Since then, the U.S. Treasury has undertaken "extraordinary measures" to prevent default (<a href = "http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/27/there-is-no-debt-ceiling-crisis-at-least-for-now.html"target="_blank">CNBC</a>). The Congressional Budget Office estimates that these measures will enable the Treasury to service U.S. debt into the fall (<a href = "https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/115th-congress-2017-2018/reports/52465-federaldebtlimit.pdf"target="_blank">CBO</a>).
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<hr>
| 2017-09-21 | gjopen | ["https://www.popsugar.co.uk/celebrity/Why-Does-Sansa-Have-Littlefinger-Killed-43943804?utm_medium=redirect&utm_campaign=US:GB&utm_source=www.google.co.uk", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-bonds-debtceiling-idUSKBN1A52A5?il=0", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/08/01/debt-ceiling-talks-between-white-house-senate-break-up-with-no-progress/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_debtceiling-1235pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory", "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-hands-too-big-harvey-joke-houston-food-victims-floods-a7926506.html", "https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/293817480131002368", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/18/business/media/bannon-said-to-be-planning-his-return-to-breitbart-news.html?emc=edit_th_20170819&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=77825025", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-budget-ceiling-idUSKCN1B42FS", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_shutdown_in_the_United_States", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-budget-idUSKCN1B41RT", "http://money.cnn.com/2017/08/18/news/economy/debt-ceiling-perils/index.html", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K34m6AaFTg8", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U46di6mKO4s", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/08/21/mcconnell-says-zero-chance-congress-will-fail-to-raise-debt-ceiling/?hpid=hp_hp-cards_hp-card-politics%3Ahomepage%2Fcard&utm_term=.b1786dc6062e", "https://i.pinimg.com/736x/ba/fe/d5/bafed5eb59af440e7baca81f65bd59b9--minion-gif-cute-minions.jpg", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-budget-ryan-idUSKCN1B424F", "https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/us-debt-ceiling-costs-and-consequences", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/08/01/debt-ceiling-talks-between-white-house-senate-break-up-with-no-progress/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-finance-202/2017/08/02/the-finance-202-trump-s-era-of-prosperity-belies-big-debt-limit-problem/5980f59b30fb045fdaef1074/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-23/trump-shutdown-threat-complicates-congress-s-debt-ceiling-plans", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/gop-may-tie-debt-limit-increase-to-veterans-bill-1500050835", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberty_bond#Second_Liberty_Bond_Act", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-24/u-s-rating-under-mnuchin-debt-prioritization-is-topic-of-debate", "http://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-hiltzik-debt-ceiling-20170808-story.html", "https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-debt-ceiling-why-it-matters-past-crises-3305868", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-14/debt-limit-increase-bill-is-said-to-be-voted-on-first-by-senate"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-04-28 | 1.0 | [["2017-04-28", 0.95], ["2017-04-28", 0.965], ["2017-04-28", 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2017-03-26 | Will Leung Chun-ying win the March 2017 election for Chief Executive of Hong Kong? | binary | Leung Chun-ying, the incumbent, is unpopular among democrats and "localists." The Hong Kong chief executive election will be held on 26 March 2017 (<a href="http://www.scmp.com/topics/hong-kong-chief-executive-election-2017" target="_blank">South China Morning Post</a>). In the event that a run-off election is required, the end date of the question will be extended.
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<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/297" target="_blank">martial law in the Philippines</a> or <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/292" target="_blank">anti-government mass protests in the Arab World</a>.</sub>
This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 26 March 2017. Carrie Lam was elected as Hong Kong's Chief executive on Sunday 26 March 2017 (<a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-39396146"target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/a-selection-not-an-election-pro-beijing-committee-picks-loyalist-to-lead-hong-kong/2017/03/26/93c5292a-1055-11e7-b2bb-417e331877d9_story.html?utm_term=.c7617443ff99"target="_blank">Washington Post</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | 2017-03-29 | gjopen | ["http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/2188618-analysis-behind-the-xi-jinping-leung-chun-ying-meeting-at-apec/?utm_expid=21082672-18.dmPUWQm0QDq0pZBHW0FDfA.0&utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fduckduckgo.com%2F", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/09/world/asia/hong-kong-cy-leung-reelection.html", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-38260448", "http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/2053402/embattled-hong-kong-leader-cy-leung-wont-seek-re-election", "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Hong_Kong_Chief_Executive_election,_2017&oldid=751780555#Opinion_polling", "https://www.hongkongfp.com/2016/12/09/breaking-hong-kong-chief-executive-leung-chun-ying-will-not-seek-re-election-in-march/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_Chief_Executive_election,_2017#Opinion_polling", "https://www.hongkongfp.com/2016/11/04/cy-leung-would-beat-pro-beijing-lawmaker-regina-ip-in-hong-kong-leadership-election-says-cuhk-poll/", "https://www.hkupop.hku.hk/english/report/pai2016_hk01/content/freq.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/09/hong-kong-leader-leung-chun-ying-to-step-down-next-year", "https://www.hongkongfp.com/2016/12/09/almost-70-hongkongers-oppose-re-election-cy-leung-democratic-party-poll-suggests/", "http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/hks-chief-executive-rewarded-with-new-post", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-election-economy-idUSKBN16V0CT?il=0", "https://www.hongkongfp.com/2016/11/02/financial-sec-john-tsang-denies-rumour-beijing-discouraged-running-chief-exec/", "https://www.hongkongfp.com/2016/11/21/pres-xi-jinping-fully-endorses-hong-kong-govts-handling-of-oath-taking-row-cy-leung-says/", "http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/hong-kong-leader-cy-leung-says-will-not-run-again/3355058.html", "http://indianexpress.com/article/world/hong-kong-leader-leung-chun-ying-says-will-not-run-for-re-election-4419028/", "http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/hong-kongs-leung-chun-ying-gets-re-election-boost", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-election-idUSKBN16W0WF?il=0", "http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/article/2054236/uncertainty-prevails-hong-kong-after-leung-chun-ying-decides-not-seek", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/hong-kong-leader-c-y-leung-wont-seek-re-election-1481272374", "http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/2045879/cy-leung-faces-uphill-poll-battle-fewer-set-back-him-hong", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/14/opinion/beijing-tightens-its-grip-in-hong-kong-again.html?emc=edit_ee_20161114&nl=todaysheadlines-europe&nlid=70183565&_r=0", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-politics-idUSKBN13Y0NA"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-11-15 | 0.0 | [["2016-11-15", 0.265], ["2016-11-15", 0.18], ["2016-11-15", 0.445], ["2016-11-16", 0.25], ["2016-11-16", 0.24], ["2016-11-16", 0.1], ["2016-11-16", 0.125], ["2016-11-17", 0.15], ["2016-11-18", 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2017-10-01 | Will ACLED record any riot/protest events in Mozambique in October 2017? | binary | The Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) summarizes press reports on conflict and protest events in Africa and parts of Asia. Outcome will be determined by the "Realtime [Month of Interest] All Africa File" found on the Realtime Data page (<a href="http://www.acleddata.com/data/realtime-data/" target="_blank">ACLED</a>). The question will resolve as "yes" if ACLED records any event for which: 'COUNTRY' is the country of interest; 'EVENT_DATE' falls in the period of interest; and 'EVENT_TYPE' is 'Riots/Protests'. The question will be resolved when the relevant data is first released.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub> | 2017-11-07 | gjopen | ["http://allafrica.com/stories/201709210890.html", "http://www.africanews.com/2017/10/05/protests-after-assassination-of-mozambique-mayor-on-day-of-peace/", "http://www.dw.com/pt-002/populares-incendeiam-casa-de-comandante-da-pol%C3%ADcia-no-norte-de-mo%C3%A7ambique/a-40781795", "https://tradingeconomics.com/mozambique/interest-rate", "https://www.iol.co.za/business-report/technology/smses-suspended-in-mozambique-912013", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/589521", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/588760", "http://clubofmozambique.com/news/stray-bullets-police-admit-four-deaths-in-mandimba-niassa/", "http://www.acleddata.com/data/acled-version-7-1997-2016/", "http://www.janes.com/article/74626/convincing-re-election-of-mozambique-s-president-as-ruling-party-leader-signals-party-s-endorsement-of-peace-process", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/588551", "http://allafrica.com/stories/201709220604.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/5855362", "https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2017/10/mozambique-killing-of-anti-corruption-mayor-must-be-investigated/", "http://clubofmozambique.com/news/mob-burns-down-police-commanders-residence-in-northern-mozambique/", "https://www.acleddata.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/ACLED_Codebook_2015.pdf", "https://tradingeconomics.com/mozambique/inflation-cpi", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/572364"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-09-13 | 1.0 | [["2017-09-13", 0.35], ["2017-09-13", 0.45], ["2017-09-13", 0.225], ["2017-09-13", 0.275], ["2017-09-13", 0.275], ["2017-09-13", 0.36], ["2017-09-13", 0.05], ["2017-09-13", 0.05], ["2017-09-13", 0.205], ["2017-09-13", 0.36], ["2017-09-14", 0.45], ["2017-09-14", 0.67], ["2017-09-14", 0.66], ["2017-09-14", 0.71], ["2017-09-14", 0.7], ["2017-09-14", 0.7], ["2017-09-14", 0.7], ["2017-09-14", 0.5], ["2017-09-15", 0.35], ["2017-09-15", 0.35], ["2017-09-15", 0.35], ["2017-09-16", 0.35], ["2017-09-16", 0.45], ["2017-09-16", 0.45], ["2017-09-16", 0.45], ["2017-09-16", 0.5], ["2017-09-16", 0.5], ["2017-09-16", 0.5], ["2017-09-16", 0.6], ["2017-09-16", 0.62], ["2017-09-16", 0.52], ["2017-09-16", 0.59], ["2017-09-17", 0.65], ["2017-09-17", 0.725], ["2017-09-17", 0.725], ["2017-09-17", 0.725], ["2017-09-17", 0.725], ["2017-09-17", 0.725], ["2017-09-18", 0.725], ["2017-09-18", 0.8], ["2017-09-18", 0.8], ["2017-09-18", 0.65], ["2017-09-18", 0.63], ["2017-09-18", 0.63], ["2017-09-18", 0.63], ["2017-09-18", 0.63], ["2017-09-18", 0.605], ["2017-09-18", 0.6], ["2017-09-19", 0.6], ["2017-09-19", 0.6], ["2017-09-19", 0.6], ["2017-09-19", 0.6], ["2017-09-19", 0.6], ["2017-09-20", 0.605], ["2017-09-20", 0.63], ["2017-09-20", 0.65], ["2017-09-20", 0.65], ["2017-09-20", 0.65], ["2017-09-20", 0.65], ["2017-09-21", 0.65], ["2017-09-21", 0.65], ["2017-09-21", 0.66], ["2017-09-21", 0.66], ["2017-09-21", 0.68], ["2017-09-21", 0.67], ["2017-09-21", 0.65], ["2017-09-21", 0.63], ["2017-09-21", 0.66], ["2017-09-21", 0.66], ["2017-09-21", 0.66], ["2017-09-21", 0.65], ["2017-09-21", 0.61], ["2017-09-21", 0.505], ["2017-09-21", 0.45], ["2017-09-21", 0.4], ["2017-09-21", 0.4], ["2017-09-21", 0.4], ["2017-09-21", 0.355], ["2017-09-21", 0.355], ["2017-09-22", 0.355], ["2017-09-22", 0.33], ["2017-09-22", 0.31], ["2017-09-22", 0.31], ["2017-09-22", 0.33], ["2017-09-22", 0.33], ["2017-09-22", 0.33], ["2017-09-22", 0.35], ["2017-09-22", 0.38], ["2017-09-22", 0.39], ["2017-09-22", 0.39], ["2017-09-22", 0.42], ["2017-09-22", 0.44], ["2017-09-22", 0.44], ["2017-09-22", 0.47], ["2017-09-22", 0.47], ["2017-09-22", 0.47], ["2017-09-22", 0.56], ["2017-09-23", 0.47], ["2017-09-23", 0.505], ["2017-09-23", 0.505], ["2017-09-23", 0.505], ["2017-09-23", 0.565], ["2017-09-23", 0.635], ["2017-09-23", 0.635], ["2017-09-23", 0.635], ["2017-09-23", 0.65], ["2017-09-24", 0.65], ["2017-09-24", 0.65], ["2017-09-24", 0.67], ["2017-09-24", 0.67], ["2017-09-24", 0.68], ["2017-09-24", 0.69], ["2017-09-24", 0.675], ["2017-09-24", 0.675], ["2017-09-25", 0.675], ["2017-09-25", 0.675], ["2017-09-25", 0.675], ["2017-09-25", 0.675], ["2017-09-25", 0.675], ["2017-09-25", 0.67], ["2017-09-26", 0.68], ["2017-09-26", 0.7], ["2017-09-26", 0.7], ["2017-09-26", 0.7], ["2017-09-27", 0.68], ["2017-09-27", 0.675], ["2017-09-27", 0.69], ["2017-09-27", 0.69], ["2017-09-27", 0.69], ["2017-09-28", 0.69], ["2017-09-28", 0.69], ["2017-09-28", 0.68], ["2017-09-28", 0.68], ["2017-09-29", 0.69], ["2017-09-29", 0.675], ["2017-09-29", 0.69], ["2017-09-29", 0.7], ["2017-09-29", 0.7], ["2017-09-30", 0.7], ["2017-09-30", 0.69], ["2017-10-01", 0.69], ["2017-10-01", 0.69]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/599 | True |
2020-01-01 | Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea between the military forces, militia, or law enforcement personnel of China and another country before 1 January 2020? | binary | A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, or law enforcement of either side. China has used the People's Liberation Army, Navy, and Air Force, militia, and law enforcement to further its claims in both the South and East China Seas, and some once posed as fishermen (<a href="https://qz.com/1440601/chinese-military-command-monitoring-taiwan-south-china-sea-ordered-war-ready/" target="_blank">Quartz</a>, <a href="http://chinapower.csis.org/maritime-forces-destabilizing-asia/" target="_blank">ChinaPower Project</a>, <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/" target="_blank">The Diplomat</a>, <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2174748/south-china-sea-talks-necessarily-slow-burner-consensus-what" target="_blank">SCMP</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>. </p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2020-01-03 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2018-12-07 | 0.0 | [["2018-12-07", 0.02], ["2018-12-08", 0.075], ["2018-12-08", 0.2], ["2018-12-09", 0.2], ["2018-12-10", 0.1], ["2018-12-11", 0.05], ["2018-12-12", 0.05], ["2018-12-13", 0.05], ["2018-12-13", 0.05], 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2019-05-29 | Will Robert Mueller cease to be Special Counsel before 1 January 2020? | binary | Robert Mueller was appointed to serve as Special Counsel to investigate Russian interference with the 2016 presidential election and related matters by Acting Attorney General Rod Rosenstein in May 2017 (<a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/press-release/file/967231/download" target="_blank">U.S Department of Justice</a>, <a href="http://time.com/person-of-the-year-2018-robert-mueller-runner-up/" target="_blank">Time Magazine</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>. </p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2019-06-24 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2019-01-04 | 1.0 | [["2019-01-04", 1.0], ["2019-01-05", 0.9], ["2019-01-05", 0.97], ["2019-01-05", 0.92], ["2019-01-06", 0.795], ["2019-01-06", 0.79], ["2019-01-06", 0.68], ["2019-01-06", 0.735], ["2019-01-06", 0.575], 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["2019-05-19", 0.82], ["2019-05-19", 0.83], ["2019-05-21", 0.83], ["2019-05-21", 0.83], ["2019-05-21", 0.81], ["2019-05-22", 0.81], ["2019-05-23", 0.83], ["2019-05-24", 0.81], ["2019-05-26", 0.805], ["2019-05-28", 0.805], ["2019-05-29", 0.81], ["2019-05-29", 0.81], ["2019-05-29", 0.81]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1088 | True |
2018-01-01 | Before 2018, will there be a lethal attack on a US military vessel in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, Persian Gulf, or Gulf of Oman? | binary | For the purposes of this question, a lethal attack is one that results in one US fatality. In recent months, the US Navy has had hostile encounters with Iranian naval forces (<a href = "http://www.newsweek.com/its-getting-more-dangerous-us-navy-ships-gulf-511343"target="_blank">Newsweek</a>, <a href = "http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/09/politics/us-iran-warning-shots/"target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href = "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/apr/26/us-navy-ship-warning-iran-vessel-fires-flare-persian-gulf"target="_blank">The Guardian</a>), and has been attacked by Houthi rebels firing missiles from Yemen (<a href = "http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/military/the-intel/sd-me-missiles-mason-20161012-htmlstory.html"target="_blank">San Diego Union Tribune</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
There was no lethal attack on a US military vessel in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, Persian Gulf, or Gulf of Oman. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
| 2018-01-02 | gjopen | ["https://fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/RL32492.pdf", "http://www.nbcnews.com/card/houthi-rebels-use-another-unmanned-boat-bomb-against-saudis-n751651", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-40871025", "https://www.historyguy.com/attacks_on_us_naval_ships.htm", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-us-gulf-tension-idUSKBN1AE0DN", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/15/briefing/mogadishu-iran-north-korea.html", "http://en.alalam.ir/news/1983478", "http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/06/16/white-house-officials-push-for-widening-war-in-syria-over-pentagon-objections/", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/06/qatar-diplomatic-crisis-latest-updates-170605105550769.html", "http://maritime-executive.com/article/saudi-forces-find-more-naval-mines-off-yemen", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-iran-military-idUSKBN1AA1P3"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-05-23 | 0.0 | [["2017-05-23", 0.01], ["2017-05-23", 0.03], ["2017-05-23", 0.01], ["2017-05-23", 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2017-07-01 | Before 1 July 2017, will new federal funding be approved for the California High-Speed Rail Authority's "bullet train" project? | binary | The U.S. Department of Transportation and the state of California have high hopes for the California High-Speed Rail project, commonly known as the 'bullet train'. However, budget questions and construction delays have cast doubt over the project (<a href = "http://www.hsr.ca.gov"target="_blank">California High Speed Rail Authority</a>, <a href = "http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-bullet-cost-overruns-20170106-story.html"target="_blank">LA Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.nationalreview.com/article/444262/california-high-speed-rail-unworkable-money-pit"target="_blank">National Review</a>, <a href = "https://www.fra.dot.gov/Page/P0554"target="_blank">Federal Railroad Administration</a>). Some examples of approval include Congressional authorizations and appropriations, as well as decisions on grants by executive agencies. Funds do not have to be disbursed for the question to close as "yes," they only need to be approved. Funding which was originally approved by the Obama administration will not count to resolve this question.
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<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/376-will-a-u-s-state-enact-a-soda-tax-in-2017"target = "_blank">the US will enact a soda tax in 2017</a> or on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/379-before-1-january-2018-will-the-u-s-federal-aviation-administration-grant-a-waiver-allowing-amazon-to-test-its-unmanned-aerial-vehicles"target = "_blank">the FAA will grant Amazon a waiver to begin testing UAV delivery systems</a>.</sub>
Federal Funding was not approved for the California High-Speed "Bullet Train" initiative. This question was closed as "b) no" with an end date of 30 June 2017.
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<hr> | 2017-07-05 | gjopen | ["https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-joint-resolution/99/text", "https://www.congress.gov/114/bills/s2844/BILLS-114s2844pcs.pdf", "https://www.congress.gov/114/bills/hr5394/BILLS-114hr5394rh.pdf", "http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/Policy-Politics/Japan-s-pension-megafund-to-invest-in-US-infrastructure", "https://www.feinstein.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/press-releases?ID=70E36458-12CA-4298-B28B-F0F2DEB647B9", "http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-20/california-issues-125bn-bonds-bullet-train-despite-trump-threat-withhold-federal-fun", "http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-bullet-train-cash-20161224-story.html", "https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/06/donald-trump-economic-policies/529554/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=170612&utm_campaign=ritholtz", "http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-bullet-train-trump-20170206-story.html", "https://www.fra.dot.gov/Page/P0247", "http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/opinion/editorials/sd-infrastructure-yes-bullet-train-no-20170217-story.html", "https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/PLAW-114publ223/pdf/PLAW-114publ223.pdf", "https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/california/articles/2017-05-22/trump-administration-approves-650m-for-caltrain", "http://www.breitbart.com/california/2017/02/07/republicans-ask-trump-to-block-gov-browns-high-speed-rail-funding/", "http://www.mercedsunstar.com/news/local/community/article152050377.html", "http://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/318324-california-gop-asks-trump-to-halt-high-speed-rail-grants", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/18/us/a-trump-ally-in-congress-warns-his-state-california-to-make-nice.html"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-02-16 | 0.0 | [["2017-02-16", 0.0], ["2017-02-16", 0.0], ["2017-02-16", 0.0], ["2017-02-16", 0.02], ["2017-02-16", 0.025], ["2017-02-16", 0.01], ["2017-02-16", 0.015], ["2017-02-16", 0.01], ["2017-02-16", 0.02], ["2017-02-16", 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2018-01-01 | Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?
| binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 December 2017 and will be resolved in October 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Myanmar from October 2017 through September 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this.
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<hr>
This question was closed as 'No' (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2018/12/06/early-warning-project-question-resolutions-october-1-2017-september-30-2018/"target="_blank">EWP/Good Judgment</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| 2019-12-09 | gjopen | ["https://navalny.feldman.photo/events/63/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/569565", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-journalists/u-n-chief-says-arrest-of-reuters-journalists-shows-erosion-of-press-freedom-in-myanmar-idUSKBN1E8183", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2017/oct/17/drone-footage-shows-rohingya-refugees-entering-to-bangladesh-video", "http://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2017/11/13/tula-toli-rohingya-myanmar-bangladesh-border-clarissa-ward-pkg.cnn", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-rohingya-general/myanmar-army-replaces-general-in-charge-of-rakhine-operation-idUSKBN1DD18S?il=0", "https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/10/17/burma-new-satellite-images-confirm-mass-destruction", "https://www.google.com/search?q=all+images+of+rohingya+villages&rlz=1C1CHZL_enUS740US740&tbm=isch&imgil=UsxO-gjoCyoe9M%253A%253BasU8D5B7oglluM%253Bhttps%", "https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/un-raises-number-of-rohingya-refugees-in-bangladesh-to-537-000-1763336", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/626-between-1-october-2017-and-30-september-2018-will-an-armed-group-from-myanmar-engage-in-a-campaign-that-systematically-kills-1-000-or-more-civilians-in-myanmar/www.bbc.com", "http://www.bbc.com/", "https://theglobalobservatory.org/2017/10/rohingya-crisis-high-on-outrage-short-on-action/", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-38049106", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-42348214", "https://tribune.com.pk/story/1503524/situation-myanmar-textbook-example-ethnic-cleansing-un/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/13/world/asia/myanmar-rakhine-reporters.html?action=click&contentCollection=Asia%20Pacific&module=RelatedCoverage&region=EndOfArticle&pgtyp", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/28/watch-myanmar-rohingya-refugees-continue-stream-bangladesh/", "https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/292-myanmar-s-rohingya-crisis-enters-a-dangerous-new-phase.pdf", "https://clarionproject.org/mass-hindu-graves-linked-rohingya-iislamist-rebels/", "https://medium.com/dfrlab/electionwatch-russia-and-referendums-in-catalonia-192743efcd76"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-09-29 | 0.0 | [["2017-09-29", 1.0], ["2017-09-29", 1.0], ["2017-09-29", 0.875], ["2017-09-29", 0.8], ["2017-09-30", 0.435], ["2017-09-30", 0.51], ["2017-09-30", 0.975], ["2017-10-01", 1.0], ["2017-10-01", 0.95], ["2017-10-01", 0.95], ["2017-10-01", 0.97], ["2017-10-01", 0.595], ["2017-10-01", 0.895], ["2017-10-02", 0.9], ["2017-10-02", 0.8], ["2017-10-02", 0.85], ["2017-10-02", 0.8], ["2017-10-02", 0.8], ["2017-10-02", 0.8], ["2017-10-02", 0.78], ["2017-10-02", 0.76], ["2017-10-03", 0.75], ["2017-10-03", 0.755], ["2017-10-03", 0.675], ["2017-10-03", 0.675], ["2017-10-03", 0.675], ["2017-10-03", 0.675], ["2017-10-03", 0.675], ["2017-10-03", 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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/626 | True |
2017-10-31 | Will the PITF Worldwide Atrocities Dataset record an event perpetrated by a state actor in Somalia (SOM) that starts between 1 October 2017 and 31 October 2017? | binary | The question will resolve as "yes" if the Political Instability Task Force (PITF) Worldwide Atrocities <a href="http://eventdata.parusanalytics.com/data.dir/atrocities.html" target="_blank">Dataset</a> records any event with a start date (Start Day, Start Month, Start Year) in the period of interest, inclusive, for which 'Event Location: Country' is the country of interest, and 'Perpetrators: Perp State Role' is: State Perpetrator; Transnational, State; or Multiple Perpetrators (State and Non-State). Question will be suspended on the last day of the period of interest and resolved when the data is released, typically in the middle of the next month via the .zip file which covers the period of interest.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
Due to a temporary pause in data availability this question will remain closed and unresolved until data becomes available. This is currently expected to be around March 2018 | None | gjopen | ["http://allafrica.com/stories/201710090086.html", "https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/33929/statement-high-representative-vice-p", "http://dlvr.it/PqPWWd", "http://www.acleddata.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ACLED_Conflict-Trends-Report_No.61-September-2017_pdf.pdf", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/588025", "http://uoh-edu.net/", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-somalia-attacks-protests/somalis-defy-police-to-protest-against-deadly-truck-bombings-idUSKBN1CN13E", "http://www.allgalgaduud.net/2017/10/06/somalia-asks-khartoum-to-help-fighting-against-al-shabab/", "http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/somalia-extremists-attack-military-base-kill-10-army-50175801", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/10/turkey-sets-largest-overseas-army-base-somalia-171001073820818.html", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-somalia-security/somalias-top-military-chiefs-resign-no-reason-given-idUSKBN1CH2IA", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-41621660", "https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001254208/mandera-on-high-alert-after-al-shabaab-attack-just-four-kilometres-away-in-bullahawa-somalia", "http://dlvr.it/Pr0SND", "http://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=SOM", "http://allafrica.com/", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/10/massive-car-bomb-blast-rocks-somalia-mogadishu-171014142943624.html", "http://allgalgaduud.com/2017/09/hon-fiqi-slams-states-in-somali-for-cutting-ties-with-qatar/", "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/somalia-mogadishu-bomb-lorry-truck-attack-safari-hotel-dead-al-shabaab-a8001271.html"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-09-06 | Not resolved. | [["2017-09-06", 0.9], ["2017-09-06", 0.0], ["2017-09-06", 0.3], ["2017-09-06", 0.175], ["2017-09-06", 0.05], ["2017-09-06", 0.085], ["2017-09-06", 0.12], 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["2017-10-07", 0.17], ["2017-10-08", 0.17], ["2017-10-08", 0.17], ["2017-10-08", 0.17], ["2017-10-08", 0.17], ["2017-10-08", 0.17], ["2017-10-09", 0.17], ["2017-10-09", 0.15], ["2017-10-10", 0.15], ["2017-10-10", 0.15], ["2017-10-11", 0.15], ["2017-10-11", 0.135], ["2017-10-11", 0.135], ["2017-10-11", 0.135], ["2017-10-12", 0.15], ["2017-10-12", 0.15], ["2017-10-12", 0.15], ["2017-10-12", 0.15], ["2017-10-12", 0.15], ["2017-10-12", 0.15], ["2017-10-13", 0.15], ["2017-10-13", 0.15], ["2017-10-13", 0.125], ["2017-10-13", 0.125], ["2017-10-13", 0.085], ["2017-10-14", 0.07], ["2017-10-14", 0.07], ["2017-10-14", 0.07], ["2017-10-14", 0.085], ["2017-10-14", 0.07], ["2017-10-14", 0.07], ["2017-10-14", 0.07], ["2017-10-14", 0.07], ["2017-10-15", 0.07], ["2017-10-15", 0.07], ["2017-10-15", 0.07], ["2017-10-15", 0.06], ["2017-10-15", 0.06], ["2017-10-16", 0.06], ["2017-10-16", 0.06], ["2017-10-16", 0.07], ["2017-10-16", 0.07], ["2017-10-16", 0.05], ["2017-10-16", 0.05], ["2017-10-16", 0.05], 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["2017-10-26", 0.03], ["2017-10-26", 0.03], ["2017-10-26", 0.03], ["2017-10-26", 0.03], ["2017-10-26", 0.025], ["2017-10-27", 0.025], ["2017-10-27", 0.025], ["2017-10-28", 0.02], ["2017-10-28", 0.02], ["2017-10-29", 0.02], ["2017-10-29", 0.02], ["2017-10-29", 0.02], ["2017-10-29", 0.02], ["2017-10-29", 0.02], ["2017-10-29", 0.02], ["2017-10-30", 0.02], ["2017-10-30", 0.02], ["2017-10-30", 0.02], ["2017-10-30", 0.02], ["2017-10-30", 0.02], ["2017-10-30", 0.02], ["2017-10-30", 0.02], ["2017-10-30", 0.02], ["2017-10-30", 0.02], ["2017-10-30", 0.02], ["2017-10-30", 0.02], ["2017-10-31", 0.02], ["2017-10-31", 0.02], ["2017-10-31", 0.02]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/590 | False |
2018-06-14 | In Minnesota Voters Alliance v. Mansky, will the Supreme Court rule that the state's ban on political apparel at polling places is facially unconstitutional?
| binary | Last year, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 8th Circuit ruled that Minnesota Statute ¤ 211B.11, banning political apparel at the polling place, did not violate the federal constitution (<a href = "http://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/minnesota-voters-alliance-v-mansky/"target="_blank">SCOTUS Blog</a>, <a href = "https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/?id=211b.11"target="_blank">The Office of the Revisor of Statutes, Minnesota</a>). Plaintiffs appealed to the Supreme Court, asserting that the law violates First Amendment protections for free speech. A Supreme Court ruling that the state's ban on political apparel at polling places is as-applied unconstitutional will not count. For more information on what constitutes a "facial" challenge like the one in this case, as opposed to an "as-applied" challenge, see <a href = "http://scholarship.law.wm.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1168&context=wmborj"target="_blank">here</a>. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its current term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as no.
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<hr>
In Minnesota Voters Alliance v. Mansky, the Supreme Court ruled that the state's ban on political apparel at polling places is facially unconstitutional (<a href = "https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/17pdf/16-1435_2co3.pdf"target="_blank">Minnesota vs. Mansky</a>, <a href = "http://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/minnesota-voters-alliance-v-mansky"target="_blank">SCOTUSBlog</a>). This question closed as "yes" with an end date of 14 June 2018.
| 2018-06-15 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2018-02-28 | 1.0 | [["2018-02-28", 0.35], ["2018-02-28", 0.12], ["2018-02-28", 0.06], ["2018-02-28", 0.05], ["2018-03-01", 0.075], ["2018-03-01", 0.05], ["2018-03-01", 0.05], ["2018-03-01", 0.375], ["2018-03-01", 0.375], ["2018-03-01", 0.725], ["2018-03-01", 0.7], ["2018-03-01", 0.7], ["2018-03-01", 0.725], ["2018-03-01", 0.7], ["2018-03-02", 0.7], ["2018-03-02", 0.725], ["2018-03-02", 0.65], ["2018-03-02", 0.65], ["2018-03-02", 0.45], ["2018-03-02", 0.25], ["2018-03-02", 0.185], ["2018-03-02", 0.185], ["2018-03-02", 0.185], ["2018-03-02", 0.185], ["2018-03-03", 0.25], ["2018-03-03", 0.25], ["2018-03-03", 0.25], ["2018-03-03", 0.25], ["2018-03-03", 0.3], ["2018-03-03", 0.35], ["2018-03-03", 0.75], ["2018-03-03", 0.75], ["2018-03-03", 0.75], ["2018-03-03", 0.75], ["2018-03-03", 0.75], ["2018-03-04", 0.8], ["2018-03-04", 0.825], ["2018-03-04", 0.775], ["2018-03-04", 0.825], ["2018-03-04", 0.8], ["2018-03-04", 0.75], ["2018-03-04", 0.75], ["2018-03-04", 0.775], ["2018-03-04", 0.8], ["2018-03-04", 0.8], ["2018-03-04", 0.8], ["2018-03-04", 0.8], ["2018-03-04", 0.825], ["2018-03-05", 0.85], ["2018-03-05", 0.85], ["2018-03-05", 0.85], ["2018-03-05", 0.85], ["2018-03-05", 0.85], ["2018-03-05", 0.825], ["2018-03-05", 0.825], ["2018-03-05", 0.8], ["2018-03-05", 0.8], ["2018-03-05", 0.8], ["2018-03-05", 0.785], ["2018-03-05", 0.8], ["2018-03-06", 0.785], ["2018-03-06", 0.785], ["2018-03-06", 0.785], ["2018-03-06", 0.77], ["2018-03-07", 0.75], ["2018-03-07", 0.76], ["2018-03-07", 0.76], ["2018-03-08", 0.785], ["2018-03-08", 0.785], ["2018-03-08", 0.77], ["2018-03-09", 0.75], ["2018-03-10", 0.75], ["2018-03-10", 0.75], ["2018-03-11", 0.685], ["2018-03-12", 0.685], ["2018-03-12", 0.62], ["2018-03-12", 0.62], ["2018-03-12", 0.61], ["2018-03-13", 0.585], ["2018-03-13", 0.585], ["2018-03-14", 0.585], ["2018-03-15", 0.6], ["2018-03-15", 0.57], ["2018-03-16", 0.57], ["2018-03-16", 0.57], ["2018-03-17", 0.57], ["2018-03-17", 0.585], ["2018-03-18", 0.585], ["2018-03-18", 0.585], ["2018-03-18", 0.57], ["2018-03-18", 0.57], ["2018-03-19", 0.56], ["2018-03-19", 0.585], ["2018-03-19", 0.61], ["2018-03-19", 0.585], ["2018-03-20", 0.57], ["2018-03-21", 0.57], ["2018-03-22", 0.51], ["2018-03-25", 0.45], ["2018-03-25", 0.45], ["2018-03-26", 0.45], ["2018-03-27", 0.5], ["2018-03-27", 0.45], ["2018-03-27", 0.45], ["2018-03-29", 0.425], ["2018-03-31", 0.425], ["2018-03-31", 0.425], ["2018-04-01", 0.4], ["2018-04-01", 0.4], ["2018-04-02", 0.4], ["2018-04-04", 0.4], ["2018-04-05", 0.4], ["2018-04-05", 0.375], ["2018-04-05", 0.375], ["2018-04-05", 0.375], ["2018-04-05", 0.375], ["2018-04-06", 0.4], ["2018-04-06", 0.4], ["2018-04-06", 0.4], ["2018-04-07", 0.4], ["2018-04-07", 0.375], ["2018-04-09", 0.375], ["2018-04-10", 0.375], ["2018-04-12", 0.4], ["2018-04-12", 0.4], ["2018-04-15", 0.35], ["2018-04-16", 0.35], ["2018-04-18", 0.35], ["2018-04-19", 0.35], ["2018-04-21", 0.35], ["2018-04-25", 0.35], ["2018-04-25", 0.35], ["2018-04-26", 0.35], ["2018-04-28", 0.4], ["2018-04-30", 0.4], ["2018-05-01", 0.4], ["2018-05-01", 0.4], ["2018-05-05", 0.4], ["2018-05-06", 0.4], ["2018-05-07", 0.4], ["2018-05-10", 0.4], ["2018-05-12", 0.4], ["2018-05-12", 0.4], ["2018-05-12", 0.4], ["2018-05-13", 0.35], ["2018-05-14", 0.35], ["2018-05-14", 0.35], ["2018-05-14", 0.325], ["2018-05-14", 0.3], ["2018-05-14", 0.3], ["2018-05-15", 0.3], ["2018-05-15", 0.3], ["2018-05-15", 0.3], ["2018-05-16", 0.3], ["2018-05-16", 0.3], ["2018-05-16", 0.3], ["2018-05-16", 0.3], ["2018-05-16", 0.3], ["2018-05-16", 0.3], ["2018-05-17", 0.3], ["2018-05-17", 0.3], ["2018-05-18", 0.3], ["2018-05-19", 0.3], ["2018-05-22", 0.3], ["2018-05-22", 0.325], ["2018-05-23", 0.35], ["2018-05-24", 0.35], ["2018-05-26", 0.35], ["2018-05-26", 0.35], ["2018-05-27", 0.35], ["2018-05-28", 0.35], ["2018-05-30", 0.35], ["2018-06-01", 0.35], ["2018-06-01", 0.35], ["2018-06-03", 0.4], ["2018-06-04", 0.4], ["2018-06-06", 0.4], ["2018-06-07", 0.4], ["2018-06-08", 0.4], ["2018-06-09", 0.4], ["2018-06-11", 0.4], ["2018-06-13", 0.4], ["2018-06-13", 0.35], ["2018-06-14", 0.375], ["2018-06-14", 0.375], ["2018-06-14", 0.425], ["2018-06-14", 0.475], ["2018-06-14", 0.475], ["2018-06-14", 0.475], ["2018-06-14", 0.475]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/893 | True |
2017-11-30 | Before 1 December 2017, will it be announced that Wang Qishan has been elected to another term on the Politburo Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China? | binary | China's National Congress will meet in autumn 2017 to select leaders for the new term. Wang Qishan has served on the Politburo Standing Committee since 2012 (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/02/world/asia/xi-jinping-china-retirement-rules.html" target="_blank">NY Times 3/2/2017</a> , <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/xis-power-play-foreshadows-radical-transformation-of-how-china-is-ruled-1482778917" target="_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/30/world/asia/china-guo-wengui.html" target="_blank">NY Times 5/30/2017</a>, <a href="http://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/research/docs/clm49am.pdf" target="_blank">China Leadership Monitor</a> ).
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<hr>
Wang Qishan was not elected to another term. This questions closed as “b) No,” with and end date of 1 Dec 2017.
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<hr> | 2017-12-04 | gjopen | ["https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/China-s-party-congress-2017/China-s-anti-graft-czar-Wang-Qishan-to-bow-out-party-sources-say", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/602234", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/597677", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/594905", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epochtimes.com#cite_ref-77", "http://mailchi.mp/eurasiagroup/signal-you-in-power-party-in-beijing-crypto-in-cream", "http://www.epochtimes.com/gb/17/10/13/n9730139.htm", "http://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/2116002/xi-jinpings-leadership-reshuffle-begins-meet-pair-about", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/597816", "http://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2017/oct/22/china-president-xi-jinpings-top-aide-may-not-make-it-to-top-body-set-to-retire-1679925.html", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/588348", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-congress-wang/chinas-xi-looks-set-to-keep-right-hand-man-on-despite-age-idUSKBN1CG0JI", "https://macropolo.org/xi-may-ccp-core-will-govern-enduring-core-ideas/", "http://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/2115858/key-points-xis-speech-chinas-communist-party-congress", "http://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/2116284/hes-anti-graft-tsar-about-leave-chinas-top-leadership", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-10/what-one-man-s-fate-says-about-xi-s-plans-to-keep-power-in-china", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/10/china-xi-vows-carry-anti-corruption-crusade-171018045437038.html", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/591779", "http://m.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/2116002/xi-jinpings-leadership-reshuffle-begins-meet-pair-about", "http://www.chinavitae.com/new/index.php?show=range&map=&date1=2017-10-25&date2=2017-10-25&submit=Submit", "http://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/2116411/seasoned-duo-tipped-take-key-jobs-communist-party", "https://qz.com/892208/chinas-president-xi-jinping-now-has-a-dozen-titles-and-counting/", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/25/the-seven-men-who-make-up-chinas-new-politburo-xi-jinping", "https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-322-92494-0_1", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/594905"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-06-13 | 0.0 | [["2017-06-13", 0.65], ["2017-06-13", 0.75], ["2017-06-14", 0.7], ["2017-06-14", 0.67], ["2017-06-15", 0.71], ["2017-06-15", 0.75], ["2017-06-15", 0.75], ["2017-06-15", 0.625], ["2017-06-15", 0.8], ["2017-06-16", 0.8], ["2017-06-16", 0.85], ["2017-06-16", 0.92], ["2017-06-17", 0.92], ["2017-06-18", 0.885], ["2017-06-18", 0.91], ["2017-06-18", 0.88], ["2017-06-18", 0.85], ["2017-06-19", 0.865], ["2017-06-19", 0.865], ["2017-06-20", 0.8], ["2017-06-21", 0.625], ["2017-06-22", 0.565], ["2017-06-22", 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0.0], ["2017-11-13", 0.0], ["2017-11-14", 0.0], ["2017-11-15", 0.0], ["2017-11-17", 0.0], ["2017-11-17", 0.0], ["2017-11-18", 0.0], ["2017-11-19", 0.0], ["2017-11-20", 0.0], ["2017-11-20", 0.0], ["2017-11-20", 0.0], ["2017-11-21", 0.0], ["2017-11-21", 0.0], ["2017-11-22", 0.0], ["2017-11-24", 0.0], ["2017-11-24", 0.0], ["2017-11-26", 0.0], ["2017-11-28", 0.0], ["2017-11-28", 0.0], ["2017-11-28", 0.0], ["2017-11-28", 0.0], ["2017-11-28", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/500 | True |
2017-07-01 | Before 1 July 2017, will Scotland set a date for another referendum on independence from the United Kingdom? | binary | In the United Kingdom's June 2016 referendum on European Union (EU) membership, a majority of voters in Scotland backed the losing side. The United Kingdom's planned exit from the EU has caused some Scottish leaders to call for another vote on independence, less than two years after nearly 56 percent of voters cast ballots against it (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-scotland-idUSKCN0ZA0S2" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/06/scottish-business-leaders-reject-premature-independence-referend/" target="_blank">The Telegraph</a>, <a href="http://www.scotreferendum.com/" target="_blank">Scotland's Referendum</a>).
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<hr>
Scotland has not set a date for another referendum on independence from the United Kingdom. This question closed as "b) no" with and end date of 30 June 2017.
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<hr> | 2017-07-06 | gjopen | ["http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/24/will-general-election-postponed-will-campaigning-start/", "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/scottish-referendum-theresa-may-blocks-second-nicola-sturgeon-independence-bid-latest-a7633131.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/490303", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-election-scotland-idUSKBN18O0N4", "http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/sturgeon-refuses-to-rule-out-working-with-tories-on-councils-1-4425502", "http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-40263711", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-politics-scotland-sturgeon-idUSKBN19I0Z7", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/13/can-nicola-sturgeon-trigger-second-scottish-referendum-vote/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014#2011_SNP_administration", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-scotland-idUSKBN17Q2F4", "http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39982198", "http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-scotland-idUKKBN17U1JK", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-scotland-idUSKCN18A0C4", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/28/new-poll-blow-snp-suggests-tories-set-take-back-key-heartland/", "https://www.ft.com/content/1d9282b8-2b1f-11e7-9ec8-168383da43b7", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-election-talks-idUSKBN18P22H", "http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4442784/Sturgeon-blow-poll-finds-slump-independence-support.html", "http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15366020.Drop_plans_for_second_independence_referendum_or_lose_top_job__Sturgeon_warned/", "http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-scotland-idUKKBN17U0QR", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-election-scotland-idUSKBN18I2SD", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/18/tory-manifesto-no-scottish-independence-referendum-without-public/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum#Timeline", "https://www.pressreader.com/uk/scottish-daily-mail/20170519/281479276348803", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/who-will-win-general-election-2017-latest-polls-odds-tracker/", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/13/jeremy-corbyn-denies-backing-second-scottish-independence-vote"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-07-12 | 0.0 | [["2016-07-12", 0.76], ["2016-07-12", 0.55], ["2016-07-12", 0.2], ["2016-07-12", 0.19], ["2016-07-13", 0.2], ["2016-07-13", 0.25], ["2016-07-13", 0.125], ["2016-07-13", 0.175], ["2016-07-14", 0.2], ["2016-07-14", 0.18], ["2016-07-14", 0.18], ["2016-07-14", 0.18], ["2016-07-15", 0.15], ["2016-07-16", 0.15], ["2016-07-16", 0.15], ["2016-07-17", 0.15], ["2016-07-17", 0.16], ["2016-07-17", 0.16], ["2016-07-17", 0.15], ["2016-07-18", 0.175], ["2016-07-18", 0.17], ["2016-07-18", 0.17], ["2016-07-18", 0.18], ["2016-07-19", 0.18], ["2016-07-20", 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