rlacombe/ClimateX · Datasets at Hugging Face

statement_idx int64 0 8.09k	report stringclasses 3 values	page_num int64 18 2.84k	sent_num int64 0 78	statement stringlengths 13 4.29k	confidence stringclasses 4 values	score int64 0 3	split stringclasses 2 values
7,700	AR6_WGIII	754	21	The theoretical global geologic storage potential is about 10,000 GtCO 2, with more than 80% of this capacity existing in saline aquifers	medium	1	train
7,701	AR6_WGIII	754	42	CO2 utilisation (CCU) – instead of geologic storage – could present an alternative method of decarbonisation	high	2	train
7,702	AR6_WGIII	755	16	Existing post-combustion approaches relying on absorption are technologically ready for full-scale deployment	high	2	train
7,703	AR6_WGIII	755	31	CO2 capture costs present a key challenge, remaining higher than USD50 tCO 2–1 for most technologies and regions; novel technologies could help reduce some costs	high	2	train
7,704	AR6_WGIII	755	37	The potential for such reductions is limited in several regions due to low sink availability, but it could jump-start initial investments	medium	1	train
7,705	AR6_WGIII	756	17	Because CCS always adds cost, policy instruments are required for it to be widely deployed	high	2	train
7,706	AR6_WGIII	756	28	Its long-term role in low-carbon energy systems is therefore uncertain	high	2	train
7,707	AR6_WGIII	758	11	Several technological and institutional barriers exist for large-scale BECCS implementation, including large energy requirements for CCS, limit and cost of biomass supply and geologic sinks for CO 2 in several regions, and cost of CO 2 capture technologies	high	2	train
7,708	AR6_WGIII	759	59	Fossil fuel reserves have continued to rise because of advanced exploration and utilisation techniques	high	2	train
7,709	AR6_WGIII	759	60	A fraction of these available reserves can be used consistent with mitigation goals when paired with CCS opportunities in close geographical proximity	high	2	train
7,710	AR6_WGIII	760	36	The cost of producing electricity from fossil sources has remained roughly the same with some regional exceptions while the costs of producing transport fuels has gone down significantly	high	2	train
7,711	AR6_WGIII	760	49	Owing to climate constraints, these may become stranded, causing considerable economic impacts	high	2	train
7,712	AR6_WGIII	761	4	Oil and coal consistently rank among the least preferred energy sources in many countries	high	2	train
7,713	AR6_WGIII	761	26	The geophysical potential of geothermal resources is 1.3 to 13 times the global electricity demand in 2019	medium	1	train
7,714	AR6_WGIII	762	16	Public awareness and knowledge of geothermal energy is relatively low	high	2	train
7,715	AR6_WGIII	762	17	Geothermal energy is evaluated as less acceptable than other renewable energy sources such as solar and wind, but is preferred over fossil and nuclear energy, and in some studies, over hydroelectric energy	high	2	train
7,716	AR6_WGIII	764	4	Rather than incremental planning, strategic energy system planning can help minimise long-term mitigation costs	high	2	train
7,717	AR6_WGIII	766	13	No single, sufficiently mature energy storage technology can provide all the required grid services – a portfolio of complementary technologies working together can provide the optimum solution	high	2	train
7,718	AR6_WGIII	768	47	TES can be much cheaper than batteries and has the unique ability to capture and reuse waste heat and cold, enabling the efficiency of many industrial, buildings, and domestic processes to be greatly improved	high	2	train
7,719	AR6_WGIII	770	17	At present hydrogen has limited applications – mainly being produced onsite for the creation of methanol and ammonia (IEA 2019c), as well as in refineries.Low- or zero-carbon produced hydrogen is not currently competitive for large-scale applications, but it is likely to have a significant role in future energy systems, due to its wide-range of applications	high	2	train
7,720	AR6_WGIII	774	21	Contextual factors, such as physical and climate conditions, infrastructure, available technology, regulations, institutions, culture, and financial conditions define the costs and benefits of mitigation options that enable or inhibit their adoption	high	2	train
7,721	AR6_WGIII	779	1	However, globally climate change impacts on electricity generation – including hydro, wind and solar power potentials – should not compromise climate mitigation strategies	high	2	train
7,722	AR6_WGIII	779	10	Areas with decreased runoff are anticipated to experience reduced hydropower production and increased water conflict among different economic activities	high	2	train
7,723	AR6_WGIII	780	14	Changing wind variability may have a small-to-modest impact on backup energy and storage needs	low	0	test
7,724	AR6_WGIII	781	13	Climate change will shift the suitable range for bioenergy towards higher latitudes, but the net change in the total suitable area is uncertain	high	2	train
7,725	AR6_WGIII	781	24	The effect of climate change on bioenergy crop yields will increase in high latitudes	low	0	test
7,726	AR6_WGIII	782	1	Peak load may increase more than energy consumption, and the changing spatial and temporal load patterns can impact transmission and needs for storage, demands- side management, and peak-generating capacity	high	2	train
7,727	AR6_WGIII	783	38	Their environmental impacts of renewable energy production are mostly confined to areas close to the production sources and have been shown to be trivial compared to the mitigation benefits of renewable energy	high	2	train
7,728	AR6_WGIII	785	36	High-fidelity models and analyses are needed to assess the economic and environmental characteristics and the feasibility of many aspects of net-zero or net-negative emissions energy systems	high	2	train
7,729	AR6_WGIII	785	43	Configurations of net-zero energy systems will vary by region but are likely to share several common characteristics	high	2	train
7,730	AR6_WGIII	785	46	The precise quantity of fossil fuels will largely depend on the relative costs of such fuels, electrification, alternative fuels, and CDR (Section 6.6.2.4) in the energy system	high	2	train
7,731	AR6_WGIII	785	60	There is considerable flexibility regarding the overall quantity of liquid and gaseous fuels that will be required in net-zero energy systems	high	2	train
7,732	AR6_WGIII	787	4	There are many possible configurations and technologies for zero- or net- negative-emissions electricity systems	high	2	train
7,733	AR6_WGIII	787	17	Based on their increasing economic competitiveness, VRE technologies, especially wind and solar power, will likely comprise large shares of many regional generation mixes	high	2	train
7,734	AR6_WGIII	787	42	Energy storage will be increasingly important in net-zero energy systems, especially in systems with shares of VRE	high	2	train
7,735	AR6_WGIII	788	11	It is technically feasible to use very high renewable shares (e.g., above 75% of annual regional generation) to meet hourly electricity demand under a range of conditions, especially when VRE options, notably wind and solar, are complemented by other resources	high	2	train
7,736	AR6_WGIII	789	15	Several end uses, such as passenger transportation (light-duty electric vehicles, two and three wheelers, buses, rail) as well as building energy uses (lighting, cooling) are likely to be electrified in net- zero energy systems	high	2	train
7,737	AR6_WGIII	789	24	Regions endowed with cheap and plentiful low-carbon electricity resources (wind, solar, hydropower) are likely to emphasise electrification, while those with substantial bioenergy resources or availability of other liquid fuels might put less emphasis on electrification, particularly in hard-to-electrify end uses	medium	1	train
7,738	AR6_WGIII	789	28	Electrification of most buildings services, with the possible exception of space heating in extreme climates, is expected in net-zero energy systems	high	2	train
7,739	AR6_WGIII	789	37	Energy systems that are 100% renewable (including all parts of the energy sector, and not only electricity generation) raise a range of technological, regulatory, market, and operational challenges that make their competitiveness uncertain	high	2	train
7,740	AR6_WGIII	790	7	A significant share of transportation, especially road transportation, is expected to be electrified in net-zero energy systems	high	2	train
7,741	AR6_WGIII	790	8	In road transportation, two- and three-wheelers, light-duty vehicles (LDVs), and buses, are especially amenable to electrification, with more than half of passenger LDVs expected to be electrified globally in net-zero energy systems	medium	1	train
7,742	AR6_WGIII	790	24	A non-trivial number of industry applications could be electrified as a part of a net-zero energy system, but direct electrification of heavy industry applications such as cement, primary steel manufacturing, and chemical feedstocks is expected to be challenging	medium	1	train
7,743	AR6_WGIII	790	67	Costs are the main barrier to synthesis of net-zero emissions fuels	high	2	train
7,744	AR6_WGIII	792	2	Net-zero energy systems will use energy more efficiently than those of today	high	2	train
7,745	AR6_WGIII	792	9	Characterising efficiency of net-zero energy systems is problematic due to measurement challenges	high	2	train
7,746	AR6_WGIII	793	5	Measurement issues notwithstanding, virtually all studies that address net-zero energy systems assume improved energy intensity in the future	high	2	train
7,747	AR6_WGIII	793	13	Net-zero energy systems will be characterised by greater efficiency and more efficient use of energy across all sectors	high	2	train
7,748	AR6_WGIII	793	34	Carbon-neutral energy systems are likely to be more interconnected than those of today	high	2	train
7,749	AR6_WGIII	798	10	Warming cannot be limited to well below 2°C without rapid and deep reductions in energy system GHG emissions	high	2	train
7,750	AR6_WGIII	800	10	To decarbonise most cost- effectively, global net CO 2 emissions from electricity generation will likely reach zero before the rest of the energy sector	medium	1	train
7,751	AR6_WGIII	801	10	Limiting warming to well below 2°C requires a rapid and dramatic increase in energy produced from low- or zero-carbon sources	high	2	train
7,752	AR6_WGIII	801	14	Low- and zero-carbon sources produce 97–99% of global electricity in 2050 in scenarios limiting warming to 1.5°C (>50%) with no or limited overshoot and 93–97% in scenarios limiting warming to 2°C (>67%) (Figure 6.29)	medium	1	train
7,753	AR6_WGIII	809	10	Strong path dependencies, even in early formative stages, can have lasting impacts on energy systems, producing inertia that cuts across technological, economic, institutional and political dimensions	high	2	train
7,754	AR6_WGIII	810	1	These current investments combined with emissions from proposed fossil infrastructure exceed the emissions required to limit warming to 1.5°C	medium	1	train
7,755	AR6_WGIII	810	39	Existing policies and the NDCs are insufficient to prevent an increase in fossil infrastructure and associated carbon lock-in	high	2	train
7,756	AR6_WGIII	810	58	Past and present energy sector investments have created technological, institutional, and behavioural path dependencies aligned towards coal, oil, and natural gas	high	2	train
7,757	AR6_WGIII	811	3	Box 6.13 \| Stranded Assets Limiting warming to 2°C (>67%) or lower will result in stranded assets	high	2	train
7,758	AR6_WGIII	811	16	About 200 GW of fossil fuel electricity generation per year will likely need to be retired prematurely after 2030 to limit warming to 2°C, even if countries achieve their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)	medium	1	train
7,759	AR6_WGIII	811	30	If warming is limited to 2°C, the discounted economic impacts of stranded assets, including unburned fossil reserves, could be as high as USD1–4 trillion from 2015 through 2050 (USD10–20 trillion in undiscounted terms)	medium	1	train
7,760	AR6_WGIII	811	55	Global coal consumption without CCS needs to be largely eliminated by 2040–2050 to limit warming to 1.5°C (>50%), and 2050–2060 to limit warming to 2°C (>67%)	high	2	train
7,761	AR6_WGIII	811	56	New investments in coal-fired electricity without CCS are inconsistent with limiting warming to 2°C (>67%) or lower	high	2	train
7,762	AR6_WGIII	812	13	Natural gas may remain part of energy systems through mid-century, both for electricity generation and use in industry and buildings, and particularly in developed economies, even if warming is limited to 2°C (>67%) or lower	medium	1	train
7,763	AR6_WGIII	813	23	While policy interventions are necessary to achieve low-carbon energy system transitions, appropriate governance frameworks are crucial to ensure policy implementation	high	2	train
7,764	AR6_WGIII	813	44	Well-designed policy mixes can support the pursuit of multiple policy goals, target effectively different types of imperfections and framework conditions and take into account the technological, economical, and societal situation	high	2	train
7,765	AR6_WGIII	814	18	However, comprehensive evaluation of policy mixes requires a broader set of criteria that reflect different considerations, such as broader goals (e.g., SDGs) and the feasibility of policies	high	2	train
7,766	AR6_WGIII	814	32	Potential future policies are difficult to evaluate due to methodological challenges	high	2	train
7,767	AR6_WGIII	816	26	Cost reductions in key technologies, particularly in electricity and light-duty transport, have increased the economic attractiveness of near-term low-carbon energy system transitions	high	2	train
7,768	AR6_WGIII	816	27	The near-term, economic outcomes of low-carbon energy system transitions in some sectors and regions may be on par with or superior to those of an emissions-intensive future	high	2	train
7,769	AR6_WGIII	816	47	The long-term economic characteristics of low-emissions energy system transitions are not well understood, and they depend on policy design and implementation along with future costs and availability of technologies in key sectors (e.g., process heat, long- distance transport), and the ease of electrification in end-use sectors	high	2	train
7,770	AR6_WGIII	817	1	Advances in low-carbon energy resources and carriers such as next-generation biofuels, hydrogen produced from electrolysis, synthetic fuels, and carbon-neutral ammonia would substantially improve the economics of net-zero energy systems	high	2	train
7,771	AR6_WGIII	817	8	Improving efficiency and energy conservation will promote sustainable consumption and production of energy and associated materials (SDG 12)	high	2	train
7,772	AR6_WGIII	818	18	Phasing out fossil fuels in favour of low-carbon sources is likely to have considerable SDG benefits, particularly if trade-offs such as unemployment to fossil fuel workers are minimised	high	2	train
7,773	AR6_WGIII	818	31	CDR and CCS can create significant land and water trade-offs	high	2	train
7,774	AR6_WGIII	819	11	Greater energy system integration (Sections 6.4.3 and 6.6.2) would enhance energy-SDG synergies while eliminating trade-offs associated with deploying mitigation options	high	2	train
7,775	AR6_WGIII	886	3	The rapid deployment of AFOLU measures is essential in all pathways staying within the limits of the remaining budget for a 1.5°C target	high	2	train
7,776	AR6_WGIII	886	6	At the same time the capacity of the land to support these functions may be threatened by climate change itself	high	2	train
7,777	AR6_WGIII	886	8	At the same time managed and natural terrestrial ecosystems were a carbon sink, absorbing around one third of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions	medium	1	train
7,778	AR6_WGIII	886	12	If the managed and natural responses of all land to both anthropogenic environmental change and natural climate variability, estimated to be a gross sink of –12.5 ± 3.2 GtCO 2 yr–1 for the period 2010–2019, are included with land use emissions, then land overall, constituted a net sink of –6.6 ± 5.2 GtCO 2 yr–1 in terms of CO 2 emissions	medium	1	train
7,779	AR6_WGIII	886	14	The rate of deforestation has generally declined, while global tree cover and global forest growing stock levels are likely increasing	medium	1	train
7,780	AR6_WGIII	886	22	AFOLU CH 4 emissions continue to increase (high confidence), the main source of which is enteric fermentation from ruminant animals	high	2	train
7,781	AR6_WGIII	886	23	Similarly, AFOLU N 2O emissions are increasing, dominated by agriculture, notably from manure application, nitrogen deposition, and nitrogen fertiliser use	high	2	train
7,782	AR6_WGIII	887	7	Assisting countries to overcome barriers will help to achieve significant short-term mitigation	medium	1	train
7,783	AR6_WGIII	887	10	Climate change could also emerge as a barrier to AFOLU mitigation, although the IPCC AR6 WGI contribution to AR6 indicated that an increase in the capacity of natural sinks may occur, despite changes in climate	medium	1	train
7,784	AR6_WGIII	887	11	The continued loss of biodiversity makes ecosystems less resilient to climate change extremes and this may further jeopardise the achievement of the AFOLU mitigation potentials indicated in this chapter (IPCC AR6 WGII and IPBES)	high	2	train
7,785	AR6_WGIII	887	15	Poorly planned deployment of biomass production and afforestation options for in-forest carbon sequestration may conflict with environmental and social dimensions of sustainability	high	2	train
7,786	AR6_WGIII	887	16	The global technical CDR potential of BECCS by 2050 (considering only the technical capture of CO 2 and storage underground) is estimated at 5.9 mean (0.5–11.3) GtCO 2 yr–1, of which 1.6 (0.8–3.5) GtCO 2 yr–1 is available at below USD100 tCO 2–1	medium	1	train
7,787	AR6_WGIII	887	17	Bioenergy and other bio-based products provide additional mitigation through the substitution of fossil fuels fossil-based products	high	2	train
7,788	AR6_WGIII	887	20	The agriculture and forestry sectors can devise management approaches that enable biomass production and use for energy in conjunction with the production of food and timber, thereby reducing the conversion pressure on natural ecosystems	medium	1	train
7,789	AR6_WGIII	887	22	Such risks can best be managed if AFOLU mitigation is pursued in response to the needs and perspectives of multiple stakeholders to achieve outcomes that maximise synergies while limiting trade-offs	medium	1	train
7,790	AR6_WGIII	887	26	Integrated responses that contribute to mitigation, adaptation, and other land challenges will have greater likelihood of being successful	high	2	train
7,791	AR6_WGIII	887	28	Globally, the AFOLU sector has so far contributed modestly to net mitigation, as past policies have delivered about 0.65 GtCO 2 yr–1 of mitigation during 2010–2019 or 1.4% of global gross emissions	high	2	train
7,792	AR6_WGIII	887	29	The majority (>80%) of emission reduction resulted from forestry measures	high	2	train
7,793	AR6_WGIII	887	34	To date USD0.7 billion yr–1 is estimated to have been spent on AFOLU mitigation, which is well short of the more than USD400 billion yr–1 that is estimated to be necessary to deliver the up to 30% of global mitigation effort envisaged in deep mitigation scenarios	medium	1	test
7,794	AR6_WGIII	888	5	In addition to funding, these factors include governance, institutions, long-term consistent execution of measures, and the specific policy setting	high	2	train
7,795	AR6_WGIII	888	8	It would also assist in assessing collective progress in a global stocktake	high	2	train
7,796	AR6_WGIII	888	13	To enable a like-with- like comparison, the remaining cumulative global CO 2 emissions budget can be adjusted	medium	1	train
7,797	AR6_WGIII	888	19	These options could support more specific NDCs with 2 Bookkeeping models and dynamic global vegetation models.AFOLU measures that enable mitigation while also contributing to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem functioning, livelihoods for millions of farmers and foresters, and many other Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)	high	2	train
7,798	AR6_WGIII	889	19	Since the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), the share of AFOLU to anthropogenic GHG emissions had remained largely unchanged at 13–21% of total GHG emissions	medium	1	train
7,799	AR6_WGIII	894	1	While there is low agreement in the trend of global AFOLU CO 2 emissions over the past few decades (Section 7.2.2), they have remained relatively constant	medium	1	train

7,700

AR6_WGIII

754

21

The theoretical global geologic storage potential is about 10,000 GtCO 2, with more than 80% of this capacity existing in saline aquifers

medium

1

train

7,701

AR6_WGIII

754

42

CO2 utilisation (CCU) – instead of geologic storage – could present an alternative method of decarbonisation

high

2

train

7,702

AR6_WGIII

755

16

Existing post-combustion approaches relying on absorption are technologically ready for full-scale deployment

high

2

train

7,703

AR6_WGIII

755

31

CO2 capture costs present a key challenge, remaining higher than USD50 tCO 2–1 for most technologies and regions; novel technologies could help reduce some costs

high

2

train

7,704

AR6_WGIII

755

37

The potential for such reductions is limited in several regions due to low sink availability, but it could jump-start initial investments

medium

1

train

7,705

AR6_WGIII

756

17

Because CCS always adds cost, policy instruments are required for it to be widely deployed

high

2

train

7,706

AR6_WGIII

756

28

Its long-term role in low-carbon energy systems is therefore uncertain

high

2

train

7,707

AR6_WGIII

758

11

Several technological and institutional barriers exist for large-scale BECCS implementation, including large energy requirements for CCS, limit and cost of biomass supply and geologic sinks for CO 2 in several regions, and cost of CO 2 capture technologies

high

2

train

7,708

AR6_WGIII

759

59

Fossil fuel reserves have continued to rise because of advanced exploration and utilisation techniques

high

2

train

7,709

AR6_WGIII

759

60

A fraction of these available reserves can be used consistent with mitigation goals when paired with CCS opportunities in close geographical proximity

high

2

train

7,710

AR6_WGIII

760

36

The cost of producing electricity from fossil sources has remained roughly the same with some regional exceptions while the costs of producing transport fuels has gone down significantly

high

2

train

7,711

AR6_WGIII

760

49

Owing to climate constraints, these may become stranded, causing considerable economic impacts

high

2

train

7,712

AR6_WGIII

761

4

Oil and coal consistently rank among the least preferred energy sources in many countries

high

2

train

7,713

AR6_WGIII

761

26

The geophysical potential of geothermal resources is 1.3 to 13 times the global electricity demand in 2019

medium

1

train

7,714

AR6_WGIII

762

16

Public awareness and knowledge of geothermal energy is relatively low

high

2

train

7,715

AR6_WGIII

762

17

Geothermal energy is evaluated as less acceptable than other renewable energy sources such as solar and wind, but is preferred over fossil and nuclear energy, and in some studies, over hydroelectric energy

high

2

train

7,716

AR6_WGIII

764

4

Rather than incremental planning, strategic energy system planning can help minimise long-term mitigation costs

high

2

train

7,717

AR6_WGIII

766

13

No single, sufficiently mature energy storage technology can provide all the required grid services – a portfolio of complementary technologies working together can provide the optimum solution

high

2

train

7,718

AR6_WGIII

768

47

TES can be much cheaper than batteries and has the unique ability to capture and reuse waste heat and cold, enabling the efficiency of many industrial, buildings, and domestic processes to be greatly improved

high

2

train

7,719

AR6_WGIII

770

17

At present hydrogen has limited applications – mainly being produced onsite for the creation of methanol and ammonia (IEA 2019c), as well as in refineries.Low- or zero-carbon produced hydrogen is not currently competitive for large-scale applications, but it is likely to have a significant role in future energy systems, due to its wide-range of applications

high

2

train

7,720

AR6_WGIII

774

21

Contextual factors, such as physical and climate conditions, infrastructure, available technology, regulations, institutions, culture, and financial conditions define the costs and benefits of mitigation options that enable or inhibit their adoption

high

2

train

7,721

AR6_WGIII

779

1

However, globally climate change impacts on electricity generation – including hydro, wind and solar power potentials – should not compromise climate mitigation strategies

high

2

train

7,722

AR6_WGIII

779

10

Areas with decreased runoff are anticipated to experience reduced hydropower production and increased water conflict among different economic activities

high

2

train

7,723

AR6_WGIII

780

14

Changing wind variability may have a small-to-modest impact on backup energy and storage needs

low

0

test

7,724

AR6_WGIII

781

13

Climate change will shift the suitable range for bioenergy towards higher latitudes, but the net change in the total suitable area is uncertain

high

2

train

7,725

AR6_WGIII

781

24

The effect of climate change on bioenergy crop yields will increase in high latitudes

low

0

test

7,726

AR6_WGIII

782

1

Peak load may increase more than energy consumption, and the changing spatial and temporal load patterns can impact transmission and needs for storage, demands- side management, and peak-generating capacity

high

2

train

7,727

AR6_WGIII

783

38

Their environmental impacts of renewable energy production are mostly confined to areas close to the production sources and have been shown to be trivial compared to the mitigation benefits of renewable energy

high

2

train

7,728

AR6_WGIII

785

36

High-fidelity models and analyses are needed to assess the economic and environmental characteristics and the feasibility of many aspects of net-zero or net-negative emissions energy systems

high

2

train

7,729

AR6_WGIII

785

43

Configurations of net-zero energy systems will vary by region but are likely to share several common characteristics

high

2

train

7,730

AR6_WGIII

785

46

The precise quantity of fossil fuels will largely depend on the relative costs of such fuels, electrification, alternative fuels, and CDR (Section 6.6.2.4) in the energy system

high

2

train

7,731

AR6_WGIII

785

60

There is considerable flexibility regarding the overall quantity of liquid and gaseous fuels that will be required in net-zero energy systems

high

2

train

7,732

AR6_WGIII

787

4

There are many possible configurations and technologies for zero- or net- negative-emissions electricity systems

high

2

train

7,733

AR6_WGIII

787

17

Based on their increasing economic competitiveness, VRE technologies, especially wind and solar power, will likely comprise large shares of many regional generation mixes

high

2

train

7,734

AR6_WGIII

787

42

Energy storage will be increasingly important in net-zero energy systems, especially in systems with shares of VRE

high

2

train

7,735

AR6_WGIII

788

11

It is technically feasible to use very high renewable shares (e.g., above 75% of annual regional generation) to meet hourly electricity demand under a range of conditions, especially when VRE options, notably wind and solar, are complemented by other resources

high

2

train

7,736

AR6_WGIII

789

15

Several end uses, such as passenger transportation (light-duty electric vehicles, two and three wheelers, buses, rail) as well as building energy uses (lighting, cooling) are likely to be electrified in net- zero energy systems

high

2

train

7,737

AR6_WGIII

789

24

Regions endowed with cheap and plentiful low-carbon electricity resources (wind, solar, hydropower) are likely to emphasise electrification, while those with substantial bioenergy resources or availability of other liquid fuels might put less emphasis on electrification, particularly in hard-to-electrify end uses

medium

1

train

7,738

AR6_WGIII

789

28

Electrification of most buildings services, with the possible exception of space heating in extreme climates, is expected in net-zero energy systems

high

2

train

7,739

AR6_WGIII

789

37

Energy systems that are 100% renewable (including all parts of the energy sector, and not only electricity generation) raise a range of technological, regulatory, market, and operational challenges that make their competitiveness uncertain

high

2

train

7,740

AR6_WGIII

790

7

A significant share of transportation, especially road transportation, is expected to be electrified in net-zero energy systems

high

2

train

7,741

AR6_WGIII

790

8

In road transportation, two- and three-wheelers, light-duty vehicles (LDVs), and buses, are especially amenable to electrification, with more than half of passenger LDVs expected to be electrified globally in net-zero energy systems

medium

1

train

7,742

AR6_WGIII

790

24

A non-trivial number of industry applications could be electrified as a part of a net-zero energy system, but direct electrification of heavy industry applications such as cement, primary steel manufacturing, and chemical feedstocks is expected to be challenging

medium

1

train

7,743

AR6_WGIII

790

67

Costs are the main barrier to synthesis of net-zero emissions fuels

high

2

train

7,744

AR6_WGIII

792

2

Net-zero energy systems will use energy more efficiently than those of today

high

2

train

7,745

AR6_WGIII

792

9

Characterising efficiency of net-zero energy systems is problematic due to measurement challenges

high

2

train

7,746

AR6_WGIII

793

5

Measurement issues notwithstanding, virtually all studies that address net-zero energy systems assume improved energy intensity in the future

high

2

train

7,747

AR6_WGIII

793

13

Net-zero energy systems will be characterised by greater efficiency and more efficient use of energy across all sectors

high

2

train

7,748

AR6_WGIII

793

34

Carbon-neutral energy systems are likely to be more interconnected than those of today

high

2

train

7,749

AR6_WGIII

798

10

Warming cannot be limited to well below 2°C without rapid and deep reductions in energy system GHG emissions

high

2

train

7,750

AR6_WGIII

800

10

To decarbonise most cost- effectively, global net CO 2 emissions from electricity generation will likely reach zero before the rest of the energy sector

medium

1

train

7,751

AR6_WGIII

801

10

Limiting warming to well below 2°C requires a rapid and dramatic increase in energy produced from low- or zero-carbon sources

high

2

train

7,752

AR6_WGIII

801

14

Low- and zero-carbon sources produce 97–99% of global electricity in 2050 in scenarios limiting warming to 1.5°C (>50%) with no or limited overshoot and 93–97% in scenarios limiting warming to 2°C (>67%) (Figure 6.29)

medium

1

train

7,753

AR6_WGIII

809

10

Strong path dependencies, even in early formative stages, can have lasting impacts on energy systems, producing inertia that cuts across technological, economic, institutional and political dimensions

high

2

train

7,754

AR6_WGIII

810

1

These current investments combined with emissions from proposed fossil infrastructure exceed the emissions required to limit warming to 1.5°C

medium

1

train

7,755

AR6_WGIII

810

39

Existing policies and the NDCs are insufficient to prevent an increase in fossil infrastructure and associated carbon lock-in

high

2

train

7,756

AR6_WGIII

810

58

Past and present energy sector investments have created technological, institutional, and behavioural path dependencies aligned towards coal, oil, and natural gas

high

2

train

7,757

AR6_WGIII

811

3

Box 6.13 | Stranded Assets Limiting warming to 2°C (>67%) or lower will result in stranded assets

high

2

train

7,758

AR6_WGIII

811

16

About 200 GW of fossil fuel electricity generation per year will likely need to be retired prematurely after 2030 to limit warming to 2°C, even if countries achieve their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)

medium

1

train

7,759

AR6_WGIII

811

30

If warming is limited to 2°C, the discounted economic impacts of stranded assets, including unburned fossil reserves, could be as high as USD1–4 trillion from 2015 through 2050 (USD10–20 trillion in undiscounted terms)

medium

1

train

7,760

AR6_WGIII

811

55

Global coal consumption without CCS needs to be largely eliminated by 2040–2050 to limit warming to 1.5°C (>50%), and 2050–2060 to limit warming to 2°C (>67%)

high

2

train

7,761

AR6_WGIII

811

56

New investments in coal-fired electricity without CCS are inconsistent with limiting warming to 2°C (>67%) or lower

high

2

train

7,762

AR6_WGIII

812

13

Natural gas may remain part of energy systems through mid-century, both for electricity generation and use in industry and buildings, and particularly in developed economies, even if warming is limited to 2°C (>67%) or lower

medium

1

train

7,763

AR6_WGIII

813

23

While policy interventions are necessary to achieve low-carbon energy system transitions, appropriate governance frameworks are crucial to ensure policy implementation

high

2

train

7,764

AR6_WGIII

813

44

Well-designed policy mixes can support the pursuit of multiple policy goals, target effectively different types of imperfections and framework conditions and take into account the technological, economical, and societal situation

high

2

train

7,765

AR6_WGIII

814

18

However, comprehensive evaluation of policy mixes requires a broader set of criteria that reflect different considerations, such as broader goals (e.g., SDGs) and the feasibility of policies

high

2

train

7,766

AR6_WGIII

814

32

Potential future policies are difficult to evaluate due to methodological challenges

high

2

train

7,767

AR6_WGIII

816

26

Cost reductions in key technologies, particularly in electricity and light-duty transport, have increased the economic attractiveness of near-term low-carbon energy system transitions

high

2

train

7,768

AR6_WGIII

816

27

The near-term, economic outcomes of low-carbon energy system transitions in some sectors and regions may be on par with or superior to those of an emissions-intensive future

high

2

train

7,769

AR6_WGIII

816

47

The long-term economic characteristics of low-emissions energy system transitions are not well understood, and they depend on policy design and implementation along with future costs and availability of technologies in key sectors (e.g., process heat, long- distance transport), and the ease of electrification in end-use sectors

high

2

train

7,770

AR6_WGIII

817

1

Advances in low-carbon energy resources and carriers such as next-generation biofuels, hydrogen produced from electrolysis, synthetic fuels, and carbon-neutral ammonia would substantially improve the economics of net-zero energy systems

high

2

train

7,771

AR6_WGIII

817

8

Improving efficiency and energy conservation will promote sustainable consumption and production of energy and associated materials (SDG 12)

high

2

train

7,772

AR6_WGIII

818

18

Phasing out fossil fuels in favour of low-carbon sources is likely to have considerable SDG benefits, particularly if trade-offs such as unemployment to fossil fuel workers are minimised

high

2

train

7,773

AR6_WGIII

818

31

CDR and CCS can create significant land and water trade-offs

high

2

train

7,774

AR6_WGIII

819

11

Greater energy system integration (Sections 6.4.3 and 6.6.2) would enhance energy-SDG synergies while eliminating trade-offs associated with deploying mitigation options

high

2

train

7,775

AR6_WGIII

886

3

The rapid deployment of AFOLU measures is essential in all pathways staying within the limits of the remaining budget for a 1.5°C target

high

2

train

7,776

AR6_WGIII

886

6

At the same time the capacity of the land to support these functions may be threatened by climate change itself

high

2

train

7,777

AR6_WGIII

886

8

At the same time managed and natural terrestrial ecosystems were a carbon sink, absorbing around one third of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions

medium

1

train

7,778

AR6_WGIII

886

12

If the managed and natural responses of all land to both anthropogenic environmental change and natural climate variability, estimated to be a gross sink of –12.5 ± 3.2 GtCO 2 yr–1 for the period 2010–2019, are included with land use emissions, then land overall, constituted a net sink of –6.6 ± 5.2 GtCO 2 yr–1 in terms of CO 2 emissions

medium

1

train

7,779

AR6_WGIII

886

14

The rate of deforestation has generally declined, while global tree cover and global forest growing stock levels are likely increasing

medium

1

train

7,780

AR6_WGIII

886

22

AFOLU CH 4 emissions continue to increase (high confidence), the main source of which is enteric fermentation from ruminant animals

high

2

train

7,781

AR6_WGIII

886

23

Similarly, AFOLU N 2O emissions are increasing, dominated by agriculture, notably from manure application, nitrogen deposition, and nitrogen fertiliser use

high

2

train

7,782

AR6_WGIII

887

7

Assisting countries to overcome barriers will help to achieve significant short-term mitigation

medium

1

train

7,783

AR6_WGIII

887

10

Climate change could also emerge as a barrier to AFOLU mitigation, although the IPCC AR6 WGI contribution to AR6 indicated that an increase in the capacity of natural sinks may occur, despite changes in climate

medium

1

train

7,784

AR6_WGIII

887

11

The continued loss of biodiversity makes ecosystems less resilient to climate change extremes and this may further jeopardise the achievement of the AFOLU mitigation potentials indicated in this chapter (IPCC AR6 WGII and IPBES)

high

2

train

7,785

AR6_WGIII

887

15

Poorly planned deployment of biomass production and afforestation options for in-forest carbon sequestration may conflict with environmental and social dimensions of sustainability

high

2

train

7,786

AR6_WGIII

887

16

The global technical CDR potential of BECCS by 2050 (considering only the technical capture of CO 2 and storage underground) is estimated at 5.9 mean (0.5–11.3) GtCO 2 yr–1, of which 1.6 (0.8–3.5) GtCO 2 yr–1 is available at below USD100 tCO 2–1

medium

1

train

7,787

AR6_WGIII

887

17

Bioenergy and other bio-based products provide additional mitigation through the substitution of fossil fuels fossil-based products

high

2

train

7,788

AR6_WGIII

887

20

The agriculture and forestry sectors can devise management approaches that enable biomass production and use for energy in conjunction with the production of food and timber, thereby reducing the conversion pressure on natural ecosystems

medium

1

train

7,789

AR6_WGIII

887

22

Such risks can best be managed if AFOLU mitigation is pursued in response to the needs and perspectives of multiple stakeholders to achieve outcomes that maximise synergies while limiting trade-offs

medium

1

train

7,790

AR6_WGIII

887

26

Integrated responses that contribute to mitigation, adaptation, and other land challenges will have greater likelihood of being successful

high

2

train

7,791

AR6_WGIII

887

28

Globally, the AFOLU sector has so far contributed modestly to net mitigation, as past policies have delivered about 0.65 GtCO 2 yr–1 of mitigation during 2010–2019 or 1.4% of global gross emissions

high

2

train

7,792

AR6_WGIII

887

29

The majority (>80%) of emission reduction resulted from forestry measures

high

2

train

7,793

AR6_WGIII

887

34

To date USD0.7 billion yr–1 is estimated to have been spent on AFOLU mitigation, which is well short of the more than USD400 billion yr–1 that is estimated to be necessary to deliver the up to 30% of global mitigation effort envisaged in deep mitigation scenarios

medium

1

test

7,794

AR6_WGIII

888

5

In addition to funding, these factors include governance, institutions, long-term consistent execution of measures, and the specific policy setting

high

2

train

7,795

AR6_WGIII

888

8

It would also assist in assessing collective progress in a global stocktake

high

2

train

7,796

AR6_WGIII

888

13

To enable a like-with- like comparison, the remaining cumulative global CO 2 emissions budget can be adjusted

medium

1

train

7,797

AR6_WGIII

888

19

These options could support more specific NDCs with 2 Bookkeeping models and dynamic global vegetation models.AFOLU measures that enable mitigation while also contributing to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem functioning, livelihoods for millions of farmers and foresters, and many other Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

high

2

train

7,798

AR6_WGIII

889

19

Since the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), the share of AFOLU to anthropogenic GHG emissions had remained largely unchanged at 13–21% of total GHG emissions

medium

1

train

7,799

AR6_WGIII

894

1

While there is low agreement in the trend of global AFOLU CO 2 emissions over the past few decades (Section 7.2.2), they have remained relatively constant

medium

1

train