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2020-01-01 | Will Mick Mulvaney cease to be White House Chief of Staff before 1 January 2020? | binary | In December 2018, President Trump announced that Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Mulvaney would replace, in an acting capacity, outgoing Chief of Staff John Kelly (<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/14/politics/donald-trump-mick-mulvaney-chief-of-staff/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>). For the purposes of this question, Mulvaney will be considered the Chief of Staff whether in a permanent or acting capacity (<a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/11/mick-mulvaney-acting-chief-staff-1098627" target="_blank">Politico</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>. </p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>
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2015-12-31 | Will a trilateral meeting take place between Chinese President Xi Jinping, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and South Korean President Park Geun-hye before 1 January 2016? | binary | A trilateral meeting of leaders from China, Japan, and South Korea was held annually from 2008 to 2012, but regional tensions led to its cancellation; officials have recently discussed resuming a formal meeting at the leader level:
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-27/south-korea-s-park-eyes-china-japan-summit-after-kim-showdown www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/20/us-japan-southkorea-china-idUSKBN0P003S20150620
asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/International-Relations/Japan-China-South-Korea-consider-autumn-summit | 2016-01-10 | gjopen | ["http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/02/world/asia/china-japan-and-south-korea-conduct-first-trilateral-meeting-in-3-years.html", "http://thediplomat.com/2015/11/with-trilateral-summit-china-japan-korea-cooperation-completely-restored/", "http://www.dw.com/en/china-japan-south-korea-leaders-to-revive-trilateral-summit/a-18814648", "http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015-11/18/c_134830635.htm", "http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/01/us-southkorea-japan-china-idUSKCN0SQ1GV20151101#ga357hG12V5G7Ejk.97", "http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/26/us-china-japan-southkorea-idUSKCN0SK0L620151026", "http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/01/asia/china-korea-japan-talks/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/10/a-super-long-picky-post/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/34491", "http://mainichi.jp/english/english/newsselect/news/20151112p2g00m0dm067000c.html", "http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/11/01/national/politics-diplomacy/east-asia-leaders-agree-revive-annual-trilateral-summit/#.VktvTHarTIV", "http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015-10/26/c_134751534.htm", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/visit-by-south-korean-president-to-washington-highlights-obamas-foreign-policy-challenge-in-asia/2015/10/15/6f818ef4-734a-11e5-9cbb-790369643cf9_story.html", "http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/11/01/national/politics-diplomacy/east-asia-leaders-agree-revive-annual-trilateral-summit/#.Vjay64TQb0d", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/12/super-friday-night/", "http://thediplomat.com/2015/11/china-holds-bilateral-talks-with-south-korea-japan/", "http://world.kbs.co.kr/english/news/news_Po_detail.htm?No=114611", "http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/10/26/national/politics-diplomacy/suga-denies-seoul-pushing-for-abe-comfort-women-apology-at-trilateral-summit/#.Vi4Q-6RZTqB", "http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2015/10/116_188966.html", "http://flip.it/fRYhK", "http://www.manilatimes.net/chinas-xi-to-attend-apec-summit-in-manila/228075/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ut0tLsHEoKc", "http://m.koreatimes.co.kr/phone/news/view.jsp?req_newsidx=189650", "http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/02/world/asia/china-japan-and-south-korea-conduct-first-trilateral-meeting-in-3-years.html?_r=0", "http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/10/28/asia-pacific/politics-diplomacy-asia-pacific/seoul-tokyo-still-bickering-days-three-way-summit-china/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2015-09-01 | 0.0 | [["2015-09-01", 0.25], ["2015-09-02", 0.25], ["2015-09-02", 0.15], ["2015-09-02", 0.175], ["2015-09-02", 0.175], ["2015-09-02", 0.175], ["2015-09-02", 0.175], ["2015-09-02", 0.175], ["2015-09-02", 0.36], ["2015-09-02", 0.455], ["2015-09-02", 0.55], ["2015-09-02", 0.55], ["2015-09-03", 0.555], ["2015-09-03", 0.455], ["2015-09-04", 0.43], ["2015-09-04", 0.5], 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2017-12-29 | Will Iran launch a medium, intermediate, or intercontinental range ballistic missile or a satellite between 29 November 2017 and 29 December 2017? | binary | The Trump administration declined to certify the Iranian nuclear deal, citing concerns about Iran's missile program (<a href = "https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/10/iran-deal-trump-next/542379/"target="_blank">The Atlantic</a>, <a href = "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-missiles-diplomacy/iran-open-to-talks-over-its-ballistic-missile-programme-sources-idUSKBN1CB22P"target="_blank">Reuters</a>). Examples of previous launches include the September 2017 and March 2016 ballistic missile tests (<a href = "http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/23/middleeast/iran-ballistic-missile-test/index.html"target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35752974"target="_blank">BBC</a>) and the July 2017 satellite launch (<a href = "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-satellite/u-s-says-iran-rocket-test-breaches-u-n-resolution-idUSKBN1AC1YY"target="_blank">Reuters</a>). For more information on ballistic missiles of various ranges see <a href = "https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/missiles"target="_blank">Arms Control</a>.
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<hr>
Iran did not launch a medium, intermediate, or intercontinental range ballistic missile or a satellite between 29 November 2017 and 29 December 2017. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 29 December 2017.
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<hr> | 2018-01-04 | gjopen | ["https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-germany/france-germany-want-iran-to-reverse-ballistic-missile-program-idUSKBN1DY1MY", "http://www.iranwatch.org/our-publications/weapon-program-background-report/iran-missile-milestones-1985-2017", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-42412729", "https://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/23/middleeast/iran-ballistic-missile-test/index.html", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-iran-arms/in-first-u-s-presents-its-evidence-of-iran-weaponry-from-yemen-idUSKBN1E82J6"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-11-28 | 0.0 | [["2017-11-29", 0.5], ["2017-11-29", 0.05], ["2017-11-29", 0.05], ["2017-11-29", 0.025], ["2017-11-29", 0.09], ["2017-11-29", 0.18], ["2017-11-30", 0.18], ["2017-11-30", 0.17], ["2017-11-30", 0.155], ["2017-11-30", 0.08], ["2017-11-30", 0.01], ["2017-11-30", 0.01], ["2017-11-30", 0.01], ["2017-11-30", 0.01], ["2017-11-30", 0.01], ["2017-11-30", 0.015], ["2017-11-30", 0.015], 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2016-12-31 | Before 2017, will Google announce that it will conduct public testing of its fully autonomous vehicles in a US city? | binary | This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016.
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<hr>
Since 2014, Google has focused on developing a fully autonomous vehicle that can "operate safely and autonomously without requiring human intervention" and which "won't have a steering wheel, accelerator pedal, or brake pedal… because they don’t need them" (<a href="https://www.google.com/selfdrivingcar/" target="_blank">Google Self-Driving Car Project</a>, <a href="https://googleblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/just-press-go-designing-self-driving.html" target="_blank">Google Official Blog</a>, <a href="https://plus.google.com/+selfdrivingcar" target="_blank">Google Plus</a>). Public testing refers to testing that allows people from the general public to use Google's Cars. Uber's testing of its autonomous cars in Pittsburgh is an example of public testing (<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-08-18/uber-s-first-self-driving-fleet-arrives-in-pittsburgh-this-month-is06r7on" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/11/technology/no-driver-bring-it-on-how-pittsburgh-became-ubers-testing-ground.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>). Google is currently testing its self driving cars in Kirkland, WA, Mountain View, CA, Phoenix, AZ, and Austin, TX, but those tests are not open to the public.
<img src="https://c3.staticflickr.com/6/5592/15104006386_e92bfc87f4_k.jpg" height=200>
<a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/smoothgroover22/15104006386" target="_blank">smoothgroover22 on flickr</a>
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| 2017-01-05 | gjopen | ["https://www.google.com/selfdrivingcar/", "http://easymile.com/", "http://www.upi.com/Business_News/2016/09/13/Volvo-builds-its-first-self-driving-car/1181473763575/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/333323", "http://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=201520160AB1592", "http://www.rand.org/search.html?query=self+driving+cars&sortby=relevance", "http://www.rand.org/blog/2016/09/when-will-we-know-self-driving-cars-are-safe.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2", "http://www.pocket-lint.com/news/139769-what-is-google-waymo-and-when-can-you-expect-the-first-cars", "http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1478.html", "http://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/car-technology/news/a31072/google-autonomous-cars-involved-in-wreck-that-hospitalized-driver/", "http://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201520160AB1592", "http://www.mercurynews.com/2016/07/22/driverless-shuttles-coming-to-east-bay-to-be-tested/", "http://www.theverge.com/2016/10/5/13164406/google-self-driving-car-2-million-miles-alphabet-x", "http://www.autoblog.com/2016/05/25/google-michigan-self-driving-vehicle-test-facility/", "http://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/look-ma-no-driver-new-california-law-allows-driverless-vehicles-n657301", "https://www.inverse.com/article/21608-california-governor-oks-autonomous-car-tests-public-roads", "http://www.autoworldnews.com/articles/25152/20161230/why-googles-waymo-projects-latest-self-driving-car-great-idea.htm", "https://newsroom.uber.com/pittsburgh-self-driving-uber/", "https://medium.com/waymo/a-first-look-at-our-waymo-fully-self-driving-chrysler-pacifica-hybrid-minivans-5677e5e67750#.ut3pgxaj5", "http://www.theverge.com/2016/2/29/11134344/google-self-driving-car-crash-report", "http://fortune.com/2016/09/25/crash-google-self-driving-car/", "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#etiquette", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/driverless-cars-hit-british-streets-landmark-trial-005545714.html", "http://fortune.com/2016/09/29/california-law-test-autonomous-shuttle/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-09-16 | 0.0 | [["2016-09-16", 0.5], ["2016-09-16", 0.2], ["2016-09-16", 0.305], ["2016-09-16", 0.555], ["2016-09-16", 0.55], ["2016-09-17", 0.7], ["2016-09-17", 0.4], ["2016-09-17", 0.46], ["2016-09-17", 0.52], ["2016-09-17", 0.435], ["2016-09-17", 0.35], ["2016-09-17", 0.52], ["2016-09-17", 0.52], ["2016-09-17", 0.435], ["2016-09-17", 0.435], ["2016-09-17", 0.38], ["2016-09-17", 0.505], ["2016-09-18", 0.555], ["2016-09-18", 0.6], ["2016-09-18", 0.51], ["2016-09-18", 0.53], ["2016-09-18", 0.46], ["2016-09-18", 0.46], ["2016-09-18", 0.51], ["2016-09-18", 0.55], ["2016-09-18", 0.575], ["2016-09-18", 0.58], ["2016-09-18", 0.58], ["2016-09-18", 0.305], ["2016-09-18", 0.43], ["2016-09-18", 0.35], ["2016-09-18", 0.31], ["2016-09-19", 0.33], ["2016-09-19", 0.375], 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2018-06-22 | In Carpenter v. United States, will the Supreme Court rule that investigators' warrantless use of Timothy Carpenter's cellphone records was unconstitutional? | binary | In 2016, U.S. Court of Appeals for the 6th Circuit <a href = "http://caselaw.findlaw.com/us-6th-circuit/1731662.html"target="_blank">ruled</a> that prosecutors legally used historical cellular phone location records obtained without a warrant to convict two men, Timothy Carpenter and Timothy Sanders, of armed robbery. Those men <a href = "http://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/carpenter-v-united-states-2/"target="_blank">contend</a> that the seizure of those records without a warrant was unconstitutional. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its current term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as no.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
The Supreme Court did rule that investigators' warrantless use of Timothy Carpenter's cellphone records was unconstitutional. This question closed as "yes" with an end date of 22 June 2018 (<a href = "https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/17pdf/16-402_h315.pdf"target="_blank">The Supreme Court of the United States</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. | 2018-06-25 | gjopen | ["https://www.thecipherbrief.com/article/exclusive/north-america/fisa-can-fixed-without-risking-american-lives", "https://www.aclu.org/legal-document/united-states-v-carpenter-reply-brief-petitioner", "http://www.scotusblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/16-402-cert-petition.pdf", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/678289", "https://www.thecipherbrief.com/column/cyber-advisor/remembering-civil-liberties-reforming-foreign-surveillance", "http://www.scotusblog.com/2017/07/justices-return-cellphones-fourth-amendment-plain-english/", "https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/11pdf/10-1259.pdf", "https://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21731880-carpenter-v-united-states-shows-they-are-unsure-about-how-do-so-supreme-courts", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-mobilephones/u-s-supreme-court-weighs-major-digital-privacy-case-idUSKBN1DT0LQ", "https://www.lawfareblog.com/best-way-rule-carpenter-or-how-expand-fourth-amendment-protections-without-making-mess", "https://apps.oyez.org/player/#/roberts8/oral_argument_audio/24396", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2017/06/15/third-party-rights-and-the-carpenter-cell-site-case/?utm_term=.a5479f33b51e", "http://cyberlaw.stanford.edu/blog/2017/08/why-internet-cell-phone-carpenter-v-us", "https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/11/bipartisanship-supreme-court/547124/", "https://www.oyez.org/cases/2011/10-1259", "http://www.scotusblog.com/2017/03/gorsuch-fourth-amendment/", "http://cyberlaw.stanford.edu/blog/2017/11/practical-impact-carpenter-v-united-states", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Jones_(2012", "https://ballotpedia.org/Carpenter_v._United_States?utm_source=Iterable&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=DailyBrew", "https://www.scpr.org/programs/airtalk/2017/11/29/60432/scotus-tackles-digital-privacy-in-landmark-case-in/", "https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcripts/2017/16-402_d1o2.pdf", "https://www.oyez.org/cases/2017/16-402", "https://transition.fcc.gov/pshs/911/Apps%20Wrkshp%202015/911_Help_SMS_WhitePaper0515.pdf", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_H._Easterbrook", "https://scholar.google.com/scholar_case?case=984582747310918249&q=%22a+contrary+line+of+argument%22&hl=en&as_sdt=4006"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-11-03 | 1.0 | [["2017-11-03", 0.15], ["2017-11-03", 0.35], ["2017-11-03", 0.25], ["2017-11-03", 0.25], ["2017-11-03", 0.14], ["2017-11-03", 0.15], ["2017-11-03", 0.215], ["2017-11-03", 0.25], ["2017-11-03", 0.29], ["2017-11-03", 0.625], ["2017-11-04", 0.6], ["2017-11-04", 0.635], ["2017-11-04", 0.65], ["2017-11-04", 0.65], 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2017-07-01 | Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan? | binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Afghanistan from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ Open</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
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<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on other questions in this challenge: <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/16-early-warning-project-2017-2018"target = "_blank">Early Warning Project 2017 - 2018</a></sub>
This question was closed as no (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/ewp"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| 2019-12-05 | gjopen | ["https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/27/kabul-explosion-hours-after-kunar-suicide-bombing-afghan", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/02/afghan-civilian-casualties-2016-170206062807210.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-afghanistan-idUSKBN1941Y1", "https://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/crt/2015/257526.htm"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-03-31 | 0.0 | [["2017-03-31", 0.15], ["2017-03-31", 0.42], ["2017-03-31", 0.36], ["2017-03-31", 0.4], ["2017-03-31", 0.75], ["2017-03-31", 1.0], ["2017-03-31", 1.0], ["2017-03-31", 0.575], ["2017-03-31", 0.575], ["2017-03-31", 0.5], ["2017-04-01", 0.45], ["2017-04-01", 0.45], ["2017-04-01", 0.575], ["2017-04-01", 0.575], ["2017-04-01", 0.54], ["2017-04-01", 0.6], ["2017-04-01", 0.6], ["2017-04-01", 0.575], ["2017-04-01", 0.575], ["2017-04-01", 0.575], ["2017-04-02", 0.575], ["2017-04-02", 0.55], ["2017-04-02", 0.55], ["2017-04-02", 0.46], ["2017-04-02", 0.455], ["2017-04-02", 0.34], 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2018-07-20 | Before 20 July 2018, will Audi sell or lease a motor vehicle with Traffic Jam Pilot?
| binary | The Society of Automotive Engineers uses six levels (zero through five) to classify the level of autonomy in vehicles (<a href = "https://www.caranddriver.com/features/path-to-autonomy-self-driving-car-levels-0-to-5-explained-feature"target="_blank">Car and Driver</a>). Within the ongoing debate on the best development path for autonomous vehicle technology, the viability and safety of vehicles with Level 3 autonomy in contrast to Level 4 autonomy is seen as most salient (<a href = "https://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21722628-forget-hype-about-autonomous-vehicles-being-around-cornerreal-driverless-cars-will"target="_blank">The Economist</a>). As such, different companies are advancing different strategies (<a href = "https://www.inverse.com/article/28964-ford-chief-av-engineer-jackie-dimarco-autonomous-vehicles"target="_blank">Inverse</a>). Audi's development of Level 3 autonomy capabilities with its Traffic Jam Pilot make it a pivotal case to watch in the context of this debate (<a href = "https://www.audi-mediacenter.com/en/techday-piloted-driving-the-traffic-jam-pilot-in-the-new-audi-a8-9276"target="_blank">Audi</a>, <a href = "https://www.pocket-lint.com/cars/news/audi/142455-audi-a8-with-ai-how-audi-traffic-jam-pilot-autonomous-driving-tech-works"target="_blank">Pocket-Lint</a>, <a href="https://practicalmotoring.com.au/car-news/level-3-autonomy-audi-others-have-the-machines-finally-risen/" target="_blank">Practical Motoring</a>).
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<hr>
| 2018-07-24 | gjopen | ["https://blog.caranddriver.com/traffic-jamming-in-the-2019-audi-a8-we-let-automated-driving-tech-take-the-wheel", "https://blog.caranddriver.com/traffic-jamming-in-the-2019-audi-a8-we-let-automated-driving-tech-take-the-wheel/", "https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/2017-audi-a8-revealed-brands-most-high-tech-model-yet", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/680174", "https://www.cars.com/articles/audi-a7-tech-takes-off-for-2019-1420698807858/", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/882-before-20-july-2018-will-audi-sell-or-lease-a-motor-vehicle-with-traffic-jam-pilot#"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2018-01-24 | 0.0 | [["2018-01-24", 0.05], ["2018-01-24", 0.435], ["2018-01-24", 0.55], ["2018-01-25", 0.2], ["2018-01-25", 0.175], ["2018-01-25", 0.1], ["2018-01-25", 0.12], ["2018-01-25", 0.065], ["2018-01-25", 0.07], ["2018-01-26", 0.11], ["2018-01-26", 0.06], ["2018-01-26", 0.05], ["2018-01-27", 0.05], ["2018-01-27", 0.03], ["2018-01-27", 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2017-12-29 | Before 29 December 2017, will it be announced that Chinese troops are deploying to the disputed border region between Eritrea and Djibouti? | binary | As aggression escalates in the Djibouti-Eritrea conflict over the Dumeria Mountain and Island, China has offered to assist in mediation or peacekeeping if requested (<a href="http://venturesafrica.com/heres-how-the-international-community-reacts-to-the-eritrea-djibouti-border-dispute/" target="_blank">Ventures Africa</a>, <a href=" https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-consider-sending-troops-djibouti-eritrea-135732328.html" target="_blank">Yahoo! News</a>, <a href="http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2103947/china-offers-mediate-djibouti-eritrea-border-row-it" target="_blank">South China Morning Post</a>, <a href="http://www.news.com.au/world/africa/tiny-african-country-becomes-playground-for-world-super-powers/news-story/0fa72ddc2df6efc9ac437d8681977fd6" target="_blank">News.com</a>).
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It was not announced that Chinese troops are deploying to the disputed border region between Eritrea and Djibouti. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
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<hr>
| 2018-01-04 | gjopen | ["https://sputniknews.com/africa/201707261055901392-china-wants-to-resolve-djibouti-border-conflict/", "https://www.usip.org/publications/2016/07/chinas-troop-contributions-un-peacekeeping", "https://messengerafrica.com/2017/06/22/factbox-understanding-the-eritrea-djibouti-border-dispute/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/610161", "http://peacekeeping.un.org/en/security-council-pledges-support-regional-push-to-revive-south-sudans-peace-pact", "http://www.africanews.com/2017/07/04/djibouti-requests-au-presence-along-disputed-border-with-eritrea/", "http://eng.chinamil.com.cn/view/2017-11/03/content_7812092.htm", "http://venturesafrica.com/heres-how-the-international-community-reacts-to-the-eritrea-djibouti-border-dispute/", "http://www.africanews.com/2017/11/11/eritrea-backing-armed-groups-against-ethiopia-and-djibouti-un-experts/", "http://www.newsweek.com/china-military-base-live-fire-djibouti-africa-670588", "https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/", "https://intpolicydigest.org/2017/08/11/china-military-base-djibouti/", "https://raddingtonreport.com/djibouti-struggle-against-terrorism/", "http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2120754/chinese-troops-two-day-drill-prepare-peacekeeping", "https://travel.state.gov/content/passports/en/alertswarnings/eritrea-travel-warning.html", "http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2017-10/27/content_33791956.htm", "http://opinion.huanqiu.com/editorial/2017-07/10966656.html", "https://www.un.int/djibouti/news/his-excellency-mr-mohamed-siad-doualeh-addresses-security-council-situation-somalia-and-0", "http://www.un.org/en/peacekeeping/operations/newoperation.shtml", "http://eng.chinamil.com.cn/view/2017-11/07/content_7815184.htm", "https://qz.com/1052857/chinas-wolf-warrior-2-in-war-ravaged-africa-gives-the-white-savior-complex-a-whole-new-meaning/", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/11/eritrea-opposition-security-forces-kill-28-protesters-171101171043467.html", 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2018-06-11 | In Husted v. A. Philip Randolph Institute, will the Supreme Court rule that Ohio's supplemental process for voter registration list-maintenance is legal? | binary | In 2016, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 6th Circuit <a href = "http://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/husted-v-philip-randolph-institute"target="_blank">ruled</a> that the state of Ohio's <a href = "https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/05/supreme-court-ohio-voting/528573"target="_blank">supplemental process </a> for purging the names of inactive voters from its rolls was illegal because it violated the National Voter Registration Act of 1993 and the Help America Vote Act of 2002. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its current term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as no. Rulings about the content of confirmation notices will not affect the resolution of the question.
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<hr>
The <a href = "https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/17pdf/16-980_f2q3.pdf"target="_blank">Supreme Court</a> ruled that Ohio’s supplemental process for voter registration list-maintenance is legal. This question closed as "Yes" with an end date of 11 June 2018.
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| 2018-06-12 | gjopen | ["https://www.gjopen.com/questions/680-in-husted-v-a-philip-randolph-institute-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-ohio-s-supplemental-process-for-voter-registration-list-maintenance-is-legal/www.jstor.org/stable/1685855", "https://www.justice.gov/sites/default/files/briefs/2017/08/07/16-980_husted_v_randolph_institute_ac_merits.pdf", "https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/05/supreme-court-ohio-voting/528573/", "http://www.hangley.com/news/us-supreme-court-decisions-analysis", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3EYU3VTI3IU", "http://www.scotusblog.com/2018/01/argument-analysis-ohio-voter-registration-practices-safe/https://apnews.com/84b18b8ffab045c0b5da62ccc24bf279/Supreme-Court-appears-sympathetic-to-Ohio-voter-purge-effort?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=AP_Politics", "http://ellisp.github.io/blog/2017/02/26/appeal-circuits", "http://www.scotusblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/16-980-cert-petition.pdf", "https://apnews.com/84b18b8ffab045c0b5da62ccc24bf279/Supreme-Court-appears-sympathetic-to-Ohio-voter-purge-effort?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=AP_Politics", "http://www.scotusblog.com/2018/01/argument-analysis-ohio-voter-registration-practices-safe/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ikjmz_SlGhg", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=khrx-zrG460", "http://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/husted-v-philip-randolph-institute/", "https://www.oyez.org/cases/2017/16-980", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-election/divided-supreme-court-may-allow-ohio-voter-purge-policy-idUSKBN1EZ0FK", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/680556", "http://www.gjoopen.com/", "http://www.jstor.org/stable/1685855", "https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/10/supreme-court-ohio-voter-purges-333703", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlywcuw-1TU", "http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-15/moment-gary-cohn-realized-his-entire-economic-policy-disaster", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/680-in-husted-v-a-philip-randolph-institute-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-ohio-s-supplemental-process-for-voter-registration-list-maintenance-is-legal/www.gjoopen.com", "https://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/630/things-i-mean-to-know?act=1#play"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-11-03 | 1.0 | [["2017-11-03", 0.65], ["2017-11-03", 0.85], ["2017-11-03", 0.735], ["2017-11-03", 0.56], ["2017-11-03", 0.525], ["2017-11-03", 0.55], ["2017-11-03", 0.5], ["2017-11-03", 0.5], ["2017-11-03", 0.525], ["2017-11-03", 0.45], ["2017-11-03", 0.525], ["2017-11-03", 0.55], ["2017-11-03", 0.55], ["2017-11-03", 0.575], ["2017-11-03", 0.475], ["2017-11-03", 0.575], ["2017-11-03", 0.55], ["2017-11-04", 0.6], ["2017-11-04", 0.55], ["2017-11-04", 0.375], ["2017-11-04", 0.375], ["2017-11-04", 0.325], ["2017-11-04", 0.4], ["2017-11-04", 0.4], ["2017-11-04", 0.4], ["2017-11-04", 0.4], ["2017-11-04", 0.4], ["2017-11-04", 0.4], 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["2018-01-27", 0.345], ["2018-01-27", 0.335], ["2018-01-29", 0.335], ["2018-01-29", 0.335], ["2018-01-29", 0.34], ["2018-01-30", 0.33], ["2018-01-30", 0.34], ["2018-01-30", 0.34], ["2018-01-30", 0.34], ["2018-01-30", 0.34], ["2018-01-30", 0.34], ["2018-01-31", 0.345], ["2018-01-31", 0.335], ["2018-01-31", 0.335], ["2018-02-01", 0.33], ["2018-02-01", 0.33], ["2018-02-01", 0.33], ["2018-02-01", 0.34], ["2018-02-01", 0.34], ["2018-02-01", 0.335], ["2018-02-01", 0.315], ["2018-02-01", 0.315], ["2018-02-02", 0.335], ["2018-02-02", 0.345], ["2018-02-03", 0.34], ["2018-02-03", 0.35], ["2018-02-03", 0.35], ["2018-02-04", 0.345], ["2018-02-04", 0.345], ["2018-02-04", 0.335], ["2018-02-04", 0.335], ["2018-02-05", 0.335], ["2018-02-05", 0.34], ["2018-02-05", 0.35], ["2018-02-05", 0.35], ["2018-02-06", 0.35], ["2018-02-06", 0.35], ["2018-02-07", 0.35], ["2018-02-07", 0.35], ["2018-02-07", 0.35], ["2018-02-08", 0.35], ["2018-02-09", 0.35], ["2018-02-09", 0.35], ["2018-02-10", 0.35], ["2018-02-11", 0.35], ["2018-02-12", 0.35], ["2018-02-12", 0.35], ["2018-02-12", 0.35], ["2018-02-12", 0.35], ["2018-02-12", 0.35], ["2018-02-12", 0.35], ["2018-02-13", 0.35], ["2018-02-13", 0.35], ["2018-02-16", 0.375], ["2018-02-16", 0.35], ["2018-02-16", 0.4], ["2018-02-17", 0.41], ["2018-02-17", 0.435], ["2018-02-17", 0.45], ["2018-02-17", 0.45], ["2018-02-17", 0.45], ["2018-02-17", 0.45], ["2018-02-17", 0.45], ["2018-02-17", 0.45], ["2018-02-17", 0.45], ["2018-02-17", 0.45], ["2018-02-17", 0.45], ["2018-02-17", 0.48], ["2018-02-18", 0.465], ["2018-02-18", 0.465], ["2018-02-20", 0.465], ["2018-02-20", 0.45], ["2018-02-20", 0.48], ["2018-02-20", 0.48], ["2018-02-20", 0.48], ["2018-02-21", 0.49], ["2018-02-21", 0.5], ["2018-02-23", 0.5], ["2018-02-24", 0.5], ["2018-02-24", 0.5], ["2018-02-24", 0.5], ["2018-02-26", 0.5], ["2018-02-27", 0.5], ["2018-02-27", 0.5], ["2018-02-28", 0.5], ["2018-02-28", 0.5], ["2018-02-28", 0.5], ["2018-03-01", 0.5], ["2018-03-02", 0.5], ["2018-03-03", 0.5], ["2018-03-03", 0.5], ["2018-03-03", 0.5], ["2018-03-03", 0.5], ["2018-03-03", 0.55], ["2018-03-03", 0.55], ["2018-03-04", 0.55], ["2018-03-04", 0.575], ["2018-03-05", 0.575], ["2018-03-07", 0.575], ["2018-03-11", 0.575], ["2018-03-12", 0.55], ["2018-03-12", 0.55], ["2018-03-14", 0.55], ["2018-03-15", 0.55], ["2018-03-16", 0.55], ["2018-03-17", 0.55], ["2018-03-18", 0.575], ["2018-03-19", 0.575], ["2018-03-20", 0.575], ["2018-03-25", 0.575], ["2018-03-26", 0.575], ["2018-03-29", 0.6], ["2018-03-29", 0.6], ["2018-03-29", 0.55], ["2018-03-31", 0.575], ["2018-04-01", 0.6], ["2018-04-01", 0.6], ["2018-04-01", 0.6], ["2018-04-02", 0.6], ["2018-04-05", 0.6], ["2018-04-05", 0.6], ["2018-04-06", 0.6], ["2018-04-06", 0.6], ["2018-04-07", 0.6], ["2018-04-07", 0.6], ["2018-04-08", 0.6], ["2018-04-09", 0.6], ["2018-04-16", 0.6], ["2018-04-19", 0.6], ["2018-04-20", 0.61], ["2018-04-20", 0.61], ["2018-04-20", 0.61], ["2018-04-25", 0.61], ["2018-04-26", 0.61], ["2018-04-27", 0.61], ["2018-04-30", 0.61], ["2018-05-01", 0.61], ["2018-05-01", 0.61], ["2018-05-03", 0.63], ["2018-05-03", 0.63], ["2018-05-05", 0.63], ["2018-05-10", 0.63], ["2018-05-12", 0.64], ["2018-05-12", 0.64], ["2018-05-12", 0.64], ["2018-05-14", 0.64], ["2018-05-14", 0.64], ["2018-05-15", 0.64], ["2018-05-15", 0.65], ["2018-05-15", 0.65], ["2018-05-16", 0.65], ["2018-05-17", 0.65], ["2018-05-21", 0.65], ["2018-05-22", 0.65], ["2018-05-22", 0.65], ["2018-05-23", 0.65], ["2018-05-24", 0.65], ["2018-05-26", 0.65], ["2018-05-26", 0.65], ["2018-05-27", 0.65], ["2018-05-27", 0.65], ["2018-05-28", 0.65], ["2018-05-30", 0.65], ["2018-05-31", 0.65], ["2018-06-01", 0.65], ["2018-06-04", 0.65], ["2018-06-05", 0.65], ["2018-06-06", 0.65], ["2018-06-07", 0.65], ["2018-06-08", 0.65], ["2018-06-11", 0.65], ["2018-06-11", 0.65], ["2018-06-11", 0.65], ["2018-06-11", 0.65], ["2018-06-11", 0.65], ["2018-06-11", 0.65]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/680 | True |
2017-05-09 | Will Moon Jae-in win South Korea's upcoming presidential election? | binary | South Koreans will go to the polls on 9 May 2017 to elect their new president (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/15/world/asia/south-korea-election-park-geun-hye.html?_r=0"target="_blank">NY Times</a>). Moon Jae-in ran for president in 2012, losing narrowly to Park Geun-hye. He is now the presumed front runner (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/10/world/asia/south-korea-liberals-impeachment.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-china-idUSKBN16L0J7"target="_blank">Reuters</a>).
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<hr>
This question was closed as "yes" with an end date of 9 May 2017 (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/09/world/asia/south-korea-election-president-moon-jae-in.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>).
| 2017-05-11 | gjopen | ["http://www.barrons.com/articles/south-korea-election-odds-of-moon-victory-raised-to-80-1493687566", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Chancellors_of_Germany", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Korean_presidential_election,_2017", "http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/south-korea-presidential-front-runner-widens-lead", "https://www.predictit.org/Market/3064/Who-will-win-the-South-Korean-presidential-election", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-39848999", "http://beyondparallel.csis.org/polls-quiet-predata-signals-take-the-pulse-of-the-south-korean-electorate/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-election-moon-foreignpolic-idUSKBN1810PV", "https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=de&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.newstown.co.kr%2Fnews%2FarticleView.html%3Fidxno%3D284947&sandbox=1", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Korean_presidential_election,_2017#2017_May", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_German_federal_election,_2017", "https://www.predictit.org/Market/2461/Who-will-be-elected-German-chancellor-in-2017"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-05-02 | 1.0 | [["2017-05-02", 0.95], ["2017-05-02", 1.0], ["2017-05-02", 0.99], ["2017-05-02", 0.985], ["2017-05-02", 0.965], ["2017-05-02", 0.96], ["2017-05-02", 0.96], ["2017-05-02", 0.97], ["2017-05-02", 0.975], ["2017-05-02", 0.975], ["2017-05-02", 0.975], ["2017-05-02", 0.97], ["2017-05-03", 0.98], ["2017-05-03", 0.985], ["2017-05-03", 0.985], ["2017-05-03", 0.99], ["2017-05-03", 0.99], ["2017-05-03", 0.99], ["2017-05-03", 0.99], ["2017-05-03", 0.99], ["2017-05-03", 0.995], ["2017-05-03", 1.0], ["2017-05-03", 1.0], ["2017-05-03", 1.0], ["2017-05-03", 1.0], ["2017-05-03", 1.0], ["2017-05-03", 1.0], ["2017-05-03", 1.0], ["2017-05-04", 1.0], ["2017-05-04", 1.0], ["2017-05-04", 1.0], ["2017-05-04", 1.0], ["2017-05-04", 1.0], ["2017-05-04", 1.0], ["2017-05-04", 1.0], ["2017-05-04", 1.0], ["2017-05-04", 1.0], ["2017-05-04", 1.0], ["2017-05-04", 1.0], ["2017-05-04", 1.0], ["2017-05-04", 1.0], ["2017-05-04", 1.0], ["2017-05-05", 1.0], ["2017-05-05", 1.0], ["2017-05-05", 1.0], ["2017-05-05", 1.0], ["2017-05-05", 1.0], ["2017-05-05", 1.0], ["2017-05-05", 0.99], ["2017-05-05", 0.99], ["2017-05-06", 0.995], ["2017-05-06", 0.995], ["2017-05-06", 0.995], ["2017-05-06", 0.995], ["2017-05-06", 1.0], ["2017-05-06", 1.0], ["2017-05-06", 1.0], ["2017-05-06", 1.0], ["2017-05-06", 0.99], ["2017-05-06", 0.995], ["2017-05-06", 0.995], ["2017-05-06", 0.995], ["2017-05-06", 0.99], ["2017-05-07", 0.99], ["2017-05-07", 0.98], ["2017-05-07", 0.98], ["2017-05-07", 0.98], ["2017-05-07", 0.975], ["2017-05-07", 0.975], ["2017-05-07", 0.975], ["2017-05-07", 0.975], ["2017-05-07", 0.975], ["2017-05-07", 0.98], ["2017-05-07", 0.98], ["2017-05-07", 0.98], ["2017-05-08", 0.975], ["2017-05-08", 0.98], ["2017-05-08", 0.98], ["2017-05-08", 0.98], ["2017-05-08", 0.98], ["2017-05-08", 0.99], ["2017-05-08", 0.98], ["2017-05-08", 0.985], ["2017-05-08", 0.985], ["2017-05-09", 0.99], ["2017-05-09", 0.985], ["2017-05-09", 0.985], ["2017-05-09", 0.985], ["2017-05-09", 0.98], ["2017-05-09", 0.98], ["2017-05-09", 0.98]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/479 | True |
2017-02-07 | Will a U.S. state enact a soda tax in 2017? | binary | This question was closed as "yes" with an end date of 7 February 2017. Arkansas' governor signed into law an increased tax on soda (<a href = "http://www.ledger-enquirer.com/news/business/article131254869.html"target="_blank">Ledger Enquirer</a>, <a href = "http://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2017/feb/08/governor-signs-into-law-military-pensio/?f=news-arkansas"target="_blank">Arkansas Online</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
With the legal challenges of municipal soda taxes fading away (<a href = "http://www.philly.com/philly/news/20161220_Soda_tax_lawsuit_dismissed.html" target = "_blank">Philly.com</a>, <a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-soda-tax-idUSKBN1341FL" target = "_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/ct-cook-county-soda-pop-tax-vote-met-1111-20161110-story.html"target = "_blank"> Chicago Tribune</a>), some states are considering similar measures (<a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/26/well/eat/as-soda-taxes-gain-wider-acceptance-your-bottle-may-be-next.html" target = "_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2016/11/30/massachusetts-soda-tax-latest"target = "_blank">WBUR</a>, <a href = "http://www.pennlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/09/could_something_like_philadelp.html"target = "_blank"> PennLive</a>). The tax does not need to take effect for a "yes" resolution.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/373" target = "_blank"> Rex Tillerson's Confirmation</a> or on the <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/377"target = "_blank"> U.S withdrawing from NAFTA</a>.</sub> | 2017-02-13 | gjopen | ["http://www.huffingtonpost.in/2017/01/24/tamil-nadu-traders-will-not-sell-coke-and-pepsi-from-march-1-on/", "https://legiscan.com/AR/rollcall/SB120/id/573473", "http://www.usdebtclock.org/", "http://www.islandpacket.com/news/business/article130301804.html#storylink=cpy", "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23460912", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fat_tax", "http://www.arkleg.state.ar.us/assembly/2017/2017R/Pages/BillInformation.aspx?measureno=hb1162", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-38767941", "http://edition.cnn.com/2016/08/31/health/sugar-tax-obesity/", "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ameren-misses-4q-profit-forecasts-131449130.html", "http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/07/business/worldbusiness/07cnd-soda.html", "http://time.com/4653219/france-ban-soda-refills-fight-obesity/", "http://www.arkleg.state.ar.us/assembly/2017/2017R/Pages/BillInformation.aspx?measureno=SB120", "http://uisjournal.com/features/2017/02/01/illinois-proposes-a-sugar-tax-to-potentially-ease-budget-concerns/", "http://www.paulharrell.com/", "http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2016/curtail-sugary-drinks/en/", "http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2017/02/gary_taubes_on.html", "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3209653/", "http://www.ledger-enquirer.com/news/business/article131254869.html", "http://www.ledger-enquirer.com/news/business/article131254869.html#storylink=cpy", "http://fortune.com/2016/12/09/coca-cola-ceo-change-muhtar-kent-james-quincey/", "http://stateofobesity.org/healthcare-costs-obesity/", "http://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2017/feb/05/tax-cut-trade-off-in-bill-dismays-anti-/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hf3jf0yUvCs", "http://gamapserver.who.int/gho/interactive_charts/ncd/risk_factors/overweight/atlas.html"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-12-27 | 1.0 | [["2016-12-27", 0.35], ["2016-12-27", 0.7], ["2016-12-27", 0.65], ["2016-12-28", 0.7], ["2016-12-28", 0.675], ["2016-12-28", 0.35], ["2016-12-28", 0.35], ["2016-12-28", 0.35], ["2016-12-28", 0.35], ["2016-12-28", 0.34], ["2016-12-28", 0.34], ["2016-12-28", 0.37], ["2016-12-28", 0.35], ["2016-12-29", 0.385], ["2016-12-29", 0.425], ["2016-12-29", 0.37], ["2016-12-29", 0.335], ["2016-12-29", 0.335], ["2016-12-29", 0.3], ["2016-12-29", 0.25], ["2016-12-29", 0.25], ["2016-12-29", 0.25], ["2016-12-30", 0.25], ["2016-12-30", 0.2], ["2016-12-30", 0.2], ["2016-12-30", 0.13], ["2016-12-30", 0.15], ["2016-12-31", 0.15], ["2016-12-31", 0.105], ["2016-12-31", 0.105], ["2016-12-31", 0.085], ["2016-12-31", 0.07], ["2017-01-01", 0.085], ["2017-01-01", 0.075], ["2017-01-01", 0.1], ["2017-01-01", 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2016-08-31 | Will the city of Venice lift its ban on "Jean A Deux Mamans" or "Piccolo Uovo" before 1 September 2016? | binary | This question was closed as "B) No" on 31 August 2016. There is no indication that Venice has lifted its ban.
Venice's mayor banned two books from preschool and elementary schools and libraries, both of which deal with gender issues and same-sex couples; the decision came as the country engages in a heated debate over same-sex marriage (<a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/19/world/europe/venice-childrens-books-ban.html?_r=0" target = "_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/venice-mayor-luigi-brugnaro-vows-gay-pride-ban-after-childrens-book-embargo-1517150" target = "_blank">International Business Times</a>). | 2016-09-01 | gjopen | ["https://larswericson.wordpress.com/", "http://igalaweb.wix.com/igala#!The-manipulation-of-the-word-%E2%80%9Cgender%E2%80%9D-in-Italy/c1ny2/56a4979f0cf22cc0bac45334", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/05/my-super-picker/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/26/gitrep-25apr16pm/", "http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/aug/26/venice-mayor-gay-pride-parade?utm_content=buffer072b9&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/22/double-median-filter/", "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/pope-francis-praises-gay-childrens-book-banned-in-venice-10478691.html", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33978500", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/22/gitrep-21apr16pm/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/15/monday-night-picks/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/16/gitrep-15apr16pm/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/10/a-super-long-picky-post/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/19/saturday-afternoon-update/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/13/gitrep-13apr16am/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/05/manual-category-assignment-work-in-progress/", "http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-35747683", "https://go.allout.org/en/a/venice-mayor/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/08/gitrep-8may16am/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/12/super-friday-night/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/18/gitrep-17mar16pm/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/14/gitrep-13may2016pm/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/10/gitrep-9may16pm/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/08/updated-super-picker/", "http://www.topix.com/it/venice", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/14/excluding-outliers-in-the-smart-crowd-forecast/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2015-09-01 | 0.0 | [["2015-09-01", 0.35], ["2015-09-01", 0.35], ["2015-09-03", 0.45], ["2015-09-03", 0.56], ["2015-09-04", 0.45], ["2015-09-06", 0.45], ["2015-09-06", 0.45], ["2015-09-08", 0.37], ["2015-09-09", 0.325], ["2015-09-09", 0.275], ["2015-09-10", 0.25], ["2015-09-10", 0.225], ["2015-09-11", 0.225], ["2015-09-12", 0.2], ["2015-09-13", 0.225], ["2015-09-13", 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2015-12-02 | Will NATO invite Montenegro to join the alliance before the end of the year? | binary | Montenegro is seeking to join the NATO alliance (http://blogs.wsj.com/brussels/2015/09/24/will-montenegro-become-natos-29th-member/ , http://www.newsweek.com/whos-afraid-nato-expansion-360854 , http://www.wsj.com/articles/nato-faces-dilemma-as-it-weighs-montenegros-bid-to-join-1436202037 ). | 2015-12-02 | gjopen | ["https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/52519", "https://apple.news/AQ3doDBA9N96Lha97MybVQQ", "http://agenda.ge/news/46914/eng", "http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_125211.htm", "http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/01/nato-to-ask-montenegro-to-join-alliance", "http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/12/01/uk-nato-montenegro-idUKKBN0TK4BF20151201", "http://www.france24.com/en/20151130-nato-set-invite-montenegro-join-alliance-sources", "http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_125370.htm", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/diplomats-nato-to-invite-montenegro-to-join-alliance/2015/12/01/8fbd3060-9820-11e5-aca6-1ae3be6f06d2_story.html", "http://nyti.ms/1lvDLAK", "http://sputniknews.com/world/20151201/1031034520/nato-montenegro.html", "http://www.euractiv.com/sections/global-europe/sources-nato-offer-membership-montenegro-319971", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34981973", "http://news.yahoo.com/nato-set-invite-montenegro-join-alliance-sources-160122506.html", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/nato-set-to-invite-montenegro-to-join-in-first-expansion-of-alliance-since-2009-1448908484", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/36216", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/51964", "http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-3342311/NATO-invites-Montenegro-29th-member-alliance.html", "http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/international/europe/2015/11/30/sources-nato-set-invite-montenegro-join-alliance/76567750/", "http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/02/europe/nato-montenegro-membership-invitation/", "http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/montenegro-eyes-nato-membership-invitation-11-30-2015", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/47197", "http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_125358.htm", "http://russia....over/", "http://news.yahoo.com/nato-invites-montenegro-become-29th-member-alliance-073612102.html"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2015-10-05 | 1.0 | [["2015-10-05", 0.005], ["2015-10-05", 0.005], ["2015-10-05", 0.01], ["2015-10-05", 0.01], ["2015-10-05", 0.02], ["2015-10-06", 0.02], ["2015-10-06", 0.04], ["2015-10-06", 0.05], ["2015-10-06", 0.05], ["2015-10-06", 0.07], ["2015-10-06", 0.08], ["2015-10-06", 0.09], ["2015-10-06", 0.1], ["2015-10-06", 0.1], ["2015-10-06", 0.1], ["2015-10-06", 0.1], ["2015-10-06", 0.1], ["2015-10-06", 0.1], ["2015-10-06", 0.1], ["2015-10-06", 0.1], ["2015-10-07", 0.1], ["2015-10-07", 0.1], ["2015-10-07", 0.1], ["2015-10-07", 0.1], 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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/54 | True |
2016-12-31 | Will any other US state adopt California’s Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate before 1 January 2017? | binary | This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016.
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<hr>
California’s Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate requires auto companies to produce a certain percentage of zero emission vehicles, such as those using hydrogen fuel cell cars and battery electric vehicles (<a href="http://www.edmunds.com/fuel-economy/will-californias-zero-emissions-mandate-alter-the-car-landscape.html" target="_blank">Edmunds</a>). The Clean Air Act permits other states to adopt California standards and nine other states plus the District of Columbia have already adopted California’s ZEV mandate (<a href="http://www.c2es.org/us-states-regions/policy-maps/zev-program" target="_blank">Center for Climate and Energy Solutions</a>).
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"http://cleantechnica.com/2015/06/06/why-california-gets-electric-cars-other-zev-mandate-states-dont-get/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/13/gitrep-13apr16am/", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/223085", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/21/gitrep-20apr16pm/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/01/gitrep-1may16am/", "http://www.zevfacts.com/zev-states.html", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/08/gitrep-8may16am/", "http://lawfilesext.leg.wa.gov/biennium/2015-16/Pdf/Bill%20Reports/House/1487%20HBA%20ENVI%2015.pdf", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/14/gitrep-13may2016pm/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/18/gitrep-17mar16pm/", "http://leg.wa.gov/legislature/Pages/cutoff.aspx", "http://lawfilesext.leg.wa.gov/biennium/2015-16/Pdf/Bill%20Reports/House/1487%20HBR%20ENVI%2015.pdf", "http://app.leg.wa.gov/billinfo/summary.aspx?bill=1487&year=2015", "http://lawfilesext.leg.wa.gov/biennium/2015-16/Pdf/Bills/House%20Bills/1487-S.pdf", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/216995", "https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/news/2016/04/26/136454/leading-by-example-state-and-local-governments-are-adopting-electric-vehicles/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-03-22 | 0.0 | [["2016-03-22", 0.75], ["2016-03-22", 0.5], ["2016-03-22", 0.15], ["2016-03-22", 0.1], ["2016-03-22", 0.15], ["2016-03-22", 0.2], ["2016-03-22", 0.21], ["2016-03-23", 0.18], ["2016-03-23", 0.19], ["2016-03-23", 0.2], ["2016-03-23", 0.095], ["2016-03-23", 0.175], ["2016-03-23", 0.2], ["2016-03-23", 0.2], ["2016-03-23", 0.2], ["2016-03-23", 0.175], ["2016-03-24", 0.19], ["2016-03-24", 0.15], ["2016-03-24", 0.1], ["2016-03-24", 0.1], ["2016-03-25", 0.1], ["2016-03-25", 0.1], ["2016-03-25", 0.1], ["2016-03-25", 0.095], ["2016-03-25", 0.095], ["2016-03-26", 0.095], ["2016-03-26", 0.1], ["2016-03-27", 0.1], ["2016-03-27", 0.1], ["2016-03-27", 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2018-01-01 | Will the "comfort women" statue be removed from outside the Japanese Consulate in Busan before 1 January 2018? | binary | The "comfort women" statue in front of the Japanese Consulate in Busan, erected in December 2016, was opposed by Japan as a violation of the 2015 agreement settling the issue (<a href = "http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/05/asia/south-korea-comfort-women-statue/"target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/06/world/asia/japan-south-korea-ambassador-comfort-woman-statue.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>). South Korea's president has criticized that agreement and observers worry that the rekindling of the "comfort women" issue may complicate South Korean and Japanese cooperation (<a href = "http://asia.nikkei.com/Viewpoints/J.-Berkshire-Miller/Moon-rise-spells-trouble-for-South-Korea-Japan-relations"target="_blank">Nikkei</a>, <a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/03/world/asia/japan-ambassador-south-korea-comfort-woman.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>).
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The "comfort women" statue was not removed from outside the Japanese Consulate. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
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| 2018-01-04 | gjopen | ["https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/06/world/asia/japan-south-korea-ambassador-comfort-woman-statue.html", "http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/japan-to-refuse-renegotiation-on-comfort-women-deal-with-south-korea", "https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/06/30/national/politics-diplomacy/busan-assembly-passes-ordinance-entrusting-municipalities-protecting-comfort-women-statues/#.WgJbgbaFSRt", "http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2017/06/23/0200000000AEN20170623010400315.html", "https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2017/08/fa3f8207b381-comfort-women-statues-installed-on-fixed-route-buses-in-seoul.html", "https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/11/24/national/politics-diplomacy/south-korea-passes-bill-declaring-comfort-women-day-japan-protests/", "https://www.pri.org/stories/2017-11-08/south-korea-makes-bold-move-former-comfort-woman-its-state-dinner-us-and-japan"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-10-23 | 0.0 | [["2017-10-25", 0.1], 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2018-10-01 | Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali? | binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">The EWP</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2018 and will be resolved in July 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Mali from July 2018 to June 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this. | 2019-12-09 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2018-06-27 | 0.0 | [["2018-06-27", 0.1], ["2018-06-27", 0.45], ["2018-06-27", 0.65], ["2018-06-27", 0.49], ["2018-06-27", 0.075], ["2018-06-27", 0.13], ["2018-06-27", 0.15], ["2018-06-28", 0.085], ["2018-06-28", 0.1], ["2018-06-28", 0.105], ["2018-06-28", 0.04], ["2018-06-28", 0.01], ["2018-06-29", 0.0], ["2018-06-29", 0.0], ["2018-06-29", 0.0], ["2018-06-30", 0.0], ["2018-07-01", 0.0], ["2018-07-02", 0.025], ["2018-07-02", 0.025], ["2018-07-02", 0.025], ["2018-07-03", 0.0], ["2018-07-03", 0.0], ["2018-07-03", 0.0], ["2018-07-03", 0.0], ["2018-07-03", 0.005], ["2018-07-06", 0.005], ["2018-07-06", 0.005], ["2018-07-09", 0.005], ["2018-07-12", 0.005], ["2018-07-13", 0.01], ["2018-07-15", 0.01], ["2018-07-15", 0.01], ["2018-07-16", 0.01], ["2018-07-18", 0.01], ["2018-07-19", 0.01], ["2018-07-23", 0.01], ["2018-07-23", 0.01], ["2018-07-24", 0.01], ["2018-07-27", 0.015], ["2018-07-29", 0.015], ["2018-07-30", 0.015], ["2018-07-30", 0.015], ["2018-08-05", 0.015], ["2018-08-06", 0.015], ["2018-08-06", 0.015], ["2018-08-09", 0.015], ["2018-08-09", 0.02], ["2018-08-10", 0.02], ["2018-08-12", 0.02], ["2018-08-12", 0.02], ["2018-08-13", 0.02], ["2018-08-14", 0.015], ["2018-08-15", 0.01], ["2018-08-16", 0.01], ["2018-08-18", 0.01], ["2018-08-18", 0.01], ["2018-08-21", 0.01], ["2018-08-22", 0.01], ["2018-08-22", 0.01], ["2018-08-23", 0.01], ["2018-08-27", 0.01], ["2018-08-29", 0.01], ["2018-09-02", 0.01], ["2018-09-03", 0.01], ["2018-09-06", 0.01], ["2018-09-11", 0.01], ["2018-09-12", 0.01], ["2018-09-13", 0.01], ["2018-09-13", 0.01], ["2018-09-18", 0.01], ["2018-09-20", 0.01], ["2018-09-20", 0.015], ["2018-09-22", 0.02], ["2018-09-24", 0.02], ["2018-09-26", 0.02], ["2018-09-28", 0.02], ["2018-09-29", 0.01], ["2018-10-01", 0.01]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/980 | True |
2017-10-01 | Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?
| binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2017 and will be resolved in July 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Bangladesh from July 2017 through June 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as 'No', with resolutions further detailed in <a href = "https://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2018/08/01/early-warning-project-question-resolutions-july-1-2017-june-30-2018/"target="_blank">this GJ Open blog post written by EWP</a>.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| 2019-12-09 | gjopen | ["https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/more-rohingya-pour-into-bangladesh-camps-at-full-capacity/2017/09/03/23101eee-9078-11e7-9c53-6a169beb0953_story.html?utm_term=.5411f4cee1fe"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-06-30 | 0.0 | [["2017-06-30", 0.01], ["2017-06-30", 0.15], ["2017-07-01", 0.075], ["2017-07-01", 0.0], ["2017-07-01", 0.005], ["2017-07-01", 0.01], ["2017-07-01", 0.01], ["2017-07-01", 0.0], ["2017-07-02", 0.0], ["2017-07-02", 0.0], ["2017-07-02", 0.025], ["2017-07-02", 0.025], ["2017-07-03", 0.0], ["2017-07-03", 0.0], ["2017-07-03", 0.0], ["2017-07-03", 0.0], ["2017-07-04", 0.0], ["2017-07-04", 0.0], ["2017-07-04", 0.0], ["2017-07-04", 0.0], ["2017-07-04", 0.0], ["2017-07-05", 0.0], ["2017-07-05", 0.0], ["2017-07-05", 0.01], ["2017-07-05", 0.01], ["2017-07-05", 0.01], ["2017-07-06", 0.01], ["2017-07-06", 0.01], ["2017-07-06", 0.01], ["2017-07-07", 0.01], ["2017-07-07", 0.01], ["2017-07-08", 0.01], ["2017-07-09", 0.01], 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0.02], ["2017-07-25", 0.02], ["2017-07-25", 0.02], ["2017-07-26", 0.01], ["2017-07-26", 0.01], ["2017-07-26", 0.01], ["2017-07-27", 0.01], ["2017-07-27", 0.01], ["2017-07-28", 0.01], ["2017-07-28", 0.01], ["2017-07-29", 0.01], ["2017-07-29", 0.01], ["2017-07-30", 0.01], ["2017-07-31", 0.01], ["2017-07-31", 0.01], ["2017-08-01", 0.01], ["2017-08-01", 0.01], ["2017-08-02", 0.01], ["2017-08-02", 0.01], ["2017-08-02", 0.01], ["2017-08-03", 0.01], ["2017-08-03", 0.01], ["2017-08-04", 0.01], ["2017-08-05", 0.01], ["2017-08-05", 0.01], ["2017-08-06", 0.01], ["2017-08-07", 0.01], ["2017-08-07", 0.01], ["2017-08-07", 0.01], ["2017-08-07", 0.01], ["2017-08-08", 0.01], ["2017-08-09", 0.01], ["2017-08-09", 0.01], ["2017-08-09", 0.01], ["2017-08-10", 0.01], ["2017-08-10", 0.01], ["2017-08-11", 0.01], ["2017-08-11", 0.01], ["2017-08-12", 0.01], ["2017-08-12", 0.01], ["2017-08-13", 0.01], ["2017-08-13", 0.01], ["2017-08-14", 0.01], ["2017-08-14", 0.01], ["2017-08-15", 0.01], ["2017-08-15", 0.01], ["2017-08-16", 0.01], ["2017-08-16", 0.01], ["2017-08-16", 0.01], ["2017-08-17", 0.01], ["2017-08-18", 0.01], ["2017-08-18", 0.01], ["2017-08-19", 0.01], ["2017-08-20", 0.01], ["2017-08-21", 0.01], ["2017-08-21", 0.01], ["2017-08-22", 0.01], ["2017-08-22", 0.01], ["2017-08-23", 0.01], ["2017-08-23", 0.01], ["2017-08-24", 0.01], ["2017-08-24", 0.01], ["2017-08-25", 0.01], ["2017-08-25", 0.01], ["2017-08-26", 0.01], ["2017-08-26", 0.01], ["2017-08-26", 0.01], ["2017-08-26", 0.01], ["2017-08-27", 0.01], ["2017-08-28", 0.01], ["2017-08-28", 0.01], ["2017-08-28", 0.01], ["2017-08-29", 0.01], ["2017-08-29", 0.01], ["2017-08-30", 0.01], ["2017-08-30", 0.01], ["2017-08-31", 0.01], ["2017-08-31", 0.01], ["2017-08-31", 0.01], ["2017-09-01", 0.01], ["2017-09-02", 0.01], ["2017-09-02", 0.01], ["2017-09-03", 0.01], ["2017-09-03", 0.01], ["2017-09-03", 0.01], ["2017-09-03", 0.02], ["2017-09-03", 0.015], ["2017-09-03", 0.01], ["2017-09-03", 0.01], ["2017-09-04", 0.01], ["2017-09-04", 0.01], ["2017-09-04", 0.01], ["2017-09-04", 0.01], ["2017-09-05", 0.01], ["2017-09-05", 0.01], ["2017-09-05", 0.01], ["2017-09-06", 0.01], ["2017-09-06", 0.01], ["2017-09-07", 0.01], ["2017-09-07", 0.01], ["2017-09-08", 0.01], ["2017-09-08", 0.01], ["2017-09-09", 0.01], ["2017-09-11", 0.01], ["2017-09-11", 0.01], ["2017-09-12", 0.01], ["2017-09-12", 0.01], ["2017-09-13", 0.01], ["2017-09-13", 0.01], ["2017-09-14", 0.01], ["2017-09-14", 0.01], ["2017-09-14", 0.01], ["2017-09-15", 0.01], ["2017-09-15", 0.01], ["2017-09-16", 0.01], ["2017-09-16", 0.01], ["2017-09-16", 0.01], ["2017-09-17", 0.01], ["2017-09-17", 0.01], ["2017-09-18", 0.01], ["2017-09-18", 0.01], ["2017-09-18", 0.01], ["2017-09-19", 0.01], ["2017-09-20", 0.01], ["2017-09-20", 0.01], ["2017-09-20", 0.01], ["2017-09-21", 0.01], ["2017-09-21", 0.01], ["2017-09-21", 0.01], ["2017-09-21", 0.01], ["2017-09-21", 0.01], ["2017-09-21", 0.01], ["2017-09-21", 0.01], ["2017-09-21", 0.01], ["2017-09-22", 0.01], ["2017-09-22", 0.01], ["2017-09-22", 0.015], ["2017-09-22", 0.015], ["2017-09-22", 0.035], ["2017-09-22", 0.05], ["2017-09-22", 0.05], ["2017-09-22", 0.05], ["2017-09-22", 0.05], ["2017-09-22", 0.05], ["2017-09-23", 0.05], ["2017-09-23", 0.055], ["2017-09-23", 0.055], ["2017-09-23", 0.06], ["2017-09-24", 0.06], ["2017-09-24", 0.06], ["2017-09-25", 0.06], ["2017-09-25", 0.06], ["2017-09-26", 0.06], ["2017-09-26", 0.06], ["2017-09-27", 0.06], ["2017-09-27", 0.06], ["2017-09-27", 0.15], ["2017-09-28", 0.15], ["2017-09-28", 0.15], ["2017-09-28", 0.15], ["2017-09-28", 0.15], ["2017-09-29", 0.105], ["2017-09-29", 0.105], ["2017-09-30", 0.105], ["2017-09-30", 0.105], ["2017-10-01", 0.105]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/508 | True |
2017-12-31 | Will the new Zimbabwean government offer opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai or ex-Finance Minister Tendai Biti a position in the post-coup government cabinet before 31 December 2017? | binary | Former Prime Minister Tsvangirai returned to Zimbabwe after President Mugabe was put under house arrest (<a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-19883387"target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/882008/Morgan-Tsvangirai-who-is-Prime-Minister-Zimbabwe-Robert-Mugabe-opposition-leader-MDC"target="_blank">Daily Express</a>). Former Finance Minister Tendai Biti has discussed means of improving the economy under the new government (<a href = "https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/south-africa-would-suffer-the-effects-of-zimbabwes-implosion-tendai-biti-20171123"target="_blank">News 24</a>). Question will resolve as "yes" if the new Zimbabwean government announces or confirms media reports that either Morgan Tsvangirai or Tendai Biti was offered a position in the new Zimbabwean cabinet.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr> | 2018-01-02 | gjopen | ["http://ewn.co.za/2017/12/04/all-eyes-on-zimbabwe-as-new-cabinet-to-be-sworn-in", "http://bulawayo24.com/index-id-news-sc-national-byo-122064.html", "https://www.enca.com/africa/zimbabwes-opposition-insists-morgan-tsvangirai-will-be-countrys-next-leader", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-42190457", "http://punchng.com/zimbabwe-mnangagwa-rewards-army-in-new-cabinet-shuns-opposition/", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-zimbabwe-politics/zimbabwe-swears-in-first-post-mugabe-cabinet-idUSKBN1DY1D1", "https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DP8aI8fX0AEW_cE.jpg", "https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2017-11-22-iss-today-the-african-unions-chequered-history-with-military-coups/", "http://grandmotherafrica.com/west-african-reactions-on-the-invasion-of-the-gambia/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-abZaef-Xmc"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-11-29 | 0.0 | [["2017-11-29", 0.5], ["2017-11-29", 0.25], ["2017-11-29", 0.4], ["2017-11-29", 0.65], ["2017-11-30", 0.475], ["2017-11-30", 0.2], ["2017-11-30", 0.2], ["2017-11-30", 0.22], ["2017-11-30", 0.21], ["2017-11-30", 0.21], ["2017-11-30", 0.31], ["2017-11-30", 0.275], ["2017-11-30", 0.25], ["2017-12-01", 0.15], ["2017-12-01", 0.11], ["2017-12-01", 0.055], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-02", 0.0], ["2017-12-02", 0.0], ["2017-12-03", 0.0], ["2017-12-03", 0.0], ["2017-12-03", 0.0], ["2017-12-03", 0.0], ["2017-12-03", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-05", 0.0], ["2017-12-05", 0.0], ["2017-12-05", 0.0], ["2017-12-05", 0.0], ["2017-12-06", 0.0], ["2017-12-06", 0.0], ["2017-12-07", 0.0], ["2017-12-08", 0.0], ["2017-12-08", 0.0], ["2017-12-08", 0.0], ["2017-12-09", 0.0], ["2017-12-09", 0.0], ["2017-12-09", 0.0], ["2017-12-10", 0.0], ["2017-12-10", 0.0], ["2017-12-10", 0.0], ["2017-12-11", 0.0], ["2017-12-11", 0.0], ["2017-12-11", 0.0], ["2017-12-12", 0.0], ["2017-12-12", 0.0], ["2017-12-13", 0.0], ["2017-12-13", 0.0], ["2017-12-14", 0.0], ["2017-12-14", 0.0], ["2017-12-14", 0.0], ["2017-12-15", 0.0], ["2017-12-16", 0.0], ["2017-12-16", 0.005], ["2017-12-16", 0.005], ["2017-12-17", 0.0], ["2017-12-18", 0.0], ["2017-12-18", 0.0], ["2017-12-18", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.01], ["2017-12-19", 0.01], ["2017-12-19", 0.005], ["2017-12-19", 0.01], ["2017-12-19", 0.01], ["2017-12-19", 0.01], ["2017-12-20", 0.01], ["2017-12-20", 0.01], ["2017-12-20", 0.005], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-21", 0.0], ["2017-12-21", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.005], ["2017-12-22", 0.005], ["2017-12-23", 0.01], ["2017-12-23", 0.01], ["2017-12-24", 0.01], ["2017-12-24", 0.01], ["2017-12-24", 0.01], ["2017-12-24", 0.01], ["2017-12-24", 0.01], ["2017-12-24", 0.005], ["2017-12-24", 0.01], ["2017-12-24", 0.01], ["2017-12-25", 0.01], ["2017-12-25", 0.01], ["2017-12-25", 0.01], ["2017-12-25", 0.01], ["2017-12-25", 0.005], ["2017-12-25", 0.005], ["2017-12-26", 0.005], ["2017-12-26", 0.005], ["2017-12-26", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/795 | True |
2016-08-10 | Will Africa remain free of the wild poliovirus through 31 December 2016? | binary | This question was closed with the answer "No" on 11 August 2016 with an end date of 10 August 2016. On August 10, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative reported the detection of two cases of wild poliovirus type one in the Borno state of Nigeria, with symptoms detected on 6 July 2016 and 13 July 2016 (<a href="http://www.polioeradication.org/Dataandmonitoring/Poliothisweek.aspx" target="_blank">Global Polio Eradication Initiative</a>). Scores are based on forecasts made through 11:59pm Pacific time on 9 August 2016.
The last human wild poliovirus case in Africa was diagnosed in Somalia on 11 August 2014 (<a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-end-of-polio-in-africa/2015/08/20/ba18fd9c-412e-11e5-8e7d-9c033e6745d8_story.html" target = "_blank">Washington Post</a>, <a href = "http://www.who.int/topics/poliomyelitis/polio-free/en/#" target = "_blank">World Health Organization</a>).
Question will be resolved using data from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative or the World Health Organization (<a href = "http://www.polioeradication.org/Dataandmonitoring/Poliothisweek.aspx" target = "_blank">Global Polio Eradication Initiative</a>, <a href = "http://www.who.int/csr/don/archive/disease/poliomyelitis/en/" target = "_blank">World Health Organization</a>).
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"http://promedmail.org/direct.php?id=20160811.4408853", "http://www.promedmail.org/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2015-09-01 | 0.0 | [["2015-09-02", 0.65], ["2015-09-02", 0.7], ["2015-09-02", 0.75], ["2015-09-02", 0.7], ["2015-09-03", 0.705], ["2015-09-04", 0.7], ["2015-09-04", 0.7], ["2015-09-04", 0.675], ["2015-09-04", 0.69], ["2015-09-05", 0.67], ["2015-09-05", 0.65], ["2015-09-06", 0.65], ["2015-09-06", 0.65], ["2015-09-07", 0.645], ["2015-09-08", 0.65], ["2015-09-08", 0.645], ["2015-09-09", 0.64], ["2015-09-10", 0.645], ["2015-09-10", 0.645], ["2015-09-11", 0.65], ["2015-09-11", 0.65], ["2015-09-11", 0.6], ["2015-09-12", 0.6], ["2015-09-13", 0.6], ["2015-09-15", 0.6], ["2015-09-15", 0.575], ["2015-09-15", 0.575], ["2015-09-16", 0.55], ["2015-09-16", 0.55], ["2015-09-17", 0.55], ["2015-09-17", 0.55], ["2015-09-18", 0.55], ["2015-09-18", 0.55], ["2015-09-19", 0.55], ["2015-09-20", 0.55], ["2015-09-21", 0.53], ["2015-09-21", 0.53], ["2015-09-22", 0.53], 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2017-12-01 | Will Salva Kiir cease to be President of South Sudan before 1 December 2017? | binary | Salva Kiir has been president of South Sudan since the country became independent in July 2011 (<a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-12107760" target="_blank">BBC</a>), but his government has been fighting a civil war against forces led by his former vice president, Riek Machar, since late 2013 (<a href="http://www.usip.org/publications/2014/01/09/the-conflict-in-south-sudan-the-political-context" target="_blank">US Institute of Peace</a>). In the event that Kiir reportedly disappears or flees the capital, GJI will observe a three-week waiting period, at the end of which the question will close retroactively to the date of his disappearance or exodus. If Kiir returns in the interim, the question will remain open.
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<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/286" target="_blank">the president of Zimbabwe</a> or <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/267" target="_blank">the president of Burundi</a>.</sub>
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Salva Kiir remains President of South Sudan. This question closed as “b) No,” with and end date of 1 December 2017.
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<hr> | 2017-12-04 | gjopen | ["https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/02/27/south-sudans-man-made-famine/", "http://www.dw.com/en/south-sudan-president-sacks-central-bank-chief/a-37136702", "http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article60976", "http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/23/world/africa/23sudan.html?_r=1", "http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/31/world/africa/31arab.html?fta=y", "http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-lost-hopes-for-south-sudan", "http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article61564", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/11/south-sudan-seeks-arms-embargo-security-council-161118074141598.html", "http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article61556", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/11/south-sudan-kiir-vist-khartoum-discuss-borders-171101091618664.html", "http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/sudan.htm", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fragile_States_Index", "http://www.usip.org/publications/2014/01/09/the-conflict-in-south-sudan-the-political-context", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/423645", "https://www.irinnews.org/opinion/2016/11/25/genocidal-logic-south-sudan%E2%80%99s-%E2%80%9Cgun-class%E2%80%9D", "http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/04/world/africa/04bashir.html?scp=8&sq=&st=nyt", "http://mgafrica.com/article/2017-01-16-the-failure-of-forced-peace-south-sudans-apprehensive-future/", "http://www.southsudannewsagency.com/index.php/2016/11/19/south-sudan-beefs-security-amid-mounting-tension/", "https://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article64025", "http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article61261", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/africa-trip-illustrates-haleys-trusted-unusually-direct-relationship-with-trump/2017/10/29/df7c4942-bc09-11e7-9e58-e6288544af98_story.html", "http://www.sudantribune.com/", "http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/sudan-political-groups.htm", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/439313", "https://radiotamazuj.org/en/article/south-sudan-central-bank-denies-it-will-create-new-currency-denominations"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-11-15 | 0.0 | [["2016-11-15", 0.25], ["2016-11-15", 0.4], ["2016-11-15", 0.4], ["2016-11-15", 0.375], ["2016-11-16", 0.25], ["2016-11-16", 0.3], ["2016-11-16", 0.3], ["2016-11-17", 0.3], ["2016-11-17", 0.225], ["2016-11-17", 0.15], ["2016-11-17", 0.15], ["2016-11-18", 0.2], ["2016-11-18", 0.175], ["2016-11-18", 0.15], ["2016-11-19", 0.225], ["2016-11-20", 0.125], ["2016-11-20", 0.15], ["2016-11-20", 0.25], ["2016-11-21", 0.3], ["2016-11-21", 0.3], ["2016-11-21", 0.3], ["2016-11-22", 0.3], ["2016-11-22", 0.3], ["2016-11-23", 0.3], ["2016-11-23", 0.3], ["2016-11-24", 0.29], ["2016-11-24", 0.265], ["2016-11-25", 0.26], ["2016-11-27", 0.205], ["2016-11-29", 0.2], ["2016-11-30", 0.205], ["2016-11-30", 0.24], ["2016-11-30", 0.245], ["2016-12-01", 0.21], ["2016-12-01", 0.25], ["2016-12-02", 0.25], ["2016-12-04", 0.265], 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["2017-10-31", 0.035], ["2017-10-31", 0.035], ["2017-11-01", 0.035], ["2017-11-02", 0.035], ["2017-11-03", 0.03], ["2017-11-04", 0.03], ["2017-11-06", 0.03], ["2017-11-07", 0.02], ["2017-11-10", 0.02], ["2017-11-12", 0.02], ["2017-11-12", 0.02], ["2017-11-13", 0.01], ["2017-11-13", 0.01], ["2017-11-14", 0.01], ["2017-11-15", 0.01], ["2017-11-18", 0.01], ["2017-11-19", 0.01], ["2017-11-19", 0.01], ["2017-11-20", 0.01], ["2017-11-21", 0.01], ["2017-11-22", 0.01], ["2017-11-23", 0.01], ["2017-11-24", 0.01], ["2017-11-25", 0.01], ["2017-11-25", 0.01], ["2017-11-27", 0.01], ["2017-11-28", 0.01], ["2017-11-28", 0.01], ["2017-11-28", 0.01], ["2017-11-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-01", 0.01], ["2017-12-01", 0.01]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/351 | True |
2017-10-31 | Will the PITF Worldwide Atrocities Dataset record an event perpetrated by a state actor in India (IND) that starts between 1 October 2017 and 31 October 2017? | binary | The question will resolve as "yes" if the <a href="http://eventdata.parusanalytics.com/data.dir/atrocities.html" target="_blank">Political Instability Task Force (PITF) Worldwide Atrocities Dataset</a> records any event with a start date (Start Day, Start Month, Start Year) in the period of interest, inclusive, for which 'Event Location: Country' is the country of interest, and 'Perpetrators: Perp State Role' is: 'State Perpetrator'; 'Transnational, State'; or 'Multiple Perpetrators (State and Non-State)'. Question will be suspended on the last day of the period of interest and resolved when the data is released, typically in the middle of the next month via the .zip file which covers the period of interest.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
Due to a temporary pause in data availability this question will remain closed and unresolved until data becomes available. This is currently expected to be around March 2018. | None | gjopen | ["https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/588758", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/10/indian-troops-rebels-killed-kashmir-gun-battle-171011051349832.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/586669", "http://www.fredericksburg.com/news/news-wire/rebels-storm-indian-paramilitary-camp-in-kashmir-killed/article_6bf22144-965f-58d6-bd30-081a0198be83.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/585549", "http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/indian-air-force-commandos-rebels-killed-kashmir-50408898", "https://mobile.nytimes.com/aponline/2017/09/24/world/asia/ap-as-pakistan-india.html", "http://indianexpress.com/article/india/two-militants-killed-by-security-forces-in-hajin-jammu-and-kashmir-encounter-live-updates-4884569/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-09-13 | Not resolved. | [["2017-09-13", 0.35], ["2017-09-13", 0.0], ["2017-09-13", 0.0], ["2017-09-13", 0.0], ["2017-09-13", 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2016-12-31 | Will Tesla Motors deliver more than 80,000 BEVs to customers in calendar year 2016? | binary | This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. Tesla did not deliver more than 80,000 BEVs to customers in 2016 (<a href = "http://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-misses-its-2016-sales-goal-despite-27-fourth-quarter-rise-1483479562"target = "_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
Tesla Motors was created in 2003 by engineers in Silicon Valley with the mindset that battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) could be better than gasoline-powered cars, and with the mission to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable transport. Tesla delivered 32,000 BEVs in 2014 and 50,000 BEVs in 2015. The company predicts that it will deliver between 80,000 and 90,000 BEVs in 2016 (<a href="http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/1675108879x0x874449/945B9CF5-86DA-4C35-B03C-4892824F058D/Q4_15_Tesla_Update_Letter.pdf" target="_blank">Tesla</a>). Yearly deliveries can be extracted from the cumulative delivery data provided on page 4 of the letter. The question will be suspended on 31 December 2016 and will be closed when the 2016 data is released by <a href="http://ir.teslamotors.com/events.cfm" target="_blank">Tesla</a>.
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:TeslaMotorsYorkdale5.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a1/TeslaMotorsYorkdale5.jpg/1600px-TeslaMotorsYorkdale5.jpg" height=200></a>
<small>Image source: Wikimedia Commons. Click on the image for more info.</small>
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<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/168-will-any-other-us-state-adopt-california-s-zero-emission-vehicle-zev-mandate-before-1-january-2017" target="_blank">Will any other US state adopt California’s Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate before 1 January 2017?</a> | 2017-01-05 | gjopen | ["https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-03/tesla-falls-as-quarterly-deliveries-trail-analysts-estimates", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/382602", "http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-tesla-delivery-production-3q-musk-20161002-snap-story.html", "http://seekingalpha.com/article/4028253-teslas-december-remember-model-3-problems", "http://ev-sales.blogspot.de/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/353249", "http://ev-sales.blogspot.de/2016_10_01_archive.html", "https://electrek.co/2016/10/02/tesla-tsla-delivery-q3-2016-record-breaking-24500-vehicles/", "http://www.ontheissues.org/celeb/Republican_Party_Environment.htm", "http://insideevs.com/november-2016-plug-electric-vehicle-sales-report-card/", "http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/", "http://www.fool.com/investing/2016/12/21/3-catalysts-for-tesla-motors-incs-vehicle-deliveri.aspx", "http://www.fool.com/investing/2016/08/12/forecasting-tesla-motors-incs-q3-deliveries-expect.aspx", "http://ir.tesla.com/releasedetail.cfm?releaseid=991720", "https://electrek.co/2016/12/07/tesla-deliveries-2016/", "https://cleantechnica.com/2016/10/03/tesla-shatters-quarterly-sales-record-24500-model-s-model-x-evs-delivered-q3-70-increase-q2/", "http://ir.tesla.com/releasedetail.cfm?releaseid=978031", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/382500", "https://electrek.co/2016/04/04/tesla-deliveries-q1-2016/", "http://seekingalpha.com/article/4032851-tesla-q4-delivery-items-watch", "http://www.wikiwand.com/en/Tesla_Motors", "http://ev-sales.blogspot.de/2016/11/world-top-10-october-2016.html", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-misses-its-2016-sales-goal-despite-27-fourth-quarter-rise-1483479562", "http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2015/08/total-tesla-motors-sales-figures-usa-canada.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Motors"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-03-22 | 0.0 | [["2016-03-22", 0.75], ["2016-03-22", 0.8], ["2016-03-22", 0.63], ["2016-03-22", 0.64], ["2016-03-23", 0.73], ["2016-03-23", 0.78], ["2016-03-23", 0.81], ["2016-03-23", 0.85], ["2016-03-23", 0.84], ["2016-03-23", 0.84], ["2016-03-23", 0.85], ["2016-03-23", 0.85], ["2016-03-24", 0.85], ["2016-03-24", 0.83], ["2016-03-24", 0.65], ["2016-03-24", 0.65], ["2016-03-25", 0.65], ["2016-03-25", 0.65], ["2016-03-25", 0.64], ["2016-03-25", 0.5], ["2016-03-25", 0.525], ["2016-03-26", 0.62], ["2016-03-26", 0.63], ["2016-03-26", 0.675], ["2016-03-27", 0.7], ["2016-03-27", 0.7], ["2016-03-27", 0.65], ["2016-03-27", 0.655], ["2016-03-27", 0.595], ["2016-03-27", 0.57], ["2016-03-27", 0.595], 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2017-12-29 | Between 29 November 2017 and 29 December 2017, will there be an attack by non-state actors on a civilian sea vessel which results in at least three fatalities? | binary | Examples of civilian sea vessels include, but are not limited to, cruise liners, fishing boats, and merchant ships (e.g., oil tankers). Recent studies indicate that civilian vessels are increasingly vulnerable to attacks by non-state actors (<a href = "http://www.maritime-executive.com/article/terrorists-on-the-ocean-sea-monsters-of-the-21st-century"target="_blank">Maritime Executive</a>, <a href = "http://www.marineinsight.com/marine-piracy-marine/10-maritime-piracy-affected-areas-around-the-world/"target="_blank">Marine Insight</a>,<a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-37561749"target="_blank">BBC</a>).
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There was not an attack between 29 November 2017 and 29 December 2017 by non-state actors on a civilian sea vessel which resulted in at least three fatalities. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 29 December 2017.
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| 2018-01-03 | gjopen | ["https://www.reuters.com/article/us-somalia-piracy/somali-piracy-death-toll-rises-as-violence-worsens-idUSBRE85L08N20120622", "https://thediplomat.com/2017/06/asias-deadly-pirates/", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-42213513", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_terrorist_incidents"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-11-29 | 0.0 | [["2017-11-29", 0.05], ["2017-11-29", 0.2], ["2017-11-29", 0.225], ["2017-11-29", 0.14], ["2017-11-29", 0.02], ["2017-11-29", 0.03], ["2017-11-30", 0.05], ["2017-11-30", 0.035], ["2017-11-30", 0.035], ["2017-11-30", 0.035], ["2017-11-30", 0.015], ["2017-11-30", 0.01], ["2017-11-30", 0.01], ["2017-11-30", 0.02], ["2017-11-30", 0.04], ["2017-12-01", 0.03], ["2017-12-01", 0.03], ["2017-12-01", 0.03], ["2017-12-01", 0.03], ["2017-12-01", 0.065], ["2017-12-01", 0.065], ["2017-12-01", 0.03], ["2017-12-02", 0.025], ["2017-12-02", 0.03], ["2017-12-02", 0.03], ["2017-12-02", 0.03], ["2017-12-03", 0.03], ["2017-12-03", 0.025], ["2017-12-04", 0.025], ["2017-12-04", 0.025], ["2017-12-04", 0.025], ["2017-12-05", 0.025], ["2017-12-05", 0.025], ["2017-12-05", 0.02], ["2017-12-05", 0.02], ["2017-12-05", 0.02], ["2017-12-06", 0.02], ["2017-12-06", 0.02], ["2017-12-07", 0.02], ["2017-12-07", 0.02], ["2017-12-07", 0.02], ["2017-12-08", 0.02], ["2017-12-08", 0.02], ["2017-12-08", 0.02], ["2017-12-09", 0.02], ["2017-12-09", 0.02], ["2017-12-09", 0.02], ["2017-12-09", 0.02], ["2017-12-09", 0.02], ["2017-12-09", 0.025], ["2017-12-09", 0.025], ["2017-12-10", 0.025], ["2017-12-10", 0.03], ["2017-12-10", 0.03], ["2017-12-10", 0.03], ["2017-12-10", 0.03], ["2017-12-11", 0.04], ["2017-12-11", 0.04], ["2017-12-11", 0.045], ["2017-12-11", 0.045], ["2017-12-11", 0.045], ["2017-12-11", 0.035], ["2017-12-11", 0.04], ["2017-12-12", 0.04], ["2017-12-12", 0.04], ["2017-12-13", 0.04], ["2017-12-13", 0.03], ["2017-12-13", 0.03], ["2017-12-14", 0.03], ["2017-12-14", 0.03], ["2017-12-15", 0.03], ["2017-12-16", 0.04], ["2017-12-16", 0.05], ["2017-12-16", 0.04], ["2017-12-16", 0.03], ["2017-12-16", 0.03], ["2017-12-16", 0.03], ["2017-12-16", 0.03], ["2017-12-16", 0.03], ["2017-12-17", 0.03], ["2017-12-17", 0.03], ["2017-12-17", 0.025], ["2017-12-18", 0.025], ["2017-12-18", 0.025], ["2017-12-18", 0.025], ["2017-12-18", 0.02], ["2017-12-18", 0.02], ["2017-12-18", 0.02], ["2017-12-18", 0.01], ["2017-12-18", 0.01], ["2017-12-18", 0.0], ["2017-12-18", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-21", 0.0], ["2017-12-21", 0.0], ["2017-12-21", 0.0], ["2017-12-21", 0.0], ["2017-12-21", 0.0], ["2017-12-21", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.005], ["2017-12-22", 0.005], ["2017-12-22", 0.005], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-23", 0.0], ["2017-12-23", 0.0], ["2017-12-23", 0.0], ["2017-12-23", 0.0], ["2017-12-23", 0.0], ["2017-12-23", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-25", 0.0], ["2017-12-25", 0.0], ["2017-12-25", 0.0], ["2017-12-25", 0.0], ["2017-12-25", 0.005], ["2017-12-25", 0.005], ["2017-12-26", 0.01], ["2017-12-26", 0.01], ["2017-12-26", 0.01], ["2017-12-26", 0.01], ["2017-12-27", 0.01], ["2017-12-27", 0.01], ["2017-12-27", 0.03], ["2017-12-27", 0.03], ["2017-12-27", 0.03], ["2017-12-27", 0.03], ["2017-12-27", 0.03], ["2017-12-27", 0.05], ["2017-12-27", 0.05], ["2017-12-27", 0.05], ["2017-12-27", 0.05], ["2017-12-28", 0.03], ["2017-12-28", 0.03], ["2017-12-28", 0.01], ["2017-12-28", 0.01], ["2017-12-28", 0.01], ["2017-12-28", 0.01], ["2017-12-28", 0.01], ["2017-12-29", 0.01], ["2017-12-29", 0.01], ["2017-12-29", 0.05], ["2017-12-29", 0.05]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/799 | True |
2019-03-31 | Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey? | binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Turkey from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://earlywarningproject.ushmm.org"target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this.
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| 2020-03-18 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2018-12-28 | 0.0 | [["2018-12-28", 0.02], ["2018-12-28", 0.06], ["2018-12-29", 0.06], ["2018-12-30", 0.05], ["2018-12-30", 0.035], ["2018-12-30", 0.03], ["2018-12-31", 0.025], ["2018-12-31", 0.025], ["2018-12-31", 0.02], ["2018-12-31", 0.02], ["2019-01-01", 0.02], ["2019-01-02", 0.01], ["2019-01-02", 0.01], ["2019-01-02", 0.0], ["2019-01-03", 0.0], ["2019-01-03", 0.0], ["2019-01-04", 0.0], ["2019-01-04", 0.0], ["2019-01-04", 0.0], ["2019-01-04", 0.0], ["2019-01-04", 0.0], ["2019-01-04", 0.0], ["2019-01-04", 0.0], ["2019-01-04", 0.0], ["2019-01-06", 0.005], ["2019-01-06", 0.02], ["2019-01-06", 0.02], ["2019-01-06", 0.02], ["2019-01-06", 0.035], ["2019-01-06", 0.045], ["2019-01-06", 0.05], ["2019-01-06", 0.05], ["2019-01-06", 0.05], ["2019-01-07", 0.05], ["2019-01-07", 0.05], ["2019-01-07", 0.075], ["2019-01-07", 0.05], ["2019-01-07", 0.05], ["2019-01-08", 0.05], ["2019-01-09", 0.05], ["2019-01-09", 0.05], ["2019-01-09", 0.05], ["2019-01-12", 0.05], ["2019-01-12", 0.05], ["2019-01-13", 0.05], ["2019-01-13", 0.05], ["2019-01-14", 0.05], ["2019-01-15", 0.055], ["2019-01-16", 0.055], ["2019-01-18", 0.05], ["2019-01-18", 0.05], ["2019-01-19", 0.05], ["2019-01-20", 0.05], ["2019-01-22", 0.05], ["2019-01-23", 0.05], ["2019-01-26", 0.05], ["2019-01-27", 0.05], ["2019-01-29", 0.05], ["2019-01-29", 0.05], ["2019-01-29", 0.055], ["2019-01-31", 0.055], ["2019-02-01", 0.055], ["2019-02-01", 0.055], ["2019-02-03", 0.06], ["2019-02-03", 0.06], ["2019-02-04", 0.055], ["2019-02-05", 0.055], ["2019-02-08", 0.055], ["2019-02-08", 0.055], ["2019-02-08", 0.05], ["2019-02-11", 0.05], ["2019-02-11", 0.05], ["2019-02-11", 0.05], ["2019-02-12", 0.05], ["2019-02-12", 0.05], ["2019-02-12", 0.05], ["2019-02-13", 0.05], ["2019-02-16", 0.05], ["2019-02-16", 0.05], ["2019-02-16", 0.05], ["2019-02-20", 0.05], ["2019-02-22", 0.05], ["2019-02-22", 0.045], ["2019-02-24", 0.045], ["2019-02-26", 0.045], ["2019-02-27", 0.05], ["2019-02-28", 0.05], ["2019-02-28", 0.05], ["2019-03-01", 0.04], ["2019-03-01", 0.04], ["2019-03-04", 0.04], ["2019-03-05", 0.035], ["2019-03-07", 0.03], ["2019-03-07", 0.035], ["2019-03-07", 0.035], ["2019-03-09", 0.04], ["2019-03-09", 0.04], ["2019-03-09", 0.03], ["2019-03-11", 0.03], ["2019-03-11", 0.035], ["2019-03-11", 0.035], ["2019-03-12", 0.03], ["2019-03-12", 0.03], ["2019-03-13", 0.03], ["2019-03-14", 0.025], ["2019-03-17", 0.025], ["2019-03-19", 0.025], ["2019-03-22", 0.025], ["2019-03-22", 0.02], ["2019-03-25", 0.02], ["2019-03-28", 0.025], ["2019-03-29", 0.025], ["2019-03-30", 0.025], ["2019-03-31", 0.025]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1079 | True |
2017-11-01 | Before 1 November 2017, will the US impose economic sanctions on Iran for activities related to a nuclear program? | binary | As part of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which was signed in July 2015, the US lifted nuclear-related sanctions on Iran in exchange for Iran's agreeing to freeze its nuclear program (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/17/world/middleeast/iran-sanctions-lifted-nuclear-deal.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href="https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/Programs/Documents/jcpoa_faqs.pdf" target="_blank">US Department of the Treasury FAQ</a>, <a href="http://www.cfr.org/iran/international-sanctions-iran/p20258" target="_blank">Council on Foreign Relations</a>, <a href="https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/Programs/pages/iran.aspx" target="_blank">US Department of the Treasury Resource Center</a>). Congressional Republicans have called for repeal of the JCPOA and one presidential candidate has promised to reinstate sanctions (<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/04/04/donald-trump-is-right-about-tearing-up-the-iran-deal-says-a-leading-iranian-hard-liner/" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>). Reimposition of sanctions lifted as part of the JCPOA will count, as would new sanctions punishing Iran for activity related to a nuclear program, including violations of the JCPOA or the NPT more broadly. Sanctions imposed for unrelated issues (e.g. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/24/us-treasury-new-sanctions-iran-ballistic-missile-test" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>) will NOT count.
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["2017-10-26", 0.03], ["2017-10-27", 0.025], ["2017-10-27", 0.02], ["2017-10-28", 0.02], ["2017-10-29", 0.02], ["2017-10-29", 0.015], ["2017-10-30", 0.015], ["2017-10-31", 0.015], ["2017-10-31", 0.01], ["2017-11-01", 0.01], ["2017-11-01", 0.01]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/303 | True |
2017-07-01 | Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan? | binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Sudan from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ Open</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on other questions in this challenge: <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/16-early-warning-project-2017-2018"target = "_blank">Early Warning Project 2017 - 2018</a></sub>
This question was closed as no (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/ewp"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| 2019-12-05 | gjopen | ["http://www.aljazeera.com/video/news/2017/06/fears-uns-darfur-peacekeeping-cuts-170629091056568.html", "http://www.chron.com/news/crime/article/South-Sudan-pro-government-forces-blamed-for-11158129.php"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-03-31 | 0.0 | [["2017-03-31", 0.38], ["2017-03-31", 0.15], ["2017-03-31", 0.075], ["2017-03-31", 0.125], ["2017-03-31", 0.175], ["2017-03-31", 0.1], ["2017-04-01", 0.05], ["2017-04-01", 0.075], ["2017-04-01", 0.4], ["2017-04-01", 0.43], ["2017-04-01", 0.65], ["2017-04-01", 0.65], ["2017-04-01", 0.625], ["2017-04-01", 0.58], ["2017-04-01", 0.58], ["2017-04-01", 0.44], ["2017-04-02", 0.58], ["2017-04-02", 0.56], ["2017-04-02", 0.32], ["2017-04-02", 0.28], ["2017-04-02", 0.265], ["2017-04-03", 0.25], ["2017-04-03", 0.25], ["2017-04-03", 0.25], ["2017-04-03", 0.25], ["2017-04-03", 0.25], ["2017-04-03", 0.25], ["2017-04-03", 0.235], ["2017-04-03", 0.235], ["2017-04-04", 0.25], ["2017-04-04", 0.25], ["2017-04-04", 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["2017-04-27", 0.16], ["2017-04-27", 0.16], ["2017-04-28", 0.16], ["2017-04-29", 0.16], ["2017-04-29", 0.155], ["2017-04-30", 0.155], ["2017-04-30", 0.155], ["2017-04-30", 0.155], ["2017-05-01", 0.155], ["2017-05-02", 0.155], ["2017-05-02", 0.155], ["2017-05-03", 0.155], ["2017-05-04", 0.155], ["2017-05-04", 0.155], ["2017-05-05", 0.155], ["2017-05-05", 0.155], ["2017-05-06", 0.155], ["2017-05-06", 0.155], ["2017-05-06", 0.155], ["2017-05-07", 0.155], ["2017-05-07", 0.155], ["2017-05-08", 0.15], ["2017-05-08", 0.16], ["2017-05-08", 0.16], ["2017-05-08", 0.16], ["2017-05-09", 0.15], ["2017-05-09", 0.15], ["2017-05-09", 0.15], ["2017-05-10", 0.15], ["2017-05-10", 0.15], ["2017-05-10", 0.15], ["2017-05-11", 0.15], ["2017-05-11", 0.15], ["2017-05-12", 0.155], ["2017-05-12", 0.155], ["2017-05-12", 0.155], ["2017-05-13", 0.155], ["2017-05-13", 0.155], ["2017-05-14", 0.145], ["2017-05-14", 0.145], ["2017-05-14", 0.145], ["2017-05-15", 0.145], ["2017-05-15", 0.145], ["2017-05-15", 0.145], 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0.16], ["2017-06-09", 0.16], ["2017-06-09", 0.16], ["2017-06-10", 0.16], ["2017-06-11", 0.16], ["2017-06-12", 0.16], ["2017-06-12", 0.16], ["2017-06-12", 0.16], ["2017-06-12", 0.2], ["2017-06-13", 0.2], ["2017-06-13", 0.2], ["2017-06-15", 0.2], ["2017-06-15", 0.2], ["2017-06-16", 0.2], ["2017-06-16", 0.2], ["2017-06-17", 0.2], ["2017-06-17", 0.2], ["2017-06-18", 0.2], ["2017-06-18", 0.2], ["2017-06-18", 0.2], ["2017-06-18", 0.2], ["2017-06-19", 0.2], ["2017-06-20", 0.225], ["2017-06-20", 0.245], ["2017-06-20", 0.245], ["2017-06-20", 0.25], ["2017-06-21", 0.25], ["2017-06-21", 0.25], ["2017-06-22", 0.25], ["2017-06-22", 0.25], ["2017-06-23", 0.25], ["2017-06-23", 0.25], ["2017-06-24", 0.25], ["2017-06-24", 0.25], ["2017-06-24", 0.25], ["2017-06-25", 0.25], ["2017-06-26", 0.25], ["2017-06-26", 0.25], ["2017-06-26", 0.25], ["2017-06-27", 0.25], ["2017-06-28", 0.25], ["2017-06-29", 0.25], ["2017-06-29", 0.25], ["2017-06-29", 0.25], ["2017-06-30", 0.25], ["2017-06-30", 0.25], ["2017-06-30", 0.25], ["2017-07-01", 0.25], ["2017-07-01", 0.25]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/445 | True |
2017-03-01 | Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017? | binary | A number of military setbacks have weakened Bashar al-Assad's grip on power and called into question the the commitment of his external supporters (<a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-33762809" target = "_blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/isis-terror/analysis-syrias-assad-set-be-abandoned-russia-iran-n403581" target = "_blank">NBC News</a>).
In the event that Assad reportedly disappears or flees the capital, the administrator will observe a three week waiting period, at the end of which the question will close retroactively to the date of his disappearance or exodus. If Assad returns in the interim, the question will remain open.
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</sub>
This question was closed on "No" with an end date of 28 February 2017.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | 2017-03-02 | gjopen | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Syria", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-russia-iran-idUSKBN15Q0CR", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-un-russia-idUSKBN16324L", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-britain-iraq-idUSKBN15Q0RO", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-un-idUSKBN16122B", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-brokering-analys-idUSKBN15V2QO", "https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russian-strategic-bombers-propel-syrian-army-western-palmyra/", "http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/assad-says-family-do-not-own-syria--ready-to-be-voted-out/42941416", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-assad-idUSKBN15P1AK", "http://www.cnn.com/2012/12/06/world/meast/bashar-al-assad---fast-facts/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/02/23/syria-peace-talks-resume-but-assad-is-in-the-drivers-seat/?utm_term=.f35ed3758b90", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-rebels-idUSKBN1601BD", "http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/irans-new-way-war-syria", "https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/08/world/middleeast/defiant-assad-vows-to-retake-every-inch-of-syria-from-his-foes.html?_r=0", "http://gulfnews.com/news/mena/syria/syria-army-ramps-up-shelling-near-damascus-ahead-of-talks-1.1981646", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-mistura-idUSKBN15Y0EJ?mod=related&channelName=worldNews", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-syrias-assad-tells-yahoo-news-some-refugees-are-definitely-terrorists-182401926.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_Civil_War", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-un-syria-securitycouncil-idUSKBN1631XP", "http://www.bbc.com/news/10338256", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/20/world/middleeast/russia-syria-war.html?_r=0", "http://plenglish.com/index.php?o=rn&id=9515&SEO=syrian-army-continues-offensive-against-terrorists", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-turkey-idUSKBN15P19B", "http://nationalinterest.org/feature/hezbollah-winning-the-war-syria-19229", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-un-idUSKBN16122B?il=0"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2015-09-01 | 0.0 | [["2015-09-02", 0.325], ["2015-09-03", 0.325], ["2015-09-04", 0.3], ["2015-09-05", 0.35], ["2015-09-07", 0.315], ["2015-09-08", 0.315], ["2015-09-09", 0.315], ["2015-09-10", 0.3], ["2015-09-11", 0.3], ["2015-09-11", 0.3], ["2015-09-12", 0.3], ["2015-09-13", 0.3], ["2015-09-14", 0.3], ["2015-09-14", 0.3], ["2015-09-15", 0.3], ["2015-09-15", 0.3], ["2015-09-16", 0.3], ["2015-09-16", 0.3], ["2015-09-16", 0.3], ["2015-09-17", 0.3], ["2015-09-17", 0.3], ["2015-09-18", 0.3], ["2015-09-18", 0.3], ["2015-09-20", 0.3], ["2015-09-21", 0.3], ["2015-09-22", 0.3], ["2015-09-23", 0.3], ["2015-09-25", 0.3], ["2015-09-26", 0.295], ["2015-09-26", 0.28], ["2015-09-27", 0.28], ["2015-09-28", 0.28], 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2017-11-30 | Will Russia execute and/or sponsor a low or higher level cyber attack against networks owned by a US entity between 19 September 2017 and 30 November 2017? | binary | At least part of the attack must occur during the question's open period. The question will be suspended on 30 November 2017 and resolved on 31 January 2018 to allow for delayed reporting. The following levels of cyber attack will all count: Low-Level Cyber Attacks create temporary and/or localized disruption of services that are dependent on networked infrastructure but do not threaten the core functionality of critical infrastructure targets. For example, a series of distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks against banking websites-while widespread-would cause only temporary disruption of Internet access to customer's bank accounts. They would not affect customer account balances or other banking services such as ATM withdrawals, nor would they disrupt the larger financial system, although the affected banks would incur losses because of the mitigation and other costs. Moderate-Level Cyber Attacks create localized, nonpersistent disruption to core functionality of critical services and functions but do not generate substantive systemic or national-level effects. For example, a cyber-attack that disrupted a single power plant for a couple of hours-equivalent to a temporary local power outage from a snow storm-would qualify as a moderate-level cyber attack. High-Level Cyber Attacks disrupt critical infrastructure services and generate substantive systemic or national-level effects over an extended period of time. For example, a cyber attack that reduced oil pipeline transport across a key region and resulted in a spike in national oil prices over the course of a month would qualify as a high-level cyber attack. Catastrophic Cyber Attacks affect the fundamental viability of core government, military, or economic services or functions; or cause significant loss of life or widespread property damage. For example, a cyber attack against critical infrastructures that caused an economic depression would qualify as a catastrophic cyber attack. A US entity can be governmental, commercial, academic, nonprofit or an individual. For the question to resolve as 'yes', the government of Russia must sponsor or execute the attack. Outcome will be determined by credible open source cybersecurity industry analysis or media reporting (e.g., Crowdstrike, FireEye, ThreatConnect, Symantec, McAfee, Reuters, BBC, AP).
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This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 30 November 2017
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<hr>
| 2018-03-16 | gjopen | ["https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/hacking-of-america/russian-president-vladimir-putin-signs-bill-targeting-u-s-foreign-n823901", "https://www.voanews.com/a/nato-sees-growing-russia-china-challenge/4141311.html", "https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/russian-journalist-explains-how-the-kremlin-instructed-him-to-cover-the-2016-election", "https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-putin-signs-foreign-agent-media-law-rferl-voa-cnn-deutsche-welle/28876680.html", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/25/europe/us-russia-extradition-fight/index.html", "http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/ct-russian-hackers-fbi-20171126-story.html", "https://futurism.com/future-cybersecurity-quantum-encryption/", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-42141945", "http://eu-policies.com/competences/economy/digital-economy/europes-rushing-counter-russias-cyber-attacks/", "http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-putin-russia-leverage-israel-intelligence-2017-11", "http://thehill.com/361764-sec-hack-was-preceded-by-years-of-warnings-about-lax-cybersecuity", "https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/canadian-hacker-who-conspired-and-aided-russian-fsb-officers-pleads-guilty", "https://www.axios.com/putin-will-double-down-on-active-measures-2512821627.html?utm_source=sidebar", "https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_149233.htm", "http://www.nextgov.com/cybersecurity/2017/11/government-has-completed-phase-two-kaspersky-ban/142836/", "https://www.rferl.org/a/tillerson-european-security-russian-threat/28884642.html", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-cyber-facebook/german-domestic-spy-agency-hits-out-at-silicon-valley-idUSKBN1DR1XA", "http://thehill.com/opinion/cybersecurity/362193-cia-and-nsa-codes-are-on-the-web-and-the-leakers-could-be-in-the", "https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-us-czech-court-rules-nikulin-hacking-suspect-may-be-extradited/28874803.html", "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/upguard-cybersecurity-company-finds-classified-nsa-army-data-online/", "https://in.reuters.com/article/kaspersky-cyber/kaspersky-ceo-says-he-would-leave-if-russia-asked-him-to-spy-idINKBN1DT0I0", "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ap-investigation-russia-hackers-phishing-emails-fbi-policy/", "https://www.csoonline.com/article/3238472/phishing/the-internets-dark-triad-that-we-need-to-protect-ourselves-against.html", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-cyber/germany-may-need-constitutional-change-to-allow-it-to-strike-back-at-hackers-idUSKBN1DR1J7", "https://www.voanews.com/a/tillerson-europe-russia/4140616.html"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-09-19 | 0.0 | [["2017-09-19", 1.0], ["2017-09-19", 1.0], ["2017-09-19", 0.5], ["2017-09-19", 0.25], ["2017-09-19", 0.25], ["2017-09-19", 0.0], ["2017-09-20", 0.0], ["2017-09-20", 0.05], ["2017-09-20", 0.025], ["2017-09-20", 0.1], ["2017-09-20", 0.3], ["2017-09-20", 0.45], ["2017-09-20", 0.15], 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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/610 | True |
2018-04-01 | Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?
| binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Burundi from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as No. (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/EWPJan2018Dec2018"target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a>)
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. | 2019-12-09 | gjopen | ["https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/by.html"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-12-28 | 0.0 | [["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.125], ["2017-12-29", 0.175], ["2017-12-29", 0.05], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.035], ["2017-12-29", 0.035], ["2017-12-30", 0.035], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.02], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.03], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.02], ["2017-12-31", 0.015], ["2017-12-31", 0.015], ["2018-01-01", 0.015], ["2018-01-01", 0.02], ["2018-01-01", 0.02], ["2018-01-01", 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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/838 | True |
2019-03-31 | Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from South Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in South Sudan? | binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in South Sudan from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://earlywarningproject.ushmm.org"target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this.
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| 2020-03-18 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2018-12-28 | 0.0 | [["2018-12-28", 0.08], ["2018-12-28", 0.09], ["2018-12-29", 0.09], ["2018-12-29", 0.08], ["2018-12-29", 0.1], ["2018-12-29", 0.09], ["2018-12-31", 0.09], ["2018-12-31", 0.075], ["2019-01-02", 0.06], ["2019-01-03", 0.055], ["2019-01-03", 0.05], ["2019-01-04", 0.02], ["2019-01-04", 0.035], ["2019-01-04", 0.02], ["2019-01-06", 0.035], ["2019-01-06", 0.035], ["2019-01-06", 0.035], ["2019-01-06", 0.035], ["2019-01-06", 0.125], ["2019-01-06", 0.335], ["2019-01-07", 0.335], ["2019-01-07", 0.335], ["2019-01-07", 0.335], ["2019-01-07", 0.175], ["2019-01-09", 0.175], ["2019-01-11", 0.175], ["2019-01-13", 0.125], ["2019-01-13", 0.1], ["2019-01-13", 0.1], ["2019-01-15", 0.1], ["2019-01-16", 0.1], ["2019-01-18", 0.1], ["2019-01-20", 0.125], ["2019-01-20", 0.125], ["2019-01-22", 0.125], ["2019-01-23", 0.13], ["2019-01-26", 0.155], ["2019-01-28", 0.2], ["2019-01-31", 0.2], ["2019-02-01", 0.2], ["2019-02-01", 0.2], ["2019-02-03", 0.17], ["2019-02-05", 0.17], ["2019-02-08", 0.17], ["2019-02-08", 0.14], ["2019-02-11", 0.14], ["2019-02-12", 0.14], ["2019-02-16", 0.14], ["2019-02-16", 0.14], ["2019-02-20", 0.14], ["2019-02-23", 0.14], ["2019-02-24", 0.14], ["2019-02-26", 0.14], ["2019-02-28", 0.14], ["2019-02-28", 0.17], ["2019-02-28", 0.11], ["2019-03-01", 0.11], ["2019-03-01", 0.095], ["2019-03-04", 0.095], ["2019-03-05", 0.065], ["2019-03-07", 0.05], ["2019-03-07", 0.05], ["2019-03-09", 0.05], ["2019-03-09", 0.05], ["2019-03-10", 0.05], ["2019-03-11", 0.05], ["2019-03-11", 0.05], ["2019-03-11", 0.05], ["2019-03-12", 0.05], ["2019-03-12", 0.05], ["2019-03-13", 0.05], ["2019-03-14", 0.05], ["2019-03-19", 0.05], ["2019-03-22", 0.05], ["2019-03-22", 0.05], ["2019-03-25", 0.05], ["2019-03-28", 0.05], ["2019-03-29", 0.05], ["2019-03-29", 0.05], ["2019-03-30", 0.05], ["2019-03-31", 0.05]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1085 | True |
2017-10-01 | Will Vladimir Putin or Donald Trump host the other for an official bilateral visit before 1 October 2017? | binary | Clarification issued 12/12/2016: The question was updated to ask about an official bilateral visit.
Joint attendance at multilateral meetings will not count. President-elect Trump has repeatedly praised Vladimir Putin (<a href="http://www.theworldin.com/article/12602/trumpquake" target="_blank">The World in 2017</a>, <a href="http://time.com/4564254/president-donald-trump-russia-vladimir-putin/" target="_blank">Time</a>, <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/vladimir-putin-aide-donald-trump-russia-leader-very-much-alike-worldview/" target="_blank">CBS News</a>). President Obama's 2009 visit to Moscow is an example of an official bilateral visit (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/08/world/europe/08prexy.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>).
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Neither Trump, nor Putin hosted the other for an official state visit. This question closed as "No," with and end date of 1 October 2017."
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<hr> | 2017-10-04 | gjopen | ["http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/352732-sessions-media-portrays-russia-investigation-in-ways-not-justifiable", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-congress-cyber-russia/senator-says-russian-internet-trolls-stoked-nfl-debate-idUSKCN1C237J", "https://www.voanews.com/a/twitter-tells-congress-shut-down-two-hundred-accounts-linked-to-russia/4048833.html", "https://www.voanews.com/a/us-ambassador-to-russia-confirmed/4049419.html", "https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/29/russian-facebook-ads-how-many-people-could-you-reach-with-100000.html", "http://www.marketwatch.com/story/google-deepens-probe-of-russian-meddling-in-us-election-amid-congressional-pressure-2017-09-30", "https://www.statnews.com/2017/09/29/trump-mental-health-book/", "https://www.voanews.com/a/tweeter-to-meet-with-congressional-committes-russia-election-probe/4047814.html", "https://www.voanews.com/a/unintended-consequences-catching-up-to-facebook/4050800.html", "https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-trolls-fan-us-controversy-over-football-player-protests-senator-lankford-says-intelligence-committee-election-investigation/28761686.html", "https://www.rferl.org/a/us-military-chief-dunford-says-recommends-providing-ukraine-lethal-defensive-aid/28759423.html", "http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/28/mike-pence-robert-mueller-lawyer-meeting-russia-243275", "https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-morgan-freeman-troll-target-putin/28749400.html", "http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/29/mccain-cardin-trump-russia-sanctions-243312", "https://www.rferl.org/a/us-senate-unanimously-confirms-huntsman-us-ambassador-russia/28763625.html", "https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/the-time-cure/201709/the-dangerous-case-donald-trump", "http://time.com/4960547/russia-roscosmos-nasa-moon-space-station/", "http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-pol-twitter-russia-20170928-story.html", "http://thehill.com/policy/national-security/353102-trump-faces-key-deadline-on-russia-sanctions", "http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/opinion/the-conversation/sd-how-much-money-russians-spent-twitter-facebook-ads-20170928-htmlstory.html", "http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/353211-mueller-begins-interviewing-white-house-staff-in-collusion-probe", "https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/space-u-s-russia-friendship-untethered-n806101", "http://www.marketwatch.com/story/russian-citizen-steven-seagal-under-siege-for-his-take-on-disgusting-anthem-protests-2017-09-27", "http://www.businessinsider.com/russians-facebook-black-lives-matter-muslim-group-disinformation-2017-9", "https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/russian-trolls-using-nfl-protests-sow-discord-online-republican-senator-n805296"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-11-22 | 0.0 | [["2016-11-22", 0.8], ["2016-11-22", 0.85], ["2016-11-22", 0.925], ["2016-11-23", 0.85], ["2016-11-23", 0.85], ["2016-11-23", 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2017-07-04 | Will North Korea launch a land-based intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) before 1 November 2017? | binary | North Korea's missile program is a cause of concern for mutiple actors in the region and beyond, particularly regarding the development of ICBM capabilities (<a href = "http://38north.org/2017/01/jschilling011217/"target="_blank">38 North</a>, <a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-17399847"target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "https://www.wsj.com/articles/north-korea-missile-test-stirs-icbm-fears-1488802971"target="_blank">WSJ</a>, <a href = "http://www.popsci.com/north-korea-testing-intercontinental-missiles-icbm"target="_blank">Popular Science</a>, <a href = "http://edition.cnn.com/2017/01/19/asia/north-korea-missiles/"target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href = "http://38north.org/2017/01/jschilling011217/"target="_blank">38 North</a>, <a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/04/world/asia/north-korea-missile-program-sabotage.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>).
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<hr>
On July 4th 2017, NK launched an ICBM (<a href = "http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20170705000213"target="_blank">The Korea Herald</a>, <a href = "https://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2017/07/272340.htm"target="_blank">U.S. Department of State</a>, <a href = "https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/north-korea-successfully-tests-its-first-icbm"target="_blank">Stratfor</a>). This question was closed as "a) Yes" with an end date of July 4th 2017
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<hr> | 2017-07-10 | gjopen | ["http://www.38north.org/2017/06/wgraham060217/", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-40491138", "https://www.yahoo.com/gma/north-korea-claims-tested-first-intercontinental-missile-070907829--abc-news-topstories.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-04/north-korea-claims-successful-intercontinental-missile-launch", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/defying-international-pressure-north-korea-tests-another-missile/2017/07/03/d814d880-fb23-401e-aef1-e78068077a7f_story.html", "http://www.38north.org/2017/04/jschilling042117/", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-blocks-un-statement-calling-n-korea-sanctions-145320489.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-idUSKBN19P02W", "http://www.38north.org/2017/07/jschilling070517/", "http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-04/where-could-a-north-korean-icbm-hit/8678296", "https://www.ted.com/talks/bruce_bueno_de_mesquita_predicts_iran_s_future", "https://lagunita.stanford.edu/courses/course-v1:Engineering+NuclearBrink+Fall2016/about", "http://edition.cnn.com/2017/07/04/politics/us-officials-meet-north-korea-missile-launch/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xo5SBhuPO8I", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZhX4__wwTWk", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/04/politics/us-officials-meet-north-korea-missile-launch/index.html", "http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-secret-to-kim%E2%80%99s-success-some-experts-see-russian-echoes-in-north-korea%E2%80%99s-missile-advances/ar-BBE0Gar?ocid=spartandhp", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-40491138", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/north-korea-missile-launch-hands-trump-foreign-policy-crisis-1499182303", "http://www.worldatlas.com/articles/the-most-crowded-city-in-the-united-states.html", "http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/un-security-council-to-hold-emergency-meeting-on-north-korea/articleshow/59449775.cms", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-china-xi-northkorea-idUSKBN19P1Q7", "http://edition.cnn.com/2017/07/04/politics/us-officials-meet-north-korea-missile-launch/index.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/04/world/asia/north-korea-missile-test-icbm.html"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-04-18 | 1.0 | [["2017-04-18", 0.95], ["2017-04-18", 0.625], ["2017-04-18", 0.75], ["2017-04-18", 1.0], ["2017-04-18", 0.675], ["2017-04-19", 0.7], ["2017-04-19", 0.7], ["2017-04-19", 0.7], ["2017-04-19", 0.605], ["2017-04-20", 0.4], ["2017-04-20", 0.385], ["2017-04-20", 0.52], ["2017-04-21", 0.395], ["2017-04-21", 0.52], ["2017-04-21", 0.52], ["2017-04-22", 0.445], ["2017-04-22", 0.42], ["2017-04-22", 0.44], ["2017-04-22", 0.44], ["2017-04-23", 0.52], ["2017-04-23", 0.49], ["2017-04-23", 0.65], ["2017-04-23", 0.585], ["2017-04-23", 0.595], 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2017-12-27 | Before 27 December 2017, will Brazil's Chamber of Deputies vote to send Brazil's President Michel Temer to a Supreme Court or Senate trial? | binary | According to the constitution of Brazil, a two-thirds vote is required for the Chamber of Deputies to authorize a trial by the Supreme Court or the Senate. For more information see <a href = "http://www.servat.unibe.ch/icl/br00000_.html"target="_blank">Title IV, Chapter II, Section III, Article 86 of Brazil's Constitution </a>. After surviving a Chamber of Deputies vote on authorization of a Supreme Court trial in August 2017, Brazilian President Michel Temer faces a new set of corruption charges (<a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-41275822"target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics/new-brazil-graft-charge-may-be-tougher-for-temer-to-stop-maia-idUSKCN1BF22V"target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-04/cost-of-loyalty-rises-for-brazil-s-temer-ahead-of-new-charges"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href = "http://www.latimes.com/world/mexico-americas/la-fg-brazil-temer-20170802-story.html"target="_blank">LA Times</a>).
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<hr>
The Chamber of Deputies did not vote to send Brazil's President Michel Temer to a Supreme Court or Senate trial. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 27 December 2017.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. | 2017-12-28 | gjopen | ["https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-corruption-temer/brazil-congressional-report-recommends-shelving-temer-charges-idUSKBN1CF2W4", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/595754", "https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/543727-plans-are-of-little-importance-but-planning-is-essential", "https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2017-10-25/brazils-temer-in-hospital-after-feeling-ill-globo-news-tv", "https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2017-10-26/split-in-temer-ruling-coalition-likely-dooms-reform-agenda", "http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=10951", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/25/world/americas/brazil-michel-temer-corruption.html", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-corruption/brazil-supreme-court-allows-congress-last-word-on-removal-of-lawmakers-idUSKBN1CH02N", "https://www.gisreportsonline.com/brazils-embattled-president-is-still-not-in-the-clear,expert-view,2308.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-11-01/10-points-about-forecasting-and-why-we-stink-at-it", "https://www.ft.com/content/22ce409a-b464-11e7-a398-73d59db9e399", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-41755666"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-10-09 | 0.0 | [["2017-10-11", 0.8], ["2017-10-11", 0.6], ["2017-10-11", 0.625], ["2017-10-12", 0.375], ["2017-10-12", 0.075], ["2017-10-12", 0.05], ["2017-10-12", 0.05], ["2017-10-12", 0.05], ["2017-10-12", 0.035], ["2017-10-12", 0.035], ["2017-10-12", 0.02], ["2017-10-12", 0.0], ["2017-10-12", 0.0], ["2017-10-12", 0.0], ["2017-10-12", 0.0], ["2017-10-12", 0.0], ["2017-10-12", 0.0], ["2017-10-12", 0.0], ["2017-10-12", 0.0], ["2017-10-12", 0.0], 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2018-11-06 | Will Dean Heller (R-NV) be re-elected this November? | binary | Senator Dean Heller (R-NV) is seeking re-election on 6 November 2018 (<a href = "https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Nevada,_2018"target="_blank">Ballotpedia</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
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2020-01-01 | Will Serbia and Kosovo reach a comprehensive normalization agreement before 1 January 2020?
| binary | The EU is pushing Serbia to reach a comprehensive normalization agreement with Kosovo by the end of 2019 (<a href="https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/349/dialogue-between-belgrade-and-pristina_en" target="_blank">European Union External Action</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-kosovo-government-serbs/kosovo-serbs-quit-ruling-coalition-over-detention-of-serbia-official-idUSKBN1H326T" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/no-progress-reported-talks-vucic-thaci-normalize-relations-kosovo-serbia-brussels/29120862.html" target="_blank">Radio Free Europe</a>). The lack of progress on a normalization agreement remains a critical obstacle to EU accession (<a href="http://prishtinainsight.com/kosovo-serbia-normalization-agreement-key-benchmark-eu-accession/" target="_blank">Prishtina Insight</a>), which Serbia continues to seek despite it's ally Russia's reservations about the expansion process (<a href="http://www.dw.com/en/serbia-balances-between-russia-and-the-west/a-41854351" target="_blank">Deutsche Welle</a>).
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["2019-05-13", 0.055], ["2019-05-14", 0.05], ["2019-05-17", 0.05], ["2019-05-17", 0.05], ["2019-05-17", 0.05], ["2019-05-17", 0.05], ["2019-05-19", 0.05], ["2019-05-21", 0.05], ["2019-05-22", 0.05], ["2019-05-24", 0.05], ["2019-05-24", 0.05], ["2019-05-26", 0.05], ["2019-05-27", 0.05], ["2019-05-28", 0.05], ["2019-05-28", 0.05], ["2019-05-29", 0.05], ["2019-05-31", 0.05], ["2019-06-03", 0.05], ["2019-06-04", 0.05], ["2019-06-07", 0.05], ["2019-06-09", 0.05], ["2019-06-13", 0.05], ["2019-06-14", 0.05], ["2019-06-18", 0.05], ["2019-06-25", 0.05], ["2019-06-26", 0.05], ["2019-06-27", 0.05], ["2019-06-28", 0.05], ["2019-06-30", 0.05], ["2019-07-02", 0.05], ["2019-07-04", 0.05], ["2019-07-10", 0.05], ["2019-07-13", 0.05], ["2019-07-15", 0.05], ["2019-07-16", 0.05], ["2019-07-19", 0.05], ["2019-07-21", 0.05], ["2019-07-21", 0.05], ["2019-07-22", 0.05], ["2019-07-25", 0.05], ["2019-07-31", 0.05], ["2019-08-01", 0.05], ["2019-08-03", 0.045], ["2019-08-05", 0.05], ["2019-08-10", 0.05], ["2019-08-13", 0.04], ["2019-08-13", 0.04], ["2019-08-15", 0.04], ["2019-08-20", 0.04], ["2019-08-21", 0.035], ["2019-08-22", 0.03], ["2019-08-23", 0.03], ["2019-08-25", 0.03], ["2019-08-31", 0.025], ["2019-09-01", 0.02], ["2019-09-05", 0.02], ["2019-09-10", 0.02], ["2019-09-11", 0.02], ["2019-09-13", 0.02], ["2019-09-17", 0.02], ["2019-09-22", 0.02], ["2019-09-26", 0.02], ["2019-09-30", 0.02], ["2019-10-02", 0.02], ["2019-10-06", 0.02], ["2019-10-07", 0.02], ["2019-10-09", 0.02], ["2019-10-10", 0.02], ["2019-10-14", 0.02], ["2019-10-20", 0.02], ["2019-10-22", 0.02], ["2019-10-23", 0.015], ["2019-10-26", 0.015], ["2019-10-27", 0.01], ["2019-10-30", 0.01], ["2019-11-02", 0.01], ["2019-11-06", 0.01], ["2019-11-11", 0.01], ["2019-11-15", 0.01], ["2019-11-16", 0.01], ["2019-11-17", 0.01], ["2019-11-20", 0.01], ["2019-11-23", 0.01], ["2019-11-26", 0.01], ["2019-11-28", 0.01], ["2019-12-01", 0.01], ["2019-12-03", 0.01], ["2019-12-04", 0.01], ["2019-12-07", 0.01], ["2019-12-08", 0.01], ["2019-12-10", 0.01], ["2019-12-11", 0.01], ["2019-12-12", 0.01], ["2019-12-14", 0.01], ["2019-12-16", 0.01], ["2019-12-16", 0.01], ["2019-12-20", 0.01], ["2019-12-21", 0.01], ["2019-12-22", 0.005], ["2019-12-23", 0.005], ["2019-12-24", 0.005], ["2019-12-25", 0.0], ["2019-12-26", 0.0], ["2019-12-27", 0.0], ["2019-12-27", 0.0], ["2019-12-29", 0.0], ["2019-12-29", 0.0], ["2019-12-30", 0.0], ["2019-12-31", 0.0], ["2020-01-01", 0.0], ["2020-01-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/937 | True |
2019-01-01 | Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia? | binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and will be resolved in October 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Ethiopia from October 2018 to September 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples
" target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJO's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.<p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. For more information on the resolution of this EWP question and its companion questions, see "<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpoct18sep19#" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Early Warning Project Question Resolutions: October 1, 2018-September 30, 2019</a>."</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2020-01-05 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2018-09-28 | 0.0 | [["2018-09-29", 0.0], ["2018-09-29", 0.0], ["2018-09-29", 0.0], ["2018-09-29", 0.005], ["2018-09-30", 0.01], ["2018-09-30", 0.015], ["2018-10-01", 0.015], ["2018-10-01", 0.02], ["2018-10-01", 0.02], ["2018-10-03", 0.02], ["2018-10-04", 0.015], ["2018-10-05", 0.015], ["2018-10-06", 0.015], ["2018-10-06", 0.01], ["2018-10-07", 0.005], ["2018-10-09", 0.005], ["2018-10-11", 0.005], ["2018-10-12", 0.015], ["2018-10-12", 0.015], ["2018-10-14", 0.02], ["2018-10-16", 0.01], ["2018-10-16", 0.01], ["2018-10-18", 0.01], ["2018-10-20", 0.01], ["2018-10-21", 0.01], ["2018-10-25", 0.01], ["2018-10-28", 0.01], ["2018-10-28", 0.02], ["2018-10-30", 0.02], ["2018-10-30", 0.02], ["2018-10-31", 0.02], ["2018-11-01", 0.015], ["2018-11-06", 0.015], ["2018-11-06", 0.005], ["2018-11-06", 0.005], ["2018-11-08", 0.01], ["2018-11-08", 0.01], ["2018-11-10", 0.01], ["2018-11-11", 0.01], ["2018-11-13", 0.005], ["2018-11-15", 0.005], ["2018-11-15", 0.005], ["2018-11-16", 0.005], ["2018-11-18", 0.005], ["2018-11-19", 0.005], ["2018-11-20", 0.005], ["2018-11-25", 0.005], ["2018-11-26", 0.03], ["2018-11-26", 0.075], ["2018-11-28", 0.075], ["2018-12-05", 0.075], ["2018-12-06", 0.125], ["2018-12-07", 0.1], ["2018-12-07", 0.1], ["2018-12-08", 0.1], ["2018-12-09", 0.1], ["2018-12-09", 0.1], ["2018-12-13", 0.1], ["2018-12-13", 0.1], ["2018-12-13", 0.075], ["2018-12-14", 0.075], ["2018-12-15", 0.05], ["2018-12-16", 0.05], ["2018-12-19", 0.05], ["2018-12-20", 0.05], ["2018-12-23", 0.04], ["2018-12-24", 0.025], ["2018-12-24", 0.025], ["2018-12-28", 0.02], ["2018-12-28", 0.035], ["2018-12-31", 0.035], ["2019-01-01", 0.035]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1016 | True |
2017-01-23 | Before 15 February 2017, will the United Kingdom's Supreme Court rule that an additional act of the U.K. Parliament is required to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty? | binary | This question was closed as "Yes" with an end date of 23 January 2017. The Supreme Court ruled that an act of Parliament was required to invoke Article 50 (<a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-38720320"target = "_blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/24/world/europe/theresa-may-brexit-vote-article-50.html"target = "_blank">NY Times</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
The United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union in a referendum in June 2016 and Prime Minister May has planned to begin that process by invoking Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty in March 2017, but a recent High Court ruling stipulated that the government could not do so without an additional act of Parliament (<a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-37857785"target = "_blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "http://www.wsj.com/articles/brexit-legal-challenge-set-for-court-ruling-1478159686"target = "_blank">Wall Street Journal, <a href="https://www.judiciary.gov.uk/judgments/r-miller-v-secretary-of-state-for-exiting-the-european-union/"target = "_blank">Judiciary UK</a>). The government appealed the High Court's ruling and the Supreme Court is now is expected to issue its decision in January (<a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-38200115"target = "_blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/uk-governments-brexit-plans-in-hands-of-supreme-court/2016/12/05/665f96a8-baa8-11e6-ae79-bec72d34f8c9_story.html?utm_term=.b82abf0d6a82"target = "_blank">Washington Post</a>). Rulings pertaining to the devolved parliaments of Wales, Northern Ireland, or Scotland will not affect the resolution of this question.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/238-when-will-the-united-kingdom-invoke-article-50-of-the-lisbon-treaty"target = "_blank">when the UK will invoke Article 50</a> or on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/237"target = "_blank">any other European Union (EU) member state will set a date for a referendum on leaving the EU</a>.</sub>
| 2017-01-25 | gjopen | ["http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/427748", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38219928", "https://www.supremecourt.uk/cases/docs/uksc-2016-0196-judgment.pdf", "https://www.ft.com/content/6f771e04-8135-3bbc-82eb-21018ff18e55", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/11/government-brexit-supreme-court-theresa-may-article-50", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/jan/24/supreme-court-article-50-judgement-announces-its-article-50-judgment-politics-live", "https://www.supremecourt.uk/news/access-arrangements-for-24-january-article-50-brexit-judgment.html", "https://www.headoflegal.com/2016/11/04/why-the-high-court-got-the-law-wrong-about-brexit/", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/03/high-court-brexit-ruling-what-does-it-all-mean", "http://www.legalcheek.com/2016/12/the-bookies-odds-will-the-supreme-court-overturn-the-high-courts-brexit-ruling/", "http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/06/brexit-exit-poll"", "https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/733479/Article-50-appeal-when-is-hearing-dates-Supreme-Court-what-means-Brexit-EU-exit/amp", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38200115", "http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/supreme-court-brexit-case-explained-9392428", "http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx", "https://www.supremecourt.uk/news/future-judgments.html", "http://www.euroexchangeratenews.co.uk/investors-profiting-brexit-speech-pound-exchange-rates-22823", "http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/who-supreme-court-judges-brexit-9391170?service=responsive", "http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-38720320", "https://www.supremecourt.uk/news/the-supreme-court-annual-report-and-accounts.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/18/supreme-court-to-deliver-brexit-ruling-24-january", "https://www.supremecourt.uk/news/article-50-brexit-appeal.html"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-01-10 | 1.0 | [["2017-01-11", 0.95], ["2017-01-11", 0.85], 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2016-12-31 | Will anti-Islamic State forces retake Mosul before 1 January 2017? | binary | This question was closed on "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. (<a href = "http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/12/22/the-battle-to-retake-mosul-is-stalemated/"target = "_blank">Foreign Policy</a>, <a href = "http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-mideast-crisis-iraq-mosul-idUKKBN14K08X"target = "_blank">Reuters</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
Mosul still appears firmly in the Islamic State's grasp, even as the Iraqi military seems to be making progress in an effort to retake Ramadi and Kurdish forces have rolled back some of the group's territorial gains in Northern Iraq (<a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/01/us/politics/iraqi-forces-prepare-next-us-backed-attack-on-isis-with-mosul-on-horizon.html" target = "_blank">NYTimes</a>, <a href = "http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/11/12/kurds-assault-isis-in-sinjar-with-eyes-on-mosul/" target = "_blank">Foreign Policy</a>, <a href = "http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/09/life-under-isis-raqqa-mosul-giant-prison-syria-iraq" target = "_blank">Guardian</a>, <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/iraqi-coalition-forces-repel-islamic-state-counterattack-in-ramadi-1449690502" target = "_blank">WSJ</a>).
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2016-07-01 | Will Russia conduct a naval exercise in the Western Hemisphere with a Central or South American country before 1 July 2016? | binary | This question resolved on 30 June 2016: Russia continues to plan for expanded influence in the Western Hemisphere, and to project naval power more broadly, but has not conducted any exercises during this timeframe (<a href="http://www.centerforsecuritypolicy.org/2016/04/21/russian-naval-expansion-threatens-u-s-influence-in-the-western-hemisphere/" target="_blank">Center for Security Policy</a>, <a href="http://thediplomat.com/2016/06/russias-pacific-fleet-to-hold-dozens-of-large-scale-exercises-this-summer/" target="_blank">The Diplomat</a>)
Table top exercises, war games, and simulations would not suffice to resolve the question. Russia conducted military exercises with Venezuela in 2008 and again in 2015 (<a href = "http://www.telesurtv.net/english/analysis/Venezuela-Hopes-for-the-Best-Prepares-for-the-Worst-20150314-0003.html" target = "_blank">teleSUR</a>, <a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/09/world/americas/09venez.html" target = "_blank">NY Times</a>). Recently, the Russian government has indicated that it might conduct joint military exercises with forces from Cuba and/or Nicaragua (<a href = "http://europe.newsweek.com/russia-plans-joint-military-drills-north-korea-and-cuba-303836" target = "_blank">Newsweek</a>, <a href = "http://www.southernpulse.info/blog/russia-strengthens-ties-with-nicaragua-and-increases-military-presence" target = "_blank">Southern Pulse</a>).
For the purposes of this question, Central America includes Mexico and the Caribbean.
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2016-07-01 | Will either the Palestinian Authority or Israel announce a halt in security cooperation before 1 July 2016? | binary | This question resolved on 30 June 2016: Security cooperation remains in place (<a href="http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/1.712120" target="_blank">Hareetz</a>, <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/10/opinions/tel-aviv-attack-implications-miller/" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2016/03/palestinian-israeli-security-cooperation-160309091052648.html" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>).
In 2016, crises elsewhere in the Middle East will distract from the Palestinian question, which smoulders on (<a href = "http://www.theworldin.com/article/10495" target = "_blank">The World in 2016</a>). The formal security cooperation between Israel and the Palestinian Authority (PA) established by the Oslo Accords has only been suspended once, during the second intifada (<a href = "http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/01/palestine-israel-security-cooperation-al-qaeda-global-jihad.html" target = "_blank">Al-Monitor</a>). Although escalating violence has heightened concerns about a new intifada and the Palestinian Liberation Organization attempted to halt cooperation in the spring of 2015, security cooperation between the PA and Israel has continued (<a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/26/world/middleeast/caught-between-protesters-and-israel-palestinian-security-forces-shift-tactics.html" target = "_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34446614" target = "_blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/10/palestine-authority-israel-security-cooperation-negotiations.html" target = "_blank">Al-Monitor</a>, <a href = "http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/preserving-israeli-palestinian-security-cooperation" target = "_blank">Washington Institute</a> ).
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2018-02-14 | Will Jacob Zuma cease to be president of South Africa before 1 July 2018? | binary | A controversial cabinet reshuffling brings new protests for the South African President to step down (<a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-39526313" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/04/south-africa-anc-president-jacob-zuma-170406020948329.html" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-safrica-politics-idUSKBN18Y14U" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). In the event that Zuma reportedly disappears or flees the capital, a three-week waiting period will be observed, at the end of which the question will close retroactively to the date of his disappearance or exodus. If Zuma returns in the interim, the question will remain open.
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<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/483-before-1-october-2018-will-the-un-security-council-pass-a-resolution-imposing-an-arms-embargo-on-south-sudan?challenge_id=12" target="_blank">Before 1 October 2018, will the UN Security Council pass a resolution imposing an arms embargo on South Sudan?</a></sub>
This question was closed as "yes" with an end date of 14 February 2018 (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/14/world/africa/jacob-zuma-resigns-south-africa.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>).
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<hr>
| 2018-02-15 | gjopen | ["https://twitter.com/ThabisoSithole/status/963059085284466690", "https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/13/africa/jacob-zuma-south-africa-recall-intl/index.html", "https://apnews.com/955b8e9fbe01472aa27ceb9c953cc745/South-African-ruling-party-leaders-to-meet-amid-Zuma-limbo", "https://www.watson.ch/!964164319?utm_source=whatsapp&utm_medium=social-user&utm_campaign=watson-app-ios", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/692132", "http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-13/jacob-zuma-given-48-hours-to-quit-as-south-africa-president/9425668", "https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2018-02-13-anc-will-recall-zuma-sources-say-after-nec-meeting/", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/02/south-africa-anc-decide-fate-jacob-zuma-180212085406703.html", "http://www.huffingtonpost.co.za/2018/02/13/vote-of-no-confidence-this-is-how-the-numbers-stack-up_a_23360024/", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/14/gupta-family-south-african-police-raid-zuma-anc", "https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/15/africa/south-africa-president-intl/index.html", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-43066443", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-safrica-politics/zuma-quits-ending-scandal-plagued-term-as-south-african-president-idUSKCN1FY0HM", "https://apnews.com/13dbc68fb66f4313976c575fe6b4f6c6/The-Latest:-South-Africa-could-have-new-leader-on-Thursday", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-safrica-politics-scenarios/scenarios-how-south-africas-zuma-could-leave-office-idUSKBN1FX1BU?il=0", "https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2018-02-13-everything-is-off-he-has-to-go-nec-gives-zuma-deadline-to-step-down/", "https://www.reuters.com/news/world", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-safrica-politics/anc-orders-zuma-to-step-down-as-south-african-president-idUSKBN1FW028?il=0", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/south-africas-anc-demands-zuma-resignation-threatening-no-confidence-vote/2018/02/14/02e1d06e-1173-11e8-9065-e55346f6de81_story.html?utm_term=.03afeafbaff9", "https://citizen.co.za/news/south-africa/1818561/step-down-or-face-vote-of-no-confidence-mantashe-warns-zuma/", "https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/zuma-defiant-till-the-end-as-party-moves-to-recall-him-20180213", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-43025713", "https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2018-02-12-ramaphosa-leaves-nec-meeting-but-still-no-answers-on-zumas-fate/", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-43039928", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/12/reports-that-south-africa-president-jacob-zuma-has-resigned-dismissed-by-anc"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-06-13 | 1.0 | [["2017-06-13", 0.37], ["2017-06-13", 0.2], ["2017-06-14", 0.1], ["2017-06-15", 0.165], ["2017-06-15", 0.25], ["2017-06-15", 0.15], ["2017-06-15", 0.15], ["2017-06-16", 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2018-10-06 | Will a new Supreme Court Justice be confirmed by the Senate before 6 November 2018? | binary | On 27 June, Justice Anthony Kennedy announced that he would retire from the Supreme Court effective 31 July (<a href = "http://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/393357-kennedy-announces-retirement-from-supreme-court"target="_blank">The Hill</a>, <a href = "http://www.scotusblog.com/2018/06/anthony-kennedy-swing-justice-announces-retirement/"target="_blank">SCOTUSBlog</a>). On 9 July, President Trump announced Judge Brett Kavanaugh as his choice to replace Justice Kennedy (<a href = "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-trump-nbc/trump-picks-conservative-kavanaugh-as-supreme-court-nominee-nbc-idUSKBN1K002C"target="_blank">Reuters</a>). Sen. Charles Grassley, Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, has said that there will be "plenty of time to confirm a nominee before the Supreme Court resumes hearing cases in October. (<a href = "https://www.radioiowa.com/2018/07/05/grassley-now-predicting-next-us-supreme-court-to-be-seated-before-oct-1/"target="_blank">Radio Iowa</a>)."
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This question closed as "yes" with an end date of 6 October 2018.
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2016-01-17 | Will restrictions on Iran's access to SWIFT be lifted before 1 August 2016? | binary | As part of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the EU agreed to remove restrictions on Iran's access to SWIFT once the IAEA has verified Iranian compliance (https://news.riskadvisory.net/2015/16/iran-summary-of-nuclear-deal-timeline-and-sanctions-relief/ , http://www.businessinsider.com/iran-deal-swift-banking-system-2015-7 , http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-15/iran-likely-to-wait-for-months-to-rejoin-global-banking-system ). For more information on the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication see https://www.swift.com/about_swift/index . | 2016-01-23 | gjopen | ["http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-01-16/iran-has-met-terms-of-international-nuclear-agreement-iaea-says", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/81103", "http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2016/01/01/461610337/as-iran-moves-swiftly-on-nuclear-deal-sanctions-could-go-soon", "https://www.swift.com/insights/press-releases/update_iran-sanctions-agreement", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/22/double-median-filter/", "https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/statements/iaea-director-general%E2%80%99s-statement-iran", "http://en.mehrnews.com/news/113212/SWIFT-sanctions-to-be-removed-in-coming-days", "http://www.voanews.com/content/iran-nuclear-deal-moves-to-new-phase/3012400.html", "http://www.ibtimes.com/iran-nuclear-deal-implementation-day-could-be-pushed-back-some-companies-already-2203305", "http://www.voanews.com/content/white-house-proposed-bill-would-prevent-us-implementation-of-iran-deal/3141247.html", "http://isis-online.org/uploads/isis-reports/documents/IAEA_PMD_Assessment_2Dec2015.pdf", "https://www.swift.com/about_swift/shownews?param_dcr=news.data/en/swift_com/2015/Iran_sanctions_agreement_update.xml", "http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/news/ap/kerry-to-meet-iranian-fm-ahead-of-imminent-sanctions-relief/article_9a603dd2-640a-53c0-9337-fce25c6aa7fd.html", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/15/monday-night-picks/", "https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/07/14/key-excerpts-joint-comprehensive-plan-action-jcpoa", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-02/iran-undertook-nuclear-bomb-studies-before-2009-iaea-finds", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/19/saturday-afternoon-update/", "http://www.marinetraffic.com/it/ais/home/centerx:51/centery:26/zoom:7", "http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/middle-east/iran-to-gain-swift-access-to-46bn-if-sanctions-lifted-1.2497086", "http://www.irannewsdaily.com/?lng=en&cid=CMSContent&content=3193", "http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/01/iran-sanctions-implementation-nuclear-deal.html?utm_source=Al-Monitor+Newsletter+%5BEnglish%5D&utm_campaign=256f195440-January_14_2016&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_28264b27a0-256f195440-102297633", "http://www.thedailybeast.com/cheats/2016/01/01/obama-delays-iran-missile-sanctions.html", "http://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2016/01/12/969632/number-of-centrifuges-in-iran-s-nuclear-site-down-to-1-044-mp", "http://bigstory.ap.org/article/78c98f06474d4481bcb9c50f43d0cb0a/pentagon-2-us-navy-boats-held-iran-will-be-returned", "http://www.businessinsider.com/obama-is-reportedly-planning-new-sanctions-on-iran-2015-12"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2015-09-14 | 1.0 | [["2015-09-14", 0.85], ["2015-09-15", 0.65], ["2015-09-15", 0.85], ["2015-09-15", 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["2016-01-13", 0.9], ["2016-01-13", 0.9], ["2016-01-13", 0.9], ["2016-01-13", 0.9], ["2016-01-13", 0.9], ["2016-01-14", 0.9], ["2016-01-14", 0.9], ["2016-01-14", 0.9], ["2016-01-15", 0.9], ["2016-01-15", 0.9], ["2016-01-16", 0.9], ["2016-01-16", 0.9], ["2016-01-16", 0.9], ["2016-01-16", 0.9], ["2016-01-16", 0.9], ["2016-01-16", 0.9], ["2016-01-16", 0.9], ["2016-01-16", 0.9], ["2016-01-16", 0.9], ["2016-01-16", 0.9], ["2016-01-17", 0.9], ["2016-01-17", 0.9], ["2016-01-17", 0.9], ["2016-01-17", 0.9], ["2016-01-17", 0.9], ["2016-01-17", 0.9], ["2016-01-17", 0.9], ["2016-01-17", 0.9], ["2016-01-17", 0.9], ["2016-01-17", 0.9]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/29 | True |
2016-03-31 | Will India win the 2016 ICC World Twenty20 cricket tournament? | binary | <img height="1" width="1" style="display:none" src="https://www.facebook.com/tr?id=570990896342688&ev=PageView&noscript=1"/>India will host the ICC World Twenty20 tournament for the first time from 11 March to 3 April 2016 (<a href = "http://www.theworldin.com/article/10487" target = "_blank">The World in 2016</a>, <a href = "http://www.icc-cricket.com/news/2015/media-releases/89915/india-and-south-africa-gear-up-for-icc-world-twenty20-2016" target = "_blank">International Cricket Council 1</a>, <a href = "http://www.icc-cricket.com/team-rankings/t20i" target = "_blank">International Cricket Council 2</a>).
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<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/133-will-google-s-alphago-beat-world-champion-lee-sedol-in-the-five-game-go-match-planned-for-march-2016" target = "_blank">Will Google's AlphaGo beat world champion Lee Sedol in the five-game Go match planned for March 2016?</a> | 2016-04-01 | gjopen | ["http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/cricket/77693599/pakistan-reject-venue-of-twenty20-world-cup-match-against-india", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/14/gitrep-13mar16pm/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/17/gitrep-16mar16pm/", "http://www.espncricinfo.com/magazine/content/story/978185.html", "http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/sports/2016-asia-cup/top-stories/India-have-99-per-cent-chance-of-winning-World-T20-Sehwag/articleshow/51289783.cms", "http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/266211/icc-promises-vigilance-over-illegal-betting", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/11/gitrep-10mar16pm/", "http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/t20-world-cup/twenty20-world-cup/winner", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/08/gitrep-7mar16pm/", "http://sports.yahoo.com/news/dhoni-lauds-india-crickets-turnaround-kings-051711707--spt.html;_ylt=AwrXgiI3wfJWkTIALoVNbK5_;_ylu=X3oDMTEyOWExdDM5BGNvbG8DZ3ExBHBvcwM0BHZ0aWQDQjAzMDNfMQRzZWMDc2M-", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/05/manual-category-assignment-work-in-progress/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/25/gitrep-24mar16pm/", "http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/t20-world-cup", "http://www.ibnlive.com/cricketnext/news/world-t20-margin-of-new-zealand-defeat-must-worry-india-1216688.html", "http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Addictions/can-india-still-win-the-t20-world-cup/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/19/gitrep-18mar16pm/", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/35624973", "https://books.google.com.co/books?id=HZc4AAAAQBAJ&pg=PT18&lpg=PT18", "http://www.oddsportal.com/cricket/world/icc-world-twenty20/outrights/", "http://sports.ndtv.com/icc-world-twenty20-2016/news/256256-world-t20-kane-williamson-says-india-are-favorites-to-win-title-at-home", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/30/gitrep-29mar16pm/", "http://www.newsinsight.net/FixersAndcricket.aspx#page=page-1", "http://www.ibnlive.com/cricketnext/news/world-t20-icc-should-investigate-india-bangladesh-match-says-former-pakistan-spinner-tauseef-1221542.html", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/27/gitrep-27mar16pm/", "http://www.oddschecker.com.au/cricket/t20-world-cup"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2015-12-15 | 0.0 | [["2015-12-15", 0.42], ["2015-12-15", 0.25], ["2015-12-15", 0.24], ["2015-12-15", 0.31], ["2015-12-15", 0.28], ["2015-12-15", 0.31], ["2015-12-15", 0.315], ["2015-12-16", 0.295], ["2015-12-16", 0.31], ["2015-12-16", 0.29], ["2015-12-16", 0.265], ["2015-12-16", 0.265], ["2015-12-16", 0.25], ["2015-12-16", 0.25], 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["2015-12-22", 0.25], ["2015-12-22", 0.25], ["2015-12-22", 0.25], ["2015-12-22", 0.25], ["2015-12-22", 0.25], ["2015-12-23", 0.25], ["2015-12-23", 0.25], ["2015-12-23", 0.25], ["2015-12-23", 0.25], ["2015-12-23", 0.25], ["2015-12-24", 0.25], ["2015-12-24", 0.25], ["2015-12-24", 0.25], ["2015-12-25", 0.25], ["2015-12-26", 0.25], ["2015-12-26", 0.25], ["2015-12-27", 0.25], ["2015-12-27", 0.25], ["2015-12-27", 0.25], ["2015-12-28", 0.25], ["2015-12-28", 0.25], ["2015-12-29", 0.25], ["2015-12-29", 0.25], ["2015-12-29", 0.25], ["2015-12-30", 0.25], ["2015-12-30", 0.25], ["2015-12-30", 0.25], ["2015-12-31", 0.25], ["2015-12-31", 0.25], ["2016-01-01", 0.25], ["2016-01-01", 0.25], ["2016-01-01", 0.25], ["2016-01-02", 0.25], ["2016-01-02", 0.25], ["2016-01-02", 0.25], ["2016-01-02", 0.25], ["2016-01-03", 0.25], ["2016-01-03", 0.25], ["2016-01-03", 0.25], ["2016-01-03", 0.25], ["2016-01-04", 0.25], ["2016-01-04", 0.25], ["2016-01-04", 0.25], ["2016-01-04", 0.25], ["2016-01-04", 0.25], 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["2016-03-31", 0.3], ["2016-03-31", 0.3], ["2016-03-31", 0.3], ["2016-03-31", 0.3], ["2016-03-31", 0.3], ["2016-03-31", 0.3], ["2016-03-31", 0.3], ["2016-03-31", 0.3], ["2016-03-31", 0.3], ["2016-03-31", 0.29], ["2016-03-31", 0.28], ["2016-03-31", 0.28], ["2016-03-31", 0.26], ["2016-03-31", 0.26], ["2016-03-31", 0.26]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/100 | True |
2018-05-14 | In Murphy v. NCAA, will the Supreme Court rule that Congress cannot prohibit New Jersey from amending or repealing its existing prohibitions on sports gambling? | binary | <b>By a count of 7-2, the question closed with "Yes" with an end date of 14 May.
(<a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/17pdf/16-476_dbfi.pdf" target="_blank">SCOTUS</a>)</b>
In 2016, the US Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit ruled that the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) prohibited the state of New Jersey from repealing certain laws regarding sports gambling (<a href = "http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/ct-new-jersey-sports-betting-20160809-story.html"target="_blank">The Chicago Tribune</a>). New Jersey appealed that decision to the Supreme Court, arguing that Congress does not have the authority to prohibit amendment or repeal of those laws (<a href = "http://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/christie-v-national-collegiate-athletic-association-2/"target="-blank">SCOTUSBlog</a>, <a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/courts_law/will-supreme-court-open-a-dam-burst-of-legalized-sports-betting/2017/11/26/9f988aaa-cf9d-11e7-a1a3-0d1e45a6de3d_story.html"target="_blank">The Washington Post</a>). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its current term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as no.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
| 2018-05-14 | gjopen | ["https://ballotpedia.org/Christie_v._NCAA?utm_source=Iterable&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=DailyBrew", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2017/12/04/place-your-bets-on-federalism-thoughts-on-todays-oral-argument-in-christie-v-ncaa/?utm_term=.035c90652675", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambling_in_New_Jersey", "http://www.gibsondunn.com/lawyers/tolson", "https://sports.vice.com/en_us/article/nevnew/handicapping-the-supreme-court-votes-on-sports-betting-case", "https://www.legalsportsreport.com/16770/chrstie-vs-ncaa-sports-betting/", "https://www.oyez.org/cases/1987/94_orig", "https://www.oyez.org/cases/1991/91-543", "https://theconversation.com/is-the-legalization-of-sports-betting-in-the-us-inevitable-50280", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/665505"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-12-08 | 1.0 | [["2017-12-08", 0.4], ["2017-12-08", 0.55], ["2017-12-08", 0.775], ["2017-12-08", 0.925], ["2017-12-08", 0.775], 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2017-10-01 | Will Canada legalise recreational marijuana nationally before 1 October 2017? | binary | Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has promised to legalise recreational marijuana (<a href="http://www.theworldin.com/article/12607/canada-high" target="_blank">The World in 2017</a>, <a href="http://www.vox.com/2015/10/20/9573497/canada-marijuana-legalization-justin-trudeau" target="_blank">Vox</a>). The health minister has indicated that a bill will be introduced in the spring of 2017. For more information on Canada's legislative process see <a href="http://guides.library.queensu.ca/gov/canada/federal/how-a-bill-becomes-a-law" target="_blank">Queen's University Library</a>.
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Canada has not legalized recreational marijuana. This question closed as "No," with and end date 1 October 2017.
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<hr> | 2017-10-04 | gjopen | ["http://www.ourcommons.ca/Committees/en/HESA/StudyActivity?studyActivityId=9603581", "https://www.hilltimes.com/2017/09/25/house-legislation-access-information-bill-chamber-islamophobia-hearings-continue-committee/119827", "http://www.parl.ca/LegisInfo/BillDetails.aspx?Bill=C45&Language=E&Mode=1&Parl=42&Ses=1", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/24/opinion/canada-legalize-marijuana.html", "https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2017/05/28/canadians-worried-ottawa-rushing-into-pot-legalization-poll.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/526151", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/04/13/canada-announces-plans-to-legalize-marijuana-by-july-2018/?utm_term=.b9c1e920aef1", "https://www.ourcommons.ca/Committees/en/HESA/StudyActivity?studyActivityId=9603581", "http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2017-08/31/content_31386154.htm", "https://www.ourcommons.ca/en/sitting-calendar", "http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/marijuana-legalization-poll-1.4076536", "http://www.ourcommons.ca/Committees/en/HESA/StudyActivity?studyActivityId=8967213", "http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/premiers-marijuana-legislation-1.4209113", "http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/cannabis-survey-1.4280982", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senate_of_Canada#cite_note-senfocus-2", "https://openparliament.ca/debates/2017/5/30/kate-young-1/?page=17", "http://host.madison.com/business/investment/markets-and-stocks/uh-oh-canada-s-recreational-marijuana-bill-could-be-in/article_4fab242e-0f09-59b2-b8d6-53e37254202c.html", "http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/parliament-is-back-in-session-soon-a-legislative-primer-1.3578028", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/24/opinion/canada-legalize-marijuana.html?mcubz=3", "https://lop.parl.ca/About/Parliament/GuideToHoC/making-e.htm", "http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/house-health-committee-to-reconvene-early-to-study-pot-bill-1.3558731", "http://www.ourcommons.ca/Committees/en/HESA/Meetings", "http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/premiers-courts-cannabis-1.4210895", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/police-ask-canada-government-to-postpone-legal-marijuana/2017/09/12/3f46af38-97fd-11e7-af6a-6555caaeb8dc_story.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/401551"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-11-22 | 0.0 | [["2016-11-22", 0.82], ["2016-11-22", 0.75], ["2016-11-22", 0.675], ["2016-11-22", 0.725], ["2016-11-22", 0.55], ["2016-11-23", 0.5], ["2016-11-23", 0.5], ["2016-11-23", 0.65], ["2016-11-23", 0.66], ["2016-11-23", 0.67], ["2016-11-23", 0.75], ["2016-11-23", 0.75], ["2016-11-24", 0.75], ["2016-11-24", 0.75], ["2016-11-24", 0.75], ["2016-11-25", 0.65], ["2016-11-26", 0.6], ["2016-11-26", 0.6], ["2016-11-26", 0.585], ["2016-11-26", 0.575], ["2016-11-27", 0.6], ["2016-11-27", 0.625], ["2016-11-27", 0.6], ["2016-11-27", 0.6], ["2016-11-27", 0.6], ["2016-11-28", 0.65], ["2016-11-28", 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2016-04-12 | Will Iran host a head of state or head of government from one of the G7 countries on an official visit before 1 July 2016? | binary | The G7 countries include Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
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"http://en.mehrnews.com/news/115649/Italy-PM-Matteo-Renzi-s-schedule-in-Tehran-announced", "http://www.repubblica.it/politica/2016/04/12/news/iran_renzi_a_teheran_il_premier_incontra_rohani-137428977/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-europe-eu-idUSKCN0WB1HV", "https://neurope.eu/article/renzi-will-first-major-western-leader-visit-iran/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-missiles-khamenei-idUSKCN0WW0PT", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/01/gitrep-31mar16pm/", "http://www.israelnationalnews.com/Articles/Article.aspx/18511#.Vv5un8ekyuU", "http://www.tehrantimes.com/news/300224/Italy-PM-to-visit-Iran-next-week", "http://www.governo.it/agenda/2016-04-12t000000-2016-04-13t000000/visita-di-renzi-iran/4424", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/196458", "http://theiranproject.com/blog/2016/03/23/irans-run-off-parliamentary-elections-set-april-29/", "http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0X00ST", "http://www.thelocal.it/20160404/italy-pm-matteo-renzi-to-visit-iran", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/07/gitrep-06apr16pm/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-politics-iran-idUSKCN0X119T", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-iran-arms-idUSKCN0X80MM", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-29/iran-s-rouhani-suddenly-cancels-trip-to-vienna-citing-security", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/199592"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2015-09-07 | 1.0 | [["2015-09-08", 0.5], ["2015-09-09", 0.3], ["2015-09-09", 0.3], ["2015-09-09", 0.3], ["2015-09-10", 0.375], ["2015-09-10", 0.54], ["2015-09-10", 0.6], ["2015-09-10", 0.65], ["2015-09-10", 0.65], ["2015-09-11", 0.65], ["2015-09-11", 0.635], ["2015-09-11", 0.62], ["2015-09-11", 0.635], ["2015-09-11", 0.6], ["2015-09-12", 0.6], ["2015-09-12", 0.59], ["2015-09-12", 0.55], ["2015-09-13", 0.55], ["2015-09-13", 0.55], ["2015-09-14", 0.55], ["2015-09-14", 0.55], ["2015-09-15", 0.53], 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["2016-03-29", 0.7], ["2016-03-29", 0.7], ["2016-03-29", 0.72], ["2016-03-29", 0.735], ["2016-03-30", 0.725], ["2016-03-30", 0.71], ["2016-03-31", 0.71], ["2016-04-01", 0.725], ["2016-04-01", 0.725], ["2016-04-02", 0.71], ["2016-04-03", 0.7], ["2016-04-03", 0.72], ["2016-04-03", 0.72], ["2016-04-04", 0.71], ["2016-04-04", 0.735], ["2016-04-04", 0.75], ["2016-04-04", 0.75], ["2016-04-04", 0.75], ["2016-04-04", 0.75], ["2016-04-04", 0.75], ["2016-04-04", 0.75], ["2016-04-05", 0.75], ["2016-04-05", 0.75], ["2016-04-05", 0.75], ["2016-04-05", 0.775], ["2016-04-06", 0.8], ["2016-04-06", 0.75], ["2016-04-06", 0.8], ["2016-04-07", 0.8], ["2016-04-08", 0.8], ["2016-04-09", 0.81], ["2016-04-09", 0.8], ["2016-04-11", 0.8], ["2016-04-11", 0.825], ["2016-04-11", 0.85], ["2016-04-12", 0.85], ["2016-04-12", 0.85]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/19 | True |
2020-01-01 | Before 1 January 2020, will a NATO member formally invoke Article 4 or Article 5 of the Washington Treaty in response to actions taken by Russia? | binary | Article 4 has been invoked a few times in the history of NATO (<a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49187.htm, http://www.ibtimes.com/what-natos-article-4-why-turkey-called-consultations-under-rarely-used-provision-2026060" target="_blank">NATO</a>, <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/explainer-nato-articles-4-and-5/24626653.html" target="_blank">Radio Free Europe</a>). Article 5 has been invoked just once (<a href="http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm" target="_blank">NATO</a>, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2001/09/13/us/after-attacks-alliance-for-first-time-nato-invokes-joint-defense-pact-with-us.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>). If Article 4 or Article 5 is invoked for an event in which the perpetrator is initially unknown and NATO subsequently attributes that event to Russia, the question will close retroactively with the end date of the invocation.
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| 2020-01-03 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2018-04-11 | 0.0 | [["2018-04-11", 0.45], ["2018-04-11", 0.425], ["2018-04-12", 0.4], ["2018-04-12", 0.29], ["2018-04-12", 0.29], ["2018-04-12", 0.4], ["2018-04-13", 0.4], ["2018-04-13", 0.45], ["2018-04-14", 0.475], ["2018-04-14", 0.125], ["2018-04-14", 0.1], ["2018-04-14", 0.1], ["2018-04-14", 0.1], ["2018-04-14", 0.075], ["2018-04-14", 0.05], ["2018-04-15", 0.1], ["2018-04-15", 0.12], ["2018-04-15", 0.1], ["2018-04-16", 0.1], ["2018-04-16", 0.1], ["2018-04-16", 0.1], ["2018-04-17", 0.1], ["2018-04-17", 0.1], ["2018-04-17", 0.1], ["2018-04-18", 0.1], ["2018-04-18", 0.1], ["2018-04-19", 0.1], ["2018-04-20", 0.1], ["2018-04-21", 0.1], ["2018-04-22", 0.1], ["2018-04-24", 0.1], ["2018-04-25", 0.07], ["2018-04-26", 0.07], ["2018-04-26", 0.07], ["2018-04-29", 0.085], ["2018-04-30", 0.1], ["2018-05-01", 0.1], ["2018-05-04", 0.1], ["2018-05-06", 0.1], ["2018-05-09", 0.09], ["2018-05-12", 0.1], ["2018-05-13", 0.08], 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["2019-04-23", 0.035], ["2019-04-24", 0.03], ["2019-04-27", 0.035], ["2019-04-29", 0.03], ["2019-04-30", 0.035], ["2019-05-02", 0.035], ["2019-05-03", 0.04], ["2019-05-04", 0.04], ["2019-05-05", 0.035], ["2019-05-06", 0.04], ["2019-05-07", 0.04], ["2019-05-09", 0.04], ["2019-05-11", 0.04], ["2019-05-12", 0.04], ["2019-05-14", 0.03], ["2019-05-17", 0.035], ["2019-05-17", 0.03], ["2019-05-17", 0.03], ["2019-05-19", 0.03], ["2019-05-21", 0.03], ["2019-05-22", 0.03], ["2019-05-23", 0.03], ["2019-05-24", 0.03], ["2019-05-25", 0.03], ["2019-05-26", 0.03], ["2019-05-28", 0.03], ["2019-05-29", 0.03], ["2019-05-30", 0.03], ["2019-06-04", 0.03], ["2019-06-06", 0.03], ["2019-06-07", 0.03], ["2019-06-09", 0.03], ["2019-06-10", 0.03], ["2019-06-13", 0.03], ["2019-06-14", 0.03], ["2019-06-16", 0.03], ["2019-06-25", 0.03], ["2019-06-26", 0.03], ["2019-06-26", 0.03], ["2019-06-27", 0.03], ["2019-06-28", 0.03], ["2019-06-28", 0.03], ["2019-07-02", 0.03], ["2019-07-05", 0.03], ["2019-07-07", 0.03], ["2019-07-10", 0.025], ["2019-07-12", 0.02], ["2019-07-15", 0.025], ["2019-07-15", 0.025], ["2019-07-17", 0.025], ["2019-07-20", 0.02], ["2019-07-21", 0.02], ["2019-07-26", 0.02], ["2019-08-01", 0.02], ["2019-08-03", 0.02], ["2019-08-05", 0.02], ["2019-08-09", 0.02], ["2019-08-11", 0.02], ["2019-08-15", 0.02], ["2019-08-21", 0.02], ["2019-08-23", 0.02], ["2019-08-23", 0.02], ["2019-08-26", 0.02], ["2019-08-28", 0.02], ["2019-09-01", 0.02], ["2019-09-07", 0.02], ["2019-09-10", 0.02], ["2019-09-11", 0.02], ["2019-09-12", 0.02], ["2019-09-13", 0.02], ["2019-09-14", 0.02], ["2019-09-19", 0.02], ["2019-09-22", 0.02], ["2019-09-26", 0.015], ["2019-09-27", 0.01], ["2019-10-02", 0.01], ["2019-10-04", 0.01], ["2019-10-08", 0.01], ["2019-10-11", 0.01], ["2019-10-11", 0.01], ["2019-10-15", 0.01], ["2019-10-17", 0.01], ["2019-10-21", 0.01], ["2019-10-22", 0.01], ["2019-10-24", 0.01], ["2019-10-27", 0.01], ["2019-10-28", 0.01], ["2019-10-31", 0.01], ["2019-11-02", 0.01], ["2019-11-05", 0.01], ["2019-11-06", 0.01], ["2019-11-11", 0.01], ["2019-11-13", 0.01], ["2019-11-15", 0.01], ["2019-11-18", 0.01], ["2019-11-20", 0.01], ["2019-11-22", 0.01], ["2019-11-27", 0.01], ["2019-11-29", 0.01], ["2019-12-02", 0.01], ["2019-12-04", 0.005], ["2019-12-05", 0.005], ["2019-12-08", 0.0], ["2019-12-09", 0.0], ["2019-12-11", 0.0], ["2019-12-14", 0.0], ["2019-12-15", 0.0], ["2019-12-16", 0.0], ["2019-12-18", 0.0], ["2019-12-18", 0.0], ["2019-12-20", 0.0], ["2019-12-21", 0.0], ["2019-12-23", 0.0], ["2019-12-24", 0.0], ["2019-12-26", 0.0], ["2019-12-27", 0.0], ["2019-12-29", 0.0], ["2019-12-29", 0.0], ["2019-12-30", 0.0], ["2019-12-30", 0.0], ["2019-12-31", 0.0], ["2020-01-01", 0.0], ["2020-01-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/931 | True |
2017-04-29 | Between 17 March 2017 and 30 April 2017, will a U.S. Cabinet-level nomination fail or will a Cabinet-level member of the administration cease to hold their office? | binary | For more information on the Cabinet-level positions in the Trump Administration see: <a href = "https://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/cabinet"target="_blank">The White House</a>. Failed nominations include nominations that are withdrawn, returned to the President by the Senate, and those which are voted down by the Senate. Since taking office, 19 of President Trump's cabinet nominees have been confirmed by the Senate, one nomination has been withdrawn, and three remain vacant (<a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/trump-administration-appointee-tracker/"target = "_blank">Washington Post</a>).
Recommended Questions:
<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/384-what-will-gallup-report-president-trump-s-net-approval-rating-to-be-on-28-april-2017"target="_blank">What will Gallup report President Trump's net approval rating to be on 28 April 2017?</a>
<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/405-will-a-border-adjustment-tax-be-passed-by-the-u-s-senate-or-house-of-representatives-before-30-april-2017"target="_blank">Will a border adjustment tax be passed by the U.S. Senate or House of Representatives before 30 April 2017?</a>
This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 29 April 2017.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | 2017-05-02 | gjopen | ["https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/07/us/politics/syria-strike-trump-timeline.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/07/world/middleeast/tillerson-mcmaster-syria-attack.html?_r=0", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/defense-secretary-mattis-withdraws-patterson-as-choice-for-undersecretary-for-policy/2017/03/14/dd5ec8bc-08b6-11e7-93dc-00f9bdd74ed1_story.html?utm_term=.92472e81424e", "http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/327945-report-priebuss-job-safe-but-bannon-in-danger", "http://www.marketwatch.com/story/trumps-ex-campaign-chairman-manafort-worked-to-advance-putins-interests-labor-nominee-acosta-cut-deal-with-billionaire-2017-03-22", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/480639", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-navy-korea-idUSKBN17A0V5", "http://www.thefreedictionary.com/syphilitic", "http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/mattis-defense-hill-republicans-obama-236329"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 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["2017-04-28", 0.0], ["2017-04-29", 0.0], ["2017-04-29", 0.0], ["2017-04-29", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/440 | True |
2017-10-01 | Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Pakistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Pakistan?
| binary | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2017 and will be resolved in July 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Pakistan from July 2017 through June 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this.
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<hr>
This question closed as 'No', with resolutions further detailed in this <a href = "https://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2018/08/01/early-warning-project-question-resolutions-july-1-2017-june-30-2018/"target="_blank">GJ Open blog post written by EWP</a>.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| 2019-12-09 | gjopen | ["http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/pakistan/database/casualties.htm"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-06-30 | 0.0 | [["2017-06-30", 0.01], ["2017-06-30", 0.05], ["2017-07-01", 0.025], ["2017-07-01", 0.0], ["2017-07-01", 0.005], ["2017-07-01", 0.0], ["2017-07-01", 0.01], ["2017-07-01", 0.0], ["2017-07-02", 0.01], ["2017-07-02", 0.01], ["2017-07-03", 0.03], ["2017-07-03", 0.03], ["2017-07-03", 0.03], ["2017-07-03", 0.01], ["2017-07-04", 0.01], ["2017-07-04", 0.005], ["2017-07-04", 0.01], ["2017-07-04", 0.01], ["2017-07-04", 0.01], ["2017-07-05", 0.015], ["2017-07-05", 0.035], ["2017-07-05", 0.035], ["2017-07-05", 0.035], ["2017-07-06", 0.035], ["2017-07-06", 0.035], ["2017-07-07", 0.035], ["2017-07-07", 0.035], ["2017-07-08", 0.035], ["2017-07-08", 0.035], ["2017-07-09", 0.02], ["2017-07-09", 0.05], ["2017-07-09", 0.05], ["2017-07-09", 0.05], ["2017-07-10", 0.05], ["2017-07-11", 0.065], ["2017-07-11", 0.03], ["2017-07-11", 0.03], 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2018-04-24 | In Jesner v. Arab Bank, PLC, will the Supreme Court rule that aliens can sue a corporation under the Alien Tort Statute? | binary | In 2015, U.S. Court of Appeals for the 2nd Circuit <a href = "http://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/jesner-v-arab-bank-plc"target="_blank">ruled</a> that the US <a href = "http://cja.org/what-we-do/litigation/legal-strategy/the-alien-tort-statute/"target="_blank">Alien Tort Statute (ATS)</a> did not permit lawsuits against corporations. In this <a href = "http://www.scotusblog.com/2017/10/argument-preview-corporate-liability-alien-tort-statute/"target="_blank">case</a>, Joseph Jesner and other plaintiffs filed suit against a Jordanian bank for its accused role in terrorist incidents outside of the United States. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its current term but if it does not, the question will resolve as no.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.supremecourt.gov/opinions/17pdf/16-499_1a7d.pdf"target="_blank">Supreme Court</a>, <a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/courts_law/supreme-court-says-corporations-cant-be-sued-under-centuries-old-law-for-overseas-human-rights-abuses/2018/04/24/bfa3b43e-2888-11e8-bc72-077aa4dab9ef_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.595b197f8f6b"target="_blank">Washington Post</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| 2018-04-27 | gjopen | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alien_Tort_Statute"", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/622983", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/617220", "http://www.scotusblog.com/2017/07/introduction-alien-tort-statute-corporate-liability-plain-english/", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/621332", "http://www.scotusblog.com/2017/10/argument-analysis-corporate-liability-violations-international-law-shaky-ground/", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/611540"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2017-11-03 | 0.0 | [["2017-11-03", 0.25], ["2017-11-03", 0.05], ["2017-11-03", 0.115], ["2017-11-03", 0.125], ["2017-11-03", 0.285], ["2017-11-03", 0.5], ["2017-11-03", 0.5], ["2017-11-03", 0.525], ["2017-11-03", 0.525], ["2017-11-03", 0.6], ["2017-11-03", 0.65], ["2017-11-03", 0.65], ["2017-11-03", 0.565], ["2017-11-03", 0.465], ["2017-11-03", 0.55], ["2017-11-03", 0.65], ["2017-11-04", 0.45], ["2017-11-04", 0.275], ["2017-11-04", 0.075], 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["2018-03-31", 0.15], ["2018-04-01", 0.15], ["2018-04-01", 0.15], ["2018-04-01", 0.15], ["2018-04-02", 0.15], ["2018-04-05", 0.15], ["2018-04-05", 0.15], ["2018-04-06", 0.15], ["2018-04-07", 0.15], ["2018-04-07", 0.15], ["2018-04-09", 0.15], ["2018-04-12", 0.15], ["2018-04-16", 0.15], ["2018-04-19", 0.15], ["2018-04-24", 0.15], ["2018-04-24", 0.15]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/679 | True |
2016-03-12 | Will Google's AlphaGo beat world champion Lee Sedol in the five-game Go match planned for March 2016? | binary | Google's AlphaGo computer program beat a professional Go player for the first time and is set to take on world champion Lee Sedol in a 5-game match in March 2016 (<a href = "http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/computer-beats-go-champion-for-first-time/" target = "_blank">Scientific American</a>, <a href = "http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3419548/March-machines-Computer-BEATS-one-world-s-best-players-ancient-board-game-using-human-like-skills.html" target = "_blank">Daily Mail</a>).
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"http://www.zdnet.com/article/alphago-is-the-official-winner-in-landmark-man-vs-machine-go-match/", "https://news.developer.nvidia.com/google-ai-algorithm-masters-ancient-game-of-go/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f_Ad0tHFqgY", "http://bigstory.ap.org/urn:publicid:ap.org:c33cfe0452e44ba4806a0e5dd5781933", "http://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21694540-win-or-lose-best-five-battle-contest-another-milestone", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lee_Sedol", "http://www.theverge.com/2016/3/10/11191184/lee-sedol-alphago-go-deepmind-google-match-2-result"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-02-02 | 1.0 | [["2016-02-02", 0.75], ["2016-02-02", 0.765], ["2016-02-02", 0.78], ["2016-02-02", 0.75], ["2016-02-02", 0.75], ["2016-02-02", 0.78], ["2016-02-02", 0.77], ["2016-02-03", 0.78], ["2016-02-03", 0.78], ["2016-02-03", 0.78], ["2016-02-03", 0.78], ["2016-02-03", 0.78], ["2016-02-03", 0.78], ["2016-02-03", 0.755], ["2016-02-03", 0.75], ["2016-02-03", 0.65], 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["2016-03-11", 0.95], ["2016-03-11", 0.95], ["2016-03-11", 0.95], ["2016-03-11", 0.96], ["2016-03-11", 0.96], ["2016-03-11", 0.96], ["2016-03-11", 0.96], ["2016-03-11", 0.96], ["2016-03-11", 0.96], ["2016-03-11", 0.97], ["2016-03-11", 0.97], ["2016-03-11", 0.97], ["2016-03-11", 0.97], ["2016-03-11", 0.97], ["2016-03-11", 0.97], ["2016-03-11", 0.97], ["2016-03-11", 0.97], ["2016-03-11", 0.98], ["2016-03-12", 0.98]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/133 | True |
2016-12-31 | Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Pakistan before 1 January 2017? | binary | For more information on what constitutes an episode of mass killing, see the <a href="http://www.earlywarningproject.com/definitions" target="_blank">Early Warning Project’s Definitions Page</a>. According to those criteria, Pakistan has an ongoing episode of mass killing perpetrated by the Lashkar-e-Jhangyi militant group (<a href="http://www.earlywarningproject.com/2015/01/12/trends-over-time-in-state-led-mass-killing-through-2014" target="_blank">EWP</a>). This question pertains to the risk of a new episode of mass killing. The Early Warning Project’s 2015 statistical risk assessments identified Pakistan as one of the 10 countries at greatest risk of an onset of a new episode of state-led mass killing (<a href="http://www.earlywarningproject.com/countries/pakistan" target="_blank">EWP</a>).Those forecasts do not assess the risk of mass killing by non-state groups, which would also produce a “yes” answer to this question. This question will be resolved by the Early Warning Project, in consultation with subject matter experts, using publicly available secondary sources. If the project determines that a new episode of mass killing has occurred, relevant evidence will be summarized in a post on <a href="http://www.earlywarningproject.com/posts" target="_blank">EWP's blog</a>.
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This question was closed as a "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. The EWP did not find evidence of a new mass killing episode in Pakistan before the end of 2016 (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/2017/03/29/state-of-the-world-mass-killing-in-2016"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | 2017-03-30 | gjopen | ["http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/316761", "http://indianexpress.com/article/world/world-news/pak-successfully-tackling-terror-economic-challenges-nawaz-sharif-3100521/", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/327109", "http://tribune.com.pk/story/1174675/twin-blasts-rock-mardan-district-court/", "http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/09/daily-chart-11?fsrc=scn%2Ftw%2Fte%2Fbl%2Fed%2Fpakistanisdrivingout15mafghanrefugees&%3Ffsrc%3Dscn%2F=tw%2Fdc", "http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/Pakistan/database/casualties.htm", "http://www.earlywarningproject.com/definitions", "http://www.earlywarningproject.com/risk_assessments", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/281886", "http://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/09/22/the-explosive-india-pakistan-situation/", "http://en.dailypakistan.com.pk/pakistan/hrcp-report-2015-violence-related-deaths-decreases-upto-40-in-pakistan/", "http://www.earlywarningproject.com/opinion_pools", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/275786", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/379789", "http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/pakistan/database/casualties.htm", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/244986", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/315982", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honour_killing_in_Pakistan", "http://www.samaa.tv/pakistan/2016/10/gunmen-storm-police-academy-college-in-quetta/", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-37387475", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/276761", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-pakistan-blast-idUSKCN10J0I7?il=0", "http://www.earlywarningproject.com/opinion_pools/104", "http://tribune.com.pk/story/1020621/think-tank-reports-2015-witnessed-significant-decline-in-violence/", "http://indianexpress.com/article/world/world-news/pakistan-mosque-bombing-death-toll-rises-to-36-3036277/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2016-05-25 | 0.0 | [["2016-05-25", 1.0], ["2016-05-25", 0.585], ["2016-05-25", 0.14], 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2018-04-06 | Will Alexei Navalny be imprisoned or placed under house arrest between 10 January 2018 and 8 April 2018?
| binary | Navalny has been incarcerated many times for reasons ranging from unauthorized protests to embezzlement (<a href = "http://www.dw.com/en/russian-jail-frees-vladimir-putin-opponent-alexei-navalny/a-41066328"target="_blank">Deutsche Welle</a>, <a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-03/putin-s-rival-can-t-run-for-president-but-he-s-still-a-threat"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>). Although the Central Election Committee of the Russian Federation has barred him from running in the upcoming presidential elections, Navalny has continued to express his political aspirations (<a href = "http://www.theworldin.com/edition/2018/article/14409/alexei-navalny-calls-out-putins-hypocrisy"target="_blank">The Economist</a>, <a href = "https://www.economist.com/news/europe/21730447-kremlin-says-he-cannot-run-president-he-running-anyway-alexei-navalny-tells"target="_blank">The Economist</a>).
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<hr>
Alexei Navalny was not imprisoned or placed under house arrest. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 9 April 2018.
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<hr>
| 2018-04-09 | gjopen | ["https://twitter.com/leonidvolkov/status/966611666178924544", "https://twitter.com/Zhivoderova/status/966280328087310337", "https://www.ft.com/content/382adee4-0405-11e8-9650-9c0ad2d7c5b5", "http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21736541-unintended-puff-mr-putin-understanding-reality-tv-star-ksenia-sobchaks-presidential?frsc=dg%7Ce", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/697359", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/698020", "https://twitter.com/navalny", "https://twitter.com/navalny/status/966291236620562434", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-43034642", "https://www.instagram.com/p/BfdPC31nogE", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43034642", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nt9N-DV1Ccs", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-election-navalny/kremlin-critic-navalny-held-then-released-ahead-of-russian-election-idUSKCN1G618K", "https://twitter.com/navalny/status/966619284658155520", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-election-navalny/putin-nemesis-navalny-barred-from-election-tries-political-siege-idUSKCN1G50RM?il=0", "https://www.cnn.com/2018/01/28/europe/russian-protests-navalny-office-intl/index.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/22/alexei-navalny-detained-moscow-russian-opposition-leader-faces-jail-election?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other", "http://www.unz.com/akarlin/navalnys-ten-percent/", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeozanian/2017/12/26/playing-pinballs-big-comeback/#be0dd0d41a55", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/697376", "https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/02/22/587858709/russian-police-briefly-detain-opposition-leader-alexei-navalny-again", "https://navalny.com/", "https://meduza.io/news/2018/02/27/sud-po-yanvarskoy-aktsii-navalnogo-naznachili-za-dve-nedeli-do-vyborov-emu-grozit-30-sutok-aresta", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/05/russia-police-accuse-navalny-of-assaulting-officer-during-protest", 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["2018-03-23", 0.45], ["2018-03-23", 0.45], ["2018-03-23", 0.425], ["2018-03-23", 0.4], ["2018-03-23", 0.4], ["2018-03-24", 0.38], ["2018-03-24", 0.38], ["2018-03-25", 0.38], ["2018-03-25", 0.355], ["2018-03-25", 0.355], ["2018-03-26", 0.34], ["2018-03-26", 0.28], ["2018-03-26", 0.25], ["2018-03-27", 0.305], ["2018-03-27", 0.25], ["2018-03-27", 0.265], ["2018-03-27", 0.25], ["2018-03-28", 0.245], ["2018-03-28", 0.22], ["2018-03-28", 0.24], ["2018-03-29", 0.21], ["2018-03-29", 0.2], ["2018-03-29", 0.2], ["2018-03-29", 0.2], ["2018-03-30", 0.2], ["2018-03-30", 0.2], ["2018-03-31", 0.2], ["2018-04-01", 0.2], ["2018-04-01", 0.185], ["2018-04-01", 0.185], ["2018-04-02", 0.185], ["2018-04-02", 0.15], ["2018-04-02", 0.15], ["2018-04-03", 0.15], ["2018-04-03", 0.15], ["2018-04-03", 0.15], ["2018-04-03", 0.15], ["2018-04-03", 0.15], ["2018-04-04", 0.15], ["2018-04-04", 0.15], ["2018-04-04", 0.145], ["2018-04-04", 0.13], ["2018-04-04", 0.13], ["2018-04-05", 0.105], ["2018-04-05", 0.105], ["2018-04-05", 0.1], ["2018-04-05", 0.1], ["2018-04-05", 0.1], ["2018-04-06", 0.1], ["2018-04-06", 0.1]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/844 | True |
2023-02-27 | On 27 February 2023, will the most recent blog post published by the Dupuy Institute covering the 'Russo-Ukrainian War' include an estimate of the strength of Russian ground forces in and around Ukraine plus those of the Donetsk PR and the Lugansk PR to be greater than 200,000? | binary |
As of 18 January 2023, the latest blog post published by the Dupuy Institute covering the 'Russo-Ukrainian War' included an estimate of strength of Russian ground forces, plus those of the Donetsk PR and the Lugansk PR, of 184,000 (see http://www.dupuyinstitute.org/blog/2023/01/16/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-327/). "The Russian army (ground forces) in and around Ukraine is probably around 150,000 (up to 190,000). Donetsk PR is estimated at 20,000 and Lugansk at 14,000." The blog will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET.<p></p><p><i><b>NOTE</b>: Questions in the Fujitsu Hivemind Challenge have been partly crowdsourced through a research project and consequently may have experimental framings.</i></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-03-01 | gjopen | ["http://www.dupuyinstitute.org/blog/2023/02/20/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-362/", "http://www.dupuyinstitute.org/blog/2023/02/24/one-year-anniversary-of-the-russo-ukrainian-war/", "https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/18/putin-could-be-ready-to-announce-a-second-mobilization-drive-analysts-say.html", "http://www.dupuyinstitute.org/blog/2023/01/30/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-341/", "https://wcnjik.wp.mil.pl/u/AAP6PL.pdf)For", "https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA480496.pdf", "http://www.dupuyinstitute.org/blog/", "https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3143381/russian-efforts-to-raise-numbers-of-troops-unlikely-to-succeed-us-official-says/", "https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-21-2023", "https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3841230-ukraine-warns-russia-massing-500000-troops-on-border-for-offensive/", "https://archive.org/details/explosions_201811", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/01/05/russia-military-mobilization-battlefield-ukraine-war/", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mobilization_in_Donetsk_and_Luhansk_People%27s_Republics"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2023-01-18 | 0.0 | [["2023-01-18", 1.0], ["2023-01-18", 0.7], ["2023-01-18", 0.7733], ["2023-01-18", 0.605], ["2023-01-18", 0.684], ["2023-01-19", 0.625], ["2023-01-19", 0.6233], ["2023-01-19", 0.6629], ["2023-01-19", 0.6163], ["2023-01-19", 0.6422], ["2023-01-19", 0.678], ["2023-01-19", 0.6164], ["2023-01-19", 0.565], ["2023-01-19", 0.5642], ["2023-01-19", 0.5625], ["2023-01-20", 0.5958], ["2023-01-21", 0.5933], ["2023-01-21", 0.6169], ["2023-01-22", 0.625], ["2023-01-23", 0.66], ["2023-01-23", 0.6], ["2023-01-23", 0.596], ["2023-01-23", 0.592], ["2023-01-23", 0.572], ["2023-01-23", 0.587], ["2023-01-23", 0.557], ["2023-01-23", 0.612], ["2023-01-23", 0.605], ["2023-01-24", 0.5773], ["2023-01-24", 0.5783], ["2023-01-24", 0.5592], ["2023-01-24", 0.5679], ["2023-01-24", 0.574], ["2023-01-24", 0.5475], ["2023-01-25", 0.538], ["2023-01-25", 0.5313], ["2023-01-25", 0.5044], ["2023-01-26", 0.5223], ["2023-01-27", 0.5067], ["2023-01-28", 0.5075], ["2023-01-28", 0.4867], ["2023-01-28", 0.4908], ["2023-01-29", 0.4883], ["2023-01-29", 0.455], ["2023-01-30", 0.4508], ["2023-01-30", 0.4925], ["2023-01-31", 0.5123], ["2023-01-31", 0.5154], ["2023-01-31", 0.55], ["2023-01-31", 0.5643], ["2023-01-31", 0.5764], ["2023-01-31", 0.5993], ["2023-01-31", 0.6193], ["2023-01-31", 0.6287], ["2023-01-31", 0.622], ["2023-02-01", 0.6438], ["2023-02-01", 0.635], ["2023-02-01", 0.685], ["2023-02-01", 0.6888], ["2023-02-01", 0.6947], ["2023-02-01", 0.7006], ["2023-02-01", 0.6705], ["2023-02-01", 0.6705], ["2023-02-02", 0.7128], ["2023-02-02", 0.7194], ["2023-02-02", 0.7053], ["2023-02-02", 0.7], ["2023-02-02", 0.6815], ["2023-02-02", 0.6635], ["2023-02-03", 0.674], ["2023-02-03", 0.693], ["2023-02-04", 0.6922], ["2023-02-04", 0.7033], ["2023-02-05", 0.7006], ["2023-02-05", 0.7061], ["2023-02-06", 0.7078], ["2023-02-06", 0.7217], ["2023-02-06", 0.7022], ["2023-02-07", 0.7022], ["2023-02-07", 0.6744], ["2023-02-07", 0.6733], ["2023-02-07", 0.6767], ["2023-02-07", 0.7133], ["2023-02-07", 0.7078], ["2023-02-08", 0.6794], ["2023-02-08", 0.6906], ["2023-02-09", 0.6672], ["2023-02-09", 0.6617], ["2023-02-10", 0.6428], ["2023-02-10", 0.6228], ["2023-02-10", 0.59], ["2023-02-11", 0.5742], ["2023-02-11", 0.5689], ["2023-02-12", 0.5668], ["2023-02-12", 0.5658], ["2023-02-12", 0.5663], ["2023-02-12", 0.5637], ["2023-02-12", 0.5637], ["2023-02-12", 0.5463], ["2023-02-12", 0.5068], ["2023-02-12", 0.5416], ["2023-02-13", 0.5416], ["2023-02-13", 0.5389], ["2023-02-14", 0.5358], ["2023-02-14", 0.5332], ["2023-02-14", 0.5305], ["2023-02-15", 0.5332], ["2023-02-15", 0.5268], ["2023-02-16", 0.5021], ["2023-02-16", 0.4895], ["2023-02-16", 0.4884], ["2023-02-17", 0.4858], ["2023-02-17", 0.4911], ["2023-02-18", 0.4821], ["2023-02-18", 0.4832], ["2023-02-19", 0.4763], ["2023-02-19", 0.4579], ["2023-02-19", 0.4521], ["2023-02-20", 0.4095], ["2023-02-20", 0.3963], ["2023-02-20", 0.4], ["2023-02-21", 0.3837], ["2023-02-21", 0.3779], ["2023-02-21", 0.3411], ["2023-02-21", 0.3216], ["2023-02-21", 0.3511], ["2023-02-21", 0.3616], ["2023-02-21", 0.3584], ["2023-02-22", 0.3558], ["2023-02-22", 0.3563], ["2023-02-22", 0.35], ["2023-02-22", 0.3474], ["2023-02-22", 0.331], ["2023-02-23", 0.33], ["2023-02-23", 0.332], ["2023-02-23", 0.327], ["2023-02-23", 0.325], ["2023-02-24", 0.3225], ["2023-02-24", 0.3105], ["2023-02-24", 0.307], ["2023-02-24", 0.306], ["2023-02-25", 0.304], ["2023-02-25", 0.3], ["2023-02-26", 0.295], ["2023-02-26", 0.294], ["2023-02-26", 0.2555], ["2023-02-26", 0.2515], ["2023-02-26", 0.241], ["2023-02-26", 0.24], ["2023-02-26", 0.24], ["2023-02-26", 0.2525], ["2023-02-26", 0.2025], ["2023-02-26", 0.2005], ["2023-02-26", 0.1765], ["2023-02-26", 0.172], ["2023-02-26", 0.2025], ["2023-02-26", 0.2125], ["2023-02-26", 0.1905], ["2023-02-26", 0.18], ["2023-02-27", 0.176], ["2023-02-27", 0.176]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2717 | True |
2023-11-21 | Will US federal criminal charges be filed against Changpeng Zhao for actions related to the operation of Binance and/or Binance.US before 30 December 2023? | binary |
<p>Zhao, the founder of Binance, is already facing civil complaints from the CFTC and SEC related to the operation of the cryptocurrency exchange, though no criminal charges have yet been filed (<a href="https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2022/12/doj-divided-over-charging-binance-for-alleged-crypto-crimes-report-says/" target="_blank">Ars Technica</a>, <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-justice-department-investigating-binance-for-violating-russian-sanctions-report" target="_blank">Coin Telegraph</a>, <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/kevin-oleary-binance-sec-charges" target="_blank">Coin Telegraph</a>, <a href="https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8680-23" target="_blank">CFTC</a>, <a href="https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2023-101" target="_blank">SEC</a>). Any criminal charge or indictment under seal would only count upon the unsealing of the charge or indictment during the question's open period (<a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/charge" target="_blank">Cornell</a>, see Definition (1), <a href="https://legalbeagle.com/6790439-sealed-indictment.html?ref=lz2020b" target="_blank">Legal Beagle</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-11-21 | gjopen | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binance", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-justice-dept-is-split-over-charging-binance-crypto-world-falters-sources-2022-12-12/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2023-06-23 | 1.0 | [["2023-06-23", 0.55], ["2023-06-23", 0.545], ["2023-06-24", 0.3967], ["2023-06-24", 0.335], ["2023-06-24", 0.276], ["2023-06-24", 0.2467], ["2023-06-24", 0.2629], ["2023-06-24", 0.2675], ["2023-06-24", 0.3222], ["2023-06-25", 0.3067], ["2023-06-25", 0.2956], ["2023-06-25", 0.286], ["2023-06-26", 0.26], ["2023-06-26", 0.255], ["2023-06-26", 0.2483], ["2023-06-28", 0.335], ["2023-06-28", 0.396], ["2023-07-01", 0.37], ["2023-07-02", 0.42], ["2023-07-02", 0.432], ["2023-07-03", 0.369], ["2023-07-03", 0.372], ["2023-07-04", 0.353], ["2023-07-13", 0.343], ["2023-07-13", 0.343], ["2023-07-15", 0.362], ["2023-07-15", 0.364], ["2023-07-17", 0.409], ["2023-07-22", 0.41], ["2023-07-29", 0.408], ["2023-08-01", 0.35], ["2023-08-02", 0.347], ["2023-08-02", 0.357], ["2023-08-05", 0.355], ["2023-08-09", 0.342], ["2023-08-10", 0.341], ["2023-08-17", 0.339], ["2023-08-21", 0.337], ["2023-08-31", 0.329], ["2023-09-01", 0.346], ["2023-09-04", 0.353], ["2023-09-04", 0.352], ["2023-09-06", 0.312], ["2023-09-07", 0.308], ["2023-09-13", 0.306], ["2023-09-28", 0.314], ["2023-09-30", 0.316], ["2023-10-01", 0.312], ["2023-10-08", 0.302], ["2023-10-12", 0.289], ["2023-10-16", 0.28], ["2023-10-17", 0.279], ["2023-10-22", 0.28], ["2023-11-01", 0.277], ["2023-11-01", 0.271], ["2023-11-03", 0.279], ["2023-11-04", 0.369], ["2023-11-04", 0.269], ["2023-11-05", 0.269], ["2023-11-11", 0.268], ["2023-11-17", 0.255], ["2023-11-17", 0.27], ["2023-11-17", 0.264], ["2023-11-18", 0.184], ["2023-11-18", 0.168], ["2023-11-18", 0.188], ["2023-11-21", 0.27], ["2023-11-21", 0.27]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2917 | True |
2021-03-01 | Before 1 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation at sea between the forces of India and the People's Republic of China? | binary |
<p>A violent clash in mid-June 2020 between soldiers along a disputed stretch of border between India and China left at least 20 dead, sparking concerns over continued escalation of tensions between the two neighbors (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53061476" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/why-chinese-and-indian-troops-are-clashing-again/2020/09/02/0c1f5f90-ed01-11ea-bd08-1b10132b458f_story.html" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>, <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/world/china-india-shots-fired-border-dispute" target="_blank">Fox News</a>, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/india-seeks-naval-edge-as-china-penetrates-indian-ocean-11600945203" target="_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one or more fatalities of the forces-the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement officials-of either side. For the purposes of this question, "at sea" means any territorial or international waters and the airspace above them.</p><p></p><p></p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 29 September 2020</span>: Pangong Tso/Pangong Lake would not be considered to be "at sea.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>
| 2021-03-01 | gjopen | ["https://bit.ly/2VUCIz6", "https://reut.rs/36WG6zN", "https://reut.rs/2KbhTx8", "https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/naku-la-clash-china-trying-to-open-new-front-test-india-s-defence-say-experts-101611571454105.html", "https://reut.rs/3oHv8UY", "https://tmsnrt.rs/3cL0qHG", "https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3112651/china-india-border-row-prepare-long-haul-talks-indian-foreign", "https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/india/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_aircraft_carrier_programme#Liaoning_(Type_001", "https://bit.ly/2IgZRbD", "https://new.finalcall.com/2021/02/16/india-china-begin-troop-withdrawal-from-contested-border/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2020-09-25 | 0.0 | [["2020-09-25", 0.0], ["2020-09-25", 0.11], ["2020-09-25", 0.1], ["2020-09-25", 0.05], ["2020-09-25", 0.0], ["2020-09-25", 0.0], ["2020-09-25", 0.0], ["2020-09-25", 0.025], ["2020-09-25", 0.0], ["2020-09-25", 0.0], ["2020-09-25", 0.0], 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2020-03-03 | Will Bernie Sanders win a majority of Democratic pledged delegates on Super Tuesday? | binary | <p>Fourteen states, one U.S. territory, and "Democrats Abroad" are scheduled to hold their Democratic primaries & caucuses on 3 March 2020, known as "Super Tuesday" (<a href="https://www.270towin.com/2020-election-calendar/" target="_blank">270 To Win</a>). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the majority of pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2020-03-16 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2020-02-07 | 0.0 | [["2020-02-07", 0.325], ["2020-02-07", 0.5], ["2020-02-07", 0.55], ["2020-02-07", 0.45], ["2020-02-07", 0.45], ["2020-02-07", 0.445], ["2020-02-08", 0.42], ["2020-02-08", 0.39], ["2020-02-08", 0.19], ["2020-02-08", 0.075], ["2020-02-08", 0.15], ["2020-02-08", 0.1], ["2020-02-08", 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["2020-03-02", 0.35], ["2020-03-02", 0.35], ["2020-03-02", 0.35], ["2020-03-02", 0.35], ["2020-03-02", 0.35], ["2020-03-02", 0.35], ["2020-03-02", 0.35], ["2020-03-02", 0.35], ["2020-03-02", 0.35], ["2020-03-02", 0.35], ["2020-03-02", 0.345], ["2020-03-02", 0.335], ["2020-03-02", 0.335], ["2020-03-03", 0.33], ["2020-03-03", 0.33], ["2020-03-03", 0.33], ["2020-03-03", 0.33], ["2020-03-03", 0.33]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1517 | True |
2021-07-22 | Before 22 July 2021, will Hamas or the Israeli government accuse the other of violating the Gaza ceasefire agreed to on 20 May 2021? | binary |
<p>After 11 days of fighting in and around Gaza, Hamas and Israel agreed to a ceasefire (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-conflicts-are-already-shaping-an-already-volatile-middle-east" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-57195537" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/palestinians-clash-israeli-police-jerusalem-after-gaza-cease-fire-takes-n1268119" target="_blank">NBC News</a>). For the purposes of this question, "Israeli government" means the prime minister or other cabinet-level ministers.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-07-22 | gjopen | ["https://apnews.com/article/west-bank-middle-east-israel-592b2c05bcb37c3af20ca14f2ff1ad6b", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/9/israel-forces-open-fire-on-palestinians-hundreds-wounded", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/9/israel-says-it-is-targeting-hamas-cryptocurrency-accounts", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-july-13-2021/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/hamas-radio-reports-israeli-air-strike-gaza-2021-06-15/", "https://www.jpost.com/arab-israeli-conflict/hamas-israel-playing-with-fire-with-tisha-beav-events-in-jerusalem-674096", "https://www.dailysabah.com/world/mid-east/israeli-soldiers-demand-halt-to-settler-violence-against-palestinians", "https://www.jpost.com/arab-israeli-conflict/israel-eases-gaza-restrictions-as-qatar-official-enters-enclave-673604", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/4/israeli-air-raids-target-besieged-gaza-strip-over-fire-balloons", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-57492745", "https://globalnews.ca/news/7954766/israel-hamas-airstrike-militant-sites-gaza/", "https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/palestinians-slam-opening-of-uae-embassy-in-israel-673843", "https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/world/syria-based-breakaway-palestinian-faction-elects-new-leader/", "https://apnews.com/article/middle-east-israel-arrests-philanthropy-west-bank-c09a40721df449148dff63ce12099118", "https://digitaltimescolonist.pressreader.com/times-colonist/20210706/281633898228341", "https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/syria/syrian-air-defenses-intercept-israeli-attack-over-aleppo-1.10014079", "https://imemc.org/article/israeli-colonists-attack-and-injure-several-palestinians-in-hebron/", "https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/hamas-israel-is-falsifying-jerusalem-history-673815", "https://www.israelhayom.com/2021/07/05/gantz-war-with-hamas-can-resume-at-any-time/", "https://www.clevelandjewishnews.com/jns/is-hamas-now-firing-rockets-from-lebanon/article_6e9700d9-b8b5-5446-a503-bcdbf370146d.html", "https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210702-israeli-settlers-leave-west-bank-outpost-after-govt-deal", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/18/israeli-forces-storm-al-aqsa-compound-on-eve-of-hajj-pilgrimage", "https://apnews.com/article/middle-east-business-israel-8faf474b977b91c53be0a8242be422b4", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/2/israeli-air-raids-target-gaza-for-third-time-since-may-truce", "https://www.newsweek.com/israel-threatens-lebanon-over-rocket-attacks-syria-warns-israel-against-airstrikes-1611665"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2021-05-21 | 0.0 | [["2021-05-21", 0.975], ["2021-05-21", 0.99], ["2021-05-21", 0.985], ["2021-05-21", 0.98], ["2021-05-21", 0.98], ["2021-05-21", 0.98], ["2021-05-21", 0.98], ["2021-05-21", 0.98], ["2021-05-21", 0.98], ["2021-05-22", 0.99], ["2021-05-22", 0.99], ["2021-05-22", 0.99], 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2020-04-02 | Will the United States experience at least one quarter of negative real GDP growth in 2020? | binary |
<p>The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis releases three estimates for each quarter: advance, second, and third, and the release dates for 2020 can be found here: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule. This question will be resolved based on the third estimates for Q1, Q2, and Q3, typically released 3 months after the end of each quarter, and the advance estimate for Q4, expected in mid-January 2021. The third estimate for Q3 2019 indicated that real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent (<a href="https://www.bea.gov/news/2019/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-2019-third-estimate-corporate-profits-third-quarter" target="_blank">BEA 2019</a>). The last time the quarter-on-quarter U.S. GDP growth rate was negative was Q1 2014 (<a href="https://www.bea.gov/news/2014/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2014-third-estimate-corporate-profits-1st-quarter-2014" target="_blank">BEA 2014</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>
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2023-04-01 | Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of a country in the Horn of Africa before 1 April 2023? | binary |
<p>Drought, conflict, and other factors have left millions in the Horn of Africa facing potential famine (<a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/millions-lives-risk-famine-stalks-horn-africa/story?id=84643535" target="_blank">ABC News</a>, <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/ethiopia/forgotten-crisis-famine-horn-africa" target="_blank">Reliefweb</a>, <a href="https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/ipc-mapping-tool/" target="_blank">Integrated Food Security Phase Classification - Mapping Tool</a>). For the purposes of this question, the countries in the Horn of Africa are Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda (<a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Horn-of-Africa" target="_blank">Britannica</a>). For general information on how famines are declared, see: <a href="http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean" target="_blank">NPR</a>. The reporting of famine conditions without a UN famine declaration would not count.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-04-01 | gjopen | ["https://sahanjournal.com/news-partners/somalia-drought-deaths-report-hunger-crisis-children/", "https://www.thestar.com.my/news/world/2023/03/10/aid-agencies-call-on-donors-to-urgently-fund-somalia039s-drought-crisis", "https://www.unicefusa.org/what-unicef-does/where-unicef-works/africa/horn-africa?gclid=Cj0KCQiAjbagBhD3ARIsANRrqEuve4a4v05v9iuY9F8SWaqwrM4YgN9aJOPfphXRxvd-kvWz69H-MvwaAjDWEALw_wcB", "https://news.un.org/en/audio/2023/03/1134017", "https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/world-food-program-chief-somali-famine-slowed-avoided-96482262", "https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/parliament-passes-anti-terror-law-amid-war-on-al-shabaab/ar-AA18n54m", "https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/kenyan-security-forces-kill-10-suspected-al-shabaab-fighters-2023-01-19/", "https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/situation-report--greater-horn-of-africa-food-insecurity-and-health---grade-3-emergency---15-november-2022---31-december-2022", "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/horn-of-africa-drought-trends-looking-worse-than-2011-famine", "https://www.npr.org/2022/09/05/1121105281/somalia-famine-this-year-the-u-n", "https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/another-poor-rainy-season-forecast-drought-hit-horn-of-africa", "https://www.ipcinfo.org/", "https://fews.net/east-africa/somalia/alert/february-28-2023", "https://fews.net/", "https://www.icpac.net/climate-forecasting/", "https://news.un.org/en/story/2011/07/382342", "https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/22/politics/us-kills-al-shabaab-fighters-somalia/index.html", "https://www.thetablet.co.uk/blogs/1/2376/famine-in-east-africa-this-a-humanitarian-crisis-that-could-have-been-avoided", "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/somalia-drought-deaths-report-43000-half-children-climate-change-war-shabaab/", "https://reliefweb.int/report/ethiopia/horn-africa-drought-situation-report-7-1-february-1-march-2023", "https://www.unicefusa.org/what-unicef-does/where-unicef-works/africa/horn-africa?", "https://www.reuters.com/world/un-aid-chief-ask-25-more-aid-money-globally-2023-2022-11-30/", "https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/08/1124072", "https://disasterphilanthropy.org/disasters/horn-of-africa-hunger-crisis/#:~:text=More%20than%208.9%20million%20livestock,first%20half%20of%20the%20year"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2022-06-24 | 0.0 | [["2022-06-24", 0.02], ["2022-06-24", 0.34], ["2022-06-24", 0.514], ["2022-06-24", 0.6028571428571429], ["2022-06-24", 0.6], ["2022-06-25", 0.641], ["2022-06-25", 0.644], ["2022-06-25", 0.741], ["2022-06-25", 0.726], ["2022-06-26", 0.689], ["2022-06-26", 0.663], ["2022-06-26", 0.703], ["2022-06-26", 0.708], ["2022-06-27", 0.705], 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0.2006], ["2023-04-01", 0.1996]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2428 | True |
2023-01-01 | Will the total monetary value of victim losses reported by the FBI's Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3) for 2022 reach or exceed $9.0 billion? | binary |
<p>The FBI's IC3 collects Internet crime complaints and publishes an annual Internet Crime Report (<a href="https://www.ic3.gov/Home/About" target="_blank">IC3</a>). For 2021, IC3 reported in excess of $6.9 billion in total victim losses (<a href="https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/press-releases/fbi-releases-the-internet-crime-complaint-center-2021-internet-crime-report" target="_blank">FBI</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using IC3's 2022 Internet Crime Report, expected to be released in the spring of 2023 (<a href="https://www.ic3.gov/Home/AnnualReports" target="_blank">IC3 Annual Reports</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>
| 2023-03-12 | gjopen | ["https://www.forbes.com/sites/edwardsegal/2022/05/05/biden-signs-bill-to-create-cybercrime-reporting-system/?sh=32af74e71f91", "https://www.nbc15.com/2022/07/20/fbi-ramps-up-cyber-crime-prevention-efforts/", "https://us.cnn.com/2022/08/16/tech/crypto-hack-rise-2022/index.html"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2022-05-20 | 1.0 | [["2022-05-20", 0.0], ["2022-05-20", 0.495], ["2022-05-20", 0.99], ["2022-05-20", 0.495], ["2022-05-21", 0.495], ["2022-05-21", 0.495], ["2022-05-21", 0.48], ["2022-05-21", 0.96], ["2022-05-22", 0.68], ["2022-05-22", 0.4], ["2022-05-22", 0.6], ["2022-05-22", 0.6], ["2022-05-23", 0.5], ["2022-05-23", 0.61], ["2022-05-23", 0.61], ["2022-05-23", 0.61], ["2022-05-23", 0.61], ["2022-05-24", 0.61], ["2022-05-24", 0.71], ["2022-05-24", 0.71], ["2022-05-24", 0.61], ["2022-05-25", 0.76], ["2022-05-25", 0.92], ["2022-05-25", 0.92], ["2022-05-25", 0.945], ["2022-05-26", 0.945], ["2022-05-26", 0.945], ["2022-05-28", 0.96], ["2022-05-28", 0.965], ["2022-05-29", 0.95], ["2022-05-31", 0.95], ["2022-05-31", 0.955], ["2022-06-02", 0.955], ["2022-06-02", 0.955], ["2022-06-03", 0.955], ["2022-06-04", 0.965], ["2022-06-06", 0.895], ["2022-06-07", 0.845], ["2022-06-08", 0.845], ["2022-06-08", 0.845], ["2022-06-09", 0.845], ["2022-06-10", 0.8], ["2022-06-14", 0.8], ["2022-06-14", 0.8], ["2022-06-14", 0.8], ["2022-06-17", 0.8], ["2022-06-18", 0.8], ["2022-06-20", 0.8], ["2022-06-29", 0.8], ["2022-06-30", 0.8], ["2022-06-30", 0.8], ["2022-06-30", 0.8], ["2022-06-30", 0.8], ["2022-07-01", 0.8], ["2022-07-03", 0.8], ["2022-07-18", 0.86], ["2022-07-19", 0.86], ["2022-07-19", 0.86], ["2022-07-21", 0.88], ["2022-07-25", 0.88], ["2022-07-26", 0.84], ["2022-07-28", 0.805], ["2022-07-28", 0.8], ["2022-08-02", 0.8], ["2022-08-05", 0.8], ["2022-08-11", 0.84], ["2022-08-11", 0.84], ["2022-08-11", 0.885], ["2022-08-17", 0.885], ["2022-08-25", 0.8342], ["2022-08-25", 0.8383], ["2022-09-01", 0.8375], ["2022-09-15", 0.8083], ["2022-09-25", 0.8], ["2022-10-02", 0.7923], ["2022-10-07", 0.7892], ["2022-10-14", 0.7877], ["2022-10-19", 0.7877], ["2022-10-21", 0.8108], ["2022-11-04", 0.8138], ["2022-11-19", 0.7985], ["2022-11-22", 0.7769], ["2022-11-24", 0.7754], ["2022-12-06", 0.7677], ["2022-12-06", 0.7814], ["2022-12-10", 0.78], ["2022-12-12", 0.7979], ["2022-12-12", 0.7871], ["2022-12-19", 0.7957], ["2022-12-25", 0.7886], ["2022-12-25", 0.8036], ["2022-12-25", 0.8036], ["2022-12-26", 0.7957], ["2022-12-27", 0.7986], ["2022-12-27", 0.7986], ["2022-12-27", 0.8093], ["2022-12-30", 0.8093], ["2023-01-01", 0.8093]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2397 | True |
2023-12-02 | Will Twitter, Inc. file for bankruptcy in the US before 2 December 2023? | binary |
<p>Twitter has seen the departure of senior executives, advertising pauses by clients, and other developments since Elon Musk took the company private in late October 2022, with Musk mentioning the possibility of bankruptcy for the firm (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/29/a-brief-history-of-twitter-from-its-founding-in-2006-to-musk-takeover.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-11-10/twitter-information-security-chief-kissner-decides-to-leave" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/11/12/1136205315/musk-twitter-bankruptcy-how-likely" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bankruptcy.asp" target="_blank">Investopedia</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 13 April 2023</span>: We are aware of the changes to Twitter's corporate status, that it was merged with a new, Nevada-incorporated firm called "X Corp." (NV Business ID NV20232715940) with the parent company "X Holdings Corp." (NV Business ID NV20232715924), also a Nevada-incorporated firm. A bankruptcy filing for whatever entity is the corporate successor in interest to Twitter, Inc., or its parent company would close this question "Yes.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-12-02 | gjopen | ["https://waf.cs.illinois.edu/visualizations/Perception-of-Probability-Words/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/29/technology/twitter-ceo-linda-yaccarino.html?campaign_id=2&emc=edit_th_20230630&instance_id=96383&nl=todaysheadlines&regi_id=77825025&segment_id=138029&user_id=dc6933c94fc82416d25dd297622374d1", "https://www.spiegel.de/netzwelt/apps/elon-musks-x-verliert-immer-mehr-werbeeinnahmen-a-71dec398-02a6-42eb-a4cb-15ae4482f51d", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/29/technology/twitter-ceo-linda-yaccarino.html?campaign_id=2&emc=edit_th_20230630&instance_id=96383&nl=todaysheadlines%C2%AEi_id=77825025&segment_id=138029&user_id=dc6933c94fc82416d25dd297622374d1", "https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/elon-musk-twitter-x-bankruptcy-b2432578.html", "https://lite.cnn.com/2023/07/15/business/twitter-cash-flow-elon-musk/index.html", "https://www.ft.com/content/57dfeeab-02b7-4267-842c-a7e920d6616d", "https://lite.cnn.com/2023/07/10/tech/twitter-threads-future/index.html", "https://www.wsj.com/tech/one-year-on-twitter-continues-to-burn-a-hole-through-bank-balance-sheets-d92dfe12", "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/banks-black-eye-billions-losses-120000136.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAMaiC7cxgf-E8sJ6Yx7rjVZ8dNRKzKIEick-mvFiDKSZbHKiVeII2rgSpB2cF_VcN9h-Cm9NIELAB5coJ3xCM4TPk2G0O5ycDKLXDVWadNDgyDgXVH0_7aH9BvFi8_c5X6x6gDEp637hbkyROzLcuUzdjr7xkzpn3lg36w4zWt5w", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/30/technology/x-twitter-19-billion-dollars.html?campaign_id=57&emc=edit_ne_20231030&instance_id=106493&nl=the-evening", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/29/technology/twitter-ceo-linda-yaccarino.html?campaign_id=2&emc=edit_th_20230630&instance_id=96383&nl=todaysheadlines", "https://puck.news/twitters-debt-time-bomb-linda-alarms/", "https://lite.cnn.com/2023/08/10/media/linda-yaccarino-elon-musk-reliable-sources/index.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/oct/10/eu-warns-elon-musk-over-disinformation-about-hamas-attack-on-x", "https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jul/08/if-threads-is-the-final-nail-in-twitters-coffin-where-will-the-journalists-and-politicos-go", "https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2023/07/twitter-outage-elon-musk-user-restrictions/674609/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/30/technology/x-twitter-19-billion-dollars.html?campaign_id=57&emc=edit_ne_20231030&instance_id=106493&nl=the-evening&regi_id=77825025&segment_id=148723&te=1&user_id=dc6933c94fc82416d25dd297622374d1", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b77S6Y7BiNc", "https://archive.ph/u8Brt", "https://fortune.com/2023/10/06/elon-musk-twitter-x-financing-wall-street-banks/", "https://www.investopedia.com/twitter-worth-a-third-of-what-musk-paid-7506093", "https://www.vox.com/technology/2023/4/18/23687125/elon-musk-twitter-x-super-app-wechat", "https://twitter.com/ThierryBreton/status/1711808891757944866", "https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2023/07/twitter-musk-x-rebrand/674818/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2022-11-18 | 0.0 | [["2022-11-18", 0.53], ["2022-11-18", 0.3125], ["2022-11-18", 0.252], ["2022-11-18", 0.2367], ["2022-11-18", 0.2557], ["2022-11-18", 0.2289], ["2022-11-18", 0.2855], ["2022-11-18", 0.2715], ["2022-11-18", 0.2793], ["2022-11-19", 0.2631], ["2022-11-19", 0.2378], ["2022-11-19", 0.2565], ["2022-11-19", 0.2377], ["2022-11-19", 0.2388], ["2022-11-19", 0.2527], ["2022-11-19", 0.2811], ["2022-11-19", 0.2957], ["2022-11-19", 0.2953], ["2022-11-19", 0.2834], ["2022-11-19", 0.3021], ["2022-11-19", 0.3164], ["2022-11-19", 0.3076], ["2022-11-19", 0.2962], ["2022-11-19", 0.3037], ["2022-11-19", 0.2988], ["2022-11-20", 0.3063], ["2022-11-20", 0.3144], ["2022-11-20", 0.3264], ["2022-11-20", 0.3178], ["2022-11-20", 0.3121], ["2022-11-20", 0.3002], ["2022-11-20", 0.3106], ["2022-11-20", 0.3102], ["2022-11-21", 0.3152], ["2022-11-21", 0.3089], ["2022-11-21", 0.3059], ["2022-11-21", 0.3335], ["2022-11-21", 0.3288], ["2022-11-21", 0.331], ["2022-11-22", 0.3594], ["2022-11-22", 0.3616], ["2022-11-22", 0.3556], ["2022-11-22", 0.377], ["2022-11-22", 0.3683], ["2022-11-22", 0.333], ["2022-11-22", 0.3292], ["2022-11-22", 0.3297], ["2022-11-23", 0.3015], ["2022-11-23", 0.3006], ["2022-11-23", 0.301], ["2022-11-23", 0.3026], ["2022-11-23", 0.3072], ["2022-11-23", 0.309], ["2022-11-23", 0.3035], ["2022-11-24", 0.2852], ["2022-11-24", 0.2837], ["2022-11-24", 0.2738], ["2022-11-24", 0.2626], ["2022-11-24", 0.281], ["2022-11-24", 0.2416], ["2022-11-24", 0.2223], ["2022-11-25", 0.2088], ["2022-11-25", 0.19], ["2022-11-25", 0.1953], ["2022-11-25", 0.1871], ["2022-11-25", 0.1881], ["2022-11-26", 0.1978], ["2022-11-26", 0.1938], ["2022-11-26", 0.1938], ["2022-11-26", 0.1938], ["2022-11-27", 0.1916], ["2022-11-27", 0.1911], ["2022-11-27", 0.1892], ["2022-11-28", 0.1889], ["2022-11-28", 0.195], ["2022-11-28", 0.2087], ["2022-11-28", 0.2042], ["2022-11-28", 0.2013], ["2022-11-29", 0.1867], ["2022-11-29", 0.1887], ["2022-11-29", 0.1838], ["2022-11-29", 0.1825], ["2022-11-30", 0.1938], ["2022-11-30", 0.1948], ["2022-11-30", 0.211], ["2022-12-01", 0.2108], ["2022-12-02", 0.21], ["2022-12-02", 0.217], ["2022-12-03", 0.2261], ["2022-12-03", 0.2259], ["2022-12-03", 0.2254], ["2022-12-03", 0.2279], ["2022-12-03", 0.2383], ["2022-12-05", 0.2379], ["2022-12-05", 0.2371], ["2022-12-05", 0.2326], ["2022-12-06", 0.2333], ["2022-12-06", 0.2277], ["2022-12-06", 0.2307], ["2022-12-07", 0.2396], ["2022-12-08", 0.2361], ["2022-12-08", 0.2537], ["2022-12-09", 0.2361], ["2022-12-09", 0.235], ["2022-12-09", 0.2359], ["2022-12-09", 0.233], ["2022-12-11", 0.2428], ["2022-12-12", 0.2587], ["2022-12-12", 0.2562], ["2022-12-13", 0.2453], ["2022-12-13", 0.2402], ["2022-12-14", 0.2406], ["2022-12-14", 0.2396], ["2022-12-14", 0.2452], ["2022-12-15", 0.2452], ["2022-12-16", 0.2454], ["2022-12-16", 0.2452], ["2022-12-16", 0.2496], ["2022-12-17", 0.2502], ["2022-12-17", 0.2598], ["2022-12-17", 0.2616], ["2022-12-18", 0.2631], ["2022-12-19", 0.27], ["2022-12-19", 0.2735], 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2022-05-26 | Between 8 March 2022 and 25 May 2022, will the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA) screen 2.4 million or more travelers in a single day? | binary |
<p>The outcome will be determined using "TSA checkpoint travel numbers" as reported by the TSA (<a href="https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput" target="_blank">TSA</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-05-26 | gjopen | ["https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-summer-travelers-can-expect-long-lines-higher-prices-covid-restrictions-ease-2022-05-05/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=daily-briefing", "https://github.com/belikewaterUS/belikewaterUS/blob/main/tsa%20percentages.jpeg", "https://flightaware.com/miserymap/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1445699", "https://www.statology.org/probability-of-at-least-one-success/", "https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/delta-sees-return-profit-consumer-travel-demand-hits-historic-levels-2022-04-13/", "https://www.chicago.gov/city/en/sites/covid-19/home/emergency-travel-order.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1448970", "https://github.com/belikewaterUS/belikewaterUS/blob/main/tsa%20numbers.jpeg", "https://simpleflying.com/tsa-saw-3rd-busiest-day-since-covid-began/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1417510", "https://www.dogpile.com/serp?qc=images&q=michigan+stadium+full", "https://www.eurocontrol.int/Economics/DailyTrafficVariation-States.html", "https://www.dogpile.com/serp?qc=images&q=royal+albert+hall+full", "https://www.adn.com/business-economy/2022/05/04/travel-chaos-returns-for-alaska-airlines-customers-as-the-company-blames-the-calendar/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1431413", "https://flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday", "https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/american-airlines-reports-smaller-loss-pickup-travel-offsets-omicron-blip-2022-04-21/", "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics", "https://www.npr.org/2022/01/13/1072529477/more-than-1-million-fewer-students-are-in-college-the-lowest-enrollment-numbers-", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1439059", "https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/1358669/probability-of-an-event-occuring-at-least-once-in-50-tries", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1446298", "https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7EPxjoatllI"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2022-03-09 | 0.0 | [["2022-03-15", 0.525], ["2022-03-15", 0.25], ["2022-03-15", 0.65], ["2022-03-15", 0.475], ["2022-03-15", 0.475], ["2022-03-15", 0.5], ["2022-03-15", 0.65], ["2022-03-15", 0.65], ["2022-03-15", 0.8], ["2022-03-16", 0.65], ["2022-03-16", 0.77], ["2022-03-16", 0.71], ["2022-03-16", 0.75], ["2022-03-16", 0.68], ["2022-03-16", 0.68], ["2022-03-16", 0.68], ["2022-03-16", 0.75], ["2022-03-16", 0.75], ["2022-03-16", 0.75], ["2022-03-16", 0.75], ["2022-03-16", 0.75], ["2022-03-16", 0.75], ["2022-03-16", 0.75], ["2022-03-16", 0.75], ["2022-03-16", 0.75], ["2022-03-16", 0.75], ["2022-03-16", 0.75], ["2022-03-16", 0.76], ["2022-03-16", 0.76], ["2022-03-16", 0.76], ["2022-03-17", 0.75], ["2022-03-17", 0.76], ["2022-03-17", 0.75], ["2022-03-17", 0.76], ["2022-03-17", 0.77], ["2022-03-17", 0.77], ["2022-03-17", 0.77], ["2022-03-17", 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0.0], ["2022-05-24", 0.0], ["2022-05-24", 0.0], ["2022-05-24", 0.0], ["2022-05-24", 0.0], ["2022-05-24", 0.0], ["2022-05-24", 0.0], ["2022-05-24", 0.0], ["2022-05-25", 0.0], ["2022-05-25", 0.0], ["2022-05-25", 0.0], ["2022-05-25", 0.0], ["2022-05-25", 0.0], ["2022-05-25", 0.0], ["2022-05-26", 0.0], ["2022-05-26", 0.0], ["2022-05-26", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2303 | True |
2021-07-01 | Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation nationalizing private pension fund assets? | binary |
<p>Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for the reform of Chile’s pension system have grown (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chile-protests-pensions/chiles-fiery-anger-fueled-by-fears-of-poverty-in-old-age-idUSKBN1XB3U8" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle" target="_blank">IPE</a>, <a href="https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2019/06/08/chile-tinkers-with-its-ground-breaking-pensions-system" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.eiu.com/industry/article/1898259973/chiles-pension-reform-makes-progress/2019-07-23" target="_blank">Economist Intelligence Unit</a>, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a" target="_blank">Financial Times</a>). Examples of nationalization include, but are not limited to, the enactment of legislation compelling the divestiture or transfer of privately held pension funds to a public entity or the state, or a constitutional amendment to the same effect. The date or dates of actual asset nationalization would be immaterial.</p><p>Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1418, which closes in 2020 (<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1418" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">Question #1418</a>). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates.<br></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. 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scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-07-01 | gjopen | ["https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1168479"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2019-12-04 | 0.0 | [["2019-12-04", 0.04], ["2019-12-04", 0.11], ["2019-12-04", 0.18], ["2019-12-04", 0.18], ["2019-12-04", 0.265], ["2019-12-04", 0.28], ["2019-12-05", 0.23], ["2019-12-05", 0.23], ["2019-12-05", 0.23], ["2019-12-05", 0.18], ["2019-12-06", 0.18], ["2019-12-06", 0.215], ["2019-12-06", 0.215], ["2019-12-06", 0.205], ["2019-12-06", 0.2], ["2019-12-06", 0.18], ["2019-12-07", 0.18], ["2019-12-07", 0.205], ["2019-12-07", 0.205], ["2019-12-08", 0.235], ["2019-12-08", 0.235], ["2019-12-08", 0.235], ["2019-12-09", 0.235], ["2019-12-09", 0.24], ["2019-12-09", 0.24], ["2019-12-10", 0.245], ["2019-12-10", 0.245], ["2019-12-10", 0.245], ["2019-12-10", 0.195], ["2019-12-11", 0.24], ["2019-12-11", 0.24], ["2019-12-11", 0.24], ["2019-12-11", 0.24], ["2019-12-11", 0.24], ["2019-12-12", 0.24], 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2023-06-12 | Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and/or law enforcement of Russia and those of a NATO member state resulting in at least three fatalities before 12 June 2023? | binary |
<p>As Russia's war in Ukraine continues, NATO continues to support the country's defense without direct involvement (<a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/3724672-putin-may-take-catastrophic-action-in-ukraine-while-washington-mulls-the-midterms/" target="_blank">The Hill</a>, <a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/10/12/russia-ukraine-strikes-france-europe-reaction-aid" target="_blank">Axios</a>, <a href="https://www.unian.net/war/voennyy-ekspert-oleg-zhdanov-rf-segodnya-polnostyu-poteryala-nastupatelnyy-potencial-a-zavtra-poteryaet-i-oboronitelnyy-12037347.html" target="_blank">Unian</a> [in Ukrainian]). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results at least three fatalities (total, not each) for the national military forces and/or law enforcement of either side. As of launch, there were 30 NATO member states (<a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_52044.htm" target="_blank">NATO</a>). For the purposes of this question, members of armed forces fighting without command authorization are not considered "national military forces and/or law enforcement" (e.g., <a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-europe-d0243a1708a3115e5ad0ac40aed99b9f" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-60684749" target="_blank">BBC</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-06-12 | gjopen | ["https://www.fpri.org/article/2021/12/crowded-pond-nato-and-russian-maritime-power-in-the-baltic-sea/", "https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/16/europe/poland-missile-russia-ukraine-investigation-wednesday-intl-hnk/index.html", "https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskyy-kherson-9202c032cf3a5c22761ee71b52ff9d52", "https://www.americansecurityproject.org/us-russia-relationship/russian-military-incident-tracker/", "https://www.coffeeordie.com/wagner-group-syria-khasham", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/11/15/russia-ukraine-war-g20-latest-updates/", "https://www.ft.com/content/88d19145-5235-45e4-80e6-ade3530060d2", "https://www.dw.com/en/biden-says-unlikely-missile-fired-from-russia/a-63770954", "https://on.ft.com/3XFaFSi", "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/blast-heard-military-plant-irans-central-city-isfahan-state-media-2023-01-28/", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/07/nato-members-may-send-troops-to-ukraine-warns-former-alliance-chief"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2022-11-11 | 0.0 | [["2022-11-11", 0.0], ["2022-11-11", 0.055], ["2022-11-11", 0.0533], ["2022-11-11", 0.06], ["2022-11-11", 0.228], ["2022-11-11", 0.148], ["2022-11-11", 0.1283], ["2022-11-11", 0.1271], ["2022-11-11", 0.1238], ["2022-11-11", 0.11], ["2022-11-11", 0.104], ["2022-11-11", 0.0982], ["2022-11-11", 0.0973], ["2022-11-11", 0.0933], ["2022-11-11", 0.0862], ["2022-11-11", 0.0814], ["2022-11-11", 0.0827], ["2022-11-11", 0.0794], ["2022-11-12", 0.0747], ["2022-11-12", 0.0744], ["2022-11-12", 0.0716], ["2022-11-12", 0.108], ["2022-11-12", 0.078], ["2022-11-12", 0.0752], ["2022-11-12", 0.0748], ["2022-11-12", 0.0736], ["2022-11-12", 0.0704], ["2022-11-12", 0.0733], ["2022-11-12", 0.0756], ["2022-11-12", 0.0762], ["2022-11-12", 0.0748], ["2022-11-12", 0.0721], ["2022-11-12", 0.0697], ["2022-11-12", 0.0693], 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0.1076], ["2023-03-31", 0.1008], ["2023-03-31", 0.091], ["2023-04-01", 0.0914], ["2023-04-01", 0.0914], ["2023-04-03", 0.0914], ["2023-04-03", 0.091], ["2023-04-03", 0.0921], ["2023-04-03", 0.0917], ["2023-04-04", 0.0908], ["2023-04-04", 0.0908], ["2023-04-04", 0.0906], ["2023-04-05", 0.0906], ["2023-04-07", 0.0923], ["2023-04-07", 0.0923], ["2023-04-10", 0.0917], ["2023-04-10", 0.0915], ["2023-04-10", 0.0915], ["2023-04-11", 0.0896], ["2023-04-11", 0.0894], ["2023-04-12", 0.0894], ["2023-04-12", 0.0892], ["2023-04-13", 0.0888], ["2023-04-14", 0.0879], ["2023-04-14", 0.0715], ["2023-04-14", 0.0709], ["2023-04-14", 0.066], ["2023-04-16", 0.066], ["2023-04-16", 0.0657], ["2023-04-16", 0.0657], ["2023-04-16", 0.0666], ["2023-04-17", 0.0664], ["2023-04-17", 0.066], ["2023-04-17", 0.0658], ["2023-04-17", 0.0655], ["2023-04-18", 0.0655], ["2023-04-18", 0.0649], ["2023-04-20", 0.0647], ["2023-04-21", 0.0653], ["2023-04-21", 0.0653], ["2023-04-23", 0.0636], ["2023-04-24", 0.063], ["2023-04-24", 0.0628], ["2023-04-25", 0.0628], ["2023-04-25", 0.06], ["2023-04-26", 0.06], ["2023-04-27", 0.06], ["2023-04-28", 0.0594], ["2023-04-28", 0.0589], ["2023-04-28", 0.0587], ["2023-04-29", 0.0559], ["2023-04-29", 0.0557], ["2023-04-29", 0.0556], ["2023-05-01", 0.0554], ["2023-05-02", 0.0556], ["2023-05-02", 0.0494], ["2023-05-03", 0.0496], ["2023-05-03", 0.0493], ["2023-05-04", 0.0491], ["2023-05-06", 0.0493], ["2023-05-06", 0.0489], ["2023-05-07", 0.0489], ["2023-05-08", 0.0474], ["2023-05-09", 0.0467], ["2023-05-09", 0.0465], ["2023-05-09", 0.0463], ["2023-05-10", 0.0461], ["2023-05-10", 0.0459], ["2023-05-10", 0.0456], ["2023-05-11", 0.0461], ["2023-05-11", 0.0461], ["2023-05-11", 0.0459], ["2023-05-11", 0.0457], ["2023-05-11", 0.0456], ["2023-05-12", 0.0437], ["2023-05-12", 0.0437], ["2023-05-12", 0.0429], ["2023-05-13", 0.0425], ["2023-05-13", 0.0424], ["2023-05-13", 0.0449], ["2023-05-14", 0.0449], ["2023-05-14", 0.0435], ["2023-05-15", 0.0433], ["2023-05-15", 0.0433], ["2023-05-16", 0.0429], ["2023-05-17", 0.0423], ["2023-05-17", 0.0418], ["2023-05-19", 0.0414], ["2023-05-19", 0.0407], ["2023-05-19", 0.0405], ["2023-05-19", 0.0404], ["2023-05-20", 0.0404], ["2023-05-21", 0.04], ["2023-05-21", 0.04], ["2023-05-22", 0.042], ["2023-05-22", 0.042], ["2023-05-22", 0.042], ["2023-05-22", 0.0418], ["2023-05-24", 0.0382], ["2023-05-24", 0.0382], ["2023-05-25", 0.0382], ["2023-05-25", 0.0382], ["2023-05-25", 0.0384], ["2023-05-25", 0.038], ["2023-05-26", 0.0379], ["2023-05-26", 0.0379], ["2023-05-28", 0.0379], ["2023-05-28", 0.0377], ["2023-05-29", 0.0373], ["2023-05-30", 0.037], ["2023-05-30", 0.0368], ["2023-05-31", 0.0363], ["2023-05-31", 0.0363], ["2023-05-31", 0.0363], ["2023-05-31", 0.0363], ["2023-06-01", 0.0363], ["2023-06-01", 0.0353], ["2023-06-01", 0.0333], ["2023-06-01", 0.0307], ["2023-06-02", 0.0304], ["2023-06-02", 0.0304], ["2023-06-02", 0.0304], ["2023-06-03", 0.0277], ["2023-06-04", 0.0272], ["2023-06-04", 0.0272], ["2023-06-05", 0.0271], ["2023-06-05", 0.0264], ["2023-06-05", 0.0247], ["2023-06-05", 0.0241], ["2023-06-05", 0.0217], ["2023-06-05", 0.0191], ["2023-06-05", 0.0193], ["2023-06-05", 0.0193], ["2023-06-05", 0.019], ["2023-06-05", 0.0188], ["2023-06-05", 0.0172], ["2023-06-05", 0.0169], ["2023-06-05", 0.0167], ["2023-06-06", 0.015], ["2023-06-06", 0.0148], ["2023-06-06", 0.0148], ["2023-06-06", 0.0148], ["2023-06-06", 0.0147], ["2023-06-06", 0.0147], ["2023-06-07", 0.0147], ["2023-06-08", 0.0147], ["2023-06-08", 0.0147], ["2023-06-08", 0.0143], ["2023-06-08", 0.0141], ["2023-06-08", 0.0138], ["2023-06-08", 0.0138], ["2023-06-09", 0.0136], ["2023-06-09", 0.0136], ["2023-06-09", 0.0134], ["2023-06-09", 0.0133], ["2023-06-09", 0.0241], ["2023-06-09", 0.0215], ["2023-06-10", 0.0215], ["2023-06-12", 0.0215]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2619 | True |
2021-01-01 | Will the United Arab Emirates (UAE) be ranked higher than 21st in the Global Food Security Index Rankings for 2020? | binary |
<p>The UAE recently launched the "Emirates Food Security Council" tasked with enhancing food security for the country (<a href="https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/united-arab-emirates-uae-food-security-council" target="_blank">USDA</a>). The outcome will be determined using data for 2020 as provided by the Global Food Security Index, expected to be released in 2021 (<a href="https://foodsecurityindex.eiu.com/Index" target="_blank">Food Security Index</a>). For 2019, the UAE was tied with Japan for 21st place.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>
| 2021-02-25 | gjopen | ["https://www.iofs.org.kz/fr/post/155", "https://foodsecurityindex.eiu.com/Index"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2020-05-21 | 0.0 | [["2020-05-21", 0.0], ["2020-05-21", 0.35], ["2020-05-21", 0.01], ["2020-05-21", 0.32], ["2020-05-21", 0.5], ["2020-05-21", 0.565], ["2020-05-21", 0.63], ["2020-05-21", 0.565], ["2020-05-22", 0.63], ["2020-05-22", 0.665], ["2020-05-22", 0.7], ["2020-05-22", 0.7], ["2020-05-22", 0.74], ["2020-05-22", 0.74], ["2020-05-22", 0.74], ["2020-05-22", 0.755], ["2020-05-23", 0.755], ["2020-05-23", 0.78], ["2020-05-23", 0.78], ["2020-05-24", 0.78], ["2020-05-24", 0.78], ["2020-05-24", 0.67], ["2020-05-24", 0.67], ["2020-05-24", 0.67], ["2020-05-24", 0.85], ["2020-05-25", 0.85], ["2020-05-25", 0.725], ["2020-05-25", 0.65], ["2020-05-25", 0.55], ["2020-05-25", 0.575], ["2020-05-25", 0.625], ["2020-05-25", 0.65], ["2020-05-26", 0.69], ["2020-05-26", 0.67], ["2020-05-27", 0.695], ["2020-05-27", 0.67], ["2020-05-27", 0.67], ["2020-05-28", 0.67], ["2020-05-28", 0.67], ["2020-05-28", 0.67], ["2020-05-28", 0.72], ["2020-05-29", 0.75], ["2020-05-31", 0.85], ["2020-06-01", 0.85], ["2020-06-01", 0.85], ["2020-06-01", 0.85], ["2020-06-01", 0.855], ["2020-06-02", 0.855], ["2020-06-02", 0.855], ["2020-06-02", 0.85], ["2020-06-03", 0.86], ["2020-06-03", 0.85], ["2020-06-04", 0.85], ["2020-06-05", 0.855], ["2020-06-05", 0.855], ["2020-06-05", 0.85], ["2020-06-06", 0.85], ["2020-06-06", 0.85], ["2020-06-07", 0.85], ["2020-06-08", 0.85], ["2020-06-09", 0.85], ["2020-06-10", 0.8], ["2020-06-11", 0.825], ["2020-06-11", 0.825], ["2020-06-12", 0.825], ["2020-06-12", 0.825], ["2020-06-14", 0.825], ["2020-06-14", 0.825], ["2020-06-15", 0.825], ["2020-06-15", 0.8], ["2020-06-15", 0.85], ["2020-06-17", 0.85], ["2020-06-17", 0.825], ["2020-06-18", 0.825], ["2020-06-21", 0.825], ["2020-06-22", 0.825], ["2020-06-23", 0.825], ["2020-06-25", 0.85], ["2020-06-26", 0.85], ["2020-06-26", 0.8], ["2020-06-28", 0.8], ["2020-06-29", 0.8], ["2020-06-29", 0.825], ["2020-06-30", 0.825], ["2020-07-01", 0.85], ["2020-07-02", 0.825], ["2020-07-02", 0.825], ["2020-07-04", 0.825], ["2020-07-06", 0.825], ["2020-07-06", 0.85], ["2020-07-06", 0.85], ["2020-07-07", 0.85], ["2020-07-07", 0.85], ["2020-07-08", 0.85], ["2020-07-08", 0.85], ["2020-07-09", 0.85], ["2020-07-13", 0.85], ["2020-07-13", 0.85], ["2020-07-16", 0.85], ["2020-07-16", 0.85], ["2020-07-18", 0.85], ["2020-07-20", 0.85], ["2020-07-20", 0.85], ["2020-07-20", 0.86], ["2020-07-23", 0.86], ["2020-07-25", 0.87], ["2020-07-27", 0.87], ["2020-07-29", 0.88], ["2020-07-31", 0.88], ["2020-08-01", 0.88], ["2020-08-02", 0.9], ["2020-08-03", 0.9], ["2020-08-03", 0.9], ["2020-08-05", 0.9], ["2020-08-06", 0.9], ["2020-08-11", 0.9], ["2020-08-14", 0.9], ["2020-08-14", 0.9], ["2020-08-17", 0.9], ["2020-08-18", 0.9], ["2020-08-19", 0.9], ["2020-08-19", 0.9], ["2020-08-22", 0.9], ["2020-08-26", 0.9], ["2020-08-27", 0.9], ["2020-08-29", 0.9], ["2020-08-31", 0.9], ["2020-09-04", 0.9], ["2020-09-09", 0.9], ["2020-09-15", 0.9], ["2020-09-15", 0.9], ["2020-09-22", 0.9], ["2020-09-28", 0.9], ["2020-10-03", 0.9], ["2020-10-05", 0.9], ["2020-10-13", 0.9], ["2020-10-13", 0.9], ["2020-10-13", 0.9], ["2020-10-14", 0.9], ["2020-10-14", 0.9], ["2020-10-15", 0.9], ["2020-10-17", 0.9], ["2020-10-18", 0.9], ["2020-10-19", 0.9], ["2020-10-21", 0.9], ["2020-11-06", 0.9], ["2020-11-08", 0.9], ["2020-11-14", 0.9], ["2020-11-17", 0.9], ["2020-11-17", 0.91], ["2020-11-18", 0.92], ["2020-11-19", 0.92], ["2020-11-21", 0.92], ["2020-11-27", 0.92], ["2020-11-27", 0.935], ["2020-12-06", 0.95], ["2020-12-09", 0.95], ["2020-12-09", 0.95], ["2020-12-10", 0.95], ["2020-12-10", 0.95], ["2020-12-19", 0.95], ["2020-12-22", 0.95], ["2020-12-24", 0.95], ["2020-12-25", 0.95], ["2020-12-25", 0.95], ["2020-12-28", 0.95], ["2020-12-28", 0.95], ["2020-12-29", 0.95], ["2020-12-30", 0.95], ["2020-12-31", 0.95], ["2020-12-31", 0.955], ["2021-01-01", 0.955]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1625 | True |
2021-06-17 | In California v. Texas, will the Supreme Court rule that reducing the penalty amount for the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to zero rendered the individual mandate provision unconstitutional? | binary |
<p>After the Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the ACA in NFIB v. Sibelius, Congress subsequently reduced the penalty for failing to acquire health insurance to $0 (<a href="https://www.kff.org/health-reform/issue-brief/explaining-texas-v-u-s-a-guide-to-the-case-challenging-the-aca/" target="_blank">Kaiser Family Foundation</a>, <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/5000A" target="_blank">Law.cornell.edu</a> (see §(3)(A)), <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/365785-congress-repeals-obamacare-mandate-fulfilling-longtime-gop-goal" target="_blank">The Hill</a>). Texas sued to have the ACA declared unconstitutional and prevailed in both District Court and the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals (<a href="https://static.politico.com/17/86/6721f2eb435fb2512430e54c2904/220.pdf" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="https://casetext.com/case/texas-v-united-states-31" target="_blank">Casetext</a>). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-06-17 | gjopen | ["https://reason.com/volokh/2021/04/23/the-range-of-options-for-california-v-texas/", "https://www.scotusblog.com/2021/02/biden-administration-notifies-court-of-new-position-on-affordable-care-act/", "https://www.businessinsider.com/supreme-court-upholds-affordable-care-act-california-v-texas-2021-6", "https://ballotpedia.org/SCOTUS_case_reversal_rates_(2007_-_Present", "https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/20pdf/19-840_6jfm.pdf"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2020-09-04 | 0.0 | [["2020-09-04", 0.6], ["2020-09-04", 0.575], ["2020-09-04", 0.55], ["2020-09-04", 0.5], ["2020-09-04", 0.45], ["2020-09-04", 0.29], ["2020-09-04", 0.13], ["2020-09-04", 0.29], ["2020-09-04", 0.45], ["2020-09-04", 0.13], ["2020-09-04", 0.25], ["2020-09-05", 0.2], ["2020-09-05", 0.15], ["2020-09-05", 0.14], ["2020-09-05", 0.14], ["2020-09-05", 0.14], ["2020-09-06", 0.125], ["2020-09-06", 0.125], ["2020-09-06", 0.125], ["2020-09-06", 0.1], ["2020-09-06", 0.1], ["2020-09-06", 0.1], ["2020-09-06", 0.075], ["2020-09-07", 0.075], ["2020-09-07", 0.075], ["2020-09-07", 0.04], ["2020-09-07", 0.025], ["2020-09-07", 0.025], ["2020-09-07", 0.02], ["2020-09-07", 0.02], ["2020-09-07", 0.02], ["2020-09-07", 0.02], ["2020-09-07", 0.02], ["2020-09-07", 0.04], ["2020-09-08", 0.06], ["2020-09-08", 0.08], ["2020-09-08", 0.08], ["2020-09-09", 0.09], ["2020-09-09", 0.09], ["2020-09-09", 0.125], ["2020-09-09", 0.15], ["2020-09-09", 0.15], ["2020-09-09", 0.15], ["2020-09-10", 0.15], ["2020-09-10", 0.15], ["2020-09-10", 0.15], ["2020-09-10", 0.15], ["2020-09-10", 0.15], ["2020-09-10", 0.15], ["2020-09-11", 0.15], ["2020-09-11", 0.15], ["2020-09-12", 0.125], ["2020-09-13", 0.125], ["2020-09-13", 0.095], ["2020-09-13", 0.125], ["2020-09-13", 0.125], ["2020-09-13", 0.125], ["2020-09-13", 0.125], ["2020-09-13", 0.095], ["2020-09-13", 0.125], ["2020-09-13", 0.125], ["2020-09-13", 0.1], ["2020-09-14", 0.1], ["2020-09-14", 0.09], ["2020-09-15", 0.095], ["2020-09-15", 0.125], ["2020-09-15", 0.125], ["2020-09-16", 0.15], ["2020-09-17", 0.175], ["2020-09-17", 0.25], ["2020-09-17", 0.25], ["2020-09-18", 0.175], ["2020-09-19", 0.175], ["2020-09-19", 0.175], ["2020-09-19", 0.15], ["2020-09-19", 0.15], ["2020-09-19", 0.2], ["2020-09-19", 0.2], ["2020-09-19", 0.275], ["2020-09-20", 0.325], ["2020-09-20", 0.375], ["2020-09-20", 0.375], ["2020-09-20", 0.375], ["2020-09-21", 0.35], ["2020-09-21", 0.35], ["2020-09-21", 0.35], ["2020-09-21", 0.35], ["2020-09-21", 0.35], ["2020-09-22", 0.35], ["2020-09-22", 0.35], ["2020-09-22", 0.325], ["2020-09-23", 0.325], ["2020-09-23", 0.325], ["2020-09-23", 0.325], ["2020-09-24", 0.325], ["2020-09-24", 0.325], ["2020-09-24", 0.325], ["2020-09-26", 0.3], ["2020-09-27", 0.3], ["2020-09-27", 0.3], ["2020-09-27", 0.3], ["2020-09-28", 0.3], ["2020-09-28", 0.3], ["2020-09-29", 0.3], ["2020-09-29", 0.3], ["2020-09-29", 0.3], ["2020-09-30", 0.3], ["2020-09-30", 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["2020-12-01", 0.1], ["2020-12-01", 0.1], ["2020-12-02", 0.1], ["2020-12-02", 0.1], ["2020-12-03", 0.115], ["2020-12-03", 0.115], ["2020-12-03", 0.1], ["2020-12-04", 0.1], ["2020-12-06", 0.1], ["2020-12-06", 0.085], ["2020-12-08", 0.085], ["2020-12-08", 0.085], ["2020-12-08", 0.085], ["2020-12-09", 0.06], ["2020-12-09", 0.06], ["2020-12-12", 0.06], ["2020-12-12", 0.06], ["2020-12-12", 0.05], ["2020-12-13", 0.05], ["2020-12-14", 0.03], ["2020-12-15", 0.03], ["2020-12-15", 0.03], ["2020-12-16", 0.03], ["2020-12-17", 0.03], ["2020-12-18", 0.03], ["2020-12-18", 0.03], ["2020-12-19", 0.01], ["2020-12-21", 0.02], ["2020-12-22", 0.015], ["2020-12-22", 0.015], ["2020-12-25", 0.015], ["2020-12-25", 0.015], ["2020-12-26", 0.02], ["2020-12-26", 0.02], ["2021-01-04", 0.02], ["2021-01-04", 0.015], ["2021-01-04", 0.02], ["2021-01-04", 0.01], ["2021-01-05", 0.01], ["2021-01-06", 0.01], ["2021-01-08", 0.01], ["2021-01-08", 0.01], ["2021-01-09", 0.01], ["2021-01-09", 0.01], ["2021-01-12", 0.01], ["2021-01-13", 0.01], ["2021-01-14", 0.01], ["2021-01-17", 0.01], ["2021-01-18", 0.01], ["2021-01-18", 0.01], ["2021-01-18", 0.01], ["2021-01-18", 0.01], ["2021-01-18", 0.01], ["2021-01-26", 0.01], ["2021-01-26", 0.005], ["2021-01-27", 0.005], ["2021-01-28", 0.005], ["2021-01-31", 0.005], ["2021-01-31", 0.005], ["2021-01-31", 0.005], ["2021-02-01", 0.0], ["2021-02-05", 0.0], ["2021-02-06", 0.0], ["2021-02-09", 0.0], ["2021-02-09", 0.0], ["2021-02-10", 0.0], ["2021-02-11", 0.005], ["2021-02-14", 0.005], ["2021-02-20", 0.0], ["2021-02-21", 0.0], ["2021-02-26", 0.0], ["2021-03-04", 0.0], ["2021-03-05", 0.0], ["2021-03-05", 0.0], ["2021-03-07", 0.0], ["2021-03-08", 0.0], ["2021-03-08", 0.0], ["2021-03-08", 0.0], ["2021-03-11", 0.0], ["2021-03-11", 0.0], ["2021-03-17", 0.0], ["2021-03-17", 0.0], ["2021-03-19", 0.0], ["2021-03-23", 0.0], ["2021-03-24", 0.0], ["2021-03-29", 0.01], ["2021-03-31", 0.01], ["2021-04-01", 0.01], ["2021-04-03", 0.01], ["2021-04-04", 0.01], ["2021-04-05", 0.01], ["2021-04-05", 0.01], ["2021-04-05", 0.01], ["2021-04-05", 0.01], ["2021-04-05", 0.01], ["2021-04-09", 0.01], ["2021-04-14", 0.01], ["2021-04-18", 0.01], ["2021-04-28", 0.01], ["2021-04-29", 0.01], ["2021-05-01", 0.01], ["2021-05-01", 0.01], ["2021-05-02", 0.01], ["2021-05-02", 0.01], ["2021-05-04", 0.01], ["2021-05-05", 0.01], ["2021-05-07", 0.01], ["2021-05-10", 0.01], ["2021-05-12", 0.01], ["2021-05-15", 0.01], ["2021-05-15", 0.01], ["2021-05-16", 0.01], ["2021-05-17", 0.01], ["2021-05-19", 0.01], ["2021-05-21", 0.01], ["2021-05-21", 0.01], ["2021-05-23", 0.01], ["2021-05-24", 0.01], ["2021-05-25", 0.01], ["2021-05-25", 0.015], ["2021-05-26", 0.015], ["2021-05-27", 0.015], ["2021-05-28", 0.015], ["2021-05-29", 0.015], ["2021-05-29", 0.015], ["2021-05-29", 0.015], ["2021-05-29", 0.015], ["2021-06-06", 0.025], ["2021-06-06", 0.025], ["2021-06-07", 0.04], ["2021-06-07", 0.04], ["2021-06-08", 0.04], ["2021-06-08", 0.05], ["2021-06-09", 0.05], ["2021-06-09", 0.05], ["2021-06-10", 0.05], ["2021-06-12", 0.05], ["2021-06-13", 0.05], ["2021-06-14", 0.05], ["2021-06-15", 0.05], ["2021-06-16", 0.05], ["2021-06-17", 0.05], ["2021-06-17", 0.05]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1774 | True |
2024-01-01 | Will the water level at Lake Powell fall below the minimum power pool elevation of 3,490 feet in 2023? | binary |
<p>Amid historic drought and high demand, water levels are so low at Lake Powell, a reservoir in Arizona and Utah, that hydroelectric power generation is threatened (<a href="https://www.reviewjournal.com/local/reduced-lake-powell" target="_blank">Las Vegas Review Journal</a>, <a href="https://www.12news.com/article/news/local/water-wars/lake-powell-power-plant-could-stop-running-by-july/75-6c0f5741-f86b-41fa-92e3-90c63b900a4c" target="_blank">12News</a>). The minimum power pool elevation, the minimum level of the lake necessary to generate electricity, is 3,490 feet (<a href="https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/riverops/crmms-2year-projections.html" target="_blank">US Bureau of Reclamation - 2-Year Probabilistic Projections</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the US Bureau of Reclamation (<a href="https://www.usbr.gov/rsvrWater/HistoricalApp.html" target="_blank">US Bureau of Reclamation - Upper Colorado Region Historic Data</a>). Select "Reservoir" under "Water Operations: Historic Data," change "SELECT SITE" to "LAKE POWELL," select the range of data you want, and check only "Elevation (feet)" on the left, "Data Table" on the right, and click "Submit." On 1 December 2022, the elevation of Lake Powell was 3527.89 feet.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2024-01-01 | gjopen | ["https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/hydrodata/reservoir_data/919/dashboard.html#power_release_volume/", "https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/30/us/colorado-river-lake-mead-drought-2023-climate/index.html", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/lake-powell-water-level-projections-revealed-in-report/ar-AA16yVZl", "https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1", "https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/wcc/home/quicklinks/states/colorado", "https://insideclimatenews.org/news/17022023/lake-powell-glen-canyon-dam-colorado-river-low/", "https://www.sltrib.com/news/environment/2022/09/16/flaming-gorge-falls-drought-felt/", "https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/cs/fgd.html", "https://dashboard.waterdata.usgs.gov/app/nwd/en/?aoi=default", "https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/riverops/crmms-2year-projections.html", "https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/rh850image", "https://www.sltrib.com/news/environment/2022/12/26/nevada-calls-utah-upper-colorado/", "https://www.abc4.com/news/local-news/bureau-of-reclamation-to-hold-back-water-in-lake-powell/", "https://www.eenews.net/articles/scant-progress-on-colorado-river-cuts-as-crisis-deepens/", "https://www.reproductiveaccess.org/2020/09/history-of-mifepristone/", "https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/16/us/colorado-river-water-lake-powell-flaming-gorge-climate/index.html", "https://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/lmap/lmap.php", "https://us.cnn.com/2023/01/04/us/california-storm-flooding-wednesday-drought-climate/index.html", "https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/wg/fg/fgcurrnt.html", "https://lakepowell.water-data.com/", "https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/riverops/24ms-projections.html", "https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghaz/gth_full.png", "https://www.newsweek.com/lake-powell-water-levels-1799186", "https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/", "https://graphs.water-data.com/lakepowell/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2022-12-23 | 0.0 | [["2022-12-23", 0.7], ["2022-12-23", 0.35], ["2022-12-23", 0.3567], ["2022-12-23", 0.3425], ["2022-12-24", 0.282], ["2022-12-24", 0.2517], ["2022-12-24", 0.23], ["2022-12-24", 0.3013], ["2022-12-24", 0.3013], ["2022-12-24", 0.2975], ["2022-12-24", 0.2678], ["2022-12-24", 0.241], ["2022-12-24", 0.241], ["2022-12-24", 0.2264], ["2022-12-24", 0.2245], ["2022-12-24", 0.2058], ["2022-12-24", 0.2015], ["2022-12-24", 0.1907], ["2022-12-24", 0.1907], ["2022-12-24", 0.1914], ["2022-12-24", 0.1853], ["2022-12-25", 0.1738], ["2022-12-25", 0.1619], ["2022-12-25", 0.1612], ["2022-12-26", 0.1578], ["2022-12-26", 0.1578], ["2022-12-26", 0.1732], ["2022-12-26", 0.1416], ["2022-12-26", 0.147], ["2022-12-26", 0.1557], ["2022-12-26", 0.1486], ["2022-12-27", 0.1376], ["2022-12-27", 0.144], ["2022-12-27", 0.1816], ["2022-12-27", 0.2055], ["2022-12-27", 0.2338], ["2022-12-27", 0.2863], ["2022-12-28", 0.2973], ["2022-12-28", 0.3114], ["2022-12-28", 0.3307], ["2022-12-28", 0.3206], ["2022-12-29", 0.3065], ["2022-12-29", 0.2867], ["2022-12-29", 0.2708], ["2022-12-29", 0.3], ["2022-12-29", 0.3769], ["2022-12-30", 0.4323], ["2022-12-30", 0.435], ["2022-12-30", 0.435], ["2022-12-30", 0.435], ["2022-12-30", 0.4421], ["2022-12-30", 0.4079], ["2022-12-30", 0.4093], ["2022-12-31", 0.35], ["2023-01-01", 0.3529], ["2023-01-01", 0.315], ["2023-01-01", 0.31], ["2023-01-02", 0.3107], ["2023-01-02", 0.2967], ["2023-01-02", 0.2913], ["2023-01-02", 0.286], ["2023-01-03", 0.256], ["2023-01-03", 0.2806], ["2023-01-04", 0.2806], ["2023-01-05", 0.2438], ["2023-01-07", 0.2588], ["2023-01-08", 0.2581], ["2023-01-09", 0.2331], ["2023-01-10", 0.2331], ["2023-01-10", 0.2275], ["2023-01-11", 0.2281], ["2023-01-12", 0.2363], ["2023-01-14", 0.1969], ["2023-01-18", 0.1975], ["2023-01-19", 0.1975], ["2023-01-20", 0.1888], ["2023-01-20", 0.1876], ["2023-01-20", 0.1776], ["2023-01-21", 0.1776], ["2023-01-22", 0.1694], ["2023-01-23", 0.1671], ["2023-01-23", 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0.0425], ["2023-12-03", 0.0425], ["2023-12-03", 0.0746], ["2023-12-03", 0.0746], ["2023-12-05", 0.0746], ["2023-12-07", 0.0742], ["2023-12-12", 0.0742], ["2023-12-12", 0.0742], ["2023-12-15", 0.0742], ["2023-12-15", 0.0742], ["2023-12-17", 0.0738], ["2023-12-19", 0.0738], ["2023-12-25", 0.0817], ["2023-12-25", 0.0817], ["2023-12-26", 0.0483], ["2023-12-26", 0.0483], ["2023-12-27", 0.0483], ["2023-12-29", 0.0464], ["2023-12-31", 0.0464], ["2024-01-01", 0.0464]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2680 | True |
2020-12-15 | Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China before 15 December 2020? | binary |
<p>A landslide victory by President Tsai Ing-wen in January 2020 and Taiwan's continued military build-up keep eyes focused on the region for potential conflict (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-security/china-rattles-sabres-as-world-battles-coronavirus-pandemic-idUSKBN2230GC" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2020/04/17/2003734779" target="_blank">Taipei Times</a>, <a href="https://www.janes.com/article/95913/taiwan-preparing-to-take-delivery-of-abrams-mbts-from-the-united-states" target="_blank">Jane's</a>, <a href="https://news.usni.org/2019/09/12/taiwan-wants-updated-submarine-force" target="_blank">UNSI News</a>). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>
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2023-01-01 | Before 1 January 2023, will the presidents of Russia and Ukraine meet in person? | binary |
<p>As Russia's war in Ukraine continues, Ukrainian President Zelensky has floated the idea of meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in person (<a href="https://www.newsweek.com/russia-state-tv-peace-talks-ukraine-war-conflict-retreat-counter-offensive-1741956" target="_blank">Newsweek</a>, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-06-01/kremlin-says-talks-with-zelenskiy-possible-but-negotiations-stalled" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/jun/07/russia-ukraine-war-latest-sievierodonetsk-sees-fierce-street-fighting-zelenskiy-says-as-peace-talks-at-level-zero-live?page=with:block-629fd3b78f081aa930465153#block-629fd3b78f081aa930465153" target="_blank">Guardian</a>). The meeting must be face-to-face but can occur in any venue and does not need to be bilateral to count. An acting president under the constitution of the relevant country would count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-01-01 | gjopen | ["https://t.me/RIAKremlinpool/7568", "https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-alexei-navalny-government-and-politics-95c5d0a5a9704535ece7100d5c852ff5", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=du2DjJEtc0k", "https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-russia-war-latest-news-putin-zelenskyy-peace-talks-nato-live-updates-12541713?", "https://theconversation.com/is-this-the-beginning-of-the-end-for-vladimir-putin-191058", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-says-putin-zelenskiy-meeting-only-possible-once-document-is-agreed-2022-04-05/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1514489", "https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/ukraines-zelensky-rules-out-talks-with-putin-dismisses-musk-intervention-2904881", "https://www.jpost.com/international/article-717402", "https://news.sky.com/story/putin-could-use-peace-talks-as-excuse-to-rearm-and-recruit-troops-foreign-secretary-james-cleverly-warns-12766029", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-use-of-iranian-kamikaze-drones-creates-new-dangers-for-ukrainian-troops-11663415140", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/nov/03/russia-ukraine-war-live-news-blinken-hails-turkish-help-as-grain-export-deal-resumes", "https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-17", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/zelenski-s-decree-buries-the-possibility-of-negotiating-with-russia/ar-AA12zMw0?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=32775e761daa4992aae9d12033a90212", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1524605", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/opec-agrees-to-biggest-oil-production-cut-since-start-of-pandemic-11664978144?mod=djem10point", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/02/us/politics/biden-putin-ukraine-talks.html", "https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-10-04-22/h_9700d316081bb62a120d3e042fa00d25", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Debaltseve", "https://themuslimtimes.info/2022/08/28/what-are-the-chances-of-a-meeting-between-putin-and-zelensky/", "https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-28"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2022-09-16 | 0.0 | [["2022-09-16", 0.015], ["2022-09-16", 0.01], ["2022-09-16", 0.0083], ["2022-09-16", 0.0063], ["2022-09-16", 0.029], ["2022-09-16", 0.0367], ["2022-09-16", 0.0329], ["2022-09-16", 0.03], ["2022-09-16", 0.0272], ["2022-09-16", 0.026], ["2022-09-17", 0.0248], ["2022-09-17", 0.023], ["2022-09-17", 0.0216], ["2022-09-17", 0.0219], ["2022-09-17", 0.0203], ["2022-09-17", 0.019], ["2022-09-17", 0.0182], ["2022-09-17", 0.0412], ["2022-09-17", 0.0389], ["2022-09-17", 0.0553], ["2022-09-17", 0.0553], ["2022-09-18", 0.0526], ["2022-09-18", 0.0514], ["2022-09-18", 0.0514], ["2022-09-18", 0.0515], ["2022-09-18", 0.0515], ["2022-09-18", 0.0525], ["2022-09-19", 0.0504], ["2022-09-19", 0.0512], ["2022-09-19", 0.0531], ["2022-09-19", 0.0543], ["2022-09-19", 0.0541], ["2022-09-19", 0.0538], ["2022-09-19", 0.0533], ["2022-09-19", 0.0584], ["2022-09-19", 0.0704], ["2022-09-19", 0.0802], ["2022-09-20", 0.0963], ["2022-09-20", 0.0977], ["2022-09-20", 0.1081], ["2022-09-20", 0.094], ["2022-09-20", 0.0926], ["2022-09-20", 0.1053], ["2022-09-20", 0.0891], ["2022-09-20", 0.0911], ["2022-09-20", 0.0872], ["2022-09-20", 0.085], ["2022-09-20", 0.0831], ["2022-09-21", 0.08], ["2022-09-21", 0.0812], ["2022-09-21", 0.0783], ["2022-09-21", 0.0768], ["2022-09-21", 0.0782], ["2022-09-21", 0.0753], ["2022-09-21", 0.0771], ["2022-09-22", 0.0752], ["2022-09-22", 0.0741], ["2022-09-22", 0.0726], ["2022-09-22", 0.0746], ["2022-09-22", 0.0777], ["2022-09-22", 0.0773], ["2022-09-22", 0.0789], ["2022-09-22", 0.0796], ["2022-09-23", 0.0529], ["2022-09-23", 0.05], ["2022-09-23", 0.0467], ["2022-09-23", 0.0486], ["2022-09-24", 0.0477], ["2022-09-24", 0.0366], ["2022-09-24", 0.0357], ["2022-09-25", 0.0347], ["2022-09-25", 0.0365], ["2022-09-26", 0.0387], ["2022-09-26", 0.0409], ["2022-09-26", 0.0585], ["2022-09-26", 0.0715], ["2022-09-26", 0.0713], ["2022-09-26", 0.0707], ["2022-09-26", 0.0694], ["2022-09-27", 0.0704], ["2022-09-27", 0.0726], ["2022-09-27", 0.0731], ["2022-09-27", 0.0792], ["2022-09-28", 0.08], ["2022-09-28", 0.0806], ["2022-09-28", 0.0812], ["2022-09-28", 0.0822], ["2022-09-28", 0.08], ["2022-09-28", 0.0786], ["2022-09-29", 0.079], ["2022-09-29", 0.0792], ["2022-09-29", 0.0784], ["2022-09-30", 0.0786], ["2022-09-30", 0.0771], ["2022-09-30", 0.0781], ["2022-10-01", 0.0773], ["2022-10-02", 0.0808], ["2022-10-02", 0.0792], ["2022-10-02", 0.0772], ["2022-10-03", 0.077], ["2022-10-03", 0.0756], ["2022-10-03", 0.0754], ["2022-10-04", 0.0724], ["2022-10-04", 0.0724], ["2022-10-04", 0.0717], ["2022-10-05", 0.0702], ["2022-10-05", 0.0784], ["2022-10-05", 0.0787], ["2022-10-05", 0.0865], ["2022-10-06", 0.0867], ["2022-10-06", 0.0847], ["2022-10-07", 0.0845], ["2022-10-07", 0.0836], ["2022-10-07", 0.083], ["2022-10-07", 0.0832], ["2022-10-07", 0.0834], ["2022-10-08", 0.0825], ["2022-10-08", 0.0811], ["2022-10-09", 0.0672], ["2022-10-10", 0.0665], ["2022-10-10", 0.0675], ["2022-10-10", 0.0707], ["2022-10-10", 0.0697], ["2022-10-10", 0.0691], ["2022-10-11", 0.0664], ["2022-10-11", 0.0645], ["2022-10-11", 0.0641], ["2022-10-12", 0.0634], ["2022-10-13", 0.0608], ["2022-10-13", 0.0593], ["2022-10-13", 0.0592], ["2022-10-14", 0.0568], ["2022-10-14", 0.0568], ["2022-10-15", 0.0568], ["2022-10-15", 0.0567], ["2022-10-15", 0.0565], ["2022-10-16", 0.0556], ["2022-10-16", 0.0546], ["2022-10-16", 0.07], ["2022-10-17", 0.0653], ["2022-10-18", 0.0653], ["2022-10-18", 0.065], ["2022-10-18", 0.0652], ["2022-10-19", 0.0621], ["2022-10-19", 0.0621], ["2022-10-20", 0.0616], ["2022-10-20", 0.0614], ["2022-10-20", 0.0613], ["2022-10-21", 0.0611], ["2022-10-21", 0.0768], ["2022-10-21", 0.0783], ["2022-10-22", 0.0783], ["2022-10-22", 0.0797], ["2022-10-22", 0.0792], ["2022-10-23", 0.0792], ["2022-10-23", 0.0792], ["2022-10-24", 0.0636], ["2022-10-25", 0.063], ["2022-10-25", 0.063], ["2022-10-26", 0.0628], ["2022-10-26", 0.0635], ["2022-10-27", 0.0565], ["2022-10-28", 0.0563], ["2022-10-28", 0.0557], ["2022-10-29", 0.0557], ["2022-10-29", 0.0573], ["2022-10-30", 0.0576], ["2022-10-30", 0.0574], ["2022-10-31", 0.0574], ["2022-10-31", 0.0596], ["2022-11-01", 0.0593], ["2022-11-01", 0.0591], ["2022-11-02", 0.0594], ["2022-11-02", 0.0536], ["2022-11-03", 0.053], ["2022-11-03", 0.0522], ["2022-11-03", 0.0516], ["2022-11-03", 0.0516], ["2022-11-04", 0.0513], ["2022-11-04", 0.0515], ["2022-11-04", 0.0515], ["2022-11-04", 0.0515], ["2022-11-05", 0.0509], ["2022-11-06", 0.0509], ["2022-11-06", 0.0531], ["2022-11-07", 0.0524], ["2022-11-07", 0.0516], ["2022-11-08", 0.0516], ["2022-11-08", 0.0526], ["2022-11-08", 0.0529], ["2022-11-09", 0.0483], ["2022-11-10", 0.0517], ["2022-11-10", 0.0517], ["2022-11-10", 0.0557], ["2022-11-11", 0.0559], ["2022-11-11", 0.0559], ["2022-11-12", 0.0559], ["2022-11-12", 0.0559], ["2022-11-13", 0.0563], ["2022-11-14", 0.0569], ["2022-11-14", 0.0561], ["2022-11-14", 0.0561], ["2022-11-15", 0.0563], ["2022-11-15", 0.0569], ["2022-11-16", 0.0567], ["2022-11-16", 0.0576], ["2022-11-17", 0.0578], ["2022-11-17", 0.0576], ["2022-11-18", 0.0576], ["2022-11-18", 0.0576], ["2022-11-19", 0.0574], ["2022-11-20", 0.0573], ["2022-11-20", 0.0573], ["2022-11-21", 0.057], ["2022-11-21", 0.0566], ["2022-11-22", 0.0532], ["2022-11-22", 0.0528], ["2022-11-22", 0.0411], ["2022-11-23", 0.0411], ["2022-11-24", 0.0404], ["2022-11-24", 0.0403], ["2022-11-24", 0.0392], ["2022-11-24", 0.0388], ["2022-11-24", 0.0383], ["2022-11-25", 0.0381], ["2022-11-26", 0.0381], ["2022-11-26", 0.038], ["2022-11-27", 0.0375], ["2022-11-27", 0.0376], ["2022-11-27", 0.0374], ["2022-11-28", 0.0371], ["2022-11-28", 0.0371], ["2022-11-28", 0.0367], ["2022-11-28", 0.0357], ["2022-11-29", 0.0357], ["2022-11-29", 0.0354], ["2022-11-30", 0.0347], ["2022-11-30", 0.0344], ["2022-11-30", 0.0344], ["2022-11-30", 0.0342], ["2022-11-30", 0.0344], ["2022-12-01", 0.0344], ["2022-12-01", 0.0339], ["2022-12-02", 0.0339], ["2022-12-02", 0.0339], ["2022-12-02", 0.0317], ["2022-12-03", 0.0312], ["2022-12-03", 0.0308], ["2022-12-04", 0.0308], ["2022-12-04", 0.0303], ["2022-12-05", 0.0296], ["2022-12-06", 0.0276], ["2022-12-06", 0.0268], ["2022-12-06", 0.0267], ["2022-12-06", 0.0249], ["2022-12-07", 0.0244], ["2022-12-08", 0.0242], ["2022-12-08", 0.0278], ["2022-12-09", 0.0278], ["2022-12-09", 0.0278], ["2022-12-09", 0.0278], ["2022-12-10", 0.0273], ["2022-12-10", 0.0273], ["2022-12-12", 0.0271], ["2022-12-12", 0.0271], ["2022-12-12", 0.0291], ["2022-12-13", 0.0276], ["2022-12-13", 0.0272], ["2022-12-14", 0.0272], ["2022-12-14", 0.027], ["2022-12-15", 0.027], ["2022-12-15", 0.027], ["2022-12-15", 0.0267], ["2022-12-16", 0.0266], ["2022-12-16", 0.0261], ["2022-12-17", 0.0256], ["2022-12-17", 0.0255], ["2022-12-18", 0.0243], ["2022-12-18", 0.0243], ["2022-12-19", 0.0205], ["2022-12-19", 0.0199], ["2022-12-19", 0.0196], ["2022-12-19", 0.0195], ["2022-12-19", 0.0194], ["2022-12-20", 0.0181], ["2022-12-20", 0.0181], ["2022-12-21", 0.0181], ["2022-12-21", 0.0175], ["2022-12-22", 0.0173], ["2022-12-22", 0.0172], ["2022-12-23", 0.0172], ["2022-12-24", 0.0172], ["2022-12-24", 0.0172], ["2022-12-24", 0.0172], ["2022-12-24", 0.0172], ["2022-12-25", 0.0171], ["2022-12-25", 0.0163], ["2022-12-26", 0.0156], ["2022-12-26", 0.0155], ["2022-12-26", 0.0154], ["2022-12-27", 0.0154], ["2022-12-27", 0.0154], ["2022-12-27", 0.0153], ["2022-12-27", 0.0137], ["2022-12-28", 0.0135], ["2022-12-28", 0.0134], ["2022-12-28", 0.0132], ["2022-12-28", 0.0132], ["2022-12-28", 0.0132], ["2022-12-29", 0.0132], ["2022-12-29", 0.0132], ["2022-12-29", 0.013], ["2022-12-30", 0.0128], ["2022-12-30", 0.0127], ["2022-12-30", 0.0127], ["2022-12-31", 0.0125], ["2022-12-31", 0.0109], ["2022-12-31", 0.0107], ["2023-01-01", 0.0093], ["2023-01-01", 0.0093], ["2023-01-01", 0.0093]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2545 | True |
2022-10-01 | As of 30 September 2022, will the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) rank higher than all other German parties in polling of national parliament voting intention, according to Politico? | binary |
<p>The SPD-led German government faces a number of challenges in 2022, including lifting COVID restrictions, the war in Ukraine, and various domestic matters (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/a-new-coalition-government-will-try-to-find-its-feet-in-germany" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/germany-lifts-most-covid-19-restrictions-after-difficult-compromise/a-61174654" target="_blank">Deutsche Welle</a>, <a href="https://www.thelocal.de/20220223/explained-when-will-germany-raise-the-minimum-wage/" target="_blank">The Local</a>). The outcome will be determined using data for 30 September 2022 as provided in Politico's "Poll of Polls" page for Germany no earlier than 5 October 2022 (<a href="https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/" target="_blank">Politico Poll of Polls - Germany</a>, select "1 Year" and "Kalman Smooth").</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2022-10-05 | gjopen | ["https://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/bilder/uvotealbum-1405.html", "http://www.deepl.com/Translator", "https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/olaf-scholz-and-ukraine-why-has-germany-been-so-slow-to-deliver-weapons-a-7cc8397b-2448-49e6-afa5-00311c8fedce", "https://www.tagesschau.de/thema/saarland/", "https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anne_Spiegel#Rolle_bei_der_Flutkatastrophe_im_Ahrtal", "https://www.br.de/nachrichten/bayern/firma-von-markus-soeders-frau-wollte-offenbar-corona-masken-verkaufen", "https://www.infratest-dimap.de/umfragen-analysen/bundesweit/sonntagsfrage/#handleTableView", "https://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/bilder/uvotealbum-1415.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Lower_Saxony_state_election", "https://www.dw.com/en/germany-left-party-leader-hennig-wellsow-steps-down/a-61523508", "https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany", "https://amp.dw.com/en/germanys-ruling-spd-faces-the-ruins-of-its-russia-policy/a-61206332", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ursula_Heinen-Esser", "https://amp.dw.com/en/germanys-election-year-2022-whats-in-store-for-german-politics/a-60319214", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fuWq4RZnc6U", "https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/innenpolitik/saarland-wahl-131.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_North_Rhine-Westphalia_state_election#Opinion_polling", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Schleswig-Holstein_state_election#Opinion_polling", "https://www.sol.de/saarland/spd-gewinnt-saarland-wahl-deutlich-historische-schlappe-fuer-cdu,313403.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Saarland_state_election#Opinion_polling", "https://www.forschungsgruppe.de/Aktuelles/Politbarometer/", "https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ursula_Heinen-Esser#Kontroverse_um_Mallorca-Aufenthalt"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2022-03-25 | 0.0 | [["2022-03-25", 0.35], ["2022-03-25", 0.18], 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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2327 | True |
2023-01-01 | Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Afghanistan in 2022? | binary |
<p>War and drought have left millions in Afghanistan facing potential famine (<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/15/famine-new-battleground-for-displaced-afghans-a-photo-essay" target="_blank">Guardian</a>, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/famine-looms-afghanistan-leaving-millions-hungry-rcna10400" target="_blank">NBC News</a>, <a href="https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/ipc-mapping-tool/" target="_blank">IPC</a>). For general information on how famines are declared, see: http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean. The reporting of famine conditions without a UN famine declaration would not count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-01-01 | gjopen | ["https://www.wfp.org/publications/hunger-hotspots-fao-wfp-early-warnings-acute-food-insecurity-june-september-2022", "https://www.fao.org/3/cc2134en/cc2134en.pdf", "https://latestnews.fresherslive.com/articles/severe-drought-displaces-over-11-mn-somalis-un-1065536", "https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/anti-government-protests-spread-iran-after-flour-based-food-staples-jump-300", "https://www.wfp.org/stories/south-sudan-millions-face-starvation-lack-funding-reduces-food-rations", "https://summit.news/2022/05/20/top-putin-aide-predicts-global-famine-by-the-end-of-this-year/", "https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/details-map/en/c/1155595/?iso3=AFG", "https://time.com/6162598/ukraine-war-food-shortage/", "https://thehill.com/policy/international/600298-us-russia-china-pakistan-to-meet-over-afghanistan", "https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/international/asia-2022-2023-winter-outlook/1271768", "https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-africa-europe-united-nations-c0aa09215a99cb625c57fcb40f7df8bf", "https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/events/events-details/en/c/1155692/", "https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/04/1116852", "https://fews.net/fews-data/333?tid=2&field_data_portal_date_start%5Bvalue%5D%5Byear%5D=&field_data_portal_date_start%5Bvalue%5D%5Bmonth%5D=&field_data_portal_date_end%5Bvalue%5D%5Byear%5D=&field_data_portal_date_end%5Bvalue%5D%5Bmonth%5D=&page=1", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/31/ukraines-harvest-could-be-halved-this-year-due-to-russian-invasion-warns-zelenskiy", "https://reliefweb.int/report/afghanistan/wfp-afghanistan-situation-report-22-april-2022", "https://pakobserver.net/un-warns-6-million-afghans-on-brink-of-famine/", "https://fews.net/central-asia/afghanistan", "https://reliefweb.int/report/afghanistan/afghanistan-ipc-acute-food-insecurity-analysis-march-november-2022-issued-may", "https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/09/1127291", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/25/taliban-say-they-will-not-interfere-with-afghanistan-earthquake-aid", "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/famine-may-have-been-averted-afghan-economic-crisis-deepens-un-envoy-2022-03-02/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1396815", "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-asset-freezes-worsen-afghan-womens-suffering-un-experts-2022-04-25/", "https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/taliban-signs-breakthrough-deal-discounted-russian-oil-gas-wheat"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2022-01-28 | 0.0 | [["2022-01-28", 0.55], ["2022-01-28", 0.505], ["2022-01-29", 0.562], ["2022-01-29", 0.5457142857142857], ["2022-01-29", 0.49], ["2022-01-29", 0.371], ["2022-01-29", 0.355], ["2022-01-29", 0.401], ["2022-01-29", 0.405], ["2022-01-29", 0.45], 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["2022-04-07", 0.5653191489361702], ["2022-04-08", 0.5534042553191489], ["2022-04-09", 0.5385106382978724], ["2022-04-11", 0.5357446808510639], ["2022-04-13", 0.5353191489361702], ["2022-04-14", 0.5351063829787234], ["2022-04-16", 0.5153191489361703], ["2022-04-17", 0.5151063829787234], ["2022-04-18", 0.5134042553191489], ["2022-04-20", 0.5120833333333333], ["2022-04-22", 0.49375], ["2022-04-24", 0.49020833333333336], ["2022-04-24", 0.4897916666666667], ["2022-04-26", 0.49166666666666664], ["2022-05-01", 0.49354166666666666], ["2022-05-06", 0.493125], ["2022-05-08", 0.4925], ["2022-05-09", 0.4891666666666667], ["2022-05-10", 0.4847916666666667], ["2022-05-12", 0.4845833333333333], ["2022-05-13", 0.4845833333333333], ["2022-05-14", 0.4839583333333333], ["2022-05-17", 0.48354166666666665], ["2022-05-18", 0.47708333333333336], ["2022-05-20", 0.4947916666666667], ["2022-05-21", 0.494375], ["2022-05-22", 0.48770833333333335], ["2022-05-26", 0.4875], ["2022-05-30", 0.5060416666666666], ["2022-06-01", 0.5025], ["2022-06-03", 0.5008333333333334], ["2022-06-05", 0.49833333333333335], ["2022-06-06", 0.49875], ["2022-06-09", 0.49333333333333335], ["2022-06-11", 0.49125], ["2022-06-12", 0.49041666666666667], ["2022-06-14", 0.49333333333333335], ["2022-06-15", 0.49395833333333333], ["2022-06-16", 0.493125], ["2022-06-25", 0.5045833333333334], ["2022-06-26", 0.508125], ["2022-06-30", 0.5133333333333333], ["2022-06-30", 0.5177083333333333], ["2022-07-05", 0.520625], ["2022-07-06", 0.5104166666666666], ["2022-07-07", 0.5110416666666666], ["2022-07-09", 0.5114583333333333], ["2022-07-11", 0.511875], ["2022-07-12", 0.5108333333333334], ["2022-07-13", 0.51125], ["2022-07-15", 0.5116666666666667], ["2022-07-17", 0.5120833333333333], ["2022-07-19", 0.5125], ["2022-07-20", 0.51375], ["2022-07-21", 0.5127083333333333], ["2022-07-23", 0.5095918367346939], ["2022-07-24", 0.4989795918367347], ["2022-07-25", 0.4940816326530612], ["2022-07-25", 0.49448979591836734], ["2022-07-30", 0.4936734693877551], ["2022-07-31", 0.49387755102040815], ["2022-08-01", 0.49183673469387756], ["2022-08-02", 0.4826530612244898], ["2022-08-04", 0.4822448979591837], ["2022-08-05", 0.4679591836734694], ["2022-08-07", 0.4542857142857143], ["2022-08-08", 0.4594], ["2022-08-11", 0.4624], ["2022-08-11", 0.4602], ["2022-08-16", 0.4644], ["2022-08-27", 0.4612], ["2022-08-27", 0.46], ["2022-08-27", 0.4584], ["2022-09-03", 0.4576], ["2022-09-05", 0.451], ["2022-09-06", 0.4486], ["2022-09-09", 0.4386], ["2022-09-12", 0.435], ["2022-09-14", 0.4304], ["2022-09-15", 0.4184], ["2022-09-16", 0.4069], ["2022-09-20", 0.4065], ["2022-09-21", 0.3981], ["2022-09-22", 0.3938], ["2022-09-23", 0.3931], ["2022-09-25", 0.3912], ["2022-09-28", 0.3894], ["2022-09-30", 0.3827], ["2022-10-01", 0.3813], ["2022-10-02", 0.3712], ["2022-10-04", 0.3671], ["2022-10-08", 0.3654], ["2022-10-10", 0.3612], ["2022-10-12", 0.361], ["2022-10-14", 0.3621], ["2022-10-15", 0.3612], ["2022-10-18", 0.3606], ["2022-10-18", 0.3627], ["2022-10-21", 0.3733], ["2022-10-22", 0.3725], ["2022-10-23", 0.349], ["2022-10-27", 0.3498], ["2022-10-30", 0.335], ["2022-11-02", 0.3302], ["2022-11-03", 0.33], ["2022-11-05", 0.3283], ["2022-11-08", 0.3279], ["2022-11-09", 0.3244], ["2022-11-12", 0.3212], ["2022-11-13", 0.319], ["2022-11-14", 0.3162], ["2022-11-19", 0.3152], ["2022-11-21", 0.3138], ["2022-11-23", 0.3121], ["2022-11-24", 0.311], ["2022-11-25", 0.31], ["2022-11-25", 0.3096], ["2022-11-27", 0.3079], ["2022-11-30", 0.2875], ["2022-12-01", 0.2867], ["2022-12-02", 0.2852], ["2022-12-04", 0.281], ["2022-12-05", 0.2792], ["2022-12-05", 0.2598], ["2022-12-08", 0.2546], ["2022-12-09", 0.2502], ["2022-12-12", 0.2491], ["2022-12-13", 0.2451], ["2022-12-13", 0.2445], ["2022-12-14", 0.2421], ["2022-12-15", 0.2262], ["2022-12-16", 0.2251], ["2022-12-17", 0.2145], ["2022-12-19", 0.1991], ["2022-12-20", 0.1952], ["2022-12-20", 0.1943], ["2022-12-21", 0.1926], ["2022-12-22", 0.1943], ["2022-12-23", 0.183], ["2022-12-23", 0.1789], ["2022-12-26", 0.1678], ["2022-12-27", 0.1472], ["2022-12-28", 0.1469], ["2022-12-29", 0.1465], ["2022-12-30", 0.1454], ["2022-12-30", 0.1418], ["2023-01-01", 0.1329], ["2023-01-01", 0.1329]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2253 | True |
2022-03-17 | Between 10 March 2022 and 29 April 2022, will the average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the US be higher than 4.15%? | binary |
<p>The outcome will be determined using Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate mortgage average data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (<a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US" target="_blank">FRED</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-03-17 | gjopen | ["https://www.wsj.com/articles/mortgage-rates-top-4-for-the-first-time-since-2019-11647525619", "https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/mortgages/here-are-mortgage-rates-for-mar-17-2022-rates-trend-upward/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2022-03-09 | 1.0 | [["2022-03-15", 1.0], ["2022-03-15", 0.75], ["2022-03-15", 0.5], ["2022-03-15", 0.525], ["2022-03-15", 0.5], ["2022-03-15", 0.455], ["2022-03-15", 0.41], ["2022-03-15", 0.39], ["2022-03-15", 0.4], ["2022-03-15", 0.4], ["2022-03-15", 0.4], ["2022-03-15", 0.4], ["2022-03-15", 0.4], ["2022-03-15", 0.4], ["2022-03-15", 0.4], ["2022-03-16", 0.405], ["2022-03-16", 0.41], ["2022-03-16", 0.405], ["2022-03-16", 0.41], ["2022-03-16", 0.405], ["2022-03-16", 0.41], ["2022-03-16", 0.43], ["2022-03-16", 0.41], ["2022-03-16", 0.43], ["2022-03-16", 0.45], ["2022-03-16", 0.45], ["2022-03-16", 0.45], ["2022-03-16", 0.455], ["2022-03-16", 0.45], ["2022-03-16", 0.45], ["2022-03-16", 0.45], ["2022-03-16", 0.45], ["2022-03-16", 0.45], ["2022-03-16", 0.45], ["2022-03-16", 0.45], ["2022-03-16", 0.45], ["2022-03-16", 0.45], ["2022-03-16", 0.43], ["2022-03-16", 0.45], ["2022-03-16", 0.45], ["2022-03-16", 0.45], ["2022-03-16", 0.45], ["2022-03-16", 0.45], ["2022-03-16", 0.45], ["2022-03-16", 0.45], ["2022-03-16", 0.45], ["2022-03-16", 0.45], ["2022-03-16", 0.45], ["2022-03-16", 0.45], ["2022-03-16", 0.45], ["2022-03-16", 0.45], ["2022-03-16", 0.45], ["2022-03-16", 0.45], ["2022-03-16", 0.45], ["2022-03-16", 0.45], ["2022-03-16", 0.45], ["2022-03-16", 0.455], ["2022-03-16", 0.465], ["2022-03-17", 0.485], ["2022-03-17", 0.485], ["2022-03-17", 0.485], ["2022-03-17", 0.485], ["2022-03-17", 0.5], ["2022-03-17", 0.5], ["2022-03-17", 0.505], ["2022-03-17", 0.5], ["2022-03-17", 0.505], ["2022-03-17", 0.51], ["2022-03-17", 0.51], ["2022-03-17", 0.51], ["2022-03-17", 0.52], ["2022-03-17", 0.53], ["2022-03-17", 0.53], ["2022-03-17", 0.53], ["2022-03-17", 0.53]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2307 | True |
2020-12-31 | Before 1 January 2021, will Cruise Automation launch a commercial ride-hailing service open to the public in the U.S. which uses autonomous vehicles? | binary |
<p><span style="font-size: 14.6667px;">General Motors' subsidiary Cruise Automation had announced intentions to launch a ride-hailing service somewhere in the U.S. in 2019; however, the service was still under development at the beginning of 2020 (<a href="https://gmauthority.com/blog/2018/09/for-a-self-driving-car-ride-share-service-gm-is-keeping-its-options-open/" target="_blank">GMAuthority</a>, <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2020/01/21/gm-cruise-origin-self-driving-ride-hailing-robotaxi/4536725002/" target="_blank">USA Today</a>). While the firm recently received a permit for testing from the state of California, technical and regulatory hurdles remain (<a href="https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/cruise-automation-self-driving-cars-california/" target="_blank">Road Show</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-autonomous-exclusive/exclusive-u-s-talks-with-gm-over-deploying-self-driving-cars-without-steering-wheels-idUSKBN1YO2EI" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://electronics360.globalspec.com/article/14864/self-driving-car-testing-freezes-due-to-covid-19" target="_blank">Electronics 360</a>). A service that operates along a fixed route and/or with backup drivers in the vehicles would not count.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-01-01 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2020-04-02 | 0.0 | [["2020-04-02", 0.1], ["2020-04-02", 0.075], ["2020-04-02", 0.05], ["2020-04-03", 0.05], ["2020-04-03", 0.05], ["2020-04-03", 0.05], ["2020-04-03", 0.05], ["2020-04-03", 0.05], ["2020-04-03", 0.05], ["2020-04-03", 0.05], ["2020-04-03", 0.04], ["2020-04-03", 0.04], ["2020-04-03", 0.05], ["2020-04-03", 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2023-08-01 | Before 1 August 2023, will the Israeli Knesset pass an amendment to the "Basic Law: The Judiciary" amending the composition of the country's Committee for the Selection of Judges? | binary |
<p>Mass protests have erupted across Israel for weeks as the government seeks to amend its quasi-constitutional Basic Law regarding the judiciary to, among other things, give the government more influence on the selection of judges in the country (<a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/uproar-over-israeli-judicial-changes-what-s-it-all-about-/7021504.html" target="_blank">Voice of America</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-65086871" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/despite-pause-government-files-contentious-judicial-selection-bill-for-final-votes/" target="_blank">Times of Israel</a>, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/03/27/1166200532/israel-civil-war-netanyahu-court-control" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://www.gov.il/he/Departments/General/judicial_nominating_committee" target="_blank">The Committee for the Selection of Judges</a> [in Hebrew], <a href="https://main.knesset.gov.il/Activity/Legislation/Laws/Pages/LawBill.aspx?t=lawsuggestionssearch&lawitemid=2201200" target="_blank">Draft Basic Law: The Judiciary (Amendment No. 3)</a> [in Hebrew]). The amendment would be deemed passed upon its passage on the third reading (<a href="https://m.knesset.gov.il/en/activity/pages/legislation.aspx" target="_blank">Knesset - Legislation</a>). Subsequent action by the Israeli judiciary, including the Supreme Court, would be immaterial (<a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/would-the-high-court-dare-strike-down-the-coalitions-judicial-appointments-law/" target="_blank">Times of Israel</a>). The abolition of the committee would count, but a renaming alone would not count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-08-01 | gjopen | ["https://globalnews.ca/news/9851722/israels-parliament-starts-vote-on-judicial-overhaul-as-protests-erupt/", "https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-752719", "https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20230618-israel-s-netanyahu-says-divisive-judicial-reforms-will-move-ahead-this-week", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/9/israeli-protests-reignite-as-netanyahu-pushes-new-justice-bill", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-says-judicial-overhaul-to-return-to-agenda-now-that-budget-has-passed/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israels-netanyahu-seeks-active-steps-judicial-overhaul-this-week-2023-06-18/", "https://www.axios.com/2023/07/24/judicial-overhaul-netanyahu-bill-votes-knesset-protests", "https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-753179", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judicial_Selection_Committee_(Israel", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/knesset-restarts-judicial-overhaul-with-bill-to-broadly-outlaw-reasonableness-test/", "https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-744012", "https://apnews.com/article/israel-netanyahu-legal-overhaul-df97e0fe5ef6cb9e01efc1d0fd8c2a17", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israeli_judicial_reform", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/winning-bar-contest-becher-spoils-coalition-hope-of-controlling-judge-picks-for-now/", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/hours-after-losing-battle-for-bar-association-likud-moves-to-void-it-of-power/", "https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-752609"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2023-03-30 | 0.0 | [["2023-03-31", 1.0], ["2023-03-31", 0.545], ["2023-03-31", 0.5967], ["2023-03-31", 0.53], ["2023-03-31", 0.494], ["2023-03-31", 0.495], ["2023-03-31", 0.4729], ["2023-04-01", 0.4763], ["2023-04-01", 0.4422], ["2023-04-01", 0.398], ["2023-04-01", 0.3936], ["2023-04-01", 0.4442], 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["2023-07-26", 0.1306], ["2023-07-26", 0.13], ["2023-07-27", 0.1269], ["2023-07-27", 0.1269], ["2023-07-28", 0.1225], ["2023-07-28", 0.1169], ["2023-07-28", 0.1044], ["2023-07-28", 0.1044], ["2023-07-28", 0.1013], ["2023-07-29", 0.0825], ["2023-07-29", 0.0819], ["2023-07-29", 0.0819], ["2023-07-29", 0.0806], ["2023-07-31", 0.08], ["2023-07-31", 0.0794], ["2023-07-31", 0.0794], ["2023-08-01", 0.0794]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2817 | True |
2021-09-01 | Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021? | binary |
<p>The economic impacts of COVID-19 have seen an increase in loan default rates, but when the default cycle will peak remains unknown (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/corporate-defaults-will-be-surprisingly-few" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/blog/2021-leveraged-loan-survey-defaults-edge-higher-credit-quality-a-concern" target="_blank">S&P Global</a>). The outcome will be determined using the U.S. leveraged loan default rates published by S&P Global Market Intelligence at https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/leveraged-loan. Under the "Leveraged Loan Trends" section, click on the "Default Rate" tab to show the "Leveraged loan default rates - US (principal amount)" graph. The rate reported for 30 September 2020 was 4.17.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-09-01 | gjopen | ["https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/2021-us-loan-default-rate-in-line-with-2020-hy-trending-lower-13-01-2021", "https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/pages/toc-primer/lcd-primer#sec24", "https://news.bloomberglaw.com/bankruptcy-law/u-s-leveraged-loan-default-rate-expected-to-fall-further", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1216689", "https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://m.moodys.com/creditfoundations/Global-Leveraged-Finance-Market-View-05E003&ved=2ahUKEwjmzqC-5-juAhUNFjQIHd7dBLUQFjAOegQIDBAB&usg=AOvVaw3FkfaVTvrinJyNIL-I6j_J", "https://pages.marketintelligence.spglobal.com/LCD-2021-Loan-Market-Survey-Infographic-Pr2.html", "https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/210303-default-transition-and-recovery-the-s-p-lsta-leveraged-loan-index-default-rate-could-remain-elevated-befor-11858799", "https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/blog/2021-leveraged-loan-survey-defaults-edge-higher-credit-quality-a-concern", "https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-us-leveraged-loan-default-insight-2021-default-forecast-lowered-to-4-5-loans-of-concern-total-falls-ninth-straight-month-28-01-2021&ved=2ahUKEwjmzqC-5-juAhUNFjQIHd7dBLUQFjACegQIExAB&usg=AOvVaw289fwQB1ob7VCj6V9uHN8u", "https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-us-leveraged-loan-default-insight-default-activity-slows-in-november-loans-of-concern-total-declines-20-11-2020", "https://www.google.de/search?q=nyse%3AD&oq=nyse%3AD", "https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/leveraged-loan", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Default_%28finance%29#Types_of_default", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1119765", "https://www.ft.com/content/4be91bfb-55ce-4478-bf46-f4d7e93e069b", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2021/01/19/yellen-confirmation-hearing-stimulus/", "https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-us-leveraged-loan-default-insight-july-ttm-default-rate-anticipated-at-1-5-lowest-since-september-2019-21-07-2021", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1135913", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE", "https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/01/will-we-get-a-third-round-of-stimulus-checks-from-biden.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1147691", "https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-us-leveraged-loan-default-insight-ttm-default-rate-falls-to-2-4-ytd-pace-tracking-below-1-20-05-2021", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1893-when-will-amc-entertainment-holdings-inc-amc-the-parent-company-of-amc-theatres-file-for-bankruptcy", "https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/01/whats-in-joe-bidens-stimulus-package-plan.html", "https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/eyeing-relief-us-leveraged-loan-issuers-continue-to-amend-covenants-59460304"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2021-01-07 | 0.0 | [["2021-01-08", 1.0], ["2021-01-08", 0.75], ["2021-01-08", 0.5], ["2021-01-08", 0.745], ["2021-01-08", 0.95], ["2021-01-08", 0.9], ["2021-01-08", 0.96], ["2021-01-08", 0.95], ["2021-01-08", 0.85], ["2021-01-08", 0.95], ["2021-01-08", 0.85], ["2021-01-09", 0.75], ["2021-01-09", 0.85], ["2021-01-09", 0.915], ["2021-01-09", 0.95], ["2021-01-09", 0.95], ["2021-01-09", 0.95], ["2021-01-10", 0.915], ["2021-01-10", 0.88], ["2021-01-10", 0.815], ["2021-01-10", 0.88], ["2021-01-10", 0.9], ["2021-01-10", 0.91], ["2021-01-10", 0.9], ["2021-01-10", 0.9], ["2021-01-10", 0.89], ["2021-01-10", 0.9], ["2021-01-10", 0.89], ["2021-01-10", 0.88], ["2021-01-10", 0.815], ["2021-01-10", 0.89], ["2021-01-11", 0.88], ["2021-01-11", 0.815], ["2021-01-11", 0.75], ["2021-01-11", 0.75], 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["2021-08-09", 0.0], ["2021-08-09", 0.0], ["2021-08-10", 0.0], ["2021-08-12", 0.0], ["2021-08-14", 0.0], ["2021-08-15", 0.0], ["2021-08-15", 0.0], ["2021-08-15", 0.0], ["2021-08-17", 0.0], ["2021-08-21", 0.0], ["2021-08-22", 0.0], ["2021-08-23", 0.0], ["2021-08-25", 0.0], ["2021-08-25", 0.0], ["2021-08-25", 0.0], ["2021-08-25", 0.0], ["2021-08-26", 0.0], ["2021-08-26", 0.0], ["2021-08-28", 0.0], ["2021-08-29", 0.0], ["2021-08-29", 0.0], ["2021-08-31", 0.0], ["2021-09-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1896 | True |
2021-07-16 | Will the closing price of Brent crude oil be higher on 16 July 2021 than it was on 16 June 2021? | binary |
<p>Oil prices have risen considerably in 2021 (<a href="https://www.businesstoday.in/markets/commodities/oil-prices-hold-near-multi-year-highs-amid-demand-recovery-brent-reaches-7283-per-barrel/story/441574.html" target="_blank">Business Today</a>). The outcome will be determined by the closing price per barrel as reported by Bloomberg (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CO1:COM" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>). The closing price of Brent on 16 June 2021 was $74.39 per barrel.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-07-19 | gjopen | ["https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-prices-climb-strong-fuel-190000118.html", "https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/commodities/bz%3Anmx", "https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Slips-On-Prospect-Of-Rising-OPEC-Supply.html", "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-climb-second-day-after-us-stockpiles-fall-2021-06-30/", "https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/07/06/oil-price-war-doesnt-make-sense-right-now-says-goldman-sachs-jeff-currie.html", "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-slip-drop-chinese-crude-imports-rings-alarm-bells-demand-2021-07-14/", "https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/crude-oil-price-forecast-crude-oil-gives-up-early-gains-on-tuesday-749836", "https://seekingalpha.com/news/3712915-oil-reverses-early-gains-wti-dips-below-75", "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BZ%3DF", "https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-slumps-on-opec-compromise-expectations-rising-fuel-supplies-11626352556", "https://on.ft.com/3wxIgze", "https://nairametrics.com/2021/07/13/brent-crude-back-above-75-despite-u-s-inflation-scare/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1305157", "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/brent-stays-above-75bbl-amid-impasse-opec-talks-2021-07-12/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CO1:COM", "https://www.ft.com/content/d0b77371-fdd3-4650-81e7-9b5e51f27bb9", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1307959", "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/oil-rises-further-hopes-tighter-supply-opec-talks-abandoned-2021-07-06/", "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-57753667", "https://github.com/jonathanmann/gjopen/blob/master/brent_price_forecasting/brent_monte_carlo.py", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/opec-reaches-compromise-with-u-a-e-over-oil-production-standoff-11626264218", "https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CO1:COM?sref=i2Bc5OtW", "https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-dips-then-trims-losses-after-saudis-u-a-e-said-to-end-opec-standoff-11626266579", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-confirms-vaccine-less-effective-against-delta-variant-eyes-third-dose/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/oil-prices-extend-losses-investors-brace-more-supplies-2021-07-15/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2021-06-17 | 0.0 | [["2021-06-17", 0.01], ["2021-06-18", 0.005], ["2021-06-18", 0.01], ["2021-06-18", 0.225], ["2021-06-18", 0.23], ["2021-06-18", 0.23], ["2021-06-18", 0.41], ["2021-06-18", 0.21], ["2021-06-18", 0.4], ["2021-06-18", 0.405], ["2021-06-18", 0.4], ["2021-06-18", 0.405], ["2021-06-18", 0.4], ["2021-06-18", 0.325], ["2021-06-18", 0.325], ["2021-06-18", 0.4], ["2021-06-18", 0.405], ["2021-06-18", 0.405], ["2021-06-18", 0.405], ["2021-06-18", 0.41], ["2021-06-18", 0.43], ["2021-06-18", 0.45], ["2021-06-18", 0.44], ["2021-06-19", 0.44], ["2021-06-19", 0.45], ["2021-06-19", 0.46], 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["2021-07-15", 0.67], ["2021-07-15", 0.635], ["2021-07-15", 0.6], ["2021-07-15", 0.6], ["2021-07-15", 0.6], ["2021-07-15", 0.6], ["2021-07-15", 0.6], ["2021-07-15", 0.575], ["2021-07-15", 0.575], ["2021-07-15", 0.575], ["2021-07-15", 0.575], ["2021-07-15", 0.525], ["2021-07-15", 0.525], ["2021-07-15", 0.5], ["2021-07-15", 0.5], ["2021-07-15", 0.5], ["2021-07-15", 0.5], ["2021-07-15", 0.495], ["2021-07-15", 0.495], ["2021-07-15", 0.495], ["2021-07-16", 0.495], ["2021-07-16", 0.5], ["2021-07-16", 0.5], ["2021-07-16", 0.5], ["2021-07-16", 0.495], ["2021-07-16", 0.48], ["2021-07-16", 0.48], ["2021-07-16", 0.48], ["2021-07-16", 0.48], ["2021-07-16", 0.47], ["2021-07-16", 0.47]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2043 | True |
None | Before 1 July 2024, will the Scottish Parliament vote in the affirmative for early elections? | binary | <p>The push in Scotland for independence from the United Kingdom continues, with early Scottish Parliament elections suggested as a means toward that end by the independence-minded Scottish National Party (<a href="https://uk.news.yahoo.com/snps-independence-minister-asks-gordon-050000093.html" target="_blank">Yahoo UK</a>, <a href="https://www.thenational.scot/news/23512393.scottish-independence-support-rising-according-new-poll/" target="_blank">The National</a>). Under the Scotland Act of 1998, the Scottish Parliament may dissolve itself and seek early elections if supported by a two-thirds majority, though some members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs) have discussed attempting to do so with a simple majority bill (<a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/3" target="_blank">Legislation.gov.uk - Scotland Act, Section 3</a>, <a href="https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/poll-majority-of-scots-want-snap-holyrood-election-in-wake-of-humza-yousaf-becoming-first-minister-4097807" target="_blank">The Scotsman</a>, <a href="https://www.thenational.scot/news/23283482.rule-change-enable-holyrood-snap-election-face-legal-battle/" target="_blank">The National</a>). In the story from "The National" in the preceding sentence, the "one-line bill to get around the Fixed-term Parliaments Act" refers to the Early Parliamentary General Election Act of 2019 (<a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2019/29/enacted/data.htm" target="_blank">Legislation.gov.uk - Early Parliamentary General Election Act 2019</a>, <a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/what-does-the-early-parliamentary-general-election-bill-do/" target="_blank">House of Commons Library</a>). The question would close upon the announcement of results of a qualifying vote that would lead to early elections, irrespective of any judicial intervention, acts of the Parliament of the United Kingdom, and or Royal Assent. The Scottish Parliament will be deemed to have voted in the affirmative for early elections upon reaching the minimum threshold for passage under the purported legal authority invoked by the parliament (e.g., two-thirds under the terms of the Scotland Act, simple majority by means of legislation only requiring a simple majority).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | None | gjopen | ["https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-63727562", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Background", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Parliament#Elections", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Scottish_Parliament_election", "https://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-scotland-63701835", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senedd#Elections", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Scottish_Parliament_election#Opinion_polling", "https://chat.openai.com/share/646beaeb-45af-4009-8036-15cb244192cd", "https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-65998210", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polling_in_Scotland_for_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2023-06-02 | Not resolved. | [["2023-06-02", 1.0], ["2023-06-02", 0.84], ["2023-06-02", 0.8933], ["2023-06-03", 0.92], ["2023-06-03", 0.756], ["2023-06-03", 0.6383], ["2023-06-03", 0.59], ["2023-06-03", 0.6225], ["2023-06-04", 0.5644], ["2023-06-05", 0.538], ["2023-06-05", 0.517], ["2023-06-05", 0.47], ["2023-06-08", 0.394], ["2023-06-09", 0.351], ["2023-06-11", 0.301], ["2023-06-11", 0.249], ["2023-06-12", 0.239], ["2023-06-12", 0.203], ["2023-06-14", 0.198], ["2023-06-16", 0.203], ["2023-06-17", 0.183], ["2023-06-18", 0.175], ["2023-06-21", 0.158], ["2023-06-21", 0.174], ["2023-06-24", 0.169], ["2023-06-24", 0.162], ["2023-06-24", 0.117], ["2023-06-24", 0.139], ["2023-06-26", 0.161], ["2023-06-27", 0.169], ["2023-06-28", 0.167], ["2023-07-01", 0.166], ["2023-07-02", 0.164], ["2023-07-08", 0.155], ["2023-07-10", 0.154], ["2023-07-10", 0.138], ["2023-07-12", 0.148], ["2023-07-14", 0.145], ["2023-07-14", 0.087], ["2023-07-16", 0.067], ["2023-07-23", 0.064], ["2023-07-30", 0.058], ["2023-08-01", 0.057], ["2023-08-02", 0.0609], ["2023-08-05", 0.06], ["2023-08-08", 0.0573], ["2023-08-10", 0.0573], ["2023-08-16", 0.0573], ["2023-08-17", 0.0525], ["2023-08-18", 0.0558], ["2023-08-22", 0.0558], ["2023-08-29", 0.0525], ["2023-09-01", 0.0442], ["2023-09-10", 0.0425], ["2023-09-13", 0.0442], ["2023-09-13", 0.0442], ["2023-09-15", 0.0433], ["2023-09-29", 0.1092], ["2023-10-01", 0.1008], ["2023-10-03", 0.0992], ["2023-10-06", 0.0954], ["2023-10-06", 0.0938], ["2023-10-16", 0.0931], ["2023-10-19", 0.0946], ["2023-10-21", 0.0946], ["2023-10-22", 0.0946], ["2023-10-31", 0.0931], ["2023-11-01", 0.1185], ["2023-11-11", 0.1177], ["2023-11-13", 0.1177], ["2023-11-16", 0.1177], ["2023-11-20", 0.1177], ["2023-11-22", 0.1177], ["2023-12-01", 0.1177], ["2023-12-02", 0.1177], ["2023-12-08", 0.1177], ["2023-12-10", 0.1764], ["2023-12-10", 0.1136], ["2023-12-11", 0.1136], ["2023-12-13", 0.1507], ["2023-12-17", 0.1479], ["2023-12-26", 0.1514], ["2024-01-02", 0.15], ["2024-01-02", 0.15], ["2024-01-09", 0.15], ["2024-01-10", 0.1487], ["2024-01-12", 0.1487]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2902 | False |
2023-10-01 | Will monthly global land and sea temperature anomalies reach or exceed 1.4°C before October 2023, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)? | binary |
<p>Recorded global surface temperatures have risen steadily over the past decades (<a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150828/2022-tied-for-fifth-warmest-year-on-record" target="_blank">NASA Earth Observatory</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2023 if still open and the outcome determined using data published by NOAA (<a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/global-temperature-anomalies/anomalies" target="_blank">NOAA - Global Anomalies and Index Data</a>, click "Download" for all data with the site's default settings [Monthly, Global, Land and Ocean, and CSV]). The highest anomaly, or the difference between a given time period as compared to the 20th century average, on record was 1.31°C in March 2016 as of the launch of this question.</p><p></p><p><i>This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/ubs/" target="_blank">here</a> for more details.</i></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-10-13 | gjopen | ["https://www.remss.com/research/climate/#Atmospheric-Temperature", "https://apple.news/AnMf8W5d7Q6axesAZSB3mDQ", "https://www.yourweather.co.uk/news/trending/alert-latest-el-nino-forecast-announces-intense-event-meteorology-weather-climate.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer#Effects", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hadley_cell", "https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/14/2/345", "https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/17/13439/2017/acp-17-13439-2017.pdf", "https://climate.copernicus.eu/july-2023-sees-multiple-global-temperature-records-broken", "https://wcrp-cmip.org/cmip-phase-6-cmip6/#evaluation", "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202303#current-month", "https://www.windy.com/de/-SO2-tcso2?tcso2,55.304,-147.524,4", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shiveluch#April_2023_eruption", "https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-65602293", "https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/apr/26/accelerating-ocean-warming-earth-temperatures-climate-crisis", "https://www.carbonbrief.org/tonga-volcano-eruption-raises-imminent-risk-of-temporary-1-5c-breach/", "https://www.remss.com/measurements/upper-air-temperature/#RSS%20Sounding%20Products", "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/noaa-global-temp", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avachinsky", "https://www.remss.com/measurements/sea-surface-temperature/", "https://blogs.edf.org/climate411/2007/07/18/models_how_good/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_volcanoes_in_Russia#Kamchatka", "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/global-temperature-anomalies/mean", "https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-66104822", "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202304#current-month", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decade_Volcanoes"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2023-02-03 | 1.0 | [["2023-02-03", 0.01], ["2023-02-03", 0.015], ["2023-02-03", 0.01], ["2023-02-03", 0.0175], ["2023-02-03", 0.014], ["2023-02-03", 0.0117], ["2023-02-03", 0.0114], ["2023-02-03", 0.135], ["2023-02-03", 0.1211], ["2023-02-04", 0.209], ["2023-02-04", 0.208], ["2023-02-04", 0.1891], ["2023-02-04", 0.1733], ["2023-02-04", 0.1638], ["2023-02-04", 0.1986], ["2023-02-04", 0.1853], ["2023-02-04", 0.1738], ["2023-02-04", 0.1738], ["2023-02-05", 0.1635], ["2023-02-05", 0.155], ["2023-02-05", 0.1474], ["2023-02-05", 0.1425], ["2023-02-05", 0.143], ["2023-02-05", 0.1371], ["2023-02-05", 0.1318], ["2023-02-06", 0.1304], ["2023-02-06", 0.1271], ["2023-02-06", 0.1192], ["2023-02-06", 0.1274], ["2023-02-07", 0.1156], ["2023-02-07", 0.0892], ["2023-02-07", 0.0836], ["2023-02-07", 0.0847], ["2023-02-07", 0.0813], ["2023-02-08", 0.1579], ["2023-02-08", 0.0864], ["2023-02-08", 0.0864], ["2023-02-09", 0.0925], ["2023-02-09", 0.0925], ["2023-02-09", 0.1085], ["2023-02-11", 0.1085], ["2023-02-11", 0.1077], ["2023-02-12", 0.1007], ["2023-02-12", 0.1629], ["2023-02-12", 0.1271], ["2023-02-13", 0.0836], ["2023-02-13", 0.1329], ["2023-02-13", 0.164], ["2023-02-15", 0.164], ["2023-02-15", 0.1544], ["2023-02-16", 0.1569], ["2023-02-16", 0.1563], ["2023-02-16", 0.1538], ["2023-02-18", 0.1888], ["2023-02-18", 0.2182], ["2023-02-19", 0.2176], ["2023-02-19", 0.2176], ["2023-02-20", 0.2167], ["2023-02-20", 0.2161], ["2023-02-22", 0.1994], ["2023-02-23", 0.1994], ["2023-02-24", 0.1989], ["2023-02-26", 0.24], ["2023-02-27", 0.2422], ["2023-02-27", 0.2558], ["2023-02-27", 0.2358], ["2023-02-27", 0.2275], ["2023-02-28", 0.218], ["2023-02-28", 0.2175], ["2023-02-28", 0.19], ["2023-03-02", 0.1885], ["2023-03-03", 0.1914], ["2023-03-04", 0.2262], ["2023-03-04", 0.2432], ["2023-03-04", 0.2409], ["2023-03-05", 0.2427], ["2023-03-05", 0.2348], ["2023-03-06", 0.2348], ["2023-03-06", 0.2026], ["2023-03-10", 0.1809], ["2023-03-10", 0.1965], ["2023-03-10", 0.1965], ["2023-03-10", 0.1965], ["2023-03-10", 0.1983], ["2023-03-11", 0.1913], ["2023-03-11", 0.1854], ["2023-03-12", 0.185], ["2023-03-14", 0.185], ["2023-03-15", 0.1858], ["2023-03-17", 0.1854], ["2023-03-17", 0.185], ["2023-03-19", 0.1542], ["2023-03-20", 0.1546], ["2023-03-23", 0.1575], ["2023-03-26", 0.1375], ["2023-03-27", 0.1375], ["2023-03-31", 0.1367], ["2023-03-31", 0.1388], ["2023-03-31", 0.1375], ["2023-04-01", 0.1592], ["2023-04-01", 0.1588], ["2023-04-02", 0.1588], ["2023-04-04", 0.1532], ["2023-04-08", 0.1476], ["2023-04-09", 0.1476], ["2023-04-09", 0.1476], ["2023-04-10", 0.1356], ["2023-04-10", 0.1356], ["2023-04-12", 0.1368], ["2023-04-12", 0.1316], ["2023-04-15", 0.1316], ["2023-04-17", 0.1284], ["2023-04-17", 0.1376], ["2023-04-17", 0.1376], ["2023-04-17", 0.1352], ["2023-04-17", 0.1348], ["2023-04-18", 0.1348], ["2023-04-18", 0.1152], ["2023-04-19", 0.1092], ["2023-04-19", 0.1104], ["2023-04-19", 0.1036], ["2023-04-20", 0.1104], ["2023-04-21", 0.1056], ["2023-04-22", 0.1084], ["2023-04-24", 0.1068], ["2023-04-24", 0.1068], ["2023-04-25", 0.1076], ["2023-04-25", 0.1076], ["2023-04-25", 0.1104], ["2023-04-26", 0.1104], ["2023-04-26", 0.0873], ["2023-04-27", 0.0888], ["2023-04-29", 0.1019], ["2023-04-30", 0.1038], ["2023-05-01", 0.1373], ["2023-05-03", 0.1373], ["2023-05-03", 0.1427], ["2023-05-03", 0.1427], ["2023-05-07", 0.1427], ["2023-05-07", 0.14], ["2023-05-07", 0.1388], ["2023-05-11", 0.1388], ["2023-05-12", 0.1359], ["2023-05-12", 0.1311], ["2023-05-13", 0.1311], ["2023-05-13", 0.1311], ["2023-05-14", 0.1293], ["2023-05-14", 0.1263], ["2023-05-16", 0.1193], ["2023-05-17", 0.1156], ["2023-05-18", 0.1152], ["2023-05-20", 0.1152], ["2023-05-20", 0.1152], ["2023-05-21", 0.1152], ["2023-05-21", 0.1133], ["2023-05-22", 0.1004], ["2023-05-22", 0.1004], ["2023-05-24", 0.0993], ["2023-05-24", 0.0989], ["2023-05-25", 0.0989], ["2023-05-27", 0.0978], ["2023-05-28", 0.0974], ["2023-05-30", 0.0946], ["2023-06-01", 0.0939], ["2023-06-03", 0.0921], ["2023-06-04", 0.0918], ["2023-06-04", 0.0911], ["2023-06-06", 0.0911], ["2023-06-07", 0.0896], ["2023-06-09", 0.0864], ["2023-06-10", 0.0746], ["2023-06-11", 0.0693], ["2023-06-11", 0.0689], ["2023-06-13", 0.0689], ["2023-06-13", 0.0689], ["2023-06-15", 0.0682], ["2023-06-15", 0.0671], ["2023-06-16", 0.0668], ["2023-06-20", 0.0668], ["2023-06-20", 0.0671], ["2023-06-21", 0.0582], ["2023-06-22", 0.0582], ["2023-06-24", 0.0579], ["2023-06-25", 0.0579], ["2023-06-26", 0.0552], ["2023-06-28", 0.0548], ["2023-07-02", 0.0517], ["2023-07-03", 0.0507], ["2023-07-04", 0.0459], ["2023-07-04", 0.0455], ["2023-07-05", 0.0455], ["2023-07-05", 0.0773], ["2023-07-06", 0.078], ["2023-07-06", 0.078], ["2023-07-06", 0.078], ["2023-07-06", 0.077], ["2023-07-06", 0.0763], ["2023-07-06", 0.0767], ["2023-07-08", 0.0767], ["2023-07-10", 0.048], ["2023-07-13", 0.048], ["2023-07-14", 0.048], ["2023-07-14", 0.049], ["2023-07-15", 0.0493], ["2023-07-15", 0.0543], ["2023-07-18", 0.0547], ["2023-07-18", 0.0547], ["2023-07-20", 0.0547], ["2023-07-20", 0.0547], ["2023-07-21", 0.0543], ["2023-07-24", 0.0547], ["2023-07-25", 0.0547], ["2023-07-25", 0.0553], ["2023-07-25", 0.0535], ["2023-07-26", 0.0535], ["2023-07-27", 0.081], ["2023-07-27", 0.0826], ["2023-07-27", 0.0848], ["2023-07-28", 0.0832], ["2023-07-31", 0.0832], ["2023-08-04", 0.0861], ["2023-08-05", 0.1177], ["2023-08-05", 0.1226], ["2023-08-06", 0.1226], ["2023-08-06", 0.1229], ["2023-08-06", 0.1226], ["2023-08-07", 0.1429], ["2023-08-09", 0.1445], ["2023-08-10", 0.1532], ["2023-08-10", 0.1558], ["2023-08-11", 0.1558], ["2023-08-11", 0.1581], ["2023-08-11", 0.1703], ["2023-08-12", 0.1706], ["2023-08-12", 0.14], ["2023-08-13", 0.1397], ["2023-08-13", 0.1377], ["2023-08-14", 0.1352], ["2023-08-15", 0.1352], ["2023-08-15", 0.1342], ["2023-08-15", 0.1339], ["2023-08-16", 0.1332], ["2023-08-17", 0.13], ["2023-08-19", 0.1259], ["2023-08-19", 0.1259], ["2023-08-20", 0.1256], ["2023-08-20", 0.1275], ["2023-08-21", 0.1272], ["2023-08-21", 0.1269], ["2023-08-21", 0.1116], ["2023-08-21", 0.1116], ["2023-08-21", 0.1106], ["2023-08-22", 0.1075], ["2023-08-23", 0.1069], ["2023-08-23", 0.1063], ["2023-08-24", 0.1056], ["2023-08-24", 0.1059], ["2023-08-24", 0.1044], ["2023-08-31", 0.1031], ["2023-08-31", 0.1031], ["2023-08-31", 0.1344], ["2023-08-31", 0.1356], ["2023-08-31", 0.1366], ["2023-09-02", 0.1324], ["2023-09-04", 0.1327], ["2023-09-05", 0.1315], ["2023-09-05", 0.1312], ["2023-09-05", 0.1306], ["2023-09-05", 0.1309], ["2023-09-06", 0.13], ["2023-09-06", 0.13], ["2023-09-06", 0.1279], ["2023-09-07", 0.1279], ["2023-09-08", 0.1315], ["2023-09-08", 0.1315], ["2023-09-08", 0.1276], ["2023-09-08", 0.1271], ["2023-09-08", 0.1271], ["2023-09-13", 0.1268], ["2023-09-13", 0.1271], ["2023-09-13", 0.1279], ["2023-09-14", 0.1032], ["2023-09-14", 0.1026], ["2023-09-14", 0.1053], ["2023-09-16", 0.1056], ["2023-09-17", 0.1026], ["2023-09-18", 0.1266], ["2023-09-19", 0.1266], ["2023-09-19", 0.1258], ["2023-09-20", 0.1258], ["2023-09-20", 0.1258], ["2023-09-21", 0.1264], ["2023-09-24", 0.1267], ["2023-09-25", 0.1239], ["2023-09-25", 0.1253], ["2023-09-25", 0.1292], ["2023-09-26", 0.1306], ["2023-09-26", 0.1306], ["2023-09-27", 0.1272], ["2023-09-27", 0.1078], ["2023-09-27", 0.1072], ["2023-09-28", 0.11], ["2023-09-29", 0.127], ["2023-09-29", 0.1292], ["2023-09-29", 0.1208], ["2023-09-30", 0.1176], ["2023-09-30", 0.1168], ["2023-09-30", 0.1426], ["2023-09-30", 0.1166], ["2023-09-30", 0.1168], ["2023-09-30", 0.1138], ["2023-10-01", 0.1138], ["2023-10-01", 0.1138]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2755 | True |
2023-12-15 | Before 15 December 2023, will Tesla announce that Elon Musk has ceased or will cease to be the company's sole CEO? | binary |
<p>Elon Musk, Tesla's CEO, has been under pressure as his time has been divided among other ventures, including Twitter (<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/19/business/tesla-stock-downgrade/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/13/tesla-stock-down-28percent-since-elon-musk-took-over-twitter.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>). An announced leave of absence or addition of a co-CEO would count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-12-15 | gjopen | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eike_Batista#Financial_losses", "https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/11/16/elon-musks-behavior-and-damage-to-tesla-brand-is-absolutely-outrageous-says-investor-ross-gerber.html", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/20/tech/tesla-elon-musk-suspension/index.html", "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tesla-drops-price-model-y-suv-under-average-cost-us-vehicle/", "https://www.kornferry.com/insights/this-week-in-leadership/where-have-all-the-long-tenured-ceos-gone", "https://cleantechnica.com/2023/05/12/rumor-elon-musk-to-step-aside-at-tesla-and-twitter/", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk-revives-old-banking-dream-in-pursuing-250-billion-twitter-valuation-88289aba?page=1", "https://www.investors.com/news/tesla-stock-did-elon-musks-apparent-antisemitism-trip-up-teslas-rebound/", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-executive-elon-musk-cfo-zach-kirkhorn-b1998ae7", "https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2018/02/12/ceo-tenure-rates/", "https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/musk-names-new-twitter-ceo-5275321/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPh4iF76LbU", "https://eu.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2023/05/17/elon-musk-remain-tesla-ceo/70227660007/", "https://twitter.com/FortuneMagazine/status/1656850319668641792", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aYEDPQ-NQg8", "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1656748197308674048", "https://news.yahoo.com/tesla-under-investigation-elon-musk-220000435.html", "https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/04/tech/tom-zhu-tesla-china-chief-profile-intl-hnk/index.html", "https://www.bbc.com/news/business-64376727", "https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65562289", "https://twitter.com/JGreenblattADL/status/1725652667119092100", "https://twitter.com/CWBOCA/status/1724868476861301153", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-elon-musk-glass-house-doj-sec-investigation-c723166b", "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/musk-tells-tesla-shareholders-hes-not-stepping-down-as-ceo-considering-advertising", "https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4314987-white-house-blasts-musk-unacceptable-antisemitic-tweet/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2022-12-23 | 0.0 | [["2022-12-23", 0.025], ["2022-12-23", 0.075], ["2022-12-23", 0.1917], ["2022-12-23", 0.19], ["2022-12-23", 0.2189], ["2022-12-23", 0.317], ["2022-12-24", 0.32], ["2022-12-24", 0.3038], ["2022-12-24", 0.2821], ["2022-12-24", 0.3127], ["2022-12-24", 0.2575], ["2022-12-24", 0.2361], ["2022-12-24", 0.2342], ["2022-12-24", 0.2167], ["2022-12-25", 0.25], ["2022-12-25", 0.2452], ["2022-12-25", 0.2459], ["2022-12-26", 0.2638], ["2022-12-26", 0.2648], ["2022-12-26", 0.28], ["2022-12-26", 0.293], ["2022-12-26", 0.3032], ["2022-12-27", 0.2733], ["2022-12-27", 0.2952], ["2022-12-27", 0.3096], ["2022-12-27", 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["2023-01-21", 0.2846], ["2023-01-22", 0.2795], ["2023-01-22", 0.2847], ["2023-01-23", 0.2889], ["2023-01-24", 0.2623], ["2023-01-24", 0.2553], ["2023-01-24", 0.2666], ["2023-01-25", 0.2683], ["2023-01-25", 0.269], ["2023-01-26", 0.2674], ["2023-01-27", 0.2605], ["2023-01-28", 0.2714], ["2023-01-29", 0.269], ["2023-01-30", 0.2749], ["2023-01-30", 0.2723], ["2023-02-03", 0.267], ["2023-02-04", 0.2614], ["2023-02-05", 0.2477], ["2023-02-05", 0.248], ["2023-02-07", 0.252], ["2023-02-07", 0.2498], ["2023-02-09", 0.2459], ["2023-02-09", 0.2427], ["2023-02-12", 0.242], ["2023-02-13", 0.2239], ["2023-02-13", 0.2239], ["2023-02-16", 0.2233], ["2023-02-17", 0.2048], ["2023-02-18", 0.2037], ["2023-02-19", 0.2111], ["2023-02-20", 0.21], ["2023-02-22", 0.2072], ["2023-02-25", 0.2026], ["2023-02-25", 0.1973], ["2023-02-26", 0.2048], ["2023-02-27", 0.2027], ["2023-02-28", 0.201], ["2023-03-01", 0.1923], ["2023-03-02", 0.1944], ["2023-03-04", 0.1985], ["2023-03-05", 0.2016], ["2023-03-07", 0.19], ["2023-03-09", 0.1878], ["2023-03-11", 0.1874], ["2023-03-14", 0.1862], ["2023-03-14", 0.1868], ["2023-03-16", 0.1892], ["2023-03-16", 0.1884], ["2023-03-17", 0.1849], ["2023-03-19", 0.1845], ["2023-03-20", 0.1825], ["2023-03-27", 0.179], ["2023-03-29", 0.1719], ["2023-03-31", 0.1754], ["2023-04-04", 0.1673], ["2023-04-07", 0.1669], ["2023-04-07", 0.1658], ["2023-04-12", 0.1792], ["2023-04-18", 0.1845], ["2023-04-21", 0.1868], ["2023-04-23", 0.1932], ["2023-04-24", 0.193], ["2023-04-25", 0.1987], ["2023-04-25", 0.1972], ["2023-04-26", 0.1964], ["2023-04-28", 0.196], ["2023-04-30", 0.1898], ["2023-05-03", 0.1858], ["2023-05-06", 0.1832], ["2023-05-08", 0.1821], ["2023-05-11", 0.1817], ["2023-05-11", 0.1806], ["2023-05-11", 0.1943], ["2023-05-11", 0.2111], ["2023-05-12", 0.2107], ["2023-05-12", 0.2244], ["2023-05-12", 0.242], ["2023-05-12", 0.2441], ["2023-05-12", 0.2441], ["2023-05-12", 0.2338], ["2023-05-12", 0.2173], ["2023-05-12", 0.2467], ["2023-05-12", 0.2458], ["2023-05-13", 0.2487], ["2023-05-14", 0.2502], ["2023-05-17", 0.244], ["2023-05-17", 0.2373], ["2023-05-17", 0.2385], ["2023-05-19", 0.238], ["2023-05-20", 0.2367], ["2023-05-20", 0.2367], ["2023-05-20", 0.2316], ["2023-05-22", 0.2284], ["2023-05-23", 0.2271], ["2023-05-26", 0.2444], ["2023-05-29", 0.2229], ["2023-05-31", 0.2221], ["2023-06-01", 0.225], ["2023-06-01", 0.2261], ["2023-06-02", 0.2241], ["2023-06-05", 0.2204], ["2023-06-06", 0.2168], ["2023-06-07", 0.2146], ["2023-06-11", 0.214], ["2023-06-13", 0.2109], ["2023-06-14", 0.2091], ["2023-06-16", 0.2068], ["2023-06-19", 0.2023], ["2023-06-21", 0.2023], ["2023-06-22", 0.1981], ["2023-06-26", 0.194], ["2023-06-28", 0.1939], ["2023-06-28", 0.1929], ["2023-07-01", 0.1914], ["2023-07-05", 0.1947], ["2023-07-09", 0.1945], ["2023-07-11", 0.1844], ["2023-07-12", 0.1807], ["2023-07-12", 0.1807], ["2023-07-12", 0.18], ["2023-07-13", 0.18], ["2023-07-15", 0.1773], ["2023-07-18", 0.1747], ["2023-07-19", 0.1733], ["2023-07-20", 0.1732], ["2023-07-21", 0.1727], ["2023-07-21", 0.1702], ["2023-07-24", 0.1382], ["2023-07-24", 0.1375], ["2023-07-24", 0.1369], ["2023-07-26", 0.1357], ["2023-07-26", 0.1343], ["2023-07-27", 0.1334], ["2023-07-28", 0.1331], ["2023-07-31", 0.1323], ["2023-07-31", 0.1376], ["2023-08-02", 0.1373], ["2023-08-03", 0.135], ["2023-08-06", 0.1348], ["2023-08-07", 0.1437], ["2023-08-10", 0.1294], ["2023-08-11", 0.1292], ["2023-08-11", 0.1286], ["2023-08-18", 0.1189], ["2023-08-19", 0.1187], ["2023-08-20", 0.113], ["2023-08-21", 0.1125], ["2023-08-22", 0.1124], ["2023-08-22", 0.1086], ["2023-08-29", 0.1061], ["2023-08-30", 0.1055], ["2023-08-31", 0.1061], ["2023-09-01", 0.1045], ["2023-09-01", 0.1038], ["2023-09-02", 0.1022], ["2023-09-08", 0.0989], ["2023-09-08", 0.0986], ["2023-09-10", 0.0985], ["2023-09-11", 0.1008], ["2023-09-14", 0.0997], ["2023-09-14", 0.0914], ["2023-09-15", 0.0908], ["2023-09-17", 0.0905], ["2023-09-19", 0.0915], ["2023-09-19", 0.0912], ["2023-09-21", 0.0915], ["2023-09-23", 0.0738], ["2023-09-23", 0.0723], ["2023-09-25", 0.0717], ["2023-09-25", 0.0715], ["2023-09-27", 0.0716], ["2023-09-28", 0.0704], ["2023-09-29", 0.0701], ["2023-09-30", 0.0697], ["2023-10-01", 0.0675], ["2023-10-02", 0.0641], ["2023-10-03", 0.0638], ["2023-10-03", 0.0631], ["2023-10-08", 0.0644], ["2023-10-08", 0.0641], ["2023-10-10", 0.0637], ["2023-10-11", 0.0633], ["2023-10-12", 0.0607], ["2023-10-13", 0.0606], ["2023-10-14", 0.0587], ["2023-10-16", 0.0584], ["2023-10-16", 0.0584], ["2023-10-17", 0.0581], ["2023-10-18", 0.0581], ["2023-10-19", 0.059], ["2023-10-20", 0.059], ["2023-10-22", 0.0593], ["2023-10-22", 0.059], ["2023-10-23", 0.059], ["2023-10-24", 0.0589], ["2023-10-25", 0.0581], ["2023-10-26", 0.0581], ["2023-10-27", 0.0601], ["2023-10-27", 0.0601], ["2023-10-29", 0.0601], ["2023-10-30", 0.0616], ["2023-10-30", 0.0606], ["2023-10-31", 0.0604], ["2023-10-31", 0.0603], ["2023-11-02", 0.0599], ["2023-11-04", 0.0582], ["2023-11-04", 0.0579], ["2023-11-05", 0.0572], ["2023-11-06", 0.0569], ["2023-11-07", 0.0567], ["2023-11-08", 0.0547], ["2023-11-08", 0.0408], ["2023-11-09", 0.0406], ["2023-11-09", 0.0404], ["2023-11-09", 0.0397], ["2023-11-09", 0.0344], ["2023-11-11", 0.0346], ["2023-11-11", 0.0345], ["2023-11-11", 0.0332], ["2023-11-12", 0.0328], ["2023-11-12", 0.033], ["2023-11-13", 0.0326], ["2023-11-14", 0.0323], ["2023-11-15", 0.0319], ["2023-11-15", 0.0325], ["2023-11-16", 0.0324], ["2023-11-17", 0.032], ["2023-11-17", 0.0341], ["2023-11-18", 0.0388], ["2023-11-18", 0.0405], ["2023-11-20", 0.0403], ["2023-11-20", 0.0399], ["2023-11-22", 0.0386], ["2023-11-22", 0.0384], ["2023-11-22", 0.0384], ["2023-11-25", 0.0379], ["2023-11-26", 0.0366], ["2023-11-26", 0.0353], ["2023-11-28", 0.0352], ["2023-11-28", 0.0324], ["2023-11-29", 0.0324], ["2023-12-01", 0.0283], ["2023-12-01", 0.028], ["2023-12-02", 0.0268], ["2023-12-03", 0.0266], ["2023-12-04", 0.0246], ["2023-12-05", 0.0244], ["2023-12-06", 0.0257], ["2023-12-06", 0.0254], ["2023-12-08", 0.0243], ["2023-12-08", 0.0241], ["2023-12-09", 0.024], ["2023-12-10", 0.0238], ["2023-12-10", 0.0238], ["2023-12-11", 0.0236], ["2023-12-12", 0.0236], ["2023-12-12", 0.0235], ["2023-12-12", 0.0234], ["2023-12-13", 0.0233], ["2023-12-14", 0.0228], ["2023-12-14", 0.0228], ["2023-12-15", 0.0228]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2682 | True |
2020-12-28 | Will a piece of federal legislation providing for $250 billion or more of new fiscal stimulus become law in the U.S. before 1 January 2021? | binary |
<p>In response to the economic consequences from the COVID-19 pandemic, policymakers have made efforts to stimulate the American economy (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/27/house-passes-2-trillion-coronavirus-stimulus-bill-sends-it-to-trump.html,%20https://www.crfb.org/blogs/covid-money-tracker-policies-enacted-to-date" target="_blank">CNBC</a>). Debate over another round of fiscal stimulus continues (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/23/economists-want-second-1200-stimulus-checks-where-the-relief-stands.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2020/11/04/mcconnell-new-stimulus-bill/" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>). The outcome will be determined using the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget's covidmoneytracker.org interactive table by selecting legislation that becomes law during the question's open period (if any) and totaling the amount "ALLOWED" in the "Legislative" subtotal (<a href="https://www.covidmoneytracker.org/explore-data/interactive-table" target="_blank">COVID Money Tracker</a>). Amounts in the "Administrative" and "Federal Reserve" subtotals would not count.</p><p></p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-01-01 | gjopen | ["https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/31/opinion/trumps-united-american-emirate.html", "https://mobile.twitter.com/burgessev/status/1343360876162805766", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1206861", "https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-12-27/larry-summers-trump-pelosi-2-000-stimulus-checks-are-a-mistake?sref=htOHjx5Y", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-congress-factbox/factbox-now-what-happens-to-the-892-billion-covid-aid-bill-here-are-three-options-idUSKBN28Y22S", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-aid-package-in-limbo-after-trumps-surprise-demand-to-boost-direct-payments-11608739678?mod=hp_lead_pos1", "https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/23/politics/donald-trump-covid-relief-capitol-hill/index.html", "https://rabbisacks.org/topics/hope-vrs-optimism/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EeB_tmdFAdc", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_foreign_aid", "https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/22/politics/trump-coronavirus-relief-bill/index.html", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/12/22/trump-stimulus-video-bill/", "https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1343068648118874113", "https://www.bbc.com/news/business-55324489", "https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump", "https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/us-foreign-aid-by-country", "https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042115/what-are-some-examples-pork-barrel-politics-united-states.asp", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_project", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pocket_veto", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FMLI5qI8WU0", "https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/28/bernie-sanders-filibuster-delay-defense-veto-override-451697", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55420366", "https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_L._Friedman#Trump-Regierung", "https://us.cnn.com/2020/12/25/opinions/trump-republicans-mcconnell-perdue-loeffler-lockhart/index.html", "https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-the-stimulus-bill-could-come-undone-and-what-it-would-mean-for-the-stock-market-51608813011"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2020-12-09 | 1.0 | [["2020-12-09", 0.5], ["2020-12-09", 0.25], ["2020-12-09", 0.01], ["2020-12-09", 0.17], ["2020-12-09", 0.33], ["2020-12-09", 0.225], ["2020-12-09", 0.33], ["2020-12-09", 0.225], ["2020-12-09", 0.33], ["2020-12-10", 0.415], ["2020-12-10", 0.33], ["2020-12-10", 0.27], ["2020-12-10", 0.27], ["2020-12-10", 0.21], ["2020-12-10", 0.27], ["2020-12-10", 0.21], ["2020-12-10", 0.21], ["2020-12-10", 0.27], ["2020-12-11", 0.33], ["2020-12-11", 0.27], ["2020-12-11", 0.21], ["2020-12-11", 0.27], ["2020-12-11", 0.25], ["2020-12-11", 0.25], ["2020-12-11", 0.25], ["2020-12-11", 0.29], ["2020-12-11", 0.34], ["2020-12-11", 0.35], ["2020-12-12", 0.35], ["2020-12-12", 0.365], ["2020-12-12", 0.38], ["2020-12-12", 0.38], ["2020-12-12", 0.365], ["2020-12-12", 0.365], ["2020-12-12", 0.38], ["2020-12-12", 0.365], ["2020-12-12", 0.35], ["2020-12-12", 0.38], ["2020-12-12", 0.38], ["2020-12-12", 0.39], ["2020-12-12", 0.4], ["2020-12-13", 0.39], ["2020-12-13", 0.39], ["2020-12-13", 0.39], ["2020-12-13", 0.4], ["2020-12-14", 0.4], ["2020-12-14", 0.39], ["2020-12-14", 0.38], ["2020-12-14", 0.365], ["2020-12-14", 0.38], ["2020-12-14", 0.38], ["2020-12-14", 0.38], ["2020-12-14", 0.38], ["2020-12-14", 0.365], ["2020-12-14", 0.35], ["2020-12-15", 0.35], ["2020-12-15", 0.4], ["2020-12-15", 0.55], ["2020-12-15", 0.7], ["2020-12-15", 0.71], ["2020-12-15", 0.72], ["2020-12-15", 0.735], ["2020-12-15", 0.75], ["2020-12-15", 0.75], ["2020-12-15", 0.75], ["2020-12-15", 0.75], ["2020-12-15", 0.75], ["2020-12-15", 0.75], ["2020-12-15", 0.75], ["2020-12-15", 0.75], ["2020-12-15", 0.75], ["2020-12-15", 0.75], ["2020-12-16", 0.75], ["2020-12-16", 0.75], ["2020-12-16", 0.775], ["2020-12-16", 0.775], ["2020-12-16", 0.775], ["2020-12-16", 0.75], ["2020-12-16", 0.75], ["2020-12-16", 0.75], ["2020-12-16", 0.75], ["2020-12-16", 0.8], ["2020-12-16", 0.8], ["2020-12-16", 0.825], ["2020-12-16", 0.85], ["2020-12-16", 0.85], ["2020-12-16", 0.85], ["2020-12-16", 0.85], ["2020-12-16", 0.85], ["2020-12-16", 0.85], ["2020-12-16", 0.865], ["2020-12-16", 0.85], ["2020-12-16", 0.88], ["2020-12-16", 0.87], ["2020-12-16", 0.88], ["2020-12-16", 0.88], ["2020-12-17", 0.89], ["2020-12-17", 0.9], ["2020-12-17", 0.9], ["2020-12-17", 0.9], ["2020-12-17", 0.9], ["2020-12-17", 0.9], ["2020-12-17", 0.9], ["2020-12-17", 0.9], ["2020-12-17", 0.9], ["2020-12-17", 0.9], ["2020-12-17", 0.9], ["2020-12-17", 0.9], ["2020-12-17", 0.9], ["2020-12-18", 0.94], ["2020-12-18", 0.945], ["2020-12-18", 0.925], ["2020-12-18", 0.94], ["2020-12-18", 0.945], ["2020-12-18", 0.95], ["2020-12-18", 0.95], ["2020-12-18", 0.95], ["2020-12-18", 0.95], ["2020-12-18", 0.95], ["2020-12-19", 0.945], ["2020-12-19", 0.94], ["2020-12-19", 0.945], ["2020-12-19", 0.925], ["2020-12-20", 0.925], ["2020-12-20", 0.925], ["2020-12-20", 0.945], ["2020-12-20", 0.95], ["2020-12-20", 0.955], ["2020-12-20", 0.965], ["2020-12-20", 0.965], ["2020-12-20", 0.975], ["2020-12-20", 0.985], ["2020-12-21", 0.99], ["2020-12-21", 0.99], ["2020-12-21", 0.99], ["2020-12-21", 0.99], ["2020-12-21", 0.99], ["2020-12-21", 0.99], ["2020-12-21", 0.995], ["2020-12-21", 0.995], ["2020-12-21", 1.0], ["2020-12-21", 1.0], ["2020-12-22", 1.0], ["2020-12-22", 1.0], ["2020-12-22", 1.0], ["2020-12-22", 1.0], ["2020-12-22", 1.0], ["2020-12-23", 1.0], ["2020-12-23", 1.0], ["2020-12-23", 1.0], ["2020-12-23", 1.0], ["2020-12-23", 1.0], ["2020-12-23", 1.0], ["2020-12-23", 1.0], ["2020-12-23", 1.0], ["2020-12-23", 1.0], ["2020-12-23", 1.0], ["2020-12-23", 1.0], ["2020-12-23", 1.0], ["2020-12-23", 1.0], ["2020-12-23", 1.0], ["2020-12-23", 1.0], ["2020-12-23", 1.0], ["2020-12-23", 0.99], ["2020-12-23", 0.99], ["2020-12-23", 0.99], ["2020-12-23", 0.985], ["2020-12-23", 0.965], ["2020-12-23", 0.965], ["2020-12-24", 0.965], ["2020-12-24", 0.965], ["2020-12-24", 0.965], ["2020-12-24", 0.965], ["2020-12-25", 0.965], ["2020-12-25", 0.965], ["2020-12-25", 0.965], ["2020-12-25", 0.965], ["2020-12-25", 0.965], ["2020-12-25", 0.965], ["2020-12-25", 0.95], ["2020-12-25", 0.95], ["2020-12-26", 0.95], ["2020-12-26", 0.93], ["2020-12-26", 0.93], ["2020-12-26", 0.925], ["2020-12-26", 0.875], ["2020-12-26", 0.875], ["2020-12-26", 0.875], ["2020-12-27", 0.875], ["2020-12-27", 0.845], ["2020-12-27", 0.835], ["2020-12-27", 0.79], ["2020-12-27", 0.79], ["2020-12-27", 0.79], ["2020-12-27", 0.75], ["2020-12-27", 0.75], ["2020-12-27", 0.75], ["2020-12-27", 0.75], ["2020-12-27", 0.75], ["2020-12-27", 0.75], ["2020-12-27", 0.73], ["2020-12-28", 0.73]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1859 | True |
2021-12-09 | Before 1 January 2023, will a Latin American or Caribbean nation cease to formally recognize Taiwan? | binary |
<p>In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) (<a href="https://www.newsweek.com/who-recognizes-taiwan-two-change-china-1460559" target="_blank">Newsweek</a>). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC, including nine in Latin America and Caribbean (<a href="https://en.mofa.gov.tw/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=1294&sms=1007" target="_blank">Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-12-14 | gjopen | ["https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4359445", "https://www.taiwanembassy.org/hn/index.html", "https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4333767", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1362236", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/united-states-china-tussle-over-honduras-it-weighs-taiwan-ties-2021-11-26/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/china/nicaragua-breaks-ties-with-taiwan-switches-allegiance-beijing-2021-12-09/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-bans-nicaragua-officials-entering-united-states-2021-11-16/", "https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/As-China-campaigns-to-cut-off-Taiwan-Honduras-poised-to-flip-next", "https://thehill.com/policy/international/585253-nicaragua-breaks-diplomatic-relations-with-taiwan-recognizes-chinese", "https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/top-ally-incoming-honduran-president-casts-doubt-initiating-china-ties-2021-12-02/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_term=The%20Reuters%20Daily%20Briefing&utm_content=3-12-21&utm_campaign=3-12-21", "https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/politics/1803027-taiwan-says-outgoing-honduran-president-to-visit-island"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2021-10-27 | 1.0 | [["2021-10-29", 0.14], ["2021-10-29", 0.07], ["2021-10-29", 0.14], ["2021-10-29", 0.195], ["2021-10-30", 0.25], ["2021-10-30", 0.255], ["2021-10-30", 0.25], ["2021-10-30", 0.195], ["2021-10-31", 0.14], ["2021-10-31", 0.095], ["2021-10-31", 0.14], ["2021-10-31", 0.195], ["2021-11-01", 0.15], ["2021-11-01", 0.15], ["2021-11-01", 0.15], ["2021-11-02", 0.135], ["2021-11-03", 0.135], ["2021-11-03", 0.15], ["2021-11-03", 0.17], ["2021-11-03", 0.17], ["2021-11-04", 0.17], ["2021-11-04", 0.17], ["2021-11-04", 0.195], ["2021-11-05", 0.27], ["2021-11-05", 0.445], ["2021-11-05", 0.555], ["2021-11-06", 0.55], ["2021-11-06", 0.55], ["2021-11-06", 0.56], ["2021-11-06", 0.56], ["2021-11-07", 0.6], ["2021-11-07", 0.6], ["2021-11-09", 0.58], ["2021-11-09", 0.58], ["2021-11-09", 0.49], ["2021-11-09", 0.49], ["2021-11-10", 0.5], ["2021-11-10", 0.56], ["2021-11-10", 0.58], ["2021-11-10", 0.58], ["2021-11-11", 0.53], ["2021-11-11", 0.58], ["2021-11-12", 0.58], ["2021-11-12", 0.58], ["2021-11-13", 0.58], ["2021-11-13", 0.6], ["2021-11-13", 0.6], ["2021-11-14", 0.6], ["2021-11-17", 0.56], ["2021-11-17", 0.56], ["2021-11-18", 0.53], ["2021-11-22", 0.5], ["2021-11-23", 0.5], ["2021-11-23", 0.5], ["2021-11-23", 0.5], ["2021-11-26", 0.5], ["2021-11-27", 0.5], ["2021-11-28", 0.5], ["2021-11-28", 0.53], ["2021-11-28", 0.595], ["2021-11-28", 0.56], ["2021-11-29", 0.56], ["2021-11-29", 0.63], ["2021-11-29", 0.56], ["2021-11-30", 0.63], ["2021-11-30", 0.63], ["2021-11-30", 0.63], ["2021-12-01", 0.63], ["2021-12-01", 0.65], ["2021-12-01", 0.58], ["2021-12-01", 0.65], ["2021-12-02", 0.69], ["2021-12-02", 0.625], ["2021-12-02", 0.625], ["2021-12-02", 0.625], ["2021-12-03", 0.69], ["2021-12-03", 0.73], ["2021-12-03", 0.73], ["2021-12-03", 0.6], ["2021-12-03", 0.58], ["2021-12-04", 0.58], ["2021-12-04", 0.58], ["2021-12-05", 0.58], ["2021-12-05", 0.58], ["2021-12-06", 0.58], ["2021-12-06", 0.55], ["2021-12-09", 0.55], ["2021-12-09", 0.55]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2172 | True |
2023-01-01 | Before 1 January 2023, will China and/or a host country officially announce an agreement for the establishment of a Chinese military base in an African country besides Djibouti? | binary |
<p>China's only military base in Africa is in the country of Djibouti, but it is looking at possible bases in other African countries (<a href="https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/us-general-china-has-10-year-contract-for-first-overseas-military-base/" target="_blank">Diplomat</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/middle-east-africa-china-business-government-and-politics-24f774a952eaabcb38d2b25380b61a62" target="_blank">AP</a>). Military bases for civilian or mixed-use military and civilian purposes would count (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-argentina-china-insight-idUSKCN1PP0I2" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). Public disclosure of ongoing negotiations would not be sufficient to resolve the question as "yes" (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-33115502" target="_blank">BBC</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-01-01 | gjopen | ["https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-25/australia-pm-reacts-china-solomon-islands-draft-military/100938958", "https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/", "https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/china-seeks-atlantic-ocean-military-base/", "https://www.stripes.com/theaters/africa/2021-12-06/china-military-guinea-djibouti-africom-3875711.html", "https://asiatimes.com/2022/02/chinas-submarine-diplomacy-reaching-deep-and-wide/", "https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3161852/chinese-foreign-minister-set-3-nation-tour-east-africa-beijing", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-60896824", "https://www.voanews.com/a/voa-exclusive-us-africom-commander-says-russian-mercenaries-in-mali/6406371.html", "https://maritimecyprus.com/2022/01/13/icc-imb-annual-report-2021-world-wide-incidents-of-piracy-and-armed-robbery-against-ships/", "https://twitter.com/search?q=china%20military%20base&src=typed_query", "https://www.voanews.com/a/voa-interview-africom-s-general-stephen-townsend/6490059.html", "https://www.icc-ccs.org/piracy-reporting-centre/live-piracy-map", "https://ecfr.eu/article/chinas-new-military-base-in-africa-what-it-means-for-europe-and-america/", "https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/china/china-vying-to-set-up-military-base-on-africas-atlantic-coast-reveals-us-intel.html", "https://maritimecyprus.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/2021-Annual-IMB-Piracy-Report.pdf", "https://www.newsnow.co.uk/h/", "https://www.icc-ccs.org/index.php/piracy-reporting-centre/prone-areas-and-warnings", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7SziUoeVpk", "https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/2969935/general-says-china-is-seeking-a-naval-base-in-west-africa", "https://www.theafricareport.com/165553/africa-what-does-chinese-foreign-minister-wang-yis-tour-signify/", "https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/27/middleeast/china-middle-east-uae-analysis-cmd-intl/index.html", "https://chinaafricaproject.com/2022/03/02/equatorial-guineas-new-cooperation-agreement-with-china-could-be-sending-a-message", "https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/why-equatorial-guinea-may-host-china-s-first-atlantic-naval-base", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1366355", "https://eos.com/blog/free-satellite-imagery-sources/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2021-10-28 | 0.0 | [["2021-10-29", 0.25], ["2021-10-30", 0.165], ["2021-10-30", 0.12666666666666668], ["2021-10-30", 0.0975], ["2021-10-30", 0.078], ["2021-10-30", 0.10666666666666667], ["2021-10-30", 0.12], ["2021-10-31", 0.20625], ["2021-10-31", 0.18333333333333332], ["2021-10-31", 0.18], ["2021-10-31", 0.156], ["2021-10-31", 0.151], ["2021-10-31", 0.154], ["2021-10-31", 0.202], ["2021-10-31", 0.302], ["2021-10-31", 0.278], ["2021-10-31", 0.279], ["2021-11-01", 0.266], ["2021-11-01", 0.205], ["2021-11-01", 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["2022-12-30", 0.0223], ["2022-12-31", 0.0109], ["2023-01-01", 0.0109], ["2023-01-01", 0.0109]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2176 | True |
2023-08-01 | Will all seven states that share the Colorado River Basin sign a proposal to the Bureau of Reclamation agreeing on Colorado River water usage cuts before 1 August 2023? | binary |
<p>On 31 January 2023, six of the seven states (California didn't participate) that share the Colorado River Basin submitted a proposal to cut back on water usage from the river to help ensure that minimum levels in reservoirs on the river are maintained (<a href="https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2023/01/31/states-agree-to-cut-water-usage-from-Colorado-River/5271675162984/" target="_blank">UPI</a>, <a href="https://www.kunc.org/environment/2023-01-31/six-states-agree-on-a-proposal-for-colorado-river-cutbacks-california-has-a-counter" target="_blank">NPR - Northern Colorado</a>, <a href="https://www.snwa.com/assets/pdf/seis-letter.pdf" target="_blank">Southern Nevada Water Authority</a>). California offered its own proposal, but there is no consensus among the seven states (<a href="https://apnews.com/article/politics-california-colorado-river-climate-and-environment-d9f1c7c0dbb1633ae74782d23ea9b78a" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/3839790-california-submits-separate-colorado-river-usage-plan/" target="_blank">The Hill</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 20 February 2023</span>: All seven states must sign the same proposal for it to count.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-08-01 | gjopen | ["https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/31/us/california-water-proposal-colorado-river-climate/index.html", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L9zFTsFFcWc", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/11/us/colorado-river-water-cuts-federal-analysis-climate/index.html", "https://thehill.com/policy/equilibrium-sustainability/3938291-biden-administration-announces-343-million-for-tribal-water-resources-colorado-river-conservation/", "https://www.kunc.org/news/2023-04-20/with-no-clear-path-for-water-legislation-lawmakers-want-to-create-a-new-task-force", "https://phys.org/news/2023-04-drought-ravaged-colorado-river-relief-long-term.html", "https://us.cnn.com/2023/05/17/us/colorado-river-deal-lake-mead-climate/index.html", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/05/22/colorado-river-water-conservation-deal-states/", "https://documents.ncsl.org/wwwncsl/About-State-Legislatures/2023_session_calendar_1.pdf", "https://www.doi.gov/sites/doi.gov/files/seven-states-letter-5-22-2023.pdf", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/22/us/colorado-river-lake-mead-water-deal-climate/index.html", "https://apple.news/AoIaaV2rHRsaiONMCxG_sdQ", "https://www.doi.gov/pressreleases/biden-harris-administration-announces-historic-consensus-system-conservation-proposal", "https://edition.cnn.com/2023/04/11/us/colorado-river-water-cuts-federal-analysis-climate/index.html", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/05/17/water-rights-colorado-river-near-deal/", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/17/us/colorado-river-deal-lake-mead-climate/index.html", "https://www.azmirror.com/2023/05/30/colorado-river-agreement-punts-on-drastic-cuts-and-difficult-negotiations/", "https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/news-release/4480", "https://www.5280.com/8-questions-with-new-colorado-river-commissioner-rebecca-mitchell/", "https://www.doi.gov/sites/doi.gov/files/lower-basin-plan-letter-5-22-2023.pdf", "https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/31/us/california-water-proposal-colorado-river-climate/index.html", "https://azcapitoltimes.com/news/2023/04/21/feds-apply-pressure-for-water-deal/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-states-reach-colorado-river-water-conservation-deal-interior-dept-2023-05-22/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/11/climate/colorado-river-water-cuts-drought.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/11/climate/colorado-river-water-cuts-drought.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2023-02-17 | 0.0 | [["2023-02-17", 0.7], ["2023-02-17", 0.42], ["2023-02-17", 0.28], ["2023-02-18", 0.3475], ["2023-02-18", 0.458], ["2023-02-18", 0.42], ["2023-02-18", 0.36], ["2023-02-18", 0.315], ["2023-02-18", 0.3211], ["2023-02-18", 0.309], ["2023-02-18", 0.29], ["2023-02-18", 0.29], ["2023-02-18", 0.2758], ["2023-02-18", 0.2623], ["2023-02-19", 0.2436], ["2023-02-19", 0.2273], ["2023-02-19", 0.2163], ["2023-02-19", 0.2182], ["2023-02-20", 0.2111], ["2023-02-20", 0.2053], ["2023-02-20", 0.205], ["2023-02-20", 0.2038], ["2023-02-20", 0.2005], ["2023-02-20", 0.1814], ["2023-02-21", 0.1625], ["2023-02-21", 0.1676], ["2023-02-21", 0.1414], ["2023-02-21", 0.1495], ["2023-02-21", 0.1476], ["2023-02-21", 0.1548], ["2023-02-21", 0.1514], ["2023-02-21", 0.15], ["2023-02-21", 0.1457], ["2023-02-21", 0.15], ["2023-02-21", 0.148], ["2023-02-21", 0.155], ["2023-02-21", 0.1638], ["2023-02-21", 0.1604], ["2023-02-21", 0.1604], ["2023-02-21", 0.156], ["2023-02-22", 0.1519], ["2023-02-22", 0.1763], ["2023-02-22", 0.1679], ["2023-02-22", 0.1683], ["2023-02-22", 0.1616], ["2023-02-22", 0.1746], ["2023-02-22", 0.1719], ["2023-02-23", 0.1657], ["2023-02-24", 0.1581], ["2023-02-24", 0.1367], ["2023-02-24", 0.1533], ["2023-02-24", 0.1639], ["2023-02-25", 0.15], ["2023-02-25", 0.1447], ["2023-02-25", 0.1442], ["2023-02-25", 0.1432], ["2023-02-25", 0.1305], ["2023-02-25", 0.129], ["2023-02-26", 0.1265], ["2023-02-27", 0.1295], ["2023-02-28", 0.1295], ["2023-02-28", 0.162], ["2023-03-01", 0.171], ["2023-03-02", 0.1757], ["2023-03-04", 0.1776], ["2023-03-05", 0.1824], ["2023-03-06", 0.18], ["2023-03-06", 0.1786], ["2023-03-07", 0.1895], ["2023-03-07", 0.1895], ["2023-03-09", 0.1691], ["2023-03-11", 0.1686], ["2023-03-12", 0.1686], ["2023-03-13", 0.1677], ["2023-03-13", 0.1664], ["2023-03-13", 0.1664], ["2023-03-14", 0.1641], ["2023-03-14", 0.1873], ["2023-03-14", 0.1895], ["2023-03-14", 0.1964], ["2023-03-15", 0.1964], ["2023-03-16", 0.1977], ["2023-03-16", 0.1982], ["2023-03-18", 0.207], ["2023-03-19", 0.2122], ["2023-03-20", 0.2148], ["2023-03-20", 0.2148], ["2023-03-21", 0.217], ["2023-03-21", 0.2174], ["2023-03-21", 0.1978], ["2023-03-21", 0.1938], ["2023-03-23", 0.1808], ["2023-03-25", 0.1763], ["2023-03-26", 0.1763], ["2023-03-27", 0.1733], ["2023-03-28", 0.1438], ["2023-03-29", 0.1463], ["2023-04-01", 0.1492], ["2023-04-02", 0.1492], ["2023-04-03", 0.1488], ["2023-04-05", 0.1488], ["2023-04-06", 0.1454], ["2023-04-07", 0.1429], ["2023-04-10", 0.1338], ["2023-04-11", 0.135], ["2023-04-11", 0.1471], ["2023-04-12", 0.1658], ["2023-04-12", 0.1867], ["2023-04-13", 0.1892], ["2023-04-15", 0.1892], ["2023-04-17", 0.1871], ["2023-04-19", 0.1863], ["2023-04-19", 0.2196], ["2023-04-19", 0.2196], ["2023-04-19", 0.2179], ["2023-04-21", 0.2225], ["2023-04-25", 0.2225], ["2023-04-26", 0.2208], ["2023-04-26", 0.2188], ["2023-04-27", 0.2233], ["2023-04-27", 0.2067], ["2023-04-28", 0.2052], ["2023-05-02", 0.2032], ["2023-05-05", 0.2032], ["2023-05-09", 0.2004], ["2023-05-14", 0.1996], ["2023-05-15", 0.1996], ["2023-05-15", 0.2116], ["2023-05-17", 0.2276], ["2023-05-17", 0.2368], ["2023-05-17", 0.2392], ["2023-05-17", 0.2508], ["2023-05-18", 0.2668], ["2023-05-19", 0.2692], ["2023-05-22", 0.2852], ["2023-05-22", 0.3212], ["2023-05-22", 0.3276], ["2023-05-22", 0.3464], ["2023-05-22", 0.3715], ["2023-05-22", 0.3842], ["2023-05-22", 0.4212], ["2023-05-22", 0.4419], ["2023-05-23", 0.4435], ["2023-05-23", 0.4773], ["2023-05-23", 0.4758], ["2023-05-23", 0.4777], ["2023-05-23", 0.5142], ["2023-05-23", 0.5219], ["2023-05-23", 0.5319], ["2023-05-24", 0.555], ["2023-05-24", 0.5877], ["2023-05-24", 0.5888], ["2023-05-24", 0.6242], ["2023-05-24", 0.6585], ["2023-05-25", 0.6635], ["2023-05-25", 0.6685], ["2023-05-26", 0.6677], ["2023-05-27", 0.6296], ["2023-05-27", 0.6119], ["2023-05-27", 0.6004], ["2023-05-27", 0.6004], ["2023-05-27", 0.5812], ["2023-05-27", 0.5696], ["2023-05-29", 0.5485], ["2023-05-30", 0.5485], ["2023-05-31", 0.5369], ["2023-05-31", 0.5323], ["2023-05-31", 0.5669], ["2023-05-31", 0.5285], ["2023-06-02", 0.5285], ["2023-06-03", 0.5138], ["2023-06-04", 0.4754], ["2023-06-04", 0.475], ["2023-06-04", 0.4381], ["2023-06-04", 0.4158], ["2023-06-04", 0.4127], ["2023-06-05", 0.3985], ["2023-06-05", 0.36], ["2023-06-05", 0.3596], ["2023-06-05", 0.3215], ["2023-06-06", 0.3204], ["2023-06-06", 0.3042], ["2023-06-07", 0.2673], ["2023-06-08", 0.2673], ["2023-06-08", 0.2538], ["2023-06-09", 0.2538], ["2023-06-10", 0.2558], ["2023-06-10", 0.2538], ["2023-06-11", 0.2515], ["2023-06-12", 0.2515], ["2023-06-14", 0.2504], ["2023-06-15", 0.2323], ["2023-06-15", 0.2258], ["2023-06-15", 0.2242], ["2023-06-16", 0.2242], ["2023-06-17", 0.2227], ["2023-06-18", 0.2223], ["2023-06-19", 0.2185], ["2023-06-20", 0.2135], ["2023-06-20", 0.2096], ["2023-06-22", 0.2096], ["2023-06-22", 0.2092], ["2023-06-23", 0.2073], ["2023-06-28", 0.2035], ["2023-06-28", 0.2015], ["2023-06-29", 0.1981], ["2023-07-01", 0.1923], ["2023-07-03", 0.1889], ["2023-07-04", 0.1885], ["2023-07-04", 0.1881], ["2023-07-05", 0.1826], ["2023-07-05", 0.1822], ["2023-07-05", 0.1815], ["2023-07-07", 0.1804], ["2023-07-07", 0.1796], ["2023-07-07", 0.1785], ["2023-07-09", 0.1725], ["2023-07-09", 0.1714], ["2023-07-10", 0.1704], ["2023-07-10", 0.1454], ["2023-07-11", 0.145], ["2023-07-11", 0.1164], ["2023-07-11", 0.1104], ["2023-07-12", 0.1086], ["2023-07-13", 0.1082], ["2023-07-13", 0.1061], ["2023-07-17", 0.0979], ["2023-07-17", 0.0945], ["2023-07-18", 0.0945], ["2023-07-19", 0.0934], ["2023-07-19", 0.0931], ["2023-07-20", 0.0914], ["2023-07-22", 0.081], ["2023-07-22", 0.0807], ["2023-07-23", 0.0803], ["2023-07-23", 0.0797], ["2023-07-23", 0.0762], ["2023-07-24", 0.0762], ["2023-07-25", 0.0759], ["2023-07-26", 0.0755], ["2023-07-27", 0.0514], ["2023-07-27", 0.0424], ["2023-07-27", 0.0421], ["2023-07-27", 0.0748], ["2023-07-27", 0.0748], ["2023-07-27", 0.0741], ["2023-07-27", 0.0741], ["2023-07-28", 0.0734], ["2023-07-28", 0.0493], ["2023-07-28", 0.049], ["2023-07-30", 0.0486], ["2023-07-30", 0.0486], ["2023-07-31", 0.0486], ["2023-08-01", 0.0486]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2768 | True |
2023-05-09 | Will the unadjusted Consumer Price Index (CPI) value for coffee in April 2023 be higher than it was in February 2023? | binary |
<p>The question will be suspended on 9 May 2023 and the outcome determined using data for February 2023 and April 2023 as reported when April 2023 data are first published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), expected in May 2023 (<a href="https://www.bls.gov/cpi/data.htm" target="_blank">BLS</a>). To retrieve the data via the BLS CPI page, click "One Screen" for "All Urban Consumers (Current Series)." In the new window that opens, select "U.S. city average" under "Select an Area," select "Coffee" under "Select one or more Items," and leave only "Not Seasonally Adjusted" selected under "Select Seasonal Adjustment." As of 6 March 2023, the unadjusted CPI value for coffee in April 2022 was 222.449.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-05-10 | gjopen | ["https://www.euromonitor.com/article/an-outlook-for-retail-prices-of-coffee-and-tea-for-2023", "https://www.theice.com/products/15/Coffee-C-Futures", "https://icocoffee.org/documents/I-CIP.pdf", "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf", "https://intelligence.coffee/2023/01/coffee-prices-falling-2023/", "https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Coffee%20Semi-annual_Sao%20Paulo%20ATO_Brazil_BR2022-0060.pdf", "https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/14/cpi-inflation-february-2023-.html", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SEFP01", "https://knoema.de/infographics/qemlhre/u-s-inflation-trends-like-coffee-get-ready-to-pay-more", "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1v4mTOdPSQkCh7F_78b6YaKenIWeXhLLc/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=108710563452072341329&rtpof=true&sd=true", "https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coffee", "https://drwakefield.com/market-reports/coffee-market-fortnightly-report-20-02-2023/", "https://icocoffee.org/", "https://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2023-03-06 | 0.0 | [["2023-03-08", 1.0], ["2023-03-08", 1.0], ["2023-03-08", 0.9267], ["2023-03-08", 0.845], ["2023-03-08", 0.676], ["2023-03-09", 0.68], ["2023-03-09", 0.6771], ["2023-03-09", 0.6975], ["2023-03-09", 0.6867], ["2023-03-10", 0.697], ["2023-03-10", 0.7245], ["2023-03-10", 0.7042], ["2023-03-10", 0.7192], ["2023-03-11", 0.7164], ["2023-03-11", 0.712], ["2023-03-11", 0.6788], ["2023-03-11", 0.6771], ["2023-03-12", 0.667], ["2023-03-13", 0.613], ["2023-03-13", 0.609], ["2023-03-14", 0.604], ["2023-03-14", 0.636], ["2023-03-15", 0.646], ["2023-03-15", 0.646], ["2023-03-15", 0.67], ["2023-03-15", 0.669], ["2023-03-15", 0.684], ["2023-03-15", 0.624], ["2023-03-16", 0.607], ["2023-03-16", 0.5836], ["2023-03-16", 0.6055], ["2023-03-16", 0.6217], ["2023-03-16", 0.5815], ["2023-03-17", 0.5425], ["2023-03-18", 0.53], ["2023-03-18", 0.5175], ["2023-03-19", 0.4717], ["2023-03-19", 0.4815], ["2023-03-19", 0.4185], ["2023-03-19", 0.4246], ["2023-03-20", 0.4492], ["2023-03-20", 0.4485], ["2023-03-21", 0.45], ["2023-03-21", 0.5179], ["2023-03-21", 0.5179], ["2023-03-21", 0.565], ["2023-03-21", 0.5643], ["2023-03-22", 0.5333], ["2023-03-23", 0.55], ["2023-03-24", 0.5588], ["2023-03-24", 0.5688], ["2023-03-24", 0.6131], ["2023-03-25", 0.6271], ["2023-03-25", 0.6329], ["2023-03-25", 0.6394], ["2023-03-25", 0.6428], ["2023-03-26", 0.6511], ["2023-03-27", 0.6522], ["2023-03-28", 0.655], ["2023-03-29", 0.6389], ["2023-03-30", 0.6442], ["2023-03-30", 0.6311], ["2023-03-30", 0.6345], ["2023-03-31", 0.646], ["2023-04-01", 0.646], ["2023-04-02", 0.65], ["2023-04-03", 0.641], ["2023-04-05", 0.634], ["2023-04-05", 0.6433], ["2023-04-05", 0.6419], ["2023-04-05", 0.6132], ["2023-04-06", 0.6086], ["2023-04-11", 0.6141], ["2023-04-11", 0.6141], ["2023-04-12", 0.6459], ["2023-04-12", 0.6486], ["2023-04-12", 0.6486], ["2023-04-13", 0.6627], ["2023-04-13", 0.6455], ["2023-04-13", 0.6455], ["2023-04-13", 0.65], ["2023-04-13", 0.6532], ["2023-04-14", 0.6623], ["2023-04-17", 0.6617], ["2023-04-17", 0.6591], ["2023-04-18", 0.6622], ["2023-04-19", 0.6635], ["2023-04-19", 0.6692], ["2023-04-19", 0.665], ["2023-04-19", 0.6692], ["2023-04-21", 0.6796], ["2023-04-23", 0.6852], ["2023-04-27", 0.6868], ["2023-04-27", 0.6788], ["2023-04-27", 0.6788], ["2023-04-28", 0.6628], ["2023-04-28", 0.6612], ["2023-04-29", 0.6642], ["2023-04-29", 0.6642], ["2023-05-02", 0.6677], ["2023-05-03", 0.6692], ["2023-05-03", 0.6577], ["2023-05-04", 0.6635], ["2023-05-04", 0.6574], ["2023-05-04", 0.6633], ["2023-05-05", 0.6874], ["2023-05-06", 0.6922], ["2023-05-06", 0.6933], ["2023-05-08", 0.73], ["2023-05-09", 0.7389], ["2023-05-09", 0.7396], ["2023-05-09", 0.7433], ["2023-05-09", 0.7254], ["2023-05-09", 0.7254]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2784 | True |
2022-11-08 | Before 8 November 2022, will American basketball player Brittney Griner leave Russia? | binary |
<p>Amid the ongoing war in Ukraine, the US is reportedly negotiating for the release of Brittney Griner and other Americans imprisoned in Russia (<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/05/europe/griner-russia-prisoner-swap-lavrov-intl-hnk/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-prisoner-swap-griner-whelan-russia-ambassador/story?id=88039193" target="_blank">ABC News</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2022-11-08 | gjopen | ["https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/10/25/world/russia-ukraine-war-news", "https://www.golosameriki.com/a/biden-griner-developments/6786699.html", "https://apnews.com/article/brittney-griner-sports-phoenix-mercury-government-and-politics-e9eb8fbe921f4784fe146becaae05c47)?", "https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/16/politics/joe-biden-brittney-griner-and-paul-whelan-families-meeting", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/28/world/europe/prisoner-swaps-exchanges-us.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/03/world/europe/brittney-griner-russia-us.html?searchResultPosition=1", "https://amp.championat.com/basketball/news-4866225-advokaty-brittni-grajner-predstavili-informaciyu-po-predstoyaschim-slushaniyam-po-apellyacii.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1520346", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/15/world/europe/biden-brittney-griner-paul-whelan.html?campaign_id=2&emc=edit_th_20220916&instance_id=72067&nl=todaysheadlines&regi_id=54222971&segment_id=107203&user_id=9c6bc82f1d7e69dac5b2dde75ca776a7", "https://news.yahoo.com/americans-griner-whelan-may-gain-203824550.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9uZXdzLmdvb2dsZS5jb20v&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAB2AZt0Sy5DegnEBJc7a1pisjXkfCOY2igz2oFrHHoWv3C3dIWzo5j7d3Pm-FZh7xbBePWw9C_54FIFEqEA2DX5VC0J7EHTIyhVjWUNieREEi0QRZj832WM-_UJ0WhglJQQAtOkhEmjMjDVsj2KR4-WF68fmRkKUwZwZ1ISEo7RE", "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/brittney-griners-appeal-rejected-russian-court-upholds-9-year-sentence", "https://www.npr.org/2022/09/28/1125578884/wrongful-detention-report-foley-foundation", "https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/putin-cancer", "https://www.championat.com/basketball/news-4822951-predstavitel-belogo-doma-zhdyom-chto-rossiya-primet-predlozhenie-po-brittni-grajner.html?utm_source=copypaste", "https://www.cbssports.com/wnba/news/russia-confirms-it-seeks-convicted-arms-dealer-in-potential-prisoner-swap-for-wnba-star-brittney-griner/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1494203", "https://www.voanews.com/a/russian-court-sets-brittney-griner-appeal-date-for-october-25-/6774164.html#:~:text=A%20Russian%20court%20on%20Monday,prison%20sentence%20for%20drug%20possession", "https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/3642256-bill-richardson-visits-moscow-amid-griner-whelan-detentions/", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/14/ex-us-official-visits-russia-to-push-for-americans-release", "https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/21/politics/russia-ukraine-prisoner-swap/index.html", "https://www.thehill.com/homenews/administration/3642256-bill-richardson-visits-moscow-amid-griner-wheelman-detentions/amp/", "https://apnews.com/article/0baf45ba608ec4231642c3d0fe3d1522", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/09/world/europe/bill-richardson-brittney-griner-paul-whelan.html", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63135831", "https://www.bloodyelbow.com/2022/9/21/23365441/roy-jones-jr-mr-putin-secure-release-basketball-star-brittney-griner-boxing-politics"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2022-08-11 | 0.0 | [["2022-08-12", 0.5], ["2022-08-12", 0.25], ["2022-08-12", 0.16666666666666666], ["2022-08-12", 0.09333333333333334], ["2022-08-12", 0.3075], ["2022-08-12", 0.252], ["2022-08-12", 0.28], ["2022-08-12", 0.38285714285714284], ["2022-08-12", 0.35], ["2022-08-12", 0.3111111111111111], ["2022-08-12", 0.284], ["2022-08-12", 0.379], ["2022-08-12", 0.403], ["2022-08-12", 0.402], ["2022-08-12", 0.441], ["2022-08-13", 0.449], ["2022-08-13", 0.45], ["2022-08-13", 0.357], ["2022-08-13", 0.358], ["2022-08-13", 0.355], ["2022-08-13", 0.355], ["2022-08-13", 0.362], ["2022-08-13", 0.36], ["2022-08-13", 0.322], ["2022-08-13", 0.41], ["2022-08-13", 0.48], ["2022-08-13", 0.494], ["2022-08-13", 0.399], ["2022-08-13", 0.344], ["2022-08-13", 0.353], 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["2022-11-06", 0.0104], ["2022-11-06", 0.0102], ["2022-11-07", 0.0096], ["2022-11-07", 0.0182], ["2022-11-07", 0.018], ["2022-11-07", 0.0178], ["2022-11-07", 0.0178], ["2022-11-07", 0.0184], ["2022-11-07", 0.018], ["2022-11-07", 0.018], ["2022-11-07", 0.018], ["2022-11-07", 0.0178], ["2022-11-08", 0.0078], ["2022-11-08", 0.0078]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2512 | True |
2024-01-01 | Before 1 January 2024, will negotiations on a China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) free trade agreement be completed? | binary |
<p>China and the GCC began negotiations for a free trade agreement in 2005, and seeking an agreement was discussed on President Xi Jinping's December 2022 visit to Saudi Arabia (<a href="http://fta.mofcom.gov.cn/enarticle/engcc/engccnews/200911/1638_1.html" target="_blank">China Ministry of Commerce</a>, <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/china-s-xi-promotes-mideast-security-energy-ties-at-saudi-summits-/6870507.html" target="_blank">Voice of America</a>, <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/china-arab-summit-future-gulf-table" target="_blank">Middle East Eye</a>, <a href="https://www.gcc-sg.org/en-us/AboutGCC/MemberStates/pages/Home.aspx" target="_blank">GCC</a>). The signing of an FTA or the announcement of an agreement in principle (see EU-Mercosur announcement) would count, and ratification would be immaterial (e.g., <a href="https://www.mfat.govt.nz/en/trade/free-trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements-concluded-but-not-in-force/regional-comprehensive-economic-partnership-rcep/rcep-overview" target="_blank">New Zeeland Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48807161" target="_blank">BBC</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2024-01-01 | gjopen | ["https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/apr/03/oil-price-surges-after-surprise-opec-production-cut", "https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/03/china-settles-first-lng-trade-yuan-uae-deal", "http://melbourne.china-consulate.gov.cn/eng/zyxw/202304/t20230410_11056812.htm", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-seeks-u-s-security-pledges-nuclear-help-for-peace-with-israel-cd47baaf", "https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202212/t20221210_10988406.html", "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7304502/", "https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/america-locked-china-cold-war-win", "https://defence24.pl/sily-zbrojne/rosyjski-okret-w-arabii-saudyjskiej", "https://thediplomat.com/2023/01/beyond-oil-a-new-phase-in-china-middle-east-engagement/", "https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Biden-Harris-Administrations-National-Security-Strategy-10.2022.pdf", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/29/saudi-partners-with-china-led-security-bloc-as-ties-grow", "https://breakingdefense.com/2022/02/uae-agrees-to-buy-its-first-chinese-fixed-wing-military-aircraft-j-15/?amp=1", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/18/how-will-raisis-beijing-visit-impact-iran-china-ties", "https://www.mei.edu/publications/iranian-saudi-detente-and-asianization-persian-gulf-china-fills-gap", "https://agsiw.org/programs/china-gcc-fta-negotiations-and-prospects-for-broader-economic-collaboration/", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/11/what-to-expect-after-iran-saudi-arabia-agree-to-restore-ties", "https://www.theafricareport.com/288965/us-congress-targets-south-africa-over-deepening-ties-with-", "https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Biden-Harris-Administrations-National", "https://www.energyintel.com/00000185-c544-de58-a3ef-fddf03880000", "https://fortune.com/2023/03/08/xi-jinping-containment-suppression-challenges-china-cold-war-2-white-house/amp/", "https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3213783/china-and-uae-team-build-abu-dhabi-space-tech-centre", "https://space24.pl/polityka-kosmiczna/swiat/ksiezycowa-misja-chin-bez-wsparcia-zjednoczonych-emiratow-arabskich", "https://www.state.gov/joint-statement-by-the-united-states-and-gulf-cooperation-council-members-on-iran/", "https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2023/03/09/iran-upgrades-perceptions-of-saudi-threat/", "https://breakingdefense.com/2023/02/as-us-worries-over-beijings-influence-in-middle-east-chinese-defense-firms-flock-to-idex-2023/"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2022-12-30 | 0.0 | [["2022-12-30", 1.0], ["2022-12-30", 0.95], ["2022-12-30", 0.6467], ["2022-12-31", 0.735], ["2022-12-31", 0.788], ["2022-12-31", 0.6817], ["2022-12-31", 0.5986], ["2022-12-31", 0.6488], ["2022-12-31", 0.5767], ["2022-12-31", 0.5767], ["2023-01-01", 0.519], ["2023-01-01", 0.5118], ["2023-01-01", 0.5118], ["2023-01-01", 0.49], ["2023-01-01", 0.4908], ["2023-01-01", 0.4843], ["2023-01-01", 0.4843], ["2023-01-01", 0.5557], ["2023-01-02", 0.4843], ["2023-01-02", 0.4236], ["2023-01-03", 0.3883], ["2023-01-03", 0.3883], ["2023-01-03", 0.3509], ["2023-01-03", 0.376], ["2023-01-03", 0.376], ["2023-01-03", 0.375], ["2023-01-05", 0.375], ["2023-01-05", 0.367], ["2023-01-06", 0.342], ["2023-01-08", 0.331], ["2023-01-09", 0.331], ["2023-01-14", 0.363], ["2023-01-16", 0.353], ["2023-01-17", 0.352], ["2023-01-19", 0.332], ["2023-01-20", 0.412], ["2023-01-23", 0.411], ["2023-01-25", 0.411], ["2023-01-27", 0.373], ["2023-01-29", 0.372], ["2023-01-30", 0.377], ["2023-01-31", 0.38], ["2023-02-03", 0.358], ["2023-02-05", 0.358], ["2023-02-21", 0.356], ["2023-02-22", 0.384], ["2023-02-27", 0.375], ["2023-03-05", 0.374], ["2023-03-10", 0.372], ["2023-03-10", 0.359], ["2023-03-11", 0.368], ["2023-03-14", 0.37], ["2023-03-15", 0.371], ["2023-03-16", 0.381], ["2023-03-17", 0.325], ["2023-03-17", 0.332], ["2023-03-20", 0.33], ["2023-03-28", 0.268], ["2023-04-03", 0.287], ["2023-04-07", 0.3336], ["2023-04-09", 0.3427], ["2023-04-13", 0.3673], ["2023-04-14", 0.3609], ["2023-04-16", 0.3642], ["2023-04-18", 0.3667], ["2023-04-24", 0.3667], ["2023-05-03", 0.3667], ["2023-05-03", 0.3933], ["2023-05-04", 0.4058], ["2023-05-04", 0.3958], ["2023-05-12", 0.3958], ["2023-05-16", 0.3917], ["2023-05-21", 0.3917], ["2023-06-13", 0.39], ["2023-06-13", 0.3967], ["2023-06-19", 0.3908], ["2023-06-26", 0.3942], ["2023-06-28", 0.3875], ["2023-07-02", 0.3833], ["2023-07-03", 0.3767], ["2023-07-08", 0.3592], ["2023-07-13", 0.3583], ["2023-07-14", 0.3517], ["2023-07-17", 0.3415], ["2023-07-19", 0.3408], ["2023-07-25", 0.3392], ["2023-07-28", 0.3623], ["2023-07-29", 0.36], ["2023-07-31", 0.3585], ["2023-08-07", 0.3569], ["2023-08-08", 0.3562], ["2023-08-08", 0.3546], ["2023-08-11", 0.3754], ["2023-08-11", 0.3762], ["2023-08-12", 0.3546], ["2023-08-12", 0.3585], ["2023-08-13", 0.3554], ["2023-08-15", 0.3538], ["2023-08-15", 0.3477], ["2023-08-23", 0.3469], ["2023-08-24", 0.3469], ["2023-08-24", 0.3454], ["2023-08-24", 0.3323], ["2023-08-30", 0.3269], ["2023-09-01", 0.3354], ["2023-09-03", 0.32], ["2023-09-09", 0.3092], ["2023-09-10", 0.2862], ["2023-09-10", 0.2854], ["2023-09-15", 0.2823], ["2023-09-15", 0.2621], ["2023-09-16", 0.2307], ["2023-09-19", 0.195], ["2023-09-19", 0.1914], ["2023-09-20", 0.1857], ["2023-09-22", 0.1786], ["2023-09-28", 0.1729], ["2023-09-30", 0.1664], ["2023-10-01", 0.1593], ["2023-10-01", 0.1379], ["2023-10-04", 0.1271], ["2023-10-04", 0.12], ["2023-10-06", 0.1164], ["2023-10-14", 0.1164], ["2023-10-14", 0.1164], ["2023-10-15", 0.1157], ["2023-10-17", 0.1143], ["2023-10-23", 0.1021], ["2023-10-25", 0.1021], ["2023-10-25", 0.1], ["2023-10-27", 0.0986], ["2023-10-28", 0.0986], ["2023-10-31", 0.09], ["2023-11-01", 0.0886], ["2023-11-03", 0.0871], ["2023-11-07", 0.0829], ["2023-11-08", 0.0807], ["2023-11-08", 0.0807], ["2023-11-11", 0.0807], ["2023-11-17", 0.0757], ["2023-11-18", 0.0707], ["2023-11-18", 0.0693], ["2023-11-18", 0.0693], ["2023-11-24", 0.0657], ["2023-11-24", 0.0657], ["2023-11-25", 0.0621], ["2023-11-25", 0.0607], ["2023-11-26", 0.06], ["2023-11-30", 0.0493], ["2023-11-30", 0.0479], ["2023-12-01", 0.0471], ["2023-12-03", 0.0471], ["2023-12-03", 0.0457], ["2023-12-03", 0.045], ["2023-12-03", 0.0443], ["2023-12-05", 0.0336], ["2023-12-06", 0.0329], ["2023-12-07", 0.0329], ["2023-12-08", 0.0321], ["2023-12-11", 0.03], ["2023-12-12", 0.03], ["2023-12-13", 0.0287], ["2023-12-16", 0.022], ["2023-12-16", 0.0193], ["2023-12-23", 0.0193], ["2023-12-25", 0.0193], ["2023-12-26", 0.0193], ["2023-12-29", 0.0193], ["2024-01-01", 0.0193]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2688 | True |
2020-12-01 | Between 15 September 2020 and 30 November 2020, will a country cease to formally recognize Taiwan? | binary |
<p>In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC (<a href="https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&sms=A76B7230ADF29736" target="_blank">Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs</a>). Two countries in Oceania, the Solomon Islands and Kiribati, were the countries to most recently cease to recognize the ROC (<a href="https://www.newsweek.com/who-recognizes-taiwan-two-change-china-1460559" target="_blank">Newsweek</a>).</p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2020-12-01 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2020-09-14 | 0.0 | [["2020-09-15", 0.5], ["2020-09-15", 0.495], ["2020-09-15", 0.5], ["2020-09-15", 0.5], ["2020-09-15", 0.5], ["2020-09-15", 0.495], ["2020-09-15", 0.49], ["2020-09-15", 0.495], ["2020-09-15", 0.495], ["2020-09-15", 0.49], ["2020-09-15", 0.37], ["2020-09-15", 0.215], ["2020-09-15", 0.175], ["2020-09-15", 0.125], ["2020-09-15", 0.05], ["2020-09-15", 0.015], ["2020-09-15", 0.01], ["2020-09-15", 0.01], ["2020-09-15", 0.01], ["2020-09-16", 0.01], ["2020-09-16", 0.01], ["2020-09-16", 0.01], ["2020-09-16", 0.01], ["2020-09-16", 0.03], ["2020-09-16", 0.075], ["2020-09-16", 0.075], ["2020-09-16", 0.1], ["2020-09-16", 0.1], ["2020-09-16", 0.1], ["2020-09-16", 0.1], ["2020-09-16", 0.11], ["2020-09-16", 0.11], ["2020-09-16", 0.16], ["2020-09-16", 0.12], ["2020-09-16", 0.1], ["2020-09-16", 0.1], ["2020-09-16", 0.11], ["2020-09-16", 0.1], ["2020-09-16", 0.1], ["2020-09-16", 0.1], ["2020-09-16", 0.11], ["2020-09-17", 0.1], ["2020-09-17", 0.12], ["2020-09-17", 0.12], ["2020-09-17", 0.12], ["2020-09-17", 0.11], ["2020-09-17", 0.12], ["2020-09-17", 0.1], ["2020-09-17", 0.1], ["2020-09-17", 0.1], ["2020-09-17", 0.09], ["2020-09-17", 0.08], ["2020-09-17", 0.06], ["2020-09-17", 0.06], ["2020-09-17", 0.06], ["2020-09-17", 0.05], ["2020-09-17", 0.05], ["2020-09-17", 0.05], ["2020-09-17", 0.05], ["2020-09-17", 0.05], ["2020-09-17", 0.05], ["2020-09-17", 0.05], ["2020-09-17", 0.05], ["2020-09-17", 0.05], ["2020-09-17", 0.05], ["2020-09-18", 0.05], ["2020-09-18", 0.05], ["2020-09-18", 0.05], ["2020-09-18", 0.05], ["2020-09-18", 0.05], ["2020-09-18", 0.05], ["2020-09-18", 0.05], ["2020-09-18", 0.05], ["2020-09-18", 0.05], ["2020-09-18", 0.05], ["2020-09-18", 0.05], ["2020-09-18", 0.05], ["2020-09-18", 0.07], ["2020-09-18", 0.06], ["2020-09-18", 0.085], ["2020-09-18", 0.095], ["2020-09-18", 0.095], ["2020-09-18", 0.09], ["2020-09-18", 0.09], ["2020-09-18", 0.08], ["2020-09-19", 0.095], ["2020-09-19", 0.1], ["2020-09-19", 0.1], ["2020-09-19", 0.095], ["2020-09-19", 0.08], ["2020-09-19", 0.09], ["2020-09-19", 0.08], ["2020-09-19", 0.085], ["2020-09-19", 0.085], ["2020-09-19", 0.085], ["2020-09-19", 0.09], ["2020-09-19", 0.1], ["2020-09-19", 0.1], ["2020-09-19", 0.1], ["2020-09-19", 0.1], ["2020-09-19", 0.1], ["2020-09-19", 0.1], ["2020-09-19", 0.1], ["2020-09-19", 0.105], 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["2020-11-07", 0.01], ["2020-11-08", 0.01], ["2020-11-08", 0.01], ["2020-11-09", 0.01], ["2020-11-09", 0.01], ["2020-11-09", 0.01], ["2020-11-09", 0.01], ["2020-11-09", 0.01], ["2020-11-10", 0.01], ["2020-11-10", 0.01], ["2020-11-10", 0.01], ["2020-11-11", 0.01], ["2020-11-11", 0.01], ["2020-11-11", 0.01], ["2020-11-11", 0.01], ["2020-11-11", 0.01], ["2020-11-11", 0.01], ["2020-11-11", 0.01], ["2020-11-11", 0.01], ["2020-11-11", 0.01], ["2020-11-11", 0.01], ["2020-11-12", 0.01], ["2020-11-12", 0.01], ["2020-11-12", 0.01], ["2020-11-12", 0.01], ["2020-11-13", 0.01], ["2020-11-13", 0.01], ["2020-11-14", 0.01], ["2020-11-14", 0.01], ["2020-11-14", 0.01], ["2020-11-14", 0.01], ["2020-11-14", 0.01], ["2020-11-14", 0.01], ["2020-11-15", 0.01], ["2020-11-15", 0.01], ["2020-11-15", 0.01], ["2020-11-15", 0.01], ["2020-11-16", 0.01], ["2020-11-16", 0.01], ["2020-11-16", 0.01], ["2020-11-16", 0.01], ["2020-11-16", 0.01], ["2020-11-16", 0.01], ["2020-11-16", 0.01], ["2020-11-16", 0.01], ["2020-11-16", 0.01], ["2020-11-16", 0.01], ["2020-11-16", 0.01], ["2020-11-16", 0.01], ["2020-11-16", 0.01], ["2020-11-17", 0.01], ["2020-11-17", 0.01], ["2020-11-17", 0.01], ["2020-11-17", 0.01], ["2020-11-17", 0.01], ["2020-11-18", 0.01], ["2020-11-18", 0.01], ["2020-11-19", 0.01], ["2020-11-19", 0.01], ["2020-11-19", 0.01], ["2020-11-19", 0.01], ["2020-11-20", 0.01], ["2020-11-20", 0.01], ["2020-11-20", 0.01], ["2020-11-20", 0.01], ["2020-11-21", 0.01], ["2020-11-22", 0.01], ["2020-11-22", 0.01], ["2020-11-23", 0.005], ["2020-11-23", 0.0], ["2020-11-23", 0.0], ["2020-11-24", 0.0], ["2020-11-24", 0.0], ["2020-11-24", 0.005], ["2020-11-24", 0.0], ["2020-11-24", 0.0], ["2020-11-24", 0.0], ["2020-11-24", 0.0], ["2020-11-24", 0.0], ["2020-11-25", 0.0], ["2020-11-25", 0.0], ["2020-11-25", 0.0], ["2020-11-25", 0.0], ["2020-11-25", 0.0], ["2020-11-25", 0.0], ["2020-11-27", 0.0], ["2020-11-27", 0.0], ["2020-11-28", 0.0], ["2020-11-28", 0.0], ["2020-11-28", 0.0], ["2020-11-28", 0.0], ["2020-11-29", 0.0], ["2020-11-29", 0.0], ["2020-11-29", 0.0], ["2020-11-29", 0.0], ["2020-11-30", 0.0], ["2020-11-30", 0.0], ["2020-12-01", 0.0], ["2020-12-01", 0.0], ["2020-12-01", 0.0], ["2020-12-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1783 | True |
2023-04-04 | Will Paul Vallas win Chicago's 2023 mayoral election runoff? | binary |
<p>Mayor Lori Lightfoot failed to reach the top two in Chicago's general election on 28 February 2023, leaving Chicago voters with the choice between Paul Vallas and Brandon Johnson for the office (<a href="https://www.nbcchicago.com/chicago-mayoral-election-2023/what-to-know-about-chicago-mayors-race-runoff-election/3085475/" target="_blank">NBC Chicago</a>, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/first-read/chicago-mayoral-runoff-sets-progressive-vs-moderate-clash-rcna73049" target="_blank">NBC News</a>). The runoff election is scheduled for 4 April 2023 (<a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Mayoral_election_in_Chicago,_Illinois_(2023)" target="_blank">Ballotpedia</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-04-05 | gjopen | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Dog_Coalition", "https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000186-c94c-db60-a3bf-e9fc3ed20000&nname=illinois-playbook&nid=00000150-1596-d4ac-a1d4-179e288b0000&nrid=126646a2-268b-4f58-9d0c-9ecd7c409430&nlid=639163", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/victory-research/", "https://drive.google.com/file/d/1xkT4ygWJgMtK6WuUawWHGX3vR9rUbFOg/view", "https://illinoissunshine.org/mayoral-races/", "https://otc.amciv.com/dashboard", "https://archive.is/m6WS6", "https://www.nbcchicago.com/chicago-mayoral-election-2023/chicago-mayor-poll-johnson-vallas-election/3092656/", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/lake-research-partners/", "https://abc7chicago.com/amp/chicago-mayor-race-polls-paul-vallas-brandon-johnson-election/12939762/", "https://abc7chicago.com/chicago-mayoral-election-runoff-mayor-poll-brandon-johnson/12926010/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Chicago_mayoral_election", "https://ballotpedia.org/Mayoral_election_in_Chicago,_Illinois_(2023", "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/20/us/politics/election-hispanics-asians-voting.html", "https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/03/05/politics/eric-adams-lori-lightfoot-crime-cnntv/index.html", "https://www.fox32chicago.com/election/chicago-mayoral-poll-runoff", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Chicago_mayoral_election#Runoff_polling", "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/03/05/nyregion/election-asians-voting-republicans-nyc.html"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2023-03-03 | 0.0 | [["2023-03-03", 0.8], ["2023-03-03", 0.875], ["2023-03-03", 0.8], ["2023-03-04", 0.6], ["2023-03-04", 0.61], ["2023-03-04", 0.675], ["2023-03-04", 0.6143], ["2023-03-04", 0.6113], ["2023-03-04", 0.5956], ["2023-03-05", 0.5933], ["2023-03-05", 0.604], ["2023-03-05", 0.544], ["2023-03-05", 0.574], ["2023-03-05", 0.5627], ["2023-03-05", 0.5742], ["2023-03-05", 0.5954], ["2023-03-06", 0.6], ["2023-03-06", 0.584], ["2023-03-06", 0.5956], ["2023-03-06", 0.6194], ["2023-03-06", 0.6228], ["2023-03-06", 0.6189], ["2023-03-06", 0.6179], ["2023-03-06", 0.6265], ["2023-03-06", 0.631], ["2023-03-06", 0.6305], ["2023-03-07", 0.6383], ["2023-03-07", 0.6333], ["2023-03-07", 0.6217], ["2023-03-07", 0.605], ["2023-03-07", 0.6039], ["2023-03-07", 0.6044], ["2023-03-07", 0.6072], ["2023-03-07", 0.6056], ["2023-03-07", 0.6053], ["2023-03-08", 0.6074], ["2023-03-08", 0.601], ["2023-03-08", 0.605], ["2023-03-08", 0.5705], ["2023-03-08", 0.5747], ["2023-03-08", 0.5638], ["2023-03-09", 0.5763], ["2023-03-09", 0.5191], ["2023-03-10", 0.5255], ["2023-03-10", 0.53], ["2023-03-11", 0.5127], ["2023-03-11", 0.5258], ["2023-03-12", 0.5458], ["2023-03-12", 0.5433], ["2023-03-12", 0.5475], ["2023-03-14", 0.535], ["2023-03-15", 0.5325], ["2023-03-15", 0.5408], ["2023-03-16", 0.4992], ["2023-03-16", 0.5138], ["2023-03-16", 0.5177], ["2023-03-16", 0.5138], ["2023-03-17", 0.5146], ["2023-03-18", 0.5171], ["2023-03-18", 0.5271], ["2023-03-20", 0.5236], ["2023-03-20", 0.5279], ["2023-03-21", 0.5264], ["2023-03-22", 0.5543], ["2023-03-23", 0.555], ["2023-03-23", 0.545], ["2023-03-23", 0.5486], ["2023-03-24", 0.5464], ["2023-03-26", 0.5607], ["2023-03-26", 0.5657], ["2023-03-27", 0.5686], ["2023-03-27", 0.5936], ["2023-03-28", 0.6043], ["2023-03-28", 0.615], ["2023-03-28", 0.6336], ["2023-03-28", 0.6343], ["2023-03-29", 0.6379], ["2023-03-29", 0.6664], ["2023-03-29", 0.6693], ["2023-03-30", 0.6736], ["2023-03-30", 0.675], ["2023-04-01", 0.6867], ["2023-04-01", 0.6913], ["2023-04-01", 0.6947], ["2023-04-01", 0.6713], ["2023-04-01", 0.6707], ["2023-04-02", 0.6647], ["2023-04-02", 0.668], ["2023-04-03", 0.6606], ["2023-04-03", 0.665], ["2023-04-03", 0.6631], ["2023-04-03", 0.6325], ["2023-04-03", 0.6481], ["2023-04-04", 0.6531], ["2023-04-04", 0.6569], ["2023-04-04", 0.6563], ["2023-04-04", 0.6563]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2780 | True |
2023-08-01 | Will any territory in Crimea that was Russian-controlled before 24 February 2022 cease to be under "Assessed Russian Control" before 1 August 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)? | binary |
<p>Russia seized and annexed Crimea in 2014, but Ukraine may seek to regain the territory as war continues in the country (<a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/inside-crimea-russian-military-annexed-ukraine-retake-putin-rcna72606" target="_blank">NBC News</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/02/22/ukraine-crimea-russia-putin-red-line-00083857" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230404-ukraine-unveils-plan-for-recaptured-crimea-%E2%80%93-but-west-reluctant-to-help" target="_blank">France 24</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (<a href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375" target="_blank">ISW</a>, labeled "The Autonomous Republic of Crimea").</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-08-01 | gjopen | ["https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/06/putin-russian-coup-over-prigozhin-wagner/674522/", "https://reader.foreignaffairs.com/2023/04/13/the-west-needs-a-new-strategy-in-ukraine/content.html", "https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-10-2023", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63192757", "https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/04/ukraine-has-big-plans-to-take-back-crimea-from-putin/", "https://www.google.com/maps/place/Perekopskiy+Peresheyek/@45.8841207,33.6289871,148639m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m6!3m5!1s0x40c18845b2d7181d:0x49200a345d68c3b5!8m2!3d46.0833333!4d33.75!16zL20vMDN5OW1z", "https://www.writinkservices.com/nurs-fpx-4010-assessment-3-interdisciplinary-plan-proposal/", "https://militaryland.net/maps/deployment-map/", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/18/europe/ukraine-counteroffensive-signs-russia-intl-cmd/index.html", "https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1rRKs40IEbGRsV0Fhky25l5OkPJ_vUvQ&ll=46.79283118302841%2C35.82284928567961&z=7", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/06/this-will-be-different-khersons-ruined-villages-come-to-life-with-counteroffensive-preparation", "https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-27-", "https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/04/going-on-offense-ukraine-is-getting-ready-to-hit-putin-hard/", "https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1646592279539339274?s=20", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2023/ukraine-russia-crimea-battle-trenches/", "http://www.bloomberg.com/", "https://tvn24.pl/swiat/ukraina-krym-okopy-na-plazach-druzyny-ochotnicze-w-symferopolu-rosjanie-umacniaja-polwysep-6796301", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MThrhf-YXjU"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2023-04-12 | 0.0 | [["2023-04-12", 0.0], ["2023-04-12", 0.05], ["2023-04-12", 0.0833], ["2023-04-12", 0.3025], ["2023-04-12", 0.285], ["2023-04-12", 0.248], ["2023-04-12", 0.2083], ["2023-04-12", 0.18], ["2023-04-12", 0.1575], ["2023-04-12", 0.14], ["2023-04-12", 0.126], ["2023-04-12", 0.1145], ["2023-04-12", 0.1067], ["2023-04-12", 0.1062], ["2023-04-12", 0.0993], ["2023-04-12", 0.0927], ["2023-04-13", 0.0963], ["2023-04-13", 0.1482], ["2023-04-13", 0.1444], ["2023-04-13", 0.1439], ["2023-04-13", 0.1363], ["2023-04-13", 0.1384], ["2023-04-13", 0.1325], ["2023-04-13", 0.1267], ["2023-04-13", 0.1268], ["2023-04-13", 0.1222], ["2023-04-13", 0.1175], ["2023-04-13", 0.1132], ["2023-04-13", 0.1096], ["2023-04-13", 0.1065], ["2023-04-13", 0.1037], ["2023-04-13", 0.1026], ["2023-04-13", 0.0989], ["2023-04-13", 0.0959], ["2023-04-14", 0.0977], ["2023-04-14", 0.0977], ["2023-04-14", 0.0967], ["2023-04-15", 0.0935], ["2023-04-15", 0.0919], ["2023-04-15", 0.0923], ["2023-04-15", 0.0972], ["2023-04-15", 0.0942], 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["2023-05-30", 0.0903], ["2023-05-30", 0.0876], ["2023-05-31", 0.0873], ["2023-05-31", 0.0873], ["2023-05-31", 0.0915], ["2023-06-01", 0.0915], ["2023-06-01", 0.0918], ["2023-06-01", 0.0918], ["2023-06-02", 0.0912], ["2023-06-02", 0.0909], ["2023-06-03", 0.0906], ["2023-06-05", 0.0776], ["2023-06-05", 0.0791], ["2023-06-06", 0.0785], ["2023-06-06", 0.0788], ["2023-06-08", 0.0788], ["2023-06-08", 0.0788], ["2023-06-08", 0.0788], ["2023-06-08", 0.0788], ["2023-06-09", 0.0776], ["2023-06-09", 0.0776], ["2023-06-09", 0.0959], ["2023-06-09", 0.0694], ["2023-06-09", 0.0694], ["2023-06-10", 0.0689], ["2023-06-10", 0.0691], ["2023-06-11", 0.0691], ["2023-06-11", 0.0686], ["2023-06-11", 0.0692], ["2023-06-12", 0.0692], ["2023-06-12", 0.0697], ["2023-06-12", 0.0697], ["2023-06-12", 0.0692], ["2023-06-12", 0.0694], ["2023-06-13", 0.0683], ["2023-06-13", 0.0683], ["2023-06-13", 0.0642], ["2023-06-14", 0.0639], ["2023-06-14", 0.0622], ["2023-06-14", 0.0624], ["2023-06-14", 0.0611], ["2023-06-15", 0.0608], ["2023-06-16", 0.0608], ["2023-06-17", 0.0605], ["2023-06-17", 0.0597], ["2023-06-17", 0.0597], ["2023-06-18", 0.0597], ["2023-06-18", 0.0597], ["2023-06-18", 0.0522], ["2023-06-20", 0.0527], ["2023-06-20", 0.0522], ["2023-06-20", 0.0519], ["2023-06-20", 0.0519], ["2023-06-20", 0.0519], ["2023-06-20", 0.0519], ["2023-06-21", 0.0654], ["2023-06-21", 0.065], ["2023-06-21", 0.0629], ["2023-06-21", 0.0618], ["2023-06-22", 0.0595], ["2023-06-22", 0.0595], ["2023-06-22", 0.0595], ["2023-06-22", 0.0587], ["2023-06-22", 0.0613], ["2023-06-22", 0.0608], ["2023-06-22", 0.0792], ["2023-06-23", 0.0782], ["2023-06-23", 0.0776], ["2023-06-23", 0.0776], ["2023-06-23", 0.0787], ["2023-06-23", 0.0767], ["2023-06-24", 0.0774], ["2023-06-24", 0.0841], ["2023-06-24", 0.0838], ["2023-06-24", 0.0854], ["2023-06-24", 0.0864], ["2023-06-24", 0.0887], ["2023-06-24", 0.091], ["2023-06-24", 0.0903], ["2023-06-24", 0.0908], ["2023-06-24", 0.0915], ["2023-06-24", 0.0941], ["2023-06-24", 0.0923], ["2023-06-24", 0.0918], ["2023-06-24", 0.0956], ["2023-06-24", 0.0967], ["2023-06-24", 0.1197], ["2023-06-24", 0.1182], ["2023-06-24", 0.1182], ["2023-06-25", 0.111], ["2023-06-25", 0.1085], ["2023-06-26", 0.1082], ["2023-06-26", 0.1121], ["2023-06-27", 0.1118], ["2023-06-28", 0.1095], ["2023-06-28", 0.1108], ["2023-06-28", 0.1108], ["2023-06-28", 0.1078], ["2023-06-28", 0.105], ["2023-06-28", 0.1045], ["2023-06-28", 0.1043], ["2023-06-29", 0.1043], ["2023-06-29", 0.1038], ["2023-06-29", 0.1035], ["2023-06-30", 0.102], ["2023-06-30", 0.1023], ["2023-07-02", 0.102], ["2023-07-02", 0.0993], ["2023-07-02", 0.1003], ["2023-07-02", 0.098], ["2023-07-02", 0.12], ["2023-07-03", 0.1171], ["2023-07-03", 0.1171], ["2023-07-03", 0.1171], ["2023-07-03", 0.1169], ["2023-07-04", 0.1169], ["2023-07-04", 0.1169], ["2023-07-05", 0.1164], ["2023-07-05", 0.1069], ["2023-07-05", 0.1093], ["2023-07-06", 0.1081], ["2023-07-06", 0.1081], ["2023-07-06", 0.1048], ["2023-07-07", 0.1048], ["2023-07-07", 0.1026], ["2023-07-07", 0.1021], ["2023-07-08", 0.1016], ["2023-07-08", 0.1012], ["2023-07-08", 0.1014], ["2023-07-08", 0.1014], ["2023-07-08", 0.1014], ["2023-07-10", 0.0979], ["2023-07-11", 0.0972], ["2023-07-11", 0.095], ["2023-07-12", 0.0932], ["2023-07-12", 0.0907], ["2023-07-13", 0.0905], ["2023-07-13", 0.0905], ["2023-07-14", 0.0893], ["2023-07-14", 0.0893], ["2023-07-14", 0.0898], ["2023-07-14", 0.0905], ["2023-07-14", 0.0898], ["2023-07-14", 0.0886], ["2023-07-14", 0.09], ["2023-07-15", 0.0877], ["2023-07-16", 0.0875], ["2023-07-16", 0.088], ["2023-07-16", 0.088], ["2023-07-17", 0.0884], ["2023-07-17", 0.088], ["2023-07-17", 0.1082], ["2023-07-18", 0.1077], ["2023-07-19", 0.1073], ["2023-07-19", 0.1073], ["2023-07-19", 0.1073], ["2023-07-19", 0.1061], ["2023-07-19", 0.1052], ["2023-07-20", 0.1052], ["2023-07-20", 0.1052], ["2023-07-21", 0.1048], ["2023-07-21", 0.1043], ["2023-07-21", 0.102], ["2023-07-22", 0.1], ["2023-07-22", 0.0996], ["2023-07-22", 0.0993], ["2023-07-22", 0.0982], ["2023-07-22", 0.0987], ["2023-07-22", 0.0982], ["2023-07-23", 0.098], ["2023-07-23", 0.0987], ["2023-07-23", 0.098], ["2023-07-23", 0.0978], ["2023-07-24", 0.0776], ["2023-07-24", 0.0776], ["2023-07-24", 0.0773], ["2023-07-24", 0.0773], ["2023-07-25", 0.0771], ["2023-07-25", 0.0769], ["2023-07-25", 0.0771], ["2023-07-25", 0.0738], ["2023-07-25", 0.0736], ["2023-07-25", 0.0731], ["2023-07-25", 0.0731], ["2023-07-25", 0.0729], ["2023-07-25", 0.0711], ["2023-07-25", 0.0709], ["2023-07-25", 0.0702], ["2023-07-26", 0.0693], ["2023-07-26", 0.0693], ["2023-07-27", 0.068], ["2023-07-27", 0.068], ["2023-07-27", 0.068], ["2023-07-28", 0.0691], ["2023-07-28", 0.0691], ["2023-07-28", 0.0687], ["2023-07-28", 0.0685], ["2023-07-28", 0.0685], ["2023-07-29", 0.0687], ["2023-07-29", 0.0687], ["2023-07-30", 0.0487], ["2023-07-30", 0.0487], ["2023-07-30", 0.0485], ["2023-07-30", 0.0485], ["2023-07-31", 0.0657], ["2023-07-31", 0.0657], ["2023-07-31", 0.0654], ["2023-08-01", 0.0641], ["2023-08-01", 0.0641]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2842 | True |
2021-06-14 | Will the average price of whole milk powder as of 15 June 2021 be higher than it was as of 18 May 2021? | binary |
<p>Milk prices have been on the rise in 2021 (<a href="https://www.ruralnewsgroup.co.nz/dairy-news/dairy-general-news/bnz-predicts-7-80-opening-forecast-milk-price" target="_blank">Rural News Group</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by Global Dairy Trade, which posts new price data every first and third Tuesday of the month (<a href="https://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/whole-milk-powder/" target="_blank">Global Dairy Trade</a>). As of 18 May 2021, the average price of whole milk powder was $4,123.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-06-15 | gjopen | ["https://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/whole-milk-powder/", "https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/food-farming-fisheries/farming/documents/world-gdt-auction-results_en.pdf", "https://www.nzx.com/markets/nzx-dairy-derivatives/quotes/futures/BTR", "https://www.cmegroup.com/apps/cmegroup/widgets/productLibs/esignal-charts.html?code=DC&monthYear=M1&year=2021&venue=0&title=JUN_2021_Class_III_Milk_&type=p&exchangeCode=XCME&dataWidget=true", "https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/food-farming-fisheries/farming/documents/dashboard-dairy_en.pdf", "https://www.ft.com/content/3915928b-780f-4290-a28d-61f9e5a015c3", "https://www.nzx.com/markets/nzx-dairy-derivatives/quotes/futures/WMP", "https://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/butter/", "https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/dairy/nonfat-dry-milk.html", "http://www.fao.org/economic/est/est-commodities/dairy/en/", "http://www.farmers-exchange.net/detailPage.aspx?articleID=20473&faodatalab=2021-03-27-1", "https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/food-farming-fisheries/farming/documents/eu-dairy-commodity-prices_en.pdf", "https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/K3M21/overview"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2021-05-21 | 0.0 | [["2021-05-21", 0.0], ["2021-05-21", 0.125], ["2021-05-21", 0.25], ["2021-05-21", 0.325], ["2021-05-21", 0.4], ["2021-05-21", 0.5], ["2021-05-21", 0.4], ["2021-05-21", 0.5], ["2021-05-21", 0.6], ["2021-05-21", 0.75], ["2021-05-21", 0.6], ["2021-05-21", 0.75], ["2021-05-22", 0.9], ["2021-05-22", 0.85], ["2021-05-22", 0.9], ["2021-05-22", 0.8], ["2021-05-23", 0.85], ["2021-05-23", 0.8], ["2021-05-23", 0.75], ["2021-05-23", 0.7], ["2021-05-23", 0.75], ["2021-05-24", 0.7], ["2021-05-24", 0.7], ["2021-05-24", 0.7], ["2021-05-24", 0.7], ["2021-05-24", 0.7], ["2021-05-24", 0.7], ["2021-05-24", 0.7], ["2021-05-25", 0.7], ["2021-05-25", 0.7], ["2021-05-25", 0.7], ["2021-05-25", 0.69], ["2021-05-25", 0.67], ["2021-05-25", 0.65], ["2021-05-25", 0.65], ["2021-05-25", 0.65], ["2021-05-25", 0.625], ["2021-05-25", 0.67], ["2021-05-25", 0.65], ["2021-05-26", 0.65], ["2021-05-26", 0.65], ["2021-05-26", 0.625], ["2021-05-26", 0.6], ["2021-05-26", 0.6], ["2021-05-26", 0.625], ["2021-05-26", 0.625], ["2021-05-27", 0.65], ["2021-05-27", 0.65], ["2021-05-27", 0.65], ["2021-05-28", 0.6], ["2021-05-28", 0.65], ["2021-05-28", 0.65], ["2021-05-28", 0.65], ["2021-05-28", 0.65], ["2021-05-29", 0.65], ["2021-05-29", 0.65], ["2021-05-29", 0.65], ["2021-05-30", 0.65], ["2021-06-01", 0.65], ["2021-06-01", 0.65], ["2021-06-02", 0.65], ["2021-06-02", 0.65], ["2021-06-02", 0.65], ["2021-06-02", 0.625], ["2021-06-02", 0.625], ["2021-06-02", 0.65], ["2021-06-02", 0.66], ["2021-06-02", 0.65], ["2021-06-03", 0.625], ["2021-06-03", 0.625], ["2021-06-03", 0.565], ["2021-06-03", 0.565], ["2021-06-03", 0.525], ["2021-06-03", 0.515], ["2021-06-03", 0.515], ["2021-06-03", 0.51], ["2021-06-03", 0.51], ["2021-06-03", 0.485], ["2021-06-03", 0.46], ["2021-06-03", 0.46], ["2021-06-03", 0.425], ["2021-06-04", 0.4], ["2021-06-04", 0.4], ["2021-06-04", 0.4], ["2021-06-04", 0.4], ["2021-06-04", 0.37], ["2021-06-05", 0.34], ["2021-06-05", 0.33], ["2021-06-05", 0.33], ["2021-06-06", 0.33], ["2021-06-06", 0.32], ["2021-06-06", 0.32], ["2021-06-07", 0.3], ["2021-06-07", 0.3], ["2021-06-07", 0.3], ["2021-06-08", 0.3], ["2021-06-08", 0.3], ["2021-06-08", 0.3], ["2021-06-08", 0.25], ["2021-06-08", 0.245], ["2021-06-08", 0.245], ["2021-06-08", 0.225], ["2021-06-08", 0.225], ["2021-06-08", 0.225], ["2021-06-09", 0.225], ["2021-06-09", 0.225], ["2021-06-09", 0.19], ["2021-06-09", 0.175], ["2021-06-09", 0.17], ["2021-06-09", 0.17], ["2021-06-10", 0.175], ["2021-06-10", 0.17], ["2021-06-10", 0.17], ["2021-06-10", 0.165], ["2021-06-10", 0.165], ["2021-06-10", 0.17], ["2021-06-11", 0.17], ["2021-06-11", 0.175], ["2021-06-11", 0.175], ["2021-06-11", 0.175], ["2021-06-11", 0.175], ["2021-06-12", 0.175], ["2021-06-12", 0.175], ["2021-06-12", 0.175], ["2021-06-12", 0.175], ["2021-06-12", 0.175], ["2021-06-12", 0.175], ["2021-06-12", 0.175], ["2021-06-12", 0.175], ["2021-06-12", 0.175], ["2021-06-12", 0.175], ["2021-06-12", 0.175], ["2021-06-13", 0.175], ["2021-06-13", 0.175], ["2021-06-13", 0.17], ["2021-06-14", 0.17], ["2021-06-14", 0.17]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2015 | True |
2024-01-01 | Between November 2022 and December 2023, will workers 15 to 24 years old who are in the labour force of British Columbia (BC) comprise more than 14.6% of the total BC labour force in any month? | binary |
<p>The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 if still open and the outcome determined using data as first reported by Statistics Canada (<a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1410028702&pickMembers%5B0%5D=1.11&pickMembers%5B1%5D=3.1&cubeTimeFrame.startMonth=10&cubeTimeFrame.startYear=2022&referencePeriods=20221001%2C20221001" target="_blank">Statistics Canada</a>, parameters set in link). To retrieve data for a specific month, see the month and year drop-down menus under "Reference period," and click "Apply." Subsequent revisions to data would be immaterial. The percentage of workers 15 to 24 years old who are in the labour force will be determined by dividing the "Labour force" figure for "15 to 24 years" by the "Labour force" figure for "15 years and over" in the relevant month. In October 2022, workers 15 to 24 years old comprised 13.62% (=393.0/2884.6) of the BC labour force.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2024-01-05 | gjopen | ["https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rhBYnyCNaA9Qb6jsL4PmUmBK_oo99gxYAUmlCKNX8jk/edit?usp=sharing", "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rhBYnyCNaA9Qb6jsL4PmUmBK_oo99gxYAUmlCKNX8jk/edit#gid=495427886", "https://royal-bank-of-canada-2124.docs.contently.com/v/hot-provincial-momentum-to-lose-steam1"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2022-11-23 | 0.0 | [["2022-11-25", 0.9], ["2022-11-26", 0.95], ["2022-11-27", 0.9], ["2022-11-27", 0.88], ["2022-11-27", 0.904], ["2022-11-29", 0.9033], ["2022-11-30", 0.7743], ["2022-11-30", 0.8814], ["2022-11-30", 0.8213], ["2022-12-01", 0.8411], ["2022-12-02", 0.857], ["2022-12-05", 0.847], ["2022-12-06", 0.811], ["2022-12-11", 0.831], ["2022-12-13", 0.749], ["2022-12-16", 0.728], ["2022-12-17", 0.727], ["2022-12-25", 0.644], ["2022-12-26", 0.643], ["2022-12-30", 0.635], ["2022-12-30", 0.635], ["2023-01-05", 0.631], ["2023-01-12", 0.616], ["2023-01-15", 0.526], ["2023-01-28", 0.498], ["2023-01-29", 0.495], ["2023-01-31", 0.491], ["2023-02-04", 0.472], ["2023-02-08", 0.492], ["2023-02-13", 0.392], ["2023-03-11", 0.389], ["2023-03-20", 0.387], ["2023-05-03", 0.386], ["2023-05-12", 0.311], ["2023-05-14", 0.308], ["2023-05-17", 0.299], ["2023-05-19", 0.239], ["2023-05-26", 0.243], ["2023-06-03", 0.245], ["2023-06-28", 0.237], ["2023-06-28", 0.234], ["2023-07-27", 0.227], ["2023-08-07", 0.212], ["2023-08-12", 0.221], ["2023-08-12", 0.22], ["2023-08-29", 0.22], ["2023-08-29", 0.217], ["2023-09-06", 0.219], ["2023-09-08", 0.219], ["2023-09-14", 0.219], ["2023-09-20", 0.225], ["2023-09-30", 0.223], ["2023-10-02", 0.201], ["2023-10-02", 0.239], ["2023-10-03", 0.239], ["2023-10-04", 0.239], ["2023-10-05", 0.241], ["2023-11-01", 0.239], ["2023-11-08", 0.241], ["2023-11-18", 0.141], ["2023-11-21", 0.138], ["2023-11-22", 0.12], ["2023-11-22", 0.108], ["2023-11-23", 0.123], ["2023-11-25", 0.111], ["2023-12-26", 0.109], ["2023-12-26", 0.101], ["2023-12-29", 0.09], ["2023-12-31", 0.055], ["2023-12-31", 0.051], ["2023-12-31", 0.053], ["2024-01-01", 0.053]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2637 | True |
2023-03-01 | Will the combined daily Android users of Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, and Snapchat exceed 1.74 billion in February 2023? | binary |
<p>October 2022 saw the third consecutive month of declines in Android device users on Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, and Snapchat (<a href="https://nonrival.substack.com/p/is-the-social-media-era-really-ending" target="_blank">Nonrival</a>, see first chart). The question will be suspended on 28 February 2023 and the outcome determined using SimilarWeb data as reported by Nonrival (<a href="https://www.similarweb.com/" target="_blank">Similarweb</a>, <a href="https://nonrival.substack.com" target="_blank">Nonrival - Substack</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-05-02 | gjopen | ["https://www.demandsage.com/tiktok-user-statistics/", "https://www.businessofapps.com/data/facebook-statistics/", "https://www.bankmycell.com/blog/how-many-users-does-twitter-have", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/31/technology/snap-earnings.html", "https://www.demandsage.com/snapchat-users/", "https://investor.fb.com/financials/default.aspx", "https://www.google.com/search?q=twitter+users+2023&sxsrf=AJOqlzUYTHKl4FZLFfYEUxDBeSA-AqPr9A%3A1675327749435&ei=BXnbY5CdGpyahbIPrrqVEA&ved=0ahUKEwjQs4ybuvb8AhUcTUEAHS5dBQIQ4dUDCA8&uact=5&oq=twitter+users+2023&gs_lcp=Cgxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAQAzIFCAAQgAQyBQgAEIYDOgoIABBHENYEELADOgUIABCiBEoECEEYAEoECEYYAFCvAVi1BGDhB2gBcAF4AIABRYgBxgSSAQE5mAEAoAEByAEIwAEB&sclient=gws-wiz-serp", "https://www.socialsamosa.com/2023/01/facebook-advertisers-strategy-2023/", "https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=US49670222", "https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=US49670222%5D", "https://candytech.in/ios-vs-android-share-in-india-and-us/", "https://www.bbc.com/news/business-64489862", "https://www.digitalinformationworld.com/2022/07/interaction-rate-on-instagram-posts.html", "https://www.statista.com/topics/876/android/#topicHeader__wrapper", "https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202302/1285463.shtml", "https://digitalmarketinginstitute.com/blog/social-media-what-countries-use-it-most-and-what-are-they-using", "https://www.businessofapps.com/data/instagram-statistics/", "https://investor.twitterinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results/default.aspx", "https://www.statista.com/statistics/232786/forecast-of-andrioid-users-in-the-us/", "https://investor.snap.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx", "https://www.businessofapps.com/data/android-statistics/", "https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share/mobile/worldwide", "https://www.statista.com/statistics/232790/forecast-of-apple-users-in-the-us/", "https://www.weatherads.io/blog/how-weather-affects-social-media-engagement-and-ad-performance", "https://www.shacknews.com/article/133970/facebook-meta-averaged-2-billion-daily-active-users-daus-during-q4-2022"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2022-12-09 | 1.0 | [["2022-12-09", 0.72], ["2022-12-09", 0.575], ["2022-12-09", 0.4667], ["2022-12-09", 0.425], ["2022-12-09", 0.34], ["2022-12-09", 0.3867], ["2022-12-10", 0.4543], ["2022-12-10", 0.4075], ["2022-12-10", 0.4722], ["2022-12-10", 0.475], ["2022-12-10", 0.4864], ["2022-12-10", 0.4891], ["2022-12-10", 0.5117], ["2022-12-10", 0.4946], ["2022-12-10", 0.4946], ["2022-12-10", 0.5], ["2022-12-10", 0.5033], ["2022-12-11", 0.4719], ["2022-12-11", 0.5029], ["2022-12-12", 0.5056], ["2022-12-12", 0.5], ["2022-12-12", 0.5433], ["2022-12-13", 0.522], ["2022-12-13", 0.5519], ["2022-12-13", 0.4929], ["2022-12-13", 0.4554], ["2022-12-14", 0.45], ["2022-12-14", 0.46], ["2022-12-14", 0.505], ["2022-12-14", 0.5169], ["2022-12-15", 0.52], ["2022-12-16", 0.4791], ["2022-12-16", 0.5225], ["2022-12-21", 0.5242], ["2022-12-22", 0.5408], ["2022-12-22", 0.5762], ["2022-12-22", 0.5838], ["2022-12-23", 0.5608], ["2022-12-26", 0.6123], ["2022-12-27", 0.5738], ["2022-12-27", 0.5864], ["2022-12-28", 0.5893], ["2022-12-28", 0.5893], ["2022-12-28", 0.5493], ["2022-12-28", 0.5386], ["2022-12-28", 0.504], ["2022-12-29", 0.5473], ["2022-12-30", 0.5273], ["2022-12-30", 0.538], ["2023-01-03", 0.5463], ["2023-01-03", 0.5388], ["2023-01-03", 0.5075], ["2023-01-04", 0.5082], ["2023-01-06", 0.5218], ["2023-01-06", 0.5241], ["2023-01-07", 0.5422], ["2023-01-14", 0.5783], ["2023-01-14", 0.5744], ["2023-01-14", 0.5732], ["2023-01-14", 0.6021], ["2023-01-14", 0.5637], ["2023-01-15", 0.543], ["2023-01-15", 0.538], ["2023-01-16", 0.5245], ["2023-01-16", 0.5376], ["2023-01-16", 0.5486], ["2023-01-16", 0.5386], ["2023-01-17", 0.5255], ["2023-01-17", 0.5559], ["2023-01-19", 0.5465], ["2023-01-20", 0.5478], ["2023-01-21", 0.5487], ["2023-01-21", 0.5226], ["2023-01-22", 0.5117], ["2023-01-22", 0.4967], ["2023-01-23", 0.4688], ["2023-01-24", 0.4788], ["2023-01-24", 0.4788], ["2023-01-25", 0.4754], ["2023-01-26", 0.4754], ["2023-01-26", 0.4546], ["2023-01-27", 0.4596], ["2023-01-28", 0.4667], ["2023-01-28", 0.4675], ["2023-01-31", 0.4675], ["2023-01-31", 0.4675], ["2023-02-01", 0.4638], ["2023-02-02", 0.4638], ["2023-02-02", 0.4654], ["2023-02-02", 0.4663], ["2023-02-02", 0.4704], ["2023-02-02", 0.4646], ["2023-02-03", 0.4646], ["2023-02-03", 0.4663], ["2023-02-03", 0.4658], ["2023-02-04", 0.495], ["2023-02-05", 0.5117], ["2023-02-06", 0.5113], ["2023-02-07", 0.5125], ["2023-02-07", 0.5133], ["2023-02-07", 0.5133], ["2023-02-10", 0.5142], ["2023-02-11", 0.5096], ["2023-02-13", 0.5104], ["2023-02-14", 0.5004], ["2023-02-14", 0.5132], ["2023-02-16", 0.5108], ["2023-02-16", 0.5216], ["2023-02-21", 0.5196], ["2023-02-21", 0.5252], ["2023-02-21", 0.526], ["2023-02-21", 0.526], ["2023-02-21", 0.5284], ["2023-02-21", 0.5292], ["2023-02-22", 0.5252], ["2023-02-22", 0.5112], ["2023-02-22", 0.5112], ["2023-02-22", 0.5052], ["2023-02-22", 0.4772], ["2023-02-22", 0.48], ["2023-02-23", 0.48], ["2023-02-23", 0.4776], ["2023-02-24", 0.4816], ["2023-02-24", 0.4936], ["2023-02-25", 0.4896], ["2023-02-26", 0.4916], ["2023-02-26", 0.49], ["2023-02-26", 0.5032], ["2023-02-27", 0.5088], ["2023-02-28", 0.5148], ["2023-02-28", 0.5142], ["2023-02-28", 0.5127], ["2023-02-28", 0.5185], ["2023-02-28", 0.5185], ["2023-02-28", 0.5185], ["2023-02-28", 0.5185], ["2023-02-28", 0.5223], ["2023-03-01", 0.5223]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2666 | True |
2020-08-15 | Will Félix Tshisekedi cease to be president of the Democratic Republic of the Congo before 15 August 2020? | binary |
<p>Félix Tshisekedi was inaugurated in January 2020 amid claims of election rigging and a secret power-sharing deal with outgoing President Kabila (<a href="https://worldin.economist.com/article/17368/edition2020instability-top-congo" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.theafricareport.com/21469/drc-president-a-great-congo-needs-great-ambition/" target="_blank">The Africa Report</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/felix-tshisekedis-improbable-inauguration-leaves-congo-in-a-confused-daze/2019/01/24/36f51a84-1cf1-11e9-a759-2b8541bbbe20_story.html" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p>
</p> | 2020-08-16 | gjopen | {} | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2020-01-16 | 0.0 | [["2020-01-17", 0.175], ["2020-01-17", 0.25], ["2020-01-18", 0.25], ["2020-01-18", 0.25], ["2020-01-18", 0.16], ["2020-01-18", 0.13], ["2020-01-19", 0.125], ["2020-01-19", 0.09], ["2020-01-19", 0.09], ["2020-01-19", 0.09], ["2020-01-19", 0.125], ["2020-01-19", 0.15], ["2020-01-19", 0.15], ["2020-01-19", 0.15], ["2020-01-19", 0.15], ["2020-01-19", 0.175], ["2020-01-19", 0.175], ["2020-01-19", 0.2], ["2020-01-19", 0.225], ["2020-01-19", 0.25], ["2020-01-19", 0.27], ["2020-01-19", 0.27], ["2020-01-19", 0.25], ["2020-01-19", 0.25], ["2020-01-19", 0.25], ["2020-01-19", 0.25], ["2020-01-19", 0.225], ["2020-01-19", 0.225], ["2020-01-19", 0.2], ["2020-01-20", 0.2], ["2020-01-20", 0.2], ["2020-01-20", 0.2], ["2020-01-20", 0.2], ["2020-01-20", 0.2], ["2020-01-20", 0.2], ["2020-01-20", 0.2], ["2020-01-21", 0.25], ["2020-01-21", 0.25], ["2020-01-21", 0.225], ["2020-01-22", 0.25], ["2020-01-22", 0.2], ["2020-01-22", 0.2], ["2020-01-22", 0.2], ["2020-01-22", 0.2], ["2020-01-22", 0.2], ["2020-01-23", 0.2], ["2020-01-23", 0.2], ["2020-01-24", 0.2], ["2020-01-24", 0.2], ["2020-01-24", 0.2], ["2020-01-25", 0.2], ["2020-01-26", 0.2], ["2020-01-26", 0.195], ["2020-01-27", 0.19], ["2020-01-27", 0.14], ["2020-01-29", 0.15], ["2020-01-30", 0.14], ["2020-01-31", 0.11], ["2020-02-01", 0.11], ["2020-02-02", 0.105], ["2020-02-03", 0.1], ["2020-02-03", 0.1], ["2020-02-04", 0.1], ["2020-02-05", 0.1], ["2020-02-06", 0.1], ["2020-02-08", 0.1], ["2020-02-08", 0.09], ["2020-02-08", 0.08], ["2020-02-09", 0.08], ["2020-02-10", 0.08], ["2020-02-11", 0.08], ["2020-02-11", 0.08], ["2020-02-11", 0.08], ["2020-02-13", 0.08], ["2020-02-13", 0.08], ["2020-02-13", 0.08], ["2020-02-13", 0.08], ["2020-02-14", 0.075], ["2020-02-15", 0.07], ["2020-02-17", 0.07], ["2020-02-17", 0.07], ["2020-02-18", 0.07], ["2020-02-18", 0.065], ["2020-02-19", 0.07], ["2020-02-19", 0.07], ["2020-02-20", 0.07], ["2020-02-20", 0.07], ["2020-02-23", 0.07], ["2020-02-24", 0.07], ["2020-02-25", 0.07], ["2020-02-25", 0.07], ["2020-02-25", 0.07], ["2020-02-26", 0.07], ["2020-02-27", 0.075], ["2020-02-29", 0.07], ["2020-03-01", 0.07], ["2020-03-04", 0.07], ["2020-03-05", 0.07], ["2020-03-06", 0.07], ["2020-03-08", 0.07], ["2020-03-09", 0.07], ["2020-03-10", 0.065], ["2020-03-10", 0.065], ["2020-03-12", 0.055], ["2020-03-16", 0.06], ["2020-03-17", 0.05], ["2020-03-18", 0.05], ["2020-03-18", 0.05], ["2020-03-19", 0.05], ["2020-03-19", 0.05], ["2020-03-20", 0.05], ["2020-03-20", 0.05], ["2020-03-21", 0.05], ["2020-03-22", 0.05], ["2020-03-22", 0.05], ["2020-03-23", 0.05], ["2020-03-24", 0.05], ["2020-03-25", 0.05], ["2020-03-26", 0.05], ["2020-03-26", 0.05], ["2020-03-29", 0.05], ["2020-03-29", 0.05], ["2020-03-31", 0.05], ["2020-04-01", 0.05], ["2020-04-01", 0.05], ["2020-04-03", 0.05], ["2020-04-04", 0.05], ["2020-04-05", 0.05], ["2020-04-05", 0.05], ["2020-04-06", 0.05], ["2020-04-06", 0.04], ["2020-04-07", 0.04], ["2020-04-08", 0.04], ["2020-04-09", 0.035], ["2020-04-09", 0.03], ["2020-04-13", 0.035], ["2020-04-14", 0.035], ["2020-04-17", 0.035], ["2020-04-19", 0.04], ["2020-04-19", 0.03], ["2020-04-22", 0.03], ["2020-04-22", 0.03], ["2020-04-24", 0.03], ["2020-04-26", 0.03], ["2020-04-26", 0.03], ["2020-04-28", 0.02], ["2020-04-29", 0.03], ["2020-05-01", 0.03], ["2020-05-01", 0.03], ["2020-05-02", 0.025], ["2020-05-03", 0.02], ["2020-05-03", 0.02], ["2020-05-06", 0.02], ["2020-05-06", 0.02], ["2020-05-08", 0.02], ["2020-05-10", 0.02], ["2020-05-12", 0.02], ["2020-05-12", 0.02], ["2020-05-13", 0.02], ["2020-05-13", 0.02], ["2020-05-14", 0.02], ["2020-05-17", 0.02], ["2020-05-20", 0.02], ["2020-05-20", 0.02], ["2020-05-21", 0.02], ["2020-05-21", 0.02], ["2020-05-23", 0.02], ["2020-05-26", 0.02], ["2020-05-29", 0.02], ["2020-06-01", 0.02], ["2020-06-01", 0.02], ["2020-06-01", 0.02], ["2020-06-02", 0.02], ["2020-06-02", 0.02], ["2020-06-02", 0.015], ["2020-06-02", 0.01], ["2020-06-03", 0.01], ["2020-06-03", 0.01], ["2020-06-04", 0.01], ["2020-06-04", 0.01], ["2020-06-05", 0.01], ["2020-06-06", 0.01], ["2020-06-07", 0.01], ["2020-06-07", 0.01], ["2020-06-09", 0.01], ["2020-06-09", 0.01], ["2020-06-11", 0.01], ["2020-06-11", 0.01], ["2020-06-11", 0.01], ["2020-06-12", 0.01], ["2020-06-12", 0.01], ["2020-06-13", 0.01], ["2020-06-14", 0.01], ["2020-06-14", 0.01], ["2020-06-15", 0.01], ["2020-06-16", 0.01], ["2020-06-16", 0.01], ["2020-06-18", 0.01], ["2020-06-22", 0.01], ["2020-06-23", 0.01], ["2020-06-24", 0.01], ["2020-06-24", 0.01], ["2020-06-26", 0.01], ["2020-06-28", 0.01], ["2020-06-28", 0.01], ["2020-06-30", 0.01], ["2020-06-30", 0.01], ["2020-07-01", 0.01], ["2020-07-01", 0.01], ["2020-07-01", 0.01], ["2020-07-03", 0.01], ["2020-07-05", 0.01], ["2020-07-05", 0.01], ["2020-07-06", 0.01], ["2020-07-07", 0.01], ["2020-07-12", 0.01], ["2020-07-14", 0.01], ["2020-07-15", 0.01], ["2020-07-16", 0.01], ["2020-07-17", 0.0], ["2020-07-18", 0.0], ["2020-07-18", 0.0], ["2020-07-22", 0.0], ["2020-07-23", 0.0], ["2020-07-23", 0.0], ["2020-07-24", 0.0], ["2020-07-26", 0.0], ["2020-07-26", 0.0], ["2020-07-26", 0.0], ["2020-07-28", 0.0], ["2020-07-29", 0.0], ["2020-07-29", 0.0], ["2020-07-30", 0.0], ["2020-07-31", 0.0], ["2020-07-31", 0.0], ["2020-08-01", 0.0], ["2020-08-02", 0.0], ["2020-08-03", 0.0], ["2020-08-03", 0.0], ["2020-08-04", 0.0], ["2020-08-05", 0.0], ["2020-08-05", 0.0], ["2020-08-06", 0.0], ["2020-08-07", 0.0], ["2020-08-08", 0.0], ["2020-08-08", 0.0], ["2020-08-08", 0.0], ["2020-08-08", 0.0], ["2020-08-10", 0.0], ["2020-08-10", 0.0], ["2020-08-11", 0.0], ["2020-08-11", 0.0], ["2020-08-12", 0.0], ["2020-08-13", 0.0], ["2020-08-14", 0.0], ["2020-08-14", 0.0], ["2020-08-14", 0.0], ["2020-08-15", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1489 | True |
2023-02-27 | On 27 February 2023, will the combined number of likes and retweets of the most recent @theRCN tweet as of 14 February 2023 (UK time) that contains the hashtag #FairPayforNursing exceed 4,000? | binary |
<p>The question will be suspended on 26 February 2023 and the outcome determined using data as displayed on Twitter at approximately 11:59PM in the UK on 27 February 2023 (6:59PM ET). An example of a qualifying tweet may be found here: <a href="https://twitter.com/theRCN/status/1609595528777531399" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.</p><p><i><b>NOTE</b>: Questions in the Fujitsu Hivemind Challenge have been partly crowdsourced through a research project and consequently may have experimental framings.</i></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 13 February 2023</span>: The most recent tweet as of calendar 14 February 2023 (UK time) would be used for resolution. Whether that most recent tweet is made on calendar 14 February 2023 or on an earlier date is immaterial.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>
| 2023-03-01 | gjopen | ["https://github.com/nikhilverma360/TwitterEngagementBot", "https://twitter.com/theRCN/status/1609595528777531399", "https://www.policycenter.ma/sites/default/files/PP_20-28_Badaoui.pdf", "https://twitter.com/theRCN/status/1625570764962336772?t=baS_4cjFEkISDVHWXj3ktQ&s=19", "https://twitter.com/SocialistNHS/status/1615620459784986626", "https://twitter.com/theRCN/status/1615968867897036801"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2023-01-16 | 0.0 | [["2023-01-16", 0.08], ["2023-01-16", 0.1], ["2023-01-16", 0.06], ["2023-01-16", 0.0667], ["2023-01-17", 0.0633], ["2023-01-17", 0.0475], ["2023-01-17", 0.046], ["2023-01-17", 0.042], ["2023-01-17", 0.04], ["2023-01-17", 0.0343], ["2023-01-17", 0.03], ["2023-01-17", 0.0263], ["2023-01-17", 0.1344], ["2023-01-17", 0.123], ["2023-01-17", 0.1236], ["2023-01-17", 0.1217], ["2023-01-17", 0.1123], ["2023-01-17", 0.1043], ["2023-01-17", 0.0987], ["2023-01-17", 0.0956], ["2023-01-18", 0.09], ["2023-01-18", 0.0917], ["2023-01-18", 0.0922], ["2023-01-18", 0.1167], ["2023-01-19", 0.1194], ["2023-01-19", 0.1305], ["2023-01-19", 0.128], ["2023-01-19", 0.1219], ["2023-01-19", 0.1573], ["2023-01-20", 0.2512], ["2023-01-20", 0.1988], ["2023-01-20", 0.218], ["2023-01-21", 0.322], ["2023-01-21", 0.323], ["2023-01-21", 0.2955], ["2023-01-21", 0.3509], ["2023-01-21", 0.3145], ["2023-01-21", 0.3164], ["2023-01-22", 0.311], ["2023-01-23", 0.283], ["2023-01-23", 0.28], ["2023-01-24", 0.288], ["2023-01-25", 0.21], ["2023-01-25", 0.208], ["2023-01-28", 0.202], ["2023-01-29", 0.203], ["2023-01-30", 0.1936], ["2023-01-31", 0.1755], ["2023-01-31", 0.1736], ["2023-01-31", 0.18], ["2023-01-31", 0.205], ["2023-02-01", 0.2008], ["2023-02-01", 0.2238], ["2023-02-01", 0.2585], ["2023-02-01", 0.2585], ["2023-02-02", 0.2871], ["2023-02-03", 0.2771], ["2023-02-04", 0.2871], ["2023-02-05", 0.2964], ["2023-02-05", 0.3129], ["2023-02-05", 0.3014], ["2023-02-06", 0.2871], ["2023-02-07", 0.2843], ["2023-02-08", 0.2843], ["2023-02-09", 0.2879], ["2023-02-10", 0.28], ["2023-02-10", 0.2693], ["2023-02-11", 0.28], ["2023-02-11", 0.2814], ["2023-02-11", 0.2771], ["2023-02-12", 0.275], ["2023-02-13", 0.2729], ["2023-02-13", 0.2693], ["2023-02-14", 0.2664], ["2023-02-14", 0.2536], ["2023-02-15", 0.2357], ["2023-02-15", 0.2336], ["2023-02-15", 0.2307], ["2023-02-15", 0.2314], ["2023-02-15", 0.2264], ["2023-02-15", 0.2243], ["2023-02-15", 0.2193], ["2023-02-15", 0.2171], ["2023-02-16", 0.19], ["2023-02-16", 0.1857], ["2023-02-16", 0.185], ["2023-02-18", 0.1757], ["2023-02-18", 0.175], ["2023-02-18", 0.1707], ["2023-02-19", 0.1679], ["2023-02-20", 0.1457], ["2023-02-21", 0.136], ["2023-02-21", 0.1347], ["2023-02-22", 0.1327], ["2023-02-22", 0.1307], ["2023-02-22", 0.1327], ["2023-02-22", 0.0887], ["2023-02-23", 0.0873], ["2023-02-23", 0.0607], ["2023-02-23", 0.0427], ["2023-02-23", 0.0427], ["2023-02-23", 0.0753], ["2023-02-23", 0.0787], ["2023-02-23", 0.0733], ["2023-02-23", 0.0727], ["2023-02-23", 0.0647], ["2023-02-23", 0.0687], ["2023-02-24", 0.0633], ["2023-02-24", 0.0333], ["2023-02-24", 0.032], ["2023-02-24", 0.0253], ["2023-02-25", 0.024], ["2023-02-25", 0.0193], ["2023-02-26", 0.0153], ["2023-02-26", 0.015], ["2023-02-27", 0.015]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2716 | True |
2023-06-01 | Will SpaceX's first Starship orbital flight test be launched successfully before 1 June 2023? | binary |
<p>SpaceX is looking to launch its first orbital flight test as soon as March 2023, though it is waiting for a license from the Federal Aviation Administration (<a href="https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-starship-orbital-launch-debut-faa-license-progress/" target="_blank">Teslarati</a>, <a href="https://www.cnet.com/science/space/spacex-starships-upcoming-orbital-test-flight-will-be-must-see-tv/" target="_blank">CNET</a>, <a href="https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-first-orbital-launch-march-confirmed" target="_blank">Space.com</a>). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful first stage separation (<a href="https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-super-heavy-14-engine-test-fire" target="_blank">Space.com</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p> | 2023-06-01 | gjopen | ["https://www.space.com/starship-success-odds-first-orbital-flight-elon-musk", "https://us.cnn.com/2023/04/14/world/spacex-starship-launch-license-scn/index.html", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk-lowers-expectations-for-spacexs-first-starship-launch-attempt-65502704", "https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-first-orbital-launch-april-17", "https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/04/spacex-moves-starship-to-launch-site-and-liftoff-could-be-just-days-away/", "https://www.wevolver.com/specs/spacexs-starship-sn24-bn7", "https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-launch-many-issues-elon-musk", "https://spacenews.com/spacex-closing-in-on-first-starship-super-heavy-launch/", "https://observer.com/2023/05/spacex-starship-orbital-test-date/", "https://wccftech.com/spacexs-starship-launch-was-like-a-bomb-destroying-the-launch-pad/", "https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/spacexs-starship-has-50-chance-success-1st-orbital-lieberman-", "https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/24/spacex-starship-explosion-spread-particulate-matter-for-miles.html", "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1649523985837686784", "https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-starship-orbital-launch-debut-faa-license-progress/", "https://www.npr.org/2023/04/20/1170983959/spacex-starship-launch-elon-musk", "https://time.com/6252046/spacex-starship-rocket/", "https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1649521329765330945", "https://interestingengineering.com/innovation/elon-musk-starship-has-a-50-50-chance-of-reaching-orbit-on-first-try", "https://www.space.com/faa-proposes-fining-spacex-starlink-launch", "https://www.npr.org/2023/05/05/1174014027/spacex-wants-starship-worlds-biggest-rocket-fly-moon-mars-but-will-investors", "https://techcrunch.com/2023/04/04/hype-grows-for-spacexs-starship-orbital-flight-test-but-barriers-remain/", "https://www.axios.com/2023/04/28/faa-spacex-starship-investigation-explosive-test-flight", "https://spaceexplored.com/2023/04/22/photos-starship-pad-damage-elon-says-1-2-months-until-next-flight/", "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1649050306943266819?cxt=HHwWhsDRoYyhzeItAAAA"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2023-03-03 | 0.0 | [["2023-03-03", 0.6], ["2023-03-03", 0.72], ["2023-03-03", 0.7633], ["2023-03-03", 0.7975], ["2023-03-03", 0.77], ["2023-03-04", 0.7533], ["2023-03-04", 0.7886], ["2023-03-04", 0.79], ["2023-03-04", 0.8133], ["2023-03-04", 0.812], ["2023-03-04", 0.7982], ["2023-03-04", 0.7858], ["2023-03-04", 0.7262], ["2023-03-04", 0.7457], ["2023-03-05", 0.746], ["2023-03-05", 0.7369], ["2023-03-05", 0.7406], ["2023-03-05", 0.6994], ["2023-03-05", 0.6626], ["2023-03-06", 0.6295], ["2023-03-06", 0.6495], ["2023-03-06", 0.6495], ["2023-03-06", 0.6471], ["2023-03-06", 0.6445], ["2023-03-06", 0.6336], ["2023-03-06", 0.6058], ["2023-03-06", 0.6037], 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0.03], ["2023-04-27", 0.0277], ["2023-04-27", 0.0277], ["2023-04-27", 0.0273], ["2023-04-27", 0.0268], ["2023-04-28", 0.0259], ["2023-04-28", 0.0259], ["2023-04-28", 0.025], ["2023-04-28", 0.025], ["2023-04-29", 0.0255], ["2023-04-29", 0.0255], ["2023-04-29", 0.025], ["2023-04-29", 0.025], ["2023-04-29", 0.025], ["2023-04-30", 0.0245], ["2023-04-30", 0.025], ["2023-05-01", 0.0227], ["2023-05-02", 0.0223], ["2023-05-03", 0.0223], ["2023-05-03", 0.0245], ["2023-05-04", 0.0245], ["2023-05-06", 0.0218], ["2023-05-06", 0.0218], ["2023-05-07", 0.0082], ["2023-05-08", 0.0082], ["2023-05-09", 0.0096], ["2023-05-10", 0.0078], ["2023-05-10", 0.0074], ["2023-05-10", 0.0074], ["2023-05-11", 0.007], ["2023-05-12", 0.007], ["2023-05-14", 0.007], ["2023-05-15", 0.0071], ["2023-05-16", 0.0071], ["2023-05-19", 0.0071], ["2023-05-20", 0.0075], ["2023-05-23", 0.0333], ["2023-05-24", 0.0333], ["2023-05-25", 0.0325], ["2023-05-25", 0.0325], ["2023-05-26", 0.0325], ["2023-05-29", 0.0304], ["2023-05-29", 0.0304], ["2023-05-31", 0.0304], ["2023-06-01", 0.0304], ["2023-06-01", 0.0304]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2778 | True |
2021-01-01 | Before 1 January 2021, will the Council of the European Union decide to impose an arms embargo against Turkey? | binary |
<p>As Turkey continues to survey the Eastern Mediterranean for oil and gas over the strenuous objections of Greece and Cyprus, the European Union is considering a "less positive" response to Turkish actions -- though there are divisions among member states (<a href="https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2020/10/30/remarks-by-president-charles-michel-after-the-video-conference-of-the-members-of-the-european-council-on-29-october-2020/" target="_blank">European Council/Council of the European Union</a>, <a href="https://www.thenationalherald.com/greece_politics/arthro/eu_sides_with_greece_but_defers_sanctions_against_turkey-1110979/" target="_blank">National Herald</a>, <a href="https://greekcitytimes.com/2020/10/19/eu-sanctions-against-turkey/" target="_blank">Greek City Times</a>, <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/banking-and-finance/international-relations/restrictive-measures-sanctions_en" target="_blank">European Commission</a>). The European Council is next scheduled to meet on 10-11 December 2020 (<a href="https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/european-council/2020/12/10-11/" target="_blank">European Council</a>). Actions taken by individual member states would not count (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-security-eu-france/eu-governments-limit-arms-sales-to-turkey-but-avoid-embargo-idUSKBN1WT0M4" target="_blank">Reuters</a>).</p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2021-01-02 | gjopen | ["https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/9/erdogan-threat-of-eu-sanctions-on-turkey-do-not-concern-us", "https://www.reuters.com/article/turkey-eu/eu-weighs-up-sanctions-against-turkey-in-east-med-gas-dispute-idUSKBN28H0YM", "https://bit.ly/33UVqLo", "https://www.politico.eu/article/greece-blasts-berlin-for-shunning-plea-for-turkey-arms-embargo/", "https://bit.ly/3gmzkpT", "https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/european-council/2020/12/10-11/", "https://reut.rs/2VMsUHc", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-usa-nato/in-parting-shot-pompeo-rebukes-turkey-at-nato-meeting-idUSKBN28D1YC", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/27/turkey-probes-german-navys-search-of-libya-bound-freighter", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2020-12-10/brussels-edition-a-landmark-package", "https://carnegieeurope.eu/2020/12/14/new-eu-global-human-rights-sanctions-regime-breakthrough-or-distraction-pub-83415", "https://reut.rs/3qIgvCv", "https://www.aljazeera.com/program/inside-story/2020/12/17/how-will-turkey-respond-to-us-sanctions", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-security-eu-france/eu-governments-limit-arms-sales-to-turkey-but-avoid-embargo-idUSKBN1WT0M4", "https://bit.ly/37GxXOV", "https://bit.ly/3ga6SaM", "https://reut.rs/3gAsRbc", "https://reut.rs/3n1vuVY", "https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/2674536/libyan-national-army-says-%E2%80%98state-war%E2%80%99-turkey", "https://www.dailysabah.com/opinion/columns/caatsa-what-doesnt-kill-you-makes-you-stronger", "https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/merkel-and-borissov-blocked-eu-sanctions-against-turkey-at-summit-sources/", "https://bit.ly/36ubk0N"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2020-11-06 | 0.0 | [["2020-11-06", 0.16], ["2020-11-06", 0.08], ["2020-11-06", 0.0], ["2020-11-06", 0.0], ["2020-11-06", 0.0], ["2020-11-06", 0.0], ["2020-11-06", 0.0], ["2020-11-06", 0.0], ["2020-11-06", 0.0], ["2020-11-06", 0.01], ["2020-11-07", 0.0], ["2020-11-07", 0.0], ["2020-11-07", 0.0], ["2020-11-07", 0.01], ["2020-11-07", 0.01], ["2020-11-07", 0.005], ["2020-11-07", 0.015], ["2020-11-07", 0.015], ["2020-11-07", 0.015], ["2020-11-07", 0.005], ["2020-11-07", 0.005], ["2020-11-07", 0.02], ["2020-11-07", 0.025], ["2020-11-07", 0.015], ["2020-11-08", 0.015], ["2020-11-08", 0.025], ["2020-11-08", 0.025], ["2020-11-08", 0.02], ["2020-11-08", 0.02], ["2020-11-08", 0.02], ["2020-11-08", 0.02], ["2020-11-09", 0.02], ["2020-11-09", 0.02], ["2020-11-09", 0.02], ["2020-11-09", 0.01], ["2020-11-09", 0.01], ["2020-11-09", 0.01], ["2020-11-09", 0.0], ["2020-11-09", 0.02], ["2020-11-09", 0.02], ["2020-11-09", 0.02], ["2020-11-09", 0.01], ["2020-11-09", 0.01], ["2020-11-10", 0.0], ["2020-11-10", 0.0], ["2020-11-10", 0.0], ["2020-11-10", 0.0], ["2020-11-10", 0.0], ["2020-11-10", 0.0], ["2020-11-10", 0.0], ["2020-11-11", 0.0], ["2020-11-11", 0.0], ["2020-11-11", 0.0], ["2020-11-11", 0.0], ["2020-11-11", 0.0], ["2020-11-11", 0.0], ["2020-11-12", 0.0], ["2020-11-12", 0.0], ["2020-11-12", 0.0], ["2020-11-12", 0.0], ["2020-11-12", 0.0], ["2020-11-12", 0.0], ["2020-11-12", 0.0], ["2020-11-12", 0.0], ["2020-11-12", 0.005], ["2020-11-13", 0.01], ["2020-11-13", 0.01], ["2020-11-13", 0.02], ["2020-11-13", 0.01], ["2020-11-13", 0.02], ["2020-11-13", 0.03], ["2020-11-13", 0.03], 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["2020-12-21", 0.0], ["2020-12-21", 0.0], ["2020-12-21", 0.0], ["2020-12-22", 0.0], ["2020-12-22", 0.0], ["2020-12-23", 0.0], ["2020-12-23", 0.0], ["2020-12-24", 0.0], ["2020-12-26", 0.0], ["2020-12-26", 0.0], ["2020-12-26", 0.0], ["2020-12-26", 0.0], ["2020-12-27", 0.0], ["2020-12-27", 0.0], ["2020-12-27", 0.0], ["2020-12-28", 0.0], ["2020-12-28", 0.0], ["2020-12-29", 0.0], ["2020-12-29", 0.0], ["2020-12-29", 0.0], ["2020-12-29", 0.0], ["2020-12-29", 0.0], ["2020-12-29", 0.0], ["2020-12-30", 0.0], ["2020-12-30", 0.0], ["2020-12-30", 0.0], ["2020-12-30", 0.0], ["2020-12-30", 0.0], ["2020-12-31", 0.0], ["2021-01-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1827 | True |
2022-01-01 | Will US print book sales in 2021 exceed those in 2020? | binary |
<p>In 2020, print book sales in the US were at their highest in a decade, rising 8.2% year over year (<a href="https://publishingperspectives.com/2021/01/npd-2020-was-the-us-markets-bestselling-year-for-print-in-a-decade-covid19/" target="_blank">Publishing Perspectives</a>, <a href="https://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/by-topic/industry-news/bookselling/article/85256-print-unit-sales-rose-8-2-in-2020.html" target="_blank">Publishers Weekly</a>). The outcome will be determined using print book sales data as provided by The NPD Group (<a href="https://www.npd.com/wps/portal/npd/us/news/press-releases/2021/after-a-slow-start--u-s--print-book-sales-rose-8-2-percent-in-2020--the-npd-group-says/" target="_blank">The NPD Group</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p> | 2022-01-07 | gjopen | ["https://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/by-topic/industry-news/bookselling/article/87633-fiction-drove-small-gain-in-print-book-sales-last-week.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1292847", "https://gcaptain.com/shipping-delays-throw-book-industry-nail-biting-chaos/?subscriber=true&goal=0_f50174ef03-67415303d8-170102337&mc_cid=67415303d8&mc_eid=c74873c672", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1350378", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1314926", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1340027", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1322561", "https://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/search/index.html?q=print+book+sales+2021&submit.x=0&submit.y=0&sortByDate=on", "https://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/by-topic/industry-news/bookselling/article/88068-print-unit-sales-rose-9-7-in-late-november.html", "https://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/by-topic/industry-news/bookselling/article/87305-print-unit-sales-fell-2-3-at-end-of-august.html", "https://qz.com/2059755/book-publishers-warn-of-supply-chain-delays-for-2021-holidays/", "https://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/by-topic/industry-news/bookselling/article/87967-print-units-rose-11-7-in-mid-november.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1325577", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1351722", "https://www.marketplace.org/2021/11/10/supply-chain-snags-hit-books/", "https://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/by-topic/industry-news/bookselling/article/87839-print-units-rose-12-at-october-s-end.html", "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UEYy0btpv3Yqeg1S8BpTvAnCs1KYTq4s/edit#gid=1169327932", "https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/10/28/business/supply-chain-devastation-spreads-bookstores-big-holiday-season-draws-near/?s_campaign=bostonglobe%3Asocialflow%3Atwitter", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1343578", "https://edition.cnn.com/2021/09/21/business/book-publishing-delays-supply-chain-cec/index.html", "https://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/by-topic/industry-news/bookselling/article/87768-unit-sales-of-print-books-rose-7-in-mid-october.html", "https://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/by-topic/industry-news/bookselling/article/87407-print-unit-sales-dipped-in-early-september.html", "https://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/by-topic/industry-news/bookselling/article/87527-unit-sales-up-3-2-in-mid-september.html", "https://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/by-topic/industry-news/bookselling/article/88191-print-book-sales-dip-during-the-week-before-christmas.html"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2021-05-06 | 1.0 | [["2021-05-07", 0.005], ["2021-05-07", 0.01], ["2021-05-07", 0.055], ["2021-05-07", 0.25], ["2021-05-07", 0.325], ["2021-05-07", 0.4], ["2021-05-08", 0.3], ["2021-05-08", 0.275], ["2021-05-08", 0.2], ["2021-05-08", 0.14], ["2021-05-08", 0.13], ["2021-05-08", 0.14], ["2021-05-08", 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["2021-10-19", 0.83], ["2021-10-21", 0.83], ["2021-10-22", 0.83], ["2021-10-22", 0.83], ["2021-10-24", 0.83], ["2021-10-25", 0.83], ["2021-10-27", 0.85], ["2021-10-27", 0.85], ["2021-10-27", 0.85], ["2021-10-30", 0.85], ["2021-10-31", 0.85], ["2021-10-31", 0.85], ["2021-11-01", 0.85], ["2021-11-02", 0.85], ["2021-11-02", 0.85], ["2021-11-03", 0.87], ["2021-11-04", 0.87], ["2021-11-04", 0.87], ["2021-11-04", 0.87], ["2021-11-05", 0.87], ["2021-11-05", 0.88], ["2021-11-06", 0.88], ["2021-11-07", 0.89], ["2021-11-07", 0.9], ["2021-11-08", 0.9], ["2021-11-08", 0.9], ["2021-11-10", 0.9], ["2021-11-10", 0.9], ["2021-11-11", 0.9], ["2021-11-11", 0.9], ["2021-11-11", 0.9], ["2021-11-12", 0.9], ["2021-11-13", 0.9], ["2021-11-14", 0.9], ["2021-11-15", 0.91], ["2021-11-15", 0.91], ["2021-11-16", 0.91], ["2021-11-16", 0.91], ["2021-11-18", 0.92], ["2021-11-18", 0.93], ["2021-11-18", 0.93], ["2021-11-19", 0.93], ["2021-11-19", 0.93], ["2021-11-21", 0.93], ["2021-11-21", 0.935], ["2021-11-22", 0.94], ["2021-11-22", 0.94], ["2021-11-22", 0.94], ["2021-11-23", 0.94], ["2021-11-23", 0.94], ["2021-11-24", 0.94], ["2021-11-26", 0.94], ["2021-11-27", 0.94], ["2021-11-29", 0.945], ["2021-12-01", 0.95], ["2021-12-01", 0.95], ["2021-12-01", 0.95], ["2021-12-01", 0.95], ["2021-12-02", 0.95], ["2021-12-02", 0.95], ["2021-12-02", 0.95], ["2021-12-03", 0.95], ["2021-12-04", 0.95], ["2021-12-05", 0.95], ["2021-12-06", 0.95], ["2021-12-07", 0.95], ["2021-12-07", 0.95], ["2021-12-08", 0.95], ["2021-12-09", 0.95], ["2021-12-09", 0.96], ["2021-12-10", 0.96], ["2021-12-11", 0.96], ["2021-12-12", 0.97], ["2021-12-13", 0.97], ["2021-12-13", 0.97], ["2021-12-13", 0.97], ["2021-12-15", 0.97], ["2021-12-17", 0.97], ["2021-12-19", 0.97], ["2021-12-19", 0.98], ["2021-12-20", 0.98], ["2021-12-21", 0.98], ["2021-12-22", 0.98], ["2021-12-23", 0.98], ["2021-12-23", 0.98], ["2021-12-23", 0.98], ["2021-12-25", 0.98], ["2021-12-25", 0.98], ["2021-12-25", 0.98], ["2021-12-25", 0.98], ["2021-12-25", 0.98], ["2021-12-26", 0.98], ["2021-12-27", 0.985], ["2021-12-27", 0.99], ["2021-12-28", 0.99], ["2021-12-29", 0.99], ["2021-12-29", 0.99], ["2021-12-30", 0.99], ["2021-12-30", 0.99], ["2021-12-30", 0.99], ["2022-01-01", 0.99], ["2022-01-01", 0.99]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2002 | True |
2020-12-31 | Before 1 January 2021, will Apple officially announce a ridesharing partnership with a major automaker? | binary |
<p>Apple has been involved in projects with vehicles in recent years, initially focused on electric vehicles and increasingly on autonomous vehicles (<a href="https://www.macrumors.com/roundup/apple-car/" target="_blank">MacRumors</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-apple-autonomous/apple-buys-self-driving-car-startup-drive-ai-idUSKCN1TR05I" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://www.zdnet.com/article/independence-day-well-be-prisoners-of-our-cars-no-more/" target="_blank">ZD Net</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-apple-china/apple-invests-1-billion-in-chinese-ride-hailing-service-didi-chuxing-idUSKCN0Y404W" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). For the purposes of this question, a "major automaker" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list (<a href="http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf" target="_blank">OICA</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>
| 2021-01-01 | gjopen | ["https://martechseries.com/mobile/mobile-marketing/appsflyer-launches-first-global-attribution-solution-apples-app-clips/", "https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/apple-announces-ambitious-plan-to-produce-electric-cars-by-2024-report", "https://www.techradar.com/in/news/the-apple-car-isnt-just-alive-it-may-launch-as-early-as-2021"] | Not applicable/available for this question. | 2020-05-22 | 0.0 | [["2020-05-22", 0.25], ["2020-05-22", 0.4], ["2020-05-22", 0.5], ["2020-05-22", 0.525], ["2020-05-22", 0.5], ["2020-05-22", 0.375], ["2020-05-22", 0.25], ["2020-05-22", 0.235], ["2020-05-22", 0.25], ["2020-05-23", 0.235], ["2020-05-23", 0.235], ["2020-05-23", 0.21], ["2020-05-23", 0.21], ["2020-05-23", 0.21], ["2020-05-23", 0.195], ["2020-05-23", 0.195], ["2020-05-23", 0.195], ["2020-05-23", 0.22], ["2020-05-23", 0.205], ["2020-05-23", 0.155], ["2020-05-23", 0.15], ["2020-05-23", 0.13], ["2020-05-24", 0.13], ["2020-05-24", 0.13], ["2020-05-24", 0.13], ["2020-05-24", 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