translation
dict |
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{
"en": "And Japan is trying to move up there. ",
"ja": "日本は、上昇していきます。。"
} |
{
"en": "And it's the new century now. Health is getting better, United Kingdom, United States. ",
"ja": "新しい世紀が始まり、健康は向上します。、英国、アメリカ、。"
} |
{
"en": "But careful now -- we are approaching the First World War. ",
"ja": "でも、気を付けて。そろそろ、第一次大戦。。"
} |
{
"en": "And the First World War, you know, we'll see a lot of deaths and economical problems here. ",
"ja": "第一次世界大戦です。、多くの死、そして経済問題がありました。。"
} |
{
"en": "United Kingdom is going down. ",
"ja": "英国が落ちてきます。。"
} |
{
"en": "And now comes the Spanish flu also. ",
"ja": "スペイン風邪が流行しました。。"
} |
{
"en": "And then after the First World War, they continue up. ",
"ja": "第一次世界大戦後、発展し続けます。。"
} |
{
"en": "Still under foreign domination, and without sovereignty, India and China are down in the corner. ",
"ja": "未だ外国の支配下、主権がないまま、、インドと中国は、取り残されます。。"
} |
{
"en": "Not much has happened. ",
"ja": "あまり変化はありません。。"
} |
{
"en": "They have grown their population but not much more. ",
"ja": "人口は増えますが、これ以上増えません。。"
} |
{
"en": "In the 1930's now, you can see that Japan is going to a period of war, with lower life expectancy. ",
"ja": "1930年代、これから、日本が戦争に突入していくところです。、平均寿命は短くなります。。"
} |
{
"en": "And the Second World War was really a terrible event, also economically for Japan. ",
"ja": "第二次世界大戦は最悪でした。、日本は、経済的にも打撃を受けました。。"
} |
{
"en": "But they did recover quite fast afterwards. ",
"ja": "でも、急速に復興しました。。"
} |
{
"en": "And we are moving into the new world. ",
"ja": "そして、新しい世界に突入します。。"
} |
{
"en": "In 1947 India finally gained its independence. ",
"ja": "1947年に、とうとうインドは、独立を獲得し、。"
} |
{
"en": "And they could raise the Indian flag and become a sovereign nation, but in very big difficulties down there. ",
"ja": "国旗を掲げ、主権国家になりました。、しかし、大きな問題が残っていました。。"
} |
{
"en": "(Applause) In 1949 we saw the emergence of the modern China in a way which surprised the world. ",
"ja": "（拍手）、1949年に、近代中国が興り、、世界を驚かせます。。"
} |
{
"en": "And what happened? ",
"ja": "何が起きたのでしょうか？。"
} |
{
"en": "What happens in the after independence? ",
"ja": "独立後、何が起きたかというと、。"
} |
{
"en": "You can see that the health started to improve. ",
"ja": "健康が向上しました。。"
} |
{
"en": "Children started to go to school. ",
"ja": "子供は学校に行き、。"
} |
{
"en": "Health services were provided. ",
"ja": "医療が提供されるようになりました。。"
} |
{
"en": "This is the Great Leap Forward, when China fell down. ",
"ja": "ここが大躍進政策で、中国は落ち込みます。。"
} |
{
"en": "It was central planning by Mao Tse Tung. ",
"ja": "毛沢東による中央主権計画でした。。"
} |
{
"en": "China recovered. Then they said, \"Nevermore, stupid central planning.\" ",
"ja": "中国は復興し、政府は言いました。、「無理な統制経済はやめた」。"
} |
{
"en": "But they went up here, and India was trying to follow. ",
"ja": "中国が上がり、インドも続こうとしています。。"
} |
{
"en": "And they were catching up indeed. ",
"ja": "確かに、追いつきつつあります。。"
} |
{
"en": "And both countries had the better health, but still a very low economy. ",
"ja": "両国民の健康が向上しますが、、経済的には底辺です。。"
} |
{
"en": "And we came to 1978, and Mao Tse Tung died, and a new guy turned up from the left. ",
"ja": "1978年になりました、毛沢東が亡くなり、新しい指導者が登場します。。"
} |
{
"en": "And it was Deng Xiaoping coming out here. ",
"ja": "ほら、鄧小平が現れました。。"
} |
{
"en": "And he said, \"Doesn't matter if a cat is white or black, as long as it catches mice.\" ",
"ja": "鄧小平が言うには、、「黒猫でも白猫でも、、ネズミを捕まえさえすればよい」。"
} |
{
"en": "Because catching mice is what the two cats wanted to do. ",
"ja": "ネズミを捕まえることが、、二匹の猫の目的です。。"
} |
{
"en": "And you can see the two cats being here, China and India, wanting to catch the mices over there, you know. ",
"ja": "その二匹の猫とは、中国とインド。あそこのネズミを狙っています。。"
} |
{
"en": "And they decided to go not only for health and education, but also starting to grow their economy. ",
"ja": "医療と教育だけでなく、、経済発展も目指すことにしました。。"
} |
{
"en": "And the market reformer was successful there. ",
"ja": "中国の市場経済化は成功しました。。"
} |
{
"en": "In '92 India follows with a market reform. ",
"ja": "1992年にインドは市場経済に移行します。。"
} |
{
"en": "And they go quite closely together, and you can see that the similarity with India and China, in many ways, are greater than the differences with them. ",
"ja": "この2つの国は、かなり似てきました。、中国とインドは類似点が、多くの面で、相違点よりも多いのです。。"
} |
{
"en": "And here they march on. And will they catch up? ",
"ja": "両国は進んでますが、他国に追いつけるのか？。"
} |
{
"en": "This is the big question today. ",
"ja": "それが今日の本題です。。"
} |
{
"en": "There they are today. ",
"ja": "さあ、現在です。。"
} |
{
"en": "Now what does it mean that the -- (Applause) the averages there -- this is the average of China. ",
"ja": "これはどういうことか？、（拍手）、これは国の平均値で、これが中国です。。"
} |
{
"en": "If I would split China, look here, Shanghai has already catched up. ",
"ja": "中国を分割してみると、、上海は既に追いついています。。"
} |
{
"en": "Shanghai is already there. ",
"ja": "もうあんなところにいます。。"
} |
{
"en": "And it's healthier than the United States. ",
"ja": "アメリカよりも健康状態がいい。。"
} |
{
"en": "But on the other hand, Guizhou, one of the poorest inland provinces of China, is there. ",
"ja": "一方で、貴州は中国内陸の、最貧地域ですが、あそこです。。"
} |
{
"en": "And if I split Guizhou into urban and rural, the rural part of Guizhou goes down there. ",
"ja": "貴州を都市部と地方で分割すると、、貴州の地方は、そこまで下がります。。"
} |
{
"en": "You see this enormous inequity in China, in the midst of fast economic growth. ",
"ja": "格差がとてつもなく大きいですね。、急速な経済成長の一側面です。。"
} |
{
"en": "And if I would also look at India, you have another type of inequity, actually, in India. ",
"ja": "同じようにインドを見てみましょう。、別のタイプの格差がインドには見られます。。"
} |
{
"en": "The geographical, macro-geographical difference is not so big. ",
"ja": "地理的な相違はさほど大きくありません。。"
} |
{
"en": "Uttar Pradesh, the biggest of the states here, is poorer and has a lower health than the rest of India. ",
"ja": "ウッタルプラデーシュ州は、最大の州ですが、、医療、経済面で後れています。。"
} |
{
"en": "Kerala is flying on top there, matching United States in health, but not in economy. ",
"ja": "ケーララ州は、急上昇しています。、健康面でアメリカに追い付いています。、でも、経済はまだまだ。。"
} |
{
"en": "And here, Maharashtra, with Mumbai, is forging forward. ",
"ja": "ムンバイのあるマハーラーシュトラ州は、、前に進んでいます。。"
} |
{
"en": "Now in India, the big inequities are within the state, rather than between the states. ",
"ja": "インドは、州内で大きな格差があり、、州と州の格差はそれ程でもありません。。"
} |
{
"en": "And that is not a bad thing, in itself. ",
"ja": "それ自体は悪いことではありません。。"
} |
{
"en": "If you have a lot inequity, macro-geographical inequities can be more difficult in the long term to deal with, than if it is in the same area where you have a growth center relatively close to where poor people are living. ",
"ja": "大きな地理的格差は、長期的見て、対処が難しくなります。、同じ州に成長をけん引する市があれば、、貧困層も恩恵を被ることができます。。"
} |
{
"en": "No, there is one more inequity. Look there, United States. ",
"ja": "もう一つ格差があります。ここ、アメリカです。。"
} |
{
"en": "(Laughter) Oh, they broke my frame. ",
"ja": "（笑い）、あらら、枠からはみ出した。。"
} |
{
"en": "Washington, D.C. went out here. ",
"ja": "ワシントンDCがはみ出してしまいました。。"
} |
{
"en": "My friends at Gapminder wanted me to show this because there is a new leader in Washington who is really concerned about the health system. ",
"ja": "Gapminderの友達が見せたかったのはこれ。、ワシントンの新しいリーダーは、医療制度に、とても関心があるからです。。"
} |
{
"en": "And I can understand him, because Washington, D.C. ",
"ja": "もっともだと思います。ワシントンの住民は、。"
} |
{
"en": "is so rich over there but they are not as healthy as Kerala. ",
"ja": "とてもリッチですが、、ケーララ州ほど健康状態はよくありません。。"
} |
{
"en": "It's quite interesting, isn't it? ",
"ja": "とても面白いでしょう？。"
} |
{
"en": "(Applause) I can see a business opportunity for Kerala, helping fix the health system in the United States. ",
"ja": "（拍手）、ケーララ州にビジネスチャンスがあります。、アメリカの医療制度改善に貢献できるかも。。"
} |
{
"en": "(Laughter) (Applause) Now here we have the whole world. You have the legend down there. ",
"ja": "（笑い）、（拍手）、世界全体かここに見てとれます。凡例はそこ。。"
} |
{
"en": "And when you see the two giant cats here, pushing forward, you see that in between them and ahead of them, is the whole emerging economies of the world, which Thomas Friedman so correctly called the \"flat world.\" ",
"ja": "ここの大きな猫2匹を見ると、前進してます。、2匹の間に、2匹の先に、新興経済が位置しています。これぞ、、T・フリードマンの「フラット化された世界」。"
} |
{
"en": "You can see that in health and education, a large part of the world population is putting forward, but in Africa, and other parts, as in rural Guizhou in China, there is still people with low health and very low economy. ",
"ja": "医療と教育は、、世界の人口増加の大きな要因です。、でも、アフリカやその他の地域、、例えば中国の貴州のような地方では、住民の健康・経済状況は依然厳しいのです。。"
} |
{
"en": "We have an enormous disparity in the world. ",
"ja": "世界には大きな格差があるのです。。"
} |
{
"en": "But most of the world in the middle are pushing forwards very fast. ",
"ja": "しかし、中間層の国は急速に進歩しています。。"
} |
{
"en": "Now, back to my projections. ",
"ja": "さて、私の予測ですが、。"
} |
{
"en": "When will it catch up? I have to go back to very conventional graph. ",
"ja": "いつ追いつくのか？一般的なグラフで。"
} |
{
"en": "I will show income per person on this axis instead, poor down here, rich up there. ",
"ja": "縦軸を一人当たりの収入にします。、貧困層は下で、富裕層は上です。。"
} |
{
"en": "And then time here, from 1858 I start the world. ",
"ja": "時間軸がここで、1858年から、世界を動かしてみます。。"
} |
{
"en": "And we shall see what will happen with these countries. ",
"ja": "一体何が起きるのか見てみましょう。。"
} |
{
"en": "You see, China under foreign domination actually lowered their income and came down to the Indian level here. ",
"ja": "中国は外国優位の中で、、収入がインドのレベルまで下がります。。"
} |
{
"en": "Whereas U.K. and United States is getting richer and richer. ",
"ja": "英米は、ますます金持ちになっていきます。。"
} |
{
"en": "And after Second World War, United States is richer than U.K. ",
"ja": "第二次世界大戦後、米が英を抜きます。。"
} |
{
"en": "But independence is coming here. ",
"ja": "しかし、ここで独立を果たし、。"
} |
{
"en": "Growth is starting, economic reform. ",
"ja": "成長、経済改革が始まります。。"
} |
{
"en": "Growth is faster, and with projection from IMF you can see where you expect them to be in 2014. ",
"ja": "成長が加速し、IMFの予測によると、これが2014年の姿です。。"
} |
{
"en": "Now, the question is, \"When will the catch up take place?\" ",
"ja": "では、いつ追いつくのか？。"
} |
{
"en": "Look at, look at the United States. ",
"ja": "アメリカを見てみましょう。。"
} |
{
"en": "Can you see the bubble? ",
"ja": "どの丸（バブル）だかわかります？。"
} |
{
"en": "The bubbles, not my bubbles, but the financial bubbles. ",
"ja": "私の丸（バブル）ではなく、あのバブルです。、バブル経済のバブルですよ。。"
} |
{
"en": "That's the dot com bubble. This is the Lehman Brothers doorstep there. ",
"ja": "あれがITバブルで、これがリーマンブラザーズ。"
} |
{
"en": "You see it came down there. ",
"ja": "見てのとおり落ち込みました。。"
} |
{
"en": "And it seems this is another rock coming down there, you know. ",
"ja": "岩がもうひとつ落ちてくるみたいですね。。"
} |
{
"en": "So they doesn't seem to go this way, these countries. ",
"ja": "英米は、もう急速な成長は無理でしょう。。"
} |
{
"en": "They seem to go in a more humble growth way, you know. ",
"ja": "もっとゆるやかな成長になりそうです。。"
} |
{
"en": "And people interested in growth are turning their eyes towards Asia. ",
"ja": "経済成長に着目する人たちの関心は、、アジアに向けられています。。"
} |
{
"en": "I can compare to Japan. This is Japan coming up. ",
"ja": "日本と比較しましょう。日本を登場させます。。"
} |
{
"en": "You see, Japan did it like that. ",
"ja": "日本の成長ぶりがわかります。。"
} |
{
"en": "We add Japan to it. ",
"ja": "日本を加えてみると、。"
} |
{
"en": "And there is no doubt that fast catch up can take place. ",
"ja": "明らかに、、急速に追いついています。。"
} |
{
"en": "Can you see here what Japan did? ",
"ja": "日本はどう成長したのか？。"
} |
{
"en": "Japan did it like this, until full catch up, and then they follow with the other high-income economies. ",
"ja": "急速に経済成長で追いついた後、、収入の高い他国と並びました。。"
} |
{
"en": "But the real projections for those ones, I would like to give it like this. ",
"ja": "しかし、本当にお見せしようと思っていた、実際の経済成長の予想はこれです。。"
} |
{
"en": "Can be worse, can be better. ",
"ja": "悪くも良くもなるでしょう。。"
} |
{
"en": "It's always difficult to predict, especially about the future. ",
"ja": "特に、将来を予測することは常に難しい。。"
} |
{
"en": "Now, a historian tells me it's even more difficult to predict about the past. ",
"ja": "史学者は過去の予測も難しいと言うけど。。"
} |
{
"en": "(Laughter) I think I'm in a difficult position here. ",
"ja": "（笑い）、難しい判断を迫られてます。。"
} |