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2017-04-29 | Before 30 April 2017, will the U.S. lift sanctions imposed on Russia for cyber activity, the annexation of Crimea, or its actions in Eastern Ukraine? | binary | Easing sanctions (e.g. allowing the import of goods from Crimea while retaining the investment ban on Crimea, removing specific individuals or entities from the cyber sanctions list) will not count. The United States imposed sanctions on Russia in March 2014 in response to the annexation of Crimea, in December 2014 in response to its intervention in Eastern Ukraine, (<a href = "https://www.state.gov/e/eb/tfs/spi/ukrainerussia/"target="_blank">US Department of State</a>), and in December 2016 in response to cyber activity involving the U.S. presidential election (<a href = "https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/OFAC-Enforcement/Pages/20161229.aspxt"target="_blank">US Treasury</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
Recommended Questions:
<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/370-before-2018-will-russia-and-cuba-announce-the-reopening-of-the-lourdes-signals-intelligence-center" target="_blank">Before 2018, will Russia and Cuba announce the reopening of the Lourdes Signals Intelligence Center?</a>
<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/222" target="_blank">Before 2018, will Russia officially announce that it is suspending its participation in or withdrawing from the New START treaty?</a>
This question was closed as "no" with end date of 29 April 2017.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | 2017-05-02 | gjopen | ["https://www.voanews.com/a/lawmakers-say-trumps-former-security-advisor-may-have-broken-law/3824989.html", "http://www.statesman.com/news/sign-probes-into-russia-trump-campaign-will-die-down/bzix6oZhal03mR8xXdCvHK/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2017/04/27/top-pentagon-watchdog-launches-investigation-into-money-that-mike-flynn-received-from-foreign-groups/?utm_term=.b0f7f6fe101e", "http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/329522-exxon-seeks-waiver-from-russia-sanctions", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-russia-election-exclusive-idUSKBN17L2N3", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/21/politics/russia-trump-campaign-advisers-infiltrate", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/18/politics/fbi-dossier-carter-page-donald-trump-russia-investigation", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/27/politics/carter-page-civil-rights-violations-cnntv", "http://www.businessinsider.com/april-doss-will-join-senate-intelligence-committee-russia-investigation-2017-4", "http://money.cnn.com/2017/04/21/news/companies/trump-exxon-russia-sanctions", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/19/business/energy-environment/exxon-mobil-russia-sanctions-waiver-oil.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/21/business/energy-environment/treasury-exxon-mobil-sanctions-waiver.html?_r=0", "http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-flynn-lobbying-20170425-story.html", "http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/25/michael-flynn-turkey-russia-237550", "http://www.salon.com/2017/04/22/carter-page-confronts-cnn-report-that-russia-tried-to-use-him-to-infiltrate-trump-campaign/", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-39710527", "http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-73-back-independent-probe-russian-election-interference-n750161", "http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/330612-carl-bernstein-flynn-is-central-to-what-fbi-believes-is-cover", "http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/25/sally-yates-james-clapper-russia-testimony-schedule-237568", "https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-reuters-report-influence-u-s-election-influence-putin/28440730.html", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/25/politics/congress-russia-investigations", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/19/us/politics/carter-page-russia-trump.html?_r=1", "http://www.businessinsider.com/only-28-of-trump-voters-believe-russia-tried-to-influence-the-2016-election-2017-4", "http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/03/how-the-explosive-russian-dossier-was-compiled-christopher-steele", "http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2017/04/11/523416914/russian-spies-go-to-tactics-for-entangling-people-bribery-and-blackmail"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-03-03 | 0.0 | [["2017-03-03", 0.03], ["2017-03-03", 0.03], ["2017-03-03", 0.005], ["2017-03-03", 0.01], ["2017-03-03", 0.0], ["2017-03-03", 0.0], ["2017-03-03", 0.0], ["2017-03-03", 0.0], ["2017-03-03", 0.0], ["2017-03-03", 0.0], ["2017-03-03", 0.0], ["2017-03-03", 0.0], ["2017-03-04", 0.0], ["2017-03-04", 0.0], ["2017-03-04", 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2016-12-31 | Will an Uber self-driving car with a member of the public as a passenger be involved in an auto accident while driving autonomously between 14 October 2016 and 1 January 2017? | binary | This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. Although there were some reports that Uber vehicle was involved in an accident in October (<a href = "http://www.wtae.com/news/selfdriving-uber-involved-in-collision-downtown/42187584"target = "_blank">WTAE Pittsburgh</a>), there was no evidence that there was a passenger in the car or that the vehicle was in autonomous mode. There are no indications of other accidents.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
In the first public test of self-driving cars in the US, Uber recently launched a program where the public can hail and ride in one of the company’s autonomous vehicles (<a href="https://newsroom.uber.com/pittsburgh-self-driving-uber/" target="_blank">Uber</a>, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/11/technology/no-driver-bring-it-on-how-pittsburgh-became-ubers-testing-ground.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>). Each car has two Uber employees seated in the front seats who can take control when needed (<a href="http://www.npr.org/sections/alltechconsidered/2016/09/14/493823483/self-driving-cars-take-to-the-streets-of-pittsburgh-courtesy-of-uber" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/uber-s-self-driving-test-cars-to-be-overseen-by-driver-and-engineer/" target="_blank">Scientific American</a>). However, concerns remain about the safety of these cars at this initial stage of development, especially in light of the recent accidents involving a Tesla Model S (<a href="http://www.theverge.com/2016/6/30/12072408/tesla-autopilot-car-crash-death-autonomous-model-s" target="_blank">The Verge</a>), and a Google self-driving car (<a href="http://qz.com/803122/googles-googl-self-driving-car-crash-on-september-23-landed-its-test-driver-in-the-hospital/" target="_blank">Quartz</a>). For this question to resolve as “yes”, an Uber self-driving car must physically contact another vehicle or object while driving autonomously. Malfunctions that do not result in an accident would not be sufficient to resolve the question (e.g. <a href="http://qz.com/798092/a-self-driving-uber-car-went-the-wrong-way-on-a-one-way-street-in-pittsburgh/" target="_blank">Quartz</a>).
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"https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/355778", "http://www.penndot.gov/TravelInPA/Safety/Documents/2014_CFB_linked.pdf"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-10-14 | 0.0 | [["2016-10-14", 0.82], ["2016-10-14", 0.5], ["2016-10-14", 0.66], ["2016-10-14", 0.075], ["2016-10-14", 0.075], ["2016-10-14", 0.04], ["2016-10-15", 0.05], ["2016-10-15", 0.025], ["2016-10-15", 0.02], ["2016-10-15", 0.02], ["2016-10-15", 0.03], ["2016-10-15", 0.05], ["2016-10-15", 0.05], ["2016-10-16", 0.05], ["2016-10-16", 0.05], ["2016-10-16", 0.04], ["2016-10-16", 0.05], ["2016-10-16", 0.03], ["2016-10-16", 0.04], ["2016-10-16", 0.05], ["2016-10-16", 0.065], ["2016-10-16", 0.05], ["2016-10-16", 0.075], ["2016-10-16", 0.085], ["2016-10-16", 0.07], ["2016-10-16", 0.15], ["2016-10-16", 0.11], ["2016-10-17", 0.07], ["2016-10-17", 0.065], ["2016-10-17", 0.065], ["2016-10-17", 0.05], ["2016-10-17", 0.055], ["2016-10-17", 0.065], ["2016-10-17", 0.06], ["2016-10-17", 0.065], ["2016-10-17", 0.07], 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2018-04-01 | Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?
| binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Sudan from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as No. (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/EWPJan2018Dec2018"target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a>)
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. | 2019-12-09 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-12-28 | 0.0 | [["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.15], ["2017-12-29", 0.125], ["2017-12-29", 0.05], ["2017-12-29", 0.25], ["2017-12-29", 0.02], ["2017-12-29", 0.1], ["2017-12-29", 0.3], ["2017-12-29", 0.125], ["2017-12-29", 0.125], ["2017-12-30", 0.085], ["2017-12-30", 0.085], ["2017-12-31", 0.085], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.02], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.03], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.07], ["2017-12-31", 0.07], ["2017-12-31", 0.07], ["2018-01-01", 0.09], ["2018-01-01", 0.09], ["2018-01-01", 0.09], ["2018-01-01", 0.09], ["2018-01-01", 0.12], 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2016-12-31 | Will Jacob Zuma cease to be president of South Africa before 1 January 2017? | binary | This question was closed a "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
Calls for Zuma to be replaced as president have intensified amidst corruption allegations and a surprise ministerial shakeup which spurred further decline in the South African rand (<a href = "http://www.vox.com/2016/4/12/11408788/zuma-south-africa-crisis" target = "_blank">Vox</a>, <a href = "http://www.theafricareport.com/Southern-Africa/pressure-mounts-on-south-africas-zuma-to-step-down.html" target ="_blank">Africa Report</a>, <a href = "http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/05/jacob-zuma-impeachment-nkandla-scandal-african-national-congress-south-africa" target = "_blank">Guardian</a>, and <a href = "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-11/just-how-vulnerable-is-south-africa-president-zuma-s-position-" target = "_blank">Bloomberg</a>). In the event that Zuma reportedly disappears or flees the capital, the administrator will observe a three-week waiting period, at the end of which the question will close retroactively to the date of his disappearance or exodus. If Zuma returns in the interim, the question will remain open.
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<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/15-will-bashar-al-assad-cease-to-be-president-of-syria-before-1-march-2017" target = "_blank">Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017?</a>
<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/62-will-there-be-a-new-king-of-saudi-arabia-before-1-june-2016" target = "_blank">Will there be a new King of Saudi Arabia before 1 June 2016?</a> | 2017-01-06 | gjopen | ["http://www.theglobeandmail.com//news/world/abruptly-dropped-charges-against-minister-a-fresh-defeat-for-zuma/article32589827/", "http://www.fin24.com/BizNews/how-world-sees-sa-zuma-now-increasingly-vulnerable-after-latest-bombshells-20161018", "http://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2016/11/11/Did-35-ANC-MPs-who-missed-the-Zuma-no-confidence-motion-vote-with-their-feet", "http://www.newsweek.com/jacob-zuma-south-africa-president-survive-anc-voters-522723?rx=us", "http://www.rdm.co.za/politics/2016/10/26/politics-live-anc-leadership-quashed-rebellion-against-zuma", "http://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2016-11-03-explainer-misconceptions-about-a-no-confidence-vote/#.WB53yNR97iw", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/28/world/africa/jacob-zuma-south-africa-anc.html?emc=edit_ae_20161128&nl=todaysheadlines-asia&nlid=77825025", "http://qz.com/825789/state-capture-jacob-zuma-the-guptas-and-corruption-in-south-africa/", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/368222", "http://www.biznews.com/leadership/2016/10/25/south-africans-mobilise-to-save-sa-from-state-capture-can-they-eject-zuma", "http://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2016-11-27-analysis-should-zuma-lose-the-dominoes-would-fall/#.WDu-sNR97iw", "http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/south-africas-jacob-zuma-defeats-no-confidence-vote-in-parliament/articleshow/55359293.cms", "https://www.enca.com/south-africa/anc-nec-called-to-resign", "http://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2016-11-28-the-endgame-zuma-on-the-ropes-as-anc-tactical-manoeuvre-unfolds/#.WDvDP9R97iw", "http://abokifx.com/south-africa-reclaims-spot-africas-second-biggest-economy-business-tech/", "http://www.iol.co.za/news/politics/anc-meeting-extended-zumas-fate-uncertain-2093875", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/388341", "http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/anc-turns-on-zuma-20161126", "http://www.fin24.com/Economy/zuma-days-are-numbered-as-crisis-deepens-20161102", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-37833372", "http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/tell-the-world-its-democracy-zuma-to-ambassadors-20161018", "http://www.amazon.com/Africa-2016-2017-World-Today-Stryker/dp/1475829027/ref=sr_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1478114131&sr=1-2&keywords=africa+the+world+today", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-37845606", "https://www.ft.com/content/d9e72242-a1e1-11e6-82c3-4351ce86813f", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/02/protests-in-pretoria-as-south-africans-call-for-jacob-zuma-to-resign"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-04-19 | 0.0 | [["2016-04-19", 0.475], ["2016-04-19", 0.2], ["2016-04-19", 0.125], ["2016-04-19", 0.15], ["2016-04-19", 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2017-11-30 | Will China execute and/or sponsor a low or higher level cyber attack against networks owned by a US entity between 19 September 2017 and 30 November 2017? | binary | At least part of the attack must occur during the question's open period. The question will be suspended on 30 November 2017 and resolved on 31 January 2018 to allow for delayed reporting. The following levels of cyber attack will all count: Low-Level Cyber Attacks create temporary and/or localized disruption of services that are dependent on networked infrastructure but do not threaten the core functionality of critical infrastructure targets. For example, a series of distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks against banking websites--while widespread--would cause only temporary disruption of Internet access to customer's bank accounts. They would not affect customer account balances or other banking services such as ATM withdrawals, nor would they disrupt the larger financial system, although the affected banks would incur losses because of the mitigation and other costs. Moderate-Level Cyber Attacks create localized, nonpersistent disruption to core functionality of critical services and functions but do not generate substantive systemic or national-level effects. For example, a cyber-attack that disrupted a single power plant for a couple of hours-equivalent to a temporary local power outage from a snow storm-would qualify as a moderate-level cyber attack. High-Level Cyber Attacks disrupt critical infrastructure services and generate substantive systemic or national-level effects over an extended period of time. For example, a cyber attack that reduced oil pipeline transport across a key region and resulted in a spike in national oil prices over the course of a month would qualify as a high-level cyber attack. Catastrophic Cyber Attacks affect the fundamental viability of core government, military, or economic services or functions; or cause significant loss of life or widespread property damage. For example, a cyber attack against critical infrastructures that caused an economic depression would qualify as a catastrophic cyber attack. A US entity can be governmental, commercial, academic, nonprofit or an individual. For the question to resolve as 'yes', the government of China must sponsor or execute the attack. Outcome will be determined by credible open source cybersecurity industry analysis or media reporting (e.g., Crowdstrike, FireEye, ThreatConnect, Symantec, McAfee, Reuters, BBC, AP).
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This IFP has been voided due to conflicting evidence about the cyber attack on the Hudson Institute. Some reports suggest the criteria for this question had been met, meanwhile others indicate that China was not involved and/or that the attack did not cause the website disruption (<a href = "http://freebeacon.com/national-security/think-tank-cancels-talk-chinese-dissident-pressure-beijing/"target="_blank">The Washington Free Beacon</a>, <a href = "https://www.securityweek.com/cyber-attacks-targeted-interests-billionaire-chinese-dissident"target="_blank">Security Week</a>, <a href = "http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/354455-sessions-asks-china-for-answers-on-think-tank-cyberattack"target="_blank">The Hill</a>,
<a href = "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-corruption-tycoon/china-denies-links-to-alleged-cyber-attacks-in-united-states-targeting-exiled-tycoon-guo-idUSKBN1CD0AP"target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-governments-battle-against-fugitive-guo-wengui-spills-into-washington-1507260255"target="_blank">The Wall Street Journal</a>). Without corroborated, credible, open-source evidence on these two issues, the outcome cannot be determined.
| None | gjopen | ["https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-governments-battle-against-fugitive-guo-wengui-spills-into-washington-1507260255", "http://securityaffairs.co/wordpress/65505/malware/china-hackers-reaver-malware.html", "https://www.wired.com/2016/12/obama-russia-hacking-sanctions-china/", "http://freebeacon.com/national-security/fbi-eyes-china-posting-hacked-documents-chinese-dissident/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UIVilRyWzO4", "https://www.justice.gov/opa/press-release/file/1013866/download", "https://www.crowdstrike.com/blog/the-latest-on-chinese-affiliated-intrusions-into-commercial-companies/", "https://www.technologyreview.com/s/602705/the-decline-in-chinese-cyberattacks-the-story-behind-the-numbers/", "http://www.bbc.com/", "http://www.worldtribune.com/fbi-investigating-hack-attack-on-law-firm-defending-top-target-of-chinese-regime/", "https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/exclusive-secret-nsa-map-shows-china-cyber-attacks-us-targets-n401211", "https://www.fireeye.com/content/dam/fireeye-www/current-threats/pdfs/rpt-china-espionage.pdf", "http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/trump-softens-tone-on-north-korea-says-its-time-to-make-a-deal/article/2176973", "https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/sep/25/deloitte-hit-by-cyber-attack-revealing-clients-secret-emails", "http://freebeacon.com/national-security/beijing-suspected-hacking-yacht-owned-chinese-billionaire/", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-corruption-tycoon/china-denies-links-to-alleged-cyber-attacks-in-united-states-targeting-exiled-tycoon-guo-idUSKBN1CD0AP", "https://github.com/CyberMonitor/APT_CyberCriminal_Campagin_Collections/tree/master/2017", "https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/11/09/remarks-president-trump-and-president-xi-china-joint-press-statement", "https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2017/10/30/dave-dewalt-mcafee-fireeye-allegis-capital-cyber.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/607-will-china-execute-and-or-sponsor-a-low-or-higher-level-cyber-attack-against-networks-owned-by-a-us-entity-between-19-september-2017-and-30-november-2017/www.bbc.com", "http://abcnews.go.com/International/opinion-thwart-north-korean-hackers-hold-china-russia/story?id=50990447"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-09-19 | Not resolved. | [["2017-09-19", 0.99], ["2017-09-19", 1.0], ["2017-09-19", 1.0], ["2017-09-19", 0.75], ["2017-09-19", 0.25], ["2017-09-19", 0.01], ["2017-09-19", 0.0], ["2017-09-19", 0.02], ["2017-09-20", 0.01], ["2017-09-20", 0.225], ["2017-09-20", 0.225], ["2017-09-20", 0.225], ["2017-09-20", 0.235], ["2017-09-20", 0.02], ["2017-09-20", 0.02], ["2017-09-20", 0.02], ["2017-09-20", 0.02], ["2017-09-20", 0.02], ["2017-09-21", 0.02], ["2017-09-21", 0.02], ["2017-09-21", 0.02], ["2017-09-21", 0.02], ["2017-09-21", 0.035], ["2017-09-21", 0.065], ["2017-09-21", 0.09], ["2017-09-21", 0.08], ["2017-09-21", 0.08], 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| False |
2018-07-01 | Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?
| binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2018 and will be resolved in April 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Nigeria from April 2018 to March 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples" target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.<p></p><hr><p></p><p>This question closed as No. (<u><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpapril2018mar2019" target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a></u>)</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p> | 2019-05-20 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2018-04-02 | 0.0 | [["2018-04-02", 0.01], ["2018-04-02", 0.35], ["2018-04-02", 0.425], ["2018-04-03", 0.26], ["2018-04-03", 0.06], ["2018-04-03", 0.1], ["2018-04-03", 0.1], ["2018-04-04", 0.1], ["2018-04-04", 0.2], ["2018-04-04", 0.06], ["2018-04-04", 0.2], ["2018-04-04", 0.2], ["2018-04-04", 0.3], ["2018-04-05", 0.1], ["2018-04-05", 0.09], ["2018-04-06", 0.09], ["2018-04-06", 0.07], ["2018-04-06", 0.035], ["2018-04-06", 0.01], ["2018-04-07", 0.01], ["2018-04-07", 0.03], ["2018-04-07", 0.015], ["2018-04-08", 0.015], ["2018-04-09", 0.035], ["2018-04-09", 0.035], ["2018-04-10", 0.065], ["2018-04-11", 0.065], ["2018-04-12", 0.05], ["2018-04-13", 0.05], ["2018-04-15", 0.08], ["2018-04-15", 0.065], ["2018-04-16", 0.045], ["2018-04-16", 0.045], ["2018-04-16", 0.05], ["2018-04-19", 0.05], ["2018-04-19", 0.05], ["2018-04-20", 0.05], ["2018-04-22", 0.05], ["2018-04-25", 0.05], ["2018-04-25", 0.05], ["2018-04-29", 0.05], ["2018-04-29", 0.05], ["2018-05-01", 0.05], ["2018-05-02", 0.045], ["2018-05-02", 0.045], ["2018-05-02", 0.05], ["2018-05-02", 0.05], ["2018-05-03", 0.05], ["2018-05-03", 0.05], ["2018-05-03", 0.05], ["2018-05-06", 0.05], ["2018-05-07", 0.05], ["2018-05-08", 0.05], ["2018-05-08", 0.05], ["2018-05-09", 0.05], ["2018-05-10", 0.05], ["2018-05-11", 0.04], ["2018-05-12", 0.04], ["2018-05-14", 0.04], ["2018-05-14", 0.04], ["2018-05-14", 0.02], ["2018-05-15", 0.025], ["2018-05-15", 0.025], ["2018-05-15", 0.025], ["2018-05-16", 0.025], ["2018-05-17", 0.025], ["2018-05-21", 0.03], ["2018-05-22", 0.03], ["2018-05-22", 0.03], ["2018-05-24", 0.085], ["2018-05-24", 0.085], ["2018-05-26", 0.085], ["2018-05-26", 0.085], ["2018-05-28", 0.085], ["2018-05-30", 0.085], ["2018-05-31", 0.085], ["2018-06-01", 0.085], ["2018-06-02", 0.085], ["2018-06-02", 0.145], ["2018-06-04", 0.145], ["2018-06-08", 0.145], ["2018-06-11", 0.145], ["2018-06-12", 0.14], ["2018-06-13", 0.14], ["2018-06-14", 0.15], ["2018-06-14", 0.15], ["2018-06-15", 0.15], ["2018-06-16", 0.15], ["2018-06-16", 0.15], ["2018-06-17", 0.15], ["2018-06-18", 0.15], ["2018-06-20", 0.15], ["2018-06-22", 0.15], ["2018-06-23", 0.11], ["2018-06-23", 0.125], ["2018-06-23", 0.12], ["2018-06-24", 0.12], ["2018-06-24", 0.145], ["2018-06-26", 0.135], ["2018-06-27", 0.15], ["2018-06-27", 0.15], ["2018-06-27", 0.15], ["2018-06-27", 0.15], ["2018-06-27", 0.15], ["2018-06-27", 0.15], ["2018-06-27", 0.15], ["2018-06-28", 0.135], ["2018-06-29", 0.135], ["2018-06-29", 0.135], ["2018-06-29", 0.135], ["2018-07-01", 0.135]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/919 | True |
2018-10-01 | Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia? | binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">The EWP</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2018 and will be resolved in July 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Ethiopia from July 2018 to June 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this. | 2019-12-09 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2018-06-27 | 0.0 | [["2018-06-27", 0.09], ["2018-06-27", 0.05], ["2018-06-27", 0.035], ["2018-06-27", 0.01], ["2018-06-27", 0.02], ["2018-06-27", 0.0], ["2018-06-27", 0.04], ["2018-06-28", 0.02], ["2018-06-28", 0.025], ["2018-06-28", 0.02], ["2018-06-28", 0.02], ["2018-06-28", 0.0], ["2018-06-28", 0.0], ["2018-06-29", 0.0], ["2018-06-29", 0.0], ["2018-06-29", 0.0], ["2018-06-29", 0.0], ["2018-07-01", 0.005], ["2018-07-02", 0.005], ["2018-07-02", 0.005], ["2018-07-03", 0.0], ["2018-07-03", 0.01], ["2018-07-03", 0.01], ["2018-07-03", 0.01], ["2018-07-06", 0.01], ["2018-07-06", 0.01], ["2018-07-09", 0.01], ["2018-07-12", 0.01], ["2018-07-15", 0.01], ["2018-07-15", 0.01], ["2018-07-16", 0.01], ["2018-07-16", 0.02], ["2018-07-17", 0.02], ["2018-07-18", 0.02], ["2018-07-19", 0.02], ["2018-07-23", 0.02], ["2018-07-23", 0.01], ["2018-07-24", 0.01], ["2018-07-25", 0.01], ["2018-07-27", 0.01], ["2018-07-29", 0.01], ["2018-07-30", 0.01], ["2018-08-05", 0.01], ["2018-08-09", 0.01], ["2018-08-09", 0.01], ["2018-08-10", 0.015], ["2018-08-12", 0.01], ["2018-08-13", 0.01], ["2018-08-14", 0.01], ["2018-08-16", 0.01], ["2018-08-18", 0.01], ["2018-08-22", 0.01], ["2018-08-23", 0.01], ["2018-08-27", 0.01], ["2018-09-03", 0.01], ["2018-09-05", 0.01], ["2018-09-06", 0.01], ["2018-09-11", 0.01], ["2018-09-11", 0.01], ["2018-09-13", 0.01], ["2018-09-13", 0.005], ["2018-09-15", 0.005], ["2018-09-18", 0.005], ["2018-09-20", 0.01], ["2018-09-22", 0.01], ["2018-09-24", 0.01], ["2018-09-28", 0.01], ["2018-09-29", 0.01], ["2018-09-30", 0.01], ["2018-10-01", 0.01]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/977 | True |
2017-12-08 | Before 1 January 2018, will the United Kingdom and the European Union reach an agreement on payment of the UK's outstanding liabilities to the EU? | binary | Media reports indicate the EU intends to demand the UK to pay a “hefty” bill to cover various commitments the UK made as a member of the EU (<a href = "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/20/eus-chief-negotiator-michelbarnier-wants-tie-down50bn-brexit/"target="_blank">The Telegraph</a>, <a href = "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/britain-will-not-contribute-to-eu-budget-if-no-brexit-deal-is-reached-says-lords-report-a7609526.html"target="_blank">The Independent</a>, <a href = "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/24/eu-politicians-back-brussels-call-for-uk-to-pay-60bn-exit-bill-before-trade-talks"target="_blank">The Guardian</a>) . The question will close when an agreement is reached (e.g., an agreement on a formula to calculate outstanding liabilities (<a href = "http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-budget-idUKKBN15N2AL"target="_blank">Reuters</a>), the disbursement of payment is not required for a "yes" resolution.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
An agreement on payment of liabilities has been reached (<a href = "http://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/32236/15-euco-art50-guidelines-en.pdf"target="_blank">European Council</a>, <a href = "https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/joint_report.pdf"target="_blank">European Council</a>). This question closed as "Yes" with an end date of 8 December.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | 2017-12-18 | gjopen | ["https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/938739138341359617?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fpolitics%2Fblog%2Flive%2F2017%2Fdec%2F07%2Fbrexit-deal-may-varadkar-eu-less-hospitable-for-foreign-talent-after-brexit-says-banking-chief-politics-live%3Fpage%3Dwith%253Ablock-5a2934375483ae06cb81c81", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/11/world/europe/theresa-may-brexit-davis-gove.html", "http://human-brain.org/arguments.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/12/david-davis-has-damaged-trust-in-the-uk-for-brexit-talks-says-verhofstadt", "https://www.ft.com/content/4ebcc00e-dbd4-11e7-a039-c64b1c09b482", "https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/941025535643344896?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December", "https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/1_en_act_communication.pdf", "https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/637927", "https://t.co/6DhDNqSoaS">https://t.co/6DhDNqSoaS</a>", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-11/may-s-fragile-truce-tested-as-brexit-pledges-start-to-unravel", "http://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/32236/15-euco-art50-guidelines-en.pdf", "https://t.co/pwBXxviVQk">pic.twitter.com/pwBXxviVQk</a></p>&mdash", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/637836", "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-divorce-bill-pay-no-trade-deal-philip-hammond-theresa-may-eu-latest-a8095201.html", "https://www.economist.com/news/britain/21732556-despite-big-exit-bill-and-concessions-european-judges-and-irish-border-brexit", "https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/meps-unite-to-accuse-davis-of-undermining-good-faith-in-brexit-talks-a3717596.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/28/uk-and-eu-agree-brexit-divorce-bill-that-could-reach-57bn", "https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/15/theresa-may-applauded-but-brexit-talks-have-many-hurdles-to-overcome.html", "http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-42368096", "http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8039/CBP-8039.pdf", "https://twitter.com/hashtag/Brexit?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Brexit</a>", "http://fortune.com/2017/12/12/brexit-theresa-may-conservative-rebels-vote/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/videos/2017-12-12/eu-warns-u-k-about-reneging-on-brexit-agreements-video", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/09/global-powers-lobby-to-stop-special-brexit-deal-for-uk"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-04-07 | 1.0 | [["2017-04-07", 0.625], ["2017-04-07", 0.19], ["2017-04-07", 0.15], ["2017-04-08", 0.11], ["2017-04-08", 0.02], ["2017-04-08", 0.02], ["2017-04-08", 0.035], ["2017-04-09", 0.02], ["2017-04-09", 0.02], ["2017-04-09", 0.02], ["2017-04-09", 0.035], ["2017-04-09", 0.05], ["2017-04-10", 0.09], ["2017-04-10", 0.1], ["2017-04-10", 0.1], ["2017-04-10", 0.1], ["2017-04-10", 0.1], ["2017-04-11", 0.1], ["2017-04-11", 0.1], 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["2017-11-27", 0.05], ["2017-11-28", 0.05], ["2017-11-28", 0.05], ["2017-11-28", 0.05], ["2017-11-29", 0.05], ["2017-11-29", 0.05], ["2017-11-29", 0.05], ["2017-11-29", 0.05], ["2017-11-29", 0.05], ["2017-11-30", 0.05], ["2017-11-30", 0.05], ["2017-11-30", 0.05], ["2017-11-30", 0.05], ["2017-11-30", 0.05], ["2017-12-01", 0.05], ["2017-12-01", 0.06], ["2017-12-01", 0.06], ["2017-12-01", 0.06], ["2017-12-02", 0.06], ["2017-12-02", 0.07], ["2017-12-03", 0.07], ["2017-12-04", 0.07], ["2017-12-04", 0.075], ["2017-12-04", 0.075], ["2017-12-04", 0.075], ["2017-12-04", 0.07], ["2017-12-04", 0.07], ["2017-12-04", 0.065], ["2017-12-05", 0.065], ["2017-12-05", 0.06], ["2017-12-05", 0.06], ["2017-12-05", 0.055], ["2017-12-05", 0.06], ["2017-12-06", 0.06], ["2017-12-06", 0.05], ["2017-12-06", 0.05], ["2017-12-06", 0.05], ["2017-12-07", 0.05], ["2017-12-08", 0.05], ["2017-12-08", 0.05], ["2017-12-08", 0.05], ["2017-12-08", 0.05], ["2017-12-08", 0.05], ["2017-12-08", 0.06], ["2017-12-08", 0.06], ["2017-12-08", 0.07]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/463 | True |
2019-03-31 | Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic? | binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in the Central African Republic from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://earlywarningproject.ushmm.org"target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
| 2020-03-18 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2018-12-28 | 0.0 | [["2018-12-28", 0.08], ["2018-12-28", 0.215], ["2018-12-28", 0.115], ["2018-12-29", 0.08], ["2018-12-31", 0.08], ["2018-12-31", 0.08], ["2019-01-01", 0.08], ["2019-01-02", 0.08], ["2019-01-02", 0.08], ["2019-01-03", 0.065], ["2019-01-03", 0.05], ["2019-01-04", 0.05], ["2019-01-04", 0.045], ["2019-01-04", 0.045], ["2019-01-06", 0.05], ["2019-01-06", 0.055], ["2019-01-06", 0.055], ["2019-01-06", 0.09], ["2019-01-06", 0.11], ["2019-01-07", 0.11], ["2019-01-07", 0.235], ["2019-01-07", 0.235], ["2019-01-07", 0.235], ["2019-01-07", 0.425], ["2019-01-09", 0.225], ["2019-01-12", 0.105], ["2019-01-13", 0.1], ["2019-01-13", 0.08], ["2019-01-15", 0.08], ["2019-01-16", 0.08], ["2019-01-17", 0.065], ["2019-01-17", 0.06], ["2019-01-18", 0.06], ["2019-01-18", 0.06], ["2019-01-19", 0.085], ["2019-01-20", 0.085], ["2019-01-20", 0.105], ["2019-01-20", 0.11], ["2019-01-22", 0.11], ["2019-01-26", 0.125], ["2019-01-29", 0.185], ["2019-01-29", 0.15], ["2019-01-29", 0.25], ["2019-01-29", 0.2], ["2019-01-29", 0.155], ["2019-01-29", 0.135], ["2019-01-29", 0.15], ["2019-01-29", 0.15], ["2019-01-29", 0.15], ["2019-01-30", 0.135], ["2019-01-30", 0.145], ["2019-01-31", 0.145], ["2019-02-01", 0.145], ["2019-02-01", 0.145], ["2019-02-01", 0.145], ["2019-02-01", 0.14], ["2019-02-03", 0.14], ["2019-02-05", 0.14], ["2019-02-08", 0.14], ["2019-02-08", 0.13], ["2019-02-11", 0.13], ["2019-02-12", 0.13], ["2019-02-12", 0.15], ["2019-02-13", 0.15], ["2019-02-16", 0.15], ["2019-02-20", 0.125], ["2019-02-20", 0.125], ["2019-02-22", 0.12], ["2019-02-22", 0.12], ["2019-02-24", 0.12], ["2019-02-26", 0.12], ["2019-02-27", 0.145], ["2019-02-28", 0.145], ["2019-02-28", 0.14], ["2019-03-01", 0.14], ["2019-03-01", 0.1], ["2019-03-04", 0.1], ["2019-03-05", 0.1], ["2019-03-07", 0.105], ["2019-03-07", 0.105], ["2019-03-07", 0.1], ["2019-03-07", 0.105], ["2019-03-08", 0.1], ["2019-03-09", 0.1], ["2019-03-09", 0.1], ["2019-03-10", 0.1], ["2019-03-11", 0.1], ["2019-03-11", 0.09], ["2019-03-11", 0.09], ["2019-03-12", 0.09], ["2019-03-12", 0.09], ["2019-03-13", 0.08], ["2019-03-13", 0.08], ["2019-03-14", 0.08], ["2019-03-19", 0.08], ["2019-03-21", 0.08], ["2019-03-22", 0.08], ["2019-03-25", 0.08], ["2019-03-29", 0.08], ["2019-03-31", 0.08]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1073 | True |
2017-10-01 | Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from the Democratic Republic of the Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of the Congo?
| binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2017 and will be resolved in July 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Democratic Republic of the Congo from July 2017 through June 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as 'No', with resolutions further detailed in this <a href = "https://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2018/08/01/early-warning-project-question-resolutions-july-1-2017-june-30-2018/"target="_blank">GJ Open blog post written by EWP</a>.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| 2019-12-09 | gjopen | ["https://warisboring.com/whats-the-democratic-republic-of-the-congo-doing-with-these-ukrainian-tanks/", "http://medafricatimes.com/13360-drc-violence-exodus-from-kasai-region-continue.html"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-06-30 | 0.0 | [["2017-06-30", 0.16], ["2017-06-30", 0.25], ["2017-07-01", 0.125], ["2017-07-01", 0.05], ["2017-07-01", 0.055], ["2017-07-01", 0.1], ["2017-07-01", 0.04], ["2017-07-01", 0.1], ["2017-07-02", 0.1], ["2017-07-02", 0.5], ["2017-07-02", 0.5], ["2017-07-03", 0.5], ["2017-07-03", 0.125], ["2017-07-03", 0.125], ["2017-07-03", 0.125], ["2017-07-04", 0.125], ["2017-07-04", 0.1], ["2017-07-04", 0.1], ["2017-07-04", 0.1], ["2017-07-04", 0.1], ["2017-07-05", 0.1], ["2017-07-05", 0.1], ["2017-07-05", 0.1], ["2017-07-05", 0.1], ["2017-07-05", 0.1], ["2017-07-05", 0.1], ["2017-07-06", 0.1], ["2017-07-06", 0.1], ["2017-07-07", 0.1], ["2017-07-07", 0.1], ["2017-07-08", 0.1], ["2017-07-09", 0.1], ["2017-07-09", 0.1], 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2018-07-01 | Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?
| binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2018 and will be resolved in April 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in the Yemen from April 2018 to March 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples" target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.<p></p><hr><p></p><p>This question closed as No. (<u><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpapril2018mar2019" target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a></u>)</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p> | 2019-05-20 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2018-04-02 | 0.0 | [["2018-04-02", 0.25], ["2018-04-02", 0.1], ["2018-04-03", 0.275], ["2018-04-03", 0.23], ["2018-04-03", 0.08], ["2018-04-03", 0.15], ["2018-04-04", 0.15], ["2018-04-04", 0.125], ["2018-04-04", 0.125], ["2018-04-04", 0.075], ["2018-04-04", 0.1], ["2018-04-04", 0.15], ["2018-04-05", 0.15], ["2018-04-06", 0.1], ["2018-04-06", 0.05], ["2018-04-06", 0.05], ["2018-04-07", 0.05], ["2018-04-07", 0.05], ["2018-04-07", 0.05], ["2018-04-07", 0.02], ["2018-04-08", 0.035], ["2018-04-08", 0.035], ["2018-04-09", 0.035], ["2018-04-10", 0.155], ["2018-04-10", 0.15], ["2018-04-10", 0.18], ["2018-04-11", 0.18], ["2018-04-12", 0.165], ["2018-04-13", 0.165], ["2018-04-14", 0.165], ["2018-04-14", 0.215], ["2018-04-14", 0.18], ["2018-04-15", 0.15], ["2018-04-15", 0.165], ["2018-04-15", 0.165], ["2018-04-16", 0.125], ["2018-04-16", 0.125], ["2018-04-16", 0.13], ["2018-04-16", 0.13], ["2018-04-19", 0.1], ["2018-04-19", 0.1], ["2018-04-20", 0.1], ["2018-04-21", 0.115], ["2018-04-25", 0.115], ["2018-04-25", 0.115], ["2018-04-29", 0.14], ["2018-04-29", 0.115], ["2018-05-01", 0.115], ["2018-05-02", 0.115], ["2018-05-02", 0.115], ["2018-05-04", 0.115], ["2018-05-09", 0.13], ["2018-05-10", 0.13], ["2018-05-11", 0.13], ["2018-05-12", 0.13], ["2018-05-14", 0.13], ["2018-05-14", 0.13], ["2018-05-17", 0.13], ["2018-05-17", 0.13], ["2018-05-21", 0.13], ["2018-05-22", 0.13], ["2018-05-24", 0.095], ["2018-05-24", 0.095], ["2018-05-25", 0.13], ["2018-05-26", 0.13], ["2018-05-26", 0.13], ["2018-05-28", 0.13], ["2018-05-30", 0.13], ["2018-05-30", 0.13], ["2018-05-30", 0.13], ["2018-05-31", 0.13], ["2018-06-01", 0.13], ["2018-06-02", 0.14], ["2018-06-04", 0.14], ["2018-06-06", 0.14], ["2018-06-08", 0.14], ["2018-06-11", 0.14], ["2018-06-12", 0.14], ["2018-06-12", 0.1], ["2018-06-13", 0.115], ["2018-06-13", 0.115], ["2018-06-13", 0.14], ["2018-06-13", 0.15], ["2018-06-14", 0.15], ["2018-06-14", 0.15], ["2018-06-14", 0.15], ["2018-06-15", 0.15], ["2018-06-16", 0.15], ["2018-06-16", 0.15], ["2018-06-17", 0.15], ["2018-06-18", 0.15], ["2018-06-20", 0.15], ["2018-06-22", 0.15], ["2018-06-23", 0.25], ["2018-06-23", 0.275], ["2018-06-23", 0.275], ["2018-06-24", 0.275], ["2018-06-24", 0.2], ["2018-06-25", 0.2], ["2018-06-26", 0.2], ["2018-06-26", 0.2], ["2018-06-27", 0.2], ["2018-06-27", 0.35], ["2018-06-27", 0.275], ["2018-06-27", 0.275], ["2018-06-27", 0.275], ["2018-06-27", 0.2], ["2018-06-27", 0.2], ["2018-06-28", 0.2], ["2018-06-29", 0.2], ["2018-06-29", 0.2], ["2018-06-29", 0.19], ["2018-06-29", 0.19], ["2018-06-30", 0.2], ["2018-07-01", 0.2]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/921 | True |
2016-08-05 | Will the Centers for Disease Control elevate their travel guidance for Brazil to Warning Level 3 due to the Zika virus before the Olympics begin? | binary | This question was closed with the answer "No" on 9 August 2016 with an end date of 5 August 2016. The Olympics began on 5 August 2016 (<a href="http://www.nbcolympics.com/live-stream-schedule" target="_blank">NBC</a>), at which time the CDC' s categorization of travel to Brazil was still "Alert Level 2" (<a href="http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/destinations/traveler/none/brazil" target="_blank">CDC</a>). Scores are based on forecasts made through 11:59 PM Pacific time on 4 August 2016.
The CDC currently categorizes travel to South America, including Brazil, as "Alert Level 2," recommending travelers practice enhanced precautions. Elevation to "Warning Level 3" would include recommendations against non-essential travel (<a href = "http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices/alert/zika-virus-south-america" target = "_blank">CDC 1</a>, <a href = "http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/destinations/traveler/none/brazil" target = "_blank">CDC 2</a>, <a href = "http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices" target = "_blank">CDC 3</a>). There has been concern over Zika's potential effects on the Olympics, which are scheduled to begin on 5 August 2016 (<a href = "http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/world-health-organization-zika-virus_us_56aa8608e4b00b033aae57eb?2cp4lsor" target = "_blank">Huffington Post</a>, <a href = "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/olympics/12137247/Zika-virus-might-stop-me-taking-my-family-to-the-Olympics-admits-British-athletics-star-Martyn-Rooney.html" target = "_blank">Telegraph</a>, <a href = "http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/05/brazil-faces-steep-hurdles-ahead-of-olympics-zika-and-economic-crisis" target = "_blank">Guardian</a>).
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2018-01-01 | Before 2018, will Tesla file for bankruptcy or begin restructuring its debt in a corporate workout? | binary | Tesla has been faced with questions over its financial solvency over the years (<a href = "http://fortune.com/2016/12/02/tesla-model-3-stock-elon-musk/"target="_blank">Fortune</a>, <a href = "http://www.sfgate.com/business/article/Did-Tesla-nearly-go-bankrupt-without-investors-6239762.php"target="_blank"> SF Gate</a>). Scrutiny increased with Tesla’s acquisition of SolarCity in 2016 (<a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-17/tesla-seals-2-billion-solarcity-deal-set-to-test-musk-s-vision"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href = "http://www.marketwatch.com/story/even-musk-cant-make-solarcity-tesla-deal-make-sense-2016-09-21"target="_blank">Market Watch</a>). Actions by Tesla or its wholly-owned subsidiaries, including SolarCity, will count, regardless of the country where the bankruptcy filing or corporate workout takes place. For more information on corporate workouts and bankruptcy proceedings see: <a href = "http://bankruptcy.findlaw.com/debt-relief/non-bankruptcy-workouts.html"target="_blank">FindLaw</a>, <a href = "https://www.law360.com/articles/510976/how-to-decide-between-out-of-court-workout-and-bankruptcy"target="_blank">Law 360</a>
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/379"target = "_blank">the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration grant a waiver allowing Amazon to test its unmanned aerial vehicles in 2017</a> or on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/223"target = "_blank">SpaceX will launch the Falcon Heavy rocket into low earth orbit before 1 March 2017</a>.</sub>
Tesla did not file for bankruptcy or begin restructuring its debt in a corporate workout. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
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<hr>
| 2018-01-07 | gjopen | ["https://www.technologyreview.com/s/604087/the-dark-secret-at-the-heart-of-ai/", "https://www.google.com/search?q=tesla+stocks", "https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/19/tesla-to-plunge-nearly-30-percent-on-weak-profitability-jefferies.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-musk-neuralink-idUSKBN17N0CU", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-28/china-is-about-to-bury-elon-musk-in-batteries", "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000119312511054847/dex211.htm", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-truck-research/teslas-unfettered-ambition-will-drain-finances-analysts-idUSKBN1DH1M4", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-15/tesla-drops-as-morgan-stanley-warns-of-cash-burn-richer-rivals", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-quality-insight/build-fast-fix-later-speed-hurts-quality-at-tesla-some-workers-say-idUSKBN1DT0N3?il=0", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-offering-idUSKBN1AN13I", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-ratings-consumerreports-idUSKBN17S14Q?il=0", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-truck-research/teslas-unfettered-ambition-to-drain-finances-analysts-idUSKBN1DH1M4", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-03/tesla-bulls-can-exhale-as-musk-on-time-with-dawn-of-model-3-era", "http://uk.businessinsider.com/tesla-stock-price-junk-bond-offering-boost-2017-8?r=US&IR=T", "https://www.tesla.com/en_EU/blog/tesla-powerpack-enable-large-scale-sustainable-energy-south-australia?redirect=no", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2017-11-22/tesla-burns-through-about-8-000-every-minute-video", "https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-q3-earnings-elon-musk-celebrates-gigafactory-camping/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-21/tesla-is-blowing-through-8-000-every-minute-amid-model-3-woes", "https://jalopnik.com/teslas-german-subsidiary-didnt-warn-clients-it-was-endi-1794966451", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-seats/teslas-seat-strategy-goes-against-the-grain-for-now-idUSKBN1CV0DS", "https://electrek.co/2017/04/14/tesla-solar-bonds-elon-musk-spacex/", "https://techcrunch.com/2017/11/26/in-praise-of-teslas-bankruptcy/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-germany-exclusive-idUSKBN17T2IY", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-hyperloop-musk/elon-musk-to-compete-to-fund-high-speed-loop-in-chicago-idUSKBN1DU0CF", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-assemblyline-idUSKBN17Q0DE"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-02-16 | 0.0 | [["2017-02-16", 0.065], ["2017-02-16", 0.02], ["2017-02-16", 0.055], ["2017-02-16", 0.03], ["2017-02-16", 0.04], ["2017-02-16", 0.03], ["2017-02-16", 0.03], ["2017-02-17", 0.03], ["2017-02-17", 0.04], ["2017-02-17", 0.04], ["2017-02-17", 0.03], ["2017-02-17", 0.03], ["2017-02-17", 0.04], ["2017-02-17", 0.045], ["2017-02-18", 0.05], ["2017-02-18", 0.05], ["2017-02-18", 0.05], ["2017-02-19", 0.05], 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2018-07-01 | Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from South Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in South Sudan?
| binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2018 and will be resolved in April 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in South Sudan from April 2018 to March 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples" target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this<span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span><p></p><hr><p></p><p>This question closed as Yes. (<font color="#166b76"><span style="outline: -webkit-focus-ring-color auto 5px; outline-offset: -2px;"><u><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpapril2018mar2019" target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a></u></span></font>)</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline; bottom: -0.25em;">See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p> | 2019-05-20 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2018-04-02 | 1.0 | [["2018-04-02", 0.5], ["2018-04-03", 0.65], ["2018-04-03", 0.335], ["2018-04-03", 0.185], ["2018-04-03", 0.25], ["2018-04-03", 0.35], ["2018-04-03", 0.35], ["2018-04-03", 0.25], ["2018-04-03", 0.4], ["2018-04-03", 0.375], ["2018-04-03", 0.35], ["2018-04-03", 0.15], ["2018-04-04", 0.175], ["2018-04-04", 0.275], ["2018-04-04", 0.25], ["2018-04-04", 0.175], ["2018-04-04", 0.15], ["2018-04-04", 0.11], ["2018-04-04", 0.2], ["2018-04-04", 0.15], ["2018-04-05", 0.175], ["2018-04-06", 0.125], ["2018-04-06", 0.125], ["2018-04-06", 0.125], ["2018-04-06", 0.1], ["2018-04-06", 0.1], ["2018-04-06", 0.1], ["2018-04-07", 0.085], ["2018-04-07", 0.06], ["2018-04-07", 0.07], ["2018-04-07", 0.05], ["2018-04-07", 0.05], ["2018-04-08", 0.05], ["2018-04-08", 0.05], ["2018-04-08", 0.05], ["2018-04-08", 0.05], ["2018-04-09", 0.05], ["2018-04-10", 0.05], ["2018-04-11", 0.05], ["2018-04-12", 0.05], ["2018-04-12", 0.05], ["2018-04-13", 0.05], ["2018-04-13", 0.05], ["2018-04-14", 0.07], ["2018-04-14", 0.07], ["2018-04-14", 0.05], ["2018-04-14", 0.09], ["2018-04-14", 0.115], ["2018-04-15", 0.095], ["2018-04-15", 0.095], ["2018-04-16", 0.09], ["2018-04-16", 0.09], ["2018-04-16", 0.1], ["2018-04-17", 0.12], ["2018-04-18", 0.12], ["2018-04-19", 0.12], ["2018-04-19", 0.12], ["2018-04-20", 0.12], ["2018-04-21", 0.12], ["2018-04-25", 0.12], ["2018-04-26", 0.12], ["2018-04-28", 0.14], ["2018-04-29", 0.15], ["2018-04-30", 0.15], ["2018-05-01", 0.125], ["2018-05-01", 0.125], ["2018-05-02", 0.125], ["2018-05-02", 0.125], ["2018-05-03", 0.2], ["2018-05-03", 0.2], ["2018-05-07", 0.2], ["2018-05-08", 0.2], ["2018-05-09", 0.2], ["2018-05-10", 0.2], ["2018-05-10", 0.25], ["2018-05-11", 0.31], ["2018-05-11", 0.32], ["2018-05-12", 0.32], ["2018-05-13", 0.34], ["2018-05-14", 0.34], ["2018-05-14", 0.32], ["2018-05-16", 0.32], ["2018-05-17", 0.28], ["2018-05-17", 0.28], ["2018-05-18", 0.28], ["2018-05-18", 0.25], ["2018-05-18", 0.31], ["2018-05-21", 0.33], ["2018-05-22", 0.33], ["2018-05-22", 0.33], ["2018-05-22", 0.32], ["2018-05-24", 0.32], ["2018-05-24", 0.32], ["2018-05-24", 0.32], ["2018-05-26", 0.32], ["2018-05-26", 0.32], ["2018-05-28", 0.32], ["2018-05-29", 0.32], ["2018-05-29", 0.32], ["2018-05-30", 0.33], ["2018-05-31", 0.33], ["2018-06-01", 0.33], ["2018-06-02", 0.33], ["2018-06-02", 0.29], ["2018-06-02", 0.31], ["2018-06-02", 0.31], ["2018-06-03", 0.34], ["2018-06-03", 0.34], ["2018-06-04", 0.34], ["2018-06-05", 0.35], ["2018-06-08", 0.35], ["2018-06-08", 0.35], ["2018-06-11", 0.35], ["2018-06-12", 0.34], ["2018-06-13", 0.34], ["2018-06-14", 0.34], ["2018-06-15", 0.34], ["2018-06-15", 0.34], ["2018-06-16", 0.34], ["2018-06-16", 0.325], ["2018-06-17", 0.325], ["2018-06-18", 0.3], ["2018-06-20", 0.3], ["2018-06-22", 0.3], ["2018-06-23", 0.3], ["2018-06-23", 0.3], ["2018-06-23", 0.3], ["2018-06-24", 0.3], ["2018-06-24", 0.3], ["2018-06-25", 0.3], ["2018-06-26", 0.3], ["2018-06-27", 0.3], ["2018-06-27", 0.3], ["2018-06-27", 0.295], ["2018-06-27", 0.29], ["2018-06-27", 0.28], ["2018-06-28", 0.28], ["2018-06-29", 0.28], ["2018-06-29", 0.28], ["2018-06-29", 0.28], ["2018-06-29", 0.28], ["2018-06-30", 0.265], ["2018-07-01", 0.265]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/906 | True |
2017-10-01 | Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan? | binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2017 and will be resolved in July 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Afghanistan from July 2017 through June 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as 'No', with resolutions further detailed in <a href = "https://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2018/08/01/early-warning-project-question-resolutions-july-1-2017-june-30-2018/"target="_blank">this GJ Open blog post written by EWP</a>.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| 2019-12-09 | gjopen | ["http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/08/taliban-suicide-bomber-kills-civilians-helmand-170823072606297.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-casualties-idUSKBN1A20RL", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/08/gunmen-attack-shia-imam-zaman-mosque-kabul-170825095421445.html"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-06-30 | 0.0 | [["2017-06-30", 0.03], ["2017-06-30", 0.45], ["2017-07-01", 0.225], ["2017-07-01", 0.01], ["2017-07-01", 0.015], ["2017-07-01", 0.02], ["2017-07-01", 0.03], ["2017-07-01", 0.03], ["2017-07-01", 0.02], ["2017-07-02", 0.025], ["2017-07-02", 0.285], ["2017-07-02", 0.625], ["2017-07-02", 0.625], ["2017-07-03", 0.55], ["2017-07-03", 0.03], ["2017-07-03", 0.02], ["2017-07-03", 0.02], ["2017-07-03", 0.025], ["2017-07-04", 0.025], ["2017-07-04", 0.02], ["2017-07-04", 0.015], ["2017-07-04", 0.02], ["2017-07-04", 0.02], ["2017-07-05", 0.03], ["2017-07-05", 0.04], ["2017-07-05", 0.15], ["2017-07-05", 0.04], ["2017-07-05", 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["2017-09-25", 0.115], ["2017-09-26", 0.115], ["2017-09-26", 0.115], ["2017-09-27", 0.115], ["2017-09-27", 0.115], ["2017-09-27", 0.18], ["2017-09-27", 0.21], ["2017-09-28", 0.21], ["2017-09-28", 0.21], ["2017-09-29", 0.21], ["2017-09-29", 0.21], ["2017-09-29", 0.21], ["2017-09-30", 0.21], ["2017-09-30", 0.21], ["2017-09-30", 0.21], ["2017-10-01", 0.21]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/507 | True |
2016-12-31 | Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Libya before 1 January 2017? | binary | For more information on what constitutes an episode of mass killing, see the <a href="http://www.earlywarningproject.com/definitions" target="_blank">Early Warning Project's Definitions page</a>). The Early Warning Project’s <a href="http://www.earlywarningproject.com/countries/libya" target="_blank">2015 statistical risk assessments</a> identified Libya as the 24th country at the greatest risk of an onset of a new episode of state-led mass killing. Those forecasts do not include the risk of mass killing by non-state groups, which would also produce a “yes” answer to this question. This question will be resolved by the Early Warning Project, in consultation with subject matter experts, using publicly available secondary sources. If the project determines that a new episode of mass killing has occurred, relevant evidence will be summarized in a post on <a href="http://www.earlywarningproject.com/posts" target="_blank">EWP's blog</a>.
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This question was closed as a "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. The EWP did not find evidence of a new mass killing episode in Libya before the end of 2016 (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/2017/03/29/state-of-the-world-mass-killing-in-2016"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | 2017-03-30 | gjopen | ["http://unsmil.unmissions.org/Default.aspx?tabid=3543&ctl=Details&mid=6187&Itemid=2099677&language=en-US", "https://www.libyaherald.com/2016/04/11/271-violent-deaths-in-libya-up-to-february/", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-38049950", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-libya-security-sirte-idUSKBN12H1U9", "https://www.amnesty.org/en/countries/middle-east-and-north-africa/libya/report-libya/", "https://www.libyaherald.com/2016/01/01/libyan-violent-deaths-totalled-1523-in-2015-libyan-ngo/", "https://www.rt.com/business/364945-world-bank-libya-economic-collapse/", "http://www.crisis.acleddata.com/conflict-stabilisation-in-libya/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/313675", "http://unsmil.unmissions.org/Default.aspx?tabid=3543&ctl=Details&mid=6187&Itemid=2099703&language=en-US", "https://www.aaas.org/libya"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-08-23 | 0.0 | [["2016-08-23", 0.15], ["2016-08-23", 0.0], ["2016-08-23", 0.005], 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2016-07-01 | Will the EU lift visa requirements for Turkish citizens before July 2016? | binary | This question resolved on 30 June 2016: The European Commission has stated that Turkey has failed to meet certain conditions required for visa liberalization, but talks will continue (<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/15/turkey-misses-deadline-visa-free-travel-eu-ambassador-withdraw" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>, <a href="http://www.euronews.com/2016/06/23/turkey-announces-fresh-round-of-eu-talks/" target="_blank">Euronews</a>, <a href="http://www.politico.eu/article/turkey-to-miss-visa-free-travel-deadline/" target="_blank">Politico</a>).
In a deal struck in March 2016, the EU agreed to lift visa requirements for Turkish citizens by the end of June if Turkey holds up its end of the deal on handling migrants and refugees and satisfies the conditions of visa liberalization (<a href="http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-16-963_en.htm" target="_blank">European Commission</a>, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-turkey-davutoglu-idUSKCN0WK0QQ" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5344d67c-eb92-11e5-bb79-2303682345c8.html#axzz43dJ9BuRr" target="_blank">Financial Times</a>). For more information on the visa requirements referenced in the agreement and the visa liberalization process for Turkey more generally see: <a href="http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-16-582_en.htm" target="_blank">European Commission</a>.
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"https://www.rt.com/news/348191-eu-referendum-turkey-visa/", "http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/05/11/erdogan-aims-eu-visa-free-travel-citizens-turkey-october/", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/237861", "http://www.independent.ie/world-news/europe/turkey-wont-go-ahead-with-eu-refugee-plan-unless-visa-requirements-are-lifted-for-turkish-citizens-34744250.html", "https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/eu-turkey-search-lasting-migrant-deal", "http://nos.nl/l/2103072", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/merkel-warns-turkey-visa-free-eu-travel-july-142129586.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw", "http://www.politico.eu/article/turkey-to-miss-visa-free-travel-deadline/", "http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/news-room/20160509IPR26368/Visa-liberalisation-for-Turkey-EU-criteria-must-be-met-say-MEPs", "http://nos.nl/l/2103128", "https://www.rt.com/news/345805-merkel-erdogan-incomprehensible-comments/", "http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/05/turkey-european-union-visa-free-travel-dream-collide.html#ixzz48whXZszE", "http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/Default.aspx", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-24/merkel-caught-off-guard-as-erdogan-threatens-to-ax-refugee-deal", "http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-turkey-eu-idUKKCN0ZG0RC?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FUKWorldNews+%28News+%2F+UK+%2F+World+News%29", "http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/679589/Angela-Merkel-EU-chaos-cave-in-grant-Turkey-visa-free-travel-ambassador-migrants"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-05-10 | 0.0 | [["2016-05-10", 0.66], ["2016-05-10", 0.25], ["2016-05-10", 0.15], ["2016-05-10", 0.2], ["2016-05-10", 0.2], ["2016-05-10", 0.38], ["2016-05-10", 0.315], ["2016-05-10", 0.465], ["2016-05-10", 0.2], ["2016-05-10", 0.135], ["2016-05-10", 0.12], ["2016-05-10", 0.05], ["2016-05-10", 0.075], ["2016-05-10", 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2016-03-02 | Will the UN Security Council pass a resolution expanding sanctions on North Korea before 1 June 2016? | binary | The U.S. and China appear to disagree over how to respond to North Korea's recent nuclear test and rocket launch (<a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-35518058" target = "_blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/28/world/asia/us-china-north-korea.html" target = "_blank">NY Times 1</a>, <a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/08/world/asia/china-struggles-for-balance-in-response-to-north-koreas-boldness.html" target = "_blank">NY Times 2</a>).
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2015-12-31 | Will there be a partial or full government shutdown in the United States before the end of the year? | binary | A government shut down occurs when the President and Congress fail to agree on full year or interim funding for government agencies and programs ( http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/congress-shutdown-boehner-planned-parenthood-214122 , https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL34680.pdf , http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-annual-budget-deficit-rose-in-july-1439402405 ). | 2016-01-07 | gjopen | ["http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/dec/9/house-leaders-introduce-short-term-bill-keep-gover/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fiscal-senate-idUSKBN0TT2PD20151210", "http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0TT2PD20151210", "http://billmoyers.com/story/lurking-within-that-ominous-omnibus-spending-bill/", "http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/significant-issues-remain-congress-works-avoid-government-shutdown-n479826", "http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/30/politics/senate-budget-agreement-rand-paul/", "http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/policy-budget/congress/2015/12/11/congress-buys-more-time-pass-yearlong-funding-measure/77173776/", "http://thehill.com/policy/finance/263177-spending-negotiators-see-11t-deal-in-sight", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/12/11/paul-ryans-precarious-tight-rope-walk-with-house-conservatives/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fiscal-vote-idUSKBN0TS2WF20151210#D2hEHuIqXrXM1Ddr.97", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/10/a-super-long-picky-post/", "http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2015/1211/Obama-Congress-avoids-government-shutdown", "http://www.politico.com/tipsheets/morning-energy/2015/12/morning-energy-wolff-211670", "http://sputniknews.com/us/20151203/1031200064/us-government-shut-down-budget-fiscal-year.html", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/13/saturday-night-is-all-right/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fiscal-idUSKBN0TT28J20151210", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/23/early-christmas-gift-accidental-clustering/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/12/super-friday-night/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/59944", "http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/budget-negotiations-congress-timing-216740", "http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/policy-budget/congress/2015/12/07/lawmakers-seek-avert-government-shutdown/76923694/", "http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/us-budget-deficit-widened-november-35697500", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/14/excluding-outliers-in-the-smart-crowd-forecast/", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/house-passes-short-term-spending-bill-to-avoid-government-shutdown-1449856732", "http://www.ibtimes.com/government-shutdown-2015-will-federal-government-shut-down-again-2221847"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2015-09-28 | 0.0 | [["2015-09-28", 0.125], ["2015-09-28", 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2016-12-31 | Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Turkey before 1 January 2017? | binary | For more information on what constitutes an episode of mass killing, see the <a href="http://www.earlywarningproject.com/definitions" target="_blank">Early Warning Project’s Definitions page</a>. The Early Warning Project’s 2015 statistical risk assessments identified Turkey as one of the 31 countries at greatest risk of an onset of a new episode of state-led mass killing (<a href="http://www.earlywarningproject.com/countries/turkey" target="_blank">EWP</a>). Those forecasts do not include the risk of mass killing by non-state groups, which would also produce a “yes” answer to this question. This question will be resolved by the Early Warning Project, in consultation with subject matter experts, using publicly available secondary sources. If the project determines that a new episode of mass killing has occurred, relevant evidence will be summarized in a post on <a href="http://www.earlywarningproject.com/posts" target="_blank">EWP's blog</a>.
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This question was closed as a "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. The EWP did not find evidence of a new mass killing episode in Turkey before the end of 2016 (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/2017/03/29/state-of-the-world-mass-killing-in-2016"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | 2017-03-30 | gjopen | ["https://www.earlywarningproject.org/2016/06/06/trends-over-time-in-state-led-mass-killing-through-2015", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/321615", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-security-kurds-idUSKBN13109Y?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FworldNews+%28Reuters+World+News%29", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34503388", "https://twitter.com/i/moments/759015382409621505", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37003819", "http://www.earlywarningproject.com/definitions", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/309448", "http://www.weaselzippers.us/285630-report-british-intercepted-intel-reveals-erdogan-behind-coup-to-conduct-purges/", "https://www.socialeurope.eu/2016/01/turkeys-military-onslaught-kurds-europe-us-silent/", "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/detainees-beaten-tortured-and-raped-after-failed-turkey-coup-amnesty-says-a7154091.html", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/281914", "https://twitter.com/MahirZeynalov/status/758989255242678274", "http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/11/04/erdogans-latest-crackdown-and-how-turkeys-chaos-plays-to-extremists-strengths/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/356262", "http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/15/europe/turkey-coup-crackdown-one-month/", "http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/08/20/490779707/turkish-officials-say-at-least-22-killed-94-injured-in-wedding-bombing", "http://www.crisisgroup.be/interactives/turkey/", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/26/world/europe/turkey-cracks-down-on-journalists-its-next-target-after-failed-coup.html", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/21/turkey-suspends-european-convention-on-human-rights-as-it-enacts/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/313526", "http://www.pressreader.com/usa/san-francisco-chronicle/20160829/281603829893963", "https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2016/07/turkey-human-rights-in-grave-danger-following-coup-attempt-and-subsequent-crackdown/", "https://www.rt.com/news/353277-turkey-erdogan-death-penalty-eu/", "http://www.news.com.au/world/breaking-news/265-deaths-in-failed-turkey-coup/news-story/1111b2a30416fb70d83299cf505612f1"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-05-25 | 0.0 | [["2016-05-25", 0.515], ["2016-05-25", 0.05], ["2016-05-25", 0.05], ["2016-05-25", 0.05], ["2016-05-25", 0.1], ["2016-05-26", 0.08], ["2016-05-26", 0.085], ["2016-05-26", 0.09], ["2016-05-26", 0.125], ["2016-05-26", 0.105], ["2016-05-26", 0.125], ["2016-05-26", 0.14], ["2016-05-26", 0.075], ["2016-05-27", 0.05], ["2016-05-27", 0.08], ["2016-05-27", 0.08], ["2016-05-27", 0.06], ["2016-05-27", 0.1], ["2016-05-27", 0.08], ["2016-05-28", 0.075], ["2016-05-28", 0.075], ["2016-05-29", 0.055], ["2016-05-29", 0.06], ["2016-05-29", 0.065], ["2016-05-29", 0.08], ["2016-05-29", 0.1], ["2016-05-29", 0.1], 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2017-12-31 | Before 1 January 2018, will Qatar announce that it will cease to export natural gas to any country? | binary | If the diplomatic crisis between Qatar and its neighbors escalates, the supply and distribution of Qatari natural gas could be disrupted (<a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-09/qatari-lng-diversions-shock-eu-gas-traders-as-crisis-intensifies"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href = "https://www.zawya.com/mena/en/story/ADIPEC_2017_Energy_sector_remains_neutral_in_Qatar_rift_says_Omani_oil_minister-ZAWYA20171114051426/"target="_blank">Zawya</a>, <a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-13/qatar-says-it-s-fulfilling-oil-and-gas-deals-despite-gulf-crisis"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>).
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<hr>
Qatar did not announce that it will cease to export natural gas to any country. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
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| 2018-01-03 | gjopen | ["https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=36338", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gulf-qatar-gas/qatar-wont-cut-gas-to-uae-qatar-petroleum-ceo-idUSKBN1990Q2", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Ukraine_gas_disputes", "http://welcomeqatar.com/articles/qatar-gulf-crisis-questions-answered-3/", "http://m.lngworldnews.com/#newsitem-207716", "https://www.reuters.com/article/bolivia-gas-qatar/qatari-energy-minister-sees-oversupply-of-lng-in-coming-years-idUSL1N1NS0QR", "https://www.thepeninsulaqatar.com/article/21/12/2017/Qatargas-and-OMV-sign-5-year-LNG-agreement"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-11-29 | 0.0 | [["2017-11-29", 0.01], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.02], ["2017-11-29", 0.07], ["2017-11-29", 0.05], ["2017-11-29", 0.01], ["2017-11-29", 0.01], ["2017-11-29", 0.005], ["2017-11-30", 0.005], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 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["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/800 | True |
2015-12-06 | Will the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) maintain its majority in Venezuela's National Assembly after the next legislative elections? | binary | The continued dominance of Maduro's PSUV is uncertain as Venezuela faces a crumbling economy, a legal scandal, border disputes, and protests (https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/venezuelas-next-election-poses-double-threat-leaders , http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/12/venezuela-opposition-leader-jailed-leopoldo-lopez-international-criticism , http://news.yahoo.com/venezuelan-row-colombia-election-ploy-analysts-220608789 ). The election is scheduled for 6 December 2015. | 2015-12-07 | gjopen | ["http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/12/5/venezuela-gears-for-socialist-party-defeat.html", "http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/12/03/venezuela-leopoldo-lopez-nicolas-maduro-election/", "http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/908ebf6a-9756-11e5-9228-87e603d47bdc.html#ixzz3tEYfmQYu", "http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/article47556560.html#storylink=cpy", "http://www.foreignpolicyi.org/content/fpi-bulletin-venezuela%E2%80%99s-election-peril", "http://caracaschronicles.com/2015/11/30/where-6d-will-be-won/", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-06/venezuelans-to-vote-in-polls-seen-handing-congress-to-opposition", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/12/04/venezuelas-opposition-is-poised-to-win-big-but-maduro-isnt-done-yet/", "http://washpost.bloomberg.com/Story?docId=1376-NYMW7I6KLVRK01-77QVV1955EDOQEDADC8DNB5D5S", "http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/18/opinion/venezuelas-threatened-elections.html?_r=0", "http://result.wild/", "http://en.mercopress.com/2015/12/02/macri-to-meet-rousseff-friday-trade-mercosur-and-venezuela-in-the-agenda", "http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/04/venezuela-election-bolivarian-revolution-maduro", "http://news.yahoo.com/venezuelan-presidents-popularity-bounces-election-031117918.html", "http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21679515-vote-momentous-consequences-vincible", "https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/loss-venezuelas-ruling-party-will-challenge-its-main-leaders", "http://caracaschronicles.com/2015/12/01/the-simple-majority-con/", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/venezuela-regime-fights-back-against-surging-opposition-as-elections-near-1449191000", "http://www.gulf-times.com/us-latin%20america/182/details/465041/venezuela-opposition-eyes-landmark-win", "http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2015/12/election-primer", "http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/venezuelan-president-hints-he-will-not-accept-defeat-in-mid-term-election-1.2452073", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-03/venezuela-congress-election-what-to-watch-as-results-come-in", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/52356", "http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/World/2015/Dec-02/325515-venezuelas-harried-opposition-eyes-landmark-win.ashx", "http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-weisbrot/venezuela-election-us-_b_8691766.html"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2015-10-27 | 0.0 | [["2015-10-27", 0.545], ["2015-10-27", 0.725], ["2015-10-27", 0.73], ["2015-10-27", 0.73], ["2015-10-27", 0.73], ["2015-10-27", 0.775], ["2015-10-28", 0.775], ["2015-10-28", 0.73], ["2015-10-28", 0.705], ["2015-10-28", 0.7], ["2015-10-28", 0.7], ["2015-10-28", 0.71], ["2015-10-28", 0.75], ["2015-10-28", 0.75], ["2015-10-28", 0.75], ["2015-10-28", 0.75], ["2015-10-28", 0.74], ["2015-10-28", 0.74], ["2015-10-28", 0.74], ["2015-10-28", 0.75], ["2015-10-28", 0.73], ["2015-10-28", 0.7], ["2015-10-28", 0.7], ["2015-10-28", 0.7], ["2015-10-28", 0.69], ["2015-10-29", 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["2015-12-03", 0.55], ["2015-12-03", 0.55], ["2015-12-03", 0.55], ["2015-12-03", 0.55], ["2015-12-03", 0.55], ["2015-12-03", 0.55], ["2015-12-03", 0.55], ["2015-12-04", 0.55], ["2015-12-04", 0.55], ["2015-12-04", 0.55], ["2015-12-04", 0.55], ["2015-12-04", 0.55], ["2015-12-04", 0.55], ["2015-12-04", 0.55], ["2015-12-04", 0.55], ["2015-12-04", 0.55], ["2015-12-04", 0.55], ["2015-12-04", 0.55], ["2015-12-05", 0.55], ["2015-12-05", 0.55], ["2015-12-05", 0.55], ["2015-12-05", 0.55], ["2015-12-05", 0.55], ["2015-12-05", 0.55], ["2015-12-05", 0.55], ["2015-12-05", 0.55], ["2015-12-06", 0.55], ["2015-12-06", 0.55], ["2015-12-06", 0.55], ["2015-12-06", 0.55], ["2015-12-06", 0.55], ["2015-12-06", 0.55]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/65 | True |
2016-10-17 | Before 18 October 2016, will there be a confrontation involving Iran's and another country's national military forces that produces at least one fatality in the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, or the Gulf of Oman? | binary | This question was closed on option B) 'No' on 17 October, 2016. There have been no reports of fatal confrontation between Iranian military forces and other national military forces in the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, or the Gulf of Oman during the time frame in question.
For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps (<a href="http://iranprimer.usip.org/resource/revolutionary-guards" target="_blank">US Institute of Peace</a>, <a href="http://www.cfr.org/iran/irans-revolutionary-guards/p14324" target="_blank">Council on Foreign Relations</a>). Iranian vessels patrolling the Strait of Hormuz have been involved in what the US and others have called a number of risky interactions in recent years (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-iran-warship-idUSKCN0ZR2E0" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2015/12/30/US-Iran-have-close-call-in-Strait-of-Hormuz/6971451441956/" target="_blank">United Press International</a>, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/02/world/middleeast/strait-of-hormuz-once-again-at-center-of-us-iran-strife.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/iran-fires-singapore-tanker-strait-hormuz/story?id=31045253" target="_blank">ABC News</a>). For this question, civilians killed inadvertently will be included in the fatality count.
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<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/232" target="_blank">Will either Mir Hossein Mousavi or Mehdi Karroubi stand trial or be released from house arrest before 1 June 2017?</a>
<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/73" target="_blank">Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea region involving China's and another country's national military forces or law enforcement personnel before 1 January 2017?</a> | 2016-10-18 | gjopen | ["http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2016/Oct-13/376270-iran-warships-sent-to-waters-off-conflict-hit-yemen.ashx", "http://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/analysis-of-the-iaeas-third-iran-deal-report-filling-in-missing-details", "http://pilotonline.com/news/military/local/norfolk-based-uss-san-antonio-came-under-missile-attack-with/article_75be0991-0713-5cd8-b3ee-e8fa08533133.html", "http://www.eurasiareview.com/14102016-saudi-special-forces-train-with-chinese-french/", "http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/10/13/iran-sends-ships-to-yemeni-coast-in-wake-of-u-s-strikes/", "http://www.local10.com/news/politics/us-official-navy-aircraft-threatened-with-shoot-down-by-iran", "http://www.thetower.org/3927-irgc-admiral-tells-u-s-to-leave-persian-gulf-amid-growing-iranian-harassment/", "http://abcnews.go.com/International/missiles-fired-us-ship-off-yemen/story?id=42832766", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/10/yemen-houthis-claim-attack-uae-military-vessel-161001212236896.html", "https://www.bing.com/images/search", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-exemptions-exclusive-idUSKCN1173LA", "http://www.ibtimes.co.in/iranian-vessels-harassed-american-ship-uss-nitze-says-us-defence-official-691656", "http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-08-25/iran-intercepts-us-warship-in-strait-of-hormuz", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/iran-guards-warn-saudis-over-gulf-war-games-093502033.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-iran-navy-idUSKCN11C1TL", "http://isis-online.org/uploads/isis-reports/documents/JCPOA_Exemptions_Revealed_1Sept2016_Final1.pdf", "http://www.nationalreview.com/article/432516/iran-nuclear-deal-iaea-reports-violations-disclosure", "http://www.thetower.org/pentagon-officials-armed-irgc-boats-swarmed-u-s-navy-ship-in-persian-gulf/", "http://www.thetower.org/4008-houthi-rocket-damages-uae-ship-raising-fears-of-iranian-control-of-strategic-strait/", "http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/10/03/us-warships-sent-to-area-where-iran-backed-rebels-attacked-saudi-led-coalition-ship.html", "https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-upgrades-diplomatic-relations-with-iran", "http://www.cbsnews.com/news/official-yemen-rebels-fire-2-missiles-at-navy-ship-us-responds-with-strikes/", "https://news.usni.org/2016/09/06/iranian-boats-harass-another-u-s-navy-patrol-coastal-ship-persian-gulf", "https://www.yahoo.com/gma/7-iranian-boats-harass-navy-ship-gulf-183806915--abc-news-topstories.html", "https://www.bing.com/images/search?q=irgc+navy&view=detailv2&&id=F6E99B9D1B5BEAA7531580EA75790856C1A53CF1&selectedIndex=127&ccid=5GNwN7gW&simid=608024330660544562&thid=OIP.Me4637037b816ca24806dfc647007b3c5o0&ajaxhist=0"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-08-02 | 0.0 | [["2016-08-02", 0.25], ["2016-08-02", 0.035], ["2016-08-02", 0.03], ["2016-08-02", 0.0], ["2016-08-02", 0.0], ["2016-08-02", 0.03], ["2016-08-02", 0.03], ["2016-08-02", 0.03], ["2016-08-02", 0.06], ["2016-08-02", 0.045], ["2016-08-02", 0.055], ["2016-08-03", 0.06], ["2016-08-03", 0.05], ["2016-08-03", 0.05], ["2016-08-03", 0.06], ["2016-08-03", 0.07], ["2016-08-03", 0.06], ["2016-08-03", 0.055], ["2016-08-03", 0.045], ["2016-08-03", 0.04], ["2016-08-03", 0.03], ["2016-08-03", 0.02], ["2016-08-03", 0.02], ["2016-08-04", 0.02], ["2016-08-04", 0.02], ["2016-08-04", 0.02], ["2016-08-04", 0.02], ["2016-08-04", 0.02], ["2016-08-04", 0.015], ["2016-08-04", 0.015], ["2016-08-04", 0.01], ["2016-08-04", 0.01], ["2016-08-04", 0.01], ["2016-08-04", 0.01], ["2016-08-05", 0.01], ["2016-08-05", 0.01], ["2016-08-05", 0.01], ["2016-08-05", 0.015], ["2016-08-05", 0.015], ["2016-08-05", 0.01], ["2016-08-05", 0.01], ["2016-08-05", 0.01], ["2016-08-05", 0.01], 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2017-06-27 | Before 1 January 2018, will the European Commission find Google liable in an antitrust case? | binary | The European Commission (EC) initiated multiple antitrust proceedings against Alphabet/Google, Inc in 2016 (<a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/31/technology/google-europe-antitrust.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.wsj.com/articles/google-ceo-to-meet-with-eu-antitrust-chief-1479314230"target="_blank">WSJ</a>, <a href = "http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/19/google-could-face-3-separate-antitrust-cases-eu-competition-chief.html"target="_blank">CNBC</a>), which Google has contested (<a href = "https://blog.google/topics/google-europe/android-choice-competition-response-europe/"target="_blank">Google</a>). For more information on the status of the European Commission's antitrust cases against Google see (<a href = "http://ec.europa.eu/competition/elojade/isef/index.cfm?fuseaction=dsp_result&case_title=Google&policy_area_id=1"target="_blank">European Comission</a>).
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<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/379"target = "_blank">the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration will grant a waiver allowing Amazon to test its unmanned aerial vehicles in 2017</a> or whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/376-will-a-u-s-state-enact-a-soda-tax-in-2017"target = "_blank">the US will enact a soda tax in 2017</a>.
<hr>
This question was closed as "yes" with an end date of 27 June, 2017 (<a href = "http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-17-1784_en.htm"target="_blank">The European Union</a>)
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<hr> | 2017-06-28 | gjopen | ["https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/jun/16/google-fine-eu-case-shopping-search-result", "http://www.nasdaq.com/article/eu-to-resolve-google-antitrust-cases-in-the-next-few-months-cm793420#ixzz4i7s374hS", "http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-17-1784_en.htm", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/27/technology/eu-google-fine.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-google-antitrust-idUSKBN18I1EV", "http://www.foundem.co.uk/Foundem_Google_Search_Remedies_March_2017.pdf", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/26/business/google-eu-fine-antitrust.html", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/washingtonbytes/2017/03/16/7-reasons-why-europes-antitrust-cases-against-google-are-a-big-deal/#33055fa1498f", "http://fortune.com/2017/05/10/apple-google-trade-europe/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-10/google-execs-hunker-down-for-summer-fight-with-eu-as-fines-loom", "https://www.wired.co.uk/article/margrethe-vestager-apple-facebook-google-antitrust-case", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/504231", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/504231", "http://ca.reuters.com/article/technologyNews/idCAKBN18I1EV-OCATC", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/16/business/eu-google-antitrust-fine.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-24/eu-said-to-search-for-google-solution-that-stands-test-of-time", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-google-antitrust-idUSKCN0XH0VX", "https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2017/03/google-facebook-twitter-must-comply-with-eu-consumer-law/", "https://www.ft.com/content/8b0ab7a8-5990-11e7-9bc8-8055f264aa8b", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/27/technology/eu-google-fine.html?_r=0", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/516957", "http://precursorblog.com/?q=content/google-takeaways-trump-antitrust-chief%E2%80%99s-senate-confirmation-hearing", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/475691", "https://europeansting.com/2017/05/10/eu-and-amazon-cut-deal-to-end-antitrust-investigation-over-e-books-deals/", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-google-antitrust-idUSKBN18I1EV"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-03-03 | 1.0 | [["2017-03-03", 0.45], ["2017-03-03", 0.2], ["2017-03-03", 0.35], ["2017-03-03", 0.38], ["2017-03-03", 0.355], ["2017-03-03", 0.45], ["2017-03-04", 0.45], ["2017-03-04", 0.45], ["2017-03-04", 0.475], ["2017-03-04", 0.45], ["2017-03-04", 0.45], ["2017-03-04", 0.4], ["2017-03-04", 0.4], ["2017-03-04", 0.365], ["2017-03-05", 0.32], ["2017-03-05", 0.305], ["2017-03-05", 0.31], ["2017-03-05", 0.33], ["2017-03-05", 0.315], ["2017-03-05", 0.3], ["2017-03-05", 0.275], ["2017-03-05", 0.25], ["2017-03-05", 0.25], ["2017-03-05", 0.27], ["2017-03-05", 0.285], ["2017-03-05", 0.31], ["2017-03-05", 0.31], ["2017-03-05", 0.3], ["2017-03-05", 0.27], ["2017-03-05", 0.285], ["2017-03-06", 0.325], ["2017-03-06", 0.325], ["2017-03-06", 0.325], ["2017-03-06", 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0.95], ["2017-06-27", 0.95], ["2017-06-27", 0.97], ["2017-06-27", 0.97]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/427 | True |
2017-01-27 | Before 30 April 2017, will the U.S. suspend immigration from any country designated as a state sponsor of terrorism or a terrorist safe haven? | binary | This question was resolves as "yes" with an end date of 27 January 2016 (<a href = "http://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2017-01-27/a-look-at-trumps-executive-order-on-refugees-immigration"target="_blank">US News</a>, <a href = "https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-expected-sign-directive-halting-refugee-flows-us-161856152--politics.html"target = "_blank">Yahoo! New</a>, <a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/27/us/politics/refugee-muslim-executive-order-trump.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
Part of President-elect Trump's plan for his first 100 days in office calls for the suspension of "immigration from terror-prone regions where vetting cannot safely occur" (<a href ="http://www.npr.org/2016/11/09/501451368/here-is-what-donald-trump-wants-to-do-in-his-first-100-days"target = "_blank">NPR </a>, <a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/19/us/politics/donald-trump-immigration.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>). The president has the power to suspend by proclamation entry of any particular class of citizens from designated countries (<a href = "https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/USCODE-2011-title8/html/USCODE-2011-title8-chap12-subchapII-partII-sec1182.htm"target = "_blank">8 USC §1182(f)</a>). The U.S. Department of State designates countries as "Terrorist Safe Havens" (<a href = "https://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/crt/2015/257522.htm"target = "_blank">U.S. Department of State </a>) and/or "State Sponsors of Terrorism" (<a href = "https://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/crt/2015/257520.htm" target = "_blank">U.S. Department of State</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/373" target = "_blank"> Rex Tillerson's Confirmation</a> or on the <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/377"target = "_blank"> U.S withdrawing from NAFTA</a>.</sub> | 2017-01-30 | gjopen | ["http://www.npr.org/2017/01/30/512066715/executive-order-or-memorandum-lets-call-the-whole-thing-an-action", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/27/us/politics/refugee-muslim-executive-order-trump.html?_r=1", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/28/us/refugees-detained-at-us-airports-prompting-legal-challenges-to-trumps-immigration-order.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/374-before-30-april-2017-will-the-u-s-suspend-immigration-from-any-country-designated-as-a-state-sponsor-of-terrorism-or-a-terrorist-safe-haven/www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-zones-russia-idUSKBN15A0WK?il=0", "http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/judge-grants-temporary-stay-trump-refugee-order-n713671", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/trumps-impending-bans-on-refugees-and-immigrants-triggers-fears-globally/2017/01/26/c698e67e-e33d-11e6-a419-eefe8eff0835_story.html?utm_term=.6206709bc40a&wpisrc=nl_most-draw7&wpmm=1", "https://ir.usembassy.gov/protecting-nation-foreign-terrorist-entry-united-states/", "https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/granule/USCODE-2011-title8/USCODE-2011-title8-chap12-subchapII-partII-sec1187", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/424671", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-immigration-sadr-iraq-idUSKBN15D0H9?il=0", "https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/executive-orders", "https://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/SLB/HTML/SLB/0-0-0-1/0-0-0-29/0-0-0-4391.html", "https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/01/trump-muslim-immigration-order/514460/", "https://www.cato.org/blog/guide-trumps-executive-order-limit-migration-national-security-reasons", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-38783512", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38787517", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/27/us/politics/refugee-muslim-executive-order-trump.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-executiveorders-idUSKBN15B1SS?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=Social", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2017/01/27/annotated-the-trump-administrations-executive-order-on-refugees-and-immigrants/?utm_term=.c6654279291d", "http://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions", "http://www.npr.org/2017/01/26/511851716/trump-renews-consideration-of-military-safe-zones-in-syria", "http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/1/25/14390106/leaked-drafts-trump-immigrants-executive-order", "http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/01/26/donald-trump-muslim-abc-news-interview/97077644/", "http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/refugees-detained-at-us-airports-prompting-legal-challenges-to-trump%E2%80%99s-immigration-order/ar-AAmlusq"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-12-27 | 1.0 | [["2016-12-27", 0.795], ["2016-12-27", 0.775], ["2016-12-27", 0.8], ["2016-12-27", 0.575], ["2016-12-27", 0.11], ["2016-12-27", 0.38], ["2016-12-28", 0.725], ["2016-12-28", 0.8], ["2016-12-28", 0.725], ["2016-12-28", 0.75], ["2016-12-28", 0.65], ["2016-12-28", 0.6], ["2016-12-28", 0.75], ["2016-12-28", 0.75], ["2016-12-29", 0.75], ["2016-12-29", 0.7], ["2016-12-29", 0.75], ["2016-12-29", 0.75], ["2016-12-29", 0.625], ["2016-12-29", 0.61], ["2016-12-29", 0.525], ["2016-12-29", 0.44], ["2016-12-29", 0.44], ["2016-12-29", 0.44], ["2016-12-30", 0.63], ["2016-12-30", 0.65], ["2016-12-30", 0.65], ["2016-12-30", 0.65], ["2016-12-30", 0.7], ["2016-12-30", 0.675], ["2016-12-30", 0.7], ["2016-12-31", 0.7], ["2016-12-31", 0.725], ["2016-12-31", 0.75], ["2016-12-31", 0.75], 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["2017-01-27", 0.77], ["2017-01-27", 0.77]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/374 | True |
2018-04-01 | Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Iraq engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Iraq?
| binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Iraq from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
<hr>
This question closed as No. (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/EWPJan2018Dec2018"target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a>)
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. | 2019-12-09 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-12-28 | 0.0 | [["2017-12-28", 1.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.025], ["2017-12-29", 0.05], ["2017-12-29", 0.025], ["2017-12-29", 0.05], ["2017-12-29", 0.02], ["2017-12-29", 0.06], ["2017-12-29", 0.1], ["2017-12-29", 0.06], ["2017-12-30", 0.06], ["2017-12-30", 0.085], ["2017-12-31", 0.085], ["2017-12-31", 0.085], ["2017-12-31", 0.15], ["2017-12-31", 0.15], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.035], ["2017-12-31", 0.075], ["2017-12-31", 0.075], ["2017-12-31", 0.1], ["2017-12-31", 0.1], ["2017-12-31", 0.15], ["2017-12-31", 0.175], ["2017-12-31", 0.175], ["2017-12-31", 0.225], ["2017-12-31", 0.3], ["2017-12-31", 0.35], ["2017-12-31", 0.35], ["2017-12-31", 0.36], ["2017-12-31", 0.36], 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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/825 | True |
2018-01-01 | Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?
| binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 December 2017 and will be resolved in October 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in the Philippines from October 2017 through September 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this.
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<hr>
This question was closed as 'No' (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2018/12/06/early-warning-project-question-resolutions-october-1-2017-september-30-2018/"target="_blank">EWP/Good Judgment</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| 2019-12-09 | gjopen | ["https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/02/world/asia/philippines-rodrigo-duterte-drugs.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fasia&action=click&contentCollection=asia&region=strea", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-drugs/philippines-war-on-drugs-and-crime-intensifies-at-least-60-killed-in-three-days-idUSKCN1AX0BO"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-09-29 | 0.0 | [["2017-09-29", 1.0], ["2017-09-29", 0.01], ["2017-09-29", 0.505], ["2017-09-29", 0.51], ["2017-09-29", 0.435], ["2017-10-01", 0.85], ["2017-10-01", 0.85], ["2017-10-01", 0.43], ["2017-10-01", 0.005], ["2017-10-01", 0.0], ["2017-10-01", 0.0], ["2017-10-02", 0.01], ["2017-10-02", 0.105], ["2017-10-02", 0.525], ["2017-10-02", 0.525], ["2017-10-03", 0.525], ["2017-10-03", 0.32], ["2017-10-03", 0.2], ["2017-10-03", 0.2], ["2017-10-03", 0.175], ["2017-10-03", 0.095], ["2017-10-03", 0.095], ["2017-10-03", 0.025], ["2017-10-03", 0.02], ["2017-10-03", 0.02], ["2017-10-03", 0.03], 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2019-10-01 | Will China's National People's Congress or its Standing Committee pass a property tax law before 1 October 2019? | binary | China's National People's Congress Standing Committee has initiated the legislative process to codify property taxes into law, with large implications for China's $44 trillion real estate market (<a href="https://worldin2019.economist.com/Chinaseconomy" target="_blank">The Economist</a>, <a href="https://npcobserver.com/2018/08/14/tracking-chinas-progress-towards-law-based-taxation/" "https:="" npcobserver.com="" 2018="" 08="" 14="" tracking-chinas-progress-towards-law-based-taxation="" "target="_blank">NPC Observer</a>, <a href="http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1118788.shtml" target="_blank">Global Times</a>, <a href=" https://www.scmp.com/business/money/wealth/article/2135755/fleeting-relief-chinas-homeowners-property-tax-inches-its-way" target="_blank">SCMP</a>).<p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); outline: -webkit-focus-ring-color auto 5px; outline-offset: -2px; font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a>.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p> | 2019-10-01 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2018-12-21 | 0.0 | [["2018-12-22", 0.51], ["2018-12-22", 0.1], ["2018-12-22", 0.15], 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2015-12-16 | Will the US federal-funds rate be increased before the end of the year [2015]? | binary | The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (<a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalfundsrate.asp" target="_blank">http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalfundsrate.asp</a>). The target for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (<a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm" target="_blank">http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm</a>). For more information on interest rates and the recovery of the US economy see <a href="http://www.theworldin.com/article/10475" target="_blank">http://www.theworldin.com/article/10475</a>. | 2015-12-17 | gjopen | ["http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-15/he-fed-s-new-chapter-will-be-written-in-dollar-denominated-oil", "http://business.financialpost.com/investing/global-investor/imagine-a-world-in-2016-where-black-swans-really-do-come-true", "http://www.thetakeaway.org/story/all-eyes-fed-interest-hike/", "http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/dec/14/markets-fed-week-jittery-mood-business-live?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+USA+-+Version+CB+thumb&utm_term=143625&subid=1303551&CMP=ema_565b", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8SbJIlEd6jA", "http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/18/most-participants-at-fed-meeting-thought-december-hike-appropriate-minutes.html", "http://jobs.....while/", "http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20151216a1.pdf", "http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html", "http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/16/fed-raises-rates-for-first-time-since-2006.html", "http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35100030", "http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20151216a.htm", "http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-12-16/fed-increase-is-the-most-important-thing-ever-oh-wait-", "http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/52ebe58c-a275-11e5-bc70-7ff6d4fd203a.html#slide0", "https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/5-the-economist-s-world-in-2016/scores", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/54887", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-14/junk-bond-misery-backs-fed-case-for-gradual-rate-rise-no-delay", "http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/15/upshot/why-very-low-interest-rates-may-stick-around.html", "http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/12/16/459989461/federal-reserve-announces-hike-in-short-term-interest-rates", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-15/the-bizarre-theory-that-says-fed-increases-will-spur-inflation", "http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/17/business/economy/fed-interest-rates.html", "http://happen...subsequent/", "http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b24228f6-a348-11e5-bc70-7ff6d4fd203a.html#axzz3uPAJOS7x", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqsT4xnKZPg", "http://on.mktw.net/1QnJ82G"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2015-09-07 | 1.0 | [["2015-09-08", 0.8], ["2015-09-09", 0.765], ["2015-09-09", 0.79], ["2015-09-09", 0.765], ["2015-09-09", 0.765], ["2015-09-09", 0.78], ["2015-09-09", 0.78], ["2015-09-09", 0.75], ["2015-09-09", 0.75], ["2015-09-10", 0.75], ["2015-09-10", 0.75], ["2015-09-10", 0.75], ["2015-09-10", 0.75], ["2015-09-10", 0.75], ["2015-09-10", 0.75], ["2015-09-11", 0.75], ["2015-09-11", 0.75], ["2015-09-11", 0.75], ["2015-09-11", 0.75], ["2015-09-12", 0.75], ["2015-09-12", 0.75], ["2015-09-13", 0.75], ["2015-09-13", 0.75], ["2015-09-13", 0.75], 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2017-12-31 | Will Great Britain announce a second referendum on Brexit by 31 December 2017? | binary | Some CEO's and Government officials have begun to call for a second referendum on Brexit (<a href = "http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/anti-brexit-momentum-gaining-in-britain-a-1179590.html"target="_blank">Spiegel</a>, <a href = "https://www.ft.com/content/2b7c4192-d04d-11e7-9dbb-291a884dd8c6"target="_blank">Financial Times</a>, <a href = "https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/nov/16/goldman-sachs-boss-calls-for-second-brexit-referendum"target="_blank">The Guardian</a>, <a href = "https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/880409/Brexit-second-EU-referendum-Theresa-May-Katarina-Barley-Germany"target="_blank">Daily Express</a>, <a href = "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/09/gordon-brown-urges-jeremy-corbyn-back-second-eu-referendum-brexit/"target="_blank">The Telegraph</a>). Question will resolve as "yes" if a credible media outlet (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters) reports that an official decision to hold a second referendum has been made.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
| 2018-01-02 | gjopen | ["http://www.politicalbetting.com/", "https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/01/project-fear-brexit-cold-reality-vote-again-second-referendum", "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/britons-majority-in-favour-of-public-vote-on-final-brexit-deal-uk-politics-a8089161.html", "https://www.facebook.com/MetroUK/", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-vote/half-of-britons-support-a-second-vote-on-brexit-poll-finds-idUSKBN1DX0P6", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/29/key-dates-before-eu-summit-decides-on-brexit-progress", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/756-will-great-britain-announce-a-second-referendum-on-brexit-by-31-december-2017/www.politicalbetting.com", "https://www.ft.com/content/70c3a85c-d5ee-11e7-8c9a-d9c0a5c8d5c9", "https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/895363/brexit-news-eu-uk-progress-christmas-2018-brexit-timeline-what-next", "http://metro.co.uk/2017/12/03/voters-want-second-brexit-referendum-after-50000000-bill-revealed-7127604/?ito=cbshare", "https://twitter.com/MetroUK"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-11-28 | 0.0 | [["2017-11-29", 0.25], ["2017-11-29", 0.01], ["2017-11-29", 0.005], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.015], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 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2018-07-01 | Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe?
| binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2018 and will be resolved in April 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Zimbabwe from April 2018 to March 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples" target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.<p></p><hr><p></p><p>This question closed as No. (<u><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpapril2018mar2019" target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a></u>)</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p> | 2019-05-20 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2018-04-02 | 0.0 | [["2018-04-02", 0.0], ["2018-04-03", 0.0], ["2018-04-03", 0.0], ["2018-04-03", 0.275], ["2018-04-03", 0.4], ["2018-04-03", 0.3], ["2018-04-03", 0.25], ["2018-04-03", 0.2], ["2018-04-04", 0.075], ["2018-04-04", 0.015], ["2018-04-04", 0.0], ["2018-04-04", 0.0], ["2018-04-04", 0.03], ["2018-04-04", 0.05], ["2018-04-04", 0.04], ["2018-04-05", 0.03], ["2018-04-06", 0.03], ["2018-04-06", 0.01], ["2018-04-06", 0.01], ["2018-04-06", 0.005], ["2018-04-07", 0.005], ["2018-04-07", 0.005], ["2018-04-07", 0.005], ["2018-04-07", 0.01], ["2018-04-08", 0.01], ["2018-04-08", 0.02], ["2018-04-09", 0.02], ["2018-04-10", 0.015], ["2018-04-10", 0.015], ["2018-04-10", 0.035], ["2018-04-11", 0.035], ["2018-04-12", 0.02], ["2018-04-13", 0.02], ["2018-04-14", 0.05], ["2018-04-15", 0.05], ["2018-04-16", 0.05], ["2018-04-16", 0.05], ["2018-04-19", 0.03], ["2018-04-19", 0.03], ["2018-04-20", 0.03], ["2018-04-22", 0.05], ["2018-04-25", 0.05], ["2018-04-25", 0.05], ["2018-04-29", 0.04], ["2018-05-01", 0.04], ["2018-05-02", 0.04], ["2018-05-02", 0.01], ["2018-05-02", 0.01], ["2018-05-07", 0.02], ["2018-05-09", 0.02], ["2018-05-10", 0.02], ["2018-05-11", 0.01], ["2018-05-12", 0.01], ["2018-05-13", 0.01], ["2018-05-14", 0.01], ["2018-05-14", 0.01], ["2018-05-16", 0.01], ["2018-05-17", 0.01], ["2018-05-17", 0.01], ["2018-05-19", 0.01], ["2018-05-22", 0.01], ["2018-05-22", 0.01], ["2018-05-23", 0.01], ["2018-05-24", 0.01], ["2018-05-24", 0.01], ["2018-05-26", 0.01], ["2018-05-26", 0.01], ["2018-05-28", 0.01], ["2018-05-30", 0.0], ["2018-05-30", 0.01], ["2018-05-31", 0.005], ["2018-05-31", 0.005], ["2018-06-01", 0.0], ["2018-06-01", 0.005], ["2018-06-02", 0.005], ["2018-06-04", 0.005], ["2018-06-04", 0.005], ["2018-06-08", 0.005], ["2018-06-11", 0.005], ["2018-06-12", 0.0], ["2018-06-13", 0.0], ["2018-06-14", 0.0], ["2018-06-15", 0.0], ["2018-06-16", 0.0], ["2018-06-16", 0.0], ["2018-06-17", 0.0], ["2018-06-18", 0.0], ["2018-06-20", 0.0], ["2018-06-22", 0.0], ["2018-06-23", 0.005], ["2018-06-23", 0.005], ["2018-06-23", 0.005], ["2018-06-24", 0.005], ["2018-06-24", 0.01], ["2018-06-26", 0.01], ["2018-06-27", 0.01], ["2018-06-27", 0.01], ["2018-06-27", 0.01], ["2018-06-28", 0.015], ["2018-06-29", 0.015], ["2018-06-29", 0.015], ["2018-06-30", 0.035], ["2018-07-01", 0.035]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/909 | True |
2017-08-01 | Before 1 August 2017, will the US president sign legislation that eliminates or caps the tax exemption on municipal bond interest? | binary | Under present federal income tax law, the interest received from municipal bonds is free from federal income taxes (<a href = "http://www.investinginbonds.com/learnmore.asp?catid=8&subcatid=53&id=233"target="_blank">The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association</a>). The Republican-controlled Congress has put tax reform high on the agenda and may try to eliminate or cap the tax exemptions on municipal bonds (<a href = "https://www.bna.com/states-cities-ask-n57982086319/"target="-blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href = "https://www.bna.com/state-deduction-among-n57982086124/"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href = "http://thehill.com/policy/finance/321881-mnuchin-promises-tax-reform-by-august"target="_blank">The Hill</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
The US president did not sign legislation eliminating or capping the tax exemption on municipal bond interest. This question closed as "b) no".
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
| 2017-08-10 | gjopen | ["https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/mcconnell-delays-august-recess-to-complete-work-on-health-care-bill-other-issues/2017/07/11/1d90e3d2-6647-11e7-9928-22d00a47778f_story.html", "https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/basics/investment-products/municipal-bonds", "http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/nn/articles/Municipal-Bonds-When-Tax-Free-Isn-t-So-Free", "http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-municipal-bonds-20161118-story.html"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-04-11 | 0.0 | [["2017-04-11", 0.08], ["2017-04-11", 0.04], ["2017-04-11", 0.0], ["2017-04-11", 0.0], ["2017-04-12", 0.0], ["2017-04-12", 0.0], ["2017-04-12", 0.0], ["2017-04-12", 0.0], ["2017-04-12", 0.0], ["2017-04-12", 0.0], ["2017-04-13", 0.0], ["2017-04-13", 0.0], ["2017-04-13", 0.005], ["2017-04-13", 0.005], ["2017-04-13", 0.0], ["2017-04-14", 0.01], ["2017-04-14", 0.005], ["2017-04-14", 0.01], ["2017-04-14", 0.0], ["2017-04-14", 0.0], ["2017-04-15", 0.0], 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2018-04-01 | Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?
| binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Nigeria from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as No. (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/EWPJan2018Dec2018"target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a>)
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. | 2019-12-09 | gjopen | ["https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/23/refugees-die-starvation-illness-nigeria-camp-bama-boko-haram", "https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/09/27/cameroon-mass-forced-return-nigerian-refugees", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/world/nigeria-boko-haram/", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-42735414?ocid=socialflow_twitter", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-42735414", "https://public.tableau.com/views/Africa-APeriodofUnrest1997-2017/Dashboard1?:embed=y&:display_count=yes&:toolbar=no&:showVizHome=no", "http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/04/hunger-amplifies-infectious-diseases-millions-fleeing-violence-boko-haram", "https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2018/country-chapters/nigeria", "https://www.crisis.acleddata.com/nigeria-september-2017-update/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-12-28 | 0.0 | [["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.175], ["2017-12-29", 0.3], ["2017-12-29", 0.125], ["2017-12-29", 0.25], ["2017-12-29", 0.01], ["2017-12-29", 0.055], ["2017-12-29", 0.125], ["2017-12-29", 0.055], ["2017-12-29", 0.055], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.03], ["2017-12-31", 0.04], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.22], ["2017-12-31", 0.185], ["2017-12-31", 0.235], ["2017-12-31", 0.235], ["2017-12-31", 0.22], ["2018-01-01", 0.22], ["2018-01-01", 0.185], ["2018-01-01", 0.185], ["2018-01-01", 0.175], ["2018-01-01", 0.15], ["2018-01-01", 0.15], ["2018-01-01", 0.15], ["2018-01-01", 0.135], ["2018-01-01", 0.135], ["2018-01-01", 0.135], ["2018-01-02", 0.12], ["2018-01-02", 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2017-10-01 | Will the U.S. Department of Justice approve AT&T's bid for Time Warner before 1 October 2017? | binary | The regulatory decision over AT&T's bid for Time Warner awaits the new administration (<a href = "http://www.theworldin.com/article/12757/waving-goodbye"target="_blank">The Economist</a>, <a href = "http://blogs.wsj.com/briefly/2017/02/02/5-things-to-look-for-in-snaps-ipo-filing/"target="_blank">WSJ</a>, <a href = "http://www.businessinsider.com/what-to-expect-from-snapchats-ipo-filing-2017-1"target="_blank">Business Insider</a> and <a href = "http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/30/snap-to-choose-nyse-for-ipo-source.html"target="_blank">CNBC</a>). For more information on the Department of Justice's role in merger approval see: <a href = "https://www.benton.org/blog/how-department-justice-federal-trade-commission-and-federal-communications-commission-regulate"target="_blank">Benton</a>.
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<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/385"target="_blank">Verizon and Yahoo will conclude their merger before 1 June 2017?</a> or on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/379"target="_blank">the FAA will grant a waiver allowing Amazon to test its unmanned aerial vehicles before 1 January 2018</a>.</sub>
<hr>
The Justice department has not approved the AT&T/Time Warner Merger. This question closed as "No," with and end date of 1 October 2017.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
| 2017-10-04 | gjopen | ["https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/09/technology/att-time-warner-merger.html", "http://marketrealist.com/2017/08/whats-really-stalling-the-att-time-warner-merger/", "http://www.knoxnews.com/story/opinion/columnists/mark-harmon/2017/08/30/hold-line-against-media-oligopolies/616407001/", "http://deadline.com/2017/08/brazilian-antitrust-officials-question-att-bid-time-warner-1202153653/", "http://www.foxbusiness.com/features/2017/08/18/trump-threatened-to-kill-at-t-time-warner-deal-but-its-very-much-alive.html", "http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/wall-street-journal/att-makes-progress-in-bid-for-time-warner/news-story/f7a2aa2b46515911620f31d89b97fdab", "http://www.foxbusiness.com/features/2017/09/27/senate-confirms-makan-delrahim-as-antitrust-chief-at-justice-department.html", "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world-0/us-politics/donald-trump-time-warner-atandt-merger-block-cnn-boss-jeff-zucker-ousted-a7829366.html"", "https://www.thestreet.com/story/14301838/1/att-time-warner-deal.html", "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world-0/us-politics/donald-trump-time-warner-atandt-merger-block-cnn-boss-jeff-zucker-ousted-a7829366.html", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-threatened-to-kill-the-at-t-time-warner-deal-but-its-very-much-alive-1502998077", "https://seekingalpha.com/article/4101256-t-time-warner-latest-merger-update", "http://on.wsj.com/2wgazYa", "http://nypost.com/2017/08/07/dc-politics-delays-att-time-warner-deal/", "http://www.atimes.com/att-ceo-stephenson-takes-alphabet-time-warner-bid/", "http://www.latimes.com/business/hollywood/la-fi-ct-stankey-att-time-warner-culture-20170907-htmlstory.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/554860", "https://youtu.be/Oci1CuCht7E", "http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/elizabeth-warren-refuses-to-meet-trump-nominee-shes-blocking-for-justice-antitrust-division/article/2631317", "http://www.barrons.com/articles/at-t-still-sees-time-warner-buy-by-year-end-1503309193", "http://ew.com/tv/2017/08/15/cnn-trump-ad-criticizing-journalists/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/05/business/media/jeffrey-zucker-cnn-trump.html?emc=edit_mbe_20170706&nl=morning-briefing-europe&nlid=77825025&te=1&_r=0", "https://seekingalpha.com/article/4106050-t-time-warner-coming-home-stretch", "http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/elizabeth-warren-lifts-hold-on-justice-department-antitrust-nominee/article/2635349", "http://marketrealist.com/2017/08/why-atts-new-structure-suggests-confidence-in-twx-deal-approval/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-02-07 | 0.0 | [["2017-02-07", 0.815], ["2017-02-07", 0.5], ["2017-02-07", 0.525], ["2017-02-07", 0.68], ["2017-02-07", 0.68], ["2017-02-08", 0.68], ["2017-02-08", 0.68], ["2017-02-08", 0.65], ["2017-02-08", 0.68], ["2017-02-09", 0.65], ["2017-02-09", 0.64], ["2017-02-09", 0.68], ["2017-02-09", 0.69], ["2017-02-09", 0.7], 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2019-03-01 | Before 1 March 2019, will the U.S. impose Global Magnitsky Sanctions on any member of Saudi Arabia's Council of Ministers for the death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi? | binary | Jamal Khashoggi's death has triggered an international outcry (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-politics-dissident/saudi-arabia-admits-khashoggi-died-in-consulate-fires-two-senior-officials-idUSKCN1MT1MH" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/22/world/middleeast/khashoggi-saudi-israel.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>). On 10 October, the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations invoked the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act, requiring President Trump to determine whether any foreign individual, including "the highest ranking officials in the Government of Saudi Arabia," is responsible for extrajudicial killing, torture, or gross violations of human rights in the Khashoggi case (<a href="https://www.foreign.senate.gov/press/chair/release/corker-menendez-graham-leahy-letter-triggers-global-magnitsky-investigation-into-disappearance-of-jamal-khashoggi" target="_blank">U.S Senate Committee on Foreign Relations</a>). President Trump has 120 days to make a determination and decide whether to impose sanctions (<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/10/12/what-is-the-global-magnitsky-act-and-why-are-u-s-senators-invoking-this-on-saudi-arabia/" target="_blank">The Washington Post</a>, <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/61030/explainer-senates-letter-khashoggi-global-magnitsky-act/" target="_Blank">Just Security</a>).
<hr>
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["2019-02-27", 0.01], ["2019-02-27", 0.01], ["2019-02-27", 0.01], ["2019-02-28", 0.01], ["2019-02-28", 0.01], ["2019-02-28", 0.01], ["2019-02-28", 0.01], ["2019-02-28", 0.01], ["2019-02-28", 0.01], ["2019-02-28", 0.01], ["2019-02-28", 0.01], ["2019-02-28", 0.01], ["2019-02-28", 0.01], ["2019-02-28", 0.01], ["2019-02-28", 0.01], ["2019-02-28", 0.01], ["2019-02-28", 0.01], ["2019-02-28", 0.01], ["2019-02-28", 0.01], ["2019-02-28", 0.01], ["2019-02-28", 0.01], ["2019-02-28", 0.01], ["2019-02-28", 0.01], ["2019-02-28", 0.01], ["2019-03-01", 0.01], ["2019-03-01", 0.01]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1033 | True |
2016-07-01 | Will President Putin meet with Prime Minister Abe in Japan before 1 July 2016? | binary | This question resolved on 30 June 2016: The two leaders met in Sochi, Russia in May, and Putin is rumored to be considering a trip to PM Abe's hometown later this year (<a href="http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/05/07/national/politics-diplomacy/abe-meets-putin-advance-bilateral-talks-isle-row-peace-treaty/#.V3J-ufkrLrd" target="_blank">Japan Times 1</a>, <a href="http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/05/18/national/politics-diplomacy/aide-says-putin-visit-year-urges-japan-separate-economic-cooperation-isle-row/#.V3J_BfkrLrd" target="_blank">Japan Times 2</a>)
President Putin and Prime Minister Abe discussed a state visit on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in September of 2015, despite US reservations to warming relations (<a href = "http://thediplomat.com/2015/09/putin-to-visit-tokyo-as-japan-russia-restart-peace-talks/" target = "_blank">The Diplomat</a>, <a href = "http://www.japantoday.com/category/opinions/view/will-an-abe-putin-summit-help-ease-russia-and-japans-strained-relations" target = "_blank">Japan Today</a>, <a href = "http://www.rferl.org/content/us-raises-concerns-japan-russia-talks-amid-sanctions/27298383.html" target = "_blank">Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty</a>).
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<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/79-will-vladimir-putin-attend-the-nuclear-security-summit-in-washington-dc-in-march-2016" target = "_blank">Will Vladimir Putin attend the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, DC, in March 2016?</a> | 2016-07-05 | gjopen | ["http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/91298", "http://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/abe-putin-to-negotiate-on-territories-peace-treaty-1.408499", "http://www.japantoday.com/smartphone/view/politics/abe-putin-agree-to-advance-japan-russia-territorial-talks", "http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/t1373744.shtml", "http://tass.ru/en/politics/882485", "http://sputniknews.com/politics/20160617/1041483993/putin-could-meet-abe-september.html#ixzz4BynMAeZt", "http://thediplomat.com/2016/06/is-the-japan-russia-honeymoon-over-before-it-even-began/", "http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/05/20/national/politics-diplomacy/putin-may-visit-december-meet-abe-yamaguchi/#.Vz66ZtRXerV", "http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0Y81JL", "http://tass.ru/en/politics/875809", "https://www.rt.com/op-edge/342268-japan-russia-abe-putin-us/", "http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/International-Relations/Abe-looks-to-follow-up-Putin-summit-with-security-talks", "http://www.aseminfoboard.org/events/11th-asem-summit-asem11", "http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/05/11/national/politics-diplomacy/putin-may-pay-visit-abes-home-turf-yamaguchi/#.VzMFxMhXeEd", "http://m.sputniknews.com/politics/20160510/1039390784/japan-russia-relations-prospects.html", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/14/gitrep-13may2016pm/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/18/gitrep-17mar16pm/", "http://www.australianetworknews.com/russian-president-vladimir-putin-threatens-nato/", "http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/05/11/national/politics-diplomacy/putin-may-pay-visit-abes-home-turf-yamaguchi/#.VzPaW2Nh0dw", "http://www.asem11.mn/", "http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/05/11/national/politics-diplomacy/putin-may-pay-visit-abes-home-turf-yamaguchi/", "http://www.japantoday.com/category/politics/view/abe-putin-agree-to-advance-japan-russia-territorial-talks", "http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/International-Relations/Putin-likely-to-visit-Japan-at-year-s-end-report", "http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/05/06/national/politics-diplomacy/putin-invite-abe-september-vladivostok-economic-forum/#.Vyw5zdieqnM", "http://www.japantoday.com/category/politics/view/japan-russia-hold-talks-on-elusive-wwii-peace-treaty"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2015-10-27 | 0.0 | [["2015-10-27", 0.775], ["2015-10-27", 0.575], ["2015-10-27", 0.6], ["2015-10-27", 0.65], ["2015-10-27", 0.55], ["2015-10-28", 0.45], ["2015-10-28", 0.4], ["2015-10-28", 0.35], ["2015-10-28", 0.35], ["2015-10-28", 0.35], ["2015-10-28", 0.35], ["2015-10-28", 0.34], ["2015-10-28", 0.35], ["2015-10-28", 0.3], ["2015-10-28", 0.315], 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["2016-06-29", 0.0], ["2016-06-30", 0.0], ["2016-07-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/64 | True |
2018-07-01 | Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Pakistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Pakistan?
| binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2018 and will be resolved in April 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Pakistan from April 2018 to March 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples" target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.<p></p><hr><p></p><p>This question closed as No. (<u><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpapril2018mar2019" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(22, 107, 118); outline: -webkit-focus-ring-color auto 5px; outline-offset: -2px;">EWP/GJOpen</a></u>)</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p> | 2019-05-20 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2018-04-02 | 0.0 | [["2018-04-02", 0.0], ["2018-04-03", 0.05], ["2018-04-03", 0.125], ["2018-04-03", 0.105], ["2018-04-03", 0.08], ["2018-04-03", 0.095], ["2018-04-03", 0.15], ["2018-04-03", 0.32], ["2018-04-03", 0.275], ["2018-04-04", 0.275], ["2018-04-04", 0.165], ["2018-04-04", 0.1], ["2018-04-04", 0.05], ["2018-04-04", 0.05], ["2018-04-04", 0.04], ["2018-04-05", 0.04], ["2018-04-05", 0.025], ["2018-04-06", 0.02], ["2018-04-06", 0.01], ["2018-04-07", 0.01], ["2018-04-07", 0.01], ["2018-04-07", 0.01], ["2018-04-08", 0.015], ["2018-04-09", 0.01], ["2018-04-10", 0.01], ["2018-04-11", 0.01], ["2018-04-12", 0.01], ["2018-04-12", 0.02], ["2018-04-13", 0.02], ["2018-04-14", 0.025], ["2018-04-15", 0.025], ["2018-04-16", 0.03], ["2018-04-16", 0.03], ["2018-04-19", 0.03], ["2018-04-19", 0.03], ["2018-04-20", 0.03], ["2018-04-23", 0.03], ["2018-04-25", 0.03], ["2018-04-25", 0.03], ["2018-04-29", 0.03], ["2018-04-29", 0.03], ["2018-05-01", 0.03], ["2018-05-02", 0.03], ["2018-05-02", 0.01], ["2018-05-03", 0.01], ["2018-05-09", 0.01], ["2018-05-10", 0.01], ["2018-05-11", 0.01], ["2018-05-11", 0.01], ["2018-05-12", 0.01], ["2018-05-13", 0.01], ["2018-05-14", 0.01], ["2018-05-14", 0.01], ["2018-05-16", 0.01], ["2018-05-17", 0.01], ["2018-05-17", 0.01], ["2018-05-22", 0.01], ["2018-05-24", 0.01], ["2018-05-24", 0.01], ["2018-05-26", 0.01], ["2018-05-26", 0.01], ["2018-05-28", 0.01], ["2018-05-30", 0.01], ["2018-05-31", 0.01], ["2018-05-31", 0.01], ["2018-06-01", 0.005], ["2018-06-01", 0.005], ["2018-06-02", 0.01], ["2018-06-04", 0.01], ["2018-06-08", 0.01], ["2018-06-11", 0.01], ["2018-06-12", 0.01], ["2018-06-13", 0.01], ["2018-06-14", 0.01], ["2018-06-15", 0.01], ["2018-06-16", 0.01], ["2018-06-16", 0.01], ["2018-06-17", 0.01], ["2018-06-18", 0.01], ["2018-06-20", 0.01], ["2018-06-22", 0.01], ["2018-06-23", 0.01], ["2018-06-23", 0.01], ["2018-06-23", 0.01], ["2018-06-24", 0.01], ["2018-06-24", 0.01], ["2018-06-26", 0.01], ["2018-06-27", 0.01], ["2018-06-27", 0.01], ["2018-06-27", 0.02], ["2018-06-28", 0.035], ["2018-06-29", 0.035], ["2018-06-29", 0.035], ["2018-06-29", 0.035], ["2018-07-01", 0.035]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/914 | True |
2017-07-01 | Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic? | binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in the Central African Republic from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ Open</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on other questions in this challenge: <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/16-early-warning-project-2017-2018"target = "_blank">Early Warning Project 2017 - 2018</a></sub>
This question was closed as no (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/ewp"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| 2019-12-05 | gjopen | ["http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/05/100-killed-car-fighting-170517025938882.html", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-40350057", "http://news.sky.com/story/congo-militia-attack-babies-and-toddlers-in-wave-of-violence-10921274?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/06/100-killed-car-bria-truce-deal-170621135739791.html"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-03-31 | 0.0 | [["2017-03-31", 0.25], ["2017-03-31", 0.35], ["2017-03-31", 0.16], ["2017-03-31", 0.255], ["2017-03-31", 0.175], ["2017-03-31", 0.475], ["2017-03-31", 0.2], ["2017-03-31", 0.2], ["2017-04-01", 0.11], ["2017-04-01", 0.035], ["2017-04-01", 0.035], ["2017-04-01", 0.05], ["2017-04-01", 0.06], ["2017-04-01", 0.055], ["2017-04-01", 0.055], ["2017-04-01", 0.055], ["2017-04-02", 0.055], ["2017-04-02", 0.05], ["2017-04-02", 0.05], ["2017-04-02", 0.05], ["2017-04-02", 0.085], ["2017-04-02", 0.085], ["2017-04-03", 0.085], ["2017-04-03", 0.1], ["2017-04-03", 0.1], 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0.13], ["2017-06-21", 0.13], ["2017-06-22", 0.165], ["2017-06-22", 0.165], ["2017-06-22", 0.165], ["2017-06-23", 0.165], ["2017-06-23", 0.165], ["2017-06-23", 0.165], ["2017-06-23", 0.165], ["2017-06-23", 0.13], ["2017-06-23", 0.13], ["2017-06-23", 0.13], ["2017-06-23", 0.13], ["2017-06-24", 0.13], ["2017-06-24", 0.13], ["2017-06-25", 0.13], ["2017-06-25", 0.115], ["2017-06-26", 0.13], ["2017-06-26", 0.13], ["2017-06-26", 0.13], ["2017-06-27", 0.1], ["2017-06-27", 0.1], ["2017-06-28", 0.1], ["2017-06-29", 0.1], ["2017-06-29", 0.1], ["2017-06-29", 0.1], ["2017-06-29", 0.1], ["2017-06-29", 0.1], ["2017-06-30", 0.1], ["2017-06-30", 0.1], ["2017-07-01", 0.1], ["2017-07-01", 0.1]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/451 | True |
2017-02-01 | Will Rex Tillerson be confirmed by the Senate as secretary of state before 30 April 2017? | binary | This question was closed as "yes" with an end date of 1 February 2017 (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/01/us/politics/rex-tillerson-secretary-of-state-confirmed.html"target = "_blank">NY Times</a>).
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<hr>
President-elect Trump has announced ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson as his pick for secretary of state. Tillerson's ties to Russia have led to criticism of his nomination by both Republicans and Democrats (<a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-picks-exxonmobil-ceo-rex-tillerson-for-secretary-of-state/2016/12/12/23ce9c80-c0e3-11e6-897f-918837dae0ae_story.html" target = "_blank">Washington Post</a>, <a href = "http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/trump-cabinet-democrats-senate-232136" target = "_blank">Politico</a>)."
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/195" target="_blank">whether the DAPA program will be implemented before inauguration day</a> or on <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/374"target = "_blank">Trump's Immigration Ban</a>.</sub> | 2017-02-02 | gjopen | ["http://www.businessinsider.com/carter-page-trump-russia-igor-sechin-dossier-2017-1", "http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8672672.stm", "https://www.lawfareblog.com/what-do-we-know-about-investigations-trump-associates-ties-russia", "http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/trump-nomination-to-lead-state-picks-up-support-in-senate/articleshow/56724270.cms", "http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/the-latest-sen-mccain-says-hell-support-rex-tillerson/articleshow/56719875.cms", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-congress-tillerson-idUSKBN15E2SW", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-congress-mattis-idUSKBN1542VA", "https://www.facebook.com/SenatorMarcoRubio/posts/1542347642457261", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/josh-rogin/wp/2017/01/26/the-state-departments-entire-senior-management-team-just-resigned/?utm_term=.9911eac7e2fc&wpisrc=nl_most-draw7&wpmm=1", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-tillerson-idUSKBN1560X8", "http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/314506-mccain-leans-toward-voting-for-tillerson", "http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2017/01/10/nominations_derailed_the_last_10_cabinet_appointees_to_fail.html", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/12/politics/jeff-merkley-rex-tillerson/", "http://www.kansascity.com/news/nation-world/world/article129453019.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-congress-tillerson-idUSKBN15E2SW?il=0", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-congress-tillerson-idUSKBN1572UA", "http://www.politico.com/story/2017/01/mccain-tillerson-senate-confirm-233989", "https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-really-hard-to-block-a-cabinet-nominee/", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-38835462", "http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2017/02/01/senate-approves-rex-tillerson-secretary-state/97349470/", "http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/315634-rubio-to-vote-for-tillerson", "http://observer.com/2016/04/former-russian-prime-minister-caught-on-camera-having-sex-with-opposition-leader/", "https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/01/hey-betsy-leave-those-bears-alone-bears-dont-need-no-education/513653/", "http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/trumps-nominee-for-state-clears-procedural-hurdle-in-senate/articleshow/56882784.cms", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/30/politics/tillerson-nomination-advances/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-12-27 | 1.0 | [["2016-12-27", 0.89], ["2016-12-27", 0.7], ["2016-12-27", 0.805], ["2016-12-27", 0.6], ["2016-12-27", 0.75], ["2016-12-28", 0.85], 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2017-04-30 | Before 30 April 2017, will the U.S. provide notice of intent to withdraw from NAFTA? | binary | Throughout President-elect Trump's campaign, he labeled NAFTA the "worst trade deal in history" and has repeated a commitment to either negotiating better terms with Mexico and Canada or withdrawing (<a href ="http://www.forbes.com/sites/eriksherman/2016/12/06/nafta-is-here-to-stay-even-under-trump/#5b91a740560f"target = "_blank">Forbes</a>, <a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/twelve-trump-promises-and-how-he-could-fulfill-them/2016/11/10/214d9a12-a769-11e6-8fc0-7be8f848c492_story.html"target = "_blank">Washington Post</a>, <a href = "https://www.nafta-sec-alena.org/Home/Legal-Texts/North-American-Free-Trade-Agreement"target = "_blank">The NAFTA Secretariat</a>). Under Article 2205 of the agreement, a party can withdraw six months after providing notice (<a href = "http://money.cnn.com/2016/07/06/news/economy/trump-nafta/"target = "_blank">CNN</a>, <a href = "https://www.nafta-sec-alena.org/Home/Legal-Texts/North-American-Free-Trade-Agreement?mvid=1&secid=d5a8ba07-1fb2-4f28-88d0-a8eac08611a2"target = "_blank">The NAFTA Secretariat</a>)
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<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/195" target="_blank">whether the DAPA program will be implemented before inauguration day</a> or on <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/374"target = "_blank">Trump's Immigration Ban</a>.</sub>
This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 29 April 2017.
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<hr> | 2017-05-09 | gjopen | ["http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/26/white-house-nafta-withdraw-trump-237632", "http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/04/26/525701964/wto-says-mexico-can-seek-millions-from-u-s-in-dolphin-safe-tuna-dispute", "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-oval-office-desk-red-button-butler-coke-white-house-us-president-a7703056.html", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/491109", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/latest-schumer-says-budget-talks-must-two-way-121730402--politics.html", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/03/30/white-house-calls-for-changing-but-not-scrapping-nafta-in-draft-letter/?utm_term=.811a72a31578&hpid=hp_no-name_hp-in-the-news%3Apage%2Fin-the-news", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-nafta-idUSKBN17S2DG", "http://money.cnn.com/2017/04/25/news/economy/trump-canada-tariffs/", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/443911", "http://www.dailykos.com/stories/1656466", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/five-big-players-steer-trumps-foreign-policy-toward-the-mainstream-1491839286", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/491114", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/26/us/politics/nafta-executive-order-trump.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news", "https://qz.com/942713/mexico-is-meeting-with-brazil-and-argentina-on-corn-duty-free-trade-deals-and-calling-donald-trumps-anti-nafta-bluff/", "https://www.ft.com/content/6763a15c-2ad8-11e7-9ec8-168383da43b7", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/i-was-all-set-to-terminate-inside-trumps-sudden-shift-on-nafta/2017/04/27/0452a3fa-2b65-11e7-b605-33413c691853_story.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-26/trump-aides-in-raging-debate-over-how-quickly-to-move-on-nafta", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/30/business/nafta-trade-deal-trump.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/04/26/trump-close-to-notifying-canada-mexico-of-intent-to-withdraw-from-nafta/?utm_term=.0b15e1f5aac0", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/26/politics/donald-trump-nafta/index.html", "https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/2017/03/27/193206/texas-ranchers-face-blowback-from-trumps-plans-for-nafta/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/26/us/politics/nafta-executive-order-trump.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/25/world/americas/nafta-renegotiation-mexico.html?_r=0", "http://edition.cnn.com/2017/04/26/politics/trump-nafta/index.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-nafta-idUSKBN17S2DG?il=0"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-12-27 | 0.0 | [["2016-12-27", 0.05], ["2016-12-27", 0.165], ["2016-12-27", 0.175], 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2016-12-31 | Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Burundi before 1 January 2017? | binary | For more information on what constitutes an episode of mass killing, see the Early Warning Project’s <a href = "http://www.earlywarningproject.com/definitions" target = "_blank">Definitions</a> page.
Violence erupted in Burundi in May 2015 following an attempted coup after President Pierre Nkurunziza announced he was running for a third term. It has continued since then (<a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-35157517" target = "_blank">BBC</a>). The Early Warning Project’s 2015 statistical risk assessments identify Burundi as one of the top 60 countries with the greatest risk of an onset of state-led mass killing. Those forecasts do not assess the risk of mass killing by non-state groups, which would also produce a “yes” answer to this question.
This question will be resolved by the Early Warning Project, in consultation with subject matter experts, using publicly available secondary sources. If the project determines that a new episode of mass killing has occurred, relevant evidence will be summarized in a post on <a href = "http://www.earlywarningproject.com/posts" target = "_blank">EWP's blog</a>.
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This question was closed as a "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. The EWP did not find evidence of a new mass killing episode in Burundi before the end of 2016 (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/2017/03/29/state-of-the-world-mass-killing-in-2016"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | 2017-03-30 | gjopen | ["https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1z3n9FWa0OYqt8knFlJNTzC32AZworiZAhvqgWauSlhg/edit?usp=sharing", "http://www.france24.com/en/20160920-risk-genocide-crimes-against-humanity-burundi-un-investigators-warn", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/334650", "http://www.ohchr.org/EN/HRBodies/HRC/UNIIB/Pages/UNIIB.aspx", "http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/burundi-presidential-aide-wounded-assassination-bid-43838309", "http://www.voanews.com/a/burundi-risks-genocide-rights-groups-warn/3596921.html", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/335363", "http://www.africa-newsroom.com/press/statement-by-adama-dieng-united-nations-special-adviser-on-the-prevention-of-genocide-on-the-situation-in-burundi?lang=en", "http://www.nation.co.ke/news/Burundian-envoy-to-US-says-African-countries-will-leave-ICC/1056-3416510-125lugl/", "http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/burundi-bans-three-un-human-rights-investigators/3195622.html", "http://en.rfi.fr/africa/20160812-burundi-provides-no-answers-un-committee-against-torture", "http://www.ohchr.org/en/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=20534&LangID=E", "http://reliefweb.int/report/burundi/report-united-nations-independent-investigation-burundi-uniib-established-pursuant", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/310702", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/11/burundi-risks-genocide-forgotten-conflict-161115142336120.html", "http://www.nation.co.ke/news/africa/Burundi-crisis--A-descent-into-hell/1066-3453812-wvahvsz/", "http://www.africanews.com/2016/10/26/burundi-security-situation-has-improved-eu-au-jointly-laud-efforts/", "http://www.acleddata.com/data/realtime-data-2016/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/348442", "http://www.businessinsider.com/burundis-government-might-scrap-presidential-term-limits-2016-8", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/burundi-lawmakers-vote-to-withdraw-from-international-criminal-court-1476278413", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/315557", "http://m.ibtimes.co.in/rights-group-claims-to-have-discovered-14-mass-graves-across-burundi-691250", "http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/burundi-rights-group-claims-have-discovered-least-14-mass-graves-across-country-1577853", "http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2000216120/former-army-officer-and-family-killed-in-grenade-attack-in-burundi-crisis"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-02-02 | 0.0 | [["2016-02-02", 0.05], ["2016-02-02", 0.25], ["2016-02-02", 0.32], ["2016-02-03", 0.32], ["2016-02-03", 0.335], ["2016-02-03", 0.4], ["2016-02-03", 0.45], ["2016-02-03", 0.35], ["2016-02-03", 0.37], ["2016-02-03", 0.37], ["2016-02-04", 0.4], ["2016-02-04", 0.45], ["2016-02-04", 0.47], ["2016-02-04", 0.5], ["2016-02-05", 0.495], ["2016-02-05", 0.495], ["2016-02-05", 0.49], ["2016-02-05", 0.49], ["2016-02-05", 0.47], ["2016-02-05", 0.47], ["2016-02-05", 0.5], ["2016-02-05", 0.5], ["2016-02-06", 0.5], ["2016-02-06", 0.5], 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["2016-12-21", 0.05], ["2016-12-22", 0.05], ["2016-12-23", 0.05], ["2016-12-24", 0.05], ["2016-12-26", 0.05], ["2016-12-27", 0.05], ["2016-12-28", 0.04], ["2016-12-29", 0.04], ["2016-12-30", 0.03], ["2016-12-30", 0.03], ["2016-12-31", 0.03]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/128 | True |
2016-12-31 | Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Ukraine before 1 January 2017? | binary | For more information on what constitutes an episode of mass killing, see the <a href="http://www.earlywarningproject.com/definitions" target="_blank">Early Warning Project's Definitions page</a>. The Early Warning Project’s <a href="http://www.earlywarningproject.com/countries/ukraine" target="_blank">2015 statistical risk assessments</a> identified Ukraine as the 20th country at the greatest risk of an onset of a new episode of state-led mass killing. Those forecasts do not include the risk of mass killing by non-state groups, which would also produce a “yes” answer to this question. This question will be resolved by the Early Warning Project, in consultation with subject matter experts, using publicly available secondary sources. If the project determines that a new episode of mass killing has occurred, relevant evidence will be summarized in a post on <a href="http://www.earlywarningproject.com/posts" target="_blank">EWP's blog</a>.
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This question was closed as a "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. The EWP did not find evidence of a new mass killing episode in Ukraine before the end of 2016 (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/2017/03/29/state-of-the-world-mass-killing-in-2016"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
| 2017-03-30 | gjopen | ["http://www.politico.eu/article/dutch-government-delays-ukraine-trade-deal-decision-mark-rutte-prime-minister/", "http://uatoday.tv/business/further-imf-bailout-for-ukraine-delayed-731752.html", "http://tass.com/politics/898487", "http://bharatuntoldstory.tumblr.com/post/31804149753/operation-vijaythe-liberation-of-goa1961", "https://russiamil.wordpress.com/2016/03/17/1837/", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/three-ukrainian-soldiers-killed-in-fighting-against-rebel-forces-1473784739", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_People%27s_Republic", "http://www.globalresearch.ca/depopulation-and-social-explosion-mass-exodus-from-ukraine-to-russia-80000-people-a-week/5555293", "http://ukraine.csis.org/#496", "http://ukraine.csis.org/#494", "http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/ukraine-s-reforms-are-pointless-without-solving-security-issues", "http://www.ohchr.org/EN/Countries/ENACARegion/Pages/UAReports.aspx", "https://news.vice.com/article/russias-military-modernization-is-working-but-the-moneys-running-out", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GLONASS#Achieving_full_orbital_constellation", "http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/261176?download=true", "http://www.academia.edu/27715875/The_Right_Sector_and_Others_National_Radicals_and_the_Ukrainian_Political_Crisis_of_Late_2013_Early_2104", "http://tass.com/world/899797", "http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/279531", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/eu-extends-sanctions-on-russian-officials-over-ukraine-crisis-1473937849", "http://www.iar-gwu.org/content/clash-civilizations-ukraine-not-quite", "https://www.amnesty.org/en/countries/europe-and-central-asia/ukraine/report-ukraine", "http://tass.com/politics/898486", "http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/ukraine_-_issue_11_eng.pdf", "http://www.newsweek.com/where-do-clinton-and-trump-stand-russia-487777", "http://dailysignal.com/2016/11/02/eastern-europe-arms-itself-against-russian-military-aggression/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-08-23 | 0.0 | [["2016-08-23", 0.01], ["2016-08-23", 0.04], ["2016-08-23", 0.03], ["2016-08-23", 0.51], ["2016-08-23", 0.5], ["2016-08-23", 0.5], ["2016-08-23", 0.0], ["2016-08-23", 0.05], ["2016-08-24", 0.095], ["2016-08-24", 0.045], ["2016-08-24", 0.05], ["2016-08-24", 0.05], ["2016-08-24", 0.05], ["2016-08-24", 0.05], ["2016-08-24", 0.05], ["2016-08-24", 0.05], ["2016-08-24", 0.05], ["2016-08-24", 0.05], ["2016-08-24", 0.05], ["2016-08-24", 0.05], ["2016-08-24", 0.05], ["2016-08-24", 0.05], ["2016-08-24", 0.02], ["2016-08-24", 0.05], ["2016-08-25", 0.02], ["2016-08-25", 0.035], ["2016-08-25", 0.035], ["2016-08-25", 0.035], ["2016-08-25", 0.07], ["2016-08-25", 0.09], ["2016-08-25", 0.09], ["2016-08-25", 0.09], ["2016-08-25", 0.09], ["2016-08-25", 0.06], ["2016-08-25", 0.06], ["2016-08-26", 0.06], ["2016-08-26", 0.05], ["2016-08-26", 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2018-01-01 | Before 1 January 2018, will the European Council announce the opening of formal membership negotiations with any candidate countries or designate any new country as an official candidate for membership? | binary | Albania and Macedonia are both candidate countries for EU membership, but neither has begun the formal membership negotiations that must conclude in order for the country to join; Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo have been told that they can become candidate countries when they are ready (<a href = "http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/countries/check-current-status/index_en.htm"target = "_blank">European Commission</a>). For more information on the accession process see: <a href = "https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/policy/steps-towards-joining_en"target = "_blank">European Commission</a>.
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<hr>
The European Council did not announce the opening of formal membership negotiations with any candidate countries or designate any new country as an official candidate for membership. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
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<hr>
| 2018-01-08 | gjopen | ["https://europeanwesternbalkans.com/2017/03/02/bih-citizens-offer-395-ansers-to-questions-from-ec-questionnaire/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-03-08/brexit-talks-where-will-the-eu-red-lines-be-after-article-50", "http://www.eurocrisismonitor.com/img/Target2%20graph%20-%20%20ecb%20data%20-%20large.jpg", "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/eu-accepts-membership-application-from-bosnia-and-herzegovina-a7319841.html", "https://twitter.com/Ukraine/status/869433723867062272?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.vox.com%2Fworld%2F2017%2F5%2F30%2F15712140%2Frussia-ukraine-twitter-fight-simpsons-gif", "http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/news-room/20170131IPR60322/foreign-affairs-meps-assess-reform-efforts-in-albania-and-bosnia-and-herzegovina", "http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/world/2017/04/02/serbia-powerful-leader-claims-landslide-presidential-win/0gDwMKCIBwA9IC45F63gUL/story.html", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-11283616", "http://ec.europa.eu/avservices/video/player.cfm?ref=I134282", "https://www.eureporter.co/frontpage/2017/01/11/bih-is-eu-membership-for-montenegro-bosnia-and-herzegovina-really-worth-it/", "https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2984587/jean-claude-junckers-desperate-five-path-plan-to-try-and-save-the-eu-after-brexit-revealed-which-sent-shockwaves-through-brussels/", "http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/30/scotlands-economic-case-for-independence-must-be-politically-bomb-proof.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-02-27/how-brexit-means-eu-loses-money-influence-and-military-strength", "http://time.com/4504010/europe-politics-swing-right/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-serbia-germany-idUSKBN17E2B0", "https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/countries/check-current-status_en", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tzM5Ar55KPE", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union#Politics", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-inauguration-idUSKBN1540I0", "http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-06/07/c_136347965.htm", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-summit-balkans-idUSKBN16G32S", "http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-ecb-eurozone-idUKKBN1542KL", "https://seenews.com/news/eu-parliament-points-to-need-for-bosnia-to-remain-united-558183#sthash.zfmTQG7l.dpuf", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/12/iceland-drops-european-union-membership-bid", "http://vijesti.hrt.hr/374522/vecina-europarlamentaraca-u-raspravi-podrzala-izvjesce-o-bih"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-01-16 | 0.0 | [["2017-01-17", 0.45], ["2017-01-17", 0.325], ["2017-01-17", 0.18], ["2017-01-18", 0.15], ["2017-01-18", 0.2], ["2017-01-18", 0.25], ["2017-01-18", 0.25], ["2017-01-18", 0.235], ["2017-01-18", 0.2], ["2017-01-18", 0.18], ["2017-01-18", 0.165], ["2017-01-19", 0.165], ["2017-01-19", 0.15], ["2017-01-19", 0.125], ["2017-01-19", 0.125], ["2017-01-19", 0.125], 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["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-23", 0.0], ["2017-12-23", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-25", 0.0], ["2017-12-26", 0.0], ["2017-12-26", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2018-01-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/387 | True |
2016-08-30 | Will Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL) win her 30 August primary race? | binary | This question was closed as a "yes'. Debbie Wasserman Schultz won her primary (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/florida-congressional-23-primary-wasserman-schultz-canova" target="_blank">NY Times</a>).
Incumbent Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz, who recently resigned as chair of the Democratic National Committee after an email leak showed her having favored Hillary Clinton over Bernie Sanders throughout the presidential primary, faces Sanders-backed challenger Tim Canova in Florida's 23rd Congressional district (<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/ousted-from-dnc-wasserman-schultz-fighting-to-stay-in-house/2016/08/05/8bd03866-5ae0-11e6-8b48-0cb344221131_story.html" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>, <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/08/01/wasserman_schultzs_opponent_sees_gain_from_dnc_uproar_131375.html" target="_blank">Real Clear Politics</a>, <a href="http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/election/article93583247.html" target="_blank">Miami Herald</a>, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/25/us/politics/debbie-wasserman-schultz-tim-canova-florida.html?_r=0" target="_blank">NY Times</a>).
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2017-07-01 | Before 1 July 2017, will the US endorse a peace plan which allows Bashar al-Assad to remain in power? | binary | The United States' current Syria policy calls for the removal of Bashar al-Assad from power (<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/26/us-policy-syria-refugees-assad-rebels" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>, <a href="http://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2014/01/220605.htm" target="_blank">US Department of State</a>, <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/06/04/g-7-leaders-statement-foreign-policy"target="_blank">The White House</a>, <a href="http://usgov.info/2016/09/26/daily-press-briefings-daily-press-briefing-september-26-2016/"target="_blank">US Government Information</a>), a position which puts them at odds with Russia (<a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-23849587" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/08/middleeast/syria-aleppo-russia-strategy/" target="_blank">CNN</a>) and which has been questioned by a US presidential candidate (<a href="http://www.ibtimes.com/donald-trump-isis-defeating-islamic-state-not-assad-syria-part-proposed-presidential-2371781" target="_blank">International Business Times</a>, <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/18/opinions/donald-trump-syria-opposition-reaction/" target="_blank">CNN</a>). The endorsement of an agreement which only allows Assad to remain in power during a transition period will NOT suffice (e.g. <a href="http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/dpb/2016/09/262445.htm" target="_blank">US Department of State</a>), but an agreement which allows Assad to compete in national elections would.
Recommended Questions
<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/278" target="_blank">How many Syrian Refugees will the UNHCR register in Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Egypt and North Africa before 1 January 2017?</a>
To date, there is no evidence the US has endorsed a peace plan which allows Bashar al-Assad to remain in power. This question was closed as "b) no" with an end date of 30 June 2017.
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<hr> | 2017-07-05 | gjopen | ["https://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2017/05/270647.htm", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/06/world/middleeast/us-said-to-weigh-military-responses-to-syrian-chemical-attack.html", "http://www.smh.com.au/world/donald-trump-something-should-happen-with-bashar-alassad-us-mulls-response-20170406-gvfk9c.html", "http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/syrian-rebels-have-been-receiving-secret-help-from-isra-1796303502", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/26/us/politics/syria-will-pay-a-heavy-price-for-another-chemical-attack-trump-says.html?emc=edit_na_20170626&nl=breaking-news&nlid=52725637&ref=headline&_r=0", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-usa-idUSKBN18X2JP", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-mattis-israel-idUSKBN17N0SN", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-39520586", "http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-mideast-crisis-syria-usa-idUKKBN19I07K", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-putin-syria-idUSKBN17Y2BX", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-usa-idUSKBN17622G", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/03/nikki-haley-bashar-al-assad-syria-170331005600046.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-johnson-idUSKBN1770MA", "http://www.businessinsider.com/world-reacts-to-us-airstrike-in-syria-2017-4", "http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/iraqi-shiite-cleric-sadr-urges-assad-to-step-down/3663222.html", "http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2017/04/09/ouster-al-assad-us-priority-ambassador", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/04/world/middleeast/syria-gas-attack.html?_r=0", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/the-main-question-after-any-strikes-on-syria-how-does-russia-respond/2017/04/06/316c22b0-1aff-11e7-855e-4824bbb5d748_story.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/302-before-1-july-2017-will-the-us-endorse-a-peace-plan-which-allows-bashar-al-assad-to-remain-in-power#", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-usa-idUSKBN18Y17H", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-signals-change-in-syria-policy-1491412945", "http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/syriasource/ankara-and-washington-can-yes-on-syria-be-achieved", "https://www.defense.gov/Videos/videoid/534107/", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-39493854", "http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-mideast-crisis-syria-resolution-idUKKBN17702O"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-10-18 | 0.0 | [["2016-10-18", 0.08], ["2016-10-18", 0.015], ["2016-10-18", 0.03], ["2016-10-18", 0.01], ["2016-10-18", 0.055], ["2016-10-19", 0.1], ["2016-10-19", 0.18], ["2016-10-19", 0.11], ["2016-10-19", 0.06], ["2016-10-19", 0.05], ["2016-10-20", 0.05], ["2016-10-20", 0.04], ["2016-10-20", 0.05], ["2016-10-20", 0.045], ["2016-10-21", 0.045], ["2016-10-21", 0.045], ["2016-10-22", 0.045], ["2016-10-22", 0.04], ["2016-10-23", 0.05], ["2016-10-23", 0.045], ["2016-10-23", 0.04], ["2016-10-23", 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2016-01-06 | Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before 1 January 2017? | binary | Past examples of North Korean nuclear tests include those listed here: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-17823706 . | 2016-01-07 | gjopen | ["http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-35240012", "https://www.ctbto.org/press-centre/press-releases/2013/ctbto-detects-radioactivity-consistent-with-12-february-announced-north-korean-nuclear-test/", "https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-difference-between-an-atomic-bomb-and-a-hydrogen-bomb", "http://nypost.com/2016/01/05/north-korea-may-have-conducted-another-nuclear-test/", "http://www.afr.com/news/world/north-korea-likely-to-have-conducted-nuclear-test-20160106-gm0b03", "http://www.ccnr.org/Howard_Morland.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_North_Korean_nuclear_program", "https://twitter.com/ctbto_alerts", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/06/world/asia/north-korea-hydrogen-bomb-test.html?_r=0", "http://newsworldindia.in/world/north-korean-earthquake-near-nuclear-site-sends-panic-across-east-asia-over-possible-atomic-test/167298/", "http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2016/01/06/0200000000AEN20160106005000315.html", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-35240012", "http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/06/north-korea-bomb-test-prompts-condemnation.html", "http://www.cbsnews.com/live/video/tremors-reported-near-n-korean-nuclear-site/", "http://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2015/dec/09/north-korea-prepares-for-harsh-winter-in-pictures", "http://www.ibtimes.com/hydrogen-bomb-vs-atomic-bomb-fusion-powered-weapon-more-destructive-fission-powered-2251137", "http://edition.cnn.com/2016/01/05/asia/north-korea-seismic-event/", "http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2016/jan/06/north-korea-major-announcement-artificial-earthquake-nuclear-test-site-live", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_North_Korean_nuclear_test", "http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/05/asia/north-korea-seismic-event/", "http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/06/north-korean-nuclear-test-suspected-as-artificial-earthquake-detected", "http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/nordkorea-meldet-test-einer-wasserstoffbombe-a-1070660.html", "http://www.nknews.org/2015/12/n-korea-confirms-may-date-for-party-congress/", "http://www.businessinsider.com/map-every-nuclear-bomb-explosion-history-2015-10", "https://news.vice.com/article/yes-north-korea-probably-tested-an-h-bomb-just-not-the-kind-youre-thinking-of"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2015-11-10 | 1.0 | [["2015-11-10", 0.435], ["2015-11-10", 0.55], ["2015-11-10", 0.635], ["2015-11-10", 0.55], ["2015-11-10", 0.55], ["2015-11-10", 0.45], ["2015-11-10", 0.45], ["2015-11-11", 0.5], ["2015-11-11", 0.5], ["2015-11-11", 0.5], ["2015-11-11", 0.4], ["2015-11-11", 0.4], ["2015-11-11", 0.4], ["2015-11-11", 0.5], ["2015-11-11", 0.5], ["2015-11-11", 0.5], ["2015-11-11", 0.5], ["2015-11-11", 0.55], ["2015-11-11", 0.58], ["2015-11-11", 0.6], 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2018-04-01 | Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe?
| binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Zimbabwe from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
<hr>
This question closed as No. (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/EWPJan2018Dec2018"target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a>)
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. | 2019-12-09 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-12-28 | 0.0 | [["2017-12-28", 1.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.225], ["2017-12-29", 0.3], ["2017-12-29", 0.075], ["2017-12-29", 0.1], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.025], ["2017-12-29", 0.075], ["2017-12-29", 0.095], ["2017-12-29", 0.095], ["2017-12-30", 0.07], ["2017-12-30", 0.025], ["2017-12-31", 0.025], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.125], ["2017-12-31", 0.2], ["2017-12-31", 0.2], ["2017-12-31", 0.225], ["2017-12-31", 0.25], 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["2018-03-28", 0.01], ["2018-03-29", 0.01], ["2018-03-29", 0.01], ["2018-03-30", 0.01], ["2018-03-30", 0.01], ["2018-03-30", 0.01], ["2018-03-30", 0.01], ["2018-03-30", 0.01], ["2018-03-31", 0.01], ["2018-04-01", 0.01], ["2018-04-01", 0.01], ["2018-04-01", 0.01], ["2018-04-01", 0.01]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/826 | True |
2017-12-31 | Before 1 January 2018, will the Chicago Board Options Exchange's CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) exceed 30? | binary | The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a measure of the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options. Outcome will be determined based on the reported intraday values calculated and published by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (<a href="http://www.cboe.com/delayedquote/advanced-charts?ticker=VIX" target="_blank">CBOE</a>).
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Chicago Board Options Exchange's CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) did not exceed 30. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
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| 2018-01-07 | gjopen | ["http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/1350485021012458", "https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJYKVpiW4AIUtNG.jpg:large", "https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=32&t=6", "http://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/the-world-turned-upside-down", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/498-before-1-january-2018-will-the-chicago-board-options-exchange-s-cboe-volatility-index-vix-exceed-30/www.bloomberg.com", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_walk_hypothesis", "http://www.usdebtclock.org/", "https://vixandmore.blogspot.com.au/2012/12/volatility-during-crises.html", "http://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/global-credit-market-flashes-early-warning-alert-20171113-gzk3xj.html", "http://www.scmp.com/business/article/2106812/us-dollars-fall-could-become-self-fulfilling-prophecy", "https://www.debtclocks.eu/public-debt-and-budget-deficit-of-the-eurozone.html", "https://www.researchgate.net/publication/227378486_India%27s_International_Reserves_How_Large_and_How_Diversified", "http://www.cboe.com/products/vix-index-volatility/vix-options-and-futures/vix-index/vix-historical-data", "http://www.cboe.com/publish/scheduledtask/mktdata/datahouse/vixcurrent.csv", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_one_price", "http://www.cboe.com/delayedquote/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-03/why-investors-shouldn-t-trust-low-volatility", "https://www.telesurtv.net/english/opinion/Dollar-Yesterday-20171023-0004.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/28/business/dealbook/vix-trading.html?emc=edit_th_20170829&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=77825025", "http://statisticstimes.com/economy/countries-by-projected-gdp.php", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stock_market_crashes_and_bear_markets", "https://twitter.com/russian_market/status/916313167688552449", "http://www.bloomberg.com/", "http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2017/11/the-low-volatility-puzzle-are-investors-complacent.html", "https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/crudeoilreserves/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-06-13 | 0.0 | [["2017-06-13", 0.0], ["2017-06-13", 0.15], ["2017-06-14", 0.08], ["2017-06-14", 0.0], ["2017-06-14", 0.005], ["2017-06-14", 0.05], ["2017-06-15", 0.05], ["2017-06-15", 0.175], ["2017-06-15", 0.375], ["2017-06-15", 0.15], ["2017-06-15", 0.1], ["2017-06-16", 0.08], ["2017-06-16", 0.11], ["2017-06-16", 0.155], ["2017-06-16", 0.155], ["2017-06-16", 0.155], ["2017-06-17", 0.2], ["2017-06-17", 0.2], ["2017-06-18", 0.2], ["2017-06-18", 0.2], ["2017-06-18", 0.2], ["2017-06-18", 0.22], ["2017-06-19", 0.21], ["2017-06-19", 0.175], ["2017-06-19", 0.15], ["2017-06-19", 0.1], ["2017-06-19", 0.1], ["2017-06-19", 0.1], ["2017-06-19", 0.1], ["2017-06-20", 0.1], ["2017-06-20", 0.075], ["2017-06-20", 0.1], ["2017-06-20", 0.1], ["2017-06-21", 0.075], ["2017-06-22", 0.1], 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2016-12-31 | Will the EU lift visa requirements for Turkish citizens before the end of 2016? | binary | This question was closed as "no" on 31 December 2016.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
In a deal struck in March 2016, the EU had agreed to lift visa requirements for Turkish citizens by the end of June, but negotiations on visa liberalization continue (<a href="http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-16-963_en.htm" target="_blank">European Commission</a>, <a href="http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2016/06/12/Turkey-visa-free-EU-travel-deal-stalls.html" target="_blank">Al Arabiya</a>). For more information on the visa requirements referenced in the agreement and the visa liberalization process for Turkey more generally see: <a href="http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-16-582_en.htm" target="_blank">European Commission</a>.
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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/233 | True |
2016-01-26 | Will Apple sell more than 75 million iPhones in its December quarter? | binary | Investors are debating whether the release of the iPhone 6S will push Apple's iPhone sales past last years quarterly record (http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/09/18/2-iphone-numbers-apple-investors-need-to-know.aspx , http://www.forbes.com/sites/maggiemcgrath/2015/09/18/forget-ios9-glitches-iphone-6s-sales-will-boost-apples-results-says-wall-street/ ). The December quarter, which runs from 27 September 2015 through December 27, 2015 is the first quarter of Apple's 2016 year. | 2016-01-27 | gjopen | ["http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-22/russia-retailers-run-out-of-iphones-as-buyers-eye-ruble-plunge?cmpid=wsdemand", "http://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2016/01/25/apple-dangerously-close-to-being-short-of-december-quarters-revenue-guidance/#2ba5192e4129", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-26/apple-forecasts-first-sales-drop-since-2003-on-iphone-slowdown", "http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/59c763a8-c24c-11e5-b3b1-7b2481276e45.html#axzz3y5oH3kn0", "http://www.ibtimes.com/apple-inc-aapl-q1-2016-earnings-preview-iphone-sales-may-post-first-year-over-year-2278629", "http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2016/01/20/apple-may-miss-fyq1-and-q2-estimates-on-older-iphone-popularity-says-ubs/", "http://venturebeat.com/2016/01/26/apple-sees-iphone-sales-grow-just-0-4-to-74-8-million-in-q1-2016-ipad-sales-decline-25/", "https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/2-just-for-fun-2015/scores", "http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3412150/Is-iPhone-s-reign-Apple-expected-reveal-handset-s-sales-decline-launched-decade-ago.html", "http://www.macrumors.com/2016/01/26/q1-2016-results/", "http://indianexpress.com/article/technology/tech-news-technology/apples-best-india-quarter-yet-as-iphone-shipments-cross-800000/", "http://www.wired.com/2016/01/apple-sold-a-record-number-of-iphones-but-just-barely/?mbid=social_twitter", "http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35412892", "http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/jan/26/apple-iphone-sales-slowdown-2007-drop-holiday", "http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-35401668", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/apple/12121052/Apple-set-to-report-flatlining-iPhone-sales.html", "http://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2016/01/25/apple-dangerously-close-to-being-short-of-december-quarters-revenue-guidance/?utm_campaign=Forbes&utm_source=TWITTER&utm_medium=social&utm_channel=Investing&linkId=20656090#6bfd57d24129", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/106761", "http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/26/apple-beats-on-earnings-misses-revenue-and-iphone-units-q2-sales-guidance-below-consensus.html", "http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/jan/26/apple-iphone-sales-projected-stagnant-q1-2016", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Channel_stuffing", "http://flurrymobile.tumblr.com/post/136133865650/pha-la-la-a-real-phabulous-holiday", "http://uk.businessinsider.com/apple-q1-earnings-2016-1?r=US&IR=T", "http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/50725099.cms", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/64692"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2015-09-28 | 0.0 | [["2015-09-28", 0.92], ["2015-09-28", 0.89], ["2015-09-28", 0.92], ["2015-09-29", 0.855], 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2018-01-01 | Will India and Pakistan both attend a South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit before 1 January 2018? | binary | Both countries must attend the same summit to resolve this question. The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation is an intergovernmental group made up of the countries of South Asia (<a href="http://saarc-sec.org/" target="_blank">SAARC</a>). India recently said it will boycott the SAARC summit scheduled to be held in Pakistan this month (<a href="http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/after-boycott-by-india-and-others-saarc-summit-likely-to-be-called-off/" target="_blank">The Indian Express</a>). This influenced other countries in South Asia to boycott as well (<a href="http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/saarc-summit-sri-lanka-india-pakistan-uri-3067152/" target="_blank">The Indian Express</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
India and Pakistan did not both attend a South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
| 2018-01-02 | gjopen | ["http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/india-attempting-to-block-new-saarc-chief-pakistan-daily/articleshow/56918968.cms", "https://tribune.com.pk/story/1464468/pakistan-highlight-cpec-benefits-saarc-meeting/", "http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/beheading-of-two-indian-soldiers-india-pakistan-dgmos-speak-over-hotline/articleshow/58474152.cms", "http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/indias-policy-to-isolate-pakistan-a-fools-errand-maleeha-lodhi/articleshow/57960412.cms", "https://www.adb.org/documents/sasec-operational-plan-2016-2025", "http://www.livemint.com/Industry/JjeP6L78JroOEkQu1xD0XP/Interconnected-power-market-a-clear-win-for-South-Asia-ADB.html", "http://nation.com.pk/national/27-Mar-2017/pakistan-should-pay-785-mn-for-south-asian-university-saarc-members", "http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/If-SAARC-fails-theres-BIMSTEC-India-warns-Pakistan/articleshow/55545978.cms", "http://saarc-sec.org/calendar", "http://www.dawn.com/news/1311965/indias-objection-to-a-pakistani-secretary-general-may-hurt-saarc", "http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/indias-ceasefire-violations-pose-potential-threat-pakistan-army/articleshow/57044395.cms", "http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/india-may-not-engage-pakistan-in-near-future/articleshow/57474564.cms", "https://www.dawn.com/news/1327109/india-to-invite-pakistan-to-saarc-seminar", "http://pakobserver.net/indian-hegemony-over-saarc/", "http://www.saarc-sec.org/2017/02/01/news/53rd-Session-of-the-Programming-Committee-1-2-February-2017/161/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-pakistan-water-idUSKBN16N03E?il=0", "http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/india-to-host-first-ever-bimstec-nsa-meet-to-discuss-counter-terror-action-plan/articleshow/57022769.cms", "http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2017/09/23/can-india-take-the-lead-on-bimstec/", "http://www.thedailystar.net/backpage/bimstec-power-deal-finalised-1360417", "http://currentaffairs.gktoday.in/tags/saarc", "http://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2017/mar/10/pakistan-needs-to-walk-away-from-terrorism-for-any-government-level-talks-india-1579699.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/20th_SAARC_summit", "http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/india-saarc-countries-pull-up-pakistan-ask-it-to-pay-up-7-85-mn-for-south-asian-university/articleshow/57845181.cms", "http://www.sify.com/news/pakistan-sri-lanka-urge-end-to-saarc-stalemate-news-others-rcjmamahahdji.html", "http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/pak-continues-to-violate-ceasefire-supports-infiltration-govt/articleshow/57630388.cms"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-11-15 | 0.0 | [["2016-11-15", 0.375], ["2016-11-15", 0.175], ["2016-11-15", 0.23], ["2016-11-16", 0.4], ["2016-11-16", 0.4], ["2016-11-16", 0.4], ["2016-11-16", 0.39], ["2016-11-17", 0.3], 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["2017-12-02", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-06", 0.0], ["2017-12-08", 0.0], ["2017-12-09", 0.0], ["2017-12-10", 0.0], ["2017-12-11", 0.0], ["2017-12-13", 0.0], ["2017-12-13", 0.0], ["2017-12-14", 0.0], ["2017-12-16", 0.0], ["2017-12-17", 0.0], ["2017-12-18", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-21", 0.0], ["2017-12-21", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-23", 0.0], ["2017-12-25", 0.0], ["2017-12-25", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2018-01-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/350 | True |
2019-12-20 | Will the United States experience two consecutive quarters of a negative real GDP growth rate in 2019? | binary | The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis releases three estimates for each quarter: advance, second, and third, and the release dates for 2019 can be found here: <a href="https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule" target="_blank">The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis</a>. This question will be resolved based on the third estimates for Q1, Q2, and Q3, typically released 3 months after the end of each quarter, and the advance estimate for Q4, expected in mid-January 2020. The third estimate for Q3 2018 indicated that real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.4 percent: <a href="https://www.bea.gov/news/2018/gross-domestic-product-3rd-quarter-2018-third-estimate-corporate-profits-3rd-quarter-2018" target="_blank">The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis</a>. The last time the quarter-on-quarter U.S. GDP growth rate was negative was Q1 2014 (<a href="https://www.bea.gov/news/2014/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2014-third-estimate-corporate-profits-1st-quarter-2014" target="_blank"">The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.bea.gov/news/2019/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-2019-third-estimate-corporate-profits-third-quarter" target="_blank">BEA</a>). </p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2019-12-20 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2019-01-04 | 0.0 | [["2019-01-05", 0.45], ["2019-01-05", 0.01], ["2019-01-06", 0.0], 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2016-12-16 | Will at least 400 employers participate as partners in the US Department of Energy’s Workplace Charging Challenge in 2016? | binary | <b>This question was voided on 16 December 2016 due to a change in how the Department of Energy (DoE) calculates the total number of Partners and in the way DoE data is presented at the links provided. These changes make the clarification issued on October 4th inconsistent with the way DoE counts affiliates.
</b>
In 2012, the US Department of Energy (DOE) launched the Workplace Charging Challenge with the goal of installing electric vehicle charging stations in workplace parking lots of at least 500 employers by 2018 (<a href = "http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/ev-everywhere-workplace-charging-challenge" target = "_blank">Energy Department</a>). In 2015, 260 organizations participated as partners. Learn more about Workplace Charging Challenge partners <a href = "http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/workplace-charging-challenge-partners" target = "_blank">here</a>. The question will be resolved using DOE data. Examples of progress reports from 2014 and 2015 can be found here: <a href = "http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2015/11/f27/WPCC_2014progressupdate_1114.pdf" target = "_blank">2014 Report</a>, <a href = "http://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2015/12/f27/105313-5400-BR-0-EERE%20Charging%20Challenge-FINAL_0.pdf" target = "_blank">2015 Report</a>. For more information on electric vehicle charging stations, see <a href = "http://www.afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_infrastructure.html" target = "_blank">Alternative Fuels Data Center</a>.
Clarification Released 10/4/2016: Subsidiaries of companies listed as "Partners" in DOE's workplace challenge do not count as separate partners. For example, the website currently lists Duke Energy, with Duke Energy Carolinas, Duke Energy Florida, Duke Energy Indiana, Duke Energy Kentucky, Duke Energy Ohio, and Duke Energy Progress listed in italics as subsidiaries. Duke Energy counts as one partner.
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"http://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2015/12/f27/105313-5400-BR-0-EERE%20Charging%20Challenge-FINAL_0.pdf", "https://twitter.com/nay_chehab", "http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/In-Gear/2016/1129/Electric-car-datathon-to-be-hosted-by-White-House-today", "https://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/workplace-charging-challenge-join-challenge", "https://www.usa.gov/federal-agencies/a", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/329749", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/321669", "https://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/workplace-charging-challenge-partners", "https://twitter.com/ENERGY/status/789551858142420992", "http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/interested-joining-workplace-charging-challenge", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/390231", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/386951", "https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/11/03/obama-administration-announces-new-actions-accelerate-deployment", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/399893"] | Not applicable/available for 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2017-10-01 | Before 1 October 2017, will the FDA approve the sale of a gene-therapy treatment for inherited diseases? | binary | Congress passed the 21st Century Cures Act in December 2016, meant to accelerate the discovery, development, and delivery of new cures (<a href = "https://www.congress.gov/bill/114th-congress/house-bill/6/text"target = "_blank">US Congress</a>). Spark Therapeutics could become the first company to receive FDA approval to sell a gene-therapy treatment in the U.S. (<a href = "http://www.theworldin.com/article/12776/gene-ius-treatments"target = "_blank">The Economist</a>, <a href = "https://www.technologyreview.com/s/602625/gene-therapy-in-us-is-on-track-for-approval-as-early-as-next-year/"target = "_blank">Technology Review</a>, <a href = "http://www.fda.gov/BiologicsBloodVaccines/CellularGeneTherapyProducts/"target = "_blank">FDA Cellular Gene Therapy Products</a>, <a href = "http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v537/n7619_supp/full/537S57a.html"target = "_blank">Nature Journal</a>, <a href = "http://www.fda.gov/Drugs/DevelopmentApprovalProcess/"target = "_blank">FDA Development Approval Process</a>).
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<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/376-will-a-u-s-state-enact-a-soda-tax-in-2017"target = "_blank">the US will enact a soda tax in 2017</a> or on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/379-before-1-january-2018-will-the-u-s-federal-aviation-administration-grant-a-waiver-allowing-amazon-to-test-its-unmanned-aerial-vehicles"target = "_blank">the FAA will grant Amazon a waiver to begin testing UAV delivery systems</a>.</sub>
<hr>
Although the FDA approved the sale of a new gene therapy for acute lymphoblastic leukemia, they did not approve the sale of any gene therapy for inherited diseases. This question closed "b) No," with and end date of 1 October 2017.
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<hr> | 2017-10-04 | gjopen | ["https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4481591/", "http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/341748-fda-votes-to-recommend-gene-therapy-leukemia-treatment", "http://ir.sparktx.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=253900&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2286691", "http://www.in-pharmatechnologist.com/Regulatory-Safety/US-FDA-to-decide-on-Spark-s-ocular-gene-therapy-Luxturna-in-January", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gilead-sciences-fda/u-s-fda-approves-gilead-cancer-gene-therapy-price-set-at-373000-idUSKBN1CN35H", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-30/cancer-breakthrough-heralds-new-era-of-cures-costs-and-choices", "https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/car-t-leukemia-cancer-gene-therapy-fda/G", "https://ghr.nlm.nih.gov/condition/acute-promyelocytic-leukemia#inheritance", "https://pharmaphorum.com/news/spark-gene-therapy-fda/", "http://www.bbc.com/news/health-41094990", "https://ghr.nlm.nih.gov/condition/cytogenetically-normal-acute-myeloid-leukemia#inheritance", "https://seekingalpha.com/article/4076850-spark-therapeutics-upcoming-fda-catalyst", "http://nationalcmlsociety.org/faq/general-leukemia-questions/leukemia-inherited", "https://www.fda.gov/forpatients/approvals/fast/ucm405405.htm", "http://blogs.plos.org/dnascience/2017/07/20/luxturna-a-giant-step-forward-for-blindness-gene-therapy-a-conversation-with-dr-kathy-high/", "https://ghr.nlm.nih.gov/condition", "https://ghr.nlm.nih.gov/primer/mutationsanddisorders/predisposition", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/30/health/gene-therapy-cancer.html?mcubz=1&_r=0", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acute_lymphoblastic_leukemia#Cause", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-gene-editing-idUSKBN1AC0CM", "https://www.fda.gov/NewsEvents/Newsroom/PressAnnouncements/ucm574058.htm", "http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/us-clears-living-drug-tough-childhood-leukemia-49513403", "https://www.newscientist.com/article/2146048-pioneering-gene-therapy-approved-for-leukaemia-in-the-us/", "http://www.cancerresearchuk.org/about-cancer/acute-lymphoblastic-leukaemia-all/risks-causes", "https://www.genome.gov/10001204/specific-genetic-disorders/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-01-24 | 0.0 | [["2017-01-24", 0.36], ["2017-01-24", 0.25], ["2017-01-24", 0.65], ["2017-01-24", 0.525], ["2017-01-25", 0.3], ["2017-01-25", 0.3], ["2017-01-25", 0.25], ["2017-01-25", 0.25], ["2017-01-25", 0.35], ["2017-01-25", 0.045], ["2017-01-25", 0.35], ["2017-01-26", 0.125], ["2017-01-26", 0.375], ["2017-01-26", 0.4], ["2017-01-27", 0.435], ["2017-01-27", 0.4], ["2017-01-27", 0.4], ["2017-01-27", 0.35], ["2017-01-27", 0.3], ["2017-01-27", 0.4], ["2017-01-28", 0.325], ["2017-01-28", 0.25], ["2017-01-28", 0.15], ["2017-01-28", 0.15], ["2017-01-28", 0.15], ["2017-01-29", 0.15], ["2017-01-29", 0.175], ["2017-01-29", 0.15], ["2017-01-29", 0.15], ["2017-01-29", 0.15], ["2017-01-29", 0.15], ["2017-01-29", 0.17], ["2017-01-29", 0.16], ["2017-01-29", 0.185], ["2017-01-30", 0.17], 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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/392 | True |
2016-01-16 | Will Iran release Jason Rezaian before 31 October 2016? | binary | For details of the case involving Jason Rezaian, the Washington Post correspondent being held in Iran, see:
www.nytimes.com/2015/07/29/world/middleeast/irans-trial-of-jason-rezaian-illustrates-perils-faced-by-reporters.html www.cbsnews.com/news/lawyer-jason-rezaian-iran-free-washington-post-reporter-iran-nuclear-deal/
www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/lawyer-urges-iran-prison-release-for-post-journalist-in-wake-of-nuclear-deal/2015/07/28/15273ede-350d-11e5-8e66-07b4603ec92a_story.html | 2016-01-23 | gjopen | ["http://thesovereigninvestor.com/exclusives/stocks-economy-on-verge-of-collapse/", "http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13941026001314", "http://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2016/01/10/966940/kerry-urged-to-secure-post-reporter-s-release", "http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/08/media/news-outlets-kerry-jason-rezaian/index.html", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35333656", "http://www.businessinsider.com/us-confirms-iran-has-met-the-requirements-of-landmark-nuclear-deal-2016-1", "http://edition.cnn.com/2016/01/16/middleeast/iran-jason-rezaian-prisoners-freed/index.html?sr=twtsr0116iranprisoners", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/17/world/middleeast/iran-releases-washington-post-reporter-jason-rezaian.html", "http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/13/politics/iran-sailors-sanctions-obama/", "http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/01/16/iran-state-tv-announces-prisoner-swap-deal-for-four-americans-held-in-iran/", "https://twitter.com/lrozen/status/688497254865457152", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/94414", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/world-leaders-gather-in-anticipation-of-ending-iran-sanctions/2016/01/16/6c48f746-bc4b-11e5-829c-26ffb874a18d_story.html?postshare=1391452955875095&tid=ss_tw", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-usa-prisoners-insight-idUSKCN0UR01R20160113", "http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/31/six-judges-iran-crackdown-journalists-activists", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/87018", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vbeWsxWy1XU", "http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/16/middleeast/iran-jason-rezaian-prisoners-freed/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-zarif-idUSKCN0UU0C7", "http://www.businessinsider.com/iran-seizing-us-sailors-lesson-congress-troublemakers-2016-1", "http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-iran-prisoners-released-20160116-story.html", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-35333656?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_breaking&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/01/07/06jan16pm-sitrep/", "https://twitter.com/BahmanKalbasi/status/688362184208863232", "https://twitter.com/lrozen"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2015-09-01 | 1.0 | [["2015-09-02", 0.15], ["2015-09-02", 0.15], ["2015-09-02", 0.29], ["2015-09-02", 0.32], ["2015-09-03", 0.15], ["2015-09-03", 0.245], ["2015-09-04", 0.32], ["2015-09-04", 0.475], ["2015-09-05", 0.5], ["2015-09-05", 0.5], ["2015-09-06", 0.5], ["2015-09-06", 0.5], ["2015-09-08", 0.5], ["2015-09-10", 0.475], ["2015-09-10", 0.5], ["2015-09-10", 0.5], ["2015-09-10", 0.5], ["2015-09-10", 0.5], ["2015-09-10", 0.5], ["2015-09-11", 0.5], ["2015-09-11", 0.525], ["2015-09-11", 0.55], ["2015-09-11", 0.55], ["2015-09-12", 0.575], ["2015-09-12", 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["2015-09-29", 0.69], ["2015-09-29", 0.695], ["2015-09-29", 0.69], ["2015-09-29", 0.69], ["2015-09-29", 0.69], ["2015-09-30", 0.675], ["2015-09-30", 0.695], ["2015-10-01", 0.7], ["2015-10-01", 0.7], ["2015-10-01", 0.7], ["2015-10-01", 0.7], ["2015-10-01", 0.7], ["2015-10-02", 0.7], ["2015-10-02", 0.7], ["2015-10-03", 0.7], ["2015-10-03", 0.7], ["2015-10-03", 0.7], ["2015-10-04", 0.7], ["2015-10-04", 0.7], ["2015-10-04", 0.7], ["2015-10-05", 0.7], ["2015-10-05", 0.7], ["2015-10-05", 0.7], ["2015-10-06", 0.7], ["2015-10-06", 0.7], ["2015-10-07", 0.7], ["2015-10-07", 0.7], ["2015-10-07", 0.7], ["2015-10-07", 0.7], ["2015-10-08", 0.7], ["2015-10-08", 0.7], ["2015-10-08", 0.7], ["2015-10-08", 0.7], ["2015-10-09", 0.7], ["2015-10-09", 0.7], ["2015-10-10", 0.7], ["2015-10-10", 0.7], ["2015-10-11", 0.7], ["2015-10-11", 0.7], ["2015-10-11", 0.7], ["2015-10-11", 0.7], ["2015-10-11", 0.7], ["2015-10-12", 0.7], ["2015-10-12", 0.7], ["2015-10-12", 0.7], ["2015-10-12", 0.7], ["2015-10-12", 0.7], ["2015-10-12", 0.7], ["2015-10-12", 0.71], ["2015-10-12", 0.7], ["2015-10-12", 0.7], ["2015-10-13", 0.7], ["2015-10-13", 0.7], ["2015-10-13", 0.7], ["2015-10-13", 0.7], ["2015-10-13", 0.7], ["2015-10-13", 0.7], ["2015-10-14", 0.7], ["2015-10-14", 0.7], ["2015-10-14", 0.7], ["2015-10-15", 0.7], ["2015-10-15", 0.7], ["2015-10-15", 0.7], ["2015-10-16", 0.7], ["2015-10-16", 0.7], ["2015-10-17", 0.7], ["2015-10-17", 0.7], ["2015-10-17", 0.7], ["2015-10-18", 0.7], ["2015-10-18", 0.7], ["2015-10-18", 0.7], ["2015-10-18", 0.7], ["2015-10-19", 0.7], ["2015-10-19", 0.7], ["2015-10-20", 0.7], ["2015-10-20", 0.695], ["2015-10-20", 0.695], ["2015-10-21", 0.7], ["2015-10-21", 0.7], ["2015-10-22", 0.69], ["2015-10-22", 0.69], ["2015-10-23", 0.69], ["2015-10-23", 0.68], ["2015-10-24", 0.69], ["2015-10-25", 0.67], ["2015-10-25", 0.66], ["2015-10-25", 0.655], ["2015-10-25", 0.65], ["2015-10-25", 0.65], ["2015-10-25", 0.65], ["2015-10-25", 0.65], ["2015-10-25", 0.65], ["2015-10-25", 0.65], ["2015-10-25", 0.65], ["2015-10-25", 0.65], ["2015-10-25", 0.65], ["2015-10-25", 0.65], ["2015-10-25", 0.65], ["2015-10-25", 0.65], ["2015-10-25", 0.65], ["2015-10-25", 0.65], ["2015-10-25", 0.65], ["2015-10-25", 0.65], ["2015-10-25", 0.65], ["2015-10-26", 0.64], ["2015-10-26", 0.65], ["2015-10-26", 0.625], ["2015-10-26", 0.62], ["2015-10-26", 0.62], ["2015-10-26", 0.62], ["2015-10-26", 0.62], ["2015-10-26", 0.61], ["2015-10-27", 0.6], ["2015-10-27", 0.6], ["2015-10-27", 0.6], ["2015-10-27", 0.6], ["2015-10-27", 0.6], ["2015-10-28", 0.6], ["2015-10-28", 0.6], ["2015-10-28", 0.6], ["2015-10-28", 0.6], ["2015-10-28", 0.6], ["2015-10-29", 0.6], ["2015-10-30", 0.6], ["2015-10-30", 0.6], ["2015-10-30", 0.6], ["2015-10-30", 0.6], ["2015-10-31", 0.6], ["2015-10-31", 0.6], ["2015-10-31", 0.6], ["2015-10-31", 0.6], ["2015-11-01", 0.6], ["2015-11-01", 0.6], ["2015-11-01", 0.6], ["2015-11-01", 0.6], ["2015-11-02", 0.6], ["2015-11-02", 0.6], ["2015-11-02", 0.6], ["2015-11-02", 0.6], ["2015-11-03", 0.6], ["2015-11-03", 0.6], ["2015-11-03", 0.6], ["2015-11-03", 0.6], ["2015-11-04", 0.6], ["2015-11-04", 0.6], ["2015-11-04", 0.6], ["2015-11-05", 0.6], ["2015-11-05", 0.6], ["2015-11-05", 0.605], ["2015-11-06", 0.615], ["2015-11-06", 0.62], ["2015-11-06", 0.615], ["2015-11-06", 0.615], ["2015-11-07", 0.605], ["2015-11-07", 0.6], ["2015-11-07", 0.6], ["2015-11-08", 0.6], ["2015-11-09", 0.6], ["2015-11-09", 0.6], ["2015-11-09", 0.6], ["2015-11-10", 0.6], ["2015-11-10", 0.6], ["2015-11-10", 0.6], ["2015-11-10", 0.6], ["2015-11-10", 0.6], ["2015-11-11", 0.6], ["2015-11-11", 0.6], ["2015-11-12", 0.6], ["2015-11-12", 0.6], ["2015-11-13", 0.6], ["2015-11-13", 0.6], ["2015-11-13", 0.6], ["2015-11-14", 0.6], ["2015-11-14", 0.6], ["2015-11-14", 0.6], ["2015-11-15", 0.6], ["2015-11-16", 0.6], ["2015-11-16", 0.6], ["2015-11-16", 0.6], ["2015-11-17", 0.6], ["2015-11-18", 0.6], ["2015-11-18", 0.6], ["2015-11-18", 0.6], ["2015-11-19", 0.6], ["2015-11-20", 0.565], ["2015-11-21", 0.565], ["2015-11-21", 0.575], ["2015-11-22", 0.575], ["2015-11-22", 0.55], ["2015-11-22", 0.6], ["2015-11-22", 0.6], ["2015-11-23", 0.55], ["2015-11-23", 0.575], ["2015-11-23", 0.6], ["2015-11-23", 0.575], ["2015-11-23", 0.575], ["2015-11-24", 0.6], ["2015-11-24", 0.6], ["2015-11-25", 0.6], ["2015-11-26", 0.6], ["2015-11-27", 0.6], ["2015-11-27", 0.6], ["2015-11-28", 0.6], ["2015-11-28", 0.6], ["2015-11-28", 0.6], ["2015-11-29", 0.6], ["2015-11-30", 0.6], ["2015-11-30", 0.6], ["2015-12-01", 0.55], ["2015-12-01", 0.55], ["2015-12-02", 0.55], ["2015-12-02", 0.57], ["2015-12-03", 0.57], ["2015-12-03", 0.6], ["2015-12-04", 0.6], ["2015-12-05", 0.585], ["2015-12-05", 0.6], ["2015-12-06", 0.6], ["2015-12-06", 0.6], ["2015-12-07", 0.585], ["2015-12-07", 0.585], ["2015-12-08", 0.6], ["2015-12-08", 0.6], ["2015-12-09", 0.585], ["2015-12-10", 0.585], ["2015-12-10", 0.57], ["2015-12-11", 0.57], ["2015-12-11", 0.57], ["2015-12-11", 0.57], ["2015-12-12", 0.58], ["2015-12-12", 0.58], ["2015-12-13", 0.575], ["2015-12-14", 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["2016-01-03", 0.57], ["2016-01-04", 0.57], ["2016-01-04", 0.57], ["2016-01-04", 0.57], ["2016-01-04", 0.57], ["2016-01-04", 0.57], ["2016-01-04", 0.56], ["2016-01-04", 0.56], ["2016-01-05", 0.56], ["2016-01-05", 0.56], ["2016-01-05", 0.56], ["2016-01-06", 0.56], ["2016-01-06", 0.55], ["2016-01-06", 0.55], ["2016-01-07", 0.55], ["2016-01-07", 0.55], ["2016-01-07", 0.55], ["2016-01-08", 0.55], ["2016-01-08", 0.55], ["2016-01-09", 0.55], ["2016-01-09", 0.55], ["2016-01-09", 0.55], ["2016-01-10", 0.55], ["2016-01-10", 0.55], ["2016-01-10", 0.55], ["2016-01-10", 0.55], ["2016-01-11", 0.55], ["2016-01-12", 0.55], ["2016-01-12", 0.55], ["2016-01-13", 0.55], ["2016-01-13", 0.55], ["2016-01-14", 0.55], ["2016-01-14", 0.55], ["2016-01-14", 0.55], ["2016-01-14", 0.55], ["2016-01-15", 0.55], ["2016-01-15", 0.55], ["2016-01-15", 0.55], ["2016-01-16", 0.55], ["2016-01-16", 0.55], ["2016-01-16", 0.55], ["2016-01-16", 0.57], ["2016-01-16", 0.6], ["2016-01-16", 0.6], ["2016-01-16", 0.6], ["2016-01-16", 0.6], ["2016-01-16", 0.6], ["2016-01-16", 0.62], ["2016-01-16", 0.63], ["2016-01-16", 0.64], ["2016-01-16", 0.65], ["2016-01-16", 0.65], ["2016-01-16", 0.65], ["2016-01-16", 0.65], ["2016-01-16", 0.65], ["2016-01-16", 0.65], ["2016-01-16", 0.65], ["2016-01-16", 0.65], ["2016-01-16", 0.65], ["2016-01-16", 0.65], ["2016-01-16", 0.65], ["2016-01-16", 0.65], ["2016-01-16", 0.65]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/7 | True |
2016-12-14 | Will Faraday Future, NextEV, or Atieva start taking orders for electric vehicles in 2016? | binary | This question was closed as "Yes" with an end date of 14 December, 2016. Lucid Motors, formerly Atieva (<a href= "https://electrek.co/2016/10/20/atieva-becomes-lucid-motors-teaser-images-atvus-sedan/"target = "_blank">Electrek</a>), began taking orders in December 2016 (<a href = "https://lucidmotors.com/car/reserve" target = "_blank">Lucid Motors</a>, <a href = "http://www.theverge.com/2016/12/14/13959732/lucid-motors-air-electric-car-deposit-1000-horsepower"target = "_blank">The Verge</a>, <a href = "http://insideevs.com/lucid-motors-debuts-lucid-air-400-mile-ev/" target = "_blank"> Inside EVs</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>
<hr>
<a href="http://www.faradayfuture.com" target="_blank">Faraday Future</a>, <a href="http://www.nextev.com" target="_blank">NextEV</a> and <a href="http://atieva.com" target="_blank">Atieva</a> are challenging Tesla with new high-end battery-powered electric vehicles. These companies are backed by Chinese technology entrepreneurs or carmakers, have bold visions, have raised significant capital, and are being led by many former Tesla and other Silicon Valley executives (<a href="http://fortune.com/2016/04/13/faraday-future-nevada-groundbreaking/" target="_blank">Fortune</a>, <a href="http://electrek.co/2016/05/05/nextev-electric-vehicle-factory-china/" target="_blank">Electrek</a>, <a href="http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1101392_tesla-faraday-meet-atieva-your-newest-electric-car-rival" target="_blank">Green Car Reports</a>).
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<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/204" target="_blank">Will more than 6,000 new battery electric vehicles be registered in Germany in the third quarter of 2016?</a> | 2016-12-21 | gjopen | ["https://electrek.co/2016/11/21/nextev-nio-ep9-electric-1-mw-supercar/?preview_id=31674", "http://www.carnewschina.com/2016/10/24/nextev-electric-supercar-from-china-spied-testing-on-the-nurburgring/", "http://www.teslarati.com/faraday-future-contractor-halts-construction-nevada-factory/", "http://www.businessinsider.com.au/faraday-future-production-vehicle-release-date-2016-11?r=US&IR=T", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/402052", "http://www.nextev.com/en/node/39", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/400765", "http://www.motoring.com.au/nextev-high-voltage-hypercar-104619/", "http://www.futurecar.com/article-366-1.html", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/245097", "https://cleantechnica.com/2016/11/30/lucid-motors-atieva-factory-400-mile-atvus-arizona/", "http://www.motorsport.com/formula-e/news/nextev-boss-martin-leach-passes-away-after-battle-with-cancer-845955/", "https://lucidmotors.com/car/reserve", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lucid_Motors", "https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/lucid-air-electric-car-promises-executive-interior-1000-horsepower/", "http://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/future-cars/videos/a31252/nextev-electric-supercar-nurburgring/", "http://www.ff.com/subscribe/", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/402684", "http://www.carmagazine.co.uk/car-news/industry-news/nextev-2016-electric-hypercar-revealed/", "http://radio.garden/", "http://www.sfgate.com/business/article/Lucid-Motors-unveils-new-electric-car-to-10796760.php", "https://electrek.co/2016/10/20/atieva-becomes-lucid-motors-teaser-images-atvus-sedan/", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/401337", "http://www.autoevolution.com/news/nextev-1360-hp-electric-hypercar-laps-nurburgring-a-chinese-ev-record-attempt-112326.html#", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_rose_by_any_other_name_would_smell_as_sweet"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-05-17 | 1.0 | [["2016-05-17", 0.25], ["2016-05-17", 0.125], ["2016-05-17", 0.55], ["2016-05-17", 0.1], ["2016-05-17", 0.15], ["2016-05-18", 0.225], ["2016-05-18", 0.2], ["2016-05-18", 0.15], ["2016-05-18", 0.15], ["2016-05-18", 0.1], ["2016-05-19", 0.1], ["2016-05-19", 0.175], ["2016-05-19", 0.25], ["2016-05-19", 0.16], ["2016-05-19", 0.19], ["2016-05-19", 0.16], ["2016-05-20", 0.155], ["2016-05-20", 0.155], ["2016-05-20", 0.175], ["2016-05-21", 0.15], ["2016-05-21", 0.15], ["2016-05-22", 0.15], ["2016-05-22", 0.15], ["2016-05-22", 0.15], ["2016-05-22", 0.15], ["2016-05-23", 0.15], ["2016-05-23", 0.15], ["2016-05-23", 0.15], ["2016-05-23", 0.15], ["2016-05-23", 0.25], ["2016-05-24", 0.2], ["2016-05-24", 0.225], ["2016-05-24", 0.25], ["2016-05-25", 0.225], ["2016-05-25", 0.24], ["2016-05-26", 0.25], ["2016-05-26", 0.3], ["2016-05-27", 0.3], ["2016-05-27", 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2015-12-31 | Will Jurassic World (2015) pass Titanic (1997) to become the #2 all-time highest-grossing movie domestically by the end of the year? | binary | Question will be resolved based on data from Box Office Mojo (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/domestic.htm ). | 2016-01-04 | gjopen | ["http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=jurassicpark4.htm", "http://www.amazon.com/Jurassic-World-Limited-Edition-Packaging/dp/B00NYC5TVG", "http://www.boxofficemojo.com/seasonal/?chart=byseason&season=Holiday&view=releasedate", "http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekly&id=amazingspiderman2.htm", "http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=jurassicpark4.htm", "http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=releases&id=titanic.htm", "http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekly/chart/?yr=2015&wk=46&p=.htm", "http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=main&id=jurassicpark4.htm", "http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekly&id=avengers11.htm", "http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies", "http://natoonline.org/data/windows/an-open-letter-from-the-creative-community-on-protecting-the-movie%E2%80%90going-experience/", "http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/south-korea-mers-surprising-impact-804455", "http://www.boxofficemojo.com/schedule/?view=bydate&release=all&date=2015-10-02&showweeks=5&p=.htm", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/10/a-super-long-picky-post/", "http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekly&id=jurassicpark4.htm", "https://youtu.be/h6cVyoMH4QE", "http://the-numbers.com/movie/records/All-Time-Worldwide-Box-Office", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/paramount-to-break-hollywoods-home-video-window-1436377631", "http://again...remember...box/", "http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&view=chart&id=jurassicpark4.htm", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Avengers_(2012_film)#Home_media", "http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/189284/comcasts-jurassic-world-a-raging-hit-sets-global-record", "http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=titanic.htm", "http://variety.com/2015/film/news/jurassic-world-dvd-blu-ray-record-best-selling-2015-1201628758/", "http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/domestic.htm"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2015-09-14 | 0.0 | [["2015-09-14", 0.75], ["2015-09-15", 0.65], ["2015-09-15", 0.65], ["2015-09-15", 0.65], ["2015-09-15", 0.6], ["2015-09-15", 0.6], ["2015-09-15", 0.5], ["2015-09-15", 0.5], ["2015-09-15", 0.55], ["2015-09-15", 0.5], ["2015-09-15", 0.55], ["2015-09-15", 0.55], ["2015-09-15", 0.55], ["2015-09-15", 0.55], ["2015-09-16", 0.525], ["2015-09-16", 0.55], ["2015-09-16", 0.575], ["2015-09-16", 0.55], ["2015-09-16", 0.55], ["2015-09-16", 0.525], ["2015-09-16", 0.525], ["2015-09-16", 0.505], ["2015-09-16", 0.505], ["2015-09-16", 0.53], ["2015-09-16", 0.505], ["2015-09-16", 0.505], ["2015-09-16", 0.5], ["2015-09-16", 0.5], ["2015-09-16", 0.5], ["2015-09-16", 0.5], ["2015-09-16", 0.5], ["2015-09-16", 0.5], ["2015-09-16", 0.5], 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2017-07-01 | Before 1 July 2017, will China fire a missile that lands within 50 nautical miles of Taiwan? | binary | In the 1995-96 Taiwan Straits crises, China test-fired missiles in the Taiwan Strait (<a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/1996/03/12/world/china-warns-us-to-stay-out-of-taiwan-feud.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>).
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</hr>
There is no evidence that China has fired a missile landing with 50nm of Taiwan. This question was closed as "b) no" with an end date of 30 June 2017.
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| 2017-07-06 | gjopen | ["http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-china-idUSKBN16V04A", "https://asiancorrespondent.com/2017/01/china-taiwan-tensions-tinderbox-set-asia-pacific-alight/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-03-21/taiwan-launches-homegrown-submarine-program-to-counter-china", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-talks-northkorea-idUSKBN19F06H", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-38579559", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucedorminey/2017/02/15/new-chinese-missile-upgrade-likely-designed-with-taiwan-in-its-crosshairs/#6a4cbc2fba6d", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/16/china-live-fires-aircraft-carrier-group-amid-taiwan-tensions-with-us"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-03-07 | 0.0 | [["2017-03-07", 0.01], ["2017-03-07", 0.01], ["2017-03-07", 0.04], ["2017-03-08", 0.01], ["2017-03-08", 0.055], ["2017-03-08", 0.06], ["2017-03-08", 0.045], ["2017-03-08", 0.02], ["2017-03-08", 0.01], ["2017-03-09", 0.005], 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2018-10-01 | Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines? | binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">The EWP</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2018 and will be resolved in July 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in the Philippines from July 2018 to June 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this. | 2019-12-09 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2018-06-27 | 1.0 | [["2018-06-27", 0.05], ["2018-06-27", 0.01], ["2018-06-27", 0.08], ["2018-06-27", 0.4], ["2018-06-27", 0.375], ["2018-06-27", 0.44], ["2018-06-27", 0.15], ["2018-06-27", 0.15], ["2018-06-27", 0.19], ["2018-06-28", 0.24], ["2018-06-28", 0.19], ["2018-06-28", 0.19], ["2018-06-29", 0.15], ["2018-06-29", 0.14], ["2018-06-29", 0.1], ["2018-06-29", 0.09], ["2018-06-29", 0.09], ["2018-07-01", 0.075], ["2018-07-01", 0.035], ["2018-07-02", 0.02], ["2018-07-02", 0.02], ["2018-07-02", 0.02], ["2018-07-03", 0.02], ["2018-07-03", 0.02], ["2018-07-03", 0.02], ["2018-07-03", 0.025], ["2018-07-03", 0.03], ["2018-07-06", 0.05], ["2018-07-06", 0.05], ["2018-07-09", 0.05], ["2018-07-10", 0.05], ["2018-07-12", 0.05], ["2018-07-12", 0.05], ["2018-07-13", 0.05], ["2018-07-15", 0.05], ["2018-07-15", 0.05], ["2018-07-15", 0.05], ["2018-07-16", 0.04], ["2018-07-17", 0.035], ["2018-07-18", 0.035], ["2018-07-19", 0.035], ["2018-07-20", 0.03], ["2018-07-22", 0.025], ["2018-07-23", 0.025], ["2018-07-24", 0.03], ["2018-07-26", 0.02], ["2018-07-27", 0.025], ["2018-07-27", 0.02], ["2018-07-29", 0.025], ["2018-07-30", 0.025], ["2018-07-30", 0.025], ["2018-07-31", 0.03], ["2018-07-31", 0.05], ["2018-08-02", 0.05], ["2018-08-02", 0.04], ["2018-08-03", 0.03], ["2018-08-03", 0.04], ["2018-08-05", 0.05], ["2018-08-05", 0.05], ["2018-08-07", 0.05], ["2018-08-09", 0.04], ["2018-08-09", 0.045], ["2018-08-10", 0.035], ["2018-08-12", 0.03], ["2018-08-13", 0.03], ["2018-08-14", 0.03], ["2018-08-16", 0.035], ["2018-08-16", 0.025], ["2018-08-18", 0.025], ["2018-08-19", 0.035], ["2018-08-21", 0.04], ["2018-08-22", 0.04], ["2018-08-22", 0.035], ["2018-08-23", 0.04], ["2018-08-27", 0.04], ["2018-08-28", 0.04], ["2018-08-29", 0.04], ["2018-08-31", 0.04], ["2018-09-02", 0.05], ["2018-09-03", 0.05], ["2018-09-06", 0.05], ["2018-09-06", 0.05], ["2018-09-10", 0.05], ["2018-09-10", 0.05], ["2018-09-11", 0.05], ["2018-09-13", 0.05], ["2018-09-13", 0.05], ["2018-09-16", 0.055], ["2018-09-17", 0.05], ["2018-09-18", 0.05], ["2018-09-20", 0.05], ["2018-09-20", 0.05], ["2018-09-21", 0.05], ["2018-09-22", 0.05], ["2018-09-22", 0.05], ["2018-09-24", 0.05], ["2018-09-24", 0.05], ["2018-09-25", 0.05], ["2018-09-26", 0.05], ["2018-09-28", 0.05], ["2018-09-29", 0.05], ["2018-09-29", 0.05], ["2018-10-01", 0.05]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/971 | True |
2017-06-01 | Will the Dakota Access Pipeline begin transporting oil before January 2018? | binary | The Dakota Access Pipeline is a 1,172 mile pipeline built to transport oil from the Bakken shale oil fields of North Dakota to Illinois (<a href="http://www.daplpipelinefacts.com/" target="_blank">Energy Transfer Partners, L.P.</a>). Originally scheduled to be operational by the end of 2016, its completion has been stalled by protests (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/02/us/north-dakota-oil-pipeline-battle-whos-fighting-and-why.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>) and a US Army Corps of Engineer report (<a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/04/us-army-corps-of-engineers-denies-easement-for-dakota-access-pipeline-sioux.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also try forecasting on <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/195" target="_blank">whether the DAPA program will be implemented prior to inauguration day</a>, <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/299" target="_blank">whether the Trans-Pacific Partnership will be ratified by Congress before 20 January 2017</a>, or <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/307" target="_blank">whether farmland values in the Seventh Federal Reserve District will be higher in the first quarter of 2017 than they were in first quarter of 2016</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question was closed as "yes" with an end date of 1 June 2017 (<a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/38-billion-dakota-access-oil-pipeline-begins-service/2017/06/01/ad99020e-46dd-11e7-8de1-cec59a9bf4b1_story.html?utm_term=.fdd58b34f6b7"target="_blank">Washington Post</a>, <a href = "http://ir.energytransfer.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=106094&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2278014"target="_blank">Energy Transfer Partners</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| 2017-06-06 | gjopen | ["https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/42/1996", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/15/asia/river-personhood-trnd/", "https://www.desmogblog.com/2017/04/03/dakota-access-oil-by-rail", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-energy-nationalparks-idUSKBN14V1EP", "https://origin-nyi.thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/335898-dakota-access-pipeline-now-in-service", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-north-dakota-pipeline-idUSKBN17F2TO", "http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/dakota-access-pipeline-operation-months-resistance/", "http://edition.cnn.com/2017/06/01/us/dakota-access-pipeline-oil-flowing/", "https://daplpipelinefacts.com/about-the-dakota-access-pipeline/", "https://www.pri.org/stories/2017-04-01/himalayan-glaciers-are-granted-rights-human-beings-protection", "http://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2017/05/22/dapl-system-leaks-march/", "http://www.businessinsider.com/the-dakota-access-pipeline-sprung-2-new-leaks-2017-5", "http://www.refinery29.com/2017/04/150004/dakota-access-pipeline-date-start-delivering-oil", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/01/us/dakota-access-pipeline-oil-flowing/", "https://www.bna.com/dakota-access-pipeline-n57982087544/", "http://www.kfyrtv.com/content/news/Dakota-Access-Pipeline-begins-pumping-crude-oil-from-Bakken-to-Illinois-422384134.html", "https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/the-dakota-access-pipeline-is-already-leaking", "http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/332810-dakota-access-pipeline-leaks-84-gallons-of-oil-in-sd", "http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/06/01/531097758/crude-oil-begins-to-flow-through-controversial-dakota-access-pipeline", "https://www.law360.com/articles/911420/dakota-access-mostly-loses-bid-to-shield-suit-documents", "http://arcgis.sd.gov/server/denr/spillsviewer/", "http://fortune.com/2017/04/14/dakota-access-pipeline-interstate-delivery/", "http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/335898-dakota-access-pipeline-now-in-service", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/22/asia/india-river-human/", "http://www.ncai.org/about-tribes/indians_101.pdf"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-12-09 | 1.0 | [["2016-12-09", 0.545], ["2016-12-09", 0.72], ["2016-12-10", 0.75], ["2016-12-10", 0.35], ["2016-12-10", 0.365], ["2016-12-10", 0.54], ["2016-12-10", 0.57], ["2016-12-11", 0.545], ["2016-12-11", 0.55], ["2016-12-11", 0.54], ["2016-12-11", 0.45], ["2016-12-12", 0.3], ["2016-12-12", 0.275], ["2016-12-12", 0.275], ["2016-12-12", 0.35], ["2016-12-12", 0.375], ["2016-12-12", 0.4], ["2016-12-12", 0.375], ["2016-12-13", 0.45], ["2016-12-13", 0.415], ["2016-12-13", 0.44], ["2016-12-13", 0.44], ["2016-12-14", 0.475], ["2016-12-14", 0.52], ["2016-12-15", 0.5], ["2016-12-15", 0.49], ["2016-12-15", 0.48], ["2016-12-16", 0.48], ["2016-12-17", 0.49], ["2016-12-18", 0.5], ["2016-12-18", 0.525], ["2016-12-18", 0.55], ["2016-12-18", 0.525], ["2016-12-18", 0.55], ["2016-12-18", 0.525], ["2016-12-19", 0.49], ["2016-12-19", 0.45], 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2019-06-26 | In Tennessee Wine & Spirits Retailers Association v. Blair, will the Supreme Court rule that Tennessee's residency requirements for issuing liquor licenses are unconstitutional? | binary | In February 2018, the Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit affirmed a district court's ruling that Tennessee's minimum residency requirements for retail or wholesale liquor license applicants violated the dormant Commerce Clause of the Constitution by discriminating against out-of-state individuals and entities (<a href="http://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/tennessee-wine-spirits-retailers-association-v-byrd/" target="_blank">SCOTUSBlog</a>). A Tennessee association of retailers appealed to the Supreme Court, arguing that the state's requirements are permissible under the Twenty-first Amendment, which repealed Prohibition (<a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2018/18-96" target="_blank">Oyez</a>). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2018 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as no.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.supremecourt.gov/opinions/18pdf/18-96_5i36.pdf" target="_blank">SCOTUS</a>). </p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2019-06-26 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2018-12-07 | 1.0 | [["2018-12-07", 1.0], ["2018-12-07", 0.0], ["2018-12-07", 0.165], ["2018-12-07", 0.465], ["2018-12-08", 0.675], ["2018-12-08", 0.6], ["2018-12-08", 0.15], ["2018-12-09", 0.15], ["2018-12-10", 0.11], ["2018-12-10", 0.13], ["2018-12-10", 0.125], ["2018-12-10", 0.095], ["2018-12-10", 0.12], ["2018-12-11", 0.12], ["2018-12-11", 0.12], ["2018-12-13", 0.15], ["2018-12-13", 0.16], ["2018-12-14", 0.17], ["2018-12-14", 0.185], ["2018-12-16", 0.19], ["2018-12-16", 0.225], ["2018-12-16", 0.225], ["2018-12-16", 0.25], ["2018-12-17", 0.25], ["2018-12-18", 0.33], ["2018-12-18", 0.33], ["2018-12-19", 0.415], ["2018-12-19", 0.415], ["2018-12-20", 0.415], ["2018-12-22", 0.415], ["2018-12-24", 0.415], ["2018-12-24", 0.415], ["2018-12-26", 0.415], ["2018-12-28", 0.415], ["2018-12-30", 0.415], ["2018-12-31", 0.415], ["2019-01-02", 0.3], ["2019-01-04", 0.3], ["2019-01-04", 0.3], ["2019-01-04", 0.34], ["2019-01-06", 0.33], ["2019-01-06", 0.33], ["2019-01-06", 0.29], ["2019-01-06", 0.2], ["2019-01-06", 0.2], ["2019-01-06", 0.2], ["2019-01-06", 0.15], ["2019-01-06", 0.175], ["2019-01-07", 0.175], ["2019-01-09", 0.175], ["2019-01-09", 0.175], ["2019-01-10", 0.2], ["2019-01-11", 0.15], ["2019-01-12", 0.175], ["2019-01-13", 0.225], ["2019-01-14", 0.25], ["2019-01-14", 0.25], ["2019-01-16", 0.35], ["2019-01-16", 0.35], ["2019-01-17", 0.515], ["2019-01-19", 0.685], ["2019-01-20", 0.685], ["2019-01-20", 0.685], ["2019-01-24", 0.685], ["2019-01-26", 0.68], ["2019-02-03", 0.69], ["2019-02-04", 0.69], ["2019-02-05", 0.69], ["2019-02-09", 0.68], ["2019-02-13", 0.685], ["2019-02-16", 0.72], ["2019-02-19", 0.75], ["2019-02-23", 0.75], ["2019-02-24", 0.75], ["2019-02-25", 0.75], ["2019-02-26", 0.75], ["2019-03-04", 0.75], ["2019-03-09", 0.75], ["2019-03-10", 0.775], ["2019-03-11", 0.775], ["2019-03-11", 0.775], ["2019-03-13", 0.775], ["2019-03-14", 0.775], ["2019-03-18", 0.75], ["2019-03-19", 0.75], ["2019-03-21", 0.75], ["2019-03-22", 0.75], ["2019-03-22", 0.8], ["2019-03-24", 0.8], ["2019-03-26", 0.8], ["2019-03-29", 0.775], ["2019-03-30", 0.825], ["2019-03-31", 0.775], ["2019-04-02", 0.8], ["2019-04-02", 0.8], ["2019-04-02", 0.8], ["2019-04-05", 0.8], ["2019-04-11", 0.775], ["2019-04-11", 0.75], ["2019-04-11", 0.75], ["2019-04-11", 0.75], ["2019-04-11", 0.75], ["2019-04-11", 0.75], ["2019-04-11", 0.75], ["2019-04-12", 0.75], ["2019-04-12", 0.75], ["2019-04-12", 0.75], ["2019-04-12", 0.75], ["2019-04-12", 0.75], ["2019-04-13", 0.75], ["2019-04-13", 0.75], ["2019-04-14", 0.75], ["2019-04-15", 0.75], ["2019-04-16", 0.75], ["2019-04-16", 0.75], ["2019-04-17", 0.725], ["2019-04-18", 0.75], ["2019-04-20", 0.75], ["2019-04-20", 0.75], ["2019-04-22", 0.7], ["2019-04-23", 0.7], ["2019-04-24", 0.675], ["2019-04-24", 0.635], ["2019-04-26", 0.635], ["2019-04-27", 0.62], ["2019-04-27", 0.65], ["2019-04-28", 0.65], ["2019-04-30", 0.65], ["2019-04-30", 0.675], ["2019-05-02", 0.67], ["2019-05-03", 0.67], ["2019-05-03", 0.635], ["2019-05-05", 0.67], ["2019-05-06", 0.67], ["2019-05-06", 0.67], ["2019-05-06", 0.69], ["2019-05-07", 0.65], ["2019-05-09", 0.67], ["2019-05-12", 0.675], ["2019-05-13", 0.675], ["2019-05-14", 0.7], ["2019-05-15", 0.7], ["2019-05-17", 0.7], ["2019-05-17", 0.7], ["2019-05-17", 0.7], ["2019-05-20", 0.7], ["2019-05-21", 0.72], ["2019-05-21", 0.7], ["2019-05-22", 0.7], ["2019-05-23", 0.7], ["2019-05-24", 0.7], ["2019-05-24", 0.7], ["2019-05-27", 0.7], ["2019-05-28", 0.7], ["2019-05-30", 0.675], ["2019-05-30", 0.68], ["2019-06-01", 0.68], ["2019-06-03", 0.68], ["2019-06-07", 0.7], ["2019-06-07", 0.7], ["2019-06-08", 0.7], ["2019-06-12", 0.7], ["2019-06-13", 0.7], ["2019-06-13", 0.7], ["2019-06-14", 0.7], ["2019-06-16", 0.7], ["2019-06-17", 0.7], ["2019-06-19", 0.7], ["2019-06-19", 0.7], ["2019-06-20", 0.7], ["2019-06-21", 0.7], ["2019-06-21", 0.7], ["2019-06-21", 0.69], ["2019-06-24", 0.68], ["2019-06-25", 0.7], ["2019-06-25", 0.7], ["2019-06-25", 0.7], ["2019-06-25", 0.69], ["2019-06-26", 0.69]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1057 | True |
2019-01-01 | Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States before 1 January 2019? | binary | A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps, including Quds and Basij (<a href = "http://iranprimer.usip.org/resource/revolutionary-guards"target="-blank">The Iran Primer</a>, <a href = "https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/irans-revolutionary-guards"target="_blank">Council on Foreign Relations</a>, <a href = "http://www.mei.edu/content/io/increasing-role-iran-s-basij-force-syria-war"target="_blank">Middle East Institute</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question should close as "No" with an end date of 12/31/2018. There were no verifiable fatalities resulting from a confrontation between the US and Iran over the duration of this question.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. | 2019-01-02 | gjopen | ["https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-21vccBEZxM", "https://en.radiofarda.com/a/iran-withdraw-from-nuclear-deal-if-no-economic-benefit/29056526.html", "http://www.personalitypage.com/html/INTJ.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/816-what-will-be-the-daily-closing-spot-price-of-brent-crude-oil-usd-per-barrel-on-20-december-2017-according-to-the-u-s-eia", "http://www.arabnews.com/node/1248371", "https://twitter.com/BattlesStudies/status/965936322715308033?ref_src=twcamp%5Ecopy%7Ctwsrc%5Eandroid%7Ctwgr%5Ecopy%7Ctwcon%5E7090%7Ctwterm%5E3", "https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://stanford.edu/~knutson/nfc/mellers15.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjLpdGVs67ZAhXSyVMKHS81Cx4QFjAAegQIExAB&usg=AOvVaw3BAzYyDRLGEv4VY74lKtj5", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43114312", "https://www.debka.com/200-russian-advisers-killed-last-weeks-clash-us-forces-syria/", "https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/news/2018/2/19/iran-to-recover-war-losses-by-exploiting-syrias-resources", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-43146042", "https://www.rferl.org/a/syria-russia-severl-dozen-killed-idlib/29050568.html", "https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://sites.hks.harvard.edu/fs/rzeckhau/Geopolitical%2520Risks.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwip55renq_ZAhWH0FMKHYg_AmU4ChAWMAB6BAgREAE&usg=AOvVaw25PE4TILB4h35H_-9m9cMj", "https://astutenews.com/2018/02/19/wagner-in-syria-is-the-iranian-tail-trying-to-wag-the-russian-american-dog/", "http://www.futuresmag.com/2016/01/15/it%E2%80%99s-not-just-what-you-forecast-it%E2%80%99s-how-you-forecast", "http://streetwiseprofessor.com/?p=10826", "https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/19/world/middleeast/iran-syria-israel.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news", "https://stanford.edu/~knutson/nfc/mellers15.pdf", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-43121547", "http://www.newsweek.com/iran-most-famous-general-more-popular-president-new-threats-home-abroad-813803", "https://memegenerator.net/instance/63558376/varg-vikernes-coincidence-i-dont-think-so", "https://twitter.com/IbnSiqilli/status/961795478068301824?ref_src=twcamp%5Ecopy%7Ctwsrc%5Eandroid%7Ctwgr%5Ecopy%7Ctwcon%5E7090%7Ctwterm%5E3", "http://statusmind.com/clever-facebook-status-2570/", "https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/feb/18/the-new-great-game-in-syria/", "https://sites.hks.harvard.edu/fs/rzeckhau/Geopolitical%20Risks.pdf"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-12-15 | 0.0 | [["2017-12-15", 0.03], ["2017-12-16", 0.05], ["2017-12-16", 0.05], ["2017-12-16", 0.15], 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2018-10-01 | Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from South Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in South Sudan? | binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">The EWP</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2018 and will be resolved in July 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in South Sudan from July 2018 to June 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
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<hr> | 2019-12-09 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2018-06-27 | 0.0 | [["2018-06-27", 0.03], ["2018-06-27", 0.1], ["2018-06-27", 0.15], ["2018-06-27", 0.475], ["2018-06-27", 0.51], ["2018-06-27", 0.27], ["2018-06-27", 0.27], ["2018-06-27", 0.315], ["2018-06-28", 0.21], ["2018-06-28", 0.205], ["2018-06-28", 0.205], ["2018-06-29", 0.05], ["2018-06-29", 0.05], ["2018-06-29", 0.05], ["2018-07-01", 0.1], ["2018-07-02", 0.1], ["2018-07-02", 0.1], ["2018-07-02", 0.08], ["2018-07-03", 0.04], ["2018-07-03", 0.04], ["2018-07-03", 0.06], ["2018-07-03", 0.05], ["2018-07-03", 0.055], ["2018-07-06", 0.1], ["2018-07-06", 0.1], ["2018-07-07", 0.165], ["2018-07-09", 0.165], ["2018-07-12", 0.165], ["2018-07-12", 0.165], ["2018-07-12", 0.18], ["2018-07-13", 0.18], ["2018-07-15", 0.18], ["2018-07-15", 0.18], ["2018-07-16", 0.18], ["2018-07-16", 0.165], ["2018-07-18", 0.165], ["2018-07-19", 0.165], ["2018-07-20", 0.165], ["2018-07-22", 0.165], ["2018-07-23", 0.165], ["2018-07-23", 0.165], ["2018-07-24", 0.175], ["2018-07-24", 0.175], ["2018-07-29", 0.175], ["2018-07-30", 0.225], ["2018-07-30", 0.225], ["2018-08-02", 0.225], ["2018-08-02", 0.225], ["2018-08-03", 0.225], ["2018-08-04", 0.275], ["2018-08-05", 0.3], ["2018-08-05", 0.3], ["2018-08-06", 0.3], ["2018-08-06", 0.3], ["2018-08-06", 0.25], ["2018-08-07", 0.25], ["2018-08-08", 0.17], ["2018-08-09", 0.17], ["2018-08-09", 0.18], ["2018-08-09", 0.175], ["2018-08-10", 0.16], ["2018-08-11", 0.16], ["2018-08-12", 0.16], ["2018-08-12", 0.16], ["2018-08-13", 0.16], ["2018-08-13", 0.16], ["2018-08-14", 0.15], ["2018-08-14", 0.15], ["2018-08-15", 0.16], ["2018-08-16", 0.155], ["2018-08-18", 0.15], ["2018-08-18", 0.15], ["2018-08-18", 0.15], ["2018-08-22", 0.15], ["2018-08-23", 0.15], ["2018-08-23", 0.15], ["2018-08-23", 0.15], ["2018-08-25", 0.15], ["2018-08-27", 0.15], ["2018-08-28", 0.15], ["2018-08-28", 0.15], ["2018-09-01", 0.15], ["2018-09-01", 0.15], ["2018-09-01", 0.15], ["2018-09-02", 0.15], ["2018-09-02", 0.15], ["2018-09-02", 0.17], ["2018-09-03", 0.16], ["2018-09-03", 0.15], ["2018-09-06", 0.15], ["2018-09-07", 0.15], ["2018-09-08", 0.15], ["2018-09-09", 0.15], ["2018-09-09", 0.155], ["2018-09-10", 0.15], ["2018-09-11", 0.15], ["2018-09-11", 0.145], ["2018-09-12", 0.15], ["2018-09-12", 0.15], ["2018-09-12", 0.15], ["2018-09-13", 0.15], ["2018-09-13", 0.15], ["2018-09-15", 0.15], ["2018-09-16", 0.15], ["2018-09-17", 0.15], ["2018-09-18", 0.15], ["2018-09-19", 0.145], ["2018-09-20", 0.15], ["2018-09-20", 0.15], ["2018-09-21", 0.15], ["2018-09-22", 0.15], ["2018-09-24", 0.15], ["2018-09-28", 0.15], ["2018-09-29", 0.15], ["2018-09-29", 0.125], ["2018-10-01", 0.125]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/969 | True |
2017-07-01 | Before July 2017, will the New Development Bank issue any rupee-denominated bonds? | binary | The Shanghai-based New Development Bank, a.k.a. the BRICS bank, issued its first yuan-denominated bonds in July of 2016, and bank officials have said that in the future the bank will consider issuing more bonds in its members' local currencies, including the Indian rupee (INR) (<a href="http://www.firstpost.com/world/brics-new-development-bank-to-issue-bonds-in-chinese-currency-2810062.html" target="_blank">First Post</a>, <a href="http://www.financialexpress.com/industry/banking-finance/new-development-bank-completes-first-green-bond-sale-sees-strong-orders/321752/" target="_blank">The Financial Express</a>). For more information on the New Development Bank see <a href="http://www.ndb.int/news.php" target="_blank">the bank's press page</a>.
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</hr>
To date the BRICS bank has not issued rupee-denominated bonds. This question was closed as "b) no" with an end date of 30 June 2017
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<hr> | 2017-07-06 | gjopen | ["http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/02/reuters-america-brics-bank-to-lend-between-25-3-bln-in-2017--china-daily.html", "http://www.bbc.com/news/business-38807695?utm_campaign=Daily+Fringe+&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=41707707&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_UPVDjdVigBoLKO3vme7R4Ycpxrxn-zyYpmxtpv9UNUR43wgEbazdRRaQlAjt1wugREXBggW77S6NscH0J9uiwrsBDsw&_hsmi=41707707", "http://www.lseg.com/sites/default/files/content/documents/20170105%20Masala%20Bonds%20Presentation_1.pdf", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-brics-idUSKBN1711LV?il=0", "http://www.livemint.com/Industry/Ct7OWetkVebzM9AjUpfEGO/HDFC-raises-504-million-via-masala-bonds.html", "http://www.londonstockexchange.com/specialist-issuers/debts-bonds/masala/masala-factsheet.pdf", "http://www.livemint.com/Industry/YfZrBKSXfOzEKynXLrPlrL/NDB-plans-to-issue-masala-bonds.html", "http://www.longfinance.net/images/GFCI18_23Sep2015.pdf", "http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/30/reuters-america-update-1-brics-development-bank-to-issue-up-to-500-million-in-masala-bonds.html", "http://ndb.int/China-inks-deal-with-BRICS-bank-approving-525-mn-yuan-loan.php", "http://ndb.int/New%20Development-Bank-end-2-5-billion-next-year-KV-Kamath.php#parentHorizontalTab2", "http://asia.nikkei.com/Markets/Commodities/New-Delhi-struggles-with-wheat-tariffs-dilemma-as-prices-fall?n_cid=NARAN11&utm_source=NAR%20Newsletter&utm_campaign=RN%20Free%20newsletter&utm_medium=daily%20newsletter%20free&utm_content=article%20link", "http://in.reuters.com/article/india-brics-development-bank-idINKBN1720C9", "http://ndb.int/BRICSbankNDBtosellGreenrenminbibonds.php", "http://www.ndb.int/medias/brics-development-bank-issue-500-million-masala-bonds-reuters/", "http://ndb.int/BRICS-Bank-to-finance-Indian-Chinese-infrastructure-projects.php", "https://www.dlapiper.com/en/hongkong/insights/publications/2017/03/appetite-for-masala-bonds-grows/", "http://www.livemint.com/Industry/08hlIUpKTYvZYHwfMU8bzH/Brics-development-bank-to-issue-up-to-500-million-in-masala.html", "http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/bonds/rbi-allows-multilateral-agencies-to-invest-in-masala-bonds/articleshow/57190529.cms", "http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2017-03/02/content_28400588.htm", "http://www.lseg.com/sites/default/files/content/documents/Rupee%20bonds%20factsheet%20-%20final_0.pdf", "http://www.tnp.sg/news/singapore/indian-companies-spice-things-singapore-masala-bonds", "https://sputniknews.com/business/201611031047045140-india-standard-and-poors-rating-highlights/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-budget-privatisation-idUSKBN15L06M", "http://www.ndb.int/medias/brics-bank-launch-twin-bonds/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-08-02 | 0.0 | [["2016-08-02", 0.3], ["2016-08-02", 0.525], ["2016-08-02", 1.0], ["2016-08-02", 0.97], ["2016-08-02", 0.72], ["2016-08-03", 0.82], ["2016-08-03", 0.735], ["2016-08-03", 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2018-01-01 | Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed in 2017? | binary | RCEP is a regional trade agreement between Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) members and their free trade agreement partners (<a href = "https://aric.adb.org/fta/regional-comprehensive-economic-partnership"target = "_blank">Asia Regional Integration Center</a>, <a href = "http://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/2060041/trump-kills-tpp-can-china-backed-rcep-fill-gap"target = "_blank">South China Morning Post</a>). Countries participating in the trade initiative failed to conclude a deal in 2016 but have indicated a work plan for 2017 is forthcoming (<a href = "http://www.ictsd.org/bridges-news/bridges/news/asia-pacific-japan-ratifies-tpp-rcep-gears-up-for-2017"target = "_blank">International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development</a>, <a href = "http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2015/12/17/asean-wants-a-rcep-trade-deal-by-the-2016-deadline/"target = "_blank">The Star</a>). A "yes" resolution requires that the negotiators reach an agreement. Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required.
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<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/377-before-30-april-2017-will-the-u-s-provide-notice-of-intent-to-withdraw-from-nafta"target = "_blank">the US will provide notice of intent to withdraw from NAFTA before April 30th, 2017</a>, or on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/368-will-india-sign-either-of-the-two-remaining-defense-foundational-agreements-with-the-u-s-before-2018"target = "_blank">India will sign either of the two remaining defense foundational agreements with the US before 2018.</sub>
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Negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) were not completed in 2017. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
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<hr>
| 2018-01-02 | gjopen | ["http://www.reuters.com/article/us-asean-philippines-idUSKBN1AL05R", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-apec-vietnam-idUSKCN18H02B", "http://www.india.com/news/agencies/with-tpp-gone-rcep-is-now-more-urgent-malaysian-pm-1988910/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-13/agreeing-on-china-s-favorite-trade-deal-set-to-drag-into-2018", "http://www.bilaterals.org/?fine-tuning-rcep-could-take-till", "http://www.china.org.cn/world/Off_the_Wire/2017-07/20/content_41252164.htm", "http://bilaterals.org/?regional-comprehensive-economic", "http://www.bilaterals.org/?chileans-protest-bid-to-revive", "http://www.livemint.com/Politics/m7oHka4DBZoNIlfabyStCP/RCEP-talks-hit-a-snag-over-Indias-demand-for-liberalization.html", "http://www.deccanchronicle.com/nation/current-affairs/280617/rcep-pact-700-officials-from-16-nations-to-meet-in-hyderabad.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-10/fed-rate-hikes-raise-risks-for-asian-nations-swimming-in-debt", "http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-wp-trade-india-analysis-42c18c34-1ba5-11e7-855e-4824bbb5d748-20170407-story.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-silkroad-india-idUSKBN18A07L", "http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/jCOfYtaeoNwunvvYKEx3RO/Bumps-in-the-road-for-IndiaUS-trade.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-03-26/pboc-s-zhou-signals-financial-opening-will-require-negotiation", "http://www.bilaterals.org/?asean-members-reaffirm-90-per-cent", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-singapore-trade-idUSKBN1930RR", "http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/02/27/business/16-nation-rcep-talks-resume-wake-tpps-demise/#.WPsRXYjyuUk", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-asean-summit-trade-idUSKBN17S0T2", "https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-02/go-slow-india-may-water-down-china-championed-asia-trade-pact", "http://www.bilaterals.org/?rcep-misses-deadline-again", "http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/askst-will-the-regional-comprehensive-economic-partnership-conclude-this-year", "http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/03/23/business/head-asia-trade-talks-warns-adding-elements-trump-derailed-tpp-new-pact/", "http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/will-rcep-be-a-reality-by-the-end-of-2017", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/469126"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-01-24 | 0.0 | [["2017-01-24", 0.475], ["2017-01-24", 0.7], ["2017-01-24", 0.775], ["2017-01-25", 0.75], ["2017-01-25", 0.35], ["2017-01-25", 0.25], ["2017-01-26", 0.375], ["2017-01-26", 0.375], ["2017-01-27", 0.25], ["2017-01-28", 0.125], ["2017-01-28", 0.1], ["2017-01-29", 0.1], ["2017-01-29", 0.14], ["2017-01-30", 0.15], ["2017-01-30", 0.23], ["2017-01-30", 0.275], ["2017-01-31", 0.3], ["2017-02-01", 0.325], ["2017-02-02", 0.425], ["2017-02-02", 0.425], ["2017-02-03", 0.4], ["2017-02-04", 0.34], 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["2017-03-11", 0.15], ["2017-03-11", 0.15], ["2017-03-12", 0.15], ["2017-03-13", 0.15], ["2017-03-13", 0.15], ["2017-03-14", 0.15], ["2017-03-16", 0.15], ["2017-03-16", 0.14], ["2017-03-17", 0.14], ["2017-03-17", 0.14], ["2017-03-18", 0.14], ["2017-03-19", 0.15], ["2017-03-20", 0.15], ["2017-03-22", 0.15], ["2017-03-22", 0.15], ["2017-03-23", 0.15], ["2017-03-24", 0.15], ["2017-03-25", 0.14], ["2017-03-25", 0.14], ["2017-03-26", 0.14], ["2017-03-27", 0.145], ["2017-03-28", 0.15], ["2017-03-28", 0.15], ["2017-03-29", 0.15], ["2017-03-30", 0.15], ["2017-03-30", 0.15], ["2017-03-31", 0.15], ["2017-04-01", 0.15], ["2017-04-02", 0.15], ["2017-04-03", 0.15], ["2017-04-03", 0.15], ["2017-04-04", 0.15], ["2017-04-05", 0.15], ["2017-04-05", 0.15], ["2017-04-06", 0.15], ["2017-04-07", 0.15], ["2017-04-08", 0.15], ["2017-04-08", 0.15], ["2017-04-09", 0.145], ["2017-04-09", 0.145], ["2017-04-11", 0.14], ["2017-04-12", 0.14], ["2017-04-12", 0.14], ["2017-04-12", 0.15], ["2017-04-13", 0.14], 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["2017-12-10", 0.0], ["2017-12-10", 0.0], ["2017-12-12", 0.0], ["2017-12-13", 0.0], ["2017-12-13", 0.0], ["2017-12-14", 0.0], ["2017-12-15", 0.0], ["2017-12-16", 0.0], ["2017-12-17", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-21", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-23", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-25", 0.0], ["2017-12-26", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2018-01-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/390 | True |
2016-11-13 | Will the government of Colombia and the FARC renegotiate a peace agreement before 1 March 2017? | binary | This question was closed with the correct answer 'Yes' with an end date of 13 November 2016. The government of Columbia and the FARC reached an agreement on a new peace deal on 13 November 2016 (<a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-37965392" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/12/world/colombia-farc-peace/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/11/12/501863434/colombia-farc-rebels-announce-a-new-peace-deal" target="_blank">NPR</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>
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On 2 October 2016 the Colombian people voted to reject a peace accord between Colombia and the FARC (<a href="https://thecitypaperbogota.com/news/no-wins-colombians-narrowly-rejects-peace-accord-with-farc/14639" target="_blank">The City Paper Bogota</a>). Since the referendum rejection, both sides have said they will return to negotiations, and President Santos has said he'd like to see a deal by the end of the year (<a href="http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/can-colombia-rework-farc-deal-without-jeopardizing-peace/" target="_blank">PBS NewsHour</a>, <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/colombia-farc-ceasefire-peace-talks-nobel-prize-1.3795764" target="_blank">CBC News</a>). Renegotiation requires that Colombia and the FARC agree on the terms of a peace agreement. Ratification is not required. However, interim agreements on specific topics (e.g. <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-33017258" target="_blank">BBC</a>) will NOT resolve this question.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/298" target="_blank">whether Yemen's Houthi rebels will sign a peace agreement</a>, or <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/302" target="_blank">whether the US will endorse a peace plan that allows Bashar al-Assad to remain in power</a>.</sub> | 2016-11-16 | gjopen | ["http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/future-of-colombias-new-peace-deal-with-farc-rests-with-no-campaign/article32847123/", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/02/colombias-peace-deal-with-farc-risks-dragging-it-further-down-th/", "http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21710152-will-second-attempt-fare-better-first-colombia-and-farc-strike-new-peace", "https://soundcloud.com/latinpulse/special-cuban-perspective-derailing-peace-colombia-lp11122016", "http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/colombia-peace-sides-signing-accord-43500076", "http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-colombia-peace-idUKKBN13A1Y3?il=0", "http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/colombia/article114862333.html", "http://edition.cnn.com/2016/11/12/world/colombia-farc-peace/", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-12/colombia-reaches-new-final-peace-agreement-with-farc-rebels", "http://colombiareports.com/un-resumes-colombia-ceasefire-verification-reduced-mandate/", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/15/opinion/colombias-revised-peace-accord.html?emc=edit_ee_20161115&nl=todaysheadlines-europe&nlid=70183565&_r=0", "http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/columbia-farc-amend-peace-deal/", "https://www.rte.ie/news/2016/1023/826195-colombia-farc-peace-talks/", "http://colombiareports.com/colombias-political-parties-less-popular-farc-guerrillas-gallup/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/colombians-vote-on-historic-peace-agreement-with-farc-rebels/2016/10/02/8ef1a2a2-84b4-11e6-b57d-dd49277af02f_story.html", "http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-colombia-peace-idUKKBN1370PZ", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-37686287", "http://colombiapeace.org/", "http://colombiareports.com/colombia-government-closes-door-peace-deal-opposition/", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/29/colombia-farc-peace-by-christmas-juan-manuel-santos", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/379849", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/colombias-peace-maker-and-his-country-on-edge-ahead-of-crucial-sunday-vote/2016/10/01/271f5db6-8718-11e6-b57d-dd49277af02f_story.html", "http://generacionpaz.co/content/pese-tensiones-en-la-habana-el-nuevo-acuerdo-sigue-adelante", "http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2016/11/07/government-and-farc-claim-progress-in-talks-on-new-peace-deal/", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/colombia-government-eln-rebels-launch-peace-talks-october-003708953.html"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-11-08 | 1.0 | [["2016-11-08", 0.85], ["2016-11-08", 0.8], ["2016-11-08", 0.85], ["2016-11-08", 0.8], ["2016-11-08", 0.375], ["2016-11-08", 0.15], ["2016-11-08", 0.18], ["2016-11-08", 0.25], ["2016-11-08", 0.275], ["2016-11-08", 0.215], ["2016-11-08", 0.2], ["2016-11-08", 0.15], ["2016-11-09", 0.15], ["2016-11-09", 0.3], ["2016-11-09", 0.1], ["2016-11-09", 0.025], ["2016-11-09", 0.05], ["2016-11-09", 0.05], ["2016-11-09", 0.08], ["2016-11-09", 0.08], ["2016-11-09", 0.265], ["2016-11-09", 0.265], ["2016-11-09", 0.39], ["2016-11-09", 0.735], ["2016-11-10", 0.7], ["2016-11-10", 0.7], ["2016-11-10", 0.7], ["2016-11-10", 0.6], ["2016-11-10", 0.6], ["2016-11-10", 0.6], ["2016-11-10", 0.6], ["2016-11-10", 0.5], ["2016-11-10", 0.4], ["2016-11-10", 0.4], ["2016-11-10", 0.325], ["2016-11-10", 0.325], ["2016-11-10", 0.375], ["2016-11-10", 0.3], ["2016-11-11", 0.35], ["2016-11-11", 0.35], ["2016-11-11", 0.4], ["2016-11-11", 0.4], ["2016-11-11", 0.4], ["2016-11-11", 0.4], ["2016-11-11", 0.4], ["2016-11-11", 0.4], ["2016-11-11", 0.4], ["2016-11-11", 0.4], ["2016-11-11", 0.4], ["2016-11-11", 0.35], ["2016-11-11", 0.375], ["2016-11-11", 0.4], ["2016-11-11", 0.4], ["2016-11-11", 0.4], ["2016-11-11", 0.4], ["2016-11-11", 0.4], ["2016-11-12", 0.4], ["2016-11-12", 0.4], ["2016-11-12", 0.375], ["2016-11-12", 0.375], ["2016-11-12", 0.375], ["2016-11-12", 0.375], ["2016-11-12", 0.45], ["2016-11-12", 0.45], ["2016-11-12", 0.45], ["2016-11-12", 0.505], ["2016-11-12", 0.495], ["2016-11-13", 0.49], ["2016-11-13", 0.5], ["2016-11-13", 0.5], ["2016-11-13", 0.5], ["2016-11-13", 0.5], ["2016-11-13", 0.5], ["2016-11-13", 0.5], ["2016-11-13", 0.55], ["2016-11-13", 0.55], ["2016-11-13", 0.6], ["2016-11-13", 0.575], ["2016-11-13", 0.735], ["2016-11-13", 0.86], ["2016-11-13", 0.885], ["2016-11-13", 0.905], ["2016-11-13", 0.905], ["2016-11-13", 0.9], ["2016-11-13", 0.9], ["2016-11-13", 0.9]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/345 | True |
2017-04-19 | Before 1 July 2017, will a date be set for early general elections in the United Kingdom? | binary | General elections are not due again in the UK until 2020, but the recent court ruling requiring parliamentary approval for Brexit has prompted some calls for a snap election (<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/1a00ab3a-a270-11e6-82c3-4351ce86813f" target="_blank">Financial Times</a>, <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/03/high-court-to-rule-on-brexit-legal-battle-and-theresa-mays-decis/" target="_blank">The Telegraph</a>, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-37857785" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="http://www.theworldin.com/article/12586/wait-fall" target="_blank">The World in 2017</a>), and British law allows for out-of-cycle elections under certain conditions (<a href="http://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/general/" target="_blank">www.parliament.uk</a>).
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<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/266" target="_blank">whether local elections will be held in the city of Donetsk before 1 January 2017</a>, or on <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/268" target="_blank">which party's candidate will win the next presidential election in France?</a></sub>
<hr>
This question was closed as "yes" with an end date of 19 April 2017 (<a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39643804"target="_blank">BBC</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | 2017-04-20 | gjopen | ["https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/09/world/europe/britain-theresa-may-brexit-european-union.html?ribbon-ad-idx=5&rref=world/europe", "http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39629603", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39643804", "https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/lib-dems-would-surge-in-snap-election-tories-told-h695qhnv5", "https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-18/theresa-may-seeks-snap-u-k-elections-on-june-8", "http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/04/18/524480871/u-k-prime-minister-calls-for-early-election", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/21/eu-to-hold-first-brexit-summit-a-month-after-article-50-notice", "http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-1987-1992", "http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2005-2010", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/443918", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/18/theresa-may-uk-general-election-8-june", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/408557", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/355878", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/01/labour-puts-aside-4-million-war-chest-fight-snap-election-amid/", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/463-before-1-january-2018-will-the-united-kingdom-and-the-european-union-reach-an-agreement-on-payment-of-the-uk-s-outstanding-liabilities-to-the-eu", "http://europe.newsweek.com/uk-snap-election-date-theresa-may-call-early-election-fix-term-parliaments-act-570808?utm_source=email&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=newsletter&utm_content=read_more&spMailingID=1507589&spUserID=MTI0NzM2MjM0NzYS1&spJobID=750591156&spReportId=NzUwNTkxMTU2S0", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-politics-election-idUSKBN16R0UY?il=0", "http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/britains-prime-minister-seek-early-election-june-8", "http://qz.com/813206/article-50-legal-challenge-everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-court-case-that-could-stop-brexit-from-happening/", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/18/breaking-theresa-may-make-statement-downing-street-1115am1/", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/gordon-brown/9589561/Gordon-Brown-and-the-2007-election-why-it-never-happened.html", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/407420", "https://www.ft.com/content/c627655c-bfae-3870-aead-a84a99d42208", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-election-idUSKBN17L0LU", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/400771"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-11-22 | 1.0 | [["2016-11-22", 0.15], ["2016-11-22", 0.125], ["2016-11-22", 0.2], ["2016-11-22", 0.275], ["2016-11-22", 0.365], ["2016-11-22", 0.225], ["2016-11-22", 0.25], ["2016-11-22", 0.2], ["2016-11-22", 0.2], ["2016-11-23", 0.285], ["2016-11-23", 0.225], ["2016-11-23", 0.25], ["2016-11-23", 0.235], ["2016-11-23", 0.22], ["2016-11-23", 0.16], ["2016-11-23", 0.17], ["2016-11-23", 0.17], ["2016-11-23", 0.17], ["2016-11-23", 0.17], ["2016-11-23", 0.19], ["2016-11-23", 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2016-02-06 | Will North Korea launch a land based missile with the capacity to reach Alaska, Hawaii, or the continental United States before 1 January 2017? | binary | A launch for military or testing purposes would count, i.e., www.nytimes.com/2012/12/24/world/asia/north-korean-rocket-had-military-purpose-seoul-says.html . The success of the launch, and the actual distance traveled, are irrelevant. | 2016-02-08 | gjopen | ["http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/07/world/asia/north-korea-moves-up-rocket-launching-plan.html?smid=pl-share", "http://www.levantinegroup.com/", "http://allthingsnuclear.org/dwright/north-korea-is-launching-a-rocket-soon-what-do-we-know-about-it", "http://www.northkoreatech.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Sat-Track-Screenshot-2016-02-07-095731-777x437.jpg", "http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/07/asia/north-korea-rocket-launch-window/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-submarines-india-australia-idUSKCN10Z04G", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-satellite-idUSKCN0VG00H", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-submarines-india-minister-idUSKCN10Z0CC?il=0", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/south-korea-and-u-s-begin-formal-talks-on-missile-shield-1454831176IC", "https://www.northkoreatech.org/2016/02/08/heres-what-we-know-about-kwangmyongsong-4-so-far/", "http://www.spaceflightinsider.com/missions/defense/north-korea-launches-long-range-rocket-kwangmyongsong-4-satellite/#wDhKIgWmPhRxzVJF.99", "http://soufangroup.com/", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-35515207", "http://edition.cnn.com/2016/02/06/asia/north-korea-rocket-launch-window/", "https://twitter.com/Dest_Pyongyang/status/696148328027856896/photo/1", "http://nyti.ms/1nUeqCo", "http://www.spaceflightinsider.com/missions/defense/north-korea-launches-long-range-rocket-kwangmyongsong-4-satellite/", "https://www.stratfor.com/", "http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/legacy/assets/documents/nwgs/Wright-Analysis-of-NK-launcher-3-18-09.pdf", "https://www.sofx.com/welcome-to-sofx/", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/south-korea-and-u-s-begin-formal-talks-on-missile-shield-1454831176", "http://www.wired.com/2012/04/noko-lying-launch/", "http://satobs.org/seesat_ref/misc/N.Korea_2012_launch.png", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unha", "http://sofrep.com/"] | Not applicable/available for 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2018-06-30 | Will any disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2018? | binary | The Iranian nuclear deal established a Joint Commission to adjudicate disputes between the IAEA and Iran over access to undeclared nuclear facilities (<a href="http://www.iranwatch.org/our-publications/nuclear-iran-weekly/how-will-inspections-work-iran-under-nuclear-deal" target="_blank">Iran Watch</a>).
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No disputes over IAEA access to Iranian were referred to the Joint Commission. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 July 2018.
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| 2018-07-02 | gjopen | ["http://iranprimer.usip.org/resource/iran-and-iaea", "http://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2017/sep/11/report-iran%E2%80%99s-military-sites-and-nuclear-deal", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/29/iran-foreign-minister-zarif-europe-trump-nuclear", "http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/01/russia-giving-cover-to-iran-could-doom-nuclear-deal-as-trump-considers-whether-to-certify.html", "http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2017/09/13/549217764/should-nuclear-inspectors-be-demanding-access-to-irans-military-sites", "http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21735070-unfortunately-they-do-not-think-better-one-available-donald-trump-gives-his-european?frsc=dg%7Ce", "https://www.perdue.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/10.27.17%20IAEA%20letter%20Haley.pdf", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-iaea/iaea-chief-calls-for-clarity-on-disputed-section-of-iran-nuclear-deal-idUSKCN1C12AN", "https://www.iaea.org/press", "http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-wp-iran-nuclear-comment-44c41aba-0b55-11e8-8890-372e2047c935-20180206-story.html", "https://www.google.com.au/search?q=IAEA+access+Iran+Joint+Commission&safe=off&client=ubuntu&hs=NFh&channel=fs&dcr=0&source=lnt&tbs=qdr:w&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiPqNroj_zYAhWHk5QKHQb-D38QpwUIIQ&biw=1853&bih=1071", "https://www.google.ch/amp/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1CZ0YZort"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-09-12 | 0.0 | [["2017-09-12", 0.6], ["2017-09-12", 0.19], ["2017-09-12", 0.01], ["2017-09-12", 0.02], ["2017-09-13", 0.015], ["2017-09-13", 0.01], ["2017-09-13", 0.015], ["2017-09-14", 0.02], ["2017-09-14", 0.085], ["2017-09-14", 0.1], ["2017-09-14", 0.035], ["2017-09-15", 0.0], ["2017-09-15", 0.02], ["2017-09-15", 0.02], ["2017-09-16", 0.02], ["2017-09-16", 0.02], ["2017-09-17", 0.01], ["2017-09-17", 0.02], ["2017-09-18", 0.02], ["2017-09-18", 0.02], ["2017-09-19", 0.02], ["2017-09-19", 0.02], ["2017-09-19", 0.035], ["2017-09-20", 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["2018-03-17", 0.05], ["2018-03-18", 0.05], ["2018-03-18", 0.05], ["2018-03-18", 0.05], ["2018-03-19", 0.05], ["2018-03-20", 0.05], ["2018-03-22", 0.05], ["2018-03-23", 0.05], ["2018-03-23", 0.05], ["2018-03-23", 0.05], ["2018-03-24", 0.05], ["2018-03-25", 0.05], ["2018-03-25", 0.05], ["2018-03-26", 0.05], ["2018-03-28", 0.05], ["2018-03-28", 0.05], ["2018-03-28", 0.05], ["2018-03-29", 0.05], ["2018-03-30", 0.05], ["2018-03-30", 0.05], ["2018-03-31", 0.05], ["2018-04-01", 0.05], ["2018-04-01", 0.05], ["2018-04-01", 0.05], ["2018-04-03", 0.05], ["2018-04-03", 0.05], ["2018-04-04", 0.05], ["2018-04-04", 0.05], ["2018-04-05", 0.05], ["2018-04-06", 0.05], ["2018-04-06", 0.05], ["2018-04-07", 0.05], ["2018-04-07", 0.05], ["2018-04-08", 0.05], ["2018-04-08", 0.05], ["2018-04-09", 0.05], ["2018-04-10", 0.05], ["2018-04-11", 0.05], ["2018-04-11", 0.05], ["2018-04-12", 0.05], ["2018-04-13", 0.05], ["2018-04-14", 0.05], ["2018-04-14", 0.05], ["2018-04-15", 0.05], ["2018-04-16", 0.05], ["2018-04-16", 0.05], ["2018-04-18", 0.05], ["2018-04-18", 0.05], ["2018-04-19", 0.05], ["2018-04-19", 0.05], ["2018-04-21", 0.05], ["2018-04-21", 0.05], ["2018-04-22", 0.05], ["2018-04-22", 0.05], ["2018-04-23", 0.05], ["2018-04-24", 0.05], ["2018-04-24", 0.05], ["2018-04-24", 0.05], ["2018-04-24", 0.05], ["2018-04-25", 0.05], ["2018-04-26", 0.05], ["2018-04-26", 0.05], ["2018-04-27", 0.05], ["2018-04-29", 0.05], ["2018-04-30", 0.05], ["2018-04-30", 0.05], ["2018-05-01", 0.05], ["2018-05-01", 0.05], ["2018-05-02", 0.05], ["2018-05-03", 0.05], ["2018-05-04", 0.05], ["2018-05-04", 0.05], ["2018-05-05", 0.05], ["2018-05-06", 0.05], ["2018-05-07", 0.05], ["2018-05-08", 0.05], ["2018-05-09", 0.045], ["2018-05-10", 0.045], ["2018-05-10", 0.045], ["2018-05-12", 0.04], ["2018-05-12", 0.04], ["2018-05-13", 0.04], ["2018-05-14", 0.04], ["2018-05-14", 0.04], ["2018-05-15", 0.04], ["2018-05-17", 0.04], ["2018-05-17", 0.035], ["2018-05-19", 0.035], ["2018-05-19", 0.035], ["2018-05-20", 0.035], ["2018-05-21", 0.035], ["2018-05-22", 0.03], ["2018-05-24", 0.03], ["2018-05-25", 0.03], ["2018-05-26", 0.03], ["2018-05-26", 0.03], ["2018-05-27", 0.03], ["2018-05-28", 0.03], ["2018-05-28", 0.03], ["2018-05-29", 0.03], ["2018-05-30", 0.03], ["2018-05-30", 0.03], ["2018-06-01", 0.03], ["2018-06-01", 0.03], ["2018-06-02", 0.03], ["2018-06-03", 0.03], ["2018-06-03", 0.03], ["2018-06-04", 0.03], ["2018-06-05", 0.03], ["2018-06-05", 0.03], ["2018-06-06", 0.03], ["2018-06-07", 0.025], ["2018-06-08", 0.025], ["2018-06-09", 0.02], ["2018-06-09", 0.02], ["2018-06-11", 0.02], ["2018-06-12", 0.02], ["2018-06-13", 0.02], ["2018-06-14", 0.02], ["2018-06-15", 0.02], ["2018-06-15", 0.02], ["2018-06-16", 0.02], ["2018-06-17", 0.02], ["2018-06-18", 0.02], ["2018-06-20", 0.02], ["2018-06-21", 0.02], ["2018-06-22", 0.02], ["2018-06-23", 0.02], ["2018-06-23", 0.02], ["2018-06-24", 0.02], ["2018-06-25", 0.02], ["2018-06-26", 0.02], ["2018-06-27", 0.02], ["2018-06-27", 0.01], ["2018-06-27", 0.01], ["2018-06-28", 0.01], ["2018-06-29", 0.01], ["2018-06-29", 0.01], ["2018-06-29", 0.01], ["2018-06-29", 0.01], ["2018-06-30", 0.01]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/597 | True |
2019-03-31 | Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Pakistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Pakistan? | binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Pakistan from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://earlywarningproject.ushmm.org"target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
| 2020-03-18 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2018-12-28 | 0.0 | [["2018-12-28", 0.05], ["2018-12-28", 0.075], ["2018-12-29", 0.075], ["2018-12-29", 0.05], ["2018-12-31", 0.05], ["2018-12-31", 0.05], ["2019-01-01", 0.04], ["2019-01-02", 0.02], ["2019-01-02", 0.015], ["2019-01-02", 0.0], ["2019-01-03", 0.0], ["2019-01-03", 0.0], ["2019-01-04", 0.0], ["2019-01-04", 0.0], ["2019-01-04", 0.0], ["2019-01-04", 0.0], ["2019-01-04", 0.0], ["2019-01-06", 0.0], ["2019-01-06", 0.0], ["2019-01-06", 0.01], ["2019-01-06", 0.02], ["2019-01-06", 0.03], ["2019-01-06", 0.045], ["2019-01-06", 0.05], ["2019-01-06", 0.05], ["2019-01-06", 0.05], ["2019-01-07", 0.05], ["2019-01-07", 0.075], ["2019-01-07", 0.075], ["2019-01-07", 0.075], ["2019-01-07", 0.075], ["2019-01-09", 0.075], ["2019-01-09", 0.05], ["2019-01-09", 0.05], ["2019-01-12", 0.04], ["2019-01-13", 0.03], ["2019-01-13", 0.03], ["2019-01-13", 0.03], ["2019-01-15", 0.035], ["2019-01-16", 0.035], ["2019-01-18", 0.035], ["2019-01-20", 0.035], ["2019-01-22", 0.035], ["2019-01-24", 0.035], ["2019-01-26", 0.04], ["2019-01-26", 0.04], ["2019-01-30", 0.04], ["2019-01-31", 0.04], ["2019-02-01", 0.035], ["2019-02-01", 0.035], ["2019-02-01", 0.025], ["2019-02-03", 0.025], ["2019-02-05", 0.025], ["2019-02-08", 0.025], ["2019-02-08", 0.025], ["2019-02-11", 0.025], ["2019-02-12", 0.025], ["2019-02-16", 0.02], ["2019-02-16", 0.02], ["2019-02-20", 0.02], ["2019-02-23", 0.03], ["2019-02-24", 0.05], ["2019-02-26", 0.05], ["2019-02-27", 0.065], ["2019-02-28", 0.065], ["2019-02-28", 0.065], ["2019-03-01", 0.065], ["2019-03-01", 0.065], ["2019-03-01", 0.04], ["2019-03-04", 0.04], ["2019-03-05", 0.03], ["2019-03-07", 0.03], ["2019-03-07", 0.03], ["2019-03-07", 0.03], ["2019-03-07", 0.03], ["2019-03-07", 0.03], ["2019-03-07", 0.03], ["2019-03-09", 0.03], ["2019-03-09", 0.03], ["2019-03-11", 0.03], ["2019-03-11", 0.035], ["2019-03-11", 0.035], ["2019-03-12", 0.035], ["2019-03-12", 0.035], ["2019-03-13", 0.035], ["2019-03-14", 0.035], ["2019-03-18", 0.03], ["2019-03-19", 0.03], ["2019-03-22", 0.03], ["2019-03-23", 0.03], ["2019-03-25", 0.03], ["2019-03-26", 0.03], ["2019-03-27", 0.03], ["2019-03-29", 0.025], ["2019-03-29", 0.025], ["2019-03-30", 0.025], ["2019-03-31", 0.025]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1076 | True |
2016-09-30 | Will more than 6,000 new battery electric vehicles be registered in Germany in the third quarter of 2016? | binary | This question was closed on "No," with an end date of 30 September 2016. Kraftfahrt-Bundqesamt, the source for the best-selling-cars report mentioned below, reported 3,321 new battery electric vehicles were registered in the third quarter (<a href="http://www.kba.de/DE/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2016/Fahrzeugzulassungen/pm27_2016_n_09_16_pm_komplett.html?nn=716864" target="_blank">Kraftfahrt-Bundqesamt</a>).
Germany is launching a 1 billion euro rebate scheme to incentivize the sale of electric vehicles (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-electric-germany-idUSKCN0XO0XI" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). Question will be resolved using the totals from the "Electric" columns for the three months in Q3, July, August, and September at <a href="http://www.best-selling-cars.com/electric/2016-germany-electric-hybrid-car-sales/" target="_blank">best-selling-cars.com</a>. Registrations of hybrid electric vehicles and plug-in-vehicles will not count. Third quarter registrations in 2015 were 2,722, and include both German (e.g. BMW i3; VW e-Golf) and non-German (e.g. Nissan Leaf; Tesla Model X) models. Question will be suspended on 30 September 2016 and resolved when September's data is released. The new subsidy program, which gives purchasers a discount of 3000-4000 euros for select vehicles, is scheduled to start as early as May 2016. The German government is perceived as wanting to support the German auto companies, which are very important to the German economy, and to draw attention away from the diesel engine scandal of Volkswagen by emphasizing the country’s commitment to “green” technologies. The tax is controversial with some economists, who oppose subsidizing private purchases, and with environmentalists, who see negative impact from a boost in electricity consumption at a time when Germany’s ban on nuclear power plants has made its electricity generation more coal-based. For more information see: <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/28/germany-subsidy-boost-electric-car-sales" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>, <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-27/germany-planning-1-4-billion-in-incentives-for-electric-cars" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwinton/2016/04/27/germany-introduces-electric-car-subsidy-but-excludes-tesla/#4b7255183e99" target="_blank">Forbes</a>, <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/germany-to-subsidize-electric-autos-1461768367" target="_blank">The Wall Street Journal</a>.
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<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/186" target="_blank">Will at least 400 employers participate as partners in the US Department of Energy’s Workplace Charging Challenge in 2016?</a> | 2016-10-14 | gjopen | ["http://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-electric-germany-idUSKCN10F276", "http://www.tradingeconomics.com/germany/car-registrations", "http://www.bafa.de/bafa/de/presse/pressemitteilungen/2016/19_emob.html", "http://www.kba.de/DE/Statistik/Fahrzeuge/Neuzulassungen/MonatlicheNeuzulassungen/2016/201607GV1monatlich/201607_nzbarometer/201607_n_barometer.html?nn=1436722", "http://www.teletrader.com/amt-bisher-266-antrage-auf-kaufpramie-fur-elektroautos-eingegangen/news/details/35083464", "http://www.kba.de/DE/Statistik/Fahrzeuge/Neuzulassungen/MonatlicheNeuzulassungen/monatl_neuzulassungen_node.html", "http://www.automobilwoche.de/article/20160714/AGENTURMELDUNGEN/307149907/kaufpramie-fur-elektroautos-vor-allem-privatleute-wollen-kaufpramie-fur-elektroautos", "http://www.kba.de/DE/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2016/Fahrzeugzulassungen/pm21_2016_n_06_16_pm_komplett.html;jsessionid=3ACBA18D62CE124EC9781D69B342A780.live11291?nn=716864", "http://www.automobilwoche.de/article/20160704/AGENTURMELDUNGEN/307049943/elektroauto-kaufpramie-der-gro%C3%9Fe-ansturm-bleibt-aus", "http://www.kba.de/DE/Statistik/Fahrzeuge/Neuzulassungen/MonatlicheNeuzulassungen/2016/201607GV1monatlich/201607_nzbarometer/201607_n_barometer.html?nn=653844", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/312891", "http://evobsession.com/bmw-i3-sales-rose-germany-following-electric-vehicle-subsidy-implementation/", "http://www.kba.de/DE/Statistik/Fahrzeuge/Neuzulassungen/MonatlicheNeuzulassungen/2016/201606GV1monatlich/201606_nzbarometer/201606_n_barometer.html;jsessionid=E329FC27316228259A5AFE74A03F2EB1.live21302?nn=653844", "http://www.autoblog.com/2014/04/23/bmw-ups-i3-production-meeting-demand/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-bmw-i-idUSKCN0ZQ0O7?il=0", "http://www.merkur.de/lokales/wolfratshausen/wolfratshausen-ort29708/e-autos-kaum-interesse-landkreis-6787756.html", "http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2016-07/37851260-praemie-fuer-e-autos-reicht-laut-bafa-chef-bis-2019-003.htm", "http://www.kba.de/DE/Statistik/Fahrzeuge/Neuzulassungen/MonatlicheNeuzulassungen/2016/201607GV1monatlich/201607_nzbarometer/201607_n_barometer.html;jsessionid=E329FC27316228259A5AFE74A03F2EB1.live21302?nn=653844", "http://www.bafa.de/bafa/de/wirtschaftsfoerderung/elektromobilitaet/publikationen/emob_zwischenbilanz.pdf", "http://evobsession.com/electric-car-sales-germany-july-2016/", "http://www.kba.de/DE/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2016/Fahrzeugzulassungen/pm25_2016_n_08_16_pm_komplett.html?nn=716864", "http://zoepionierin.de/renault-zoe-ein-fazit/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/298091", "http://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article157534732/Autohersteller-sacken-Elektro-Praemie-fuer-sich-ein.html", 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2018-01-01 | Before 1 January 2018, will Yemen's Houthi rebels sign a peace agreement that includes provisions about the establishment or recognition of a single, national government? | binary | The war that began in Yemen in 2014 has killed thousands (<a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/08/10000-killed-yemen-conflict-160830173324902.html" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>, <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/gulf-and-arabian-peninsula/yemen/yemen-peace-possible" target="_blank">International Crisis Group</a>), and peace talks that began in early 2016 have not yet led to a political settlement (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security-idUSKCN1241RN" target="_blank">Reuters 10/4/16</a>, <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/08/yemen-peace-talks-collapse-fighting-intensifies-160807042106210.html" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security-sammad-exclusive-idUSKCN11420N" target="_blank">Reuters 8/29/16</a>). Peace agreements that include provisions creating a new government, establishing a transitional political process to form a new government, or recognizing an existing government would count.
This question was updated on 24 October 2016 to clarify that the question is asking about the date of the signing of the agreement, not the establishment or recognition of a single, national government.
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Yemen's Houthi rebels did not sign a peace agreement. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
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<hr>
| 2018-01-02 | gjopen | ["https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/07/saudi-arabia-accuses-iran-of-supplying-missile-to-houthi-rebels-in-yemen", "http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/yemen-rebels-reject-envoy-mediator-conflict-47850994", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-saudi-yemen-idUSKBN17M2ZK", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-iran-houthis-idUSKBN16S22R", "https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/04/20/yemen-houthi-saleh-forces-using-landmines", "https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/gulf-and-arabian-peninsula/yemen/yemen-peace-possible", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security-un-idUSKBN16S287", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security-court-idUSKBN16W0UF", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-yemen-idUSKBN1691PV", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security-talks-idUSKBN18Q26C", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security-idUSKCN1B60OG?il=0", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/14/world/middleeast/saudi-arabia-mohammed-bin-salman.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-cholera-who-idUSKBN1A61GY", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-conflict-un/saudi-arabia-should-fund-all-humanitarian-aid-to-yemen-wfp-idUSKCN1BF22R", "http://in.reuters.com/article/yemen-security-court-idINKBN16X02Z?il=0", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security-hodeidah-idUSKBN16I072", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-gulf-qatar-idUSKBN18O0HA", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-mattis-iran-idUSKBN17L230", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-41446342", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security-un-idUSKBN18Q24V", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security-contest-idUSKBN1872RO", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security-usa-emirates-idUSKBN1AJ2UW", "http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/gulf/2017/05/08/Arab-coalition-launches-air-strikes-on-Houthi-sites-in-Yemen-s-Taiz.html", "http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/03/15/yemen-famine-humanitarian-relief-conflict-food-insecurity-casualties-of-conflict-saudi-led-intervention/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security-refugees-coalition-idUSKBN16Q0JW"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-10-11 | 0.0 | [["2016-10-11", 0.09], ["2016-10-12", 0.13], ["2016-10-12", 0.1], ["2016-10-12", 0.035], ["2016-10-12", 0.09], ["2016-10-13", 0.07], ["2016-10-14", 0.05], ["2016-10-14", 0.1], ["2016-10-15", 0.05], ["2016-10-16", 0.05], ["2016-10-16", 0.05], ["2016-10-16", 0.045], ["2016-10-17", 0.045], ["2016-10-17", 0.05], ["2016-10-18", 0.05], ["2016-10-19", 0.05], ["2016-10-19", 0.05], ["2016-10-19", 0.1], ["2016-10-21", 0.1], ["2016-10-22", 0.1], ["2016-10-23", 0.1], ["2016-10-24", 0.1], ["2016-10-24", 0.1], ["2016-10-26", 0.1], ["2016-10-26", 0.1], ["2016-10-27", 0.1], ["2016-10-28", 0.1], ["2016-10-29", 0.1], ["2016-10-29", 0.095], ["2016-10-30", 0.095], ["2016-10-31", 0.07], ["2016-10-31", 0.06], 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["2017-11-19", 0.0], ["2017-11-20", 0.0], ["2017-11-21", 0.0], ["2017-11-23", 0.0], ["2017-11-24", 0.0], ["2017-11-26", 0.0], ["2017-11-27", 0.0], ["2017-11-28", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-06", 0.0], ["2017-12-08", 0.0], ["2017-12-08", 0.0], ["2017-12-10", 0.0], ["2017-12-10", 0.0], ["2017-12-12", 0.0], ["2017-12-13", 0.0], ["2017-12-16", 0.0], ["2017-12-17", 0.0], ["2017-12-18", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-23", 0.0], ["2017-12-25", 0.0], ["2017-12-26", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2018-01-01", 0.0], ["2018-01-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/298 | True |
2017-11-21 | Before 21 November 2017, will Nnamdi Kanu, leader of Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), be found? | binary | Nnamdi Kanu is the leader of the IPOB separatist movement in Nigeria, but <a href = "http://www.dw.com/en/nigeria-pro-biafra-leader-nnamdi-kanu-missing-as-trial-resumes/a-40999227"target="_blank">has not been seen</a> in public since soldiers allegedly invaded his home in mid-September. <a href ="http://www.dw.com/en/nigeria-pro-biafra-leader-nnamdi-kanu-missing-as-trial-resumes/a-40999227"target="_blank">A trial against him</a> has been adjourned to allow more time to ascertain his <a href = "http://www.newsweek.com/war-nigeria-biafra-nnamdi-kanu-686961"target="_blank">whereabouts</a>. <a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-15/eastern-nigeria-tensions-rise-over-demands-for-independent-state"target="_blank">Secessionist</a> sentiment <a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/08/world/africa/nigeria-cameroon-secession-separatists.html"target="_blank">is on the rise</a> in the southeastern part of the country. Kanu's condition when found will not affect the resolution of this question.
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<hr>
This question closed as "b) No," with an end date of 21 November 2017.
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| 2017-11-29 | gjopen | ["https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/calls-biafran-independence-return-south-east-nigeria", "https://www.premiumtimesng.com/regional/ssouth-east/249751-biafra-dismiss-suit-make-produce-nnamdi-kanu-buratai-tells-court.html"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-11-08 | 0.0 | [["2017-11-08", 0.15], ["2017-11-08", 0.15], ["2017-11-08", 0.275], ["2017-11-08", 0.225], ["2017-11-08", 0.1], ["2017-11-08", 0.05], ["2017-11-08", 0.0], ["2017-11-08", 0.05], ["2017-11-08", 0.05], ["2017-11-08", 0.06], ["2017-11-08", 0.05], ["2017-11-09", 0.05], ["2017-11-09", 0.05], ["2017-11-09", 0.05], ["2017-11-09", 0.05], ["2017-11-09", 0.05], ["2017-11-09", 0.05], ["2017-11-09", 0.05], ["2017-11-09", 0.05], ["2017-11-09", 0.05], ["2017-11-09", 0.03], ["2017-11-09", 0.01], ["2017-11-09", 0.01], ["2017-11-09", 0.01], ["2017-11-09", 0.01], ["2017-11-09", 0.01], ["2017-11-09", 0.01], ["2017-11-10", 0.01], ["2017-11-10", 0.01], ["2017-11-10", 0.01], ["2017-11-10", 0.01], ["2017-11-10", 0.0], ["2017-11-10", 0.005], ["2017-11-10", 0.01], ["2017-11-10", 0.01], ["2017-11-10", 0.01], ["2017-11-10", 0.005], ["2017-11-10", 0.0], ["2017-11-10", 0.0], ["2017-11-10", 0.0], ["2017-11-10", 0.0], ["2017-11-10", 0.0], ["2017-11-10", 0.0], ["2017-11-10", 0.0], ["2017-11-10", 0.0], ["2017-11-10", 0.0], ["2017-11-11", 0.0], ["2017-11-11", 0.0], ["2017-11-11", 0.0], ["2017-11-11", 0.0], ["2017-11-11", 0.0], ["2017-11-11", 0.0], ["2017-11-11", 0.0], ["2017-11-11", 0.0], ["2017-11-11", 0.0], ["2017-11-11", 0.0], ["2017-11-12", 0.0], ["2017-11-12", 0.0], ["2017-11-12", 0.0], ["2017-11-12", 0.0], ["2017-11-12", 0.0], ["2017-11-12", 0.0], ["2017-11-12", 0.0], ["2017-11-12", 0.0], ["2017-11-12", 0.0], ["2017-11-12", 0.0], ["2017-11-12", 0.0], ["2017-11-12", 0.0], ["2017-11-12", 0.0], ["2017-11-12", 0.0], ["2017-11-13", 0.0], ["2017-11-13", 0.0], ["2017-11-13", 0.0], ["2017-11-13", 0.0], ["2017-11-13", 0.0], ["2017-11-13", 0.0], ["2017-11-13", 0.0], ["2017-11-14", 0.0], ["2017-11-14", 0.0], ["2017-11-14", 0.01], ["2017-11-14", 0.015], ["2017-11-14", 0.02], ["2017-11-14", 0.015], ["2017-11-14", 0.015], ["2017-11-14", 0.005], ["2017-11-14", 0.005], ["2017-11-14", 0.01], ["2017-11-15", 0.01], ["2017-11-15", 0.0], ["2017-11-15", 0.0], ["2017-11-15", 0.005], ["2017-11-15", 0.01], ["2017-11-15", 0.01], ["2017-11-15", 0.01], ["2017-11-15", 0.01], ["2017-11-15", 0.01], ["2017-11-15", 0.01], ["2017-11-16", 0.01], ["2017-11-16", 0.01], ["2017-11-16", 0.01], ["2017-11-16", 0.01], ["2017-11-16", 0.01], ["2017-11-16", 0.01], ["2017-11-16", 0.01], ["2017-11-17", 0.01], ["2017-11-17", 0.01], ["2017-11-17", 0.01], ["2017-11-17", 0.01], ["2017-11-17", 0.01], ["2017-11-17", 0.01], ["2017-11-17", 0.01], ["2017-11-17", 0.01], ["2017-11-18", 0.01], ["2017-11-18", 0.01], ["2017-11-18", 0.01], ["2017-11-18", 0.01], ["2017-11-18", 0.01], ["2017-11-18", 0.01], ["2017-11-18", 0.01], ["2017-11-18", 0.01], ["2017-11-18", 0.01], ["2017-11-18", 0.01], ["2017-11-19", 0.01], ["2017-11-19", 0.01], ["2017-11-19", 0.01], ["2017-11-19", 0.01], ["2017-11-19", 0.01], ["2017-11-19", 0.01], ["2017-11-20", 0.01], ["2017-11-20", 0.01], ["2017-11-20", 0.01], ["2017-11-20", 0.01], ["2017-11-20", 0.01], ["2017-11-20", 0.01], ["2017-11-20", 0.01], ["2017-11-20", 0.0], ["2017-11-20", 0.0], ["2017-11-20", 0.0], ["2017-11-20", 0.0], ["2017-11-20", 0.0], ["2017-11-20", 0.0], ["2017-11-20", 0.0], ["2017-11-20", 0.0], ["2017-11-20", 0.0], ["2017-11-21", 0.0], ["2017-11-21", 0.0], ["2017-11-21", 0.0], ["2017-11-21", 0.0], ["2017-11-21", 0.0], ["2017-11-21", 0.0], ["2017-11-21", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/686 | True |
2017-07-01 | Will Leopoldo Lopez be released from prison before 1 July 2017? | binary | Leopoldo Lopez, a member of Venezuela's opposition, has been imprisoned since 2014 (<a href= "http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/07/27/the-making-of-leopoldo-lopez-democratic-venezuela-opposition/"target = "_blank">Foreign Policy</a>, <a href = "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/13/venezuelan-court-upholds-14-year-jail-term-given-to-opposition-l/"target = "_blank">UK Telegraph</a>). The release of Lopez and other political prisoners is one of the issues being discussed in the Vatican-sponsored negotiations between President Maduro and the opposition (<a href = "http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21709580-vatican-sponsored-talks-are-more-promising-they-look-what-be-done-venezuela"target = "_blank">The Economist</a>, <a href = "http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2017/01/11/Venezuelan-opposition-demands-Maduro-comply-with-previous-agreements/6941484155676/"target = "_blank">United Press International</a>, <a href = "http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2429411&CategoryId=10717"target = "_blank">Latin America Herald Tribune</a>).
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<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/382"target = "_blank">Geert Wilders will become prime minister of the Netherlands after the March 2017 elections?</a> or on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/357"target = "_blank">a date will be set for early general elections in the United Kingdom before 1 July 2017</a>.</sub>
<hr>
There is no evidence that Leopoldo Lopez was released from prison. This question closed as "b) No" with and end date of 30 June 2017.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | 2017-07-06 | gjopen | ["https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/24/opinion/how-venezuela-can-avoid-suspension-from-the-oas.html", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-snap-stocks-idUSKBN19V2LT", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-venezuela-sanctions-idUSKBN15T1KN", "http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/319798-trump-calls-for-venezuela-to-release-political-prisoner-leopoldo", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-idUSKBN19T0IH", "http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-venezuela-politics-party-idUKKBN15717F", "https://twitter.com/juancgutierrezc", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-39000333", "https://www.opendemocracy.net/democraciaabierta/cecile-rossi/venezuela-s-silenced-voices", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-venezuela-idUSKBN15V01F?il=0", "http://www.prensa.com/mundo/sentencia-leopoldo-lopez-documento-completo_LPRFIL20151014_0001.pdf", "http://www.lasamericasnews.com/index.php/es/noticias-es/internacional/9668-maduro-aclara-que-bromeaba-con-canje-y-descarta-indultar-a-leopoldo-lopez", "http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/444834/pope-francis-and-venezuela-throwing-another-tyranny-lifeline", "http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/venezuela-protests-looting-1.4081510", "https://sputniknews.com/politics/201701251049979328-venezuela-wants-normalize-usa-relations/", "http://www.infobae.com/america/venezuela/2017/03/13/pese-a-las-amenazas-del-regimen-de-maduro-el-partido-de-leopoldo-lopez-culmino-su-proceso-de-validacion-ante-el-consejo-electoral/", "http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/article127206789.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leopoldo_L%C3%B3pez", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempto_Controlled_English#Simple_sentences", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-oas-idUSKBN16Y20J"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-01-24 | 0.0 | [["2017-01-24", 0.1], ["2017-01-24", 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2016-07-15 | Will Donald Trump pick one of the former candidates for the Republican nomination as his vice presidential running mate? | binary | This question was closed with the answer "No" on 19 July 2016 with an end date of 15 July 2016. Donald Trump announced that Mike Pence would be his vice presidential running mate on 15 July 2016 (<a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/14/politics/donald-trump-vice-presidential-choice/" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2016/07/15/mike-pence-donald-trump-vice-presidential-pick/mMIREP5yiRQikYxbLxwY0O/story.html" target="_blank">Boston Globe</a>, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/16/us/politics/mike-pence-donald-trump-vice-president.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>). Mike Pence was not a former presidential candidate.
<br/>
A number of Trump's previous rivals have been mentioned as potential picks for his vice presidential running-mate (<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/04/29/5-people-donald-trump-could-pick-to-be-his-vice-president/" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>, <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/vice-presidential-picks-could-hold-clues-strategies-trump-clinton-n562566" target="_blank">NBC News</a>). A list of the past Republican presidential candidates can be found at the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/2016-presidential-candidates.html" target="_blank">NYTimes</a>.
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</a> | 2016-07-19 | gjopen | ["http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/2016-conventions/its-official-trump-announces-mike-pence-vp-pick-n610111", "http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/05/17/melania-trump-defends-donald-hes-not-hitler/", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/01/us/politics/chris-christie-donald-trump.html?_r=0", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/08/us/politics/donald-trump-president.html?_r=0", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/02/us/politics/donald-trump-vice-president.html?smprod=nytcore-ipad&smid=nytcore-ipad-share", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-36800811", "https://www.wbez.org/shows/npr/meet-donald-trumps-potential-vice-presidents-in-100-words/104b654f-e0e0-40ed-b973-e42f676e72f7", "http://www.northjersey.com/news/stile-christie-lends-gentle-hand-to-trump-campaign-1.1621860", "http://nypost.com/2016/07/09/the-military-fired-me-for-calling-our-enemies-radical-jihadis/", "http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/apr/27/donald-trump-carly-fiorinas-not-going-do-trick/", "https://twitter.com/jeremybowers/status/748880748241752064", "http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/04/trump-carly-fiorina-vice-president-222521", "https://twitter.com/brianstelter/status/752955749953921026", "https://twitter.com/allmyalibis/status/748918204538445826", "http://www.indystar.com/news/", "http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/07/trump_insiders_say_christie_vp_vetting_just_for_sh.html", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/275427", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/02/us/politics/donald-trump-republican-convention.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0", "http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/07/11/gov-or-vp-indiana-s-pence-has-friday-ballot-deadline.html", "http://www.tribstar.com/news/indiana_news/pence-i-ll-campaign-for-trump-anywhere-anytime/article_bfc92294-6619-5fa4-9c2d-e28423573e1c.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vice_President_of_the_United_States#Nominating_process", "http://www.bustle.com/articles/159388-can-donald-trumps-vice-president-be-rejected-at-the-convention-the-gop-nominees-hands-may-be", "https://twitter.com/jilldlawrence/status/748942351838638080", "http://time.com/4402919/donald-trump-vice-president-chris-christie-newt-gingrich-mike-pence/", "http://nation.foxnews.com/2016/07/12/newt-gingrich-out-fox-news-contributor-amid-vp-speculation"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-05-20 | 0.0 | [["2016-05-20", 0.25], ["2016-05-20", 0.075], ["2016-05-20", 0.0], ["2016-05-20", 0.55], ["2016-05-20", 0.34], ["2016-05-20", 0.05], ["2016-05-20", 0.05], ["2016-05-20", 0.025], ["2016-05-20", 0.0], ["2016-05-20", 0.0], ["2016-05-20", 0.02], ["2016-05-20", 0.005], ["2016-05-20", 0.04], ["2016-05-20", 0.07], ["2016-05-20", 0.1], ["2016-05-21", 0.2], ["2016-05-21", 0.2], ["2016-05-21", 0.2], ["2016-05-21", 0.15], ["2016-05-21", 0.125], ["2016-05-21", 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["2016-07-14", 0.1], ["2016-07-14", 0.1], ["2016-07-14", 0.1], ["2016-07-14", 0.1], ["2016-07-14", 0.1], ["2016-07-14", 0.1], ["2016-07-14", 0.1], ["2016-07-14", 0.09], ["2016-07-14", 0.08], ["2016-07-14", 0.08], ["2016-07-14", 0.05], ["2016-07-14", 0.05], ["2016-07-14", 0.05], ["2016-07-14", 0.05], ["2016-07-14", 0.05], ["2016-07-14", 0.05], ["2016-07-14", 0.05], ["2016-07-14", 0.05], ["2016-07-14", 0.05], ["2016-07-14", 0.05], ["2016-07-14", 0.05], ["2016-07-14", 0.05], ["2016-07-14", 0.05], ["2016-07-14", 0.05], ["2016-07-14", 0.045], ["2016-07-15", 0.04], ["2016-07-15", 0.03], ["2016-07-15", 0.03], ["2016-07-15", 0.03], ["2016-07-15", 0.02], ["2016-07-15", 0.02], ["2016-07-15", 0.02], ["2016-07-15", 0.02], ["2016-07-15", 0.02], ["2016-07-15", 0.02], ["2016-07-15", 0.02], ["2016-07-15", 0.01], ["2016-07-15", 0.01], ["2016-07-15", 0.01], ["2016-07-15", 0.01], ["2016-07-15", 0.01]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/206 | True |
2019-03-31 | Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe? | binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Zimbabwe from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://earlywarningproject.ushmm.org"target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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| 2020-03-18 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2018-12-28 | 0.0 | [["2018-12-28", 0.01], ["2018-12-28", 0.01], ["2018-12-29", 0.005], ["2018-12-29", 0.01], ["2018-12-31", 0.01], ["2018-12-31", 0.005], ["2018-12-31", 0.005], ["2019-01-02", 0.0], ["2019-01-02", 0.0], ["2019-01-02", 0.0], ["2019-01-03", 0.0], ["2019-01-03", 0.0], ["2019-01-04", 0.0], ["2019-01-04", 0.0], ["2019-01-04", 0.0], ["2019-01-06", 0.0], ["2019-01-06", 0.0], ["2019-01-06", 0.0], ["2019-01-06", 0.0], ["2019-01-06", 0.015], ["2019-01-06", 0.015], ["2019-01-07", 0.01], ["2019-01-07", 0.06], ["2019-01-07", 0.06], ["2019-01-09", 0.02], ["2019-01-09", 0.02], ["2019-01-11", 0.02], ["2019-01-13", 0.02], ["2019-01-13", 0.015], ["2019-01-13", 0.01], ["2019-01-15", 0.015], ["2019-01-15", 0.015], ["2019-01-16", 0.015], ["2019-01-18", 0.01], ["2019-01-20", 0.01], ["2019-01-21", 0.01], ["2019-01-21", 0.01], ["2019-01-22", 0.03], ["2019-01-22", 0.05], ["2019-01-23", 0.05], ["2019-01-23", 0.05], ["2019-01-26", 0.05], ["2019-01-26", 0.05], ["2019-01-29", 0.05], ["2019-01-29", 0.05], ["2019-01-31", 0.05], ["2019-02-01", 0.05], ["2019-02-01", 0.05], ["2019-02-03", 0.05], ["2019-02-05", 0.05], ["2019-02-08", 0.05], ["2019-02-08", 0.05], ["2019-02-12", 0.05], ["2019-02-12", 0.05], ["2019-02-16", 0.05], ["2019-02-20", 0.05], ["2019-02-23", 0.05], ["2019-02-24", 0.05], ["2019-02-26", 0.05], ["2019-02-28", 0.05], ["2019-02-28", 0.05], ["2019-03-01", 0.05], ["2019-03-01", 0.05], ["2019-03-04", 0.05], ["2019-03-05", 0.05], ["2019-03-07", 0.045], ["2019-03-07", 0.05], ["2019-03-09", 0.05], ["2019-03-09", 0.05], ["2019-03-11", 0.05], ["2019-03-11", 0.05], ["2019-03-11", 0.05], ["2019-03-12", 0.05], ["2019-03-12", 0.045], ["2019-03-13", 0.045], ["2019-03-14", 0.045], ["2019-03-19", 0.045], ["2019-03-22", 0.045], ["2019-03-22", 0.04], ["2019-03-25", 0.04], ["2019-03-29", 0.035], ["2019-03-29", 0.035], ["2019-03-30", 0.035], ["2019-03-31", 0.035]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1082 | True |
2017-10-01 | Will China begin land reclamation activity at Scarborough Shoal or in the Macclesfield Bank before 1 October 2017? | binary | In July of 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) ruled on a long-running dispute between China and the Philippines about sovereignty over the strategically-located Scarborough Shoal or the Macclesfield Bank (<a href="https://amti.csis.org/arbitration-ruling-analysis/" target="_blank">Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative</a>, <a href="http://thediplomat.com/2016/06/after-the-south-china-sea-arbitration/" target="_blank">The Diplomat 6/21/16</a>). In the spring, China indicated that land-reclamation activity at Scarborough Shoal could start within the year, regardless of the PCA ruling (<a href="http://thediplomat.com/2016/04/will-china-begin-scarborough-shoal-reclamation-after-hague-verdict-on-south-china-sea/" target="_blank">The Diplomat 4/25/16</a>), and President Duterte of the Philippines has indicated that he would not lead his country to war with China over this issue (<a href="http://thediplomat.com/2016/06/did-a-us-line-in-the-sand-at-scarborough-shoal-just-wash-away/" target="_blank">The Diplomat 6/25/16</a>). For more information on land reclamation in the South China Sea see the <a href="https://amti.csis.org/island-tracker/" target="_blank">Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative</a>.
Recommended Questions
<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/279" target="_blank">Will negotiations on a China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) free trade agreement be completed before 1 October 2017?</a>
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<hr>
China did not begin land reclamation activity at Scarborough Shoal or in the Macclesfield Bank. This question closed as "b) No," with and end date of 1 October 2017.
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<hr>
| 2017-10-05 | gjopen | ["http://www.reuters.com/article/us-asean-philippines-idUSKBN1AL05R", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/24/asia/china-south-china-sea-cinema/index.html", "https://www.thecipherbrief.com/article/exclusive/preventing-zombie-intel-officers-stealing-any-secrets-they-can-1091?utm_content=buffer9c44b&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/04/world/asia/vietnam-south-china-sea-repsol.html", "http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/17/china-reportedly-installs-rocket-launchers-on-disputed-south-china-sea-island.html", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-asia-storm-japan/weakening-typhoon-talim-brings-heavy-rain-to-southwestern-japan-idUSKCN1BR05M", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Pacific_typhoon_season", "http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2106473/chinas-ambitions-develop-floating-nuclear-reactors", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-southchinasea-exclusive-idUSKBN1AQ0YK", "http://www.defensenews.com/articles/satellite-images-reveal-chinese-expansion-in-south-china-sea", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-philippines-china-idUSKCN1AV0VJ", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-05/as-world-watches-kim-china-quietly-builds-south-china-sea-clout", "https://phys.org/news/2017-09-nasa-typhoon-doksuri-south-china.html", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2017/09/07/to-stop-kim-jong-un-china-needs-a-big-prize-the-south-china-sea/#37f89c946df1", "https://www.thecipherbrief.com/column/strategic-view/wanted-robust-intelligence-and-diplomatic-reporting#.WYVEp04mEyY.linkedin", "http://www.foreigndesknews.com/news/politics/china-builds-new-military/", "http://www.ecns.cn/military/2017/08-24/270508.shtml", "https://www.thecipherbrief.com/expert/John-Sipher", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-asean-philippines-idUSKBN1AL05R?il=0", "http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/03/17/asia-pacific/china-planning-monitoring-station-hotly-contested-south-china-sea-shoal/", "http://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/2109368/chinas-communist-party-united-under-xi-duration", "https://amti.csis.org/", "http://www.indexmundi.com/factbook/compare/china.russia", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-asean-back-framework-for-south-china-sea-talks-1502023247", "https://www.pri.org/stories/2017-05-22/china-working-largest-infrastructure-endeavor-human-history"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-10-04 | 0.0 | [["2016-10-04", 0.725], ["2016-10-04", 0.75], ["2016-10-04", 0.75], ["2016-10-05", 0.65], ["2016-10-05", 0.7], ["2016-10-06", 0.74], ["2016-10-06", 0.75], ["2016-10-07", 0.71], ["2016-10-07", 0.67], ["2016-10-08", 0.61], ["2016-10-09", 0.62], ["2016-10-09", 0.635], ["2016-10-10", 0.6], ["2016-10-10", 0.57], ["2016-10-10", 0.57], ["2016-10-11", 0.59], ["2016-10-12", 0.62], ["2016-10-12", 0.59], 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2020-01-01 | Will legislation eliminating the unit limit per manufacturer for the U.S. federal electric vehicle tax credit become law before 1 January 2020? | binary | The Qualified Plug-In Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit applies to the first 200,000 units sold by a manufacturer (<a href="https://www.irs.gov/businesses/plug-in-electric-vehicle-credit-irc-30-and-irc-30d" target="_blank">The IRS</a>, <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/30D" target="_blank">Cornell Law</a>). Tesla and GM each reached the unit limit in 2018 and are lobbying for the law to be changed (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/02/gm-hit-200000-us-electric-vehicles-sold-in-2018.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://electrek.co/2018/07/12/tesla-tsla-federal-tax-credit-threshold/" target="_blank">Electrek</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>. </p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2020-01-03 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2019-01-18 | 0.0 | [["2019-01-18", 0.2], ["2019-01-18", 0.265], ["2019-01-18", 0.3], ["2019-01-18", 0.315], ["2019-01-18", 0.3], ["2019-01-18", 0.3], ["2019-01-18", 0.2], ["2019-01-18", 0.195], ["2019-01-19", 0.2], 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2016-04-24 | Will Haiti hold run-off presidential elections as scheduled on 24 April 2016? | binary | Presidential elections in Haiti in October 2015 failed to produce a clear winner. After being postponed twice, the runoffs are scheduled to be held 24 April 2016 (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-haiti-election-idUSKCN0SU36N20151106" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/haiti/article65146567.html" target="_blank">Miami Herald</a>).
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<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/144" target="_blank">Who will win the upcoming Philippine presidential election?</a> | 2016-04-25 | gjopen | ["http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/haiti/article70110512.html", "http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/article68956712.html", "http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/haiti/article56092280.html", "http://www.africanews.com/2016/04/19/haiti-to-miss-poll-deadline-electoral-chief/", "http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0XC0D4", "http://www.as-coa.org/articles/haiti-update-political-impasse-thats-delaying-presidential-runoff", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/22/gitrep-21apr16pm/", "http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/haiti/article70110512.html#storylink=cpy", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/13/gitrep-13apr16am/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/21/gitrep-20apr16pm/", "http://www.nycaribnews.com/latest-news/us-legislators-want-elections-be-held-haiti-scheduled", "http://www.haitilibre.com/article-17084-haiti-flash-elections-reportees-sine-die.html", "http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/haiti/article70385237.html", "http://haitielection2015.blogspot.com/", "http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-haiti-election-idUKKCN0XC0D6", "http://www.rfi.fr/ameriques/20160413-haiti-partisans-martelly-phtk-manifestent-demander-elections", "http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/haiti-will-miss-election/2698588.html", "http://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-17190-haiti-elections-verification-commission-terms-of-reference-approved-and-signed.html", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/07/gitrep-06apr16pm/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-haiti-election-idUSKCN0XC0D4", "http://www.thelocal.es/20160407/three-way-coalition-talks-launched-as-clock-ticks-in-spain", "http://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/op-ed/article71435012.html", "http://aa.com.tr/en/politics/haiti-to-get-election-dates-at-end-of-may/558066"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-04-05 | 0.0 | [["2016-04-05", 0.5], ["2016-04-05", 1.0], ["2016-04-05", 0.975], ["2016-04-05", 0.5], ["2016-04-05", 0.05], ["2016-04-05", 0.05], ["2016-04-05", 0.05], ["2016-04-05", 0.045], ["2016-04-05", 0.06], ["2016-04-05", 0.08], ["2016-04-05", 0.08], ["2016-04-05", 0.08], ["2016-04-05", 0.065], ["2016-04-05", 0.065], ["2016-04-05", 0.05], ["2016-04-05", 0.05], ["2016-04-05", 0.05], ["2016-04-05", 0.05], ["2016-04-05", 0.05], ["2016-04-05", 0.05], ["2016-04-05", 0.05], ["2016-04-06", 0.05], ["2016-04-06", 0.045], ["2016-04-06", 0.035], ["2016-04-06", 0.04], ["2016-04-06", 0.05], ["2016-04-06", 0.04], ["2016-04-06", 0.03], ["2016-04-06", 0.005], ["2016-04-06", 0.0], ["2016-04-06", 0.0], ["2016-04-06", 0.0], ["2016-04-06", 0.0], ["2016-04-06", 0.0], ["2016-04-06", 0.0], ["2016-04-06", 0.005], ["2016-04-06", 0.01], ["2016-04-06", 0.01], ["2016-04-06", 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["2016-04-08", 0.0], ["2016-04-08", 0.0], ["2016-04-08", 0.0], ["2016-04-08", 0.0], ["2016-04-08", 0.0], ["2016-04-08", 0.0], ["2016-04-08", 0.0], ["2016-04-08", 0.0], ["2016-04-08", 0.0], ["2016-04-08", 0.0], ["2016-04-08", 0.0], ["2016-04-08", 0.0], ["2016-04-08", 0.0], ["2016-04-08", 0.0], ["2016-04-09", 0.0], ["2016-04-09", 0.005], ["2016-04-09", 0.005], ["2016-04-09", 0.01], ["2016-04-09", 0.01], ["2016-04-09", 0.01], ["2016-04-09", 0.01], ["2016-04-09", 0.01], ["2016-04-09", 0.01], ["2016-04-09", 0.01], ["2016-04-09", 0.01], ["2016-04-09", 0.01], ["2016-04-09", 0.01], ["2016-04-10", 0.015], ["2016-04-10", 0.02], ["2016-04-10", 0.02], ["2016-04-10", 0.02], ["2016-04-10", 0.02], ["2016-04-10", 0.02], ["2016-04-10", 0.02], ["2016-04-10", 0.02], ["2016-04-10", 0.02], ["2016-04-10", 0.02], ["2016-04-10", 0.015], ["2016-04-10", 0.015], ["2016-04-11", 0.02], ["2016-04-11", 0.02], ["2016-04-11", 0.02], ["2016-04-11", 0.02], ["2016-04-11", 0.02], ["2016-04-11", 0.02], ["2016-04-11", 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0.055], ["2016-04-14", 0.055], ["2016-04-14", 0.055], ["2016-04-14", 0.05], ["2016-04-14", 0.04], ["2016-04-14", 0.04], ["2016-04-14", 0.045], ["2016-04-14", 0.045], ["2016-04-14", 0.05], ["2016-04-14", 0.04], ["2016-04-14", 0.04], ["2016-04-14", 0.04], ["2016-04-15", 0.04], ["2016-04-15", 0.04], ["2016-04-15", 0.04], ["2016-04-15", 0.04], ["2016-04-15", 0.035], ["2016-04-15", 0.03], ["2016-04-15", 0.03], ["2016-04-15", 0.03], ["2016-04-15", 0.03], ["2016-04-15", 0.03], ["2016-04-15", 0.03], ["2016-04-15", 0.03], ["2016-04-15", 0.03], ["2016-04-15", 0.025], ["2016-04-15", 0.025], ["2016-04-15", 0.03], ["2016-04-15", 0.02], ["2016-04-16", 0.015], ["2016-04-16", 0.015], ["2016-04-16", 0.015], ["2016-04-16", 0.015], ["2016-04-16", 0.02], ["2016-04-16", 0.01], ["2016-04-16", 0.01], ["2016-04-16", 0.01], ["2016-04-16", 0.01], ["2016-04-16", 0.01], ["2016-04-16", 0.01], ["2016-04-16", 0.01], ["2016-04-16", 0.01], ["2016-04-16", 0.005], ["2016-04-17", 0.005], ["2016-04-17", 0.005], ["2016-04-17", 0.01], ["2016-04-17", 0.01], ["2016-04-17", 0.01], ["2016-04-17", 0.01], ["2016-04-17", 0.01], ["2016-04-17", 0.01], ["2016-04-17", 0.01], ["2016-04-18", 0.01], ["2016-04-18", 0.01], ["2016-04-18", 0.01], ["2016-04-18", 0.01], ["2016-04-18", 0.01], ["2016-04-18", 0.01], ["2016-04-18", 0.01], ["2016-04-18", 0.01], ["2016-04-18", 0.01], ["2016-04-18", 0.01], ["2016-04-18", 0.01], ["2016-04-18", 0.01], ["2016-04-18", 0.01], ["2016-04-18", 0.01], ["2016-04-18", 0.01], ["2016-04-18", 0.01], ["2016-04-18", 0.01], ["2016-04-18", 0.01], ["2016-04-19", 0.01], ["2016-04-19", 0.01], ["2016-04-19", 0.01], ["2016-04-19", 0.01], ["2016-04-19", 0.01], ["2016-04-19", 0.01], ["2016-04-19", 0.01], ["2016-04-19", 0.01], ["2016-04-19", 0.015], ["2016-04-19", 0.01], ["2016-04-19", 0.01], ["2016-04-19", 0.02], ["2016-04-19", 0.02], ["2016-04-19", 0.02], ["2016-04-19", 0.015], ["2016-04-19", 0.015], ["2016-04-19", 0.015], ["2016-04-19", 0.015], ["2016-04-19", 0.01], ["2016-04-19", 0.01], ["2016-04-19", 0.01], ["2016-04-19", 0.01], ["2016-04-19", 0.01], ["2016-04-19", 0.01], ["2016-04-19", 0.01], ["2016-04-20", 0.01], ["2016-04-20", 0.01], ["2016-04-20", 0.01], ["2016-04-20", 0.01], ["2016-04-20", 0.01], ["2016-04-20", 0.01], ["2016-04-20", 0.01], ["2016-04-20", 0.01], ["2016-04-20", 0.01], ["2016-04-20", 0.01], ["2016-04-20", 0.01], ["2016-04-20", 0.01], ["2016-04-20", 0.01], ["2016-04-21", 0.01], ["2016-04-21", 0.01], ["2016-04-21", 0.01], ["2016-04-21", 0.01], ["2016-04-21", 0.01], ["2016-04-21", 0.01], ["2016-04-21", 0.01], ["2016-04-21", 0.01], ["2016-04-21", 0.01], ["2016-04-21", 0.01], ["2016-04-21", 0.01], ["2016-04-22", 0.01], ["2016-04-22", 0.01], ["2016-04-22", 0.01], ["2016-04-22", 0.01], ["2016-04-22", 0.01], ["2016-04-22", 0.01], ["2016-04-22", 0.01], ["2016-04-22", 0.01], ["2016-04-22", 0.01], ["2016-04-22", 0.01], ["2016-04-22", 0.01], ["2016-04-22", 0.01], ["2016-04-23", 0.01], ["2016-04-23", 0.01], ["2016-04-23", 0.01], ["2016-04-23", 0.01], ["2016-04-23", 0.01], ["2016-04-24", 0.01], ["2016-04-24", 0.01], ["2016-04-24", 0.01], ["2016-04-24", 0.01], ["2016-04-24", 0.01], ["2016-04-24", 0.0], ["2016-04-24", 0.0], ["2016-04-24", 0.0], ["2016-04-24", 0.0], ["2016-04-24", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/175 | True |
2016-02-21 | Will China conduct naval exercises with any ASEAN member before 1 June 2016? | binary | Tabletop exercises, war games, and simulations will not suffice to resolve the question. China's defense minister has expressed interest in holding joint naval exercises with members of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) amidst heightened tensions in the South China Sea; at least one ASEAN member government has welcomed the proposal (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/16/us-china-asean-idUSKCN0SA05420151016" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="http://www.cfr.org/asia-and-pacific/asean-association-southeast-asian-nations/p18616" target="_blank">CFR</a>, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/07/30/world/asia/what-china-has-been-building-in-the-south-china-sea.html" target="_blank">NYTimes</a>).
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<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/34-will-china-officially-declare-an-air-defense-identification-zone-adiz-over-any-part-of-the-south-china-sea-before-1-october-2016" target = "_blank">Will China officially declare an Air-Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 October 2016?</a>
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<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/112-will-russia-conduct-a-naval-exercise-in-the-western-hemisphere-with-a-central-or-south-american-country-before-1-july-2016" target = "_blank">Will Russia conduct a naval exercise in the Western Hemisphere with a Central or South American country before 1 July 2016?</a> | 2016-02-24 | gjopen | ["http://ensemble.va.com.au/tableau/suzy/TT_ResearchProjects/Hexen2039/PsyO/mkultra.html", "http://www.soundcloud.com/pabruce", "http://www.janes.com/article/56891/china-commissions-three-vessels-into-south-sea-fleet", "http://english.chinamil.com.cn/news-channels/china-military-news/2016-02/22/content_6922983.htm", "http://www.khmertimeskh.com/news/21723/chinese-warships-dock-in-sihanoukville/", "http://english.chinamil.com.cn/news-channels/index.htm", "http://io9.gizmodo.com/5838255/every-crazy-cia-plot-youve-heard-of-originated-with-one-man", "http://www.frankolsonproject.org/Articles/Mulholland.html", "https://mccoyote.wordpress.com/mkultra/", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/86-will-china-conduct-naval-exercises-with-any-asean-member-before-1-june-2016/www.soundcloud.com/pabruce", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Ewen_Cameron", "http://www.janes.com/article/55839/cambodia-expands-military-ties-with-china", "http://www.geoengineeringwatch.org/geoengineering-frankenstorm-hurricane0sandy-and-the-air-force-weather-weapon-system-pt1/", "http://www3.navy.mi.th/index.php/main/detail/content_id/10654&usg=ALkJrhgV9vITM-tjZ2zFDlBjqOZyR2xx7w", "https://www.theguardian.com/science/the-lay-scientist/2016/feb/25/how-real-is-that-atlas-robot-boston-dynamics-video", "http://en.people.cn/n3/2016/0129/c98649-9011392.html", "http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/23/beijing-says-us-defence-of-hawaii-no-different-to-its-deployments-in-south-china-sea", "http://www.janes.com/article/55047/usn-and-southeast-asian-navies-conduct-latest-seacat-exercise", "https://youtu.be/GtHwHdnnvt8", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-cambodia-china-japan-idUSKCN0VQ152", "http://atimes.com/2016/02/the-us-navys-real-china-challenge-an-anti-access-swarm-strike/", "http://www.janes.com/article/55696/plan-holds-snap-drills-in-south-china-sea", "http://csat.au.af.mil/2025/volume3/vol3ch15.pdf", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/143169", "http://www.nti.org/treaties-and-regimes/association-southeast-asian-nations-asean/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2015-11-24 | 1.0 | [["2015-11-24", 0.505], ["2015-11-24", 0.505], ["2015-11-24", 0.56], ["2015-11-25", 0.56], ["2015-11-25", 0.55], ["2015-11-25", 0.55], ["2015-11-25", 0.55], ["2015-11-25", 0.55], ["2015-11-25", 0.55], ["2015-11-25", 0.55], ["2015-11-25", 0.57], ["2015-11-25", 0.65], ["2015-11-26", 0.65], ["2015-11-26", 0.57], ["2015-11-26", 0.61], ["2015-11-26", 0.65], ["2015-11-27", 0.65], ["2015-11-27", 0.65], ["2015-11-27", 0.65], ["2015-11-27", 0.65], ["2015-11-28", 0.65], ["2015-11-28", 0.65], ["2015-11-28", 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2016-12-31 | Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Bangladesh before 1 January 2017? | binary | For more information on what constitutes an episode of mass killing, see the Early Warning Project’s <a href = "http://www.earlywarningproject.com/definitions" target = "_blank">Definitions</a> page.
The Early Warning Project’s 2015 statistical risk assessments identified Bangladesh as one of the 15 countries at greatest risk of an onset of a new episode of state-led mass killing (<a href="http://www.earlywarningproject.com/countries/bangladesh" target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). Those forecasts do not include the risk of mass killing by non-state groups, which would also produce a “yes” answer to this question.
This question will be resolved by the Early Warning Project, in consultation with subject matter experts, using publicly available secondary sources. If the project determines that a new episode of mass killing has occurred, relevant evidence will be summarized in a post on <a href = "http://www.earlywarningproject.com/posts" target = "_blank">EWP's blog</a>.
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<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/189" target="_blank">Will the Democratic Republic of the Congo hold presidential elections in 2016?</a>
<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/158-will-there-be-a-new-episode-of-mass-killing-in-democratic-republic-of-congo-before-1-january-2017" target="_blank">Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Democratic Republic of Congo before 1 January 2017?</a>
This question was closed as a "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. The EWP did not find evidence of a new mass killing episode in Bangldesh before the end of 2016 (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/2017/03/29/state-of-the-world-mass-killing-in-2016"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
| 2017-03-30 | gjopen | ["http://bangladeshchronicle.net/2016/08/bangladesh-ranked-6th-riskiest-country-to-do-business/", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/01/world/asia/myanmars-leader-faulted-for-silence-as-army-campaigns-against-rohingya.html?emc=edit_ee_20161202&nl=todaysheadlines-europe&nlid=70183565", "http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/12-killed-as-violence-mars-bangladesh-local-body-polls/1/680233.html", "http://www.earlywarningproject.com/definitions", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/12/gitrep-11may16pm/", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/281886", "http://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/transnational-links-political-vacuum-fuel-bangladeshis-turn-to-terrorism", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-36507173", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/09/world/asia/bangladesh-killings-bloggers.html", "http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingnews/319-garment-factories-to-shut-down-in-Bangladesh-30286006.html", "http://www.earlywarningproject.com/opinion_pools", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/224791", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/25/gitrep-24mar16pm/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-bangladesh-violence-idUSKCN0Z12B5", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/244986", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/11/world/asia/bangladesh-executed-motiur-rahman-nizami.html?_r=1", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/08/gitrep-8may16am/", "http://news.siteintelgroup.com/blog/index.php/categories/jihad/entry/410-the-rising-tide-of-terror-in-bangladesh", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/11/world/asia/bangladesh-executed-motiur-rahman-nizami.html?_r=0", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/14/gitrep-13may2016pm/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/18/gitrep-17mar16pm/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/10/gitrep-9may16pm/", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/12/world/asia/bangladesh-arrests-over-3000-to-halt-attacks.html?_r=0", "http://bangladeshchronicle.net/2016/06/11684-arrested-in-four-days/", "http://qz.com/687719/rising-islamic-extremism-in-bangladesh-is-a-threat-to-india-and-beyond/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-05-03 | 0.0 | [["2016-05-03", 0.31], ["2016-05-03", 0.03], ["2016-05-03", 0.06], ["2016-05-03", 0.055], ["2016-05-03", 0.035], ["2016-05-03", 0.05], ["2016-05-03", 0.05], ["2016-05-03", 0.035], ["2016-05-03", 0.02], ["2016-05-04", 0.02], ["2016-05-04", 0.02], ["2016-05-04", 0.02], ["2016-05-04", 0.02], ["2016-05-04", 0.02], ["2016-05-04", 0.015], ["2016-05-04", 0.015], ["2016-05-04", 0.015], ["2016-05-05", 0.01], ["2016-05-05", 0.04], ["2016-05-05", 0.055], ["2016-05-06", 0.055], ["2016-05-06", 0.06], ["2016-05-07", 0.05], ["2016-05-07", 0.05], ["2016-05-07", 0.05], ["2016-05-08", 0.05], ["2016-05-08", 0.05], ["2016-05-08", 0.05], ["2016-05-09", 0.05], ["2016-05-09", 0.05], ["2016-05-09", 0.075], ["2016-05-09", 0.05], ["2016-05-10", 0.05], ["2016-05-10", 0.05], ["2016-05-10", 0.05], ["2016-05-11", 0.05], ["2016-05-11", 0.05], 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2017-05-08 | Will the Philippines participate in the 2017 Balikatan military exercise? | binary | The Balikatan exercise is the flagship exercise for the US-Philippine alliance and is normally held in the spring (<a href="http://www.marforpac.marines.mil/Exercises/Balikatan/" target="_blank">United States Marine Corps</a>, <a href="http://www.update.ph/2016/06/us-philippines-start-planning-balikatan-2017/6626" target="_blank">Update Philippines</a>). President Duterte announced the October 2016 military exercise between US and Filipino military forces would be the last one (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-usa-exercises-idUSKCN1240NZ" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2016/10/20/1635493/cabinet-not-consulted-termination-philippine-us-exercises" target="_blank">The Philippine Star</a>, <a href="http://cnnphilippines.com/news/2016/09/29/Duterte-last-US-joint-military-exercise.html" target="_blank">CNN Philippines</a>).
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This question was closed as "yes" with an end date of 8 May 2017. Balikatan started on 8 May 2017 and the Philippines are participating (<a href = "http://www.rappler.com/nation/169168-balikatan-duterte-opening-philippines"target="_blank">Rappler</a>, <a href = "http://www.nydailynews.com/newswires/news/world/philippines-smaller-scale-joint-military-exercises-article-1.3146349"target="_blank">NY Daily News</a>, <a href = "http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2017/05/08/1697947/australia-japan-forces-join-balikatan-2017"target="-blank">The Philippine Star</a>, <a href = "http://thediplomat.com/2017/04/what-to-expect-from-the-2017-us-philippines-balikatan-military-exercise/"target="_blank">The Diplomat</a>).
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<hr> | 2017-05-11 | gjopen | ["http://news.mb.com.ph/2017/01/26/lorenzana-us-to-build-fix-facilities-in-ph-camps-under-edca/", "https://www.army.mil/article/155880/Welcome_to_the_Jungle___25th_ID_trains_jungle_experts", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-usa-defence-idUSKBN17Q120", "http://existentialcomics.com/comic/", "http://asianjournal.com/news/philippine-us-military-exercises-to-begin-this-month/", "http://www.rappler.com/nation/165790-us-warship-fitzgerald-subic", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2017/02/24/asean-neutrality-a-strategic-windfall-for-china/#2ed2879b7b11", "http://www.3rdmardiv.marines.mil/Units/Jungle-Warfare-Training-Center/", "http://www.okinawa.marines.mil/News/News-Article-Display/Article/1140910/uspacom-asbbc-collects-blood-for-balikatan-exercise-in-the-philippines/", "https://www.stripes.com/news/us-philippines-cancel-annual-amphibious-landing-drill-1.443993", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2017/01/30/south-china-sea-duterte-is-getting-ready-for-the-next-flip-flop/#7c907e9b3153", "http://asianjournal.com/news/ambassador-kim-ph-us-to-maintain-2017-joint-exercises/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-02-10/china-u-s-warplanes-had-unsafe-encounter-in-south-china-sea", "http://www.rappler.com/nation/169168-balikatan-duterte-opening-philippines", "http://www.militarytimes.com/articles/no-phiblex-in-2017", "http://www.update.ph/2017/04/balikatan-2017-to-take-place-may-8-to-19/16977", "http://www.update.ph/2017/03/us-philippines-balikatan-2017-set-next-month/15504", "http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2017/05/08/1697947/australia-japan-forces-join-balikatan-2017", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-asean-philippines-idUSKBN1600I3", "http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2017/04/16/1690867/philippines-us-hold-military-drills", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-usa-defence-idUSKBN15A18Z?il=0", 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2019-03-31 | Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan? | binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Sudan from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://earlywarningproject.ushmm.org"target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this.
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<hr>
| 2020-03-18 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2018-12-28 | 0.0 | [["2018-12-28", 0.02], ["2018-12-28", 0.135], ["2018-12-29", 0.135], ["2018-12-29", 0.07], ["2018-12-29", 0.07], ["2018-12-31", 0.07], ["2018-12-31", 0.045], ["2018-12-31", 0.02], ["2019-01-01", 0.02], ["2019-01-02", 0.02], ["2019-01-02", 0.035], ["2019-01-03", 0.03], ["2019-01-03", 0.025], ["2019-01-04", 0.025], ["2019-01-04", 0.02], ["2019-01-04", 0.02], ["2019-01-05", 0.02], ["2019-01-06", 0.025], ["2019-01-06", 0.025], ["2019-01-06", 0.04], ["2019-01-06", 0.05], ["2019-01-06", 0.125], ["2019-01-06", 0.15], ["2019-01-06", 0.155], ["2019-01-06", 0.23], ["2019-01-06", 0.3], ["2019-01-06", 0.3], ["2019-01-06", 0.35], ["2019-01-06", 0.42], ["2019-01-07", 0.35], ["2019-01-07", 0.3], ["2019-01-07", 0.3], ["2019-01-07", 0.23], ["2019-01-07", 0.23], ["2019-01-07", 0.23], ["2019-01-07", 0.23], ["2019-01-08", 0.23], ["2019-01-08", 0.25], ["2019-01-08", 0.25], ["2019-01-09", 0.21], ["2019-01-09", 0.21], ["2019-01-09", 0.21], ["2019-01-10", 0.215], ["2019-01-11", 0.22], ["2019-01-11", 0.23], ["2019-01-11", 0.21], ["2019-01-13", 0.18], ["2019-01-13", 0.18], ["2019-01-13", 0.18], ["2019-01-15", 0.15], ["2019-01-16", 0.15], ["2019-01-17", 0.14], ["2019-01-18", 0.145], ["2019-01-19", 0.15], ["2019-01-20", 0.15], ["2019-01-20", 0.145], ["2019-01-20", 0.145], ["2019-01-22", 0.145], ["2019-01-22", 0.145], ["2019-01-23", 0.145], ["2019-01-24", 0.145], ["2019-01-25", 0.145], ["2019-01-26", 0.15], ["2019-01-27", 0.15], ["2019-01-28", 0.15], ["2019-01-28", 0.145], ["2019-01-29", 0.145], ["2019-01-29", 0.145], ["2019-01-29", 0.14], ["2019-01-29", 0.14], ["2019-01-29", 0.145], ["2019-01-29", 0.145], ["2019-01-31", 0.145], ["2019-02-01", 0.12], ["2019-02-01", 0.12], ["2019-02-01", 0.12], ["2019-02-03", 0.12], ["2019-02-05", 0.12], ["2019-02-05", 0.1], ["2019-02-08", 0.1], ["2019-02-11", 0.1], ["2019-02-12", 0.1], ["2019-02-16", 0.1], ["2019-02-16", 0.1], ["2019-02-20", 0.1], ["2019-02-21", 0.1], ["2019-02-22", 0.1], ["2019-02-24", 0.1], ["2019-02-26", 0.1], ["2019-02-28", 0.1], ["2019-02-28", 0.1], ["2019-02-28", 0.1], ["2019-03-01", 0.1], ["2019-03-01", 0.1], ["2019-03-04", 0.1], ["2019-03-05", 0.1], ["2019-03-07", 0.1], ["2019-03-07", 0.085], ["2019-03-07", 0.085], ["2019-03-07", 0.065], ["2019-03-07", 0.07], ["2019-03-09", 0.07], ["2019-03-09", 0.07], ["2019-03-10", 0.07], ["2019-03-11", 0.07], ["2019-03-11", 0.065], ["2019-03-11", 0.06], ["2019-03-12", 0.06], ["2019-03-12", 0.055], ["2019-03-13", 0.055], ["2019-03-13", 0.055], ["2019-03-14", 0.055], ["2019-03-19", 0.055], ["2019-03-21", 0.055], ["2019-03-22", 0.05], ["2019-03-25", 0.05], ["2019-03-29", 0.05], ["2019-03-30", 0.05], ["2019-03-31", 0.05]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1071 | True |
2018-09-18 | Before 1 January 2019, will South Korean President Moon Jae-in visit Pyongyang?
| binary | President Moon visiting Pyongyang is part of the Panmunjom Declaration signed by North and South Korea (<a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2018/04/27/the-panmmunjom-declaration-full-text-of-agreement-between-north-korea-and-south-korea/"target="_blank">The Washington Post</a>, <a href = "http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2018/05/17/0401000000AEN20180517009200315.html"target="_blank">Yonhap News</a>, <a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/south-korea-may-try-for-a-three-way-summit-in-singapore-with-us-and-north-korea/2018/05/31/2b1b5d2e-64cb-11e8-b166-fea8410bcded_story.html"target="_blank">The Washington Post</a>)
<hr>
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This question closed as 'Yes' with an end date of 18 September 2018 (<a href = "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-southkorea-summit/leaders-of-two-koreas-meet-in-pyongyang-for-talks-on-ending-war-idUSKCN1LX1SC?il=0"target="_blank">Reuters</a>).
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2018-10-01 | Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar? | binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">The EWP</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2018 and will be resolved in July 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Myanmar from July 2018 to June 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
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<hr> | 2019-12-09 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2018-06-27 | 0.0 | [["2018-06-27", 0.45], ["2018-06-27", 0.05], ["2018-06-27", 0.45], ["2018-06-27", 0.665], ["2018-06-27", 0.3], ["2018-06-27", 0.48], ["2018-06-27", 0.66], ["2018-06-27", 0.43], ["2018-06-27", 0.43], ["2018-06-27", 0.43], ["2018-06-27", 0.4], ["2018-06-27", 0.4], ["2018-06-27", 0.36], ["2018-06-27", 0.5], ["2018-06-27", 0.625], ["2018-06-27", 0.6], ["2018-06-27", 0.5], ["2018-06-27", 0.45], ["2018-06-27", 0.41], ["2018-06-27", 0.325], ["2018-06-27", 0.32], ["2018-06-27", 0.33], ["2018-06-27", 0.315], ["2018-06-28", 0.26], ["2018-06-28", 0.26], ["2018-06-28", 0.22], ["2018-06-28", 0.22], ["2018-06-28", 0.22], ["2018-06-28", 0.25], ["2018-06-29", 0.22], ["2018-06-29", 0.215], ["2018-06-29", 0.215], ["2018-07-01", 0.16], ["2018-07-01", 0.1], ["2018-07-02", 0.1], ["2018-07-02", 0.1], ["2018-07-02", 0.1], ["2018-07-02", 0.1], ["2018-07-03", 0.1], ["2018-07-03", 0.1], ["2018-07-03", 0.08], ["2018-07-03", 0.06], ["2018-07-03", 0.1], ["2018-07-06", 0.08], ["2018-07-06", 0.08], ["2018-07-06", 0.08], ["2018-07-07", 0.08], ["2018-07-09", 0.08], ["2018-07-12", 0.08], ["2018-07-12", 0.08], ["2018-07-14", 0.06], ["2018-07-15", 0.05], ["2018-07-15", 0.05], ["2018-07-16", 0.05], ["2018-07-16", 0.075], ["2018-07-17", 0.075], ["2018-07-18", 0.075], ["2018-07-19", 0.075], ["2018-07-19", 0.075], ["2018-07-20", 0.075], ["2018-07-22", 0.075], ["2018-07-23", 0.075], ["2018-07-23", 0.075], ["2018-07-24", 0.1], ["2018-07-24", 0.1], ["2018-07-29", 0.1], ["2018-07-30", 0.1], ["2018-07-30", 0.1], ["2018-07-30", 0.1], ["2018-07-31", 0.1], ["2018-08-01", 0.1], ["2018-08-02", 0.1], ["2018-08-03", 0.1], ["2018-08-04", 0.1], ["2018-08-05", 0.1], ["2018-08-05", 0.1], ["2018-08-06", 0.1], ["2018-08-06", 0.1], ["2018-08-07", 0.1], ["2018-08-08", 0.1], ["2018-08-09", 0.105], ["2018-08-09", 0.105], ["2018-08-10", 0.1], ["2018-08-10", 0.1], ["2018-08-11", 0.1], ["2018-08-12", 0.05], ["2018-08-12", 0.05], ["2018-08-13", 0.05], ["2018-08-13", 0.05], ["2018-08-13", 0.05], ["2018-08-14", 0.05], ["2018-08-14", 0.05], ["2018-08-15", 0.07], ["2018-08-16", 0.05], ["2018-08-17", 0.05], ["2018-08-17", 0.05], ["2018-08-17", 0.05], ["2018-08-18", 0.05], ["2018-08-18", 0.05], ["2018-08-19", 0.05], ["2018-08-19", 0.05], ["2018-08-19", 0.05], ["2018-08-21", 0.05], ["2018-08-22", 0.05], ["2018-08-23", 0.05], ["2018-08-23", 0.055], ["2018-08-25", 0.06], ["2018-08-26", 0.065], ["2018-08-27", 0.065], ["2018-08-28", 0.065], ["2018-08-28", 0.065], ["2018-08-28", 0.07], ["2018-08-29", 0.075], ["2018-08-30", 0.075], ["2018-08-30", 0.075], ["2018-09-01", 0.075], ["2018-09-01", 0.075], ["2018-09-02", 0.075], ["2018-09-02", 0.075], ["2018-09-03", 0.06], ["2018-09-03", 0.06], ["2018-09-06", 0.06], ["2018-09-07", 0.06], ["2018-09-08", 0.06], ["2018-09-09", 0.06], ["2018-09-10", 0.06], ["2018-09-11", 0.06], ["2018-09-11", 0.06], ["2018-09-12", 0.06], ["2018-09-13", 0.06], ["2018-09-13", 0.05], ["2018-09-15", 0.07], ["2018-09-16", 0.065], ["2018-09-18", 0.065], ["2018-09-18", 0.065], ["2018-09-19", 0.065], ["2018-09-20", 0.065], ["2018-09-21", 0.07], ["2018-09-21", 0.07], ["2018-09-22", 0.07], ["2018-09-24", 0.07], ["2018-09-25", 0.07], ["2018-09-25", 0.07], ["2018-09-26", 0.06], ["2018-09-28", 0.06], ["2018-09-29", 0.06], ["2018-09-29", 0.06], ["2018-10-01", 0.06]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/968 | True |
2017-01-20 | Will a new Supreme Court Justice be appointed before 20 January 2017? | binary | This question was closed on "No" with a suspend date of 20 January 2017.
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<hr>
The death of Supreme Court Justice Scalia presents an interesting challenge for the administration in an election year (<a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/02/13/what-happens-when-a-supreme-court-justice-dies-in-an-election-year-nobody-really-knows/" target = "_blank">Washington Post</a>, <a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/02/15/us/supreme-court-nominations-election-year-scalia.html" target = "_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.scotusblog.com/2016/02/is-a-recess-appointment-to-the-court-an-option/" target = "_blank">SCOTUSblog</a>).
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0.05], ["2016-11-13", 0.05], ["2016-11-13", 0.05], ["2016-11-14", 0.05], ["2016-11-15", 0.05], ["2016-11-16", 0.03], ["2016-11-16", 0.03], ["2016-11-18", 0.03], ["2016-11-18", 0.025], ["2016-11-19", 0.02], ["2016-11-20", 0.02], ["2016-11-20", 0.01], ["2016-11-21", 0.01], ["2016-11-21", 0.01], ["2016-11-21", 0.01], ["2016-11-22", 0.01], ["2016-11-23", 0.01], ["2016-11-23", 0.01], ["2016-11-25", 0.005], ["2016-11-26", 0.0], ["2016-11-27", 0.0], ["2016-11-28", 0.0], ["2016-11-28", 0.0], ["2016-11-30", 0.0], ["2016-12-01", 0.0], ["2016-12-02", 0.0], ["2016-12-04", 0.0], ["2016-12-05", 0.0], ["2016-12-06", 0.0], ["2016-12-06", 0.0], ["2016-12-07", 0.0], ["2016-12-08", 0.0], ["2016-12-10", 0.0], ["2016-12-11", 0.0], ["2016-12-12", 0.0], ["2016-12-14", 0.0], ["2016-12-15", 0.0], ["2016-12-15", 0.0], ["2016-12-17", 0.0], ["2016-12-18", 0.0], ["2016-12-19", 0.0], ["2016-12-20", 0.0], ["2016-12-21", 0.0], ["2016-12-23", 0.0], ["2016-12-24", 0.0], ["2016-12-27", 0.0], ["2016-12-28", 0.0], ["2016-12-29", 0.0], ["2016-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-01-01", 0.0], ["2017-01-02", 0.0], ["2017-01-02", 0.0], ["2017-01-03", 0.0], ["2017-01-04", 0.0], ["2017-01-06", 0.0], ["2017-01-06", 0.0], ["2017-01-07", 0.0], ["2017-01-09", 0.0], ["2017-01-09", 0.0], ["2017-01-10", 0.0], ["2017-01-11", 0.0], ["2017-01-12", 0.0], ["2017-01-13", 0.0], ["2017-01-14", 0.0], ["2017-01-16", 0.0], ["2017-01-16", 0.0], ["2017-01-18", 0.0], ["2017-01-19", 0.0], ["2017-01-20", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/150 | True |
2017-07-01 | Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Pakistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Pakistan? | binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Pakistan from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g. military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g. in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ Open</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on other questions in this challenge: <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/16-early-warning-project-2017-2018"target = "_blank">Early Warning Project 2017 - 2018</a></sub>
This question was closed as no (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/ewp"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| 2019-12-05 | gjopen | ["http://www.earlywarningproject.com/2017/03/29/state-of-the-world-mass-killing-in-2016", "http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/pakistan/database/casualties.htm"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-03-31 | 0.0 | [["2017-03-31", 0.15], ["2017-03-31", 0.16], ["2017-03-31", 0.255], ["2017-03-31", 0.675], ["2017-03-31", 0.5], ["2017-03-31", 0.95], ["2017-03-31", 0.1], ["2017-03-31", 0.05], ["2017-04-01", 0.075], ["2017-04-01", 0.075], ["2017-04-01", 0.1], ["2017-04-01", 0.08], ["2017-04-01", 0.065], ["2017-04-01", 0.065], ["2017-04-01", 0.09], ["2017-04-02", 0.09], ["2017-04-02", 0.08], ["2017-04-02", 0.08], ["2017-04-02", 0.08], ["2017-04-02", 0.065], ["2017-04-02", 0.05], ["2017-04-03", 0.075], ["2017-04-03", 0.05], ["2017-04-03", 0.08], ["2017-04-03", 0.065], ["2017-04-03", 0.065], ["2017-04-03", 0.09], ["2017-04-03", 0.085], ["2017-04-03", 0.08], ["2017-04-04", 0.08], ["2017-04-04", 0.055], ["2017-04-04", 0.055], ["2017-04-05", 0.08], 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0.02], ["2017-06-23", 0.02], ["2017-06-23", 0.02], ["2017-06-23", 0.02], ["2017-06-23", 0.02], ["2017-06-24", 0.02], ["2017-06-24", 0.02], ["2017-06-24", 0.02], ["2017-06-25", 0.02], ["2017-06-25", 0.02], ["2017-06-25", 0.02], ["2017-06-26", 0.02], ["2017-06-26", 0.03], ["2017-06-26", 0.03], ["2017-06-26", 0.03], ["2017-06-27", 0.03], ["2017-06-27", 0.03], ["2017-06-27", 0.03], ["2017-06-28", 0.03], ["2017-06-28", 0.03], ["2017-06-29", 0.03], ["2017-06-29", 0.02], ["2017-06-29", 0.02], ["2017-06-29", 0.02], ["2017-06-29", 0.02], ["2017-06-30", 0.02], ["2017-06-30", 0.02], ["2017-07-01", 0.02], ["2017-07-01", 0.02], ["2017-07-01", 0.02]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/453 | True |
2017-10-01 | Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?
| binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2017 and will be resolved in July 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Ethiopia from July 2017 through June 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as 'No', with resolutions further detailed in this <a href = "https://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2018/08/01/early-warning-project-question-resolutions-july-1-2017-june-30-2018/"target="_blank">GJ Open blog post written by EWP</a>.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| 2019-12-09 | gjopen | ["https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/02/ethiopia-many-dead-anti-government-protest-religious-festival"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-06-30 | 0.0 | [["2017-06-30", 0.0], ["2017-06-30", 0.5], ["2017-07-01", 0.25], ["2017-07-01", 0.0], ["2017-07-01", 0.005], ["2017-07-01", 0.01], ["2017-07-01", 0.01], ["2017-07-01", 0.0], ["2017-07-02", 0.0], ["2017-07-03", 0.0], ["2017-07-03", 0.0], ["2017-07-04", 0.0], ["2017-07-04", 0.0], ["2017-07-04", 0.0], ["2017-07-05", 0.0], ["2017-07-05", 0.005], ["2017-07-05", 0.105], ["2017-07-05", 0.105], ["2017-07-06", 0.1], ["2017-07-06", 0.0], ["2017-07-06", 0.0], ["2017-07-07", 0.0], ["2017-07-07", 0.0], ["2017-07-08", 0.0], ["2017-07-09", 0.0], ["2017-07-09", 0.0], ["2017-07-09", 0.0], ["2017-07-09", 0.0], ["2017-07-09", 0.0], ["2017-07-10", 0.0], ["2017-07-10", 0.0], ["2017-07-11", 0.0], ["2017-07-11", 0.0], ["2017-07-11", 0.02], ["2017-07-11", 0.025], ["2017-07-11", 0.025], ["2017-07-11", 0.055], 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2018-06-27 | In Janus v. American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees, Council 31, will the Supreme Court rule that mandatory payment of any agency fees by non-union government employees is unconstitutional? | binary | Mark Janus, an Illinois government employee, is asking the Supreme Court to overrule Abood v. Detroit Board of Education (<a href = "http://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/janus-v-american-federation-state-county-municipal-employees-council-31/"target="_blank">SCOTUS Blog</a>, <a href = "https://law.justia.com/cases/federal/appellate-courts/ca7/16-3638/16-3638-2017-03-21.html"target="_blank">Justia US Law</a>, <a href = "https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/09/judgment-day-for-public-unions/541449/"target="_blank">The Atlantic</a>, <a href = "https://www.supremecourt.gov/docket/docketfiles/html/public/16-1466.html"target="_blank">The Supreme Court of the United States</a>). Under Abood, unions are allowed to collect agency fees fron non-union employees to cover costs related to collective-bargaining. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its current term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as no.
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<hr>
The Supreme Court ruled that <a href = "https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/17pdf/16-1466_2b3j.pdf"target="_blank">mandatory payment of any agency fees by non-union government employees was unconstitutional</a>. This question closed as "yes" with an end date of 27 June 2018.
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| 2018-06-29 | gjopen | ["https://fantasyscotus.lexpredict.com/case-prediction/janus-v-afscme/", "https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED428067", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgeleef/2017/11/01/public-unions-are-about-to-lose-forced-dues-in-supreme-court-what-will-they-do/#4ceb93502400", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abood_v._Detroit_Board_of_Education", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/680340", "https://qz.com/342311/american-workers-have-pretty-much-stopped-using-their-most-powerful-weapon/", "https://www.predictit.org/Contract/8126/Will-SCOTUS-overrule-public-sector-union-decision-in-Janus-v-American-Federation-by-7-31-18#data", "http://www.freetoteach.org/page/6-facts-on-fair-share-fees", "https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/26/opinion/unions-janus-california.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-left-region&region=opinion-c-col-left-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-left-region"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2018-01-24 | 1.0 | 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2018-04-01 | Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?
| binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Yemen from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
<hr>
This question closed as No. (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/EWPJan2018Dec2018"target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a>)
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. | 2019-12-09 | gjopen | ["https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/676069", "https://www.pri.org/stories/2017-12-20/after-1000-days-civil-war-yemen-violence-has-become-normalized", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29319423", "https://www.cnn.com/2018/01/30/middleeast/yemen-nic-robertson-intl/index.html", "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/countries/yemen", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/01/yemen-worst-humanitarian-crisis-50-years-180105190332474.html", "http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=57052", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/01/monitor-450-yemeni-civilians-killed-december-180117054027984.html", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/12/yemen-level-civil-war-171204162917355.html"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-12-28 | 0.0 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["2018-04-01", 0.365], ["2018-04-01", 0.365]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/827 | True |
2017-12-01 | Will casualties from the Turkey-PKK conflict exceed 125 in any month from August through November 2017, according to the International Crisis Group?
| binary | The last ceasefire between Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) broke down in 2015, and thousands have been killed since (<a href = "http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/conflict/kurdish-conflict, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-20971100"target="_blank">Council on Foreign Relations</a>). This question will be resolved using data from the International Crisis Group's "Casualties of the Conflict" table, for the months from August through November (inclusive) (<a href = "http://www.crisisgroup.be/interactives/turkey/"target="_blank">Crisis Group</a>). If the threshold has not been reached before, the question will be suspended on 30 November 2017 and then resolved on 29 December 2017, to allow ICG to collect and code reports from late November.
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<hr>
Casualties from the Turkey-PKK conflict did not exceed 125, according to the International Crisis Group, in any month from August through November 2017. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 December 2017.
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<hr>
| 2018-01-02 | gjopen | ["http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-army-engages-in-northern-iraq-for-first-time-in-nine-years-121032", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/614170", "http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/55-pkk-militants-killed-over-last-two-days-across-turkey-121828", "http://www.yenisafak.com/en/news/more-than-100-pkk-terrorists-killed-in-turkey-in-one-week-2798070", "http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/08/turkey-emergency-decree-redesigns-vital-intstitutions.html?utm_source=Boomtrain&utm_medium=manual&utm_campaign=20170831&bt_ee=ulrrXg6drorfaW2o2vwCQwqytOtjf/dwEAuKSJRWjPe0zKGMEkj+CoWNWjnY0Oy9&bt_ts=1504196349683", "https://www.turkishminute.com/2017/10/02/68-pkk-militants-neutralized-in-one-week/?utm_content=buffer19a3b&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/turkey/11806481/PKK-urges-US-to-mediate-in-its-war-with-Turkey-and-admits-to-secret-talks-with-Washington.html", "https://www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch/august-2017#turkey", "http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/09/turkey-iraqi-kurdistan-referendum-fever-spills-over.html#ixzz4sUQRZ8hJ", "http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/Default.aspx?pageID=260&at=PKK&sbmt=1", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/555750", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/555830", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/606518", "https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/29/technology/yahoo-data-breach-hacking.html?action=click&contentCollection=Technology&module=RelatedCoverage&region=Marginalia&pgtype", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/588000", "https://www.dailysabah.com/war-on-terror/2017/04/29/over-100-pkk-ypg-terrorists-killed-in-airstrikes-in-southeastern-turkey-iraq-and-syria", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/605025", "http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/09/turkey-pkk-drone-conflict-escalates.html#ixzz4t9McR6Cj", "https://www.dailysabah.com/war-on-terror/2017/10/06/68-pkk-terrorists-killed-in-counterterror-operations-over-the-week-turkish-military", "http://www.crisisgroup.be/interactives/turkey/", "http://www.yenisafak.com/en/news/thirty-one-pkk-terrorists-neutralized-in-se-turkey-2797398", "http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/09/turkey-mob-attack-on-kurdish-funeral-sparks-outrage.html#ixzz4t9MCzZZz", "http://www.yenisafak.com/en/news/turkish-forces-kill-152-pkk-terrorists-in-october-2797301", "http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/security-forces-killed-58-pkk-militants-last-week-turkish-military----.aspx?pageID=238&nID=116899&NewsCatID=341", "http://aa.com.tr/en/info/infographic/6953"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-08-22 | 0.0 | [["2017-08-22", 0.91], ["2017-08-22", 0.9], ["2017-08-22", 0.95], ["2017-08-22", 0.97], ["2017-08-22", 0.97], ["2017-08-22", 0.945], ["2017-08-22", 0.94], ["2017-08-23", 0.9], ["2017-08-23", 0.9], ["2017-08-23", 0.9], ["2017-08-23", 0.9], 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2015-12-18 | Will both houses of Congress pass legislation lifting or relaxing the oil-export ban before 1 April 2016? | binary | The 1973 Arab oil embargo led Congress to ban crude oil exports under nearly all circumstances; opening the U.S. oil industry to exports, analysts argue, would be a net positive for the U.S. economy (http://www.wsj.com/articles/move-to-allow-u-s-oil-exports-accelerates-1439143950 ). | 2015-12-21 | gjopen | ["http://thehill.com/policy/finance/263122-11t-spending-bill-could-be-unveiled-monday-night", "http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/15/politics/harry-reid-spending-bill-oil-exports/index.html", "http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-12-14/house-democrats-said-to-be-open-to-lifting-u-s-oil-export-ban-ii6dytba", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-congress-oilexports-idUSKBN0TU2SX20151212", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/33-will-both-houses-of-congress-pass-legislation-lifting-or-relaxing-the-oil-export-ban-before-1-april-2016/www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-congress-oilexports-idUSKBN0TU2SX20151212#EIFJhrhbq8rOeV1Q.99", "http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/house-spending-tax-votes-216896", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-congress-oilexports-idUSKBN0TU2SX20151212#3P4tbaruFIt00Zym.97", "http://news.yahoo.com/oil-export-ban-play-final-stage-talks-budget-183258539--politics.html", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/congressional-leaders-agree-to-lift-40-year-ban-on-oil-exports-1450242995", "http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/congress-final-stage-talks-massive-budget-tax-bills-35709143", "http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35136831", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-export-ban-drags-down-spending-negotiations-1450198702", "http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/263371-spending-and-tax-deal-ends-crude-oil-export-ban-extends-renewable", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/congress-seen-likely-to-lift-u-s-oil-export-ban-1449874465", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-congress-oilexports-idUSKBN0TU2SX20151212#EIFJhrhbq8rOeV1Q.99", "http://www.economist.com/news/finance-economics/21684531-light-sweet-compromise-puts-end-crude-market-distortions-america-lifts", "http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/11/us-oil-export-ban-very-likely-to-be-lifted-in-spending-bill-source.html", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/18/oil-export-ban/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/13/saturday-night-is-all-right/", "http://realkochfacts.com/deal-or-no-deal-for-the-kochs-oil-export-ban-edition/", "http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-12-18/house-passes-u-s-spending-bill-that-ends-crude-oil-export-ban", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/12/super-friday-night/", "http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/senate/263709-senate-sends-18-trillion-deal-to-obama", "http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f7b97750-a3ab-11e5-8d70-42b68cfae6e4.html", "http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/trackers/2015-12-16/congress-reaches-fiscal-deal-that-ends-u-s-crude-oil-export-ban"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2015-09-14 | 1.0 | [["2015-09-14", 0.775], ["2015-09-15", 0.85], ["2015-09-15", 0.825], ["2015-09-15", 0.8], ["2015-09-15", 0.825], ["2015-09-15", 0.8], ["2015-09-15", 0.8], ["2015-09-15", 0.81], ["2015-09-15", 0.81], ["2015-09-15", 0.82], ["2015-09-15", 0.82], ["2015-09-15", 0.81], ["2015-09-15", 0.805], ["2015-09-15", 0.81], ["2015-09-15", 0.81], ["2015-09-15", 0.8], ["2015-09-15", 0.805], ["2015-09-15", 0.8], ["2015-09-16", 0.8], ["2015-09-16", 0.805], ["2015-09-16", 0.805], ["2015-09-16", 0.8], ["2015-09-16", 0.8], ["2015-09-16", 0.75], ["2015-09-16", 0.75], ["2015-09-16", 0.75], ["2015-09-16", 0.75], ["2015-09-16", 0.75], ["2015-09-16", 0.75], ["2015-09-16", 0.73], ["2015-09-16", 0.715], ["2015-09-17", 0.73], ["2015-09-17", 0.75], ["2015-09-17", 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2018-02-09 | Before 1 July 2018, will Uber, or any of its subsidiaries, agree to a settlement or be found liable for trade secrets violations in the case brought by Waymo in the Northern District of California? | binary | In February, Waymo, a subsidiary of Alphabet (Google's parent company), filed suit against Uber Technologies and some of its subsidiaries for stealing information related to autonomous vehicle development (<a href = "https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2017/02/waymo-vs-otto-aka-google-vs-uber/517683/"target="_blank">The Atlantic</a>). For more information on Waymo LLC v Uber Technologies, Inc. et all (3:2017cv00939), currently before Federal District Judge William Alsup, see: <a href = "https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3474310-waymo-uber-complaint.html"target="_blank">Waymo-Uber Complaint</a>. Settlements reached that do not include an admission of liability will still resolve the question as "yes." Subsequent appeals will not affect the resolution.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr> | 2018-02-12 | gjopen | ["https://www.docketbird.com/court-cases/Waymo-LLC-v-Uber-Technologies-Inc-et-al/cand-3:2017-cv-00939", "https://www.bloomberglaw.com/product/blaw/document/X1Q6NUBE2K82?bc=W1siQmxvb21iZXJnIExhdyIsIi9wcm9kdWN0L2JsYXcvc2VhcmNoL2h1Yi9ncm91cC81YzljODZjNjExNGRkN2JkODQxOTg", "https://www.natlawreview.com/article/federal-judge-refuses-to-close-courtroom-during-trade-secret-trial-between-silicon", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-09/uber-settles-waymo-driverless-car-lawsuit-averts-jury-verdict-jdg486do", "https://www.bloomberglaw.com/product/blaw/document/OZTKIT6TTDS0?bc=W1siU2VhcmNoIFJlc3VsdHMiLCIvcHJvZHVjdC9ibGF3L3NlYXJjaC9yZXN1bHRzLzI2NjhhYjg0OTE3M", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-alphabet-uber-ruling/u-s-judge-says-uber-withheld-evidence-delays-waymo-trial-idUSKBN1DS26X", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-alphabet-uber-lawsuit/exclusive-alphabets-waymo-demanded-1-billion-in-settlement-talks-with-uber-sources-idUSKBN1CH0QC", "https://www.theverge.com/2018/2/9/16995254/waymo-uber-lawsuit-trial-settlement", "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/feb/09/uber-waymo-reach-settlement-trade-secrets-trial", "https://www.reuters.com/article/alphabet-uber-trial/in-waymo-trial-what-fired-uber-exec-may-not-say-could-be-key-idUSKBN1FK1M6", "http://www.courts.ca.gov/documents/2016-Court-Statistics-Report.pdf", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-alphabet-uber-ruling/uber-waymo-trial-delayed-as-u-s-judge-raises-prospect-of-cover-up-idUSKBN1DS26X", "https://www.bloomberglaw.com/product/blaw/document/X1LHGB80000000?emc=BLAW%3A154417071%3A1&resource_id=c1c88eb7a560c4ee383df2568a2e4d0c&search32=", "http://thehill.com/policy/technology/366733-uber-closes-multi-billion-dollar-deal-with-softbankl", "http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-43010348", "https://techcrunch.com/2017/11/09/uber-ceo-says-2019-is-the-target-for-ipo/", "http://ec.europa.eu/internal_market/iprenforcement/docs/trade-secrets/120113_study_en.pdf", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-alphabet-uber-ruling/uber-lawyer-says-board-ex-ceo-knew-of-evidence-withheld-from-waymo-case-idUSKBN1DT2XT", "https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2017/10/judge-blasts-waymo-v-uber-lawyers-delaysn-trial-until-december/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-05/uber-s-courtroom-detour-into-the-secrets-of-the-mind-quicktake", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/537-before-1-july-2018-will-uber-or-any-of-its-subsidiaries-agree-to-a-settlement-or-be-found-liable-for-trade-secrets-violations-in-the-case-brought-by-waymo-in-the-northern-district-of-california/www.reuters.com/article/us-alphabet-uber-ruling/u-s-judge-says-uber-withheld-evidence-delays-waymo-trial-idUSKBN1DS26X", "http://money.cnn.com/2017/12/16/technology/uber-jacobs-letter/index.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-09/inside-the-abrupt-end-of-silicon-valley-s-biggest-trial", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/620740", 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2018-01-01 | Before 2018, will Russia and Cuba announce the reopening of the Lourdes Signals Intelligence Center? | binary | Russia may be looking to expand the number of military facilities it has abroad, and rumors have circulated since 2014 that Russia and Cuba have discussed reopening the Lourdes Signals Intelligence Center, which was closed in 2001 (<a href = "https://www.rt.com/politics/256829-russia-cuba-lourdes-base/" target = "_blank">RT</a>, <a href = "https://sputniknews.com/military/201610081046123220-russian-abroad-military-bases/" target = "_blank">Sputnik</a>, <a href = "https://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical-diary/russia-strives-cover-its-bases" target = "_blank">Stratfor</a>, <a href = "http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-us-major-defence-partner-agreement-manohar-parrikar-ashton-carter-4418019/"target = "_blank">Indian Express</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/221" target = "_blank"> Russia's participation in the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty</a> or on <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/222" target = "_blank"> Russia's participation in the New START treaty</a>.</sub>
<hr>
Russia and Cuba did not announce the reopening of the Lourdes Signals Intelligence Center. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
| 2018-01-02 | gjopen | ["http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/07/russia-says-it-may-reopen-soviet-era-military-bases-in-cuba-and/", "http://www.globalsecurity.org/intell/world/cuba/lourdes.htm", "http://www.janes.com/article/64911/russian-defence-budget-set-to-drop-by-12", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/521869", "http://freebeacon.com/national-security/moscow-building-spy-site-nicaragua/", "http://mt-milcom.blogspot.it/2016/02/putin-reopening-lourdes-sigint-station.html?m=1", "http://www.periodicocubano.com/interes-ruso-reabrir-base-militar-cuba/", "https://cubaconfidential.wordpress.com/2012/06/11/dirty-little-secret-why-china-needs-cuba/", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lourdes_SIGINT_Station", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-usa-cuba-idUSKBN1990A3", "https://gizmodo.com/james-clapper-says-that-america-needs-a-new-propaganda-1790801701", "http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/russian-spy-ship-viktor-leonov-spotted-virginia-article-1.2975688", "http://www.utro.ru/articles/2016/11/08/1303754.shtml"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-12-20 | 0.0 | [["2016-12-20", 0.205], ["2016-12-20", 0.05], ["2016-12-20", 0.1], ["2016-12-20", 0.1], ["2016-12-21", 0.375], ["2016-12-21", 0.25], ["2016-12-21", 0.225], ["2016-12-21", 0.18], ["2016-12-21", 0.16], ["2016-12-21", 0.155], ["2016-12-22", 0.15], ["2016-12-22", 0.14], ["2016-12-22", 0.13], ["2016-12-23", 0.12], ["2016-12-23", 0.1], ["2016-12-24", 0.1], ["2016-12-24", 0.09], ["2016-12-25", 0.09], ["2016-12-25", 0.1], ["2016-12-25", 0.1], ["2016-12-26", 0.1], ["2016-12-26", 0.1], ["2016-12-26", 0.1], ["2016-12-27", 0.1], ["2016-12-27", 0.1], ["2016-12-27", 0.1], ["2016-12-28", 0.125], ["2016-12-28", 0.1], ["2016-12-29", 0.095], ["2016-12-29", 0.08], ["2016-12-30", 0.07], ["2016-12-30", 0.06], ["2016-12-31", 0.06], ["2016-12-31", 0.055], ["2016-12-31", 0.055], ["2017-01-01", 0.05], ["2017-01-01", 0.05], ["2017-01-01", 0.05], ["2017-01-02", 0.05], ["2017-01-02", 0.05], 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2016-12-31 | Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Myanmar before 1 January 2017? | binary | For more information on what constitutes an episode of mass killing, see the Early Warning Project’s <a href = "http://www.earlywarningproject.com/definitions" target = "_blank">Definitions</a> page.
We consider Myanmar to already be experiencing a mass killing episode perpetrated by the state and targeting separatist groups and the Karen (<a href = "http://www.earlywarningproject.com/2015/11/07/update-myanmar-elections" target = "_blank">EWP Myanmar</a>). We are specifically asking about new episodes of mass killing with different targets (e.g., the Rohingya) or perpetrators (<a href = "http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2015/06/17/why-is-no-one-helping-myanmars-rohingya/" target = "_blank">Reuters</a>). The Early Warning Project’s 2015 statistical risk assessments identify Myanmar as the country with the greatest risk of an onset of new state-led mass killing. Those forecasts do not assess the risk of mass killing by non-state groups, which would also produce a “yes” answer to this question.
This question will be resolved by the Early Warning Project, in consultation with subject matter experts, using publicly available secondary sources. If the project determines that a new episode of mass killing has occurred, relevant evidence will be summarized in a post on <a href = "http://www.earlywarningproject.com/posts" target = "_blank">EWP's blog</a>.
Recommended Question
<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/95-will-a-member-of-the-national-league-for-democracy-nld-take-office-as-president-of-myanmar-before-april-2016" target="_blank">Will a member of the National League for Democracy (NLD) take office as president of Myanmar before April 2016?</a>
This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. The EWP did not find evidence of a new mass killing episode in Myanmar in 2016(<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/2017/03/29/state-of-the-world-mass-killing-in-2016"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | 2017-03-30 | gjopen | ["http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/01/world/asia/myanmars-leader-faulted-for-silence-as-army-campaigns-against-rohingya.html?emc=edit_ee_20161202&nl=todaysheadlines-europe&nlid=70183565", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-38091816", "http://www.nytimes.com/topic/destination/myanmar", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/281886", "http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/11/10/the-public-loves-myanmars-new-war-on-muslims/", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/356206", "http://www.worldbulletin.net/todays-news/178794/rohingya-groups-say-rakhine-deaths-now-excuse-for-purge", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/11/rohingya-muslims-flee-myanmar-crackdown-bangladesh-161117062551006.html", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-38049106", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/02/myanmar-armed-mob-torches-mosque-amid-spike-in-religious-tensions", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/12/many-dead-as-hundreds-of-men-wielding-pistols-and-swords-assail/", "http://www.earlywarningproject.com/opinion_pools", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-japan-idUSKBN12W3JO?il=0", "http://www.huffingtonpost.com/azeem-ibrahim/the-rohingya-are-at-the-b_b_12445526.html", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/11/myanmar-arms-muslim-civilians-rakhine-state-161103071811045.html", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/10/calls-probe-attacks-rohingya-myanmar-161025063757177.html", "http://aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/myanmar-troops-jailed-for-civilian-deaths-in-rare-move/646922", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-37970926", "http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/asia/1140120/two-dead-in-fighting-in-myanmar-town-on-china-border", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/244986", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics-idUSKCN10Z0ED?il=0", "http://www.acleddata.com/asia-data/", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-37968090?ocid=socialflow_twitter", "https://www.ecoi.net/file_upload/4765_1467293044_2016q1myanmar-en.pdf", 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2016-06-05 | Will Keiko Fujimori win Peru's upcoming presidential election? | binary | UPDATE 6/7/16: We have re-opened the question on Peru's election to allow forecasters to continue to discuss and engage with each other as the vote count continues. However, as with other election questions, we will only score forecasts made prior to the election: in this case forecasts made through the end of 4 June 16.
Peru is scheduled to hold general elections on April 10. Term limits bar incumbent president Ollanta Humala from running for that post again, and polls have identified Keiko Fujimori as the front-runner (<a href = "http://www.voanews.com/content/keiko-fujimori-clear-favorite-in-peru-election-poll/3102181.html" target = "_blank">Voice of America</a>, <a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-peru-election-guzman-idUSKCN0W6283" target = "_blank">Reuters</a>). If no candidate receives at least 50 percent of the vote in the first round, a runoff will be held in June, in which case the end date of the question will be extended.
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"http://www.wsj.com/articles/kuczynski-maintains-thin-lead-in-peru-presidential-election-1465305666", "http://elcomercio.pe/politica/elecciones/onpe-resultados-al-100-estaran-fin-semana-noticia-1907049", "http://www.idea.int/vt/countryview.cfm?CountryCode=PE", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/252423", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/253596", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-36454328", "https://resultadoselecciones2016.onpe.gob.pe/PRP2V2016/Resumen-GeneralPresidencial.html#posicion", "http://elcomercio.pe/elecciones-2016-resultados-flash", "https://next.ft.com/content/8165e4a6-2ba7-11e6-a18d-a96ab29e3c95?ftcamp=crm/email//nbe/WorldNews/product", "https://www.google.ca/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/10/peru-presidential-election-keiko-fujimori-concedes-pedro-pablo-kuczynski?client=ms-android-rogers-ca#", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/252465", "http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/peru-votes-tightening-race-shaped-leaders-legacy-39616950", "http://www.voanews.com/content/peru-election/3365240.html", "https://www.predictit.org/Market/2177/Who-will-win-the-Peruvian-presidential-runoff-election", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/251572", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/nail-biter-race-for-perus-presidency-remains-tight/2016/06/07/be784a92-2d18-11e6-b9d5-3c3063f8332c_story.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-peru-election-idUSKCN0YV2HA"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-03-08 | 0.0 | [["2016-03-08", 0.7], ["2016-03-08", 0.85], ["2016-03-08", 0.75], ["2016-03-08", 0.85], ["2016-03-08", 0.875], ["2016-03-09", 0.75], ["2016-03-09", 0.75], ["2016-03-09", 0.75], ["2016-03-09", 0.75], ["2016-03-09", 0.8], ["2016-03-09", 0.8], ["2016-03-09", 0.8], ["2016-03-09", 0.82], ["2016-03-09", 0.85], ["2016-03-10", 0.84], ["2016-03-10", 0.875], ["2016-03-10", 0.9], ["2016-03-10", 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["2016-06-05", 0.8], ["2016-06-05", 0.8], ["2016-06-05", 0.8]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/153 | True |
2019-01-01 | Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be president of Syria before 1 January 2019? | binary | Syrian President Bashar al-Assad still holds power despite a civil war that has lasted years and caused much destruction (<a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/10338256"target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/21/europe/assad-putin-sochi/index.html"target="_blank">CNN</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
Bashar al Assad remained in power at the question's end date. This question closed as "No" on 12/31/2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. | 2019-01-02 | gjopen | ["https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2018/02/14/controls-syria-al-assad-family-inner-circle-tycoons/", "https://www.cnn.com/2012/12/06/world/meast/bashar-al-assad---fast-facts/index.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/674689", "https://syria.liveuamap.com/", "https://www.albawaba.com/news/original-a-leader-without-a-people-some-syrian-alawites-want-to-overthrow-assad--1075092", "http://summitlake.com/wp_1commentary/?p=534", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/693786", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/21/europe/assad-putin-sochi/index.html", "https://www.defensenews.com/global/mideast-africa/2018/01/15/russia-and-us-engage-in-military-base-race-in-syria/", "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/16/russian-mercenaries-in-syria-buried-quietly-and-forgotten", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/putin-ally-said-to-be-in-touch-with-kremlin-assad-before-his-mercenaries-attacked-us-troops/2018/02/22/f4ef050c-1781-11e8-8b08-027a6ccb38eb_story.html?utm_term=.7cca7d7b4971", "https://sputniknews.com/russia/201802151061681322-gromov-afghanistan-soviet-war-myths/", "http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21735053-time-bashar-al-assads-side-regime-syria-closing-rebel?frsc=dg%7Ce", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/14/russia-exit-syria-vladimir-putin-military-tactical-move", "https://syriancivilwarmap.com/", "http://www.cnn.com/2018/01/15/politics/syria-army-threat-us-troops/index.html", "http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/assad-won-war-171101114949181.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:Syrian_Civil_War_detailed_map", "http://time.com/5159869/war-syria-entered-dangerous-new-phase/", "https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/01/turkey-shift-assad-syria-war-end.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_Civil_War", "https://order-order.com/2017/11/15/byline-outs-russian-troll-turns-glasgow-security-guard/", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-43107013", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_war#Since_1945"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-12-15 | 0.0 | [["2017-12-15", 0.035], ["2017-12-16", 0.04], ["2017-12-16", 0.15], ["2017-12-16", 0.25], ["2017-12-16", 0.14], ["2017-12-16", 0.1], ["2017-12-17", 0.05], ["2017-12-17", 0.05], ["2017-12-17", 0.05], ["2017-12-18", 0.05], ["2017-12-18", 0.05], ["2017-12-19", 0.05], ["2017-12-19", 0.05], ["2017-12-20", 0.05], ["2017-12-21", 0.03], ["2017-12-22", 0.04], ["2017-12-23", 0.04], ["2017-12-24", 0.05], ["2017-12-24", 0.05], ["2017-12-25", 0.05], ["2017-12-26", 0.05], ["2017-12-27", 0.05], ["2017-12-28", 0.05], ["2017-12-29", 0.05], ["2017-12-29", 0.05], ["2017-12-30", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 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2016-12-31 | Will six party talks on North Korea's nuclear weapons program resume before 1 January 2017? | binary | This question was closed on "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
The six party talks are a series of negotiations over dismantling North Korea's nuclear weapons program involving North Korea, South Korea, China, Japan, Russia, and the US (<a href = "http://www.cfr.org/proliferation/six-party-talks-north-koreas-nuclear-program/p13593" target = "_blank">Council on Foreign Relations</a>). In October 2015, leaders from China, South Korea, and Japan agreed to work toward resuming the talks which were last held in 2008 (<a href = "http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/65bb9728-808a-11e5-84dc-31c8b3b18e5f.html" target = "_blank">Financial Times</a>).
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2017-10-01 | Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?
| binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2017 and will be resolved in July 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Central African Republic from July 2017 through June 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this.
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<hr>
This question closed as 'No', with resolutions further detailed in <a href = "https://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2018/08/01/early-warning-project-question-resolutions-july-1-2017-june-30-2018/"target="_blank">this GJ Open blog post written by EWP</a>.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| 2019-12-09 | gjopen | ["http://allafrica.com/stories/201709100041.html", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/07/rising-violence-forces-40000-flee-car-east-170710175551526.html", "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/risk_assessments", "http://www.unocha.org/sites/unocha/files/statement-and-speech/ERC_USG%20Stephen%20O%27Brien%20Statement%20to%20the%20Memeber%20States%20on%20DRC%20and%20CAR%20-%2007Aug2017.pdf", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/08/30-civilians-killed-car-clashes-170809222933535.html", "https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/07/05/central-african-republic-civilians-targeted-war", "https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2017/sep/01/people-are-dying-violence-forces-aid-workers-out-of-central-african-republic", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/08/sees-early-warning-signs-genocide-car-170807215828039.html", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-13150040", "https://theglobalobservatory.org/2017/08/central-african-republic-united-nations-minusca/", "http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=57113#.WV1OdoTyvIU"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-06-30 | 0.0 | [["2017-06-30", 0.03], ["2017-06-30", 0.25], ["2017-07-01", 0.125], ["2017-07-01", 0.0], ["2017-07-01", 0.005], ["2017-07-01", 0.01], ["2017-07-01", 0.01], ["2017-07-01", 0.01], ["2017-07-02", 0.01], ["2017-07-02", 0.105], ["2017-07-02", 0.105], ["2017-07-03", 0.105], ["2017-07-03", 0.03], ["2017-07-03", 0.03], ["2017-07-04", 0.03], ["2017-07-04", 0.005], ["2017-07-04", 0.01], ["2017-07-04", 0.01], ["2017-07-04", 0.01], ["2017-07-05", 0.015], ["2017-07-05", 0.035], ["2017-07-05", 0.175], ["2017-07-05", 0.175], ["2017-07-05", 0.275], ["2017-07-05", 0.3], ["2017-07-06", 0.25], ["2017-07-06", 0.25], ["2017-07-07", 0.25], ["2017-07-07", 0.25], ["2017-07-08", 0.25], ["2017-07-09", 0.25], ["2017-07-09", 0.25], ["2017-07-09", 0.25], ["2017-07-10", 0.25], ["2017-07-11", 0.25], ["2017-07-11", 0.185], ["2017-07-11", 0.085], ["2017-07-11", 0.12], ["2017-07-11", 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["2017-09-22", 0.05], ["2017-09-22", 0.05], ["2017-09-22", 0.05], ["2017-09-22", 0.065], ["2017-09-22", 0.065], ["2017-09-22", 0.05], ["2017-09-22", 0.05], ["2017-09-23", 0.05], ["2017-09-23", 0.05], ["2017-09-23", 0.05], ["2017-09-23", 0.05], ["2017-09-23", 0.05], ["2017-09-23", 0.05], ["2017-09-24", 0.05], ["2017-09-24", 0.05], ["2017-09-25", 0.05], ["2017-09-25", 0.05], ["2017-09-26", 0.05], ["2017-09-26", 0.05], ["2017-09-27", 0.05], ["2017-09-27", 0.05], ["2017-09-28", 0.05], ["2017-09-28", 0.05], ["2017-09-29", 0.05], ["2017-09-29", 0.05], ["2017-09-30", 0.05], ["2017-09-30", 0.05], ["2017-10-01", 0.05]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/510 | True |
2018-01-01 | Will Thailand hold general elections before 1 January 2018? | binary | Thailand's government has promised to hold a general election in 2017, but it remains unclear how the elections will be conducted and how the Pheu Thai Party of former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra, ousted in a May 2014 coup, will factor into that process (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-thailand-politics-idUSKCN10K0CH" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/08/thailand-hold-elections-2017-junta-chief-160809084208337.html" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>).
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Thailand did not hold general elections. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
| 2018-01-02 | gjopen | ["http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/01/thailand-legislator-general-election-delayed-170102161345073.html", "http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/thailand-to-hold-general-election-in-mid-oct-2018-at-the-earliest-dec-2018-at-the", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-thailand-politics-idUSKBN15N19M", "http://thediplomat.com/2016/03/why-thailands-next-election-may-not-matter/", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/508456", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-thailand-king-constitution-idUSKBN15115D", "https://asia.nikkei.com/print/article/284940", "http://www.chinapost.com.tw/asia/2017/08/17/500055/p2/yingluck-verdict.htm", "http://www.benarnews.org/english/news/thai/coup-anniversary-05202017104732.html", "http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/2087022/thailands-junta-lift-political-party-ban-2018-elections", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-thailand-king-constitution-idUSKBN1780VB", "https://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politics/1379671/wissanu-dismisses-talk-of-poll-delay", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-thailand-politics-idUSKBN15N19M?il=0", "http://www.dawn.com/news/1311920", "http://asia.nikkei.com/print/article/229561", "http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politics/1226960/election-due-late-in-2018", "http://bangkok.coconuts.co/2017/02/09/thailands-next-election-exactly-one-year-deputy-pm", "http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/thailand-s-next-election-in-exactly-one-year-deputy-pm/3503030.html", "http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politics/1180297/roadmap-veers-off-course", "http://www.theborneopost.com/2017/01/06/thai-junta-says-elections-will-be-held-in-early-2018/", "http://www.phnompenhpost.com/national/nec-begin-registering-voters-it-missed-2017", "http://www.economist.com/news/asia/21719474-it-claims-crave-national-reconciliation-while-continuing-persecute-political-opponents", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-thailand-king-constitution-idUSKBN14X0IF?il=0", "http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politics/1255010/attacks-could-delay-election-pm-says", "https://aecnewstoday.com/2017/thailand-english-language-news-for-may-22-2017/#ixzz4hyKfHcPY"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-10-04 | 0.0 | [["2016-10-04", 0.65], ["2016-10-04", 0.8], ["2016-10-04", 0.61], ["2016-10-05", 0.65], ["2016-10-05", 0.645], ["2016-10-05", 0.56], ["2016-10-05", 0.605], ["2016-10-06", 0.715], ["2016-10-06", 0.65], ["2016-10-06", 0.64], ["2016-10-07", 0.5], ["2016-10-07", 0.625], ["2016-10-08", 0.765], ["2016-10-09", 0.8], ["2016-10-09", 0.8], ["2016-10-09", 0.8], ["2016-10-10", 0.8], ["2016-10-10", 0.8], ["2016-10-11", 0.8], ["2016-10-11", 0.8], ["2016-10-12", 0.8], ["2016-10-12", 0.8], ["2016-10-13", 0.74], ["2016-10-13", 0.75], ["2016-10-13", 0.75], ["2016-10-14", 0.69], ["2016-10-14", 0.675], ["2016-10-14", 0.67], ["2016-10-15", 0.67], ["2016-10-15", 0.67], 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