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5

Does value investing mean you never buy fairly valued stocks?

27 comments

2023-05-24

Hi,So I'm a beginner investor but I read Graham's book and was quickly convinced value investing was the way to go.I'm only 30 and plan to invest for at least 10-20 years.I also subscribe to Morningstar and follow their analyses, which has mostly been a succes for me personally.Now, here's the question: I invested in a few stocks when they were undervalued and they now have gone up. They are now fairly valued (again, according to Morningstar) which means that - in theory, they're not worth it anymore as a value investor.At the same time, I believe these companies will do well in the coming decades and still want to expand my exposure to them.So what should I do?Do you wait for a pull back to buy at a great price or do you buy now even if it's technically not "on sale"?Thanks!

2023-07-24

4

MVIS looks to present an attractive short opportunity

50 comments

2023-05-24

Looking at MVIS, there has been alot of internet hype about the stock. It's tough to nail down exactly why it is rallying, but I suspect its purely due to short squeeze mechanics. The shares available on iborrowdesk have shrunk to as little as 59 shares available and the fee has jumped to 59%. Considering how heavily shorted this is and how short sellers have learned how to better control these situations after GME and other meme stock run ups, the smart money is saying its going back to where it came from.I can remember playing BBBY back in August and similar mechanics were at play. MVIS has run up from about 1.82 low to now to a high of 7.27 or almost a 4 fold run up. BBBY ran from about 5 bucks to 30 for a 6 fold run up which really only stopped because Cohen sold his stake. So there may be more gas in the tank.MVIS also had a similar run from about $1.80 to $7 back in 2020 leading into 2021. From there it was able to achieve a price of 24 and several months later 28. However this go around, there is no stimulus money available to the public or easy loans for people to take out and yolo on the stock. Considering the liquidity necessary to carry the squeeze on is not there and retail primarily only buys options, I'd say MVIS is primed for a nice run back down to about 5.30 (where it came from today) into the end of this week.After this downturn which is likely to be a daily grind down, it may be a good time to look at going long again until you see another blow off top on very big volume.Going long again due to another hype cycle via an event they are participating in June:MVIS ADAS & Autonomous Vehicle Technology Expo in Stuttgart on June 13-15. Will showcase MAVIN and MOVIA lidar sensor product line. Visitors can also catch MOSAIK Suite.I like the idea of everyone in over $4 being wipped out and that probably presents a good long price point. It posted 30M today in volume which is almost up there in terms of 12 month volume highs. The company posted earnings on the 9th losing $19 million in the 1st quarter and made only 782k in revenue. 2022 saw only about 600k in revenue compared to just 2017 with 17.61 Million in revenue (pretty sharp decline).So MVIS is either going into the ground tomorrow and friday. Or it resists going lower and powers into June 13-15. The news whatever it is on June 13-15 will be no different of an effect than how AAPL just had a nice decline into their event. Plan accordingly

2023-07-24

26

r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Technicals Tuesday - Jun 06, 2023

334 comments

2023-05-24

This is the daily discussion, so anything stocks related is fine, but the theme for today is on technical analysis (TA), but if TA is not your thing then just ignore the theme and/or post your arguments against TA here and not in the current post.Some helpful day to day links, including news:Finviz for charts, fundamentals, and aggregated news on individual stocksBloomberg market newsStreetInsider news:Market Check - Possibly why the market is doing what it's doing including sudden spikes/dipsReuters aggregated - Global newsTechnical analysis (TA) uses historical price movements, real time data, indicators based on math and/or statistics, and charts; all of which help measure the trajectory of a security. TA can also be used to interpret the actions of other market participants and predict their actions.The main benefit to TA is that everything shows up in the price (commonly known as "priced in"): All news, investor sentiment, and changes to fundamentals are reflected in a security's price.TA can be useful on any timeframe, both short and long term.Intro to technical analysis by Stockcharts chartschool and their article on candlesticksIf you have questions, please see the following word cloud and click through for the wiki:Indicator - Trade Signals - Lagging Indicator - Leading Indicator - Oversold - Overbought - Divergence - Whipsaw - Resistance - Support - Breakout/Breakdown - Alerts - Trend line - Market Participants - Moving average - RSI - VWAP - MACD - ATR - Bollinger Bands - Ichimoku clouds - Methods - Trend Following - Fading - Channels - Patterns - PivotsSee our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.

2023-07-24

3

QYLD vs ETF of the Q’s

4 comments

2023-05-24

This will sound like a dumb question, but maybe someone else is wondering the same thing:QYLD is supposed to just be a QQQQ index that sells covered calls and distributes the proceeds every month as a dividend; correct? I’m assuming that’s not correct, because over the past year, QYLD has vastly underperformed the index.So, why is that? Can anyone explain to me what I’m missing? Thank you in advance!

2023-07-24

271

AAPL price dump after VR headset reveal

318 comments

2023-05-24

The price movement was directly correlated with the VR headset announcement along with the demo of features.Yes, it looks like ski goggles.The OS is called Vision ProThe VR OS is similar to Microsoft's Mixed Reality with their Hololens product which came out 8 years ago...One of the selling features is that your eyes are visible, but the headset will conceal your eyes when you're fully immersed in an app.. which may or may not be groundbreaking as it didn't perfectly reveal your eyes (perhaps because there wasn't enough lighting inside the goggles to show your eyes clearly, but I think this could be fixed w/ software or by adding LED lights on the inside edges), however:If you can keep your headset on while talking to people in the room compared to the competition, this feature alone would win outPrice tag is $3500, but again this is the dev conference, so the consumer version of this product will come later, although I can see how a lot of developers might want to buy this thing (also consider that Apple has the largest developer network) compared to competitor headsets which cost 7x less (META is coming out with a $500 VR headset).Something to note, the stock dropped nearly 1.5% during all the free features (before the VR headset) that were going to be included to existing users, however that did coincide with the market indexes dropping as well.Total drop from the peak was around 3.5% however the stock recovered nearly a percent, today's loss is only around 0.75% after falling from making another new 52w all time high. Trading volume was 2x the normal average, so ending red is very significant.META & MSFT stayed relatively flat compared to AAPL.Overall I think this was bad news for the stock in the short term; buy the rumor sell the news type event. If the VR headset was truly revolutionary, stock price would have gone much higher, so we have to wait & see what Apple developers can do with this headset for consumers & what Apple's actual consumer version of the headset will be. Than after 12 to 18 months when the killer apps come out, re-evaluate Apple's VR headset.FYI I own AAPL stock

2023-07-24

156

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https://alb.reddit.com/cr?za=vpp1FvTY_OCkEvQge7eZdpNZ_ppbAVtSolaTB8aFPTX3iCfuehmIkllYSdT9VROkstT43DhqUQ4-qLaVY9ajd-iDlVFQLlgfvgCq2gE-6CyQS1FTvgEaGmYsZjtNwJMGoE2UeiVFs_hsdqgD9jrd9Di6_m1hNfoeiJZYMyQRP7P0SpqmHpj5jJPEuqdu6g5eMSZxa-ry_HYu9pfR4Iw5EOYkcDZMw953XShAnVIBGRApM23z9hAMC03oNXs3-WnszQdK3VWKRy1dZk4W5ke0mzJp3_plQN5I_ZUZXfyRZ8_t8x3UFvjbtVXGPufAa_xSHLjmQuNq5ha7QZehced3ScRaZCLiQUmf5pMFhjHyntNYtrRN1tleKiWnNjywJmqDNxHFEdi3&zp=DwgQbqx5MgM9s2CA904H6shttDDmzU-bf30JdhldHNw7BwA5J5USJftysUHXBrzOvz0cB30nIMzjfmcBeD0qxWMABuzHGLoSBEZJPhTFshLX8CJvOMXWLjssBHIQdtywecNmH-7r_QuoaTEhUnKOHhgybk5cDU98OIGNXJCYxcAMnUifz8z--53e8gaffvbLZ_FzBbVRyRa0s-4opqaTBlQrMqoNhwliaLJoKpXmYfkvDMT_8arvrjk

0 comments

2023-07-24

669

AAPL reaches all time high in pre-market trading

397 comments

2023-05-24

Apple reached today a new all time high of $182.7 in pre-market. Lots of expectations around the WWDC event and their much anticipated VR announcement.What's your personal take on this? Is it just euphoria or is Apple poised to grow even further throughout the rest of the year?

2023-07-24

8

CALM (cal maine foods inc)

9 comments

2023-05-24

Just wanted to start a discussion on this ticker. It appears to be a solid dividend stock that is undervalued at the moment. Is anyone in on this stock / willing to share some thoughts on its strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.

2023-07-24

7

(6/6) Tuesday's Pre-Market Stock Movers & News

2 comments

2023-05-24

Good morning traders and investors of the r/stocks sub! Welcome to the new trading day and a fresh start! Here are your pre-market stock movers & news on this Tuesday, June the 6th, 2023-Stock futures dip slightly as market rally takes a breather: Live updatesStock futures fell slightly Tuesday as Wall Street digested a recent rally that led the S&P 500 to its highest level in nine months.Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 39 points, or about 0.1%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures also each dipped 0.1%.The market is coming off a down session, with the S&P 500 falling 0.2% after touching its highest level since August. The Dow and Nasdaq Composite also fell.Apple contributed to the leg down, as the iPhone maker briefly touched all-time highs earlier in the session only to end about 0.8% lower. The Big Tech company — which swung between a 2.2% gain and a 1.6% loss Monday — debuted its highly anticipated virtual reality headset as well as new software at its annual Worldwide Developer Conference on Monday. Shares were up slightly after hours.Apple’s conference also weighed on other tech names, with Intel dropping more than 4% after Apple unveiled a new chip.“If you’re a $3-trillion company, the tail kind of wags the dog to an extent,” said Keith Buchanan, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments. “Apple, just given the sheer magnitude of its market cap, is going to have its way with most broader indices.”Elsewhere, bank stocks slid following news that regulators are contemplating increasing capital requirements for large banks. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America each lost about 0.6% on Monday, while Morgan Stanley slipped around 0.7% and JPMorgan shares slid nearly 1%. The SPDR S&P Bank ETF dropped about 2.2%.STOCK FUTURES CURRENTLY:(CLICK HERE FOR STOCK FUTURES CHARTS!)YESTERDAY'S MARKET MAP:(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S MARKET MAP!)TODAY'S MARKET MAP:(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S MARKET MAP!)YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS:(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!)TODAY'S S&P SECTORS:(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!)TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!)THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!)THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S:(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S!)THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR:(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!)THIS MORNING'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS CALENDAR:(CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!)EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE THE OPEN TODAY:(CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS RELEASES!)THIS AFTERNOON'S AFTER-HOURS EARNINGS CALENDAR:(CLICK HERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!)EARNINGS RELEASES AFTER THE CLOSE TODAY:(CLICK HERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S EARNINGS RELEASES!)YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES:(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #1!)(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #2!)YESTERDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS:(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS!)TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR:(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR LINK #1!)(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR LINK #2!)THIS MORNING'S STOCK NEWS MOVERS:(source: cnbc.com)(TO BE POSTED LATER THIS MORNING.) — (TO BE POSTED LATER THIS MORNING.).STOCK SYMBOL: (TO BE POSTED LATER THIS MORNING.)CLICK HERE FOR CHART!(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)FULL DISCLOSURE:/u/bigbear0083 has no positions in any stocks mentioned. Reddit, moderators, and the author do not advise making investment decisions based on discussion in these posts. Analysis is not subject to validation and users take action at their own risk.DISCUSS!What's on everyone's radar for today's trading day ahead here at r/stocks?I hope you all have an excellent trading day ahead today on this Tuesday, June 6th, 2023! :)

2023-07-24

0

Good Paywall Sites?

2 comments

2023-05-24

New to investing but I learned from losing a lot in sports betting to never make any subjective bets, i.e. to only make the bets that people who do this for a living and have a proven track record tell me to. To that end do you guys have any recs for sites to follow with really good demonstrated ROI on their tips/recommendations? E.g. Zacks, Motley Fool, Forbes, Morningstar. Using RobinHood and wanna stick with buying/selling stocks and ETFs

2023-07-24

4

Struggling to choose a platform for long term investing

29 comments

2023-05-24

I’m 23, make 26-30k a year (Do freelance on the side so it jumps depending on work).I’ve dabbled in trading 212 for about 2 years but based on what I heard it’s not great for long term investments and I kind of just gave up on it.I don’t have a preset amount I want to invest, instead I want to invest incrementally, percentage of each pay check. I don’t plan on taking the money out any time soon.I am based in Ireland, and wondering what kind of platform would suit me best for what I’m trying to do?Thank you in advance for any advice.

2023-07-24

18

DISCORD stock pre-IPO

35 comments

2023-05-24

I got this email from Equity Zen today about purchasing common stock of Discord. Seems like a lot of buzz about this one. Any thoughts on this? Here's what they wrote:Hi (my Name), You are receiving this notification because you have expressed interest in investing in Discord through EquityZen. EquityZen will launch an investment opportunity in Discord at 12:00PM Eastern Time on Tuesday, June 6th, 2023. A link to the offering will be available on our Listings page once it is Live, and will include information about the investment opportunity including pricing and valuation. Investment fund details (additional details will be made available at 12:00PM Eastern Time on Tuesday, June 6th, 2023):Shares: Discord, Common StockShare Price: $250.00 (incl. fees, $262.50)Deal's Implied Valuation: $7.74BDiscount to Last Valuation: 54.60% Minimum Investment Size: $10,000.00

2023-07-24

0

Apple investors dumped their shares after the company's VR headset- analyst said was overhyped

31 comments

2023-05-24

Apple stock fell nearly -1% on Monday after the release of its highly-anticipated Vision Pro virtual reality headset that one analyst said was costlier than anticipated and overhyped.The Vision Pro unveiling created a sell-the-news event in Monday’s trading, as is typical for a product launch of its scale, KeyBanc analyst Brandon Nispel wrote in a research note to clients on Monday, saying the “hype leading into the event felt well overdone.Prior to the news the stock was 4% higher....

2023-07-24

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0 comments

2023-07-24

0

How should I approach everything.

19 comments

2023-05-24

So I am very new also very young (17M) I finished school and work rn. I have around 500$ in the market invested in SCHD, VT, QQQM. I dont really know all of the terms yet it’s very complicated but by doing a little bit of research I think that these stocks provide a small return but are very low risk in the long run. Anyway what should I do?

2023-07-24

14

Considering Google as a potential long-term investment, would love to hear your thoughts

43 comments

2023-05-24

Hi r/stocks !I currently put about 80% of my saving each month (About 4100 USD) to S&P500 (VOO) and the last 20% are divided between multiple technology stocks, mostly Google, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Nvidia and AMD (very original, I know). Recently I thought of dividing the last 20% differently and giving 10-15% to 1 company that I believe in instead of dividing it between them "randomly" as I did until now, and I thought of Google for the following reasons:* AI - I use AI technologies and ChatGPT daily. I think that while Google are currently behind, they will eventually catch up and be a leader in the sector. They show impressive advancements recently, and not only that there are signs that they are leading the sector in other areas, like physical robots (Like the awesome video where they play soccer/football). On the other hand, Microsoft bought their usage of AI and rely almost entirely on OpenAI to advance the field for them, which is risky and might lead to many issues in the long run.* Quantum computing - This market is clearly going to change the world when it becomes mainstream, and Google is currently a leader in the area. They continue developing and researching in the field and continue to show progress, including this year.A combination of advancing in AI in the shorter term and being a strong company in quantum computing in the long run leads me to believe that Google might be a good investment for the long run, possibly more than other technology companies.Of course I am 100% aware that no one can perdict he future and don't intend to put everything in one basket, but I still wonder what your thoughts are, and if I should put more into Google than other tech companies.

2023-07-24

1

What stock are you holding for a 5-10x gain that you have high conviction in?

97 comments

2023-05-24

I'm curious to know what stocks you're currently holding in your portfolio that you believe have the potential to deliver significant gains, possibly 5-10 times their current value. We all know that investing involves some level of risk, but I'm particularly interested in hearing about the stocks you have high conviction in. Whether it's due to promising industry trends, strong fundamentals, upcoming catalysts, or any other factors that give you confidence, please share your insights and reasons behind your choices. I’m willing to sprinkle some sheckles on some of these if they look worth it. If you feel you have any hidden gems please drop a comment. Shills please CHILL.

2023-07-24

0

Hypothetical pump and dumb scenario

7 comments

2023-05-24

For shits and giggles me and friend decided to see who could make the most using $50 within a week. The company I was eyeing almost doubled then crashed within a day, I assume this is a classic pump and dump, had i participated (bought low and sold high) would I be legally prosecuted for having participated in a pump and dump ?I don’t think a 50 would raise any eye brows, but say I put in a larger amount, would that cause any trouble ?

2023-07-24

335

Should r/Stocks go dark in protest against Reddit 3rd party API fees? VOTE!

101 comments

2023-05-24

The Rate my Portfolio sticky can be found here.The mods have been discussing whether we should join other communities in going private in protest against Reddit charging high API fees. The high fees will 100% kill apps like Apollo & RIF.We have always stayed out of these issues because we try to remain as unbiased & neutral as possible, however:If most of Reddit goes dark/private, this will become a problem for our community & r/stocks moderators, who are 100% volunteers, because of the influx of non-stock users who will most likely go off topic requiring more moderation.On the other hand, 3rd party apps dying might cause an exodus of users leaving Reddit & the platform slowly dying a la Digg, so maybe we should do something about it.The plan is to go dark from June 12th to the 14th, a full 3 days.Two choices:Keep r/Stocks open, deal with non-stock users & off topic posts/comments as best as possible, all our community users will just have to suck it up and "understand" (that includes the expectation that rule breaking posts/comments will just take longer to moderate.. even a full 3 days before they're dealt with)Join the rest of Reddit by making r/Stocks private to protest against Reddit's 3rd party API fees.. potentially making a difference by changing Reddit's decision (best case scenario is that apps like Apollo/RIF keep running)So there you have it investors & traders, please cast your vote, voting ends Thursday, this gives us time to make another sticky on Friday & the weekend in preparation if we do go private.View Pollupdate an hour left and it's obvious the results; i'm actually going to start a new poll to dictate the amount of days, why stop at 3 (which I made a mistake, was supposed to be 48 hours, but after the apollo shutting down, that changes things

2023-07-24

1.3k

Saudi Arabia announces further voluntary cuts of 1 Million Barrels a Day Industry News

397

2023-05-24

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/04/opec-sticks-to-2023-oil-production-targets-as-saudi-arabia-announces-further-voluntary-cuts.html OPEC is sticking to its production cuts through 2024. In addition, Saudi Arabia starting in July will voluntarily cut an additional 1 Million Barrels a day for 1 month which can be extended. This brings Saudi production to the lowest point in 9 years excluding covid.

2023-07-24

0

Does Fiserv ($FISV) deserve a spot on your watchlist? Company Discussion

2

2023-05-24

The excitement of investing in a company that can reverse its fortunes is a big draw for some speculators, so even companies that have no revenue, no profit, and a record of falling short, can manage to find investors. But as Peter Lynch said in One Up On Wall Street, 'Long shots almost never pay off.' A loss-making company is yet to prove itself with profit, and eventually the inflow of external capital may dry up. In contrast to all that, many investors prefer to focus on companies like Fiserv ($FISV), which has not only revenues, but also profits. While profit isn't the sole metric that should be considered when investing, it's worth recognizing businesses that can consistently produce it. How Fast Is Fiserv Growing? If you believe that markets are even vaguely efficient, then over the long term you'd expect a company's share price to follow its earnings per share (EPS) outcomes. That means EPS growth is considered a real positive by most successful long-term investors. Impressively, Fiserv has grown EPS by 29% per year, compound, in the last three years. As a general rule, I'd say that if a company can keep up that sort of growth, shareholders will be beaming. Careful consideration of revenue growth and earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT) margins can help inform a view on the sustainability of the recent profit growth. Fiserv shareholders can take confidence from the fact that EBIT margins are up from 15% to 22%, and revenue is growing. That's great to see, on both counts. Are Fiserv Insiders Aligned With All Shareholders? Since Fiserv has a market capitalization of US$70b, I wouldn't expect insiders to hold a large percentage of shares. But I do take comfort from the fact that they are investors in the company. I note that their impressive stake in the company is worth US$360m. This comes in at 0.5% of shares in the company, which is a fair amount of a business of this size. This still shows shareholders there is a degree of alignment between management and themselves. Does Fiserv Deserve A Spot On Your Watchlist? You can't deny that Fiserv has grown its earnings per share at a very impressive rate. That's attractive. This EPS growth rate is something the company should be proud of, and so it's no surprise that insiders are holding on to a considerable chunk of shares. The growth and insider confidence is looked upon well and so it's worthwhile to investigate further with a view to discern the stock's true value. https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/diversified-financials/nasdaq-fisv/fiserv/news/does-fiserv-nasdaqfisv-deserve-a-spot-on-your-watchlist

2023-07-24

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0

2023-07-24

62

Why PayPal Stock ($PYPL) lost 18% in May Company Discussion

121

2023-05-24

PayPal's growth is slowing, but it's performing well in a challenging environment. The near-term outlook remains pressured. New companies are trying to chip away at PayPal's lead, but its long-term premise is intact. Investors are worried about the future. What happened Shares of PayPal ($PYPL) stock fell 18% in May, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. The company released a first-quarter earnings report that worried investors. So what PayPal is still the industry leader in digital and peer-to-peer payments, with first-quarter total payment volume (TPV) of $355 million, a 10% year-over-year increase. Revenue was up 9% to $7 billion, and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) increased 33% to $1.17.Revenue growth has decelerated into single digits, and it's expected to further contract to 6.5% to 7% in the second quarter. Management raised full-year EPS guidance to $4.95, or a 20% increase over last year. That doesn't sound bad at all, and even more so when you factor in the difficult operating environment that includes slowdowns in spending and a high-interest-rate environment. Investors seem to be more focused on PayPal's long-term prospects, which is the right lens in which to view the stock's value. With its lead in its business, PayPal is the company to beat in this game. The thing is, many companies are doing just that, getting into digital payments and financial technology, and bringing a fresh face to the table. It's ironic to think of PayPal as the older, established company in an industry that itself is so young and technology-oriented, but it's been around long enough for PayPal to be huge and relevant. A company as big and dominant as PayPal can sometimes be hampered with agility and innovation by its size and focus. Fintech is wide open with tons of opportunity, and other companies are working, often in niche segments, on developing new technology in digital financial services. Furthering sour investor sentiment, PayPal CEO Dan Shulman is leaving the company at the end of the year. A fresh CEO might be just the thing PayPal needs to generate investor enthusiasm, but until one is announced, the market may not take a liking to PayPal stock. Now what PayPal is still posting admirable performance in a hostile environment, and it's still releasing new features and services to protect its moat as the dominant player in its business. It's long-term potential looks solid. PayPal stock is down 10% this year, and shares trade at just 27 times trailing-12-month earnings. That's about half of its five-year average. Is it cheap? With its slowing growth rates, it's probably priced about right, and forward-thinking investors can feel comfortable buying PayPal stock as a long-term addition to a portfolio. https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/06/04/why-paypal-stock-lost-18-in-may/

2023-07-24

23

r/Stocks Daily Discussion Monday - Jun 05, 2023

563

2023-05-24

These daily discussions run from Monday to Friday including during our themed posts. Some helpful links: Finviz for charts, fundamentals, and aggregated news on individual stocks Bloomberg market news StreetInsider news: Market Check - Possibly why the market is doing what it's doing including sudden spikes/dips Reuters aggregated - Global news If you have a basic question, for example "what is EPS," then google "investopedia EPS" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned. Please discuss your portfolios in the Rate My Portfolio sticky.. See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.

2023-07-24

6

The Weakening Pulse of the Markets: Why I See No Room for Further Rise

24

2023-05-24

The week starts off with the market showing a lack of momentum. The S&P 500 is barely edging higher while the yield on the ten-year UST briefly surpassed 3.74% per annum before declining to 3.68%. The DXY peaked above 104.3 before retracing to 104. While I still wouldn’t discount the possibility of an attempt to breach the 4300 point mark this week, I suspect this uptick lacks the momentum to sustain itself. We might see a continuation of the upward trend, but I doubt it will surpass 2-3%. So, what's my plan of action for the time being? Concerning gold, I feel the current levels are favorable for amassing a position. In terms of indices, I'm maintaining a short position, as I see more downside potential than upside. Regarding TLT/TMF, I expect that despite the potential for slight near-term yield increases, in the span of 5-6 months we'll see yields for ten-year periods in the range of 2.9-3.1%. Consequently, both TLT and TMF should rise significantly. My slightly bearish outlook is bolstered by an insightful perspective from Morgan Stanley analysts. Their renowned Wall Street pessimist Mike Wilson anticipates a significant plunge in this year's earnings. He predicts a year-over-year drop of 16%, a scenario not yet priced in by the markets. Wilson's base case envisions a dip to 3900 points for the S&P 500 - the lower end of Wall Street analysts' expectations. Yet his expectation of a more profound market drop lacks a solid rationale. Factors such as the excitement surrounding artificial intelligence and other major tech companies, coupled with the Fed's interventions and the ongoing drama surrounding the US national debt ceiling, continue to buoy the market. On Friday, the market demonstrated optimism, reacting positively to unemployment data and non-farm payroll figures. With such a robust job market, a US recession seems to be on hold. Additionally, this serves as yet another incentive for the Fed to delay interest rate hikes. Despite the inflation surge, there's no urgency. So what lies ahead? President Biden has indeed signed a bill suspending the national debt ceiling until January 1, 2025. However, I find myself aligned with Wilson's view that this could cause a significant liquidity crunch, and given the prevailing high rates, this could weigh on the markets in the latter half of the year. By signing the bill to raise the debt ceiling, the White House has effectively unleashed a 'Kraken' on the market in the form of the US Treasury. Preliminary estimates indicate that the regulator will issue over $1 trillion in government bonds from June to December. Meanwhile, the monthly $95 billion quantitative tightening (QT) remains in effect.

2023-07-24

95

US Banking Crisis Spurs $756 Billion Capital Surge Into Cash Funds

23 comments

2023-05-24

Full ArticleIn a note on Friday, the Bank of America Corp (NYSE: BAC) said that money market funds have witnessed a deluge of more than half a trillion dollars’ worth of capital.According to the note, money market funds have attracted $756 billion in investments this year amid the banking crisis and the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes, Reuters reported.The bank said that the flow of capital into money market funds is coming close to a level last seen approximately three years ago when investors panicked and redirected $917 billion into cash funds amid the COVID-19 pandemic.The downfall of several U.S. banks this year has prompted a significant number of individuals and businesses to withdraw their money from bank deposits and invest in money market funds.Additionally, the bank revealed that tech stocks continued to maintain appeal, with a steady inflow of $500 million into tech stock funds for the sixth consecutive week.Last month, Bank of America’s chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett said in a note that the stock market could witness a significant sell-off event in the coming weeks, Bloomberg reported.Referring to data from the financial analytics firm EPFR, the bank disclosed that stocks experienced their third consecutive week of outflows, amounting to $3.9 billion.

2023-07-24

7

Investopedia - “IBKR has more fractional shares available across more markets than anyone else.” Your capital is at risk.

https://alb.reddit.com/cr?za=8hxjJNCwRpCU-qa1l-AyTMhR5PTH9Hh_szodzYoMJ_DuUmdEdSAubU-ENdZDb616AaIkd3hZIQbQXQubb7e7VkiGNcAd4ReokwWwyqDYMQnydiFQ8btLAvN2wMa-FY-flZP4sMA79_GK6sQMFZqzUF0LRUgT2Jqg6FaCX6lmbqllcKgZorJvmkYwEKpp6S7PuGK9jmin7INLrvloPbt86hnQfs6ELf6ro_LyURiRy_FmAs3G5UbQKVnn0vYvKPyDIjGGq6mT0fZfmRu3i3gyyUZs-5pUjTA9BWIzaqTQ1edqgjPzbJXD1lbQaw3xlEgDw2B3fSXANETFQB8vthSYZJyVEKCI8svdb2nlHU16ChHR08CEXkrOSSTey-GLFsmYInU9teMD&zp=e_uhQPlOcRynwSO2XNxEhOcJVBm11WF4gF-yEcn7mwLs5rUBhN29P1-TumM7KOXHnnbYarR4i58_VW58D5Dzq3LqWbsPrKGtWOwhu_enh4aJarfdej9KfwbsIB2Qej2uRgSHEFUhHi0WDbM_dHeKPV5lLc6pysZNUauy3bqT9NJ1XWctrc4E2l6dzJKlUIFKu1KxdzCDdt3-j-Ww2X9XIQZCcRBPfs9DFN4PN84kPS82P7omZM9g60cgdlGcueGnHz1aiA

0 comments

2023-07-24

1

Will Big Tech Slow Down At All? How?

16 comments

2023-05-24

I've got 9/15 $35 SQQQ Calls but I'm getting worried because big tech seems unstoppable and a correction may be a tiny 5% pullback before it explodes again.About a month or two ago I was fairly confident in a recession happening, but recently with new data coming out, it seems like there ain't gonna be a recession.I'm really just looking for opinions on how and why big tech will see a decently sized correction in the near future because the way things look now, it's hard to fathom a big correction in tech.

2023-07-24

63

Is The Bear Market Over? Will The Economy Fool Everyone and Not Go into Recession? Where Do Oil Stocks Go from Here?

112 comments

2023-05-24

I recently wrote an article that startled me with its reaction. Over 330,000 people read it in two days on Reddit alone. It was We Have Had 2 Recessions And 2 Bear Markets in 3 Years, Will It Be 3 In Just 4 Years? I suggest reading it first. It starts with "I have watched the stock market since the 1970s. Never in my life have I seen so many people think a recession was coming before. Yet this has gone on for about 9 months, and still no recession. "This Friday, 6-2-2023, was a breakout day for both the SP500 and the Russell 2000 (small caps). The SP500 did a Cup and Handle breakout and the Russell a flat bottom base breakout. The NASDAQ 100 has already broken out, for a while. Yes, there are all sorts of bad things and stock valuations are poor. But does that mean the stock market will not go up? Look at 2020 and 2021 as recent examples of bad problems and extremely high valuations, and the stock market still went up big anyway. We have had two bear markets in the last 3 years, a rare event. One other factor. Oil stocks are at arguably the best valuations ever and maybe the best sector valuation ever. The Russell small caps recently made new lows in its ongoing bear market, which after Friday, is maybe over. The Russell blew away the NASDAQ on Friday, in terms of gains.What happened on Friday? Well, the debt ceiling was kicked down the road as it always is and the Jobs report fooled everyone again This has been going on for about 9 months now, with almost everyone bearish and expecting a recession. The jobs market is actually hot. This was not predicted at all.I totally agree with people like Danny Moses, Guy Adami, Carter Worth and Dan Nathan that point out all the bad things as they do in this video, but does that mean we will crash, as they have been expecting for months? They do a good job of making the bear case, but then what happened? The next day the Russell broke out of that range they talked about containing it, on their chart. YouTube link to that will be in comments.So, will the economy fool everyone and not go into recession? Maybe, and sure has so far.To the last question Where Do Oil Stocks Go from Here? This one I am much surer of; in my opinion they will go into a historic bull market. I have already experienced one, having bought them heavily in 2020 COVID crash. Received several 10x and 20x movers and just about any oil stock did a 5x in that rally.Here is a happy story of what is possible in such bull markets in oil stocks. I bought Cardinal, a Canadian oil stock. Got a 20 bagger and now it has a 1% a month roughly dividend. Yes, that means I am roughly getting 200% yearly dividends now and have been getting them for a while. And in the last month have bought more Cardinal. At 1% dividend a month on a 4 PE stock with a CROIC of 30%, it is still a great deal. The valuations are better now than in 2020 for oil stocks. Back then they were in danger of going under, but dirt cheap. Now dirt cheap at higher prices, yet much higher safety with wonderful balance sheets and cash flows.These two charts show that oil stocks are dirt cheap and spending less on CapEx than ever before, as a percent of Cash Flow. This time is different, they are not overinvesting as they did every time before when oil went over $100. Again, link in comments.Eric Nuttal, who runs Canada's biggest oil stock fund, talked about the coming oil stock bull market in a recent video. About how buybacks can drive a $20 oil stocks to over $1 million a share, unless they go up greatly before the buyouts complete. Do not scoff, he is right. He makes the case for oil stocks and high cashflow oil stock buybacks so well in this video, I will not comment myself. The whole thing is worth viewing, but this link starts where he talks buybacks.On buybacks will do some math here. In this case if a stock started at $20 a share, $1 billion FCF and mkt cap of $3 billion = 150 million shares you will get to $1 billion a share in 3 years if 100% of FCF goes to buybacks and stock does not go up before then. If it rerates to 9x FCF after 1 year then was 3x FCF, 33% of stock removed = 100,000,000 shares and $9 billion market cap = $90 a share a 4.5 X gain in one year.Reality today June 2023 is the best, we have had big buybacks and prices have stayed about the same in last 12 months on oil stocks. Debt is way down, so they have more money for buybacks.So, let's go 1 more year at current prices. $1 billion FCF is spent buying back stock. That is 50% of stock left, so now just 50,000,000 shares left. Then it goes to 9 FCF (still cheaper than avg stock out there) so $9 billion mkt cap / 50,000,000 shares left = $180 a share, so a X gain. Pretty good.Let's go 1 more year. Let's say the market was as stupid as it was in 6-2022 to 6-2023 and price stays the same. That means the remaining 50,000,000 shares are bot back, except for just 1 share. Then it goes to 9 X FCF = $9 billion mkt cap and 1 share = $9 Billion a share. A 450 million times gain. This will not happen because eventually the market wakes up to how stupid it has been after 10?, 20?, 50? times increase in earnings per share, and it rerates the stock way higher, until it no longer is worth buying back. In fact, the company might sell some back for 20 times more than they bought it for, if it makes sense to. Also, if a company gets 2/3s of its stock back, then its EPS going forward, for every Q, will be 3 times higher.As an example of what can happen with buybacks with far inferior cashflows, and valuations is Teledyne. George Roberts, who worked alongside Singleton, described the experience like this:Henry was quoted as saying, with a laugh, “In October, 1972, we tendered for one million shares and 8.9 million came in. We took them all at $20 and figured it was a fluke, and that we couldn’t do it again. But instead of going up, our stock went down. So we kept tendering, first at $14 and then doing two bonds-for-stock swaps. Every time one tender was over the stock would go down and we’d tender again, and we’d get a new deluge. Then two more tenders at $18 and $40.”The first six buybacks were all in the period from 1972 to 1976. The market reacted adversely to this at first, not understanding what Henry was accomplishing. But as the number of shares went down and the company’s operating income continued to grow, the earnings per share increased rapidly and dramatically. In 1970, net income per share was $1.64. By 1975 it was $6.09 per share; in 1976, $10.79; and in 1977, $16.23 per share.With the first six stock buybacks, a total of some 22 million Teledyne share were repurchased, reducing the number of outstanding common shares to less than 12 million. A seventh stock buyback offer was made in 1980 and the final one in 1984, at the extraordinarily high price of $200 per share. This was about $30 above the current market price and eight million shares were bought back. By September of that year the stock had climbed to $302 per share and was the highest priced stock on the New York Stock Exchange.The total value of these buybacks was over $2.5 billion, and more than 85 percent of common shares were retired. Shares outstanding had dropped from 88,827,372 in 1971 to 22,564,756 in 1980. Henry also purchased another 5 percent of Teledyne shares on the open market at various times, bringing the buyback total in the years 1972-1984 to over 90 percent of the company’s shares.Singleton eventually paid off the debt used to buy back shares. By 1985, net income per share was $46.66. The buybacks created a compounding effect on earnings per share.Remember oil stocks that are doing, or about to do, buybacks are at about 3-7 times better valuations than Teledyne, so they can compound better. Teledyne was never in a position to buy back at a fast enough rate, so that all of their stock could be bought back in 3-4 years, just with free cash flow. So, Teledyne was not even close to being able to do what oil stocks can do today.An example is Cenovus. As Nuttal pointed out CVE has committed to 100% of FCF to go to buybacks soon, after debt drops. They can buy back all their stock in less than 4 years, unless the stock rerates higher. Teledyne was never even close to being capable to do that.We just got a kicker for oil stocks, one guessed was coming, just a matter of size.Sunday (Bloomberg) -- Oil advanced at the week’s open after Saudi Arabia said it will make an extra 1 million barrel-a-day supply cut in July, taking its production to the lowest level for several years following a slide in prices.West Texas Intermediate futures jumped almost 5% early in the session before paring some gains to trade near $74 a barrel. Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said he “will do whatever is necessary to bring stability to this market” following a tense OPEC+ meeting over the weekend.“The oil market now looks like it will be even tighter in the second half of the year,” ANZ Group Holdings Ltd. analysts Brian Martin and Daniel Hynes wrote in a note. “The move by Saudi Arabia is likely to come as a surprise.”

2023-07-24

0

TGT is a good buy imo

33 comments

2023-05-24

Target has gone down roughly 20+% in the last week and a half due to boycotts of their stores. These boycotts are in response to their LGBTQ line of products for June. Realistically these boycotts will not last a long period of time and only a small, very small amount of customers are actually boycotting the stores because the Average American is not that politically motivated.Classic example of an emotional market response to a realistically unaffecting event

2023-07-24

123

Disney’s set to write off $1.5 billion following streaming purge

66 comments

2023-05-24

Item 2.06 Material Impairments.As previously announced, The Walt Disney Company (together with the subsidiaries through which its various businesses are actually conducted, the “Company”) is in the process of reviewing content, primarily on its direct-to-consumer (“DTC”) services, for alignment with a strategic change in approach to content curation and as a result is removing certain content from its platforms. On May 26, 2023, the Company removed certain produced content from its DTC services. As a result, the Company will record a $1.5 billion impairment charge in its fiscal third quarter financial statements to adjust the carrying value of these content assets to fair value. The Company is continuing its review and currently anticipates additional produced content will be removed from its DTC and other platforms, largely during the remainder of its third fiscal quarter. As a result, the Company currently estimates it may incur further impairment charges of up to approximately $0.4 billion related to produced content. The Company does not expect any material cash expenditures in connection with the impairment charges related to produced content. In addition, the Company may terminate certain license agreements for the right to use content on its platforms, which would result in the removal of licensed content from its platforms and lead to impairment and/or contract termination charges as well as cash payments. The Company currently expects that any such charges and payments related to licensed content would be meaningfully less than the impairment charges related to produced content.Source: https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001744489/000174448923000107/dis-20230526.htm

2023-07-24

0

A tip that I heard right when I started trading that has helped keep me sane and grow as an investor

9 comments

2023-05-24

One tip that is often recommended to new traders and investors is to focus on the long-term and avoid making impulsive decisions based on short-term market fluctuations or emotions. This approach can help you stay calm and make more rational investment decisions. Here are a few key points that can help you maintain a long-term perspective:Develop a solid investment plan: Create a well-thought-out investment plan that aligns with your financial goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon. Having a clear strategy in place can help you stay focused and avoid making hasty decisions based on short-term market movements.Avoid chasing quick gains: It's common for investors to be tempted by the allure of quick profits. However, chasing short-term gains often involves higher risks and can lead to poor decision-making. Instead, focus on identifying quality investments with long-term growth potential.Embrace a disciplined approach: Stick to your investment plan and avoid making impulsive trades based on market noise or emotions. Keep in mind that markets can be volatile in the short term, but tend to trend upwards over the long term. By staying disciplined, you can ride out market fluctuations and benefit from long-term growth.Diversify your portfolio: Diversification is a key principle in investing. By spreading your investments across different asset classes, industries, and geographic regions, you can reduce risk and potentially enhance returns. This can help protect your portfolio from the impact of individual stock or sector-specific events.Stay informed and educate yourself: Continuously educate yourself about investing and stay updated on market trends and economic indicators. This knowledge can help you make more informed decisions and avoid being swayed by short-term market noise.Remember, investing is a journey that requires patience, discipline, and continuous learning. By focusing on the long-term and following a well-defined investment plan, you can increase your chances of success as an investor.

2023-07-24

59

Can the government take my stocks if I have never used them?

86 comments

2023-05-24

My dad bought me (25f) and my siblings stocks when we were younger. My siblings have a little more than me, but I have about 17k worth of stocks (McDonalds and Disney i think). My mom just told me that my brother and I need to sign some documents otherwise the government will take them because we have never used them….. idk I just feel weird about the whole thing. Only my brother and I but not my younger sister? Can anyone explain any of this? Also, I had completely forgotten about these stocks until my mom just casually mentioned them (also weird that she has not mentioned them to me even though I am a adult now). I saw the statements though so I do believe her about the stocks, but I don’t want to sign anything until I know whats going on. Also my dad is no longer in our lives and it is impossible to ask him what is going on. We live in VA btw.

2023-07-24

0

Whats the best options platform to use for trader in UK?

2 comments

2023-05-24

I'm looking to start learning options and take advantage of options spread strategies as im now more motivated by some of the YouTube channels i watch start to cover them, but the problem i face is im not sure which is the best options platform to use. I'm in the UK and am not too familiar with the go to platforms for options contracts does anyone have any recommendations?

2023-07-24

156

Ready to ditch the fax machine and embrace the future of faxing? With eFax, you can send and receive faxes right from your computer, or smartphone.

https://alb.reddit.com/cr?za=wPKorAm6M_3k-ygqOQUE1zjZxjO66rGwJh7rhm_FloSXrAm98u-5yhxmq7AHWvE934x2dzA7gJFYp6vBf7yDSiSOmOjyVYmlVUGXWosU1O57a6S3g5iOTyJkl5JqIqAAhv4Cu0H1CQ7mGNTn2y6jI37XS4fZbygAcluSFTiU7IrRRlwNZzyJOxWRbwCjuQaQz5d2A979JSDXPPvLjq3v33n24priiPrhDFp9RJq5umAgAC2lqAQqN3VKLAQGpG8rlEGTuhxrQbDXKRxBtVrRCcwnTHI2g9GmoGhcBJjFZdm4DO5qTEaQFF69TjR3Rn8gmJvS7ca_BkCPeZN8POzgK09r4U3jRCTznfNkwQBU4lsTpB9944OTx335EY64OvFXrMW6tj_y&zp=wpUn4rbKeiWoz72aZubfs3w8LAkgtC5_Ij7qHQN6aI91VLkCTwicEyOO31KiV9n5Ksnb4TD5iQ7tBrkutiGE3T-EIJlbQNje09YoR2q2E0ApoVryRYS7KdEhsABbERmwvhSeQBjZmzL3SIbIBkSteUHkxBis_b7okKHbYkHNJi6WSqOQig7-WSc1hyZZzp2D3wFZ5P7UQVFYn7O1nTyJv7MMleuSSvXbkw1BnOMBJoLrsKYWKZHjkqE

0 comments

2023-07-24

13

Why do companies like Kroger and Albertson's have much lower valuation multiples than Walmart, Target, and Costco?

25 comments

2023-05-24

A reason that comes to mind is defensibility, but given that these companies are all consumer defensive in the first place, there shouldn't be a significant difference. Furthermore, the valuation multiple gap is so large that I don't see what could justify this.

2023-07-24

0

Does anyone have any information or opinions on where Fed rates will go in the long term?

67 comments

2023-05-24

As in, where would the Fed have rates if we were in "normal" economic times? Before 2000, 5% was considered a low Fed rate. Now, it's considered extremely high. Where will rates be when the dust settles after the Fed's fight with inflation?Personally, I think that we will go back down to a rate that floats between 1-2%. My theory is that we entered a new economic paradigm in the 2000s. Before, the average person relied on traditional bank accounts to preserve savings/retirement funds and didn't have access to capital markets. Brokerage accounts were for the elite. Now, the average person has fairly easy access to capital markets directly, through online brokerage accounts, or indirectly, through 401k and IRA providers that allow contributions to equities.Because of this, I think that the Fed will continue to keep rates low in order to encourage investment in capital markets and drive economic development more than would happen with higher interest rates.Thoughts? Does anyone have any options and, hopefully, any evidence/information on where the Fed plans to put rates in the long term?

2023-07-24

2

Does Google have AI Hype potential?

40 comments

2023-05-24

Should i hold my position long term or sell now for 20% profit? With a 1y target estimate of 129$ I'm thinking of selling my position and relocating those funds somewhere else.Any advice is appreciated.

2023-07-24

0

Investing in Graphic Packaging Holding ($GPK) five years ago would have delivered you a 86% gain

3 comments

2023-05-24

Graphic Packaging Holding's share price has climbed 69% in five years, easily topping the market return of 46% (ignoring dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 12% in the last year, including dividends.With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long-term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).During five years of share price growth, Graphic Packaging Holding achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 16% per year. This EPS growth is higher than the 11% average annual increase in the share price. So it seems the market isn't so enthusiastic about the stock these days.What About Dividends?When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture of stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Graphic Packaging Holding, it has had a TSR of 86% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!A Different PerspectiveIt's nice to see that Graphic Packaging Holding shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 12% over the last year. Of course, that includes the dividend. Having said that, the five-year TSR of 13% a year, is even better. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance.

2023-07-24

44

Realize gains and play safe, or just forget about it and come back in 10 years?

38 comments

2023-05-24

I’ve got a bunch of big names that have done well in the last couple months, Stocks like apple, Microsoft, nvidia, meta, and google. should I take the W and put it into VTI/VFV, or just pretend it didn’t happen and come back to the stocks in 10 years. Nothing crazy, just a few houndred bucks between the bunch of ‘em, but I’d just DCA back into an ETF.I’m young and don’t care about making money for the next 10 years.

2023-07-24

9

Why are emerging market ETF's such trainwrecks?

23 comments

2023-05-24

India, Brazil, Vietnam, China, etc. All these countries have impressive growth, some with the potential to surpass the US and EU in GDP. Yet, every emerging markets ETF I see loses money hand over fist.How is it that American and European markets make such good money, despite slow (relative) growth compared to these rapidly growing countries/regions?

2023-07-24

6

Fiserv sees increasing attention from equities analysts as stock targets rise

0 comments

2023-05-24

On Friday, June 3, 2023, $FISV opened at $112.75 per share. The company’s debt-to-equity ratio is currently at 0.71; with a quick ratio of 1.08 and a current ratio of 1.08. Its 52-week low as $87.03 and its high was $122.39, with a market cap of $70.82 billion.Fiserv has been receiving increasing attention from equities analysts in recent months, with several raising their price targets on the company’s stock. Tigress Financial increased theirs to $160 from $154 while Truist Financial raised theirs to $130 from $105, and finally, Credit Suisse Group raised theirs to $130 from $115.Royal Bank of Canada also upped their price target but only slightly from $123 to $131 but still gave the stock an “outperform” rating alongside Raymond James and Credit Suisse Group.Fiserv presently has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” with the current average price target standing at $132.16.Among institutional investors and hedge funds who made changes to their positions in FISV are ST Germain D J Co., Atlas Capital Advisors LLC, Sunbelt Securities Inc., Colonial Trust Advisors, and Coppell Advisory Solutions Corp; all totaling 88.79% of the company’s stock.Fiserv recently issued its quarterly earnings report on April 25th with business services achieving revenue upwards of $4.55 billion during that time frame as compared to last year’s same quarter ending in April where they earned EPS (earnings per share) of about 1.40 versus this year’s Q1 earning them approximately EPS amounting to around 1.58 beating consensus estimates of $1.56 by two cents.Investors are continuing to keep a watchful eye on Fiserv as it continues to grow and expand with an increasing focus on nurturing strategic partnerships with other financial industry players. Despite the ongoing pattern from the pandemic, investors continue to see growth in fintech industries and authorities indicate that they have no signs of stopping any time soon.

2023-07-24

Vote

⚡️yallo fat plus 63% off 🎉 All unlimited in Switzerland! 3GB Data and 300 min calls in EU, USA & CAN

https://alb.reddit.com/cr?za=blkioSZzQmH_srWomizpuhfcz9qQvRAso3V52vjHdDr6rdrbd_FLh4qOLqhSQnEYKhcBATVVeGDUOk5fyJG6kaJdJ8YZCWqAReXBXgQKY28xtCKIRb1izDUqoRE0_fExwBVCL5CQodzu9LFWyW0Oi8yPLkLvTsKK76QCZhq0JkD4A5EAb-xH2WiLhjE7oN1OhZDNMCtbB3b8UenuTMc1rVF_QAgqgJyscoX0uS8XCbplD2GeheKMXbyIR4G6J4RoHhK-jEnjjBoO99bJUrZqPOJduP_arl_yEJCUY4QNvNkbMwtSd3dPcqt2RNsqDnwyNNYbyNes6ehEkv-LJRPCjEtaaWmD80TDv4IHtpgpcxTd0tuWEsbNWmheIcob-HzVfc-ySBpFw70&zp=4ABllXLWRNVSWKqLbn11F3xwuUQi0L5bSBzBwkkG4K9hsMsay6yIEa0UyxSbZ-AHzrAG47WamzuEMHk3sMIsMxI5kas9HGNtdMPzbrWZJcqBuChgQcUDZmgCL8uS6yMGX6v3eQ8OaV9R7vEzNJtdd0b2w6iETX1oJRYY72gJJr7DMJHsD8IfbeM7m-CtV3bKtnqDJm0Y3kFo-0z0qm1WKLYTR5HF_DL4R7I5e0FXMZyySaKp-uP5grAzgRs-7ZiaybQlkRFaVKgG4wi0HuU0yxLU

0 comments

2023-07-24

12

What is the best strategy to invest for the ones who don’t have time to follow the market?

28 comments

2023-05-24

I've recently begun daily recurring investments in big tech companies, but I'm unsure if this strategy is still good for someone unable to closely monitor the market and act swiftly. Could you advise on the optimal investment approach? Additionally, do you recommend utilizing any automated tools?

2023-07-24

90

Trillion-Dollar Treasury Vacuum Coming for Wall Street Rally

93 comments

2023-05-24

This will be yet another drain on dwindling liquidity as bank deposits are raided to pay for it — and Wall Street is warning that markets aren’t ready.The negative impact could easily dwarf the after-effects of previous standoffs over the debt limit. The Federal Reserve’s program of quantitative tightening has already eroded bank reserves, while money managers have been hoarding cash in anticipation of a recession.JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou estimates a flood of Treasuries will compound the effect of QT on stocks and bonds, knocking almost 5% off their combined performance this year. Citigroup Inc. macro strategists offer a similar calculus, showing a median drop of 5.4% in the S&P 500 over two months could follow a liquidity drawdown of such magnitude, and a 37 basis-point jolt for high-yield credit spreads.The sales, set to begin Monday, will rumble through every asset class as they claim an already shrinking supply of money: JPMorgan estimates a broad measure of liquidity will fall $1.1 trillion from about $25 trillion at the start of 2023.“This is a very big liquidity drain,” says Panigirtzoglou. “We have rarely seen something like that. It’s only in severe crashes like the Lehman crisis where you see something like that contraction.”https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trillion-dollar-treasury-vacuum-coming-135944792.html

2023-07-24

0

Anyone got a view on these high yielders?

7 comments

2023-05-24

All, was chatting with a friend yesterday, and shes holding these income stocks.DPST => Direxion Daily Regional Banks Bull 3X Shares, trading at less than book, 4.5% dividend.EFC => Ellington Financial Inc., 14.5% dividendORC => Orchid Island Capital, Inc. 18.7% dividendQYLD => Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call ETF, 11.7% yieldIts not clear if these companies can sustain their dividends. They might, maybe/maybe not.Anyone got a view on any of these?

2023-07-24

943

Take-Two CEO refuses to engage in 'hyperbole' says AI will never replace human genius

250 comments

2023-05-24

Amidst the gloom around the rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and its potential to decimate the jobs market, Strauss Zelnick, CEO of Take-Two (parent company of 2K Games, Rockstar Games, and Private Division, Zynga and more) has delivered a refreshing stance on the limitations of the technology – and why it will never truly replace human creativity.During a recent Take-Two Interactive investor Q&A, following the release of the company’s public financial reports for FY23, Zelnick reportedly fielded questions about Take-Two operations, future plans, and how AI technology will be implemented going forward.While Zelnick was largely ‘enthusiastic’ about AI, he made clear that advances in the space were not necessarily ground-breaking, and claimed the company was already a leader in technologies like AI and machine learning.‘Despite the fact artificial intelligence is an oxymoron, as is machine learning, this company’s been involved in those activities, no matter what words you use to describe them, for its entire history and we’re a leader in that space,’ Zelnick explained, per PC Gamer.In refusing to engage in what he calls ‘hyperbole’, Zelnick makes an important point about the modern use of AI. It has always existed, in some form, and recent developments have only improved its practicality and potential output.‘While the most recent developments in AI are surprising and exciting to many, they’re exciting to us but not at all surprising,’ Zelnick said. ‘Our view is that AI will allow us to do a better job and to do a more efficient job, you’re talking about tools and they are simply better and more effective tools.’Zelnick believes improvements in AI technologies will allow the company to become more efficient in the long-term, but he rejected the implication that AI technology will make it easier for the company to create better video games – making clear this was strictly the domain of humans.‘I wish I could say that the advances in AI will make it easier to create hits, obviously it won’t,’ Zelnick said. ‘Hits are created by genius. And data sets plus compute plus large language models does not equal genius. Genius is the domain of human beings and I believe will stay that way.’This statement, from the CEO of one of the biggest game publishers in the world, is very compelling – and seemingly at-odds with sentiment from other major game companies.Source: https://www.pcgamer.com/take-two-ceo-says-ai-created-hit-games-are-a-fantasy-genius-is-the-domain-of-human-beings-and-i-believe-will-stay-that-way/

2023-07-24

25

Stock recommendations similar to ASTS?

37

2023-05-24

Just for fun, I'm looking for stocks with some sort of exciting technology or even exciting idea behind them that is high risk but super high reward if they pay off. Please give a short line of what makes them exciting along with their ticker

2023-07-24

6

Best Financial Data API? Resources

8

2023-05-24

What is the best financial data API that you have used if you've used any at all? I am looking for recommendations for a good financial data API, ideally it should have historical fundamentals and price data going back 20+ years on global equities, small/micro caps, delisted companies and that is well maintained.

2023-07-24

375

1969 Recession Started when Unemployment Rate Was 3.5%

139

2023-05-24

When unemployment rate hit 3.4% this year, the headline was saying it's the lowest since 1969, so I looked at what happened in 1969 and after. Turns out we had a mild recession (Dec 1969 - Nov 1970) that lasted 11 months and contracted GDP by 0.6%, and raised unemployment rate to 6.1% from 3.4%. SP500 fell about 37% peak to trough. Fed started hiking rate in Oct 1967 at 3.9% rate, paused in May 1968 at 6.1%, and started cutting by 0.5%, and resumed hiking in Nov 1968, paused in Aug 1969 at 9.1%. Didn't start cutting hard until Feb 1970, 3 months after recession started. Unemployment was almost 4% in late 1967, dropped to 3.4% by late 1968, and stayed there until Sept 1969, rose to 3.7% for 2 months, then dropped to 3.5% in Nov 1969 for 2 months, then rose to 3.9%, 4.2%, 4.4%, 4.6%, 4.8%, 4.9%, 5% by Jul 1970, and 6.1% by Dec 1970. It seems like once it goes sharply up, the momentum kept going. Inflation started rising in early 1965 (3% in 1965, 4.3% in 1968, peaked at 5.3% in 1969), higher than the average rate of 2% in previous years. Cause was high military spending from Vietnam War and personal consumption after the 1960 crisis. Both government and the Fed had expansionary policy at the time. Demand accelerated much faster than supply, approximately double of US GDP potential and supply side was unable to maintain economy at equilibrium, leading to higher prices. Money supply growth went from 2% in 1964 to 7.3% in 1968. Gov tried to control inflation by reducing spending and raising taxes in Jun 1968. Many economists feared that the measures were too drastic and might lead to a recession. The Fed hiked rates like mentioned above. In 1H 1969, growth in spending moderated only slightly from a year earlier. Growth in production, slowed in early 1969. Even with cutback in total output, employment continued to rise and unemployment remained low. Productivity growth slowed. Q3 1969 showed more slowing in econ activity. Consumer prices rose at 5.1% annual from Jul to Oct 1969, down from 5.9% in 1H 1969. Personal income grew at 4.5% from Aug to Oct 1969, down from 8.8% in the previous 8 months. In Dec 1969, during the start of the recession, there was belief that inflation would still be sticky throughout 1970 and for some time after. Economist believed more slowing would be ahead, but unsure of how much. TLDR : this time period feels like the summer 1969. Fed is close to pausing rate hikes, unemployment has stayed at historical low for about 9 months. There's some slowing in econ activity, and more anticipated slowing ahead, but most people think the inflation fight is far from over. 1969 recession was caused by the Fed hiking rates to fight inflation due to wartime excessive spending and supply unable to keep up with extremely high demand. 1969 was a mild recession, similar to many economist forecasts and even the Fed's staff. People already feared the actions taken to fight inflation might be too much in 1968, more than a year before the recession started. I welcome any discussion and perspective on both sides, but please refrain from dismissing something completely just because of a different viewpoint than yours. Edit : this is a disclaimer. I'm not an economist. Just an average guy who did some reading.

2023-07-24

43

New Ocean Update for The Wandering Village

https://alb.reddit.com/cr?za=GrD2-KwfkEVIsy7tWTMorX6uOTdLkJjpJqZUdyHly8fwoS5FW4XTgTt-H44XilIBntm8o06vdoFuQZbtrPYwQwx5eAtljnFzRuF34j-uBIPRXAod6dyHRe6QLy1ZpKvloF8IElJ04U1l4yIZV6dQEWipV2CChLhsDFYhe9TofWwyO85udVf5-i0qePvm_BgN95vD2AbgO38ky2rZLAT4StgjRmAvBTnRpK0VDeZ1BtYqJS881EE8qGvbxWiT1O_p83TBNXSL3koCGnCdlKHyR6JkCrQSExzcLo5KX7PLtO5CnW0nQ9QM6fW_2FaIK0waoHqMnufAgp9bLgxzCzQzgfuU4ZQPHdl_4ykuyQrqLME5U-g7QKaXl7DWdkgMD13Vdg--&zp=l2kTCG00cSZHF-2SL2BhlvYSIa_6kGXqP6NxbyHtug0zw89Y9Fyl2BbROhTDUmpHNE656dorJrxNWdfxlc94ycyGfR30GqqYREcwVumEqiyWF8Bf4t7unJE3UZ79rH2i4lDGyWOelVFZoxrZXTf-SpYJot7wSVpXRFi6BgrNF1Q3qOzDNmvFYrO0dZ4iXnQZwnP7Hl2WGLcBWQiL1y_QGkhlGYiK

14

2023-07-24

0

Why it might not make sense to buy Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. ($FIS) for its upcoming dividend. Company Discussion

1 Comment

2023-05-24

Some investors rely on dividends for growing their wealth, and if you're one of those dividend sleuths, you might be intrigued to know that Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. (NYSE:FIS) is about to go ex-dividend in just 4 days. The ex-dividend date is one business day before the record date, which is the cut-off date for shareholders to be present on the company's books to be eligible for a dividend payment. The ex-dividend date is important as the process of settlement involves two full business days. So if you miss that date, you would not show up on the company's books on the record date. This means that investors who purchase Fidelity National Information Services' shares on or after the 8th of June will not receive the dividend, which will be paid on the 23rd of June. The company's next dividend payment will be US$0.52 per share. Last year, in total, the company distributed US$2.08 to shareholders. Based on the last year's worth of payments, Fidelity National Information Services stock has a trailing yield of around 3.8% on the current share price of $55.38. Dividends are an important source of income to many shareholders, but the health of the business is crucial to maintaining those dividends. As a result, readers should always check whether Fidelity National Information Services has been able to grow its dividends, or if the dividend might be cut. Dividends are typically paid from company earnings. If a company pays more in dividends than it earned in profit, then the dividend could be unsustainable. Fidelity National Information Services paid a dividend last year despite being unprofitable. This might be a one-off event, but it's not a sustainable state of affairs in the long run. Have Earnings And Dividends Been Growing? Businesses with shrinking earnings are tricky from a dividend perspective. If earnings fall far enough, the company could be forced to cut its dividend. Fidelity National Information Services reported a loss last year, and the general trend suggests its earnings have also been declining in recent years, making us wonder if the dividend is at risk. Many investors will assess a company's dividend performance by evaluating how much the dividend payments have changed over time. In the last 10 years, Fidelity National Information Services has lifted its dividend by approximately 10% a year on average. The Bottom Line Should investors buy Fidelity National Information Services for the upcoming dividend? It's hard to get past the idea of Fidelity National Information Services paying a dividend despite reporting a loss over the past year - especially when the general trend in its earnings also looks to be negative. These characteristics don't generally lead to outstanding dividend performance, and investors may not be happy with the results of owning this stock for its dividend. With that being said, if you're still considering Fidelity National Information Services as an investment, you'll find it beneficial to know what risks this stock is facing. https://uk.sports.yahoo.com/news/why-might-not-sense-buy-120835879.html?guccounter=1

2023-07-24

266

“Not a good time to hold S&P”. Liquidity crisis after debt deal will send stocks down. Industry News

303

2023-05-24

2023-07-24

1

NVDA looks to have a blow off top. Company Analysis

46

2023-05-24

Pretty straight forward technical analysis.NVDA trading at this valuation doesn't make sense. I think its headed to $275. Everyone keeps talking about AI and how its a Iphone moment, its not. AI has been around for years. Chat GPT is just a new toy. AI like all technologies will continue to advance but i don't think NVDA will be the primary benefactor from continued technological advancement in the space. So i think this company is way overbought. The price should level off this month as rates move higher, inflation remains sticky and the treasury sells massive amount of bonds draining market liquidity. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/blowofftop.asp

2023-07-24

0

SMTC - Short Interest Glitch?

3 comments

2023-05-24

I was scanning the earnings calendar on Seeking Alpha and was looking at SMTC. They are showing short interest at 12,789.07%, how is this possible? I’m not aware of any RSs that would make it such an insane short %. Does anyone know why it’s displaying this way and what actual short interest is?Disclaimer: I do not own this stock; I am considering making a play on it if it’s truly shorted by over 12k %.

2023-07-24

1

2M+ investors from 200+ countries/territories trade on 150+ global exchanges in 26 currencies. Your capital is at risk.

https://alb.reddit.com/cr?za=oMOUyCKqqBu0nFWeHg815_bZuvi8V7XrowwYM4vWsE7T_jna6hPPK0OYHinTTZgl1HRfe6nBd2IjJyWY_dmCPSjHidlJiKNP4bpB-wO8qDNybmd8CiXMZEwomFwPNf4ZltVdti8VyqVb8FyCxDxT33jk6cDYUvtWvqKvoy1aSt4F1goqfZlupmzDhfJJ-1v-3xm3F4vw4X6NaI5gnaRQf-7L6fpTtirgAIn3gR08RW2e9_KZg6JDwkg9N_-ipAxI90MBc83KiP_EvdlVIB1iIYlmFk6mp2XOabHzsQ9wjg8pfPPfYF6QhDslssr7mvow53PTKCoh4L3aSwdO71HSH3SLy9FN3SkzfdaPilq593znfdMem0KO6K_RHe2vfQXwoBnpYTwv&zp=l3tQYqq2QSVF6Ky4Pp6LmIj_Uek8hcNloGU2NQjVuOGOlS4mwwjgkzcuQlDfaI48kpgKcL2AGt-Vt7w6oPO3sG5b06sboukL6KzF2BinsDTr57eGYeJPiZhZvMSRA8mgyuDwKtYEYzm84zqHfFPHueBMjc-dFhmQGZi2GoU7og4-7uFG_AWk58Cj7W5WJUALqVcgGBCTMX59MgsKvqJznRs7G7pn9uVArc-xXKzTpEsyQ6Jj-j-0

0 comments

2023-07-24

5

Short analysis and Bull Case for UP (Union Pacific)

11 comments

2023-05-24

Union Pacific is a stock I have been following for a while, and I plan on adding to my position, since I see a good upside potential (over the long term) and moderate risk, which I can evaluate better than most future developments in other sectors (tech, luxury, cars, oil...)MY ASSUMPTIONS:The American economy will keep growing over the long term, (Buffet, "never bet against America"), since its fundamentals are incredibly solid (capital availability, population growth, stability and confiedence, skilled workforce, lots of value added industries, reserve currency status...)Increased Trade with Mexico and the re-industralisation of the US will cause an increased volume of goods and raw materials to be transported among the North American continent. I see no reason why the amount of good transported by rail (chemicals, cars, raw materials, fertilizer, coal and renewables materials...) should decrease in the future, and may even substitute some of the trade that currently takes place by shipping (shorter supply chains).Railroad companies have high profit margins (25-30%) and relatively law operating expenses, making them quite resilient to inflation (which may even allow them to increase their margins by charging higher priceDistruptive innovation and new entries are unlikely because building other rail tracks next to UP's would be expensive and would not be profitable for other companies. I also don't beilieve that any new technology (drones, self driving trucks, hyperloops or whatever...) are going to be cost competitive over rail in the foreseable future.Based on these assumptions, the business should grow based on favourable circumstances, without a need for strong investment and huge capital expenditures, which leaves lots of cash available for dividends and buybacks.SOME NUMBERSThe price-earning ratio for the company is around 18, which is in line with S&P 500. Thus, if current conditions persist I can expect a long term return of AT LEAST 5% (compounded), which is roughly the amount shareholders receive annualy (dividend plus buybacks).The amount of dividends has increased steadely year on year (https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/UNP/union-pacific/dividend-yield-history ),while the numbers of outstanding shares is falling down (https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/unp/union-pacific/shares-outstanding)3. The company is becoming more and more efficent. I believe that operating expenses (employees paychecks and especially fuel costs (which accounted for 3.5bln last year) will decrease in the future, or at least grow at a slower rate than inflation, making the company even more profitable.https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/UNP/financials?p=UNPRELEVANT RISKSDEBT: The management seems to be really gready, and ahs been taking on more and more debt to increase dividends and buybacks. While I believe interest payments are manageble (1.2bln last year, likely to increase in the future...) , and this gamble is likely to payoff, this is a risk to be considered.LOSS OF MARKET SHARE: The management seems more focused on buybacks rather than re-investing into the business, and is losing market share to its only real competitor (BNSF, hold by Berkshire Hataway). While the trend is slow, and I didn't find data on the recent developments (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/comparing-results-unp-bnsf-162040284.html, is up to 2019) I find this to be the biggest risk faced by the company. I also have a position in Berkshire (B shares, the one for the plebs), which should mitigate this specific risk.UNIONS AND BAD PRESS: not a huge risk IMO, salaries expenses are low, and train incidents seems to be unconsequential for the company, it could lead to problems or higher cost in the future.CONCLUSIONI believe Union Pacific is a company that will give me good returns over the long term, and that is now fairly priced. I see a lot of things going for them, and the problems they face (loss of competitiveness/ falling market share/ rising debt) don't seem that serious. I would like to hear other opinions, things I am missing, and your take on the company.

2023-07-24

105

Index changes announced

16 comments

2023-05-24

S&P has announced their changes their their indexes.PANW is the big addition to the S&P 500. It will replace DISH in the index. This is usually a nice bounce for involved names as funds have to buy them to rebalance their index holdings.Here's the full list.https://finance.yahoo.com/news/palo-alto-networks-set-p-224600857.htmlOne of my personal favorites, UFPT, is joining the S&P 600 small cap index.

2023-07-24

17

Have large cities seen a decrease in foot traffic at shopping centers/busy areas?

52 comments

2023-05-24

On Reddit I’m seeing many videos of people posting large shopping areas (outdoor malls, buys popular streets with stores, etc) and it’s dead, no people. They are stating it’s all over big cities like Dallas, San Fran, etc. other commenters are saying the same for their city. Is this true? Are you seeing this? Or are they just taking videos at the least non busy time? I’m asking this to gauge an idea if consumers are spending less. I’m in Nebraska and it’s busy everywhere. People don’t seem to be slowing their spending. But in 2007/08 it took a while longer for the recession to hit here. Could this be a sign?

2023-07-24

1

ELi5 version of refilling treasury account

3 comments

2023-05-24

I saw this was asked on this forum, so here it is:Your friends Tom & John (stock market) tell you if you lend them 10 of your car toys, they might or might not give you 1 or 2 extra cars back next year but they might also break a few & don't even give you your 10 cars back!Your daddy (Treasury Bills) on the other hand, promises you if you give him your 10 cars, he will keep them for you & 100% buy you 1 new toy car by the end of the year so you will have 11.You know your friends can be as*holes & your dad has never broken his promise, who would you give your cars to?

2023-07-24

1

Nio Stock Discussion

17 comments

2023-05-24

Hello, I wanted to make a stock analysis on Nio company but there are a lot of missing info for me who is a absolute beginner in investing. I will use Graham and warren buffet technique to invest long term. What do you suggest me before investing and what do you think about company Nio?

2023-07-24

17

Adobe price analysis

20 comments

2023-05-24

Has anyone done an analysis of Adobe? I know tech is kinda peaking and AI is a buzz word, but they seem to have some really cool AI features they are adding to their products. Does it still have room to grow?

2023-07-24

1.4k

Amazon Is in Talks to Offer Free Mobile Service to US Prime Members

352 comments

2023-05-24

2023-07-24

156

Ready to ditch the fax machine and embrace the future of faxing? With eFax, you can send and receive faxes right from your computer, or smartphone.

https://alb.reddit.com/cr?za=o05YEO0cqVGb0AxzR_Iq09Ywu9F9eQcM2AiDzXk5CDqwZMWM3fclWktvv_MqKkxWtr1hekT6P_uMOUChhghPmnulMMm7D4r0WLYIWEx8z6DFbaPzQll4CoaVwMnKjWyunDTY5tJTDu7VG_foj7DjzwEgdbGc2gB-arqWxzhL4mR54lv6SxYx_HyoagIVfu92B2y-W1siwUFh27mmSzpOrrmjeNlhTEv_yXQin-nCn5mCkkc8rmxZ6tA0Eyc-DeZaBFBDydqJNgY81YBJOTQkMQD2ONtSDBpjxFPTvclxUgozp4Epyqprvwou6zOWloDoo7_0eLpUkQcQiZJSpE81-k03SMCcBCWzt3G4mE3GGsk8c4FpK4accNSxv2RUCi182zO7-FrR&zp=Qxa0zIvvKBdR7Wwkq205IrKVMS-zEXKQFSIHQIZHJ7vwHeQO3ZX0N8E4Jq-dhlS8DXWl6qX1ZuwB_YoBHy4RwZw_3tiiHo-Q5NPU2Pik8QSjiAWL54zs76mpbxZCMvJI1oouKc6Zw9C6B6WI1_LaC3VP3tmUIACcd20lqd-jtcAUnTl_O8AjG0LRcmjw1mbmxAza0zcb0F3duFKOeqpOQdH7Uod3fPXth7ZfBwiJ5A11dbe_zkYXN34

0 comments

2023-07-24

3

$CCL discussion

12 comments

2023-05-24

Based on Carnivals 8K/Financial Statements they released in April they stated they had $8.1B in liquidity, they have over $50B in assets, and around $34B in debt. Rough figures, their valuation is a lot higher than the less than $16B its sitting at right now. Their sales are back to near 2019 levels, and they’re going into their peak season. They removed the dividend payout after covid dip, I have no reason to think this, but I wonder if they were to bring that back, it would secure a number of investors and institutions. What am I missing? I am a current share holder, and Im not encouraging anyone to buy, I am just curious what bulls/bears think about this one. Open to all positions, and I hope we all bank on this one one way or the other! Or both!

2023-07-24

308

Aswath Damodaran says many trading today are on "an extraordinarily dangerous pathway".

100 comments

2023-05-24

ChatGPT was prompted to create a question that would “annoy” legendary valuation professor at NYU, Damodaran. ChatGPT asked: "Can you give me a hot stock tip that will make me rich quickly, without any research or understanding of the company’s fundamentals?"Damodaran – a man whose life and career are built on a calculated understanding of investing fundamentals – was amused, but admitted he hears similar questions frequently. He responded to such investors:They miss the essence of investing. You don’t invest to get rich. You invest to preserve and grow wealth. I think the minute you think of investing as a pathway to getting rich, you set yourself up for all kinds of mistakes. You overreach. You overbet. Because that’s the way you get rich. You gamble.I think we need to redefine investing. Investing is about preserving and growing wealth, which means if you’re a doctor, go back and do your job. Earn your income. That’s going to be at the heart of your investing. If you’re spending most of your time as a doctor looking through the stock pages trying to pick stocks, your wealth is not growing. Your investing can be great, but it does not pay off.So I think that it’s much more common than we accept. They’re traders. They’re not investors. They want to trade their way to riches.And they look at success stories. There’s a selection bias. Now you have YouTube videos of people who got rich in 5 years by trading. And you use those as role models. It’s an extraordinarily dangerous pathway you’re on because history suggests sooner or later you’re going to leave that casino with nothing in your pocket.https://bestinterest.blog/an-extraordinarily-dangerous-path/

2023-07-24

0

Intel (INTC) is Underrated, Nvidia is Overrated

47 comments

2023-05-24

There's no such thing as a bad company, just a bad price. And all the "AI" stocks are overpriced except for one.Intel price to Sales ratio of 2, while AMD is at 8 Nvidia is at 38 (lmao)Current gen CPUs still competitive with AMD despite AMD's node advantage (shows superior design)First gen GPUs (ARC) competitive with last gen Nvidia/AMD, next gen will likely be better with driver updatesThey finally brought back a REAL engineer, Pat Gangsta Gelsinger, to lead the company.Nvidia already testing out Intel's fabs for making their next gen chipsThey have the US government funding their fab constructionIf/when Taiwan gets invaded, TSMC will fall under Chinese control and Intel be the only western company that can make AI chips. Nvidia and AMD will be begging them for fab capacityThey say to sell the pickaxes to the gold rush. The pickaxe for AI will be the cutting edge chips, and that means Intel. Even if they don't win at making GPUs and end up selling their capacity to Nvidia.

2023-07-24

17

/r/Stocks Weekend Discussion Saturday - Jun 03, 2023

104 comments

2023-05-24

This is the weekend edition of our stickied discussion thread. Discuss your trades / moves from last week and what you're planning on doing for the week ahead.Some helpful links:Finviz for charts, fundamentals, and aggregated news on individual stocksBloomberg market newsStreetInsider news:Market Check - Possibly why the market is doing what it's doing including sudden spikes/dipsReuters aggregated - Global newsIf you have a basic question, for example "what is EPS," then google "investopedia EPS" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned.Please discuss your portfolios in the Rate My Portfolio sticky..See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.

2023-07-24

0

Software that records how the market did and stimulates it for training?

5 comments

2023-05-24

Hello guys, does anyone know a software that records days of market movement and can simulate option trading in those recordings? I'd love to learn how to use options with fake money on a Saturday but trading on a Friday or Monday, If that makes sense.I've seen and downloaded a good amount of market simulations but they only follow the market IRL and don't support options.

2023-07-24

77

$TTWO (Take-Two) investment plan for GTA 6 release

75 comments

2023-05-24

Any ideas on how to play the GTA6 release? Articles state that potential release date is fiscal year 2025, so end of 2024-early 2025. I want to enter a long position because I believe the stock will slowly rise up until the game is dropped + rumors that the game will break revenue records. I was thinking of grabbing 2025 LEAPS, or a bunch of shares and holding them. Should I wait until more news is announced about the game, or does this buy-and-hold plan sound fine? Also, buy stocks or LEAPS for this?

2023-07-24

507

Payrolls rose 339,000 in May, much better than expected in resilient labor market

295 comments

2023-05-24

2023-07-24

Vote

⚡️yallo fat plus 63% off 🎉 All unlimited in Switzerland! 3GB Data and 300 min calls in EU, USA & CAN

https://alb.reddit.com/cr?za=phunYlAEWdiu1KlH1r4gxUDY9xRH4HsWL-M6cOL8y4CXtRD7fwh_9O4dgHbYAHYjpEXZ5-EmkYtPIJ-rQcNakoOEocglH1-kMtBWcC_AASB7prPAUk4I63Ll44ATOf36gJaCVwKsbUAjnNdcFTXB_P25nEdupqW0PmO9WhDCtjRzQ3n2O4AGUXc5LYx4fzMvs-FmxE7xozr9NOWosyGBweheuod6CmzmGaFz6EM27b0r0qNinLwLfPeJOJika5SuX1F_zOK-JZyhdDvC06fSgC-ZpE5PoqaHTjxRCJI7U8yvGJb-2GVDkW_edZohw03JNTACPInTZhrOETjnAGRA0korVyDSWxLr_1AvUccygSmLGtrbMZdQsAEqy8QYrE3HyXFXpEHPSEU&zp=eHv10fKA1aYl1gmiKdWBkK3n__Nbp_v0adFoZZu3lxtMTUzhOaOxpHXtYVlBa7sG-pLMNPrOIhgRavGTKrdqT9oELJTZ9Oqjx9VqadkLRf9rbWPGgqbNyjpaIull3QF-rqrcgfgaN5Q64dFnu5OqmcAjAc6jBoChhZsmzNDSNAq47b-UzHOQivyOL7rin8AUkB3UqRWUYKGwLjnwq5T174HTbTmcLEWSVMHWwTqMZz8x6v7u97JqDIfEVnv2h1_FhexJEek-1inn_BVxAdiYYglK

0 comments

2023-07-24

40

Look at this insane valuation of ASTS.

123 comments

2023-05-24

Simply wall street has $ASTS fair value of $774… current price is 5$. They predict their revenue will go from 11.43m to 530m by 2025. They predict their earnings to go from -60m a year to 177m a year. Is this insane? What is your position in this stock? I’m invested but I had no idea some analysts had these projections. What do you think?

2023-07-24

14

High dividend stocks/etf

33 comments

2023-05-24

Hey, so I’ve had my money in VOO/VONG for a while and it doesn’t do a whole lot for me. I got to looking at high dividend etfs, SPYD for example has a 4.50% yield which seems better than letting my money sit in VOO to my newbie brain.Can you explain if I’m thinking the right thing? Or if this high dividend idea is silly. I don’t buy/sell much within my Roth IRA, so I was thinking this might create some extra growth.

2023-07-24

0

Anyone trading the boycott stocks?

86 comments

2023-05-24

Looking at future positions in Target, AB, and now Brown-Forman (Jack Daniel’s). Eventually, all boycotts end and these are generally good companies with fairly loyal customers bases and strong balance sheets. Would not mind owning any of them over the long term.

2023-07-24

1

Investment Advice Advice Request

10

2023-05-24

Just started 2 separate investment accounts not long ago: a Roth IRA and an automated investment account, investing in Moderate diversified ETF’s. For my Roth IRA, I’m currently investing in VTI, VXUS, VOO, BND. My automated account I’m investing in SPTM, SPAB and SPDW, with accounting rebalancing occurring once every quarter. My question is: Is this a solid, balanced investment portfolio to start with? Should I keep any other stocks or ETF’s on my watchlist? Any tips, advice or insight is SUPER appreciated

2023-07-24

0

What software would you use? Resources

9

2023-05-24

Hi everyone, I am a software engineer looking to build something in the finance/stock space. What type of project should I build? What would you find useful? What is missing from the existing products? Some potential ideas I have been thinking of are: trade alerts stock holdings dashboard/visualisation custom alerts (Ex: notify me when x stock crosses y threshold) Hopefully we can both get value out of it!

2023-07-24

1

r/Stocks Weekly Thread on Meme Stocks Saturday - Jun 03, 2023

0

2023-05-24

The meme stock scheduled posts will now run weekly and post Saturday afternoon and won't be a sticky; you're probably seeing this because automod sent you here! Full list of meme stocks here. This will be updated every once in a while. Welcome traders who just can't help them selves discuss the same exact stock that's been discussed 100s of times a day. I get it, you want to talk about what's popular, what's hot, and that 1.. single.. stock you like.. well here you go! Some helpful links just for you: Previous meme stock threads General discussions The original GME megathread with a ton of useful information Use Finviz for aggregated news on your favorite stock An important message from our mod u/TCGYT regarding meme stocks. Lastly if you need professional help: Problem Gambling: Call/Text: 1-800-522-4700 or chat online now. Crisis Hotline (24/7): 1-800-273-TALK (8255) (Veterans, press 1) or Text “HOME” to 741-741

2023-07-24

0

Ultralong-Range Electric Cars Are Arriving

21

2023-05-24

Ultralong-Range Electric Cars Are Arriving. Say Goodbye to Charging Stops We drove 1,000 miles across two countries without stopping just to charge, thanks to a new class of EVs If you want to experience the future of fully electrified transportation today, all you have to do is buy a $138,000 electric vehicle, be flexible about where you park it at night—and exercise some patience. https://archive.ph/sQArY

2023-07-24

43

New Ocean Update for The Wandering Village

https://alb.reddit.com/cr?za=nmu10QuuyA4nd2fmTGCfgw6DX2A5cd7-7xCC-Z2ln-iamnCGW6BDZDlwv9PpyUCfZju-21Oz0Y13_ajZwMrTDoaEsezk9afQIYNjw_4-fEBqnpBBHV8qQ27h9OBWTn5BClgcHQr3SD8RwIAbM0od2sS_wUWxvVC9mvsmvic0N2VyLTF_jiVlwelnlEjE1QbhKtFOUgEx6k-pvdOk8tEqf9bzxpeWuHEpgm_ZnMEFWJopEeQWetlB-CMRdyC7fFp1RLIoaiEHgjsYa9Ucy7Ym3kCiyPLB02NUHkolWwtRq27RD_IdD-azvOmW5mkga39pk52FX30L3XW1w4os9hrAn6-1wwNcCBQZft1TrE6slLQ5C7ls1WlgJEiw4pC6pKkFTFMx&zp=SwSoGiPxKBdJ-A63gX2Fj3qvo1MBfjqA5RFUYN3ahP2VfwTz5xNHj5Uvx4XSl3JG6U7KiXbA-dChpqsdA4zXXc89c40o3MOftypww5gt0QPygLWjwVfCmI2yejwcDD_0735IwLHu9W5U1wX0W-JXzBaoJCcu2LPIHp6tcVKE6TqlTOnCYB06VxDO2imfEGvEwHgGjF3geeOQIZ0OGYpMcevfLHhZ

14

2023-07-24

20

Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023

10

2023-05-24

Good Friday evening to all of you here on r/stocks! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :) Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023. Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source) The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default. The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session. With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020. Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth. Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated. Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management. “The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.” Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast. This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: (CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!) S&P Sectors for this past week: (CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!) Major Indices for this past week: (CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!) Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close: (CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!) Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: (CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!) Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close: (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) S&P Sectors for the Past Week: (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close: (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close: (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week: (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week: (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades: (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!) (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!) A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore? Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month. The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000! March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000 April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000 (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis. Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year. (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) But what about the unemployment rate? The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else. It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier. A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer. (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue. The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022. (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that. In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it. June Better in Pre-Election Years (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time. June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain). Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time). (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) The June Swoon? Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure. Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower. Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year. (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again. (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year. (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days. From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps. Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start. In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2. (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns. May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread! At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month. Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%. All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each. Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year. (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt? A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt. Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts. The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline: “Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances. Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well. (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average. (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs! Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets. But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation). (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages. (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019. (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher. (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet. Some Good Inflation News While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up. (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020. (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%. On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%). Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%. (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year. (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead- (**T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.*) (CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!) (CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!) (CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!) (N/A.) Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers: Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open: (CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!) Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close: (CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!) Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open: (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!) Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close: (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!) Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open: (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!) Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close: (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!) Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open: (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!) Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close: (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!) Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open: (CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!) Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close: (CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!) (NONE.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.). (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) DISCUSS! What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week? I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead r/stocks. :)

2023-07-24

904

Change my mind: Technical Analysis is complete bullshit Advice

614

2021-07-24

It’s pathetic to me browsing subreddits and seeing post after post talking about how XYZ is forming a double zenith ultra harmonic convergence and is about to break out to the moon when in reality there is no merit to this “pattern” whatsoever and the stock continues to move with randomness. It’s even more pathetic when WSB tries to use TA, something that predicts movement based off of patterns, on GME, a stock that has had a completely unprecedented rise and is solely governed by sources such as news, tweets, hedge funds and market makers. I physically cringe anytime I see “DD” that involves a chart and every time I do see one, I instantly discredit the entire post. There have been many studies that prove the natural randomness of the stock market overshadows any patterns and predictions that could be made and your chance of predicting a stocks movement off of TA is basically that of a coin flip. Fundamental analysis, news and the current trend and sentiment of the market are infinitely more important for predicting a stocks immediate movement than TA could ever be. The only glimmer of credibility I’d be willing to give TA is scalping but even then 90% of daytraders lose money so id say it’s not even paying off for them well in that regard either. What it feels like to me is TA is a “noob trap” that attracts people who are new to the stock market because it makes them feel like they know what they are doing and they want an excuse to just gamble away their money. I’ve noticed a lot of YouTube channels prey off of people thinking they’re some God of the stock market for employing TA and it gives them false credibility when in reality they’re just guessing as much as anyone. Like some fake scam psychic tarot card reading shit. Not really looking for anyone to change my mind, I just had to get this out of my system although I’m curious to hear others’ thoughts. https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lw7z8v/update_gme_broke_through_the_pennant_next_stop_is/ This post gave me a near aneurism.

2023-07-24