Datasets:

YuehHanChen

/

forecasting_raw

like 2

True

2020-06-15

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1639

<p>Tensions have flared along the disputed border between India and China, with violent clashes reported in early May (<a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/new-delhi-will-make-no-compromises-on-national-security-mea-on-china-border-row/story-zZnQIblG6zQbAqha1iRnZJ.html" target="_blank">Hindustan Times</a>, <a href="https://time.com/5843279/india-china-border/" target="_blank">Time</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/05/28/china-india-border-standoff/" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.<br></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Check our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;or&nbsp;</span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,&nbsp;<a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p> </p>

2020-06-16

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 December 2020?

2020-05-29

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{}

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

1.0

True

2022-05-20

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2301

<p>The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/FB" target="_blank">CNBC</a>). The threshold would not be changed in the event of a stock split (<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stocksplit.asp" target="_blank">Investopedia</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>

2022-05-20

Between 8 March 2022 and 20 May 2022, will shares of Meta (fka Facebook) close above $238.00 per share?

2022-03-09

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["https://volafy.net/equity/FB", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1435611", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1422993", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/25/digital-markets-act-eu-targets-big-tech-with-sweeping-new-antitrust-rules.html", "https://www.nyse.com/markets/hours-calendars", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1416352", "https://preview.redd.it/anis8xmso4w81.jpg?width=768&amp;auto=webp&amp;s=08d813a52720bb6ebac3fb46979803d3b3a70e4e", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/28/bidens-2023-budget-would-hike-taxes-on-the-ultra-rich-and-corporations-boost-defense-spending.html", "https://www.ft.com/content/90c9d0f5-3a8c-4004-8c8c-10b6ff07cf8d", "https://edition.cnn.com/2022/04/11/investing/russia-default-sp/index.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1419031", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/04/twitter-shares-soar-more-than-25percent-after-elon-musk-takes-9percent-stake-in-social-media-company.html", "https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_21_7028", "https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1058330003000387", "https://github.com/kevins139/brier-scores/blob/main/README.md", "https://imgur.com/a/zGeah4T", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buy-write", "https://imgur.com/a/GYBtytG", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Covered_call", "https://www.statista.com/statistics/1029918/facebook-users-russia-age-gender/", "https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2140244", "https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-60959811", "https://www.barrons.com/articles/meta-faces-another-tough-quarter-one-analyst-sees-more-trouble-ahead-51649949068", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2FWBTaIgO1s", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1425018"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2022-06-16

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2228

<p>Interest rate volatility has subsided since the early days of the pandemic, but inflation and other factors could lead to new volatility (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/an-uptick-in-corporate-defaults-is-unlikely" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/corporate-debt-investors-brace-for-tighter-financial-conditions-in-2022-11638217461" target="_blank">MarketWatch</a>). The outcome will be determined using Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for "ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread" (<a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2" target="_blank">FRED</a>). For 1 December 2021, the spread was 3.58%.</p><p> </p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>

2022-06-17

Will the spread between US high-yield corporate bonds and US Treasuries reach or exceed 5.00% before 1 October 2022?

2021-12-17

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["2022-01-15", 0.23], ["2022-01-17", 0.23], ["2022-01-17", 0.22], ["2022-01-18", 0.22], ["2022-01-19", 0.22], ["2022-01-20", 0.235], ["2022-01-20", 0.235], ["2022-01-21", 0.235], ["2022-01-23", 0.25], ["2022-01-23", 0.25], ["2022-01-24", 0.25], ["2022-01-24", 0.25], ["2022-01-25", 0.25], ["2022-01-26", 0.25], ["2022-01-27", 0.245], ["2022-01-27", 0.23], ["2022-01-28", 0.245], ["2022-01-28", 0.24], ["2022-01-29", 0.245], ["2022-01-30", 0.24], ["2022-01-30", 0.24], ["2022-01-31", 0.24], ["2022-01-31", 0.24], ["2022-02-01", 0.24], ["2022-02-01", 0.25], ["2022-02-03", 0.245], ["2022-02-04", 0.25], ["2022-02-07", 0.25], ["2022-02-08", 0.25], ["2022-02-09", 0.25], ["2022-02-10", 0.25], ["2022-02-11", 0.25], ["2022-02-11", 0.25], ["2022-02-11", 0.25], ["2022-02-13", 0.255], ["2022-02-13", 0.25], ["2022-02-14", 0.25], ["2022-02-14", 0.25], ["2022-02-16", 0.25], ["2022-02-16", 0.25], ["2022-02-17", 0.25], ["2022-02-18", 0.25], ["2022-02-18", 0.255], ["2022-02-18", 0.255], ["2022-02-20", 0.255], ["2022-02-21", 0.265], ["2022-02-21", 0.28], ["2022-02-22", 0.3], ["2022-02-22", 0.3], ["2022-02-22", 0.3], ["2022-02-23", 0.3], ["2022-02-24", 0.3], ["2022-02-25", 0.3], ["2022-02-26", 0.3], ["2022-02-28", 0.3], ["2022-02-28", 0.3], ["2022-03-01", 0.315], ["2022-03-01", 0.315], ["2022-03-02", 0.315], ["2022-03-02", 0.315], ["2022-03-02", 0.315], ["2022-03-03", 0.315], ["2022-03-03", 0.33], ["2022-03-03", 0.33], ["2022-03-05", 0.33], ["2022-03-06", 0.33], ["2022-03-07", 0.33], ["2022-03-08", 0.33], ["2022-03-08", 0.33], ["2022-03-08", 0.33], ["2022-03-09", 0.34], ["2022-03-10", 0.35], ["2022-03-10", 0.35], ["2022-03-11", 0.35], ["2022-03-12", 0.35], ["2022-03-13", 0.35], ["2022-03-14", 0.35], ["2022-03-15", 0.35], ["2022-03-16", 0.35], ["2022-03-16", 0.35], ["2022-03-18", 0.35], ["2022-03-18", 0.35], ["2022-03-19", 0.35], ["2022-03-19", 0.35], ["2022-03-21", 0.35], ["2022-03-22", 0.35], ["2022-03-22", 0.35], ["2022-03-23", 0.35], ["2022-03-24", 0.35], ["2022-03-24", 0.34], ["2022-03-25", 0.34], ["2022-03-25", 0.34], ["2022-03-28", 0.34], ["2022-03-29", 0.34], ["2022-03-29", 0.35], ["2022-03-31", 0.35], ["2022-03-31", 0.34], ["2022-04-01", 0.33], ["2022-04-01", 0.33], ["2022-04-02", 0.33], ["2022-04-04", 0.33], ["2022-04-04", 0.33], ["2022-04-05", 0.33], ["2022-04-05", 0.33], ["2022-04-06", 0.33], ["2022-04-06", 0.33], ["2022-04-06", 0.33], ["2022-04-07", 0.33], ["2022-04-08", 0.33], ["2022-04-10", 0.33], ["2022-04-11", 0.33], ["2022-04-12", 0.33], ["2022-04-13", 0.33], ["2022-04-13", 0.33], ["2022-04-13", 0.33], ["2022-04-13", 0.34], ["2022-04-13", 0.35], ["2022-04-14", 0.35], ["2022-04-16", 0.35], ["2022-04-18", 0.35], ["2022-04-18", 0.35], ["2022-04-19", 0.35], ["2022-04-20", 0.35], ["2022-04-22", 0.35], ["2022-04-24", 0.34], ["2022-04-25", 0.34], ["2022-04-27", 0.34], ["2022-04-27", 0.34], ["2022-04-28", 0.34], ["2022-04-29", 0.34], ["2022-04-29", 0.35], ["2022-05-01", 0.355], ["2022-05-01", 0.355], ["2022-05-01", 0.375], ["2022-05-02", 0.375], 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["2022-05-19", 0.61], ["2022-05-20", 0.61], ["2022-05-20", 0.61], ["2022-05-20", 0.61], ["2022-05-20", 0.61], ["2022-05-20", 0.615], ["2022-05-20", 0.615], ["2022-05-21", 0.62], ["2022-05-21", 0.62], ["2022-05-21", 0.64], ["2022-05-22", 0.64], ["2022-05-22", 0.64], ["2022-05-22", 0.64], ["2022-05-23", 0.65], ["2022-05-23", 0.65], ["2022-05-24", 0.665], ["2022-05-24", 0.695], ["2022-05-24", 0.695], ["2022-05-24", 0.72], ["2022-05-24", 0.73], ["2022-05-25", 0.72], ["2022-05-25", 0.72], ["2022-05-25", 0.72], ["2022-05-25", 0.73], ["2022-05-26", 0.73], ["2022-05-26", 0.72], ["2022-05-26", 0.72], ["2022-05-26", 0.73], ["2022-05-27", 0.73], ["2022-05-27", 0.73], ["2022-05-28", 0.73], ["2022-05-29", 0.73], ["2022-05-30", 0.73], ["2022-05-31", 0.73], ["2022-06-01", 0.73], ["2022-06-02", 0.73], ["2022-06-03", 0.73], ["2022-06-03", 0.73], ["2022-06-04", 0.74], ["2022-06-05", 0.75], ["2022-06-06", 0.75], ["2022-06-06", 0.75], ["2022-06-07", 0.75], ["2022-06-07", 0.75], ["2022-06-07", 0.75], ["2022-06-07", 0.75], ["2022-06-08", 0.74], ["2022-06-09", 0.74], ["2022-06-10", 0.74], ["2022-06-10", 0.75], ["2022-06-11", 0.75], ["2022-06-12", 0.75], ["2022-06-13", 0.75], ["2022-06-13", 0.75], ["2022-06-13", 0.75], ["2022-06-13", 0.75], ["2022-06-13", 0.78], ["2022-06-13", 0.78], ["2022-06-13", 0.8], ["2022-06-13", 0.8], ["2022-06-14", 0.8], ["2022-06-14", 0.8], ["2022-06-14", 0.8], ["2022-06-14", 0.8], ["2022-06-14", 0.8], ["2022-06-14", 0.8], ["2022-06-15", 0.8], ["2022-06-16", 0.8], ["2022-06-16", 0.8], ["2022-06-16", 0.8], ["2022-06-16", 0.8], ["2022-06-16", 0.8], ["2022-06-16", 0.8], ["2022-06-16", 0.8]]

["https://fred.stlouisfed.org/categories/32457", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/KCFSI", "https://indices.theice.com/", "https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/zombification-economy", "https://www.theverge.com/2022/5/9/23063499/uber-ceo-slash-costs-hiring-slowdown-ride-hailing-profit", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NFCIRISK", "https://www.icapitalnetwork.com/insights/blog/icapital-market-pulse-parsing-credit-risk-as-rates-rise-and-spreads-widen/", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ANFCI", "https://www.morganstanley.com/im/de-de/intermediary-investor/insights/articles/annus-horribilis.html", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLFSI3", "https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/022616/history-high-yield-bond-meltdowns.asp", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2", "https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y", "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/smccf.htm", "https://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/14/donald-trump-blew-up-the-bond-market-and-changed-everyones-view-of-interest-rates.html", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2SYTW", "https://indices.theice.com/getQuickChart?index=H0A0&amp;currency=LOC#", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NFCILEVERAGE", "https://www.reuters.com/business/huge-selloff-rocks-treasury-markets-yield-curve-inverts-2022-06-13/", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QFRTCASHINFUSNO", "https://seekingalpha.com/article/4514324-sweet-spot-between-yield-and-duration-with-bond-etfs"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

1.0

True

2023-04-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2741

<p>The COVID-19 pandemic hit airlines particularly hard, but the Emirates airline has recovered thus far in its current fiscal year (FY) (<a href="https://www.theemiratesgroup.com/media-centre/emirates-group-announces-record-half-year-performance-for-2022-23/" target="_blank">Emirates Group</a>, <a href="https://simpleflying.com/emirates-group-1-2-billion-profit-h1-2022/" target="_blank">Simple Flying</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using data reported in Emirates Group's (the airline's parent company) annual report for FY 2022-23, expected in the late spring of 2023 (<a href="https://www.theemiratesgroup.com/" target="_blank">Emirates Group</a>). Emirate Group's FY 2022-23 runs from 1 April 2022 to 31 March 2023. For FY 2021-22, Emirates airline reported revenue of AED 59,180 million (<a href="https://c.ekstatic.net/ecl/documents/annual-report/2021-2022.pdf" target="_blank">Emirates Group - 2021-22 Annual Report</a>, see "Revenue and other operating income" on page 179). "AED" are Dirhams, the national currency of the UAE.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2023-05-11

Will Emirates airline revenues for FY 2022-23 reach or exceed the total revenue from FY 2018-19 of AED 97,907 million?

2023-02-02

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["https://gulfnews.com/business/aviation/dubais-emirates-to-post-strong-profit-as-passenger-demand-surges-says-top-official-1.93228241", "https://www.emirates.com/media-centre/emirates-group-announces-record-half-year-performance-for-2022-23/"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

1.0

True

2021-07-20

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1975

<p>After various delays, the Humboldt Forum in Berlin has been completed but remains shuttered due to COVID-19 restrictions (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-humboldt-forum-in-berlin-is-a-new-kind-of-museum" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.thelocal.de/20201216/rebuilt-prussian-palace-scarred-by-history-opens-in-berlin/" target="_blank">The Local (Germany)</a>, <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20210323-germany-extends-covid-19-restrictions-into-april-including-strict-easter-lockdown" target="_blank">France 24</a>, <a href="https://www.humboldtforum.org/en/" target="_blank">Humboldt Forum</a>). The Humboldt Forum opening to the public with restrictions, such as requiring proof of COVID-19 vaccination or setting occupancy limits, would count. Opening only to specific groups (e.g., the press, artists) would not count as opening to the public.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">&nbsp;or&nbsp;</span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,&nbsp;<a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>.&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.2;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 2 April 2021</span>: Only indoor events would count and whether an event charges for attendance would be immaterial.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>

2021-07-20

Will Berlin's Humboldt Forum open to the general public before 1 August 2021?

2021-04-01

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["https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flughafen_Berlin_Brandenburg#Bauskandal", "https://www.humboldtforum.org/", "https://www.humboldtforum.org/en/", "https://berlin.premiumkino.de/", "http://www.hrnww.com/blog/2021/06/15/berlins-humboldt-forum-museum-to-open-to-the-public-on-july-20/", "https://www.regioactive.de/party/endlich-offen-berlin-humboldt-forum-2021-07-20-Zgm1WkDJtw", "https://www.sueddeutsche.de/kultur/humboldt-forum-berlin-sicherheitsmaengel-museen-1.5303217", "https://www.rbb24.de/kultur/beitrag/2021/05/humboldt-forum-baumaengel-eroeffnung-juli-.html", "https://www.berlin.de/en/tickets/miscellaneous/finally-open/2021-07-20-n-a-5a51c91a-45be-4e92-883a-c7d14a47590b/", "https://www.humboldtforum.org/de/jobs/", "https://www.dw.com/en/berlins-controversial-humboldt-forum-opens-its-doors/a-58332615", "https://www.zeit.de/news/2021-05/25/humboldt-forum-oeffnet-mitte-juli-weiter-maengel-in-technik", "https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-lockdown-end-delayed-freedom-day-june-21/", "https://www.dw.com/en/berlins-humboldt-forum-faces-new-criticism/a-57728138", "https://www.humboldtforum.org/en/on-location/", "https://www.visitberlin.de/en/important-information-your-visit-berlin", "https://www.archpaper.com/2021/04/the-humboldt-forum-in-berlin-is-finally-open-but-it-fails-to-inspire/", "https://www.dw.com/en/berlin-palace-opens-its-gates/a-57822667", "https://www.visitberlin.de/en/what-open-berlin", "https://www.berliner-kurier.de/berlin/ohne-worte-schloss-wird-eroeffnet-ohne-das-architekt-und-oberster-spendensammler-reden-li.169348", "https://www.humboldtforum.org/de/", "https://www.humboldtforum.org/en/programm/termin/opening/finally-open-24469/", "https://www.humboldtforum.org/de/besuch-vor-ort/", "https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.dw.com/en/berlins-humboldt-forum-faces-new-criticism/a-57728138", "https://www.dw.com/de/humboldt-forum-berliner-schloss-schl%C3%BCterhof-er%C3%B6ffnet/a-57825229"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

1.0

True

2023-03-17

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2547

<p>As fighting continues in Ukraine, there are continuing concerns that Russia may deploy nuclear weapons westward in the region (<a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/leader-belarusian-warplanes-made-ready-carry-nukes-88894273" target="_blank">ABC News</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-60664169" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/02/28/eu-decries-potential-russian-nuclear-weapons-deployment-after-belarus-referendum/" target="_blank">DefenseNews</a>). Ukraine includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea. For the purposes of this question, Russia's detonation of a nuclear device in either Belarus or Ukraine would be considered a Russian public announcement that it moved nuclear weapons into either Belarus or Ukraine.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2023-03-17

Between 16 September 2022 and 16 March 2023, will Russia publicly announce that it has moved nuclear weapons into either Belarus or Ukraine?

2022-09-16

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["2022-09-22", 0.1664], ["2022-09-22", 0.1625], ["2022-09-23", 0.1886], ["2022-09-23", 0.1876], ["2022-09-23", 0.191], ["2022-09-23", 0.1933], ["2022-09-23", 0.2194], ["2022-09-23", 0.243], ["2022-09-23", 0.2459], ["2022-09-24", 0.2404], ["2022-09-24", 0.2573], ["2022-09-25", 0.2565], ["2022-09-25", 0.2419], ["2022-09-26", 0.2146], ["2022-09-26", 0.1919], ["2022-09-27", 0.193], ["2022-09-27", 0.2], ["2022-09-27", 0.2007], ["2022-09-28", 0.2226], ["2022-09-28", 0.2226], ["2022-09-28", 0.2178], ["2022-09-29", 0.223], ["2022-09-29", 0.2237], ["2022-09-29", 0.2479], ["2022-09-29", 0.2596], ["2022-09-29", 0.2586], ["2022-09-30", 0.2524], ["2022-09-30", 0.2617], ["2022-09-30", 0.2603], ["2022-10-01", 0.2367], ["2022-10-01", 0.237], ["2022-10-02", 0.2473], ["2022-10-03", 0.25], ["2022-10-04", 0.255], ["2022-10-04", 0.2587], ["2022-10-04", 0.2387], ["2022-10-04", 0.263], ["2022-10-06", 0.25], ["2022-10-06", 0.248], ["2022-10-07", 0.251], ["2022-10-07", 0.2517], ["2022-10-07", 0.2617], ["2022-10-07", 0.2597], ["2022-10-07", 0.264], ["2022-10-07", 0.2643], ["2022-10-08", 0.279], ["2022-10-08", 0.28], ["2022-10-08", 0.2813], ["2022-10-08", 0.2719], ["2022-10-08", 0.2735], ["2022-10-09", 0.2735], ["2022-10-09", 0.2742], ["2022-10-10", 0.2619], ["2022-10-10", 0.2587], ["2022-10-10", 0.2613], ["2022-10-10", 0.2619], ["2022-10-11", 0.2713], ["2022-10-11", 0.2847], ["2022-10-11", 0.2847], ["2022-10-11", 0.2828], ["2022-10-12", 0.285], ["2022-10-12", 0.2822], ["2022-10-13", 0.2816], ["2022-10-13", 0.2694], ["2022-10-14", 0.2597], ["2022-10-14", 0.2566], ["2022-10-14", 0.285], ["2022-10-14", 0.2822], ["2022-10-15", 0.2763], ["2022-10-16", 0.2759], ["2022-10-17", 0.2763], ["2022-10-17", 0.2639], ["2022-10-17", 0.2588], ["2022-10-17", 0.2527], ["2022-10-18", 0.2312], ["2022-10-18", 0.2288], ["2022-10-18", 0.2288], ["2022-10-19", 0.2288], ["2022-10-20", 0.2303], ["2022-10-20", 0.2206], ["2022-10-20", 0.2326], ["2022-10-20", 0.2341], ["2022-10-21", 0.2356], ["2022-10-22", 0.2359], ["2022-10-22", 0.2326], ["2022-10-23", 0.2291], ["2022-10-23", 0.228], ["2022-10-24", 0.208], ["2022-10-24", 0.2351], ["2022-10-24", 0.2357], ["2022-10-24", 0.2377], ["2022-10-25", 0.238], ["2022-10-25", 0.2383], ["2022-10-25", 0.2417], ["2022-10-26", 0.2471], ["2022-10-27", 0.2463], ["2022-10-27", 0.2486], ["2022-10-28", 0.2469], ["2022-10-28", 0.2474], ["2022-10-28", 0.2489], ["2022-10-29", 0.252], ["2022-10-30", 0.252], ["2022-10-30", 0.25], ["2022-10-31", 0.2758], ["2022-11-01", 0.2761], ["2022-11-01", 0.275], ["2022-11-02", 0.275], ["2022-11-03", 0.275], ["2022-11-03", 0.2708], ["2022-11-04", 0.2708], ["2022-11-05", 0.243], ["2022-11-05", 0.2414], ["2022-11-06", 0.2414], ["2022-11-07", 0.2359], ["2022-11-07", 0.2357], ["2022-11-07", 0.2332], ["2022-11-08", 0.2303], ["2022-11-08", 0.23], ["2022-11-08", 0.2278], ["2022-11-09", 0.2273], ["2022-11-10", 0.2254], ["2022-11-10", 0.2254], ["2022-11-11", 0.2273], ["2022-11-11", 0.2278], ["2022-11-12", 0.2276], ["2022-11-12", 0.2222], ["2022-11-13", 0.2192], ["2022-11-13", 0.2189], ["2022-11-14", 0.2135], ["2022-11-14", 0.2124], ["2022-11-15", 0.2074], ["2022-11-16", 0.2063], ["2022-11-17", 0.2066], ["2022-11-17", 0.2039], ["2022-11-17", 0.2024], ["2022-11-18", 0.2], ["2022-11-19", 0.2], ["2022-11-20", 0.1974], ["2022-11-21", 0.1908], ["2022-11-21", 0.19], ["2022-11-22", 0.19], ["2022-11-23", 0.1889], ["2022-11-24", 0.1855], ["2022-11-25", 0.1855], ["2022-11-26", 0.185], ["2022-11-27", 0.1839], ["2022-11-27", 0.171], ["2022-11-28", 0.1705], ["2022-11-29", 0.1674], ["2022-11-29", 0.1672], ["2022-11-30", 0.1664], ["2022-12-01", 0.1633], ["2022-12-02", 0.1585], ["2022-12-03", 0.1585], ["2022-12-04", 0.1585], ["2022-12-04", 0.1556], ["2022-12-06", 0.1515], ["2022-12-07", 0.1515], ["2022-12-08", 0.1263], ["2022-12-09", 0.127], ["2022-12-09", 0.127], ["2022-12-10", 0.1253], ["2022-12-10", 0.1253], ["2022-12-11", 0.1275], ["2022-12-12", 0.1288], ["2022-12-12", 0.1278], ["2022-12-13", 0.1278], ["2022-12-14", 0.1278], ["2022-12-15", 0.1275], ["2022-12-15", 0.1283], ["2022-12-16", 0.1275], ["2022-12-16", 0.1273], ["2022-12-17", 0.1285], ["2022-12-17", 0.1285], ["2022-12-18", 0.122], ["2022-12-19", 0.122], ["2022-12-19", 0.1044], ["2022-12-20", 0.1046], ["2022-12-21", 0.1093], ["2022-12-22", 0.1078], ["2022-12-23", 0.1076], ["2022-12-24", 0.1076], ["2022-12-26", 0.1071], ["2022-12-27", 0.1066], ["2022-12-28", 0.1059], ["2022-12-29", 0.1017], ["2022-12-29", 0.1021], ["2023-01-01", 0.1021], ["2023-01-02", 0.101], ["2023-01-03", 0.101], ["2023-01-03", 0.0957], ["2023-01-04", 0.0955], ["2023-01-04", 0.0955], ["2023-01-04", 0.0964], ["2023-01-05", 0.096], ["2023-01-06", 0.0948], ["2023-01-07", 0.0974], ["2023-01-07", 0.0971], ["2023-01-07", 0.0947], ["2023-01-08", 0.0937], ["2023-01-08", 0.0942], ["2023-01-09", 0.094], ["2023-01-09", 0.0928], ["2023-01-10", 0.0928], ["2023-01-11", 0.0905], ["2023-01-12", 0.0888], ["2023-01-12", 0.0884], ["2023-01-13", 0.0943], ["2023-01-14", 0.0943], ["2023-01-16", 0.0932], ["2023-01-16", 0.0955], ["2023-01-17", 0.0957], ["2023-01-19", 0.0936], ["2023-01-19", 0.0918], ["2023-01-20", 0.09], ["2023-01-20", 0.0893], ["2023-01-21", 0.0926], ["2023-01-21", 0.0924], ["2023-01-23", 0.0922], ["2023-01-23", 0.092], ["2023-01-24", 0.0887], ["2023-01-24", 0.0666], ["2023-01-25", 0.0666], ["2023-01-25", 0.0666], ["2023-01-26", 0.0653], ["2023-01-26", 0.0843], ["2023-01-28", 0.0836], ["2023-01-29", 0.0832], ["2023-01-30", 0.0832], ["2023-02-01", 0.0826], ["2023-02-01", 0.0802], ["2023-02-01", 0.0802], ["2023-02-03", 0.08], ["2023-02-04", 0.08], ["2023-02-05", 0.0796], ["2023-02-07", 0.0796], ["2023-02-07", 0.0774], ["2023-02-08", 0.0774], ["2023-02-08", 0.0698], ["2023-02-09", 0.0681], ["2023-02-10", 0.0706], ["2023-02-11", 0.07], ["2023-02-11", 0.07], ["2023-02-12", 0.0688], ["2023-02-14", 0.0667], ["2023-02-14", 0.0658], ["2023-02-15", 0.0654], ["2023-02-16", 0.065], ["2023-02-16", 0.0648], ["2023-02-18", 0.0648], ["2023-02-19", 0.0544], ["2023-02-19", 0.056], ["2023-02-20", 0.0558], ["2023-02-21", 0.0558], ["2023-02-22", 0.0556], ["2023-02-22", 0.0556], ["2023-02-23", 0.0577], ["2023-02-23", 0.0577], ["2023-02-25", 0.0577], ["2023-02-25", 0.0571], ["2023-02-26", 0.0559], ["2023-02-27", 0.0553], ["2023-02-27", 0.0512], ["2023-02-28", 0.0506], ["2023-02-28", 0.0504], ["2023-03-01", 0.0492], ["2023-03-02", 0.0454], ["2023-03-02", 0.0452], ["2023-03-03", 0.0452], ["2023-03-03", 0.0426], ["2023-03-04", 0.0406], ["2023-03-04", 0.0398], ["2023-03-05", 0.0398], ["2023-03-06", 0.0396], ["2023-03-06", 0.0394], ["2023-03-07", 0.0369], ["2023-03-08", 0.0359], ["2023-03-09", 0.0359], ["2023-03-09", 0.0359], ["2023-03-09", 0.0353], ["2023-03-10", 0.0351], ["2023-03-10", 0.0331], ["2023-03-10", 0.0333], ["2023-03-10", 0.0333], ["2023-03-11", 0.0327], ["2023-03-12", 0.0324], ["2023-03-12", 0.0319], ["2023-03-12", 0.0127], ["2023-03-13", 0.0127], ["2023-03-14", 0.0121], ["2023-03-14", 0.0117], ["2023-03-14", 0.0112], ["2023-03-14", 0.0106], ["2023-03-15", 0.0106], ["2023-03-16", 0.0106], ["2023-03-16", 0.0104], ["2023-03-16", 0.0104], ["2023-03-17", 0.0104]]

["https://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/news/2022/08/10/935433-v-belorussii-zayavili-o-gotovnosti-sotrudnichat", "https://energetyka24.com/elektroenergetyka/wiadomosci/ukrainski-minister-energii-uspokaja-system-energetyczny-wytrzyma", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1544723", "https://defence24.pl/wojna-na-ukrainie-raport-specjalny-defence24/na-krymie-sa-nosniki-broni-jadrowej", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/13/russian-poll-peace-crimea/", "https://twitter.com/DBDesRoches/status/1566053320434896898", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/19/belarus-ukraine-war-putin-meets-lukashenko", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1515965", "https://www.aa.com.tr/ru/%D0%BC%D0%B8%D1%80/%D0%BC%D0%B8%D0%BD%D1%81%D0%BA-%D1", "https://polskieradio24.pl/42/3167/artykul/3083097,uszkodzona-infrastruktura-energetyczna-na-ukrainie-pse-czekaja-na-podlaczenie-ej-chmielnicka", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1521013", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-says-moscow-has-deal-with-belarus-station-nuclear-weapons-there-tass-2023-03-25/", "https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/03/nuclear-weapons-convoy-sparks-fears-putin-could-preparing-test/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons#United_States", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-ria-state-agency-reports-fuel-tank-fire-kerch-bridge-crimea-2022-10-08/", "https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/88317", "https://eurasia.expert/belarus-i-rossiya-podgotovili-sovmestnyy-answer-na-ugrozu-raketnogo-udara-nato/", "https://iz.ru/1405316/2022-10-04/v-minoborony-belorussii-zaiavili-o-podgotovke-nato-k-voine", "https://eng.belta.by/politics/view/belarus-mfa-finland-sweden-joining-nato-is-strategic-mistake-151462-2022/", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2548-before-1-april-2023-will-russia-detonate-a-nuclear-device-outside-of-russian-territory-or-airspace", "https://www.accuweather.com/en/ua/kyiv/324505/december-weather/324505?year=2022", "https://twitter.com/apmassaro3/status/1579049841967378432", "https://defence24.pl/wojna-na-ukrainie-raport-specjalny-defence24/rosja-szykuje-sie-do-ponownej-ofensywy-na-ukrainie-przy-pomocy-samolotow-i-smiglowcow", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/29/referendums-sign-russia-will-continues-offensive-analysts", "https://iz.ru/1377694/2022-08-10/v-belorussii-ukazali-na-gotovnost-sotrudnichat-s-nato"]

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Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2023-03-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2715

<p>The outcome will be determined using information as reported by the ISW "as of" 1 March 2023 (<a href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375" target="_blank">ISW</a>). For the purposes of this question, the "following major cities in Ukraine" are Alchevsk, Berdiansk, Donetsk, Horlivka, Kerch, Luhansk, Lysychansk, Makiivka, Mariupol, Melitopol, Sevastopol, Sievierodonetsk, Simferopol, Yenakiieve, and Yevpatoria. Any "Reported Ukrainian Partisan Warfare" would be immaterial. The entire city must be out of "Assessed Russian-controlled Ukrainian Territory" to count.</p><p><i><b>NOTE</b>: Questions in the Fujitsu Hivemind Challenge have been partly crowdsourced through a research project and consequently may have experimental framings. </i></p><p> </p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span><br></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 17 January 2023</span>: We have made a slight adjustment to the stem to make it clearer as to that to which "two" refers.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2023-03-01

Will any two of the following major cities in Ukraine not be within an area of "Assessed Russian-controlled Ukrainian Territory" as of 1 March 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)?

2023-01-16

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["https://news.yahoo.com/loss-soledar-ukrainian-positions-bakhmut-091058838.html", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/08/ukraine-russia-counteroffensive-abrams-tanks-putin-war/", "https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/01/25/world/russia-ukraine-news#getting-tanks-to-the-front-lines-looms-as-a-challenge-for-ukraine", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/01/17/ukraine-war-front-line-2023/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-18/us-weighs-stryker-vehicles-for-ukraine-aid-package-set-for-friday?sref=x7nYEkiY", "https://www.accuweather.com/en/ua/donetsk/323030/january-weather/323030", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-does-not-rule-out-sending-leclerc-tanks-ukraine-macron-2023-01-22/", "https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3818361-russia-is-planning-a-major-offensive-heres-what-that-might-look-like/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/18/us/politics/ukraine-crimea-military.html", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682", "https://www.ft.com/content/f7704b8d-eca3-4d32-82d8-6b188607844f", "https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-15-2023", "https://asiatimes.com/2022/12/ukraine-war-general-mud-retreats-marshal-frost-advances/", "https://news.yahoo.com/russia-deploying-nuclear-missile-carriers-092000218.html", "https://on.ft.com/3jmx5ZV", "https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/23/u-s-ukraine-russia-military-gains-00079041", "https://time.com/6245649/us-bradleys-vehicles-ukraine/", "https://militarland.net/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-20/germany-says-it-could-move-quickly-to-send-tanks-to-ukraine?sref=x7nYEkiY", "https://www.accuweather.com/en/ua/donetsk/323030/december-weather/323030?year=2022", "https://www.ft.com/content/bb0865cd-e52a-463b-9aae-05264f74e477", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-20/germany-allows-ukraine-preparatory-training-on-leopard-tanks?sref=x7nYEkiY"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2022-01-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1910

Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high (<a href="https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366" target="_blank">BBC</a>). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.<p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>

2022-01-03

Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?

2021-01-21

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0.04], ["2021-01-28", 0.05], ["2021-01-28", 0.05], ["2021-01-28", 0.05], ["2021-01-29", 0.05], ["2021-01-30", 0.05], ["2021-01-31", 0.05], ["2021-02-01", 0.04], ["2021-02-02", 0.05], ["2021-02-03", 0.045], ["2021-02-05", 0.04], ["2021-02-05", 0.04], ["2021-02-06", 0.04], ["2021-02-08", 0.04], ["2021-02-09", 0.04], ["2021-02-10", 0.045], ["2021-02-12", 0.05], ["2021-02-14", 0.05], ["2021-02-20", 0.04], ["2021-02-21", 0.05], ["2021-02-23", 0.05], ["2021-02-24", 0.05], ["2021-02-25", 0.05], ["2021-02-26", 0.05], ["2021-03-01", 0.05], ["2021-03-05", 0.05], ["2021-03-06", 0.05], ["2021-03-09", 0.05], ["2021-03-09", 0.05], ["2021-03-12", 0.05], ["2021-03-13", 0.05], ["2021-03-15", 0.05], ["2021-03-16", 0.05], ["2021-03-18", 0.05], ["2021-03-20", 0.05], ["2021-03-22", 0.05], ["2021-03-23", 0.05], ["2021-03-24", 0.05], ["2021-03-25", 0.05], ["2021-03-29", 0.05], ["2021-03-31", 0.05], ["2021-04-01", 0.05], ["2021-04-03", 0.045], ["2021-04-05", 0.045], ["2021-04-07", 0.04], ["2021-04-08", 0.04], 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["2021-06-28", 0.025], ["2021-06-29", 0.025], ["2021-06-30", 0.025], ["2021-07-01", 0.03], ["2021-07-01", 0.03], ["2021-07-05", 0.03], ["2021-07-05", 0.03], ["2021-07-07", 0.03], ["2021-07-07", 0.03], ["2021-07-12", 0.03], ["2021-07-12", 0.03], ["2021-07-13", 0.03], ["2021-07-15", 0.025], ["2021-07-19", 0.025], ["2021-07-21", 0.02], ["2021-07-25", 0.02], ["2021-07-25", 0.02], ["2021-07-27", 0.02], ["2021-07-28", 0.02], ["2021-07-29", 0.02], ["2021-07-30", 0.02], ["2021-07-30", 0.02], ["2021-07-31", 0.02], ["2021-08-02", 0.02], ["2021-08-03", 0.02], ["2021-08-08", 0.02], ["2021-08-10", 0.02], ["2021-08-10", 0.02], ["2021-08-16", 0.02], ["2021-08-17", 0.02], ["2021-08-23", 0.02], ["2021-08-24", 0.02], ["2021-08-30", 0.02], ["2021-09-02", 0.02], ["2021-09-08", 0.02], ["2021-09-09", 0.02], ["2021-09-10", 0.02], ["2021-09-11", 0.02], ["2021-09-11", 0.02], ["2021-09-14", 0.02], ["2021-09-16", 0.02], ["2021-09-17", 0.02], ["2021-09-18", 0.02], ["2021-09-20", 0.02], ["2021-09-21", 0.02], 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["2021-12-05", 0.01], ["2021-12-06", 0.01], ["2021-12-07", 0.01], ["2021-12-08", 0.01], ["2021-12-09", 0.01], ["2021-12-10", 0.01], ["2021-12-11", 0.01], ["2021-12-13", 0.0], ["2021-12-13", 0.0], ["2021-12-15", 0.0], ["2021-12-17", 0.0], ["2021-12-20", 0.0], ["2021-12-20", 0.0], ["2021-12-21", 0.0], ["2021-12-22", 0.0], ["2021-12-23", 0.0], ["2021-12-25", 0.0], ["2021-12-26", 0.0], ["2021-12-27", 0.0], ["2021-12-28", 0.0], ["2021-12-29", 0.0], ["2021-12-29", 0.0], ["2021-12-30", 0.0], ["2021-12-31", 0.0], ["2021-12-31", 0.0], ["2022-01-01", 0.0]]

["https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2021/01/20/Israeli-Syrian-officials-discussed-Iran-and-its-militias-presence-in-Syria-Report", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1220808", "https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/world/biden-renews-offer-to-return-to-full-nuclear-deal-if-iran-does-the-same-7492501.html", "https://apnews.com/article/persian-gulf-tensions-middle-east-iran-business-evacuations-f3e8126a8603326e1abc4705c6629fcd", "https://nypost.com/2020/12/02/biden-says-hell-try-to-return-to-iran-deal-keep-china-deal/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Qasem_Soleimani", "https://www.niacouncil.org/news/iran-to-limit-nuclear-inspections/", "https://direct.mit.edu/isec/article/33/1/82/11939/Closing-Time-Assessing-the-Iranian-Threat-to-the", "https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202103/1219537.shtml", "https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-relations-iran-1953-2021", "https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/10/us-ship-encounter-iranian-boats-486637", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zCorSqB-UQw", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zHiXgZRm_dU", "https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/confrontation-between-united-states-and-iran", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93United_States_relations", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%932021_Persian_Gulf_crisis#January_2021", "https://youtu.be/wM8Mxzc_HqI", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=alkhi0jouFE", "https://www.npr.org/2021/11/28/1058533008/iran-nuclear-deal-talks-us", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Praying_Mantis", "https://bit.ly/3tDpjJW", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1269825", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-48119109", "https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/31/middleeast/iran-israel-tanker-attack-drone-oman-intl/index.html", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/joewalsh/2021/04/27/us-navy-ship-fired-warning-shots-at-iranian-boats-after-close-encounter/"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2020-06-22

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1551

<p>The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) between Russia and the United States entered into force on 5 February 2011 and is scheduled to remain in force for ten years (<a href="https://worldin.economist.com/article/17311/edition2020why-america-and-russia-should-extend-key-nuclear-deal" target="_blank">Economist</a>). There is an option to extend it for up to five years upon the agreement of both parties, or a new deal could be negotiated (<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/05/politics/us-russia-nuclear-arms-control/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/R41219.pdf" target="_blank">Federation of American Scientists</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;or&nbsp;</span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,&nbsp;<a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>

2020-06-23

Will formal negotiations between Russia and the United States on an extension, modification, or replacement for the New START treaty begin before 1 October 2020?

2020-03-05

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{}

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

1.0

True

2020-08-05

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1691

<p>The oil &amp; gas firm’s next quarterly earnings release is expected in late July/early August. The outcome will be determined using the closing price on 5 August 2020 as reported by Bloomberg (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CVX:US" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>). On 7 July 2020 the closing price of Chevron stock was $86.31.<br></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused?&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Check our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;or&nbsp;</span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,&nbsp;<a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p><i>This is a companion to the ordinal&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1693-will-the-closing-price-of-chevron-stock-be-higher-on-5-august-2020-than-it-was-on-7-july-2020" target="_blank">#1693</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p> </p>

2020-08-06

Will the closing price of Chevron stock be higher on 5 August 2020 than it was on 7 July 2020?

2020-07-08

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{}

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

1.0

True

2021-06-17

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1947

<p>The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) has been conducting rolling surveys of companies around the world on the state of business travel during the COVID-19 pandemic (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/some-executives-cant-wait-to-hit-the-road-again" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls" target="_blank">GTBA</a>). The outcome will be determined using GBTA's COVID-19 Member Poll Results and would close upon the first survey released in August 2021, if not sooner (<a href="https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls" target="_blank">GBTA</a>). Among companies that have canceled or suspended most or all international trips, 7% planned to resume international business travel in the near future according to the February 2021 survey (<a href="https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-results-021821.pdf" target="_blank">GBTA - Poll Results 18 February 2021</a>, see questions 20 and 21, <a href="https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-key-highlights-021821.pdf" target="_blank">GTBA - Key Highlights 18 February 2021</a>, see infographics on pages 4, 7, and 8).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">&nbsp;or&nbsp;</span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,&nbsp;<a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>.&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>

2021-06-18

Will the percentage of Global Business Travel Association survey respondents planning to resume international business travel in the near future (next 1-3 months) reach 20% or higher before September 2021?

2021-02-23

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["https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/01/28/960901166/how-is-the-covid-19-vaccination-campaign-going-in-your-state", "https://www.wired.com/story/hololens-mesh-microsoft-ignite-2021/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1240020", "https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/04/30/a-proclamation-on-the-suspension-of-entry-as-nonimmigrants-of-certain-additional-persons-who-pose-a-risk-of-transmitting-coronavirus-disease-2019/", "https://www.traveldailymedia.com/81-of-global-leaders-feel-business-travel-to-be-more-important-than-ever-now/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/03/world/americas/brazil-covid-variant.html", "https://www.amexglobalbusinesstravel.com/de/the-atlas/international-business-travel-stats-2014/", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/adigaskell/2021/12/29/the-future-of-business-travel/?sh=5567974e2e09", "https://wttc.org/Research/Recovery-Dashboard", "https://www.stratosjets.com/blog/business-travel-statistics/", "https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Covid%20Poll/Coronavirus_Poll_April_22_21.pdf", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/danielreed/2020/10/07/down-70-from-last-year-business-travel-demand-wont-bounce-back-in-2021-and-maybe-not-for-years/?sh=493bcab11849", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1251487", "https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/", "https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-results-031821.pdf", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1250312", "https://www.theguardian.pe.ca/business/reuters/global-business-travel-to-grow-21-in-2021-trade-group-forecasts-547813/", "https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/06/02/1025633/seven-eu-countries-just-got-a-digital-vaccine-passport/", "https://www.texastribune.org/2021/03/02/texas-coronavirus-mask-mandate/"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

1.0

True

2023-01-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2175

<p>China and the GCC began negotiations for a free trade agreement in 2005 (<a href="http://fta.mofcom.gov.cn/enarticle/engcc/engccnews/200911/1638_1.html" target="_blank">China Ministry of Commerce</a>, <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/china-is-happy-about-the-abraham-accords-and-the-gcc-crisis-coming-to-an-end/" target="_blank">Atlantic Council</a>, <a href="https://www.aninews.in/news/world/asia/chinese-saudi-arabian-fms-talk-over-phone-on-ties-cooperation20211017225922/" target="_blank">ANI News</a>, <a href="https://www.gcc-sg.org/en-us/AboutGCC/MemberStates/pages/Home.aspx" target="_blank">GCC</a>). The signing of an FTA or the announcement of an agreement in principle (see EU-Mercosur announcement) would count, and ratification would be immaterial (e.g., <a href="https://www.mfat.govt.nz/en/trade/free-trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements-concluded-but-not-in-force/regional-comprehensive-economic-partnership-rcep/rcep-overview" target="_blank">New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48807161" target="_blank">BBC</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2023-01-01

Before 1 January 2023, will negotiations on a China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) free trade agreement be completed?

2021-10-28

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["https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-01-10/Gulf-FMs-arrive-in-Beijing-in-positive-push-for-China-GCC-FTA-talks-16I4k2uMHOo/index.html", "http://www.china.org.cn/business/2022-05/13/content_78215836.htm", "https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202209/t20220921_10768898.html", "https://strategiecs.com/en/analyses/negotiations-to-sign-free-trade-agreement-between-the-gulf-cooperation-council-and-china-horizons-and-challenges", "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-travel-saudi-arabia-israel-west-bank-meet-with-saudi-crown-prince-mohammed-bin-salman/", "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exclusive-saudi-arabia-doubles-q2-russian-fuel-oil-imports-power-generation-2022-07-14/", "http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202204/16/WS625a023ca310fd2b29e57517.html", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-61831193", "http://fta.mofcom.gov.cn/enarticle/engcc/engccnews/200911/1638_1.html", "https://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202209/21/WS632afde3a310fd2b29e7900f.html"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2023-01-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2171

<p>On 22 March 2021, the Council imposed restrictive measures against four Chinese officials and one Chinese entity for human rights abuses in Xinjiang, the first such sanctions since the Tiananmen Square crackdown in 1989 (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56487162" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-china-sanctions/eu-agrees-china-sanctions-over-xinjiang-abuses-first-in-three-decades-idUSKBN2BE1AI" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=uriserv%3AOJ.LI.2021.099.01.0001.01.ENG&amp;toc=OJ%3AL%3A2021%3A099I%3ATOC" target="_blank">EUR-Lex</a>, <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/banking-and-finance/international-relations/restrictive-measures-sanctions_en" target="_blank">European Commission</a>). The imposition of restrictive measures against additional Chinese entities and Chinese individuals under the existing restrictive measures regulation would count.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2023-01-01

Between 30 October 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the Council of the European Union impose new restrictive measures (sanctions) on China over human rights violations and abuses in Xinjiang?

2021-10-27

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["https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-62744522", "https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3177699/lawmakers-pressure-eu-full-ban-trade-goods-made-forced-labour", "https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3185358/chinas-president-xi-visits-xinjiang-first-time-eight-years", "https://www.barrons.com/news/china-must-grant-all-in-xinjiang-their-full-human-rights-germany-01662024308", "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-8df450b3-5d6d-4ed8-bdcc-bd99137eadc3", "https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/B-9-2022-0310_EN.html", "https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/rights-chief-hints-report-xinjiang-miss-deadline-88832998", "https://www.ft.com/content/8ebd3114-ab7b-4345-be0d-9ed57ca8daf2", "https://www.xinjiangpolicefiles.org/research-reports/", "https://www.eeas.europa.eu/_en", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-09/china-deserves-new-sanctions-over-xinjiang-eu-parliament-says", "https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2021/12/06/eu-global-human-rights-sanctions-regime-annual-review-of-annex/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_Police_Files", "https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/eu-has-new-powerful-tool-protect-human-rights-eu-global-human-rights-sanctions-regime-0_en", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/eu-proposes-banning-products-made-with-forced-labour-2022-09-14/", "https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32021R0478&amp;from=EN", "https://www.politico.eu/article/france-china-measures-lithuania-new-trade-weapons/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/china/exclusive-china-seeks-stop-un-rights-chief-releasing-xinjiang-report-document-2022-07-19", "https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/12/14/statement-by-press-secretary-jen-psaki-on-the-uyghur-forced-labor-prevention-act/", "https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/documents/countries/2022-08-31/22-08-31-final-assesment.pdf", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/31/world/asia/un-china-xinjiang-uyghurs.html"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2023-02-26

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2647

<p>Elon Musk announced that Trump's Twitter account was reactivated after a poll held on the site, but Trump has thus far said that he has no interest in returning to Twitter (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/20/trump-snubs-twitter-after-musk-announces-reactivation-of-his-account.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump" target="_blank">Twitter</a>). Retweets would not count, and a tweet that is immediately deleted or removed would count so long as there is credible reporting that the tweet occurred. Claims that a tweet was the result of a hack would be immaterial.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2023-02-26

Will there be a new tweet on former President Donald Trump's Twitter account, @realdonaldtrump, before 26 February 2023?

2022-11-24

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["https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/donald-trump-ditch-truth-social-for-twitter-facebook-1234665307/", "https://twitter.com/Al_Drago/status/1611580635969118209?s=20&amp;t=OZwJAf3660wfvWvyDw9ZEw", "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2022/12/03/elon-musk-and-matt-taibbi-release-twitter-docs-hunter-biden-tapes/10826408002/", "https://www.axios.com/2022/12/03/trump-election-fraud-constitution", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-make-first-2024-campaign-appearance-south-carolina-2023-01-17/", "https://www.axios.com/2022/12/16/trump-nft-major-announcement", "https://qz.com/donald-trump-is-returning-to-facebook-and-twitter-if-tr-1850032515", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/elon-musk-says-time-for-donald-trump-to-sail-into-the-sunset-issues-this-warning-to-democrats/ar-AA15IMUS", "https://gizmodo.com/donald-trump-truth-social-facebook-sleazy-snake-oil-ads-1850040614%5D", "https://www.mediaite.com/trump/trump-is-reportedly-plotting-his-return-to-twitter-and-facebook-with-a-team-already-crafting-his-first-tweet/", "https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/hacker-claims-to-be-selling-twitter-data-of-400-million-users/", "https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/dec/26/hack-of-twitter-uk-education-secretary-gillian-keegan-changes-profile-picture-elon-musk", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trumps-fundraising-presidential-bid-gets-off-modest-start-2023-02-01/", "https://www.insider.com/trump-kevin-mccarthy-claiming-credit-for-becoming-speaker-2023-1", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_States_elections", "https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2023/01/if-trump-returns-to-twitter-and-facebook-his-own-social-media-company-could-be-screwed/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/12/08/five-reasons-trump-not-on-twitter/", "https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-2024-deposition-lies-truth-social-desantis-b2264299.html", "https://www.axios.com/2022/12/05/elon-musk-trump-twitter-files-constitution", "https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-63725948", "https://www.socialtracker.io/toplists/top-100-twitter-users-by-followers/", "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/donald-trump-prepares-return-facebook-twitter-rcna65809", "https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-twitter-return-facebook-b2264494.html", "https://gizmodo.com/donald-trump-truth-social-facebook-sleazy-snake-oil-ads-1850040614", "https://www.facebook.com/groups/1539381793051209"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2020-05-07

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1529

<p>On 30 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General declared a PHEIC regarding COVID-19 (<a href="https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/30/who-declares-coronavirus-outbreak-a-global-health-emergency/" target="_blank">Statnews</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global/2020/jan/30/coronavirus-what-other-public-health-emergencies-has-the-who-declared" target="_blank">Guardian</a>, <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/what-are-the-international-health-regulations-and-emergency-committees" target="_blank">WHO</a>). The Emergency Committee is due to reconvene within three months or earlier from the date of the declaration to review the current epidemiological situation (<a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/30-01-2020-statement-on-the-second-meeting-of-the-international-health-regulations-(2005)-emergency-committee-regarding-the-outbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov)" target="_blank">WHO</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;or&nbsp;</span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,&nbsp;<a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>

2020-05-07

Will a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) declaration pertaining to the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) be in effect as of 6 May 2020?

2020-02-14

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{}

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

1.0

True

2021-05-31

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1990

<p>As part of the COVID-19 recovery plan called the "Next Generation EU" (NGEU), an amendment of the Own Resources Decision has been proposed (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-european-commission-will-turn-on-the-spending-taps" target="_blank">Economist</a>,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/45109/210720-euco-final-conclusions-en.pdf" target="_blank">European Council</a>, <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-new-boost-for-jobs-growth-and-investment/file-mff-post-2020-own-resources" target="_blank">European Parliament</a>, <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_20_935" target="_blank">European Commission</a>). An amendment of the Own Resources Decision requires approval by all Member States in accordance with their constitutional requirements (<a href="https://taxnews.ey.com/news/2020-1869-european-council-adopts-conclusions-on-recovery-plan-and-eu-budget-for-2021-2027-including-agreement-on-introduction-of-new-taxes" target="_blank">Ernst &amp; Young</a>, <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_20_1024" target="_blank">European Commission</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/german-court-rejects-bid-to-block-eu-recovery-fund/" target="_blank">Politico.eu</a>). The question would resolve upon the last Member State notifying the EU that it has approved the decision (<a href="https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/documents-publications/treaties-agreements/agreement/?id=2020025&amp;DocLanguage=en" target="_blank">European Council</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">&nbsp;or&nbsp;</span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,&nbsp;<a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>.&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>

2021-06-15

Will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package before 1 September 2021?

2021-04-23

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["https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/coalition-eyes-900m-from-eu-recovery-and-resilience-covid-fund-1.4554501", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1272107", "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/16/austria-blumel-is-convinced-eu-recovery-funds-will-go-ahead.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1281892", "https://www.funcas.es/articulos/ratification-of-the-eu-own-resources-decision-what-is-the-state-of-affairs/", "https://bit.ly/3vkQVoR", "https://bit.ly/3eWsPLF", "https://bit.ly/3uoYw4y", "https://www.economist.com/briefing/2021/03/31/europes-radical-economic-response-to-covid-19", "https://politi.co/3yFCmyc", "https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/finance_committee_greenlights_eu_covid_stimulus_package/11916758", "https://news.err.ee/1608140158/rail-baltica-eu-funding-dispute-reaches-resolution", "https://twitter.com/markus_pausch/status/1396518490526396416?s=20", "https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/ratifizierung-eu-staaten-machen-weg-frei-fuer-corona-aufbauhilfen-a-0c2f0f3d-3b31-4f20-aa18-00167243046c", "https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/short_news/romanias-psd-blocks-approval-of-eus-own-resources-decision/", "https://news.err.ee/1608202966/government-to-link-eu-recovery-fund-bill-to-confidence-vote", "https://bit.ly/3tTlP6d", "https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/hungary-poland-thwart-eu-s-push-for-gender-equality-1.1600717", "https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2021/690520/EPRS_BRI(2021)690520_EN.pdf", "https://twitter.com/JHahnEU/status/1397977369651073038", "https://bit.ly/2SlktnP", "https://bit.ly/2RrSzXb", "https://reut.rs/3uViuot", "https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/finland-news/politics/19187-national-coalition-makes-u-turn-enabling-members-to-support-eu-recovery-facility.html", "https://reut.rs/3wdUJsb"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

1.0

True

2022-06-17

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2234

<p>Efforts within the WTO to agree on patent waivers for COVID-19 vaccines stalled in 2021 (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/cyril-ramaphosa-says-the-world-must-end-vaccine-apartheid" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-10-04/a-year-after-covid-vaccine-waiver-proposal-wto-talks-are-deadlocked" target="_blank">US News &amp; World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/02/intl_business/wto-trips-waiver-ip-india-south-africa-coronavirus-pandemic/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>). While consensus among all 164 member states is sought for WTO decisions, an agreement to grant waivers could be made by a vote of three-fourths of member states (<a href="https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/org1_e.htm" target="_blank">WTO</a>, <a href="https://sdg.iisd.org/commentary/policy-briefs/as-vaccine-roll-out-begins-wto-members-intensify-debate-over-policy-solutions/" target="_blank">SDG Knowledge Hub</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>

2022-06-17

Before 1 September 2022, will the World Trade Organization (WTO) officially agree to grant waivers for intellectual property protections for COVID-19 vaccine technology?

2021-12-30

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["https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/61-the-economist-the-world-ahead", "https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n281#:~:text=The%20Oxford%2DAstraZeneca%20vaccine%20is,%244%2C%20respectively%2C%20per%20dose", "https://docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/SS/directdoc.aspx?filename=q:/WT/MIN22/W15.pdf&amp;Open=True", "https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220123-europe-could-be-headed-for-pandemic-endgame-who", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1447908", "https://inthesetimes.com/article/covid-wto-trips-waiver-biden-european-union-intellectual-property-patents", "https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations", "https://www.dw.com/en/covid-19-south-africa-develops-own-coronavirus-vaccine/a-60121009", "https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/us-china-fight-may-spoil-global-deal-for-a-covid-vaccine-patent-waiver-1.1766590", "https://sdg.iisd.org/commentary/policy-briefs/as-vaccine-roll-out-begins-wto-members-intensify-debate-over-policy-solutions/", "https://thefinancialexpress.com.bd/trade/main-negotiators-reach-outcome-on-covid-vaccine-patent-waiver-wto-says-1651629635", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1376568", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/stocks/biontech-starts-work-omicron-specific-vaccine-2021-11-29/", "https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/exclusive-wto-chief-says-vaccine-answer-close-facing-effort-block-it-2021-12-16/:", "https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britain-approves-pfizer-covid-19-pill-2021-12-31/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1378546", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-06/china-rejects-its-exclusion-from-wto-vaccine-waiver-proposal", "https://www.asil.org/insights/volume/11/issue/28/canadian-made-drugs-rwanda-first-application-wto-waiver-patents-and", "https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/exclusive-wto-chief-says-vaccine-answer-close-facing-effort-block-it-2021-12-16/", "https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/last-few-tweaks-being-made-covid-ip-waiver-deal-wto-chief-2022-04-14/", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/11/new-email-piles-more-pressure-on-uk-pm-johnson-over-lockdown-parties", "https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/china-rejects-its-exclusion-from-wto-vaccine-waiver-proposal-1.1762407", "https://docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/SS/directdoc.aspx?filename=q:/WT/MIN22/W15R2.pdf&amp;Open=True", "https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/12/15/experts-identify-100-plus-firms-make-covid-19-mrna-vaccines", "https://www.theregreview.org/2022/01/13/khodor-support-waiver-covid-19-vaccine-patents/"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

1.0

True

2023-05-18

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2764

<p>Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 (Section 230), which was added as part of the Communications Decency Act of 1996, "provides limited federal immunity to providers and users of interactive computer services" (<a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46751" target="_blank">Congressional Research Service</a>, <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/230" target="_blank">Cornell - Section 230</a>). Various parties related to Nohemi Gonzalez, who was killed in the 2015 Paris terrorist attacks, sued Google claiming, among other things, that YouTube enabled terrorists to recruit members and spread propaganda (<a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2022/21-1333" target="_blank">Oyez</a>). The district court and Ninth Circuit both found that Section 230 barred the claims against Google that were not premised on revenue-sharing exercised by the company (<a href="https://casetext.com/case/gonzalez-v-google-llc" target="_blank">Casetext</a>, <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/gonzalez-v-google-llc/" target="_blank">SCOTUSblog</a>). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2022 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2023-05-18

In Gonzalez v. Google LLC, will the Supreme Court rule that Section 230 does not bar the plaintiff's non-revenue sharing claims against Google?

2023-02-17

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["https://www.pacificresearch.org/supreme-court-hands-9th-circuit-highest-year-of-reversals-since-1985/", "https://thefederalist.com/?s=section+230", "https://www.lawfareblog.com/oral-argument-preview-gonzalez-et-al-v-google-and-twitter-inc-v-taamneh-et-al", "https://edition.cnn.com/business/live-news/supreme-court-gonzalez-v-google-2-21-23/h_43018c5d16a3910a2be5367e3e678a98", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/21/tech/supreme-court-gonzalez-v-google/index.html", "https://www.axios.com/2020/10/14/clarence-thomas-wants-to-reel-in-section-230", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federalist_Society#Current_officeholders", "https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/21/21-1333/222119/20220428144237252_No.%2021-1333%20-%20Gonzalez%20v%20Google%20LLC%20%20-%20Motion%20for%20Extension.pdf", "https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/21/21-1333/249441/20221207203557042_21-1333tsacUnitedStates.pdf", "https://www.scotusblog.com/2023/02/not-like-the-nine-greatest-experts-on-the-internet-justices-seem-leery-of-broad-ruling-on-section-230/", "https://casetext.com/case/gonzalez-v-google-llc", "https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/21/supreme-court-justices-in-google-case-hesitate-to-upend-section-230.html?&amp;qsearchterm=Gonzalez", "https://ballotpedia.org/SCOTUS_case_reversal_rates_(2007_-_Present", "https://fantasyscotus.net/case/gonzalez-v-google-llc/", "https://www.axios.com/2022/10/06/supreme-courts-liability-case-could-scramble-the-online-world", "https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/20pdf/19-1284_869d.pdf"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2022-10-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2151

<p>Mark Zuckerberg, as Facebook's sole Chairman and CEO, has been under pressure as the company's business practices face ever greater scrutiny (<a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/facebook-whistleblower-frances-haugen-misinformation-public-60-minutes-2021-10-03/" target="_blank">CBS News</a>, <a href="https://www.engadget.com/mark-zuckerberg-denies-facebook-profit-over-safety-033717690.html" target="_blank">Endgadget</a>, <a href="https://qz.com/2069983/mark-zuckerberg-rejects-facebook-whistleblowers-allegations/" target="_blank">Quartz</a>). An announced leave of absence or addition of either a co-chairman or co-CEO would count.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 28 October 2021</span>: We are aware of Facebook's name change to Meta. For the purposes of this question, consider this change in and of itself to be immaterial.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2022-10-02

Before 1 October 2022, will Facebook announce that Mark Zuckerberg will cease to be the company's sole Chairman or CEO?

2021-10-07

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["https://www.barrons.com/articles/mark-zuckerberg-economic-warning-meta-employees-51656857529", "https://techstory.in/frances-haugen-says-meta-cant-recover-until-mark-zuckerberg-steps-down/", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/21/meta-coo-sandberg-reportedly-tried-to-block-news-story-about-activision-ceo-kotick.html", "https://www.quora.com/Do-you-think-Mark-Zuckerberg-should-be-replaced-as-Facebook-s-CEO", "https://zenodo.org/record/4543893#.YcqZlL3MI_U", "https://apnews.com/article/technology-elections-social-media-f531e36b4b2e068faa51ba2e7159d052", "https://www.benzinga.com/general/entrepreneurship/22/09/28907714/this-harvard-expert-says-zuckerberg-continuing-to-derail-facebook-says-hes-really-lost-h", "https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/news-room/press-releases/2019/ceo-turnover-record-high.html", "https://about.fb.com/news/2021/10/facebook-company-is-now-meta/", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/20/mark-zuckerberg-sheryl-sandbergs-superpower-is-combination-of-iq-eq.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-26/facebook-board-rejects-proposals-to-reduce-zuckerberg-s-power", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JM3nwoUntts", "https://ewn.co.za/2022/06/09/zuckerberg-staying-at-meta-helm-for-years-makes-sense-clegg", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/23/meta-ceo-zuckerberg-sued-over-cambridge-analytica-privacy-scandal.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilded_Age", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1424140", "https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/06/facebook-investors-revolt-against-mark-zuckerberg", "https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1061237/how-facebook-silences-its-investors", "https://www.axios.com/meta-ftc-antitrust-case-dismissal-fails-7c8d1b80-334e-460e-9921-f91b1eb1aa3a.html", "https://www.franchise500.com/slideshow/246043", "https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/10/09/facebook-is-nearing-a-reputational-point-of-no-return", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-02/facebook-shares-plunge-as-users-stall-forecast-falls-short?srnd=premium", "https://www.theverge.com/2021/10/19/22735612/facebook-change-company-name-metaverse", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidency_of_Theodore_Roosevelt", "https://www.businessinsider.com/mark-zuckerberg-cambridge-analytica-meta-deposition-lawsuit-2022-7"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2022-11-16

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2576

<p>The Artemis system is NASA's planned means to return humans to the moon, though its maiden flight has seen delays (<a href="https://www.nasa.gov/specials/artemis-i/" target="_blank">NASA - Artemis I</a>, <a href="https://www.space.com/artemis-1-moon-rocket-launch-delay-september-27" target="_blank">Space.com</a>, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/09/24/1124927392/nasa-delays-artemis-moon-launch-tropical-storm-ian" target="_blank">NPR</a>). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful core stage separation (<a href="https://www.nasa.gov/exploration/systems/sls/fs/core_stage.html" target="_blank">NASA - Artemis Core Stage</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/nasas-artemis-1-mission-to-the-moon-sets-the-stage-for-routine-space-exploration-beyond-earths-orbit-heres-what-to-expect-and-why-its-important-189447" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2022-11-16

Will NASA's Artemis 1 mission be launched successfully before 1 January 2023?

2022-10-07

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["https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=web&amp;cd=&amp;cad=rja&amp;uact=8&amp;ved=0CAQQw7AJahcKEwjwpa_u2dv6AhUAAAAAHQAAAAAQAw&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fzenodo.org%2Frecord%2F1263978%2Ffiles%2Farticle.pdf&amp;psig=AOvVaw32iLfVq8AXLEUA-u50HexI&amp;ust=1665698837316844", "https://www.space.com/nasa-artemis-1-moon-mission-officials-confident-nov-14-launch", "https://www.rmg.co.uk/stories/topics/why-did-we-stop-going-moon", "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/science/40-per-cent-lunar-missions-in-last-60-years-failed-nasa-fact-sheet/articleshow/71021941.cms?from=mdr", "https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20140002678/downloads/20140002678.pdf", "https://youtu.be/Xcm47AM3s-Q?t=609", "https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/12/world/artemis-nasa-launch-date-scn/index.html", "https://www.space.com/news/live/nasa-artemis-1-moon-mission-updates", "https://weather.com/weather/monthly/l/Kennedy+Space+Center+FL+USFL0339:1:US", "https://www.theguardian.com/science/2022/nov/16/nasa-artemis-1-moon-rocket-launch-florida", "https://www.nasa.gov/exploration/systems/sls/fs/core_stage.html", "https://yourfirstvisit.net/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/Hurricanes-at-Walt-Disney-World-2.jpg", "https://blogs.nasa.gov/artemis/2022/11/08/nasa-prepares-rocket-spacecraft-ahead-of-tropical-storm-nicole-re-targets-launch/", "https://www.npr.org/2022/11/15/1136687244/nasa-artemis-moon-rocket-upcoming-launch", "https://www.orlandosentinel.com/space/artemis/os-bz-nasa-artemis-i-launch-pad-tower-records-100-mph-gust-hurricane-nicole-20221110-chmzzpybo5dnto3st4huufeple-story.html", "https://apnews.com/article/hurricanes-astronomy-space-launches-science-hurricane-nicole-2fe52d1beb74f884c7ee4b531b4b7d60", "https://www.space.com/nasa-artemis-1-moon-launch-november-14", "https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/11/10/world/artemis-1-rocket-hurricane-nicole-scn/index.html", "https://www.weatherbug.com/news/Hurricanes-Are-Still-Possible-in-November", "https://blogs.nasa.gov/artemis/2022/10/12/nasa-sets-date-for-next-launch-attempt-for-artemis-i-moon-mission/", "https://www.nasa.gov/feature/artemis-i-mission-availability", "https://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/orlando/nasa/?cam=nasatv", "https://lite.cnn.com/en/article/h_fd189399fdbb7966fd4e4e453061128a", "https://spacenews.com/nasa-pushes-back-artemis-1-launch-to-november/", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_Exploration_Program"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

1.0

True

2022-11-25

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2355

<p>Ukrainian forces have blunted Russian ambitions in its invasion of Ukraine, but the war in the country continues (<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/11/europe/ukraine-donbas-battle-russia-cmd-intl/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-eastern-ukraine-offensive-donbas-next-phase/31795550.html" target="_blank">Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty</a>, <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/volodymyr-zelenskyy-assassination-attempt-killing-ukraine-president-russia-1686329" target="_blank">Newsweek</a>). Whether or not Zelensky has fled Ukraine will be determined using credible open source media reporting.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2022-11-25

Will President Volodymyr Zelensky either flee Ukraine or cease to be its president before 25 November 2022?

2022-04-13

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0.0463], ["2022-10-27", 0.0461], ["2022-10-27", 0.0461], ["2022-10-27", 0.0457], ["2022-10-27", 0.0456], ["2022-10-27", 0.0461], ["2022-10-27", 0.0467], ["2022-10-28", 0.0467], ["2022-10-28", 0.0457], ["2022-10-28", 0.0454], ["2022-10-29", 0.0452], ["2022-10-29", 0.0447], ["2022-10-29", 0.0444], ["2022-10-31", 0.0447], ["2022-10-31", 0.0446], ["2022-10-31", 0.0446], ["2022-11-01", 0.0441], ["2022-11-01", 0.0435], ["2022-11-01", 0.0433], ["2022-11-02", 0.0433], ["2022-11-02", 0.0432], ["2022-11-03", 0.0432], ["2022-11-03", 0.0428], ["2022-11-03", 0.0427], ["2022-11-04", 0.0423], ["2022-11-04", 0.0416], ["2022-11-04", 0.0415], ["2022-11-04", 0.0413], ["2022-11-04", 0.0413], ["2022-11-05", 0.0403], ["2022-11-05", 0.0389], ["2022-11-06", 0.039], ["2022-11-06", 0.0386], ["2022-11-07", 0.0375], ["2022-11-07", 0.0375], ["2022-11-07", 0.0372], ["2022-11-07", 0.0379], ["2022-11-08", 0.0364], ["2022-11-08", 0.0365], ["2022-11-08", 0.0362], ["2022-11-09", 0.0362], ["2022-11-09", 0.036], ["2022-11-09", 0.036], ["2022-11-09", 0.036], ["2022-11-09", 0.0361], ["2022-11-10", 0.0358], ["2022-11-10", 0.035], ["2022-11-10", 0.0348], ["2022-11-10", 0.035], ["2022-11-10", 0.035], ["2022-11-10", 0.0278], ["2022-11-11", 0.0273], ["2022-11-11", 0.0269], ["2022-11-11", 0.0266], ["2022-11-11", 0.0263], ["2022-11-11", 0.0278], ["2022-11-11", 0.027], ["2022-11-11", 0.0272], ["2022-11-12", 0.027], ["2022-11-12", 0.027], ["2022-11-13", 0.0269], ["2022-11-13", 0.0273], ["2022-11-13", 0.0258], ["2022-11-13", 0.0263], ["2022-11-13", 0.0275], ["2022-11-13", 0.0274], ["2022-11-14", 0.0273], ["2022-11-14", 0.0271], ["2022-11-14", 0.027], ["2022-11-14", 0.0272], ["2022-11-14", 0.0269], ["2022-11-14", 0.0268], ["2022-11-14", 0.0268], ["2022-11-14", 0.0267], ["2022-11-14", 0.0267], ["2022-11-15", 0.0265], ["2022-11-15", 0.02], ["2022-11-15", 0.0201], ["2022-11-15", 0.0199], ["2022-11-16", 0.0199], ["2022-11-17", 0.0185], ["2022-11-17", 0.0192], ["2022-11-17", 0.0191], ["2022-11-18", 0.0191], ["2022-11-18", 0.019], ["2022-11-18", 0.019], ["2022-11-18", 0.0189], ["2022-11-18", 0.0183], ["2022-11-18", 0.0179], ["2022-11-18", 0.0176], ["2022-11-18", 0.0177], ["2022-11-18", 0.0177], ["2022-11-19", 0.0175], ["2022-11-19", 0.0173], ["2022-11-19", 0.0172], ["2022-11-19", 0.0162], ["2022-11-19", 0.016], ["2022-11-20", 0.0226], ["2022-11-20", 0.0222], ["2022-11-20", 0.0222], ["2022-11-21", 0.0223], ["2022-11-21", 0.0223], ["2022-11-21", 0.0224], ["2022-11-21", 0.0219], ["2022-11-21", 0.022], ["2022-11-21", 0.0217], ["2022-11-21", 0.0218], ["2022-11-21", 0.0219], ["2022-11-21", 0.0217], ["2022-11-22", 0.0214], ["2022-11-22", 0.0217], ["2022-11-22", 0.0217], ["2022-11-22", 0.0213], ["2022-11-22", 0.023], ["2022-11-22", 0.023], ["2022-11-22", 0.0224], ["2022-11-22", 0.0224], ["2022-11-23", 0.0223], ["2022-11-23", 0.0223], ["2022-11-23", 0.0223], ["2022-11-24", 0.0224], ["2022-11-24", 0.0226], ["2022-11-24", 0.0223], ["2022-11-24", 0.0217], ["2022-11-24", 0.0215], ["2022-11-24", 0.0215], ["2022-11-24", 0.0214], ["2022-11-25", 0.0214]]

["https://discover.lanl.gov/publications/national-security-science/2021-winter/pit-production-explained", "https://voxeurop.eu/en/ukrainian-kutuzov-general-zaluzhny-why-are-his-tactics-spotlight/", "https://lite.cnn.com/en/article/h_ec768fb70e8c8d6e114c02d73ffb2ea7", "https://armscontrolcenter.org/fact-sheet-the-nunn-lugar-cooperative-threat-reduction-program-2/", "https://www.npr.org/2022/07/20/1112414884/corruption-concerns-involving-ukraine-are-revived-as-the-war-with-russia-drags-o", "https://www.statisticshowto.com/cromwells-rule/", "https://gravityandlevity.wordpress.com/2009/07/08/your-body-wasnt-built-to-last-a-lesson-from-human-mortality-rates/", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2003/mar/20/iraq.jamesmeek", "https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300243208/the-vory/", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2277-will-president-volodymyr-zelensky-either-flee-ukraine-or-cease-to-be-its-president-before-25-may-2022", "https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/06/15/negotiating-to-end-the-ukraine-war-isnt-appeasement-00039798", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/26/russia-ukraine-live-updates.html", "https://www.statista.com/statistics/241572/death-rate-by-age-and-sex-in-the-us/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1517364"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2021-09-09

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2018

<p>Aaron Rodgers' future with the Green Bay Packers has become unclear in the offseason (<a href="https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/31359453/aaron-rodgers-want-return-green-bay-packers-sources-say" target="_blank">ESPN</a>, <a href="https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/aaron-rodgers-landing-spots-six-teams-that-make-the-most-sense-including-the-draft-stock-rich-eagles/" target="_blank">CBS Sports</a>, <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/sports/aaron-rodgers-mike-tirico" target="_blank">Fox News</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">&nbsp;or&nbsp;</span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,&nbsp;<a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>.&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>

2021-09-09

Will NFL quarterback Aaron Rodgers sign a player contract with an NFL team other than the Green Bay Packers before 9 September 2021?

2021-05-27

[["2021-05-28", 1.0], ["2021-05-28", 1.0], ["2021-05-29", 1.0], ["2021-05-29", 1.0], ["2021-05-30", 1.0], ["2021-05-30", 0.985], ["2021-05-30", 1.0], ["2021-05-30", 0.985], ["2021-05-30", 0.97], ["2021-05-30", 0.96], ["2021-06-01", 0.725], ["2021-06-01", 0.45], ["2021-06-01", 0.37], ["2021-06-02", 0.37], ["2021-06-02", 0.325], ["2021-06-02", 0.28], ["2021-06-02", 0.25], ["2021-06-02", 0.22], ["2021-06-02", 0.195], ["2021-06-04", 0.195], ["2021-06-04", 0.195], ["2021-06-04", 0.195], ["2021-06-04", 0.225], ["2021-06-07", 0.2], ["2021-06-07", 0.2], ["2021-06-07", 0.2], ["2021-06-07", 0.2], ["2021-06-07", 0.2], ["2021-06-08", 0.2], ["2021-06-09", 0.1], ["2021-06-09", 0.125], ["2021-06-10", 0.1], ["2021-06-11", 0.085], ["2021-06-11", 0.12], ["2021-06-12", 0.12], ["2021-06-12", 0.08], ["2021-06-13", 0.08], ["2021-06-13", 0.08], ["2021-06-14", 0.08], ["2021-06-15", 0.05], ["2021-06-16", 0.08], ["2021-06-17", 0.08], ["2021-06-20", 0.08], ["2021-06-20", 0.08], ["2021-06-20", 0.08], ["2021-06-22", 0.08], ["2021-06-24", 0.055], ["2021-06-25", 0.055], ["2021-06-25", 0.045], ["2021-06-27", 0.025], ["2021-06-27", 0.025], ["2021-06-27", 0.025], ["2021-06-29", 0.03], ["2021-06-30", 0.03], ["2021-07-01", 0.02], ["2021-07-01", 0.02], ["2021-07-04", 0.02], ["2021-07-04", 0.02], ["2021-07-05", 0.02], ["2021-07-07", 0.02], ["2021-07-07", 0.02], ["2021-07-10", 0.02], ["2021-07-12", 0.01], ["2021-07-13", 0.02], ["2021-07-13", 0.01], ["2021-07-16", 0.01], ["2021-07-16", 0.01], ["2021-07-16", 0.01], ["2021-07-17", 0.01], ["2021-07-17", 0.01], ["2021-07-18", 0.01], ["2021-07-22", 0.01], ["2021-07-25", 0.01], ["2021-07-26", 0.005], ["2021-07-26", 0.0], ["2021-07-27", 0.0], ["2021-07-27", 0.0], ["2021-07-27", 0.0], ["2021-07-27", 0.0], ["2021-07-27", 0.0], ["2021-07-28", 0.0], ["2021-07-29", 0.0], ["2021-07-29", 0.0], ["2021-08-02", 0.0], ["2021-08-02", 0.0], ["2021-08-03", 0.0], ["2021-08-04", 0.0], ["2021-08-05", 0.0], ["2021-08-05", 0.0], ["2021-08-08", 0.0], ["2021-08-08", 0.0], ["2021-08-08", 0.0], ["2021-08-08", 0.0], ["2021-08-12", 0.0], ["2021-08-28", 0.0], ["2021-08-29", 0.0], ["2021-08-31", 0.0], ["2021-09-01", 0.0], ["2021-09-02", 0.0], ["2021-09-02", 0.0], ["2021-09-02", 0.0], ["2021-09-02", 0.0], ["2021-09-06", 0.0], ["2021-09-07", 0.0], ["2021-09-09", 0.0]]

["https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1-jDnk5hZU", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/aaron-rodgers-renews-his-membership-at-the-green-bay-country-club/ar-AALdw8j", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ts5MKtXNpMQ", "https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/packers-reportedly-agree-to-trade-for-randall-cobb-fulfilling-aaron-rodgers-request-cobb-tweets-approval", "https://www.iheart.com/live/973-the-game-2685/", "https://www.profootballrumors.com/2021/05/latest-on-packers-aaron-rodgers-2", "https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/31897023/aaron-rodgers-shows-first-day-green-bay-packers-training-camp", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rGJOMkOUbTM", "https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-rehfeldt-69777025/", "https://www.greenbaycountryclub.com/", "https://www.yahoo.com/sports/aaron-rodgers-does-indeed-opt-103404968.html"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2022-01-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2138

<p>Shams Dubai is the Dubai Electricity &amp; Water Authority's (DEWA’s) first smart initiative to connect solar energy to buildings, a part of the Distributed Renewable Resources Generation program (<a href="https://www.dewa.gov.ae/en/consumer/solar-community/shams-dubai" target="_blank">Shams Dubai</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome be determined using data as reported by DEWA (<a href="https://www.dewa.gov.ae/en/consumer/Sustainability/sustainability-reports" target="_blank">DEWA</a>). For 2020, total DEWA reported 261.9 MW of Connected Capacity at Year End (<a href="https://www.dewa.gov.ae/~/media/Files/Customer/Sustainability%20Reports/DEWA%20Sustainability%20Report%202020%2015.ashx" target="_blank">DEWA - 2020 Sustainability Report</a>, see page 58).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2022-08-16

As of the end of 2021, will total connected capacity of solar panels installed through the Shams Dubai program reach or exceed 400 MW?

2021-09-30

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["https://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2021/11/an-update-on-wro-enforcement-on-imported-solar-panels/", "https://www.reuters.com/business/us-restricts-exports-5-chinese-firms-over-rights-violations-2021-06-23/", "https://wam.ae/en/details/1395302957976", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-29/china-slashes-silicon-output-signaling-higher-solar-panel-costs", "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/26/more-than-half-of-2022s-solar-projects-threatened-by-spiking-costs-new-report-finds.html", "https://mysuncast.com/suncast-episodes", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1341794", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-14/aluminum-makers-sound-the-alarm-about-u-s-magnesium-shortage", "https://www.dewa.gov.ae/en/consumer/solar-community/shams-dubai/contractors-and-consultants/list-of-eligible-equipment", "https://www.wam.ae/en/details/1395303001375", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/white-house-says-us-can-have-solar-supplies-stand-up-human-rights-2021-10-26/", "https://www.solar.com/learn/solar-panel-installation-cost/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1341565", "https://www.bernreuter.com/polysilicon/price-trend/", "https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/renewable/solar-tariff-to-go-up-by-20-to-25-paise/unit-in-forthcoming-bids-icra/87299385", "https://www.zawya.com/mena/en/projects/story/PROJECTS_Dubai_installs_299_megawatts_of_rooftop_solar-ZAWYA20210414123842/", "https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/solar-panel-prices-up-a-quarter-in-2-months/2354375/", "https://www.pv-magazine.com/2021/10/04/silicon-metal-and-aluminum-industries-hit-by-china-power-shortages/", "https://www.wam.ae/en/details/1395302978138", "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/14/solar-prices-jump-as-supply-chain-issues-and-raw-material-costs-weigh.html", "https://gulfnews.com/uae/government/dubai-al-tayer-highlights-dewas-pioneering-role-in-clean-energy-strategy-on-25th-national-environment-day-2022-1.85393214", "https://www.pv-magazine.com/2021/10/07/doping-delivers-improved-performance-for-perovskite-solar-cells/", "https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lbe8zcRC6Lsjm0hLuenViw", "https://solarquarter.com/2021/04/16/299-mw-of-rooftop-solar-installed-under-the-shams-dubai-initiative/#:~:text=PV%20Power%20Plant-,299%20(MW)%20of%20Rooftop%20Solar%20Installed%20Under%20the%20Shams%20Dubai,%2C%20MD%20%26%20CEO%20of%20DEWA", "https://qz.com/2081333/supply-chain-chaos-threatens-the-growth-of-solar-energy/"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2021-01-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1492

<p>Negotiations between the United States and North Korea during 2019 were inconclusive, and there are efforts to restart them in 2020 (<a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/11/asia/north-korea-trump-letter-intl-hnk/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.axios.com/trump-kim-jong-un-north-korea-robert-obrien-7200b5af-2af8-4470-81ca-c42bcfd2842a.html" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Axios</a>, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-wants-open-north-korea-nuclear-talks-kim-jong-un-2020-1" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Business Insider</a>). For purposes of this question, the meeting must be in-person.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;or&nbsp;</span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,&nbsp;<a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>

2021-01-01

Will President Trump and North Korea's Kim Jong Un meet before 1 January 2021?

2020-01-17

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["https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/09/north-korea-says-south-may-pay-dearly-for-doubting-its-claim-to-be-covid-free"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2023-10-15

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2925

<p>SpaceX is working to launch its next orbital flight test as soon as summer 2023 (<a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/elon-musk-outlines-major-upgrades-before-next-launch-of-super-heavy-rocket/" target="_blank">CBS News</a>, <a href="https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-25-engine-test-photo" target="_blank">Space.com</a>). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful first stage separation (<a href="https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-super-heavy-14-engine-test-fire" target="_blank">Space.com</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2023-10-15

Will SpaceX's next Starship orbital flight test be launched successfully before 15 October 2023?

2023-06-30

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["https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20230518-what-are-the-odds-of-a-successful-space-launch", "https://twitter.com/FelixSchlang/status/1704890443798872381?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1704890443798872381%7Ctwgr%5Ecc250848c964342cc0c4d11dfd3836f3f58ea50a%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&amp;ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.astrospace.it%2F2023%2F09%2F23%2Fspacex-faa-a-che-punto-sono-i-permessi-per-il-secondo-lancio-di-starship%2F", "https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/26/spacex-starship-explosion-caused-3point5-acre-fire-us-fws-says-.html?", "https://driveteslacanada.ca/news/faa-nears-approval-for-spacexs-second-starship-launch/", "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1700789411279966339", "https://www.faa.gov/media/70901", "https://spaceflightnow.com/2023/09/12/faa-closes-spacex-led-starship-mishap-investigation/", "https://www.cnet.com/science/space/next-flight-of-the-giant-spacex-starship-is-drawing-closer/", "https://futurism.com/the-byte/elon-musk-starship-explosion-odds", "https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/spacex-s-starship-still-needs-wildlife-agency-review-to-resume-launch-1.1973066", "https://gizmodo.com/environmental-review-delay-spacex-starship-launch-1850853128", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/technology/spacex-launch-of-starship-rocket-on-hold-amid-mishap-investigation/ar-AA1gnOKO", "https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/26/spacex-starship-explosion-caused-3point5-acre-fire-us-fws-says-.html?__source=sharebar%7Ctwitter&amp;par=sharebar", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/14/world/spacex-starship-faa-license-expected-october-scn/index.html", "https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/08/let-the-review-begin-spacex-takes-another-step-toward-launching-starship-again/?utm_source=nl&amp;utm_brand=ars&amp;utm_campaign=aud-dev&amp;utm_mailing=ARS_Rocket_081723&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;bxid=6026e1114c9727341c7c392a&amp;cndid=70539116&amp;hasha=210ed1c22df936546a7a05f489ca6ffd&amp;hashb=5b42d57a3da027dd8210287bbb5298a82f74c431&amp;hashc=61cb36390fcf409d22e9d66afa5d635a45b7b195587b2e6bba73c8dd765929d4&amp;esrc=&amp;utm_term=ARS_RocketReport", "https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/wildlife-approval", "https://apnews.com/article/spacex-starship-launch-accident-faa-a8d6cec63de579af4b6d5f040e51825d", "https://www.spacex.com/updates/index.html#:~:text=UPGRADES%20AHEAD%20OF%20STARSHIP%E2%80%99S%20SECOND%20FLIGHT%20TEST", "https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/09/faa-says-spacex-has-more-to-do-before-starship-can-fly-again/", "https://www.independent.co.uk/space/starship-launch-date-spacex-faa-b2415048.html", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/14/world/spacex-starship-launch-license-scn/index.html", "https://www.cnet.com/science/space/next-launch-of-spacex-starship-faces-more-potential-delays/", "https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/faa-could-advance-spacex-starship-license-soon-october-2023-09-13/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-18/spacex-s-starship-still-needs-fish-and-wildlife-review-to-start", "https://techcrunch.com/2023/09/08/elon-musk-says-starship-is-ready-to-launch-faa-says-not-yet/"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2021-08-08

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2036

<p>The 2020 Olympics are scheduled for 23 July - 8 August 2021 (<a href="https://olympics.com/tokyo-2020/en/schedule/" target="_blank">Olympics</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">&nbsp;or&nbsp;</span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,&nbsp;<a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>.&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>

2021-08-08

Will Great Britain win more gold medals at the 2020 Olympics than the People's Republic of China?

2021-06-11

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["https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Summer_Olympics_medal_table", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1312995", "https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_en_los_Juegos_Ol%C3%ADmpicos", "https://www.skysports.com/olympics/news/15234/10548015/analysing-the-reasons-behind-team-gbs-success-at-rio-olympics-2016", "https://www.insidethegames.biz/games/7/medals", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/olympics-medal-count/", "https://www.tvazteca.com/aztecadeportes/juegos-olimpicos-tokio-2020/cuantas-medallas-tiene-china-en-juegos-olimpicos-lmn", "https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Great_Britain_at_the_Olympics", "https://www.eurosport.com/olympics/tokyo-2020/2020/tokyo-2020-gold-for-laura-muir-double-silver-for-dina-asher-smith-predictions-for-team-gb_sto8223701/story.shtml", "https://medalspercapita.com/#golds-per-capita:2020", "https://www.marketingregistrado.com/jp/olimpicos/2019/02/24945_cuantos-atletas-ya-estan-clasificados-para-tokyo-2020/#:~:text=En%20lo%20que%20respecta%20al%20deporte%20y%20los,y%20Santiago%20Lange%20y%20Cecilia%20Carranza%20en%20Yachting", "https://www.topendsports.com/events/summer/medal-tally/predicted-2021.htm", "https://www.gracenote.com/virtual-medal-table/", "https://www.wikiwand.com/en/China_at_the_Olympics"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2021-01-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1499

<p>Protests in Hong Kong that began in June 2019 have evolved into broader anti-government protests (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/subjects/hong-kong-protests" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). Reports indicate that China's central government could mobilize PLA and/or PAP troops in Hong Kong (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/china-army-hongkong/" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://www.pri.org/stories/2019-11-06/china-s-internal-suppression-troops-have-plans-hong-kong" target="_blank">Public Radio International</a>, <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/08/06/chinas-paramilitary-police-could-crush-hong-kong/" target="_blank">Foreign Policy</a>). For the purposes of this question, "mobilized" means actively engaged in military or law enforcement actions against protesters within the territory of Hong Kong.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;or&nbsp;</span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,&nbsp;<a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p>NOTE: "against protesters" was added to the More Info the morning after launch.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>

2021-01-01

Before 1 January 2021, will the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and/or People’s Armed Police (PAP) be mobilized in Hong Kong?

2020-01-21

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["2021-01-01", 0.0]]

["http://www.iberchina.org/files/2017/china_2021_chatham.pdf", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/hongkong-mask-ban-ruling/2020/12/20/f2722af0-4340-11eb-a277-49a6d1f9dff1_story.html", "https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/law-and-crime/article/3113637/hong-kong-protests-construction-worker-gets-40-months", "https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/law-and-crime/article/3111717/aftermath-hong-kong-protests-top-cops-biggest", "https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/hong-kong-police-arrest-university-protest-74577778", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55039622"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2021-08-15

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2073

<p>As US and NATO forces continue their withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Taliban is making gains in the country (<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/9/taliban-says-it-controls-85-of-afghanistan" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>, <a href="https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2021/07/08/biden-defends-afghanistan-pullout-as-taliban-gains-ground/" target="_blank">Military Times</a>). Whether or not Ghani has fled Afghanistan will be determined using credible open source media reporting.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">&nbsp;or&nbsp;</span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,&nbsp;<a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>.&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>

2021-08-15

Will Ashraf Ghani either flee Afghanistan or cease to be its president before 1 January 2022?

2021-07-16

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["https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-58219963", "https://www.freepressjournal.in/world/afghan-president-ashraf-ghani-to-step-down-interim-taliban-govt-to-take-over-reports", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/aug/15/afghanistan-taliban-close-in-on-kabul-as-last-government-stronghold-in-north-falls", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/afghan-president-ashraf-ghani-says-he-wants-to-avoid-bloodshed-as-taliban-encircle-kabul-11628939781", "https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2021/08/15/Taliban-begin-offensive-on-Kabul-Interior-Ministry", "https://apnews.com/article/927d8bf22e2a98d7b7835687c8cbaf3a", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/13/world/asia/afghanistan-ghani-president-isolated.html", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/14/afghan-president-ghani-vows-to-fight-taliban-offensive", "https://www.e-ir.info/2017/07/10/pakistans-role-in-chinas-one-belt-one-road-initiative/", "https://www.firstpost.com/world/afghanistan-crisis-live-updates-taliban-enter-kabul-last-standing-fort-of-us-backed-govt-say-reports-9888331.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1321174", "https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9894781/Taliban-takes-Jalalabad-warns-cease-airstrikes-descend-Kabul.html", "https://bit.ly/37EnSCJ", "https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/13/politics/afghanistan-embassy-72-scramble/index.html", "https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/videos/international/afghanistan-govt-to-transfer-power-to-taliban-ashraf-ghani-to-step-down-reports/videoshow/85347831.cms", "https://www.npr.org/2021/08/15/1027806863/the-taliban-seize-jalalabad-cutting-off-kabul-to-the-east", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58219169", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58187410", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/15/taliban-continues-advances-captures-key-city-of-jalalabad", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Pakistan_relations#:~:text=Pakistan%20has%20a%20long%20and,countries%20have%20been%20mutually%20beneficial.&amp;text=Pakistan&#39;s%20military%20depends%20heavily%20on,and%20militaristic%20importance%20are%20ongoing", "https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/taliban-wont-talk-as-long-as-ashraf-ghani-is-afghanistan-president-pakistan-pm-imran-khan-2508603", "https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1426871735673098244", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/14/taliban-launch-new-assault-on-northern-afghan-city-live", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2021/08/10/afghanistan-intelligence-assessment/", "https://twitter.com/LeaderMcConnell/status/1426302359811072005?s=20"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

1.0

True

2022-11-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2532

<p>The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) Food Price Indicies fell from highs reached in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but they remain elevated (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/09/fao-food-price-index-fell-sharply-in-july-but-the-respite-may-not-last.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/08/1124012" target="_blank">UN</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2022 and the outcome determined using nominal data reported by the FAO for Cereals for September 2022 and October 2022 as reported in November 2022 (<a href="http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/" target="_blank">FAO</a>, see table near bottom of page). As of 1 September 2022, the value for the Cereals Price Index for July 2022 was 147.3. To download historical nominal data, click either "Excel" or "CSV" above the chart titled "FAO Food Price Index in nominal and real terms."</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2022-11-04

Will the value of the FAO Cereals Price Index for October 2022 be higher than it was for September 2022?

2022-09-01

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["https://www.asian-agribiz.com/2022/10/12/fao-reduces-global-cereal-production-outlook/", "https://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?commodity=barley&amp;graph=exports", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1527321", "https://www.kaieteurnewsonline.com/2022/10/10/fao-food-price-index-drops-for-the-sixth-consecutive-month/", "https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1527125", "https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/10/29/world/russia-ukraine-war-news?smid=nytcore-ios-share&amp;referringSource=articleShare", "https://reliefweb.int/report/world/fao-food-price-index-drops-sixth-consecutive-month-enarzhru", "https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-8/the-relationship-between-crude-oil-and-export-prices-of-major-agricultural-commodities.htm", "https://www.twn.my/title2/unsd/2022/unsd221003.htm", "https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/10/29/world/russia-ukraine-war-news?campaign_id=60&amp;emc=edit_na_20221029&amp;instance_id=0&amp;nl=breaking-news&amp;ref=cta&amp;regi_id=200679987&amp;segment_id=111480&amp;user_id=77e09a3095267b7e04adeb6ab826453b", "https://www.reuters.com/business/world-food-prices-hit-new-10-year-high-october-fao-2021-11-04/", "https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/oct/18/floods-expected-to-cause-widespread-damage-to-winter-crops-in-another-blow-to-australian-farmers", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/grain-market-braces-price-leap-black-sea-corridor-halted-2022-10-30/", "https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Seasonal-trend-in-crude-palm-oil-CPO-production_fig1_324561855", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1522283", "https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/prospects-australian-wheat-exports-amid-ukraine-russia-conflict/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1526972", "https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/wheat/market-outlook/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-suspends-participation-deal-ukraine-grain-exports-tass-2022-10-29/", "https://www.fao.org/3/ca9509en/ca9509en.pdf#page=79", "https://www.igc.int/en/markets/marketinfo-goi.aspx", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1520090", "https://www.npr.org/2022/10/29/1132608672/russia-says-it-is-suspending-a-grain-export-deal-with-ukraine", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1535683"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

1.0

True

2022-01-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2091

<p>The Nord Stream 2 pipeline could begin delivering natural gas from Russia to Germany later this year despite opposition from multiple groups (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-57923655" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/02/politics/menendez-nord-stream-2-joint-statement/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-28/republicans-threaten-to-oppose-treasury-picks-over-nord-stream-2" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href="https://www.nord-stream2.com/company/rationale/" target="_blank">Nord-stream2.com</a>). Testing alone would not count. Delivery through either string of pipe would count.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>

2022-01-02

Before 1 January 2022, will the Nord Stream 2 pipeline begin delivering natural gas to Germany?

2021-08-06

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["https://www.faz.net/aktuell/bundesnetzagentur-setzt-zertifizierung-fuer-nord-stream-2-vorerst-aus-17636752.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1345918", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1348159", "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/german-regulator-says-touch-with-nord-stream-2-over-certification-issues-2021-10-22/", "https://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/verzoegerung-von-nord-stream-2-laesst-gaspreise-steigen-17636752.html", "https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59306223", "https://www.deraktionaer.de/artikel/aktien/gazprom-das-ist-der-aktuelle-stand-bei-nord-stream-2-20240030.html", "https://www.pipeline-journal.net/news/nord-stream-2-reaches-significant-regulatory-milestone", "https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Natural-Gas-Prices-Could-Soar-Even-Higher-As-Europe-Braces-For-A-Cold-Winter.html", "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/gazprom-fails-book-more-gas-transit-europe-despite-kremlin-reassurance-2021-11-02/", "https://www.marketscreener.com/news/latest/German-regulator-s-Nord-Stream-2-move-may-delay-commissioning-to-March-sources--37053137/", "https://twitter.com/katyafimava/status/1455933648226639883", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDSz00s34to", "https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/SharedDocs/Pressemitteilungen/DE/2021/20211116_NOS2.html", "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-gas-flows-germany-rise-despite-belarus-threat-2021-11-15/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1347449", "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/certifying-nord-stream-2-is-no-threat-gas-supply-eu-german-ministry-2021-10-26/", "https://www.dw.com/en/german-agency-suspends-certification-for-nord-stream-2-pipeline/a-59833502", "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/german-regulators-nord-stream-2-move-may-delay-commissioning-march-sources-2021-11-17/", "https://www.ft.com/content/a5141b69-0655-48b2-a53a-76d841b02702", "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/germanys-nord-stream-2-gatekeeper-long-road-until-gas-flows-2021-10-15/", "https://twitter.com/katyafimava/status/1456169806638497794", "https://www.ft.com/content/c47cace7-28a0-4614-abd2-0e3c147c8914", "https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Nord-Stream-2-Too-Late-To-Alleviate-Europes-Winter-Gas-Crunch.html", "https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/nird-steam-2-on-the-verge-of-sending-gas-to-europe/"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2023-10-21

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2861

<p>While Belarus has not officially engaged in fighting in Ukraine, there are concerns that it could be drawn into the fighting (<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/16/europe/belarus-ukraine-troops-russia-border-intl/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://www.europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/the-war-in-ukraine-one-year-on-will-belarus-join-the-battlefield/" target="_blank">European Leadership Network</a>, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/4/2/russia-belarus-celebrate-unity-as-war-grinds-on-in-ukraine" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>). For the purposes of this question, "Ukraine" includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea. The participation and the announcement/acknowledgement would both have to occur during the question's open period to count. Acknowledging that members of the Belarusian armed forces may have volunteered to fight under Russian or Ukrainian command in a Russian or Ukrainian military unit would not count. Members of the Belarusian armed forces being placed under Russian military command by the Belarusian government and the government of Belarus acknowledging that those Belarusian troops have engaged in fighting in Ukraine would count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2023-10-21

Will the government of Belarus publicly announce or acknowledge that its armed forces have engaged in armed fighting in Ukraine before 21 October 2023?

2023-04-21

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["https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672536930725117952", "https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-21-2023", "https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-28-2023", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collective_Security_Treaty_Organization", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_Belarus#Republic_of_Belarus", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64664560", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/belarus-units-complete-training-russian-tactical-nuclear-missile-systems-2023-04-22/", "https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates", "https://eng.belta.by/president/view/lukashenko-against-severing-ties-with-eu-160927-2023/", "https://www.eurasiareview.com/05032023-how-quickly-the-west-forgot-it-was-their-2020-regime-change-project-that-drove-belarus-into-russias-arms-oped/"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2020-07-03

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1595

<p>Under Russia's current constitution, President Vladimir Putin is required to step down in 2024 (<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/10/vladimir-putin-amendment-power-russia-2024" target="_blank">Guardian</a>). A national vote on constitutional changes that, among other things, would allow him to continue serving as president was scheduled for 22 April 2020, but the vote was postponed due to COVID-19 (<a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/25/821539300/putin-delays-vote-that-could-help-keep-him-in-power" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-25/putin-delays-referendum-on-plan-to-stay-in-power-over-virus-fear" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/putin-backs-proposal-paving-way-for-new-presidential-term-11583848309" target="_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>). The processes for amending the Russian constitution are found in Chapter 9 (<a href="http://www.constitution.ru/en/10003000-10.htm" target="_blank">Constitution.ru</a>, <a href="https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/01/16/what-changes-is-putin-planning-for-russias-constitution-a68928)." target="_blank">Moscow Times</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;or&nbsp;</span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,&nbsp;<a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>

2020-07-07

Before 1 January 2021, will the Russian constitution be amended to allow Vladimir Putin to remain president after his current term?

2020-04-17

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1.0]]

{}

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

1.0

True

2023-11-13

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2878

<p>The potential for turmoil in Tunisia has raised fears of a broader crisis in the region (<a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-05-04/tunisia-facing-unprecedented-migration-crisis-as-bodies-wash-ashore" target="_blank">US News &amp; World Report</a>, <a href="https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2023-april-24/" target="_blank">Soufan Center</a>). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify, though not necessarily at the same time. If there is clear and credible evidence that the death of a detained protester is due to an injury incurred during a protest, only then would the death of such a prisoner count. For the purposes of this question, "civil unrest" would mean acts of violence including riots, arson, and armed insurrection.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2023-11-13

Between 12 May 2023 and 12 November 2023, will violence related to anti-government protests and/or civil unrest result in 250 or more fatalities in Tunisia?

2023-05-11

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["http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/05/21/tunisia.un/index.html", "https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/12/current-situation-tunisia", "https://www.lemonde.fr/en/le-monde-africa/article/2023/05/09/tunisia-s-fresh-water-reserves-are-dwindling-and-leading-to-rationing_6025965_124.html", "https://english.alarabiya.net/News/north-africa/2021/03/20/Tunisia-revolution-129-died-634-injured-official-count-shows", "https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-protests-death-count-human-rights-report/32224340.html"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2021-01-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1511

<p>The United Kingdom exited the European Union on 31 January 2020. The Withdrawal Agreement transition period ends on 31 December 2020, though there is provision for a possible extension (<a href="https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/XT-21054-2019-INIT/en/pdf" target="_blank">Europa</a>). If a trade deal is not concluded by the end of the transition period, there are fears that the ensuing “hard Brexit” could cause significant economic harm (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-50838994" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/options-uk-trading-relationship-eu" target="_blank">Institute for Government</a>). For more information on the EU trade negotiation process, please see (note stage #23): https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149616.pdf. An example of the Council of the European Union requesting the consent of the European Parliament to conclude a trade agreement is the EU-Canada accord in 2016 (<a href="https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2016/10/28/eu-canada-trade-agreement/" target="_blank">Europa</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;or&nbsp;</span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,&nbsp;<a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 28 December 2020</span>: Provisional approval, as described under Step #22 in the link in the third sentence in the question description, does not alone constitute the Council requesting the consent of the European Parliament to conclude an EU-UK trade agreement, which is Step #23.</p><p><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 12 October 2020</span>: A qualifying trade agreement would not have to cover all trade issues to close the question. Also, an agreement governing the buying and selling of good and services would constitute a "trade agreement."&lt;<br></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><hr><p>After review of the relevant Council Decision on the signing and provisional application of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement between the European Union and the United Kingdom (https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-13904-2020-INIT/en/pdf), as well as other related documents (see https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-14359-2020-INIT/en/pdf, §3) and correspondence with the Council's press office, <b>this question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2021</b>. For further detail on the context for this resolution, please see items §16 to §20 on the first link above.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>

2021-01-04

Before 1 January 2021, will the Council of the European Union request the consent of the European Parliament to conclude a European Union-United Kingdom trade agreement?

2020-01-31

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binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2022-08-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2278

<p>On 21 February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics in Ukraine as independent states, triggering international condemnation (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-60470900" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/02/21/1082146367/putin-ukraine-donetsk-luhansk" target="_blank">NPR</a>). As Russia pushes forces into Ukraine, there is speculation that Putin may recognize Transnistria, a breakaway region in eastern Moldova on Ukraine's western border, which already hosts Russian peacekeepers (<a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Transdniestria" target="_blank">Britannica</a>, <a href="https://neweasterneurope.eu/2022/02/21/could-transnistria-become-the-next-victim-of-russian-aggression/" target="_blank">New Eastern Europe</a>, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/11/transnistria-ukraine-crisis" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>, <a href="https://www.g4media.ro/ana-catauta-deputat-psd-liderii-separatisti-de-la-tiraspol-sunt-azi-la-moscova-si-incerarca-sa-includa-transnistria-pe-lista-regiunilor-separatiste.html" target="_blank">G4 Media</a> [in Romanian]).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 24 February 2022</span>: The question description didn't load properly at launch. It has been added above.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2022-08-01

Will Russia officially recognize Transnistria (Pridnestrovskaia Moldavskaia Republic) in Moldova as an independent state before 1 August 2022?

2022-02-24

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["https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-news-live-putin-looting-steel-bound-for-uk-major-deal-to-relieve-food-crisis-to-be-signed-russian-forces-increasing-missile-use-12541713?postid=4197834#liveblog-body", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Transnistria_attacks#Posterior_attacks", "https://tv8.md/ru/2022/28/07/medvedev-a-publicat-o-harta-actualizata-a-europei-de-est-dupa-incheierea-razboiului-moldova-se-invecineaza-cu-rusia/206573", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_Russian_annexation_of_Transnistria", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X_-oDG1-x0I", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partitions_of_Poland#Third_Partition", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Transnistrian_presidential_election#Conduct", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1485310", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1371027", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/amid-ukraine-war-russian-parliament-hold-extraordinary-session-2022-07-11/", "https://ecfr.eu/publication/the-next-war-how-russian-hybrid-aggression-could-threaten-moldova/", "https://www.nrk.no/nyheter/utenriksdepartementet-frarader-alle-reiser-til-transnistria-naer-ukraina-1.16049217", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistria_conflict#United_Nations_Resolution_A/72/L.58", "https://worldcrunch.com/what-is-putins-endgame-in-odessa/particle-4", "https://worldcrunch.com/world-affairs/romania-nato-ukraine-war/reshuffling-in-bucharest", "https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-moscow-peacekeeping-forces-european-union-0f1967d2b0952b010336dad08fbd3f56", "https://www.rferl.org/a/week-in-russia-gutterman-russia-putin-war-analysis/31954824.html", "https://www.conservativenewsdaily.net/breaking-news/where-will-putin-start-trouble-next-start-watching-transnistria/", "https://tv8.md/resources/2022/07/28/f7cc007a-e2b9-4775-8eca-8fc5418ba0e3_photo2022-07-2718-10-182.jpg", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OWMHmTdImSE", "https://tass.com/world/1484549", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OkxD53WYZmQ", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Transnistria_relations#Consular_relations", "https://worldcrunch.com/world-affairs/why-odessa-is-important", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Transnistrian_independence_referendum"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2022-03-30

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2243

<p>While North Korea tested a number of weapons in the past, the country has not launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) since 2017 (<a href="https://www.dw.com/en/what-do-we-know-about-north-koreas-missiles/a-60360966" target="_blank">Deutsche Welle</a>, <a href="https://www.38north.org/2022/01/another-north-korean-hypersonic-missile/" target="_blank">38 North</a>). For the purposes of this question, the estimated range of a launched ICBM will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (<a href="https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/dprk/" target="_blank">CSIS</a>). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>

2022-03-30

Before 1 January 2023, will North Korea launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000 km?

2022-01-14

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{}

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

1.0

True

2022-01-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868

<p>In the wake of the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), there's speculation that a trilateral free trade agreement among Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea may be within reach (<a href="https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-japan-south-korea-rcep-051029662.html" target="_blank">Yahoo News</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-china/japan-and-china-agree-to-restart-business-travel-coordinate-on-east-china-sea-idUSKBN284042" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://www.mofa.go.jp/ecm/ep/page23e_000337.html" target="_blank">Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs</a>). Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required for a "Yes" resolution.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>

2022-01-03

Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?

2020-12-16

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["https://www.mofa.go.jp/press/release/press4e_001968.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1202538", "https://www.eastoregonian.com/news/nation_world/with-no-summit-south-korean-president-to-skip-olympics/article_77148da5-528b-5891-969b-13f9cbbd7f5e.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1248791", "https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2021/02/2ae304227c45-japan-cabinet-oks-bill-to-ratify-rcep-trade-deal-including-china.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_multilateral_free-trade_agreements", "https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/04/16/u-s-japan-joint-leaders-statement-u-s-japan-global-partnership-for-a-new-era/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/20/world/asia/korea-china-election-young-voters.html", "https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2021/01/26/commentary/world-commentary/api-china-trade/", "https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/pafo.12142", "https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3147134/beijing-will-back-hong-kongs-entry-worlds-biggest-free", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1233878", "https://thediplomat.com/2020/11/could-rcep-help-improve-south-korea-japan-relations/", "https://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/arose/MR2Vox.pdf", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1221487", "https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/business/2021/12/07/s-korea-japan-to-be-united-by-first-free-trade-pact-in-february", "http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20210913000871", "https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3111754/can-china-japan-and-south-korea-follow-rcep-their-own-free", "https://www.china-briefing.com/news/how-european-union-businesses-can-reach-the-e21-trillion-rcep-free-trade-market-access-via-existing-agreements/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/japan-helps-87-companies-to-exit-china-after-pandemic-exposed-overreliance/2020/07/21/4889abd2-cb2f-11ea-99b0-8426e26d203b_story.htmlhttps://carnegieendowment.org/2020/10/21/south-korea-is-caught-between-china-and-united-states-pub-83019https://thediplomat.com/2020/11/south-korea-and-japan-continue-to-struggle-to-bridge-their-differences/", "https://www.china-briefing.com/news/belt-and-road-weekly-investor-intelligence-40-china-briefing-news/", "https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/world/china-sharpens-language-warns-taiwan-that-independence-means-war-204579", "https://capital.com/south-korea-to-ratify-asia-pacific-free-trade-agreement", "https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/US-China-tensions/US-led-digital-trade-proposal-heats-up-new-friction-with-China", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1262158"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2024-01-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2584

<p>In October 2022, the Kurdistan Parliament extended its current term because political parties in the regional party could not come to an agreement on holding elections in 2022 as planned (<a href="https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/29673-Kurdistan-Parliament-extends-its-legislative-term-by-a-year:-Speaker" target="_blank">Kurdistan24</a>, <a href="https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2022/10/09/Iraqi-Kurdistan-lawmakers-delay-polls-and-extend-term" target="_blank">Al Arabiya</a>, <a href="https://www.parliament.krd/english/" target="_blank">Parliament.krd</a>). The question would close early upon the official announcement that parliamentary elections will not take place in 2023.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2024-01-01

Will elections for the Kurdistan Parliament be held in 2023?

2022-10-13

[["2022-10-14", 0.6], ["2022-10-14", 0.65], ["2022-10-14", 0.6867], ["2022-10-14", 0.72], ["2022-10-14", 0.59], ["2022-10-15", 0.5925], ["2022-10-15", 0.578], ["2022-10-15", 0.545], ["2022-10-15", 0.54], ["2022-10-16", 0.585], ["2022-10-16", 0.5978], ["2022-10-16", 0.588], ["2022-10-16", 0.5345], ["2022-10-17", 0.5475], ["2022-10-17", 0.5483], ["2022-10-18", 0.567], ["2022-10-19", 0.585], ["2022-10-19", 0.627], ["2022-10-20", 0.633], ["2022-10-20", 0.633], ["2022-10-20", 0.631], ["2022-10-20", 0.594], ["2022-10-21", 0.57], ["2022-10-21", 0.6], ["2022-10-21", 0.59], ["2022-10-22", 0.67], ["2022-10-23", 0.671], ["2022-10-23", 0.656], ["2022-11-02", 0.675], ["2022-11-04", 0.677], ["2022-11-05", 0.697], ["2022-11-05", 0.701], ["2022-11-06", 0.687], ["2022-11-08", 0.687], ["2022-11-08", 0.727], ["2022-11-12", 0.698], ["2022-11-15", 0.699], ["2022-11-15", 0.713], ["2022-11-19", 0.714], ["2022-12-04", 0.715], ["2022-12-06", 0.75], ["2022-12-06", 0.752], ["2022-12-11", 0.747], ["2022-12-11", 0.747], ["2022-12-11", 0.737], ["2022-12-16", 0.736], ["2022-12-25", 0.737], ["2022-12-27", 0.737], ["2022-12-29", 0.674], ["2022-12-30", 0.674], ["2023-01-03", 0.695], ["2023-01-09", 0.696], ["2023-01-09", 0.69], ["2023-01-10", 0.691], ["2023-01-16", 0.692], ["2023-01-22", 0.693], ["2023-01-23", 0.678], ["2023-01-28", 0.679], ["2023-02-04", 0.669], ["2023-02-04", 0.66], ["2023-02-05", 0.653], ["2023-02-05", 0.652], ["2023-02-24", 0.652], ["2023-02-26", 0.651], ["2023-03-04", 0.647], ["2023-03-06", 0.642], ["2023-03-09", 0.651], ["2023-03-11", 0.642], ["2023-03-20", 0.642], ["2023-03-20", 0.644], ["2023-03-21", 0.64], ["2023-03-23", 0.571], ["2023-03-25", 0.561], ["2023-03-26", 0.558], ["2023-04-01", 0.528], ["2023-04-02", 0.493], ["2023-04-09", 0.484], ["2023-04-09", 0.472], ["2023-04-10", 0.491], ["2023-04-10", 0.506], ["2023-04-11", 0.497], ["2023-04-11", 0.484], ["2023-04-14", 0.482], ["2023-04-17", 0.482], ["2023-04-17", 0.467], ["2023-04-18", 0.458], ["2023-04-23", 0.461], ["2023-04-26", 0.496], ["2023-04-29", 0.488], ["2023-05-03", 0.491], ["2023-05-11", 0.486], ["2023-05-11", 0.476], ["2023-05-12", 0.491], ["2023-05-12", 0.488], ["2023-05-12", 0.5345], ["2023-05-15", 0.5618], ["2023-05-15", 0.5727], ["2023-05-19", 0.5864], ["2023-05-20", 0.5773], ["2023-05-25", 0.5682], ["2023-05-27", 0.5673], ["2023-05-29", 0.5636], ["2023-05-29", 0.5618], ["2023-05-31", 0.5233], ["2023-06-02", 0.5017], ["2023-06-02", 0.4933], ["2023-06-03", 0.4933], ["2023-06-16", 0.475], ["2023-06-20", 0.445], ["2023-06-21", 0.445], ["2023-06-23", 0.4383], ["2023-06-24", 0.42], ["2023-06-26", 0.4117], ["2023-07-02", 0.3933], ["2023-07-02", 0.385], ["2023-07-04", 0.3683], ["2023-07-04", 0.3658], ["2023-07-05", 0.3608], ["2023-07-06", 0.3517], ["2023-07-10", 0.35], ["2023-07-12", 0.3458], ["2023-07-13", 0.3508], ["2023-07-13", 0.3358], ["2023-07-16", 0.3342], ["2023-07-16", 0.3092], ["2023-07-20", 0.3092], ["2023-07-20", 0.3117], ["2023-07-21", 0.27], ["2023-07-22", 0.2658], ["2023-07-24", 0.2969], ["2023-08-05", 0.2815], ["2023-08-07", 0.2746], ["2023-08-08", 0.2708], ["2023-08-21", 0.2362], ["2023-08-22", 0.2331], ["2023-08-23", 0.1985], ["2023-08-23", 0.1954], ["2023-08-24", 0.1354], ["2023-08-24", 0.1354], ["2023-08-28", 0.1315], ["2023-08-30", 0.1238], ["2023-08-31", 0.115], ["2023-09-08", 0.1029], ["2023-09-08", 0.0993], ["2023-09-12", 0.0993], ["2023-09-13", 0.0986], ["2023-09-13", 0.095], ["2023-09-14", 0.0921], ["2023-09-14", 0.0914], ["2023-09-14", 0.0757], ["2023-09-16", 0.075], ["2023-09-19", 0.0393], ["2023-09-30", 0.0364], ["2023-10-02", 0.0321], ["2023-10-03", 0.08], ["2023-10-14", 0.0814], ["2023-10-20", 0.0814], ["2023-10-20", 0.0767], ["2023-10-22", 0.0727], ["2023-10-23", 0.076], ["2023-10-25", 0.0847], ["2023-10-27", 0.0847], ["2023-11-11", 0.0847], ["2023-11-11", 0.0827], ["2023-11-16", 0.0827], ["2023-11-17", 0.082], ["2023-11-19", 0.082], ["2023-11-19", 0.08], ["2023-11-20", 0.08], ["2023-11-22", 0.08], ["2023-11-25", 0.075], ["2023-11-26", 0.0744], ["2023-11-28", 0.0756], ["2023-11-29", 0.0756], ["2023-12-01", 0.0756], ["2023-12-01", 0.075], ["2023-12-02", 0.075], ["2023-12-08", 0.075], ["2023-12-08", 0.075], ["2023-12-11", 0.075], ["2023-12-11", 0.0706], ["2023-12-11", 0.0706], ["2023-12-17", 0.0706], ["2023-12-17", 0.0706], ["2023-12-18", 0.1241], ["2023-12-19", 0.1172], ["2023-12-21", 0.1172], ["2023-12-25", 0.1167], ["2023-12-26", 0.1156], ["2023-12-26", 0.1156], ["2023-12-26", 0.1095], ["2023-12-26", 0.1137], ["2023-12-27", 0.1137], ["2023-12-27", 0.108], ["2023-12-31", 0.1055], ["2023-12-31", 0.099], ["2024-01-01", 0.099]]

["https://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/02052023", "https://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/090720232", "https://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/16062023", "https://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/070320231", "https://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/080420233", "https://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/071220232", "https://anfenglish.com/news/kurdistan-national-congress-condemns-attack-on-sulaymaniyah-international-airport-66530", "https://thecradle.co/article-view/26301/us-looking-to-arm-iraqs-peshmerga-with-air-defenses", "https://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/14052023", "https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20230803-polls-in-northern-iraq-kurdish-regional-government-set-for-february-2024/", "https://thearabweekly.com/risks-armed-confrontation-partition-loom-iraqi-kurdistan-tensions-rise", "https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/30597-PM-Barzani-stresses-holding-Kurdistan-elections-in-2023", "https://www.basnews.com/en/babat/793970", "https://presidency.gov.krd/en/president-nechirvan-barzani-sets-the-date-of-kurdistan-region-elections/", "https://thecradle.co/article-view/25895/new-iraq-budget-bill-infuriates-kurdistans-ruling-family", "https://www.iraqoilreport.com/news/oil-ministry-eases-kurdistan-blacklist-pressure-45556/", "https://medyanews.net/iraqi-kurdistans-political-turmoil-continues-as-election-date-pushed-to-2024/", "https://shafaq.com/amp/en/Kurdistan/Four-Kurdish-parties-reveal-to-KDP-their-approach-regarding-elections", "https://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/120720231", "https://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/02022023-amp", "https://www.rudaw.net/turkish/kurdistan/030820237", "https://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/240620231", "https://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/26052023", "https://amwaj.media/media-monitor/mysterious-chopper-crashes-in-iraq-highlight-intra-kurdish-fractures", "https://gov.krd/english/government/the-prime-minister/activities/posts/2023/february/pm-masrour-barzani-welcomes-uk-ambassador-to-iraq/"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2024-01-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2605

<p>As of the launch of this question, it is generally believed that no fewer than nine countries in the world have nuclear weapons (<a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat" target="_blank">Arms Control Association</a>, <a href="https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/" target="_blank">Federation of American Scientists</a>). Whether a detonation is characterized as a test, an accident, a warning, or an attack would be immaterial, and the detonation of a device in orbit around Earth would count. A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (<a href="https://www.mass.gov/service-details/nuclear-regulatory-commission-nrc-fact-sheet-on-dirty-bombs" target="_blank">Mass.gov</a>). Whether or not a nuclear device has been detonated will be determined using credible open source media reporting. That determination must be made during the question's open period to count, as well as the detonation. </p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 5 October 2023</span>: The question is concerned with a nuclear device being detonated. A nuclear-fueled delivery system, like a missile, for a nuclear device is immaterial.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2024-01-01

Before 1 January 2024, will a nuclear device be detonated somewhere in the world?

2022-10-27

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["https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2023/09/103_359686.html", "https://www.memri.org/reports/irans-illicit-procurement-related-weapons-mass-destruction-netherlands-sweden-and-germany#_edn6", "https://www.turkiyenewspaper.com/politics/16825", "https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/s-korea-us-monitoring-possible-halt-in-n-korea-nuclear-reactor-186792", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/05/north-korea-yongbyon-nuclear-reactor-complex-halt-plutonium", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea", "https://www.38north.org/2023/09/sinpho-south-shipyard-new-submarine-makes-debut-but-with-many-questions-to-be-answered/", "https://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_northkorea/1115466.html", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/longform/2023/8/29/visualising-the-2056-nuclear-tests-conducted-since-1945", "https://www.38north.org/2023/09/the-sleeper-has-awakened-six-key-takeaways-from-the-roll-out-of-north-koreas-tactical-nuclear-attack-submarine/", "https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20231010006700315", "https://www.ft.com/content/c5ce76df-9b1b-4dfc-a619-07da1d40cbd3", "https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/rest-of-the-world-news/pyongyang-will-never-be-recognised-as-a-nuclear-weapon-state-avers-south-korea-articleshow.html", "https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/10/25/asia-pacific/north-korea-nuclear-test-preparations-complete/", "https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/north-koreas-new-nuclear-underwater-drone-torpedo-follows-russias-playbook", "https://world.kbs.co.kr/service/news_view.htm?lang=e&amp;Seq_Code=178277", "https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-nuclear-weapon-detonate-by", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/27/north-koreas-kim-shows-off-banned-missiles-to-russias-shoigu", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-nuclear-test-would-send-warning-signal-prompt-others-follow-suit-2023-10-09/", "https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world-news/north-korea-preparing-nuclear-test-31353220", "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/north-korea-says-it-conducted-tactical-nuclear-strike-drill-2023-08-30/?utm_source=Sailthru&amp;utm_medium=Newsletter&amp;utm_campaign=Daily-Briefing&amp;utm_term=083123", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x4U0nr-vzi0", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/5/putin-hints-russia-could-return-to-nuclear-testing", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/22/asia/nuclear-testing-china-russia-us-exclusive-intl-hnk-ml/index.html", "https://thediplomat.com/2023/11/china-ignores-north-koreas-provocations-at-its-own-risk/"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2021-02-03

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1899

<p>Russia and the U.S. signed the current "New START" treaty in 2010, which was intended to further reduce stockpiles of nuclear weapons in each country (<a href="https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/10/16/putin-proposes-one-year-extension-of-new-start-treaty-a71780" target="_blank">Moscow Times</a>). The treaty is set to expire on 5 February 2021 unless it is extended for up to five years by mutual agreement or superseded by another agreement (<a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/R41219.pdf" target="_blank">Federation of American Scientists</a>, <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/start-treaty-russia-putin-biden-nuclear-arms-1555874" target="_blank">Newsweek</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;or&nbsp;</span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,&nbsp;<a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>

2021-02-03

Will the New START treaty be extended by Russia and the U.S. before 6 February 2021?

2021-01-08

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["https://twitter.com/pranayrvaddi/status/1354092436264542208", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-russia-nuclear/biden-seeks-five-year-extension-of-new-start-arms-treaty-with-russia-idUSKBN29Q2I4", "https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2021/01/31/putin-signs-extension-of-last-russia-us-nuclear-arms-treaty/", "https://www.state.gov/on-the-extension-of-the-new-start-treaty-with-the-russian-federation/", "https://us.cnn.com/2021/01/26/politics/biden-putin-russia-phone-call/index.html", "https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-international-news-vladimir-putin-dmitry-medvedev-russia-6730cb38e8253a02d83c562841e7ed00", "https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/21/biden-russia-nuclear-pact-extension-461125", "https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2020-01/news/putin-invites-us-extend-new-start", "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/upper-house-russian-parliament-ratifies-111144358.html", "https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/01/new-start-nukes-russia.html", "https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/535570-urgent-extend-new-start-treaty-with-russia-now", "https://www.defensenews.com/smr/nuclear-arsenal/2021/01/21/biden-proposing-5-year-extension-of-nuke-treaty-with-russia-says-us-official/?utm_source=Sailthru&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=EBB%2001.22.21&amp;utm_term=Editorial%20-%20Early%20Bird%20Brief", "https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-01-26/kremlin-says-vigorous-efforts-needed-to-extend-russia-us-new-start-arms-treaty", "https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-vladimir-putin-russia-4b150a750b5b64378cc449481405beba", "https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2021/01/27/russian-parliament-oks-new-start-nuclear-treaty-extension-with-us/?utm_source=Sailthru&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=EBB%2001.28.21&amp;utm_term=Editorial%20-%20Early%20Bird%20Brief", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-usa-security-kremlin/russia-us-extend-new-start-arms-pact-kremlin-says-idUSKBN29V10N", "https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Foreign-Policy/2021/0122/An-encouraging-step-Russia-and-US-to-extend-nuclear-treaty?icid=rss", "https://www.politico.eu/article/putin-and-biden-confirm-extension-of-new-start-treaty/", "https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2479274/statement-by-john-kirby-chief-pentagon-spokesman-on-new-start/source/GovDelivery/", "https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/29/europe/russia-new-start-treaty-extension-intl/index.html", "https://tass.com/politics/1249313", "https://twitter.com/AP/status/1355195551554412548", "https://www.dw.com/en/us-russia-agree-to-extend-new-start-nuclear-arms-treaty/a-56354318", "https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/29/putin-russia-us-nuclear-arms-treaty-463779", "https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/new-start-all-you-need-to-know-about-us-russia-nuclear-arms-control-treaty-101611755500309.html"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

1.0

True

2021-12-15

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1936

<p>Former President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement (TPP) prior to ratification, and the remaining parties went forward without the U.S. and ratified the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) (<a href="https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2017/01/25/2017-01845/withdrawal-of-the-united-states-from-the-trans--pacific-partnership-negotiations-and-agreement" target="_blank">Federal Register</a>, <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-trans-pacific-partnership-tpp" target="_blank">Council on Foreign Relations</a>, <a href="https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/reengaging-asia-pacific-trade-tpp-roadmap-next-us-administration" target="_blank">Asian Society Policy Institute</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">&nbsp;or&nbsp;</span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,&nbsp;<a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>.&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>

2021-12-15

Before 15 December 2021, will the U.S. either formally seek to join or formally begin renegotiations with signatories regarding the TPP or CPTPP?

2021-02-12

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["2021-08-16", 0.02], ["2021-08-17", 0.02], ["2021-08-17", 0.02], ["2021-08-17", 0.02], ["2021-08-18", 0.02], ["2021-08-19", 0.02], ["2021-08-22", 0.02], ["2021-08-23", 0.02], ["2021-08-24", 0.015], ["2021-08-25", 0.015], ["2021-08-25", 0.01], ["2021-08-26", 0.01], ["2021-08-28", 0.01], ["2021-08-28", 0.01], ["2021-08-30", 0.01], ["2021-08-30", 0.01], ["2021-08-30", 0.01], ["2021-08-31", 0.01], ["2021-09-02", 0.01], ["2021-09-04", 0.01], ["2021-09-05", 0.01], ["2021-09-06", 0.01], ["2021-09-08", 0.01], ["2021-09-08", 0.01], ["2021-09-10", 0.01], ["2021-09-11", 0.01], ["2021-09-11", 0.01], ["2021-09-13", 0.01], ["2021-09-13", 0.01], ["2021-09-15", 0.01], ["2021-09-15", 0.01], ["2021-09-16", 0.01], ["2021-09-20", 0.01], ["2021-09-20", 0.01], ["2021-09-22", 0.01], ["2021-09-23", 0.01], ["2021-09-26", 0.01], ["2021-09-27", 0.01], ["2021-09-27", 0.01], ["2021-09-27", 0.01], ["2021-09-28", 0.01], ["2021-09-29", 0.01], ["2021-09-30", 0.01], ["2021-10-04", 0.01], ["2021-10-05", 0.01], ["2021-10-08", 0.01], ["2021-10-09", 0.01], ["2021-10-10", 0.01], ["2021-10-11", 0.01], ["2021-10-11", 0.01], ["2021-10-12", 0.01], ["2021-10-13", 0.01], ["2021-10-14", 0.01], ["2021-10-14", 0.01], ["2021-10-15", 0.01], ["2021-10-16", 0.01], ["2021-10-22", 0.01], ["2021-10-24", 0.01], ["2021-10-25", 0.01], ["2021-10-26", 0.01], ["2021-10-26", 0.01], ["2021-10-29", 0.01], ["2021-10-29", 0.01], ["2021-10-30", 0.01], ["2021-10-30", 0.01], ["2021-11-02", 0.01], ["2021-11-03", 0.01], ["2021-11-04", 0.01], ["2021-11-04", 0.01], ["2021-11-04", 0.01], ["2021-11-05", 0.01], ["2021-11-06", 0.01], ["2021-11-07", 0.01], ["2021-11-07", 0.0], ["2021-11-08", 0.0], ["2021-11-09", 0.0], ["2021-11-09", 0.0], ["2021-11-09", 0.0], ["2021-11-09", 0.0], ["2021-11-12", 0.0], ["2021-11-13", 0.0], ["2021-11-13", 0.0], ["2021-11-14", 0.0], ["2021-11-14", 0.0], ["2021-11-17", 0.0], ["2021-11-17", 0.0], ["2021-11-17", 0.0], ["2021-11-18", 0.0], ["2021-11-18", 0.0], ["2021-11-18", 0.0], ["2021-11-18", 0.0], ["2021-11-21", 0.0], ["2021-11-22", 0.0], ["2021-11-22", 0.0], ["2021-11-22", 0.0], ["2021-11-23", 0.0], ["2021-11-23", 0.0], ["2021-11-24", 0.0], ["2021-11-28", 0.0], ["2021-11-28", 0.0], ["2021-11-29", 0.0], ["2021-11-30", 0.0], ["2021-12-01", 0.0], ["2021-12-02", 0.0], ["2021-12-02", 0.0], ["2021-12-03", 0.0], ["2021-12-06", 0.0], ["2021-12-08", 0.0], ["2021-12-09", 0.0], ["2021-12-09", 0.0], ["2021-12-09", 0.0], ["2021-12-09", 0.0], ["2021-12-12", 0.0], ["2021-12-13", 0.0], ["2021-12-13", 0.0], ["2021-12-13", 0.0], ["2021-12-13", 0.0], ["2021-12-13", 0.0], ["2021-12-13", 0.0], ["2021-12-14", 0.0], ["2021-12-15", 0.0]]

["https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used", "https://ballotpedia.org/Confirmation_process_for_Katherine_Tai_for_U.S._trade_representative", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJ7apo19fDM", "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/20/vp-kamala-harris-to-visit-singapore-vietnam-amid-us-china-tensions.html", "https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Biden-s-Asia-policy/Biden-s-trade-chief-pick-dodges-question-on-rejoining-TPP", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1232859", "https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/CPTPP-members-must-be-wary-of-China-s-attempt-to-join-trade-pact", "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/11/control-risks-on-biden-administration-rejoining-tpp-trade-deal.html", "https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2021/06/23/reconciling-the-rhetoric-and-reality-of-bidens-trade-policy/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/03/podcasts/transcript-ezra-klein-podcast-philip-tetlock.html", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/03/17/tai-trade-biden/", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/taxnotes/2020/12/22/its-not-just-the-taxes-and-tariffs-why-biden-should-reconsider-the-trans-pacific-partnership/?sh=5bff28aa1051", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2021/07/07/imf-tells-biden-to-dump-trumps-tariffs/?sh=6693e0a242b3", "https://www.cfr.org/article/presidential-candidates-trans-pacific-partnership", "https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Biden-s-Asia-policy/Ex-US-trade-chiefs-pin-high-TPP-hopes-on-Katherine-Tai", "https://www.csis.org/analysis/cptpp-and-intellectual-property-rights-protection", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/japan-wants-u-s-back-in-the-tpp-it-will-likely-have-to-wait-11618570801?reflink=desktopwebshare_twitter", "https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2021/march/tradoc_159458.pdf", "https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3123178/bidens-nominee-trade-representative-speaks-us-china", "https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/Interview/Can-Biden-return-the-US-to-TPP-Does-it-matter-2-experts-explain", "https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/bidens-back-but-the-us-still-needs-to-rebuild-its-international-standing/", "https://www.npr.org/sections/president-biden-takes-office", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1249145", "https://www.rollcall.com/2021/03/09/yarmuth-sees-next-budget-reconciliation-process-starting-in-july/", "https://www.dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/in-force/cptpp/comprehensive-and-progressive-agreement-for-trans-pacific-partnership"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2023-03-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2713

<p>The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the CBRT (<a href="https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Core+Functions/Monetary+Policy/Central+Bank+Interest+Rates/1+Week+Repo" target="_blank">CBRT</a>).</p><p><i><b>NOTE</b>: Questions in the Fujitsu Hivemind Challenge have been partly crowdsourced through a research project and consequently may have experimental framings.</i></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2023-03-01

On 1 March 2023, will the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) 1-week repo interest rate be below 10.5%?

2023-01-16

[["2023-01-17", 0.78], ["2023-01-17", 0.79], ["2023-01-17", 0.81], ["2023-01-17", 0.8525], ["2023-01-17", 0.882], ["2023-01-17", 0.885], ["2023-01-17", 0.9014], ["2023-01-17", 0.9138], ["2023-01-17", 0.8122], ["2023-01-17", 0.824], ["2023-01-17", 0.8264], ["2023-01-17", 0.8242], ["2023-01-17", 0.8317], ["2023-01-17", 0.8262], ["2023-01-17", 0.8314], ["2023-01-17", 0.8393], ["2023-01-17", 0.8181], ["2023-01-17", 0.8259], ["2023-01-18", 0.8194], ["2023-01-18", 0.8289], ["2023-01-18", 0.8105], ["2023-01-18", 0.815], ["2023-01-18", 0.8143], ["2023-01-19", 0.8227], ["2023-01-19", 0.8227], ["2023-01-22", 0.796], ["2023-01-23", 0.768], ["2023-01-23", 0.792], ["2023-01-25", 0.8064], ["2023-01-25", 0.8036], ["2023-01-27", 0.83], ["2023-01-27", 0.8433], ["2023-01-27", 0.7608], ["2023-01-28", 0.8058], ["2023-01-30", 0.7925], ["2023-01-31", 0.8085], ["2023-01-31", 0.8162], ["2023-01-31", 0.7579], ["2023-01-31", 0.8293], ["2023-02-01", 0.815], ["2023-02-01", 0.8343], ["2023-02-01", 0.832], ["2023-02-01", 0.8473], ["2023-02-02", 0.846], ["2023-02-02", 0.8181], ["2023-02-04", 0.815], ["2023-02-05", 0.8044], ["2023-02-06", 0.8013], ["2023-02-07", 0.7981], ["2023-02-07", 0.8488], ["2023-02-08", 0.8488], ["2023-02-09", 0.8494], ["2023-02-10", 0.8506], ["2023-02-10", 0.8663], ["2023-02-11", 0.875], ["2023-02-11", 0.8794], ["2023-02-11", 0.8775], ["2023-02-13", 0.8788], ["2023-02-13", 0.8869], ["2023-02-14", 0.8806], ["2023-02-15", 0.8706], ["2023-02-17", 0.8675], ["2023-02-18", 0.8675], ["2023-02-18", 0.8581], ["2023-02-19", 0.8556], ["2023-02-21", 0.8619], ["2023-02-23", 0.865], ["2023-02-23", 0.87], ["2023-02-24", 0.8469], ["2023-02-24", 0.9056], ["2023-02-24", 0.9106], ["2023-02-24", 0.9119], ["2023-02-25", 0.915], ["2023-02-26", 0.9194], ["2023-02-26", 0.9194], ["2023-02-26", 0.9206], ["2023-02-26", 0.9219], ["2023-02-26", 0.9206], ["2023-02-27", 0.9176], ["2023-02-28", 0.9235], ["2023-02-28", 0.9212], ["2023-02-28", 0.9241], ["2023-02-28", 0.9382], ["2023-03-01", 0.9388], ["2023-03-01", 0.9388]]

{}

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

1.0

True

2023-09-23

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2920

<p>In May 2023, North Korea failed in an attempt to launch a spy satellite, but plans to try again (<a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/05/30/1178961618/north-korea-rocket-launch-military-satellite-south-korea" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-spy-satellite-ruling-party-c9f16baacd3a8bdb87d8393f481d0cb8" target="_blank">AP</a>). North Korea has previously put at least two satellites into orbit (<a href="https://www.38north.org/2022/03/a-north-korean-satellite-launch-what-to-watch-for/" target="_blank">38 North</a>). The purpose and operability of a satellite put into orbit is immaterial.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2023-09-23

Will North Korea successfully put a satellite into orbit before 23 September 2023?

2023-06-23

[["2023-06-23", 0.09], ["2023-06-23", 0.05], ["2023-06-23", 0.04], ["2023-06-23", 0.025], ["2023-06-23", 0.02], ["2023-06-23", 0.1025], ["2023-06-23", 0.142], ["2023-06-23", 0.1183], ["2023-06-24", 0.1014], ["2023-06-24", 0.095], ["2023-06-24", 0.19], ["2023-06-24", 0.171], ["2023-06-24", 0.1645], ["2023-06-24", 0.1618], ["2023-06-24", 0.1618], ["2023-06-24", 0.1483], ["2023-06-24", 0.14], ["2023-06-24", 0.1423], ["2023-06-24", 0.1714], ["2023-06-24", 0.1633], ["2023-06-24", 0.155], ["2023-06-24", 0.1459], ["2023-06-25", 0.1459], ["2023-06-25", 0.1378], ["2023-06-25", 0.1305], ["2023-06-25", 0.1365], ["2023-06-25", 0.131], ["2023-06-26", 0.1259], ["2023-06-26", 0.1243], ["2023-06-26", 0.1196], ["2023-06-26", 0.1176], ["2023-06-26", 0.1131], ["2023-06-26", 0.1119], ["2023-06-26", 0.115], ["2023-06-26", 0.1281], ["2023-06-26", 0.1236], ["2023-06-27", 0.0996], ["2023-06-27", 0.1083], ["2023-06-27", 0.11], ["2023-06-27", 0.1148], ["2023-06-27", 0.1142], ["2023-06-28", 0.1], ["2023-06-28", 0.1067], ["2023-06-28", 0.1567], ["2023-06-28", 0.1563], ["2023-06-28", 0.1537], ["2023-06-28", 0.1579], ["2023-06-29", 0.1616], ["2023-06-29", 0.1535], ["2023-06-29", 0.1605], ["2023-06-29", 0.155], ["2023-06-29", 0.1672], ["2023-06-29", 0.1839], ["2023-06-30", 0.1878], ["2023-06-30", 0.2317], ["2023-07-01", 0.2221], ["2023-07-01", 0.1963], ["2023-07-01", 0.1915], ["2023-07-02", 0.1975], ["2023-07-02", 0.2085], ["2023-07-02", 0.2055], ["2023-07-04", 0.202], ["2023-07-04", 0.2114], ["2023-07-04", 0.2076], ["2023-07-04", 0.2086], ["2023-07-04", 0.2186], ["2023-07-05", 0.2132], ["2023-07-05", 0.1868], ["2023-07-05", 0.1823], ["2023-07-06", 0.1732], ["2023-07-06", 0.1678], ["2023-07-06", 0.1691], ["2023-07-07", 0.1696], ["2023-07-08", 0.167], ["2023-07-08", 0.1608], ["2023-07-08", 0.1625], ["2023-07-08", 0.1563], ["2023-07-08", 0.1558], ["2023-07-08", 0.1558], ["2023-07-10", 0.1517], ["2023-07-12", 0.1513], ["2023-07-12", 0.1513], ["2023-07-12", 0.1521], ["2023-07-12", 0.1525], ["2023-07-12", 0.1521], ["2023-07-13", 0.146], ["2023-07-13", 0.146], ["2023-07-14", 0.152], ["2023-07-14", 0.1532], ["2023-07-14", 0.1572], ["2023-07-17", 0.1604], ["2023-07-18", 0.1608], ["2023-07-19", 0.1592], ["2023-07-19", 0.158], ["2023-07-19", 0.1558], ["2023-07-20", 0.1412], ["2023-07-20", 0.1385], ["2023-07-20", 0.1385], ["2023-07-21", 0.1377], ["2023-07-22", 0.1404], ["2023-07-23", 0.1385], ["2023-07-23", 0.1354], ["2023-07-25", 0.1458], ["2023-07-26", 0.1454], ["2023-07-27", 0.1492], ["2023-07-27", 0.1454], ["2023-07-28", 0.145], ["2023-07-29", 0.14], ["2023-07-29", 0.1412], ["2023-07-29", 0.1408], ["2023-07-30", 0.1415], ["2023-07-31", 0.1412], ["2023-08-01", 0.1408], ["2023-08-01", 0.1408], ["2023-08-01", 0.1581], ["2023-08-03", 0.1577], ["2023-08-04", 0.1563], ["2023-08-05", 0.1559], ["2023-08-05", 0.163], ["2023-08-05", 0.1626], ["2023-08-06", 0.1622], ["2023-08-06", 0.1585], ["2023-08-06", 0.1574], ["2023-08-07", 0.1567], ["2023-08-07", 0.1567], ["2023-08-08", 0.1552], ["2023-08-08", 0.1541], ["2023-08-08", 0.1541], ["2023-08-09", 0.1526], ["2023-08-09", 0.1441], ["2023-08-09", 0.1433], ["2023-08-09", 0.1444], ["2023-08-10", 0.1426], ["2023-08-12", 0.1389], ["2023-08-12", 0.1364], ["2023-08-12", 0.1357], ["2023-08-12", 0.135], ["2023-08-12", 0.1346], ["2023-08-13", 0.1357], ["2023-08-13", 0.1007], ["2023-08-14", 0.1004], ["2023-08-14", 0.0996], ["2023-08-15", 0.0989], ["2023-08-15", 0.0993], ["2023-08-15", 0.0989], ["2023-08-15", 0.0986], ["2023-08-16", 0.0979], ["2023-08-17", 0.0968], ["2023-08-17", 0.1021], ["2023-08-17", 0.1066], ["2023-08-17", 0.1059], ["2023-08-18", 0.1024], ["2023-08-18", 0.1034], ["2023-08-18", 0.1066], ["2023-08-18", 0.1062], ["2023-08-19", 0.1055], ["2023-08-19", 0.1048], ["2023-08-19", 0.1034], ["2023-08-19", 0.1059], ["2023-08-20", 0.1059], ["2023-08-21", 0.1048], ["2023-08-21", 0.1048], ["2023-08-22", 0.1213], ["2023-08-22", 0.1313], ["2023-08-22", 0.1513], ["2023-08-22", 0.148], ["2023-08-23", 0.1353], ["2023-08-23", 0.138], ["2023-08-23", 0.15], ["2023-08-23", 0.1557], ["2023-08-23", 0.1723], ["2023-08-23", 0.1793], ["2023-08-23", 0.1803], ["2023-08-23", 0.1633], ["2023-08-23", 0.1433], ["2023-08-23", 0.1217], ["2023-08-23", 0.1223], ["2023-08-24", 0.1057], ["2023-08-24", 0.1013], ["2023-08-24", 0.0813], ["2023-08-24", 0.0783], ["2023-08-24", 0.076], ["2023-08-24", 0.075], ["2023-08-25", 0.075], ["2023-08-25", 0.0733], ["2023-08-25", 0.073], ["2023-08-25", 0.0727], ["2023-08-26", 0.066], ["2023-08-26", 0.0653], ["2023-08-26", 0.0653], ["2023-08-27", 0.0587], ["2023-08-28", 0.058], ["2023-08-28", 0.0543], ["2023-08-28", 0.054], ["2023-08-29", 0.0533], ["2023-08-29", 0.0553], ["2023-08-29", 0.0537], ["2023-08-30", 0.0533], ["2023-08-30", 0.0523], ["2023-08-31", 0.0457], ["2023-09-01", 0.045], ["2023-09-01", 0.044], ["2023-09-01", 0.0745], ["2023-09-01", 0.0429], ["2023-09-01", 0.0429], ["2023-09-02", 0.039], ["2023-09-02", 0.0387], ["2023-09-03", 0.0374], ["2023-09-03", 0.0374], ["2023-09-04", 0.0326], ["2023-09-04", 0.0316], ["2023-09-04", 0.0316], ["2023-09-04", 0.0122], ["2023-09-04", 0.01], ["2023-09-04", 0.0084], ["2023-09-04", 0.0082], ["2023-09-05", 0.0082], ["2023-09-06", 0.0106], ["2023-09-06", 0.0091], ["2023-09-07", 0.0079], ["2023-09-07", 0.0076], ["2023-09-08", 0.0076], ["2023-09-08", 0.0079], ["2023-09-09", 0.0094], ["2023-09-10", 0.0094], ["2023-09-11", 0.0088], ["2023-09-11", 0.0088], ["2023-09-12", 0.0085], ["2023-09-12", 0.0085], ["2023-09-12", 0.0082], ["2023-09-12", 0.0082], ["2023-09-12", 0.0079], ["2023-09-12", 0.0115], ["2023-09-13", 0.0115], ["2023-09-13", 0.0106], ["2023-09-13", 0.0103], ["2023-09-13", 0.0088], ["2023-09-14", 0.0103], ["2023-09-14", 0.0103], ["2023-09-15", 0.0103], ["2023-09-15", 0.01], ["2023-09-15", 0.01], ["2023-09-16", 0.0097], ["2023-09-16", 0.01], ["2023-09-16", 0.01], ["2023-09-16", 0.01], ["2023-09-16", 0.0097], ["2023-09-16", 0.0097], ["2023-09-17", 0.0097], ["2023-09-17", 0.0103], ["2023-09-18", 0.0088], ["2023-09-18", 0.0086], ["2023-09-19", 0.0086], ["2023-09-19", 0.0086], ["2023-09-19", 0.0092], ["2023-09-20", 0.01], ["2023-09-20", 0.01], ["2023-09-20", 0.0075], ["2023-09-21", 0.0075], ["2023-09-22", 0.0072], ["2023-09-22", 0.0072], ["2023-09-22", 0.0031], ["2023-09-22", 0.0031], ["2023-09-23", 0.0031]]

["https://m.khan.co.kr/politics/north-korea/article/202306122056005", "https://m-en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20230809006400325", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unha", "https://www.bolnews.com/international/2023/08/north-korea-to-launch-satellites-into-space-soon/", "https://thehill.com/policy/international/4157277-north-korea-preparing-icbm-tests-and-spy-satellite-launch/", "https://news.yahoo.com/north-korean-leader-orders-sharp-164447108.html", "https://sejong.org/web/boad/1/egoread.php?bd=3&amp;itm=&amp;txt=&amp;pg=1&amp;seq=7265", "https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-satellite-us-drills-summit-67262f21543d6e859f324b02dc29c75e", "https://m5dergi.com/one-cikan/86427/", "https://www.nytimes.com/article/north-korea-missile-launch.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kwangmy%C5%8Fngs%C5%8Fng_program", "https://www.nknews.org/pro/north-korea-appears-to-test-rocket-engine-as-it-preps-for-next-satellite-launch/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-govt-issues-emergency-warning-over-j-alert-broadcasting-system-2023-08-23/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/north-korea-announces-it-will-launch-satellite-between-aug-24-31-into-yellow-sea-2023-08-21/", "https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-rocket-launch-satellite-d9d686ca04466c3069ed2f07b2cd70d1", "https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/tr/news/20230822_07/", "https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-spy-satellite-launch-21bbbbddadd46d5050c1792e7eb7984b", "https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-spy-satellite-ruling-party-c9f16baacd3a8bdb87d8393f481d0cb8", "https://www.geo.tv/latest/504127-north-korea-set-to-launch-its-satellites-into-space-yonhap", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malligyong-1", "https://www.npr.org/2022/05/18/1099874018/biden-asia-visit-north-korea-missile-nuclear-test", "https://sejong.org/web/boad/1/egoread.php?bd=3&amp;seq=7250", "https://youtu.be/V9xCq6RaNjQ?si=HlAEJBOmZiBeHGme", "https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-09-13-23/index.html", "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/north-korean-leader-may-visit-russia-to-meet-with-putin-report/2983493#"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2023-08-24

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2909

<p>Dock workers represented by the ILWU have been working without a contract since July 2022, and work stoppages at some West Coast ports have some looking to the White House to intervene (<a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2023-06-05/us-west-coast-labor-unrest-continues-amid-sparring-over-pay" target="_blank">US News &amp; World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/02/west-coast-ports-shut-after-union-workers-walk-off-job-over-wages.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.porttechnology.org/news/pressure-mounts-on-white-house-as-us-west-coast-strikes-persist/" target="_blank">Port Technology</a>). The question would close upon the vote by the union members approving the new collective bargaining agreement.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2023-09-01

Will the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) vote to approve a new collective bargaining agreement with the Pacific Maritime Association (PMA) before 1 October 2023?

2023-06-09

[["2023-06-09", 0.85], ["2023-06-09", 0.93], ["2023-06-10", 0.965], ["2023-06-10", 0.6433], ["2023-06-11", 0.7325], ["2023-06-11", 0.716], ["2023-06-12", 0.7633], ["2023-06-12", 0.7743], ["2023-06-12", 0.74], ["2023-06-13", 0.7422], ["2023-06-13", 0.7533], ["2023-06-14", 0.7611], ["2023-06-14", 0.7633], ["2023-06-14", 0.777], ["2023-06-14", 0.684], ["2023-06-15", 0.683], ["2023-06-15", 0.691], ["2023-06-15", 0.771], ["2023-06-16", 0.772], ["2023-06-16", 0.793], ["2023-06-16", 0.793], ["2023-06-20", 0.773], ["2023-06-23", 0.769], ["2023-06-24", 0.764], ["2023-06-27", 0.814], ["2023-07-02", 0.824], ["2023-07-07", 0.825], ["2023-07-13", 0.735], ["2023-07-15", 0.729], ["2023-07-16", 0.727], ["2023-07-18", 0.722], ["2023-07-23", 0.717], ["2023-08-08", 0.694], ["2023-08-13", 0.689], ["2023-08-14", 0.589], ["2023-08-15", 0.584], ["2023-08-15", 0.584], ["2023-08-17", 0.574], ["2023-08-23", 0.654], ["2023-08-24", 0.654]]

["https://www.ilwu63.net/50922-2/", "https://www.ilwu.org/coast-longshore-division-caucus-unanimously-votes-to-send-tentative-agreement-to-membership/", "https://www.ilwu.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/DispatcherAPR2015lores-1.pdf", "https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/15/west-coast-port-deal-with-ilwu-will-take-months-to-be-union-ratified.html", "https://splash247.com/white-house-hails-progress-made-in-us-west-coast-port-contract-negotiations/", "https://www.dailybreeze.com/2023/06/21/longshore-delegates-to-meet-in-long-beach-in-july-to-weigh-new-labor-contract/amp/", "https://www.ilwu.org/negotiating-committee-reaches-tentative-agreement-on-new-longshore-contract/"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

1.0

True

2022-01-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1951

<p>The outcome will be determined using data provided by SIPRI (<a href="https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex" target="_blank">SIPRI</a>, see the "Data for all countries" spreadsheet under the "Excel file" section). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in the spring of the following year. For 2019, SIPRI reported that the PRC's military expenditure as a percentage of GDP was 1.8886% ("Share of GDP sheet," cell BU99).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p><p></p><p><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 3 March 2021</span>: For resolution, we will compare the data for 2021 and for 2019 as they are reported in 2022.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>

2022-04-25

Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019?

2021-02-26

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{}

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

1.0

True

2023-08-11

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2758

<p>Hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan flared up most recently in September 2022, and tensions remain high despite the presence of Russian peacekeepers (<a href="https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220915-armenia-azerbaijan-agree-on-cease-fire-after-new-clashes" target="_blank">France 24</a>, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-12-15/russia-concerned-by-blocking-of-route-from-armenia-to-nagorno-karabakh" target="_blank">US News &amp; World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/germany-nagorno-karabakh-blockade-armenia-azerbaijan/32260134.html" target="_blank">Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty</a>). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results in a fatality (total, not each) for forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, the forces of Artsakh, the breakaway Armenian-majority republic in Nagorno-Karabakh, are considered Armenian forces.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2023-08-11

Between 10 February 2023 and 10 August 2023, will lethal confrontations between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel (forces) of Armenia and Azerbaijan result in 100 or more fatalities?

2023-02-10

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["https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/armenia-will-accept-karabakh-part-azerbaijan-subject-rights-guarantee-armenian-2023-05-22/", "https://news.am/eng/news/749568.html", "https://www.foreignaffairs.com/armenia/azerbaijan-armenia-could-spark-wider-crisis", "https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/pkk-terrorists-armenians-train-together-at-iranian-run-karabakh-camp/news/amp", "https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/caucasus/nagorno-karabakh-conflict/pressing-task-advancing-peace-talks-south-caucasus", "https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/2/27/turkey-earthquake-diplomacy", "https://carnegiepolitika.simplecast.com/episodes/karabakh-2023-K1mX7p2z", "https://panarmenian.net/m/eng/news/306413", "https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1641381322290495491", "https://asbarez.com/as-azerbaijani-forces-again-open-fire-at-artsakh-farmers-baku-makes-more-threats/", "https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20230504-blinken-says-deal-within-sight-after-armenia-and-azerbaijan-peace-talks", "https://news.am/eng/news/754458.html", "https://tass.com/world/1600817", "https://www.rferl.org/a/armenia-azerbaijan-fresh-clashes-border/32406000.html?utm_source=dailybrief&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=DailyBrief2023May11&amp;utm_term=DailyNewsBrief", "https://www.politico.eu/article/armenia-vow-recognize-azerbaijan-nagorno-karabakh-tensions/", "https://www.state.gov/armenia-azerbaijan-peace-negotiations/", "https://www.azernews.az/nation/207174.html", "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/azerbaijan-invites-representatives-of-karabakh-armenians-for-2nd-round-of-talks/2844376", "https://en.trend.az/azerbaijan/politics/3734219.html", "https://insiderpaper.com/armenia-azerbaijan-say-troops-killed-in-border-shootout/", "https://eurasianet.org/azerbaijani-state-media-hints-at-another-offensive-in-karabakh", "https://news.az/news/azerbaijani-president-if-armenia-is-really-interested-in-achieving-peace-in-the-region-then-its-armed-forces-must-completely-leave-karabakh", "https://armenianweekly.com/2023/04/24/schiff-resolution-calls-for-us-recognition-of-artsakh/", "https://oc-media.org/azerbaijan-arrests-32-shia-figures-as-tensions-flare-with-iran/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/soldiers-killed-firefight-between-armenia-azerbaijan-2023-04-11/"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2021-08-15

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1945

<p>Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny is already facing various criminal charges and sentences, which supporters contend is an effort to silence his criticism of President Putin and the Russian government (<a href="https://www.dw.com/en/russia-alexei-navalny-returns-to-court-for-slander-case/a-56464613" target="_blank">Deutsche Welle</a>, <a href="https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/02/as-it-happened-navalny-sentenced-to-2-years-and-8-months-in-penal-colony-a72803" target="_blank">Moscow Times</a>). In December 2020, the Investigative Committee, Russia's main criminal investigative committee, accused Navalny of fraud related to his use of funds from his various non-profit organizations (<a href="https://sledcom.ru/news/item/1526952/" target="_blank">Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation</a> [in Russian], <a href="https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/12/29/russia-opens-fraud-probe-against-navalny-a72522" target="_blank">Moscow Times</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">&nbsp;or&nbsp;</span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,&nbsp;<a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>.&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>

2021-08-15

Before 15 August 2021, will Alexei Navalny be convicted on any fraud charges related to his activities with his non-profit organizations?

2021-02-23

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["2021-07-06", 0.08], ["2021-07-06", 0.08], ["2021-07-06", 0.075], ["2021-07-07", 0.07], ["2021-07-07", 0.07], ["2021-07-09", 0.07], ["2021-07-10", 0.06], ["2021-07-10", 0.055], ["2021-07-10", 0.055], ["2021-07-12", 0.05], ["2021-07-12", 0.05], ["2021-07-13", 0.05], ["2021-07-13", 0.05], ["2021-07-14", 0.05], ["2021-07-15", 0.05], ["2021-07-15", 0.05], ["2021-07-16", 0.05], ["2021-07-17", 0.05], ["2021-07-19", 0.05], ["2021-07-19", 0.05], ["2021-07-20", 0.05], ["2021-07-21", 0.05], ["2021-07-22", 0.05], ["2021-07-23", 0.05], ["2021-07-24", 0.05], ["2021-07-25", 0.05], ["2021-07-26", 0.05], ["2021-07-27", 0.05], ["2021-07-27", 0.045], ["2021-07-28", 0.045], ["2021-07-28", 0.045], ["2021-07-29", 0.04], ["2021-07-29", 0.04], ["2021-07-29", 0.04], ["2021-07-30", 0.04], ["2021-07-30", 0.03], ["2021-07-31", 0.03], ["2021-07-31", 0.03], ["2021-08-01", 0.03], ["2021-08-01", 0.025], ["2021-08-02", 0.02], ["2021-08-02", 0.02], ["2021-08-02", 0.02], ["2021-08-03", 0.02], ["2021-08-03", 0.02], 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["https://www.eureporter.co/world/russia/2021/07/28/kremlin-critic-alexei-navalnys-website-blocked-by-regulator-before-election/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/kremlin-critic-navalny-discloses-details-extremism-ruling-2021-06-23/", "https://apnews.com/article/europe-russia-bills-government-and-politics-fc1328f358436b1d239dcad3ec2b417d", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-extends-house-arrest-kremlin-critic-navalnys-spokesperson-2021-07-21/", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/after-navalny-challenging-russias-putin-is-getting-even-harder-11627464602", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/09/world/europe/navalny-ban-putin-biden-summit.html", "https://tass.com/search?searchStr=Navalny&amp;sort=date", "https://sledcom.ru/news/item/1526952/", "https://www.newsweek.com/biden-wont-hold-back-jen-psaki-shuts-down-putin-spox-who-says-navalny-wont-come-summit-1600105", "https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20210212-kremlin-critic-navalny-back-in-moscow-court-for-slander-trial", "https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/08/10/navalny-allies-face-fresh-criminal-charges-a74743", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-finds-navalny-ally-sobol-guilty-breaching-covid-19-health-rules-2021-08-03/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/navalny-mocks-putin-over-accusation-he-consciously-left-coma-2021-06-17/", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/09/russian-court-expected-to-outlaw-alexei-navalnys-organisation", "https://www.themoscowtimes.com/tag/navalny", "https://www.dw.com/en/russia-alexei-navalny-says-he-is-facing-three-new-probes/a-57654608", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1243774", "https://pledgetimes.com/2021/06/disinformation-why-america-is-demanding-the-extradition-of-a-russian-businessman/", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-57422346", "https://tass.com/society/1250461", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/wife-kremlin-critic-navalny-delivers-borsch-cherries-3-day-prison-visit-2021-08-05/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-opens-new-investigations-into-jailed-kremlin-critic-navalny-navalnys-2021-05-25/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/close-ally-kremlin-critic-navalny-leaves-russia-amid-crackdown-rt-ren-tv-cite-2021-08-08/", "https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2021/06/10/why-is-vladimir-putin-so-afraid-of-alexei-navalny", "https://www.instagram.com/p/CPSkeFZNTag/"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2023-03-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2719

<p>At least 51% of nurses in England must be included in the announced pay increase for it to count. A one-off payment would not count (<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/jan/08/rishi-sunak-consider-one-off-payment-end-nurses-strikes" target="_blank">Guardian</a>).</p><p></p><p><i><b>NOTE</b>: Questions in the Fujitsu Hivemind Challenge have been partly crowdsourced through a research project and consequently may have experimental framings.</i></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2023-03-01

Between 18 January 2023 and 28 February 2023, will the UK Department of Health and Social Care announce a new increase in pay for nurses in England?

2023-01-18

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["https://www.england.nhs.uk/blog/transforming-perceptions-of-nursing-and-midwifery-a-challenge-that-comes-with-huge-opportunities/", "https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/feb/04/nurses-offer-to-call-off-strikes-if-sunak-matches-welsh-pay-offer", "https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/society/2023/feb/06/union-boss-calls-rishi-sunak-deluded-as-nhs-pay-row-escalates?espv=1", "https://bmcnurs.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12912-019-0378-3", "https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v45/n03/simon-wren-lewis/short-cuts", "https://www.england.nhs.uk/blog/improving-the-image-of-nursing-and-midwifery/"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2021-01-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1491

<p>A lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and Saudi Arabia is becoming an issue of increasing concern (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-42008809" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/09/20/middleeast/saudi-arabia-iran-robertson-analysis-intl/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/01/08/794704361/saudi-arabia-fears-being-drawn-into-u-s-iran-conflict" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/09/16/middleeast/saudi-attack-us-iran-options-intl/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps. Saudi Arabia's military forces include the General Directorate of Border Guard. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;or&nbsp;</span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,&nbsp;<a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>

2021-01-01

Before 1 January 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military or law enforcement forces of Iran and Saudi Arabia either in Iran or at sea?

2020-01-17

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["https://eurasiantimes.com/saudi-gives-green-signal-to-israel-can-putin-xi-defend-iran-against-an-impending-us-israel-attack/"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2021-09-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2007

<p>Speculation abounds as to whether Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer will retire after the current term (<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/06/politics/breyer-democrats-retirement-talk/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/551196-court-watchers-buzz-about-breyers-possible-retirement" target="_blank">The Hill</a>). The date that his retirement would take effect is immaterial.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">&nbsp;or&nbsp;</span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,&nbsp;<a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>.&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>

2021-09-01

Before 1 September 2021, will Justice Stephen Breyer announce his retirement from the US Supreme Court?

2021-05-14

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["https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/07/stephen-breyer-judge-learned-hand-longevity.html", "https://theweek.com/supreme-court/1004231/stephen-breyer-hints-at-retiring-from-the-supreme-court", "https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/15/justice-breyer-retirement-plans-499745?fbclid=IwAR1UDpICJLdP8cZRGarILRtNtyZu3aHz9y-77lXlHdHcIsk04xvP-w-L6XA", "https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-thinks-pressuring-breyer-to-retire-could-backfire-report-2021-8", "https://minnlawyer.com/2020/06/24/when-supreme-court-justices-defy-expectations/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-02/breyer-hires-four-law-clerks-for-next-term-high-court-confirms", "https://amzn.to/3fJw4WX", "https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/16/politics/stephen-breyer-supreme-court/index.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1277076", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/18/us/politics/will-breyer-retire-supreme-court.html", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/05/18/stephen-breyer-danger-deluded-institutionalist/", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2021/07/15/stephen-breyer-has-no-plan-to-retire-yet-from-supreme-court-he-says/?sh=3bf1e32947c8", "https://www.thenation.com/article/society/stephen-breyer-retirement", "https://www.abc15.com/national/newsy/democrats-concerned-about-future-of-supreme-court-pressure-justice-stephen-breyer-to-retire", "https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/25/us/politics/rbg-retirement-obama.html", "https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/07/stephen-breyer-just-answered-calls-for-him-to-quit.html", "https://reason.com/2021/04/15/is-stephen-breyer-about-to-retire-his-clerk-hiring-spree-suggests-otherwise/", "https://www.brookings.edu/research/turnout-in-2020-spiked-among-both-democratic-and-republican-voting-groups-new-census-data-shows/", "https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/15/politics/stephen-breyer-retirement-plans/index.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/16/us/politics/stephen-breyer-supreme-court-retirement.html?searchResultPosition=1", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1304148", "https://www.theguardian.com/law/2021/jul/15/stephen-breyer-supreme-court-justice", "https://theweek.com/articles/983261/stephen-breyer-delusional-about-supreme-court", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Pelican_Brief_(film", "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/senate-confirms-ketanji-brown-jackson-be-judge-powerful-appeals-court-n1270797?cid=sm_npd_nn_tw_blk"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2022-11-09

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2521

<p>All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats fighting to maintain control of the closely divided House (<a href="https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/" target="_blank">270 to Win</a>, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2022" target="_blank">Ballotpedia</a>). The outcome of the 2022 special election for the At Large House seat is immaterial.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2022-11-24

Will former Governor Sarah Palin win the general election for Alaska's At Large Congressional District in 2022?

2022-08-18

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["https://forecast.decisiondeskhq.com/house/H2022AK00", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/house/alaska/1/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/09/palin-begich-ranked-choice-voting/", "https://twitter.com/MaryPeltola/status/1586152112580435968", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10562/sarah-palin-elected-alaska-us-rep-in-22/", "https://drive.google.com/file/d/1sOccWXud_6qWZMuEqI0G4eSxFI9UZuDQ/view", "https://www.juneauempire.com/news/poll-peltolas-a-popular-pol/#:~:text=Rep.%20Mary%20Peltola%2C%20an%20Alaska%20Democrat%2C%20delivers%20a,is%20undetermined.%20%28Screenshot%20from%20official%20U.S.%20House%20video%29", "https://www.elections.alaska.gov/results/22SSPG/RcvDetailedReport.pdf", "https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politics-podcast-why-sarah-palin-lost/", "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-alaska-us-house-district-1.html", "https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1570451206685982723", "https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-midterms-2022/forecast/house/alaska#AL", "https://mobile.twitter.com/ZackBrownDC/status/1587169928322453505", "https://twitter.com/IvanMoore1/status/1584590043687292928", "https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1589685962526756864", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/house/", "https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/10/21/alaska-house-midterm-election-00062631", "https://elections-daily.com/2022/10/04/ratings-update-republicans-and-democrats-gain-in-under-the-radar-races/", "https://fairvote.org/press/alaska_cast_vote_record_released/", "https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/house-rating-changes-five-races-move-democrats-direction-including", "https://decisiondeskhq.com/introducing-the-2022-decision-desk-hq-forecast-model/", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/house/?cid=rrpromo", "https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1566865839978172421", "https://split-ticket.org/2022/10/09/october-house-temperature-check/", "https://www.axios.com/2022/09/01/democrat-mary-peltola-wins-upset-in-alaska-special-election"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2022-01-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2105

<p>The UK government lifted indoor occupancy limits and other COVID-19 restrictions on 19 July 2021, dubbed by many as "Freedom Day" (<a href="https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-what-are-the-remaining-rules-in-england-after-freedom-day-12359221" target="_blank">Sky News</a>, <a href="https://www.gov.uk/guidance/covid-19-coronavirus-restrictions-what-you-can-and-cannot-do" target="_blank">Gov.uk</a>). However, seasonalities and the Delta variants of SARS-CoV-2 and others continue to raise concerns that another round of restrictions may come (<a href="https://www.bustle.com/wellness/will-there-be-a-winter-2021-lockdown-in-the-uk" target="_blank">Bustle</a>, <a href="https://www.goodto.com/family/family-news/will-we-go-back-into-lockdown-this-year-595165" target="_blank">GoodtoKnow</a>). Restrictions indoors at home or in public places would not need to cover the whole of England to count, but restrictions specific to hospitals and medical care facilities would not count. The question would close upon restrictions taking effect.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 1 September 2021</span>: For the purposes of this question, regulated care homes are considered medical care facilities (<a href="https://datadictionary.nhs.uk/nhs_business_definitions/care_home.html" target="_blank">NHS Data Model and Dictionary</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 7 September 2021</span>: "Rule of Six"-type restrictions and household limits would count (<a href="https://inews.co.uk/news/rule-of-six-what-new-rules-meeting-people-outside-lockdown-roadmap-covid-restrictions-explained-882117" target="_blank">inews.co.uk</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 21 December 2021</span>: Legal restrictions in the form of curfews or closures of indoor public places taking effect would count.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>

2022-01-03

Will legal restrictions on the number of people who can meet indoors be imposed in England before 1 January 2022?

2021-08-19

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["https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-10344475/SIR-GRAHAM-BRADY-Cabinet-Ministers-lining-against-lockdown-best-Christmas-present-all.html", "https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1475509168362737664", "https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/458749/uk-reports-record-new-covid-19-cases-after-johnson-rules-out-restrictions", "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/25/uk-sets-new-record-for-covid-cases-as-omicron-sweeps-london.html", "https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-59792754", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/25/now-tory-mps-warn-dont-toughen-covid-new-year-rules", "https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/omicron-variant-coronavirus-news-12-20-21-intl/h_45e2ee39dc8e898efdb9b154da005837", "http://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-no-more-coronavirus-restrictions-in-england-before-new-year-sajid-javid-confirms-12504748", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1373582", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1374016", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1372668", "https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/whats-new/record/863ee4e6-faae-4c30-a935-431bc02640d9", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/27/cabinet-ministers-sceptical-of-stricter-covid-curbs-in-england", "https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/", "https://twitter.com/DDurwent/status/1475478267134099463", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1374056", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1373984", "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1043854/S1463_Warwick_Omicron_Modelling.pdf", "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59804686", "https://twitter.com/ChrisCEOHopson/status/1475540046677790723", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1373425", "https://www.chardandilminsternews.co.uk/news/national/19810285.pm-briefed-christmas-covid-data-hopes-grow-avoiding-extra-restrictions/", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/27/boris-johnson-will-impose-no-further-covid-restrictions-before-new-year", "https://lfpress.com/news/local-news/omicron-moving-quicker-than-we-can-identify-cases-londons-top-doctor", "https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing?areaType=overview&amp;areaName=United%20Kingdom"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2022-01-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1984

<p>Advocates are pushing for limits on the use of face recognition technology for various reasons, from privacy to claims of racial bias (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-protests-facialrecognition/u-s-lawmakers-aim-to-curtail-face-recognition-even-as-the-technology-ids-capitol-attackers-idUSKBN29N23L" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://www.aclu.org/news/privacy-technology/biden-must-halt-face-recognition-technology-to-advance-racial-equity/" target="_blank">ACLU</a>, <a href="https://www.natlawreview.com/article/anatomy-biometric-laws-what-us-companies-need-to-know-2020" target="_blank">National Law Review</a>). The date an executive order or federal legislation would take effect is immaterial. A prohibition with specific exemptions would count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>

2022-01-03

Before 1 January 2022, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would limit or prohibit US federal funds from being used to purchase face recognition technology?

2021-04-09

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["https://epic.org/2021/02/epic-coalition-urge-biden-admi.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1262012", "https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/05/21/1025155/amazon-face-recognition-federal-ban-police-reform/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/04/21/data-surveillance-bill/", "https://www.wired.com/story/bill-congress-limit-uses-facial-recognition/", "https://www.aclu.org/news/privacy-technology/wrongfully-arrested-because-face-recognition-cant-tell-black-people-apart/", "https://epic.org/privacy/facerecognition/FRT-Moratorium-and-Divestment-Coalition-Letter-July2020.pdf", "https://epic.org/2021/04/virginia-to-ban-local-police-f.html", "https://epic.org/cgi-bin/mt/mt-search.cgi?IncludeBlogs=10&amp;tag=facial%20recognition&amp;limit=50", "https://www.wyden.senate.gov/news/press-releases/wyden-paul-and-bipartisan-members-of-congress-introduce-the-fourth-amendment-is-not-for-sale-act-", "https://epic.org/banfacesurveillance/", "https://epic.org/privacy/surveillance/NYC-Facial-Recognition-Ban-Letter.pdf", "https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/senate-bill/4084", "https://www.nextgov.com/emerging-tech/2021/06/watchdog-10-government-agencies-deployed-clearview-ai-facial-recognition-tech/176411/"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2020-02-29

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1422

<p>The U.S. and Taliban were seemingly close to a peace agreement in September 2019, but talks abruptly ended after a Taliban attack (<a href="https://worldin.economist.com/article/17351/edition2020worst-afghanistan-could-be-yet-come" target="_blank">Economist</a>). Talks restarted in December 2019 (<a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u-s-taliban-talks-resume-raising-prospect-end-war-afghanistan-n1097981" target="_blank">NBC News</a>, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/12/resurrected-taliban-peace-talks-open-qatar-191207105319486.html" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>).</p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;or&nbsp;</span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,&nbsp;<a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>

2020-03-02

Before 13 July 2020, will the United States and Afghan Taliban sign a peace agreement?

2019-12-12

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binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

1.0

True

2020-09-17

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1628

<p>The UAE has implemented varying virus spread mitigation measures as it lifts many previous restrictions (<a href="https://ae.usembassy.gov/u-s-citizen-services/covid-19-information/" target="_blank">U.S. Embassy - UAE</a>). The outcome will be determined using information reported by the Johns Hopkins COVID-19 Dashboard (<a href="https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6" target="_blank">JHU COVID-19 Dashboard</a>). The relevant data can be accessed by selecting “United Arab Emirates” under “Confirmed Cases by Country/Region/Sovereignty” on the left side and then clicking the the “Daily Cases” tab on the bottom right.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Check our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;or&nbsp;</span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,&nbsp;<a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>

2020-09-19

Before 1 October 2020, will there be a period of at least 14 consecutive days without a new reported case of COVID-19 in the United Arab Emirates (UAE)?

2020-05-21

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{}

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2021-10-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1851

<p> Since taking office in 2019, President Bolsonaro has thus far survived scandals and the devastating effects of COVID-19 in the country (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/neither-plagues-nor-scandals-will-topple-brazils-populist-president" target="_blank">Economist</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">&nbsp;or&nbsp;</span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,&nbsp;<a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>.&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>

2021-10-01

Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil?

2020-11-25

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["https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-24/brazil-politics-bolsonaro-says-he-won-t-doubt-voting-system", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-15/bolsonaro-evolving-well-will-remain-hospitalized-for-treatment", "https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-says-sept-7-marches-will-not-be-violent-2021-08-26/", "https://apnews.com/article/health-caribbean-coronavirus-pandemic-brazil-d9bda666960e33c2aada04d2fb8187ff", "https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-bolsonaro-says-everyone-should-buy-rifle-2021-08-27/", "https://www.npr.org/2021/08/08/1025845710/bikers-rally-in-southern-brazil-in-support-of-president-bolsonaro", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-20/brazil-justice-takes-aim-at-bolsonaro-allies-for-attacking-court", "https://www.newspressnow.com/news/national_news/coronavirus/brazils-bolsonaro-recovers-in-hospital-no-surgery-planned/article_85097e19-cd5e-549b-bbd7-a8adf66bcd3e.html", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/16/brazils-bolsonaro-recovering-says-will-be-back-in-action-soon", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-57881111", "https://apnews.com/article/science-caribbean-brazil-b2e06ac9af1ec7b015b0ae6a1bf9ac98", "https://twitter.com/jairbolsonaro/status/1416044385972723714", "https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/21/americas/bolsonaro-scandals-health-scare-intl/index.html", "https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/05/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-fraud-supreme-court-investigation-intl/index.html", "https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazilians-take-streets-again-demand-bolsonaros-impeachment-2021-07-24/", "https://apnews.com/article/business-caribbean-brazil-68c07611f35de80866169ca6a0c2cc7d", "https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/29/americas/bolsonaro-brazil-elections-intl/index.html", "https://jacobinmag.com/2021/08/jair-bolsonaro-brazil-law-and-order-far-right-politics", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-28/bolsonaro-says-outcomes-at-elections-include-victory-or-death", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/03/brazil-election-authority-bolsonaro-fraud-claims", "https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-bolsonaro-disapproval-rating-rises-all-time-high-poll-2021-07-08/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/07/23/brazil-bolsonaro/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/bolsonaro-attacks-brazil-judges-warns-institutional-rupture-2021-08-14/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-bolsonaro-turns-center-right-senator-political-survival-2021-07-27/", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/carlieporterfield/2021/07/18/after-four-days-brazils-bolsonaro-is-discharged-from-hospital/"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2023-11-11

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2877

<p>International debt payments are coming due for Tunisia amid protracted negotiations with the IMF and general political and economic distress (<a href="https://www.africanews.com/2023/04/21/tunisian-president-slams-critics-following-opposition-leaders-arrest//" target="_blank">Africa News</a>, <a href="https://english.alarabiya.net/business/economy/2023/05/03/IMF-says-almost-there-in-lining-up-financing-for-Tunisian-1-19-bln-rescue-package" target="_blank">Al Arabiya</a>, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/4/biden-urged-to-halt-us-aid-to-tunisia-over-authoritarian-turn" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>). Fitch, Moody's, and S&amp;P are the "Big Three" global credit rating agencies, which assign ratings on a borrower's likelihood of repaying its debts (<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/creditrating.asp#toc-credit-ratings-scale" target="_blank">Investopedia - Credit Ratings Scale</a>). Restricted and selective defaults would count, as would a technical default (<a href="https://www.fitchratings.com/products/rating-definitions#ratings-scales" target="_blank">Fitch</a>, see "RD," <a href="https://info.creditriskmonitor.com/Help/SNPGlossary.asp#ICR-LT-SD" target="_blank">Credit Risk Monitor - S&amp;P</a>, see "SD," <a href="https://cbonds.com/glossary/technical-default/" target="_blank">Cbonds - Technical Default</a>). For the purposes of this question, "international debt" means debt denominated in a currency other than Tunisian dinars (e.g., <a href="https://cbonds.com/bonds/43193/" target="_blank">Cbonds - Tunisia Yen Bonds</a>, <a href="https://cbonds.com/bonds/470631/" target="_blank">Cbonds - Tunisia Euro Bonds</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2023-11-11

Before 11 November 2023, will Fitch, Moody's, and/or S&P announce that Tunisia has defaulted on its international debt?

2023-05-11

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["https://www.agbi.com/articles/tunisia-repays-74-of-debt-to-ease-default-fears/", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/11/tunisia-president-kais-saied-migration-europe-border-guard-comments-imf-bailout", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saudi_Arabia%E2%80%93Tunisia_relation", "https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/rating", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moody%27s_Investors_Service", "https://tradingeconomics.com/tunisia/rating", "https://www.al-monitor.com/pro/memos/tunisia-gains-economic-breathing-room-boost-saudi-arabia-budget-problems-linger", "https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/statement_23_3202", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saudi_Arabia%E2%80%93Tunisia_relations", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fitch_Ratings", "https://www.zawya.com/en/economy/north-africa/tunisia-threat-of-default-looms-large-unless-public-spending-curtailed-o2o8vxdp", "https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2022/10/15/pr22353-tunisia-imf-staff-reaches-staff-level-agreement-on-an-extended-fund-facility-with-tunisia", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunisia%E2%80%93United_States_relations", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qatar%E2%80%93Tunisia_relations", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_relations_of_Tunisia", "https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2023/07/17/the-contentious-eu-tunisia-deal-is-finally-here-but-what-exactly-is-in-it"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2022-07-14

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2396

<p>After weeks of protests over inflation and food shortages, Sri Lanka Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa resigned in early May while his brother Gotabaya continued on as the country's president (<a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/05/09/1097562723/the-prime-minister-of-sri-lanka-resigns-after-weeks-of-protests" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/07/asia/sri-lanka-president-rajapaksa-state-of-emergency-hnk-intl/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/crisis-hit-sri-lanka-lifts-curfew-for-buddhist-festival/6574479.html" target="_blank">Voice of America</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2022-07-14

Will Gotabaya Rajapaksa cease to be the president of Sri Lanka before 20 July 2022?

2022-05-20

[["2022-05-20", 0.05], ["2022-05-20", 0.08], ["2022-05-20", 0.05], ["2022-05-20", 0.08], ["2022-05-20", 0.11], ["2022-05-20", 0.135], ["2022-05-20", 0.11], ["2022-05-20", 0.135], ["2022-05-20", 0.16], ["2022-05-21", 0.135], ["2022-05-21", 0.135], ["2022-05-21", 0.11], ["2022-05-21", 0.11], ["2022-05-21", 0.105], ["2022-05-21", 0.105], ["2022-05-21", 0.105], ["2022-05-21", 0.1], ["2022-05-21", 0.1], ["2022-05-21", 0.085], ["2022-05-22", 0.085], ["2022-05-22", 0.07], ["2022-05-22", 0.07], ["2022-05-22", 0.085], ["2022-05-23", 0.1], ["2022-05-23", 0.105], ["2022-05-23", 0.11], ["2022-05-23", 0.105], ["2022-05-23", 0.105], ["2022-05-23", 0.1], ["2022-05-23", 0.125], ["2022-05-23", 0.125], ["2022-05-24", 0.225], ["2022-05-24", 0.3], ["2022-05-25", 0.3], ["2022-05-25", 0.3], ["2022-05-25", 0.3], ["2022-05-25", 0.3], ["2022-05-27", 0.23], ["2022-05-28", 0.135], ["2022-05-28", 0.135], ["2022-05-28", 0.135], ["2022-05-28", 0.13], ["2022-05-30", 0.13], ["2022-05-31", 0.125], ["2022-06-03", 0.13], ["2022-06-04", 0.13], ["2022-06-04", 0.115], ["2022-06-04", 0.115], ["2022-06-05", 0.11], ["2022-06-05", 0.11], ["2022-06-06", 0.06], ["2022-06-06", 0.06], ["2022-06-07", 0.08], ["2022-06-07", 0.08], ["2022-06-07", 0.07], ["2022-06-07", 0.055], ["2022-06-08", 0.055], ["2022-06-08", 0.055], ["2022-06-08", 0.055], ["2022-06-08", 0.055], ["2022-06-09", 0.05], ["2022-06-09", 0.05], ["2022-06-10", 0.05], ["2022-06-11", 0.04], ["2022-06-12", 0.04], ["2022-06-15", 0.03], ["2022-06-15", 0.035], ["2022-06-16", 0.035], ["2022-06-16", 0.035], ["2022-06-17", 0.02], ["2022-06-17", 0.02], ["2022-06-17", 0.035], ["2022-06-18", 0.035], ["2022-06-19", 0.03], ["2022-06-19", 0.03], ["2022-06-20", 0.015], ["2022-06-20", 0.01], ["2022-06-20", 0.01], ["2022-06-21", 0.02], ["2022-06-21", 0.02], ["2022-06-22", 0.02], ["2022-06-23", 0.02], ["2022-06-23", 0.02], ["2022-06-23", 0.02], ["2022-06-24", 0.02], ["2022-06-25", 0.02], ["2022-06-28", 0.015], ["2022-06-29", 0.015], ["2022-06-29", 0.015], ["2022-06-30", 0.01], ["2022-07-02", 0.01], ["2022-07-02", 0.01], ["2022-07-02", 0.01], ["2022-07-02", 0.005], ["2022-07-05", 0.0], ["2022-07-07", 0.0], ["2022-07-08", 0.0], ["2022-07-09", 0.0], ["2022-07-09", 0.005], ["2022-07-09", 0.01], ["2022-07-09", 0.015], ["2022-07-09", 0.025], ["2022-07-09", 0.025], ["2022-07-09", 0.04], ["2022-07-09", 0.04], ["2022-07-09", 0.04], ["2022-07-09", 0.04], ["2022-07-09", 0.04], ["2022-07-09", 0.04], ["2022-07-09", 0.04], ["2022-07-09", 0.05], ["2022-07-10", 0.6], ["2022-07-10", 0.64], ["2022-07-10", 0.91], ["2022-07-10", 0.91], ["2022-07-10", 0.94], ["2022-07-10", 0.96], ["2022-07-10", 0.99], ["2022-07-10", 1.0], ["2022-07-10", 1.0], ["2022-07-10", 1.0], ["2022-07-10", 1.0], ["2022-07-11", 1.0], ["2022-07-11", 1.0], ["2022-07-11", 1.0], ["2022-07-11", 1.0], ["2022-07-12", 1.0], ["2022-07-12", 1.0], ["2022-07-12", 1.0], ["2022-07-13", 1.0], ["2022-07-13", 1.0], ["2022-07-14", 1.0], ["2022-07-14", 1.0], ["2022-07-14", 1.0], ["2022-07-14", 1.0], ["2022-07-14", 1.0], ["2022-07-14", 1.0], ["2022-07-14", 1.0], ["2022-07-14", 1.0], ["2022-07-14", 1.0], ["2022-07-14", 1.0], ["2022-07-14", 1.0], ["2022-07-14", 1.0], ["2022-07-14", 1.0], ["2022-07-14", 1.0]]

["https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/05/19/sri-lanka-gotabaya-rajapaksa-mahinda-protests-long-haul/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_Sri_Lanka", "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/sri-lanka-police-fire-tear-gas-anti-government-protesters-2022-07-09/", "https://www.npr.org/2022/05/09/1097562723/the-prime-minister-of-sri-lanka-resigns-after-weeks-of-protests", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-62108597", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1477710", "https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/07/09/world/sri-lanka-protests-rajapaksa", "https://www.indiatoday.in/world/sri-lanka-crisis/story/sri-lanka-economic-crisis-live-updates-protests-president-gotabaya-rajapaksa-flees-ranil-wickremesinghe-1975339-2022-07-14", "https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/opinions/2022/5/20/rajapaksa-not-only-needs-to-go-but-also-face-accountability", "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/sri-lankans-storm-presidents-house-office-in-biggest-rally/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/china/brothers-odds-ruling-family-still-holds-key-sri-lankas-future-2022-06-08/", "https://www.ecchr.eu/en/publication/war-criminals-still-feel-safe-from-prosecution-in-sri-lanka/", "https://sg.news.yahoo.com/sri-lanka-defence-chief-rules-114122111.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/14/sri-lanka-on-a-knife-edge-as-promised-rajapaksa-resignation-fails-to-arrive", "https://www.colombotelegraph.com/index.php/legacy-of-the-sixty-two-coup/", "https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/sri-lanka-economic-crisis-president-gotabaya-rajapaksa-defeats-no-confidence-motion-1950652-2022-05-17", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/11/19/sri-lanka-gets-its-first-president-with-military-credentials", "https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/07/09/world/sri-lanka-protests-rajapaksa#sri-lanka-protests", "https://www.dw.com/en/protesters-storm-sri-lankan-presidents-colombo-residence/a-62416061", "https://www.rochester.edu/college/faculty/hgoemans/data.htm", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-06/sri-lanka-leader-vows-to-finish-term-won-t-run-for-re-election", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/9/sri-lanka-protesters-storm-president-house-demanding-resignation"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

1.0

True

2022-10-07

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2530

<p>Amid the war in Ukraine and concerns about energy supplies in Europe, the euro to US dollar exchange rate hit parity for the first time in two decades on 13 July 2022, meaning that one euro was worth one dollar (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/12/euro-and-us-dollar-near-parity-heres-what-that-means-for-travelers.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/what-does-euro-dollar-parity-mean-7b8bfe3429feefd9465e985369998e77" target="_blank">AP</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Google Finance (<a href="https://www.google.com/finance/quote/EUR-USD?hl=en&amp;window=6M" target="_blank">Google Finance</a>, set to "6M").</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2022-10-08

Will the closing value of the euro to US dollar exchange rate be higher than 1.00 on 7 October 2022?

2022-09-01

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["https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/sterling-stands-tall-after-uk-policy-u-turn-aussie-wobbles-before-rba-2022-10-04/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/30/opinion/us-dollar-global-impact.html", "https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1106505/why-we-expect-the-fed-to-cut-interest-rates-in-2023", "https://tinyurl.com/24w63j4m", "https://marketmilk.babypips.com/symbols/EURUSD/volatility", "https://twitter.com/robinbrooksiif/status/1573680606646525952", "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/EUR-USD?hl=en&amp;window=5Y", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1505592", "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1509719", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1509451", "https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2022/09/eurusd-forex-signal-looking-weaker-19-september-2022/184698", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1509900", "https://twitter.com/robinbrooksiif/status/1569244443542228995", "https://www.fxempire.com/currencies/eur-usd/forward-rates", "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/EUR-USD?hl=en&amp;window=6M", "https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-remains-in-a-downtrend-with-levels-as-low-as-09200-possible-credit-suisse-202210030617", "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/EUR-USD?hl=en&amp;window=5D"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2020-11-03

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1694

<p>In March 2020, the CARES Act was passed to provide funding to corporations and small businesses via the Paycheck Protection Program and to private citizens in the form of stimulus payments, among other financial initiatives (<a href="https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/cares" target="_blank">Treasury.gov</a>, <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/fiscal-policy/state-fiscal-responses-to-covid-19.aspx" target="_blank">National Conference of State Legislatures</a>). As the COVID-19 crisis continues, state and local governments are under stress, and proposals have been made for federal assistance (<a href="https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/articles/2020/06/16/how-covid-19-is-driving-big-job-losses-in-state-and-local-government" target="_blank">Pew Charitable Trusts</a>, <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/498917-aid-with-strings-attached-is-the-right-compromise-to-congressional-debate" target="_blank">The Hill</a>).<br></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused?&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Check our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;or&nbsp;</span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,&nbsp;<a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>

2020-11-03

Before 3 November 2020, will federal legislation to provide at least $100 billion in direct financial assistance to state and/or local governments become law?

2020-07-10

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{}

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2022-01-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1930

<p>In the wake of the storming of the Capitol Building, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security issued a bulletin warning of threats of domestic terrorism (<a href="https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/2021/01/06/dc-protests-capitol-riot-trump-supporters-electoral-college-stolen-election/6568305002/" target="_blank">USA Today</a>, <a href="https://www.dhs.gov/ntas/advisory/national-terrorism-advisory-system-bulletin-january-27-2021" target="_blank">DHS.gov</a>). For the purposes of this question, an "act of domestic terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) (<a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331" target="_blank">Cornell</a>). Examples include the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995, the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting in 2018, and the El Paso Walmart shooting in 2019. Cyberattacks would not count.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>

2022-01-03

Will there be an act of domestic terrorism in the United States resulting in 10 or more fatalities before 1 January 2022?

2021-02-10

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["https://www.npr.org/live-updates/buffalo-supermarket-shooting", "https://apnews.com/article/george-floyd-richmond-race-and-ethnicity-racial-injustice-virginia-6fe850aff69b858d99b34436b9b87d8b", "https://www.dhs.gov/national-terrorism-advisory-system", "https://www.dhs.gov/ntas/advisory/national-terrorism-advisory-system-bulletin-august-13-2021", "https://www.cdc.gov/injury/features/global-road-safety/index.html", "https://www.dhs.gov/ntas/advisory/national-terrorism-advisory-system-bulletin-january-27-2021", "https://www.nytimes.com/article/wisconsin-parade-attack-what-we-know.html", "https://www.clickorlando.com/news/politics/2021/06/14/us-intel-report-warns-of-more-violence-by-qanon-followers/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1231000", "https://www.toledoblade.com/local/police-fire/2021/07/05/toledo-police-chief-george-kral-news-conference-shooting-block-party/stories/20210705114", "https://www.csis.org/analysis/military-police-and-rise-terrorism-united-states", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1319581", "https://www.theguardian.com/media/2021/aug/31/fox-news-tucker-carlson-revolt-violence", "https://www.thecut.com/2017/01/why-americans-are-so-scared-of-terrorism.html", "https://www.rawstory.com/mass-shootings-2653744309/?utm_source=&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=7461", "https://www.businessinsider.com/dc-national-guard-standby-for-potential-qanon-violence-march-4-2021-2", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1277258", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1232017", "https://www.businessinsider.com/mike-lindell-claims-august-13-trump-reinstatement-2021-7", "https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&amp;sa=t&amp;url=https://www.newsweek.com/us-facing-over-twice-many-domestic-terror-threats-foreign-fbi-says-1633993&amp;ct=ga&amp;cd=CAEYACoTNjQ1MDI1NjM0MDcxODQ1NDAwMzIcNTBkMWU1NjA1YjJkOTExMzpjb206ZW46VVM6Ug&amp;usg=AFQjCNF68QrzXkejV6UZ4MUcDl1rNtH5CA", "https://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2021/10/11/st-paul-mass-shooting-1-dead-14-hurt-3-arrested/", "https://www.businessinsider.com/marjorie-taylor-greene-rejects-trump-reinstatement-conspiracy-theory-2021-7", "https://www.businessinsider.com/tulsa-race-massacre-events-could-be-attacked-by-white-supremacist-dhs-2021-5", "https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/06/politics/homeland-security-warning-political-conspiracy-threat-violence/index.html"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2023-12-16

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2913

<p>NATO continues to support Ukraine's defense against Russia without direct involvement (<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/13/blinken-previews-robust-package-for-ukraine-with-nato-secretary-general-00101734" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/nato-ukraine-russia-war-footing-1806011" target="_blank">Newsweek</a>). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results at least three fatalities (total, not each) for the national military forces and/or law enforcement of either side. As of launch, there were 31 NATO member states (<a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_52044.htm" target="_blank">NATO</a>). For the purposes of this question, members of armed forces fighting without command authorization are not considered "national military forces and/or law enforcement" (e.g., <a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-europe-d0243a1708a3115e5ad0ac40aed99b9f" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-60684749" target="_blank">BBC</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2023-12-16

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and/or law enforcement of Russia and those of a NATO member state resulting in at least three fatalities before 16 December 2023?

2023-06-16

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0.1196], ["2023-06-30", 0.1166], ["2023-07-02", 0.1131], ["2023-07-02", 0.0959], ["2023-07-02", 0.093], ["2023-07-03", 0.0893], ["2023-07-03", 0.0893], ["2023-07-04", 0.0917], ["2023-07-04", 0.092], ["2023-07-05", 0.0953], ["2023-07-06", 0.103], ["2023-07-07", 0.078], ["2023-07-08", 0.0755], ["2023-07-08", 0.0716], ["2023-07-09", 0.0726], ["2023-07-11", 0.069], ["2023-07-12", 0.0684], ["2023-07-13", 0.0652], ["2023-07-13", 0.0635], ["2023-07-13", 0.0623], ["2023-07-14", 0.0603], ["2023-07-14", 0.0588], ["2023-07-15", 0.0581], ["2023-07-15", 0.0591], ["2023-07-16", 0.0581], ["2023-07-16", 0.0564], ["2023-07-16", 0.0524], ["2023-07-17", 0.0539], ["2023-07-17", 0.0539], ["2023-07-18", 0.0524], ["2023-07-18", 0.0521], ["2023-07-18", 0.0579], ["2023-07-19", 0.0576], ["2023-07-19", 0.0518], ["2023-07-20", 0.0521], ["2023-07-20", 0.0518], ["2023-07-22", 0.0521], ["2023-07-24", 0.0521], ["2023-07-26", 0.0488], ["2023-07-27", 0.0485], ["2023-07-28", 0.0485], ["2023-07-28", 0.0515], ["2023-07-31", 0.0557], ["2023-07-31", 0.0554], ["2023-08-01", 0.0574], ["2023-08-01", 0.0574], ["2023-08-02", 0.0583], ["2023-08-02", 0.058], ["2023-08-02", 0.0577], ["2023-08-04", 0.0589], ["2023-08-04", 0.0594], ["2023-08-08", 0.06], ["2023-08-08", 0.0597], ["2023-08-09", 0.0597], ["2023-08-09", 0.06], ["2023-08-09", 0.0594], ["2023-08-11", 0.0592], ["2023-08-11", 0.0592], ["2023-08-11", 0.0578], ["2023-08-12", 0.0575], ["2023-08-13", 0.0562], ["2023-08-14", 0.0603], ["2023-08-15", 0.0597], ["2023-08-15", 0.0597], ["2023-08-15", 0.0597], ["2023-08-17", 0.0518], ["2023-08-17", 0.0503], ["2023-08-18", 0.05], ["2023-08-18", 0.0508], ["2023-08-19", 0.0505], ["2023-08-20", 0.0505], ["2023-08-21", 0.0484], ["2023-08-24", 0.0482], ["2023-08-25", 0.0405], ["2023-08-25", 0.0405], ["2023-08-26", 0.04], ["2023-08-27", 0.0397], ["2023-08-29", 0.0395], ["2023-08-30", 0.0389], ["2023-08-31", 0.0395], ["2023-09-02", 0.0382], ["2023-09-02", 0.0376], ["2023-09-03", 0.0376], ["2023-09-04", 0.0374], ["2023-09-05", 0.0372], ["2023-09-06", 0.0369], ["2023-09-06", 0.0364], ["2023-09-08", 0.0341], ["2023-09-08", 0.0341], ["2023-09-09", 0.0341], ["2023-09-09", 0.0338], ["2023-09-10", 0.048], ["2023-09-10", 0.0478], ["2023-09-11", 0.0483], ["2023-09-12", 0.0575], ["2023-09-13", 0.0575], ["2023-09-14", 0.0573], ["2023-09-15", 0.0573], ["2023-09-15", 0.0583], ["2023-09-17", 0.0583], ["2023-09-17", 0.0576], ["2023-09-18", 0.0574], ["2023-09-18", 0.0574], ["2023-09-19", 0.0571], ["2023-09-22", 0.0571], ["2023-09-23", 0.0571], ["2023-09-23", 0.055], ["2023-09-24", 0.059], ["2023-09-25", 0.0586], ["2023-09-25", 0.0581], ["2023-09-26", 0.0581], ["2023-09-26", 0.0576], ["2023-09-27", 0.0574], ["2023-09-27", 0.0571], ["2023-09-27", 0.0571], ["2023-09-28", 0.0558], ["2023-09-30", 0.0563], ["2023-09-30", 0.0567], ["2023-09-30", 0.0567], ["2023-10-01", 0.0574], ["2023-10-01", 0.0574], ["2023-10-01", 0.0563], ["2023-10-06", 0.0563], ["2023-10-06", 0.0555], ["2023-10-07", 0.0555], ["2023-10-08", 0.0555], ["2023-10-08", 0.0555], ["2023-10-09", 0.0555], ["2023-10-10", 0.0557], ["2023-10-10", 0.0557], ["2023-10-10", 0.0561], ["2023-10-12", 0.0625], ["2023-10-14", 0.0623], ["2023-10-14", 0.0623], ["2023-10-14", 0.0623], ["2023-10-14", 0.0602], ["2023-10-16", 0.0602], ["2023-10-16", 0.0598], ["2023-10-18", 0.0589], ["2023-10-19", 0.0591], ["2023-10-20", 0.0591], ["2023-10-21", 0.0591], ["2023-10-22", 0.0589], ["2023-10-22", 0.0543], ["2023-10-22", 0.0543], ["2023-10-22", 0.0543], ["2023-10-23", 0.0523], ["2023-10-24", 0.0527], ["2023-10-24", 0.0527], ["2023-10-24", 0.0532], ["2023-10-25", 0.0532], ["2023-10-25", 0.0507], ["2023-10-26", 0.0507], ["2023-10-27", 0.0505], ["2023-10-27", 0.0495], ["2023-10-27", 0.0505], ["2023-10-27", 0.0511], ["2023-10-28", 0.0527], ["2023-10-28", 0.0527], ["2023-10-29", 0.0518], ["2023-10-30", 0.0547], ["2023-10-30", 0.0547], ["2023-10-30", 0.0547], ["2023-10-31", 0.0535], ["2023-10-31", 0.0546], ["2023-10-31", 0.0533], ["2023-11-01", 0.0533], ["2023-11-01", 0.0528], ["2023-11-02", 0.0526], ["2023-11-02", 0.0526], ["2023-11-03", 0.0524], ["2023-11-05", 0.0524], ["2023-11-05", 0.0524], ["2023-11-06", 0.0522], ["2023-11-07", 0.0522], ["2023-11-07", 0.0522], ["2023-11-08", 0.0517], ["2023-11-08", 0.0515], ["2023-11-08", 0.0515], ["2023-11-08", 0.0515], ["2023-11-09", 0.0513], ["2023-11-11", 0.0513], ["2023-11-12", 0.0513], ["2023-11-13", 0.0513], ["2023-11-14", 0.0513], ["2023-11-15", 0.0517], ["2023-11-15", 0.0517], ["2023-11-17", 0.0513], ["2023-11-18", 0.0511], ["2023-11-18", 0.0511], ["2023-11-18", 0.0509], ["2023-11-18", 0.0509], ["2023-11-19", 0.0509], ["2023-11-20", 0.0509], ["2023-11-20", 0.0507], ["2023-11-20", 0.05], ["2023-11-21", 0.0496], ["2023-11-21", 0.0485], ["2023-11-21", 0.05], ["2023-11-23", 0.048], ["2023-11-23", 0.0476], ["2023-11-24", 0.0476], ["2023-11-24", 0.0474], ["2023-11-25", 0.0472], ["2023-11-25", 0.0472], ["2023-11-25", 0.047], ["2023-11-26", 0.0465], ["2023-11-26", 0.0385], ["2023-11-27", 0.0389], ["2023-11-27", 0.0389], ["2023-11-27", 0.0389], ["2023-11-27", 0.0367], ["2023-11-27", 0.0367], ["2023-11-28", 0.0365], ["2023-11-28", 0.0365], ["2023-11-28", 0.0339], ["2023-11-28", 0.0337], ["2023-11-29", 0.0337], ["2023-11-30", 0.0337], ["2023-11-30", 0.0328], ["2023-11-30", 0.0328], ["2023-11-30", 0.0328], ["2023-12-01", 0.0321], ["2023-12-01", 0.0321], ["2023-12-01", 0.0317], ["2023-12-01", 0.0315], ["2023-12-01", 0.0306], ["2023-12-02", 0.0304], ["2023-12-03", 0.0304], ["2023-12-03", 0.0304], ["2023-12-03", 0.0391], ["2023-12-03", 0.0389], ["2023-12-04", 0.0381], ["2023-12-04", 0.0381], ["2023-12-04", 0.0379], ["2023-12-06", 0.0377], ["2023-12-07", 0.0377], ["2023-12-07", 0.0377], ["2023-12-07", 0.024], ["2023-12-07", 0.024], ["2023-12-07", 0.024], ["2023-12-07", 0.024], ["2023-12-07", 0.0213], ["2023-12-08", 0.021], ["2023-12-08", 0.021], ["2023-12-08", 0.0206], ["2023-12-09", 0.0204], ["2023-12-09", 0.0196], ["2023-12-09", 0.0194], ["2023-12-10", 0.0194], ["2023-12-10", 0.0194], ["2023-12-11", 0.011], ["2023-12-11", 0.0108], ["2023-12-11", 0.0108], ["2023-12-12", 0.0106], ["2023-12-12", 0.0106], ["2023-12-12", 0.0104], ["2023-12-12", 0.0104], ["2023-12-13", 0.0098], ["2023-12-13", 0.0096], ["2023-12-14", 0.0096], ["2023-12-14", 0.0096], ["2023-12-14", 0.0094], ["2023-12-15", 0.0096], ["2023-12-15", 0.0096], ["2023-12-16", 0.0096], ["2023-12-16", 0.0096]]

["https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/16/7407196/", "https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/high-price-losing-ukraine", "https://news.yahoo.com/romanian-cargo-ship-falls-victim-121500997.html", "https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-warns-poland-attack-belarus-russia/", "https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/2/7413853/", "https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_50090.htm", "https://www.politico.eu/article/poland-belarus-helicopters-entered-polish-airspace-provocation-onet-report/", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65245065", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO%E2%80%93Russia_relations#Rising_tensions,_suspension_of_cooperation,_sanctions_(2014%E2%80%932021", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lublin_Triangle", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Khasham", "https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_192648.htm", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk-aims-offer-military-training-inside-ukraine-minister-says-2023-09-30/", "https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/nato-frmrchief-poland-baltics-forces-ukraine", "https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA2510-1.html", "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-66798508", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/07/nato-members-may-send-troops-to-ukraine-warns-former-alliance-chief", "https://news.yahoo.com/poland-deploys-attack-helicopters-border-141900475.html"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2023-11-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2921

<p>Fears remain that Russia may again invade the north of Ukraine via a renuclearized Belarus that is now providing sanctuary to the Wagner Group (<a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-prigozhin-wagner-belarus-ed3af6c3985242e69b07b6f9494cf117" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2023/06/25/Ukrainian-commander-on-possible-Wagner-attack-from-Belarus-Nothing-but-suicide-" target="_blank">Al-Arabiya</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/belarus-alexander-lukashenko-mistake-not-invade-ukraine-russia-2014-vladimir-putin/" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="https://eng.belta.by/president/view/belarus-to-work-out-procedure-for-using-tactical-nukes-in-face-of-aggression-159891-2023/" target="_blank">Belta</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (<a href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375" target="_blank">ISW</a>). The Ukrainian oblasts that border Belarus are Chernihiv, Kyiv, Rivne, Volyn, and Zhytomyr, which you can identify by zooming in on the ISW map application. For the purposes of this question, "Claimed Russian Control" would not count as ceasing to be under Ukrainian control, but "Assessed Russian Advance" and "Assessed Russian Control" would count as ceasing to be under Ukrainian control.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2023-11-01

Will territory in any Ukrainian oblast that borders Belarus cease to be under Ukrainian control before 1 November 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War?

2023-06-30

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["https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/6/30/russia-ukraine-live-hrw-says-kyiv-used-banned-landmines", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66249551", "https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/belarus-false-flag-ukraine-russia-b2387801.html", "https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-14-2023", "https://www.politico.eu/article/belarus-aleksander-lukashenko-improve-relations-poland/", "https://www.newsweek.com/tensions-simmer-between-poland-belarus-after-incursion-reported-1824178", "https://www.newsweek.com/wagner-group-prigozhin-mutiny-shoigu-belarus-update-1810416", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_agreements", "https://kyivindependent.com/official-number-of-russian-troops-in-belarus-decreases-to-around-4-000/", "https://www.kyivpost.com/post/20451"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2021-05-06

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1904

<p>The next Scottish Parliament election is scheduled to be held on 6 May 2021 (<a href="https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/covid-scotland-nicola-sturgeon-says-19564859" target="_blank">Edinburgh Live</a>, <a href="https://www.parliament.scot/visitandlearn/96259.aspx" target="_blank">Parliament.scot</a>, <a href="https://www.parliament.scot/msps/12450.aspx" target="_blank">Parliament.scot - Current State of the Parties</a>). First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party and opponent of Brexit, is seeking a strong result in the election to build momentum for a new referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54879211" target="_blank">BBC</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">&nbsp;or&nbsp;</span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,&nbsp;<a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>.&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>

2021-05-10

Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election?

2021-01-15

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["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rotten_and_pocket_boroughs#:~:text=A%20rotten%20or%20pocket%20borough,gain%20unrepresentative%20influence%20within%20the", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Scottish_Parliament_election#North_East_Scotland", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-08/johnson-rejects-scottish-referendum-calls-u-k-elections-update", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Scottish_Parliament_election#Mid_Scotland_and_Fife", "http://lgbc-scotland.gov.uk/about-us/commission", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aberdeenshire_West_(Scottish_Parliament_constituency)#Constituency_profile", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerrymandering#Etymology", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Parliament_constituencies_and_electoral_regions", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1243866", "https://www.bbc.com/turkce/haberler-dunya-57043028", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Scottish_Parliament_election#Lothian", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_East_Fife_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Scottish_Parliament_election#Election_system,_seats_and_regions", "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-56995136", "https://lgbc-scotland.gov.uk/sites/default/files/LGBCS_Register_Interests.pdf", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1273061", "https://www.ft.com/content/96c73698-46e5-4895-8d82-34c2d5e32b5b", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Scottish_Parliament_election#Results", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Local_Government_Boundary_Commission_for_Scotland", "https://bit.ly/3vQDzk0", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Scottish_Parliament_election#Glasgow", "https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/who-we-are-and-what-we-do/elections-and-referendums/past-elections-and-referendums/scottish-parliamentary-elections", "https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-57028315", "http://lgbc-scotland.gov.uk/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Burnett_(politician"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2020-06-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1415

<p>There have been nine NPT RevCons in the treaty's existence (<a href="https://worldin.economist.com/article/17371/edition2020nuclear-non-proliferation-fears-unhappy-50th-birthday" target="_blank">Economist</a>). The widely used metric of a successful conference is for all parties to reach consensus on a RevCon final document. Four RevCons have failed to reach consensus, but never before at consecutive conferences (<a href="https://www.europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/reviewing-a-review-conference-can-there-ever-be-a-successful-npt-revcon/" target="_blank">European Leadership Network</a>). The NPT RevCon is scheduled to take place in New York from 27 April to 22 May 2020 (<a href="https://www.state.gov/2020-review-conference/" target="_blank">State.gov</a>).<br></p><p style="margin-bottom:10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;or&nbsp;</span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,&nbsp;<a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>

2020-06-02

Will the 2020 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference (NPT RevCon) produce a consensus statement?

2019-12-06

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{}

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2022-07-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2300

<p>The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Tesla in its Production and Delivery press release for the second quarter of 2022, expected in early July 2022 (<a href="https://ir.tesla.com/#tab-quarterly-disclosure" target="_blank">Tesla</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2022-07-02

Will Tesla produce at least 330,000 vehicles in the second quarter of 2022?

2022-03-09

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["https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1429724", "https://cleantechnica.com/2022/05/05/q2-2022-will-be-monstrous-for-tesla/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gLlCrw9TQZA", "https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/barclays-sees-q2-risk-for-tesla-but-says-market-may-swing-trade-shares-up-432SI-2835691", "https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/status/1516384593347231748", "https://insideevs.com/news/583501/tesla-q2-2022-massive-deliveries-analyst/", "https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-china-numbers-what-to-expect-51654611619", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-21/musk-says-supply-constraints-biggest-brake-on-tesla-s-growth?utm_content=business&amp;utm_source=twitter&amp;utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business", "https://insideevs.com/news/581192/tesla-expects-make-1500000-vehicles-2022/", "https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/status/1526677578320433153", "https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-delays-plan-restore-shanghai-plant-output-pre-lockdown-levels-memo-2022-05-16/", "https://flightaware.com/", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-earnings-q1-2022-11650413167", "https://insideevs.com/news/587500/china-tesla-26000-evs-production-resumed/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-10/tesla-halts-output-at-shanghai-plant-on-supply-issues-reuters-l2zidh8r", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1445093", "https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-chinas-giga-shanghai-shutdown-evident-in-aprils-97-7-drop-in-vehicle-sales/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1448597", "https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-china-giga-shanghai-closed-loop-system-details/", "https://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/Tesla-dementiert-Produktionsstopp-in-Shanghai-article23321254.html", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/02/tesla-tsla-q1-2022-vehicle-production-and-delivery-numbers.html", "https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/exclusive-tesla-halts-production-shanghai-plant-due-supply-issues-sources-2022-05-10/", "https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-aims-run-two-shifts-shanghai-plant-may-16-memo-2022-05-06/", "https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502519-tesla-inc-tsla-ceo-elon-musk-on-q1-2022-results-earnings-call-transcript", "https://www.barrons.com/amp/articles/tesla-china-sales-51652112846"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2023-03-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2520

<p>Like most Arab states, Saudi Arabia does not officially recognize Israel despite some cooperation between the two countries (<a href="https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20220715-biden-commends-saudi-decision-to-end-israel-ban-by-opening-airspace-to-all-carries" target="_blank">France 24</a>, <a href="https://www.ibanet.org/article/D2659617-4CAB-4FE9-8B60-A971485EC3D6" target="_blank">International Bar Association</a>). Various Arab states recognized or agreed to normalize relations with Israel in 2020 (e.g., <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/12/10/945033413/morocco-becomes-latest-arab-country-to-normalize-ties-with-israel" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/23/politics/trump-sudan-israel/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2023-03-01

Will Saudi Arabia announce that it will normalize relations with the State of Israel before 1 March 2023?

2022-08-18

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["https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-04/israel-and-saudi-arabia-no-longer-enemies-but-not-quite-friends", "https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/saudi-arabia-us-israel-biden-mbs-oil-normalisation", "https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2020-08-21/ty-article/saudi-price-for-ties-with-israel-is-palestinian-state-says-saudi-royal/0000017f-db84-d3a5-af7f-fbae0a9b0000", "https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/917137-saudi-arabia-puts-conditions-for-ties-with-israel", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1526608", "https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/m.jpost.com/israel-news/article-724437/amp?espv=1", "https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/11/informal-ties-grow-between-israel-saudi-arabia", "https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-724199", "https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/netanyahu:-normalizing-ties-with-kingdom-of-saudi-arabia-top", "https://iranpress.com/content/70441/mbs-gives-demands-normalize-ties-with-israel", "https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20220715-biden-commends-saudi-decision-to-end-israel-ban-by-opening-airspace-to-all-carries", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/saudi-fm-rules-out-normalization-with-israel-without-a-two-state-solution/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/15/opinion/israel-palestinians-arabs-jews.html", "https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel/diplomacy/1670323077-exclusive-to-i24news-saudis-say-normalization-with-israel-matter-of-time", "https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/saudi-arabia-wont-normalise-israel-until-palestinian-statehood", "https://jcpa.org/what-are-the-prospects-for-normalization-between-saudi-arabia-and-israel/", "https://m.jpost.com/opinion/article-726558", "https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-731475", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cXNJ9I0arqw", "https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-708095", "https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-02-02/ty-article/.premium/israel-sudan-say-will-sign-peace-deal-in-2023/00000186-130c-d5d5-adef-379fe90f0000", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-03/saudi-crown-prince-says-israel-is-a-potential-ally-not-an-enemy", "https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/3568362-why-the-saudis-took-no-steps-toward-normalizing-relations-with-israel/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/15/opinion/israel-palestinians-arabs-jews.html?utm_source=pocket_saves", "https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-723325"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2023-01-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2585

<p>Widespread protests have broken out in Iran after a woman who was arrested for breaking hijab rules died in police custody (<a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/09/21/1124237272/mahsa-amini-iran-women-protest-hijab-morality-police" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/09/iran-protests-pose-new-test-clerical-leadership" target="_blank">Al-Monitor</a>, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-mahsa-amini-protests-spread-death-toll/" target="_blank">CBS News</a>). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify, though not necessarily at the same time. As of 12 October 2022, Iran Human Rights reported that 201 protesters had been killed (<a href="https://iranhr.net/en/articles/5517/" target="_blank">Iran Human Rights</a>). The outcome will be determined using available information no later than 4 January 2023.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2023-01-05

Between 16 September 2022 and 31 December 2022, will anti-government protests in Iran result in 1,000 or more protester fatalities, according to Iran Human Rights?

2022-10-13

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["https://www.iranintl.com/en/202211215741", "https://iranhr.net/en/articles/5572/", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/14/iran-issues-first-known-death-sentence-linked-to-recent-protests.html", "https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2022/10/18/irans-protests-spread-as-a-notorious-prison-burns", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OYsYgzzsdT0", "https://iranhumanrights.org/2022/10/iran-protests-state-trying-to-crush-dissent-through-more-killings-imprisonment/", "https://iranhr.net/en/articles/5582/", "https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/asien/iran-todesurteile-101.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2582-before-15-april-2023-will-ali-khamenei-either-flee-iran-or-cease-to-be-its-supreme-leader", "https://iranhr.net/en/articles/5583/", "https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-november-18):", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-63397159", "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-guards-head-tells-protesters-today-is-last-day-riots-2022-10-29/", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/12/4/iran-suspends-morality-police-what-does-it-mean", "https://iranhr.net/en/articles/5589/", "https://www.amnesty.org/en/documents/mde13/2308/2020/en/", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2583-before-15-april-2023-will-ebrahim-raisi-flee-iran-or-cease-to-be-its-president", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-protests-government-mahsa-amini-11669137860", "https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-october-16", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/05/world/europe/iran-morality-police.html?te=1&amp;nl=evening-briefing&amp;emc=edit_ne_20221206", "https://iranhr.net/en/tag/2415/", "https://iranhr.net/en/articles/#/all/all/1", "https://twitter.com/IranReportsNow/status/1585554851634757634", "https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/asien/iran-kurdengebiet-proteste-gewalt-101.html", "https://www.dw.com/en/iran-the-plight-of-families-of-detained-protesters/a-63651465#:~:text=They%20estimate%20that%20Iranian%20authorities,country%27s%20so%2Dcalled%20morality%20police"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2021-06-23

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1863

<p>Cedar Point Nursery sued California over state regulations allowing union organizers access to employees on their employers' property without compensation under limited circumstances (<a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-107" target="_blank">Oyez</a>, <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid/" target="_blank">SCOTUSblog</a>, <a href="https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/california-farmers-get-supreme-court-review-of-union-access-rule" target="_blank">Bloomberg Law</a>, <a href="https://www.natlawreview.com/article/scotus-to-consider-whether-california-unconstitutionally-takes-private-property-when" target="_blank">National Law Review</a>). The trial court dismissed the lawsuit and the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed (<a href="https://casetext.com/case/nursery-v-shiroma" target="_blank">Casetext</a>). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">&nbsp;or&nbsp;</span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,&nbsp;<a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>.&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>

2021-06-23

In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, will the Supreme Court rule that California's access regulation, as applied to Cedar Point Nursery, is a per se physical taking under the federal constitution?

2020-12-11

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["https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcripts/2020/20-107_3ebh.pdf", "https://cdn.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastore/opinions/2019/05/08/16-16321.pdf", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/20/opinion/Supreme-Court-labor-property-rights.html", "https://reason.com/volokh/2021/03/23/actual-property-law-in-cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid/", "https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/03/cedar-point-scotus/618405/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1261109", "https://www.hoover.org/research/labor-law-and-takings-clause-collide", "https://ij.org/cje-post/a-line-beyond-penn-central/", "https://reason.com/volokh/2021/03/23/additional-issues-in-cedar-point-v-hassid", "https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2021-03-22/supreme-court-hears-clash-between-california-agribusiness-and-farm-workers-union", "https://news.ballotpedia.org/2019/07/02/supreme-court-overturned-lower-court-rulings-at-lowest-rate-since-2015-term/", "https://reason.com/volokh/2021/03/22/supreme-court-hears-oral-argument-in-major-takings-case-property-owners-seem-likely-to-prevail/", "https://www.vox.com/2021/3/22/22344399/supreme-court-cedar-point-nursery-hassid-union-busting-california-brett-kavanaugh"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

1.0

True

2021-04-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1856

<p>The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/governments-must-judge-if-the-economic-recovery-needs-more-help" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020" target="_blank">IMF - June 2020</a>, <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/" target="_blank">World Economic Forum</a>). The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2021, which is expected in April 2021. At the IMF website (<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending" target="_blank">IMF</a>), choose the appropriate "World Economic Outlook Database"; then choose "Entire Dataset"; then download the "By Country Groups" file in the "Tab Delimited Values" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as "Gross domestic product, constant prices" and Units as "Percent change." Scroll over to the appropriate year. Estimated world GDP growth for 2021 was 5.152%, according to the October 2020 report (<a href="https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/WEO-Database/2020/02/WEOOct2020alla.ashx" target="_blank">IMF - October 2020</a>).</p><p><br></p><p>The Superforecaster version of this question is at <a href="https://goodjudgment.io/economist/" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">The Economist dashboard</a>.<br></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">&nbsp;or&nbsp;</span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,&nbsp;<a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>.&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>

2021-04-06

Will the IMF estimate for world GDP growth for 2021 be higher in its April 2021 World Economic Outlook report relative to its October 2020 report?

2020-12-04

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["https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2021/01/26/2021-world-economic-outlook-update#:~:text=Amid%20exceptional%20uncertainty%2C%20the%20global,and%204.2%20percent%20in%202022", "https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/profile/WEOWORLD", "https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/governments-must-judge-if-the-economic-recovery-needs-more-help", "https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2021/01/28/tr012621-transcript-of-the-world-economic-outlook-update-press-briefing#:~:text=In%20our%20latest%20World%20Economic,to%204.2%20percent%20in%202022", "https://ca.investing.com/news/commodities-news/crude-oil-prices-rise-as-imf-raises-growth-outlook%022341128", "https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/02/27/remarks-by%02president-biden-on-the-american-rescue-plan/", "https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56289063", "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/02/white-house-moves-up-vaccine-supply-timeline-says-us-will-have-enough-for-every-adult-by-end-of-may.html", "https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020", "https://www.un.org/development/desa/dpad/publication/world-economic-situation-and-prospects-february-2021-briefing-no-146/", "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/31/republican-senators-present-smaller-covid-proposal.html", "https://www.cfo.com/the-economy/2021/01/imf-more-optimistic-on-global-growth/", "https://www.investopedia.com/articles/pf/09/avoid-five-recession-risks.asp", "https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2021-02-24/imf-chief-urges-strong-g20-action-to-reverse-dangerous-divergence-in-global-economy", "https://odishatv.in/business_economy/world-gdp-to-grow-5-6-if-vaccines-roll-out-fast-524988", "https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/imf-downgrades-outlook-global-economy-face-virus-71426050#:~:text=For%202021%2C%20the%20IMF%20envisions%20a%20rebound%20in,percentage%20point%20weaker%20than%20in%20its%20April%20forecast", "https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/10y-treasury-hits-stunning-425-repo-yields-blow-out", "https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/1319", "https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook%02databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending", "https://www.statista.com/chart/22924/global-gdp-projections-made-before-and-during-covid-19-pandemic/", "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/26/imf-world-economic-outlook-jan-2021-update-covid-variants-are-a-risk.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/01/29/us/biden-trump-impeachment/biden-wants-republicans-to-back-a-1-9-trillion-relief-package-but-some-democrats-are-happy-to-go-it-alone", "https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/", "https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2021/01/26/2021-world-economic-outlook-update", "https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/09/30/world-economic-outlook-october-2020"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

1.0

True

2022-09-14

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2334

<p>Armenia and Azerbaijan most recently battled over the Nagorno-Karabakh region in 2020, with periodic skirmishes since despite the presence of Russian peacekeepers (<a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/armenia-karabakh-russian-peacekeepers-aghajanian/31770903.html" target="_blank">Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty</a>, <a href="https://eurasianet.org/russia-reproaches-azerbaijan-as-fighting-escalates-in-karabakh" target="_blank">Eurasianet</a>, <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/armenia-reports-6-soldiers-killed-in-clashes-with-azerbaijan/a-59872381" target="_blank">Deutsche Welle</a>). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results in a fatality (total, not each) for forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, the forces of Artsakh, the breakaway Armenian-majority republic in Nagorno-Karabakh, are considered Armenian forces.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2022-09-14

Between 1 April 2022 and 30 September 2022, will lethal confrontations between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel (forces) of Armenia and Azerbaijan result in 100 or more fatalities?

2022-04-01

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["2022-05-16", 0.33214285714285713], ["2022-05-17", 0.33535714285714285], ["2022-05-18", 0.32107142857142856], ["2022-05-18", 0.31], ["2022-05-18", 0.31285714285714283], ["2022-05-19", 0.30892857142857144], ["2022-05-20", 0.30857142857142855], ["2022-05-21", 0.3082142857142857], ["2022-05-22", 0.3078571428571429], ["2022-05-23", 0.29724137931034483], ["2022-05-23", 0.2982758620689655], ["2022-05-23", 0.2979310344827586], ["2022-05-24", 0.2882758620689655], ["2022-05-25", 0.2886206896551724], ["2022-05-25", 0.28172413793103446], ["2022-05-25", 0.2806896551724138], ["2022-05-26", 0.2803448275862069], ["2022-05-26", 0.2789655172413793], ["2022-05-26", 0.2772413793103448], ["2022-05-27", 0.2768965517241379], ["2022-05-31", 0.27586206896551724], ["2022-05-31", 0.25413793103448273], ["2022-06-02", 0.22241379310344828], ["2022-06-02", 0.2196551724137931], ["2022-06-03", 0.2193103448275862], ["2022-06-05", 0.2189655172413793], ["2022-06-05", 0.21827586206896551], ["2022-06-05", 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["2022-09-13", 0.4392], ["2022-09-13", 0.4492], ["2022-09-13", 0.4518], ["2022-09-13", 0.4703], ["2022-09-13", 0.4966], ["2022-09-13", 0.5058], ["2022-09-13", 0.5084], ["2022-09-13", 0.5089], ["2022-09-13", 0.5221], ["2022-09-13", 0.5471], ["2022-09-14", 0.5471]]

["https://www.barrons.com/amp/news/armenia-azerbaijan-leaders-to-hold-eu-mediated-talks-01661427307", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/13/armenias-pm-says-49-soldiers-died-in-clashes-with-azerbaijan.html", "https://armenianweekly.com/2022/07/27/will-iran-fight-azerbaijan-if-baku-seeks-to-invade-syunik/", "https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/conflict-resurges-between-armenia-azerbaijan-over-karabakh/news", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-seeks-to-calm-azerbaijan-and-armenia-after-49-killed-in-clashes/ar-AA11LlzF", "https://thehill.com/policy/international/3573693-blinken-talks-historic-opportunity-for-peace-in-call-with-armenia-azerbaijan-leaders/", "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/scarred-by-war-armenian-veterans-look-warily-to-the-future/articleshow/81376857.cms?from=mdr", "https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220803-new-tensions-explode-over-karabakh-3-soldiers-killed", "https://www.noticiasdealava.eus/actualidad/mundo/2022/04/11/armenia-azerbaiyan-preparan-acuerdo-paz/1180004.html", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/3/azerbaijan-launches-operation-armenian-forces-in-nagorno-karabakh", "https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/diplomacy/azerbaijan-accuses-armenia-of-targeting-military-positions-in-karabakh/", "https://twitter.com/ArmSpoxMFA/status/1570053671324360706?s=20&amp;t=DJ-eVZAn-m346XESaTloDA", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021%E2%80%932022_Armenia%E2%80%93Azerbaijan_border_crisis", "https://eurasianet.org/armenia-pledges-to-complete-karabakh-withdrawal-this-summer", "https://www.rferl.org/a/armenia-azerbaijan-eu-mediated-talks/32004310.html", "https://apnews.com/article/azerbaijan-armenia-1aa2ec4e28135a8667823476c391e3ea"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

1.0

True

2020-12-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1622

<p>The COVID-19 outbreak has greatly impacted the aviation industry (<a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/boeing-calhoun-airlines-bankruptcy-credit-default-swaps-51589294871" target="_blank">Barron's</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/11/airline-cash-grants-offered-by-federal-government-could-force-carriers-to-take-on-more-debt.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/16/business/airlines-bailouts/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>). The 18 carriers that were designated in Group III as of 1 January 2020 are listed here: <a href="https://www.bts.gov/sites/bts.dot.gov/files/docs/explore-topics-and-geography/topics/airlines-and-airports/227546/number-332-air-carrier-groupings-2020.pdf" target="_blank">Bureau of Transportation Statistics</a>. Bankruptcies by holding companies that wholly own a Group III air carrier would count.<br></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Check our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;or&nbsp;</span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,&nbsp;<a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>

2020-12-01

Between 15 May 2020 and 30 November 2020, will any Group III U.S. air carrier file for bankruptcy?

2020-05-15

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{}

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2022-01-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2102

<p>There have been reports of tensions between UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Chancellor Sunak (<a href="https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-rishi-sunak-writes-letter-to-pm-calling-for-relaxation-of-holiday-rules-to-boost-the-economy-reports-suggest-12369622" target="_blank">Sky News</a>, <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9876557/Boris-Johnson-confidence-Rishi-Sunak-No10-does-not-deny-discussed-demoting-him.html" target="_blank">Daily Mail</a>, <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/people/rishi-sunak" target="_blank">Gov.uk - Rishi Sunak</a>, <a href="https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/tension-between-rishi-sunak-boris-johnson-wait-for-autumn-b949298.html" target="_blank">Evening Standard</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>

2022-01-01

Will Rishi Sunak cease to be the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer before 1 January 2022?

2021-08-19

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["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election", "https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Boris_Johnson?content=trackers", "https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tories-are-no-longer-the-party-of-business-prznb268l", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dissolution_and_Calling_of_Parliament_Bill", "https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/i6p0fjb4ce/Internal_RishiSunak_210127.pdf", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chancellor_of_the_Exchequerntrolling", "https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Boris_Johnson", "https://www.parliament.uk/about/faqs/house-of-commons-faqs/business-faq-page/recess-dates/", "https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/tories-face-defeat-in-heartland-1420617.html", "https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/02/26/rishi-sunak-peoples-chancellor", "https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/christmas-party-photos-johnson-cummings-b1973625.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/18/tories-give-boris-johnson-months-to-improve-or-go?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/04/the-cough-the-p45-the-falling-f-theresa-mays-speech-calamity", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/sep/05/johnson-faces-tory-battle-over-tax-rise-as-cabinet-reshuffle-looms", "https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/snp-scotland-independence-europe-mep-b954831.html", "https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/rishi-sunak-approval-rating?period=all", "https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/voting-against-plan-b-is-a-vote-of-no-confidence-in-boris-johnson-gh8p808tq", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iain_Macleod", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rishi_Sunak", "https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/09/05/tory-party-grandees-join-national-insurance-tax-rise-revolt/", "https://yougov.co.uk/ratings/politics/popularity/conservative-politicians/all", "https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/conservatives-back-rishi-sunak-as-boris-johnsons-popularity-slides-2jlzxtcvl", "https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/should-boris-johnson-remain-as-leader-of-the-conservative-party", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/18/tories-give-boris-johnson-months-to-improve-or-go?"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2023-03-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2342

<p>The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act passed in 2017 suspended the "business use of home" tax deduction, which meant that those working from home who were not self-employed were generally denied the ability to deduct work-from-home expenses from their taxes (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/21/you-probably-cant-write-off-your-home-office-on-your-taxes.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://turbotax.intuit.com/tax-tips/small-business-taxes/the-home-office-deduction/L1RZyYxzv" target="_blank">Intuit TurboTax</a>, <a href="https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/irs-reminds-taxpayers-of-the-home-office-deduction-rules-during-small-business-week" target="_blank">IRS News Release 23 September 2020</a>, <a href="https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/p587.pdf" target="_blank">IRS Publication 587</a>). The date the legislation would take effect would be immaterial so long as it would take effect before 2026. Legislation generally authorizing employees to make the deductions, but with exceptions and/or dollar or percentage limits, would count.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2023-03-01

Will legislation generally permitting employees who work from home to itemize deductions related to home office expenses become law before 1 March 2023?

2022-04-05

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0.16898550724637681], ["2022-07-05", 0.16420289855072465], ["2022-07-12", 0.16271428571428573], ["2022-07-12", 0.16257142857142856], ["2022-07-13", 0.174], ["2022-07-14", 0.17357142857142857], ["2022-07-14", 0.177], ["2022-07-20", 0.1767142857142857], ["2022-07-21", 0.18528571428571428], ["2022-07-26", 0.18514285714285714], ["2022-07-27", 0.18228571428571427], ["2022-07-31", 0.18014084507042252], ["2022-08-01", 0.1747887323943662], ["2022-08-01", 0.17619718309859156], ["2022-08-02", 0.17549295774647888], ["2022-08-03", 0.1735211267605634], ["2022-08-08", 0.17295774647887324], ["2022-08-10", 0.17125], ["2022-08-11", 0.1698611111111111], ["2022-08-15", 0.16930555555555554], ["2022-08-16", 0.16916666666666666], ["2022-08-20", 0.1713], ["2022-08-23", 0.1701], ["2022-08-28", 0.1781], ["2022-08-28", 0.1767], ["2022-08-30", 0.1757], ["2022-08-30", 0.1757], ["2022-09-02", 0.1758], ["2022-09-02", 0.1765], ["2022-09-08", 0.1781], ["2022-09-11", 0.1768], ["2022-09-12", 0.1766], ["2022-09-12", 0.1753], ["2022-09-16", 0.1669], ["2022-09-17", 0.167], ["2022-09-18", 0.1689], ["2022-09-20", 0.1569], ["2022-09-21", 0.155], ["2022-09-21", 0.155], ["2022-09-21", 0.153], ["2022-09-29", 0.1532], ["2022-09-30", 0.1584], ["2022-10-02", 0.1564], ["2022-10-05", 0.156], ["2022-10-05", 0.156], ["2022-10-05", 0.156], ["2022-10-08", 0.1622], ["2022-10-09", 0.1621], ["2022-10-17", 0.1621], ["2022-10-21", 0.1751], ["2022-10-22", 0.1748], ["2022-10-22", 0.1749], ["2022-11-04", 0.1745], ["2022-11-04", 0.1744], ["2022-11-05", 0.1743], ["2022-11-06", 0.1724], ["2022-11-08", 0.1723], ["2022-11-08", 0.1721], ["2022-11-13", 0.1721], ["2022-11-16", 0.1718], ["2022-11-17", 0.1645], ["2022-11-17", 0.1644], ["2022-11-20", 0.1515], ["2022-11-22", 0.1515], ["2022-11-23", 0.1522], ["2022-11-23", 0.1567], ["2022-11-23", 0.1567], ["2022-11-24", 0.1565], ["2022-11-26", 0.1565], ["2022-11-29", 0.1564], ["2022-11-30", 0.1564], ["2022-11-30", 0.1562], ["2022-12-01", 0.1641], ["2022-12-01", 0.1575], ["2022-12-02", 0.1581], ["2022-12-02", 0.1561], ["2022-12-03", 0.1536], ["2022-12-11", 0.1531], ["2022-12-12", 0.1531], ["2022-12-13", 0.1531], ["2022-12-19", 0.1525], ["2022-12-20", 0.1525], ["2022-12-21", 0.1512], ["2022-12-21", 0.1512], ["2022-12-26", 0.1511], ["2022-12-28", 0.1505], ["2022-12-29", 0.1487], ["2022-12-30", 0.1487], ["2023-01-03", 0.1457], ["2023-01-03", 0.145], ["2023-01-04", 0.1474], ["2023-01-07", 0.1473], ["2023-01-08", 0.1472], ["2023-01-11", 0.1471], ["2023-01-12", 0.1453], ["2023-01-14", 0.1441], ["2023-01-16", 0.143], ["2023-01-16", 0.1411], ["2023-01-17", 0.1411], ["2023-01-17", 0.141], ["2023-01-19", 0.141], ["2023-01-19", 0.1396], ["2023-01-20", 0.1385], ["2023-01-20", 0.1385], ["2023-01-22", 0.1385], ["2023-01-23", 0.1385], ["2023-01-23", 0.1379], ["2023-01-25", 0.1342], ["2023-01-26", 0.1336], ["2023-01-28", 0.1321], ["2023-01-29", 0.1321], ["2023-01-30", 0.1298], ["2023-01-31", 0.1298], ["2023-02-01", 0.1296], ["2023-02-03", 0.128], ["2023-02-03", 0.1279], ["2023-02-07", 0.1278], ["2023-02-10", 0.1276], ["2023-02-12", 0.1275], ["2023-02-12", 0.1253], ["2023-02-15", 0.1165], ["2023-02-15", 0.1145], ["2023-02-16", 0.1142], ["2023-02-16", 0.1142], ["2023-02-18", 0.1141], ["2023-02-19", 0.1133], ["2023-02-19", 0.1109], ["2023-02-19", 0.1106], ["2023-02-21", 0.1106], ["2023-02-21", 0.1101], ["2023-02-21", 0.1103], ["2023-02-22", 0.1102], ["2023-02-22", 0.1085], ["2023-02-22", 0.1083], ["2023-02-22", 0.107], ["2023-02-22", 0.1051], ["2023-02-23", 0.1051], ["2023-02-23", 0.1051], ["2023-02-24", 0.1049], ["2023-02-25", 0.1048], ["2023-02-26", 0.1048], ["2023-02-26", 0.1044], ["2023-02-26", 0.1044], ["2023-02-26", 0.1038], ["2023-02-27", 0.1032], ["2023-02-27", 0.1032], ["2023-02-28", 0.1031], ["2023-02-28", 0.1028], ["2023-03-01", 0.101], ["2023-03-01", 0.101], ["2023-03-01", 0.101]]

["https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/19/10-jobs-with-the-most-remote-work-opportunities-and-how-much-they-pay.html", "https://content.rollcall.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/2023CQRCCongressionalCalendar.pdf", "https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/taxes/2023/02/16/who-can-deduct-home-offices-taxes/11205648002/", "https://www.senate.gov/legislative/2022_schedule.htm"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2023-03-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2720

<p>For examples of previous resolutions in any way condemning Russia by name, please see https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/3990673?ln=en and https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/3965290?ln=en. Some variation of the verb "condemn" must be used in the resolution to count. In a related UN General Assembly resolution from October 2022, a total of 40 countries had either voted against the resolution (5 countries) or abstained (35 countries) (<a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/10/1129492" target="_blank">UN</a>).</p><p></p><p><i><b>NOTE</b>: Questions in the Fujitsu Hivemind Challenge have been partly crowdsourced through a research project and consequently may have experimental framings.</i></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2023-03-01

Between 18 January 2023 and 28 February 2023, will 60 or more countries in the UN General Assembly either vote against or abstain from voting on a resolution in any way condemning Russia by name?

2023-01-18

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["https://ecfr.eu/article/aggression-on-trial-the-tricky-path-towards-prosecuting-russian-war-leaders/", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64748349", "https://www.passblue.com/2023/01/15/ukraine-drops-its-peace-formula-summit-plan-to-be-held-at-the-un-in-february/", "https://www.voanews.com/a/un-general-assembly-will-vote-on-resolution-urging-lasting-peace-in-ukraine-/6971314.html", "https://www.un.org/en/ga/info/meetings/77schedule.shtml", "https://theowp.org/reports/will-there-be-a-special-tribunal-against-russia-over-the-ukraine-war/", "https://www.ibtimes.com/these-6-countries-vote-against-un-resolution-demanding-russia-withdraw-troops-ukraine-3671333", "https://www.google.co.uk/m?q=Condemn+meaning", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0UbcVODbISk", "https://www.gov.uk/government/news/ukraine-uk-joins-core-group-dedicated-to-achieving-accountability-for-russias-aggression-against-ukraine", "https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/3959039?ln=en", "https://zn.ua/amp/eng/how-ukraine-is-advancing-the-establishment-of-a-tribunal-to-put-putinco-on-trial-.html", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eleventh_emergency_special_session_of_the_United_Nations_General_Assembly", "https://www.justsecurity.org/84959/in-evaluating-immunities-before-a-special-tribunal-for-aggression-against-ukraine-the-type-of-tribunal-matters/", "https://euobserver.com/rule-of-law/156624", "https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-zelenskyy-g-20-summit-politics-united-nations-55352ee51c2ad3eeef55281a754e5479", "https://press.un.org/en/2023/ga12491.doc.htm", "https://www.kyivpost.com/post/11569", "https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/analysis/special-tribunal-russian-crime-aggression-ukraine", "https://www.passblue.com/2023/02/13/un-members-to-mark-the-1-year-anniversary-of-russias-war-on-ukraine-centered-on-a-peace-resolution/amp/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emergency_special_session_of_the_United_Nations_General_Assembly", "https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/articles/2023/01/30/7155153/index.amp", "https://www.gov.uk/government/news/london-to-host-major-international-meeting-on-war-crimes", "https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230222-un-to-convene-as-ukraine-allies-seek-votes-for-peace-resolution", "https://www.un.org/pga/77/2023/02/13/noon-briefing-highlights-13-february-2023/"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2023-01-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2141

<p>Recent media reporting indicates discussions regarding the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the US potentially changing its name to "Taiwan Representative Office" (<a href="https://www.roc-taiwan.org/us_en/index.html" target="_blank">Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States</a>, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/07810ece-b35b-47e7-a6d2-c876b7b40444" target="_blank">Financial Times</a>, <a href="https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-09-13/China-opposes-U-S-pondering-of-Taiwan-office-name-change--13wwMHtiKXu/index.html" target="_blank">CGTN</a>, <a href="https://www.cfr.org/blog/why-letting-taiwan-change-name-its-office-united-states-mistake" target="_blank">Council on Foreign Relations</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2023-01-01

Before 1 January 2023, will the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office officially change its name to include the word Taiwan?

2021-09-30

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["2022-12-08", 0.0141], ["2022-12-09", 0.0137], ["2022-12-10", 0.01], ["2022-12-12", 0.01], ["2022-12-14", 0.0096], ["2022-12-15", 0.0096], ["2022-12-17", 0.0063], ["2022-12-18", 0.0059], ["2022-12-19", 0.0041], ["2022-12-20", 0.0041], ["2022-12-21", 0.0039], ["2022-12-21", 0.0032], ["2022-12-21", 0.0025], ["2022-12-21", 0.0025], ["2022-12-23", 0.0014], ["2022-12-24", 0.0371], ["2022-12-24", 0.0014], ["2022-12-25", 0.0014], ["2022-12-26", 0.0014], ["2022-12-28", 0.0014], ["2022-12-29", 0.0014], ["2022-12-30", 0.0014], ["2022-12-30", 0.0014], ["2022-12-30", 0.001], ["2022-12-31", 0.0007], ["2023-01-01", 0.0007]]

["https://www.ft.com/content/07810ece-b35b-47e7-a6d2-c876b7b40444", "https://www.congress.gov/117/bills/s4428/BILLS-117s4428is.pdf", "https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-07-17/How-Biden-s-America-really-sees-Taiwan-11Y8B0nwLeM/index.html", "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/20/us-position-on-taiwan-unchanged-despite-biden-comment-official-says.html", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/07/lithuania-taiwan-china-dispute-geopolitics-europe-landsbergis/", "https://www.foreign.senate.gov/press/chair/release/menendez-graham-introduce-comprehensive_legislation-to-overhaul-us-taiwan-policy", "https://rollcall.com/2022/09/14/senate-panel-approves-taiwan-bill-after-diluting-some-provisions/", "https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/nancy-pelosis-taiwan-visit-bonnie-s-glaser", "https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3151322/joe-biden-says-he-and-chinas-xi-jinping-agreed-abide-taiwan", "https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3011801/taiwan-changes-name-de-facto-embassy-united-states-reflect", "https://apnews.com/article/europe-china-beijing-taiwan-lithuania-ce378b01a856b3bde0ca6f696832cfd4", "https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/4428/text?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%5B%22taiwan+policy+act%22%2C%22taiwan%22%2C%22policy%22%2C%22act%22%5D%7D&amp;r=1&amp;s=2#id4ED36635240242B2B9E77028EEDDDC74", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/08/01/senate-looks-update-deepen-us-taiwan-relationship/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/biden-says-he-chinas-xi-have-agreed-abide-by-taiwan-agreement-2021-10-05/"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2022-08-05

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2331

<p>The US has alleged that Russia is considering the use of chemical and biological weapons in Ukraine (<a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220322-biden-says-putin-considering-using-chemical-biological-weapons-in-ukraine" target="_blank">France 24</a>). As of launch, there were 30 NATO member states (<a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_52044.htm" target="_blank">NATO</a>). The use of chemical or biological agents confined to an individual or small group of individuals in noncombat situations would not count (e.g., Sergei and Yulia Skripal, Alexander Litvinenko, Viktor Yushchenko, Roman Abramovich (<a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10660919/How-Russias-FSB-poison-squad-target-high-profile-victims-displeased-Vladimir-Putin.html" target="_blank">Daily Mail</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60904676" target="_blank">BBC</a>). Ukraine includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea. Accusations about incidents prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine would be immaterial.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 12 April 2022</span>: An accusation of the use of white phosphorus alone would not be considered an accusation that chemical or biological weapons were used.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2022-08-05

Before 5 August 2022, will a NATO member state accuse Russia of using a chemical or biological weapon in Ukraine?

2022-04-01

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["https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2022/04/24/what-are-flechettes-a-brutal-weapon-used-in-ukraine", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aleksandr_Dvornikov#Russo-Ukrainian_War", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_Russia", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Use_of_chemical_weapons_in_the_Syrian_civil_war", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-braces-new-russian-offensive-moscow-dismisses-rape-allegations-2022-04-12/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction", "https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1513639055992442882", "https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/will-putin-use-chemical-weapons-in-ukraine/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1433478", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Go1OiN_x10", "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-white-phosphorus-russia-ukraine/", "https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-25", "https://kyivindependent.com/national/azov-says-russia-used-chemical-weapons-in-besieged-mariupol/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fos0rxeQi9E", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_phosphorus_munitions", "https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russian-attack-ukraine-chemical-plant-sievierodonetsk-b2091890.html", "https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/12/biden-admin-russia-chemical-weapons-00024709", "https://tass.com/politics/1440943", "https://globalnews.ca/news/8752429/ukraine-russia-chemical-weapon-attack-mariupol/", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/12/did-russia-really-use-chemical-weapons-mariupol-ukraine-expert-remain-sceptical", "https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-chemical-weapons-1.6420933", "https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-checking-unverified-information-that-russia-used-chemical-weapons-in-mariupol", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chemical_weapons_in_World_War_I", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azovstal_iron_and_steel_works#2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/11/pentagon-monitoring-reports-of-possible-russian-chemical-weapons-attack-in-mariupol.html"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2021-05-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1782

<p>Cyberattacks against voting systems in the 2020 elections are an object of continuing concern, including in California (<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/russian-hackers-who-disrupted-2016-election-targeting-political-parties-again-microsoft-says/2020/09/10/301dd5fe-f36c-11ea-bc45-e5d48ab44b9f_story.html" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>, <a href="https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/09/08/san-mateo-co-voter-registrar-working-with-state-feds-to-repel-hackers-foreign-cyberattacks/" target="_blank">CBS SF BayArea</a>, <a href="https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201720180AB2125" target="_blank">California AB 2125</a>, <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/post-election-audits635926066.aspx" target="_blank">National Conference of State Legislatures</a>). A relevant cyberattack against a federal, state, or local election system that changes vote totals and/or an election outcome for California would count. For purposes of this question, "voting system" is a system as defined by the U.S. Election Assistance Commission (<a href="https://www.eac.gov/voting-system" target="_blank">U.S. Election Assistance Commission</a>). This question will resolve based on available evidence no later than 1 May 2021.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">&nbsp;or&nbsp;</span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,&nbsp;<a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>.&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>

2021-05-01

Will any 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system?

2020-09-11

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["https://fortune.com/2020/11/02/election-cyber-security-2020/", "https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/24/suspected-russian-hackers-made-failed-attempt-to-breach-crowdstrike.html", "https://www.cnet.com/news/solarwinds-hack-hits-major-tech-companies-and-hospital-system-what-you-need-to-know/", "https://www.cisa.gov/news/2020/11/12/joint-statement-elections-infrastructure-government-coordinating-council-election", "https://www.howtogeek.com/667596/what-is-cobol-and-why-do-so-many-institutions-rely-on-it/#:~:text=COBOL%20handles%2095%20percent%20of,person%20credit%20card%20transactions%20possible", "https://www.npr.org/sections/live-updates-2020-election-results/2020/11/12/934377227/no-evidence-election-was-compromised-cybersecurity-agency-says", "https://www.axios.com/christopher-krebs-trump-2020-election-a40eec9d-a32a-4a04-824f-5ec13ba7f6e6.html", "https://shepherdgazette.com/sidney-powell-information-for-dismissal-of-dominion-lawsuit/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dominion_Voting_Systems"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2023-12-21

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2789

<p>The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has refuted reports that it plans to leave the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) amid policy differences between the UAE and Saudi Arabia (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/06/no-current-plan-for-the-uae-to-leave-opec-oil-alliance-sources-say.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/uae-has-no-plans-leave-opec-alliance-despite-fissures-saudi-arabia" target="_blank">Middle East Eye</a>). Qatar and other member countries have left the organization before (<a href="https://twitter.com/qatarenergy/status/1069476188190461957" target="_blank">Twitter</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/03/qatar-to-withdraw-from-opec-as-of-january-2019.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/qatar-leaves-opec" target="_blank">CSIS</a>). As of the launch of this question, there were 13 OPEC member countries (<a href="https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/about_us/25.htm" target="_blank">OPEC</a>). The date the country would cease to be a member of OPEC is immaterial.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2023-12-21

Before 1 January 2024, will an OPEC member country announce that it will leave the organization?

2023-03-10

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0.0126], ["2023-09-10", 0.0122], ["2023-09-15", 0.0126], ["2023-09-16", 0.0126], ["2023-09-16", 0.0126], ["2023-09-18", 0.0122], ["2023-09-20", 0.0113], ["2023-09-20", 0.0113], ["2023-09-27", 0.0113], ["2023-09-28", 0.0104], ["2023-09-29", 0.01], ["2023-09-30", 0.01], ["2023-10-01", 0.0091], ["2023-10-02", 0.0091], ["2023-10-04", 0.0091], ["2023-10-07", 0.0087], ["2023-10-09", 0.0087], ["2023-10-12", 0.0083], ["2023-10-15", 0.0083], ["2023-10-18", 0.0074], ["2023-10-19", 0.007], ["2023-10-23", 0.0067], ["2023-10-25", 0.0046], ["2023-10-25", 0.0058], ["2023-10-27", 0.0058], ["2023-10-28", 0.0058], ["2023-10-28", 0.0075], ["2023-10-30", 0.0075], ["2023-11-01", 0.0071], ["2023-11-02", 0.0067], ["2023-11-02", 0.0067], ["2023-11-03", 0.0079], ["2023-11-08", 0.0079], ["2023-11-14", 0.0071], ["2023-11-14", 0.0071], ["2023-11-14", 0.0071], ["2023-11-17", 0.0058], ["2023-11-18", 0.0058], ["2023-11-20", 0.0058], ["2023-11-22", 0.0058], ["2023-11-24", 0.0058], ["2023-11-25", 0.0054], ["2023-11-30", 0.0046], ["2023-12-01", 0.0046], ["2023-12-03", 0.0046], ["2023-12-03", 0.0042], ["2023-12-03", 0.0038], ["2023-12-07", 0.0033], ["2023-12-12", 0.0029], ["2023-12-12", 0.0029], ["2023-12-12", 0.0029], ["2023-12-17", 0.0029], ["2023-12-17", 0.0029], ["2023-12-20", 0.0021], ["2023-12-20", 0.0021], ["2023-12-21", 0.0021]]

["https://twitter.com/HESuhail/status/1501683226884321283", "https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/03/china-settles-first-lng-trade-yuan-uae-deal", "https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/06/no-current-plan-for-the-uae-to-leave-opec-oil-alliance-sources-say.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OPEC#Membership", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_relations_of_Saudi_Arabia#Bilateral_relations", "https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/about_us/25.htm", "https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-march-2023", "https://aviationsourcenews.com/airline/etihad-china-southern-to-cooperate-further/", "https://raiagroup.org/mbs-and-mbz-keeping-their-friends-close", "https://amwaj.media/media-monitor/amid-talk-of-contention-saudi-arabia-denies-rift-with-uae", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/11/what-to-expect-after-iran-saudi-arabia-agree-to-restore-ties", "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/media-report-that-uae-considering-leaving-opec-not-true-sources-2023-03-03/", "https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3213783/china-and-uae-team-build-abu-dhabi-space-tech-centre", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OPEC#Lapsed_members", "https://www.zawya.com/en/business/energy/dewa-chinese-companies-discuss-cooperation-in-energy-infrastructure-sectors-tm5rfs8n", "https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/7120.htm", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-and-u-a-e-clash-over-oil-yemen-as-rift-grows-ff286ff9", "https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/angola-says-it-is-leaving-opec-angop-news-agency-2023-12-21/", "https://thedeepdive.ca/oil-prices-continue-to-slide-as-supply-outstrips-demand/"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

1.0

True

2023-01-07

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2612

<p>While Hong Kong lifted its compulsory quarantine requirement for travelers outside of China in September 2022, such requirements remain for travelers to the PRC mainland (<a href="https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/202209/24/P2022092400048.htm" target="_blank">Government of Hong Kong</a>, <a href="https://china.usembassy-china.org.cn/covid-19-information" target="_blank">US Embassy in China</a>, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-10-20/china-considers-cutting-covid-quarantine-for-visitors-bloomberg-news" target="_blank">US News &amp; World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/china-travel-covid-19/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>). For the purposes of this question, "outside of China" means anywhere other than the Chinese mainland, Hong Kong, Macao, or Taiwan. The general removal of the requirements with exceptions would count so long as travel from at least six G7 nations is permitted without quarantine (<a href="https://www.international.gc.ca/world-monde/international_relations-relations_internationales/g7/index.aspx?lang=eng" target="_blank">Canada G7</a>). An announcement that the PRC will cease to require travelers from outside of China to quarantine at some future date after 30 June 2023 would not count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2023-01-08

Before 1 July 2023, will the People's Republic of China (PRC) cease to require travelers from outside of China to quarantine?

2022-11-04

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0.9506], ["2023-01-07", 0.9506]]

["https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3200823/shanghai-disneyland-reopen-after-25-day-hiatus-despite-rising-covid-19-cases-and-controls-city", "https://www.ft.com/content/eb8530d3-414f-4e65-8ce5-09fba3dbee14", "https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-axes-travel-tracking-app-latest-easing-covid-curbs-2022-12-13/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/26/world/asia/china-covid-quarantine-travelers.html", "https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2022/10/16/china-s-zero-covid-policy-a-symbol-of-xi-jinping-s-rule_6000520_4.html", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12113/when-will-china-end-covid-zero/", "https://www.china-briefing.com/news/china-coronavirus-updates-latest-developments-business-advisory-part-2/#table", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/23/china-may-have-passed-the-point-of-no-return-as-covid-infections-soar.html", "https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/26/business/china-travel-covid-quarantine/index.html", "https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-make-substantial-changes-covid-policy-soon-former-govt-expert-2022-11-04/", "https://www.china-briefing.com/news/china-travel-restrictions-2021-2022-an-explainer-updated/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-cut-quarantine-overseas-travelers-next-month-bloomberg-news-2022-12-22/", "https://www.google.com/search?q=vestige+define", "https://unherd.com/thepost/china-abandons-one-size-fits-all-covid-policy/", "https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/2466844/china-to-cut-quarantine-for-overseas-travellers", "https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3204601/china-reopen-borders-drop-covid-quarantine-january-8", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/22/world/asia/china-zero-covid.html", "https://www.ft.com/content/f724e3ad-8cae-4f00-8ad2-aa8a5c035fe9", "https://twitter.com/HuXijin_GT/status/1598633536017559554", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/05/covid-is-weakening-china-state-media-claims-as-major-cities-lift-lockdowns", "https://twitter.com/ptr12343/status/1598348949211021313"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

1.0

True

2020-12-31

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1597

<p>Hungary's parliament passed emergency measures to allow the government to rule by decree during the coronavirus pandemic, a move being criticized by many as authoritarian (<a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/what-should-the-eu-do-about-hungary-coronavirus-viktor-orban/" target="_blank">Politico.eu</a>, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/04/europe-hungary-viktor-orban-coronavirus-covid19-democracy/609313/" target="_blank">The Atlantic</a>). Hungary is currently facing Article 7 proceedings, which enables the Council of the European Union to determine whether a member state's actions risk a serious breach of the values of the Treaty of the European Union (<a href="https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=celex%3A12012M007" target="_blank">Europa.eu</a>, <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/eu-parliament-votes-to-trigger-article-7-sanctions-procedure-against-hungary/a-45459720" target="_blank">Deutsche Welle</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/graphic-what-is-article-7-the-eus-nuclear-option/" target="_blank">Politico.eu</a>).</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;or&nbsp;</span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,&nbsp;<a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>

2021-01-01

Will the Council of the European Union make an Article 7.1 determination against Hungary before 31 December 2020?

2020-04-17

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["2020-12-27", 0.0], ["2020-12-28", 0.0], ["2020-12-30", 0.0], ["2020-12-31", 0.0], ["2020-12-31", 0.0]]

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binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2023-01-08

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2133

<p>Abu Dhabi and Dubai, the two largest of the emirates that make up the UAE, have considered bans on various single-use plastic products, including bags (<a href="https://gulfbusiness.com/how-data-is-quantifying-the-impact-of-plastic-on-the-environment/" target="_blank">Gulf Business</a>, <a href="https://www.arabianbusiness.com/culture-society/442488-abu-dhabi-to-ban-single-use-plastic-bags-by-2021" target="_blank">Arabian Business</a>, <a href="https://www.euronews.com/next/2020/01/24/dubai-acts-to-stem-the-tide-of-single-use-plastic" target="_blank">Euronews</a>). A ban imposed either by the UAE government or all seven individual emirate governments would count. The ban must take effect during the question's open period to count. A ban with limited exceptions (e.g., medical uses) would count.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2023-01-08

Will single-use plastic bags be banned in all of the UAE before 8 January 2023?

2021-09-24

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["https://www.khaleejtimes.com/search?q=plastic+bag", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1364277", "https://whatson.ae/2020/03/abu-dhabi-to-ban-all-single-use-plastic-bags-by-2021/", "https://gulfbusiness.com/sharjah-to-ban-single-use-plastic-bags-from-january-1-2024/", "https://www.khaleejtimes.com/environment/uae-another-emirate-to-ban-single-use-plastic-bags?amp=1", "https://www.ghadan.abudhabi/en/home/#faq-1369", "https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/dubai-set-to-ban-single-use-plastic-bags-in-two-years", "https://www.arabianbusiness.com/culture-society/sharjah-joins-abu-dhabi-and-dubai-in-banning-single-use-plastic-bags", "https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/10/canada-bans-single-use-plastics/", "https://www.khaleejtimes.com/environment/abu-dhabi-to-ban-single-use-plastics-from-june", "https://gulfbusiness.com/dubai-to-impose-tariff-on-single-use-plastic-bags-from-july-1/", "https://www.timeoutabudhabi.com/news/449805-waitrose-increases-price-of-single-use-plastic-bags-in-all-uae-stores-to-reduce-waste", "https://english.alarabiya.net/News/gulf/2022/04/06/Abu-Dhabi-to-ban-single-use-plastic-bags-from-June", "https://www.khaleejtimes.com/environment/uae-plastic-bags-to-be-banned-in-ajman-from-2023?amp=1", "https://gulfbusiness.com/you-now-need-to-pay-for-single-use-plastic-bags-in-dubai/"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2024-01-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2706

<p>The last federal shutdown occurred in December 2018 to January 2019, and current appropriations would expire on 30 September 2023 (<a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R41759" target="_blank">Congressional Research Service</a>, <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-signs-17t-government-spending-bill-ensuring-funding/story?id=95934378" target="_blank">ABC News</a>, <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/2617/text?r=7&amp;s=5" target="_blank">H.R.2617</a>). For the purposes of this question, a "shutdown of the US federal government" would mean a ceasing of operations due to a lack of funding appropriation. A partial shutdown would count (<a href="https://www.crfb.org/papers/qa-everything-you-should-know-about-government-shutdowns" target="_blank">Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2024-01-01

Will there be a shutdown of the US federal government in 2023?

2023-01-13

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["https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/14/us/politics/government-shutdown-vote-mike-johnson.html", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/13/politics/mike-johnson-government-funding-what-matters/index.html", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/shutdown-deadline-poses-test-us-congress-is-compromise-possible-2023-11-06/", "https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4308932-burchett-accuses-mccarthy-of-elbowing-him-chases-him-down-capitol-hallway/", "https://text.npr.org/1211830728", "https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/14/house-passes-bill-to-avoid-government-shutdown-senate-to-vote-next.html", "https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2023/11/14/congress/house-dems-ready-to-bail-out-gop-again-00127034", "https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4296547-senate-eyes-huge-maxi-bus-to-address-year-end-spending-crunch/", "https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/the-new-speaker-has-3-ideas-to-avert-a-government-shutdown-2-make-a-stoppage-more-likely-110450422.html?guccounter=1&amp;guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmluZy5jb20v&amp;guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAFqsgz6BVB507nkiUJh_M8cc9G-_60roDbQuMjQDbh_guVzcK54QzaQVsVM30IO-Y24juTn18jb9L6XFq8SEIHJjHdjv9YDiA0Ri6P33J0tTMow5_nzo1z_LwmbiXtyqZbNmNHtIo8jxEyU_oSURkxP2dCDDH9pB7k9uNNiGivw", "https://www.pgpf.org/blog/2023/10/what-is-a-continuing-resolution", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/mcconnell-johnson-leadership-faces-first-major-hurdle-this-week-with-continuing-resolution-fight/ar-AA1jR0LT", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/the-gop-plan-to-avoid-a-government-shutdown-in-5-days-could-actually-help-student-loan-companies-struggling-to-manage-repayment/ar-AA1jS9Pe?ocid=msedgntp&amp;cvid=f1348cec9e7e491195aa63e4314c47ce&amp;ei=41", "https://us.cnn.com/2023/11/09/politics/house-republicans-government-funding/index.html", "https://www.npr.org/2023/11/03/1210386678/house-approves-military-aid-israel#:~:text=Hourly%20News-,House%20approves%20aid%20package%20for%20Israel%2C%20but%20not%20for%20Ukraine,Ukraine%20as%20it%20fights%20Russia", "https://www.npr.org/2023/11/17/1213683400/biden-signs-temporary-spending-bill-that-heads-off-a-government-shutdown", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/11/14/government-shutdown-updates/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/top-us-senate-democrat-schumer-shows-tentative-support-republican-short-term-2023-11-13/", "https://www.history.com/news/us-government-shutdowns-facts", "https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/12/government-shutdown-congress-plan-mike-johnson-00126730", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/new-us-house-speaker-tries-muster-his-republicans-avert-government-shutdown-2023-11-13/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/17/us/politics/biden-signs-spending-bill-shutdown.html", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/house-passes-a-stopgap-bill-to-avert-a-government-shutdown/ar-AA1jVn2z?ocid=msedgntp&amp;cvid=03130f5cd3144d9b8212e45fc0d97fb7&amp;ei=8", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/09/us/politics/house-republicans-shutdown-deadline.html", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senate-takes-up-bill-avert-partial-government-shutdown-2023-11-15/", "https://rollcall.com/2023/11/14/house-passes-two-tiered-stopgap-bill-to-avert-shutdown/"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2022-04-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2131

<p>The six-month EXPO 2020, initially delayed by the COVID-19 pandemic, is scheduled for 1 October 2021 through 31 March 2022 (<a href="https://www.expo2020dubai.com/" target="_blank">EXPO2020</a>, <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/middle-easts-first-expo-open-110725927.html" target="_blank">Yahoo</a>, <a href="https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/expo-2020/2021/09/19/superstars-to-open-expo-2020-dubai-with-big-bang/" target="_blank">The National</a>). Virtual visits would not count. The question will be suspended on 31 March 2022 and the outcome determined using final data when available.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>

2022-04-04

Will Dubai's EXPO 2020 attract 25 million visits?

2021-09-24

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["https://www.africa.com/dine-by-night-free-entry-to-expo-2020-dubai/", "https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/expo-2020/2022/03/15/expo-2020-dubai-almost-16m-visits-in-one-week-as-numbers-reach-19m/", "https://gulfnews.com/expo-2020/expo-2020-dubai-crosses-half-way-mark-with-almost-9-million-visits-1.84745727", "https://www.brecorder.com/news/amp/40160854", "https://www.breakingtravelnews.com/news/article/expo-2020-welcomes-11-million-guests-to-date/", "https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/expo-2020/2022/03/29/expo-2020-dubai-attracts-1-million-visits-in-three-days-with-25-million-target-in-sight/", "https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/expo-2020/2022/03/08/expo-2020-visitor-numbers-jump-by-1-million-to-cross-17-million-visits/", "https://gulfbusiness.com/expo-2020-dubai-records-close-to-11-million-visits-as-of-january-24/", "https://www.khaleejtimes.com/expo/expo-2020-dubai-visit-numbers-cross-7-million-mark-as-on-december-20?amp=1", "https://english.alarabiya.net/News/gulf/2021/11/09/Expo-2020-Dubai-Visitor-numbers-approach-three-million-", "https://www.khaleejtimes.com/expo/expo-2020-dubai-over-8-million-visits-as-event-boosts-covid-19-safety-measures", "https://www.msn.com/en-ae/money/news/expo-2020-dubai-receives-close-to-15-million-visitors-as-of-february-21/ar-AAU9yij?;ctype=news++&amp;amp%252525253Bappid=hwbrowser", "https://gulfnews.com/amp/opinion/editorials/with-strict-safety-measures-expo-enjoys-unprecedented-numbers-1.84640033", "https://www.breakingtravelnews.com/news/article/expo-2020-welcomes-millions-of-guest-in-first-six-weeks/", "https://amp.france24.com/en/live-news/20211222-dubai-expo-sushi-restaurant-closes-after-staff-catch-covid", "https://beta.ctvnews.ca/national/world/2021/12/28/1_5720949.html", "https://www.themeparkinsider.com/flume/202112/8657/", "https://www.khaleejtimes.com/expo/more-than-one-million-visits-in-one-week-expo-2020-dubai-visits-soar-to-13-5-million", "https://gulfnews.com/amp/expo-2020/news/wams-expo-2020-dubai-related-content-surpasses-9-billion-views-report-1.1639833875383", "https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/expo-2020/2022/02/01/expo-2020-dubai-visitor-numbers-exceed-11-million-as-school-visits-resume/", "https://gulfnews.com/amp/expo-2020/expo-2020-dubai-one-day-ticket-is-just-dh10-on-sunday-1.84966738", "https://www.khaleejtimes.com/expo/expo-2020-dubai-celebrates-milestone-20-million-visits", "https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/uae-at-50/2021/12/02/crowds-flock-to-expo-2020-dubai-for-national-day-extravaganza/", "https://www.timeoutabudhabi.com/news/alicia-keys-expo-2020-dubai", "https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/expo-2020/2021/11/15/expo-2020-dubai-records-more-than-35-million-visits-in-first-six-weeks/"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2022-12-07

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2622

<p>Left-wing President José Pedro Castillo Terrones won a close election in 2021 and has faced various challenges while in office (<a href="https://apnews.com/article/latin-america-venezuela-peru-caribbean-4f1b9a235f21ebbbd80ff3522fe2ef98" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-10-11/peru-prosecutors-increase-pressure-on-president-as-they-order-allies-detained" target="_blank">US News &amp; World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/peru-protesters-seek-president-s-removal-/6822283.html" target="_blank">Voice of America</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2022-12-07

Will Pedro Castillo cease to be the president of the Peru before 1 January 2024?

2022-11-11

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["https://perureports.com/thousands-march-in-peru-against-president-pedro-castillo/9810/", "https://www.statista.com/statistics/1277779/approval-rate-peruvian-president-castillo/"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

1.0

True

2022-01-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2070

<p>Haiti's presidential election is currently planned for 26 September 2021, along with legislative elections and a constitutional referendum (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/haiti-moves-constitutional-referendum-september-2021-06-29/" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). The assassination of President Jovenel Moïse on 7 July 2021 has called the timeline into question, though some officials have publicly committed to keeping the date (<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/07/americas/haiti-explainer-jovenel-moise-assassination-cmd-intl/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/07/10/world/jovenel-moise-assassinated#haiti-elections" target="_blank">NY Times</a>). If no candidate receives a majority in the first round, a runoff will be held about two months later in November (<a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/07/1095542" target="_blank">UN</a>). If there is a second round, the question would close as of the date the second round of voting is held.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.5;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 16 August 2021</span>: If a second round must be held to determine a winner and the second round is not held before 1 January 2022, then the question would close "no.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>

2022-01-01

Will Haiti hold a presidential election before 1 January 2022?

2021-07-16

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["https://www.npr.org/2021/09/14/1037012177/haiti-prosecutor-asks-judge-charge-prime-minister-moise-assassination", "https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/haiti/article255199321.html", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/08/18/haiti-earthquake-disaster-leaders-needed/", "https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/white-house/article253553829.html", "https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/15/world/haiti-earthquake-news-sunday/index.html", "https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210820-quake-hit-haiti-s-pm-vows-elections-soon-as-possible", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/22/world/americas/haiti-earthquake-aid.html", "https://www.yourbasin.com/news/haiti-pm-elections-referendum-to-be-held-next-year/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1338929", "https://reut.rs/3EWsTpH", "https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-another-active-atlantic-hurricane-season", "https://reliefweb.int/report/haiti/thousands-stranded-and-exposed-insecurity-worsens-port-au-prince", "https://apnews.com/article/elections-caribbean-port-au-prince-haiti-constitutions-f8ca54a40c53bd21057f34952b9508ed", "https://insightcrime.org/news/haitis-neighbors-grow-concerned-spread-gang-governance/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/10/11/haiti-elections-constitution-ariel-henry-moise-vision-unity/", "https://www.lapresse.ca/international/caraibes/2021-08-11/haiti/les-elections-de-nouveau-reportees.php", "https://reut.rs/3k2pAn1", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1338774", "https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/haiti-faces-fresh-instability-pm-scrutiny-80039222", "https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/10/1102062", "https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/haiti-pm-elections-referendum-held-year-80289104", "https://news.yahoo.com/name-barbecue-ready-plunge-haiti-084728617.html", "https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/as-haiti-reels-from-earthquake-and-deals-with-discord-leader-expects-election-delay/", "https://www.npr.org/2021/11/01/1051215645/fuel-shortages-are-bringing-haiti-to-a-halt", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/9/11/haiti-pm-rejects-diversionary-tactics-in-moise-killing-probe"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2022-02-24

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2184

<p>Reports in the fall of 2021 indicated a build-up of Russian forces near the border of Ukraine amid increased tensions with the West (<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2021/11/01/satellite-russia-ukraine-military-518337" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/putin-ukrain-military-threat/31523260.html" target="_blank">REF/RL</a>). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results at least three fatalities (total, not each) for the national military forces and/or law enforcement of either side.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 8 November 2021</span>: Cyberattacks would not count.</p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 11 January 2022</span>: The fatalities must be the result of the same lethal confrontation to count.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>

2022-02-24

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and/or law enforcement of Russia and Ukraine resulting in at least three fatalities before 15 September 2022?

2021-11-04

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["https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1491521222437445633", "https://spectatorworld.com/topic/springtime-for-liberal-interventionists/", "https://www.osce.org/special-monitoring-mission-to-ukraine/512272", "https://www.osce.org/files/2022-02-18%20Daily%20Report_ENG.pdf", "https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-24-22-intl/h_617860a16cf939493501cb12137bf38b", "https://www.dw.com/en/biden-is-convinced-putin-has-decided-to-invade-ukraine/a-60838016", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1397893", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2HUCkUDLz3Q", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/28/vladimir-putin-declares-all-russian-military-deaths-state-secrets", "https://www.levada.ru/en/", "https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1495742444167643144?s=21", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/breakaway-regions-in-ukraine-issue-call-up-orders-as-russia-tests-missiles-11645277438", "https://www.osce.org/special-monitoring-mission-to-ukraine/512023", "https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/02/24/Ukraine-says-at-least-seven-killed-and-nine-wounded-by-Russian-shelling", "https://tass.com/world/1403617", "https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/15/world/russia-ukraine-news", "https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/02/15/russia-offers-an-olive-branch-but-still-wields-the-sword", "https://www.rt.com/russia/550119-moscow-claims-five-ukrainian-soldiers-killed/", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/31/poll-russia-ukraine-invasion-crisis-biden-response/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/01/world/europe/putin-russia-ukraine.html", "https://www.osce.org/special-monitoring-mission-to-ukraine/", "https://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/reports", "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/#1570", "https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/ukraine-soldier-killed-in-clashes-near-russia-border-2777362", "https://www.rt.com/russia/550123-ukraine-responds-claim-russia-soldiers-killed/"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

1.0

True

2021-12-30

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2045

<p>The outcome will be determined using the closing price per barrel as reported by Bloomberg (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CO1:COM" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>

2022-01-02

Will the closing price of Brent crude oil be higher than $70.00 per barrel on 30 December 2021?

2021-06-17

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["https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=50396", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002%E2%80%932004_SARS_outbreak#Hong_Kong", "https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price", "https://www.marketwatch.com/story/to-pause-or-not-to-pause-oil-output-increases-is-the-question-opec-faces-as-it-meets-wednesday-11630093332", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/03/health/coronavirus-omicron-vaccines-contagiousness.html", "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/03/iran-nuclear-deal-talks-are-stuck-after-substantial-progress-negotiator-says.html", "https://archive.is/tqonU", "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&amp;s=RBRTE&amp;f=M", "https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CO1:COM", "https://investors.pxd.com/static-files/e33ef32a-6588-4a7d-aad9-9e5ba73c5a49", "https://knoema.com/infographics/yxptpab/crude-oil-price-forecast-2021-2022-and-long-term-to-2050", "https://www.statista.com/statistics/409404/forecast-for-uk-brent-crude-oil-prices/", "https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/11/23/president-biden-announces-release-from-the-strategic-petroleum-reserve-as-part-of-ongoing-efforts-to-lower-prices-and-address-lack-of-supply-around-the-world/", "https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil", "https://www.eia.gov/analysis/#:~:text=Price%20summary%20%28historical%20and%20forecast%29%20%20%20,%20%203.23%20%204%20more%20rows%20", "https://www.reuters.com/business/exclusive-us-has-reached-out-china-about-cutting-oil-imports-iran-officials-say-2021-09-28/", "https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/determining-oil-prices.asp", "https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/46", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1359154", "https://s24.q4cdn.com/589393778/files/doc_financials/2021/q2/EOG_0821.pdf", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-27/europe-s-energy-crisis-is-about-to-go-global-as-gas-prices-soar?sref=x7nYEkiY", "https://www.rigzone.com/news/usa_eia_releases_new_oil_price_forecast-09-sep-2021-166398-article/", "https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/9423/production/_121832973_microsoftteams-image.png", "https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/12/how-bad-omicron-variant/620870/", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/crazy-bets-on-200-oil-invade-the-options-market-11634463002"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

1.0

True

2021-06-03

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1855

<p>The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/new-technological-behaviours-will-outlast-the-pandemic" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487" target="_blank">BBC</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 26 November 2020, the ONS reported that 30% of working adults worked from home exclusively (<a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/26november2020" target="_blank">ONS</a>, see Figure 1 under Section 4). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 3 June 2021.</p><p>The Superforecaster version of this question is at <a href="https://goodjudgment.io/economist/" target="_blank">The Economist dashboard</a>.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">&nbsp;or&nbsp;</span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,&nbsp;<a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>.&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.4;"><span style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 0);">NOTE 17 May 2021</span>: ONS has rearranged its relevant pages for this question. As of now, you may find the pertinent data in the following links: </p><p style="line-height:1.4;">Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators (reports out Thursdays): https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/output/bulletins/economicactivityandsocialchangeintheukrealtimeindicators/previousReleases</p><p style="line-height:1.4;">Coronavirus and the social impacts on Great Britain (reports out Fridays): https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandwellbeing/bulletins/coronavirusandthesocialimpactsongreatbritain/14may2021</p><p style="line-height:1.4;">Coronavirus and the social impacts on Great Britain (data file download): https://www.ons.gov.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2021-06-04

Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who "worked from home exclusively" fell below 20%?

2020-12-04

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["https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/articles/coronavirusandselfemploymentintheuk/2020-04-24", "https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/15april2021", "https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/is-working-from-home-here-to-stay-", "https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-52530518", "https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandwellbeing/bulletins/coronavirusandthesocialimpactsongreatbritain/30april2021", "https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56972207", "https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/6may2021", "https://iea.org.uk/publications/pass-the-remote/", "https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/22april2021", "https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/business/businessservices/bulletins/businessinsightsandimpactontheukeconomy/latest", "https://www.accountancydaily.co/uk-employees-favour-mix-home-and-office-working", "https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandwellbeing/datasets/coronavirusandthesocialimpactsongreatbritaindata", "https://pandemicnavigator.oliverwyman.com/forecast?mode=country&amp;region=United%20Kingdom&amp;panel=baseline&amp;range_baseline=-1&amp;range_mortality=-1&amp;range_causal=-1", "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/output/bulletins/economicactivityandsocialchangeintheukrealtimeindicators/13may2021#social-impact-of-the-coronavirus", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-26/almost-half-of-u-k-office-workers-are-back-at-their-desks?cmpid=BBD042621_CEU&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_term=210426&amp;utm_campaign=closeeurope&amp;sref=1mjpCW3y", "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/output/bulletins/economicactivityandsocialchangeintheukrealtimeindicators/20may2021", "https://www.publictechnology.net/articles/news/two-thirds-workers-did-not-work-home-all-2020-ons-data-finds", "https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/labourproductivity/articles/homeworkinghoursrewardsandopportunitiesintheuk2011to2020/2021-04-19", "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/output/bulletins/economicactivityandsocialchangeintheukrealtimeindicators/13may2021", "https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/29april2021", "https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/latest", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-04/goldman-readies-its-u-s-workforce-for-return-to-offices-in-june?sref=i2Bc5OtW", "https://www.gov.uk/government/news/confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-variants-identified-in-uk", "https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandwellbeing/bulletins/coronavirusandthesocialimpactsongreatbritain/latest", "https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2022-10-08

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2344

<p>As the war in Ukraine continues, the US and others have voiced concerns over China possibly providing support for Russia's war effort (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-60732486" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/explainer-plausible-chinese-military-aid-russia-83451560" target="_blank">ABC News</a>). For the purposes of this question, "lethal aid" means any weapon, ammunition, or other equipment or material that is designed to inflict serious bodily injury or death (<a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/2557#:~:text=(d)" target="_blank">Cornell - 10 USC §2557</a>, effectively the inverse of 10 USC §2557(d)(1)(B)). Examples of lethal aid include bullets, warplanes, missiles, and armed drones, but would not include surveillance equipment, body armor, medical supplies, intelligence, etc. An accusation need not explicitly characterize aid as "lethal aid" to count so long as the accusation includes enough detail to ascertain that the aid given was lethal, but the accusation must assert that the lethal aid was provided for use by Russia in Ukraine. Recent examples of an accusation of lethal aid being provided include Russia and China arming the military junta in Myanmar and Turkey providing armed drones to Ethiopia (<a href="https://www.dw.com/en/china-russia-arming-myanmar-junta-un-expert-says/a-60868089" target="_blank">Deutsche Welle</a>, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-12-22/exclusive-u-s-concerned-over-turkeys-drone-sales-to-conflict-hit-ethiopia" target="_blank">US News &amp; World Report</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2022-10-12

Between 8 April 2022 and 8 October 2022, will NATO or a NATO member state publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of having provided lethal aid to Russia after 24 February 2022 for use in Ukraine?

2022-04-08

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["https://www.barrons.com/amp/articles/india-is-reluctant-to-condemn-russia-its-history-with-china-looms-large-51652132357?utm_source=twtw&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=TWTW%202022May13&amp;utm_term=TWTW%20and%20All%20Staff%20as%20of%207-9-20", "https://tpyxa.net/2022/08/04/at-one-of-the-stations-in-the-rostov-region-chinese-military-equipment-was-spotted/", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/05/11/u-k-china-views-russias-war-as-bad-for-business/", "https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3177093/china-will-boost-ties-russia-military-tech-energy-and-space", "https://time.com/5359504/asia-earthquake-tsunami-history/", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-sends-delegation-of-troops-and-tanks-to-russia-here-s-why/ar-AAZZpIS", "https://www.army-technology.com/comment/artillery-wars-ukrainian-donbas/", "http://www.fas.org/", "https://www.history.com/shows/ancient-aliens", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/05/china-russia-war-ukraine/", "https://www.cfr.org/article/xi-jinping-consolidate-power-china-twentieth-communist-party-congress", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us-accuses-chinese-companies-supporting-russias-military-2022-06-28/", "https://www.dw.com/en/xi-jinping-trip-turns-focus-on-chinas-sway-in-russias-backyard/a-63093571", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKwliOyAPRs", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-13/xi-putin-building-more-just-world-order-top-china-envoy-says", "https://www.ft.com/content/a4e8de3b-a2aa-4f10-a820-a910274175a8", "https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/12/china/russia-ukraine-retreat-china-support-intl-hnk/index.html", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/15/china-western-financial-power-ukraine/", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/07/china-russia-putin-ukraine-war-lessons-taiwan/", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/18/china-russia-ukraine-taiwan-war/", "https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2022-05-02/chinas-ukraine-conundrum", "https://lite.cnn.com/en/article/h_4afdca5d4143ae252900aa8f087c071a", "https://www.uscc.gov/research/chinas-position-russias-invasion-ukraine", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/04/beijing-orders-stress-test-as-fears-of-russia-style-sanctions-mount"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2023-10-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2787

<p>As Russia's war in Ukraine continues, the government of Moldova fears that Russia may attempt a coup in the country (<a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-02-27/kremlin-says-it-is-concerned-by-situation-in-breakaway-moldovan-region" target="_blank">US News &amp; World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/moldova-president-maia-sandu-russia-attack/" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-02-21/putin-cancels-decree-underpinning-moldovas-sovereignty-in-separatist-conflict" target="_blank">US News &amp; World Report</a>). For the purposes of this question, "extraconstitutional events" would be a change in the government by means not authorized by the Moldovan constitution (e.g., a coup) (<a href="https://www.constcourt.md/public/files/file/Actele%20Curtii/acte_en/MDA_Constitution_EN.pdf" target="_blank">Constitution of the Republic of Moldova</a>). For example, the assassination of a leader alone would not count, but the installation of a successor not in accordance with the constitution would count. The fleeing of the constitutional government into exile would count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2023-10-01

Will Moldova have a change in its constitutional order by way of extraconstitutional events before 1 October 2023?

2023-03-07

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["https://euobserver.com/world/156884", "https://www.euronews.com/2023/05/05/eu-gives-extra-40-million-loan-to-moldova", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_coups_and_coup_attempts", "https://www.rferl.org/a/moldova-tauber-shor-official-arrested-airport/32386939.html", "https://f24.my/9OqMterview", "https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/03/10/politics/us-russia-moldova-intelligence/index.html", "https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=web&amp;cd=&amp;ved=2ahUKEwiTqrGl9raAAxVgFjQIHRuVDXYQFnoECBQQAQ&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.hybridcoe.fi%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2023%2F04%2F20230413-Hybrid-CoE-Working_Paper-23-Moldova-WEB.pdf&amp;usg=AOvVaw02LqNOZ1gkywKo6nIvged0&amp;opi=89978449", "https://www.europeansanctions.com/2023/05/eu-adopts-moldova-sanctions-framework/", "https://apnews.com/article/moldova-protests-russia-unrest-plot-24b55d877401cf3d2122c21fe17ef1da", "https://www.ft.com/content/7e1d2926-7047-4033-a4d3-3ca0469fb53f", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/twenty-two-russian-diplomats-leave-moldova-relations-slide-2023-08-14/", "http://www.ft.com/"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2022-10-25

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2571

<p>Since becoming the UK prime minister in early September 2022, Liz Truss is facing a number of challenges, including blowback from an economic plan and political tensions in Northern Ireland (<a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/09/06/1121266992/liz-truss-prime-minister-queen-elizabeth" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/uk-pm-liz-truss-scraps-tax-cut-rich-market-chaos-pound-crashing-rcna50407" target="_blank">NBC News</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-63130311" target="_blank">BBC</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2022-10-25

Before 1 April 2023, will Liz Truss cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?

2022-10-04

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["https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/oct/18/the-ghost-pm-what-the-papers-say-about-liz-trusss-hold-on-power", "https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1582753580746174465", "https://www.ft.com/content/08908266-cc47-4cda-b8d4-97a8ac433a6d", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/20/uk-prime-minister-liz-truss-resigns-after-failed-budget-and-market-turmoil.html", "https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-63325779", "https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/europa/truss-ruecktritt-grossbritannien-entschuldigung-interview-101.html", "https://twitter.com/DavidGHFrost/status/1582847883082022912", "https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/europa/truss-unterhaus-grossbritannien-103.html", "https://news.sky.com/story/liz-truss-to-resign-as-prime-minister-sky-news-understands-12723236", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/16/liz-truss-lost-authority-tory-party-prime-minister-conservative-mps-kwasi-kwarteng", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-19/truss-s-ailing-government-sinks-to-new-low-in-commons-vote-chaos", "https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/prime-minister-liz-trusss-statement-in-downing-street-20-october-2022", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/19/uk-liz-truss-pmqs-inflation/", "https://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-politics-63309400", "https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-the-papers-63280448", "https://abcnews.go.com/International/uk-prime-minister-liz-truss-lost-authority-govern/story?id=91670396", "https://www.prismatist.com/sacred-cow-makes-the-best-hamburger", "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63325779", "https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/17/politics-latest-news-jeremy-hunt-budget-liz-truss/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/18/opinion/liz-truss-uk-hunt.html?campaign_id=2&amp;emc=edit_th_20221019&amp;instance_id=75023&amp;nl=todaysheadlines&amp;regi_id=77825025&amp;segment_id=110400&amp;user_id=dc6933c94fc82416d25dd297622374d1", "https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/25/rishi-sunak-to-become-pm-after-meeting-the-king-how-the-day-will-unfold", "https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/10/18/most-tory-members-say-liz-truss-should-resign", "https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-63280682", "https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1582806310457729025", "https://www.cnn.com/uk/live-news/liz-truss-prime-minister-intl-gbr/index.html"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

1.0

True

2023-12-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2818

<p>The People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has been consistently sending military aircraft into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) with growing numbers of aircraft, though not its national airspace (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/02/taiwan-reports-large-chinese-incursion-into-its-air-defense-zone.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/01/chinas-violations-suggest-taiwan-decapitation-rehearsal-00054568" target="_blank">Politico</a>). For the purposes of this question, "territorial waters" means the sea within 12 nautical miles of the shore of the main island of Taiwan. Military drones would count, but balloons would not count.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2023-12-01

Will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of flying a military aircraft over the territory of and/or the territorial waters surrounding the main island of Taiwan without its permission before 1 December 2023?

2023-03-30

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["https://www.brookings.edu/events/what-does-the-future-hold-for-taiwan/", "https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/chinese-warship-cuts-off-us-navy-ship-marking/story?id=99817905", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Taiwan_Strait_Crisis", "https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/17/china/china-navy-warships-around-taiwan-intl-hnk-ml/index.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/world/asia/taiwan-china-maps.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/28/chinese-tb-001-combat-drone-flies-around-taiwan-says-islands-military", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/20/taiwans-kmt-hopes-for-elections-boost-after-china-trip", "https://news.usni.org/2023/04/06/china-deploys-aircraft-carrier-strike-group-off-taiwans-east-coast", "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-sends-carrier-group-off-taiwan-coast-ahead-us-meeting-2023-04-05/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e8cdQBblMTk", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/08/taiwan-says-37-chinese-military-aircraft-entered-its-air-defence-zone", "https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4683248", "https://insiderpaper.com/china-says-taiwan-military-drills-successfully-completed/", "https://defencesecurityasia.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/20210327_003748-1024x783.jpg", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/07/china/china-taiwan-military-exercises-hnk-intl-ml/index.html", "https://us.cnn.com/2023/04/11/politics/taiwan-foreign-minister-interview/index.html", "https://apnews.com/article/china-us-defense-taiwan-beijing-military-talks-adaf8558461bc3a74677efb4a2231d8a", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/18/world/asia/china-taiwan-military-planes.html#:~:text=China%20has%20ramped%20up%20military,important%20political%20and%20security%20partner", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/12/taiwan-president-defends-us-trip-as-island-set-to-begin-its-own-military-drills"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2021-10-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1958

<p>A Reddit-fueled "short squeeze" on shares of Gamestop and other companies led to online trading firm Robinhood to impose trading limits on various stocks in late January (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/30/gamestop-reddit-and-robinhood-a-full-recap-of-the-historic-retail-trading-mania-on-wall-street.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhood-backlash-heres-what-you-should-know-about-the-gamestop-stock-controversy/" target="_blank">CNET</a>). Many Robinhood customers were angered by the move, and Congress has held hearings on the circumstances surrounding the trading limits (<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/map-reveals-robinhood-twitter-wallstreetbets-users-furious-gamestop-gme-amc-2021-1" target="_blank">Business Insider</a>, <a href="https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhoods-role-in-gamestop-stock-spike-scrutinized-by-congress/" target="_blank">CNET</a>). A Wells notice "is a letter sent by a securities regulator to a prospective respondent, notifying him of the substance of charges that the regulator intends to bring against the respondent, and affording the respondent with the opportunity to submit a written statement to the ultimate decision maker" (<a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/wells_notice" target="_blank">Cornell</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">&nbsp;or&nbsp;</span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,&nbsp;<a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>.&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>

2021-10-01

Will Robinhood receive a Wells notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before 1 October 2021 related to trading limits imposed on 28 January 2021?

2021-03-05

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["https://www.sec.gov/litigation/admin/2020/33-10906.pdf", "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/27/michael-burry-says-he-was-subpoenaed-by-the-sec-as-gamestop-saga-drags-on.html", "https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/gary-gensler-sec-chairman/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archegos_Capital_Management", "https://nysba.org/what-is-the-sec-going-to-do-about-gamestop/", "http://www.wlrk.com/webdocs/wlrknew/AttorneyPubs/WLRK.25580.17.pdf", "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/robinhood-finra-70-million-fine/", "https://techcrunch.com/2021/01/28/the-somewhat-boring-reason-it-appears-that-robinhood-yanked-trading-on-some-securities/"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2023-01-26

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2621

<p>Ukrainian forces are facing heavy fire from Russian troops attempting to capture the city of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region (<a href="https://www.euronews.com/2022/11/06/russian-forces-pound-donetsk-with-greatest-brutality-ukrainian-authorities-say" target="_blank">EuroNews</a>, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-11-04/ukrainian-troops-fire-on-russians-with-captured-weapons-near-key-city" target="_blank">US News &amp; World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63261600" target="_blank">BBC</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (<a href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375" target="_blank">ISW</a>). The address of the building (Tsentr Nadannya Administratyvnykh Posluh Mista Bakhmut) is Myru St, 44, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84500, to which you can zoom on the interactive map by clicking the search button on the upper left of the screen and entering the address. The location identified by the interactive map will be used for resolution. For the purposes of this question, "Claimed Russian Control" would not count as ceasing to be under Ukrainian control, but "Assessed Russian Advance" would count as ceasing to be under Ukrainian control.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2023-01-26

Will the location of the administrative services building in Bakhmut, Ukraine, cease to be under Ukrainian control before 26 January 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War?

2022-11-11

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["https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Suz3jeBQHoI", "https://www.rferl.org/a/inside-ukraines-artyomsalt-salt-mine/29993212.html", "https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-12-2023", "https://datastudio.google.com/reporting/dfbcec47-7b01-400e-ab21-de8eb98c8f3a/page/p_nqzk2rykuc?s=mn2XbXLVbYE", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-officials-advise-ukraine-wait-offensive-official-says-2023-01-20/", "https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-bakhmut-wagner-prigozhin-surrounded-1772032", "https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-11-2023", "https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1616562438299869184?s=46&amp;t=V1jYJUnvex2up7_gFFtJKA", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=quBRzASo-Ug", "https://liveuamap.com/", "https://militaryland.net/maps/russian-invasion/bakhmut-front/", "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375", "https://www.ft.com/content/fe6212f5-bb66-4bf5-a64d-f4001f3ab927", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64219979", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/11/ukraines-allies-not-giving-tools-to-defeat-russia-as-town-falls", "https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-forces-soledar-ukraine-pyrrhic-victory-trap/32223523.html", "https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/02/26/ukraine-finds-stepping-up-mobilisation-is-not-so-easy", "https://twitter.com/defmon3/status/1613593893823463424?s=46&amp;t=cNnyNODZKbWJs4c1JoUJzA", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/05/world/europe/bakhmut-ukraine-war.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_place_theory", "https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/ukraine:-possible-bakhmut-retreat-to-pre-empt-russian-repris", "https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/Bakhmut+Ukraine+UPPO0013:1:UP", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14607/russian-troops-in-central-bakhmut-by-1-27-23/", "https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/12/22/7381826/", "https://militaryland.net/"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2021-12-14

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2010

<p>The Biden administration has announced that it would support waiving intellectual property protections for COVID-19 vaccines (<a href="https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2021/may/statement-ambassador-katherine-tai-covid-19-trips-waiver" target="_blank">USTR.gov</a>, <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/05/05/993998745/biden-backs-waiving-international-patent-protections-for-covid-19-vaccines" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/covid-19-vaccine-patents-dominate-global-trade-talks-2021-05-05/" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). While consensus among all 164 member states is sought for WTO decisions, an agreement to grant waivers could be made by a vote of three-fourths of member states (<a href="https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/org1_e.htm" target="_blank">WTO</a>, <a href="https://sdg.iisd.org/commentary/policy-briefs/as-vaccine-roll-out-begins-wto-members-intensify-debate-over-policy-solutions/" target="_blank">SDG Knowledge Hub</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">&nbsp;or&nbsp;</span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,&nbsp;<a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>.&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>

2021-12-14

Before 14 December 2021, will the World Trade Organization (WTO) officially agree to grant waivers for intellectual property protections for COVID-19 vaccine technology?

2021-05-14

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["https://www.economist.com/business/2021/05/08/america-wants-to-waive-patent-protection-for-vaccines", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/06/us-germany-rift-covid-vaccine-patent-waivers", "https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/06/03/seven-reasons-eu-wrong-oppose-trips-waiver", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/26/biden-calls-for-intellectual-property-waivers-covid-vaccines", "https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/03/09/brazil-su", "https://www.politico.com/newsletters/weekly-trade/2021/11/08/wto-still-fishing-for-a-deal-as-ministerial-meeting-nears-798732", "https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Travel/wireStory/official-wto-delays-key-meeting-amid-covid-variant-81411081", "https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/europe-unions-new-move-may-hit-india-south-africas-patent-waiver-plan/articleshow/83325809.cms", "https://www.athina984.gr/en/2021/06/16/nompelistas-g-stigklits-o-kosmos-aichmalotos-tis-germanias-kai-tis-patentas-ton-emvolion/"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2023-07-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2668

<p>The city of Miami, Florida, is in a race with other mid-sized US cities to attract VC investment (<a href="https://nonrival.substack.com/p/will-miamis-tech-boom-last" target="_blank">Nonrival</a>, see first chart). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor data as reported by Nonrival (<a href="https://pitchbook.com/" target="_blank">PitchBook</a>, <a href="https://nonrival.substack.com/" target="_blank">Nonrival - Substack</a>).</p><p style="line-height:1;"><a href="https://nonrival.substack.com/)." target="_blank"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span></a><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2023-08-18

Will Miami rank among the top 7 US metro areas by total venture capital (VC) invested in the first half of 2023?

2022-12-09

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["https://us.cnn.com/2023/01/15/opinions/crypto-miami-sam-bankman-fried-cline-ctrp/index.html", "https://www.ey.com/en_us/growth/venture-capital/q3-2022-venture-capital-investment-trends", "https://refreshmiami.com/flow-of-miami-metro-vc-is-strong-in-q3-and-you-can-thank-adam-neumann-for-that/", "https://refreshmiami.com/how-do-miamis-tech-salaries-compare-new-report-sheds-some-light/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Florida_hurricanes_(2000%E2%80%93present)#2022", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2022/01/11/billionaire-ken-griffins-citadel-securities-valued-at-22-billion-after-12-billion-investment-from-sequoia-crypto-vc-paradigm/?sh=743b814268f9", "https://files.pitchbook.com/website/files/pdf/Q4_2022_PitchBook-NVCA_Venture_Monitor.pdf", "https://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/miami-dade-leaders-are-begging-elon-musk-to-move-twitter-to-the-305-15904035", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/12/10/miami-bitcoin-ftx-crypto-capital/"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2022-11-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2557

<p>Background checks for gun purchases have fallen from historic highs in 2020 and 2021, but remain above pre-pandemic levels (<a href="https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/gun-sales-finally-decline-january-2022-recent-record-pace-200340" target="_blank">National Interest</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the FBI (<a href="https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view" target="_blank">FBI.gov</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2022 and the outcome determined using data as first reported for October 2022, expected in early November 2022. For October 2021, the FBI reported 2,593,168 firearm background checks.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2022-11-03

Will more than 2,500,000 federal firearm background checks be initiated in the US in October 2022?

2022-09-23

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["https://usafacts.org/data/topics/security-safety/crime-and-justice/firearms/firearm-background-checks/?utm_source=bing&amp;utm_medium=cpc&amp;utm_campaign=ND-StatsData&amp;msclkid=008da85b1b0119b7881fcb62948729c0", "https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/23/visa-amex-guns-republicans-00058381", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1524360", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_e-RQZVwxg", "https://www.wdbj7.com/2022/09/29/visa-pushes-back-over-claims-its-tracking-users-gun-purchases/", "https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view", "https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/10/why-gun-sales-keep-booming-in-2022/", "https://goodjudgment.com/scientific-method/", "https://menafn.com/1104911879/The-Great-Gun-Buying-Boom-Of-America", "https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/06/24/congress-passes-gun-bill-sends-it-to-joe-biden-to-sign.html", "https://www.americanrifleman.org/content/gun-sales-exceed-1-million-for-38-months-counting/", "https://www.shootingillustrated.com/content/despite-sales-decline-2022-on-pace-to-see-the-third-largest-number-of-guns-sold-since-records-began/", "https://www.ammoland.com/2022/10/september-nics-continue-trend-third-highest-month-for-gun-sales/", "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jun/21/us-senators-gun-violence-bill-bipartisan-support", "https://sgbonline.com/nics-firearms-background-checks-slide-7-9-percent-in-september/", "https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/1446?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%5B%22federal+firearm+background+checks+117th+congress%22%2C%22federal%22%2C%22firearm%22%2C%22background%22%2C%22checks%22%2C%22117th%22%2C%22congress%22%5D%7D&amp;r=3&amp;s=4", "https://www.statista.com/statistics/249670/number-of-background-checks-done-by-the-nics-in-the-us/"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

1.0

True

2022-01-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2084

<p>Tensions continue to flare between Egypt and Ethiopia, particularly in relation to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam dispute (<a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/egypt-ethiopia-military-solution-gerd-dispute" target="_blank">Middle East Eye</a>, <a href="https://egyptindependent.com/egypt-fm-slams-ethiopian-remarks-on-military-confrontation-over-gerd/" target="_blank">Egypt Independent</a>, <a href="https://www.theafricareport.com/85672/is-a-war-between-egypt-and-ethiopia-brewing-on-the-nile/" target="_blank">Africa Report</a>). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side.</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:.4;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p><p></p>

2022-01-02

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Egypt and Ethiopia before 1 January 2022?

2021-07-23

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["https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/2021/09/16/egypt-says-un-statement-on-nile-dam-forces-ethiopia-to-be-seriously-involved/", "https://russiancouncil.ru/en/blogs/andrew-korybko/will-us-sanctions-against-ethiopia-provide-russia-with-regional-openin/", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/6/egypt-angry-ethiopia-resumes-filling-gerd", "https://www.voanews.com/africa/second-filling-ethiopias-giant-dam-nearly-complete-state-media", "https://www.aljazeera.com/program/inside-story/2021/7/4/ethiopias-renaissance-dam-has-diplomacy-failed", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-57467640", "https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/2021/07/05/taking-gerd-dispute-to-security-council-may-be-egypt-and-sudans-last-diplomatic-attempt/", "https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2020/08/05/the-controversy-over-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam/", "https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/105370/State-Department-US-supports-Egypt%E2%80%99s-rights-seeks-to-reach-GERD", "https://www.africanews.com/2021/05/31/why-are-protestors-in-ethiopia-and-mali-waving-russian-flags//", "https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/09/egypt-overhaul-hydropower-plants-amid-nile-dam-crisis", "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/africa/russia-ethiopia-ink-military-cooperation-agreement/2302337", "https://reliefweb.int/report/ethiopia/wetter-usual-season-expected-over-northern-part-region", "https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/world/africa/2021-07-06-egypt-and-sudan-sound-alarm-as-ethiopia-resumes-filling-nile-dam/", "https://www.voanews.com/africa/us-continues-non-humanitarian-assistance-pause-pressure-ethiopia-end-tigray-conflict", "https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/07/china-ready-intervene-nile-dam-crisis", "https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/10/ethiopia-preps-third-filling-nile-dam-diplomacy-stalls#ixzz79qe2Gt6W", "https://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/10/408810/World/Africa/Sudan-rules-out-armed-action-over-Ethiopias-GERD.aspx", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1316757", "https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20210709-security-council-backs-african-union-mediation-bid-over-disputed-nile-dam", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/why-ethiopias-mega-dam-has-its-neighbors-fuming/2021/07/07/dedf7692-df11-11eb-a27f-8b294930e95b_story.html", "https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/08/takeaway-egypt-weighs-options-nile-dam-ethiopia-escalates-war-tigray", "https://apnews.com/article/global-trade-egypt-cairo-moscow-suez-canal-d090a2f5edee60aec9a97369c5235faf", "https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/how-do-egypt-ethiopia-stack-up-militarily-671092", "https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/diplomatic-pressure-mounts-on-ethiopia-over-filling-of-giant-dam"]

binary

Not applicable/available for this question.

gjopen

0.0

True

2024-01-01

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2732

<p>Protests in Peru have continued since President Castillo was removed from office by the Congress, with protests calling for, among other things, President Dina Boluarte to resign (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-63895505" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/boluarte-calls-for-peru-truce-as-protesters-mass-again-in-lima/6932952.html" target="_blank">Voice of America</a>, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/01/22/1150639853/peru-has-closed-off-machu-picchu-due-to-growing-anti-government-protests" target="_blank">NPR</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> or </span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(22, 107, 118);font-size:10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/" target="_blank">see here</a>. </span><span style="font-size:10.5px;">For other posts from our Insights blog, </span><a href="https://goodjudgment.com/insights/" target="_blank" style="font-size:10.5px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">click here</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size:10.5px;">.</span></p>

2024-01-01

Will Dina Boluarte cease to be the president of Peru before 1 January 2024?

2023-01-26

[["2023-01-27", 1.0], ["2023-01-27", 0.875], ["2023-01-27", 0.875], ["2023-01-27", 0.9133], ["2023-01-27", 0.8975], ["2023-01-28", 0.904], ["2023-01-28", 0.92], ["2023-01-28", 0.9286], ["2023-01-28", 0.9325], ["2023-01-29", 0.9289], ["2023-01-29", 0.906], ["2023-01-29", 0.8236], ["2023-01-29", 0.8383], ["2023-01-30", 0.7815], ["2023-01-30", 0.7969], ["2023-01-30", 0.7827], ["2023-01-30", 0.8008], ["2023-01-31", 0.8133], ["2023-01-31", 0.765], ["2023-01-31", 0.724], ["2023-01-31", 0.7055], ["2023-02-01", 0.7158], ["2023-02-01", 0.7169], ["2023-02-01", 0.7618], ["2023-02-02", 0.783], ["2023-02-03", 0.77], ["2023-02-06", 0.756], ["2023-02-07", 0.752], ["2023-02-10", 0.745], ["2023-02-15", 0.729], ["2023-02-18", 0.794], ["2023-02-25", 0.792], ["2023-02-25", 0.791], ["2023-02-25", 0.789], ["2023-02-26", 0.789], ["2023-03-12", 0.837], ["2023-03-17", 0.84], ["2023-03-20", 0.847], ["2023-03-27", 0.863], ["2023-03-30", 0.866], ["2023-05-04", 0.881], ["2023-05-17", 0.878], ["2023-05-22", 0.83], ["2023-05-23", 0.8164], ["2023-05-25", 0.79], ["2023-05-31", 0.7891], ["2023-06-03", 0.7873], ["2023-06-15", 0.7809], ["2023-06-18", 0.7345], ["2023-06-19", 0.7118], ["2023-06-21", 0.71], ["2023-06-23", 0.6882], ["2023-06-26", 0.6864], ["2023-07-02", 0.6645], ["2023-07-11", 0.6282], ["2023-07-13", 0.6], ["2023-07-29", 0.6055], ["2023-08-01", 0.6045], ["2023-08-11", 0.6036], ["2023-08-11", 0.5655], ["2023-08-15", 0.5645], ["2023-09-01", 0.6027], ["2023-09-11", 0.5764], ["2023-09-11", 0.5845], ["2023-09-11", 0.5864], ["2023-09-11", 0.5791], ["2023-09-15", 0.52], ["2023-09-17", 0.5155], ["2023-09-30", 0.5091], ["2023-10-10", 0.4667], ["2023-10-12", 0.4575], ["2023-10-14", 0.4533], ["2023-10-21", 0.4458], ["2023-10-22", 0.4358], ["2023-10-24", 0.4258], ["2023-10-24", 0.4233], ["2023-10-24", 0.4117], ["2023-10-26", 0.4092], ["2023-10-28", 0.4067], ["2023-10-28", 0.3975], ["2023-10-29", 0.3892], ["2023-10-31", 0.3875], ["2023-11-01", 0.3708], ["2023-11-02", 0.365], ["2023-11-03", 0.3142], ["2023-11-04", 0.3133], ["2023-11-04", 0.305], ["2023-11-04", 0.2308], ["2023-11-05", 0.2125], ["2023-11-11", 0.1983], ["2023-11-12", 0.2008], ["2023-11-18", 0.1942], ["2023-11-18", 0.1908], ["2023-11-25", 0.19], ["2023-11-26", 0.1858], ["2023-12-02", 0.185], ["2023-12-02", 0.1717], ["2023-12-02", 0.165], ["2023-12-03", 0.1642], ["2023-12-08", 0.1358], ["2023-12-09", 0.1342], ["2023-12-11", 0.1008], ["2023-12-16", 0.0958], ["2023-12-19", 0.0667], ["2023-12-19", 0.0615], ["2023-12-19", 0.0462], ["2023-12-22", 0.0454], ["2023-12-23", 0.0446], ["2023-12-29", 0.0446], ["2024-01-01", 0.0177], ["2024-01-01", 0.0177]]

["https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Peru-Extends-Emergency-State-for-30-Days-to-Contain-Protests-20230713-0009.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-12/peru-s-president-is-loved-by-ceos-hated-by-mostly-everyone-else#xj4y7vzkg", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-12/peru-s-president-is-loved-by-ceos-hated-by-mostly-everyone-else", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-16/peru-s-president-boluarte-says-she-ll-remain-in-power-until-2026#xj4y7vzkg", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-65930736"]

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